Dodgers -130 (4.5* MLB POD) Love the Dodgers here as they have won 6 in a row and 20 of their last 26 when they are favored. Clayton Kershaw so far to me is the Cy Young winner now he goes east in what might look like a start that does not matter, but it's going to be a big one on whether or not he can win the Cy Young facing a playoff team on the road. In 3 career starts vs. the Braves he's got a 2.42 ERA 25 K's in 22.1 IP with a WHIP under 1.00. Braves hitters have 60 career at bats and a .133 average vs. Kershaw and ironically for a playoff team are 29th in OPS vs. LHP this year. Those struggles are highlighted even more over their last 10 as they have a .185 average vs. LHP. Dodgers are scoring 6.64 runs over their last 10 games vs. RHP and continue to be hot as they face rookie Randall Delgado. Delgado looks to have solid stuff at 21, but he's just 21 and he's prone to walking guys and giving up HR's. He had a quality start but it was vs. the Giants in August. IN AAA/AA he has an ERA over 4 and is giving up more than 4 walks per game and nearly 2 HR. The Braves injuries I think are starting to have an impact on the bullpen and again they'll likely have to go to the bullpen early and that bullpen which is best in the majors has a 5.62 ERA over the last 5. Back to Kershaw we see he's got 100+ pitches in all of his last 10 starts, but the Dodgers are being smart giving him extra rest when they can as he's off 5 days rest today where the Dodgers are 16-5 in his last 21 on 5 days rest.

Rockies +135 (4* MLB POD) Corey Luebke since being a starter has pitched over his head with a 3.53 ERA at home even that's not enough to over come the Padres poor offense as they are ranked last vs. RHP in terms oOPS and last in terms of OPS at home with a .629. They'll face Alex White who is still very raw but had an ERA under 2 in the minors between the Indians and the Rockies. He made two impressive starts for the Indians vs. the Tigers and Angels two playoff teams as he went 6 innings in each giving up 2 ER and 3 ER his only mistakes were home runs which the Padres just are not going to hit. Luebke on the other hand who was out of the bullpen earlier this year has had starts against teams that just don't hit lefties well and as a starter he has not pitched that well and he's faced teams ranked 29th, 28th, 23rd, 19th, 18th, and 12th vs. LHP in terms of OPS. Now he faces the Rockies who are ranked 10th and have beat him up in the past as he posts a 1.86 WHIP and 7.45 ERA as he's given up 3 HR. Rockies are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings here and the Padres are just 5-22 in their last 27 games vs. NL west.

A's -145 2.5* play Tough not to grab this the Mariners are in that streak where they can't hit a lick again. They only managed 2 hits of Moscoso the first time around in July I expect much of the same. Vargas for the M's has a 9.18 ERA over his last 3 starts iwht a 1.80 WHIP. His last 4 vs. Oakland he's given up 14 ER. I think the A's who have 6 HR in 98 AB vs. the south paw can squeek out the win.

Cardinals -155 (3.5* play) Cardinals shocked everyone last few days vs. the Brewers and are now 7.5 games out. Carpenter is 12-2 in his last 14 vs. the REds and though he goes up against Cueto the Reds are hitting right now and have hit Cueto hard before. Cueto's last few starts we have seen signs of him coming back to earth. He's on 4 days rest while Carp is on 5 days rest where he is 40-16 in his last 56. Cardinals are also hitting much better with a better bullpen over their last 10 games. Reds on the road are not teh same they are 18-41 in their last 59 vs. winning teams and are only 19-45 in their last 64 in ST Louis.

Red Sox -118 (5.5* MLB POD) Rangers took a big blow to their line up when they lost Nelson Cruz they have dropped down vs. LHP as they are now 5th while Boston who will also face a lefty are #2 in the league and have been even better at home vs. LHP scoring 6.69 runs per 9 wiht a .312 average at home. Cruz was hitting .344 vs. lefties and Andrew Miller won't have to face him as he makes his second start vs. the Rangers the first one just a few weeks ago 6.1 innings 3 hits, 2 walks 1 ER. Texas since losing Cruz have struggled over their last 10 games they are hitting .208 with just 2.54 runs per 9 vs. LHP. The bullpen has struggled to with a 4.75 ERA over that period. While the Red Sox coming off a loss last night have a .302 average vs. LHP over their last 10 games with a 3.77 bullpen, but Texas on the road has a .244 average and just 3.81 runs per 9 vs. LHP so big advantage to the Red Sox. Holland has not pitched well in August over his career and at 163 innigns pitched it's the most he's ever pitched. Expect them to go to that bullpen and be extremely conservative with him. Rangers are 2-12 when Hollans is a +150 or less under dog in his last 14 while the Red Sox are 26-10 in their last 36 vs. LH starters and 39-16 in their last 55 vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

ANGELS -161 4* MLB POD
Not much on the card today but we'll come with this play late after losing 2 of 3 to the Mariners to open the series the Angels who are still in a playoff race turn to ERvin Santana to try to even up the series and I think they well as they face off against lefty Furbush who is 1-6 with a 5.65 ERA during night starts with a 1.72 WHIP. Furbush had a start vs. the Angels giving up 5 hits 1 walk and 3 ER in just 4.2 IP vs. the Angels this year. Santanna has dominated this team and the Mariners though are swinging the bats well right now showed signs of cooling down last night. They are 29th vs. RHP in OPS and are one of the worst home hitting teams. Angels are 48-22 in their last 70 meetings and the Angels over the last 10 games vs. LHP are scoring 6.34 runs per 9 with a .314 average. I expect them to come up with a big win here today as the Angles are 9th vs. LHP in ops this year.

[b]Phillies -128 (3* play)[/b]
Hard to argue the Phils the way they are hitting and pitching right now and Vance Worley has been consistent with exception of his road start in LA but that's a tough road start for any young player now back in his own time zone here I expect him to pitch well enough to win. Philly is 4th with a .768 OPS during day games scoring 5.05 runs per game and they are 5th with a 3.30 era and 29-14 record while the Reds are 25th with a 4.41 ERA during day games. Phillies have strong numbers vs. Mike Leake who has not pitched that well this year.

Astros +109 (3* play) I like what I saw from Happ last time out vs. the Braves now he gets a home start as he looks like he's back after some time in the minors as he went 6 innings and gave up 1 ER in San Fran. Now he faces a Pittsburgh team that is 24-58 in their last 82 road games vs. LH starters on the road and are 25th in OPS vs. lhp. James Mcdonald makes another start vs. the Astros on the road where he has a 5.35 ERA and 1.67 whip this year. His last start vs. the Astros he gave up 3 ER which will be plenty of support in my opinion. The Pirates have a 7.24 bullpen ERA over their last 10 games while the Astros are at 3.38.

Nationals +147 (3.5* play) This line is crazy in my opinion Lannan goes up against Atlanta's 29th ranked OPS vs. LHP. Lannan is 4-0 vs. Atlanta this year with a 3.09 ERA and is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts in Atlanta. Derek Lowe opposes him and has a 10.80 ERA and 2.00 whip vs. Wash this year. Ankiel, Zimmerman, Gomes, Desmond, Espinosa and Flores have a combined .348 average and 9 hr vs. Lowe.

Indians -125 (4.5* MLB POD); Jimenez has looked solid in his home starts vs. the Indians as he's got 15 innings pitched 14 baserunners and 1 ER. HIs two home starts were against the Royals and the Tigers ranked 5 and 9th in OPS vs. RHP so very impressed by those numbers. Now he faces Oakland who has a 23rd rank OPS and have never seen Jimenez. Oakland on the road just .244 vs. RHP wiht 3.72 runs per 9 will face Cleveland with Harden on the mound who the Indians have a .333 average and 1.283 OPS vs. him. They are scoring nearly 5 runs per game at home vs. RHP. Oakland also has a 7.33 bullpen ERA over their last 10 games and are 17-39 in their last 56 road games vs. RH starters whiel the Indians are 43-17 in their last 60 overall as favorites.

Cubs +130 (3* play) Cubbies face the Giants who struggle to score at home and they have never seen Matt Garza so that's likely not to change. I think the Cubs bullpen has been good and hte Giants bullpen is going to start to get stretched a bit. Vogelsong has been great that's why he's a favorite here today, but I still don't think he is as good as advertised. Vogelsong has been hit hard by the Cubs 61 at bats a .311 average and .881 OPS. Aramis Ramirez is 6-15 with 2 HR off Vogelson and has a .398 average in August as he continues to be red hot. Cubs are scoring 1.10 more runs per 9 on the road than the Giants are at home and their bullpen is solid at 3.54 on the road this year.

Brewers -147 (4.5* MLB POD) Do the Brewers ever lose here? Now they get Edwin Jackson who in his last start at Milwaukee as he threw 7 innings gave up 14 hits and 8 ER. Collectively the Brewers have 98 AB and a .306 average .938 OPS vs. Jackson who does have good stuff. Brewers are just a different animal at home this year. Marcum has a 1.74 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Cardinals are 5-14 in their last 19 as a dog. Cards have just a .245 average vs. him and a .591 OPS with Berkman and Pujols a combined 2-19. Milwaukee is 7-1 in their last 8 home vs. the Cards and are hitting more than 1.5 runs per game than the Cardinals in the last 10 games. I expect the Brewers to continue what they are doing and dominate as Jackson really has not pitched well outside Busch Stadium since being acquired by the Cardinals.

Red Sox +125 (3* play); Love the Sox today CC has gone 0-4 vs. them and has not been pitching that great of late. He's given up 20 ER in 20 innings pitched vs. Boston this year and has a 4.43 ERA over his last 3 starts. Boston has .309 and 6.83 runs per 9 average at home vs. LHP while the Yankees on the road although have hit righties hard not nearly as hard as they've hit lefties. They have a .246 average and 4.58 runs per 9 and are banged up a bit here. Jeter will likely start but Arod is out and I think John Lackey has gotten into a little rhythm here with a 4.00 ERA over his last 6 home starts he had a QS last time out vs. the Yankees. Yankees have 434 AB vs. Lackey and a .267 average .788 OPS. Red Sox core of Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Crawford, and Pedroia are a combined 19-44 for a .432 average vs. CC in their career.

Phillies -141 (4.5* MLB POD); Phillies look to stay hot as they go on the road to face the Reds who gave us an early bird winner yesterday in extra innings. Phillies should be well rested and though the Reds are #2 in OPS vs. LHP which they will face in Cole Hamels on Monday I'll tell you why I still like the Phillies today. First of all the quality of LHP that the Reds have faced has not been there and not to often. This team has under 1000 AB's vs. LHP this year that's the least in the majors. Think about that most full time MLB players will have 500 AB themselves in a season and the Reds have only seen LHP 930 times in 2011. They've faced a lefty just 4 times in their last 27 games and those starters have been Ross Detwiler twice and WAndy Rodriguez and Wade Leblanc. The last 2 quality pitchers at Cole Hamels level they faced were David Price and Clayton Kershaw who combined for 15.2 IP and 3 ER or a 1.72 ERA. Hamels has arguably having a better year than both of those lefties and he's dominated the Reds in his career 9-0 with a 1.23 ERA. He's also got a 2.82 ERA on the road and 6-2 record while Homer Bailey has a 4.66 ERA at home and vs. the Phillies he has a 7.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 4 career start. The meat of the Reds line up Phillips, Renteria, Votto and Stubbs have a combined 12-75 with a .160 average vs. Hamels. Phillies have a .804 OPS combined vs. Bailey. Reds are just 2-9 in their last 11 vs. NL East with Bailey on the mound while the Phillies are 16-6 in their last 22 vs. RH starter. Reds also have a 5.28 bullpen over their last 10 games and that's been the main issue with this team and we saw it in extra innings on Sunday despite them pitching well we saw manager Dusty Baker hesitate with his bullpen in that game. Phillies are 29-11 in their last 40 vs. the NL Central with Hamels on the mound and their bullpen is plenty rested and their offense is plenty good of late hitting .277 over their last 10 games with 5.77 runs per 9 overall.

Rays +139 (3* Dog of the Day) Love the Rays despite looking at the edge the Jays have in the pitching match up with Ricky Romero who has been dominant going today. Romero though faces a team that has been red hot hitting LHP. They are 7th with a .756 OPS while the Jays continue their fall vs. RHP all year long as they are ranked 16th with a .715 vs. RHP. Wade Davis has had success in his career 6 starts with a 2.93 ERA vs. the Jays. Jose Bautista is 2-16 off him and the Rays Zobrist, Longoria, and Damon are 18-50 vs. Romero with 2 HR. Romero has given up a home run in all of his last 4 starts vs. the Rays and the Rays are scoring 7.24 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 5 with a 2.08 bullpen the Jays .209 4.03 vs. RHP and 7.71 bullpen over their last 5, .197 in their last 10 games vs. RHP. Rays on the road this year are hitting .263 with 5.25 runs per 9 vs. LHP and are 13-2 in their last 15 road starts vs. a losing team and 23-7 in their last 30 games overall vs. a losing team and are 6-1 in their last 7 visits to Toronto.

Rockies +102 (3* Dog of the Day) Love the Rockies today considering Chacin's starts vs. the Dodgers have been dominating. He's got 41 innings pitched over his last 6 starts vs. them and has allowed only 4 ER for a 0.88 ERA. Eovaldi will oppose him and he's looked good in his first 4 starts, but walks are something that gets him in trouble and the Rockies are 3rd in the league in walks and he has yet to pitch more than 6 innings. Dodgers have one of the worst bullpens and has a 4.39 bullpen ERA at home. Rockies have lost the first two here in the series and I don't see them getting swept as they were playing good baseball before the series as Carlos Gonzalez finally looks healthy he's hitting .393 in his last 11 games and has dominated the Dodgers with a .446 average in 14 games this year. Colorado is 7th in OPS vs. RHP and are 9th in OPS during day games with 4.67 runs per games played during game which is better than the Dodgers 4.12. Dodgers just .240 and scoring a mediocre 3.51 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home.

Diamondbacks -148 (4.5* MLB POD) Dbacks continue to win and it's been the pitching as the main reason. Now they get a home game vs. a lefty in Cory Luebke and they are 5-2 in their last 7 home vs. LH starter. Luebke has looked great as a rookie starter, but looked bad vs. the Diamondbacks at home where he gave up 3 HR 6 innings pitched 6 hits 2 walks and 4 ER. Luebke's numbers look better than they really are in my opinion because the teams he's been facing can't really hit lefty pitching as his last 5 opponents are ranked 18th, 22, 22, 25, and 24th, so it's not a shock he's putting up nice numbers. Padres had some hot bats, but now their bats have been struggling over the last 3 games hitting .189 with 18K's and 18 hits. Ian Kennedy is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA vs. the Padres over 5 career starts so I expect him to continue that domination as he's got 41 K's in 30 innings pitched and the Padres are hitting .194 with a .570 OPS with 67 at bats vs. Kennedy. Padres are 7-21 in their last 28 after their opponent allows 2 runs or less in prev game and are 34-76 in their last 110 visits to Arizona.

Reds -145 (3* play) Cueto has been a beast at home with a 1.32 ERA and with no Zimmerman in the line up who is 4-11 off Cueto the Nationals lineup has a .194 average off Cueto. He had 8 innings 6 hits 1 ER at Washington earlier this year and has been solid vs. the Nationals over his career. Nationals are not a good day hitting team nor are they good vs. RHP (23rd in OPS VS. RHP) and they are 28th with .649 OPS during day games scoring just 3.28 runs per game while the Reds are #3 .791 and 5.19 runs per day game. Nationals have struggled over their last 10 games with 2.88 runs per 9 vs. RHP and they are consistently bad on the road .225 3.44 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Reds have a 2.90 bullpen and are scoring 4.87 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home.

Astros +220 (2* play) Can't go wrong here with the Astros especially the way the Giants hit. They face a lefty who they have struggle hitting all year lefties they are 29th with a .652 OPS vs. LHP. JA Happ had been god awful this year went down to the minors and if for nothing less he found some confidence with a 1.50 ERA over 3 starts. Bumgarner just faced the Astros and gave up 11 hits and 6 ER over 6.2 innings. All the Stros need are a couple here and I like their chances with these odds.

Dodgers -120 (3.5* play); Astros +220 (2* play) Dodgers just swept the Cards and scored 22 runs in their last 2 games so I expect that to continue even at home as Esmil Rogers has a 6.82 ERA during nights starts with a 1.85 WHIP and he has a 2.12 WHIP over his last 3 starts while Ted Lilly who has a 3.80 ERA at night and a 2.75 over his last 3. Lilly has dominated the Rockies who on the road are hitting just .239 vs. LHP scoring 3.29 runs per 9. Lilly ove rhis last 3 years combined has a 3.03 ERA and 8-4 record so his success of late is not surprising. Dodgers have 63 AB vs. Rogers a .397 average and .981 OPS.

Tigers -125 (4.5* MLB POD) Rick Porcello has been way better on the road this year than he has been at home. He's also due for a quality start and that's something I think he'll get on Friday vs. the Twins who are one of the worst hitting teams vs. RHP they also just lost Thome on waivers they traded Delmon Young. Denard Span is on the DL, Mauer is not likely to play neither is Velencia and Kubel couldn't be claimed on waivers before the game. Yikes and not to mention they bring up Scott Diamond who has a 5.56 ERA in AAA this year to make a start. The Tigers have been hot with the bats and are 6th in the league with a .754 OPS vs. lhp this year. Tigers are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. the Twins and have a .197 average vs. RHP over their last 10 games and Porcello is 3-1 this year with a 3.42 ERA during the Twins this year over 4 starts.

Rangers -150 (5.5* MLB POD) Rangers RL +126 (2* BONUS) Love the Rangers to bounce back and win tonight's game after losing two times to the Sox over the past two days. First things first Red Sox have never faced Alexi Ogando who has been great at home which is hard to say in Texas as the RAngers have the best home OPS making it known this is a hitters park. But Ogando is 7-2 with a 3.33 ERA and is 10-3 with a 3.24 ERA during night starts. Red Sox can hit as they've shown in this series, but Ogando should have them under control early. Andrew Miller makes the start for the Sox and that's where my play really comes in because Miller has been awful, but nobody is noticing. Miller has a 4.99 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP it could totally be worse. IT's his first time facing the Rangers, but this is not a good spot for the youngster on the road vs. an angry Rangers team that at home is hitting .294 with 7.07 runs per 9 vs. LHP. I expect the Rangers to get 5 runs off him. Miller really has not faced any good teams that can hit lefties in his 9 starts with an average opponent ranked 16th in OPS vs. LHP. Only team he faced in the top 10 was the Rays and they knocked him around for 7 ER in just 2.2 IP. Look for the Rangers to get back in the win column they are #5 vs. LHP this year and as I mentioned they ironically hit lefties at home better than they hit righties. Miller pitching over his head which is obvious by his 5.55 BB/9 and low 6.10 K/9 ratio. Texas is 22nd in walks this year so they are very aggressive which I think might go on to hurt Miller here today because he's stressing throwing stirkes. look for him to leave a few over the plate to get a head of guys, but the Rangers lineup will be ready. Sox are 4-11 in their last 15 in Texas and the Rangers are 14-6 in their last 20 home vs. LH starters. Lastly Miller during night starts opponents are hitting .333 so it's not just the walks he has a 6.61 ERA during the night.

[b]Cubs +115 (3* play)[/b]
Garza is making a day start he's got a 2.98 ERA during day starts this year as he is a tough guy to follow a night game by a day game with. He's been good at home too and the Cubs bullpen has a 1.77 ERA over the last 10 games. MOre importantly the Cubs have seen Brandon Beachy and both Byrd and RAmirez hit him hard last time out. Also the Braves have a .649 OPS during day games tied for last. Look for the Cubs to take this game to split the series.

Rangers -152 (3* play) We had Texas last night and we will back them yet again as the Boston injuries are bad ones that will hurt them once again. Rangers have also dominated John Lackey who has a 5.80 ERA on the road and has not faced a solid team on the road in quite a while as he faced the Mariners in his last road start. Hamilton, Kinsler, Young, and Murphy are a combined 60-150 off Lackey for a .400 average. Boston has just a .211 average vs. Colby Lewis with a .684 OPS. Last time at Texas Lackey gave up 9 ER and 10 hits in just 3.2 IP. His last 2 raod starts combined 20 hits in just 11.2 IP.

Reds -139 3* play This line is interesting Cueto has dominated teams this year with a 1.96 ERA during night games and 2.32 ERA on the road. Now he faces a Marlins team that has been just awful I mean awful vs. RHP. They are 16-38 in their last 54 vs. RH starts and 6-25 in their last 31 home vs. RH starters. Nolasco goes for the Marlins and he's been good at home but over his last 4 starts he's given up 39 hits and 3 walks over just 24.2 IP. Reds are scoring over 5 runs per game over their last 10 games and should have the bullpen advantage in this one too as the Marlins have a 5.27 in their last 10. Florida is more of a team that hits well vs. lefties at home and Cueto is fighting for Cy Young consideration.

Brewers -139 (4.5* MLB POD) I like the Brewers here today big time especially following a loss to a team that is pretty much dead since the trade deadline and are just 11-43 in the Pirates last 54 meetings wiht the Brewers. I think the only reason the Brewers lost game #2 yesterday was because it's very hard to sweep a double header. Look for the Brewers to come back strong here they are 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Estrada has been solid for the Brewers as he went 5 innigns given up 1 base runner in his last start vs. the Pirates. If you take out his poor start on the road vs. the Braves and he has a 1.57 ERA over his last 4 starts. Brewers will face Ross Ohlendorf making his first start since April as he spent time in the minors this year and a 4.44 K/9 ratio and 2.96 BB/9 ratio in AAA is not going to get anyone out at this level especially the way the Brewers are hitting. Prince Fielder has 2 HR in 10 at bats off him and the Pirates are 8-19 in his last 27 starts.

Rangers -140 *5.5 MLB POD Rangers RL +150 2* PLAY Rangers were clearly looking ahead to this game after getting beat 10-0 yesterday. Now they return home where they have been dominant especially vs. LHP which is what they get on Monday when Erik Bedard comes to town. Bedard two solid starts v.s the Rangers this year but he has been pitching at home vs. the Rangers and pitching in Texas is a different story they lead the league in OPS at home with a .852 and vs. LHP they have a .298 average and 7.22 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home while the Sox have a .769 overall OPS on the road and vs. LHP just .234 with 4.04 runs per 9 vs. LHP which they'll face in CJ Wilson who has dominated them. Wilson has 1.35 ERA over 4 starts in his career vs. the REd Sox and he should have any easier time with the possibility of no Ellsbury and Ortiz and Youkilis already out of the middle of that line up. That's a huge advantage for Wilson who is 11-1 in his last 12 as a home favorite -110 to -150. Rangers overall are 22-7 in their last 29 as a home favorite. As I mentioned Bedard at Texas is a different story in his start this year it came in April in his first start of the year he gave up 5 runs in 5 IP including 2 hr in his start before that he gave up 11 base runners over just 2 innings giving up 6 ER.

Rangers -126 *4.5* MLB POD Rangers lost yesterday which was a rare thing, but I see them bouncing back on Sunday when they send Holland to the mound the lefty has dominated on the road and during day starts. In fact the Rangers have the #1 DAY ERA and Holland has a 2.59 ERA while the team overall has a 2.96 ERA. Rangers bats are #3 vs. RHP which they will face on Sunday as the White Sox are 20th with a sub .700 OPS vs. lefties. Gavin Floyd makes the start and he is 1-4 vs. Rangers over his career wtih a 6.04 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He's also struggled during day starts and at home where he carries a 7.15 ERA and a 5.09 ERA during the day. Rangers have a .802 OPS vs. Floyd over 103 AB's and are 27-9 in their last 36 vs. RH starter. White Sox struggle at home .244 3.52 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home this year and when Floyd is a dog the Sox are 7-16 in their last 23 games. Floyd also is not a very good anchor pitcher as the Sox are 4-17 in his last 21 game 3 starts. Lastly I like that the Rangers are coming off a loss yesterday and I think the value and the line is better than it should be considering the run the Rangers are on and I'll continue to say the Sox are over rated

Dbacks +162 (3* play) Dbacks try to avoid losing a 4th straight when they send Wade Miley to the mound for his MLB Debut. I'm confident for Miley what better team to go into a debut as a lefty against than the Braves? Braves are 29th with a .648 OPS vs. LHP. He had 9.28 K/BB ratio in AAA with a 3.64 ERA this year so he has the stuff to get a Braves line up out as his ERA should be lower with a very unlucky .327 BABIP this year. Beachy makes another start over his last 5 he has a 2.67 ERA and getting a lot of credit but a closer look he's faced some teams that are not good hitting RHP. Marlins two times ranked 20th vs. RHP in Ops, cUBS (14TH) Nationals (21st) and REds (16th) and now he faces the Dbacks who are ranked 10th. Dbacks are scoring 5.54 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games and are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. RH starter. I expect Miley to be great in his debut and for the Dbacks to get back int he win column.

Yankees -140 (4.5* MLB POD) AJ Burnett continues to get no respect and I don't blame the NY media, but he really has not been terrible. Burnett is due to have a dominant start and facing a team like the Twins who are 28th vs. RHP in terms of OPS are a good team to do that against. Not to mention that he is 6-0 vs. the Twins with the Yankees with a 2.20 ERA in 6 starts vs. the Twins. Yankees have dominated this team 61-19 in the last 80 meetings and I expect them to win here facing a lefty who they have dominated in Liriano. Yankees 22-5 in their last 27 vs. LH starters and 18-5 in Burnett's last 23 game #3 starts. Twins just 18-42 in their last 60 vs. AL east and 3-18 in their last 21 with Liriano vs. AL east. Liriano is actually 0-6 in 6 career starts giving up 38 hits 16 walks over 35 innings pitched good for a 1.54 WHIP which just won't get it done vs. a hot hitting Yankee team that is #1 in the league in OPS vs. LHP at .834. Yankees on the road this year .287 scoring 6.52 runs per 9 vs. LHP and have a 3.12 bullpen which gives them the advantage in that department too because the Twins have an ERA over 5 at home from their bullpen. Cano, Jeter, and Gardner are a combined 15-40 vs. Liriano so I'm confident as he has a 1.94 whip over his last 3 and a 3-4 record at home with a 5.83 ERA that the Yankees can get to him throughout this one.

Tigers -139 (4* play); Well the Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 home vs. LH starters, but now they face Huff who combined 42 AB they have .381 average and a 1.092 OPS. They are ranked 6th in the league in OPS vs. LHP while the Indians are 17th vs. RHP. Huff's 2 starts at Detroit have resulted in 9 innings 12 hits and 4 walks for 6 ER. I think he gives up more here today vs. the Tigers who are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. the Indians. Indians are 17-38 in their last 55 as a dog and 3-13 in Huff's last 16 starts as he makes just his 4th start this season. Fister has been consistent and solid all year with an ERA around 3.5, but in his time with the Mariners he was just not getting victories. Now he faces the Indians who are hitting just .235 vs. RHP on the road in his second home start in Detroit. The first one he held a very good Rangers team to 2 ER over 7 innings. I sense he'll be dominant here today. Also note Huff in the past 3 years struggled on the road 6.59 ERA and 7.20 through 7 starts in August. I like the Tigers.

Rangers -116 (5* MLB POD) Rangers are on fire they just took over the AL West and I'll continue to fade the White Sox as I do not think they are that good and even with Peavy who has had some poor luck on the mound looks like the White Sox advantage he is still not the same dominant pitcher. We have yet to see him dominate a line up other than the Twins who are 28th in OPS vs. RHP in the league now he faces #2 OPS vs. RHP team in the RAngers who have knocked him around in 2 starts since joining the White Sox 8 ER over just 5.1 innings on 11 hits and 6 walks. Hamilton, Andrus and Cruz are 9-17. Collectively they have 102 AB .294 average and .837 OPS. Meanwhile Matt Harrison keeps flying under the radar. The White Sox really struggle vs. lefties 20th in OPS this year and Harrison has a 1.29 ERA over his last 3 starts vs. the White Sox and they have just .212 average and .614 OPS vs. him. White Sox at home are scoring just 3.40 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Texas' bullpen has been solidified so they also hold an advantage there and are 26-9 in their last 35 vs. RH starter as the White Sox have not been a good home team 5-16 in their last 21 as a home dog.

Dbacks +103 (3.5* DOD play) Love the Dbacks they proved they can hang with the better teams in the league and I think they'll take this game as Lowe has given up 34 hits in his last 4 starts alone and has a 2.00 WHIP over that time he has struggled at home this year and he did that vs. 15, 20, 21, and 26th ranked OPS teams vs. RHP and now he faces a hot hitting Dbacks team and he's not even the best starter going as Hudson has an ERA a run lower than him. Braves have also never faced Hudson who is 15-6 in his last 21 and suddenly Dan Uggla who was carrying this line up has gone ice cold. Dbacks have 150 AB vs. Lowe and a .313 average .824 OPS.

Indians -111 (4* MLB POD) Masterson has been to good this year to not back him playing a White Sox team that has struggled vs. righties. Masterson is 5-4 with a 2.59 ERA on the road and a 2.41 ERA during night starts. His last 4 games at Chicago have resulted in a 1.59 ERA. The Indians are 38-14 in their last 52 as a favorite while the White Sox are 4-11 in their last 15 home games vs. a RH starter. They have a .247 average and .661 ops vs. Masterson over 178 AB. Phillip Humber is the real reason I got Cleveland here. I said he got lucky in who he was facing at home which led to his great first half. He's certainly come down to earth over his last 5 starts he's allowed 22 ER over just 29.1 IP while giving up a whopping 40 hits and 7 walks. That's a 6.75 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP which is just crazy to even think about here. Yes he had to face the Tigers, Red Sox and Yankees over those 5 starts and I said the reason he's been lucky was he was averaging an easy opponent at home, but vs. the Twins and Orioles who are ranked 28th and 13th vs. RHP he gave up 11 hits a piece 22 total over 9.2 innings while surrendering 10 ER. I think Humber is past what he can throw on a season but the Sox have no choice but to throw him out there. These two teams are pretty much even on everything else but the pitching match up heavily favors the Indians and we are not seeing it that way in the line.

Braves +121 (3* play) Love the Braves as the Giants haven't been hitting lefties all year. Minor has really been under rated as his BABPIP is nearing .400 which is just flat out bad luck. I see good value despite the Braves going up against Lincecum as he is so past due for a poor start and he's had control issues in his last few starts giving up 10 walks over his last three vs. the Braves and his last two in Atlanta 11.1 IP giving up 13 hits and 7 ER on 5 walks. Giants bullpen is shaky right now especially with Wilson gone which gives the Braves a huge advantage. Braves just .209 vS. LHP last 10 games with 1.53 runs per 9. Braves .273 5.28 runs per9 vs. RHP over that period and are 30-14 in their last 44 vs. RH starters. I like the Braves to continue that here today.

Brewers +108 (3* Early bird play) Kind of hard not to back the Brewers at home these days and with Muchinskis behind home plate I'm buying into it as the home team is 42-15 in his last 57 behind the dish. Kershaw is a real ace, but he's a different pitcher on the road and August is his worst month as he's 2-7 over the last 3 years with a 3.75 ERA. Brewers are scoring 5.99 runs per 9 vs. LHP this year and are ranked 6th in OPS during day games while the Dodgers are ranked 16th and 23rd overall vs. RHP where they face Estrada for the first time. I think Estrada can be good in this spot vs. the Dodgers a team that struggles vs. RHP. Brewers have had success against Kershaw in the past including his last start where he went 1.1 innings gave up 5 hits and 7 ER. Fielder has a HR in limited at bats and Weeks/Hart/Braun are a combined 8-21 off the south paw. Brewers just on fire at home can't lose and I'll back them as dogs.

Love the Rangers. Ervin Santana has been red hot of late giving up just 4 ER over his last 5 starts. I feel he is so past due for a bad start and wouldn't it be perfect against the scorching hot Rangers who are #2 in OPS vs. RHP and 22-7 in their last 29 vs. RH ptichers. Santana's last 3 vs. Texas resulted in a 7.79 ERA where as CJ Wilson has a 2.68 ERA on the road and in his last 6 vs. the Angels has a 5-1 record and 1.38 ERA. Angels have a .227 average and .652 OPS over 211 AB. Rangers have a .298 average and .828 OPS over 302 at bats vs. Santana. Cruz and Beltre have a total of 7 HR among them and Andrus, Young and Kinsler are a combined 52-135 good for a .385 average.

Like the Reds here tonight they face a lefty and they have dominated lefties this year they are #1 in the league in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring 7.40 runs per 9 in their last 10 gamse vs. south paws. Reds also come with their ace in this game and the Nationals have a .206 average with a .547 OPS vs. him combined over 63 at bats. He's 2.47 ERA away is quite impressive along with his 2.07 ERA during night starts.

Red Sox -106 (3* Early Bird Special) Love the Sox here today despite the pitching advantage the Rays have. They are too good at home vs. LHP scoring over 7 runs per 9 vs. LHP and are #1 team with an .876 OPS during day games. Coming off a loss last night in game 2 of the double header look for the Red Sox to beat up on the lefty price. They are 17-5 in their last 22 home games vs. LH starters and 23-6 in their last 29 overall. They are 57-25 in their last 82 home games vs. the Rays.

Mets +115 (3* play) Mets got back in the win column last night and I think they go back to back beating the Padres again as John Niese has dominated the Padres over his first two career starts vs.t hem going 16 IP giving up just 2 ER. Padres are one of the worst home teams in the league with just a .606 OPS as the Mets have been one of the best road hitting teams as the Mets are #3 with a .727 OPS. Look for the Mets to get on a little role here against a worse team in San Diego who they have owned of late.

Indians +116 (3* play); Jimenez seems to really be re-energized as he went 8 innings gave up just 0 ER in his last start vs. a very good hitting team in the Tigers. He now faces a below average White Sox offense and he already dominated them at home in Colorado where he struggled this year as he gave up just 6 base runners over 7 innings and 2 ER. White Sox are 5-15 in their last 20 starts vs. AL Central with Floyd on the mound. Floyd continues to really have issues at home as he is posting a 7.06 ERA at home. The Indians are 10-3 in their last 13 game #1's. Cleveland on the road has more runs per 9 and a better bullpen ERA and overall are a better team in my opinion.

Cardinals -139 *4.5* MLB POD I love that the Cardinals are coming off a loss here as they really step it up in these situations .273 average 5.37 runs per 9 vs. RHP, and over his career Chris Carpenter has also stepped up when his team has needed him. Carpenter has dominated the Pirates over his career 12-2 in 17 starts where the Cardinals have gone 15-2 in those games with a 2.24 ERA. Since June 23rd he has a 7-1 record and a 2.60 ERA and though he makes a start on the road I"m confident he has a great advantage the Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. RH starter following a win they are scoring just 3.37 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Expect the Cardinals to get revenge on last night's loss. Jeff Karstens has dominated the Cardinals but is still jsut 1-2 in three starts from 2010 where he gave up 3 ER over 18 IP. That still leaves 1/3 of the game open to the bullpen as he's gone 6 IP in each start. Pirates have been great at home with their bullpen but over their last 10 games they have a 6.59 ERA. Karstens also has struggled of late 7.17 ERA over his last 3 and in the month of August his last 11 starts in this month along with 6 bullpen appearances over the last 3 years have resulted in an ERA over 5. Cardinals are not the same team he saw a year ago with Berkman this offense is the #1 OPS team vs. RH pitching in the National League with a .765 OPS while the Pirates who are also facing a righty are ranked 26th in the league with a .669. They've struggled to score runs at home and Carpenter will keep that under control. Cardinals are still in a race for the playoffs and they need this game.

Red Sox have dominated during day games this year 26-10 on the year and they are scoring almost 3 runs per game more than their opponents during day games. Rays have struggled to put up runs in these contests and Lester has a 4-0 record and a 1.60 ERA during day games this year and his last 4 starts vs. the Rays he has a 1.73 ERA. Red Sox are 22-7 in their last 29 game 1's of double headers while the Rays are 3-8 in their last 11 game 1 of a dobule header. James Shields struggled in his last road start giving up 12 hits and 10 ER to Oakland. Against Boston last time out he went 6 innings gave up 6 ER so I expect some of the same as Boston is #1 vs. RHP and #1 in OPS in day games.

We will continue to back a very hot hot team if the line has some value and the Brewers have been unbeatable at home this year and I think they have the pitching advantage again today. First off the Dodgers are 25th ranked team in hitting vs. LHP with a .674 OPS vs. LHP where the Brewers are 12th, but at home the Brewers are 15-6 in their last 21 home vs. LH starters and are hitting .286 with 6.18 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home over their last 10 vs lhp they are hitting .368 and scoring 11.12 runs per 9. Braun/Fielder/McGehee are 24-64 vs. Ted Lilly with 4 home runs. Collectively Brewers have .873 ops vs. Lilly so I think we can expect another big night for the Brewers.

ATL/SF U7 (3* PLAY) Bumgarner goes up against Tim Hudson and both have been hot over their last 3 starts. Braves struggle vs. LHP as they are ranked 29th in OPS vs. LHP. I see a low scoring game as Hudson has dominated the Giants over his career.

gers -141 (4.5* mlb pod) Porcello off a poor start is bound to rebound as he should be fresh. His last 3 starts vs. the Twins has led to a 2.55 ERA and he's going up against them as the 28th ranked team in OPS vs. RHP. He goes up against Francsco Liriano who has had a nightmare vs. the Tigers. Tiger hitter have .337 average and .967 OPS in 187 at bats while the Twins are at .264 and .744 OPS vs. Porcello. Tigers also have the better bullpen coming into the game. Tigers are #6 vs. lhp this year .747 OPS and are 13-3 when Porcello is pitching vs. a losing team over his last 16. Twins are 3-12 in Liriano's last 15 starts vs. a winning team. Overall the Tigers who just made a trade for Delmon Young formerly with the Twins, and should have every advantage on Monday.

Rangers -124 (4.5* MLB POD); Rangers stay on fire and they'll need to do that Sunday too because the Angels are just 3 games out. They'll face a starter they had a year ago in Rich Harden who earlier in this year gave up 5 ER over 5 innings while giving up 8 hits and 2 walks for a 2.00 WHIP. He'll go up against Matt Harrison who has been dominant during day starts 4-2 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. His 5 career starts vs. the A's he has a 2.15 ERA and the A's are ranked 24th in OPS vs. LHP with a .678 while the Rangers are #2 vs. RHP with a .781. Texas has a .304 average and .884 OPS vs. Harden with Young/Hamilton/Moreland/Kinsler wiht a combined 18-47 off him. Harden has largely struggled during day games in the last 3 years he has 29 starts with a 4.61 ERA over 1.5 runs higher than his ERA during night starts. Texas is 24-6 in their last 30 as favorites 16-5 in their last 21 vs. AL west and Oakland is 15-31 in their last 46 as dogs.

Even at -180 this is too good to pass up. Something is int he water the way Milwaukee plays at home and they go up against the Pirates who they have dominated and Charlie Morton in his last 2 starts vs. the Brewers has a 4.39 WHIP and a 24.94 ERA and Brewers have a .929 OPS vs. him in their career. Marcum gave up just 4 hits and 0 ER in his only start (this year) vs. the Pirates.

Reds -148 (3* MLB Play) Reds have dominated LHP so much that they are now #1 in OPS. Wade Leblanc makes another start and he has a 5.27 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Reds are the most dangerous team he has faced so far they have a .832 OPS vs. LHP and it is even better at home where they are scoring 7.37 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Even better over their last 10 games with a .294 average 8.71 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Leblanc will most likely struggle as the Reds are also #3 with a .801 Day OPS, while the Padres are 25th. They too face a lefty in Dontrelle Willis who has actually looked pretty good since being called up. Reds are 14-3 in their last 17 game #3's and 32-13 in their last 45 home games vs. LH starter.

Red Sox -143 (3* play) Hard not to back the Sox these days and if it's under -150 I think you just have to follow them regardless even when they are out west playing against King Felix. First of all king felix has not looked the same this year at home as he has a 3.61 ERA at night and a 3.68 ERA at night. Beckett has been far better 2.38 ERA away and 2.08 at night with an incredible 0.95 whip. He's 7-0 vs. Seattle in the last 7 game starts with a 1.93 ERA. Also Seattle 29th in the league vs. RHP in OPS while Boston is #1 nearly .200 higher which is almost a joke. Felix ha sstruggled in his last two vs. Boston with nearly a 2.00 WHIP. Pedroia, Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez are 27-85.

Orioles +120 (4* MLB POD) Love the Orioles Jeremy Guthrie really has pitched better than his record has said. He gets a night start this time around where he has a 3.96 ERA on the year and he goes up against the Tigers who have hit a cold stretch with the bats just 3.47 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Baltiomore is also backed by a bullpen with a 2.06 ERA over the last 10 games and they are more than due for a win. Guthrie's last 2 starts vs. the Tigers has resulted in just 9 base runners over 15 innings pitched and 0 ER. I look for him to continue on that success and win this game as Max Scherzer has a 5.20 ERA on the road this year and Baltimore hits righties well at home 4.67 runs per 9 and collectively they have 70 at bats vs. Scherzer with a .343 average and .913 ops.

Red Sox - 151 (4.5* MLB POD) John Lackey has been red hot and the Red Sox are the best road team. Lackey got it done against the Yankees who hit righties a hell of a lot better than the Mariners who are 29th in the league in OPS .634 v. RHP. I love Lackey's history vs. the Mariners 9-2 with a 1.95 ERA over his last 12 and he's 5-0 with a 1.45 in his last 6 in Seattle. Red Sox are still one of the best hitting teams on the road vs. RHP scoring 5.47 runs per 9 while the Mariners are scoring just 3.25. I think the Red Sox crusie as they face Blake Beavan for a second time. They had 9 hits off him the first time and he's lucky to escape with just 3 ER. The rookie has an ERA under 3, but xfip is 4.28. He's only striking out 3.70 per 9 and he's been lucky with a .257 babip. He's going to come back down to life this is a guy that had a 4.45 ERA in AAA this year and a 6.47 last year.

[b]Indians -147 (3.5* mlb oe play)[/b]
Carl Pavano has been awful on the road 6.19 ERA 1.50 WHIP. Though he's had success vs. the Indians I don't think it's enough not to justify a play on Justin Masterson who has been tearing up the majors this year. He has a 2.81 ERA at home and gets to face off against the Twins for a third time this year after losing the first two contests despite giving up just 2 ER over 15.2 IP I think he's motivated to pitch well tonight especiall after his last outing of just 37 pitches. He should be ready to go he's 8-3 with a 2.42 ERA at night. Indians are 24-9 in their last 33 home as favorites and 37-15 in their last 52 overall. This is no longer the Twins division and the Indians are in a pennant race.

Cardinals -126 (4.5* MLB POD) Chris Carpenter is one of those players I will back after having a bad outing vs. a team. Carpenter has had two bad starts against the red hot Brewers this year. Both were on the road ironically and Carpenter has been so much better at home this year with a 2.88 ERA. We backed Carp twice this year on MAX plays when he was coming off a rough start against that same team on the road in his previous start. He's a great pitcher to follow in that situation and he came up with gold so I can't help but to back him here on Thursday. Both starts he could not avoid the big inning. In his start in June he cruised through 5 innings giving up 1 ER and then 4 in the 6th. IN his start vs. the Brewers in July he cruised through 4 innings 0 ER and then gave up 5 earned runs. I think those are the type of things he can avoid pitching at home. He faces off against Gallardo who has a 4.14 ERA on the road. He was dominant in his one start vs. St. Louis but he had never won against them prior to that so I expect St. Louis to come out and avoid a sweep by the worst road team in the league that all of a sudden has found a way to win on the road. Gallardo has a 4.77 ERA in 8 career starts vs. the Cardinals. He is 5-18 in his last 23 road starts as a dog. Cardinals are scoring nearly a run better vs. RHP per 9 innings at home than the Brewers are on the road and have an ERA over a run out of their bullpen better at home than the Brewers have on the road. I think Carpenter will put some water on the Brewers fire tonight.

Reds -130 3.5* EARLY BIRD Cueto vs. Chacin nice little match up but the Reds have been killer during day games 5.37 runs per game with a .806 ops and 22-21 record while the Rockies are the worst in baseball 12-25 with a 5.32 ERA. Rockies won't have Helton or Tulo in this game so it should make things much easier for Cueto who has dominated during the day 2.06 ERA this year and 1.51 ERA at home. Chacin 4.82 ERA during day does not translate well here in my opinion.

TIGERS +121 (4* POD) Love the pitching match up... We keep thinking Ubaldo Jimenez is going to be the guy from last year. His problem has been his control as he now has 9 walks in his last 3 starts. In his previous starts vs. the Tigers over 3 years he's been bad with a 5.63 ERA. His last 3 starts have not been good and I think he struggles again here as the Tigers have a combined 47 AB with a .362 average and .837 OPS. Much better than the Indians can sayagainst Rick Porcello who they have 139 AB with a .223 average and .636 ops against. Tigers are #8 vs. RHP in OPS and have lost 12 straigth against the Indians on the road..That record is so far due to die and I think it does here as the Tigers are 20-8 in Porcello's last 28 starts. He's 6-2 with a 3.65 ERA on the road and is 6-2 in 8 career starts vs. the Indians with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.64 ERA at Cleveland..

Phillies -124 (3.5* MLB EB play) Phillies continue to be the best in the National League and the odds on this are just to great to pass up. Especially since teh Phillies have a .770 OPS during day games scoring 5 runs per game while the Dodgers are scoring just 3.64. Dodgers are 16-18 with a 4.18 ERA during day games where the Phillies are 28-12 and have the #5 ERA at 3.12. They are scoring more than 1 run per game and allowing more than 1 run less than the Dodgers who are ranked 25th in OPS .676 this year vs. RHP. Vance Worley has shown no signs of slowing down and I expect him to be able to get through the Dodger line up especially early as they have never seen him before. Billingsley on the other hand has struggled vs. the Phillies who have 81 total at bats and a .309 average and .902 ops. Billingsley main struggles are walks as he's walked 3.72 batters per 9. Phillies are #3 in walks vs. RHP and are even more patient during day starts which could lead to a lot of good hitter counts and guys on base here today.

Cardinals -118 (2* play) Shocker this is as in his two starts vs. the Brewers Edwin Jackson has given up 6 HR. Well how is he still a favorite. Well Marcum, hasn't been any better with 9 ER in 13 IP vs. the Cardinals in two starts this year. Those were both at home and now he makes a road start where he's been good, but the Cardinals can hit righties they are #4 in OPS in the league while the Brewers are 23rd with a .674 OPS on the road where they are just a different team. I still like Edwin Jackson's stuff and it's just unreal how good the Brewers have been at home so I'm not surprised he got blown up a bit. Cards definitely have a bullpen advantage here to and are 39-19 in their last 58 home games as a favorite.

Cubs -161 3* play Fading Wang again here he did look better in his last start, but i'm not buying it especially since he is facing a hot Cubs team right now and Matt Garza has been hot with an ERA under 3.00 at home and the Nats are 21st with a .698 ops vs. RHP.

Blue Jays -137 (4.5* MLB POD) Love Cecil here he has a 2-0 record 1.64 ERA and 0.95 whip in his last 3 starts he's looking like the old Brett Cecil. He did it against the Rays 9th in OPS vs. LHP and 2 starts vs. the Rangers #5 in OPS vs. lhp. Now he faces the A's who are ranked 25th. He'll go up against Rich Harden who has a 5.74 ERA in his career vs. the Jays and has never been a good pitcher on turf. IN two starts last year he had 11 walks, 11 K's and 8 ER in just 5.1 IP vs. the Jays and that's very typical of Harden. He gives up home runs, strikes out a bunch and walks a bunch. Jays fit right in here that's probably why they have had so much success in their career off him. They are 6th overall in walks so I expect lots of baserunners tonight and for hte Jays to win as they are 24-8 following an off day 11-3 in their last 14 meetings at home vs. the A's. They are also 17-5 in Cecil's last 22 game 1 starts while the A's are an awful 3-10 in their last 13 rd starts vs. LH starters and 19-47 in their last 66 as a dog.

Red Sox -111 (4* MLB POD) Not a lot on the card today we like just one play and it's the Sox. Despite the pitching match up on favor being in favor of the Twins as Scott Baker has been dynamite at home 1.78 ERA. He has not had the pleasure of facing a team like the Red Sox whoa re #1 in OPS vs. RHP and on the road are hitting .262 with 5.52 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Twins at home have been awful this year and have a .250 average 3.70 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They are 28th wtih a .657 OPS vs. RHP. Wakefield should have the advantage in this one in my opinion and that's why he is oddly a favorite. When he's a favorite -110 to -150 the Red Sox are 37-18 in his last 55. Twins are 17-38 in their last 55 vs. AL east and Wakefield has a 2.40 ERA in his last 3 years in the month of August. Finally the Twins bullpen is not very good with a 5.16 ERA at home.

Giants -128 (4.5* mlb pod)
Oswalt will return from his stint on the DL to make his first start since June and I think he'll be a little rusty this time around. He'll face off against Tim Lincecum who is 16-8 in the last 3 years during day starts and 5-1 when he faces off against Roy Oswalt. Carlos Beltran is 10-27 in his career for a .370 average against Oswalt. Lincecum's last 4 starts at home vs. the Phillies have been domination as he posts a 1.72 ERA over those starts and the Phillies hitters combined have 154 ab against him for a .175 average and .575 OPS.

Cardinals -120 (4.5* play) Any other day this one is the POD, but I love the Twins. I love Carpenter who has had sub par starts vs. the Marlins in his career, but a couple of guys that he struggles against are out of the line up and the Marlins do not hit righties quite the same at home compared to lefties as they are 6-21 in their last 27 home vs. a RH starter. More importantly Ricky Nolasco is 8-20 in his last 28 home starts and the Cardinals have a .495 average and 1.362 OPS in 91 at bats. The three big boys of Berkman, Pujols and HOlliday are 21-41 with 5 HR. Trouble is coming Nolasco's way this time as he has a 9.00 ERA in 5 starts vs. the Cards.

Money Line

Pick:
Twins -120 (5.5* MLB POD) Love the Twins here we are getting great value as Zach Stewart starts for the White Sox. Pavano has a 12.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and that's why the line is where it is. A closer look he did have to face Texas and Detroit in his last 3 starts both are in the top 6 in OPS vs. RHP and he was on the road. Pavano at home is a different monster he has a 1.20 WHIP and 3.32 ERA during home starts and he has plenty of success vs. the White Sox who are ranked 19th vs. RHP in terms of OPS. His last 2 he's got a 0.93 WHIP and 1.69 ERA vs. the Sox and he's 8-2 in his last 10 with 4 complete games and a 3.07 ERA. Last 3 years August has been a good month where he posts a 3.99 ERA in 14 starts. Twins bullpen has been great 1.42 ERA over the last 10 games and they are scoring nearly 5 runs per game while the Sox are really struggling .227 3.47 runs per 9 vs. RHP and a 6.91 bullpen in hte last 10. That's going to be a big issue with Stewart on the mound as he has two road starts at Atlanta and Detroit and he's got a 2.38 WHIP giving up 19 hits 4 walks in 9.2 innings pitched. I think he struggles here the Twins are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. a losing team and 44-18 in their last 62 home as a favorite -110 to -150 and they also are 24-7 in their last 31 home vs. the White Sox after losing last night this is a good time to play them as I don't see this struggling White Sox offense winning two games in a row.

Rangers -150 *4.5* MLB POD Jimenez makes his first start in a new league and it comes against the one of the best offenses in a not so friendly hitters ball park in Texas. Rangers are #2 in OPS vs. RHP and are even more dangerous over their last 10 they have a .315 average and 6.15 runs per 9 and have been on fire all year at home and they are 16-5 in their last 21 meetings. Not many have seen JImenez but his control problems should lead to a lot of pitches early which will get handed over to the bullpen which advantage to Texas. Cleveland is 9-21 in their last 30 as a dog to +150. Jimenez 6 innings over last two pitches has given up 9 ER and has not been the same type player all year. INdians face a lefty and they are 21st in OPS vs. LHP. Holland threw a complete game shut out earlier in the year so I expect more domination for him as the Indians have just a .194 average in 31 at bats and a .445 OPS.

Yankees +140 3* play This is all about value. Colon has been solid with a 2.81 ERA and his velocity is still up there. Ortiz/Crawford combined are just 10-75 and the team overall through 175 at bats have a .194 average and .541 ops vs. Colon. Yankees are red hot over their last 10 they have a .347 average and 9.66 runs per 9 vs. LHP. They are the #1 team in the league vs. LHP with a .827 OPS. On the road this year they're averaging 6.41 runs per 9 vs. LHP. John Lester makes just his 3rd start since coming off the DL and finally he gets a real challenge after a couple easy opponents in his first two.

Yankees -113(4.5* MLB POD) Yankees are on fire right now and still remain #3 in the league with a .775 OPS vs. RHP which they will face again on Thursday in Phillip Humber. Humber is 0-3 in his last 3 starts with a 9.00 ERA, but we still get great value here because Humber dominated the Yankees in his debut. Yankees always struggle vs. teams their first time around so I

Pirates -134 (3* play) Pirates have gone ice cold but I think this is still an ice cold despite them falling to 1-8 over their last 9 games. It

Rangers -135 (3.5* Early Bird Special) Rangers about to get swept in a 4 game series? I don

Cubs -105 (4.5* MLB POD) Garza is still coming in as an under rated starter and I love it. Though he gave up 12 hits to the Pirates the first time he saw them in the early season he also struck out 12 batters only gave up 3 ER over 7 innings. Pitching in Pittsburgh is going to be different for him and he can still dominate a team with K's the same way. I expect him to really pitch a gem with only 89 pitches in his last start especially since the Pirates really struggle with the bats at home and are 26th in the league with a .659 OPS vs. RHP. Garza struggles but he did against the Cards the #1 team in NL vs. RHP. Charlie Morton goes for the Pirates and I think he's hit his wall he's got 12 starts in August over the last 3 years with a 6.44 ERA. IN 4 career starts vs. the Cubs he has a 7.86 ERA though he's been better of late. Morton though in his last 2 starts has a 2.57 WHIP and 9.1 innings.

Braves -147 (3.5* Early Bird Special) Love the Braves today after recent struggles I think they are ready to come back against Ching Ming Wang who is not going to go deep into the game regardless of how well he pitches. Braves actually hit righties hard this year so I"m more confident in this match up than yesterday's vs. Lannan a lefty who they struggle against. Beachy takes the mound and he gave up 2 hits in his last start and looks to close the season hot he'll face a Nationals team that is hot of late, but during day games they average 3.48 runs per game and have a .642 OPS ranked 28th during day games where they are 19-23. I don't think a day game after a night start is good for Wang and the Braves 12th in OPS vs. RHP are similar to the Mets who got to him right away. Uggla and Freeman are red hot riding 24 and 17 game hitting streaks. Atlanta is 18-8 in their last 26 game #3's.

Twins +154 (2.5* dog) Sanatana was perfect in his last start and this is a perfectly good time to fade him after such a high emotional win. In fact he's given up just 3 hits over his last two starts. IN his last 3 vs. the Twins he's given up 19 along with 5 walks and 15 ER over 15.2 innings pitched. JOe Mauer is 11-19 in his career off him and Duensing who goes up against him has been solid with a 3.48 ERA on the road this year and has 1 start vs. the Angels and a good one going 8 innings giving up 1 ER. Twins are 17-8 in their last 25 as a dog +110 to +150.

Yankees -103 (4.5* MLB POD) Yankees are the #1 team in OPS vs. LHP and even without Arod they continue to hammer away 22-7 in their last 29 vs. LH starters. They face Johny Danks who they have beat up in the past. CAno, Swisher, TEixera are a combined 14-29 with 2 HR off Danks. Even though Granderson has struggled vs. him big time 1-23 he has a .956 OPS vs. LEFTIES this year and is a completely different hitter vs. the south paws than in the past. Phil Hughes has struggled but this is an opportunity to turn it around as the White Soix over last 10 games are hitting .183 vs. RHP scoring just 3.23 runs per game whil ethe Yanks are hitting .319 vs. LHP scoring 8.71 runs over the same period. Yankees are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings and I expect them to win this one big.

Reds -125 (3* play) #2 team vs. LHP this year are the Reds going up against Wandy Rodriguez who didn't get run support before when they had Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Also the Astros won last night so I don't see them pulling off back to back wins vs. the Reds who are the best in the National League with a .820 OPS vs. LHP this year. Bailey also dominated the Astros in two starts this year and the Astros have a .195 average and .434 OPS vs. him this year. REds over the last 10 games are hitting .289 with 7.90 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Cinci also has the advantage int he bullpen 3.78 on the road compared to the Astros 4.89 at home. REds are 25-10 in the last 35 meetings.

Brewers -125 (4* MLB POD) Brewers are the best home team in the majors and they got their ace going up against the Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter. The home team usually wins the game between these two of late and I think it happens again tonight. Carpenter has not been good on the road this year and he's really struggled vs. the Brewers of late over his last 3 starts he's given up 17 ER over just 14 innings. Ricky Weeks is 6-10 with 3 home runs while Fielder is 6-17 with 2 home runs. Brewers are scoring 5.36 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home and are 36-15 in their last 51 home vs. RH starters and 39-14 in their last 53 as a home favorite. Cardinals are 5-13 in Carps last 18 starts on 4 days rest and 5-11 in his last 16 road starts. Greinke finally getting some luck that he didn't have earlier and has a 1.40 ERA over his last 4 starts he's got 34 K's over 25 innings and can dominate this match up. He's got an ERA under 3 in his last two starts vs. the Cardinals over the last two years.

Red Sox +111 (4.5* MLB POD) Sox again. Despite their troubles vs. the White Sox we cashed in last night on our max play and we plan for the same result here today as when you cut to the core of this match up the true advantages are on the side of the men from Boston. Let's first start by saying the Red Sox have dominated day games this year they are 24-9 with a 3.71 ERA and have scored 6.55 runs per day game. They have the #1 OPS with an incredible .875 during day starts. Compared with the Sox who are scoring 4.18 runs per day game and have a 3.79 ERA and are 21-19. Just not quite even with what the Red Sox are doing. Next both teams are facing LHP today as Boston is #3 with a .816 OPS very close behind the Reds and Yankees while the White Sox have really struggled with a .668 OPS ranked 25th vs. LHP. Now the pitching match up looks like it's in favor of the Mark Buehrle and the White Sox but I beg to differ. Buehrle has been great at home with a 2.25 ERA over 10 starts, but a closer look and we realize how lucky he's been. First of all he's faced some very bad teams that can't hit lefties like the Red Sox including the A's twice, Twins, and Dodgers all ranked over 20th in OPS vs. LHP. His two starts vs. the Tigers who are ranked 7th are the only top 10 team he's faced at home and he gave up 10 hits in each start very lucky not to give up more runs than he did. He faced the Angels and Orioles both ranked 14th and 16th respectfully and again he gave up 12 base runners in each game and was able to escape giving his team a chance to win. Very lucky in my opinion. Red Sox are the cream of the crop and they have hit Buehlre very hard over their career as they have a combined 236 at bats with a .339 average and .856 OPS. McDonald, Ellsbury, Ortiz, Pedroia, Crawford all int he line up today are 46-115 batting .400 vs. him and Varitek is 10-31 with a lot of success vs. Buehrle. Add in Adrian Gonzalez .301 vs. LHP and Youkilis who is hitting .331 vs. LHP and this just spells trouble for Buehrle as the Red Sox are hitting .341 scoring 12.27 runs per 9 over the last 10 games vs. LHP. They are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. LH starters. Now to Boston's starter. I won't get into as deep, but Andrew Miller is only 26 coming off an 80 pitch performance so he's fresh to go in this one. He was a highly touted prospect and I think he still can be a huge factor for the Red Sox this season. You look at his ERA and you would stay away from this match up, but he's been bad in two starts vs. Rays and Royals who are 8th and 13th in OPS vs. LHP. The Sox are 25th so he finally gets a match up where he can cruise and dominate. His other 5 starts with the Sox this year he's 5-0 with a 2.86 ERA so he can pitch effectively especially vs. White Sox who are hitting .225 with just 2.23 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. Boston's bullpen will be needed in this one and they are well rested and have a 2.59 ERA over their last 10 games.

Braves-150 (3* Early Bird play) Braves here at home are 56-25 in their last 81 home vs. RH starters. Their line up is still without McCann and Chipper but the ky players Freeman, Prado, Heyward, and Uggla all have hit right handed pitching much better than lefties. Between Prado, Heyward, and Uggly 35 of their 41 home runs have come vs. RHP just to put that in perspective. Freeman is hitting .322 vs. RHP. Nolasco has struggled vs. the Braves and has a 5.21 ERA during day starts this year. Hanson has a 3.02 ERA at home and in his last 3 vs. the Marlins 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. In his 8 starts vs. the Marlins he has a 2.32 ERA. Florida has 109 AB with a .202 average and .654 OPS. They are 5-23 in their last 28 vs. a winning team. Both pitchers are on 4 days rest. Nolasco is 2-9 in his last 11 on 4 days rest while Hanson is 10-1.

Rockies -129 (3.5* play) Jiminez MUST START! - Just in case he gets pulled because of a trade or something. We like Jimenez who before his last start had a 2.18 ERA in his last 3 starts. His last start was vs. the Dbacks who can actually hit. We can't say the same for the Padres who are 29th with a .603 OPS in their home games they are awful vs. RHP 30th in the league with a .617 OPS. Colorado is 10th with a .731 OPS vs. RHP. Harrang has a 4.73 ERA in 8 career starts vs. the Rockies but in his last two including this year and last year he's given up 11 ER in 6.2 IP with a 3.01 WHIP. Ty Wiggington is 6-12 vs. Harrang.

Red Sox -147 (5.5* MLB POD) Sox have struggled vs. the White Sox just 2-14 in their last 16 meetings, but today I'll tell you why they are coming out of it. Phillip Humber has solid numbers right 3.42 ERA at home. Well he now faces the #1 hitting team vs. RHP in Boston which has .807 OPS vs. RHP this year and have over 5 runs per game vs. RHP on the road. Humber has 8 home starts. The best team as far as hitting goes vs. RHP that he faced was the Orioles who are ranked 10th, and the next 7 are ranked 19, 23, 24, 25,27 and 29th. It's no wonder he has pitched well with an average opponent ranked 22nd in OPS vs. RHP. He's also been largely lucky with an extremely low .250 BABIP. Now he faces a legitimate hitting team vs. RHP. His last start vs. Boston was solid, but he still gave up 4 ER 9 hits and a walk in nearly 8 innings. I don't think we can expect that today from a pitcher who faces a hungry Boston team that has lost two games in a row. Also he hasn't started in 13 days as he temporarily moved to the bullpen. Look for him to struggle early in this one. Lester on the other hand has struggled big time in his last 2 starts vs. the White Sox in his previous 4 he has a 3.03 ERA. White Sox just aren't hitting lefties this year they're ranked 25th with a .670 OPS vs. LHP. They have a .260 average and .766 OPS vs. Lester despite dominating him in his last two starts. Lester is 7-1 this year with a 2.80 ERA in road starts he threw under 100 pitches in his last start so he's real fresh and over 2008 to 2010 he was 7-4 2.79 ERA in July starts. White Sox at home this year just .236 average 3.39 runs per 9 at home vs. LHP.

Mets -105 (3.5* play) Mets have been great on the road and are 5-1 in their last 6 at Washington who have struggled since Davey Johnson took over. You wouldn't know if I did not tell you but the Mets are #3 in the National League #7 overall in OPS vs. RHP with a .743 OPS. They face Jason Marquis who they have had success with 165 AB .321 average .877 OPS. Jason Bay who has looked great the last two days should continue that success as he's 16-43 vs. Marquis with 5 HR. Actually the key players for the Mets are all over .300 vs. Marquis. Reyes/Bay,Wright/Murphy are a combined 43-115 for a .374 average. Washington faces knuckleballer RA Dickey and they are 23rd in MLB with a .681 OPS vs. RHP. Dickey in 5 game starts the last two years vs. the Nationals have a 2.64 ERA. Mets have scored 8.24 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5 games and the Nationals are at just 3 runs and have a 5.60 bullpen. Nationals 16-35 in their last 51 saturday games.

Rangers -130 (4* mlb oe play) Love the Rangers today as they look to revenge the complete game shutout Cecil threw on them a short while ago. Texas will bounce back because their bats are still hot and they are #5 team in OPS vs. LHP. We see it time and time again where a average pitcher dominates a team and follows that up with a poor performance. In his prior two starts he gave up 15 ER over just 7 innings pitched to the Rangers so the potential to get burned tonight is high especially since he's yet to throw well at home on the tur 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA. Ogando has been solid vs. the Blue Jays and pitched well enough to win each start. Rangers have hit .362 and scoring 7.50 runs per 9 over last 5 games while the Jays bullpen has struggled 5.82 ERA over that period so Rangers huge advantage and I like the value. 17-5 in their last 22 game #1s are the Rangers while the Blue Jays are 4-11 in their last 15 hom games vs. a winning team.

Mets -111 (4.5* MLB POD) Ching Ming Wang will make his debut for the first time since 2009 and I think he's going to have all kinds of trouble he has not been good at all in his rehab starts and the Mets are just red hot right now. Mets hit righties better #7 in the league with a .743 OPS this year and are scoring 4.90 runs per 9 on the road vs. RHP and are ranked #7 with a .730 OPS in road games this year where they have played above .500. They send Dillon Gee out there with 2 starts vs. Washington 14.2 IP 4 hits 6walks 1 ER. Mets are hot right now Bay has started to come around with extra base hits and David Wright is red hot since coming back and Lucas Duda quietly is replacing Beltran quite nicely with a .441 average and .558 obp over his last 15 games.

Rangers -152 (4.5* MLB POD); The Rangers lost yesterday and it's a perfect spot to take advantage of some value on a bounce back game. Rangers have averaged over 6.5 runs per 9 over their last 10 games combined and go up against a strong righty in Scott Baker who has a 0 ERA over his last 3 starts. Twins are being cautious with him as he just came off DL going 5 IP in last two starts so that means bullpen for the Twins and they are among the worst in the league in bullpen ERA. Baker has 3 starts at Texas over his career and gave up 12 ER in 16.2 innings. Texas is #2 in the league in OPS vs. RHP with .787 OPS while the Twins face a lefty and are ranked 19th .690. Harrison had a good start at Minny earlier this year 6 innigns 5 hits 1 ER and will try to continue what he's been doing of late. Texas is 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a RH starter while the Twins are 8-18 in Baker's last 26 as a road under dog. Beltre/Kinsler/Cruz are a combined 20-61 off Baker with 3 HR. Today's home umpire Muchlinski has umped a home team win 38 out of his last 52 games.

Pirates +151 (2.5* DOG) Two tough losses for this team, but they hang in there against a Braves team that continues to struggle to hit. Kevin Correia is 9-2 on the road this year with a 2.85 ERA whiel Lowe is 2-1 with a5.04 ERA at home and has a 5.21 ERA at night. Now he's never lost vs. the Pirates, but McKutchen is 5-12 vs. Lowe with a lot of success and I believe this is the game the Pirates take as Atlanta is scoring just 1.98 runs per 9 over their last 10 games and their bullpen has not been as dominant over their last 10 games.

Dbacks +105 (4.5* MLB POD) Well unbelievably errors were the cause for our MLB POD loss yet again last night as Chacin gave up just 1 ER and the Rockies lost 3-2. Frustrating that's 4 games in a row, but we really can't predict the fielding errors. Tonight we go with the Dbacks who continue to play well. They'll face Cory Luebke who has been great so far, but I think I know why. He's faced the Giants twice, Braves, Mariners, and Phillies all who are among the worst in the league in OPS vs. LHP. Actually put them all together and they average 26th ranking with none of them in the top 20 in OPS vs. LHP. Now he faces a Diamondbacks team that has scored 25 runs in their last 3 games and are #9 in the league in OPS vs. LHP and 7-3 in the last 10 match ups. They also throw Ian Kennedy out there who has 19 K 0 ER in 12 IP in two career starts at San Diego and has a 2.25 ERA overall in 4 starts vs. the Padres with 32K's in 24 innings. Oh by the way the Padres are awful vs. RHP especially at home with a .202 average and 2.68 runs per 9 this season. They are 16-35 in their last 51 home games vs. a RH starter. Padres are 30th in the league in OPS vs. RHP with a .616.

Rockies +145 (4* MLB POD) Love the Rockies in this spot. Chacin has absolutely dominated the Dodgers in his career over his last 5 starts vs. LA they have a 0.77 ERA and just a .632 OPS lifetime. Kershaw over his last 3 starts vs. the Rockies has not been good giving up 13 ER and 17 hits over 16 innings pitched to go along with 8 walks. Colorado is one of the more patient hitting teams in the league ranked in the top 5 in walks so it's no wonder Kershaw has had issues. Also Kershaw can't possibly keep up what he's done over his last 3 starts with a 0.00 ERA. Rockies are the #8 team in OPS vs. LHP .734 and are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. LHP. In the last 10 games the Rockies are scoring 5.40 runs per 9 vs. LHP while Dodgers are at just 2.98 vs. RHP. In general Dodgers are 24th in OPS vs. RHP this year with a .672 OPS. I give the edge to the Rockies in this one.

Angels -123 (4* MLB POD) Got to love the Angels here as Haren is in a bounce back start and the Indians are struggling with the bats a bit here. IN his last 3 starts he has a 1.58 ERA and 0.83 WHIP vs. the Indians. I also like the Angels bullpen advantage i the last 10 games La has a 2.56 ERA out of the bullpen while the Indians have a 5.48. Carmona looked good in his return, but now goes up against an Angels team that's playing well and are 17-5 in their last 22 as a favorite. Carmona is 6-18 in his last 24 vs. the Al West and has a 6.00 ERA in July starts over the last few years compared to Haren's 2.74 ERA in July starts.

Jays +150 (4.5* MLB POD) Love the Jays in this spot they are the #1 OPS team vs. LHP this year with .818 and they are scoring 6.28 runs per 9 over their last 10 games so their offense has been clicking while Texas has been super hot they have scored 5.44 over last 10 and they also face a starter in Villanueva who they have never seen before and that's the main reason I like the Jays chances even more. Toronto has the better bullpen 3.78 on the road compared to the Rangers 5.00 at home. Also Harrison who has been just great of late has faced an average LHP OPS of 21 out of 30 meaning he's been facing the teams who struggle to hit lefties during his hot streak. Actually the two mids Baltimore ranked 10th had 11 hits off him and the Astrost 14th had 5 ER off him. Toronto has killed him in the past he's got two starts with a 15.42 ERA 3.14 WHIP. Jays are 18-8 in their last 26 road games as a dog to +150 and are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. the Rangers on the road. Also noting Harrison is bound to have a rough start he's got 6 straight starts now with 100+ pitches and I think it catches up to him as he faces his first top 10 offense vs. LHP today since Detroit knocked him out early of a start.

Reds -125 (3.5* MLB Early Bird) I like the Reds chances here today as the Braves bullpen that has dominated the league has been a little shaky with a 5.52 bullpen in their last 10 games. Reds at home hit righties .255 4.92 runs per 9 and have a 2.79 ERA as they face righty Derek Lowe. Cinci have a .750 OPS vs. LOWE OVER 141 AB and he makes a day start against the #2 day offense as the Reds have a .788 ops and score 5.05 runs per game durin gday games. On the other hand the Braves are at 4.06 runs per day game and .650 ops. Bailey faces the Braves and he's got a 2.39 ERA at home and I like the fact that the hot Braves haven't faced him before so I expect them to cool off big time here today as the Reds bounce back from last night.

Braves -109 (3.5* play) Hard not to back Jurrjens here he had his worst start of the year last game and I think he bounces back vs. the Reds who he shut down 8 IP 1 ER earlier this year. Arroyo on the other hand has been awful he's 3-7 with a 5.35 ERA at home 7.15 ERA at night and in his last 5 vs. the Braves he's got a 8.25 ERA with a 1.92 WHIP. Atlanta has 163 at bats with a .362 avg and 1.092 ops vs. Arroyo and are ranked higher in terms of OPS 12TH, VS. RH pitching than the Reds 18th. Braves are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. RH starter and are scoring 5.5 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. RHP.

Red Sox -140 (3*play) King Felix is on the mound, but I'm confident in the progress Lackey has shown.He's got a 1.63 ERA in his last 3 starts vs. the Mariners with the Sox and the hitters in today's line up have had some success vs. Felix who has not been the same pitcher as he was a year ago.

Cardinals -131 (4.5* MLB POD) We head with the Cards for our POD backing Carpenter once again. Carp has a 1.66 ERA since June 23 and has been dominant in his starts vs. the Pirates going 11-2 in 16 starts with a 2.09 ERA. Cards are 14-2 vs. Pirates in his 16 career starts. Carp struggled early on the road but has been dominant over his last 2 starts going 17 IP giving up 2 total earned runs. Pit is 24th in the league in OPS vs. RHP with a .670 OPS. So while they are playing well it's not their offense and they'll need their offense to come up big here and I don't htink they will as they struggle at home to score runs vs. RHP. Maholm goes for St. Louis and that's good news for Pujols and the Cardinals who beat up on another lefty yesterday. I always like playing a team that hits lefties well and are facing lefties on back to back. Cards are 7th in the league with a .743 OPS vs. LHP and Pujols is an incredible 19-33 vs. Maholm. Theriot also has success and Holliday adds 2HR. Cards are scoring over 5 runs per game on the road this year and are hot vs. LHP in their last 10 with a .289 average and 6.10 runs per 9. Also worth noting is that Carpenter comes in with 5 days rest and is 39-15 when on 5 days rest while Maholm and the Pirates are 7-22 when he's an under dog

Brewers +102 (4.5* MLB POD) Love tonight's match up partially because the Brewers have the advantage in all aspects of this game and are an under dog and that just doesn't happen very often. They have the better offense, pitching and bullpen here and I'll tell you why. Zach Greinke has been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball and if you look at his core stats he's only leaving 49% of base runners on base on the road this year. That's just amazing his .344 BABIP is just unlucky especially since he is K'n 12 batters per 9 which is better than Ian Kennedy and he's only walking 2 per 9 also better than Kennedy. Kennedy always seems to struggle in July in 8 career starts in July he's got an ERA nearing 6 and that includes his 5.79 through his first 3 this month. I expect that to continue tonight against the Brewers who are hitting well and a have a righty heavy line up. Kennedy as a righty untraditionally struggles more with righties over his career than lefties and Mil has 32 AB .281 average and .878 OPS. Brewers also have the better bullpen as the Dbacks bullpen ERA at home is nearing 5.00.

Jays -168 (3.5* mlb early bird special) Mariners are awful in day games last int he league 2.75 runs per game and a .572 OPS also last. They go up against a lefty which has not suited them well they are hitting .210 with 1.43 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 games. Blue Jays 7.26 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Romero is better durding day starts in his career 12-6 3.28 ERA from 2008 to 2010. He's got a 2.98 ERA at home with success against the M's.

Marlins -140 (5.5* MLB POD)
Well the Marlins are coming off a loss as they were shut out last night and I think it's the perfect time to strike on a hot team as they are 9-2 in their last 11. Mainly I love the pitching match up in this one and the Padres have not been a good team this year despite the success of their starter on Wednesday Aaron Harrang, but I think things are going to start to go sour for him. For one thing his ERA 3.81 on the road is a run higher than his home ERA and July believe it or not is his worst month over the last three years. He was 0-5 from 2008-2010 with a 6.69 ERA during the month of July. He also has struggled big time vs. the Marlins who have a combined .368 average and a 1.108 OPS led by Hanley Ramirez who is 9-23 with 4 HR off him. Hanley has been playing well of late too as he's 9-21 with a HR over his last 7 days and has a .400 average for the month of July. The Marlins overall have beaten up on Harrang at home scoring 17 runs in 18 IP while collecting 35 base runners. That's an ERA of nearly 9 and a WHIP nearly at 2. Harrang has been on fire of late with 7 ER over his last 7 starts and he's just not this good we expect that hot streak is way over due to blow up in his face and there is no better time than vs. the Marlins who he has struggled against in the month of July and on the road. Lastly we must talk Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has a 3.13 ERA at home 3.23 ERA at night this year very solid. His best month during 2008-2010 is his best month he's 9-4 with a 3.38 ERA during that period. He's red hot right now as he has a 1.04 WHIP and 0.78 ERA over his last 3 starts over 23 IP. Padres over their last 10 games are hitting .127 before last night's win vs. RHP scoring just 1.73 runs per 9 while the Marlins were hitting .290 with 6.79 runs per 9 vs. RHP. One thing that would worry me is Padres bullpen advantage however the Marlins have a 2.78 bullpen ERA at home while the Padres are over 3 on the road so another advantage for the Marlins. Umpire Carlson is behind the plate and the home team is 36-15 in his last 51 Wednesday's behind home plate.

Red Sox -112 (4* MLB EB Special)
Well it's hard not to back the Sox here the way they have been playing and even better they come off a loss which we like even more. This team is 22-8 during day games. They have the best OPS the best runs per game vs. day games by a wide margin. They are scoring over 6.5 runs during their day games while the Orioles are more than 2 less than that. Boston also a better day ERA than the Orioles who have an ERA over 4 and are just 14-14 during those day games. Andrew Millers ERA is close to 8 after his last start over his last 3 starts combined, but it's not close to how well he's pitched with an ERA of 3.57 through his first 4 starts. I look for him to go back to that as the Red Sox are 39-15 in their last 54 meetings with the Orioles.

Rangers -130 (3* play) This is pretty much the division race at a glance right here between the Angels and Rangers and tonight we have both teams coming into this series red hot. However, I like the bats of Texas and the pitching match up goes in their favor tonight in my opinion. Chatwood has a 4.80 ERA and 1-4 record during night starts while Ogando has an 8-1 and a 2.67 ERA at night. Ogando also 3.51 ERA in road starts while Chatwood has a 3.84 at home. Chatwood's xFIP is 4.82 much worse than his actual ERA of 3.62 that suggests he's going to continue to decline. I don't see how it hasn't happened quicker as he' only managing 4.71 K/9 while walking 4.71/9 FOR A 1:1 RATIO of K's to walks. While Ogando is 6.71 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9. Feel much better going with the Rangers. Also the Angels have struggled at home vs. RHP .236 average on the season 3.36 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home. Rangers also in their last 10 6.06 runs per 9 while the Angels are sitting at 3.98.

Jays -118 (4.5* MLB POD) We'll continue to fade the Mariners vs. LHP. They are approaching embarassment now with a .602 OPS vs. LHP. Brett Cecil had success in his start over them last year and collectively they have a .552 OPS vs. Cecil. Cecil has looked good in his last few starts and I like his stuff in a game vs. the Mariners who are just 13-38 in their last 51 vs. LH starter, 17-45 in their last 62 as a dog and 10-27 in their last 37 meetings in Toronto. Not only are they last in OPS in the league vs. lefties but they are hitting .195 with just 0.98 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games combined while the Blue Jays are hitting .310 with 7.11 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Pineda has been great all year but it looks like he's starting to approach the unknown zone where he's not used to pitching this many innings. We have already seen it with a 6.23 ERA in his last 3 starts. He will make his first start on turf tonight where the Jays are 22-7 in their last 29 following off days.

Twins -105 (4* MLB POD) Twins lost game #1 earlier and it's not often a team can come back and lose game #2 especially a hot team like the Twins who are 17-6 in their last 23 home home games and are 21-8 in their last 29 vs. the Indians. Especially when they have dominated Fausto Carmona 2-8 in his last 10 starts vs. the Twins posting a 7.41 ERA and 1.68 WHIP during that period. Carmona is fresh hasn't pitched since 7/2 which I believe will make him a little rusty here tonight. He also hates pitching at night this year and away 6.14 and 5.87 ERAs. July has also not been his favorite month he has a 6.00 ERA over 2008-2010. Twins last 10 games they have hit righties .336 with 6.35 runs per 9. While the Indians face a lefty in Scott Diamond who has not been that great in AAA, but none of the Indians hitters have seen him and they are playing their second game of the day. This team got off to a hot start vs. lefties and was in the top 5 in OPS, but since have gone ice cold now ranked 24th wiht a .688. IN their last 10 games they are hitting .242 with 2.64 runs per 9 vs. LHP. I think Diamond will give the Twins what they need to get by and even up the series. Offense is down this year and we have seen it time and time again where a pitcher who is pretty unknown making his MLB debut and throws a gem.