25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on the NY Giants in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-7 over the last 10 seasons good for 76.7% winners. Play against home teams (NY GIANTS) - terrible rushing team - averaging 70 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons; 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992; Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. Giants are 34-60 ATS (-32.0 Units) in November games since 1992; 31-55 ATS (-29.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992; 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games; 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record; 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 10.

Fundamental Discussion Points The biggest problem for the Giants has been a stagnant running game led by Rashad Jennings that ranks last in the league with a meager average of 68.3 yards per game. Rookie Paul Perkins could see more time this week to help work the clock and protect a defense that yields 277.4 yards passing. Eli threw 3 interceptions last week in a game that the Giants didn't win but that the Eagles lost. Giants are a 1 dimensional team on both sides of the ball and their quarterback is known for throwing interceptions in the regular season. Take Cincinnati Bengals.

25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on the Cleveland Browns in NFL Thursday Night action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game by more than 13 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cleveland is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland has not done well against struggling passing defenses like Baltimore’s edition this season. They are a terrible 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) vs. poor passing defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons; Cleveland is also just 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Browns are yielding 421.7 yards and 30.3 points per game, each ranking 31st in the league.  Baltimore's defense came up big in the win over bitter rival Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to 277 total yards and 36 on the ground to build a 21-0 lead in the third quarter. The Ravens have won 15 of the past 17 meetings. Ravens TE Dennis Pitta had nine catches for 102 yards (both season highs) in Week 2's Cleveland contest. Take Baltimore Ravens.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Seattle in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-23 mark good for 66% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against home teams using the money line (SEATTLE) after 1 or more consecutive losses, when playing on Monday night.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. For this matchup, it clearly shows solid reasons to get on board the Buffalo Bills.

We use numerous statistical measures of efficiencies to identify opportunity. Buffalo ranks 8th in overall offensive efficiency. Seattle, as we saw in their 13 points scored against anemic Saints defense are not nearly as strong. Seattle ranks 18th in overall offensive efficiency and are trending downward in most offensive categories. Both teams have solid defenses with Buffalo given a slight edge with their front seven over Seattle.  Buffalo can definitely stop the Seattle ground attack and force Wilson to try then to move the chains with his arm. Seattle’s receivers have not been able to generate space on their routes and have created forced desperate throws by Wilson. Buffalo is the play. 

25* graded play on the LA Rams as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.2% winners. Play against road favorites (CAROLINA) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rams are 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing less than 3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Fisher is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against NFC South division opponents in all games he has coached since 1992 and he is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of the Rams. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC. Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games. Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Carolina's offense can move with ease, although they've been set back by a league-worst 17 turnovers. Their revamped secondary has turned in a couple of dreadful performances ranking 29th in opponents pass yards/game (286.9). As good as the Panthers are on offense, they have their awful record because of two defensive stats: they allow their opponents more yards/play than their offense gains, and they allow more points/game than their offense scores. Yes, They'll stop the run this game, but so has everyone else against the Rams so it's not an advantage. Take LA Rams.

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Detroit in NFC North action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by at least 10 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-19 over the last 5 seasons good for 70.3% winners. Play on favorites (MINNESOTA) - off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 12-35 ATS (-26.5 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lions are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North. Vikings are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Armonty Bryant received a three-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy, so with the Lions will lose his production recording three sacks in four games. Vikings defense is permitting a league-low 14.9 points. Bradford is better in this situation, recording five touchdowns and zero interceptions in four home games. Stafford was sacked seven times in the last meeting by Minnesota, which swept the season series a year ago. Stafford may have his career high in passer rating, but he hasn't faced this defense yet this year. Take Minnesota Vikings.

25* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in Thursday NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 7 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since 1992 and they are 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992. Atlanta is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Matt Ryan leads the league in both yards (2,636) and touchdowns (19), has thrown for 1,000 yards and five scores in his last three encounters with Tampa Bay and faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks 23rd in the league (274.7 yards per contest). The Bucs won't have nearly the same offensive lineup they had around quarterback Jameis Winston in the first meeting. Doug Martin and Charles Sims, the team's top two running backs, are injured as is No. 2 receiver Vincent Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers (another running back), and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. This will be Atlanta Falcons' game.

25* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the Minnesota Vikings in MNF action  set to start at 8:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a 68% probability that Chicago will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-7 mark good for 86% winners using the money line and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against struggling teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) that are good passing teams (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) and is now facing an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bears are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this game it clearly shows strong reasons to get on board the Bears tonight.

50* graded play on Dallas as they take on Philadelphia in a mammoth NFC showdown set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 10 or more points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 164-89 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 1983. Play against any team (PHILADELPHIA) off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles are just 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) when they allow 150 to 175 rushing yards; 30-62 ATS (-38.2 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards; Dallas is a stout 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points As the technical point out, the key to this win is the play of the Dallas OL, who have arguably put themselves into the discussion of best all-time. Although, much of the talk entering this game is on the solid play of two rookie QBs, it has been the Eagles defense that has led them to a 4-2 record. However, I do not see this Eagles defensive unit holding up for 60 minutes against the constant ground game pounding. The SIM projects that Dallas will have at least 160 rushing yards and this also control the clock and the pace of play. Also, Zak Prescott will have play action pass play opportunities where he can have a few extra seconds to scan the field. Beasley may ned up being a coverage nightmare for the Eagles, who will be forced to have their LB focused on the run first. This opens up quick hit slant routes in space. Take Dallas.

25* graded play on Green Bay as they take on Atlanta in NFC the action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Green Bay will win this game this game.   Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1983. Play against home teams (ATLANTA) after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. GB is a stout 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points While the Packers’ offense may not be what it once was, Green Bay’s defense continues to impress, especially in the front-seven. First-round pick Kenny Clark is currently fourth in run-stop percentage among 3-4 DEs, veteran Mike Daniels is seventh in pass-rushing productivity among the same group, and former first-round pick Nick Perry is sixth in pass-rushing productivity among 3-4 OLBs. I do believe the GB secondary will disguise coverages involving Julio Jones periodically creating the illusion that Jones is in an ‘under/over’ bracket coverage. I also believe GB will bring pressure more than in past games limiting the time for Ryan to connect with Jones on deep routes. Take Green Bay.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on New England in AFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by less than 5 points and have a chance to pull off the upset AGAIN. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-16 since 1983 (4-0 last 5 seasons) good for 73.8% winners and made 27.4 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Another proven system supports this play posting a 33-11 over the last 10 seasons good for 77% winners. Play Against favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - revenging a loss against opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East. Bills are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf. Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC East. Bills are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head-to-head.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Bills will get Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus back to sure up their rushing defense their poor performance last week. Buffalo will look to play well over their level in their disappointing loss last week. I believe too much is being made on the Patriots revenge factor in this game. Rex Ryan coached teams have always given Brady a hard fight. The spread is too high and is climbing. Take the Buffalo Bills.

25* graded play on Arizona as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards over the last 3 seasons; 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing over 350 yards/game since 1992; 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing over 5.65 yards/play since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Arians is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of Arizona. Cardinals are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8. Cardinals are 21-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Cardinals are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. Panthers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Arizona has the second-best defensive rating in the NFL by holding opponents to 289.6 yards per game. The Cardinals haven't surrendered a touchdown in their last two games. Carolina's offense has cranked out 371.5 yards per game for the fourth-best mark in the league. Panthers left tackle Michael Oher stayed in concussion protocol at the beginning of the week, so he may not play. Carolina hasn't been playing well at all and I don't think a bye week will help them. Take Arizona Cardinals.

50* graded play on Houston as they take on Denver in MNF action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Houston will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 mark based on the money line good for 82% winners and has made 22.3 units/unit wagered since 2005. Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, when playing on Monday night. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 34-10 ATS (+23.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points. Denver is a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons. Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The media is making far too much of the return of Osweiler and how GM Elway has had this game circled. Denver's C.J. Anderson has failed to rush for 50 yards in four consecutive games and is starting to lose touches to rookie Devontae Booker. Houston gains 4.1 yards per rush ranking 7 teams higher than Denver, while Denver is known for their defense they rank only 16th in allowing opponents yards per rush of 4.0. Houston also gets called by less penalties as they're ranked 4th in both penalties per game and per play. Denver is ranked 23rd and 25th respectively in those categories. Take Houston Texans to win.

25* graded play on Seattle as they take on Arizona in NFC West action set to start at 8:30 PM ET Sunday. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons and they are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Arizona is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. Arians is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 9 points or less last game as the coach of Arizona. Carroll is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of Seattle. Seattle is 2-0 against the spread at Arizona over the last 3 seasons. Seattle is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 against the division. Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7. Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Cardinals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 7. Cardinals are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Seattle owns the league's No. 1 defense and is third in points (15.6) and rushing yards (74.6) allowed. Quarterback Russell Wilson, who has a passer rating of at least 121.9 in three of the last four meetings with the Cardinals, guided Seattle to a 36-6 rout at Arizona in the regular-season finale in January.  We like the Seahawks in this matchup, despite Palmer being back, we think Arizona still has a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, a unit which led the league in scoring last year. Seahawks DE Cliff Avril has four sacks and a forced fumble in the last four games versus Arizona. Take Seattle Seahawks with the points.

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game by at least 4 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-10 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 41-19 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Oakland comes into this game tied atop the division with the defending Super Bowl champions and takes on a Jacksonville team who has struggled this year. Black Jack Del Rio returns to Jacksonville with a playoff caliber team. Derek Carr has built on what he was able to last season and the Raiders have been able to move the ball and score on everyone so far this year. Blake Bortles and the Jaguar offense have struggled at times this year and really struggle in the running game. This would be the week to get going as the Raider defense has struggled this year. In Oakland’s 3 previous early start games this year the Raiders pulled out the victories. We see this game to be similar as Del Rio comes back to town to beat his old team today.

25* graded play on Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by 11 or more points.

How to best this game I also have a 25* play on the UNDER of this game where the SIM Algorithm projects that fewer than 35 points will be scored in this game. Given the strength of both plays consider adding a 5* reverse parlay wager that pays 4:1.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-27 mark good for 70% winners since 2005. Play on any team (MINNESOTA) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG). Here is a second system supporting the ‘UNDER’ play and has gone 60-26 ‘under’ for 70% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikes are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.; Eagles are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Vikes are a near-perfect 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Eagles come into this game losing two in a row after a hot start. Losing right tackle Lane Johnson really had a big effect on the offensive game plan last week for the Eagle Offense. Keeping tight ends in to block and using Running backs to chip will not help the Eagle offense as they now go against the NFL's best defense. The Vikings come into this game suffocating offenses and are also plus 11 in turnovers on the season. After a good start the Eagles Defense looked a lot like last years’ defense the last two weeks. Sam Bradford returns to Philadelphia playing well for the Vikings completing 70% of his passes for 247 yards per game, but more importantly has not had any interceptions this year while throwing for 6 Touchdowns. Minnesota has been a real money maker the last two years and come into this one covering the first 5 weeks this year and we look for the Vikings to make it 6 straight wins.

25* graded play on the Los Angeles Rams as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 9:30 AM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by less than 2 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Rams are 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points since 1992. Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf. Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Giants are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Rams' passing attack was incredible against the Lions, and quarterback Case Keenum had a career day. Keenum threw for 321 yards and two touchdowns, and at one point he completed 19 straight passes.The Rams will keep that formula going against a Giants passing defense that is ranked 22nd in the NFL and gives up an average of 266.8 yards per game. New York S Nat Behre (concussion) had to be removed from practice on Wednesday and remains in the league's protocol. OBJ suffered a hip pointer in the win over the Ravens and was able to return to the game, but he has been receiving treatment for the injury this week and sat out practice on Wednesday. Eli is a different quarterback when away from home. Take LA Rams with the points.

25* graded play on the NY Jets as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.

How to Play this Game SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-7 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 2005. Play on road teams in October (NY JETS) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are a solid 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards; 62-25 ATS (+34.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play. Arizona is a poor 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons; 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Palmer is off to a slow start with six touchdowns and five interceptions through his four starts. Jets WR Brandon Marshall has gone over 100 yards in seven of his last 11 games. Jets won the previous matchup back in 2012. The Jets can make things difficult for the Cardinals with their 2nd best rush defense in the NFL and Revis most likely coming back to help on the pass defense. Take NY Jets with the points.

25* graded play on Kansas City as they take on Oakland in AFC West action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kansas City will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 over the last 10 seasons good for 81.8% winners! Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OAKLAND) - in conference games, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. Another proven system supports this play posting a 28-9 over the last 10 seasons good for 75.7% winners. Play On road teams (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game since 1992 and they are 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992. Oakland is a poor 23-58 ATS (-40.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing under 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 20-47 ATS (-31.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game since 1992; 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992; 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Chiefs are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Oakland. Road team is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are looking to back Andy Reid coming off a bye week and take the Chiefs in this one. Big Red has been a money maker in this role. The Raiders have a big time offense and Derek Carr is having a big year, but the Defense has been giving up 27 points per game. Recent history shows the Raiders have burned the money in a favorite role at home. Oakland looks to be without their best running back again this week. The Chiefs look to have versatile back Jamal Charles back in full force and this will also be a big lift to the Kansas City Offense. Alex Smith typically stays away from turnovers and runs the system well for the Chiefs and we look for the offense to have an easier time against the Oakland Defense. KC won at Oakland by 14 last year and then by 7 at home. We look for more of the same today. Take KC in this one.

25* graded play on Cleveland as they take on Tennessee in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons; 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Browns are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Browns have beaten the Titans in each of the last two seasons. Tennessee entered this season having gone 1-7 SU at home in both 2015 and 2014, beating only the Jags each year. Cleveland RB Isaiah Crowell ranks third in the AFC with 416 rushing yards and has six rushing TDs in his past nine games. He is also outpacing the Titan's Murray at 5.6 ypc to 5.0 ypc respectively. Tennessee is ranked 24th in the NFL in points per game (18.4) while Cleveland is 29th at 17.4. Knowing that, the spread seems way to high. Take the Browns with points.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Carolina in NFC South action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TB will lose this game by fewer than four points and also has a great shot to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-4 ATS mark good for 86% winners since 2010. Play on underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. Here is a money line system that underscores the vey possibility of a TB win tonight. It has gone 22-5 for 82% winners since 2005. Play against home teams using the money line (CAROLINA) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TB is a solid 61-26 ATS (+32.4 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Carolina has issues on both sides of the ball, scoring only 10 points in a Week 3 home loss to Minnesota before its defense was shredded for 48 points in last week's drubbing at Atlanta. Cam Newton will be out, which significantly hurts the Panthers' chances. Buccaneers WR Vincent Jackson had 10 catches for 147 yards and a score the last time he faced Carolina. Tampa Bay's defense allows less yards per play, a lower pass completion percentage, and are 8th (to Carolina's 20th) in opponent's 3rd down conversion percentage. With the NFL MVP, the Panthers went 1-2, without him, I see the TB having a solid chance. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

25* graded play on the Giants as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Giants will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a strong opportunity to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-8 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt; 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Rogers has not played well this year and his team has been out-statted in all three games. They are coming off the BYE, but this means little when we gather up all of the data from previous years in this situation. Key is that Rogers does not have the personnel to stretch the field against the Giants defense and if he is unable to post better than 6 yards per pass attempt, his team’s chances of winning the game are reduced significantly.

25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on Dallas in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game by at least 4 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-12 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2010. Play on road teams (CINCINNATI) in a game involving two excellent passing teams gaining >=7.3 PYA, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; Dallas is just 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games when they allow 350 to 400 total yards; 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Dallas is 3-1, but have played an easy schedule, especially when compared to who Cincinnati has played (at Jets, @ Pittsburgh, Denver, and Miami). Bengals rushing defense has been extremely good and they will be able to contain the strong Dallas attack today. This forces 3rd and long situations for a rookie QB to execute and that is not a something I see being a good situation for Dallas.

25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Arizona in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SF will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 mark using the money line good for 75% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team using the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. This system has gone 17-4 good for 81% winners over the last three seasons.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SF is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points In the NFL, parity has never been more present than during the first four weeks of this season and it has caused week-to-week reversals of team performances. SF crushed the Rams in Week only to lose three straight games since while the Rams have won three games straight. Neither did anyone expect Arizona to be 1-3 to start the season. However, Arizona has played below their performance metrics established in 2015 and we do not see them rebounding anytime soon. Drew Stanton will be under center tonight and that creates even greater chemistry issues with receivers and timing routes. On the SF offensive side of the ball, protecting Gabbert with balanced play calling has become coach Kelly's M.O. Running back Carlos Hyde has a league-leading five rushing touchdowns in four games. While the 49ers are 32nd in the NFL in passing, teams have not been able to stack the line to stuff Hyde, and San Francisco is converting 40 percent of third downs. The deep speed of wide receiver Torrey Smith keeps most defenses on their toes, even if his season stats of nine catches, 106 yards, one touchdown don't completely tell that story. I do think you’ll see Smith targeted far more often tonight on shorter underneath routes when he is in man coverage and especially in cover zones and man underneath zone schemes. Getting Smith the ball in space creates opportunities for greater yards gained after the catch. As of this moment, SF is actually the better team.

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-6 mark using the money line for 86.4% winners and has made 32.2 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on home teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) that are mistake-free teams averaging

25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Dallas in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Francisco will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-22 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.9% winners and made 26.8 units/unit wagered. Play against road favorites (DALLAS) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is a poor 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992 and they are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. Garrett is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) as a favorite as the coach of Dallas. Cowboys are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. 49ers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games in October.

Fundamental Discussion Points San Francisco has gone 8-2-1 ATS at home vs. Dallas since 1980, while the Cowboys have covered just 48 of 123 on the road off a win, dating back to 1985. Dez Bryant discovered that he is nursing a hairline fracture in his right leg near the knee. Dallas has lost its last six decisions without QB Tony Romo and Bryant in the lineup. Cowboys DE Randy Gregory will serve a 10-game suspension for multiple violations of the substance abuse policy, the NFL confirmed on Thursday. Carlos Hyde is tied with Elliot in yards per rush (3.9) and Hyde is tied for the NFL best four rushing touchdowns. Take San Francisco 49ers with the points.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Denver in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TB will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-37 ATS for 66% winners since 1983. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) off a upset win as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is a money burning 21-50 ATS (-34.0 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, TB is a stout 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Winston threw for 389 yards on 36-for-58 passing in a loss to the Rams last week. Denver is a much better defensive team, but Winston has the mobility to extend plays. This capability is the perfect anecdote for an overly aggressive defense like Denver. If Denver opts not to bring pressure, then Winston has the arm to execute and compete underneath routs in a zone coverage scheme. I am looking for Winston to have another huge day with this one ending in a win.

25* graded play on Atlanta as they take on Carolina in NFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-4 mark good for 87% winners and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team vs the money line (ATLANTA) and is a mistake-free team committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Over the last 3 seasons this system has gone 18-2 making 18.8 units/unit wagered. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Although just three weeks into the season, the Falcons are the top scoring offense in the league at 34.7 PPG. They are also best in yards gained per game (448), best in points per play at 0.545. The point is that Carolina has struggled to stop any of their first three opponents and rank 19th allowing 23.3 PPG. So, Atlanta has a huge advantage on the offensive side especially with two RB playing at a very high level. On offense Newton has been under pressure in nearly pass attempt. LT is a huge problem right now for the Panthers and Atlanta will look to show pressure – not necessarily bring it – from that side of the LOS. Moreover, Benjamin was shutout last week against Minnesota to a corner that gave up 6 inches and 65 pounds to him. So, this line is based on the public perception that Carolina will in no way lose this game and go to 1-3 on the season. Truth is that Atlanta is a vastly better team than they were last year and Carolina was thoroughly outplayed last week and they are not executing with any amount of confidence. Take Atlanta.

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Baltimore in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 94-47 mark good for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Every NFL season we see more teams either underperform or outperform their preseason media expectations. So, we have three teams this season that is undefeated and none of them were on the preseason radar in Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. I had mentioned in articles I published in the preseason a new model I had built that exploits the premise that the NFL is a league of parity; a league that is handicapped by the cap and has done very well in keeping most teams in a competitive bucket. However, I do not see Baltimore as a team that is going to go 12-4 this season, but I do see the Raiders making the playoffs. So, this is not the reason for this play by any measure. Yet, given Baltimore’s great start, it is ramped up the public betting on them and has now given us a SIM graded play that has added value from the inflated line. Raiders have had at least 123 rushing yards in each game. Baltimore has had a max of 84 rushing yards and has immense difficulty moving the ball on the ground. It has been Baltimore’s defense that has stepped up and has given the offense short field scoring opportunities. Sooner or later, this will end and Flacco will be forced to win the game with his arm and I think today is one of those games.

10* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Indianapolis in AFC South action set to start at 9:30 AM ET in London, England. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Jacksonville will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-26 over the last 10 seasons good for 68.7% winners and made 28.4 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indy is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992 and they are a poor 35-58 ATS (-28.8 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Jacksonville is 61-23 ATS (+35.7 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Jaguars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South. Jaguars are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Luck is having some trouble finding healthy receivers, however, and T.Y. Hilton (knee) did not practice on Wednesday while Donte Moncrief (shoulder) could miss another month. The Colts steadily are getting healthier on the other side of the ball and surrendered 22 points in the Week 3 win after giving up a total of 73 in their first two contests. Colts LB Trent Cole was placed on injured reserve with a back injury. Indianapolis CB Darius Butler (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday and is week-to-week. Also factor in the Jaguars will be more comfortable playing in London than any other team in the NFL. Take Jacksonville Jaguars with the points.

25* play on Miami as they take on Cincinnati in Thursday night football action set to start at 8:30 pm ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by less than 4 points and has an outside shot to pull the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 over the last 5 seasons good for 75% winners and made 20.9 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams (MIAMI) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (over 7.3 PYA), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992. Lewis is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against AFC East division opponents as the coach of Cincinnati and he is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as their coach. Bengals are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 4. Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati. Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Ryan Tannehill leads the Dolphins on the ground with 54 yards rushing. He continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker. Cincinnati Pro Bowl TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) is not expected to make his season debut on Thursday, ESPN reported, citing a source. Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick (hamstring) has been held out of both practices this week, leaving his status for Thursday's game in question. Miami DE Cameron Wake recorded three sacks versus Dalton in the last meeting, with the final one resulting in a safety in overtime of a 22-20 win. Take the Miami Dolphins.

25* graded play on the Chicago bears as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in NFL Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot they will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-34 mark good for 67% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) that is a bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bears are a solid 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Dallas is a miserable 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Cutler’s drama is certainly much better suited for the couch in front of his TV where no teammates can see the toxicity he brings to any given situation. Hoyer will be a breath of fresh air for the entire team. He is 8-4 ATS as a career road dog and brings veteran leadership to a team sorely in need of stability. Dallas rookie Elliott has underperformed through the first two weeks and he will not break out in this game either having to go against one of the best defensive fronts in football. The Bears defensive grades have not been good, but are nowhere close to reflecting the overall talent of that unit. With Cutler out, I think you’ll see that defense play with renewed heart and will make it difficult for Prescott to move the chains and sustain drives. I have to admit, that this play appears to be a reach on paper given the recent two weeks of results. However, we have seen countless games where a contrarian approach proves correct and this one is backed first by the SIM Algorithm grading.

25* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on Philadelphia in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 6 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is a solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 8 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 91-21 ATS (+67.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Philadelphia is a miserable 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams come out of the gates at 2-0 the Eagles beating the browns 29-10 and the Bears on Monday night 29-14. The Steelers come in beating the Redskins 38-16 and the Cincinnati Bengals 24-16. Carson Wentz looks like the real deal and the Philadelphia Eagles Defense has been outstanding early this season. This is the week we will get a feel for how much the defense has improved as they face the first real prolific offense. This will also put Wentz in position to make plays to move the chains and not just manage the game focused on field position. We feel this is a low number due to the first couple of weeks results and look to take the Steelers as the go to 3-0 on the season and 3-0 against the number. Although the defense has played well, the Eagles have several starters with injuries that may prevent them playing the entire game. I don’t see them having the depth to contain Antonio and Wheaten has the speed and quickness to overwhelm any man-coverage.

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose by less than four points and has a good chance at pulling off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 93-47 since 1983 good for 66.4% winners and made a big 41.3 units/unit wagered. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons; 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. Zimmer is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games as the coach of Minnesota. Vikings are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Vikings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win. Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.

Fundamental Discussion Points Quarterback Sam Bradford was excellent in his Vikings debut, completing 22-of-31 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 17-14 win over Green Bay. Bradford can lead this offense even without Peterson, who was only gaining 1.6 yards per carry. Carolina committed four turnovers last week and aren't living up to expectations so far this year. In a 2014 victory over Carolina, the Vikings kept Newton under control. He completed 18 of 35 passes for 194 yards, holding a 65.7 quarterback rating.Through 2 games the Vikings' defense ranks 5th in both opponents yards/play and opponents yards/rush. Minnesota WR Stefon Diggs’ 285 receiving yards are the second-most through two games in Vikings history, trailing only Gene Washington’s 324  in 1969. Take Minnesota Vikings.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Arizona in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. The current money line is +175, which provides a significant financial opportunity.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is also just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more; 2-13 against the money line (-17.5 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. Buffalo is a solid 15-5 against the money line (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points   Rex Ryan’s defensive mind always presents preparations for any opponent. His use of cover-0 schemes with seemingly a multitude of pre-snap looks creates read problems for even the best QBs. I do strongly believe that the Buffalo defense will be a significant factor in a Bills win today.

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Houston Texans in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game. Yes, this does factor in the all of the injuries and without Gronk playing.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (NEW ENGLAND) off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards since 1992; Patriots are a remarkable 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) as a home underdog;

Here is a money line system that under scores the strength of this play and has produced a 21-4 mark for 84% winners since 1983. Play against any team using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, when playing on a Thursday.

Fundamental Discussion Points NE is by far the best managed team in the NFL and arguably the best ever in the history of the NFL. Whether you like them or hate them, you have to give credit to how the program is run from a team first attitude. So many times when the Patriots looked wrecked by injuries a new star appears on the scene or a 3rd string player steps and does his job, which in turn allows teammates to make even bigger plays. That unity is still there and based on the Algorithm projections I am confident the Patriots will move to 3-0 on the season.

35* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Bears will win this game by at least 7 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles have been a money losing 3-22 ATS (-21.2 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) when they allow 400 or more total yards. Fox is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached. Week 1 was a great debut for Wentz and the Eagles as they cruised to an easy victory and covered by double digits ATS. However, they are a young and inexperienced team at HC, QB, and other positions. Rookie NFL HC off a Week1 win and are on the road in Week 2 are just 1-12 and when they are off a double-digit ATS win in Week 1 are a horrifying 1-11-1 ATS

Fundamental Discussion Points Cutler is an experienced QB that has trouble all his career establishing consistency on a week-by-week basis. However, we do know he responds especially well after a horrid drubbing and we believe he will do just that against the Eagles.

A matchup to watch is how the Bears handle Eagles DT Fletcher Cox. Kyle Long is one of the best RG in the league and he is one of the few that can handle Cox by himself. By not needed a double team to block/pass protect Cox, the Bears RBs will be running far more short slants, ins, and outs that Cutler can hit in space.

Eagles OL is certainly within the second-best quartile in the NFL. They added Brandon Brooks from the Texans, who has improved his pass grade in every year and is one of the better run blocking guards in the NFL. However, this unit will be matched up against arguable a top-3 defensive front and one that will look to play far better than they did in Week 1. Having a rookie starter at QB, you will see the Bears lining up all sorts of schemes to bring confusion to his QB reads/progressions and will certainly bring heat from varying spots on the field and at different times after the snap.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Arizona in NFC action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will keep this game within 4 points and has an outside shot to pull off an upset.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-30 over the last 10 seasons good for 68.4% winners and made 32 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) after scoring 30 points or more last game since 1992; 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992; is 5-3 straight up against Arizona since 1992. Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 2. Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. Cardinals are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Fundamental Discussion Points Arizona rookie Williams got burned a handful of times by the Patriots and Winston surely will be looking to pick on him if he's still in the starting lineup. Winston was named the NFC's Offensive Player of the Week for his 281-yard, four-TD performance in the opener. He threw those 4 TDs to 4 different receivers. Tyrann Mathieu is easing his way back after undergoing major knee surgery in the winter. He's playing more as a straight center fielder in the secondary; not as the unpredictable blitzer and wild tackler and ball hawk the NFL is used to seeing. This lack of play-making ability against Winston and his offense will prove to be a difference. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

25* graded play on New England as they take on Miami in AFC East Divisional matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game by at least 11 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. NE is a solid 45-14 ATS (+29.6 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow less than 75 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 46-9 ATS (+36.1 Units) when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points ­Bill Belicheck and the coaching staff did an outstanding job last week in the desert preparing Jimmy Garrapolo in his first start for Tom Brady (Deflategate Suspension). We now look for a similar performance at home in a division game against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were in a physical game last week in Seattle. The offense struggled against the Seahawks and the Defense gave up a late score to end the game. The Patriots get back more offensive weapons for this game mainly Rob Gronkowski and we don't see how the Miami offense will keep up with the Patriots. Take New England and lay the 6 1\2.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on the NY Jets in AFC East action set to start at 6:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are a miserable 2-9 against the money line (-8.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; Buffalo is a stout 17-8 against the money line (+11.3 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt and are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt

Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams start the season off with losses and it already a[ears that the Patriots – even if Brady did not play one game – would easily win the Division. However, this is just Week 2 and getting to 0.500 may prove to be just what Buffalo needs in order to contend for a wild card berth.

Buffalo significantly underperformed it’s DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) in Week 1 and teams that have missed the average by two standard deviations or more from their mean have a very strong tendency to outperform their mean in the following week. This same concept also applies to Buffalo’s offense so we have a powerful combination of a team, in needs of a win at home, having played horrid football in the previous week. Buffalo will get much better use of their ground attack with McCoy and give Tyrod a chance to use play action pass to open up the middle of the field and gain that extra second to execute plays. TE Charles Clay had an excellent game in Week 1 and I expect him to be a key ingredient to this win tonight.

25* graded play on San Diego as they take on Kansas City in AFC West action set to start at 1:00 PM ET Sunday. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Diego will lose this game by less than 4 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 61-30 over the last 10 seasons good for 67% winners and made 28 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is 60-33 ATS (+23.7 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992 and they are 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. McCoy is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a road underdog as the coach of San Diego. Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Chargers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in September. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points The opening week of the NFL regular season is about gauging public perception and taking advantage of what might well be an inflated spread. I think this game falls into the category. The Chiefs are widely perceived as a team that has a great chance to get back to the playoffs for a second straight year. The Chargers are widely considered to be the likely last-place team in the AFC West and one of the weakest entries in the league. But in the opening week of the season, one of my favorite maneuvers is to zero in on divisional road dogs that were below .500 the prior season, particularly if they’re facing an opponent that was a playoff team. The rationale here is that the favorite will be priced a little too high based on that public perception and that creates value on the underdog. Fact is, if you check out the results of Week One games that have fit this scenario, taking the points has been extremely profitable.

25* graded play on Chicago as they take on Houston in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a great shot at getting the upset win too. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Chicago is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; Fox is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in all games he has coached

Fundamental Discussion Points Chicago’s biggest asset and a vastly under rated group is their defensive front seven. 2016 additions Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Akiem Hicks, Leonard Floyd, and Jonathan Bullard were infused with Eddie Goldman and Pernell McPhee from last year to complete a very strong group that is perhaps one of the top-3 in the NFL. Freeman was the top graded LB against the run last season and now they add Travathan, who also ranked in the top-10 last season. Pushing the pocket from the interior shouldn’t be a problem with Hicks, who managed 18 pressures (seven knockdowns) a season ago, and Jonathan Bullard lined up at end. The latter’s skill-set appears well-suited to the five-technique position. This is the big key for this matchup and I do strongly believe that the Bears defensive front will eliminate Houston’s ground attack and subsequent paly action pass plays, whose success is dependent on an established ground game. Houston is one of the most run dominant teams, but with Osweiler under center, Chicago will look to force him to move to the chains with his arm and decision making, which was largely inconsistent at best in 2015. Take the Bears.

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. JAX is a solid 61-22 ATS (+36.8 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Further, JAX is 21-10 against the money line (+12.8 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play.

Fundamental Discussion Points JAX is the most improved team in the NFL based on our grading and I also like taking the ‘over’ in Season WINS. This team has the potential to make the playoffs or at least be in playoff contention for the majority of the season. They are also in a division that is wide open with no dominant team in its’ mix. After acquiring up to five new defensive starters in free agency and the draft this offseason, both established and young talent on the defense will augment an improved offense — one that rose from the lowest-graded unit in 2014 to 16th in 2016. Bortles improved last season and is set to take his game to a higher level benefitting from the best WR duo in the league in Hurns and Robinson. The Packers are obviously a very good elite team. However, their LB and defensive front 7 are not even in the top half of the league. Bortles will get the run established and then can use play action where he will have plenty of time to scan the field and make solid decisions. Jax wins this one.

25* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Inter-league NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these plays combination wagers using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. The money line, however, must be +140 or higher to validate the risk-reward profile. If it is not at level then simply wager a 25* amount using the line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 mark good for 86% winners since 2005. Play on home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is 14-1 against the money line (+12.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+6.8 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Denver is also 13-1 against the money line (+12.5 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points I think we all must remember the major matchup that saw Denver dominate Carolina in SB 50. Carolina tackle Remmers against OLB Von Miller. That matchup is the same, but both teams are significantly different from last years SB 50 rosters. Still, it will be that matchup to watch and one that Miller will again dominate. Over the 19 SB 50 snaps that the two met in pass-block/rush situations, Remmers held up entirely on just three occasions. That’s roughly 15 percent of the snaps. Think about that for a second: When left alone with the assignment of blocking Von Miller, there was only a 15 percent chance that Remmers was going to get the job done. There were five other snaps in which either Miller was reading Cam Newton on the rush and playing contain, there was a legit double-team, or the ball came out too fast for any kind of winner or loser to be determined. Even if we fold all of those into the “win” column for Remmers, he escaped unbeaten on only 42.1 percent of his snaps against Miller. The problem the Denver Broncos present is that they have other threats to contend with. Even if you take Miller’s pressures out of the equation, the Broncos’ defense racked up 33 total pressures in the last meeting, with five different players amassing four or more individually. If you eliminate Miller entirely from the pressure column with a combination of strategies, you still need to find a way to block DeMarcus Ware, Shaquil Barrett, Derek Wolfe, Shane Ray, and the rest of the defense. Take Denver. The Panthers O-line alone gave up 31 pressures in the Super Bowl, and on plays in which Newton was pressured, he completed just 35.3 percent of his passes for a passer rating of 53.6.

50* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50 set to start at 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 7, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 38* play using the line and a 12* play using the money line.

As many of you know, I have advised using the alternate lines when playing dogs so increase the total ROI of not just the play, but also for the entire season. The Super Bowl presents an even greater amount of these lines. I like adding making a triple combination wager using a 34* play using the line, a 9* play using the money line, and then a 7* play using the adjusted line Denver -3 ½ at + 280. Also, intriguing is adding a 5* amount Denver 7 ½ that yields +440.

Betting public is pushing the Carolina band wagon during week 1 of wagering. Lines opened at Carolina -4 and now most establishments have a line of -6. There has been talk of the ‘smart’ money looking to buy back their -4 Carolina bets at -6 to play the middle, but 5 is just not a good number. Only 2% of games played this season ended with a 5 point differential. So, I am expecting this line to continue higher and may even reach 7 points during this week. This is why I am releasing this Super Bowl play early so that you can wait and take advantage of the line movement. This is not because I think, we will need the extra 1 2/ point or so, just to win. It is rather that, if there is an opportunity to get an even more favorable line, then why not.

In terms of prop bets, I like making 3* plays on the following opportunities. Play over 19 ½ Denver first downs; Over 5 converted Denver third downs; Over 2 ½ Denver sacks. First player to score a TD play a 1* amount on Vernon Davis at 40:1 and D. Thomas at 7:1.

Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 21-6 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1983. Play against any team vs the money line (CAROLINA) average rushing team gaining between 3.5 to 4.5 YPR facing a good rushing defense allowing

50* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Divisional Round of the 2016 NFL playoffs set to start at 1:05 PM ET, Sunday January 17. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. I always require a +145 reading from the money line to validate these combination wagers. It is very unlikely that we will see a surge of volume type wagers on Carolina that could push this line back to ‘3’. So, simply play it as a straight 35* wager using the line only. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. There are other game situations, but I want the focus of this report squarely on the Seattle defense. It is a fact that Carolina ranks first in scoring offense in the NFL and 2nd in rushing yards per game. However, the Seattle defense ranks first or second in the majority of defensive categories in both rush and pass stats. They rank first in scoring defense, rushing yards per game allowed, and 2nd in passing yards allowed. Seattle LB Wagner and Wright are playing at a very high level as are DBs Chancellor, Thomas, Sherman, and Shead. Sherman may bot even be their best corner right now and that certainly is an amazing situation. I do see Cam extending plays, but Seattle has the ability to minimize separation and still defend well. Then there is lure of Pete Carroll. Whether you like him or not he is arguably the Belichick of the West and he always uses an extremely creative game plan that focuses on taking away the strengths of the opponent. I’m not saying that Carolina and Newton will be eliminated by the defense, but they will struggle to move the chains, especially on third down situations where Seattle can bring their full maximum strength in either hidden zone blitz schemes or nickel coverages in either a sky zone spy or under-man cover 2 scheme. Take Seattle.

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they host the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs set to start at 4:30 PM ET January 16, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by more than 7 points. Over this past season there has been a significant growth in alternative line betting. Many of you are quite familiar with my combination wager that uses line and money line for DOG releases. In this case you need access to the adjusted lines, which would show Patriots -13 1/2 +240 and KC +13 1/2 -320. The other adjusted line will show NE +3 1/2 -340 and KC -3 1/2 at + 260. With my work, you will ALWAYS be on the dog payouts. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the -13 1/2 Patriots +240 line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-15 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 2010. Play on favorites (NEW ENGLAND) that are excellent offensive teams gaining >=370 YPG and are now facing an average offensive team gaining between 295 to 335 YPG, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons. Looking at some power trends notes that Patriots are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games facing good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last three seasons. Patriots are also coming off a very weak performance in their season finale. However, they are resilient posting a 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game since 1992. Belichick also has a great track record noting a 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after gaining 4 or less yards/play in their previous game. Now, let’s take a look at some money line situations. If you want to play this game as a straight money line play, I have no problem with that. I would suggest making the exposure the same as a 35* line play. So, if the Patriots are -250, then you would wager a 14* play. Should you lose, then the loss would be 35* amount (14*2.5 odds). So, KC is a money losing 3-22 against the money line (-22.0 Units) in road games facing good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992; Patriots are a near-perfect 15-1 against the money line (+14.3 Units) vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. KC ranks 4th best in the NFL gaining 4.6 YPR, 6th gaining 129 rushing yards per game, and 3rd with 1.2 rushing TD’s per game. However, I strongly believe that the Patriots defense will minimize this ground attack and force KC to try and move the chains through the air. KC ranks 30th in the NFL gaining just 202 passing yards per game. Belichick has always been a master at taking away the strength of the opponent and this is the matchup he will be fully focused on. Patriots with rest and Brady under center will be just too much fort KC to contain for 60 minutes. Take the Patriots.

35* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the KC Chiefs in the AFC Divisional playoff set to start at 4:35 PM ET. If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Texans. As a result, in any given season better than 80% of graded plays are DOGS in the money line sports of the NHL and MLB. I have proven time and time again, that it is imperative to identify DOGS in these sports that win consistently over the course of a season. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. However, the ML must be at +145 for the combination wager to be validated. If the ML is below +145, then simply wager a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-11 mark using the money line for 79% winners. Play against road teams using the money line (KANSAS CITY) good passing team gaining between 6.7 and 7.3 PY/Attempt and is now facing  an average passing defense allowing 5.9 to 6.7 PY/Attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 8-1 against the money line (+8.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. Take the Texans.

35* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they host the NY jets in a very important game with direct consequences for the NY Jets playoff aspirations. This game is set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Buffalo Bills will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 263-104 record for 71% winners and has made 100.6 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against road teams vs. the money line (NY JETS) off an upset win as a home underdog, after the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a solid 15-5 against the money line (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt; 52-29 against the money line (+20.8 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Jets are a money losing 9-20 against the money line (-17.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Here is an ATS system that has gone 27-6 ATS for 82% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (NY JETS) off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. Take the Buffalo Bills.

35* graded play on JAX as they take on Houston in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-21 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 2-11 against the money line (-14.9 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 4-11 against the money line (-15.8 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Take Jacksonville and expect the upset win.

35* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Denver Broncos in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, for the ROI and risk-reward profile to be validated, you must get at least +145 on the money line. I am seeing +160 and even +167 currently, which is higher than you would normally see with a +3/+3 ½ line. This reflects the publics’ excessive backing of the Broncos, which also supports this play on the Bengals. I monitor the betting flows at seven major books and whenever you get a consensus above 70%, it produces a red flag reflecting irrational exuberance for that team. This fact only serves to reinforce the algorithm. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-17 mark good for 73% winners and has made 26.2 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on any team using the money line (CINCINNATI) off a road win, when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bengals are a solid 10-2 against the money line (+9.8 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards this season. Denver has been a weak 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; Lewis is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half as the coach of Cincinnati.

35* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Green Bay will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 ATS for 81% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) average passing team gaining between 5.9 to 6.7 PYA and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 5.9 to 6.7 PYA after 8+ games, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Green Bay is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons. Further, we see that Green Bay is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) facing good rushing defenses allowing

35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM EWT. I also have a 25* play on the ‘OVER’ in this game. So, play that for a 25* amount and also add a 5* play using the Falcons on the Money Line and the ‘over’. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at upsetting the Panthers and ruining their perfect season. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-3 ATS mark good for 90% winners since 2005. Play on any team (ATLANTA) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Falcons are a near-perfect 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

35* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Detroit will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, for the ROI to be validated for the added money risk, a line of +145 must be available. If it is not, then simply wager a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-5 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) off a road loss, with a losing record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.  Saints are just 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Saints have arguably the worst defense in the league. Detroit has an average offense, BUT ranks best in the NFL with 69% red zone scoring. Taske the Lions.

50* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by 7 or more points. There has been  an increase of adjusted lines this season in the NFL and NCAA football cards. In past years, we would see adjusted lines for playoff games and some of the top bowl games, but never on a weekly basis. So, if you can get an adjusted line then consider making a 40* play using the line and then add a 10* play using the -10 ½ line for a greater ROI on this wager. Your adjusted line may not be – 10 ½ and could be lined at -11 1/2  and will give you at least +225 return. This is by far the best team the Eagles have faced this season. They rank 2nd in scoring offense and best in the NFL gaining 418 YPG. Moreover, the Eagles defense has been lit up over the past 5 weeks and for the season rank 27th allowing 386 YPG. ARZ passing game among the best in the NFL ranking third gaining 299 PYPG and first averaging 8.5 yards per pass. Eagles defense ranks 24th allowing 259 passing yards. I just do not see how the Eagles will hold up against this offense. They key stat is Arizona’s best ranking in yards per pass, which shows they can successfully stretch a defense vertically. This is by far the greatest weakness in the Eagles defensive secondary. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards. Eagles are a weak 3-20 ATS (-19.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the Arizona Cardinals.

35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Green Bay packers in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. This combination of wagers serves to maximize the ROI of this investment on the Raiders given the probabilities the lines present and also what the SIM projects to occur. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-9 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (GREEN BAY) that are average defensive teams allowing between 18 to 23 PPG and now facing a below average defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG, after allowing 9 points or less last game. Here is a second system that has gone 67-36 ATS for 65% winners since 2005. Play against road favorites (GREEN BAY) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; Del Rio is 11-4 against the money line (+12.5 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached. Take the Raiders.

35* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC action set to start at 4: 25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS for 72% winners since 1983. Play on road teams (DALLAS) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Green Bay is a very weak 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. Take Dallas.

35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Falcons will lose this game by fewer than 8 points and have a great sot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-2 ATS mark good for 93% winners since 2005. Play on any team (ATLANTA) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I absolutely love this algorithmic defined play. Atlanta actually gains more yards per game on offense than Carolina, but they fail to score points consistently during this losing streak. Falcons rank 5th in yards per game (387), but just 18th in points per play (0.341). Carolina ranks 14th in offense (361) and second in PPP (0.461). Falcons rank 2nd best in the NFL converting 46% of all third down conversions. Take the Falcons.

35* graded play on the Rams as they take on the Lions in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-6 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 1983. Play on home underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. St. Louis is a solid 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards since 1992. Rams offense has struggled to score points this season ranking 31st in scoring , 31st in points per play, and league worst 32nd in third-down conversions. However, they are facing a vast weak Detroit defense that ranks 28th in scoring defense, 28th in points per play allowed, and 25th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Take the Rams.

35* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in AFC action action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a small probability that they can win the game in a shocking upset. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-8 mark good for 78% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (SEATTLE) an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG, after allowing 9 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Fully aware of the QB situation in Baltimore, BUT I do believe in the projections from the SIm and believe that Baltimore will play a fantastic game on both sides of the ball. Plus, the public is all over the Seattle Seahawks, which is a significant positive for us being on the book side. Take Baltimore.

35* graded play on Arizona as they take on Minnesota in a critical NFC matchup set to start at 8:25 PM ET and will be televised by the NFL network. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by 13 or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these opportunities combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the adjusted line. This season there has been a surge of offerings featuring the adjusted spreads moving the line 7 ½ points in either direction with a subsequent change in the ‘vig’ For this play consider making a 30* play on Arizona and then add a 5* play using the adjusted line, which I see coming in at 14 ½ +180 or possibly -17 ½ +225. Whatever is put on the board later today at your book is a valid opportunity. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards; 23-4 ATS (+18.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 150+ yards; 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1.5 to 2 yards/play. Based on my SIM generated team grading, the Arizona Cardinals are now the best offensive team in the NFL. As a team, Arizona also ranks best in the passing game and have the best corp of receivers. Minnesota is certainly a solid team, but their biggest weakness is in pass coverage. So, I just do not see Minnesota containing this offense and that Arizona will score often. Take Arizona.

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 11 or more points. Yes, they are banged up, but the Patriots have enough talent to exploit an Eagles defense that has yielded 45 points in two straight games each. The line has dropped to 7 ½ from 10 given the injury news, especially the news that Gronk is out. But, the Eagles may be without their leading tackler on the defensive line, who has 40 solo tackles. He has a knee injury that is swollen and he will not be at 100%, so you can expect the Patriots to exploit that situation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-26 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 1983. Play on any team (NEW ENGLAND) that is a good team outgaining opponents by 0.4 to 1 YPP and is now facing an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles are just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 season; Patriots are a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 44-13 ATS (+29.7 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards. Patriots are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Take New England.

35* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the Houston Texans in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game by at least 6 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo is on the ropes and needs a win to continue having faint hopes for the playoffs. Media in Buffalo has begun to attack Rex Ryan and some of the defensive lineman have complained about having to drop into coverage. That’s certainly not good news, but Ryan is a veteran coach, who was loved in Buffalo at the start of the season. So, I do believe the home crowd will be quite supportive and I fully expect a huge effort and easy win based on the SIM algorithm projections. Houston has won four straight games and has the 6th best defense in the league gradings database. Yet, Buffalo has a vastly better offense and with a 100% Sammy Watkins finally contributing to that offense, Houston will not be able to contain the Bills offense today. Take Buffalo.

35* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on the Detroit Lions in NFC North action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. One mandate though is that you get at least +145 on the money line. If not, then simply play a straight 35* play on the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-18 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1983. Play on any team (DETROIT) after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is a solid 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games when they gain 350 to 400 total yards; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season. Detroit is coming off their best offensive performance in several seasons against a dysfunctional Eagles squad on Thanksgiving Day. What has gone largely unnoticed is the Lions defense that has a very good run stop and pass rush grade. Where Rogers has struggled this season is when pressure comes up the middle preventing him from stepping up and completing passes, especially routes over the middle of the field. This is an area that Detroit’s pass rush can excel at tonight and one that I believe will be a huge factor in the Lions pulling off the upset.

35* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Cleveland Browns in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line as long as you can get +145 or higher. My wagering model mandates that a =145 money line be used so that all risk/reward parameters are validated as sound investment objectives. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-6 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 1983. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) cold team having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ravens are a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards; 27-7 ATS (+19.3 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing yards/attempt; Browns are just 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 100 to 125 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they rush for less than 75 yards over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they rush for 50 to 75 yards over the last 2 seasons. Ravens are starting without Flacco under center for the first time in eight seasons. Yet, the bigger story is the demise of Manziel. After reportedly promising coach Mike Pettine he would act on his best behavior over the bye, Manziel was caught on video reciting profane rap lyrics while holding a bottle of champagne at a club in his native Texas. Citing a breach of trust, Pettine announced Tuesday that the former Heisman Trophy winner would be behind McCown and Davis on the depth chart. By contrast, Flacco had started 137 games including playoffs and now a solid veteran in Matt Schaub will get a start. This will be his first start since Week 17 of the 2013 seasons. This is where I strongly believe the Ravens have a huge advantage in this matchup. The Ravens season has been marred with substantial number of inuries including Forsett last week with a broken forearm. Yet, I absolutely love rookie Javorious Allen and I expect my SIM projection to prove more than correct with him gaining 100+ rushing yards. This will then allow Schaub to utilize play action to complete high percentage throws. Take the Ravens.

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on Denver in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by six or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. This is a slight favorite wager though, so if you have access to the alternate lines then consider making a 27* play using the line and then a 8* play using the alternate line. Now, the alternate line is 7 ½ points more when playing favorites o less for dogs. So, when we play these combination wagers, we are always making our play less of a dog or more of a favorite and getting paid at least +200 for that added risk. If you do not have an alternate line, then simply play it as a 35* play using the line at your best book. Based on my SIM algorithm grading, the Patriots are the best team, by far, in the NFL. Carolina now holds the second spot with Arizona and the Broncos in third and fourth respectively. However, Denver is the only team with a negative grade on offense and an offense that ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Patriots hold the top offensive rank, but only marginally, with Arizona, Atlanta, and the Bengals in close pursuit. The Patriots are excellent in run defense and pass coverage grades. I agree that the Denver offense will be better with Osweiler under center, but this Patriots defense is the worst matchup scenario for the him to face tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a a 29-3 mark using the money line good for 90% winners since 2005. Play on favorites using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) that are excellent passing team gaining >=7.3 PYA and are now facing a good passing defense allowing between 5.3 and 5.9 PYA and after 8+ games of the regular season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; Denver is a money burning 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take the Patriots.

35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Minnesota Vikings in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 4 points. I also like the ‘OVER” for a 25* graded play as defined by the algorithm. I would also recommend a parlay not to exceed a 5* amount using the Falcons + ‘over’. Atlanta is the third best offensive team in the NFL based on my SIM grading and are 4th overall in total team grading. Atlanta is trailing the undefeated Panthers and are in the midst of the wild card playoff race. In my opinion, they are by far the best team at 6-4 and are certainly flying under the radar. Matt Ryan is not making flashy headline news, but he has the 5th best QB rating in the NFL trailing only Palmer, Brady, Newton, and Roethlisberger in that order. He is one of two QB in that top-5 list with positive grades for pass and run grades. He is not a fast runner by any means, but has a great feel for the pocket similar to Brady that can extend plays. Vikings certainly have a solid defense, but I fully expect Ryan to make quick decisions and also use Coleman (replacing Freeman) in short passes in the flat. Ball control and moving the chains will the dominant these for the Falcons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-4 mark good for 88% winners using the money line since 2005. Play against underdogs using the money line (MINNESOTA off 3 or more consecutive ‘unders’, an average offensive team scoring between 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a good offensive team scoring between 23 to 27 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikings are just 1-7 against the money line (-8.0 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards over the last 3 seasons. So, Take the Falcons for a 35* play, the ‘over’ for a 25* play, and a 5* parlay Falcons + ‘OVER’.

35* graded play on the Saints as they take on the Texans in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Saints will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 26* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-5 mark good for 84% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) off a road loss, with a losing record. Here is a second system that has gone 76-35 ATS for 69% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) off a road loss, in November games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a near-imperfect 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Saints offense has several matchup advantages over the Texans defense. Saints defense is weak, but is going up against one of the worst offenses in the NFL based on my SIM gradings. Big day for Brees.

35* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC Thanksgiving Day action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by at least 4 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. It is a bit different fort this play. If you have access to the NFL adjusted lines, then consider making this a 28* play using the Dallas at pick-em and then adding a 7* amount using Dallas at -7 ½ which is returning +240/250 prices. If no adjusted line is available then simply play Dallas as a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games; 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Before getting injured Dallas was 2-0 with Romo under center and now 3-0 after last week’s win. Take Dallas.

35* graded play on the Philadelphia Eagles as they take on the Detroit Lions in the first game of the Thanksgiving triple header. I also have a 25* play on the ‘UNDER’ so I also like playing this as a 7* Parlay with the Eagles and the ‘under’. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Eagles will win this game. They have played horribly poor in their last several games with the last one being a complete debacle. I released T-Bay as a 10* graded free play on this site and the algorithm did show a solid probability that T-Bay may win the game. Well, they exceeded my expectations by a large margin. Now, I have seen this sort of trend before in my 21-years of handicapping sports. Local Philadelphia media is in a frenzy calling for Chip Kelly’s head and essentially saying the season is lost – despite the fact that they are still in divisional contention in the extremely weak NFC East. Going on the road is the absolute BEST situation for this team as it gets them away from the media vultures. It is a concern that we have seen opposing defensive players stating that they knew what was coming and could defend the Eagle offense well. Yet, these are players, who have a ton of pride and a ton of desire otherwise they would not be playing the NFL. Yes, of course there are the idiots and clowns that are exceptions, but no pro likes to lose as badly as this Eagles team did at home. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles are a solid 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points; 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games when they gain 350 to 400 total yards; Detroit is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take the Eagles.

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Buffalo Bills in an AFC Divisional matchup set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by more than 10 points. Some books offer an alternate line and if you have access to that then consider making this a combination wager using a 30* play on the line and then a 5* play using the alternate line, which would be Patriots -14 1/2 at +220 or slightly higher. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a weak money losing 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in road games when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; Patriots are a solid 44-13 ATS (+29.7 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards;  21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 30-11 ATS (+17.9 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards;  39-16 ATS (+21.4 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play. Patriots are a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo got a huge road win last wee defeating the Jets 22-17 and were installed as 2 1/2 point dogs. Although a great win, Buffalo, as many teams are in this role, is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Patriots are off a very emotional 27-26 win over the Giants. However, they are a robust 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. Patriots have the best overall team grading in my NFL database and by a significant margin. Although having a horrid pass blocking grade, the offense has done extraordinarily well under Brady and an ever changing week-to-week game plan. What has been quite impressive is the quiet emergence of a top-level defensive unit. The Patriots truly excel in pass coverage, especially third down and red zone situations and this will be very difficult for Buffalo to overcome. Moreover, Buffalo has a modest pass rush at best, so the poor Patriots pass blocking grade is a matchup wash. So, with little or no pressure on Brady and a pounding ground game led by Blount (that is my guess anyway, it could be a name we have never heard of yet), the Patriots will cruise to a double digit win.

35* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ARZ will win this game by at least six points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 22-4 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (ARIZONA) off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams winning >= 75% of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ARZ is  perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons;  26-7 ATS (+18.3 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards. Arizona has the third-best overall rating in the NFL based on my database while Cincinnati ranks 6th best. Looking at complete offense rankings, ARZ is the best in the NFL by a modest amount over the Patriots. Again, the Bengals are ranked fifth best offensive team. On defense ARZ ranks 11th best while Cincy is 16th in that category. Breaking it down further and the matchup that clearly shows that ARZ is the better team is in pass coverage. As a unit the ARZ secondary is the third best coverage unit while Cincy ranks a distant 14th. So, we have two elite teams, but Arizona has edges in all of the major matches and playing at home on Sunday Night makes it that much bigger. Arizona has the edge scoring 33.6 PPG to the Bengals 26.1 PPG. ARZ has the edge in points-per-play at 0.52 compared to the Bengals 0.409. Arizona has the edge in average scoring margin at 13 PPG compared tot he Bengals 9.2 PPG. Take Arizona.

35* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they host the Green Bay Packers in NFC North action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by at least three points and continue their amazing ascent int eh NFL standings. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-1 record using the money line good for an incredible 96% winners since 2005. Play on home teams using the money line (MINNESOTA) and is a solid defensive team allowing between 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG after 8+ games, after scoring 30 points or more last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons;  9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, wee see that Minnesota is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. GB overall team ranking is 8th and Minnesota 10th best. Overall offensive grade sees GB ranked 11th and Minnesota 13th best in the NFL. Logically, with Rodgers under center GB ranks fifth in passing grade, but Minnesota has steadily risen to now rank 12th best. In the ground game, Minnesota is 7th best while GB is 12th so no real advantage for either team. The big matchup advantage for the Vikings is with their pass rush that ranks fifth best in the NFL. This defensive front is especially effective at getting pressure up the middle and has always been a problem for Rogers since he has no room to step up and make throws over the middle of the field. That will be the storyline throughout the game. I also like the ability of Minnesota to control the clock with their running game and third down efficiency rates to keep the chains moving and gain a big edge in TOP. Take the Vikings. 

35* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they host the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Ravens will win this game by at least four points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-8 mark good for 85% winners using the money line and has made 32 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against underdogs vs. the money line (ST LOUIS) off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a favorite, with a losing season record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rams are just  11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in road games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards. HC Fisher has been a money burning 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points as the coach of the Rams. Plus, HC Harbaugh is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Baltimore has had a very rough season, but they are certainly playing much better in recent weeks. Rams had climbed into playoff contention, but two straight losses has made that questionable. Moreover, the Rams offense has stalled and scored just 31 points in the L2 games. Ravens defense is quite good and rank fourth best in my gradings against the run. Stopping the Rams running game will undoubtedly cause third and long situations for the Rams offense and not something they do well. Take Baltimore. 

35* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TENN will win this game. We need to see +145 or higher from the money line to validate a combination wager. If that occurs, then consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. I do n't see the '3" line moving, but the 'vig' charged will change and this may be just enough to get the ML up to that +145 level. If the ML stays below the +145 threshold then simply play this TITAN as a 35* wager on the line.  Both teams are struggling, but both teams are still int he hunt in the AFC South. The colts lead the division, but now with Andrew Luck on IR, this is essentially a Division where anything can happen. However, in this matchup Tennessee is the better team on both sides of the ball, especially on defense. Overall team gradings show Tennessee ranked 21st and JAX 28th in the NFL. On offense, TENN ranks 21st and JAX 28th. On defense TENN ranks 11th while JAX is just 30th in the NFL gradings from the database. JAX pass blocking grade is poor and Tennessee has a solid pass rush that I believe will overwhelm the JAX OL throughout this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-23 ATS for 69% ATS winners since 2005. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a struggling team outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TENN is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons; 44-21 ATS (+20.9 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. Take Tennessee. 

35* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texans will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I like making this a combination wager using a 31* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) poor rushing team gaining =4.5 YPR after 8+ games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. As these technicals feature, I do believe the Houston ground game will be successful tonight and will be a dominant reason Houston will remain very competitive throughout this contest. As I mentioned in Sunday's 'free pick' although Detroit was an 11 point dog, I did like the idea of putting together a combination wager consisting of an 85* play on the line and a 1.5* on the money line. Detroit came through and Houston just might tonight as well. I obviously never know when these huge upsets will occur, but you have to be disciplined and make these types of plays consistently over the course of the season. Brian Hoyer is a solid 11-5 ATS in road games that he has started, so he does have the NFL experience to execute the offense well. Bengals defense is suspect based on run defense and pass coverage grades. So, I do strongly believe that Houston will make this a very closely contested game. Take Houston

35* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFC West Division action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ARZ will win this game.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 mark against the money line for 81% winners since 1983. Play on all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (SEATTLE) when playing a division opponents, off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.ARZ is also a solid 7-1 against the money line (+6.5 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 against the money line (+6.2 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 against the money line (+9.8 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons; Seattle is a money burning  1-5 against the money line (-8.9 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. ARZ is a solid 8-1 against the money line (+8.2 Units) vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Arizona is simply the better team on both sides of the ball and I expect them to win the game. Marshawn Lynch is listed as questionable with reports stating he has a 50/50 chance of going. His back up Rawls has arguably been better than Lynch and this may be HC Carroll just trying to create some propaganda pre-game. Whoever starts, it does not impact the algorithm grading in the least. Take Arizona. 

50* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the NY Giants in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Patriots win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2010.  Play on favorites (NEW ENGLAND) after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a solid  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons;  9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 300 or more net passing yards over the last 2 seasons;  21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt. Giants are just 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in home games when they rush for 75 to 100 yards; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 400 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons. Tom Brady has the quickest release after snap at 2.1 seconds in the NFL. This is getting the ball out, minimizing opponent blitz schemes and getting the ball to his receivers in space. Further, Brady, who already has the best throwing motion in the game, worked with legendary baseball pitching coach Tom House this week. Perfection is the goal of Brady and it spills over to his teammates. Patriots also have the second best pass coverage grade in the NFL and that unit will take away any vertical routes that Manning wants to attempt. Simply, the Giants have a horrid pass coverage grade and pass rush grade. There is just no way to expect the Giants defense to contain the Patriots offense today. Take New England. 

35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they host the Minnesota Vikings in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. Have to mention the NFL and Roger Goodell finally doing something right, but something that should not even be a second thought. A each venue today, there will be a moment of silence for the horrific terrorist actions in Paris Friday night. I plan on joining that in each game I see today. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game by at least 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on home teams (OAKLAND) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and are now facing a good defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG. This system has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past three seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Raiders are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Vikings are a money burning  10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. Further, we see that Minnesota is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less; 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games after a win by 3 or less points. Minnesota is tied with Green Bay for the division lead with a very impressive stretch of wins led by a dominating defense. Minnesota's offense is still a work in progress and grading highly negative ranking 16th in the NFL. Vikings defense ranks fifth overall and second in pass rush. However, the Raiders are one of six teams in the NFL to have overall offense and defense positive grades. Raiders offense ranks fifth best and their defense 11th best. The Vikings surprisingly have a highly negative grade in run blocking and will be facing a Raiders run defense that grades fifth best in the NFL. Oakland is the better team and they are playing at home. Take the Raiders. 

35* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 27* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 73-34 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (MIAMI) off a road loss in games played in November. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Miami is a solid 74-31 ATS (+39.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers. Philadelphia has been as money burning 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in the second half of the season; Miami is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games off in 2 straight division games. Based on my gradings, Miami has the best pass rush grade in the NFL and will be looking to further confuse QB Bradford with different pre-snap looks. For the Eagles, they simply must establish the run game and I don't see that happening. Eagles offense has climbed the rankings in overall offensive grade, but remain in negative territory. Dolphins have Lamar Miller leading a ground attack that ranks second in the NFL averaging 4.9 YPR. Eagles rank 15th allowing 4.1 YPR. Although Miami has not done well controlling the yempo of games ranking 30th at 46.4% TOP, they are monumentally better than the dead last Eagles, who post a 4.4% TOP. I believe you will see Miami control the tempo with a steady dose of Miller and high percentage pass plays that move the chains to gain a significant edge in TOP. Take the Miami Dolphoins.

35* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the San Diego Chargers in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than three points and have a great shot at winning SU. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 70-31 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SD is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. Fox is a solid Fox is 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached. If not for Rivers, SD could be winless as the rest of the offense is very poor. They rank 29th in pass blocking and will be going up against Bears pass rush that ranks 16th best in the NFL. Not great, but all of the matchups certainly lean toward the Bears with the exception of the QB position. The Bears will get pressure up the middle against Rivers and not allow him to step up and execute strong powerful throws. I see Cutler having a huge night going against the worst defensive unit in the NFL by far. They are horrid in run defense and also pass coverage. Take the Bears. 

35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 27* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line.  Not much respect being given to the Raiders and much media emphasis targeting their youthful age. Well, the Raiders do have the youngest average age of their starters and actually isn't that an advantage against the Steelers? I certainly believe so, and the Raiders right now believe they can compete with and defeat any team in the NFL. Raiders remain one of the 6 teams to have positive grades in overall offense and defense in my NFL database. Pittsburgh is one of those 6 teams as well, but Oakland has a vastly stronger defensive grade. Yes, it is the Raiders defense that is vastly better and I believe that will be quite obvious this afternoon. The Steelers barely grade positive on defense and are actually quite poor in the pass coverage grade ranking 31st in the NFL. They offset this weakness with a strong pass rush featuring zone blitz schemes. However, Raiders offense has positive grades across the board in run, pass, run blocking, and pass blocking. So, if Steelers send the blitz the corners will be under immense pressure to cover Cooper and Crabtree in man coverage. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-9 mark using the ML and has made 39 units/unit wagered averaging a +102 dog. So, that is 84% winners and supports the algorithm grading. Play on any team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) off a home loss against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Raiders are a solid  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half; Steelers HC Tomlin is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) off 3 or more consecutive 'unders'. Take the Raiders. 

35* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Green Bay packers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game. As you may already know, I like taking these dogs and forming combination wagers using the money lie and line for maximum ROI. However, this line does not warrant such a combination wager. The ML needs to be at +145 and higher to validate the risk. With the betting line at +2 1/2 and +3 at most books, we need to get to + 3 1/2 line, which may happen in the next several hours. Not suggesting at all that we need that extra 1/2 point to win this wager, but it certainly never hurts to get the best possible line. In this case, if there is a line move, it will be due to the public wagers on Green Bay. Keep in mind too that the books may just increase the 'vig' and keep the line at + 3. So, you may see GB lined at -3 -125 at some point. This will move the money line higher. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-23 ATS mark good fo 69% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Carolina is a solid 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt;  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. GB is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Carolina is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Carolina is one six teams in my database that have positive overall gradings in both offense and defense. They rank 7th in offense and 5th in defense. The fact is that the GB offense is struggling and they rank 14th in overall offense and 28th in run blocking. Carolina defense is solid against the run and are arguably one of the best coverage teams in the NFL. That debate would include Denver and Arizona secondaries, but Carolina is elite in pass coverage. So, with the inability of the Packers to establish the ground attack, Rodgers will be forced to throw against an elite secondary. Carolina is the top ground attack in the NFL running a play on 50% of their plays. They rank best at 4.3 YPR, first with 33.3 rushes per game, first averaging 144 rushing yards per game. GB defense ranks 26th allowing 4.7 YPR and 25th allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game. Carolina is expected to have a huge edge in TOP and that domination will go a long way to Carolina remaining undefeated. Take the Panthers. 

35* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they host the Indianapolis Colts in NFL Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game by at least 10 points. Carolina is one of six teams that have positive overall grades on offense and defense in my grading database. They rank 6th best in overall offense, ninth in passing, third in rushing, fifth in pass blocking, and 15th in run blocking with a slightly negative grade. The run blocking is improving over the past four weeks, so that is truly not a glaring weakness that a 24th ranked Colts run defense can stop. Colts are just not good on either side of the ball and the Panthers have vast matchup advantages on both sides. Colts have significant negative grades on every category mentioned above and Carolina will expose those weaknesses. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Carolina is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they rush for 150 to 175 yards; 58-17 ATS (+39.3 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards; 60-15 ATS (+43.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards. Take Carolina. 

35* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Green Bay Packers in big time Sunday Night showdown set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these DOGS a combination wager using a 28* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-9 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on home teams (DENVER) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG against a good defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Much emphasis and for due reason is being placed on Payton Manning's 'bad' season and that he is just too old to play QB in the NFL. The Denver defense is the unit that Manning never had as support in his previous hall of fame career seasons. It is true that Manning's arm strength is not what it used to be especially on vertical routes, but he doesn't have to go for broke this season either. His defense will keep them in any ball game they face this season and in the playoffs. GB overall offense grade ranks just 11th in my database, which is in stark contrast to what the talking media heads claim. Further, the Packers OL is horrid in run blocking and will be facing an elite defense that ranks first overall by a vast margin, third in run defense, second in pass rush, and second in pass coverage grades. Simply, it would hard to find a stronger defense that Rogers has faced in his career and I think he and the Packers will struggle on both sides of the ball. Take Denver.

35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they host the NY jets in an important AFC matchup set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given these projections I like making this a combination wager as long as you can get +150 from the money line portion.  I do think that will be an easy task as I do see anough pubic money money coming in to move this line to - 3 1/2 Jets, or Jets -3 laying -125, which in turn would equate to a plus 160 money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (OAKLAND) a good offensive team averaging 23 to 27 PPG an dis now facing a good defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are off an emotional loss to the divisional rival Patriots and this hangover will be a factor in this game. This is not an isolated phenomenon applying only to the Jets, but ALL NFL teams have difficult games following similar type losses. Jets are just 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) off a road loss against a division rival since 1992. There are 6 teams in the NFL that have positive overall grades in offense and defense in the database. Oakland is one of them and they are a team on the rise. They are young and do make mistakes as evidence by their league high committed penalty stats, but each way they do take another step forward. Currently the Jets and Steelers are in the wild card position, but with a win the Raiders certainly will be in position for a possible playoff run. Take the Raiders.

35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 ATS mark good for 82.4% ATS winners since 1983. Play against road underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) that are solid  offensive teams scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. 20 of the 28 wins covered the spread by more than 7 points and this system is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the L5 seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TB is just 11-36 ATS (-28.6 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 0.5 to 1 yards/play. ATL is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play. Further, BUCS head coach Smith is a nearly imperfect 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game in all games he has coached. As I stated in my weekly offensive review of the best in the NBFL this week, ATL is ranked first in overall offense. Only the Steelers, who rank fourth, have a more balanced offensive attack. What ATL does first and best is run block and this has set up Freeman to become the league's elite new star back. BUCS have a horrid defensive unit that ranks second to last overall and they just can't stop the run ranking 29th. The Bucs are solid rushing the QB, BUT then the weak secondary is exposed, especially when facing a QB as good as Matt Ryan. BUCS rank 31st in pass coverage grade. Take the Falcons. 

35* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that CLV will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot at the upset win. I like making this a combination wager using a 29* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) that is a struggling team being outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 9 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Browns are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) facing solid passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Arizona does grade fifth best offensive unit in the NFL, but flying under the radar are the Browns, who rank ninth best. Plus, the Browns rank BEST in pass blocking grade and will be facing a ARZ pass rush that ranks 29th in the NFL. CLV only scored 6 points last week against STL, who is by far the top overall defensive unit, but completed 30-of-37 passes for 282 yards. That trend will continue here and the Browns will execute in the red zone. Take the Browns. 

35* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in NFL Monday Night action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that ARZ will win this game by at least 11 points. There are five teams that have attained positive grades on both overall offense and defense. ARZ is one of them and I expect that to be quite evident in tonight's matchup against  a vastly inferior foe. Further, ARZ ranks third in the passing game grade and will be going up against a Ravens pass defense that is average at best and certainly below average in the secondary. So, although Baltimore has been good at stopping the run, the game plan for ARZ will be throw and stretch the defense with vertical routes that will in turn open up the running game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-18 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2010. Play on favorites (ARIZONA) off a road loss, good team, winning 60% or more of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ARZ is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Further, ARZ is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. Take the Arizona cardinals.

35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the San Diego Chargers in AFC West action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM shows that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager using a 27* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line. I am seeing +160 for the money line currently and this represents a great price level to execute the combination wager. Right now, Pittsburgh and the Jets control the wild card berths and a loss by either team in this matchup will essentially end any chance of a post season berth. Oakland ranks 10th best offense based on my gradings. They are exceptional in pass blocking too ranking third best in the NFL. The Chargers rank dead last in overall defense grade with a 31st rank defending the run and 24th in pass coverage. I expect the Raiders ground game to get rolling and then to use play action attacking the seams and the perimeter in man coverage situations. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers rank 21st in overall offense grade. If it were not for the talent and tenacity of Philip Rivers, this ranking would be far worse. He has been amazing despite having an OL line ranked 31st in pass blocking grade. The Raiders though are a defensive unit on the rise and currently rank 19th overall, 12th defending the run, and 18th in pass rush. Their one weakness has been in pass coverage where they rank 24th, but again, they are a unit on the rise and I fully expect them to contain Rivers in this game. Further, the Raiders ground game will give them a significant edge in TOP and keep Rivers off the field. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2010. Play against home teams (SAN DIEGO) excellent offensive team gaining >=370 YPG and is now facing a good offensive team gaining between 335 to 370 YPG, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons; SD is a money burning 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Raiders. 

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they host the NY jets in AFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 ATS mark good for 82.4% winners since 1983. Play on home favorites (NEW ENGLAND) in a game involving two teams who outpass their opponents by 1.5+ yards per pass, after the current home favorite gained 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect  7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=375 yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. Patriots rank 4th in overall offense, third in passing, and a solid 9th in rushing based on my gradings. The media talk all week has centered on the Jets best defense in the NFL theme, but honestly, my work shows them as the 12th best defensive unit (10th versus the run. 25th pass rush, and 6th in pass coverage). Patriots rank 11th in pass blocking grade, despite having numerous injuries along the OL and with many players taking on two different positions in the same game. I'll be brief here, Brady will have time to throw and will be able to make the correct decisions connecting to his receiver. If the Jets take away the underneath routes, which I expect them to try, Brady will be able to exploit man coverage on the perimeter. In addition, if the Jets try and blitz and/or take away the underneath routes, it leaves TE Gronkowski in man coverage. Patriots defense has struggled against the run and the Jets do have a strong matchup with Ivory in this area. Yet, a strong running game will not be near enough to keep with the Patriots offense that I believe will put up a ton of points this afternoon in Foxboro. Take the Patriots. 

35* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. Also, a 10* play 'OVER" the posted total. SIM algorithms show a high probability that the 49ers will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these DOGS a combination wager comprised of a 28* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Instead of the combination wager, you could play a parlay using the money line and the 'over' for no more than 5* play. Another consideration is to play a 5* play using the money line and 'over' 49 1/2 on the adjusted total spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-14 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1983. Play on home underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) with a good offense averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The difference between these two defenses is quite vast. However, the one thing SF does well is defend the run and this is clearly the key to SF winning this game. In stopping or at least containing Marshawn Lynch, the 49ers then force Wilson to win the game with his arm. Note, that the Seattle offense grades 26th best in my NFL overall grades and that SF is right behind them - so the offenses are nearly equal and SF has been steadily improving the past few weeks. I also see Kaepernick having a break-out game to the 2015 campaign. The Seattle defense grades modestly negative in pass coverage. Kaepernick's mobility and quickness presents a problem to the Seattle secondary. By extending play, Kaepernick can allow his receivers a few extra seconds to gain separation and make high percentage throws. Further, we see that Seattle is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons. Take the 49ers. 

35* graded play on the NY Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This is a major divisional battle for control of the NFC East and obviously the Eagle fans will be in a frenzy by game time. My SIM algorithms show a high probability that the Giants will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and also has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 28* play using the line and a 7* p;lay using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-14 mark good for 75% winners since 1983. Play against favorites (PHILADELPHIA) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a team winning between 25% to 40% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are a solid  27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt. Eagles ofensee is always in the media focus given Chip Kelly's background and resume. Yet, they continue to not play consistent football and execute for 60 minutes. They rank 24th in overall grade. It has the defense that has out performed so far this season, but here again they have allowed scores and big gains with failed assignments in coverage. Yet, they rank 4th overall i total defensive grade. The key, though is that are not doing well in the pass rush categories and against Eli Manning, you cannot have a defense that does not get pressure on him. If he gets more than 3.5 seconds of time to scan the field, he will pick the Eagles secondary apart. If the Eagles blitz he has slant routes to the TE and WR (Beckham) in man coverage. RB Vareen also presents matchup problems for the Eagles defense, who will be forced to respect his presence on the field as a release valve if the Eagles choose to blitz. His presence in any down and distance almost eliminates the Eagles blitz. Eli is a veteran quarterback, who truly know how to take what a defense gives his team. Take the Giants. 

35* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Green Bay packers in NFL action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SD will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at the upset. In order to take advantage of the upset, consider playing a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-12 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 27-7 ATS for 79% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SD defense has been suspect to say the least, but GB is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=6 yards/play. SD has struggled to run the ball, but I expect them to have greater success in this matchup. Green Bay has a good run defense if you listen to the media, but based on my work, they have the 25th best run stop grade in the NFL. They do have a strong pass rush, but Rivers is fully capable of getting rid of the ball quickly, especially now that AntonioGates is back at TE. The Chargers have failed to stop the run, but what they do well is pass rush and cover receivers. Further, GB offense ranks 29th in run blocking grade and for this matchup I give the edge to the SD defensive front. Rivers has a 103.8 QB rating, is completing 71% of his pass attempts, and is averaging 323 passing yards per game. This simple set of facts can not be under estimated simply because the Chargers are visiting Lambeau. Take the Chargers.

35* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Buffalo will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 85-39 mark using the money line good for 69% winners since 2005. Play against road teams using the money line (CINCINNATI) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. Here is a second money line system that has gone 51-13 for 80% winners since 2010. Play on home teams using the money line (BUFFALO) with a good rushing defense allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Buffalos offense is steady and is showing some signs of better execution, but it will be their Rex Ryan signature defense that will win this game. In the past Ryan's defense schemes have featured tremendous pass rush pressure, but this year's edition has featured very strong pass coverage. Bengals are the fourth best overall offense and rank first in the passing game based on my gradings. The Jets pass coverage will be strong enough to disrupt the Bengals offensive flow and generate a few turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Buffalo is a solid  28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt;Bengals are a money losing 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take Buffalo. 

35* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that SD will win this game by 6 or more points. Rivers is playing some of his best football of his career and has willed his team to a 2-2 record through four games. His flash stats don't look all that impressive, but he is executing progressions at a very high level and not forcing balls into tight coverages. Tonight, he will be facing a highly suspect secondary that grades 25th in pass coverage. The Chargers offense grades 8th in passing offense grade and has steadily risen in each of the past three weeks. Plus, he gets TE Gates back tonight. SD will design a scheme to stretch the Steeler defense vertically and then use the underneath routes as essentially long handoffs. This controls the clock and moves the chains. SD already ranks 3rd in offensive yards per game at 411 and I fully expect them to eclipse this mark tonight. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is just 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards; 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play; Chargers are a solid money making 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. Even with Vick under center, the Steelers do have two big-time play makers in Bell and Brown. I do believe that the SD defensive front will be able to control the LOS and then be able to blitz Vick and force him into quick throws - as opposed to letting him air it out to either Brown or Bell. Take San Diego.

35* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that SF will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. I like adding a 3* play using the money line to take advantage of the possible upset SFD 49er win for a total of 28* of risk. 49ers rank dead last in team offense scoring just 12 PPG. They do rank 5th best gaining 4.4 yards per rush and this will be a dominant key to the 49ers remaining competitive in this game. Kaepernick is vastly better than what he has produced this season and he knows he is on the hot seat and could be benched if he under performs again. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 111-57 ATS mark good for 66% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) and is a struggling team outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SF is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons; Giants are a 15-40 ATS (-29.0 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards. Kaepernick has a big game led by a strong running game that will include Kaepernick as well. Take the 49ers.

35* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Buffalo Bills in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Tennessee will win this game. Unless you can get +145 or higher on a ML play or higher my normally featured combination wager is not validated. If the line does adjust to the needed level, the consider making a 18* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line.  Titans QB Mariota is already showing why he was worthy to be the No. 1 pick. According to Elias, Marcus Mariota is the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to have multiple touchdown passes in each of his first three career games. The other two are Jay Cutler (2006) and Mark Rypien (1988), who both had multiple touchdown passes in their first four games. Taylor has done well in the Bills wins and has struggled in their losses. So, as he goes so go the Bills. The absence of RB McCoy certainly hurts the versatility of the Bills offense and ultimately forces Taylor to win the game with his arm. Trouble for him in this matchup is that Buffalo grades 7th best in the NFL in pass coverage grade. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 84-36 mark good for 70% winners using the Money Line and has made 53 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against road teams using the money line (BUFFALO) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Titans are a solid 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play;  1-6 against the money line (-8.6 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the Buffalo Bills.

35* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the KC Chiefs in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that the Bears will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. The chance for an upset is not that high, but nevertheless add a 4* play using the money line - just in case. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This system has gone 11-1 ATS the past three seasons. The Bears defense has done well this season and grade 9th best overall, and 6th best against the run based on my gradings. KC offense has not been consistent and I strongly believe that Chicago will dominate the LOS. I am also expecting the Bears defense to create turnovers and give the offense a short field to score points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is just 1-11 against the money line (-11.3 Units) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Take the Bears. 

35* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that the Texans will win this game by at least 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 20-6 mark good for 77% winners and has made 22.3 units/unit wagered averaging a very nice +142 DOG play since 2005. Play on any team vs the money line (HOUSTON) after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a win by 3 or less points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston has been a solid  31-10 ATS (+20.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points; 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points. Status of luck will not matter in this game. So, if the unexpected happens and he does start, this is still a valid play. The line will adjust accordingly and offer us an even stronger opportunity. Houston is 1-3 on the season and is desperate for a win. Playing at home is a huge advantage for the Texans and I fully expect a huge effort across the board. Colts are floundering right now and I don't see them being able to move the ball consistently in this matchup. Take the Houston Texans.

35* graded play on the Washington redskins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. The line is currently asking a vig premium at Washington +3 -120, but I don't think there is a chance that this line will go to 2 1/2. Normally, I would play this as a combination wager using line and money line wagers. The ML risk/reward profile simply does not make it a solid wager. Id you do get a money line of +145 or higher, then consider play a 17* play using the line and an 8* play using the money line. What was supposed to be a high powered offensive team has turned more into a defensive presence for the Eagles. Bradford looks lost in his progressions and seems scared to death to throw down field in vertical routes. It could be due his B2B ACL injuries and rehabs. Whatever the reason, he looks stressed in the pocket on any route taking 3 seconds or more. The Eagles grade 25th best in the NFL and the passing grade is a horrid dead last in the NFL. Washington's defense is play well and they have the 6th best pass rush based on the gradings. So, you can assured the Redskins will bring pressure from a wide array of schemes. Washington plays a 3-4 scheme and DE Chris Baker grades 5th best in the NFL and is very good against the run. He will almost eliminate flare passes to Eagles RB Sproule's with his seal the edge discipline. He ranks 2nd best in the NFL at his position in pass coverage. So, you have a quick DE dropping back to cover a TE or RB while the zone blitz attacks the QB. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-8 mark using the MONEY LINE for 83% winners since 2010. Play on home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) with a good rushing defense allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Take the Washington Redskins.