At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Pittsburgh/Cleveland game.  This is a critical game for the AFC Playoff picture.  And the victor will be in a very good position to eventually snag the 6th, and final wild card spot.  Last week, the Cleveland Browns had their best offensive day of the season, when they scored 41 points vs. Miami.  And over his last three games, QB Baker Mayfield has been excellent, with seven touchdowns, and just one interception.  Over those three games, the Browns have averaged 27 ppg on offense.  The Steelers' offense has sputtered lately, so they've made a change at the quarterback position, and will start Devlin "Duck" Hodges, the former Samford star (and all-time FCS passing leader, with 14,584 career yards).  Hodges made one start earlier this season, and it was a positive one, as the Steelers went into Los Angeles, and upset the Chargers, 24-17.  I've liked what I've seen of Hodges when he's played this season (both in that start vs. the Charges, and as a relief QB).  And he's a definite upgrade over the erstwhile starter, Mason Rudolph.  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames minus the points over New Mexico State.  The Aggies are 2-9 on the season, while Liberty is 6-5.  So, this will be the final game of the season for the Aggies.  Interestingly, this will be the 2nd time this season that these two teams have played each other, as they met in Las Cruces back in October.  The Flames won that game, 20-13, as a 4-point favorite.  And I look for them to sweep the season series with a blowout win, on Saturday.  It will be Liberty's final home game of the season, of course.  And New Mexico State is an awful 5-15 ATS on the road against a foe playing its final home game.  Even worse:  it's 4-44 straight-up and 16-35 ATS on the road when not favored by 4+ points.  Finally, Liberty falls into my favorite College Football system, which is 91-41 ATS, and plays on certain teams off a loss when matched up against an opponent off a win.  Take the Flames.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Arkansas.  Both of these teams are mired in long losing streaks.  The Tigers are 0-5 SU/ATS their last five games, while Arkansas has lost its last eight games (2-6 ATS).  But in November, the Tigers have been much more competitive than Arkansas, as Missouri's failed to cover the spread by just 8.3 ppg, while Arkansas has failed to cover the spread by an average of 15.16 ppg.  It's somewhat counter-intuitive, but since 1981, losing teams, off ATS losses in each of their last four games, have actually covered 67.7% as big, double-digit favorites.  And Missouri also falls into an 83-31 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses.  Finally, the Tigers are 9-0 ATS since 1986 off 5 straight losses.  Take Missouri.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills are 8-3 on the season, yet have been installed as a big underdog at Dallas this afternoon.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with Buffalo given that it's lost by more than six points just once this season.  But consider that .700 (or better) road underdogs of 5+ points, off back-to-back wins, have cashed just 22.5% in the regular season since 1986, at Game 12 forward.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills today.  Nor does the fact that they're 0-16-1 ATS off back-to-back point spread wins when matched up against a .666 (or worse) foe not off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Washington.  After a promising 2-0-1 start, which included wins over the Chargers and Eagles, Detroit has dropped six of seven games.  Of course, it also must be noted that Detroit's one win in this stretch was against the Giants, who have a losing record, at 2-8.  And, for the season, Detroit's gone 3-1-1 in its five games against teams that currently have a .500 (or worse) record (Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Bears, Giants).  In contrast, Detroit's 0-5 vs. teams that currently have a winning record (Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, Cowboys, Vikings).  That bodes well for the Lions in this game on Sunday afternoon, against the 1-9 Redskins.  As does the fact that losing NFL teams, off back to back losses, have gone 40-15 ATS as road favorites of more than 3 points.  Finally, Washington's 15-31 ATS at home vs. teams that didn't own a winning record.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Boise State.  Both teams come into this game with issues at the quarterback position.  Utah State's Jordan Love suffered an undisclosed injury last Saturday vs. Wyoming, and is questionable for this week.  Likewise, Boise State used its 3rd string quarterback, Jaylon Henderson, vs. New Mexico last week.  Henderson did pass for 3 touchdowns and 292 yards in that game -- a 42-9 win, as a 24.5-point favorite -- to earn Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors.  But it must be said that Henderson's performance came against a Lobos team which is the worst Division I (FBS) team on Boise's schedule this season.  The Aggies, at 5-1 in Mountain West games this year, will be a much more difficult test. Even worse for Boise:  its top defensive player -- Curtis Weaver -- hurt his right leg last week, and also might be in street clothes for this game.  We'll grab the points with Utah State on Saturday night, in its final home game of the season, as the Aggies fall into a strong conference system.  What we want to do is play on Mountain West home teams with a winning record -- both within the conference and overall -- if they're not favored by 6+ points.  Such teams have covered 67 percent, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points in their final home game of the season.  And Mountain West conference teams, regardless of their record, have also gone 41-24 ATS as underdogs in their final home game of the season.  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  We played on Northern Illinois last Wednesday, at Toledo, and got the $$$ with it in a 31-28 victory, as a road underdog.  That moved the Huskies' record to 4-6 on the season.  So, if it wins its final two games, then it will become bowl-eligible.  We'll play on Northern Illinois tonight as a home favorite, as losing teams (at Game 9 forward) have cashed 65.1% since 1980 if they were off a win, and favored at home by 3 (or more) points over a conference foe off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  Northern Illinois has gone 15-2 ATS off an upset win over a conference foe, including a perfect 11-0 when favored by 3+ points.  And Eastern Michigan is a woeful 12-30 ATS on the road off a straight-up win.  Take the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the KC Chiefs/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Kansas City's last three games have each gone 'over' the total, and those three games combined for 171 total points (55, 49 and 67).  But I look for a lower scoring game tonight, as NFL games have gone UNDER 167-117 (59%) since 1980, including 15-4 (79%) UNDER on Monday Night Football, when the O/U line was 47+ points -- provided one of the teams was off 3 OVERS, and its previous three games combined to exceed 160 total points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Chicago Bears game.  Both of these teams enter tonight's contest off a string of relatively-low scoring games.  The Bears' last three games have all gone 'under' the total, while the Rams have gone 'under' in four straight games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low scoring game here, especially since last season's game between these two teams only produced 21 points (Chicago 15 Los Angeles 6).  But, over the last 40 seasons, match-ups between two teams that have each gone 'under' the total in each of their previous three games actually go 'OVER' the total more often than not.  Even better:  the Rams have gone 'OVER' the total in 12 of their last 13 games when they had gone 'under' in each of their four previous games, and they've also gone 'over' the total 33 of 55 games if their opponent was off three 'unders.'  Likewise, since 1980, the Bears have gone 'over' the total 62% of the time if their opponent was off four 'unders.'  Finally, the 'OVER' falls into a totals system of mine which is 61-34 since 1980.  Take the 'OVER.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Minnesota.  Last week, we played on the Gophers + the points over Penn State, and were rewarded with a 31-26 upset victory over the then-undefeated Nittany Lions.  But off that upset win over Penn State, we'll fade Minnesota on Saturday.  For technical support, consider that teams off upset wins over undefeated opponents (that hadn't lost through at least their first 7 games) have had letdowns the following week, and especially on the road where they've covered just 38.0%.  But that's not the best part.  If our 'play-against' team (here, Minnesota) is now playing an opponent with a .666 (or better) record, then our road teams have covered just 13.3% since 1983.  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs come into this game on an 8-game win streak, and are one game ahead of Southern Miss in the West division race.  Marshall also is in prime contention to make the Conference USA Title game, as it's 4-1 in conference play, and is a half-game behind Florida Atlantic in the East division standings.  We'll take the home team tonight, and go against Louisiana Tech, as unrested underdogs of +3 (or more) points, on a 6-game (or better) win streak, have covered the spread in just 33.9% of their conference games since 1980.  Even worse for the Bulldogs:  they're an awful 4-25 straight-up, and 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of +5 (or more) points off a win.  Take Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Toledo.  The Huskies come into this game off a 48-10 upset loss at Central Michigan.  But off that poor performance, we'll look for Northern Illinois to bounce back tonight.  Indeed, road underdogs off a 37-point (or worse) upset loss, have cashed 75% in Conference games since 1990 vs. opponents off a straight-up win.  Also, Northern Illinois is a super 42-24 ATS their last 66 as road underdogs, including 3-1 ATS off an upset loss.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Buffalo.  The Browns are 2-6 on the season, and lost as a road favorite last week in Denver.  Meanwhile, Buffalo is 6-2, and won and covered its last game -- at home -- vs. the Redskins.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the 6-2 Bills as an underdog, especially given that the Browns have lost their last four games.  But consider that NFL underdogs have covered 0 of 9 games in the 2nd half of the season if they owned a win percentage at least .400 greater than their opponent.  That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that teams off 4+ losses, including an upset defeat in their previous game, have cashed 70% since 2001 when not getting more than 3 points.  Take Cleveland to blow out Buffalo.  Lay the points. NFL Favorite of the Month!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Louisville.  Last week, we played on the Cardinals as a home underdog vs. Virginia, and got the $$$ in a 28-21 upset victory.  But we will switch gears, and go against Louisville on the road this week.  They'll travel to south Florida to take on a 5-4 Miami squad playing their final home game of the season.  And the Hurricanes are returning home after upset road wins at Pittsburgh, and at Florida State.  And I love them to extend their win streak on Saturday, as they've cashed 91% over the last 40 seasons off an upset conference win the previous week.  Additionally, winning teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 58% over the last 40 years off back to back road wins, if matched up against a conference foe.  And, finally, Miami also falls into 191-95 and 125-51 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home favorites off wins vs. foes off an upset win.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Washington.  The Beavers have been installed as a double-digit home underdog notwithstanding the fact that they come into this game off back to back upset ROAD wins (at California and Arizona).  Meanwhile, the Huskies enter tonight's fray off back to back HOME losses to Oregon and Utah.  We'll take the points with Oregon State, as home underdogs of more than 7 points, off back to back wins, have covered 78% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take the Beavers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over South Florida.  Temple dropped its last two games -- both SU and ATS -- which lowered its record to 5-3 on the season.  But .600 (or better) teams have gone 71-49 ATS as a road favorite off back to back losses.  And the Owls are an awesome 73-44-1 ATS its last 118 on the road, while the Bulls are a horrid 12-24-1 ATS at home vs. conference rivals, including 0-7 ATS their last seven.  Take Temple.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  In their last game, the Bobcats went into Muncie, Indiana, and upset Ball State, 34-21, as a 2-point underdog.  Off that win, we'll play on Ohio, as it's gone 8-0 ATS at home off an upset win.  Meanwhile, the Red Hawks come into Athens off back to back upset wins over Northern Illinois and Kent State.  Unfortunately, they're not likely to make it 3 upset wins in a row.  Indeed, since 1980, road underdogs off an upset road win have cashed just 36% vs. conference foes off a win, if our road dog also won as an underdog two games back.  The Bobcats are also a super 11-2 straight-up, and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Red Hawks.  Take Ohio to blow out Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys Under the total.  Each of these two teams come into this game off a string of relatively-high scoring games.  Dallas' last three games have produced 58, 46 and 47 points, while the New York Giants' last three games have generated 49, 48 and 57 points.   The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, especially since the first meeting (in Week 1) between these two teams resulted in a 52-point game.  But match-ups between division rivals -- with Over/Under lines greater than 47 points -- have gone UNDER the total 62% of the time since 1980 if previous three games for each of the two teams resulted in 43+ points being scored.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over New England.  The Patriots are one of two undefeated teams in the NFL.  And they're 6-2 ATS.  But they've benefited from a ridiculously easy schedule.  Only one of New England's previous eight opponents currently has a winning record.  That would be the Buffalo Bills.  And New England didn't cover the point spread in that game, and was actually out-gained in yardage, 375-224, but was able to win because the Bills committed three more turnovers than did New England.  Baltimore will thus be the 2nd winning opponent which the Patriots will face this season.  The Ravens are 5-2, and come into this game off a bye week following their upset win, at Seattle.  That bodes well for them, as rested teams have gone 11-4 ATS as an underdog vs. New England if the Patriots were unrested.  Also, .700 (or better) teams have gone 17-8 ATS vs. New England as a home underdog.  Those team trends are nice.  But I also have many league-wide NFL systems against New England.  For example, .666 (or better) NFL home underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points have cashed 73% since 1980 off a road win, if they're playing an opponent off a home win.  And .666 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 60% of the time (at Week 7 forward) vs. non-division foes.  Admittedly, it's true that the Patriots have won and covered each of their last four games by wide margins (33-7, 35-14, 33-0, 27-13).  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) NFL teams, off 4 straight wins and covers, in which they scored 24+ points in each game, have covered just 30% of the time vs. .666 (or better) foes.   The Patriots win streak will end on Sunday night.  Take the Ravens + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over SMU.  In this battle for American Athletic Conference West division supremacy, we'll side with the homestanding Tigers.  Memphis comes into this game with a 3-1 record in the AAC, one game behind SMU, which is 4-0, and a half-game behind Navy, which is 4-1.  So, this game is a "must-win" for the Tigers if they want to get back to the AAC Championship game in December.  And the Tigers have been a juggernaut at home vs. conference foes, as they've won 10 of the last 11.  Even more impressive is the fact that they've covered 9 straight home conference games -- by an average of 10.04 points per game!  Meanwhile, SMU is a dreadful 2-8 ATS its last 10 road games vs. conference foes, including 0-5 ATS vs. foes with a .400 (or better) win percentage.  And it's also 2-12 ATS in conference road games off back to back conference wins, and 12-34 ATS as road underdogs of +10 or less points (or PK).  Finally, Memphis falls into 82-46, 364-266, 123-73, 184-104 and 66-28 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams with strong offenses (Memphis averages 39.5 ppg).  Lay the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Dolphins are 0-6 on the season, but they've covered the point spread in their last two games.  We stayed away from playing on or against Miami for its first five contests, but stepped in last Sunday and took the points with it against Buffalo (and cashed).  We'll take the Dolphins once again tonight, as winless NFL underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 44-16-2 ATS (at Game 6 forward) on the road vs. non-division opponents.  Also, Monday Night Football underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 22-6-1 ATS.  Take the Dolphins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Indianapolis.  The Broncos were blown out, 30-6, as a 3-point home underdog last week.  But I love them to rebound on Sunday at Indianpolis.  The Colts come into this game off two huge victories:  a 19-13 win at Kansas City, who knocked them out of last year's playoffs, and a 30-23 win over division rival, Houston.  Last week's win moved Indy to 4-2 on the season -- and into first place in the AFC South -- a half-game ahead of the Texans, who fell to 4-3.  But NFL home teams have covered just 32% (at Game 5 forward) over the last 40 years if they were off back to back wins over .666 (or better) opponents.  That doesn't bode well for Indianapolis.  Nor does the fact that favorites off a division win have covered just 42 of 118 games vs. foes off a home loss in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 18 points.  Take the Broncos + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Utah State.  Last year, the Aggies downed Air Force, 42-32, which snapped Air Force's 3-game SU/ATS win streak in this series.  But I love Air Force to avenge that defeat, as it's 9-3-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss.  And this is a huge game for Air Force, as it currently sits one game behind Utah State in the Mountain West's division standings.  And the Aggies fall into a negative 72-123 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams that sit atop their Conference standings.  Last week, Air Force had a nice tune-up for this game when it pasted Hawaii, 56-26.  That was the Falcons' 2nd straight double-digit win, which has triggered a great 69.7% ATS 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any unrested NCAA team off back to back double-digit wins, and back to back double-digit covers, if it was playing at home vs. a conference rival, and not favored by 6+ points.  That bodes well for the Falcons on Saturday.  As does the fact that it's 10-0 ATS the past five years off a 20-point (or greater) win.  Take Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Minnesota. These two teams are obviously heading in opposite directions.  Washington is 1-6 this season, and lost 9-0 at home to the 49ers last week (though it covered the 10-point spread), while the Vikes have won (and covered) each of their last three games.  And over its last two games, Minnesota has had its best offensive outputs (38, 42 points) of the season.  But before one walks to the window and plunks down some $$$ on Minnesota, consider that teams off a shutout defeat at home (like Washington) have gone 69.7% ATS since 2001.  And NFL teams off a win (like Minnesota), who have scored more than 60 points more than their opponent over their two previous games (Minnesota scored 80, Washington just 17), have gone 7-28 ATS if their opponent was off a loss.  Washington also falls into 153-69, 21-3 and 218-130 ATS systems of mine.  Grab the points with the Redskins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over SMU.  Last week, we played on SMU as a 9-point favorite, and got the $$$ in a 45-21 blowout win over Temple, which entered the game with a 5-1 record.  That was a huge win for the Mustangs, as it moved their record to 7-0, and dropped Temple to 5-2.  But off that big win, we'll look for a letdown by SMU on the road on Thursday.  Indeed, over the last 40 seasons, undefeated NCAA teams, with a record of 7-0 (or better), have cashed just 28% on the road following a win (and 14-point cover) over a once-beaten or undefeated team.  Even worse for SMU:  it's an awful 12-33 ATS off a double-digit conference win, including 0-11 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -20 points!  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over New England.  Yesterday, we played on the Washington Redskins as a double-digit home underdog vs. San Francisco, and got the $$$$ in a 9-point loss.  Here, the Jets have also been installed as a large home underdog -- currently ranging from +9.5 to +10.5, depending on one's sports book, as of this writing.  We'll grab the points with the Flyboys, as home underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 83-47-2 ATS vs. foes off a home win, including 35-13-1 ATS if their opponent was also off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  the Jets enter this contest off an upset win over Dallas last week, 24-22, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  And Monday Night home dogs of +2 (or more) points have gone 20-4 ATS off an upset win, including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS since 2011!  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Tennessee Titans/Los Angeles Chargers game.  On the surface, this looks like it will be a very low-scoring game.  The Chargers' last five games have averaged 36.8 ppg, while the Titans' last five games have averaged 10 points less, at 26.8 ppg.  And each of those 10 games have gone 'under' the total.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another 'under' here.  But such knee-jerk reactions are often wrong.  Indeed, over the last 40 years, NFL teams have gone 'over' 65% of the time if one team played its last 5 (or more) games 'under' the total, and its opponent played its last 3 (or more) games 'under' the total, and the Over/Under line was 42 or less points.  And the Titans have gone 57-30 'over' the total after scoring less than 14 points in their previous game, if the Over/Under line in their current game was 42 or less points.  Take the Chargers and Titans 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Arizona State.  After being upset on the road by USC, 30-23, as a 3.5-point favorite, the Utes have righted their ship with back-to-back blowout wins over Washington State (38-13) and Oregon State (52-7).  We played on the Utes last week in their 45-point win over the Beavers.  And we'll come right back with them here, at home, vs. Arizona State, which upset Washington State last week.  Indeed, the Utes fall into a great 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any team which scored 87+ points, combined, in their two previous games, while giving up less than 24 points, combined, in those two games, and is now matched up against an opponent playing away from home off an upset win.  That angle's cashed 77.1% over the past 40 seasons.  The Utes currently have the nation's 2nd-ranked rush defense (2.4 yards per rush; 52.8 yards per game), and 8th-ranked scoring defense (13.1 ppg).  I look for them to shut down Arizona State.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over UNLV.  Last week, the Rebels pulled off a huge upset, when they went into Nashville, and defeated Vanderbilt, 34-10, as a 16-point underdog.  But before one gets too excited about that victory, it also must be noted that Vandy is now 1-5 straight-up, and 0-6 ATS on the season.  UNLV has to stay on the road for this game, and travel to Fresno for this Friday night contest.  Once again, UNLV is a double-digit underdog.  Unfortunately, conference underdogs priced from +3.5 to +18.5 points, off a non-conference win as an underdog of more than 14 points, are a horrid 0-14 SU/ATS since 1990!  Even worse for UNLV:  it generally doesn't put back-to-back good games together, as it's a wallet-busting 27-56 ATS off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, Fresno's 26-10-1 ATS its last 37.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  Arkansas State returns home tonight after playing its last two games on the road, while Lafayette comes into Jonesboro off a home game last week.  That bodes well for the Red Wolves, as Sun Belt Conference home underdogs have cashed 65.3% off back to back road games, if they were off a SU/ATS loss.  Additionally, La-Lafayette has covered just 30% over the last 19 seasons as favorites vs. Conference foes off upset losses, while Arkansas State has gone 42-29 ATS at home vs. Conference foes, including 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 ATS their last 10 with revenge.  And the Red Wolves do, in fact, have revenge, as they lost 47-43 last season to the Cajuns.  Finally, the Rajin' Cajuns fall into negative 84-162 and 40-111 ATS systems of mine after losing, 17-7, at home last week to Appalachian State.  Take Arkansas State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Washington/Miami game.  These two teams have combined to go 0-9 this season, and are arguably the two worst teams in football.  It's true that each team lacks skilled offensive players, which would greatly explain why Miami has yet to score two touchdowns in a game, and why Washington (after QB Case Keenum's injury) has been unable to score twice in either of its two previous games.  Of course, it must also be noted that both teams have played strong defenses this season.  Washington has faced New England, Chicago, Dallas and Philly, while Miami has also gone up New England and Dallas, and played the Chargers and Baltimore, as well.  Thus, today's game is a significant departure for each team, as far as the defense it will face (Washington gives up 30.2 ppg; Miami surrenders 40.7 ppg).  I expect both offenses to move the ball, and for this game to be relatively high-scoring.  Indeed, since 1986, NFL match-ups (at Game 3 forward) between two teams whose defenses have each given up more than 30 points per game have gone 'over' the total 64.2% of the time.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Cincinnati.  We played on the Bearcats last week in their 27-24 upset win over Central Florida.  Although we certainly won't bemoan the result, it's also true that Cincinnati greatly benefited from the four Central Florida turnovers, as Cincy was outgained by 82 yards.  The Bearcats now have to travel to Houston, and have been installed as a road favorite.  Houston also comes into this game off a win, 46-25, at North Texas.  And the Cougars are 30-11 ATS at home off a road win, including 7-0 ATS their last seven.  More ammunition for taking the points with the home underdog:  Houston's won 25 of its last 28 games at TDECU Stadium.  And two of its three defeats were by just 3 and 4 points.  Finally, American Athletic home underdogs, priced from +4 to +12.5 points, have gone 20-5 ATS off a win.  Take the Cougars.  AAC Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New England.  Last week, the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots blew out Washington, 33-7.  And that moved New England to 5-0 on the season.  On Thursday night, they will face the injury-riddled Giants, and have been installed as a favorite of more than two touchdowns.  It's always dangerous to lay this many points in the NFL, as double-digit favorites fail to cover the spread more often than not.  And we will happily take New York with the points in this game.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs have only covered 29% over the past 40 seasons if they were off a 20-point (or greater) road win, and matched up against an opponent off a loss.  And New England's 1-6 ATS when laying more than 17 points.  None of this bodes well for New England here.  Nor does the fact that the Giants are an awesome 25-9 ATS their last 34 when getting more than 9 points, including a perfect 11-0 ATS since December 18, 2004!  Finally, the Giants fall into 71-34, 231-140 and 76-32 ATS systems of mine based on the two teams' statistical profiles.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Syracuse.  The Wolfpack come into this game off an 18-point blowout loss at Florida State twelve days ago.  And they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last three games.  But we will take NC State here, at home, as it falls into a 96-33 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Additionally, the Wolfpack are a perfect 10-0-1 ATS at home off a 14-point (or worse) defeat when matched up against a .500 (or better) conference foe off a home win.  Finally, ACC teams on a 3-game (or worse) point spread losing streak are 59-37 ATS in home conference games, if their opponent isn't also on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing with a week of rest.  Take NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns over Appalachian State.  These two teams met twice last season, with the Mountaineers taking both games by similar scored.  They won in the regular season, 27-17, and then prevailed in the inaugural Sun Belt Conference Title game, 30-19.  But both of those games last season were played at home, in Boone, North Carolina.  Tonight's game will be at "The Swamp," in Lafayette, Louisiana, where the Rajin' Cajuns have won six straight games.  Even better:  the Cajuns are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season, and Billy Napier's men also fall into 36-16 and 20-1 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Finally, Lafayette has scored 77, 45 and 37 points in its three previous games.  And rested NCAA teams on a 3-game (or better) win streak, that have scored more than 150 points over their three previous games, have cashed 81.1 percent since 1980 at home.  Take Louisiana-Lafayette.  SUN BELT GAME OF THE WEEK.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Last week, the Steelers blew out division rival, Cincinnati, 27-3, for their first win of the season.  Meanwhile, the Ravens also played a division rival, Cleveland, but were upset, 40-25, as a 7.5-point favorite.  That was Baltimore's 2nd straight defeat, as it also narrowly lost, 33-28, to Kansas City, which is one of the AFC's top two teams.  I love Baltimore to bounce back off those 2 losses, as NFL teams off an upset loss by more than 14 points have cashed 67% since 1980 vs. opponents off a win by 20+ points.  Also, the Ravens are outscoring foes by an impressive 8.75 points per game.  And the Steelers are 0-7 ATS their last seven at home vs. foes that owned a scoring margin of 5.5 (or better).  Finally, Baltimore is a solid 21-11-3 ATS on the road off a home upset defeat, including a perfect 4-0-1 ATS if it was favored by more than 7 points in its previous game.  Take Baltimore minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Auburn.  The Gators come into this match-up of Top 10-rated SEC teams off back-to-back stellar defensive efforts.  Two weeks ago, the Gators held Tennessee to 3 points in a 31-point victory.  Then, last Saturday, Florida shut out the Towson Tigers, 38-0.  The 5-0 Gators are giving up just 8.8 points per game, yet have been installed as a home underdog in this contest.  We'll take the points with Florida, as home underdogs have gone 67.7% ATS, at Game 5 forward, if their defense was surrendering 13.5 (or less) points per game, and they were matched up against a conference foe with a winning SU and ATS record.  Even better:  Florida's an awesome 65-38-2 ATS in SEC Conference games off back to back double-digit wins, while Auburn's 12-25 ATS vs. Conference foes off back-to-back double-digit wins (including 1-6 ATS if Auburn was favored).  Take Florida + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Central Florida.  The Bearcats are 3-1 SU/ATS on the season, with their only SU/ATS defeat to Ohio State.  Of course, a 42-0 loss to Ohio State is not all that bad, given it was the lowest amount of points the Buckeyes scored all season.  Last week, the Bearcats went into Marshall, and blew out the Thundering Herd, 52-14, as a 4-point road favorite.  Off that 38-point blowout win, we'll grab the points with Cincy in this American Athletic Conference opener for the Bearcats.  Since 1980, .500 (or better) teams have cashed 58.1% in home Conference games off a blowout win the previous week by more than 35 points.  That bodes well for the Bearcats on Friday.  As does the fact that Cincy's 27-15 ATS its last 42 as underdogs priced from +3 to +7.5 points, while Central Florida's 4-12 ATS its last 16 as a road favorite of -3 to -7.5 points.  Take the Bearcats.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Both of these teams come into this Monday Night Football game with an 0-3 record.  And each team lost road games in Weeks 1 + 3, and a home game in Week 2.  But even though the profile of these two teams is similar, the Bengals have been the better team as far as the point spread is concerned.  Cincy is 2-1 ATS, while Pittsburgh is 1-2 ATS.  And the Bengals' point spread differential is 4.5 ppg better than that of the Steelers, while its margin of victory is 2.33 ppg better.  We'll grab the points with the Bengals, as winless home favorites have gone 10-20 ATS in Week 4 since 1983, while winless road underdogs have cashed 25 of their last 36 in Week 4.  Even better:  Monday Night Football favorites of 6 points or less have covered just 22% of the time since 1982, provided their win percentage was less than .300.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars + the points over Utah.  Both of these teams were upset last week.  Wazzu blew a 32-point lead in a 67-63 loss to the UCLA Bruins, while Utah fell to USC, 30-23, as a 3.5-point road favorite.  The silver lining for Mike Leach's Cougars is that QB Anthony Gordon established a school record with nine touchdown passes, and he also threw for 570 yards.  Unfortunately, the Cougars committed six turnovers to aid the Bruins' comeback, which was the 3rd largest deficit overcome in NCAA Football Division 1 history.  I love Washington State to rebound on the road as an underdog at Utah.  After all, since 1981, single digit underdogs off a loss as a double-digit conference home favorite, have covered 66% the following week vs. conference foes.  And Washington State is a solid 16-5 ATS its last 21 as a road underdog, while Utah is a dreadful 18-37 ATS in the regular season as a favorite of less than 12 points (or PK) vs. winning foes.  The Cougars have covered the last four meetings vs. Utah, by an average of 8.9 ppg.  Take Washington State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over California.  The Golden Bears are 4-0 and ranked among the Top 20 teams in the country after last week's upset win at Mississippi.  And that was the 2nd upset win on the road this year for Justin Wilcox's men.  Unfortunately, California has not had the same success in front of their home faithful.  In Berkeley this season, the Bears are 0-2 ATS.  And they're a wallet-busting 5-16 ATS their last 21 when favored by less than 7 points (or PK).  Even worse for California:  since 1980, Pac-12 (or Pac-10) Conference teams have cashed just 13.3% at home off an upset road win, if they were matched up against a .666 (or better) foe off a loss.  Last week, Arizona State fell to 3-1 on the season with a 34-31 upset loss to Colorado, so it qualifies in my 86.7% ATS angle.  And the Sun Devils are also a super 16-3-1 ATS off a loss if their opponent is a Pac-12 Conference rival off a SU win, including 9-0 ATS their last nine as an underdog.  Off last weekend's defeat, we'll grab the points with the Sun Devils to bounce back on this Friday.  Take ASU + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals have been installed as a home favorite, notwithstanding the fact that they're winless on the season, and have covered just five of their last 18 games as a home favorite.  Yes, it's true that Carolina's #1 QB, Cam Newton, is sidelined with a foot injury.  But I don't view this entirely as a negative, as Newton was hampering his team with his horrible play.  In the first two games, he was 50-for-89 for 572 yards, but 0 touchdowns, and one interception.  On the ground, Newton was even worse, as he had 5 carries for minus-2 yards, and two fumbles.  His QB rating is 26.9, which ranks #29 in the league!  So, Ron Rivera's club will turn to Kyle Allen, a second-year QB out of the University of Houston.  Allen made one start last season, and was impressive in a 33-14 road victory over New Orleans.  Allen completed 16 of 27 passes for 228 yards, and accounted for three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing).  That experience in front of a hostile crowd will stand him in good stead on Sunday, and I expect him to play extremely well.  The Panthers fall into several of my favorite NFL systems, with records of 135-63, 156-70, 107-43, 153-74, 63-25 and 40-19 ATS since 1980.  And the Panthers are also 39-18 ATS as a road underdog vs. foes that don't have a winning record, including 26-9 ATS vs. non-division opponents.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Southern Mississippi.  The Crimson Tide come into this Saturday game off 3 wins, but back to back point spread defeats in their last two games.  However, the good news for Alabama fans is that it is 13-1 ATS in the regular season since 1996 off back to back wins, if they lost against the point spread in each game.  And their only ATS loss over this 14-game stretch was by a mere point (65-31 vs. Arkansas, as a 35-point favorite, in 2018).  Additionally, the Golden Eagles are an awful 1-7 ATS as an underdog of 28+ points.  And Alabama also falls into a super 63-21 ATS system of mine which plays on certain big favorites to blow out their opponent.  Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Houston.  Tulane is off to its best start since 2013 (when it also began the season with a 2-1 record).  And the Green Wave's lone defeat this season was on the road, at #8 Auburn, 24-6.  In its other two games -- both at home -- the Green Wave thrashed Florida International, 42-14, as a 3-point favorite, and also demolished Missouri St., 58-6.  This game will also be played in New Orleans, at Yulman Stadium, where Tulane has won 10 of its last 14 games (7-4 ATS).  Faithful followers know I love playing on teams that can score, and especially when they're matched up against woeful defensive clubs.  Tulane is averaging 35.3 ppg, while Houston is surrendering 32.3 ppg, so I fully expect Willie Fritz's men to light up the scoreboard tonight.  Tulane is a super 7-0-1 ATS at home off a win by 28+ points.  And it's 25-12 ATS when priced between -3 and -7.5 points at home, or on a neutral field.  The favorite in this rivalry has gone 16-2 straight-up, and 14-4 ATS when priced at -3 or higher.  Lay the points with Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs opened up their season with a 40-26 win at Jacksonville, while Oakland upset Denver this past Monday night.  One of the things I love to do is go against teams that scored a lot of points in Week 1.  Indeed, since 1980, the majority of NFL teams that scored more than 38 points in Week 1 have scored less than 23 in Week 2.  So, it's not really a surprise that NFL teams have cashed just 28% in Week 2 as favorites of more than 4 points, if they scored more than 38 points in Week 1.  Last season, for example, the Saints scored 40 in Week 1, and were favored by 10 points vs. Cleveland in Week 2, but scored just 21, in a 3-point win, and failed to cover the point spread.  I look for KC's offense to be held in check by Jon Gruden's men.  Take Oakland + the points.  NFL High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers opened their 2019 campaign with an impressive 10-3 upset win at defending NFC North division champ, Chicago.  On Sunday, the Packers will try to move to 2-0 within the division, as it tackles its other big rival, Minnesota.  Unfortunately, the Packers have gone 0-6 with one Tie after a straight-up win since Dec. 17, 2017.  And they're 0-6-1 ATS off their last seven point spread victories.  Yikes!  Green Bay also has gone 0-5-1 straight-up, and 1-5 ATS vs. the Vikings since 2016 when not favored by 6+ points.  And single-digit home favorites have covered just 41% in Week 2 off an upset victory in Week 1.  Take Minnesota.  NFL Division Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Cornhuskers have yet to break into the point spread win column this year, as they're 0-2 ATS with losses to Colorado and South Alabama, while the Huskies are 2-0 ATS with point spread victories vs. Illinois State and Utah.  Last week, Nebraska was favored by 4 points on the road, but fell to the Buffaloes in overtime, 34-31.  It actually played a great first half, and broke out to a 17-0 lead.  QB Adrian Martinez was key in that first stanza, as he was 9-of-9 for 180 yards, and also ran for 45 yards on six carries.  Unfortunately, he fumbled the ball three times in that game -- and lost two of them -- which was a big part of the Cornhuskers' undoing.  I like Nebraska to rebound this evening, as in Game 3 of the season, College Football home favorites have covered 65% of the time off an upset loss, if they were winless ATS on the season, and their foe was perfect ATS.  That bodes well for Nebraska tonight.  As does the fact that it has covered 69.7% since 1980 off a SU/ATS loss the previous week, if its opponent was off a point spread win (including a perfect 8-0 ATS when priced from -9 to -18.5 points).  Lay the points with Nebraska.  NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Western Kentucky. This game will be played at a neutral site -- Nissan Stadium, in Nashville, Tennessee. Last week, we played on Western Kentucky as a touchdown underdog at Florida International, and were rewarded with a 20-14 upset victory. The Hilltoppers will now try to make it two-upsets-in-a-row tonight, and snap a 10-game losing streak to Louisville in the process. Last year, it started off well enough for WKU, as it broke out to a 14-0 lead. But it couldn't finish the job, and fell 20-17, as a 23.5-point underdog. The point spread is much lower in this game, so there's much less margin for error for the Hilltoppers. The Cardinals are 1-1 on the season, including a 35-17 defeat in Week 1 vs. Notre Dame. But Louisville was only outgained by 40 yards (423-383) in that game, and the Irish are ranked #7 in the country. Louisville did bounce back last Saturday with a 42-0 whitewash of Eastern Kentucky. And NCAA teams are 335-252-6 ATS away from home in the regular season off a shutout win, if matched up against an unrested foe. Lay the points with Scott Satterfield's Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over North Carolina.  Interestingly, these two ACC Carolina rivals have not played since 2015.  The Tar Heels won (and covered) that game, which was the fourth straight meeting won, and fifth straight meeting covered, by the home team.  The Tar Heels are 2-0 after upsetting Miami-Fla last week, and South Carolina in Week 1.  Mack Brown's men will now play their first true road game of the season.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams off back to back upset wins to start a season have cashed just 37% since 1980.  Even worse:  undefeated teams have cashed just 28% since 2001 in Game 3 of the season, if they are off an upset win, and now playing their first road game of the year.  With North Carolina entering this game on a 7-game road losing streak, we'll lay the small number with Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Pittsburgh.  These two teams met last season, and we had a huge play on the Steelers as a 3-point home underdog.  Pittsburgh played without Le'Veon Bell but still won that game, 17-10.  But that game was in the Steel City.  This Sunday night's game is in Foxborough, where the Patriots have never lost to Pittsburgh with Tom Brady at QB (Pittsburgh did win in 2008, but Matt Cassel was New England's QB that day).  With Brady under center, New England has gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS vs. the Steelers.  Even better:  Bill Belichick's Patriots have cashed 76.4% ATS when playing with revenge from an upset defeat, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -8.5 points.  And defending Super Bowl champs have cashed 85% since 1983 in Week 1 when they opened the season at home, and weren't favored by 6.5 (or more) points.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Chargers were a darling among bettors last season, and were widely touted, at the end of the regular season, to reach the Super Bowl from the AFC.  I wasn't as optimistic, as it's virtually impossible to win an NFL Championship as a Wild Card team.  Indeed, I had a big play against the Chargers when they went into New England in the quarter-finals, and was rewarded with an easy 41-28 win.  This season, I believe the Chargers will be one of the league's top teams again.  Unfortunately, they reside in a division with the equally-talented Kansas City Chiefs, so they might be a Wild Card entry once again.  Here, though, in the opening game of the season, they are a decided favorite vs. an Andrew Luck-less Colts team which will now be hard-pressed to earn a 2nd consecutive AFC South division title.  The Chargers have run roughshod over AFC South division foes over the years, as they're 29-5-1 ATS since 2002, including 7-2 ATS vs. the Colts.  And, going back further, one finds that the Chargers are 19-7 ATS vs. the Colts since 1981.  It's true that Los Angeles has stumbled out of the gate with losses in Week 1 each of the previous three seasons.  But they were road underdogs in two of those three games.  For this contest, they're a touchdown favorite.  And NFL teams favored between 6 and 7 points in Week 1, that won a Playoff game the previous season, have gone 12-0 straight-up since 2006, and 30-4 straight-up since 1981.  The Chargers also fall into several of my best Week 1 angles that are 57-28, 75-36 and 72-44 ATS since 1980.  Lay the points with Philip Rivers & Co.  NFL Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Tennessee.  The Cleveland Browns enter 2019 on an 11-season losing streak.  Since 2008, they've gone 45-130-1 straight-up, and 76-95-5 ATS!  The good news, though, for those on Lake Erie is that head coach Hue Jackson was fired midway through last season.  Freddie Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator for the season's final eight games.  And then he was named head coach 13 days after the season ended (ex-Tampa Bay offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, will take over as OC for the Browns).  This season, most observers believe the Browns will battle it out with Pittsburgh for the AFC Central division title (both teams are projected to win nine games), and I actually would give the edge to Cleveland in that race.  Notwithstanding Cleveland's poor history since 2008, it's still hard to make a case for Tennessee away from home.  Indeed, the Titans have routinely burned money on the road since 2013, as they're 15-29-1 ATS outside The Volunteer State, including 0-2 ATS vs. these Browns.  Meanwhile, Cleveland falls into several strong angles of mine, with records of 66-33, 61-21, 83-47, 81-47 and 65-26 ATS.  A lot of folks are still in a "wait-and-see" mode with Cleveland, after it added Odell Beckham, Jr. in the offseason to a young, and talented corps of offensive players (e.g., Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb).  I'm not waiting.  I'm "all in" right now.  Lay the points with Cleveland.  NFL Game of the Week!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.       

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last year, the Rams were my preseason pick (at 10-1 odds) to win the Super Bowl.  I also had the New England Patriots at 5-2 odds to win the AFC.  So, I came very close to being perfect on my preseason predictions.  This year, I went with the Saints (at 10-1 odds) as my preseason Super Bowl pick.  One reason I ultimately decided to not go with the Rams this season is that the loser of the Super Bowl has often struggled the following season.  We saw that last season with Atlanta, which had a losing record the year after it lost the Super Bowl, in overtime, to New England.  Another reason is that the Rams have a somewhat difficult non-division schedule this season, as they have to play road games at Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Atlanta and this game vs. the Panthers.  Last season, they had a relatively easy non-division road schedule, including games against the Raiders, Lions and Broncos.  The Panthers are 23-11 ATS at home vs. non-division foes (including 12-2 ATS when not favored by 3+ points), and they're also 6-2 ATS their last eight as a home underdog.  And they're 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 meetings vs. the Rams.  Finally, the Rams fall into negative 2-22 and 6-30 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams in competitively-priced games.  Take Carolina.  NFL High Roller! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Kansas City.  Two years ago, the Jaguars reached the AFC Championship game, and led New England with less than 3 minutes to go before succumbing to defeat, 24-20.  Last season, RB Leonard Fournette went down early with an injury, and the Jaguars' season unraveled from there.  This season, Fournette is healthy, and the Jaguars will also have a better signal caller, as Nick Foles has taken over the reins at QB.  The defense ranked #4 last season in scoring defense, and will once again be fierce, as most of last year's starters are returning.  And the Jaguars also drafted Josh Allen, who was the 2018 Defensive Player of the Year in College Football.  These two teams met last season at Arrowhead Stadium.  Yes, Kansas City won that home game, 30-14.  But it was not a good day for QB Patrick Mahomes.  He was 22 of 38 for 313 yards, and failed to complete a touchdown pass.  He also threw two interceptions, and had the lowest passer rating of his career in that game.  Jacksonville allowed an average of just 195 passing yards per game last season, and I expect it to once again have success vs. Mahomes.  Meanwhile, with Foles and Fournette on the field, Jacksonville should be able to move the ball very well vs. KC's lackluster defense.  Take the home underdog Jaguars.  NFL Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs + the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met last season in Minneapolis, and the Gophers survived to win 21-14, after a trick play went awry in the game's final moments.  The Bulldogs were on Minnesota's 4-yard line and attempted to tie the score with a halfback pass to their tight end, who was stationed in the back of the end zone. Unfortunately, Josh Hokit didn't get enough on his throw, and it was intercepted by Minny's Antoine Winfield, Jr.  We will play on the Bulldogs as a home underdog in this revenge game, as Big 10 teams have been dreadful as non-conference single-digit road favorites vs. revenge-minded foes.  Since 1984 they've covered just 36% of the time.  Take Fresno + the points.  NCAA Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Nevada.  Last week, Oregon lost, 27-21, to Auburn, while Nevada upset Purdue, 34-31, as an 11-point underdog.  I love the Ducks to bounce back on Saturday, as College Football teams favored by more than 15 points have covered 66.1% of non-conference games since 1980, if they were off a loss to a non-conference foe, and their current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over LSU.  This is the first match-up of this College Football season which features two teams ranked among the Top 10.  LSU is ranked #6, while Texas is #9 in both the AP and the Coaches Poll.  This will be just the 6th time since 1994 that the Longhorns have been installed as a home underdog vs. a non-conference foe.  And Texas was a perfect 5-0 ATS in those five other games.  The Longhorns opened their season with a 45-14 blowout win over Louisiana Tech, as a 19-point favorite.  That also bodes well for Texas on Saturday night, as home underdogs have cashed 61% since 1980 off a SU/ATS win by 20+ points to open the season.  Finally, Longhorns head coach Tom Herman has gone 13-2-1 ATS as an underdog in his stints with Houston and Texas, including 6-0-1 ATS when priced as an underdog of +7 or less points.  Take Texas.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, the Cowboys shocked Missouri, 37-31, as a 15.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately, that sets them up for a big letdown on the road this week.  Indeed, since 1984, teams off an upset win to kick off a season have covered just 19.04% in Week 2, if they were matched up against a non-conference foe off a SU/ATS loss.  That doesn't bode well for Wyoming in San Marcos on Saturday night.  Nor does the fact that Wyoming has covered just 23% as a non-conference road favorite (or PK) over the last 35 seasons.  Take Texas State + the points.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Florida International.  Both of these teams lost their season openers.  The Panthers were trounced, 42-14, at Tulane, as a 3-point underdog.  In contrast, the Hilltoppers were favored by 10 points last week against Central Arkansas.  But they were upset, 35-28.  And that continued a long-term trend in Western Kentucky games where the underdog has cashed 72 of 112 games (64.2% ATS).  Even better:  if the underdog was playing an opponent which wasn't off a win, then our 72-40 stat improves to 35-9 ATS, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from +7 to +11.5 points.  Take the Hilltoppers + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Purdue.  We played against Vanderbilt last week, and were rewarded with a 30-6 Georgia win (and cover).  But this Saturday, we'll take the points with Derek Mason's men.  Purdue also lost last Saturday.  But unlike Vandy, which was a 23-point underdog, Purdue was favored by double-digits.  Yet, it was upset, 34-31, by a Nevada team which only returned 11 starters from last season.  Turnovers were Purdue's major problem last week, as it coughed up the ball five times!  But even though that's unlikely to happen again this week, I still don't believe the Boilermakers will bounce back.  Indeed, dating back to 2005, College teams off an upset loss, as a favorite of -6 (or more) points in Week 1, have covered just 27.5 percent in Week 2 (including 21.8% vs. non-conference foes).  Meanwhile, SEC teams, off a loss to a conference rival, have covered 62% since 1983 as underdogs of +3 (or more) points in non-conference games.  Take the points with Vandy.  NCAA High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Akron Zips + the points over UAB.  Akron was blown out, 42-3, at Illinois last weekend, while UAB hung on to defeat Alabama State, 24-19.  The Zips look to bounce back off that loss and the good news is that they're back at InfoCision Stadium to play their home opener.  Since 1980, home underdogs of less than 14 points have cashed 65 percent if they scored less than 7 points in their season opener!  Also, UAB has been awful as a single-digit road favorite, as it's cashed just 4 of 19 games.  I look for Akron to pull the upset in new head coach Tom Arth's first game at home.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have been an SEC doormat for much of their existence, and have lost each of their last five seasons.  They've gone 0-5 ATS their last five as a home underdog, and I look for them to get blown out tonight by a Georgia team which surely will want to redeem itself following its poor showing in the NCAA Football Playoffs last year against Texas.  The Bulldogs are 20-8 ATS their last 28, while College Football teams have cashed 64% in Game 1 of the season (including 8-0 ATS their last eight) when favored away from home by more than seven points vs. conference foes.  Take Georgia.  NCAA Football Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets + the points over Kentucky.  The Rockets have won every single season this decade.  They're 79-37 straight-up since 2010, and will go for their 10th straight winning year in 2019.  One of Toledo's best point spread categories over this time is on the road, where it's gone 31-20 ATS.  That bodes well this afternoon vs. a Kentucky team, which has tallied just three winning seasons among its last nine.  And the Wildcats have gone just 23-32 ATS at home in this stretch, including 0-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2017, and also 0-7 ATS its last seven vs. non-conference foes, dating back to November 28, 2015.  The Mid-American Conference has cashed 37 of 65 on the road vs. SEC Conference foes, and the Wildcats are ripe for an upset, as they graduated all-SEC running back Benny Snell, who was drafted in the 4th round by the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as linebacker Josh Allen, who was the National Defensive Player of the Year last season, and drafted in the 1st round by Jacksonville.  Take the points with Toledo as a big underdog.  NCAA Football High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Colorado.  This rivalry has been controlled by Colorado over the last four years, as it's gone 4-0 straight-up, and 3-0-1 ATS, including a 45-13 win to open its season last year.  But I love Colorado State to avenge that defeat, as it falls into 127-61, 35-13 and 80-48 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Even better:  the underdog is 19-11-1 ATS in this series, including 7-0 ATS priced from +7.5 to +17.5 when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss.  Also, the Rams are 25-13-1 ATS as a non-conference underdog of +12 or more points.  Take the points in this rivalry game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Cincinnati.  This is a big revenge game for the Bruins, who were walloped, 26-17, as a two-touchdown favorite by the Bearcats last season.  That was Chip Kelly's debut as the UCLA coach, following the departure of Jim Mora.  And it was a harbinger of things to come, as UCLA finished the 2018 campaign with just three victories.  The reality last season was that Kelly was missing a lot of pieces on offense.  UCLA's star quarterback, Josh Rosen, had just been drafted into the NFL.  And the Bruins also had graduated their top two receivers, and three all-conference linemen.  More important to me than its 3-9 record last season was the fact that UCLA improved toward the end of the year, as it gained experience playing under Kelly.  Indeed, the Bruins went 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, including a 34-27 upset win over rival Southern Cal.  This season, however, most of UCLA's key personnel will be back, as it returns 19 starters (9 offense; 10 defense).  In contrast, the Bearcats are returning just 14 players (7 offense, 7 defense).  That bodes well for UCLA.  As does the fact that the Bruins are an awesome 70-45 ATS in regular season non-conference games.  Take UCLA + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the "OVER" in the Pro Bowl.  The line on this game opened signficantly higher, at 60 points, and has come down.  There is rain in the weather forecast for Sunday morning (40% chance), but it is expected to subside by the start of this game.  There's great value at this price, as six of the last nine Pro Bowls have gone 'over' the total, with the average combined score equaling 69.67 ppg. Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over New England, as the Chiefs fall into several of my very best Playoff systems, with records of 84-27, 25-6, 46-14, 91-35, 85-35 and 13-0 ATS since 1980.  We played on both the Chiefs and Patriots big last week.  And they both were able to take advantage of road-weary teams (Colts, Chargers) that were each playing their 3rd straight road game.  Not surprisingly, the home-standing Chiefs and Patriots rolled to easy victories.  For this game, however, the scheduling situation will work against the Patriots.  This will be New England's first road game in 35 days, as it's been at home ever since it traveled (and lost) to Pittsburgh on December 16.  Indeed, New England's been an awful road team this season.  It went 3-5 SU/ATS in its eight road games.  And its only impressive game of its three wins was at Chicago, where it survived to win, 38-31, as a 1-point favorite.  Its other two road wins were against two of the league's bottom-feeders, Buffalo and the NY Jets.  Its five losses were to the Jaguars, Lions, Titans, Dolphins and Steelers, and it failed to cover the spread in those five games by an average of 17.1 ppg.  So, now let's put the Patriots' 2018 road record into context.  In the previous two seasons, New England went 15-1 straight-up in its 16 road games, and 13-3 ATS (covering the point spread by an average of 6.18 ppg).  It's clear that this year's edition of the Patriots is a far cry from the last two seasons, when it reached the Super Bowl both times.  It's true, of course, that New England did defeat these Chiefs in Foxborough, in October.  But Kansas City still covered the 4-point spread.  And KC also has only lost one of its nine games straight-up in Arrowhead this season (29-28 vs. the Chargers), and covered the point spread at home this season by an average of 5.90 ppg.  Last week, the Patriots rolled up 41 points vs. the Chargers, which was just the 2nd time New England scored more than 38 points this season.  Unfortunately, New England also surrendered 28 to the Chargers.  And in this Conference Championship round of the Playoffs, road teams are an awful 0-9 SU/ATS after scoring 27+ points the previous week at home, if they failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points in that victory.  Even better:  NFL revenge-minded teams have covered 62% in the Conference Championship round if they were playing at home with revenge against its opponent.  Take the Chiefs to smash New England.  NFL Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots to go 'over' the total.  These two teams played in October, and the over/under was 59.5 points.  The Patriots won 43-40, and the game sailed OVER the total by 23.5 points.  Now, for this Playoff game, the Over/Under has opened a couple of points lower, which provides us with good value, in my opinion.  Moreover, NFL games, like this one, with very high totals (57 points or higher) generally go OVER the number, as they've gone 19-6-1 OVER since 1980, including a perfect 7-0-1 OVER if it's the last 4 weeks of the regular season, or the Playoffs.  Also, the Patriots have had a stark tendency to play high-scoring Playoff games.  Since 2010, they've gone OVER 14-6-1.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New England Patriots and LA Chargers to go 'over' the total, as it falls into Totals systems of mine that are 52-23 and 32-10.  After missing the Playoffs following their 2008 season, the Patriots have qualified for the post-season every single year.  And, even more impressively, they've owned one of the top 2 seeds (and, thus, at least one home game) in each of these 10 seasons.  And they've been a solid bet to go 'over' the total when playing at home, or on neutral fields.  And especially when the over/under line was greater than 43 points, as they've gone 'over' the total 13-4-1.  It's true that the Chargers have gone 'under' the total their last three games.  But they didn't face a quality offense in those three games (Ravens (twice); Broncos).  The last two times that the Chargers faced a potent offense (Chiefs, Steelers), they went 'over' the total in both games.  Finally, since 1980, in Playoff games between two teams that entered off 'unders' in their previous game, 58% have gone 'over' the total when the over/under line was 43+ points.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Indianapolis.  Certainly, the Chiefs' lack of playoff success (1-11 record since 1994) hangs like an albatross around their neck.  But from my perspective that factoid is a bunch of noise, and has worked to provide us with point spread value in this game.  Instead, the most important statistic for this game is that the Chiefs had the #1 offense in the league this season (425.6 yards), and scored the most points (35.3).  And if I can play on a rested home team, which has a proficient offense which scores 28+ points a game, and lay less than a touchdown against an opponent playing back-to-back road playoff games, I'm going to do it virtually every time.  Of course, Indianapolis isn't just playing "back-to-back" road games.  This will actually be its 3RD STRAIGHT game away from home.  And NFL road teams have cashed just 35.7 percent in the playoffs if they were playing their 3rd straight on the road.  Take Kansas City to blow out the Colts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Alabama.  It's hard for me to pass up this many points with a team which has the better rush defense, the better rush offense, and the better defense in terms of points per game.  Clemson has allowed 11.9 ppg, while Alabama's defense has given up 16.2.  And Clemson rushed for 6.7 yards per carry (against foes that give up 4.5 ypr).  On defense, the Tigers were also stellar, as they gave up just 2.4 yards per rush (against foes that averaged 4.4).  In contrast, Alabama rushed for 5.3 ypr (against foes that surrendered 4.5 ypr (the same as Clemson's opponents, but 1.4 ypr less than Clemson gained)).  And Alabama gave up 3.5 ypr against foes that averaged 4.8 ypr).  When all the numbers are blended together, then Clemson's total YPR differential was +2.40 relative to Alabama.  And its defense differential was +3.28 ppg.  To illustrate how rare it is that you get that combination of YPR and Defensive PPG strength in a big underdog in a bowl game, consider that in the last 39 years, there has NEVER been an underdog of +6 or more points -- until Clemson in this game -- that owned a defense 3.28 ppg better, and a Total YPR differential of +2.40.  Ok, so what if we relaxed our stats and just looked at how single-digit underdogs did if they owned a defensive PPG differential greater than 0, and a Total YPR differential greater than 0?  Then, we find those teams have gone a very solid 104-71-2 ATS in the Bowl games.  That's one reason I love Clemson as a big underdog.  Another is that the Tigers lost in the semi-finals last year to Alabama.  And defending National Champions are an awful 8-29-2 ATS when priced from -2 to -6.5 points vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-19 ATS if their opponent covered its previous game by more than 3 points!  With the Tigers in off a 30-3 blowout of Notre Dame, as a 10.5-point favorite, we'll grab the points with the Tigers.  Take Clemson.  NCAA Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles OVER the total.  The Eagles had a great season last year, and also had a great Playoffs run, as they held the Falcons to 10 points, and the Vikings to just seven points in their two NFC wins before winning the Super Bowl, 41-33, vs. New England.  But without a doubt, the fact that they had the #1 seed, and home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs was a major factor in their success (and ability to hold the Falcons and Vikings to 17 points combined).  This season, it's a completely different story, as they won't play any of their games at home.  And that's problematic, as their defense didn't play well at all this season against teams that are currently in the Playoffs, and especially not on the road.  Philly had six regular season games against other current Playoff teams, and 10 games against teams that failed to make the Playoffs.  In those 6 games against Playoff competition, the Eagles' defense gave up 173 points for an average of 28.8 per game!  And on the road that defensive number ballooned to 33.3 ppg.  In contrast, the Eagles' defense gave up just 17.5 ppg vs. non-playoff teams (and just 16.8 in its road games vs. non-Playoff teams).  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Conference Playoff Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over Indianapolis.  This is a great playoffs match-up between two AFC South division rivals that rebounded strongly this season off 4-12 records last year.  These two teams split road wins in their two regular season match-ups, and we cashed tickets in both games.  In the first game, we had a huge play on the Houston Texans, who won, 37-34, at Indianapolis.  Then, in the more recent game, here in Houston, we played on the 'under' 49, and cashed when the Colts won, 24-21.  For this game, we'll take the homestanding Texans, and go against an Indianapolis team off a 33-17 win last Sunday, at Tennessee.  Unfortunately for Frank Reich's men, road teams off a SU/ATS win, with winning SU/ATS records, have fared poorly in divisional match-ups when priced from +1.5 to -6.5 points.  Since 1980, such road teams have covered just 41% of their games.  Even worse for the Colts, AFC South division road teams have covered just one of six Wild Card Playoff games since 2005.  And, finally, revenge-minded teams, like Houston, with win percentages between .600 and .750, that lost the season's previous meeting by less than 4 points, have cashed 94% (15-1 ATS) in the Playoffs.  Take Houston.  NFL Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over Georgia.  The Bulldogs have the unenviable task of playing in the SEC Conference where they often have to get by Alabama in order to have a shot at a National Championship.  They were unable to do it this year, and lost to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Title game.  They're now double-digit favorites vs. Texas.  But Bowl favorites of more than 7 points, off a loss in their previous game, are an awful 33-56 ATS since 1986.  And if they're playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss that also failed to cover the point spread two games back, then our Bowl favorite is 2-8 ATS.  Texas comes into this game off a 39-27 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game.  But double-digit Bowl underdogs off a loss in which they gave up 38+ points, have cashed 73%, including a perfect 5-0 ATS if their opponent was also off a loss.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over Ohio State.  The storyline for this game is that it is coach Urban Meyer's swan song.  And, yes, he is the 2nd best coach in College Football (behind Nick Saban).  But I'm still going to go against him today.  Ohio State comes into this game off five straight wins.  But the Buckeyes are an horrid 0-9 ATS since November 21, 2015 off five straight wins!  Also, this Big 10 Championship team is unusual for the Big 10 Conference in that it has a poor defense.  The Buckeyes have given up 25.6 ppg (a whopping 10.2 ppg more than Washington's defense gives up).  Of course, over the decades, the best Big 10 Conference teams have generally been built around strong defenses and solid rushing attacks.  So, in Bowl games, when you get a Big 10 team that is greatly outmatched on defense by its opponent, it's generally a good idea to fade that Big 10 team.  Indeed, since 1980, Big 10 teams with a defense at least 6 points per game worse than their foe's defense have gone 8-21 ATS, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite, and also 0-6 ATS if the differential was minus 10.2 points (or worse) per game.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Penn State.  Kentucky's defense gave up just 16.2 ppg this season.  And that was against a largely-SEC Conference schedule.  Anytime I can get an SEC Conference team, which has a great defense, as an underdog in a Bowl game, I'm going to strongly consider it.  Indeed, SEC Conference dogs that didn't give up 16.4 ppg have cashed 76.1 percent since 1980 if they were getting 3 or more points.  And if the line was 6 or more (which is, as of this writing, the number for this game, then our SEC defensive underdogs have gone 7-2 straight-up and a PERFECT 9-0 against the spread.  Take Kentucky.

At 1 pm, on New Year's Day, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Central Florida.  Last year, the Knights went undefeated, with a 13-0 record.  And it is trying to duplicate that feat this afternoon.  But it's not easy to go undefeated in back-to-back years.  Since 1980, five teams have tried, and only one found success -- the Nebraska Cornhuskers in 1994-1995.  The other four teams (Miami, 1992; Miami, 2002; USC, 2005; and Florida State, 2014) all got destroyed in their bowl games, and failed to cover the point spread by a staggering 22.5 points per game.  That doesn't bode well for Central Florida today.  And neither does the fact that LSU comes into this game off a loss to Texas A&M.  And one of the last things one should do in the Bowls is bet against an SEC Conference team off a loss to end its season.  These teams play with a chip on their shoulder, and have rolled to a 70-45 ATS record in the Bowl games, including 38-19 ATS when they owned a .625 (or better) SEC Conference record.  Take Louisiana State to blow out Central Florida.  NCAA High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Mississippi State.  The Hawkeyes' defense gave up, on average, just 17.4 ppg this season.  And one of the things I love to do in Bowl games is play on teams with very good defenses, in an underdog role.  Since 1981, underdogs of 7+ points that didn't give up 20+ points per game have covered 59% of the time.  And in match-ups between the Big 10 Conference and the SEC Conference, the Big 10 teams have gone 9-1 ATS since 1982 as underdogs of +4.5 or more points if they had a defense which didn't give up 20+ points per game.  Take Iowa.

At 3:45 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Missouri.  All things being equal, I'll look to take points in Bowl games.  And especially at the higher price points.  Indeed, favorites of more than 7 points are an awful, including 93-122-4 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -14 points.  And, yes, it's true that Missouri played great down the stretch, with four straight wins, while Oklahoma State lost its finale to TCU, and five of its last seven, overall.  But Bowl favorites off 4+ wins have cashed just 39% over the last 39 years vs. opponents off a straight-up loss.  Finally, Missouri is a horrid 9-21 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes, if Missouri is off a straight-up and ATS win, and its opponent is off a SU/ATS loss, including 0-8 ATS when favored by more than six points!  And Okie State is 12-1 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against foes off a win!  Take the Cowboys.  Perfect 10 Club Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Stanford.  The Panthers come into this Sun Bowl game off back to back blowout losses.  They fell, 24-3, to Miami in their final regular season game.  And then they lost, 42-10, to Clemson in the ACC Championship game.  But one of the things I love to do is in the post-season is play on teams off back to back blowout losses.  For example, underdogs of more than 3 points off back to back defeats by 21+ points have gone 12-0 ATS.  Moreover, underdogs that didn't score 14+ points in their final two games have also cashed 71% in the Bowls the past 39 years.  Indeed, we just saw both of these two angles in play a couple days ago in the Independence Bowl when Duke smashed Temple, 56-27, as a 3.5-point underdog, after losing 35-6 to Clemson and 59-7 to Wake Forest in their final two games to end the season.  Additionally, this Sun Bowl game in El Paso has long been good to the underdog.  Since 1980, they've cashed 90% (18-2 ATS) when catching 3.5 or more points.  Finally, Pittsburgh falls into several of my favorite Bowl systems, with records of 93-38, 119-61 and 24-7 ATS.  Take the Panthers.  Blowout of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Monday, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies + the points over Cincinnati.  The Hokies had a mid-season swoon which saw them lose five of six games (and go 0-6 ATS).  But they bounced back to defeat Virginia (34-31) and Marshall (41-20) to end their regular season.  And both Virginia and Marshall won their Bowl games in Blowout fashion, by 28 and 18 points, respectively.  It's true that the Bearcats went 10-2 this season.  But against other Bowl teams they didn't step up their game, as they went 1-4 ATS in their five games vs. teams that qualified for a bowl game.  And three of those five games were also played on Cincy's home field.  In Cincy's two road games this season vs. teams playing in Bowl games, they went 0-2 SU and ATS, with losses to Central Florida (38-13) and Temple (24-17).  And if we go back further, we find that the Bearcats have covered the point spread in just 11 of their last 37 games vs. foes with a .500 (or better) record.  Finally, Cincy is 0-3 SU/ATS their last three Bowl games, and 0-5 ATS their last five Bowl games when priced between -2 and -8 points.  Take the Hokies + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Chicago.  Chicago won the NFC Central, and owns a 12-3 record, while Minnesota is 8-6-1, and is fighting for the 6th (and final) NFC Playoff berth.  It's true that the Bears would like to win this game, provided the 12-3 Rams would be upset by the 49ers, but that eventuality is unlikely to happen.  Thus, Chicago will likely have to settle for a division title, and a Wild Card playoff game.  Minnesota, on the other hand, desperately wants to win this game, as that is its primary pathway into the Playoffs.  I love the Vikings to do just that, as NFL teams that have at least a 2-game (or worse) record than their opponent heading into the final week have cashed 61.2% since 1980 as favorites vs. opponents off a straight-up win.  Moreover, Minnesota is a super 10-0-1 ATS its last 11 regular season games when priced from -3.5 to -13 points.  Take the Vikings.  NFL Division Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders to go 'under' the total.  Both the Chiefs and Raiders have below average-defenses.  The Raiders are giving up a staggering 28.8 ppg, while KC is surrendering 27.9 ppg.  The Chiefs, though, have gone 'under' the total 12-0-1 as a home favorite when matched up against a defense which gives up 28.6 or more ppg.  And, yes, it's true that the Chiefs have played their last five games 'over' the total.  However, since 1980, teams off 5 (or more) straight 'overs' have gone 'under' the total more often than not, including 61.2% in their final regular season game.  I also have 166-99, 74-37 and 86-44 Totals systems on the 'under,' and I expect a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Oakland.  The Kansas City Chiefs have been the league's biggest surprise this season, and will likely be the AFC Conference's #1 seed.  But they have not covered the point spread in any of their last six games (0-5-1 ATS).  I expect that to change this Sunday afternoon, as NFL home teams with a win percentage of .727 (or better) have covered 73% over the past 39 years off back to back losses.  Lay the points with the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the New England/NY Jets game.  The last five meetings between these two teams have gone 'under' the total.  And that's the way we'll look in this game, as the 'under' falls into a 94-57 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, the Jets lost at home last week, in overtime, 44-38, to the Green Bay Packers.  The over/under line for that game was 47.5, so it went 'over' the total by 34.5 points.  But teams that go significantly 'over' the total one week, tend to play lower-scoring games the next.  And especially if they were at home for the (first) higher-scoring game, and are now on the road for the (second) lower-scoring game.  Indeed, NFL teams that went 'over' the total at home by more than 31 points in their previous game have gone 'under' the total 69.6% of the time on the road when the line was 42+ points.  Take the 'under.'  AFC East Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Atlanta Falcons.  This matchup is between two teams that both had disappointing seasons.  Tampa Bay is 5-10, with three straight losses coming into this game, while Atlanta is 6-9, though it's won its last two games.  Since 1980, NFL teams have cashed just 38.1% in their final road game of the season, if they won and covered their two previous games, while their opponent was off back to back losses.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East Division title, and are locked into the #4 seed, so this game is meaningless for them.  Thus, the 6-10 Giants are favored by a healthy amount over the 9-6 Cowboys.  Obviously, this type of situation occurs every season in the NFL where really good teams have little incentive to play their top players in the final week or two.  And in the season's final two weeks, when teams with a win percentage at least .250 percentage points worse than their opponent's, are favored by more than three points, then our favored team has covered 70.5% of the time over the past 39 years.  Take the Giants.

At 4 pm, on Saturday, December 29, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson.  This is a match-up of two undefeated teams, as Notre Dame is 12-0, while Clemson is 13-0.  And I will generally take the underdog in match-ups between two undefeated teams, whether in the regular season, or the post-season.  Indeed, since 1980, the underdog has covered 68% of the time when getting more than 6 points, if both teams had a record of 5-0 or better.  And in Bowl games, such teams are a perfect 5-0 — and not just against the point spread.  But they’re also 5-0 straight-up, even though the average point spread in those five games has been 8.4 points.  That bodes very well for Notre Dame.  As does the fact that undefeated teams (like Clemson), with a record of 5-0 or better, and off a point spread win, have covered just 42% of the time since 1980 when favored by more than 6 points vs. .666 (or better) opponents.  Take the points with the Irish.  Perfect 10 Club.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack over Arkansas St.  The Red Wolves went 8-4 this season, including 5-3 ATS in Sun Belt Conference play, while Nevada went 5-3 in the Mountain West Conference, and 7-5 overall.  Nevada did lose its last game, 34-29, as a 14-point favorite at UNLV.  But Bowl teams have cashed 80% over the last 15 years off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 8 points.  Even worse for Arkansas State:  Sun Belt teams have gone 20-52 ATS in non-conference games, if they weren't a losing team and weren't getting more than a point.  Finally, Nevada falls into my very best Bowl system, which is 52-11 ATS, as well as 74-27 and 53-21 ATS Bowl angles.  Take Nevada.  NCAA Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over South Carolina.  The Cavaliers come into this bowl game off back to back losses.  Certainly, losing back to back games to end the regular season is not ideal.  But not all losing streaks are equal.  And, here, both of those defeats were on the road.  And losing two road games is not as problematic as, say, losing two home games.  Indeed, underdogs off back to back road losses are a super 73% ATS in the post-season since 1980, including 81% vs. foes off a straight-up win.  Take Virginia + the points.  NCAA High Roller Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Iowa State.  This season, Mike Leach's Cougars were the #1 College Football team against the point spread.  Washington State finished the season with a 10-2 ATS record, and its only point spread defeats were its eighth game of the season vs. California, and its final game of the season vs. Washington.  In contrast, Iowa State was a pedestrian 6-6 ATS, and it ended the season with four straight ATS losses.  Since 1991, teams off a point spread loss, but with a point spread win percentage of .666 (or better), have cashed 70.7% in the post-season vs. foes that didn't have a winning record against the spread.  And Bowl teams that lost their previous four games to the point spread were under .500 ATS in their Bowl games, including 6-15-1 ATS in "win situation" games with point spreads ranging from +3 to -3.  Take Washington State.  Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Syracuse.  Certainly, there are a lot of negatives on the side of West Virginia in this ballgame.  The most obvious one, of course, is the absence of star quarterback Will Grier, who has chosen to bypass this game so he can prepare for the NFL draft. And then there is West Virginia's awful history in the Bowl games. Since 1982, it's 6-21 ATS, including 1-11 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes.  And, finally, Big 12 Conference favorites are a poor 39-58 ATS as favorites in Bowl Games.  With all that said, I still favor the Mountaineers.  First, the fact that Grier won't play has been factored into this point spread, as WVU was favored by SEVEN points when the opening line was published, but it is now an UNDERDOG.   And, second, teams like Syracuse, that come into their Bowl game off a 21-point (or greater) upset win, have covered just 23% since 2000 when they weren’t getting 3 or more points.  Finally, the Mountaineers will have had several weeks to integrate their new quarterback, Jack Allison, into the offense.  And it's not as if he will be going against a great pass defense which could take advantage of his inexperience. Syracuse ranked just 74th of 130 College Football teams this season in defensive yards per pass attempt.  Take West Virginia + the points.  NCAA High Roller Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Vanderbilt.  Last season, the Commodores won just five games, and failed to make a bowl game.  So, when it defeated its arch-rival, Tennessee, in its final regular season game, that was a huge win for this program, as it was its sixth win, overall, and enabled the Commodores to play in the Post-Season.  But I’m not a fan of playing on favorites in Bowl games that missed out completely on the post-season the previous year because of a losing record.  Generally speaking, a lot of these teams are just happy to be in a bowl game, so I prefer to not lay points with them.  And such teams have covered just 40% of the time as a Bowl favorite over the last 20 years.  Vanderbilt is also a poor 2-6 ATS in non-conference games after playing their rival, Tennessee.  Finally, Baylor is a solid 19-9 ATS its last 28 as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +7 points.  Take the Bears. NCAA Elite Info Winner!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Temple.  These two teams played almost mirror-opposite games to end their regular seasons.  The Owls won 57-7 on the road at Connecticut, while Duke was upset at home, 59-7, as a 9.5-point favorite by Wake Forest.  And Duke's loss continued a season-long trend which saw it cover the point spread as an underdog (5-0 ATS), but lose as a favorite (1-6 ATS).  And if we go back further, we find that Duke is 27-9 its last 36 as an underdog, including 9-0 when playing with rest, and 7-0 ATS their last seven.  That bodes well for the Blue Devils this afternoon, as they've been installed as an underdog in today's game.  Even better:  since 1990, teams off back to back losses, where they didn't score 44+ points combined in those two games, have gone 42-17 ATS in the post-season, including 7-0 ATS the past 3 years, if they weren't favored by more than a point, and their opponent was off a straight-up win.  Take the Blue Devils + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Denver.  Last week, the Raiders were blown out, 30-16, by the Cincinnati Bengals.  But off that 14-point loss, we'll step in and take the points with Oakland as a home underdog.  Indeed, I have several very good systems that back the Raiders tonight.  First, consider that since 1980, home underdogs have gone 177-130-11 ATS at Game 14 forward, if they were off a SU/ATS loss.  And, second, teams playing their last home game of the season have gone 70.7 percent ATS since 1980, if they owned a W/L record less than .400 and their opponent's W/L percentage was less than .429.  Take the Raiders tonight + the points.   Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Kansas City.  The Seahawks were upset last week by the 49ers in San Francisco.  That dropped Seattle's record to 8-6, so it needs to win to remain in the Wild Card hunt.  Seattle's been installed as an underdog vs. the AFC's top-seeded Chiefs.  But I love Seattle to pull the upset, as NFL home dogs (or PK) off an upset loss, with a win percentage between .501 and .667. have cashed 70.9% over the past 34 years vs. .687 (or better) opposition.  Moreover, the Seahawks have long had one of the best home fields in the league.  And Seattle's been especially strong toward the end of the season, as it is 70-39-7 ATS at home in their final three regular season home games (or the post-season) since 1983, including 24-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Take the Seahawks.  Sunday Night Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Pittsburgh.  We had a big play on the Steelers last week over New England, and were rewarded with a 17-10 upset win.  Meanwhile, the Saints eked out a Monday Night Football win at Carolina, 12-9.  It's true that New Orleans' offense has been held in check in two of their last three games, as New Orleans also scored just 10 points at Dallas back on November 29.  But it's also true that New Orleans' last three games were all on the road.  At home this season, in six games, New Orleans has scored 228 points for an average of 38 ppg!  And the Saints have won and covered their last four home games.  Meanwhile, the Steelers haven't covered any of their last three road games, and even lost outright their last two -- as an 11-point favorite vs. Oakland, and as a 3-point favorite vs. Denver.  It's true that Ben Roethlisberger is a very good quarterback.  And he has some great weapons in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.  But Pittsburgh's offense isn't in the same league as the Saints' offense.  And Steelers coach Mike Tomlin can't hold a candle on the offensive side of the football to the Saints' Sean Payton.  Indeed, Payton may be the best offensive mind in the game.  And he's at his best when matched up against other teams whose offenses score more than 24 points per game.  Since 2008, with Payton as head coach, the Saints are a staggering 40-15 straight-up and 42-12-1 ATS vs. foes that score more than 24 points per game.  This will be another Saints Blowout.  Lay the points. NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers to go 'over' the total.  The Saints scored just 12 points last week.  But they generally bounce back on offense after such poor games.  And New Orleans has gone 'over' the total 86% under coach Sean Payton after not scoring 14+ points in their previous game.  And the Saints have also gone 'over' the total in 30 of 39 non-division home games vs. winning teams off a straight-up win.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.