Rating: 2 Units

OU is just 1-5 ATS as double-digit chalk when seeking revenge against a less-than .500 conference opponent, including 0-4 ATS the last four games. Yes, at 5-6 this season, it’s been a precipitous fall for a TCU team that played in last season’s CFB Playoff championship game. While the Sooners do own a 20-7 SUATS record in season finales, defending CFB title game losers are 9-2 ATS as dogs the following season – both losses by TCU this season – including 7-0 ATS when facing .800 or greater foes. The Froggies are also on a 4-0 ATS run when playing Oklahoma in Norman if they have a .500 or less record, and 4-1 SUATS away off back-to-back home games. 

Rating: 3 Units

Seahawks are 10-2 SU and 9–3-1 ATS at home in this series, including 7-1 SU and 7-0–1 ATS if not coming off an ATS loss of 4 or more points. They are also 8-2 ATS as home dogs of 3-plus points. San Francisco enters 4-9 ATS versus division foe seeking triple revenge, including 1-6 ATS when coming off consecutive wins. And they are winless on Turkey day at 0-2 ATS. Finally, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 23-9-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 9-2 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS as a home dog of 7 or more points of late, compared to Kiffin’s 4-0 ATS march as a road favorite in the same price range. We all know things can get weird when two teams are playing for an Egg Bowl trophy that looks suspiciously like a football, but we’ll count on State’s 4-10 ATS record versus .500 or greater conference foes.

Rating: 2 Units

Detroit is 15-4 SUATS at home when coming off wins in each of their previous three games, including 9-1 SUATS when they sport a .690 or greater win percentage. Green Bay saved its season by beating the Chargers. Unfortunately, its next two games come against the Lions today and Chiefs next week, and they are riding a 0-4 SUATS mark in the last four games in this series and have topped 24 points on only one occasion this season (in their opener against the Bears). Thanksgiving Day favorites of more than 7 points are 19-2 SU and 16-5 ATS when facing .500 or fewer foes, including 6-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins. With that, look for Detroit to improve on its current 11-1 ATS record in division contests.

Rating; 2 Units

Teams returning off a SUATS win in Europe are 3-10 ATS, with rest against avenging foes, including 0-3 SUATS versus winning foes. Philly is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS of late in regular season games against .750 or better opponents. On the other side of the coin, the Chiefs are 3-5-1 ATS as regular season favorites against .750 or better opponents. With the Chiefs holding a commanding 3-game lead in the AFC West, we don’t expect to be seeing much urgency tonight, especially since the Eagles are 13-4 SU and 15-2 ATS on Mondays when coming off a SUATS win, including 14-0 ATS when Philadelphia owns a winning record. 

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Seahawks have allowed more yards than they’ve gained this season. and the ultra-angry Rams enter off their Bye week riding a 0-3 SUATS losing skein. Underdogs in this role are 27-10-1 ATS since 1995. It doesn’t hurt that L.A. is 9-1 ATS the last ten games in this series, including 5-0 ATS when the Seahawks arrive off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, Seattle enters just 3-8 ATS in its last eleven division roadies, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite. Tie it into the Rams’ 26-16-1 ATS record in division games behind Sean McVay, and McVay’s 4-0 ATS mark in the first of consecutive division games when coming off a loss of 7 or more points, plus McVay’s 3-0 ATS career mark as a division dog with a losing record. Finally, the Rams are 4-0-1 ATS as a dog with a week of rest.

Rating: 2 Units

The Niners got off the schneid in a big way in last week’s rout of the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week, and with it, they have reasserted themselves as the team to beat on the road to the Super Bowl. They’ll bring a 15-2 ATS mark as home favorites into the tilt, including 10-0 SUATS from Game Ten out. The Bucs currently enter as the No. 8 overall seed in the NFC Playoff Picture, but are 1-7 ATS against the NFC West and 1-6 ATS after hosting an AFC opponent.

Rating: 2 Units

Making his first start after tearing his anterior cruciate ligament last year, Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray was a bit rusty against the Falcons. That’s normal. But with his rushing, his ability to extend plays, his pocket presence and his arm, the downtrodden Cardinals (2-8) are far more competitive with him under center. Murray completed 19-of-32 for 249 yards with no touchdowns against one interception in the Cardinals’ 25-23 win. He also scored a rushing touchdown while gaining 33 yards on the ground on six carries, including a 13-yard scramble on a third-and-10 with 1:50 left in the game that set up the game-winning field goal. Noting Arizona’s 5-1 ATS mark against the AFC South and the Texans’ tepid 1-5 ATS record before hosting a division opponent. Finally, playing against any NFL favorite with a winning record from Game Five out if they won 4 or fewer games last season and are off a SU underdog win in their last game 32-66-4-4 ATS in this role since 1980. Bring them in against an opponent off a win, and they lose almost all of their luster, going 8-29 ATS. To top it off, if the foe is not coming off consecutive home games, these favorites fall to 3-27 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Line opened at San Jose State minus 14½, and is still minus 14½. Right, we are aware of the fact that the visitor in Spartan games this season stands at 7-1 ATS. However there is another trend in the works, that being Spartans' 5-game spread run (7-2 for the year), covering their last 4 games by 21, 16½, 24½ & 21½. Not only that, but San Jose sits at 5-5 SU, which ensures total dedication in quest for a bowl possibility. The 3-7 Aztecs are just the opposite. On a 1-7 SU run, with their 2 covers since Sept coming by just 1 pt & ½ pt. Revenge raises it head here.

Rating: 3 Units

ASU is 0-3 ATS in their last three before Arizona, 1-5 ATS in the first half of back-to-back home games, 3-9 ATS in last home games when coming off a SUATS win (they shut down UCLA 17-7 last week) and even worse 0-6 ATS when the Sun Devils are coming off a double digit spread win. Oregon is 5-0 ATS as a conference road favorite of 15 or more, 9-1 ATS when favored last game while the opponent was the underdog in its last game. Oregon boasts the nation’s No. 2 offense, run by a Heisman Trophy candidate whose thrown for 3,315 yards, with a 77.7% completion rate, and a TD:INT ratio of 29:2.

Rating: 2 Units

The ATS archives favor taking the points with Minnesota this afternoon, as Minny is 9-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS losses, and coach Fleck is 5-0 ATS as a road dog of 25 or more points, plus 4-0 ATS as a double-digit dog versus undefeated foes. The Gophers’ 3-0-1 ATS recent series run coupled with Ohio State’s 1-8 ATS failure before meeting Michigan seals the deal here. Additionally, Game 11 has been the bane of the Ohio State Buckeyes. They are 1-8 ATS the last nine years, 0-7-1 ATS versus a foe off a SUATS loss, and 0-4 ATS when undefeated. 

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Vols come in 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games,7-0 ATS when coming off a conference road game, and 6-0 ATS off a loss. Despite their spotless SU record this season, Georgia is a surprising 1-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, and 1-4 ATS in their last five conference road games. Additionally, Defending National Champions are 26-38-1 ATS as road favorites against .700 or greater opponents, including 0-6 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS loss. Finally, playing against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game 11 if they are facing a .666 or greater opponent is 17-2-3 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Army is a timely 7-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in LHGs, including 2-0 SUATS as a dog. As for today’s opponent, the Chanticleers enter this game red hot, riding a 5-0 SUATS win skein, with the last three victories coming as underdogs. However, favorites coming off three consecutive outright wins have struggled to the point that they become prime bounce material the following game. Army is looking for payback, too, from last season’s 38-28 loss as a 1.5-point dog at Coastal. Military teams are 18-9 SU and 15-11 ATS versus Sun Belt Conference teams, including 5-0 SU from Game Eleven out. Finally, Non-conference favorites, coming off three consecutive outright wins, are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS since 1990, including 0-5 SUATS the last five games.

Rating: 3 Units

The Bengals have taken numerous standing 8-counts this season, entering tonight’s contest 1-4 against the AFC, including 0-2 in division games. If they lose this contest, they will have little to no chance in any tiebreakers when it comes to the NFL playoffs. Cincinnati is 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last eleven games as a dog behind Burrow, as well as 4-0 ATS away against foes coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Finally, Cincinnati is 10-2 ATS away with Burrow when coming off a loss, including 5-0 SUATS in games when the Bengals own a .400 or greater record.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are 6-1 ATS on weekdays but Boston College is 15-8 ATS as a dog in this series, including 6-0 ATS as dogs off a loss, while Pitt is 0-4 SUATS as a favorite this season. In fact, we’re not sure why a two-win team is laying points to a six-win bowl squad. 

Rating: 2 Units

Miami Ohio has not quite clinched the division title yet, needing just one more win against Buffalo or pitiful Ball State (also 3-7), but only a total collapse will keep the RedHawks away from a showdown with Toledo for the conference championship. When it comes to recent ATS history Miami holds all the cards, currently riding an 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS streak, and bringing a salty 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS streak on Wednesdays into the fray. Difficult to take that on with Buffy’s money-burning 2-8 ATS mark in games coming off a SUATS loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Chippewas will have a better shot at springing the upset versus Ohio here as opposed to next week’s season-ender against mighty Toledo. The Chips do sport a nifty 17-3-1 ATS record on Wednesdays to boot, including 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS away. We also like that the CMU coaching staff has lit a fire under the running game, as they’ve churned out 544 rushing yards in the last two outings while gaining 6.5 yards per carry. Should that ground assault continue, it will be a strength-versus-strength matchup as Ohio’s stalwart rush defense allows just 95 YPG and 3.3 yards per carry. The deal breaker appears to be the Bobcats horrid 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS skid in this series of late, so we’ll take as many points as we can get and back the Chippewas here.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Denver checks in 0-9 ATS when coming off an underdog win, 0-7 ATS of late in this series, 0-6 ATS away when coming off consecutive home games, and 1-8 ATS when they are coming off a pair upset wins. And we didn’t even mention the Broncos’ 1-5 ATS ledger on the Monday Night road. Buffalo piles on at 7-0 SUATS in its last seven games as a favorite against the AFC West. They are also 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS against foes coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 SUATS at home. If that’s not enough, then check out that Buffalo is 33-12 SUATS coming off three ATS losses, including 14-1 ATS against foes coming off a win (9-0 ATS at home).

Rating: 2 Units

Just when the Giants fan base was hopeful after Daniel Jones' return, a knee injury. NY has trailed by 20+ pts in 4 games already this season. Tommy DeVito had his 1st career TD pass w/ the Giants down 27-0 in the 4th. NY is the 1st team to score less then 16 pts in 7 straight games since Denver in '18-'19. Too many missed opportunities was the difference in Philadelphia last week. Dallas has their longest home winning streak (11) since '91-'92, the 1st year when they won the Super Bowl under Jimmy Johnson. They have outscored their opponents 111-33 at home this year. CD Lamb w/ 11 rec for 191 yards vs Eagles. The Boys check in mad as hell, and they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when coming off a loss.

Rating: 3 Units

The problem at hand today, is Jackson’s inability to deliver the goods as a home favorite with the Ravens, just 13-21 ATS overall and 3-8 ATS in division duels, including 1-5 ATS versus .500 or better foes. That could be a problem down the road for Jackson, considering that every team in the division is 5-3 or better, all playoff qualifiers today. And speaking of defense, Cleveland has now held two different opponents under 100 yards this season, which is impressive, when you consider that no other team has even done it once this season. Also, the Browns are the first team since 1992 to hold multiple teams under 100 yards in one season. Like the Ravens, Cleveland has limited four foes to season-low yards this campaign. We understand the Brownies are 0-10 ATS in games when both teams are coming off a win, but QB Deshaun Watson is 11-2-1 ATS as a dog in this league when his team was favored by more the three points in its previous game. Remember, there was no Watson when the Ravens put a 28-3 beatdown on the Browns in an earlier meeting in October. Finally, Cleveland HC shines in games when installed as a dog of more than 3 points in his career, going 11-4 ATS, including 8-1 ATS when seeking revenge. 

Rating: 3 Units

Stanford is 1-8 ATS versus .700 or greater foes and are a pathetic 1-6 ATS as a dog of 17 or more. They are simply not good. Oregon State, now 12th in the CFP rankings, has been the Terminator in this series lately, going 5-1 ATS as the host and are also 4-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games.

Rating: 2 Units

Teams who lose but cover against a defending national champ are 88-76-1 SU and 88-63-4 ATS the following game since 1980, including 54-31-1 SU and 47-28-1 ATS at home. Those are the kind of long-term numbers we like, and we like head coach Eliah Drinkwitz’s 24-8 outright mark at home, including 5-0 when coming off a loss of more than 7 points. This battle of 7-2 squads could determine the difference between a New Year’s Day invite and a late-December bowl game for these two very good teams. However, the Vols’ 3-6 spread record vs .750-or-better conference opponents, along with a 1-5 ATS mark in SEC games when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, sends us on the way to the home team.

Rating: 3 Units

Miami is 10-3 ATS as a dog in this series, including 7-1 ATS away. The Hurricanes are also 5-1 ATS as a dog after scoring 6 or fewer points in their last game when facing a foe off a win, including 3-0 SUATS versus greater than .800 opponents. All this may be falling on deaf ears after Miami’s 20-6 loss to NC State last week but when the Canes are held to 10 or fewer points they bounce back with aplomb, going 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog of fewer than 16 points. The Hurricanes actually outgained NC State in the defeat while holding the Pack to 216 total yards of offense. More bad luck for FSU: the series host is on a 2-7 ATS slide. Finally, Florida State is 0-10 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite when facing a foe coming off a loss as a favorite.

Sun Belt Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Anytime Vegas makes ASU the underdog, they deliver, going 10-1-1 ATS in their Sun Belt days and 9-1-1 ATS overall when on the receiving end of points in their last 11 games. Georgia State was rocked last week by conference leader James Madison, 42-14, and that was fresh off being blown out by Georgia Southern the week before when State gave up 44 points. The Mountaineers have won two straight games, combining for 80 points in wins over Southern Miss and Marshall and ASU QB Joey Aguilar has thrown at least two TD passes in every game this season but for the loss at Wyoming. ASU is the better offensive AND defensive team. Finally, since joining FBS in 2013 the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in Last Home Games versus foes coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Georgia Tech is probably the LAST team Clemson wants to see right now while it’s sandwiched between Notre Dame and North Carolina. The numbers don’t lie, and they tell us the Wreck is 8-1 ATS the last nine games as a dog, and 8-2 ATS in games when both teams come off SUATS wins. Clemson, who may still be celebrating last Saturday’s win, are just 1-5 ATS the last six games when coming off a win. Finally, playing against any college football favorite who defeated Notre Dame as an underdog in its last game if they beat the spread by 10 or more points in the win and they are facing a .600 or fewer opponent is 15-0-1 ATS.

BIG-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Consider that 9-0 teams hitting the road for Game 10 are 30-47-1 ATS since 1982 including 6-20-1 ATS when facing teams with competent defenses, giving up 20.5 ppg or fewer. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS with double conference revenge. James Franklin is 15-5-1 ATS at home with conference vengeance on the evidence table, including 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS with a win percentage of .800. Finally, Penn State is 8-3 SU against undefeated opponents under James Franklin when the Lions allow fewer than 12 PPG including 7-0 by an average win of 22.4 PPG.

Rating: 2 Units

Any excitement this Bears franchise had about Tyler Bagent is over, as they have lost their last two games, and Bagent has been a turnover machine. The Bears have the worst turnover differential in the league, and it has just gotten worse since Fields went down. The Bears are not good enough to be laying more than a field goal, Chicago has not covered a game as a favorite this season, in-fact they have only been a favorite once all year. The Panthers coaching staff may be fighting for their job, as rumors have swirled that coach Reich may be out after one year. The team will want to put Bryce Young in the best position for success, he was drafted first overall for a reason and will prove it against this weak Bears' defense. This game is on a short week, and it will not give Bagent time to prepare adequately, especially since the team is unsure if Fields will return. We'll side with the team with the potential future star quarterback, as opposed to the team with a backup who keeps turning it over.

Rating: 2  Units

Only one way to go, as host in Card games is a perfect 14-0, covering by 13, 19½, & 17½, & 20 points , with a 57-3 point edge in L2 home games. Cavs covered L2 road games by 27½ & 15½, but in off having 7-3 edge over Ga Tech, evolve into 45-17 loss. Now at #107 & #93 in rushing "O" & "D".

Rating: 2 Units

Buffalo has been struggling so much of the year, yet is only one game back of the Dolphins in the AFC East. Nevertheless, they’ll take the field this evening knowing they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six regular games against the AFC Central, as well as 13-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off SUATS wins.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Dallas has 11 wins in a row at AT&T Stadium, the league’s longest current run of dominance at home, but they are only 4-6 in their last 10 road games. However, they are also 6-1 SUATS in their last seven division games as a road dog of fewer than 4 points. Mike McCarthy chips in with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in division games with a .500 or greater record with Dallas. The Cowboys enter this division duke out at 4-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back division games, while first-place Philly is 5-12 ATS in division home games against avenging opponents, including 1-5 ATS when the Eagles sport a winning record. Finally, Dallas QB Dak Prescott is 27-7 SU and 24-10 ATS in division games, including 7-1 SUATS during the first half of the season.

Rating: 3 Units

Pete Carroll is 52-36-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks, including 16-7-1 ATS as a single-digit dog versus .750 or greater opposition. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the home team is 26-43-3 ATS in Lamar Jackson’s NFL starts, and Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins. Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in the first of three straight home game, while QB Lamar Jackson is 12-21 ATS as an NFL home favorite, including 1-7 ATS when the Ravens are coming off an ATS loss of -3 or more points.

Rating: 2  Units

CU is 1-4 ATS in their last five and the primary culprit has been the defense, giving up 37.6 points and 442 yards per game in those five games. Much like Deion, we’ve kept the receipts too and they point out Colorado is 0-15 ATS as conference home dog of 13 or greater. Oregon State is 3-1 in the last four and 9-1 ATS as a conference road favorite of 7 or greater.

Rating: 5 Units

The Huskies are 2-8 ATS as road chalk, 3-8 ATS in the last 11 against Pac 12 foes .666 or better in the W and L column and in their last four games UDub is 0-3-1 ATS. The Trojans are 8-2-1 ATS when the underdog. As a Coliseum dog, the Men of Troy are 16-10-1 ATS including 7-3 ATS vs. the undefeated. Riley is 40-3 ATS in his career at home. Finally, Lincoln Riley is 4-0 SU vs unbeaten conference opponents and 3-0 ATS as a conference dog.

Rating: 3 Units

The Golden Bears are 2-7 ATS the last nine games after USC. Put Cal on the road, toss a big number at them and the Bears run, run, run away, going 3-11 ATS as conference road dog of 14 or greater and you wouldn’t be alone wondering what’s left in the Golden Bears tanks after the SC loss. Oregon has gone 5-0 ATS against teams coming at them with double conference revenge in mind and unlike Cal, which seemingly can’t handle the Trojans in a cracked rearview mirror, Oregon loves looking into the future, going 20-6 SU and 21-5 ATS prior to tangling with Tommy Trojan. This includes a very healthy 7-0 SUATS vs teams that allow 30 or more PPG.

BIG-12 Play of the Day

The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in the last four Bedlam confrontations, but plenty of the numbers going into this year’s edition are not so pretty. Oklahoma is 4-15-1 as conference road chalk of 6 points or more, 1-4 against the number in Game 9, and 1-4 against the number versus single conference revenge. Oklahoma State is 8-0 ATS as home dogs of less than 14 points and 6-0 ATS w/ single conference revenge. Additionally, Okie State is 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups with a conference opponent. Finally, the Cowboys are 18-10 SU and 18-9-1 ATS at home under Gundy against foes with a better win percentage, including 12-2 SUATS the last fourteen contests

Rating: 3 Units

The Wildcats are 5-1 in Game 9 and 9-3 ATS versus.750 or better SEC foes. KSU’s Chris Kleiman holds all the edges, starting with a 34-19-1 ATS overall mark since joining the Wildcats in 2019, including 13-4 SU and 12-4-1 ATS against Big 12 foes coming off a SUATS win (8-0 SUATS over the last two seasons). Steve Sarkisian is 23-24 SU and 20-27 ATS when coming off a SUATS win, including 2-8 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents. Finally, confidence is high right now for Kleiman’s team, as they shut-out Houston last week, 41-0. 

Rating: 3 Units

Notre Dame is just 8-16 ATS as road chalk against avenging foes, including 1-8 ATS against foes who surrender fewer than 25 PPG. Be aware that Clemson fell 38-14 in South Bend last season and when we pair that with a strong 6-2 mark in their last 8 meetings with the Irish, we are looking at this game in a totally different light. Dabo Swinney has a 19-6 SU career mark in games in which his Tigers sport a .500-or-less win percentage, and he’s lost three straight games only twice in his career.  Finally playing on any college football underdog from Game Seven out during the regular season if they were a bowl team last season and are coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite and they are facing a greater than .700 foe off a SU double-digit win is e 28-14-1 ATS in this role since 1990, including 24-8-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SU win. Better yet, when taking on these same foes coming off a SUATS win, they’ve gone 15-2 ATS since 2011. 

Rating: 2 Units

The first four games of this season for Syracuse had the look of a painted masterpiece when they went 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, winning the stats in every contest by an average 267 yards per game. Then Orange went 0-4 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats), losing by an average margin of -18.5 PPG and an average stat loss of -302 net YPG. Boston College has won four straight games compared to Da Cuse’s four consecutive losses. In fact, the Eagles bring an 8-0 ATS ledger into this brawl when coming off a home favorite win, as well as a 5-1 ATS mark on Weekdays. BC is also looking to get even for back-to-back losses to the Orange, and Syracuse owns a dreadful 0-5 ATS record at home versus double revenge. Considering Syracuse has scored just 34 total points in their 4-game slide, the Eagles’ 6-2 ATS success when playing with double conference revenge gives us the win.

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh has four wins, and the Black-and-Gold’s offense has scored 12, 23, 17, and 24 points, respectively, in each – or an average average of 19 points per contest. It’s brutal. In fact, it’s eerily similar to another Black-and-Gold college football offense we’ve come to despise this season – Iowa. With it, the 3-4 Titans bring the better offense and the better defense into this fray against the 4-3 Steelers. With Tennessee a tidy 7-0-1 ATS in Game Eight’s the past eight seasons and the Burgers 0-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of -3 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Frogs dress up as a defending Playoff Championship Game losing dog, and while they are the only team to have failed in this role (8-1 ATS) since the inception of the College Football Playoff, (and they failed miserably in a 41-3 loss at Kansas State two weeks ago in their last appearance). Tech is an undependable 1-5 ATS when arriving off a SU favorite loss and they show up trending downward on a 0-2 SUATS skein. Don’t forget this: TCU head coach Sonny Dykes is 8-3 ATS as a dog when his team is playing with rest, including 3-0 SUATS versus losing foes.

MNF Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

Detroit returns home where they are 13-2-1 ATS as a host since Thanksgiving day in 2021. They are also 7-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off a SUATS loss. And then there are the Raiders, who rank dead last in the league in rushing, averaging 69 yards on the ground, despite having Josh Jacobs in the backfield, which goes to the abilities of Josh McDaniels as a head coach. Note that home teams on Monday Night Football are a resolute 31-18 ATS since 1980 when coming off a loss of more than 21 points. Finally, Lions’ head coach Campbell is 17-8-1 ATS at home as an NFL head coach, as well as 18-6 ATS in games in which his squad hold foes to 100 or fewer rush yards, including 14-1 ATS the last 15 games.

Rating: 2 Units

Despite having the luxury of golden-armed QB Justin Herbert, Brandon Staley is looking over his shoulder with the poor performance by the Chargers this season. They sport the 31st-ranked (2nd worst) overall defense in the league and have outgained only two opponents in overall yardage this season (by 01 and 41 yards). Still, with Chicago 0-5 SUATS off a win, as well as 0-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, it’s difficult casting a glance their way tonight, especially with Bagent making his second NFL start. Look for the Bolts to improve to 5-1 ATS under Staley in games when coming off consecutive losses tonight.

Rating: 3 Units

With Saquon Barkley back in the starting lineup, expect Big Blue to attack a lean Green rush defense that is 16-34 ATS in the last 50 games in which it allowed 100-plus yards on the ground. Meanwhile, the Jets have not won a game when coming off a Bye week since 2015, going 1-10 outright, including seven straight losses since 2015 (0-2 SUATS under Robert Saleh), while the Giants are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. Finally, the Giants are 8-4 ATS as a pick or dog in non-division games under Brian Daboll, including 3-0 SUATS versus .500 or fewer opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

Now that Belichick is breathing without a bit after last weeks win, we’ll look to fade him in a series he’s gone 0-6 ATS of late while bringing a 1-9 ATS dog-log into this affair, while his counterpart Mike McDaniel looks to improve on his 7-2 ATS mark in division games (3-0 SUATS at home). 

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta is on top of the AFC South for the first time in eight seasons, despite a minus-18-point differential. To which they can thank a defense that ranks No. 4 overall, allowing a mere 285 YPG. The Titans’ hope is coming off a Bye week, where they are 6-0 ATS in this series when rested, and a 5-0 ATS log at home before hitting the highway in the next two games, which should fit like a glove into the Falcons’ flighty 3-12 ATS record away in games when coming off an away contest.

Rating: 2 Units

A positive omen is the fact that NFL underdogs who have allowed 40-plus points in each of their last two games are 7-2 ATS the past nine seasons, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a non-division contest. On the flip side, the Texans check is 0-4 ATS as a favorite after dressing up as a dog in their previous game. With Carolina 4-0 ATS in this series, and 7-1 ATS against opponents coming off a Bye, and 9-2 ATS against AFC South opponents, we’ll fade a Houston squad that is 1-7 ATS against foes coming off a Bye. With the Texans having 11 players on the IR, which ties with the Colts and Falcons for most in the league, look for the Panthers to win today. 

PAC-12 Game of the Week

Rating; 5 Units

Jedd Fisch rebuild, now in its third year and very much on track. Last week they embarrassed Washington State 44-6 for the Wildcats largest margin of victory over a ranked opponent. Oregon State is a solid, well-coached outfit to be sure and QB DJ Uiagalelei has finally stopped having screaming nightmares about Clemson Coach Dabo Sweeney. DJ hasn’t been picked since September 30th vs. Utah. Watch for the starting QB for Fisch- early in the week he had not announced if RS-Freshman Noah Fifita gets the nod against over the injured vet Jayden de Laura. If he plays, it’s a game changer in favor of U of A since the Hawaii native is completing a very nice 69% of his passes and has three rushing TD’s. Jedd Fisch is 4-0 ATS as a dog versus teams coming off consecutive SUATS wins. AZ is 4-2 ATS and 6-0 SU in this series when coming off a win of 28 points or greater and they’re 5-2 ATS as conference home dogs. Finally, the Beavers are 1-7-1 ATS as road favorites of fewer than seven points, including 0-6-1 ATS vs sub .600 opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

Georgia Tech has been a major thorn in North Carolina’s side for two straight years, winning 21-17 at home as a +21.5-dog last season, and 45-22 at home as a +14.5-point-dog in 2021. That’s just the tip of the bad-news iceberg for the Heels, as they’re 2-15 ATS when coming off a conference home game and head coach Mack Brown is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in his career when coming off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 15 points. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets have cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings, plus they’re a stout 6-1 ATS of late when taking points. If that sounds like too much for the downtrodden Tar Heels to overcome in Atlanta tonight, consider that playing against any college football favorite coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 20 or more points if they’re facing a .400 or greater opponent has produced a 27-45-2 ATS overall ATS mark since 1980. Better yet, put these same unassuming squads up against an opponent coming off a loss, and they become a 5-20-1 ATS fade (North Carolina).

Rating: 2 Units

The Cowpokes return home to Stillwater off three straight upset, underdog wins knowing they are 0-8 ATS as a favorite when coming off a win of more than ten points as a dog. With Bedlam rival Oklahoma on deck, look for another Homecoming favorite to bite the dust here, as long as the Bearcats can slow down RB Ollie Gordon II. As for Cincy, the Bearcats are on series of bad runs, but playing against  any college football favorite of -4 or more points coming off three consecutive underdog wins if they are facing an opponent that is not coming off a win of 24 or more points is 11-1 ATS, and we don’t turn our back on 91% winning propositions. Additionally, Scott Satterfield is 8-4-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win.

Rating: 3 Units

CU has been outgained by an average of 75 yards per game this season and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road dog appearances, 1-9 ATS coming off a home loss, 1-6 ATS as the dog after being the favorite last game. The Bruins are one of ten remaining teams that has outgained their foes in every game this season. Colorado is last in the FBS world defensively, and UCLA is 7-1 ATS off a win vs. a team coming off a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Ryan Day’s team is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as favorites of 14 points or more, 1-6 ATS in Game 8 and 1-6 ATS against the number after butting heads with Penn State. It is strange to see the Big Ten West division leader installed as a 14-point home dog, but that is the hand the Badgers are being dealt today. Additionally, Wisconsin is a perfect 10 ATS when getting more than six points as a home underdog.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

KU is 5-1 ATS in the last six games of this series and a most impressive 7-0-1 ATS versus undefeated opponents that give up more than 14 PPG. (OU is a still stingy 16.4 PPG). Can Oklahoma stop the run? The Sooners are going to have to, because Kansas has a two headed rushing combo of Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Junior who have combined for nearly 1,100 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns so far. Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS when coming off a conference home game. Finally, Jayhawks Head Coach Lance Leipold is 29-10-1 ATS at home in FBS play, including 13-1-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opponents and 12-1-1 ATS when his team is .700 or better. Rock, Go Against the Chalk, KU!

The 6-1 / 3-1 Panthers are breathing down James Madison’s neck for top honors in the Sun Belt East, but the fact of the matter is they, and Georgia Southern each control their own destinies of playing in the Sun Belt championship game simply by winning out. It may seem strange seeing the Eagles as chalk here but their previous three losses to the Panthers were all close games, losing by margins of 8, 7 and 6 points. In addition, Georgia Southern has been held to less than 34 points just twice this season in losses to James Madison and Wisconsin. Throw out those two games and the Eagles offense has churned out 38.9 PPG. With it, we’ll back the avenger with the better offense and the better defense here tonight. 

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

When the Bolts hired Kellen Moore from Dallas to be their offensive coordinator after firing Joe Lombardi after last season, Moore was expected to elevate the Chargers’ offense among the best in the league. So far, Moore has done that for the passing offense, but the Chargers’ trouble running the ball has remained. Nonetheless, QB Justin Herbert enters 12-7 ATS in his NFL career in division games, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of more than three points. With the Bolts 10-3 ATS as division road dogs and the Chiefs 1-6 ATS after hosting a Thursday game. Finally, defending Super Bowl champions coming off a SUATS win are 8-18-2 ATS at home in division games the following season against foes coming off a SUATS loss, including 1-9 ATS when the champs sport a greater than .800 win percentage.

Rating: 3 Units

After tallying more than 36 points in Games Two through Four, the Bills plateaued with 20-and-14-point scoring efforts the past two weeks. Buffalo’s rush defense is among the worst in the league, allowing 5.4 YPR (only Denver is worse at 5.6). That’s a full 2.0 YR worse than the 3.4 yards per carry that the Pats allow. Aside from Buffalo having a difficult time in Game Sevens, 1-7-1 ATS the last eight years, the Patriots are 7-1 ATS in the seventh games of the season, including 6-2 outright. Finally, Patriots HC, Belichick is 15-4 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points, including 4-0 SUATS when his team sports a sub .250 win percentage.

Rating: 3 Units

Raiders’ signal caller Jimmy Garoppolo was hospitalized with a back injury during last week’s contest against New England. On Bagent’s first drive in the NFL, he was strip-sacked, and the Vikings returned the fumble 42 yards for a touchdown. It proved to be a costly play in the Vikings’ 19-13 victory. With the quarterback situation up in the air in this fray, we’ll look to fade Las Vegas’ 0-9 ATS ledger as a road favorite as the Bears improve to 8-2 ATS in this series

PAC-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

There are some good numbers on USC, including a 9-3 ATS mark with triple revenge, plus a 6-2 spread record after a non-conference road game and a 5-2 ATS record after taking on Notre Dame. As for the Utes, it’s beginning to look as though they will be redshirting star QB Cam Rising, as his recovery from knee surgery is not looking promising. Kyle Whittingham is 8-16-1 ATS when the Utes lose their previous game outright as a road dog, including 1-12-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points. Finally, USC head coach Lincoln Riley is 40-2 outright at home in his career, including 20-0 from Game Six out.

Rating: 2 Units

Florida State has dominated this series, none of those results came with Mike Elko roaming on the opposite side of the fi eld for the Blue Devils. Elko is 14-5 SU and 13-4 ATS at Durham, including 3-0 SUATS as a double-digit dog. Duke’s only defeat this season came by just 7 points in a gut busting 21-14 loss to Notre Dame and Elko calmed the masses two weeks later with a suffocating 24-3 defeat of NC State. As for FSU, we’re simply not enamored with their body of work this season as they’ve been out-yarded on two occasions, and own a mediocre 343 YPG defense.

Rating: 3 Units

To start with the Black Knights are 8-2 ATS s dogs of more than 20 points, and a 5-2 ATS mark for Army in their last seven matchups with the SEC. Then, Military dogs of 14 or more points are 7-0 ATS versus SEC foes since 1984. Also, playing on any college football military dog of 20+ points coming off a SUATS loss versus an opponent coming off consecutive SUATS wins is 12-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Bayou Bengals are just 1-4 ATS before a Week of Rest, and a miserable 2-8 ATS when coming off a conference game versus a foe coming off a non-conference contest. Brian Kelly’s offense had another explosive game last week against Auburn behind his dazzling QB Jaylen Daniels, but laying such heavy lumber is not where we believe we need to be. And with the Tigers eyeballing Alabama next, we’ll surely take the number.

Rating: 3 Units

Sooners are 4-1 ATS after taking on the Longhorns. They are also 12-0 ATS at home before back-to-back road tilts. Meanwhile, the Knights have not been a good underdog in recent years, going 1-6 ATS as dogs of more than 2 touchdowns, 1-5 ATS with rest, and a horrible 2-10 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss. These lousy numbers are not a good omen for the struggling Knights, who enter on a 0-3 SUATS slide after opening the season 3-0. The plummeting record coincided with the loss of QB John Rhys Plumlee to a leg injury, and while he did start in UCF’s last game, a 51-22 loss to Kansas, it is not encouraging that he played only the first three series against the Jayhawks before leaving with another minor injury.  

Rating: 3 Units

Penn State HC Franklin has beaten the Buckeyes only once going into his tenth season with the Nittany Lions, he’s mopped up against the spread, cashing in 7 of their nine series get-togethers, and three of four against Day. There is also a huge disparity in numbers today. Penn State is 9-0 ATS in its last nine Big Ten contests and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 conference road games. By comparison, Ohio State stands 0-5 ATS as home chalk of 10 or fewer points and 0-5 ATS in games when both teams are unbeaten, and the Buckeyes are coming off a conference tilt.

Rating: 2 Units

JMU hit the wall after a 5-0 start last season when they proceeded to drop their next three games before rallying back with three straight wins to close out the campaign. We can see more of the same in the offing this season as they edged Georgia Southern by only 18 total yards in last week’s 28-point home win, thanks largely to a 3-0 turnover edge against the Eagles. Sure, the Stumbling Herd has lost two in a row, but they’re a thundering 18-4 SU at home when coming off consecutive losses, including 10-0 the last ten. To seal the deal, Marshall is 8-2-2 ATS as a home dog against undefeated foes, including 5-0-2 ATS in games in which the Thundering Herd is not undefeated.

Rating: 3 Units

The bottom line tonight, though, is we can’t lay a number like this with a team that played in London last week. And not when NFL Sunday Night home favorites of 7 or more points are just 12-22-1 ATS against non-division foes. The Giants allow 5.3 Yards Per Rush while the Bills permit 5.8 Yards Per Rush. We realize this matchup doesn't necessarily pass the smell test but forget about that and instead focus on the fact that NFL .600 or greater teams returning from London, coming off a SUATS loss, are 0-5 SUATS all-time.

Rating: 2 Units

The Panthers are 3-44 SU and 9-36-2 ATS in games in which they surrender 17 or more points, including 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS versus AFC foes. It’s been a rough start for Carolina QB Bryce Young, the top overall pick in last year’s NFL draft. He ranks No. 32 overall – last overall among the league’s starting quarterbacks – with a 28.6 QBR. Miami’s 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record in games where they are coming off an ATS win when taking on foes coming off an ATS loss sets the table. Carolina’s 1-6 ATS all-time mark in this series seals the deal.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Jacksonville is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as home favorites behind QB Trevor Lawrence. Game Six of the season has been more like a devilish 6-6-6 to the Jags as they are 1-12 SU in Game Six the last 13 years, including 0-6 ATS at home. That’s chock full of bad numbers, if ever there were any. If you think those bad numbers, consider that Jacksonville is 2-14 SU and 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game!

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Titans gained 400 yards two weeks ago facing the Bengals and then another 347 this past weekend. It appears the offense has come alive, but the defense yielded a season-high 429 yards in last week’s loss at Indianapolis. With NFL teams who are dining on tea and crumpets 6-1 ATS as favorites when arriving here off a SU favorite loss, we take added solace in knowing Jackson is 24-11 SU and 22-11-2 ATS away from home with the Ravens, including 4-0-2 ATS when coming off a loss. Finally, Tennessee is 1-13-1 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of 5 or fewer points versus AFC North opponents.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

UM is better than last year’s brutally disappointing squad and the Canes are one of 16 teams unbeaten In the Stats; of course UNC is also one of the 16 but the Tar Heels are a sticky 3-7 ATS in the second of three straight home games. Mack Brown’s team is 5-0, and he could have been joined by Mario Cristobal’s Canes, who instead are 4-1. Finally, UNC is 4-11 SU and 1-14 ATS when coming off a conference home game, including 0-9 ATS as the favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

The Herd stepped up in class last weekend and nearly shocked NC State so stepping back into conference play should be a little easier, even though Georgia State is 9-0 ATS in games when last week’s opponent was a dog. Downtown Atlanta’s Team may be 4-1 overall but 2-3 In the Stats and 0-3 at home since 2020 when coming off a home loss. Marshall remains a rugged defensive presence, made all the tougher by the Herd’s 7-2-1 ATS away mark when coming off one-loss-exact, backed up by 4-0 ATS when not laying 3 points or more. Finally, teams in Game 6 coming off one loss are 20-4-1 ATS.

ACC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Panthers rush defense is best in the nation. In this series, Pitt is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS plus 8-1 ATS coming off a conference game. The Panthers are 9-4 ATS as a dog coming off a SU favorite loss, including 3-0 ATS at home. Finally, playing against any college football favorite who defeated Notre Dame as an underdog in its last game if they beat the spread by 10 or more points in the win and they are facing a .600 or fewer opponent is 14-0-1 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Huskies are just 16-30 ATS in Pac-12 games since 2017, including 8-17 ATS at home. Looking deeper, Washington has failed to cover in their last five games with rest, are 0-4 ATS in Game Six and just 2-6 versus conference revenge. That payback factor was put in place last season when Oregon lost 37-34 as 12-point home chalk to the Huskies in 2022, the first time the Ducks did not cover in this series since Willie Taggart was head coach. Meanwhile, great numbers abide for the Quack Attack: 6-0 ATS in Game Six, 4-1 coming off a conference win of more than 35 points, 5-2 against the spread with rest and 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. Finally, look at their sparkling 8-2 SUATS mark in the last ten Pac-12 games.

Rating: 3 Units

Michigan is 5-0 ATS record at home off consecutive road games, and a near perfect 8-1 ATS success off a road win. Indiana has won only 8 of its last 21 games under soon-to-be-fired head coach Tom Allen and despite the exorbitant spread on today’s game, we can’t back a squad that’s gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as a road dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in the last seven away versus an undefeated conference opponent, and the series visitor has cashed four of the last six tickets. Yes, FSU’s offense is scary as hell, but the garnet-and-gold is just 2-7 ATS off a win versus a foe off a loss and 2-5 ATS in the second of 3 straight homers. They’re also just 3-2 ITS (In The Stats) behind a defense that surrenders 364 YPG. Finally, the Syracuse HC is 15-6 ATS away in his career against opponents coming off a win, including 5-0 ATS with revenge against foes coming off a win of 20+ points.

Rating: 2 Units

Let’s face it: the Broncos' defense is literally nonexistent at this point of the season. In the last two weeks, they surrendered 28 points to the Bears and 31 to the Jets, a pair of teams that no one was going to confuse with a top-five offense in the league. Facing a Kansas City team that hasn’t necessarily hit their stride offensively is going to be a tough hill for the Broncos to climb. The Chiefs have performed well defensively, though they admittedly haven’t faced a Murderer’s Row of offenses to this point of the season. Denver’s last win against the Chiefs came back in September 2015 and they haven’t held Kansas City under 22 points in any of the games in this 15-game skid. Since Denver’s defense is so leaky right now, you have to think that Kansas City rolls up 30-plus points here to earn a home victory, extending their dominance in the series.

Rating: 3 Units

West Virginia has been out-yarded in its last two victories, both as underdogs, so taking them as road chalk seems like a stretch. Almost Heaven is also just 1-6 ATS off a win versus foe off a loss, and coach Brown is 13-20-2 ATS against .400 or fewer foes, including 6-12-1 ATS when coming off a win. Looking inside Houston’s 49-28 most recent loss at Texas Tech two weeks ago, the Cougs won the stat battle, 489-400. But with Texas on deck, Holgo needs this win. Finally, playing against any college football team coming off three consecutive revenge wins in a row if they are facing a .400 or greater foe when a favorite are 18-35-1 ATS, including 8-27-1 ATS when coming off an ATS win of more than 8 points. Additionally, these teams fall to 2-20 ATS when facing foes that won 6 or more games the previous season. 

Rating: 2 Units

We’re looking at a pair of teams that have their fair share of questions that lack clear-cut answers. Green Bay is trying to find their run game as they have struggled to move the chains in that regard. Las Vegas has a similar situation as they are dead last in rushing yards per game this season. In addition, the hope is that Garoppolo will be able to play after missing last week with a concussion. O’Connell was decent in his NFL debut but was sacked seven times, six by former Raider Khalil Mack. The Packers have the better team right now and it’s tough to have faith in the Raiders given their problems on both sides of the ball. Take Green Bay on the road in this contest.

Rating: 3 Units

Denver ranks dead last in overall defense while being out statted -128 net yards per game. They also allow foes to chew them up on the ground, surrendering 5.6 Yards Per Rush. Finally, the Broncos are 1-14 ATS as a favorite if they were a favorite in their previous game, including 0-12 ATS when they have at least one loss on the season.

Rating: 3 Units

Arizona QB Josh Dobbs has sparked the Cardinals’ attack. They’re 3-1 ATS behind him; they beat the Cowboys as a double-digit dog, and they were within five points of the mighty 49ers at the start of the fourth quarter last week. In fact, his final two passes of the game last week were dropped touchdown passes that went right through the hands of two receivers in the end zone. Finally, the Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC West.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Rams come in with a 6-1 ATS mark in games when both teams are coming off wins as favorites. Philly tends to falter in games against the NFC West, going 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS in the past 25 contests. When the 2-2 Rams get Cooper Kupp back, it will be a scary tandem alongside rookie Puka Nacua. Nacua had another monster game after totaling 25 catches for 266 yards over the first two weeks, notching nine receptions for 163 yards last Sunday in Los Angeles’ overtime win at Indianapolis. Finally, playing against the defending Super Bowl loser from Game 5 out as an away favorite of fewer than 7 points in a non-division game versus a .333 or greater opponent is 16-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

The Fighting Irish have a 10-0 SUATS win streak against the ACC, including 6-0 SUATS under head coach Marcus Freeman with an average winning margin of 19.5 PPG. Yes, the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 this season but they’re a weak 1-3 ATS versus FBS opponents in 2023. Worse, they’re 1-9 ATS after NC State, 1-5 ATS after a Weekday road game, and 3-7 ATS as home dogs of 14 or fewer points. Surprisingly, the stat yards and numbers are close to identical for these two: Notre Dame rushes for 192.2 YPG while Louie rushes for 192.8 YPG, etc. But the Irish are an impressive 17-2 SU and 15-4 away off an away game.

Rating: 3 Units

Georgia has gone 0-4 ATS in the last four series meetings with Kentucky and some chinks in the Bulldogs’ armor have been exposed versus SEC competition in 2023. Kentucky is 14-1 ATS when coming off a home game and facing a foe coming off an away game. In addition, UK is 8-1 ATS off a win versus an opponent coming off a win and 5-1 ATS as conference dogs of 14 or more points. Finally Kentucky is 15-3 ATS with conference revenge the past six seasons, including 7-0 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated.

Pac-12 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Colorado has been outscored 90-28 in the first half of their last three games. The Buffs are also 1-8 ATS when coming off a home loss. Meanwhile, the Arizona State owns the better defense by 136 YPG and are also 9-0 ATS at home in Game Six of the season. They are also 17-9 ATS as a conference home dog, including 13-4 ATS when coming off a loss. Finally, Arizona State is 9-0 ATS as a home dog when both teams are coming off a loss and they are hosting an opponent that allows 23 or more points per game.

Rating: 3 Units

The red-hot Cougars are 4-0 and averaging over 45 PPG, and 17-0 ATS in games following a SU underdog win since 1993. Meanwhile, after getting shut down by a stifling Utah defense, Chip Kelly has had an extra week to prepare for this explosive Washington State team and will be using his 8th-ranked defense to try and slow down the Cougars, who also had the week off. UCLA is just 2-5 ATS with rest in their last seven in that role and further, are 4-11 ATS in regular season conference games when both teams are coming off a Bye week. WSU head coach Jake Dickert is a rising star, and behind him, we think the Cougars are primed for another upset.

Rating: 2 Units

Playing on any college football team in Game 6 of the season who lost their first 4 games of the season if they are coming off their initial win, and they are facing a conference foe who won 8 or fewer games last season is 36-19-2 ATS in all games since 1980, including 23-9 ATS when facing .400 or greater opponents. Better yet, if these same teams are coming off a SUATS win of fewer than 13 points they zoom to 17-4 ATS. That’s the role the Buffalo Bulls find themselves in when they host Central Michigan. Best of all, if the team won 4 or more games the previous season they skyrocket to 14-1-1 ATS in this role.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Plenty of smart people also know Texas historically underperforms when this is a heavyweight championship fight of undefeated teams. UT is 1-5 SU and 2-5 ATS when both teams are without a blemish (last time was 2011) and for some strange reason, Texas is 1-7 ATS the week before a bye. Finally, as big as Big Tex, the 55-foot statue that greets you in Fair Park: Texas is 4-16 ATS in its last twenty games against avenging conference opponents, including 0-9 ATS away from home.

Rating: 2 Units

Regardless of the Cowboys’ recent struggles, this is still Mike Gundy country, where the veteran OSU head coach is 22-9 SU and 18-11-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Revenge is certainly on the table tonight as well after Kansas State walloped the Pokes last year, 48-0, but while KSU is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 versus Big 12 revenge, that’s where the good news ends for the Wildcats. Head coach Chris Klieman is just 21-25-1 ATS away, including 3-17 SU and 5-14-1 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. Then there’s K-State’s 2-6 SU and 2-5 ATS ledger on Fridays, including 0-4 SUATS against foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the series host is on a 5-0 ATS roll, Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing with revenge, and 5-1 ATS as a conference home dog. Finally, OSU head coach Mike Gundy is 14-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in games when the Cowboys sport a .500 win-loss record, including 8-1 and 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record, as well as 7-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these squads coming off heartbreakers. What a horrible loss for the Bears to the Broncos. That tied for the biggest blown lead (21 pts) in team history. So now they are 0-4 for the first time since 2000. Justin Fields had a great day (4 TDs/1 INT), D.J. Moore had 8 receptions, 131 yards, & a TD & Kahlil Herbert with 18 carries for 103 yards, but still without a win. Washington will be facing a team which has allowed 25+ pts for an NFL record 14 straight games. The Commanders are 4-1 vs Chicago, but they are only 1-8 as home favorites in October.  Finally, Washington is 3-8 ATS at home after a division road game and 3-7 ATS after facing Philadelphia.

Rating: 3 Units

Stroud has completed 73 of 103 passes (70.9 percent) for 877 yards and all four of his touchdowns while inside the pocket. Outside the pocket, where he was often dangerous as a playmaker in college, Stroud has only completed five of 18 throws (27.8 percent) for 29 yards on 1.6 yards per attempt. Amazingly, he has accomplished all of this while playing behind an unsettled and injury-riddled offensive line that is allowing the third-highest pressure rate in the league. Through it all, he leads the league with a 77.8 percent completion percentage (14 of 18) against man coverage while tossing 222 yards and two touchdowns. The league average completion percentage against man coverage is 58.5 percent. So now that we’ve ascertained that we have the better QB in this game, we’ll lean on Houston's 6-1 ATS mark as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more when coming off its initial win of the season. With the Steelers staring dead ahead to a bigger clash up next with Baltimore, we look to the fact that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 12-21-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite coming off a win, including 1-11 ATS during the first six games of the season.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Titans surrender just 2.6 defensive yards per rush, which jumps off the page next to Cincinnati’s 5.1 DYPR. That’s a gaping difference. So, while a boatload of trends lines up in the Bengals’ favor, we’ll defer to stats and shade the Titans and Mike Vrabel and his glossy 16-9 ATS dog log against foes coming off a SUATS win. Finally, the Titans are 9-3 ATS at home against foes coming off a Monday night contest, including 4-0 ATS versus sub .400 opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

Gamecocks appear to have lost their edge following a close-but-no-cigar loss to Georgia, as they are now 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) against fellow FBS foes this season. Keep an eye on the line as South Carolina is also a miserable 1-7 ATS as road dogs of 12 or less points. Tennessee has cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings and despite a wobbly 3-9 ATS record in its last 12 SEC games when seeking revenge, we’ll still lay the points in this major conference payback.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas is 0-7 ATS as conference favorites of more than 10 points, 1-5 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins, and 2-9 ATS at home before facing fellow conference defector Oklahoma. Kansas has covered 5 of the last six meetings in this series, is 5-2 ATS as conference dogs of more than 10 points, and 7-3 against the number overall with conference revenge. Finally, Kansas head coach Lance Leipold is 10-3-2 ATS in his career against undefeated opponents, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Defending National Champions are 8-14-1 ATS as undefeated double digit road chalk versus .750 or greater opponents. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in Game 5 vs. conference foes and has a 3-1 spread mark as conference home dogs of 6 points or more. Freeze is 28-12 ATS as a dog, including 13-5 ATS versus undefeated foes. 

Big-10 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Vegas has made the Boilermakers the betting favorite, and that’s where things get ugly for Purdue. They are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games when laying points against avenging teams, 0-4 ATS at Ross-Ade last year and 0-3 SU at home this season. Purdue always seems tougher when they have the chip on their shoulder and here to knock it off is the fact that Purdue is 0-12 ATS as a conference favorite of 18 or less points.

Rating: 2 Units

Fisher is just 17-31 ATS versus avenging .500-or-greater conference opponents, including 2-12 ATS versus foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Hogs cashed our 4-star Best Bet winner last week and they’re coming right back for more this week. They are in the right role, going 14-6 ATS as a dog under head coach Sam Pittman, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 9 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Cardinals are gaining a lot of respect from Vegas, but the fact is they’ve lost the money in both of their away games so far. We don’t like that they have Notre Dame up next, nor their 1-6 ATS record when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. NC State QB Brennan Armstrong has struggled to find his footing after transferring in from Virginia, but we expect a breakout game from him tonight. Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren’s 7-3 ATS as a home dog with revenge, including 5-1 ATS when coming off a win, assures us we’ll root for the home team to pull off a mild upset. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Packers overcame a 17-0 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Saints 18-17 in a game which increased their home opening record to 16-1 in the process. With it, they bring a lofty 12-0-1 outright mark in second-home games entering this contest while going 9-3-1 ATS in those games. Tonight’s game also marks the first time in the last 10 meetings between these two squads in which Green Bay will be on the receiving end of the points.  The Lions are 4-28 SU in Green Bay dating back to 1992 – being the favorite only twice. Finally, the Packers’ are 4-0 ATS as a home dog. 

Rating: 2 Units

Blue Raider boss Rick Stockstill stands 9-5 ATS in his career against .500 or fewer foes that are coming off two losses, including 7-2 ATS in conference play. He’s also in his 18th season in Murfreesboro, so regardless of whatever Western coach Tyson Helton throws at them, Stockstill has probably seen it before. After the requisite blowout defeat against Alabama to start the season, MTSU acquitted itself nicely in a narrow 23-19 loss at Missouri and should get its first outright road win of 2023 here.

Rating: 3 Units

Houston, is a team that’s given Jacksonville fits over the years with the Texans going 15-3 outright in its last 18 games against Jacksonville, including 5-1 SUATS as a dog in this series since 2018. Additionally, while Houston is 0-2 SUATS this season, they are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats). Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has yet to cash an NFL ticket as a home favorite, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. To cap it off, Jacksonville is 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS as a favorite if the Jags were a dog in their last game.

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore looks to improve to 3-0 on the season, something they haven’t done since 2016. They are 8-1 ATS after division road games and 5-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a division contest. The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last games against the AFC North and 2-7 ATS in games when both teams were taking points last week.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating; 4 Units

After blowing last week’s 21-14 lead after two quarters, Denver has now lost an NFL record nine straight games where it has had the lead at halftime. Even with first-year NFL coaches just 1-9 this season, the value is all with Denver in this matchup. You can count on one thing in this game: Sean Payton is pissed, and somebody will pay the price. He is also 23-7-2 ATS in his NFL career against foes coming off a win. Finally, NFL Game Three underdogs coming off a pair of SU favorite losses are 16-2-1 ATS since 2003, including 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

This doesn’t scream Trojans blowout mainly because Southern Cal is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite of 15 or more, 0-3 ATS off rest the last two years, 1-6 ATS after allowing less than 10 points and 1-6 ATS in the front end of back-to-back road games. With Colorado looming, this may be a letdown game for Lincoln Riley’s squadron, Caleb Williams or not. Plus, ASU is 5-0 ATS in the last five in this series, 7-1 ATS as a home dog of 11 or more and 3-1 ATS in the 4th straight home game. Additionally, playing on any college football conference home dog of more than 18 points coming off consecutive home losses is 17-2 ATS.