At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Carolina/Atlanta game.  The Panthers have shelved star QB Cam Newton for their final two games of the season and will give backup QB Taylor Heinicke his first two career starts.  Heinicke has thrown just five passes in his NFL career, so it's an understatement to say nobody really knows what to expect from him this afternoon.  However, one thing I do expect is that Carolina's defense will play very well once again today.  Last week, it shut down the high-flying New Orleans offense, and held Drew Brees & Co. to just 12 points.  Nine of the last 11 meetings between these two teams have gone 'under' the total, including all five played here in Carolina.  And games between two losing teams (with win percentages below .450), in the final two weeks of the season, have gone 'under' the total 95 of 152 games (62.5%) since 1980.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Bucs to go 'over' the total.  Tampa Bay has generally played high-scoring games away from home, and low-scoring games at home.  To wit;  Tampa has gone 'over' the total in 13 of its last 16 road games (compared to going under in 14 of its last 18 home games).  I look for that trend to continue on this Sunday, and especially given that the Cowboys have gone 'over' the total in five of their last six home games.  Take the 'over.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals to go 'under' the total.  After giving up 134 points in a four-week stretch from October 14 thru November 4, the Browns defense has played very well, and has averaged just 20.2 ppg over their last five games.  Not surprisingly, four of those five games went 'under' the total.  Additionally, the last five games between these two teams played here in Cleveland have gone 'under.'  And the Browns' final home game of the season has gone 'under' 13-4-1 the past 18 seasons.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills have been awful over the years in their final road game of the season.  Since 1980, they've gone 12-24-2 ATS, including 5-16-1 ATS as an underdog.  That doesn't bode well for them this afternoon.  And neither does the fact that the Patriots have lost back to back games.  Since November 2002, the Patriots are 9-0 straight-up, and 8-1 ATS off back to back losses (with their only ATS defeat being by just 2.5 points).  Take New England.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Miami.  We played against Miami last week, and easily got the $$$ with the Vikings, who blew out the Dolphins, 41-17.  We will once again fade the Dolphins, as they're a horrid 35-65-3 ATS at home when not getting more than 3 points, including just 3-19 ATS when they're off a loss, and favored vs. non-division foes.  Take Jacksonville.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Wake Forest.  The Tigers come into this game off a 56-41 lost at Central Florida in their conference title game.  Meanwhile, Wake Forest put up a whopping 59 points in its season finale at Duke, and defeated the Blue Devils by 52 (59-7).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on a team which just scored 59 against an opponent which just gave up 56 points, and especially since that team has been installed as an underdog.  But favorites (like Memphis), off a loss in which they gave up 44+ points, have covered 86% away from home vs. foes off a win, in which they scored 44+ points.  Additionally, Memphis also falls into 206-138 and 24-5 ATS systems of mine, while Wake Forest falls into a negative 7-29 ATS system of mine based on its blowout win over Duke.  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Ohio.  The Aztecs come into this game off 3 straight losses, including an upset home loss to Hawaii, as an 18.5-point favorite to end the season.  But San Diego State gets a chance at redemption in this game, and has been installed as an underdog vs. Ohio.  I love the Aztecs here, as Bowl underdogs have covered 71% over the past 25 years as underdogs of +13 or less points, if they lost outright as a favorite of -13 or more points in their final regular season game.  Additionally, Underdogs (or PK'em teams) have covered 64% in the post-season off back to back losses, when matched up against foes off back to back wins!  Finally, Mid-American Conference teams (like Ohio) have covered just one of the last seven Bowl meetings vs. teams from the Mountain West Conference, and have failed to cover the point spread by an average of 14.42 ppg.  Take the points with San Diego State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Northern Illinois.  Rod Carey doesn't have many blemishes on his coaching resume.  But Bowl success has eluded him.  Northern Illinois has lost its last five Bowl games (over the previous six seasons), by an average of 25.4 ppg, and they've all been defeats of 7+ points.  Not surprisingly, the Huskies went 0-5 in those five Bowl games.  It will be more of the same this season.  Take UAB to blow out the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over New England.  Since 1980, home dogs from Game 14 forward, off back to back SU/ATS losses, are 93-59 ATS.  Take the Steelers to bounce back off their 3 straight losses.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Last week, the Dolphins won one of the more miraculous games in NFL history, ranking right up there with Pittsburgh's Immaculate Reception (1972) vs. Oakland, and last season's Playoff win by the Vikings over the Saints, when Case Keenum connected with Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard TD pass on the game's final play.  Of course, everyone remembers those historic plays, but it's also important to remember what happened to those teams the next week.  The Steelers, of course, lost to the Dolphins in the AFC Championship game, while Minnesota was blown out by the Eagles in last year's NFC Title game.  Miami's win did place it back in the playoff hunt for this season, but their euphoria should be short-lived, as I expect Minnesota to rout them this afternoon.  Since 1980, NFL road teams in non-division games have cashed just 30% off division upset wins when they were a 6-point (or greater) underdog in that upset win.  Even worse:  if our play-against team (here, Miami) owned a .500 (or better) SU/ATS record, then our negative 30% ATS system crashes to 16% ATS since 1980.  This will be a blowout.  Lay the points with the Vikings.  NFL Non-Division Game of the Month.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Appalachian State.  This New Orleans Bowl game pits the Sun Belt Conference against Conference USA.  We played against Middle Tennessee State in its last game -- the Conference USA Title Game -- which was a horrendous situational spot for it.  Middle Tennessee had just defeated UAB, 27-3, to end its regular season (its fifth straight ATS win, at the time), but then had to play UAB in a re-match the very next week for the Conference Title.  Not surprisingly, UAB upset the Blue Raiders in that revenge match, so Middle Tennessee comes into this game off a loss.  But it's still 5-1 ATS, which compares favorably to Appalachian State's current 3-4 ATS run.  Let's go against Appalachian State tonight, as .500 (or better) Sun Belt teams are a terrible 2-25 ATS as favorites vs. non-conference foes, if our Sun Belt team isn't off a SU/ATS win, and it doesn't own a worse W/L record than its foe.  Take Middle Tennessee.  NCAA Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos over Cleveland.  Last week, the Broncos were upset on the road by San Francisco, while Cleveland won outright as a home underdog vs. Carolina.  Since 1980, NFL home teams have cashed 63% off an upset road defeat if their opponent was off an upset home win.  Take Denver to blow out the Browns on Saturday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Utah State.  The Mean Green have lost their last five games to the point spread.  But I love them to snap their streak this afternoon.  Indeed, since 1980, NCAA underdogs of 3.5 or more points have covered 83% in the post-season if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Additionally, North Texas has covered eight of its last 10 vs. non-conference foes (and 19 of its last 28).  These two conferences (Conference USA + Mountain West) have met eight times in Bowl games over the past six season, with Conference USA dominating -- 6-2 ATS.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Kansas City/Los Angeles game.  The Chiefs have gone 'over' the total in their last three games, while the Chargers have gone 'over' in two of their past three.  And both teams are scoring a lot of points this year, as the Chargers average over 28 ppg, and the Chiefs average over 36 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 'over,' but consider that NFL games between two teams that each average 28+ ppg on offense have gone UNDER the total 64.8% since 1980, if at least one of the two teams played its three previous games 'over' the total.  The 'under' also falls into two other totals systems of mine that have records of 85-43 and 76-36 since 1980.  This game will be low-scoring.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Minnesota.  These two playoff contenders are separated by a mere half-game, as Seattle is 7-5, while Minnesota is 6-5-1.  But, for my money, Seattle is the much more impressive team, as it's played a much more difficult schedule.  Compare Minnesota's home schedule to Seattle's.  Of Minny's 6 home games, four were against creampuffs (49ers, Bills, Cardinals, Lions), and it actually lost to one of them!  Seattle, on the other hand, has played just one weak opponent (49ers) so far at home, but has also played three playoff teams (Rams, Chargers, Cowboys) among its five home opponents.  And, even though Seattle has had a daunting home schedule, it's only lost both straight-up and ATS to one team (Chargers).  Meanwhile, Minnesota has covered just two (Eagles, Jets) of its six road games, though neither of those two opponents will be making the Playoffs this season.  Seattle falls into several of my favorite Monday Night Football Systems, with records of 117-55, 95-52, 80-37, 73-32, 68-28 and 57-21 ATS.  Lay the small number with the Seahawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Los Angeles.  The Rams will try to make it a 4-0 SWEEP over the NFC North teams, as they defeated Minnesota and Green Bay earlier this year at home, and then downed Detroit on the road last week, 30-16.  But winning and covering back to back road games will be difficult for the Rams.  The last time they pulled off that trick was in Weeks 3, 4 in 2016.  Since then, they've played back to back road games four times, but weren't able to win and cover each of the two games in those successive weeks.  I love Chicago in this home underdog spot.  The Bears were upset on the road last week, 30-27, as a 3.5-point favorite by the New York Giants.  But winning teams have cashed a staggering 82% at home the past 39 years as an underdog (or pk) vs. .670 (or better) foes, if our home team was upset in its previous game as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Bears.  NFC Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Dallas.  Last week, the Cowboys upset the New Orleans Saints by a score of 13-10.  And Dallas is now 7-5 this season, and has the NFC East division lead (by 1 game) over Philadelphia, which is 6-6.  Of course, the reason Dallas is one game ahead is because it upset the Eagles earlier this season, 27-20, as a 7.5-point road underdog.  I look for Philly to avenge that defeat, as NFL underdogs have cashed 65.7% since 1980 when playing with revenge from a loss where they were favored by 7+ points.  Lay the points.  NFL Division Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Arizona.  The Arizona Cardinals had only defeated one other team (San Francisco, twice) before it stunned Green Bay on the road last week, 20-17, as a 13.5-point underdog.  So, it was no surprise that the Packers fired head coach Mike McCarthy following that loss.  Can Arizona make it two upset wins in a row?  It's not likely, as teams that won outright as a 13.5-point (or greater) underdog are 1-18 straight-up and 0-17-2 ATS since December 1995.  Detroit, meanwhile, lost 30-16 at home to the 11-1 Rams last week.  But Detroit is a super 35-10-3 ATS on the road off a loss by 13+ points.  Take Detroit. NFL Perfect 10 Club play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers come into this game off back to back upset losses (at Denver Broncos; home vs. LA Chargers).  And the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the AFC North division leaders to bounce back in this critical game.  But winning teams have actually burned money on the road off back to back upset defeats, and especially when they've been favored by a touchdown or more, as they've cashed just 33% since 1980.  Take the Raiders as a double-digit home dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over Denver.  The 49ers return home after getting walloped by Seattle, 43-16, in their last game.  But off that 27-point defeat, I love the Niners to rebound as a home underdog.  Indeed, since 1980, home underdogs have cashed 65% off a loss by 27+ points, if they were playing a .500 (or better) opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  Denver is an awful 22-38-3 ATS on the road off a double-digit win when playing a non-division foe, including 1-10 ATS if that foe failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in its previous game.  Take the 49ers + the points.  NFL Roadkill play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens under the total.  The Chiefs have racked up 37 points per game, which is #1 in the NFL.  But they will find it much more difficult to score on Sunday afternoon vs. this Ravens defense, which ranks #1 in both yards (281.7) and points (17.8) per game.  To wit:  the Chiefs have played only one other team currently ranked among the Top 5 in defensive yards given up (Jacksonville), and that was the 2nd lowest-scoring game (30-14) that KC has played all season, and it easily went 'under' the total.  The Chiefs are 3-0-1 'under' the total in their last four home games, 8-1-1 'under' in their last 10 at home, and 19-6-1 their last 26.  Finally, the 'under' falls into a 59-27 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Indianapolis game.  After giving up an average of 27 ppg in their first four contests, the Texans have played MUCH BETTER defense over their last eight games.  Houston hasn't given up more than 23 points in any of its last eight, and has averaged just 15.8 ppg on defense.  Not surprisingly, five of these eight games have gone 'under' the total.  Last week, Indianapolis completely failed to score in a 6-0 shutout loss to Jacksonville.  And that was the 3rd straight game the Colts have played 'under' the total.  With NFL teams off shutout losses going 'under' in 28 of their last 42 games, I look for a relatively low-scoring game here.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game.  After scoring an average of 43.7 points over their previous four games, the Saints' offense sputtered last week, when it tallied just 10 points, in a 13-10 loss at Dallas.  And that was the 3rd straight New Orleans game that went 'under' the total.  Likewise, Tampa Bay has been playing 'unders' lately, with 3 of its last 4 games going 'under.'  I look for a low-scoring game in Central Florida, as Tampa Bay has gone 'under' in 23 of 30 home games with lines of 47+ points, including 13-2 'under' if the Bucs were installed as a home underdog of 3+ points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into a 163-97 Totals system of mine.  Take the 'under.'

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Washington Eagles minus the points over Cal Davis.  Faithful followers know I love playing on College Football teams that can score.  And Eastern Washington has been doing just that -- in spades.  Last week, EWU put up 42 points in a 42-21 home win over Nicholls State.  And it scored 74 points in a 74-23 blowout win over Portland State two games back.  Then, three games back, it was a match-up against its opponent this afternoon -- Cal Davis.  The two teams entered that game ranked among the Top 10 in the FCS, and Eastern Washington rolled up 669 yards to defeat Cal Davis for the seventh straight time, 59-20 (after trailing 10-0 to start the game).  I don't see much changing, here in Cheney, Washington, this afternoon.  Lay the points with Eastern Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Jacksonville Jaguars snapped their seven-game losing streak last week when they shut out Indianapolis, 6-0.  But with a 4-8 record, it's definitely a case of "too little, too late," as Jacksonville has virtually no chance to make the playoffs.  QB Cody Kessler will make his second start for the Jaguars this Thursday night.  But even though Kessler led the Jaguars to victory last week, he's still just 1-8 as a starter in his career.  And his team will also be facing a much better defensive club in the Titans than it did last week vs. the Colts.  Indeed, Tennessee ranks among the Top 10 in total defense, pass defense and scoring defense.  I look for the Titans to blow out Jacksonville, as losing NFL teams are an awful 9-29 ATS off a home shutout victory, including 1-12 ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points.  Take Tennessee.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Washington.  The Eagles come into this game with a losing record (5-6, .454), and on a 3-game ATS losing streak, after defeating the NY Giants, 25-22.  Meanwhile Washington is a game better at 6-5 (.545), following its 31-23 loss to Dallas.  With the Cowboys leading the division with a 7-5 record, this game is ultra-critical for both clubs.  We'll lay the points with Philly, as defending Super Bowl Champs, not off a SU/ATS win, have cashed 68.9% at home since 1984 against division opponents off a loss.  Even better:  in weekday football games, favorites off back to back ATS losses have cashed 58.2% since 1980.  Finally, no team has performed worse than Washington on Monday Night Football.  The Redskins are 15-39 SU and 16-37-1 ATS on Mondays since 1980, including 2-14 SU the past 11 years, and 0-6 SU/ATS since 2015.  Philly also falls into 61-19 and 91-33 ATS Monday Night Football systems of mine.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Tennessee.  The Jets have lost their last five games -- both straight-up and ATS.  Meanwhile, Tennessee hasn't been much better, as it's off back to back blowout losses.  So, each team will attempt to right the ship on this Sunday afternoon.  We will side with the road underdog Jets.  One of the things I love to do is play on teams that are on long (5+ games) SU/ATS losing streaks, as one often gets good point spread value.  Indeed, NFL teams have cashed 66 of 101 non-division games when they've lost (both SU/ATS) their last five games.  Take the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Detroit Lions/Los Angeles Rams game.  The Rams enter this game off 3 extremely high-scoring games (45-35, 36-31 and 54-51).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, given that Detroit has also gone 'over' the total in a majority of its contests.  But consider that favorites (like Los Angeles) that gave up 100+ points on defense over their last three games, while going over the total in each by at least 5+ points, have then gone 'under' the total 80 percent (24-6) of the time.  Even better:  games involving double-digit home underdogs have sailed 'under' the total 24 of the last 31.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers, at 4-6-1, have their proverbial backs against the wall, as they will need to win their last five games of the season if they are to have a chance at the post-season.  Arizona, of course, doesn't have that problem, as it is 2-9, and won't be playing in January.  The problem for Green Bay has been its defense.  Since shutting out the woeful Bills in Week 4, the Packers have given up 31, 30, 29, 31, 12, 27 and 24 points, for an average of 26.3 ppg over their last seven.  For the season, their number is not much better, at 24.3.  It's dangerous to lay a lot of points with bad defensive clubs, no matter the opposition.  Indeed, since 1980, favorites of -8 or more points, with a defensive ppg. average of 23.67, have gone 39-80 ATS at Game 6 forward.  Arizona's 10-1 ATS its last 11 off back to back losses, if it owned a losing record.  Take the points with the Cardinals.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams have scored 54, 36 and 35 points in their three previous games.  In contrast, the Lions have scored just 16, 20 and 22 points in their last three games — a total of 58 points, or 67 points less than the Rams’ aggregate total of 125 points.   Unfortunately for Los Angeles, NFL teams that scored 123 or more points over their three previous games have gone 0-9 ATS on the road since 2001 vs. opponents off a loss.  Even better:  Detroit's been installed as a double-digit home underdog.  And home dogs of +10 or more points have gone 70-34 ATS since 1982 vs. opponents off a home win.  Take the Lions + the points.  NFL Shocker of the Month!

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins minus the points over Buffalo.  The Dolphins are off back to back SU road losses to Green Bay and Indianapolis.  But they were big underdogs (+9 vs. Indy; +11.5 vs. GB) in those two road games.  That's not the case here, as Miami is favored at home.  Meanwhile, Buffalo enters off back to back upset wins at the New York Jets, and at home vs. Jacksonville.  But before one congratulates the Bills for those two wins, it's worth noting that the Jets are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, while Jacksonville has lost its last 7 games!  Since 1980, NFL home favorites of -3 or more points, off back to back road losses, have covered 72% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  This season, the Dolphins 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS.  But all six of Miami's losses came when they were an underdog of +3 or more points.  When Miami hasn't been an underdog of 3+ points, then it's 3-0 SU/ATS this season, and 10-3-2, 77% ATS its last 15.  Take the Dolphins to blow out Buffalo.  NFL Division Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/Carolina game.  Tampa Bay has played 12 of its last 16 home games 'under' the total, including last week's 27-9 victory over San Francisco.  And since 1980, teams that held their previous opponent to less than 10 points have gone 'under' the total 71% of the time when the line was greater than 54 points.  Even better:  the Panthers have gone 'under' 57-33 when they've been favored by more than 3 points, including 26-9 when playing a division rival.  Finally, the 'under' falls into 162-97 and 55-24 Totals Systems of mine.  This will be a relatively low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Baltimore.  The Falcons are 4-7, and off three straight losses, while Baltimore enters this game off back to back wins.  Of course, their competition had much to do with the results.  Atlanta's last two games were against the Saints and Cowboys, among the league's hottest teams.  In contrast, Baltimore's two wins were vs. the Raiders and the injury-riddled Bengals.  We'll lay the points with Atlanta, as NFL home teams off 3+ losses have gone 92-53 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a double-digit win, if that foe also won two games back.  Take Atlanta.  NFL Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Ohio State.  Last week, the Buckeyes rolled over their rival, Michigan, with a 62-39 upset win.  But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Ohio State on Saturday, as the Buckeyes fall into a negative system which is 0-21 ATS.  What we want to do is play against any 8-point (or greater) favorite off an upset win, if they won that game by more than 10 points, and are now matched up against a .666 (or better) foe.  Ohio State also falls into negative 27-66, 10-46 and 6-40 ATS systems.  Take Northwestern + the points.  NCAA Title Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers + the points over Middle Tennessee State.  The Blazers and Blue Raiders actually met last week (also here in Murfreesboro), and the Blue Raiders won, 27-3, as a 3-point home underdog.  That was also the 2nd straight defeat suffered by UAB, as it lost out of conference to Texas A&M two weeks ago.  I look for UAB to avenge last week's loss, as winning teams have cashed 61% the last 39 years off 21-point (or worse) SU/ATS losses, if they're on the road against a Conference foe off a SU/ATS win.  And if our team is off back to back SU/ATS losses, then our 61% system zooms to 77%.  Take UAB.  NCAA Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Buffalo.  The Bulls are 10-2 this season, while the Huskies are 7-5.  But one team Buffalo has not been able to beat, of late, has been Northern Illinois.  Indeed, the Huskies have won the last 11 meetings, including all 10 since the Bulls joined the MAC in 1999.  (Buffalo did defeat the Huskies once, back in 1968).  Even worse for the Bulls:  in the MAC Conference Championship games, teams with a win percentage greater than .800 have gone 1-10 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage of .800 (or less).  Finally, Northern Illinois enters this game off back to back upset losses, including a 28-21 defeat at Western Michigan 10 days ago.  But NCAA teams off road upset losses have cashed 64% in Conference Title games.  Take Northern Illinois + the points.  NCAA Football Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over New Orleans. The Saints have won their last 10 games.  Even more improbably, they've covered the point spread in their last nine.  Even with 9 ATS wins in a row, they're far away from the 14 straight games that the Patriots covered up until getting blown out by the Bears in the Super Bowl 33 seasons ago.  Tonight, they'll face the Cowboys.  And while Dallas isn't on a 9-game SU/ATS win streak, it is playing well, and is on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  And home underdogs (or PK) on a 3-game (or better) SU/ATS win streak are 49-33-1 ATS since 1980.  Meanwhile, road favorites (or PK) on a 5-game (or better) win streak are 12-22 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win.  The Saints also fall into negative 24-69, 4-17 and 38-68 ATS systems based on its recent results.  Take Dallas + the points.  NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers snatched victory from the jaws of defeat last week, in Jacksonville.  But the Jags have been in a death spiral, with six straight losses.  Denver, on the other hand, comes into this game off an upset win over the LA Chargers, and have covered four of their last five.  Denver's also 31-17-3 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 24-11-1 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Finally, teams (like Pittsburgh) on a 6-game (or better) win streak, have been poor on the road as favorites vs. non-division foes, going 33-54 ATS since 1980.  Take the Broncos.  AFC Conference Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Notre Dame.  The Trojans are off back to back SU/ATS losses, but they're an incredible 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if they also lost 2 games back.  Grab the points with the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Texas San Antonio.  The Roadrunners have scored a sum total of 10 points over their last three games.  Unfortunately for the Roadrunners, home underdogs have cashed just 38 of 116 games over the past 24 years if they didn't score more than 23 points over their three previous games (and just 1 of 13 if they didn't score more than 10).  Lay the big number with North Texas.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas State.  This is a major revenge spot for Iowa State, which has lost the last 10 meetings to KSU.  And the Cyclones fall into a 64-34 ATS revenge angle of mine which plays on certain big favorites with revenge.  Additionally, the Cyclones are 7-1 ATS off a road loss, while K-State is a poor 1-5 ATS off an upset win over a Big 12 Conference rival.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Northwestern.  Last week, Illinois was thoroughly embarrassed by Iowa, in a 63-0 beatdown.  But off that whitewash, I look for Illinois to bounce back in their final game of the season.  Indeed, since 1998, teams that failed to cover the point spread by 35+ points in their penultimate game of the season, have rebounded to cash 68% in their final game.  Take Illinois.  Big 10 Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Hurricanes were 10-0 last season, and ranked #2 in the country, when they went into Pittsburgh last season.  The Panthers roiled Miami's season with a 24-14 upset win.  The 'Canes then proceeded to lose their next two games, as well, including the ACC Title game to Clemson, and the Orange Bowl vs. Wisconsin.  This season, it's Pittsburgh which has ACC Championship hopes, as the Panthers will play Clemson in the ACC Title game next week.  So, even if Miami wins today, the Panthers can still win the Conference next week.  Regardless, I love Miami in this revenge match, as the 'Canes fall into a 53-27 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that were winning clubs the previous season.  Even worse for Pitt:  It's covered its last six games, and falls into a 51-23 ATS "Last Road Game" system of mine which goes against certain teams off ATS wins.  Lay the points with Miami.  NCAA Payback Payday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over the Georgia Southern Eagles.  The Panthers have lost their last six games SU and their last five games ATS.  But Georgia State falls into a 99-58 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off SU/ATS losses vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  Moreover, teams on a 5-game (or worse) point spread losing streak have gone 42-13 their last 55 vs. opponents on a point spread win streak (and home teams have gone 24-5 ATS their last 29 in this situation)!  Take the Panthers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights have won their last 23 games, dating back to last season, while South Florida has dropped four straight (following a 7-0 start).  I love the Bulls as a two touchdown underdog on Friday, as underdogs of +19 or less points have cashed 67.5% since 1980 in their final home game of the season, if they were playing a conference foe off back to back wins.  Take the Bulls as the home dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over East Carolina.  Cincy was blown out, 38-13, last week by Central Florida.  But I love them to bounce back as a double-digit home favorite today, on Friday.  Indeed, since 1988, teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 66.0% if they were favored by 16+ points, and lost their previous game by 16+ points.  Lay the points with the Bearcats.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers have won their last two games, but each of those were at home.  And the Huskers were favored in both games.  Now, they have to travel to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes in Iowa's final home game of the season.  And Nebraska's an ugly 0-13 SU and 3-9-13 ATS as road underdogs of +3 or more points off back to back wins as a favorite.  The Hawkeyes exploded for 63 points last week, in a 63-0 win at Illinois.  And single-digit home favorites (or PK) have covered 62.8% since 1980 after scoring 60+ points in a win the previous week.  Take Iowa.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans, as Atlanta falls into my best NFL system, which is 216-128 ATS.  That angle is 4-1 this season, though it did lose last week on the Eagles against these Saints.  New Orleans made a mockery of the defending Super Bowl champs last week, with a 48-7 blowout win.  I'll go against the Saints as a double-digit favorite, as NFL teams that scored more than 85 points over their two previous games have cashed just 31% since 1980 vs. foes that weren't off an ATS win, including an awful 0-12 ATS in division contests against revenge-minded opponents.  With Atlanta off an upset loss to Dallas last week, and also playing with revenge from a 43-37 loss to the Saints in September, we'll grab the points with Matt Ryan & Co.  Take the Falcons.  NFL Division Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons 'UNDER' the total.  Both of these teams went UNDER the total last week.  And division games have gone UNDER the total 161-118-2 when both teams went 'under' in their previous game, the line was 43+ points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into 70-36 and 79-43 Totals systems of mine.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels + the points over Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs blew out Arkansas, 52-6, last week, while their rival, Ole Miss, lost its fifth straight to the point spread, 36-29, at Vanderbilt.  But the point spread has taken into account the poor play of Ole Miss, and it's already moved four points higher from the opening number on Sunday.  We'll grab the points with the underdog, as we note that .200 (or better) home underdogs of +19 or less points have cashed 76% off 5+ ATS defeats, if they were playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  Take the points with the Rebels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our NFC NORTH DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the 'under' in the Chicago/Detroit game.  These two teams met just 11 days ago in Chicago.  The Bears won a high-scoring contest, 34-22, as a 7-point favorite.  In the NFL, when two teams met two games back, and played a high-scoring game that went 'over' the total, the rematch has gone 'under' the total 58% of the time.  The Under also falls into a 158-97 Totals System of mine.  Take the Bears and Lions UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City.  This is the most anticipated Monday Night NFL game of the season, as it pits the 9-1 Chiefs vs. the 9-1 Rams.  If history is any indication, the homestanding Rams will get the victory.  First, in weekday (Monday/Thursday) games between teams with .715 (or better) records (at Game 7 forward), the favorites have gone 18-2 SU and 16-2-2 ATS since 1987.  And, second, in Monday Night games since 1980, .430 (or better) home teams have gone 95-52-4 ATS off a win, if they were playing a non-division foe.  It's true that the underdog Chiefs have won 4 straight games, while the Rams have lost their last three to the point spread.  But the point spread has also started to catch up with Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs, as they've lost two of their last three to the spread.  And NFL teams, like Kansas City, off 4+ wins, and an ATS loss in their previous game, are an awful 15.7% ATS vs. non-division foes off 3+ ATS losses.  Finally, the Chiefs also fall into negative 2-17 and 27-57 ATS systems of mine that play against certain NFL underdogs off wins.  Take Los Angeles.  Monday Night Football Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over New Orleans.  The Eagles were upset by the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night, as a 7.5-point favorite.  We had a play on the Cowboys, so that result didn't surprise us.  But off that upset loss, we'll look for Philly to bounce back on the road, at New Orleans, on Sunday.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champions have cashed 82.6% over the last 39 seasons on the road off a loss, if they weren't favored by 2+ points, and their opponent was off a point spread win!  Even better:  if our defending Champs were off an UPSET loss, then our 82.6% ATS angle zooms to a perfect 16-0-2 ATS.  Additionally, the Eagles fall into 154-68, 224-118 and 101-45 ATS systems of mine.  Take Philly. 5* NFL Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Arizona/Oakland game.  Both of these two teams have been hemorrhaging points on defense.  In their last four games, the Raiders have given up 27, 42, 34 and 20 points (30.75 ppg), while Arizona has given up 27, 45, 15 and 26 points (28.25 ppg).  The over falls into 79-56, 110-73 and 159-108 systems of mine.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Arizona.  This match-up is obviously one between two very bad teams.  Oakland is 1-8, after dropping a 20-6 home game to the Chargers, while Arizona is 2-7 following its 26-14 loss at Kansas City.  Certainly, I won't be able to extol any of Oakland's virtues (because there are none).  Instead, I will just submit that it's dangerous in the NFL to lay points with bad teams, like Arizona.  And that's even if their opponent is equally bad, or worse (as is Oakland).  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 8 forward, NFL home favorites of more than 2 points, with a .225 (or worse) win percentage, have covered just 36 of 99 games, including just four of 18 games if their opponent had less than two wins on the season.  The Raiders also fall into a 66-37 and 106-55 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks, as well as 65-29 and 115-68 ATS angles that play on certain teams that failed to score 10 points in their previous game.  Take Oakland.  NFL Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Dallas.  Last week, the Cowboys upset the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, 27-20, as a 7.5-point underdog.  But off that upset win, let’s fade the Cowboys in Atlanta.  For technical support, consider that teams that pulled upset wins over the defending Super Bowl Champs, and covered the point spread by 14 or more points in that upset win, have gone 6-18 ATS in their next game if installed as a road underdog.  Also, last week, the Falcons were upset as a 5.5-point road favorite by the Cleveland Browns.  But home teams, off upset road losses, have gone 71-43 ATS since 1980 vs. opponents off upset wins.  Take the Falcons minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs + the points over the New York Giants.  Tampa Bay scored just three points last week, notwithstanding the fact it went up and down the field, and amassed 501 yards of offense.  Turnovers, of course, were the primary culprit.  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had three turnovers, which marred a 29-of-41 passing day (for 406 yards).  For the season, Tampa ranks dead last in turnovers, at 25.  The good news, though, for this game is that the Giants rank as the 8th worst team in forcing turnovers, as they've only taken away the ball nine times.  Last week, New York upset the San Francisco 49ers, 27-23, as a 3-point underdog.  But the Giants are a miserable 1-8 ATS off a point spread win.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens to go 'under' the total.  The Ravens have issues at the quarterback position for this game, as starter Joe Flacco is out with a hip injury.  Thus, rookie first-round pick, Lamar Jackson, is going to get the nod, with Robert Griffin III to serve as his back-up.  Regardless, though, of who is going to be under center for Baltimore, I love the UNDER.  Baltimore has played six of its last seven UNDER the total.  And 12 of its last 16 home divisional match-ups have sailed UNDER the total.  The Ravens also have gone UNDER in 20 of their last 24 games that were priced between 43.5 and 49.5 points, including 9-1 UNDER if the Ravens were favored in those games by 4+ points.  The Bengals also will be without their best offensive player, A.J. Green.  Take the Ravens/Bengals UNDER the total.  AFC North Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Tennessee.  The Titans have won their last two games -- both as underdogs -- against the Cowboys and Patriots.  And they've covered their last three in a row (each in the underdog role).  Tennessee is now 5-4 on the season, and will travel to Indianapolis today to take on its AFC South division rival.  The Colts also have been playing well of late, as they're 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, with the primary difference being that they were installed as a favorite (rather than an underdog) in each game.  The Colts are 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 as a favorite.  And they're 21-2 SU and 16-5-2 ATS when favored over a division rival.  Finally, NFL road teams are a miserable 25.7% ATS over the last 39 years after covering the point spread as underdogs in each of their last three games.  Take Indianapolis.  AFC South Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over UNLV.  The Runnin' Rebels upset San Diego St., 27-24, as a 24-point underdog last Saturday.  That was the 2nd biggest upset on the road this season.  Only Oregon State's 41-34 upset at Colorado, as a 26.5-point underdog, was a bigger upset.  Not surprisingly, as a majority of teams do after pulling such upsets on the road, Oregon State failed to cover the spread the next week vs. USC.  Indeed, since 1980, teams off a road upset as an underdog greater than 19 points, have covered just 35% their following game, including a paltry 18% if its opponent was off a point spread loss.  And Hawaii is off an ATS loss, as it fell by 39 points to the Utah St. Aggies two weeks ago, as a 17.5-point underdog.  The fact that Hawaii will play with an extra week of rest certainly won't hurt (Hawaii's cashed 64% at home since 1985 when playing with rest vs. an unrested opponent).  Even worse for UNLV:  it's just 2-14 ATS off a road win over a conference foe.  Take Hawaii.  Mountain West Conf. Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Georgia Southern.  Coastal Carolina comes into this game -- its final home game of the season -- off back-to-back home losses.  But home dogs have cashed 57% since 1980 in their final home game of the season off back to back home defeats.  Moreover, the Chanticleers will be playing, perhaps, their biggest home game ever in their school history this afternoon.  With a win, Coastal Carolina will become bowl-eligible, and will qualify to play in a Post-season Bowl game for the very first time.  With that huge motivation on its side, we'll grab the points with the Chanticleers today.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are 10-0, and ranked #3 in the country.  And they enter this game off a 29-point win over Florida State last weekend.  But College Football favorites of 15 points or less (or PK) have covered just 31.3% away from home since 1980 in the regular season, if they were on an 8-game (or better) win streak, and off a point spread win.  Take Syracuse.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have been a big money-burner in Las Vegas this season, as they're 4-6 ATS, including 2-5 ATS vs. Big 10 Conference foes.  I don't expect things to change on this Saturday, as they will have to play a Maryland club desperate to earn a win in one of its final two games to qualify for a Bowl game.  The Terrapins certainly had hoped to secure their 6th victory of the season in one of their two previous games, but they lost at home to Michigan State, and then last week at Indiana.  The good news, though, for Maryland is that it's 11-2 ATS since 1980 in its last home game of the season, if it's off a SU/ATS loss, and facing a conference opponent (and 7-0 ATS if it's off back to back SU/ATS losses).  Meanwhile, Ohio State has been awful vs. Big 10 Conference foes off back to back losses.  Since 2006, it has gone 5-15 ATS, including 0-7 ATS when priced from -10.5 to -24 points.  Finally, the Buckeyes fall into a negative 40-91 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU/ATS wins.  Take Maryland.  Big 10 Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons pulled off a monstrous upset last week, when they went into Raleigh, and upended the NC State Wolfpack, 27-23, as a 19-point dog.  Unfortunately, they're a horrid 1-12 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a line less than 8 points, if they're off an upset win.  And, generally speaking, teams off upset wins as underdogs of +19 or more points don't do very well in their next game.  And especially not at home, where they've cashed just 30 of 79.  I look for Pitt to cover its sixth straight game today.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Middle Tennessee State.  The Wildcats fall into my favorite College Football system, which is 89-39 ATS since 1980.  And that angle plays on certain NCAA teams off blowout losses (Kentucky lost, 24-7, at Tennessee last Saturday).  That was the 2nd straight blowout loss suffered by Kentucky (it lost, 34-17, to Georgia two weeks ago), which has seen its record fall to 7-3.  But I love the 'Cats to bounce back vs. Middle Tennessee, as SEC Conference teams have covered 68.1% vs. non-conference foes, if our SEC team was off an upset conference loss, and also lost SU/ATS two games back.  Even worse for the Blue Raiders:  they've done very poorly vs. SEC Conference teams.  This season, Middle Tenn was blown out by Vanderbilt (35-7) and Georgia (49-7); last year, it also got drubbed by Vandy (28-6).  Dating back to 2009, it's 1-13 straight up vs. SEC Conference foes, and 4-10 ATS.  Take Kentucky.  Non-Conference Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Boise State.  The Broncos come into this game on a five-game win streak after upsetting Fresno State last week.  Meanwhile, New Mexico has dropped its last five games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the cold Lobos, and bet on the hot Broncos, including a 42-24 defeat, as a 14-point underdog, at Air Force last Saturday.  But since 1980, home teams on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks have covered 67% vs. foes on 5-game (or better) win streaks, if our home team was also off an ATS loss, while our road team was off an ATS win.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis.  SMU enters this game off back to back double-digit wins over Houston (45-31) and Connecticut (62-50).  Off those two high-scoring wins, we'll grab the points with SMU, as it falls into a system of mine which has cashed 63% since 1980.  What we want to do is play on any home underdog off back to back wins, if it scored 90+ points combined over its two previous games.  SMU needs just one more win to achieve eligibility to play in a post-season Bowl game.  With this being its final home game of the season, I expect a supreme effort tonight.  Take the Mustangs + the points. NCAA Football Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  The Huskies have won six straight, and covered their last three.  And this will be their final home game of the season.  They'll welcome Miami-Ohio to DeKalb, a week after the Red Hawks pulled an upset, at home, vs. Ohio U.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Miami, as road teams have gone just 118-162 ATS off an upset conference win the previous week, if they're now playing a conference foe in its final home game of the season.  Take the Huskies.  NCAA ELITE INFO WINNER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bulls are 9-1 this season, yet find themselves installed as an underdog at 6-4 Ohio.  That doesn't bode well, as .900 (or better) teams, at Game 10 forward, have cashed just 20% since 1980 as underdogs in the regular season vs. foes with a W/L percentage less than .643.  The Bobcats also fall into a 251-155 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain high-scoring teams at home (Ohio averages 39.3 ppg), as well as an 80-33 ATS angle.  Take the Bobcats.  MAC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Western Michigan.  Last year the Cardinals lost 55-3 to the Broncos.  Ball State had last week off to prepare for this revenge game.  And, since 1980, rested teams playing with revenge from a 42-point (or worse) defeat are 54-28 ATS, including 8-2 ATS if it was their final home game of the season.  Take Ball State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  This is the 2nd meeting this season between the Rams and Seahawks.  The first meeting was won in high-scoring fashion by the Rams, 33-31.  But since that game, the Rams have gone 'under' the total in three of their four games, while Seattle has gone 'under' the total in all three of its games. Moreover, in division games with over/under lines of 47 or more points, the games have gone 'under' 69 percent of the time if both teams scored 28+ points in the season's previous meeting.  Finally, nine of Seattle's last 11 road games (and 14 of its last 19 road division games) have gone 'under' the total.  Take the 'under.' NFL Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Clemson.  The Eagles are having a special season.  Just three years removed from going winless in ACC Conference play, the Eagles enter this game with their highest ranking (#17) in 11 years, and are 4-1 in Conference games.  Certainly, this is a tall task, as Clemson is 9-0 after blowing out Louisville, 77-16, last week, and ranked #2 in the country.  But home teams with a .700 (or better) conference win percentage are 101-54 ATS vs. foes with a 4-0 (or better) conference record.  And undefeated teams, with a 9-0 (or better) record are a soft 39-64-1 ATS when favored on the road by less than 22 points (or PK), including 4-17 ATS if they scored more than 50 points in their previous game.  Take Boston College.  ACC Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Arkansas.  The Tigers lost last week, 29-0, at home to the Alabama Crimson Tide.  But I love LSU to bounce back on Saturday, as NCAA favorites playing away from home, that lost a home game the previous week, and failed to score 6 points in that defeat, have gone 13-0 ATS since 2004.  LSU is a super 27-15 ATS on the conference road off a loss, including 6-0 ATS off a shutout defeat.  Take the Tigers. SEC Favorite of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Southern Mississippi.  The Blazers are 8-1 SU/ATS this season, and have won/covered each of their last seven games.  If UAB was not at home, I would consider playing against it, as such teams with spectacular SU/ATS records this late in the season underperform away from home.  But at home, they've actually covered more often than not over the last 39 seasons. Instead, we'll go against a Southern Miss team which pulled an upset over Marshall as a home underdog last Saturday.  And double digit road underdogs have covered just 35 of 91 vs. conference foes off a double-digit cover, if our road dog entered the game off a home upset conference win its last time out.  Take UAB.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Florida Hurricanes + the points over Georgia Tech.  Miami comes into this game off three straight upset losses, while Georgia Tech enters off back to back SU/ATS wins.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the ice-cold Hurricanes, and on the red-hot Rambling Wreck.  But NCAA teams off 3 straight upset losses have covered 73% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins over the past 38 years.  Additionally, Miami falls into a 44-15 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that didn't score 45+ points combined in their previous three games (Miami scored just 39).  Take the Hurricanes.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points at Cincinnati.  South Florida opened this season with seven straight wins before losing badly its last two games.  Last week, the Bulls were annihilated, 41-15, at home by Tulane.  And they were blown out two weekends ago, 57-36, by Houston.  And they've failed to cover their last four games.  But we'll still grab the points with South Florida, as .666 (or better) underdogs of 7+ points are 27-9 ATS off 4+ ATS defeats.  Take the Bulls.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Baylor.  The Bears upset Oklahoma State, 35-31, as a 6-point home underdog last Saturday, while Iowa State blew out Kansas, 27-3.  Unfortunately for Baylor, winning teams, off an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) conference home dog, are a poor 25% ATS as road underdogs vs. conference foes off a double digit win.  Take Iowa State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Alabama.  The Bulldogs are 6-3 this season, and own the 5th best defense (tied with Fresno State) in the country, as they're giving up just 12.33 ppg.  Let's grab the points with Mississippi State, as underdogs are 261-187 ATS if they give up less than 13.5 points per game, at Game 6 forward. Take the Bulldogs.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Purdue.  The Boilermakers are having a solid season.  They're 5-4 this year, but, if truth be told, have had a pretty favorable schedule.  The Boilers have played just three of their nine games on the road.  And those three games were against Nebraska, Illinois and Michigan State.  Purdue won the games vs. Nebraska and Illinois.  But those two schools are 6-12 combined this year.  Moreover, Nebraska is 1-10 ATS its last 11 lined home games, while Illinois is 5-14 ATS its last 19 home games.  Not surprisingly, Purdue lost its only tough game on the road, as it fell by 10 points at Michigan State (well, at least, we weren't surprised, as we had a big play on Michigan State in that game).  Minnesota, notwithstanding its 24-point road loss last week, will give Purdue all it can handle, now that it's back home.  The Golden Gophers are 4-1 SU/ATS at home this season, and have won 28 of their last 40 home games.  And the Gophers also fall into an 86-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams (like Minnesota) off blowout losses.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Syracuse.  Last week, the Cardinals were shellacked, 77-16, by Clemson.  That was the most points given up by an ACC school in 23 years, and was the 2nd worst defeat by a team in an ACC Conference game in the last 39 seasons.  It was also Louisville's 4th SU/ATS loss in a row, and the 2nd straight game that Louisville failed to cover by 23+ points.  This last fact will no doubt keep a lot of bettors away from the Cardinals side in this game.  But it shouldn't, as road teams off back to back SU/ATS losses, in which they failed to cover by 20+ points, have actually covered the spread more often than not -- including 34-20-2 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  The Cardinals also fall into a 96-56 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  Take Louisville + the points.  NCAA Football High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers to defeat Carolina.  The Panthers have won their last three games, including back-to-back home wins over Baltimore (36-21) and Tampa Bay (42-28) the past two weeks.  But dating back to December 11, 2005, the Steelers are 18-2 straight-up and 15-6 ATS at home vs. foes on a 3-game (or better) win streak.  Even better:  since 1980, teams off back to back home wins, in which they scored 28+ points, are 4-25 SU and 7-22 ATS in the regular season.  These two franchises have met six times since Carolina entered into the league, and the Steelers have won five, and covered all six.  Take Pittsburgh to defeat Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys were upset by the Washington Redskins in their last game, 20-17, as a 1.5-point favorite.  And NFL teams have covered just 73 of 184 Monday Night Football games if they were off an upset loss in their previous game.  Tennessee, meanwhile, is very well rested following its game in London two weekends ago.  And, since 2015, rested NFL teams have gone 14-2-1 ATS after playing in London, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off an ATS win.  Take Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos over Houston.  The Broncos are 3-5, but have played a murderous schedule.  Four of their eight games were against teams currently in the Playoffs, and they lost (twice) to the once-beaten Chiefs, and also lost to the undefeated Rams, while defeating 5-3 Seattle.  In contrast, the Texans have played just one team (New England) in their first eight games which would currently be in the Playoffs, and they lost SU/ATS, 27-20, as a 6.5-point underdog.  The Broncos are a fantastic 45-18-4 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points.  Take Denver.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Washington Redskins.  The Falcons had high hopes coming into the 2018 season, but got off to a poor 1-4 start due to several close losses by six points or less to Playoff contenders (Eagles, Saints, Bengals).  However, Atlanta was able to right its ship, and won the two games preceding its bye week last week.  So, the Falcons are now 3-4, and sit just one game behind the Seahawks for the final Playoff spot in the NFC.  I love Atlanta to win its 3rd straight game, as rested NFL road teams off back-to-back wins have gone 61-34 ATS if they weren't getting 3+ points.  And the Redskins are an awful 31-71 ATS at home vs. losing teams, if the 'Skins weren't getting 2+ points.  Take Atlanta.  NFC Conference Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs + the points over Carolina.  The Panthers are off back to back upset wins over Philadelphia and Baltimore.  Unfortunately, favorites of 4+ points, off back to back upset wins, have cashed just 19 of 68 vs. .500 (or worse) foes off a SU loss.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Chicago.  The Bills obviously are challenged to score points right now.  They scored just six last week vs. the Patriots, and five the week before that, at Indianapolis.  Even worse:  they gave up 25 and 37 to their opponents in those games.  But I've never been one to shy away from playing on poor teams.  And I won't back off the Bills this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that teams that scored 12 combined points, or less, over their two previous games (and lost each), while giving up more than 55 points combined in those two games, have cashed 21 of 25 when getting more than six points.  And Buffalo's also 41-16 ATS off a home loss, if they didn't cover the spread in that defeat, and their opponent is off a SU win.  Take the Bills.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are the Ravens' biggest rival, so Baltimore always gets up for Pittsburgh.  And this week's game should be especially important to the Ravens, as they're off back to back losses, and now sit outside the Playoff picture (one game behind the Bengals), at 4-4.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have reeled off three straight wins to wrest control of the division lead.  However, since 1980, the Ravens are a fantastic 15-1-1 ATS at home vs. the Steelers, if the Ravens were off a loss, and didn't have a winning ATS record.  Even better:  NFL favorites off back to back losses have cashed 60% since October 25, 1981 vs. foes off 3 wins.  Take the Ravens.  NFL Division Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Buffalo Bills/Chicago Bears game.  The Bills offense is certainly moribund right now.  They've scored just 6 and 5 points in their last two games.  And their 87-point total through eight games is the lowest in franchise history.  Of course, the over/under line reflects Buffalo's ineptitude.  But we're now at the point where there's value in betting on a relatively high-scoring game.  Indeed, over the last 31 seasons, NFL teams that scored less than 12 points combined over their two previous games have gone 'over' the total 97-62.  Take the 'over' in the Bears/Bills game.  NFL Total of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Oregon St.  The Beavers pulled off a stunning win in overtime last week, when it roared back from a 31-3 deficit to defeat Colorado, 41-34.  Oregon State was a 26.5-point underdog in that game, so that upset ranked as one of the 31 biggest upsets of the past 39 seasons.  Generally speaking, I'll look to go against such teams in their next game, as they often will suffer letdowns following such massive victories.  And such teams have been especially weak against .500 (or better) opponents, as they covered just 22% of those games.  It's true that the Trojans come into this game on a 2-game losing streak.  But USC is 7-2 ATS since 2001 off back to back losses.  This will be a blowout.  Lay the points with USC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Last Friday, Louisiana Tech went into Florida Atlantic, and upset the Owls, 21-13, as a 3.5-point underdog.  Can it pull off back to back road upsets?  It's not likely, as double-digit road underdogs have cashed just 38% since 1980 vs. non-conference foes, if they upset a conference foe on the road in their previous game.  Lay the points with Mississippi State.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are undefeated, with an 8-0 record, while Northwestern is just 5-3.  But both teams are equal in Las Vegas, as each has a 4-4 ATS record.  We'll go against Notre Dame, as undefeated teams, with a record of 8-0 (or better), have cashed just 50 of 131 on the road vs. opponents that owned a .500 (or better) ATS win percentage.  Also, Northwestern's a solid 21-8 ATS as a home underdog priced from +7 to +13.5 points.  Take the Wildcats.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes + the points over Arizona.  The Buffaloes were inexplicably upset by Oregon State last Saturday, 41-34, in overtime, after leading the game by a score of 31-3!  And that was Colorado's 3rd straight loss, overall.  Certainly, last week's defeat was a gut-wrenching game, as it matched the largest blown lead in school history.  But I fully expect Mike MacIntyre's men to rebound on Friday.  For technical support, consider that road underdogs of +6 points or less have cashed 64% over the last 38 years off 3+ losses, if they were upset in their previous game.  Additionally, Arizona's a horrid 0-10 ATS since 1991 as a favorite of more than 2 points off an upset win.  Take the Buffaloes.  Perfect 10 Club play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Panthers upset the Duke Blue Devils, 54-45, last week, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  And they'll now try to make it two upsets in a row when they take on the 23rd-ranked Cavaliers, who are on a 3-game win streak.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, road teams off an upset win as a home dog have cashed just 34% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road team wasn't getting more than 10 points.  Take Virginia to blow out Pitt.  NCAA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers to go over the total.  Both of these teams have had defensive issues this season.  Oakland is giving up 31.1 ppg, while the Niners are surrendering 29.5.  Since 1980, in NFL games with lines of 45 or more points, the OVER has cashed 25 of 33 games if both teams had defenses that gave up 29+ points.  Take the over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo.  Ball State was blown out by 38 points (as a 10-point underdog) in its last game.  And it lost by 22 points (as a 2.5-point dog) in its game two weeks ago.  Thus, over its two previous games, it failed to cover the spread by a combined 47.5 points.  But the Cardinals fall into a 64-32 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses by 19+ points.  And Ball State is also 55-26 ATS on the road since Oct. 29, 2005, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +16 to +19.5 points.  Take Ball State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over New England.  One of the more reliable long-term NFL situations has been to play on double-digit home underdogs against opponents off straight-up wins.  Since 1980, they've gone 87-56-2 ATS.  And though there's nothing wrong with such a record, we can improve it by filtering out double-digit underdogs that were non-competitive in their two previous games (failing to cover each by more than 7+ points).  With that filter in place, our 87-56-2 record zooms to 75-38-2 ATS.  And, yes, it's certainly true that Tom Brady's Patriots have been the standard-bearer in the NFL for the last 18 years.  But New England's been poor lately in the role of a big favorite away from home, as they've cashed just 3 of their last 13 when laying 9 or more points (and just 1 of 9 if it wasn't off a loss).  Take Buffalo.  Monday Night Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over the LA Rams.  The Packers had last week off to rest and prepare for the 7-0 Rams.  Immediately before their bye week, the Packers survived a tough game, at home, vs. San Francisco, and won 33-30, as an 8.5-point favorite.  The Packers are just 2-4 ATS this season, but with Aaron Rodgers as their starting QB, they've been extremely profitable.  In his career, the Packers are 94-66 ATS with him under center, including a fantastic 36-20 ATS off a point spread loss (and 9-2 ATS as an underdog).  And Rodgers is also 10-0 ATS if the Packers had a losing ATS record on the season and were playing an opponent off a win.  Take Green Bay.  Perfect 10 Club Play! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Indianapolis/Oakland game.  The Indianapolis Colts' last four games have produced 71, 62, 76 and 42 points.  And they've gone 'over' the total by an average of 15.38 points per game.  Likewise, Oakland's last four games have gone 'over' the total by an average of 2.75 ppg.  Also, the Colts have gone 'over' 28-15-1 in their last 44 road games, while Oakland's gone 'over' 24-12-2 its last 38 home games.  This will be very high-scoring.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City.  This is the 2nd meeting this season between these AFC West division rivals.  In the first meeting, the Broncos actually had a lead after three quarters, but KC came back to win, 27-23 (and covered the closing line of -3.5).  Impressively, the Chiefs are the 21st NFL team since 1980 to not lose against the spread in any of its first six games.  But what's remarkable about KC's ATS win streak thus far is that they are doing it in spite of a very leaky defense.  Indeed, of the 21 teams that were undefeated ATS through their first six games, the Chiefs have -- by far  -- the worst defense.  KC is giving up 26 points per game...but none of the other 20 clubs had a defense which gave up more than 21.16 ppg!  This doesn't bode well for the Chiefs going forward.  And especially not in their games, like this particular one, where they are favored by a large amount.  For technical support, consider that NFL favorites of -8 or more points, that give up 23.67 (or more) points per game, are an awful 35-77-1 ATS at Game 6 forward since 1980.  Moreover, AFC West division teams playing with same-season revenge have gone 113-71-5 ATS since 1980 vs. division rivals that did not have a losing ATS record, provided our revenger was not favored by more than 6 points.  Denver did everything BUT win in the first meeting, back on October 1st.  However, I expect the Broncos to not let this game slip away this time.  Take the points. AFC West Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants over the Washington Redskins.  The Redskins come into the Meadowlands off back to back upset wins, at home, vs. Carolina and Dallas.  And they’ve now been installed as a road favorite vs. a Giants team on a 4-game losing streak.  Unfortunately for Washington, teams off back to back upset wins are an awful 52-77 ATS since 1980 vs. opponents off back to back losses.  Likewise, teams off back to back SU/ATS wins, as well as an upset win in their previous game, are 28-47 ATS vs. opponents off 4 or more defeats.  Finally, New York is a solid 37-21 ATS at home vs. division rivals off a point spread win.  Take the Giants.  NFL Roadkill Play.