Rating: 2 Units

Oklahoma City has been one of the most profitable teams in the NBA in recent weeks, covering the spread in six of its last eight games. The Thunder have been a team that I have been backing for several years, as they are continuously underrated by the betting market. They have been dominant against Phoenix at home, winning 17 of the last 19 meetings. The Suns have been trending in the opposite direction, only covering once in their last five games. They are going to be a contender when Durant returns, but they are a team to fade right now.

Rating: 2 Units

Kentucky is coming off a strong outing against Providence, holding the Friars to 53 points and 36% field goal shooting. Kentucky cleaned up on the boards against Providence with 46 rebounds including 16 off the offensive glass, while holding Providence to 27 rebounds and only seven offensive boards. Kentucky is 33rd in the nation in offensive rebounds allowed at just 6.9 per game, which is not surprising as Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebewe is averaging 13.5 rebounds per game which is first in the nation. Kansas State allows an average of 8.6 offensive rebounds per game which is 226th. Kentucky has covered the spread in six of its last eight overall and in each of the last five when playing against a team that has a winning percentage above .600. 

Rating: 2 Units

Pittsburgh is allowing an average of just 50.0 points per game in its first two games of the NCAA tournament as the Panthers' defense has tightened. Pittsburgh held Iowa State to 23% shooting overall and 10% shooting from long range. Xavier is a strong shooting team, hitting 50% of its field goal attempts during a regular season, but against first-round opponent, Kennesaw State shot only 17% from behind the three-point line and cannot afford to shoot poorly against the Panthers. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 23 of its last 30 and in four of the last five against a team with a winning percentage above 600. Xavier struggled down the stretch to cover the spread, failing to cover the spread in four of its last five. In intangibles, Xavier must play without Zach Freemantle, who before being injured was the second-leading scorer and leading rebounder for the Musketeers. Freemantle was also one of the court leaders.

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland survived a slow start to get past West Virginia but an opening 10 minutes like they had Thursday here could put them in a hole that they would be unable to dig out of against the Crimson Tide. The Terrapins played some stout defense against West Virginia to get through but they were helped by getting the Mountaineers in foul trouble, opening up the interior for easy buckets. Alabama hung 96 on the board with their best player going scoreless while playing just 19 minutes. Granted, Maryland is better defensively than Texas A&M-Corpus Christi but the Crimson Tide have plenty of depth, as evidenced in Thursday’s win. It also helps that they are playing in their home state. Look for that depth to make the difference as Alabama prevails to advance to the Sweet 16.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is on track to finish in the top ten of the Eastern Conference, but to make another deep run in the NBA Playoffs, it will take more consistency down the stretch of the regular season. The Heat can finish strong with more performances like Wednesday's, which gives them something to build on. After taking down Cleveland, Utah, and Memphis in three of its past four, this appears to be the beginning of a more significant victory run for Miami. Chicago didn't play poorly on Wednesday but can't continue to lose winnable games if it hopes to make any noise in the playoffs. After dropping consecutive games to Phoenix and Indiana, they bounced back against Houston and Denver before falling at the buzzer to Sacramento. While I expect them to win as spread favorites on Friday versus Minnesota, I'm not as bullish on them winning SU or covering versus Miami with zero day's rest.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wizards aren't good enough defensively to consistently slow the Kings down, as they won't get enough stops to cover this spread. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Wizards only have the 20th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are surrendering the 14th most points per game. Sacramento is one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, as they are scoring the most points per game and they have the highest adjusted offensive rating. They will efficiently score throughout this game and cover this spread. Sacramento is also (8-2) in their last 10 games played, as they are playing great basketball right now. They are the hotter team and they will be ready for this matchup on the road. Now, Washington won't have the same offensive success, as they are only averaging the 21st most points per game and they've struggled to shoot from the outside. Sacramento will defend the paint and do everything they can to keep the Wizards off the scoreboard.

Rating: 2 Units

I can't turn away from a Penn State team that has thrived in close games down the stretch. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and have gone 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as the underdog. In addition, Penn State has won six of its last seven games against tournament teams and covered the spread in each game. Further, the veteran Penn State team is not easily rattled and performs well above average in neutral site games. Penn State is 9-1 ATS in its last ten neutral site games. I expect Pickett to protect the basketball and create opportunities for his teammates throughout the game. Texas, which likes to move quickly, will be forced to adjust to Penn State's methodical pace of play and I expect this game to be a one-possession contest heading into the final two minutes. With that in mind, points are critical and I will happily take the 5.5 on the board.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a bit in this contest depends on the health of Sasser and Shead. Sasser was an All-American selection but logging only 14 minutes while scoring five points in the first round was less than what the Cougars were hoping for against the Norse. The Cougars struggled to pull away against Northern Kentucky and one has to wonder if perhaps Sasser did more damage by attempting to play Thursday night. It’s safe to say that Auburn’s offensive production is better than Northern Kentucky’s and will test the Cougars’ defense more than the Norse did. The Tigers can hang on the glass and make things tough for Houston on the offensive end of the floor. Houston may win the game but it’s going to be a war if Sasser is limited or doesn’t play. Take the points and Auburn in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Rating: 2 Units

The Razorbacks benefitted from the inconsistent play of Illinois in round one, something that has been a trademark of the Illini all season. Kansas had some of those issues early in the season but the Jayhawks have been playing at an extremely high level since then. They played the toughest schedule in college basketball this season and have 14 victories over tournament teams to prove it. Keep in mind that Arkansas is just 5-11 vs. tournament teams this season. The return of McCullers has also strengthened the Jayhawks' depth and should help distribute the scoring better. Kansas has thrived this season when the scoring was spread out, as it was in the blowout win over Howard. The Jayhawks are 10-5 ATS in the last 15 games and I expect that number to improve against the Razorbacks.

Rating: 2 Units

Duke is playing its best basketball right now, as its group of freshmen is pulling it together on both ends of the floor. On the other side, I am not very high on Tennessee, as the injury of Zakai Zeigler has clearly weakened the Vols. Zeigler was a high-level perimeter defender, and the Tennessee offense didn't have enough depth to compensate for his absence. I like Duke by at least six points.

Rating: 2 Units

New York has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA since the beginning of February, winning and covering the spread in 11 of its last 14 games The Knicks have also covered the spread in six of their last seven home games, despite struggling at Madison Square Garden earlier in the year. They are facing a Denver team that has been trending in the opposite direction, winning once in its last five games and covering once in its last six games. New York could get an additional boost if Brunson returns, so I will back the team with momentum in this matchup.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s safe to say these are not your Bobby Knight Hoosiers. They’ve advanced past the Sweet 16 just once since 1994. Yet they are 8-2 SUATS when dancing off a loss, including 7-0 ATS against greater than .666 opponents. They also own a few big notches in their belt, having swept both Purdue and Illinois while picking up a win at No. 3 seed Xavier. The WOM (Well-Oiled Machine) comes to their aid here as well, noting that No. 4 seeds are 50-8 SU in the opening round when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 19-6 ATS when favored by 8 or fewer points. Meanwhile, MAC teams are just 6-19 outight in the NCAA Tournament, and 0-3 SUATS as dogs of fewer than 6 points against the Big Ten in this event. In addition, the Flashes are frauds when taking on Big Ten foes, going just 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS overall.

Rating: 2 Units

If it’s possible for a 30-win team to fl y under the radar, the Owls are doing just that. So disrespected is FAU, they were actually a 2.5-point dog in the title game of the CUSA tourney when they rolled past UAB, 78-56. They bring a glossy 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS mark into this game when coming of a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games. In addition, FAU is also 11-1 ATS in games when both teams arrive off pointspread wins. Enter the American Athletic Conference tourney champion Tigers, off an upset win over a banged up Houston squad. They’ll likely pay the price today, though, as the WOM notes that NCAA tourney fi rst round chalk is just 12-25-1 ATS since 2000 when coming off a SU win as an underdog in a conference title game. And it doesn’t help Elvis fans knowing Memphis is only 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS against .828 or greater opponents in this tournament. With it, look for the Owls to fl y to 5-0 ATS in their last fi ve meetings against AAC competition tonight. 

Rating: 2 Units

There are some negatives surrounding both of these teams right now, but I feel much better about backing a Memphis team that is motivated to get back on track. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight meetings between these teams, including six in a row in San Antonio. They had won three straight games prior to their loss against Miami, so they have been playing decent basketball without Morant on the court. Meanwhile, San Antonio has only covered the spread five times in its last 20 games. The Spurs have not only been losing games, but they have not been competitive in most of them.

Tournament Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Miami, the ACC regular season and Drake, the Missouri Valley conference tournament. A trio of 5thyear senior guards leads the Bulldogs’ attack: Tucker Devries, Roman Penn, and Garrett Sturtz returned with their extra year of eligibility after having led Drake to 95-wins the previous four years. The terrific threesome averaged 42.1 PPG, 16.5 RPG, and 8.3 APG. They match up well with a Miami unit that also emphasizes guard play. The Canes bring a wobbly 1-5 ATS record as a favorite in this tournament into this fray as well as a 0-3 ATS mark in its last three Missouri Valley contests. Making matters worse, Miami mentor Jim Larranaga is just 1-5 ATS as a single digit favorite in this tournament. Meanwhile, Drake closed the season on a 13-1 winning run. In addition, they were 4-1 SUATS against .750 or greater opponents this campaign. However, we saved the best for last, where Drake head coach Darian DeVries is 10-2 SUATS “between the 4’s” in games on a neutral court

Rating: 2 Units

I don't expect the Sixers to take a night off at this point, with the team so close to the second spot in the Eastern Conference standings. The two teams have split the previous two meetings this season but haven't squared off since December. Both teams have gone through changes since then and the Sixers are now arguably the hottest team in the NBA. Charlotte will not have any answers for Embiid and he should dominate this matchup. Additionally, I expect the Sixers to exploit Charlotte's mediocre perimeter defense with the league's best 3pt shooting. Charlotte is positioning for the most ping-pong balls in the draft lottery while the Sixers are trying to earn home-court advantage in the playoffs.

Rating: 2 Units

Certain games have the look and feel of “upset” written all over them, and this is one. The Wildcats enter fresh off an opening round loss to St. Peter’s last season and are just two years removed from a 9-win season. Wooden Award winner Oscar Tshiebwe leads the nation in rebounding (13.1 RPG) while averaging 16.4 PPG. As talented as they are, or can be, the fact of the matter is Kentucky is 0-7 ATS in its last seven non-SEC battles. Providence bolted out of the gate at 14-3 before closing out 7-8. However, Ed Cooley’s clan made it to the Sweet 16 last season as they cashed all three tickets in the tournament. Cooley is a long-term 104-74-4 ATS as a dog, including 19-7 ATS of late.

Rating: 2 Units

For the Boilermakers, it’s the first time as a No. 1 seed since 1996. They’ll enter the Big Dance this year seeking their fi rst Final Four appearance since 1980. The Boilermakers have advanced past the Sweet 16 just once in six previous trips as a top-2 seed. They have, however, made the Sweet 16 or better in four of the past five tournaments, but have been eliminated by No. 15 and 13 seeds the past two years. The good new is they are 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in NCAA tourney openers under Matt Painter, which should comfortably get them underway against either of the two slop buckets advancing for the “First Four” round. 

Tournament Play of the Day

There is a large contingent of Vegas wise guys who like this Creighton team, and it’s understandable.After all, the Blue Jays were ranked No. 9 in the AP preseason poll after winning 23 games the previous season despite being beaten up with injuries. The truth of the matter is unless they win two games in this event and make it to the Sweet 16, they will fall short of last year’s effort. That’s the plight we see happening, and with it, we’re not about to lay points with a team under this sort of scrutiny. For openers, Creighton enters with a crummy 7-13 SU and 5-14- 1 ATS record in this tournament since the turn of the century, including 0-4 ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite. On the fl ip side, NC State enters with a sparking 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS record this season in games when coming off a loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games. In addition, the Pack is 4-1 SUATS in this tourney when entering off a loss when they sport a greater than .666 win percentage. We’re backing the team playing the better ball as playing on any .666 or greater lined Division-1 team in Round One of the NCAA tournament coming off a loss of 24 or more points if they are facing a sub .740 lined Division-1 foe is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1990

Rating: 2 Units

Like Kansas State above, no team has ever won a national championship after losing its fi rst game in the conference tournament. That’s bad news for the Bears, whose season was laced with ups and downs. A 10-2 start was met with a 3-game losing skid. Then a 10-1 winning run was met with a pair of losses, only to close the season out with another pair of defeats. The question is can Scott Drew’s capable band of Bears fi nd another winning streak to close out the season? A cause for concern was that Baylor was outrebounded, 43-15, in its conference tourney loss to Iowa State. If that’s not addressed they could be going into early hibernation. Yes, they’re on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run in this tournament, but all of those games came as a No. 1 seed. On the other side of the coin, the Gauchos have turned into an ATM machine, cashing 19 of their final 27 games, while riding a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS streak into this contest. While they’ve lost all four of their NCAA appearances, they managed to ring the register in those games, going 3-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Micah Shrewsberry will try to keep the momentum going against what has to be a down-in-the-dumps bunch of Aggies, crushed by Alabama in the SEC title game. A plus for the Lions is their 10-5 SU and 14-0-1 ATS record in their last fifteen games on neutral courts. Sure, the Aggies may be 12-2 ATS as a favorite (9-0 ATS the last nine) since the calendar turned on January 1, but the Lions carry an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS ledger in their last ten games into this contest. They are also 13-5 ATS against .666 or greater opponents this season, including six ATS covers in a row when taking points. This will be Texas A&M’s first trip to The Dance since 2018 but we don’t look for the celebration to go much further. Both teams bring plenty to the table but being major dog lovers, we can’t remain neutral here, not with the Nits on a ‘neutral assault’. 

Rating: 2 Units

Houston led the country in scoring margin (+16.0) and they play a suffocating style of defense. They’re also 6-0 ATS in games when coming off a double-digit loss. The feeling here is coach Sampson and company will likely be hell-bent on making a statement in this game today. If it weren’t for the Cougars’ worst-in-class 1-6 ATS mark this season in games versus fellow NCAA Tournament teams, we’d consider snapping the rubber band. Nonetheless, the Norse closed like a racehorse, going 7-1 SUATS down the stretch to capture the Horizon League title. They returned 4 starters from last year’s 20-win unit but were only 2-8 ATS in games outside the Horizon. They are 0-2 all-time in this event, as well as 1-24 ATS in their last 25 outright losses. That might be all you need to know today. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucks have won 10 straight games over the Pacers, including 2-0 this season. In that time, Milwaukee is also 8-2 ATS vs. the Pacers. Milwaukee's defense should be able to stifle the Pacers' offense which is just 25th in the league in field goal shooting. On the season, the Bucks are 28-6 at home and 46-10 as favorites. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings with the Bucks and has won just four of its last 17 road games. The Bucks have not shown a proclivity to slow down over the last two months and I don't expect a letdown game here upon their return home from the trip.

Rating: 2 Units

I love a contrarian bet, and this one certainly fits the bill. The Nuggets are still the top team in the Western Conference, but they have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and are riding a four-game losing streak overall. They are facing a Detroit team that no one wants to bet on right now, but the Pistons picked up an outright win earlier this week and will be getting a boost when Ivey from a three-game absence. The Pistons have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games against Denver, including an outright win earlier this season, and they have value as double-digit underdogs on Thursday.

Rating: 3 Units

This is the fourth time in school history that Duke isn’t a top-4 seed, and In the two previous instances, it lost in the first round (2007 as a No. 6 vs. VCU, 1996 as a No. 8 vs. Eastern Michigan). It could happen again here against an Oral Roberts’ squad that returned their top 6 scorers, and 7 of the top 8 from last year’s 19-win unit this season. The Golden Eagles reached the Sweet 16 in 2021, and their current 18-game win streak is the longest in this tournament. Can’t turn down another of the four 30-win teams in this tournament, especially when we get a look at the fact that ACC tourney champions are just 10-20-1 ATS in opening round games in the NCAA Tournament, including 0-7 ATS as a No. 3 or worse seed.

Rating: 2 Units

The Big Ten and the SEC lead the way with most teams in this tournament (8 each) and this is one of the reasons why. Yes, we understand the Illini are 8-1 ATS in games when both teams are coming off ATS losses, but they are also just 5-15 outright and 7-13 ATS against No. 8 or better seeds in this tournament, including 1-9 outright in games in which Illinois sports a sub .777 win percentage. It’s hard backing a team like this, especially a school that hasn’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2005. As for the Razorbacks, they must overcome the recent ugliness of 8-seeds in opening round games being on a 5-11 SUATS losing run since 2018, including 2-10 SUATS against 9-seeds coming off a SUATS loss. But it’s our belief that if anyone can, the Musselman can. The head Hog just missed the cut list of our March Madness Top 16 coaches as he is 8-5 SU and 5-8 ATS overall, but he’s gone a hog wild 5-1 SUATS in this tourney against foes that are not arriving off consecutive SUATS wins. Don’t forget, the Razorbacks were the No. 2 preseason pick in the SEC this season, so the talent is there. Not thrilled with the fact that both teams closed out 1-3 SU in their most recent four games, but we’ve got to pick a side, so we’ll be makin’ bacon with the better squad today.

Rating: 2 Units

Zona is now 61-10 under Lloyd as his troops lost to Houston in the Sweet 16 in this tournament last season – his only postseason loss with the Wildcats (8-1). Lloyd’s 22-2 SU and 17-7 ATS mark in games against foes coming off a win of more than 8 points also figures to serve them well here today. However, Pac-12 conference champions are only 2-6-1 ATS in the first round of the NCAA tournament when facing foes coming off a win. As for Princeton, the Ivy Leaguers sport a 10-5 ATS mark in this tourney since 2010, including 7-1 ATS when coming off a win of 7-plus points. The Tigers are also 6-2 ATS as a double-digit dog under head coach Mitch Henderson versus winning opponents who are not undefeated, in addition to going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog this season. Remember, all four No. 2 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 just twice in the past 25 tournaments and given the Wildcats’ wimpy 2-11-1 ATS ledger in its last 14 dances, we’ll be on the take today.

Rating: 2 Units

Considering the Cougars' only NCAA tournament win came way back in 1997, the odds seem stacked against a deep run here. But Charleston has been a tough out in this tournament, as all six games in school history have been decided by 10 or fewer points, despite the Cougars being a 12-seed or worse in four of those five appearances. There are also plenty of hurdles facing the Aztecs in this year’s event. For openers, the Mountain West have never had a team advance beyond the Sweet 16, as opposed to 17 other conferences that have had teams reach the Elite Eight since the MWC was formed in 1999-2000. And it gets uglier as, per ESPN, the MWC is 1-8 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in fi rst round games since 2010. History has not been kind to the Aztecs either, as they’ve gone one-and done in each of the last three Dances while dropping four straight games. They’d also better polish up their 3-point defense for this one – almost half of the Cougars’ shot attempts are from beyond the arc. Add the fact that Charleston fans should descend en masse to the not-so-distant venue in Orlando, and we smell an upset right out of the box.

Rating: 2 Units

A big concern for Utah State: Per ESPN – Mountain West teams seeded 10th or worse are 1-23 all time, with 20 straight losses since the only win in 2002. That’s certainly not good news for the Aggies. Especially as they fi nd themselves dressing up as a favorite against the 7th-seeded Tigers. Head coach Ryan Odom, who coached No 16 seed UMBC to its magical upset over top-seeded Virginia in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, guided the Aggies to the NIT last year and the NCAA Tourney this season in his fi rst two years with Utah State. They play a rugged brand of defense but it’s going to take a major effort to move a mountain and overcome the MWC’s putrid history in this tourney. Yes, Missouri will need to overcome a 0-6 SUATS mark in their last six games on the dance floor but they’ll do so knowing they are 10-5 SUATS in this tournament in games in which they sport the better record. It’s showtime for the Tigers.

Rating: 2 Units

Furman is also one of four “double champions” (teams who won both their regular season and postseason conference titles) who are taking points from foes that won neither. We love fading these often-times disappointed favorites, especially with double-confident champions who are ecstatic to be dancing. Hey, the Paladins won their 15 conference games by an average margin of 16 points, and four players take the fl oor here averaging double-digits. Virginia can claim the second-best defense in the tourney, but they’ll need to apply the screws if they don’t wish to get screwed in this lid-lifter

Rating: 2 Units

The 8-seeds are on a 5-11 SUATS slide since 2018, including 2-10 SUATS against 9-seeds coming off a SUATS loss. That’s not good news for the Terps, who’ve won only a single game this month over bottom feeding Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament – and the Gophers are a big cut below what Maryland will see in West Virginia. Mountaineers head coach Bob Huggins was at his best this campaign, getting an invite to the dance after being picked to finish ninth in the Big 12 following last year’s 16-17 losing effort. And while Huggy failed to make our Sweet 16 cut on this year’s top NCAA tourney coaches list, the fact of the matter is his troops are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in first round games when coming off a loss, including 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS versus sub .740 opposition. Finally, ESPN shared this nugget: At large teams that finished four games under .500 in conference play are 5-0 in the first round. Last year, 11th-seeded Iowa State became the first such team to reach the Sweet 16. This year West Virginia (7-11 in the Big 12) is the only at-large team in this year's fi eld to fi nish four games under .500 in conference play

Rating: 2 Units

First Four matchups involving a pair of Division-1 teams fi nds that squads coming off an outright loss as a favorite are 5-13 SU and 7-11 ATS, including 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS against foes who were underdogs of 3 or more points in their last contest. That sets the table for the Sun Devils who were 17-6 SU against sub .690 opponents this season, as well as 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS in games outside the Pac-12. And it certainly doesn’t hurt knowing the pitchforks bring an 8-1-1 ATS mark in this contest against Mountain West opposition. Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack closed the season on a 0-3 SUATS losing skein which is not a good omen for Nevada considering teams entering the Big Dance on a 0-3 SUATS losing skein are just 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS since 2004, including 0-5 SUATS as an underdog. We seal the deal noting that MWC teams are riding a 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS skein against Pac-12 foes in this show since 2001. 

Rating: 2 Units

This is one of those games where the road team probably doesn't want to be there and the home team just wants to beat an ACC squad. Cincinnati's big advantage is on the boards where Virginia Tech ranks 209th in the nation in rebounding margin a -0.1. Virginia Tech is also bad on the road, shooting just 31.8% from long range, while Cincy is holding teams to 31.2% from long range at home. The Bearcats also put up 82.7 points per game on 47% shooting at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Boston will be highly motivated to bounce back in this game after their terrible loss to the Rockets, as they will dominate on both ends of the court in this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Celtics have the third-lowest adjusted offensive rating and the fourth-lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will get the job done on both ends of the court and easily cover the spread in this game. Minnesota has continued to struggle on the offensive end of the court, as they won't be able to efficiently score in this one. The Celtics are holding their opponents to the ninth least amount of points per game and the sixth-lowest shooting percentage. They will contest shots near the rim and on the perimeter and keep the Timberwolves from scoring enough points to cover this spread. Boston is still one of the top teams in the NBA in my opinion and they will show that in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland was clearly doing some load management on Tuesday night to be fully prepared for this critical matchup. The Cavaliers were able to give Mitchell a day off, so their leading scorer and top defender should be fresh on Wednesday. Allen’s status is still up in the air at the time of writing, but his return would provide a big boost as well. Philadelphia looked terrible in its first trip to Cleveland this season, getting blown out in a 113-85 final. The Cavaliers top-ranked defense held Embiid to just 19 points in one of his worst outings of the campaign. They need this game worse than Philadelphia as far as the standings go, and I expect them to come up with a big win.

Rating: 2 Units

The strange thing here is that FDU is playing tonight despite the fact the Knights actually lost to league champion Merrimack in the Northeast Conference championship game. That's because Merrimack is a Division-1 newbie who made the jump from Division II to Division I in 2019, but is serving the last year of a four-year prohibition from NCAA tournament play following its transition. Editor's note: It's such an archaic rule that needs to be abolished. Nevertheless, the Knights went 1-3 SUATS against 'lined' opponents this season (beat St. Joseph's), and are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in this tourney, with their last appearance resulting in an 87-49 loss to top-seeded Gonzaga in 2019. On the other side of the court, 14-20 Texas Southern enters as the only team in this year's Dance with a losing record, yet own the Southwestern Athletic Conference tourney to make its second consecutive trip to this tournament (beat A&M CC in a "First Four" game last year before bowing out, 83-56, to Kansas thereafter. The Tigers did take down Arizona State, 67-66, as a 12-point home dog this season. While they have the experience, FDU is playing with house-money. And we're not betting against the house.

Rating: 2 Units

This is the clash between a couple of defensive-minded teams. Both schools struggle to shoot the ball from deep and are far away from an elite level when it comes to offensive efficiency. Seton Hall makes just 5.8 triples per game (326th in the country) on a 32.8 percentage clip (259th), while Colorado hits 6.5 threes (282nd) on a 31.9 percentage clip (304th). Hereof, I’m expecting to see a tight battle, so give me the underdogs to cover a 4.5-point spread. Both Pirates and Buffaloes have been pretty inconsistent lately, and it’s hard to trust either side. Seton Hall is 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS in its last eight games overall, though the Pirates have covered the spread in five straight outings on the road. On the other side, Colorado is 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS in its past eight contests overall and 3-4 ATS in its previous seven showings at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Panthers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs a team with a winning record.  While the Bulldogs are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. 

Rating: 2 Units

I have been fading this overrated Wisconsin team throughout the season, and I see no reason to stop here in a matchup against a team that will be more motivated. The Badgers had NCAA Tournament aspirations this season, and they were expected to be a threat to make the second weekend. Instead, they flopped in conference play and only covered the spread five times in their last 20 games. Bradley enters this matchup riding a six-game road winning streak and having won 12 of its last 13 games. The Braves were regular-season champs and will be motivated to prove that was not a fluke against a major-conference team.

Rating: 2 Units

I am going to ride with the OKC Thunder ML in this game, as they are the home team and I don't believe the Nets are as good as their numbers look. Without Durant and Irving, they aren't the same team and I believe the Thunder are good enough to consistently stop them. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Thunder have the ninth-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 13th-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will smother the Nets and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still listed as questionable and we probably won't know if he is playing until right before the game, but I see the Thunder winning regardless of him being on the floor. But, if he does play. Then, I would hammer the Thunder as fast as I could. OKC is also scoring the fourth most points per game and they can score anywhere on the floor. Brooklyn will struggle to slow them down and the Thunder will pick up another win at home.

Rating: 2 Units

I am going to ride with the Lakers on the road, as I like the additions that they made at the trade deadline and they will be highly motivated to bounce back after losing their last game to the Knicks. I don't trust the New Orleans Pelicans right now, either. They are currently dealing with injuries, as Ingram is questionable for this game and Zion is still out. This has hurt them all season, and I see that trend continuing in this one. I don't believe the Pelicans will be able to efficiently score against the Lakers, as they have the 14th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 10th-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will make it tough for the Pels and New Orleans will slowly fall behind in this game. I also trust this Los Angeles offense, as they are averaging the eighth most points per game and they have the 11th-highest team shooting percentage. They will continue to attack the basket throughout this game and slowly pull away. The Lakers are playing desperately and the Pelicans have continued to slide in the wrong direction.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Toledo is the hungrier team, with a chip on its shoulder after losing in the MAC Tournament championship. The Rockets were victorious in seventeen straight prior to that game and will be out to prove they can play with a traditional Midwestern power. Toledo's offense is elite and will prove it in Ann Arbor, putting the Wolverines in a tough spot. Will the Wolverines defend their pride and home court in an otherwise unimportant game for a program rich in history? We shall see.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games, and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs a team with a winning % above .600.  Additionally, the Islanders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday Games.

Rating: 2 Units

Golden State’s home-road splits have been one of the major storylines throughout this NBA season, and it is not something I am going to fade on Monday night. The Warriors are just 7-26 on the road this year, but they are 28-7 in their 35 home games. They have covered the spread at a tremendous 23-11-1 clip in their games at the Chase Center, and Phoenix has a losing record on the road. Durant’s absence and Curry’s return make this an even easier selection, especially since the Warriors have covered in seven straight home games. Phoenix has only covered once in its last five trips to Golden State.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics won't have any issues rolling along to a big win on Monday night against one of the NBA's worst teams. Even though they'll be hitting the road, that didn't seem to bother them in the first game of their road trip, while Houston has one of the worst home-court advantages in the league. The Rockets' lone advantage this season has been their rebounding but with Sengun questionable, even that expects to be thrown out the window. On the other side, the Celtics' core is getting healthier and healthier and finally regaining the form that saw them dominate the first half of the season. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Celtics are 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a losing straight-up record, while Houston is 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

Rating: 2 Units

The Indiana Pacers are battling for the last play-in spot in the conference and every game is huge at this point. The stumbling Pistons have nothing to play for and are dealing with one of the most depleted lineups in the league. They are playing without Cade Cunningham, and Bojan Bogdanovic while Alec Burks, Jaden Ivey, and Marvin Bagley III are all questionable. The Pacers are playing strong basketball on the road, winning four of their last five road bouts including Saturday's win in Detroit. They covered in four of the five games in that span. Detroit has lost 11 straight games and four of their last five defeats have all been by six or more points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Not only does New York have to play on back-to-back nights, but the Knicks have been terrible defensively of late, allowing 120.2 points per game over their last five. That includes allowing at least 118 in four of their last five games. The Knicks have been very good offensively of late, but face a tough Clippers team on Saturday and then have to come back to take on the Lakers. That is a gauntlet and should decrease their offensive production by at least six points. Plus, the Lakers are playing better defense, really clamping down which should drop the N.Y. offense even more. 

Rating: 2 Units

I am going to ride with the Philadelphia 76ers and I am going to lay the points at home. They are currently (25-10) inside the Wells Fargo Center this season, as I see them staying hot in this game. They have the advantage on both ends of the court, as they will slowly pull away throughout this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the 76ers have the fourth-highest adjusted offensive rating and the ninth-lowest defensive rating. They will get the job done on both ends of the court and dominate in this game. The Wizards are only (4-6) in their last 10 and they've continued to struggle on the defensive end of the court. Washington won't get enough stops to cover the spread, as they only have the 20th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are allowing the 16th most points per game. They've struggled to defend on the perimeter, as Philadelphia will get hot from the outside and pull away throughout this game. Philadelphia is scoring the 14th most points per game and they have the highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. They will score throughout and cover the spread at home

Rating: 2 Units

Purdue has been dominating the Big Ten all season and they won't stop now. Penn State has shot the ball well in the tournament, but they have not faced a defense like Purdue's. Edey takes away any easy opportunity at the hoop, and Braden Smith is an elite defender who will give Pickett problems on the perimeter. Penn State is also a guard heavy team, they often play four or five guards, which is a terrible matchup when going against Edey. Ohio State played a similar guard heavy lineup, and Edey gave them 32 points and 14 rebounds in an easy win. Edey will do the same here, Penn State does not have an interior defender capable of slowing down Edey inside. The big man dominated all season, and will end the Big Ten season with one more big performance.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cougars have won 13 straight games and they haven’t lost a game on the road this season. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 73 points per game away from home. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 78 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Tigers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Tigers aren’t very good defensively, giving up more than 74 points per game on the road, and will have a hard time slowing down the Cougars in this game. The Tigers have won four of their last five games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 75 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Cougars and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Cougars, who average more than eight steals per game. The Cougars have played well defensively and held their last three opponents under 60 points per game, so expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Houston to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

VCU has now won seven straight games and are playing at a much higher level than the team that played Dayton over a month ago. One player in particular, Adrian Baldwin Jr, has certainly stepped up his game in that time. Baldwin averaged just 10 points in the two games with Dayton this season but has been much more efficient since then. Additionally, the Rams are 6-1 ATS in this latest run as well. Both teams are excellent on the defensive end, particularly Dayton, but the Rams hold a significant edge in turnover margin. Dayton ranked just 12th in the Atlantic Ten in turnover margin this season while VCU was first in the conference in turnover margin. Additionally, VCU forced Dayton into 18 turnovers in each of the first two matchups. I expect a better offensive effort from VCU in the rubber match and a continued edge in turnovers.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a bit of how this plays out could well be centered on Bona’s status. If he can’t go, the Bruins will have to rely on Mac Etienne and Kenneth Nwuba. That is a major drop not only in production, but in athleticism, as neither one of those guys brings what Bona does to the floor. Potentially having your top big man limited or missing is bad regardless but when you’re dealing with a team with the twin towers duo of Tubelis and Ballo, it puts a lot of pressure on Jaquez Jr. and Campbell to carry a bigger share of the load. Arizona wants to make up for their loss last week at Pauley Pavilion in the regular season finale. The Wildcats have their team ready to go and they are facing a Bruins team that might be worried about avoiding any further injuries. Look for Arizona to claw out a tight win here with both teams preparing for where they’ll end up for the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Rating: 2 Units

When looking at adjusted offensive ratings, there is a huge difference as Toledo is ninth in college basketball with a 119.5 offensive rating while Kent State is currently 135th in the sport with a 107.4 offensive rating. A huge reason why is the difference in the capabilities to knock down threes as the Rockets are second in all of the United States shooting 40.7 percent from beyond the arc as a program while the Golden Flashes are all the way down at 236th in the nation with a 32.9 percentage as a program from distance. All in all, go with the Toledo Rockets to cover the spread. 

Rating: 2 Units

I like the Cavaliers on the road, as they just took down this same Heat team on Wednesday night and they are the better offensive team in this matchup. They will find different ways to score, as they have the ninth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they have the sixth-highest team shooting percentage. They will efficiently score against this Heat defense and slowly pull away throughout this game. Miami will have a difficult time keeping up with the Cavs, as they have continued to struggle on the offensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, they only have the 26th-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are averaging the least amount of points per game. The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the NBA and they will be ready for this game on the road. They will clamp down on the Heat and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. The Cavaliers are currently holding their opponents to the least amount of points per game and they have the lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will dominate on both ends of the court and cover the spread in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

Even though they'll be playing for the second-straight night, the Nets were able to rest their starters on Thursday, which will serve them well in covering the spread and springing the upset in this one. They have the wing talent to make a difference in this one and while the frontcourt has been a disadvantage to them on most nights, this is a matchup where that can be minimized. For the Timberwolves, a lack of solid home-court advantage has been a challenge for them to overcome as well. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days of rest.

Rating: 2 Units

The history book shows Portland 21-12 SU and 18-13-2 ATS in this series when Philly sports a .426 or greater win percentage, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season loss. Meanwhile, the Sixers enter off a same season revenge contest of their own with the Timberwolves toting a 4-12 ATS ledger as home chalk after meetings with Minnesota while having a same-season double revenger on deck with Washington. Connect the dots and put the Trail Blazers on your playlist tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The teams split two meetings this season with each team winning at home. Miami walloped Duke at home in their previous contest, prevailing by 22 points. Duke has won seven straight games as they have turned things around after a slow start on the offensive end of the floor. The Blue Devils are going to be tested defensively by an explosive Miami offensive unit. Miami does have plenty of experience to build around and they are facing a Duke team that is rather lacking in that department. The Blue Devils have played well of late but Miami has the ability to outgun teams almost at will. Give the Hurricanes the slight advantage as they punch their ticket to the title game.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona State was anything but good on the offensive end of the floor against Oregon State. When you struggle to score against a team like the Beavers, who were anything but a good team this season, it doesn’t bode well for your future chances. USC limited the Sun Devils to 65 and 69 points in the two meetings this season as they shot a combined 11 of 50 (22%) from beyond the arc in those contests. The Trojans just beat Arizona State five days ago and it’s hard to see how the Sun Devils can turn things around considering how poorly they played against the Beavers. Let’s be honest: they were fortunate to win that game as Oregon State missed several layups that easily could have changed the outcome. USC is out to make a run in this tournament and Arizona State is merely a stepping stone. Take the Trojans to beat the Sun Devils for the third time this season to advance to the semifinals.

Rating: 2 Units

Vanderbilt is a strange team to handicap in that the team doesn’t thrive in any one particular area. However, the Commodores not only finished the season with three-straight wins but they went 7-1 ATS in that time period, with the only loss coming against these LSU Tigers. Vanderbilt certainly played poorly, particularly on the defensive end, in the loss to LSU. I am confident that they will be ready to bounce back in this game, especially with so much on the line in terms of post-season play. Two wins in the SEC Tournament will certainly put Vanderbilt in the sightline of the committee. Meanwhile, LSU likely played its best game on Wednesday night. I can’t discount the fact that the Tigers won just two games all season in the SEC in handicapping this game. Winning two all year and then winning two straight here seems far-fetched. Lean towards a Vanderbilt team that won eight of its last nine games in a top-tier SEC Conference.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucks have some of the best depth in the NBA and even with their injuries, adding that depth to their homecourt advantage, will be too much for the Nets to overcome. Brooklyn continues their road trip and with fatigue setting in, they don't have the legs to keep up with the Bucks in this one. The biggest difference between these two sides is their rebounding ability and with the Bucks having that advantage on the glass on both ends, their ability to dominate in second-chance scoring will push them forward toward covering the spread in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played off of one day of rest, while they are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee.

Rating: 4 Units

The Dubs have won five out of the last six games against the Grizzlies overall, but they are 5-0 at home during that stretch. On the road, Memphis has beaten the Warriors in four of the last games straight up, and the Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in the last six games against the Warriors at FedEx Forum. I understand Morant will not be playing, but Memphis is 4-1 straight up in home games without him this season. Both of these teams have been so drastically different at home vs on the road this season. I have to take the home dog here.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams come into this matchup after poor finishes to the season. Auburn won the regular season battle comfortably, dominating the glass and winning the battle of points off of turnovers. Auburn should once again dominate the glass and get frequent second-chance opportunities against the Razorbacks. Auburn is 20-5 on the season as a favorite while Arkansas has yet to win a game this season as an underdog. The Tigers certainly want to improve their NCAA Tournament position and will do so in this game thanks to their defense and rebounding.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mountaineers have enjoyed some recent success but won't dethrone the conference champs in the tourney. West Virginia has an explosive offense with perimeter shooters and has proven to be a good rebounding team. It won't matter, though, against a rested Kansas squad with March Madness experience. The Jayhawks will hold their own in the rebounding department and make plays on the defensive side, causing turnovers — they average 8.7 steals per game, 16th-most in the NCAA — leading to scoring runs. In the most recent matchup with KU, WVU had 21 turnovers. Simply put, the Jayhawks value the basketball (26th in assist-per-turnover ratio) more than the Mountaineers (190th).

Rating: 2 Units

After staging a spirited comeback attempt against the New Jersey Devils on Sunday, the Arizona Coyotes hope to carry that vibe into today's home game against the St. Louis Blues. The Coyotes rallied from a 4-2 deficit to tie the game and force overtime with the Devils at Mullett Arena. The Blues are 1-5-2 in their last eight. These teams split their first two games this season. The Coyotes won 5-0 at home on Jan. 26 on Karel Vejmelka's 33-save shutout. Consider that the Blues are 8-21 in their last 29 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Rating: 2 Units

Michigan has the better big man, and the better supporting cast in this matchup. This game weighs heavily on the tournament hopes for both teams. In a matchup of two of the best bigs in the country, Hunter Dickinson has the edge over Clifford Omoruyi in the post. Dickinson has 2 inches and 20 pounds on Omoruyi, and is the better scorer. Dickinson averages 18.2 PPG, while Omoruyi averages 13.5. They play different styles, which will benefit the Wolverines. Dickinson can step out and hit outside shots, which will force Omoruyi out from under the basket and open up lanes for the other Michigan players. Omoruyi scores the majority of his points around the basket, but that won't be easy against the bigger Dickinson. Michigan also has Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin scoring on the perimeter, and Rutgers' Caleb McConnell cant guard both of them at the same time. Michigan is the better team, and will advance in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s getting nitty-gritty time for the Thunder who find themselves 1.5 games back of the 10th and final playoff seed in the Western Conference at press time. The good news is they will carry a double revenge chip on their shoulders into this contest from a pair of setbacks they suffered at the hands of the Warriors in January and February earlier this year. And they’ll do so on a home court where they stood 18-12 SUATS this season at press time. Better yet, the big boom is 4-1-1 ATS this season when seeking same season revenge from a 20-plus point same-season defeat while the Dubs are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS away on Tuesdays. With Goldie arriving off a revenge tussle with the Lakers, there's only one way to look here.

Rating: 2 Units

Milwaukee finally lost a game over the weekend, but the Bucks immediately got back on track. They also held a big lead in their loss to the 76ers, so they could easily be riding an 18-game winning streak right now. I am not ready to fade them at this point, as they have covered the spread at an 8-2-2 clip in their last 12 games. They have also covered in four of their last five games against Orlando, cruising to a 22-point win as 8-point favorites when these teams met last week. I don’t see any reason why the Magic will be better prepared to cover the spread this time around, especially with Milwaukee facing a tight battle for the No. 1 seed.

Rating: 2 Units

Notre Dame has struggled all season long and they have dropped five straight meetings with Virginia Tech entering this contest. None of that instills confidence in their chances here. For that matter, their short rotation is problematic against a Hokies team that has pretty decent depth to work with and who are a good scoring unit. Should Starling miss this game as he has the last three, Notre Dame’s already thin group takes another hit and that makes for too deep a hole for them to dig out of here. The Fighting Irish aren’t good enough defensively to overcome missing one of their better offensive players. Virginia Tech brings the curtain down on the Brey era by prevailing here to advance to the second round.

Consider that the Dons are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win, 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  While the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

Rating: 2 Units

Denver is on fire, winning 11 of their last 14 contests, but they are not just winning games – they are dominating them. The last three opponents have been defeated by at least 10 points and they have won each of their last six games at home by at least nine points. The Nuggets are now 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Toronto has lost two of their last three games on the road and it took overtime to win in Washington. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road when facing a team with a winning percentage of greater than 60% at home. Denver is tough to beat already, posting the top shooting percentage in the NBA while Toronto is one of the worst teams in terms of shutting opponents down. Not a good match-up for the Raptors at all.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gaels will win straight-up and cover as spread favorites, forcing BYU into enough turnovers to separate on the scoreboard. Saint Mary's slow-tempo approach (359th in pace of play) will put pressure on the Cougars to maximize their offensive opportunities, which will be problematic for a team that averages over 14 turnovers per game, one of the highest turnover ratios in the NCAA. The Cougars will not be able to rely on offensive rebounds, either, as Saint Mary's boasts a +7.1 rebounding margin. I bet the Gaels will win with an efficient shooting performance (52.8 eFG%, 37.2 3PT%) and stout defense (5th in defensive efficiency).

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland has been one of the league’s best home teams this season, going 27-7 in its 34 outings. The Cavaliers have also covered the spread at a 21-11-2 clip in those games, so they have been an excellent betting option at home. This is another profitable spot to back them, as Boston is on the second leg of a back-to-back and is going to lack energy against the top defense in the NBA. Cleveland is also coming off a strong performance against Detroit and will be motivated to get revenge for its loss to Boston last week. The Celtics are also dealing with several key injuries, giving me another reason to back Cleveland today.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Norse are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning record, 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  While the Penguins are 2-8 in their last 10 neutral site games. 

Rating: 2 Units

Milwaukee is going to be an angry team after blowing a 19-point lead on Saturday and even if they are tired, they have so much depth, that they can overcome a bad game from a starter. When you can bring a Kris Middleton or Jon Ingles off the bench, you are living pretty well. Washington had a great chance to come into this one off a three-game winning streak, but at 10th in the Eastern Conference, they are what they are-a very average team. Having that kind of depth is crucial when you are playing the back end of a back-to-back and the Wiz could be missing 2-3 key players.

Rating: 2 Units

New York has already beaten Boston during their eight-game winning streak, winning 109-94 on February 27. That was the second straight time that they had beaten the Celtics, earning an overtime victory in Boston on January 26. While the Celtics may be higher up in the standings, New York is not the least bit intimidated by them and has been playing better basketball than Boston over the last 10 days. Right now, it is the way that New York is defeating opponents that is quite impressive. During the winning streak, they have beaten five of the eight opponents by at least 15 points, with Boston being one of those victories. The Celtics suddenly find themselves battling through a lot of close contests and look like they will be clipped in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

The good news for the Windy City crew is its 8-2 ATS record in this series when seeking same season double revenge exact, including 4-0 ATS at home as well as 5-0 ATS with revenge from a most recent loss of 10 or fewer points. The recent swoon by the Bulls (2-7 SUATS previous nine games entering March) helps to make the price right today, and with it we’ll be there. Remember, the Pacers took a 5-17 SU and 9-13 ATS ledger into the month of March itself, so the Naptown arsonists arrive with a combustible warning of their own. Finally, consider that  Indiana is 11-25-1 ATS away versus foes seeking same-season double revenge, including 0-4 ATS the last four games.

Rating: 3 Units

South Florida will cover the spread on Sunday, playing a more complete game than it did in the first meeting with Wichita State. The Bulls are coming off a rousing Senior Night victory and the Shockers are hoping to rebound from deflating second-half letdown at the hands of number-one Houston. WSU shot over 60 percent in that game and still lost, turning the ball over 18 times. It won't have similar efficiency from the field against the Bulls and could struggle in the rebounding department if Tchewa is available to suit up.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and  1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. While the Bearcats are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NBA Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Sixers edged the Bucks, 110-102, in Philly in their most recent get-together in November, setting the table for this payback, as Milwaukee has reeled off six wins in a row in same-season revengers entering the fray. In addition, John Deere has gone 18-3 SU and 16-5 ATS when laying fewer than 8 points as a host this season. We’re not jumping in front of that, especially with added support that Milwaukee is 23-8 SU and 20-11 ATS in this series, including 7-1 SUATS with same-season revenge, as well as 5-0 SUATS when the Bucks own a winning record.

NCAAB Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Cats are playing their best ball of the season at the right time. Even so, 16-14 Villanova will likely need to win out thru the Big East tourney in order to capture an invite into the NCAA Tournament for the 17th time in the last 18 Dances. Meanwhile, UConn took the opposite approach to the season, opening the campaign on a 14-0 winning run before going just 9-7 heading into March. Still, with 23 wins at press time, the Huskies all but have their NCAA tourney ticket punched. A trip to the archives tells us Villanova is 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in this series, as well as 9-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in Last Home Games. Then there’s the program’s intimidating history: winning the Big East regular season championship 7 of the last 9 years, and the Big East conference tournament 5 of the last 8 years. Yes, they miss Jay Wright, but these are still the players he recruited and they won’t back down now. With a 10-3 SU effort at home this season and revenge for a 74-66 loss to UConn in late December, we seal the deal for Villanova with the fact that UConn is 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS against foes playing their final home game of the season, including 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS when the Huskies sport a .586 or greater win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

Texas Tech has been streaky this season as they started the year 10-2, dropped eight in a row, then won six of eight before losing their last two games. The Red Raiders aren’t quite as stingy defensively as they’ve been in recent seasons but they are at home here. Texas Tech is 11-5 at home while Oklahoma State has posted just a 4-7 mark as the visiting team on the year. The Cowboys have slumped of late with five straight losses and they have only two road wins in conference play. Oklahoma State doesn’t have great offensive firepower and that proves to be their undoing as the Red Raiders earn a home win to close the regular season on a positive note.

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee has done most of its damage this campaign at Knoxville, going 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS as opposed to 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS as visitors. Yes, the Rocky Top 5 rank No. 2 in overall defensive Field Goal Percentage, but Auburn counters as the No. 12 team in the land in the same category. Let’s also not forget that the Tigers took the Vols to the wire a month ago at Thompson Boling Arena before dropping a 46-43 thriller. As for today’s revenger, War Eagle is 7-2 ATS in this series, including 3-0 SUATS at home. In addition, Coach Pearl stands 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in Last Home Games versus .700 or fewer foes, including 5-1 ATS between the 10’s (favored 10 or less or dog of 10 or less points). Look, Auburn was ranked No. 15 in the AP preseason poll and definitely underachieved this season, but the talent is still there. If you’re still not sold, we suggest you check out that Auburn is 6-0 ATS in Last Home Games when .400 or greater if facing a .640 or greater opponent.

Rating: 3 Units

Arkansas is coming off back-to-back losses to ranked opponents, while Kentucky took a tough 68-66 defeat against Vanderbilt on Wednesday. After their regular-season finale, the Southeastern Conference tournament awaits, and both teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Calipari kept praising his players for the fight they showed against the Commodores. The Wildcats (20-10, 11-6 SEC) trailed by 11 in the second half and rallied to take a two-point lead with 1:10 left on a jumper by Oscar Tshiebwe'. Vanderbilt's Jordan Wright scored the next two baskets, and the Wildcats' Antonio Reeves missed a 3-point attempt at the buzzer.  Consider that the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

NCAAB Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Huggins led the Wildcats in 2006 and 2007, and he’s currently 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with same-season revenge of 4 or more points at WVU against KSU (Wildcats beat West Virginia on New Year’s Eve, 82-76). It’s been an inconsistent season for WVU, though expectations were low after only 1 starter returned from the previous campaign’s 16-17 squad. But even though the Hillbillies have won just twice in their last six games, those two wins came in their last three outings. Owners of a 17-13 record at press time, the Huggies are sitting firmly on the NCAA bubble and needs this like kielbasa needs sauerkraut. Not so for the Wildcats, who are sitting pretty after knocking off Oklahoma to improve to 23-7 with 11 wins in Big 12 play. This is not a good role for the visitors, though, as they’re 0-3 SUATS against foes in Last Home Games playing with same-season revenge of 6 or fewer points. The Manhattan Cats are also just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS away in Big 12 Last Road Games in regular season finales. Finally, Huggy’s team is 12-4 SU in WVU Coliseum this season, which fits right in with the fact that WVU head coach Bob Huggins is 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS in Last Home Games when playing with three or more 

days of rest, including 7-0 SUATS with West Virginia

Rating: 3 Units

The Ohio State Buckeyes recently had a nine-game losing streak which they finally ended last week. It’s been a disastrous season for a squad that has plenty of skill. They have not been a reliable team, covering in only two of their last ten bouts. The Michigan State Spartans have only lost two Big Ten home games all season. The Buckeyes' defense has been the culprit in many losses. They are squandering 102.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking them 113th while the Spartans are only allowing 96.3 points per 100. MSU has averaged a remarkable 88 points in their last three games. The Spartans completely dominated the Buckeyes last month on the road, winning by 20 points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Over is 3-0-1 in Lobos last 4 games following a straight up win., 4-0 in Lobos last 4 Friday games, and 4-0-1 in Lobos last 5 road games. While the Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in Rams last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 9-1 in Rams last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 10-2-1 in Rams last 13 games following a ATS loss.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nuggets have won six of their last seven games and six straight home games. They have played well offensively, especially at home where they are scoring more than 121 points per game while making over 52 percent of their shots. They do a great job finding the open man and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass in their last three games, grabbing 11 offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. The Grizzlies have struggled defensively on the road this season, giving up more than 115 points per game, and will have a hard time slowing down the Nuggets in this game. The Grizzlies have won three straight games but they’ve lost eight of their last nine road games. They have played well offensively on the road, scoring more than 113 points per game. They usually rebound the ball well, but their rebounding dropped off in their last three games, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against the Nuggets. They’re also careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Nuggets, who average eight steals per game at home. The Nuggets have done a good job defensively at home, holding opponents under 110 points per game, so expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. 

Rating: 2 Units

I am going to ride with the Utah Jazz on the road, as I see them covering this spread. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Jazz have the sixth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are scoring the fifth most points per game. The Thunder won't be able to consistently slow them down, as they will slowly fall behind in this game. OKC has also lost five games in a row and they are (3-7) in their last 1o. They aren't playing great right now and they won't be able to slow down the Jazz. The Thunder could also be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in this game, as this would be a massive loss. He controls the offense and is one of their best overall players. Without him on the court, I don't see the Thunder competing in this game. OKC is also allowing the 20th most points per game and they have only held their opponents to the 19th-lowest shooting percentage. The Jazz will find open shots consistently throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage on the road. They are the better offensive team and the Thunder is dealing with too many injuries at the moment.

Rating: 2 Units

I will be riding with the Suns on the road, as I see them having the advantage on the offensive end of the court. Kevin Durant is starting for the Suns now, as I see this giving them a massive boost to finish this regular season. They are also getting healthy, as I don't see the Bulls being able to slow down this Phoenix offense. The Bulls are (3-7) in their last 10 games played, as they haven't been hot as of late. They will continue to struggle in this game, as Ayton, Booker, Durant, and Paul will efficiently score throughout. Chicago will also struggle to efficiently score against this Sun's defense. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Suns have the sixth-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the fourth least amount of points per game. The Bulls have struggled on the offensive end of the court, as they won't score enough points to cover this spread. Chicago only has the 24th-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are averaging the 20th most points per game. They will struggle to score against this Suns team and they will slowly fall behind.

Rating: 2 Units

Consider that the Over is 6-0 in Nets last 6 games following a ATS loss, 4-0 in Nets last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points, and 5-1-1 in Nets last 7 road games. While the Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games, 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Friday games, and 6-2 in Celtics last 8 overall.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a major contrast in styles as Dayton plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball, ranking No. 345 in tempo. They are also one of the best defensive teams in the land, allowing just 60.7 points per game, which is 12th best in the country. St. Louis on the  other hand averages close to 76 points per game and plays at the 71st fastest pace in the country, fueled by Collins, who leads the nation with 10.2 assists per game. When these two met a few weeks ago, Dayton controlled the tempo in an easy win. This time around, I like St. Louis to control the pace at home. Take St. Louis here to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are playing pretty well and neither is an offensive juggernaut. Washington has covered four straight in this series. Washington State barely won the first game at home as Brooks shot just 4-of-16 from the field. The Huskies shoot it much better at home, where they make 44.3% of their shots and allow just 40.5% from the field. On the other hand, Washington State is shooting under 40% (38.6%) from the field on the road. Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Two Pac-12 bottom feeders meet up Thursday night when Stanford battles Oregon State at Corvallis, Ore. The Cardinal (12-17, 6-12 Pac-12) are in 10th place in the 12-team conference while the Beavers (10-19, 4-14) are 11th. Stanford is hoping to build momentum after Sunday's solid 81-69 home victory over Washington. The victory was just the second in the past seven games for the Cardinal.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams come into this game with something to play for. The Boilermakers are still fighting for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament and would obviously like to enter the Big Ten Tournament with some momentum rather than a two-game losing streak. Wisconsin is clinging to tournament hopes and a loss here would be near fatal for those chances. In the last ten meetings between the two teams, Purdue has gone 6-4. Wisconsin has an overall record of 9-5 at home this season but the Badgers are just 4-10 ATS in that time. Purdue should dominate the paint in this matchup with the league's #1 rebounding team pitted against the 14th-ranked rebounding of Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a dismal 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games. Look for Purdue to exert its will over Wisconsin and get back on track.