Rating: 2 Units

Notre Dame is 14-6 SU in their last 20 Big Ten battles and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven, but use caution because they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus the Buckeyes since 1995. Also, don’t forget that Ohio State beat the Irish, 21-10, in the season opener at The Horseshoe last season, and the Golden Domers are 8-2 ATS at home with revenge.  The stats that will seal the deal with this one is the fact that home dogs who have managed to tally 40 or more points in each of their last THREE games in a row have gone 28-11 ATS in this role since 1980. Additionally, if these same home teams have won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games, they are 23-5 ATS in this role.

Rating: 3 Units

OSU West is a bad conference road favorite, going 1-4 ATS in the last two years. Meanwhile the Cougars have numbers in their corner: 6-3 ATS the last nine, 5-1 ATS in a third straight home game, and 5-1 ATS in the last six as a home dog. Game 4 has been good for WSU as they boast an 8-2 ATS mark. Finally, College football home teams in Game Four of the season are 18-9 ATS in a matchup of 3-0 teams, including 9-1 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Hogs got crushed last week in a stunning home loss against BYU last week but they actually outgained the Cougars 424-281 in total yardage. In addition, Arkansas Head coach Sam Pittman is 6-1-1 ATS on the road with revenge and the Razorbacks are 7-1-1 ATS away with conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not had the best of it in this series, going 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Finally, LSU is 3-11-2 ATS as a favorite in conference home openers, including 0-7-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more points

Rating: 2 Units

MSU is 4-7 ATS as a home dog and you must wonder what can be said to raise the level of both play and attitude around the program. It’s the third straight year UMD has started 3-0 and the stats are overwhelmingly positive. Maryland is averaging 471 YPG of offense and 299 YPG of defense. Taulia Tagovialoa has become Maryland’s all-time TD pass leader to add to his other records he is sharing and is likely to break.  Finally consider that teams playing off their first loss of the year, at home in this role tend to perform poorly going 145-1605-4 ATS overall since 1980. Additionally, if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss, they fall to 46-73-2 ATS. This week’s host is Michigan State. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-41-1 ATS. 

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Nick Saban’s is 28-3 record versus former assistants, including 2-0 SUATS when the Tide is coming off consecutive point spread losses by an average win margin of 24 PPG. Additionally,  if those assistants are undefeated, Saban is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against them. Saban is 9-2 SUATS in his career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, including 8-0 SUATS the last eight games. Finally, Nick Saban is 21-7-1 ATS in conference games when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, including 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win and 4-0 SUATS versus undefeated foes (by an average win margin of 30 PPG)

Rating: 2 Units

Wisconsin has dominated this series going 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS the last 16 meetings, along with a 7-2 ATS mark before a Week of Rest, and an 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS record on Weekdays. Purdue comes in with a 2-17 ATS mark as a home dog in games they fail to win. They are also 1-8 ATS of late in the second of 3 straight home games. 

Rating: 2 Units

San Francisco is one of two teams in the NFL this year that went from worst to first in their division last season. That’s not good news if you’re looking to back them as a favorite, as these teams are just 82-100-5 ATS overall since 2004, including 43-68-3 ATS as home favorites. San Fran is also 1-6 ATS in this series when coming off back-to-back wins. The Giants were one of four NFL teams to come back and win after trailing by double-digits last week. New York is 6-0 ATS as a dog after being a favorite in its last game, and 3-0 ATS on Thursdays the past three seasons, and 4-0 ATS before a Monday night game.

Rating: 2 Units

Mike Tomlin does not take to losing consecutive home games very well, where he is 8-1 outright in the get-even game. Tomlin is also 7-1 ATS the last eight games as a dog after a game where he was a dog, and 13-4-5 ATS as a home dog in his career with Pittsburgh. The Browns are feeling good about themselves after destroying Cincinnati at the Dawg Pound last week, however they are just 1-9 ATS when coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at Raymond James Stadium and 1-4 ATS in the first of a two-game homestand. The Bears are 6-3 ATS in the first of consecutive road games. Tampa comes into this one off a phony 20-17 win at Minnesota in which they lost the stats, 369-242, whereas the Bears were edged, 329-311, in total yards in their 18-point loss to the Packers. Finally, Tamp QB Baker is only 9-21-2 as a favorite in the NFL, including losing his last eight.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia HC Pederson is 16-12-1 ATS in his NFL head coaching career as an underdog when seeking revenge, including 4-0 ATS in the last four games. And Jacksonville brings a perfect 6-0 ATS home dog log into this contest – winning all six games outright! Consider that the Chiefs come in with a 2-7 ATS record in the last nine regular-season games against the AFC South, and are 1-4 ATS after a Thursday contest.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

 Seattle is 4-0 SUATS in this series, as well as 21-9 SU and 20-8-1 ATS when coming off a loss and facing an opponent coming off a win. In addition, Seattle’s head coach thrives against teams coming off a win from this division, going 11-3 outright in his career, including 5-0 when the foe is coming off an upset win. Finally, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 8-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points.

Rating: 3 Units

Steve Sarkisian became just the third former assistant to knock off Nick Saban. In the same vein, these same former assistants are just 1-6 ATS in follow-up contests when tackling .750 or greater foes. UT just 3-8 ATS at home before battling the Bears.  Finally, favorites of 16 or more points coming off an upset win over Alabama are 2-9 ATS since 1980, including 0-4 ATS if they were a dog of 7-plus points versus the Crimson Tide. 

Rating: 3 Units

Lane Kiffin has struggled at home in non-conference contests, going 8-13 ATS overall in his career, including 2-10 ATS at home when coming off a non-conference clash. We are concerned that Ole Miss had a tough time with Tulane last week without their star QB Michael Pratt. Kiffin saw his explosive RB Quinshon Judkins completely bottled up (18 carries for 48 yards) and could not put the Green Wave away until kicker Caden Davis hit a 56-yard field goal in the final two minutes. New Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key was a former Nick Saban assistant and knows the SEC, and his troops are averaging 41 PPG and are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats) to starts his tenure. We believe a take is in order tonight.

NCAAF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS in games in which both teams enter off an ATS win and 8-2 ATS as a home dog with a win percentage less than .666. Additionally, Home teams in Game Three of the season, who were in a bowl team last season and are coming off a road win that was preceded by a season-opening home loss, are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2017. Finally, Syracuse versus sub-.666 avenging foes, is just 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS in this role (0-11 the last eleven).

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Gators are 5-1 ATS in the last six, even with last year’s wild loss when UF was beaten 38-33 while a double-digit dog. UT on the other hand struggles early, their Game 3 record is an embarrassing 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in game three versus the SEC. After cake games versus FCS teams, the Vols limp around, going 1-5 ATS in the first game after an FCS opponent and in SEC openers, the Vols are also 1-5 ATS. Take them on the road and in games where the home team is seeking revenge, like this one, Tennessee is 3-10-1 ATS, including 0-6 ATS if the foe is coming off a win. Finally, Florida’s Bill Napier is 17-8 ATS as the underdog, including 3-0 SUATS at home.

Rating: 3 Units

Penn State is on a 13-2 and 11-3-1 ATS roll going back to last season and lands at No. 7 in this week’s AP Top 25, one of three Big Ten teams in the Top Ten. The Nittany Lions can also claim one of today’s biggest revenge motives, falling to the Illini, 20-18, as 24.5-point home chalk in their last meeting in 2021. PSU comes into this matchup, going 6-1 ATS the last seven as conference road favorite, 6-2 ATS with conference revenge, and 3-1 ATS in the last four series meetings. Finally, the visitor is 24-16 ATS in Penn State games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats are always ready, or at least it seems that way, having suffered through just one ATS losing campaign over the last 15 years. Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman has compiled a 28-14 SU and 25-13 ATS record since taking the job in Manhattan. A week ago, they took on a Troy team which exceled in the dog role, and promptly issued a 42-13 drubbing that goes along with a 375-76 rushing yards edge in the early going, with QB Howard an efficient 5/2 in the early going. The Tigers are annually figured as an upcoming force, but have had only 2 winning seasons over the last 8 years, & are in off a 17-pt ATS loss in narrow SU escape vs Middle Tennessee. 

Rating: 3 Units

Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins is 28-9-1 ATS when his team is coming off a loss and facing a greater than .400 opponent coming off a win, including 7-1-1 ATS within the first four games of the season. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in home openers the past six seasons, and 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS at home in Game Two of the season. Philadelphia comes into this one banged up defensively and defending Super Bowl losers standing 26-45-1 ATS as a favorite when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss, including 17-37-1 ATS when favored by 10 or fewer points.  Finally, Minnesota is 8-0-2 ATS as a dog of more than 6 points when coming off a SU favorite loss and taking on an opponent coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

This year’s Tigers look mighty impressive after their 2-0 start, but the truth is they crushed a pair of cupcakes, beating Bethune Cookman, 56-14, and Arkansas State, 37-3.  Navy comes in with a 7-1 ATS mark when coming off a home win, and 5-0 ATS road dog of late. Pair those stats with the Tigers’ weak 1-6 ATS record the last seven versus non-conference foes and a downright dismal 0-5 ATS failure when playing off a SUATS win, and we just can’t go against Navy this evening. To top it off, Memphis isn't the best of home favorites going 3-10 ATS.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Jets hosts division rival Buffalo sporting a long-term 8-5-1 ATS mark at home on Monday nights in division battles. They also bring a nifty 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS mark in this series into this contest, including 4-0 SUATS as a competitive dog of 4 or fewer points. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers enters on a nine-game win skein on Mondays. He is also 6-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. Finally, the Jets are 22-10-1 SU and 24-9 ATS of late, including 6-0 ATS in season opening games the past six years

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The architect of the Cowboys’ offense, Kellen Moore, who has moved on to take over the offensive coordinator duties with the Chargers in Los Angeles this season. Over Moore’s four years as offensive coordinator in Dallas (2019-2022), the Cowboys’ offense totaled the 2nd most yards (391 per game) and 2nd most points (27.7 per game) in the NFL. However, Dallas is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS away against quadruple avenging opponents, including 0-4 ATS in division games. New York is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS at home when seeking quadruple revenge, including 4-0 SUATS in division contests

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia will face the league’s toughest schedule, by measurement of each opponent’s projected season win total. By this criterion alone, teams carrying this sort of added weight have fallen short in the 6 years we’ve been charting the theory, going 47-41 SU and 40-46-2 ATS overall that season, including 10-24-1 ATS as a favorite. Remember, Philly faced the league’s softest schedule last season, and it helped land them a spot in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. Keep in mind as well that playing against the defending Super Bowl loser if they are away in Game One of the season is 15-2 ATS. Additionally, the Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games, look for the Hoodie’s 12-3 outright record at home in season openers to serve as a tall task for the Eagles.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is coming off 3 straight winning seasons for 1st time since 1997-2003 (7 straight). However, they lost 6 of their last 7 games in '22 w/ their only win being a TD-less 11-6 win over the Jets in week 18. 1-4 in games not started by Tua last year. Last we saw the Chargers, they blew a 27-0 2nd quarter lead in Jacksonville before going down 31-30. They are the 1st team in NFL playoff history to lose a game with 5+ turnover margin. Herbert , 2nd player ever w/ 25+ TD passes in each of his 1st 3 seasons (P Manning). He has more PY (14,089) than any player in NFL history thru 1st 3 seasons. However, the Dolphins are 9-2 ATS as AFC West dogs and 8-2 ATS in season openers, and the Chargers 1-10 ATS non-division home chalk of four or fewer points, and just 1-5 ATS versus the AFC East.

Rating: 3 Units

San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in season openers the last six years, and 1-6 ATS in games before facing division rival Los Angeles Rams. Additionally, NFL season opening favorites who win 15 or games last season are 2-10 ATS as road chalk of fewer than five points. Finally, Pittsburgh is 10-2-2 ATS as a non-division home dog log under Mike Tomlin, including 4-0-1 ATS against foes that won 14-plus game the previous season.

Rating: 2 Units

Saban’s record against former assistants is well-documented at 28-2 SU. What they don’t know is that he is 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS in those same games when favored by 18 or fewer points, including 4-0 SUATS at home. Add to that the fact that Bama is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS at home off a home game, while Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road tilts and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus SEC opponents, and this looks like a Crimson Tide win-and cover

NCAAF Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Broncos after owning the No. 2 rushing attack in the Mountain West last season under OC Dirk Koetter, BSU’s top two RB’s George Holani and Ashton Jeanty managed just 95 yards on 20 carries against Washington under new OC Bush Hamdan (a former Boise QB). Meanwhile the Boise defense, which was ranked 11th in the nation in 2022, was lit up for 568 yards by Michael Penix and his cohorts. But keep in mind that the Broncos have survived in the past. Boise is now cast into the rare role of a home dog where they are 5-3 SUATS in this role since 1999. Finally, Boise State is 21-0 outright in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one years.

Rating: 3 Units

Didn't take Sooners long to shake the dust from last year's losing season, with 14-0 lead over Arkansas St in 1st 2:22. A 642-208 yard edge (38-10 first downs) in 73-0 cake walk. Ponies return  16 starters, holding La Tech to 11FDs & rushing yards, &limiting Bachmeier to 1/1, but they've allowed 31+ pts 10 of their last 14 games. Statwise, they're close to equal, but when Okies get rolling! Consider finally, that teams coming off a 60 point-plus win are 25-10 ATS as a favorite in game two, including 17-5 ATS at home.

NCAAF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Texas A&M has gone 1-5 on the scoreboard, 4-13-1 ATS overall in road openers and 0-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points. They haven't done well coming off a big win, going 4-11-1 ATS off a 40+ point win when meeting a team better than a .400 record. Miami comes in at 17-4 SU and 14-6-1 ATS at home in a battle of undefeated teams. Miami has also done well versus the SEC when a dog against a team coming off a win, going 3-0-1 ATS. Miami has done well versus unbeatens, going 4-1 SUATS and 13-5 ATS. Finally, Miami is 13-5 SUATS as a non-conference home dog, including 5-0 SUATS the last five, and 7-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 3 Units

Tulane was 11-2 ATS last season, and 7-1 ATS in game two of back-to-back home games. At home, coach Fritz is 37-18 SU and 30-16-1 ATS in his career. Ole Miss showed no mercy to Mercer, winning by 67 and racking up 667 yards, but now it’s time to hit the road, and the visitors from Oxford aren’t very good when favored by a decent number. In 2022 they were 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 17 or less, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-con road games.  Finally, they are also 3-7 ATS off a home win of 14 or more and 2-5 SUATS in road openers. 

Rating: 3 Units

Opening week underdogs of 20 or more points who pull an upset revenge win have been known to disappear the following week, as these teams are 0-6 SU and 1-4 ATS, with only ONE of the aforementioned squads coming in as a favorite. That was Southern Miss in 1989, who returned home following its 30-26 road win as 22.5-point dogs at Florida State. The Golden Eagles laid 7 points to Mississippi State, then immediately proceeded to lose the whole game to the Bulldogs and drop out of sight. They finished the season 0-5 SUATS against non-conference foes while concluding the season with a losing record. Finally, Nebraska head coach Rhule is 29-12 ATS away in his college career, as well as 9-3 ATS as a single-digit dog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lions have struggled at 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-division games on Thursdays. We realize the defending champs were 7-3 SU but 0-10 ATS in one-score games last season, but evidence has it this should not be the case tonight. Not when you consider Andy Reid’s 6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division foes – with every win by double-digits. And note that the Chiefs are looking to become the third team to reach four Super Bowls in a five-year span, along with the 1990-93 Bills and the 2014-18 Patriots.

NCAAF Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Clemson comes into this one with a 1-7 ATS mark as a road favorite in season openers, and a 3-7 ATS log in its last ten games on this field. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley from TCU to overhaul the Tigers’ stagnant offense. Duke comes in 3-1 SUATS in its last four lined home-openers as well as 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season openers. More importantly, Duke was 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in Mike Elko’s debut last season. Finally, College football home dogs in season openers who return 17 or more starters are 43-16-1 ATS since 1990 if they won three or more games the previous season, including 12-2 ATS if they are a dog of more than 12 points.

NCAAF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games away from the Bayou when forced to lay points. Meanwhile, the Seminoles comes back with no less than 18 starters back from last year’s 10-win squad which improved on offense by 8 points and 104 yards per game, while the defense allowed 6 points less and 58 yards less per contest. They are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in this series since 1980, including 4-0 SUATS when facing an LSU squad that won six or more games the previous season. Finally, Florida State is 9-0-2 in 11 previous contests in Orlando.

Rating: 2 Units

OSU comes into this one 8-2 ATS in their last ten games versus MWC foes, and also closed the season on a 7-0 ATS run, thanks largely to a defense that improved 55 YPG. The Spartans were on the opposite side ATS finishing up 0-7 ATS their final seven games and it continued in a 56-28 loss to USC in Saturday night’s season opener. Former Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro threw 3 TD passes to WR Nick Nash against the Trojans and ran for an additional 52 yards on the ground. However, with SJSU just 1-26 SU in their last twenty-seven lined games against Pac-12 opponents.  To close it all out, consider that playing on any CFB away team as either a favorite or dog of fewer than 20 points in its season opener if they won 8 or more games last season and are facing an opponent coming off a loss of 8 or more points as a dog is 11-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

This Coast-to-Coast matchup features a Coastal team that doesn't do well in games where they are a big underdog, going 4-8 ATS when taking double digits.  UCLA comes in off a winning season but lost it's bowl game. Keeping that in mind playing on any college football team in its season-opening game if they lost straight-up as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points last season is a money making 50-33-1 ATS in games since 1990 – a rock-solid 60% winning proposition. In addition, when these same teams open the season at home and have won 15 or more of their previous 28 home games they are a winning 29-10-1 ATS, including 16-3-1 ATS since 2007.

Rating: 3 Units

WKU has brought in a pair of WRs from Auburn and Tennessee to join wideout Malachi Corley (led college football in yards after catch with 975 and missed tackles forced with 40), so look for W. Kentucky to add to a 5-1-1 ATS record in lined openers. South Florida has not faired well in each of the last three meetings, going 0-3 ATS against Western.  Additionally, they are 4-29 overall out-right their L33 contests. The Bulls are also on a 1-16 straight-up run which is why first-year head coach Alex Golesh is now in Tampa.

Rating: 3 Units

NIU is 30th in returning players and they’ve hung with BC in two losses, both by three points. In 2021 the Huskies won nine, last season they won just three times. We like the 2021 MAC champs to ride a healthy QB in Rocky Lombardi to connect with WR Treyvon Rudolph, more than three times, to keep this one respectable.  Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Hawaii returns to the Island with a 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS mark in their last ten lined home openers, including 6-1 ATS when taking points. Standford has a new HC and new CFB head coaches are 7-18-2 ATS in Game One with a team that won three or fewer games the previous season. Adding to HC Taylor’s issues is Stanford’s horrible 1-8 SUATS mark in its last nine road games. To finish it off, consider that Hawaii is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a home dog in Pac-12 games since 2010.

Rating: 2 Units

Florida edged the Utes, 29-26, as a 5.5-point home dog in last year’s season opener, however keep in mind that Utah HC Whittingham is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career when seeking revenge from a non-conference loss. He’s also 15-0 outright in home openers against non-conference opponents with an average winning score of 38-14. Florida’s Napier does bring a 17-7 ATS dog log into the fray, including 5-1 last season, but Utah looks to be so loaded.

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these teams struggled last season under rookie head coaches, but the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs clearly had the better offseason, bringing in a top notch quarterback in Bachmeier from Boise State and a promising receiver in Crawford from Nebraska. they also have more talent coming back, including two top receivers and their leading running back. Tech could seriously challenge for the Conference USA title so they should get off to a good start here. With the firepower they have, giving up 11.5 points doesn't seem like much. And for the Panthers, this could be another long year as they lost some key pieces. Take Louisiana Tech to cover the spread.

NCAAF Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Vanderbilt has been more than 7-point favorites in a season opener five times since 1980 and lost four games outright. They’re just 5-10 ATS as favorites of 14 or more points in nonconference clashes, including 0-4 ATS in the last four. Hawaii likely comes into this one seething from a 63-10 season-opening loss to Vanderbilt in Timmy Chang’s debut last year. A 9-5 ATS mark in season-opening road games works, as does momentum for a 6-1 ATS season-ending effort the previous year.

Rating: 2 Units

Former DC, Brian Newberry, takes over from Ken Niuamatolo after 16 seasons as the Navy head man on the sidelines. Newberry’s defense allowed a respectable 347.5 YPG in his four seasons in Annapolis. He does inherit 18 starters from last year’s squad. Consider that the Irish are only 19-28 ATS versus the military schools since 1990, including 13-27 ATS at home or on a neutral field. As an added bonus to this pick the last time the Navy endured three consecutive losing seasons, they won 8 games and went bowling. Finally, remember that Military football dogs of 20-plus points are 82-39-4 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Units

If there’s one team that has the Chiefs’ number, it’s the Bengals with three wins in a row – all by 3 points, and all as underdogs – in just over a year. It sets up a fourth meeting in 13 months between these two wishful squads. The pressure to extend the skein doesn’t bother head coach Zac Taylor, though. It’s his contention that, “We only have to beat them one time in a row.” Given Andy Reid’s 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS record in games with triple revenge (7-1 ATS at home), including 5-0 ATS at home off a win and 5-0 SUATS off an ATS loss of fewer than 4 points, we see one in a row coming to a halt today. Yes, we were as wrong as the day is long fading the Bengals last week as we fully expected their glaring lack of success against fellow playoff squads to bite them in Buffalo. Instead, the Bills’ resolve in over-relying on Josh Allen alone did them in as Cincinnati executed a perfect game plan. Today, though, trying to dispose of soon-to-be league MVP Patrick Mahomes is a horse of a different color. Mahomes’ 72 wins in the last five seasons is second only to Tom Brady for the most in any five-year span (77 wins from 2003-07), and he is 9-1 ATS in his NFL career when not laying points. Wobbly ankle and all, we’re not about to go against Mahomes.

Rating: 3 Units

A suddenly seasoned QB Brock Purdy is in deeper waters than he’s been in his young career, but thanks to a promise fulfilled by the San Francisco defense, he’s answered every demand made of him. However, playoff teams coming off consecutive SUATS wins who were bounced in a championship game the previous year (San Francisco) are 20-1 SUATS since 1985 as either a favorite or as a dog of less than 3 points versus foes off a SUATS win. 

Rating: 2 Units

Bengals QB Joe Burrow is now 4-1 SUATS in the postseason, including 3-0 ATS when taking points. He’s also 16-6-2 ATS overall as a dog, including 9-0 ATS the last nine games – not to mention 3-1 SUATS versus AFC East foes (favored in all), including 3-0 SUATS the last three meetings The real problem for Cincy, though, is the Bengals are now 1-6 In The Stats against fellow playoff teams this season, while losing the total yards the last three games against the same ilk over 100 YPG each (average 139 YPG). And their offensive line is down to two original starters with LT Jonah Williams out with a dislocated kneecap. Yuck. Nonetheless, form takes precedence over the trends. Lay the points.

Rating: 2 Units

When it comes to same-season double revenge for division teams in NFL playoff contests, they are just 7-13 SU and 9-10-1 ATS since 1990. But these same double revengers are 6-1-1 ATS as dog of more than 6 points. New York is 11-2 ATS dog log under Brian Daboll, and were involved in a league-high 14 one-score games, going 9-4-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in those contests, which goes hand-in-hand with the fact that a staggering 45% of games this season (122 of 271) were decided by 6 points or fewer – the most since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002. In the Eagles’ favor, playoff hosts are 37-10 SU and 29-18 ATS since 1990 when facing invaders coming off consecutive away games. And yes, like San Fran, Philadelphia owns the magic elixir when it comes to projecting Super Bowl participants, namely a Top 5-ranked offense and defense. So, while it’s hard to fade the league’s No. 1 overall defense, the points are too attractive for one team on a roll and the other on a slide.

Rating: 2 Units

Jacksonville is stuck in Kansas City against the top-seeded Chiefs knowing they are 0-3 SUATS against QB Patrick Mahomes. They also take on Andy Reid and his stalwart 29-6 SU and 22-13 ATS overall career mark in games with an added week of rest advantage, including 6-1 outright at home in the postseason. Reid will be going up against his former quarterback Doug Pederson, who was only 3-14 as a starting QB in the league but brings a salty 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS career mark as a head coach in the playoffs. We realize the Chiefs’ gaudy 0-10 ATS mark in one score games this season is troubling but we also know that 15 of Andy Reid’s 19 career postseason wins have been by double-digit margins. And Travis Kelce has to love the fact that the Jags were the 3rd worst ranked team in the league in yards per reception to tight ends

Rating: 2 Units

Prescott was 14-for-37, while the Cowboys’ rushing game averaged just 2.4 yards per rush on 27 total attempts in last week’s uninspiring loss at Washington. Note that Tom Brady is a 19-time division champion and is 7-0 outright in his career against the Cowboys. We realize that losing teams are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in the postseason, but they are 3-0 ATS at home. If fact, hosts are 6-0 ATS in games involving losing squads. Sealing the deal is the fact that playing against any away team in the NFL Wild Card Round of the playoffs if they are coming off a loss of 14 or more points (Dallas) is 14-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

The Ravens are 13-2 ATS away in same-season division revenge affairs. Meanwhile, a closer look at the ultra-hot Bengals shows they’ve been outgained in 5 of the 6 games they played this season against fellow playoff teams. Not good news for a team that was a Super Bowl Loser last year and considering they are 6-14-2 ATS in playoff openers when coming off win. Coupled with teams in right-back-same season revenge being 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS when coming off a loss of 5 or fewer points. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants return to the postseason for the first time since 2016 but bring a 22-8 ATS playoff record since 1982 into this scrum – including 15-4 ATS as a dog. On the fl ip side, the Norsemen are 8-17 SU and 9-15-1 ATS in the postseason since 1989, including 0-9 ATS when facing foes coming off a loss. Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins has made three starts in the playoffs during his NFL career, going 1-2 SUATS, including 0-1 SUATS as a favorite. Note that Wild Card round dogs of 3 or fewer points, seeking same-season revenge, are 12-4-1 ATS. With it, Big Blue certainly remembers dropping a 27-24 decision here just three weeks ago on a 61-yard field goal at the final gun, a game in which they outstated the Vikes by 92 yards. Look for the G-Men to improve on their 10-2 ATS dog log under head coach Brian Daboll. Go ahead and grab the points

Rating: 2 Units

The Fish have gone 0-4 SUATS in postseason games since and are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS on the playoff road by an average loss margin of 22 PPG. We certainly don’t want any of that, not in frigid Buffalo as the Dolphins are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS away in outside stadiums in January since 1990, as well as 2-14 SU and 3-13 ATS in Buffalo when arriving off a SUATS home win. You can rest assured the Bills will play the Damar Hamlin card throughout the postseason. In addition, Buffalo is the only team in the playoffs that out-yarded each of the other playoff teams they faced this season. With Bills Mafia backers 31-9-4 ATS in games Buffalo wins outright as a favorite behind Josh Allen.

Rating: 2 Units

AFC South champion Jaguars, the first team since the 2008 Dolphins to win a division the season after having the league’s worst record. Pederson also shines in the postseason, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS as a playoff dog. Coupled with the fact that Wild Card home pick or dogs are 12-3 ATS, look for the Bolts to short-circuit here.

Rating: 2 Units

Home teams in their initial NFL playoff game who lost at home in a conference championship game last season are 27-2 SU and 21-7-1 ATS in Game One in these contests if they won a dozen of more games last season. The Seahawks enter as one of seven playoff teams this year that missed the postseason in 2021. However, double digit dogs in the Wild Card round with same-season revenge are just 1-5 ATS – which makes for only one way to look here.

Rating: 2 Units

The fortuitous Bulldogs, who are 28-3 with QB Stetson Bennett behind center, will be looking to become the first team to repeat as a national champion since the inception of the CFP nine years ago. However, the double-digit line leaves some wiggle room for TCU backers, as the favorite in CFP championship games is 3-5 ATS all time, including 0-2 SUATS versus non-undefeated foes coming off a SU underdog win. Then there’s the 0-4 SUATS failure of the four defending champions who found their way back to the championship game the following season (see Alabama last year). Additionally, Dykes is 10-5 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when his team sports a .900 or greater win percentage and are taking on undefeated foes, including 7-0-1 ATS after scoring 39 or more points in their last game. Let’s also not forget that .750 or greater double-digit bowl dogs coming off a SU underdog win are 5-0 ATS the last fifteen years, and bowl dogs of more than 12 points are 7-0 ATS versus .900 or greater opponents the last ten years.

Rating: 2 Units

Detroit walks onto Lambeau Field having won seven of their last nine games, and at 8-8 on the season will not only need to beat the 8-8 Packers today but will also need the 8-8 Seahawks to lose against the 5-11 Rams. Sure, while this happening is unlikely, either way the 2022 season has been a resounding success for Dan Campbell and the Lions. Adding to the karma, the Lions are 9-0 ATS in their last nine division dukeouts, but the Packers are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS as a host in this series when Detroit is coming off a win. Given the fact that no team has ever made the NFL playoffs after a 1-6 start, and the Packers own the clearest path to the playoffs (they own the tiebreaker over Seattle), we don’t see them losing this contest. Covering it is another matter. 

Rating: 2 Units

What we know for sure is that the Bills’ mental frame of mind is not where it needs to be today. That and the fact they are just 6-16 ATS as a division favorite of 7 or more points, including 1-11 ATS versus greater than .250 opponents. With the Pats 6-1 ATS off a home game against foes coming off a road game, as well as 5-1 ATS when coming off a division home contest, we also know that Bill Belichick is 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS in final games of the regular season with New England, including 4-0 ATS as a dog. 

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Tom Brady is clearly programmed to break every NFL passing record in the book. In his best outing of the year – 432 yards and three TDs passing, one rushing TD – he completed 34 passes Sunday, adding yet another record to his seemingly endless collection. In the process he won his 19th division title, as the Bucs are now back-to-back division champs for the fi rst time in team history. Atlanta enters as a team playing out the string, just 2-6 SUATS and ITS in its last eight games while throwing green QB Desmond Ridder to the wolves. With the Dirty Birds just 2-13 ATS at home coming off a home game and Brady 3-0 ATS in his career as a dog in season finales, and finally NFL .500 dogs are 5-0 ATS in final games of the season when coming off a win

Rating: 3 Units

The fact of the matter is Stidham sliced up the NFL’s best defense. Given the Chiefs’ 0-6 ATS mark of late against sub .500 division foes, while also understanding since winning Super Bowl LIV, the Kansas City Chiefs are 2-27-1 ATS in one-score games, including 0-18-1 ATS against avenging foes., look for the Raiders to improve on their 9-1 ATS record at home against AFC West foes who are not coming off a win of more than three points. If that doesn't seal the deal consider that playing on  any NFL division home dog in its final game of the season if they were a playoff team last season and if they are seeking revenge from a .600 or greater opponent is 15-2 since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

The three-loss Utes actually improved their numbers on both sides of the ball in 2022; yet fell short of their targeted goal of being the fi rst PAC12 school since 2016 to make their way to the College Football Playoff. And while the Nittany Lions were never a real threat to make the CFP this season, they have a chance to close out the campaign with their fourth 11-win season in the past seven years with a victory against Utah today. It’s been a season of two tales for James Franklin’s troops who started the 2022 season 5-0 and closed it out going 4-0. The one thing that jumps off the page in this contest is PSU’s penchant for staying on a roll as they ride a jaw-dropping 16-3 SU and 17-1 ATS mark into this game when coming off a pair of SUATS wins. It’s numbers like those, and incentive to boot, that puts them on our playlist today. 

Rating: 3 Units

In his lone season at Oklahoma, Heisman Trophy winning QB Caleb Williams recorded 1,912 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 442 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in 11 games. This season with the Trojans, Williams threw for 4,075 yards, 37 touchdowns (tied for most in the nation), and four interceptions, while running for 372 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 carries. Consider that first year coaches favored in bowl games are just 16-32 ATS against foes coming off a win, and Pac-12 bowlers who allow over 25 PPG are 20-42 ATS, including 0-14 ATS the last 14. With that, finally review that the bowl team with the Heisman Trophy winner is 0-8 SUATS off SUATS loss since 1980. 

Rating: 2 Units

If Brohm DNA runs through brother Brian’s veins it should prove fruitful as big brother Jeff is 11-0 ATS as a dog when coming off a loss – including 10-0 with Purdue. Conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. The biggest hurdle the Makers need to get over is the lack of success by teams in bowl games that won as a dog of more than 6 points in a bowl game the previous season. Meanwhile, LSU enters behind high profile boss Brian Kelly who is 6-0 SU and 2-3-1 ATS in his career against Purdue. The bad news is BK is also just 5-8 ATS in bowl games, including 0-3 ATS when favored by 7-plus points. So, while a huge coaching mismatch is in the making, the fact also remains that the Tigers were one win from capturing the SEC championship and will likely look at this contest as little more than a full uniform scrimmage. Expect the ‘Brohm factor’ to lead to another payday

Rating: 2 Units

All things being equal, we’d be ordering up a big fade against the Bulldogs in this bowl game were it not for the sudden passing of Leach, and the feeling here is the effect of the Grim  Reaper’s presence will outweigh any notion of “winning one for the Gipper”. Don’t consider an Over play, either, not with Illinois owning the nation’s No. 1 Scoring Defense (12.25), and the Bulldogs holding four opponents to season-low yardage in 2022. The bottom line is we see Illinois playing up to the standard of excellence they achieved the season in a big win for head coach Bret Bielema.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

USA TODAY called out the fact that the Jets handed the Jaguars a Christmas gift two years ago when they foolishly rallied to defeat the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20, just before Christmas and granting them access to QB Trevor Lawrence as the No. 1 overall draft pick. Talk about a gift that keeps on giving to Jacksonville, it’s one that may well haunt the Jets for the next 10-15 years. What may also trouble the Big Planes today is their recent 7-16 SU and 5-18 ATS record in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 1-10 SUATS versus greater than .400 foes. That fits perfectly into the Seahawks’ 10-0 ATS record in home games when coming off consecutive underdog losses. Then there is head coach Pete Carroll, who is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in January, including 4-0 SUATS with a losing record and 4-0 SUATS versus sub .600 foes – and our favorite holiday ‘Caroller’ has also never lost four consecutive home games. Finally, consider that playing on any NFL non-division home dog or ‘pick’ if they are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games is 112-82-7 ATS since 1980. Better yet, put these non-division hosts up against a sub. 500 foe in this role and the black ink turns a deep shade of green, going 35-19-3 ATS, including 16-1-2 ATS when they sport a win percentage over .100 and were a dog of 6-plus points in their last game.

Rating: 2 Units

Jags enter 13-6 ATS in games with quintuple-plus division revenge as they have now lost 9 straight times to Houston. Unlike years past, Jacksonville controls its playoff destiny, as a loss here will not matter since next week’s home contest against Tennessee will ultimately decide the AFC South title. What arguably matters more is head coach Doug Pederson would like to extend the Jags win skein to four in a row. But the fact of the matter is each of their last three wins came in underdog roles and today they change clothes. Teams in this role are just 7-16-2 ATS since 1999, including 3-11-1 ATS from Game Ten out. So, while Jack’s muscles are bulging at the moment, we can’t ignore the elephant in the room, namely that the Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS against foes coming off a SU underdog win.

Bowl Game of the Year

Rating: 5 Units

This will be Georgia’s third time playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season, with the Bulldogs dominating both Oregon and LSU by a combined margin of 99-30. In addition to a virtually impenetrable defense, veteran QB Stetson Bennett is complimented by a three-headed rushing attack featuring RB with Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, and Kendall Milton, who have all rushed for more than 500 yards in 2022. Meanwhile, OSU receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka just might be the best receiver tandem in the country for Heisman finalist QB CJ Stroud. Yes, bowlers like UGA who allow fewer than 14.5 PPG that won their conference title game are 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS all-time, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS against foes who allow 14.5 or more PPG.

Rating: 3 Units

No Alabama, Tennessee, Clemson, Utah, etc, but the only 4 teams in the land with less than 2 losses (Michigan & Georgia, the only perfect squads. When Harbaugh took over the reins at Ann Arbor in '15, great things were expected, & realized with 7 straight bowl seasons, with 42-27, 45-23 wins over archrival Ohio St L2 yrs, but couldn't close the deal: 0-5 SU/ATS (-8, -15½, -30, -11½, -15½ pts) in L5 bowls. TCU Horned Frogs were hosed from the playoffs in '14, despite their 11-1 log, proving it with 42-3 (-3½) Peach Bowl rout of Ole Miss. Frog QB Duggan (2nd in Heisman voting) at 30/4, with Wolves' McCarthy at 20/3. No RB Corum (1,436 yds) for Mich, but note UM's #3 "D" vs Tcu's #74. Take the TD. 

Rating: 2 Units

Always an unusual season, when the Crimson Tide of Alabama is not a participant in the Final Four Playoffs (just the 2nd time in 8 seasons). Years of excellence continue on, scoring 30+ pts in 46 of their last 53 games, with their only SU losses TY: 52-49 in L0:00 at Tenn, & 32-31 on 2-pt OT conversion at Lsu. Heisman winner Young: just 2/0 & 1/1 in those losses. Can 'Tide prepare properly for this, after such close misses, along with multiple transfer portal cases? Kansas State Wildcats took TCU for Big12 Title in OT. QBs Howard & Martinez are more than capable, as is the 2nd coming of Darren Sproles in Deuce Vaughn. Take the TD.

Rating: 2 Units

It took Dabo Swinney the entire season to pull the plug on erratic starter D.J. Uiagalelei for Cade Klubnik, a former 5* recruit for the Tigers. Swinney must have informed all parties concerned that the move was permanent, causing Uiagalelei to immediately hit the transfer portal. For the Vols from Rocky Top, backup QB Joe Milton, who transferred in from Michigan, takes over for Hendon Hooker, who was enjoying a marvelous season until suffering an ACL tear against South Carolina. Tennessee does boast the No. 1 ranked offense in the nation (538 YPG), but that was largely behind QB Hooker. In addition, WR Jalin Hyatt, who won the Biletnikoff Award, is undecided. We know the Volunteers have played on some big stages this year, but this sort of thing is ‘been there, done that’ for the Tigers, as Swinney stands 29-9 ATS away off a double-digit SUATS win, including 12-1 ATS the last 13. Both teams have played their share of undisciplined football in 2022, but Tennessee takes the trophy as the nation’s No. 124 team in most Penalties Per Game (8.00). Yes, we know Clemmie is just 3-4 ITS (In The Stats) in its last seven games of the season; however, that’s not enough to keep us off the striped cats.

Rating: 2 Units

First-year coaches favored in bowl games are 16-32 ATS vs. foes coming off a win, including 2-12 ATS against those off a SU underdog win. Uh oh. Then there’s the matter of Notre Dame’s negligent 7-15 SUATS failure in its last 17 bowl games, including 3-14 ATS vs. foes off a win. And we wouldn’t be doing our job if we left out this damning stat: the Irish are ranked No. 129 in Red Zone Defense, worst of all bowler. Head coach Shane Beamer owns a solid 6-1 ATS record vs. non-conference foes and his team won four games SU as underdogs this campaign. Head coach Marcus Freeman will have the Irish back in the thick of it before long, but it’s a little early to back them here considering SC has gone 6-2 SUATS in its previous 8 bowl games.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a cross country trip for the U.C.L.A. Bruins & the Pittsburgh Panthers, but that didn't keep them from facing each other 14 times, many in season openers, from 1958 thru 1972, with the Bruins holding a 9-5 edge. For Pitt, this makes it 13 bowls in 15 years (4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS), while for the Uclans, this is their first such holiday affair since '17 (35-17 Cactus Bowl loss to Kansas St). Similar seasons for these 2, with Bruins reaching 9th in the polls off their 6-0 start, flattening out, with nary a cover since Nov 5th. Panther in a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) windup, but have lost QB Slovis, as well as AA DL Kancey. Simply cannot ignore such significant turns.

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland is staring down some ugly ATS numbers here: 1-6-1 SUATS as a bowler if not favored by 3 or more points, sub .600 bowlers off a shutout win are 1-7 ATS, and head Terrapin Locksley is a back-in-the-shell 3-39 SU and 15-27 ATS versus a foe with the better record. Yikes. The bad news for State is its miserable 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) record versus bowlers in 2022, but with Doeren boasting a 6-0 ATS record in bowl games versus a foe off a SUATS win, and the Pack having cashed a ticket in 10 of its last 13 bowls, we’ll back DD over Mike Locksley any day of the week.

Rating: 3 Units

These 2 powers meet for the 8th time; first since '11, & 5th in a bowl, including the '00 Orange, when the Oklahoma Sooners (+10) beat the Florida Sate Seminoles 13-2, for the National Championship (Stoops' first year). By the way, the 'Noles entered that one with a 42-10 ppg edge. This makes it 26 straight bowl years for the Sooners (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS L10), while the Sems entered TY off 4 consecutive losing seasons. But 18 returning starters have turned it around, with a 5-0 windup (43.6 ppg), ranking 13th & 14th in total "O" & "D". Last 3 of Okies' 6 losses have come by just 3 pts, but cannot hide a "D" which ranks 120th in the land. 'Noles!

Rating: 2 Units

For P.J. Fleck, it was also a tale of two cities, especially on offense, as they averaged 543 YPG in their first four games of the season and 335 YPG in their last eight. However, his stop unit held up their end of the bargain, finishing 5th in the nation in Team Defense. Still, we feel this number is a bit too high, since Syracuse is 13-3-1 SU and 13-4 ATS in bowl games since 1988. For head coach Dino Babers, there will be some adjustments with OC Robert Anae leaving for NC State, but quarterbacks’ coach Jason Beck has been promoted to the position after doing a great job overseeing QB Garrett Schrader this season. Besides that, the most interesting match-up at Yankee Stadium will be the running backs, with Sean Tucker recording his second straight 1,000-yard season for the Orange and Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim notching over 100 in each of his first 11 games. QB Tanner Morgan was always the weak link on the Gopher offense, but with Athan Kaliakmanis taking over, Minny should be in good shape. Finally, here is an obscure fact you might consider: Bowl favorites off a win of 7 or more points are 0-6 ATS on Thursdays.

Rating: 2 Units

A 1-4 finish with losses to LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl showed Lane Kiffin he still has plenty to accomplish in Oxford. Bowlers coming off 3 SU losses are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS versus a foe off back-to-back SUATS wins. Conversely, TTRR enters on a 3-0 SUATS win skein to close the season. That’s the good news. The bad news is, like a grim reaper, that bowlers coming in on 3-0 SUATS win skein are 9-27 SU and 8-28 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a SU favorite loss. Worse, the Techsters were outgained in all three of the wins, and not to pile on, Texas Tech is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games.

Rating: 2 Units

We feel like this is a lean to the Heels, since the underdog is 7-0-2 ATS in Tar Heels/Pac-12 contests and conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. However, be aware that UNC is 0-4 SUATS in bowl games when they allow more than 25 points. Oregon’s recovery from that pounding they took from Georgia in the opener was remarkable, but the campaign lost its luster after losing to Washington in November and a total collapse against the Beavers in the Civil War finale. That drives us into a take here.

Rating: 2 Units

For the Pirates, fifth-year senior QB Holton Ahlers completed 67.1 percent of his passes this season for 3,408 yards, tossed 23 touchdowns compared to fi ve picks, and he also rushed for 5 TDs. The Pirates will not have NFL prospect TE Ryan Brown for this game, as he has opted out to prepare for the draft, but Ahlers will not be without his top two targets: wide receiver Isaiah Winstead recorded 82 catches for 1,012 yards, while C.J. Johnson will enter the bowl game 67 yards away from his first 1,000-yard receiving campaign. The Chanticleers’ rough finish may be of concern to some, but it might work to their advantage, as conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. Take the points

Rating: 2 Units

Looking back, we realize that the Aggies go from the top of the mountain after capturing the Mountain West title and winning the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl game to this minor bowl game. Their star player this season was speedy RB Calvin Tyler, Jr, who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs. Keep in mind that Mountain West bowl teams are 5-0 SUATS against the AAC and Anderson is 4-1 ATS himself on the road versus AAC foes. We don’t figure them to win this game, but the points are simply too good to pass.

Rating: 2 Units

Bulls were a “mission team” in 2022 after last season’s 4-8 effort snapped a three-year bowl skein. Following an 0-3 start, they went on to win their next 5 games before hitting the skids again with another 3-game losing streak. They literally rallied back with a late 23-22 win over Akron to cement this bid, a game that was postponed by the 6 feet of snow that fell on Buffalo in mid-November’s monumental storm, then rescheduled due to its importance for the Buffalo program. Comparing spread records this season versus bowl teams, Buffy was 5-1 ATS, while GSU was 1-4 ATS against bowlers. Our money is on the Bulls

Rating: 2 Units

We realize things are looking rosy for the Chargers, who close out the campaign against three 4-win lightweights in the Colts, the Rams and the Broncos. The Bolts are 4-0-1 ATS away Mondays, and 12-2-2 ATS away versus AFC South. On the other side of the bed, the Colts are 0-3 ATS home on Mondays, 1-7 ATS after scoring 35-plus points, and 1-7 ATS as home dogs 4 or fewer points. However, while it all looks like an avalanche of evidence working against the Colts, the Chargers are still a team that cannot blow out opponents, only winning one game all year by more than six points, and that came back in Week 4 against the awful Texans. Look for the Horseshoes to toss a surprise ringer tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Like NMSU, the Bee Gees closed like a racehorse, winning four of their six games to earn a bowl bid for the first time since 2015. They dropped 4-touchdown losses early in the season to UCLA and Mississippi State, but once MACtion got underway, the Falcons went 6-2 in conference play. To be quite honest, if you look at the statistical ranking of the Falcons, you might be surprised to find out that they actually qualified for a bowl game, since the Bee Gees rank 105th in offense and 106th in the nation on D. We also look at Kill’s excellent record versus MAC foes: 20-7 SU and 16-10-1 ATS, including 18-2 SU if that opponent is .500 or below. With that, we’ll look for the Aggies to notch a win in only their second bowl game since 1960.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucs’ six wins this season, the last five have been against losing teams a 26-44 winning record combined. Through it all, the GOAT who refused to hang ‘em up when he had the perfect opportunity, leads a team that is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite, 1-7 ATS last eight games on Sundays, 1-5-1 ATS versus NFC West foes and 1-5 ATS versus sub .400 opponents. Sheesh. While the Cardinals may be going thru the motions, at least they bring a 9-1 ATS log as home dogs of more than 2 points, and a 4-0 ATS record in this series.

Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

For the first time in over two-and-half months the Pack finally have a winning streak. The Cheese Heads are the No. 10 seed in the NFC, currently 1.5 games behind the Commanders for the NFC’s final wild-card spot. Green Bay enters 6-1 ATS as a dog in games when favored last game. Miami returns home off a winless three game road trek knowing they are 0-4 ATS coming off three straight road games, as well as 0-4 ATS when coming off three losses. And that’s not to mention the fact they are 1-5 ATS as a host in this series. With Rodgers suddenly smelling playoff blood, know that he is 9-4-1 ATS as a dog from game 15 out, including 6-0-1 ATS when the Packers own a win percentage of .666 or less.

Rating: 2 Units

Aztecs (7-5) were two different teams this year -- one before Mississippi State transfer Jalen Mayden took over at quarterback and another after he got the job from Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister. Prior to Mayden's insertion, San Diego State went 2-3 and averaged just 19 points per game with an inefficient passing attack. With Mayden running the offense, the Aztecs posted a 5-2 mark and scored 23 points per game. Mayden has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 1,721 yards and 10 touchdowns, giving the offense some big-play potential it didn't have in recent years. He has thrown seven interceptions. Aztecs coach Brady Hoke said the bowl trip is a reward for his team and also a chance to win the last game of the year. To cap it off, MTSU was mugged in games against fellow bowlers this season (0-3 SUATS and In The Stats). 

Rating: 3 Units

The Cowboys, who have clinched a playoff berth, are 6-12 outright in Prescott’s NFL career in games in which he has more turnovers than touchdown passes, including 0-3 SUATS this season. The problem today for the Cowboys, though, is Dallas is just 2-10 ATS and 4-8 ATS at home in this series when Philly sports the better record. Yes, there are a lot of back-and-forth numbers bandying about in this fray, but until Dallas improves its to 8-25-1 ATS mark as a home favorite when coming off a loss, we’ll be flying with the Eagles. Especially knowing that Dallas is 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS at home on Saturdays during the regular season since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Vikes have clinched the division and a playoff spot s0 can they thwart the path of others looking to earn their playoff stripes? Owning the league’s 32nd-ranked (worst) defense, they concede all of the defensive numbers to the Giants in this contest. Minny has been out-yarded in 5 of their last 6 games and are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven games against NFC East opponents. With the G-Men barely clinging to the No. 6 spot in the NFC playoff pictures, and 7-1 ATS on Saturdays, look for Big Blue to improve on its 7-2 ATS mark as a dog under rookie head coach Brian Daboll. Grab the points.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Currently the Pats are the No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff picture but they must close out the season against the likes of these 10-4 Bengals, 8-6 Miami, and 11-3 Buffalo. Thus, it starts today against a Cincinnati squad who enters just 7-29 SU and 12-22-2 ATS away against the AFC East, including 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. Yes, the Hoodies need to roll up their sleeves and get to work against a Joe Burrow-led Bengals’ bunch on an AFC best 6-game win skein. However, consider that playing against any NFL team that is 6-0 SUATS in its last six games if they are facing a sub .700 non-division opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

It has been a wildly uneven year in Lafayette, LA, but give props to Coach Michael Desormeaux for holding together the shards left by Billy Napier’s departure to Florida. UH triumphs if Clayton Tune is hitting the scales and avoiding the sour notes. The Cougars QB has 37 TD passes, tied with the top two Heisman candidates – winner Caleb Williams and third-place CJ Stroud, but has thrown a pick in his last four games. UL’s offense is more balanced, having 15 players with 100 or more scrimmage yards this season, tied with SMU and Texas Tech. Discipline (sometimes) and emotion versus balance makes for an intriguing matchup.

Trevor Lawrence is a kind of unhinged Justin Herbert with a more imaginative offensive coordinator, making them extremely dangerous behind a head coach whose been there and done that. Since Week 9, Lawrence leads the NFL in passer rating (111.2) and completion percentage, having thrown 14 touchdowns and just one interception. Those are numbers Jets’ head coach Robert Saleh would die for these days. And speaking of dying, Saleh completely blew last week’s game when he mismanaged a full array of three timeouts with under two minutes remaining in last week’s puzzling loss against the Lions. Despite the Jags’ putrid road record (2-21 SU in their last 23 away games), we’ll rely instead on playing against any NFL .500 favorite off a loss in Game Fifteen of the season, that's because teams in this situation are 16-45-4 ATS in this role dating back to 1980. Worse, send these .500 choke artists home off a loss and they fall to 7-28-2 ATS. And if these same teams are facing a sub .500 opponent they are a heart-stopping 2-19-1 ATS in this role since 1980. So look for the Jags to continue their winning ways at the expense of the league’s biggest quarterback bust since the days of JaMarcus Russell: Zach Wilson.

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The military teams take advantage of success, going a combined 29-9 ATS when coming off a win. AFA is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 bowl games and in addition to being stingy at giving the ball back, they carry the top overall defense in the country. This bowl game is to honor the military and they give back by going 6-3 ATS in the last 9, including 4-1 ATS as the dog. Meanwhile, Da Bears are a sub-standard 0-3 SUATS as single digit favorites while the Big 12 has been small ATS versus military teams, going 0-3. If you are a trend lover, BU is 3-14 ATS on Thursdays plus this game is at TCU’s home field, where Baylor has lost five of the last seven, both SU and ATS. If that’s not a strong persuader, consider that Playing on any greater than .667 college military team in a bowl game that scored fewer than 50 points in its last game if they are not off a loss and their team’s overall net Yards Per Rush is greater than 1.0. is 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

WKU has scored 45+ points in four bowl games since 2014, most in FBS during that span. WKU QB Austin Reed, who turned down new Louisville Head Coach Jeff Brohm’s request to transfer, meaning Reed is returning to the Hilltoppers with his 4,247 pass yards and 36 TDs. While Reed may not know this, sticking with Coach Tyson Helton can pay off, since Tyson often puts foes in a corner, going 18-5 SU and 16-6-1 ATS vs. a team off an ATS defeat. WKU is generally good at putting money in people’s pockets with a 3-0 SUATS mark versus the devilish .666-win percentage types and 13-2 ATS as a dog vs. the Fun Belt. Meantime, South Alabama is seeking the first bowl win in program history. The Jaguars are a toothless 0-2 SUATS in bowl games and have also struggled versus C-USA, going 1-3 SUATS against .500 or better.

Rating: 2 Units

Toledo won the MAC for Head Coach Jason Candle but MACtion seems to run out of steam after November. Toledo is 3-9 ATS in bowl games since 2002, including 1-7 ATS off a win of 7 or more points. MAC Bowlers are 6-28 SU and 8-25-1 ATS vs. foes coming off a loss. Liberty has a much more distinguished post-season history, going 3-0 SUATS, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS versus MAC opponents since joining FBS. 

Rating: 3 Units

Rested home teams on Monday Night games are 25-12 ATS when coming off a SUATS win, including 19-7 ATS as a favorite of 4 or more points. Toss in the fact that the Pack is 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in this series since 2007 and you can see where we’re headed. Our QB League check is reminding us that Aaron Rodgers is 23-12-3 ATS in his career against NFC West opponents while Mayfield is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in his last five games when coming off a win. We seal the deal with the fact that future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-4-1 ATS when coming off a Bye week in his career, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Armed with one of the top defenses in the country, Marshall will take on a surprisingly improved UConn team in the Myrtle Beach Bowl on Monday in Conway, S.C. UConn (6-6) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. Before losing their regular season finale to Army, the Huskies had a stretch of five wins in six games, capped off by an upset victory over then-ranked No. 19 Liberty. And who did the Huskies play in that 2015 bowl game? Marshall.  The Thundering Herd (8-4) have been a regular attendee during bowl season recently. This will be the 11th time in the past 14 seasons that Marshall has gone bowling -- a streak that began in 2009 and stretches across three head-coaching tenures. The Herd have lost their last three bowl games, though, and are looking for their first postseason win since 2018.  To clinch this pick consider that Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game while Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

NFL Upset of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Bengals are 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games, and that may sound good to Joe Public, but not to the savvy handicapper as non-rested NFL teams on a 5-0 SUATS win streak have puked as non-division favorites of 5 or fewer points, going just 10-20-1 ATS in this role. On the other side of this hardto-like take are the Bucs, who were totally throttled in last week’s 28-point loss at San Francisco. It doesn’t get much worse than that. In fact, it was the third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career. And adding more misery, it occurred at the hands of 7th round rookie QB Brock Purdy. By now we all know of Brady’s jaw-dropping 11-1 ATS career mark as a home dog. But don't forget that Tom Brady is 16-3 SU and 18-1 ATS as a pick or dog off a loss in his NFL career, including 10-0 SUATS off a loss of more than 7 points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Broncos have been installed as favorites for the sixth time this season, bringing with it a tawdry 0-5 ATS mark as chalk under head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Yes, it’s Colt McCoy time once again for Arizona, and for our money he’s more than welcome. That’s because he is 3-1 SUATS as a starter with the Cardinals. Coupled with Kingsbury’s 14-9 SU and 16-6-1 ATS road dog log with Zona, including 9-0 ATS versus losing foes. 

Rating: 2 Units

Las Vegas is 1-7 ATS mark when coming off a SU favorite loss, as well as 1-8-1 ATS versus AFC East opponents, and just 1-5 ATS when tackling foes coming off a Monday Night contest. Meanwhile, The Hoodie brings a razor-sharp 9-1 SU and 7-2 ATS career mark in games against any team wearing a Raiders helmet, while winning all four times in games in which the Pats sport the better record.

Rating: 2 Units

This is not a matchup that NFL fans would have circled on their calendars heading into the season, but it is going to be an electric atmosphere on Sunday. I would rather fade the Jets than the Lions right now, especially with some of the injury issues that New York is dealing with, most notably to White, who is out for this game. Detroit’s offense has been among the best in the NFL all year, and the Lions have gotten even better of late. They have covered the spread in six straight games and are the pick to cover the number on Sunday.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence, has over the course of his last three games sport a 111.7 QB Rating with 0 INTs. Meanwhile, the not-so-big news in the Dallas receiver room is that WR TY Hilton will be joining the Cowboys, not Odell Beckham, Jr. The feeling here is OBJ may still be in play for America’s Team, but not until he’s able to take the field. Yes, the Boys are confident, riding an 8-game ITS (In The Stats) win skein entering today’s game. But we can’t ignore that playing against any sub .800 NFL non-division road favorite coming off three straight home games from Game 11 out is 12-1-1 since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Buffalo pulled a win-no cover against the Jets last week, (Miami 0-6 ATS off SUATS loss versus a win-no-cover foe) and now own a one-game lead over the Fish. If you got to see that game, you know the weather in Buffalo was miserable – and it’s going to get worse tonight. All of which spells trouble for the Floridians. Hey, it’s bad enough that they have to play a third straight road game, where they are 1-6 SUATS in this role of late, but it’s borderline criminal to send them up into the arctic-cold of a city that may as well be in Canada. Buffalo QB Josh Allen will take time out from his busy commercial shoots to take care of a little business, namely revenge from a loss to Miami back in September. With the Bills now 5-1 ATS playing at home off a home game, look for the Dolphins to go down again.

Rating: 2 Units

History is not riding with the Ponies as they are 0-5 ATS as a front-runner plus 0-3 SU all-time in this series. SMU is also 0-4 ATS versus foes off an ATS win, and 0-6 UNDER on a neutral fi eld. It’s Mustangs’ boss Rhett Lashlee’s first bowl game as a head coach, and first timers are 16-32 ATS vs. teams coming off a win. BYU is 5-0 ATS as a dog off three wins and 5-1 ATS versus a .500 or better AAC team not coming off consecutive wins, plus Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake is a stern 16-7 ATS when a dog of 12 points or less. He will be without star RB Lopini Kotoa but is holding out hope his number one QB Jaren Hall can play on a bum ankle. Finally, BYU is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS vs. foes with an identical record, including 5-0 when the Cougars are coming off a SUATS win.