Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals from Muncie, Indiana, won the Arizona Bowl as 8-point underdogs last season, but keep in mind that good fortune seldom comes calling two years in a row, as these teams are just 9-24 ATS the following bowl campaign when they field a team that owns a defense which allows more than 21.5 PPG. And when it comes to out-gaining foes on the field in 2021, BSU has bottomed out with a horrible 1-11 ITS (In The Stats) record – worst of all bowlers. The red birds have also gone 2-4 ATS in away games and 2-4 ATS as dogs, compared to the Panthers’ sparkling 5-1 ATS road record, and a 5-2 ATS mark as chalk. Down the stretch, Georgia State closed on a 6-1 SUATS run versus Ball State’s 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS effort. The deluge of bad news continues for BSU as the Cards have had their wings clipped in the last seven Bowl outings, going 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. GSU was favored one other time in a bowl game in which they cruised, 39-21, over Western Kentucky last season. With the Montgomery game site just a jaunt down I-85 from Atlanta, we look for Shawn Elliott’s Panthers to ride their 5-yards per rush ground attack to a big win here, and give the MAC another black eye in this year’s Bowls.

Rating: 3 Units

Florida will be without leading receiver Jacob Copeland, who entered the transfer portal – and he is unlikely to be the last Gator to opt out of this bowl game, as players have not meshed with the lame-duck coaching staff. All of which sets up what we like to call “The Gus Malzahn Revenge Bowl.” The former Auburn head coach knows the SEC like the back of his hand, and was 12-5 ATS as a dog against SEC foes when playing with a revenge chip on his shoulder (the Gators beat his Tigers as 2.5-point home dogs in 2019, 24-13). Gus is also 21-11-1 ATS in his career when looking to get even, including 16-3 SU and 14-4 ATS versus sub .888 foes. With Florida approaching terminal velocity in its stunning descent, we’re all-in against a big-brother foe that went 1-6 SU in games against fellow bowl teams this season.

Rating: 3 Units

The Tigers managed to outgained only three of their twelve opponents, and were just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against FBS foes who managed to rush the ball for at least 200 yards against them. For what it’s worth, the last time the Tigers tackled a Military team during Bowl season, they were left dragging their tails in a 35-13 loss to Navy as 6.5-point chalk in 2009. However, the absolute bottom line today is that Army can REALLY rush the football (second in the country behind Air Force), while Mizzou cannot stop it (120th in yards allowed per carry). As we’ve told you in the past on these pages, military teams tend to shine during the Bowl season, going 37-14 ATS overall since 1980. Better yet, these military bowlers are 6-0 ATS since 1980 when coming off a SU favorite loss.

Rating: 2 Units

UTSA’s Conference USA colleagues nodded off during bowl season last year, going 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS, doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence in Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners, as the loop brings a 7-16 SU and 8-14-1 ATS mark in post-season performances dating back to 2017. In addition, their 1-3 ATS and ITS (In The Stats) mark in the last four games of the season, as the pressure to remain undefeated was building, throws up a big red flag for us. Consider that bowlers who have won 15 or more of their previous 22 games, and are coming off a season-ending SU favorite loss (one-exact: read the Aztecs), are 28-8-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win when not favored by 6 or more points. The fun attack of UTSA has had a great season, but the Aztecs will have all their arrows sharpened and we’re not fading that.

Rating: 2 Units

The Vikings last 10 games have been decided by 8 or fewer points. And while it appears the 4-9 Bears look like they’ve gone into early hibernation, the fact remains they were still mathematically alive in the playoff race entering this weekend. Given Minny’s not so mighty 1-10 ATS record in its last eleven Monday Night road games, we’ll have our hand out looking to take as many points as we can get tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Baltimore loss vs Green Bay yesterday would vault Cleveland into first place in the AFC North, while also being the No. 4 seed in the current NFL playoff picture, with a win tonight. They will likely have to get by without the services of RB Kareem Hunt (ankle), but D’Ernest Johnson has filled in admirably during his frequent absences this campaign. Las Vegas’ 0-5 SUATS record the past three seasons in games after tackling Kansas City works in Cleveland’s favor, as does the Raiders rotten 1-4-1 ATS record in this series when coming off consecutive losses. Don’t look for the Browns to blow this golden opportunity.

Rating: 3 Units

Brady is just 2-4 ATS at home in his career in division games when coming off a SUATS home win, including 0-3 ATS against foes coming off a win. In addition, the Bucs bring a sour 0-4 ATS mark into this fray in the first of consecutive division duke-outs. On the opposite side of the field, the Saints kept their playoff hopes alive with a big win at the Jets last week, knowing they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven division roadies. The Saints’ offense was a Sean Payton special, with all Taysom Hill runs and short passes and Alvin Kamara touches. Hill, despite a broken middle finger, misfired on just six occasions, as he seldom went downfield. He finished 15-of-21 for 175 yards, but did most of his damage on the ground. He scrambled 11 times for 73 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Kamara, meanwhile, rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown on 27 attempts. He also caught four passes for 25 receiving yards. That’s what you get with the Saints these days. Tie in Payton’s 47-26-3 ATS all-time dog log, including 21-4-2 ATS versus a foe coming off consecutive wins, and we’ve suddenly got the makings a live, double-digit division dog tonight. We seal the deal knowing that playing on any NFL away team in a division game on Sunday Night that is coming off a win of more than 10 points if they’re facing an opponent coming off a pair of wins who won 10 or more games last year is 11-1-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 UnitNFL Upset of the Day

The suddenly listless Ravens have not scored an offensive touchdown in the first quarter in each of their last 7 games, but if you saw the second half of the Ravens-Browns contest, you’ll know why we think they’ve still got some fight left. That was when backup QB Tyler Huntley sparked Baltimore to a near-win at Cleveland, engineering a 19-point second half comeback that fell two-points short in the Ravens’ 24-22 loss at the Dawg Pound. Consider as well that playing on any NFL home dog of more than 3 points during the second-half of the season with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and they are facing an opponent with at least one loss on the season who is coming off a win of 14 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

Deebo Samuel is practicing fully this week after being hampered in Week 14. Fred Warner, the 49ers' most important defensive player, also is primed for a big game after dealing with an ankle injury.. When the Falcons step up in class, they usually get hammered. Witness their 40-point loss in Dallas, their 25-0 blanking at the hands of New England, and a pair of double-digit defeats to Tampa Bay. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS versus winning teams. The 49ers are putting it all together for a playoff run and should win by double digits.

Rating: 2 Units

 Pittsburgh has been outscored 78-16 in the first half of its past four games. If the Steelers start slowly again, they'll have a hard time coming back against Tennessee's above-average defense. Bud Dupree has been activated and will face his former team. Look for Tennessee to run the ball effectively with D'Onta Foreman -- the Steelers rank 30th in rush defense per DVOA -- as the Titans improve to 6-1 ATS in their last seven as underdogs.

Rating: 2 Unit

Napier went a sparkling 40-13 in his tenure there, which if he replicates at the University of Florida, will make him a nearly Spurrier like hero. (The Head Ball Coach will always be #1 in Gainesville). Still, we have concerns, such as a flat 0-4 ATS in the last four bowl games, and 2-6 ATS mark when playing off rest. Meantime, Marshall is quite the post-season juggernaut, going 12-3 SUATS in bowl games since 1998 and 4-0 SUATS when coming off double-digit losses. Herd QB Grant Wells can fling the ball around the building quite well, ranking 12th in passing yards this season with 3,453 yards and 16 TDs, and if that’s not working, the spectacular Rasheen Ali can take over a game.

Rating: 5 UnitNFL Saturday Game of the Month

Bill Belichick is 6-2 SUATS riding a 7-game winning streak, including 4-0 SUATS versus sub .700 foes. He’s also 20-5 on Saturdays, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS during the regular season, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus the Colts with New England, including 5-0 ATS in games in which Indy owns a sub .777 win percentage. Toss in his sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest and his squad suddenly poses a major problem for the born-again Colts. Meanwhile, Indy has forgotten how win in this series, going just 13-34 SU and 14-32-1 ATS overall since 1987, including 2-17 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in games in which the Pats own the better record. We don’t see anything here being broke, and we’re not about to fix it. Finally, consider that New England head coach Bill Belichick is a sterling 12-2 SUATS record as a visitor when playing with rest, including 11-0 SUATS when facing sub .666 opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

Typically, Oregon State is tough on the Mountain West, cashing in on 6 of the last seven skirmishes. We have backed OSU many times this season, so why are we turning our backs on them this time, you rightfully ask? Since 1984, bowl favorites who won just two games the season before are a heartburn-inducing 4-11 ATS, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a defeat. Finally, consider that PAC-12 bowl teams coming off a win are 1-21 ATS since 2015.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cougars come into this one 9-16-1 ATS against teams who surrender 24.5 PPG or less. Coach Sitake is 6-17 ATS as a favorite in games where the Cougs give up 21.5 PPG or more, and a frightening 1-11 ATS in the last 12. Motivation is HUGE in these smaller bowl games, and we believe UAB’s will be loaded with it. Coach Bill Clark literally rose this program from the dead a few years ago, and the Blazers are a tough out against the giants, going 7-2 ATS versus foes .800 or better, including 5-1 ATS as the underdog. Not only that, the Blazers come from Conference USA, which will be undergoing massive changes soon (like it or not), but one steady stat says CUSA squadrons are 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS when coming off a win, and 7-0 ATS when coming off an ATS win.

Rating: 2 Units

Teams returning to the same bowl in which they lost last year are 0-5 SUATS since 2004. For another, they’re taking on a Northern Illinois bunch that engineered a rags-to-riches story of their own in 2021. After head coach Thomas Hammock took over the Huskies, they went winless (0-6) during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but shook off a 1-2 start this year with an 8-2 finish, blasting Kent State to claim their second MAC championship since 2014 (NIU recently signed Hammock to a contract extension through 2026). The sled dogs pulled more upsets (6) than any FBS team this season, and finished No. 1 in the nation in 4th Down Conversion Percentage, and No. 9 in Red Zone Offense. Yes, we realize Northern Illinois has gone 0-6 SUATS in bowl games since 2012, but consider that FBS bowl teams who were winless the previous season are 5-1 ATS. The bottom line is the Huskies are overjoyed to be here, while Coastal Carolina – with a QB that is less than 100% – might not be.

Rating: 4 Unit Prime Time Game of the Week

QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in this series in games in which the Bolts sport a .500 or greater record, while Andy Reid brings a 2-4 SUATS career record on Thursdays into this contest when facing division foes. On the flip side, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursdays from Game Eleven out.

Rating: 2 Units

Any team with any realistic shot at a Super Bowl needs help from the defense, and it’s worth noting the Cards’ stop-unit has been out-yarded in three of its last five games. The Rams will look to exploit that tonight knowing they are 4-0 SUATS in their last four-division contests after surrendering fewer than 10 points in its last game, as well as 8-1 SUATS the last nine games in this series (the loss being a 37-10 defeat in L.A. in Game Four this season). Given the Redbirds’ ruinous 1-7 ATS mark in its last seven games as a division host, as well as its 2-10 ATS record at home on Monday Nights, and head coach Sean McVay’s 10-5 SUATS on the division road, including 3-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win, which all sets up perfectly knowing that Arizona head coach Kingsbury is 4-8 ATS as a home favorite with the Cardinals, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of fewer than six points.

Rating: 4 Unit - Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Kyle Shanahan has developed a broad home-road dichotomy, where he is 22-16 ATS away as opposed to 16-22-1 ATS at home with San Francisco (more on that below). Included in those numbers is a glitzy 7-2 ATS record on the AFC road, including 6-0 ATS the last six contests. Coupled with Cincy’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark under Zac Taylor in games against the NFC West, it paints an imposing picture for the suddenly fractured Bengals. Consider that Shanahan is 11-2 ATS away in non-division games against foes coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

Tampa sits atop the NFC South with a four-game lead over all three of their other division rivals. In addition, Buffalo enters on an 8-1-1 ATS win skein on the non-conference road as well as 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in games after coming off a SU favorite Monday Night loss. Yes, Tommy Seven Rings is 31-3 all-tie against Buffalo, but in each of those wins he had The Hoodie whispering in his ear. FYI: He is only 2-2 ATS against Buffalo when the Bills sport a .636 or greater win percentage. Moving to the here and now, though, you may be shocked to learn that Brady is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS during the regular season with the Bucs versus .636 or greater opponents. To cap it off, consider that Tom Brady is 0-5 SUATS as a favorite during the regular season versus .636 or greater foes with Tampa Bay.

Rating: 2 Units

The Midshipmen have gone 18-5 ATS as dogs when coming off one SUATS win-exact, including 4-0 ATS in military matters, as well as 7-1 ATS with a losing record. Army counters with a lackluster 2-5 ATS effort in this series of late, and has gone a weak 1-4 ATS as chalk in 2021. The Mids are also not lacking in incentive: with Army playing with an Armed Forces Bowl bid in their back pocket, and knowing the CIC Trophy stays with them regardless, the Swabbies have only one thought in mind: Beat Army, Period.  Finally, consider that playing on  any sub .666 college football Military team as a dog if they are coming off a win and are facing a fellow Military team is 10-1 ATS since 1995.

Rating: 3 Units

Tomlin is 0-5 ATS in his NFL career after upsetting a division rival when facing a non-division foe coming off a SUATS loss. Worse, a loss by Mike Zimmer, and his tenure with Minnesota could be over by season’s end. It’s what happens to coaches who have delivered 2 playoff wins in 8 seasons. Tonight, he’ll look to rely on his 25-7-1 ATS career record in non-division tilts when coming off a loss, including 11-1 ATS versus AFC opponents. And for what it’s worth, Minnesota is also 4-0-1 ATS on Thursdays against non-division opposition coming off a win. Consider that teams who lose to a winless opponent during the second-half of the season are 5-1-1 ATS since 1980 at home in non-division contests the following game.

Rating: 2 Units

Suddenly, the Patriots’ 2-4 start to the season seems like a distant memory as they ride a 6-game win streak entering tonight’s contest. New England is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS when on a six-game-exact win skein since 2007. NFL teams on a 6-0 SUATS-exact win skein are 6-1 SUATS in division games when coming off an ATS win of 14 or more points. That’ a lot for Sean McDermott to digest given the fact that Buffalo is 3-31 SU and 12-21-1-1 ATS against the Pats since 2001, including 2-16 SU and 5-13 ATS home. After its 4-1 SUATS start, Buffalo enters tonight’s game just 3-3 SUATS in its past six contests. With Belichick riding a 9-1 ATS mark in his last ten games as a division road against foes coming off a win, we can’t fade that.

Rating: 3 Units

Mike Tomlin is 20-7 SU and 17-8-2 ATS in his NFL career after allowing more than 30 points in a contest, including 15-3 SU and 12-4-2 ATS at home.  As a result of Sunday’s 41-10 pummeling, Pittsburgh now resides in last place in the AFC North. There is nothing better than a red-faced angry dog who embarrassed us as a 5* Best Bet last week, especially at home in division games. With that being said, Big Ben is 8-4 SU and 9-2-1 ATS as a home dog in this league. However, to seal the deal consider that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS as a division dog against foes coming off consecutive wins.

5* Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Setting the table for the Raiders, is the fact that home teams coming off a Turkey Day win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS since 1990 when hosting sub .666 foes off win. With the sinners in a three-way tie for second-place in the AFC West, one game behind Kansas City, and currently 5-1 ATS at home coming off a pair of previous home losses – they lost to Cincinnati and Kansas City at Allegiant Stadium last month – it’s time to hand it off to The Clincher: NFL teams coming off a SU underdog win on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since 1990 versus a foe coming off a Monday Night game.

Rating: 4 Unit 4* AFC Play of the Day

While on paper it appears the Chargers are wobbling at 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS since Bye week, they are actually 4-1 ITS (In The Stats) in those games. They are also 6-1-1 ATS away when coming off an away game. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow appears to be leading the Bengals’ resurgence, yet he is just 2-6 ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4 SUATS against no-division foes. And then there is Cinci’s 2-11 SUATS ledger when coming off a pair of wins-exact. Speaking of which, we sew up the deal with The clincher: Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS since 1980 when coming off consecutive wins after facing Pittsburgh, including 0-5 SUATS in non-division games.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* NFL Upset of the Week

Chicago has out yarded each of its last three opponents, while holding all three foes to less than 300 yards. And then there is this from the WOM (Well Oiled Machine): Game Twelve NFL home teams who were in the playoffs the previous season are 6-1 SUATS since 1990 against opponents coming off a Bye week. And then there is a cold weather team hosting a warm weather team in December. Given Arizona’s 5-13 SU and 6-11-1 ATS all-time mark on the NFC North road. The clincher:  Playing Against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Units 4* Big-10 Bash

The Hawkeyes have held the upper hand in this series with the Wolverines, going 15-8-1 ATS as a dog in this series, including 8-2 ATS with an .800 or greater win percentage, and 6-0 ATS when the Maize-and-Blue are coming off back-to-back wins.  In addition, teams entering their conference championship game, coming off a win of 14 or more points, are just 19-29 ATS all-time, including 1-9 ATS against a foe coming off a loss. Next, the favorite in Big Ten title games is 2-8 ATS (1-7 ATS versus .800 or greater foes). Finally, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz brings a 5-0 ATS record as a dog of more than 7 points with a win percentage of .750 or more into the fray. The clincher:  Playing Against any favorite of 6 or more points with a better record than its opponent in its conference championship game – if coming off an ATS win of 15 or more points and facing an .800 or fewer opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1996.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* AAC Championship Cash

Playing high-profile opponents has not been a problem for Cincinnati, either, considering they own a spotless 5-0 ATS record in the last five contests versus .900 or greater opponents. Series history also favors UC, as Houston stands 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS versus the Bearcats, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS here. And despite this year’s success, Cougars coach Holgorsen is only 9-18 SU and 11-16 ATS versus undefeated opposition in his career. The clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992.

Rating: 5 Unit 5* Sun Belt Championship Smash

Much like the Baylor-Oklahoma State contest, these two own very similar numbers in the most important offensive and defensive team stats, but there is one area where the Cajuns own an overwhelming edge: Appalachian State is dead even when it comes to turnover margin in 2021, while Louisiana checks in at +11. In addition to riding an 11-game win streak since an opening season loss at Texas, Louisiana beat ASU by 28 points in mid-October when they held the Mountaineers to a season-low 13 points and 211 yards. The Clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992.

Rating: 3 Unit 3* MWC Championship Whack

New Utah State head coach Blake Anderson made quite the splash in his first season with the Aggies when he took over a one-win team and led them to the MWC championship game. With four SU underdog wins this season, this nineteen returning-starter dog checks all the canine boxes today, including the one where underdogs have bagged the cash 6 of seven times in this conference title game. Sure, Diego has a tough-as-nails defense (313 YPG) that ranks No. 13 in the nation, but the sloth-like offense ranks No. 110, failing to score 20 or more points in each of their last seven contests. And while the sun worshippers are 11-1 on the season, they’re only 5-7 ITS, which means the majority of their wins have been fortuitous. With the pressure squarely on the Aztecs to capture a record-setting victory, the points become the play here today.

Rating: 3 Unit PAC-12 Pounding

Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal is in a tough spot here, going 1-5 SUATS the last six games as a dog of 6 or fewer points when seeking revenge. And with late season coach-poaching currently in high gear (Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly to LSU, Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley to USC), who knows if Cristobal will be lured away by the promise of a bigger payday before this game
even kicks off? We’re pretty secure in the knowledge that Utah’s Whittingham won’t be going anywhere after finishing up his 17th season by the Great Salt Lake, and he owns a 22-12 ATS mark against foes with a better record when the Utes sport a .500 or greater record, including 8-1 ATS against avenging foes. With Utah out-gaining foes by an average of 108 YPG this season, and QB Rising managing games while making very few mistakes, we don’t need a crystal ball to see that Cristobal and his Ducks are going down again.

Rating: 3 Unit

Conference USA title game from San Antonio. This spread has been bobbing up and down between 2.5-3 all day, so let's grab 2.5 now in case it stays at 3. WKU lost a shootout at home to UTSA earlier this season and this one is on the Roadrunners' field, but the Hilltoppers have been dominating every opponent since then. All seven wins during WKU’s streak have been by at least 15 points, with the average margin of victory at 26.4. Bailey Zappe is having one of the best seasons ever by an FBS quarterback. UTSA, meanwhile, has looked sluggish in its past three games (0-3 ATS) and did lose its finale. Maybe the Roadrunners were simply coasting, but I'll take the hot team.

NFL Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Head coach Sean McVay enters this game knowing he is 4-1 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a loss. And speaking of QB dings, despite battling a toe injury, and losing left tackle Elgton Jenkins to injury, Rodgers went 23-of-33 for 385 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s loss at Minnesota, snapping the league’s longest SUATS win skein at 9 this season. The big concern for Rams’ backers is Rodgers’ 41-21-1 ATS career record in games when the Packers are coming off a loss. However, it waters down to 13-11 ATS when he is at home in games with both teams coming off a loss. Cap it off my knowing that playing on any NFL team coming off consecutive SU favorite losses, the last an ATS loss by 12 or more points, if they were a playoff team last year and they are facing a .700 or better opponent is 16-0 ATS since 2006

Rating: 4 UnitNFL Play of the Day

A red-faced Ryan Tannehill was intercepted 4 times (3 times in the 4Q) in last week’s humiliating loss to Houston as the Titans were flagged for looking past the Texans in favor of today’s contest. Our QB League database notes that Tannehill is 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win, including 19-7 ATS as a dog. Note that NFL road dogs coming off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS when taking on a foe coming off a win of 14 or more points. The clincher: Tennessee is 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win under head coach Mike Vrabel, including 5-0 SUATS this season.

Rating: 5 UnitDivisional Game of the Week

The Steelers are 19-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS the last 24 games in this series. They are also 9-2 SUATS away in games in which Cincinnati sports the better record, including 5-0 SUATS when the Black and Gold arrives off a SUATS loss. And making things juicier, when Pittsburgh is coming off a loss and facing Cincinnati coming off a win, the Steelers stand 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the Queen City, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog. Also consider that : Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 27-5-1 SU and 22-11 ATS away in Ohio at Cincinnati and Cleveland, where he played his college ball at Miami Oh, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in games in which Pittsburgh owns the lesser record. To finish it off Cincy is 3-7 ATS as a division home favorite while Pitt is 7-1 ATS as a division road dog.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day

There is not a whole lot on the line in this game for the Bruins – they have qualified for a bowl game (but cannot reach the Pac-12 title game), and they are still basking in the glow of their 62-33 destruction of arch-rival USC. Also, consider that they are 0-6-1 ATS after taking on the Trojans, 0-5-1 ATS in Game Twelve, and 1-7 ATS as home chalk of less than 10 points. Therefore, this becomes the ideal spot for the Bears, who still need a pair of wins (although next week doesn’t matter unless they score a victory here) to earn their bowl stripes. On top of that, they have owned this series spread-wise, going 12-4-1 ATS as a dog, and overall are 6-0 ATS as road dogs of 10 or fewer points. In addition, the Bears are 21-8 ATS as an underdog with head coach Justin Wilcox, including 7-0 ATS when the Bears own a losing record.

Rating: 5 Unit  Big-12 Game of the Week

Okies a step behind normally overpowering "O", with 3 take aways greasing skids for escape vs Iowa St (25-15 first down & 362-306 yard deficits). Oklahoma St "D" has been immovable, ranking 3rd, 4th, & 2nd in total, rushing, scoring. A 165-23 pt edge L4 tilts. Repaying 6 straight losses. Consider as well that playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980

Rating 5 UnitsBig-10 Game of the Week

Our numbers for this game clearly put the Spartans at a disadvantage, including a 0-5 ATS mark after playing Ohio State, and a 0-4 home record against the number when they have conference revenge. On the flip side, regardless of the outcome of this game, neither team can improve or regress in the standings of the Big Ten East Division when the 7-4 / 4-4 Lions invade East Lansing to take on the 9-2 / 6-2 Spartans. With that being the case, you know it’s a much more important result for PSU as far as bowl positioning is concerned. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in LRGs, as well as 4-1 ATS away versus conference revenge. PSU’s 26thranked defense (335 YPG) is also leagues better than MSU’s 119th rated stop-unit (463 YPG)... and therein lies your edge. Consider as well that Penn State head coach James Franklin is 30-4 SU and 27-7 ATS in games when coming off a win versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 14-2 SU and 15-1 ATS versus greater-than .400 foes.

Rating: 2 Units

OSU HC Day is  33-3 SU and 21-14-1 ATS in all games, including 24-0 SU and 16-8 ATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season, as well as 12-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS away. As for today’s all-the-marbles matchup, Ohio State is 7-1 ATS of late as road chalk of 8 or fewer points (check line), while Michigan owns a dreadful 0-8-1 ATS mark as a conference home dog of 10 or less points. We could go on, but with Harbaugh just 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS as a dog against .900 or greater opponents, Michigan will be little more than a speed bump at the Big House, as the Buckeyes barrel towards the Big Ten title game, and a spot in the CFB Playoff.

Rating: 5 Unit  Upset of the Week

Wake has limped to the barn at the end of the season many times, 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS, and a frightening 0-5 SUATS versus teams coming off a SUATS loss. The Demon Deacons are also 3-12 ATS in the back half of back-to-back conference roadies. Meanwhile the Boston Brawlers are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of 4 or more, 15-3 ATS versus conference opponents they defeated in a most recent meeting, as well as 8-3 ATS vs .800 or greater vs. conference opponents. They have thrived since QB Phil Jurevic returned. Consider that playing on  any .500 or greater college football conference home dog coming off one loss-exact if they lost SU as a favorite from Game Seven out if they allow 24.5 or fewer PPG and they average more than 120 rushing yards per game if they are facing an .800 or greater opponent that allows 17.5 or more PPG who won fewer than 12 games last season is 15-0 ATS since 1980. Wake Forest needs a M-U-S-T W-I-N, but we see U-P-S-E-T instead.

Rating: 2 Units

The oddsmakers have installed Washington State as the favorite in this game, despite the fact they are 1-7 ATS as a favorite in this series, as well as 3-13 SU in their last sixteen games at Husky Stadium. At 4-7, the only place Washington is going is home after this contest, but there is no better incentive for a bitter rival than to dress up as the underdog at home – and put a pin in the balloon of its hated rival. Meanwhile, UDub sports the nation’s No. 20 overall defense, one that is 69 YPG superior than its adversary, and the Huskies are 6-1 SUATS as home dogs of fewer than 2.5 points. Yes, WSU had gone 3-1 ATS away this year when seeking revenge, but that number is trumped by Washington’s red-hot 6-0 SUATS series run.

Rating: 2 Units

We like fading teams off record-setting performances, and with the Pac-12 title game on deck for Utah, we figure head coach Kyle Whittingham will go vanilla here before tangling with Oregon, Oregon State or Washington State. Helping Colorado’s chances is the Utes’ mediocre 3-8 ATS effort in their last eleven games against .333 or less conference opponents. Conflicting trends show the Buffs are 0-5 ATS in recent series results, but 4-1 ATS as dogs of more than 14 points in the final game of the season. In addition, coach Dorrell is 23-12 ATS when taking points, including 11-3 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win. The bottom line is Utah will be content with a ‘W’ while the Buffaloes have plenty of room to roam inside the 24-point impost

Rating: 2 Units

Last year at this time the Chanticleers were undefeated and clinched a perfect regular season with a road win-no-cover at Troy, but they were denied an opportunity to win a Sun Belt title game when it was postponed due to COVID. This year, they take a 9-2 ledger into Mobile as they will once again be spectators for the conference title bout. With it, they may find it difficult getting up for an opponent that is riding an 0-3 SUATS streak. There will be no shortage of incentive for the 5-6 Jags, though, as they’re looking to pick up a win to become bowl-eligible, after going 9-26 SU the previous three seasons. A 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record in lined home gams since joining the FBS, including three SU underdog wins the last four years, catches our fancy. With CCU still warm and fuzzy from sending the seniors off in Conway last week, we’ll back a starving dog in South Alabama that stands a perfect 6-0 ATS of late as a home dog of 7 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

While the Pirates are 2-10 ATS versus undefeated conference opponents, they
are playing their best ball of the season – riding a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS streak – and should be considered as dangerous as a ship full of cutthroat thieves, especially with Cincinnati just 1-6 ATS of late as a road favorite of 8 or more points. The Bearcats absolutely destroyed ECU in the Queen City last year, 55-17, so head coach Mike Houston and his Pirates should be primed for payback in their final home game of 2021. Factor in that the series host is on a 5-0 ATS streak, and that East Carolina is currently 4-0 ATS as a home dog of more than seven points, and we look for UC to have its timbers shivered in an uncomfortably close contest.

Rating: 2 Units

New Mexico will be scoreboard watching, only the Lobos will be looking at the time remaining in this game, so they can finally call an end to a miserable 3-9 season. The campaign started with some degree of promise at 2-0, but those wins came against Houston Baptist and New Mexico state, and a step up in class resulted in a 1-8 SU slide. Even worse, if we throw out the Houston Baptist game, UNM has torched the money big-time this year, going 1-9 ATS.  Meanwhile, Utah State should be mad as hell after getting ambushed by the Wyoming Cowboys last week, losing 44-17 as 6-point chalk, and the Aggies have cashed four straight tickets in the series. And with USU head coach Blake Anderson now 23-3 SU and 18-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite, the likelihood of an upset is next to nil

Rating: 3 Units

Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in this series of late when coming off a SUATS loss, they’re also an impressive 6-0-1 ATS as road favorites or road dogs of 3 or less points. Head coach Chris Klieman does not suffer SUATS losses lightly, going 6-1 ATS in his last seven tries in that role. Coach K also boasts an 11-3 SU and 10-2 ATS mark versus .500 or fewer foes, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS the last eight. And we can’t forget last year’s horrific 69-31 loss to Texas, especially with the Horns now 3-8 ATS at home versus a revenging conference opponent. We can almost hear the “Bring Back Herman” chants as you read this. Consider that college Football teams on a 6-game-exact losing streak are 3-22 SU and 8-15 ATS at home in their final game of the regular season, including 0-5 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of fewer than 3 points.

Rating: 3 Units

Siemian owns an 88.9 QB Rating in his four starts this season, throwing 8 TDs and 2 INTs. He is also 9-5 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in his NFL home starts, including 4-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss of more than 3 points. More important, the Saints are 5-0 ATS in this series, as well as 7-0-1 ATS as home dogs of fewer than 6 points. Knowing that New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog – and provided New Orleans shakes the injury bug – look for the Saints to improve to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on Thanksgiving Day here tonight. Consider that playing on any .500 or greater NFL non-division home dog who was a playoff team last year if they’ve won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games and they’re facing a foe coming off an ATS loss of 7 or more points is 14-1-1 since 1996.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulldogs find themselves in another payback situation tonight, falling in last year’s Egg Bowl, 31-24. That works well with the Rebels’ money-burning 3-8 ATS record when taking on foes playing with conference revenge. Ole Miss has ridden the Lane Train to an impressive 9-2 SU record this season, but head coach Kiffin is only 3-10 ATS in games with the better record when coming off consecutive wins. And in case you missed Mississippi State’s win over Auburn, you missed a totally unflappable coach in Leach, never losing his cool despite his team starting in a 28-3 hole, then ripping off 40 unanswered points to beat the Tigers, 43-34. In tonight’s annual slugfest between two of the seven SEC teams dotting the College Football Playoff Rankings, we’ll stick with Professor Leach and MSU’s 13-1 ATS success in the second of back-to-back home games.

5* NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 3 Units

We realize the Monsters of the Midway tend to stay in a deep sleep following Bye weeks, but a four-game losing streak has the natives restless. The price range also puts the Bears in a good situation, as they’re 8-2 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 4 or more points, while bumbling Baltimore shows up 0-5 ATS as non-division road favorites of more than 3 points. Like Shakira’s hips, these numbers don’t lie.

4* NFC Division Game of the Day

Kirk Cousins had a fine day in leading the Vikings past the Chargers last Sunday, when he completed 25-of-37 passes for 294 yards and two touchdowns, as the Vikes moved up to the No. 8 seed position in this year’s NFL playoff picture, as they now trail the Pack by 3.5 games in the NFC North. With it, we love fading teams with huge leads in divisional matchups, especially against those that are scratching and clawing to earn a playoff berth. Green Bay’s lousy rush defense allows 4.6 Yards Per Rush, which fits like a glove into Minnesota’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Consider that Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 10-4 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 4-0 ATS in division games. Also playing against any .400 or greater NFL Road Favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more yards Per Rush if the beat the spread by more than 6 points and scored 27 or fewer points in its last game, if they are facing a .444 or less opponent that averages 3.5 or more Yards Per Rush is 21-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

OSU’s tough-as-nails defense has limited five foes to a season low yardage, including each of the last three games. The Pokes are ranked third in the country in Total Defense (4.58 yards per play allowed), are tied with Marshall for the top spot in Sacks (37), and allow just 14.8 fi rst downs per contest (ranked 5th). They held TCU QB Chandler Morris to just 103 yards passing in Saturday’s 63-17 win, one week after Morris lit up Baylor for 461 yards. Consider that the 'Pokes are getting better by the week, as 9-0 ATS & 10-1 SU runs attest.

Rating: 3 Units

Kyle Whittingham has made Utah a West Coast powerhouse, and no fun to play at all, but despite his great work over the years, Kyle is just 10-18 ATS versus .900 or greater opponents, including 2-11 ATS as the favorite. Oregon won at Ohio State earlier this year, and winning a game at the Horseshoe is a Get Out of Jail Free card in our minds. Ducks’ Head Coach Mario Cristobal, the dream candidate in the hearts of Miami Hurricanes fans hyperventilating to replace Manny Diaz, is 6-1 SUATS away versus .700 or greater foes. Much like Baron Von Raschke applying the Claw to another helpless opponent in the ring. Consider that Cristobal is 32-12 SU in games with the better record, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Back-to-back SUATS losses to a pair of I’s (Illinois and Iowa) have knocked the boat-rowers out of the water; however, IU presents a great chance to get the oars in the water again. The Hoosiers have had a miserable fall after 2020. Indiana stands 2-8 / 0-7, including 0-4 ITS (In the Stats) in the last four games, and are surrendering 192 YPG more than what they gained. IU has gone bowling the last two seasons, and this season they will also have time to go bowling, play bocce, and fi nd out if Mike Woodson is the right choice for Hoosiers hoops. It’s not an easy fi x for Hoosier football, and we don’t have the solution here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ITS (In the Stats) in their last six games, after beginning the season holding opponents to seasonlow or second low yardage in the fi rst six. Iowa is also a shaky 2-9 ATS as a conference home favorite of more than 10 points, and are 1-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. In the blue corner we have the Illini, who are 4-1 ATS on the road after a bye. Dick Butkus’ alma mater is also 7-2 ATS as a conference road dog of 17 or fewer points. While Iowa is leaking oil, our very own “impervious to leaks” Well Oiled Machine says 4-6 teams coming off a win, while taking double digits in Game Eleven of the season, are a Chunky Soup hearty 35-20-1 ATS since 1980,

4* Big-12 Play of the Day

Iowa State is a solid 5-1 ATS away with conference revenge, and 4-1 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, the deflated Sooners have the look of “bubble burst” written all over them after falling to the Baylor Bears, and we’ll look for the Clones to stick another pin in their balloon today, especially since Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS at home in this series when coming off a SU favorite loss. The Sooners are also 6-10 ATS in games when coming off their first loss of the season, including 2-7 ATS versus foes who allow fewer than 23 PPG. ISU head coach Matt Campbell going against teams coming off an upset loss, is 6-0 ATS as a dog when facing an opponent that was upset as a favorite, as well as 8-2 ATS in games when his team was upset. Also, playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 since 1980.

5* MWC Game of the Week

The Wolf Pack is yet another team that appears to have hit the wall, going 2-2 the past four games following a 5-1 start to the season. Nevada is also 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS as a dog or as a favorite of fewer than 4 points versus military teams. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun checks in with a 10-4 ATS mark as a dog against foes with an identical record. Consider as well, that .700 teams playing in Game 11 pretty much have their holiday bowl plans in the making, it is also a major letdown time for these teams dressing up without rest as contented home favorites in these contests. That’s confirmed by the fact that these chalk artists are just 74-82-1 ATS (47%) in this role since 1980. And when these teams are coming off a loss and facing .500 or greater opponents, they fall to 11-26 ATS. Worse, these teams tumble to 1-14 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals annihilated Syracuse at home last week, 41-3, and will win their 2021 golden bowl ticket by dropping another ‘L’ on the Duke tonight. The 5-5 Cards are relieved to see the Blue Devils here with Kentucky on deck, as they’ve torched the Devils in each of their only other two meetings in this series, winning both games by an average score of 32-9. We certainly can’t go into battle against that armed only with Duke’s near-lifeless 0-19 SU and 7-12 ATS mark as a 20-point or larger home dog.

Rating: 2 Units

When Eastern Michigan hosts Western Michigan in Mac action tonight they will do so knowing the eagles are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in Last Home Games when not coming off a double-digit loss and hosting a foe coming off a spread loss.  EMU is also 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on Tuesdays in conference play, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog. With the visiting Broncos riding a 0-4 ATS losing skid as favorites on Tuesdays in MAC games, we're going with EMU tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

As far as the Rams are concerned, they will be monitoring QB Matthew Stafford’s inured back. At halftime last week he was just 9-of-16 for 62 yards and the pair of picks. A bigger problem looms on the other sideline where slumping San Francisco is just 1-11 the last dozen games when playing at home in Santa Clara. Frisco appears destined for its sixth losing season in seven years. With Los Angeles 5-1 ATS as a division road favorite of late, and the Niners 0-4 SUATS at home this season, as well as 1-3 SUATS in their last four games under the Monday Night lights, we’ll back the better team tonight.

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

The Vikings went up 17-3 just prior to halftime, but some more miserable time management allowed the Ravens to score a touchdown in the final seconds before intermission (that’s on you, Mike Zimmer). Still, the much-maligned Cousins had a nice performance, despite the loss, as he went 17-of-28 for 187 yards and two passing TDs and a running touchdown. The bottom line is Minnesota’s season – and possibly Zimmer’s job – is on the line in this contest. With seven of Minny’s eight games this season having been decided by 8 or fewer points, including three overtime sessions, we’ll take a look at the fact that Minnesota is 15-5-1 ATS as a dog in non-division games when coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer, including 9-1-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

QB Tom Brady is 20-4 SU against everyone other than New Orleans since joining the Bucs, but only 1-3 SU versus the Saints. On the other side of the field, the WFT enters on a 0-4 SUATS slide knowing that head coach Ron Rivera is 12-1 ATS against the NFC South (his former division) when his troops are coming off a SUATS loss. And speaking of the NFC South, Washington sports a 12-3 ATS log as a dog of more than 3 points against this division. With the Bucs 0-5-2 ATS versus NFC East opponents, and Ron Rivera is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS during the regular season in his NFL career against foes coming off a Bye, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS versus non-division foes, we have to go with the WFT.

Rating: 4 unit NFL Mismatch of the Week

New Orleans dropped 22 points on Atlanta in the 4th quarter to take the lead, after trailing by 18, then failed on a 2-point conversion to leave the door open for a field goal win by the Falcons. That’s exactly what happened, so we expect to see a frustrated bunch of Saints in Music City this afternoon, taking it out on a Tennessee team that suddenly looks unbeatable. We know better. The visiting squad in this series has cashed four straight tickets, and the chest-puffing Titans have collapsed after rumbling with the Rams, going 1-6 ATS of late. Also consider that NFL teams coming off four consecutive underdog wins in a row are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS since 1999 as a favorite the following game.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Upset of the Week

The plain truth is that the Steelers’ Monday Night win over Chicago featured one of  the worst-officiated games we have ever seen. The officials seemingly did everything in their power to decide this outcome. The greatest offense by the officials occurred when the Bears seemingly forced a punt in the fourth quarter. Cassius Marsh sacked Roethlisberger on third down, but Marsh was flagged for taunting – even though he only stared at Pittsburgh’s bench. He didn’t even say anything! Yet, the flag was thrown. Chances are the same crew won’t be working this game, which could be bad news for Detroit. No problem, we say, as the Lions are a hearty 8-1 ATS with rest, while Aged Beef Ben and his charges have gone 2-5 ATS after Monday Nighters. The win-starved Lions should want this more, and if Roethlisberger is as tired as he looked on Monday, Detroit has a great opportunity to get off the 0-8 schneid. Also consider that playing on any winless NFL with rest from Game Five out team versus a .500 or greater opponent if the opponent is not coming off a double-digit win is 13-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Units

It’s true the Terps have pitched a no-no in conference games this season (0-6 ATS), but head coach Mike Locksley is 2-0 ATS in his career in games against foes coming off a SU favorite loss – and a hard loss it was, as the Spartans had their undefeated “bubble burst” in the loss at Purdue. Despite Michigan State’s surprising success in 2021, the Spartans are just 1-6 ATS as Big Ten chalk of more than seven points, and 2-7 ATS at home versus conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Terps have cashed in three of their last four games against MSU, and the visitor in this series is on a 3-0 ATS run. Consider that playing againts any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its inital loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 11-2 ATS since 1980..

Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week

Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin brings is a 13-23 SU and 16-20 ATS career mark into games against opponents with a better win percentage, including 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS versus .875 or greater foes. This will mark the fourth time in the last five years these two teams will meet as ranked teams, so neither side should find the stage too large. However, to Michigan’s credit, the Maize-and-Blue did not buckle beneath the weight of the “bubble burst” following the contested loss against Sparty, methodically grinding out a 29-7 win over Indiana last Saturday, holding the Hoosiers to just 195 total yards. The feeling here is the Wolverines are the better team, and they’ll be out to avenge a season-ending home loss to the Lions last year, one that denied them a .500 campaign. Consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 40-8
SU and 30-18 ATS when coming off a win and owning the better record, including 10-1 SUATS when facing greater than .600 opponents.

Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day

OU is still unbeaten but not ATS under Riley, instead they’re a middling 9-14 in that category. There is one Jimmy the Greek style checkmark in the Sooners column, a powerful 14-2 ATS mark as road chalk of 8 or fewer. BU is coming off a surprise loss to TCU last week but in their series with OU, Da Bears are 3-0 ATS in the last three and 7-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a loss. In conference revenge games, Baylor is a sturdy 10-2 ATS, plus, BU is 20-5 SUATS in Waco since 2011 against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS as the dog. It’s only the eighth time in this long series both teams have been ranked, all of them since 2011, and OU is 4-3. Consider that since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Nine out facing .700 or greater opponents are just 49-50 SU and 40-57-3 (41.2%). Say hello to Oklahoma. Worse, these same guys have seen their necks snap like they’re swinging from the gallows pole when they’re installed as road favorites of 4 or more points, falling to 14-31 ATS. And when installed as favorites of 4 or more points when coming off a win of 20 or more points, they drop to 16-13 SU and SU and 7-22 ATS in these games, including 6-7 SU and 1-12 ATS against foes that were favored by more than 7 points in their last game

Rating: 2 Units

Once again, Jacoby Brissett filled in for peanut brittle Tua Tagovailoa, who sat the game out with a broken finger. Interestingly, 11 of the 16 AFC teams own winning records after nine weeks of the season while just one team in this matchup checks that box. Lamar Jackson became the first NFL quarterback this season to win three games after trailing by double-digits, digging the Ravens out of a 17-3, second-quarter hole with both his arm (266 yards, three touchdowns) and his legs (120 yards on 21 carries). The bottom line is Miami is 0-3 ATS in its last three games when coming off a win, and 1-4 SUATS on Thursdays. Next to Baltimore’s 8-0 ATS record in this series, 7-1 ATS mark in its last eight games versus the AFC East, and 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS on Thursdays.

Rating: 2 Units

A check of the ATS archives reveals a lot of Carolina blue goose eggs: 0-5 ATS Weekdays, 0-5 ATS after Wake Forest, and 0-5 ATS before a non-conference home game. Remember, teams who knock off a 7-0 or greater opponent are just 40-60-3 ATS when on the road the next game, including 1-9 ATS the past two seasons. And when this year’s Tar Heels don’t win, they don’t cover, as all four of their losses were both SU and ATS. We fully expect another shootout tonight between Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and UNC QB Sam Howell, but with both of Pitt’s previous SU losses taking place at Heinz Field, the Panthers have extra incentive to make amends with a strong performance here. With Pittsburgh boasting a 6-1 ATS log in Weekday games, we're siding with the Panthers.

Rating: 2 Units

Tomlin has been unable to get his troops to fully focus under the Monday Night lights where they are 1-4 ATS at home under his lead in non-division contests, including 0-3 ATS when coming off a win. For Chicago, it was another week of frustration, as they enter this contest on a 0-3 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats) slide. Despite failed fourth-quarter drives, QB Justin Fields still had a solid performance in a losing cause against San Francisco last week, going 19-of-27 for 175 yards, one touchdown and the pick. He also scrambled 10 times for 103 rushing yards and another score. However, Chicago brings a 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS ledger in games against the AFC North, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS with a losing record into this battle.

Rating: 3 Units

Titans are 5-0 ATS as a dog versus .800 or greater opponents, as well as 5-0-1 ATS in this series. For the Rams, sometimes NFL scores can be misleading. This is one of those instances. The Rams dominated the Houston game from start to finish, eventually leading 38-0 before allowing the Texans 22 unanswered points in junk time. However, they will need to exert more of themselves against this red-hot juggernaut today. With a Monday night fight up next against division rival San Francisco, and just 2-8 ATS before Monday nighters, look for the Rams to fall tonight. Consider that NFL Sunday Night dogs of more than 7 points are 18-4 ATS when facing a non-division foe coming off a win of more than 14 points.

Rating: 4 UnitInter-Conference Play of the Day

For what it’s worth, the most lucrative situation in the NFL this year has been that of road dogs coming off a win of 6 or more points. That’s because these dogs are 12-6 SU and 15-3 ATS season to date. Sure, the resurgent Cowboys are 3-0 ATS at home this year, but they’re still dragging  a 3-10 ATS log as non-division home favorites of 10 or fewer points. Will Prescott make it back? Or will Rush be asked to save the day again? We’re ambivalent since we’re backing a Broncos team that’s gone 5-0 ATS as non-division road dogs of 5 or more points. Consider that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-5 ATS away as an NFL starter, including 10-0 ATS versus winning opponents.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

 Although Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has been taking a lot of heat this year, he’s still 41-21 ATS as a dog in his CFB and NFL careers, plus he’s 4-1 ATS as a dog with the Panthers against foes coming off consecutive wins. The Pats are just 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) in their last five games, so with or without Darnold behind center, we can’t wait to capitalize on the fact that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 9-12 SUATS away in games when coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite.

Rating: 6 Unit Upset of the Year

Teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 26-36 SU and 24-37-1 ATS versus division foes the following game, including 19-36 SUATS when not favored by 7 or more points. So now the Saints are 5-2 and hoping to have Winston back and healthy to face Brady and the Bucs when it really counts – in January. In addition,  the visiting team is 4-2 SUATS of late in this series. Toss in the “beat the Super Bowl champ” letdown factor, as teams in division game who upset the defending champs are just 15-25 SU and13-27 ATS since 1990.  The clincher: playing on any .400 or greater NFL division dog playing with triple revenge is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

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Rating: 4 Unit CFB Upset of the Day

UTEP battled back from a 28-10 4Q deficit to fall, 28-25, at Florida Atlantic last week, but at 6-2 this season, the Miners will be bowling for the fi rst time since 2014. Why, you ask? Because they are 7-1 ITS (In The Stats), winning the stats by +100 YPG, and are 4-2 ATS as double-digit pups over the past two seasons. Will another double-digit dog pull an upset this week? A total of 34 FBS games have fallen into that category this season and this has a strong possibility of being another.  Consider as well that playing against any 7-0 or greater college football dog road favorite coming off a week of rest if they are facing a .444 or greater opponent that is not coming off a win of 7 or more points is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week

The 5-3 Boilermakers are 6-2 ITS (In The Stats) this season, winning the stats by an average of 72 net YPG. They beat a Top 10-ranked Iowa team three weeks ago, and are looking to do the same here today. Consider this: the Spartans are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in post-Michigan meetings in which they managed to score 30 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in games in which MSU allows more than 20 PPG. They are also 1-5 SUATS after taking on UM in games in which they coughed up 30-plus points. Can you spell L-E-T-D-O-W-N? Also consider that playing against any college football road favorite who won SU as an underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent in its last game is o 4-20 ATS in this role from Game Seven out. And if this is a conference game, they drop to 3-18 ATS.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Mismatch

On the heels of back-to-back wins, call this a crucial game for the 3-5
/ 2-3 Bears, who have fared quite well as a visitor under head coach
Justin Wilcox, going 7-0 ATS on the highway when coming off a win. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have been dominated by the Bears in this series, at just 7-19 ATS, including 1-9 ATS when the Bears own a losing record. Zona is 0-8 on the season in Jedd Fisch’s first year, and while they hung tough at USC last week, losing 41-34, they have surrendered season-high yardage in two of
their last three games.

Rating: 3 Units

North Carloina takes the field here with a 22-38 ATS mark versus undefeated opponents, including 0-7 SUATS after allowing 35 or more points in his team’s previous game. The inconsistent Heels have won back-to-back games just once this year, but to their credit, they have not lost two consecutive games, either. That starts today as you consider that Head coach Dave Clawson is 24-12 ATS against conference foes without a winning record, including 5-0 ATS when his team sports a .800 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 5 UnitCFB Game of the Week

The 44-37 defeat was the first loss of the season for SMU, and Dykes now runs into another prolific passing attack in Memphis, ranked 18th in the nation (296 YPG). He is also 4-11 ATS as conference road chalk, including 0-4 ATS versus greater than .333 opponents. Meanwhile, Memphis had covered six straight times in this series until getting nipped last season, 30-27, on a field goal at the final gun. That sets up a conference revenge situation for the Tigers, a role in which they are 4-1 ATS at home. In addition, at 4-4 on the season, Ryan Silverfield’s squad is battling to earn a bowl bid for the eighth year in a row. A win today will help, and so does the fact that SMU is 2-9 ATS as a conference road favorite of 17 or fewer points, including 0-4 ATS from Game Nine out. Better yet, playing against any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its initial loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

The Colts are in must-win mode as they enter a two-game stretch of games against the lowly Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. Indianapolis lost 34-31 in overtime to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Quarterback Carson Wentz threw one interception with less than two minutes left in regulation and another in overtime. The Jets come into this one off a big win but that euphoria may be short-lived, as they arrive in Indianapolis with an 0-3 ATS mark in Thursday action, and a 1-7 SUATS failure when coming off a win as a 7-point or larger dog. The Colts counter with a 14-4-1 ATS effort on Thursdays, and a near-perfect 5-0-1 ATS mark after tangling with the Titans.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chiefs give up an NFL-high 6.6 yards per play. Even though we can expect a bounceback from the K.C. offense -- it helps that Giants safety Jabrill Peppers is out -- the Chiefs' defense will leave the backdoor open. New York has already covered at Washington and New Orleans (outright win). The Giants got blown out at Dallas but that was a game in which Daniel Jones got knocked out early. Back New York to improve to 23-7 in its last 30 as a road dog.

Rating; 3 Units

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is still frothing following last season’s 31-28 home loss to Dallas as 7-point chalk, a loss to backup QB Andy Dalton that snapped a 3-game Vikings win streak, as well as a 4-game Dallas losing skid. In the end it eventually cost the 7-9 Vikings a losing season. Now back at the scene of the crime, Minny will look to improve on its 10-2 ATS series ledger, while Zimmer looks to pad his 16-3-1 ATS career mark at home against .500 or greater non-division foes. The Boys’ 11-17 SU and 9-19 ATS record against NFC North foes since 2009 adds another log to the fire. In addition, consider that 5-1 NFL teams in Game Seven, coming off five wins in a row, are 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS since 1980 if not favored by more than 3 points, including 0-6 SUATS versus sub .600 opponents.

Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week

The Brady numbers become dizzying, and at some point we anticipate seeing some degree of regression. It actually happened in his final season with New England when he concluded the season with a career-low 55.7 QBR. But the move to Tampa was akin to finding the Fountain of Youth. Today, though, he takes on a team he knocked out of the NFC playoffs last season, and for that, we expect him to pay the piper. For openers, the Saints are 10-3-1 ATS as home dogs dating back to 2006, including 6-1-1 ATS with head coach Sean Payton. The Bourbon Street gang is also 5-0 SUATS in its last five regular season meetings with the Bucs. And if that’s not enough, consider that Payton is an annuity when it comes to exacting revenge in division games, going 23-12 SU and 24-11 ATS, including 18-2 ATS as a favorite or dog.

Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day

The Huskies have taken care of business in this series, going 4-1-1 ATS off a win when Stanford is coming off a loss of 3 or more points. Washington is also 4-1 ATS as a conference dog coming off a SU win and a double-digit ATS loss. Those situations were all set up by an embarrassing first half (65 total yards and zero points) against Arizona, one of the very worst teams in the nation. This, very irritated Washington fans have been calling for back-up QB Sam Huard, but the truth is Dylan Morris got his act together just in time to pull out the win over the Cats. Still, this year’s 3-4 SU record indicates that Jimmy Lake is not the answer in Seattle. With the Huskies looking to avenge a pair of losses to Stanford over the past two seasons as double-digit favorites, we hand it off to the clincher where playing on any 17 or more returning starter college football dog with revenge coming off consecutive ATS losses if they are facing a sub .450 opponent coming off consecutive losses is 19-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 5 Unit SEC Game of the Week

Kentucky is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye week, and after this Starkville trip, they must still face Tennessee and Louisville, so any hopes of a Top 10 finish after that 6-0 start (last accomplished in 1977) are quickly fading away. As for the Starkville Bulldogs, last year’s horror show in Lexington came in the midst of a 4-game losing skid, as the Dogs dropped a 24-2 decision to the Cats, the second-lowest point production by a Mike Leach team in his career. Revenge is tasty, but so is the Halloween candy that the Mad Professor munches on yearly,
so there’s no doubt he should wake up to a plastic pumpkin full of candy corn and gummy bears tomorrow morning if he can pull off this upset. MSU has held four foes to season-low or second-low yards this season, but here’s what to consider that Leach is 4-2 SUATS at home off two previous home losses, including 3-0 SUATS if .500 or greater.

Rating: 3 Units

Florida had lost three straight in this rivalry until a big 44-28 win last year in Jacksonville. Both teams have had a bye to prepare this year, and I don’t think top-ranked Georgia is very happy about last year's loss. I also don’t think Florida is as bad as it showed in a 49-42 upset at LSU two weeks ago. I’m expecting the Gators' two QBs to have trouble, turn the ball over and the Dawgs to capitalize. Georgia has the nation's No. 1 defense, allowing only 6.6 ppg.

Rating: 3 Units Big-12 Game of the Week

Yes, Jim Harbaugh can call on revenge from last year’s 27-24 loss to the Spartans as 21-point home chalk, but the fact is Michigan has covered just once in its last five tries when playing with conference revenge. While the Wolverines have taken exceptional care of the football this season with only four turnovers in seven games, we look for a flying-all-over-the-field MSU ‘D’ to force a few key errors that turn the tide in their favor. With that, consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS away versus undefeated opponents. In addition playing on any 5-0 or greater college football dog coming off a SUATS win if they are facing an undefeated opponent that is coming off a win of 24 or more points if they defeated the undefeated opponent ni their most recent meeting is 12-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Units

Tulane comes in ranked 128th in three important defensive categories – Total D (493 YPG), Scoring D (42.9 PPG) and Passing Defense (300 YPG). Pretty horrible since there are only 130 teams! In fact, it’s been a very long time since the Green Wave traveled to Norman to open the season and gave the Sooners everything they could handle in a 5-point loss. Now they have dropped five straight contests, with a tidal wave of points allowed (40 or more in four of the five defeats), along with season high – or 2nd high – yards in those games. Consider that Tulane is 1-11 ATS at home coming off a conference loss of more than 28 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Tulsa shows up with a below .500 record, after five consecutive losses, both SU and against the spread. Tulsa has also dumped four straight ATS decisions on this field to Navy, and the series host is on an unlucky 1-7 ATS slide. Now in his 14th year with Navy and pulling down a salary of $2.3 million per season, Niumatalolo knows he can hang onto his job if the Midshipmen continue to play with the same intensity they displayed against the Bearcats. It won’t be easy: after tonight, Navy plays three of its final four games away from Annapolis versus Notre Dame, Temple, and Army. Regardless, we think Tulsa shouldn’t be laying double digits to the Middies here, especially with a playoff revenger against No. 2 Cincinnati waiting on deck. Take the points.

Rating: 4 Unit TNF Game of the Week

The Cardinals, the league’s sole unbeaten team, and currently 7-0 for the first time since 1974 under head coach Don Coryell (why isn’t he in the NFL HOF?). As always, in matters of great importance like this game, we note the Packers are 5-0 ATS versus undefeated NFC West opponents. On the flip side, NFL 7-0 favorites are 0-3 SUATS in Game Eight versus .700 or greater non-division opponents since 1980, while Arizona QB Murray is 1-5 ATS as a non-division home favorite of fewer than 7 points. In conclusion, take the points and relax. Also consider that Green Bay QB Rodgers is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win.

Rating: 2 Units

Geno Smith, following last week’s winning ticket, is 8-5 ATS as a dog in games in which his team is coming off a loss. Seattle was losing 14-0 at intermission, as they produced just 65 net yards of offense compared to 177 for the Steelers, as Pittsburgh was in complete control of the game. However, Seattle made some amazing adjustments at halftime. The bottom line is we can’t ignore the fact that head coach Pete Carroll is 33-13 SU and 30-13-3 ATS at home in games in which his team does not sport a winning record, including 14-5-1 ATS as a dog.

Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Month

The fact of the matter is the Colts’ two wins this season have come against the likes of Houston and Miami, 2-10 combined on the year with 10 successive losses in a row. Enter the nasty Niners, coming off a bye week on a three game
losing skid, while sporting the better ‘O’ and ‘D’ in this contest. Frisco is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS of late against AFC South opposition. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo back after being sidelined the last six quarters with a calf injury, look for him to improve on his 20-7 SU and 16-11 ATS career mark against non-division foes here tonight. Finally consider that the 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 5-0 ATS In his NFL career when coming off three losses in a row.

Rating: 5 Unit Blowout

Figure the Ravens will not let the success of the last two home wins the past two weeks cut short their five-game win skein, not behind a burgeoning defense that has held three of its last four opponents to season-low yards. To confirm those thoughts, consider that NFL teams in the 3rd of a 3-game home stand, with a bye week on deck, are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS during the regular season. Playing on any NFL home team coming off consecutive home games who has a week of rest on deck if they scored more than 3 points in their last game and they are facing an opponent coming off a win of more than 7 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day

McDermott was going for the win, and given how well Tennessee was moving the chains in the second half, he likely would’ve lost in overtime had the Titans won the coin toss. He was taking matters into his own hands. His own hands failed him, but the gutsy call should be admired because many NFL coaches are too conservative. With it all, consider that defending Super Bowl losers are 2-12 ATS as non-division favorites when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-10-2 ATS when facing a foe with revenge.

Rating: 4 Units

Don't look now, but we've got another non-Power Five squad attaching itself to a Top 25 ranking, these Roadrunners, who are just 20 pts from a 20-3 spread run (actually 17-6-1). Dog is 13-4 (5-0 this year) ATS in Bulldog games, but Tech can't run (#99), & Kendall just 10 TDs with 8 INTs

Rating: 3 Units

Western Michigan is only 6-12-1 ATS as road chalk in MAC action when coming off a SUATS win, including 0-4-1 ATS the last five. Not so for Rockets head coach Jason Candle, who is 3-1 SUATS with UT when coming off back-to-back losses, including 3-0 SUATS when not installed as a double-digit dog. We also prefer Toledo’s 34-10 SU record in the last 44 conference home games, as opposed to WMU’s awful 3-12 SU skid in this series when playing on the road. With the Rockets’ season on the line, we’ll turn it over to the nation’s top-ranked team in returning production – with added backing from the fact that Toledo is 5-0 ATS since 2000 as a conference home dog against an opponent coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 4 Unit SEC Play of the Day

Mississippi is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games with conference revenge, and 3-9 versus the number as SEC chalk of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, LSU is 4-1 ATS as road dogs of less than 10 points and has covered the spread 4 of the last five meetings in this series. Consider that  LSU coach Orgeron is 27-11 ATS in conference games against foes with a better record, including 11-0 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in his previous game.

Rating: 4 Units

Rice was expected to wake up this season but hasn’t followed the script, entering today’s game at 2-4 on the season. And don’t get too excited about that pair of victories, since they came against the likes of Texas Southern and Southern Miss (1-6). Meanwhile, the host in this series is 8-1 ATS with the Blazers 5-0 ATS at home. In addition, Bill Clark is 25-5 SU and 18-7 ATS at home as the head man with the Blazers, including 21-1 SU and 15-2-1 ATS versus .600 or less foes. We’re defi nitely not about to step in front of that with these sleepy visitors

Rating: 5 Unit CFB Game of the Week

Army Head Coach Jeff Monken is very comfortable as the point man in this role, going 11-4 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points coming off back-to-back defeats, including 4-0 ATS under Monken. Wake has never shone against military schools, going just 7-18 SU and 8-16 ATS, including 4-6 SU and 2-8
ATS as favorites. They’re also 0-3-1 ATS as road chalk when they are carrying the weight of being undefeated. Consider also that  5-0 or greater road favorites
coming off a week of rest are only 17-30 ATS since 1997, including 1-9 ATS in games in which they allow 20 or more PPG in a season. The Black Knights own the nation’s 2nd-ranked rushing offense while the Demon Deacons allow 171 rushing yards on the ground. The clincher:  Army HC Moken has been a gift in games against undefeated opposition, going 7-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS when his troops have at least one loss on the season.

CFB 5* Upset

That's a lot for the Midshipmen to prep for after its latest loss last Thursday. The defense gave up four touchdowns on Memphis' first five drives in a 35-17 defeat. Navy made the most of its first possession against Memphis, piecing together a methodical, 21-play touchdown drive that lasted 11:50. The Midshipmen scored only 10 points the rest of the day. Consider that playing on any college football military team if they are a dog of 20 or more points coming off a loss of 16 or more points if they allow fewer than 41 points per game and are facing a .666 or greater opponent before Game Eleven of the season is a perfect 20-0 since 1980.