Cardinals +118 4.5* MLB POD
These are great odds considering we have a team that has the edge on both sides, offense and defense.

Pirates -121 4.5* MLB POD
Tim Lincecum has not been the same pitcher all year. His main issues have been his control where he is walking 4.7 guys per 9 innings, but the fact that he's taken 2 mph off his fastball on average can not be ignored either. He's had a 8.65 ERA in his last 5 road starts and he's faced some bad hitting teams. Those 5 teams were ranked at the bottom of the league in OPS vs. RHP 30, 29, 28, 23, and 18th. The Pirates are at the back of the league in OPS vs. RHP too however over their last 10 games they have been hitting scoring 6.95 runs per 9 vs. RHP and batting .300.

A.J. Burnett makes another start and he's been dominant much of this year. He's got a 2.01 ERA at home and a 2.86 ERA during day starts which backs up the Pirates #1 ERA during day games at 2.68. Pirates also are the best home team this year. Burnett eve has controlled Melky Cabrera who is 2-21 vs. the RHP. The Pirates are 20-7 in their last 27 as a favorite and 20-6 in their last 26 home games while Burnett is 11-0 in his last 11 starts. Lincecum on the other hand 5-16 in their last 21 on 4 days rest and 2-10 in his last 12 road starts.

Reds -108 4* MLB POD
I'm looking for the Reds to take another game on the road against the Padres despite the great pitching of late by Clayton Richard who has relied on the ground ball. Homer Bailey though has better numbers vs. the opposition and I'm banking on him to continue that as he has posted a 3.48 ERA in 5 career starts and he's been pitching great on the road posting a 1.89 ERA over his last 5. He goes up against the Padres who are 28th in OPS vs. RHP with a .680 and are scoring just 2.97 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home.

Clayton Richard can not claim such success vs. the Reds who he has posted a 5.57 ERA against over 4 career starts. Phillips, Votto, and Bruce are 11-25 combined alone and the Reds are 5th with a .781 OPS vs. LHP this year. The Reds also have the better bullpen this year by nearly an entire run. The Reds are 27-9 in Bailey's last 36 starts vs. a team with a losing record while Clayton Richard is 5-19 in his last 24 home starts. Richard has gotten it done thus far by being in the top 10 with the ground ball. He only K's 5.23 guys per 9 and his .260 BABIP and 69.5LOB% are well below the norm and are what I consider to be lucky. He faces a Reds team that is 7th in LD% vs. LHP, 26th in GB's meaning they just don't hit grounders as they are 4th in HR/FB so Richard can't expect the same amount of ground balls today and I think the Reds will be able to scratch a few runs across and hold onto any lead with their great bullpen.

Brewers -133 4.5* MLB POD
These are good odds considering the Brewers are 11-3 in their last 14 match ups with the Astros. These are also good odds considering Carlos Lee is no longer with the Astros and are 10-28 in their last 38 games. These are good odds considering Yovani Gallardo is 10-2 with a 2.81 ERA lifetime vs. the Astros and the Astros hitters have 57 AB for a .158 average and .348 OPS vs. Gallardo who is pitching well right now. These are good odds considering J.A. Happ vs. the Brewers has not been very good posting a 6.08 ERA over his last 5 before this year and collectively the Brewers have 101 AB, a .347 average and a 1.060 OPS.

Happ has pitched well lately, but why? He's faced the Cubs, ranked 30th in OPS, the Indians ranked 25th in OPS, and the Royals ranked 21st in OPS vs. LHP. The Brewers are 13th with a ton of success vs. Happ who the Astros rarely win for whether he's pitching well or not. The Brewers are 39-18 in Gallardo's last 57 as a favorite and 23-9 vs. a team with a losing record. I like Gallardo and the Brewers to go into the all star break on a high note.

Rangers -128 4.5* MLB POD
It

Marlins -119 4* MLB POD
I love the Marlins despite getting beat on the walk off yesterday because Josh Johnson is just on top of his game right now and the Brewers have 66 AB total against him and not much to show for it with a .412 OPS and a .167 average. Johnson posts a 1.89 ERA over his last three starts and has a 2.27 ERA in his last 10 July starts. Randy Wolf on the other hand has a 4.11 ERA over the last three years and posts a 4.92 ERA at home over the last three years. Marlins have a .774 OPS combined against him in their career which is far better than the .412 OPS that the Brewers have against Johnson. Brewers are actually just 13-19 during day games and are ranked 22nd with a 4.20 ERA while the Marlins are 14-13 ranked 8th with a 3.38 ERA. The Brewers bullpen has an ERA over 6 at home this year.

Yankees -109 4.5* MLB POD
For a third day in a row we are going with the world

Yankees +123 4.5* MLB POD
I'm going with the Yankees here today although they are 0-7 in their last 7 visits to Tampa I believe they have too many advantages and with this kind of value it is hard to pass up a big play. Garcia will make his first start since being sent to the bullpen where he has thrived with a 1.56 ERA. Garcia struggled as a starter earlier this year, but he faces a Rays team he has dominated over his career. He has posted a 1.32 ERA over his last two visits to Tampa and collectively the Rays have just a .540 OPS in 127 AB against him. Rays are currently 23rd with a .698 OPS vs. RHP and 20th at home with a .673 OPS so Garcia should be in good shape for a quality start. Especially since the Rays are losers of 6 of 7 being out scored 39-17.

Matt Moore on the other hand has been pretty good of late, but he's on 4 days rest in this game for the first time since May 22nd where he threw just 4.2 innings giving up 4 ER. Moore has faced some light hitting teams of late ranked 22nd, 13, 18th twice over his last 4 starts in terms of OPS vs. LHP. He will have his hands full the second time around vs. the Yankees. I don't trust Moore's stuff for one he struggles with control walking 4.3 batters per 9 and he's giving up 1.33 HR/9. Yankees are #1 in HR and #3 in BB's. Moore throws just 3 pitches and he throws the fastball 70% of the time where the Yankees are ranked #1 vs. that pitch. Yankees are 45-20 in their last 65 vs. LH starter. Garcia on the other side has a 4.03 xFIP and has much more control walking just 2.32 guys per 9.

Yankees -140 4.5* MLB POD
I think we are getting great odds here in this game considering Floyd's troubles with the Yankees and the tendency to give up HR's which is what the Yankees are all about. Floyd is giving up 1.5 HR/9 and is coming off two quality starts so I believe a let down is in order. He's struggled vs. the Yankees posting a 5.47 ERA vs. the Yankees over his last 4 and collectively the Yankees have 149 AB, a .282 average and an .840 OPS.

Phil Hughes on the other hand has 4 starts and 4 relief appearances posting a 2-1 record and a 0.75 ERA holding the Sox to a .586 OPS in 66 AB. The Yankees are the #1 OPS team during day games with a .819 and are 14-8. The White Sox are 10-23 in Floyd's last 33 as road dogs. The Yankees on the other hand are 32-10 in Hughes last 42 as a home favorite and 18-6 in their last 24 vs. RH starter.

Reds -129 4.5* MLB POD
I love this play based on the success Mat Latos has had over the years against the Giants particularly at ATT Park where he has a 1.85 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in his last 5 starts here. Collectively the Giants have just a .566 OPS against Latos who before this year had 3.17 ERA during his last 27 day starts compared to Zito who has a 4.56 over his prev 21. Reds are also an excellent day hitting team where they rank 8th in OPS while the Giants are 24th with a .676 OPS during the day. The Reds are also one of the better hitting teams vs. LHP ranking 5th with a .790 OPS and they are even better against Zito.

The Reds have a .307 and a .921 OPS in 127 AB vs. Zito, but the starting line up today is collectively 28-88 with 3 HR and a .318 average. Zito has pitched well during the day and at home which is the reason we are getting such a low line. However he's been really lucky considering he's got just 5.03 K/9 and 4BB/9 this year. He's held opposing batters to a .250 BABIP so that's one of the reasons his 4.00 ERA is where it is but it should be closer to his 5.21 XFIP. Latos on the other hand has 8.42K/9 and 2.84 BB/9 and his xFIP is 3.95. His greatest weakness is also a weakness of the Giants. He's given up 1.73 HR/9, but the Giants are 28th overall in HR and 29th in HR during day games with just .54 HR/day game.Oddsmakers have been pretty accurate with the lines when Zito starts as the Giants are 4-12 in his last 16 as a dog +110 to +150 and I'm betting that trend moves to 4-13.

Rockies -144 5* MLB POD
We are going with the Rockies as our MLB POD despite their inability to keep teams from scoring a lot of runs. Facing the Padres could help as Jeff Francis goes up against the Padres who are 28th in the league in OPS vs. LHP and are only scoring 3.30 Runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road. Francis has held them to a .506 OPS in 55 AB and he will have plenty of run support the way the Rockies have been hitting especially Carlos Gonzalez 34-74 wiht 7 HR 18 RBI during a 17 game hit streak. Gonzalez is playing like an MVP right now and I think the Rockies can get in a little groove here. Rockies are #2 with a .792 OPS vs RHP and are #1 with a .868 OPS at home. They'll face off against Jason Marquis who is pitching well above what his raw stats say which is trouble. He's got less than a 2:1 K/BB ratio as he is walking 3.73 guys on the year and giving up 1.64 HR/9 is hard to do when you are getting over 54% ground balls. He's in trouble in Colorado vs. a hot team who is led by Todd Helton who is 10-32 with 3 HR. collectively they have an .825 OPS against Marquis. Padres are 15-39 in their last 54 road games as an under dog.

Angels -111 5* MLB POD
I got to believe the Angels stay hot as they are now 13-3 in their last 16 road games. They have a distinct match up advantage on the mound here with Dan Haren who has dominated the Jays vs. Brett Cecil making just his 3rd start this year and struggling to go deep. Cecil is on just 4 days of rest after 98 pitches compared to Haren who is on 5 days rest. Dan Haren has dominated the Jays in the past despite his tendency to give up home runs in 2012. IN his last 2 starts in Toronto last year he posted a 2.40 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. Over the last three years he has a 2.43 ERA in 4 starts on turf. The Jays have a .226 average and a .684 OPS vs. Haren in their career. Their main issues is going to be dealing with Haren's #2 pitch the cutter which he throws a third of the time. The Jays are ranked 28th this year vs. the cutter.

ON the flip side Brett Cecil will have his hands fill with the #1 offense in June. The Angels have exploded and have come on real fast hitting lefties hard but also righties. They have an .831 OPS this month and over their last 10 games they are hitting .368 and scoring 7.68 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Career vs. Cecil they have hit him hard with an .837 OPS. Cecil has 5 career starts vs. the Angels posting a 6.43 ERA. Cecil over his last 3 years has posted a 4.79 ERA at home and even worse a 6.08 ERA in June compared to Haren's 2.93 ERA in June. Haren has struggled of late giving us plenty of value on this line. The Jays are 5-14 in their last 19 as a dog and I don't think their bats can keep up with the Angels who are also getting success out of their bullpen a 1.01 ERA over their last 10.

2* play
The Rockies sure are not shy about putting runs on the board and with their success against Edwin Jackson I believe the odds are in our favors backing the Rockies today despite the great play of the Nationals and poor play of the Rockies. Jackson has 3 starts at Coors and posts a 15.75 ERA and a 2.42 WHIP, while The active hitters have a combined 1.096 OPS and a .389 average in 90 AB against. Carlos Gonzalez remains red hot right now and I don

Red Sox -131 4.5* MLB POD
Two south paws kick off a day game today where the Red Sox are 10-15 during the day this year while the Blue Jays are 15-13.

Dodgers -116 4.5* MLB POD
Clayton Kershaw is the definition of a stopper and the Giants own a career .537 OPS against him in terms of their active hitters.

Cardinals -108 4.5* MLB POD
Ricky Nolasco is coming off one of his worst starts of his career and now he returns home to face the Cardinals whom he has struggled against.

Astros -115 4.5* MLB POD
The Indians are 29th in OPS vs. LHP as they face J.A. Happ whose numbers look bad on paper, but he's been solid at home in most of his games and carries a 3.89 XFIP. He should be able to have success against the Indians who are hitting just .219 and scoring 3.64 runs per 9 vs. LHP while posting a bullpen ERA of 5.13 on the road this year over a run higher than the Astros bullpen ERA.

Derek Lowe starts for the Indians and Carlos Lee is very familiar with the righty going 16-44 with 2 HR and a .364 average. Lowe has a 6.18 ERA in his 7 road starts and he faces an Astros team that's scoring nearly a run more at home than the Indians are on the road. Astros are also 36-15 in their last 51 inter league games as a favorite -110 to -150.

Angels -146 5* MLB POD
I like Ervin Santana to continue what he did last time out which was throw a complete game shutout. For on the Dodgers are 30th in the league in June OPS with a .614 mark while the Angels are on a tear 21-7 in their last 28 games and are 2nd with a .815 OPS in the month of June. It also helps that Santana has dominated the Dodgers holding them to a .594 OPS combined in 139 AB with a .223 average. He's on 6 days rest so the complete game where he only threw 102 pitches will not be a factor. I see him dominating these Dodgers hitters today.

On the flip side the Angels 26 runs in their last 3 games alone go up against a lefty in Chris Capuano. Angels have soared in their rankings vs. LHP and are now 12th overall with a .731 OPS. Over their last 10 games they have a .347 average and are scoring 8.45 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Pujols leads the club vs. Capuano as he's19-36 with 5 HR to combine with the rest of the team which has a total of 91 AB and a .462 average and 1.364 OPS. Capuano has had a nice start to the season, but he will digress and have inconsistent starts for a while and this is one I"m banking on him struggling in.

Dodgers are now 16-48 in their last 64 inter league road games while the also going 8-22 in their last 30 trips to play the Angels. While the Angels are 46-17 in their last 63 games vs. the NL West and 40-17 in their last 57 inter league games vs. LH starter.

[b]Thunder + 140 5.5* nba pod pirates -155 4* pod[/b]
McDonald has been like an ace posting 1.75 era in 7 home starts and he goes up against the twins offense which is ranked 29th in ops .644 on the road this season. Twins start Liam Hendricks who has pitched terribly allowing 8 hr in 5 starts and he faces the pirates who before last night had 25runs over 3 games. Pirates are a streaky offensive bunch and I see them scoring some runs off Hendricks. McDonald should be dominant especially if joe Mauer doesn't start.

Padres +170 2* Early Bird Bonus
I feel there is tremendous value here as the Padres try to avoid the sweep in this twilight game.

Padres +170 2* Early Bird Bonus
I feel there is tremendous value here as the Padres try to avoid the sweep in this twilight game.

[B]Red Sox -148 4.5* MLB POD; [/B]
Mark Buehrle and Clay Bucholz face off against each other once again and I"m backing Bucholz as he continues to pitch like an ace of late. Buehlre also pitched well last time out but he didn't have to face David Ortiz who will be DH'n tonight and is 20-58 off Buehrle in his career. Overall the Red Sox have hit Buehrle and lefties well this season while the Marlins have been pathetic vs. RHP. Bucholz also has been stellar during his night starts posting a 4.10 ERA this year is not as impressive but over his previous 40 night starts he posted a 2.66 ERA.

The Marlins just are not hitting they are 28th in OPS during night games, and are 26th vs. RHP. They have 32 AB and a .188 average with a .653 OPS vs. Bucholz. Boston has much more experience with 302 AB vs. Buehrle and Buehrle's last 3 starts in Boston have resulted in an 8.20 ERA. He doesn't strike guys out so he relies on his control and ground balls, but the Red Sox should be able to get to him at Fenway in my opinion. If they don't the Marlins will have to hit and they are hitting .179 with 21 runs over their last 12 games. Boston vs. LHP compared to Marlins vs. RHP is not even close they are +2.03 runs per 9 on the season, +3.35 at home vs. away, and +3.44 over the last 10 games. All the while Boston has a bullpen that's nearly a run better and they post a bullpen ERA that's over 5 runs better over the last 10 games combined 1.07 to 6.18.

Rangers -170 5* MLB POD
We are getting pretty good odds considering the Rangers have a better bullpen by nearly a run on the year, by 1.06 on the road vs. SD at home, and by 2.01 in the last 10 games.

Rangers -170 5* MLB POD
We are getting pretty good odds considering the Rangers have a better bullpen by nearly a run on the year, by 1.06 on the road vs. SD at home, and by 2.01 in the last 10 games.

Yankees -115 2.5* PLAY
In inter league play I love playing teams that have seen a pitcher before and the Yankees have seen Edwin Jackson plenty. In their time of 163 combined at bats they have 8 HR and an .898OPS. Jackson has not faced any offensive team in the top 10 with the exception of the Mets who are 10th right now. The Yankees are 2nd with a .792 OPS and they are even better during day games. Washington on the other hand is 22nd vs. RHP and Ivan Nova is starting to get into a groove that will continue today as the Yankees stay red hot.

Marlins -116 4.5* MLB POD
The Marlins won a thriller yesterday and though we were the unfortunate ones on the other side of a 15 inning loss after the Rays gave up 3 unearned runs during Shields start we think this is the turning point the Marlins offense needs. They'll have their ace Josh Johnson on the mound as he faces a struggling Rays offense one that is now 24th in OPS vs. RHP and 24th in OPS with a .674 mark during day games. Rays have 44 AB .182 average and a .523 OPS vs. Johnson and Longoria had three of their total hits. Without Longoria the Rays are unable to do damage against quality pitchers like Johnson.

On the other side Cobb has been struggling getting beat up for 4,4, and 5 runs in his last 3 starts as more and more of a scouting report comes out on him. He's a pretty basic pitcher with nearly 90% of his pitches being a fast ball or a change up. Now if you have a deadly combination that can be effective but Cobb rarely tops 90 mph on a regular basis. I think the win last night was what the Marlins needed to get their bats going and I see them going on a run here.

Rays -134 5* MLB POD
James Shields is having a great year, but his numbers are not telling the full picture. He's a rare guy in the fact that he's got 8.64 K/9 and he gets a ton of ground balls 56.4% among the leagues best. He faces the Marlins, a team he has flat out dominated of late. Over his last three starts he's got 24.1 IP and 1 ER while K'ng nearly 30 batters. The Marlins continue to struggle vs. RHP and are 26th in OPS. TB is averaging over a run better vs. RHP per 9 innings and the story is even worse when we look at it from a H/A perspective and if we look at the last 10 games the Marlins are scoring just 1.45 runs per 9 and their bullpen is struggling mightily with a 8.63 ERA. On the season the Rays bullpen has been over a run better. While they post a 2.28 bullpen ERA at home this year.

The Rays will continue to stay afloat without Evan Longoria as they face Anibal Sanchez. They are 23-10 in their last 33 games vs. RH starters at home and over their last 10 games they are scoring 5.43 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Rays hitters own .826 OPS vs. Sanchez who is starting to come back to live giving up 11 ER combined over his last two starts. Marlins are 6-15 in his last 21 starts as an under dog and they are 16-40 in their last 56 as a dog +110 to +150.

Yankees +119 4* MLB POD
The Yankees as under dogs in inter league play?

ARI/TEX U10.5 4.4* MLB POD

Dbacks +144 1.5* bonus

Angels -137 4.5* MLB POD
After looking at the card a few times this game sticks out the most to me. C.J. Wilson goes up against the young lefty in Nate Eovaldi who throws 95mph. However, there is now a scouting report on Eovaldi and the scouting says that 3 out of 4 pitches he's throwing a fast ball. The Angels are the #1 team in hitting that pitch over the last 2 weeks. They also have been more selective while getting walks which was a rare thing for them in the first two months of the season. That results in better counts and better pitches to hit and the results are obvious. The Angels have scored 7.23 R/9 over the last 10 games while hitting .328. While the Dodgers .222 3.15 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10. Wilson combo of 8.32 K/9 and a 54% ground ball rate are intriguing and a rare combo. Unlike Eovaldi he spreads his pitches out with 5 different pitches in his arsenal. His last 4 outings have been stellar while opponents have a .146 avg against him. He's also 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 5 career road starts in inter league play. I'm going with the Angels and their new approach to stay hot and take this game.

Yankees -154 2.5* bonus
I can't help but back the big guy who is 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA in 12 interleague starts against the Braves whom I believe will struggle vs. LHP when it is all said and done. They have a combined .669 OPS in 54 AB vs. C.C. and while the Yankees have never seen Minor he has the worst ERA in the big leagues among qualified starters. Yankees are also among the best in hitting LHP as they are 42-18 in their last 60 overall and an AL best 12-7. They also own a major advantage in their bullpen. Minor has to watch out for the long ball once again as he faces the Yankees who are #1 in HR vs. LHP and 6th in BB. That all goes along with their #1 rank vs. the fastball. If Minor can't get his other pitches over for strikes it will be a long night and that's how he's been this year.

Red Sox -104 4* MLB POD
love the Sox here as Mark Buehlre has started to come back to earth with a 4.91 ERA in his last two starts. Now he faces a team that has faced him many times before and the active lineup has a .337 average against him in nearly 100AB. That's not including David Ortiz fromt he bench who is 20-58 vs. him. The Red Sox as a team have hit much better vs. LHP (3RD IN OPS) than the Marlins have vs. RHP (26th). I also like the fact that Bucholz seems to be back on top of his game wiht three quality starts in a row posting a 0.92 WHIP and a 1.50 ERA. He'll be back on top of his game today as he faces a Marlins team that is scoring just 2.26 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games and have never seen Bucholz before.

Meanwhile Buehlre goes up against the Red Sox who are scoring nearly 2 runs more per 9 vs. LHP than the Marlins are vs. RHP and they are scoring 5.55 over their last 10 combined while sporting a 2.79 bullpen ERA. Speaking of bullpen the Marlins have a 6.51 over their last 10 and a 4.48 ERA at home while the Sox have a 2.84 on the road. I'm not that worried about Bucholz on short rest as Buehlre is too and the Red Sox are 26-7 in their last 33 with Bucholz on 4 days rest. Marlins are 21-43 in their last 64 home games vs. a RH starter where they struggle big time.

[b]Angels +101 4* MLB POD[/b]
You can't go wrong with taking the Angels as under dogs right now even if it is against MLB's best team record wise. The Dodgers send Chris Capuano to the mound who is 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA. However, it's been long coming for him to digress and against the Angels who came off a series scoring 28 runs in 3 games and Pujols has monster numbers against Capuano as he's 18-33 with 5 HR. Tori Hunter is also 7-15 with a HR and the others help combine for a .472 average and a 1.406 OPS in 72 AB. The Angels are hitting .318 with 7.78 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. LHP and are 39-14 in their last 53 vs. the NL West as well as 41-17 overall in their last 58 in interleague play. Dodgers meanwhile are 18-42 in interleague play vs. a winning team. I like the Richards kid going for the Angels as he seems to have good stuff striking out 8 against a Mariners team that has been hitting lately. Capuano lately has benefited from opponents having a .228 BABIP. Angels are 3rd over the last 14 days with a .337 BABIP. Something is bound to break and I'm putting my money on it being Capuano.

Marlins -133 4** pod

Angels -153 4* bonus Jerome Williams has been fantastic at home going 8-0 with a 2.32 ERA in 8 starts and 11 games this year while Hector Noesi has a 7.47 ERA and his on 3 days rest. I don't think there has been another pitcher going on 3 days rest this year, but 68 pitches or not there is warm up, and pitches before innings that all add up and a young pitcher going up against the hot Angels I think he's doomed to give up some runs here today. Angels are 40-14 in their last 54 with Seattle at home and are playing the rubber game here where the Mariners are 19-39 in their last 58 vs. RH starters.

Braves +126 4.5* MLB POD
I love the Braves here as road dogs as Tim Hudson is 9-4 in his last 13 as a road dog. More importantly he's pitched well vs. the Marlins with 2 of 3 quality starts last year while posting an overall 3.54 ERA. Anibal Sanchez had an ERA over 9 with a 1.97 WHIP against the Braves a year ago and has been stellar thus far. That's why we are getting great odds here, but the Braves line up is red hot vs. Sanchez the combined starters are 35-97 vs. Sanchez with a .361 average and I look for that to continue tonight.

The Marlins on the other hand are 51-185 vs. Hudson for a .275 and the reigning player of the month in Stanton is just 2-12 against him. Hudson also has a ton of quality starts this year as does Sanchez, but Sanchez has faced only two top 15 teams in OPS vs. RHP. Braves have hit well during night games and are ranked 7th with a .751 OPS while the Marlins are 20th with a .707. On top of all of that the Braves have a better bullpen.

Rays +122 2* bonus
I've had my eye on Shields for a while now and once again he's a dog and I'm going to back him going up against Andy Pettitte who I'm still not sold on him. Pettitte has faced 3 teams in the bottom third in OPS vs. LHP through his first 4 starts and the Rays are scoring 4.76 runs per 9 vs. LHP. I don't think they'll miss Longoria tonight who was 2-18 vs. Pettitte anyway. Look out for Pena who has 6 HR in 40AB. Overall the Rays have a .939 OPS in 138 AB against the south paw.. Shields is a rare pitcher right now he's top 3 with a 59% ground ball % which is a good quality to have at Yankee Stadium. He's also 11th in K/9. Unfortunately for Shields he's got a .319 BABIP which is really unlucky. I see that luck changing today as the Rays take one from the pinstripes.

Rangers -127 (4.5* MLB POD)
Scott Feldman could be the odd man out with Roy Oswalt coming to town, but I believe he

Dbacks -115 (4.5* MLB POD)
Arizona will face a LHP where they are much better hitter, 10th with a .736 OPS. Justin Upton got a mental day off yesterday and he should return on Sunday and play a huge factor as he's 2-4 with a HR 2 BB and a 1.917 OPS in his career vs. ERic Stultz whose raw stats raise a very large red flag. Stultz has 3.28 K/9 with 3.28 BB/9. A 1:1 ratio is very rare in its own right but he's also been extremely lucky .247 BABIP. Vegas knows it can get public bettors off guard with ERA stats, but looking deeper there is a reason Stultz was dropped earlier this year. When the majority of your balls are getting put in play things are bound to go wrong. He's also walking a lot of guys and his ERA has stayed low because of the lucky .247 BABIP (one of the lowest in the leagues). Well now he faces a Diamondbacks team that is top 10 in K"s, but when they put the ball in play they are 6th in average. They also walk quite a bit and are 8th in BB/K ratio. It's not a good match up for Stultz here today and I think the Dbacks will continue their trend of 13-3 in their last 16 as a road favorite -110 to -150.

If they win they'll need another solid performance from Trevor Cahill who gave up just 2 hits and 1 ER vs. the Padres earlier in the year. The Padres are 28th with a .651 OPS vs. RHP and Cahill is getting hitters to hit the ball on the ground 62% of the time which is second to only Derek Lowe. The Diamondbacks are scoring over a run more per 9 vs. LHP than the Padres are vs. RHP and both bullpens are even on home/away splits. However, the Padres bullpen has been struggling with an ERA over 7 in their last 5 and 6.67 in their last 10. Cahill has been solid on the road this year with a 3.26 ERA and I think it continues in a ballpark that is pitcher friendly while the Dbacks will get another win vs. a LHP and the Padres will continue their awful run of 18-48 in their last 66 as an under dog.

Nationals -136 (2.5* play)
The Nationals send their ace to the mound on Sunday against the Braves and Tommy Hanson who is 2-6 in his last 8 starts on Sunday. Hanson has not pitched well during the day and the Nationals have had success against him when they are healthy. Their players own 107 AB and a .802 OPS against Hanson while Gio Gonzalez in 1 start dominated the Braves who had been hitting lefties hard this year, but own just a .188 average over their last 10 games. They could be without Brian McCann today after getting hit in the left knee and I'll jump on this line early thinking he won't play today. The Braves are an entirely different team offensively when he's not in the line up. Nationals are also 25-9 in their last 34 vs. a starter with a WHIP > 1.30 so even if he does start I'm confident in the home team over Atlanta during this early bird game. Braves are 6-10 during day games while the Nationals are 11-6 and own the 2nd best day ERA.

Royals -122 (5* MLB POD)
Luke Hochevar has been awful this year and Brandon McCarthy has been great, but as we know with McCarthy who is coming off 2 weeks of not pitching he pitches much better at home in the big ball park. His ERA is more than double on the road and he makes a day start where the Royals are 6th with a .754 OPS. He can't give up any runs the way the A's have been hitting. Over their last 10 they are scoring just 1.21 runs per 9 and a .148 average vs. RHP. That's huge for Luke Hocevars confidence.

Hochevar gets the start and he faces the A's who are 29th in OPS vs. RHP, but are 30th with a .578 OPS during day games. Hochevar has faced probably the most challenging schedule thus far. He faced the Angels in his first start of the year who are currently 20th in OPS VS. RHP, and since he's faced 8 teams that ranked no higher than 12th in OPS vs. RHP. Now he gets the A's at home during the day and he'll have a great chance to improve on his unlucky .363 BABIP.

Brewers -140 (5.5* MLB POD)
I love the Brewers here tonight fresh off a sweep in LA they return home where they are 46-8 in their last 54 home games vs. the Pirates.

Brewers -140 (5.5* MLB POD)
I love the Brewers here tonight fresh off a sweep in LA they return home where they are 46-8 in their last 54 home games vs. the Pirates.

Red Sox -133 (4.5* MLB POD)
Both Beckett and Scherzer have pitched well since the last time the two faced each others teams and were horrific.

Orioles +125 3* play
This play was nearly our play of the day, but the way the Jays have been hitting I

[b]Blue Jays -130 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
I'm going with the team that is home and the pitcher that's been more consistent. Ricky Romero has struggled with control at times, but the Orioles are 18th in BB's and Romero has a 1.11 ERA in his last 3 vs. the Orioles and is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA since the 2010 series. Jake Arieta is 3-1 with a 3.80 ERA, but he's given up 7 ER in his two starts in Toronto along with 4 HR. I see much of the same happening here tonight. The Orioles are 13-42 in their last 55 at Toronto. They've hit lefties hard, but their #1 and #2 hitters are a combined 4-32 against Romero. Romero will be able to pitch around this line up as the Blue Jays hurt Arieta whose struggles (0-3, 7.15 ERA over last 4 starts) will continue.

Diamondbacks -112 4.5* MLB POD
Barry Zito is a phony. He is nearly at a 1:1 ratio for K/BB which is never good when you are only striking out 5.47 batters. He faces a team that is 6th in the league in walks and he's walked Upton/Young a combined 15 times. There should be runners on base all day long and I see his ERA starting to creep towards his xFIP of 5.20 which is a more accurate indication of his ability right now. Zito just does not match up against the Diamondbacks well who are 10th with a .740 OPS vs. LHP. They score 1 run more per game vs. RHP than when they face righties and over 187 AB they have a .792 OPS vs. Zito who over the last three years has had 5 starts vs. the Diamondbacks and an 8.31 ERA to show for it.

Trevor Cahill on the other hand has better raw stats with a 3.83 XFIP and the Giants have 77 AB .195 and a .555 OPS against him. Giants are only scoring 3.5 runs per 9 vs. RHP this year at home so the Dimaondbacks 4.48 vs. LHP gives them the edge here too. Diamondbacks are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings while the Giants are 5-12 in Zito's last 17 as a dog.

Dodgers -137 4.5* MLB POD Two lefties take the mound today in LA where the Dodgers just keep winning despite all of their injuries. Today is the rubber game between a team that's 20-5 at home and a team that's 6-14 on the road. I'm going with the home team as Chris Capuano has been fabulous at home this year posting a 1.38 ERA in his 4 starts here and a 1.35 ERA during day. J.A. Happ ont he other hand has a 6.19 ERA on the road and a 6.19 ERA during his day starts. This is not a surprise as Happ posted a 6.62 ERA on the road last year with a 1-9 record. Happ is pitching better of late and that's the main reason we have a shorter line here, but the Dodgers have a .408 average in 49 AB vs. Happ and the Astros are also 15-45 in their last 60 road games while the Dodgers are 43-17 in their last 60 home. I also like the fact the Dodgers are 9th in OPS vs. LHP while the AStros are nearly .100 pts behind and are ranked 20th. Astros are hitting just .190 on the road vs. south paws this year averaging 2.70 runs per 9 while the Dodgers are at .281 and 5.95 at home. That stat is not from early success as the Dodgers are still raking against lefties over their last 5 games they are at .292 and 6.14 runs per 9.

Orioles -113 4.5* MLB POD
I am loving the way the Orioles are playing and their star Adam Jones is the reason why as he's hitting .348 during his 16 game hitting streak. The Royals will face a lefty and that is not something they get too excited over as they are 22nd with a .655 OPS this year and are a meager 14-47 in their last 61 road games vs. a left hand starter. They faced Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks for the first time and he shut them out for 7 innings. Now Wei-Yin Chen makes his debut and has been lights out with a 1.98 ERA at home. Chen is primarily a fastball and change up pitcher with 80% of his pitches coming from those two pitches and the Royals are ranked 21st and 28th overall vs. the fastball and change up. I'm expecting a quality start from Chen here.

As for the Orioles they have some revenge to take on Felipe Paulino who is pitching out of his mind right now with an ERA under 2. That's something out of the ordinary because Paulino over the last three years has 24 road starts and 41 games with a 5.85 ERA. He shut the Orioles out at home earlier this year but now he has to do it on the road and on top of that he's doing it against an Orioles team that's been clutch 14-3 vs. a starter with a whip under 1.15. Paulino also in a hang over spot as he pitched great vs. the Yankees and that's another reason why we have great odds in this situation. The line should be at least -130, but we are getting it at close to money. Paulino is all about the fastball and slider. He averages a 95mph fast ball, but guess what the Orioles are absolutely a fast ball hitting team (5th in the league vs. the fastball) and they are not so bad against the slider that he throws 27% of the time (ranked 11th). Baltiomore is 4th with a .751 OPS during day games and are 9-4 overall with a 3.99 ERA while the Royals are 5-8 with a 4.47 ERA.

[b]PHILLIES -118 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
This is the longest Cliff Lee has gone without a win and its not like he has pitched well. Lee should be well motivated against the Cardinals who are fading fast. Beltran and Holliday are a combined 3-18 vs. Lee and the rest of the line up has an OPS under .600 when you take Berkman out of the line up. Cardinals actually vs. LHP have struggled of late with a .233 average and just 3.43 runs per 9 over their last 10 games combined while the Phillies have hit righties well all year and are hitting .300 over their last 10 while scoring 4.91 runs per 9. Kyle Lohse has struggled of late and there are three big hitters in the Phillies line up that he struggles against and that's Wiggington, Pierre, and Pence who are a combined 27-66. I expect the Phillies bats to get hot and for Lee to get his first win tonight.

Mariners +111 4* MLB POD; LAA/SEA U6.5 2.2* PLAY
Both Vargas and Harren will have the upper hand tonight agsint these bottom ranked offenses. The Angels are still struggling and it's even worse vs. LHP where they are 28th with a .620 OPS this year as the Mariners are 27th vs. RHP but with a .664 OPS (slightly better). Vargas has impressive numbers in 10 career starts vs. the Angels posting a 2.39 ERA as he has held them to a .608 OPS in 150 AB with a .220 average. The Angels are hitting just .191 while scoring 3.28 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road this year while sporting a 4.54 bullpen ERA. The Mariners are better but not by much at .199, 4.21 runs per 9 vs. RHP and 2.76 bullpen ERA. The home advantage along with the bullpen at home are the major reasons why I see the Mariners winning this game along with their bats being a little alive of late. Dan Haren may dominated the Mariners in his career but his margin for error is slim considering what the Angels offense has done. For the under I expect this to be a low scoring game and the under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Seattle and the Angels are 15-5-1 on the under in their last 21 road games where they post just a .632 OPS this year.

Tigers -108 3* play
Doug Fister has dominated the Indians and his team has too 10-1 in their last 11 meetings. Tigers are better off against RHP and they have faced Zach McCallister before. Neither team is really crushing the ball right now so I'll gow ith Fister who has held the Indians to a .597 OPS in 168 AB including posting a 1.62 ERA in 6 starts vs. the Indians a year ago.

Royals +189 2* play
Why not, the Yankees always struggle against new pitchers and we got Will Smith on the mound! Pettitte also can not be as sharp as we have seen so far and the Royals have good numbers off south paws and Pettitte. I expect the Royals to win here tonight or at least put up enough runs to do so.

Twins +140 4* MLB POD
PJ Walters will make his third start of the year and he's been pretty good in the first two against the Tigers and Blue Jays posting a 1.05 WHIP. Walters had a 2.70 ERA over 33 innings in AAA and he faces a White Sox team that has never faced him before. A Whitesox team with a losing record at home.

On the flip side the Twins will look to stay hot as they have won 4 of 5 games and 35 runs over their last 5 games. Gavin Floyd goes for the Twins and he's been terribly consistent against the Twins. As Minnesota has 157 AB .363 average and a .966 OPS vs. Floyd. Floyd in his last 3 home starts vs. the Twins posted a 10.91 ERA and a 2.23 WHIP. in all three starts gave up 6 ER or more.

Astros -115 2.5* PLAY
I think the Cubs 7 game losing streak continues as the Cubs have to face a lefty in JA Happ. The Cubs are 30th with a .587 OPS vs. LHP and on the road this year they are hitting .186 and scoring just 1.82 runs per 9 vs. LHP. The one bright spot for the Cubs on page is Travis Wood coming up from AAA as he had a 1.02 ERA with the Reds in 3 starts last year vs. Houston. However, he only posted a 4.57 ERA in AAA last year and the Astros are scoring 5.75 runs per 9 at home. I don't expect Wood to go deep into the game which means the Cubs 4.61 ERA bullpen on the road will play a major factor.

J.A. Happ is not getting enough credit here. For one he has a 2.95 ERA over the last 3 years in April and he's coming off his best start of the year vs. the Brewers 6 IP 0 ER. He's had some tough match ups early in the year and finally gets a break facing the Cubs at home. His 3.57 BB/9 and 1.59 HR.9 have been a major issue, but the Cubs are ranked 26th in each category which should lead to another quality start for Happ today.

Astros -107 2.5* play
Pitching match up here is pretty even with Garza vs. Norris and many wouldn't know it. I actually giving a bigger edge to Norris who is pitching at home because for one he's been great at home with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP and hitters are hitting just .188 against him there. Also he's on fire with a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts and the Cubs are 8-18 in their last 26 road games. Norris is also striking out more batters and walking less than Garza who has a 4.56 ERA on the road. Norris has a 2.31 ERA in his 4 career starts vs. the Cubs who will try to snap a 6 game losing streak. I just don't see it happening especially since the Astros have the better bullpen by far as well with a season home ERA of 2.24 while the Cubs are posting a 4.88 ERA on the road.

Rays -132 (5.5* MLB POD)
Like the Rockies the Blue Jays are a completely different team away from home. Jeremy Hellickson who has a 1.44 ERA at home facing some pretty good teams including the Red Sox and Yankees has a 3.92 ERA vs. the Blue Jays but all three starts have been in Toronto. Toronto is 22nd in OPS on the road and they are 6-15 in their last 21 as a road dog. While TB is 20-6 in their last 26 home games facing a RH starter. They'll go up against Kyle Drabek who just is not that good away from home.

Drabek is off a QS vs. the Yankees where he dominated, but it came at a cost as he threw a season high 113 pitches and now he's on 4 days rest going on the road where he has a 5.23 ERA this year and playing in a dome with turf where he posted a 6.95 ERA last year on turf. Drabek should have his hands full tonight and the Blue Jays won't give him much run support. Rays are #1 vs. Drabeks best pitch the fast ball and they are also 3rd in the league in taking walks. Drabek's big issue still is control as he is walking 5.44 runners per 9 innings. I expect the Rays to have guys on base all day long while Hellickson continues his success at home as Toronto is ranked just 16th and 18th overall vs. fast ball and change ups. Hellickson should be able to keep them off balance tonight.

Rangers -159 5* MLB POD
The Rangers are off a loss where they are 41-13 in their last 54 in that following that situation. After a loss they are scoring 6.34 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They are the #1 OPS team vs. RHP and Jordan Lyles is not an unknown for the Rangers line up as he has 2 starts from 2011 when he posted a 1.62 WHIP and 5.54 ERA. He faces a Rangers team that's been consistently good this year scoring 6.59 runs per 9 over their last 10 and 5.69 per 9 vs. RHP on the road this year. Lyles is not particularly tricky to figure out as 84% of his pitches are fast balls and curve balls. Rangers are #4 vs. the fast ball and are an overwhelming #1 vs. the curve ball this year. Unless Lyles changes something the Rangers are going to score runs.

Colby Lewis on the other hand should be salivating at an opportunity to face the Astros line up on the road. Lewis had a great year last year on the road, but is off to a slower start this year. That will happen when you face four top 11 OPS vs. RHP teams as he's faced the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 11th ranked OPS teams. If that was not enough Lewis has a 2.28 ERA over 4 starts vs. the Astros including a 1.72 at Houston where he has never walked a batter over 2 starts. The Astros are hitting just .218 and scoring 2.35 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games that has seen them drop fast to 25th with a .685 OPS vs. RHP. They are also just 2-14 in Lyles last 16 starts and 15-37 in their last 52 as a dog. I like that the Rangers come off a loss and they get a game 3 (rubber game) to win the series against their in state rival. Rangers are 15-5 in their last 20 match ups with the Astros.

Reds +150 2* bonus
These are some great odds for the Reds and Johny Cueto who is 21-87 in his last 29 starts on 4 days rest. The Reds were among the best vs. LHP and during day games last year and they'll face CC Sabathia at 1pm today. Though the Reds are an inconsistent bunch with the bats I give them an edge on the mound. Reds batters have seen Sabathia and have a better idea up there than the Yankees who have just 49 AB vs. Cueto with a .163 average and .515 OPS.

The Reds are also backed by one of the better bullpens and they have played well during day games once again 14-5 to start the year compared to the Yankees 6-6. Cueto has been one of the better day hurlers posting a 1.11 ERA through 5 starts this year and has a 2.01 ERA in 9 starts a year ago and in 2010 he has a 2.19 ERA. Sabathia can be bad at times during day starts but overall posts a 3.00 ERA the last 3 years during day starts. He's definitely beatable and with these odds I'm backing the Reds.

White Sox +130 2* bonus
John Danks has struggled to start the season. Facing the Cubs is just what he needs as he's faced three top 5 OPS teams vs. LHP already and the Cubs are dead last in the league with a .603 OPS. Danks also has dominated the Cubbies before posting a 1.38 ERA in his career at Wrigley Field. White Sox have also been one of the best interleague teams over the past few years as they are 43-16 in their last 59 and 21-6 in their last 27 inter league road games. Ryan Dempster has pitched great to start the season and that is why we are getting great odds here, but I doubt that will continue. He is primarily a 2 pitch pitcher and his velocity is actually a little down this year and Dempster has largely benefited from facing the National League. 3 of his 6 starts are against teams ranked in the bottom third of the league in hitting. Lastly the White Sox have a huge bullpen advantage posting a 1.90 ERA on the road this year while the Cubs have a 4.18 at home and a 6.15 bullpen ERA over their last 10.

Red Sox -113 4.5* MLB POD
Jon Lester has been his usual self on the road and if he could only duplicate those starts at Fenway the Red Sox would be a lot better off. He'll make his 4th career start at Philly tonight and carries a 2.65 ERA on the road over 5 starts this year. I believe that's about to improve as he faces the Phillies who are 16th in OPS vs. LHP. In Lester's 3 starts in Philly he carries a 0.42 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with a 21:5 K/BB ratio. He doesn't have to deal with Utley or Howard which could be a bad thing since they are lefties any way but that takes out the pop in the line up and Lester has held Philly hitters to a .582 OPS and a .209 average over 91 combined at bats.

Joe Blanton will try to continue his success at home where he posts a 2.57 ERA this year as he faces the Red Sox who are 5th in OPS vs. RHP this year. Blanton has faced some bad teams which are a result of his success in my opinion. His 4 home starts have been against 24th, 12th, 23rd, and 22nd ranked teams in OPS vs. RHP. Even his road starts are not that impressive facing 30, 17, 28 and 7. Boston despite all the injuries continue to put runs on the board and Gonzalez has to continue to step up and he is 7-16 vs. Blanton with 2 HR. As we said yesterday in our Red Sox +135, the Sox have a major advantage out of the bullpen compared to the Phillies. Expect it to play a factor tonight. Boston is 67-21 in their last 88 inter league games vs. RH starter and 53-18 when Lester pitches on 4 days rest.

Red Sox +135 3* PLAY Although Cole Hamels has given up just 4ER in his 4 career starts vs. the Red Sox and carries a 2.79 ERA at home this year I

Red Sox +135 3* PLAY Although Cole Hamels has given up just 4ER in his 4 career starts vs. the Red Sox and carries a 2.79 ERA at home this year I

Red Sox +135 3* PLAY Although Cole Hamels has given up just 4ER in his 4 career starts vs. the Red Sox and carries a 2.79 ERA at home this year I

Nationals -143 5* MLB POD
I love the Nationals here today especially with Ryan Zimmermann regularly back in the line up. James McDonald is a bigger reason though as he's been red hot with a 2.42 ERA, but his success on the road is not nearly the same as he posted a 5.42 ERA on the road last year over 15 starts. That was an ERA 2.23 higher than what he had at home and it's looking like the same trend this year. Nationals have saw him before he's 80% fastballs and curve balls and the Nationals are 8th vs. the fastball this year 2nd over the last 7 days. Actually the Nationals are starting to hit the ball and Ryan Zimmermann is a big reason why as he is protecting Bryce Harper who is starting to look like the prospect he is. Nationals have an .821 OPS over the last 7 days to the Pirates .555.

Pirates are last with a .612 OPS this year and they go up against Jordan Zimmerman who they have never faced so it's going to be the same old thing. Zimmerman throws fastball, slider, and curve ball and Pitt is ranked 30th, 29th and 27th vs. that pitch. I'm expecting a quality and dominating performance from him today as the Pirates bats continue to struggle big time.

Angels -150 (3* Early Bird Special)
The White Sox continue to struggle against lefties this year now they are 29th in OPS with a .599.

Braves -110 2.2* bonus
Tim Hudson has a 3.19 ERA in 6 career starts vs. the Reds which is nothing special, but over the last 3 years he has a 2.46 ERA in 41 home starts. He faces the Reds who are 24th in OPS vs. RHP. These are great odds because Johny Cueto is on the other side of the hill and is leading the National League in ERA, but I think he

Braves -110 2.2* bonus
Tim Hudson has a 3.19 ERA in 6 career starts vs. the Reds which is nothing special, but over the last 3 years he has a 2.46 ERA in 41 home starts. He faces the Reds who are 24th in OPS vs. RHP. These are great odds because Johny Cueto is on the other side of the hill and is leading the National League in ERA, but I think he

Tigers -130 4.5* MLB POD
White Sox are among the worst in the league not only at home (6-11) but vs. LHP and they face the Tigers tonight with John Danks on the mound who hasn't exactly been decent when facing the Tigers. Over his last two starts he posts a 13.96 ERA and a 2.58 WHIP. Smyly has been pretty consistent this year so I expect the same when he faced a struggling White Sox team that's 28th in OPS vs. LHP with a .600. The White Sox are also 22nd with a .684 OPS during their home games. Danks has struggled this year so I won't be shocked when he doesn't turn in a quality start today.

Royals +118 4* MLB POD
I like the Royals today mainly because of the pitching match up. White Sox are hitting just .196 and scoring 2.56 runs per 9 vs. LHP and are 27th with a .607 OPS. They go up against Danny Duffy who to me has good stuff as he's averaging over 95mph on his fast ball that he throws 68% of the time. White Sox will struggle big time today as Duffy has a QS in his back pocket vs. the White Sox when he threw 7 innings and gave up 2 ER last year. Meanwhile Phillip Humber continues to struggle big time since throwing his perfect game.

Humber goes up against the Royals for the 2nd time in his career they have a .375 average in 32 AB with a .913 OPS vs. Humber after they hit him pretty hard in KC last year 6 IP 5 ER. KC has 7th in OPS during day games and 8th overall vs. RHP so their bats along with their pitching have the advantage today. Humber's slider should be the pitch the Royals have success on as they are 8th in the league vs. the slider and Humber relies on that pitch nearly 30% of the time this year. White Sox are just 6-10 at home this year and 3-13 in Humber's last 16 starts.

Cardinals -122 4.5* MLB POD
Cardinals lost a tough one last night to the Braves in extra innings as we lost on our POD. Cardinals had multiple opportunities in extra to end this game and they could not come up with the key hit. However, this team bounces back well as they are 22-7 in their last 29 following a loss and 17-6 in their last 23 game 2's while the Braves are 2-9 in their last 11 as an under dog.

The pitching match up is an intriguing one with Adam Wainwright taking on Brandon Beachy. Beachy has been outstanding posting a 1.62 ERA, but his xFIP at 3.93 tells a different story and highlights how he's been a bit lucky with a .225 BABIP. The Cardinals are #1 home team in terms of BABIP and they did not slow down yesterday either. Beachy will have his hands full here today. 80% of his pitches are fastballs and sliders which make it a lot easier for hitters to come to the plate with a strategy.

Wainwright takes the mound after finally looking like himself in his last start as he now posts a 2.70 ERA over his last 3 after a rough start. He actually has a better xFIP at 2.67. What's really been his downfall is the .BABIP with a.319 and 1.87 HR/9. I expect him to come out and pitch great for the Cardinals who need a rebound win. He is 6-0 with a 2.48 ERA in 6 starts vs. the Braves and over his last 35 home starts before this season Wainwright posted a 1.92 ERA. We have an elite pitcher with an elite offense following a loss at home and -122 odds? I'll take that every day of the week. On top of that the Cardinals are 21-6 in their last 27 home games vs. a RH starter where they are ranked 3rd in OPS this year while the Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 games at Busch Stadium.

[b]Rangers -149 3* Early Bird[/b]
This is based on the success of the Rangers vs. LHP as they are ranked 3rd with a .837 OPS while the Angels are 19th with a .650 OPS. Angels are also 25th with a .637 OPS during day games and are 29th vs. the fastball a pitch Matt Harrisson uses 62% of the time. More so than anything I like the Rangers because of the advantage they have in the bullpen. I don't expect either starter to go particularly deep but the Rangers have a huge advantage in the bullpen with a 1.98 ERA on the year to the Angels 4.60 ERA on the year. Angels are 5-13 in their last 18 games vs. a LH starter.

Pirates -130 (2.5* BONUS PLAY)
I like the Pirates in this spot despite their 30th OPS vs. RHP this year as Bud Norris has a 1.42 WHIP over his last 3 starts and the Pirates over 128 AB have a .788 OPS against him.

Pirates -130 (2.5* BONUS PLAY)
I like the Pirates in this spot despite their 30th OPS vs. RHP this year as Bud Norris has a 1.42 WHIP over his last 3 starts and the Pirates over 128 AB have a .788 OPS against him.

Orioles +119 2* PLAY
This is for the first game in the match up of Colby Lewis vs. Wei-Yen Chen.

Orioles +119 2* PLAY
This is for the first game in the match up of Colby Lewis vs. Wei-Yen Chen.

Red Sox -145 (4.5* MLB POD)
The Red Sox are 52-17 in their last 69 with Lester on the mound on 4 days rest.

Braves +103 5* POD
Ryan Dempster has been red hot to start the year over 4 starts he carries a 0.95 ERA, but he has faced some of the worst OPS teams when it comes to their rankings vs. RHP. They are ranked 18, 19, 23, 22nd while the Braves are 9th in OPS vs. RHP and they are 6th in OPS on the road. Braves are scoring 5.88 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games while the Cubs are at just 3.89. Dempster has been using three pitches and the Braves are ranked in the top 10 in all three including being ranked 6th vs. fast ball and #1 overall over the last 7 days against the fastball. Braves have plenty of experience vs. Dempster and should be able to get on base.

ON the flip side Delgado has been unlucky to start with a .321 BABIP and carries a 3.72 xFIP. He primarily uses his fastball 70% of the time where the Cubbies are ranked 24th. Cubs are also ranked 21st in OPS vs. RHP. No Cub has an AB vs. Delgado something that should work to his advantage early. I expect the Braves to bounce back from their loss yesterday and for hte Cubs to lose again.

Cardinals -112 (4.5* MLB POD)
Our big play of the day is on the Cardinals. I believe Lance Lynn is in line for another quality start as the Dbacks bats have been struggly just .212 with 2.61 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They are back home but Lynn has been great on the road this year and I just have more confidence in the Cardinals producing runs. Cardinals are ranked #2 in OPS vs. LHP and Saunders off to a fast, but lucky start with his .245 BABIP and ERA under 2 has only faced bottom tier offenses ranked 28,26,23, 29 and the Braves ranked 6th in OPS vs. LHP but were 29th a year ago. Saunders has to go up agaisnt the best LHP hitting team in the National League and the Cardinals are also 5th in BABIP on the road so I don't see Saunders getting lucky this time especially since he's been working with 3 pitches and 88% of his pitches have been fastball or change up. It's been working for him, but that's not hard to figure out in the majors and the Cardinals are 3rd in the league vs. fastball, 2nd vs. the change up and 3rd vs. the curve ball.

Cardinals are also 12-4 in their last 16 road games vs. a LH starter and Beltran is 4-7 with a HR vs. Saunders who had a 4.42 ERA at home last year. Cardinals continue to hit with or without players and Berkman expected back this weekend shouldn't hurt them at all in this game. Their bullpen is over a run better on the road than the Dbacks is at home so I see that in their favor as well. Arizona is now just 5-11 in their last 16 as a dog and really should have been swept over the weekend by the Mets.

Reds +125 3* play
Arroyo has been solid and it's because he's using 5 different pitches. The Brewers are ranked 15th, 26th, 17th, 25th, and 18th vs. those pitch types and their offense is 29th in the last 7 days with a .571 OPS. They are struggling big time and I don't see it getting better today against Arroyo who the Brewers have just a .213 average and .636 OPS against. Gallardo on the other hand goes up against the Reds who have .360 average and a 1.043 OPS against over 139 at bats. The Reds have been hitting much better lately and are 8th in the last 7 days with a .745 OPS. I see the reds winning this game.

Astros +100 2* play
The Marlins have won 6 straight and now everyone will be jumping on their band wagon, but I'm still not sold in certain situations. They face off against lefty Wandy Rodriguez who they own just a .684 OPS against in 114 AB as he's 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his 5 home starts vs. the Marlins. Marlins have gotten it done primarily with pitching not their hitting yet. Marlins are 26th in OPS vs. LHP and I think it will be a real challenge for them to get on the board especially since Reyes is just 2-18 vs. Rodriguez. Houston on the other hand has been on fire themselves and are 10th in OPS vs. RHP and they have 121 AB vs. Zambrano with a .347 average and a 1.027 OPS. I know it's a "new" Zambrano, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him return to the old Z against a familiar opponent.

Mariners -126 (4.5* MLB POD) Twins bats vs. RHP have been worse than the Mariners and though they have an experienced pitcher in Blackburn on the mound vs. inexperienced Hector Noesi I still like Seattle here for many reasons. First of all Blackburn is a home pitcher. He's been so bad on the road the last two season 5.60 ERA last year and 7.57 the year before. The Twins are just 16-35 in his last 51 road starts and 6-22 when he is on 5 days rest. The Twins are hitting just .186 vs. RHP on the road and are last in OPS overall vs. RHP with a .628 OPS. Meanwhile Seattle is not much better but they are scoring more than a run better per 9 and their bullpen has a solid advantage as well. Twins over the last 5 games have been even worse vs. RHP hitting .062. I don't even know how that's possible. But their bullpen has played poorly 5.28 ERA over the last 5 as well. Seattle has 105 AB a .352 average and a .907 OPS vs. Blackburn and I see them knocking him out around the 5th inning. Hector Noesi, I see going further especially since the Twins have never seen him pitch. He has a high ERA but he's faced 4 top 15 RHP hitting teams including #1, and #7. His game against Oakland 29th vs. RHP was a gem at home 8 IP 0 ER. He's got the ability and I see him putting up a QS for a win here today at home.

Astros +140 2* bonus
Cardinals continue to play good baseball but the Astros are surprising many in the young season. Jaime Garcia has been spot on this year on the road posting great numbers. That is out of the ordinary for Garcia and I see it ending today for him. Garcia had 3 road starts vs. Houston last year and he struggled in every one going 0-3 with a 1.53 WHIP and 6.28 ERA. He is out performing his raw stats so far this year as he is holding onto a 1.43 WHIP and a 2.78 ERA. Those two numbers do not make sense as his xFIP is 3.66 and should be higher.

Bud Norris on the other hand had 2 brilliant home starts last year vs. the Cardinals and is 8-2 in his last 10 vs. St. Louis as the Cardinals might even be without Carlos Beltran tonight and are surely without Berkman, who is 2-6 with a HR off Norris. I think this is a great value play because sooner or later the Cardinals are going to struggle without punch in the middle of the line up and why not against Norris who only gave up 2 ER in 14 IP at home last year to the Cardinals.

Rangers -142 5.5* MLB POD
Rangers have lost three in a row and yet they are still 41-17 in their last 58 following a loss. I see them avoiding losing 4 in a row tonight in what looks like a mismatch on the mound and in the bullpen. For starters Derek Holland dominated the Indians last year in 2 of his 3 starts posting a 16 IP 1 ER over those two starts (1 home, 1 road). Secondly, though the Indians have heated up with their bats they still continue to struggle at home despite 6 runs last night. Most of their success has been on the road as they are hitting just .190 vs. LHP at home this year. They should struggle tonight as they have a .203 average and a .589 OPS vs. Holland over a combined 64 AB.

Texas on the other hand has a .285 average on the road vs. RHP and they got to Derek Lowe on the road in Atlanta last year. Indians have struggled out of the bullpen 5.13 ERA at home to the Rangers road 2.30 bullpen so the advantage is there too. Lowe tossed 5 innings gave up 7 hits and 3 ER vs. Texas last year and the Rangers have 73 combined at bats with a .301 average against him in their careers. Lowe's numbers are good thus far witha 2.27 overall ERA but a 4.60 xFIP should scare many as he is only striking out 2.56 K/9. Indians are just 5-21 in their last 26 meeting with Texas and 5-14 in their last 19 home games vs. a LH starter. I think the better Derek in this one is from Texas or should I say Holland?

Marlins -122 (4.5* MLB POD)
Josh Johnson easily has been the worst luck pitcher as he posts a 2.16 FIP as opponents have a .436 BABIP. That's about the change playing at San Diego where the Marlins will try to win 4 in a row. Padres just .100 average and a .367 OPS in 50 AB VS. Johnson have been struggling big time as they post a .167 average vs. RHP over their last 5 games. I think the Marlins win this game and JOhnson gets on track against the Padres who are 27th in the league with a .648 OPS vs. RHP.

Dodgers -138 3* Early Bird Special
This seems like a real trendy pick.

Indians +108 4* POD;
Love the Indians in this spot as once again they face a pitcher whose second best pitch is the Cutter and they are having great success against it. Speaking of great success the Indians have beaten up on Danks who is 0-4 in his last 6 home starts vs. the Indians posting a 6.25 ERA. Over his last 3 he's gone 15 IP and given up 16 runs. Masterson on the other hand is 3-5 despite a 2.37 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the White Sox. Masterson had a 1.61 ERA vs. the White Sox last year and a 3.15 ERA overall on the road. Walks have been his main issue this year but he faces a team that is 17th in walks. Walks have also been a challenge for Danks and I just like the Indians approach better as they are #1 in BB's while Danks is giving up 4.45 BB/9. Indians have a .739 OPS off Danks in 162 AB.

Indians +116 (4* MLB POD)
Indians lost yesterday, but they

Mariners +189 (1* play)
Why? Well there is enough value here considering the Mariners have 149 AB and a .356 average and .911 OPS vs. James Shields. They

[b]Brewers -106 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
I like the Brewers in this start particularly because of the success they have had vs. Edinson Volquez. Over 8 career starts he's 3-2 with a 5.94 ERA vs. the Brewers. Ryan Braun who nearly had 4 HR in last night's game which is quite the accomplishment considering the make up of Petco Park is 7-19 with a HR off Volquez. The Brewers are a combined .323 in 96 AB with a 1.010 OPS vs. Volquez. Milwaukee is also 16th with a .725 OPS vs. RHP this season while San Diego is 24th with a .655 OPS. San Diego over their last 5 are hitting just .183 and scoring just 1.86 runs per 9 vs. RHP this season and their bullpen has been an issue of late with a 6.23 ERA over their last 5. What's usually a strength has not been as they are 22nd in bullpen ERA on the year.

Brewers on the other hand have started to hit and should have every opportunity again vs. Volquez. With Marcum who had a 2.21 ERA on the road last year and is off to a solid start I"m convinced the Brewers will put themselves in great position for a W. The Padres have just a .651 OPS vs. Marcum in 56 AB. Padres are also 14-38 in their last 52 as a home dog while the Brewers are 19-7 in their last 26 as a road favorite. With the small line I'm convinced we have great value here as I see the Brewers cruising.

[b]Cardinals -108 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Cardinals dominated this series and I see nothing else but the same on Sunday. The Brewers are one of the worst day teams thus far this year as they are 2-8 with a 5.59 ERA and they are 23rd in OPS during day games with a .647 while the Cardinals are 7-4 with a 3.79 ERA and are 5th with a .786 OPS. They face Greinke who has been solid against them, but still Cardinals 97 AB, 299 and .774 OPS off Greinke is much better than the what the Brewers have done against Garcia who has a 0.80 ERA at home over his last 5 home starts vs. the Brewers. Brewers are just hitting .248 in 121 AB and a .677 OPS. Cardinals are now 20-6 in their last 26 home games vs. RH starter as this season they are scoring 7.21 runs per 9 vs. RHP with a .291 average.

Rangers -157 5* MLB POD
Love the Rangers at home in this spot following a loss. I spoke yesterday on how much better this teams bullpen is than the Rays and they let me down yesterday but again today I think we have a significant advantage on the mound with Colby Lewis who has an ERA just over 2 on the season and has been consistent in each start. Lewis in his last 3 starts vs. the Rays has gone 19 innings giving up just 7 hits. TB has 48 AB with a .146 average and .414 OPS vs. Lewis. On the flip side Jeff Nieman has terrible number posting an ERA over 10 the last 3 years vs. the Rangers as they have 70 AB a .357 average and 1.101 OPS against them.

2* bonus play

Rangers -138 (3* play)
Last visit to Texas Shields gave up 7 ER and the Rangers continue to hit and are ranked #3 in OPS vs. RHP with a .835 while the Rays can hit lefties for power they struggle getting on base so this position is a good situation to be in especially since the Rays are 7-19 in their last 26 as a dog +110 to +150. The biggest difference is the bullpen as the Rays are 6.46 on the season and the Rangers are 2.06.

Marlins -126 (2.5*)
Marlins just had a rough road trip but they return home where I think they could get some momentum because of who they are facing in Joe Saunders. Saunders off to a great start with a 1.29 ERA has a 3.59 XFIP which means he's pitching better than he should. Against the Marlins he's been just awful giving up 9 ER in 12 IP a year ago and the Marlins have a .406 average and 1.215 OPS in 64AB. The starters are 17-36 off Saunders with the exception of Hanley Ramirez who has 0 AB and John Buck (back of lineup) Zambrano takes the ball and he's pitching well despite being 0-3 with a 0.95 WHIP and a 2.84 ERA. Dbacks have 87 AB .172 average and .507 OPS vs. Zambrano and it really hurts them that they are still without Davis.

Orioles -119 (4.5* MLB POD)
Orioles are off to a great start again and I'm loving them in this match up with Arieta making the start. Arieta has a 2.63 ERA in 2 home starts and now he goes up against the Oakland A's who are last in the league in runs scored and 30th with a .582 OPS vs. RHP. Baltimore also has a solid bullpen behind him with a 1.96 ERA on the year better than the A's 2.35. Arieta has improved his walk numbers and his HR/9 although it's early I think both of those will continue here today against the A's who have just 17 AB against Arieta.

Brandon McCarthy already making his 6th start has a 4.00 ERA, but much like previous years most of that success is in Oakland where the ballpark is just different. He posted a 4.73 ERA over the last 3 years on the road compared to his under 3 ERA at home. He's got 3 starts vs. Baltimore over the last 3 years for a 5.82 ERA. 17 IP and 30 BR and 4HR are not good stats and he was worse in his lone start at Camden Yards posting a 7.20 ERA. Baltimore has 59 AB a .322 average and .879 OPS vs. McCarthy. O's are 10th in OPS at home posting a .768 and they go up against an A's team hitting just .212 on the road vs. RHP.

[b]RED SOX +118 5* MLB POD[/b]
Humber is coming off a perfect game and to me that usually means a hang over. There are 3 active pitchers that have thrown a perfect game Dallas Braden, Roy Halladay, and Mark Buehlre each were not nearly as effective in their next start. Buehlre gave up 5 ER in 6IP, Halladay 10 hits in 7 innings against the Padres and Braden gave up 4ER.

Humber has something else going on as well as his wife is expecting he actually had to leave Oakland because of this and he's still expected to pitch on Thursday night, but we will be on the hot hitting Red Sox either way and I tell you why. First of all they are red hot hitting .337 and scoring 6.47 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5 games while the White Sox will face a lefty and are 25th in OPS vs. lhp on the year and are hitting .154 over the last 5 games. Humber does not have a good history vs. the Red Sox and the White Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 home games with him on mound. he has a 5.84 ERA vs. the Sox. What is different for Humber? He threw his slider (a pitch he's developed) almost as much as his fast ball this year. That will work against the Mariners who are ranked bottom of the league vs. the Pitch but the Red Sox are #1 in hitting vs. that pitch and were #4 a year ago. Boston is also #2 in OPS this year vs. RHP with a .836, Humber faced the mariners in a friendly park as the Mariners are ranked 27th in OPS vs. RHP.

on the other side the Red Sox will start Felix Doubrant who has actually been pretty good posting a 2.92 xFIP as he's got 11.25 K/9 and he's faced tough competition facing the Yankees, Rays, Toronto ranked 2, 7, and 12th in OPS vs. LHP. Today he gets to face the White Sox who are ranked 25th posting a .188 average vs. LHP this year.

eds -128 4.5* MLB POD It took a blown call at home plate, a blown save and an error for us to lose our POD yesterday with the Cardinals, but we return today with the Reds and I'm confident we are on the right side. Arroyo is off to a fast start with a 2.91 ERA and over his last 6 starts vs. the Giants he posts a 1.81 ERA. The Reds go up against Barry Zito who they have plenty of success against. in fact they have 111 AB .333 average and a 1.002 OPS vs. Zito who has not pitched well on the road overall nonetheless he's 0-2 in his last 5 with a 7.20 ERA in Cinci. Zito too is off to a great start but he has faced some bad hitting teams and though the Reds are 15th in OPS vs. lhp thus far they were 4th in the league last year with a .794. Reds are hot with the bats right now scoring 25 runs over their last 3 games and. At home this year they are hitting .358 vs. LHP and the Giants have a 5.34 ERA out of their bullpen on the road while the Reds bullpen has been decent. Reds are 15-5 in their last 20 as a home favorite and Bruce/Phillips/Subbs have been dominant vs. Zito who is out performing his abilities as his xFIP 4.60 confirms his 1.71 era is only early luck.

Cardinals -131 4.5* MLB POD
I love the Cardinals here today despite Wainwright's early struggles and getting hit hard by this very Cubs team a week ago I"m backing him this time in my play of the day and I'll tell you why. Wainwright looked solid all spring so there is no reason to think he's not 100%. Also his xFIP is actually 3.13 as he has 9.22 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9. He's been pretty unlucky with a .325 BABIP and 46.7% LOB. Wainwright has dominated the Cubs in the past 2.65 ERA over his last 8 and a 2.67 ERA at Wrigley over the last 3 seasons. The cubs are 25th in OPS vs. RHP and 24th in home OPS. While the Cardinals are still dangerous offensively with or without Berkman ranking 5th in OPS vs. RHP and 4th with a .786 OPS on the road. Theya re 36-15 in their last 51 vs. RH starter and 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a starter wtih a WHIP > 1.30. Jeff Samardzija has been a reliever in past seasons and in his career he has 18 IP with a 7.50 ERA vs. the Cardinals who he owns a 2.44 WHIP against. Cardinals hitters have 65AB a .369 average .461 OBP and a .876 OPS. Cubs are also 7-19 in their last 26 as an under dog.

I remember like it was yesterday. I'm talking about Jose Reyes last appearance as a Met as he cowardly took himself out of the last game of the season after his first hit so he could just about guarantee himself the batting title. I knew that was the last time we would see Reyes as a Met and it was almost bitter sweet because that was the highlight of his career here as the Mets never did anything in the post season. So who will get the last laugh when all is said and done? I'm not sure, but I do know the Mets will honor Reyes with a video tribute tomorrow night which has stirred some controversy. I actually like the Mets to be fired up for this game and I think Johan will throw a gem.

Mets & Santana +104 (2* FREE PLAY)
Johan is coming off a terrible start on the road against the Braves only throwing 55 pitches and he's also on 6 days rest which to me means he should be able to pitch deep into the game instead of his average 5 IP at home where he's posted a 0.90 ERA this season in 2 starts. Santana has actually been better vs. the Marlins than Josh Johnson has been vs. the Mets and I'll give you the scoop. First of all Santana will go up against a struggling Marlins offense that is 22nd vs. LHP in OPS with a .621 OPS. They are actually hitting .194 vs. LHP this year and .161 over their last 5 games.Santana has a 1.00 ERA over the last 3 years vs. the Marlins in 4 starts and the Marlins have a combined 121 AB with a .207 average and measley .476 OPS. Marlins will continue to struggle as they are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a LH starter.

Josh Johnson is 9-2 in his last 11 starts vs. the Mets, but he's got a 5.94 ERA to start the year and the Mets have actually hit him better of late especially at home where he posts a 4.18 ERA over his last 5 visits to Citi Field. Mets have 84 AB, with a .262 average and a .786 OPS. Mets thus far hit .265 with 4.15 runs per 9 vs. RHP this year which is nothing great but its certainly better than what the Marlins are doing against lefties. Marlins are also 16-43 in their last 59 vs. a winning team.


Notable Hot Starters:
Tom Milone (2.84 ERA in 3GS LAA/SEA/KC)
Matt Cain (1.88 ERA in 3GS ARI/PHI/PIT)
Vance Worley (2.37 ERA in 3GS NYM/PIT/SD)
Gio Gonzalez (2.04 ERA in 3GS CHC/CIN/HOU)
Mike Minor (3.10 ERA in 3GS (AZ/MIL/NYM)


Cold Starter Of The Day:
The cold starter of the day who has the best shot at winning on Tuesday for me has to be Adam Wainwright who is posting a 9.88 ERA through his first 3 starts vs. the Cubs, Reds, and Brewers. Wainwright will face the Cubs at Wrigley field two situations he's enjoyed great success. Wainwright also had an excellent spring so I think his slow start is more coincidence than him not being the same pitcher. He has a 2.65 ERA in 8 starts vs. the Cubs and a 2.67 ERA at Wrigley Field.

Notable Cold Starters:
Juan Nicasio (6.19 ERA in 3GS AZ/HOU/SD)
Matt Latos (8.22 ERA in 3GS MIA/STL/WSH)
Randy Wolf (8.80 ERA in 3GS ATL/LAD/STL)
Clayton Richard (5.89 ERA in 3GS COL/ LAD 2*)
Aaron Harrang (5.40 ERA in 3GS MIL/SD 2*)
Max Scherzer (7.90 ERA in 3GS KC/CHW/BOS)
Tommy Hunter (5.79 ERA in 3GS CHW/MIN/TOR)