Rating: 3 Units

Consider that following:  Teams arriving to a Super Bowl game off a point spread loss are 3-8 SU and 2-8-1 ATS since 1980. Those coming in off an SU win as an underdog in the Championship Round are 19-7-1 ATS. As well as all this Super Bowl history with these awesome stats: Super Bowl favorites of 5 or fewer points in ‘double rest’ affairs – a week of rest before their first playoff game and a week of rest before the big game – are 5-12 SU and 4-14 ATS (San Francisco), No. 1 seeds in the Super Bowl are 15-19 SU and 12-20-2 ATS since 1990, including 7-11 SU and 4-12-2 ATS versus non-No.1 seeds. (San Francisco), Teams who fail to score 20 points in the Super Bowl are 2-25 SU and 4-22-1 ATS since 1980. Teams that score 27 or more points in the Super Bowl are 31-5 SU and 28-7-1 ATS since 1980, and the SU winner of the Super Bowl game is 48-7-2 ATS. Pick the winner of the game, and you’ll likely have a winning ticket. We're on the Chiefs.

Rating: 2 Units

NFL playoff dogs with the better win percentage (Lions) are 31-21-2 ATS since 1980 – but only 6-22 SU and 11-15-2 ATS when taking more than three points, featuring 0-15 SU and 3-11-1 ATS since 1996. On the other side of the field, the 49ers’ trip to the NFC title game will mark their 19th since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. That number is a record, and it’s four more than the next closest team in the NFC. It is also San Francisco’s third straight trip to the NFC title game and fourth in the past five seasons. Today’s win would give them an NFL-best 38th postseason win, one more than the Patriots and the Packers. For now, Frisco is 24-6 SU and 21-9 ATS from Game Ten out the past three seasons, while NFC No. 1 seeds in the championship round arriving off a win-no-cover are 10-5 SU and 9-5-1 ATS. And don’t forget that 49ers’ coach Kyle Shanahan is now 5-0 at home in the playoffs.

Rating: 2 Units

In four career stats against the Ravens Mahomes stats are: 98 for 139, 1,253 yards, 12 TDs, and 2 INTs. All of which is good for a prodigious 122.1 Quarterback Rating. Not to mention Mahomes’ 9-3 SU and 12-1 ATS dog log in his NFL career. . The AFC Championship will be Patrick Mahomes’ 17th playoff game. With it, he has almost an entire regular season’s worth of experience. At 28, he has played in nearly as many playoff games (16) as Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Brock Purdy combined (17). He is also 13-3 in his postseason career, including 4-0 SUATS versus .777 or greater foes and 4-0 SUATS against teams with an equal or better record. Meanwhile, Jackson is 1-3 SU in his career against the Chiefs and 0-3 SUATS in the postseason, coming off a win of 24 or fewer points. And then there is Andy Reid and his 3-0 SUATS record in head-to-head games with John Harbaugh when Kansas City enters off a pair of outright wins, scoring 33-plus points in each contest.

Divisional Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Interestingly, of the eight teams arriving in this round of the playoffs, four of them rank in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. The Bills and the Chiefs are two of them. It’s our educated guess that two of the four defensively staunch squads will be meeting in Super Bowl LVIII, with the Chiefs looking to repeat. Patrick Mahomes is 2-0 in the postseason against Josh Allen – both wins coming at Arrowhead – but this will mark the first road playoff game in his career. So, how will he and the Chiefs respond against the hottest team in the league? That’s the question. What we know for sure is the Mahomes is also 11-1 ATS in his NFL career as an underdog, winning eight of the games outright. Head coach Andy Reid has a 7-4 ATS career mark as a playoff dog, and a 9-4 SUATS career mark in postseason games between the 3s (+3 to -3). The points are tempting for a team that owns the best ‘In the Stats’ record (13-4) at this stage of the playoffs.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lions scored TDs on all three of its visits to the Red Zone last Sunday, while all three of the Rams’ trips to the Red Zone resulted in field goals. In the process, QB Jared Goff set a Detroit record for completion percentage in a game. Meanwhile, the Bucs jumped all over a deflated Philadelphia squad that flatlined, going 0-for-11 on 3rd and 4th down conversions to finish the season 1-6 following a scintillating 10-1 start. In the meantime, Tampa finished its campaign on a roll, currently riding a 6-1 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) skein. Between the Lions likely partying like it was 1999, and the surging Bucs on a free roll and playing with house money, look for Divisional Round dogs off back-to-back wins to improve to 6-1 ATS of late.

Rating: 2 Units

Teams advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, coming off a Wild Card win as an underdog, are just 13-50 SU and 35-38 ATS overall. Worse, if these same teams won 5 or fewer games the previous season, they fall to 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS. Enter the team favored to win this year’s Super Bowl, the 49ers. With it, Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan brings a 4-0 ATS career mark into this contest as a playoff favorite by an average win margin of 15 points per game. In addition, the Niners are winning the stats on an average of 95 net yards per game this season, tops in the league. And it certainly doesn’t hurt knowing that San Francisco is 21-3 SU and 19-5 ATS since last season in games where they won the yardage battle. Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in the playoffs when coming off consecutive SUATS wins – with the last as a dog. 

Rating: 2 Units

Teams advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, coming off a Wild Card win as an underdog, are just 13-50 SU and 25-38 ATS overall. Worse, these same teams who won 5 or fewer games the previous season fall to 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS. Meanwhile, Divisional Round hosts with a week of rest coming off a loss are 13-1 outright but only 1-8 ATS the last nine games. We temper that with John Harbaugh’s 9-3 ATS ledger in his last dozen playoff games. And don’t forget the Black Birds’ 3-0 SUATS mark this season in games when coming off a loss by an average score of 29-13. After being bounced in the first round of the playoffs in three of its previous four appearances, look for Harbaugh to improve on his 35-5-2 ATS career mark in games the Ravens win outright as a favorite against winning foes. Finally, playing against any NFL Divisional Round away team coming off a SU home underdog win of 5 or more points if they won 5 or fewer games last season is 10-1 ATS.

Wild Card Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Ironically, the only career road playoff game for QB Jalen Hurts was two years ago in a loss to Tampa Bay, where the Eagles return to the scene of the crime. In his career playoff starts, Hurts owns a 2-2 record, with 4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and an 84.7 passer rating. Lately, though, he’s been a similar mess with an 82.9 QB Rating the past four games while tossing 4 TDs and 5 INTS. And that’s critical, considering that the average turnover during the regular season is worth 4.3 points. In the playoffs, it jumps to 4.7 points. On the flip side, Baker Mayfield’s career was on life support in 2022 before his bounce-back season with the Bucs. The former No. 1 pick struggled down the stretch, but he had his best statistical season to help Tampa Bay claim the NFC South title for a third straight year. Given the success of home dogs in the Wild Card round and the fact that playing on any NFL home dog in the Wild Card Round if they are playing with same-season revenge is 9-1 ATS, so we’ll take whatever they offer up

Rating: 2 Units

Allen is among the NFL’s most prolific quarterbacks when he’s rolling, as he sports a 105.6 QB Rating in the streak. He also owns 17 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, a 99.6 passer rating, and 2 rushing TDs in the post season. Pittsburgh counters with mighty Mason Rudolph, whose 3-0 SUATS mark as a starter to end the season pushed his NFL career record to 8-4-1 SU and 8-3-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS against foes coming off back-to-back wins. This will mark Rudolph’s postseason debut. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin enters 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS away in the playoffs. He’s also 0-3 ATS away in Game One of playoffs. Superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt led the league in sacks for the third time with 19 sacks, the most in NFL history, but he’s out with an injury he suffered in the season finale. That’s not good news, considering the Steelers are 69-33-2 with Watt; 1-10 without him. 

Rating: 2 Units

Dan Campbell is a candidate for Coach of the Year, he is an excellent motivator and his team plays hard for him, but in a playoff spot I'll take the coach who is better at creating a gameplan. The Lions were favored to win the NFC North, they did exactly what was expected of them, while the Rams were left for dead and significantly overachieved. Sean McVay will have an offensive attack that the Lions will not be prepared for. McVay turned Kyren Williams into one of the best running backs in the league, and made Puka Nacua look like he should have been a top 20 pick instead of a fifth-rounder. The Lions are 27th in the NFL in passing defense, while the Rams are 10th in passing yards per game. Stafford will not disappoint in his return to Detroit, and will cut up this Lions' pass defense with Nacua and Kupp. The Rams' passing defense is stronger than Detroit's, as they rank 20th in passing defense and will have the better chances to get stops. The Lions like their dome, but they do not have the strongest home field advantage, they lost to the Seahawks and Packers at home this season. In the Playoffs, games can be decided by the slimmest of margins, and I will take the coaching advantage, and the Rams' passing attack against the weak Lions' secondary as the key difference makers.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s put up or shut up time for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys today. That’s because in six career playoff starts, he enters with a 2-4 record, including the last two seasons which ended in heartbreaking playoff losses against the 49ers. Don’t expect a walk in the park today, either. Not from a team that was 2-5 ATS against fellow playoff teams this season, while being outgained an average -23 net yards per game along the way. It all adds up to a 4-12 SUATS ledger in the playoffs for Dallas since 1997. To get over the hurdle, the ‘Boys will have to overcome a Green Bay squad on a roll, playing its best football of the season behind QB Jordan Love in his first year at the helm as the team improved as the season wore on. In fact, over the final eight games of the campaign Love posted an 18-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With it, the Packers check in 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in the playoffs when entering with a sub .700-win percentage. Tie it into Green Bay’s 4-0 SUATS record of late in this series, while also playing with a major chip on its shoulder after not having a player on the roster voted to the Pro Bowl squad.

Rating: 2 Units

This will mark QB Tua Tagovailoa’s playoff debut (backup QB Skylar Thompson was behind center for injured Tua in last year’s 34-31 playoff loss here last season). Complicating matters, 20 players appeared on Miami’s initial injury report, forcing them to sign five players to fill out the roster. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have had problems of their own against other playoff squads this season, going 1-4 SUATS. However, we note that NFL defending Super Bowl champions are 21-8 SU and 16-12-1 ATS at home the following playoff season, including 2-0 SUATS against foes arriving off a loss by an average score of 35-15. Ironically, both squads rank in the Top 10 on offense and defense and each is a league-best 13-5 ‘In The Stats’ this season.  

Rating: 3 Units

Harbaugh owns a weak 11-21-1 ATS career mark against undefeated foes, including 4-13 SU and 5-12 ATS when not favored by 5 or more points. And for what it’s worth, this will be his first test against an undefeated opponent in the postseason. Then there is the infamous “Bama bounce” that occurs when a team beats the Tide by a touchdown (7 points) or more, as they are just 20-30 ATS as chalk the following game. Note that undefeated teams who beat a Nick Saban coached Alabama squad are 3-11 ATS the following game, including 0-6 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points when facing a foe coming off an ATS win. Meanwhile, DeBoer stands 8-1 ATS as a dog, including 5-0 SUATS with the Huskies and 4-0 SUATS versus .888 or greater foes. He is also 6-1 SU versus undefeated foes, including 1-0 SUATS as a dog. (Beat UCLA, 40-37 as an 11-point dog). 

Rating: 3 Units

For openers, it’s appearing more and more that QB Justin Fields will be the Bears’ quarterback of the future. Over the past nine starts, Fields owns an 87.5 QB Rating with 1,838 yards, 13 TDs, and 5 INTs, not to mention 521 rushing yards, which is attributed to Chicago’s No. 2 Ranked Rush Offense (trailing only the Ravens) in the last three games. The Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has been reduced to 1-3 ATS as a favorite since Aaron Rodgers bolted for the Big Apple. Finally, Green Bay is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in season finales for the last six years.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Rams will be handing the ball to Carson Wentz, who at first glance is just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in his last ten starts. But he is also 7-5 SUATS in his career with teams riding a three game win streak, including 3-0 SUATS in division games. The Rams are 9-0 ATS as a division road dog, as well as 5-1 ATS in its last six division road contests. Flipping the script, the Niners enter with nothing to gain as they have the No. 1 seed throughout the NFC playoffs and figure to be resting starters for an extended period of time, with star RB Christian McCaffrey and QB Brock Purdy already nailed to the pines and QB Sam Darnold slated to start. Finally, playing on any NFL .500 or greater division road dog with triple revenge is 48-24-2 ATS since 1981 Better yet, bring them in off a win and they improve to 35-13-2, while going 19-5-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins, including 12-1 ATS since 1998.

Rating: 2 Units

The bottom line here is the heat is on the Jags, and to their detriment they are 2-17 SU and 7-12 ATS away in their final game of the season in their franchise history, including 0-11 SU in games with the Over/Under total of fewer than 43 points. It doesn’t help with the fact that Tennessee is playing with a triple revenge chip on their shoulder, especially given Tennessee’s 4-1 SUATS record in its last five games in this role. In addition, the Titans are 6-1 ATS when coming off a division road contest. Finally, Jacksonville is 2-9 ATS on the road against .400 or fewer foes, we call for the upset! 

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Baltimore is 6-2 outright against the eight teams seeded No. 1-7 in the current NFL playoff picture, winning the games with a +125-point differential. In fact, their only two losses were by 2 points against Cleveland and 3 points in an overtime loss to Indianapolis. The Steelers can make the playoffs with a win today and a loss by either Buffalo or Jacksonville, along with four other Wild Card possibilities. However, Baltimore’s 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS ledger at home in games coming off a win of 35-plus points – including 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS versus sub .600 foes – Finally, Baltimore is 12-3 SU and 13-1-1 ATS as a home dog in this series when the Steelers sport a winning record.

Rating: 3 Units

Alabama is 20-3-1 ATS as a dog versus an undefeated team and the SEC champ is 17-4 SU and 15-6 ATS in a bowl and that includes 6-0 ATS vs a perfect team. Nick Saban is also 9-2 SUATS against the conference he used to coach in, the B1G. The Tide will be the most complete team the Wolverines have faced, with Jalen Milroe being the most dynamic QB UM has seen. Michigan has been useless in bowls lately going 0-6 SUATS in the last six. 

Rating: 2 Units

It hardly seems possible, but taking the field in this bowl is the worst offense in the entire nation, namely the 10-win Hawkeyes of Iowa, who have been outgained in 10-of-13 games this season, while ranking 110th & 130th in rushing & passing. Right, a defense that has held 6 of its last 7 opponents to

Bowl Game of the Year

Rating: 5 Units

Liberty has averaged out-yarding teams +166 per game, and while we admit Oregon is a leap above in class for LU, the Flames are also 6-0 ATS vs foes coming off a SUATS loss as a favorite and a healthy 17-4 ATS off a win when facing a .500 or better opponent. Pac 12 Bowling Teams are 6-21 SU and 2-25 ATS vs teams coming off a win. Liberty Coach Jamey Chadwell brought his winning ways from Coastal Carolina, he’s 44-11 SU when his team has the better record, including 12-0 at Liberty. Not sold yet on the former conference and national title contender being unable to cover? Then consider that Pac-12 teams are 2-13 SU and 0-15 ATS since 2016 when coming off a SUATS loss with the only outright wins by 1 and 2 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Wisconsin is 6-2 ATS as a +6 or greater underdog and LSU bench boss Cajun Brian Kelly is 1-7 ATS as a bowl favorite of 7 or greater. Wisconsin holds one big card, a 10-2 ATS mark as a DD underdog against a sub .800 opponent. The sense here is LSU will be punching down and not making much contact. Finally, playing against any college bowl double digit favorite coming off 3 ATS wins and a SU win if they are facing an opponent who gains 110 or more RYPG is 11-0 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota is just 1-4 in its last five games, but to their credit, the four losses have come by a total of 12 points, and they won the stats in four of the five contests, and the Vikings also beat the Packers, 24-10, in Green Bay two months ago. However, with the Packers 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a division road dog, and 4-0 ATS when coming off a road win. They are also 23-12-1 ATS in their last 36 Sunday Night contests, including 11-2-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS loss. Minnesota’s 2-8 ATS mark in its last ten home games seals it. 

Rating: 3 Units

If the Saints lose either of their last two contests, they will be officially eliminated from postseason contention. There is no other scenario where New Orleans can win their division. In addition, under head coach Dennis Allen, the Saints also have an ugly 1-13 record against teams that are .500 or better at the time they play them. However, they will enter today’s game mathematically alive in the NFC South with a 5-0 ATS record when seeking triple revenge. On the flip side, the Bucs are 0-9 ATS in games before facing the Panthers, as well as 0-5-1 ATS at home off a home game. Finally, playing on  any sub .500 NFL road dog off a SUATS non-division loss if they are playing with triple revenge against a division opponent is 21-4 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s safe to say that QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown pulled the Eagles out of a rut in last week’s disapproving 33-25 win over the stubborn New York Giants. But at this stage of the season, it was a badly needed victory as it stopped the bleeding and kept Philly in the chase for the top spot in the NFC playoff seeding. Today, though, they’ll need to improve off a lousy 1-5 ATS mark of late against the NFC West and an 0-4 ATS current ATS losing record. With it, the Cardinals enter 10-0 ATS of late against the NFC East, as well as 8-1 ATS of late in this series. Until the Green Birds get their act back together, they are simply too risky to be laying double digits in a NY Giants division sandwich. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Jags are 1-10 ATS in their last eleven home games against NFC opposition, as well as 0-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 7 points. And we didn’t even mention Jack’s 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS mark as home chalk the past six seasons. Carolina enters with a 10-4 ATS ledger in its last fourteen games against the AFC South, as well as a 3-0 SUATS mark in this series. The Panthers sport the league’s No. 5 overall defense, as opposed to Jacksonville’s No. 25 overall defense, the points become the play in this overlay – especially with the fact that playing against any NFL home favorite who went from ‘worst to first’ in its division from one season to the next is 33-15 ATS.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Baltimore is just 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS laying points in its last 14 games when coming off a win as an underdog – including 1-9 ATS against foes with at least one win on the season and 0-8 ATS as a favorite of three or more points. That fits like a glove for the Dolphins and their 16-4 ATS mark as a non-division road dog of 5 or fewer points. With Miami 8-1 ATS as a dog after dressing up as a favorite, we’ll be on the take today. Finally, Baltimore is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite behind Lamar Jackson when coming off a SU underdog win.

NFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Cowboys currently sit one game behind both the Eagles and Lions and are looking to crash the party. They are also riding a 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS run at Jerry’s World, including a 5-0 ATS log when coming off a loss. Detroit enters 1-5 ATS away when coming off an away game, while the ‘Boys are 5-1 ATS against the NFC North. Better yet, the Cowboys are 12-6 ATS since 1990 at home in Last Home Games against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS with a .600 or greater win percentage. Finally, Dallas is 10-1 SUATS as a favorite in games when coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS against foes coming off a win

Rating: 2 Units

A pair of bowl entrants who've met in a brief home-&-home series ('10 & '12) with the Wyoming Cowboys & the Toledo Rockets exchanging exciting 20-15 & 34-31 road wins, as 4½-pt & 3-pt dogs. The transfer portal is relentless, with this game no exception, as Rocket QB Finn (2,657 PYs, 23/9, along with 563 PYs) jumped to the Big Ten, which obviously negates a great deal of UT's overwhelming aerial edge, although backup Gleason has appeared in all 13 games. The dog was 5-0-1 ATS in Wyoming's first 6 lined games this year, before the chalk took over, covering its last 5, including an 84-15 pt edge L2 games (+45 pts ATS), while Rockets have outgained all 13 foes.

Rating: 2 Units

Mr. Freeze needs a W so Auburn avoids the ignominy of three straight losing seasons, something that hasn’t happened on The Plains since 1975-77 and versus other quality opponents,  Auburn lost every matchup In The Stats, going 0-7 with a net average of -165 YPG. The Tigers are also 1-5 SUATS in their last six bowls, 0-4 ATS in bowls when coming off back-to-back losses, and 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in the last eight versus the Big 10. Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa will try to have a proper sendoff from the Terps before getting ready to join his brother in the National Football League. The Terps are 7-4 SUATS in their last 11 bowls, 7-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win and 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Tau leaves with a bushel full of UMD records, along with the Big 10 All-time passing yards record.

Rating: 2 Units

Big Ten bowl teams are 6-11 SU and 4-13 ATS versus the SEC when a three point or greater favorite. The Rebs are a wallet loving 12-4 SUATS in their last 16 bowl appearances and since 2017 any SEC dog is 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in a bowl tilt versus the Big 10. Attention seeker Lane Kiffin also loves being underestimated, going 4-1 SUATS as the dog in bowl affairs. Strangely they can’t handle being the bookies choice, Ole Miss is 0-2 as the favorite in their last two bowl favorite spots but are 5-0 SUATS as the bowl dog of three or greater.

Rating: 2 Units

There is a positive history of the Cyclones as a bowler, 3-1 ATS in bowl games when coming off a win, 7-0 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win and… yep, there’s more, 8-1 ATS as the favorite coming off an underdog role. This bowl is a home game for the Tigers, who have been mediocre in extra games, 2-5 SUATS in their last seven bowl shows and 0-8 ATS coming off a SUATS win.  The American Conference isn’t known for great successes when they hit the bowling lanes, going 8-17 ATS as bowlers coming off a double-digit win and 4-13 ATS as bowlers when scoring 44 or more in their last game.

Rating: 2 Units

The cold hard numbers favor the Irish, who are 4-0 SUATS vs Pac 12 teams off a SUATS loss and Irish Head Coach Marcus Freeman is 4-0 ATS after time off. The Pac 12 football conference is a poor 2-25 ATS in bowl games versus teams coming off a win and 0-15 ATS since 2016 when coming off a SUATS loss. 

Bowl Game Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Clemson is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 bowl games, but anytime the ACC matches muscles with the SEC, it tends not to go well. ACC teams are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in the last seven bowl games vs the Southeastern Conference. UK is 24-1 SU in their last 25 non-con games, plus 9-1 ATS when both teams are coming off non-conference games (Clemson beat South Carolina). Wildcats coach Mark Stoops, who apparently packed his bags and spent time on Zillow.com looking at College Station, Texas real estate before that all fell apart, will bring in a 16-4-1 ATS off a non-conference win if the foe is .667 or greater.  Finally, Bowl favorites off consecutive wins, the last one a revenge victory, are 1-8 ATS if they scored 16 points or fewer in the victory.

Rating: 2 Units

The Sooners are 5-0 SU in their last five games against Pac-12 foes, and 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS on neutral fields since 2020; also be aware that Big 12 bowl dogs are 12-4 ATS versus the Pac-12. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are playing in their first bowl game since 2017, thanks in large part to the mid-season emergence of QB Noah Fifita, who turned Arizona’s season around following that triple-overtime loss to USC back in September. Since that game, Jedd Fisch’s team has won six games in a row, as the second-year head coach saw his QB finish the campaign with 23 TD passes against just 5 picks. He closed out the regular season with a 527-yard, 5 TD performance against Arizona State. Unfortunately, Arizona is 1-8 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, and we’ll add the fact that the favorite is 2-7 ATS in this bowl game. Also, Pac-12 bowlers are 2-25 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Zona’s dream season skids to a grinding halt as they get run over by the Sooner Schooner today.

Rating: 2 Units

The Browns signed Riley Patterson, who was waived by the Detroit Lions on Dec. 19. For the Lions this year Patterson was 15-for-17 in fi eld goal attempts and 35-for-37 on extra point attempts. Jets’ signal caller Trevor Siemian became the 59th different quarterback to start a game this season when he led the Jets to a 30-28 victory over Washington despite a jaw dropping 14 penalties for 150 yards by the Flyboys. Given the Jets 0-5 ATS mark on Thursdays, and 3-9 ATS effort after hosting NFC foes, plus their 5-11 SUATS mark in games when coming off a win under Robert Saleh – along with Cleveland’s 6-1 ATS mark at home on Thursdays and its recent 5-0 SUATS mark in the Dawg Pound since their Bye week this season – we’ll be on the Browns tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

BC finished the season with losses to Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Miami after winning five straight contests mid-season. QB Thomas Castellanos is an exciting dual threat who tossed 15 TD passes and ran for 11 more but was intercepted 13 times. Be aware that ACC bowlers with the lesser record are 14-4 ATS when coming off back-to back losses, and those conference teams are 9-3 ATS versus foes off consecutive wins. The Eagles are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS as a bowl dog versus foes off a win of a TD or more, and half of BC’s six wins this season came as underdogs. After a big bounce-back from last year’s 3-9 campaign, a win for BC just down the road on the Mass Turnpike would do wonders in Chestnut Hill. Finally, SMU is 0-3 SUATS in their last 3 bowl games – all as a favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

This all went bad so quickly; remember that A&M had the highest-rated recruiting class in NCAA history in 2022. That was the year that Fisher had a very public dispute with Nick Saban when the Nicktator accused Jimbo of buying every player in that class. However, the Aggies have gone 12-12 since then and only 20 of the 32 recruits remain in College Station (who knows how many will start the season in 2024?). Regardless, Mike Elko will be the head coach next season, but for now, we can look at the sad sack numbers A&M produced against fellow bowl teams: 1-5 SU, 1-4-1 ATS, and 2-4 ITS (In The Stats) as they return to the bowl scene after a two-year hiatus. In addition, Tammy has been 2-8 ATS coming off a SUATS loss versus a foe off SUATS loss, along with 2-7 ATS in bowl games against foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Cowboys got things back on track after a lackluster 2-2 start this season, as QB Alan Bowman had a solid season and RB Ollie Gordon II rode a couple of 250+ yard performances to the Doak Walker Award, awarded to the nation’s best running back. Gordon went over the 100-yard threshold in eight games this season and his 20 TDs was second only to Blake Corum. Okie State is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games in this series, plus 4-2 ATS in their last six tries as a bowl dog. Mike Gundy is 10-6 ATS as a dog with the better record, and with all the disarray surrounding the Aggies, it’s the Cowboys turn today.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a reputation to live up to, when participating in this bowl, as high scoring barnburners have always been the rule, beginning with '79's 38-37 Indiana (+9½) win over BYU, up to LY's 28-27 Oregon (-13) 28-27 win over North Carolina (Bo Nix TD pass in L0:19). Can this one live up to such a history? Well, for the Trojans of Southern California, this marks their 4th spot in this bowl since '14: 45-42 (-7), 21-23 (-3), & 24-49 (-2). Not the best, especially now, when losing Heisman winner QB Williams & stellar WR Rice, especially with a "D" that ranks 118th & 121st in total & scoring. The 26th bowl for 15th-ranked Cardinals of Louisville, who've topped 30 pts 8 times TY. Thus, floodgates should open early & often vs paper SC "D".  USC was 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS against fellow bowlers this season and shockingly, Pac-12 bowlers are 0-15 ATS since 2016 when coming off a SUATS loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Tulane assistant head coach and OC Slade Nagle will take the reins for the Green Wave in this game, with four assistants still in tow. Nagle is on the record as saying that the goal is to finish 12-2 and end up in the Top 25 for the second straight year. The last time they accomplished that feat was in 1939. The AAC Player of the Year, QB Michael Pratt will lead a team that is 23-4 the past two seasons and they’ve been a dog four times in that span, winning three times outright. Bowl teams who won 10 or more games in the previous season are 19-5 ATS when coming off a season-ending loss as a favorite and taking on a foe coming off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, it is not often that you can find a .500 team favored by a TD over an .800-or-better opponent, much less in a bowl game. In fact, this is the first time it has happened since at least 1980. Second-year HC Brent Pry improved the attack in Blacksburg this season, and the Hokies are coming off a satisfying 55-17 drubbing of their cross-state rivals at Virginia. However, Tech is 1-10 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite, and ACC bowlers coming off a victory are just 3-14 ATS against foes coming off a SU favorite loss. we feel that Tulane may just have too many weapons here today.

Rating: 2 Units

With this just their 4th bowl game since 1994, (2-1 SUATS) the Rebs are running sky high under first-year head coach Barry Odom after recording their first winning season in a decade. Remember this team was the best point spread team in the nation prior to the Mountain West championship game loss. Odom is 4-0 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points when his record is .666 or better; also keep in mind that UNLV was 4-2 ATS this season versus fellow bowlers this season and overall is 8-1 ATS as double-digit dog versus a foe coming off a win. Although Jayden Maiava led the Rebel offense with his dual threats at QB, WR Ricky White was probably the best player on the team, catching 81 passes for nearly 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns.

Rating: 2 Units

Freshman AJ Padgett will start at QB for Rice and will try to connect with WR Luke McCaffrey like he did in the season-finale, as Christian’s little brother caught 12 passes for 141 yards in the bowl-clinching win over FAU. The favorite in this bowl game is 8-2-1 ATS, and the Owls are 7-1 ATS in their last seven games as a dog of 13 or fewer points. In addition, AAC bowlers are 4-2 SUATS versus Sun Belt foes.  In the final analysis, we’ll back the team that’s been there and done that with a head coach who is 9-6 ATS with Rice as a single-digit dog.

Rating: 2 Units

This bowl appearance has a major revenge chip for the Gophers, who lost to Bowling Green two years ago as a -30.5-home favorite and in addition, Minny is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last bowl games. Also, sub-.550 Big Ten bowlers off consecutive SUATS losses are 7-1-1 ATS and sub-.500 bowlers are 8-4 SUATS versus greater than-.555 foes. Meanwhile, the Bee Gees make a quick turn-around, returning to the Quick Lane Bowl where they fell, 24-19, to New Mexico State last year. The Falcons are just 2-8 ATS in bowl games since 1992 (0-6 ATS if coming off win). Bowling Green is also 0-5 ATS with rest when coming off a win, and MAC bowlers are 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS versus the Big Ten. 

Rating: 5 Units

Baltimore is 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS away on Mondays, including 4-0-1 ATS as a dog. Better yet, star QB Lamar Jackson is 18-1 SU in his career against NFC opposition. The Black Birds are also 11-2 ATS against .700 or great foes. And speaking of superstars, for the 37th time in his NFL career, Jackson led his team in both rushing and passing yards in the same game in last week’s 23-7 win versus Jacksonville. On the other side of the coin, Niners’ RB Christian McCaffrey is the only NFL player all-time with 1,000 rushing and receiving yards in the same season – and he still has three games to go. Like Baltimore, San Francisco is 7-1 ATS against .700 or better opponents. Ravens’ head coach John Harbaugh brings an exceptional 80-53-9 ATS career mark as a visitor, while 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS at home in his career when the Niners sport a .750 or greater win percentage. In a battle of the league’s best, we’ll grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Chiefs are one of only five teams in the league that sport both a Top 10 offense and a Top 10 defense, which should not have a problem against Las Vegas’ 28th-ranked offense. We realize they are only 0-3 ATS coming off their previous three wins this season, and the Raiders are the second foe in a row that will take on the Chiefs with a rest advantage, but when coming off a win of late Andy Reid is 15-1 SU in his last sixteen division games when coming off one win and 71-28 ATS in games he wins outright as a favorite against foes arriving off a win. Finally NFL teams 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS since 1989 in games after scoring 60-plus points in their last game.

Rating: 2 Units

Carolina is 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS lately when coming off a win. They are also 1-4 ATS against the NFC North. The Packers enter this fray as the No. 11 overall seed in the current NFC Playoff Picture and should be fully focused here. With head coach Matt LaFleur 16-9 ATS in his career when coming off a loss, including 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS from game Eight out.

Rating: 2 Units

The team that can least likely afford a loss is the 7-7 Vikings, as no less than four other seven-win teams are in pursuit. Much like the Cleveland Browns, Minnesota is operating on their fourth starting quarterback this season – yet they still remain in playoff contention. A tip of the hat to head coach Kevin O’Connell as it’s been a nice year for the coaching Kevin’s this campaign. With Minnesota sporting a 6-0 ATS log as division home dogs, as well as 13-2 ATS as a dog off a loss when facing a foe coming off a win as a favorite, the points become the play in this division fray today.

Rating: 3 Units

The pressure mounts on a Seahawks’ squad that has now been outgained in each of their last four games as they bring along a phony sense of accomplishment. Given Seattle’s 0-5 outright record in road games this season since its Bye Week, and Tennessee’s 6-1 ATS mark in this series, look for the Titans to improve on its 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS at home off a loss under Mike Vrabel, including 4-0 SUATS this season. And look for Seattle to get a taste of reality today, especially with Ryan Tannehill rumored to be behind center for the Titans today.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills have won two straight games and three of their last four overall. They are playing well offensively, scoring at least 30 points in three of those games. They have a balanced offense and they’re in the top 10 in passing and running the ball. James Cook has been playing out of his mind right now and with Allen's ability to run, the Bills are tough to stop. The Chargers aren’t very good at defending the run and their pass defense is the third-worst in the league, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bills in this game. The Chargers have lost two straight games and three straight home games. They have struggled offensively and didn’t score more than 20 points in four of their last five games. They don’t run the ball well, but they have the 10th-best passing attack in the league. With Justin Herbert out and Easton Stick under center, their passing game hasn’t been as good. The Bills have played well against the run and they held their last three opponents under 200 passing yards per game. They are one of the best in the league when it comes to getting after the quarterback and they force a lot of turnovers, so expect them to keep Los Angeles’ offense in check. Go with Buffalo to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

This appearance has to be a major letdown for the Utes, who were at this time last year coming off their second consecutive Pac-12 Championship and were on the heels of back-to-back Rose Bowl games (against Penn State and Ohio State). This was basically a lost season for Kyle Whittingham after an injury to star QB Cam Rising kept him out for the entire campaign. The Utes are 0-4 SU in their last four bowl games and overall, are just 1-3 SUATS in their last four matchups versus Big Ten opponents. The soon-to-be-disbanded Pac-12 has not been successful in bowls either, going 6-21 SU and 2-25 ATS versus foes coming off win.  Finally, Big Ten teams coming off a win are 14-0 ATS in bowl games versus Pac-12 opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

Their bags are packed, & they're ready to go, but they won't need a plane, as the Jaguars of South Alabama lace 'em up on their home field for their meeting with the Eagles of Eastern Michigan in this bowl matchup. By knocking off Oklahoma St in their 3rd game, big things were expected from the Jags. But it wasn't to be, although they did post 55, 55, & 44 pts over the course of the season, with all but 1 of their 6 wins coming by 18 or more pts SU (21-14 win over Arkansas St). Eagles have been a profitable outfit since '16, although seemingly with smoke & mirrors, ranking 131st in total "O", while outgaining just one team: Akron. DD bowl spot can't scare us off.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Both the Texans and Colts have tiebreakers over Pittsburgh, after beating the Steelers earlier this season. This means that the Steelers will have to finish with a better record than both squads – which means winning out is mandatory for Tomlin’s troops. Tomlin can also lean on his 11-7 SU mark in games against .550 or greater foes in which Pittsburgh is riding a 3-game losing streak, including 5-0 SUATS the last five games in the Steel City. Meanwhile, the Bengals lug a 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS mark in Saturday road games into the fray, including 0-5 SUATS against foes coming off back-to-back losses – which ties nicely into the Steelers’ 4-0 SUATS ledger as a host on regular season Saturdays. And finally, Pittsburgh head coach Tomlin is 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at home in games when the Steelers sport a .500 exact win percentage, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog

Rating: 2 Units

The Trojans own a big edge in recent ATS history, going 14-3 SU and 15-2 ATS vs. fellow bowlers the last two seasons, and if they boast the better record going in, they’re 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS since 2019. Yes, Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six bowl games but things were quite a bit more stable with the coaches and players during those contests. A more revealing stat is the Blue Devils’ paltry 3-16 SU and 6-13 ATS mark in their last 19 meetings with .666 opposition. And while Troy coach Sumrall may be on the way out, this team compiled a formidable 23-4 SU and 19-6 ATS record under his direction. With the favorite in this bowl cashing 8 tickets in the last 10 game, we’re all in with the Trojans.

Rating: 2 Units

Northern Illinois is 12-2 ATS coming off a double-digit ATS loss, including 10-0 ATS as a dog. They’ve also posted a 3-1 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) record against fellow bowlers this season. Arkansas State managed one win in its final three games to qualify for a trip to the alleys, but we don’t think it will be a memorable one, especially with the Red Wolves on a 0-3 SUATS slide versus MAC opponents. Taking it a step further, we see that MAC teams are 14-8-1 ATS in all bowl games against Sun Belt foes while SB teams are just 5-11-1 ATS in bowl games against MAC foes coming off a win. 

Rating: 3 Units

Saints mentor Dennis Allen is 6-15 SU and 4-15-2 ATS in games when his team is coming off a win, including 1-7-1 ATS coming off a double-digit win. On the other side of the field, L.A.’s Sean McVay has taken care of business in games against NFC South foes, going 10-5 SU and 9-5-1 ATS. The home team in this series, is a stellar 8-0 SUATS, and Allen is 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in his career in games when coming off consecutive ATS wins. Finally, any NFL away teams from Game 15 out, coming off three consecutive home games – the last two outright wins – are 7-21 ATS, including 1-8 SUATS as a dog of 4-plus points.

Rating: 2 Units

Marshall is the worst bowl team in net turnovers this season (-1.08) but there is so much else to like: the Herd is 13-5 SUATS in FBS bowl games, including 2-0 SUATS with a .500 record, and 12-1 SUATS vs. sub .750 opponents (7-0 SUATS last seven games). Third-year Marshall head coach Charles Huff stands 3-1 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points, plus CUSA bowlers like the Roadrunners are a weak 2-8 SUATS off a double-digit loss (fell to Tulane 29-16 in final regular season game). The way we see it is if the Herd don’t gift-wrap a spate of unnecessary turnovers, look for UTSA to continue its disappointing run.

Rating: 2 Units

The Eagles have been out yarded in each of their last six games by an average -105 net yards per game. It makes it extremely hard to wrap your arms around them at this point, let alone have to do so after taking on Murder’s Row – the Cowboys, 49ers, Bills, and Chiefs – in their last four games. They are 0-8 ATS when coming off a double-digit SUATS loss and 1-6 ATS in this series. With the Seahawks’ backs to the playoff wall as the current No. 9 seed in the NFC, we strongly suggest you look at the fact that playing against the defending Super Bowl loser as an away favorite (or pick) in non-division games is 45-65--5 ATS since 1981. Worse, if they take the field sporting a .700 or greater win percentage they fall to 10-26-3 ATS, including 6-20-2-2 ATS when squaring off against .333 or greater opponents.  Additionally, Seattle is 16-1 ATS when coming off consecutive losses as a dog, including 12-0 ATS the last 12 games.

Rating: 2 Units

Western Kentucky is bowling for the fifth year in a row under fifth-year head Tyson Helton, but our concern is this unit allows 27 more yards per game than it gains, thanks to a dismal 2-5 SUATS and ITS log against fellow bowl teams. In a similar vein, we’re wondering how an ODU team with a losing record can be favored over an 7-5 squad when they allow more yards and points than they score. The Hilltoppers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in this series – and favored in all seven games. But, and it’s a big but, Western Kentucky is 0-4-1 ATS in bowl games versus sub .600 opponents. Suddenly the Monarchs’ 9-3 SU and 10-1 ATS skein as .500 bowlers playing with revenge since 2000 comes into play. We’re expecting a close one, though, as all 6 of Old Dominion’s wins this season were by one-score or less, by 23 total points. Until ODU proves they are worthy of laying points in this series, we’ll stay on the take.

Rating: 2 Units

The Ravens have a 10-3 record and currently hold down the top seed in the AFC playoff race. But we’ve seen this before, every time the MVP chatter gets louder, Jackson loses his voice (and votes). With it, Baltimore enters this Prime-Time special just 1-7 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins. The Ravens also have a much bigger game on tap when they travel to San Francisco next Monday night. Meanwhile, the Jags will take the field knowing they are 6-2 SUATS in their last eight home dog roles, while head coach Doug Pederson is 15-9 ATS in his career as a dog against .750 or greater foes, including 6-2 ATS at home.

Rating; 2 Units

A huge game for the suddenly hot Rams (3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS since their Bye week), with little on the line for the visiting Commandeers, who are coming off their Bye week on a 0-3 SUATS losing skid. Normally, we’d start making cases for the “value” in a matchup like this but not today. Not with Washington a wimpy 3-12 ATS when coming off a Bye week, and the Rams riding a 14-4 winning ATS run in December since 2021. Tie it into Sean McVay’s 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS mark as a favorite of late against teams he polished off in a most recent meeting, and you know where we’ll be. 

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Niners are off a fifth consecutive win following the Bye with a potential Super Bowl pairing up next week when they host the rugged Ravens. They enter 0-4 ATS as double-digit road chalk since 2012 and 7-12 SUATS of late in this series. Meanwhile, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS as a favorite in this series when Arizona sports a sub .250-win percentage. Finally, Arizona is 8-1 ATS as a home dog of +9 or more points when hosting .750 or greater opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

The Chiefs are 5-0 SUATS when coming off a home loss, while head coach Andy Reid stands 25-15 ATS in his career after a pair of setbacks, including 4-0 SUATS the last four games. On the other side of the fi eld, the Hoodie is 16-9 ATS at home when coming off a SU underdog win - but 0-3 SUATS the last three games. With one team fighting for playoff positioning, and the other a bad team off a surprise win, lay it.

Rating; 2 Units

The Injury Reaper can’t let go of the Browns, who cling to the No. 5 spot in the AFC Playoff Picture. They currently hold a 12 percent chance of winning the division over the Baltimore Ravens as they would need to go 3-1 to end the season while the Ravens go 1-3. While that seems unlikely, they have a game advantage over the rest of the AFC Wild Card candidates. Their current savior is veteran QB Joe Flacco, who was picked up off the junk heap as QB4, who is only 4-18 SU in his last 22 NFL starts – but 1-1 with Cleveland. He’s also 9-5 ATS in his career against the NFC North. The good news for the Browns is their 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS record under Kevin Stefanski against NFC opposition, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as favorites of more than three points. With Da Bears riding a 1-9 SUATS skein in games when coming off a double digit ATS win, give the points.

Rating; 2 Units

Denver is now 7-6 and on the come, while Kansas City is 8-5 and sliding backward. With it, the Broncos’ squad has allowed just 16 points per game over the last eight. Which means the AFC West has tightened up. Flipping the script, Detroit is looking more and more like Kansas City of late, as the Lions have dropped two of their last three contests and are having difficulty retaining momentum as they opened the door for the Vikings and Packers. Given the Wild Horses’ 3-0-1 ATS log on the road off a road contest, we’re looking to continue riding the team that is hot against the one that is not. Finally, Denver is 6-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back underdog roles.

Rating: 2 Units

What we’re likely overlooking is the success the Pac-12 had in games outside the conference this season. It was almost as though they wanted to put on a show as they went 29-7 SU and 19-9-1 ATS, including 9-1-1 ATS away from home. The UCLA Bruins were 3-0 outright in these games, matching Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, and Washington. However, postseason play has been less impressive, with Pac-12 bowlers just 2-25 ATS versus foes coming off win, as well as 0-15 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss. The Bruins have gone 0-3 SUATS in their last three bowl games while Boise State has logged a 7-3 ATS effort in its last 10 bowls. The Broncos are also on a mini run under interim head coach Spencer Danielson, winning three straight including a 44-20 whipping of UNLV in the MWC Championship game. The bottom line is Boise went 7-2 ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowlers this season and the Broncos are conference champions taking points from a non-champion. 

Rating: 3 Units

Defensive stud TJ Watt has been cleared from concussion protocol. How much does it matter, you ask? Plenty, considering the Steelers are 1-10 in games without the sack-master. Remember, the Burghers are 8-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss, and 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. Finally, the Colts are 2-17 SU in this series since 1985 – including 0-3 SUATS the last three times they saddled up as chalk.

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Miami has the look of a dog that you like to see, going 64-44-2 ATS when taking points under head coach Chuck Martin, including 8-2 ATS when playing with rest, and 4-0 ATS in bowl games. Both teams closed strong down the stretch with the RedHawks riding a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS finish while Appalachian State went 5-0 U and 4-1 ATS before suffering a 49-23 loss to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship game. However, Miami won the MAC title against Toledo, getting revenge against a Rockets team that handed the ‘Hawks one of their two losses this campaign. Although they have had their way against the MAC since joining the FBS, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, the Mountaineers have struggled laying points of late and it looks like they are laying them to the wrong foe at the wrong time, as evidenced by their 7-13 SU and 8-12 ATS mark versus .846 or greater opposition, including 2-8 ATS as chalk. ASU is also staring down the barrel of a 2-6 SU and 0-7-1 ATS disaster in its last eight tries as chalk versus a foe with a better record. A call to FEMA could be in order when we get a look at Miami’s superior stats: 6-0 ATS in bowl games since 2019, 10-1 ATS as a dog after being a dog, and 4-1 ATS as pups this season with three wins coming outright. We love bowl dogs who won a conference championship game when taking on non-champions, especially when the opponent’s defense gets ripped for 5.1 Yards Per Rush. And considering the last four Cure Bowl favs went 0-4 ATS. Finally Miami head coach Chuck Martin is 6-0 ATS as a dog on a neutral field.

Rating: 2 Units

Gamecocks head coach Rich Rodriguez brings a wealth of experience – 16 years to be exact – but he’s tapped out in his career when it comes to bowls, checking in at 2-9 ATS, including 1-7 ATS when favored. Rich Rod also has an aversion to bouncing back after getting tripped up as a favorite in his previous game, just 3-10 ATS, including 0-5 ATS laying points. The big pressure is on ULL’s Michael Desormeaux, who needs a win to avoid a second straight 6-7 season with the Cajuns and believe us, after the natives were treated to a 34-5 SU run in the previous three seasons before MD’s arrival, they’re damn sure getting restless.

Rating: 2 Units

Ohio will need to rely on a defense that ranked No. 4 overall in the land, one that surrendered more than 23 points only once. As for the offense, well… the offense turned the ball over 26 times this season and they were 0-5 when they failed to gain 400 yards this year. Recent ATS results stand in the Bobcats’ corner: Georgia Southern is 0-11 ATS away off an away game and 2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS and 5-9 ITS versus bowl teams the last two years while Ohio is 6-0 ATS when coming off a road win and 7-2 ATS in their last nine bowl games. With MAC teams now 14-8-1 ATS in bowls games versus Sun Belt foes, we say back the Bobcats

Rating: 3 Units

Packers enter just 8-6 SU and 6-8 ATS under head coach Matt LaFleur against opponents coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-5 ATS versus sub .500 foes. They are also a non-division favorite coming off three uninterrupted underdog upset wins in a row, a role in which teams in the NFL are just 6-20-2 ATS since 1980. With that, and despite the fact they are averaging just 231 YPG in their last five contests, we expect Big Blue to rise to the occasion tonight. The G-Men take the field this evening sporting an 11-4 ATS record on Monday Nights in games where they sport a .333 or fewer win percentage when battling .500 or fewer opponents, including 8-0 ATS in anything other than a season-opening game. And while Jordan Love is enduring himself to Packer backers, New York fill-in QB Tommy Devito has become the first undrafted QB in rookie season to have back-to-back QB Rating of 100 or more. He’s also one of only two NFL backup QBs this season with a winning record (Gardner Minshew). Best of all, playing against any NFL team coming off three consecutive outright underdog wins if they are facing a non-division foe is 20-6-2 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami brings along a glossy 6-0 ATS mark in matchups in which the Fish were favored in their last game against foes that were taking points the previous week and a 6-0 ATS ledger laying points after laying them the previous game.  Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in their last six games against the AFC East and 3-13-1 ATS in non-division games when coming off a divisional home contest, including 1-10-1 ATS before Game Fourteen of the season. Miami is chewing up and spitting out losing opponents behind head coach Mike McDaniel (15-3 SU and 13-4-1 ATS –including 9-0 SUATS the last nine games), and Tennessee just 1-5 SUATS away in its previous six Monday nighters against .666 or greater opposition, we can only look one way here.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Philadelphia isn’t currently scheduled to face another squad with a winning record for the remainder of the regular season. That should be good news considering the fact the Eagles are 9-4 SUATS in this series in games in which they own a .750 or greater win percentage, including 5-0 ATS when Dallas enters off a win. Take the points with the better team coming off an embarrassing loss, and if you’re uncomfortable, consider that the Eagles are 16-6 SU and 14-7-1 ATS versus winning foes during the regular season behind QB Jalen Hurts, including 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS the last fifteen games

NFL Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Seahawks bring artillery of their own into this battle with a jaw-dropping 24-8 SU and 25-6-1 ATS mark in games when coming off consecutive losses as a dog, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a win of 7 or more points. They are also 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS in this series before Game Fourteen of the season, including 7-0 ATS when the Niners enter off a SUATS win. However, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 9-1 SUATS in his career when coming off three losses, including 5-0 SUATS with the Seahawks, as well as 8-0 SUATS against foes coming off a win.

Rating: 3 Units

The Ravens went into their week of rest with a half-game lead for home-field advantage and the lone playoff bye but now trail Miami due to tiebreakers. That should get their attention today. Especially knowing they are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games in this series. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 3-0 since their Bye week, but find themselves facing the well-rested Ravens. It’s important given the fact the Rams are on 2-9 ATS against rested foes under Sean McVay, including a 0-7 ATS losing skid the last seven games (0-2 this season). And the Rams bring a hard-to-like 2-10 ATS log into this fray when coming off back-to-back SUATS wins.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta is ‘leaking oil’, having been outgained in its last three games. Sure, the Dirty Birds sport the better offense and the better defense, but they are 0-6 ATS when coming off a road win as a favorite and 2-9 ATS as home chalk of 4 or fewer points. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games and 7-2 SUATS in games off a win-no-cover, including 4-0 SUATS in division battles. With Baker Mayfield in a good rhythm with a 90.8 Passer Rating in his last five starts, the quarterback edge goes to Tampa. And with it, the points become the play today.

Rating; 2 Units

When the ground troops marched to a 20-17 overtime win in this rivalry last year, it moved the revenge-meter to 10-2 ATS in favor of the avenger the last dozen meetings in this series. In fact, Navy is 14-7-1 ATS since 1999 when looking to avenge a military loss, including 10-1-1 ATS as a dog of 16 or fewer points. But the bottom line is neither team holds much of an edge today, and with it we’ll rely on the old military standby – revenge – as Navy proves once again that it’s a dish best served cold. In the 124th installment of this service academy showdown, we suggest you grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Before Burrow suffered his season-ending wrist injury, the Bengals were Super Bowl contenders that had the lead in a primetime road game against the best team in the AFC. By the end of the afternoon on Sunday, the Bengals were out of the playoff hunt as Jake Browning became the 50th quarterback to start a game in the NFL this season. To no one’s surprise, the Bengals totaled 10 first downs in a 16-10 home loss to the Steelers last week. Behind the league’s worst rushing offense, Browning stands little to no chance. It doesn’t get any better tonight, not with Cincy 1-8 ATS on the Monday night road. On the opposite side of the coin, the Jaguars are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS as Monday Night favorites.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Kansas City totes an unacceptably weak rush defense into Lambeau that surrenders 4.6 Yards Per Rush. The Chiefs are also 2-9 ATS when coming off one win, including 1-5 ATS away. In addition, the Packers are 13-4 ATS as a dog of 3-plus points under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS versus .800 or fewer foes. Toss in QB Jordan Love’s 3-0 SUATS career mark at home against non-conference opposition, and finally Kansas City is 0-9 ATS as a favorite when both teams are coming off an ATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is 12-3 SU and 10-4-1 ATS against losing teams, including 7-0 SUATS in the last seven matchups. McDaniel is also 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a pair of losses. After opening the season 2-0, Washington has hit the skids, entering today’s fray as losers in 8 of its 10 games since. They are also 0-4 against better than .600 opposition this season. With that, look for Miami to improve on its 4-0 ATS record against foes coming off a Thursday contest, while the Commanders dip to 1-6 ATS in their last seven games hosting AFC foes, and 0-6 ATS in games when coming off a road loss.

Rating: 2 Units

QB Gardner Minshew has stepped in and has the Colts in playoff contention, riding a 3-0 SUATS heater entering this contest. He’ll need to overcome a watered-down dog log today, though, as the Stache is only 4-13 SU and 6-11 ATS against .333 or greater opponents in his NFL career starts, including 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS against those coming off a win. Complicating matters, star RB Jonathan Taylor is out after surgery on an injured thumb. The Titans enter the game at 12-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off an ATS win and 5-1 ATS in the last six games in this series. Meanwhile, the unlucky horseshoes are 1-5 ATS in their last six division road outings and 0-5 ATS in division games when both teams are coming off ATS wins

Rating: 3 Units

FSU brings a tattered 3-14 ATS mark into this contest against foes coming off a loss as a favorite, including 0-10 ATS as a favorite when the Seminoles are off a win. The Cardinals can thank their lucky stars for hiring former player Jeff Brohm as head coach, as he immediately turned U of L into a contender and guided them to this title game, Louisville’s first since joining the ACC. Brohm brings a 28-15-1 ATS career dog log into tonight’s battle, including 8-3 SU and 11-0 ATS when coming off a loss. With it, the Red Birds are 15-6 ATS as a dog coming off a defeat the last five years.

Rating: 3 Units

Harbaugh brings in an 18-23-2 ATS overall career record as a college football favorite of -20 or more points, including 2-7-1 ATS versus winning foes and 2-9-2 ATS against foes coming off a win. There’s no question Iowa fields one of the top defenses in the nation and Jimbo is just 8-12-1 ATS against defensively staunch .800 or greater foes who allow fewer than 12.5 PPG, including 1-5 ATS as a favorite of -18 or more points. Ferentz is 11-7 ATS as a dog of more than 14 points, including 4-0 ATS with a winning record and 8-0-1 ATS when playing with triple conference revenge. Michigan is hell bent to make it back to the CFB Playoff but with the Wolverines standing 8-15-1 ATS after battling the Buckeyes, will they have enough to get up and over this huge impost?

Rating: 3 Units

Nick Saban’s crew is 20-4 SU and 15-9 ATS versus undefeated foes (2-0 SUATS as a dog). Saban also owns some strong ATS results in today’s role, going 17-8-1 ATS as a dog with revenge, including 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points. Those numbers match up nicely with the fact that conference title favorites of 7 or fewer points against .900 or better opponents are 5-10-1 ATS, including 0-4 SUATS this decade. The Dawgs haven’t beaten Alabama in back-to-back seasons in the last 20 years. The Tide will have to earn it, though, as this game figures to play out like it should, right down to the wire. I say take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

UNLV has been like a hot slot machine for its backers this season, going 9-2 ATS, including 5-0 ATS when taking points. Even better, dogs in MWC championship games are 8-2 ATS, including 4-0 ATS when they own a .750 or greater win percentage. That fits like a glove with the Rebs’ 6-0 ATS record as a dog of 5 or fewer points and their recent 4-1 ATS dog log. Boise State is 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS when riding a 3-0 SUATS win skein, including 0-7 ATS when coming off a win of 8-plus points, and Big Blue is 0-3 SU versus .750 or greater opponents this season. Remember, the Runnin’ Rebels are playing at home this afternoon and coach Odom is 12-1 SU at home in his career in games in which his team sports the better win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are just 6-14-1 ATS against avenging opponents and have misfired in today’s role, going 1-6 ATS against MAC foes seeking double revenge, as well as 1-6 ATS as conference chalk away from the Glass Bowl. MAC dogs in conference title games have gone 15-6-2 ATS, including 13-2-2 ATS versus foes coming off consecutive wins. The RedHawks are also 8-1 ATS with conference revenge, including 5-0 SUATS this season, and 7-1 ATS coming off an ATS loss against a foe coming off an ATS win. Finally, Miami is 21-5 ATS as a dog under head coach Chuck Martin when coming off an ATS loss, including 8-0 ATS the last eight games.

PAC-12 Championship Best Bet

Rating: 4 Units

Ironically, the Huskies are the first – and only – undefeated team to land a berth in the Pac-12 championship game. While QB Michael Penix Jr. gets the lion’s share of media attention, we’d like to heap some praise on second year Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer. Not only is he 23-2 SU since taking the job in Seattle, DeBoer is 15-1 SU with the Huskies when they own a better record than their opponent, including 13-0 the last 13 games. He also fits right into tonight’s role, going 6-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog with the Huskies. The Ducks may have cashed more tickets in this series of late, going 14-4-1 ATS, but they’re just 3-8 SU with revenge when Washington sports a .875 or greater win percentage.

Thursday Night Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

Dallas looks to close the gap on the Lions, 49ers, and Eagles in the NFC Playoff Picture. For all of their success, though, there is a tax that must be paid, and tonight it comes as an inflated 9-point favorite. It’s more than they laid here to the Jets and 3-points more than what they were favored by here against New England. Topping it off, they have a same-season revenge rematch on tap with the Eagles. Pete Carroll’s crew enters this affair 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this series. Carroll is also 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS in Game Twelve of the season, including 8-0 ATS as a single-digit dog. With those boxes checked we wrap it up with the fact that Seattle is 14-1 ATS when coming off consecutive losses as an underdog, including 10-0 ATS in the last ten games

Rating: 2 Units

The Vikings return home having had their 5-0 SUATS win skein snapped in a loss at Denver last week. The bigger problem they face tonight is they beat Chicago earlier this season in a game in which they mustered 220 yards while being outstatted in the contest. It was the game in which Justin Fields was injured, but he’s back. With it, the Bears bring a 6-1 ATS log in Monday Night road games. On the flip side, Minny is just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on Mondays since 2009, including 0-6 ATS when coming off a loss. 

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating; 5 Units

If the NFL playoffs were to begin this week, Philly would own the No. 1 seed in the NFC. However, due to its recent funk, Buffalo would be on the outside looking in as the No. 8 seed in the AFC. Remember, though, the Bills are one of only five NFL teams that rank in the Top 10 on both offense and defense this season – the Eagles do not. We top it off with the fact that Buffalo is 5-0 SUATS the last ten years against foes coming off a Monday Night game. Finally, playing against any NFL home team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in its last game is 6-0 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland enters Mile High this week feeling a Mile High themselves. Meanwhile, Denver enters today’s game on a 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS run in its last five games against the AFC North. They also had a -52 net PPG on the season, as opposed to Cleveland’s +47 net PPG this campaign. On the other side of the field, Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games. With Denver, 2-12-1 ATS in its last fifteen games as a favorite, look for Kevin Stefanski’s magical patchwork show to continue its winning ways today.

Rating: 2 Units

Today’s game is a battle for the top spot in the AFC South and with it, the Texans bring the better offense and the better defense into this contest. Houston is 5-1 ATS as a dog behind Stroud, winning 4 of the games outright. They are also 21-5 SU and 15-10-1 ATS in this series, including 8-2 ATS as a dog. With the ‘Ville 1-5 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back division games and 4-8 ATS in its last dozen division games, we’re on the take here today.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Biggest Achilles without Joe Brr is the Bengals’ pitiable ground game which ranks last in Rush Attempts Per Game and No. 30 in overall rushing. Still, the bottom line is Pittsburgh is still 0-10 ‘In the Stats’ this season, and you won’t find us laying points with them any time soon. Not with the Bengals 5-0-2 ATS when coming off two losses, including 4-0 outright in the last four games. While this appears a strange “Best Bet” consider that the Bengals head coach Zac Taylor is 12-3 ATS as a dog against an opponent the Bengals defeated in their most recent meeting, including 12-1 ATS as a dog of more than one-point

PAC-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Bruins are just 6-14 ATS when playing against revenge in this series and are a miserable 3-7 SU and 1-8-1 ATS at home after facing USC. Add to that a 2-9 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in LHGs and we put up the stop sign in Pasadena. Meanwhile, Cal head coach Justin Wilcox is 13-5 ATS as a home dog, including 7-0 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite versus a foe coming off a win as a dog. UCLA has the nation’s second-ranked rushing defense, but Cal’s sophomore RB Jadyn Ott has averaged nearly 145 yards on the ground over the last four games and scored 6 TD’s and is the Pac-12’s leading rusher. Finally, Cal is 9-1 ATS in this series when UCLA is coming off a win

Rating: 3 Units

Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS as road chalk of more than 7 points, and 5-1 ATS with single revenge (lost to the Tree last year on a fourth quarter field goal in a 16-14 defeat). As for the Cardinal, it’s been a disastrous campaign in the wake of David Shaw’s departure, capped off by losing The Big Game to Cal, 27-15, for the fourth time in the last five years. (Stanford had been victorious nine times in a row before that.) Today they enter with a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven roles as home dogs. They are also 1-5 ATS versus single revenge and 0-7 ATS off an ATS loss versus a foe off an ATS win.

Rating: 3 Units

Season-ending games have not been kind to Wisconsin either as they’ve gone a puzzling 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in season finales the last six years. Yes, Minnesota is coming off consecutive losses of its own, but the Gophers are 18-6 ATS when coming off a pair of losses, including 9-1 SUATS at home. They’re also a sweet 8-1 ATS as a dog after dressing up as a dog. Finally, Minnesota head coach P.J. fleck is 6-2 ATS as a dog in his career in season finales, including 4-0 ATS versus sub .800 opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The host in this series is 5-0-1 ATS / 3-1 SUATS with revenge when the Tide is off a win of 50-plus points. You also need to know Auburn is 9-5-1 ATS in this series when coming off a loss, including 2-0 ATS off a loss of 20 or more points, as well as 8-2 ATS off a loss with a winning record. Including Alabama, a handful of 1-loss playoff-eligible teams take the field this weekend with visions of making the College Football Playoff.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The NCAA stuck to their moronic stupidly needless rule not allowing a team to play in a bowl game while transitioning from D3 to D1. The week got worse when the ‘72 Dolphins popped the corks once JMU was upset by App. State. You can’t fix stupid, so JMU is finishing their promising season at Coastal against a team that likely hasn’t forgotten the 47-7 beatdown they took from J. Mad last year. Finally, Coastal Carolina is 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS as a single-digit dog with revenge on the brain, including 4-0 SUATS when the Chants are batting .600 or better in the win column.

Rating: 2 Units

A 10-31-1 ATS mark as conference road dogs against opponents coming off a double-digit win certainly does not bode well for Texas A&M, nor does its 2-8 ATS record in season finales. Meanwhile, the LSU defense has not been very good, but the explosive attack behind QB Jayden Daniels has more than made up for it on the other side of the football. The Tigers have owned this series, going 11-1 ATS in the last 12 matchups. The Bayou Bengals are also 9-2 ATS with single conference revenge (lost 38-23 as double-digit road chalk last year), 7-2 at home versus a less-than-500 SEC opponent, and 6-2 in their 3rd straight home game. With Brian Kelly doing everything in his power to help Daniels capture this year’s Heisman Trophy, figure the starters to be in the game longer than usual in this rout.

Rating: 2 Units

Losing two straight to Michigan in this series has been a rarity for Ohio State but they’re a profitable 8-2 ATS with double-plus revenge versus greater than .700 foes. The Buckeyes also thrive in the role of underdog, going 17-4 ATS as a dog since the Buckeyes lost 24-21 to Texas in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl as an 8-point dog, including 10-0 ATS in Big Ten battles. And if OSU is taking points after being favored in its previous game, they check in with a 9-1 ATS mark. Yes, the Wolverines have fielded a rock solid defense this season, allowing just 9 points and 253 yards per game. However, the Buckeyes have posted a 15-3 SU and 12-6-1 ATS record versus conference foes that allow fewer than 10 PPG. With Michigan just 2-6-1 ATS of late when tangling with undefeated conference opponents and head coach Harbaugh not on the sidelines for a third straight week, we expect the Buckeyes to take care of business today in the Big House. 

Rating: 2 Units

Missouri is on a 0-5 ATS mark in Last Road Games, they’re also 4-12 ATS in the final game of the season, including 0-6 ATS away. As glorious as this campaign has been for Missouri, Arkansas has suffered through the complete opposite, a 4-7 record that has left both coaches and fans of Razorback football totally exasperated. A win this afternoon in Fayetteville won’t cure that but a good showing in front of the home folks on Senior Day would send them into next season with some positive momentum. The Hogs have some good numbers backing them up, including a 4-0 ATS series run on this field, and an 8-1 ATS skein for the game’s host. Sam Pittman’s troops also own a 4-1 ATS record versus .750 or greater SEC opponents, and 7-2 ATS of late as conference dogs.

Rating: 2 Units

While Miami has nary a win against teams with a winning record this season, they are 7-0 versus .500 or fewer foes. It’s a Mike McDaniel thing, as he is 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS with Miami against losing teams, including 8-0 ATS in the last eight games. With gang Green just 1-6 ATS in the first of three straight home games and 2-8 ATS on weekdays, we’ll lay the wood in this Black Friday special.