10* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they host the Baltimore Ravens in MNF action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will win this game by 9 or more points. It is painfully obvious the ramifications for the loser of this game tonight. With Miami defeating the Patriots, the AFC playoff picture has been clouded even more and the losses by the Cowboys and Eagles combined with the unreal win over Dallas by the Packers has made the NFC North extremely uncertain. Both teams can control their own destiny by winning out, but in this season of inconsistent play, it is very unlikely that either team can win out. What truly matters is tonight's game and Detroit can take a major step forward with a win. In fact, with Chicago and the Packers (Rogers will most assuredly play), the Lions also take a huge step backward with a loss. Ok, enough of the scenarios and let's take a look at a few of the matchups I see leading Detroit to a win. The Lions OL has done a great job this season protecting fifth-year starter Stafford. There are 29 QB, who have been sacked more than him and only Peyton manning has been sacked less. Stafforfd ash improved immensely with his release time and that ahs also contributed to the sound protection. Of the entire group of players on the OL including TE, none have graded below -10 for the season. Riley Reiff has allowed five sacks, but that is over 550 pass block situations on the season. So, I don't see Baltimore being able to get pressure on Stafford and he will be getting the ball out quickly once again. Making matters far worse for the Ravens defense is limiting Calvin Johnson, who leads all receivers with 12 TD and is second with 1348 yards. Ravens will use a mix of Webb, Smith, and Graham in defending Johnson. Graham normally lines up on the left side and this is the matchup Stafford will look to get for Johnson. Graham is a gambling defender that has allowed 7 TD, but has gotten 3 INT. The worst possible defender against Johnson is a gambler, because Johnson has superior speed, size, and uses his body perfectly in shielding a defender from the ball. Many teams have attempted a bracket zone against Johnson and that has failed miserably. This tactic gives Johnson the opportunity to catch short passes and in the add significant yards after the catch because he is so hard to bring down in space. Detroit is a solid 25-6 ATS (+18.4 Units) after gaining 4 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after being outgained by 200 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Take the Lions.

10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they host the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that they will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at upsetting the Saints. I like making this play using a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 3* amount using the money line for a total of 11* amount wagered. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-9 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2002. Play against favorites (NEW ORLEANS) after a win by 14 or more points and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Here is an exceptional money line system that has hit 60% winners for a 25-17 mark and has averaged a +190 Dog Play since 2008. Play against favorites using the money line (NEW ORLEANS) off 2 or more consecutive unders and is an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and is facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG. Rams DE Robert Quinn grades as the best one in the NFL in pass rush. He has an extremely quick first step and gets leverage underneath slower tackles. He also makes it impossible for any tackle to anticipate what direction his path to the QB will originate from pre-snap. Brees is excellent at reading the field and extending plays, however Quinn will force him to throw to his first read. The Saints OL is going to have a tough day giving Brees enough time to get plays made, to keep him being pressured, and to keep him upright. Take the Rams.

10* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the KC Chiefs in AFC West action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than four points and have a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2002. This system has gone 10-1 ATS over the past three years. I strongly believe the Raider defense will play very well and will hold KC to 21 or fewer points. In past games where the Raiders have held an opponent to 15 to 21 points, they are 3-0 ATS this season and 10-1 ATS over the past three seasons. Charles is a top-5 RB this season. The majority of his rushing yards have been off tackle where he has averaged 6.0 YPC off left tackle and 5.8 YPC off right tackle. The weakness on the Raiders defensive front is the interior and their biggest strengths are on the perimeter. I really like ho Raider QB McGloin has played. He has averaged just 2.65 seconds to pass release compared with a league worst by Pryor at 3.47 seconds. McGloin has been sacked on just 8% of snaps which ranks best among 40 qualifying QB. Take Oakland.

10* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. This is my Game of the Year in the NFC. It is another 10* grading, but there are fundamental matchups that I live a ton and given the success we have enjoyed again this season, adding a responsible amount is a solid strategy. This does not mean that you suddenly bet beyond your means or bet significantly more than the usual 10* amount. I will suggest playing this as a 15* amount, which is 1.5x your normal play. Here is another alternative way to make this play. The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and have a shot at winning the game as well. Given the favorable projections, I suggest playing this as a 12* play using the line and adding a 3* amount using the money line. Vikings are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. SIM projects that no matter, who the Vikings RB is for this game, the team will average between 4.5 and 5.0 rushing yards per attempt. In past games, when they have allowed this range of rushing yards, the Eagles are 0-6 ATS over the past three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?86-43 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2002. Play against road teams (PHILADELPHIA) after scoring 30 points or more in their last game and is now facing an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Here is a second system that has gone 37-13 ATS for 74^ winners since 1983. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) with a struggling first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 3 or less points. We all know what happened last week in the two snow storm games these teams played. Philadelphia needed 3 1/2 quarters to get their offense untracked in horrific conditions and the Vikings were part of an unreal ending in Baltimore losing by 3 points where the teams combined for 5 TD in the last 2 minutes of play on a truly frozen tundra. Chris Cook and rookie Xavier Rhodes have the abilities to cover well and force Foles into looking to the second and third reads. Foles has been excellent this season and is a dominant reason the Eagles lead the NFC East after a 1-3 start. However, he has had negative grades in his last two games and when forced to go through his progressions, he is making a lot more dangerous throws than in the beginning of their five-game win streak. Rhodes is allowing a reception every 10.3 snaps and allowing a quite strong 78.3 QB rating on passes thrown his way. Foles has averaged 3.08 seconds to release while previous QB Vick was taking 3.38 seconds. This quicker release is the major reason Foles has been so effective, but when forced to hold the ball longer than 3.08 seconds, his effectiveness declines sharply. McCoy is coming off a franchise record rushing day and leads the NFL in rushing. Containing McCoy will certainly take a total team effort, but there are many players on the Minnesota defense that will be able to keep the Eagle running game in check. Defensive tackle, Kevin Williams, has been disruptive and will to eat up blocks preventing the interior of the Eagles line from getting to second level blocks. This has the key to the Eagles' ground game success. Williams ranks 37th among defensive tackles run stop percentage, but Minnesota is even better as a defensive unit with him taking on blocks so the linebackers are free to make the stops on ball carriers. Gerhart will be the likely starter for the Vikings. In limited opportunities he has proven to be tough to take down this year. In his 49 touches he has forced 16 missed tackles, easily one of the best ratios in the league. This will set up play action for Matt Cassell, who has done a great job in the last two games. The Vikings have shown no signs of quitting despite losing the season. Take the Vikings.

10* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the San Diego Chargers in NFL Thursday Night action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by at least 13 points. SIM projects that Denver will amass a mini9mum of 450 offensive yards and score at least 28 points. In past games, Denver is 7-4 ATS this season, 20-5 ATS over the past 3 seasons, and 100-28 ATS since 1992 when scoring 28+ points. Denver is also 4-1 ATS this season and 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when gaining more than 450 offensive yards. SD is just 3-11 ATS over the past three seasons when allowing 28+ points. Moreover, SD is just 2-11 L3 seasons when allowing more than 8.0 net passing yards per attempt and in the same role, Denver is a stout 15-2 ATS. SD ranks 11th in scoring defense allowing 22.4 PPG, but they rank 28th allowing 383 YPG. They are dead last in the NFL allowing 6.3 yards-per-play, 31st allowing 4.8 yards-per-rush, and 31st allowing 79. passing yards per attempt. I strongly believe Denver will look to establish the run game first and then look to play action targeting D. Thomas on the perimeter, who will be in man coverage. The SD secondary is in a big-time mismatch at nearly every level and Thomas represents the most glaring. I just do not see Rivers and their offense being able to keep pace Denver on the scoreboard. Further, with Denver being able to run the ball more tonight than in previous games will allow them an even greater advantage in TOP. When you have the NFL top-rated offense combined with TOP edge, it is a mountain that no team can overcome. Take Denver.

10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on Chicago in a significant MNF showdown set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2007. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) that is a struggling rushing team averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game. SIM shows a projecting call for the Dallas offense to be in strong form tonight and that they will average 5.5 to 6.0 yards-per-play. In past games, the Bears are 0-4 ATS this season and 1-8 ATS the past three seasons when they have allowed between 5.5 and 6.0 yards-per-play. Bears are 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. They will be retiring Mike Ditka's jersey tonight and the fans will be fire up, but it is not near enough to offset the Bear's injuries. The Cowboys secondary has been a severe weakness at times this season. Brandon Carr has been the constant on this unit and has become a solid coverage defender. The Bears have two very strong targets in Marshall and Jeffery and the Cowboys secondary MUST and WILL be highly successful defending the vertical route. McCown will be under center for the Bears and has done a solid job backing up Cutler. I believe that Morris Claiborne is battling just too many injuries and may not play tonight. Dallas will use a myriad of coverage looks pre-snap to change up McCown's reads and will bate him to mistakes. The other facet of this game is that Romo and the offense will control the tempo of the game and will have a decided edge in TOP. Here is the most dominant matchup in this game. DeMarco Murray is Averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry tied for fourth-best in the league and has 25 forced-missed tackles (10th best). He will be called upon more than usual for two reasons; backup Dunbar's season-ending injury last week, and Chicago

10* graded play on the SF 49ers and a 10* play 'OVER' the [posted total in the big showdown with Seattle in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by 6 or more points and there will be a minimum of 45 points scored. Given this favorable projection, I will suggest playing an extra 3* parlay with the 49ers and the 'over' DO NOT play teasers of any kind, especially the three-team 10 point varieties. It may seem a gift to get these lines using the teaser formats, but TRUST me, they are not and are nothing but money burners over the course of a season. HC Harbaugh is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a top-level t winning > 75% of their games in the second half of the season as the coach of SF. Two of the best defenses are featured in this game and that is why the total has been set low by lines makers correctly anticipating the public love of the 'under' in this game. Seattle ranks second in scoring offense and SF 10th. This is where the matchups favor scoring, especially by the 49ers. Despite being the second-best scoring offense, Seattle has a very avergae offensive line with all of them grading modestly negatively for the season. Giacomini has had three nightmare games against the 49ers and I don't see that changing one bit given the very strong play of the SF defensive front of Smith, McDonald, and Dorsey. Wilson has been fantastic in play action, but with the running game not getting untracked, he will need to make plays on his own. Both Wilson and Kaepernick throw deep covering more than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage on more than 15% of their attempts. Kaepernick uses plenty of play action involving 28.3% of his attempts. The difference in his effectiveness with and without play action is striking. With play action, Kaepernick completes 60.5% of his passes, has eight touchdowns, one interception, averages 8.5 yards per attempt, and has a QB Rating of 113.3. Without play action, his completion percentage drops to 56.7%, he

10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the New England Patriots in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Cleveland has a very good and vastly under rated defensive unit that ranks first in the NFL allowing just 4.4 yards-per-play and 4th allowing 307 yards-per-game. For the Patriots, Blount took the majority of the snaps as the

10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-6 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1983. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - average passing team posting between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA after 8+ games and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Antonio Brown has been a huge part of the Steeler offense, but this week the Steelers will be forced to look elsewhere with the presence of Grimes at CB. Grimes is one of the best CB in the NFL and has allowed a passer rating of just 62.6 and has defending 17 passes with 4 INT. He line sup nearly always on the left side so the Steelers will have the option of moving Brown to the other side of the field. Yet, if the Steelers elect to do this, it is in effect eliminating half the field of play due to the presence of Grimes taking it away. This will allow the rest of the 10 defenders to 'lean' to that right side when Brown is on the opposite side of Grimes. It also allows the run defense to shift to their left where the Steelers have run the majority of the time behind RG DeCastro. Miami has the two of the best interior run stoppers in Starks and Soliai, so just in these two matchups, the Pittsburgh offense has their two best options minimized. Take Miami.

10* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Houston Texans set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will win this game tonight and get their fourth win of the season. I publish a weekly Power Ratings Quotient sheet, which provides sports handicappers are solid starting point in generating some specific ideas for bets on the current week's card. In the previous matchup, the Jags won 13-7 for their second win and they are now a solid 3-1 since their Week 9 BYE week. In that game, JJ Watt posted one of the best grades EVER by a DE. The Jags still won the game. Houston QB Keenam has the ability to throw the deep ball and does so many times on a roll out. However, the JAX secondary is turning in a solid season. John Cyprien has played inspired coverage since the BYE week grading well in all four games and the return of form of coverage man Dwayne Gratz has been a huge boost. Look for Cecil Shorts to have a big game and perhaps his best game of the season. Houston will brig pressure and give Watts every opportunity sack, pressure, or hurry Henne. However, Henne has proved to be a very competent QB when getting the ball out quickly. he will have a significant matchup advantage targeting Shorts on hook and slant routes throughout this game. Let's not forget Maurice Jones-Drew either as he is coming off solid performances in recent weeks. His ability to run the ball will open the passing game even further for Henne in play action situations. Houston is a money burning 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Yet, I just outlined, that Jax is a vastly improved team since Week 9. Take Jacksonville.

10* graded play 'UNDER' Sainst/Seahawks.

10* graded play on the New Orleans Saints as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFL MNF action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Saints will lose this game by four or fewer points and have an excellent opportunity to win the game. I also have a 10* graded play 'UNDER'. This sets up a very rare and potentially big money maker for us tonight. I suggest playing this as two separate 10* plays and then adding a 2.5* amount using the money line and the 'under' for a parlay. Never consider doing teasers. It is a books biggest money maker and they are impossible to hit over time. So, take my advice on that and simply choose not to play teasers. Seattle has been great defending the pass, but Jimmy Graham presents some very tough matchups for them tonight. The former-third rounder leads all tight ends in yards (946), targets (95), catches (65), and TD catches (11). He won a battle against Arizona DB Peterson, who is arguably the fastest and quickest player in the league. The only game where he was stifled was against the Patriots where they used Talib to cover him on every down. Just the presence of Graham creates opportunities all over the field for Brees to setup. The Seattle defense will be without starter Browner and backup Thurmond leaving 2011 sixth-rounder Maxwell to fill the void. Marshon Lynch against the Saints defensive front is another key matchup. The Saints run defense has allowed only two 100+ rushers in Chris Ivory and Doug martin this season. They also rank 6th in the NFL allowing just 6.1 passing yards per pass play. They have tackled in space extremely well and limited yards after the catch. This game will take on a chess match of sorts with field position being valued much more than vertical risk taking. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?82-40 mark for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (SEATTLE) after a game where they forced four or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. Supporting the 'UNDER" play is a system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1983. Play 'under' with home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) and is an excellent passing team gaining >=7.3 PYA and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA after 8+ games and after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Payton is a rock solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when facing very good offensive teams scoring 27 or more points/game as the coach of the Saints.

10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the St. Lois Rams in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by 10 or more points. Here are some supporting game situations. Rams are just 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games when facing solid teams outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992; SF is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; Rams are just 10-28 ATS (-20.8 Units) revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992. Rams HC Fisher is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games revenging a home loss against opponent by 14 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992; Harbaugh is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SF. Crabtree is back making his 2013 debut and he will be gradually worked into the scheme. However, he provides yet another weapon for Kaepernick to target, which opens up more space for the power running game of Gore and ball possession pass plays to Davis. SIM projects that Kaepernick will average 8.0 or more net passing yards per attempt. In past games, the Rams are just 1-3 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS the last three seasons when allowing that 8.0 or more net passing yards per attempt. In the same manner, the SF are a 5-0 ATS this season and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons when gaining 8.0 or more net passing yards. Take the 49ers.

10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles with huge playoff implications for both teams. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Eagles are coming off the BYE week and need to win to keep pace with the Dallas Cowboys. JHC Chip Kelly named Foles his starting QB and now there is the added pressure for the offense to perform well to avoid having the reemergence of the QB debate take hold again. Arizona has the 7th best defensive unit in the NFL and will be by far the best defense Foles will see in more than a month. Arizona is on a four game win streak and scoring 27 PPG during this run. One of the best matchups for Arizona is DB Peterson going up against Desean Jackson. Peterson is one of the few DB that will follow the opponent's best receiver no matter where he lines up. Jackson has tremendous speed and has been able to beat DB and zones with that speed. however, Peterson is on the fastest players in the NFL and his closing speed is second to none. I strongly believe that Peterson will minimize Jackson's impact. QB Palmer is going to have extra time to throw the ball and get through his progressions as the Eagles have been largely inconsistent in the pass rush department. Arizona defense ranks 4th allowing 4.8 yards-per-play and I do strongly believe they can and will contain one of the best offenses in the NFL. Arizona is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Philadelphia is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-11 ATS for 78% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers. This system is 3-1 ATS this season and 13-4 ATS over the past three seasons. Take Arizona.

10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Oakland Raiders in NFL action set to start at 4:30 PM ET, Thanksgiving Day. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 13 or more points. Although Dallas has struggled to get even a two-game winning streak this season, those chances all happened on the road. They are coming off a big-time momentum booster defeating division rival NY last Sunday and now have a great opportunity to get two straight wins against a Raider team that has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball. Dallas ranks fifth in the NFL averaging 27.1 PPG and they will be going up against a Raider defense that has allowed 66% completions that ranks 27th in the NFL. The one matchup that I strongly believe will be dominated by the Dallas defensive front is stopping the Raiders ground attack. The season stats would say otherwise, but the Cowboy defensive front played their best game of the season against the Giants. They were humiliated by the Saints and the week off during the BYE was a great period for the team to work on what was going wrong. Dallas is getting better, not yet the defense we thought they might have at the beginning of the season, and Romo is playing at a very high level. Stopping the Raiders ground attack will be the first priority with the second being able to establish a three-score or more lead. I strongly believe they accomplish both. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?39-17 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2002. Play on favorites (DALLAS) that is a struggling defensive team allowing >=370 YPG and is now facing an equally poor defensive team allowing between 335 to 370 YPG with the current game being played after 8+ games. This underscores my beliefs above, in that Dallas' defense is playing vastly better right now, than their season stats have indicate. Oakland has not shown any improvement. Take Dallas.

10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on Washington in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 7 or more points. Several game situations support the 49ers with an easy cover tonight. They are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons. HC Harbaugh is a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play. Redskins HC Shanahan is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2002. Play against home underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) off a road loss against a division rival and with the current game being played in November. Kaepernick is going to have a big night and perhaps his best of the season. His struggles have been due to injuries in the receivers with Davis nursing a hamstring and Crabtree still out recovering from an achilles. However, for the first time this season Davis is healthy and Crabtree may be back next week. Brooks, who primarily plays on the left side, was involved in the controversial sack of Drew Brees last week that was nullified and deemed a 15-yard penalty helping the Saints win the game. Brooks, who got paid last season, currently leads all 49ers in sacks and has another seven QB knockdowns and 15 hurries on his 2013 resume. he will be going up against Tyler Polumbus, who has turned around this season from a horrendous 2012 season. Still, I think Polumbus will struggle against the speed, strength, and athleticism of Brooks. Kaepernick will be able to open up the playbook a bit tonight. There is no one on the Washington defense capable of covering Davis in space and he will be a great vertical opportunity down the seems. Take the 49ers.

10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the NY Giants in NFC East action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. I like splitting this wager into a 10* amount using the line and adding an optional 2* amount using the money line. The Dallas defense has been scorched this season and rank near the bottom in all major categories. Now, they are coming off a BYE week and this added rest and preparation work will make a huge difference in this matchup. In first meeting the Dallas DL was the dominant force pressuring Manning on 43% of his drop backs and 23 of the 24 pressures came from the front four without the need for blitzes. Giants Will Beatty was defeated badly in Week 1, but has since righted the ship and will do better this time around. However, there is no denying that Dallas is going to bring pressure the majority of the time knowing that the Giants cannot run the ball effectively against them - or anyone for that matter. Giants rank 25th running the ball 24 plays per game and 28th gaining just 77 rushing yards per game. Miles Auston, who should be near 100% healthy this week, caught 10 of his 11 targets for 72 yards in Week 1. As he so often does, TE Jason Whitten abused the Giants

10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North showdown set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game by at least three points. Browns have a stout defense, especially against the run. SIM projects that the Steelers will not gain more than 75 rushing yards. In past games, the Steelers are just 3-12 ATS the past three seasons and 15-54 ATS since 1992 when the have rushed for fewer than 75 yards. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons and 33-5 ATS when they hold an opponent to less than 75 rushing yards. Browns defense ranks best in the NFL allowing 4.4 Yards-per-play and third allowing 3.5 rushing-yards-per-play. I expect the Steelers to have problem sin the passing game. Steelers have had two excellent seasons from WR Brown and Cotchery, but in today's matchup Brown will be covered by Joe Haden, who is off the two best performances f the season by any DB. In Weeks 9 and 11, he allowed three completions for just 21 yards and had three INT. Steelers LB corp have had massive struggles and I expect Campbell to be able to execute high percentage passes to various WR. Josh Gordon is a huge weapon in man coverage off of play action. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?48-21 ATS mark for 70% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog and after the first month of the season. Take the Browns.

10* graded play on the New York Jets as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will win this game. Given the favorable projections I will suggest playing this game as a 8.5* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-12 mark for 73% winners since 2008. Play on road teams (NY JETS) off a road loss with the game taking place in November. Here is a second system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 2002. Play on road teams (NY JETS) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games with the current game taking place in weeks 10 through 13. The Jets young defensive front is one of the best in the AFC. Wilkerson is a terror and has had only three games without a sack. I see Baltimore Center Gradkowski as the weak link on the Ravens OL and it is that are where the Jets will elect to bring occasional pressure. The Ravens can't really double team Wilkerson as it will then allow Richardson and Coples to step up and make big plays. The Jets ground attack will be featured throughout this game. Ivory has been the leader recently with 73 carries in his last four games. The Jets OL has not graded well in run blocking, but it has improved with the emergence of Ivory. I do like the matchup of the Jets ground attack against the Ravens defensive front. This will allow Smith to play a more composed and relaxed game and not be pressured into trying to make high risk plays to move the chains. Take the Jets.

10* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Falcons will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also LOVE playing this as a money line combination bet. I will suggest playing a 10* play using the line and adding a 2.5* amount using the money line. I have seen lines as high as +375 on the money line and I believe that if you are patient this line could climb to 10 1/2 and sport near +400 on the money line. I am not saying this is a LOCK and I never use that word. However, when I make these plays/investments over the course of the season, the return on investment (ROI) becomes very high and very real. Even the struggling teams in the NFL have a tendency to bounce back with a much improved performance, especially against the elite opponents. Falcons have displayed this tendency and are a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?75-39 ATS mark for 66% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (ATLANTA) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a terrible team winning <=25% of their games and is now playing a team with a winning record with the current game being played in the second half of the season. Fortunately, Steven Jackson has returned to the lineup and last week he showed some of his tackle-breaking ability against the Bucs. Although Jackson gained just 41 yards on 11 carries, 33 of those yards came after contact and he forced four missed tackles. Atlanta desperately needs some balance right now, and Jackson has the ability to plug away and help keep the chains moving. Of course, better run blocking wouldn

10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game. We are now at the point of the NFL season where the surprises are quite evident. After a 1-3 start and Carolina fans calling for HC Ron Rivera's job, the Panthers have won 5 straight games. I had noted in yesterday's winning report on the Denver Broncos that KC had not defeated a team with a winning record yet this season. Carolina had that dubious distinction until they got a very impressive road win in SF last week. The Patriots have once again managed injuries in perfect order and now have two weapons returning to the lineup in Aquib Talib and Shane Vereen. The media attention is always focused on QB Brady, but what has gone largely unnoticed is the emergence of the Patriots ground attack. The most important return to the Patriots offense has been TE Rob Gronkowski, who has been the leading target for Brady in two of the three games he has played. Gronkowski ahs graded in the Top-5 of TE in run blocking in each of his first three seasons. Carolina has some very good coverage LB in Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly, but they have yet to face a team with the balance exhibited by the Patriots. The Carolina success has been predicated on a strong power running game and a stout defense. Jerod Mayo was lost for the season and in typical Patriots plug-and-play fashion, Brandon Spikes has become the NFL leader in run defense. DE Nonlovich ranks second among NFL DE in run stop grade. With Spikes ability to consistently blow up blockers, I strongly believe the Patriots will keep Carolina to a less than 125 rushing yards. The Carolina defensive front led by Greg Hardy and rookie of the year candidate Lotulelei, but the Patriots OL has developed into a strong group. Watch LT Nate Solder, who has become one of the best LT in the NFL and one that I strongly believe will completely protect Brady's blind side tonight. Belichick is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) as an underdog as the coach of the Patriots; 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more; 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when facing strong defensive teams allowing <=285 yards/game in games played in the second half of the season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?60-28 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2007. Play against favorites (CAROLINA) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games with the current game being played in November. Take the Patriots.

10* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by 10 or more points. KC is a perfect 9-0 on the season, but not one of their opponents has a winning record on the season. Hard to believe, but only the Dallas cowboys at 5-5 are the only team not have a losing record in the Chiefs 9 game win streak. The Chiefs defense knows that Manning has liked to stretch defenses in the vertical routes with 50% of his passes being 20+ yards. The Denver WR corps are excellent at getting separation and in this matchup, I strongly believe Manning will look to dissect the KC defense with underneath routes and look for the WR to get better than 50% of he passing yards after the catch has been made. The one weapon that Manning has that KC will have vast trouble defending is TE Julius Thomas. The third year pro is playing at a level that no other TE has matched and that includes Saints TE Graham. This is the nightmare situation for the Chiefs and if forced to double team him with a bracket coverage scheme, it will put Welker, D. Thomas, or Eric Decker in man situations. Manning averages a league-low 2.35 seconds to release the ball, which negates the Chiefs blitz schemes and will allow for the ground attack to work as well. Denver is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. SIM projects a high probability that Denver will have between 300 and 350 passing yards in this game. In past games, Denver is 4-0 ATS this season and 10-2 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 300 and 350 passig yards. Take Denver.

10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will lose this game by fewer than 3 points. Given the favorable projections, I like making this play as an 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. Kaepernick's struggles are not all his doing. he is missing Crabtree, who will be in a few weeks and has had the luxury of one of the best RB in the game in Frank Gore. He is an elite back, who has 13 runs of 15+ yards ranking him second best in the NFL. The Saints defense that ranked near the bottom in all categories the past two years has improved to a middle of the pack unit. However, their run defense is not strong. I expect the 49ers to run Gore at ILB Curtis Lofton, who has 14 total missed tackles, that is second worst in the league. Moreover, the Saints safety Malcolm Jenkins ranks 75th out of 85 safeties in run defense. Another 49er matchup advantage is with T Joe Staley, who will minimize Cameron Jordan, who has been the leading pass rusher for the Saints. Staley was the best tackle in the NFL in 2012 and now he has greatly improved his pass protection skills. The connection between Brees and TE Graham has led to the Saints surge in the NFC standings. The majority of these plays have been big play vertical routes. The 49ers have one of the best duos in the game in Reid and Whitner. The duo has combined for quarterbacks completing just 21 of 46 pass attempts for 296 yards and a 49 QB rating, and NO TD. Graham is also nursing an injury, which will slow him down as well. SF is a rock solid 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. SIM projects that SF will score 28 or more points, will gain 5.5 or more yards per rushing attempt, and will gain between 350 and 400 total offensive yards. In past games, the 49ers are 6-0 ATS this season and 17-2 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points; 3-0 ATS this season and 10-0 ATS the past three seasons when they have gained between 350 and 400 total offensive yards; 10-1 ATS the past three seasons when they have gained 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt. Take the San Francisco 49ers.

10* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the NY Jets in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game by three or more points. Good thing that this game is starti9ng at 1:00 PM ET as a very rare and extremely large severe weather pattern rolls east throughout the afternoon that is expected to produce numerous tornados and extreme 80 to 100 MPH straight line winds. So, weather will not be a factor in this game, but it is certainly wise to check weather conditions in the Midwest that may effect games you are thinking of playing. These two teams have two of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The Bills grade third best led by DE Kyle Williams and one of the Top-3 best run stoppers in DT Marcell Dareus. At the second level the Bills have two of the best pass rushers in Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams. The Jets have an excellent performing defensive front, but that pressure and style of play will not benefit them in this matchup. EJ Manuel has had more downs than ups in his rookie season, but there is one glaring situation he does bets in. He excels in quick drops and releases that serve to avoid the blitz and any pressure that is generated past 2.5 seconds. Emanuel's percentage drops from 70% to just 55% when blitz and this is the largest differential of any starting QB in the NFL this season. So, the game plan will be to establish the ground attack and then have Emanuel complete shot high percentage pass plays. Then play action becomes a very powerful situation that will give Emanuel more than 3.5 seconds to scan the field in man coverage situations. The Jets defensive front is one of the most difficult to run against, but I do like the matchup between Eric Wood and Harrison. Buffalo is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games facing inconsistent defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in games played in the second half of the season since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?50-22 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick (BUFFALO) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. This system is 3-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 72-34 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play against favorites (NY JETS) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season. This system is 10-2 ATS over the past three seasons. Take Buffalo.

10* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a NFC East battle set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Redskins will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and have a shot at winning the game. I like playing this as a 10* unit getting the points and then adding a 2* amount using the juicy money line. Washington is a solid 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) when facing strong passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-8 ATS for 79% winners since 2002. Play on road underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points and with the game being played in the second half of the season. DeAngelo Hall nearly got into a fight with Eagles WR Jackson in Week1 after horse collaring the wideout. Hall has graded quite well since Week 2 and has shadowed No.1 WR in each game for at last the first half of play. The Redskins then change of coverage assignments in the third quarter. I do think Hall will shadow Jackson all game and will minimize his big play ability throughout. Hall has covered Johnson and Demaryius Thomas and has three INT, with two returned for scores in those matchups. The Eagles run defense ahs been a significant bright spot this season. However, the mobility and elusiveness of RG III is going to present coverage problems for the secondary. RG III will be able use roll outs to extend plays beyond 3.0 seconds where the Eagles secondary has been exploited. The Eagle defense ranks 31st allowing 417 offensive yards per game, 31st allowing 307 passing yards per game, and 29th getting sacks on just 4.26% of all plays. I strongly believe RG III will have a vastly better game than Foles will have and that will the difference maker.

10* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game. Both teams are coming off very poor losses with Tennessee losing at home to the Jaguars and the Colts posting their worst loss since 2001 losing 38-8 to the Rams. Tennessee also lost their starting QB Locker for the season and will have to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick to run the offense for the remainder of the season. I'll give you the summary first and that is Tennessee has the better defense and that will be the dominant reason they win this game. I do believe that the defense will be at maximum preparedness and focus, especially after losing to JAX last week and knowing their season is all but on the line tonight against the Colts. The Rams defense exposed the weaknesses of the Colts offense and that was no fluke in my opinion. You can be assured that the Titans watched that film as often as possible and will adopt portions of the schemes used by the Rams. The Colts rank ninth in the NFL allowing 21.4 PPG, BUT has been attained in large part by massive mistakes and breaks by opponents in the red zone scoring areas. They rank 24th allowing 368 yards-per-game while the Titans defense ranks 9th allowing 326 YPG. The Titans will be highly successful in putting the Colts offense into numerous third-and-long situations and this the true strength of the Titans defense. They rank fifth allowing 33% of third downs to be converted for first downs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?72-34 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a losing record. Take Tennessee.

10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a very real shot at winning the game. I like playing this game as a 10* using the line and then adding a 2.5* amount using the Money Line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-20 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This will be a showdown between two NFC Division leaders and the Cowboys can take full control of the very weak NFC East with a win. The Saints defense has had a nice turn around this season, but their elite stoppers will have their toughest matchups tonight. One that sticks out is Saints DE Cameron Jordan, who grades a distant second to J.J. Watts, going up against the best tackle in the NFL in Doug Free. I strongly believe Free will not need double team help against Jordan and in turn this will give Romo plenty of time to survey the field. Moreover. Jordan has had just nine QB pressures in his last three games while starting out the season with 28 pressures in five games. Two major play makers for the Saints are banged up with Sproles and Graham listed as probable. The Saints offense really went south after Sproles left last week's game with a concussion. Graham has had a great season grading in the Top-3 of all receivers on the majority of categories I monitor, BUT he will be going up against arguably the best linebacker in the NFL this season in Lee. He ranks third best defending TE this season and his presence patrolling the middle of the field is going to wreak havoc with Brees' reads and throws. The Saints love to operate over the middle, so if he is having to check off and throw to the sidelines, that is a huge positive for the Dallas Cowboys as the game wears on. Take Dallas.

10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Houston Texans in inter-conference action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by four or more points. SIM projects that Arizona defense will hold Houston to between 250 and 300 net passing yards. In past games, Arizona is 4-0 ATS this season and 10-1 ATS the past three seasons when they have held an opponent to between 250 and 300 net passing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?48-22 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) and is a mistake prone team averaging 60+ penalty yards per game and after dominating the time of possession last game with >36 minutes. J.J. Watt has been the lone bright spot on the Texans defense posting a 50 graded overall while the rest of his defensive teammates combine for a horrid -49 grade. He has lined up as left DE 235 snaps and RE 106 and he will have a better matchup on the left side of this game. The guard positions are heavily tested when going up against Watt, but Arizona has a very strong left guard in Daryn Colledge. I strongly believe he will be very effective when faced against Watt and that Arizona can also line up a TE or use a RB to help pass protect. Arizona does not have an elite defender like Watts, but they have played very well as a unit. They have been able to get pressure on the QB and you will certainly that against an inexperienced KennuB under center. Look for them to use a double blitz through the A gap where both inside linebackers Washington and Dansby will both go to the same side of the center and flood the gap. Another matchup I truly like is having Patrick Peterson covering Andre Johnson. After a slow start, Peterson has been one of the best corners in the NFL. he has not allowed a TD in the past five games and has allowed 14 completions in 38 targets. Minimizing Johnson's impact, will go a long way to securing a win for the Cardinals.

10* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals they take on the Baltimore Ravens in AFC North action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game. Bengals are coming off a tough loss losing on a safety in OT to the Miami Dolphins. That was, though, a 10* winning release for us on the Dolphins. I want to mention that I will only release my plays when I am confident that every possible detail has been researched and quantified as best as possible. So, many days, these plays will come out, as they are this morning, several house before game time, as opposed to several days. Just keep this in mind when getting all of my 10* releases in all sports so you don't miss out on one single winning play or day. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 22-4 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2002. Play on home underdogs or pick (BALTIMORE) that are off a road loss against a division rival in games played in November. of the 22 winners, 14 of them have covered the spread by 7 or more points. The SIM projects that the Ravens ground game struggles will continue and that they will be held to fewer than 100 rushing yards. The Bengals are 10-1 ATS the past three seasons when they have held an opponent between 75 and 100 rushing yards. Since being the Bengals HC, Lewis is a resounding 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. Torrey Smith has been the lone bright spot on this Ravens offense. He leads the league with an average depth of target at 16.1 yards downfield. The most successful play for them has been when he runs a deep post route where he has caught all 7 passes for 199 yards. Flacco has connected with Smith, but his passing accuracy has been below average and absolutely horrid on the deep ball where only 25% of his passes are catchable. Terrance Newman has struggled in deep coverage, so the Ravens will look to get him isolated against Smith. However, the Bengals, will play a bracket allowing Newman and Adam Jones the luxury to play tight coverage in the first 10 yards of a pattern knowing they have excellent deep help from Iloka and Nelson. I fully expect that the underneath coverage defenders will jump a route and get interceptions on balls thrown in Smith's direction. The Bengals have a myriad of weapons for Dalton to throw to led by A.J. Green. RB Giovani Bernard has been a nightmare for defenses catching balls out of the backfield, where he ranks 2nd best in RB receiving grade. WR Marvin Jones has become the second WR and he has outperformed Green over the past month. Take the Bengals.

10* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they host the Washington Redskins in Thursday Night FB action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?59-17 mark using the Money Line for 77% winners and has made 31 units/unit wagered since 2002. Play against road teams using the money line (WASHINGTON) that is a struggling team outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game and after scoring 30 points or more last game. Two teams, who were expecting much better seasons will compete tonight. They also share the dubious distinction of the worst NFL scoring defenses. Minnesota has a great ground attack led by Peterson, but have had to abandon that strength when opposing offenses managed to get two scores ahead. Playing behind has been the theme with the Vikings, but I strongly believe things will be vastly different for them tonight. The best offensive scheme when two teams with horrid defenses face one another is play a power running attack with short underneath passes periodically on first down. This combination forces LB and second level defenders to respect the flats and to be aware of not getting beat on double-move vertical routes. The Redskins

10* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on the Chicago Bears in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Green Bay will win this game by 13 or more points. I also like a 5* on them in the first-half and to play 'UNDER' for a 5* amount. Given the extra pair of 5* plays, there is no advantage to throw more dough on a parlay. Sticking with the discipline is always the most important factor in joining me each day. SIM shows that Green bay will score more than 28 points.In past games, the Bears are 0-3 ATS this season, 0-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-67 ATS since 1992 when they have given up 28 or more points. SIM shows that GB will gain more than 450 offensive yards. In past games, The Bears are 3-15 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 450 or more yards. GB is 2-0 ATS this season, 5-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-8 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 450+ yards. They are a remarkable 117-32 ATS when the have scored 28 or more points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?55-23 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1983. Play on favorites (GREEN BAY) off a win against a division rival when playing on Monday night. 38 of the 55 winners covered the spread by 7 or more points. It is widely know how dominant Rogers has been against the Bears. However, tonight, it will the continued emergence of Eddie Lacy and Packers ground attack that will be noted. Lacy leads the league with 395 rushing yards since returning in Week 5 from his own injury. With 15 forced missed tackles and 208 yards after contact on 97 carries, his performance has been hard-earned. This has occurred despite below average play form the OL with run blocking grades over the past 4 weeks. Sitton is on the only OL earning solid grades, but I strongly believe the entire OL will have their best game tonight. The Bears have been hammered with injuries across the defensive front. It is quite evident in that they have are allowing 139 rushing yard per game and SEVEN TD over the last four weeks. Last year's first round pick, McClellin ranks 45th out of 46 DE in run defense and he has been overmatched and dominated in every game this season. This is also a reason for the 'UNDER' play as I expect more time consuming double digit play scoring drives, then flash scores in this matchup. The ground attack will also set up man coverage for Rogers to go to his favorite pass catcher in Nelson. These high percentage short pass routes will serve to get first downs and move the chains. Take the Packers for a 10* unit play, 5* Under and 5* Packers for the first-half line.

10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in AFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game. Baltimore may be coming off the BYE, but their problems cannot be fixed with added rest. They had a horrible time establishing the run and have put themselves in difficult second and third down situations. The entire OL has graded poorly in nearly every game this season. They fail to get open lanes and RB Rice has not shown significant elusiveness ands runs mostly down hill. The Browns offense has struggled due to QB injuries and Jason Campbell will get his shot to run the offense today. However, the dominant reason I see the Browns winning is their excellent defense, especially against the run. The unit ranks among the best in the NFL, led by Hughes, Taylor, and Rubin. A near-equally as strong matchup is with Browns WR Gordon. Since returning from his suspension in Week 3, Gordon has been playing like a Top 10 wide receiver. He is eighth in the league in yards-per-route-run at 2.27, and ranks higher than Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Torrey Smith, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson. All eight of his career touchdowns have come from over 20+ yards, so if he

10* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFC action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TB will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Based on the 'flash' stats and generic rankings, this is a mismatch. However, first note that Bucs are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when facing elite teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in games played in the second half of the season since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?22-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (TAMPA BAY) after 7 or more consecutive losses and is now facing an opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins. TB is winless and has lost their lead RB Doug Martin for the season. Seattle ahs lost just once this season. Point is that the line is heavily inflated reflecting those two facts. I had a 10* winner last Monday night when the Rams were supposed to get throttled by the Seahawks. The Ram had a chance on the final play from the Seahawk 1-yard line to win the game. Seattle escaped. The Rams did a great job establishing the run with a rookie RB. I believe the same thing will happen here in this matchup and that Mike James will have a very solid game. He has had only a few touches, but he has demonstrated great quickness and elusiveness and will be a solid weapon out of the backfield when Seattle brings pressure. Another matchup I like for the Bucs is the recent emergence of TE Timothy Wright. This has steadily become a go-to guy fro QB Glennon. The combo has connected on 19 of 25 targets, 195 yards, and a TD. Seattle is banged up on offense. Harvin will not play in this game and they have already lost Sydney Rice for the season. This makes Baldwin and Tate the featured WR and Bucs will certainly use Revis on Tate. This forces Wilson to then target Baldwin, who the Bucs secondary can bracket with disguised coverages knowing Revis will always be in man coverage against Tate. Take the Bucs.

10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a tremendous shot at getting a home win. I also like the 'UNDER' in this game for a 5* play and as an extra only play, consider placing a parlay using the Money Line and the 'UNDER'. I know some of you will consider teasing this opportunity, but believe me when I tell you to simply stay away from those losing proposition bets. In 19 seasons of sports handicapping, I have yet to find any reason to throw money on teasers. Fact is that simply playing a consistent and disciplined 10* wager on my NFL plays has made a ton of dough for you benefitting from the 21-6 ATS record. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?71-34 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (CINCINNATI) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a solid team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a losing record. Bengals QB Dalton has become the first Bengal to throw for 5 TD over a 3-game span and five of them came last week against the Jets. However, the Miami defense is vastly better and will bring a much more difficult assignment for Dalton to overcome. The Dolphins will be able to stop any Bengal ground attack and then can be fully focused on showing Dalton a wide array of defensive pre-snap looks. I don't believe they necessarily have to bring pressure on the majority of snaps, but can certainly show it during pre-snap. Miami will be successful in using a very creative defensive scheme to keep Dalton guessing. Take the Dolphins.

10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFC action set to start on MNF at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that St. Louis will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?36-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (SEATTLE) outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in two straight games. Befoere I address the Rams offensive scheme, let's first take a look at how the Rams defense matches up against the Seattle offense. The Seattle OL has not done a good job protecting Wilson as he has spent 25% of the snaps trying to create. Receivers are not getting separation from defenders in the first three to four seconds and the OL and double team help from backs and TE, have not given Wilson that extra 1/2 second to make plays. instead he has been on the run to extend plays and make things happen for them. The Seattle tackles are ranked 54th and 68th in Pass Blocking Efficiency, the guards 40th and 41st. Max Unger is th emost consistent member of the OL and ranks 10th among centers. Pass protection help isn

10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Cardinals will win thi sgame by at least 5 poits. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-6 mark for 81% winners since 1983. Play against road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) and are good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and is playing an average defensive team scoring between 18 and 23 PPG and after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons. 18 of the 26 wins have covered the spread by 7 or more points. This underscores my belief that this game will not be close. The SIM shows a proecjtion that the Falcons will not gain more than 100 rushing yards. In past games, the Cardinals are 2-0 ATS this season, 7-2 ATS the past three seasons, and 49-18 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Cards HC Arians is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1992. The Cardinals will be able to get plays today from their wideouts based on the matchups. Last year

10* graded play on the NY Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. It is an amazing fact that should Dallas stumble in Detroit and the Giants with the City of Brotherly Love, the Giants would find themselves just 2 games behind the division leader with 8 games remaining. The lack of a running game has put increased pressure on the right-arm of Eli Manning. I do believe that the Giants will be able to establish a ground attack today and take immeasurable pressure of Eli to execute third and long situations. One of the key matchups to watch is Victor Cruz when lined up as the slot receiver. He will be defended by Boykin. In the first game between these two clubs, Boykin did a great job against Cruz. In fact, when QB have thrown to the slot receiver with Boykin in coverage they have a very weak 49 QB rating. Cruz will get lined up all over the field today to create matchups that avoid Boykin. Should Boykin follow suit to the perimeter to shadow Cruz all game, then their ill be excellent matchups in the interior of the Eagles secondary. By his presence on the field, Cruz can take Boykins impact out of the game, even if he has minimal targets from Manning. Note, the Eagles secondary has been torched and ranks 31st in the NFL. Both CB, Williams, and Fletcher rank poorly in yards allowed per coverage snap. Another key to a Giants win is slowing down RB Sean McCoy. In the first matchup, the Giant tackles dominated Eagle Center Kelce, who has emerged as one of the best young centers in the NFL. However, the Giants bring major matchup problems to him and the Eagles OL. In the first game, Kelce recorded a horrid -8.5 grading, which is by far his worst game this season. McCoy averaged 2.2 YPC in that first game and I fully expect more fo the same today. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-8 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2002. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games and is a struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season. Eagles defense will be exploited. They rank 23rd alloing 5.7 yards per play and 26th allowing 28 PPG. The Ginats flash stats are not strong. However, they rank 11th best allowing 5.1 yards-per-play. This reflects that they have had to deal with the offensive woes and trying to defend far too many short field situations. This game will be vastly different. Take the Giants.

10* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the St. Louis Rams in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 33-8 ATS since 2002 for 81% winners. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) that are poor rushing team averaging between 70 and 95 RY/game and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 70 and 95 RY/game. Here is a second system that has gone 120-70 ATS for 64% winners since 1983. Play against road underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. SIM projects that Carolina will gain between 7.5 and 8.0 net passing yards/attempt, that t Rams will have less than 75 rushing yards, that Carolina will gain more than 125 rushing yards, and will outgain the Rams by ay least 150 total offensive yards. In past games, Carolina is 4-1 ATS the past three seasons and 14.5 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 7.5 and 8.0 ne passing yards/attempt. Panthers are 13-3 ATS over the past three seasons, and 52-15 ATS since 1992 when gaining more than 125 rushing yards, and 3-1 ATS the past three seasons and 19-5 ATS since 1992 when they have outgained the opponent by 150 or more offensive yards. Rams are just 5-10 ATS over the past three seasons and 25-55 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 150+ rushing yards; 1-10 ATS the past three seasons and 19-71 ATS since 1992 when they have gained less than 75 rushing yards; 1-5 ATS the L3 seasons and 7-17 ATS since 1992 when they have been outgained by 150+ total yards. There are several matchup favoring the Panthers, but the biggest one is in the passing attack against a very banged up Rams secondary. Newton's go-to man has been Steve Smith and defenses have been able to reduce his impact. Newton's QB rating is just 70 when throwing to Smith placing him 65th of 93 qualifying QB. The two other receivers I strongly believe will have big days and will in turn open up man coverage for Smith are Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn. Newton's QB rating is a robust 114 when targeting this duo and grade higher than Randall Cobb or Brandon Marshall. Featuring these two receivers will open up the entire field for the Carolina offense. Take Carolina.

10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a battle for first place in the NFC East set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. As a suggestion you can add a 2* play using the money line to the 10* play getting the points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?32-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2008. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) and is a struggling rushing team averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game. Here is a second system that has gone 46-18 ATS for 72% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. Much attention has been on the severely injured Dallas Cowboys. However, the Eagles defense is a highly suspect group and are going to be on their heels most of the game. Dez Bryant has emerged as one of the game's bets and most prolific playmakers. On passes thrown to Bryant, Tony Romo has a QB rating of 129.4, which is the fourth-highest in the NFL. On the 53 passes thrown to Bryant he has 34 receptions, six touchdowns, and none of the balls have been intercepted. He has also become a more reliable pass catcher. In 2012, he dropped 10.7% of the catchable passes thrown his way. So far this season, Bryant has dropped just two catchable passes, bringing his percentage down to 5.6%. McCoy is arguably the most important offensive player in the Eagles offense. he leads the NFL is rushing yards and the Eagles offense is first in the NFL overall. Ware is out for the Cowboys and the Eagles will certainly look to get the ball in McCoy's hands often. However, I see the Cowboys doing a great job defending McCoy and forcing Foles into using his arm to move the chains.With Ware out, players like inside linebacker Sean Lee, outside linebacker Bruce Carter, and defensive tackle Jason Hatcher will be able to offset the loss of Ware today. Lee ranks fourth among inside linebackers at RSP, making 21 stops in 129 run snaps and has the physicality to tackle McCoy in space. Carter and Hatcher both rank in the Top 15 in RSP at their respective positions and will also be very active. Romo is doing a great job with progressions and setting up favorable matchups. he is well protected by an OL with two players grading in the Top-15 in the NFL. Eagle blitz means Bryant and others will be in man-coverage. Take Dallas

10* graded play on Arizona as they take on Seattle in NGL action set to start Thursday Night at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ARZ will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like playing the game as an 8.5* play getting the points and a 1.5* unit play using the money line. Another option if you are increasingly bullish on this idea is to simply play a 10* amount using the line and add a 3* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?24-10 mark using the money line and has made 28 units/unit wagered averaging a +160 Dog Play since 1983. Play against road teams using the money line (SEATTLE) that are excellent rushing team averaging >=150 RY/game) and is facing a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) and after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. Arizona is solid 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games since 1992. What I see here in this matchup is the ARZ defense containing the ground game and Marshawn Lynch. The Seattle OL is banged up and has not graded well, especially last week. Lynch is having a another solid season forcing 29 missed tackles and 285 of his 485 rushing yards coming after contact. However, ARZ LB Brinley leads all NFL LB's in run defense grade. Shaughnessy is next and ranks very high as well in this category. I am confident you will see secure solid tackling from ARZ tonight and will force Russell Wilson into 2nd-and-long situations. ARZ has just 6 missed tackles in their last three games. Wilson needs the ground attack to be effective and leads the NFL using play-action 38% of the time. ARZ knows this and play-action is not nearly as effective in long-yard situations. ARZ RB Andre Ellington will have a big game tonight as he has speed/quickness advantages against the Seattle matchups. He will be used all over the field lining up as WR, slot WR, RB. Palmer will look to get the ball to him in space and let him make plays to gain max yards after the catch. I also believe Mendelhall's pounding ground attack will be successful enough to keep pressure off of Palmer. He obviously needs to have a better game tonight and I believe he will. Take Arizona.

10* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they host the Indianapolis Colts in NFC action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Chargers will win this game. The Chargers are banged up, but QB Rivers has been sensational so far this season completing a remarkable 74% of his passes. Even last week in an 'off' game he threw for 411 passing yards and completed 70% of his throws. This is not a fluke and it is not because he is completing a lot of short dump-off passes. In fact, he has increased his average depth of target ratio from 7.8 in 2012 to 8.5 in 2013. Even more impressive is that he has decreased his average time to release by 0.32 seconds in 2013. So, he has more or less adopted many of the passing techniques an dreads that ahs made Peyton manning so incredible. Rivers is also showing some great accuracy with the deep ball as well. He has a strong group of receivers and this allows him to spread the ball all over the field and forces defenses to not double team any WR. Antonio gates will see a lot action tonight with many routs targeting the greatest weakness in the Colts interior LB defense. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN DIEGO) and are excellent offensive teams gaining >=5.8 YPP and is now facing a team with a poor defense allowing between 5.4 to 5.8 YPP, and after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 16 of the 24 winning plays based on this system covered the spread by seven or more points and this under scores my strong belief that the Chargers will win this game fairly comfortably. Take the Chargers.

10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by three or more points. After last week's loss and having scored just 6 points, the Patriots offense will rebound in a very big way against a suspect Saints defense. SIM projects that Brady and Co. will gain better than 6.0 Yards-Per-Play, and will rush for 125 to 150 yards. In past games, the Patriots are 16-2 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 6.0+ yards per play and 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 125 to 150 rushing yards. The ground attack will be easily attainable today for the Patriots and this opens up the whole playbook to Brady in play action situations. I also believe Thompkins will have a huge day in the vertical game for the Patriots. The Saints have one of the worst grading run blocking OL in the NFL. Even before Wilfork went out to injury, Tommy Kelly was the best interior lineman on the Patriots. He hobbled out after a third goal and he was clearly missed when the Bengals stuffed the ball into the end zone for the winning TD. Brandon Spikes is playing great football and is coming off a career best grade in last week's loss. He is one of the best run stopping LB in the game right now. For NE, Ridley will be back and I expect him to have a strong day running behind the fourth best run blocking OL in the NFL. The Patriots can and will stop the Saints ground attack, but the Saints will be overpowered by the Patriots ground attack. Patriots will have a huge edge in TOP and that keeps Brees off the field. Take the Patriots.

10* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total in the 49ers-Cardinals game and a 10* play on the 49ers set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored in this game and that the 49ers will win this game by 13 or more points. Obviously, the matchups I have studied favor the 49ers to dominate this game. ARZ is just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. SIM shows projections calling for ARZ to have less than 75 rushing yards and that they will be outgained by 2+ yards per play. In past games, ARZ is just 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 9-29 ATS since 1992 when they have been outgained by 2+ YPP and the 49ers are 12-2 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards. 49ers are 9-1 ATS the past three seasons when out gaining their opponent by 2+ YPP. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?51-21 record for 71% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (ARIZONA) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Supporting the Total play 'UNDER' is a system that has gone 26-5 'UNDER' for 84% winners since 1983. Play 'under' with road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (ARIZONA) and is off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog and is now facing an opponent off a home win. So, Play 10* SF, 10* 'UNDER' and a 5* parlay SF+'Under'.

10* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they host Philadelphia in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bucs will win this game. I have to admit, I have never had to consider the very infectious MRSA ailment as a possible reason not to play on a team graded by my SIm and supporting game research. Obviously, I feel confident in moving forward with the release. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 51-23 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) off a double digit road win and after the first month of the season has been completed. Much media attention is on the Eagle offense with Vick having a hamstring injury and backup Foles now the starter - possibly for the next several weeks. My research shows that it will be the Eagles defense that will be the main problem preventing them from winning the game and getting back to the -.500 level. I actually believe Foles is the best suited QB under the Chip Kelly spread offense scheme after watching Oregon play on the West Coast for years. So, despite that 'positive development coming out of the Vick injury, it is the Eagles defense that is vulnerable to large numbers of points each week. Revis will be matched up against Jackson and I do not see Jackson having another great game. Jackson also started a war of words stating earlier in the week that Revis could not stay up with him in the speed department. Revis chose not to enter into the war of words, but obviously that is bulletin board material for the entire defense. Jackson has been targeted 26 times this season while the rest of the Eagle WR have been targeted 48 times. The Bucs can use man coverage with Revis ro they can bracket Jackson allowing Revis to jump any slant routes, knowing he has deep help if the play is a double move one. So, with Jackson minimized to a degree, it will allow the Bucs defense to play very aggressive and get pressure on Foles. In last week's win over the Giants, the Eagles interior offensive line played poorly and the Bucs will look to bring pressure up the gut more than perimeter. This pressure will be excellent against zone runs by RB McCoy as well. Take the Bucs.

10* graded play on the NY jets as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in MNF action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Much ash been made about the woes of the Jets, but it is actually the Falcons, who have the disjointed lines right now. The Falcons have the tow worst starting tackles in the NFL in Holmes and Baker. They rank horribly low in pass block efficiency ratings. They have added Jeremy Trueblood, but he is average at best. As a unit, the Falcons rank 29th in PBE and that is not going to get the job done against a very strong Jets defensive front. They Jets have one of the best three-man frons in the NFL with Sheldon Richardson, NT Harrison, and Wilkerson, who is off to an average start to the season. I fully expect him to lift his game tonight under the MNF lights. So, Atlanta will be reduced to a pass-only offense very quickly in this game. The Jets secondary will have to play better and I expect Cromartie to grade high tonight after several very poor games. Not many will agree with me right now, but I definitely see the Jets being able to run the ball on the ground tonight. I like the matchups they have for this success and this will take immeasurable pressure off of Smith and allow him to use play action to hook up for big gains in the vertical attack. He already leads the NFL with 12 completions of greater than 25 yards totaling 433 yards. This threat will eliminate the Falcons ability to bring 8-men to the box. Atlanta is just 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. SIM projects that the Jets will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, Atlanta is just 3-6 ATS the past three years and 20-38 ATS since 1992 when having allowed that range of rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-5 ATS for 82% winners since 2002. Play on any team (NY JETS) that is a struggling offensive team scoring between 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG and after a loss by 21 or more points. This system has gone 11-1 ATS over the past five season. Take the Jets.

10* graded play on the SF 49ers as they take on the Houston Texans in Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?79-39 mark for 67% winners since 2002. It is 4-1 ATS this season. Play on favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) in non-conference games that are off a win against a division rival. SIM projects that SF offense will be in gear tonight and will average more than 6.0 yards-per-play will gain between 350 and 400 offensive yards. In past games, SF is a rock solid 8-0 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 350 and 400 offensive yards and are 15-3 ATS when gaining more than 6.0 yards-per-play over the past three seasons. Houston is just 1-6 ATS when allowing 6.0+ yards-per-play over the past three seasons. Kubiak is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games off a home loss as the coach of Houston. There was no more impressive OL unit in the league last year than the 49ers

10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game. Carolina QB Newton is coming off a huge performance the most lop-sided win in the franchise's 19-year history. Adding to the public's irrational betting on Carolina is the fact they are coming off a BYE as well. A supporting 'indicator' is that better than 75% of all best are being made on Carolina. Whenever I see 70% bets on one team at the 12 different books I monitor, than it is an immediate red flag. The majority of my plays will be against the public flows, but not all. Bottom line is that I relay on my SIM for all projections and for all 10* graded plays. The following research, betting flows, systems, and game situations serve to reinforce and support the graded play by the SIM. Arizona is a solid 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when facing very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game since 1992; 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?34-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2002. Play against road teams (CAROLINA) after a win by 21 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. Week 5 is becoming the week when suspended players return from their off-season transgressions and Arizona gets back a major part of their defense in Daryl Washington. The inside linebackers have struggled against some of the better TE in the league. Washington will provide immediate help in coverage and pass rush situations. Combined with their best defensive player, Paterson, this defense takes on a much stronger look that I believe Cam Newtown will struggle against. Another factor in this game is that Arizona traded their starting LT, Levi Brown, to Pittsburgh and this puts Bradley Sowell in the LT position protecting Palmer's blind side. Interesting to note, that he played for Arians before and they did pick him up off waivers from Indy. That alone, gives me the confidence that HC Arians believes Sowell is better than Brown and will do a great bob in run blocking and pass protection. Take Arizona.

10* graded play on the JAX Jaguars as they take to the road to play the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Jacksonville reminds of a stock that just keeps getting hammered lower in price as each week passes. That stock finally reaches a severe oversold condition at which point, the stock rallies sharply. That is exactly where I find JAX for this game. I fully expect Maurice Jones-Drew to have a huge game as St. Louis ranks 26th allowing 4.6 RYPC, 24th facing 29 rushing plays per game, 30th allowing 133.5 RYPG. St. Louis rushing attack is even worse then their run defense. They rank 31st in the NFL gaining just 2.6 YPC and last averaging just 47.2 RYPG. STL is just 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after being outgained by 150 or more total yards 2 consecutive games since 1992; 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?40-11 mark for 78% winners since 1983. Play against favorites (ST LOUIS) in a game involving two poor rushing teams with both outrushed by opponents by 40+ YPG and after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. Here is a second system that ahs gone 27-7 ATS for 79.4% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more, a terrible team posting a <=25% win percentage and now playing a team with a losing record. This system has gone 14-1 ATS over the past 10 seasons and is 8-0 ATS over the past five seasons. In the battle of two very weak teams, this is just far too many points to ignore. Take JAX.

10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they host the Buffalo Bills in NFL Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game by 6 or more points. These are two teams fresh off wins installed as home dogs. The Hoyer era has yet to be fully quantified and valued by the public and I strongly believe this team can continue to play well and cover spreads. Buffalo needs the presence of RB CJ Spiller and he is not anywhere close to a 100% for this game. The worst injury a RB can have where he can still manage to play is the ankle. They rely on quick bursts and cuts to gain yards and Spiller's lack of lateral movement will be evident in this game. The Browns defense is playing very well and I believe they will contain and even shutdown the Buffalo offense. Even with the trade of Richardson, the Browns OL is doing a great job in run block schemes. The SIM shows a projection calling for the Browns to gain 100 to 125 rushing yards. In past games where they have achieved this ground game success they are a solid 7-1 ATS over the past three years and 31-15 ATS dating back to 1992. A strong running game sets up play action pass plays for Hoyer to attack vertically with Josh Gorden. I think that is what was initially forgotten that when Richardson was traded, Gorden came back from a suspension and he is arguably one of the best skill players in the league. Buffalo is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Take Cleveland.

10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the New Orleans Saints in a battle of unbeaten teams set to start on MNF at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at staying unbeaten. The fact that this game is being played in NO is more than offset by the fact that Miami has played a vastly more difficult schedule to date. Miami has defeated Cleveland and Indy on the road and won their home opener in Week 3 against Atlanta. Saints have defeated Atlanta and Arizona on home tilts while defeating the Bucs on the road. This will be their most difficult test to date, but they are riding a huge wave of confidence led by QB Tannehill. Their last offensive drive was when Tannehill recorded his first last-minute comeback victory against the Falcons engineering a 13-play, 75-yard drive he capped with a 1-yard TD pass to rookie tight end Dion Sims with 38 seconds remaining. Those are the types of plays and drives that brings team chemistry fully together and can lead a team to the playoffs and beyond. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?86-105 mar for just 45% winners, but has made 54 units/unit wagered since 1983. This system has averaged an incredible +186 Dog play. Play against any team using the money line (NEW ORLEANS) and is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards/game and after outgaining previous opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. The Saints are doing a much better job getting pressure on opposing QB's. The Saints defense has sacked or put opponents under duress on 29.5 percent of drop backs this season, sixth in the NFL. Last season the Saints put quarterbacks under pressure on 19.4 percent of drop backs, 27th in the NFL. However, Tannehill is making quick and correct decisions in his progressions and rarely holds the ball more than 3.0 seconds. So, the Saints pressure may be a mute point. Also, The Saints QB Brees has gone to TE Jimmy Graham a ton in the first three games. Of note is the fact that has caught 17 of his 23 passes this season when starting the play split out wide. No Saints wide receiver even has 17 total receptions. Last, but not least, Tannehill ranks best in the NFL completing 63% of his passes beyond 10 yards and this will expose the weaknesses in the Saints underneath coverage. Take the Dolphins.

10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road to face the Atlanta Falcons in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game. Last week we saw the Patriots stumble out of the blocks and Tampa Bay fail to capitalize of that fact. The result was not just an easy NE win, but we also saw the Patriots start to gel on offense. OC McDaniels and HC Belichick are arguably the best tandem in NFL history in maximizing offensive schemes to match the personnel. The Patriots have two very talented and highly skilled WR in Thompkins and Dobson get on the same page as their QB. The results have to be scary for any DC in this league having to face what will be an ever improving offense. In past seasons, the Patriots ran a base '"12" offense which is 2 WR, 2 TE, and 1 RB that opened up holes in the defense for Brady to exploit. The personnel is vastly different so the Patriots are adapting and using an "11" base scheme with 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB. The first two weeks, the receivers did not get consistent separation from their defenders, but they started to do so in Week 3 against a sound Bucs defense. Atlanta is banged up on both lines and I don't see how they will be able to pressure Brady for four quarters. We all have seen what happens to opponents when Brady has more than 3 seconds to throw the ball and I strongly believe that is what you will see in this game. Here are some game situations supporting the Patriots. They are a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better since 1992; 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games facing a solid offensive team averaging >=5.65 yards/play since 1992. Take the Patriots.

10* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they host the Baltimore Ravens in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at recording the mild upset win today. The parity of the NFL allows teams to have bounce back weeks after poor showings. There are always exceptions, but Buffalo is in a prime bounce back situation. They will be getting Spiller back at RB and I believe that this ground attack will be very successful against the Ravens defense that ahs not allowed a TD in 2 straight games. Buffalo is on a nice 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?114-74 mark making 51 units/unit wagered since 2002. Play against road teams using the money line (BALTIMORE) that are off a home win by 10 points or more, with the current game taking place in the first half of the season. Here is a second very strong money producing system that has gone 22-15 for just 57% winners, but has made a whopping 28 units/unit wagered averaging a +198 dog play since 2008. Play against favorites using the money line (BALTIMORE) off 2 or more consecutive 'unders', an average defensive team allowing 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG. This system clearly reflects the parity of the NFL that on any given Sunday any upset can happen. Baltimore has a decent ground game and may get Ray Rice back in the lineup. Whether he plays or not, the SIm projects that the Ravens will get between 4.0 and 4.5 YPC in this game. In past games, Buffalo is an amazing 15-2 against the money line (+13.0 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992. Take the Buffalo Bills.

10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the SF 49ers in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by three or fewer points and has a solid shot an upset win tonight that would send the 49ers season into near chaos. Kaepernick is not a progression passer right now. His develop is still on a huge learning curve and he will overcome this in the second half of the season. He takes the snap and looks down one receiver and if covered he pulls out of the pocket far too soon. His quick decision making to abandon the pass play and get to his hot reads makes it very difficult for the OL to provide effective protection for him. The Rams defense is pretty darn good right now and I do believe they will focus on stopping the run and force Kaepernick to make plays with his arm. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?55-25 mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick (ST LOUIS) -after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after a loss by 10 or more points. Here is a ML system that has gone 23-5 for 82% winners and has made 22 units/unit wagered since 2002. Play against any team using the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) -that is a struggling offensive team scoring between 14 and 18 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing >=27 PPG and after a loss by 14 or more points. Even though the Rams defense has given up points, they match up well against the 49ers, who rank 29th in the NFL averaging just 14.9 PPG. I like the Rams.

10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they host the Atlanta Falcons in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game by four or more points. Atlanta is banged up both sides of the ball and will have numerous second and third players on the depth chart in starting roles today. This is always a difficult situation for any NFL team. Adding this many new players into starting roles makes communication and chemistry very erratic and inconsistent. Moreover, the line has been going up over the last few days, yet the percentage of bets being made is clearly on Atlanta. This reflects a very strong large amount of small bettors taking Atlanta and the large, so-called 'smart-money', is on Miami. Normally, I look for 70% or higher extremes in betting imbalances as another tool. All of my research, fundamentals, technical matchups, and game situations serve only to reinforce the SIM graded opportunity. Miami is projected to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games, Miami is 2-0 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS the past three season, and 61-28 ATS since 1992 when scoring within this projected range. Take the Dolphins and lay the points.

10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Minnesota Vikings in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at winning the game. I like adding a 1* play using the money line to augment the 10* play using the line. One of these teams will be 0-3 and essentially playing for pride. The Browns made a shocking trade dealing RB Richardson to the Colts for next year

10* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they host the NY Giants in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game by three or more points. This line opened much tighter than I had anticipated and the public is just all over the Giants. Whenever I get a pubic reading of 70% or higher, it is certainly a red flag for the team being backed. The SIM is the dominant reason we are making ANY play, but betting consensus can reinforce that grading when we are against the 'public'. I do think far too much weight has been given to betting consensus and smart money analysis over the past few seasons. I only want to point out that when levels of irrational exuberance are reached it is a supporting factor. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?44-16 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2008. Play against road teams using the money line (NY GIANTS) and is a terrible defense from last season that allowed 360 or more total yards/game. Here is a second system that has gone 44-22 ATS for 67% winners since 2002. Play against any team using the money line (NY GIANTS) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after a loss by 3 or less points. I just don't see how the Giants defense is going to hold up against the Panthers ground attack. The SI shows a high probability that Carolina will have 150 or more rushing yards. In past games, the Giants, are just 3-5 ATS the past three seasons and 21-52 ATS since 1992 when allowing 150 or more rushing yards. This type of projection is applicable to nearly all NFL teams. In this league is very difficult to win when getting torched on the ground. It then sets up play action, in this case for a very mobile QB, and puts immeasurable pressure on the secondary. Take Carolina.

10* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that KC will win this game. I like adding a 2* amount getting at least +130 using the money line for this 10* graded play. The Eagles defense has been torched the past two games. If not for some bad breaks in the red zone, the Chargers would have had arguably 10 more points and the game would not have ever been close. Although a small sample size, the Eagles defense ranks 28th allowing 30.0 PPG, 30th allowing 461 YPG, 28th allowing 6.2 YPP, 25th allowing 48% third-down conversions, and 25th allowing 69% pass completions. KC offense ranks 9th getting 3.0 TD's per game, 7th gaining 4.5 yards-per-rush, and are disciplined ranking second with 32.5 penalty yards per game. The high powered quick flowing Eagle offense has been a crippling factor for the defense, who has to play 56.36% of the game time. Eagles are dead last in TOP in the NFL. CB Carey Williams has been torched and the secondary is a bit banged up with Fletcher and Boykin (nickel back) listed as probable with minor nicks. The Eagles play a base 3-4 defensive scheme that has many holes and weaknesses entering this game. Reid is a great game planner and will have a game plan that will constantly keep the Eagles defense off balance and will use play action pass a ton to exploit blitzes and man coverage situations. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-10 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers. 55% of these winning plays covered by at least 7 points and under scores why I believe KC will win this game. SIM shows a high probability that KC will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. KC is a rock solid 40-15 against the money line (+24.6 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards since 1992. Take Kansas City.

10* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in AFC North action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game by 8 or more points. SIM shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will not gain more than 100 rushing yards. In past games, the Bengals are 7-0 ATS when they have allowed between 75 and 100 rushing yards in games played over the past three seasons. The biggest mismatch in this game is in the trenches where the Bengal defensive front should be able to control the Steeler OL completely. Kelvin Beachum is making his first start at Center for the Steelers replace the pro bowler Maurkice Pouncey. The Bengals defensive line that averaged 3.21 sacks per game is back and better than ever before. QB Roethlisberger has never been mobile and he will be under constant pressure in this game. The Bengals lost their starting left tackle, but new starter Anthony Collins held Chicago's all-world defensive end Julius Peppers in check. A.J. Green has averaged 62 receiving yards per game when playing the Steelers. His career average is a strong 80.3 per game and he is arguably one of the best WR in the AFC right now. The veteran Ike Taylor will be responsible for shadowing him and it may be a very long night for him as I don

10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game. Last week, the Eagles rank 53 plays in their first half win against the Redskins while Seattle ran 51 plays for the entire game in their 12-7 win over Carolina. Point is that I don't see how the Seattle offense will be able to keep pace with the 49ers offense. It is a fact that Seattle has a very strong defense, but I strongly believe that Kaepernick will have a another big day passing the ball. SF is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?63-31 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2008. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) after a game where they committed no turnovers. Here is a second system working against Seattle and has produced a 71-37 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2008. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) after scoring 14 points or less last game. SIM projects that SF will have more than 150 rushing yards and will gain better than 350 total offensive yards. In past games, the 49ers are a stout 11-5 ATS the past three seasons and 69-25 ATS since 1992 when they have rushed for more than 125 yards. 49ers are 7-0 ATS over the past three seasons and 47-21 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 350 and 400 total yards. Take the points and the 49ers.

10* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Oakland Raiders in AFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 4 points. I like playing this game as a 7.5* play using the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?104-54 ATS mark for 66% winners since 1983. Plat against home teams (OAKLAND) off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. SIM shows a high probability that JAX offense will get in gear against a highly suspect Raiders defense. SIM shows that JAX will score 22 to 28 points an din past games achieving this range of points, they are 3-0 ATS the past three seasons and 55-20 ATS since 1992. Chad Henne will start today in place of the injured Gabbert. I am very confident in stating the offensive chemistry will be far better given the matchup. Jones-Drew will have a solid day running and catching the ball and this will inevitably set up play action pass plays for Henne to target WR Shorts in man coverage. Oakland corners are going to be tested by the athleticism of Shorts, who I feel is a budding star for the JAX team. Oakland also uses a 4-3 base scheme, which will open up underneath passes to Jones-Drew and quick hitting slants to Shorts. I like JAX a lot in this game.

10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rams will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given these favorable projections for our DOG, I like playing this with an extra 2* amount using the money line. Atlanta got off to a strong start in Week1, but failed to execute for 60 minutes and allowed the Saints to slip by with the win. Atlanta is just 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Rams are coming off a well earned win over Arizona, but failed to cover by a 'hook'. HC Fisher is a solid money making 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) off a home win against a division rival in all games he has coached since 1992. I also believe the injuries to WR Julio Jones and Roddy White will hamper the Falcons offense and they are facing a vastly under rated Rams defensive unit. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-9 mark using the money line for 72% winners and has made 19 units per unit wagered averaging a +120 dog play since 1992. Play on any team using the money line (ATLANTA) off a road loss against a division rival and is now facing an opponent off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. What I like most about the Rams in this matchup is the strong running game. The Rams OL blocked very well last week allowing Richardson to have a strong game. This presence will force Atlanta to respect the run first. It will then set up QB Brafford in play-action pass routes. Pettis was targeted 6 times last week and had three catches. This week I believe he well could be the targeted preferred pick in play action situations with Given on the other side stretching the defensive secondary. Take the Rams.

10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a meaningful probability of pulling off an upset. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?51-23 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2002. Play against favorites (BALTIMORE) that was a struggling defensive team from last season that allowed 5.4 or more yards/play and is now playing a division opponents. With Richardson in the backfield, I believe that Cleveland will gash the Baltimore defense for a big day. SIM projects that Browns will have between 100 and 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Browns are a solid 6-1 ATS the past three seasons and 30-15 ATS since 1992 when the have gained 100 to 125 rushing yards. An additional piece of data shows that slightly more than 70% of the best being made at the Books I track are on the Ravens. By itself, this has always been a red flag and a supporting piece of data when the SIM has the other side. I also will suggest adding a 2* amount using the inflated money line to take advantage of the possible upset win by the Browns. Take Cleveland.

10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the NY Jets in NFC East action set to start at 8:25 PM ET, Thursday, September 12, 2013. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by more than 14 points - yes even with the injuries to the Patriots offensive unit. Rookie WR Kenbrell Thompkins was targeted 14 times Sunday but caught four passes for 42 yards. It was a sure case of nerves and I fully expect him to be targeted the same amount again in this game. With Vareen on the DL now until Week 11, Thompkins and Edelman will me the go to guys for Brady. Let's not forget that the Patriots can run the ball and Ridley will be a huge part of that attack as well. Patriots are a resounding 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. SIM shows that NE will gain 5.5 to 6.0 Yards per play and will score between 22 and 28 points. NY Jets are just 2-6 ATS the past three seasons and 19-53 ATS since 1992 when the have allowed 22 to 28 points and are 1-6 ATS the past three seasons and 17-36 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. Patriots have a strong history of overcoming injuries and tweaking their offense to fit the personnel. Further, no one is better at the LOS in identifying mismatches than Tom Brady. Lay the Lumber!

10* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they host the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET and will be televised on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the Redskins will win this game by seven or more points. I see this game a little different than most others. New HC Chip Kelly has brought his high powered fast paced offense to the NFL, but will it work at this level. At the collegiate level, loaded teams like Oregon can exploit multiple weaknesses in an opponents defensive scheme. At the NFL level, those advantages become very hard to find based on the opponent. The Eagles may think they have an advantage playing fast against Washington and wearing down their defense. Yet, it may work the other way around if he is not careful. Washington will start two rookies on defense with safety Bacarri Rambo and CB David Amerson. No doubt you will see Washington use nickel schemes the majority of the time and will be doing a fast paced style of substitution of their own, especially in the secondary, where switching players can ben much easier. Amerson will not get beat deep by Eagle WR Jackson and has tremendous closing speed and quickness. I believe Jackson may become a non existent weapon if Washington uses a bracket coverage scheme against him. Vick is allowed to run the ball freely this season, but he is over 30-years old and just not big enough to absorb the big hits seen in the NFL. Vick may have learned the system in the preseason, but he is not a good reader of decoy schemes that bate him into mistakes. Mo offensive system can prevent a QB from making incorrect decisions leading to punts or turnovers. Now, the biggest advantage I see in this game is the Washington offense against the Eagle defense that has just gone from a 4-3 to 3-4 scheme. Eagles offense will play fast, which implies they will not be able to control the clock and gain an edge in TOP, which is a huge factor in the NFL. The Eagle defense is suspect to begin with and if they have to spend more than 30 minutes on the field, they are the ones that will be gassed - no the Redskins defense. Alfred Morris could have a HUGE night fort those interested in fantasy matchups too. There is no defense strong enough to contain RG III in play action situations. Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Redskins 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Shanahan is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus division opponents as the coach of the Redskins. SIM shows that Washington will gain a minimum of 8 net passing yards per attempt. In past games, Philadelphia is just 1-10 ATS the past three seasons and 14-37 ATS since 1992 when allowing 8 or more net passing yards per attempt. SIm shows that Redskins will gain 150 or more rushing yards. Eagles are 1-6 ATS the past three seasons and 25-55 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 150 or rushing yards. Redskins are 9-0 ATS the past three seasons and 45-9 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 8 or more PYPA and 9-4 ATS the past three seasons and 58-24 ATS since 1992 when they have rushed for more than 150 rushing yards. Take the Redskins.

10* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. if you can land a money line, then I would add a 1* amount to this play looking for the shocking upset. SIM shows a projection calling for the Raiders offense to get between 22 and 28 points. They are 5-0 against the money line (+7.3 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. The Raiders have had not had a steady reliable QN since at least 2007. They may have one in Pryor. He has been taking first-team snaps at the Raiders' practices, according to multiple reports. Matt Flynn, who was competing with Pryor for the starting job, missed practice last week with a sore arm but was available this week. In two seasons with the Raiders, Pryor has appeared in four games. He made one start last year, when he completed 13 of 28 passes for 150 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the season finale at San Diego. Pryor can certainly make big plays and his mobility will diminish the fact that the Raiders are down to their fourth left tackle. I believe you will see RT Khalif Barnes move to LT and newly signed Tony Pashos will take on RT responsibilities. With Pryor under center it also enables the Raiders to exploit a highly suspect Colts defense using some pistol formations and use McFadden in more diverse runnign situations. Establishing the run and using the pistol will setup play action for Pryor to hit a Denarious Moore. He is certainly a bright sport for the Raiders after spending the off season getting focused and working out very hard. Reminds me of that Vernon Davis situation in San Francisco, who was simply lazy, and then finally 'got it'. Moore has the speed, quickness, and athleticism that makes it nearly impossible for any Colts defender to handle him in man situations. Take the Raiders.

10* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they host the Seattle Seakhawks. Interesting that Seattle would be in a tough game the first week of the season when most prognosticators and media talking heads say Seattle will win the Conference and the Super bowl. I actually believe that Seattle will lose this game based on the game situations and SIM projections. Seattle HC Carroll is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a road favorite in all games he has coached since 1992; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in the first month of the season. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by less than 3 points. I like adding a 1.5* amount using the money to the 10* play using the line. So, if you are playing a Dime on the line then add no more than $150 bucks on the money line. The SIM shows that Carolina will have a strong running attack and Cam Newton will be a part of that either by design or by his ability to extend plays. They are projected to have at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, Carolina is a solid 12-3 ATS the past three seasons and 51-15 ATS since 1992 when they have gained at least 125 rushing yards. Carolina si projected to score 22 to 28 points. In past games they are 6-1 ATS the past three seasons and a remarkable 53-13 ATS since 1992 when they score within this range of points. Take Carolina.

10* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they host the Baltimore Ravens in the first game of the 2013-14 NFL season set to start at 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, September 5, 2013. The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by 10 or more points. The media would like you to think that revenge is a factor in this game, but once the game begins, Denver will be led and focused by the 37-year old Peyton manning. No doubt, the team and especially the Bronco fan base remember the last year's playoff game loss to the Ravens. It was a very painful one, where they were leading by 37 seconds and Flacco had the ball on their own 30 yard line. The next play saw Flacco connect on a 70-yard touchdown pass after a blown coverage assignment and the Ravens went on to win 38-35 in double overtime. It is a 16-game season and Denver will have a ton of emotion loaded up for this game. SIM shows projections that Denver will outgain Baltimore by 50 to 100 yards and that Denver will gain more than 400 offensive yards, In past games, Denver is 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons when they have gain more than 400 offensive yards. Baltimore is just 1-5 ATS the past three seasons and 6-22 ATS since 1992 when the have been outgained by 50 to 100 offensive yards. Take the Broncos.

30* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII set to start at 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 3, 2012 The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by six or more points and I am confident in stating that if the projections from the sim become reality on the field, then the 49ers will win comfortably by double digits. The biggest advantages for the 49ers are the running game and the run defense, both of which are superior on both sides of the ball to the Ravens editions. 49ers defense has allowed more than 100 yards in just two of the last nine games. They did allow 176 rushing yards to the Seattle Seahawks in their worst played game of the year December 23, 2012. Against GB they allowed 104 rushing yards on 16 carries, but there were two large runs contributing that total when the game was already decided. Baltimore defense has allowed more than 100 rushing yards in five of their last seven games. The Baltimore offense runs the ball 44% of all plays called this season, rank 12th in the NFL averaging 4.3 rushing yards per attempt, 10th averaging 123.5 rushing yards per game. The 49ers run the ball 51.5% of all plays called and rank second averaging 5.3 RYPC, and third averaging 164.6 RYPG. I just do not see the Ravens being able to contain the power running game generated by the read/option with Gore

30* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on Baltimore in the AFC Championship game set to start at 6:30 PM ET in Foxborough Massachusetts. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-12 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2002. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that is a strong team outgain opponents by 40 to 100 YPG and is now facing an average team sporting a +/- 40 YPG differential and after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. Sim shows a very high probability that the Patriots will gain more than 400 offensive yards. In past games, they are 8-2 ATS this season, 21-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 67-24 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 400 or more offensive yards. Sim shows that Baltimore will be outgained by 50 to 100 yards and are just 0-3 ATS this season, 0-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 5-22 ATS since 1992 when this has occurred in a game. Moreover, Belichick is a solid 37-14 ATS (+21.6 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games; 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) avenging a loss against opponent; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) avenging a same season loss against opponent. Baltimore

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will cover the spread and has an excellent shot at winning and advancing to the NFC Conference Final in San Francisco next Sunday. Lynch is banged up with a foot injury, but will play in this game. The sim shows a very high probability that Seattle will gain at least 125 rushing yards and will score 28 or more points. In past games, the Seahawks are an impeccable 5-0 ATS this season and 14-0 ATS over the past three seasons, and 73-11 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points and are 8-2 ATS this season, 11-3 ATS the past three seasons and 58-26 ATS since 1992 when rushing for greater than 125 yards. Atlanta is 0-3 ATS this season, 2-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 26-90 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-20 record using the money line and has made 34.2 units per one unit wagered since 1983. Play on road teams using the money line in a game involving 2 very good teams outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season and after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The average play has been a +187 dog. Lynch is the key to this game as he has been all season. He has had 11 games rushing for more than 100 yards and I strongly believe he will have 125+ rushing yards in this game. This sets up the rest of the offensive attack for QB Wilson, who has steadily developed into a very good play action passer. Golden Tate has excellent speed and quickness and will have matchup advantages for Russell to exploit. Atlanta

25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Denver Broncos set to start at 4:30 PM ET, Saturday, January 12. 2013. The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will lose this game by eight or fewer points. I had the Ravens as my winning 30* Wild Card Game of the Year release. It stands to reason they would pop up on the simulator radar again this week. I like playing this with a combination bet placing 21* amount on the line and a 4* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-63 mark for 47% winners using the money line and has made a whopping 70.3 units per one unit wagered since 1983. The average play has been a +242 dog play. Play against favorites using the money line that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards per game and after out gaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Here is a second money line system that has gone 30-14 for 68% winners and has made 18.5 units per one unit wagered since 2002. Play on any team using the money line that is a solid offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and now facing a solid defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and after 8+ games and after allowing 9 points or less last game. Several criteria to this system, but the results speak for themselves and the components made sense. Denver

30* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card first round of the AFC playoffs set to start at 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 6, 2013. The simulator shows a high probability that the Ravens will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-17 mark for 73% winners since 2002. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Here is a second supporting second that has produced a 37-13 mark for 74% winners since 1983. Play against any team off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog and with a winning record on the season playing another winning record team. 27 of the 37 winning plays covered the spread by seven or more points and this underscores my strong belief that Baltimore will win this game by double digits. Coach Harbaugh is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 150 or less passing yards in 2 straight games. Colts are just 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Ravens are a solid 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play since 1992. Baltimore rested Ray Rice in Week 17 and they always play near or at peak levels when he is the focus of the offensive scheme. Although the Ravens have not used Rice out of the backfield as a receiver, the matchups almost necessitate this to occur. Rice has tremendous advantages against the Colts linebackers and be used as a targeted play or as a check down when the pocket does break down. Ravens QB Flacco has had an inconsistent season, but has proven to be at his best in the no-huddle scheme. This does not mean a hurry up 2:00 style of scheme, but one where they line up immediately after the ball has been spotted and then call the play based on what the defense is showing. This prevents Colts from freely substituting and can wear down any defensive unit. Colts have a huge defensive weakness covering TE this season. The Ravens are adding to that weakness by using Rice out of the backfield or even lined up as a slot receiver in an empty backfield. Luck has proven to be the real deal and will be an NFL star for years to come. no team in the NFL threw more vertical routes than the Colts, but here again this plays into the strengths of the Ravens. The Ravens safety Reed is one of the best ever to patrol centerfield and he can negate the vertical routes or will make interceptions. It will be very difficult for the Colts to run the ball and stretch the defense with the vertical routes. Take the Ravens.

30* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Washington Redskins in a winner take all game for the NFC East Title. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. I like playing this game as a combination bet using a 19* amount on the line and a 6* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 ATS for 82% winners since 1983. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. 61% of all of the games won covered the spread by seven or more points. I like how the Cowboys defensive unit matches up against RG3 and crew. They key and

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they host the Arizona Cardinals set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by 20 or more points. The playoff picture is in the 49ers hands and with a loss by Green Bay, who is on the road against Minnesota, could secure the No.2 seed in the NFC and the all important first round BYE. The 49ers defense, even without Justin Smith will have a huge day against arguably the weakest offense in the NFL. The 49ers defensive unit ranks third in the NFL allowing 17.3 PPG, second allowing 297 total yards, third posting a 0.271 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing 4.6 YPP, and third allowing 1.9 TD per game. This unit will be matched up against Arizona, who ranks 30th scoring an average of just 15.8 PPG, 32nd gaining 263 YPG, 31st posting a 0.246 points per play ratio, 32nd gaining just 4.1 YPP, and 30th scoring 1.6 TD per game. The 49ers ground gain will be on full display today. They rank second gaining 5.2 YPR, and fourth gaining 157.3 rushing yards per game. Arizona ranks 22nd allowing 4.4 RYC, and 28th allowing 138 rushing yards per game. This strong running game will give QB Kaepernick play action and oodles of time to survey the field. Vernon Davis may not see any action today, but in this situation, it does not matter, who the receivers are on the field. 49ers have big time advantages with the OL and DL lines over the Cardinal units and this will be dominant reason the 49ers win this game big. The sim shows a high probability that the 49ers will score 28 or more points. In past games, where they have achieved this measure of offensive output they are 6-0 ATS this season and 11-1 ATS the past three seasons. The sim shows that they will outgain the Cardinals by a minimum of 2.0 yards per play and in games where this has occurred they are 6-0 ATS this season, 10-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 33-10 ATS since 1992. Take the 49ers.

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Chicago Bears set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Lions will win this game and end their current seven-game losing streak. The Detroit offense is one of the top yards producing units in the NFl, but they have struggled in red zone situations this season. However, this is a team, despite their losing record, that has put out full effort each week and has steadily improved in all facets of offensive execution. The defense is in large part has been problematic throughout the season. Yet, their run defense is vastly better than the one that was gashed for 170 rushing yards in the Week 7 loss to the Bears. The Bears OL has played some of their most inconsistent games of the season in recent weeks and I strongly believe that DC Cunningham will look to untrack Forte and Allen with a steady dose of interior stunts and more zone run blitzes. This does not put them at risk on underneath or vertical play action passes either. If the Bears choose to pass, then these interior stunts get pressure up in Cutler

25* graded play on the the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in a key battle and game for the NFC West supremacy. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game. Wilson has been the first QB to win his first six home games since the 1970 merger. However, his hot streak started after his season low 38.7 QB rating at SF and that sort of performance sticks with any player having to face that same defense again. These are two of the best defenses in the NFL, but the edge definitely sides with the 49ers. The 49ers built a 28 point lead in Foxborough and then held on for a 41-34 win after the Patriots had tied the game with an incredible offensive second half. Safe to say, the majority, if not all NFL teams would have caved in after blowing a 28 point lead to the Patriots, but the 49ers held firm and executed when it mattered most. That game proved to Kaepernick and the entire team that they are truly one of the Super Bowl contending teams. Vernon Davis will again be the focus of the Seattle defense. he has the rare combination of size, athleticism, and elite speed to overwhelm any second level defender. Seattle has a great safety in 6-foot-3 232 pound Kam Chancellor. He will most definitely be highly effective in over the top coverage against Davis, when the 49ers look to stretch the field. The problem is though, that this removes a safety that would be great in run support. This will allow the 49ers to establish RB Frank Gore between the tackles, which in turn will eventually set up man coverage down the seam with Davis. Much has been said about the read-option that has been clicking on all cylinders in Seattle. however, the 49ers, at times, run a variation of that scheme where Gore sets up deep in the backfield and Kaepernick reads linebacker positions and then makes a pre-snap call when to run or use play action. This is what built the 28-3 lead in Foxborough and it will be very successful against the Seahawks. Having Davis run crossing routes, will also open up underneath routes and

This is the first of THREE 25* Titan releases in the NFL and there is also the NBA (18-9 ATS) and College Hardwood (17-9 ATS) plays as well. 25* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Indianapolis Colts set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that KC will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and have a solid shot at winning the game. I like playing this game as a combination bet wagering 20* unit on the line and a 5* amount using the money line. KC may be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but the one thing they do very well is run the ball. This run unit will be matched up against arguably one of the worst run stoppers in the NFL. Moreover, the Colts are just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games when facing good rushing teams averaging >=130 rushing yards per game with the game taking place in the second half of the season since 1992. KC ranks seventh in the NFL averaging 139 rushing yards per game, eighth averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and seventh averaging 31 rushing plays per game. The Colts rank 30th in the NFL allowing 4.8 rushing yards per carry and 24th allowing 125 rushing yards per game. The Colts continue to win despite committing far too many turnovers. They rank 30th with a -1.2 turnover margin per game. Luck ranks 26th in the NFl throwing a pick on 3.19% of all plays run. sim shows a high probability that KC will rush for more than 150 yards,. In past games, the Colts are just 0-3 ATS this season and 4-13 ATS the past three seasons, and 27-80 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 150 or more rushing yards in a game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS for 77% winners since 1983. Play on road favorites after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games and is a good team winning between 60% to 75%of their games and now playing a team with a losing record with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Take the Kansas City Chiefs.

25* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Minnesota Vikings set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Texans will win this game by 10 or more points. I believe this will be a blowout win by the Texans based on the body of research I have studied and analyzed. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 for 75% winners since 2002. Play on a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points that is a good team that is out gaining opponents by 40 to 100 YPG and now facing an ordinary team (+/- 40 YPG) and after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. Houston ranks third best in the NFL averaging 28.1 PPG, sixth averaging 387 YPG, 10th posting a 0.403 points per play ratio, seventh in Red Zone scoring a TD on 58% of all red zone possessions, and fourth averaging 4.1 TD per game. Minnesota defense will have more than its hands full trying to stop the Texans offensive attack today. The Vikings defense ranks 14th allowing 22.0 PPG, 19th allowing 358 YPG, eighth posting a 0.318 points per play ratio, 30th allowing opponents to convert 43% of their third down situations, and 24th allowing 59% Red Zone touchdowns. Houston has a very good defensive front seven that will be able to contain the elite RB Peterson and force the Vikings anemic passing attack to try and make plays to move the chains. Texans DC Wade Phillips is at his best stopping the best NFL RB and he will bring as many as nine men into the box today and has a wide array of zone run blitz schemes that also serve to negate any play action by QB Ponder. I strongly believe this will be a long day for the Vikings. Take the Texans.

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Lions will lose this game by three or fewer points and has an excellent shot at stunning the Falcons. The public and media are making a little much on the fact that with a win, the Falcons clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs and will prepare for the Lions as if it were a playoff type of situation. Problem is that the Lions have several matchups that favor them being extremely competitive in this game and it starts with Calvin Johnson, who has a real shot at breaking the season receiving yards record. He is the best receiver in the game and I have yet to see any single DB be able to handle him on the perimeter. This forces defenses to have safeties

25* graded play on the the New York Jets as they take on the Tennessee Titans set to start at 8:30 PM ET on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will win this game and keep their faint playoff hopes alive. Let

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the San Francisco 49ers set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that NE will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-26 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2006. Play on dogs or pick after a win by 10 or more points and is now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. I really don

25* graded play on the Houston Texans as they host the Indy Colts in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Houston will win this game by 13 or more points. Colts are just 4-14 ATS in road games facing good rushing teams averaging >=130 rushing yards per game in the second half of the season since 1992. Houston is a stout 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Houston had lost only once before last Sunday

25* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game by six or more points. The Eagles are coming off a last play win, their first in more than two months that stopped the longest franchise losing streak since 1942 at eight games. The Bengals gave up 10 points in the fourth quarter and lost to last play Dallas field goal. The win would have put the Bengals a game ahead of the Steelers after they had lost miserably to the Chargers at home. The best schedule for a pro football team after a tough loss is to have a Thursday game. Although a short week, it helps to immediately focus on the next opponent. The Bengals know they control their own destiny by winning this game and then having 11 days to prepare for the big showdown in Pittsburgh next week. The Eagles defense played better in their win over the Bucs, but it was more attributed to poor play calling in key situations and lack of complete execution. The Bengals offense has dominant advantages in many facets of the overall matchup. Bengals rank 11th in the NFL scoring 24.7 PPG, 12th posting a 0.387 points per play ratio, 10th averaging 2.8 TD per game, and 11th converting red zone situations into TD

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Houston Texans set to start at 8:30 PM ET on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 6 or more points. Houston is banged up in the secondary and especially thin at cornerback. The Patriots will spread the field, not surprisingly, and run the entire offense from that base formation. Houston must respect the run with Stephen Ridley even in the spread. He isi a weapon where Brady can use play action and then look to vertical routes in man coverage. He will always have a check down back to the running back. Much has been talked about with J.J. Watt

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Green Bay Packers set to start at 8:20 PM ET and will be televised by Sunday Night Football on NBC. The simulator shows a high probability that the Lions will cover this 6 point spread and have a solid shot at getting back to winning ways. Detroit has lost 4 straight games and have only pushed one of these games losing the other three. The Packers have won six of seven and are 5-2 ATS in those games. We have a situation here where the Packers have no accumulated a huge betting bandwagon while Detroit has very few backers. These are the matchups in the NFL that can produce very shocking results and I fully expect Detroit to play very well tonight. Let

This marks the first of three Top Rated 25* NFL releases for the Sunday card. They will be released at different times Saturday as I prepare each report. 25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they host the Atlanta Falcons in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by three or fewer points and have an excellent shot at winning the game. The Falcons picked Brees five times last week, but know they have to prepare for a duel threat in Cam Newton. Four weeks ago, the Carolina offense reduced the number of reads for Cam and it has paid off big. He has thrown 8 TD with no picks making early decisive reads. Atlanta

Ryan has posted a 41-17-1 ATS mark in All Sports for 71% ATS winners led by a remarkable run in the NFL with a 14-3 ATS bookie slaying good for 82% winners. He went 2-0 ATS Saturday and has won FIVE straight 25* Top rated Titans. His research always shows you why he is betting the game big.


10* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Indy Colts set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Titans will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and have an excellent shot at an upset road win. Given the projections, I like using a combination bet playing a 7.5* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line. Colts are a weak 10-23 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992. This is a history lesson, but it also reflects how winning teams get over valued in the second half of the season, especially when playing an apparent struggling team. Tennessee, for mostly the same reason, is a stout 32-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. The Colts rank 30th in the NFL in turnover differential and the Titans have significant OL and DL advantages on both sides of the ball. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 102-54 record for 65% winners since 1983. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that is a struggling team being outscored by opponents by 7 or more points per game and after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Locker was sacked six times and threw 3 picks in last week

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and I fully expect them to win the game. This is another opportunity use a combination bet playing a 19* amount using the money line and a 6* amount playing the money line. On the surface, it is extremely difficult to put together extending winning streaks in the NFl given the parity of the teams. The Bengals are no exception as their head coach Lewis is 3-14 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of the Bengals. Having DeMarco Murray back in the lineup is a pure godsend for Tony Romo. The Bengals have been largely inconsistent defending the run and I fully expect Murray to have a 90+ yard rushing game. This in turn sets up play action where Romo is clearly at his best. Romo will be able to stretch the Bengal defense and this only augments the advantages Dallas has in the ground attack. The sim shows that Dallas will pass for better than 6.5 net passing yards per attempt. Bengals are winless going 0-6 ATS when they have allowed more than 6.5 net passing yards per attempt spanning the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-11 ATS for 79% ATS winners since 2006. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points winning between 51% and 60% of their games with the current game taking place in the second half of the season. Bengals last three wins have come against Chiefs, San Diego, and Oakland. Not playoff contenders by any means. Now, the tragedy and senseless death of Brown, who had risen from Arena football obscurity, then advanced to the CFL, then became a Cowboy. Josh Brent finds himself having to deal with killing one of his best friends in his life and the Cowboy team will endure a period of grieving. However, sport, of any kind, is nearly always a great place for athletes to begin this process. I thought long and hard about releasing this play given the tragic event and in no means am I making this play presuming that the Cowboys will put on a greater effort because of it. I do believe that once the game begins, the team will be focused on winning the game and the need to continue their chances for a playoff berth. Take the Cowboys.

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Denver Broncos set to start at 8:20 PM ET on Thursday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Denver has done a great job against WR this season. The Raiders Denarius Moore played so badly and had so many poorly executed routes that he was benched. He and Darious Heyward-Bey have elite speed and when play focused are always a threat to the perimeter of a defense. However, the real weakness of the Denver defense is underneath where TE have absolutely torched them this season. Oakland has Brandon Myers, who is going to be a nightmare in coverage and is coming off a 14 reception 130 yard game last week. The Raiders can spread the field with their speedsters on the perimeter and then use Myers and RB Marcel Reece for slant and

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the New York Giants a very important divisional shown in the NFC East set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than three points and I strongly believe they will the game outright. Dallas came from behind and got a huge win over the Eagles Sunday night and the Redskins need to do the same thing to stay in playoff contention with just four games remaining after tonight

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Chicago Bears in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will lose this game by three or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. The Bears run defense has been quite weak allowing at least a hundred yards in five straight games and just last week Peterson got 108 rushing yards on just 18 carries. Russell has been great throwing 12 TD and just 2 picks and just 2 picks in this last 6 games. He is not RG3, but he will not make mistakes that take his team out of games. The Bears are very thin across the OL having lost Spencer and Louis to injuries last week. Moreover, they gave up the third most sacks in the NFL with a complete OL. Many of those sacks were not all the OL fault as Cutler still has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long. So, in my opinion, we have a pick here, where we have better OL and DL and significantly healthier team in Seattle. Seattle did struggle on defense last week in their 24-21 loss at Miami and were gashed for more than 400 offensive yards. Seattle is a perfect 6-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-31 ATS for 70% winners since 2002. Play on road teams off a road loss with the game taking place in weeks 10 through 13. This system has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Take Seattle.

25* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the New Orleans Saints set to start at 8:20 PM ET on Thursday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by six or more points. The biggest obstacle for the Saints making a run toward the playoffs has been their defense, especially at the third level. I strongly believe Matt Ryan will come out in a four WR, 1 RB set spreading the field and isolating the man coverage best suited for what the Saints defense is showing. I also believe they will sue the no-huddle attack as well and not allow the Saints time to make substitutions. The Falcons weapons include Julio Jones, Roddy White, and TE Gonzalez for starters. Nearly every team in the NFL has posted season-high passing and total offensive numbers against the Saints defense. Atlanta has one of the best and deepest offenses in the NFL, so it will be a matter of Ryan simply choosing which matchup to exploit. The sim shows a very high probability that Atlanta will score a minimum fo 28 points. In past games where the Falcons have scored 28 or more points they are 2-1 ATS this season, 15-2 ATS the past three seasons, and 75-18 ATS since 1992. In past games where the Saints defense has allowed 28 or more points, they are 2-4 ATS this season, 4-12 ATS the past three seasons, and 18-84 ATS since 1992. It all adds up to big night for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles set to start at 8:30 PM ET and will be televised by monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game by four or more points. The Eagles, who have lost six straight games and failed to cover in their last five games will continue their demise tonight based on the sim projections. As much as you want Andy Ried to get at least one little piece of good fortune in his life after the last two seasons and the tragic horrid loss of his son, it just won

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take to the road to face the surging New Orleans Saints. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by a minimum of three points. The 49ers run a nearly perfectly balanced offensive attack with 50.4% of their plays called for the run. Still, the rank fourth best in the NFL averaging 6.1 YPP and will going up against the NFL-worst Saint defensive unit allowing 6.5 YPP. In the era of the passing attack, the 49ers rank 31st in the NFL throwing the ball 49.6% of their play, but rank best with a 69% completion percentage. Speaking of passing, the alleged quarterback controversy is vastly overblown in SF. How many coaches, Andy Ried included, would love to have this problem of two highly effective quarterbacks in their stable. Moreover, Alex Smith has shown in similar situations in his career, that he is a team-first member. Smith is also enjoying the best season of his career until he was knocked out with a concussion in Week 10 against the Rams. Colin Kaepernick was excellent Monday Night and if he starts, he adds an even greater amount of strength to the 49er running game. Both quarterbacks benefit from the strong rushing attack of Gore and Kendall Hunter, who are both averaging better than 5.0 yards per carry. Once the ground game is established, then either quarterback will use play action to exploit man coverage in the Saints secondary, who are dead last in the NFL allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree are going to have huge days in my estimation. Sealing the deal here is the fact that the 49ers are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS when facing bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons. Sim shows a very high probability that the 49ers will gain better than 6.0 YPPP and in past games where they achieved this level of offensive success they are 5-0 ATS this season and 13-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Brees is a great quarterback, but he simply can

25* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they host the Atlanta Falcons set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bucs will win this game and that fewer than 50 points will be scored in this game. The UNDER play grades as a 10* play. The most important difference in these two teams is that TB runs a far more balanced offensive attack than Atlanta. TB runs the ball 45% of all plays called while Atlanta is very dependent on the passing selecting to run the ball just 37% of all plays called. Despite, running the ball more, the Bucs rank higher than the Falcons in several offensive categories. TB ranks fourth in the NFL scoring 28.7 PPG, 11th averaging 369 YPG, second posting a 0.473 points per play ratio, and third averaging 6.1 YPP. Atlanta ranks sixth averaging 27.0 PPG, eighth averaging 382 YPG, 10th averaging 0.408 points per play, and eighth averaging 5.8 yards per play. Falcons are just 15-35 ATS when facing solid offensive teams scoring 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season since 1992; 3-12 ATS when facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=6 yards per play in the second half of the season since 1992. Atlanta must try to establish the run and not abandon that scope for at least the first three quarters of the game. The sim shows that the Falcons will rush for 75 or fewer yards. In past games, the Dirty Birds are just 1-3 ATS this season, 2-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 22-69 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 75 or fewer rushing yards. In games where the Bucs have allowed 75 or less rushing yards, they are 3-0 ATS, 6-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 60-23 ATS since 1992. The Bucs have developed one of the better running teams in the league featuring rookie RB Doug Martin. They will be going up against one of the weaker and more undersized defensive fronts in the NFL. Sim shows a very high probability that TB will averaging 5.5 rushing yards per carry or more. In past games where they have achieved this level of rushing success they are 3-0 ATS this season, 8-2 ATS the past three seasons, and 24-11 ATS since 1992. As you can see, both teams need to establish the running game for far different reasons. TB has the clear and significant edge in the ground game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 ATS mark for 75% ATS winners since 2002. Play against favorites after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in two straight games. Take Tampa Bay.

25* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they host the Denver Broncos set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that KC will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also like adding a 3* amount using the Money Line, which is being offered at +430 at most shops. So, if you are in a liminator pool, do not bet on Denver today. Denver is 7-3 on the season and have scored 30 or more points in five straight games. This has served to inflate the betting line to it

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they host the Green Bay Packers set to start at 12:30 PM ET Thanksgiving Day. The Lions season is on the line and they must win this game to keep playoff hopes alive. JAX exploited Houston last week and many observers say that Houston just got caught flat against a miserable team. Yet, you can see what Chad Henne did to the Houston secondary last week and that extends to this week with an ultra-talented QB in Stafford. He has been largely inconsistent at times this season and certainly had his problems last week. He is very resilient though and generally follows a poor game with an outstanding one and no time is better to have a great game then now. One of the matchups I like a lot is Stafford can use TE Pettigrew as a second option check down receiver. The biggest problem this season for the Lions has been dropped passes and even Johnson has had his surprising issues with keeping the ball from hitting the ground. Detroit likes to run an offensive set with two RB and one TE. In this game, the matchups favor them to use one back in isolation with two TE. This will then give more power blocking to the ground attack, enable misdirection plays to develop, and then to give Stafford play action with man coverage on the perimeter with Johnson the target. One thing that will be quite evident in this game will be the steady dose of Arian Foster to pound the Lions defensive front. Detroit has been terrible in maintaining gap discipline with several defenders simply trying too hard to make plays. Knowing that Foster is going to get the ball a lot, actually gives them an advantage to keep gap discipline and have the DE contain the perimeter. There is a big difference in playing run as opposed to reacting to run and I think the Lions defensive front led by Fairly and Suh will do a great job. The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent opportunity win the game. Houston has not played well in domes sporting a 4-13 ATS record. Kubiak is just 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in dome games. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-11 ML record for 77% winners since 1983. Play against any team using the money line in a game involving two excellent offensive teams gaining >=370 YPG after 8 or more games have been played and after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. This play has averaged a +135 dog play and supports my strong belief that Detroit will cover and win the game.

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Chicago Bears set to start at 8:30 PM ET on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 10 or more points. The two best defensive units square off in this significant NFC showdown of division leaders. The Packers have won five straight games and trail the Bears by just 1 game. A Chicago loss, though, puts both teams at 7-3 and after a wild weekend fo results, the NFC playoff berths are up for grabs. Only the Atlanta Falcons can feel somewhat safe with a 9-1 record and three game lead over the Bucs in the NFC South. This game presents as a field possession game with both defensive units looking to force mistakes and give their offenses short fields to operate. SF defense ranks best in the NFL allowing just 14.1 PPG, second allowing 292 YPG, best allowing .228 opponent points per play. third allowing 4.7 yards per play, fourth allowing opponents to convert just 33% of their third down situations. By comparison, the Bears rank second in the NFL allowing 14.8 PPG, fifth allowing 307 YPG,second allowing .234 opponent points per play, fifth allowing 4.9 opponent yards per point, and second allowing opponents to convert 31.6% of their third down situations. Based on these two dominating defensive units, the offensive schemes will be a bit more conservative for the 49ers, but with backup QB Campbell under center for the Bears, they may look to spread the 49er defense a bit. Campbell has a very strong arm and can throw the vertical route pass well. However, he has not started or played enough to have any consistency in his reads and throwing motion. So, the Bears will still use a heavy dose of ball control type run and pass plays. The 49ers have a significant edge in the run game and the Bears defense has given up yards between the tackles this season despite being one of the best defensive units in the NFL. Alex Smith will start tonight now fully recovered from a concussion and obviously the offensive play calling will be to keep him upright and out of harms way by running any play that takes more than 3 seconds to develop. In summary, I find it hard to see the Bears being able to move the chains consistently against the 49er defensive unit. I do see the 49ers winning the field possession game and the TOP stat and that will be the two dominant reasons they win this game by double digits. In this matchup, fantasy owners may want to consider starting Crabtree, who would do well in a ball control type of game like this one presents. Take the 49ers.

30* graded play on the the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the Baltimore Ravens set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will lose this game by three or fewer points and will win the game. I like an optional combination bet using a 20* amount on the line and a 5* amount using the Money Line. Pittsburgh is a solid 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) when playing against a top-level team posting a win percentage of > 75% since 1992; 43-18 ATS when facing good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt since 1992. Baltimore is just 3-12 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992. Steelers are a very resilient team and although the loss of Roethlisberger is significant it is not catastrophic to their chances to win this game. The Steelers are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-9 ATS mark for 77% winners since 2002. Play against road teams where the line is +3

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Indianapolis Colts set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Patriots will win this game by 12 or more points. The Patriots secondary has been attacked in recent weeks, but now they have Aqib Talib ready to start at corner. he is one of the best man coverage corners in the game and will make a significant contribution in this game even if he does not get an interception. At times he can single handedly eliminate a third of the field for the offense to attack and this then allows the Patriot safeties to be able to anticipate more to the opposite side of the field. Running back Ridley will be featured even more than usual in this game and I fully expect him to have his best all-around game of the season. The matchups are right there are so obvious that I can

25* graded play on the New York Jets as they take on the St. Louis Rams set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than three points and have a great opportunity finally play near their potential being away from the choke-hold that the NY media as on them. It truly cannot get any worse for the Jets and they do have a favorable matchup running the ball. Greene has the tools to have a big game against a young Rams defensive line. He can also be sued as a safety valve for either Tebow or Sanchez. Yes, I do think Tebow will see more playing time. The team is in disarray, no doubt, based on published unnamed sources complaining to the NY Daily news and NY Post during the week. But, at the end of the day, these are professional athletes and they play in NYC so I fully expect them to put in a strong effort. Tight end Dustin Keller could and should be targeted often in this game to move the chains and sustain drives. He is completely healthy for the first time this season and either quarterback is accurate enough to hit him on short pass-and-run type routes. Nothing would do more to limit the Rams pass rush than using Keller in this game. The Rams are just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when facing struggling defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season since 1992. Fisher is just 1-11 ATS in home games when facing excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-9 ATS mark for an incredible 82% winners since 2006. Play on road teams off a road loss in November games. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. Take the Jets to make it six straight for this proven system this season.