Cardinals -156 5* MLB POD
The Dodgers got lucky when Don Mattingly made a bold move starting Clayton Kershaw on 3 days rest for the first time in his career as they had to come from behind and win. Mike Matheny did not panic and push up Wainwright's start instead he started a rookie in Michael Wacha on the road and that's where this series turned around, because now the Cardinals have Wainwright on 5 days rest at home in a decision game. You really have to dive into the stats to realize how good Wainwright has been. First of all you can ignore his struggles that came last year against Pittsburgh as Wainwright clearly was not himself coming off Tommy John. This year in 3 home starts he is 3-0 with 23K's 5BB's with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. He's had dominating stuff at home all year long and on 5 days rest he has a 1.50 ERA at home averaging 8 innings pitched over 6 starts. In 11 starts this year on extra rest he has a 1.67 ERA. His cutter and curve ball are just that much better on extra rest and when you look at his last two home starts against the Pirates they managed 0% line drives and 5.6% line drives. That is flat out dominating.

Gerrit Cole is going to be a star in this league, but this just is not the best spot for him. First of all Cole has great numbers on the road and we thank him for that otherwise this spread would be -200. Cole however, has not faced a top 10 team in OPS vs. RHP in any of his road starts and has only faced two all year in Colorado (5.1/3ER) and Oakland (7/2ER). He throws his average 96mph fastball 65% of the time but the Cardinals rarely swing and miss and are #1 in line drive %. This is a gritty Cardinals offense that after seeing Cole already in the series should be able to get to him. Cole has a tERA of 3.79 and opponents have a 24.8% line drive rate. He's pitching on the road against a storied franchise with the weight of the Pirates history of struggles on his back. In the end the Cardinals have the better starter on the bump, the better offense to support him, the home field advantage, and I would say at this point the bullpen is even. I only say that because it's all hands on deck in the post season so you only see the cream of the crop and the Cardinals have some great arms out there. This is a premium price to pay for a game, but I can't help it I like the Cardinals that much here.

[b]Red Sox -113 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Red Sox lost a tough one and I'll back them tonight as I'll be playing them for the first time in this series. I'll go through the pitching match ups but this play is being made mostly on how this Red Sox offense handles itself. They are by far the best hitting team right now and everyone in this club house loves each other. Now they'll face Jeremy Hellickson who has had their number, but really struggled down the stretch posting a 7.82 ERA. Hellickson really has struggled to go deep into games in the situation he is in tonight which is a playoff atmosphere and on an unordinary amount of extra rest. Hellickson won't be sharp like he has to be against this Red Sox team that is led by David Ortiz who is 9-24 off Hellickson and 4-9 in the series with 2 HR. Hellickson also posted a 4.77 ERA at home and a 5.55 ERA at night in over 130 innings this year. Hellickson will likely be bounced form this game early and the Rays bullpen has not been dominant. Hellickson has not shown the poise to get out of jams all year only stranding 66% runners on base in this year. The league average is around 74%.

Jake Peavy on the other hand has performed very well this season when he's been on 6 or more days of rest and over his last three starts vs. the Rays has very good numbers allowing only 14 hits in 20 innings sporting a 1.05 WHIP. Ben Zoborist has hit him 4-13, but is struggling, 2-11 in the series. Evan Longoria is 3-15 against Peavy and 2-9 in the series. Delmon Young, Dejesus, Jennings, Joyce, Escobar, and Molina are a combined 9-65 against Peavy for an average of .138. Peavy is backed by a much better offense right now and a team that does not want a game 5. Boston overall has scored 1.55 more runs per 9 vs. RHP on the season, 1.31 more for home/away splits and over their last 5 are scoring 11.21 runs per 9, and their last 10 8.65. Peavy's struggles have been against James Loney who is not someone who can change the game with one swing with only 13 HR on the year while Hellickson struggles have come against Ortiz who had 30 HR (23 vs. RHP) and a ridiculous 1.092 OPS vs. RHP. I see Hellickson going 4-5 innings allowing 3-4 ER while Peavy goes 6 allowing 2-3. Boston's bullpen has been better when you look at their last 3 appearances each and I think they will be able to get by with a win here.

Cardinals -110 5.5* MLB POD
It seems like just yesterday I was facing Charlie Morton in high school baseball and now he

[b]Dodgers -137 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Braves had a losing record on the road this season and Julio Teheran makes his first start against the Dodgers. He's got a 3.38 ERA on the road but has given up 4 runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. Dodgers may take an inning or two to adjust to Teheran, but I think they can make him work and bounce him out of this game early. Teheran's tERA is 4.03 and he's allowing 3% more line drives than the Dodgers starter Ryu. Dodgers are are also hitting the ball hard 24.4% line drive rate over the last 7 days compared to 20.7% for the Braves.

Ryu is another under rated pitcher as he posts a 2.33 ERA at home and a 2.44 ERA at night. The Braves saw him twice and struggled as he posted an ERA under 3 against them, but was flat out dominant on extra rest at home pitching 7.2 innings and allowing 1 ER against the Braves earlier this season. He's got a 1.51 ERA at home this year when he made a start on extra rest where he does tonight. Ryu has a good fast ball change up with good control and gets more ground balls while Teheran is more prone to the home run ball that could easily change this game. Both bullpens have been nasty, but the Dodgers have pitched better down the stretch and are fresher in game 3. I think the Dodgers win a close one on Sunday night.

Athletics +115 5* MLB POD Despite winning last night which we predicted on our POD, the Tigers are in major trouble. Miguel Cabrera is a shell of himself. Yes he can still hit better than 90% of guys that would replace him, but he should be DH'ng. I saw two plays last night and I'm sure there were more. One was a pop fly off the third base line that Cabrera trotted to catch and was 10 ft away. It was a play that 99% of third basemen would make and that kept the at bat alive. It did not come back to hurt them, but the A's is not a team you want to give extra pitches. Cabrera's injury has really pulled this offense down and it's amazing to realize just how good he is. The offense is scoring just 1.37 runs per 9 over their last 5 and they face a very dangerous pitcher here today in Sonny Gray. Gray could be an All Star next year and posts a 1.99 ERA over 40.2 IP at home with a 0.93 WHIP. He has some poise and good control for a young pitcher and he's striking out more than 9 guys per 9 to go along with his average 93 mph pitch with a nasty curve on the back side. He'll go toe to toe with Justin Verlander who most people will back because of his pedigree.

Verlander did not have a good year this year with a 1.46 WHIP and 4.64 ERA during night starts. His control was all over the place in some starts and while he's still capable of throwing a complete game shut out the A's are a very good hitting team and I expect them to rebound from last night. In 2 starts vs. Oakland this year Verlander has only gone 11 inning given up 13 BR and 4ER. Donaldson, Crisp and Cespedes all have good numbers against him and Oakland is 64-27 in their last 91 home games vs. RH starter.

Tigers -122 4.5* MLB POD This is about the time of the year where the A's luck runs out. Although I think they are a dangerous team to face this post season they just run into the wrong match up. Tigers staff is full of RH power pitchers which is something the A's have not hit well. Max Scherzer has been flat out dominant with over 10K's per 9 and 21 wins. He's got a 2.28 ERA in 16 road starts where he's been even better than home as opponents have a ridiculous .177 batting average against him. Scherzer is absolutely the type of pitcher that can dominate in the post season with a great fast ball and good control with his slider and change up. Bartolo Colon on the other hand has been lucky all season it seems. His xERA has gone up every month of the season, but his ERA keeps getting lucky. This fatty has basically one pitch that he throws 85% of the time and it's a fast ball. The Tigers were #3 in fast ball value this year and have a .871 OPS against Colon over 187 career at bats. They have faced Colon 3 times over the last year and a half and have 24 hits in 14.1 innings pitched producing 11 ER. Colon has been living on a prayer for most of this seasona nd I can't see him pitching well in this spot against a Tigers line up that can hit. Scherzer has an extra 2 days rest here and is 39-13 in his last 52 starts.

Dodgers -138 4.5* MLB POD Clayton Kershaw really needs no introduction here, but his 2.14 ERA on the road does. Atlanta has just 1 HR in Kershaw's 4 starts against them, but they have not seen him since 2011. Kershaw has really polished his skills since then and is baseball's most dominant pitcher. The Braves look like their offense is major trouble and they look like they are in panic by leaving Dan Uggla off the roster. Atlanta strikes out far too much and relies on the home run ball. They actually have a losing record when they don't hit a home run. Kershaw is allowing 0.46 HR/9 and 5.8% HR per fly ball. The Dodgers bullpen has been outstanding down the stretch and when you look at the numbers they have been better than the Braves. We are getting value because Kris Medlen was nasty down the stretch with a 0.40 ERA over his final 3 starts, but he's been facing off against cupcakes. Over his last 5 starts he's faced the Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Marlins and Mets. People forget Medlen was having a down year before his end of year domination. I don't trust pitchers like Medlen in the playoffs and I still don't against the Dodgers. He's allowed 24.1 LD% this season compared with 18.5% last year and his tERA is 4.35 compared with Kershaw at 2.86. Thought the Dodgers are without Ethier and Kemp they still have Puig, Ramirez and Gonzalez which are enough to get them a win in game 1.

Rays -113 5.5* MLB POD
This is where the Rays show off their dominating starting pitching. We were on the wrong side of their first game and now I feel they have all the momentum. It also helps that this team has been playing their last few series like every pitch matters because they were going against tough competition (Rangers/Jays/Yankees/Orioles) while the Indians won their last 10 straight it was against (Twins/White Sox/Astrons and WhiteSox). The Indians have not played a playoff team since August and lost 5 of 6 to Detroit and Atlanta. They have not faced one at home since August 1st when they got swept by the Tigers in 4 games. Indians were very lucky to have an easy schedule down the stretch and they lost 4 of 6 to the Royals another team in the playoff hunt. Facing the Rays is going to be a huge step up in competition. The Indians overall are 7-14 at home vs. playoff teams this year including 1-2 vs. the Rays.

The Rays will send Alex Cobb to the mound who has very good raw numbers including a 3.02 xFIP. His 2.70 ERA on the road and 2.70 ERA at night indicate he can handle this type of pressure. In 3 career starts vs. the Indians he has a 2.69 ERA and has held them to a .230 average and a .607 OPS. Cobb was flat out dominant down the stretch against teams going for the wild card posting a 1.16 ERA while striking out 26 batters and walking only 5 against the Yankees, Orioles, and Rangers. He has a 2.41 ERA in 9 post AS starts and only 140 innings on his arm this season. On 5 days rest he should be fresh and ready to go tonight.

On the flip side the Indians also send out a young pitcher in Danny Salazar who has some of the best raw numbers our there. The guy has been great and has averaged over 96mph on his fast ball. I think those are the reasons we are getting such great value on this play, but Salazar is just a 23 year old rookie who likes to over throw. I don't think he can control his emotions in this setting and he's already given up 7 HR in 52 IP this year despite his skills. There is enough time and tape out there for the Rays hitters to get a good idea on what Salazar will do tonight. Teams have hit Salazar of late (6runs last 2 starts) and I think he's benefited from an easy schedule too. Cleveland is finally getting a major step up in competition something they have not seen in over a month. It will be different when the opponent actually tries to beat you and the Rays are very good at this.

[b]Rangers +107 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Rangers needed 7 straight victories just to force this game and a little help along the way which they got from the Blue Jays as the Rays barely got by yesterday and lost 2 of three in Toronto. Now they have to travel to Texas to play the next day against a tough lefty. The Rays have a losing record on the road overall and an 11-13 vs. LH starters. Texas meanwhile is 16-5 at home over their last 21 vs. a team with a losing road record. They are also 31-19 this season vs. LH starter and are scoring 6.86 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP while Tampa has struggled at just 3.65.

David Price still gets to be favored because of his name and pedigree and that I can not argue with, but everything else tells me the Rangers are the play and being under dogs gives us value. Price has not pitched well in Texas over his career and the Texas hitters have hit him hard in 129 AB they have a .929 OPS. Price has actually struggled more than you think down the stretch and has not been Cy Young type. Now he could come in and dominate, but I think the Rangers just have an edge here with Martin Perez on the mound backed by an elite bullpen.

The Rays have never seen Perez pitch and he's been good down the stretch and has a 3.18 ERA at home this season. The bullpen for the Rangers has been outstanding with a 1.76 ERA over their last 10 games combined, but more importantly they have more talent and a 1.80 ERA over their last 3 appearances for each reliever combined. Tampa L3 combined has a 4.84 ERA and a 4.44 ERA overall on the road. The bullpen will be what eventually decides this game and the fact that Texas hitters are on a roll right now and have success against David Price and are under dogs leaves me no choice but to back the Rangers tonight.

[b]Yankees -165 5.5* MAX MLB POD[/b]
Most teams do not have anything to play for but the Yankees do and the offense really owes Andy Pettitte after he pitched 7 innings allowing just 2 ER in his last start at Yankee Stadium. How fitting is this he now pitches at Houston just 30 miles down the road from where he grew up. He'll have plenty of family and friends in the building and the Yankees offense really owes him to get his 11th win to go 11-11. Pettitte has pitched like an ace down the stretch posting a 2.09 ERA over his last 8 starts and the Astros have clearly hung it up a while ago scoring just 1.63 runs per 9 over their last 10 games combined. Paul Clemens starts for Houston but has a 5.56 tERA and a 6.10 ERA at home.

Red Sox -122 3.5* MLB POD Boston can basically win one game and clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs and I think they'd rather get it done sooner than later. Tonight they throw out their regular starting line up to face Scott Feldman who has been great since the All Star break, but his 4.44 ERA at home and 4.02 ERA at night and the fact the the Red Sox have a .340 average in 103 AB with a .984 OPS leads me to believe that the Red Sox hold some value here in this spot. Clay Bucholz has been slowly getting back into it and he's had a ton of success vs. the Orioles of late giving up just 3 ER in 24 innings over his last three starts. Bucholz is on 5 days rest here and the Orioles are hitting just .184 scoring 2.61 runs per 9 over their last 10. Meanwhile the Red Sox are scoring 5.54 during that same time frame. Boston over the last 2 weeks is #1 in LD% while the Orioles are 30th which is usually a clearer indication on how a team is hitting. I look for the Red Sox to come out and score some runs and their back end to shut down the Orioles in the process while the A's lose later to King Felix.

[b]Angels +162 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Angels have quietly come on strong to finish the year and I think they'll be motivated to treat this last 4 game series like their playoff game. They are trying to finish at .500 or better which means taking 3 of 4 from the Rangers and in the process forcing them out of the playoffs as the Rangers trail Tampa by 2 games and Cleveland by 1 game. The Angels have gone 16-5 in their last 21 road games and the Rangers have struggled to beat average teams never mind good teams like the Angels who are playing like a playoff team the last month or so.

Jerome Williams will take the mound who always gives the Angels a shot to win. He won't blow you away but he's pitched well against Texas and the Rangers really have not been killing the ball. Rangers are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. RH starters and if they weren't lucky to see Houston come to town they could have been out of it already. Matt Garza takes the mound for the Rangers and he's been sketchy at home and he is coming off a very good outing so I'll fade him here against the Angels who are hitting the ball thanks to Josh Hamilton finishing strong. Howie Kendrick back in the line up also helps as he's 6-9 vs. Garza while Trout is 3-7. Garza has a 5.31 ERA vs. the Angels this year and I think this is great value on the Angels side as the Rangers are over priced just because they "NEED TO WIN"

Rays -164 5.5* MAX POD
Sometimes you have to over pay to get a winning play and at this point in the season the lines are slim picking. The Rays were my POD last night and again tonight. The Rays played a deflated Yankee team tonight and I don't see how they can get back up as they have all been eliminated from post season. This team has to be mentally tired and now they have to face David Price who in 409 AB against the Yankees hitters has posted a .690 OPS which is quite good when you consider the amount of HR the Yankees hit, but the active line up has done significantly less against Price. Price also is only allowing 33% fly balls and 8.8% HR/FB. Which is good compared with Phil Hughes 46.6% and 11.3% HR/FB ratio.

Hughes is a must fade at Yankee Stadium and he has poor numbers vs. the Rays in 161 AB they have a .879 OPS. Hughes has an ERA over 6 at home and post AS break. Joe Girardi who I think is one of the best managers in the majors has worn his bullpen out by going to them too early over the last month. This bullpen is not up to the task to take over for Hughes in the 4th or 5th inning and I don't see Price giving up the runs tonight to the flat Yankees.

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Rays -108 4.5* MLB POD Kuroda on 4 days rest is an instant fade here as I've been tracking it all season. Kuroda has not been good in the second half unless he's been fully rested and even then he's been a shadow of his dominant self from the first half where he posted a 2.65 ERA. Since the All Star game he has a 3.97 ERA. He has an ERA under 2 at home, but on 4 days rest it's singificantly higher and in 4 career starts vs. the Rays he posts a 7.22 ERA with all 4 being non quality. Kuroda has only had 7 total starts where he's given up 4 or more ER and 5 of those 7 came on 4 days rest. He's had 4 starts all year where he did not pitch 6 full innings and all 4 of those came on 4 days rest. I don't see him going deep into this game and the Yankees bullpen has struggled of late posting a 5.16 ERA. Pretty much everyone has been struggling except Mariano Rivera. I also thinks it helps the Rays that the Yankees just came off an emotional loss on Sunday on Mariano day and they are pretty much out of this race and the Rays would like to officially end it here tonight. Matt Moore menawhile has not pitched well of late either but he's at least backed by a bullpen getting outs. Moore also has pitched extremely well on the road posting a 2.76 ERA over 14 starts this year. He's held the Yankee hitters in check over 160 AB they have a .250 average and a .689 OPS. The Rays have a .325 average and a 1.002 OPS in 117 AB vs. Kuroda.

Angels -140 2* Late Night Fix I'm expecting a hang over here for the A's after clinching the division yesterday. There is bound to be a little less concentration and a little hang over here while the Angels are fighting to finish over .500 which they need to go 4-3 to do so. This is a great opportunity for them to get a win as they are 21-8 in their last 29 and Garrett Richards has been great posting a 2.48 ERA over his last 6 starts. Oakland sends Tommy Milone to the mound who has been average on the road and Josh Hamilton is 7-17 with 2 HR and has finally been hitting in September. Kendrick and Aybar also have big numbers vs. Milone.

[b]Marlins -110 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
Roy Halladay is still getting credit which is shocking considering he posts a 6.47 ERA at night and an 8.55 ERA on the road overall it's been a disaster this year for Halladay and the Phillies who just finished up their homestand on Sunday before flying to Miami for what will more likely be a mini vacation this time of year. The Marlins got plenty of people in the line up that are trying to impress the franchise for playing time this year and next season. They also put out one of their up and coming starters in Nathan Eovaldi who averages 96+mph on his fast ball and has a nasty slider to go with it. Eovaldi has had a qaulity start in 75% of his outings this year and faces a Phillies team that is hitting .247 with 3.25 runs per 9 on the road. The Marlins have the advantage on the mound especially since the Phillies are ranked 23rd and 19th in pitch value vs. fast ball and slider. Marlins also have the advantage in their bullpen and motivation to get the win. Phillies are also 7-19 in their last 26 as a road dog and have been a poor road team all year long.

Yankees -138 2.5* bonus[/b]
This seems very fitting on Mariano day that Andy Pettitte would be starting the game. The 41 year old also called it quits after this season so it will be his last start at Yankee Stadium after an incredible career. There will be a lot of emotion and along with the Yankees fighting for their lives to make the playoffs. Pettitte isn't just a 41 year old he competes and has pitched well. He posts a 3.30 ERA post All-Star break over 12 starts and faces a Giants team that seems like they've checked out. This is a day game too and I'm sure a few of these players on the Giants side enjoyed the city last night. I don't expect their concentration will all be there in this game. On the flip side you the Yankees go up against Yusmeiro Petit who in his career is a fly ball pitcher. He's giving up a lot of line drives and only getting 35% GB's so far this year. In his career he's got a 1.69 HR/9 and those stats will only get worse at Yankee Stadium.

Cardinals -137 5.5* MLB POD Cardinals are in relentless pursuit of the NL East title after a 15 inning loss on Thursday they come back with a 7-6 win on Friday and I look for them to continue that here on Saturday against a Brewers team that is not good enough to keep up with the Cardinals. The match up clearly favors the Cardinals with Yovani Gallardo on the mount as every Cardinals hitter has a .300 average except Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina who actually combine for 5 HR in around 60 AB while posting a 1.022 and .991 OPS. The Cardinals have dominated RHP all year long at home or on the road with over 5 runs per 9 while the Brewers have struggled scoring just 3.75. Cardinals have 170 combined at bats with a .306 average and a .951 OPS with 12 HR against Gallardo who is on extra rest. The fact that Gallardo is on 5 days rest is giving us value because he has a very good record when he's on 5 ore more days rest, but he's faced the Cardinals twice this year both on 5 days rest and gave up 9 ER in just 11.1 IP. He's got a 9.50 ERA and has lost 8 of his last 9 vs. the Cardinals and posts a 5.20 ERA at home on 5 or more days rest. Lance LYnn comes into this start and he's 23-9 in his last 32 vs. NL Central opponents. That tells me that the Cardinals are just one step ahead of their division and have a great game plan and scouting report. I would expect nothing less from Mike Matheny who called a good game when he was a catcher all those years. Gallardo posts a 2.93 ERA in his 5 starts vs. the Brewers who did put up 6 runs last night but 5 of the 6 came from Aramis Ramirez who is 2-16 against Lynn. The bullpens on the season are a wash but the Cardinals have an advantage of late posting a 3.10 ERA in their last 3 combined for available pitchers while the Brewers post a 4.24 ERA. You can't convince all these Brewers players that this game means anything. It's not like they can knock the Cardinals out of the playoffs they are already going.

Royals -128 4* MLB POD Despite taking 2 of three from the Rays the Rangers have put themselves in an interesting position. They have been so bad down the stretch that I wouldn't be shocked if they get swept here. I don't think they are playing better I think the Rays were just playing worse and they got to face a team with a poor bullpen something that won't happen in this series. The Royals bullpen has been outstanding and should be able to keep themselves in all three games and win if they have the lead as they have a 2.25 ERA in their last 10 games alone. The Starters - Martin Perez makes his 2nd start on 4 days rest for just the second time this year. Perez only went 5 innings the last time he did it giving up 5 ER. He's got a 4.04 ERA on the road and his last two starts he's allowed 16 hits in 11.1 innings showing signs of his age. Perez may get through the line up the first time but I expect the Royals who know they need this game being 3 games out to make the necessary adjustments the second time through. The Royals meanwhile send Ervin Santana to the mound who has been terrific this season. He's got a 3.42 ERA at home and a 2.96 ERA at night. We are getting great value here because Santana has struggled vs. the Rangers in the past, but a more detailed look and you realize it was against the old Rangers team and on the road. His biggest issue was the long ball, but he comes into this game on 5 days rest where he has never allowed more than 1 HR in a start, over 12 starts this season. In fact he's only allowed 5 total home runs and he's had a quality start in every start on 5 days rest posting a 2.24 ERA overall and 1.95 at home. The one guy in the line up that has truly hit Santana hard is Kinsler who leads off and is not the same hitter that can carry an offense. Kinsler is also hitting just .267 over the last 7 days and .263 on the road this year. I expect the Royals to win tonight and continue to make the AL Wild card an interesting race.

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Yankees -123 1.5* FREE PLAY
Yankees won a big game last night and the offense seemed to have turned the corner a bit with 4 runs in an inning. Sending Hiroki Kuroda to the mound on extra rest has done wonders for them and that's why I'm backing the Yankees tonight. When Kuroda is on 4 days rest he's simply average, but when he's on 5 days rest which he's been 14 times this year he posts a 2.25 ERA with 12 of 14 quality starts. I'll back him against a depleted Blue Jays line up as the Yankees have won 35 of the last 51 meetings.

Cardinals -163 4* MLB POD The Cardinals are in a dog fight right now for the division with the Reds and Pirates, but this team has been here before. With a couple of tough series on the horizon I believe they get it done here this afternoon where they are 30-15 in day games this year. The Rockies send Roy Oswalt to the mound who has been horrible and the veteran leadership of the Cardinals have had success against him. Beltran, Molina, Holliday are a combined 25-77 for a .325 average and there are plenty of other left handed bats in this line up to do damage against Oswalt who has gotten killed allowing a .997 OPS vs. LHB and has a 29.3% line drive percentage on the season. He's relied on getting some swings outside the zone to get by but the Cardinals are not the agressive type and should be able to score a ton of runs on Oswalt. On the flip side MIchael Wacha has been great allowing just 14.5% line drives on the year and a 2.84 tERA. The Cards are 17-6 in the last 23 meetings as well as 38-14 in their last 52 road games as a favorite -151-200. While the Rockies are 19-41 in their last 60 games as an underdog. Pay the juice and take the Cardinals.

Nationals -105 2.5* Showdown play
What a story these Nationals are right now winning 21 of their last 27 games. Sometimes you just get confidence and their is no stopping you and I can't help but back them once again as the Braves batts have gone quite being shut out in 2 of their last 3 games and hitting .205 with just 2.69 runs per 9 over their last 10. The Nationals meanwhile 6.41 runs per 9 vs. LHP and their bullpen is dominating. Alex Wood should not be a road favorite despite is early season success. He's a mid rotation guy that is finally getting around the league with 70 innings this season. He's been allowing 2+ guys on base per inning over his last 4 starts and has not made it out of the 5th inning in his last two against struggling offenses (Phillies and Marlins). Ross OHlendorf has pitched well at home with a 2.86 ERA over 34.2 IP and the Nationals should win this game and the price is right.

Yankees +100 4* MLB POD
Joe Giradi really does not get enough credit for what he's done with this team and he's doing it again. Starting Phil Hughes on the road instead of putting him out there at home where he's been just awful. Phil Hughes is also getting the hook early in games because Giradi knows he struggles the third time through an order. I think Hughes throws another gem in short as he is facing a Blue Jays team that just placed Encarnacion on the DL and is already without Cabrera and Bautista which significantly weakens the pop int he line up for the Blue Jays. Hughes should get out of his own way and won't allow a ton of HR's that have hurt him more than anything and give the Yankees a great shot to win.

Yankees offense has struggled over their 4 game losing streak, but they had to face 4 really good pitchers in the trio from Boston and then R.A. Dickey. Now getting to face J.A. Happ will certainly help this team that has hit him hard. Happ's three starts this season against the Yankees he's allowed 12 ER in 16 innings while allowing 27 base runners. Happ has walked nearly 5 guys per 9 and the Yankees typically are a patient group that won't panic and will work themselves into hitting accounts which is something they can do tonight against Happ. Yankees are 35-17 in their last 52 meetings with the Blue Jays and should work themselves back into contention with winning the final games of this series.

Nationals -134 4* MLB POD The Nationals are climbing back into the Wild Card race and nobody ever expected it. They are red hot and won their day game here today int he bottom of the 9th inning in walk off fashion. That should carry into tonight as this teams know they have to keep on winning. We've seen this in the past a team gets on a run at the end of the season and it seems like there is nothing stopping them and Freddy Garcia certainly is not going to be what does. Garcia is a washed up 37 year old who has just two pitches and both are below average. Garcia has a 7.15 tERA on the season of 66 IP with two teams and he's really just filling in for the Braves here as they look to stay fresh for their post season run. Tanner Roark on the other hand has pitched extremely well since being called up and the Braves have seen him in relief where he has allowed 2 hits to 16 batters. Roark in AAA had great control and did not allow home runs which is something the Braves survive on. Roark has yet to give up a HR in the big leagues over 34.2 IP and he's got great control and maturity. Braves likely will rest some guys in game 2 as they have already made the playoffs meanwhile the Nationals are all hands on deck and should take this one while we get a decent price at -134 it's worth a play of the day.

Athletics -134 2* bonus The Angels have played spoiler this past month, but the A's are not just a playoff team they seem like the best team in the American League the way they have taken care of the AL West of late just dominating the Rangers in two series. Athletics have scored over 6 runs per 9 in their last 10 with a .312 average vs. LHP which they'll face tonight in CJ Wilson. Wilson is making his 4th start on 4 days rest and we have seen signs of him tiring. Either way on the road he is not good to go deep into games and that's where I like the A's chances against the Angels bullpen. Wilson has made 4 starts on the road vs. the top 5 hitting teams in terms of OPS vs. LHP and he posts a 7.45 ERA and has not gotten to the 6th inning. The A's are ranked 3rd and are on fire right now. Meanwhile Jarrod Parker will take the mound on 5 days rest for his second start in a row. He has really turned things around and posts a 2.09 ERA at home on 5 days rest and there are some fabulous hitting teams he's done it against including the Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox, and Royals. He posts a 2.90 ERA over his last 10 starts and should keep his team in this game if nothing else.

Cardinals -155 4* MLB POD
The Cardinals are still in a fight right now with the Pirates for the division so every game matters here as they face off against the Rockies after they busted out for 19 hits on Sunday. I think the Cardinals bats stay hot as they put 5 left handed batters in the line up to face the RHP Collin McHugh. McHugh has been awful in 6 career starts posting an 8.64 ERA. He has 3+ BB/9 2+HR/9 and less then 6K/9 over 33 innings in the majors. Lefties this season have a 1.318 OPS against him and as I mentioned he'll face 5 of them. The Cardinals actually faced McHugh before so they have a bit of experience against him. I don't anticipate him going deep into this game which means the Rockies will have to turn to their bullpen which has failed them many times this season including over their last 10 games where they have a 7.43 ERA.

The Cardinals on the other hand have pitched well with a 2.83 BP ERA in road games while they have also hit RHP hard on the road with more than 5 runs per 9. Lance Lynn will also take the mound and has decent numbers against the Rockies in two starts, but also comes into this game not having to face Dexter Fowler or Carlos Gonzalez which is huge because they are 4-9 against him. Troy Tulowitski is in the line up but he struggles against pitchers who have good command and throw hard and that's what Lynn possesses with an average fastball of over 92mph on the season. I could be wrong and Lynn could give up 5 ER, but even then I'm confident the Cardinals should be able to put up more against the Rockies bullpen so that's why I'm taking them as they will manage this like a playoff game. Lynn is also 24-11 in his last 35 vs. a losing team.

[b]Phillies +137 3* MLB POD[/b]
I love this spot for the Phillies as Gio Gonzalez has come off a complete game 1 hit shutout, but carried a no hitter late into the game. I think Gonzalez has an off game here as many pitchers do after a great start like that. I think it's even more possible since it happened late in the season and we've seen that Gonzalez is a little worn out considering you look at his LD% over last 3 starts which has been above 40% in 2 of his last three starts. He's just getting lucky because many of the line drives have been going right at his defense. He has had 3 poor starts in his last 8 and I think he's due here. On the flip side Cole Hamels has been one of the best starters all year, and really turned things up in the second half posting a 2.38 ERA over his last 10 starts since the All Star break. Hamels has much better raw stats than Gonzalez and he's on an extra day of rest here and going up against a line up that has been no more successful than the Phillies against LHP.

Tigers -160 4* MLB POD Justin Verlander has pitched poorly or not up to his standards all season, but now I see him turning the corner and he comes into this game on 5 days rest with plenty to pitch for as the Tigers are 3 games back of the Red Sox for home field advantage and they are only 7 up in their division. Verlander has dominated the Royals at home and struggled on the road and his last start just happened to be in Kansas City and he struggled. His last 4 home starts have all been over 7 innings and he's posted a 2.03 ERA in those games. In his career he's got a 2.80 and 15-5 record vs. the Royals over 28 career starts. The Royals who come into this game are 18-40 following an off day and are scoring more than 2 runs less per 9 vs. RHP than the Tigers are vs. LHP which is 5.87 at home. Tigers will face Bruce Chen whose xFIP is close to 5, but his ERA is under 3 so I know I'm getting value in this game even with a big name like Verlander on the mound. MIguel Cabrera has been in a slump mainly due to some nagging injuries but he's got 5 HR and a .405 average vs. Chen who has struggled pitching in Detroit. Chen's last 3 here he's given ups 27 hits in 15.1 IP and 14 ER. Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez and Andy Dirks all have averages over .300 with a lot of success.

[b]Yankees +150 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Yankees are within 1 game of the Rays for the second wild card spot just like that and they've returned to their old ways with 3 HR in back to back games against the Orioles. I like their chances a gain here tonight as I really like what Joe Girardi did with the line up having Alex Rodriguez in the #2 spot ahead of Soriano and Cano. Phil Hughes is also very under rated on the road and is fresh for this game. He's pitched well in Baltimore with a 3.06 ERA from 2010-2012 along with a good start and a bad start this year.

Wei-Yen Chen has a 5.29 ERA in 6 starts against the Yankees and the Yankees are scoring 5.46 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 games alone while the Orioles are stuck at just 3.42 vs. RHP. Yankees average is also 24 points higher. Yankees bullpen has struggled, but I think Hughes can give them 7 innings tonight of 3 or less ER and I think it will be enough to get a win.

Rangers -127 4* MLB POD Liriano has regressed this season and has had 4 really poor starts in his last 7 starts. He also posts 4.36 ERA on the road where he's given up 27.6 % LD's which is extremely high considering he's under 20% at home. Add that factor against a good hitting team in a hitters ball park and I think Liriano will be in trouble tonight. Liriano has also not been good on extra rest this season. In 3 road starts on extra rest he's allowed 15 ER in just 14.2 IP. He's also backed by a bullpen that has been pitching worse than their season averages combining for a 5.40 ERA in their last 3 appearances each. That's usually an advantage on the mound but against the Rangers on the road it's not. The Rangers bullpen has a 2.66 ERA at home this year and a 3.04 in their last 3 combined. They also send Martin Perez out there who has a 2.20 ERA at home and a 2.48 ERA on extra rest this year. The Pirates have never faced this lefty so it should take them a few innings to come up with at least a strategy for how they are going to get on base and it may be too late by then. Pittsburgh won game 1 1-0, but they won't win game 2. The Rangers are 16-6 in their last 22 with Kellogg behind the plate and the Pirates are 18-53 in their last 71 inter league road games.

[b]Dodgers -156 4* MLB POD[/b]
Playing with the public on this one. It just seems like the Diamondbacks are done right now 9 games back of the wild card and they have scored just 24 runs in their last 11 games averaging just 2.26 vs. RHP compared with the Dodgers who are averaging 5.02. Randall Delgado is a control pitcher, but now he's on 4 days rest on the road against the Dodgers who got 11 hits off him in 6 innings the first time. I think the Dodgers are a bit desparate here too after losing 4 straight they come back home for a much needed victory as they now trail the Braves by 2 games for home field.

Ricky Nolasco goes on 5 days rest and he's been much better since coming over to the Dodgers posting a 2.27 ERA in 11 starts. He's dominated the Diamondbacks this year allowing just 2 ER in 15 innings and that will continue here at home as the Dodgers are 40-11 in their last 51 vs. RH starter and the Diamondbacks are 7-15 in their last 22 as a dog - +150.

Pirates +155 3* MLB POD
The Cardinals won last night and are now just a 1/2 game back and now the Pirates look to keep a lead in division and they've owned Adam Wainwright of late who has struggled lately as well. Wainwright in his last 5 starts vs. the Pirates has allowed 22 ER in 33 innings. The Cardinals meanwhile go up against Jeff Locke who took a start off an should be fresh for this game. The Cardinals have struggled vs. LHP all season long scoring just 3.34 runs per 9 at home and nearly 1.5 less overall. I just think there is a ton of value here with the Pirates in a game that's going to be like a playoff game.

[b]Cardinals +100 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
This is going to be like a playoff atmosphere and the Cardinals can not afford to lose this and fall 3 games back in the loss column. Sending Joe Kelly to the mound on 5 day rest should help as he has a 1.86 ERA with 5 days rest this season and he's got a 1.72 ERA in 8 starts after the All Star game. He's also pitched less than 100 IP because he's come out of the bullpen at times and should be a lot fresher than A.J. Burnett.

Burnett has been worse on the road and is 3-6 in his career at St. Louis, but in the last 3 starts here he's allowed 19 ER in 13 innings with 30 BR. Beltran Carpenter and Descalso have good numbers against him and despite Craig sitting out (he struggled against Burnett anyway) I think we can expect some runs here. Kelly has had two excellent starts vs. the Pirates allowing just 1 ER in 12 IP and the Cardinals bullpen has really hit its stried posting a 1.93 ERA over its last 10 games. Cards are 38-14 in their last 52 hoem games vs. a RH starter and 47-23 in their last 70 following a loss. They get this game and make game 2 all the more interesting.

[b]Dodgers +115 1* free play [/b]
The Dodgers as an under dog? Sure why not Chris Capuano has been good enough on the road to win in the majority of his starts and is on an extra day of rest compared with Mike Leake who is making his 5th start on 4 days rest. In the 4 starts he has given up 19 ER in 21.2 IP. The Dodgers are 41-10 in their last 51 games vs. a RH starter and Andre Ethier is 5-9 against Leake who has never been a second half pitcher. He posts a 5.33 ERA post all star break this year and a 4.75 over the past three years. The Dodgers have hit well against RHP ont he road and are 24-4 in their last 28 road games. Capuano here on 5 days rest exactly is a good thing and he has an ERA under 3.30 on the road and the raw stats have him as the better pitcher compared with Leake.

Yankees -107 4* MLB POD The Red Sox took games against the Tigers to get a lead on the AL home field advantage, but now they have a big series with the Yankees who are desperate and playing well of late winning 15 of their last 18 home games. Meanwhile the Red Sox are just 7-15 in their last 22 on the road against home teams with a winning % greater than .600. Jake Peavy is on the mound for the Sox and he's only on 4 days rest where he has a 5.04 ERA this year and he's also on the road where he has an ERA over 5 this year. This is not a great ballpark for Peavy to pitch in as he's an extreme fly ball pitcher similar to Phil Hughes, but with more control over his pitches. Peavy's only start here he gave up 3 HR and 5 guys in the projected line up have HR's against him. Ivan Nova on the other hand continues to pitch and excel at Yankee Stadium posting a 2.49 ERA here and has great numbers this year on 4 days rest. He's really been the savior of this team down the stretch and I expect it to continue against the Red Sox tonight who had struggled to score runs in back to back games before putting up 20 last night. I think the odds are exaggerated because of the 20 runs and the Yankees should get a much needed win.

[b]Rockies -120 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Rockies look like they may have a healthy line up tonight with Carlos Gonzalez getting in the game last night and Dexter Fowler rejoining the line up yesterday, but it's not like they need it against Edinson Volquez. The Rockies will score runs her as he has a 12.46 ERA in his last 6 starts vs. the Rockies and Dodgers bullpen has a 5.03 ERA in their last 3 appearances each combined so I"m expecting Volquez to struggle a bit int his spot especially since Gonzalez is 10-19 against him and the Rockies collectively have a 1.078 OPS in 150 AB. Volquez has a career 8.39 ERA at Coors over 7 starts and he walks nearly 5 guys per 9 which won't get you out of the rocky mountains alive. Meanwhile Jorge De La Rosa has been Mr. consistent especially at home.

De La Rosa posts a 2.74 ERA at home and I think we are getting him at a cheap price here. He's struggled vs. the Dodgers in certain games but has always pitched better at home and Don Mattingly has been resting hitters. I expect he'll get a lighter line up again tonight and I think he'll have a quality start and get the win.

Rangers +120 1.5* Free Play
Texas lost last night, but now the AL West is on the line and this team is 38-13 in their last 51 vs. the AL West including 6-0 with Martin Perez on the mound. Perez has been a gem especially when on 5 days rest posting a 2.61 ERA this year over 7 starts and he'll be on 5 days rest tonight. Texas has an advantage in the bullpen to posting a 1.67 ERA over their last 10 compared with Oakland's 4.88. Oakland also throws Bartolo Colon out there who has declined each month of the season in true ERA. Beltre, Rios, Moreland and Murphy all have big numbers against him and the Rangers are 3rd in the league against the fastball and that's the pitch Bartolo Colon uses 85% of the time which is the highest in the league.

Tigers +104 3.5* MLB POD Winner of this game will have a small lead towards home field advantage so it is a very important game so much that Miguel Cabrera is in the line up and he's got monster numbers against Jon Lester as he's 10-16 off the south paw. In fact so does Hunter, Martinez, and Penal who are a combined 22-43. You did not misread that stat. Lester is also coming into this game posting great numbers over his last 5 starts so we are getting plenty of value but a closer look and he's faced teams ranked 16th, 17th, 23rd, 25th, and 20th in OPS vs. LHP. The Tigers are #1 in OPS vs. LHP and Lester has a 5.26 ERA in 6 career starts against them. Lester also comes into this game making his 4th start on 4 days rest and posts 3.72 ERA at home and a 4.45 ERA Max Scherzer has been handed gifts all season with some great run support there is no denying that, but looking at his raw stats he just is better than Jon Lester and he posts a 2.14 ERA on the road where the Tigers are 13-0 in his starts. His 9.87 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9 back up his record and the Red Sox are hitting just .237 with 3.08 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 compared to the Tigers 6.14 vs. LHP. Scherzer has struggled vs. David Ortiz, but who hasn't? Scherzer can pitch around Ortiz and dominate the rest of the line up especially without Jacoby Ellsbury in the mix who is out of the line up tonight.

Nationals -160 2.5* play Washington still believes they are in the mix and Gio Gonzalez has dominated the Phillies who are 28th in OPS vs. LHP this year and are throwing a minor league lineup out there. Any time you see guys like Carlos Ruiz in the clean up spot you know this to be true. Ethan Martin makes the start for the Phillies and has good stuff with 11.37 K/9 for a smalls ample, but his 5.68 BB/9 and 21.2% HR/FB ratio and 26% line drive percentage would scare anyone. I think the Nationals get a win here as the Phillies are really content to go into the off season.

Padres -134 3* MLB POD
How can you not fade Barry Zito? He's got an ERA over 9 ont he road and he's faced the Padres and struggled big time especially on the road allowing 17 ER in just 13.1 IP over his last four visits. RHB have a .864 OPS against him and the Padres will bat 8 and 6 combine for a 29-76 (.382 batting average with 5 HR) vs. Zito. Kennedy on the other hand has only really had trouble with Posey and Scutaro as he's held the Giants to .250 average .663 OPS over 216 total at bats. I look for the Padres to take advantage of this pitching match up and get a win against a division opponent.

Royals -154 2.5* play
Tough time for the Royals but with a lot of baseball to play they are still just 6.5 games out. They throw their ace out there on Sunday in James Shields who has been great on the road this year posting a 2.26 ERA. He's also posted a 1.27 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP since 2011 over 7 starts (3 complete games) vs. the Blue Jays. His last two starts alone have gone the distance in Canada and the one hitter he struggles against (Jose Bautista 9-28 w/ 4HRs vs. Shields) is out of the line up. J.A. Happ is on his 5th start in a row on just 4 days rest and this one comes as a day start after a night so it's less than 4 days. He's already walking 4.85 guys per 9 and I expect more today while the Royals have a huge advantage int he bullpen and they should get the W in a must have game!

Yankees -125 4* MLB POD
Yankees always seem to answer the bell when it's rung late in the season. I think getting Derek Jeter back is a huge boost to the team because they needed a leader and now they have Andy Pettitte on the mound who is no stranger to coming up big in big moments. All he's done is post a 0.46 ERA over his last three starts, but more importantly he's given up 4+ ER in just 2 of his last 10 starts. He's pitching well and the Orioles key hitters are lefties and it's the reason they are scoring over a run less per 9 vs. LHP than RHP. They are actually ice cold right now with a .188 average vs. LHP over their last 10 and Pettitte has had success limiting them to a .652 OPS in 206 career AB's. Pettitte also knows how to pitch on short rest during day where he posts a 2.73 ERA in his last 23 day starts Meanwhile Wei-Yen Chen is coming off his worst start of his career just 3.5 days ago.

Chen is an extreme fly ball pitcher and we have seen how that translates at Yankee Stadium. I look for Reynolds and Vernon Wells who are more role players at this point in their career to have a big impact with their bats today. The Yankees have 6 HR in just 86AB vs. Chen who has been dominating against lefties but struggles vs. RHB of which the Yankees have 7 of in the line up. Chen struggled down the stretch last season and we saw signs of it in his last start. Yankees bullpen is also a major advantage right now 1.14 ERA L10 games vs. Baltimore's 5.34 L10 games, but in the end I think it goes back to Chen's inability to keep the ball in the park.

Astros -107 3.5* MLB POD This is great value for the Astros at home where they are scoring 4.63 runs per 9 vs. LHP (facing Saunders today) who they have beat up this season at home. Saunders has a 2.50 WHIP and an ERA over 9 in his two starts in Houston this year. He also has a 7.16 ERA this August and is on just 4 days rest. Dallas Keuchel ont he other hand is on 5 days rest where he's pitched great against good competition. He faces a Mariners team that is 29th in OPS vs. LHP and is scoring 1.56 runs per 9 less vs LHP on the road than the Astros are at home VS. LHP. He also has better overall true value statistics when compared with Joe Saunders as he has a 3.76 xFIP compared with Saunders 4.43. Saunders just 4.86 K/9 is pretty bad and if you are not going to get guys out you better have good control, but he's walking more than 3 guys per 9 innings. This is one of the few times you'll find the Astros as favorites and they are 11-2 in their last 13

Brewers +115 2* bonus
Brewers and Angels not very interesting unless you are betting and we are. The Angels were jacked a bit playing the Rays but now they travel to Milwaukee to get some beers and they start Jerred Weaver who is one of the more over valued pitchers in baseball. Weaver has a 5.08 ERA in his last 5 starts, but over the course of his career he's always been pretty lucky with BABIP and strand rate and this season has been no different. With his speed down to 86 mph on average it's easier for hitters to locate and hit the ball hard. Wily Peralta on the other hand is averaging 94.7 mph and the Angels have never seen him and should have a harder time.

Royals -111 4* MLB POD
Blue Jays have been inconsistent all year long and after a great series with a division rival I expect them to burry their heads in teh sand. Mark Buehlre has been extremely lucky over the last month and I think it's finally going to come back to hurt him. He flirts with disaster in almost all of his starts, but an 89% strand rate has helped him specifically over the last month. The Royals are hot right now scoring 6 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games and have hit lefties extremely well on the road scoring 4.62 runs per 9. Billy Butler leads the Royals with a 20-57 mark vs. Buehlre. The Royals are also in a playoff hunt where as the Jays are not and could care less about this game on a Friday night.

On the flip side Ervin Santana has been great posting a 3.27 ERA and a 2.85 at night. He's had 5 of 6 quality starts on the road when he's on 4 days rest and 9 out of his last 10 starts vs. the Jays have been quality where he posts a 2.76 ERA. Two of his last 4 starts at Toronto were complete games. You also have to remember the bullpen in this match up where the Royals have a distinct advantage 2.79 ERA on the road compared to the Jays 4.08 at home while the Royals also post a 1.09 in their last 10games overall.

Royals -118 2.5* play Royals are still in the hunt and can continue to dominate the Twins again tonight with a win. They have won 16 of 21 and outscored them 52-25 in the last 7 meetings. Danny Duffy has been solid despite what his stats say as he struggled a bit after coming back from Tommy John, but I think he'll give the Twins troubles tonight. Andrew Albers on the other hand is worn out already 162 innings 60 more than previous years and I don't think he can continue to rely on luck. His average FB is 85 mph and he's given up 10 ER in his last two starts so the league is starting to get a good scouting report on him. The Royals have also hit lefties well on the road with a .272 average and 4.75 runs per 9. Over their last 10 they are even better .306 and 6.08 while the Twins are scoring just 2.74 and have really struggled with runners on. Royals also have the advantage in the bullpen and desire to win as the Twins are 15-41 in their last 56 home vs. a winning team.

Angels +159 2* We took a tough loss last night on this play as the Angels scored 2 runs to get the late lead. It's obvious the young guys on this team want to play spoiler and they definitely can again tonight. Looking at the pitching match up I like Garret Richards raw stats to give the Rays trouble. The guy is only giving up line drives and with an average fast ball of 95 mph with a nasty slider he should pitch well. Meanwhile Chris Archer is over rated he's been lucky with a 80% strand rate and a .230 BABIP. His xFIP or true ERA is over a run higher than his actual ERA.

Tigers -159 5* MLB POD Doug Fister starts for the Tigers tonight and he's been really consistent throughout the year and he posts a 1.87 ERA against the A's over his last 5 starts. Fister has great control and won't walk many hitters which the A's often rely on to get guys on base and get wins. Oakland's offense scored some runs the last two days but with everyone starting for the Tigers tonight I have to believe they want to avoid any type of sweep at home this late in the season. Dan Straily takes the mound for the A's and he's been awful of late posting a 1.68 WHIP over his last 5 starts he's got a 4.70 ERA and 5.49 ERA on the road and at night. In his 5 road starts on 4days rest (like he is tonight) he has a 6.49 ERA and he faces a Tigers offense that scores over 5.5 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home and is batting .342 vs. RHP over their last 10 games . Oakland's bullpen over that period has a 5.06 ERA and they have not ps well on the road I'm expecting Detroit to win here.

Rangers -126 4* MLB POD The Rangers have been on fire and will face the Mariners who are playing for pride. The Rangers are 20-6 in their last 26 road starts by Derek Holland they are also 42-15 in their last 57 vs. the AL West and in Hollands last 3 starts in Seattle he has a 0.83 ERA. Holland has clearly pitched well on the road this year posting a 2.74 ERA, but he's done even better against the Mariners in his career in 170 total AB they have a .553 combined OPS. They are ranked 29th in OPS vs. LHP and Holland is also on 5 days rest where the Rangers are 24-8 in his last 32. He posts a 2.32 ERA on 5 days rest and has 11 of 13 quality starts on the year. The Rangers bullpen has also been better than the Mariners which posts a 5.25 ERA over their last 10 which is important because Iwakuma has been very good. The problem with Iwakuma though is he's going up against a hot line up and he's pitched worse in the second half with an ERA over 4 while he pitched with an ERA under 3 in the first half. Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre are a combined 14-36 off him and it should be enough to get them some runs to get a win on the road.

Rays -135 2* bonus Roberto Hernandez is a guy that can give you quality innings if he's well rested which he clearly is right now. He has a 3.89 ERA when he's on more than 5 days rest this year he's also been better than his numbers posting a 3.55 x FIP and he has a 2.20 ERA in 11 career games vs. the Angels. Meanwhile CJ Wilson who has been good but not nearly as good on the road faces the Rays who are #2 in OPS vs. LHP. Wilson has a 5.53 ERA in 5 starts against teams with an OPS over .750 vs. LHP. The Angels are also 4-17 in their last 21 vs. a winning team while the Rays are 41-15 in their last 56 vs. a losing team.

Padres -147 4* MLB POD Padres come off a 3-2 loss and I think they will rebound today with their power pitcher Andrew Cashner. Cashner has been terrific posting a 2.38 ERA on 5 days rest and he's been excellent in that situation. Padres meanwhile will face Chris Rusin who has great numbers, but he has a much higher line drive % than Cashner and he only has 5.4 K/9 while walking nearly 3 guys per 9. He's relied on luck with a 80.6% strand rate. The Padres are actually capable of hitting LH starters ast hey are 7th in OPS vs. LHP and the Cubs are just 8-20 in their last 28 vs. RH starter.

Rays -169 3* MLB Play This is a pitching mismatch right here with Sabathia posting a 7.71 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. the Rays. Evan Longoria has torched Sabathia whose velocity is down 2 mph this year as he's 19-50 with 6 HR. Sabathia also has not been good even on 5 days rest as he's posted a 8.64 ERA in his last 4 road starts in that situation and he has an even worse ERA at night. Meanwhile David Price continues to be a stud posting a 2.52 ERA in his last 16 August starts before this year he has a 2.25 ERA this month and he's coming off a 1.68 ERA last month. Yankees are just 23rd in OPS vs. LHP while the Rays are 2nd. Yankees are 0-7 in Sabathia's last 7 at Tampa Bay and the Rays are 44-20 in Prices last 64 on 4 days rest!

Dodgers -113 3.5* MLB POD I really like the Dodgers in this spot after they shut out the Red Sox last night. When the Red Sox are without their best hitter in David Ortiz the entire line up really seems to struggle. He's out again today and they also have to bat a pitcher so in reality they are losing two hitters in this one. They will have to face Ryu who has been great at home posting a 1.78 ERA on the year and he's been solid with quality starts in 9 of his 11 starts on 4 days rest posting a 3.03 ERA overall. Red Sox hit RHP much better than LHP and Ryu should pitch another quality outing here at home. Jon Lester on the other hand comes in with another start on 4 days rest and this is happening on the west coast. Over his last 10 starts on 4 days rest he's been really bad posting a 6.07 ERA and giving up 5 or more ER 6 of the 10 starts. The Dodgers have a ton of confidence and have the advantage at home and the bullpen is also an advantage right now as they have posted a 2.08 ERA in their last 10. Lester also has a 4.11 ERA on the road this year and the Dodgers have the #1 ERA during day games.

Nationals +1013.5* MLB POD I will back the far superior pitcher here in Gonzalez whose 3.96 ERA on the road is very misleading since he gave up 10 ER in Detroit. The Nationals are actually 20-8 in his last 28 road starts and 20-8 in his last on 4 days rest. The Royals are struggling and have quickly gone from contenders to pretenders in a matter of a week. They are scoring just 2.05 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 and I don't see it getting easier tonight as Gonzalez has been solid during night starts 87.2 IP and a 2.16 ERA. On the flip side Chen has been extremely lucky and posts a 1.96 ERA at home, but his raw stats indicate his overall ERA should be 4.84. Chen is not your classic lefty where LHB struggle against him they actually have a higher OPS and average if you go back his last three seasons. Since coming into the starting role he's struggled to get guys out with a pitch and has gotten lucky by stranding runners. The Nationals have won 9 of their last 13 and look to keep that going here as they have scored 7.24 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 5 games alone.

Giants -125 3* MLB POD
The Pirates have shown signs of fading a bit, while the Giants offense continues to fail. Giants however do catch a break facing Jeff Locke who is really starting to struggle at this point in the season posting a 2.31 WHIP over his last 5 combined starts. Locke was lucky for most of the to begin with and now his control problems are catching up to him. He's walked 17 guys in his last 5 starts and is walking well over 4 guys per 9. Giants send their ace in Matt Cain to the mound who is on the other hand of luck. Earlier int he year he had nothing but bad luck, but over his last 10 starts he's given up 3 runs or less 9 times and posts a 2.25 ERA over his last 5. Over his last 5 starts vs. the Pirates he has been flat out dominating with a 1.24 ERA going back to 2009. Pirates have a .162 collective average and a .477 OPS in 130 AB. He's got 2 complete game shut outs in that period and I think he's set up well to have another great game.

Orioles -123 4* MLB POD
This is a very desperate Orioles team right now and they send a guy to the mound who has been extremely consistent posting a 3.15 Eat home and a 3.20 ERA during night starts in Wei-Yin Chen. Chen has also pitched well in his career against the Rays in 6 career starts posting a 3.05 ERA. Rays on the other hand are 7-19 in their last 26 as a dog and 5-11 in Jeremy Hellicksons last 16 starts overall.

Hellickson comes into this game posting 5.40 ERA on the road and a 5.57 ERA during night starts. He has struggled big time vs. Chris Davis and Adam Jones and Davis is hot right now 9-20 over the last 7 days. I don't figure for Hellickson to go deep into this game which means they'll likely turn to the bullpen that's ranked 19th in the league. I don't figure him to go deep because this is just the third time in the last two years (1st this year) he's making a start on 4 days rest for a third consecutive game. The results are not good when he's been on 4 days rest posting a 5.67 ERA. He's also got a 5.53 ERA following 100+ pitch efforts so it's clear he just is not the same under these circumstances and having to play the Orioles who are dangerous against RHP is not going to be an easy task as they rank 3rd in OPS. Baltimore is still 35-16 in their last 51 as a home favorite and in my opinion should win this game.

Pirates -125 2* play
Pittsburgh swept the first two games and the Padres are really at a disadvantage here with Gerritt Cole on the mound who averages 96mph. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 10 and 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 14 games. Cole has been solid on the mound and can easily be compared with Zack Wheeler as he throws the same 4 pitches around the same % of time and speeds. The reason I bring up Wheeler is because the Padres had never faced him and Wheeler went 6 innings allowed 1 ER and struck out 12. Cole has better control, throws harder and has a lower xFIP by nearly a run meaning he's got better stuff. Ian Kennedy on the flip side has struggled and the Pirates have gotten to him of late with a .904 OPS in 84 combined AB. Kennedy walks too many guys and gives up too many home runs and the Pirates who are in a pennant race should take advantage.

BlueJays +115 3* MLB POD
I like the Jays to bounce back in game 2 here tonight with big win after losing game 1 of this day night double header. It's hard for any team to win two games in one day, but it's even harder when you send Phil Hughes to the mound at home. Hughes has been awful at home posting a 6.03 ERA and that's mainly because he's an extreme fly ball pitcher and the Blue Jays are 2nd in HR vs. RHP so I expect this to be a bad start for Hughes here tonight. On the flip side you have Mark Buehlre making a start on a humid night and he tends to be one of the quickest workers in the game and I just think in game 2 of a double header that he'll have the advantage over the hitters tonight despite some of his struggles vs. the Yankees in the past. BlueJays bullpen has also been great on the road this year posting a 2.38 ERA so if he gets in trouble he has some good back up.

Rockies +145 2* bonus
I see a lot of value here on the Rockies and it is mostly because Jhoulys Chacin has flown way under the radar. What's ridiculous is that he has a 3.7% HR/FB ratio and he pitches at Coors Field! Chacin simply does not give up home runs and the Orioles are a team that are far too reliant on the long ball. Chacin also has posted a 1.87 ERA on the road this year and a 1.97 ERA on exactly 5 days rest. Feldman on the other hand has a 7.66 ERA at home in limited starts, but is backed by a bullpen that's not pitching as well as the Rockies. Feldman also has to go up against Michael Cuddyer who is having a great season and 7-13 with 2 HR against him.

Dodgers -106 3.5* MLB POD
Even though everyone is on the Dodgers I still like them at these odds. First of all they have the #1 Day ERA and their bullpen has been as dominating as their offense. The Phillies are actually 30th in ERA during day games and while Cole Hamels looks like himself again posting a 1.12 ERA over his last three those were mostly against poor hitting teams ranked at the bottom of the league vs. LHP. Hamels also comes into this game in a rare situation. He's off a complete game and he threw 120+ pitches. Hamels has only thrown 120+ pitches 3 times in the last three years. he's on 5 days rest his numbers are not that impressive in that situation this year posting a 4.54 ERA at home. The Dodgers just continue to win and hit and are 24-3 in their last 27 road games and they'll have a good shot at win #25 with Ricky Nolasco on the mound.

Nolasco has good splits here 2.76 ERA in his last 3, 2.99 ERA on the road, and a 2.78 ERA during day starts. He also has a 1.82 ERA in 5 road starts on 5 days rest and once again is backed by a bullpen that has been great. Hamels has pitched well of late, but like I said you have to pay attention to who he was doing it against. The Dodgers are just on fire right now while the Phillies are 2-14 in Hamels last 16 on 5 days rest, and they are 3-18 in their last 21 vs. RH starter. Expect them to get a heavy dose of Nolasco's curve ball because they are ranked 30th in pitch value vs. the curve.

Mariners +104 2* bonus
Martin Perez comes off a complete game and threw more pitchers than he ever has before in 115. Actually that's back to back games with over 100 pitches. He's a very young pitcher and only 165 lbs and I don't think he's ready for that type of work. I see the Mariners bats coming a live here today and it won't take much with King Felix on the mound. FElix has been filthy on the road posting a 2.17 ERA and over the last three years August has been his best month posting a 1.60 ERA over 17 starts. What I really like about this match up though is the fact the Felix is on 5 days rest where he's just been unstoppable this year. In 6 road starts on 5 days rest he's given up 4 ER total! HE posts a 0.90 ERA on the road in those starts. Really all other stats are pretty even between these two over the last 10 games so I really expect the Mariners to be able to get the lead and hold on.

Red Sox -123 3.5* MLB POD
This is an interesting battle between two starting pitchers who have pitched extremely well this season. Hiroki Kuroda has been off the charts and I've backed him many times, but the secret is he's been only that good on 5 days rest. Here he makes a day start on 4 days rest. He's had his issues against the Sox before and Pedroia and Ortiz are a combined 14-30 against him. Kuroda has an ERA under 1.50 on 5 days rest but when he's on 4 days rest he posts a 4.72 ERA on the road over his 6 road starts. He now faces a Sox team that is #1 OPS vs. RHP, #1 OPS at home and #4 OPS during day games and a starting pitcher on 5 days rest.

John Lackey has solid numbers 8+ K/9 and <2BB/9 and he's delivered at home posting a 2.15 ERA and a solid 3.02 ERA during day games. He also has a 2.43 ERA at home on 5 days rest which is very solid and the Sox are 8-3 in his last 11 on 5days rest. Yankees bats have been hot, but I expect the Sox to take game two as their offense has been better and more consistent this year. Yankees bullpen is also performing poorly and I feel they will need it today, but they post a 7.22 ERA over their last 10 overall.

Athletics -127 3* LNF Play
The A's have really struggled of late, but now they get to what I consider to be a pitching advantage. First of all A.J. Griffin has struggled big time because of the HR because he's a fly ball pitcher. Pitching in Oakland helps as the A's play in the 26th ranked HR stadium for least amount of HR per game. Cleveland also has a .193 average and are scoring 3.52 runs per 9 vs RHP over their last 10.

Justin Masterson on the flip side makes the start and it's his 5th n a row on 4 days rest which is a lot to ask this late in the season. He's had control issues walking over 3 guys per 9 and I think that will only be more evident tonight against an Oakland team that just tries to get on base. Masterson in 4 career starts in Oakland has a 11.09 ERA and he's struggled against them at home too. He also has a 4.37 ERA on the road and a 4.30 at night. He's got a 5.19 ERA on the road when he's on just 4 days rest. The A's should win this one they have the advantage in the bullpen and are 55-23 in their last 78 vs. RH starter while Masterson is 5-16 in his last 21 as a road dog.

Tigers -102 4.5* MLB POD
I love the Tigers despite them losing game 1 today of the double header. It's rare that a team will lose two times in one day, but I look at more then just trends. The Tigers have actually hit James Shields relatively hard. Cabrera has a .429 average, Fielder .357, Martinez .321, Hunter .293, Jackson .350, Dirks .333 in a good amount of at bats as the entire team combined has 236 AB and a .838 OPS. Shields comes into this game game on 4 days rest for the 3rd start in a row which means he is making his 4th start in 16 days and he's averaging over 110 pitches in his previous 3. He has had a very easy schedule on the road this year especially when he's on 4 days rest. If you take out his road start against the Tigers he's faced an average 20th rank in OPS vs. RHP in his road starts on 4 days rest over 7 starts. I really expect him to struggle tonight against a Tigers team that is motivated after losing game 1.

The Royals on the other hand go up against Jose Alvarez who has three pitches fastball, slider, and changeup. The Royals are 33-69 in their last 102 road games vs. LH starter and they are also ranked 21st, 22nd, and 22nd against those three pitches. While the Tigers are 45-16 in their last 61 home games vs. RH starter. I don't often jump on a public team like the Tigers, but I will here.

Nationals -163 2* bonus I backed the Nationals the last 2 days as our POD and I'm backing them again with Dan Haren on the mound. First of all there is nothing wrong with Haren. He suffered from giving up too many HR based on the fact that he's giving up a lot of fly balls, but his raw stats are excellent. Facing the Giants who are 29th in day HR, and 29th in HR overall should help him. Overall he's striking out more than 8 batters per 9 and he's walking less than 1.60. Those are elite numbers and his velocity on all of his pitches on average are up this year from last year. His two pitches he throws the most are a fastball & cutter and the Giants are ranked 28th and 29th against those two pitches. He's also been solid in 5 of his last 6 starts and he's making his 3rd start in a row on 5 days rest which should help. Vogelsong and the Giants continue to struggle with the bats and the Nationals look to continue their surge to get into the playoff race.

Angels +108 3.5* MLB POD I've been on the Yankees a couple times the last few days with our free pick. You can check out my blog for both write ups. However, I think the perception of the Yankees has changed to quickly and I think we are catching value on the right side today. I mean Phil Hughes should never be a favorite at home. He's just not built for Yankee Stadium because he is an extreme fly ball pitcher at over 48% which is #2 in the majors. That's not good and it has resulted in 6.18 ERA at home as he's given up 8 HR in his last 4 starts here alone. The Angels are 7th in HR vs. RHP and have plenty of pop with Trumbo & Trout in the line up. Hughes also has not exactly pitched well vs. the Angels posting an ERA over 9 in 5 career starts. Hughes also has a 5.70 ERA during day starts and a 5.51 ERA over the last three years while he's backed by a Yankees bullpen that is worn out right now posting a 5.29 ERA in their last 10. Angels on the other hand will have C.J Wilson going here who is on 4 days rest, but has pitched great with 12 of 14 quality starts posting a 2.90 ERA. When he's on 4 days rest off a start where he had 5 or more days of rest he gets even better with a 2.31 ERA. Wilson last 4 starts vs. the Yankees he has posted a 2.25 ERA and in 239 AB they are batting .218 with a .644 OPS. Wilson unlike Hughes has good numbers during the day 2.44 ERA and 2.86 over the last three years. I expect a quality outing from Wilson here and for the Angels to hit.

Nationals -146 3* MLB POD Jordan Zimmermann should be fresh here after 6 days off and he posts a 2.90 ERA at home and a 2.68 ERA at night, but on 5-6 days of rest he has a 1.75 ERA at home. He also has a 2.34 ERA in his last 5 vs. the Giants who are ranked 28th in OPS in the month of August and are averaging less than 2.6 runs per game since the All Star break. Washington on the other hand have found their bats and are 4th in OPS in the month of August nearly .200 points ahead of the Giants. Tim LIncecum who is also on 5 days rest has a 4.06 ERA away and a 4.70 ERA at night and a 4.84 ERA during his starts on 5 days rest. Lincecum does not have good numbers vs. the Nationals posting a 9.00 ERA over his last 5 starts against them. The Giants are backed by a bullpen that's struggling too and I just think there is enough value to call the Nationals my POD as they are 37-18 in Zimmerman's last 55 starts while the Giants are 6-20 in their last 26 as an under dog.

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Cardinals -174 3* Free Play Adam Wainwright has been great at home this year posting a 2.02 ERA. He had a few rough outings, but the Cardinals gave him some extra time off and he's back with what I think will be a fresh arm facing a Pirates team that is leading the division. Pirates send Charlie Morton to the mound who has a 4.08 ERA on the road where he has struggled a ton over his career especially against the Cardinals who he has a 6.53 ERA in his last 4 road starts. Cardinals are +5.03 runs per 9 over their last 10 when compared with the Pirates offense vs. RHP over their last 10 games. The only advantage the Pirates have here is the bullpen, but I feel strongly that Wainwright will go 7+ innings because how fresh he is. His worst start all year on 5 or more days rest is 7 IP 2 ER and he posts a 1.52 ERA over 9 starts with three complete games on 5 or more days rest.

Royals -138 2.5* bonus The Marlins are just a terrible team and I like the confidence Bruce Chen is pitching with. Chen has a 1.79 ERA on the year and will face the Marlins young ace Jose Fernandez who I think is starting to approach his limits as a young pitcher already 132 innings into the year. He's got a 3.94 ERA on the road which is only average and posts a 4.24 ERA on the road when he is only on 4 days rest and now he has to face the hot hitting Royals who are 4th in OPS in the month of August, while the Marlins are 30th. Marlins on the year are actually scoring 1.5 runs per 9 less vs. LHP than the Royals are vs. RHP when we look at the home away splits and the bullpen numbers are also pretty far apart at over 1.5 run. When we look at the last 10 games for both ball clubs those numbers are exaggerated even more.

Nationals -125 4* MLB POD I love the Nationals in this spot as they have started to score some runs of late especially vs. LHP which they face tonight in Bumgarner. Gio Gonzalez will go up against a team that has not hit him and he posts a 3.03 ERA at home and a 2.26 ERA at night. More importantly is he is on 6 days rest and posts a 1.69 ERA at home when he's on 5 or more days of rest over 6 starts this season. The Giants are 26th in OPS vs. LHP and are 7-20 in their L27 as an under dog. Bumgarner has worse numbers here. He's got a 3.08 ERA on the road and a 3.15 ERA at night and faces a Nationals team that is scoring 6.31 runs per 9 while batting .308 vs. LHP over their last 10. Giants over that same time period are hitting .169 and scoring 2.25 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Nationals also have the edge in the bullpen with a 3.49 ERA over that period compared with the Giants 6.12. The Nationals have played well at home against bad teams and the Giants are under .400 on the road. The Nationals are 39-15 at home in their last 54 against teams with a road win% under .400.

[b]White Sox +116 3* MLB POD[/b]
It is hard not to back Chris Sale on our the way he's been pitching and he's on 5 days rest where he posts a 1.50 ERA over his last 8. He is also backed by a bullpen that is really doing its job with a 2.43 ERA over the last 10 games and he gets to face a Tigers line up that is hitting just .255 and scoring only 2.08 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. Doug Fister on the other hand is on 4 days rest and the road where he has struggled at times. Fister has 4 poor starts this year of giving up 5 or more ER and 3 of the 4 have come on 4 days rest and 3 of the 4 have come on the road so he is clearly more likely to pitch poorly on the road where he is 3-12 in his last 15 as a favorite. White Sox hitters have decent numbers against him posting a .722 OPS and a .284 average in 95 AB. The Tigers are 7 games up in the AL West so this may be a game they relax a bit and Chris Sale can dominate.

Diamondbacks -144 3.5* MLB POD I like the Dbacks chances to take the series with Jonthan Niese coming back in this game he has really struggled in his career against the Diamondbacks who have hit lefties well at home. Niese has a 6.75 ERA in 4 career starts against the Diamondbacks and he's got a 6.66 ERA on the road and he's walking nearly 4 guys per 9 on the season. I looked back to see how the Diamondbacks offense did against starters who walked a lot of guys and they were able to bounce a lot of those guys out of the game early and I expect the same tonight especially since Niese is just coming off the DL. On the flip side we have Zeke Spruill who has been in the bullpen before making his first start last time out. Spruill will throw a ton of fast balls and sliders and those are the two pitches this Mets team have struggled against ranking 22nd and 23rd both with negative ratings. Spruill had a rough luck start having to pitch in Texas and he gave up 3 HR, but facing the Mets should not be an issue as they are 23rd in HR on the year and his home ball bark is one of just 12 ballparks producing less than 1 HR per game overall.

Red Sox -125 5.5* MLB POD
Boston is 15-5 in their last 20 as a road favorite and despite facing the red hot Royals I like them to continue that trend on Saturday night after losing the first two games. It's going to help a ton that they are facing a RHP again in Jeremy Guthrie who has a 4.69 xFIP and is not even striking out 5 guys per 9. Guthrie also has struggled vs. the Red Sox as 8 of 9 hitters in Boston's line up have an average over .300 and some significantly. Overall they have 192 AB .359 average and a 1.070 OPS. Boston should continue their trend as the best hitting team vs. RHP ranked #1 in OPS .821. Meanwhile the Royals are 24th in OPS .677 vs. LHP which they face tonight in Felix Doubrant, but before we touch on Doubrant it is worth noting that Guthrie is on 4 days rest where he has a 4.77 ERA. He's actually making his 2nd start in a row on 4 days rest which he's done 4 times this season posting a 5.33 ERA. He's coming off a complete game shutout so I expect the Sox to hit him hard.

Felix Doubrant on the other hand is on 5 days rest where he posts a 3.06 ERA in 10 starts, but over his last 6 he's got a 2.11 ERA. This is his second consecutive start on 5 days rest so he's fresh and it's worth noting that over 10 starts on 5 days rest he's given up more than 3 runs just once. Facing the Royals who are struggling vs. LHP on the year (3.83 runs per 9 at home) compared with Boston who is elite at hitting RHP (5.53 runs per 9 away) and I think we have a big advantage.

Orioles -129 2.5* bonus
The Giants have really fallen off the map this season going 8-20 in their last 28 home games is uncharacteristic. They are ranked 26th in OPS vs. LHP and that's what they will face today with Wei-Yen Chen making the start on 5 days rest. Chen has a 1.77 ERA on the road on 5 days rest and a 2.20 overall. He's got good overall splits on the road and a 2.95 ERA during day games and he gets to face the Giants for the first time who are hitting .170 and scoring less than 1 run per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games.

On the other side the Orioles get to face Chad Gaudin for the 2nd time this year. They could not seem to get the big hit in the first match up, but he's on 4 days rest for the third start in a row where he has averaged less than 5 innings per start. Baltimore also hits RHP well 5.06 runs per 9 on the road and Gaudin is walking over 3 guys per 9 innings. He's gotten by with an extremely low 5.2% HR/FB ratio, but we won't see him going deep into this game and the Giants bullpen has not been it's usual self lately. I give the edge to the Orioles.

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Rays -119 2* FREE PLAY
David Price takes the mound with good odds ont he road where he's been great over the course of his career. Price has a 1.07 ERA and a 0.47 WHIP over his last three games combined and he'll face a Dodgers team that I believe is going to have some issues against quality pitchers especially lefties without Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp in the lineup. Price in 49 AB against him has held Dodgers hitters to a .570 OPS over his career and the Dodgers are just 12-30 in their last 42 inter league games against LHP. The Rays on the other hand have been scorching vs. LHP all season long.

They will face Chris Capuano who is coming off back to back quality starts, but now he faces the Rays who are 2nd in OPS vs. LHP on the year and are an amazing 39-18 in their last 57 vs. LH starters. They are one of a few teams averaging over 5 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road and Chris Capuano is struggling with a 5.56 ERA at home and a 6.08 ERA at night. Really the only advantage the Dodgers have in this game Friday night is their bullpen, but the Rays are off a day off unlike the Dodgers and they have Price on the hill so the bullpen probably won't play a huge factor.

Hot Pitchers
Matt Garza (2-1, 22.1 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 2.82 ERA)
Erik Bedard (0-3, 17.2 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.60 ERA)
Dan Haren 2-1, 19 IP, 0.84 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Jerred Weaver (2-1, 22.2 IP, 0.79 WHIP, 1.59 ERA)
Scott Kazmir (3-0, 19 IP, 0.84 WHIP, 1.89 ERA)
Lance Lynn (2-1, 21 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)
Rick Porcello (3-0, 20.1 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 1.74 ERA)
Ivan Nova (1-2, 21 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)
Francisco Liriano (3-0, 21.2 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 0.42 ERA)
Patrick Corbin (1-2, 20 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Ervin Santana (3-0, 21 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)
Kyle Lohse (3-0, 18 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 1.50 ERA)
Chris Capuano (3-0, 17.1 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 2.60 ERA)

Cold Pitchers
Kyle Gibson (2-1, 14 IP, 1.71 WHIP, 7.07 ERA)
Esmil Rogers (0-3, 16.1 IP, 2.14 WHIP, 8.27 ERA)
Jeremy Hefner (1-2, 15.2 IP, 1.53 WHIP, 6.32 ERA)
Joe Saunders (1-2, 15.2 IP, 2.04 WHIP, 6.89 ERA)
Ryan Vogelsong (1-2, 11.1 IP, 1.94 WHIP, 7.15 ERA)

Indians -114 4* MLB POD I'll take the Indians at home here where they are 35-17 in their last 52 games while the Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 with Weaver as a road dog. The Anagles just simply have not hit and are ranked 15th vs. LHP, but even worse of late. Angels are scoring just 3.66 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road which is a run less than Cleveland vs. RHP. I look for the Indians to win this game with Scott Kazmir who is on 4 days rest, but has a 1.09 ERA in his last 5 on 4 days rest. Kazmir was unlucky earlier in the season and I still think we have value on him as his luck has turned and his ERA has lowered. He has feasted on some weak competition of late, but he will get the Angels who are struggling here tonight while he's backed by a bullpen that is flat out better than the Angels. Jerred Weaver on the other hand has a 3.96 ERA on the road, but has been worse on 5 days rest which is rare. ON 5 days rest he has a 5.40 ERA on the road and that's the situation he's in tonight. What's worse is in his 7 starts this year on 5 days rest he's gone 7 innings just once which means LA will have to rely on a bullpen that's been one of the worsts all season. It also does not help that the Angels are one of the worst defensive teams too.

Royals +104
Last night we were lucky enough to get a late win with the Red Sox, but we saw some signs of the offense that may start to struggle. They left a ton of guys on base and facing Bruce Chen won't be easy especially without David Ortiz, who is not in the line up which makes no sense because Chen has had issues with LHP this year. Chen overall has been great over his first 4 starts, but unlike Houston he is backed by a great bullpen while Houston's bullpen is awful and was the reason the Red Sox won.

Jon Lester continues to struggle and has awful numbers on the road this year. Even though he's on 5 days rest here I think he'll struggle. The Royals are hot right now 13-3 in their last 16 overall while the Red Sox are just 17-35 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Red Sox -167 4* MLB POD
I don't see many options on the board today, but I do like the advantage the Red Sox have in this one on the mound and on their bench. First of all if we are looking at home/away splits the Red Sox have the biggest advantage I've seen in quite a while scoring more than 2 more runs per 9 vs. RHP and they have a bullpen ERA that's 2.55 lower than Houston and Boston is the road team. Ryan Dempster will make another start on the road on 5 days rest where he carries a decent 3.94 ERA. He will finally face a weak hitting team as the Astros are 25th in OPS vs. RHP.

On the flip side Jared Cosart has been amazing through 4 starts posting a great ERA, but a closer look reveals that he has been lucky with a .214 BABIP and a 86.7% LOB%. He's not even striking out more batters than he's walking which is 3.86 per 9. Cosart throws 75% fastballs and 17% curve balls which make up the majority of his pitches. I Looked at several things here. Where do the Red Sox rank in OPS vs. RHP, their pitch value vs. FB and CB's and they are 1st, 1st, and 2nd. The other 4 opponents that Cosart has faced average rankings was 13th between those three categories. Cosart will have a real challenge facing the Sox tonight.

Tigers -117 1.5* bonus Corey Kluber is definitely under rated but the Tigers hit him hard once this year 8 ER in 4.2 IP. Tigers are 8-1 in their last 9 meetings and they will throw Anibal Sanchez who is even more dominant than Corey Kluber has been. Sanchez has a 1.53 ERA in 9 starts this year on 5 or more days of rest. Detroit's bullpen is also just pitching better right now 1.52 ERA over their last 10 and the offense is a bit better too. This will be Kluber's 3rd GS in a row on 4 days rest and he just went 8.2 IP against the White Sox. Sanchez meanwhile will have the extra rest and the confidence of having a 1.76 ERA in 5 career starts vs. Cleveland.

Braves +110 3.5* MLB POD I'm backing the Braves here who are red hot and have hit Stephen Strasburg hard over their career. In 128 AB they have a .852 OPS against him and that should continue tonight as they have scored 7.06 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 overall games. Meanwhile Washington is 30th in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 3.00 runs per 9 over their last 10. I think both pitchers will pitch good enough to win but it's the Braves offense getting the nod along with their bullpen that has just been flat out dominant. Braves bullpen has a 0.81 ERA over their last 3 outings each combined while the Nationals have a 4.79. Strasburg tends to not go deep into games so this is critical factor for tonight's game. Mike Minor is on the hill for hte Braves and he's been fantastic with a 2.47 ERA on the road and has pitched a quality start in 11 of his 13 starts on 4 days rest. I expect it to continue against the Nationals who just have been clueless all year hitting lefties.

Yankees +105 2* play
This is a great opportunity for Phil Hughes to come out and have a great start. He's on more than 5 days rest and he's in a ball park that is kind to fly ball pitchers which he certainly is. Hughes has a 6.02 ERA home and a 3.02 ERA on the road because he is such a high fly ball pitcher getting just 30% GB. Hughes otherwise has good numbers and is facing a team that has struggled vs. RHP all year and is scoring just 2.31 over their last 10 combined vs. RHP.

The Yankees got Curtis Granderson back last night and he hit a home run that's good news as they'll go up against Ian Kennedy a former 21st overall pick of the Yankees. Kennedy has seen better days, but hoping to make a new name this season with the Padres. Kennedy has a 6.81 ERA in his last 6 on 4 days rest and is also a fly ball pitcher. The difference is Kennedy has struggled with control allowing more than 1BB/9 compared to Hughes. He also has a very high 24.7% line drive percentage compared to Hughes 21.4%. Alfonso Soriano has 3 HR against Kennedy in 13 AB and with Granderson back in the line up as a HR threat I see Kennedy struggling again with his control as Hughes pitches a gem while he's backed by the Yankees excellent bullpen.

Indians -115 3.5* MLB POD
Cleveland has the #2 OPS during day games this year and they face the young and hard throwing Nathan Eovaldi. I really don't like this match up for Eovaldi who is walking 4.24 guys per 9 and really relies on his hard throwing fast ball which he throws 72% of the time with an average velocity of 96mph. Pitchers like this tend to struggle early in their career on 4 days rest. This is the first time he's making back to back starts on 4 days rest and while he has a 2.50 ERA at home he's faced some pretty poor offenses in the Mets, Nationals and Padres so I 'm not putting to much weight on that. The Indians have hit RH starters well who struggle with their control Take Verlander for instance who is having an uncharacteristic year with his control walking 3.5 guys per 9. The Indians have scored 11 runs off him in 3 starts while he has a 5.82 ERA against them. The other RH starters with more than 4 BB's per 9 have posted a 9.45 ERA. Eavoldi has been very lucky with a .237 BABIP but not today.

On the flip side Scott Kazmir has really turned things around and is on 5 days rest after just 87 pitches. He has a 1.67 ERA over his last 4 starts on 5 days rest and he faces a Marlins team that is 28th in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 1.54 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 combined. He should be able to pitch a quality outing in this one against a poor hitting team and he's backed by a bullpen that is trending upward with a 3.20 ERA in their last 3 outings for each reliever combined.

Dodgers -112 4* MLB POD
The Dodgers club is #1 in ERA during day games and they are 17-12. Chris Capuano is going on 5 days rest which is a good thing because he's been solid when he has had the extra rest. In his 3 day starts he has a 0.47 ERA. His main issue all year has been his ability to get guys out when there are runners on base as he has a 65.9% LOB. Cubs are 21st in OPS with runners on and last in average. Those are good mix of results because the three starts he struggled in on 5 days rest were against 3 teams who were top 10 in OPS with runners on. His other 4 starts he posted a 0.69 ERA. Over the last two years Capuano has allowed just 8 hits 1 ER in 14 IP vs. the Cubs. and he's backed by a bullpen that is strong 2.48 ERA last 10 games and 2.33 ERA over their last 3 apperances for each reliever.

Cubs do send the talented Jeff Samardija to the mound, but in 50 AB the Dodgers have a .964 OPS led by Hanley Ramirez who is 8-15 against him. Jeff has not pitched well at home with a 4.90 ERA and this is his 3rd start in a row on 4 days rest meaning it's his 4th start in the last 16 days and he's been over 100 pitches in all of those starts. In his last 6 starts on 4 days rest he has a 5.12 ERA and it seems like he's wearing down a bit. Facing the Dodgers who just continue to win will be a tough task.

Rays -151 4* MLB POD
I feel this is a great match up for the Rays facing Bumgarner whose ERA's are a run higher during night starts and starts on the road. Bumgarner is also facing the Rays who are 39-16 in their last 55 vs. LH starter. The Rays are also 2nd in the league in runs vs. LHP and OPS. Bumgarner also comes into this game off 116 pitch effort. That's just the third time he's thrown 115 or more pitches all year. The following start the previous two times did not result in quality outings - 6.2 IP 4 ER and 6 IP 5 ER. Add in that he has also never pitched on the turf in the big leagues and I think the home team has a significant edge.

The Rays send Chris Archer to the mound who has a 1.74 ERA at home and a 0.36 ERA over his last three starts. He's been a bit lucky I will admit with his LOB% and BABIP while he's walked more guys than I care to back, but he makes up for it as he has a 16.5% line drive percentage. That's not good for the Giants who are 20th in OPS vs. RHP. The 16.5% is good for 3rd among pitchers and to put it in perspective Bumgarner is at 18.6%. The Giants are also 8-22 in their last 30 as a dog and 3-13 in their last 16 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Archer who averages 95mph on his fastball is in good shape on 5 days rest. HIs last 3 starts have been on 5 days rest and his pitch counts have not been high despite throwing 9 IP a couple of times. I'm backing him here today.

Mariners +103 3.5* MLB POD King Felix has been red hot and this is excellent value considering the Red Sox bats have been a little cold lately against RHP - just 3.54 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Felix has a 2.25 ERA on the road this year and he comes into this game on 5 days rest where he posts a 1.81 ERA on the year and a 0.79 ERA in 5 road starts. I just can't fade Felix here especially with Dempster on the mound. Dempster will be on 4 days rest and that's where the Mariners killed him earlier in the year with 4 ER over just 3.1 IP. The Mariners have a .794 ops against him in 115 AB. Dempster has had trouble with control and giving up the long ball. The Pirates are 12th in OPS vs. RHP and are 5th in HR. I'm liking the Mariners chances here to spoil a sweep and for Dempster to struggle.

Pirates -114 2* play How can you fade the Pirates now? They are 23-6 in their last 29 as a home favorite and their offense is playing like a gritty championship contender. They battled back constantly last night and finally gritted their way to a victory. I believe the same will happen tonight. Charlie Morton has always been solid at home and posts a 3.17 ERA against the Cardinals at PNC. Meanwhile Joe Kelly is making just his 5th start and has a 6.43 ERA over 14 IP vs. the Pirates. Morton won't need much help if he can get past the 5th where the Pirates bullpen can take over with their 2.07 ERA at home. Cards bats continue to struggle just .193 last 10 vs. RHP and they are clearly not the same without Yadier Molina.

Rangers -150 2*
I backed the Rangers last night and got lucky because they were hitting in the clutch. In my defense I did predict CJ Wilson's poor outing and that the bullpen would let him down too. Same thing goes here. Jerome Williams is another pitcher who struggles with control walking 3 batters per 9, but he's even worse over his last 5 starts covering just 18 IP he's allowed 28 runs while striking out just 11 guys and walking 11 guys. Rangers have now only had 3 pitchers of the 12 who average 3 walks or more pitching in Arlington go more than 6 innings. The Angels are dead right now and their bullpen and defense do not do them any justice. Meanwhile the Rangers are in the middle of a pennant race. Perez should get the job done he's got an ERA under 2 at home this year and the Angels have struggled at time vs. LHP they are not familiar with.

Pirates +100 3.5* MLB POD
The Pirates are red hot right now and will look to sweep the Cardinals for a 4th straight time. Adam Wainwright on the hill for the Cardinals gives us great value on the Pirates. However, Wainwright has struggled vs. the Pirates in his career with a 5.20 ERA and Pirates have a .365 average and .999 OPS in 115 AB. Pitt is swinging the bats well right now more than 2 runs more per 9 innings compared with the Cardinals over the last 10 games and it shouldn't get any easier with Jeff Locke on the mound.

Locke was kind of fade material for me for a while due to his inability to consistently have control, but I'm passed that especially against a team like the Cardinals who are struggling and have not hit lefties nearly as well as righties all year long. Cardinals have one of the best bullpens in the game and it has showed especially at home where they carry a 2.12 ERA so it's hard to see how the Cardinals will score runs. Cardinals are currently stuck in 17 inning scoring drought and Adam Wainwright is making another road start on 4 days rest after throwing 100+ pitches in 3 consecutive starts. In his last 3 road starts on 4 days rest he has a 5.21 ERA and has failed to allow fewer than 3 ER. The Pirates magic ride will continue.. for now

Royals -124 2.5* bonus This one is easy for me. The Twins are ice cold scoring 2.94 runs per 9 in their last 10 games and the Royals are hot winners of 6 in a row. They have Ervin Santana on the mound who has a quality start in every single game (9) on 5 days rest while posting a 2.45 ERA. He's also had great success against these Twins posting a 2.07 ERA over his last 4 starts spanning the last three years. The Twins are much more dangerous against LHP than they are against RHP and they send Mike Pelfrey to the mound who struggles big time when runners get on base. The Twins are 16-56 in their last 72 vs. a starter with a WHIP < 1.15.

Rangers -139 4* MLB POD The main difference between the lefties on the mound tonight is the offense and bullpen that supports them as well as their ability to control their pitches. That's where Texas has all three advantages. Derek Holland has been great with his control all year long and has a 3.26 ERA at home. He has not always been great against the Angels but he also has plenty of quality starts and right now the Angels are struggling to find their offense. C.J. Wilson however comes into this game on 4 days rest with his last 4 starts averaging 119 pitches. He walks 3.45 batters per 9, but on the road he's even worse at 4.17 and even worse vs. RHB which the Rangers put 7 in the line up tonight. Wilson has 3 starts in Texas since he left and they have not been of quality as he's allowed 14 ER in just 11.1 IP with a WHIP well over 2. The Rangers have had huge success this year vs. pitchers who struggle with location. Only 3 of the 11 actually got past the 6th innings and twice it was Jarrod Parker. Overall opposing starters who walk over 3 guys per 9 averaged just 5.1 IP and had a 5.95 ERA. That will not set things up well for the Angels whose bullpen has been struggling big time. I really like the Rangers to build off last night's victory.

[b]Pirates -146 3* MLB POD[/b]
Jake Westbrook has not been great on the road and he's struggled big time against the Pirates hitters. Pirates won't need much offense with the way they have been performing on the mound. Francisco Liriano looks dominant with a 1.67 ERA at home and he'll face a Cardinals team that only scored 3 runs in their sweep by the Braves. Cardinals have been a better hitting team scoring over a run more vs. RHP. This is the game the Pirates must have and have a significant advantage.

4* MLB pod

2* play

Nationals -137 3.5* MLB pod

Rockies -155 5* MLB POD
I love the Rockies tonight as I look for them to bounce back from a poor performance last night. This is one of the few times the Rockies have their offense healthy and ready to go with Fowler, Cargo, Tulo, and Cuddyer and even Todd Helton all in the line up last night. They'll need them against the young Jose Fernandez who posts a 2.75 ERA on the year. Fernandez though will have a difficult time pitchign at Coors for the first time. He's a fly ball pitcher and he already has a 4.17 ERA on the road and is walking more than 3 batters per 9 innings. He also probably won't get much support. Marlins just snapped out of a 37 inning scoreless streak and are scoring just 2.74 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road. They also face Jhoulys Chacin who is on a streak of his own.

Chacin has a 3.12 ERA over his last 7 outings, but what is more impressive and what made this a 5* play for me is the difference in his starts when he's well rested. When he's on 5 or more days of rest he has a 2.50 ERA in 9 starts this year. He should keep the Rockies in it and the Rockies have a significant advantage offensively. The Marlins are 15-43 in their last 58 as a road dog while the Rockies are 31-15 in their last 46 overall as a favorite.

Phillies +103 2* play
The Phillies have dominated the Mets recently who are a dreadful 11-24 in their last 35 home games 10-22 in their last 32 vs. LH starters and 10-25 in their last 35 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Cliff Lee posts a 2.34 ERA in his last 9 starts vs. the Mets who are scoring less than 3 runs per game vs. LHP at home this year. Matt Harvey will be on the mound for the Metropolitan's and that's why we are faced with nice value here with Lee who has a better ERA on the road than Harvey does at home. I also expect Harvey to have a bit of a hang over here in the 2nd half. The Mets have already used their bullpen like crazy due to poor starting pitching so when Harvey is limited to 7 innings or less the Mets will be at a distinct advantage.

Reds -134 4* MLB POD
Jeff Locke had a brilliant first half, but I fear it was more luck than skill. He did not even have a 2:1 ratio for K's to BB's as he had a 4.25xfip which was over 2 runs higher than his 2.15 ERA. There is not a lot of value to be had on Locke who was lucky with a .228 BABIP which led to a 83.3% left on base percent. He missed his last start due to a stiff back and has not pitched since July 8th. I predict a little rust in this situation especially for a young pitcher.

Meanwhile Homer Bailey pitches on 5 or more days of rest which is always key for a power pitcher in my opinion. He's backed it up posting a 2.57 ERA on 5 or more days of rest this season with half of his starts going at least 8 innings. Bailey is 10-3 in his last 13 vs. the Pirates and has 3 complete games out of his last 10 starts including a no hitter last year. Bailey has a 2.85 ERA at home this year and should have the advantage here as the Pirates have already started their 2nd half decline by losing the first two games of this series. Locke is 4-10 in his last 14 road starts while the Reds are 48-22 in their last 70 home favorites -110 to -150.