At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  These two NFC South division rivals went to overtime two weeks ago, and the Falcons prevailed, 37-34.  We'll take the Panthers in this rematch, as revenge-minded home teams have cashed 67.3% since 1980 if the two teams previously met within the last 2 games, and the home team wasn't favored by 2+ points.  Even better:  the Panthers are 11-1 ATS at home off a loss by 16+ points, if their current opponent wasn't a winning team.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons to go UNDER the total.  A couple of weeks ago these two teams met, and Atlanta survived to win, 37-34, in overtime.  We'll take the UNDER in this contest, as competitively-priced NFC South division games, with point spreads < 3 points, have gone under 68% if the O/U line ranged from 42 to 53 points.  Additionally, Carolina has gone UNDER 32-8 at home vs. division foes when not getting 3+ points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Tennessee.  The Chiefs had last week off after blowing out San Francisco, 44-23.  In coach Andy Reid's career, his teams are 22-12 ATS when playing with rest.  They'll welcome a Titans team which has won each of its last 5 games.  Unfortunately, underdogs of +6 (or more) points, off 4+ wins, have covered just 34.2% the past 15 seasons.  Take the Chiefs minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Arizona/Seattle game.  The Seahawks blew out the New York Giants last week, and will travel to Phoenix to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.  Arizona has given up 34 points each of its last two games and, not surprisingly, both went over the total.  Seattle has gone OVER 81-46-1 after winning at home in its previous game and we'll look for another high-scoring game here.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Atlanta.  The Falcons outlasted the Panthers last week, in overtime, 37-34, while the Chargers had last week off following an upset home loss, 37-23, to the Seahawks.  We'll fade Atlanta in this game, as the Falcons are 0-12 ATS as a home dog off a home win, if matched up against a winning foe.  Additionally, rested, single digit road favorites off a loss have cashed 77% since 1980 vs. non-division foes.  Finally, the Chargers are a super 50-27 ATS off an upset loss, including 14-0-1 ATS their last 15 when they lost by > 11 points in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Wake Forest.  We played against Wake last week, and easily got the $$$$ when Louisville upset it in blowout fashion.  And we'll once again go against the Demon Deacons on the road in Raleigh.  NC State lost last season's meeting 45-42, but is a solid 31-19 ATS as a revenge-minded home dog.  Meanwhile, Wake is a horrible 6-14-2 ATS as a road favorite vs. a revenge-minded foe.  Take North Carolina State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes + the points over Florida State.  The Seminoles come into this rivalry game off a SU/ATS win last week against Georgia Tech, while Miami outlasted Virginia in overtime, 14-12, but failed to cover the 3-point spread.  We'll take the underdog Hurricanes, as the underdog has gone 27-13-1 ATS, including 22-6 ATS if getting 9 or less points.  And Florida State is a dreadful 34-62 ATS vs. conference foes not off a SU/ATS win.  Take Miami + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson.  The Fighting Irish have been installed as a home dog vs. the undefeated (8-0) Tigers.  We'll go against Clemson, as undefeated teams -- at Game 8 forward -- have covered just 41.7% the past 43 years away from home in the regular season vs. foes that weren't undefeated, provided our unbeaten team wasn't laying 5.5 or more points.  This system was a perfect 4-0 ATS last year, and is already 1-0 ATS this season coming into tonight.  Finally, Notre Dame is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS as a home dog since 1985 vs. undefeated foes with a 4-0 (or better) record!  Take the Fighting Irish.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over Louisville.  We played on the Cardinals last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 48-21.  Unfortunately, Louisville is a wallet-busting 2-13 ATS off an upset win, if it wasn't getting 3+ points in the current game.  Take James Madison.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Alabama.  The Tigers come into this home game off back to back double-digit wins.  They went into Gainesville on October 15, and downed Florida, 45-35.  Then two weeks ago, they blew out Ole Miss, 45-20.  They had last week off to prepare for this big game.  And rested home dogs of +7 or more points, off back-to-back wins have gone 47-21 ATS, including 38-12 ATS vs. foes off wins by 7+ points.  Moreover, NCAA home dogs off back to back SU/ATS wins, in which they scored 90 points combined over those two games, have covered 65% the past 43 seasons.  Take LSU.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars + the points over Boise State.  The Cougars have lost 4 straight games, while Boise has won its last four.  But we'll still take the ice cold Cougars on Saturday, as single-digit underdogs have covered 69% off 3 SU/ATS losses, if they were playing an opponent off 3 SU/ATS wins.  And the Cougars are 8-3 ATS their last 11 meetings vs. Boise.  Take BYU + the points.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin Cajuns + the points over Troy.  The Trojans went into Mobile last week, and upset South Alabama, 10-6.  But that upset win has triggered one of my very best college football systems which goes against certain teams on the road off upset wins.  Troy's been installed as a road favorite for this Sun Belt contest.  Unfortunately road teams off a SU/ATS win have covered just 23.1% at Louisiana Lafayette if the Cajuns were off an ATS loss (and 0-6 ATS their last 6 in this situation as a favorite or PK).  Take Louisiana + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Liberty.   The Flames come into this game off a 41-14 upset win over BYU, as a 7-point home dog.  Unfortunately, Arkansas has been strong at home vs. foes off upset wins, as it's gone 18-9 ATS.  And double-digit road dogs have cashed just 37% since 1980 off an upset win, if they covered the spread by 31+ points in their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Lay the points with the Razorbacks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Tennessee.  It's often said that defense wins championships.  Of course, a lot of times people say things that sound good, but aren't actually true.  However, in football, it's absolutely true.  Defense does win championships.  And Georgia brings the better defense into this game.  It's giving up just 10.5 ppg, while Tennessee is allowing 21.0 ppg.  It's true that the Vols have the higher-scoring offense, as they're averaging 49.3 ppg, while Georgia is scoring 41.7 ppg.  We'll take Georgia in this match-up, as the team with the better defense has covered the spread 60% of the time in games between unbeaten teams with a 6-0 (or better) record.  And in these match-ups of unbeatens, teams with the lower-scoring offense have covered 63%.  And if a team has both the better defense, and the lower-scoring offense, they've covered 71%. Take Georgia minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our American Athletic Conf. Underdog of the Year is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida.  After losing a heartbreaker at home, 33-32, vs. Houston (the Cougars scored 2 TDs in the final two minutes to stun Memphis), the Tigers fell flat on the road the next two weeks.  They lost, 47-45, at East Carolina, and then fell by 10 points to Tulane, 38-28. But they're back home for this game, and have been installed as a home underdog vs. Central Florida.  Memphis is 17-9 ATS at home when not favored by more than 1 point, if it's off a loss, and its foe is off a SU/ATS win.  And UCF is a horrid 3-15 ATS as a road favorite, priced from -3 to -9.5 points, vs. conference foes.  Finally, Memphis falls into a 72-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home dogs against foes off a win.  Grab the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Syracuse.  Pat Narduzzi's men come into this home game off back to back road losses against North Carolina and Louisville.  But Pitt has been terrific at home off back to back losses, as it's 12-1 straight-up, and 11-2 ATS (with one of its two ATS losses by a mere half-point).  And the Panthers are 17-3 SU its last 20 meetings vs Syracuse, including 9-0-2 ATS when priced from +4 to -9 points.  Take the Panthers.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Hokies have lost 5 straight games to fall to 2-6 on the season.  And one of those two wins was against FCS Wofford, where it was favored by 39 points.  Going back further, we find that the Hokies have gone 12-21 ATS their last 33, and 19-37 ATS their last 57 vs revenge-minded foes.  With Georgia Tech, indeed, playing with revenge from a 26-17 loss last season, we'll take the points with Georgia Tech.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Northwestern/Ohio State game Under the total.  The Wildcats have gone UNDER the total 39-17-1 at home in FBS games, including 14-1 UNDER their last 15 after going Over in their previous game.  Take the Under.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane + the points over Tulane.  Tulane is 7-1 (.875) on the season.  But Tulsa has been stellar vs. .777 (or better) foes when not laying more than 3 points, as it's 10-0 ATS.  And the Golden Hurricane are 14-4-1 ATS when dressed up as an underdog.  Meanwhile, Tulane is a poor 11-21 ATS on the road off back to back wins.  Grab the points with Tulsa.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Charlotte.  This match-up has an historic footnote.  Last week, the Hilltoppers were upset by North Texas, 40-13, as a 10-point favorite, while Charlotte upset Rice, 56-23, as a 15.5-point underdog.  So, Western Kentucky failed to cover by 37 points, while Charlotte covered by 48.5 (for a combined differential of 85.5 points).  And that 85.5-point relative point spread differential for the two teams' previous game is the 7th-highest since 1980!  Unfortunately, teams that covered the spread by 39+ points in their previous game are a miserable 0-16 ATS when priced from +10 to +23.5 points.  Lay the points with Western Kentucky.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Under in the Wisconsin/Maryland game.  The Badgers opened the season with back-to-back unders, but have proceeded to play six straight overs in a row.  And this 6-0 'over' streak has led to an inflated total for this game.  Maryland also comes into this game off back to back games where it tallied 30+ points.  And the Terrapins have now gone Over the total 9 straight following back to back games where they scored 30+ points.  Take Wisconsin + Maryland Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over North Carolina.  The Cavaliers lost last season to North Carolina, 59-39, in Chapel Hill.  We'll take the Cavaliers here, at home, as they’re 37-17 ATS when playing with revenge at home, if the point spread was 8 or less points.  Even better, Virginia lost in overtime to Miami last week, here at home.  And home underdogs off a home overtime game where they didn't win SU/ATS have gone 37-19 ATS.  Finally, North Carolina blew out Pitt last week, 48-34.  But the Tar Heels are a dismal 4-16 ATS off a conference win, including 0-8 ATS when laying more than 6 points, and 1-11 ATS on the road. Grab the points with Virginia.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Oregon State.  The Beavers and Huskies are both 6-2 on the season, and 3-2 in Pac-12 play, and need to win to stay alive in the race for the conference title.  Oregon State has not had any success on the road late in the season, as it's 0-21 straight-up, at Game 9 forward when playing on the road, including 0-6 ATS when not getting more than 8 points.  That doesn't bode well for the Beavers tonight.  Nor does the fact that it's 1-9 SU/4-6 ATS the last 10 meetings vs. Washington.  Finally, Washington is 18-8 ATS at home when favored by 13 or less points, including 7-0 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats + the points over Buffalo.  This game will go a long way toward determining the MAC Conference's East division crown.  Buffalo is on top with a 4-0 record, while Ohio sits at 3-1 entering this pivotal contest.  The Bulls currently own a 5-game win streak, while Ohio is also playing well, with its win streak at three games.  We'll grab the points with the home underdog Bobcats, as the home team is 19-4 straight-up in this series, and 15-7 ATS, including 7-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Even better:  the Bobcats are 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of +1.5 (or more) points if they won their previous game.  Take Ohio U.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Buffalo.  Green Bay lost as a road favorite at Washington to fall to 3-4 on the season.  And they've now been installed as a huge underdog at Buffalo.  This is the first time in Rodgers' career that he's been under center when the Packers were getting 9+ points.  But he's 5-2 ATS when getting more than 6 points.  And Green Bay is a super 7-1 ATS with Rodgers as an underdog off an upset loss.  And it's 5-0 ATS with Rodgers off 3 ATS losses, if Green Bay wasn't favored by more than 1 point.  Those stats bode well for Green Bay.  As does the fact that .375 (or better) NFL teams have cashed 66.1% as an underdog of more than 6 points off an upset road loss.  Take the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last Monday, Chicago upset New England as an 8.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately for the Bears, road dogs of +8 (or more) points, off an upset win as an 8-point (or greater) underdog, have covered the spread in just 33% of their games since 1980.  Dallas is 12-7 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when favored by 4+ points.  Meanwhile, Chicago is a wallet-breaking 14-23 ATS off an upset win, including 2-9 ATS when getting 4+ points.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Detroit/Miami game.  After starting the season with four extremely high scoring games, the Lions have played back to back low scoring games.  But those two games were on the road against Dallas and New England -- teams that play good defense.  Today, Detroit is back at home, and it's gone OVER in 20 of 28 home games following a SU loss in a game which went under the total.  Even better:  Detroit is scoring 38.67 ppg at home, by itself.  And its home games have averaged 76.33 ppg!  Combine that with the fact that Miami's road games have averaged 59.67 ppg, and we have all the ammunition we need to take the OVER in this game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  New York had a bittersweet victory last week in Denver.  Yes, the Jets prevailed in a tough, defensive game, 16-9.  But they lost RB Breece Hall for the season when he sustained a torn ACL.  To make up for Hall's absence, the Jets traded for Jaguars' RB James Robinson.  Meanwhile, the Patriots were shellacked, 33-14, Monday night, in an upset loss at the hands of the Chicago Bears.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with Bill Belichick's men today.  For technical support, consider that New England is an awesome 21-0-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off a loss, if matched up against a foe off a win.  That bodes well for the Patriots today.  As does the fact that the Jets are a horrid 41-66-4 ATS at home vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Finally, the Pats have won 12 straight in this AFC East division series (8-4 ATS).  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Michigan State.  Last season, Michigan lost just once in the regular season, and it was to Mel Tucker's Spartans, 37-33.  Kenneth Walker rushed for 197 yards and 5 touchdowns in the game last season.  But Walker is now wearing a Seahawks uniform, so MSU's ground attack has sputtered this season (3.6 ypr).  Michigan's 10-4 ATS its last 14 home games vs. Big 10 Conference rivals, when laying 6+ points.  And, in his NCAA career, coach Jim Harbaugh's teams have gone 13-5 ATS when favored by -6 (or more) points, and playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Wake Forest.  The Cards come into this game off back to back double digit wins (and also back to back double-digit covers).  And they also play with revenge from a 3-point loss to the Demon Deacons last season.  We'll grab the points with the home dog, as it falls into a 90-41 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back covers by 10+ points.  Even better:  Wake Forest is a wallet-busting 22-38-2 ATS as a favorite vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes that won their previous game by 7+ points.  Take Louisville + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Florida Hurricanes minus the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers upset Georgia Tech, 16-9, in their previous game, and are now 3-4 on the season. Miami is also 3-4 after getting blown out, 45-21, by Duke.  Today, the 'Canes will turn to Jake Garcia as their starting quarterback after erstwhile starter, Tyler Van Dyke, was injured in last week's loss.  Miami was actually favored by 10.5 points in that Duke game.  It was a nightmarish performance all the way around, including a ghastly 8 turnovers (5 by Garcia).  But I love Miami to bounce back today, as NCAA favorites have covered 62% over the last 43 years off a loss by 20+ points as a double-digit favorite, when they were playing, in their current game, an opponent off a SU win. And Virginia's covered just 33% as a home dog since 1980 vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the UNDER in the Penn State/Ohio State game.  Ohio State comes into this game scoring 49.5 ppg, and outscoring their foes by 34.71 ppg.  But I expect a relatively-low scoring game this afternoon, as Penn State has gone UNDER 89% since 2013 against opponents that score more than 47.5 ppg, and UNDER 78% against opponents with a scoring margin greater than 32 ppg.  And 71% of Nittany Lion home games have gone UNDER the total if the O/U line was greater than 55 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have had a creampuff schedule thus far.  They've played six of their seven games at home.  And their only road game was against Michigan State, which is having a down year.  (The Buckeyes were favored by 27 on the road in that game.)  So, this game will be the sternest test for Ohio State yet this season.  It's on the road.  And it's the first time this season that Ohio State wasn't favored by 17+ points.  Penn State enters off a 45-17 blowout of Minnesota, and falls into several of my best 'momentum' systems, with records of 202-115, 323-216 and 119-52 ATS since 1980.  Additionally, the Nitts are 44-23 ATS at home off a conference win, including 15-4 ATS if they won their previous game by 25+ points.  Grab the points with the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Bucs will surely be happy to be home on this Thursday, as they were blown out on the road last week by Carolina.  And they also suffered an upset road loss two weeks ago, at Pittsburgh.  The good news for Tampa tonight is that home teams have covered 65.2% over the last 43 seasons off back to back upset road defeats.  Additionally, Tom Brady's teams have gone 25-1 ATS in the regular season off a loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and their opponent was off a straight-up win.  Take the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the New York Jets.  Russell Wilson won't be on the field today vs. the Jets, as he's out with a hamstring injury.  QB Brett Rypien will instead be under center for the Broncos.  But Wilson was the 25th-ranked quarterback through the first six weeks, so his absence won't be devastating to the Broncos.  We'll take Denver, as it's a stellar 52-19-3 ATS at home, priced from +4.5 to -2 points, including 10-0 ATS if it was off a division loss in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over New York.  The Jaguars come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, but have been installed as a home favorite vs. New York.  The Giants are headed in the opposite direction, as they're 5-1 SU/ATS after their 2nd straight upset win -- a 24-20 victory over Baltimore.   But off those two upsets, we'll fade New York at Jacksonville on Sunday.  Indeed, winning teams off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 39.2% on the road vs. losing teams over the last 40+ years.  And the Giants are a poor 4-8 ATS off back to back upset wins vs. a foe off a SU loss.  Finally, over the last 40+ years, NFL teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have covered 69.5% vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins if our play-on team (here, Jacksonville), was not getting more than 4 points.  Lay the points with the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Dallas.  Dak Prescott will make his return this afternoon for the Cowboys, but we'll still go against them this afternoon.  Detroit had last week off following a shutout loss, 29-0, at the hands of New England.  The Lions are now 1-4, but rested underdogs of +6 (or more) points, with a win percentage < .333, have covered 64.5% over the past 43 years.  And Detroit has gone 16-0-1 ATS after losing by more than 26 points in their previous game, if they were installed as an underdog of 6+ points in their current game.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens have not covered the spread in any of their three previous games, and are 1-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 points, dating back to last season.  This afternoon, they'll welcome division rival, Cleveland, to M&T Bank Stadium.  We'll grab the points with the Browns, as AFC North division teams have covered 64.8% if they were getting 6+ points against a division foe not off a SU/ATS win.  Additionally, the road team has gone 27-18-1 ATS in this rivalry, including 5-0 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Washington.  The Bears come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Washington State and Colorado.  But both of those games were on the road (where Cal is 0-3 on the season).  At home, it's been a different story, as California is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS.  The Bears play this game with revenge from a 31-24 loss in Seattle last season.  And Washington is an awful 0-7 ATS its last seven (and 13-31-1 ATS its last 45) as road favorites vs. revenge-minded conference foes, if the Huskies were off a win, and owned a winning record.  Grab the points with California.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Louisville/Pittsburgh game.  The Cardinals have scored 33+ points in each of their last three games.  But the Panthers have not allowed more than 31 points in regulation in any of their six games this season.  I look for a relatively-low scoring game here, as Louisville has gone under in 9 of 10 games after scoring 31+ points in three (or more) games in a row.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Alabama/Mississippi State game.  The Crimson Tide lost last week to the Tennessee Volunteers, 52-49, as a 9-point favorite.  Off that horrible game, we'll look for a much better effort here by Nick Saban's troops -- and especially on the defensive end.  Indeed, over the last nine years, Alabama is 6-0 SU off a loss, and all six games have gone UNDER the total, as the Tide held those six foes to 13, 0, 6, 7, 16 and 9 points (8.5 ppg).  Additionally, Alabama is 7-0 Under its last 7 following a game that went Over the total.  Meanwhile, Mississippi State also comes into this game off an upset defeat, 27-17, at the hands of Kentucky.  And the Bulldogs have gone UNDER 14 of 15 following a straight-up loss, if they failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in their previous game.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Fresno State.  The Bulldogs upset San Jose State, 17-10, last week as a 7-point home dog, and they covered the spread for the first time all season, after an 0-5 ATS start to the season.  Now, Fresno has been installed as a big road favorite in Albuquerque.  But I look for a reversion to form for Fresno, as road favorites have covered just 33% over the last 42 years off an upset win, if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak prior to that upset victory.  Additionally, the Lobos are 13-2 ATS against foes that won outright as a 7-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA.  Both of these teams are undefeated (3-0) in Pac-12 conference play, though UCLA owns the better overall record, at 6-0 (compared to Oregon's 5-1).  In the Bruins' last game, they upset Utah, 42-32, as a 3-point home underdog.  I played on UCLA in that game, but will go against Chip Kelly's men on this Saturday, as undefeated Pac-12 Conference teams are 14-27-1 ATS off an upset conference win.  Even worse for the Bruins:  they're 15-36-1 ATS off back to back wins, including 1-7 ATS as an underdog off a double-digit win.  And the Ducks are 26-9-1 ATS vs. conference foes, if the Ducks owned a worse season W/L record, and were not getting 4+ points.  Lay the points with Oregon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our Conference USA Game of the Month is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green come into this game off back to back blowout wins over Florida Atlantic (45-28) and Louisiana Tech (47-27).  They've now been installed as an underdog at UTSA, which doesn't bode well for the Mean Green.  Indeed, underdogs are a horrible 13-45 ATS after back to back games where they scored more than 40 points, including 0-10 ATS their last 10 when playing a revenge-minded foe.  With the Roadrunners seeking revenge from a 22-point loss in Denton last season, we'll lay the points with UTSA.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes suffered their first loss of the season last week following a 5-0 SU/ATS start.  We'll go against James Madison on Saturday, as double-digit favorites off a SU/ATS loss have covered just 63 of 169 if that loss was their first of the season after a 5-0 (or better) start.  Take Marshall + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Florida International/Charlotte game.  Last week, we played on the Charlotte 49ers and UAB under the total as our Conference USA game of the Year.  We were rewarded with a 54-point game which went under the total by 11 points.  But here, we'll look for a return to form by Charlotte, as it had gone over the total in each of its five games previous to last week.  Take Charlotte/Florida International Over.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane/Memphis game to go Under the total.  The Tigers come into this game off back to back high-scoring games.  Memphis lost, 47-45, last week, and 33-32 the game before that.  But the Tigers have gone under the total 17-8 off back to back 60-point games.  Meanwhile, Tulane also played a high-scoring game last week, as it routed South Florida, 45-31.  But the Green Wave have gone under 18-7 after a game which went over the total, if the line in the current game was less than 58 points.  Take the Under.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Iowa.  Our strongest football play so far this year was on the Ohio State Buckeyes, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo.  The Bucks were averaging just 33 ppg, and were 0-2 ATS on the season going into that contest.  But Ohio State erupted for 77 points, and that was a harbinger of things to come.  Since that game, Ohio State has scored 52, 49, and 49 points.  And they're 3-0-1 ATS their last four games.  I won't step in front of this freight train, as NCAA teams have covered 63.3% of their home games since 1980 vs. conference foes, if they scored 49+ points in each of their three previous games, and did not fail to cover the spread in any of those three games.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over New Orleans.  The Saints are 2-4 SU/ATS this season, and have been outscored by 2.83 ppg, and have failed to cover the spread by an average of 3.33 ppg.  This will be New Orleans' 3rd road game of the season, and it's 0-2 ATS in the first two, with ATS losses to the Falcons and Panthers.  The Cardinals are also 2-4 straight-up, after being upset last week by the Seattle Seahawks.  And that was Arizona's 2nd straight defeat, as it also fell to the 6-0 Philadelphia Eagles, 20-17, two weeks ago.  But off those two losses, we'll step in and take Kliff Kingsbury's men on Thursday night.  For technical support, consider that the Cardinals are a sensational 36-13 ATS at home off back to back losses, if its opponent had a negative scoring margin.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Broncos are offensively-challenged.  They scored just nine points in last week's 12-9 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and are averaging just 15.0 ppg this season.  In contrast, the Chargers enter tonight's game with a 24.4 ppg offensive average, and have tallied 34 and 30 points the past two weeks.  This vast offensive difference (LA is 9.4 ppg better) will keep a lot of gamblers off Denver, but not me.  Indeed, at Game 6 forward, NFL road teams that average 15 (or less) points per game, and at least 9.4 ppg less than their opponent, have gone 119-78-5 ATS, including 65-35-4 ATS if their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  And if it's a division game, then our 65-35-4 stat zooms to 28-9-1 ATS.  That bodes well for Denver in this game.  As does the fact that AFC West division teams with a losing record have gone 141-83 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, if our road team was not favored by more than 3 points.  Finally, Denver is an awesome 11-0 ATS following games it failed to score 13+ points, if it was an underdog of 4+ points in the current game, and its opponent was off a win.  Take the Broncos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles had a winning record last season, yet lost both games to Dallas, 51-26 and 41-21.  But Philly now falls into several double-revenge systems of mine that have records of 53-28, 72-51 and 43-23 ATS.  Additionally, dating back to 1989, undefeated teams (like Philly) have cashed 63.7% at home off a point spread loss if they weren’t favored by 9+ points in their current game.  Take the Eagles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs + the points over Buffalo.  The Bills blew out Pittsburgh last week, 38-3, to move to 4-1 this season.  KC is also 4-1 after outlasting the Raiders, 30-29.  The Chiefs are a super 23-9 their last 32 games, and are 10-1 SU their last 11 at home.  Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.  We'll grab the points with the Chiefs, as NFL teams that have won at least 23 of their previous 32 games, have gone 20-8 ATS when not laying more than 1 point, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if their opponent was off a win by 17+ points.  Take KC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Arizona/Seattle game.  The Cardinals have reeled off four straight Unders after last week's 20-17 loss to the Eagles went under the total by 10.5 points.  And Arizona is also 15-4-1 UNDER on the road the past 3 seasons, including 8-0 Under when priced from -7 to +2.5 points.  It's true that Seattle surrendered 39 points to the Saints last week, and 45 to Detroit two games back.  But the Seahawks have gone under 7 of 8 after allowing 28+ points in their two previous games.  And competitively-priced NFC West division games, with point spreads of 3 points or less, have gone Under 45-18-3.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Los Angeles Rams/Carolina Panthers game.  After playing two of the NFL's best defenses the past two week (49ers, Cowboys), the Rams will be ecstatic to go up against a Panthers defense which has allowed 37 and 26 points its two previous games.  Los Angeles has gone Over the total 60.3% off three straight unders.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are 40-22 Over as road underdogs, including 11-0 Over when the OU Line was between 40 and 42.5 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Seattle.  The Seahawks' defense is giving up 30.8 ppg, which is the 2nd-worst in the NFL.  They’ve been installed as a home dog this Sunday.  But NFL home underdogs of +2 (or more) points have covered just 40.3%, at Game 5 forward, if they were giving up more than 30 points.  Take Arizona minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the New York Jets.  The Flyboys pulled off their 2nd straight upset last week when they blew out division rival, Miami, 40-17.  And they went into Pittsburgh the previous week and upset the Steelers, 24-20.  Now, they'll try to make it three-upsets-in-a-row when they travel to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  Unfortunately for New York, Green Bay's coming into this game off an upset loss to the New York Giants, 27-22, in London.  Green Bay's 24-11 ATS with Rodgers under center off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS vs. a foe off an upset win.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Cincinnati/New Orleans game.  Last week, the Saints scored 39 points in a 39-32 victory over Seattle.  And their game went over the total by 26 points.  We'll look for another high-scoring game on Sunday, as the Saints are 13-5 Over the total if they went Over their previous game.  And they're 58-42 Over as home underdogs.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Indianapolis/Jacksonville game.  The first meeting this season was a low-scoring game, as the Jaguars won 24-0.  And that was the 4th straight meeting between these two division rivals that went under the total.  Also, each of these teams went under the total last week.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here.  But I'll take the Over, as NFL division games have gone Over the total 55% of the time if both teams went Under their previous game; the season's previous meeting went Under, as well as the teams' last 3 meetings overall.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Steelers were blown out by 35 points last week in Kenny Pickett's first start, which wasn't wholly unexpected.  But off that debacle, I'll grab the points with the Men of Steel, as NFL teams that scored less than 7 points, and lost by 35+ points have covered 63.9% since 1990.  Take Pittsburgh.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over New Orleans.  Cincinnati lost on the road last week to Baltimore, and it's back on the road this week.  It's been installed as a road favorite vs. the Saints, who won last week, 39-32, vs. Seattle.  The good news for Joe Burrow & Co. is that road favorites are 65.2% ATS off a road loss, if matched up against a foe off a win.  Take Cincinnati.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over North Carolina.  The Blue Devils were upset in overtime, 23-20, by Georgia Tech last week to fall to 4-2 on the season.  They'll now welcome their rival, North Carolina, to Durham, and have been installed as a home underdog.  UNC is 5-1 this year following its upset win at Miami last Saturday.  Unfortunately for Carolina, favorites off an upset win have covered just 32% over the last 43 years when playing a .666 (or better) conference foe off an upset loss.  Take Duke + the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Southern Cal.  The Utes were upset on the road last week by UCLA, 42-32.  And that was Utah's 2nd loss on the season.  But both losses were away from home; here, in Salt Lake City, Utah is 19-1 SU its last 20 vs. Division 1 FBS teams, and 14-6 ATS.  USC is now 6-0 after its blowout of Washington State.  But undefeated teams, with a 6-0 (or better) record, are a soft 33% as underdogs of more than 3 points against foes off an upset loss.  Additionally, Utah is 12-4 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a foe off a double-digit win.  And USC is a poor 26-48-1 ATS on the road off a win.  Take the Utes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson.  The Seminoles lost by 10 points to Clemson last season, so they play with revenge on Saturday night vs. the undefeated Tigers.  FSU's been installed as a home underdog in this ACC contest.  And the Seminoles have covered 67% as revenge-minded home dogs since 1980 vs. conference rivals.  Even better:  Florida State lost on the road, 19-17, to NC State last week, which was its second straight loss.  But the Seminoles are 41-23-3 ATS off a SU road loss.  And single-digit ACC home dogs, off back to back losses, are a super 75% ATS vs. conference rivals off back to back wins.  Grab the points with Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State.  QB Will Levis was injured in Kentucky's 22-19 loss at Mississippi two weeks ago, and missed last week's home loss to South Carolina.  But Levis has been upgraded to 'probable' for this game.  The Wildcats have a solid defense, and are giving up just 16.3 ppg.  And that's key, as .666 (or better) home underdogs off back to back losses, that give up 20.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 64.7% since 1980.  Take Kentucky + the points.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Washington/Arizona game.  The Huskies lost at Arizona State, 45-38, last Saturday.  And that game total of 83 points was the most for a Huskies conference game since it beat California, 66-27, in 2016.  We'll look for a much lower-scoring game this evening, as Pac-12 teams have gone under 59% in conference games after a conference game that totaled more than 77 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over Texas State.  The Bobcats pulled off a major upset last week, as a 20-point home underdog against Appalachian State.  Texas State was outgained by 102 yards, yet stunned the Mountaineers, 36-24.  But off that upset win, we'll look for a letdown at Troy on Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, Sun Belt underdogs of more than 3 points have cashed just 12 of 49 games vs. conference foes off a straight-up win.  The Trojans come into this game on a 3-game win streak (and 4-game ATS win streak).  Unfortunately for the Bobcats, they're 9-18 ATS on the road vs. foes off a win, including 0-5 ATS their last five.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our Conference USA Total of the Year is on the UNDER in the Charlotte/UAB game.  Charlotte has the worst defense in college football, as it's giving up 46.3 ppg.  Not surprisingly, its last five games have all sailed over the total.  And each of its last four games have totaled more than 75 points.  But this horrendous defense has led to our Over/Under line being a bit inflated here.  If one throws out UAB's first game - a 59-0 win against FCS foe Alabama A&M - then its four games against Division 1 FBS teams have averaged 49.5 ppg.  UAB comes into this game off a 27-point blowout win over Middle Tenn.  And UAB has gone 'under' the total 16 of 24 following a double-digit win.  The Under also falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 64.5%.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over NC State.  In a battle of top 20-ranked clubs, we'll lay the points with the undefeated home team.  Syracuse has stormed out to a 5-0 record.  And it's also 4-1 ATS.  On Saturday, it will welcome a Wolfpack squad which is 5-1 SU, but just 2-4 ATS after dropping its 3rd straight "in Vegas" last weekend.  This will be the Wolfpack's 3rd road game of the season.  It lost ATS its first two.  And it's a wallet-breaking 8-33-2 ATS on the road when unrested, and priced from +7.5 to -7.5 points.  Take the Orange.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Oklahoma State.  TCU comes into this game with an unblemished 5-0 record.  And it's also an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS.  That bodes well for it on Saturday, as over the last 42 years, at Game 6 forward, NCAA teams that were undefeated both SU and ATS have covered the spread 64% of the time, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and were playing at home, or on a neutral field.  Additionally, the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Last year, the Cowboys crushed the Frogs, 63-17.  But TCU is a solid 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was favored at home, and owned an .800 (or better) win percentage.  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan game.  The Huskies have played all six of their games over the total this season, including their last two games that each totaled > 80 points, which has led to an inflated over/under line for this contest.  Northern Illinois has gone under the total 70% after back to back games where 70+ points were scored.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game here.  Take the Under.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Ohio/Western Michigan game.  Both of these teams come into this afternoon's game off high-scoring contests.  The Bobcats put up 55 points last week in a 55-34 blowout of Akron, while Western Michigan lost, 45-23, at home to Eastern Michigan.  The Broncos are 12-6 Under after allowing 40+ points, while Ohio is 16-8 Under after scoring 40+ points.  Take the Under.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Navy.  The Mustangs lost at Central Florida, 41-19, last week.  And that was their third straight loss, and 4th straight ATS defeat.  Meanwhile, Navy pulled off a big upset win against Tulsa, 53-21, as a 4.5-point home dog.  We'll lay the points with SMU tonight, as conference favorites of -3 (or more) points, on a 4-game ATS losing streak, have covered 75.8% since 1980 vs. foes on a 3-game ATS win streak, if their foe was off a SU win the previous week.  Moreover, SMU is a solid 29-18 ATS in Conference games off back to back losses, if it was also on a 2-game ATS losing streak.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders over the Chicago Bears.  Washington has lost its last four games, including a heartbreaking 21-17 defeat last week vs. Tennessee.  The Commanders had the ball first-and-goal on the Titans' 1-yard line, with less than a half-minute to go in the game.  But they couldn't get the ball into the end zone and the game ended with an interception on the 3rd down play.  The Bears also lost last week to the Vikings, 29-22, but covered the 8.5-point spread.  We'll take Washington in this match-up, as road teams have covered the spread 62% since 2005 if they were off back to back losses, not getting more than 3 points, and were playing a non-division foe off an ATS win.  Even better:  the Commanders are 9-0 ATS their last nine meetings vs. the Bears in Chicago.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana.  The Rajin' Cajuns come into tonight's game off 3 straight losses, but they covered the spread in their most recent game -- a 20-17 home loss to South Alabama.  Meanwhile, Marshall defeated Gardner Webb, 28-7, to start October, but failed to cover the 31.5-point spread.  And that was the Thundering Herd's third straight ATS defeat.  Marshall's been installed as a double-digit favorite tonight.  And NCAA home teams, priced from -7 to -25 points, have been solid (108-75-3 ATS) off three straight ATS losses when matched up against foes off a point spread win.  Lay the points with Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Dallas.  Last week, the Rams were throttled by the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, 24-9.  And that continued coach Sean McVay's point spread failures following back-to-back wins, as the Rams are now 11-28 ATS in that situation.  But the Rams excel following a straight-up loss, as they're 14-6 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in those games.  Even better:  defending Super Bowl champs have covered 72% following a road game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points.  And Dallas is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points off back to back ATS wins.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the San Francisco/Carolina game.  Both of these teams have been playing low-scoring games this season.  San Francisco's 4 games have gone under the total by 11.87 ppg, while Carolina's 4 games have gone under by 1.62 ppg.  This game is a technical play for me, as it falls into Totals systems that have records of 101-51, 78-53, 71-43, 64-34 and 40-12.  Additionally, the Panthers are 8-2 OVER the total following 3+ Unders, while the Niners are 6-2 OVER after 3 straight games under.  Take the 49ers/Panthers Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over San Francisco.  The Niners played an emotional game last week when they took down the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, 24-9, in San Francisco.  Off that big divisional win, I expect a letdown in this non-division road game.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL road favorites have covered just 37% vs. non-division foes off a SU/ATS loss, if our road favorite was off a Monday Night divisional contest.  Take Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons come into this game with a 4-0 ATS record, and have won their last 2 straight up as underdogs vs. the Browns and Seahawks.  They're also covering the spread by an average of 5.12 ppg (Tampa's covering by just 1.37 ppg).  Unfortunately for the Falcons, Tom Brady's teams have gone 19-0 ATS off a straight-up loss, if they owned a worse point spread differential than their opponent, and their opponent was off back to back wins!  Take Tampa Bay minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Tennessee/Washington game.  The Commanders had trouble scoring in their last two games but they faced two tough defenses in Philadelphia and Dallas.  The Eagles are giving up just 17.5 ppg, while Dallas is surrendering just 15.5 ppg.  But the Titans are giving up 25.25 ppg, so I expect Carson Wentz & Co. to do much better on offense.  The Titans are 4-0 Over their last 4 (and 9-2 Over their last 11) as road favorites.  Take the Titans/Commanders game Over the total.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Seattle.  The Seahawks won a thriller in Detroit last week, 48-45, and are an underdog at New Orleans this Sunday.  We’ll lay the points, as favorites have covered 64.3% since 1980 if their opponent was off an upset win, and scored 48+ points the previous week.  Additionally, the Saints are 10-0 ATS when favored in non-division games, if they were off a loss, owned a losing record, and their opponent was off a win.  Lay the points with the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Tennessee.  Last week, the Titans upset the Indianapolis Colts, 24-17, as a 4-point road underdog, to move their record to 2-2 SU/ATS this season.  Washington is 1-3 SU/ATS after dropping a 25-10 decision to rival Dallas on the road.  We'll fade the Titans, as they're 0-9-1 ATS in non-division games following an upset win, if matched up against an opponent off a SU loss.  And Washington is a solid 37-21 ATS as an underdog of +10 (or less) points when playing a non-division foe off back to back wins.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The Eagles stunned Louisville last week, 34-33, as a 13.5-point home underdog.  And that was the first time all season that Boston College covered the point spread (BC is 2-3 SU, and 1-4 ATS, and has failed to cover by an average of 5.25 ppg this season).  The Eagles will remain in Chestnut Hill on Saturday night to take on the highly-ranked Tigers.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, they're a terrible 10-17-1 ATS at home off an upset win, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  And with Clemson in off a 30-20 win over then-No. 10 ranked-NC State, our 0-6 angle is satisfied.  Even worse for the Eagles:  Clemson is a dominant 23-7-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 16-0 ATS vs. < .750 foes that have an average point spread differential less than 3 ppg.  Lay the points with Clemson.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:00 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Texas-San Antonio.  Both teams enter this game with identical 3-2 SU/ATS records.  The Hilltoppers lost at home, 34-27, as a 5-point home favorite to Troy last Saturday, while UTSA defeated Middle Tennessee, 45-30.  This game is a rematch of last season's Conference USA championship game, which was won by the Roadrunners, 49-41.  We'll take Western Kentucky to avenge that defeat, as it is 16-0 ATS on the road when priced from -3 to +12 points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 6 pm, our selection is on Texas-San Antonio and Western Kentucky Under the total.  The Roadrunners have played all five of their games over the total.  And their games have totaled 72, 79, 61, 76 and 75 points.  These extremely high-scoring games have led to a very high Over/Under line for this game.  I think the line is too high.  Indeed, NCAA games with Over/Under lines greater than 71 points have gone under the total 58% of the time if a team's previous two games went over the total, and each totaled more than 71 points.  Additionally, the Under falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 64.1%.  Take the Hilltoppers and Roadrunners Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets fired coach Geoff Collins and athletic director Todd Stansbury last month on the heels of a 27-10 loss to UCF (which was Georgia Tech's 9th straight loss to a Division 1 FBS opponent).  Brent Key was named interim head football coach, and his team rewarded him with a 26-21 upset win at Pittsburgh last Saturday.  The Jackets were massive 21.5-point underdogs in that game, and were outgained on the day by the Panthers.  But Georgia Tech took advantage of 3 Pittsburgh turnovers to get the outright win.  But off that upset, I expect a letdown vs. Duke, as losing teams have covered just 33% as home dogs since 1983 off upset wins as a dog of more than 21 points.  Take Duke to rout the Yellow Jackets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Utah.  This is a great Pac-12 battle at the Rose Bowl on Saturday afternoon.  Utah opened its season with an upset loss at the hands of the Florida Gators, 29-26.  But the Utes have rebounded to win and cover each of their next four games, and have been installed as a road favorite here, in Pasadena.  UCLA, for its part, survived a scare by South Alabama in Week 3, and is now 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS.  And both teams are undefeated in Pac-12 play, with 2-0 records (USC and Oregon are also undefeated).  The Bruins have historically been strong as a home underdog, including an awesome 31-12-2 ATS against foes not off a point spread loss.  Meanwhile, Utah is an underwhelming 9-19 ATS as a single-digit road favorite vs. an opponent off a SU win.  And Pac-12 road teams, with a 2-0 (or better) conference record, have covered just 30 of 78 games vs. foes with a winning Pac-12 record.  Take UCLA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on Toledo and Northern Illinois Under the total.  We had our NCAA Total of the Month in September on the Under in Toledo's game vs. San Diego State, and we'll come right back with the Under in this game vs. Northern Illinois.  The Huskies are 43-24 Under in home conference games.  And the Under also falls into a 98-49 Totals system of mine.  Take the Under.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Missouri.  The Tigers almost pulled off the season's biggest upset last week when they took #1 Georgia down to the wire before falling, 26-22, as a 31-point home dog.  That will be a tough game to bounce back from, as NCAA teams have covered just 31.8% after losing to the defending National Champs by a touchdown or less.  And the SEC road has not been kind to Missouri, as the Tigers are a dismal 7-20 SU and 8-19 ATS at SEC rivals, including 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points.  Florida is a powerful 71% since 1980 as a double-digit home favorite vs. losing teams off an ATS win.  Lay the points with the Gators.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs and Jayhawks are both undefeated SU and ATS this season.  TCU is 4-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over the Oklahoma Sooners, 55-24, while Kansas is 5-0 SU/ATS following an upset win over Iowa State, 14-11.  We'll fade TCU as road favorites off an upset win in which they scored 50+ points are an abysmal 1-12 ATS their last 13.  Take Kansas + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Memphis.  The Coogs have largely stumbled this season, as they're 1-4 ATS, and have lost two games outright as 8.5 and 4.5-point favorites.  Their lone point spread win this season was when they were installed as a 4-point underdog at Texas Tech.  And they covered the spread in that game -- a 33-30 loss.  Houston is 22-11-1 ATS its last 34 as an underdog, including 14-4-1 ATS on the road.  That bodes well for Houston here.  As does the fact that the Cougars are 10-2 ATS off an upset loss at home to a conference rival.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are a wallet-breaking 10-35-1 ATS as a single-digit home favorite!  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Carolina Panthers.  The Cardinals made the playoffs last season, but one of their not-so-good games came at the hands of the Panthers, who blew them out, 34-10, as a 7-point road underdog.  And, improbably, that was the sixth straight double-digit win (including 3 straight upsets) by Carolina over Arizona in this series.  The Cardinals have surely gotten off to a worrisome 1-2 start this year.  They know they can’t fall to 1-3 as that might be too deep of a hole from which to dig out.  Part of the reason Arizona is 1-2 is that it was saddled with a difficult opening schedule.  Indeed, its first 3 opponents (Chiefs, Raiders, Rams) also made the Playoffs last season.  But this week's opponent -- Carolina -- was just 5-12 last season, so it's a step-down in class for Arizona.  For technical support, consider that NFL underdogs with a losing record, that made the Playoffs the previous season, have gone 19-2 ATS in Week 4, if they were playing another losing team.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Houston.  The Chargers were upset at home by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, 38-10.  But off that upset loss, I’ll look for Los Angeles to rebound here, as road favorites off 17-point (or worse) upset losses have covered 72% since 1998.  Even better:  the Chargers are 49-29-6 ATS off an upset loss.  And they're also 27-6-2 ATS on the road following a game where they scored less than 14 points, provided they weren't getting more than 10 in the current game.  Lay the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars OVER the total.  The Jaguars are giving up just 12.66 ppg, and outscoring their foes by 15.33 ppg, while Philly is surrendering just 16.66 ppg, and outscoring its foes by 12 ppg.  I think this will be a high scoring affair.  At Game 4 forward, when you get a team (like Jacksonville) holding its opponents to 13 or less points per game, its games have gone Over the total 60.1% since 1980 if the Line was greater than 41 points.  And in matchups between two teams with scoring margins > 7 ppg, those games have gone Over the total 57% since 1980 when the line was greater than 43 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  Washington opened its season with a nice win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but lost to Detroit and Philly in Weeks 2 + 3.  In contrast, the Cowboys opened their season with a loss to Tampa, but rebounded in Weeks 2 + 3 with back to back upset wins, including a 23-16 victory at the New York Giants this past Monday.  Unfortunately for Dallas, NFL teams off a division upset win (and back to back upset wins, overall) have covered just 22% the past 43 seasons vs. division foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for the Cowboys this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that this has been an underdog-oriented rivalry, with the dog going 50-26-1 ATS in the last 77 meetings.  Grab the points with Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30pm, our selection is on the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers minus the points over Rice. This is a huge revenge game for the Blazers, as they were favored by 23.5 points last year at home vs. Rice, but lost, 30-24.  The Owls hung tough at Houston last Saturday, but ultimately succumbed to the Cougars, 34-27, as a 17.5-point road underdog.  UAB had last week off after defeating Georgia Southern two weeks ago, 35-21, as an 11.5-point home favorite.  We played on UAB in that victory, and will come back with them here, on the road, at Rice.  UAB is a solid 14-7-2 ATS when playing with rest vs. a conference foe.  And Rice is a horrid 1-10 ATS when getting 2+ points against a revenge-minded foe.  Lay the points with Alabama-Birmingham.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Clemson/North Carolina State game.  Earlier in the week, it appeared as if Columbia, SC may have been in for some real bad weather today.  And the Over/Under line got as low as 39.5 in anticipation of that.  But the city has been fortunate to largely escape the wrath of Hurricane Ian, and today's game will be played under mostly cloudy skies, and with low wind.  So, the Over/Under line has snapped back to where it was last Sunday night.  Last week, the Wolfpack blew out UConn, 41-10, while the Tigers won, 51-45, over Wake Forest.  But I look for a lower-scoring game here, as the Tigers are 16-9 UNDER after playing a game Over the total.  And they're 28-12 UNDER after scoring 45+ points in their previous game.  Moreover, ACC games have gone 55-30 UNDER if both teams went OVER in their previous game.  Take the Wolfpack/Tigers game UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Baylor.  This game has been circled for months on the Cowboys' calendar, as Baylor knocked it off in the Big 12 Title game last December.  The Bears were a touchdown underdog in that game, but won a thriller, 21-16, when the Cowboys' Dezmon Jackson came up inches short of a game-winning TD when he dove for the pylon on a 4th-and-goal play with less than 30 seconds left in the game.  Two weeks ago, Oklahoma State blew out Pine Bluff, 63-7.  And Okie State is 41-12 ATS off a win in which it scored 50+ points.  Additionally, early in the season, rested, revenging road teams have cashed 65.9% when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if not favored by 7+ points in the current game.  Take the Cowboys + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over James Madison.  This is JMU's first season at the Division 1 (FBS) level, and it's off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start, with three impressive victories over Middle Tenn (44-7), Norfolk (63-7) and Appalachian St (32-28).  We played on the Dukes last week, as a touchdown underdog, and it stormed back from an early 28-3 deficit to upend Appalachian St in Boone.  The Dukes return home to Harrisonburg for this game, and have been installed as a greater-than-three-touchdown favorite against the Bobcats.  Off that big emotional win (its first conference game at this level), I'll look for a letdown on Saturday.  Take Texas State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan.  The Hawkeyes come into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins, as they held their last two opponents (Rutgers, Nevada) to 10 and 0 points, respectively.  For the season, Iowa's given up just 5.7 ppg.  And they're holding their opponents to a mere 2.2 yards per rush.  I like playing on certain defensive-minded underdogs with strong rush defenses.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 5 forward, NCAA underdogs that give up less than 14 points per game, and less than 2.75 ypr, are 122-68 ATS if they come into the game off a momentum-building win.  Even better:  if our puppy is playing at home vs. a conference foe, then our 122-68 ATS angle zooms to 21-5 ATS.  Take Iowa + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Temple.  This is a big revenge game for Memphis which was upset by Temple last season, 34-31, as an 11-point road favorite.  The Owls do come into this game off three straight ATS wins.  But all three of those games were at home.  In Temple's lone road game this season, it was blown out, 30-0, by Duke.  And that continued the Owls' road woes, as they're 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS away from home, including 0-5 SU/ATS since Oct 8, 2021.  Even worse:  Temple's 0-7 SU/ATS its last seven conference games, while Memphis is a solid 11-6 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.