At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Wake Forest.  Last week, we had a play on Wake Forest as a double-digit home underdog vs. Virginia Tech, and were rewarded with an upset victory.  But now, the tables are turned and Wake Forest is laying double-digits on the road.  Not surprisingly, teams that change point spread roles like this often don't find success.  Indeed, Wake Forest's only ATS loss this season came when it was a road favorite.  It's also covered just 8 of its last 26 as a road favorite, including 0 of its last 6 attempts.  And over the last 38 years, double-digit NCAA road favorites have cashed just 36.1% after winning outright as a double-digit underdog.  Take the Orange + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Kansas State.  The Wildcats have ripped off four straight wins and covers, including a 41-point blowout win over rival Kansas last Saturday.  But they'll be matched up against a West Virginia team looking to bounce back off its upset loss at Texas Tech a week ago.  The Mountaineers were favored by 2.5 in that game at Lubbock, but lost, 34-27.  The good news for WVU is that it's back home in Morgantown, where it's 6-2-1 ATS its last nine off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  Big 12 teams are a horrid 47-75 ATS as underdogs of more than 3 points off back to back point spread victories.  And West Virginia also falls into a 63-23 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset road losses.  Lay the points with the Mountaineers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys over Hawaii.  The Cowboys were favored last week in their season opener, but lost outright, 37-34, as a 2.5-point road favorite at Nevada.  Meanwhile, Hawaii went into Fresno State, and upset the Bulldogs, 34-19, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Off those two results, we'll step in and take the Cowboys in their home opener on Friday.  Dating back 41 seasons, College Football teams have cashed 77% in their home opener off a season-opening upset loss, if they were playing an opponent off a win, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for Wyoming tonight.  Even better:  over the past 25 seasons, NCAA Football teams have cashed 63% off an upset loss to start the season, if their opponent was off an upset win to start its season. Take Wyoming.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Thursday Night Football game between Carolina and Atlanta.  This match-up pits two losing teams from the NFC South division.  Atlanta checks in with a 1-6 record, while Carolina is two games better, at 3-4.  The Falcons' problem has been on the defensive side of the football, as they've given up at least 23 points in each of their seven games this season.  Overall, their defense gives up 29.57 ppg, and two of their three road games have sailed 'over' the total, including their last road game -- a 40-23 win at Minnesota, in Raheem Morris' first game as Atlanta head coach.  We'll look for another high-scoring game tonight, as losing teams, that give up at least 29.5 ppg, have gone 'over' the total in 33 of 44 road games vs. other losing teams, if the line was at least 47 points (including 20-2 'OVER' if the O/U line was greater than 49 points).  Additionally, the 'Over' falls into 69-41 and 94-65 Totals systems of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Carolina.  This is the second meeting between these two NFC South division rivals.  In the first meeting, Carolina upset Atlanta, 23-16, as a 2.5-point underdog.  We'll take the Falcons in the rematch, as revenge-minded teams that were upset at home in the previous meeting earlier in the season, have gone 76-42 ATS if they also lost their previous game, straight-up.  Even better:  Atlanta is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog vs. foes off back-to-back losses, including 7-0 ATS its last seven division games.  Take the Falcons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Chicago.  The Bears travel to the west coast off an upset win last Sunday at Carolina, and a 2nd upset win over Tampa Bay in their game before that.  Can the Bears pull an upset three weeks in a row?  It's not likely, as NFL teams playing their 2nd straight road game, are a poor 34.6% ATS off back to back upset wins, if they're playing a non-division foe, including 3-24 SU and 7-19-1 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +7 points.  That doesn't bode well for Chicago tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Bears are a horrid 0-12 ATS their last 12 (and 7-27 ATS their last 34) on the road vs. winning teams who were not off a SU/ATS win in their previous game.  With the Rams in off an upset loss last Sunday to the 49ers, we'll lay the points with Sean McVay's men tonight.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over San Francisco.  The Pats are 2-3 on the season.  Two of the three losses were somewhat expected.  New England was a 4-point underdog at Seattle, and an 11.5-point underdog at Kansas City.  But last week's upset loss, here in Foxborough, as a 7-point favorite vs. Denver was surprising.  After all, the Patriots had won 88 of their previous 100 home games as a favorite of 7+ points.  The good news for New England this afternoon is that it's cashed 90% over the past 17 years off an upset home loss where it was favored by 7+ points.  Even better:  the Pats come into this game off back to back ATS defeats.  But they're 24-6 ATS off two ATS losses when not favored by more than 12 points!  We played on the 49ers last week as a home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams, and were rewarded with an upset win by San Francisco, 24-16.  Unfortunately for the Niners, they're an awful 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS off an upset home win when matched up against an opponent off a loss.  And if all this wasn't enough ammunition to play on Bill Belichick's men, New England also falls into 123-64, 120-55 and 44-22 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset defeats.  Take the Patriots minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the points over Los Angeles.  The Jaguars come into this game off 5 straight losses (and 4 straight ATS losses), so the knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the Chargers (notwithstanding the fact that L.A. has won just 1 game itself).  However, consider that NFL underdogs (or PK) have cashed 63.1% since 1980 in non-division games when they've lost their last five games, and were also on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, including a perfect 13-0-1 ATS over the last 3 years.  That bodes well for the underdog Jaguars on Sunday.  As does the fact that .300 (or worse) teams have covered just 11 of 38 (including 0 for their last 7) when laying more than 7 points, at Game 4 forward.  Take Jacksonville + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets to go OVER the total.  Buffalo's offense has taken a leap forward this season with 3rd year QB Josh Allen.  Buffalo has scored 27, 31, 35, 30, 16 and 17 points in its six games, and only one of the six has gone 'under' the total.  The only game which went 'under' was -- not coincidentally -- the only game which Buffalo wasn't favored to win.  But when the Bills are favored, they've actually gone 'over' 26 of their last 37 games.  In contrast, when the Bills are an underdog, they've gone 'under' 18-4.  In this game, the Bills are substantially favored, as they're laying double-digits to the Jets.  And Buffalo's 14-0 'over' when laying 4 or more points on the road!  These two teams met earlier this season, and that game went 'over' the total by 5 points.  And the 'over' also falls into a 164-111 Totals system of mine.  We'll look for another 'over' this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Carolina/New Orleans game.  The Saints have played all 5 of their games OVER THE TOTAL this season.  But something will have to give today, as they'll be playing the Panthers, who have played UNDERS in each of their four previous games.  I actually look for a relatively-low scoring game here, as NFL teams have gone UNDER 60% of the time over the past 41 years when the line was greater than 49 points, if they played their previous four games over the total, and were playing an opponent which had played a majority of its games UNDER the total on the season.  Even better:  Sean Payton's Saints have gone UNDER 63% of the time over the past 13 seasons off 3+ overs.  And the UNDER also falls into one of my favorite Totals systems which is 98-59-2 since 1980.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Washington Redskins.  Last week, the Cowboys played one of the worst games by any team in the league this season.  They were favored against Arizona on Monday Night Football, but were blown out, 38-10.  The result is that the opening number for this game (Dallas -3) is history, and the number is closer to PK'em.  I believe this was an over-reaction, and the value squarely lies on the Cowboys.  The Cowboys fall into 88-56, 153-69, 221-133 and 71-40 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 88-56 ATS angle.  That plays on road teams in division games off exactly 1 upset loss, if they were defeated by double-digits in that upset.  Even better:  Washington is a horrible 32-54-1 ATS at home vs. division rivals, if Washington wasn't getting more than 3 points, including 14-32 ATS vs. foes off a loss.  Take Dallas.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cleveland/Cincinnati game.  The Cleveland Browns have played three road games this season, and have scored 6, 7 and 49 in those three games.  Of course, that 49-point game was vs. the Cowboys, who are giving up 36.3 ppg, so that Browns effort must be taken with a grain of salt.  Still, even with that 49-point outburst, the Browns are only averaging 20.66 ppg on the road (compared to 33.66 at home).  Likewise, the Bengals have played much better defense at home this season, as they've given up just 20.5 ppg at home (compared to 29 ppg on the road).  We'll look for a low-scoring game here in Cincinnati on Sunday, as the 'under' falls into 60-25 and 125-74 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Washington game.  The Cowboys' defense has given up 39, 38, 49, 34 and 38 points in their last five games.  But those five opponents all had better quarterbacks than does this Washington club.  Indeed, Washington has scored just 17, 10 and 19 points over its last three games.  And, outside of its first game vs. Philadelphia, where it benefited from three turnovers, it hasn't scored more than 20 points all season.  I fully expect Dallas' defense to play a terrific game on Sunday, especially since it will be "stepping down in class" by playing Washington.  And, for technical support, consider that teams whose games average 64+ points have gone under the total 57% when the O/U line 45 or less points.  Take the UNDER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers will be the 2nd undefeated team that the Titans have welcomed to Nashville over the past 12 days.  Back on October 13, the Titans trounced the then-undefeated Bills, 42-16.  Last week, the Titans also scored 42 points, so we won't step in front of this freight train here, at home.  Indeed, over the last 18 years, teams off back to back 40-point outings have cashed 84% when not favored by 5+ points, if their opponent was off a SU win.  And Tennessee is 20-9 ATS off back to back 30-point games.  Take the Titans.  Finally, the Steelers are an awful 21-44 ATS when they owned a winning record, and were playing a non-division foe on the road, but not getting more than 2 points.  Take Tennessee.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers looked like gangbusters through their first four games.  But they laid an egg last week at Tampa Bay, and lost 38-10.  Now, they'll try to rebound at Houston, which owns just one win on the season.  Last week, the Texans lost a brutal game in overtime at Tennessee, 42-36.  We'll fade Green Bay as, road teams have covered just 33% over the last 41 seasons after being upset on the road by 27+ points.  Take Houston.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Buffalo.  It goes without saying that double-digit home underdogs are bad teams.  Actually, really, really bad teams.  But it's also true that double-digit underdogs have been one of the more reliable point spread plays in modern NFL history.  Dating back to 1980, they've gone 109-89-2 (55% ATS).  Last week, we saw the Eagles (+10.5) almost upset the Baltimore Ravens.  And earlier this month, the Redskins covered as a 14.5-point home underdog -- also against Baltimore.  This will be the 3rd double-digit home dog of 2020, and we'll take the points with the pitiful Jets, who are 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS on the season.  But winless ATS teams, at Game 7 forward, have covered 64% since 1980 when installed as an underdog.  Take New York + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Notre Dame.  Last week, the Panthers dropped their 3rd straight contest (and 2nd straight on the road), 31-19, at Miami.  But they'll be back home at Heinz Field to welcome the Fighting Irish to the Steel City.  This will be Notre Dame's first road game after starting the season with four straight home games.  And that doesn't bode well for Brian Kelly's men, as road favorites off 3+ home games, have covered just 27.9% over the past 26 years, if they were off a win, and playing a conference foe off a loss, if that foe was off back to back road games.  It's true that the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS their last five games.  But this ATS losing streak has created point spread value.  And Pitt falls into a 112-70 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on a 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Additionally, the Panthers fall into an 84-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  And they're 14-1-1 ATS off back to back losses when matched up against winning teams.  Take Pitt.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Alabama.  Last week, the Crimson Tide won the most-anticipated game of the season, with a 41-24 victory over Georgia.  But after winning that "Battle of Unbeatens," we will look for a letdown, and fade the Tide today.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, at Game 5 forward, after a team won a competitively-priced match-up (with a point spread less than 10) of undefeated teams, such teams have cashed just 35.1% as road favorites vs. .500 (or better foes).  Even worse, if its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our 35.1% stat moves to 15.7% ATS.  With Tennessee off a blowout loss last week, we'll grab the points with the home underdog.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Navy.  The Middies won and covered for the 2nd straight game last weekend when they went into East Carolina to defeat the Pirates, 27-23, as a 3-point road favorite.  The Cougars dropped their game last week, as they fell at home, 43-26, as a 3-point home underdog to BYU (which defeated Navy, 55-3, earlier this season).  Houston plays this game with revenge from a 15-point defeat at home last season to the Midshipmen.  The good news for Dana Holgorsen's men is that they're 20-11-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 16 points (or PK).  And they're 50-28-1 ATS, overall, when playing with revenge.  Navy also falls into negative 77-126 and 64-113 ATS systems of mine that play against certain teams off conference wins.  Finally, the Midshipmen are an awful 3-27 SU and 8-21-1 ATS as home underdogs of more than 7 points, and 11-27 ATS at home off back to back wins.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Virginia Tech.  We played on the Hokies last weekend, and were rewarded with a 40-14 blowout win over Boston College.  The Hokies are now 2-0 ATS at home, but 0-2 ATS away from Blacksburg.  That doesn't bode well for them on Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem.  After all, the Demon Deacons are 3-0 ATS at home this season (and 0-1 ATS on the road).  Wake Forest has also been piling up the points, as it's scored 42, 66, and 40 in its last three games.  Faithful followers know I love to play on home underdogs that can score, and especially if they're good teams.  And Wake certainly fits the bill.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, home underdogs off back-to-back wins, that average at least 40 points on offense, have covered 65% when getting more than 6 points.  Grab the points with the Demon Deacons.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Iowa State.  The Cowboys went into Lawrence three weeks ago and demolished Kansas, 47-7 to move to 3-0 on the season.  Last week, their scheduled game was scrapped due to Baylor's rash of positive COVID-19 tests, so they've had a lot of time to rest and prepare for this game.  Okie State's defense has been solid, as it's yet to surrender 14 points in a game.  And the Cowboys also fall into 109-45, 275-189 and 133-96 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 133-96 ATS angle.  What we want to do is play on any rested home team in conference games off a double-digit conference road win.  That bodes well for the Cowboys in Stillwater, on Saturday.  As does the fact that they're 22-6 ATS after scoring 47+ points, if they weren't favored by more than 3 points in their current game.  Take the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners finally covered the point spread in a Big 12 Conference game.  But it took an overtime session to put them over the top, 53-45, as a 3-point favorite vs. Texas.  The Sooners have covered just five of their last 18 conference games, including one of seven on an opponent's home field.  That doesn't bode well for Lincoln Riley's troops on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that TCU has covered 14 of 22 as an underdog here in Fort Worth, including a perfect 5-0 if the Horned Frogs owned a losing record.  The Horned Frogs had last week off following their upset home loss to Kansas State, as an 11-point favorite.  And they're 17-4 ATS at home when playing with rest, including 7-0 ATS off a loss.  Finally, over the past 41 seasons, rested home underdogs have cashed 71% off a straight-up loss as a favorite of 9 (or more) points.  Take TCU + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cowboys are 2-3 this season, but have yet to cover the point spread in any of their five games.  And, to make matters worse, they'll be without QB Dak Prescott for the rest of the season after he sustained a severe ankle injury in last week's 37-34 win over the NY Giants.  But if there's good news for Mike McCarthy's team, it's that they have a veteran backup QB in Andy Dalton.  And they play in the worst division in football, so they still should make the Playoffs -- even if they end up with a losing record.  Tonight, they'll welcome the 3-2 Arizona Cardinals to AT&T Stadium.  But Arizona's 3-2 record has largely come against the dregs of the league, as two of its three wins were against the 1-4 Washington Football Team and the 0-5 NY Jets.  We'll take Dallas as NFL teams on 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have gone 98-49 ATS against non-division foes, provided our team wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  Even better:  this will be Arizona's 3rd straight road game, while Dallas hasn't had to travel in over 3 weeks, as this will be the Cowboys' 3rd straight home game.  Since 1980, NFL teams playing their 3rd straight on the road have covered just 9 of 30 games vs. foes playing their 3rd straight at home!  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals to go Under the total.  The Cowboys' defense has been a sieve thus far, as it's given up 36 points per game.  They've now played their last four games 'over' the total, which has led to an overwhelming majority of the tickets being written on the 'over,' and this number jumping a couple of points from the opener.  Certainly, as can be seen by the betting data, the knee-jerk reaction is to play a Cowboys game to go 'over' the total.  But consider that NFL teams that give up more than 28 ppg on defense, and have played their previous 4 games 'over' the total, have actually gone UNDER the total 72.5% of the time (29-11).  And teams playing on Monday Night Football have gone 9-0 UNDER if the line was at least 50 points, and none of their three previous games went under the total.  Take the Cowboys and Cardinals UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Kansas City.  Last Tuesday, we played against Josh Allen & Co., and were rewarded with a blowout win by underdog Tennessee, 42-16.  But off that blowout loss -- a game Buffalo failed to cover by 29 points -- we'll take the Bills to bounce back on Monday.  Indeed, NFL teams have gone 98-52-5 ATS in non-division games after failing to cover the point spread by more than 24 points, provided they weren't favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for Buffy this evening.  As does the fact that the Bills are 29-15 ATS at home off a straight-up loss, when the Bills owned a winning record.  Finally, defending Super Bowl champs are 0-8 ATS as road favorites of -4 (or more) points vs. winning opponents, if their opponent failed to cover the spread by 7+ points in its previous game.  Take the Bills + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last week, the Niners were embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins, 43-17, as an 8-point favorite.  It's not often that an NFL team -- much less, a defending Conference champion -- fails to cover the point spread by 34 points.  But that's exactly what San Francisco did last week.  We'll look for San Francisco to bounce back on Sunday night, as .350 (or better) home underdogs have covered 62% since 1980 off an upset loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Niners.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Green Bay Packers.  The Bucs lost their last game as a road favorite at Chicago, and will look to bounce back against the undefeated Packers.  We'll take Tom Brady & Co. as, Brady's teams have gone 12-0 ATS as an underdog (or PK) off a loss.  Also, over the last 41 years, winning teams have covered 64% as home underdogs off an upset loss as a road favorite the previous week.  Take Tampa Bay.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Miami.  On the surface, we have two teams going in opposite directions.  The Jets are 0-5 SU and ATS, and have lost each of their games by 9+ points.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins come into this game off an impressive 43-17 upset of San Francisco, and have covered three of their last four games.  However, Miami was an underdog in each of its five games this year, and now it's laying more than a touchdown.  That doesn't bode well for Miami, as it's covered just 36 of 105 at home when not getting more than 3 points!  And when laying more than 5 points, Miami's covered just 2 of its last 24 at home!  Even better:  winless teams, off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, have covered 60% over the last 41 years as road underdogs of more than 8 points.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Baltimore.  The Eagles return home on Sunday after back-to-back road games vs. the 49ers and Steelers.  Philly will welcome the Ravens, who blew out Cincy last week, 27-3.  Baltimore's been installed as a huge road favorite, but the number is inflated, per my models.  One of the things I love to do is play on big home underdogs off back to back road games, and especially if they're playing an opponent off a home game, provided that opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS loss.  Since 1980, our big home dogs (of more than 9 points) have covered 86.2% of the time (25-4 ATS).  That bodes well for Philadelphia on Sunday.  As does the fact that the Ravens have covered just nine of their last 33 road games off a win by more than 18 points.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Tennessee Titans.  The Texans kicked off the Romeo Crennel era with an easy 16-point win, 30-14, over Jacksonville.  They'll try to make it two-division-wins-in-a-row on Sunday when they visit Nashville to take on the Titans.  Houston will have a scheduling advantage for this game, as Tennessee was forced to play this past Tuesday, so the Titans will be playing with two days less rest.  Even worse for Tennessee:  it's a nightmarish 8-38 ATS at home when favored by more than three points vs. an opponent off a SU win, including 0-6 ATS if the Titans were off an upset win.  And it's 5-21 ATS off an upset win, when it wasn't getting 4+ points in its current game.  Finally, Tennessee has covered just seven of its last 23 vs. Houston, including 1-7 ATS when the Texans were playing with revenge.  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over Chicago.  The Bears upset Tom Brady and the Bucs, 20-19, as a 3.5-point home underdog 10 days ago, and are 4-1 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are a surprising 3-2 on the heels of a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  And all three wins were of the upset variety.  This will be the first time this season that Carolina wasn't an underdog.  Oftentimes, I will avoid playing on such teams that are unaccustomed to laying points.  But I will make an exception here, given that it's a short number.  Additionally, .666 (or better) NFL teams (like Chicago) have cashed just 39% over the past 41 years as a road underdog (or PK) off an upset win as a 3.5-point (or greater) home underdog.  Finally, the Bears are a horrible 2-12 ATS off an upset win, including 0-7 ATS on the road.  In contrast, the Panthers are 18-4 ATS off an upset win, including a perfect 9-0 ATS their last nine.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Indianapolis.  The Bengals have won just once, but have been extremely competitive this season, as they've lost just one of their five games by more than five points.  But that was last week's 27-3 defeat at Baltimore, which ranks among the four best teams in the NFL.  This week, the Bengals will take on the Colts who have sprinted out to a 3-2 record.  But two of Indianapolis' three wins were against 1-4 Minnesota (28-11) and 0-5 New York Jets (36-7).  So, Indianapolis' scoring margin of +7.6 should be taken with a grain (or, maybe, boulder) of salt.  I expect the Bengals to once again be competitive, as they fall into several of my very best systems that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Those angles have records of 113-36, 133-57 and 148-68 ATS.  Even better:  NFL road teams that scored 3 or less points the previous week have gone 80-42-3 ATS vs. .650 (or worse) foes, if our road team wasn't getting 10+ points!  And the Bengals are 24-7 ATS on the road as an underdog vs. .650 (or worse) opponents.  Take the Bengals + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Minnesota.  The Falcons are winless on the season, and will have a new coach (Raheem Morris) following the dismissal of Dan Quinn.  They hope to do what the previously-winless Houston Texans did last week following the firing of Bill O'Brien, and win their first game for their new head coach.  Atlanta will be in Minnesota to take on the equally-disappointing (1-4) Minnesota Vikings.  And, when it comes to betting on bad NFL teams, I would much rather take points than lay points with such clubs.  Indeed, NFL home favorites with a .200 (or worse) win percentage (at Game 4 forward), have covered just 110 of 245 games, including a soft 61-90 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Additionally, Atlanta falls into 158-76 and 110-61 ATS systems of mine that play on certain bad teams.  Take the Falcons + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns to go 'under' the total.  The posted total for this game is the biggest number in the history of the series.  Indeed, until this game, the highest over/under number for this rivalry was 47.5.  Last season, these two teams played extremely low-scoring games (21-7, 20-13) that each went 'under' the total.  But this year -- so far -- the two teams have been involved in high-scoring affairs.  Pittsburgh's last three games have gone 'over' the number (26-21, 28-21, 38-29), while Cleveland's last four have gone 'over' (35-30, 34-20, 49-38, 32-23).  However, since 1980, NFL games with over/under lines less than 56 have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time (86-58-6) if both teams played their two previous games 'over,' and each of those games generated more than 47 points.  Additionally, the Steelers have gone 'under' 8 straight times after playing a game with 50+ points scored, while Cleveland is 13-4 'under' after a game that produced 50+ points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Boston College.  After blowing out the NC State Wolfpack, 45-24, in Blacksburg to open the 2020 season, the Hokies had back-to-back point spread setbacks on the road, including a 56-45 loss at North Carolina last week.  But Justin Fuente's men are at home tonight, so that bodes well for them to rebound with a win and cover.  And they'll no doubt be intent on avenging the last two seasons' losses to the Eagles.  Also in the Hokies' favor:  they're starting to get back many players who missed their earlier games due to the coronavirus.  One such player is QB Hendon Hooker, who will make his first start of the season tonight (after seeing action in the 2nd half last week in Chapel Hill).  The Hokies are 61-33-1 ATS against opponents off a win, if the Hokies had a losing point spread record. And they're also 12-3 ATS off a loss, if they were playing with double revenge.  Take Virginia Tech minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over North Carolina.  Last Saturday, the Seminoles lost their 3rd straight game to a Bowl subdivision team.  But if there was a silver lining, it was that Florida State covered the point spread for the first time this season.  A key personnel change last week was the insertion of redshirt sophomore QB Jordan Travis into the starting lineup.  The Louisville transfer played well, and will be back under center to start this ACC Conference game.  Tonight, they'll welcome the #5-ranked Tar Heels to Tallahassee.  And this is brand new territory for North Carolina as none of its players were alive the last time it was ranked among the Top 5.  It played just one other road game this season, and it was a struggle, as the Heels won by just four points, 26-22, as a 14.5-point road favorite at Boston College.  North Carolina is a money-burning 17-32-1 ATS on the conference road off a SU/ATS win, including 0-5 ATS its last five, while Florida St. is 40-20 ATS off a road defeat.  The Seminoles also fall into 100-35 and 82-22 ATS systems of mine.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Texas A/M.  The Aggies stunned the Florida Gators in College Station last Saturday when they won outright, 41-38, as a 5.5-point home underdog.  But off that big upset win, we'll fade Jimbo Fisher's men on the SEC road this Saturday.  They'll be in Starkville to take on the Bulldogs, who will play with revenge from a 49-30 defeat last season to the Aggies.  Last week, Mississippi State lost to Kentucky, 24-2, as a 3-point underdog.  Turnovers were once again the culprit, as Miss State lost the ball six times to Kentucky.  And, for the season, Miss State has committed 14 turnovers to its opponents' five.  The number one goal, then, for Mike Leach's troops on Saturday will be to "hold onto the damn ball."  Texas A/M is a poor 37-55-1 ATS on the road off a home win, while revenge-minded home underdogs are a super 102-62-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off an upset home win.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida.  To say that the Tigers have "revenge" would be a massive understatement.  Indeed, the Tigers have lost the last 13 meetings to UCF, including regular and post-season meetings in both 2017 and 2018.  After not playing at all last season, they've been champing at the bit to avenge those losses, and will finally get the chance this afternoon.  We will fade the favored Knights, who come into this game off a bad upset loss to Tulsa.  Central Florida was favored by 20.5 points in that game, but fell by eight, 34-26.  Unfortunately for UCF, College Football teams off an upset loss where they were favored by 18+ points, have rebounded to cover just 48 of 132 games when they were favored by 25 points or less.  Like the Knights, the Tigers also come into this game off a loss, 30-27, as a 1.5-point road underdog at SMU.  The good news, though, for Memphis is that it's 38-21 ATS off a loss, if it wasn't an underdog of 3+ points in that defeat.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars were big underdogs in each of their first three games, and went 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS.  But here, South Alabama will be a favorite for the first time this season.  Unfortunately, the Jaguars have been horrid as a favorite over the years.  Indeed, South Alabama is 1-12-1 ATS its last 14 when laying 2 or more points (and 3-17-1 ATS when not getting more than 5 points).  That doesn't bode well for South Alabama on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Sun Belt favorites of 6 or less points are an awful 71-109-2 ATS at home, or on neutral fields.  Finally, the Bobcats fall into 99-34, 160-82 and 397-285 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in conference games that lost SU the previous week.  Take Texas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over SMU.  We played on the Mustangs in their last game, and were rewarded with a 30-27 victory against the Memphis Tigers.  But that was a massive emotional game for SMU, as they were at home, and playing with revenge from six straight defeats to the Tigers.  Here, the shoe is on the other foot, as it's Tulane which is at home, and playing with revenge from five straight losses to SMU.  The Mustangs are a horrid 8-24 ATS their last 32 road conference games after a home conference win, including 0-10 ATS if SMU owned a win percentage of .666 (or better).  And Tulane falls into a 36-4 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded home (or neutral-sited) underdogs off a loss against opponents off a win.  Take Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers come into tonight's Sun Belt Conference game off a 52-23 upset win over Arkansas St.  But off that upset win, we will fade Coastal Carolina tonight, as Sun Belt teams are an awful 8-30 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points in conference games, if they're off an upset win, and their opponent is also off a straight-up win.  Even worse, the Chanticleers fall into negative 27-77 and 111-200 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins.  Finally, Coastal Carolina has covered just 30.7% of the time as an underdog of more than 7 points, while the Cajuns are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS their last nine when priced from -6 to -14 points.  Take Lafayette.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Titans had 0 new infections today, so the NFL has given the green light for this rare Tuesday night game.  Tennessee comes into this game with a 3-0 record after not playing last week due to the outbreak of infections.  It will be missing several key players, including WRs Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, so I expect a heavy dose of RB Derrick Henry tonight.  Because of its hampered roster, the undefeated Titans have been installed as a home underdog vs. the similarly-unbeated Bills.  We'll grab the points with Tennessee, as rested home underdogs, with a .636 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 75 percent over the past 25 years.  Even better:  Tennessee is playing with revenge from a loss to the Bills last season.  And revenge-minded home underdogs have cashed 70% over the last 41 seasons vs. non-division foes, if our home dog had a winning record both in the previous and current seasons.  Take Tennessee + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys game.  The New York Giants have scored 9, 9, 13, and 16 points in their four games this season.  And three of the four have gone 'under' the total, with the lone game (NYG/SF) going 'over' the total by a single point.  But because of the propensity of the Cowboys to play high-scoring games (three of Dallas' four games have gone 'over'), the number for this game is the highest on a New York Giants game in almost two years, and the 2nd-highest in over 12 years.  We'll play on this game to go 'under,' as in the past 41 years, teams that have given up more than 31 points in each of their three previous games have gone 'under' the total 62.1% of the time.  And the 'under' also falls into 32-15, 69-43, 86-44, 61-28 and 84-41 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts come into Cleveland off three straight wins and covers, on the heels of a staunch defense which has allowed just 29 points combined in those three games.  But those three victories included home games against the 0-4 Jets and 1-3 Vikings.  This will be a much more difficult test for the Colts, given that Cleveland has scored 35, 34 and 49 points in its last three outings.  We'll play against the Colts, as unrested NFL road teams off 3 straight covers are a dreadful 0-13-1 ATS vs. .750 (or better) foes off a SU/ATS win.  And NFL home teams have cashed 78% since 1980 after scoring 80+ points in their two previous games, provided that they are not laying more than four points.  And home teams have also cashed 64.8% since 2001 after scoring more than 48 points in their previous game.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Miami.  We played against the 49ers last Sunday, and cashed the Philadelphia Eagles as our Sunday Night Football Game of the Month.  The Niners were 8-point favorites in that game, but lost, 25-20.  If there was a silver lining for the 49ers, it's that they outgained the Eagles in yardage, 417 to 267.  But three turnovers by 2nd-string QB, Nick Mullens, doomed them.  San Francisco, though, will get its #1 QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, back for this game (he missed last week with an ankle injury).  The Niners are a fantastic 60-23 ATS off an upset loss, if they were favored by 3+ points in that defeat, including 29-5 ATS vs. foes off an ATS defeat.  San Francisco is 8-2-1 ATS its last 11 vs. the Dolphins, including 4-0 ATS when favored by 3+ points.  Take the 49ers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals come into this game off back to back upset losses, after starting the season with wins over the 49ers and Redskins.  They'll look to get back on the winning track vs. the winless NY Jets.  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) teams off back-to-back upset losses, have cashed just 18 of 68 road games when not getting more than 2 points.  Yikes!  The Flyboys are 26-9 ATS at home off a home loss, including 11-1 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +10 points.  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Carolina Panthers.  Atlanta's 0-4 on the season, with losses to Seattle, Dallas, Chicago and Green Bay (all good teams), while Carolina is 2-2 on the season, but has played the much easier schedule, with games vs. Las Vegas (L), Tampa Bay (L), LA Chargers (W) and Arizona (W).  We'll take the Falcons to break into the win column, as winless teams, with an 0-4 (or worse) record, have cashed 65% over the last 29 years when not getting 3+ points against foes off a straight-up win.  Additionally, teams (like Carolina) off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 56 of 140 games when matched up against opponents off back-to-back losses.  Take the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Kentucky.  The Bulldogs opened their season with an impressive 44-34 upset win (as a 14.5-point underdog) at LSU -- a game in which QB K.J. Costello threw for an SEC-record 623 yards (and five touchdowns).  Understandably, the Bulldogs suffered a letdown last week when they fell at home to Arkansas, as a 16.5-point favorite.  But off that upset defeat, we'll grab the points with Miss State against the Wildcats, who are 0-2 SU/ATS this season.  Kentucky's never been reliable as a home favorite vs. SEC rivals, as they've covered just 13 of 35.  And Mississippi State also falls into a 99-50 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses, if they were favored by 13+ points in that upset defeat.  Finally, SEC Conference teams have gone 122-85 ATS away from home off an upset loss.  Take the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Marshall.  Three weeks ago, we played on Marshall as a home underdog vs. Appalachian State, and were rewarded with a 17-7 upset victory.  The Thundering Herd didn't play either of the last two weekends, but are back in action tonight, at Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers finally got into the win column last Saturday with a three-point win at Middle Tennessee, though they failed to cover the 7-point spread.  For the season, WKU is 0-3 ATS.  But we'll take the points with the Hilltoppers tonight, as home underdogs (or PK) off an ATS loss have covered the spread 83% of the time over the last 41 years vs. undefeated conference foes off an upset win.  Moreover, Marshall is 22-38 ATS as a road favorite, including 0-6 ATS off an upset win.  Take Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over North Carolina State.  Last week, Virginia fell to #1-ranked Clemson, 41-23, while the Wolfpack upset then-No. 24-ranked-Pittsburgh, 30-29, as a 14-point underdog.  They'll now look to avoid a letdown.  But they'll be playing their 3rd straight road game.  And the Cavaliers have not lost at home in their last nine at Charlottesville.  We'll play against the Wolfpack, as NCAA teams off upset wins as a double-digit underdog, have covered just 30.7% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  when playing without rest, NC State has covered just six of its last 37 on the road in competitively-priced games with a point spread less than 8 points, including 0 for its last 9.  Finally, the Cavs fall into 81-21 and 99-34 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off double-digit road losses.  Lay the points with UVa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over San Francisco.  Both of these teams are ravaged by injuries, with the latest being 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who sustained an ankle injury.  The 49ers, though, have survived better than the Eagles, as the 49ers are 2-1, while Philly is 0-2-1 after tying the Bengals last Sunday.  Curiously, the Eagles have been favored by 5.5, 2 and 5.5 points in their first three, but have yet to break through with a win.  Still, we will take Philly on this Sunday night, as we note that winless NFL teams are 100-61-4 ATS if they were not an underdog in their previous game.  Even better:  the Eagles are 114-79 ATS their last 193 as a road underdog, while the 49ers have gone 0-13-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. a foe not off a win.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Bears have been installed as a home underdog this afternoon, notwithstanding the fact that they're 3-0 on the season.  And one of the things I love to do is play on really good teams (that are at least 3 games over .500) as home underdogs (or PK) vs. .500 or better opponents that are off a win.  Since 1980, our strong home pups are 100-69 ATS.  Even better, the Bears are a super 45-25 ATS as home underdog of +3 or more points, while Indy is an awful 16-29-4 ATS when laying 3+ on the road.  Take Nick Foles & Co. + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Last week, we played against the Rams, and took Buffalo as a small home favorite.  The Bills rewarded us with a last-second win, 35-32, which lowered L.A.'s record to 2-1 this season.  Los Angeles will now take on the 0-3 Giants, and the biggest difference between the two teams is on the offensive side of the ball.  LA is averaging 29.67 ppg, while New York has only scored 38 points this season, for a 12.67 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the offensively-challenged Giants.  But consider that NFL underdogs of +8 (or more) points have cashed 61.4% if they average 17 ppg less than their opponent.  And 0-3 teams have gone 25-10 ATS on the road vs. foes off a SU loss.  Finally, New York's 78-47-3 ATS on the road vs. NFC Conference foes, including 11-1 ATS their last 12.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles + the points over North Texas.  The Eagles were thrashed last week, 66-24, by the Tulane Green Wave, as a 3.5-point underdog.  And that was the 3rd straight point spread loss by Southern Miss to start the season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against Southern Miss after last week's debacle, where they failed to cover the spread by 38.5 points.  But consider that teams that are winless ATS, at Game 3 forward, that failed to cover the spread by 35+ points in their previous game, have cashed 60% ATS over the last 41 years.  That bodes well for the Golden Eagles tonight.  As does the fact that Conference USA underdogs are 63-31-4 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses, when matched up against a conference foe off a loss.  Moreover, North Texas is a miserable 16-34 ATS in conference games when the pointspread was between +6.5 and -6.5 points.  Finally, the Mean Green fall into negative 285-395 and 90-196 ATS systems of mine that go against certain home favorites off straight-up losses.  Take the Golden Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Air Force + the points over Navy.  We played on the Midshipmen in their last game, a 27-24 upset win over Tulane (after trailing 24-0 at halftime).  Now, Navy will travel to Fort Collins to take on its military rival, who will be playing its first game of the season today.  Like many rivalries, this has been an underdog-oriented series.  Since 1992, the underdog has gone 19-8 ATS, including 6-1 ATS at home.  Additionally, the Falcons are 18-8-1 ATS their last 27 as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS at home.  And they're 88-63-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Finally, Navy has covered just 14 of 41 off an upset win when playing a non-conference foe, including 4-15 ATS its last 19 as a favorite.  Take Air Force + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Blue Devils have started this season 0-3 -- its worst start in the 13-year tenure of coach David Cutcliffe -- with three double-digit losses to Notre Dame, Boston College and Virginia.  But Cutcliffe believes his team is "close" to breaking through with a win, as he's been heartened by how his team has looked in practice.  The Blue Devils have been at their best when dressed up as an underdog, as they're 30-15-1 ATS their last 46, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +14.5 points.  Take Duke.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies + the points over Alabama.  The Aggies will look to snap their 7-game losing streak to the Crimson Tide when these two SEC Conference rivals meet in Tuscaloosa, on Saturday afternoon.  In Texas A/M's first game, it edged Vanderbilt, 17-12, as a 31.5-point favorite, while Alabama comes into this game off a 38-19 win at Missouri, as a 28.5-point favorite.  We'll take the Aggies as a double-digit underdog, as SEC Conference teams have gone 145-81 ATS in the regular season against .500 (or better) SEC Conference rivals, if our 'play-on' team was off a SU win, but an ATS loss.  Additionally, the Aggies fall into 52-21, 41-14 and 32-6 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis.  The Mustangs are 3-0, and have been scoring a lot of points this season.  They tallied 50 last week vs. SF Austin, and 65 the previous week at North Texas.  For the season, they're averaging 48.67 ppg.  As faithful followers know, I love playing on NCAA teams that can score.  And NCAA home underdogs off back to back games where they scored 48+ points, have cashed 69.2% since 1980, including 76.1% when playing with revenge.  With SMU, indeed, playing with revenge from a 54-48 loss to Memphis last year, our 76.1% tightener is satisfied.  Take SMU.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over the TCU Horned Frogs.  Texas lost last season, 37-21, to TCU, so it will be out for revenge this afternoon, in Austin.  The Longhorns' offense has been quite impressive this season, as it's averaging 61 ppg, on 582.5 ypg of total offense.  One of the things I like to do is play on revenge-minded teams that can score.  Since 1980, NCAA teams that average 55 ppg have cashed 78.7% when favored, and playing with revenge.  Even better:  TCU is a horrible 16-42-1 ATS vs. .600 (or better) revenge-minded opponents.  Lay the points with the Longhorns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Both of these teams enter today's game with identical 2-0 records.  But the Cougars have played the much more difficult schedule.  BYU opened its season with a 55-3 blowout of Navy.  And then it followed that up with a 48-7 trouncing of Troy State last week.  We played on BYU in last Saturday's victory, and we'll come right back with it tonight, as it's outscored its opponents by 46.5 points per game.  And that bodes well for it here, as teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 44+ points per game have covered 63% since 1980 when they were at home or on a neutral field.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 0-11 ATS when priced between +23 and +31.5 against non-conference foes.  Take Brigham Young.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the New York Jets/Denver Broncos game.  Through the season's first three weeks, the games have gone 'over' in 29 of the 48 games, with overall scoring up this year over last.  Neither of these teams has shown a propensity to stop their opponent's offense.  The Broncos have allowed 70 points over their first three games (and would have allowed much more, but for Titans' kicker Stephen Gostkowski missing several FGs and XPs in Week 1). Meanwhile, the Jets have given up 27, 31 and 36 in their first three games.  This over/under is the 2nd-lowest number of the 64 games scheduled thus far.  And, by my math, it's too low.  Indeed, the 'over' falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 72% since 1996.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Denver.  In this match-up of winless teams, we'll take the homestanding New York Jets minus the points.  It's true that the Jets are 0-3 ATS, while Denver is 2-1 ATS.  But winless SU/ATS teams have cashed 65% over the last 40 years, at Game 3 forward, if they were matched up against a losing team with a .500 (or better) ATS record.  And on Thursday Night Football, teams that have yet to win a game have cashed 70% at home (and 81% if they weren't favored by more than 5 points).  Take the New York Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona.  The Lions are 0-2 (so, what else is new?) to start the year -- the 7th time in 15 seasons they've started 0-2.  But they've been able to move the ball, as they've scored 21+ points in both games (vs. Chicago and Green Bay).  And 0-2 SU/ATS teams have cashed 60% in Week 3 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  Detroit is 37-11 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 12 points, while Arizona is 8-18 ATS at home vs. foes with a W/L percentage less than .140.  Finally, since 1980, road teams off back to back SU/ATS division losses have cashed 60% vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Last week, the Patriots went into a difficult Seattle venue, and lost to the Seahawks, 35-30, as a road underdog.  Meanwhile, the Raiders christened their new Allegiant Stadium with a 34-24 comeback win over New Orleans.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, they will have to face an ornery Patriots team which will not want to fall to 1-2.  And New England is an awesome 10-0 SU and ATS off a straight-up loss when playing an .833 (or better) opponent off a win.  Finally, NFL road underdogs off back to back wins, in which they tallied more than 30 points, have cashed just 31.4% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Patriots.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills over the Los Angeles Rams.  This line opened at -3, and has come way down -- to the point where I want to now step in and take the home team.  I had no interest in laying 3 points, but the value now squarely rests on the Bills.  Indeed, Buffalo falls into a great system of mine which is 74-33 ATS since 1981 which plays on certain winning teams not laying more than 1 points.  Yes, Buffalo failed to cover the spread last week in its win over the Dolphins.  But it still won, and is 2-0 on the season.  And the Bills also are 50-22 ATS at home off a point spread loss, if they're playing a foe off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-0, following their upset win last week vs. Philly.  Unfortunately, winning teams are a soft 256-332 ATS on the road off upset wins, provided they weren't laying more than six points.  Take the Bills at home.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Troy.  Both of these teams come into tonight's affair off blowout wins on the road.  The Trojans trounced Middle Tennessee St. in Murfreesboro, 47-14, while the Cougars annihilated Navy, 55-3, in Annapolis.  One difference, though, between the teams.  BYU has had the last 19 days off, while Troy played last Saturday.  We'll lay the points with the Cougars, as rested NCAA home favorites, of less than 40 points, are 128-76 ATS in non-conference home games, if they own a win percentage greater than .750.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Miami-Fla.  Miami defeated Louisville, 47-34, last Saturday.  But it gave up over 500 yards to Louisville, which outgained Miami, 506 to 485.  The Hurricanes, though, benefited from three Louisvlle turnovers, and that was the Cardinals' undoing.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles had last week off to lick their wounds following a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 12.  There's no doubt that Florida State will be enormously motivated to bounce back today, especially given that it's playing with revenge from a 17-point defeat to these Hurricanes last season.  We'll grab the double-digit with Florida State, as rested, revenge-minded teams, off a season-opening loss, have cashed 66% since 1980 vs. unrested foes.  Even better:  the underdog in this rivalry has gone 26-12-1 ATS over the last 40 years.  Take Florida State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over New Orleans.  Last seasons, the Saints won 13 games.  But NFL teams that won 13+ games the previous season have covered just 43 of 108 road openers when installed as a favorite.  Last Sunday, the Raiders went into Charlotte, and defeated the Carolina Panthers, 34-30.  Off that win, we'll play on Las Vegas in its home opener tonight.  Since 1980, winning teams, off a SU/ATS win, have cashed 65.3% at home on Monday Nights.  Even better:  the Saints are 3-10 their last 13 road openers, and they're an awful 0-7 ATS their last seven road openers when favored by 3 or more points.  Take Las Vegas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  Last year, the Ravens demolished Houston 41-7, as a 3.5-point favorite, which was Houston's worst loss in its franchise history when it had a winning record at the time of the game.  So, Houston's going to be out for revenge, here at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  We'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into a 62.7% ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that had a winning record the previous season.  Additionally, since 1980, home dogs of +6 or more points have cashed 67% if they were off a 14-point (or worse) defeat in Week 1, and their opponent was off a 14-point (or greater) victory.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Kansas City.  We played on the Chiefs in their home opener last week, and they rewarded us with a 34-20 victory over Houston.  And that extended the record of defending Super Bowl champs to 14-4-2 ATS in season openers since 2001.  Unfortunately, defending champs are a horrid 3-13 ATS in Week 2 as a road favorite after winning their season opener, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win.  And .501 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 64.1% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  This is a perfect letdown spot for the Chiefs, and especially because Kansas City also has a Monday Night game next week vs. the Baltimore Ravens, their closest competitor for AFC Conference supremacy.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Washington.  Both of these teams pulled off upsets in Week 1.  The Cards took down a very good 49ers team, 24-20, while Washington defeated Philly, 27-17 (after initially falling behind, 17-0).  It's exceptionally hard to pull off back to back upsets to start the NFL season.  Indeed, underdogs of more than 5 points in Week 2, that won outright as an underdog of more than 5 points in Week 1, have gone 1-28 straight-up, and 10-18-1 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Washington on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that, since 1980, NFL teams that won 25% (or less) of their games the previous season have gone 0-17 SU and 4-13 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points off an upset win in Week 1.  We'll lay the points with Arizona, as I look for the Cardinals to rout Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Green Bay.  The Packers upset the Vikings in Week 1, 43-34, while Detroit fell to Chicago, 27-23.  And that loss by Detroit was after it led by 17 points in the 4th quarter.  Green Bay is favored by almost a touchdown, but it's not defeated Detroit by 7 or more points in any of the last six meetings (and by more than 7 points in any of the last 10 games).  The Lions are 4-2 straight-up in the last six games, and won by an average of 12 points per game.  We'll grab the points with Detroit, as NFC North division teams are a fantastic 63-33-4 ATS off a loss when matched up against a division foe off a win, including 25-9 ATS on the road.  Even better:  the Packers are 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a SU/ATS road win.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the New York Jets.  Last season, the Niners lost just three games.  So, it was a bit of a surprise last week when they were upset at home by the Arizona Cardinals.  The good news for San Francisco is that favorites in Week 2, off an upset loss in Week 1, have cashed 63% over the last 40 years, if they had a .750 (or better) W/L record the previous season.  Additionally, the Niners are 8-0 ATS as a road favorite of -5 (or more) points off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Niners.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Dallas.  Both the Falcons and Cowboys suffered Week 1 losses last Sunday.  Atlanta was upset, 38-25, at home by Seattle, while Dallas fell by three on the road to the L.A. Rams.  We'll grab the points with the Falcons, as road teams have cashed 65.9% over the past 40 years if they were upset in their season opener, and lost by 10+ points.  Additionally, the Falcons fall into 48-9 and 57-17 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road teams off blowout losses.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Titans have dominated their AFC South division rival in Nashville, as the Titans have won six straight (4-1-1 ATS), with the last two by margins of 22 and 21 points.  Since 1999, the Titans are 16-5 SU and 13-7-1 ATS at home vs. Jacksonville.  Last Sunday, the Jaguars stunned Indianapolis, 27-20, as a touchdown underdog.  We'll look for a letdown today, as NFL road underdogs off an upset win by 7+ points over a division rival, are a soft 83-128-4 ATS.  Lay the points with the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo.  Each of these teams were involved in games with double-digit margins of victory last Sunday.  Miami lost by 10 to New England, while Buffalo won by 10 over the NY Jets.  The Bills, though, have been a horrible team off a double-digit win over a division rival, as they've covered just 12 of 50 since 1981.  Meanwhile, Miami falls into 133-70 and 295-223 ATS systems of mine that play on certain divisional home underdogs vs. unrested winning opponents.  Take the Dolphins + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over Georgia Tech.  Not much was expected of the Yellow Jackets this season, as they were picked to finish last in the ACC preseason poll.  But Georgia Tech stunned Florida State in Tallahassee last week, as a 13-point underdog.  Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, teams off an upset conference road win to start the season generally have letdowns their next game, as they've covered just 35% over the past 41 years.  The Knights are 19-6-1 ATS their last 26 when priced from -5.5 to -21.5 points.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Appalachian State.  Both Marshall and App State opened their 2020 campaigns with solid wins.  Marshall blew out Eastern Kentucky, 59-0, while the Mountaineers took care of Charlotte, 35-20.  We'll fade Appalachian State, as Sun Belt Conference favorites, with a .500 or better record, are an awful 0-12 ATS their last 12 (and 1-17 ATS their last 18) as favorites vs. non-conference foes off a straight-up win.  Take Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Navy + the points over Tulane.  The Midshipmen were blown out at home in their first game of the season, 55-3, by BYU, as a 1.5-point underdog.  Meanwhile, Tulane went into South Alabama, and defeated the Jaguars by three points, 27-24.  The fact that Navy lost to BYU should not have come as a surprise, as the Midshipmen are 8-16 their last 24 home openers.  But Navy's gone 12-5-1 ATS its last 18 road openers, and it's 119-65 ATS its last 184 away from Annapolis, including 33-8 ATS off a home defeat.  Take Navy to rebound this afternoon.  Grab the points.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Browns were roasted, 38-6, in Week 1 by the Baltimore Ravens.  But I love Cleveland to rebound on this Thursday night vs. its AFC North division rival, Cincinnati.  The last thing any NFL teams wants to do to start a season is go 0-2, and especially if each of its first two games are division contests.  Indeed, over the last 30 years, favorites have cashed 70.3% in division games in Week 2, if they lost to another division foe in Week 1, including 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS the last eight.  That bodes well for Cleveland tonight.  As does the fact that NFL teams that failed to cover the spread by 23+ points in Week 1, have rebounded to go 21-7 ATS in Week 2 vs. an opponent also off a loss, if our team was not getting 10+ points.  Take Cleveland minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Tennessee.  It's tough to make money going against the Broncos at home when they're an underdog, or a short favorite.  Indeed, since 1981, Denver's gone 50-22 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points.  Even better:  Denver's 28-11 ATS its last 37 home openers when not favored by double-digits, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog!  The Broncos have also dominated the Titans, with a record of 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Drew Lock & Co. to upset the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Over the years, Pittsburgh has significantly underperformed as road favorites of -2 or more points vs. non-division foes.  Since 1980, they've covered just 24 of 76 games. Additionally, dating back to 1983, home underdogs of +5 or more points have cashed 59% in September if it was Week 1, or they were not off a straight-up loss.  Yesterday, we saw the two big home underdogs (Jacksonville, Washington) pull off major upsets.  And I look for another upset by the Giants on Monday Night Football this evening.  Take the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Seattle Seahawks.  These two teams met last season here in Atlanta, and the Seahawks came away with a 27-20 victory.  But Atlanta was ravaged with injuries for that game, and was actually installed as a 7.5-point home underdog.  The two teams are much more even in talent for this game, and I have 83-49, 66-35 and 86-53 ATS systems on the Falcons.  Moreover, the Seahawks have always done great in their home opener, and extremely poorly in their road opener.  Dating back to 1999, the Seahawks have covered just 4 of 21 road openers.  Meanwhile, they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 home openers.  Similarly, the Falcons are a fantastic 17-4 ATS their last 21 home openers, but 4-12 ATS their last 16 road openers.  I expect those two trends to stay true to form this afternoon.  Additionally, over the last 16 seasons, in Week 1, non-division home teams have cashed 63% when playing with revenge from a home loss to a non-division foe the previous season.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Green Bay.  Last year, both of these teams made the playoffs, but the Packers defeated Minnesota in both regular season meetings.  I love Minnesota to avenge those defeats, as they fall into a division double-revenge system of mine which is 23-6 ATS since 1987, including a perfect 15-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -7 points!  Even better:  the Packers are 1-7 straight-up, and 1-6-1 ATS when getting 2+ points from a division rival it defeated twice the previous season.  Finally, the Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five home openers, while the Packers are a poor 4-7 ATS their last 11 road openers.  Lay the points with Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  Last season, the Chanticleers went into Lawrence, and upset the Jayhawks, 12-7, as a 7-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with Kansas in this rematch, as Big 12 Conference teams have cashed 73% over the last 20 years at home when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes.  Even better:  Kansas is an awesome 33-6 SU and 25-14 ATS when favored by 3 or more points, including 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Louisville.  These two Bluegrass State rivals met in Nashville last season, and the Cardinals came out on top, 38-21, as a 10.5-point favorite.  That was the 11th straight time Louisville has defeated Western Kentucky, dating back to 1982.  So, there's nothing the Hilltoppers' coach, Tyson Helton, will want more than to end that losing streak tonight.  Both of these teams had rebirths last season under 1st-year coaches.  Helton led the Hilltoppers to a 9-4 record, following a 3-9 campaign in 2018.  And Scott Satterfield guided Louisville to an 8-5 record after the Cards went 2-10 in 2018.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is to play on certain revenge-minded teams, and the Hilltoppers fall into several of my better revenge angles, with records of 129-72, 22-6, 72-31, 58-22 and 80-37 ATS.  The Cardinals have been installed as a double-digit favorite, but they're a wallet-busting 5-15 ATS their last 20 as a home favorite of more than 10 points.  And they're 3-14 ATS their last 17 as a home favorite, priced from -6 to -13.5, vs. non-conference foes.  Grab the points with Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane minus the points over South Alabama.  Last week, the Jaguars went into Hattiesburg, and upset Southern Miss, 32-21, as a 12-point underdog.  Prior to that win, the Jaguars had not won away from home in 15 games.  South Alabama will be back home for this game, but I don't believe a 2nd straight upset is in the offing.  Indeed, the Jaguars fall into two negative "letdown" systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins that have records of 106-181 and 67-113 ATS since 1980.  The Jaguars are an awful 35.7% ATS at home off a straight-up win, while Tulane has cashed 75% as a favorite vs. foes off upset wins.  And the Green Wave's coach, Willie Fritz, has gone 28-13 ATS as a favorite in his career, whether here at Tulane (since 2016), or at Georgia Southern before that (2014-15).  Take the Green Wave to blow out South Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Houston.  Last January, these two teams met in the quarterfinals, and we had a play on Kansas City minus 8.5 points, and also had our NFL Total of the Year on the over 51.  The Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead, but then collapsed, and lost 51-31.  One of the things I highlighted last season in my breakdown of that Playoff game was that Houston was the only team -- of the 12 that qualified for the post-season -- which had a negative scoring differential.  And they also had the 2nd-worst defense of any Playoff team, as they gave up 24.06 ppg in the regular season.  Yes, it's a new season, so Houston's defensive numbers don't carry over to this year.  Still, it's worth noting that the Chiefs have dominated teams that allow 23.66 points or more, as they're 32-8 SU and 26-13-1 ATS their last 40.  Some may look for a Super Bowl hangover in Week 1, but that theory has never actually been validated by the data.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are on a 16-3 SU and 13-4-2 ATS run in Week 1 since 2001.  Kansas City also falls into 11-0, 47-14, 82-49 and 65-28 ATS systems of mine.  And it ended last season on an 8-0-1 ATS run.  I won't step in front of this freight train at home, even with most of the seats empty.  Lay the points with the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Green Bay.  Last week, we played on the Packers and were rewarded with a 28-23 victory over Seattle.  And that was Green Bay's 6th straight win, overall.  Unfortunately, its win streak should come to a screeching halt this weekend, as it falls into a negative system, which is 5-35 SU and 9-31 ATS.  What we want to do is play AGAINST any underdog of +3 (or more) points off 5+ wins, if it's now playing a foe with a winning record.  And even though there's nothing wrong with 31-9 ATS, we can improve our situation to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS by solely going against teams that don't average 24.85 points per game on offense.  It's absolutely true that Green Bay will certainly want to avenge its blowout loss here earlier in the season.  But revenge-minded NFL teams have performed very poorly in Conference Championship road games, as they've gone 16-28 ATS.  Also, the 49ers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS as home favorites priced from -3 to -7.5 points in the Playoffs.  And NFL favorites, priced from -3.5 to -9.5 points have gone 30-15 ATS in Conference Championship games.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the West minus the points.  The West has dominated the East-West Shrine game of late, with 4 straight wins.  And, in those four games, the East squad has averaged 9.7 ppg.  That doesn't bode well for the East team on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that the East's three QBs are Tommy Stevens (Miss State), Kevin Davidson (Princeton) and James Morgan (Florida International).  In contrast, the West has the best QB (Mason Fine, North Texas) on its roster, along with Tyler Huntley (Utah) and Kelly Bryant (Missouri).  Lay the points with the West in the Shrine game on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Philadelphia/Seattle game.  These two teams met earlier this season -- here in Philly -- and the Seahawks won a very low-scoring game, 17-9.  And that's been par for the course for Philadelphia here, as the Eagles have now gone 'under' the total in their last six (and in 24 of their last 34) home games.  And they've also gone 'under' the total 7-1-1 in their last nine home NFL Playoff games.  Additionally, the 'under' is 33-18 in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 3.  And this game (to go 'under') also falls into a 23-3 Totals system of mine, which is statistically-based.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Buffalo/Houston game.  The Buffalo Bills have now played six straight games that totaled 41 or less points.  And outside of their two games vs. Miami, none of their other 14 games equaled the posted total for this game.  And it's not just on the defensive side of the ball where points are hard-earned; the Bills, themselves, have scored just 6, 17, and 17 in their three previous games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for yet another low-scoring Buffalo game on this Saturday.  But knee-jerk reactions are often the wrong move.  Indeed, teams (like Buffalo) that scored 42 or less points over their three previous games have gone 'over' the total 75 percent of the time over the last 26 seasons.  And these two teams also fall into 57-33 and 53-32 Totals systems of mine.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Pittsburgh.  This Quick Lane Bowl game will be played in the backyard of Eastern Michigan, as Detroit's Ford Field is just 36 miles away from Ypsilanti.  So, the crowd will definitely lean in favor of the underdog.  Pitt comes into this game off back to back losses -- and failed to cover the spread in those defeats by 16 and 24.5 points -- yet it's laying almost two touchdowns to the Eagles.  I have all the respect in the world for the job Pat Narduzzi is doing at Pittsburgh, as his team ranks #11 in defense this season (302.5 ypg).  But one of the things I will RARELY do in a bowl game is lay a lot of points -- and especially if the favored team isn't one of the best teams in the country (like an Alabama, LSU, Ohio State or Clemson-type of team).  And Pitt is certainly not of that caliber.  Another thing I will rarely do is lay ANY amount of points with a team which isn't playing well.  It's one thing to TAKE points with a team off a loss, or back-to-back losses to end the season.  But quite another to lay points with such clubs.  To wit:  since 2004, Bowl favorites, priced from -7.5 to -17.5 points, off back to back losses, are 0-11 ATS!  And, speaking of 11-0 ATS, that's the Eagles' point spread record away from home vs. non-conference teams when Eastern Michigan wasn't getting more than 15 points.  Finally, Pitt is a wallet-busting 8-22 ATS when laying 8+ points away from home, including 0-10 ATS if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game by double-digits.  Take Eastern Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over BYU.  The Cougars mustered just 3 points in their final regular season game -- a 13-3 defeat at San Diego St.  And that was their fourth straight point spread defeat to end the season.  Hawaii, in contrast, covered three of its last four games (and won four of its last five).  We'll fade BYU tonight, as it's a horrid 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite.  Even worse:  teams that scored less than 7 points in their previous game have covered just 13.3% in the Bowls over the last 40 years provided they weren't getting 5+ points, and also not playing with revenge.  And BYU isn't playing with revenge here, as it defeated Hawaii in Provo last year, 49-23, as an 11-point favorite.  This game, however, is in Honolulu.  And home underdogs have covered 64.1% in the post-season since 1980.  Finally, Hawaii's a super 22-3 ATS at home, if it owned a winning record, and didn't fail to cover the spread in the previous meeting by more than 15 points.  Take the Rainbow Warriors + the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore.  The Ravens have won 10 straight games (their last loss was to these Browns), and are the odds-on favorite to be the #1 seed in the AFC Conference.  But the point spreads of really good teams tend to be inflated late in the season.  And this game is a perfect example, as Cleveland is getting double-digits at home (which is roughly the same point spread dealt in Baltimore's road game at then-winless Cincinnati in mid-October).  We'll grab the points with the Browns, as home underdogs of +9 (or more) points have gone 14-0 ATS in the season's final four weeks vs. .833 (or better) opponents.  Additionally, the Ravens have covered just 3 of 19 road games off a win by 18+ points, and have also covered just 16 of 41 vs. foes playing their final home game of the season.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Tennessee.  We had our biggest NFL play of the year-to-date two weeks ago when the Texans met the Patriots, and pulled off a 28-22 upset.  We then, not surprisingly, went against the Texans last week vs. Denver, as a letdown was in order, and they certainly had one, as they lost outright to the Broncos, as an 8-point favorite.  But I love Houston to bounce back this afternoon vs. the Titans.  Indeed, since 1980, divisional road underdogs, off an upset loss by more than 10 points the previous week, are 86-49-4 ATS.  It's absolutely true that Tennessee is red-hot, and on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak.  But unrested teams off 4 SU/ATS wins are a soft 107-138 ATS vs. winning opponents.  Finally, the Texans are 15-6 ATS their last 21 vs. Tennessee, including a perfect 8-0 ATS if the Texans failed to cover their previous game by more than 3 points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Kansas City.  Last week, we had our strongest NFL play of the season-to-date on the Houston Texans + over New England.  And we easily got the $$$ in an outright right by DeShaun Watson & Co.  But we'll switch gears this Sunday, and take the Patriots off that defeat.  Indeed, there's no better coach in the business than Bill Belichick when it comes to readying his troops to rebound off a loss.  To wit:  the Patriots are 49-9 straight-up, and 42-16 ATS (72.4%) when coming off a loss (compared to 175-56 SU and 131-94 ATS (58.2%)) when coming off a win.  It's true that the Chiefs will be playing this game with revenge from last year's playoff defeat.  But New England is 5-1-1 ATS when priced from -3 to -6.5 against a foe which has revenge from a playoff loss.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 3-7 SU/ATS when playing with Playoff revenge.  Lay the points with New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs + the points over LSU.  The Bulldogs have lost just once this season.  And that was a 20-17 setback vs. South Carolina, in a game where the Bulldogs committed four turnovers (against 0 for the Gamecocks).  The calling card for this Georgia team is its defense, as the only time it has given up 20 points in a game was that loss to South Carolina.  For the season, Georgia's given up just 10.4 ppg, while LSU's defense rates 11.66 ppg worse, at 22.1.  We'll take the points with the Bulldogs, as underdogs with a defense which gives up, at least, 7.9 less points than its opponent, have gone 35-14-1 ATS in the post-season.  Additionally, the Bulldogs are an awesome 24-7 ATS their last 31 away from home.  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Minnesota.  This is a great match-up tonight between two teams that still have an opportunity to get the #1 seed in the NFC.  These teams have met five times this decade, and the Seahawks have won each of those games, and covered all but one.  I look for them to extend their win streak in this series to 6 straight, as the Seahawks are 67-25 SU and 53-36-3 ATS at home their last 92, including 33-17-2 ATS when not favored by 7+ points.  Even better:  Monday Night home teams off back to back road wins have gone 26-9 ATS, while the Vikings have gone 0-8 ATS their last eight Monday Night road games. Take the Seahawks...Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.