At 12 Noon on Saturday, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Rutgers.  The Nittany Lions got off the schneid last week when they won and covered the spread for the first time all season (after five failures), on the road in Ann Arbor.  For me, that was a big "buy signal" as, in college football, when teams open the season with 3+ ATS losses, they generally do well after their initial ATS cover when playing a team off a SU/ATS win, itself.  The Scarlet Knights also won on the road last week, as they pulled off a major upset with a 37-30 triumph in West Lafayette vs. the Purdue Boilermakers, as a 13-point underdog.  They're now 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Unfortunately for Rutgers, double-digit home dogs have covered just 33.9% after pulling off an upset as a double-digit road dog.  And home dogs have also just cashed 37.1% over the last 41 seasons when they've owned both a better win percentage and ATS win percentage than their opponent.  Penn State has won the last 13 games in this series, and 12 of the 13 have been by a margin larger than the current point spread!  Indeed, the last five victories were by 25, 39, 29, 13 and 21 points.  The Nittany Lions fall into terrific 98-27 and 171-84 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road favorites off wins.  Lay the points with the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  We played on the Spartans last week vs. Northwestern, and they rewarded us with an outright win as a 13.5-point home underdog, 29-20.  But off that major upset, we'll go against the Green and White this Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, double-digit home dogs have covered just 36% vs. foes off a win, if our home dog won outright by 7+ points as a 7-point (or greater) home dog the previous week.  Even worse:  Big 10 teams have gone 4-24 SU and 7-20-1 ATS vs. Ohio State after an upset win the previous game, including 1-9-1 ATS when getting 18+ points.  Take the Buckeyes to massacre Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Baltimore was favored in the season's first meeting this year, but was upset by the Steelers, 28-24.  We'll grab the points in this rematch as, in match-ups between two teams with .500 (or better) records, underdogs of more than 4 points have cashed 71.1% when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home earlier in the season.  And the Ravens are also 21-11 ATS when installed as an underdog of +3 (or more) points, and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Ravens.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Last season, the Seahawks defeated Philly twice -- both by identical 17-9 scores -- in the regular season, and then, again, in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs.  But with double revenge, we'll step in and take the points with the home underdog tonight.  Indeed, the Eagles fall into a 28-12 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine which plays on certain revengers, at home, vs. .750 (or worse) foes.  And the Eagles also fall into a more general revenge system of mine which is 149-88 ATS since 1980 which plays on certain teams in non-division games with revenge against winning opponents.  Last week, the Seahawks had a huge divisional battle with Arizona, and emerged victorious by a 28-21 score.  But off that huge win, which moved the Seahawks to the lead in their division, I look for a letdown at Philadelphia tonight, as the Seahawks fall into a negative 6-25 ATS angle which fades certain teams off big division victories.  Take the Eagles + the generous spot.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Both of these teams have hopes of reaching the Super Bowl, though the Chiefs' are playing closer to that reality than than the Buccaneers.  Last week, Tampa lost for the 2nd time in its last three games to fall to 7-4 on the season.  The good news is that its four remaining games following this contest are all against sub-.500 ball clubs, so if the Bucs can win today, they'll stand an excellent chance to finish on a 5-game win streak, and tally 12 wins for the season.  First things first, of course, and they'll need to upset a Chiefs squad which has won its last five games.  But off its loss on Monday Night Football to the Rams, I love Tampa to rebound this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that, at Game 12 forward, winning teams have cashed 35 of 45 non-division games off a straight-up loss, if they were an underdog (or PK) at home, including 14-1 ATS if its opponent was playing back-to-back road games.  And the Buccaneers are also 10-4 ATS as a single-digit home dog, if they had a winning record, and their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the points with Tom Brady & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  New York has yet to win a game this season.  But after dropping their first 10 games, we'll grab the points with the Flyboys as a divisional home underdog.  Last week, the Jets fought hard against the Chargers in 6-point defeat, but covered the 10-point spread.  And that was New York's 2nd straight ATS win.  Of course, it hasn't hurt New York that it finally has a full complement of wide receivers, with Perriman, Mims and Crowder all on the field of late.  And QB Sam Darnold will also be back for this game.  I look for New York to make it three-in-a-row this afternoon, as NFL teams that have lost 7+ games in a row have gone 27-10-2 ATS off a point spread win when they were matched up against a division opponent, and not favored by 3+ points (and 8-0 ATS off 10+ wins, as an underdog of +6 or more).  Likewise, winless teams with an 0-4 (or worse) record have cashed 70% over the last 35 seasons vs. winning division rivals, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from +6.5 to +10.5 vs. foes off an ATS loss.  Additionally, New York falls into 240-146, 298-224 and 250-153 ATS systems of mine that play on certain losing teams against winning foes.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tennessee Titans/Indianapolis Colts game.  These two teams met just two weeks ago, and the over/under line was a couple of points less, at 49, than it is for this game here.  Indianapolis won that game, 34-17, so it went over the total by 2 points.  Now, for this game, the oddsmakers have adjusted the over/under line.  I believe it's an over-adjustment, and will look for a lower-scoring game, especially since this game will be played at Indianapolis.  Indeed, the Colts have gone 'under' in 25 of 34 home division contests, including 7-0 'under' when the line was greater than 48 points.  And this game also falls into 19-0 and 57-33 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cleveland.  The Jaguars won on Opening Day, but haven't won since, as they're currently riding a 9-game losing streak.  In an attempt to get back into the win column, coach Doug Marrone has tabbed veteran Mike Glennon to start at quarterback this afternoon.  The Jags have been installed as a 7-point home underdog against a Browns team that enters off two straight wins.  But those two wins both came at home; on the road, the Browns have only won 17 of 95 games (40-53 ATS), and they've cashed just 7 of 25 when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-6 ATS their last six.  Over the last 40 years, at Game 10 forward, underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 143-99 ATS if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over South Carolina.  The Bulldogs lost last year at home to these Gamecocks, even though the Bulldogs were favored in that game by 20.5 points.  But you know what they say about "paybacks."  And I fully expect Georgia to avenge last year's loss, as it has gone 17-0-2 ATS when playing with revenge and favored by less than 30 points.  Take Georgia to crush South Carolina.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over LSU.  Last season, the Tigers annihilated the Aggies, 50-7.  Of course, LSU was a better team last year, as it won the national championship.  This season is a much different story, and the Tigers have been installed as a double-digit road underdog on Saturday night.  We'll fade LSU off its 27-24 win at Arkansas last week, as defending national champs have gone 0-11 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points off a conference win.  Meanwhile SEC teams off a conference win are a poor 5-15 ATS when playing away from home against a revenge-minded Texas A&M squad.  Lay the points with the Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over Baylor.  We had a big play last week on Iowa State against Kansas State, and were rewarded with a 45-0 shutout win.  But we will reverse course this evening and take the Wildcats off that whitewash.  Indeed, Kansas State is 19-0 ATS vs. Big 12 Conference foes if Kansas State owned a .375 (or better) win percentage, lost its previous game by 20+ points, and was not an underdog of 7+ points in the current game.  That bodes well for the Wildcats in Waco this evening.  As does the fact that the Bears are 4-26 ATS off a conference loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points against an opponent off a double-digit loss. 

At 4 pm, our selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Mississippi State.  The Rebels had last weekend off following back to back SU/ATS wins over Vanderbilt and South Carolina.  And that bodes well for them in this game, as rested teams, off back to back wins, in which they scored 45+ points, have gone 37-14 ATS.  Last season, the Bulldogs upset the Rebels, 21-20, which was the second straight year this rivalry game was won by the Bulldogs.  But the revenge-minded team has gone 24-14 ATS in this series, including a perfect 4-0 ATS at home when playing with double-revenge.  Take Ole Miss minus the points this afternoon

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Auburn.  Alabama's 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season, and has covered its last four.  And none of those games has been close, as the Tide has won by 17, 31, 41 and 60 points.  Today, they'll host rival Auburn, which upset them last season, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  I love Alabama to avenge that defeat, as Nick Saban's teams have gone 26-12 ATS when they were playing with revenge from a loss in a game coached by Saban (and a perfect 10-0 ATS if their foe's Win Percentage was between .701 and .999).  Take Alabama.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Since they lost at Notre Dame three weeks ago, the Tigers have not played a game.  So, they'll have had plenty of time to rest up for this game.  We'll lay the points with the Tigers, as winning teams that won 10+ games the previous season have covered 57% of the time over the last 41 seasons off an upset loss, if they were matched up against a foe off a SU win.  Clemson is 14-7-1 ATS when it was playing with rest.  Take the Tigers minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Northwestern.  The Wildcats shocked Wisconsin, 17-7, as a touchdown underdog last Saturday.  But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Pat Fitzgerald's men as a road favorite.  For technical support, consider that conference double-digit road favorites are a woeful 38.8% the past 41 years off a home upset win, if they're playing a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Michigan State.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers remain undefeated, at 8-0, after last week's big win over Appalachian State (which was 6-1 entering the contest).  And they have the 9-1 Liberty Flames on deck.  So, don't be surprised if the Chanticleers get caught looking past the 2-9 Bobcats.  But they really shouldn't as Texas State has covered its last four, including an upset win last weekend over Arkansas State.  This will be the Bobcats' final home game of the season.  And NCAA teams playing their last home game generally rise to the occasion when they play great opponents, as they've covered 60% over the last 41 seasons vs. .900 (or better) foes off an ATS win.  Take Texas State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma St Cowboys minus the points over Texas Tech.  Last week, the Cowboys were blown out, 41-13, in Norman by their rivals, the Oklahoma Sooners.  But Okie State is back home in Stillwater today, and we'll lay the points against Texas Tech.  Since 1980, .680 (or better) home teams have covered 60.4% vs. conference foes if our home team was blown out by 20+ points on the road in their last game, and is not favored by 14+ points.  Take the Cowboys.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Kent State.  The Bulls suffered a rare conference ATS loss last week when they only won by 25, as a 31.5-point favorite.  But their victory moved their mark to 3-0 SU, so this game against Kent State (also 3-0) will go a long way toward determining the MAC Title.  The Bulls have been as good at home for their friends in Las Vegas, as any team could be, as they're 17-2 ATS their last 19, including 13-0 ATS their last 13 vs. Mid-American Conference rivals.  Take Buffalo minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Broncos are 3-0 (and scoring 50.3 ppg), while the Huskies are 0-3 (and giving up 40 ppg), so it's no surprise that Western Michigan is favored by almost three touchdowns today.  Last season, the Huskies shocked the Broncos, 17-14, as a 10-point underdog, so the Broncos will be out for revenge today.  They should get it, as NCAA teams off 3+ wins, that average at least 50 ppg on offense, have covered 61% over the last 41 years as a favorite of 34 points or less (and 73% if their opponent gives up more than 30 ppg).  Take Western Michigan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights lost 36-33 last week to the Cincinnati Bearcats, but covered as a 4-point home underdog.  They're now favored by double-digits on the road in their final game of the regular season, and I expect a letdown this afternoon against a South Florida team playing its final home game of the season.  Indeed, teams playing their final regular season game of the season on the road, off a straight-up loss in their previous game, have been terrible as big favorites, cashing just 23 of 64 when laying more than 10 points against an opponent playing its final home game of the season.  And the Knights also fall into a negative 19-52 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU home losses.  Finally, the Bulls have covered 18 of 24 as an underdog of +9 (or more) points off an ATS defeat, including 5-0 ATS vs. .667 (or worse) opponents.  Take South Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Notre Dame.  The Heels are lighting up the scoreboard this season.  UNC has scored 156 points over the last three weeks, average 43.1 ppg for the season (against foes that give up 31.2), and get 7.7 yards per play (against foes that allow 6.0 ypp).  They've won all four home games this season (3-1 ATS), and are 10-4 ATS their last 14 at Kenan Memorial Stadium.  Even better:  when installed as a home dog of +5 or more points, North Carolina's a superb 15-4-1 ATS its last 20, including a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes when priced from +5 to +11. I won't fade those numbers.  Nor will I fade a home underdog off back to back wins which scored 100+ points over those two games.  Since 1980, such teams have covered 61.2% of the time.  Take North Carolina to roll at home.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Iowa.  Last week, Nebraska turned in a horrid performance, as it lost 41-23, as a 17-point home favorite.  But off that debacle, we will step in and grab the double-digits with Scott Frost's men.  It's true that Iowa's off 3 SU/ATS wins, but teams off back to back wins have cashed just 39% since 1980 when matched up against a conference foe off an upset loss, if that foe failed to cover by 31+ points in its previous game.  And if our 'play-against' team (here, Iowa) is favored between 10 and 15.5 points, then it has gone a wallet-busting 0-15 ATS.  Take Nebraska.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Iowa State.  The Longhorns had last week off to rest, and to prepare for this pivotal Big 12 Conference match-up.  Last year, the Cyclones snapped Texas' 3-game win streak in the series with a 23-21 win in Ames.  But the Longhorns have still won 13 of the past 15 meetings.  And Texas is a super 7-0 ATS its last seven when rested, and playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU win.  Take Texas.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos minus the points over Utah State.  Last year, Utah State handed New Mexico a 38-25 home defeat, so the Lobos will be out to avenge that loss tonight.  New Mexico was blown out by 28 points by Air Force in its last game.  But off that defeat, we'll take the Lobos to bounce back, as revenge-minded road favorites of less than 7 points (or PK) have gone 77-43 ATS off a loss by more than 11 points.  Even better:  Utah State is 0-4 SU/ATS on the season, and has failed to cover by an average of 12.62 ppg.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Dallas.  Last week, we played on the Cowboys as our NFL Game of the Month, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Minnesota Vikings.  But we'll switch gears, and go against Dallas today.  The Cowboys and Redskins, er, Football Team, have had a heated rivalry for decades.  And it's been profitable to take the underdog in this series, as the dog has gone 49-24-1 ATS.  Even better:  if the favorite (here, Dallas) was coming off a straight-up win, then the underdog has gone 31-10-1 ATS, 75.6%.  Additionally, teams with horrible defenses (like Dallas (31.8 ppg)) that give up more than 30.25 ppg have covered just 24 of 75 home games off a straight-up win.  Take the Redskins + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Los Angeles.  Last week, the Rams had a HUGE divisional win against the Seahawks.  Seattle was atop the division at the time, with a 6-2 record.  But the Rams defeated Seattle, 23-16, as a 3.5-point home favorite.  Unfortunately for L.A., teams often suffer letdowns following a victory in division games between two strong teams, and especially when they go on the road to play a non-division foe.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, in the 2nd half of the season, .666 (or better) road underdogs of less than 5 points have covered just 18% in non-division games following a victory over a .666 (or better) division rival!  Even better, in his career, Tom Brady's teams have gone 10-1-1, 91% ATS as a single-digit favorite on Monday nights.  Lay the points with the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders upset the defending Super Bowl champs, 40-32, earlier this season at Arrowhead Stadium.  But I love KC to avenge that defeat, as defending Super Bowl champs, with a winning record, have cashed 82% over the last 41 years in the regular season when playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the year.  And NFL favorites of more than 3 points have gone 11-0 ATS in the regular season since 2010 when playing with revenge from an earlier loss in the season as a 7-point favorite.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders to go under the total.  The Chiefs were upset at home by Las Vegas, 40-32, as a 10-point favorite back on October 11.  Needless to say, Kansas City will be strongly motivated tonight to avenge that defeat.  And, generally speaking, NFL teams that were upset earlier in the season, and gave up 28+ points in that loss, do exact revenge, as they've covered the spread 55% of the time since 1984, including 10-0 ATS their last 10.  And a primary reason that our revengers do better against the spread in the 2nd meeting is that their defense plays much better.  Indeed, our games in this situation have gone 'under' 142-99-6.  Before giving up 40 to the Raiders in the last meeting, the Chiefs had allowed just 9, 10 and 3 points to the Raiders in the three meetings previous to that (all 3 went 'under').   Finally, six of KC's last seven road games have gone 'under,' as have 23 of the Raiders' last 30 division contests.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Jets are 0-9 on the season, which will keep many bettors away from them.  But not us.  Indeed, one of the things I love to do is play on winless NFL teams, as road underdogs.  And if I can avoid going against a strong opponent, with a win percentage of .666 (or better), then that's much preferred.  Fortunately for us, the Jets aren't playing a great team on Sunday, as the Chargers have won just two games, themselves, this season.  And, dating back to 1985, winless teams, at Game 4 forward, are 92-48 ATS as road underdogs vs. sub-.666 opponents.  Take New York + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Miami.  Broncos QB Drew Lock has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the home underdog this afternoon.  Last week, Denver was blown out by the Raiders in Las Vegas, 37-12, while the Dolphins won (and covered) their 5th straight with a 29-21 victory against the Chargers.  We'll take the points with Denver, as home underdogs that gave up more than 31 points in their previous game (and failed to cover by 15+ points in that defeat) have rebounded to go 161-111 ATS vs. .363 (or better) opponents.  Even better:  the Broncos have always been a great team at home when they weren't laying a lot of points.  Indeed, dating back to 1981, Denver is a spectacular 52-24-4 ATS at home when not laying more than 2 points!  I won't fade those numbers.  Take the home underdog + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans.  This is a great spot for Atlanta, as it won't have to face Drew Brees this afternoon, after he sustained a rib fracture in his last game.  Thus, Jameis Winston will be under center for New Orleans, and it's a big drop-off from Brees to Winston.  Atlanta has played extremely well for its new head coach, Raheem Morris, including wins in both of their road games, at Minnesota (40-23) and at Carolina (25-17).  And the Falcons have now won 6 straight division road games (5-1 ATS), including a 26-9 victory here in New Orleans last season (as a 14-point underdog).  And Atlanta's 24-7 ATS as a road underdog vs. the Saints.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England.  Last week, we played on both Houston and New England, and cashed each of them.  But, unlike New England, which won outright as a 7-point underdog vs. Baltimore, our win on Houston was most fortunate.  The Texans were a 4-point underdog, and down by 3 points with about a minute left in the game when Cleveland RB Nick Chubb scampered down the sideline for an apparent 60-yard TD run.  But instead of crossing the goal line for a 9-point Browns lead, Chubb chose to step out of bounds at the 1-yard line so the Texans could not get the ball back with 56 seconds left.  Of course it was technically a smart decision, even if Houston would have had much less than a 1% chance to score 10 points in 56 seconds.  But it was still unbelievably lucky, as not many in Chubb's shoes would have eschewed a 60-yard TD score.  Here, I don't think Houston will need such good fortune, as I believe they'll pull the upset over the Patriots as a home underdog.  One of the things I love to do when betting on the NFL is to go against road favorites in non-division games after pulling off upset wins as an underdog of +5.5 (or more) points.  These road favorites generally suffer letdowns, as they've covered just 23% over the last 41 seasons.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack minus the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 8-0 and ranked among the Top 25, but have been installed as an underdog on Tobacco Road in this non-conference affair.  This will be the 3rd ACC opponent that Liberty has faced this season, but it will be the first one which currently has a winning record.  NC State is 5-3 on the season, and it has dominated non-conference foes in Raleigh, with 16 straight wins, and 29 of their last 30 (11-6 ATS).  Even better:  at Game 8 forward, undefeated, unrested underdogs, priced from +2 to +6 points, are 0-13 SU/ATS away from home.  Lay the points with the Wolfpack.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  Jim Harbaugh's men have (once again) been a major disappointment this season.  After a 49-24 blowout win at Minnesota to start the season, Michigan has lost to Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin.  They'll try to right the ship tonight, and I believe they will, as NCAA teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have gone 67-47 ATS in conference games when favored by more than 5 points.  Last year, the Wolverines were also blown out by Wisconsin, 35-14, in the game immediately preceding the Rutgers match-up.  And Michigan bounced back off that loss to rout Rutgers, 52-0.  Same thing here.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas State.  Iowa State comes into this game with an extra week off following its 38-31 victory over Baylor two weeks ago.  Kansas State, meanwhile, is on a 2-game losing streak following its 20-18 defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats won last year's meeting, in Manahattan.  But we'll take the Cyclones to avenge that defeat here, in Ames.  Iowa State is a super 13-5 ATS at home when playing with revenge, while rested Big 12 Conference home favorites have cashed 70 of 117 off a straight-up win.  Lay the points with the Cyclones.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA.  We played on the Ducks last week in Pullman, WA, and got the cash when they won, 43-29, as a 10-point favorite vs. Washington St.  On Saturday, they're back in Eugene, and will welcome the Bruins, who upset California, 34-10, as a 3.5-point home dog last Sunday.  Unfortunately for the Bruins, double-digit underdog have covered just 26% of conference road games over the last 41 seasons after a 20-point (or greater) upset win over a conference foe, if their current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for UCLA in this match-up.  Nor does the fact that the Bruins, themselves, are 1-9 ATS on the Pac-12 road following an upset win at home.  Meanwhile, Oregon is a stellar 73-47-2 ATS off a double-digit conference win, including 9-2 ATS vs. conference foes off an upset win.  Take the Ducks to blow out the Bruins.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Rice.  Both of these teams have had several weeks off since their last games.  Rice hasn't played since October 31, when it blew out Southern Miss, 30-6, while North Texas hasn't taken the field since October 17, when it smashed Middle Tennessee, 52-35!  We'll lay the points with North Texas, as rested Conference USA home teams have gone 81-57 ATS vs. conference foes.  Additionally, road teams have gone 34-75 ATS off a 20-point win, when matched up against an opponent off a win by more than 7 points, if our road team was not favored by 3+ points.  Take North Texas minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Illinois.  Both of the teams pulled off upsets last week:  Illinois went into Piscataway, and defeated Rutgers, 23-20, as a 5-point dog, while Nebraska upended Penn State, 30-23, here in Lincoln.  That was Illinois' first win of the season (against three losses), and they'll be hard-pressed to make it two-upsets-in-a-row on this Saturday.  Indeed, over the last 41 seasons, losing teams have gone just 34.1% ATS as a road underdog, if they won outright as a conference road underdog their previous game, and were now matched up against a conference foe off a win.  Even better:  Nebraska's a perfect 9-0 ATS when priced as a favorite of -15 to -30 points against a .500 (or worse) opponent off an upset win, while Illinois is 0-9 ATS when getting more than 15 points off an upset win.  Take Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals to go UNDER the total.  These two teams less than four weeks ago, and the Cardinals came away with a 37-34 victory, in overtime.  And the Cardinals have now scored 30+ points in five straight games (33.2 avg.), and have gone 'over' the total in three straight.  That has contributed to this over/under being a couple points higher than it was just a few games ago!  But consider that Arizona's last three games -- that each went 'over' -- were all at home (where it averages 30.6 ppg (compared to a lower amount on the road)).  And also consider that, of Arizona's four road games this season, it has yet to face a team with a winning record!  Arizona's four road games have come against teams with a combined record of 9-29.  So, this will be a much more difficult test for the 6-3 Cardinals' offense, notwithstanding the fact that Seattle's defense is allowing 28.5 ppg at home this season.  The Seahawks should be in an angry mood on Thursday, as they're coming off back to back losses, and will be playing with revenge from that overtime game in Arizona which they led by 10 with less than seven minutes to go.  For technical support, consider that the Seahawks have gone under the total 88% of the time since 1980 when playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they gave up 28+ points (holding their opponents to an average of 13.3 ppg in those games).  And all four of Arizona's road games this season have also gone UNDER the total.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Tulane.  Both of these teams enter tonight's game on win streaks.  The Golden Hurricane have won all four of their games this season, including last week's comeback win over SMU (which we cashed).  Similarly, Tulane is on a 3-game win streak, and has covered five in a row.  But when one looks deeper within Tulane's set of games, what jumps out is that the Green Wave have won ALL FOUR of their games when they were favored (and have covered by an average of 25.6 ppg).  But in their games as an underdog, they've lost ALL THREE games (and have failed to cover by an average of 1.3 ppg).  Now, Tulane is back in the role of an underdog -- after winning and covering three straight as a favorite.  And one of the things I love to do is fade such teams that have such of a "role reversal."  Indeed, after three straight ATS wins as a favorite, teams installed as underdogs of +3 (or more) points have covered just 30 of 85 games away from home vs. conference foes.  That doesn't bode well for the Green Wave tonight.  Nor does the fact that Tulane is an awful 0-12 ATS on the road as an underdog of less than 8 points (or PK) off an ATS win.  Take Tulsa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas over the Western Michigan Broncos.  The Broncos are 2-0 SU/ATS after last week's thrilling, come-from-behind, 41-38 win in the final seconds vs. Toledo.  They're averaging 49.5 ppg and 8.01 ypp, which leads the MAC.  They'll face a staunch test tonight in Mount Pleasant, as the Chips are also 2-0 SU/ATS, and tops in MAC defense this season (18.5 ppg allowed), while allowing just 4.7 ypp.  Last week, we played on the Broncos vs. the Rockets, so we were ecstatic when they recovered the onside kick, and subsequently scored on a fake play designed to make the Rockets think they were going to down the ball to stop the clock.  Unfortunately, I think the magic will end for Western Michigan tonight.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on home underdogs (or PK) after they've gotten off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start, if they were playing with revenge against a conference foe.  Since 1980, our revengers have covered 63% of the time!  With the Chippewas, indeed, playing with revenge from a 31-15 loss to the Broncos in Kalamazoo last season, we'll take Central Michigan on this Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Akron.  Last week, the Zips went into Athens, and lost, 24-10, to the Bobcats to fall to 0-2 on the season.  In Akron's first game, they were blown out, 58-13, at home by Western Michigan.  Now, the Zips will try to contain a Kent State offense which was in fine form last week when it posted 62 points in a 38-point blowout win at Bowling Green.  The Golden Flashes are now 2-0, and return home to face a Zips team against which they've covered four straight.  We'll lay the points with the Flashes, as home favorites of less than 28 points have gone 84-43 ATS in conference games after a SU/ATS conference road victory by 35+ points.  Even better:  the Zips are a horrid 1-13 ATS as an underdog of less than 27 points.  Take Kent State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Chicago.  The Vikings started this season 1-5, but have reeled off back to back wins to move their record to 3-5 on the season.  Last year, of course, Minnesota was 10-6, and qualified for the playoffs as the NFC #6 seed.  They upset New Orleans in the Wild Card round, before losing, 27-10, to San Francisco in the divisional round.  So, it was a bit of a surprise that the Vikes got 2020 off to such a poor start.  But they're trying to right their ship, and tonight's game will be critical if they're to make a push for this year's playoffs.  Last season, even though Minnesota won 10 regular season games, the Bears won both meetings.  The good news for the Vikings is that NFL single digit favorites, that owned a winning record the previous season, have gone 70-40 ATS when playing with revenge from two losses the previous season.  Even better:  NFL favorites off back to back wins, with a win percentage of .375 (or worse) have cashed 64.7% since 1983.  And winning teams (like the Bears), off 3+ losses, have cashed just 28% since 1994 if they were an underdog (or PK).  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Baltimore.  These two teams met last year in Baltimore, and the Ravens won 37-20, as a 3-point home underdog.  Now, however, it's the Ravens who are installed as the road favorite.  Last week, Baltimore upset the Colts in Indianapolis, 24-10, to move to 6-2 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Patriots struggled to defeat the winless Jets, 30-27, as a 9-point favorite, so they failed to cover the spread for the fifth time in eight tries.  Can the Ravens win (and cover) back-to-back road games?  It's not likely, as .666 (or better) teams have covered just 23 of 71 on the road off a road upset win, if they weren't getting more than 3 points, and their opponent was off a point spread loss.  Even worse, the Ravens have lost nine of 10 road games, straight-up, after pulling an upset on the road in their previous game.  And New England is 16-1 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from an upset loss, if they failed to cover the spread in their previous meeting by more than 10 points.  Finally, it's been dangerous over the years to give New England points -- even if they're not a great team.  The Patriots are 6-0 ATS their last six as home dogs of +7 (or more) points (and 11-2 ATS their last 13); and also 24-8 ATS their last 32 as a dog of 7+, regardless of the venue.  And when the Patriots have owned a win percentage of .400 (or worse), they're 26-6-1 ATS when getting more than 3 points, if they were not off an ATS win in their previous game.  Take New England + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Rams/Seattle Seahawks game.  From an Over/Under perspective, this will be an interesting game, to the extent it features two teams going in opposite directions.  The Seahawks own the league's worst pass defense, and have gone 'over' the total in their last three games, and six of their eight on the season.  In contrast, the Rams have gone 'under' the total in five straight, and also six of their eight games.  Generally speaking, when two teams with contrasting styles like this have met over the past 41 seasons, the 'unders' have cashed more often than not.  And that's the way we will play this game, as the 'under' falls into two Totals systems of mine that are 101-40 and 21-4 since 1980, as well as a 3rd Totals system which is 55-29 since 1983.  Even better:  the Seahawks have gone 'under' in 9 straight (and 17 of 22) after scoring more than 100 points over their three previous games, including 7-0 'under' when the line was greater than 45 points.  And the Rams have gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 12 of 14) in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 4 points, if the O/U line was 50+.  Take the Rams/Seahawks UNDER the total.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Las Vegas Raiders/Denver Broncos game.  The Broncos come into this AFC West division battle off a 34-27 loss at Atlanta last Sunday.  And that was Denver's 3rd straight game that it surrendered 30+ points.  Not surprisingly, all three games sailed over the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, especially since Las Vegas checks in off a high-scoring, 31-26 win at the Chargers last Sunday.  But consider that teams that gave up 30+ points in each of their three previous games have gone 'under' 57% of the time since 1980, including 33-18 UNDER if their opponent scored 30+ in its last game.  Even better:  AFC West division games have gone UNDER 26-14 since 2017, while Denver's gone UNDER in nine straight road games after giving up more than 92 points in their three previous games.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always..Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Buffalo.  Last week, we had a big play on the Bills, and were rewarded with a blowout win over the then-NFC Conference-leading Seahawks.  On Sunday, the 7-2 Bills will attempt to win their third straight game vs. an NFC West foe this season, but they will face a Cardinals team in an ornery mood following its home loss to the Dolphins last week.  We'll lay the points with Arizona, as NFL teams off an upset defeat, in which they failed to cover by more than 8 points, have cashed 51 of 79 vs. .687 (or better) foes off an upset win.  That bodes well for Arizona on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Cardinals are a stellar 34-9 ATS at home off a straight-up home loss, when they're not laying 6+ points.  Take Arizona minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Miami.  The Dolphins are 5-3 after back to back upset wins over the LA Rams and Arizona Cardinals.  But each of those wins were phonier than a 3-dollar bill, as Miami was outgained 471-145 by the Rams, and 442-312 by the Cardinals.  So, don't be surprised if the 2-6 Chargers knock off Miami on Sunday.  Indeed, the Chargers may be 2-6, but they've actually outyarded six of their eight opponents -- including the Broncos and Raiders (both of which they lost to) in their last two games.  This will be just the 2nd time the Dolphins have been favored this season (the first was against the 0-9 Jets), and Miami's a horrid 37-66-3 ATS at home when they weren't getting more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, the Chargers are 37-13-1 ATS on the road in the 2nd half of the season when not favored by 4+ points.  And Los Angeles also falls into 45-87 and 26-66 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams with losing records off SU/ATS losses.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Cleveland Browns.  The Browns are favored by more than a field goal vs. Houston, even though Cleveland has failed to cover its last three games, and has covered just 13 of its last 42 when favored by six points or less (and just three of 22 if the Browns owned a W/L percentage of .375 or better).  It's true that the Texans are 2-6 this season, and failed to cover last Sunday at Jacksonville.  But losing teams, playing their second straight road game, have gone 282-211 ATS off a point spread loss the previous week.  Take the Texans + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers won a huge revenge game their last time out when they defeated San Francisco, 34-17.  Last season, of course, the Packers lost twice to the 49ers, including a defeat in the NFC Championship game.  Off that emotional win, I expect a bit of a letdown on Sunday, as Green Bay will be facing a Jaguars team which has lost seven straight games.  Indeed, winning teams have covered just 47 of 120 as a home favorite, after winning a revenge game on the road, if they were now matched up against a losing team off a straight-up loss (and just five of 19 when favored by more than 13 points).  Additionally, road underdogs of more than 13 points are 178-139 ATS.  Take the Jaguars + the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Wisconsin.  The natives are getting restless in Ann Arbor, as Jim Harbaugh's men have gotten annihilated the past two weekends. Last Saturday, Michigan was thrashed, 38-21, as a 3.5-point favorite, by Indiana.  And before that, the Wolverines were upset, 27-24, as a 21.5-point home favorite by their rival, Michigan State.  Those two debacles will keep a lot of bettors away from the Maize and Blue.  But not us.  Consider that NCAA home teams have cashed 67% since 1990 off back to back losses where they failed to cover by 20+ points, if they were playing a foe off a SU/ATS win! That bodes well for Michigan.  As does the fact that it's 20-11 ATS off a SU loss, if it's playing a Big 10 Conference foe with a winning ATS record.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars pulled off an upset last week at Oregon State, 38-28, as a 3-point road underdog.  They've now been installed as a double-digit home underdog vs. Oregon, and will look to avenge last season's 37-35 loss in Eugene.  Can the Cougars pull off two straight upsets?  It's not likely, as home underdogs of 6+ points have covered just 14 of 53 off an upset victory when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Even better for Oregon:  it's 29-9-1 ATS on the road vs. .680 (or better) opponents, including a perfect 14-0 ATS its last 14 vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take Oregon minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over SMU.  The Mustangs have broken out to a 7-1 start this season, and are ranked among the Top 20.  But this will be their first game dressed up in the underdog role, as SMU was favored in each of their first eight games.  And SMU has been dreadful as a road underdog of +10 or less points (or PK), as it's 12-36 ATS its last 48!  Tulsa had last week off to rest and prepare for this game.  And rested home teams have gone 92-49 ATS off 3+ wins, if they scored 34+ points in each of those three victories.  Lay the points with Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Hawaii.  The Aztecs lost their home game last week to San Jose State, 28-17, and SDSU was favored by double-digits in that game.  That lowered the Aztecs' record to 2-1 on the season.  I love San Diego State to bounce back on Saturday, as winning teams have cashed 62.3% as a favorite since 1998 after losing by double-digits as a double-digit favorite.  Additionally, Hawaii is a woeful 12-22 ATS on the road vs. winning foes.  Lay the points with San Diego State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Arizona.  The Trojans were fortunate to win their season opener, as they scored two touchdowns in the last three minutes to narrowly defeat Arizona State, 28-27.  Off that scare, I look for USC to put this game away early, as it's 31-5 SU and 24-11-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 17 points after failing to cover its previous game by 10+ points.  And it's 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings with the Wildcats.  Take USC minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Notre Dame.  Last week, we had a huge play on the Irish + the points over Clemson, and were rewarded with an overtime, 47-40, upset victory, as a 5.5-point underdog over the previously-unbeaten Tigers.  But off that loss, we'll fade the Irish as a road favorite against 5-3 Boston College.  Indeed, at Game 7 forward, road favorites of -3 (or more) points are a wallet-busting 0-12 ATS vs. .571 (or better) foes after upsetting a previously undefeated team.  Yikes!  Even worse for Notre Dame:  it's 0-9 ATS as a favorite of -9+ points off an upset win, while Boston College is 17-7 ATS vs. foes off an upset win.  And Notre Dame has covered just 4 of 15 vs. Boston College when priced from -7 to -20 points.  Last season, the Irish blew out B.C. by 33 points, 40-7.  But Boston College is 7-0 ATS its last seven when playing with revenge from a 28-point (or worse) defeat.  Take the Eagles + the points. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over South Florida.  Last week, South Florida lost by a single point, as a 17-point road underdog at Memphis, but easily covered the point spread.  that moved South Florida's season record to 4-3 ATS.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, they're a poor 0-7 ATS their last seven when they owned a winning ATS record.  Meanwhile, Houston's a solid 32-18 ATS vs. foes with a winning ATS record, and 9-0 ATS its last nine at home, or on a neutral field vs. foes that covered the spread by 7+ points in their previous game.  Take Houston.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal minus the points over Colorado.  The Buffaloes surprised UCLA last week in their season opener, as they won 48-42, as a 7-point home underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Colorado on Saturday afternoon, as teams off home upset wins to kick off a season have cashed just 34.7% over the past 41 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  With Stanford in off a 21-point SU/ATS loss to Oregon, we'll take the Cardinal on Saturday to blow out Colorado.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over Georgia State.  The Mountaineers return home off back to back blowout road wins over Louisiana Monroe (31-13) and Texas State (38-17).  Unfortunately for their bettors, the Mountaineers failed to cover the large, double-digit point spreads for each game.  Once again, Appy State is favored by double-digits, and we'll lay the points on Saturday afternoon, as double-digit home favorites have covered 61% over the last 41 years after winning, but failing to cover, back to back road games.  Take the Mountaineers.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Middle Tennessee State.  This will be the Blue Raiders' first game since upsetting Rice, 40-34, in overtime three weeks ago.  That was Middle Tennessee's second victory on the season, as it also upset Florida International, 31-28, as a 6.5-point underdog.  But Marshall will be MTSU's most difficult opponent yet this year, and MTSU is a wallet-busting 0-5 SU/ATS as a conference underdog of 13+ points, as it's lost by an average of 30.8 ppg, and failed to cover by an average of 8.5 ppg.  The Herd have broken out to a spotless 6-0 record this season, and are ranked #16 in the country.  On Saturday, they'll be looking to avenge an upset loss to MTSU in Murfreesboro last season.  Marshall was favored in that game by 4.5 points, but lost 24-13.  We'll lay the points with Marshall, as revenge-minded winning teams have cashed 71% at home, as favorites of more than 4 points, if they were also a winning team the previous season, but lost by more than 7 points that season to a team that finished with a losing record.  That bodes well for the Herd today.  As does the fact that undefeated, revenge-minded teams, with a 6-0 or better record, have gone 14-1 ATS as favorites of more than 14 points!  Finally, Marshall also falls into 61-19 and 92-34 ATS systems of mine that go against certain opponents off an upset win.  Take the Herd minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Indiana.  For the first time in over 50 years, the Indiana Hoosiers are ranked among the Top 10 in the Associated Press poll.  Last week, the Hoosiers moved to 3-0 with an upset win over Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines.  This week, the Hoosiers will take to the road, and travel to East Lansing to play a 1-2 Michigan State club, which was blown out, 49-7, last week by Iowa.  We played on the Hawkeyes in that game, but will switch gears, and take the Spartans on Saturday as a home underdog.  For technical support, consider that road favorites have covered just 37% of conference games over the last 24 years off a double-digit home upset win.  Even worse for Indiana:  if our road favorite was also undefeated in conference play, then it's covered just nine of 35 games (25.7%).  Finally, the Hoosiers are a dreadful 9-20 ATS their last 29 vs. the Spartans, and 1-7 ATS their last eight as road favorites.  Take Michigan State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over East Carolina.  The 6-0 Bearcats will welcome the 1-5 Pirates to Cincinnati.  And Luke Fickell's men should be salivating at the prospect of attacking an East Carolina defense which gives up north of 37 ppg.  The Pirates have dropped their last three, including 38-21 home loss to Tulane last Saturday, as a 3.5-point home dog.  Meanwhile, Cincinnati has scored 42, 49 and 38 points in its last three games (all 28+ point blowout wins), and fall into a momentum system of mine which has cashed 82.2% over the past 25 seasons.  What we want to do is play on any NCAA team in conference games at home, or on a neutral field, if they were off three straight wins by more than 25 points, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS loss.  The Bearcats have covered 11 of 16 in this series, and will rout the Pirates on Friday night.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Central Michigan.  The Huskies lost to a revenge-minded Buffalo team last Wednesday, 49-30, as a 14.5-point home underdog, while CMU upset Ohio, as a 2.5-point home dog.  But off that upset win in their season opener, we'll fade the Chippewas tonight.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, Game 2 road favorites of less than 10 points have covered just 33% off an upset home win to kick off their season -- and just 20% of conference games.  Even better, the home team has gone 12-5-1 ATS in this series, including a perfect 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog of +8 or less points.  Finally, the Huskies are a sensational 41-15-3 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, if they did not own a winning ATS record.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Toledo.  Both of these teams had terrific starts to their 2020 Mid-American Conference campaign.  Toledo blew out Bowling Green at home, 38-3, and outgained the Falcons by 257 yards, while Western Michigan annihilated Akron on the road, 58-13, and outyarded the Zips by 228.  The Broncos are back in Kalamazoo for their home home opener, and we'll lay the points with WMU tonight.  Since 1980, unrested underdogs of less than 16 points, playing away from home, have covered just 31% vs. foes with a scoring margin of 44+ points.  And the Rockets are also a poor 3-11 ATS away from home, including 1-8 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams.  And they're 0-8 ATS off a Mid-American Conference home win.  Take Western Michigan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over New England.  The Patriots are on their way to their first losing season since 2000 when they went 5-11.  They're scoring just 19.42 ppg, while they're giving up 23.85, for a -4.43 average margin of victory.  Given these numbers, it's difficult to make a case for New England as a large road favorite -- even against a team as hapless as the New York Jets.  Consider that, at Game 6 forward, losing teams, favored by 8+ points, are a wallet-busting 17-37 ATS if their defense surrenders 23.67 ppg!  Even worse:  favorites of more than 3 points, with a W/L percentage less than .310, have covered just 30.2% since 1980.  And teams with a negative scoring margin that are favored by 7+ points, have gone 154-231-6 ATS vs. foes not off a straight-up win.  Indeed, we saw this particular angle win yesterday when the Houston Texans (with a negative 7.28 margin of victory) failed to cover their 7-point spread vs. Jacksonville.  The bottom line is that when it comes to bad teams, it's generally better to take points than to lay them.  Take the Jets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Tampa Bay.  As faithful followers know, we've been terrific over the year on our futures plays.  Already in 2020, we've cashed the Tampa Bay Lightning at 7-1 odds, and the Los Angeles Dodgers at 4-1 odds.  Our NFL preseason pick was the New Orleans Saints (at 10-1 odds).  New Orleans did get its season off to a fine start with a 34-23 win over these Buccaneers.  But, if truth be told, they've not impressed since, as they've not won a game by 7+ points since then.  Yes, New Orleans has won four straight games coming into this Sunday Night contest, but those wins were by 6 (Lions), 3 (Chargers), 3 (Panthers) and 3 (Bears) points.  They'll now face a revenge-minded division rival, in the Buccaneers.  And that will lead many bettors over to the Tampa Bay side, especially since the Bucs are on a 3-game win streak, including a noteworthy 38-10 victory over the Green Bay Packers -- a team which beat the Saints by seven, 37-30.  But we will step in and take the points with the underdog Saints, as I feel they're due for a breakout game.  Also, Sean Payton has coached the Saints to a 56-24-3 ATS record vs. .500 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including 11-0-1 ATS their last 12 when getting more than 2 points.  I won't fade those numbers.  Take the Saints + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs and New Orleans Saints UNDER the total.  The Saints have played ALL 7 games over the total this season!  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the over in this game tonight.  But consider that, at Game 7 forward, in games with an over/under line of 47+ points, NFL teams that had gone over the total in at least 84% of their season's games, have gone UNDER the total 64.2% of the time.  Indeed, we saw this last week with the Las Vegas Raiders against Cleveland.  Going into that game, Las Vegas had gone OVER the total 5-0-1.  But it played its first under of the season last week when that game ended with just 22 points -- 25.5 points below the posted total.  I look for the Saints to also play their first under of the season tonight.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the over in the Pittsburgh/Dallas game.  The Cowboys have the league's worst defense, as it's giving up more than 33 points per game.  It's true that Dallas only gave up 23 and 25 their last two games (vs. Washington and Philadelphia), but the Steelers should do better, as their offense produces north of 30 points per game.  I also expect Dallas to do better this week than it did last week behind rookie Ben DiNucci.  For this game, Dallas coach Mike McCarthy will start either Garrett Gilbert (6th round pick, 2014) or Cooper Rush (2017), both of whom have more NFL experience than DiNucci.  So, even though the Cowboys have been moribund on offense, with just 22 points scored over their previous three games, that doesn't necessarily portend a low-scoring game today.  One thing which will help is that Dallas is back home this afternoon.  This season, the Cowboys have averaged 31.2 ppg at home, but just 15 ppg on the road.  Not surprisingly, three of the Cowboys' four home games have gone over the total (compared to one of their four road games).  And, going back further, Dallas has played 14 of its last 20 home games over the total (compared to just nine of its last 25 road games).  Additionally, home teams that scored 25 or less combined points in their three previous games, all of which went under the total, have proceeded to go over in their next game 66% of the time since 1989.  And Dallas has gone 78-50 'over' at home when the line was greater than 38 and less than 45 points, including 8-1 OVER their last nine if they were off unders in each of their three previous games.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Pittsburgh.  It's absolutely true that these two teams are going in an opposite direction.  Dallas is 2-6 straight-up, and a horrid 0-8 ATS.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has covered five straight games, and is the NFL's lone undefeated team, at 8-0.  The Steelers have been installed as a double-digit road favorite.  And, as I've often written, one of the last things an NFL bettor should do is take a double-digit road favorite.  Certainly, if an NFL team is installed as a double-digit home underdog, then it's bad.  Really bad.  That being said, these horrible teams have been one of the most reliable bets over the last 41 years.  They're 103-78-2 ATS their last 183, including a perfect 3-0 ATS already this season.  The most recent double-digit home dog was the New York Giants, when it caught 13 points from Tampa Bay on a Monday Night game.  The Giants took Tampa down to the wire, and lost by just two, 25-23.  Previous to that was Philadelphia, which almost upset Baltimore as a 10.5-point home dog.  And the other one was Washington, which covered as a 14.5-point home dog vs. the Ravens.  The Steelers are 29-52 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 0-8 ATS when laying more than 9.  Take Dallas + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the LA Chargers/Las Vegas Raiders game.  The Raiders are 14-1 UNDER their last 15 division road games (and 62-35 UNDER their last 97).  Meanwhile, the Chargers are 79-32 UNDER their last 111 division home games, including 6-0 under their last six.  Take the UNDER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Seattle.  This is a great match-up between the 6-2 Bills and 6-1 Seahawks.  The Achilles' heel for Seattle this season is its defense.  It's giving up 28.4 ppg (against foes that score 25.1), and 6.3 yards per play.  So, it's hard for me to take Seattle in this situation, and lay points on the road to a very good team.  Indeed, really good NFL teams, with W/L percentages greater than .750, are a poor 11-30 ATS on the road if they don't own the better defense, and are laying 3 or more points.  That doesn't bode well for Seattle.  Nor does the fact that Buffalo is an awesome 51-22 ATS at home off a point spread defeat vs. foes off a straight-up win.  With Buffalo, indeed, off an ATS loss last week vs. New England, we'll take the points with the Bills on Sunday afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Minnesota.  The Lions announced that QB Matthew Stafford will be eligible to play today, after successfully completing the COVID protocols after being exposed to the virus.  That's enough for me to pull the trigger on the underdog Lions, as I want to go against Minnesota off its upset road win at Green Bay last Sunday.  Indeed, underdogs off a double-digit loss have covered 75% over the last 41 years vs. division rivals, if its foe owned a losing record, and was off an upset division win in its previous game.  Even better:  Detroit is a wallet-fattening 39-14-4 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 10 points, including a perfect 10-0 if it was getting more than 3 points vs. .350 (or worse) opponents.  Take the Lions + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Chicago.  After storming out of the gates with a 5-0 record, the Titans have dropped their last two games.  But one was against the undefeated Steelers, so it's hard to find too much fault.  Today, they'll welcome the 5-3 Bears to Nashville.  We'll lay the points, as NFL teams with a .700 (or better) W/L percentage, off back to back losses, have covered 61.6% over the last 41 years.  Take Tennessee.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Denver.  The Falcons were 0-5 when they fired Dan Quinn, and replaced him with Raheem Morris.  Since then, Atlanta has gone 2-1, but easily could be 3-0 if it had only not allowed the Lions to score a touchdown as time expired, in a 23-22 defeat.  In their last game, the Falcons went into Carolina, and upset the Panthers, 25-17.  We played on Atlanta in that game, and will take them again today, as they'll welcome a Broncos team which pulled off a division upset last Sunday.  Since 1980, road underdogs have covered just 63 of 155 non-division games off an upset division win at home.  Take Atlanta.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Arkansas.  Tennessee comes into this game riding a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, following its 48-17 loss to Alabama.  Yet the Volunteers have been installed as a small road favorite vs. the Razorbacks, who have covered all five games this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Razorbacks, and against the cold Volunteers.  But consider that, over the past 41 years, road favorites have covered 70.5% of conference games if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was off 3+ ATS wins.  Additionally, Tennessee is a terrific 14-0 ATS as a road favorite of 13 or less points off an ATS loss.  Take the Volunteers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson.  The Irish have given up 13 points or less in five of their six football games this season.  And they're allowing a meager 10.3 ppg (against foes that average 23.9).  Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. a Clemson team which has failed to cover the spread in five of its seven games this season.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on strong defensive teams as home underdogs.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 6 forward, home dogs (or PK) that allow 13.7 (or less) points have cashed 61.1% of their conference games.  Even better:  the Irish are 19-7 ATS at home when priced from -2 to +7 points, while Clemson is a wallet-busting 4-16 ATS on the road when priced as a favorite of less than 7 points (or PK).  Take Notre Dame + the points to upset Clemson.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Florida State.  The Panthers started 3-0, but have lost their last four games -- both SU and ATS -- largely because of the injury to QB Kenny Pickett in the 3rd quarter of the Boston College game.  Of course, the fact that Pitt played Miami and Notre Dame their previous two games was a big factor, as well.  This afternoon's game vs. Florida State will be a welcome step-down in class for Pat Narduzzi's men.  And I love Pitt to bounce back this afternoon, as NCAA teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have covered 59% over the last 41 years as a road underdog of less than 6 points.  On the other sideline, Florida State is giving up a ghastly 35 points per game, and has covered just two of its six games this season.  Even worse for the Seminoles:  they're 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite, including an outright upset loss to Georgia Tech when they were favored by 13 points.  And they've covered just 13 of their last 37 ACC games as a favorite.  Indeed, it's hard to make a case for an NCAA team as a favorite when they give up 35 ppg.  And, at Game 7 forward, conference favorites have covered just 40% of the time since 1980, if they give up at least 35 ppg, and play an opponent with a better record (both inside the conference, and overall), and a better defense (which rates at least 11 points better).  Take Pitt + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Vanderbilt.  After opening its season with an impressive 44-34 upset win at LSU, the Bulldogs have lost their last four games -- both SU and ATS.  Last week's game was particularly uninspired, as they managed just 200 yards of offense, in a shutout loss at Alabama.  But Mississippi State is back home in Starkville this afternoon.  And their opponent is the 0-4 Commodores rather than the Crimson Tide.  One of the things I love to do is play on double-digit NCAA home favorites in conference games, off back-to-back conference defeats, if they lost their previous game by 20+ points.  These teams have bounced back to cover the spread 62% of the time.  And for all of Miss State's recent problems, the Commodores have actually been worse.  Vandy is 0-4 SU this season, and has lost its last three games ATS by an average of 16.3 ppg.  And it's also 0-9 ATS its last nine when getting less than 21 points!  Take Mississippi State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Illinois.  The Gophers come into this game off back to back losses to start their 2020 season.  Certainly, PJ Fleck did not envision that his team would be 0-2 at that point, after going 11-2 last year, and being ranked #21 to start the season.  A 49-24 season-opening loss to Michigan wasn't wholly unexpected.  But last week's 45-44 overtime defeat at Maryland was a head-scratcher, as Minnesota was favored by 17.5 points.  But 0-2 road favorites, that had a winning record the previous season, have cashed 68.9% over the last 41 years.  Even better:  teams playing away from home have gone 20-4 ATS if they were upset as an 11-point (or bigger) favorite their previous game, and were off back to back losses overall.  Take the Gophers to bounce back at Champaign this afternoon.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  The Spartans pulled off a gigantic upset last Saturday when they went into Ann Arbor and upset their rival, Michigan, 27-24, as a 21.5-point road underdog.  Can MSU make it two-in-a-row?  It's not likely, as NCAA teams playing back-to-back games on the road have covered just 26.6% of the time if they won their previous game as an underdog of greater than 20 points.  That bodes well for the Hawkeyes on Saturday.  As does the fact that Iowa's a solid 39-28 ATS off back to back losses.  And it's an awesome 24-6-1 ATS off a loss when priced as a favorite of 7 points or less, including a perfect 11-0-1 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up win.  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 6-0, and ranked among the Top 25, yet have been installed as a heavy underdog vs. the 4-2 Hokies.  At first blush, the point spread may seem like an overlay, given that Liberty's last three wins have been by 33, 17 and 21 points -- including a victory over ACC member Syracuse.  But Virginia Tech has won its two home games against two winning teams -- NC State and Boston College -- by 21 and 26 points.  And it's also 18-7-1 ATS at home vs. .800 (or better) opponents, at Game 6 forward (including 7-0 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins).  Meanwhile, underdogs (like Liberty) off 3 SU wins as a favorite are 17-43 ATS away from home.  But the clincher is that, at Game 7 forward, .857 (or better) road underdogs have cashed just 46 of 122 off a SU/ATS win by 13+ points.  Take Virginia Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos + the points over BYU.  The Cougars come into this game with a gaudy 7-0 record, and have been installed as a road favorite at Boise State, which RARELY loses here at home on the blue turf.  How rare?  Boise's lost just nine of 137 home games over the past 22 seasons, and is 38-3 straight-up at home when priced as an underdog, or a favorite of 10 points or less.  And it's cashed 22 of its last 28 at home when not favored by more than 10 points!  That bodes very well for the underdog Broncos on Friday night.  More good news:  BYU's cashed just eight of 20 games as a road favorite, while Boise's cashed 75% as a revenge-minded underdog.  Meanwhile, unbeaten teams (like BYU) with a 5-0 (or better) record) have cashed just 30.4% over the last 41 years as a road favorite of 7 (or less) points vs. non-conference foes.  Take Boise State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Miami (Fla.).  Both of these ACC Conference teams come into this Friday night game off a bye week.  Miami has won two straight following its 42-17 loss at #1-ranked Clemson, and is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Meanwhile, NC State is 4-2 SU/ATS following its 48-21 loss at rival, North Carolina, two weeks ago.  The good news for the Wolfpack is that it's 2-0 SU/ATS this season at home.  And it's also 31-14-2 ATS as a home underdog of more than 5 points.  Even better:  NC State is 29-14 ATS off a loss, if it's playing with revenge from a loss to its opponent in the previous meeting.  And the Wolfpack fall into an 84-23 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Finally, Miami is a dreadful 17-34 ATS off a home conference win, including 0-8 ATS its last eight, and 0-12 ATS when priced from -4 to -20 points vs. .250 (or better) foes.  Take North Carolina State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, we had a big play on the Cowboys as a home underdog vs. Hawaii, and were rewarded with a 31-7 upset win.  In that game, we played against the road favorite Rainbow Warriors, who were off a double-digit upset conference win.  Now, here, we'll play against the road favorite Cowboys, who are also off a double-digit upset conference win.  And NCAA road favorites of less than 13 points (or PK) have covered just 48 of 141 conference games off a double-digit upset conference win.  Even better:  Wyoming has been dreadful on the road when favored by 3+ points, as it's covered just 12 of 37.  Take the Rams as a home underdog + the points tonight.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Kent State.  Last year, the Golden Flashes went into Ypsilanti and stunned Eastern Michigan, 34-26, as a 4-point road underdog.  The Eagles will get their chance to avenge that defeat in this season opener.  And, if history is any guide, they will.  Indeed, teams playing with revenge from an upset home loss the previous season have cashed 68% of their season openers, when not favored by 3+ points.  Even better:  the Golden Flashes are a horrible 2-10 ATS their last 12 (and 16-32 ATS their last 48) when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Sunday night game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.  It's true that the Cowboys' offense has sputtered without QB Dak Prescott.  Dallas' last two games have gone 'under' the total, as they've produced 48 and 28 points.  And Dallas' offensive problems is the reason for this relatively-low over/under number.  But, by my math, the oddsmakers' adjustment of the over/under number has been an overreaction.  The Cowboys' defense is still giving up TONS of points, as it's given up 25 or more points in each of its last six games (37.16 avg).  For the season, Dallas has allowed 34.7 ppg (against foes that score 25.6 ppg).  Meanwhile, Philly's defense has also been horrible, as it's surrendered 28 ppg (against foes that average 24.4 ppg).  Notably, each of Philadelphia's seven games this season have totaled 43+ points (51.2 avg), and five of the Eagles' seven games have soared 'over' the total.  Dallas has gone 'over' the total in 11 of 15 after playing an 'under,' while the Eagles have gone 'over' in 24 of 38 off an 'under.'  Take the Cowboys + Eagles to go OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over San Francisco.  The Niners come into Sunday's game off back to back upset wins over the Rams (24-16) and Patriots (33-6).  Can they pull off their 3rd straight upset?  It will be most difficult, as they catch division rival Seattle off an overtime upset defeat to Arizona, 37-34.  That was Seattle's first loss of the season (after five wins), and I love it to bounce back this afternoon.  Since 1980, winning home favorites are an awesome 57-33 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins.  Even better:  the Seahawks play this game with revenge from a loss here at home to the Niners in the season's final regular season game.  That handed last year's division title to San Francisco.  But revenge-minded NFL favorites, off an upset loss, are 107-67 ATS.  Take Seattle minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over New Orleans.  We played against the Bears last Monday, and were rewarded with a 24-10 SU/ATS win by the Los Angeles Rams.  But we'll switch gears this afternoon, and play on Chicago as a home underdog.  These two teams actually met here, at Soldier Field, last season, and the Bears were defeated 36-25.  But revenge-minded home underdogs, with a winning record, have cashed 65.6% over the past 41 seasons vs. non-division foes.  Indeed, we saw this situation just a couple of weeks ago when the Titans avenged their home loss to the Buffalo Bills last season with a 42-16 blowout as a 3-point home underdog this season.  The Chicago Bears are 12-4-1 ATS their last 17 as a home underdog, and 20-11 ATS as a home dog with revenge.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Steelers are the last remaining undefeated NFL team (at 6-0), and will attempt to tie the 1978 team (which went 7-0 to start its season) with the best start in franchise history.  The oddsmakers aren't giving the Steelers the respect of an undefeated team, as they've installed them as a sizeable underdog at their rival, Baltimore, this afternoon.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with Pittsburgh.  But consider that underdogs of more than 3 points have covered just 23 of 65 games, if they were on a 4-game (or better) win streak, including 2-15 ATS vs. division rivals.  That doesn't bode well for the Black-and-Gold on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that the Ravens are a powerful 16-4 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams if the Ravens are priced between -3.5 and -6 points at home.  Last week, Baltimore had its bye week, following its 30-28 victory over Philadelphia.  The Steelers, meanwhile, upset Tennessee on the road for its 4th straight cover.  Unfortunately, in the regular season, unrested road underdogs off 3 SU/ATS wins are a soft 58-96 ATS vs. winning foes, including 14-28 ATS vs. division rivals.  And rested home teams with an .800 (or better) win percentage, are an awesome 12-0 ATS vs. unrested foes in the regular season, when not favored by 6+ points.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Minnesota/Green Bay game.  This rivalry has typically produced low-scoring games, with nine of the last 12 meetings sailing 'UNDER' the total.  I look for another relatively-low scoring game this afternoon, with Minnesota looking to bounce back off its 40-23 upset loss to Atlanta, as a 3.5-point favorite.  And NFL teams that get upset, and give up 35+ points in that upset loss, tend to bounce back and cover the spread, while also going 'under' the total -- and especially when the line is greater than 39 points (204-152 under (57.3%)).  And Mike Zimmer's Vikings have gone 'under' 28-13 after going 'over' in their previous game.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Kansas City.  Last week, we played on the Jets as a double-digit home underdog vs. Buffalo, and got the cash in an 18-10 defeat.  That loss moved the Jets' straight-up record to 0-7.  Today, they'll take on the 6-1 (and defending Super Bowl champion) Kansas City Chiefs.  Understandably, the Chiefs are massive favorites in this game.  But don't be surprised if the Jets hang tough this afternoon.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs have not done well over the years as large home favorites.  Since 1980, they've covered just 12 of 33 when laying more than two touchdowns.  Moreover, winless teams -- like New York -- are an impressive 36-13 ATS at Game 8 forward when getting more than 8 points.  And underdogs of 19+ points -- though they've gone 0-19 straight-up -- have gone 13-6 ATS.  Take New York + the big number.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets to go OVER the total.  The Chiefs are favored by 20 points, which is the largest point spread yet this season.  And, over the past 20 years, NFL games with large point spreads tend to go over the total.  Indeed, home teams favored by more than 15 points have gone OVER 62.7% of the time.  I look for another high-scoring game here, as the Chiefs have also gone 'over' the total 57% of the time in the Patrick Mahomes era, including 6-0-1 OVER after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Of course, it's true that the Jets come into this game off 3 straight unders.  But consider that, since 1980, NFL teams off 3 straight unders have proceeded to go OVER the total 60.4% of the time when the line was greater than 48 points!  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over the Bengals.  After starting the season 5-0, the Titans finally lost last Sunday -- 27-24 -- at home to the similarly undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.  Off that loss, I look for the Titans to rebound this afternoon at Cincinnati.  Indeed, NFL teams that start the season with 5 (or more) wins have gone 8-0-1 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -13 points, if they suffered their first loss of the season at home in their previous game.  Additionally, the Titans should also be bolstered by facing a Bengals team which is 1-5-1 this year, and giving up 27.71 ppg.  Since 1980, road teams have gone 251-174 ATS vs. opponents off an ATS win that give up 26.22 ppg.  Take the Titans minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels + the points over Nevada.  Last week, in their season opener, the Rebels mustered just six points at San Diego State.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against UNLV tonight, especially given that Nevada scored 37 in its upset win vs. Wyoming last Saturday.  However, over the last 41 seasons, underdogs that didn't score 7+ points to open their season bounced back to cover the spread 69.2% in their second game, if it was against a conference foe.  That bodes very well for UNLV as a double-digit underdog on Saturday night.  As do the facts that Nevada's an awful 0-6 ATS as a double-digit road favorite vs. losing teams, and 11-23 ATS on the road vs. .300 (or worse) teams.  Grab the points with UNLV.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  This game features the two teams who were projected to be the Big 10's two best teams at season's end.  Unfortunately for Penn State, the Indiana Hoosiers took the luster off this game when they upset the Nitts, 36-35, as a 7-point home underdog, last Saturday.  But if there was a silver lining in its upset loss, it's that Penn State significantly outyarded the Hoosiers, 488-211.  But Indiana won the turnover battle and, ultimately, the game.  In contrast, the Buckeyes blew out Nebraska, 52-17, even though their game vs. the Nebraska Cornhuskers was closely played in the stats.  Nebraska was only outgained by 121 yards (491-370), yet one wouldn't know that by the final score.  Not surprisingly, the 'Huskers lost the turnover battle to the Buckeyes.  The Nittany Lions were 11-2 (.846) last season, with one of their two losses to these Buckeyes, 28-17, in Columbus.  Rest assured, Penn State will badly want to avenge that defeat on Saturday night.  And revenge-minded teams have cashed 63% (46-27-4 ATS) at home or on neutral fields over the past 41 years if they were not favored by more than 3 points, and owned a W/L percentage of .846 (or better) the previous season.  Even better:  if our revenger came into the game with a losing record, and its opponent was off a win, then our 46-27 stat zooms to a perfect 9-0-1 ATS.  Take Penn State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on Air Force + the points over Boise State.  The Falcons are 1-1 on the season, after losing 17-6 on the road last week.  But Air Force is back home for this game, and has been installed as a double-digit home underdog.  The Falcons were also a home underdog to start the season, and we played on them in that game vs. Navy.  Air Force rewarded us with a 40-7 blowout win, and that moved the Falcons' record as a home underdog to 8-0-1 ATS their last nine!  I look for another ATS win by Air Force as a home underdog, as it falls into a 72-30 ATS system of mine that plays on certain home underdogs off upset losses.  Take the double digits with the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The #1-ranked Tigers have scored 42, 73 and 47 points in their last three games.  And they'll now face a 4-2 Boston College squad which has surrendered 30, 40 and 27 points in its last three games, and gives up 25 ppg on the season.  Needless to say, Clemson is going to light up the scoreboard on Saturday.  Indeed, winning teams (like Boston College) have gone 51-94 ATS if they give up at least 20.5 ppg, and are installed as an underdog of 22+ points.  That bodes well for Clemson on Saturday.  As does the fact that NCAA home teams that average 45 ppg on offense have cashed 69.6% over the past 35 seasons vs. foes that are off a SU/ATS win that surrender at least 25 ppg, if our home team wasn't favored by more than 33 points.   Boston College has lost its last six games ATS following an ACC Conference win, while Clemson is 9-1 ATS its last 10 games vs. ACC rivals that won SU/ATS their previous games.  Take Clemson minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Purdue.  The Illini were roasted in their season opener last week at Wisconsin.  The Badgers were favored by 20.5 points, and blew out Illinois by 38, 45-7.  The good news for Illinois is that it's back home in Champaign this Saturday afternoon.  And it will also be playing a team which is much closer to its talent level.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on teams in their home opener off a game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 11 points, if they're playing a conference foe, and the game is competitively-priced with a line of less than 11 points.  Over the last 35 seasons, our home team has covered 65.6% of the time.  We saw this situation a few weeks ago when Troy State was blown out 48-7 by BYU, as a 14-point road underdog.  But then it returned home for its home opener, and blew out its Sun Belt Conference rival, Texas State, 37-7, as a 7-point favorite.  Last week, Purdue upset Iowa, 24-20, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, Illinois is 9-1 ATS vs. conference foes off upset wins, if Illinois failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points in its previous game.  Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have only covered 16% over the last 41 seasons as a road favorite off an upset win.  Take Illinois + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over Coastal Carolina.  After a 2-game road trip, the Panthers are back home in Atlanta to take on the 5-0 (and 20th-ranked) Chanticleers.  The last time the Panthers were on this field, they blew out East Carolina, 49-29, as a 1.5-point home underdog.  And that game continued a trend which has seen the Panthers go 8-3 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 6 points or less.  Meanwhile, the Chanticleers are a wallet-busting 2-5 ATS as a conference favorite.  And they fall into 18-55 and 7-27 ATS systems of mine that go against certain undefeated teams off ATS wins.  Take Georgia State + the points.