Rating: 2 Units

Orlando had lost 7 of 8 before playing Houston on Sunday. In that game the Rockets improved their record to 15 and 42 and when a team loses to a club that has only won 15 games, things become a bit clearer about the talent level and the concept of competing. Despite playing the second of a back-to-back game, Atlanta beat the Magic last month and Clint Capela didn’t play. This is a much more important game for Atlanta. They are currently in the middle of the Eastern standings but still only 2 games removed from being in the precarious 7th seed. Orlando has only Detroit beat in the East. Atlanta is a well-balanced team and they defend the perimeter. The Hawks just beat Indy on Sunday behind 24 points and 25 rebounds from Capela.

Rating: 2 Units

Memphis lost to the Nuggets in March despite the fact they shot it at 50% from beyond the arc. Neither the Nuggets nor the Grizzlies that night were aggressive going to the rim and Jonas Valanciunas was outplayed by Nikola Jokic. On top of that, Denver won that close game although the starting Denver guards were just 3 for 22 from the floor. When Jamal Murray went down for Denver, Jokic was obviously disappointed but he was also realistic as he said he had been an underdog all his life and would adjust. Denver is 2 and 0 since Murray got injured. Since April 6, Murray had missed 6 game for Denver and the Nuggets won 5 of them.

Rating: 2 Units

OKC had only won one game since March 24 before facing Toronto in Tampa on Sunday. In that game Chris Boucher and Gary Trent Jr. carried the day and OKC tasted defeat once again. Washington had won three in a row before hosting the Pistons on Saturday. In that contest the Pistons didn’t win one quarter. Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook were both efficient, shooting a combined 20 for 39 from the floor. Robin Lopez and Ish Smith were solid off the bench and the Wizards forced 18 turnovers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Suns scored 85 points in defeat at home against the Spurs the other night,
their lowest offensive output of the season. What went down must come up. We’d noted in the forecast that it was their first game against San Antonio this season and that last season’s three games in the series had been decided by 4 points apiece. For this, we have a similar situation except it’s seemingly favorable for Phoenix, who is now the quality road underdog (5-1 SU and ATS in the role) that has had the home favorite’s number. The Suns have won four of the last five outright against the Bucks, including when Phoenix wasn’t playing anywhere as near as well as they have been over the course of this season.

NBA Total of the Day

‘We couldn’t get stops when we needed to’ has been a common statement made by an Indiana player in recent post-game laments. They can score and they’re not shy about putting up shots — an NBA-high 97.2 of them in their last five games, and both the Pacers and Spurs are in the top five in shot attempts per game for the season. Indiana played yesterday. Therefore, from the get-go, the rested and ready Spurs should come out with their younger legs and attack the Pacers’ relatively weak interior defense, an overrated part of Indiana’s game with Myles Turner’s blocks totals impressing a lot of people who don’t see the big picture. At the end of regulation in San Antonio, the teams were at 126-126. That’s 252 points, 21.5 more points than tonight’s total.

Rating: 3 Units

The road trip wall gets steeper for the Warriors here. After Steve Kerr’s highly anticipated cupcake thefts at Oklahoma City and Cleveland, they had to try to sneak in and out of Boston with a W and couldn’t quite get there. Fourth game into the trip, against a slightly better opponent, whose defensive FG% of  45.3% is #4 in the league, while the Warriors are last in offensive rebounding percentage, suggests that there will be too many one-and-dones for the road dog to overcome after it gets torched inside by Embiid and/or Simmons. Neither Embiid nor Curry played when the 76ers won 108-98 at the Warriors last month so consider it a wash if/when both play

Rating: 2 Units

The Blazers rested Damian Lillard at San Antonio but came back from a 16-point second half deficit to win. They beat the Hornets 123-111 in Portland when Charlotte played without Hayward, Zeller and Graham. Charlotte is pretty much in worse shape now, because all three missed the last game, as did P.J. Washington. When the starting lineup for a home team is Jalen McDaniels, Caleb Martin, Mikal Bridges, Vernon Carey, Jr. and Terry Rozier, and the other side has plenty of scorers on it even if Lillard doesn’t play, then there is probably only one thing to do: play the other side.

Rating: 3 Units

Atlanta was on a minor roll before facing the Bucks on Thursday. In that game the Hawks got crushed off the glass and they watched as 7 Milwaukee players got to double figures. This is a big game for both teams. Atlanta is clinging to a tie for 4th in the East but they are only 3 games ahead of the current 9th seed, Indy. The Pacers have already beaten the Hawks in Georgia this season and Indy comes into this game 17 and 13 on the road. Myles Turner has been dealing with an ankle but he is getting closer to suiting up. His replacement, Goga Bitadza, had 13 points in 12 minutes in the Pacers loss to Utah on Friday.

Rating: 2 Units

Kelly Oubre is iffy here with a sore right wrist. He has been averaging 15 a game for the Warriors this season. Both of these teams have been playing well. Golden State has won 4 in a row but only one of the wins could be considered a quality victory. The quality win was against Denver, who lost Jamal Murray for the season late in the game. The three wins during this span came against teams that were at least 15 games below .500. Boston is seeking their fourth win in a row. During this span they won a pair of close games and also blew out Denver by 18 points. When the Celts beat the Warriors early in the season they controlled the glass and after losing the first quarter by 11 points, Boston swept the other 3 stanzas.

Rating; 4 Units

The Bulls lost the most recent meeting with the Cavs 103-94 on March 24. Without Zach Lavine on the floor for the Bulls, the Cavaliers, whose 111.1 ppg allowed ranks #11 in scoring defense, have an easier time of it on that end of the floor. Last night, Chicago overcompensated in attempting to protect the paint and were deficient about getting out on Memphis’ three-point shooters. Live and learn, practice makes perfect, and these games are often practices. In Cleveland, Chicago faces an opponent that takes and makes the fewest three-pointers per game in the NBA. You don’t even have to get out after them much on the perimeter. They’re not going there often and when they do, their 33.8% make rate is #29 in a 30-team league.

Rating: 2 Units

Second of back-to-backs, third game in four days for the Jazz, whose leading scorer Donovan Mitchell was helped off the floor during yesterday’s win/no-cover vs. Indiana with an ankle sprain. But if Mitchell is out, then the Lakers will still be spotting the Jazz one 20+ ppg scorer with the Lebron/Lebrow double-injury dose. L.A. is just a 6-9 SU team since Lebron made it two guys down, and the Jazz have proven that they can win and cover games without Mitchell during the regular season. Also, the Lakers are a mere 3-11 SU as the underdog, losing the games they are supposed to lose -- usually by more than the spread

Rating: 2 Units

Both sides are in similar positions in their respective conferences and it’s a relatively big game for both since neither team wants to fall out of the 6th seed. Dallas had lost 3 of 4 before meeting the Grizzlies in Memphis on Wednesday, where Luca Doncic hit an unbelievable leaning three-pointer at the buzzer for the win. The Knicks were riding on a nice wave going into the Wednesday game at New Orleans, and now they have won four straight, five of seven. The two losses in this span were each by a mere 2 points. When Dallas beat New York early in the year Julius Randle was only 5 for 20 from the floor yet the Knicks were only down 3 points going into the last quarter. Randle is a 46% shooter from the field this season, one of only 6 players in the league averaging
at least 20 points and at least 10 rebounds. In the win Wednesday, Julius had 32 and 8 boards and the Knicks shot it at 52% from downtown. During the season, New York is tied for 6th in the league in offensive three-point field-goal percentage.

Rating: 3 Units

This seems like a pretty important game for the Spurs. They just played five straight on the road. They’re a lousy 4-11 SU in their last 15 games and lead New Orleans by only 2 games for the #10 spot in the West, the last post-season slot. They go right back out on the road tomorrow night to play at Phoenix (uh-oh!), then to Indiana Monday. They were done in at Toronto the other night when the Raptors played a physical inside game with a handful of new players, tough to prep for or to respond against. The Blazers? They know the Blazers and the Blazers don’t change things up much. The Spurs won 125-104 in San Antonio on Jan. 18, pulling away in a 38-22 fourth quarter despite using mostly non-starters for those final 12 minutes.

Rating: 2 Units

‘What’s up, Doc?,’ ask most of the Clippers players of the 76ers’ head coach, their former head coach, whose current team didn’t have Joel Embiid when it lost 122-112 to the Clippers out West. Plenty of people will figure that by plugging in Embi-id and switching floors that Doc and the 76ers will get their revenge. Maybe they will. But maybe they won’t. The 76ers shot 50.6% overall, got to the free throw line 33 times, still lost the prior meeting by 10 points. Tobias Harris has an achy knee and Embiid tweaked his against the Nets

Rating: 4 Units

After resting the three players mentioned in today’s Winning Points in the automatic home win against Oklahoma City on Wednesday night, the Jazz will show up with close to a full boat in front of their home fans, and not deprive them of points two games in a row. Utah scored only 22 points in the first quarter, 18 points in the fourth vs. OKC. Unacceptable. A repeat of that would give the Pacers license to steal one tonight. Neither side shot well (41.3% for Utah, 39.8% for Indiana) when the Jazz won 103-95 on the road in January. The Pacers have added Caris LeVert to the offensive arsenal since then. Myles Turner has missed the last few games for them which helps unclog the interior for them on offense, but hurts on the defensive end.

Rating: 3 Units

Utah does a lot of things right but they don’t always show up. They did just lose to the Wizards 4 nights ago. Utah could also be in a ‘look ahead’ mode with the next three on the road including two games against Conference foe the Lakers. Indy came out flat when they lost to the Jazz in February. They were only down 7 points entering the fourth quarter despite the fact that two Pacers starters were a combined 14 for 39 from the floor. The Pacers have won 4 of their last 5 with the loss coming at the hands of the Clippers.

Rating: 3 Units

The Kings are a top 10 scoring team but they are in the bottom half of the league in offensive three-point field-goal percentage. Opponents have to dare Sacramento to jack it up from outside. Only one team gives up more points nightly than the Kings. Sacramento beat the Suns early in the season but this is an entirely different Phoenix team. In that Kings win in December, the Suns center Deandre Ayton only took 5 shots and only had 9 points. In the last 6 games, Ayton has had 19, 18, 14, 18, 18 and 27 points. Chris Paul makes sure Phoenix takes good shots. The Suns have been able to win close games and they have been able to blow teams out of the water. Phoenix has won 10 of its last 11 games. Several have been by 5 points or less, a couple of wins have come in overtime and they are coming off a win over Miami by the score of 106 to 86.

Rating: 2 Units

Celts lost 96-95 when the Lakers visited Boston on Jan. 30. Anthony Davis had 27 points, 14 rebounds. Lebron James had 21-7-7. As you know, neither will play tonight. Boston’s Marcus Smart got hurt and exited early in the fourth quarter of that game. The Celtics have been out West winning while the Lakers’ B squad was scrapping during a 3-2 up-and-down Eastern trip that ended with an “up” in Charlotte. “We’ve got guys that have now played a little bit together, are getting in a rhythm together,” Celtics coach Brad Stevens says. “When Smart, Jaylen [Brown}, Jayson [Tatum], Kemba [Walker] are all out there, of course we’re gonna look a little different.” L.A. hasn’t won two in a row since downtrodden Cleveland and Orlando visited here March 26 and 28.

Rating: 4 Unit Total of the Day

The first meeting in Boston was 96-95 game that included Lebron James and Anthony Davis for the Lakers. That’s a lot of points, from guys who get fouled a lot, missing for the re-match as far as the Lakers are concerned. They might have to get lucky to reach our forecast of 90.

Rating: 3 Units

"That was a big game for us," Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr said after beating back Denver prior to this trip. "We have a chance to get on a little run. It was important for us to get a win, especially against a really good team." Unlike Doc Rivers, who doesn’t know who his next opponent is, Steve Kerr knew where they’d be flying with a good opportunity despite missing James Wiseman and Kelly Oubre – to this first of three remaining games with lousy OKC this month. It takes place with rest after the Blunder, er, Thunder, lost at Utah last night with Lu Dort taking 31 of the team’s 93 shots against a scrimmaging home favorite. The Golden State mindset will be very different.

Rating: 3 Units

On Feb. 5 and 6, the Bulls scored 119 and 118 points here against the Magic in
a 1-1, back-to-back split. But now, the guy who had 43 points against them for
the Magic in the game Orlando won, Nikola Vucevic, is on Chicago’s side. Since the All-Stark break, Orlando has failed to reach 100 points in nine of 18 games. They’ve lost six in a row, the four most recent at home, the last two by 124-87 and 120-97 scores. Opposing head coach Popovich the other night: “Orlando is in a tough spot right now, but they’re trying.” They’ve lost six straight, 19 of 23. “We’ve got to learn how to win, and that goes for myself, too,” former Bull Wendell Carter said. If Billy Donovan thought Carter could learn to win, then he probably wouldn’t have traded him. Fellow Orlando center Mo Bamba set a career highs in scoring twice in the past three games, but left Monday’s loss in the first quarter with a hip contusion and did not return.

Rating: 3 Units

The Nets rolled to victory in Minnesota yesterday afternoon game against an opponent with off-court city distractions. They were fortunate that Karl Anthony-Towns didn’t play along with the fact three Minnesota starters had only 12 points combined. The Sixers lost to the Nets in January on a night when Joe Harris put up 28 points, double his average this season. Philly destroyed the Nets in February. They had twice as many steals, 7 guys got to double figures and Brooklyn allowed the Sixers to shoot 51% from the floor. Shake Milton has been instant offense for Philly off the bench and he can get his own shot whenever he wants it. One thing that can’t be overlooked is how often Joel Embiid gets to the free-throw line. In the 51 games Joel played last season, he got to the line 435 times. He has already attempted 419 free throws in 36 games This allows the defense to set up and avoid being caught in a bad transition situation.

Rating: 2 Units

Charlotte will be without Malik Monk and Gordon Hayward here. Gordon has been out for a while but when Cleveland beat the Hornets early in the season, Gordon was 11 for 18 from the floor. The Lakers were in North Carolina on Tuesday and Charlotte had to fight tooth and nail. When the smoke cleared the Hornets could not shake off the fact they only scored 16 in the third quarter and it cost them the game. Okay, Cleveland has trouble putting it in the hole but they are just outside the top ten in allowing points and they should be focused here. Cleveland has not played since Sunday when they blew a fourth-quarter lead against New Orleans. The emphasis will be on playing 48 minutes.

Rating: 3 Units

The Suns let their defensive guard down in the second half last night after they’d led the Rockets by as many as 25 points, a lead that was built up on wide-open three-pointers against socially distant Houston defense. The Heat, by their own account, packed their defensive pants for this West Coast road trip. They held the offensive-minded Blazers to 98 points on Sunday while scoring 107 of their own, which is 7 points fewer than defensively suspect Portland allows per game.

Rating: 3 Units

The Hornets will be without Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk, scorers #2, #3 and #5 at 19.6, 15.9 and 13.1 ppg. Terry Rozier, Devonte Graham, Miles Bridges — all nice players but not the most consistent in terms of scoring reliability — get more minutes and shots in their absences. The Lakers will be without Davis and James, who, of course, are their top two scorers at 22.5 and 25.4 ppg. The B squad is 5-8 when both don’t play because they can’t replace that kind of production.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hawks can do very little wrong these days. They’re now 15-6 SU since Bogdan Bogdanovich returned from a two-month absence. Nate McMillan took one look at that Charlotte team against whom we made Atlanta a big play on Sunday and said, “Ah, let’s make it interesting and sit Trae Young and Danilo Gallinari when we’re already missing John Collins, Cam Reddish, Tony Snell and Kris Dunn, watch the number on us shift from -4 to +2, see if we can’t get a game up on these guys in the standings while the injury chasers load up on the Hornets!’ Well, maybe he didn’t say it exactly like that but it sure worked out his/our way!

Rating: 2 Units

Indy has split their last 8 games but only one of the wins was against a team playing over .500 ball. Myles Turner has missed three games in a row and he has been a force all season protecting the rim. Myles didn’t practice on Monday. Even though the Clippers are a little banged up, they continue to do the little things that equate to wins. They have won 5 in a row and this is a game they need with Detroit on deck in 24 hours and then a trip to Philly. L.A. just beat Detroit on Sunday without Kawhi Leonard and Leonard is not expected to play here. Look for Marcus Morris to again step up. When the Clips beat Indy in January, Paul George had a pedestrian games but they held the Pacers to 29% from beyond the arc.

Rating: 3 Units

Jamal Murray hasn’t played the last four games for Denver. Center James Wiseman is out for Golden State. Kelly Oubre seems unlikely for them as well, which would leave them without their #3 and #4 scorers. Murray is Denver’s #2 scorer. If he hasn’t played four in a row, it seems unlikely they’d ship him along with the rest of team for the second of back-to-backs. With offensive cogs missing on both sides, the defensive assignments become easier. Not as easy as Denver scoring only 8 points in yesterday’s fourth quarter but you get the idea.

Rating: 2 Units

This game is actually a revenge outing for the NBA’s current #1, as they lost 131-122 in Washington on May 18, a game in which Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook both showed up, then scored 43 and 35 points while taking 47 of the Wizards’ 86 field goal attempts. Another indication of where heads are at in  Wizard World: 8-23 vs. Eastern Conference, 11-10 vs. the West including wins against the current #1 through #6. After carrying Washington at Golden State, Beal took off for their next-night sacrifice to Phoenix, making him a decent candidate to show up tonight.

Rating: 3 Units

It’s a home invasion situation: Sacramento arrived in New Orleans yesterday as the Pelicans were leaving town flying to Cleveland for their Sunday road matchup. Losing a home game, outright, to a rested road underdog that needs to beat them to keep any hope alive of getting the #10 play-in spot, as #11 New Orleans has a leg up on them for it, is definitely within the Pelicans’ losing-tendency scope. The Kings’ misery streak (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS run) only makes it more of an opportunity for the Pelicans to do their thing and blow it. Sacramento won here 118-109 on Feb. 1.

Rating: 2 Units

Dallas hosted Texas rival the Spurs on Sunday and the Mavericks got 60 points from Luca Doncic and Kristaps but it wasn’t enough for a victory. Philly won in OKC on Saturday and they kept their foot on the gas the entire game winning every quarter including the last stanza by 10 points. The Sixers were poor in the loss to the Pelicans on Friday but they learned from the game. They took New Orleans lightly and didn’t compete for the 50-50 balls. Embiid had the lowest point total in months vs. New Orleans and he showed dedication after the game. He was on the court in the Big Easy for nearly 15 minutes after the game working on his shot.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hornets have won 4 of 6 including a clever win over Milwaukee on Friday. In that game five Charlotte players had at least 18 points. Charlotte is currently in position to have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs but they need to compete nightly as they have 6 teams climbing down their neck. One of the best assets for the Hornets is they share the ball as only 4 clubs have more assists on average. Atlanta doesn’t match up great with Charlotte. They lost back-to-back games to the Hornets early in the season by an average margin of 8 points.

Rating: 3 Units

Even with just a few well-known players, Washington has no problem scoring. They do have problems defending and protecting the ball. They are 24th in the league to Phoenix’ 6th in turnovers and they give up more points than any club. Phoenix had every right to lay down on Thursday against the Clippers after beating Utah in overtime the night before. Instead, they were only down two points with 12 minutes to go before succumbing by 10. Deandre Ayton has been sensational in the last 2 games. Against Utah he had 12 rebounds. Seven of them were offensive and he deflected a number of balls to his teammates when they were 50-50 possessions. Against the Clippers, nearly half of his rebounds were of the offensive variety. Phoenix is third in the league in point differential ahead of clubs like Milwaukee, Denver, Philly and Brooklyn.

Rating: 3 Units

The Kings allow an average of 118.5 points per game, and that’s without having played the Jazz yet! They still have three games to play against Utah, who scores 117.0 ppg, #3 in the NBA. Sacramento’s defense was bad enough to give up 115 to the Lakers with L.A. missing Lebron James and Anthony Davis. The Spurs, who’ve been losing a lot of games lately, got 115 and 120 against the Kings, who can put the ball in the basket well enough. Sacramento has scored 141 and 132 vs. the Spurs and Warriors very recently, 128 vs. the Bucks.

Rating: 3 Units

The Cavaliers should assist in putting the Raptors, exiled and unwanted by that
nation up north, out of their misery. The handwriting has been on the wall for a
while about Toronto. Thursday’s home loss vs. Chicago – a worse effort than the final score of 122-113 indicates – was a 15th loss in the last 18 games. That recent 1-point win vs. Golden State will be offset by a bunch of smaller-margin losses and non-covers vs. the spread, we strongly feel. Dropping 3 games behind Chicago for the play-in spot was more message on the mirror, as if they really needed to see it. Cavs beat’em 116-105 on March 21 in Tampa. Visitor arrives wearing ‘Kick Me’ signs, home side happy to oblige.

Rating: 3 Units

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dealing with a left knee issue and there is really no positive to rushing him back to extended action with 21 games left to play before the end of the season. Milwaukee is in a great position to have the home-court advantage in the first round as they are currently the 3rd seed in the East, several games ahead of the 4th seed. Milwaukee might be able to coast a little. Charlotte will not be intimidated by Milwaukee. The Hornets beat them in January despite the fact Giannis had 34 points, 18 rebounds and 9 assists. Charlotte played the right way that night with 32 assists. That stat is no fluke as only 6 teams have more assists nightly. Charlotte has won 3 of 5 on this trip and one loss was to Brooklyn.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pelicans seem to have too much talent to only be 22-29. This is a tricky game for them in the first back after going 2 and 1 on the road. New Orleans has lost 4 of 5 and the win during this span was against the grounded Rockets. The Pelicans’ Brandon Ingram has missed several games and they will be without Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. This is not a good match-up for Steven Adams. Adams has held his own on the glass in the last 2 games he has faced Joel Embiid but he has been outscored by 28 points the last couple of times these players have met.

Rating: 3 Units

As the Knicks have slipped below .500, the Grizzlies have made a gradual climb above it to 25-23, with convincing victories against teams that have recently beaten the Knicks. Nobody else will use the tired and often-inappropriate cliché that this match-up is “two teams headed in different directions,” because it’s not obvious enough to them. But we’ll say it: These are two teams headed in different directions. Memphis won last season’s only meeting 127-106 and in the teams’ last ten games, Memphis is averaging 119 ppg vs. the Knicks’ 105.0. It’s nice to play defense and all that, but ball’s gotta get through basket, too.

Rating: 2 Units

A trio that is probably the T’Wolves’ three most explosive players – Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley -- haven’t played many games together this season. But Beasley is recently back from a suspension, Russell returned from his injury earlier in the week in grand style, Towns is finally playing himself into shape and rhythm, and a new head coach has the three of them to use for the first time since taking the reins as an upgrade to Ryan Saunders (anyone was going to be better). Therefore, Minnesota – NBA-worst straight-up record notwithstanding -- could be a sneaky-profitable team from here on out.

Rating: 3 Units

The Kings beat the Pistons only 110-107 at home in late February, but Marvin Bagley, III was still weighing them down at that point. Sacramento was ambushed by the return of D’Angelo Russell in Minnesota on Monday night but has had two days since to shake it off and prepare for what should be a must-win game in their minds, given that they’re still only 2 games behind Golden State for the #10 play in spot in the West. The Pistons are essentially out of contention in the East, and 6-21 SU on the road.

Rating: 3 Units

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 31 points, 9 assists, Al Horford 16 points, 8 rebounds, when OKC walloped the Cavaliers in Cleveland, 117-101. Immediately after that game, Cleveland won four straight games. New or old faces for them now, who weren’t playing in that loss, include Kevin Love, Taurean Prince, Larry Nance, Jr., Dean Wade, Isaiah Hartenstein, Matthew Dellavadova. Not making Thunderous noises for the home team tonight: the aforementioned stars of the earlier meeting, Gilgeous-Alexander and Horford

Rating: 2 Units

Toronto was life and death to beat the 17-32 Wizards on Monday and then could not stave off the Lakers on Tuesday. L.A. was playing without their two best players and the Lakers won despite turning it over 21 times. Toronto used to be a force when teams had to travel to Canada but now playing their home games in Tampa, the Raptors are just 11-13 at ‘home’. Chicago took care of the Raptors last month and they were horrible from long range shooting just 27% from beyond the arc. The Bulls played the right way and in that win in March as a total of 9 Chicago players got to double figures. The Bulls also had 35 assists.

Rating: 2 Units

People who go around saying that the Utah Jazz have been in the process of peaking too soon should stay consistent and pick the #2 team behind them in the Western Conference to beat them. You know those people – oh, wait, they is us! The Suns are suddenly only 2.5 games out of first place in the West, eyeing “NBA best record” territory. They’re a good defensive team, on their home floor, and they’ve already beaten the Jazz 106-95 in Utah. What’s not to like?

Rating: 3 Units

Experienced, trustworthy, productive guards are lacking on the home underdog, who happens to have the NBA’s worst pointspread record (16-34 ATS, 32.0%). Should you choose to go their way, against a decent bottom-feeder of a road favorite 7-3 SU last 10 games, who was also good enough to beat league-leading Utah the other night – as we expected – then good luck to you, for you shall probably need it.

Rating: 3 Units

Losing LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward puts a major crimp in the Charlotte offense. Losing Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, Al Horford, having Lu Dort hurt all the time, puts a major crimp in the OKC offense. In their last five games, both teams are shooting only 41.5% overall, which is #28 and #29 in that span in a 30-team league.

Rating: 2 Units

This is the third game in four nights for the Pelicans. Atlanta hosted New Orleans on Tuesday and Zion Williamson did his part with a monster game but the Pelicans missed Brandon Ingram in the defeat. New Orleans is 3 and 6 in the second of back-to-back games this season. And they lost to some challenged clubs like Houston and Chicago. Brooklyn had won 4 in a row before losing to Chicago last Sunday. James Harden tested his injured hamstring against the Knicks on Monday but he only lasted a few minutes before leaving the game for good and he will miss extended time. In that Monday win Jeff Green had a ‘glory days’ night with 23 points, 4 boards, an assist, a block and a couple of long-range bombs. Brooklyn can throw a lot of bodies at the Pelicans big men with Jeff Green, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan among others. The Nets are also expected to have Kevin Durant set for this game.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s a home invasion in the first degree, with Milwaukee having set up an Oakland base camp in full case-the-joint mode before the Warriors had even tipped it off 2,800 miles away in Atlanta on Sunday night. The Bucks are 3-1 on a six-game trip so far. A win would guarantee a winning Western excursion, always a good goal for a good team to achieve; Warriors have lost 12 of their last 16 and they haven’t been tanking games so they can surprise the Bucks with a revenge spanking for the 138-99 loss suffered in Milwaukee on Christmas Day. Sure, they might do it, but they haven’t been saving themselves for it.

Rating: 3 Units

Off 16- and 30-point wins on this floor vs. the perpetually addled Rockets and the suddenly semi-depleted Hornets, the Celtics could be in for a rude  awakening as the healthy 76ers come to town with Joel Embiid in his second game back from his mid-season vacation spent while his teammates were going through the motions out West and actually, not disgracing themselves in the least. But they disgraced themselves when he sat out their second of home back-to-backs against Memphis the other night, shooting 8-for-34 on three-pointers in defeat. More than likely, he’ll be back and off that loss, and falling out of first place by a half game, with the memory of being outsted from the post-season by the Celtics still there…

Rating: 3 Units

In an effort to make the playoffs, the Bulls acquired Nikola Vucevic from Orlando. He has not disappointed, scoring 21+ points in every game so far. Defense is optional in their first season under Billy Donovan. The available players have been changing since Day 1 because of injuries, etc. and now the trade. It’s hard enough to install a defensive system in Year One without having interruptions in the rotations. But they’ve got two guys who can go off — Zach Lavine and Vucevic — and Lauri Maarkenen isn’t chopped liver at 16.4 ppg. Malcolm Brogdon is an overlooked Pacer leading them in scoring at 21.2 ppg. Caris Levert joined them 12 games ago and averages 15.9 ppg. Nate Bkorkenen is another first-season head coach and he’s been wanting the Pacers to play more like the Raptors, which is what many new coaches do after they were assistants on teams that won. Better to do it with Raptors players better conditioned for it. Defense has been getting lost in the translation.

Rating: 3 Units

Gonzaga survived a miraculous effort from UCLA on Saturday night, as Jalen Suggs closed a terrific game with an all-time shot at the buzzer. The Bulldogs held off a UCLA offense that made an incredible amount of mid-range shots and produced 1.22 points per possession. Gonzaga was not at their best, making 7-of-21 three point attempts while missing eight additional free throws. Gonzaga’s ability to win such a game should bode well for their ability to close out their perfect season. Gonzaga’s 6’10 standout Drew Timme will continue to lead the way against a Baylor attack that is headlined by a group of guards. While the Bears backcourt is sensational, their frontcourt components lack a bit when stacking up next to Timme on this stage. The starting duo Flo Thamba and Mark Vital have shown to be the weak link of the Baylor chain this postseason. Timme has rolled through the NCAA Tournament, scoring at least 22 points in the last four games, converting on 70.1% of two point attempts during that stretch. Gonzaga’s guards are also well suited to negate the strength of Baylor’s defense as well. Gonzaga ranks 34th-best in turnover rate, while the Bears defense ranks 3rd in generating turnovers. Without doing so, Baylor’s defense only grades out as adequate, raking 113th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Gonzaga’s perfect season should be completed with Timme controlling the interior and the Bulldog guards keeping the offense humming.

Rating: 3 Units

Dallas has lost twice to Utah so far this season and neither game was pretty for the Texans. They came out flat in both contests and the ball stuck in both games with 22 assists in one loss and 20 in the other. That is not fluke. Only three teams have fewer assists nightly than the Mavericks. Utah figures to want this game with the next pair back-toback on the road against teams currently in solid playoff position. Utah just held Orlando to 2 for 23 from deep in the Jazz win on Saturday. The average winning margin of Utah’s victories over Dallas this season is 16 points.

Rating: 3 Units

Second of back-to-backs for the Nets while the Knicks are rested. But the Knicks, as you know, don’t beat good teams. Brooklyn must be a good team, because they are 34-16, tied for first place in the Eastern Conference with Philadelphia. We figured the Nets for a loss yesterday in what appeared to have been, and was, a circled game for the semi-desperate Bulls when tonight’s no rest, intra-city date was on deck for Brooklyn. The Knicks used the Pistons for false confidence the other night in New York’s most dominant win of the season, 125-81. They are due back on planet Earth.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets have some pick-and-roll finishers now, with Christian Wood back from injury and Kelly Olynyk acquired via trade. Head coach Stephen Silas wants to experiment with both on the floor for short segments, which doesn’t exactly strike fear in anyone’s heart but could be something that confuses Stan the Man and his lazy, 7-14 SU on-the-road Pelicans enough to matter. A coach who cannot manage his personnel so that he can put a competitive team on the floor against an opponent playing an eighth straight road game (Atlanta, 23-point home loss for New Orleans despite no Trae Young, Danilo Gallinari and John Collins!) should be fired on the spot. That won’t happen. But it’s on the list of reasons why we think that Van Gundy is the worst.

Rating: 3 Units

Charlotte is just really banged-up with LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward out for quite some time and Malik Monk out of action with a sprained ankle. In their last 3 defeats, the Hornets failed to reach 100 points. If Boston is going to make a move, they have to get this game against Charlotte. Five of the next 6 Celtics games are against teams currently in position to make the playoffs. Even though Boston is clinging to the 8th spot in the East, they are only a game and a half of out of the 4th seed, now held by Charlotte

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulls had 58 points in the paint through three quarters at Utah the other night, with no fear of Rudy Gobert. It was a good workout in advance of this game, in which Brooklyn’s interior defense, patched together on the fly after several trades, will be tested. Chicago has yet to win (0-4 SU) since acquiring Nikola Vucevic from the Magic but they are off 5- and 7-point losses at on-fire Western Conference clubs Phoenix and Utah, despite playing without Zach Lavine (at Phoenix), and Garrett Temple (at Utah). Vucevic has had 22-14, 28-12 and 34-10 games against Brooklyn already this season.

Rating: 3 Units

Men vs. Boys, Part II for Portland shortly after they did a number on the Pistons in Detroit, with last night’s loss to the Bucks in between to angry them up. The Blazers are a now-healthy, veteran group that has won 60.4% of their games. The Thunder is a young group headed nowhere special with its best scorer out, its veteran “leader” Al Horford shut down for the season, another alleged veteran leader (George Hill) traded, Lu Dort banged up. They play a second of road back-to-backs coming out of Phoenix last night, where, given our ***BEST BET on Phoenix, we expected them to get killed. They sure enough did, 140-113, losing two more quarters after the Suns’ 43-13 first.

Rating: 3 Units

Few opponents take Orlando seriously, which poses a problem for handicappers/bettors. They are 4-0 ATS since trading away three mainstays and using a starting lineup including guys like Chasson Randle, Chuma Okeke, Khem Birch and Dwight (Save Our) Bacon. When some opposing coaches see them coming, they say, ‘Oh, I think I’ll rest my leading scorer, and my second leading scorer… and maybe one or two other guys! However, Utah rested Donovan Mitchell earlier in the week. Aha! The Magic shot 5-for-25 on threes yet still won outright by 5 points in their last game, at New Orleans, who showed up with essentially nobody. No such luck here, probably.

Rating: 5 Unit Final Four Game of the Week

Gonzaga has been full throttle throughout the NCAA Tournament, defeating Oklahoma by 16 points, Creighton by 18 and USC by 19. All three of those teams certainly would have been favored over this UCLA team before the Bruins magical run. While the Bruins have caught lighting in a bottle and are playing well, their lack of explosiveness on offense is going to make for an uphill climb against the Zags. UCLA’s Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez have been tasked with carrying the load for the Bruins, with marginal help from elsewhere. Gonzaga on the other hand has the luxury of multiple players who can create and make shots. Remarkably, Gonzaga now owns three of the Top 10 players in KenPom’s Player of the Year race. That trio of Drew Timme, Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert will prove to simply be too much to keep up with. As best as he will try, Mick Cronin will be the next coach in line who unsuccessfully attempts to slow the tempo against Mark Few’s bunch. Look for UCLA’s three point defense to run out of luck, as the Bruins have been fortunate to see opposing teams during this run make only 27.7% of attempts from downtown.

Rating: 2 Units

Cleveland may not know if they are coming or going. They just went 1 and 3 on the road, came home to Ohio to lose to Philly, and now travel for this game and 2 more on the highway. When Cleveland lost to Miami last month they were held to 29% from beyond the arc and JaVale McGee was 8 for 10 from the floor. McGee has moved on to Denver. The Cavaliers are dead last in the league in points per game. Miami is coming around. They have won three in a row and Victor Oladipo started in his Miami debut and it’s only a matter of time before he feels more comfortable in his new surroundings. Youngsters Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro have also heated up. They were 16 for 28 from the floor in the win over Golden State on Thursday.

Rating: 3 Units

Going into Friday’s game vs. Memphis, Minnesota had won 4 of 10 games and 3 of the wins came against teams that are currently in the playoff pictures. A major problem for the Wolves is the matador defense they play as they give up 117 a game. Minnesota is 3 and 6 this season in the second of back-to-back games. In the Friday game Minnesota was horrible in the second half in the facile Memphis victory. Philly just went 4 and 2 on a road trip and the losses came against the current 4th and 5th seeds in the West. The Sixers kept their foot on the gas beating Cleveland on Thursday as they won every quarter. They were victorious despite the fact 2 Philly starters were just 3 for 16 from the floor.

Rating: 3 Units

OKC head coach Mark Daigneault: "Where we are vulnerable is in details, and it shows up on both ends of the floor, and it takes time." Phoenix is the NBA’s most underrated team. They have the best pointspread percentage (31-16, 66.0% ATS) to prove it. They probably want to right a wrong: a 102-97 home loss to OKC, in which Al Horford had 21 points, 11 rebounds, Shai Gilgeous Alexander 21 points, and the Suns had a 10-point second quarter playing without Devin Booker. Horford has been "shut down for the season," SGA is out injured. Booker should be in.

Rating: 3 Units

Charlotte was in Brooklyn on Thursday and they must have not been in the right frame of mind. The Hornets scored just 11 points in the first quarter and that doomed their fate. These teams splits the 2 games this season in January. In the Indy loss to Charlotte two of the Pacers starters were a combined 6 for 18 from the floor and the Pacers bench was outscored. Miami visited Indy on Wednesday and Indy was right there with 12 minutes to go but they lost the last stanza by 7 points and the game by 5.

Rating: 2 Units

Inconsistency has plagued the Knicks. They beat Milwaukee 6 nights ago and then they lost to the 12 and 36 Timberwolves last Wednesday. Both R. J. Barrett and Derrick Rose are iffy for New York with ankle issues. Dallas has won 2 of their last 3 games and the loss last Saturday was in the second of a back-to-back game when the Mavericks could not handle Zion Williamson. Look for Kristaps Porzingas to be primed to stick it to his former club.

Rating: 2 Units

At #4 in the East, the Hornets are closer to #14 Toronto (6.5 games in front of the Raptors) than to #1 tie Brooklyn and Philadelphia (7.5 games behind). They beat the Nets at home, 106-104, in the third game of the season. ""We have to treat every team like it’s Brooklyn," Gordon Hayward said afterwards. "We had this sense of urgency." They figure to treat this opponent like it’s Brooklyn. Because it’s Brooklyn. The Hornets are 14-6 ATS as a road underdog; Nets are 2-7 ATS last nine games, during which their only two covers have been when they were +2 underdogs at Portland and Indiana. As the chalk in this span, they’re 0-6 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

Detroit has lost to some bad teams this season like Houston, Cleveland and Orlando. The Pistons try to defend but their offense kills them. They are 25th in scoring and rebounding. Detroit just lost to this club on Saturday despite Bradley Beal having to leave the game. Russell Westbrook just took over the game. Detroit hosted Portland on Wednesday and after competing for 12 minutes, the Pistons faded into sunset in the loss. Washington should have an edge in the middle with Detroit’s Mason Plumlee going against Alex Len and Robin Lopez. In the loss to Charlotte on Tuesday Alex and Robin combined for 26 points and 16 rebounds.

Rating: 3 Units

A first-place team 32-15 overall (but 0-2 vs. Cleveland!) has lost the last two games of a six-game road trip in Denver and L.A., to a couple of 60%+ straight-up winners. The 76ers are 3-2 on this trip. Good teams take care of business in situations such as this. Doc Rivers was looking at his watch after the first quarter in Denver Tuesday night with the scoreboard 43-22 against his team, and let the bench players take it from there. The Cavaliers have used 22 different starting lineups in 47 games, and were without Larry Nance, Jr., Jarrett Allen, Matthew Dellavadova for the 39-point loss at Utah. Kevin Love didn’t play, either, but does he count anymore?

Rating: 3 Units

Like we said earlier, no good team ‘wants’ to lose three straight, but the Bucks have. They didn’t ‘want’ to lose five straight in January, but they did. They don’t ‘want’ to lose a fourth straight game tonight, and with the Lakers 2-4 SU since Lebron went down while Lebrow was already out, they probably won’t. The Lakers have scored 100 and 96 points beating downtrodden Cleveland and Orlando in their last two games. You’re probably aware that a 98 ppg average would be last in the NBA, which is why they were able to beat two depleted teams that are scraping Eastern Conference bottom. Over the last 10 days, which is five games for L.A., only Cleveland is averaging fewer than the Lakers’ 1.0 points per possession. The Bucks have revenge for 113-106 home loss when the Lakers were fully represented (A. Davis and L. James each played 38 minutes) and fully energized in the first game of an Eastern road trip.

Rating: 3 Units

Jaylen Brown missed the Monday game when the Celts lost to New Orleans. Jayson Tatum had 34 points but he takes a lot of tough shots and Boston allowed the Pelicans to shoot 51% from beyond the arc. Dallas has a number of quality wins against teams like Brooklyn, the Clips and Denver. The Texans beat Boston last month in the second of a back-to-back game when the Big Three from Boston all had excellent games. Luca Doncic returned from a back issue on Monday and he put in a good all-around performance. The important thing is that he only had to play 28 minutes.

Rating: 2 Units

Indy won both of the games this season against Miami but in one of the wins they got a bit of a break when 2 of the Miami starters were only 4 for 20 from the floor. In D.C. on Monday the Pacers could not keep up with the potent Washington offense. Trevor Ariza is starting to feel comfortable with Miami and he has championship credentials. The Heat were in New York on Monday and although he was rusty, Goran Dragic was back in action in the victory. Miami held New York to 28% from long range.

Rating: 3 Units

After completing the 3-0 sweep of the Toronto franchise that fired him the year before it won the NBA title, Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey probably won’t have the screws too tight for this next affair. It’s a young team with the East’s worst record and young teams tend to be the most volatile in their form, anyway. The Blazers attempt to sweep a four-game Eastern road trip in what amounts to a Men vs. Boys scenario and the men don’t have to win by much to accomplish the task for their backers as well as themselves. These were the types of match-ups that Portland needed to win to stay in a good playoff place before McCollum and Nurkic came back. Now that they’re both back, it’s a game in which they should cruise.

Rating: 2 Units

It’s the second of back-to-backs for the host Clippers (vs. rested Magic) after they entertained a more lucrative opponent, Milwaukee. But L.A. head coach Tyronne Lue is on record as saying that back-to-backs test your manhood. His players have taken his words to heart: 8-0 SU and ATS with no rest. The Magic relieved themselves of 59 starting points in their recent trades. They are out West on a wing and some prayers as non-miracle working head coach Steve Clifford attempts to figure it all out, while by no means safe from becoming an eventual victim of the ol’ teardown process himself.

Rating: 3 Units

We didn’t think Michigan guards would ever get comfortable on the perimeter against Florida State. Apparently, neither did Wolverines’ head coach Juwan Howard, his coaching staff and the players, because they just went into the paint for 50 of their 76 points while Leonard (Zzzz) Hamilton took another one of his frequent bench naps on company time. With 50 points in the paint and 15 on free throws, Michigan needed to make only 3 of 11 three-point attempts for a comfy-cozy win in which they allowed Florida State to get to the free-throw line for only 6 attempts. But this is a tougher defensive prep for both sides with only one day between games. Both offenses are good with ball security. Michigan’s 2-point defense (42.7%) is the best UCLA has faced. The Bruins were 0-2 vs. USC, who ranked four spots lower than Michigan’s #8 national rank in that category.

Rating: 3 Units

Many teams have been flummoxed by USC’s length and zone defense this season, and that has carried the Trojans to the Elite 8. However, they’ll now have to deal with the most skilled and diverse offense in the nation when taking on the Zags. Gonzaga is making 37.3% of three-point attempts this season and have multiple options to cycle through the middle of the Trojans’ zone. Drew Timme serves as an excellent option to be a decision maker, while they can surround the big man with quality shooting. Gonzaga has simply looked like they’re on a different level than anyone this year, as even Oklahoma and Creighton played respectable games and still ended up on the losing side by 17 and 18 point margins. USC would need to be at their best again to have a chance of staying within single digits.

Rating: 3 Units

Washington had lost 8 of 10 before hosting the Pacers on Monday. Bradley Beal didn’t play Monday but Washington won a taxing game behind a monster game from Russell Westbrook. Charlotte had a pretty rough road trip starting a couple of weeks ago when they beat Spurs in their final road game of that stretch to avoid going 0 for 4 on the journey. They had won 3 in a row before losing to Phoenix in overtime on Sunday. When the Hornets beat this team last month they won the battle of the boards and got efficient games out of both Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward.

Rating: 2 Units

Arkansas has had a bad habit of falling behind early all season long. In fact, the last five Razorback wins have all come after trailing by double digits. However, if that trend continues, there will be no recovering from it against an elite Baylor team. The Bears have the ability to shut down a fairly uncreative Arkansas offense and take advantage in transition. Perhaps no duo of guards left in the country are as dangerous on both ends as Baylor’s Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell. Arkansas has had an advantage against most teams with their ability to go small, that will not be the case against the Bears. The Bears are in a position to thrive in a small-ball game.

Rating: 3 Units

The Mavericks held the Thunder to 78 points on March 3. On March 11, at OKC, in the second of back-to-backs after having beaten San Antonio at home the prior night, head coach Rick Carlisle opted to rest both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. They trailed 35-19 after the first quarter and lost the game. Oopsie! Won’t do that again! Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was 11-for-22, game-high 32 points for OKC in their win. He’ll take a non-recorded 0 tonight. Meanwhile, there will be no rest for the non-weary dynamic Dallas duo as the Mavericks are off two losses, with a day between games, and every game has playoff-making implications for the West’s current #8 team until they don’t.

Rating: 3 Units

The Knicks’ outright win at Milwaukee would have been a tough one to ignore had Milwaukee actually been trying. But starters Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Donte DiVincenzo and Jrue Holiday sat, as did sixth man Bobby Portis. New York comes back home with a false sense of confidence off three straight wins, four in the last five, as Miami is desperate. The Heat have lost three games vs. Indiana and Charlotte in the last 10 days which triggered a drop in the standings into a #8 tie with the Pacers, 2 games behind the #4 Knicks. It didn’t help when Western Conference winners Phoenix and Portland were scheduled to hit their town in between those losses. They’ve lost six straight and are 5-14 against opponents with winning records. Let’s make it 6-14.

Rating: 4 Unit Midwest Region Play of the Day

Houston is likely to again face a bunch of zone defense when they take on the upstart Oregon State team. Houston has seen nearly every type of zone imaginable after having played in a zone heavy American Athletic Conference and having just taken down Syracuse’s 2-3 attack. The Cougars will again attack the offensive glass, where they’re elite, as the Beavers rank 228th in defensive rebound rate. Houston guard DeJon Jarreau is also a terrific candidate to shut down Oregon State leading scorer, Ethan Thompson. Jarreau frustrated and shut down Syracuse’s Buddy Boeheim on Saturday, and his leadership continues to lead the way for the Cougars. Along with Jarreau, Houston guards Marcus Sasser and Quentin Grimes have proven to give Houston enough perimeter ability to successfully create offense that is efficient enough given their prowess on defense and on the glass.

Rating: 3 Units

Washington makes it hard on themselves because they don’t defend. They give up the most points in the Association. Bradley Beal was iffy for the win over Detroit on Saturday but he suffered a hip contusion, left the game, and didn’t return. Davis Bertans is out with calf issues. Davis is 38% from downtown this season. Beal has missed only 3 games for Washington this season and the Wizards have lost all of them. Indy has won 4 of 5 and the loss during this span came against the high-scoring Milwaukee club when the Pacers were playing the second of a back-to-back game. Caris LeVert will really help Indy in the second half of the season.

Rating: 3 Units

One game prior to leaving for this first of a five-game Western trip, the Magic traded a good share of their points production away – Center Nikola Vucevic, forward Aaron Gordon, guard Evan Fournier. They were already missing three injured guys they’d been counting on to be key players in 2020-21, guards Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, forward Jonathan Isaac. Terrence Ross is now the “best” player on what appears to be a much worse team as Tankathon 2021 begins, an event the Lakers are not participating in. L.A. is, however, prepared to take out the violins and fiddle a sad tune for Orlando while using the Magic’s situation to help relieve some of the desperation within their own little issue, which is being Lebron- and Lebrowless.

Rating: 4 Unit West Region Play of the Day

USC is proving to be too big and too athletic for many teams to contend
with. The Trojans were just that in their last meeting against Oregon on February 22nd. Even without starting forward Isaiah Mobley during that contest, the Trojans won by a score of 72-58. USC allowed just 40.0% on two-point attempts for the Ducks. USC currently owns the nation’s best interior defense, and look for that to carry them forward to the Elite 8. In a dominant win over Kansas on Monday, the Mobley brothers, both Evan and Isaiah, totaled 27 points, 21 rebounds and four blocked shots.

Rating: 3 Units

Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton maintained all season long that his team had another level to get to, and it appears the Seminoles are starting to do so. Florida State didn’t always bring defensive intensity throughout the year, but are doing so now. “That’s just kind of what we were supposed to do the whole year,” said center Balsa Koprivica. “It’s always our emphasis. But now everything is on the line, and it’s win or go home. We’re just all focused, talking to each other. And this is what we have to do to win these types of games. Because not every game is going to be a good shooting night.” Florida State’s overall length and athleticism will cause fits for Michigan’s more traditional lineup.

Rating: 2 Units

Gonzaga, 28-0, cruised through the season without being a serious participant in basketball’s mass movement towards being heavy on the three-point shot. They average 7.6 makes on 20.4 attempts per game, below average in volume (but an above-average 37.5% in accuracy). They’ve zeroed in from inside the arc, but not with the frowned-upon 2-point jumpers. At a high 75.1 possessions per game, the ’Zags have attempted 48.7% of their shots near the rim, sending an amazing 72.5% of them through the net with a top 30 free-throw rate attached. They’ll get their threes on hoop and harm and put opponents in foul trouble while doing it. 34.9% of their shots have come in transition, where their Effective Field Goal % (factoring both twos and threes) is a national-high 65.9%. Creighton isn’t built to slow down opponents into half-court games and if they were, there’s the matter of Gonzaga’s national-high 58.4% Effective Field Goal % in non-transition.

Rating: 2 Units

When Charlotte beat this team last month LaMelo Ball had 20 points, 8 assists and a couple of steals. He is likely out for the season. Charlotte is in the bottom half of the league in scoring and allowing points and they allow clubs to shoot 47% from the floor, 23rd overall. Phoenix no longer sneaks up on anybody. They are the real deal. Chris Paul makes sure they take good shots and Devin Booker is liable to go off on any given night. The Suns have won 4 of 5 and the loss during this span came when they blew a fourth-quarter lead in Orlando after beating Miami 24 hours earlier.

Rating: 3 Unit NIT Championship Cash

Mississippi State is again expected to be without starting forward Tolu Smith, making the Bulldogs a bit smaller and without one main offensive option against a swarming Memphis defense. Memphis has put things together down the stretch this season, as their only two losses since February 1st have come in two narrow defeats against Houston. The Tigers defense is relentless, ranking 28th-best nationally in turnover rate. Their pressure will create a major
problem for a Bulldogs offense that has turned the ball over on 22.2% of possessions, ranking 318th. Ben Howland noted the challenges of Memphis’ defense on Saturday, likening it to Arkansas’ ‘40 minutes of hell’ from the early
1990’s.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cavaliers lost 119-105 to the Kings at home on Monday. They take the floor with revenge in a second of back-to-backs coming out of Laker Land last night. Cleveland’s leading scorer for the loss vs. the Kings was Javale McGee, which should tell us all something, given that McGee was traded to Denver three days later – they were showcasing him. The guy scored 18 points in 19 minutes and Denver snapped him up. The Cavaliers aren’t good, but it’s hard to believe that the starters for that game – Larry Nance, Isaac Okoro, Jarrett Allen, Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, are truly as bad as their -25, -18, -24, -25 and -26 plus-minuses for that game, compared to their opposite numbers on Sacramento.

Rating: 3 Units

Houston will have a full week to prepare for Syracuse’s 2-3 zone, and the Cougars won’t be unfamiliar with such a look. Houston played against a bunch of zone this season in the American Athletic Conference, as there are several teams in that conference that opt to play such a style. Houston has capable guards and their frontcourt is relentless in attacking the offensive glass. Houston ranks 2nd-best nationally in offensive rebound rate, an area where Syracuse’s defense always struggles. Consider that Houston is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Rating: 3 Units

Hamadou Diallo hadn’t been playing while injured for OKC, and then they traded him to Detroit. Their heart-and-soul motor, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, will be out for a while. With the absences and castoffs, Darius Bazley is now a top three scorer for them and he was out with an injury in their last game. The Celtics play with playoff-making urgency in just about every game, until they don’t anymore. They got a good reminder of how good they can be these last few days when, after 96 minutes at Milwaukee, they were +6 in points against a team with a 67% straight-up win percentage that’s 7.5 games ahead of them in the standings. If newly acquired Evan Fournier can step in and hit a few buckets, the fight would be even more unfair.

Rating: 3 Units

The Pistons had lost 9 of 12 before facing Brooklyn on Friday. The wins in that span came against the 12 and 31 Rockets, the Raptors when three key Toronto players were 7 for 27 from the field and the Raptors again when Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam didn’t play. On Friday Detroit could not contain James Harden and the Pistons lost a heart breaker. The emphasis for Washington will be to play the entire 48 minutes. They were leading New York by 11 points Thursday night with 12 minutes to go but lost the last stanza by 15 and the game by 4 points. Look for both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal to be pumped after going just a combined 11 for 38 from the floor Thursday.

Rating: 3 Units

Oral Roberts, a double digit underdog, have already shown once this season that they belong on the same floor as Arkansas. Oral Roberts held an early 12 point second half lead on the road at Arkansas back on December 20th. While the Golden Eagles did fall by an 11 point margin, they did so despite shooting 8-for-29 from long distance. Furthermore, star guard Max Abmas had an off game, playing just 32 minutes due to foul trouble and going 4-of-11 from the field. Consider that Oral Roberts is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Rating: 4 Unit South Region Play of the Day

This will be Villanova’s first real test without point guard Collin Gillepsie, and a terrific Bears backcourt is waiting to pounce. Baylor’s Davion Mitchell is one of the best defensive players in the country and will be ready to hound Villanova’s replacements at the guard spot. Baylor ranks 3rd-best nationally in turnover rate on the defensive end and has the ability to disrupt the Wildcats offense. The Bears backcourt is too good, too versatile and too experienced to not handle this mismatch. Villanova’s only chance will come from post player Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to dominate inside, but Baylor’s physicality will provide a strong test.

Rating: 2 Units

In hindsight, Wayne Tinkle was always a good one-and-done NCAA Tournament underdog when he coached Montana. But he and his Eager Beavers have really outdone themselves recently. They enter the Sweet 16 with five straight wins as the outright underdog. What were the odds of such a run? Oh, less than 1%. If they advance to the Elite Eight, then they’ll have pulled off a greater than 1,000-1 shot of six straight outright wins taking two or three possessions worth of points. They are an over-the-top 16-4 ATS as the dog.

Rating: 3 Units

Obviously missing LeBron and Anthony Davis changes the entire Lakers structure but they also will be without the steadying force of Marc Gasol. Philly has won 9 of 10 and the loss in this time frame was by 4 points to Milwaukee when the Sixers were playing the second of a back-to-back game. They beat the Lakers in January after losing in Detroit 48 hours earlier. In that win over L.A. LeBron had 34 points and Davis chipped in with 23. That’s a lot of points for the Lakers to find for this game.

NIT Game of the Week

Memphis has improved considerably since the start of February, with their only two losses during the last seven weeks coming at the hands of Houston. Even then, the Tigers were competitive, covering both games against the Cougars. Penny Hardaway has stated that his defensive system is now fully installed, and it’s paid dividends for his Memphis team. The Tigers defense now ranks 2nd-best nationally in defensive efficiency rating.

Rating: 3 Unit NIT Play of the Day

Richmond will at least be without starting center Grant Golden, and starting guard Blake Francis remains as a game-time decision. The Spiders will have to deal with a physical and big Mississippi State team without Golden. The Bulldogs should own the rebounding battle as well as the paint. Mississippi State will be led on the offensive end by starting guard D.J. Stewart, who produced 20 points and six assists in an impressive six-point victory over Saint Louis in the opening round of the NIT.

Rating: 3 Units

These teams split the 2 games this season but Memphis should have won both of them. In the Memphis loss 10 nights ago, the Grizzlies had a 10-point lead with 12 minutes to go but lost the game by 6. Memphis is sometimes challenged to score but they share the ball and they play solid defense holding teams to 111 a night, 12th overall. When Memphis can start Ja Morant, Grayson Allen, Dillion Brooks, Kyle Anderson and Jonas Valanciunas they are the best starters in the league allowing points per 100 possessions.

Rating: 3 Units

When Orlando lost to Phoenix in February the Magic were just 17% from beyond the arc. That is no fluke as Orlando is 20th in the league from downtown. Orlando hosted Denver on Tuesday in a game that Aaron Gordon played like a guy that wanted to get traded. He had a meaningless 13 points in the defeat. Phoenix is 7-1 this season in the second of back-to-back games including a win over Orlando last month 24 hours after beating the Sixers. Phoenix played last season’s Eastern Conference champs on Tuesday and in that game in Miami was down 15 in the first half and they could not rally.

Rating: 2 Units

When Orlando lost to Phoenix in February the Magic were just 17% from beyond the arc. That is no fluke as Orlando is 20th in the league from downtown. Orlando hosted Denver on Tuesday in a game that Aaron Gordon played like a guy that wanted to get traded. He had a meaningless 13 points in the defeat. Phoenix is 7-1 this season in the second of back-to-back games including a win over Orlando last month 24 hours after beating the Sixers. Phoenix played last season’s Eastern Conference champs on Tuesday and in that game in Miami was down 15 in the first half and they could not rally.

Rating: 3 Units

It took a talented Pepperdine squad some time to come to life in both of their opening CBI games, but eventually their talent was able to take over in wins against Bellarmine and Longwood. Now situated in a title game, the Waves should be motivated from the start. Pepperdine big man Kessler Edwards has proven to be a mismatch this week, as the 6’8 junior has totaled 50 points in 65 minutes through two games. With the pair of Edwards and guard Colbey Ross, the Waves will have the two best players on the floor on Wednesday night.

Rating: 3 Units

What the? They lost in Houston, these Raptors? In a blowout! They have all their guys back. They’re supposed to make a run towards the bottom rung of the Eastern Conference playoff ladder! Our initial impression of the Raptors early this season was “Fade the Raptors!” and it was a good take, for a while, until they started to win a few games. But now, we’re back to, “Fade the Raptors!” as their losing streak has hit nine. Some say they’ve “hit bottom” after losing to an opponent on a 20-game losing streak but after they lost to the worst team goin’, and haven’t won since Feb. 26, they’re probably still approaching bottom.