Rating: 2 Units

Mack Brown is a soothing 7-2 ATS with the Heels against rested foes, including 5-0 ATS the last five. Word out of Coral Gables is there is more wrong with this Miami team than just QB Tyler Van Dyke, who has lost a ton off his fastball and is missing wide receivers at an alarming rate this season. The honeymoon appears to be over with 1st year head coach Mario Cristobal after the shocking loss to Middle Tennessee, which won’t be helped by his 4-8 ATS record when coming off a SU favorite loss. Most important, playing against any college football favorite coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 20 or more points if they’re facing a .400 or greater foe is 44-25-2 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas is 1-3 ATS in quadruple revenge games. Also, the Horns have been the dog in each of the last 13 games in this series, which makes the Sooners a dog and we simply can’t ignore these ill-at-ease underdogs as the Oklahoma Sooners are 19-1 SU in games off a loss in which they allowed 36 or more points when facing sub .750 opponents. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 2-10 ATS as a favorite in his career off a SUATS win when facing a .500 or greater foe, including 0-8 ATS If his team scored fewer than 50 points in the win.

Rating: 2 units

Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm is back in his groove as a dog of 4 or more points where he stands 21-6 ATS. Meanwhile, Maryland’s 4-1 SU start under head coach Mike Locksley is no mirage, as the Terps are the only team to actually threaten Michigan with defeat this season. Unfortunately for Maryland, coach Locksley has an 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS mark in his career versus foes coming off consecutive wins. We liked the way Brohm’s bunch handled the pressure of the big stage against Minnesota, and with 77 YPG the better defense, we’re back on the beat with the Boilermakers this week. 

Rating: 2 units

Teams who beat Oklahoma are 4-12-1 ATS the following game as a favorite versus opponents coming off consecutive wins. KU is also 6-2 ATS in its last eight series meetings with the Frogs, and the series host has cashed five of the last six tickets. Consider that 5-0 teams in Game Six tend to do well as dogs, going 56-35-2 ATS overall. Additionally, when they take on an opponent that scored 48 or more points in its last contest, they skyrocket to 16-3-1 ATS.  With TCU just 2-6 ATS of late as a Big 12 road favorite or road dog of 4 or fewer points, We'll take Kansas.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Kelly has been a home hero, going 18-7 SU at home versus undefeated foes, including 13-3 in games in which his troops allow fewer than 21 PPG. LSU is also 5-1 ATS versus conference opponents with rest, and 15-8 ATS as a home dog when coming off an ATS loss, including 4-0 SUATS over the last four. Last week’s win over Auburn was ugly, as Kelly’s team fell behind early, 17-0, before getting it into gear. Tennessee has solid wins against Florida and
Pitt, but the Vols are just 2-7 ATS in Game 5. Finally, consider that the Vols are 3-11 SU and 1-13 ATS when both teams were favorites in their last game, including 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in SEC games.

Rating: 3 Units

Brady has yet to get going because of a cluster injury problem to the Bucs’ offensive line and wide receiver corps. The Buccaneers are getting healthier in those areas. Mike Evans, Brady’s top target, comes off suspension. The Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS following a loss since Brady came on board in 2020.  In addition, the GOAT’s is a stellar 11-1-1 ATS all-time as a home dog

Rating: 3 Units

NFL home teams in Game Two of a three-game home stand, coming off a SU underdog win, are just 6-10-1 ATS versus non-division foes, including 0-3 SUATS when favored by fewer than three points. Toss in the Panthers’ 2-6 ATS record in the second of a three-game home stand and suddenly we’ve got the makings of a wobbly home favorite. To clinch the selections, Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury is 14-4-1 ATS as a road dog during the regular season with the Cardinals, including 7-0 SUATS the last seven games.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Given the fact the Jags, with their new head coach Doug Pederson, are 0-10 ATS in the second of consecutive away games, they are also 0-4 ATS against the NFC East. On the other side of the coin, Philly is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the AFC South. All good numbers in the Eagles’ favor, for sure. To cap all of this off, consider that playing one any NFL non-division home team in Game 4 if not favored by more than 7 points vs. a foe that scored more than 24 points in its last game is 17-3 ATS since 1980.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating; 4 units

Both teams are 4-0 on the season, this marks the Wolfpack’s first ACC tilt while the Tigers bring a 2-0 conference record into this affair. Recent ATS history offer full support to Clemson here, as they are 7-1 ATS as conference chalk of 8 or fewer points, plus the series host has cashed in three of the last four. That’s pretty strong considering State’s 1-7 ATS failure as a dog of 8 or fewer points, and a 1-4 ATS mark playing away from Raleigh after a non-conference home game. Most important, though, is the fact that the Wolfpack tripped up the Tigers, 27-21, as 10.5-point home dogs last season. With Dabo revenge in play here, we’ll lay the points as he has excelled in conference games when seeking revenge, going 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS in his career, including a perfect 6-0 SUATS as a single-digit favorite.

Rating: 3 Units

Northwestern has won the stats in every game they’ve played this season. The Lions find themselves laying more than 3 TDs for the third time in the last four games, and they’re currently 0-5 ATS as conference favorites of 18 or more points. In fact, head coach James Franklin has struggled as big chalk, going 9-12 ATS as a favorite of 24 or more points, including 2-7 ATS in conference games. After 16-plus years at the helm in Evanston, head coach Pat Fitzgerald has seen it all, and he knows his team has gone 5-1 ATS of late in their initial Big Ten road games of the season. The line hasn’t moved much from the PSU -25.5 opener, so we’ll grab the big points as Northwestern looks to improve to 5-0 ATS away after three straight home games. 

Rating: 2 units

Game Four rested teams who find themselves seeking revenge are 38-15 ATS in conference games when coming off a double-dig win. This week we find Oklahoma State fitting the bill. Better yet, put these rested revengers up against with foes coming off a win of 6-plus points and they zoom to 23-5 ATS in this role. 

Rating: 3 Units

Ole Miss’ run success has been impressive, but Kentucky should be able to at least slow it, as they allow 3.7 yards per carry and three scores to date. That should force the Rebels to throw more than they’ve shown, and we think they haven’t shown it because they either aren’t confident, or aren’t capable. Consider that the Rebels are 0-3 ATS vs Double Conference Revenge, and strangely 3-10 ATS in the second of back-to-back games at the Oxford campus.

Rating; 2 Units

Game Four of the College Football season is often times a critical stepping-stone for teams who play with a week of rest. This is especially true for teams that are either playing at home off a win, or in conference games when seeking revenge. These reinvigorated home teams take the field off a win with a week of rest in Game Four of the season, they are a super-strong 99-67-2 ATS overall since 1980, including 21-9-1 ATS when they sport a .333 win percentage. Army finds itself in this desirable role on Saturday. And better yet, they improve to 14-3-1 ATS in this role when coming off a win of 17-plus points, including 8-0 SUATS in they won 8 or more games last season.

Big-10 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The 23 points given up by the Hawkeyes in their first four games are the fewest scored on the team since 1966. In addition,  Iowa will be looking to avenge last season’s loss to Michigan,42-3, in the Big Ten title game. things to consider are that College football home dogs like Iowa, who won 10-plus games the previous season, are 3-0 ATS in Game Five versus undefeated foes playing their first road game of the season. Additionally,  4-0 College football favorites in their first road game are 1-7 ATS since 1980 in Game Five versus foes coming off consecutive wins.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lobo demise (9-41 SU, 10-27-1 ATS) may have actually crested with last week's 38-0 loss to LSU, with a stat debacle that saw 28-2 FD, & 633-88 TY deficits. Over its last 13 lined games, New Mexico has a 379-120 pt shortage, with its lone cover this season coming against a Unlv squad that turned it over no less than 7 times. Rebels have turned their spread fortunes around, with current 11-4-1 ATS run, covering their last home game by 28½. Lobos with just a 2-TD spot are a definite go-against in this.

Rating: 3 Units

Huskies look like they’ll be among the finalists for a berth in the season-ending Pac-12 championship games, our biggest concern is this is their first road outing after opening the season with four straight games at Husky Stadium. Another problem for DeBoer is the Bruins’ recent series domination, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS at home, including 4-0 ATS as a dog, as well as 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with a win percentage of .700 or greater. UCLA practically matches the Huskies in the stats, with each team gaining 500-plus yards and surrendering less than 300 yards this campaign. Washington is also a horrible 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games with conference revenge. Additionally the Huskies are 3-9 ATS  as Pac-12 road chalk.  Finally, 4-0 College football favorites in their first road game are 1-7 ATS since 1980 in game five versus foes coming off consecutive wins.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami showed their true grit knocking off everyone's AFC Darlings, the Bills. Tua toughed it out after slamming his head off the turf in the 1st half & Hill & Waddle are just so dangerous, with Tua Tagovailoa questionable, the Dolphins may have to turn to Teddy Bridgewater, who would bring a 23-9 ATS career mark as an underdog starter into the game. Additionally, the Dolphins 5-2 vs Cincinnati.

Rating: 2 units

Giants’ wins has been by a field goal or less. This is the first time since 2016 that the Giants have opened the season 2-0. They hosted division rival Washington in the third game in 2016, when as a 3.5-point favorite they lost, 29-27. Dallas enters with an 8-2 ATS mark the last ten games in this series, as well as 7-2 ATS in its last nine appearances under the Monday Night lights. With Big Blue just 1-8 ATS in games when seeking “double revenge”, look for the G-Men to fall to 2-8 SUATS in games when coming off consecutive wins here this evening.

Rating: 3 Units

QB Trey Lance is out for the season with a broken ankle, it will likely prove to be the best thing that could have happened for head coach Kyle Shanahan and his troops, given Jimmy G’s 37-18 SU and 33-21-1 ATS career record as a starter in the NFL, including 25-11 ATS in game when not favored by more than 5 points. With Frisco 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference roadies, we’ll go mining with the Niners tonight.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Green Bay’s is 14-2 ATS in games after battling the Bears, along with the Pack’s 9-5-1 SU and 10-5 ATS record in games when seeking “double revenge”, including 10-2 ATS versus .333 or great foes. On the other side of the coin, the Bucs are 2-8 ATS at home against foes seeking “double revenge”, as well as 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in Game Three’s of the season. Finally the Packers are 11-2 SUATS with a sub .750 win percentage under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 4-0 SUATS when seeking revenge.

Rating: 3 Units

The Ravens’ task this week, if they are up to it, is to pick themselves back up off the canvas. It should prove difficult given the fact that playoff teams last year (read: Patriots) who are dogs in Game Three are 12-7 ATS against opponents coming off a SU favorite loss. Toss in Bill Belichick’s 33-17 SU and 40-20-1 ATS career mark with New England against foes off a similar SU favorite loss – including 4-0 ATS as a home dog . Finally, Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh owns a 3-10-3 ATS career mark as a favorite when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 0-9-3 ATS when favored by 3 or more points.

AFC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Matt Ryan now owns a 63.9 QB Rating with the Colts. The saving grace is his 11-5 SUATS career record against AFC West opposition, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog. On the opposite side of the field, the 2-0 Chiefs – the only undefeated team in the AFC West – enter with a Super Bowl grudge rematch on tap at Tampa Bay next week. Kansas City’s 1-5 ATS record in its last six AFC South skirmishes, and the Colts 6-1 ATS log when coming off a division road. Finally NFL home dogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS, including 10-0 ATS versus .466 or greater opponents.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

K-State has covered the last three matchups in this series, and head coach Chris Kleiman is 7-2 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points, including 4-0 ATS when taking more than a dozen points. There is no question that the Wildcats have struggled offensively this season, but the loss to Tulane last week was truly an aberration for star RB Deuce Vaughn, as the diminutive junior failed to score a TD for the first time in 10 games. Kleiman’s defense, however, is very good. Consider , teams playing AWAY off their first loss of the season find point spread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 139-106-7 ATS dating back to 1980. When these teams are also off an ATS loss (Kansas State), they improve to 121-78-4 ATS in these situations. And if these teams are coming off a SU favorite loss they ratchet up to 69-35-2 ATS, including 38-13-1 ATS as a dog, in addition to 31-10-1 ATS against a foe coming off a SUATS win – and a 20-6 ATS combo as a dog against foes coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rebels have tied their win total from last year already and now get to try to take revenge after last year’s last minute loss. USU hasn’t shown the excellent pass attack that drove them to success in 2021 as they are 115th in passing yards and 119th in yards per play. QB Luke Bonner’s YPA has dropped from 8.4 to 6.4 and he has a 3-3 TD-INT ratio.That could be a big problem because if Utah State’s rushing defense continues to be as bad as it has been, he won’t be able to dig them out of a hole. They are 126th in rushing defense at 240.7 ypg allowed and 102nd in yards per play allowed. UNLV’s two top RBs each average over 6 YPC and have shown big play ability. Add in a QB completing over 70% of his passes at a 9.1 YPA clip and you have a tough mountain to climb for the Aggies.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Gators own a huge statistical edge in this series, going 5-1 SUATS the last six meetings, 11-1-1 ATS in Game 4, and a whopping: 16-1 ATS in the last 17 games against Tennessee. The Vols are 0-4 SUATS in Game 4’s, and 1-8 ATS as SEC home favorites of 10 or more points. Tennessee is also 6-8 SU and 4-10 ATS at Rocky Top coming off a home game, and a depressing 0-5 SUATS against SEC foes coming off a win. To cap it off Florida is 14-2 SU and 14-1-1 ATS in this series when Tennessee is coming off a win of 10 or more.

Rating: 3 Units

Auburn's first major test was a miserable failure last week, as the 41-12 loss to Penn State was the Tigers’ fifth straight to a Power Five team. Tigers have not had a single defensive takeaway this season through three games. Harsin is 6-11 ATS when favored and coming off a loss, including 2-7 ATS at home. Consider that home teams coming off their first loss of the season is 139-154-4 ATS since 1980. And if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss they fall to 45-69-2 ATS. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-39-1 ATS. And when these same teams are taking on conference foes and coming off a loss of more than 21 points, they bottom out at 10-26 SU and 10-25-1 ATS. 

Rating: 3 Units

Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney just signed a new contract extension worth big bucks, and he knows his team can overcome a slow start to get back in the CFB Playoff discussion. Swinney stands 48-5 SU and 34-18-1 ATS in conference games when coming off a win of 20-plus points and an ATS loss, including a 19-5 ATS record away. Consider that Wake has fallen asleep as a home dog against foes coming off consecutive wins, going just 3-34 SU and 10-27 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Broncos hit the highway for the third time in four games tonight surrendering just 230 YPG (No. 10 in the nation), pretty amazing when we consider that Boise State is usually known for its high-scoring offense. Game Fours have worked out well recently for them, who are on a 4-0 SUATS streak with an average win margin of 21.5 PPG. A 1-10 SU failure in Game Fives won’t work here for the Miners, not when they’re 0-6 ATS in this series, and just 23-54 ATS in home losses as an underdog.

Rating: 2 Units

NFL teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a double-digit win in Game One, are just 101-124-12 since 1990. When facing foes coming off a SU favorite loss they are 17-37-2 ATS – including 4-16 ATS as non-division chalk. Titans will not enter tonight’s contest lacking confidence, having upended the Bills as underdogs in each of the past two seasons. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last ten Monday night appearances. With Buffalo 0-4 ATS at home on Mondays and 0-3 ATS after playing on Thursdays. Finally consider that Tennessee HC, Vrabel, is 13-3 ATS as an underdog of 4 or more points with 12 outright wins.

SNF Game of the Month

Rating; 5 Units

Rodgers has made a living at home in his career with the Packers, going 69-38-4 ATS overall, including 27-12 ATS in division games, as well as 28-9-2 ATS when hosting foes coming off a SUATS win. Green Bay is 20-3 SU and 18-5 ATS in this series since 2011, including 8-0 SUATS when coming off a loss. To clinch it, Green Bay is 9-0 SUATS in regular season games when coming off a loss under head coach Matt LaFleur.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating; 3 Units

The Lions have been underdogs in each of their last 25 games. Washington is 19-10 ATS as a small dog of 3 or fewer points, including 10-1 ATS when coming off a win.  Detroit is a dreadful 6-19 ATS record as a home favorite when coming off a home game, including 0-5 SUATS when favored by fewer than 3 points. To cap it off, consider that NFL Hard Knocks teams from the preseason (Lions) are 22-36-1 ATS as a pick or favorite in Games 1-8 of the regular season, including 1-13 ATS when not favored by 3 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS after Patriots’ performances, as well as 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in Game Two of the season. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in games before New England, while also going 9-1 ATS in this series, and 6-0 ATS at home versus the AFC East. Additionally, NFL away teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a double-digit win in Game One, are just 17-35-2 ATS when facing a foe coming off a SUATS win. 

NFC Division Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Tom Brady comes into this one with a 2-7 ATS career mark when taking to the road as a favorite when coming off a road win after beating the spread by double-digits in his last game including six straight losing tickets in his last six tries. Additionally Tampa is 1-6 ATS away in games with double revenge. Consider as well that New Orleans is 7-1 ATS the last eight games in this series, and 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as conference home dogs versus .800 or greater opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

UTSA is 20-8 SU under Traylor, with only two losses by more than 14 points. He is also 18-5 SU in games in which his team has an equal or better overall record than the opponent, including 6-2 ATS as a dog. Consider as well that Traylor is  is 17-9 ATS with this team, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS away versus non-conference foes. 

Rating: 3 Units

MSU is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games versus the Pac-12, as well as 1-8 ATS in Game Three’s when coming off a victory. Huskies are 5-1 versus the number as non-conference chalk of less than 10 points, 9-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in Game Three, and 12-1 SU and 8-4-1 ATS as a host versus Big Ten opposition. Hang at home with the Huskies. To conclude, if the 2-0 teams managed to beat the spread in each of their first two games, they’ve gone on to beat the spread only 47% of the time in Game Three. And worse, if they are on the road they fall to 66-90 ATS.

Mismatch of the Week

Rating: 4 units

Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS at home in this series and this 6th most experienced team in the nation. Meanwhile, Marshall has struggled on the road when they visit the MAC, going 11-25-1 ATS and 1-5 ATS when coming off a win where they beat a 21 point plus spread. In addition,  double-digit ATS winners that are 2-0 road favorites slip badly the following week, going 3-10 ATS the past five years in game 3’s. Consider as well that playing against any college football favorite who upset Notre Dame in its last game if they beat the spread by 17 or more points in the win is 12-1-1 since 1992.

Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating; 5 Units

Coach Bryan Harsin after a rough first season, is 27-7 in his first four games of the season and Auburn is 10-2 ATS as home dogs against undefeated foes. Nittany Lions leader James Franklin is 3-10-1 ATS away vs a team coming off back to back wins. PSU being 2-7 ATS vs. the SEC is another reason we’re going with the Tigers.

Rating; 3 units

Finally a decent game from the Hoosiers, behind 155 rushing yards from Shivers. But that was vs Idaho, so note being held to 32 rushing yards s vs Illinois. Indy on 2-12 ATS run, with both covers by a single point. 'Toppers on an 8-1-1 spread run, & 10-1 SU skein (41+ pts 10-of-11 games).

Rating: 2 units

I know that's a lot of points to lay on the road, but who is going to stop Air Force this season on the ground. They struggled last week with three turnovers against Colorado and still managed to put up 41 points. Having an experienced quarterback like Daniels is crucial to the option offense. There's no defense that he hasn't seen in defending the option. Wyoming has played three games already and is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Falcons are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after crushing Colorado last week 41-0 as a 17-point home favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

Chargers held Derek Carr to a passer rating of 69.1 while sacking him five times and picking off three passes. So the Chiefs face a much sterner test in this early AFC West Division match up. Herbert brings a 2-0 SUATS career ledger at Arrowhead Stadium into this contest and that catches our attention. The visiting team 13-4 ATS the last seventeen games in this series.  I am not willing to back Kansas City in this spot. There is almost always going to be value on the road underdog when they are facing a team that the public loves.

Rating: 2 units

Playing against any  NFL Monday Night favorite in Game One of the season we would have won the money 67% percent of the time, as these Monday Night favorites are 32-27 SU and 19-39-1 ATS since 1980. When the Over/Under total in the game is 41 or greater points, they fall to 25-22 SU and 12-34-1 ATS, including 4-17-1 ATS in division contests. Finally, with the Broncos’ 5-10 SU and 3-10-2 ATS mark in their last 15 Monday Night contests, the points become the play in this one.

NFL Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Bucs are 1-6 ATS as non-division road chalk and 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games against NFC East foes. Looking to the opposite side of the field we find Dallas at 7-0 ATS in its last seven home dog roles, and 4-0 ATS versus the, NFC South. To cap it off consider that an NFL pick or road favorites who won 13-plus games last season are 19-32-1 ATS in season openers, including 0-4 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 50 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Colts’ track record during Week 1 is absolutely dreadful – 0-7 ATS the past seven years. They’ve lost their last five openers by an average of 16.2 points. This includes an 0-4 SU and ATS Week 1 mark under Frank Reich. If laying more than a touchdown opening week during Weeks 1 and 2 the past 10 years, the Colts would be 2-18 ATS. Judging by preseason, Indianapolis doesn’t look ready again this year. Matt Ryan is the team’s new quarterback. He’s past his prime and has yet to display chemistry with his new receivers, who are mediocre at best. In addition, the Texans are 6-2 in Game Ones at home, and 10-4 ATS as division home dogs of 9 or fewer points.

Rating: 2 Units

Washed-up Joe Flacco is not a quarterback worth betting on. Flacco hasn’t been good since helping the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory – and that was 10 seasons ago. The Jets scored the fifth-fewest points in the league last season. Their defense even worse, surrendering the most points in the NFL. Since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, the Ravens have scored the fourth-most points trailing only the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Saints. Baltimore went unbeaten during preseason again. The Ravens lost in overtime to the Raiders in last year’s opener, but were 5-0 SU and ATS during their previous Week 1 games with their average win margin being 30.2 points. 

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Steeler head coach, Mike Tomlin makes winning division games a priority, going 65-29-1 in his career – including 10-4-1 in first division contests of the season. Additionally, playing against NFL any division road team not favored by 8 or more points in Game One of the season if they lost in the Super Bowl game last season is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1988.

CFB Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Cougars are 15-7 ATS in home openers, including 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS as a favorite of more than 2 points. The host in this series winning and covering the last three matchups, while BYU is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Big 12 opponents. To clinch it, Baylor is 2-10 ATS in its first away game of the season, including 0-6 ATS when not favored by more than 14 points.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

With at least four games to come against ranked opponents, last weeks loss deals a major blow to the Eagles’ path back to bowl eligibility under 3rd-year coach Jeff Hafley. A long-term 18-7-1 ATS record as conference road dogs since 2013, including 7-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a loss, plus a series spread mark of 8-3 ATS in the last eleven games (4-1 ATS in the last five) means it's a BC call tonight. To seal the deal consider that beaten bowlers in Game Two who lost their season-opening game as a favorite are 54-72 ATS in these games, and if they happen to be seeking revenge in this contest, they dip to 8-17 SU and 6-19 ATS in these frays – including 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS if they scored 24 or fewer points in the loss.

Rating: 4 Units

West Virginia, the Mountaineers are recovering from losing the Backyard Brawl last week to Pitt. The numbers are not favorable for head coach Neal Brown, whose seat is heating up more rapidly each passing week. Try 7-11-2 ATS as a home favorite of 9 or more points on for size, including 3-8-2 ATS at home. If that is not enough consider that Game Two bowlers off a season opening defeat when laying points, are just 107-117-2 ATS. To make it worse, if these teams are facing a conference foe that is coming off a loss they dip to 7-18 ATS. 

Rating: 4 Units

One of these 2 teams has an offense, & it ain't the Hawkeyes, who finished 121st in the nation in that category last year. How about Iowa's opening 7-3 win over So Dakota St was the first time that a team scored 7 points with no accompanying TD in forever (1 FG & 2 safeties). The Cyclones have been a premier dog play, standing at 23-9 in that situation over the past few years, & have unveiled QB Dekkers (25-of-31 last wk). Revenge.

CFB Play of the Day

Texas is a  paltry 2-9 ATS in its last 11 SEC wars, and not after gaining just 383 total yards in the blowout of ULM. In addition, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 1-10 ATS in games when both teams are coming off a SUATS win if his team scored 35-plus points in its last game. To cap it all off when coming off a season-opening win of more than 44 points, AP Preseason No. 1 ranked teams (Alabama this season) are 7-0 SUATS in Game Two since 1980 – by an average score of 49-8.

Rating: 3 Units

We’ll stick with UCF’s 6-1 ATS mark of late as home chalk of fewer than 7 points, as opposed to Louie’s 2-9 ATS dog log in that same price range. . In addition, beaten bowlers in Game Two who lost their season-opening game as a favorite become sluggish propositions in Game Two. That’s confirmed by their 54-72 ATS mark in these games, a role in which Louisville, will find themselves this week.

Thursday Blowout

Rating: 4 Units

Rams are 5-0 SUATS Game One of the season the last five years, while head coach Sean McVay is 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS during the first three games of the season in his NFL career, including 7-1 SUATS at home. With public support overflowing for the Bills, we consider that fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs during the first six games of the season since 1980.

NCAAF Play of the Day

4 Units

Kelly hasn’t exactly been an ATM early in the season, going 0-3 ATS in season openers the last three years, and 5-13-2 ATS in the first three games of the year versus foes that won 5 or fewer games the previous season,  including 0-5 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points. Meanwhile, Norvell is 16-9 SU and 11-7 ATS versus non-conference opponents, including 7-0 ATS the last seven contests, and 7-1 ATS during the first three games of the season.

Rating: 2 Units

North Texas HC Littrell is a solid 8-4 SU and 7-3-1 ATS record at home when coming off a win. There’s also the fact that SMU has taken out the N. Texas three straight years, making this a triple-revenge affair for UN – a role in which N. Texas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in since 2017. In the same vein, teams in Game One of the season are 0-4 ATS since 2000 when facing a foe coming off a win seeking triple revenge when not favored by more than 10 points.

5* CFB Blowout

The tale of the ATS tape tonight doesn’t strongly favor either side. Ohio State is 34-1 SU in season openers, including 22 wins in a row, and 4-0 SUATS of late in the series (average win 15.5 PPG). The Irish counter with a recent 14-5 SU record versus Big Ten opponents, and in the last 115 games in which ND has tackled the Big Ten, they’ve lost by more than 17 points only 10 times. The bottom line is this many points is simply too much to pass up with a quality team like the Irish. Buckeyes win on the scoreboard, but Notre Dame cashes the ticket.

Rating: 3 Units

Utes are just 4-9 SU in one-score contests the past five seasons, including 1-6 SU on the road. They’re also 1-5 ATS as non-conference favorites the last four years, numbers that pale next to Florida’s 3-0 ATS run as a home dog, and its 3-0 ATS effort against the Pac-12. Consider that new Florida head coach Billy Napier is 12-6 ATS as a dog, including 7-1 SUATS as a dog of 5 or fewer points.

NCAAF Game of the Week

5 Units

Appalachian State stands 11-1 SU at home under third-year head coach Shawn Clarke, and 32-3 SU on the Mountain since 2016. FYI: the Apps are also 40-11 ITS (In The Stats) the last four years, including 21-3 at home. To seal the deal, consider that Appalachian State is 23-1 SU in regular season games in which they win the stats the past two seasons.

Rating; 3 Units

Head coach Karl Dorrell revamped his offensive coaching staff with four new hires. Despite Dykes owning a money-burning 8-17 ATS as a road favorite, including 3-16 ATS the last nineteen outings, the public is still enamored with the Horned Frogs (now at -13.5). But with a Rocky Mountain high home field advantage, looks for the Buffs to trade scores with TCU and keep the game tight throughout.

Rating; 3 Units

The Hoosiers gave up 384 yards of offense per game, as the Fighting Illini are going to have multiple opportunities to score throughout this game. Tommy Devito and Chase Brown carried their offense last week, as I wouldn't be surprised if they went off in this one again. Indiana also gave up 33.3 points per game. This was the most in the Big Ten, as I don't see their upgrades completely changing this team. They still have a long way to go and I loved the way the Fighting Illini looked against Wyoming. I understand that they are a weaker opponent, but the offense was humming and they were putting pressure on the opposing quarterback. They will do that again in this one, as Illinois will be able to keep the Hoosiers off the scoreboard for the majority of this game.

Rating: 3 Units

West Virginia is 9-3 SUATS away in the series, including 5-1 SUATS as underdogs. By comparison, Pitt has posted a 1-6 SU effort versus Big 12 opponents, and a 2-6 ATS record as a non-conference favorite of 8 or fewer points. To cap it off, Coach Brown’s solid 14-7-2 ATS mark as a road dog tells us West Virginia can keep this one close.

NCAAF Upset Special

Nevada has managed to win only seven of its 26 games away from Reno by more than 10 points the past four seasons – and those were all with bowl teams. New NMSU head coach Jerry Kill takes over for the Aggies. His presence alone guarantees an uptick in NMSU stock this season. Kill is 7-1 SU in home openers in his college career, with the only loss coming by seven points. Consider that Aggies head coach Jerry Kill is 17-8 ATS as a double-digit dog in his career, including 6-1 ATS at home (6-0 ATS the last six).

Rating: 2 Units

There is no refuting the fact that the Rams were expected to be the stronger team at the start of the season: the season win-total posted at the Westgate Super Book was 10.5 as opposed to Cincinnati’s 6.5. But the Bengals have closed the gap, as the 4-point spread in this game matches the difference of the two teams’ preseason win-total differential. So now Burrow can become the only quarterback to ever win a Heisman Trophy, a National Championship, and the Super Bowl with a win on Super Sunday. That’s a lot of pressure, but JB9 is indeed a Super Freak and appears to be up to the task in what should be another nail-biter to conclude a 2022 postseason of thrilling games. To cap it off, consider these facts: Burrow is 15-14-1 SU and 19-10 ATS with the Bengals, including 13-6-1 ATS as a dog (13-2-1 ATS +2.5 or more points) and 15-14-1 SU and 19-10 ATS with the Bengals, including 13-6-1 ATS as a dog (13-2-1 ATS +2.5 or more points).  Finally Cincinnati has tackled 9 playoff squads this campaign, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS, for a net -92 yards. Los Angeles has faced 10 playoff teams, going 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS, +83 net yards.

Rating: 2 Units

Not to overstate the obvious, but Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan has become Sean McVay’s Kryptonite, going 7-3 SUATS in head-to-head games, including six straight wins, along with a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in games in which the 49ers sport a .333 or greater win percentage – as well as 6-0 ATS between the 7s (as a favorite or a dog of fewer than 7 points). The Niners, playing in their 17th conference championship game – the most in NFL history – escaped single-digit snowy weather at Lambeau Field last week when the Packers’ Achilles heel (it’s special teams) struck again at the worst possible time, allowing a blocked punt for a game-tying touchdown with under five minutes remaining. QB Jimmy Garappolo finished 11-of-19 for 131 yards and a pick to improve to 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS as a dog in his NFL career – including 12-2 ATS as a dog of fewer than five points. The concern today is Garoppolo has yet to toss a TD pass this postseason (to go with 5 INTs), posting a sub 90 Passer rating in each game. However, he is 4-1 in the playoffs, and his shiny new toy, badass wide back Deebo Samuel, is a threat to score on any play. Given the fact that playoff teams coming off consecutive underdog playoff wins are 15-8-1 ATS, including 12-4 ATS since 1990, there is only one way to look in this ‘Superman special’.

Rating: 3 Units

Since 1980 there has been only one team to score 40-plus points in back-to-back playoff games – Buffalo in 1991. The Bills scored 19 points and lost their following playoff contest straight up as 7-point favorites against the Giants in the Super Bowl. Finally, note that NFL playoff teams coming off an overtime win in the postseason are just 6-10 SUATS since 1980. With Kansas City lugging along a 2-16-1 ATS mark in one-score games the past two seasons, a take is in order.

Rating: 3 Unit NFC Divisional Dominator

The Packers are 41-12 SU and 34-19 ATS under head coach Matt LaFleur, including 24-3 SU and 19-8 ATS at Lambeau Field. And speaking of losing, LaFluer also holds down a fortuitous spot where the Green Bay Packers have never lost consecutive games under head coach Matt LaFleur, going 9-0 SUATS when coming off a loss. Speaking of which, QB Aaron Rodgers does not take kindly to losing, going 45-19 SU and 42-21-1 ATS in games when the Packers are coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games against foes coming off a SU underdog win. Plus, he’s got a triple playoff revenge chip on his shoulder from a 0-3 postseason mark against the Niners. On the other side of the field, Dallas sabotaged a potential victory with 14 penalties, paving the way for San Francisco’s appearance today – yet none of them equaled a nonsensical quarterback draw without any timeouts that blew up in the Cowboys’ faces when the game clock expired before they could run another play. As a result, Dallas fell to 3-11 SUATS in its last fourteen postseason games. While the Niners were very good to us last week, we don’t see the Packers gift-wrapping 14 penalties for them this week. With NFL Division Round teams coming off a SU Wild Card underdog win just 6-30 SU and 13-23 ATS since 1998, including 1-14 SU the past nine seasons, we’re forced to go turncoat today, as we become Packer backers.

Rating: 2 Units

If the Rams have a legitimate MVP candidate this season it would be WR Cooper Kupp. During the first 16 games of the season, he connected with QB Matthew Stafford 138 times, the third most in NFL history. And he led the league in receiving yards and touchdown receptions. However, in order for the Rams to move forward they need Stafford dialed in like he was when he opened the season 8-1. Since the start of Week 9, he has thrown the NFL’s second-most interceptions (11), including 4 pick-sixes. And he has never won a playoff game. Flipping the script, after a 7-0 start that had many thinking they would be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Cardinals finished 4-6, and in a wildcard spot. The good news is after losing defensive lineman J.J. Watt to a shoulder injury in Week 7, it appears he’s ready to return for the playoffs. His return would be most welcomed, especially given the fact that the Cardinals were 8-2 SUATS away this season. Noting the Rams’ 2-5 SUATS and 1-6 ITS (In The Stats) record this season against fellow playoff squads, as opposed to Arizona’s 5-2 SUATS and ITS marks against the same, it appears the wrong team just may be favored here today.  Finally consider that playing on any .600 or greater team in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs if they are seeking same-season revenge is 17-5 ATS since 1990. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Chiefs couldn’t have handpicked a better opening round opponent this Wild Card weekend. They’ve allowed an NFL worst 7.6 yards per play in the past two weeks. Over the same span, the Steelers have averaged 4.0 yards per play on offense. Kansas City has surrendered 12.9 PPG over the last eight games of the season. Pittsburgh has averaged 297.6 YPG over the same span. After starting the season 3-4, the Chiefs enter this contest on a 9-1 overall win skein, meaning they are surging at the right time. In fact, Kansas City is 19-3 SU and 13-8-1 ATS from Game Twelve out the past three seasons. Toss in Patrick Mahomes’ 27-1 SU and 16-11-1 ATS mark in his last 28 games during November, December, and January, and you know who will be advancing on to the divisional Round of the playoffs next week. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is just 4-4 in its last eight games, losing the stats in seven of those contests. And in his last four games, QB Ben Roethlisberger has posted QB Ratings of 80.1, 56.2, 73.4 and 80.1. Yikes. That would find most starters on the bench in this league. Furthermore, Big Ben is 1-6 SU with only two ATS covers in his seven career starts as a dog of 7 or more points, while the Steel City’s 2.2 PPG in the 1Q is the lowest in the league this season – KC’s 7.6 is the best.

Rating: 2 Units

Ever since the league first expanded the playoff field to 12 teams, and began seeding them in 1990, at least four new clubs have reached the postseason every successive year. The 2021-22 lineup features seven (50%) new teams – and two of them lock horns here, while also including the likes of the Cardinals, Bengals, Raiders, Patriots, and Eagles. After a 2-5 start, the Niners won eight of their final 10 games to qualify for the postseason, beating three playoff teams in the process. That’s a pretty strong body of work. Since the 49ers began using WR/RB Deebo Samuel extensively in the backfield in Week Ten, Samuel has been one of the NFL’s most unstoppable offensive weapons. He tied for the league high with 11 touchdowns over that span, and ranked No. 4 in yards from scrimmage (1,006). On the other side of the ball, since Dallas QB Dak Prescott returned to the lineup in Week 9 the offense has sputtered. Prescott ranked No. 11 in Total QBR in Weeks 1 to 6, but only No. 17 in Weeks 9 to 17. Worse, the Cowboys have beaten up on Washington and Eagles backups lately. Complicating matters, Jerry’s Boys are the worst team in the loop in Penalties Per Game (7.5) this season. Yes, Dallas was 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in conference play this season, but the Pokes are just 3-10 SUATS in the playoffs since 1997, including 1-6 ATS as a favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

Defending Super Bowl champions have fared well at home the following postseason when coming off a win, going 13-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS since 1990. Enter the Eagles, owners of the worst record of all teams still playing these days (read: fellow playoff foes) in the NFL. We are fully aware that you can only play the teams on your schedule, but after the Eagles followed their 2-5 start with a 7-3 run to clinch a playoff spot, it should be noted that four of those wins came against teams with a backup QB – and it’s only fair to note they didn’t beat a single team with a winning record. In fact, Philadelphia was laid to rest in each of its six games against fellow playoff squads this season. To close it out, consider that NFL playoff teams who won 4 or fewer games last season are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS since 1981 when coming off a loss of more than 7 points.

Rating: 5 Unit Wild Card Game of the Week

Rest assured, the Bills have been chewing nails since losing to Kansas City in the AFC title game last season. Not only have they played their way back to the postseason this year, they’ll take the field today knowing that playoff home teams who fell in their conference title game the previous season are 44-8 SU and 34-16-2 ATS overall, including 26-3 SU and 21-6-2 ATS when coming off a win of 6-plus points. Yes, we realize that six of their victories this season have come against teams that were using a backup quarterback, but after its 7-0 SUATS winning skein, New England enters just 1-3 SUATS in its last four contests while nearly mirroring its dismal 1-4 start to begin the season. The Pats where out-yarded -406 net yards against five fellow bowl teams this season, while the Bills outs tatted six playoff teams to the tune of +325 net yards. In fact, consider that NFL playoff home favorites who were in the playoffs the previous season are 15-3 SU and 14-5 ATS since 1996 when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS when coming off a loss of more than 8 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Joe Burrow enters this scrape with a hot hand, having tossed for 971 yards in his last two starts – just three yards short of an NFL record over a two-game period. Along with rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase, they have become one of the league’s mostfeared duos. With RB Joe Mixon tallying 16 TDs in 16 games this season, this is an offense no one wants to face this postseason. Meanwhile, the Raiders ride a 4-game win streak. With it, this will mark the first playoff game for both signal-callers, Derek Carr and Burrow. Las Vegas coach Rich Bisaccia became the first interim coach since 1960 to take over a team during mid-season and lead his troops to the playoffs. With the Raiders looking to avenge a 32-13 home loss to the Bengals back in November – a game much closer than the final score indicates when the contest got out of hand late (Burrow threw for 148 yards) – and the Bengals riding an 8-game losing skein in the playoffs since their last win during the 1990 season, look for Cincy to succumb to its postseason inexperience and an 0-5 SUATS record in the playoffs when entering off a loss. Take the points.

Rating: 3 Units

Nick Saban stands 25-1 SU and 16-10 ATS against former coaches by an average margin of victory of 23.8 PPG, including 4-0 SU versus Smart by an average margin of victory of 11 PPG. He’s also a perfect 6-0 SUATS as a dog coming off four or more wins in a row – the same role in which he knocked off Georgia in the SEC title game last month. In addition, the Dawgs had better not let the Tide take a double-digit lead in this contest as Alabama is 60-0 SU in games when leading by 10 or more points (the longest skein in the nation). The favorite in CFP championship games shows no real advantage, going 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS all-time, including 0-3 ATS when not undefeated. Bad role for Georgia, too, as the Bulldogs are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as bowl chalk of 7 or fewer points when not coming off consecutive SUATS wins and facing foes coming off a SUATS win. We could go back-and-forth all day, but the bottom line is we cannot pass up an opportunity to back the No. 1 ranked team in the nation as a dog in the biggest game of the season.

Rating: 4 UnitSNF Game of the Week

The Chargers’ Achilles heel has been its scoring defense in late stages of the game, as the 10.3 PPG they surrender in the 4Q of games is the worst in the league. However, Vegas is the worst team in the league in Penalty Yards Per Game which means nothing surprises us in this prime time playoff eliminator. In a game of back-and-forth possibilities, we settle on this beauty  that winning division home dogs of 3 or fewer points seeking revenge in their final game of the season are 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS since 1980. In addition, playing on any division home dog with a winning record coming off a SU non-division NFL road win as a dog of 4 or more points if they are facing an opponent that has won 21 or fewer of its last 32 overall games is a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1980.  That should put the Raiders in the playoffs.

Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day

Niners need either a win or a loss by the Saints, and they are in the playoffs as a wild card. Frisco upended Los Angeles, 31-10, as a 3.5-point home dog back in November, and has now won and covered each of the past three meetings in this series. After stumbling out of the gate 3-5 during the first half of the season, Kyle Shanahan’s troops have found their groove going 6-2 SUATS and 7-1 ITS (In The Stats) in their previous eight games. With the horned heads just 3-9 ATS at home when coming off consecutive road contests, and the 49ers sporting a 28-12 SU and 28-10-2 ATS record as a visitor in this series, the points become the play today. To cap it off, consider that the Rams are 1-7 SUATS at home in division games when coming off consecutive away wins, including 0-6 SUATS the last six.

Rating: 6 Unit AFC Game of the Month

Cincinnati comes into this one celebrating their first playoff berth, division title, and season of double-digit wins since 2015. QB Joe Burrow passed for 446 yards and four TDs, giving him 971 yards and eight TDs, and zero interceptions over the past two weeks. And Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase has become the NFL ‘s most dangerous connection. With the Browns averaging a mere 4.4 PPG during the 4Q this season – only Atlanta was worse – look for the Bengals to avenge a 41-16 home loss suffered against Cleveland two months ago. Finally, consider that Cincinnati is 10-0 SU and 8-2 in this series when the Browns are coming off consecutive SUATS losses, including 6-0 SUATS when Cleveland owns a losing record.

Rating: 3 Units

The Chiefs were 3-point chalk two weeks ago in this game at the Super Book in Las Vegas. They were also 9.5-point favorites in this matchup at Arrowhead just five weeks ago, a game they won 22-9 despite being out yarded 404-267 yards. Given the Featherheads’ 2-8 ATS mark of late against sub .500 foes, look for the Broncos to improve on their 8-1 ATS mark when coming off a division road contest. In fact, for more, consider that Denver is 17-5 SU and 20-2 ATS as a home dog when coming off a division contest, including 13-0 ATS versus sub .700 opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

The boys from Manhattan own massive edges at both the head coaching and quarterback positions, and coach Klieman stands 11-4 SU and 10-3 ATS versus .500 or fewer opponents. We cement the call with this nugget that Bowl dogs coming off consecutive losses are 5-0 SUATS since 1980 against foes off a pair of wins, the last SU as an underdog.

Rating: 2 Units

If the Vikings aren’t the epitome of a “close-call” team, there isn’t one. Fourteen of their 15 games have been decided by 8 or fewer points, and last week they put the icing on the cake in their showdown with the Rams, that saw the time of possession deadlocked at 30:00 for both teams, while Minnesota outgained Los Angeles by five net yards. QB Kirk Cousins had a fine game overall, going 27-of-38 for 315 yards, one touchdown and an interception that wasn’t his fault. With the No. 8 seed Vikes sitting just on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff race, they will need to bring the kitchen sink and more here tonight. Consider that Mike Zimmer sports a sterling 19-6-1 ATS dog log when coming off a loss, including 12-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opposition.

Rating: 4 Unit NFC Play of the Day

The Cowboys became the 17th different NFC East division champion in the past 17 seasons when they clinched the crown in last week’s 56-14 whipping of Washington. With it, QB Dak Prescott fi nally broke out of his slump, albeit against a poor pass defense missing lots of personnel. Prescott was nearly perfect in this game going 28-of-39 for 330 yards and four touchdowns. He’ll need a repeat performance today, though, especially with ‘Zona 6-1 SUATS away this season. Consider that Dallas is 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS at home the last 11 years without rest versus .666 or greater conference opponents, including 0-12 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of fewer than 51 points

Rating: 3 Unit

Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley, are expected back for today’s fray. The Ravens are 5-2 SUATS home this season,13-2 SU last 15 games versus NFC foes. Enter the Rams, 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS last four games in this series. The  Rams are just 2-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last four overall games, meaning they are not hitting on all cylinders. Making matters worse, QB Matthew Stafford had a horrible game in last week’s 30-23 victory at Minnesota, going 21-of-37 for 197 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Figure the Black Birds to be in a ‘fowl’ mood after marching down the field on their opening drive to take a 7-3 lead at Cincinnati last week, only to find themselves trailing 31-7 at the half. With the loss they fell to the No. 10 spot in the AFC playoff picture. With their backs to the postseason wall, it’s put up or shut up time for the Ravens. Consider that Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is 15-8-1 ATS as a dog from Game Fifteen out, including 5-0 ATS when coming off a division contest. In addition, playing on any winning NFL home team coming off four or more losses if they are facing an opponent coming off a win is 8-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

The  Bengals enter 4-1 SUATS this season versus .555 or greater foes. The bad news is Burrow has never won three straight NFL contests (0-3 SUATS off consecutive wins). With last week’s rout of the Ravens, Cincinnati swept Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, KC QB Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 SU versus AFC North, but only 2-6-1 ATS as a road favorite in games with the better record versus non-division foes. The fact that the Chiefs own the league’s hot-hand brings them into this fray as the favorite. Because of it, they are laying more points here than they did at Las Vegas in mid November. Given the Bengals’ 14-3 ATS log in games when coming off a win when facing AFC West foes, we’re on these live home cats today.

Rating: 5 Unit AFC Game of the Week

Miami’s 21-3 win over New Orleans Monday Night was more lopsided than the final score indicated, as the Dolphins outgained the Saints, 259-164, and averaged 1.2 more yards per play. With it, they currently hold down the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture after Monday night’s win, with two more games left to prove they’re deserving of a postseason berth. With last week’s home underdog win over San Francisco, Tennessee enters today’s fray as the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC playoff picture. After tossing for only 40 yards in the first half against San Francisco last week, Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill came alive after the break finishing up 22-of-29 for 209 yards and a touchdown. Still, they are just 1-6 ATS as non-division home chalk of 5 or fewer points, while Miami is 17-4 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or fewer points. Consider that NFL dogs riding a 7-game-exact win streak are 13-3 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS when coming off a non-division victory.

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Day

The Golden Domers are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS versus .846-or-greater Big 12 opponents, plus 7-13 SU and 6-14 ATS versus bowl opponents that allow fewer than 18.5 PPG. And that is key here as the Cowboys have one of the stingiest defensive units in the nation (ranked 3rd in the country), and allowed just 16.8 points per game this season, which was 7th in scoring defense. DC Jim Knowles is another major coach who has flown the coop before a bowl game, heading for the same position at Ohio State, but the defensive game plan is etched in stone in Stillwater. Also, remember, the Cowboys were one inch away from a possible appearance in this season College Football Playoff after going 5-0 SUATS away from home this season. Consider that College Bowl favorites entering 3-0 SUATS in their last three games, the last an ATS win of 6-plus points, are 4-29 ATS against a foe who scored 21 or fewer points in its final game of the season.  Know also that playing against any College Bowl favorite who is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last 3 games if they are off a double-digit ATS win and are facing a foe coming off a loss who allows fewer than 25 PPG is a perfect 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Units

Penn State enters the Outback Bowl just 2-5 SU and ITS (In The Stats) in their last seven games. Franklin doesn’t lend much assistance today with his 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS career record against SEC foes that own the better record. Advantage to coach Pittman, who brings a 10-3 ATS dog log into this battle, including 6-0 ATS versus sub .800 foes. SEC bowlers with the better record are 24-10 SU, and 20-14 ATS versus Big Ten foes, including 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the last ten years. We’ll call this a fat-cat favorite against an opponent that is absolutely elated to be here – and grab as many points as we can.

Rating: 2 Units

The loss to Alabama, which resulted in an avalanche of social media postings that condemned UGA QB Stetson Bennett’s effort, knocked the Dawgs ‘all the way down’ to No. 2 nationally in overall Team Defense (254.4). Still, Georgia held eight foes to 7 or fewer points this season, with only ONE team scoring more than 17 points (Bama with 41 in the SEC title game). So, when the ‘D’ plays up to its usual standards, we think Bennett is more than capable of leading his team to a big win in a big game. The mean machine shows support for Georgia, too, as it notes that bowlers coming off a loss who surrender 14.5 or fewer PPG are 25-10-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS win, including 21-6 SUATS against opponents who allow more than 15 PPG. The Bulldogs have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight Bowls, which includes a 4-1 ATS effort as chalk of less than 13 points, and they’ve gone 6-2 ATS when playing off a SU loss of 14 or more points. A big chink in Michigan’s armor comes courtesy of Harbaugh’s 10-29 SU and 17-22 ATS as a dog, including 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS versus .923 or greater opponents. Numbers like those lend more  importance to the Wolverines’ dismal 1-5 ATS mark as bowl dogs after scoring 40 or more points in the previous three games, and their recent 1-3 ATS slide as bowl dogs. Finally, SEC Bowl favorites stand 9-3 ATS versus the Big Ten, while Big Ten bowl dogs are 0-5 SUATS since 2002 versus foes coming off a SU favorite loss.

Rating: 3 Units

The Bearcats are the ONLY Bowl dog this season that was favored in every game, and undefeated dogs of more than 4 points in this role are 8-2 ATS. Cincy has also been money in the bank the last three years when taking points, going 5-1 ATS, and Luke Fickell’s ‘Cats hang right in with the big boys, going 6-0 ATS in their last six battles with .900 or better opponents. Yes, Nick’s Tide was hugely impressive against Georgia, but just one week earlier, Bama had to engineer an offensive drive for the ages merely to force OT against Auburn, then somehow prevailed in four overtimes, 24-22. And everyone thinks these guys can’t be beat? A tale of the tape shows that while the Bearcats beat all comers this season, they were 7-0 ATS versus .500 or greater foes, as opposed to 1-4 ATS versus losing opposition. It fits within Cincy’s 23-12 SU and 21-13-1 ATS overall mark against .500 or better foes under head coach Fickell, who is also 26-5 SU and 17-12 ATS when undefeated, including 7-0 ATS versus a foe coming off an ATS win of 8+ points. The fact is Alabama is just 1-4 ATS as Bowl chalk of more than 9 points, plus defending champs are just 9-8 SU and 6-11 ATS since 1980 as favorites of more than 6 points the following postseason, including 0-4 SUATS when they surrender 18 or more PPG – with every loss as a favorite. Bowl teams off a Championship dog win like Bama are 12-4 ATS, but Saban is only 2-4 ATS in his career versus undefeated foes when his team is not undefeated and coming off a SUATS win. Heisman Trophy winning QB Bryce Young will also have to face the No. 1 team in the nation in Team Passing Efficiency Defense, and the No. 3 team in the nation in Red Zone Defense. Remember, the Bearcats led Georgia 21-10 after three quarters in last year’s Peach Bowl before losing 24-21 on a last-second field goal by the Bulldogs.  These same Heisman winners are just 2-11 SU in this role.  If all of this isn't enough, consider this tidbit that playing against any college bowl team that allows fewer than 18 PPG, and won its previous game by more than 7 points is 12-1 ATS since 1980.  Then we can cap it all off with the fact that  Heisman winners are just 2-11 SU in this role.

Rating: 2 Units

The Sun Devils come into this one being 3-9 ATS in the last 12 bowls, 1-5 ATS as dogs, and the horrible history of Pac-12 Bowlers versus Big Ten foes: 4-16 ATS, including 1-5 ATS as dogs versus the Big Ten, along with 1-11 ATS if not favored by 6 or more points… and the word we’re looking for after writing that is: ugh. The Badgers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 postseason contests and Vegas Bowl history favors the favorites, 7-3 ATS in the last 10.

Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Week

The East Lansing Knothole Gang is a crackling 7-1 ATS in its last eight bowls, 3-0 ATS versus the ACC in the last three, and the B1G Boys have been bullies against the ACC in bowl season, going 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Big-moneyed Head Coach Mel Tucker engineered the biggest one-season turnaround in the long history of Spartans’ football and despite all the attention Walker III earned, don’t sleep on talented QB Payton Thorne, especially if receiver Jalen Nailor is able to bounce back from injury and join fellow wideout Jayden Reed. Consider as well that .700 or greater College Bowl ‘Mission Teams’ – teams who missed a bowl game last season after having been a bowler each of the previous three seasons – are 16-3-1 ATS versus foes coming off a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

North Carolina runs it well, 5.8 YPC, and the Gamecocks give up 5.1 per carry. But before you paint your face Carolina Blue, think of the following: South Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games, 5-1 ATS as bowl dogs, and the SEC is 10-2 ATS as bowl dogs in the last five years. UNC is 1-4 ATS in the last five versus the SEC, ACC Bowl favorites of three points or greater are 2-8 ATS. North Carolina also as sub .750 bowl favorites who allow more than 25.5 PPG are just 14-34 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS loss. We’ve written this before, motivation and just being happy to be in the bowl game is huge, and South Carolina exceeded expectations this year, while North Carolina didn’t come close.

Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Month

Oregon got as high as No. 3 in the CFB Playoff rankings before getting spanked twice in two weeks by Utah, which destroyed any hopes for a playoff appearance or a New Year’s Six Bowl. It’s bad enough that the down-and-out  Ducks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Bowls, but the Pac-12 is 0-5 ATS versus the Big 12 of late in post-season matchups, and Bowl dogs of 15 or fewer points off a conference loss of 28 or more are 3-9 ATS… that’s a lot of fugly numbers at work here against the quackers in this matchup. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in bowl games in which the Sooners sport the better record. In fact, OU is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS against Pac-12 foes in games in which the Sooners own the better record. With both head coaches bolting for greener pastures – Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley is off to USC, while Oregon’s Mario Cristobal landed at Miami Florida – the feeling here is the Sooners have much more unfinished business at hand in this contest. The Clincher: Pac-12 bowlers coming off a SUATS loss are 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS since 2015.

Rating: 2 Units

WVU head coach Neal Brown has a little catch phrase of his own to motivate his troops in “Trust the Climb”, but the Mountaineers will have a major hill to scale tonight after going 1-10 ATS in their last 11 bowl appearances. Still, Brown is 4-0 SU in his career in Bowl games (including three while at Troy), and that’s what counts today. In addition, Brown is 7-0 ATS as a non-conference dog versus .500 or greater foes, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus opponents coming off an underdog win. The Hillbillies check a lot of boxes in this matchup, and they get the call.

Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Bowl Play of the Day

Despite being the primary focus of every defense, Brad Roberts is the Falcons workhorse, averaging over 106 YPG with his longest run of the season being only 33 yards. People tend to forget the Falcons in the bowl season too, but AFA is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 bowls, 11-2 ATS off back-to-back SU victories, 4-1 ATS when an opponent limps in off a double-digit loss (like UL is), and 4-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points. Also consider that playing on any Military bowl team with a greater than .666 win percentage versus an opponent not coming off a double-digit win is 18-2 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day

The Dolphins have won yardage in each of their last five games, while surrendering just 272 YPG throughout the course of its current six-game win skein. On the flip side, the Saints did the impossible when they blanked Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs in Tampa Bay last week. And for that they figure to pay a price today. For openers, New Orleans is 1-9-1 ATS home versus AFC opponents. In the 9-0 victory last week, only one Saint registered more than 17 receiving yards. That was Marquez Callaway, who had a big game. He caught six of his nine targets for 112 yards. Look for New Orleans and its 1-9-1 ATS record as an AFC host to take a hit tonight. The Clincher: Teams who shut out the defending Super Bowl champions in a win of 7 or more points are 0-3 SUATS since 1980 their next game.

Rating: 2 Units

Starter Teddy Bridgewater is out, enter Drew Lock. The former starter knows that he is 11-5 ATS in starts with the Broncos when Denver is coming off a loss, including 8-1 ATS from Game Ten out. The Broncos hit the road in the first of three straight travelers sporting a 7-2 ATS mark in these games. Meanwhile, the Raiders return home after Monday’s makeshift game in Cleveland, where they edged the Browns 16-14, to keep their playoff hopes alive. The problem is the Black-and-Silver are just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS at Allegiant Stadium, including 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when hosting .500 or greater opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

Baltimore was a team with 17 players on injured reserve, five more on the COVID list, plus four more starters who were neither on IR or COVID-IR but were inactive. By the end of Sunday’s game, six of their top seven corners from the start of the season were gone, so perhaps playing for the win, rather than going up against Aaron Rodgers in overtime was the lesser of two evils. Cincinnati returns home off a gutsy 5-point win at Denver. As a result, they hold down the top spot in the AFC North, and would play Indianapolis should the playoffs begin this week. The problem for the Bengals today, though, is their feeble 7-10 SU and 6-11 ATS mark as division home chalk of fewer than 7 points, as well as QB Joe Burrow’s 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS mark in the NFL when Cincinnati is coming off a win. And with that it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: Baltimore is 13-6-1 ATS as a division road dog under head coach John Harbaugh, including 9-0 ATS in its last nine games.

Rating: 2 Units

Jared Goff’s best effort of the season may prevent Detroit from landing Kenny Pickett. Perhaps this performance will persuade the team to keep him for one more year. Goff misfired just five times, going 21-of-26 for 216 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s hair-raising 30-12 win over Arizona as 13-point home underdogs. It was just the 8th time since 1980 that a home dog of that size has managed to pull the rug out on its pricey guest. And for what it’s worth, six of those seven teams hit the road in their next contest where they went 4-1-1 ATS. With that we call in the Falcons, a team that is 0-9 ITS (In The Stats) since their Bye week in October. In addition, Nate Davis of the USA TODAY reports that the Lions’ upset win over Arizona marked just the third time in the Super Bowl era that a team with fewer than two wins beat a 10 win-team. Detroit’s 4.6 Yards Per Rush is its highest since 1997, and it fits like a glove into Atlanta’s 4.3 YPG Rush Defense.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bolts left a bushel full of points off the scoreboard, while ‘analytically’ deciding to go for the jugular on 4th downs instead of taking the 3-point layups. Here’s hoping a wave of common sense hits the Chargers like Omicron before their playoff hopes suddenly need a 9-1-1 booster shot. The good news today is the Chargers are 31-12 SU and 33-8-2 ATS all time versus the AFC South, including 20-3-2 ATS since 2009. The other is Houston’s recent 0-4 ATS ledger against the AFC West as well as its 1-7 SUATS mark at home in games when coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Dallas held Glennon to a 24.8 passer rating and forced three picks last week as he is 6-25 in his NFL career starts, including 1-16 in his last seventeen. Things were so bad for the G-Men last week that WR Kenny Golladay led the team in receiving with three catches for 53 yards, while Sterling Shepard tore his Achilles on the fi nal drive of the game when he collapsed on a non-contact injury. Ouch. With the Eagles on the road to recovery following their 2-5 start to the season, and anxious to avenge an ugly 13-7 loss at New York a month ago, we only have eyes on the ostracized birds today as they improve to 5-1-1 ATS in the second of consecutive division bouts.

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Indianapolis reversed a 0-3 start into the No. 5 seed in the current AFC playoff chase thanks to 4-1 SUATS skein after taking on the latest ‘Hard Knocks II’ role Thanksgiving Week, while snapping New England’s season best 7-game win streak last week. And they did it in spite of QB Carson Wentz’s immense struggles as potential league MVP RB Jonathan Taylor dashed for 170 yards on 29 attempts, including a 67-yard scamper for a score. Given head coach Frank Reich’s 10-4 SU mark from Game Thirteen out during the regular season, and Indy’s 8-3 SUATS all time mark against NFC West foes coming off consecutive losses, the points become the play here today. Also consider that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 3-8 SUATS at home in his NFL career versus winning foes, including 0-8 SUATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season. To cap it all off, consider that playing against any regular season NFL home pick or favorite on Saturday coming off a loss if they lost to the spread by 17 or more points in the loss is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980.