Red Sox -137 4* LNF Sox are red hot with the bats 6.96 runs per 9 over their last 10 with a 1.85 ERA from their bullpen over that period as well. Rays 5.17 and 4.26 over their last 10. Sox also have the advantage on the mound tonight with Becket over Niemann. Becket had a 1 hit complete game vs. the Rays in JUne and over his last 3 starts vs. them he's got 21 IP and 1 ER giving up just 11 base runners. Niemann has struggled at home 1-3 5.53 ERA and he's backed by an offense that really struggles vs. RHP particularly at home as we mentioned in yesterday's winning play. Boston is #1 in OPS vs. RHP .816 Rays are 18th. Red Sox also hit righties real hard on the road and are 21-5 in their last 31 game #3's!

Rangers -132 (4.5* MLB POD) The Mariners are just 11-16 during day games this year and the Rangers are scoring more than a run per game during day games than the Mariners who are 30th with just 2.81 runs per day game. Mariners face another lefty they are also 30th with a .607 OPS vs. LHP this year. They have scored just 1.58 runs per 9 in their last 10 while the Rangers are at 7.21. Matt Harrisson has pitched great away and during day games with a 2.86 away and a 1.70 during day starts and he's had plenty of success vs. the Mariners with a 2.14 ERA over his last 3 starts. Texas just kills RHP and surged to #2 in OPS vs. RHP. They face rookie Beaven making his 3rd start. Beaven faced Angels and Padres not exactly slugging teams. He had a 4.45 ERA in AAA so I'm not impressed as he's been extremely lucky in his first two starts posting a .167 BABIP and 97.8 left on base percentage both will surely go up today vs. the Rangers who are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the Mariners.

Twins -128 (4* OE Play) After losing 2 of three to the Royals the Hot Twins look to even the series at 2 a piece and I think they'll do that. They are 13-0 in Brian Duensing's last home starts as a favorite. Twins are also 28-11 in their last 39 meetings with the Royals. Duensing has been great during day starts with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He's got a 2.77 ERA before this year during day starts so he likes the day games and I think he takes advantage of his success vs. the Royals in 6 career starts he's 5-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Royals just 16-42 in their last 58 as a dog and 11-40 in their last 51 road games vs. a LH starter

Braves -178 (2.5* play) There has been no better starter than Jurrjens, that is for sure. He's 7-1 with a 1.78 ERA at home and 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA during day starts. He's got a 2.75 ERA in his last 6 starts vs. the Nationals who have a .593 OPS vs. him in 87 combined at bats while Atlanta has had success for Gorzelanny. Uggla, Prado, Heyward are 6-14 with a HR. Atlanta is 16-1 in Jurrjens starts as a -151 to -200 favorite.

Rangers -103 (3* play) Little odd to see this line, but when Felix pitches he deserves to be respected. But the Mariners offense does not. They are 30th with a .609 OPS vs. Lefties this year and are 6-23 in their last 29 home games vs. LHP 14-37 last 51 overall. Rangers offense is just hot right now 10-1 in their last 11 vs. RH starter and in their last 10 games they are hitting .305 6.65 runs per 9 vs. RHP while the Mariners just .174 2.05 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Felix is 2-4 in his last 6 starts vs. the Rangers

Red Sox +132 (4.5* MLB POD) Lackey says his arm feels good and with a couple of extra days with the All Star break I do believe him. Last night it was a rare loss for the Sox but they still put up 6 runs. Boston is flat out dominant during day games for whatever reason and we have said this before. They are scoring more than 2 runs per game during day games than the Rays 6.48 vs. 4.34 and are the #1 team by far wtih a .875 OPS during day games. Now they face Shields who has been dominant in his own right and in his last start vs. the Red Sox he pitched a complete game shut out at home. That should be the Sox motivation. Gonzalez, Ortiz and Pedroia have ridiculous numbers vs. the righty who is playing above his actual talent and I believe that will start to come back to earth. Shields is also receiving the least amount of run support at home of any other team with just 1.92 runs per game. Look for that to continue today Lackey is 11-4 with a 3.75 ERA in 16 starts vs. the Rays. Back to Shields bc he is the main reason this is our POD today with a lot of value. Take out his last complete game start and he's 3-6 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his previous 9 starts vs. the Sox. In the last 10 games the Sox are hitting .302 scoring 7.07 runs per 9 and have a 2.11 ERA out of the pen. Tampa just .257/4.97/4.07. Rays really are not on the same level as the Sox vs. RHP as they are ranked 18th with a .713 OPS and the Sox #1 .816 ops. Rays at home just a .227 average and 3.34 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Red Sox on the road .261 5.46 runs per game. Look for the Red Sox to improve to 22-8 during day games.

Twins -120 4.5* MLB POD It's kind of hard not to back this team right now they are 16-5 in their last 21 home games and are on a roll right now. Blackburn makes the start and has been awful of late, but I still feel confident he has the pitching advantage over Luke Hochevar who also has an ERA over 9 over his last 3 starts and the Twins hitters are way hotter right now with the bats hitting .402 vs. RHP over their last 5 games scoring 10.18 runs per 9 while KC just .237 and 2.91. KC is 15-41 in their last 56 as a dog. Hochevar has been awful at night and away with 6.21 ERA away and a 1-7 5.68 ERA during his night starts. IN 9 career starts he's 3-6 with a 5.43 ERA vs. the Twins and a 1.51 WHIP. Twins hitters have 116 AB with a .336 average and .947 OPS while KC which has had success int he past off Blackburn have just 100 AB with .240 average and .580 OPS. Twins are just one of those teams that dominate within their division and that's what we have here. Last July these teams went in opposite directions and I see it happening once again. Last July Twins were #1 with a .847 OPS and #2 with 5.69 runs per game while the Royals were #23 with a .703 OPS and 3.76 runs per game during the month of July. That just tells you where their players focus is during the dog days of the summer and right now the Twins are the hottest team in baseball.

[b]Twins -142 (4.5 * POD)[/b]
I love the Twins here. Liriano looks for revenge lasttime he faced the Royals he gave up 7 ER. We backed Chris Carpenter on two max plays like this too before the break and won both as Carpenter bounced back. Chen may have a 3.26 ERA on the year but Twins hitters are hitting .319 off the lefty and in his last 3 starts vs. the Twins he has a 2.06 WHIP over 17 IP as he's given up 6 walks 29 hits and 14 ER. Royals have just a .653 OPS vs. Lirano and July is Chen's worst month by far over the last 3 years where he has posted a 6.36 ERA over 10 starts. in every other month he has an ERA in the 4's or lower.

4* mlb pod

3* play

4* mlb pod

Cardinals -137 5.5* MLB POD Cardinals have not lost 4 in a row at home all year and I don't think it will start today with their ace on the mound in Chris Carpenter. We backed him in his last start as our last max play and I"m confident doing it again. He's got a 2.61 ERA at home a 0.75 ERA in his last 3. He has extra motivation like he did in last start as he gave up 7 ER on the road to the Reds he won at home pitching 8 shutout innings. Today he faces a Dbacks team that roughed him up for 8 ER on the road and now he's back home to prove the same thing. His previous 10 starts vs. the Dbacks he has a 2.58 ERA. Cardinals continue to slug and Daniel Hudson has not been the same pitcher on the road as he is at home with a 4.58 ERA on the road.

Twins +137 6* Dog of the Day Twins will take this game as they dominate the White Sox. Buehrle has been great of late, but he faces a hot Twins team which in his last 3 home starts against them has a 7.70 ERA. Brian Duensing has been hot and has been successful against the White Sox.. Twins roll again.

Brewers -130 (4.5* MLB POD); Twins +150 (3* DOD) Love the Brewers tonight despite missing Ryan Braun. They have plenty of players who have a lot of success against the Young Leake. Morgan, Betancourt, Fielder, and Weeks combined are 14-25. That's a huge chunk of this line up that has had success against a road pitcher. The Brewers are 31-13 at home for a reason they hit and we get great value here with Greinke because he's made some mistakes in big moments and has been the most unluckiest pitcher this year. I still think he's going to have a huge second half and in two starts vs. the Reds he's got 18 K's over 15 IP. He's #1 in the league in K/9 ratio for starting pitchers and his xFIP is 2.17 which is much lower than his actual. Brewers are 7-0 in his home starts despite his home ERA he's kept them in games and it doesn't hurt that Milwaukee is scoring 5.43 runs per 9 vs. RHP and their bullpen has a 3.51 ERA at home too. Cinci just 3.92 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road and they are also in a bit of a slump batting just .245 wtih 3.52 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10. Reds are 18-38 in their last 56 road games vs. a winning team. They have a combined .333 average without Braun over 45 at bats vs. Leake. Twins keep getting it done. While I think Blackburn continues to struggle because he just isn't that good he's been excellen in two starts vs. the White Sox and Floyd well it can't get much worse. Over his last 4 starts vs. the Twins he's given up 50 base runners in 25.1 IP along with 23 ER. Minnesota has 121 AB collectively a .331 average and .926 OPS. Twins are really hitting as of late and the White Sox are not. 5.36 runs per 9 vs. 2.85 per 9 tells the story over the last 10 games. Also in division games. The Twins just dominate they have dominated the White Sox and it's because of their pitching. Floyd is 3-14 in his last 17 vs. AL Central while Blackburn is 16-5!

Brewers -130 (4.5* MLB POD); Twins +150 (3* DOD) Love the Brewers tonight despite missing Ryan Braun. They have plenty of players who have a lot of success against the Young Leake. Morgan, Betancourt, Fielder, and Weeks combined are 14-25. That's a huge chunk of this line up that has had success against a road pitcher. The Brewers are 31-13 at home for a reason they hit and we get great value here with Greinke because he's made some mistakes in big moments and has been the most unluckiest pitcher this year. I still think he's going to have a huge second half and in two starts vs. the Reds he's got 18 K's over 15 IP. He's #1 in the league in K/9 ratio for starting pitchers and his xFIP is 2.17 which is much lower than his actual. Brewers are 7-0 in his home starts despite his home ERA he's kept them in games and it doesn't hurt that Milwaukee is scoring 5.43 runs per 9 vs. RHP and their bullpen has a 3.51 ERA at home too. Cinci just 3.92 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road and they are also in a bit of a slump batting just .245 wtih 3.52 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10. Reds are 18-38 in their last 56 road games vs. a winning team. They have a combined .333 average without Braun over 45 at bats vs. Leake. Twins keep getting it done. While I think Blackburn continues to struggle because he just isn't that good he's been excellen in two starts vs. the White Sox and Floyd well it can't get much worse. Over his last 4 starts vs. the Twins he's given up 50 base runners in 25.1 IP along with 23 ER. Minnesota has 121 AB collectively a .331 average and .926 OPS. Twins are really hitting as of late and the White Sox are not. 5.36 runs per 9 vs. 2.85 per 9 tells the story over the last 10 games. Also in division games. The Twins just dominate they have dominated the White Sox and it's because of their pitching. Floyd is 3-14 in his last 17 vs. AL Central while Blackburn is 16-5!

2.5* dog play

4.5* mlb pod

2* LNF

Phillies +128 (2* DOG) I like the Phillies to continue their domination of the Marlins who are 7-26 in their last 33 games 6-21 at home with no signs of that being turned around as the Phillies collected a season high 18 hits last night. They go up against Anibal Sanchez who has the 2.78 ERA at home, but has struggled of late and has not pitched that great vs. the Phillies in his career. 207 AB total the Phillies have a .285 average vs. him and an .831 OPS. Utley, Howard both have OPS well over 1.000. Florida's bullpen has been awful 6.89 last 10 and Kyle Kendrick has pitched well at night this year 3.48 ERA and July is his best month he's got 3-0 3.00 ERA last 4 starts vs. the Marlins

Red Sox -115 (4* MLB POD); Love the Sox they are #4 in the league in OPS vs. lhp this year and Romero has been hot and is due to come back to earth at some point. He has not enjoyed pitching in Boston over his career with an ERA over 5.5 in his career. Also July is his worst month with a 5.01 ERA over the last 3 years combined. Boston has a collective 121 AB with a .380 average 1.072 OPS vs. Romero. Those are unheard of numbers in a large sample size. He's got an ERA over 7 in his last 4 starts vs. them.

Angels +104 *4.5* MLB POD I like the Angels they have been hot winning 9 of 11 and have a major bullpen advantage here as Detroit continues to struggle out of the pen with a 5.65 ERA on the road while the Angels have a 2.13 at home. Over the last 10 games Detroit's bullpen has been terrible with a7.59 ERA. LA has been doing a lot of things well and they have a solid history vs. Verlander that gives me the confidence to take the Angels. Angels over 148 AB have a .324 average and .828 OPS vs. Verlander and the way he's going just can't keep up a 0.79 ERA over his last 7 game starts. We saw it with Cliff Lee over the weekend and I believe this is the start we see it with Verlander. 2009-present Verlander has made 9 starts out west mostly vs. the Angels, Mariners, and the A's and he has posted a 5.55 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and his last 3 at LA resulted in an 8.62 ERA. He opposes a pretty good starter in Dan Haren who has a 3-3 record and a 2.12 ERA and is very capable of getting a win today. Tigers are 7-17 in their last 24 road games as a favorite -110 to -150 and 16-35 in their last 51 games at the Angels.

Cardinals -115 (5.5* MLB POD) Cardinals and Reds do not like each other that is one thing that's obvious last time they faced off the Reds swept the Cards at home and the series ended with Pujols on the DL after getting hit with a pitch. Benches have cleared in this series and it is obvious that these teams don't like each other. Carpenter struggled in his last start vs. the Reds, but over his previous 9 starts he was 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA. Pitching at home will help him in this one and he's been great of late going 16 innings giving up just 14 base runners and 2 ER. He is 20-6 during home starts from 2008-2010 and will look to continue to pitch great in July something the opposing pitcher can not state. Carpenter from 08-2010 has a 2.70 ERA in July starts while Cueto's worst month is July posting a 5.34 ERA in his career in July with a 4-6 record over 16 starts. More on Cueto he has a 1.84 ERA, but he's been extremely lucky with a .211 batting average with balls in play which is well below his career average and I expect that to start coming back towards the mean. Why wouldn't it happen today? The Cardinals have a 139 AB a .331 average and .975 OPS vs. Cueto. Cueto has been better as of late vs. the Cards, but I think it will only take a run or two for the Cardinals to win this one as i expect Carpenter to be dominant in this one ast he Reds have 224 AB with just a .215 average and .619 OPS vs. Carp. Reds have lost 9 of 15 and 8 of those games they only managed 3 runs or less. Cardinals are 14-2 in Carps last 16 Monday starts, and 47-16 in his last 63 game 1 starts while the Reds have really struggled in St Louis going 18-43 in their last 61. They are also 2-7 when Cueto is on 5 days rest and 10-24 in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Twins +106 (2* Dog of the day) It's a rematch of the Brewers 6-2 win as Narverson and Pavano collide, but the Brewers are the worst road team in the NL just 15-28 and they are 1-6 vs. AL teams. narverson too just 1-3 on the road with a 4.93 ERA and a 5.26 ERA at night while Pavano who also struggles on the road will benefit from being home this time around where he is 3-1 and posts a 2.64 ERA. He's also pitched better during night starts with a 3.48 ERA. Milwaukee has really struggled in AL ball parks just 2.4 runs per game and a .214 average. Joe Mauer has a 3 hit game on Friday and looks to be getting back in a groove. The Twins are 39-13 in their last 52 inter league home games and 20-8 in their last 28 inter league vs. a LH starter. During their last 10 games they have a .295 average and are scoring 7.30 runs per 9 vs. LHP.

[b]Braves -174 (4.5* MLB POD)[/b]
Guthrie in his last two starts has gone 12 IP giving up 24 base runners for 2.00 WHIP and 9 ER. Braves winners of three straight games will look to make it #4 when they send their ace to the mound. Braves have been hitting vs. RHP they are .259 with 6.44 runs per 9 in their last 5 games overall while the Orioles are .277 3.79 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They are 7-19 in Guthrie's last 26 road starts while the Braves in inter league play are 16-5 with the spread is between -151-200. Guthrie has not pitched more than 6 innings in over a month which could be a major problem as the they have 27th ranked bullpen while the Braves have the #1 bullpen. Braves are 8-5 following an off day while the Orioles are 9-25 vs. winning teams this year. Braves win this game. Orioles are just 3-12 vs. teams with a top 6 bullpen ERA.