Rating: 3 Units

If UF finds the red zone, they’ll find the nation’s best red zone defense but that’s about the best number for Beavers fans because the gambling numbers favor the orange and blue. OSU West is 0-4 SU vs SEC foes, 1-4 SUATS in bowls against a team not coming off a double-digit loss. The Pac-12 is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS vs. the SEC… and it gets a little worse for Oregon State. UF is 5-1 ATS versus Pac-12 teams, all as the underdog, and 7-2 ATS as a bowler not favored by 7 or more points. First year head coaches are 10-4 ATS as a double-digit dog and UF coach Billy Napier is 17-6 ATS as a puppy backed up by a powerful 8-0 ATS run in the last eight. The Pac-12 also limps in with a 15-34-1 ATS record as a bowl favorite. This is a classic conflict of favorable numbers for UF, but the other team is favored and facing a QB that’s never played a meaningful down since his senior year at Chaparral High in Scottsdale, AZ. And our head coach is 17-5 ATS as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

The Colts have dropped three straight, while failing to reach the 20-point mark in scoring. Still, the blowout loss at Dallas was a 4th-quarter fluke (Cowboys outscored Indy, 33-0) and defeats against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia came down to the final minutes. The Colts are on an 11-0 ATS run when playing off a double-digit loss, plus they’ve cashed SEVEN straight tickets versus NFC North opponents. The Colts also counter with the league’s 7th ranked stop unit, 89 YPG superior to that of Minnesota.

Rating: 2 Units

Trojans held three teams to season low yardage this year. Troy’s defensive 11 held the seven bowl teams they faced to 17 PPG/326 YPG. They’re 5-0 ATS when receiving points and after all isn’t receiving what the holiday season is all about? UTSA struggles defensively against bowlers, 29 PPG/409 YPG and has yet to win a bowl game, going 0-3 and that includes not covering once. Troy’s first year head coach Jon Sumrall knows his Trojans have won their last four bowl games. 

Rating: 2 Units

Trent Dilfer is perhaps the most maligned winning QB in Super Bowl history fairly or unfairly, but after a strong stint coaching HS ball in Tennessee, he’s the coach in waiting for UAB. Bryant Vincent has this bowl assignment, and his Blazers have gone 3-0 ATS in bowls since 2018. Yes, the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in bowls since 2011, but this year against bowl teams M-OH has had its problems going 0-5 SU, 1-4 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats). Chuck Martin’s Miamians are also a scary 3-8 In the Stats this season and against fellow bowlers are an average -131. Yecch. Toss in the MAC’s inability to conquer C-USA in the bowls, going 5-18 SU and 7-15-1 ATS, and it’s hard to get excited about Miami winning. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a hearty 15-7-1 ATS as double-digit chalk, including 3-0 ATS in non-conference contests. UAB has also held four foes to season-low yardage, and Martin seems to be conservative in bowl games for some odd reason. Blazers’ players who plan on coming back next season will be very invested in putting on a good show for the incoming Dilfer, and motivation is perhaps the biggest non-numerical reason to pick with or against a team during bowl season.

Rating: 2 Units

Seattle is 4-0 ATS at home off a home game, as well 8-2-2 ATS in Thursday pressure cookers. Frisco has failed to cover in three straight Thursday appearances, and the Niners are a lousy 2-7 ATS as favorites versus a foe off a SU favorite loss. Look, we don’t expect Brock Purdy to match last week’s eye-popping performance against a desperate Seattle ‘D’, and 49ers all-world star Deebo Samuel is out with a sprained ankle and MCL, though he is expected back before the playoffs. No Deebo and a 2-game cushion for San Francisco in the division race means the hungry, hungry Seahawks find a way to win tonight.

Mismatch of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

So why is it, that the Seahawks a measly 3.5-point favorite at home against the 4-8 Panthers? Is Vegas telling us something? They may be trying, but we’re not buying. Not with Carolina 0-3 SUATS in NFC West division duke outs this season, and 0-3 SUATS the last three games in this series. And not with the Panthers a pussycat-like 0-4 ATS in games when coming off a Bye week. Turn it around and you’ll find a Seahawks squad 7-3 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week. Better yet, the Seahawks are 25-3 SU and 21-6-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive ATS losses under head coach Pete Carroll, including 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Brady  is simply the best as an underdog, going 41-17-1 ATS in his illustrious career, including 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and 17-5 ATS when his team is coming off an ATS loss. He also stands 21-6 SU in his career in games in which his team is .500 on the season. Perhaps even more impressive is Brady’s 45-14 SU and 43-12-4 ATS mark in games against foes with a better record, including 24-6 ATS when taking points. With Monday night’s stirring comeback win over the Saints, the Bucs currently hold down the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture while the Niners lay claim to the No. 2 seed. Frisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of fewer than four points and Tampa Bay is 7-1-2 ATS as a dog after being a favorite the previous game. Finally consider that playing against any .666 or greater single-digit NFL regular season home team coming off consecutive home wins if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is 14-2-1 since 1983.

Rating: 2 Units

There have been 26 games that played to an overtime tie in the NFL since 1980. The good news for Big Blue is that home teams not favored by 3 or more points are 9-2 SUATS when coming off a kiss-you-sister-contest, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, 1-5 ATS in their last six division road games, and 2-8 ATS as road chalk of three or more points, and the G-Men 6-2 ATS when seeking revenge in this series, the points are the play in this fray.

Rating: 2 Units

Watson dresses up today sporting a 10-2-1 ATS NFL career mark as a dog of six or fewer points versus sub .700 opposition, as well as 9-3-1 ATS as a road dog against sub .700 foes. Meanwhile, the Bengals enter off last week’s hard-fought battle with the Chiefs at just 1-6 ATS as division home chalk of fewer than seven points, as well as 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season when taking on division foes. 

Rating: 2 Units

Ken “Nine Lives” Niumatalolo and the Midshipmen, who are staring down the barrel of their third straight losing campaign. Even so, a win against Army can cure a lot of ills, and Navy backers appear to be on board, moving the line from Army -1.5 to pick in just a few hours – not that strange considering the Mids have gone 16-4 SU in the last 20 meetings while being made the favorite 17 times. However, note that the team with the better win percentage in this series (Army this season), is 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1980 in games in which Air Force has already claimed the CIC trophy. Then there’s the matter of the Black Knights’ 17-13 loss to Navy in 2021 as 7-point chalk. Revenge is the ultimate weapon in military battles, especially for those seeking it against foes sporting a losing record, as they’ve gone 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS in this role in these military matters since 1995, including 5-0 ATS for those teams who score 34 or more points in their previous game. The series has also seen Army go 7-1 ATS with revenge when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS the last four years.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s now three consecutive wins for the Raiders, with RB Josh Jacobs off another monster game (26 carries, 144 yards, TD), and WR Davante Adams playing up to expectations (eight catches 177 yards, two TDs). The bottom line to this contest is there could be a Baker Mayfield sighting for the Rams tonight (signed but learning a new system), and Los Angeles falls to 2-13 ATS in games when coming off a loss as a dog against a foe coming off a win as a favorite. Back the better team as it keeps their playoff hopes alive.

Rating: 3 Units

Seattle QB Geno Smith leads all NFL quarterbacks in QBR Rating this season at 108.5. In fact, Smith is 14-5 ATS in his last nineteen NFL starts, including 5-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses. With the shell-of-themselves Rams 0-6 SUATS in this series, as well as 1-8 SUATS as a home dog, and with the Seahawks arriving off back-to-back losses consider that Seattle head coach Peter Carroll is 11-1 SUATS in Game 12 of the season with the Seahawks, including 10-0 SUATS when Seattle is not a double-digit favorite. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Eagles win over the Packers on Sunday night was impressive, to say the least. Not only did they manage to amass 363 rushing yards in the contest, (the eighth most in the Super Bowl era) but the Eagles rushed for 153 yards on 18 carries in the first quarter alone. Then in the fourth quarter, they rushed for 92 yards on another 18 carries. Whew. However, we don’t know if another onslaught of the same magnitude is possible this week against the Titans’ 3rd ranked rush defense, one that is allowing 85 RYPG. In addition, Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in matchups when both teams are coming off non-division battles, and 11-2 ATS as a dog of 5-plus points. The Eagles seal the deal entering with a 1-8 ATS ledger when coming off an ATS win versus a foe coming off an ATS loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Near double digit chalk role is always a bit scary, but until the Broncos can manufacture any sort of reliable offense, they will continue as a solid "go-against", especially with "over/under" proponents, as the "under" has reaped gold: 10-of-11. If the Broncos had scored 18 pts in each of their games, they would stand at 9-2, & not 3-8. Ravens' 2nd-ranked rushing game should provide be enough "O" to cover the spot. Tied with Cincy atop AFC North, to they cannot afford any slippage.

Rating: 3 Units

We’re sure those who watched the Wolverines in the second half last week have already plunked their money down on the maize-and-blue, but we think the Boilers deserve more than just a passing glance. Purdue is 3-0 in its last 3 Neutral Site games, 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or more points, 6-1 ATS off a double-digit Big Ten road win, and 4-1 ATS versus undefeated conference opponents. Word out of Michigan is that RB Corum is not expected to play, as Harbaugh plans to save him for the playoffs. But even without him, the Wolverines rushed for 254 yards against Ohio State, a stat that does not bode well for the Boilers considering they are just 2-5 ATS this season in games where they’ve lost the overland battle. However, before going with Michigan know that head coach Jeff Brohm brings a 28-14 ATS career dog log into this contest, including 7-1 ATS versus foes coming off an ATS win of 20+ points. And while a Buckeye letdown did not occur in this game last year when Michigan destroyed Iowa, we’d be shocked if it doesn’t rear its head here today. In what marks the first meeting for these two programs since 2017, we look for the Wolverines to fall to 3-10 ATS when playing off a SU road dog win. 

Rating: 2 Units

Tigers were clearly looking ahead to tonight’s title game against the Bulldogs when they were undressed by Texas A&M, 38-23. That defeat ended a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run for 1st-year head coach Brian Kelly and his Bengals, and the early money has poured in on defending national champ Georgia. It’s important to remember, though, that Kelly is 18-7 ATS as a dog when coming off a loss in his CFB career, including 11-3 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents. Solid history for LSU in this series of late with a 4-0-1 ATS skein in progress, plus the bayou boys have cashed 7 straight tickets in Neutral Site games. Kelly’s heroes are also 8-3 ATS as dogs of 7 or more points while Georgia is just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS when seeking revenge in this series (Tigers took down Dawgs, 37-10, in 2019 SEC title bout).

Rating: 2 Units

So, even though Boise clobbered Fresno this year, 40-20, we know that the wild horses are a whimpering 1-7 ATS after scoring 40 or more points, plus 1-4 ATS in Mountain West Conference title games. We also know that Fresno stands 4-0 ATS in MWC championship contests, with three of those tickets coming against the Broncos. And since BSU has won two straight against the west coasters, its poor 2-5 ATS record at home versus a foe seeking double revenge comes into play here against the Bulldogs’ outstanding 7-1-1 ATS record when playing with double revenge. To cap it off, Fresno's HC has a penchant for getting his teams up in double revenge situations, going 10-5 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in his career, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS with his current school. 

Rating; 2 Units

Despite losing starting QB Adrian Martinez on the first series of the game, the Wildcats bounced back to take a 28-10 lead at the half under backup QB Will Howard. Unfortunately for KSU, Howard and a half dozen other major K-State contributors were felled by injury in the second stanza, and the Horned Frogs took advantage by scoring the final 28 points of the game. Howard looks ready to go here, and his team has gone 4-1 ATS of late in this series, 4-0 ATS the last four Neutral Site games, and 5-2 ATS with single conference revenge. That goes hand in hand with TCU’s 0-4 ATS failure in Neutral Site games, and its 3-6 ATS mark as Big 12 road chalk of 6 or fewer points. How much longer can the Froggies keep their unbeaten streak going while the pressure increases exponentially with every passing week?

Rating: 2 Units

The Chaparral Birds enter on a 9-game win streak following a 1-2 start, but have cashed a ticket in just four of those games. The fact that UTSA has been double-digit chalk in six of its last seven contests makes the opening line of -8.5 look mighty appealing against a North Texas team that lost on this field six weeks ago, 31-21. However, sub .600 teams in conference championship games seeking same-season revenge are 6-0 ATS since 2000. The Eagles also own a profitable 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS mark against foes who surrender 22 or more PPG this season. While the game host’s 7-2 and 6-3 ATS success in C-USA title bouts points to the Roadrunners, consider that same-season revengers taking on opponents coming off a win who scored 34-plus points in their last contest, are 10-2 ATS since 2010. That, and UNT’s 22-point demolition of UTSA last year – Traylor’s worst loss with the Roadrunners – is enough to put us on the dudes from Denton tonight.

Prime Time Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The ‘return to the norm’ is simply too strong to overcome as ATS losses begin to pile up with each passing week. With it the Eagles enter this week on a 3-game ATS losing skid while having been out yarded in half of their last six games. Granted, the Packers are facing demons of their own, but Aaron Rodgers thrives in these situations, and we expect nothing less today. With it the Pack checks in 7-1 ATS in game versus .750 or greater foes the past two seasons, as well as 8-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday contest. Meanwhile, the Green Birds enter 1-8 ATS versus foes off a SU home favorite loss, and just 3-8 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday game. To cap it off, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SUATS as a dog when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus .700 or greater foes.

Rating: 2 Units

If Carroll can guide this team to 10 or more wins and make the postseason sans Wilson and Wagner, he’s almost certain to win Coach of the Year.” Fast forward from June to November and 6-4 Seattle is more than halfway to the 10-win season few thought they could achieve. While the Seahawks have been a major surprise, the 3-7 Raiders have dutifully taken their place as one of the worst teams in the NFL, disappointing eyepatch fans everywhere as they stumble to their fourth losing season in the last five years. Things won’t get any easier after today, either, with Vegas lining up against New England, San Francisco, and Kansas City down the stretch. When it comes to today’s contest, Las Vegas has run out of luck in its last fi ve meetings with NFC West teams, going 1-4 ATS. Not so for Seattle, who boasts a 7-1 ATS record off a SUATS loss versus foes off a SUATS win. It’s not a stretch to suggest that these two are headed in opposite directions, and we won’t be on the one heading south.

Rating: 2 Units

The Commanders are 6-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins as well as 4-1 ATS versus NFC South opponents. Meanwhile, the Dirty Birds enter 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS at home when coming off a win, and are 0-7 ATS in Game Twelve of the campaign. They are also riding a 10-game ITS (In The Stats) losing streak, currently the longest in the NFL.

Upset of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

App State is 2-7 ATS in lined games, 1-7 ATS as a favorite (!) and 0-4 ATS when coming off a victory. Georgia Southern is the opposite going 4-0 ATS in regular season finales and a sturdy 5-1 ATS in last home games. Finally, Eagles Coach Helton has never lost four straight (even though Southern Cal die-hards thought he lost every game there) and is 6-2 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses.

Big-12 Game of the Mont

Rating: 5 Units

Iowa State has out-yarded each of their last five opponents, including a 422-246 margin over Texas Tech in last week’s 14-10 loss. They have also held eight opponents to a season-low – or 2nd low – yardage this year, and that is just enough to apply the slip-knot on the TCU noose. When you consider that the Clones are 5-1 ATS in this series over the last six matchups (3-0 ATS as a dog), and that they own a 6-0 ATS mark as conference road dogs, you’ll find your winner. Finally, playing on any CFB dog off two losses, both as a favorite, if they allow 21 or fewer PPG and they are facing an undefeated opponent is 13-2-1 since 1980.

Rating; 2 Units

Oregon is only 8-15 ATS in this series when the Beavers are playing with revenge, including 1-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Oregon State has been formidable of late as a home dog of 7 or fewer points, going 6-1 ATS the last seven. Even more amazing is the fact that OSU has gone 9-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in its last ten home games, plus the Beavers have held their last three foes to season-low yards. Finally, head coach Jonathan Smith is 19-11 ATS in games where the Beavers are seeking revenge, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

Freeze loves to catch fish in a barrel with hand grenades: 18-2 SU and 14-3 ATS versus sub .333 opponents by an average of 46-13. This includes a perfect 7-0 SUATS in lined games. This batch of ricin-infused tea also features an evil 18-6-1 ATS mark against teams coming off a SUATS loss, which is a specialty of all college football teams coming out of New Mexico. NMSU is 0-10 ATS off a dog loss while playing a foe off a SU favorite loss and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 Game 11’s.

Rating: 3 Units

Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman’s goal is to avoid the pangs of a letdown versus Mizzou, but the fact is the Hogs bring a 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS record into this contest when coming off a SU upset win, including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Sitting at 5-6 in their final regular season game, the Tigers are a ‘Shaky 16’ team this week as it’s win or you’re not in time for Missouri. The good news for MU head coach Eli Drinkwitz, who just signed a contract extension several weeks ago, is the host in this series is 7-1 ATS. Drinkwitz also stands 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS versus a foe coming off a SU underdog win, as well as 3-0 SUATS versus sub .560 foe coming off a SU underdog win. Finally consider that Missouri is 9-3 ATS in Last Home Games versus foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS versus foes off a win of fewer than 20 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Simply expect the unexpected when Tars perform. Led GaTech 17-0 in 2nd, but no pts thereafter for UNC's 4th-ranked "O" vs GT's 95th-ranked "D". 'Pack on 1-7 ATS slide, & winless ATS away. In addition, 'Pack is 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and 2-9 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or fewer points. Can't run, & Finley not the answer. Maye & Co bounce back.

Rating: 2 Units

BU is a perfect 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss and its opponent is coming off a win. The Bears are also 7-1 ATS when coming off a home loss, plus they outgained TCU, 501-442, in last week’s last-second loss to the charmed Frogs. For more anti-Longhorn ammunition, defending Big 12 champs like Baylor are 10-5 ATS when coming off two losses. Yes, the Texas offense has looked downright scary lately, scoring 34.3 PPG in its last six outings, but the Longhorns are 4-8 SUATS in LHGs, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a double-digit win.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota was a team that I had overrated heading into its abysmal showing against Dallas, although that turned out worse than anyone could have imagined. The Vikings’ stats do not match their record, as they have actually been outscored overall this season. Plenty of bettors are going to look at the records of these teams and back Minnesota, but I like New England here. The Patriots have quietly been playing very solid football, covering the spread in six of its last seven games. They have the much better defense and have won five straight meetings between these teams.

Rating: 2 Units

While the visiting Bulldogs haven’t done much better down the stretch, a litany of strong trends support Mississippi State in this battle for the 3rd spot in the SEC West between these intrastate rivals. While Ole Miss owns the better record overall at 8-3 / 4-3 compared to the 7-4 / 3-4 Bulldogs, the Rebels are just 1-6 ATS as conference favorites of fewer than 7 points, and 1-5 ATS in LHGs. Across the field, MSU head coach Mike Leach is backed by an 8-0 ATS mark when playing with double conference revenge, a 10-1 ATS record after an unlined home game, and a 6-1 ATS skein as a series visitor versus Ole Miss. MSU looks to improve to 5-1 ATS as an SEC dog of 8 or fewer points.

Rating: 3 Units

Dallas is 31-22-1 all-time on Thanksgiving Day, but only 4-7 SU and 1-10 ATS the last eleven years – including 0-3 SUATS the last three. Meanwhile, the Cowboys return home as an annual Turkey Day host, on the heels of last week’s 37-point win at Minnesota. It was the largest road win in Dallas’ history – and you know how we love fading teams coming off record setting performances. The Boys have now won 11 of their last 12 division games. However, the Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when coming off a SU favorite loss. To clinch it, consider that winning NFL division road dogs with triple revenge from losses in their last three meetings are 12-1 ATS when facing a foe coming off a win of 7 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury is the only coach in NFL history with a better outright record as a dog than as a favorite with the Cardinals, going 17-16-1 SU taking points and 11-14 outright laying them.  McCoy is 3-0 ATS as a dog as a starting quarterback for Arizona – winning all three games outright. Murray is 3-1-1 ATS in his starts in this series, including 2-0-1 ATS as a dog. On the Niners side, Frisco is 8-1 ATS on Mondays in division games, but only 1-7- 1 ATS as of late in this series.

Rating: 3 Units

The Chiefs enter this fray knowing they are 14-3 SU in the last 17 games in this series. Meanwhile, KC is 10-3 ATS as division road chalk of 10 or fewer points, while LA is 3-9 ATS the last dozen games as a home dog. We’d love to hop on the arm of Justin Herbert as he looks to avenge a 27-24 loss at Arrowhead in Game Two this season, but the fact of the matter is both Herbert and the Chargers are struggling, and the Bolts are only 4-38 ATS as home dogs in games they lose outright. 

Divisional Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The Bengals are 8-0 ATS when coming off a non-division game when facing a foe that is also coming off a non-division game, as well as 7-0 ATS off a win versus foes coming off a win. And then there is Burrow, who brings a 9-1 SUATS career record into this game when facing an NFL opponent coming off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, the Black-and-Gold are at home following last week’s home win with a 0-4 SUATS ledger at home when coming a home game. Mike Tomlin’s troops are also 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) this season while being outgained an average -85 YPG. Finally the Bengals are 25-1 ATS in their last twenty-six division games they win outright

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Mike McCarthy, not the sharpest knife in the NFL coaches’ drawer, decided to go for it on fourth-and-3 from Green Bay’s 35-yard line in overtime rather than kicking a field goal to go up by 3 points. The Cowboys failed to convert and the Packers then proceeded to kick the game-winning field goal. Another knock at the door is Dallas’ 3-10 ATS log in this series, including 1-10 ATS without rest. To clinch it all, Dallas is 3-18-1 ATS as a conference favorite versus .666 or greater opponents, including 3-11 SU and 0-13-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 4 points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bills are 31-11 SU and 32-10 ATS when coming off three consecutive ATS losses, and they are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 8 points when coming off a home loss. In addition, NFL non-division home favorites who scored 30-plus points and lost as a favorite are 14-5 ATS the following game since 1980. For what it’s worth, despite hitting a recent two-game speed bump, Buffalo is winning the total yards on an average of +104 yards per contest this season. It’s closest pursuer, San Francisco, is 25 YPG lighter than the Bills. With QB Josh Allen’s MVP chances having taken a major hit, look for a bounce back.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s hard to fathom the 4-6 Falcons would be only two spots out of an NFC postseason berth were the playoffs to begin this week. And that’s behind a team that is being out-yarded -82 in net YPG (only Houston is worse), thanks to a league worst 1-9 ITS (In The Stats) record this season. And it’s beginning to catch up with them, as their 4-game ATS losing streak waters down a 6-0 ATS mark to start the season. With Atlanta 1-7 ATS against NFC North opposition, we’ll back the dog today.It’s hard to fathom the 4-6 Falcons would be only two spots out of an NFC postseason berth were the playoffs to begin this week. And that’s behind a team that is being out-yarded -82 in net YPG (only Houston is worse), thanks to a league worst 1-9 ITS (In The Stats) record this season. And it’s beginning to catch up with them, as their 4-game ATS losing streak waters down a 6-0 ATS mark to start the season. With Atlanta 1-7 ATS against NFC North opposition, we’ll back the dog today.

Today is a huge double revenger for the Ducks, who lost last season 38-7 at Utah and then 38-10 in the Pac-12 title game two weeks later. The fact that Oregon is 23-1 outright in its last 24 home games, and is coming off a home loss. Consider that the Ducks are 5-0 ATS at home with revenge when coming off a home loss since 1996. The Utes are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of less than 10 points and it’s always difficult laying points into this team, but it’s justified in this contest. Remember that all 6 of the Utes’ losses over the last two seasons have occurred away from Salt Lake City. Their defense has looked especially vulnerable in several games this season, and the Quack Attack is coming off a 592-yard effort in the loss to Washington last week.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gophers polished off the tarnish of a 3-game losing streak to become Golden again thanks to three straight wins. Not surprisingly their defense is allowing an average of 250 YPG during the run of victories. History lines up against Minnesota though, as only once in the last 15 meetings have they been the betting favorite and in the series Iowa has bullied them, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games. Iowa beat Wisconsin last week with one of their most explosive offensive days this season…146 yards. Iowa is a DIA DIA in this one, too (Dominating Dogs in Action, Doing it Again). 

Rating: 3 Units

A year ago, the spot on this one would have been around the 17-pt margin, or similar. Fact is that the Cadets are once again among the leaders in overland production (#2 behind only Air Force), but among the dregs, defensively, ranking just 71st, with that coming against such powers as Villanova, GeorgiaSt, Colgate, & Monroe, with mighty UMass on the horizon. Their current 3-0 SU/ATS run has lowered the spot on this, much to the delight of their backers. Not only is UConn bowl eligible, but is also a weekly profit producer, covering its last 7 games, the latest in its upset of Liberty, resulting in a +17 pt cover.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Good numbers for the visitors, though, as they’re 4-0 ATS as double-digit conference road dogs this season, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight run-ins with undefeated conference foes. Michigan counters with a superb 11-1 ATS mark as Big Ten home chalk of less than 20 points, but the Maize-and Blue can’t be trusted to cash a ticket in their final home game, as they’ve gone 2-6 ATS in the last eight such affairs. And let’s face it, Harbaugh will work from a strictly “vanilla” playbook today to avoid tipping off Ohio State’s Ryan Day. Meanwhile, with two rough defenses doing battle today – and Ohio State on deck for Michigan – points could be hard to come by. Finally, playing against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game Eleven if they are facing a .700 > foe is 16-2-2 ATS since 1980.

Big-12 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Unit

We realize TCU is 12-1 ATS in LRGs (Last Road Games), but they weren’t undefeated then and carrying the weight of being in the position they are in this year. Meanwhile, some of the numbers look very good when studying Baylor: 5-0 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games, 7-1 ATS after scoring fewer than 10 points in previous game, and 3-0 ATS with double conference revenge (Bears lost 30-28 as 7.5-point favorites at TCU last season, one of only two defeats they were dealt in 2021). Meanwhile, back to the Horned Frogs, whose numbers are less-shiny: 1-6 ATS versus double conference revenge and 2-12 ATS after playing Texas. It is extremely strange to imagine, but the Frogs can possibly afford a loss and still make the College Football Playoff – but why take the chance? One thing we know for sure is Baylor is 13-1 ATS as a dog with conference revenge versus a foe coming off a SUATS win, including 8-0 ATS at home

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in this series when both teams are coming off a win. On the flip side, Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in games in which they were an underdog in their last game and their opponent was favored in its last contest. The emergence of Packers rookie WR Christian Watson may be just what the doctor ordered as he scored three touchdowns to go with 8 receptions and 107 yards in last week’s stirring overtime win against Dallas. With QB Aaron Rodgers 5-1 SUATS in his last six games following a SU underdog win. To clinch is, Green Bay is 7-0 SUATS in their last seven Thursday games, and Tennessee is 0-4 SUATS in their last four appearances on Thursdays.

Rating: 2 Units

Hard to believe head coach Thomas Hammock is winding up his 4th season with the Huskies. After last year’s 9-5 finish, NIU – who ranked No. 8 nationally in Returning Player Production and welcomed 18 starters back – was expecting more of the same in 2022. After ten games, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU. Consider that Miami Ohio is 8-0 ATS coming off a SU loss as a dog, and 6-1 ATS off a loss versus a foe off a win. You should also know Northern Illinois is a money-burning 1-7 ATS in the last eight get-togethers with Miami, and 0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win.

Rating: 3 Units

The Cowboys bring with them a league-best 33 sacks in eight games led by game-wrecker Micah Parsons. Dallas is rested following its bye week. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games with four of those victories achieved when back up quarterback Cooper Rush was under center. Mike McCarthy has had this matchup circled from the start in his return to Green Bay having been the Packers’ head coach for 13 seasons. Dak Prescott is back in healthy form. The Packers won’t have injured Rashan Gary, their best pass rusher. Despite having Kenny Clark at nose tackle, the Packers’ disappointing run defense ranks 26th. Green Bay’s special teams still remain bad, too. There is a bigger gap between these two teams than the point spread indicates

Rating; 2 Units

Mike Vrabel’s supermen have out-yarded just one foe this year while losing the stats an average -86 net YPG. For what it’s worth, only Houston and Pittsburgh are worse, and they own a collective record of 3-12-1 this season. Making matters worse for the Nashville cats, the well-rested Broncos are 5-0 ATS when coming off a Bye week, as well as 7-1 ATS in this series. In addition, Denver sports a 7-1 ATS mark in this series, including 5-0 ATS in games in which it has a losing record. With the Titans 2-6 ATS at home coming off back-to-back road games, we’re all over Denver here. 

Upset of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Coming off their Bye week, the Browns look to be as healthy as they’ve been all season with star DB Denzel Ward and OT Wyatt Teller due back after resting lingering injuries. They are also as hungry as they’ve been this season as they now trail AFC North Division-leading Baltimore by 2.5 games and need to up their game in anticipation of the return of QB Deshaun Watson in three weeks. The Browns secondary better sharpen up, though, going against the top 1-2 WR duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Hill is on pace for a record 2,085 yards and could become the first ever receiver to surpass 2,000. Nonetheless, Miami arrives 3-8 ATS following consecutive NFC contests, while Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in this series, 4-0 ATS in first of back-to-back roadies, and 5-1 ATS following a division home game. Consider that Cleveland HC is 11-6 ATS as a dog with his current team, including 5-0 ATS against opponents he defeated in a most recent meeting.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Pete Carroll’s crew enters on a 4-0 SUATS win skein, winning three of the games outright as underdogs. And speaking of dogs, Seattle QB Geno Smith is 12-3 ATS in his last fifteen games when taking points in this league, including 7-0 ATS versus .444 or greater foes. On the other side of the fi eld, it should be noted that Brady is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral fields, but only 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS versus NFC West foes with the Bucs. In wrapping things up, it should also be noted that NFL teams with the better record are 19-8-1 SU and 16-12 ATS in Euro games. To clinch is, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 7-2 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when riding a three-game-plus win skein, including 7-0 ATS when taking either 2 or 3 points.

Rating: 3 Units

The Frogs are now at No. 4 in the nation, reaching 9-0 for the first time since 2010, a 13-0 season that ended with a Rose Bowl victory and No. 2 national ranking. To be honest, we’ve had these Frogs on our fade list often this season and have been eating crow trying to explain their uncanny ability to overcome second-half deficits during this campaign in four of their wins. However, to seal the deal, consider that 9-0 or greater underdogs are 11-2-1 ATS during the regular season when not coming off an ATS win of more than 11 points, including 6-0 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

MSU ranks 128th in rushing, averaging 80.7 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. Their dink and dunk passing attack averages just 6.5 yards per pass attempt, and they haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of their three losses. So do we think Georgia is on upset alert? Absolutely not. And if not, do we think Mississippi State tops that 17-point mark? Maybe if there’s a letdown. But Georgia doesn’t need to score much to cover even in that event. Mississippi State is vulnerable to the run, which Georgia will pound at, leading to timely downfield passing on occasion. Georgia has been held under 30 points just twice, further lending confidence to this spread.

Rating: 3 Units

Saban is 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2011 versus foes with a better record, including 5-1 ATS during the regular season, and don’t forget about the Saban’s 27-2 SU career mark in games against former assistants. So how is it the 2-loss Tide is installed as a double-digit favorite in this contest? For the answer, consider that playing on any AP Preseason No. 1 college team as a favorite off a SU favorite loss in their previous game is g 29-15 ATS mark (66%) in these games since 1980. Put them up against quality opposition (greater than .600) and they shoot up to 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS in this role. Better yet, let these Preseason No. 1 squads enter this same game with a .900 or fewer win percentage on the season, they ratchet up to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS.

ACC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Louisville has quietly stitched together a decent season after a terrible start and may be saving Scott Satterfi eld’s job. Satterfi is a solid 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS against teams coming off a spread loss of 19 or more points. UL is 4-0 SUATS in their last four. To tap it off playing against  any CFB home favorite of more than 4 points from Game Nine out coming off its first loss of the year as a favorite of 4 or more points if they are off a DD ATS loss and are facing a foe who allows 20.1 or fewer PPG is 11-0 ATS since 1982.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Arkansas is 13-6 SUATS at home when coming off a SU favorite loss to a conference foe, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 8 points. Also, Sam Pittman is 19-9-1 ATS overall in his career with the Hogs, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of 16 or fewer points. In addition, you need to realize that LSU is a horrendous 2-7 ATS as a road favorite of less than 15 points while coming off back-to-back home games. Also, road favorites who upset Alabama the previous week are also just 2-7 ATS in the following game since 1980 when coming off three consecutive wins, including 0-5 ATS when they own a win percentage of greater than .750 on the season. Sure, Jayden Daniels has improved greatly, as has the Tiger defense, but Pittman’s crew will be up to the challenge. Finally, Arkansas is 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss in this series.

Rating: 2 Units

Pirates are gaining tons of respect from Vegas these days, and rightfully so. They are 7-2 ITS, winning the stats by an average +69 net YPG, and they bring a 10-4 ATS road dog log into this contest under head coach Mike Houston, including 6-0 ATS against foes coming off a loss. At 6-3 / 3-2, East Carolina trails the Bearcats by a full game on both sides of the ledger, but they arrive with momentum from a 3-game win streak, including last week’s hard-fought 27-24 decision over BYU at Provo. Cincy head coach Luke Fickell is likely freaking out, riding a current 0-4-1 ATS streak entering this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

Sean McVay has done his best work on the NFL road where he is 10-5 ATS as a dog, including 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when taking more than 2 points. In addition, he stands 10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS in skirmishes against the NFC South, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog. And lest we forget, defending Super Bowl champions who find themselves taking points with a losing record check in at 18-7-2 ATS since 1980. Toss in the Rams’ 8-1 ATS record in this series, and their 4-0 ATS mark versus foes coming off a Thursday home game.

Rating; 2 units

Smith actually enters this fray sporting a 107.2 QB Rating (3rd best in the league), while Murray’s woes continue with an 85.3 QB Rating (20th overall). Because of it, the Seahawks are taking minimal points in this game as opposed to the touchdown they were scheduled to receive prior to the start of the season. One of the reasons is the Seahawks are 3-0 SUATS the last three games. In those contests they allowed an average 256 YPG, a quantum leap over the 410 YPG they surrendered over the course of their fi rst fi ve games of the season. We realize Pete Carroll’s troops will be on their way to London after this contest but knowing that Arizona is 1-7 ATS at home with division revenge, 1-7 ATS as home favorites of 5 or fewer points, and 2-7 ATS in the first of three straight division contests, we can only look one way in this fray. Take the points.

Rating: 3 Units

Things have surely changed in Boiseland, with the home team moving to the fore, which is in direct opposition to the former norm in games involving the Broncos, which saw the visitor as the constant play, rewarding the "smart money" movers. Check the visitor with ATS logs of 8-4 in '15, 9-4 in '16, 10-3 in '17, & 9-3 in '21, regardless of the spread. This season, however the host in Boise games stands at 5-1-1 ATS. Not only that, but note Boise at a 174-56 pt edge in its last 5 home games, while ranking 2nd in total "O". Cougars are on runs of 0-7 & 3-13 ATS of late. 

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee defeated two other undefeated teams this season and they’ll look to complete a three-game SUATS hat trick here. Unfortunately, they are 0-5 SUATS versus 7-0 or greater opponents. Granted, the Vols lead the SEC in turnover margin (+8) and bring a 5-1 ATS mark into this battle royale as conference road dogs of 10 or less points, but as we’ve seen time and again in games of this magnitude, defense rules. That’s where Georgia brings the better of it, by 10 points and 131 YPG. Meanwhile, the Dawgs raced out to a 28-3 lead before surviving a second-half scare in last week’s 42-20 win over Florida. They are 15-0 SU after ‘Cocktail Parties’, including 8-0 SU and 7-0 ATS when favored by fewer than 20 points. As expected, the Dawgs own an exceptionally glossy stats dossier: No. 1 in the land in Red Zone Offense and No. 2 in Red Zone Defense (think about that), as well as No. 3 in Pass Defense Efficiency, No. 4 in Time of Possession (Vols are No. 124) and Overall Defense (Vols are No. 82). They are also allowing less than a point per game in the first quarter and Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU and 30-13 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 20 points, including 8-0 SU versus undefeated opposition. 

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

We will find out if the maligned OU defense will continue their Cyclones form or revert to the team that was strafed for 41, 55, 49 and 42 points prior to visiting Ames, Iowa last weekend. If the Sooners can’t stop Baylor frosh RB Richard Reese, who despite his 5’9” stature, has 12 TDs and 791 ground yards, the game will be a Bear market. Oklahoma is a depressing 0-5 ATS at home versus a team coming off consecutive SUATS wins. To cap it off, Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference dog versus an opponent coming off a SUATS win.

Big-10 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Boilermaker head coach Jeff Brohm has carved out a ‘good dog, bad favorite’ personality and we’re not about to go against that today, not after Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point dogs at Iowa last season, meaning a major payback is in order today. With the Boilers now a lousy 1-4 ATS at home in this series, and HC of Iowa going 24-14 ATS in his career, including 10-2 ATS when taking single digits and coming off a SUATS win.  To seal the deal, Iowa is 12-5 ATS as a dog with revenge when coming off a SUATS win under head coach Kirk Ferentz, including 8-1 ATS when not coming off a spread win of 13 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon State snapped a lengthy drought when the Beavers entered the college football rankings this week for the first time since 2013. Currently out of the rankings is 6-2 Washington, fighting through a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS slump. Washington  is 0-4 ATS with rest, 0-3 ATS on Weekdays the last two years, and 3-12 ATS off 4+ ATS losses. Oregon State is 15-4 ATS in this series, including 11-2 ATS with revenge, and 7-0 ATS off a home win of 21 or more points. Even better, coach Smith chips in with a solid 8-2 ATS record as a conference road dog with revenge

Rating: 2 Units

The Bengals have won two straight and four of the last five, while allowing an average of 17.5 points per game in the four victories and allowing just 19 points in the one loss. Cleveland has struggled the last four weeks, losing each of the four and the Browns' defense has been its weak spot. During Cleveland’s current four-game losing streak, the Browns are allowing an average of 28.5 points per game. Joe Burrow is averaging 299.6 yards per game passing with 15 touchdowns. Cleveland is tough on the ground with Nick Chubb but quarterback Jacoby Brissett has just six touchdowns and has thrown five interceptions, which has made Cleveland too one-dimensional with its running game.

Rating: 3 Units

Rodgers is 5-3 SUATS in his NFL career when the Packers are coming off three straight losses, including 3-2 SU and 4-1 SUATS in games in which Green Bay is not favored. We also know Rodgers is 40-15 SU and 33-21-1 ATS in his career during October, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of more than 2 points. He is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in games with a losing record when facing .750 or greater opponents. Rodgers is also 22-34-1 SU and 32-23-2 ATS as a dog in his NFL career, with the 8.5-points he took at Seattle in the 2019 playoffs a benchmark high. On the flip side, his counterpart Josh Allen has faced the Packers once in his NFL career, a 22-0 loss at Lambeau Field in 2018. However, the Bills own the league’s No. 1-ranked offense and defense, making it as tough a one-two combo as there is the NFL these days. However, with Rodgers 7-0 SUATS versus rested foes coming off a SUATS win, and 10-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career with a win percentage of less than .666 when facing a foe with a win percentage of greater than .750, we’ll go with the pack.  To finish it off consider that playing on any NFL Sunday night non-division dog of more than 8 points versus a foe coming off a SUATS win is 18-2 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

First year coaches playing at home coming off a Bye week have struggled getting their team’s full attention, going just 6-10 SU and 4-10-2 ATS in this role since 2017, including 0-4 ATS behind .600 or greater teams. Making matters worse, the Vikes are 3-8 ATS with rest coming off a SUATS win. When the Cardinals beat New Orleans at home last week, it snapped an 8-game home losing skid back to when they topped Houston on October 24, a year ago. They improved to 9-2 in their last eleven games with WR DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup. With Zona head coach Kliff Kingsbury in his best role as a road dog going 15-5-1 ATS, including 7-1 ATS versus foes coming off a win, the points become the play today. 

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 5 Units

Las Vegas has cashed in each of the games, winning two of them on the scoreboard. Like Arizona, they are still on the outside looking in at the current NFL playoff picture. Unfortunately, they’ve struggled against foes coming off a Thursday game going just 4-10-1 ATS. And they’ve also wriggled in this series with a 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS mark the last ten gatherings. The Saints have won the stats in 5 of their seven games this season, including each of their last three games. As a result, they bring the better offense and the better defense into this fray. They are also 11-4 SU at home when playing off a SU previous home loss. Finally, consider that  NFL playoff teams the previous year are 6-22 SU and 7-20-1 ATS away in Game Seven when coming off consecutive ATS wins if not favored by 3 or more points, including 2-15 ATS if the Over/Under total in this game is greater than 40 points.

Upset of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Aggies have won and covered the last three games of this series, but they have gone 9 consecutive FBS games scoring 25 or fewer points – second-longest current streak in the FBS. Things are in crisis mode in College Station, as their fans are not used to seeing three consecutive defeats. Their saving grace is the fact they actually outgained their first FBS foe this season (they’re 1-5 ITS) in last week’s loss to South Carolina. Fisher lost three games in a row once in his career, (in 2011) but won the next game 41-16 at home against Duke. We call for the upset today. To cap it off,  Jimbo Fisher is 14-3 SU at home off consecutive losses, including 2-0 SUATS as a dog.

Rating: 3 Units

TCU has been living  on the razor’s edge lately, and that doesn’t bode well for the  Frogs today as they enter one of college football’s true house  of horrors: Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, West Virginia.  Neither does the Frogs’ 0-4 ATS record away with conference  revenge and their 1-7 ATS failure before playing Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers fare much better, cashing six straight series tickets over the Frogs, and going 10-5 ATS as home dogs versus unbeaten foes, including 3-0 SUATS the last three games and 3-0 ATS with a losing record. Consider that WVU head coach Neal Brown is 6-1 ATS in games versus undefeated foes in which they allow fewer than 30 PPG, including 4-0 SUATS when his team sports a losing record.

ACC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Notre Dame has been favored in the last eight matchups in this series since 2003 and even covered when a 33-point favorite in 2020. They are 3-1 ATS in the last four, 4-1 ATS away vs foes .800 or better, and a sturdy 9-3 ATS in ACC road games… PLUS a whopping 5-0 SUATS in the last five ACC battles. Meanwhile the state of the Orangemen must be called into doubt after the Clemson crusher, plus the Dome hasn’t always been a warm home to the football program. SU is a horrible 0-4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or fewer points when coming off a conference contest. Finally, ND is 17-6 ATS as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 10-1 ATS when the Irish are coming off a win of 4 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears' offense has been terrible this season as they have struggled with an inexperienced offensive line and a young receiver group. Chicago has the 31st-ranked scoring offense in the NFL thus far this season. They are the #2 ranked rushing offense but are dead last in passing offense. In the red zone, the Bears are equally inept, ranking 28th in the league in red zone offensive efficiency.  The Patriots' defense seems to be hitting its stride as they once again shut down an opponent. New England held the Browns #1 rushing attack to just 70 yards on the day. Overall, New England gave up 328 yards of total offense and had two interceptions and two fumble recoveries on the day. The Patriots had four sacks on the day and a whopping nine quarterback hits. They also had two tackles for loss in their second straight win.

Inter-conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

After starting 3-0 SUATS this season behind the lefty, the Fish ride a 0-3 SUATS skid entering this contest. The Dolphins have plummeted from being ranked fi rst in points per drive with Tagovailoa, to 29th without him. Tua, though, brings a lofty 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS career mark into this battle, including 10-4 SUATS at home. Nonetheless, concussions take center stage in this contest with new rookie QB Kenny Pickett currently in concussion protocol. Steelers’ backup QB Mitchell Trubisky completed nine of 12 passes for 144 yards and a TD in relief of Pickett who left last week’s game woozy with a concussion. Another side bar issue today will be the return of former Miami head coach and current Pittsburgh defensive assistant Brian Flores, who’s has had run-ins with Fish owner Stephen Ross over reported ‘tanking’ issues. However, .500 or greater NFL teams, 0-3 SUATS in their last three games, are 14-1 SUATS since 2000 when facing a foe coming off a SU underdog win.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Kansas City is 8-18 ATS as a favorite when coming off one loss when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 3-14 ATS versus avenging foes. The bottom line, though,  the Niners’ No. 1 ranked defense is 101 YPG superior to that of the Chiefs. That being the case, Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is 14-6 ATS as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more, including 6-0 ATS versus .714 or fewer opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

It’s been another year of frustration for the Jags, whose shortened nickname seems apropos. At the helm is QB Trevor Lawrence who after setting an NFL record for most fumbles in a game (4) two weeks ago, comes off the best effort of his NFL career last week after he completed 20-of-22 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown while adding two more TDs on the ground. But it wasn’t enough as the Colts scored the game winning touchdown with 23 seconds remaining to win 34-27. In the process, though, he also set another NFL record when he became the first quarterback in league history to complete over 90% of his passes on 20-plus attempts, score three touchdowns, commit no turnovers, and yet still lose the game. So, our question is why is Jacksonville suiting up as the favorite in this contest against the G-Men? However, the Jaguars 0-18 SU and 2-16 ATS in their last eighteen games against NFC competition.

Rating: 3 Units

If the playoffs began this week, the 3-3 Bucs would surprisingly be the No 3 seed in the NFC, based on the fact they sit on top in the NFC South. The Panthers situation continues to worsen with each passing week. After WR Robbie Anderson was kicked off the sidelines following an altercation with coaches on Sunday against the Rams, he was traded to Arizona on Monday. What the Panthers really need is a quarterback. An ugly 1-8 ATS log in games before facing a division foe, coupled with the fact that not only is Tampa 6-1 ATS in this series, but also Brady’s 22-6-1 ATS away record after his team was upended as a favorite in its previous game, makes this a one-way look.

Rating; 3 Units

The huge comeback win by the Colts last week vaults them back into contention in the wide-open AFC South where suddenly, if the NFL playoffs were to start this week, Indy would be the 7th and final seed from the AFC. Their counterpart Titans, by virtue of leading the AFC South, would hold down the No. 3 seed. Teams 3-2 teams after a 0-2 start (Tennessee) are 17-11-1 ATS in Game Six, but 0-3 SUATS when coming off a Bye week. In addition, the Titans are winless, 0-5, ITS (In The Stats) this season. Yes, we’d call them a false favorite in this matchup, especially with the Colts playing with a triple revenge chip on their shoulder. With the Nashville Cats 3-12 ATS in the first of consecutive division games, and the Colts 7-1 ATS versus opponents coming off Bye week.

Rating: 3 Units

Despite the Frogs’ unbeaten winning streak, they’re just 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten Big 12 battles, and 2-7 ATS as favorites of 7 or fewer points. TCU is also 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games, 1-4 ATS with conference revenge the last two years, and 1-6 ATS home versus a conference foe with rest. That’s a lot of money burning, folks, and it gets worse when we see that the Wildcats are on a 4-0 ATS skein versus the Frogs, and 5-1 ATS record of late when playing in Fort Worth. We’re not done: K-State is 6-0 ATS in the second of consecutive Big 12 road affairs, and 10-1-1 ATS in the last twelve versus foes playing with conference revenge. Finally, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS after scoring 10 or fewer points (beat Iowa State, 10-9) and if you think that scoreboard drought will be a problem, the last time Chris Klieman’s crew was held to 10 points, they dropped 41 on Oklahoma the following week. Finally consider that KSU head coach Klieman is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS against undefeated opponents coming off a win of 3-plus points, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Bama’s 40 straight appearances in the Top 5 ends as they fall to No. 6 entering this contest. However, before knee-jerking and deciding to back Bama here, you need to know that Nick Saban is just 6-13 ATS in his CFB head coaching career, including just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS at home when coming off a SUATS loss and facing an FBS opponent. Mississippi State HC, Mike Leach is 30-15 ATS after a double digit loss, including 15-4 ATS in the last 19 games. Additionally playing against any unrested double-digit conference favorite from Game 7 out off its first loss of the season as a conference favorite of more than 7 points if they’re facing a greater than .333 conference foe off a loss is 15-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 units

Defensively, Missouri has allowed 26 points or less in four straight, including a near miss at home against Georgia (26-22), and a road trip to Florida, where they fell by seven as double-digit underdogs. QB Brady Cook looks to be evolving, completing 67.7 percent of his passes over the last two weeks, while running backs Nathaniel Peat and Cody Schrader are both averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry, which should play well against Vandy’s 87th-ranked rush defense that’s allowing 4.7 ypc and 10 touchdowns in conference. Missouri is winless in conference, and have to get on track, another reason we should expect max effort from a rested side

Rating; 3 Units

Amazingly OU West is terrible at defending their turf in a triple revenge match, going 0-4 ATS against a foe seeking to finally win one. Oregon is also on shaky ground in this series when coming off an ATS win of 13 or greater, going 0-5 ATS. The Bruins have a large stack of good numbers: 6-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points, 3-1 ATS off a home dog win – and Chip Kelly’s gambling numbers are even more intimidating. He’s 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS away off a win as a college coach. Consider as well that 6-0 dogs are 17-5-1 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win of 10 points or more.

MAC game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

After a slow 0-3 start, the Bulls have kicked their heels and ride a 4-0 SUATS win skein entering this contest. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG in those four games, while the defense has held its last two opponents to just 7 points apiece. Buffalo in this series is 5-1 ATS of late, including 3-0 ATS at UB Stadium. Buffalo is also 12-4-1 ATS as a home dog, including 5-0-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opposition. Head coach Maurice Linguist, had sunk to 4-11 with the Bulls until they went on their recent 4 game rampage. Buffalo is 7-2 SU and 8-0-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS favorite win. Also, consider that playing on any college football home dog who is 4-0 SUATS in its last four games if they were favored in their last game is  22-9 ATS since 1980, including 20-4 ATS if they are facing a foe coming off consecutive wins..

Rating; 2 Units

This one is a matchup of a team that can’t score against one that has had major issues keeping the opposition off the scoreboard this season. Denver is second-worst in the league in scoring and their inability to put the ball in the end zone proved too much to overcome against a Colts team that is dead last in scoring offense. That puts Wilson and company in a tough situation here as the Chargers are in the upper echelon of scoring offenses in the league. Denver’s defense has been solid and kept them in games this season though they face a stiff challenge here. Ekeler has been on fire the last couple of weeks and Herbert is getting healthier after suffering that rib injury back in week two against the Chiefs. Playing at home with the potential of having Allen back in the mix here makes the Chargers too dangerous for the Broncos to handle.

SNF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The stat that jumps out in this contest is that both teams rank No. 1 and 2 in Net Turnover Margin, with Philly +1.8 and Dallas +1.0. For what it’s worth, the Eagles are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS under Nick Sirianni in games in which they lose the TOs, while the Cowboys are 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS the same way under Mike McCarthy. Meanwhile, where Sunday night home teams coming off consecutive wins tend to struggle, there is no refuting the fact that teams who just upset the defending Super Bowl champions are close to no shows the following game. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in games after Rams, and the Eagles seeking triple revenge it's important knowing America’s Team is a meager 1-9 SUATS away versus .428 or greater foes seeking triple revenge.  Finally, playing against any NFL away team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in their last game by 7+ points and scored 28+ points if they’re facing a .400 > foe and the O/U total in this game is < 44 is a PERFECT 15-0 ATS since 1980.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

It starts with KC QB Patrick Mahomes’ 12-1 SU mark versus .777 or greater foes, as well as his 4-1 SUATS record at home versus the AFC East during the regular season. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen has struggled away in his NFL career against .700 or better foes, going just 2-5 SUATS. Digging deeper, the Bills are 1-12 ATS in the 2nd quarter of the season (Games 5-8) with a .500 or greater win percentage when coming off a SUATS win and facing an opponent coming off a home game. Head coach Andy Reid brings in a 28-9-1 ATS dog log into this prime time showdown when coming off consecutive wins, including 4-0-1 ATS at home. Consider also that the Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career.

Rating: 3 Units

Tomlin has been at his best taking points at home, going 12-2-5 ATS in his career, including 5-0-2 ATS since 2018. And for what it’s worth, he is 10-3 SUATS overall when coming off a loss of 17 or more points – including 4-0 ATS as a dog. Tampa enters just 2-6 ATS as road chalk of 4 or more points, and 1-5 ATS the last six games in this series. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against NFC South. Finally, consider that NFL non-division road favorites off three straight home games are 1-16 ATS when facing foes coming off consecutive losses, the last by 13 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Jacksonville out gained Houston by 174 yards in last week’s 13-6 loss. The Jags are also 9-1-1 ATS the last eleven games in this series, as well as 4-1-1 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday contest. On the other side of the field, Indy is on a 0-4 SUATS losing slide when coming off a SU underdog win, while head coach Frank Reich is only 12-22-2 ATS against sub .500 opponents, including 3-10-1 ATS when coming off a win. Finally, Indy is a dismal 1-7 ATS in their last eight division home games.

Rating: 3 Units

FSU is 1-4 ATS at home in a conference revenge game, 1-4 ATS before the Bye week, 2-7 ATS in Game 7.  Tigers haven't posted those eye-popping winning margins as was a weekly happening in the Watson & Lawrence glory years, but just keep getting it done, with QB Uiagalelei improving by the week, standing at a sweet 14/2 TD/INT ratio. Clemson is 4-0 ATS in the last four of this series. Clemson is clearly improving and a groggy bunch of Seminoles hungover from last week is just what the Tigers should munch on to remain unbeaten.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The bottom line is that Brian Kelly will need to do a better job or his one-game deficit in the SEC West will be blowing in the wind. At least he helps himself by bringing along a 21-12 ATS record as a road dog, including 9-1 ATS off an ATS loss of 9 or more points. LSU has also held its own in the last nine series contests with Florida, going 6-2-1 ATS overall and 3-1 SUATS away. New Gators head coach Billy Napier looks to be behind the 8-ball here, as the host team has gone 1-4 ATS in five lined games under Napier this season. Florida also hasn’t fared well of late in home games when playing with SEC revenge, going just 1-4 ATS. Consider finally, that Napier stands 5-11-1 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS versus .666 or greater opponents.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

First, BYU in the favorite role at home is 2-6 ATS when the spread is under 6 points. Second, Arkansas is 5-1 ATS as a dog of 6 or less. Third, the Razorbacks are a sharp 4-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Even better, or worse depending on whom you’re rooting for, a top-notch SEC underdog coming off losses to Bama and Texas A&M finds itself 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in this situation. Consider that the Cougars have not faired well versus the SEC going 1-8 ATS versus SEC foes since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

Penn State has gone 2-0 SUATS so far in road trips this season while Michigan’s sole cover in three home games came against pitiful Connecticut. Penn State is also 4-1-1 ATS as dogs versus an undefeated conference opponent, and head coach James Franklin chips in with a money-making 37-18-1 ATS mark when coming off consecutive wins. Additionally the Lions bring in a 21-4 SU and 17-6-1 ATS record when undefeated, including 14-2-1 ATS when facing winning foes. To Cap it off, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is 2-11 ATS in his CFB career in games involving undefeated opponents, including 0-9 ATS the last nine games.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas is a miserable 1-8 ATS as double-digit chalk in conference games. On the flip side, the Cyclones are 6-0 ATS as dogs of 3-plus points when coming off a loss, and following a tough 1-point loss at home against Kansas State last week, the Cyclones suddenly find themselves with their backs to the college bowl wall. That’s where head coach Matt Campbell comes to the rescue, as he is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit dog in conference games, including 10-0 ATS versus .500 or greater foes.

Rating: 3 Units

Ole Miss doesn't have any reason to look past Auburn despite the Tigers' .500 record and struggling offense. The meat of the Rebels schedule awaits them after this game with matchups at LSU, at Texas A&M and finally at home against Alabama. The Rebels need a convincing win against Auburn as they ready for a make-or-break run in the SEC.  Ole Miss's ground game should easily overwhelm Auburn's 62nd ranked rushing defense and the new wrinkle of a solid passing attack will likely be unveiled yet again when Auburn attempts to stack the box. Kiffin has never been known for his modest goals so don't expect the Ole Miss taskmaster to take his foot off the gas in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

SMU is only 1-6 ATS in Weekday games and 1-4 ATS versus opponents with double revenge, but they’re also 0-7 ATS as conference home favorites when coming off consecutive losses. That’s a perfect set-up for Navy’s mind boggling 15-0-1 ATS as a dog off a win versus losing foes.

Rating; 2 Units

Owls are just 1-4 ATS in this series and riding a 0-6 SUATS losing skein in their last six road games. Ugh. Meanwhile, UCF’s program continues to live the high life (nine bowls in last ten seasons), though fans were somewhat disappointed in Gus Malzahn’s 9-4 debut last year after finishing 41-8 the previous four seasons. They were also quite upset when the Knights took the biggest fall in the AP Poll two weeks ago, snapping a 33-week streak of being ranked. However, UCF has won three straight and with an extra week to prepare, should be in a salty mood here tonight. Since they’ve beaten the Owls by 109 points in the last three meetings, we look for more of the same this evening.

Rating: 3 Units

Playing On any Monday night home team coming off back-to-back away games if they are facing a foe coming off a home game. That’s because these MNF hosts are 33-13 ATS in this role when coming off a SUATS win. Tie in the Raiders’ 1-7 ATS mark in games when seeking triple revenge, and their 1-4 ATS record in their last five division road games, and we certainly don’t want to go against Mahomes here, not when he sports a 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS record under the Monday Night lights. 

SNF Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Baltimore has been outgained in all four games this season.  Cincinnati’s strength this season has been its defense as they rank No. 8 in points allowed and No. 11 in overall yards allowed. They are also one of five teams that have been installed as a favorite in every game this year – yet dress up as a dog today. Finally, consider that  Cincinnati is 12-1 ATS against foes seeking double revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall. The 49ers have only covered the spread twice in their last nine meetings with Carolina, but the Panthers have gone 1-10 ATS in their previous 11 contests overall. San Francisco is scoring just 17.8 points per game (tied-27th), but the Niners’ defense could easily add to the scoreboard while shutting down Baker Mayfield and Christian McCaffrey.  Baker Mayfield had a bad day in the office against Arizona’s defense, going 22-of-36 for 197 yards, a TD, and a couple of interceptions. He also lost a fumble, so it’s no strange Baker was booed by the home fans. Christian McCaffrey posted eight totes for 27 yards while catching all of his nine targets for 81 yards and a TD, and DJ Moore added six receptions for 50 yards. 

Rating: 3 units

Wilson’s late 81-and-65-yard drives to defeat the Steelers last week and with it they bring a Top 10 ranked offense and defense in this game. That makes them a dog with the better offense and the better defense, and that tells us, we’d better take the points. The Dolphins are just 1-7 ATS in this series. To cap it off, playing against any .545 > NFL away team off a loss, that was preceded by three wins, who won 9 or fewer games last season if they are facing a division foe off a win is 16-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 Units

Tomlin is 5-0 SUATS the last five games overall when riding a losing streak of three or more games. All of which ties into his terrific 34-9 SU and 28-12-3 ATS mark in games without a winning record from Game Five out in his career – including 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as a dog. Meanwhile, the Bills return home off a gift at Baltimore where head coach John Harbaugh fell asleep at the wheel while allowing Buffalo to escape with a win. It doesn’t help knowing Buffalo is just 3-7 ATS when coming off back-to-back travelers as well as 3-5 ATS when hosting AFC North guests. 

NFC South Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Brady is 12-4 ATS in his NFL career when his team is coming off consecutive losses, as well as 23-7 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit loss. To clinch it, Brady is 7-1 ATS when his team is coming off a double-digit home loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games.

PAC-12 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Washington State is 7-2 ATS as the visitor  in this series and 12-3 ATS in Game One of back-to-back road games. Looking up another Washington State stat yields: 7-0 ATS on the road against double-digit unbeaten favorites. USC makes this decision easier by being 2-11 ATS in Game 6, 1-6 ATS home versus conference triple vengeance, and 2-6 ATS in game two of a back-to-back conference affair at home. Add to that the risk of SC looking ahead to a big-time revenge matchup with Utah next week and the LA crowd might be distracted.