Rating: 2 Units

It’s also not very pretty what happens to undefeated road favorites coming off a week of rest from Game Six out when facing an avenging conference foe coming off a loss. These teams are just 3-19 ATS in this role since 1995. That dismal stat plays right into the Mountaineers’ 8-0 SU and 5-1 ATS success when coming off a loss the past four years

Rating: 5 Unit MNF Game of the Month

Playing on (Tennessee) any NFL home dog of more than 3 points with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and did not cover its last game by 20 or more points if they are facing an opponent coming off an ATS win of 7 or more points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Upset of the Week

Today, the Pats return home to host Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the league at 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. It’s where The Hoodie is 155-41 SU and 110-78-8 ATS in his career with New England, including 14-4-1 ATS when taking points. The Cowboys enter after taking down an injury-laden Giants squad at home last week, carrying a 9-21-1 ATS mark in non-division duels in games after knocking off New York, including 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games. Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career against teams from the NFC East, including 3-0-1 ATS as a dog. He is also 6-0 SU versus the Dallas Cowboys. The Clincher: Playing against any NFL non-division road favorite of more than
3 points coming off three consecutive home games and a SUATS win is 14-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Browns lost to the Chargers on Sunday, even though they scored more than 40 points and didn’t turn the ball over a single time, there had been 401 instances in the Super Bowl era where a team had accomplished both of those feats, and those teams combined to go 401-0. However, the Browns ended that improbable 401-game winning streak that had gone on for more than 50 years. Consider that 6-0 NFL teams in Game Seven are 1-9 SUATS when facing an opponent coming off a SUATS loss, including 0-7 ATS if not favored by 12 or more points.

Rating: 3 Units

Bears’ defense showed their toughness and talent while leading the team to a road win in Las Vegas, their second victory in as many weeks. QB Justin Fields was just 12-of-20 for 111 yards and a touchdown, but he played mistake-free football, and came up with some clutch plays to support the great effort by his defense. With it, Chicago is 3-2 and is suddenly positioned to make the playoffs for the second year in a row. The Bears are 9-3 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points. Consider that the Bears are 7-1 SUATS when coming off two win under head coach Matt Nagy.

Rating: 5 Unit NCAAF Mismatch of the Week

It was a big “W” for the Utes last week in a double revenge matchup with USC, with a solid performance from new QB Cam Rising, but Utah is dragged down in this tilt with a 4-9 SUATS mark in games when coming off upset wins. Meanwhile, Arizona State is an ITS (In The Stats) darling this year, winning the yards in all six games while averaging +141 YPG. As a result, they are dominating the stat rankings this season, including No. 2 on the defensive side of the ball. With it, the overall yardage winner is 2-22 SU in the last 24 Utes games. ASU lost 21-3 at Utah in their most recent meeting in 2019, Herm Edwards’ worst loss with Arizona State since taking over the program four seasons ago. The Clincher: The Sun Devils are 14-4 ATS with revenge against an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 10-0 ATS against foes who allow 23 or more points per game.

Rating: 3 Units

Matt Corral is a legitimate talent, accounting for four more touchdowns against the Hogs in Saturday’s 52-51 shootout, but you know we’re not keen on laying points in conference games with bad defenses, and we won’t begin here. Toss in the Rebels’ abysmal series record of 2-13 SU in the last 15 games, plus their 1-5 ATS record overall as road favorites, and you can see why we’re headed for the betting window. Also playing against any college football road favorite off a win who allows more than 30 points per game and more than 4 yards per rush if they surrendered 60-plus points combined in its last two games before Game Seven of the season, are 3-20-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Teams coming in 3-2 and win in Game Six the prospects of donning bowling shirts improves considerably. Lose and they can begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus, these become pivotal games. These Game Six teams are at their best playing with the added benefit of a week of rest, going 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS. That should be music to the ears for Kansas State. In addition, put them at home and they respond with aplomb, going 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS. It’s where the Wildcats anticipate benefiting from home-cooking this week. And by matching them up against .600 or fewer opponents, their chances of winning improves dramatically as the teams have gone 7-0 SUATS in this role. That applies to Chris Klieman’s Kansas Sate crew.

Rating 4 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day

Purdue is one of only 10 teams in the nation that have out yarded every opponent they’ve faced this season, and besides a 5-1 spread record on the road versus conference revenge (plus 5-2 ATS with rest), they have covered 3 of the last four meetings in this series. Jeff Brohm is also 20-9 ATS as a dog, including 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss, so get out your crayons and color them dangerous. As for the sky-high Hawkeyes, they are 1-4 ATS at home with Big Ten revenge (lost to Purdue 24-20 in last season’s lid-lifter). While they knocked QB Clifford out of the PSU game last week, we’re banking they won’t do the same to the Boilermakers’ starting signal caller this week. The Clincher: Ferentz is 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite in conference games after defeating an undefeated foe, including 0-4-1 ATS at home, as well as 0-4-1 ATS versus winning opponents.

Rating: 5 Unit ACC Game of the Week

Playing on (Virginia Tech) any college football mission team (missed bowl game last year after having been a bowler the previous three seasons) if they are a home dog with revenge who allows fewer than 19.5 PPG if they are facing a foe that did not lose its last game by more than 3 points provided the foe rushes the ball for less than 288 YPG on the season is a perfect 18-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

When these same two teams met last season, Clemson was gaining 531 YPG and allowing 264 YPG, while Syracuse was averaging 264 yards of offense and giving up 486 yards per game. That was a net of +491 YPG in the Tigers favor. This year, it’s a net edge of +98 YPG in favor of the Orange. Clemson has also burned piles of money in 2021, going 0-5 ATS versus all opponents, while Syracuse checks in with a 4-1 ATS success. Things don’t look much better for Dabo and company as Clemson is 1-4 ATS as road chalk of 14 or less points, and 1-3 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss. By comparison, the ‘Cuse has cashed a ticket in three of the last four series meetings, and head coach Dino Babers stands 10-5 ATS as a dog the past two seasons.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills, Browns and Rams rank 1-2-3 in net yards per play. Guess who's fourth? The Eagles. Philly hosts a Buccaneers team that's failed to cover six straight primetime games and will be without stud linebacker Lavonte David. Tom Brady has a sore right thumb but says it won't affect his play. Consider that the Eagles have gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in Thursday performances while Tampa Bay has coughed up the bucks on Thursdays going just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Jackson has chewed up and spit out foes coming off a win, going 18-8 SU and 16-9-1 ATS with Baltimore, including 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS versus .333 or worse opponents. Meanwhile, the bruised and battered Colts limp into Baltimore with an 0-5 ATS ledger in their last five meetings with the AFC North. The Clincher: NFL road teams, coming off consecutive away games and a SU underdog win, are just 6-23 SU and 7-22 ATS when facing a foe coming off consecutive wins, including 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS if the visitor owns a sub .666 win percentage.

Rating: 4 Unit SNF Game of the Month

While the defensive genius of Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is a given, he continues to fly under the radar in games when coming off high-scoring efforts, going 8-1 SUATS in his career in games after the Bills tally 35 or more points in their previous contest. He is also 6-1 SUATS with Buffalo in matchups of winning teams when his troops own the higher win percentage. With that, we turn things over to The clincher: Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 7-0 SUATS when the Bills own a greater than .666 win percentage.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Niners enter off a pair of SU favorite losses, while the host Cardinals arrive off last week’s underdog win against the Rams. Because of it, the bottom line is this game is packed with value. Remember, the preseason line on this game at the Westgate Super Book was “pick”, so it’s been adjusted more than a variable rate mortgage loan. The Clincher: San Francisco is 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite, including 5-0 SUATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Playing against any .500 or greater NFL division favorite coming off consecutive wins, the last as a dog (Arizona), versus an opponent coming off consecutive losses, each as a favorite, if the Over/Under total in this game is more than 41 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Sean Payton has a 49-28-1 ATS career mark in games when coming off a loss, including 25-10 ATS away. While Washington is 3-8 SUATS in its last eleven games when hosting visitors from the NFC South.

Rating: 3 Units

Even after the return of QB Kedon Slovis to lead USC’s 37-14 thumping of Colorado last week, we’re not sure we can trust the Trojans to exploit the Utah reset on offense. Not when USC is 0-4 ATS in the series when coming off a SUATS win, plus a passive 7-13 ATS as Pac-12 home chalk, including 1-4 ATS in the last five. Need more? The Utes are a useful 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS when .500 under Whittingham, including 8-0 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points. The clinchers:  Head Coach Whittingham has been money in the bank as a dog when coming off a spread loss of -4 or more points, going 17-4-1 ATS in his career, including 13-1 ATS the last 14 games.

Rating: 4 Unit SEC Play of the Day

After losing 33 of its previous 35 battles with the Gators, you would think Mr. Mo-Mentum would stick around Lexington for another week, but his reputation is to bail on the Cats, who are 14-27 SU after games with UF, including 2-7 ATS as a favorite. The Tigers make things more difficult for the hosts with their 17-4 ATS as dogs when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 13-1-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opponents. And for what it’s worth, Kentucky’s finest is 0-3 SUATS since 1980 in Game Six after opening the season 5-0, plus Big blue is a weak 13-33 SU and 17-29 ATS in SEC games after winning any game SU as an underdog. The clincher: College football home favorites coming off a SU home win as an underdog of 7 or more points are 1-13 ATS the last six years when facing .600 or fewer opponents. Playing on any 3-2 conference dog in Game Six coming off a SU conference favorite loss if they scored fewer than 30 points in the loss (LSU) and are facing an opponent that was not favored by 6 or more points in its last game is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Playing on any college football home team that rushed for 300 or more yards in each of its last three games is 82-63-2 ATS in this role since 1980. Better yet, bring these overland juggernauts in off a confidence building spread win of 15 or more points, and they improve to 20-7 ATS in conference clashes. Best of all, these same teams who love to run are 15-3 ATS in this role since 1990.

Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week

Penn State is 3-0 ATS on the road with conference revenge (they got drubbed by the Hawkeyes in Happy Valley last year, 41-21, to drop them to 0-5), while Iowa is just 1-5 ATS at home against a vengeful opponent. The Lions are also 10-1 ATS in Game Six of the season versus a foe coming off a win, including 6-0 SUATS in the last six. Meanwhile, Kirk Ferentz is 2-6-1 ATS as a favorite in games when both teams are undefeated and the opponent is seeking revenge. The clinchers: when a 5-0 favorite is laying points into a 5-0  dog – as Iowa will be doing this week against Penn State – the 5-0 favorite is 6-14 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

UC is riding the nation’s second-longest home win skein at 22 in a row – all of which leads to the Bearcats laying four TDs to Temple tonight, a huge jump from their last meeting on this field, where Cincy edged the Owls, 15-13, as 8.5-point chalk. The fact is Temple has cashed five straight tickets in this series, and Rod Carey’s crew is riding a 5-0 ATS skein as dogs of 20 or more points. We feel a natural letdown is in order for the Bearcats here. Consider also that playing against any team off a SUATS win against Notre Dame if they are favored by 11 or more points and are facing an avenging .400 or greater opponent is 15-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

With Sunday’s win over San Francisco, Wilson has never lost three games in a row, and is now 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS while trying to avoid the trifecta. He is also 18-6-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS at home – not to mention 9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in games on Thursdays. Meanwhile, the Rams roll into the Emerald City off their first loss of the season knowing they are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in division duels on Thursdays, including 0-4 ATS when laying points. Given Seattle head coach Pete Carroll’s glossy 28-12 SU and 27-10-3 ATS NFL career mark in home games when his team does not own a winning record (.500 or less), we’ll be back on the take with the Seahawks tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chargers beat the Raiders, 30-27, as 3-point road dogs in December of last year, a costly loss that denied Vegas a winning campaign. Carr and head coach Jon Gruden look to get even knowing that the Raiders are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Monday Night games, while the Chargers own a 1-3-1 ATS mark in their last five Monday Nighters. The Chargers have blown a fuse when favored at home over AFC West foes, going 3-8 ATS of late, and L.A. is an even worse 2-12 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. Speaking of home, there may be more Raiders fans than Chargers’ faithful at SoFi Stadium tonight. Take the points.

Rating: 5 Units

Denver stands 22-10 SUATS at home versus opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 15-5 SUATS in non-division contests. Then there’s the red-hot Bridgewater, who is 21-6 ATS when his team is coming off a win, including 15-2 ATS versus non-division foes. Consider that 3-0 teams in the NFL are 15-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when hosting a non-division opponent.

Rating: 4 Units

The Steelers come into this one 7-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in non-conference road games. The fact that HC Tomlin is at his best when facing quality opponents who own a .666 or greater record, going 37-13-2 ATS when the foe is coming off back-to-back wins, including 20-6-2 ATS as a dog. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog, including 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS away against foes coming off consecutive wins.

Rating: 2 Units

Is a letdown in order for the Rams after knocking off the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs last week? According to the well-oiled machine, the answer is yes – given the fact that teams who upset the defending champs are just 26-35 SU and 24-36-1 ATS when facing a division rival the following game, including 9-19 SU and 8-20 ATS since 1980 when the divisional foe arrives off a SUATS win in its previous game.  Stafford is only 3-10-1 ATS in division games when coming off back-to-back wins. Since the Cards are currently on a 9-3-1 ATS roll as single-digit division road dogs, a take is in order today.

Rating: 3 Units

New Orleans is just 1-6 ATS in home openers the last six seasons. Meanwhile, QB Jameis Winston’s production last week almost mirrored his Week One performance – without all the touchdowns. Winston wasn’t asked to do much as he threw 30 fewer times than his counterpart, Mac Jones did. While being put under wraps, Winston didn’t make any mistakes, going 13-of-21 for 128 yards and two touchdowns, but it’s difficult being productive when you’re swathed in Saran Wrap. Consider this shocker that the Giants are the NFL’s best road dog the last four years, going 17-3 ATS since 2018.

Rating: 5 Units

Playing against any NFL team with a winning record coming off a Monday Night divisional win and cover if they are facing a .750 or greater opponents coming off a SUATS win of more than 3 points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. In addition, Rhule 36-13 ATS away and 40-19 ATS as a dog in his combined college and NFL head coaching careers, and Dallas a dismal 0-8 SUATS at home in games after coming off a Monday night game

Rating: 3 Units

The Devils are 10-2 ATS on the road with conference revenge and 5-0 ATS as dogs of less than a TD. They outgained Colorado (439-250) behind dual threat QB Jayden Daniels, who ran for 2 touchdowns and 75 yards, plus threw for 236 yards through the air. Meanwhile, Chip Kelly’s team bounced back from the last-second loss to Fresno State by pummeling Stanford on Saturday, 35-24, in their Pac-12 opener. However, UCLA is just 3-11 ATS as favorites of less than a touchdown. In addition, Kelly is 0-9 SU and 1-7-1 ATS at home with the Bruins versus foes coming off a win. To cap it off, consider that the Sun Devils are 11-4 ATS as dogs under head coach Herm Edwards, including 6-0 ATS in game in which they are allowing fewer than 17 PPG.

Rating: 4 Units

The Cats own a Top 10-ranked defense and are outgaining opponents by 183 yards per game this campaign. In addition, HC Mark Stoops is 12-5 SU and 12-2 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated, including 8-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win. His stop unit came up with a big effort in a 16-10 win over South Carolina on Saturday, while the rushing attack rolled up 230 yards on the ground.

Rating: 2 Units

Game Four rested road teams who find themselves off one loss have gone 34-17 ATS in conference games including 21-7 ATS when taking the field off a double-digit spread loss in their last game with favorites of more than seven points going 6-0 ATS (Knights) checking in at 11-4 ATS.

Rating: 5 Unit

Nevada has had a week off to lick their wounds from a 21-point loss to Kansas State, and should be raring to go in the high country today. It makes sense considering the Broncos are just 1-3 ‘In The Stats’ this year, outgained by 49 yards per game this season. Nevada head coach Jay Norvell (no relation to Mike) is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS coming off a bye, and we’re choosing to forget about the blowout loss to KSU. Consider also that Nevada is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus a foe coming off a win.

Rating: 5 Unit Cash Play

Playing on any college football home dog of fewer than 4 points (Notre Dame) from game five out if both teams are undefeated and the home dog was either a dog or a favorite of 7 or fewer points in their last game is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week

BYU comes into this one a money-burning 2-10 ATS in their last twelve tries as chalk, and coach Sitake is just 4-10 ATS as a favorite when coming off an ATS loss, including 1-8 ATS versus a foe not coming off a spread win of 7 or more points (0-7 ATS the last seven). We know if you watched Utah State implode against Boise State last week, you won’t relish the idea of backing them here, but the bottom line is, the Aggies are a “mission team” coming off a loss, seeking revenge. With non-conference teams 27-11-1 ATS in this role since 1990. Especially with added support that USU head coach Blake Anderson is 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland has yet to face a defense as tough as Iowa. Then again, Iowa arguably hasn't met an offense as explosive as that of Maryland. Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is the Big Ten's leading passer in both yards (1,340) and completion percentage (75.5). He's thrown 10 touchdowns and only one interception. Ferentz highlighted Tagovailoa's mobility, saying he gets out of the pocket "with ease." Consider that playing on any 4-0 or greater college football home underdog (Maryland) versus a 4-0 or greater opponent is a whopping 12-1 ATS since 2014.

Rating: 3 Units

The history book shows us that Dallas is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last ten division home games, while Philly was 0-3 SUATS away in division battles last season. Consider that NFL Monday Night home teams coming off consecutive road games, the last a SUATS win, facing opponents coming off a home game, are 32-11-1 ATS.

Rating: 5 Units

Game Three NFL teams are just 24-48-2 ATS in home openers when hosting non-division foes. Given the Niners’ 3-9 ATS record in Sunday Night games when coming off consecutive wins, including 1-8 ATS the last nine games, we gladly hand it off to the fact that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-3-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or fewer points in his career against opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 9-1-1 ATS the last eleven games

Rating: 5 Units

The revitalized Rams found their magic elixir in QB Matthew Stafford, whose 127.0 QB rating is nearly 40 points above his career average. The horned heads are 7-1 ATS in this series as well as 5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. On the other side of the field Tampa, who has yet to win the stats this season, is 1-7 ATS in Game Three of the season, as well as 1-4 ATS
in its last five games against NFC West opposition. To cap it off, consider that playing against the defending Super Bowl champion as a non-division road pick or favorite coming off a win in which they scored 48 or fewer points if they own a win percentage of more than .900 and are facing an opponent coming off a win of 14 or fewer points is 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit

Payton brings a 48-28-1 ATS career mark into this contest when coming off a loss, including 24-10 ATS when his team is on the road. On the other side of the coin, the Pats defense is carrying the offense this season while rookie QB Mac Jones learns on the job. Jones was 22-of-30 for 186 yards in last week’s rout of the Jets. With the Pats coming off a division win last week and having
a monster look-ahead to Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs, look for the Saints to be the hungrier team today. Also consider that the Saints head coach Sean Payton is 14-2-1 ATS in his career when coming off a loss and seeking revenge against an opponent coming off a win, including 7-0-1 ATS as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

What a comeback for the Ravens over the Chiefs! Outscored them 12-0 in the 4th quarter. They dealt Mahomes the first loss of his career in September. Lamar Jackson is 14-5-1 ATS on the road in his career & has become the fastest QB since 1970 with 3,000+ rushing yards (48 games). Thus, he now has surpassed Michael Vick (8) for the most games with 100+ pass yards and 100+ rush yards since 1960. In addition, the Lions have coughed up 30 or more points in each of their last eight contests, going 1-7 ATS in the process.

Rating: 2 Units

After booing injured QB Andy Dalton at home last week, it’s a good thing the Bears are playing in Cleveland this week. The fans sounded Eagles-esque. With Dalton on the mend with a bruised knee, it appears that Justin Fields is in line to make his first NFL start. Chicago’s 3-9-1 ATS record as road dogs of 6 or more points is likely to come into play, as is Cleveland’s 4-0 ATS mark at home when coming off a home game.

Rating: 5 Units

HC Riley is 4-0 SUATS in the next contest after OU scores 28 or fewer points in their previous game. Additionally, the Sooners overall are 29-2 SU and 21-10 ATS in conference games after failing to score 27 or more points. Battles against arch-rival Nebraska seem to give OU a kick in the pants as well – a 3-0 SUATS mark after playing the Huskers, with an average score of 60-19. After last weeks lethargic win means the Sooners need to make an impressive win in order to keep their place in the CFB Playoff chase, and they get it here. Consider also that West Virginia is 13-43-1 ATS in games they lose SU as a conference dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Playing against college football’s defending national champion in a non-conference FBS game if they are in the middle of a conference sandwich are just 9-24 ATS in this role dating back to 1980. And when they tackle a non-division foe that allows fewer than 21 points per game, they fall off a cliff, going 2-14 ATS. Worst of all, they are 0-7 ATS when favored by more than 15 points in these contests.

Rating: 3 Units

MSU is 0-3-1 ATS at home in Game Four of the season after beginning the year 3-0. The Huskers own this series, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. In fact, if you put tape over the names of these teams and looked at them from a statistical perspective you might have a difficult time determining which team is the favorite. Nebraska HC Scott Frost is 15-11-1 ATS on the road in his career, including 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of 18 or fewer points. Consider that 3-0 college football home favorites in Game Four who won fewer than 10 games the previous season are 4-17-1 ATS since 2000 when coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week

The Wildcats are 19-6 ATS in this series (including 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points), and Klieman is 10-3 ATS overall at KSU when coming off a win. As for Okie State, Sanders threw only 12 passes on the blue turf, but ran for a TD while senior RB Jaylen Warren rushed for 218 yards and two scores. Mike Gundy will be asked to do something he’s struggled with throughout his career, and that’s bounce back when coming off a SU underdog win. In fact, he’s so bad, the Cowboys are 3-11 ATS in games when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe with double revenge-exact, including 0-5 ATS the last five

Rating: 2 Units

Playing on any military team as a dog of 20 or more points off a loss of 16 or more points in which they scored 13 or fewer points if they’re facing a .500 or greater opponent is 16-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 4 Units

Yes, the AAC resident Tigers also remained unbeaten, enhancing their dossier as they look to move to a Power Five conference. The problem today is they tend to let down in games after pulling off upsets, going 4-11 ATS at home the next game when they sport a .500 or better record. It could be back to reality here for Memphis today against this imposing invader. Consider that  UTSA is 15-6 ATS on the road against non-conference opponents, including 4-0-1 ATS against those coming off a SUATS win

Rating: 5 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week

Iowa State has won three of the last four meetings with Baylor. The Cyclones needed to work for a 38-31 home victory over the two-win Bears in 2020, as Hall rushed for 133 yards on 31 carries and scored three total touchdowns but Purdy threw three interceptions along with three TDs. Purdy has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 736 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while going 2-1 against Baylor. Though the Bears (3-0, 1-0) have outscored their first three opponents 140-34 and beat league-foe Kansas by 38 last weekend, this will be their first true test of the 2021 campaign -- a challenge that coach Dave Aranda and his Baylor squad hope they are prepared to meet. Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon is 51-for-70 for 664 yards with five touchdowns, without being intercepted or sacked. Meanwhile, receivers R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton have combined for 27 catches, 440 yards and hree touchdowns. Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner have totaled 683 rushing yards, with the former posting five touchdowns.  Consider that playing on ay .750 or more college football home dog off consecutive wins if they scored 40 or more points in both games if they allowed 12 or fewer point in their last game (Baylor) is a perfect 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Play on an NFL home dog of 7 or more points who own a .500 or greater record, if they are facing an undefeated foe. These disrespected puppies that refuse to throw in the towel are 30-9-1 ATS since 1980 in this role. Couple Carolina’s 0-6 ATS log on Thursdays with Houston’s 8-2 SUATS all-time mark at home against visitors from the NFC South, and you have the ATS winner.

Rating: 2 Units

While ASU has a good shot at pushing this year’s SU home record to 3-0 with a win here, covering the 7-point number is a little more dicey, especially with the Mountaineers’ 3-7-1 ATS mark at home when coming off a home game, including 0-4-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents. Those lousy stats fit right next to Marshall’s current 6-1-1 ATS run as a non-conference road dog. Sure, App State will have revenge on its side this evening, after losing 17-7 as a 5.5-point road favorite last season. The better news is that  teams coming off a SU favorite loss, are 66-34-2 ATS, including 36-13-1 ATS as a dog – in addition to 29-10-1 ATS against a foe coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 4 Units

Baltimore QB, Jackson is 31-11 in his NFL career, including 15-6 at home. With it, he’s been a home dog only once back in 2019 when he took 3 points from New England and beat the snot out of Tom Brady and the Patriots, 37-20. And then there is Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh, who brings a lofty 19-4 SU and 15-8 ATS career record at home during the month of September. To top it off, consider, that  defending NFL Super Bowl loser as an away pick or favorite vs. a non-division opponent that won 9 or more games last season is 1-12-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 5 Units

Prescott is 5-2 SUATS as an underdog when coming off a loss in his NFL career, including 4-0 SUATS the last four games. In addition, the Cowboys are 10-3 ATS as non-conference road dogs. The Chargers completed an uncanny 14 of 19 third downs in last week’s win over Washington. We don’t see that happening two weeks in a row. Not with the Bolts sporting a 6-10 SU and 3-12-1 ATS record when favored in games before taking on division rival Kansas City. In addition, NFL teams coming off a SU loss and ATS win on Thursday are 15-7 ATS away since 1986, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in games before facing the Rams and 2-8 ATS after taking on the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Atlanta invades off a deeply disappointing 32-6 home loss to the Eagles in new head coach Arthur Smith’s debut. NFL head coaches, coming off a season-opening loss of 20 or more points are 12-7 ATS the following game, including 9-3 ATS away. With the Dirty Birds sporting an 11-1 ATS record in Game Twos, we’ll join the Super Bowl Champ fade-train today.

Rating: 3 Units

Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford’s, has a 10-15-1 ATS record as a road favorite in the NFL, including 2-9 ATS versus foes coming off a double-digit loss – with a 0-4 ATS mixer added in when Stafford is coming off a win in its last game. Colts head coach Frank Reich is 17-8-1 ATS in his NFL career as a head coach against foes coming off a win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS versus greater than .750 opponents

Rating: 2 Units

In the Dolphins’ takedown of once-mighty New England, QB Tagovailoa went 16-of-27 for 202 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. He nearly had a second pick, but a Patriot defender dropped the pass. Miami is also famous for post-Patriot letdowns, just 2-11 ATS since 2013, including 0-5 ATS when coming off a win over New England.

Rating: 3 UnitUpset of the Week

Teams who beat USC are 4-15 ATS the following game against non-conference foes coming off a SUATS win. In addition, the Cardinal as a favorite in games after pulling off an upset as an underdog, are 10-22-1 ATS. HC David Shaw checks in at 3-8-2 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win themselves, including 0-8-1 ATS in the last nine games. The Commodores picked up their initial win under new head coach Clark Lea last week, when they surprised the Rams at Colorado State, 24-21, as +6.5-point underdogs. It was the first time Commies put one in the win column since November of 2019. Today they’ll look to make amends for the ugly home loss to East Tennessee State that opened the season two weeks ago, knowing they are 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at home in lined games versus non-conference opponents when coming off a win, including 7-0 SUATS against foes also coming off a win. Also consider that .500 College football teams in Game Three of the season are 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS since 1980 in non-conference games when coming off a SU win as a dog of 14 or more points.

Rating: 4 Units

SEC dogs of 7 or fewer points are 8-18 SU and 9-17 ATS in battles with the Big Ten, including 3-10 ATS of late. Also, HC Bryan Harsin, in his first season in Auburn after leaving Boise State, has a shaky 1-5 SUATS mark versus non-conference foes coming off a SUATS win. Penn State is on a 6-0 SUATS win skein since starting the 2020 season on a 0-5 skid. James Franklin is also 8-4 ATS at home versus SEC opponents – he beat Auburn, 17-13, in his only meeting from his days with Vanderbilt. In addition he is 8-2 SU at home versus undefeated opponents, including 6-1 SUATS when his team is coming off a win.  But also consider that Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin is 17-4 SUATS in his career when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 12-0 ATS over the last twelve games.

Rating: 2 Units

Georgia is just 3-8 ATS as conference home chalk of more than 17 points. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of more than 15 points, and the Gamecocks are playing hard under new HC Shane Beamer. Also consider that Drilling down, if the 2-0 teams managed to beat the spread in each of their first two games, they’ve gone on to beat the spread only 45% of the time in Game Three. And worse, if they are facing an avenging foe who they defeated in their most recent meeting, they fall to 38-60-2 ATS. Put these same teams up against a conference foe and they erode to 14-37-1 ATS, including 0-11 ATS when favored by more than 23 points.

Rating: 3 Units

The last time Memphis dressed up as a home dog versus the SEC, they knocked off Ole Miss, 37-24, as a 10-point underdog. Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield also took down UCF and Houston last season, winning and covering as a home dog. And in case you didn’t know, Memphis is 9-3 ATS against SEC foes who own a winning record, including 6-1 ATS at the Liberty Bowl. Finally, consider that College football home dogs in Game Three of the season who scored 40 or more points each in a pair of season-opening wins are 13-2 ATS since 1991.

Rating: 2 Units

Alabama HC, Nick Saban is 8-18 ATS as a favorite of more than 14 points with Alabama in games in which the Tide’s average rushing offense is less than its opponent’s average rushing offense, including 1-11 ATS during the first six games of the season. Florida head coach Mullen comes in a lofty home dog log (2-0 SUATS with Florida), including a glitzy 5-0 ATS when taking double-digits. Bama has won seven straight games in this series, but then again, Utah had won seven consecutive games against BYU until last week! Saban is also just 30-33 ATS with the Tide as a favorite of 17 or fewer points in SEC games, including 1-4 ATS within the first three games of the season. Getting in and out of the Swamp may not be an easy task for Alabama this Saturday, so we’ll swim against the Tide on the back of the Gators.

Rating; 3 Units

Last week’s narrow victory over the Rockets puts the Fighting Irish at just 1-5 ATS in their last six tries as home chalk. That’s not good considering Purdue is 8-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points, and the Boilermakers have cashed in the last three series meetings. Head coach Jeff Brohm brought back 18 starters from a squad that squandered a 2-0 start last year by going 0-4 SUATS thereafter, and they’ve taken care of business so far against Oregon State and UConn. With Notre Dame just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games versus Big Ten foes, and 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games, we just can’t go with Kelly’s heroes this afternoon.

Rating: 5 Units

Indiana HC, Allen stands 15-7-1 ATS when coming off a win, including 9-1 ATS the last ten. Not many good ATS numbers for Cincinnati here as the Bearcats are a surprising 3-6 ATS as road chalk. With Top 10 teams dropping like flies the last two weeks, we’ll take the Hoosiers to spring yet another upset today. Also consider that Cincinnati HC Fickell is 1-5 SU on the Big Ten road in his career, including 0-5 when his team sports a winning record.

Rating: 3 Units

The Louisville defense is allowing 402.0 yards per game and is going to have a tough time slowing Dillon Gabriel and the UCF offense, which is averaging 583.0 yards. The Louisville offense, led by QB Malik Cunningham, won’t be able to keep up, much the same way the Cardinals fell short against Ole Miss. I’m on UCF to cover. Consider that  UCF is 6-1 ATS as non-conference road chalk, while the Cardinals have slammed into the ground as dogs of 10 or fewer points, currently on a 0-7 ATS dive.

Rating: 2 Units

Giants QB,  Jones is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS versus Washington, and his OC Jason Garrett was 14-5 against Washington while with the Cowboys, including 3-1 SUATS as a dog. Consider also that New York is  7-1 ATS in its last eight division road games while Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as division home chalk

Rating: 4 Units

Playing three road games in a row is always tough, as since 2014, sixteen other teams have been in that same situation: playing their last two preseason games on the road and then opening the regular season on the road. Those sixteen teams are 6-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in Week One, including 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS if they failed to make the postseason the previous year. Both Baltimore and Jacksonville played their last two preseason games on the road, and then open the season on the road. That makes their Week One game their third road game in a row. MNF favorites dip to 4-12 SU and 1-15 ATS when laying less than 6 points in a game in which the Over/Under total is set at 40 or more points

Rating: 5 Units

Chicago will be starting Andy Dalton, who brings a 6-19 SU and 9-16 ATS record into this game in his last twenty-five starts. With it, the Bears lug along a 1-7 ATS mark as dogs of 5 or more points and an 8-18 ATS dog log under the Sunday Night lights. On the home front, there’s a reason that head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead were comfortable trading multiple first round picks for 33-year-old quarterback, Matthew Stafford, with one career Pro Bowl. The former fi rst pick in the 2009 draft, he gives them a missing ingredient and a key factor that nearly every Super Bowl winning team possesses – a top-flight quarterback. His career Passer Rating actually ranks higher than the likes of Terry Bradshaw, Brett Favre, Joe Namath, Bart Starr and Roger Staubach, all Hall of Fame Super Bowl winning QBs. Given the hard-heads’ 4-0 SUATS record in season openers under McVay and the host team going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, consider also that NFL away teams in their first game of the season who made the playoff the previous season with 9 or fewer wins are 2-12 SU and 1-13 ATS since 2001.

Rating: 3 Units

For what it’s worth, Winston is 28-42 SU and 30-36-4 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 12-21-3 ATS at home and 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite. However, he is 15-9-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. With that, the Saints are 43-23-3 ATS as dogs under Sean Payton, including 9-2-1 ATS at home as well as 25-9-3 when seeking revenge (New Orleans lost 37-30 as a 3.5-point favorite to Green Bay in September last year). Additionally,  the Saints are 6-0-1 ATS as home dogs of 6 or fewer points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Falcons have endured three straight non-winning seasons fi ve times since 1990. They bounced back with winning efforts every year, making to the postseason all five times! The bad news for Philly is the Eagles allowed a league-worst 65 sacks in 2020. The good news is Philadelphia will face the league’s softest strength of schedule versus foes who were a combined .430 last season. The Falcons’ luckless 1-8 mark in one-score games, including four in their first five games (all losses), sealed Atlanta’s fate last season. Nevertheless, they were not as bad as their 4-12 record indicated. With Matty Ice now 11-2 SUATS in home openers with the Falcons, and Philly a puzzling 1-12 ATS in domed that last five years, we’ll side with the home team.

Rating: 5 Units

Liberty HC Freeze is 8-3 SUATS as a favorite in his college football head coaching career against opponents with an identical record, including 6-0 SUATS in non-conference contests. On the flip side, the Trojans have hit a rough patch, going just 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS the last two-plus seasons, including 2-7 ATS in games when coming off a win. With both teams loaded to the gills with returning talent, look for these numbers to continue here today.

Rating: 5 Units

Arkansas State is 8-1 ATS as a nonconference home dog and now move forward with new head coach Butch Jones (popular Blake Anderson left in the off-season for Utah State) and Red Wolves cruised past Central Arkansas, 40-21, in Jones’ first game last week as a -13.5-point favorite. ASU has assumed the role as a “mission team” this season, suffering its first losing season last year after having been a bowler the past ten seasons. Today, they will look to avenge a 37-24 loss at Memphis to start last year’s campaign knowing that Red Wolves head coach Butch Jones is 18-3 SU at home in his career when coming off a win of more than 8 points. Consider that any college football non-conference home dog of 3 or more points in Game Two with 17 or more returning starters if they are seeking revenge against a foe off a win of 7 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week

The Owls seem to have taken on a different demeanor under HC Mike Bloomgren, who has improved his team’s defense each year since coming aboard. Also, Bloomgren is 15-10-1 ATS as a dog with the Owls, including 11-4-1 ATS with revenge. Consider that Game Two dogs returning 17 starters and coming off a SUATS loss of 15 or more points, are 18-2 ATS when facing a foe coming off a loss.

Rating: 10 Unit NCAAF Game of the Year

While the Cyclones are the choice of many to meet Oklahoma
in a rematch of the Big 12 title game again his season, they are coming off
another close-call with Northern Iowa (aren’t they all – last 9 games with
the Panthers have resulted in 3 losses and 4 wins of six of fewer points).
Still, they are 9-3 ATS in games after tackling Northern Iowa when facing
foes coming off win, so look for more of the same today. In closing, if
you want some numbers, be aware that Iowa is just 2-9 ATS as a nonconference dog of less than 13 points, while the Cyclones are 6-1 ATS as
non-conference home favorites of less than 18 points. Additionally, the
host team in this series has covered four straight contests.

Rating: 3 Units

The Buffs opened with a 35-7 win over Northern Colorado last week by outgaining the Bears 281-17 on the ground, while getting TDs from four different RBs. Freshman Brendon Lewis started at QB after beating out two other freshmen (last year’s starter Steven Noyer transferred to Oregon State this summer), going 10 of 15 for 102 yards. This Colorado home game will be played at Empower Field in Denver – the home of the Broncos – instead of Boulder, but consider that Buffs HC Dorrell is s 19-8 ATS as a dog in his career, including 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS at home.

Rating: 4 Units

ND HC Kelly is 0-4 ATS in his career versus .500 or greater MAC foes when his team is not coming off a double-digit win, and 4-8 ATS Game Two since 2008, and 5-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite when coming off a win-no-cover. Coach K must also take a closer look at an anemic Notre Dame ground game that averaged a feeble 1.9 yards per rush against FSU. Jason Candle’s Rockets just happen to be 10-4-1 ATS when undefeated and coming off a win of 28 or more points, including 5-0-1 ATS the last six away. And when the Irish find themselves favored by less than 20 points in Game Two of the season, they have no luck at all, currently standing 5-18 ATS in that role of late. And just when you thought we couldn’t heap any more abuse on Kelly? Also consider that the Irish head coach is 0-5 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points when coming off a win before facing a Big Ten opponent.

Rating: 5 Units

Cadet "D" was best in land LY, & holding Georgia State under 180 yards may just signal repeat (allowing

Rating: 2 Units

Since 1980 teams who won a Super Bowl as an underdog are 84-102-5 ATS as a favorite the following season, including 50-80-4 ATS versus foes that won 6 or more games the previous season. Also, last year’s champs are just 12-24-1 ATS as favorites of more than 6 points during the first two games of the season. With the Bucs being weighed down by their overdone Super Bowl rings and just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS on Thursdays, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS at home, look for the Brady bunch to fall to 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven NFC East skirmishes tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Norvell was hired last year after the Seminoles suffered consecutive losing seasons after coming up winners the previous 42 years, but the plague continues. Meanwhile, former Miami head coach Randy Shannon was brought in to clean up the defense. QB transfer McKenzie Milton was “fully cleared to play” after playing five seasons, and going 26-6 at UCF before suffering a gruesome right knee injury, after which he spent five months in a wheel chair and on crutches. And 5-star recruit RB Demarkcus Bowman transfers in from Clemson after backing up Travis Etienne. Florida State underclassmen tallied the most player starts (52.3%) in the ACC last season. Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is 27-5 SU and 17-9-1 ATS at home in his college career, including 3-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. In addition, only two of his 5 home losses have been by more than 7 points.