25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Buffalo Bills set to start at 8:20 PM ET, Thursday, November 15, 2012 The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game. There will be no need to bring pressure on Tannehill given that both of Buffalo

25* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that KC will lose this game by 10 or fewer points in this Monday Night Football matchup. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-9 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2006 and has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Play ON road teams off a road loss, with the game taking place n November games. This system clearly reflects the parity and ebb and flow of the NFL. Any team can look like contenders and then fall flat to teams that public sentiment showed they should defeat soundly. Case in point SF 49ers and Giants just yesterday. 19 of the winning plays covered the spread bny seven or more points, so this underscores the sim projections calling for this to be a single digit game. Placing an optional 3* amount using the money line is highly recommended as well - just in case lightning does strike. KC is off a 31-13 beating at San Diego failing to cover as seven point dogs. Their last three games have been struggles to say the least, BUT it has also caused the betting line to become far too high for this contest. KC is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more since 1992; 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. Steelers are just 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992. One of the biggest problems for KC has been the lack of gap integroty on defense. Pittsburgh will have a heavy dose of running plays knowing that KLC will be expecting them. I believe that KC can contain this rushing attack and then force Roethlisberger to make plays through the air. In other words, Steeler offense will be put into having to produce multi-play time consuming drives that will result in more FG than TD. This gives KC the ability to use their powerful running game and gain an advantage in TOP shortening the game to the fourth quarter. Take Kansas City.

25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Denver Broncos set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and have an excellent shot at getting a much needed home win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 63-30 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2006. Play against favorites after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games with the current game taking place in November. Here is a second system that has gone 58-27 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites that are excellent offensive teams averaging >=370 YPG and now facing a poor defense allowing between 335 to 370 YPG and after 8 or more regular season games have been played. Cam Newton is going to have a big game today and the sim shows that they will score between 22 and 28 points. In past games when they have scored within this range of points, the Panthers are 2-0 ATS this season, 8-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 53-13 ATS since 1992. The Denver offense has caught fire scoring better than 30 points in three straight games. Yet, Denver is just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. The Carolina offensive line has finally come together and their Week 9 game was by far their best performance as a unit. I strongly believe that they will be able to control the Denver defensive front and protect Newton well allowing him time to go through progressions and hit the correct target in stride. I really how LT Jordan Gross has improved in recent weeks and he will handle the all-important left side and Newton

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Colts in NFL Thursday Night action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by three or fewer points and I believe they will win the game. Let

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Atlanta Falcons set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by three or fewer points and I completely believe that they will win the game. Consider an optional alternative bet, placing an 19* unit play on the line and a 6* play on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 ATS for 80% ATS winners since 2006. Play against home teams after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games with the game taking place in November. HC Garrett is a solid 10-4 against the money line (+9.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Dallas and a near-perfect 6-1 against the money line (+8.8 Units) in November games. The biggest Dallas problem has been what i call unforced penalties. There are holding penalties that are many times good ones that keep the QB upright and uninjured, but then there are the mental false starts and dead ball fouls. Dallas is a very good team when they clean up their mental mistakes and I believe Garrett will have his team ready to win tonight in a near must-win situation. Dallas has twice as many penalties on the season than the Falcons, but that will be a much different story line tonight. Even though Murray will not be playing for Dallas, the ground attack should be running on all cylinders tonight. The Falcons run defense ranks second-to-last in the NFL allowing more than five yards per carry. Moreover, Atlanta could be without their best defensive player in Weatherspoon making the ground attack scheme even more difficult for the Falcons to stop. Dallas will control the tempo and chew up big chunks of clock. The bigger the margin advantage they have in TOP, the bigger the margin of victory for the Cowboys.

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Detroit set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by four or fewer points and have an excellent shot at winning this game. Detroit

25* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs set to start at 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, November 1. The simulator shows a high probability that SD will win this game by 10 or more points. This is about the time of the regular season, where head coach Norv Turner is on the hot seat and fans are calling for his head. It is also the time, that SD has had a tradition of responding with solid winning streaks. They have the right opponent tonight in Kansas City, the worst team in the AFC and perhaps the NFL to get the winning ways started up. Many of you know, I like looking at the Yards-per-point ratios for NFL and College teams. These offensive and defensive ratios provide a solid measuring tool that reveals how well an offensive or defensive unit is playing. On the offensive end, a team wants as a low a number as possible that reflects a high efficiency offensive unit. On the defensive end the goal is to attain a higher number forcing opponent to gain more yards to get an average of one point on the scoreboard. SD ranks 13th in the NFL posting a 14.6 offensive yards per point ratio. Teams that post offensive YPP ratios beleen 14 are exception offensive units. Houston ranks best posting a 12.0 YPP ratio by way of comparison. KC is dead last in the NFL ranking 32nd and posting an anemic 21.4 YPP ratio. Numbers that range between 14 and 18 are considered average units while numbers above 18 are sputter and largely inconsistent units. So, you can see that SD has a big and meaningful advantage on offense. Further, looking at the defensive YPP ratios shows that KC, again, ranks dead last posting an 11.7 YPP ratio. SD ranks 14th in the NFL posting a decent 15.9 defensive YPP ratio. I strongly believe that this clearly reveals how much better SD is than KC. Adding to this is the Chargers recent slide, but as you can see, SD is borderline on both offense and defense to reaching the elite level for these respective ratios. I fully expect this game to be won by 20 or more points by the Chargers.

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Green Bay set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-14 ATS for 75% winners since 2006. Play on home favorites that are a marginal winning team posting a 51% to 60% win percentage and now playing a losing team. Here is a second system that has gone 165-101 ATS since 2002. Play on road underdogs or pick off a road loss. JAX is off a tough fought 26-23 loss at Oakland, but covered as six point dogs. Jordy Nelson is banged up nursing a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable for this game. Green Bay may not even play him knowing that all they need to do is win the game and that there are far greater and more important games for Nelson to be healthy for. Jacksonville is not without their injuries as well. They will not have Maurice Jones-Drew for this game and is the dominant reason that this line has been inflated to where it is right now. However, Gabbert is upgraded and will play. Rodgers is dinged as well and I strongly believe the offensive scheme will be to keep him upright and away from harms way. This already limits the offensive attack for the Packers and they will play a

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than four points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 70-36 ATS for 66% since 2006. Play on road underdogs or pick with a struggling scoring defense allowing 27 or more points/game. I strongly believe that the Steelers, who are just 3-3 on the season, will elect to attack the Redskin secondary and essentially make themselves a one-dimensional attack. This works into the strengths of the Redskins. Moreover, the sim shows that the Steelers will throw for more than 300 net passing yards. In past games where they have gone over this passing benchmark, they are just 9-28 ATS since 1992 and 0-2 ATS already this season. The steelers are banged up significantly on the defensive side of the ball. They did dominate the Bengals in Week 7, but it was in large part because the Bengals became too predictable. The Redskins offensive scheme is anything, but predictable and OC Shanahan will have a complete arsenal of plays including an array of read-option types for RG3. Although a rookie, he has matured into a game winning type of quarterback as evident by his 4th quarter scoring drive last week against the Giants. He has gained the trust and respect of his teammates and it is making the entire team play better football each week. Griffin has been extremely accurate as he leads the league with a 70.4 completion percentage. He is a natural playmaker out of the pocket with speed and quickness to move the chains. RG3 is a dynamic athlete who challenges defensive coordinators to make subtle changes when game-planning for the Redskins. Steelers love to bring pressure, but in this matchup with a very elusive quarterback, they cannot play that type of game. If they bring pressure, and don

30* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they host the Tampa Bay Bucs set to start at 8:30 PM ET on Thursday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will win this game by nine or more points. Sim shows that the Vikings will have a minimum of 125 rushing yards in this game. When they have achieved this level of success in past games, they are 2-0 ATS this season and 10-4 ATS the past three seasons and 61-31 ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-12 ATS for 75% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick with a poor defense allowing 5.4 or more yards per play and after gaining 450 or more total yards per game over their last two games. 24 of the winning plays based on this system have covered the spread by seven or more points. Peterson is running ball ay a very high level and rarely is being stopped on first contact. His leverage at point of attack is perfection in motion and even the best linebackers in the league have difficulty getting good tackling angles on him. The majority of his yards gained in last week

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take to the road to the

25* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they take on the Oakland Raiders set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by six or fewer points. Since the change to the current NFL divisional format in 2002, there have been no more than seven teams with 3-3 records through six weeks of play. For nearly two decades the NFl commissioner

15* graded play on Indianapolis as they take on the Cleveland Browns set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Indy will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are off an upset win by 10 or more as a home dog after the first month (four weeks) of the season. This system has not lost since 2007 posting a perfect 6-0 ATS mark and is 14-2 ATS over the past 10 seasons. Colts were gashed for 161 rushing yards by Shonn Greene in Week 6 and you can bet the Browns, who are already run dependent will have Richardson involved with many plays. Problem is he has bruised ribs and believe it only takes one glancing shot to have him in significant pain and possibly out of the game. I am not saying the Colts defense will target that area. On any hit, even a routine tackle in the leg area and radiate up to the rubs. Colts DC, Manusky, will have a safety at the LOS from the first play of the game and will bring gap pressure from the strong side of the of the Browns offensive formation. This reduces the areas to which Richardson or any running back can maneuver. Take the Colts.

15* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Green Bay Packers set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by four or fewer points and have an excellent shot at upending the Packers today. St. Louis is one of eleven teams at 3-3 in the 32-team NFL and have covered five of six of their games. The eleven teams marks a record for NFL parity dating back to the current divisional format. St. Louis is a team that with a few breaks going their way can continue to contend as a wildcard type of team deep into the remainder of the season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-7 ATS for 81% winners since 2002. It is also 2-0 ATS this season, 11-2 ATS over the past three seasons, and 17-3 ATS over the past five seasons. The Packers had a huge win last week against Houston, but they are banged up on both sides of the ball. Rogers is dinged, but will play. WR Jennings is OUT with a severe groin injury. Moreover, their defensive front is really hurting and the Rams have a strong power running game led by Jackson and rookie Daryl Richardson. Strong running game allows the Rams to chew up the clock and keep the ball from the Packers. It also sets up excellent high percentage pass plays off play action and in man coverage situations. Take the Rams.

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks set to start at 8:20 PM ET. It is incredible to note that the parity in the NFl has reached new levels of equilibrium never before seen in any NFL season prior. Since the NFL moved to it

25* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Denver Broncos in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SD will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-6 ATS for 80% winners since 2006. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game and after a loss by 10 or more points. This system has gone 16-3 ATS over the past three seasons. San Diego has adjusted their once-vertical pass routes and have gone to a more underneath passing scheme. They also now have running back Ryan Mathews back and he is also a threat out of the backfield. Defenses have taken away the deep seem routes that Rivers had been throwing the past several seasons. In a sure sign of maturity and leadership he is now focused on executing passes underneath zone coverages - what the defense is giving and it is working very well. The sim shows a high probability that SD will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, where they have achieved this level of rushing excellence they are 6-0 ATS the past three seasons and 31-9 ATS since 1992. Take the Chargers.

30* graded play UNDER Houston-Green Bay set to start at 8:20 PM ET on Sunday Night Football. I also have a 15* play on Houston so consider making a 10* parlay with Houston and the UNDER. I do not like teasers at all, but for those, who do, the combination of teasing Houston to a dog status and adding points to the total is very attractive. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 44 points will be scored in this game. Simply, both teams must shorten the game and keep the opponents

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by seven or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-19 ATS for 69% winners since 2006. Play on road underdogs or pick with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game on the season. Turnovers and differential tend to even out over the course of an NFL season. This system implies that Oakland will force more than 1 turnover and the sim shows a high probability that they will get 2 or more forced turnovers recorded in this game. In past games, Oakland is 8-2 ATS when they have had two forced turnovers spanning the past three seasons. Oakland will be able to run the ball against a highly suspect Falcons defensive unit. The Falcons rank 31st allowing 5.4 rushing yards per game and 28th allowing 142.8 rushing yards per game. Moreover, they rank 28th allowing an average of 8.2 rushing first downs per game. This fact, alone shows that the Raiders running game will be able to move the chains and sustain drives and eat of the clock to shorten the game. I realize that the Raiders have not been strong running the ball to date, but against this Flacons unit I expect them to have a huge day. With a strong running game Carson Palmer, who has great field vision when given time, can execute high percentage pass routes over the middle of the field in man coverage. Falcons will use seven and eight men in the box, so pass plays

15* graded play on the Jets as they take on the Houston Texans set to start at 8:30 PM ET on monday night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will show up and at least cover the game. Honestly, I have been struggling with this release all day and is one of the main reasons I have released late afternoon. You never know what else could come out Jets headquarters that is negative. However, there are some very strong reasons to back them tonight and if I emphasize one thing it is to follow discipline with my plays as they are represented by the neural net simulator. It has worked for 18-years and this is just one play and one play win or lose does not have a dramatic impact on the success of the season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 76-36 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick is an average offensive team scoring between 18 to 23 PPG and is facing an excellent offensive team scoring >=27 PPG and after scoring 14 points or less last game. Fine tuning this a tad to reflect these teams getting blown out by 14 or more points produces a strong 33-10 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1983. The interesting thing about head coaches in the NFl is they tend to play a bit more conservatively when on the road against a vastly inferior opponent. Kubiak is just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more PPG. Jets have been resilient when playing at home off a home loss posting a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games off a home loss since 1992. After the butt kicking beat down they took last week to the 49ers, Rex Ryan and his team MUST play well in the national limelight and not have any sideline antics. If they do, they will be the laughing stock of the NFL for the remainder of the season. The sim projections and grading is what truly matters and my opinions matter far less. It all adds up to what many will be saying tomorrow is a huge upset win for the Jets. I would suggest splitting the wager into two parts with the first a 10* getting the points and the second a 5* graded play using the Money Line.

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Chicago Bears set to start at 8:35 PM ET on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that Chicago will win this game by five or more points. Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte was listed as probable, but has been since downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury. The consequences of Forte not being in the Bears lineup will certainly make them a one dimensional passing offense and that is certainly not their strength. Even if he plays it will not reduce the strength or validity of this play. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-5 for 86% winners since 1983. Play on home teams that are good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt and after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. Bears are just 4-16 ATS facing good passing defenses allowing 175 or less passing yards per game since 1992. The Dallas secondary is banged up with several key injuries forcing defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to make some changes. One of the best moves has been placing cornerback Brandon Carr to safety. He then placed Mike Jenkins and rookie Morris Claiborne at the corner positions. This has developed a triangular defensive scheme where the secondary has three excellent man-coverage men on the field for all plays. Dallas is very aggressive along the defensive front in their 3-4 scheme. They rarely ever show a 4-3 look on third down passing situations and like to bring pressure from the perimeter with their elite linebackers. Bears quarterback Cutler likes to attack the perimeter of the field with his physical wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. However, this plays into the strengths of the reformed Dallas defense as Carr has the spped and quickness to roll his coverage and will take out the vertical routes of the Bears passing game. Further, it will force Cutler to hold the ball and go through an additional progression where the Dallas rush will have the time to get to him and record sacks. I strongly believe that Dallas could have as many as five coverage sacks on Cutler in this game. Take Dallas.

25* graded play on the New York Giants as they take on Philadelphia in the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday Night Football. The fans will be lathered up for this one and unfortunately they will be leaving the Lincoln Financial Field with great disappointment and perhaps a new quarterback under center. The simulator shows a high probability that the Giants will win this game. Philadelphia ranks dead last in the NFL by a wide margin with a 26.0 yards-per-point ratio. This simply means that they are highly dysfunctional on offense and require far too many yards to equal a single point on the scoreboard. It also reflects the fact that Vick has made too many mistakes leading to turnovers and missed scoring opportunities. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-7 ATS for 81% winners since 2006. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off 1 or more consecutive unders and with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game. Fine tuning this system to include just home teams produces a remarkable 22-3 ATS mark for 88% winners since 2006. Giants are a solid 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams averaging >=350 yards/game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 season; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a win by 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Ried is just 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Take the Giants

25* graded play on Carolina as they take on the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by fewer than six points and has a great shot an upset win. Consider creating a combination bet placing an 11* amount getting the points and a 4* amount on the money line. Falcons are out of the gate and posting some impressive numbers with a 3-0 record SU and ATS. However, they are just 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half since 1992. The sim shows that Cam Newton will have a solid day and that the Panthers will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. In past games where they have scored 22 to 28 points they have posted a 6-1 ATS mark the past three seasons and 51-13 ATS mark since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 22-4 ATS for 85% winners since 1983. Play against home teams , who are opportunistic teams getting 2.5+ turnover differential and now facing a team with <=1.25 turnover ratio per game forced and after a game where they forced four or more turnovers. Take the Carolina Panthers.

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Minnesota Vikings set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will win this game by 10 or more points. The sim also shows that Detroit

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they host the Green Bay Packers set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will lose this game and have an excellent opportunity to win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-7 for 82% winners since 1983 making 35.1 units per one unit wagered. Play on home teams using the money line after one or more consecutive wins against the spread when playing on Monday night. This system has also gone an incredible 15-3 using the money line over the past three seasons. I also like using yards-per-point ratios as a way to grade teams efficiency and effectiveness on both offense and defense. A offense ratio that ranges between 10 and 13 shows a measure of offensive excellence. Simplistically, it shows that it only take 10 to 13 yards of offensive production to get one point on the scoreboard. Teams that post a 15 an higher showing an ability to execute scoring drives and to execute in the red zone. It can also indirectly reflect a team that has an above average amount of turnovers too. Defensively, it is the direct opposite. Teams with numbers above 17 are some of the best defenses in the league and teams sporting a measure of 13 or less are being gouged by opponents. In the case of this matchup, Seattle has the better offense and the better defense and are home dogs to boot. Seattle ranks third best in defensive yards per point posting a 20.3 ratio. By comparison, Green Bay ranks 21st in the NFL posting a 13.6 defensive yards per point ratio. Seattle ranks ninth in the NFL posting a 13.2 yards per point ratio while Green Bay has posted a 14.3 ratio good for 18th ranking in the NFL. Taking this one step further and looking at the yards-per-point differential between a team

30* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they take on the Indianapolis Colts set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 23-5 for 82% winners since 2002. PLay on road dogs or pick in a conference matchup that were poor teams from last season posting a win percentage between 25% to 40% and now playing a team that had a losing record last year. This system has gone 6-0 ATS the past three season and 9-1 ATS over the past five seasons. JAX quarterback will be playing and has recovered from a gluteous injury. The biggest factor in this game is that in order for the Colts to win this game they will have to establish the running game. I don

25* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 8:30 PM ET on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will lose this game by three or fewer points and has a great shot at winning a big road game and establishing themselves as a contender in the AFC West. Both teams had solid outings in Week 1. However, Atlanta is not in a good spot for a continuation of that success. They are just 13-32 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-12 for 71% winners and has made 18 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on home teams with a money line of +130 to -150 after gaining 7 or more passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 8 or more passing yards per attempt last game. Here is a second system that has gone 49-15 since 2006. Play against all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 after a win by 10 or more points and is now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. Head Coach Smith is just 2-9 against the money line (-8.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 as the coach of the

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by 10 or more points. Detroit

25* graded play on Carolina as they take on the New Orleans Saints set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Panthers will win this game. The simulation for this game shows a very high probability that Cam Newton will have a huge day and the Panther offense will score more than 28 points. In past games, the Panthers are a rock solid 5-1 ATS over the past three seasons and an incredible 54-5 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points in a game. The ground game will be successful too and I expect them to gain 125 or more rushing yards. This in turn sets up play action pass plays for Newton where he will be able to have high percentage opportunities to exploit the Saints suspect cover-2 defense. In past games where the Panthers have rushed the ball for more than 125 yards, they have posted a 9-3 ATS record over the past three seasons and 46-14 ATS record since 1992. Panthers struggled with the running game last week against a solid Bucs defensive front. So, I strongly believe they will be squarely focused on establishing the LOS and getting the running game off to a solid start. Panthers are 19-8 ATS after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 23-4 for 85% winners and has made 19 units per one unit wagered since 1983. Play against road teams using the money line that have a poor passing defense from last season that allowed 230 or more passing yards/game and after allowing 8 or more passing yards per attempt in their last game. Take Carolina.

15* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Ravens will win this game. The Ravens, even without Suggs, have the personnel to pressure Vick throughout his game. They have the speed and discipline to cut him off on the perimeter. For the Eagles to win, they must get LeSean McCoy involved in the game in a major way by running the ball between the tackles and catching

15* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Detroit Lions set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by fewer than eight points and also have a solid shot at what would be shocking upset to most fans. I expect the Rams running game to be in full force in this matchup. The sim shows a high probability that the Rams will average between 4.0 and 4.5 yards per rush in this game. In past games, Detroit is just 19-47 against the money line, losing 43.3 units when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992. The Rams Steven Jackson is a punishing type of power running back and Detroit struggled big last year against similar style attacks. Detroit allowed 5.0 yards per rush and 128 rushing yards per game in 2011. You can bet that OC Shottenheimer will have a steady course of Jackson with different formations and looks pre-snap. With the Lions QB Stafford having a huge 2001 breakout season, his counterpart, Bradford, has the football IQ, arm strength and accuracy to keep a defensive secondary on their heels. This is where I see the game being so much closer than the line indicates. Bradford is not a bad QB. he has had a suspect OL, but one that is much better than in his pro career. He is very adept at using play action and making the correct progressions to find the open receiver. With Jackson the featured offensive weapon and with the Lions playing eight men in the box, Bradford will have time to discect the defense and move the chains. Last, but not least, The Rams new coach, Fisher, is outstanding as an underdog coach sporting a 75-50-1 ATS record and he has won 45% of these games in straight up fashion. Take the Rams.

15* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles set to start 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 9, 2012. This is just too many points to be giving any team in Week 1, especially an Eagles defense that is masking huge problems in their linebacker corp.

Nine rookies are on the Eagles roster with Defensive Tackle and first round draft pick Fletcher Cox expected to play significant minutes, if not start against Cleveland. Yet, looking at their roster, additional moves may be possible given the unbalanced nature of the offense and defensive composition of players. Two undrafted free agents made the roster in Running back Chris Polk and wide receiver Damaris Johnson. Despite the veteran leadership on the team, there are 24 players with two or fewer years of NFL experience.

The Eagles are very light in terms of depth and talent on the offensive line and chose to keep an abundance of cornerbacks and running backs. Moves to acquire offensive lineman cur from other teams may be in the works to balance out the roster and add much needed depth along the offensive line. Currently, they have one offensive center and one fullback on the roster.

Michael Vick, as we know, does not need a great offensive line to be a significant playmaker on the field. He does, however, need an offensive line that can protect him that extra

15* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Houston Texans set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Miami rookie QB Ryan Tannehill will make his debut in the NFL and I do expect it to be a huge success. The Texans will be working into their second year under DC Wade Phillips

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the NY Giants set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than four points and have an excellent shot at upsetting the defending Super Bowl Champions on their home turf. The Giants run the ball mainly between the tackles and then use play action to exploit overly aggressive defensive ends, who get out of position. However, Dallas some very good and athletic defensive ends, who have strong football IQ