Blue Jays -114 3*play
I like Alvarez over Hunter. First of all he's got 3 great performances against the Orioles who are 17th in OPS vs. RHP and they have acomibned 54 AB .204 average and a.555 OPS. Last time he pitched at Camden he went 8 IP 0 ER. He's got a WHIP of 1.03 this season and a WHIP under 1 in 22 IP in three starts in the last year vs. the Orioles who over their last 5 are hitting .200 vs. RHP and are scoring 3.09 runs per 9. ON the other hand the Jays are hitting .308 5.23 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5 and they own Tommy Hunter who in 7 career starts has a 7.40 ERA. His best start vs. the Jays was 6.1 IP 4 ER. So he's been consistently bad. Jays are 48-23 in their last 71 meetings.

White Sox -108 (4.5* MLB POD)
Love the White Sox once again today as I think they have a significant pitching advantage. I see a lot of value for them on the road where they have played well this year. Colon who will start for Oakland has had a great start to the season posting a 2.63 ERA over 4 starts, but now he faces a team ranked in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP in the White Sox with a .752. Colon had 3 starts vs. the Mariners who are 27th with a .613 and a start against the Angels who are off to a slow start ranked 18th. Colon has been helped by a .229 BABIP and his 2.63 ERA is not as good as advertised as he's got a 3.42 xFIP still very good, but he did post an ERA over 5 in Spring Training and now he'll play a team that has been hitting in the White Sox who are .278 vs. RHP on the road 5.34 runs per 9 and over their last 5 they post even better numbers of .290 and 6.37 runs per 9.

Jake Peavy will make a start on the road where he actually was very good last year posting a 3.35 ERA in 8 starts. Peavy has been impressive thus far posting a 2.75 ERA in 3 starts vs. some good hitting teams in the Rangers, Orioles, and Tigers. He's got a 21:2 K/B ratio which is very impressive bringing his FIP below 2. Oakland now is 26th in OPS vs. RHP and I don't see them being able to get to Peavy who they haven't really faced with only a combined 19 AB on the roster and a .211 average. Oakland just .222 at home vs. RHP and 3.32 runs per 9. White Sox also have the better bullpen posting a 1.45 ERA on the road and a 0 ERA over their last 5 while Oakland has a 3.23 ERA at home. White Sox are 19-7 in their last 26 road games as a favorite.

Dbacks -114 2.5* play
Phillies offense has been awful they are 8-51 with runners in scoring position over their last 6 games and they are 28th with a .582 OPS vs. LHP which they'll face tonight in MIley a pitcher they have never seen before. They are hitting just .206 and 1.38 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road this season. While the Dbacks are having issues of their own ranked 21st .696 OPS vs. RHP it's been mostly due to injuries and with Upton looking like he's back and Montero having solid numbers vs. Kendrick 4-6 HR I am confident the Dbacks will win tonight. Kendrick has 2 appearances at Chase Field and posts a 6.43 ERA. He has a 5.15 xFIP this year despite his 1.93 ERA out of the bullpen. Dbacks are 22-6 in their last 28 as a home favorite and 36-16 in their last 52 vs. RH starter.

White Sox -114 3* play
Love the Sox in this spot here today Danks has been great vs. the the Mariners pitching a CG last year at Safeco allowing 0 runs in both of his starts against them a year ago. We go back the last 3 years and Danks is even better over 8 starts he's 6-1 with a 1.50 ERA and he posts a 0.55 ERA in 4 starts at Safeco over that time. Mariners hitters have 171 AB and a .205 .549 OPS vs. Danks. Montero has 0 AB and though he hits lefties better it will take some time to adjust by then it will be too late. Seattle is last in the league wiht an OPS .628 vs. LHP and they are last during day games .439 OPS. While the White Sox are 14th .731. Sox also are backed up by the 5th rated bullpen 2.45 on the year compared to the Mariners 20th 3.74 bullpen ERA. The long ball will be the difference here. White Sox have 96 AB vs. Millwood and a .928 OPS thanks to Adam Dunn who is 8-19 with 6 HR off Millwood. Konerko is also 10-27 vs. Millwood.

Reds -146 (4.5* MLB POD)
Cueto has been dynamite during day starts as he posted a 2.01 ERA last year and over his last 25 day starts he posts a 2.73 ERA. He's already off to a great start and the Reds offense is showing signs of getting out of their slump as they posted 6 and 9 runs in back to back games before 1 yesterday in a loss. I see them bouncing back as they go up against Randy Wells who got recalled from AAA Iowa for Dempster.

Wells had some rough outings in 3 starts in AAA and is giving up nearly 2HR/9. That's really been his problem the last few years and the Reds have guys in the line up with plenty of homers as they post 140AB .293 and .884 OPS. The starting line up has 92AB and a .326 average and 5 of the 7 hitters that have faced him have over a .400 OBP that means people will be on base all day today. Speaking of the day the Reds are 16th in OPS during day game .720 compared to the Cubs .630. Last year the Reds were one of the best day teams on offense posting a .768 OPS and the Cubs were 20th .696. Wells had a 5.22 ERA during 13 day starts last year and posted an 8.74 ERA in two starts vs. the Reds. I see the long ball having an impact in this game and I think Cueto will be great against a Cubs line up that's 25th in OPS vs. RHP this year.

Royals +105 2* bonus
Royals are due for a win and a day game is a good opportunity against the Blue Jays. Their offense has been just awful during day games and Duffy has been good through 2 starts and the Jays really have not seen him. Jays 21st .684 OPS during day games were 22nd last year .684 OPS during their day games while the Royals have a .806 thus far this year and were 9th with a .739 OPS during day game.s They also have a lot of success against Ricky Romero as they have 41 AB a .366 average and .957 OPS. This team can hit they have just gotten a slow start and I think this is a good opportunity for them to get into a groove and win some games. Blue Jays are not a good road team and it's a real challenge getting a road sweep.

Tigers -150 5.5* MLB POD It's very difficult to beat a team twice in a double header and considering the Tigers are already down 8-0 in the first I"m going to say it's a loss. Verlander knows he has to step up big time because the Tigers really do not want to be swept. Also he has to step up considering the bullpen is going to be hanging for game #2. I just think the Rangers will have a let down in game #2 especially the way they've been hitting. Facing Verlander in game 2 of a double header is no easy task after you played a 3 hour game. Verlander has a 2.50 ERA over the last 3 years while compiling a 32-8 record at home. Tigers are 41-12 in his last 53 home starts and over his last 4 he has a 2.33 ERA vs. the Rangers. Rangers have 147 AB with a .211 avg and .579 OPS. Feliz goes for the Rangers and posts a 4.70 ERA in relief during 8 games last year as the Tigers have a .303 and .899 OPS in a very limited 33 at bats. Still the Tigers vs. RHP at home are scoring 7.72 runs per 9. Verlander will only need a couple.

Rangers -121 (3* bonus)
Love the Rangers here despite Yu Darvish allowing a .450 OPS. He's already proven he can get himself out of jams and that's a valuable skill. Wilk I"m not so confident on the other hand from Detroit. The guy posted a FIP over 4 in 100 innings in AAA and now he goes up against Texas who is #1 with a .956 OPS vs. LHP and they have been just as good on the road with a .973 OPS on the year. To me this game comes down to which pitcher is better and which bullpen holds the lead and that to me is Texas as they have 2nd best bullpen ERA to the Tigers 14th. Texas is 40-16 in their last 56 game #1's and 62-19 in their last 81 as a favorite 24-5 in their last 29 as a road favorite.

BlueJays -122 (4.5* MLB POD)
Going with the Jays today as I think it's a pretty even matchup offensively with both teams having similar OPS vs. RHP last year and to this point this year. The biggest difference is Toronto is just a different animal at home thus far vs. RHP they are hitting .260 with a 5.82 runs per 9 at home so far while TB is .216 4.10 on the road. What I'm more confident in is the Blue Jays bullpen and starting pitcher for Tampa's.

First of all Hellickson looked terrible in his road match up with Boston posting a 9.00 ERA giving up 3 HR. He's visited Toronto twice and in neither game did he go deep into the game meaning the Rays bullpen will have to be relied upon once again and they are a major league worst with a 9.31 ERA compared to the Jays 4.38 bullpen ERA. Alvarez on the other hand has been a lot sharper this year in his home starts he has a WHIP under 1.00 in 2 starts vs. capable offenses of the Orioles and the Red Sox, a team that beat up on Hellickson. Rays are 7-19 in their last 26 as a road dog +110 to +150.

Cardinals -122 (2* play)
Garcia got bombed in Cinci giving up 11 hits in 4.2 IP in his last start but that's reason for revenge and these are great odds considering. It will be a flip flop as I believe Latos will have a harder time against the Cardinals pitching on the road where St. Louis is just dominating. St Louis is #1 in the league in OPS at .870. Even without Freese and Berkman this team has been great as Matt Carpenter stepped in and proved he's a clutch player. The Reds are good against lefties but Garcia at home is a different pitcher where he posted a 2.55 ERA last year. This is his first home start so I expect a good game out of him. HIs last 4 home starts vs. the Reds he posts a 2.18 ERA.

Marlins -130 4.5* MLB POD
We get great odds here considering the Cubs being the road team. That's because Matt Garza has been great this year with a 1.23 ERA, but the Marlins hitters have plenty to be confident about. For on they have 67 AB, .328 average and a .974 OPS in their combined careers vs. Garza. Garza did dominate them last year but that was at home. This is Garza's first road start this year and first start at night. Two scenarios he did not like a year ago as he posted gray home & day ERA's of 2.46 and 2.69, but he had a 4.56 ERA on the road and a 3.92 ERA at night. He is coming off a start where he threw 119 pitches which is an awful lot this early in the season and he's playing a Marlins offense that just started to heat up scoring 19 runs in their last 4 games compared to 27 over their first 8.

Mark Buehlre also makes the start for the Marlins and he's been pretty good thus far and now he gets to pitch in the friendly new park for the first time. Buehlre has faced the Cubbies many times with the White Sox and posts a nice ERA against them as the Cubs hitters have 182 AB but just a .225 average and .562 OPS. Cubs are 3-11 in their last 14 as a dog and the Marlins have a considerably better bullpen with a 3.54 ERA overall compared to the Cubs 4.50, but they are at home where they post a 2.84 compared to the Cubs 5.25 on the road.

Brewers -125 (2* bonus play early)
The magic carpet ride is over for the Dodgers although I do think they are serious contenders in the NL West. At 9-1 they have been the best team but now they go on the road for a change. Dodgers just are not hte same team way and neither is their starter Chad Billingsley who has a 0.63 ERA in two starts. I remind you those two starts came against the Pirates and at San Diego. Now he heads to Miller Field where he posts a 4.50 ERA in his last 2 starts. He had a 5.34 ERA away from home last year combined. Brewers were #6 in OPS vs. RHP last year while the Dodgers were 22nd. Brewers were also 5th in the league with an .805 OPS at home and Galardo had a 3.00 ERA at home and a 2.81 ERA during night starts last year. Brewers are 50-17 in their last 67 as a home favorite and 41-20 in their last 61 vs. RH starter.

Giants -128 (4.5* MLB POD)
Bumgarner had two challenging road starts at Colorado and Arizona and he survived. He posted a 3.12 ERA at home last year and has some pretty good numbers against the PHillies as he posted 2 ER 9K in 8 IP allowing just 6 hits in a home start last year. The Phillies just can't score and despite their 4 first inning runs last night against Lincecum who hasn't been Lincecum their offense was ice cold. Same was true at home against the Mets and now the Phillies are ranked 28th with a .591 OPS vs. LHP. Which isn't surprising since they were 21st with a .701 OPS vs. LHP last year.

On the flip side Joe Blanton starts for the Phillies after a great start but I think he has a let down here after trying to prove himself in the first start. Pagan and Posey are 7-15 vs. Blanton and Posey was 3-4 last night. Look for this offense to continue to click which is ranked 11th in OPS vs. RHP this season. Giants offense is not as bad as it was last year and they are better vs. RHP. Giants bullpen is their main concern but I"m not worried about them at home where they post a 1.17 ERA this season. Giants are now 7-2 in their last 9 vs. RH starter at home and that will move to 8-2 after tonight.

Brewers -125 (2* bonus play early)
The magic carpet ride is over for the Dodgers although I do think they are serious contenders in the NL West. At 9-1 they have been the best team but now they go on the road for a change. Dodgers just are not hte same team way and neither is their starter Chad Billingsley who has a 0.63 ERA in two starts. I remind you those two starts came against the Pirates and at San Diego. Now he heads to Miller Field where he posts a 4.50 ERA in his last 2 starts. He had a 5.34 ERA away from home last year combined. Brewers were #6 in OPS vs. RHP last year while the Dodgers were 22nd. Brewers were also 5th in the league with an .805 OPS at home and Galardo had a 3.00 ERA at home and a 2.81 ERA during night starts last year. Brewers are 50-17 in their last 67 as a home favorite and 41-20 in their last 61 vs. RH starter.

Giants -128 (4.5* MLB POD)
Bumgarner had two challenging road starts at Colorado and Arizona and he survived. He posted a 3.12 ERA at home last year and has some pretty good numbers against the PHillies as he posted 2 ER 9K in 8 IP allowing just 6 hits in a home start last year. The Phillies just can't score and despite their 4 first inning runs last night against Lincecum who hasn't been Lincecum their offense was ice cold. Same was true at home against the Mets and now the Phillies are ranked 28th with a .591 OPS vs. LHP. Which isn't surprising since they were 21st with a .701 OPS vs. LHP last year.

On the flip side Joe Blanton starts for the Phillies after a great start but I think he has a let down here after trying to prove himself in the first start. Pagan and Posey are 7-15 vs. Blanton and Posey was 3-4 last night. Look for this offense to continue to click which is ranked 11th in OPS vs. RHP this season. Giants offense is not as bad as it was last year and they are better vs. RHP. Giants bullpen is their main concern but I"m not worried about them at home where they post a 1.17 ERA this season. Giants are now 7-2 in their last 9 vs. RH starter at home and that will move to 8-2 after tonight.

Angels -179 5.5* MLB POD I'm not a fan of many of the lower lines here today, but I love the Angels and even at -179 I see value. McCarthy has a 2.50 ERA over 3 starts for the A's so this line is a bit lower than it really should be and I"ll take the juice either way. Jerred Weaver has a 1.42 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Oakland who have a .225 .607 OPS in 178 career AB vs. Weaver. Oakland is 26th vs. RHP on the road with a .577 OPS and they are 28th overall vs. RHP with a .569 OPS. While the Angels are 11th .768 OPS vs. RHP this year. Angels at home have a .364 average and 6.08 r/9 in the young season vs. RHP and they've had success vs. McCarthy. The Angels have 71 AB and a .893 OPS vs. McCarthy who is getting too much credit here today is 2.50 ERA is impressive then again he did face the A's twice and the Royals. The one advantage Oakland does have is bullpen as they are ranked in the top 10 with a 2.45 ERA but the Angels have a 1.12 ERA at home out of the bullpen.

Mariners -107 4.5* MLB POD
This will already be the 7th meeting between the Mariners and the Athletics and I expect the Mariners to take the rubber game int his match up. Both are very similar teams but in my opinion the Mariners have the better hitting team and they are of course at home here today. Jesus Montero is a big reason why and he's got an 8 game hitting streak and had a big day yesterday and is now hitting .323. Figgins/Ackley have also been key at the top of the line up hitting .320 and .308 in the 6 games vs. the A's this year. A's are now 17-35 in their last 52 as a road dog. While the Mariners hitters are enjoying success the A's are not led by their big off season acquisition of Cespedes who is in the middle of a 2-26 slump.

Blacke Beavan will make the start and he had a 3.69 ERA during day starts. I think he has some revenge on his mind as he didn't play well against the A's. Small sample and I was thoroughly impressed with his 3.48 ERA this spring and his 6.1 IP 1 ER at Texas, a hitters ball park against one of the best offenses in the AL. Beavan hardly walks people and if the A's don't get on base via the walk it's a real challenge for them to get runs. Godfrey goes for the A's and is off a 5.09 ERA this Spring. I don't like stats from last year and I don't see him going deep here with Cooper behind the plate where the A's are just 8-20 in their last 28 with him there.

Pirates +135 2* play
Giants bullpen is in real dismay. Not only are they currently 27th with a 5.00 ERA they just lost Brian Wilson for probably the season. Pittsburgh is #2 thus far with a 2.01 ERA. Vogelsong a real question mark comes off the DL to pitch after back spasms had a 5.91 ERA vs. the Pirates last year over 2 starts while Kevin Correia has a 3.67 ERA over 5 career starts vs. the Giants, none last year. Correia posted a 2.64 ERA on the road in 14 starts and April seems to be his best month posting a 2.90 ERA last year. He's off to a good start after giving up just 1 ER to the Dodgers.

Astros +140 2* free play
I like the Astros today because I'm still not buying into Zambrano who did look good at times on his opening day start but Bud Norris looked better vs. the Rockies going 7 innings giving up 2 ER. A consistent xFIP guy in the 3's Norris is one of the most under rated pitchers in baseball because he pitches for Houston. Zambrano also comes off a spring in which he had a 2.03 WHIP and 6.23 ERA. It also doesn't help him that he has to face Carlos Lee who is 24-67 with 5HR and a 1.098 OPS lifetime. Norris also has an ERA during night starts that is more than a run better than Zambrano. So far this season the Astros have a better approach at the plate to as they have a .740 OPS vs. RHP while the Marlins are 23rd with a .631 OPS vs. RHP. Marlins are also 13-38 in their last 51 home games vs. a RH starter.

Phillies -145 (4.5* MLB POD)
Not a ton of value here, but I believe it will be an easy win. Jonathan Niese looked great in his opening day start at home, but the road was not as kind to him last year where he posted a 5.33 ERA. Although I expect better things from Niese on the road this year looking at his xFIP I don't expect it today because I expect a bit of a let down after he carried a no hitter for most of the game in his last start before giving up 3 ER. He has not had that much success against the Phillies in the past and Utley/Howard not in the line up actually hurts him as the lefties were just 3-22 vs. Niese. Replace those bats with righties and advantage goes back to the Phillies who have roughed Niese up pretty hard in their ballpark. Niese's last 3 starts here have resulted in 16 ER over just 14.1 IP while giving up 24 hits and 4BB. Mayberry and Polanco have been the reason and they are both in the line up today along with Hunter Pence in the clean up spot who can do damage against LHP.

On the other side I think it's a mistake the Mets start David Wright who is 1-7 against Worley who had a 2.34 ERA at home including 2 GS 13 IP 7 hits and 1 ER at home vs. the Mets. Worley's xFIP is in the 3's from last year. The Phillies are also 43-18 in their last 61 vs. a LH starter and are built to beat lefties more without Howard and Utley in the line up. They are also 11-3 in Worley's last 14 as a favorite.

Rockies -107 (4.5* MLB POD)
I love this play Arizona has cooled down which is expected after playing in San Diego in what is a pitchers park. Now they go to Coors Field but over the last few years the Rockies have really learned how to win with pitching here. Juan Nicasio starts for the Rockies following his great 1st start 7 IP 1 ER with nasty stuff vs. the Astros. Nicasio will face a line up with 6 RH batters. That's good news for him.

First off Nicasio had a 1.98 and a 4-1 record at Coors last year before his neck injury. What's impressive is his 3.43 XFIP which is much lower than his 4.14. At home his FIP was even better but more importantly he dominates vs. RHB. He's averaging a 2.59 FIP vs. RHB and 6K/BB as opposed to 2.15K/BB vs. lefties. He's also allowing only 15.8% line drives vs. RHB compared to 27.4% vs. LHB. IT also helps that the Dbacks have never seen Nicasio before.

On the flip side you have Hudson who has struggled in April before and is coming off a rough start. He'll have his hands full with a Rockies line up that showed just what it's capable of with scoring 17 runs on Wednesday. Rockies are now 4th in the league in OPS vs. RHP with a .816 while the Dbacks dropped to 15th. Rockies bullpen has also been excellent at home with a 1.98 ERA and I think the starting rotation will start to folllow starting tonight. Both teams were close in OPS vs. rhp last year 8th for the Rockies 9th for the Dbacks but the Rockies are now healthy after having many injury issues a year ago. Dbacks are just 2-6 when Hudson is on 8 days rest like today. I see the Rockies winning.

2** BONUS

Dbacks -130 4.5* MLB POD; Piarates +125 2* bonus
I love Ian kennedy in this spot here today as the padres made a late come back yesterday. Now Kennedy goes up against the padres who he has dominated over his career - 1.82 ERA over his last 5 starts and 44K's over 34.2 IP. His last 3 at petco result in a 1.00 ERA. The Padres are currently 24th with a .596 OPS VS. RHP. They have just a .207 average vs. Kennedy in 111 AB and amiserable .547 OPS.

On the flip side the Dbacks face Anthony Bass who has been in the bullpen and starting roll he had 48.1 IP last year mostly as relief but 3 starts. His ERA for the season was 1.68 ERA, but starting is a different game and his xFip was 4.62 which to me suggests he lacks the stuff to be a full time starter especially since he had just 4.47 K/9 and 3.91BB/9. DBACKS ARE 36-15 IN THEIr last 51 vs. a RH starter and I think having Jason Kubel will only help that in 2012 as he posts a .874 OPS vs. RH pitching over the last 3 years combined with 53 HR.

[b]RED SOX -115 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Boston looks to put their 1-4 start behind them in an earl day game today. Boston was 30-20 last year during day games while the Jays were just 26-34 posting a 4.53 ERA. Lester will go up against Romero twoo of the best south paws in the AL east, but Lester has been the one dominating the match up. The last two matchups the REd Sox have outscored the jays 22-5. However, lesters success is much deeper.

Lester had a 2.08 ERA over 5 starts vs. the Blue Jays last year and over the last 3 years has a 2.71 ERA over 13GS. The jays have struggled thus far in the early games posting just a .591 OPS during day games compared to the REd Sox .692 during day games. Lester has dominated Jays hitters holding them to a .177 average and a .554 OPS over 164 combined at bats. He looked good in his first start against the Tigers the #1 offense in the league currently while Romero looked bad in his start against the Indians one of the worst vs. LHP last year and one of the worst offenses to start the year. Cleveland posts a .557 OPS thus far and was 20th vs. LHP, but they got to Romero as he had just 5 IP 4 ER.

Romero has struggled vs. the Red Sox as Youkilis/pedroia/ Ortiz and Ellsbury are a combined 37 for 97 with 6 HR. Romero struggled and was just 5-6 during day starts last year with a 3.72 ERA while Lester enjoyed a 3.25 day ERA. Romero had 4 starts and a 6.56 ERA vs. Boston last year and has allowed a .838 OPS vs. the Sox over 180 AB. boston is 49-24 in their last 73 vs. AL East with lester on the mound and that continues here today.

Orioles +127 (2* PLAY)
Wei-Yin Chen not Bruce Chen makes his debut tonight against the Yankees and the Yankees seem to always have some issues with pitchers they haven

Orioles +127 (2* PLAY)
Wei-Yin Chen not Bruce Chen makes his debut tonight against the Yankees and the Yankees seem to always have some issues with pitchers they haven

Brewers -126 4.5* MLB POD
Marcum who struggled in just 2 starts this spring, but he has a career ERA over 5 I Spring and has always been solid in April posting a 2.21 ERA last year and 2.80 over the last 3 years combined. He also had a MLB best 2.21 ERA in 16 road starts last year. Cubs have a combined 63 AB with a .143 average and a .460 OPS vs. Marcum who had 8 IP and 1 ER at Wrigley last year. I expect a similar game considering the Cubs offense which was ranked 18th last year in OPS vs. RHP.

Brewers on the other hand should be in good shape as they face off against Chris Volstad. Volstad has a career 5.63 ERA in 3 starts at Wrigley and he had a 5.32 ERA last April. Volstad has never been good early in the year and I expect the Brewers to jump on him early today. Aramis Ramirez returns to Wrigley after playing nearly a decade. Ramirez is a big key considering he is 6-12 with a HR vs. Volstad.

Rockies -164 (3* Early Bird Special)
Barry Zito going for the Giants is never a good sign and the lefty has a 9.31 ERA in his last two starts vs. the Rockies who return home where they had the 6th best OPS last year .796 and that was despite having injuries. The offensive additions of Scutoro and Cuddyer are going to be huge in my opinion. Jhoulyis Chacin makes his first start and he could be the best pitcher on this staff. Chacin had a 2.91 ERA in 5 starts in April last year and has 3.57 ERA at home where he seemed to be more consistent. Chacin also had 3 starts in 2011 vs. the Giants posting a 3.38 ERA and in 6 career starts posts a 2.79 ERA. Giants have 89 AB a .213 average and .652 OPS vs. Chacin. Zito won

Giants -120 3* play
Cain is off his best Spring by far where he posted a 2.10 ERA in 6 starts. Last year he also posted a 2.48 ERA during the day and it appears that the Giants offense has improved. I know it's early but Sandoval seems to be in shape and getting Buster Posey back is another huge lift and scoring 4 runs in back to back road games is kind of a big deal for the Giants despite losing both. I think they avoid the sweep here today. Cain over the last 3 years has a 3.06 ERA in April and he's been pretty solid vs. the Diamondbacks. On the other side I don't trust Collmenter.

Collmenter had a nice year last year 3.30 ERA at home, but I still think he comes back to life after always being in the bullpen before starting. He never went longer than 5 innings this spring and the Diamondbacks will likely have to go to their bullpen early here. Collmenter posted a 9.95 ERA this Spring and I"m just skeptical on what he can give this team this year.

Yankees +100 2* bonus
Another team looking to avoid the sweep. I'm backing Phil Hughes who has a lot to prove as a starter. A lot of people say he belongs in the bullpen and he may end up there before the season is out but he's off a great spring where he posted a 1.56 ERA. Hellickson on the other hand had a 1.90 WHIP and 9.00 ERA. Yankees were the best day team last year and posted the #1 OPS at .834 while Tampa was .733. They've been dominating the Yankees at home, but I think the Yankees will avoid the sweep on Sunday and the +100 odds are not bad.

Red Sox +115 4* MLB POD
Max Scherzer vs. Clay Bucholz. I like Bucholz despite the uncertainty with his stuff off surgery. Bucholz posted a 1.02 WHIP this season compared to Scherzer who had a 5.76 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Boston has had a ton of success vs. Scherzer while the Tigers not so much against Bucholz.

Bucholz has 31 road starts over the last 3 years and a 2.94 ERA vs. the Tigers he has 5 starts and a 1.57 ERA including a 2.92 ERA @ Detroit. Tigers a different look, but still 103 AB vs. Bucholz and they manage just a .194 average and .606 OPS. I think the Sox will avoid the sweep here today with a strong performance from Bucholz and their offense which has 59 AB vs. Scherzer and a .946 OPS. Scherzer has 3 starts vs. Boston and a 9.45 ERA. He has two starts at home and posts a 16.71 ERA with a WHIP over 2 vs. the Red Sox at home. Boston is 46-22 in their last 68 meetings with the Tigers and 20-6 in their last Sunday games so I expect them to avoid the sweep and move on to the next series.

Yankees +115 (3* play)
Love the Yankees after they blew the save last night as they look to bounce back against a pitcher they've had plenty of success against in David Price. Price did not enjoy pitching at home last year as he went 4-9. Price had a 6.61 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 3 home starts vs. the Yankees who have a .785 OPS in 234 AB with 10 HR vs. Price. The long ball has been his weakness vs. the Yankees who were #1 in 2011 in OPS vs. LHP with A .827. TB was just average at home and vs. RHP who they face on Saturday. They were 18th in OPS vs. RHP and 21st with a measly .705 OPS at home.

Kuroda comes over from the Dodgers and I expect nothing but quality starts from Mr. Consistent. He's consistent at home and on the road in his career and the Rays are facing him for the first time which to me gives Kuroda the edge. Kuroda has a 6-3 April record with a 2.71 ERA over 11 starts the last 3 years and he enjoyed a 2.92 ERA over 6 starts this spring posting a 1.09 WHIP. I'm interested to see him facing AL teams especially in the AL East, but the Yankees again dominate lefties and that continues here as they build on their 35-16 record over their last 51 games vs. a LH starter.

Marlins +142 (3* play)
A day off is exactly what this Marlins team needed and now they can get back to their goal. They definitely had a hangover Thursday night traveling to play a day game after they opened up their new stadium. I was not shocked to see them come out flat and I expect them to bounce back today against Latos who has a 9.26 ERA in two starts vs. the Marlins. Hanley Ramirez is 2-6 with a HR and he needs some confidence as he along with Stanton are hitless so far this young season. Bonifacio/Reyes are a combined 3-5 vs. Latos who in 8 career April starts has a 5.57 ERA.

On the flip side Nolasco gets the start for the Marlins and he pitched a full Spring and looked solid at times. Nolasco is 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA vs. the Reds in his career and the Reds were only 15th with a .717 OPS vs. RHP last year. The Reds are going to be an up and down team that goes as far as their pitching takes them and I'm not a believer in Latos and this team is a better hitting team vs. LHP where I will back them but I'll fade them vs. RHP.

Dbacks -108 4.5* MLB POD
These odds are just too good to pass up. Daniel Hudson has a 2.93 ERA in 4 starts vs. the Giants last year while Bumgarner has been successful he's struggled in Arizona as he posted a 4.27 ERA over two starts in Arizona. Bumgarner was solid in the Spring with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, but last April he posted a 6.17 ERA. Dbacks have solid numbers vs. him with 3 HR and a .794 OPS including Upton/Young who are 12-21 with 2 HR and 4BB vs. Bumgarner.

Arizona was 17th with a .725 OPS vs. LHP but the Giants were 28th vs. RHP with a .675 OPS. I predict both of those stats from 2011 will improve for both teams, but the Dbacks have a .781 OPS from last year at home where they picked up right where they left off in 2011 when they were 7th in the league as they got to Tim Lincecum right away. The additions of Kubel and the progress from Goldschmidt are huge keys to this season for the Dbacks. I think the Dbacks get up early in this one and they don't look back as they continue their dominance at home as they are now 44-20 in their last 64 home games.

Rockies -122 4.5* POD
Rockies are a brand new team and I love what they did with their offense adding Scutoro who gets on base and Cuddyer who could have a huge year batting behind Carlos Gonzalez and Tulowitski. Tulo is an MVP type player and very consistent he's 3-10 with a HR vs. Wandy Rodriguez while the Rockies players have 89 AB a .360 average and 1.037 OPS vs. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros starter.

Flying under the radar though is Jeremy Guthrie and he is the reason I like this match up, more than the improved offense from Colorado. Guthrie used to pitching in the AL Central now faces off against the Astros who were 27th in OPS vs. RHP last year with a measly .665. Colorado has a .733 OPS vs. LHP. Houston also 22nd with a .695 OPS at home. Guthrie had a 2.53 ERA last April and actually enjoyed a better Spring than in years past. Wandy Rodriguez on the other hand had a rough Spring 7.29 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP. The Astros who got new ownership also have tons of young players now with the exception of Carlos Lee. I don't see how this team can be any better than last year. The bullpen was awful last year 29th with a 4.49 ERA and their starter today has 4 starts over the last 3 years and a 5.76 ERA vs. the Rockies. I see Colorado being back in the mix in the NL West and it starts by beating the weaker teams.

[b]Orioles -119 3* Early Bird Special[/b]
I love the Orioles here despite the Twins looking as healthy as they have been in quite some time with Morneau and Mauer in the starting lineup.

Indians +120 2.5*
On the surface it looks like the Blue Jays would be the play with that offense being incredible last year and everyone back. They even have a .323 average and .828 OPS combined in 65 ab vs. Masterson. However, most of that damaged came in 2010 in Masterson's start in Toronto when he gave up 8 ER. Masterson, a sinker ball pitcher is in a totally different situation at home here. He's posted good numbers in April in his career including a 2.18 ERA last year. Also Toronto on the road last year was nothing special as they were 15th with just a .700 OPS also 13th with a .719 OPS vs. RHP, so just average. Cleveland however had a .734 OPS at home last year and were one of the better home teams early. They are also healthy like they were to start 2011 when they got off to a 30-15 start. Ricky Romero has a 4.85 ERA at Progressive Field and Masterson just seems to be the better choice here in my opinion at home as a do

Dodgers -143 4.5* MLB POD
The Dodgers have a lot to be excited for with new ownership and the return of the NL MVP and CY YOUNG winners. Kershaw goes today and he is 25-7 in his last 32 starts vs. the NL West. The Dodgers have a major advantage in this game with Kershaw who posted a 2.35 ERA during day games and a 2.87 ERA on the road last year and even better he has 10 GS in the last 3 years vs. the Padres and posts a 1.87 ERA and a 2.04 ERA at Petco Park where opponents have a .171 average against him. The Padres were dead last last April with a .600 OPS and they were 23rd with a .688 OPS vs. LHP for the season, .665 26th during day games. I don't see much of that changing at least against Kershaw.

On the flip side Edinson Volquez tries to make a new name for himself and this is the park to do it. Volquez however struggled big time last year and this spring although numbers are not terrible 3.48 ERA he handed out 11 walks in just 20 innings pitched. Dodgers should have runners on base all afternoon while Kershaw picks up right where he left off. The one thing that's a huge question mark is the depth of the Dodgers bullpen but they don't need it today. Both Jansen and Gueara are the 8th and 9th inning guys who will get the work and both posted ERA's well under 3 last year with Jansen striking out an amazing 96 over just 53 IP and opponents hit .153 against him.

Indians +120 2.5*
On the surface it looks like the Blue Jays would be the play with that offense being incredible last year and everyone back. They even have a .323 average and .828 OPS combined in 65 ab vs. Masterson. However, most of that damaged came in 2010 in Masterson's start in Toronto when he gave up 8 ER. Masterson, a sinker ball pitcher is in a totally different situation at home here. He's posted good numbers in April in his career including a 2.18 ERA last year. Also Toronto on the road last year was nothing special as they were 15th with just a .700 OPS also 13th with a .719 OPS vs. RHP, so just average. Cleveland however had a .734 OPS at home last year and were one of the better home teams early. They are also healthy like they were to start 2011 when they got off to a 30-15 start. Ricky Romero has a 4.85 ERA at Progressive Field and Masterson just seems to be the better choice here in my opinion at home as a do

Dodgers -143 4.5* MLB POD
The Dodgers have a lot to be excited for with new ownership and the return of the NL MVP and CY YOUNG winners. Kershaw goes today and he is 25-7 in his last 32 starts vs. the NL West. The Dodgers have a major advantage in this game with Kershaw who posted a 2.35 ERA during day games and a 2.87 ERA on the road last year and even better he has 10 GS in the last 3 years vs. the Padres and posts a 1.87 ERA and a 2.04 ERA at Petco Park where opponents have a .171 average against him. The Padres were dead last last April with a .600 OPS and they were 23rd with a .688 OPS vs. LHP for the season, .665 26th during day games. I don't see much of that changing at least against Kershaw.

On the flip side Edinson Volquez tries to make a new name for himself and this is the park to do it. Volquez however struggled big time last year and this spring although numbers are not terrible 3.48 ERA he handed out 11 walks in just 20 innings pitched. Dodgers should have runners on base all afternoon while Kershaw picks up right where he left off. The one thing that's a huge question mark is the depth of the Dodgers bullpen but they don't need it today. Both Jansen and Gueara are the 8th and 9th inning guys who will get the work and both posted ERA's well under 3 last year with Jansen striking out an amazing 96 over just 53 IP and opponents hit .153 against him.

Marlins -175 5* POD; U7 Runs 1.1*
The Marlins have pretty good numbers against Kyle Lohse who has an 8.00 ERA in his last two starts vs. the Marlins. What I like most is that the Marlins have seen him twice this spring. However, he's pitched well early in hte year and during this spring, but over the last 3 years he's got an 5.08 ERA on the road he's just not the same guy and this is a new ball park that's supposed to be pitcher friendly which is why I like the Marllins who have a lot to prove with all the acquisitions none bigger to me than Heath Bell.

Bell anchors this bullpen that was great early last year and came back to earth later. Marlins finished ahead of the Cardinals bullpen and to me they have a better overall bullpen for 2012. Josh Johnson will make the start and he's been throwing 96-98 in spring training and he's actually had a 2.11 ERA in April over the last 3 years combined so I'm not worried about him at all based on his spring training performance 15.1 IP 5 ER 17K's. Marlins should be pumped to open up their new ballpark tonight.

Mariners +106 (4* POD)
I like the Mariners in this match up I think they have an overall more talented team and they start the lefty Thursday morning with Jason Vargas going up against Oakland who he had a 3.86 ERA against last year despite a 1-3 record. To me the Mariners have many more dangerous hitters in their line up. I really like Ichiro's approach and he has said he's more determined this year and had a better off season it really showed with his 4-5 performance. Ichiro in the #3 hole they can afford to do that the way Ackley came on to end last year. He's your perfect #2 hitter very patient. Behind Ichiro is Montero the big bat who gets on base along with the prospect Carp. All in all there are many more dangerous parts and Oakland was 28th in the league last year vs. LHP with a .651 OPS. Though the Mariners were bad vs. RHP and they'll face Colon a major question mark this season I believe they have improved their offense. We also can't ignore the bullpen and the Mariners did not lose anyone out of their bullpen that was better a year ago and they added veteran lefty George Sherill to the mix. what looks like a pitchers match up I believe we see some runs as both teams had 15 hits on Wednesday.

Cardinals -113 (5.5* MLB POD) Everything changed in this series with that rain delay. Now Carpenter could go Friday night should be interesting and I think the Cardinals will get there with Jaime Garcia on the mound for much of the same reasons that I had him in game #2 which he pitched well enough to win 7 IP 3 H and 0 ER. It took the first time in nearly 30 playoff games that a team leading after the 7th inning lost as Motte blew the save and we lost, but... I love the Cardinals tonight Jaime Garcia should give the Rangers trouble in this cold game. Rangers are not excited for this weather and they have struggled to score more than 4 runs per game vs. LHP in their road games. Before game #2 the Rangers had a .571 OPS vs. LHP in the post season and now they have gotten worse with a .522. Josh Hamilton just is not himself and creates a huge hole in the #3 spot advantage to the Cardinals who will face Colby Lewis who as I mentioned is over rated on the road.. now Lewis had a 3.43 ERA on the road and he faced probably the easiest road starts with 6 vs. the Mariners and A's he faced just 3 top 11 OPS teams vs. RHP and he had a 7.90 ERA in those games. I think the Cardinals are primed to get him out of the game early now having already seen him as he pitched 6.2 IP 6 base runners and 1 ER in game #2. I don't think he'll have the same experience. Cardinals are 35-28 in their last 57 inter league games vs. a rh starter and 16-5 in their last 21 overall games vs. a rH starter at home. They score more than a run more at home vs. RHP than they do vs. LHP and they have a .766 OPS this post season vs. RHP.

Rangers -177 (4.5*MLB POD); Over 9.5 2.2* play I tried to find reasons to take the Cards given these odds I just could not do it. Even Josh Hamilton struggling big time and not being 100% healthy could not move me in that direction. Kyle Lohse has never pitched well in Arlington over his last 4 starts he has a 9.47 ERA and the reason is he's a fly ball pitcher. Despite his good road record this year I don't think he can pitch to win here tonight. On the other side Matt Harrison should give the Cardinals troubles as they have never seen him I think the Rangers can take advantage of that and win this game.

Cardinals +115 (4.5* MLB POD) We are on the dog again the wrong team is favored here. It's a bad break for the Rangers who just are starting the wrong pitcher in this game. I still think the Rangers will win this series so stay tuned for a series pick after this as the Rangers should be big dogs to come back from a 2-0 deficit. Today it's Jaime Garcia who the Rangers have never even seen. Rangers saw 3 pitchers this year for the first time on the road and they struggled. Garcia is a bigger name than all these three of Zach Britton, Dan Duffy, and Brad Mills who combined pitched 18 innings and have a 2.00 ERA. Garcia is a mess on the road but at home he is a stud for whatever reason. He's got a 9-4 record at home with a 2.55 ERA and during night starts he's also been successful with a 2.95 ERA. Rangers were 3rd in the league vs. LHP in OPS during the regular season, but this post season they have a .561 OPS in 77 AB with a .195 average. Garcia is backed by a solid bullpen as we saw last night and I think the Cardinals just have a huge advantage at home forcing the Rangers to bat a pitcher. Rangers have not played well on the road in interleague play at all and I don't trust their pitcher vs. a good team. Colby Lewis is 7-17 in his last 24 road gs vs. a winning team. Lewis road stats of an ERA 3.43 and a 9-5 record for 17 starts. So it looks on paper like the logical pitching choice since he had a 5.54 ERA at home, but wait a second let's break down the 17 starts because he's had a cake walk. Only 3 top 11 OPS teams vs. RHP has he faced on the road and the Cardinals are ranked 5th in OPS and #1 in the National League in OPS vs. RHP so these stats are relevant. IN those 3 starts he has just 13.1 IP and a 7.90 ERA. His other 14 road starts have been vs. opponents at the bottom of the league in hitting vs. RHP. The average rank is 23rd in OPS vs. RHP over those 14 starts due to facing the Mariners and A's on the road 6 times. The fact of the matter is his road starts are completely misleading. Right now the Cardinals are super hot with the bats .297 with 6.28 runs per 9 in their last 10 games vs. RHP and at home they score nearly 5 runs per 9 vs. RHP so they are a completely different team than they are against LHP where last night they got extremely lucky with their 2 hits that produced 3 RBI as they were both playable balls that should have been outs. Cardinals are 36-16 in their last 52 vs. RH starters and Garcia is 17-4 in his last 21 vs. a winning team 11-1 at home vs. a winning team. Cardinals go up 2-0 when they had back to Texas.

Rangers +111 (5* MLB POD) I mentioned it in the Cardinals/Brewers series that the Cardinals are just a different team vs. LHP at home especially. Though they're ranked 6th in OPS overall that does not nearly tell the story at home where they are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a LH starter including our win with Randy Wolf. They are scoring just 3.55 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home over a run difference compared to RHP. The main reason is they are ranked 19th in walks vs. LHP on the season. For some reason they are a little more anxious and that could play in big as Wilson weakness is walking hitters. I think he gets them to chase some bad pitches early. Next we look at Chris Carpenter who has a 3.11 ERA in the post season over his 12 GS. Carpenter's history is a little deceiving. A) he has had to go against National League hitters compared to Wilson vs. AL. Also Carpenter's numbers digress a bit as far as K/9 and BB/9 as he is only striking out 5.5/9 and walking nearly 3 guys per 9. He's been lucky with a .264 BABIP and 80.5% LOB in his post season career which suggests an xFIP at 4.06 a run higher than his actual stats. Next thing I look at is who he has faced this year and he's faced only 8 opponents who are in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP, Royals, Brewers, and the Diamondbacks. In those 8 starts he had just 2 quality starts both vs. the Brewers. Overall he has a 5.01 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. The Rangers will be the best hitting team he will face faced as far as hitting vs. RHP as they are #2 in OPS with a .798. Napoli and Young are familiar with Carpenter as they are combined 5-9 with a HR and 4 RBI. Look for the Rangers to continue their hot hitting vs. RHP which has resulted in a .271 average 6.33 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Lastly I also like the Rangers bullpen that has been more impressive down the stretch and plays in a better league. Overall the numbers look similar but the Rangers acquisitions have helped them become a dominant bullpen with Feliz on the back end.

Brewers -124 (4.5* MLB POD) The Brewers got here by winning at home they had a major league best 57 wins and they are 49-14 in their last 63 as a home favorite, 20-6 in their last 26 Sunday games overall. The pitching match up really should be the bullpens since they have pitched more than the starters and it's been the Cardinals with that edge, but the Brewers had a 1.17 ERA out of their bullpen in September and the Cardinals have pitched a lot out of their bullpen and the Brewers hitters are starting to have more of an idea at the plate. Now let's break down the starters. Marcum has struggled big time, but he's a veteran that still has 3 of 5 quality starts vs. the Cardinals this year. He's dominated Berkman, Furcal, Pujols, Freese and Theriot who are a combined 5 for 48. That's more than half the line up the team collectively have a .227 avg and a .551 OPS. Jackson meanwhile has not enjoyed the same success as the Brewers have 122 AB .295 average and a .870 OPS. His 3 starts at Milwaukee have not been good 11 ER 18.1 IP, 27 hits and 2 walks, he's given up a .301 average to opponents in his road starts this year where he has a 4.76 ERA that's nearly 2 runs higher than his ERA at home. Brewers will force the game 7 they are 37-14 in their last 51 vs. a starter with a WHIP over 1.30.

Rangers -155 (4.5* MLB POD)
I think the Rangers get it done tonight. To me this pitching match up is about the same, but the Tigers have limited at bats vs. Holland and have shown a tendency to struggle vs LHP on the road. Holland takes the ball and although he struggled in the first match up I think he'll rebound tonight and Rangers who are 20-7 in their last 27 following an off day will get the win. The bullpen is going to decide this game and the edge is definitely on the Rangers side as they have an ERA under 2 while the Tigers bullpen has an ERA over 5 in this series. Look for Nelson Cruz to continue to carry the Rangers to the World Series.

Cardinals -121 (4.5* MLB POD)
As I mentioned in our Brewers pick last night. The Cardinals are a completely different team at home v.s RHP than LHP and we saw it as Randy Wolf dominated. Tonight they get to face a righty in Zack Greinke who also is pitching much poorly on the road than at home as he has a 4.70 ERA with a losing record on the road that's 1.57 higher than his home ERA. Cardinals have plenty of success too including Holliday 5-12 2HR, Berkman 3-9 HR, PUjols 5-18, Jay 3-9 etc. Jaime Garcia is also dominant at home with a 2.63 ERA this year and 4.61 on the road. Luckily he pitches at home in game #5. He's struggled vs. the Brewers in the past but those are all on the road. He's had better success against the big hitters than Greinke has with the Cardinals, as he has held Braun and Fielder to 11-43 with just 1 HR. In his 4 home starts vs. the Brewers he's gone 28 innings allowed just 2 ER good for a 0.64 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Brewers just .235 average and 3.91 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road this year and they are 1-5 in their last 6 as a dog while the Cardinals are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. a RH starter 13-3 at home and 10-1 in Garcia's last 11 home starts vs. a winning team.

Brewers +126 (3* Dog of the Day) I look for the Brewers to even this series up. Randy Wolf has struggled of late but he's had a lot of success vs. the CArdinals and their hitters. IN his last two starts at Busch Stadium he's been dominant 16 IP 9 hits and 2 ER in 2011. In 2010 he had similar starts at Busch Stadium to end the year going 14.2 IP giving up 7 hits and 2 ER. Brewers are 37-15 in their last 52 vs. a RH starter and Kyle Lohse just does not scare me. What I'm more confident in is this.. Holliday, Furcal, and Berkman are a combined 23-120 or a .192 average that's 3 of the Cardinals 1st 5 in the line up. Nobody, including Pujols has dominant numbers vs. Wolf and I think that will allow Wolf to pick and choose who he pitches to. Cardinals just do not hit lefties at home as well as right handed pitching. They are scoring more than a full run less per 9 vs. LHP at home just 3.59 with a .251 average and are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a LH starter.

Tigers -155 (4.5* MLB POD) Tigers are good and should have won that game if Miguel Cabrera was not so fat. I never have liked the idea of putting a closer in a non closer role. The game is mental and Valverde could not handle that situation. Looking at his numbers during the season he has an ERA over 5 when he's in a non closer role. He got through the 1st inning but putting him out for the 2nd was a mistake and cost the Tigers the game. Fortunately this is a resillient bunch and Jim Leyland is Mr. Cool and they are 35-16 in their last 51 following a loss and nowt hey have their ace on the mound who has a 1.78 ERA and a 8-1 record during day starts. IN fact Verlander has never been comfortable this post season he's had two rain outs which impacted his one start and I think finnally getting into a regular rhythm and rest will prove to be a huge factor today. CJ Wilson's road records indicate he's an elite pitcher on the road with a 2.31 ERA. A closer look and he has 6 road starts that's 33% of his road starts vs. the Mariners (ranked 30th in OPS vs. LHP) and the A's (ranked 28th). Taking his numbers against the top 10 teams he's just a slightly above average pitcher on the road. Actually the Rangers are just 6-13 in their last 19 road games vs. a winning team with Wilson on the mound. Tigers facing another lefty back to back is an advantage when you can see the same angles. They are 51-25 in their last 76 home games vs. a LH starter.

Cardinals -149 (4* MLB Late Night Fix) Love the Cards tonight. It seems ironic that the Brewers are backing away from their comments now about Chris Carpenter as both Greinke and Nyjer Morgan have "no comment." To me that's a scared team and they should be the way Carpenter has pitched against them. In his two home starts vs. the Brewers this year he gave up 2 ER in 17 IP. His career post season numbers are great 6-2 with a 2.94 ERA and he just out dueled Roy Halladay. He has much better numbers vs. Brewers hitters compared to Gallardo who has a 4.05 ERA on the road and in his 4 starts this year vs. the Cardinals gave up 8 HR in just 23.2 IP as well as 15 ER and 30 base runners. A scorching red hot Albert Pujols who went 4-5 in the last game is 12-27 with 4HR and a 1.441 OPS vs. Gallardo. Brewers are 4-18 with Gallardo on the mound as a dog and they are 11-23 in their last 34 road games as a dog. Cardinals are just a better more consistent hitting team and they hit righties significantly better especially at home and they are 22-7 in their last 29 vs. RH starter. Cardinals win and take the 2-1 edge.

Tigers +113 (4.5* MLB POD) I think we have some great value here today with the Tigers. In our max winner yesterday we mentioned the Rangers struggles to hit on the road vs. what they do at home and now they play a day game where they just did not perform as well as they did during night games. In fact they were just 4 games over .500 during day games while the Tigers were 15. Tigers send Rick Porcello who has not been that great at home this year, but again he's had success vs. the big hitters from Texas, Beltre, Cruz, and Hamilton are a combined 2-15. As a team they have less at bats vs. Porcello than what the Tigers have vs. Harrison (who we will get to in a minute) and I'm much more confident in a home team that has a bullpen advantage at home. Much like Max Scherzer, Porcello's strength is HR's allowed and he gives up less than 1 per 9 innings. He's given up just 1 HR to the Rangers in 51 AB so I think that will benefit him on Wednesday. More importantly in this match up is Matt Harrison who has struggled big time in his career vs. the Tigers as he's 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA in 5 career starts, 0-3 at Comerica with a 7.03 ERA. That's an extremely high ERA for a pitcher on the road in a pitchers park like Comerica. Lewis had similar struggles here and I think the same is said for Harrisson who the Tigers have really hit hard. Cabrera, Avilla, Inge, Jackson, Raburn are a combined 22 for 48 with 4 HR. I look for Inge to definitely get the start since he's been so successful vs. Harrison and hits lefties better. The Tigers actually hit lefties better at home than they do righties which is important to note as they score 0.53 more runs vs. LHP at home than against RHP. They are already +1.36 runs per 9 at home compared with the Rangers on the road so I see it as a pretty good edge. Lastly Harrisson has a 2.99 ERA on the road and that's what's pushing this line this way as most bettors are looking at Porcello's struggles at home and Harrisson's success on the road, but a closer look and he has just 4 Top 10 opponents ranked in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP of his 15 road starts and the other 11 are a combined average rank of 23. So he's had an easy road here while Porcello has 14 home starts, smaller sample size and he's faced 5 Top 10 teams at home and his other 9 starts are an average 21st. He's had some really bad starts here that have really inflated his record while Harrisson struggled vs. the top 10 teams including the Tigers 6 IP 4 ER last time here. Tigers are 48-20 in their last 68 home vs. a winning team, and 51-24 in their last 75 home games vs. LH starter. They are also 17-4 at home vs. the Rangers

Tigers -132 (5.5* MLB POD) Colby Lewis has very good stats on the road this year so you'd wonder why I have such a large play on this game. Well looking at his game log I realized something and also remembered what division he pitches in. For one he pitches in the NL West the bulk of his road starts are facing the Angels, A's, and Mariners who have a league ranking in OPS vs. RHP ranked 19th, 24th, and 29th. his 3.43 ERA on the road is not nearly as good as it appears. He had just 2 road starts vs. an opponent over 17 road starts this year inside the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP. Those three were the Red Sox, and Tigers, and he combines for 7.1 IP and 8 ER so it's clear to me if he's facing a winning team on the road he struggles and that's exactly the truth as the Rangers are just 7-16 in his last 23 road starts vs. a winning team. He had a very easy road to this point and he has not pitched well vs. the Tigers on the road. In his last two starts in Texas he has just 11 IP, 2.18 WHIP and a 6.55 ERA. In his 5 career starts vs. the Tigers he's got a 7.76 ERA in 2 years. The main 8 guys who will be in the line up on Tuesday Jackson/Young/Santiago/Raburn/Peralta/Cabrera/Martinez/Avilla are a combined 31-82 with a .378 average vs. Lewis. Collectively the Tigers have 150 AB a .340 average and .901 OPS vs. Lewis and the Tigers are a very good home hitting team especially vs. RHP. They've had to face lefties in both games in this series facing a lefty makes it that much harder to pitch around Cabrera as Victor Martinez is much better vs. RHP .337 average on the year he's 5-11 vs. Lewis and was the best regular season hitter with RISP a stat they have struggled in the last couple games leaving 22 hitters on base. one would think the Rangers could just out score the Tigers again right? Well the Rangers are a completely different team on the road. They have the #1 OPS at home with a .860 but on the road just .740 which is still pretty good, but makes them far less dangerous. Add in the fact that they'll have to face Doug Fister and I'm confident the Tigers get the win. Fister had a 2.99 ERA at home this year and in his lone start vs. Texas with the Tigers at home he had 7 IP 8 hits and 2 ER. 3 of his 6 career starts have been dominant starts. Fister is a very bad match up for the Rangers who love to hit the long ball he's given up just .46 HR/9 ranked 4th in the league and he's only given up 1 HR in his home starts in Detroit. Fister also has 8 straight starts of 1 ER or less and the Rangers are a combined .268 wit a .679 OPS not nearly the success that the Tigers have against Lewis. Tigers will be happy to face the righty they are 35-16in their last 51 vs. RH starter and 40-15 in their last 55 as favorites. Last few points here for your and my confidence.. Lewis has gotten by and has been a bit lucky in my opinion because he's faced terrible hitting teams on the road for the majority. His BABIP is .262 well below the league average and it's considered lucky. He faces the Tigers who have a .318 BABIP and since Lewis is not a strike out pitcher this could be a bad mix for Lewis against a team that already has success. The Rangers bullpen has been great but they pitched 8 1/3 innings tonight when their starter could not get past the 3rd inning this is a huge advantage for the Tigers moving forward because it's been a strength that can now turn into a weakness for the Rangers.

Cardinals +128 (4* MLB POD) We go with the resilient Cardinals to tie this heated rivalry game up. I just think the Cardinals match up very well with the Brewers and this is going to be a back and forth series. I'll go with who I think is the better pitcher for this match up on Monday and that would be Edwin Jackson who.. Is 4-0 with a 2.91 ERA during night games since coming to the Cardinals and he has been solid on the road while Marcum has not been good at home which we will get to in a minute. Jackson had one terrible start @ Milwaukee but at the end of August he bounced back at Milwakuee to throw a dominant start actually he had two starts in August where he gave his team a chance to win giving up 3 ER in 13 IP. Now to the reason why I like him in this match up. Well first of all Brewers win by the long ball especially at home, and they are 18th in average vs. RHP on the year yet they are #2 in the national league in HR vs. RHP. Edwin Jackson just does not give up many HR and he's held Braun/Fielder to 5-25 with 0 HR in his career. Jackson only 0.72 HR/9 this year which is good for Top 25 in baseball. Jackson also is the hotter pitcher down the stretch posting a QS in 9 of his last 10 starts going 8-2 while Marcum.. Has been awful in his last 5 starts he's given up 25 ER over 29 innings pitched while giving up 39 hits and 8 walks. He's held the good hitters on the Cardinals in check, but again he's pitching with little confidence eon a mound he has little confidence on as he posted a 4.81 ERA at home and even looking further into the numbers he's actually pitched better during day games where Jackson has pitched better at night games. Cardinals have the advantage there as well vs. RHP they have a .765 OPS Brewers .755, and at night the Cardinals are also better hitters .796 OPS and Milwaukee .751. Basically in this match up the Brewers have two advantages home field and the bullpen. I still think the Cardinals bullpen is solid, and though the Brewers have been great at home they have not been great at home when Marcum pitches and Marcum has shown he does not pitch well vs. good teams just 2-8 in his last 10 vs. a winning team while the Cardinals are 11-4 in their last 15 as a road dog and 21-7 in their last 28 vs. a RH starter.

Tigers +100 (4.5* MLB POD) I love the Tigers here as they got their ace on the mound who is 14-2 on the road this year with a 2.48 ERA and in 3 career starts in Texas he has26K's to 4 walks and a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. The Rangers starting line up has just a .224 average vs. him in 138 AB. He's dominated this team and it's no coincidence that the Tigers are 6-1 in his 7 starts vs. the Rangers. They are also 50-22 in his last 72 overall starts and 21-6 in their last 27 vs. a winning team while the Rangers go with their ace CJ Wilson. I don't have as much confidence in Wilson despite having good numbers with the starting line up vs. the Tigers that was mostly in relief. His one start he allowed 4 ER in 6.2 IP while allowing 10 batters to reach base. Wilson also mentioned he struggled in his first start vs. Tampa because he had extra time off and now he's 2-6 in his last 8 with 7 or more days of rest which he'll be on here today. I expect him to struggle against a Tigers line up that's hitting .287 with 6.65 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 games and they are 5th overall with a .783 OPS vs. LHP and have a .281 average on the season. Many think the Rangers have the bullpen advantage but the Tigers have a 3.90 ERA out of bullpen on the road while the Tigers post a 4.57 at home partially due to it being a hitters park, but the Tigers have Valverde closing games and he has not blown a save all year long.

Brewers -150 (4.5* MLB POD) Brewers were one of the best home teams and this year is game is no different. I expect them to bounce back from losing two straight in great fashion behind Yovani Gallardo who in 6 career starts vs. the Dbacks has a 1.18 ERA including a 1.28 ERA in 3 starts this year. Milwaukee is 37-14 in their last 51 games vs. RH starter and they are 49-18 in their last 67 home games. Kennedy's two starts at Milwaukee he's given up 8 ER 17 base runners in 12.2 IP in two road starts this year. Expect the Brewers in front of a crazy crowd to get the W on Friday.

Yankees -157 (5.5* MLB POD) Well the Yankees really put themselves in a great spot. I put money down before Game #3 on the Tigers to win the series and I felt good with AJ on the mound yesterday, but then the Curtis Granderson catch changed the entire out come of this series. Yankees have CC available in the bullpen and a fresh Mariano to get 6 outs and I don't think there is a way for the Yankees to lose this game with Ivan Nova on the mound. Nova has been great 8-2 at home and 14-4 with a 3.61 ERA during night starts. He does not seem phased by this kind of spot light and reminds me a lot of Orlando Hernandez. Fister is on the other side and very quietly has been great since coming over from Seattle, but there is a catch. He's struggled vs. the Yankees, Teixera is 3-9 Jeter 4-10, Cano 2-6, Granderson 1-3 with a HR and even Alex Rodriguez showed signs last game of turning it around. collectively the Yankees have 70 AB much more experience than the Tigers have vs. Nova with just 24 AB. Gardner 5-13 and Cano has 8 RBI we mentioned Jeter's success in the series as well. While the Tigers seem to be falling as Austin Jackson is 1-10 in the lead off Avila is 0-12 and Betemit is 0-8 and Miguel Cabrera 0-5 in the last 2 games. A closer look at Fister and of his 17 road starts he's really only had 4 starts against quality opponents. Pitching in the West and the Central really benefits a pitcher while Nova has had a much more challenging road to get to where he is. IN those 4 starts on the road at Boston, Detroit, Toronto and New York he has struggled with the exception of an early start in Boston. He did not pitch well in game #1 in relief allowing 9 base runners in 4.2 IP and giving up 6 ER. At home the Yankees are scoring 1.58 more runs per 9 vs. RHP than the Tigers are vs. RHP and their bullpen is 1 run better at home than the Tigers on the road. Yankees have the strength in the bullpen and the Tigers are 10-21 in their last 31 following an off day. Yankees are also 38-16 in their last 54 vs. the Tigers at home.

Dbacks -105 (4* MLB POD); Over 8.5 2* play On paper it looks like a pretty even match up pitching wise, but a futher look in at these two south paws who both have career post season ERA's over 5.00 is that the line up that faces Wolf has more experience and more success than the Brewers do against Joe Saunders. Add in that the Dbacks are home and I'm confident they even up this series tonight. Dbacks projected line up is 29-87 with 5 HR that's .333 average while the line up for MIlwaukee has a .260 average vs. Saunders led by Braun who has 2 HR. Fielder is 0-5. Also people seem to forget just how bad the Brewers were on the road with a .233 average and 3.83 runs per 9 vs. LHP and the Dbacks are +1.20 runs overall 1.05 vs. LHP. Brewers are 11-23 in their last 34 as a road dog while the Dbacks are 48-22 in their last 70 as a home favorite

PHI/STL U7 (4.5* MLB POD); Cardinals +129 (2.5* play) This game absolutely screams pitching for one I like the under as the first half of the game is going to be played in the shadows with the hitters having a very difficult time picking up pitches. Next you look at these two pitchers and both have been great. Jaime Garcia was great down the stretch 2.64 ERA in SEptember and his 15 starts at home he has a 2.55 ERA where he was just a different more confident pitcher. He has the success against the Phillies he's 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA holding them to a .178 average in those games. Victorino, Utley, Rollins, Pence, Polanco, Howard combined are just 10-64. Phillies are just a different team vs. LHP they were 21st w/ .701 OPS vs. LHP this year while the Cardinals were ranked 6th with a .768 OPS so that's one reason why I like the Cardinals in this game though I think it will be low scoring because.. Cole Hamels has been the man for this rotation especially on the road where half of his wins come. He won't have to face Matt Holliday and that has to help the under as he can work around Lance Berkman who is 7-21 vs. him. Though Hamels had a 2.93 ERA on the road this year he gave up 9 HR in September and he had only 3 the other months which is a little red flag, but he has not given up HR to this Cardinals team in his career and Cardinals at home vs LHP are not as good as they are on the road .254 3.74 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Phillies on road .243 3.98 runs per vs. LHP. Jerry Layne is behind the plate and that means strikes. Layne is under 10-3 in his last 13 behind home plate with the Phillies U16-13 in games this year and the CArdinals are 6-0 with Layne behind home plate in his last 3 games. The two starters are under 3-0 in their 3 starts with Layne behind home plate. Phillies are under 40-17-4 in Hamels last 61 starts.

Rays -106 (4* MLB Early Bird Special ) Game #4 it's do or die for the Rays and I think they bounce back against Texas. I love the pitching match up too and we will get into that in a minute. One thing is sure the Rangers are not the same team they are during day games as they are at night. Day games the Rangers OPS drops .94 points while the Rays play better during the day +.14 and are 34-24 this year while the Rangers are 26-22 during day games this year. Also we have already seen down the stretch and in this years playoffs that the Rays struggle vs. RHP and they are a better team vs. LHP. The stats are there on the season and of late. Longoria and Upton the leaders of this team are just way more dangerous vs. a LHP and today they get Matt Harrison and Longoria and UPton are 4-5 with a HR and Damon is 5-10 vs. Harrison so they have a lot of success with the bats. The Rays are hitting .286 vs. LHP in the last 10 games with 7.09 runs per 9 vs. LHP and they have proven in both of the last games they can make a come back and that they can get hits off the Rangers bullpen. Rangers just do not hit as well on the road .268 4.38 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Jeremy Hellickson makes the start and he was solid down the stretch he had a 2.54 ERA at home in 14 starts this year and a 2.71 ERA during 11 day starts. Matt Harrison was good on the road and away, but I like the fact that the Rays have hit him before in limited appearances of course, but he's making his first start on turf this year. In 3 years he only has 1 start on turf and 3 appearances he's got an ERA over 7 giving up 6 ER 13 hits in 7.2 IP.

Tigers -122 (4.5* MLB POD) We had the Tigers yesterday and now that this pitching match up shifts to Detroit it jumped a total of 40 points on the line and I"m backing the Tigers because of CC's struggles @ Detroit where he has 3 starts the last 3 years and he's given up 14 ER in 21 IP for a 6.00 ERA. Tigers at home hit lefties hard .280 with 5.73 runs per 9 this year and they are 50-24 in their last 74 vs. a LH starter. Cabrera will be licking his chops as he's 9-16 vs. Sabathia with 2 HR that should open things up for others in the line up who will see pitches so Sabathia can avoid Cabrera. Verlander on the other hand has an easier task in my opinion especially now that they are at home. Arod is a huge liability in that line up and they are going to stick with him he's 0-8 in the series and 4-18 vs. Verlander. Yankees have hit just .204 vs. RHP over their last 10 games and have a 4.84 bullpen ERA. We saw their offense struggles vs. a righty yesterday and it continues against the AL Cy Young winner who is 22-6 in his last 28 home games vs. a winning team.

Rangers +121 (3* PLAY) David Price has not had the year of an ace. He's struggled big time over the last month and now he has to go up against the Rangers who had the highest OPS in September and their bats woke up against a pitcher they were familiar with in James Shields. Game 1 is a distant memory for me I had the under I knew Matt Moore would give the Rangers problems, but now the series is even and comes down to three games. Rangers have an edge here as Price has not pitched particularly well in big games. Actually the Rays have not hit here either scoring just 3.79 runs per 9 vs RHP here with a .234 average. Colby Lewis has dominated them in an earlier start this year 4 hits in 8 IP 0 ER. Texas over their last 10 has a .277 average 6.56 runs per 9 and a 2.95 BULLPEN ERA. TB just does not hit righties as well and I think this is one of the few games where the Rangers have the pitching edge.

Brewers -160 (5* MLB POD) Love the Brewers they have every advantage in this match up. Greinke is a perfect 15-0 at home this year and they are 20-3 in his last 23 as a favorite and 21-6 in his last 27 gs overall. Home team is 41-17 in umpire Alfonso Marques last 58 Sunday's behind the plate and the Dbacks are 1-7 in their last 8 games with him back there. Milwaukee 41 AB vs. Hudson and they have a .317 average and .919 OPS. Dbacks are 13-40 in their last 53 as a road dog +151-+200. Hudson struggled downt he stretch his last 2 starts vs. the Dodgers and Pirates. He faces a Brewers team that hit 4 HR off him in two starts both in MIlwaukee where this game is too. Brewers also have a better bullpen if it gets to that so I expect them to win game 2 as well.

Tigers +141 (3* Dog of the Day) Love the Tigers Max Scherzer has actually pitched well with the exception of giving up HR's in one start he has been dominant. Overall the Yankees have a .202 average and .623 OPS vs. Scherzer that includes Cano who is 1-8. On the other side Fredd Garcia struggled giving up 10 hits 4 ER vs. the Tigers. He also struggled down the stretch over his last 4 starts he gave up 27 hits in 18.1 IP which worked out to a 1.85 WHIP with his walks and 7.36 ERA. Tigers can hit as we have seen and they are hitting .309 with 6.32 runs per 9 vs RHP in their last 10 games. Yankees .210 average last 10 vs. RHP. Cabrera is 9-23 with 3 HR vs. Garcia, Magglio hitting .320 in 50 ab, and Young and Martinez have 4 HR in 40AB combined. Tigers are 19-7 in their last 26 road games vs. RH starter.

Rays +112 (4.5* MLB POD) Rays dominated game 1 and we had the under which we would have won if it werent for an error in the 8th, but we move on to Saturday and we are backing this hot team. The Rays just seem to be a better team and they have a pitching advantage. Remember that Texas plays in a hitters park so their offense to me is not as good as it looks on paper. Rays also have to go up against the Red Sox and Yankees in fact Shields who takes the mound has faced the 3 best offenses in the AL in Boston, New York and Texas two times a piece in his last 6 starts and he's come out with a 2.23 ERA. Vs. the Rays he has gone 17 innings given up 8 hits and 1 ER. Overall the Rangers just don't hit him the starting line up combined are 24-129 for a .186 average. Derek Holland on the other hand takes the mound vs. the Rays. That's the 2nd start in a row vs. a lefty and the Rays line up just hits lefties better they are in the top 10 in OPS vs. LHP with a .749 this season. In their last 10 games they are hitting .278 with 6.81 runs per 9 and 2.90 bullpen ERA

Rangers -149 (5.5* MLB POD) Rangers have their full line up in and the Angels have 5 hitters that have never faced Matt Harrisson in and the 4 hitters that have faced Harrisson are a combined 6-43 so I expect the Rangers who would much rather win clinch home field in the first round and face the Red Sox or Rays for sure. If they lose and the Tigers win then they will have to face the Yankees at Yankee Stadium which is something no team wishes upon themselves. This team has been hitting too .333 average over their last 5 with 7.31 runs per 9 while the Angels are hitting .195 over their last 5. Texas bullpen 2.48 ERA over their last 10 compared to the Angels 4.76. Angels were alive a week ago but now obviously not into it and with all the young players going up against a Rangers team that is motivated to secure the home field advantage in the first round as they are 53-29 at home and they are 13-2 run right now scoring 6.3 runs per game.

Phillies +179 (3* play)

Tigers -175 3.5* play

Phillies -105 (3* play) Phillies are clearly trying to carry some momentum over into the post season and I think it's a good idea. With their starters back in the line up today against the Braves who are about to blow their lead to the Cardinals. Derek Lowe takes the mound and and Pence, Polanco, and Pence are a combined 28-65 vs. Lowe who has a 5.22 ERA at home and a 7.98 ERA in his last 3 starts with a 1.98 WHIP. Oswalt who wants to carry some quality pitching into the post season has a 1.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in his last 3 starts vs. the Braves who are desperate right now. Roy Oswalt is 9-3 in his last 15 starts in September with a 2.20 ERA.

Orioles +150 (4* MLB POD) Red Sox are pressing right now and Buck Schowalter has this team motivated to finish strong as he did a year ago. Orioles are hitting 6 runs per 9 in their last 10 vs. LHP which they face tonight in long time ex Oriole Eric Bedard. 3-4,5,6 have a combined 16-42 .381 average and 2HR vs. Bedard and I think this is their world series they are getting pride in knocking a division rival out of the playoffs. On the other side Zach Britton has been solid at home with a 2.71 ERA at home and he is coming off a start with just 78 pitches. Britton has had good starts of late against good teams including the Angels and Yankees at home going 14 IP combined and giving up just 1 ER so I am sure he's excited to continue his quality pitching at home here tonight. Boston hitting just .237 with 0.87 runs per 9 vs. LHP. While the Orioles are hitting .370 and 7.11 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP.

Phillies -139 (4.5* MLB POD) Going with the Phillies here today. They ended their streak of losses yesterday and ironically it was because their full line up was on the field. Well today they keep that momentum with one of their aces on the mound and their full best line up on the field. Braves have really struggled and they are just 1 game up on the Cardinals feeling the pressure. I expect the Phillies to win this game as they'd much rather face the Cardinals any how, but they also want to get a good vibe going into the playoffs. Cliff Lee goes for the Phillies and as we know the Braves struggle vs. LHP as they are 29th with a .644 OPS this year vs. LHP. IN his last 3 starts vs. the Braves he has 24 IP with a 1.50 ERA and a .83 WHIP with 31K's. The braves are scoring just 1.88 runs per 9 over their last 10. I think Lee wants to feel good about an outing going into the post season. With that said he's also 20-4 in his last 24 vs. a winning team and the Phillies are 22-8 in their last 30 as a road favorite. Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 game 1 of a series and 0-6 in their last 6 as a dog. Delgado has pitched well for the Braves, but he has struggled with control which does not bode will vs. the Phillies he's got 10 walks in his last 20 IP and he's faced some weak hitting teams so I don't think he can turn a QS on this kind of pressure.

Astros -118 (4.5* MLB POD) Rockies would obviously like to be somewhere else and they have shut down their 3 stars for the rest of the year in Tulo, Cargo, and Helton. JA Happ looks to build on his success since returning from AAA where he has a 2.40 ERA in 5 starts. He's had good starts vs. some of the NL's best including the Phillies and the Reds who are the best hitting team vs. LHP in OPS in the NL and now he gets to face a Rockies team that doesn't have their three best hitters. Hammell starts vs. the Rockies an dhe's been unable to put two quality starts together he is coming off a quality start so we feel he'll digress here today. Hammel over the last 3 years has 74.2 IP in September and a 6.03 ERA so we feel he may be looking towards the off season while the Astros have a lot of young talent that is competing right now trying to make the team for 2012. They are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a losing team and the Rockies are 17-40 in their last 57 as a road dog and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. LH starter. Colorado is also 8-27 in their last 35 at Houston and have a .191 average vs. LHP in their last 10 games while only scoring 2.75 runs pe r9 while the Astros are scoring 5.65 runs per 9 over their last 5 games overall.

Angels -115 (4.5* MLB POD) Love the Angels here tonight with Santana on the mound as this team is still in the playoff race with just 2.5 games in back of the Red Sox who are off today. Santana has dominated the Jays over his last 6 starts he has a 2.25 ERA and I think he's going to bounce back this week. His last 2 starts vs. Toronto he's gone 9 and 8 innings and I think we can expect the same as the Jays have a collective .223 average vs. him. The biggest reason why I like the Angels is the Jays bullpen that has pitched 10 innings in the last 2 games will have to play a big role in tonight's game iwth the young Henderson Alverez who won't go deep in this game. Jays bullpen has an ERA as a 7.63 ERA in their last 10 games. Angels have been hitting well over their last 10 games .304 with 6.33 runs per 9 and they have a 1.57 bullpen era over that period they are 38-14 in their last 52 as a favorite while the Jays are 5-13 in their last 18 as a dog.

Royals +110 (4* MLB POD) Love the Royals today. They have been on fire winning 8 of 9 and the Tigers are resting guys right now. Paulino actually had a quality start vs. the Tigers this year when they were at full strength while Scherzer has a 5.33 ERA away and has given up 11 ER in just 8 innings pitched over his last 2 vs. the Royals and he's facing them at the wrong time as the Royals are on fire right now scoring more than 6 runs per 9 in their last 10 with an overall .340 average in their last 10 games while the Tigers vs. RHP are hitting .241 and 3.48 runs per 9. With Scherzer on the mound they are 3-9 in their last 12 as road fav -110 to -150 and they are 5-12 in their last 17 of his road starts vs. a losing team.

Indians -148 (3* play) Mark Buehrle has a 2.54 WHIP over his last 3 starts and in his last 3 vs. the Indians he has a 1.74 WHIP and a 7.10 ERA. 6 of the 9 hitters in the Indians line up are a combined 21-59 and there is plenty of talent int he line up to get runs of the south paw. Meanwhile Jiminez has been great at home with a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. All of his starts have come on the road vs. the White Sox and the Sox line up today is a combined 10-54 vs. Jimenez in their career. White Sox have struggled out of their bullpen too 6.32 ERA over their last 10 while the Indians are scoring 5.48 runs per 9 in their last 10 games and are 31-15 in their last 46 as a home favorite.

Rangers -135 (5* MLB POD) Harden vs. Holland repeat and the Rangers have all kinds of advantages here. Not only Is Oakland last 27th in the league with a .654 OPS vs. LHP, but they can't hit Derek Holland who has a 1.72 ERA in 5 career starts. Holland has 2 starts this year with 16 IP and just 2ER. Rich Harden can not say the same as in his two starts he gave up 9 ER in 9 IP to the Rangers and it could have been worse as 20 base runners reached base in just 9 innings of work. Over his career Kinsler/Hamilton/Moreland?Andrus have hit him hard 12-23. Adrian Beltre who is 2-16 is on a streak right now of 7 HR in 8 games that I think could play a factor here if they pitch to him since he's red hot .405 average over his last 9 games. Michael Young has also had success with a .390 OBP with over 30 at bats vs. Harden in his career. Texas over their last 10 games are hitting .313 vs. RHP while the A's are hitting .205 vs. LHP with just 3.05 runs per 9 while the Rangers are scoring 7.12 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Also the A's bullpen is not as strong as they have a 6.21 bullpen ERA over their last 10. A's are 1-8 in their last 9 as a home dog and 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a LH starter while the Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 in Oakland and have to win as the Angels are breathing down their back and have a series this weekend with them.

Brewers -148 (3* play)
Love the Brewers despite the Cubs ability to hit lefties this year. Case Coleman has been awful no matter when he pitches he's 0-4 at home with a 9.12 ERA and he has a 2.10 WHIP and a 7.52 ERA at night. He'll face a hot Braun/Hart/and Fielder who are a combined 15-37 vs. him and over their last 7 days the trio are 22-54. He's facing them at the wrong time.

Jays -137 (4.5* MLB POD)
Love the Jays behind Ricky Romero who is 8-3 with a 3.01 ERA at home this year and 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA during night starts. Angels line up are a combined 16-67 in their career vs. Romero for a .238 average with just 3 guys having success the rest of the line up is 2-25. Angels are 12-26 in their last 38 road games vs. a LH starter while the Jays are 21-5 in their last 26 when Romero starts and he faces a team that scored 5+ runs in previous game. The Jays are scoring roughlty 6 runs per game vs RHP and they face off against Jerome Williams who I'm just not buying he had two road starts against the A's and Mariners two of the worst hitting teams and he gave up 14 hits and 7 BB in just 11.1 IP that's a WHIP well over 2 and an ERA of 5.56.

Red Sox -136 (4.5* MLB POD) The Sox are starting to feel the pressure and Josh Beckett takes the mound that usually is not a good thing for opponents and I'm backing him here over his last 3 starts vs. the Rays he's gone 24 IP and has absolutely dominated this team giving up just 6 hits and 1 BB and 0 ER. Upton and Zobrist are a combined 7-44 and the Rays overall 194 AB have a .211 average and .587 OPS. While the Sox have had some success vs. Shields who is not as good on the road and is off back to back 120+ outings including one dominant home start vs. the Red Sox in his last start. Ortiz,Pedroia, and Gonzalez are a combined 31-100 with 6 HR that's the 3,4, 5 int he line up which should mean good things for the Sox Friday night at home where they are 70-33 in their last 103 mettings with the Rays. Shields has never bene as good on the road 3.11 ERA this year is his best it's still almost a run from what he's done at home over the last 3 previous years he's had a 5.10 on the road and a 5.16 ERA in September. Rays are 7-15 in his last 22 starts vs. the Red Sox and his last 5 starts at Fenway he has a 5.68 ERA. Look for Beckett to control this game he's 10-1 when an opponent scores 5 or more runs in previous game so I'm not worried about how hot the Rays have been

Cubs -160 3* Early Bird Special Wandy Rodriguez has never been as good on the road and now he faces a Cubs team that can hit lefties in fact Baker/Ramirez/Soto/Barnie are a combined 30-83 with a .361 average vs. Rodriguez. Houston is 27th with a .664 OPS during day games and Matt Garza is not the type of pitcher you want to face early. Carlos Lee the lone challenge in Houston's line up is 2-9 vs. Garza. Garza has a 2.64 ERA at home this year and a 3.00 ERA during day starts this year. Astros have 27 AB with a .148 average vs. him and the Astros over their last 10 games are hitting .208 with a1.92 runs per 9.

Cubs+141 (4* MLB POD) I like the Cubs as today's best bet as Randy Wells is flying under the radar big time. He's been great of late going 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA and the Cubs are 6-0 in his last 6 overall starts. In fact he has a 3.60 ERA during his night starts this year and over the last 3 years he's had 28 night starts and has posted a 2.99 ERA. He gave up 6 ER in 7 innings in his home start in early August and that could be another reason for this line, but his previous 7 starts vs. the Cubs he was 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Homer Bailey on the other hand has not been as lucky vs. the Cubs as they have a combined average of .309 and .916 OPS with 4 HR in 59 at bats. Over his last 3 he has a 1.87 WHIP and a 7.80 ERA. Cubs are hitting right now scoring +0.97 runs per 9 overall more than the Reds over the last 10 games and they have a better bullpen ERA too. Reds bullpen is a weakness of this team all year and will likely play an impact tonight as they have a 4.91 ERA over their last 5 games.

Royals -150 (4* MLB POD) The Twins are just beyond bad right now and I like the way Luke Hochevar has been pitching with a 3.32 ERA over his last 3 including a 1.06 WHIP and a 2.11 ERA over his last 3 home starts vs. some pretty good hitting teams in the Indians, Red Sox and Orioles and now he faces an injured Twins team that is 28th in the league vs. RHP in OPS and 23rd during day games. While the Royals are 9th during day games with a .743 OPS. Twins are 22-31 during day games this year and have a .171 overall average over their last 10 games while scoring just 2.02 runs per 9 and I just don't see that ending here against Hochevar who is 5-1 in his last 6 when favored. Twins are 6-22 in their last 28 vs. RH starter. Last time out he went 7 innings gave up just 3 hits and 1 ER vs. the Twins.

Cardinals -145 (3.5* Early Bird Special)
Cardinals are on a role and Edwin Jackson has a 2-0 record and 2.08 ERA over his last 4 starts.

Mariners +147 (3* MLB Dog of the Day) Yankees always seem to struggle vs. pitchers they have not seen before. Furbush has been solid in his home starts this year as most pitchers are in Seattle and he goes up against Aj Burnett who should no longer be a favorite. If you faded him in every start this year you would have made a lot of money. Burnett had a rough time his last start vs. SEA was on the road 5 IP 4 hits 5 walks and escaped with just 2 ER luckily. His previous start he gave up 12 hits 6 ER. The Mariners have 78 AB .333 average and .832 OPS vs. Burnett. Yankees last 5 have a .122 average vs. LHP and are 5-16 in Burnett's last 21 road starts with a total 9-10.5 and are 2-9 in his last 11 on 5 days rest. Furbush faced Boston at home earlier this year went 7 IP gave up 4 hits and 1 ER so he has the ability to give the Yankees fits.

Marlins +179 (2* dog) Two young pitchers and the Braves are just among the worst in the majors vs. LHP and over their last 10 they are .238 average and 1.67 runs per 9 vs. LHP while the Marlins are .274 5.93. Last time the Marlins got to Minor 4 IP 9 hits 6 ER and they are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. LH starters.

Red Sox -138 (4.5* MLB POD) Red Sox are now in a battle for the Wild Card with the Rays and I expect them to come up big on Tuesday against a pitcher they have always dominated in Brandon Morrow. The odds are where they are because Wakefield is pitching and Morrow has been miles better on the road than home this year. However I'm looking strictly at the numbers and the Blue Jays have 128 AB vs. Wakefield and a .242 average .642 OPS while the Red Sox have 134 AB vs. Morrow a .321 and 1.009 OPS. That's a huge difference and when you add in that the Sox are at home here fighting for the playoffs now I expect Wakefield to come up with a clutch outing. Morrow's last 5 starts vs. the Sox he has a 14.43 ERA and a 2.48 WHIP I don't see how he could go into this match up with any kind of confidence. Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Pedroia, and Scutoro combined are 30-64 with 5 HR.

Cardinals -165 (3* play) Cardinals are quietly still in the mix they are the best team vs. RHP in the league and Carpenter usually rebounds from bad performances like he had last time out vs. the Pirates. Cardinals are still 14-3 in his last 17 vs. the Pirates, but now he comes on 5 days rest after a complete game vs. the Brewers to face a team that beat him up last time. I think he'll be motivated to throw a great game tongiht.

A's -138 (4.5* MLB POD) Gio Gonzalez makes a home start for the A's and that usually means good things especially when he's favored as he's 13-3 in his last 16 favored between -110 to -150. A's are 47-22 in their last 59 as favorites between that number, but looking at the match up I like this even more as he faces off against the Angels who in his last 3 home starts has dominated going 20 innings giving up 0 ER and just 9 hits. Joel Pineiro will oppose him and Pineiro has struggled in 3 starts vs. the A's this season he's given up 22 hits 6 walks in just 13.2 IP for a 9.22 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. In his last 6 road starts in Oakland dating back to 2006 he has a 10.29 ERA he has never liked pitching here for whatever reason. Overall in his last 4 road starts he's given up 18 ER in 15 innings and that includes a struggle with the AL's worst team the Mariners. Pineiro just is not a good road pitcher with an ERA approaching 6 this year on the road. To make matters worse the A's hit him hard as DeJesus, Matsui, Pennington, are 26-75 for an average of .375 vs. him. Overall the A's have 165 ab with a .303 average and .783 ops. Angels are just 1-5 in their last 6 and this misconception that the A's can't hit at home is over rated they are scoring 4.5 runs per 9 and they have a team ERA of 3.15 so they are very capable. They just do it the old fashioned way.

Cardinals -145 (4.5* MLB POD) The Braves face a lefty in Garcia and are last in the NL in OPS vs. LHP, while the Cardinals face a righty in Lowe who are #1 in the NL in OPS vs. RHP. Jaime Garcia has a 2.64 ERA at home this year and he's 14-2 in his last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Braves have a .224 average in 48 AB vs. Garcia as he posts a 2.08 ERA in 2 starts vs. them in 2 years. Braves struggles vs. LHP continue as they are scoring just 1.56 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 and on the road this year they have an OVERALL average of .198 scoring just 2.38 runs per 9 vs. LHP. The Cardinals meanwhile who rallied to win in 10 innings last night face a righty in Derek Lowe who they have beat up in the past. In fact Lowe's last 3 vs. the Cardinals have resulted in an 10.93 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Berkman, Furcal, Holliday, and PUjols are a combined 43-109 with 5 HR for a .394 average. While Lowe has great success in September we feel that's behind him with his age he showed in his last road start vs. a good hitting Phillies team that he could not get guys out. He'll need to be superb to give the Braves a shot and I think there is just too much talent in the other dug out. He's also on just 4 days rest where the Braves are 0-7 in his last 7 on 4 days and are 0-5 in their last 5 in St. Louis. Look for the Cardinals to win at home and continue their success vs. RHP.

Rockies -138 (5*MLB POD) Love the Rockies today because of the pitching match up as Chacin takes on Bailey and the Reds. The Rockies are 23-6 in their last 29 home games vs. the Reds. The Rockies are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a losing team and the Reds on the road vs. a winning home team which is what the Rockies are, are 20-42 in their last 62. Homer Bailey is 2-4 on the road with a 4.67 ERA while Chacin is 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA at home and a 3.02 at night. Bailey in 4 career starts vs. the Rockies has a 7.23 ERA and a 2.73 WHIP. While Chacin has 14 IP 4 ER in two starts vs. the Reds this year who are scoring almost a full run less on the road vs. RHP than LHP. In fact the active hitters for the Reds have 53 AB vs. Chacin and a .189 average and .498 OPS while the Rockies have 61 AB vs. Bailey for a .344 average and a .923 OPS. Tulo/Smith and Cargo combined are hitting .500 with 3 HR off Bailey. Rockies are hitting .277 and are scoring 6.09 runs per 9 at home vs. RHP while the Reds are under 4 runs per 9.per 9.

Cards -146 (3* play) Edwin Jackson still flies under the radar a bit as he has dominated at home with a 2.30 ERA since joining the Cardinals and a 2.01 ERA at night. Cardinals are the #1 team in the National League vs. RHP as far as OPS and they'll go up against Delagado who has looked good in two starts vs. subpar teams 28th and 24th vs. RHP in the league in LA/SF. Now he goes on the road to face the Cardinals. Delgado was not that impressive in the minors as he had an ERA just under 4 and walking nearly 4 runners per 9. Cardinals are 7th in walks in the league. Cards over the last 10 have a .284 average 5.12 runs per 9. They are also 42-20 in their last 62 Friday games whiel the Braves are just 3-8 in their last 11 meetings.

Brewers +123 (3* DOD) Closer look at this game and we see the struggles that Roy Halladay has had consistently over the Brewers. It's a big start for the Brewers since they'll likely have to go through PHilly one way or another to get to the World Series. Now losing two games in a row at home just hasn't happened for the Brewers and they are 40-12 in their last 52 vs. RH starters in their last 52 home. Marcum won't have to face Utley and he's been great at home this year. Halladay in his last 2 starts vs. the Brewers have given up 13.2 IP giving up 17 hits 10 ER and 5 HR. Fielder, Braun, Betancourt, and Hart are combined 16-35 with 4 HR off Halladay.

Dbacks -170 (4.5* MLB POD) Dbacks go with Ian Kennedy at home who has a 2.93 ERA and ARizona has a .341 average and 1.145 OPS vs. Corey Luebke who has pitched over his head all year long and he's entering new territory as he is not used to pitching this many innings at this point of the year. He's got a 6.57 ERA and he faces a red hot Dbacks team hitting .330 vs. LHP over their last 10 games and are a good home team vs. LHP. Padres are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings and Kennedy has dominated the Padres this year with a 2.07 ERA.

Phillies -121 (3* play) Phillies are the hotter team right now and I think they have clearly the better pitching here as Cole Hamels > Chris Narverson. Hamels in his career has an ERA under 2 over his last 5 vs. the Brewers and collectively they have a .215 average vs. Hamels over 121 at bats while the Phillies have a .838 OPS in 49 at bats vs. Narverson. Hamels also dominated at this point in the year as he's 10-5 over the last 3 years in September with a 2.76 ERA. Phillies are 30-11 in their last 41 vs. the NL Central and the Brewers are 7-19 in their last 26 as a home dog 3-7 in Narverson's last 10 as a dog.

Red Sox +121 (4* Dog of the Day) Love the Sox here as dogs as they continue to score runs and over their last 5 they are scoring 6.33 vs. LHP and they have dominated Ricky Romero who has an ERA of 10.62 in his 5 career home starts vs. the Red Sox. The Sox have a .355 average and a 1.034 OPS vs. Romero over their career and Andrew MIller will bounce back from a poor start as the Jays are scoring 3.49 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. He's 5-1 with a 3.32 ERA on the road this year.

Astros +128 (2.5* Dog of the day) Ja Happ continues his dominance tonight since coming back from the minors he's gone 13 innings pitched given up 1 ER and just 7 hits. He faces the Pirates again who over 7 career starts he has a 2.00 ERA as the Pirates have just a .229 average with .635 OPS and are 28th in OPS vs. LHP. Astros will face a 30 year old lefty who has just a 6.61 k/9 ratio and 3.13 BB/9 ratio in AAA with a 4.66 ERA in Burress so I think they'll be able to get by in this game and taking them as dogs is of great value.

I think this is excellent value considering what the Red Sox have done against Brandon Morrow. Sure he has better stuff, but the Blue Jays just are not hitting right now and in 114 collective at bats they have a .246 average and .606 OPS vs. Wakefield while the Red Sox have a .307 average in 114 AB with a .962 OPS. Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Ortiz, Pedroia, and Scutoro are a combined 25-52 off Morrow for a .481 average. Morrow has really struggled at home while he has an ERA under 3 on the road his home ERA is 6.38. He'll struggle here again as Boston is 37-16 in their last 53 road games.

Giants -133 (4* MLB POD); I love Cain on the road during a day start he's got a 2.81 ERA on the road and a 2.14 ERA during day starts and I have a feeling Carlos Beltran is about to carry this team back into contention. He's red hot right now 12-21 over the last 7 days and he faces Harrang who he has a .304 average against with a .950 OPS. Harrang has a 3.84 ERA during day not as good during the night. The Padres meanwhile have a 186 career at bats active in the line up vs. Matt Cain with a .204 average and a .641 OPS while the Giants have 221 at bats and a .271 average and a .784 OPS vs. Harrang. Giants are 16-5 in their last 21 meetings vs. the NL west while the Padres are 6-25 in their last 31 vs. NL West.

Phillies -117 (4.5 * MLB POD) Tim Hudson makes the start for the Braves and he has not started in Philly since 2007 where the Braves are 3-7 in their last 10. Hudson is also 3-7 in his last 10 road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Hudson has also struggled in September over the last few years with a 4.73 ERA. He struggles big time vs. Ryan Howard who just happens to be on fire at the moment. Howard is 14-47 with 6 HR's off Hudson and this last week he's 9-26 with 4 HR. Mayberry also is 2-2 with 2 HR vs. Hudson and is hitting well right now. Hudson goes up against the much younger Vance Worley, but the Braves offense is beatable scoring just 3.22 runs per 9 over their last 5 games total. He has a 5-0 record with a 1.96 ERA at home and is 8-0 with a 1.51 ERA during night starts this year. Phillies have just been great at home and are 38-18 in their last 56 vs. RH starters and 16-2 in Worley's last 18 starts. Hudson has not pitched as well on the road and he hasn't pitched in this ball park very often having 7 straight home starts vs. the Phillies this should be very different and a playoff like atmosphere.

Tigers +107 *4* MLB POD - Cubs -138 2.5* bonus Love the Tigers today. Fister's 4 starts vs. the Indians this year have resulted in a 2.35 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP and he doesn't have to face Shin Soo Choo who was 8-16 off him in his career. Fister also has pitched well during day games. The Indians starter can't say the same as Jimenez has 9 da starts with a 7.04 ERA this year and the Tigers who are red hot have a .931 career OPS vs. him. Jackson, Cabrera, Young, Peralta, and Martinez are a combined 20-44 for a .455 average off Jimenez and they are scoring 7.55 runs per 9 overall in their last 10 games while the Indians are at 3.70.

Tigers -130 (4* MLB Late Night Fix) Originally looking at this line you consider the White Sox given how well Buerhle has pitched, but a second look and you see Buehlre has just gotten lucky in his 3 starts vs. Detroit this year where he's gone 2-1 he's allowing nearly 2 runners on base per inning. He's given up 28 hits, 10, 10, 8 between the three starts and overall the Tigers have faced him 460 times and they have a .309 career average. Mr. consistency always gets out of jams when he needs to but the core of the Tigers line up and we are leaving Miguel Cabrera out of this has a combined .351 average in 245 at bats. That includes Austin Jackson who is just on fire right now with a .500 average over the last 7 days. Detroit is ranked 6th in OPS vs. LHP and are 47-23 in their last 70 home games vs. LH starters. White Sox on the other hand are 19th vs. RHP in terms of OPS and they face Max Scherzer on 5 days rest where the Tigers are 10-1 when he's pitching on 5 days rest. He's also 18-8 in his last 26 home starts as a favorite and the Tigers are 15-5 in their last 20. The bigger reason why I'm backing the Tigers to sweep the Sox is yesterday's win they came back from a 8-1 deficit to win 9-8. Talk about a deflating loss I don't think the Sox are strong enough to come back from that after they've been basically eliminated from the division in just 2 days.

Cardinals -155 (3* play) Can't help but back the Cards here even if it's at this price. To me it's almost free money as Bronson Arroyo's last 3 starts in St. Louis have been bad. He's got a 8.09 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP and is not getting past 6 innings. He'll leave things up to a bullpen that's just not that good. Meanwhile Edwin Jackson is hitting his strides he's 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA at Busch Stadium and over his last 5 starts he has a 2.59 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Reds do not hit righties nearly as well as lefties they are ranked 15th in OPS vs. RHP while the Cardinals are 4th and are scoring 5.40 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 while the Reds are scoring just 3.86. Reds are just 20-46 in their last 66 visiting St. Louis.