35* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that the Bucs will win this game. I am starting to see the emergence of a money line above +150 and this represents an excellent level to construct a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2010. Play against road teams (CAROLINA) off a win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season. Bucs know with a win today they can put themselves right back in the chase having JAX and then Washington next on the schedule. The Bucs WR will have to be a presence today. I do believe Vincent Jackson, Louis Murphy, Mike Evans, and Russell Shepard will have solid games today. Carolina's defense overall is strong, but their corners are not all that impressive. Josh Norman is by far their best, so the favorable matchup is Murphy in man coverage against Tillman. I cannot state with any degree of confidence that one of these corners will shadow Jackson or not, but whatever the decision, there will be opportunities for Winston to extend the defense with vertical routes. This is key as it will then open up a running game that has so far struggled. Their LT has not played well, however he will be getting more help from TE's Stocker and Seferian-Jenkins. Bucs TE have just 7 catches to a TE and all to Jenkins. The game plan today must have more targets to both of these TE players. Theses plays are long hand offs and can serve to augment both the ground attack and the play action vertical routes. In sum, I see Winston having his best game yet as a rookie. Take the Bucs. 

35* graded play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game - yes, that also factors in the loss of Roethlisberger and then being replaced by a 35-year Michael Vick. The focus by the media has been how devastating a loss he is for the offense, but there has been little mentioned about how horrible the Ravens offense has been through three weeks. They rank 30th in my overall team offensive grading. Their pass blocking has been by far the worst (lowest grade) of all NFL teams and Pittsburgh loves to dial up zone blitzes. Steelers pass coverage has been well below average, but is due to the many injuries at those positions and also when the blitz has failed - which is not too many times. CB Ross Cockrell has played on just a third of all snaps, but has done very well when in the game. I do expect him to see more snaps tonight and the secondary will be required to defend the Ravens receivers for much shorter bursts of time. Although Vick is 35, he is still an elite athlete with gifted legs. This is a major difference between he and Big Ben. Vick will be able to put immense pressure on the secondary simply by extending plays. His mobility will minimize the amounts of Raven blitz's tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark good for 79% winners since 2005.  Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) with a poor first half defense scoring14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ravens have been  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play;  8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards; Steelers are a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons. Take the Steelers.

35* graded play on the  Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Green Bay Packers in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM shows definitively that KC will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. It is well documented that if you get the winner of the MNF matchup, you will also get the cover ASTS in the majority of games. So, given the favorable projections from the SIM showing that KC has a 47% chance of a SU win and the fact that we are getting paid +245 to assume that risk, I like making this a combination wager. One of two wagers serves to maximize the risk/reward profile. First, wager a 25* amount on the line and add a 3* play using the money line for a 28* amount of total risk. Second, to wager am 18* play on the line and then add a 7* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is a solid  10-2 against the money line (+8.1 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+6.3 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 against the money line (+9.8 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. KC has the ground attack led by Charles to control the tempo of the game and gain a significant margin in time of possession. Always a key to going on the road and winning at Lambeau. Despite the scoring barages, there are only 6 teams that have graded positive overall offensive grades. GB ranks 11th and KC 12th, so contrary to media opinions, the Packers are not executing a high level entering this game. GB ranks 23rd in run blocking grade and will struggle against a vastly under rated KC run defense that ranks fifth best. Javing a athletic pass catching TE is a big weapon too for KC. They will execute short passes, which are essentially long hand offs that will spread the linebackers and open up even bigger creases for Charles to dart through in space. Then there is the play action, which no matter the team, is a strong offensive opportunity where Kelce may be the target more often than not. I do believe you will see ample opportunities for KC to strike in the vertical route with Kelce in 'go' routes. Take Kansas City. 

35* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM projects that SF will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the strong possibility of the upset I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. SF looked quite poor on offense last week in their 43-18 loss at Pittsburgh. However, a bit misleading as Kaepernick passed for 298 yards on a strong 33-46 passing. I am impressed with how they are now using TE Vernon Davis in high percentage routes to create short 2nd and third down siltations. The Arizona offense is doing quite well, but it has put pressure on the defense and their pass defense ranks 29th in the NFL. SF is an 'old' team, but they still have plenty of NFL talent. Kaepernick is also a QB with good legs and can extend plays that puts even more pressure on that suspect secondary. When Kaepernick has started, the 49ers, are a solid 16-9 ATS in road tilts and also 11-5 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage of 75% or higher regardless of the week in the season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 19-13 mark good for 59.4% winners and has made a whopping 31 units/unit wagered averaging a +230 DOG play since 1983. Play against home favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I certainly see the 49ers getting at least 125 rushing yards and may be in a=large part attributed to Kaepernick's scrambling ability. 49ers are 11-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 3 seasons;  9-0 against the money line (+10.2 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the 49ers.

In addition take the New Orleans Saints for a bonus 25* play.  

35* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they host the Indianapolis Colts in AFC Divisional action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Tennessee will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Colts are a desperate need of a win and the public sentiment agreeing with that notion is more than reflected in this inflated line. Most think there is no way the Colts can start 0-3, but that is opinion not based on the facts of their first two games. They stumbled out of the gate last season too, but the results are vastly worse this season. Luck, under siege by an aggressive Jets defense throughout the night, has thrown five interceptions and completed just 54.7 percent of his passes in the two losses. His 58.9 passer rating is last in the NFL.  Based on my gradings, Luck is 28th among 33 QB through two weeks of action. If he was under constant pressure, I could make a claim that he will have a huge day today or at least perform significantly better over the next severals weeks. Problem is he has been hit just ONCE while attempting a pass play. He also ranks 30th in yards per attempt and until he and the offense can stretch the field using the vertical routes, there will be minimal change in execution. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-8 mark good for 83% winners using the money line. Play against a road teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Colts are just 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Take Tennessee.

35* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a NFC East Divisional showdown set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The Philadelphia fan faithful are legendary for the tail gating and will be more than ready for this rivalry. Why this fan base despises the Cowboys is somewhat of a mystery to me since it is not reciprocated in Dallas. The Eagles will be a playoff contender this season. Yet, I strongly believe they need to execute this offense at NFl game speed for a few more weeks to work out the 'kinks'. Execution is paramount in this system and there are tons of reads after the snap that simply need reps. This is Week 2 and although the Eagles performed better int he second half of Monday's loss to the Falcons, they are still a work in progress. As expected, the Eagles graded average in the offensive detail with neither pass or run being better than the other.  The Dallas defense did di well and they had an excellent pass rush last week. It is not how many sacks or pressures a defense gets on a QB, but how well they protect the edge and execute detail. Dallas did that well and that is certainly a big advantage for them facing Bradford. SIM shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. Given this projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 17* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-3 ATS mark good for 89% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season that allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is a stout  3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt 

35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road and play the Buffalo Bills. This is the next chapter in the Ryan-Bellichick endless enigma and one that will again prove quite entertaining. The SIM shows a high probability that NE will win this game by at least 6 points. In Week 1 the Patriots offense was getting into gear and ranked fifth best as detailed by our gradings. They were excellent in the pass game and had better than average pass blocking. Run blocking was average, but they do have Blount returning this week. The Bills defense was much worse than otherwise seen in the game. Their pass rush was horrid ranking third worst in Week 1. Certainly a huge advantage for Brady and the ever changing offensive game plan. Each week there emerges a new target in the Patriots offense making ti nearly impossible for any defense to fully prepare - even for a defensive guru like Ryan. Brady will have more than ample time to scan the field and the ground game will be improved from last week. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. Take the Patriots.

25* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the KC Chiefs in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I doubt that we will see the line move to 3 1/2, but we could see the vig increase on the KC -3 line, which in turn boost the money line. I have seen Five Dimes move their money line to +157, so that is a very good line to acquire. I do think the books will follow that lead so if you can get +160 or better, then make the wager a 17* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line. Based on the complete body of research I have scanned over the past several days, I fully expect Denver to have a strong ground attack tonight that will gain at least 130 rushing yards. This in turn will allow Manning to use quick release technique to hit receivers in space. I think upon occasion you will see an extended play action type of route where Manning will fake and then take three plus steps back and scan the field. This could lead to big vertical routes and he is still very good at delivering the ball to second and third options. KC defense will be on it's heels for the majority of this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Denver is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Take the Broncos. 

35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action on Monday Night Football set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. One of the many variables I analyze is betting flows. I use 12 books and I have found that whenever one team is getting better than 70% of the wagers, it supports a play on the other team. There is certainly an irrational exuberance on the Eagles with better than 79% of all wagers on them. The line has moved up, but there are some 'sharps' taking the Falcons side and several of these came in yesterday. This is just one key variable, but it certainly supports the Falcons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-23 mark using the money line good for 74% winners and has made 34 units/unit wagered  since 2010. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles have been just  3-19 ATS (-17.9 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt. This is the critical part of this play. The Eagles defense is the big question mark going up against a high powered offensive attack with a veteran QB. The Eagles offense appears to be in high gear based on preseason games, but they are still are untested in 'real' games. I do think the Eagles will be a playoff contender as the season evolves, but for this road tilt in Week 1, I like the Falcons to defend their house and get the win. Take the Falcons. 

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they host the Miami Dolphins set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by three or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington has been a solid 52-23 ATS (+26.7 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. Miami is just 14-40 ATS (-30.0 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards since 1992. Much media attention centered on Miami QB Tannehill having a breakout season. Yet, he is just 1-4 ATS as a road favorite in his career. I really like Kirk Cousins under center for the Redskins. do see the Redskins being able to run the ball just enough to allow Cousins to use play action to his and his team's advantage. Take the Redskins.  

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM shows a projection that Seattle will win this game by 6 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is a stout 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they allow less than 250 total yards over the last 3 seasons;  17-54 ATS (-42.4 Units) when they gain less than 250 total yards since 1992;  8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. When the stats are this one sided, any NFL team is going to have favorable (unfavorable) ATS results depending on what side of the game they are on. I certainly see the Seattle defense dominating the LOS and keeping the Rams in third-and-long situations. Converting these situations is a very tough one for even the best offensive teams in the NFL when facing the complexity and strength of this defensive unit. Take Seattle. 

25* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Carolina Panthers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM shows a projection calling for JAX to lose this game by 3 or fewer points and also to win the game. I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. This ratio of wagers maximizes the probability that JAX will win the game. Carolina has an elite QB in Newtown, who had a great camp in the aftermath of his 103.5 million contract. However, he is without stud receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who torn his ACL. That leaves Ted Ginn Jr., who has just 83 catches while starting five games for three different teams over the last five seasons, and Corey Brown as the starters. Brown had 21 receptions as an undrafted rookie last season. Panthers will rely a ton more on TE Olsen, but JAX has the defensive personnel to cover him well. So, it is the defense that will give JAX the chance to pull off the home upset win. Further, JAX now has a ton of very good young talent that I strongly believe is going completely unnoticed.Take Jacksonville. 

50* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 7 or more points. I'll discuss the technicals supporting New England first and then move on to the specific fundamentals. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-16 mark using the Money Line and has made 24.2 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on any team using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) after two consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. Here is a second system working against Seattle and has produced a 31-14 mark for 69% winners using the money line and has made 20 units/unit wagered since 2004. Play against all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (SEATTLE) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a solid 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) off 1 or more straight 'overs' this season; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=375 yards/game over the last three seasons;  7-1 against the money line (+6.3 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; 15-5 against the money line (+9.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; Seattle is just  2-7 against the money line (-8.8 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Now, we will take a look at the fundamentals that support New England. Based on the overall offensive efficiency grades, Patriots rank 11th and Seattle 13th. However, the Patriots are fourth in the passing game while Seattle is 13th. Running grades see Patriots 9th and Seattle number 1 in the NFL. Obviously with Seattle utilizing the 'read option' offensive scheme you would expect to see them in this position. What I find very revealing is that the Patriots have graded modestly higher in overall defensive efficiency and this is where the game will be won. Seattle certainly has the better pass rush, but this is minimized by Brady's abilities to hit receivers very quickly in space. What the Patriots lack in pass rush, they more than make up in run and coverage defense grades. One of the reasons, the Patriots pass rush grade is not significantly higher is the simple fact that Vince Wilfork is not a QB chaser. Instead he clogs the middle of the line and pushes lineman up into the pocket, which in turn gives little room, if any, for opposing QB to step up and throw down field. This has been highly effective and augments the elite level of play by two of the best ILB in the NFL in Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins. They rank second and third respectively in overall grades for their position and are playing at their highest level right now. This defensive unit held the Colts to just 7 points. Then you add the secondary strong play led by Revis, McCourty, and Chung and I can easily see Seattle struggling on offense. Defending the 'read option' requires preparation and position discipline both of which are what the Patriots truly excel at and have done so every season. Now, back to the offensive side and TE Gronkowski is by far the best TE in the NFL season. He is a matchup nightmare and Seattle is very vulnerable in play action and in man coverage. I definitely believe the Patriots will spread the field and have formations with Vareen and Gronkowski individually moving pre-snap in order to get the best matchup. Even in stacked formations with two TE, the Patriots will have ample opportunity to complete passes and move the chains. Take New England.

Now for your prop bets: Brady 'over' 260 1/2 passing yards.

Brady 'over 23 1/2 completions

Blount 'over' 62 1/2 rushing yards.

Total number of players making a pass attempt 'over' 2 1/2 (Need both QB's and either a option pass or a back-up QB to make a pass. 

25* graded play on the Green Bay packers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship game set to start at 3:05 PM ET. Last week the Packers essentially escaped with a win over the Dallas Cowboys. Based on my overall gradings, they were the two best offensive units in the NFL. Now, only the Packers, second-best, are left and they have enough fire power to get the job done. When I say they escaped, it has nothing to do with the Dez Bryant 'catch', but rather the poor execution by Green Bay standards overall. Seattle has the best ground attack remaining, but the passing game has been far more important in Conference Championship games in recent years. We saw last week, New England advance with just 14 rushing yards. In fact all four winners in last week's Divisional Round lost the rushing stats. There is a dichotomy with the reasoning that you need defense and a big time ground game to win. However, the truth is that since 1970, when a team out gains the opponent by any margin on a per-pass basis, they have won 74% of the games. Fine tuning this theme, teams that push that margin to more than 2 yards win 90% of the regular season games. That translates to a 505-59 mark. In the post season, teams that post a margin of 2.0 or greater win 92% of the games for an outstanding 22-2 mark since 2010. Three of the top-4 defenses are out of the playoffs with No.1 ranked Denver, No. 2 Baltimore, and No. 4 Detroit all  losing. Third ranked Seattle is the top defense left. Now, the Seattle defense has been inconsistent in stopping the run. This does not mean I am changing my theme. Green Bay will be able to run the play enough for Seattle to respect and then Rogers will have even greater opportunity to connect on vertical routes off play action and in man coverage. On the defensive side, Green Bay has struggled to stop the run. However, they do have the personnel and athleticism to contain Seattle from executing big plays. This means Seattle will post long time consuming drives while Green Bay will have big play striking potential on any down and situation. Rogers is the best overall graded QB in my rankings and by a significant amount over second-best Drew Brees. By comparison, Wilson ranks 13th-best overall and ranks 17th as a passer with a NFL-best run grade. So, I see Rogers dominating this game despite the calf injury and getting the Packers into position to advance to the Super Bowl. The simulator shows a high probability that Green Bay will lose this game by fewer than 4 points. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-20 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2004. Play on underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) that are excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt and after gaining seven or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games. Of the total plays made, 44% of them covered the spread by seven or more points. Last, but not least, McCarthy is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of the Green Bay Packers. 

50* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional Round set to start at 1:00 PM ET. (Your bonus 25* play is on the Denver Broncos). The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than four points and has an outstanding shot at winning the winning the game. Given this favorable projection I suggest making this a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-20 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2004. Play on underdogs or pick (DALLAS) that are excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt and after gaining seven or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games. Nearly 50% of all of the games played based on the criteria of the system have covered the spread by 7 or more points. There are some high-powered coaching trends supporting Dallas. Garrett is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game. Last piece of evidence on the technical side is a money line system that has produced a very strong 32-12 mark for 73% winners and averaged a +118 DOG play since 2004. Further, this money line system has gone 5-2 making 4.8 units this season. Play against home teams using the money line (GREEN BAY) after three consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after three consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. Based on the overall gradings, the Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL and is a big reason they have gone 8-0 in road games this season. Green Bay grades out at second-best offensive team, but are pass heavy while Dallas has a much more balanced and varied attack. The Dallas offensive line is the best in the NFL. They have an excellent LT in Tyron Smith, who grades in the top-5 at his position in the majority of categories. He will minimize any impact that LB Clay Matthews tries to muster up. I see Mathews being completed dominated by Smith. Perhaps the best player of this elite unit is C Travis Frederick, who grades second-best at his position and a league-leading best in run blocking. Green Bay has struggled to stop the run ranking fourth-worst in the NFL. In order to stop a strong running game, the defense must get penetration up field to disrupt the zone/gap blocking schemes and prevent the OL from getting to the second layer of defense. I don't see Green Bay being able to this without using a safety or DB in the box. The real danger for Green Bay is to blitz gaps where Romo can get the ball out quickly to Witten in space. Then there is WR Dez Bryant, who ranks second-best in his position and has more catches and yards then the rest of the WR on his team combined. Take the Dallas Cowboys. 

25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFL Divisional playoff action set to start at 8:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by 8 or fewer points and also has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I suggest making this a combination wager comprised of a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-22 ATS mark for 70% winners since 1983. It has gone 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Nearly half of these plays since 1983 have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (SEATTLE) outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Further, Carolina is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons;  11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons. Rivera is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Carolina has evolved into a very strong team during the second half of the season. The OL will be at full strength with the return of Mike Remmers at RT and withByron Bell at LT. Remmers has had some ups and downs but overall shows vast improvement and stability as he has given up just six hurries and one hit in six games this season and his +3.2 pass blocking grade is encouraging for Carolina. Kelvin Benjamin is a big target with gifted athleticism and I fully expect a huge game from him tonight. Of rookie WR, he ranks second-most with 948 offensive snaps and third in receiving yards with 1,008. He did extremely well against Sherman in Week 8  and this will be the big story should Carolina pull off the upset. His play will be further augmented by the strong running attack led by Jonathon Stewart. Over the last six weeks, he ranks best in the NFL in overall grading with 610 yards and 323 yards after contact. Then on the defensive side, the emergence of safety Tre Boston, who was inserted in the starting lineup in Week 14 has put up some obscene numbers. During this span he has allowed a QB rating of just 13. I also see DT Kawann Short having another huge game in this matchup. During the Panthers winning streak, he recorded 4 sacks in the last 5 games, while getting just 1 sack in the first 12 games. My report would be complete if not mentioning the defensive MVP-type play of Luke Kuechly at LB. It will be loud in Seattle, but Cam Newton has show great leadership and has played in some very big games with significant noise factors in his past. I really like Carolina!

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they host Baltimore in the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs set to start at 4:25 PM ET. Let's take a look at a few of the fundamental matchups I see the Patriots having a dominate edge. Of course, a first look at the relationship between Gronk and Brady is huge and overpowering. Gronk is having by far his best season since the 2011 campaign. With a position-leading 1,124 receiving yards on 124 targets he has become a solid target for Brady in any down-and-situation anywhere on the field. He has also proved elusive with 460 yards after the catch ranking third-best at his position. The Ravens secondary has been inconsistent for most of the season, but the emergence of DB Will Hill has put more cohesiveness to this unit.  Hill is the best Ravens DB and I fully expect him to be assigned to Gronk given his size and speed. However, this matchup will then give Brady plenty of opportunities to hit his other reliable weapons in space in man-coverages. Starting with Edelman, who has caught 75% of his targets with 92 catches, then Lafell, then the stable of RB (Vareen, Blount, Bolden, and Gray), the Patriots just have far too many weapons for any defense to contain effectively over 60 minutes. The Patriots OL is not a dominating one and their weaknesses have been shadowed by Brady's quick release (2.34 second) good for fourth quickest in the NFL. This all but eliminates the Ravens pressure schemes as they cannot fall prey to the bubble screens that the Patriots run to near perfection. The screens are what the Patriots OL do best.  The Ravens like to run the ball with power between the tackles and then to attack the perimeter. However, they are matched against one of the best tackles in Vince Wilfork. His ability to glog the middle of the LOS and to push double team situations up the field also negates Flaccos abilities to step up in the pocket and make throws. Brady and the offense get the accolades in the media, but quite frankly the defensive unit is better and has steadily improved over the course of the season. Their LB corp led by Collins and Hightower are among the best in the NFL and the secondary led by Revis, McCourty, and Chung are playing together at elite levels. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 9 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-22 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2004. Play on home teams (NEW ENGLAND) after scoring nine points or less last game and is now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Of the 74 plays made based on the criteria of the system 39% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. There are several game situations supporting the Patriots noting they are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons;  12-3 ATS in home games after having won five or six out of their last seven games over the last three seasons; 10-2 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last two seasons;  8-1 ATS in home games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons; 6-0 ATS in home games facing solid offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game in games played over the last 2 seasons.   Take the Patriots. 

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Detroit Lion sin NFC Wild Card Playoff action set to start at 4:35 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 10 or more points. I will start with the fact that Suh is starting since he won his appeal. However, the fact is that he is NOT the best defensive tackle in the game. We have him graded as 5th against the run and 6th against the pass. Further, he has struggled in both categories against well balanced offensive attacks. Dallas is certainly that type of attack and can also light the scoreboard up quickly. Detroit has an excellent safety in Glover Quin, who leads all safeties with seven interceptions and the third-highest pass coverage grade. yet, Dallas with Romo have ben able to attack the defensive perimeter consistently and this forces safeties to 'cheat' to one side anticipating the go route or double move. This will be slanted toward the side of the field that Bryant is on. Bryant has led all WR in several categories since Week 10 including deep passing catching % (79% and 367 yards). I also think that the secondary receivers will have some excellent man coverage opportunities to create space where Romo can deliver the ball quickly and in space. Dallas Guard Zack Martin has steadily been playing at an elite level allowing only 10 QB pressures and ZERO sacks for the season. Last, Romo ranks second-best in the NFL in QBR and is best with 8.52 yards-per-attempt. Then there is the power and elusive running of Murray for the Lions to contend. I just can't see them consistently stopping both over the entire four quarters. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-16 ATS mark for 71.4% winners since 1983. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) that are excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better and after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 43-17 ATS for 72% winners since 2004.  Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Detroit is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons;  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. Take the Dallas Cowboys. 

25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. This game is set to start at 8:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Ravens will win this game. Now, before we get to the nuts and bolts of this play, I'd like to address the Bell situation. He was declared 'OUT" for this game and this is a monumental loss for the Steelers. Normally, there is a second or even third string RB that can get the job done. However, Bell accounted for 77% of the team's rushing ayrds. This mark is second only to Murray, who has accounted for 78.4% of Dallas' rushing yards. The drop off is sizable with undrafted free agent Josh Harris expected to fill the position. Ben Tate is on the depth chart and he was signed by the Steelers this past Tuesday. So, i expect the Steelers to use a RB committee and still to continue to run the ball. So, based on talent alone the loss is huge, BUT remember there are 11 players on each unit. No matter the line, the play here on Baltimore is valid. I fully expect the Ravens to have a solid day on offense. They are projected to gain 6.0 or more yards per play. In past games, they are 5-1 ATS this season and 46-19 ATS since 1992 when they have achieved this level of offensive production. I also see them gaining between 7.5 and 8.0 net passing yards. In past games, the Steelers are just 0-2 ATS this season and 1-5 ATS the last three seasons when allowing this range of net passing yards. Now, the Ravens have injuries of their own, but I am confident the OL will be in excellent shape for this matchup. No question, James Hurst is the weakest link on the OL. However, Marshal Yanda is the BEST run blocker at his position in the NFL based on a 34.2 grading and 44 overall grading. In summary, I strongly believe the OL will do a great job in pass and run blocking. On the technical side we see that the Ravens are on a very nice 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Rake Baltimore.

50* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the battle for the AFC North Division with a wide array of playoff implications involved.  I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the Money Line. The simulator shows a high probability that Cincy will win this game. I am going to look first at he technical considerations backing the Bengals. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 138-66 ATS mark for 68% winners using the money line since 2008. Play on any team using the money line (CINCINNATI) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games and is a strong team winning 60 to 75% or more of their games with the current game taking place in the second half of the season. This system has gone a strong 35-15 making 19 units/unit wagered this season. Bengals are on a perfect 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons. Lewis is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game as the coach of he Bengals. Conversely, Tomlin has been a money burning 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' as the coach of the Steelers. Brown is having a craeer year and leads all WR in the majority of statistical categories. However, I belevie that the Bengasl have an elite CB in Adam Jones that can contain him. Further, Bengals have arguably one of the best safeties in the NFL with George Iloka. That duo can provide varied looks to disguise coverage and pressure schemes. Granted, the Bengals secondary has been torched at times this season, but in large part because of a lack of pass rush. However, in recent weeks the unit has graded out some of their best efforts led by Geno Atkins, who has a team-high in QB hurries (32). LB Carlos Dunlap will be the man to watch in blitz schemes as he leads the team with 9 QN sacks and adds 32 QB hurries and 19 QB hits.Look for LB Vincent Rey to platoon with other LB and play mostly on early downs and not at all on true passing downs. He has been weak in pass coverage, but leads the team with 84 tackles and 21 assists. Also of significant note, is that I strongly believe it is NOT necessary for Jones to shadow Brown for the entire game. Din't be surprised if other DB Reggie Nelson gets lined up to cover Brown as he actually has the highest pass coverage grade on the team. Pittsburgh defense is certainly NOT the 'steel curtain' and are very vulnerable to the Bengals ground attack in this matchup. The Steeler defensive front is led by Cameron Heyward, who has a tremendous season, but the rest of the group has been largely inconsistent with their play. Steelers are solid in pass rush situations, but are actually quite weak in run stop and pass coverage plays. Dalton will get rid of the ball quickly in long down-and-distance situations. Yet, with the ground game working at a high level, he will enjoy play action with extra time to target Green, who will be in man coverage. As with many games, the game is won in the trenches and I clearly see the Bengals having the overall edge. 

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Green Bay Packers in a major NFC North showdown set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than 8 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making this a combination wager using the line and money line comprised of a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the Money Line. I know it has been 23 years since Detroit had success in Lambeau, but this is this year and this Lions team is not your father's Lions team of seasons past. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-23 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2008. Play on any team (DETROIT) that is a strong defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and after 8+ games have been played in the regular season.  Here is an incredible system supporting the upset and has gone 41-10 for 81% winners since 2008. Play on any team using the money line (DETROIT) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread and is a strong team winning 60% or more of their games and with the current game taking place in the second half of the season. Rogers is certainly a MVP candidate, but he only criticisms against him is that he has truly struggled against elite defenses, especially those that run 4-3 base with excellent defensive linemen. Rogers struggled against Seattle in Week 1, Detroit Week 3, and posed arguably his worst graded game of his career at Buffalo Week 15. This will be the first game this season where he is at home facing a truly elite defense. The Lions defense is anchored (literally) by DT Ndamukong Suh, who if not for his poor penalties, would be graded as the best DT in the game by a wide margin. Detroit ranks second-best behind only Denver in overall defensive efficiency. Second only behind the Jets in defensive run stop efficiency. So, I do not see any Green Bay ground attack working today and this will force Rogers to win the game with his arm. Of course, he is fully capable of that feat, but not against the defensive front of the Lions who will get pressure on him without the help of constant blitz packages. LB DeAndre Levy will have a huge day. He leads the team with 114 tackles and 75 stops and he will be able to shoot gaps with Suh being double teamed most of the game. Now, on the offensive side of the ball, the Lions have a great opportunity to run the ball early and then use play action to Johnson to stretch the GB defense further over the course of the game. This will also directly give Detroit a significant edge in TOP serving to keep Rogers off the field and to minimize his scoring chances. Take the Detroit Lions.

The Ravens got good news yesterday with three players being selected to the Pro Bowl and earning All-Pro status seasons. Yet, one was extraordinarily special as their first round draft pick C.J. Mosley became the first rookie in Ravens franchise history to earn the All-Pro award. His teammate LB Elvin Dumerville earned his fourth All-Pro award. 

Ravens rank third-best in overall defense efficiency in large part because of the All-Pro play of their linebackers. In addition to Dumerville, the Ravens have two other standout OLB in Suggs and McPhee. Dumerville had a league-high with 19 QB sacks at his position. yet, McPhee led the team with 29 QB hurries and Suggs was second on the team with sacks (13 and hurries (29). Despite the All-Pro award, fellow teammate Daryl Smith is actually the best coverage LB. So, you can easily see how strong and how deep this defensive unit has become this season.

Manziel has been horrid at the NFL level and Hoyer will take over the controls in this game. Cleveland is in disarray to say the least and given the magnitude of the situation, I simply see the Ravens dominating the LOS, forcing turnovers, and creating short filed scoring situations for their offense. 

Ravens QB Flacco had a horrid game last week in Houston, but rarely does he had back-to-back clunkers. He is smart and will not make mistakes that can cost his team field position in this matchup. Take the Ravens. 

I like Washington this week as they host Dallas in an NFC Divisional Matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. This game essentially means nothing to Dallas and their current No. 3 seeding as the NFC Champion - unless Detroit and Green Bay end in a tie. I won't delve into the specifics of what happens in the event of a tie for the NFC North Division crown, but it is certainly very unlikely. Further complicating the issue is that game starts at 4:25 PM ET and this one starts at 1:00 PM ET. So, this play is based on Dallas starters playing all four quarters and not that I expect any Dallas starters to be rested. That will obviously aid our cause. 

You may recall I had Washington and predicted they would win the game over Philadelphia Last week. For much of the same reasons, I certainly see Washington staying with in the number. To exploit the possible upset win, I suggest playing a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the Money Line. This is common in my work over the years and simply maximizes the total rate of return (ROI) of your investment in Washington.

WR DeSean Jackson torched his former team last week and it was more than just his box line. He serves to stretch the defense vertically given his elite speed and excellent deep ball catching skills. CB Fletcher was no match for the speed of Jackson. This was most evident when in man coverage and Fletcher playing nearly 10 yards off the LOS, Jackson went on a go-route and blew by him with ease and creating enormous separation and a 55-yard completion with less than 2:00 minute left in the third quarter. Although Dallas' CB are vastly superior to that of the Eagles, respect must be paid to Jackson and his vertical threat. 

Redskins Kerrigan had one of his best games of the season with an amazing 10 QB pressures on Sanchez. I believe he will be a force again this week. Getting pressure on any QB at the NFL level is a sure way to disrupt the rhythm of any offense. 

 Despite all of the negative media attention on RG III, he does rank third best in the NFL with a 79% accuracy percentage. This measure includes all completed passes and dropped ones as well. Last week, he was largely accurate on short, intermediate, and deep throws. 

Technically speaking, Dallas is just 7-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games since 1992; 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after a win by 28 or more points since 1992. Garrett is a miserable money burning Garrett is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after having won five or six out of their last seven games as the coach of the Cowboys.

Here is a super system that has gone 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 1983.  Play against road favorites (DALLAS) that are above average defensive teams allowing between 18 and 23 PPG) and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG and after allowing nine points or less last game. 45% of the game splayed covered the spread by 7 or more points. Over the past five seasons, this system has gone a sparkling 7-1 ATS. 

Washington catches Dallas in a definite let-down situation after the huge recent wins and NFC East clinching blowout winner over the Colts. I expect RGIII to have another solid game adding even more confusion to the Washington off-season plans. 

50* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in a major AFC showdown set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The stakes are very high for both teams as they look to solidify their best possible playoff position. Looks to be in favor of the Broncos though as the simulator shows a high probability that they will win this game by 8 or more points. Here are some simple game situations that support the Bengals in this matchup. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-25 ATS mark since 1983. Play on favorites (DENVER) off a win against a division rival and playing the next game on Monday night. This system has covered the spread by 7 or more points in 50% of all of the plays made based on the criteria of the system. The following expectations I have for the outcome of this game match the game situations. Bengals are a miserable 1-5 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 6.0 or more yards per play; 11-25 ATS when they have been outgained by 1.0 to 1.5 yards per play since 1992. Denver is 6-2 ATS this season and 13-4 L3 seasons when they have allowed 15 to 21 points; 3-0 ATS this season and 11-3 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 150 to 200 net passing yards; 8-1 ATS when the rush for 4.0 to 4.5 rushing yards in games played over the L3 seasons; 19-7 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained more than 400 offensive yards. Denver possesses the fifth best offensive grade behind leading Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. This is a measure of a teams overall offensive efficiency. In the last four weeks the Broncos have gone to the run game behind a very talented RB in Anderson and it has had a negative impact on manning's Personal stats. Yet, he could care less about that and all about the team getting to the Super Bowl. This has directly led to an improved TOP and the defense has responded in kind. Of the teams mentioned above, the Broncos are the only team with solid positive grades on overall defensive efficiency. So, Manning calls his own plays at the LOS and the emergence of the ground attack has led to the entire Bronco team getting significantly better. In fact, the Denver defense ranks best in overall defensive efficiency led by a vastly under rated run defense. The inability of the Bengals to establish a ground attack tonight will be a dominant reason the Broncos win this game. Take Denver.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Green Bay in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I played against the Packers last week and also correctly called the upset win by Buffalo. The probability of a Bucs upset is far less likely than that presented in the Buffalo game, BUT adding a 3* play using the Money Line is an excellent 'just in case' bet. It is hard to believe that Green Bay is the 6th team and last playoff team 'IN' right now. They and several other teams were given a Christmas gift by the Eagles in their loss (25* winner) to Washington. Yet, they still need to win to ensure they earn a playoff berth today. Detroit is NFC North leader (Wins tie break over Green Bay based on head-to-head win percentage.) and enjoys tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in conference games. Rogers will have a better game than last week's anomaly, but it is the Tampa offense that I believe could have one of their best games of the season. Packers defense ranks 27th allowing 128 rushing yards per game, 16th  allowing 238 passing yards, and just 26th in sack percentage at 6.05%. Look for Mike Evans to continue his stellar rookie season where he  has posted a position-leading 7 TD on deep thrown passes this season. Stretching the Packers defense has been the offensive template needed to defeat them in recent weeks. Take the Bucs.

I like the Washington Redskins plus the points in their NFC East matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles set to start Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. The Eagles loss at home to Dallas was essentially a double loss. They lost the Division lead to the Cowboys and now stand on the outside of the playoffs looking in at them. They do not possess one tie-breaker of the current playoff teams should there be a time at the end of the season. Obviously a loss here would almost seal their unfortunate fate of not being the post season. 

In the first time against Washington, there was a blind side hit on QB Nick Foles that sparked a fourth quarter brawl. The media would lead you to believe that this event is a highly motivating factor for the Eagles to seek revenge and simply blow the Redskins out. The better point here is that the Eagles have played TWO very physical games against Seattle and Dallas and I question how much fuel is left in the tank for this game. Further, being that is the dysfunctional Redskin as the opponent is going to make it very difficult for the coaching staff to get their units fully focused. The Eagles certainly know their fate lies in winning, but getting the job done could be a monumental task in Landover, MD.

The Eagles defense has held up well this season, but they are now showing immense fatigue in the second 30-minutes of recent games. The fact is that the Eagles offense when working scores quickly and their drives to not result in a time-of-possession edge. This has forced the Eagles defense to be on the field far more than the majority of other units in the NFL. The Eagles rank dead last in the NFL with the Eagles defense playing better than 56% of the time. 

Overall, the Eagles rank 8th in my overall defensive rankings. However, that is in large part because of the early season success on special teams. That advantage as been all, but eliminated by opponents, who simply know to prepare for those aggressive plays. Factoring out that special team impact, the Eagles grade out at number 26th in the NFL. 

I also cannot trust the Eagles offense that has not played well in the last two weeks against elite opponents. Granted, Washington's pass defense is one of the worst, but they offset that with a strong pass rush. As we saw the in last two games, getting into Sanchez's face was a critical part in his failure to have time to throw the ball to the correct WR. Washington has their own elite DE in Jason Hatcher, who grades 8th best in his position. He ranks third-best in sacks and QB hurries. He also grades second best in defending the run. 

The Eagles will most assuredly use a TE in starter Ertz or back-up Celek to help block him on pass situations. That added protection will give Sanchez a bit more time, but it eliminates another target for pass routes. This takes pressure of the Washington secondary and will allow them to play more bracket coverage than man coverage. In sum, this scheme will make it more difficult for Sanchez to make throws and move the chains. 

The Eagles offense attacks the perimeter of defenses and spreads them out across the field. This in turn opens up the inside of the field for easy run and catch passes. However, Washington has some of the best OLB in the NFL led by Kerrigan, Murphy, and Orakpo. Kerrigan is second at his position with 38 QB hurries and has added 12 sacks. All three grade positive for the season and are fully able to disrupt the timing of the Eagles WR with solid coverage. 

Former Eagle WR and now No. 1 Washington WR DeSean Jackson is obviously looking to have a big game. Yet, he brings a whole lot more to this matchup that will not show in the box score. His ability to stretch the field opens up more room in the middle of the field and also will enable Alfred Morris to have a strong day between the tackles. He is averaging a strong7.5 yards after the catch. The Eagle have been prone to missed tackles in recent weeks. This is a significant advantage for Washington to get the ball to Jackson in space where he can use his athleticism to make plays down the field. 

Looking at the technical side of this matchup we see that the Eagles have been a money burning  3-12 ATS in road games when facing struggling teams that are outscored by 6+ points per game in games played only in the second half of each season since 1992. Redskins are a very strong 17-4 ATS facing excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games of each season since 1992. Home losses are tough for the majority of the NFL teams to overcome and the Eagles are no different sporting an imperfect 0-6 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last three seasons. 

The following game situations match my projections for this game. Eagles are just 4-14 ATS over the last three seasons when they have allowed 6.0 or more yards per play; 4-11 ATS over the last three seasons when they have allowed 22 to 28 points.

Take the Washington Redskins. 

25* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Tennessee Titans in NFL Thursday Night FB action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. Not sure, who in the NFL scheduling department came up with this matchup as even before the season started the expectations of these two teams was quite limited. Bortles had his second best career start in the first meeting of these two teams. In fact, he has career-best QB rating of 89 and completions with 32. The Tennessee secondary is a complete mess. Jason McCourty has taken a step back, already charged with allowing over 1,000 receiving yards. Blidi Wreh-Wilson hasn’t been any better, but a trip to I.R. means that Coty Sensabaugh will be seeing full-time duty yet again this week. Sensabaugh has held up reasonably well in coverage, though it has to be concerning that he’s missed nine tackles on the season and that over half of the receiving yardage he’s allowed has been after the catch. JAX has struggled to run the ball, but the Tennessee defensive front has made second and third string RB look like All-Pro candidates. Running the ball with Gerhart will set up Bortles in play action to complete passes in man coverage. Further, Bortles will enjoy more opportunity to extend plays with his legs tonight. For the fantasy player looking for that diamond in the rough, Marquis Lee is set for a huge night. Based on the projections the following game situations are validated. In past games over the L3 seasons, Tennessee is 1-5 ATS this season and 2-11 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained between 300 and 350 offensive yards. Whisenhunt is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of the Titans; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) facing poor passing defenses allowing 235 or more passing yards/game; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) facing poor defensive teams allowing >=350 yards/game. Take Jacksonville.

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they host the San Francisco 49ers in NFC West Divisional matchup set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by 13 or more points. The Harbaugh era is all but done in SF and all that remains is the completion of the remaining three games. The locker room is not in good shape to say the least and one can only wonder how negative it has become in recent weeks. Losing to the Raiders last week is a clear case in point that the fight is removed from the 49ers character. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-15 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for this game. San Fran is 0-5 ATS L3 seasons and 8-40 ATS since 1992 when allowing 150+ rushing yards. Seattle is 7-1 ATS when they gain 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play over the last three seasons; 12-4 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points L3 seasons; 13-4 ATS when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards L3 seasons. Collin Kaepernick is 0-6 ATS facing Seattle and 0-3 ATS at Seattle. Russell Wilson is a solid 14-7 ATS as a home favorite and 14-4 ATS in games lined with a total between 34 1/2 to 41 1/2 points L5 seasons. Lynch will have a big day in this matchup. He grades third best back in the NFL in our database and leads the NFL in missed tackled with 68. That's 10 more than second-best Murray of the Cowboys. Wilson leads the NFL in average time to throw at 3.22 seconds per drop back. This is the added weapon that will give Wilson ample tim eot throw in play action throughout this game. The San Fran secondary has been largely inconsistent starting with the LB. The DL depth is extraordinarily weak and Seattle will set up plays based on the personnel and optimize each down and distance. Take Seattle. 

Baltimore won the Super Bowl in 2012 and they are beginning another playoff run similar to that season. It's hard to imagine the ONLY team in the NFL that ranks in the top quarter on both sides of the ball flying under the radar, but that is exactly the case. On offense Ravens rank in the top-10 in scoring offense, points-per-play, yards-per-game, third-down conversion percentage, and rushing yards per game. Flacco is having a career best season in many categories. He has the best supporting cast of any team in his career as well. He has career bests in completion percentage (64%), passing yards per game (251), sack rate (3.5 percent), passer rating (94.5), and total QBR (73.1). 

Last season, the Ravens had arguably the worst ground game in the NFL with a league-worst 3.1 yards per rush. Now under the emergence of Justin Forsett the Ravens rank fifth in the NFL gaining an average of 136 rushing yards per game. Forsett leads all running backs gaining 5.6 per carry and is third in total rushing yards. This solid ground game has allowed the Ravens WR ample opportunities to make plays in man coverage. Torrey Smith has caught seven TD in his last seven games and Steve Smith has 889 receiving yards. 

The real source of the offensive success is found on the interior line led by RG Marshal Yanda and LG Kelechi Osemele. The Center position was a very weak spot on this OL last season. Jeremy has solidified and brought consistent execution to that position this season. He ahs been especially excellent in run block assignments. Further, Yanda grades as the best offensive lineman in the NFL and Osemele ranks second-best in his position. As has always been th ecase, 'ahead' of every great running back is an even better OL.

One of the best linebacker corps in the NFL is the driving force behind the Ravens success that has put them sixth in scoring defense (19.6 PPG), eighth in points-per-play allowed (0.310), fourth in rushing yards allowed (84.5), and 10th in sack percentage (7.1%). At outside linebacker, Elvis Dumervil has a league high with 16 sacks and has been playing at an elite level against the run. However, he may not be even the vest defensive player. That is because Terrell Suggs at age 32 is having a rebirth this season. The other OLB, Pernell McPhee leads the NFL with 17 quarterback hits. 

The inside linebackers are led by former Jacksonville player Daryl Smith. He spent the first nine seasons of his career with Jacksonvillle and Baltimore got a great pickup in the off season. He was on eof the top ILB in the NFL last season, but his play has elevated higher and remains one of the most versatile LB in the NFL. He is fully capable of tight coverage, excellent against the run, and has a quick first step in blitz situations. His ILB teammate is rookie C.J. Mosley, who leads the NFL in total tackles by all LB. 

As expected, the special teams are at the top of the NFL again this year. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh started his brilliant career as a special teams coach and his attention to detail in the unit has paid off huge dividends. Justin Ticker is looking to have back-to-back first team All-Pro seasons. he has made 21 of 21 kicks inside of 50 yards and is 4 of 7 form beyond 50 yards with misses from 55, 57, and 64 yards. 

These two units will be going against a Jacksonville team that ranks near the bottom in the majority of statistic al categories and metrics on both sides of the ball. Jags rank last in the league scoring 15.3 PPG and points per play (0.245) just to mention a few of the categories. On defense they rank 29th in scoring defense (27.4 PPG), 28th in rushing yards (133). On the bright side the Jags rank fourth in the league in sack percentage (8.12%). However, as already detailed, they will be going up against an OL line that is arguably the best in the league. So, for a multitude of reasons, I see this matchup heavily favored in Baltimore's side of the ledger. 

Technically, the following game situations match my projections for the outcome of this game. Jacksonville is 0-15 ATS when allowing 150 or more rushing yards over the past three seasons. Further, they are a money burning 2-11 ATS when they have allowed 6 or more total yards per play in game splayed over the last three seasons. 

Baltimore is a stellar 6-0 ATS this season and 10-2 ATS the last three seasons when gaining more than 125 rushing yards. When gain between 150 and 175 rushing yards, the Ravens are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season and 7-0 ATS the past three seasons. 

Take Baltimore. 

I like taking the Buffalo Bills plus the points when they host the Green Bay Packers starting at 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 14. This may appear to be a bit surprising or even shocking to some of you, but I have made a long career of feasting on live dogs against unsuspecting favorites. Of course, there are solid reasons based on extensive research for these plays so let's take a look at the matchups. 

This is a matchup offensive strength versus defensive strength. Packers rank best in the NFL scoring 32.5 PPG, points per play (0.529), yards per play (6.3), and TD's per game (3.9). Buffalo counters this offensive attack sporting the fourth best scoring defense (18.5 PPG), fifth in opponent yards allowed (312), fourth in points per play allowed (0.291), fourth in opponent yards per play allowed (4.9), and third in TD's allowed (1.9). 

Green Bay's QB Aaron Rogers is having an MVP type season and on mnay occasions makes the game look quite simple to execute. However, he is going to be tested in this matchup. Buffalo is one of the best passing defenses in the NFL ranking sixth in opponent yards per pass (6.1), fifth in passing yards allowed (213), second in interception percentage (3.78%), and best in sack percentage (9.64%)

Buffalo plays a 4-3 defense and is led my DE Mario Williams, who is graded as third best DE in the NFL. He has been incredible against the run, but has strong passing rush statistics as well. In 659 snaps played, he is the NFL sack leader (13), and has 29 QB hurries and seven QB hits on the season. DT Marcell Dareus ranks fourth best at his position overall and the NFL best 10 sacks for 4-3 tackles. The other DT is Kyle Williams, who is also playing at an elite level, has seven QB sacks, 11 QB hurries, and 23 QB hits on the season. They don't get the national media attention, but this front four are an absolute terror to OL and OC coaches.

At the LB position, the Bills have one of the best coverage defenders in the NFL in Preston Brown. at the other OLB is Nigel Bradham, who has been among the best at his position against the run and is above average in coverage situations. So,m through two layers, the Buffalo defense is quite strong with few, if any, holes for an OC to plan to exploit. 

Buffalo has very good CB too and are led by Corey Graham, who grades sixth best in the NFL. He is in very good company on that list, which is led by Seahawks Therold Simon, Colts, Vontae Davis, Rams Trumaine Johnson, Seahawks Richard Shermon, and Broncos Chris Harris, JR. Further, Graham is a great open field tackler and has missed just three tackles in 45 opportunities this season.  

Now, it is not logical to expect Buffalo to completely shutdown a Rogers led offensive attack. However, the unit as a whole will be a formidable force that will make it far more difficult for Rogers and his weapons to make plays and move the chains. 

Looking at the technical considerations we see that Buffalo has been a resilient team in past seasons. They have a posted a near-perfect 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) off a road loss over the last three seasons. Take the Buffalo Bills. 

25* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. I also like the 'OVER' for a 15* graded play. As an option, you can consider making a parlay bet in one of two ways. In situations liek this, I like using the action reverse parlay instead of a generic 2-team parlay. In a reverse, you get a 4:1 payout, but also assume a substantial more risk. For example, if you would wager $200 on the parlay using action revers, then if both hit you win 800, however, if one loses and one wins your loss would be 240 (20% vig at most windows. There are some that do charge just 10%). If both lose, then the loss if 480 on the 200 reverse parlay. I am confident enough in these situations that there is a far better chance of going 2-0 than 0-2. No guarantee of course, but track record support this confidence. Worst case is I do split. So, if we presume the Falcons cover, lose the total, lose the reverse, we will still be making a few extra coins. I wouldn't be outlining this opportunity if I didn't feel quite strongly and confident. Yet, as i ALWAYS have stated now for 20 seasons, please use discipline and never go 'All in" on any situation, especially if you are looking to recover from a losing weekend.  The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by 11 or fewer points and that more than 56 points will be scored. I simply see this is a shootout and find it easy to see both teams scoring 28 points. In past games over the L3 seasons GB is a stellar 20-1 'over' when scoring 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-9 ATS for 77% winners since 2003.  Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games with this game taking place in the second half of the season. This system has gone a perfect 11-0 over the past five seasons. The best matchup i see is that Rogers will have to go to other Packer WR instead of his stud Jory Nelson, who will be covered by one of the best CB in the league. Desmond Trufant ranks 6th best in the NFL in overall performance and 7th best coverage performance grade. Quarterbacks have a 79.2 quarterback rating when throwing into Trufant’s coverage. Matt Ryan ranks 4th best QN in pass accuracy rating at 77% and has many weapons at his disposal. Further, the rise of Falcons NT Jonathan Babnineaux is going to make it more difficult for the Packers to run between the tackles. I see this game tonight as a complete shootout in the passing game with the possibility of 'last team with the ball' having a great chance to win. Take the Falcons for a 25* play and 'over' for a 15* play. Do not exceed more than a 2* play if using the action reverse parlay. Good luck to us!

I like the Patriots to bounce back from their loss at Lambeau and defeat the San Diego Chargers. Despite the loss, the Patriots have solid control on gaining the best record in the Conference and home field advantage in the playoffs. There simply s not a better prepared team in the NFL. Belichick and his staff essentially recreate their schemes to exploit the opponents weaknesses and to minimize and almost eliminate an opponent's strengths. 

New England has the 19th easiest most difficult SOS down the stretch. In addition to San Diego, they will play Miami, New York Jets, and end the season home against Buffalo. Winning out is certainly the plan for this team as they begin to peak for another Super Bowl run. Denver can win ought as well having the 16th strongest schedule down the stretch. They host Buffalo this week, then play at San Diego, away at Cincinnati, and finish home versus Oakland. So, New England is fully aware that any loss could bring about monumental damage to hosting the Conference Championship game. 

The vast difference between these two teams is New England's offense that ranks third in scoring and second in points-per-play with a 0.466 ratio. By comparison, the Chargers offense ranks 14th in scoring and 13th in points-per-play with a 0.373 ratio. Patriots rank 13th in scoring defense and 11th in points-per-play allowed with a 0.322 ratio. By comparison, the Chargers defense ranks 12th in scoring defense, but 15th in points-per-play allowed with a 0.341 ratio. 

It appears based on the flash stats that the Chargers have a viable passing defense. However, this is misleading as most teams have exploited their below average run defense, specially in the second half of previous games. Enter the three-headed ground attack of the Patriots led by multi-purpose back Vareen, elusive power runner Jonas Gray, and the rejuvenated power runner of Blount. 

I don't see San Diego being able to stop or even contain the ground attack and this will force them to bring a safety up to the LOS for run help.  San Diego has allowed 107 or more rushing yards in six of the last seven games. The only team not to gain more than 107 yards was the highly anemic ground attack of the Oakland Raiders. When this happens Brady will go to work using play action to get extra time to find the best matchups in man coverage. As we have witnessed, Gronkowski has been huge in play action, but Brady will target the correct matchup on the field and fire strikes to any receiver involved in the play.  

The Patriots OL is playing at an elite level and rank 2nd in QB sacks allowing a sack on only 3.55% of the snaps. Brady has benefitted from this great protection by throwing an interception on just 1.30% of his pass attempts good for second best in the NFL. Brady has gotten the ball out within 2.75 seconds in blitz situations using quick slants, outs, ins, and bubble screens to a wide array of receivers. So, it is just not possible for any defense to minimize an obvious strength on the Patriots offense. 

Looking at the technical side of this game we see that the Patriots are on a very nice  6-0 ATS after one or more consecutive losses in games played over the last two seasons. Chargers are off an emotional and physical come from behind 34-33 win at Baltimore. However, they are just  0-6 ATS  in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored in game splayed over the last three seasons. 

Take the Patriots

25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a major showdown of NFL heavyweights set to start at 4:25 PM ET. When you take a look at the dominating wins by the Eagles, they have done so with immense pressure up the gut and getting pressure on the QB within 2 seconds. However, these schemes worked well against looking record teams most notably the NY Giants. Now, the pressure has to not only get through the OL, but also track down one of the most mobile QB in the NFL. Conner Barwin and Trent Cole combined are near the top of the NFL in pass rush efficiency grades. Yet, this duo and the Eagles defensive front will be competing arguably the BEST OL they have seen to date. There are just three tackles that have not allowed a sack and Seattle one of them in Okung. The other two are Andrew Whitworth and Lane Johnson). Further, the return of LB Wagner has made the Seattle defense incredibly fast and very physical. As a group the Seattle defense has graded tops in the majority of areas since Week 8. I am confident that the Eagles defense will be forced to play slower and that Seattle will play bump at the LOS on nearly every possible target. Back to the offensive side of the ball, I am confident that Lynch will have more than 100 yards on the ground and will be a factor in bubble screens and quick hits out of the backfield. These both will limit the amount of pressure Philadelphia can bring and will allow Russell even more time in the pocket off play action. The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-16 ATS mark for 71.4% winners since 2003.  Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers. The following game situations match my expectations for this game. Seattle is a strong 7-1 ATS L3 seasons when gaining 5.5 to 6.0 net yards per play; 16-8 ATS L3 seasons when they rush for 125 or more yards; 13-4 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards. Take Seattle for a 25* Titan play. Your added pair of 15* Titan totals are 'OVER' Miami-Baltimore and 15* 'UNDER' Patriots-Chargers. 

St. Louis had a historic last game defeating the Oakland Raiders 52-0. However, that does count only as 1 win and they will struggle in this matchup against the Washington Redskins. Generally, we have seen teams in all sports produce incredible levels of elite performance, which is simply unsustainable. It also works in very poor performance situations as well where their is a strong propensity for teams to rebound at perform closer to their average output in the next game. In some cases the performances can move vastly beyond the respective team averages and this is the case for this matchup. I see Washing producing above their season norm and St. Louis significantly below. 

The simulator reveals that Washington will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at getting a home win. Supporting this graded 25* Titan is a strong money making system that has gone 39-15 ATS for 72% winners since 1983. 45% of these covered the spread by 7+ points and underscores my expectations that Washington will win. Play against favorites (ST LOUIS) after three or more consecutive wins against the spread and is a marginal losing team winning between 40% to 49% playing a losing record team. This system reflects the under performance tendencies of losing record teams after a sustained period of above average trend performance. 

I definitely see Alfred Morris and the Washington ground attack have consistent success in this matchup. This will open up play action situations for QB McCoy to execute in high percentage situations. The best matchup I see is hitting TE Jordan Reed in slants and seem routes on play action. 

Reed had his best overall complete game of the season, catching nine balls on 11 targets for 123 yards, including 70 yards-after-the-catch. McCoy had a meteoric 113.3 QB Rating when throwing his way. He also forced two missed tackles on the day. There was one big play where the Colts made the mistake of putting a LB on him in man coverage and Reed caught a 30-yard pass and catch right down the seem. You can be assured that McCoy will be looking to get that man coverage matchup often in this game. 

Take Washington. 

25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in a critical AFC matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Play on favorites (MIAMI) and is a solid offensive team scoring 23 to 27 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG after 8 or more games have been played and after a win by 6 or less points. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for the outcome of this game. Miami is a perfect 5-0 L3 seasons when allowing 6.0 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 4.5 to 5.0 rushing yards per attempt; 12-2 ATS L3 seasons when they have scored 22 to 28 points; 7-1 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. A key matchup I see favoring the Dolphins is their DE Cameron Wake going up against RT Ricky Wagner. Since entering the league in 2009, Wake has always finished in the Top 3 in terms of pass rush grade at his position and currently owns the best rush grade of all 4-3 defensive ends. Wake has certainly caused his fair share of issues to opposing quarterbacks, accumulating 51 total pressures and a Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP) of 12.1, tied for fifth among all 4-3 defensive ends that have played a minimum of 132 passing snaps. Wagner may need periodic help to contain Wake from a RB or even a TE, which reduces Flaccos downfield receivers. This also allows Miami to be more creative with their zone blitz pre-snap looks. On the other side of the ball, I really like the power running of Lamar Miller. The Dolphins do run the ball effectively between the tackles. Miller has had 90 attempts between the tackles and 60 running outside the tackles. Although Miami is coming off a short week win against the Jets, the Ravens are still reeling from a crushing defeat blowing a 10-point 4th quarter lead. Take Miami.

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Chicago Bears in an NFC matchup set to start at 8:20 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Cowboys will win this game by 8 or more points. Dallas has sizable advantages on both sides of the ball. Statistically they have produced significantly better results in yards/play, points/play, rush percentage, Completion percentage, 3rd down conversion percentage, and red zone scoring percentage. DeMarco Murray is having a career year and leads the NFL with 1427 yards. Le'Veon Bell is a distance second with 1046 yards gained on the season. Murray's ground game will be a dominant factor in Dallas winning this game easily. Last week, Dallas got hammered by the Eagles. With 10:00 in the first quarter and Dallas driving for a score, Romo had room to move up in the pocket, but fell to the first 'fell' of pressure. I believe this is a sure sign that he is still not pain free from his back fractures. However, against Chicago, he will have far better protection and has had a full week of rest and preparation too. One of the lone bright spots on Dallas’ defense with a sack-fumble on Mark Sanchez early in the second quarter. Crawford was a general nuisance in run defense for the rest of the game, doing his best to slow the opposing run game when the Eagles ran his way. Against the Bears, he will have the support of the rest of the defensive unit. Cutler and Forte will struggle to keep th echains moving in what is a 'must win' game for the Cowboys. In fact, if the season ended last week they would have NOT made the playoffs. Dallas has the fourth easiest schedule down the stretch and they have an excellent shot at going 3-1 or even 4-0 over this stretch. They host the Colts and their hardest win owuld come in a revenge situation against Philadelphia next Sunday. First thing is to take care of a vastly weaker opponent. Despite the poor game by Romo last week, he ranks 3rd in the NFL in QBR behind leader Aaron Rogers and Manning.  Fourth place is held by Andrew Luck so those are some very good names to be associated with and I strongly believe he will lead his team to a big double digit point win. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for this game. Chicago has been a money burning 0-2 ATS this season, 2-8 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 22 to 28 points; 0-2 ATS this season and 0-6 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 7.0 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt; 1-6 ATS this season when allowing 6.0+ yards per play. Bears are an imperfect  0-8 ATS after having won two out of their last three games over the last two seasons. Take Dallas.

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road to play the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field starting at 4:25 PM ET. This easily could be a preview of the Super Bowl. I'll make this simple. Majority of teams reinvent themselves somewhat every season, but the Patriots have done nearly every single week featuring a new found offensive weapon that most have never heard of till that game. So, how does a DC prepare with a mix of solid Patriots players that include an elite QB and TE not being able to anticipate what that offense might gear up to accomplish. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 2003. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) after 2 consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. 44% of these plays covered the spread by 7 points and underscores my belief that Patriots will win. Here is money line system that has gone 22-10 for 69% winners since 2003 and has made 23 units/unit wagered averaging a +150 DOG. Play against home teams using the money line (GREEN BAY) in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing between 18 and 23 PPG after eight or more games and after a win by three or less points. It is likely that Revis will be defending Jordy Nelson. Whoever, Revis covers, which could be multiple players in varying down-and-yards situations, he will take them out of the play scheme. He has been the best CB in the NFL over the past five games by many metrics and has allowed an average of just 1 reception per 14.2 coverage snaps. Taking out Jody Nelson or using Revis as a defensive decoy will cause Rogers and Co. great problems in my estimation. Take the Patriots. 

The NFC South Division is by far the weakest Division in the NFL. The Falcons and the Saints lead with 4-7 marks and neither has a very strong chance of getting to 0.500. So, it may seem a bit contrarian for a play on a losing record team playing an Arizona squad with the best record in the conference. 

Atlanta is coming off a very tough loss to the Browns. A last second field was the difference, but despite this frustration, they are still tied for the Division lead. They also struggled on defense allowing 162 rushing yards and 313 passing yards for a combined 6.80 yards per play. Atlanta has been a resilient team, though, posting a 7-0 ATS mark after allowing six or more yards/play in two consecutive games in games played spanning the last two seasons. 

Stanton has done a decent job under center, but he has been making too many misreads when under pressure. This has been evident in both blitz and 4-man pass rushes. He has a tendency to lock-in on one receiver, which has led to the majority of his interceptions. When blitz by Seattle he averaged only 3 yards per play. Atlanta will blitz more than a third of all plays from a various angles and look to force Stanton into as many mistakes leading to turnovers or drive ending incompletions. 

I expect Atlanta to win the field position battle. With a short field and an offense that ranks 11th in yards per play and third in red zone scoring, they will score at least 24 points in this game. I strongly believe that Atlanta will get out to a lead and then put pressure on an offense that does not possess the elite skill position players to generate second half comebacks. 

The New York Giants are coming off an extremely physical game against the Division rival Cowboys and now play arguably the worst team in the NFL in Jacksonville. Yet, the Giants have just two more wins than Jaguars and are surprisingly similar to them in the defensive statistical categories. Further, the Giants almost beat the 49ers and TWO 11-point leads against the Cowboys. These types of failures are more difficult o absorb and move forward than simply getting blown out. So, I don't see much left in the Giants tank other than building for the future and seeing what more Beckham can contribute for the future. 

The matchup I see working very well is the Jaguars offense going up against a Giants defense ranking 27th in points allowed, 31st in yards per game allowed, 30th in points-per-play allowed, and dead last in yards per play allowed.  Granted, Jaguars have struggled mightily on offense, but they will be able to stretch the Giant defense and open up running lanes for the ground game. 

Bortles made 21 of 24 throws that were less than 10 yards in length in last week's loss to the Colts. I believe he will ample time to throw down field in vertical routes amid a decent ground game. Play action is a quarterbacks best pass blocker allowing time o scan the field and execute high percentage throws. The Giants defense allowed Romo 7.5 seconds of time to throw the ball on the winning scoring drive TWICE. In this light, Shorts and Lee have the speed, quickness, and athleticism, to create space and Bortes will get the ball to them. I also see TE Mercedes Lewis as a solid check down option. 

I also believe that the Jacksonville defense featuring LB Telvin Smith and DE Chris Clemons will be successful in containing the Giants offense. Former Seattle DE Chris Clemons finally had a monster game sacking Luck three times in the first quarter alone that included a strip-sack. Pressure on Manning is a dominant key in keeping Beckham under wraps and I see the Jaguars winning that matchup. 

The Giants allowed 34 points last week in their loss to the Cowboys. This is not good news noting they are just 1-9 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game in all games played over the last two seasons. Giants have allowed 30+ points in four of the last five games. I don't expect the Jaguars to score 30+ points, but I do see them scoring between 22 and 28 points. In past games over the last three seasons, the Jaguars are a perfect 5-0 ATS when scoring 22 to 28 points. 

15* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the St. Louis Ram sin NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a solid shot at an upset win. The records aside, these two teams are surprisingly similar. The difference is that the Raiders have been making steady improvements and are looking better on both sides of the ball. Although they rank near the bottom of the NFL in the majority of offensive stats, they ranks best in the NFL in Red Zone scoring. Stands to reason then that the Raiders will see an increase in red zone scoring opportunities facing the Rams 29th rank in points per play allowed ratio and 29th rank in TD allowed. To score points, a team needs solid QB protection. Raiders Tackle Donald Penn has been fantastic in recent weeks and ranks among the top-5 tackles in pass blocking. He has allowed 19 QB pressures, but just 1 sack and 1 QB hit on the season. On the defensive side of the ball the Raiders have the BEST run stop ILB in Mack, who has 15 more run stops than any other ILB in the league. Further, keep an eye on Antonio D. Smith, who has 30 QB pressures and ranks in the top-10 in 3-4 DE alignments in the league. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Play on road teams (OAKLAND) off 1 or more straight 'overs' and is a struggling offensive team scoring 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing between 23 to 27 PPG. Take Oakland.

15* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game by 7 or more points. The only 'red flag' on this game is that there is a betting imbalance with the public squarely supporting the Bengals. Now, the public is never always wrong, but I do generally like being on the 'book' side. Keep in mind too, that betting flows is just one of a ton of researched factors I perform each week and for every game. There is not one 'black box' type of indicator or stat that serves to validate a play by itself. A key matchup that I see the Bengals winning is against DT McCoy, who ranks best by a wide margin in pass rush and overall performance. He will be contained by the Bengals interior linemen Boling and Zeitler. Giving Dalton time to throw to a strong receiver corp led by A.J. Green will put immense pressure on the TB secondary. Bengals are a solid 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in games played in the second half of the season since 1992. Take the Bengals.

15* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they host the Cleveland Browns in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Bills will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2008. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) after a game where they committed no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. Kyle Orton has been critiqued unfairly with the talking heads always looking in the rear view mirror in evaluating his performance. The simple fact is he is a very intelligent QB and athlete, who just does not make mistakes and makes the plays necessary to put his team in position to win the game. His passer accuracy rating is fourth-best in the NFL. Bills have two elite defensive tackles in Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams and they will contain any form of ground attack from the Browns. The Bills got a real hidden gem in the third round of the draft in linebacker Preston Brown, who ranks best in the NFL ahead of Von Miller based on tackle efficiency grade. Take the Bills. 

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they host the Philadelphia Eagles in a critical NFC East matchup set to start Thanksgiving Day at 4:30 PM ET. I also have a 15* play 'under' for this game. I don't believe adding a parlay is warranted since there is already 40* amount of risk on this game. However, if you want to parlay these picks, then don't use more than a 5*  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 ATS mark for 73% winners since 1983. All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% and is now playing a team with a winning record. 45% of the games played based on the criteria of this system have covered the spread by seven or more points. I fully expect the Dallas offense to be in top gear and will score between 22 and 28 points and average more than 6.0 yards per play. In past games, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 22 to 28 points and 4-14 ATS L3 seasons when allowing more than 6.0 yards per play. You won't be surprised by the fact that I positively love the matchups that Dallas has and will dominate on both sides of the LOS. They rank second gaining 150 rushing yards per game and are going against an Eagle defense ranking 26th allowing 375 yards per game. Eagles are good on offense ranking 4th in yards per game, but rank just 28th in red zone scoring. Dallas defense ranks 13th in take-aways while Eagles are DEAD LAST  in give-aways. Eagles have 26th worst turnover margin. The Chip Kelly (Oregon offense) is designed to snap the ball quickly between plays and catch the defense not prepared or not able to substitute personnel. As a result the Eagles rank 30th in TOP. However, in this matchup that may be the worst thing the Eagles can do. Dallas ranks 4th best in TOP as they are quite well equipped to generate long time consuming scoring drives with either/both a power ground attack and elite passing attacks. Dez Bryant and Jason Whitten have a great matchups. This will force the Eagles to double team at least one of them. In turn, Dallas can use Bryant as a decoy and allow Romo to target  Terrance Williams, who is listed as questionable. Even he does not go in this game, the Cowboys have depth at WR with Devin Street, Cole Beasley, and Donald Hawkins, all of which could have big days with all the attention and focus the Eagles will have on Bryant and Whitten. The Dallas OL is the best in the NFL and I fully expect them to dominate the LOS. The Eagles have been very successful with using a wide array of blitzes, but I don't see that working against this OL. 

25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the New Orleans Saints in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. I also like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Let's look at the technical side first. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-25 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1983 and is on a 5-0 ATS run over the last three seasons. Play against home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) that are good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/attempt and after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. Saints have lost two straight games and the defense was torched in both of those losses to San Francisco and Carolina. Not a good situation for tha saints as their HC Payton is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. Let's take a detailed look at the fundamentals supporting my case for the upset win. Brees has an excellent pass grade of +22.0, which is third-best among all quarterbacks, a Quarterback Rating  of 94.54 good for fifth-best, and an Accuracy Percentage  of 80.8% third-best out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks. However, when facing pressure, which has been on 33.6% of his drop-backs, Brees’ production has dipped significantly. When dealing with pressure, Brees’ accuracy percentage falls to 73.6%, not a substantial decrease, but a decrease nonetheless. The vast reason for cause is the fact that Brees has thrown a league-tying six interceptions when under pressure, in comparison to just two touchdowns. Bress will facing three of the best pass rushers in the NFL in Elvis Dumervil, Pernell McPhee, and Terrell Suggs. Dumervil ranks best in various pass rush categories with McPhee raning third-best. I am confident that the Ravens will blitz far more than 33% of plays and closer to 60% and use a wide array of angles and gaps to completely confuse Brees' pre-snap reads. You'll also see McPhee line up in multiple locations as he has rushed from the right side 53% of the time and 38% from the left side of the LOS. Now, on the other side of the ball, the Saints secondary has been horrid with only one player, Patrick Robinson, grading positively in pass defense this season. They have regressed significantly over the past three week sand Flaco is an experienced field general, who will just not make mistakes. Instead, the Ravens will show a few formation wrinkles to allow them to get Steve Smith isolated in man coverage or to find areas in the zone for Flacco to execute very high percentage completions. Take Baltimore.

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they host the Washington Redskins in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  Biggest news Sunday is that if RG III is ineffective he will be replaced and benched. That can't bode much confidence for the rest of the unit. A bright note for the Redskins has been the elite play by LT Trent Williams. However, he will not be playing today and is listed as doubtful with an MCL. Rookie Morgan Moses will be given the near-impossible task of protecting the blind side against Aldon Smith and/or Aaron Lynch in blitz schemes. The duo combined for the best pass rushing ratings in Week 11 and I fully expect them to be getting to all Redskin Quarterbacks this afternoon. Pressure will be most effective from the perimeters since Redskins Center Kory Lichtensteiger has allowed only eight QB hurries in 384 passing block plays. I expect the 49ers to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games when the 49ers score between 22 and 28 points they have posted a 12-2 ATS mark over the L3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS mark this season.Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-25 ATS for 68% winners since 2008. Play against favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. Here is another game situation that matches my expectations. Washington has been a money burning 1-7 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 300 to 350 offensive yards. Take the 49ers. 

Arizona is playing well and has posted the best record in the NFL. However, they know face their stiffest test in the Seattle Seahawks Sunday. Seattle has several favorable matchups starting with their run defense. Arizona has been unable to get a ground attack going this year ranking 30th averaging 80 rushing yards per game. Seattle has a very strong defensive front seven ranking seventh in run defense allowing 90.8 rushing yards per game. I fully expect the Seattle run defense to dominate the Arizona ground game and force them into third-and-long situations. With a limited ground attack, Seattle will not be vulnerable to play action and can send pressure from numerous angles in passing downs. Seattle ranks third in pass defense allowing 215 yards per game. Another matchup I see Seattle winning is their ground game led by Lynch that ranks best in the NFL gaining 174 yards per game. Arizona has a great run defense ranking third, but I don't see this unit containing them. In fact, last week Lynch made contact with tacklers only 6 times behind the line of scrimmage in 24 carries against Kansas City. He also forced six missed tackles and gained 70 yards after first contact. The ability to successfully execute the power running game will open up a multitude of passing options for Wilson and his receivers that will be in man coverage situations. 

Arizona backup quarterback Stanton has played above expectations, but last week's win over Detroit was marred by some very poor decisions. In one play, he through a post route, but failed miserably to identify the underneath coverage by linebacker Josh Bynes. Seattle is arguably the best in underneath man and zone execution and disguise those schemes very well pre-snap. Seattle will look to force Stanton to make high risk throws over the middle of the field that may lead to several interceptions. 

Looking at the technical side of this matchup there is a a very strong system that has gone 33-7 ATS  for 83% winners since 2003. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that struggle to run the ball gaining between 70 and 95 yards per game and are now facing a team with a strong rushing defense allowing between 70 and 95 rushing yards per game. This system clearly underpins the fundamental matchups that I strongly believe Seattle will win. 

I also project that Seattle will gain 150 or more rushing yards. In past games, Arizona is just 1-6 ATS when allowing 150 or more rushing yards in games played over the last three seasons. On the other side of the ball, I expect Arizona to have less than 75 rushing yards. In past games, Seattle is a stout 3-1 ATS this season and 12-4 ATS the past three seasons. Take Seattle and lay the points.

Minnesota is getting 10 points in a home game against divisional rival Green Bay. I strongly believe that this double digit dog will stay within the posted number and make the Packers work hard to earn the win. The Packers are coming off a blowout win over a completely over matched Eagles squad. They rank first in the NFL in several offensive scoring categories. The Vikings though have a solid defense and one where the matchups are quite favorable in at least containing the Packers juggernaut. 

The Vikings lost to Chicago last week in a game that was marred by a malfunctioning game clock that impacted the end of the game. Still, they had chances to win. QB Bridgewater had a solid agme, but chose to check down to high percentage completions. The large majority of his throws were between the sideline numbers and within 10 yard of the line of scrimmage. He will challenge the Packers secondary that has been suspect in vertical routes periodically. Moreover, the Packers have not yet proved they can stop the run. I see the Vikings ground attack strong enough for the Packers to respect and this in turn will open play action for Bridgewater. That extra second or so to scan the field will allow him to identify the best opportunity in a man coverage situation. 

Another matchup that favors the Vikings is defensive end Everson Griffin, who has had three impressive games. He dominated the left side of the Bears offensive line and recorded five hurries last week. He has a great matchup this week that i expect to see end in a greater number of hurries on Packer general Rogers. 

Vikings defensive tackle Sharif Floyd had by far his best game against the Bears with tremendous lateral pursuit and gap discipline. His play will be critical at the point of attack in blowing up run plays and collapsing the pocket. Moreover, he will destroy any weak side blocking forcing those run plays to the extreme perimeter. 

The betting public is all over Green Bay in this matchup on the results of last week's blowout win over the Eagles. In fact, 81% of all bets made on this game are on the Packers and this is a sure sign of irrational exuberance by the betting public. This type of frenzied wagering flows serves to reinforce and further support the play on Minnesota. Take the Minnesota Vikings and as an option consider adding a small amount using the money line to take advantage of the possible shocking upset. 

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they host the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play against favorites (KANSAS CITY) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season. This system has gone an impressive 15-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 98-50 ATS for 66% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) after seven or more consecutive losses. This system reflects the public's continued abandonment of a losing team, which then forces the line for these games to become significantly inflated. This is a game that Oakland can win. I would suggest playing a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Head Coach Sparono has a nice track record posting a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) mark facing solid rushing teams averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached. The Raiders offense has struggled to produce multiple play scoring drives. Yet, they rank 2nd best in red zone scoring. The key to this game is to get their ground attack to gain respect from a KC defensive front that ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed per game. This in turn can open up opportunities in play action situations for rookie QB Derek Carr to execute. Raiders have given up the league fewets sacks mainly because the passing game is forced to throw quick slants and outs. Yet, the ground attack can work against KC and then Carr will have that extra time to step up and throw accurate passes. The Raiders have tremendous speed on the perimeter that will be a major advantage when they catch KC in man coverage. I had Oakland last week as a winning cover and despite not having any wins, they are improving now that Carr has been under center. Take Oakland. 

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road to play the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC showdown set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:30 PM ET.  I'm getting the more experienced and vastly better team with points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark for 85.2% winners since 2003. Play against any team (INDIANAPOLIS) off 1 or more straight 'overs' and i snow facing an opponent off six or more consecutive 'overs'. This is a pure situational system and it reflects the fact that the team with the 6 or more 'over' is also playing a high level of offensive execution. The system has gone a very nice 13-1 ATS over the last five seasons.  Moreover, Brady is 12-4 ATS as a 'dog' spanning all games played over the last five seasons; 9-4 as a 'dog' in road tilts. Colts QB Luck has thrown seven interceptions in his last two games facing Belichick and the Patriots. Brady is playing the best QB play in the NFL. In the first four weeks, he struggled mightily and ranked 25th in the NFL. However, whatever was wrong was fixed thereafter as he ranks first in several meaningful offensive QB categories. For example, he connected on just 1 of 16 deep passes (20+ yards from LOS to point of reception) attempts in the first four weeks. Since, he has connected on 10 of 21 deep balls. Like Brady, Gronkowski started off slowly, but over the last four games, he ranks best in the NFL in overall rating, receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch. Luck has his offense running well, but the Patriots have the defensive matchups that will contain their offense. Hightower has been the second-best inside linebacker in pass coverage this season. The defensive unit has been playing extremely well and rarely make mistakes in coverage or gap disciplines. Take the Patriots.

25* graded play on the Raiders as they take on the San Diego Chargers in AFC West action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Raiders will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. The Raiders are much better than their record indicates. Raiders will have several solid matchups that can exploit while on offense. Rookie QB Carr gets the ball out quick averaging just 2.60 seconds from snap to release. This will minimize the Charger blitzes and force them to play a base cover-2 zone. In turn, Carr will be able to use play action to set up opportunities to his very fast WR that will be in man coverage. Further, Carr has one of the best guards in the NFL. Rookie guard Gabe Jackson has not allowed a sack in 322 pass block snaps. I also like the matchup with TE Rivera set up in the slot. This formation has done very well recently and it exposes the Chargers defensive weakness. Charger defense has been terrible and history shows they are just 4-15 ATS in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992. For his career, HC Sparano, is 12-2 ATS in road games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting an amazing 33-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1983. Play on road teams in Weeks 10 through 13 after six or more consecutive losses. This system has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS over the last three seasons. It's certainly a contrarian play, but it is the right one. Take the Raiders. 

25* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they host the Denver Broncos in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Too many points to be giving a solid Rams team at home in this spot. Denver's wideouts is the main cog that make the Denver offensive machine difficult to contain. However, I really like how the Rams secondary stacks up agains these wideouts. Rookie cornerback EJ Gaines is playing at a very high level and ranks third in coverage grade. Rodney McCloud is playing very well at free safety and is one of the best tacklers in the NFL. Another rookie Aaron Donald is playing like a veteran and has graded very high in run stoppage. Further, defensive end William Hayes ranks among the Top-10 in the NFL. I expect Manning to be pressured up the middle and will not have near enough time to go through his read progressions. On offense, The rams will have an excellent matchup targeting TE Jared Cook. The Rams have done well against elite offenses. They are a near-perfect  8-1 ATS when facing a strong offensive team in the second half of the season that are averaging >=5.65 yards/play in games played over the last 3 seasons. Despite the losing record, the Rams have been a very resilient team coming off a bad loss. Rams under the leadership of HC Fisher are 10-1 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points in games played spanning the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-12 ATS mark for 73.3% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Take the Rams.

25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC Conference matchup set to start at 8:30 PM ET. If you look at the 'flash' stats, you immediately think this line is far too small given how well the scoreboard has read for the Eagles this season. However, when you tear deep into the matchups there readily appears the idea that this line is inflated. The media outlets are continue to focus on the stellar play of QB Sanchez last week after taking over QB duties for an injured Foles. He had a tremendous preseason, but let's be honest that was preseason and he now must face a desperate Carolina team that needs a win to stay in playoff contention. The Panther’s defense will be looking to disrupt Sanchez and make his first start as an Eagle a difficult one. They are a solid group that can bring pressure from anywhere. I see a huge advantage in collapsing the pocket with pressure up the middle, which will not allow Sanchez the area to step up and throw. This is nearly the same matchup I saw in our 25* Jets win over the Steelers. Defensive end Charles Johnson will lead the way in the QB pressure department. After a slow start to the season, Johnson has picked up his play as of late, earning solid pass rush grades and seven quarterback hurries in his last three games. Second year defensive tackle Kawann Short has also been solid rushing the passer in 2014. Short has accumulated 15 total pressures and a +8.3 pass rush grade this season. Knocking Sanchez off his rhythm and as a result he Eagle receiver routes will be a key factor in a potential Carolina victory. Keep an eye on Luke Kuechly as well. He leads all ILB in the NFL with 75 tackles and 3 passes defended, and 22 stops against the run. The Panthers have arguably the best safety in the league in Thomas Decoud, who ranks best in several categories including overage snaps per reception. For the first time in a long time, the Panthers have both Williams and Stewart in the backfield for tonight' s game. This duo combined with the extreme mobility and size of Newtown is going to be a big problem for the Eagles defense. The loss of LB Ryans is so huge that not even a platoon of LB will be able to recreate his intensive and disciplined play. You can be assured the Panthers will exploit this are of the field and target Ryan's replacement. however, they can also choose to use that Eagle weakness as a decoy and use formations that given the look going after that area, but instead using play action to connect with 6-5 240 pound Benjamin on the perimeter and in the slot. The Eagles corners will be overwhelmed by his size, speed, quickness, and hand strength. So far, my writeup looks like a 42-0 Carolina win, but the point is that even if this game becomes high scoring, Carolina has the matchups to compete in that high tempo style of game. The Eagles have a solid matchup with Maclin going up against average at-best corners in Norman and Cason. The pass routes will be shorter and will feature more slants, which is what Sanchez is great at delivering. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Of the many projections showing that Craolina will cover easily is that they will gain 6.0 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt. In past games, the Panthers are 2-0 ATS this season, 4-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 24-9 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 6.0 and 6.5 net passing yards. Carolina is a solid 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. Take the Panthers. 

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Denver Broncos in AFC West action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (OAKLAND) after seven or more consecutive losses and the current game taking place in the second half of the season. 48% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Over the past three seasons, it has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. Interesting too, is the fact that Denver is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when facing terrible teams getting outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season since 1992. On ematchup to watch is the great play of OLB Khalil Mack going up against Denver's LT Ryan Clady, who missed 2013 season and is still struggling to get the rust off. He gave only his first sack last week in the Patriots loss, but he has been awful in run blocking. Mack ranks best in the NFL by a wide margin in run stop and I strongly believe Clady will need double team help against him in blitz situations. Even for a Manning led team, it will be very difficult for the Broncos to be taking the Raiders as a serious opponent and may have a drastic letdown from the humiliating defeat last week in Foxborough. Take the Raiders. 

15* graded play on the New York Jets as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-20 mark for 71% winners since 1983. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season (NY JETS) after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games and is a terrible team winning

15* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in Wembley Stadium, London, set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Dallas has a great ground attack led by Murray, but I fully expect the Jacksonville defense led by LB Geno Hayes, to contain Dallas. Hayes ranks best in the NFL in run stop of the 22 qualifying OLB in the NFL. Further, he has not missed a tackle on the season. On the other side of the ball, I look for JAX RB Denard Robinson to have a big day and take pressure off of QB Bortles to try and make plays and sustain drives. Dallas is just 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when facing struggling passing defenses allowing seven or more passing yards/attempt in games played in the second half of the season over the last three seasons; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. HC Garrett is  0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after having won five or six out of their last seven games as the coach of Dallas. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 1983. Play against any team (DALLAS) off two or more consecutive upset losses installed as a favorite and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Take JAX.

15* graded play on Tampa Bay as they host Atlanta in NFC Conference action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TB will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager using an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-21 mark using the money line for 74% winners and has made 32 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against road teams using the money line (ATLANTA) after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games and is a struggling team winning between 25% to 40% of their games and is now playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Over the past three seasons, this ML system has gone 8-1 ATS for 89% winners. Further, the Falcons are a shocking 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when facing terrible passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse over the last three seasons. Take Tampa Bay. 

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the New Orleans Saints in a very important matchup for both teams that is set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning on the road in New Orleans. I suggest making this a combination wager consisting of a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. It will be the 49er defensive unit that will rise up and dominate this game. They are a vastly under rated group, but one that is fully capable to getting the job done against the fifth best scoring offense in the NFL. 49ers rank second allowing 292 offensive yards per game and third allowing 6.1 yards-per-pass play. Keep an eye on rookie ILB Borland, who is playing at an All-Pro level for the 49ers defense. He will responsible for getting RB Ingram down in space and I believe he will get the job done. This is critical to monitor as Ingram has forced an NFL-best 15 missed tackles since coming back from injury in Week 7. Another rookie OLB, Aaron Lynch, is playing great too. He has the second most QB pressures among rookie 3-4 OLB. He will pass rush from the left side and Brees must be aware of his presence. I expect SF to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games, they are 11-2 ATS when scoring within that range in games played over the past three seasons. Last, SF is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when facing passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt over the last three seasons. Take San Francisco. 

15* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Thursday NIght action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I suggest adding a 2.5* play using he money line in addition to the 15* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 22-6 mark for 79% winners and has averaged a +135 DOG play making 23 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play against home teams using the money line (CINCINNATI) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games and with the current game occurring in weeks 10 through 13 of the NFL season. Here is a second money line system that has gone 22-9 for 71% winners using the money and has averaged a +150 DOG play over the past 10 seasons.  Play on any team using the money line (CLEVELAND) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games against opponent after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. Much has been made about the absence of the Browns ground game in recent weeks that was so dominant in the first several games of the season. I highly expect to see the Browns ground attack back in full force. Note that  the Browns are a solid 10-4 against the money line (+19.0 Units) in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 1992. Moreover, HC Lewis is just Lewis is 2-11 against the money line (-10.2 Units) in home games when facing excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt as the Bengals. Cincy won against JAX last week, but their were numerous matchups where the Jaguars did quite well and ones that i see Cleveland doing even better. Bengals defense is highly suspect and ranks 30th in the NFL allowing 395 yards-per-game. Bengals can't stop the run ranking 30th allowing 140 yards-per-game. I feel confident that the Browns ground game will be strong and in turn opens up play action for Hoyer to utilize and will have more ample time to scan the entire field and make high percentage passes. Browns defense is solid and getting better. They rank 8th in scoring defense allowing 21.1 PPG and 6th in a very reliable and meaningful opponent points per play ratio at 0.307. I am well aware of the trends showing how strong Bengals are at home and how the Browns have been big money burners in road tilts, but this is a much different  and unique situation. I can fully offset those trends by simply stating the fact that Hoyer is 5-1 ATS as a road under dog in game splayed over the past three seasons. Take the Browns. 

25* graded play on the New York Jets as they take to the road to play the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) after 6 or more consecutive losses in November games. This simple money making system has gone 7-1 ATS for 88% winners over the past three seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 35=10 ATS for 78% winners since 2003. Play on road teams (NY JETS) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games and is a struggling team winning 25% or less of their games on the season. This system has gone 15-2 ATS over the past three seasons for 88% winers. The Chiefs have an solid secondary, but have struggled against the run this season. The Jets with Vick under center now bring two valid weapons for KC run defense to stop. RB Ivory has been quietly one of the best RB in the NFL. In his 113 touches this season, he ranks fifth in elusive rating and has produced a 4.7 YPR despite one of the worst run blocking OL in the NFL. Vick still is a duel threat and has two solid weapons to look to in Wilkerson and Cumberland. The latter, I believe will be quite effective in slot routes where easy reads can lead to high percentage short pass plays or in man coverage against a linebacker can lead to excellent opportunities in the vertical game down the seems. I fully expect the Kets to have a significant lead in TOP. This is critical fort the Jets to compete well enough to have the game decided in the fourth quarter. Jets are quite vulnerable at corner with converted safety Allen now considered the veteran of the group. Chiefs have the NFL sack leader in Houston (10), but given the sold ground game and Vick's elusiveness, I don't believe he will be a dominating factor going up against RT Giacomini. Last, Vick took all of the reps with the first team this week and that is more than enough time for the entire unit to adjust to a left-handed throwing QB. Take the Jets.

25* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Texans will win this game. Lets' look at the technicals first. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-18 ATS mark for 65% winners and has made 25 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against road favorites using the money line (PHILADELPHIA) and is a solid team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) and is now facing an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) and after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. Situationally, Houston is a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. I see Houston scoring points and within the 22 to 28 point range. In past games, the Eagles have been a money burning 3-10 ATS L3 seasons and 26-50 ATS since 1992 when allowing 22 to 28 points in a game. Eagles will get their share of offensive yards with a projection between 350 and 400 total. However, Houston has done very well in these types of games sporting a perfect 5-0 ATS record over the last three seasons. The Harvard grad QB Fitzpatrick has done very well in these types of matchups. He is 12-6 in games lined between pick-em and +3 and is 6-2 ATS against elite teams winning between 66 and 76% of their games. JJ Watt is always a matchup problem for any opposition and must have all offensive coordinators with more sleepless nights than usual. This week the Eagles come in with a banged up offensive line. Watt should get to a significant amount of time against banged up right guard Todd Herremans and left guard Evan Mathis’s backup Matt Tobin. Both Herremans and Tobin have each graded out negatively against the run and even lower in pass blocking so far this season. Watt continues to be a pass rushing machine as his +41.7 pass rushing grade more than triples 2nd ranked Jason Hatcher’s grade. On the other side of the ball Fitzpatrick is flying under the radar and ranks second best in deep pass completion percentage. This will certainly expose the weak and highly suspect corners, especially Williams. Take the Texans. 

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they host the Washington Redskins in an NFC East matchup set to start on MNF at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS mark for 72% winners since 1983. Play against underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and when playing next game on Monday night. Here is aMonday Night system supporting Dallas and has gone 55-24 ATS for 70% winners since 1983. 50% of these plays have covered the spread by 7+ points.  Play on favorites (DALLAS) off a win against a division rival and when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the projections from the SIM for this contest. Washington is an imperfect 0-6 ATS L3 seasons when they commit 2 or more turnovers. At the beginning fo the season, this game would have been lined somewhere at Dallas by 6, but given how well they have played and how Washington has struggled amid injuries and just poor management, the line is now 10 points. Derspite, the fact that this is two teams heading in opposite directions, the line does not yet reflect just how good Dallas has become in recent weeks. Further, Eagles lost and now with a win, Dallas can take full control fo the Division knowing they have Eagles coming up on Thanksgiving. Washington now has McCoy under center and the last time McCoy started an NFL game was Week 11 of 2011 with the Cleveland Browns. Washington will need to estbalish the run early with Moris, but that could be something quite unrealistic in this matchup.  Comeback Player of the Year candidate, linebacker Rolando McClain has resurrected his career in a big way and is currently second-best among ILBs overall and in Run Stop Percentage, tops in the NFL at the position. McClain will have the task to stop HB Alfred Morris and he will have plenty of help from his teammates as well. With seven straight 100-yard games, 43 missed tackles, seven TDs. Murray is having a career year and it’s not all attributed to the work of his OL. He is averaging 2.87 yards per attempt after contact, best in the NFL of any HB with over 100 rushes. Then you add all of the other offensive weapons at Romo's disposal and you can see why Dallas is expected to win this game and cover ATS easily. 

25* graded play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the Indianapolis Colt sin AFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Steelers will win this game. Given the dog line I like making this a combination wager using a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. SIM projects that Steelers will gain between 5.5 and 6.0 yards-per-play and when they done that in previous games they have gone an impressive 9-2 ATS L3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark for 82% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) that is an average defensive team allowing between 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing an defensive team allowing between 23 to 27 PPG and after allowing 9 points or less last game. This system has not lost in the past five seasons going a perfect 6-0 ATS. Further, Pittsburgh is a solid  25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Steelers are also a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games facing excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game since 1992. The Steelers are playing increasingly better on both sides of the ball. Notable is Jason Worilds 3-game stretch posting 1 sack, four hits, and 11 hurries. The Colts will have their hands full too with coverage of Antonio Brown, who ranks best in the NFL in several gradings in the stats. Moreover, the Steelers OL has records increasingly more positive grades in both run blocking and pass blocking. Steelers dominate both sides of the ball and win. Take the Steelers.

25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game by 4 or more points. Baltimore is the second ranked team in the NFL - second behind the Denver Broncos - in my algorithm based projections. Surprising to most, but Baltimore is building positive momentum each passing week and are playing at avery high level on both sides of the ball. The success of quarterback Joe Flacco and the passing game against a Bengals defense that struggled against Andrew Luck in Week 6 will be a dominant factor in this game. Flacco has the sixth-best QB rating (95.55) and fifth best Accuracy Percentage at 77.3% in the NFL. Yet, is has been his ability to find Torrey Smith and Steve Smith downfield that makes him most dangerous, especially against the Bengals suspect secondary. Flacco’s Deep Passing Accuracy of 57.7 ranks second finding the two Smith’s for a combined nine receptions, 333 yards and five touchdowns on deep passes. TE Owen Daniels is out for this game, but his replacement Crokett Gillmore is an exceptional athlete and at 6-6 and 251 pounds provides an ample target for Flacco to connect with on check downs. Not to mention his 4.8 40-yard dash speed that can lead to big plays down the seems in play action. Bengals were hit bad last week losing to the Colts 27-0. They are a money burning 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-8 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. Take Baltimore. 

25* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Chiefs will win this game by 9 or more points. SIm projects that KC will establish the ground game successfully and average between 4.0 and 4.5 YPA. In past games, they are 7-1 ATS when gaining between 4 and 4.5 YPR spanning the L3 seasons. Rams are coming off an impressive win over Seattle installed as 6 1/2 point dogs winning 28-26. However, Fisher is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points in all games he has coached. Points-per-play is a very important barometer at this point of the season given the valid sample sizes. In this matchup, KC enjoys very significant advantages on both sides of the ball. Rams rank 31st in the NFL allowing 0.484 PPP and are facing a KC offense ranking 14th posting a 0.366 PPP ratio. On the other side of the ball, the Rams have posted a 0.331 PPP good for a 24th ranking while the KC defense ranks 12th allowing 0.340 PPP. STL defense ranks 31st allowing 29.3 PPG, 28th allowing 4.8 yards-per-rush, 28th allowing 148 rushing yards per game. KC ranks 4th averaging 31 rushing attempts per game and 3rd averaging 141 rushing yards per game. Further, Rams will have trouble stopping KC even on third downs noting that KC ranks second converting 51% of those opportunities. Looking at player personnel, the Rams will have their hands full on offense. OLB Justin Houston has generated 29 pressures, leading all 3-4 OLBs in Pass Rush Productivity while also grading out at in Top-5 against the run. Tamba Hali, on the other side, has 17 pressures of his own, coming in at 16th among 3-4 OLBs with at least 180 snaps. Take Kansas City

50* graded play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they host the Houston Texans in a Monday Night Tilt set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 5 points. Let's first look at the supporting cast of technical data. The following game situations match the projections form the SIM. Houston is just 2-9 ATS the past three seasons and 12-38 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 22 to 28 points; 0-3 ATS the past three seasons, 6-19 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 400 to 450 total yards; 2-7 ATS L3 seasons and 11-33 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 400+ offensive yards. Pittsburgh is a solid 6-1 ATS L3 seasons when gaining 250 to 300 net passing yards. The following are historical situationas that support Pittsburgh. Houston is just  1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) facing defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons; Pittsburgh is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards-per-attempt since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Now for the fundamental evaluations. Watt has an absurd overall grades and the majority of that quotient is attributed to rushing the passer. He has 18 stops on the year while also accumulating four sacks, 20 QB hits, 17 hurries, and six batted passes. Roethlisberger will be the man he is chasing who is the fourth-best QB in the NFL under pressure among those with at least 180 drop-backs. Roethlisberger has the second-best completion percentage under pressure at 60.5% while throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions. What is most interesting is that there is little, if any correlation, to Watts' great game performances and the team win-loss record. In games where he has been a meanous on the field and disrupting offensive flows getting five or more combined sacks, batted passes, and run stops, the Texans are 3-4. Texans are 15-17 when he gets a combined 2 sacks, batted passes, or run stops. So, in my opinion, he is one of the greatest defensive players ever, but not one person, even a defensive one that scores TD's, can offset the other weaknesses on the team and make a ajor difference in the win-loss ledger. I also believe the Steeler OL led by Marcus Gilbert will perform well as a unit and give Big Ben the time he needs to complete passes and move the chains. I also liek the defensive matchup advantage the Steelers have against slot receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who has caught 13-of 14 targets good for 3.10 yards per route. The Steelers safety Polamalu is having another brilliant season and will a major factor in stopping the Houston ground attack and will also be called up to cover Hopkins. Despite Waat's efforts, the Texans defense still ranks just 29th allowing 397 yards per game. This unit will be going against a Steelers offensive unit that ranks 4th in the NFL gaining 397 yards per game, third averaging 4.9 yards-per-rush, 4th averaging 137 rushing yards-per-game, and 8th gaining 259 pass ing yards per game. Takle the Steelers. 

15* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the NY Giants in NFC showdown set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 9 or more points. Giants were humiliated in last week's stunning loss in Philadelphia 27-0. They are a much better team than was seen in that ridiculous effort and are much better on the road than home based on ATS stats of various measures. Yet, Dallas i arguably playing the top and most complete football on both sides of the LOS. The Cowboys DeMarco Murray has been running through opposing defenses this year with ease. He leads the league in forced missed tackles on rushing attempts with 35, while the next highest has 25. Murray has 792 yards rushing this season, a 250-yard lead on the second-leading rusher in the league, and has had 471 of those yards come after contact. One of the few negatives of Murray’s game this year is the three fumbles he has had, which is the most among running backs. Some observers have noted his heavy work load, but he has not been hit hard all that often this season. So, I believe he is still playing with fresh legs and Dallas OL is vastly better (there is no comparison actually) to that of the Eagles OL. I strongly believe that Giants will have immense difficulty stopping the Dallas ground attack and then will be exposed in vertical routes using play action when Romo sees cover-1 situations post snap. Giants are just 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game since 1992; Coughlin is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game as the coach of NY Giants. Dallas is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 0-6 ATS the past three season when allowing 150 or more rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) after a loss by 10 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Take Dallas.

15* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Raiders will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like playing this as a combination bet comprised as an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 mark for 79% winners since 1983. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) off 2 or more consecutive 'overs', a good offensive team scoring between 23-27 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23-27 PPG. Oakland came off the BYE and played by far their best game against a solid San Diego Chargers team. I strongly believe this will carry over to this matchup. Arizona loves to blitz and do so on 40% of snaps in 2014. Maurice Jones-Drew is back in the lineup and he was arguably the best blocking back in pass protection in the NFL in 2013. It goes largely unnoticed, but he is stellar with technique picking up blitzing corners and LB and this will give Carr that few extra fractions of a second to scan the field and deliver the ball in man coverage. The Raiders very young wideouts are extremely fast and execute disciplined routes. San Diego was exploited badly when any corner tried to bump them at the LOS and the same can be expected today in this matchup. Despite the record, Oakland now playing with confidence and they know they have a great shot at winning this game at home. 

25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Green Bay Packers set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 90-45 ATS mark for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Carolina appears to like extended road trips. HC Rivera is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) after playing their last game on the road;  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. Carolina is a solid 41-18 ATS (+21.2 Units) facing struggling rushing defenses allowing >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.  Here is a money line system that has been a great money maker with a 23-9 mark making 21 units/unit wagered averaging a +130 DOG play since 2003. Play against any team using the money line (CAROLINA) after beating the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game and is a solid team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Green Bay is coming off a real score in Miami and needed Rogers magic to win the game in the final seconds. Carolina is coming off a tie in arguably a game they could have won in OT. The Packers really struggle to contain an opponents ground attack. Newtown is become quite good in play action pass and has the mobility that can extend plays and put immense pressure on the Packers secondary. Newtown gained a season-high 107 rushing yards on a career high 17 rushing attempts last week. This is solid evidence that his ankle and ribs are near 100% healed and he will be a real problem for GB to contain. Newton is currently the top-graded QB with a +15.0 overall grade. Time in Pocket stats show that Newton is averaging 2.53 seconds to attempt a pass where he averaged 2.73 in 2013. He also has had the ball out in under 2.5 seconds on 51.8% of his drop-backs as compared to 40% in 2013. This is a critical matchup as Newton's duel threat serves to offset the mountain of injuries they have suffered with running backs this season. I believe you will see Carolina look to run the ball behind their best grading OL in Ryan Kalil and have success. Take Carolina. 

25* graded play on the New York Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a huge NFC showdown set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Giants will win this game. Based on the risk/reward profiles, I would only play a combination wager if this line would move to +3 1/2. It is unlikley that this will occur, but if it does, then consider a combination wager using a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. After an 0-2 start, the Giants new and improved West Coast variation offense is playing at a very high level. The Eagles are 4-1, but have attained this mark by playing the second easiest schedule of any NFL team to date. The Giants run the most 3 WR sets in the NFL and this presents huge problems for a highly suspect Eagle secondary. Moreover, the emergence of rookie WR Beckham as the third WR presents a real big problem given his speed and great route execution. Then add the Giants solid running game that will be going against the 20th ranked run blocking defense, which will set up play action for Eli to look vertical to Beckham, who will definitely be in man coverage, and you have the recipe for a dominating win. Eagles defensive front ranks 22nd in defensive pass blocking. Further, the Giants OL is quite good anchored by the best in the NFL in OT William Beatty. There is has been trash talking from the Eagles defensive players saying they are going to make Eli's night an absolute nightmare by bringing pressure. Yet, I don't see this happening under this new varied WC offensive scheme. Note that, Eli now ranks third in the NFL getting his passes off quickly in 2.5 seconds or less on 67% of the snaps. Giants defensive line ranks 3rd best against power running plays. The Eagles have struggled to get the ground game going against far weaker defensive front seven. Foles is having his own problems this season and ranks just 23rd this year at 82.5. He has a 53.3 rating on passes of 20+ yards in the air, getting picked off a league-high four times on 31 attempts, which is also tops in the NFL. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-31 mark for just 51% winners, BUT has made a whopping 40 units/unit wagered since 1983. The average play has been a +220 DOG. Play against home teams using the money line (PHILADELPHIA) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread and is a top-level team winning >= 75% of their games and now playing a marginal winning team winning between 51% to 60% of their games. 

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by four or fewer points. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* amount on the line and a 4* play on the generous money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games. This system has gone an impeccable 7-1 ATS for 88% winners over the past three seasons. Washington is the best 1-4 team in the league, at least on paper. Getting on the road for many losing record teams offers far more peace of mind and ability to just focus on playing the game and executing game plans. Cousins has played well and I look for him to be more like his first two starts than his last two. He ranks fifth in the NFL averaging 8.1 yards-per-attempt and ranks in the Top-10 in both completion percentage beyond 20 yards and total passing yards. Arizona has two of the best corners in the game in Peterson and Cromartie, but there are many other opportunities to exploit downfield. Further, the Washington defense matches up very well against the Cardinals offensive scheme, which will be limited given their QB situation. Hatcher ranks  best with 4 sacks by a 3-4 DE and is second behind Watts in pass rushing grade at his position. LB Kerrigan ranks  third among 3-4 OLB in pass rushing grades and second in the league causing 15 QB hurries. I strongly believe that Arizona will struggle to move the chains on offense and that Washington will dominate the LOS on both sides of the ball. Further, in last Sunday's loss to Denver the Cardinals lost two more starters in OLB Shaughnessy and DE Calais Campbell. You can bet that Washington will look to attack the left side of the defense where Shaughnessy plays. Take Washington. 

25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Green Bat Packers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like a combination wager for this play consisting of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1983.  Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) off 2 or more consecutive 'overs', a good offensive team scoring between 23 to 27 PPG against a defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Miami is a rock solid 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when the rush for 5.0 to 5.5 yards per attempt; 9-1 ATS L3 seasons when they score 22 to 28 points; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 350 to 400 total offensive yards. Further, Philbin is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home underdog as the coach of Miami. Here is a money line system supporting the upset projection and has posted a 33-9 mark for 79% winners over the past 10 seasons and has made 30 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams using the money line (GREEN BAY) after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game in weeks 5 through 9. The average play has been a +120 dog and has gone 2-0 already this season. The Miami defense is quite good , especially in the secondary. I fully expect that unit to cool down the red hot combination of Rogers to Nelson in this game. Miami runs the ball very well and Green Bay has significant trouble stopping the run. Based on my metrics, GB defensive line ranks 25th in the NFL in run blocking. Further, they rank 18th in pass rush efficiency. Miami's OL ranks second best in the NFL behind St. Louis, in run blocking and rank 14th in pass protection. In Week 1, the Packers were easily defeated by the Seattle Seahawks, who rank 6th best currently in run blocking. Further, Miami's OL does an fantastic job getting to the second level. They rank best in the NFL by a wide margin in yards gained at the second level. So, I fully expect Lamar Miller to have a big day running the ball. Yet, it doesn't stop there either, as Knowshon Moreno is expected back from his elbow injury. QB Tannehill will have many options available to him in play action to keep the chains moving. Take Miami.

10* graded play on the Colts as they take on the Houston Texans in a significant showdown of AFC South Rivals.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Colts will win this game by five or more points. SIM shows projections calling for the Colts defense to contain the Texans offense to between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per play and 300 to 350 total offensive yards. In past games, the Colts are a near-perfect 8-1 ATS when they have allowed 300 to 350 offensive yards in games played over the past three seasons; 7-1 ATS when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play in games played over the past three seasons. Colts will be without two starting guards along the OL and this certainly will force them to use a second TE to double team Watt on the perimeter. He has been relentless and is playing a higher level then even the great Reggie White once did for the Eagles. However, Luck has been exhibiting a near-perfect pocket passer clinic so far this season. He is getting the ball out quickly and will use a three step drop tonight more often than in previous games.  Simply stated, the Colts have far too many weapons on offense for Watt and his teammates to contain. Further, Colts love the Thursday Night lights posting a 9-1 ATS mark. Take Indianapolis. 

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they host the Seattle Seahawks in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. I also like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-16 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play on underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) that is an excellent passing team averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt and after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games. This system has gone a near-perfect 11-1 ATS mark over the past three seasons. This is certainly a contrarian type of play with the Seahawks comig off the BYE and the Redskins reeling from a comprehensive and embarrassing defeat to the Division rival Giants. Yet, that is exactly why this play makes sense to me. I am more focused on the personnel the Redskins do have and that I fully expect them to bounce back strong tonight. I am not concerned about Cousins and how the Redskins offense will perform tonight, but rather the MAJOR advantage that the Washington defense, especially the D-line has in this matchup. In his final two seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, Jason Hatcher recorded 16 sacks and 93 total pressures, making him one of the most disruptive interior pass rushers in the league. He hasn’t missed a step since arriving in Washington, with a +9.8 pass rush grade, second among 3-4 defensive ends, four sacks, 13 total pressures and a 10.8 Pass Rushing Productivity score. Hatcher takes on an offensive  line featuring three players with negative pass blocking grades; J.R. Sweezy (-1.9), Max Unger (-1.3) and Justin Britt (-1.1) and he will present a constant threat for the entire game. Further, Ryan Kerrigan ranks second-best among linebackers with more than 50 run snaps played and has recorded five sacks, three QB hits, and 21 total QB pressures. Take Washington. 

25* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC Conference action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable upset projection, I will make this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1983.  Play against favorites (PHILADELPHIA) in a game involving two poor rushing teams with both out rushed by opponents by 40+ YPG and after being out rushed by 100 or more yards last game. Here is a second system that has gone 37-24 using the money line and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play against home teams using the money line (PHILADELPHIA) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. Philadelphia is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. Rams offensive line is quite good and vastly better than the Rams offensive unit stats would otherwise suggest. RT Barksdale is among the league best in run blocking and each player along the OL has achieved a positive run blocking grade for the season. The Eagles have a young and aggressive DL, but will need to bring a safety into the box to help stop and contain the run. The Rams HC Fisher named third string QB Austin Davis the starter for the remainder of the season. He ranks first in the NFL with a 72.3% completion percentage and has shown great awareness and accuracy in play action pass plays. Eagles defense has been largely inconsistent and I strongly believe the Rams offensive will be quite successful running and passing the football. The Eagles OL is in a state of flux, but do have RT Johnson returning after serving his four-week suspension for violating the league substance abuse policy. Yet, the OL needs reps to be cohesive and to consistently open up running lanes for their frustrated All-Pro RB McCoy. Foles has struggled this season, but will have a better game this week than the disaster he had in San Francisco last week. Yet, the vast holes on both the offensive and defensive units will give the Rams an d excellent shot at bringing their record to 2-2 for the season. Take the Rams. 

20* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the the Vikings will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Green Bay is off a very impressive win at Chicago and now play a Vikings squad that I believe matchup very well against the Packers. The apasckers are led by Jordy Nelson and Randal Cobb, who are at the top of the league or near the top in many statistical categories and metrics. However, the Vikings secondary has played well in pass coverage thus far this year, and even more so considering they have already faced Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees. In the first four games this year, Brady has been the only quarterback to notch an overall positive grade. Safety Harrison Smith leads the team in coverage with a +6.1 grade, and an overall grade of +9.1, which ranks him as the top safety in the league. When quarterbacks throw into Smith coverage their NFL QB Rating is a 53.8. Further, Xavier Jones was matched agaist Atlanta's Julio Jones and held him to just two receptions on four targets for 27 yards. This performance was Rhodes' best of his career. Josh Robinson ranks as the 4th best corner in the NFL based on our metrics and has allowed just three yards after the catch on 6 total receptions. Teddy Bridgewater is listed as questionable, but from all media sources, it appears very likely he will start. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Vikings are a solid 12-4 ATS over the past three seasons when they gain 6 or more total yards per play; 7-1 ATS when they gain 7.0 to 7.5 yards per play; 13-3 ATS when they have rushed for 125 or more yards over the past three seasons; 6-1 ATS when they have rushed for 150 to 175 rushing yards. Packers are just 3-9 ATS over the past three seasons when they have allowed 150+ rushing yards; 2-5 ATS when they have allowed 6.0 to 6.5 yards per play over the last three seasons. Take Minnesota.

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.  I also like the 'under' for a 10* play and then play a 5* parlay with the Patriots and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-3 mark for 89.3% winners using the money line since 2008. Play on favorites using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) that is a mistake-free team committing

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 8:20 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. Given the favorable projection I will be making this a combination wager with a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 59-8 mark for 88% winners and has made 40 units/unit wagered since 2003. Play against road teams using the money line (NEW ORLEANS) after 1 or more consecutive wins and is a team winning 25% to 40% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. This system is a perfect 10-0 over the past three seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Saints are a money burning 2-8 against the money line (-9.8 Units) in road games when they gain 300 or more net passing yards over the last 3 seasons;  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Saints have two excellent pass rushers from the edge in Galette and Jordan.  However, Dallas has Tyron Smith is an elite left tackle with a sixth-placed Pass Block Efficiency of 97.4 while Doug Free seems to have regressed after a solid 2013 by posting a PBE of 93.8 that has him ranked 54th out of 63. It will be critical to the Cowboys chances that Free hold up his end of the bargain, even if it requires some chip blocks from running backs and tight ends. Further, DeMarco Murray leads the NFL with 75 rushing attempts and 388 rushing yards. DE Crawford is off to a fast start as well ranking second best in pass rushing efficiency and DT Melton has been elite at minimum generating 7 pressures on 63 pass attempts. Take Dallas

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. Eagles OL has had numerous injuries and now have at least one first time starter in today's lineup. The 49ers defense will be a unit that will make things far more difficult for the Eagles high paced offense to get started and find that scoring flow this afternoon. The Eagles defense has been very suspect on the corners and up the gut. The 49ers have excellent WR that can spread the field and make the middle of the field even more suspect with the power running Frank Gore and easy to execute passes to the TE ( presuming Davis doesn't start). The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by at least 7 points. 49ers HC Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when facing awful passing defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards/game as the coach of SF. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Eagles are just 2-7 ATS when allowing 125 to 150 rushing yards over the past three seasons; 2-8 ATS when allowing 22 to 28 points over the past three seasons; 49ers are 7-0 ATS when scoring 22 to 28 points over the past three seasons; 6-0 ATS when they gain 3.5 to 4.0 yards-per-rush over the past three seasons; 11-2 ATS when the 49er offense gains 350 to 400 total yards. Kaepernick is a solid 13-3 ATS in lined games between 3 and 6 points. Take the 49ers. 

25* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bucs will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a solid shot an upset win. Given this favorable projection, I will be playing this 25* Titan as a combination wager consisting of an 18* play using the line and a 7* play using the inflated money line. The inflated part of the line comes from the horrid performance put forth by the Bucs in their last game losing 56-14 to Atlanta. I don't believe that the Bucs are a disorganized team with a coaching staff that is not respected by the players. I do believe they will be focused to put forth a great effort today. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 ATS mark for 86% winners since 2003. Play on any team (TAMPA BAY) that is a struggling offensive team scoring between 14-18 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23-27 PPG and after a loss by 21 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 30-9 ATS for 77% winners since 2008. Play on road underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) off 1 or more straight 'overs' and is a struggling offensive team scoring 17 or less points/game. Steeler HC is a weak Tomlin is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) after a win by 14 or more points as the coach of Pittsburgh;  5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) facing weak teams outscored by 6+ points per game on the season.  The Steelers lost three defensive starters and I do strongly believe that QB Glennon will be very effective running the offense. The now not retired Harrison will b ein th elineup at outside LB.McGown is lost for the season with a torn thumb ligament. Further, Rothlisberger is one of the toughest QB to play, but is also nursing a nagging series of injuries and listed as probable. The Steelers run a high number of varied screen plays and I believe this does play into the strengths of the Bucs defensive unit. The Steelers use a power run game, but here again, I expect the Bucs to stop it. Lavonte David has recorded 16 defensive stops on the season, which is twice as many as anyone else for the Buccaneers. Verner has four stops in run defense for a Run Stop Percentage of 4.9, which is good fourth-best. He also has four stops in pass coverage and has not missed a tackle in the passing game. Just two examples of the quality of this defensive unit that went absent 10 days ago against Atlanta. Take the Bucs. 

25* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the NY Jets in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:35 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bears will win the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-3 ATS for 89% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (NY JETS) that is a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points/game and after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 42% of these games covered the spread by seven or more points. Jets are just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off 1 or more straight 'over' results spanning games played over the last 3 seasons. The Bears have a tremendous matchup advantage in the passing game attacking the suspect Jets secondary. Of note, Ryan's secondary needs to show improvement after Aaron Rodgers passed for 346 yards and three touchdowns if they are going to be able to stop Cutler. The Jets were hoping the return of top cornerback Dee Milliner from a high ankle sprain would tighten things up, but he struggled against the Packers and sat out Wednesday's practice, leaving him questionable for Monday. Cutler, who has a 61.6 completion percentage, 14 touchdowns and three interceptions in leading the Bears to a 6-1 record on Mondays. He is off to a great start and perhaps the best of his career completing 69% of his passes with 6 TD and 2 INT for a 100 passer rating through two games. Further, the team leader in receptions, Eric Decker, is still questionable for tonight's contest. he left with a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter of the last game. Hamstrings are the most sensitive of physical ailments any athlete in any sport can suffer and many times, they take a long time to completely heal. Playing week to week with these strains is difficult at best and one stride can highly aggravate the injury and force a player out of action. The jest will be focusing on attacking the Bears run defense that has been gashed in the first two games. However, the Jets are not a big threat through the air and the Bears can safely place an extra safety in the box and show many different looks pre snap. Jets rank 30th in the league averaging just 178 passing yards per game. This also reflects their inability to exploit defenses off of play action. Bears is the play. 

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. Given this favorable projection I will be making this a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-3 ATS mark for 89% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) and is a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points/game and after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 42% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points and under scores my strong belief that Washington wins this game. Here is a money line system that has posted an impressive 51-27 mark for 65% winners and has made 29 units/unit wagered averaging a +122 Dog line since 1983. Play against any team using the money line (WASHINGTON) after a win by 21 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games. SIM projects that Washington will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. Philadelphia is just 1-8 against the money line (-9.4 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles will struggle to run the ball. Washington's defensive linemen Jarvis Jenkins, Chris Baker, and Jason Hatcher are especially tough against the run. Linebacker Keenan Robinson is their top tackler and makes great pursuit angles and is never out of position. Washington has not allowed a run of longer than 12 yards. The Eagles are expected to keep Dennis Kelly at left guard and Andrew Gardner at right tackle. Kelly will be completely dominated with Hatcher throughout this game and the Eagles cannot use double teams against Hatcher either. I like Washington in this matchup. Take the Redskins.

20* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that TB will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at the upset win. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-8 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) that was a struggling team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. 40% of these DOG plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and serves to reinforce my strong belief that upset is in the cards. The ground attack will be a dominant reason why the upset occurs. The SIM projects that TB will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards with or without Martin in the lineup. TB is a solid 4-1 ATS over the past three seasons and 38-14 ATS since 1992 when gaining between 125 and 150 rushing yards in a game. Martin is upgraded to probable and will play. Obviously, the greater the amount of rushing yards that exceeds the 150 hurdle, the greater the probability that TB will win the game SU. Falcons Jones and White are listed as probable, but have injuries (hamstrong and ankle) that can be worsened on one play. So, for the reason that both WR are playing hurt and are not at their elite levels of performance allows the Bucs defense to play more man coverage and to disguise corner blitz schemes far more effectively. Take the Bucs

10* graded play on the Philadelphia Eagles as they take on Indy in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will win this game. This is a repeat of the above information. It is only Week2 and there are already a ton of major injuries to numerous teams in the NFL. Mathis is gone for the Colts and his replacement last week, 2013 first round draft pick Werner, had ZERO QB pressures and only 3 tackles in the loss at Denver. The Eagles are banged on the OL, but have solid replacements to fill in. They are certainly not all-pro caliber subs, but the Eagles offensive scheme does not mandate elite skills from it's OL. In fact, the high pace of the Eagles offense mandates that the OL only hold blocks for a matter of 2 to 3 seconds and this makes it far easier for these subs to do what is required in executing any of the plays on the Kelly arsenal. I also strongly believe the Eagles will look to run at Werner sides of the LOS and also run the ball a higher number of times than their average over the past 2 seasons. This will then set up play action for Foles where he has been excellent - as is the majority of NFL quarterbacks.

25* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that STL will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and have a great shot at getting an upset road win. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination play just as we did in Saturday's Huge 25* Titan play using ECU. Play a combination wager using an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 3-13 mark using the money line and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against any team using the money line (TAMPA BAY) that is off an upset loss as a favorite and in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with three or more straight losses. SIM shows that Rams will contain the Bucs to 21 or fewer points. Over the past three seasons, the Rams are a perfect 6-0 ATS when allowing 15 to 21 points in a game. Given the QB situation, the Rams will focus more on the ground attack and will be quite successful in that effort. The Rams are a nice 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons and 26-13 ATS since 1992 when gaining between 125 and 150 rushing yards. Rams were the only team not to score a TD in Week 1, but I believe the matchups favor a solid offensive day for the Rams. The public jumped ship very quickly on the Rams and have bet nearly 70% of their wagers on the Bucs and have completely ignored the Rams. Despite the absence of DE Long, the Rams still have a solid front seven that features All-Pro Robert Quinn. Containing that imposing defensive line may be even more difficult for Tampa Bay given that Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins isn't even close to 100 percent healthy. Mankins, acquired from New England on Aug. 26, left in the second quarter of last Sunday's 20-14 loss to Carolina with a knee injury and did not return. Coach Lovie Smith isn't sure if Mankins will be able to start, but he said the injury wasn't too serious and the team won't seek out another lineman. So, with a strong ground attack, the Rams can then use Hill in easy to read play action passes and maximize yards after the catch. Now, you can see the matchups that make me a strong believer the Rams will cover this number and may even win the game. Take the Rams.

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 7 or more points. Briefly and perhaps bluntly, the 49ers are the better team on both sides of the ball and they certainly have better coaching. The Sim shows consistent and conclusive projections that the 49ers will dominate this game and the following game situations support those projections. SF is 11-1 ATS when they gain 350 to 400 total offensive yards over the last three seasons; 12-3 when they have gained 6.5 to 7.0 Yards-per-play; 8-2 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points; 11-3 when they have allowed 75 to 100 rushing yards 8-2 ATS when they have gained 200 to 250 net passing yards. Dallas is a money burning 2-6 ATS over the past three seasons and 10-46 ATS when they have allowed 150+ rushing yards. Further, 49ers are a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take the 49ers. 

10* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at pulling off what would be a most amazing upset win. If you can play the money line add only a maximum of 1.5* units on a money line lay on JAX (just in case). Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-12 mark for 77.4% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) and was a struggling team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. Simply, this system under scores the Not For Long 'logo' of the NFL. Each season there are 4 to 5 new playoff teams in the fold. I'm not saying that JAX will be a playoff team, but I do believe that they can be a second place team in the Divisional race. So, playing 'OVER' the wins total is an excellent wager as well. I suggest a 5* amount on that play. JAX is thin at wide receiver for this game. Shorts is out officially with a hamstring and then Blackmon is out indefinitely and Sanders out for the first four games of the season due to violation of league's substance abuse policy. Still, Marquis Lee, is an excellent target for Henne. Lee has the size, quickness, and hands to have a huge day against a suspect Eagle defensive secondary. The biggest matchup is Toby Gerhart at RB for JAX. The Eagles failed miserably to stop power runners between the tackles last season and it is quite possible they could be even worse in that category. Speaking of defense, JAX has a much improved scheme and one that I truly believe will cause major 'read' problems for both Foles and the Eagle receivers. Eagle fans may just think this will be a walk in the park, but they may be extremely anxious when JAX has the ball late in the 4th and down just 6 points or less. Take Jacksonville.

10* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the NY Jets in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Rookie QB and a team that positively no one respects at all, yet this line is less than a score.  The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game SU. Given this favorable projection, I encourage you to make a combination wager consisting of an 8* amount using the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OAKLAND) that was a struggling  team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. Derek Carr will start for the Raiders and rookies traditionally have had poor games in their first few starts. Yet, Carr has several matchup to exploit today. The Jets corners are not lock-down types as they had had in past seasons. In fact, I don't see them being able to play consistent man defense against the Raiders WR corp. Since HC Ryan became the Jets' head coach in 2009, rookie quarterbacks are 1-7 the first time they faced a Ryan defense. In those eight games, the rookies have completed 48.3 percent of their passes (129 of 267) for 1,522 yards, six touchdowns and eight interceptions and have absorbed 27 sacks. So, with this history lesson, the Raiders have an excellent OL and can easily run short passes into the flat and even bubble screens. Carr will no doubt use a quick release and get the ball out quickly. Further, I see the Oakland running game being highly effective against what will be an overly aggressive Jets defensive front. Once the ground game gets going, then Carr will have the luxury of using play action to freeze pass rushers and supporting LB. He has a tremendous arm and the Raiders will look to go deep in vertical pass routes on any down. Raiders will control the clock and that will be a big reason they win this game. Take the Raiders. 

10* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the Chicago Bear sin NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Bills will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at pulling off an improbably upset win.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) and was a struggling team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. The game projections call for a huge day on the ground by the Bills. The projections call for a 176 rushing yards. In past games, where the Bears have allowed more than 150 rushing yards, they are just 3-9 ATS the past three seasons and 18-56 ATS since 1992. When allowing 175+ rushing yards, the Bears are a money burning 2-5 ATS the past three seasons and 9-36 ATS since 1992. Bills are 5-3 ATS over the past three seasons and a 41-9 ATS since 1992 when gaining 175+ rushing yards. Bills will control the LOS on both sides of the ball and given the ground attack they will have a huge edge in TOP. Take the Bills.

10* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on Seattle in NFL action set to open the 2014 regular season at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Packers will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at upsetting the reigning Super Bowl Champions. I like using a combination wager for this game by playing an 8* amount using the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line for a 10.5* total risk amount. Aaron Rogers is the dominant reason I see the Packers upsetting Seattle. McCarthy's west coats offensive schemes till stretch defense vertically and this is clearly where Rogers is exceptional. He is arguably the best deep thrower int he game having ranked second last season in Deep Passing Accuracy over the past three seasons. The ground attack will feature the power attack of Lacy. Nothing has changed really with the Packers ground attack other than Lacy will get even more touches in 2014. The power ground attack is strong enough for even elite defenses to have to respect and this in turn opens up play action for Rogers to add valuable time in the pocket to scan the field. When he has time, his accuracy is undeniably the best in the NFL. Last year was easily the best season of Jordy Nelson’s career. Having the Seneca Wallace-Scott Tolzien-Matt Flynn combination at quarterback for 7 games and without Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley on the field for most of the year made it all the more impressive. Showing that he can do just about anything, Nelson racked up the fourth-most receiving yards from the slot—an alignment he was rarely utilized in in the past. At the other receiver spot, Cobb was on pace for over 90 receptions and 1,200 yards prior to his injury and his 77.5% catch rate was the highest in the league at wide receiver. Russell Wilson is a contrast in QB form and purpose to that of Rogers. He is highly ineffective on passes of 30 yards or more and is average at best for passes between 21 and 30 yards. Despite his scrambling abilities, he is less effective in that situation than simply executing a drop pass play. On standard drop passes he completed 66% with a 73% accuracy rating. On rollouts he completed 62% and had a 75% accuracy rating. When on the run and scrambling he completed only 51% of his passes with a 53% accuracy rating. So, I fully expect Green bay will bring timely corner blitz pressure on him from the weak side of the offensive alignment. Although Seattle is an elite team, I strongly believe that Green Bay has a ton to prove. Take Green Bay.