Twins +118 3* MLB POD

White Sox +113 3.5* MLB POD

Giants +144 4.5* MLB POD The Giants bats have finally woken up scoring 23 runs in the last 3 games which is partially due to Pablo Sandoval coming out of his slump. The real story here is the Giants shutout the Padres last night as Tim Lincecum threw a no hitter. Lincecum had been awful on the road all year, but he got 13K's and threw 148 pitches last night which just goes to show you how bad the Padres line up is right now. Today Barry Zito will take the ball and he's been bad on the road but he has a 2.45 ERA during day starts this year and in 3 starts vs. the Padres posts a 1.65 ERA and the Padres hitters have a .676 OPS in 168 AB off him. The Padres are just struggling right now scoring 2.91 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 games with a .198 average and the Giants won't ask for Zito to go terribly deep as their bullpen is fresh having to only pitch 6 innings in 3 games. On the flip side Eric Stults has been great, but he's coming off a game where he threw 122 pitches which is 16 more than any other start this year. He only gets 3.5 days of rest since today is a day start and he faces the Giants who have a .336 average and a .874 OPS against him. Sandoval, Posey and Pence all have hit him extremely well going a combined 20-43. Stults also showed signs of slowing down before he faced Colorado allowing 9 ER in 8 innings. Completing a CG shutout against Colorado was not that shocking as the Rockies have been awful vs. LHP on the road and had a minor league line up out there. Michael Cuddyer was the only real threat that Stults had to get by and he still managed to walk 3 guys. The Padres bullpen has struggled in this series and I think they'll struggle here again. Padres are 29th in OPS during day games and 28th in ERA during day games this year.

Reds +116 2* play I had the Braves yesterday despite the Braves OF being at a significant disadvantage. I thought the Braves would simply out pitch the Reds while Homer Bailey struggled a bit on 4 days rest and I was right as the Braves OF combined for 7 hits, the most all season. However, now they'll get a look at a lefty and I think they'll struggle. The Braves are without both Upton's and Heyward and have a AAA OF playing right now. Cingrani has been solid and consistent on the year and I think he can put a quality start together. Julio Teheran has been dominant with a 2.50 ERA at home, but the Reds have dominated against RHP all year long and are scoring 5.02 runs per 9 over their last 10. It won't take much for the Reds offense to win this game and the Braves are 1-5 in Teheran's last 6 as a favorite -110 to -150.

Marlins -122 2* bonus
There is just too much value here to pass this up. Miami's offense has scored 14 runs in their last 2 games against RH starters and they face another one on Saturday as Dan Haren returns to the mound while posting a 6.00 ERA. Washington is 4-12 in their last 16 road games vs. a RH starter and 6-15 overall as a road dog. Miami has won 42 of their last 62 home vs. the Nationals and they have their ace on the mound. Jose Fernandez should pitch a gem tonight as he has a 1.47 ERA at home this year and faces a Nationals team scoring just 3.41 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road.

Orioles -139 2* bonus
Orioles look to stay in contention as they open up a 3 game series with the Blue Jays who are also back in contention. Jays start Mark Buehrle who has not been good on the road this year posting a 5.81 ERA and a 5.02 at night. Meanwhile Chris Tillman has a 3.61 ERA at night and his last two home starts vs. the Blue Jays have been good, but more importantly the Jays are struggling. The last 7 RH starters have a 1.84 ERA against the Jays. If Tillman can duplicate that he's backed by a bullpen that has a 2.05 ERA. Baltimore is also 9-3 in their last 12 vs. the Jays at home.

Indians -142 4.5* MLB POD
I actually love this match up as their is a ton of value to be had on Corey Kluber who has a 3.09 ERA at home this year which includes two solid starts against the Tigers who are one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. Kluber has been unlucky with a .335 BABIP on the year so his 4.23 ERA do not reflect his raw stats as he is averaging nearly 9K/9 with less than 2 BB/9 which is among the bets in baseball. He's got two starts this year vs. the Royals both on the road 12.1 IP 6ER, but only allowed 13 BR so it's been bad luck. I look for him to seek revenge back at home where the Indians are 18-8 in their last 26 as a home favorite.

Bruce Chen will make his first start after being in the bullpen all year and the Royals are 5-16 in his last 21 road starts. He's got a 2.41 ERA in 33 IP which looks nice in relief, but in reality there was a reason they moved him to the bullpen. His xFIP tells more of the story with a 5.20. The Indians over their last 10 games are scoring 5.73 runs per 9 vs. LHP and in 144 AB they have great numbers off Chen with a .319 average and a .913 OPS. Asdrubal Cabrera looks like he broke out of his slump and is 8-26 vs. Chen.

Padres -140 4* MLB POD Padres picked up a must needed win last night against the Rockies who are struggling to find their offense. Andrew Cashner makes the start for the Padres where he is on 4 days rest which has been a good thing for him. It has been hard for him to find a groove this season, but when he's on 4 days rest he's pitched well with a 2.50 ERA on the year. He also has a 2.38 ERA at home where the Padres are 19-9 in their last 28 vs. a losing road team with a record under .400. That's how bad the Rockies have been on the road just 17-41 in their last 58 when they are under dogs. Rockies send De La Rosa to the mound against the Padres, but I think the Padres have some confidence while De La Rosa has a 4.50 ERA during night games and an ERA over 4 when he's on 4 days rest which is not ideal for him. He's pitched well against the Padres in the past, but the Padres are hitting lefties decently this year with a .252 average and 4.27 runs per 9 which is more than the Rockies offense can say of late. Without Cargo, Fowler and Tulo in the line up the Rockies offense will continue to struggle as they are hitting just .193 over their last 10 games combined while scoring less than 3 runs per 9. Their bullpen has also suffered with a 5.70 ERA over that time and De La Rosa tends to not go deep into games of late and on the road.

Indians -150 2* bonus; Justin Masterson is having a nice year and is 12-4 in his last 16 on 4 days rest. He actually has three complete game shutouts on 4 days rest and 2 of those came at home where he'll face the Blue Jays who are in a little funk right now with the bats. Their last 4 games vs. a RH starter they have scored 2, 1, 0 and 0 runs in the entire game. Masterson does have a 2.80 ERA in 45 IP against the Jays, but a 1.10 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP at home in 2 great starts. Masterson should rebound from his poor start against the Tigers to beat a struggling offense. The Indians however have never faced Esmil Rogers, but I think they get the job done as Rogers is on hte road and the Indians are scoring more than 5 runs at home vs. RHP and are 17-8 in their last 25 home games vs. a RH starter. Rogers has always had control problems which usually does not translate well on the road where the Blue Jays are not as good.

Oakland A's -104 2* play
I view both bullpens as pretty even when we are talking about the A's and the Pirates. A's batting is just superior right now and I'll go with them to defeat the younger Gerrit Cole who is not even getting 5K/9. Dan Straily has not been very good on the road, but he has been unlucky with a 60% left on base percentage. He also has a .290 BABIP and has had to pitch in the AL. Pitching at PNC is one of the more pitcher friendly parks and he's pitching against a line up that shouldn't scare any one. I just think there is more value on the A's right now in this spot.

Braves -164 3.5* MLB POD
This is the 2nd time the Braves are seeing Henderson Alvarez in a row. In his last full season with the Blue Jays he allowed 18.1% HR/FB and had just 3.80 K/9. That's a bad sign when you talk about facing the Braves who seem like they either strike out or hit a home run. I think there is a major advantage and it's enough value for me to qualify as a smaller play of the day.

The Braves wills end Julio Teheran to the mound who has 7.11 K/9 and a 1.70 BB/9 ratio. Better yet Teheran has been better on 4 days rest posting a 2.93 ERA over 6 starts this year with just 1 being a non quality start. Facing the Marlins should help who have just .215 average and 3.45 runs per 9 vs. RHP along with a 5.62 bullpen ERA over their last 10 games. The Braves meanwhile have scored 5.67 runs per 9 and have a .291 average over their last 10 vs. RHP and their bullpen just continues to dominate with a 1.91 ERA. The Braves have also dominated the Marlins winning 37 of the last 51 meetings including 20 of the last 27 in Miami.

Brewers +125 1.5* play
Last time out we had Homer Bailey big and he produced by pitching a no hitter. This was almost our POD considering Bailey is now on the road and is due for a hang over after throwing a no hitter, but the Reds were smart and gave him 5 days off, but I still think he struggles. He's 2-7 in his last 9 road starts and has a 4.41 ERA on the road while he's given up 10 ERin his last 2 starts at Milwaukee who has a .851 OPS against him. Kyle Lohse starts for the Brewers and has looked consistent again.

A's -105 2* play
The A's have very quietly put up great numbers offensively. They've done it vs. LHP which they'll face tonight in Jeff Locke who is far exceeding his raw stats. Locke is walking nearly 4 guys per 9 innings has a 84.2 LOB% and has a .233 BABIP. I think it's more luck than skill and he faces the A's who are 4th in OPS vs. LHP and 6th in OPS on the road. Oakland is also scoring 4.95 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP. Meanwhile the Pirates still struggle at times putting runs on the board, but their pitching has been the best in the National League. Playing an American league offense could be trouble as they are 23-51 in their last 74 inter league games vs. a winning team and 0-9 in their last 9 vs. the A's.

Dodgers -173 4.5* MLB POD
I really did not like today's card so I'm going with a play with a steep price, but I feel it's still a good price considering the facts. Clayton Kershaw is easily the best pitcher in baseball right now and the Dodgers are easily one of the hottest hitting teams. Kershaw has absolutely dominated the Giants over his career. Posting a 1.33 ERA in 19 starts and 20 appearances. This includes a 0.73 ERA in San Francisco where he will be pitching today against a Giants team that is struggling scoring just 2.35 runs per 9 over their last 10. Crawford and Pence are in a combined 2-60 slump right now and they have contend with the very talented south paw in Kershaw.

On the flip side Chad Gaudin comes off the DL to make a start and he just does not have the arm strength to go deep. The Giants bullpen has been excellent, but they are getting a lot of work before yesterday's quality start by Bumgarner the Giants starters had averaged just over 3.1 IP per start over their previous 4. The Dodgers have hit Gaudin hard in the past with Ethier and Crawford a combined 9-21. Collectively the Dodgers are scoring 6.91 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. RHP.

Diamondbacks -164 4.5* MLB POD
I really like the Dbacks to stay hot right now as they did last night returning home to win their 3rd straight game over the Rockies. The Rockies have a few things going against them today.

For one they haven't been able to get to Wade Miley - 4 home starts against the Rockies and a 2.08 ERA to show for it. Secondly, they have injuries. Without Troy Tulowitski they have struggled against LHP even more than they already did. Scoring just 3.16 runs per 9 on the road against them. They are 21-44 in their last 65 overall games vs. LH starters. Thirdly they have Drew Promeranz on the mound tonight making just his second start. He's got a career 4.16 BB/9 which means he's not going deep into this game and the Diamondbacks should work themselves into good hitting counts. That also means the Rockies will have to rely on the bullpen which is not a good thing of late. Their available bullpen has a 6.60 ERA in each of the relievers last 3 games combined.

Diamondbacks have been a good home team Miley should benefit from a weakened Colorado line up especially if Carlos Gonzalez, who is questionable does not play. They are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. the Diamondbacks.

Tigers -154 3* MLB Early Bird Play
I like the Tigers here because their bats are hot right now scoring 31 runs in their last 4 games and they face a pitcher in Carlos Carrasco who is struggling big time. Carrasco has an ERA over 4 and in his career he has made 4 starts vs. the Tigers with a 9.50 ERA. He's never been a good pitcher at home with an ERA over 5.70 and a 5.37 ERA during day starts. Meanwhile Sanchez has a 2.16 ERA during the day this year and a 1.75 ERA in 4 career starts vs. the Indians.

I also like the fact that the Tigers have averaged 9.14 runs and have gone 6-1 in games against starters who are walking more than 4 guys per 9 innings this year. Carrasco has walked 4.26 batters per 9. I don't anticipate him going deep and the Indians bullpen has really suffered of late.

Phillies -164 4.5* MLB POD Love the Phillies in this spot. Everyone was saying the Pirates owned PA, but then the Phillies stepped up and won 2 of three in Pittsburgh. They now come home where they are 7-3 in their last 10 and 39-14 in their last 53 home following a road trip of 7 + days with their ace on the mound. Cliff Lee has flat out dominated the Braves in recent years posting a 0.78 ERA over his last 6 starts with 4 of the 6 going at least 8 innings or more. He's also on 5 days rest tonight where he's posted a 2.19 ERA this year. He's made 5 starts on 5 days rest and the worst start was 7 innings pitched 2 ER. I'm expecting a big outing out of him tonight as the Phillies try to go on a run to get back to .500. The Braves have been awful when they don't hit a home run and Lee is allowing only .57 HR/9 with a 6.7% HR/FB ratio. Lee also has a 2.60 ERA at night and has held Atlanta hitters to 3HR in nearly 200AB.

Phillies will face Tim Hudson who is 0-8 in his last 8 road starts. Hudson has struggled on the road all year 5.71 ERA and at night 4.45 ERA. He's struggled against the Phillies of late too and has allowed an .809 OPS over 353 combined at bats. Hudson who is also on 5 days rest has not been very good in this spot posting 4.09 ERA, but has failed to go further than 7 innings. Braves have been a dominating team at home, but less than average at home 20-23 and are 8-24 in their last 32 road games as a dog +150 or worse. Expecting the Phillies to win big tonight.

Dodgers +114 2.5* bonus A ton of value here in my opinion when you consider how hot the Dodgers are right now. It seems like they have everyone hitting their season stride and with Capuano on the mound on 5 days rest they should continue. The Dodgers are 11-5 with Cap on 5 days rest and the Rockies bats have struggled until last night, but they have struggled mightily vs. LHP for a while now especially without the help of Troy Tulowitski as they have gone 20-43 in their last 63 games vs. a LH starter. They will start Jhoulys Chacin on the mound who has been red hot, but it's been against struggling offenses in the Nationals, Phillies and Giants. Now facing the Dodgers who are #2 over the last 7 days in OPS and are scoring over 5.5 runs per 9 and a .330 average in their last 10 games. Chacin has also struggled against the Dodgers who have a .330 average and a .948 OPS against him. In his last 3 starts against them he has a 2.36 WHIP, and an ERA just over 9.

Royals -139 4* MLB POD In my opion this is a complete pitching mismatch. Ubaldo Jimenez has had a nice little run here of late, but he's still got a 4.91 ERA during the day and he's still walking over 4.5 batters per 9 innings. Jiminez has followed his trend of pitching well in June after struggling early. Over the last 3 years he had a 3.16 ERA during the month of June followed by a 5.63 ERA during July. I see that trend continuing with his first start in July coming today against the Royals who have scored 31 runs in their last 5 games alone. Jiminez is also on just 4 days rest where he has a 4.70 ERA this year and he goes up against a superior pitcher in Shields who is on an extra day of rest. Shields is on 5 days rest where he posts a 2.94 ERA in 7 starts this year. He's held the Indians hitters to a .211 average and .647 OPS in 166 AB and has a 3.00 ERA over the last 3 years against them. Shields is also backed by a far superior bullpen posting a 2.53 ERA at home compared with the Indians 3.80 on the road and they are more than 1 run better overall. KC is also #2 in day ERA with a 3.29 and a 16-13 record. The Indians are just 19-42 in their last 61 road games vs. a RH starter. I expect a close game early, but for the Royals to get a couple of clutch hits today off Jimenez.

Dodgers -106 2* bonus play
The Rockies are clearly struggling to score runs without Tulowitski int he line up. They are averaging just 2 runs per game over their last 5 home games. Greinke on 5 days rest and has held the Rockies hitters to a .608 OPS in 113 AB. Dodgers are on fire of late scoring more than 2 more runs per 9 vs. RHP than the Rockies over their last 10 games. Yasiel Puig continues to dominate and keep the Dodgers climbing int he AL West standings.

Yankees -153 3.5* MLB POD
The Yankees are making sure they win these games against weak competition. The Twins are able to hold their own at home, but against winning teams they are just 15-40 in their last 55 home games and the Yankees are 36-16 in their last 52. Tonight they send C.C. Sabathia to the mound who is 26-7 in his last 33 vs. AL Central. Sabathia is 9-1 in his last 10 starts against the Twins who have a .530 OPS in 129 AB with a .194 average. Sabathia has been great on 4 days rest ironically going 7 or more innings in 7 of 8 starts wiht a 3.06 ERA which is much better than his season ERA and I'm expecting the same tonight against the Twins.

P.J. Walters makes the start for Minnesota and he's allowed 16 ER in 9 innings and he's on 4 days rest as well and he's backed by a bullpen that has struggled big time of late especially in this series. Yankees are 43-17 in their last 60 road games with Sabathia as a road favorite.

[b]Reds -170 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Reds put up 8 runs last night looking like they have bounced out of their offensive slump. They are 4th in BB's and should get themselves in some good counts against Tim Lincecum who has struggled in his career against the Reds. Lincecum continues to struggle on the road posting a 5.23 ERA this year and on 5 days rest has a 4.65 ERA. The Giants are now 7-20 in their last 27 games as a road dog. Meanwhile the Reds are 40-14 in Bailey's last 54 vs. a losing team.

Bailey has been dominant on 5 days rest and he'll have his first start on back to back 5 days of rest where he posts a 2.57 ERA and has 3 gem performances. It's clearly when he's most dominant and I expect him to have little trouble with a Giants line up that has scored just 2.34 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games as Sandoval has gone 1-21 over his last 7 games. Bailey had 2 starts vs. the Giants last year and posted a 2.02 ERA a WHIP under 1 while striking out 16 batters and only walking 3. Cincinatti pitchers have posted a 3.30 ERA during night games this season and Bailey has a 2.89 while the Reds have gone 28-20 overall. The Giants are just 22-28 during night games and are 25th in ERA.

[b]Yankees +105 2* bonus[/b]
Yankees finally busted out of their offensive slump and I think they will have another chance to do so as they have plenty of confidence going into tonight's game. Samuel Deduno is getting too much credit thus far and now he's making a start on 4 days rest after 3 straight on 5 days rest which could mean trouble. He has not been able to go deep in games on 4 days rest and that will leave things to the Twins bullpen which has struggled big time lately. Meanwhile the Yankees bullpen posts a 1.35 ERA over their last 10 and 2.83 on the road this year. Phil Hughes has been far more dominant on the road and has a 2.48 ERA in 5 career starts against the Twins where the Yankees are 4-1.

[b]Reds -170 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Reds put up 8 runs last night looking like they have bounced out of their offensive slump. They are 4th in BB's and should get themselves in some good counts against Tim Lincecum who has struggled in his career against the Reds. Lincecum continues to struggle on the road posting a 5.23 ERA this year and on 5 days rest has a 4.65 ERA. The Giants are now 7-20 in their last 27 games as a road dog. Meanwhile the Reds are 40-14 in Bailey's last 54 vs. a losing team.

Bailey has been dominant on 5 days rest and he'll have his first start on back to back 5 days of rest where he posts a 2.57 ERA and has 3 gem performances. It's clearly when he's most dominant and I expect him to have little trouble with a Giants line up that has scored just 2.34 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games as Sandoval has gone 1-21 over his last 7 games. Bailey had 2 starts vs. the Giants last year and posted a 2.02 ERA a WHIP under 1 while striking out 16 batters and only walking 3. Cincinatti pitchers have posted a 3.30 ERA during night games this season and Bailey has a 2.89 while the Reds have gone 28-20 overall. The Giants are just 22-28 during night games and are 25th in ERA.

Yankees -111 3* MLB POD
I have got to take the Yankees here today with Andy Pettitte on the hill with a ton of value. Pettitte has pitched extremely well over the years in Minnesota where the Yankees have simply dominated (39-13 L52 meetings). Yankees offense is clearly struggling, but they should hit well against Scott Diamond who has a 6.21 ERA at home while lefties and righties have an OPS over .800. Pettitte meanwhile has a 2.81 ERA in 6 road starts and has a 1.77 ERA in his 3 road starts on 4 days rest. Diamond meanwhile is 5-11 in his last 16 starts on 4 days rest and 3-10 in his last 13 home starts while Pettitte is 49-23 in his last 72 as a road favorite. Yankees still have plenty of veteran leadership and I expect Pettitte to be one of those veterans to step up tonight as the Twins just are not very good against winning teams going 15-38 in their last 53 home games. Yankees still fall into that category with a 42-39 record.

Braves -142 3.5* MLB POD The Braves are ranked 6th in OPS and 3rd in ERA during day games where they are 15-10 while the Diamondbacks are 21st and 19th. Arizona also sends Trevor Cahill to the mound for just his 2nd road start on 4 days rest all year long. Over his last 4 starts on 4 days rest he posts a 7.71 ERA and in his 2 career starts vs. the Braves he's allowed 8 ER in just 10.2 IP while giving up 3 HR. The Braves are an amazing 43-9 whent hey hit a HR this year and they have the leagues best home record where they have beat the Diamondbacks 8 of their last 9 visits. Cahill has not pitched on the road posting a 4.74 ERA while Maholm has been great 1.80 ERA on the year at home and comes into this game on 6 days rest and is supported by the best bullpen in baseball that posts a 2.17 ERA at home. Arizona is scoring just 2.90 runs per 9 on the road vs. LHP so this is a good match up for the Braves with plenty of value at -142.

U8 DET/TB -120 2* This was an intense extra inning game yesterday with us getting a loss as we backed the Tigers, but after Fernando Rodney threw at MIguel Cabrera I know we would get some value here on Sunday. The Tigers will most certainly return the favor and the hitters today should be a little tense. Also both starters have had success against opposing teams with both having 4 career starts. Porcello posts a 2.33 ERA in 4 career starts vs. the Rays who are without Longoria again and scoring just 2.84 runs per 9 over their last 10 while Hellickson posts a 1.95 ERA vs. the Tigers who really are not the same during the day and road games offensively.

[b]Orioles -123 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
Phelps has struggled in his two starts against the Orioles who are able to get him in good counts and hit home runs. Baltimore should be able to do the same today while Zach Britton has looked okay in his last two starts, but the thing I like about him today is he knows he's probably the odd man out and I'm expecting a solid start against a beatable Yankees line up.

[b]Tigers -138 2* bonus[/b]
No Longoria this is simply too much value with Verlander on the mound who has been very unlucky this year with a .350+ BABIP. The Rays won't have Longoria who left last night's game and they have been hitting 2.75 runs per 9 VS RHP last 10 games. Verlander 9-3 in his 12 starts vs. the Rays. Tigers 25-12 in their last 37 vs. a starter with a WHIP > 1.30. Chris Archer is walking over 5 batters per 9, Tigers should be able to take advantage.

[b]Orioles -123 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
Phelps has struggled in his two starts against the Orioles who are able to get him in good counts and hit home runs. Baltimore should be able to do the same today while Zach Britton has looked okay in his last two starts, but the thing I like about him today is he knows he's probably the odd man out and I'm expecting a solid start against a beatable Yankees line up.

[b]Tigers -138 2* bonus[/b]
No Longoria this is simply too much value with Verlander on the mound who has been very unlucky this year with a .350+ BABIP. The Rays won't have Longoria who left last night's game and they have been hitting 2.75 runs per 9 VS RHP last 10 games. Verlander 9-3 in his 12 starts vs. the Rays. Tigers 25-12 in their last 37 vs. a starter with a WHIP > 1.30. Chris Archer is walking over 5 batters per 9, Tigers should be able to take advantage.

Rangers -120 3.5* MLB POD
The Reds have gone into a bit of a slump while the Rangers are coming off a hot road trip. I'm banking on the Rangers to continue their success when they send their young pitcher Martin Perez to the mound. Perez has averaged aroudn 94mph on his fastball as a lefty. The Reds have struggled on the road vs. lefties scoring just 3.15 runs per 9 and 2.38 over their last 10. The Rangers are also backed by a bullpen that has a 2.62 ERA at home and 2.65 ERA over their last 10 so they should be in good shape. The Reds send Johny Cueto to the mound, but he's coming off one of his worst starts and really has not looked the same of late as he posts a 4.57 ERA. Texas is scoring 5 runs per 9 at home vs RHP and are 23-4 in their last 27 home games following a road trip of 7 days or more. Reds have been consistently good the last few years, but when they take their game against a good AL team they are 14-37 in their last 51 vs. winning team in inter league play. Texas falls under the category of a "good" team and they have won 8 of 10 games while the Reds have lost 4 of 5 on their current road trip while getting out scored 29-15.

[b]Twins -127 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
Right now there may not be a more streaky pitcher in MLB than Jeremy Guthrie and right now he's struggling. Now he goes on the road to face the Twins where the Royals are just 9-21 in their last 30 in Minny. Guthrie has an ERA over 6 in June starts over the last 3 years so there is not a coincidence that he's struggled this month and against the Twins he has struggled to in 104 AB they have a .298 average and a .981 OPS. The Twins bats are also heating up right now ranked 4th in OPS .830 over the last 7 days. KC on the other hand are ranked 20th.

KC has had a difficult time against RHP and they'll face Sam Deduno who has an ERA at home under 3.00 in his career. He's a ground ball machine and hardly gives up home runs which means you have to work and get consecutive hits to score off him. I don't think the Royals can do that right now as they have a .561 OPS off Deduno who has given up 1 ER in 2 starts against them. Guthrie on the other hand is giving up nearly 2 HR per game and caries an xFIP OF 5.14.

Oakland A's -145 3* MLB POD; SEA/PIT U7 2* PLAY Oakland really need the day off yesterday as they just capped off 30 games in 31 days and I think they will come refreshed at home where they have been dominant winning 45 of their last 61 games against RH starters. Bronson Arroyo continues to put up solid numbers, but I will continue to fade as he is bound to resort back to the mean as he has a 4.24 XFIP which is more than a run higher than his ERA. Arroyo has just 5 road starts and 10 at home and posts a 4.45 ERA on the road. Arroyo has a 1.45 WHIP over his last three games alone, but posts a 2.18 ERA so he's clearly been lucky, but the A's have been one of the more clutch teams all year and I expect him to be fighting from behind for most of the night as Tommy Milone continues to pitch well. Milone has a 2.48 ERA in 6 home starts this year and a career ERA under 3 over 23 home starts. Expect more of the same against the Reds who have struggled big time of late especially against LHP where they are hitting .203 and scoring 1.95 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. They are 12-25 in their last 37 road games in inter league play vs. a LH starter

[b]Giants +104 3* MLB POD[/b]
I see a ton of value here on the Giants despite how nasty Ryu has been at home. The Giants have now faced Ryu twice and they should have a solid idea on how to approach him as they got 18 hits off him through his two starts. Pence, Posey, Scutaro and Torres are a combined 12-23 against him which is better than what the Dodgers have done against Bumgarner who they have a .450 OPS against in 113 AB with a .186 average. LA continues to struggle at the plate and are scoring just 2.20 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. The Giants meanwhile have scored more than 4 and clearly have the more established pitcher and bullpen as Bumbgarner has given up 1 run or less in 4 of his 5 starts in LA.

[b]A's -143 4* MLB POD[/b]
Oakland has the better pitching and they have the better hitting ast hey are scoring nearly 2 runs more per 9 innings. Seattle's available bullpen has a 12.54 ERA over their last 3 starts combined each and the Mariners are 5-15 in their last 20 as an under dog. Jeremy Bonderman however has pitched well and is giving us good value on the A's because of that. Bonderman however has feasted on luck and bad competition. Those two things will run out today.

Despite only 2.92 K/9 he's got an ERA well below 4 because he's stranded 85.5% of base runners and has gotten lucky with a .215 BABIP. His ERA should be closer to 5. On the flip side Jarrod Parker keeps getting better. He had a 7.36 ERA in April, 3.62 in May and followed it up with a 1.91 ERA in June so far. I think he keeps it going as the Mariners have a .537 OPS against him in 85 AB.

Angels -112 4* MLB POD I see a ton of value here today in the Angels bouncing back from a loss last night. After all they are 41-20 in their last 61 home games in inter league play while the Pirates are 13-53 in their last 66 inter league road games, combining for a 94-33 trend which is a 74% winning percentage and we get them at -112. Angels are also scoring 5.5 runs per 9 over their last 10 games while the Pirates are at just 3.87 with a 4.25 ERA out of their bullpen. They'll start Francisco Liriano who continues to pitch well, but I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel for Liriano. Liriano on just 4 days rest now hast to go on the road out west and face an AL team in a ballpark he has a 7.06 ERA in 4 career starts. Not to mention Liriano has a 1.33 WHIP on the road which certainly does not go with a 2.70 ERA on the road. My opinion he's been lucky at times and his control was good early in the season but 10 BB's over his last 3 starts won't get the job done tonight. The Angels are 5-0 following a loss in their last 5 home games and are 42-19 in their last 16 inter league games vs. a LH starter. They will send Jerome Williams to the mound who has a 2.63 ERA on the year at home between his 4 starts and 10 overall games covering 37.2 IP where opponents have just a .190 average. He mixes 4 pitches well and the Pirates who are 20th in OPS vs. RHP and 21st on the road should have a hard time considering they have never faced him.

Dbacks +106 3* MLB POD
I see a ton of value on the Dbacks here tonight as under dogs at home with Wade Miley on the hill. First of all Johny Cueto's numbers are not as good as they seem. He's gotten extremely lucky in a small sample size since he's been up and down with injuries. He's got a 86.8 LOB% and a .189 BABIP along with a 2.70 BB/9 which is not that impressive. In addition the Diamondbacks hitters have a .835 OPS against him and Prada and Parra are a comibned 8-21 with 2 HR and 7 RBI. The Diamondbacks are actually 11-2 in their last 13 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15

Miley has struggled in his last two starts at home, but he comes into this game with an extra day of rest. The Reds are hitting just .189 and scoring 1.21 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP and just 3.04 on the road this year. With the Reds struggling against LHP along with the Dbacks success against Cueto making just his 2nd start in the month of June I am think the Dbacks can pull this win off in their own building.

Marlins +168 2* bonus Plenty of value here on the Marlins in my opinion. Chad Gaudin makes a start and he's basically a reliever being asked to stretch out in a starter role. The Giants offense has been struggling ever since their key injuries and the Marlins have Tom Koehler on the mound who has decent stuff and has had many quality starts already. It's hard to pass up the Marlins at this price with Gaudin and a banged up offense for the Giants.

Tigers -114 3* MLB POD The Red Sox may have the best record in the AL, but the Tigers have the most talent and the most wins at home. Lackey has shown signs in his last two starts of unraveling and this making his 3rd start on just 4 days rest facing a solid offense like the Tigers is the start I bet he does. 3-6 hitters in the line up are 26-71 against him. In 141 AB he's allowed an OPS of .842 to Tigers hitters. Tigers are scoring over 6 runs at home while the Red Sox are struggling vs. LHP especialy on the road just 3.55 runs per 9 and 1.64 over their last 10 games. The Tigers will send Jose Alvarez to the mound who was impressive in his first start against the Indians who are ranked 3rd in the league in OPS vs. LHP and now he faces the Sox who are 15th. IN the minors Alvarez has shown he's a 4 pitch pitcher with good control. He's got 9.33 K/9 and just 1.78 BB/9. He should be able to duplicate that early on in the majors until teams start to figure him out. Tigers are 37-14 in their last 51 home vs. RH starter.

Dodgers -102 2*
A lot of value here on Ryu who has been flat out dominant. The Yankees never hit well against pitchers they haven't seen before never mind one as dominant as Ryu has been. Phil Hughes has been excellent of late, but his success has always come on the road. At home he has an ERA over 5. Plenty of value here on the Dodgers.

A's +160 2* play
A's have given Yu Darvish more trouble than any other team while Oakland has hit well on the road so I see a ton of value here in this line. Meanwhile Jarrod Parker has been living up to his season from last year posting a 1.69 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Parker has good success against the Rangers too.

Braves -180 4* MLB POD RL +116 1* BONUS
Braves won't lose two in a row to the lowly Mets especially at home where they are 49-18 in their last 67. It's a high price to pay, but there is some value because the media hype is on Zack Wheeler who has not been that great in the minors. He's got nearly 4 BB/9 which should get him in trouble with the Braves who are 5th in the league in walks. Meanwhile Paul Maholm has not given up an earned run in 3 straight starts against the Mets and has a 1.64 ERA at home this year.. Mets just scoring 1.93 runs per 9 with a .156 average vs. LHP over their last 10 games and have a clear disadvantage from the bullpen where they post a 5.55 ERA on the road compared with the Braves 1.83 ERA at home.

Astros -104 3* MLB POD
I like the Astros to complete the 4 game sweep they have been winning a lot lately something the White Sox can not claim. White Sox have dropped 14 of 18 and have scored 4 runs or less in 14 of those games. Bud Norris takest he hill where he has a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts and a 2.28 ERA at home. He'll face a White Sox team that is 17-39 in their last 56 games as a road dog and are scoring just 3.43 runs per 9 vs. RHP and among the worst in OPS vs. RHP. Meanwhile the Astros for whatever reason have beat up on LHP at home.

White Sox send Jose Quintana to the mound and he'll facet he Astros who are scoring 5.78 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home. Look for that success to continue again tonight as the Astros stay hot and the White Sox move to 12-25 on the road.

Braves -156 3.5* MLB POD I love the Braves in this spot as they are 38-14 in their last 52 home games vs. RH starter. They'll face Tim Lincecum who has a 5.40 ERA on the road this year. The biggest advantage the Braves have in this game is Tim Lincecum is on 4 days rest. Over his last 18 starts on 4 days rest dating back to last season he has just 5 quality starts and posts a 6.30 ERA. Lincecum is clearly not the same as he was when he was a perenial Cy Young winner and we know that and he's fade material on the road where the Braves are scoring 1 more run per 9 vs. RHP than the Giants on the road, and their bullpen is nearly 2 runs better than the Giants as well. Atlanta will have to be patient they are 5th overall in BB's and Lincecum has struggled to go deep into games because of his control issues as he' walking 4 guys per 9 and that's without facing top 10 teams in BB's as he's got just 3 starts vs. teams in the top 10. The Giants line up meanwhile is beat up too and that should bee good for TEheran who has a 2.97 ERA at home this year as he won't have to face Pagan, Sandoval and possibly Scutaro.. Giants are just 3-9 in their last 12 as a road dog and after tonight they should be 3-10.

Phillies +106 2* play Colorado is 15-45 in their last 60 Sunday games and although I had them yesterday in a win I will be fading them on Sunday. Their line up should start to struggle against LHP especially without Troy Tulowitski in the middle to protect. Cole Hamels has a 1.95 ERA in his last 5 vs. the Rockies and has been good in his road starts this year with a 3.48 ERA while the Rockies turn to Jhoulys Chacin who can not seem to get over the hump at home posting a 5.44 ERA this year. The Rockies are 17-40 in their last 57 vs. LH starter while Chacin is just 6-16 in his last 22 on 4 days rest.

Yankees +105 3* MLB POD
The Yankees offense has been abysmal lately, but their pitching continues to be a strength especially the bullpen (2.63 ERA road, 1.99 Last 10 games). Today they will send David Phelps to the mound who has been great on the year he's got a 1.16 WHIP on the road with a 3.66 ERA. He's getting 9.1 K/9, but walking 3.9 guys. He should be helped by the fact that the Angels are 27th swinging at 32.7% of pitches outside the zone. He's never made a start against the Angels but has faced them in 20 AB and only allowed 1 hit to Erik Aybar.

On the other side we have Tommy Hanson who continues to try to get back to his quality pitching days with the Braves. He's got a 1.70 WHIP at home and a 5.28 xFIP. His ERA could be worse, but he's got a 82.3 LOB%. He's only getting 23.8% outside the zone swings which is a big red flag. I see the Yankees offense thriving a bit and coming out of their slump tonight. I looked up their games against starters who struggle to get guys to swing at stuff outside the zone and they have won 90% of those games and put up some big runs. Yankees are smart they should be patient and work themselves into good counts and break out of their 4 game losing streak.

Rockies -142 2.5* Early Bird Special
Rockies will continue to play without Troy Tulowitski who went on the DL but they scored 7 runs in the loss last night anyway. They are 2nd in OPS vs. RHP while the Phillies are 20th. The Phillies are only scoring 3 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road and will face Tyler Chatwood who has yet to give up a HR this year. Chatwood comes into this game fresh so he should be able to give 6 innings of 1-2 ER ball. He's been great all year with a 3.05 xFIP. Pettibone has a 3.70 ERA and will face the Rockies, but a 4.59 xFIP should be red flag. He's walking over 3 guys per 9 innings and does not have 6 K/9.

Brewers +135 3* MLB POD
We are getting good value here with the Brewers with Kyle Lohse on the hill who is coming off a great starts looking like his old self going 8 innings allowing just 1 ER against the Phillies. Lohse has great numbers against the Reds too as they have managed just a .637 OPS in 123 AB against himwhile he's posted a 1.69 ERA in his last 6 starts against them.

Brewers offense has been hot lately and it's the reasonw hy they have won 5 of 6. They will face Bronson Arroyo who they have decent numbers against including 13 HR in 297 AB. He's got a 4.10 ERA in his last 9 starts against them and the fact that he's making a night start is not good he's always posted an ERA's in the 4's during night starts. The Brewers bats have been working and there is a lot of value with Lohse on the mound so I'm going with the Brewers.

[b]Rays -120 3* MLB POD[/b]
Rays kept hitting on Tuesday and I don't see how they won't keep hitting on Wednesday. Alfredo Aceves takes the mound for the Red Sox and has walked 5.47 runners per 9 innings and has allowed 25% HR/FB and 2.95 per 9 innings. The Rays have 8 HR in the last two games and are among the most patient teams in the league. Aceves does not get anyone to swing at his pitches outside the zone and I don't see how that will change tonight against the Rays who are #1 in the lowest outside the zone swing %. They area lso ranked top 10 vs all 4 of his pitches. Meanwhile Chris Archer who does not have electrifying stuff by any means has a 2.84 ERA in 3 career home starts and faces a Red Sox team that's ranked 17th and 19th vs. the slider and change up, pitches Archer will throw enough. Boston can hit, but they have not been good against good competition going just 19-40 in their last 59 vs. a winning team and are 17-38 in their last 55 as an under dog. Rays should have an advantage in the bullpen as well as they have posted a 2.31 ERA over their last 10 games while Boston is at 4.41 and have worked hard to get there with Boston's starters unable to go deep in this series. This series has been like a playoff atmosphere and I"ll take the home team.

Rockies -150 2* bonus Dan Haren has a 6.41 ERA in his last 3 starts vs. the Rockies and homers have been the main issue for him all season long giving up 2 per 9 innings and a 15% HR/FB ratio for a fly ball pitcher does not help either. The Rockies are #2 in OPS vs. RHP, #2 in HR vs. RHP and of course #1 in HR at home. Cargo/Tulo have 6 HR combined off Haren and the Rockies have been hot of late with 10 HR in their last 7 days rankings #3 in OPS over that time. Washington on the other hand hit well on Sunday through a double header, but the day off is not a good team that looked like they were getting out of their offensive slump. Washington still has just a .227 average and 2.74 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. RHP. Chacin will make the start and has a greater chance to win in Colorado as he's a GB pitcher and only allowing 0.27 HR/9. His main pitches are fastball and slider where the Nationals are ranked 29th and 24th. The Nationals have won with pitching and when Vegas expects a lot of runs like tonight they tend to lose as they are just 22-46 in their last 68 road games with a total of 9-10.5 runs.

Pirates -123 3* MLB POD Gerrit Cole makes his debut against a banged up Giants team that is scoring just 2.61 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games combined and are now without Pagan and Sandoval which will continue to hurt them especially against an elite pitching staff like the Pirates who have the 3rd best bullpen and post a 2.01 ERA at home. Gerrit Cole has 183 K's in 200 innings in the minors and has held opponents to a .190 average this year. He's facing the Giants at the right time being at home and against a banged up line up. Meanwhile the Pirates are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a RH starter and Tim Lincecum has been awful posting a 5.67 ERA ont he road and only a 4.45 ERA in 5 career starts against the Pirates. The Giants are now 7-15 in his last 22 starts vs. a winning team.

[b]Rays -139 4* MLB POD[/b]
This is an interesting match up, but I will go with the home team with the better pitcher every time. The Red Sox have been red hot with the bats but I think now they go on the road and will be slowed down by Tampa who is 11-1 at home against teams with a winning road record better than .600. They are also 17-5 in Alex Cobb's last 22 overall starts who has a 1.91 ERA at home this year and a 2.01 ERA at night along with a 2.77 ERA in 2 starts vs. the Red Sox.

Red Sox hitters have a .198 average and a .591 OPS vs. Cobb who is quietly in the Cy Young race and has really stepped up big in David Price's absence. Boston is just 6-20 in their last 26 road games vs. winning team so their winning road record on the year is a little deceiving. Boston will start John Lackey who has 4 quality starts in a row, but I think he will falter here as he has never had great success against the Rays or on turf for that matter. He's got an ERA over his last 10 starts on turf and he's allowed 28 ER in just 30 innings over his last 6 at Tampa. Lackey has been getting by with a 33% oustide the zone swing %, but the Rays are #1 in plate discipline only swinging at 25.8% of their pitches outside the zone. This should get them in good counts and if it does Lackey has not pitched well against these hitters as they have a 152 career at bats with a .296 average and a .842 OPS. The Rays are 7th in OPS at home and are averaging 5.5 runs per game while going 18-6 in their last 24 vs. a RH starter.

Cardinals -105 4* MLB POD
The Cardinals have not lost a series since April and that's because they have been great on the road winning 20 of their last 27 games and they are also great at turning a loss into a win the next day as they are 35-16 in their last 51 games following a loss. They have 4 hitters that are riding 9+ game hit streaks and have dominating RHP which they will face on Sunday night in Bronson Arroyo who is 8-15 with a mediocre 4.54 ERA in 35 games vs. the Cardinals over his career. The Cardinals continue to have hot bats hitting .313 and scoring 6.03 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. RHP while the Reds have been struggling .228 and 2.83 runs per 9. Lance Lynn will get the nod and he's been great this year vs. the Reds only allowing 2 runs over 13 innings over 2 starts.

Giants +121 4* MLB POD
Cain has really struggled on the road this year, but it really has been more bad luck than anything else he has an ERA over 5 this year, but a WHIP of 1.21 which tells me he should be in the 3-4.00 ERA range. He's been really unlucky with a 62% LOB on the season, but the Diamondbacks are 27th in OPS with RISP and 2 outs and are batting just .190 in that spot so I think he can have a great game here tonight. It also helps that the predictive line up has a .213 average against him and he has a 2.84 ERA over his last 13 starts vs. the Dbacks. Cain also is June which is his strongest month over the last 3 seasons where he posts a 2.44 ERA.

On the flip side Patrick Corbin has started to come back down to earth with back to back subpar outings. Facing the Giants whoa re 50-26 in their last 76 games vs. a lh starter won't be easy. Corbin has been lucky with a .255 babip and a 84% lob percentage but the Giants over their last 10 games have a .338 average and are scoring 5.82 runs per 9 vs. LHP and have been among the leaders in clutch hitting all year especially on the road.

[b]Rockies -128 4* MLB POD[/b]
Rockies are on fire scoring 12 runs yesterday as Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki dominated. Now they come back home without rest which is great for them as it does not break their rhythm. They have hit Andrew Cashner hard in the past especially at home as Cashner has allowed 8 runs and 3 HR in just 4 innings of work in relief. His last start vs. the Rockies came at home where he allowed 6 ER on 10 hits in just 3.2 innings. The Rockies are 3rd in OPS vs. RHP and are even more dangerous at home while the Padres are ranked 21st and will face a pitcher they have struggled against big time.

Jhoulys Chacin has a 2.21 ERA against the Padres in 6 career starts 5 of which came at Coors Field. He is only allowing 3.6% HR/FB which makes him a dangerous pitcher at home meanwhile Cashner is 12.5%. Both pitchers throw a fast ball, slider and change up and the Rockies are ranked on average 7th combined against those three pitches while the Padres are ranked 18th. The Rockies also have pitched well out of the bullpen with a 2.54 ERA at home while the Padres could struggle here and have a bullpen ERA over 4 on the road. The Padres have lost 18 of their last 26 road games as an under dog +110 to +150

[b]Yankees -138 3* MLB POD[/b]
I like the Yankees in this spot as the Indians have started to cool off offensively especially against RHP batting just .246 and scoring 3.96 runs per 9 vs. RHP ont he road this year. They will face David Phelps who had a nice start allowing 1 ER in Cleveland earlier this year and won't have to face Asdrubal Cabrera who headed to the DL yesterday. The Yankees bats have been cold, but yesterday back at home they woke up with Teixera leading the charge with a grand slam. I expect Phelps to pitch well after all he is striking out nearly 9 per nine innings and has a low 8% HR/FB ratio which is good for Yankee Stadium. Indians have also relied on the home run quite a bit so this is a bad match up for them.

On the other side we have Scott Kazmir who pitched a gem his last time out, but I'm still not sold on Kazmir's resurgence on the road. Now that the Yankees have a couple of guys back in the line up with power Youkilis and Teixera I see them going on a nice run here. Either way I don't see Kazmir going deep into the game and the Indians bullpen has struggled posting a 10.61 ERA over their last 10 games. Indians are just 16-38 in their last 54 games at Yankee Stadium while the Yankees are 42-19 in their last 61 home games vs. a LH starter.

Indians -119 3.5* MLB POD I really like the Indians here today not only are they 37-18 in their last 55 vs. the Rays at home, but they are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a RH starter who they'll face in Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson has struggled lately with just 1 quality start in his last 7 appearances while he has posted an overall 5.59 ERA on the road. Hellickson will primarily throw a fastball and change up, but he'll face an Indians teamt hat's ranked 4th vs. the FB and 1st vs. the CH. The Indians are also 2nd in the league in OPS during day games while the Rays are ranked 29th. The Rays will run into Zach McCallister who has been very consistent for the Indians. Rays have gone into a little bit of a slump hitting .195 and scoring 2.89 runs per 9 in their last 5 games. They also are -.72 runs per 9 overall on the road compared with the Indians at home. McCallister has a 2.16 ERA in home games this year with a 2.84 ERA during day starts. He should have the advantage as the Rays hitters have just 45 AB wtih a .561 OPS and Longoria, the Rays most dangerous hitter is in a major slump going 6-39. Cleveland is the more clutch team right now and has won 16 of their last 21 home games and lead the majors in average with 2 outs and runners in scoring position.

Cubs -137 4* MLB POD
The Cubs have quietly been hitting the ball at home all season ranking 3rd in OPS for a .822 OPS at home. They have been clicking scoring 36 runs over their last 5 games while their bullpen has also come together. Cubs are scoring 5.57 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home this year while they will face Ian Kennedy who has struggled with a 4.85 ERA on the road this year and has a lifetime 6.94 ERA vs. the Cubs. Cubs hitters have a .884 OPS against Kennedy and should have a significant edge here with the Cubs throwing their ace out there.

Jeff Samardija has been spectacular this season with a 2.88 ERA at home he's only had one start vs. the Dbacks, but I think he comes out and throws another great game. Samardizja will mix 4 pitches with 70% of his pitches being fast ball and slider. The Dbacks according to fangraphs are ranked 28th vs. the slider and 13th vs. the fast ball. They do best when hitting change ups and curve balls which Samardijza will not throw. Kennedy on the other hand does not mix as much with 83% of his pitches being a fast ball change up and those are the two pitches the Cubs like the most ranked 10th and 11th in the league. I look for the Cubs success to continue once again tonight.

ANGELS -109 4* MLB POD

[b]Brewers -119 4* MLB POD[/b]
Wandy Rodriguez is on one day less of rest and has an ERA of 6.11 ERA on the road this year he also has a 5.06 ERA in his last 5 starts at Miller Park while Yovani Gallardo is 10-3 with a 2.52 ERA in his career vs. the Pirates.

Several of the Brewers hitters have big numbers vs. Rodriguez while Gomez and Braun have been leading the majors in avg vs. LHP Gomez has a .362 average and a 1.083 OPS vs. LHP while Braun has a .388 average and an OPS well over 1.000 too. Braun joins Aoki, Ramirez and Weeks who are a combined .357 average and 8 HR in 157 AB. Milwaukee is also backed by a bullpen that has produced a 1.69 ERA over their last 10 games and they have dominated the Pirates at home going 45-9 since the start of the 2007 season.

[b]Giants -123 4* MLB POD[/b]
The Giants have lost 4 straight to the Rockies which is weird since they are 20-6 in their last 26 home games against them. The Rockies will have their hands full Saturday afternoon with Barry Zito as they are 16-35 in their last 51 games vs. LH starters and on the road they are scoring just 2.80 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Zito meanwhile has dominated the Rockies for many years at home going 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA in 12 career home starts against. This year has been no different as he pitched a 7 inning shutout and in 5 home games this year he has a 0.55 ERA and a 1.60 ERA during day games this year.. Zito has dominated both Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki.

Giants offense will look to rebound after being shut out at home for the first time all year at home last night. Juan Nicasio was just getting ready to be heading to the minors when he had a decent start against the Dodgers at home, but Nicasio has a career ERA over 5 during day starts and road starts. The Giants are scoring 4.58 runs per 9 vs. RHP and they are backed by the better bullpen as well. Nicasio is 0-2 in two career starts in San Francisco with a WHIP nearly at 2 and a 5.73 ERA. Look for the Giants to rebound here today from last night's loss and get a big win.

Yankees -101 3* MLB POD
The Yankees have lost 13 of 16 in Tampa Bay, and because of that I think we are getting good line value considering the pitching advantage the Yankees will have during tonight's game. Phelps has been impressive over his last 3 starts with a combined 1.83 ERA against 3 solid hitting teams who rank 11th, 6th and 4th in OPS vs. RHP. He'll face the Rays who are 9th, but he's handled them pretty well as they have a .156 AVG and .469 OPS in 32 AB.

Roberto Hernandez on the other hand had been pitching well until Baltimore hit him hard last weekend. I see more of the same tonight with Curtis Granderson back and going going 3-3 in his last game and Cano hitting 3 HR over the last 7 days they are a combined 28-62 against Hernandez who will also have to get by plenty of lefties in the Yankees line up. That should be an issue because lefties have a .940 OPS off him this year. Hernandez biggest problem is giving up the home run as 25% of his fly ball have resulted in HR and that comes out to nearly 2 per 9 innings on the year. It just so happens that the Yankees continue to be a team relying on HR's. They lost their last two games facing the Orioles starters who both had HR/FB ratios at 11%. I expect the HR to fly again tonight along with the Yankees complete game effort as they also have a major advantage in the bullpen and even Fernando Rodney has 4 blown saves on the year for the leagues 29th ranked bullpen.

Diamondbacks -155 4* MLB POD
Even at this price I see us getting value. Aaron Miley comes off a rough start, but it was vs. the Braves a solid hitting team ranked 8th in OPS vs. LHP. Miley will face a Marlins team that's dreadful ranked 29th vs. LHP and at home they are hitting .165 scoring 1.17 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Miley has 2 career starts vs. the Marlins both coming last year he went 14.1 IP gave up 8 base runners total and no earned runs. He has a 1.78 ERA during 7 career day starts and he's on a full 5 days rest after only throwing 86 pitches. He's also backed by a bullpen that has a 2.82 ERA on the road and is super fresh only throwing 1 inning over the last 3 days combined. Miami is 16-35 in their last 51 games vs. a LH starter while the Diamondbacks are 20-6 in MIleys last 26 vs. a losing team.

The Marlins will send a veteran to the mound in Ricky Nolasco but in his last 4 starts vs. the Diamondbacks he's given up 19 ER in 21 innings while allowing 39 guys to reach base which is nearly 2 per inning. Montero, Prado and Ross are a combined 22-58 against Nolasco so plenty of success as the Diamondbacks are 9th with a .756 OPS vs. RHP and are scoring over 5 runs per 9 innings on the road vs. RHP. Arizona is also 7-2 during day games this year while Miami is 2-11 ranking 22nd with a 4.30 ERA

Braves -160 3.5* MLB POD Atlanta before last night's rally against the Dodgers at home had played 26 of 34 on the road. They had a day off before this series started and it seemed to be worth it as they rallied to win 8-5. The Braves will send Kris Medlen to the mound who has not been as nearly as dominating this year, but he's 2-0 in 6 games vs. the Dodgers with a 2.30 ERA and he has a 2.84 ERA at home. He goes up against a Dodgers team that is 29th in OPS vs. RHP while the Braves will face a LHP where they are ranked 6th in OPS with a .782. Capuano has had a lot of success in the past vs. the Braves, but he still does not seem to be in the groove of things this year and I also think he'll have a hard time now having to face Justin Upton int his line up who is 5-14 off him and hit a grand slam on Friday night. The Braves are scoring 6.87 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home this year where they have won 39 of their last 56 games. Braves are scoring 1.5 more runs on the season vs. LHP than the Dodgers are vs. RHP and their bullpen is nearly 2 runs better. Those stats are only more in favor of the Braves when we look at home and away splits as the Braves have a 2.40 ERA from their bullpen compared to the Dodgers 5.21. Last but not least Jerry Lane is behind the plate and the home team has won 7 of his 8 behind the plate this year

Orioles -115 3* MLB POD
We took yesterday off in MLB after losing 2 consecutive days with the Orioles after a blown save and an 8-4 loss. However, the Orioles also had the day off and they come into this game 23-7 in their last 30 games following a day off. They are also still 36-15 in their last 51 following a loss and 10-4 in their last 14 meetings with the Rays. I think overall they have the total pitching advantage.

The Orioles have the 4th best bullpen ERA while the Rays are 27th and have the 25th worse ERA on the road this year. Jeremy Hellickson has pitched well at Camden Yards in the past, but Jones and Davis have hit him hard going 18-49 with 4HR. The long ball has fueled this Orioles team and Hellickson has struggled giving them up especially against LHB who he's given up 8 HR to as they have a .918 OPS against him. The Orioles line up will feature 5 lefties. While the Rays line up features 6 lefties.

Jason Hammell is actually pitching better vs. LHB than RHB which is rare considering he is a RHP. The same case was true last year as lefties had a .586 OPS against him compared to RHB with a .692. He'll benefit in this match up and he's also on an extra day of rest. Tampa is 4-11 in their last 15 road games vs. a RH starter and have had more success vs. lefties this season. Hammel has held Longoria to 0 hits in 4 AB.

Orioles -148 5.5* MLB POD
Baltimore lost a tough one last night as they blew a save in the 9th and lost 3-2 after holding a 2-1 lead. This has been a very resilient team under Buck Schowalter and I think we see that come full circle on Wednesday afternoon when they face the Padres again. The Orioles are 36-15 in their last 51 following a loss and they

BALTIMORE -140 4* MLB POD

Rockies +146 2* bonus
The Rockies have not scored a run in the series so you may be wondering why I'm backing them today against the Cardinals who are scorching hot. I just think there is a ton of value at this price. The Cardinals have not hit lefties well in fact the 7 LH starters that they have faced posted a 2.97 ERA and that includes a start where they faced Jonathan Sanchez who could not complete an inning.

Jorge De La Rosa has been great this year and he should be looking forward to facing the Cardinals 27th ranked OPS team vs. LHP. The Cardinals over their last 10 have hit just .169 and 1.82 runs per 9 vs. LHP. De La Rosa has only struggled against teams ranked in the top 10 in OPS vs. LHP. Dodgers and the Brewers got 10 runs off him in 8.1 innings pitched. In his other 5 starts he has a 1.50 ERA this year. The Caridnals will send Jaime Garcia to the mound who has pitched like an ace especially at home, but in 3 career starts against the Rockies he's given up 18 ER in just 13.2 IP. I think if nothing less this game goes to the bullpen where the Rockies have a significant advantage posting a 3.02 ERA on the road compared with the Cardinals league's worst 9.51 ERA at home.

Twins +100 4.5* MLB POD
Scott Diamond's only bad start was his first start of the year against the Mets. He still posts a 3.03 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP to boot. Baltimore is 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a LH starter and they have only hit .220 and averaged 3 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road this year. In comparison the Twins have hit .292 and have scored 7.60 runs per 9 vs. LHP this year with a strong bullpen at home 2.89 ERA. Baltimore too has had a strong bullpen this year, but they come into this game 3 having already pitched 10 innings in this series and I think that could be a huge factor on Sunday. Baltimore has also struggled more of late with the bats hitting just .143 and scoring just 1.83 runs per 9 over their last 10 games when facing LHP.

Diamond has been solid at home over his career of 17 starts he posted a 3.58 ERA and during day games 3.23 ERA before this year in 14 starts. Diamond is having an excellent year as a ground ball pitcher he's only allowing 0.61 HR/9 which is bad news for the Orioles who rely on the HR ball quite a bit to get their runs. Wei Yen Chen's numbers are down this year his K/9 are down to 5.10 and his walks are at 2.55 and it's mainly due to the fact that he's not getting hitters to chase outside the zone as his O-swing% is down to 26.4% from 31.9 a year ago. That's a major difference and the Twins are 8th in BB's and 9th in plate discipline. To put things in perspective Chen recently faced the Mariners who have struggled vs. LHP and are 7th in plate discipline and they were able to get to him early. Baltimore is also 21st in ERA during day games at 4.31 while the Twins who are 10-5 during day games have the 4th best ERA at 2.98.

Yankees +130 4* MLB POD
I can not pass out on this value we have today with the Yankees with Andy Pettitte on the mound. Not only is he on an extra day of rest where the Yankees are 44-21 in his last 65 on 5 days rest, but they are 70-28 in the last 98 meetings with the Royals. Pettitte has had a very tough schedule of starts facing 34 teams in the top 10 in OPS vs. LHP. Today he faces #11 which does not get much easier, but he's had a history of success against the Royals and at Kaufman Stadium where he posts a 2.47 ERA going back to the 2000 season. Overall he's 14-3 in 22 career starts vs. the Royals with 3.36 ERA and the Yankees have won 11 of his last 12 starts against them. The Royals over their last 5 games are only scoring 2.95 runs per 9 vs. LHP.

The Royals send James Shields to the mound who has pitched like the ace they thought they acquired. However, he's done so against weak competition. Despite facing 2 teams in the top 5 in OPS vs. RHP he's faced 5 in the bottom 15. The Yankees are 2nd with a .815 OPS vs. RHP and have hit even better on the road scoring 6.17 runs per 9 vs. RHP this season. Shields started 6 times vs. the Yankees last year posting a 6.03 ERA and despite the Yankees missing a lot of their great hitters they are still putting up great numbers vs. RHP. There are a few guys in this line up that have good numbers vs. Shields who is way over due for a poor start. Gardner is 9-31, while Cano has huge numbers going 31-75 with a .413 average. The Yankees will be well prepared because they know Shields pretty well and given the fact that they are a big dog I like the value we are getting.

Mets -115 3* MLB Early Bird Special
I think there is great value here with the Mets on Saturday with Jonathan Niese on the mound. Niese has struggled this year, but I believe he will start putting it all together. He still has not been as bad the numbers show when you take into consideration how bad he was against the Braves who with all due respect are 4th in OPS vs. LHP. Today he gets to face the Pirates who are 26th in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring just 2.74 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road. Niese has a 2.08 ERA at home this year and over the last three years it's evident he pitches better at home and better during day games. His biggest struggles this year are getting guys to chase outside the zone compared to years passed and it's resulted in more walks than he's used to. Facing the Pirates who he has a 1.93 ERA in 3 career starts should help as they are 24th in BB's vs. LHP and 22nd in in plate discipline as they'll chase a lot outside the zone which should benefit Niese big time! He's also 12-2 in his last 14 Saturday starts.

On the other side of the mound we have Francisco Liriano making his first start. He's looked good in the minors but stepping up to the big leagues is a different story. In 2011 and 2012 he struggled with control walking more than 5 guys per 9. I have a hard time seeing that much has changed and that's a perfect match up for Mets hitters who are 6th in BB's vs. LHP and 5th in plate dicipline vs. LHP. Mets are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. the Pirates, and 16-7 in the last 23 times the oddsmakers have listed them as favorites. Pirates are also just 36-75 in their last 111 road games vs. a LH starter.

Rays -169 5* MLB POD; Rays -.5 1st 5 Innings 2*, Rays RL +130 1* I really like the Rays in this spot today going up against the San Diego Padres and Edinson Volquez. Volquez has always been a pitcher who has struggled on the road and this year is no different he posts a 6.97 ERA in 4 road starts. We are getting a ton of value here because Mr. Volquez has a 2.33 ERA over his last three starts, but he faces his most challenging task here today. Why? Well I've studied Volquez the last few years and his biggest weakness is his control. He gets behind in counts and now he's not getting as many hitters to swing at things outside the zone which leads to good hitting counts especially on the road and he's getting hit hard. In fact when you take a look at his starts vs. top 15 teams in the league in BB's he's actually got a 8.05 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. The Rays are 10th in BB's (1st in 2012), but what is even more impressive is there ability to get into good hitting counts. The Rays are 1st in outside the zone swing % at 23.8%. That's the least amount of swings at pitches outside the zone in the entire league. That's going to put them in great position tonight against Volquez. The Rays are also 3rd in OPS over the last 7 days and are sending a pretty good starter to the mound Friday night. Alex Cobb has a 2.74 ERA over his last 15 home starts for the Rays and his xFIP is at 3.22 which tells me he is pretty close to what his ERA is telling us for this season. Cobb has actually posted better numbers this year at home 1.17 ERA over 3 home starts and 2 of the 3 was against teams ranked in the top 5 in OPS vs. RHP (Yankees and Indians). The Padres are ranked 22nd so he gets his easiest start of the year at home tonight. The Rays are 13-4 in his last 17 starts and 40-19 in their last 59 games as a favorite -151 to -200. I know -169 is not a ton of value to be chasing, but I still feel under normal circumstances this game would be more like -200+.

A'S +105 4* MLB POD
I think the public is spot on here with this one. I feel there is great value here fading Cleveland as they tallied just 1 run last night in a nice win which showed signs that their offense would be coming back to the norm and quick. They have been a team that has struggled vs. RHP anyway and they'll face A.J. Griffin who has been excellent on the road this year. The Indians are 18-38 in their last 56 vs. a RH starter and Griffin had two impressive outings throwing 15 innings allowing 1 ER 13 base runners in a pair of road wins vs. the Yankees and Angels. He's backed by a bullpen that has a 2.74 ERA on the road which is better than the Indians 3.16 at home.

Indians will throw Justin Masterson out there who will face an Oakland team that is averaging more than 5 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road. Now that they have Cespedes back in the line up I think things will start to click for them again and they have dominated Masterson who got off to a fast start and has started to struggle like he has in years past. He's got a 10.36 ERA in 6 career starts with a 2.12 WHIP vs. the A's, who are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings and 17-5 in their last 22 overall with Griffin on the mound. I like the dog line here.

Rockies -115 3* MLB POD
I like the Rockies to beat the Yankees who are 7-16 in their last 23 road games vs. a winning team. The Rockies will have a big advantage in the bullpen tonight and they never hesitate going to it as they have posted a 1.01 ERA over their last 10 games combined and a 2.60 at home this year while the Yankees have a 5.72 bullpen ERA on the road. Hiroki Kuroda has struggled in Colorado in the past and I see the Rockies who are scoring 5.38 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home this year getting to him early and getting to the Yankees bullpen as well. On the flip side the Rockies are 25-4 in Jorge De La Rosa

Giants -139 2* Late Night Fix
Based on the total of 6 I think it's easy to say we can expect a pitching duel tonight. Both Bumgarner and Cliff Lee have excellent numbers against each other and good home/away splits. This game will most likely come down to the bullpens and that's where the Giants have a big advantage. The Giants bullpen has a 2.09 ERA at home compared with the Phillies 5.02 on the road and 5.28 over their last 10 games. The home team will also have the advantage hitting in the bottom of the inning. I expect the Giants to jump on Lee early and then win in a close game.

Brewers -115 4* MLB POD Brewers have lost three straight and will try to avoid the sweep on Sunday. I think they will get the job done against Jaime Garcia who has been one of the best pitchers at home over the course of his career (2.33 ERA last 3 years at home), but on the road he's been completely different posting a 4.46 ERA and he's actually struggled big time in Miller Park. Over his last four starts here he has gone just 19 innings allowed 18 ER with 35 base runners, which is nearly 2 per inning. The Brewers have hit lefties hard all season .289 average 5.79 runs per 9. At home they are even better .306 and 7.39 while in their last 10 games they have a .281 and 8.44 runs per 9 vs. LHP. With Aramis Ramirez back in the middle of the line up this team will continue to hit lefties especially at home. Marco Estrada on the other hand has had a 3.03 ERA at home over the last three years and I think we are getting good value with him. He's got 8.66 K/9 with 1.78 BB/9 this year with a 3.58 xFIP. He's pitched decently enough to win all 3 of his starts vs. the Cardinals going 6 innings in each game with a 4.00 ERA. The Brewers are 21-7 in their last 28 as a favorite -110 to -150 while the Cardinals are 5-16 in their last 21 road games with Garcia ont he mound facing a team with a losing record.

Royals -142 4.5* MLB POD I think we are getting really good value here when we look at the facts. Jeremy Guthrie has been outstanding and the Royals have not lost in his last 16 starts while he's posted a 2.44 ERA. He's been dominating with the Royals against the White Sox over 5 starts he's walked only 3 guys and has a 0.50 ERA. The White Sox have a .200 average and .610 OPS against him in 215 combined at bats. The White Sox are 12-28 in their last 40 vs. a RH starter and 6-22 in their last 28 on the road vs. a team with a winning home record. The Royals bullpen is also well rested after a game got called early on Thursday so look for them to be strong on the back end of things as they have posted a 1.36 ERA over their last 10 games while the White Sox bullpen has had troubles. White Sox bullpen has a 6.12 ERA and it's a direct result of their starting pitching being weak because of injuries. Axelrod has been decent posting a 3.95 ERA on the year, but on the road he's allowed 8 ER in 9.2 innings and roughly 2 base runners per inning he's pitched. He's been lucky with a .241 BABIP. He's feasted on some weak competition and I think the Royals will be able to scratch some runs off him early which should be all they need.

Cardinals -112 2.5* play Really hard to pass up on the value we are getting with the Cardinals on Saturday. Adam Wainwright has dominated the Brewers in his career and has always been a good pitcher during day games (2.84 ERA last 3 years). He had a complete game shutout at home vs. the Brewers and over his last 4 starts at Miller Park he's only given up 4 ER in 28 innings. He's held the Brewers to a .630 OPS in 254 AB. Gallardo has pitched well of late and that's why we are getting the value we are. A closer look reveals that he's done so against weak offense as the Giants, Padres, and Pirates don't exactly scream offense. He's really struggled vs. the Cardinals in his career. In fact the Cardinals are 13-3 when he starts games and he's posted a 7.20 ERA in his last 10 starts vs. them. Cardinal hitters have a .312 average and a .950 OPS in 154 AB with 10 HR.

Pirates -129 2* play / Pirates U7 +105 1* play Detwiler has been solid on the road and on the season and although the Pirates bats are starting to heat up I expect him to pitch for a quality start. The Nationals on the other hand are in a lot of trouble they are just awful of late and have a .218 average and 2.93 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road. They managed 3 runs last night in our total winner, but 2 of the 3 were off an error. There bullpen has really held them in games posting a 2.16 ERA over the last 10 games and I think they will hold them in this game as well, but the Pirates send AJ Burnett to the mound who should shut the Nationals out he's on an extra day of rest compared with Detwiler and has a 2.89 ERA at home this year 3.10 last year in 17 starts. He had an 8 inning 2 ER performance last year vs. the Nationals and I look for him to continue that today. The Pirates play in a pitcher friendly park and that's bad news for the Nationals offense. 17 out of the last 23 home games for the Pirates have gone under the total.

Indians -153 4* MLB POD Indians are on fire right now and they have the right match up facing a lefty in Pedro Hernandez who does not have anything special in his repertoire. An average 88mph fast ball he's gotten lucky with a .250 BABIP and a 92.1 LOB% with just 4.11 K/9 and 2.35 BB/9. I expect the Indians to stay hot as they are hitting .321 with 8.50 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. LHP while their bullpen has been pretty darn good over that period as well with a 1.26 ERA. They are 4th in the league in OPS vs. LHP so this is clearly something they are doing well on the season. Twins on the other hand are not as good vs. RHP with a .214 average and just 3.09 runs per 9 over their last 10 games and are ranked 27th in OPS on the season vs. RHP. Justin Masterson has been solid at home and posts a 2.57 ERA. He's had quality starts in 4 of his last 5 home starts vs. the Twins and should have another one here tonight.

[b]Diamondbacks -115 3.5* MLB POD[/b]
I think there is value to be had as the Diamondbacks look to avoid the sweep. Brandon McCarthy has not pitched as bad as his ERA says in fact he has a 3.85 xFIP, but his .396 BABIP and 54.6 LOB % has really hurt him. He'll face off against Tim Lincecum who has a 6.00 ERA in his last 5 starts at Chase Field. Lincecum is allowing 5.16 BB/9 on the season and is lucky to have an ERA under 4 right now. He'll face the Diamondbacks who are 7th in OPS vs. RHP and are backed by a better bullpen which is really rested after pitching a combined 3 innings over the last 2 games.

Royals -145 4.5* MLB POD
The Royals will send Wade Davis to the mount here today against the Indians who struggle vs. RHP scoring just 3.22 runs per 9 vs RHP on the road. They score about double that vs LHP and it showed yesterday when teir team put up some runs. Davis won't go deep into the game but he's backed by a bullpen with a 0.86 ERA at home. Davis raw numbers are pretty good as he has a 3.88 XFIP which is lower than Ubaldo Jimenez who will make the road start for the Indians.

Jiminez in 2 career starts at Kaufman Stadium has a 5.79 ERA and he has not been able to get out of the 5th. Allowing 16 hits and 6 walks in just 9.1 innings it could actually be a lot worse. I look for KC to win this game because JIminez continues to be over valued and even though he's an under dog he should be a bigger one. Indians are also just 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs RH starter and 4-17 in their last 21 as a road dog with Jiminez on the mound.

Athletics -142 4* MLB POD
Bartolo Colon keeps getting it done as he is 3-0 through 4 starts with a 0.92 WHIP and 2.42 ERA on the year. Gonzalez on the other hand has a 1.46 WHIP and a 5.55 XFIP as he's walking 4.5 guys per 9 and only striking out 4.88. He's gotten lucky with a 76.4 LOB % and a .268 BABIP as he has faced 4 opponents ranked int he bottom of the league in OPS with runners on (27th, 24th, 18th, and 18th). The A's offense is ranked 4th with runners in scoring position and 6th with runners on so this should be a different type of game. Meanwhile Colon does not give up the long ball just 6.5% HR/FB and that's what the Orioles rely on for scoring runs. In 125 AB he's held them to a .583 OPS with a .216 average. Look for Oakland to avoid the 3 game sweep at home where they are awfully good.

Astros +183 2* EB play
Bud Norris has had only one start this year where he's given up more than 2 ER. This is crazy good value in my eyes and I just can't pass it up. Lackey is making his 2nd start of the season since hurting his right bicep and hadn't pitched since 2011 before that. Houston has hit the ball well vs. RHP all year long including a .281 average and 5.54 runs per 9 on the road with a 4.25 bullpen. Both those numbers are better than what Boston has done at home. I see the Astros avoiding the 4 game sweep which is extremely hard to get in baseball. I think it's a great spot to take a chance with the Astros with great value. Boston is 7-19 in their last 26 as a home favorite -151 to -200.

Diamondbacks -150 3.5 * MLB POD
I like the Dbacks to take the series tonight against Jeff Francis and the Rockies. Francis has not pitched well this year walking 5 guys per 9 and he will be pitching on 3 days rest here today as he did a few times last year but I dont trust him in this spot vs a team that has traditionally hit lefties well at home. Rockies bullpen has a 4.74 ERA on the road as well while the Dbacks have a 2.02 at home. Wade Miley will look for another quality start and in 3 career home starts vs the Rockies he has pitched well allowing 6 earned runs in 21.2 innings. Rockies have a .235 and are only scoring 2runs per 9 vs LHP on the road while the Dbacks are backed with a 2.02 bullpen. Arizona is 16-7 in their last 23 home meetings wiht the Rockies. Colorado is 7-19 in their last 26 road vs. a LH starter.

Phillies -116 4.5* MLB POD
I think we are getting a bargain here with Halladay on the mound who is 4-1 with a 0.98 ERA lifetime against the Pirates. Halladay started the year cold, but has looked like his old self in his last two starts giving up just 3 ER over 15 innings. He's backed by a bullpen that has posted good numbers of late as well including a 2.84 ERA over their last 10 games. Halladay's main issues have been walks and home runs and the Pirates are ranked 23rd and 22nd in both categories so I think he is set up nicely in this game.

Wandy Rodriguez meanwhile will face a Phillies team that's hitting .236 and scoring 5.14 runs per 9 over their last 5 vs. LHP. Rodriguez last start in Philly he gave up 7 ER in just 4 IP. 1-4 in this line up have solid numbers off him going 18-55 with 2 HR. Rodriguez stats are a bit misleading because he's been lucky with a .119 BABIP on the year. I expect that to revert to the norm here shorly.

Giants -145 5* MLB POD
Patrick Corbin has been great to start the year with a 1.42 ERA over 3 starts including a dream start last time out at Yankee Stadium with 7 innings 1 ER. I see a let down for the 23 year old today, also the Yankees are ranked 28th vs. LHP in OPS to start the year. Also just how good has Corbin been? Well not very good when you look at his stats he's got jsut 6.16 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, .226 BABIP, and 91.8 LOB% The .226 and 91.8% go hand in hand in saying he's been a little lucky. His xFIP concurs at 4.09 so I think he comes into this start with too much value thus we have value on Matt Cain. Corbin also had 2 starts in San Francisco last year and he had two bad starts allowing 10 ER in 8 IP. Cain meanwhile only allowed 7 ER in 4 starts with 3 of the 4 being in Arizona last year. His home start he only allowed 4 hits and 0 ER over 7 innings.

Giants are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. Dbacks with Cain on the mound. I also like the way their bullpen has been dominating of late with a 2.33 ERA over their last 10 and a 1.26 ERA at home where they are scoring 6.31 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Posey is also heating up which should help greatly vs. LHP as he has 2 HR in the last 2 games.

Reds -155 4* MLB POD
Travis Wood is very under rated, but he rolls into a very tough task on Monday playing the Reds who have overall great numbers vs lefties including 6.36 runs per 9 with 7.05 at home. His only road start in Cinci he gave up 6 ER in just 5 innings. On the flip side Mike Leake has been great vs. the Cubs where the Reds are 7-3 in his 10 starts in his career where he posts a 3.56 ERA. More importantly is he has a 2.12 ERA in his 4 home starts in his career.

Cubs right now are struggling to hit and on the road they are hitting just .199 vs. RHP with 2.75 runs per 9. Their bullpen on the road is 1.53 runs worse than the Reds at home. Travis Wood has not fared well vs the Reds line up in 43 AB they have a .302 average and a .938 OPS. Cubs are 5-17 in his last 22 starts as an under dog and the Reds are 36-16 in their last 52 meetings with the Cubs. I expect the Reds to take this game.

Indians -113 5* MLB POD
I like the Indians to continue their scorching offensive run from a day ago and to take game 3 from the Astros who are 18-53 in their last 71 game 3's. I think this is excellent value considering the Indians are better vs. LHP and they'll have Jiminez on the mound who tends to pitch well against these type of teams.

Jiminez main issue has been home runs and BB's which kind of go hand in hand, but the Astros are 24th in BB's and are even worse on their home and vs. RHP splits. Same goes for home runs they are 13th, but at home they are ranked 21st. Houston also is ranked 27th with a .589 OPS during day games while Cleveland is #1 with a .955 OPS. Houston is also ranked 29th in ERA during day games and are 0-4. Jiminez has had 2 starts vs. Houston over the last three years and posts a 0 ERA holding them to a .108 average and .375 OPS in 37 combined at bats.

Erik Bedard on the other hand has allowed an .890 OPS in 87 combined at bats vs. the Indians. Indians have beaten up LHP with 5.77 runs per 9 overall on the season 8.48 runs per 9 on the road. Their bullpen is also 2 runs better than the Astros who had to pitch a bunch of guys in yesterday's blow out loss. Houston has struggled to hit RHP at home with a .185 average and 1.97 runs per 9 at home. This is exactly the type of game Jiminez can have a quality start in and I think he will after two rough performances.

Red Sox -155 2.5* Early Bird Play

Rays -129 4.5* MLB POD
I love the Rays in this spot. I thought the A's were going to be in trouble without Cespedes and it is slowly catching up to them as they are only hitting .218 in their last 5 vs. RHP. Rays are slowly heating up with the bats led by Evan Longoria who has 4 HR in his last 5 games and I hope I will start to heat up with some winning picks. The Rays have 20 runs in their last 3 games and will host the A's who have made their first road trip to the east coast and lost their first game last night. I think that continues here today with Hellickson on the mound who in 34 home starts before this year has a 2.84 ERA. He'll go against Jarrod Parker who had an awful spring and is parlaying that into an awful start with a 2.66 WHIP and an ERA over 10. I do think Parker will be okay, but he has a 4.54 ERA on the road and has just 3.05 K/9 and 6.17 BB/9 to start the year. That's not something you can turn around quickly and it won't likely be until he goes back to Oakland. TB has 38 AB vs. Parker and a .864 OPS and I think they will continue to rake today. I think we are getting great value on the Rays here because Oakland has been so hot, but that's about to flip as they lose their second game in a row.

It has been a really rough start to the season for me with a lot of 1 run losses and bullpen failures, but that will correct itself over the long haul so please stick with me! The Phillies were the culprits last night in the 9th with 1st and 3rd and 0 outs they were unable to get 1 run home to push the game to extra innings.

Jays -117 4* MLB POD
I like the Blue Jays tonight even though they face the always dependable Andy Pettitte. Pettitte has not pitched since the 9th due to back spasms and the Blue Jays just got to face lefties in back to back games which should help them in this one. They will send 7 of their 9 hitters to the plate as a right handed pitcher. Pettitte as we know is not nearly as effective vs. righties. He has a 4.40 xFIP on the road vs. RH ers and Bautista and Davis in particular have made him pay as they are a combined 16-41 with 3 HR. I think the Jays will get their runs early in this one.

On the flip side Brandon Morrow has been fantastic vs. the Yankees at home allowing just 1 ER in his last 3 home starts over 21.2 IP. He will of course face a different Yankees line up but still has held them to a .235 average against him. Jays are 5-2 vs. the Yankees in Morrows last 7 starts and 18-6 in his last 24 overall on 4 days rest so he should put a quality start out there. The Blue Jays also have a considerable advantage in the bullpen so I'm confident they should build on yesterday's win.

Astros -110 1st 5 Innings 2.2* Play; Astros +109 1* game
Astros will send Lucas Harrell to the mound tonight on 5 days rest. He's got a 3.02 ERA in his last 7 home starts on 5 days rest including a 7 inning 1 ER performance vs. the Indians last year. He's been very solid at home overall, but those stats on 5 days rest could be even better if he didn't have to face the best NL offense in the Cardinals in 3 of those starts. Facing the Indians who are 23rd in OPS vs RHP should be much easier as they are only hitting .223 with 3.06 R/9 vs. RHP on the season. I think the day off and the extra rest for the Astros starting pitcher will help them and their bullpen.

Houston on the other hand has hit righties well .300 with 6.52 runs per 9 over their last 10 games combined. Bretty Myers is coming in on 4 days rest in this game and has not pitched well. His speed on his fast ball is down 3.2 mph on average as well as his other pitches across the board. It's led to him giving up 8 HR already on the season. I think we are getting value with Harrell because of his overall ERA, but it's a bit misleading because of his awful start vs. Oakland who is the hottest team in baseball. Take a look at his last 24 games at home and he posts a 2.97 ERA which is very much under the radar. The Indians are a bit banged up and have a .182 average over their last 5 vs. RHP.

[b]Phillies +109 4* MLB POD[/b]
Call me crazy, but I see all the value on Cole Hamels and the Phillies despite just getting swept. They return home and they face Adam Wainwright who is coming into this game in a rough spot this early in the season. He just pitched 115 pitches in a complete game shut out and he's only on 4 days rest. I think he'll struggle here because of his last effort. Meanwhile Cole Hamels is about to heat up. Hamels faces a Cardinal line up that has struggled vs. lefties hitting .174 this year on the road while the Phillies are hitting .298 vs. RHP at home while scoring 7.14 runs per 9. Philly will have a ton of lefties in the line up and I don't anticipate that Wainwright will be able to go super deep into the game this early in the season after his last outing. I expect 7 innings to be the max which will turn this game over to the bullpen which the Cardinals have struggled with a 6.08 ERA on the year mainly due to depth because of injuries. I think the Phillies are happy to be home and will improve on their 7-3 record vs. the Cardinals when Hamels pitches.

Giants -125 2.5* Early Bird Special
I don't think the Giants get swept here with their ace ont he mound. Cain has struggled against hte Brewers before, but this Brewers line up as we discussed in our POD yesterday is not the same with the injuries. Ryan Braun is also in a slump right now while Rickie Weeks has not succeeded in the clean up spot with just 2 hits over their last 8 games. Cain was 7-0 with a 2.88 ERA during day games last year. Gallardo on the other hand 4.13 ERA over the last 3 years during the day has not had a good start to this year and has a 5.23 ERA in April over the last 3 years. Gallardo has been dealing with issues and just got arrested for DUI the other day so you can tell his mind is not where it should be. He's pitched well vs. the Giants, but until last year the Giants always had a meager line up so it's no surprise that he pitched well. Posey, Belt, and Pagan are 9-21 vs. Gallardo. The Giants have a lot of grit and should avoid the sweep here today.

Giants +107 3.5* MLB POD
I think we are getting excellent value here with the Giants. Ryan Vogelsong is due for a quality start after his awful start and facing the Brewers is just what he needs as the Brewers have hit just .150 and scored just 1.63 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Their cleanup hitter is Rickie Weeks who is 2-30 in his last 7 games combined. The Giants meanwhile have hit righties well all year and that

4* MLB POD Orioles -125
As bad as Jake Arieta has looked Roberto Hernadez has also looked just as bad. The Orioles at this price are a bargain considering they have the better line up and the better bullpen. ON the year their bullpen has a 2.25 ERA and at home they have a 0ERA compared with the Rays 5.28 overall bullpen ERA which they will absolutely need here today. Roberto Hernandez has yet to prove he can go past the 6th inning in a major league start. The Rays are also hitting .193 vs. RHP and Arieta has been mostly unlucky if anytinhg after posting a 6.20 ERA a year ago as he had a 3.65 xFIP. I see Arieta turning it around here tonight against a Rays team that's really struggling to hit the ball and is hitting even worse ont eh road .139 with a 1.24 runs per 9.

Phillies -146 5* MLB POD
Are the Marlins a MLB team? You could have fooled me and they'll be sending their soon to be ace to the mound on Saturday night in Jose Fernandez who has electrifying stuff. However, he's young and they will not stretch him and the Phillies veteran line up know this. Expect the Phillies to make him work so they can get into that bullpen which posts a 6.07 ERA this year. I don't expect Fernandez to pitch more than 5 innings again. The Phillies have had a lot of success vs. RHP this year scoring 5.75 runs per 9. Miami on the other hand has a .138 average and is scoring 0.73 runs per 9 at home this year. They'll go up against Cole Hamels who should be a bit angry after his two first starts.

Hamels has never had 3 games in a row with 4 ER or more in his entire career. He's had just 1 2 game stretch of 4 ER or more in back to back games not counting his first two starts this year over the last 3 years. I fully expect him to bounce back today against the Marlins who he has 2.42 ERA in his last 12 starts. He pitched well in the Marlins new park with a 1.57 ERA over 3 starts last year and should be motivated going up against Fernandez. He also won't have to face Stanton who is doubtful and MOrrison and Kotchman who have also had success against him are also out of the line up. Hamels had a 0.95 ERA in the spring and all of his pitches are at his normal speeds so all signs point to him just being a bit off his game. I expect him to fully dominate here on Saturday night. Phillies are 17-5 in his last 22 road starts as a favorite -110 to -150 while the Marlins are 6-21 in their last 27 vs. a LH starter. We are getting great value at this price.

Cardinals -135 4* MLB POD
Kyle Lohse was dominant for the Cardinals last year, but I feel this year will be quite different for the flyball pitcher. He faces his old team this year and if you forgotten how much Beltran owned him you'll remember tonight. IN fact Beltran, Molina and Holliday are 29-52 with 4 HR combined and all of them carry an OPS over .900. That will make it very difficult to pitch around tonight especially with the winds blowing out and the fact that Lohse is backed by the leagues worst bullpen.

The Cardinals send their young arm to the mound in Shelby Miller who we have seen glimpses of his domination. He's a hard thrower with a nice curve ball and I expect Milwaukee to be behind early since they have not seen him before. Milwaukee is still without two of their better hitters in Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez which won't help. Milwaukee was 24th in BB's on the road which won't help them get on base against Miller whose greatest weakness as a young pitcher is control. I expect him to bounce back at home and dominate tonight. The Cardinals are also 19-9 in their last 28 meetings with the Brewers.

Angels -124 3* MLB POD
We were robbed last night with the Red Sox blown save and 2 errors, but we look to rebound today with just 8 games on the board. There is just one play I like and it is the Angels. They've gotten beat up here the last few days and now I see value in their line so I'm jumping back on them. The issue has been their pitching not their hitting as they have a .360 average and are scoring over 5 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home. Jason Vargas will take the mound and they are hoping he can provide some veteran leadership.

Vargas has outstanding numbers against the A's with a 2.01 ERA over his last 7 starts while the line up has just a .665 OPS in 148 combined AB collectively. Vargas has also been great at Angels Stadium in the past as a member of the Mariners posting a 1.82 ERA in his last 5 stops. He faces off against the young A.J. Griffin who has a 3.06 ERA in 16 career starts in the majors. He posted great numbers on the road last year through 7 starts with a 2.90 ERA, but teams started to pick up on him down the stretch as in his last 2 road starts he gave up 9 ER in 9 combined innings while giving up 15 hits and 4 HR to the Yankees and Tigers. The Angels have that type of line up and Albert Pujols is heating up. I'm selling stock on Griffin right now as he was lucky last year with a .264 BABIP with a 81.3 LOB %. His xFIP was 4.02.

Red Sox

Cubs -111 MLB POD 4* MLB POD
I see good value with Travis Wood on the mound against a very young and raw starting pitcher in Peralta. Wood in 6 career starts vs. the Brewers holds a 3.52 ERA while the Brewers have 101 AB and a .198, .627 OPS vs. Wood. They are also off to a rough start vs. LHP with just 2.91 R/9 and that's mainly because they are without the services of Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez who are on the DL. Wood was 1 of 2 pitchers last year with a WHIP at 1.20 or less with an ERA over 4.00 and 150+ IP. I think there is value to be had with Wood, who is a fly ball pitcher early in the season when it's cold and the ball is not quite carrying like it normally does at Wrigley. With it being in the 40's today in Chicago I don't expect him to give up the long ball thus pitching a quality game.

Milwaukee on the other hand will lean on Wily Peralta who is a young power pitcher with control issues 4.79 BB/9 in AAA last year. Look for the Cubs to be more patient and get on base. These type of pitchers typically struggle on the road.

Diamondbacks -143 (1.5* FREE PLAY)
Diamondbacks have been on fire to start the season and I see no reason why that should stop against the Pirates who are hitting .139 vs. RHP to start the season. Trevor Cahill is backed by one of the best bullpens this year in my opinion and the Pirates were 25th in OPS vs RHP while the Diamondbacks were 8th in OPS vs. LHP. Pirates hitters have just 37 AB with only 6 hits against Cahill in their career while the Diamondbacks have hit Wandy Rodriguez hard with a .800 OPS in 72 AB. He has 3 starts with a 5.17 ERA over the last 3 years against the Diamondbacks and traditionally he has not been a great pitcher on the road.

Cardinals -110 (5.5* MLB POD)
I like the Cards here today with 2011 World Series MVP coming back to a line up that already is averaging 6.36 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They'll face Mat Latos here today who has not pitched well agaisnt the Cardinals particularly in St. Louis. In 4 starts in St. Louis he has a 2.44 WHIP with a 13.50 ERA. Molina, Jay, Freese and Beltran are 23-52 with 4 HR against him. The team collectively has 110 AB with a .345 average and a .955 OPS vs. Latos. Latos also struggles in his April starts posting a 5.73 ERA over his last 13 April starts. He did not have a good spring posting a 5.49 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. The Cardinals were also #3 in OPS during day games where they went 33-24 last year.

Cardinals will send Jaime Garcia to the mound who has a 2.09 ERA in his last 6 home starts vs. the Reds. The Reds have 145 at bats collectively agaisnt Garcia with only 2 HR and .608 OPS. He has a 2.03 ERA in his last 14 April starts, 2.33 ERA in his last 38 home starts and a 3.19 ERA in his last 22 day starts. He's a GB picher and only allows 7.2 HR/FB. I expect the Cardinals to take game 1 ast heya re 50-23 in their last 73 home games vs. the Reds.