Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

4:30 PM EST, Christmas Day

4% Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints. 

Let’s start with an outstanding betting system that has earned a 37-7 ATS record good for 84% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on offensive teams gaining between 5.4 and 5.8 yards-per-play on the season, are coming off a game getting outgained by a minimum of 100 total yards, and are not facing a struggling defense allowing 5.8 or more YPPL on the season. 

Minnesota is giving up 27.7 points-per-game and New Orleans is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS when facing struggling defenses allowing 27 or more PPG on the season in games played over the last three seasons. 

From the machine learning tools, the Saints are 39-17-1 ATS when the have gained 6.5 or more YPPL in home games since 2000. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
8:15 PM EST, December 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals +14 points.

I also like teasing the Bengals up to +21 and the ‘UNDER’ up to 47.5 points.

Home Dogs of 8.5 to 15.5 points that have won less than 23% of their games in the current season, in weeks 8 thorugh 17 of the regular season, and facing a conference foe have earned a 42-23-1 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 1990.

Dogs on Monday Nights that have also been dogs in their previous three games has seen the ‘UNDER’ go 18-3 since the start of the 2015 season.

Pittsburgh has topped 50 yards rushing just twice over its past seven games, allowing defenses to put more focus on shutting down the Steelers' short passing game. Plus, Tomlin is just 3-8 ATS for 27% dressed as a double-digit road favorite.

Arizona vs Philadelphia

4% Best Bet on Arizona minus the points. 

From the machine learning model and tools, Arizona is projected to gain 150 or more rushing yards and average 5.8 yards-per-play. Since 2011, when the Cardinals met or exceeded these measures, has led them to a 14-2 SU record and a 13-3 ATS record good for 81% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. 

The Eagles are a money-burning 4-17 SU and ATS in games played in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed an average of 5.8 yards-per-play over the last ten seasons. 

Eagles head coach Pederson is 5-13 ATS in games played on turf. 

LA Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
4% Best Bet on the Chargers +3 points.

Let us start with a highly profitable betting system that has earned an outstanding 47-24 ATS for 68% winning bets and 51-18-2 UNDER. Play against home teams that are allowing 25 or more PPG and have allowed 25 or more points in 3 straight games.

Here is a second betting system that supports the Chargers and underscores how poorly the Raiders have taken care of the ball this season. This system has earned a 72-39 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to bet on any team after committing no more than one turnover and is facing an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin in their previous game.

Teams that have 4 or more wins than their divisional opponent and are a home favorite of not more than 4 points are a terrible 13-21-1 ATS for 38.2% winning bets since 2006.

The machine learning tools project that the Chargers will score 24 or more points and force the Raiders into a minimum of two turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these measures, have seen them go on to earn a 26-2 SU record and 24-4 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets that covered by an average of 10.2 points.

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns

First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio

4% Baltimore Ravens – 3.0 points

The two best running teams collide tonight in Cleveland, Ohio, but it will be the passing game that will dictate the winner of this game. Both quarterbacks overall have graded at about the same levels. However, Mayfield has a 116 QB rating when passing the ball in a clean pocket and a horrid 32 QBR when pressured. With a clean pocket, Jackson has earned a 98 QBR and when pressured an excellent 82.4 QBR. Jackson has been sacked 24 times, with 7 deflected balls, 16 drops, 8 throwaways, and 36 scramble plays. Mayfield has been sacked 17 times, five deflected passes, 19 drops, 24 throwaways, and 14 scrambles.

Mayfield and his offense will not be facing one of the best defenses, who lead the NFL with 211 blitz plays or 42% of all defensive calls on the season. Seattle is second in the NFL with 202 blitzes accounting for 33.7% of the plays and Seattle has a game in hand. Browns' offensive line ranks first in the NFL giving Mayfield an average of 2.8 seconds of pocket time, but you will see the Ravens reduce that pocket time by at least a full second. So, the Ravens are by far the most aggressive blitz-happy team in the NFL and this is going to make it extraordinary rough for Mayfield to complete passes.

Jackson will face a solid Browns defense that blitzes 22% of all plays ranking 21st in the NFL and will have time to go through the play progressions and complete passes.

This betting system has earned a highly profitable 41-18 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2010 and requires us to bet on teams with a line within 3-points on either side of pick-em in a conference matchup where the team scored 25 or more points in back-to-back games and is facing an opponent off a game in which a total of 50 or more points were scored.

Coach Harbaugh is 13-3 after Week 8 in road games against teams that are allowing 24 or more PPG.

New England vs LA Rams
8:15 PM EST, December 10, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Patriots +5 points and I like sprinkling a little extra on the money line.

Bill Belichick, once again showed the NFL world why he is the G.O.A.T head coaches in the45-0 blowout and shutout of the LA Chargers last week. Note, that he is 5-1 SU + ATS installed as a dog and coming off a shutout win in his head coaching career. For the first time since the 2008 season, Belichick finds his team with 6 or fewer wins entering Week 13 or beyond. He is 10-5 ATS in this situation as the HC of the Patriots and 10-8 ATS as the HC of the Browns dating back to 1991. As the Patriots HC, he is 7-2 ATS when his teams have had 6 or fewer wins and the game was in Week 14 or beyond.

This is a matchup of two solid defenses matched up against two average offenses that have shown signs of their full potential at different times this season. Patriots defense ranks 7th in scoring defense allowqing 21.2 PPG and 23rd in scoring offense averaging 22.8 PPG. Rams rank 5th in scoring defense allowing 20.2 PPG and 17th in scoring offense averaging 25.1 PPG.

The rankings compare similarly with the yards-per-point, points-per-play, and yards-per-play ratios. So, in a game that the implied betting lines of Rams favored by 5 and a 44-point total indicate a 24.5-19.5 Rams victory, with both teams not scoring more than 24 points, I’ll take the defensive genius of Belichick.

The machine learning tools indicate that the Patriots will have more rushing attempts than passing attempts and will gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, under Belichick, and when they met these performance standards, the Patriots have earned an 86-3 SU record and 78-11 ATS record good for 88% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points. If the game in question was on the road, the Patriost are 36-3 SU and 37-2 ASTS for 95% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

Take the New England Patriots +4.5 or +5 if you can get it and sprinkle a little money line magic too.

Denver vs Kansas City
4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos +13.5 points and sprinkle a small amount on the monmey line.

There are many team situational trends working against Kansas City starting with the fact they are 0-7 ATS following a game in which they gained a minimum of 450 total yards in games played over the last three seasons. They are 5-18 ATS following three consecutive games gaining 380 or more yards in each of the three games in games played over the last three seasons. Head coach Andy Reid is 0-12 ATS in home games going off a win, but failing to cover the spread as a favorite in all games of his career; 0-7 ATS as the HC of the Philadelphia Eagles and 0-5 ATS with the Chiefs.

Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is a perfect 6-0 ATS following a loss of 14 or more points.

Here is a money line betting system that supports the possible and shocking upset win. Bet on road teams using the money line that has a defense allowing an average of 330 to 375 yards-per-game and is facing a host who is averaging a minimum of 370 total yards-per-game and is coming off a game where their defense allowed 400 or more total yards. This money line system has earned a 20-10 record SU for 67% and has made the $100 bettor a whopping $2,750 over the last five seasons.

Bet the Denver Broncos as a 4% Best Bet and don’t forget the small sprinkle using the juicy money line. Also, My free pick video is on the Jets today and I plan on a small parlay using the monmey lines for both Jets and Broncos. You never know.

Cleveland  Browns vs Tennessee Titans

4% Best Bet on the Tennessee Titans minus the points.

The Browns have an 8-3 record, but have just one win over a team that currently has a winning record, and four wins against the lowly NFC East teams. Both teams have great ground attack and defenses that plays to their strengths and makes few mistakes.

The Titans rank second-best in the NFL averaging 158.2 RYPG on the season and the Browns are best averaging 161 RYPG. The Browns are 3-8 ATS in road games facing an opponent that is averaging 140 RYPG and 4-10 ATS regardless of site location facing a foe averaging 140 or more RYPG.

This betting systems works against the Browns and has earned a 29-14-4 ATYS record good for 6% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet against teams that are averaging 180 to 230 passing yards-per-game and coming off a game in which they averaged a minimum of 7.2 yards-per-pass attempt, and facing a team that is allowing an average of at least 240 passing yards on the season.

The machine learning tools project that the Titans will gain at least 125 rushing yards and score a minimum of 24 points. Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points when meeting or exceeded that pair of performance measures.

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
4:05 PM EST, November 25, 2020

5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points.

My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.

The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.

The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006.

Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations.

Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan

J

Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions
12:00 PM EST, November 26, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Houston Texans minus the points.

Over the last four games, Detroit has lost three of them by double digits and in their lone win, they nearly coughed up a 21-point lead. Head Coach Mike Patricia is on the hot seat for sure, but that does not mean his team is going to play any better in their only nationally televised game of the season today. Teams on short rest that have lost 3-of-4 games by more than double digits are 10-17 ATS for 37% winning bets dating back to 1992. The ‘OVER’ in these games has been an impressive 16-9-2 for 64% winning bets.

Here is a betting system that supports the play produced by the machine learning model and has earned a profitable 46-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. Bet on road teams that allowed 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt in their last game and is now facing a struggling offensive team that gained 4.5 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt in their last game. Here is a subset of that system. When the team is playing on short rest the road teams has earned a 7-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 9 points.

Wager on the Houston Texas as a 4% Best Bet and lay the points.

NFL Week 11
Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts
4% Best Bet on the Indianapolis Colts

I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for the Colts defense to keep the Packers ground attack to fewer than 100 rushing yards and gain more yards-per-play than the Packers. In past home games in which the Colts met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 20-1 SU record and 17-3 ATS mark for 85% winning bets since 2010.

The Colts are coming off a double digit 34-17 SU win over their divisional rival Tennessee Titans. The Colts are a money-making 11-5 SU and 11-4-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010 when they defeated a divisional foe by a double digit margin in their previous game.

Take the Indianapolis Colts and bet them using the Money Line.

NFL Week 11

4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos

The Miami Dolphins have surged to a 6-3 SU record under the brilliant play of rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has put up some jaw-dropping numbers. With a win, Tua would join Ben Roethlisberger as the only other QB to win their first four games of their career.

     Denver’s suffocating defense has not been playing well and have allowed 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. Yet, 44 of the 144 points allowed in these four games came off of turnovers with that opponent having a short field and much higher scoring chance.  Denver’s defensive coordinator is out for this game, but has returned home after being  hospitalized with COVID. DE Shelby Harris is out as well for this game. I still believe that Denver’s defense is going to present new challenges for Tua to overcome.

     Here is a money line betting system that has earned a 17-6 SU record since 2010 and requires us to bet on home teams that average 100 to 125 RYPG and are coming off a game getting outrushed by 100 or more yards and now facing a suspect defensive unit allowing an average of 125 to 150 RYPG in the second half of the current season.

    
My Machine Learning Models
The machine learning models predict that Denver will average more yards-per-play than the Dolphins and score at least 20 points. In past home games in which the Broncos met or exceeded these measures has led to a 25-11 SU record for 69% wins and 27-7-2 ATS for 79% winning bets that have covered by an  average of 9 points in games played since 2010.

Bet the Denver Broncos and sprinkle a little extra wager using the money line.

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens

4% AFC Best Bet Showdown on the Baltimore Ravens

The machine learning model projects that Baltimore will gain 200 or more rushing and 200 or more passing yards. In past games in which Baltimore met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 8-0 SU record and a 7-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets that covered by an average of 17 points since 2000.

NFL Week 9

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs
8:20 ET, November 8, 2020

5% 10-Star NFL Game of the Month on the Tampa Bay Bucs. As a discpline, I always recommend to my clients a maximum wager amount of 5% of your total bankroll. My goal is to maximize my profits over the course of a full season and not depend on one single-game or one weekend. It is a marathon process to be a professional sports bettor. 

 This is a marquee matchup and all my research points to the Bucs. Antonio Brown is the latest edition to a stable of offensive weapons that Brady has at his disposal. Brady has thrown just one interception against 17 TDs and amassed 2,198 passing yards. However, it is the defense that has done their job every week to give Brady good field position in critical situations.

The Bucs defense is the most underrated unit in the NFL. My metrics have them clearly the best and significantly ahead of anyone else. The Bucs defensive front seven are difficult for any offensive line to get a push on after the snap. They are incredibly quick and can disguise their stunts and gap assignments as good as if not bnetter than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos schemes.

Brady’s arm is still a gun and I do feel Brees has lost some velocity and it shows on 20 to 30 yards routes. His shoulder has been ailing him and he is listed as probable. He will certainly play in this game. Brady is 5-24 ATS for 58% winning bets playing with same season revenge in his career.

 The machine learning models project that the Bucs will score a minimum of 27 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games when the Bucs have met or exceeded these projection they have earned an outstanding 31-12 SU record and 29-9-5 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

(301) Green Bay Packers vs (302) San Francisco 49ers

8:20 PM EST, November 5, 2020

4% TNF Best Bet Titan on the SF 49ers getting 7.5 points. No matter the line movement ahead of game-time, this will be a valid best bet.

The 49ers are descimated by a multitude of injuries and now the COVID-19 has hit the team with many offensive players infected and quarantined. Despite the physical injuries, the 49ers have been able to grind their way to a 4-4 SU record led by a powerful ground attack. Nick Mullins will start at QB in place of Garropolo, who is out with an injured ankle. He will be handing the ball off early and often against a Packers defense that has struggled to stop the run this season.

The Packers rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards-per-carry and rank 23rd with az 26% blitz percentage on the season. Mullins and the 49ers offense will be successful in the ground attack and will have short yardage third down situations that have high percentages to convert and move the chains. The Packers are vulnerable with deep over-the-top routes and I do believe you will see Mullins throwing long down field passes when the safeties are forced to be at the line-of-scrimmage to help stop the ground attack.

RB Jerick McKinnon will be the featured back and will be a go-to receiver in the flat where he can catch the ball in space. He is fourth on the team with 29 targets catching 21 balls for a 7.5 yards-per-catch average.

My machine learning models project that the 49ers will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and have an advantage of at least 5 minutes in time-of-possession. In past games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 43-2 SU record for 96% wins and a 36-8-1 ATS record good for 82% winning bets since 2005.

Bet the 49ers as a 4% Best Bet Titan tonight.

(255) New England vs (256) Buffalo
1:00 ET, November 1, 2020

4% Best Bet on the New England Patriots

I will start with an excellent betting system from my vast database that has earned a 29-6 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are four requirements.

1.       Bet on any team regardless of the betting line.

2.       Team is averaging 5.5 to 5.9 Yards-per-play (YPPL).

3.       Opponent is below average defense allowing a minimum of 5.75 YPPL.

4.       Opponent is coming off a game where the opponent gained a minimum of 100 more total offensive yards.

Coach Belichick is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS having lost three consecutive games SU and ATS in his career. Moreover, he is 10-3 ATS following a three-game ATS losing streak and 12-6-1 ATS when having lost three or more consecutive games ATS in his career.

Coach Belichick is 42-28-2 ATS for 60% wins facing a divisional foe and total lined at no higher than 42 points; 19-6 ATS for 76% following a double-digit loss and the opponent scored 30 or more points.

(101) Atlanta Falcons vs. (102) Carolina Panthers
8:20 PM EST, October 29, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Falcons +2 1/2 and is valid bet down to and including pick-em

Since 1995, these two divisional rivals have met 51 times, with the Falcons earning a 32-19 SU record and 29-18-4 ATS mark for 62% winning bets. In the last meeting, the Panthers defeated the Falcons 23-16 as 2-point road underdogs and ended a 5-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Falcons. The Falcons are above average on offense and below on defense. The opposite is true for the Panthers.

The Falcons are playing better football on both sides of the ball despite their losing record. For the season, they have a -3.3 average scoring differential and +3.0 over their last three games. On the season, the Falcons defense is allowing 29.6 PPG, but a much improved 23.0 PPG over their last three games. The offense has remained consistent throughout this most recent stretch matching all of the significant season-to-date ratios and metrics. The Falcons play fast, averaging 70.6 plays from scrimmage for the season, 70.7 over the last three games, and 73 in road games. So, the Panthers defense will be challenged to contain the Falcons fast-paced offense for 60 minutes.

My machine learning models provide a glimpse at what the final box may read. The Falcons are projected to score a minimum of 24 points and post an offensive yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 12. The more efficient an offense is, the lower the yards-per-point rate because it takes fewer yards to gain to put one point on the scoreboard. In past road games in which the Falcons have met or exceeded these performance measures, they earned an outstanding 10-2 SU record and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. Over the last three seasons, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS under these measures.

Chicago Bears vs. LA Rams
8:20 PM EST, October 26, 2020

10-Star NFL Game of the Month

The Rams have four wins against two losses, and the four wins are against the teams that comprise the NFC East (Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants). The two losses were at Buffalo and San San Francisco. The Bears have one home loss in a low-scoring 19-11 game t the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. They defeated Tampa Bay 20-19 in Week 5 and followed that up with a 23-16 road win at Carolina.

My power ratings rank the Bears as the 11th-best NFL team overall. They rank 22nd in total offense, split between a 25th ranking in the passing game and 17th rank in their ground attack. By comparison, the Rams rank 9th overall, 8th in passing, and 10th in their ground attack. However, when these metrics adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS), the Rams drop down the rankings listed as an average NFL team.

The significant advantage for the Nears is their defense that ranks 3rd-best overall in the NFL. Khalil Mack is the heart and soul of the defensive unit and has played at Pro-Bowl caliber levels in each of the first six games. He has played on 360 snaps attaining 29 pressures broken down to include five sacks, 21 quarterback hurries, and three quarterback hits. Linebacker Roquan Smith known for his speed and coverage excellence, leads the Bears with 41 tackles.

The Bears defensive unit has allowed just four receiving touchdowns on the season, ranking best in the NFL, with the Dolphins and Colts ranked second allowing seven touchdowns.

The Bears have achieved these results without relying on using the blitz, ranking 25th with a 19% blitz percentage of plays. Their secondary and linebacker coverage is elite, and Rams QB Goff will struggle to complete passes. The Bears defensive front can contain the Rams ground attack rendering the Rams play-action pass plays useless.

The reason play action works is that the linebackers must respect a ground attack. The Bears do not need to blitz Goff and do not have to bring their safeties closer to the line-of-scrimmage to stop the run. Whether the Bears play a bracket-zone or man scheme, the Rams receivers will have trouble getting separation from the defenders making throws hard to complete.

Nick Foles has not set the world on fire since taking over the starting QB position from the much-maligned Mitch Trubisky. His QBR is lower than Trubisky, but Foles wins. Just as he did in the 2016 regular season and culminating in the Super Bowl Championship and an MVP award for the Philadelphia Eagles. I am not suggesting a futures bet just yet on the Bears, but they are a united offensive unit when he is on the field, and Foles somehow makes the entire team better.

Here is a great betting system that has earned a 37-9 ATS mark, good for 79% winners over the last 7 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that failed to force a turnover in each of their last two games.

From the machine learning models, the Bears defense shall contain Rams defense to a 30% or lower third-down percentage and score a minimum of 21 points. In past games in which the Bears met or exceeded, this pair of performance measures has earned them a 54-9 SU record for 86% wins and a 52-9-2 ATS record for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by a minimum of 11 points.

Take the Bears and the points.

Tampa Bay vs Las Vegas Raiders
4:05 PM EST

4% NFL Best Bet Titan on the Las Vegas Raiders

Let us start with a proven and simple money-making system that has earned an outstanding 102-61-4 ATS for 63% winning bets since 1989 and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet on home teams facing an opponent off an upset win as a home underdog and has a winning record on the season. The Bucs are off the big home upset win over Green Bay last week and now are on the road to face a Raiders team off the BYE.

The following historical precedents match the machine learning projections for this game. So, the Raiders are 16-2 SU and 167-1-1 ATS in home games in which they passed for a minimum of 7.25 yards-per-pass, and will have the better (lower value) yards-per-point ratio since 2010. Usig the same performance measures and filtering only games that Jon Gruden has coached in his career gives us a 5-0 SU ATS record that covered the spread by an average 12 points.

 Green Bay vs Houston
1:00 PM EST, October 25, 2020

4% Best Bet Titan on the Texans

A 4% isa equivalent to a 7-star and represents 4% of your bankroll. As a serious discipline, never go over the 5% level, which is reserved for the 10-star releases I have released for the last two decades.

When things look too good to be true they often are. This game has a 4-win Packers team favored by just a field goal against a 1-win Texans team and looks initially to be not near enough points. This betting system supports the Texans and has earned an outstanding 41-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over he last 5 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites with a below-average defense forcing an average of less than one turnmover-per-game and are coming off a game where they had a turnover margin of -2.

Fron the machine learning models, the Texans are projected to gain six or more total yards-per-play and their defense will force a minimum of at least two turnovers. In past games, in which the Texans met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them a remarkable 19-3 SU record and 15-7 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2000; 8-3 ATS in home games and covering by an average of 8.8 points.

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM EST, October, 25, 2020

4% Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals’ inconsistent play has led to many different types of losses this season. At 1-4-1 straight-up (SU), the hope of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2015 has vanished. Head coach Zac Taylor has won 3 of his first 22 games but faces a team he defeated. The Bengals are playing better than expectations, though, posting a 4-1-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record this season.

The Second Meeting in the Battle of Ohio

In Week 2, the Browns defeated the Bengals 35-30 but failed to cover the spread by the slimmest of margins as 5.5-point home favorites. Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrows completed 37 passes on 61 attempts for 315 passing yards, including three touchdowns without an interception. Burrows threw a meaningless touchdown to wide receiver Tyler Boyd with 0:48 seconds left in the game to earn the back-door cover.

The Bengals are a solid bet when having the same season revenge against the AFC North. Since 2000, the Bengals are 16-18 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% winning bets in the second meeting of the season against the AFC North (Pittsburgh Steelers, Browns, and Baltimore Ravens) after losing the first meeting. Of these 34 second meetings, 14 of them were against the Browns. The Bengals are 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS for 71% winning bets playing with same season revenge against the Browns.

There is a money line betting system that supports the Bengals and puts the Browns on Upset Alert status. The system has three requirements and has earned a 71-48 SU record over the last ten seasons.

Bet on any team on the money line when:

1.       The opponent averages a minimum of 4.5 yards-per-rush.

2.The opponent is coming off a game gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards.

From the machine learning models the following metrics are based on the proejctions detailed. The Bengals are a solid 28-6 SU and 23-10-2 ATS for 70% winning bets when they have gained a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play and gained a minimum of 325 total offensive yards in games played since 2010.

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

8:20 PM EST, Thursday, October 22, 2020
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.

The NFC East Division is a horror show with the Dallas Cowboys getting destroyed by the Arizona Cardinals Monday night and remain in first place with an embarrassing 2-4 straight-up (SU) record. The Philadelphia Eagles have won once while losing four games, including a tie against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles trail the Cowboys by a ½ game in the standings during the Washington Football Team, and New York Giants sport 1-5 SU records and trail by one game. So, a win by any of these inept teams would vault them into a tie for first place.

In light of how badly the Cowboys played in a 38-10 SU loss to the Arizona Cardinals, any of the four teams can win the NFC East with a losing record. The Eagles tied the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 when head coach Doug Pederson opted to play for the tie and not the win. However, that decision to avoid a loss at all costs looks to be prophetic now.

The Eagles are a terrible team, and any win is significantly magnified in the NFC East standings. None of these teams are poised to rip off three or more consecutive wins and when they meet against a divisional foe earning a win is akin to winning 1.5 victories. The good news is that the Eagles are 5-0 SU and against-the-spread (ATS) in Thursday Night games under Pederson. Two of the five wins have been against the Giants, who are the opponent this Thursday.

The Eagles have endured so many injuries that they fail to stack up against any opponent right now. Running back Miles Sanders, tight end Zack Ertz, offensive guard/tackle Lane Johnson, and offensive tackle Jack Driscoll are unlikely to play in this game. Ertz is listed as 'OUT' as of Tuesday morning due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered in the loss to the Ravens that will require at least four weeks to heal.

The Eagles starting wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery remain listed as questionable, and even if they do play, their overall effectiveness is unknown. The most massive personnel problem is having seven offensive linemen on the injury list or injured reserve and how best to plug new linemen into the lineup.

A scheduled game on Thursday Night forces NFL teams to execute more straightforward game plans. For the Eagles, this is a blessing given all the inexperienced backup players now put into starting roles. A simplistic game plan is what the Eagles need immediately to stop making many mental mistakes contributing to their losing ways. After this game, the Eagles have the Cowboys coming to town and then will play these Giants again in the Meadowlands. The Eagles must win all three games because the schedule gets rough, facing five consecutive teams with winning records. The Eagles' current form would not win any of those five games, but a 6-10 record might win the division crown if they hold the bulk of the tie-breakers.

This betting system underscores the importance of turnovers that determine the outcome of a football game. The betting system has earned a solid 56-45 SU record and 62-33-6 ATS record, good for 63% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are three simple requirements for this system.

1.       Bet on road teams.

2.       The road team is coming off two straight games, committing no more than one turnover in each.

3.       The host is coming off a game, having forced zero turnovers.

When the road team has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, the record improves to 15-14 SU and 23-5-1 ATS for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The machine learning models project that the Giants will gain a minimum of 5.3 yards-per-play (YPPL) and gain more YPPL than the Eagles while scoring at least 20 points. In past games in which the Giants met or exceeded these measures have earned a 66-22 SU record and 68-20 ATS record, good for 77% winning bets over the last ten seasons. When these measures combine with the Giants installed as a road dog, the record improves to 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points.

Take the NY Giants plus the points as a Best Bet.

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
1:00 Noon EST
7-Star Best Bet on the Denver Broncos

This line was as high as 10-points and has been steadily moving lower despite the majority of tickets still jumping on the home favorite Patriots.

This NFL betting system supports the Broncos and has earned an outstanding 70% ATS on a 44-19-2 ATS record over the last five seasons. Play on underdogs facing an opponent that is coming off a game with a -3 or worse turnover margin.

The Broncos have the best run defense in the NFL and are only second to the Bucs in total defense.  Stopping the run, is key to defeating the Patriots given that they rank 21st in the NFL in overall passing.

The machine learning projections call for the Patriots to not have more than 230 passing yards and that the Broncos will have fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Broncos met or exceeded thes measures as a road dog has seen them earn a solid 14-10 SU record for 58% wins and 18-5-1 ATS for 78% winning bets that covered by an average of 7.7 points.

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM EST, October 18, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Chicago Bears

The Panthers defense has been awful this season ranking 27th overall in the NFL based on my numbers. The flash numbers may indicate a different picture but that one is a smoke and mirrors type. The Bears have been far better than them on defense ranking 6th-best overall and have shown excellent tackling of players in space too. I also have them ranked with the 4th-best pass rush in the NFL as well. They rank 15th with 11 sacks, but they have not been forced to use the blitz to generate pressure on the QB or to get penetration up field. Their defenswive line has been playing quite well and wht the unit ranks fifth in the NFL allowing 465 yards-after-the-catch.

DL Brent Urban, drafted in 2014, is having his best season and combined with Kamil Mack have been great run stoppers. Urbamn is listed as questionable for this game, but is expectd to play. Bilal Nichols has played on 187 snaps and can run a 4.9 Forty and has been getting better each week.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Bears in road games  are 32-11 SU for 74% wins and 35-6-2 ATS for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points when they held an opponent to fewer than 230 passig yards and had fewer turnovers.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
1:00 PM EST, October 18, 2020

Bet on Bad NFL Road Teams

There are two betting systems that support the winless Falcons in this road game against the Vikings. The first one has earned a solid 113-69-2 against-the-spread for 62% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. The requirements focus on offensive and defensive scoring.

1.         Bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

2.         Their opponents have outscored them by seven or more points-per-game.

3.         The dog is coming off back-to-back games, scoring seven or fewer points in the first half in each game.

The second NFL betting focuses on turnovers, which have a huge correlation to wins and losses for any football team. The system has earned a 28-8 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets spanning the last five seasons and has four requirements.

1.         Bet on underdogs, including pick-em.

2.         The team is mistake-free, averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

3.         The opponent has a defense that forces an average of 1.25 or fewer turnovers.

4.         The opponent is coming off two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover.

The Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Pick:

The Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has been declared ‘OUT’ for this game, suffering from a groin injury. He is a massive part of the Vikings offense and will give the Falcons an even greater chance of winning this game.

The machine learning models project that the Falcons will out gain the Vikings by at least 100 total yards and will score at least 24 points. In past games in which the Falcons met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a 52-5 straight-up (SU) record good for 91% wins and a 49-8 ATS record good for 86% winning bets covered the number an average of 14 points. The Falcons finally hold on to a lead and win the game.  

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans
7:00 PM EST, October 13, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Buffalo Bills

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 42-14 record for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

The machine learning models project that the Bills will score 24 or more points and will win the turnover battle. In past games in which the Bills met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a 30-2 SU record and 27-4-1 ATS for 87% winning bets the last ten seasons.

Chargers vs Saints
8:15 PM EST, October 13, 2020

7-Star play on the Chargers

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 33-9 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to be on a road team that is doing well in the passing game averaging 275 passing yards-per-game (YPP) on the season and are coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt.

The machine learning models project that the Chargers will gain a minimum of 5.5 yards-per-play and will outgain their opponent by a minimum of 70 total yards. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures as a road dog, they have earned a 5-1 SU record and perfect 6-0 ATS mark covering the spread by an average of 11 points.

Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks
8:20 PM EST, October 11, 2020

7-Star Best Bet on the Vikings.

I like making this a combination wager to exploit the upset by placing a 4.5* amount on the line and a 2.5-star amount on the money line. You can certainly just bet 7-star play on the spread (line) too.

Here is a money line system that has earned an solid 19-7 record for 73% winners and has made 20.1 units-perunit bet over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to on any team using the money line (MINNESOTA) that was outgained by opponent by 70 or more passing yards-per-game on the season, after gaining 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt in 2 straight games.

The machine learning models project that the Vikings will score 24 or more points and will average at least 7.7 yards-per-pass-attempt. In past games played over the last 5 seasons, the Vikings have earned a 19-3-1 SU record and a 18-3-2 ATS mark good for 86% winning bets.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
1:00 PM EST, October 11, 2020

7-Star Titan on the JAX Jaguars

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 42-14 record for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against home teams that are allowing 25 or more PPG and have allowed 25 or more points in 3 straight games. Simple, highly profitable and easy to track.

The machine learning models project that the Jaguars will score 24 or more points and gain a minimum of 250 passing yards. I past games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a 9-6 SU record and 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets the last five seasons. The Texans are just 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS for 28% wins when they have allowed these measures in games played over the last five seasons.

R

Tampa Bay Bucs vs Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago IL
8:20 PM EST, October 8, 2020

What Does the Machine Learning Have to Say?

My Machine learning models project that Brady will throw for more than 250 yards and that the Bucs will gain a minimum of 8.0 yards-per-pass attempt. When the Bucs have met or exceeded these performance measures in road games they have earned a 8-6 SU record and a 11-3 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.

NE Patriots vs KC Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, KC, MO
7:05 PM EST, October 5, 2020

7-Star play on the Patriots

Betting against the Patriots has not paid off well while Bill Belichick has been the head coach of the Patriots. The Patriots are 13-18 straight-up (SU), but 19-12 against-the-spread (ATS) for 61.3% winning bets as an underdog of more than 3 points and less than 10 points since the 2000 season. If we add the ‘site’ parameter to this database query we learn that the Patriots are 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in home games and 11-15 SU and 15-11 ATS for 58% winning bets since 2000.

Drilling into the data a bit further and using the type of surface the game is being played on reveals more supporting evidence. The Patriots are 3-5 SU and 5-1 ATS in games played on artificial turf under Belichick and installed as a 3 to 10 point underdog and 10-13 SU covering 61% of those 23 games for a 14-9 ATS record when the game is on grass. Arrowhead Stadium is a grass surface stadium.

Even the month when the game is played brings to light just how good betting the Patriots under Belichick as an underdog has been for backers. The chart below shows that his best month is in October, in which the Patriots have earned a solid 65-18 SU record and covered 68% of those games ATS for a 55-26-2 record.

Then the cheesecake appears. Now, that Cam has COVID-19 and will not be playing the line has made the Patriots a double-digit underdog. Belichick is 8-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in games where his Patriots team has been installed as 10 or more point underdog. 6-0 SU and ATS the last six games in this incredible stretch of games.

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
8:20 PM EST, October 4, 2020

Last week, on Monday Night Football, we got to see the Kansas Chiefs and their head coach and former Eagle head coach Andy Reed take offensive play-calling to a new level of creativity. Current Eagles skipper Doug Pederson used to call games in a similar creative style and at times with a whole lot more risk. Those days seem to be decades ago for the Eagle fans and without the right personnel, there is little reason to expect anything more from the Eagles on both sides of the ball.

The Eagles rank 24th in the NFL gaining 1009 total offensive yards good for 334 yards-per-game. There are five teams in the NFL that have gained 1,300 total offensive yards ore more. The NFC East rival Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL gaining 1,472 total yards and averaging 491 yards-per-game. There is one category that the Eagles lead in the NFL rankings and it is not one to be admired. They have turned the ball over to the opponent 8 times and so far, have turned the ball over on 21% of their drives this season. No NFL team can win games with performance measures this bad.

Here is a tremendous money line betting system that supports the 49ers and will cause even greater depression for the Eagle fans. This system has gone 27-1 for 96% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams using the money line and are a mistake-free team that are committing 0.75 or fewer turnovers-per-game and after a game earning a +2 turnover advantage and now facing an opponent with a -0.75 turnover differential.

The machine learning models project that the 49ers will score at least 28 points, will gain a minimum of 6 yards-per-play, and will have fewer turnovers than the Eagles. The 49ers are 81-8 straight-up (SU), and 67-22 against-the-spread (ATS) for 75% winning bets since 1990 when scoring 28 or more bets. Further, the 49ers are a stellar 21-2 SU and 18-5 ATS for 78% winning bets in home games when they score 28 or more points and average a minimum of 6.0 yards-per-play. Last, they are a 17-0 SU and 15-2 ATS for 88% wining bets when they have met or exceeded the projected all three of the performance measures. Take the San Francisco 49ers as a Best Bet NFL Pick.

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
4: 25 PM EST, October 4, 2020

7-Star Best bet on the Raiders
7-Star best bet on the ‘UNDER’

3-Star Reverse action parlay using the Raiders and the ‘UNDER’

Here is a simple to use betting system that has made a ton of dough over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to be on underdsogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a home win during the first four weeks of the season.

Supporting the ‘UNDER’ is a system that has earned a 24-5 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 83% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are bet the ‘UNDER’ with any team in game with a posted total of 49 or more points after one or more straight losses and is facing an opponent on a three-game or more win streak.

The machine learning tools project that the Raiders will gain at least 7 yards-per-pass play and score between 22 or more points. When they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 13-8 SU record and 17-4 ATS mark good for 81% winning bets that covered by an average of 7 points.

Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
1:00 PM EST, October 4, 2020

7-Star graded play on the Minnesota Vikings

Both teams are 0-3 and they both know that only four teams have ever made the playoffs after an 0-3 start and none after an 0-4 start. This betting system supports the Vikings and has earned a 28-7 ARTS mark good for 82% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are to bet on road teams that are coming off a home cover ATS, but lost the game SU and has not won a game on the season.

This system works against the Texans and has earned a 42-16 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after they posted two consecutive games in which their defense forced zero turnovers.

The machine learning models project that the Vikings will score between 24 and 30 points and will pass for a minimum of 225 yards. In past games in which the Vikings met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a solid 13-4 SU and ATS record good for 76% wining bets  over the last five seasons. In the same manner, the Texans are 2-7 SU and ATS when they have allowed these measures to an opponent since 2016.

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys
1:00 PM, October 4, 2020

7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Dallas Cowboys

The Public is on the Cowboys at a price of -5 and that is not surprising given that the Browns have been a dysfunctional franchise for most of the past decade. 68% of more than 1200 betting tickets that I track from 20 different sportsbooks are on the Cowboys and 87% of the total money bet on this game. So, we have the public and the larger betting professionals on the same side. This is not unusual, and it is not reflecting an extreme betting flow that would warrant a contrarian bet supporting the Browns.

The Cowboys could have been 0-3 on the season had it not been for an incredible comeback on the road against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2. It can be reasoned too, that they might have been 3-0 if a few breaks had gone there way. The one certainty is the Cowboys offense is quite good and will be difficult for any defense to contain this season.

The Cowboys have tallied 1,472 yards or 490 yards-per-game and ranks best in the NFL by 100 total yards over the second-best Green Bay Packers. While it is unlikely that the Cowboys will be able to maintain a near-500 yards-per-game offense, they will have few games in which they will not gain a minimum of 375 offensive yards. Despite all the yards gained they have scored 88 points that place them 8th in scoring offense.

Turnovers at critical points in scoring drives have been a problem for the Cowboys, but one that can be corrected. They rank first in the league having run 236 offensive plays on37 total drives. They have suffered a turnover on 16.2% of their drives ranking fifth-worst in the NFL. By way of comparison, there are four teams in the NFL that have a turnover percentage under 5% of their total drives and includes the Kansas City Chiefs (3.4%), the San Francisco 49ers (3.2%), the Tennessee Titans (3.0%), and the Green Bay Packers, who have yet to have a turnover. The Cowboys will have a greater focus on ball handling and as a result, their scoring drive numbers will increase while the turnover measures decline.

The betting lines imply a Cowboys win by the final score of 31-25 given the 56-point total and that the Cowboys are 5-point home favorites. The models project that Dallas will score 28 or more points in this game. The Cowboys are a solid 50-15 straight-up (SU) and 47-18 against-the-spread (ATS) for 72% winning bets when scoring 28 or more points in games played since 2010. In games in which they scored 28 or more points and were installed as 3.5 to 7.5-point favorites, they are 27-6 SU and 24-9 ATS for 73% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 6.4 points.

Since 2010, the Browns are 1-16 SU and 5-11-1 ATS in games as an underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points and allowed 28 or more points. Take the Dallas Cowboys as an NFL Best Bet minus the points.

Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM EST, October 4, 2020

Here is a solid and simple betting system that has earned an 83-43 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to be on underdogs that are faincg an opponent off a SU home win during the first four weeks of the regular season.

The Machine learning models project that the Dolphins will score at least 24 points and gain a minimum of 6.5 yards-per-play. In past games in which the Dolphins bet or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 9-2 SU record and 8-2 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets since 2016.

Denver (0-3) vs NY Jets (0-3)
8:20 PM EST, October 1, 2020
Thursday Night Football

7-Star MLB Best Bet on the Jets

Let us start with a proven betting system that has earned a 37-12 ATS record good for 76% winning bets over the last 5 seasons. The system instructs us to bet on underdogs that are facing a team with a terrible turnover metric farcing 1 or less turnovers-per-game and are coming off a game in which they had a -2 or worse turnover margin.

The machine learning models project that the Jets defense will get the job done tonight allowing 85 or fewer rushing yards. 20 or fewer points, and contain the Bronco offense to less than 300 yards. In past games, in which Denver’s offense had performances equal to or worse then these projections they have posted a losing 7-39 SU record and 7-38-1 ATS mark good for 15% wins since 1990 and are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS failing to cover by an average of 11 points since 2016.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
8:15 PM EST, September 28, 2020

10-Star Titan on the Baltimore Ravens

Travel related issues for the Chiefs as they are coming off a trip to LA and defeated the Chargers in a hard-fought 23-20 win and failed to cover the spread as 9-point favorites. They now play another road trip to the East Coast to face an excellent Baltimore Ravens team. Last September the Ravens visited Arrowhead and lost 33-28  to the Chiefs and failed to cover as 4-point underdogs. So, revenge is clearly a factor for the Ravens, in what may be a preview of the AFC Conference Championship game.

So, teams that are coming off a road win installed as a favorite against an opponent on the West Coast and is now traveling again to face an opponent on the East Coast and a team they defeated last season are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS failing to cover the spread by 9.4 points.

The machine learning models project that the Ravens will win this game by double digits. The Ravens are projected to outrush the Chiefs by at least a margin of 2:1 (more than twice as many rushing yards). In addition, they are projected to gain at least 1.2 yards-per-play more than the Chiefs. In past games in which the Ravens doubled their opponent rushing yards they have gone on to earn a 44-3 SU mark and 33-14-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. When the Ravens have doubled the opponents rushing yards and outgained them by an average of 1.2 YPPL they have earned a 37-1 SU record and 34-4 ATS for 90% winning bets.

4:25 PM EST, September 27, 2020
NCAAF 7-Star Best Bet on the Detroit Lions

This betting system is incredible and has produced a 25-3 ATS record for 89% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. So, it is a very rare one, but when this system is activated, it is for very strong reasons. The system requires us to bet on road dogs that are facing a host that allowed 24 or more points on defense last season and are coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points.

The machine learning tools project that the Lions will score 24 or more points and average a minimum of 5.3 yards-per-play. In past games when they met or exceeded these measures as an underdog they have gone to a solid 27-12 ATS record for 69% winning bets.

Raiders vs Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
1:00 PM EST, September 27, 2020
7-Star Best Bet on the Las Vegas Raiders

It has been 19 years since Jon Gruden was head coach of the Raiders and lost 16-13 in a highly scrutinized playoff game in Foxborough. Late in the fourth quarter it appeared that Tom Brady, who at the time few people knew his name, had fumbled the ball. Upon further review the official reversed the decision and scored it as an incomplete pass under the obscure “luck rule”. For Jon Gruden that single play has never faded in his memory since his Raiders had control of the game and were winning.

The Raiders have the personnel on both sides of the ball to be contenders for a playoff berth. They are coming off a home win installed as an underdog against a perennial playoff team in the New Orleans Saints. However, the Raiders are a money-burning 3-16 against-the-spread following a home win as an underdog since 2010. This trend by itself is not very meaningful if the present Raiders are a winning record team. That trend evolved over a period of losing seasons. So, always be careful when looking at specific team trends.

The good news is that the Raiders are a solid 19-8 ATS for 70% winning bets coming off a dominating win that featured 34 or more minutes in time-of-possession and 24 or more first downs. Further, head coach Jon Gruden is an outstanding 22-9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points in all games he has coached.

In 2019, the Raiders scored 85 points in the first quarter and 110 points in the second for a total of 195 first-half points. Then the second half became a challenge and in some games a disaster scoring just 27 points in the third and 76 in the fourth for a total of 103 second-half points. Their second-half output was less than what they scored in the second quarter alone last season. So far in 2020, the scoring is vastly improved averaging 34 points-per-game and have scored 34 points in each half.

The 2019 season saw far too many check down passes by QB Derek Carr. There were 156 short right, 140 short middle, and 120 short left pass attempts for a combined total of 416 pass attempts. Carr attempted 513 passes and completed 361 for a 64% completing percentage. However, only 19% of his passes thrown were beyond 20 yards and that allowed defenses to bring safeties closer to the line of scrimmage to stop the run and blitz Carr.

In 2020, the Raiders have not looked for the deep ball and have an offensive scheme designed to minimize mistakes and move the chains in a physical style of play. This will open more play action pass plays because the Raiders ground attack must be respected by opposing defensive units.

The machine learning models project that both teams will score a minimum of 20 points. The Raiders when on the road are 36-44 straight-up (SU) and 55-23-2 against-the-spread (ATS) for 70.5% winning bets since 1990 and 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2016 when both teams score 20 or more points.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
1:00 PM EST, September 27, 2020
7-Star Upset Alert on the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points 

The Philadelphia Eagles season is on the line having lost their first two games in horrific fashion when they host another 0-2 team in the Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles roster has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball and many new names will now be starters and expected to contribute significantly to this matchup. 

Those statements do not address the monumental problem the Eagles must solve with so many holes in the dam. Starting with the offensive line, LG Seumalo will miss several weeks with a knee injury. Pro Bowl RG Pederson is out for the year after tearing his achilleas in preseason drills.  The Eagles are struggling mightily on both sides of the ball. The run defense is awful, too many drives stall and end up not scoring, no discipline defending play action pass plays. The Rams, who defeated the Eagles last week, led the NFL with the most play action pass plays run in 2019. So, for the Eagle defense to not be prepared for that scheme is bizarre indeed.

So, we know the Bengals are road underdogs of 6-points and lost 35-30 on the road at the Cleveland Browns, but managed to get an against-the-spread (ATS) win as 6-point dogs. The Eagles were throttled 37-19 by the Rams and never led in the game.

Having massive databases at my fingertips is a luxury when working on matchup and situational analyses. So, I bet you wanted to know how 0-2 SU and ATS teams that were favored in both games in Week 1 and 2 have done in Week 3. Ewell, these slow starters are 9-7 SU for 56% wins and 9-6-1 ATS for 60% winning bets since 1990.  If the team lost at home in Week 2 are 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS for 69% winners if playing at home in Week 3. Lastly, if these 0-2 SU and ATS teams were a playoff team from the previous season they are 16-14 SU and 19-11 ATS for 63% winning bets.

For his career Wentz is 32-27 SU, 28-31 ATS, and the ‘Over’ is 29-28 with two pushes. In last week’s loss to the Rams Wentz had no touchdown passes and marked the 8th time in his career that he recorded zero TD passes. That horrific performance level accounts for 14% of the 59 games he has played and must improve if he is to keep his starting QB job at the NFL level.

The good news, though, is that Wentz has thrown a single TD pass in five of the seven games following a game getting shutout from the scoring endzone. In 2016 in a home game against the Falcons he had a second consecutive game with zero TD passes and only once in a road game at Seattle in 2016 did he throw more than 1 TD pass getting two of them in that game. In not one of those 7 games did he have more TD passes than interceptions. Not Once!

Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
8:20 PM EST, September 24, 2020
7-Star NFL Titan on the Miami Dolphins

Not one week goes by that the Miami media does not mention the calming influence and command of the huddle that Fitzpatrick bring to the team. Isaiah Ford was a Week 13 call-up from the practice squad in Week 13 last year, he has benefitted the most from Fitzpatrick’s extreme knowledge of the game. Since Week 13 of last season, Ford has caught 30 passes on 44 targets gaining 325 yards and averaging a solid 7.4 yards-per-catch.

In last week’s loss to the Bills, Fitzpatrick completed 31 of 47 passes for 328 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. All his metrics combined for an impressive 100.3 quarter-back-rating (QBR) against one of the better defensive units in the AFC. Ford was targeted more than DeVante Parker and Ford will steadily become an increasing part of the offensive game plan. A definite must-have on your DFS NFL team.

This betting system has earned a solid 86-50 ATS record good for 63% winning bets and a money-making 20% return-on-investment (ROI) spanning the past 15 seasons. The system instructs us to bet on teams in the first four weeks of the seasons facing a conference foe installed as dogs of 1.5 to 6 points and a team that won five or fewer games in the previous season.

So, it gets better when we drill down through the data and add game location as a parameter. For teams that are on the road and meeting the parameters above improves the betting system to 38-17-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

Not satisfied yet. When the field surface is factored in, which is grass in the confines of TIAA Field, the road warrior is an impressive 27-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

The machine learning models project that the Dolphins will have more passing yards. will average 6.2 yards-per-play and will have a higher YPPL ratio than the Jaguars. In past games when the Dolphins have met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a solid 21-10-1 ATS record good for 68% winning bets and a 28.5% ROI in games played over the last 15 seasons.

8:15 PM EST, September 21, 2020
NFL 7-Star Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints

In Week 1 the Saints faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their new QB Tom Brady. The Saints were fired up to send a message to the Bucs and the NFC Conference that Mr. Brady was not the new sheriff in the NFC South with a 34-23 SU and ATS win. Brees completed 60% of his 30 pass attempts for 160 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He took 97% of the snaps running 67 total plays and was sacked only once.

Brees and the Saints are 14-8 SU and ATS for 64% winning bets following a home win in which Brees threw for fewer than 190 passing yards. The Saints with Brees starting are 25-18 SU and 25-17-1 ATS for 60% winning bets coming off a home ATS win and playing their next game on a grass surface and 6-3 ATS for 67% ATS winning bets since 2016. The Saints are 10-5 ATS for 67% winning bets when coming off a home ATS win and facing a team that was not in the playoffs of the previous season. Last, Saints are an impeccable 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets when installed as a road favorite and facing a team that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season.

This betting system is active for a bet on the Saints tonight and has earned a remarkable 28-5 ATS mark for 85% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. The system requires us to be on road teams that are facing an opponent that had a struggling defense in the previous season that allowed an average of 24 points-per-game and are coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points.

The machine learning models project that the Saints will average at least 7.0 yards-per-pass-attempt and will have at least 5 more first downs than the Raiders. The Saints are 54-10 SU for 84% wins and 54-9-1 ATS for 86% winning bets that covered by an average of 11 points when they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures since 2002.

Kansas City vs LA Chargers

7-Star Upset Alert Titan on the Chargers

Here is a solid betting system that supports the Dolphins and is quite simple. It has earned a 77-35 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to bet on underdogs that are facing a team coming off a home win spanning the first four weeks of the regular season. This system has earned a 16-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons.

The machine learning models project that Miami will have a better Yards-per-play ratio and have no more than one turnover. In past games in which the Chargers were home underdogs and met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 7-1 SU record and a 7-1 ATS record covering by an average of 14 points for a robust 67% ROI. Also, the Chargers are 51-14 SU and 40-24-1 ATS in home games and gaining at least 5.75 or more yards-per-play and when a home dog they are 8-3 for 72% ATS.

Buffalo vs Miami

September 20, 2020, 1:00 PM EST
7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Miami Dolphins

Here is a solid betting system that supports the Dolphins and is quite simple. It has earned a 77-35 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to bet on underdogs that are facing a team coming off a home win spanning the first four weeks of the regular season. This system has earned a 16-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons.

The machine learning models project that Miami will have a better Yards-per-play ratio and have no more than one turnover. In past games in which the Dolphins were home underdogs and met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 13-3 SU record and a 13-1-2 ATS record covering by an average of 9.8 points for a robust 68% ROI.

1:00 PM EST, September 20, 2020
NFL 7-Star Best Bet on the Detroit Lions

Here is a betting system to start things off that has earned a 50-21 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The system instructs us to be on underdogs that are facing an opponent that averaged 5.5 or more yards-per-play last season and is coming off a stellar offensive game in which they gained 400 or more yards.

We were on the Packers last week in their road upset win over the Vikings, but now against them. Teams ebb and flow and when they are coming off a strong outing and above average performance levels there is a propensity to revert back to the mean. Detroit outplayed Chicago last week on both sides of the ball and found a way to lose that game. They will not do that again in this matchup.

The machine learning projections call for the Lions to win the turnover batter, have more first downs, and average at least 4.7 yards-per-rush. In past games in which they met or exceeded those performance measures they went on to earn a perfect 20-0 ATS mark 19-1 SU and covered the spread by an average of 13 points.

Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
1:00 PM EST, September 20, 2020
Atlanta Falcons 7-Star Best Bet Titan

Both teams come into this game off losses and no one ever wants to start 0-2 out of the gate. The Cowboys had a tough game against a physical Rams team, but their inability to convert on third downs (3-12 25%) and move the chains was the main reason they lost. Time-of-possession was heavily in favor of the Rams, who had an 11:16 edge, but Dallas ran 69 plays to the Rams 72 plays. The Rams had a 10-minute edge in the first quarter with the remaining three quarters equal in time-of-possession.

The Rams did convert well on third downs (8-17 53%) and had more scoring chances than Dallas attained. One of those scoring chances ended with Goff throwing an interception, which was the only turnover of the game for either team. Dallas had just one drive in the first quarter that started on their own 26 and ended 6 plays later their 48-yard line. The Rams took their first possession of the season and drove 70 yards on 7 plays to score a touchdown. Their second drive of the quarter ended at the Dallas 10-yard line after missing a short field goal attempt.

This system is one you want to record and use for every NFL season as it has earned an incredible 27-5 against-the-spread record good for 84% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system requires are to bet on underdogs that were excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing-yards-per-game (PYPG) last season and after a game in which their defense allowed 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt (PYPA). This combination of performance parameters has recorded a near-perfect 17-1 ATS over the last five seasons and is 8-0 ATS over the last three seasons.

The machine learning models project that the Falcons will score more than 27 points, pass for at least 260 yards, and will not be outgained by more than 65 total yards. In past games in which the Falcons met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to earn a 33-7 SU mark and 29-10-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets.

8:20 PM EST, September 17, 2020
NFL 7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Bengals

The Browns first home game of the year will take place tonight and they could use a packed house to support them to a much-needed win. They will have to do that on their own. It is not the best of situations for the Browns, who were hammered by the Ravens last week. Teams that are playing at home after failing to cover the spread by at least 23 points and won fewer than seven games last season are 8-18 SU and 9-17 ATS for 35% in the first five weeks of the regular season.

Here is a betting system that supports the Bengals and has earned a solid 103-52 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets since 1990 and instructs us to plat on road underdogs facing a conference foe that had a losing record in their previous season. This system has recorded a nice money-making 13-4 ATS record over the last three seasons and 26-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The machine learning tools are projecting that the Bengals will gain at least 125 rushing yards and average at least 7 yards-per-pass attempt. In past games in which the Bengals have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 52-15-1 SU record for 78% wins and 49-17-2 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2000. The Browns are 2-29-1 SU and 8-24 ATS for 25% when they have allowed an opponent to meet or exceed those performance measures in games played since 2010.

7:15 PM EST, September 14, 2020
NFL 7-Star Best Bet Titan on the NY Giants

The Steelers under head coach Tomlin has been a terrific franchise, but they have been slow starters in September games – at east against the spread where Tomlin-led Steelers teams are just 8-19 ATS in road games over the first four weeks of the season.

Ny Giants tackle Nate Solder opted out of the season and there are three new offensive lineman set to start tonight. They are elite athletes and have excellent skills in first round draft pick Andrew Thomas 6-5 315 from Georgia, RT Cam Fleming 6-6 320 from Stanford, and center Nick Gates 6-5 307 from Nebraska. I do believe this youthful OL has the athleticism and quickness to contain the Steeler defensive front and open up holes for Barkley to dart through untouched. Once Barkley gets into the open field he is extremely difficult to bring down by any defensive unit. This will then open up play action pass plays catching the Steelers in man coverage or in Sam-Will blitz schemes.

From the machine learning tools and models the Giants are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards, have more first downs than the Steelers, and have more total offensive yards than the Steelers. In past games in which the Giants have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a solid 89-16 SU record and 85-20 ATS for 81% winning bets since 1990; 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS since 2015. The Steelers are 3-3-1 SU and 1-6 ATS the spread failing to cover by an average of 8 points when their opponent has gained 125 or more rushing yards and are installed as road favorites since 2015.

Dallas Cowboys vs LA Rams

8:20PM EST, September 13, 2020
7-Star Best Bet on the Los Angeles Rams

From the machine learning tools, the Rams are projected to score at least 27 points, average more than 7 yards-per-pass attempt, and gain 400 or more total offensive yards. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these three performance measures they are 48-20 ATS and 62-9 SU winning the game by an average of 12 points; 28-10-2 ATS when in home games and an amazing 12-1-1 ATS mark and covering the spread by an average of 11.5 points.

1:00 PM EST, September 13, 2020
NFL 7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Green Bay Packers

Let us start with a solid betting system that has earned a 100-53 ATS record for 65% winners over the last 35 seasons and instructs us to play on road dogs that are playing a divisional foe that had a struggling defense last season that allowed >= 5.4 yards-per-play. This betting system has earned a solid 10-3 ATS record over the last three seasons and 19-7 ATS over the last five seasons and 39-20 ATS over the last 10 seasons and reflects the strong consistent returns it has provided to backers.

Green Bay won both meetings against the Vikings and have many favorable matchups on both sides of the ball.

From the machine learning tools and models the Packers are projected to outgain the Vikings on the ground and have a better, more efficient yards-per-points ratio. In other words, the Packers will need fewer yards gained to score a single point on average. In past games in which the Packers met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a perfect 29-0 ATS record and covered the spread by an average of 15.6 points. Take the Packers as a 7-Star Upset Alert Titan

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons

September 12, 2020, 1:00 PM EST
7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Atlanta Falcons

Kickoff - 1:00 PM EST, September 13, 2020
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia
Coverage: FOX
Seattle favored by 2.5 points with an over/under of 49-points.

The Mercedes-Benz Stadium is one of the best venues in all of sports but will remain without fans for at least the first two home games of the Atlanta Flacons schedule. The Atlanta offense has always been dangerous for most opponents and will be better this season having added running back Todd Gurley through free agency and TE Hayden Hurst, who was acquired in a trade with Baltimore.

The Falcons running game ranked 30th in the NFL gaining just 1,361 rushing yards as compared to a league average of 1806 rushing yards. Further, the Falcons ranked 29th in the NFL with just 332 rushing attempts. They went 1-7 over the first eight games and fell behind early in games forcing them to abandon most or all the run plays. When an NFL team is behind in a game, especially by two or more scores, play action gets no respect from a defense and is simply a worthless formation.

Gurley has been banged up physically over his career, but still provides a new and real run threat for all defenses to respect. His presence will provide more opportunities to use play action pass routes, which is where the addition of Hurst and his above average speed will be a huge asset this season.

The running game fell into the statistical abyss for the Falcons, which put tremendous pressure on Matt Ryan to complete difficult passes and sustain scoring drives. The Falcons through the most passes in the NFL with a number no one really likes 666 throws form scrimmage. The Cincinnati Bengals were a distant second with 617 pass attempts and by comparison the terrific Baltimore Ravens offense that led the league in scoring ranked last with 439 pass attempts. So, the Falcons can expect a much better balance of run and pass plays making it far more difficult for defensive coordinators to prepare to defend.

Matt Ryan threw just 24 passes that were targeted down the deep middle of the field. The Tampa Bay Bucs ranked first with 37 throws in this category by way of comparison. With the addition of Hurst at TE and his speed it is a sure bet you will see the middle of the field exploited by the Falcons whenever they can get Hurst in man coverage by a linebacker. The Falcons ranked 17th in the NFL running 113 pass plays using play action and gained 827 yards from those plays. By comparison, Jared Goff and the Rams ran 194 play action plays and gained a league-best 1,564 passing yards. Gurley was part of that offense.

Well, there are gaggles of them of ocurse being spit out of my vast NFL database that can go back to 1980 if it provides meaningful results. Coach Carroll is just 3-14 ATS in games played in September since being hired by the Seahawks; 2-10 ATS in road games that have occurred in the first two weeks of the season.

The Falcons are a stout 19-6 ATS in home games that occurred in the first two weeks of the season. Moreover, they are 4-0 ATS as home dogs in the first two weeks of the season spanning the last 10 seasons.

The Falcons are projected to execute at least 25 rushing plays, average at least 4.5 rushing-yards-per-attempt and attain a yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 11.5 in this matchup. The Falcons are 48-8 SU and 37-15-4 ATS for 71% winning bets in home games when they have averaged a minimum of 4.5 RYPA and executed at least 25 rushing plays. When they have achieved the rushing metrics and had a YPPT ratio of not more than 11.5, the Falcons have earned a perfect 16-0 ATS mark covering the number by an average of 12 points. 

The Seahawks when traveling on the road are a near imperfect 1-10 SU and ATS and failing to cover the spread by an average of 15 points when they have allowed an opponent to rush the ball for a minimum of 25 attempts, gaining average of 4.5 RYPA, and allow an opponent YPPT ratio of 11.5 or lower.

R

The NFL season starts this Thursday with the defending Super Bowl 54 Champion Chiefs hosting the AFC South Divisional Champion Houston Texans. This is also a rematch of last year’s Chiefs 51-31 win over the Texans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. In that game the Chiefs were installed as 10-point home favorites and the game total line was 51 points. In Week 1, the Chiefs are favored by an identical 10-point betting line and the total has creeped up to 55 points.

No all defending Super Bowl Champions have started the following season with a home game. There have been 16 SB Champions, who have started the season with a home celebration and are 14-2 straight-up (SU), 11-4-1 against-the-spread (ATS), and near-even 7-8-1 ‘OVER’ record. Since 2002, this is the first time that a reigning Champion has been installed as a double-digit favorite. Reigning Champions installed as favorites are 12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS, and 8-6 ‘UNDER’ in Week 1 and when favored by four or more points sport an impressive 9-1 SU record, 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets, and 6-4 tilt to the ‘UNDER’. So, no hangover whatsoever for the home fed reigning Champions.

The news remains positive for the reigning champions as they sport a 12-2 SU record, 9-4-1 ATS, and 7-6-1’ UNDER’ record when facing a playoff team from last season in Week 1. Opponents in Week 1 that were a previous season playoff team and facing a reigning Champion that is not in their division are a money-burning 2-14 SU, 4-11-1 ATS for 27% winning bets, and an 8-7-1 ‘OVER’ record in Week 1.

This offense is unstoppable when Reid’s play calling is clicking with this offensive sets. The Chiefs ranked 5th averaging 28.2 points-per-game with 30 receiving touchdowns, 16 rushing touchdowns, and 1 kickoff return for touchdown. They led the NFL making 34 field goal attempts on 38 tries and reflects the Chiefs struggles at times in the red zone. In their games, the Chiefs just knew that putting points on the scoreboard despite failed red zone conversions, was the recipe to win games. The Chiefs will average more points-per-game this season just by cutting down their field goal attempts in the red zone to 25.

The Chiefs ranked second in the NFL scoring on 49.4% of all drives and averaging 2.62 points-per-drive with the Baltimore Ravens ranking first and scoring points on 52% of their drives and averaging 2.62 points-per-drive. The Chiefs ranked fourth-best in the NFL taking care of the football and had a turnover on only 8% of their drives.

The Chiefs offense is designed to maximize yards-after-the-catch (YAC) much ion the way the San Francisco 49ers West Coast offense was designed and the same West Coast scheme Reid ran while the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. The number one Texans defensive weakness was ranking 30th in the NFL allowing 2,067 YAC.

So, double digit favorites that have averaged at least 11 yards-per-completion spanning their last eight games and facing an opponent, who made the playoffs last season and allowed at least 375 points in their previous season are a solid 72-54-2 ATS for 57% winning bets and 116-12 SU for 90% wins and winning these games by an average of 15.1 points-per-game. Last, if this game takes place on a Thursday night, the double-digit favorites are 6-0 SU winning by an average of 16.5 points and 5-0-1 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 7.77 points.

There are more than 200 separate parameters in my NFL database and many of my machine learning tools combine many of these parameters that work well together in identifying ATS winners. These types of advanced mathematical applications are applied in the same way in many other industries, for instance, the Life Sciences and Biotech sectors. The combinatorial algorithms, for instance, will look to combine a combination of parameters (column names) that serve to optimize total return-on-investment (ROI) exactly in the same manner that I use them in stock market projections.

For this matchup, the Chiefs are projected to average at least 3.1 points-per-drive in this game against the Texans. The Chiefs are 17-5 SU and 17-5 ATS for 78% winning bets when they have met or exceeded a 3.1 points-per-drive ratio in games played over the last three seasons. Further, when installed as a home favorite and averaging  a minimum of 3.1 points-per-drive ratio they are a resounding 9-1 SU winning by an average of 16 points and 8-2 ATS for 80% and covering the spread by an average of 11.1 points.

Moreover, the Chiefs are projected to score 27 or more points and outgain the Texans by at least 80 yards. In past games where the Chiefs have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 64-3 SU record winning the games by an average of 19.6 points and a 61-4-2 ATS record good for 94% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 15.8 points.

By knowing these projections, you will find yourself watching the game and monitoring their progress. I also provide situational trends at the end of each quarter that can also serve to provide even more money-making betting opportunities that have proven track records.

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

6:30 PM EST, Sunday, February 2, 2020

NFL 10-Star Best Bet on the San Francisco 49ers
7-Star 'UNDER'
49ers win by 13,14,15 points 16:1 at 5 Dimes

I will not  waste your time with superfluous narrative. The 49ers will win by 13 or more points and this is based first on the machine learning projections and then my own fundamental research and indepth matchup analyses. On paper the 49ers are the best team on both sides of the ball. I hear a few of you moaning and wish you could debate this with over a few craft beers. 

The Chiefs linebackers Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson are not getting it done this season. I never intend or would want to put down any athlete at any level of the game played, but they are one of the worst duos in the NFL this season by many measures. Wilson is a former Cowboy, who has been torched this season as a Chief and allowed a 115 passer rating, which was the eighth worst mark in the NFL for linebackers with at least 200 snaps play this season. 

Hitchens got a big contract via free-agency by the Chiefs, but he steadily became a target by opponents whenever possible. He si very vulnerable and exposed in this game whenever he will lineup on the perimeter to cover aany of the 49ers running backs in man coverage. 

When the Chiefs bring in their third linebacker in Reggie Ragland it is almost always to help stop the run. However, teams have used play action pass so that the trio of Chief linebaqckers do not get the depth  necessary to cover the the middle of the field. This will be something to watch in the game for sure and expect Dee Dee Samuel to be targeted in these prime situations for the 48ers. 

George Kittle will be a nightmare in any coverage situation the Chiefs decide to use. The main reason is that the Chiefs lost their starting safety Juan Thornhill, who tore his left ACL in the final game of the regular season. His absence is going to make it even tougher for the Chiefs to adjust to what the 49ers bring to the huddle and pre-snap. The Chiefs faced the 21 personnel on 102 snaps and used five and six defensive backs in 48 of those snaps. The 49ers opponents used four defensive backs on 77% of the 21 personnel plays run by the 49ers and many of those defenses simply stayed in their base defense,. 

The bottom line is that this will put Kittle in optimal high-percentage man-coverage situations. This is one of the reasons I like the risk of taking Kittle as the MVP of this Super Bowl even though there has never been a tight end that has won the MVP – not even Gronk. 

The 49ers have run the most basic of plays and the ones I still remember repeating 50-timres in High Svhool practices. The basic trap play was used on third-and-long situations (less than eight yards) and ran to perfection. Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine should have recognized this since he ran these exact elementary plays to several State Championships at Central Bucks West High School, a Philadelphia suburb. 

The 49ers do a great job in getting offensive leverage on a defense by moving either Kittle or FB Kyle Juszczvk in motion or moving one of them and then the other seconds prior to the snap. This allows Jimmy G to see where the weakness will be in the defense and is similar to what the Patriots have used with their tight ends for two decades. 

The Mesh offensive scheme has been around for about the last 10 seasons in both College and NFL playbooks and I expect to see the 49ers use to exploit the middle of the field and put even more pressure on the Chiefs linebackers. The all curl scheme looks to exploit a defender in a 2-on-1 advantage whereas the mesh scheme focuses on the middle of the field and two shallow crossing routes that generally have a 3-on-2 advantage for the offense. The scheme also includes a vertical route with a WR in a favorable matchup or for the running back, who will be covered by a slower linebacker. Jimmy G will assign the big play route prior to the snap after seeing the defensive alignment. This is where I believe the 49ers will have big play opportunities or a result that keeps the chains moving checking down to the crossing routes.   

The 49ers have the best front four in the game with all four linemen capable of sacking the quarterback. They recorded 57 sacks with Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and DeForest Buckner all having at least 7.5 sacks this season. Teams in the Super Bowl, who recorded 55 or more sacks in the regular season and the playoffs are 6-1 ATS in the Super Bowl and the ‘UNDER’ is 5-2. 

Prop Bets

Koepka Birdies vs Kittle Receptions

A fun prop bet is for Kittle to have more receptions than PGA Tour Golfer Brooks Koepka has birdies. The Phoenix Open is taking place with the Fenway-like Stadium surrounding the par-3 17th hole. The course is going to play tougher than in previous years and it will be more difficult to go low. The key point is birdies, which does not include Eagles, Double Eagles, or Holes-in-one. There are a few Eagle holes on the course so that would then make it even harder to make six or more birdies.

St. Johns Points vs Kittle Reception Yards

Another one I like here is I think Kittle will go over 100 receiving yards in a losing or winning cause and we are getting paid well to assume this risk with Kittle +3.5 underdog and +105 juice.

Travis Kelce and his MVP Bid

There are 20 prop bets on Travis Kelce at the 5Dimes sportsbook. If you like the Chiefs then Kelce will be a big part of the game plan against an extremely strong and lightning-fast 49ers defensive unit. If the 49ers are successful at containment on Chiefs quarterback Mahomes, then Kelce will be the relief valve receiver and has the potential for a huge game.

I do not normally like laying -170 wood on any prop bet but in this game, the odds are high that Kelce will exceed the 5.5 receptions line. Betting ‘OVER’ 76.5 receiving yards paying only -105 juice is a no-brainer and is better risk-reward than the ‘OVER’ 5.5 receptions. It would be hard to imagine a game in which Kelce had more than 77 receiving yards and five or fewer catches.

I like Kelce to score a TD in the first half and receiving +280 NFL Super Bowl odds in return.

Then the fun props taking Kelce at -2.5 and -145 juice to have more receiving yards than Duston Johnson’s score in the final round at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

The MVP Bets

George Kittle is ranked as the 4th most-likely MVP recipient at +900 at 5Dimes. Travis Kelce is ranked 9th most-likely MVP recipient at +1900. The last MVP bet I will make is on 49ers rookie defensive lineman Nick Bosa, who is 7th most-likely to win the MVP at +1850.

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs

3:05 PM ESTPM EST, January 19, 2020
NFL: 7-Star Best Bet on the Tennessee Titans

The Chiefs are in a classic Catch-22 situation. Should they choose to attempt to contain Henry they will expose themselves to the passing arm of Ryan Tannehill, who was atop the NFL with a 135 quarterback Passer Rating Index and net yards-power-pass-attempt. It has been a long time since a quarterback led the league in both categories since throwing down field will logically cause more incomplete passes and potential interceptions.

Tannehill has not had to win games with his arm so far in the playoffs, which gives little scouting intelligence for the Chiefs to prepare for in this game. The Chiefs know that play action pass will be part of the TItans offensive scheme since they led the NFL with a total of 1,568 passing yards using play action.

The Chiefs will be at their most vulnerable in second and shorter than five yards. If the Titans use play action and the Chiefs are playing run stop it will leave every receiver on the field in man coverage with no safety help. Tannehill has been incredibly accurate with throws of any length and he will exploit any man-coverage situation downfield.

If the Chiefs show blitz and back out and the Titans are running the ball behind Henry the result will be a first down. Henry is gaining chunk yards meaning big gains that are rarely seen from run plays and more common from pass receptions and yards after the catch.

Tannehill and the Titan receivers led the NFL in average yards gained using play action by a wide margin. They used play action 124 times, which ranked 15th most in the NFL, but gained the most passing yards.

This situational betting system has earned a solid 79-44-2 against-the-spread (ATS) record spanning the last 10 seasons. The system instructs us to be on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that has a defense that allows an average of between 335 and 370 yards-per-game on the season and is facing an elite team that is gaining an average of 370 yards-per-game on the season.

From the predictive side of things, there is high probability that the Titans gain 100 or more rushing yards and teams in past Championship games that have attained this measure are a stout 24-13 SU and 24-13 ATS since 2000 including road warriors sporting a 7-8 SU record and an eye-popping 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning NFL picks.

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
8:15 PM EST
NFL Betting Odds: Ravens -10 (-110)

The line for this Divisional Playoff game opened with the Baltimore Ravens as a 10-point favorite and there has been a steady flow of bets on the Tennessee Titans that have pushed the line lower to 9.5 points across the marketplace as shown on the SBR NFL odds board. The Heritage Sportsbook has already moved the line to 9-points with only -105 juice.

When ever the public sentiment is squarely on one team in the NFL it will result in the that team failing to cover the spread far more often than cover it. It is even worse for them when the ‘Joes’ are backing an underdog. The Titans win over the Patriots was terrific for the team and franchise, but this will make the third week in a row they have had to travel and now they face the best team in the NFL, who had the week off resting.

I get it that the Titans are the darlings of the NFL having knocked off Darth Vader and the Evile Empire and that Derrick Henry looks like a run away unstoppable freight train. I will predict with a high degree of certainty that he will not rush for over 100 yards in this game.

The most surprising situation in the Titans win last week was that the Patriots head coach Bill Bellichick did not anticipate the Titans commitment to the run game. The adjustments that the defense did make failed to contain their ground attack.

To stop any power running back like Henry there is one simple truth. A defense must get penetration and pressure into the backfield to prevent Henry from accelerating through the A or B gaps. The Titans were not doing anything fancy or tricky and they executed the most basic fundamental set of riun plays to perfection. However, the Ravens defense does have the players to pressure the gaps and not allow Henry to get a head of steam before getting to the second level of defenders. It sounds odd, but the Ravens defense will force the Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is top-ranked in quarterback efficiency this season, to defeat them with his arm.

This situational betting system has been around for along time and it has earned an outstanding 18-6 against-the-spread (ATS) record. The system requires us to bet against a road underdog of 4 to 11 points and is coming two consecutive road wins including a 17-5 ATS mark when the road warrior has a winning record.

·        The Ravens are 7-0 ATS when facing a defense that has allowed 61% or higher pass completions in the second half of this season.

Harbaugh is 25-12 ATS following a game in which his team had 150 or fewer passing yards.

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles
4:30 PM EST, January 5, 2020
NFL 7-Star Bet on the Eagles

I can sum this game up with a few words and they are Home Dog and terrific defensive line. The Eagles defensive line has played fantastic football over the last four weeks and I think they are going to play at that level again in this matchup. The Seahawks and Eagles resemble M.A.S.H. units more than an NFL team given their page filling list of names on the injured list. The Seahawks to do not have a running back – at least one that is even 90% healthy or not unretired (love the poor grammar) as Marshawn Lynch is labeled. The Eagles defensive game plan will not include putting massive heat on Wilson, but rather massive containment and forcing to make throws instead of using his legs to extend plays.

Even the massive mismatches of the Seahawk wide recievers against the Eagles secondary will be minimized if the defensive line and stop the run and contain Wilson.

From the predictive side fo this game the Eagles will out gain the Seahawks by at least 80 yards in total offense and will have fewer turnovers. When the Eagles have attained this in previous home games they have gone on to a jaw-dropping 39-0 straight-up and 38-1 against-the-spread (ATS) and covered the spread by an average of 16 points!

  
Here is a big-time NFL situational betting system that has earned a solid 26-7 against-the-spread (ATS) record over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on a road team after week 8 of the regular including the playoffs that has a winning record and facing an opponent with a winning record of at least 73% and is coming off a road divisional win.

Some quick Hitters:
Saints are a winless 0-7 ATS in home games off a division game spanning the last three seasons.

Saints are 17-34 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

From the predictive side of things the Vikings are 30-15-1 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and gain more rushing yards than their opponent including a 22-2 ATS record when scoring at least 22 or more points.

Bet the Minnesota Vikings as a 7-Star Titan Bet

Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots
8:15 PM EST
10-Star New England Patriots

The public sentiment is that the Brady-Belichick era is OVER and the gold-plated wheel chair has been ordered for both of them by the Kraft family. Ha Ha. But seriously, how many times over the past 20 seasons have we herd the demise and that this is the year the Patriots are not the Patriots. Granted, this will be the biggest test of coaching genius for Belichick, but he has one of the best passing defenses in the NFL. 

I have drawn upon the connection to and the similarity of being bullish on a stock to being bullish on a sports team. A stock like Apple that has been in a bullish uptrend for several months and reached all-time highs in today’s price action will have pullbacks and corrections of the major gains made this year. These price declines do not indicate that the positive trend in prices has ended, but that price levels had become too expensive and reflected too much positive optimism for the future earnings of the company. 

The New England Patriots are the sports team version of Apple. There have been many times over the years where negative news caused a severe price correction in Apple stock. Those price declines proved to be awesome buying opportunities in the face of highly negative sentiment. This is exactly where the Patriots are right now. 

In the NFL when a double-digit underdog pulls off the upset it is always shocking news to most. However, the Dolphins had gone 5-4 in their last nine games and won their last two of three games. So, it was not the same Dolphins that were shutout in the first meeting between these two teams. 

Vegas did not tell us that the Patriots would win by the point spread of 17-points last week. What the line does tell us is where the lines makers believe there will be equal action on both sides of the ledger. Sol the 17-point NFL betting line seen on the NFL odds boards reflected human betting behavior and the lines maker anticipating a ton of bets being placed on the Patriots if they released a line that was in the 14.5-point area. 

So, now the betting public has shifted gears and thrown the baby out with the bath water – no, I am not calling Tommy a baby – and the line now is cheaply priced and offers us an after Christmas deal of the year to get on the Patriots. 

Take the Focus off 42-year-old Tom Brady
Head Coach Belichick has done one thing well in every game he has prepared for in his Hall-of-Fame-like career. That one task is to create a defensive scheme that takes away the opponent’s most significant strength. Last week’s loss was an exception that he did not see coming or one that was identified, and the execution of the scheme was poor. Whatever the case, I strongly belevie that Belichick will have the scheme that will make it extraordinarily difficult for a Ryan Tannehill-led offense to move the chains and score touchdowns in the red zone. 

Let us face facts that Brady has had one of the weakest wide receiver corps of his career. In 2018 receivers dropped 25 balls for a 4.;6% drop rate and in 2019 receivers dropped 34 balls for a 5.9% drop rate. He leads the league with 40 throw-away balls as compared to just 22 last season. 

The media says that it is a combination of the offensive line, wide receivers, and a diminished skill set of a 42-year old quarterback. Well, then I ask of these brilliant minds why has the offensive line given Brady an average of 2.5 seconds of pocket time as compared to 2.4 seconds in 2018. A tenth of a second is an hour for an NFL quarterback and often the difference between a sack and a completed pass play. 

At the end of this game the Patriots will have won because of their defense. 

·       The Patriots are 20-9 against-the-spread (ATS)  and covered these games by an average of 6.53 points-per-game in games taking place in the second-half of the season and the playoffs when facing a team with a modest win percentage between 51 and 60% since 2001. 

Here is an awesome betting system that does well using the money line and against the spread and has earned a 32-4 SU record for 89% winning bets using the money line over the past 10 seasons. Play on favorites after Week 8 using the money line that are coming a off one or more consecutive ‘over’ games and is a strong defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 points-per-game and are facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 points-per-game. 

Philadelphia vs NY Giants
4:25 PM EST
7-Star bet on the NY Giants

Wentz is coming off a monster game against the Cowboys where he did put the team on his back and carried to the victory. He threw for 319 passing yards and completed an outstanding 31 of his 40 pass attempts for an insane 77.5% complete percentage. He earned the second-highest average passing yards-per-attempt on the season at 8.48 and only the 9.56 he earned in Week1 against Washington was higher.

In a season in which he had few reliable receivers he completed 64.4% of his pass attempts for 3,750 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.

The biggest problems that Wentz and the Eagles offense faced each week was the inability to establish a significant ground attack that then would open up the play-action pass plays where Wentz would have extra time to survey the field knowing he had man-coverages. The Eagles rank 15th gaining 902 passing yards on play-action routes this season.

The Eagles running back Jordan Howard will be back in action to provide much-needed running yards. However, the Eagles took a big blow last week when Zack Ertz suffered a fractured rib. He did not practice Christmas Day and he is going to be a possible game-time decision. Anyone, who has had bruised ribs knows how painful it is to even take a breath so, I believe he will not be in action for this game.

Ertz leads the team with 135 targets, 88 receptions, and 916 receiving yards and then there is a huge drop-off to the second-best statistical receiver. So, without Ertz, Wentz now has no trusted receiver in the lineup. The Giants defense will be able to bring the safeties up to the box and attack the ground game and look to put pressure on Wentz to force throws.

This betting system is simple to use and understand. It has earned a 23-3-1 ATS record good for 89% winning bets since 1989. Play on any losing record team after Week 8 and is playing an opponent off an upset win as a home underdog and has a win percentage between 51 and 60% on the season.

This betting system has earned an incredible 10-1 ATS record that has covered the spread by 10.7 points-per-game since 2010.

Dallas vs Washington
4:25 PM EST, December 29, 2019
7-Star Titan Bet on the Dallas Cowboys
 
This situational betting system has earned a 20-7 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play on home favorites after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season and with the game taking place in the second half of the season.

Dallas suffered its fourth loss in their last five games with another brainless performance in a 17-9 setback at Philadelphia last weekend to fall a game behind the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. Even during their hapless stretch in the second-half of the season they remained in control of their playoff destiny due to the fact they play in the NFC Least Division. Now they need to win this game and get help from the Giants to upset the Eagles – which just might happen.

Not that he will be thinking about this, but Prescott needs 305 passing yards to surpass the single-season record held by Tony Romo, who had 4,903 passing yards. Facing the Redskins defense he just might due to as long as his ailing shoulder holds up in this game. So, look for him to get the ball out fast on quick-hitters and using the slant routes many times.

From the predictive side of things, the Cowboys are 15-5-1 ATS and have covered the spread by an average of eight points when they have scored more than 28 points as a home favorite of at least 7.5 points and had fewer turnovers than the opponent.  

NY Jets vs Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM EST, December 29, 2019
7-Star Titan Bet on the NY Jets
 
This situational betting system has earned a 46-23 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play on road teams in the month of December after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games.

The Jets have won five of their last seven games but a poor start to the season was too much to overcome and sealed a ninth straight season. The league's seventh-ranked defense allowing 324.1 yards allowed per game helped the Jets to a 16-10 win over Pittsburgh last week to hurt the Steelers' playoff chances. So, the Jets have been playing to win over the second-half of the season and will do the same today.

Despite the Bills starters seeing the majority of snaps I believe that the Jets will win this game. The Bills know they are either playing at Kansas City or at Houston next week and it will be very difficult for them to to focus on today’s game sine it is truly meaningless.

New England vs Miami
1:00 PM EST, December 29, 2019
7-Star Best Bet on the New England Patriots

This situational betting system has earned a solid 35-13 against-the-spread mark (ATS) good for 65% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet on home team that scored at least 35 points in the previous same-season matchup and with the foe coming off a home win.

From the predictive side of things, Patriots are 9-1 ATS when their defense has allowed 200 or fewer net passing yards in games played over the last three seasons. They are 51-14-2 ATS in home games in which they allowed not more than 75 rushing yards.

The Patriots are 35-3 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 15 points when they have allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards and outgained them by more than 150 total yards.

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
8:20 PM EST, December 23, 2019
10-Star Titan Bet on the Minnesota Vikings
 
Here are some key points:
This situational betting system has earned a robust 29-9-2 against-the-spread (ATS) record over the past 10 seasons. The system requires us to play on favorites, after having won three out of their last four games exact (not four out of four) and is now facing an opponent that has been a hot team having won eight or more out of their last 10 games.  If the favorite has won three or four out of their last four, the results produce more games to bet and a solid 42-12-2 ATS record for 72.1% winning bets.

From the predictive Machine Learning:
Vikings are 12-27-3 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points in games played since 1989; 59-14-1 ATS for 81% winning bets as a home favorite and scoring 28 or more points; 23-7 ATS as a home favorite hosting a divisional foe and scoring 28 or more points.

Vikings are 26-4 ATS for 87% winning bets as a home favorite versus a divisional foe and scoring 28 or mor epoints and averaging at least 8.6 yards-per-pass-attempt.

Detroit vs Denver
7-Star bet on the Denver Broncos

Here is a Terrific Betting System
This situational betting system has earned a solid 54-26 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet on favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points that are facing an excellent opponent that has an offense that is averaging 5.5 or more yards-per-game and after game in which they were outgained by more than 100 total yards.

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM EST, December 22, 2019
7-Star Titan Bet on the Ravens
 
 Here are some key points:
Ravens are 6-0 ATS in road games when facing weak passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the second half of each of the last two seasons; 8-1 ATS in road games facing weak defensive teams allowing a minimum of 5.65 yards-per-play over the last three seasons; 8-1 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two out of their last three games over the last three seasons.

Browns are a money-burning 6-17 ATS in home games when facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season in each season since 1995.

From the predictive Machine Learning:
Browns are just 12-25-1 ATS as a home dog when they allow a minimum of 7.7 yards-per-pass-attempt since 1992; 8-30 ATS when allowing 7.7 yards-per-pass-attempt and having at least two more turnovers than the opponent.

Cincinnati vs Miami
1:00 PM EST
7-Star Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals

This is a simple to track betting query that has earned a solid 34-22 ATS record over the last 20 seasons for 61% winning bets. Play on road favorites after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season.

A Few Predictive Tip Ins

·       Dolphins are 14-35-5 ATS in home games when they rush for 75 to 100 yards since 1997.

·       Dolphins are 15-35-1 ATS when they have allowed a visitor to gain between 100 and 125 rushing yards since 1997.

Colts vs Saints
8:20 PM EST, December 16, 2019
7-Star Titan Bet on the Colts
 
 Due to available time during the holidays these reports are shorter than normal. It does not in any way diminish the strength of the play identified. If you are one of the many new clients welcome on board. To refresh, a 7-Star graded play is recommended to be your normal bet size. A 5-Star is recommended to be 30% less than your 7-Star amount, and 10-Star is 30% more than your 7-Star normal bet size. The key is discipline and having a longer-term view knowing that the profits will come and it is a grind over the course of that season or calendar year.  We did not do well yesterday in the NFL, but remember that as documented by Sports Capping ( not me), Dime Players are up over $45,000 for the 2019 calendar year. Any questions send me a direct message to me @JohnRyanSports1

This situational betting system has earned an outstanding 24-6 against the spread (ATS) record good for 80% winning bets over the last 35 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs or pick (The Colts in this matchup) off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.  

The Colts are 17-3 ATS when coming off a win and facing an opponent that averages 6.375 or more rushing first downs-per-game and scoring an average of 27 or fewer points-per-game. When the Colts have been a dog they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in this role.

The 7-Star Best Bet is on the Colts

 Let us start with a situational betting system that has earned a 30-8 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last 35 seasons. Bet on road teams after they have gone under the total by 21 or more points in total over their last three games and are facing an opponent that has gone under the total by a combined 49 points in their last five games.

This betting system is 6-0 ATS over the last three seasons.

Intended air yards is a great measure of offensive performance. It measures all of the passing yards, the distance the ball travel from the line of scrimmage – not the QB hand – and for both incompleted and completed passes.

The Buffalo offense is one of the most balanced offensive attacks. They rank 14th with 3,800 yards of intended air passing yards. They have thrown a total of 422 passes and this translate into a quite impressive 9.0 yards of intended air yards per pass attempt that ranks fourth-best in the NFL. This also reflects the Bills abilities to stretch a defense using vertical crossing routes and with success.

The Steelers strength has been their defense this season where they rank third allowing 1,161 yards after the catch has been made. They average an allowed 8.3 yards of depth per pass attempt. This simply means that the average yards the ball flies through the air beyond the line of scrimmage has been 8.3 yards per-pass-attempt. So, I believe with the help of my 3,500 algorithms and machine learning tools that Buffalo will be able to dominate this game.

So, bet a 7-Star amount on the Buffalo Bills.

Minnesota vs LA Chargers
4:05 PM EST, December 15, 2019
7-Star Titan Bet on the LA Chargers
 
 Due to time and holiday activities these reports are shorter than normal.

This situational betting system has earned an outstanding 18-4 against the spread (ATS) record good for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on teams that have forced one or zero turnovers in four consecutive games and are facing a team that had zero turnovers in their last game and in a game that has a line between +3.5 and -3.5 points.

The straight-up record of this system is 19-5.

The Vikings are just 5-18 ATS in road games off a home ATS loss or push where the team won as a favorite.

From the machine learning projections:
Vikings are 23-40 ATS in road games when they allow 350 to 400 total yards.
The Chargers are 70-41 ATS when their defense forces two turnovers and 149-63 ATS when they have forced two or more turnovers since the 1992 season.
The Chargers are when they gain 6 or more total yards per play.
The Chargers are 7-1 ATS covering the number by an average of 13.3 points-per-game when they have gained an average eof 6.0 yards-per-carry and have forced two or more turnovers as a home dog.

Due to time allotments, these reports are shorter than normal.

The 200th meeting between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers on Sunday at Lambeau Field will feature plenty of playoff implications. The Bears have won three straight and four of five to remain in the mix for a wild card spot, while the Packers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot but have plenty of work left to lock down the NFC North and, perhaps, a first-round bye. But, Obviously I strongly believe that the Bears are going to pull off the upset win.

The Packers have been out-gained by many of their opponents and they find ways to win games. They just are not as good as that record indicates and the Bears have the talent that matches up well against he Packers. Chicago's turnaround can be tied directly to the improved play of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who has completed 70 percent of his passes with seven passing touchdowns and two rushing scores during the three-game winning streak.

Here is a betting system that has earned a solid 45-17 ATS record good for 73% ATS winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to BET ON road teams (CHICAGO in this matchup) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and with the game being played in the month of December.

Here is a second betting system that has earned a 33-11 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY in this matchup) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season.

The machine learning summary projection calls for the Packers to not score more than 20 points. The Packers are 46-139-7 ATS for 25% wins when they have scored 20 or fewer points; 1-16-1 in home games since 2010.

Some quick Hitters:
 Harbaugh is just 5-15 ATS in home gam,es after allowing 17 or fewer points points in B2B games as the HC of the Ravens.

A stat I have studied fo years is intended air yards, which is exactly what it sounds like. The total yards of all passes thrown that have been competed or not completed. The Eagles rank 13th most in the NFL with 3,863 yards. By comparison, The Bucs lead the NFL with 5,170 intended air yards on the season and 49ers – go figure – rank last with only 2,609 IAY.

What matters more is the average depth of these intended air yards. The Eagles are above average hear again averaging 8 IAY-per-attempt. The problem is that Wentz has completed 1,738 IAY – the yards the ball traveled past the line of scrimmage before being caught and does not include yards-AFTER-THE-CATCH. This illustrates how monumental the loss of WR Jackson has been to the offense as they have no one that can stretch the defense in vertical routes. So, you can throw downfield all day long, but if there is no a playmaker that can get seperation from the defender and make the catch, the rest of the offensive scheme will suffer.

The receivers and Wentz share equally in their demise. WR are rounded routes instead of squaring them off with sharp change of direction moves. Wentz is making horrible reads and has been largely inaccurate with his passes even when the receiver is open.

·        The Giants are 8-1 ATS in road games when they have allowed 22 to 28 points in games played over the last three seasons.

·        The Giants are 8-1 ATS in road games in which both teams score 20 or more points.

·        The Giants are 56-14 ATS for 80% when they have forced a host into three or more turnovers.

7-Star NFL Late Afternoon TItan
4:25 PM EST, December 8, 2019

This situational betting system has earned a 375-264 record good for 59% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. The requirements are to bet against road teams after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a team winning 60to 75% or more of their games on the season.

KC is a money-burning 0-6 ATS when facing teams who commit one or less turnovers-per-game on the season over the last two seasons.

Patriots are 15-4 ATS facing struggling defensive teams allowing 350 or more yards-per-game over the last three seasons.

Patriots are 9-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last three seasons.

·        The Dolphins are just 23-44 ATS when playing against a struggling team sporting a win percentage between 25% to 40%.

·        The Dolphins are 10-27 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards-per-game in their last three games.

·        The Dolphins are 41-112 ATS when they rush for less than 75 yards.

Some quick Hitters:
Colts are a money-burning 13-28 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team winning between 40% to 49% of their games.

7-Star Best Bet on the Buffalo Bills
NFL: Ravens vs Bills
1:00 PM EST, December 8, 2019

This is a trap game for ther Ravens and a classic ‘wise-guy’ bet against situation.

Play against road teams that are on an eight-game win streak in the month of December. This simple query has earned an incredible 23-4 ATS record for 85% winning bets since 1980 and is 8-0 ATS over the last five seasons.
 

Minnesota vs Seattle
7-Star Best Bet on the Minnesota Vikings
8:15 PM EST, December 2, 2019

 This situational betting system has earned an outstanding 48-27 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons and 28-14 ATS for 67% winning bets over the last three seasons. The requirements are to play on road teams in the month of December that have lost three or four of their last games to the spread.

If we slice the dataset to include having lost three games exact of the last four games to the spread then the record is 24-10 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons.

If the ‘dps’ for the team was positive then the query goes to 15-8 ATS and the UNDER has earned a 17-5-1 record good for 77% winning bets. DPS parameter is how the team did scoring as compared to the the implied Vegas lines. For example, in this game Minnesota is a 3-poit underdog with a posted total of 50 points. So, this implies that the final score will be Seattle 26.5 and Minnesota 23.5. If Minnesota scores 31 points, the dps is 7.5 points. If they would score 20 points, then the dps is -3.5 points.

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans
10-Star Bet on the Patriots
8:20 PM EST

This situational query has earned an outstanding 62-26 ATS record for 70 % winning bets over the last five seasons. Play on road teams that are above average passing teams averaging 230 or more passing yards-per-game, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards-per-attempt in last game.

A few more Extra Points:
Patriots are 9-1 ATS when facing poor passing defenses allowing 235 or more passing yards-per-game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Texans are an imperfect 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Belichick is Belichick is 65-28 ATS (+34.2 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games.

These precedents all match the Machine learning projections.
Patriots are 11-1 ATS when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons.
Patriots are 8-1 ATS when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.

The Packers have not been playing well over the last several weeks and have been outgained by the last three opponents they have played. Not a good sign for Aaron Rogers, who is also coming off the worst game of his career, in which he gained just 104 passing yards versus the 49ers stout defense.

This situational query has earned a solid 67-30 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to play against favorites after they were trailing by 14 or more points at half-time in their previous game.

From the machine learning summary projections, we learn that the Giants are a perfect 17-0 SU and 14-0 ATS as a dog when they have scored 24 to 28 points, gained more than 125 rushing yards and the opponent did not exceed 100 rushing yards.

Philadelphia vs Miami
7-Star bet on the Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM EST, December 1, 2019

Here is a situational betting system that has earned a 93-52 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on struggling teams that are being outscored by 12 or more points-per-game and are coming off a game in which they allowed 40 or more points.

Here is another situational betting system that has earned a 51-22 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be against favorites that are coming off a game where they had a -3 turnover margin.

If we combine the two, the Dolphins find themselves in a very nice 13-4 ATS spot hitting 77% winning bets.

San Francisco vs Baltimore
7-Star Best Bet on the 49ers
1:00 PM EST, December 1, 2019

 This is the battle of the two best teams in the league and is a game the 49ers can win with their defense. They may be the only team that has a defense strong enough to contain the LJ greatest show on turf.

It is hard to mentally bet against the Ravens as they are doing things that no team in the last 20 seasons has achieved. They have won their last three games by 17 points versus the spread and the last team to do that was the 2001 Rams, who were the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’. Still, the value here is on the 49ers.

This situational betting system has earned an outstanding 27-7 ATS record good for 79.4% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are excellent offensive teams scoring 27 or more points-per-game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games.

Chicago vs Detroit

7-Star on the Detroit Lions
12:30 PM EST, November 28, 2019

Let us start with a situational betting system that underscores the Machine Learning projections. This betting system has earned a remarkable 32-8 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets since 2000.  Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (in this game Chicago) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games and is a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 40% to 49% playing a bad team wining between 25 and 40% of their games. 

These precedents match the projections form the summary Machine learning tools. 

Detroit is a solid 31-15 ATS when they have allowed 5. 50 5.5 yards-per-play in a game.
Detroit is 33-15 ATS when they have gained 350 to 400 total offensive yards in a game. 

Detroit is 15-5 ATS when getting 7 or more first downs than the opponent and gaining a minimum of 125 rushing yards. 

This situational query has earned a solid 25-7 ATS record for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on underdogs or pick (in this case the Rams) after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games and facing a non-conference opponent. The total has earned a steady 22-12-1 record good for 65% winning bets.

For the 6-point teaser, the Rams will become a 9.5-point underdog and the total will be lowered to 41 from the current 47-point level. For those new to teaser and parlay betting, a teaser has two bets and both must win for the bet to cash. So, we need the Rams to NOT lose by more than nine points and for both teams to combine for 42 or more points.

The table below shows the payouts for 2 through 10-team teaser bets using the +6,. +6.5, and +7-point teaser bets. Many sports books offer 10-point teaser lines. Remember, you are receiving points, which increases your chances of winning. In turn, you will take on risk elsewhere in getting a reduced payout.

From the machine learning summary projections we learn that the Ravens are just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after a win by 21 or more points. Look for Goff to get going tonight – finally – as the Rams are projected to average 7 or more yards-per-pass attempt. The Rams are 26-12-3 for 68% since 2010 when they have gained 7.5 YPPA.

This situational query has earned a solid 41-15 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on favorites that have won three of their last four games and are facing an opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games. Simple and straight-forward betting system.

From the machine learning summary projections we learn that Green Bay is just 5-23 ATS when they have been outgained by 150 or more total yards. 49ers are 52-11 ATS when they have outgained an opponent by 150 or more total yards.

7-Star Pittsburgh Steelers over the Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM EST, November 24, 2019

 Let us start with a situational betting system that underscores the Machine Learning projections. This betting system has earned a remarkable 29-9 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets since 1980. The requirements are to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after the eighth game of the regular season that are averaging between 4.9 to 5.4 YPP and is facing a terrible defense that has allowed a minimum of 5.8 YPP.

Extra Points:
Steelers are 12-5 ATS when allowing an opponent to rush for 3.5 to 4.0 yards-per-carry.
Steelers are 16-5 ATS when scoring between 24 and 28 points.
Bengals are 0-6 ATS in home games when allowing 24 to 28 points.

Chicago Bears vs the NY Giants
1:00 PM EST, November 24, 2019
7-Star Bet is on the Bears

The Chicago Bears were the trendy pic to win the NFC prior to the start of this season. I was included in that selection and admit that I was wrong on that futures pick, but I do not think I was wrong on how good this team is on paper. I completely agree that no one has made money on a bet based on a team’s paper worth. I do believe they are beginning to find their footings and will finish the second half of the season much better than they did the first half of the season.

Despite the Bears 4-6 record they do rank 14th in my power rankings while the G-Men rank 29th. Based on these rankings the Bears would be favored by 10 points and as a result provides betting value on the Bears given the current NFL odds showing the Bears to be a 6-point home favorite.

The Bears defense has played well this season and rank 4th in scoring defense allowing only 17.4 points-per-game. The Giants offense ranks 22nd scoring 20.3 points-per-game on the season. The Giants are not running the ball well enough and they will struggle even more against a Bears run defense that ranks 4th allowing just 3.6 yards-per-attempt.

The Bears average defense has been fantastic and not given the media credit they deserve. The unit does not have to bring the blitz to get quarterback pressure. This is the dominant reason they rank 7th allowing 6.3 yards-per-pass-attempt. This will a nightmare for the Giants sputtering offense that ranks 26th averaging just 5.9 passing yards-per-attempt.

The Giants rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points-per-game. Enough said. Trubiski is worth to be considered your starting quarterback in daily fantasy contests this week.

The absence of a strong Giant running attack, the play action passes have not worked for the Giants. Daniel Jones ranks 24th gaining 431 passing yards on play action pass routes. To illustrate how poor this really is consider the NFL-leader Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, who has passed for 938 yards using playing action and second-best Dak Prescott, who has passed for 886 yards out of play action.

This situational betting system has earned a solid 65-39-3 ATS record for 63% winners over the last 10 seasons. Bet on losing record favorites that have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games after Week 4.

The G-Men are a horrifying 0-7 ATS after playing three consecutive games in which 50 or more points were scored in each game.

This situational query has earned a solid 41-13 ATS record for 76% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on home favorites that are revenging a close loss by seven or fewer points and are coming off a road loss.

The Texans were hammered at Baltimore this past Sunday and with a 6-4 record there will be a sense of urgency to defend their home turf tonight. The Texans run the ball well and the Colts do not do well against good running teams. Colts are just 6-18 ATS in road games facing a host that is averaging at least 130 rushing yards-per-game after Week 8.

This situational query has earned a solid 27-17-3 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on a team that is facing a quick starting opponent that is score more than 14 PPG in the first half and is coming off a loss of 7 or fewer points. Simple, straight-forward and easy to understand.

The location is Estadio Azteca – Mexico City and this is actually good for the Chargers, who have had home games in which 80% of the fans in attendance were fans of the opposition. So, even if it split 50-50 the Chargers are accustomed to this type of ‘strange’ environment.  

Here are a few team specific situations supporting the Chargers and working against the Chiefs.

Chargers Are 38-19 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record on the season and the game taking place in the second half of the season.

Chargers are 32-12 ATS in road games (neutral sites)  when facing a solid passing team that is completing at least 61% of their pass attempts on the season with the game taking place in the second half of the season.

Chargers are 26-11 ATS in road games facing good offensive teams averaging 350 or more total yards per game in games played in the second half of the season.

Chargers head Coach Lynn is a perfect 8-0 ATs in road games and is coming off game where the team failed to cover the spread.

This situational query has earned an outstanding 24-4 ATS record for 84% winning bets over the last 5 seasons. The requirements are bet Home favorites (LA RAMS) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45 and 55% in the second half of the season.

The NFL odds on this game is providing some solid insight from the betting flows data. The line opened with the Rams as a 7-point home favorite and now has moved to 6.5-points at many of the sportsbooks. I expect this line to move to 6-points over the next 48 hours given the higher than usual betting activity on the underdog Bears by the public bettors.

Currently, 63% of the number of betting tickets placed and 63% of the total money taken are on the Bills. The total money bet on the game is broken down to $203,740 on the Bears and $120,900 is on the Rams, which translates to average bet size of $61.00 on the Bears and $62.00 on the Rams. So, ther betting activity is twice as many tickets being bet on the Bears than the Rams and with each bet size being equal for interest on either team.

So, the betting consensus on the game is nearing the ‘red Alert’ level of 70% for bets on the Bears. I do expect the 70% level to be eclipsed and when it does it is a signal to bet on the Rams. Betting against the public consensus when it reaches an irrational exuberance stage and betting with the Book side is never a poor decision.

There are many reasons that the Rams are getting discounted in the market. The last time Rans played the Bears, it was at Soldier Field, and the result was one of the worst games of Goff’s young career. Many observers point to this game as the one where the defensive coordinators had caught up to the offensive genius of Sean McVay. I like to think of it has a pullback of an outstanding stock that had been in a bull trend for a prolonged period. Call it profit taking on the Rams, but now is the time to be a buyer of the Rams.

Rams wide receiver Brandon Cooks remains sidelined as well and with him out of this game allows the Bears defense to double team Cooper Kupp.

In the last meeting between the teams, the Bears used a six-man defensive front with a single rover linebacker that mirrored Rams running back Todd Gurley. This defensive scheme plugged the gaps that the Rams offense would look to open on running plays that created canyons for Gurley to run through.

The Rams will use quick short passes to the slot, which will be open field in the 6-1 defensive scheme. They will also use far more 5-wide receiver sets that will have Robert Woods in man coverage. Mike Thomas will see a lot more playing time given that Brooks is out. He has elite quickness and can gai exceptional separation from a defender in man situations. He has lined up on the left-side of the formation in 74%^ of his plays in the NFL and many times is put in motion ending up in the slot where a linebacker or safety is forced to defend him. That will be a great mismatch for the Rams to exploit.

This situational query has earned a solid 59-28 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 18-10-1 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on a road favorite in the month of November that is off a road loss.

The Buffalo Bills are not a good offensive team, but their defense is good and has kept them in games long enough to allow the offense to score a few points necessary to get the win. My proprietary ranks that adjust for opponents and their schedules shows that Buffalo ranks 24th in total offense, and 13th in total defense. The Fish rank 31st in both total offense and defense.

The veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick has brought a sense of calm to the fish having won their last two games, but the fish are no where close to being out of the woods.

Miami is just 40-111 ATS when they have rushed for fewer than 75 yards.

Buffalo is 35-7 ATS when they have outgained an opponent by 150 or more total yards.

7-Star on Jacksonville as they take on Indianapolis
1:00 PM EST, Sunday, November 17, 2019

Let us start with a situational betting system that has earned a 29-8 ATS record for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on an underdog including pick-em that is coming off a 21 or greater point loss and is now facing an opponent that scored three or fewer points in the first half of their last game. This system is 9-3 ATS over the last three seasons.

Here is a second system that is working against the Colts and has earned a 67-28 SATS record for 70% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against any team that is lied between a 3-point underdog and a 3-point favorite in a conference matchup after going over the total by a combined mount of 35 or more points in their last five games.

Colts are 9-21 ATS in home games coming off a loss of six or fewer points.

I expect Jacksonville to score between 22 and 28 points. The Jaguars are 66-24 ATS for 73% winning bets when they have scored between 22 and 28 points and 18-7-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.
  

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM EST, November 17, 2019
7-Star Bet is on the Falcons

This situational betting system has earned a 70-30 record good for 70% winning NFL bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are play on any team (ATLANTA) after five consecutive games where they forced no more than one turnover against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

Atlanta is projected to gain 6.5 or more yards-per-play and score between 25 and 31 points. In past games in which they met or exceeded these projections the Falcons have earned a solid 76-36 ATS record for 68% winning bets. Panthers are just 27-53-1 when allowing these performance measures.

Here is a situational betting system that has earned a 31-5 for 86% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play on teams that have a favorable turnover margin of at least 0.75 (negative values meaning they are forcing more TO than they are committing) and are facing a team that has unfavorable turnover margin of 0.75 and worse and the team has had three consecutive games with a favorable turnover margin of at least 1 in each of the three games.

Every season there is one or two teams that have been perennial losers and are hyped to unrealistic expectations that end up falling on their faces. It is not the players fault. It is the media and the herd mentality of their fan base. I have done extensive studies about human behavior in many different industries including life sciences and clinical trial projections to what this is all about – sports betting and predictions.

Browns are 5-17 ATS in home games when facing an opponent after Week 8 that is an elite passing team completing 64% or more of their pass attempts.

Browns are a college-fund draining 25-55 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games.

Tomlin is a solid 33-20 ATS as an underdog.

Tomlin is 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets as a dog and facing a divisional opponent.

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
1:00 PM EST, November 11, 2019
7-Star Bet is on the 49ers

The 49ers are the one undefeated team in the NFL and I expect they will be still undefeated after tonight’s MNF showcase. Three of the four divisions in the NMFC have leaders with at least seven wins, so the 49ers need to defend their home turf and maintain the gap between them and the rest.

Just two losses by the 49ers could put their playoff lives on the line. Just check the standings and you will see this to be true. 49ers are 8-0 because they earned it. They are second in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 12.8 PPG and third in the NFL in scoring offense averaging 29.4 PPG.

Seattle is a solid 7-2 team, but they lack the tenacious defense of the 49ers. Seattle ranks seventh in scoring offense averaging 26.7 PPG and rnak 23rd in scoring defense allowing 25.6 PPG.

The ability of the 49ers under Garoppolo to convert third downs (2nd in the NFL at 49%) and move the chains has worn down opposing defenses and it will wear down the Seahawks defense too. Seattle ranks 17th converting 40% of their third downs despite having Russell Wilson, who is having an MVP-like season.

49ers are the MNF bettor’s dream, over the years sporting a 39-13 ATS  and 38-15 SU record since 1989. They rank first in both SU and ATS wins. The Eagles are a surprising second having earned a 32-20 ATS record and 30-22 SU record, which ranks third.

Machine learning projections call for the 49ers to gain at least 150 rushing yards and will gain at least 6.5 yards-per-play. In past games in which the 49ers achieved these performance measures, they earned an outstanding 11-5 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets. Seattle is just 6-17 ATS for 26% when they have allowed an opponent these levels of excellence in past games.

This situational query has earned an outstanding 35-12-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play against favorites of 3 to 9 points after two consecutive games where the team covered the spread as a favorite and is now facing an opponent off a straight-up win.

Steelers are 32-13 ATS in home games when they gain between 300 and 350 total offensive yards.  

1:00 PM EST, November 10, 2019
7-Star play on the Detroit Lions over the Chicago Bears

The blame seems to fall on the Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, but the passing defense has been torched early in games and then forces the offensive game plan to completely change.

The Bears scoring offense ranks 27th averaging 17.8 points-per-game (PPG) and their passing defense ranks 14th allowing 230 passing yards-per-game on the season.

This situational betting system has earned an outstanding 33-9 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

The requirements are to play on road teams that are excellent passing teams averaging 265 passing yards-per-game on the season and are facing a struggling passing defense allowing between 225 and 265 passing yards-per-game on the season and after two consecutive games allowing 7.0 or more passing yards-per-game.

New York Jets over the NY Giants
1:00 PM EST, November 10, 2019
7-Star Bet is on the NY Jets

This situational betting system supports a bet on the Jets and has earned a 59-29-2 ATS record over the last 30 seasons. The system requirements are to bet on any team after five consecutive games in which they forced no more than one turnover in each of them and facing an opponent that had three or more turnovers in their last game.

This betting system has posted a 12-4 ATS record good for 75% winners since the start of the 2017 season.

Giants are just 16-31 ATS following a game in which they were outgained by 150 or more yards

Conventional wisdom suggests that the Cowboys looked like an NFC contender in their dominating win over the divisional foe Eagles in the their last game. That win was needed to end a three-game losing streak and then the BYE week hit them. There can be good and bad with a BYE week. The good is the return to health of key personnel and the bad is that it abruptly ended the positive momentum they had off the Eagle win.

The Giants will have their own list of key personnel starting tonight and coming off the MASH unit list and I believe they will have enough play makers to stay in step with the Cowboys offense tonight.

The only item I do not like is that the line opened at 9 points and quickly moved to 7 and now some 6’s are appearing. This is betting flow where the smart money and the public money are on the same side. There is public money on the Cowboys. The average bet size right now is $45 on the Cowboys and $62 on the Giants, but 62% of the number of bets are on the Cowboys. By itself this is constructive for the Giants to cover and pull off a season-changing win.

This situational query is simple and has been a solid money-maker posting a 27-12 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to bet on all underdogs between 6 and 11 points that have been struggling teams winning less than 25% of their games on the season and facing a foe with a winning record, and the team has lost two of their last three games to the spread.

Now, if our brave revengeful dog is coming into this matchup having lost the last two matchups ot a division foe the record improves to 18-5 for 78% winning bets since 2000. The Giants have lost the five games facing the Cowboys.

The machine learning tools project that the Giants will score between 23 and 31 points. In past home games where the Giants did score between 23 and 31 points they have earned a solid 49-30-1 ATS mark for 62% winners when scoring 23 to 31 points including a perfect 3-0 ATS as a 6-point or more home dog.

The Cowboys are 0-11 ATS as a road favorite of 6 or more points and allowing the opponent to score between 23 And 31 points.

Denver Broncos over Cleveland Browns
4:25 PM EST, November 3, 2019
10-Star Bet is on Denver

This betting system has earned an outstanding 74-38 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team (Broncos in this case) coming off a game in which they committed just one or no turnovers and are facing an opponent that is coming off a -3 turnover margin game.

When I say the world is all over Cleveland it is an understatement on the grandest of scales. Of the books I track, a total of nearly $14,000,000 ($14MM) has been bet on the Browns and is the highest amount of any team in Week 9 action. What makes this even more alarming is that just $1,019,300 has been bet on Denver, which represents only 31% of the betting money flows. This is the widest gap I have seen in multiple years. Now, the public generally loses over time and please do NOT take this contrarian metric like is a LOCK and could never lose- cause it can lose. What I can tell you is that there is a 75% probability that this play wins for you and it also means there is a 25% chance this play can lose for you. The key discipline is to bet the same amounts each week and let the profits grind themselves out over the course of a season. I cannot emphasize this enough.

The machine learning summary projects that Denver will score 27 or more points, will gain between 350 and 400 yards and will have a fewer or equal number of turnovers than Cleveland. In past games in which Denver has had met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned an outstanding 33-6-1 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets including an 18-3 ATS 86% mark in home games.