Rating: 2 Units

It’s very challenging to know what a win is going to do mentally and emotionally for a San Antonio team that had lost 16 straight games. I am not ready to take the leap on the Spurs just yet, though, and the betting market doesn’t appear to be either. This spread quickly moved one point towards Indiana after the opener was released, as the Spurs have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 16 games. They have also failed to cover in six straight home games against Indiana. The Pacers have also started to round into playoff form, covering the number in four of their last five contests.

Rating: 2 Units

This should be a pretty good game as Porzinigis is expected to return for this one. That helps even out the length advantage that Toronto normally has. Toronto is just 11-19 on the road and while Poetl was a nice pickup, Washington faced him on Jan. 30 when Porzingis put up 17 points, nine rebounds and seven assists with five blocks in a 127-106 win over the Spurs. Toronto is not the Spurs, but here we are, with the playoffs coming up and they are still under .500. They should have done more at the trade deadline because the chemistry is obviously not working. Neither is their defensive effort.

Rating: 2 Units'

Juan Howard’s Wolverine hoopsters are in need of every win they can muster if they wish to impress the selection committee. Fortunately for Howard, his team has responded with a 5-2 SUATS February compared to a middling 3-3 SUATS effort from the Illini. The Wolverines are 6-1-1 ATS with revenge in this series (Illini took them down twice last season) when Illinois enters with a sub. 700 win percentage, and the WOM reminds us the Wolves are 8-4 ATS as a dog during the regular season following a LHG, including 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS when facing sub .750 foes. As if that’s not enough to contend with, Illinois is staring down a double revenge affair of its own on tap with highly-ranked Purdue. Remember, Michigan was a preseason Top 20 pick in the polls, so the talent is still there.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears had dropped two straight games to Kansas and Kansas State prior to a same-season revenger against Texas at Waco over the weekend, and they’re just 4-20 SU and 8-16 ATS after the Longhorns, including 3-14 ATS when coming off a loss (check Saturday result). That doesn’t bode well considering the Pokes are 6-0-1 ATS in this series with same-season revenge from a loss of 7 or more points when Baylor takes the floor with a greater than .666 win percentage. Oklahoma State also performs well in Last Home Games, going 21-7 SU and 18-10 ATS the last this role, including 3-0 SUATS with same-season revenge of 15-plus points. Home teams in the Big 12 have fl exed their muscles this campaign, going 123-28 SU overall and 50-25 SU in conference clashes. Those stats look especially good when the visiting Bears bring a woeful 5-22 ATS record when coming off a home game and facing foes in LHGs.

Rating: 2 Units

Orlando pulled off a 13-point victory a month ago and now heads to New Orleans looking to try to sweep the season series. Prior to that victory, the road team had won the previous four games and the road team is 7-3 straight up in the last 10. Another thing you should like is that the Magic are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in New Orleans. While the Pelicans may win this game, 5.0 points may be a little too much for them in this contest. They have dropped three in a row and four of the last five. This team has only beaten two of their last four opponents by more than five points, so take the Magic and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Red-hot Atlantic Division rivals collide when the Boston Celtics come to the Mecca of basketball to face the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Boston is on a three-game run with just a single loss in its previous eight games (7-1 ATS) while New York rides a five-game winning streak and has also only tasted defeat once in its past eight outings (6-1-1 ATS). Julius Randle has been at his best of late and while the Celtics have the NBA's best record, they'll be without Jaylen Brown. As a result, they'll be playing much smaller, leaving ample opportunity for Randle to shine down low.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Charlotte Hornets, as they have won four games in a row and they are the better defensive team in this matchup. The Pistons are also one of the worst teams in the NBA this season, as they continue to slide in the wrong direction. They are scoring the 27th most points per game and they are allowing the second-most points. They will continue to struggle on both ends of the court, as Charlotte will slowly pulls away. The Hornets are also scoring 112.6 points per game and they looked great against the Heat the last time they were on the floor. They will find consistent open shots throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage. They will also sprint the ball up and down the court, as they will have plenty of scoring opportunities to cover this spread. Detroit only has the 28th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are allowing their opponents to shoot 49% from the floor. They aren't applying enough pressure, as the Hornets will make them pay. Charlotte is playing solid basketball right now.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m not going to overthink this matchup. The Trail Blazers will get both Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant back, so I’m expecting Portland to beat Houston with ease. The Blazers have covered the spread in each of their previous two meetings with the Rockets, winning by 12 and 14 points. Damian Lillard will dominate the Rockets’ defense. He’s been unstoppable all season, tallying 31.4 points and 7.3 assists per game. Lillard has scored 38 or more points in seven of his previous 11 appearances.

Rating: 2 Units

Oklahoma City is playing their third game in four nights coming out of the All-Star break here after losing at Utah and Phoenix. The Thunder definitely will have their problems keeping up with Sacramento if Gilgeous-Alexander misses the game. Sacramento showed grit by rallying to take down the Clippers after trailing by 14 with under five minutes to play in regulation, then by six in both overtimes. The Kings have plenty of weapons to do damage offensively and they lead the league in scoring offense this season. Sacramento had Saturday off to rest and recover and they are deep. That proves critical as they earn a win on the road here.

Rating: 2 Units

UCLA has not only won seven in a row but is 4-2-1 ATS in that span. Colorado is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Bruins beat a double-digit spread against the Buffaloes last time despite trailing for over half the game. Their defense absolutely shut down an inefficient Colorado offense and should be able to do it again. I wouldn't worry about UCLA playing on the road either, as they're 8-2 in away games this season and 6-3-1 ATS. I'm riding a team that's hot and has an elite defense against a team that's cold and has a lackluster offense. Take UCLA to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

I am going to roll with the Chicago Bulls at home. They are the better defensive team in this matchup, as I see them getting enough stops to cover this spread. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Bulls have the fourth-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the ninth-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will continue to contest shots and make it very difficult for Washington to keep up. The Bulls are also scoring 113.4 points per game and they have the sixth-highest team shooting percentage. The Wizards will struggle on the defensive end of the court and quickly fall behind in this game. They are allowing the 15th most points per game and they only have the 18th lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will continue to struggle on the road and the Bulls will continue to roll after their dominating win against the Nets.

Rating: 2 Units

Currently in a three-way tie for 3rd place in the MVC, the 5-returning starter Sycamores have been on a scorching 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS skein with the only loss coming by a single point at Belmont, 89-88. We expect them to return to their winning ways here, especially since they were nipped by Missouri State, 64-62, in Springfi eld in mid-January. In the 11 games since beating the Sycamores, the Bears are a money-burning 2-8-1 ATS. Yes, they arrive off a off same season revenge victory over Murray State, but they’re just 1-3 ATS after running with the Racers. The final coffin nail for Missouri State is its 0-5 ATS failure in the last five games when coming off a win. Additionally, Indiana State is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in Last Home Games of the season, including 4-0-1 ATS when playing with revenge.

Rating: 3 Units

Maryland is unbeaten in its nine conference home games this season, making the Terrapins a team that I am thrilled to back on Sunday afternoon, especially given the circumstances. Northwestern is coming off its most disappointing loss of the season, blowing a 16-point lead in the second half of its game against Illinois. The Wildcats have only won three of the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these teams, and they have a major emotional hurdle to overcome in this contest. Maryland has covered in eight of its last 11 games and should fare well against a Northwestern offense that has a tendency to go cold.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spurs’ losing streak will eventually come to an end, but with all the injury problems among Gregg Popovich’s team, I can’t back San Antonio in a tough road matchup against Utah. The Jazz are struggling to defend at a high level, but they should be scoring at will against this Spurs team. San Antonio is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games overall. The Spurs beat the Jazz 126-122 in December, and Utah will be highly motivated to get revenge. Lauri Markkanen is poised for another strong performance, and the Jazz should make a lot of threes in this matchup. Utah is fifth in the league in triples made per 100 possessions (14.0).  

NBA Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Philly is 24-6 SU and 22-10 ATS at home this season, and ranks No. 3 overall in the league in Team Scoring Defense. On the fl ip side, Boston’s Achilles Heel is its 28th ranked effort in Team Rebounds this season. In addition, the shamrocks were riding a 0-5 SUATS skein here in this series until the aforementioned win they scored late in the campaign last season. With the Celts coming off a same season revenge win at Indiana on Thursday, and staring dead ahead to same-season revenge rematches with the Knicks and the Cavs, we need to consider that the Sixers are 12-0 SUATS at home this season when seeking same-season loss revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

I am going to ride with the New York Knicks at home. They are the better defensive team in this matchup in my opinion, as I see them getting enough stops to cover the spread in this game. The Knicks are holding their opponents to the third-lowest shooting percentage and the fifth-lowest three-point shooting percentage. They will continue to contest shots consistently throughout this game, as the Pelicans won't score enough points to stay competitive. New York is also holding their opponents to the 10th least amount of points per game and they looked great in their last game against the Atlanta Hawks. They will stay hot in this one and consistently score throughout. The Pelicans are allowing the 16th most points per game and they did not impress me against the Raptors in their last game.

Rating: 2 Units

Indiana has dropped its last 2 games on the road against Northwestern (64-62, Feb. 15) and Michigan State (80-65, Tuesday), and the Hoosiers are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) across the past 3 games overall. It seems like forever since the Hoosiers picked up a 79-74 win over the rival Boilermakers, but it was just on Feb. 4. Purdue snapped a 2-game mini skid with an emphatic 82-55 win over disappointing Ohio State Sunday. While the Boilermakers have dropped 3 in a row on the road, they love a little home cooking, going 15-1 at home.

Rating: 2 Units

I am going to take the Magic at home, as I see them being the better defensive team in this matchup. They will be able to get consistent stops and slowly pull away throughout this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Magic have the 13th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the seventh-lowest shooting percentage from behind the arc. The Pacers only have the 25th-highest team shooting percentage and the 17th-highest adjusted offensive rating. They will struggle to consistently put the ball in the basket, which will allow the Magic to cover this spread. The Indiana defense has also lacked, as I see the Magic efficiently scoring in this game. The Pacers are allowing the 24th most points per game and they have the 24th lowest adjusted defensive rating. They struggled on the defensive end of the court in their last game against the Celtics and I see that trend continuing in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Boise State is currently breathing down the neck of MWC leader San Diego State, just one game back at press time. Then there’s the ugly fact that it’s been almost a month since BSU cashed a ticket, going 6-1 SU but only 1-6 ATS. Conference road favorites on a 5-game ATS losing skid like Boise are just 7-13 ATS against winning opposition, including 3-10 SUATS when favored by 4 or fewer points. And not only are the Spartans 3-0 ATS the last three games in this series, and 3-0 SUATS at home when coming off a previous home loss, they’ve logged a competitive 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS home record at The Event Center this season. With the Broncos taking the court off a same-season revenge win against New Mexico and sporting just a 3-7 ATS effort against avenging foes in post-Lobo competitions, west coast Sparty gets the call.

Rating; 2 Units

Oklahoma State is in danger of sliding off the dreaded NCAA Tournament bubble completely. But while they return home off three straight double digit losses, the Pokes do own a 7-2 SUATS ledger at Gallagher-Iba Arena when playing off three losses exact. They’re also 4-0 SUATS at home off a loss this season, and 3-0 ATS home in this series when seeking revenge from a same-season defeat of 6-plus points. Kansas State, easily the surprise team in what has been a Big 12 meat-grinder of a campaign, may have 21 wins in the bank but the Wildcats aren’t exactly a fi ne-tuned machine of late, losing 4 of their last seven games. Even worse for first-year KSU head coach Jerome Tang, his squad’s home-road dichotomy sticks out like a sore thumb: 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS at Manhattan as opposed to 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS away. Toss in a triple revenger on deck with Oklahoma for the Purple Cats, and Kansas State looks to be in over its head here in Stillwater.

Rating: 2 Units

While the South Carolina game was nearly a disaster, being back home should bring Bama back to their usual dominance. At home, they are significantly better on both ends of the floor than their season averages, and their numbers this season are already elite. Along with that, they're 9-4-0 ATS at home while Arkansas is 2-6-0 ATS on the road. These teams play the same brand of basketball, Alabama just does everything better. The first game proved that, and now that this one is in Tuscaloosa, Alabama should roll into another resounding victory. Take the Crimson Tide to cover the spread against the Razorbacks again.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears struggled in their losses to Kansas and Kansas State as they wilted in the second half of both games in hostile environments. On the plus side for the Bears, this game is at home, where they have had success, posting a 13-2 record. Their two losses came by a combined three points with one of those coming in overtime. Texas won the first meeting this season but that was before the return of Tchamwa Tchatchoua. The Longhorns are just 4-4 on the road this season with all four defeats coming by at least seven points. Baylor is out to avenge the loss in Austin and to get back on track heading into the final week of the regular season. George and Cryer feed off the crowd to help the Bears get back in the win column.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

The Dawgs are 3-0 ATS home as a dog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in this series, 3-0 SUATS as a conference home dog when coming off a loss of 30-plus points, and 5-1 ATS as conference home dogs over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, Missouri stands just 2-4 SUATS in games after battling MSU and the Tigers have struggled to cash tickets of late, going just 1-5 ATS in their six most recent outings. In this battle of cats and dogs, we’ll back the Dawgs with added support coming knowing that playing on any college hoops home dog with a winning record coming off consecutive losses of 28 or more points is 7-1 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 3 Units

I am not overly concerned about Iowa’s recent losses on the road, as the Hawkeyes have been much better at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They rely almost entirely on their offense to win games, making them a team to back at home and fade on the road. In fact, they have won seven straight home games coming into this contest, and they should be in somewhat of a desperation mode to get back on track with NCAA Tournament seeding. Michigan State has only covered the spread once in the last five meetings between these teams and its dependence on 3-point shots makes is going to cost the Spartans on Saturday.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wolves are a sharp 3-1 SUATS at home in games when coming off three-plus days of rest, while the Stingers are just 2-12 SU and 5-9 ATS in non-division games when coming off a win. However, Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last five games this season when coming off one loss

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulls have lost six straight games, but they’ve played better at home where they have won three of their last five games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 114 points per game. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 83 percent of their free throws at home. They rebound the ball well and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass in their last three games, grabbing more than 10 offensive rebounds per game in their last three games, which will lead to more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in recent games, and won’t give the Nets a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Nets aren’t very good defensively and they play worse on the road, where they are giving up more than 113 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bulls in this game. The Nets have lost four of their last six games and three straight road games. They usually play well offensively, but they struggled before the break, scoring less than 108 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Bulls and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Bulls, who average more than seven steals per game at home. The Bulls aren’t great defensively, but they play better at home and held their last three opponents under 110 points per game, so don’t expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Nets in this game.

NBA Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The majority of games on tonight’s NBA game are laced with teams each playing with 8 days of rest on this post All-Star Friday. And 8 is a magic number for Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra who brings a career log of 7-1 ATS when his troops are playing with eight or more days of rest during the regular season (read: post All-Star game), including 6-0 ATS when facing .400 or greater opponents. Foremost on their minds tonight, though, will be exacting revenge from a 123-115 loss here three weeks ago. And with it the stars should be lined in their favor. On the other side of the court Milwaukee is 1-6 ATS in this series when operating on three or more days of rest.  Finally, Miami is 10-1 ATS when seeking revenge from a same season defeat of fewer than 20 points when coming off a double-digit defeat and facing a foe that is coming off a double-digit win.

Rating: 2 Units

Xavier was one of just three teams with a chance to catch conference-leading Marquette before the league tournament. However, with a 20-win season in check (see Saturday result vs DePaul) and coming off a tussle at home against Villanova, this looks to be a natural let down spot for the X-Men. That notion is supported by the Musketeers’ 4-9 ATS effort versus .600 or fewer opponents this season, including 0-5 ATS the last five. The revenge angle is more than a notion, however, as the Pirates lost at the Cintas Center back in December, 73-70, and just so happen to own a 4-0 SUATS mark with revenge in this series of late. Most importantly for the kids in the Hall are squarely on the ever-shifting NCAA bubble. But we’ve got no time for bubble talk, not when we can tell you the Pirates own a rock-solid 20-10 ATS ledger as dogs versus .750 or greater foes. Grab the points. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Bruins took the first matchup between these two teams by 19 points while holding the Utes to just 49 points overall. UCLA has won seven of the last ten meetings between the two schools. They have the best road mark in the Pac-12 at 7-2 and are 22-2 this season as a favorite. UCLA is 5-3-1 ATS on the road this year as well. They have won six straight against Utah and are 4-2 ATS in that time. Additionally, Utah is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

The 76ers have won four straight games and six of their last seven home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 115 points per game. They’ve also done a good job at the charity stripe, making over 94 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They rebound the ball well and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Grizzlies a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Grizzlies have struggled defensively this season and they play worse on the road, giving up more than 116 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the 76ers in this game. The Grizzlies have won three of their last four games, but they’ve lost seven straight road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 113 points per game on the road. But they’ve struggled at the free throw line, making less than 70 percent of their free throws in their last three games. Their rebounding has been very good and will keep them in this game, but they’re very careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the 76ers, who average more than eight steals per game at home. The 76ers play well defensively at home and they dominated opposing offenses in recent games, giving up less than 105 points per game in their last three games, and won’t have trouble keeping Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Philadelphia to cover the spread.

Rating: 3 Units

Cavs fell 118-112 at Philadelphia while the Nuggets beat Dallas, 118-109, in the Mile High City. The loss snapped a 6-game Cleveland win skein and sets the table for this fray with Cleveland intent on evening the score from a 13-point loss they suffered in Denver with the Cavs 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS this season in games when coming off one-loss, as well as 8-4 SUATS this campaign when looking to avenge a same-season defeat of 8 or more points. Enter the gold diggers, just 2-6 ATS overall in games when playing with seven or more days of rest, as well as 3-9 ATS away when coming off consecutive wins this season. Finally, consider that Cleveland is 26-11 SUATS at home the past two seasons against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS the last eight versus .640 or greater opposition.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics fell to Indiana back in December by seven points at the TD Garden in the only matchup between these two teams. Since then, however, the Celtics' defense has improved significantly, and they are as healthy as they've been all season heading out of the All-Star break. Indiana's poor perimeter defense will not play well to a Celtics team that is sixth in the NBA in 3pt shooting. The Celtics also have a significant advantage on the wings with the Pacers not having the types of defenders to match up with Brown or Tatum. The Celtics will also enjoy a rare, significant advantage on the glass against a Pacers team that is ranked just 21st in the NBA in total rebounding. Look for Boston's defense to stifle the Pacers and the team's perimeter shooting to bury Indiana.

Rating: 2 Units

New Mexico went on a 0-4 SUATS losing skid when the Valentine month rolled around and took a 0-3 ATS record against avenging foes this season into San Jose State at press time. No such misery has befallen the Broncos, currently one loss back of San Diego State for the top spot in the MWC. Boise State has a huge advantage in momentum, winning 10 of its last 12 contests before hosting UNLV on Sunday. And guess what? One of those two defeats came in an 81-79 close-call OT loss to the Lobos in Albuquerque a month ago. Big Blue is 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS versus .600 or greater foes this season, including 2-0 SUATS when playing the revenge card. Best of all, the Broncos have dictated the point spread outcomes in this series of late, going 8-1 ATS. Simply put, we’re seeing signs of the Lobos packing their bags early this season.

Rating: 2 Units

Texas State is 217th in the nation with a -3.30 rating while South Alabama is 110th in the sport with a +5.88 rating so far. These teams have been in two opposite directions in terms of defense as the Jaguars are allowing 54 points in their last five games while the Bobcats are giving up 75.7 points in their previous three games. Looking at the ATS record in the last 10 games, South Alabama is 7-3 ATS while Texas State is a brutal 3-7 ATS in that span. All in all, go with the South Alabama Jaguars to cover the spread on the road in this game. 

Rating: 2 Units

Fortunately for UCF fans, the series host is on a money-making 14-3 ATS run. That sets the table for big-time revenge, as the Bulls tripped up the Knights, 85-72, as 4.5-point home dogs a month ago. In addition to being 26-1-1 ATS in outright conference wins when seeking revenge, the formerly golden Knights stand 3-0 SUATS in this series when seeking same-season loss revenge. Considering South Florida is 1-10 SU versus .570 or great foes this season – with the lone win versus UCF – Finally, USF is 0-18 ATS in its last 18 outright conference losses versus avenging foes.

Rating: 2 Units

I can't find a reason not to bet on Bradley in this one. They're better than Valpo on a per-possession basis in nearly every statistic. They've won eight straight and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. They won four of those six games by double digits. Meanwhile, Valpo is 1-3-0 ATS in their last four. The Beacons' only edge in the first game was with fouls. They committed 10 fewer than Valpo did and finished with 17 more free throw attempts. Despite that, Valpo never had a lead in the game and trailed by as much as 33. That game was never close, and this game shouldn't be either. 

CBB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Tom Izzo and his troops as they’re a glittery 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS mark in home games when seeking revenge after meetings with the Wolverines, including 8-0 SUATS the last eight games. Thus, it’s no surprise that we’re backing Sparty once again this week, especially when MSU has racked up a 20-2 SU and 16-6 ATS record at home in this series, including 4-0 SUATS when seeking same-season revenge from a double-digit loss (fell 82-69 in Bloomington a month ago). The Hoosiers are playing well, riding an 8-2 SU win skein before hosting Illinois last Saturday, and are currently locked in third place in the Big Ten chase. But they’re facing a double whammy here: besides owning a dreadful 2-7-1 ATS record on the road this season, they’ve also got a date with in-state rival Purdue up next, and Indiana is 0-4 ATS before Boiler bouts. Toss in the fact that the Hoosiers are 19-89-3 ATS in Big Ten games they lose outright against avenging opponents. Despite what could be a somber atmosphere to begin tonight’s clash, we declare it’s “Iz Time” again in the Breslin Center, and we seal the deal with the fact that playing on Michigan State and head coach Tom Izzo at home from Game 20 out in a conference game when seeking revenge from a same-season loss is 24-7 ATS since 2002.

Rating: 2 Units

The Baylor Bears are looking good, winning four of their last five games with the only loss in that span occurring against Kansas. Baylor is strong on the road where they have won four of their last six bouts including a win against TCU earlier this month. The Kansas State Wildcats have dropped two out of their last three games. Baylor is the superior offensive team by a huge margin. They are averaging 122 points per 100 possessions, good for 2nd in the country while Kansas State is only averaging 111.8 points per 100. Kansas State has not been producing, averaging only 63 points in their last three games including only 65 in a 79-65 loss to a poor Oklahoma team last week.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Broncos are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record, 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. While the Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cardinals rode the moment of the 10-year anniversary of a championship team and a packed house on Saturday to pull off their biggest upset of the season. Looking a little deeper, however, the Cardinals have played significantly better over the latter part of this season. The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. They are also a respectable 4-4 ATS on the road this season. Meanwhile, Duke comes in just 6-7 ATS at home this season despite being 13-0. Additionally, the Blue Devils are 3-10 in their last 13 games ATS. Duke will win this game but the Cardinals will continue their recent momentum and cover this line.

Rating: 2 Units

I do not trust Oklahoma State’s offense to come up with enough buckets to keep pace with West Virginia on Monday night. I am also extremely concerned about the defensive effort that they showed on Saturday, as they have been one of the top defensive teams in college basketball this season. This is a rough spot to try to turn things around, as West Virginia is in a revenge spot at home and tends to play better at its home arena due to the offensive-minded nature of its lineup. Oklahoma State’s bad offense tends to be the deciding factor away from home, as it is 4-12 in its last 16 road games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Huskers will win straight-up at home vs. Maryland. They'll have another hot shooting night, especially from three, which will be tough for the Terps (335th in 3PT%) to duplicate. When Maryland gets on a roll, it reminds us why the Big Ten was siked to add the program to its collection of hoops powerhouses. It's too soon, though, to expect Maryland to rise to the top of the conference under a new head coach. Winning six of seven is great for the direction of the program, but UM's luck will run out on the road against a Nebraska team that's better than it has played this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The fact is the Tigers were whipped by the Cougars, 71-53, in the finals of the AAC title game last season – causing today’s ‘Revenge’ domino to set things in motion. First, Memphis is 12-3 ATS in this series, including 5-0 ATS when seeking revenge, and 6-0 ATS when coming off a win. Next, the guys from Graceland are 8-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS when seeking LTKO (League Tourney Knock Out) revenge, including 5-0 ATS when coming off a win. And like OJ’s hand struggling to fi t in the famous glove, Houston can offer up only a 1-5 ATS failure at home versus LTKO seeking foes in its defense, including 0-4 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. Look, the Cougars have made all their money on the road this season, going 7-1 ATS as a visitor as opposed to just 8-8 ATS as a host, including a gaudy 0-7 ATS against .430 or greater opposition.

Rating: 2 Units

Wright State (16-12 SU, 15-11 ATS) defeated Cleveland State on Friday. The Raiders are 3-2 straight-up in their past five and 9-8 in Horizon League competition. Purdue Fort Wayne (15-13 SU, 9-17 ATS) lost to Northern Kentucky on Friday. The Mastodons are 1-4 straight-up in their past five and 7-10 in conference play this season.

Rating: 2 Units

Ohio State continues to be an unbackable team right now, as it is winless straight up and against the spread in seven straight games. The Buckeyes are running into a Purdue team that is returning home angry after suffering its first losing streak of the campaign. The Boilermakers have won four of their last five games against Ohio State and are riding a five-game home winning streak. They already went on the road and beat the Buckeyes once this season, as the Buckeyes do not have enough length to deal with Edey. I expect Purdue to get back on track with an emphatic win against a disastrous Ohio State squad.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Arizona bested the Buffs, 82-72, in the semifinals of the P-12 tourney last season – as they bring a sterling 16-2 ATS ledger into this affair when they sport a sub .570 win percentage on the season. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are coming off a decisive 88-62 revenge win over Utah on Thursday with archrival ASU up next, and Zona is just 6-16 ATS at home before facing the Sun Devils. Consider that Colorado is 9-1 ATS when seeking revenge from a conference tourney loss the previous season, including 7-0 ATS when the Buffaloes sport a sub .769 win percentage, as well as 6-0 ATS when facing .700 or greater opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The Dawgs are just 1-7 SU away under first-year coach Mike White, including 0-4 SUATS the last four by an average losing margin of more than 22 PPG. Uh oh. Then there’s how Bama responded after a previous loss to Oklahoma, absolutely destroying a decent Vanderbilt squad in a 101-44 rout. The fact of the matter is Alabama is loaded, currently the No. 3 team in the land in Defensive Field Goal Percentage – the stat every college head coach would give his eye teeth for – and will be looking to get even for losing to Georgia in Athens last year as 14.5-point chalk. The Bulldogs enter off a revenge win over LSU, going 0-3 SUATS after taking on the Tigers by an average losing score of 96-69. We don’t want any of that and neither should you, especially when the Crimson Tide stands 3-0 SUATS at home off a SU favorite loss with a win percentage of .830 or greater, by an average wipeout of 91-58. 

Rating: 2 Units

Virginia Tech is another team that started the season strong only to see things come apart as the calendar flipped to 2023. The Hokies have gone just 4-10 in their last 14 games after opening the year 11-1, putting their chances at earning an at-large bid in March Madness in serious jeopardy. Pitt has defied expectations all season long, which is how they find themselves holding a share of the ACC lead this late in the season. The Panthers have played solid team basketball and they are above average on both ends of the floor. Pitt has an array of offensive weapons to rely on and a deep rotation. The Panthers aren’t intimidated playing in Blacksburg after already winning in Chapel Hill and battling Duke to the wire at Cameron Indoor. In addition, they are 7-2 as the visiting team straight up and 9-0 ATS this season. Pitt makes it seven straight wins as they earn a tough road win here.

Rating: 2 Units

Appalachian State’s basketball team has finally found some traction, winning two of its last three to improve to 8-7 in conference play. That’s good enough for a tie with ODU in the league race, as the Monarchs dropped a 76-67 decision at James Madison on Thursday to slip to 8-7. Old Dominion also suffered a 14-point home loss to these Mountaineers a month ago, and we love winning teams taking points in payback roles, especially those who are 11-1 SUATS in games when coming off a loss, including 9-1 SUATS this season. Even better, the hill-dwellers are just 6-13 ATS as home chalk against avenging foes under head coach Dustin Kerns, including 1-8 ATS in games in which the Apps own a sub .570 win percentage. ASU is also coming off a revenge victory on Thursday against Texas State, and the Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS the last six at home after facing the Bobcats.

Rating: 3 Units

The Wildcats are my bet to cover the spread in Saturday's matchup with Iowa State. KSU is better than it has played recently and will make a statement against a ranked ISU team at a decisive point of the season. The Wildcats didn't win straight-up but did cover in the first matchup with the Cyclones. At home, they will turn the tide with a solid offensive performance, delivering the knockout blow to Iowa State's conference championship aspirations. The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS at home and 6-1 ATS versus ranked opponents this season, while the Cyclones are just 3-5 ATS on the road. KSU is not an elite offensive team, but when you factor in their top 25 defense and home-court advantage, they're the team to side with on Saturday.

Rating: 2 Units

It's a tight spread, so I'm taking San José State to win and cover. For starters, a home team hasn't lost in this series since February 2018. Second, New Mexico is in a tailspin right now, as their four-game losing streak has been a product of shoddy defense. Since beating San José State, New Mexico is allowing 81.3 points per game and is 1-6-0 ATS. In their last seven, the Spartans are 5-2-0 ATS, with all five wins ATS coming by at least 10.5 points. New Mexico's defense can't stop anyone right now, and on the road against a team playing well, that should cost them dearly. I like San José State in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Flyers have won four of their last five games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they shoot the ball well, making 47 percent of their shots. They rebound the ball well and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Ramblers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Ramblers aren’t very good defensively and they don’t play much better at home, giving up more than 71 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Flyers in this game. The Ramblers have lost four of their last six games and five of their last seven home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 72 points per game. They’ve struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Flyers and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Flyers, who averaged more than six steals per game in their last three games. The Flyers have played well defensively and they’re just as good on the road, holding opponents under 65 points per game, and will keep Loyola-Chicago’s offense in check. Go with Dayton to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

I think I would be backing Kent State in this matchup regardless of the way these teams played earlier this week, but those outcomes only make me feel even better about the Golden Flashes in this contest. They are coming off one of the best offensive showings of the season, while Eastern Michigan looked lifeless in its blowout loss. The Eagles are one of the worst defensive teams in college basketball, so I am not worried about Kent State’s offense scoring enough points to cover this number. The Golden Flashes have one of the longest active home winning streaks in college basketball (19) and are 15-1 in their last 16 home games against Eastern Michigan.

Rating: 2 Units

Aggies are 7-1 ATS the last 8 games in this series, and 8-2 ATS versus Arky when A&M sports a .656 or fewer win percentage. They’re also 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS this campaign when playing with three-plus days of rest, including 5-0 ATS versus .600 or greater opposition. We’re not going to buck that when the ‘Backs are just 1-5 ATS away in SEC contests this season. Consider the Hogs are a mighty lean 7-47-5 ATS in outright conference losses as an underdog against avenging foes.

Rating: 2 Units

The Knicks have had this game circled ever since taking it on the chops in a 15-point loss to the Hawks earlier this season. With both teams in a virtual tie for the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, this contest is paramount for New York as far as tiebreakers go concerning playoff positioning. With it, the Knickerbockers bring a studly 24-14 SU and 28-10 ATS road record into the fray since March of last season. They are also 19-11-1 ATS of late in this series, while the Hawks tend to fl y low in games against foes seeking same-season revenge of more than 10 points, going 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS this campaign. The numbers all point to the points, and we’ll take whatever the books are offering up tonight. 

Rating: 2 Units

This is the final game for both of these teams before the all-star break, so it's a great matchup. I expect both teams to go all out to win this one to get some momentum going into the break. These are two teams that could very well meet deep in the playoffs later this season, so they will both be looking to send a message. Both teams matchup well, as they both are among the best defensive teams in the league. I have to go with the home team here as Cleveland has struggled on the road. Also, the Sixers are the second-best free throw-shooting team in the league while Cleveland is 19th and that could decide it. Take the Sixers here to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

I will be picking the Detroit Pistons on the road and I am going to take the points. The Boston Celtics could be without Jayson Tatum in this game and Brown and Smart are already listed as out. I just don't believe the Celtics are healthy enough to cover this spread. If they had their original starting five playing, I would hammer them. But, that isn't the case. Detroit also battled with the Raptors in their last game, as they came up just short. They will come into this game motivated and do everything they can to keep this game within the spread. These two teams also played a week back, as the Celtics won 111-99. They covered the spread, but it was extremely close. Now, they don't have three of their best players on the floor, as this will hurt Boston in this game. If Tatum ends up playing, I like the Celtics. But, he is currently listed as doubtful, so I am going to ride with the Detroit Pistons. They will show up on the road and keep this game within the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s tough to back the Spurs even though their losing streak will eventually come to an end. The Hornets just broke out of their slump and should win this game, too. With healthy LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward in the lineup, the Hornets have an excellent chance of exploiting the Spurs’ horrible defense. San Antonio is dead last in the league in opposing 3-point percentage (39.4%) and 29th in opposing 2-point percentage (57.2%).  The Hornets are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven outings, but they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their previous four encounters with San Antonio. On the other side, the Spurs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Alabama Crimson Tide have climbed to #1 in the AP Top 25 and remain undefeated in SEC play. The Tennessee Volunteers are stumbling, losing three out of their last four games and the previous two losses were especially weak, losing to Vanderbilt and Missouri. Alabama is the superior team in the offensive end. They are averaging 117.4 points per 100 possessions, marking them 13th in all of DI while Tennessee is posting 112.3 points per 100. The Crimson Tide has an elite defense similar to the Volunteers, but recently it has been the Crimson Tide defense that has looked better. Tennessee allowed Vanderbilt to shoot 40% from deep two games ago and Missouri was able to sink 52% of their field goals against the Vols on Saturday. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Warriors have been awful on the road this season and they are logging their second game of a back-to-back, not to mention their third game in four nights, in this one. Meanwhile, LA has been off since Friday, giving them three days of rest and a prime opportunity to get their trade acquisitions familiarized with the system. Hyland, Plumlee and Gordon are plugging in, adding some depth at key positions in an effort to bolster the second unit for LA. The Clippers are rested and you never know what Steve Kerr will do in relation to resting guys in a back-to-back situation. With Leonard likely to be on the floor for LA, give the edge to the hosts in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

New Mexico pulled off a one-point victory the last time these teams met as Mashburn had 20 points. Wyoming matched New Mexico in almost every area during that game, but the Lobos hit one more free throw than the Cowboys, making that the margin of victory. Wyoming has been in a terrible funk, dropping 14 of 16 games since winning two in a row (December 6-10). They have lost each of their last three games by at least 10 points and have lost seven in a row by at least eight.

Rating: 3 Units

Oklahoma State (16-9, 7-5 Big 12) gets a second chance at beating No. 5 Kansas (20-5, 8-4) on Tuesday night in Stillwater, Okla., after letting a 15-point halftime road lead get away on Dec. 31 and succumbing 69-67 to the then-No. 4 Jayhawks. A chance to force overtime came up short in the final seconds when Kansas' Kevin McCullar Jr. blocked a shot by Oklahoma State's Bryce Thompson. Speaking after Oklahoma State's 64-56 upset win at No. 11 Iowa State on Saturday, Cowboys guard Caleb Asberry reflected on the loss to Kansas. "We lost that game, a close one. We're ready to get that one back, too. Now we're in good contention to win this whole thing," Asberry said. Consider that the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Rating: 2 Units

Revenge will be on the minds of the Friars in this matchup as well as a chance to climb into the thick of the Big East regular season title race. In the first matchup, Providence shot just above 30% in the first half and fell behind by 14 points before rallying in the second half and falling short. At home this season, Providence is a perfect 13-0 on the season while Creighton is a game under .500 on the road. Providence will come into this game looking to bounce back from a poor shooting performance against St. John's on the road. In the Friars' last three home wins, they have held the opposition to 64 points or younger in each of the outings. Providence will dominate the glass and slow down the red hot Bluejays.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Bobcats are an intimidating 18-4 ATS in this series when both teams sport a .450 or greater win percentage. We also like the fact that Buffi e is staring dead ahead to same season revengers with Akron and Central Michigan, and the Bulls are just 3-8 ATS versus avenging foes before facing the Zips, including 0-3 SUATS away. Yes, Ohio head coach Jeff Boals knows his team has a ways to go if they want to match last year’s 25-win performance, but we love this play so much that we’ve declared it our Valentine’s Day Special! Putting the finishing touch on tonight’s box of chocolates is the Bobcats’ 18-6 SU and 16-8 ATS home in conference contests when looking to settle a score. Additionally, Ohio U is 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS at home in MAC games when seeking same-season loss revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

Bet on West Virginia to cover the spread Monday at Baylor. The Mountaineers, 20th overall in KenPom's rating database, are 18th in offensive efficiency and 40th in defensive efficiency this season. They're a solid team fighting to make the NCAA Tournament against a Baylor squad that's been tested a lot recently. The Bears will be in another closer game than they hoped to be in on Monday. With consecutive games against Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas looming, it's hard to blame Baylor for overlooking West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight-up loss and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these programs. Bet on WVU to at least cover in this Big 12 clash.

Rating: 2 Units

At first glance Chicago finds itself in the middle of a live division avenger sandwich, coming off a same season revenge contest with Cleveland with the same on deck against Indiana. That’s never good news when you’re hosting an avenging mad-as-hell non-division foe. Enter the sizzling hot Disney dolls who, after opening the season 5-19, were 18-14 SU and 23-9 ATS at press time. Finally, Chicago is 3-12 ATS at home in the middle of a division sandwich against non-division foes seeking same-season revenge or 6 or more points, including 1-10 ATS from game 32 out.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nets just traded away Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, as I don't see this new team having much success this regular season. Yes, the Nets have some great numbers, but they are now missing their two biggest contributors. The Knicks have also been great on the offensive end of the court, as I see them consistently scoring throughout this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Knicks have the sixth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are scoring the 15th most points per game. They will be able to attack the paint and score consistently throughout. Now, I also see the Nets struggling on the offensive end, as the Knicks are holding their opponents to the 12th least amount of points per game and the third-lowest shooting percentage from the floor. They will smother the Nets and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread.

Rating: 2 Units

The early betting action has been on Indiana, which is a movement that I agree with. The Pacers might be struggling right now, but they have only had Haliburton back for a few games. He completely changes the outlook of this team, which has created value on Indiana against a bad Utah team. The Jazz have not been good on the defensive end of the court, and they are facing a strong offense on Monday. They have only covered the spread once in their last five games, and they are 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games against Indiana.

Rating: 2 Units

The Grizzlies are only (3-7) in their last 10 games played and this Celtics team is extremely tough to beat when they are at home. Boston is currently (22-7) inside TD Garden, as I see them staying hot in this one. They have the advantage on the offensive end of the court, as they have the second-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are scoring the fourth most points per game. The Grizzlies won't get consistent stops, which will allow the Celtics to slowly pull away. Boston has also shown that they can turn it on defensively, as I see the Grizzlies having a hard time scoring against Robert Williams, who protects the paint. Boston has the fifth-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the sixth least amount of points per game. Memphis isn't a great shooting team and they won't be able to consistently score in the paint. This will really hurt them and keep them from covering this spread.

CBB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Ohio State has put in a dreadful 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS effort versus Big Ten foes. Yes, the Buckeyes ran out to a solid 10-3 start this campaign, but OSU enters Value City Arena today with a confusion-inducing 1-9 SUATS record in its last ten contests. As a result, Holtmann’s heroes are looking down with only one team – Minnesota – left between them and the bottom of the Big Ten cellar. Here comes more trouble, as the Spartans are 6-1 SUATS away in this series when looking to exact revenge from a loss the previous season, as well as 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS when seeking anytime revenge and playing on four or more days of rest, including 7-1 SUATS versus sub .740 foes. And with the Buckeyes losing four of their previous five home games, we expect to see a fully energized Izzo today. Finally, playing on Michigan State and head coach Tom Izzo with 3 or more days of rest from Game 20 out if they are seeking same-season revenge against a .700 or fewer conference opponent is 20-4 ATS since 1998.

Rating: 2 Units

The Temple Owls are excelling in conference play where they are 8-4. Temple is one of the better road squads, winning four of their last five AAC road games including the upset win against Houston. The only AAC road loss was a narrow one-point decision. The Memphis Tigers continue to have larger spreads but have only covered in one of their last four home games. The Owls' defense will keep them in this game. They are only conceding 100.5 points per 100 possessions compared to 97.4 per 100 by the Tigers. The Tigers are squandering too many points recently, surrendering at least 80 points in three of their last four games.

Rating: 2 Units

The boys from Provo darn near beat the Zags in their last meeting, falling by just a single point, 75-74, and that sets the table for this payback. BYU is 3-0 ATS when seeking same season revenge from a 1-point conference loss, and head coach Mark Pope owns a glittering 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS record when coming off a loss of more than 10 points (BYU was toppled, 92-80, at Pepperdine on Thursday as -7.5 chalk). The ATS pickings are a bit more slim for the Zags, who are a shocking 3-14 ATS as a favorite after having been a favorite the previous game, including 1-9 ATS when favored by a dozen or fewer points. They’re also just 7-13 ATS when coming off a SUATS win and facing a conference foe seeking same-season revenge. Yes, Gonzaga has already won 20 games this season, but a lackluster 9-15 point spread effort means Few and company are not to be trusted. Finally consider that the Zags are 0-6 ATS this season when coming off a SUATS win of 6 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

LSU, at 12-12 are still very much alive for a postseason tourney bid, and they’ve had good fortune in games where they own a .500 mark, going 7-2 SU and 5-2 ATS. Plus, there’s the small matter of revenge from Texas A&M’s 69-56 curtailing of the Tigers when they met just over a month ago in College Station. LSU is also catching the Aggies at just the right time in their schedule, with A&M just completing a season sweep over Auburn and owning a weak 2-4 SUATS record after facing Aubbie when taking on .600 or fewer foes during the regular season. Feeling better now? We also can’t ignore the possibility that the Aggies could be looking dead ahead to a same-season revenge affair with Arkansas, and they’re just 1-5 ATS as chalk before Hogs hookups. Enough with this bug business! Join us as LSU begins its road back from infamy tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is desperately hoping to kickstart a strong finish to the regular season after several inconsistent months, but I am not sold on the Heat right now. Their tendency to play down to their opponents nearly cost them Friday night’s game against the worst team in the NBA, and they have now covered the spread just eight times in their 19 home games. This is not going to be an easy matchup away from home on the second leg of a back-to-back, as Orlando continues to compete. The Magic have gone 17-11 against the spread at home and are coming off a win over the top team in the Western Conference.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Titans are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record, and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. While the Phoenix are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Rating: 2 Units

Before putting Brooklyn on your fade list remember, they are still the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race and they’ve performed admirably in conference play this season, winning 23 of 34 games outright, while going 7-4 ATS as underdogs. Complicating matters for the invading Sixers’ team is their skinny 2-9 SUATS mark in games without rest after facing the Knicks in games in which Philly was looking to avenge a same-season loss. With another same-season revenger on tap at home against the Rockets for the Sixers, we’re first in line here with Brooklyn looking to brush aside its spring-cleaning image today. Finally the Sixers are 23-36 SU and 21-38 ATS in the middle of a same-season revenge sandwich when facing foes with same-season revenge, including 0-8 ATS the last eight games.

Rating: 2 Units

Oklahoma State took the first meeting between these teams by only two points, but nailed nine three-point shots compared to only two made threes by the Cyclones. Iowa State is a different animal offensively at home, and I see things going their way in this revenge game on their home floor. The Cyclones average 75.6 ppg at home this season, which are 10 points more per game than what they have put up on the road, but Oklahoma State is averaging 67.7 ppg on the road, which are three points less per game in their home production. Iowa State is also knocking down 7.5 threes per game at home, compared to 6.7 threes per road game for Oklahoma State. The favorite has covered the number in nine of the last 12 games played in this rivalry, and I see Iowa State out shooting Oklahoma State in this, and winning by at least seven.

Rating: 2 Units

Given the stakes and pressure, I like the Cavaliers here. Virginia has the experience advantage, and this will be a difficult matchup for the young Blue Devils, who have five freshmen in their eight-man rotation. Duke is only 1-7 against the spread in their last eight road games and just 1-9 against the spread when facing a winning team. Virginia is 4-1-1 in their previous six games against winning teams and has covered in four straight home games.

Rating: 2 Units

Oklahoma stands 6-2 SUATS at home with same-season revenge in this series, including 6-0 ATS when not laying points, plus the Sooners are 7-1 ATS overall the last eight games when they enter with a dead even .500 win percentage. More bad news for Kansas after their 8-point win over Texas on Monday, as the ‘Hawks are a mediocre 6-12 ATS post-Longhorns when favored against avenging foes, including 0-5 ATS during the regular season when coming off a SUATS win. It’s also a fact that KU doesn’t automatically cash a ticket with every SU win, as they’re just 9-9 ATS this season in games they win on the scoreboard. Tack on Moser’s 10-4 SUATS success at home when his troops are coming off three losses, including 6-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points, and we see Oklahoma assuming the role of ‘windshield’ here today. 

Rating: 2 Units

Giannis Antetokounmpo was listed as probable for Thursday’s clash against the Lakers. He’s dealing with right knee soreness, and the Bucks could decide to rest their best player on the second night of a back-to-back set. Keep tracking the injury report, and if Giannis hit the sidelines, take the Clippers to cover. With both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George healthy, the Clippers have enough firepower to compete against the in-form Bucks, who’ll eventually have to slow down a bit. Just a week ago, Milwaukee barely outlasted LA 106-105 as a 4.5-point home fave, and the Clippers blew a huge 21-point lead.

Rating: 2 Units

Luka Doncic’s status is key, and if he remains on the sidelines, I’m going with the Kings to cover. Both Dallas and Sacramento struggle to defend at a high level, especially in the paint, and the Kings look like a more balanced offensive unit than the Mavericks, who lean on 3-point shooting too much. I’m expecting Sacramento to attack the rim all night long and torture the Mavs in the paint. The Kings are 6-2 ATS in their last eight encounters with the Mavericks, though they haven’t met in 2022-23. Sacramento has only lost two of its previous 12 contests against the Western Conference.

Rating: 2 Units

When it comes to a ‘game set-up’ they don’t get much better than tonight’s clash between the Grizzlies and the Timberwolves. For openers, Memphis returns home with a case of double same-season loss revenge on its mind, while catching the Wolves off a same season revenger with yet another one on deck. The Grizzlies are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS at home with a win percentage of .589 or better when seeking same-season double revenge, while the Timberwolves enter the den with a 9-19 SUATS record in this series, including 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS away. 

Rating: 2 Units

Even with a slightly depleted roster, including the loss of all-star Brown, the Celtics have a deeper and more talented team than the Hornets. Charlotte has struggled offensively this season and have lost five straight games, allowing an average of nearly 119 points per game. Boston will likely have both Williams and Horford back which will give the team a decided advantage on the glass against a Hornets team that just dealt away their leading rebounder. The Celtics are 3-0 against Charlotte this season and have defeated the Hornets by an average of 21 points per game. Look for that to continue in this spot.

Rating: 2 Units

The Musketeers, who have won 14 of their last 16 games, stand 13-3 ATS away in this series, including 3-0 ATS with revenge. That’s because Butler made the mistake of knocking Xavier out in the donkey round, 89-82, of last year’s Big East tourney, and the Bulldogs are just 2-5 ATS at home against LTKO opponents. Their 3-40-1 ATS mark in SU conference home losses seals the deal. The Musketeers will skewer these guys.

Rating: 2 Units

I’ve already said this before Milwaukee’s comfortable victory at Portland – I’m not going to stand in front of the red-hot Bucks. Milwaukee’s defense has been outstanding over the last few weeks, Giannis Antetokounmpo has dominated his opponents, while Khris Middleton is slowly but surely building up his form following an injury. Antetokounmpo has averaged 37.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 5.4 assists during the Bucks’ winning streak. The Lakers hope Anthony Davis will be able to slow Giannis down, but I’m still relying on Milwaukee’s defense to make the difference. The Bucks have allowed 110 or fewer points in four of their last seven outings, whereas the Lakers have yielded 121 or more in five of their previous six games overall. Los Angeles outlasted Milwaukee 133-129 in their first meeting of the season, but it was way back on December 2. 

Rating: 2 Units

Denver presents a nightmarish matchup for most teams but definitely the Orlando Magic. Orlando is banged up down low and now goes against the best big man in the NBA and one that can beat you inside and outside. While Orlando has defended the 3-ball well this season, they haven't run into a big that can pass as deftly as Jokic can out of the post. Jokic's passing is the primary reason Denver is ranked first in the NBA in 3pt shooting; he demands double teams and Denver spaces the floor well. The Nuggets had a hiccup against Minnesota two games ago but that won't happen against this Orlando team that lacks the fire power to run away from the Nuggets. Denver will run through Jokic and get open looks and take the fight out of the Magic in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Purdue is the type of team that I want to back at home, as it features a pair of freshman guards as two of its key players. The Boilermakers are generally going to play better in a comfortable environment. They put together one of their worst halves of the season in the first half at Indiana on Saturday, but they gave themselves some momentum coming into this matchup with a strong second half. Iowa has struggled away from home due to its reliance on its offense as well, going 1-4 in its last five road games. The Hawkeyes have only recorded one win in their last 12 games at Purdue, and they are going to struggle against the motivated Boilermakers.

Rating: 2 Units

Aztecs have gone 10-2 in their last 12. However, USU looks to have an easier bout on the weekend’s undercard, taking on cellar-dweller Colorado State. The Aztecs face a much sterner test as Boise State comes to town in a race for the MWC lead. Utah State has fashioned a nice 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS record at home this season, and the series host is riding a 6-0 ATS skein. The Aggies lost to SDSU by 10 points at home earlier this season and the Aztecs are guilty of a poor 4-19 SU and 7-15-1 ATS effort versus foes with same-season revenge. Bear in mind that San Diego State’s scrap with Boise last Friday was a triple-revenge game for the Aztecs, so they may not have much left in the tank tonight. Aggies throw another wrench in the race.

Rating: 2 Units

Statistically, this is a fairly evenly matched game, although St. Joe’s seems like the team that is a little better offensively. The clubs are allowing about the same number of points per game, so the question becomes whether Loyola-Chicago has enough of an advantage by playing this contest at home. The Ramblers have won their last two games at home, but that came after three straight home losses and they are 2-8 in the conference while the Hawks are 5-6. When these clubs met earlier this season, St. Joseph’s absolutely blew out Loyola-Chicago, winning by 31. That was just three weeks ago, and not a lot has changed for either team since then. No one should expect a 31-point victory here for the Hawks, but do not be surprised if they win by at least 15.

Rating: 3 Units

Penn State is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record and Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. The Badgers are also 1-9 ATS in their last ten games following an ATS loss and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall. These teams are in a similar position right now in terms of NCAA tourney seeding, as both are currently among the "Next Four Out" in ESPN's Bracketology prediction. That said, I view the Lions and Badgers as teams on different trajectories.

Rating: 2 Units

The Philadelphia 76ers are only 2-2 in their last four games after losing games to the Magic and Knicks within the last week. The Boston Celtics will be ready for this game as they look to build on their first-place lead against a 76ers squad that is only three games behind them. Boston has won three out of their last four games.  76ers are giving up an increase in points. They have squandered 119 or more points in five out of their last seven clashes. This is key as Boston is second in the NBA in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging 115.3 points per 100 possessions compared to 113.8 per 100 by Philly. Boston won the first meeting by nine points and I expect another convincing win. Also, Joel Embiid is questionable with a foot injury.

Rating: 2 Units

Neither team has been a good betting option over the past few weeks, but I feel much better about Indiana being undervalued coming into this game. The Pacers finally have a chance to be competitive again after getting their best player back on the court. He scored a career-high 43 points against Miami in December, and he has had time to rest coming into this matchup. The Pacers have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games in Miami, and the Heat are dealing with multiple key injuries right now. I expect this game to be a toss-up down the stretch, which provides plenty of value on Indiana as a 7-point underdog.

NBA Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Greg Popovich takes on a Toronto team that handed him the WORST LOSS of his career in a 143-100 ass whooping in San Antonio on November 2 earlier this season. If that’s not enough of a hair-raising beat down, then it doesn’t exist in Pops’ world. Making matters even worse for the Raptors is that they enter this game off a double-revenge affair of their own at Memphis with another payback on deck here against Utah on Friday. With the Spurs 11-9 SU and 12-8 ATS overall in this series, including 4-1 ATS when Toronto is coming off two days of rest. Finally playing on San Antonio head coach Greg Popovich from Game 55 out when he is seeking revenge from a same-season loss of more than 25 points when the Spurs own a sub .690 win percentage 11-0 since 1998.

Rating: 2 Units

Even though they'll be taking to the road in this game, there's no doubt that the Orange will cover the spread in this one and come away with the win. Their 2-3 zone is bound to force Florida State into settling for three-point shots, which has been a massive issue for this group. Adding to that is a lack of depth for the Seminoles in the frontcourt, which is certain to haunt them. For Syracuse, their offense is one of the more efficient ones in the ACC, and considering their defense doesn't expect to be an issue in this one, their experience will be crucial. Additionally, according to covers.com, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Pirates have gone 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS, and should add to those figures with a game against pitiful DePaul last weekend. In yet another case of biting the hand that feeds us, we’ll fade Creighton off what we think will be a big win over Villanova. Yes, we know we talked up the Bluejays last Saturday but one of the deciding factors was the game location: Creighton is a great home team but a lousy road team. Not to mention the Jays are just 14-22-1 ATS against foes seeking same-season revenge from a loss of 20-plus points, including 3-8 ATS versus .550 or greater foes. Meanwhile, the Pirates can boast a 5-0 SUATS record at home this season with a sub .700 win percentage. Finally consider that Seton Hall is 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in this series when the Blue Jays fly in with a sub .700 record, including 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS when the Hall boasts a winning record.

Rating: 3 Units

I have to look at Kansas State in this spot. The Wildcats are undefeated this season when listed as favorites and will be highly motivated to get revenge for that 14-point defeat at TCU in January. Also, the Wildcats want to avoid a three-game losing streak, so I’m backing them to beat TCU by four or more points. Both teams defend the 3-point line very well, and the Wildcats are a more dangerous 3-point shooting team than the Horned Frogs. This could be a decisive factor, as K-State plays at home, and TCU has gone 1-3 SU and ATS in its previous four showings on the road. The Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played on Tuesday. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Grizzlies have continued to slide in the wrong direction and they look like a completely different team without Morant or Adams on the floor. Morant is currently listed as questionable, but the Bulls are good enough defensively to keep this game within the spread. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Bulls have the 11th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are (6-4) in their last 10 and they've won two straight. They are playing good basketball right now and I just can't say that about the Grizzlies. They are currently (2-8) in their last 10 games played and they've lost three in a row. They've struggled on the offensive end of the court and I see that trend continuing in this one. The Bulls are also a better overall shooting team, as I see them being able to maneuver around this Memphis defense. They are scoring the 15th most points per game and they have the fifth-highest team shooting percentage. They will take advantage of their open looks and keep this game close.

Rating: 2 Units

This could be a very weird game. As you know, the trade deadliner is this week and the Nets have already seen their roster rocked with the trade of Kyrie Irving to Dallas. Now, we don't know if the haul they got back, Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith, will even be suited up for this game -- and even if they are, they probably won't play much or be effective given that they are joining a new team and had to travel. Plus, the Nets just played a game Monday night at home against the Clippers, so they could not only be short handed, but the players they have on the court will be running on fumes. This all points to a Phoenix win. Take the Suns here to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

The New York Knicks have not been strong on the road where they have dropped three out of their last four games including losses to the Hawks and Raptors. The Magic have been tough to beat on their home floor. They have won three of their last four home clashes highlighted by a win against the Celtics. Orlando is flourishing in the offensive end. They have collected 119 or more points in three out of their last four games including 119 points against the 76ers in that span. Also, the Knicks like to attempt many threes, averaging 34.9 three-point attempts per game and it will be a challenge to have success when considering the Magic rank 6th in the NBA in three-point defense. 

Rating: 2 Units

Toledo is 16-6, riding a 6-game win skein, while 16-6 Akron had ripped off 7 straight wins before a Friday game against Kent State, so something’s gotta give. The ATS archives suggest the Rockets are the right side. Not only do they own a 19-7 ATS edge in this series of late, but they’re also 5-2 ATS with LTKO revenge, including 3-0 ATS away. That’s a few light years better than the Zips’ 3-7-1 ATS mark versus foes seeking LTKO revenge, including 0-5-1 ATS when Akron sports a sub .777 win percentage. These two go at it again in two weeks, so pay close attention to this matchup. While grabbing the points, of course.