[b]INDIANS -112 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Indians have dominated this in state rivalry at home winning 10 of 11.  They have the disadvantage in the starting pitchers today, but I'm looking past that as Johny Cueto has had an easy time going up against National League offenses and the Indians have every other advantage.

The Indians are 3rd in OPS vs. RHP while the Reds are 26th.  The Indians bullpen is also nearly 1.5 run better in ERA for home/away splits as well has 1.5 runs per 9 in offense better.  Josh Tomlin is coming into this game on extra rest and has done well as a home favorite 19-9 over his last 28 and I think he pitches well tonight not having to face some of the Reds sluggers who are still on the DL. It's a nice break for him being able to face a NL offense at the bottom of the league in production.

Nationals -137 4* MLB POD
Kevin Gausman has to worry about hitting tonight which is not typical for him and it's the reason I always like to fade the AL team visiting the NL team.  It will be just enough to give the Nationals a significant edge when you consider they are pretty even in offense and have a big advantage on the mound.  Tanner Roark is not a household name, but he has a 1.94 ERA at home and that can't be ignored.  You would think the odds would be a bit higher, but Gausman has an ERA of 2.86 ERA on the road but a 1.50 WHIP shows that luck may have played a factor.  Washington owns bullpen advantage on the season as well and their offense is a bit hotter as the Orioles are in a bit of a slump batting .192 with just 2.75 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. RHP.  Washington is 37-14 in their last 51 home games as a favorite -110 to -150 in interleague play!

Pirates -122 4* MLB POD

Astros +100 4* MLB pod

[b]CUBS -110 4.5*mlbpod  [/b]
We have an even pitching match up here with a pair of lefties and the Cubs actually have been scoring more runs on the season vs. LHP than the Rockies if you can believe that.  The Rockies are 3rd in OPS while the Cubs are 5th, but factor in Coors Field and I think the Cubs are the better offensive team especially since the Rockies are without Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and  Michael Cuddyer.  Travis Wood has been very good at home with an ERA in the 3's and Brett Anderson who has pitched well is still unproven and injury prone.  Anderson has not faced a team in the top 10 vs. LHP until tonight and he comes into this start off back to back starts of 100+ pitches.  I don't see him going deep into this game and the Cubbies have the bullpen advantage here.  Rockies are 16-35 on the road while the Cubs are nearly .500 at home I'll take them as small favorites here in a heartbeat.

[b]Padres -113 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Padres at home are always intriguing because they are in every game and I think this is good value with Tyson Ross on the mound who the Cardinals have never faced.  It's also not like the Cardinals have been scoring a ton of runs of late or vs. RHP on the road, just 3.31 on the road vs. RHP.  San Diego is not a great offensive time either, but they have a clear cut advantage on the mound especially out of the pen where they have a 2.26 ERA at home and 2.62 on the year both considerably better than the Cardinals.

Tyson Ross has a 1.89 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP at home this year and Lance Lynn who has a 3.53 ERA seems to be more lucky posting a 1.39 WHIP.  The Padres were swept on the road over the weekend and should be motivated to come back home tonight to win as they are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.

White Sox -178 4* MLB POD
I'll go with the Sox as they have a major advantage on the mound tonight with their ace going facing the Royals who can't hit LHP and are 26th in OPS vs. LHP on the year.  Chris Sale has a 2.69 ERA over the last 3 years vs. the Royals as a starter, but a 1.08 ERA this year.  He's on extra rest which he posts a 1.88 ERA this season.  He's actually on 11 days rest which looking back at his career he has 4 starts on irregular rest of 10+ days and he posted a 1.29 ERA in those starts.  The Royals are scoring < 3 runs per game over their last 10 vs. LHP.

The White Sox can't hit LHP either but today they face a RHP in Jeremy Guthrie.  White Sox rank 11th and while Guthrie has good numbers vs. the White Sox this is a different offensive line up than years past.  Guthrie also has a 5.08 ERA on extra rest this season and a 5.28 ERA during the month of July over the last 3 years.  I'll roll the dice and pay a premium for what I feel has a 90% chance of winning.

Astros +114 4*MLB POD
The Astros are really flying under the radar vs. LHP as they rank 4th in OPS and they have also hit John Danks hard in his career 7.71 ERA in 3 career starts.  Danks also has struggled during day starts with an ERA over 4 and the Astros are 8th in DAY OPS compared to the Sox who are 19th.  I think the Astros can avoid the sweep with who they send to the mound in Jared Cosart who was pitching consistently well before the All Star break up until his last 2 starts where he got a blister, but I think the long break will have allowed him to fully heal and he should throw a quality start today while I think the Astros bats will wake up a bit on Sunday.  The Sox are also just 3-7 in their last 10 game 3's in a series!

[b]Astros -105 4* MLB POD[/b]
I'll go with the Astros here to rebound from the loss last night as the White Sox are 15-36 in their last 51 Saturday games and they will have the significantly better pitcher on the mound.  Dallas Keuchel has been very consistent this year, but he did struggle over his last 4 starts going into the All Star break.. I think now he is well rested (9 days rest) and is ready for another sharp run of quality pitching.  We are getting value here because he struggled over his last 4 but a closer look and we see all 4 opponents in the top 10 in OPS vs. LHP.  In fact 11 of his 17 starts have been against top 15 OPS opponents and the other 6 he has 1.71 ERA which I bring up because the Chicago White Sox are 27th in OPS vs. LHP.  I expect Keuchel to bounce back from his recent run of poor starts when he faces the White Sox who are hitting .232 and scoring 1.23 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP.

For the White Sox they throw their most inconsistent starter out there in Hector Noesi who has struggled with control and has given up 12 hits in 33 AB to the Astros roster.  He posts a 5.15 ERA at home with a 1.56 WHIP.  The Astros can hit a bit and really don't hit RHP well, but the pitching match up is too significant to ignore.  Noesi has not pitched well on extra rest either 22 ER in 6 starts over 35.2 IP for a 5.55 ERA.

Tampa Rays -123 4* MLB POD

Athletics +102 4* MLB POD
I can not pas sup on the A's as under dogs right now as they are simply the best team in baseball and you will always find value on them.  I give a slight edge in the pitching match up to the Mariners, but it won't help the way they have been hitting.  Other than Robinson Cano everyone has been struggling with only 8 runs total in their last 6 games combined.  We were lucky enough to sneak a victory last night 3-2 with King Felix on the mound, but I don't think that will continue here tonight.  Jesse Chavez is 7-3 in his last 10 road starts and he's been pretty consistent all year long and has solid raw stats and he'll face 8 left handed batters, but his pitches have performed well and he's actually holding left handed batters to better numbers - .233 average and a .640 OPS on the season with no reason to believe that won't continue.

Iwakuma has been a very consistent starter in the majors, but he struggles on 4 days rest and I see it happening here tonight.  His last 6 starts on 4 days rest has produced a 4.86 ERA with 4 0f the 6 starts allowing 4 or more ER which will be plenty in this match up.  Oakland is 11-4 in their last 15 following a loss and are scoring 5.30 runs per 9 vs. RHP following a loss.  I look for them to regroup with Cespedis back in the line up who is 8-18 with 3 HR vs. Iwakuma.

[b]Mariners -123 4* MLB POD[/b]
This play has everything to do with King Felix Hernandez as he matches up with the best team in the league.  Felix is as well rested as he's ever been going into the All Star break.  This is his third start in a row on 5 days rest which you don't see much from him, but his results on 5 days rest are absolutely great posting a 1.67 ERA this year in 6 starts with a 54:9 K to BB ratio in 43 IP with a 0.61 WHIP.  Last year it was more of the same while he posted a 2.35 ERA on 5 days rest.  I expect him to pitch well again tonight he has held this Oakland line up to a .570 OPS over 313 AB and they are struggling over their last 10 vs. RHP .234 3.59 runs per 9 which is much lower than their season average.

Although Seattle's offense has been in a slump themselves I think it will help with Jeff Samardija on the mound who is pitching well, but has not pitched up to those numbers on the road and yet he comes off the high of pitching in his first game as an Oakland A at home now he hits the road on 4 days rest. I just think he might have pitched too hard in his last start and is due for a let down here against the Mariners who actually have the better bullpen to take the ball from Felix as they are posting a 2.39 ERA on the season and a 1.22 over their last 10.   Felix has a 2.64 ERA vs. Oakland who is 22-10 in his 32 starts against them.

[b]Royals +104 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Rays are hot right now but so are the Royals and I think this is a complete mismatch.  The Royals hit RHP better, their bullpen is better and their starting pitcher is better.  Yordana Ventura carries a 2.32 ERA on the road and a 2.89 ERA at  night compared with Alex Cobb's 4.37 at home and 6.40 ERA at night.  Not to mention Cobb has not had success against the Royals.

Ventura is known for his speed leading the majors in average velocity on his fast ball.  The Rays have faced 7 pitchers this season who have averaged over 93mph on their fastball and those starters have posted a 2.03 ERA averaging nearly 7 innings pitched.  Ventura's 3 pitches are fastball, curve and changeup.  The Rays are ranked 14th 24th and 27th and I expect Ventura to continue his success on the road here tonight.

[b]Braves -145 4.5*MLB  POD[/b]
I like the Braves, and the value is right. When you look at the odds and the match up you see that the Braves have not hit any better vs. RHP than the Mets have overall or on the home/away splits and the bullpens are pretty comparable about the same "statistically."  So you could argue that the Mets are the value here, but the Mets really are not a good team and are 28-62 in their last 90 games at home as an under dog.  I can't seem them winning again tonight after their walk off last night which they felt the need to celebrate.  I get the season is a grind and you need to celebrate those things, but that's the mentality of this Mets team and it's a huge issue why they have been struggling to win games in their own ball park since Citi Field arrived.

Next the starting match ups is a complete mismatch.  Yes Julio Teheran has a 3.45 ERA on the road compared with Jacob Degrom's ERA in the 2's at home, but these stats are misleading.  Teheran had 1 bad start all year and it came on 4 days rest in Colorado who is also #1 in OPS vs. RHP (Mets are 25th).  Take that start out and Teheran has a 2.68 ERA on the road and he's also got a 1.56 ERA on 5 days rest which he has here.  Teheran also has a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts vs. the Mets and is walking 2 batters less per 9 innings than Degrom.  The Braves offense and bullpen are a bit hotter over their last 5 games which I also like to look at considering baseball players are streaky.

Indians -113 4* MLB POD
Jeremy Guthrie is one of those pitchers that always pitches on the edge he's always due for a poor start considering he does not always have elite control and he doesn't have a strike out pitch.  Facing the Indians is a major issue in 232 AB the Indians have a .302 average and a  .863 OPS.  The middle of the line up have the following stat lines - 1.132 OPS, 1.634, 1.231, 1.161 and they are all likely in the lineup tonight.  The Indians are 7th in OPS vs. RHP and are 23-18 at home, 37-18 in their last 55 home games as a favorite.  I think they bounce back because they'll have the young TJ House on the mound who has pitched much better than his numbers reflect.

First of all for House he has struggled vs. the two top 5 offenses he faced giving up 10 ER in 9.1 IP.  He's only had 1 home start out of his 6 as well, but against 4 other opponents he carries a 2.31 ERA.  The Royals offense is not elite by any means vs. LHP ranked 24th in OPS and is scoring only 2.95 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games.  The fast ball is a young pitcher's best friend and House can throw it often as the Royals are ranked 28th vs. FB in value.  Overall Cleveland's bullpen is a bit better and has been performing well posting a 2.63 ERA over their last 10.  This is great value for a home team.
    

Giants -117 5* MLB POD
I really like this match up and it really comes down to the Giants having one disadvantage and that's out of their bullpen, but they do carry a 2.74 ERA on the road on the year so they are not at that big of a disadvantage.  Matt Cain takes the mound and I think we are getting great value here based on his earlier performance vs. the Padres at home 7.1 innings, 6 ER.  Not of quality, but Cain has not pitched great against the Padres at home, but in San Diego things are much different.  Since 2011 he carries a 1.03 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP vs. the Padres over 5 starts.  I think he's been wildly inconsistent this year and it would be very fitting for him to seek a little revenge on the Padres who roughed him up the last time.  Overall he has dominated these hitters in 226 total AB holding them to a .204 average and a .578 OPS.

On the other hand Eric Stults has been worse on the year carrying a 5.27 ERA at home and he really has not seen the benefits of pitching on 5 days rest like your typical pitcher would.  In his last 10 starts vs. the Giants which only goes back to 2012 he carries a 5.50 ERA and the Giants collectively have 195 AB and a .318 average, .893 OPS.  I love my chances backing Cain based on those numbers with the odds we are getting.  Not to mention the Giants are a top 10 team in OPS vs. LHP this year and over their last 10 they have great advantages batting .311 and scoring 5.73 runs per 9 vs. LHP compared to the Padres .207, 3.38 vs. RHP.  Home away splits are much of the same with the Giants at a +1.48 runs per 9 advantage in this situation.  When you combine the fact that Stults has not looked very good, the Giants success against him and LHP along with Cain's domination in San Diego the result is for a very good chance at a win. 

[b]Angels -140 4.5* MLB POD [/b]
I'm taking the Angels in this spot they are a far superior hitting team especially vs. left handed pitching which both teams will face tonight.  The Angels are ranked 2nd in OPS vs. LHP and the White Sox are ranked 23rd, but those stats really don't do their justice.  The Angels are also a hot hitting team right now 15 runs in the first two games of the series and scoring over 6 runs per 9 over their last 10 games while the White Sox are at less than 2.  The Angels who don't have the better bullpen do over the last 10 days by a 2.48 to 4.45 margin.

I took a look at both pitchers numbers and on the surface both are the same the two biggest differences are freshness and experience.  Right now Tyler Skaggs has not pitched in nearly a month and he'll be fresher where as John Danks is pitching in his 3rd start in a row on 4 days rest.  HE may have a 2.77 ERA at home this year, but when he's on 4 days rest at home he carries a 5.09 ERA which is nothing new for Danks (4.18 in 2013).  I also like the fact that Danks ERA is lower than what it should be his xFIP is 4.91 while Skaggs ERA is higher than his xFIP of 3.71.  Meaning we have the better starting pitcher in the match up and I think the value is correct.  The Angels are 37-14 in their last 51 games vs. a losing team and the White Sox are 22-45 in their last 67 vsa.  winning team combining for a 92-36 angle for the Angels.

[b]Mariners -128 4* MLB POD[/b]
I really like Hiroshi Iwakuma coming off two straight poor starts + well rested with 5+ days of rest.  He's pitched to a 2.51 ERA over 25 career games on 5 or more career starts on 5 days rest.  Jared Cosart on the other hand will go up against one of the hotter line ups in the league as the Mariners are ranked 3rd in OPS over the last 7 days.  They are scoring 6.05 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. RHP compared with 2.38 by the Astros.  The bullpen is also really the difference here as the Houston bullpen is just not very good ranked last in the league compared to Seattle who is ranked 3rd.   Cosart is only making his 3rd home start on short rest and I think he's do to struggle here.

[b]Angels -118 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Angels have the better starter on the mound today and the better offense.  Their offense over the last 10 games, home/away splits and overall are significantly better in this situation and I'll back C.J Wilson who is 6-0 vs. the Royals lifetime with a 2.59 ERA.  The Royals have struggled to hit lefties all year less than 2.70 runs per 9 at home and less than 1 r/9 over their last 10 games overall.  Wilson also has been dynamite during day games sporting a 1.91 ERA which I think makes up for the fact that he's on the road and on short rest.  Jeremy Guthrie has not pitched any better on longer rest and he's given up 4 or more ER in 5 of 10 starts against the Angels who have 10 HR against him in just 154 AB.  The Angels are 38-16 in their last 54 games in Kansas City and I think they will be leaving Sunday with another win for the impressive trend.

[b]Orioles -137 5.5* MAX MLB POD[/b]
I really like the match up here as the Rays are 2-8 in their last 10 meetings with the Orioles and 17-36 in their last 53 overall on the road as an under dog.  Two lefties go at it today with Erik Bedard taking on Wei-Yen Chen.  I believe Chen is the better pitcher and that Baltimore has the greater odds of scoring runs against a lefty when you factor in the fact that they are 8th in OPS vs. LHP compared with Tampa who is 22nd and scoring less than 3 runs overall on the road vs. LHP and overall.  Baltimore is 7th in OPS over the last 7 days due to the fact that Nelson Cruz has heated up Cruz among Chris Davis and Adam Jones are 17-46 against Bedard as Bedard has not had success against the Orioles at all.  Orioles are also hitting .292 with 5.28 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. LHP.

Chen has been solid pitcher 3.31 ERA at home 2.79 over his last 3 starts and he's only given up more than 3 ER vs. the Rays 1 time over his last 10 starts as he's held them to a .236 average and a .680 OPS over 140 AB compared with Bedard who in 121 AB has allowed an .869 OPS vs. the Orioles.  Orioles also have the advantage in the bullpen right now and have sported a 1.59 ERA over their last 10 overall.  Chen has been even better at home posting a 2.63 ERA in his last 4 home starts dating back to 2012 against the Rays.  I expect the Rays to struggle again here tonight to score runs which has been the theme for them all year long on the road.

Oakland As -161 4.5* MLB POD
The A's have been on a role and have the best road record of any team in the league.  Jesse Chavez has been doing a fantastic job and carries a 2.98 ERA on the road into this match up with a 2.71 overall. Chavez is well rested for 5 days and Oakland had yesterday off so the travel time and idle time really is a wash from a fatigue perspective.  Miami on other hand has issues in their bullpen after a 14 inning game last night that should play a factor here tonight.  Anthony DeSclafani is not ready for the majors and the Marlins really have not been the same team since they lose Jose Fernandez. Over their last 10 they are scoring just 2.81 runs per 9 overall compared with 5.94 from the A's.  Considering the Marlins had to use 5 guys out of their bullpen and the fact that  DeSclafani is not the pitcher to go deep in a game at this point in his career gives me a lot of confidence.  Oakland is also 37-14 in their last 51 as a favorite 151-200.

Indians -121 4.5* MLB POD
Opposite play of the day tonight as I'm just not impressed with the Diamondbacks at all.  Arizona is 15-29 at home this year and 5-15 in their last 20 as an under dog.  Cleveland is very impressive as a road favorite 37-15 in their last 52.  Corey Kluber is clearly an under rated starter with a 2.90 xFIP he's one of the better pitchers around, but never seems to get credit.  I think he'll be able to put together another quality start and the Indians offense and bullpen is much better than Arizona. Arizona starts Chase Anderson who has not been nearly as impressive as Kluber.

Dbacks -123 4.5* MLB POD
Justin Masterson has an ERA over 6 on the road and is struggling with his control while Wade Miley has not pitched well is showing signs with his 3.66 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Tonight he gets an easier than usual match up against the Cleveland Indians who are ranked 28th vs. LHP and are 2-12 in their last 14 road games vs. LHP.  I expect Cleveland to struggle as they are 16-43 in their last 59 inter league road games while the Dbacks are 21-9 in their last 30 as an inter league favorite.  Miley who has an ERA of 4.62 actually has pitched better than that with a 3.46 xFIP.  His ERA has suffered undoubtedly because of the long ball 1.5 HR/9 won't help your stat line, but facing the Indians who only have 13 HR vs. LHP on the year should help.

A's -140 5* MLB POD
A day off allowed me to come back with a fresh perspective on the league and where we are with our handicapping.  Today is not about value it's about who I think has the best shot to win and make us money.  Today it's the Oakland Athletics despite the Red Sox throwing out their hard throwing RHP Ruby De La Rosa who is averaging 94.4 mph.  The Athletics can handle their bats vs. RHP as they rank among the  leaders in the league and they faced Garrett Richards 3x this season who ranks 2nd in average fast ball velocity at 95.9mph.  They roughed him up in 2 of his 3 starts and Richards is more polished than De La Rosa is at this point in their careers.  Richards allowed 11 ER in 14.2 IP in those two starts and did not get through 1 inning in his only start in Oakland.  Ruby De La Rosa comes into this game in an even more difficult situation because it's his first day start and he's facing the Athletics on the road where he has 2 terrible starts against two other top 10 offenses.  De La Rosa has not proven that he can pitch on the road or pitch against quality offenses which Oakland absolutely is.  Oakland is ranked top 10 in day OPS, overall OPS, vs. RHP OPS, L7 days OPS.  De La Rosa is on 4 days, on the west coast and pitching during the day which is more like 3.5 days rest.  Worse part about it is that his opponent Jesse Chavez is on 5 days rest.

Chavez has been great and his numbers show that he's not been lucky with a 8.16 K/9 and 2.20 BB/9.  He faces the Red Sox who are 26th in OPS on the road, 22nd vs. RHP, 26th in day OPS and  27th over their L7 days.  Chavez has a 3.07 ERA on 5 days rest, 2.87 ERA at home, and a 2.55 ERA during 6 day starts this year.  What I like most is that Chavez is coming into this start on 5 days rest for the second time while De La Rosa is on his 3rd start on 4 days rest after back to back 100+ pitch efforts and he's a guy trying to prove his worth so I expect him to over pitch a bit here and get hit hard.

[b]Nationals -140 3* MLB POD[/b]
I'll take a look at the Nationals here and I'm dialing down my confidence rankings, because I always typically struggle at this point of the year.. Both teams struggle to hit right handed pitching and both will face pitchers enjoying great seasons.  However, Gavin Floyd is due to start showing his inconsisntencies here soon and the Nationals would be a good match up for that to happen in when they have 91 AB and a .341 average .915 OPS against him.  I love the fact that their table setter Denard Span is 17-38 with a .447 average.  Floyd showed some signs of coming back down to earth in his last start allowing 4 ER.

For Jordan Zimmermann he's on fire after throwing just 76 pitches in his last start over 8 innings he's given up just 1 ER in his last 3 starts covering 25 innings including a complete game.  He comes into this game being on 5 days of rest where he is 13-2 over the last 2 years.  He's also held the Braves to a .621 ops.  The Braves also don't hold their typical advantage out of the bullpen as the Nationals are nearly under 2 at home compared with the Braves who have a bullpen ERA well over 4 on the road.  I wish we grabbed this line earlier in the day, but still feel confident.

[b]Rangers -114 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
This is really my favorite line of the day because it seems like we have every advantage working for us.  Yu Darvish is a better pitcher than Tommy Milone and the Rangers are hitting lefties better than Oakland is hitting righties.  Raw stats show Darvish with what I like to call their real ERA at 3.15 and 2.96 for xFIP and sIERA.  While Milone has been far more lucky with a 4.57 and 4.53.  His real ERA is under 3.5 yet the numbers are telling me he should be over 4 based on his stuff.  Well the Rangers are hitting better on the road vs. LHP and they nearly double their output overall vs. LHP compared with RHP.  Over 6 runs per 9 on the road and over 11 over their last 10 games overall for some impressive numbers.

Both pitchers are similar in the fact that they are fly ball pitchers who will benefit from Oakland's stadium layout.  Both pitchers are on 5 days rest which is usually a positive, but these pitchers actually pitch worse on extra rest.  Overall I think the line should be more around 1.3 - 1.4 given how much Darvish is better than Milone and how well the Rangers hit lefties giving us value on our dollar.

[b]Astros +148 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Astros get some pretty decent value on Sunday at home as they face off against the Rays who are 1-11 in their last 12 road games but they will throw out David Price who has pitched well this season, but has been a bit unlucky.  I think Price is put in tough spot pitching during the day where he carries a 5.25 ERA against the Astros who are ranked 2nd in OPS during day games this year.  Price is on extra rest but the Rays are 2-9 in his last 11 starts on 5 days rest and he carries a 4.59 ERA during 5 starts on 5+ days rest this year.  The Astros are also ranked 9th in OPS vs. LHP compared to 18th for the Rays against RHP.  Astros are hitting right now .293 with 5.24 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home and .289 / 8.50 in their last 10!

Brad Peacock is the weak link to this match up, but when you look at his match ups this season he has had to face 6 of the 9 opponents all in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP.  Now he gets to face the Rays whoa re struggling ranking 18th, but 27th during day games.  I think Houston has the advantage in this one and they are big under dogs look for Houston who has won 15 of their last 21 games to take the series on Sunday!

Angels -105 4.5* MLB POD
The Angels lost last night 3-4 to the Braves and I think it's a good opportunity to bet them to bounce back.  They are afterall 43-20 in their last 63 inter league road games which is quite impressive.  It's not easy to win on the road when the rules change, but Garrett Richards and the Angels seem up to it on Saturday night.  Richards has two quality road starts in inter league play so batting 2-3 times has not thrown his game off a bit as he carries an ERA nearly under 2 on the road this year.  The Braves have never faced him and I think it's going to be particularly difficult when you consider they are 26th in OPS vs. RHP and scoring just 3.04 runs per 9 at home vs. RHP compared to over 6 vs. LHP.  Richards is also the type to give the Braves issues he can strike guys out and on the year he's only allowing 0.22 HR/9.  The Braves often have to rely on the long ball and their bullpen to win close games, but their bullpen has also been struggling.

Braves will send Gavin Floyd to the mound who is thriving in the National League, but his numbers are not as good as they are on paper.  He's been lucky to face the Rockies twice without 3 of their starters and the other 5 opponents all rank outside the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP.  The Angels are 8th and they have 115 AB against him with a .330 average and 1.0530 OPS.  I think the Angels are just playing better baseball as the Braves pitching is typically their advantage it is not right now as their bullpen has struggled posting a 5.67 ERA over their last 10 games.

[b]Giants -130 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Rockies are 27-57 in their last 84 road games and 16-36 in their last 52 in San Francisco.  This season is the same story as previous seasons.  They have injuries and their bullpen is bad ranked 27th in the league and carry a 7.76 ERA over their last 10 games.  They also don't have the match up on the mound as they have struggled to hit RHP and Tim Lincecum has been solid at home posting a 3.86 ERA.  His numbers are better than De La Rosa who 0-4 in his last 5 stars at AT&T Park with a 8.59 ERA.  Lincecum is backed by the #2 bullpen in the league and they post a 1.89 ERA so in a close game the Giants will hold a significant edge here.

Mariners -111 4* MLB POD
Roenis Elias had a gem at Yankee Stadium n early May and I think he'll repeat considering the Yankees are hitting .208 and scoring 2.20 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games.  Elias has been pretty solid at home and can actually go deep into a ball game plus the Yankees typically struggle vs. new pitchers they don't have a lot of experience with his raw stats indicate he's on the same level as Chas Whitley who comes in with a 2.42 ERA, but has gotten luck by strength of schedule.

Whitley has faced 5 opponents and their rankings vs. RHP in OPS are as follows - 29th, 27th, 20th, 25th, and 11th.  The 11th placed team is the Minnesota Twins who don't exactly scare you.  Seattle is not a big name out there either but over their last 10 games they are hitting .290 with 5.77 runs per 9.  The bigger difference in this game is the fact that Seattle has the better bullpen by a long way.  They have a 6 run advantage over their last 10 games in ERA out of the pen and on the season Seattle is ranked 5th while the Yankees are 24th.

Braves -130 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
I don't often like road favorites but this one makes a lot of sense to me.  Mike Minor is pitching on top of his game and is on an extra day of rest and has 4 of 5 quality starts vs. the Rockies.  Juan Nicasio has 3 of 5 5 disaster starts against the Braves and really has not pitched well at all.  His biggest issue is the home run ball 1.60 per 9 and the Braves thrive on home runs.  The bullpens are not contest the Braves have a better bullpen and the Rockies offense which is typically better has hist .246 with 2.81 runs per 9 over their last 10 games.  Cuddyer, Arenado, and Cargo all out of the line up and Justin Morneau is 3-32.  Colorado is 7-20 int heir last 27 games and this is another game I think they lose.

[b]Padres -120 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
This is really a tough spot for the Nationals after a long home stand they don't get any days off while the Padres come in fresh following a day off.  Now they have to fly all the way to San Diego to play a night game with their starting pitcher being on just 4 days rest while Tyson Ross is on 5 days rest.  I think we are getting value here considering Tanner Roak pitched a gem the last time out against the Padres 9 scoreless innings.  However, he's been another story on the road and during night starts posting 5.65 ERA and 4.72 ERA at night.  He's coming off 4 days rest and 100+ pitches.  The last time he threw 100 + pitches he followed up with his owrst outing of the year allowing 7 ER.  His raw stats are all indicating he's not as good as Tyson Ross who has an xFIP of 3.26 compared to Roak's 4.02.

Padres are at home and the Nationals are 17-39 in their last 56 as a dog 14-38 in their last 52 as a road dog.  Ross has a 1.54 ERA in 41 innings at home this year and on 5 days rest over 4 starts in 2014 carries a 1.71 ERA.  I'm expecting another 7+ innings of 1 ER or better ball while the bullpen continues to dominate.

Cardinals -113 4* MLB POD
Michael Wacha proved it in the post season and he's proving it again posting incredible numbers to start the year.  He's even doing it on the road with a 2.51 ERA.  Wacha threw 7 innings allowing 1 ER in a start last year against the Royals who are struggling big time to put anything together offensively scoring 4 runs or more in just 4 of their last 10 games and those games were against some suspect starters.  The Cardinals will build on their momentum that the offense gave them last night and get to Yordano VEntura who has been impressive, but suffered an elbow injury last time out.. I don't think he's quite 100% and I'll fade him here any way as he has gone 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA over his last 3 starts after a brilliant start to the season.

[b]White Sox +170 4* MLB POD[/b]
Dodgers are dead last in the league against LHP with a .631 OPS and the White Sox offense has been rejuvenated with the Cuban sensation Jose Abreu as they get set to take on Josh Becket.  First off John Danks is off back to back dominant starts where he has fixed his control issues where he has an 8:1 K to walk ratio.  He's struggled on the road but that has been against all top 20 offenses vs. LHP while the Dodgers are last as I mentioned before.  Despite his overall numbers Danks actually has quality starts in 7 of his 10 starts this year and he has a 2.08 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers and a 3.26 ERA in 23 career starts in interleague play.

The Dodgers are at a 1.63 runs per 9 disadvantage based on the pitchers and I think it's more when we take a look at Josh Beckett.  Beckett has over exceeded to start this year thus his value and the value when he pitches is on the opponent which I'll take in this spot.  Beckett threw a no hitter just 1 start ago and comes in on 4 days rest for the second game in a row following that taxing no hitter where he threw 128 pitches.  I took a look back at pitchers who threw a no hitter or perfect game over the last two seasons who had 2 or more starts after their gem and in each case they all struggled to go deep and pitch a quality start.  Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Homer Bailey and Felix Hernandez combined over 14 starts following their gem performance for a 4.97 ERA while averaging just 6 1/2 innings of work.  Tons of value on this play when you combine the fact that the Dodgers have struggled vs. LHP all year and both bullpens are middle of the road. 

[b]Padres -117 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Padres have pretty much owned the Pirates over the last few years going 35-14 in their last 53 overall meetings.  The Pirates main issue for tonight's game is that they have to play in a pitcher friendly park and they won't have the advantage in the bullpen that they normally do as the Padres are 2nd in the league with a 2.27 ERA out of their bullpen while they post an overall 2.62 ERA at home.  Tim Stauffer will make the start for the 3rd time this year.  He was in the bullpen earlier in the year and all of last year, but following his last start where he was shelled for 7 ER I think he bounces back here.  He only threw 37 pitches and comes into the year with a 3.43 xFIP and a 3.40 sERA which are both better than Charlie Morton who has a 4.24 xFIP.

The Pirates are also not hitting on the road .220 average vs. RHP and just 3.06 runs per 9.  The Pirates have scored 2 runs or fewer in 5 of their last 8 games while the Padres have scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 9.  I've never liked Charlie Morton on the road and I don't see how he would have the advantage here tonight as the Padres are +2.5 runs per 9 vs. RHP compared with the Pirates over their last 5 and +1.78 over their last 10.

4* MLB POD Dbacks -140

Mariners -120 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Play of the day here as most are going to be on Verlander as a dog which rarely happens, but he has not been himself with an ERA over 4 on the year and a 1.514 WHIP.  Over his last 10 starts vs. the Mariners he is just 3-7 posting a 4.67 over his last 5 at Safeco Field.  Iwakuma on the other hand has been on fire and is 26-12 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.077 WHIP over his three years as a starter and he's been flawless against the Tigers in his 2 career starts with 14 shutout innings.

Starting pitching is just a portion of the match up and the Mariners own the bullpen advantage with a 3.11 ERA compared with the Tigers 4.48 and over the last 10 games it's even more of an advantage 2.19 compared to 5.62. 

[b]Blue Jays -134 2.5* MLB PLAY[/b]
Yesterday we had the Jays as our POD and they cooled off a bit, but I expect them to bounce back as R.A. Dickey is a risky pitcher to back, because if he does not have it he implodes a bit.. He did not pitch his worst game, and the Jays still stayed hot with the bats, but lost in extras.  I fully expect the Royals to go back to struggling and the Jays to bounce back following a loss and stay hot with the bats.  I think 1 loss has definitely given us a bit of value here on Friday.

[b]Blue Jays -130 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
The Blue Jays are in a good spot here and although it seems like they don't have the pitching advantage I think they do.  R.A. Dickey has been lights out at home posting a 2.89 ERA and now he faces the Royals who are 25th in OPS vs. RHP on the year, Toronto is 2nd.  Toronto has a .882 OPS over the last 7 days while KC has been ice cold coming in at .571.  Over the last 10 days the Royals bullpen has struggled posting a 4.71 ERA which was a strength before is now a weakness while the Jays have a 3.08 ERA.  In 2 starts last year RA Dickey posted two quality starts once at home and another on the road with a 1.88 ERA.

Angels -156 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
We took the Angels in game 1 of this series and they rewarded us we take another look at them here in game 3 and I think we get some value even at this price.  Why?   Basically Garrett Richards who has pitched well all year has struggled at home he's got a great ERA on the road but an ERA over 5 at home while Jason Vargas has the same as he's posting an ERA under 2 in 4 road starts, but a closer look at Vargas and he's faced offensive challenged teams with OPS ranks of 23rd, 3rd, 29th, and 22nd.  The Angels are hitting the ball well right now and rank 5th vs. LHP.

The other reason I like the Angles here is that the Royals are 30th in pitch value offense vs. the fast ball.  Richards throws a smoker averaging 95 mph and he uses 72% of the time which is fine by me in this spot against the Royals who are struggling scoring just 3.39 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10.  The Angels bullpen had gotten off to a slow start as well but right now they are the main reason they have won 8 of 11 posting a 2.64 ERA.  I like the Angels and we will look to continue our streak in MLB.

Cardinals -112 4.5* MLB POD
Typically I would fade the Cardinals vs. a LHP but the reds are every bit bad vs. LHP as the Cardinals and right now they are even worse scoring just 2.95 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games overall playing 7 of those without Joey Votto.  They will have to face Jaime Garcia who is 9-2 in 13 career starts with a 2.95 ERA holding the Reds hitters to a .644 OPS over 172 ABs.  Garcia after 1 start looks solid as his velocity is up and his control was excellent with 0 BB's over 7 innings of work. 

Tony Cingrani is averaging nearly 5 BB's per 9 innings and has been a bit lucky with a 83% LOB percentage that I think will start to change. Bottom line I'm going to go with the better overall team in the Cardinals following a loss where they are 36-15 in their last 51 following a loss.  The Reds are also struggling to hit without Votto ranked 27th in the last 7 days in OPS compared with the Cardinals who are 6th.  Advantage to the Cardinals bullpen as well.  This is a short price for all of those advantages.

ANGELS -153 5* MLB POD

I rarely play games at this price, but I think the value is right with C.J. Wilson on extra rest going up agaisnt Duffy who has a 1.42 ERA which is bringing this line down a bit.  Duffy has faced two of the worst hitting teams vs. LHP and now he faces the Angels who are 8th in OPS and scoring more than a run and a half more runs per 9 innings than the Royals are vs. LHP.  Duffy may have the 0.83 WHIP and 1.42 ERA but he's walking nearly 4 guys per 9 and has had struggles throughout his career with his control.  His xFIP suggests his ERA should be in the mid 4's and I agree as I believe that his luck of .162 average with balls in play is bound to come back to the mean. 

CJ Wilson on the other hand has pitched great this year and posts a 3.22 xFIP and he gets to face the Royals who are ranked 25th in OPS vs. LHP.  He's held the royals to a .669 OPS in 98 AB! Wilson has an extra day of rest where he's been very good at home.  The entire Angels team had yesterday off and are 36-17 in their last 53 following an off day!

Pirates -109 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Pirates have been decent at home and have the better bullpen, but what I like the most in this spot is the advantage they have on the mound.  Chris Tillman has been a consistently good pitcher, but he comes off a complete game shutout which in which he threw a ton more pitches than he's used to.  That usually does not bode well for a starting pitcher in their next start.  Tillman has already struggled following a game where he threw 115+ pitches this year when he allowed 7 in his next outing.  The Orioles will face Wandy Rodriguez and are 25th in the league in OPS vs. LHP.

Mariners -108 4* MLBPOD [/b]
The Mariners have the better pitcher, the better bullpen  and the better offense.  Iwakuma has been dominant posting xFIP and TERA's under 3.  He does not give up home runs and he does not walk batters which are two things the Rangers rely on those ingredients to win games and I just don't see where they have a significant edge even at home because they are only scoring  3.5runs per 9 vs.RHP.  This is not the same team as last year and they deserve to be favorites here tonight.

[b]Indians -108 4* MLB POD[/b]
I like the Indians at home as I think Drew Smyly 2.70 ERA on the season is a bit misleading with his tERA at 4.27.  Corey Kluber comes in with a 3.38 ERA, but now he's favored, but I still think we get value here since his tERA is 2.64 and he also has a 2.68 xFIP which are more indicative of where his ERA should be.  Kluber has always been a strong pitcher at home and he had 3 quality starts against the Tigers last year at home and I see no reason why that should not happen again tonight.  Kluber will also be backed by a bullpen that's a tad bit better in ERA than the Tigers on the season so far.

Cleveland is also 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a LH starter, 43-20 in their last 63 as a home favorite and 17-8 in Klubers last 25 starts.  Don't underestimate the Tigers just not getting up for this game after sweeping Boston in Boston over the weekend.  It is a Monday game and I don't feel like they really fear the Indians, but the Indians really need a win here badly and I believe they will produce it.

Astros -111 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Astors are playing well right now and I like their match up against John Danks at home on Sunday.. The Astros have hit him well int he past and over their last 5 games they are hitting .395 vs. LHP and scoring 6.23 runs per 9 and their bullpen is pitching great with a 1.02 ERA.  For the White Sox they definitely hit RHP, but today I think they get a bad match up because Peacock's strength is striking out guys.  He's got 9.16K/9, so even if he has guys on base he can strand them against the White Sox who lead the league in strike outs.

Rockies -119 4* MLB POD

PADRES -111 4.5* MLB POD
I will go with the Padres in this spot.. First of all it's very hard to sweep a double header and the REds have already won game 1.  It's even more difficult when you don't have the bullpen depth that the opponent has as the Reds bullpen has posted some poor numbers this year 8.44 ERA over their last 5 games and a 4.47 overall at home while the Padres come in with a 2.14 ERA on the road.

Padres also hit lefties much better this year and are scoring over 3 more runs vs south paws on the road while the Reds have struggled at home vs. RHP.  Padres continue to swing the bats well vs. LHP scoring 7.71 R/9 over their last 10 combined while carrying a .320 average over that time period.  Tyson Ross > Jeff Francis who makes his first start this year.  Francis does not have good numbers against the Padres

Indians -101 4.5* MLB POD

There is tremendous value here on the Indians Wednesday night as they send Corey Kluber to the mound who has pitched better than his numbers.. Hidden beneath the surface of an ERA and W/L record are raw stats that are quite impressive including 9.93 K/9, and 2.09 BB/9 it means he has control over his pitches and can strike you out.  His xFIP and tERA also suggest that his ERA should be in the 3's.  He does go up against a tough line up, but I think he's backed by the better bullpen as well which posts a 3.04 ERA this year compared to the Blue Jays 4.86.

Dustin McGowan has had three rough starts at home and his raw stats do not say anything different with a 5.54 xFIP and a 5.66k/9 to 3.86 BB/9 ratio.  He's going up against an Indians team that is very hot right now hitting .312 vs. RHP over their last 5 games and they rank in the top 5 in OPS over the last 7 days and top 10 overall vs. RHP on the season. 

Reds -120 4* MLB POD
The Padres have start to hit, and that's why we see the line where it is, but I'm still not sold on this team especially on the road.  They go up against the always under rated Mike Leake who has pitched well against the Padres comibning for an ERA in the 3's, but last year he gave up just 1 ER in 2 starts.  Leake is also on 5 days rest in this spot and the Padres are 30th in OPS vs. RHP, and 30th in OPS on the road.  They score just 1.89 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road and are hitting .192.  The Reds double that run production at home and now their bullpen is also gotten a jolt with the return of Chapman.

Andrew Cashner will make a start for the Padres and he's really done a 180 the last few starts after a strong season start.. He still posts a 1.67 ERA at home, but a 5.00 on the road which is nothing new when looking at his last 3 years of production he posted a ERA that was 1.37 higher on the road than at home.  The Padres are also 1-5 in their last 6 visits to Cinci and 2-8 in their last 10 games with Cashner as a dog.

Yankees -148 4* MLB POD
I'm definitely being a square tonight, but that's okay as I think the Yankees have a greater advantage than the oddsmakers are leading on.. First of all Kuroda really has only had 1 bad start and I think the line should be 20-30 points higher so I'll grab the value as I explained in previous inter league match ups the home team always has a great advantage and they do again tonight.  Kuroda was dominant last year on 5 days rest and he will be on 5 days rest again tonight where he posted an ERA at home under 2.  Kuroda faces the Mets who are 29th in OPS vs. RHP and really struggling of late. 

Bartolo Colon will start, but he's posted a 7.23 ERA on the road he's an extreme fly ball pitcher  and it's warm in New York tonight.  He has not pitched well at this stadium and he has not pitched well against these hitters.  I expect the Yankees to get a few runs off Colon which should be plenty.  Jeter and Beltran both carry an OPS over 1.000 against Colon while others have very respectable numbers to combine for a team 368 AB .299 average and 1.030 OPS.  The Yankees typically struggle against pitchers they have not seen before, but Colon has been around the block and throws more fast ball by % than any other starter so he's not hard to figure.  Yankees are 47-23 in their last 70 home inter league match ups vs. RH starter and I look for win #48.

Nationals +120 3* mlb pod

Cardinals -120 4.5* MLB POD
The value with Wacha here who has posted a 1.90 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the road is just too much for me to pass up with the Cardinals bullpen posting an ERA under 3 over their last 10 games.  I typically will fade the Cardinals against a LHP and Liriano has posted solid numbers against the Cardinals, but the Cardinals made acquisitions to address their inability to hit lefties last year and they have started to finally pay off.  They're ranked 28th but were dead last vs. LHP as of last week in OPS, and over their last 10 games they have a .304 average and are scoring 6.23 r/9 vs. LHP.

Francisco Liriano has struggled in two starts this year as Johny Peralta is 13-40 career, Matt Adams and Yadier Molina combine for 5-8 this season alone.  Liriano has not put up good numbers 1.50 WHIP at home and his velocity is down.. He has a tERA of 4.49 and is walking over 4 guys per 9.  The Pirates are 7-17 in their last 24 vs. a RH starter.. take the Cardinals.

Blue Jays -121 4.5* MLB POD

Two veteran pitchers take the mound for today's match up in Toronto as R.A. Dickey looks to continue his streak of quality starts as he takes on A.J. Burnett who looks to continue his great year as he posts an ERA nearly under 2.  Head to head Dickey has 7 of 10 quality starts against the Phillies over his last 10 while Burnett has given up 5 or more ER in 3 of last 4 starts in Toronto.  Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are a combined 12-28 off him with 5 HR.  The Blue Jays offense is also starting to click scoring 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games compared with just 3 for the Phillies.  The Phillies bullpen has not been very good and I expect Burnett to struggle on 4 days rest on the road facing the Blue Jays who are ranked 3rd in OPS vs. RHP this season which is the best offense Burnett has faced.  Burnett did not go past 6 innings in the majority of his road starts on 4 days rest last year and now he has to face 9 real hitters being in an AL park where he struggled for years with the Yankees.

R.A. Dickey is a streaky pitcher and when his control is right he will dominate and almost always give you a chance to win.  The biggest issues that Dickey runs into when he struggles is control and the Phillies are 22nd in BB's and they only have 5 BB's in 103 AB against him.  Dickey who is walking 5 guys per 9 on the year has reduced those numbers significantly at home with a 2.42 BB/9.  A.J. Burnett will have the more challenging task and his raw numbers suggest he's been lucky to be where he is stat wise as his xFIP 3.87, and tERA 4.60 suggest.  Blue Jays are a run better vs. RHP ranking 3rd in OPS compared to the Phillies 25th and are the hotter team offensively right now while the bullpen is in Toronto's advantage as they are fresher right now and their ERA is about a run lower in H/A splits.  Once again I'll roll with the home team in an interleague battle as Toronto is 10-4 in their last 14 home games in interleague play.

Red Sox -142 4* MLB POD

I have had my struggles this year betting on or against the Red Sox, but I feel like they are about to get hot winning 3 of their last 4 games now and facing an over rated Reds team.  I always like betting the home team in interleague play.  I think the AL offense has a tremendous advantage and the NL pitching will have an advantage at home.  First of all NL teams are not used to putting a quality bat out there for the extra hitter and when the AL team travel their hitter is put in an uncomfortable position of having to hit which can screw with his mentality when he goes onto the mound.  Tonight we are betting the AL home team.

Boston will send Jake Peavy to the mound on extra rest tonight which has been a very good thing.  Dating back to last season Peavy has 9 straight quality starts on 5 or more days rest when he's at home posting a 2.47 ERA combined.  He's got great success against the Reds posting a 2.14 ERA over 10 career starts.  Reds hitters have a combined 71 AB, .183 avg, and .445 OPS vs. Peavy who always seems to pitch like the old Peavy when his arm is fresh.

Mike Leake has been a quality pitcher throughout his career he will not wow you but he's consistent and has been consistently good on the road.  However, now he has to face an extra hitter and the Red Sox offense seems to be coming around as Dustin Pedroia gets hot.  The Red Sox are 77-31 in their last 108 inter league home games and typically beat up on RHP.  Leake on just 4 days rest after pitching his best game in his last start and not getting the win will have a tough time here and he hands it over to a bullpen ranked 24th in ERA another major advantage for the Red Sox.

[b]Padres +107 4* MLB POD[/b]
We have a very interesting pitching match up here today with one of the most exciting young pitchers in Yordano Ventura facing off against a very boring LHP veteran Eric Stults. 64% of the public is all over Ventura and the Royals and why not he's #1 in average velocity and has pitched great, but his raw stats are a bit deceiving.  He walks over 3 batters per 9 and throws mostly fast balls and he's on 4 days rest yet again so I don't expect the Royals to let him go very deep into this game. What that means is the struggling bullpen will take over.  Royals bullpen has an ERA over 5 over their last 10 games while the Padres have a 1.02 ERA at home.

Eric Stults will pitch ahead of that bullpen and he finally gets a start against an easier team.  He's faced 5 top 10 hitting teams vs. LHP and now he faces the Royals at home on extra rest who are 29th in OPS vs. LHP scoring just 2.27 runs per 9 on the year.  I like my chances with the Padres and their bullpen to really shut down the Royals offense that has been struggling.  Stults was very good on 5 days rest last year and is pitching a bit better than numbers indicate.  He's 15-5 in his last 20 starts at home and posted a 3.06 ERA over 15 starts a year ago while the Royals are 0-6 in their last 6 at SD.

Rockies -128 4* MLB POD

I am still not sold on who the Mets send to the mound tonight in Zach Wheeler especially on the road.  Not to mention at Coors Field where the Rockies just continue to tear the cover off the ball with arguably their ace on the mound.  Jorge De La Rosa is the Rockies most consistent Rockies pitcher, but he has been far more dominant than most realize when you take into consideration that the Rockies are an amazing 42-14 in his last 56 home starts as a favorite.  De La Rosa has really been strong his last 3 outings and I think he continues that trend here on Friday night. 

Braves -123 4.5* MLB POD

The Braves are down 9-0 right now and they lost 9-0 on Tuesday, but I expect them to come back and close out game 3 to avoid a sweep as hot as the Marlins have been at home they are 18-45 in their last 63 game 3's.  The Braves also won't have to face another ridiculously hard throwing RHP after facing Nathan Eavoldi and Jose Fernandez back to back Henderson Alvarez who still throws pretty hard is going to be a lot easier.  Alvarez just does not have the numbers against the Braves posting a 6.86 ERA in 4 career starts.  Freeman, Gattis, Heyward, Johnson and Justin Upton are a combined 18-42 against Alvarez and that gives the Braves a significant advantage when you consider who they have on the mound.

Ervin Santana will make another start and he's putting up fabulous numbers with 10.08 K/9 just 1.63 BB/9 5.9% HR/FB while posting a 1.95 ERA and a 2.21 xFIP. compared with Alvarez who is only striking out 5.46 guys per 9 with 2.73 BB/9 and a 3.64 xFIP along with a 24.2% line drive %.  Santana is very solid at night and even better on 5 days rest which he'll be on tomorrow.  I expect another quality start from him as he was 12 for 12 on 5 days rest in 2013 posting a 2.18 ERA on 5 days rest.  He's handled the Marlins pretty well in his career.  The Marlins are 15-37 in their last 52 vs. RH starter 8-22 in their last 30 home vs. the Braves while the Braves are 25-12 in their last 37 vs. a starter with a WHIP > 1.30

[b]A's -110 4* MLB POD[/b]
I'm going with the A's here tonight despite how dominant Martin Perez has been, why else would he be an under dog at home?  Well it's because he pitches to contact and he'll be pitching in a hitters park here tonight to an Oakland offense that is putting up runs against LHP especially recently.  I expect Perez will give up a few, but I expect Scott Kazmir to continue what he's been doing which is getting swings and misses.  Kazmir has one of the best raw stats in the league since the season has started and he has certainly revitalized his career it seems.  He's getting a ton of swings and misses and has allowed just 11% line drive rate compared with Perez's 15.7%.  Perez xFIP is at 3.57, and he does not have nearly the same K/BB ratio that Kazmir has put up with 31K's and just 6 BB's.  I look for Kazmir to continue the success he's found early in this season and for Perez to start to come back to what he should be.

[b]Reds +112 3* MLB POD[/b]
Just one play today and we will go with the Reds who have the pitching advantage on the mound as the Braves send the young David Hale to the mound.  Hale has pitched poorly against two of the worst offenses in the league in the Mets and Nationals against RHP.  The Reds are 14th, but their offense gets better as the game goes along which I like a lot in these type of close games as the Reds are 4th in OPS after the 7th inning.  Hale throws mostly fast balls and is walking far too many guys right now and is likely to be replaced in the rotation when Minor returns.

Mike Leake on the other hand is always flying under the radar, but he's been very solid on the road throughout his career posting a 3.36 ERA in road starts over the last 3 years spanning 41 starts while he's also got a 3.47 ERA during 58 night starts overall which he'll make tonight.  Leake goes up against a HR dependent team in the Braves and he does not give up many home runs himself, less than 1 HR per 9 over the last 2 seasons.  Leake in 4 starts this year has an ERA over 3, but he has a 0.99 WHIP and I think he's pitched better than numbers indicate which have made him a dog today.  He's also got a 2.57 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Braves over the last 3 years and in 2 career starts at Turner Field has only allowed 2 ER.  The Reds bullpen is starting to come around and while the Reds lost 4-5 last night they are 60-21 in their last 81 games after they allowed 5 or more runs in the previous game.
    

Pirates +100 2* play[/b]
The Pirates have the betters starting pitcher on the mound tonight, the better bullpen and the better match up in my opinion as the Cardinals are 27th vs. the FB this year and will go up against one of the best fast ball pitchers in the game.  Cole pitched well with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP against the Cardinals over 3 starts last year and he'll face a Cardinals team that is hitting under .200 and scoring just 1.60 runs per 9 over their last 5 games.  Cole is averaging 95.5 mph on his fast ball and should hold an advantage over Shelby Miller who is also a hard throwing RHP.

However, MIller has a 5.93 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP in 5 career starts vs the Pirates.  Miller has struggled big time in his second season by walking 5.56 guys per 9 innings.  It's hard to figure since he's throwing 73% of his pitches as fast balls that he still is having such control issues.  Either way I like the fact that the Pirates have so much success against him with a .287 average and a .957 OPS over 87 AB.

Twins +112 4* MLB POD
If I asked you whose offense was better right now you'd say the Tigers without blinking, but that's why we get some nice value here on the Twins who should be favored.  The Twins are 3rd in OPS vs. RHP on the year while the Tigers are 15th.  They'll start an old reliable veteran in Kevin Correia who will always keep his team in the game.  Correia had 3 starts vs. the Tigers a year ago posting a 2.18 ERA over 3 starts and has all quality starts against this Tigers team in his career.  He has just 1 bad start this year and that was at home to the Athletics who are ranked 4th in offense.  Correia overall hada  3.35 ERA in 16 starts at home last year and I expect him to pitch well tonight since he's on extra rest which he recorded 7 of 8 quality starts at home last year with a 2.96 ERA.  He's held the Tigers in check an OPS under .700 while the Tigers are only scoring 3.06 runs per 9 on the road.  Minnesota is also backed by the better bullpen by over 2 runs in ERA.

Rick Porcello is on 4 days rest and has to face the #3 offense in the league vs. RHP they are scoring 6.22 runs per 9 vs. RHP and he's backed by a bullpen posting a 5.62 ERA.  In 149 AB the Twins have a .322 average and a .896 OPS against Porcello.

Red Sox -115 4* MLB POD

I will take the home team with the better pitching in this one.  The Yankees will also be busy answering questions about Pineda's pine tar incident from yesterday's match up, but I expect Boston to be focused to win this game as they are 18-3 in Felix Doubrant's last 21 game 3's.  Felix Doubrant does not have great numbers against the Yankees, but they are better than his opponent and he's backed by the 3rd best bullpen in the league while Sabathia is backed by the 22nd.  Doubrant had a 3.84 ERA here at home last year and has faced multiple top 10 offenses already this year while Sabathia has not faced a team inside the top 15 all year.

Sabathia in his last 12 starts vs. Boston has a 6.48 ERA and he carries a 7.41 ERA in his last 6 at Fenway over the last 3 years.  Sabathia is not walking guys but again he's faced some of the worst hitting teams in the young season and has still struggled.  His fastball is down nearly 3mph on average and I just think the Red Sox are poised to go on a little winning streak here as they are 17-5 in their last 22 games vs. LH starter while the Yankees are 4-9 in Sabathia's last 13 vs. the Red Sox.

[b]Mets +130 3* play[/b]
This is the third day in a row we are backing and under dog.. Maybe the third time is a charm because the last two teams we backed were unable to hold a lead.  I simply am fading the Cardinals offense who continues to struggle vs. LHP.  This dates back to last year when they ranked 26th in OPS vs. LHP.  Jonathan Niese is a capable LHP who is off to a nice start and I think he will have a higher probability to pitch a better game than Michael Wacha, because the Cardinals are 30th with a .497 OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 1.42 runs per 9 on the road vs. LHP.

The Mets are not much better ranking 30th in OPS vs. RHP, but have a .601 OPS and are scoring over 3 runs per 9 at home vs RHP so it is an advantage worth backign with the Mets as a significant under dog here tonight.  Both bullpens are nothing special ranking 21st and 22nd with identical ERA's of 4.31 and 4.32, but the Mets will be at home tonight and the Cardinal are just 1-7 in their last 8 games on the road vs LH starters.  Tonight's umpire is Marty Foster and the home team is 22-10 in his last 32 behind the plate vs. the Cardinals.

Orioles +125 4* MLB POD
There is simply too much value on the Orioles in this spot.  First of all their bats came alive as they scored 22 runs in their last series and I think that will carry over to Toronto where they will face R.A. Dickey.  Dickey always seems to struggle in the beginning of the season and he has yet to find his groove at home since being acquired by the Blue Jays posting a 4.80 ERA last year.  Dickey will be on 4 days rest and in his 3 starts last year vs. the Orioles he had a 7.86 ERA.  Baltimore comes into this game swinging the bat well 6.39 runs per 9 over their last 5 vs. RHP and a .305 average.  Toronto meanwhile can not claim the same thing as they carry a .228 average and 3.46 runs per 9 over their last 5 vs. RHP.

Miguel Gonzalez will make the start for the Orioles and he's very capable on the road posting a 3.50 ERA on the road over the last 3 years combined.  He's had great success in this Stadium posting 2.45 ERA in 3 starts last year here and a 2.30 ERA overall in his 5 starts vs. the Jays a year ago.  What impresses me the most about Gonzalez was his ability to keep his team in the game on the road especially when he was on 5 days rest where he posted 8 of 8 quality starts on 5 days rest and posted a 2.82 ERA.  I like the advantage Baltimore has in the bullpen as well of late and overall so I think the Orioles have the edge here and not the Blue Jays who feature a big name pitcher being over valued.

Oakland A's +107 4.5* MLB POD
Yu Darvish is the reason the Oakland A's are under dogs here at home and the Rangers better hope he goes like 8 innings because their bullpen has been just terrible posting an ERA over 7 on the road compared to the A's 2.25 ERA at home.  Oakland is also scoring 1.53 more runs per 9 vs. RHP overall and are 69-31 in their last 100 home games vs. a RH starter!  Yu Darvish is 1-6 vs. the A's and in his two road starts he has an ERA over 9 and a WHIP over 2 vs. the A's who are swinging some hot bats nearly 7 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5.  I don't see Darvish being able to go deep into this game considering he's on his 3rd start in a row on 4 days rest after throwing over 100 pitches in his last two.  Meanwhile...

Dan Straily is on 5 days rest and is 8-2 in his last 10 on 5 days rest.  He had two starts a year ago against the Rangers on 5 days rest and allowed only 2 ER in both road games over 12.1 IP.  Overall he's held them to a .195 average and a .529 OPS and on 5 days rest a year ago he had 12 of his 13 starts where he allowed no more than 3 ER and overall carried a 2.76 ERA.  Straily numbers wise is off to a tough start but I still like his potential as he's striking out nearly 4 more batters than he's walking which will produce good results over the long term.  I like the price and I'll take the A's here tonight.

Red Sox -152 4.5* MLB POD
On the eve of the Boston Marathon the Red Sox get a Sunday night baseball game and I expect this crowd to be alive knowing they have Monday off.  I think they have a huge advantage on the mound tonight with Ubaldo Jimenez taking toeing the rubber for the Orioles.  Jimenez is not the best in April posting a 6.05 ERA over the last three years.  He's off to another terrible start posting a 7.31 ERA in three starts while his counterpart Jake Peavy is posting a 1.93 ERA this year.  More on Jimenez though as he posts a 9.21 ERA in 6 career starts vs. the Red Sox while carrying a 1.97 WHIP.  He also has a 4.89 ERA over the last 3 years on the road over 50 road starts.

Jake Peavy on the other hand has held the Orioles in check over 79 combined at bats he's held them to a .190 average and a .581 OPS and carries a 2.45 ERA over the last 3 years in April starts.  He has 2 starts vs. the Orioles over the last two years and has gone 7 innings of quality pitching in both posting an ERA under 3.  There will be heavy hearts at Fenway tonight and Ted Barret will be behind the plate and home teams are 31-15 in his last 51 while Boston is 29-14 and the Orioles are 3-13 combining for a 71% angle.

Rangers -115 4* MLB POD

The Rangers won yesterday 12-0 behind their offense and major advantage out of the bullpen.  Traditionally I will start with the starting pitchers and the offense in my analysis, but today I"m starting with the bullpens which Texas holds a major advantage.  The Whitesox bullpen has been atrocious with a 6.29 ERA and a 6.62 ERA in road games while Texas comes in with a stellar 2.12 bullpen ERA at home and a 0.00 ERA over their last 5 overall out of the bullpen.  The Whitesox got off to a strong start, but have slowed down of late and their offense is struggling.  Over the last 5 they are scoring just 2.02 runs per 9 with an average under .200 while the Rangers are over .300 and scoring over 6 runs per 9 over their last 5.  However, the biggest differences that separate these teams today is not the offense nor the starting pitching but the bullpen.

The White Sox are also 17-48 in their last 65 road games while Texas is 21-7 in their last 28 vs. a losing team.. We get value here because Colby Lewis was not very good in his first start, but facing the White Sox offense at the right time.  Also he's held them to 2 ER over the last 3 years in 2 starts covering 15 IP.  Lewis has been a solid pitcher at home over the past few years and not many pitchers can claim that pitching in Arlington.  Jose Quintana who has been great so far had 5 innings of work and 4 ER in last years meeting here.  He also faces a Rangers line up that is ranked 8th vs. LHP on the season and is scoring 5.77 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the year.  I'm going with the Rangers as the White Sox just seem to be heading to a deep slump.

CLEVELAND INDIANS -140 5* MLB PLAY OF THE DAY

Today's play of the day is on the Cleveland Indians as I love the spot they are in against the Blue Jays.  First let's take a look at Justin Masterson who is backed by a bullpen that is nearly a run better in ERA on the year.  Masterson has struggled in back to back starts, but he's coming back home on 5 days rest where he has been absolutely dominant over his last 6 starts dating back to 2012 posting just 3 ER over 40.2 IP for a 0.66 ERA.  He's also got solid numbers against the Blue Jays with 5 of his 6 starts being quality posting a 2.79 ERA, but at home he's gone 23 innings in 3 starts posting a 1.57 ERA.  Masterson has always been a better starter at home to begin with and he's 12-4 in his last 16 as a favorite.  He will face a line up that is coming together nicely, but is still averaging over a run less vs. RHP than the Indians.

Drew Hutchinson has a lot of talent, but he struggles with consistency alternating quality and bad starts.  He really struggles vs. left handed hitters and it just happens that the Indians are hitting RHP well over 5.5 runs per 9 and will send 8 left handed batters to the plate tonight.  Hutchinson in 3 starts this year is nearly walking 5 guys per 9 and overall he has walked 8.59 guys per 9 vs. LHB.  Hutchinson has actually faced 5 batters in the line up who post a 1.258 OPS in limited at bats, but I think even with the juice we are getting good value on tonight's match up.

Rockies +137 4* MLB POD
Wow Andrew Cashner comes off just 4 days rest after he pitched the game of his life over the Tigers none the less.  He went 9 full innings allowed just 1 hit and 0 ER along with 2 BB's.  Cashner was also over 100 pitches for the second game in a row which is never a good thing for a young pitcher that throws 70% of his pitches as fast balls.  I'm not saying he's sore or anything, but long term results prove that the majority of pitchers on 5 days rest do better than on 4 days rest.  Throw in the monkey wrench of Cashner's terrific start and we have a very high probability for a let down.  I also love the fact that Cashner has struggled vs. the Rockies in 81 AB the Rockies have a .346 average and a .964 OPS against him. 

Now it goes without saying that the Rockies are not who we thought they were on the road.. Or maybe they are because they never seem to be able to put up many runs on the road.  However, the last two games have been decided by 1 run and I like the value we are getting on the Rockies here with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound.  De La Rosa has really struggled but now he finds himself in a perfect situation. He's owned the Padres 11-0 in his last 11 starts and has held them to a .671 OPS for active batters.  He's 3-0 in his last 4 starts at Petco posting a 1.88 ERA and the Padres are really struggling vs. LHP .169 average on the year with 1.59 runs per 9.  De La Rosa is relatively fresh pitch wise despite being on 4 days rest and should be able to go 7 strong innings tonight and carry the lead into the 8th inning.

Cardinals +106 4* MLB POD
Marco Estrada is off to a great start and so are the Brewers, but I'll take the value I am getting on the Cards here.  Estrada has a 2.31 ERA but he has a 3.95 XFIP and is walking 3.86 guys per 9 he's very lucky with a 89.3 left on base percentage.  The Cardinals are a very good bunch of hitters and will be able to score with runners on as they are hitting .338 in 130 AB against Estrada with a .918 OPS.  In 7s tarts he posts a 6.58 ERA vs. the Cards.

Shelby MIller on the other hand has a 2.03 ERA and the Brewers have a .218 average and .553 OPS in 78 AB.  The Brewers have struggled in 7 home games against RHP scoring less than 3 runs per game take the Cards.