The Suns came out and took down the Warriors in game one on the road despite not having Beal available. While Beal's availability is still in question, the Suns should have enough fire to take down the Lakers. The Lakers will be a work in progress over the first part of the season. They have to adjust to James' playing time limitations and a roster full of new players. The loss of Jarred Vanderbilt to start the season is important to the Lakers' rotation. With Vanderbilt out, Prince has been put in a starting spot which weakens what could be a deep Lakers' bench. The Suns showed their own depth in the opener with 16 points off the bench from Gordon. Gordon will be a stalwart for the Suns' second unit and allow the team to thrive when either Durant or Booker is off the floor. The Suns also showed more toughness in the opener with Nurkic now at center. He earned a double-double on Tuesday night and helped to create space for Durant in the post. Word to the wise, jump on this line quickly. If Beal is cleared, this line will drop closer to one or two points.

Dallas is far from perfect, but they're a team that can score on anyone. Their two stars are playing, which will stress the rest of a Spurs roster that was the NBA's worst defensive outfit a year ago. The Mavs have won seven of the last eight meetings (four straight in San Antonio) and with a small spread, take them to win again

Rating: 2 Units

The spread is pretty wide here, but after the last two games, where the Nuggets won by double digits on the road, I think it is warranted. The Nuggets came into this series as a heavy favorite and just a flat out better team. Miami has been overachieving all season and Erik Spoelstra h as been making the right adjustments, outcoaching everyone is his wake. But he met his match with Malone, who has been one step ahead of the Heat. First he used the Nugget's size to his advantage, and then when Miami adjusted, they went outside and punished them from three. The Nuggets also shut down the role players that killed the Celtics and let Butler and Adebayo do their thing. A championship is so close they can taste it, and they will take care of business in front of the home crowd. Take the Nuggets to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nuggets have dominated this series and they show no signs of slowing down in this one. Jokic remains the most dominant player on the planet and with Miami having no answers on either end for him, he's the perfect player for a road team to play through. Will Murray's absence is a slight concern, the Nuggets have been able to find plenty of scoring throughout the roster. The Heat continue to be cold from three-point range, especially front their backcourt, which won't serve them well in this one. Miami's offense has been brutal through the first three games and there's no doubt that Denver will run away with the game four win. Additionally, according to covers.com, Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. On the other hand, the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Expect Erik Spoelstra to go back to the zone he used in most of the Boston series and that will help slow down the Nuggets. That defensive gimmick will help a lot more in Game 2 when the Heat have their legs back since they have Friday and Saturday off.  There's no doubt that going seven games against Boston had an effect on their performance on Thursday along with the altitude. Strus, Caleb Martin and Robinson combined for 2-for-23 in Game 1 and all three will bounce back in Game 2. Martin has been terrific in the postseason, averaging 13.5 points and shooting 44% from beyond the arc. But the biggest factor is Butler getting a couple of days off to rest his ankle and he will be looking to get to the line a lot more in this game. The Heat will push the Nuggets to the limit in Game 2 and will shoot a lot more than two free throws.

Rating: 2 Units

I'm usually not about chalk and big numbers in this situation, but Miami just had one of the most heartbreaking losses in the history of the NBA playoffs. Not to mention that they nearly won a game where Butler and Adebayo's jump shots were M.I.A. Butler's performance has regressed in the last two games where he's starting to show some fatigue. He's getting no lift on his jumpers and drives and it shows where Boston had blocked his shot 10 times in this series. Boston has also found a way to slow down Adebayo with the length of Robert Williams and the experience of Al Horford.  Martin, Max Strus, Vincent and Duncan Robinson are not enough to defeat a more athletic Boston team even without Malcolm Brogdon. Tatum will go bonkers at home in Game 7.

Rating: 2 Units

With the series starting to trend back in Boston's direction, there's no doubt that the Celtics will be able to force a game seven. Beyond the depth advantages, this is a team that has shown playoff success on the road this postseason. For Miami, being without Vincent would be a massive issue, especially considering how strong he is on both ends. The last few games have seen Boston finding success again from three-point range and if that continues in this one, the Heat won't stand a chance. Additionally, Miami is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up loss for more than 10 points. For Boston, they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Heat in Miami.

Rating: 2 Units

This series is over, for all intents and purposes, but I just can't see the Lakers getting swept. Veterans like James and Davis are too proud to let themselves get swept in front of Jack and the rest of their home crowd. The Nuggets are just a better team, and have been all season, and they'll make this interesting, but the Lakers will pull this one out down the stretch. The Nuggets are just 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. But look for a gentleman's sweep and for this thing to end in game 5 back in Denver. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics are inexplicably three-point favorites in this one. What does Miami have to do to get some respect? I just don't see how you can favor the Celtics in this one, given that the Heat have not lost at home so far in the playoffs. The Celtics are the higher seed and the more talented team, but I have no confidence in their ability to close out a game in crunch time, especially against this Heat team, which has come up big time after time. The Celtics are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 meetings versus the Heat. The Celtics could possibly win this but it would be only by a bucket late. Take the Heat getting the points.

Rating: 2 Units

I picked the Heat to cover in game 1 but I honestly did not expect them to actually win the game. Now they are 9 point underdogs and again, that feels like a lot. While I fully expect the Celtics to win in this game -- they have to or they are pretty much done. But Miami is not the type of team you blow out -- and 9 points is a lot. I just can't see the Celtics winning by double digits here. Miami won't shoot 52% from three again but they will play good enough defense and make enough big shots to keep this game close down the stretch. The Celtics will survive, but the Heat will cover. Take Miami getting the points.

Rating: 2 Units

For the third time in four years, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are squaring off in the Eastern Conference finals. Miami won the first go around in 2020 while the Celtics took care of business last year. Boston has had a tendency to play loose at home in the playoffs, and coming off that historic game 7 win, I see them having a letdown here. Miami will be rested and ready to go, looking to steal one here. In the four meeting between the two this year, three were decided by less than the spread for this game. This spread seems too big, so take the Heat here getting the points.

Rating: 2 Units

In many sports, particularly the NBA, there has traditionally been a situation where a team has to get over that hump and beat their perennial rivals after many unsuccessful attempts in the past. All past champions have had to get over that hump, just go back over the years. For the Sixers, that hump has been the Celtics, which have owned them. Is this the series where they put that demon to rest? Maybe. But I just have to believe that the Celtics are too good and too proud to go out like that. Boston brings in Thursday and finds a way to win. Take Boston.

Rating:  2 Units

The Heat have been beasts against the spread, going  7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. That includes all four games of this series. Also, the Heat are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in New York. Likewise, the Knicks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games overall. I have to stick with the battle-tested Heat in this one to continue their streak of ATS wins. They have been here before and know how to win on the road. Now, I actually think the Knicks find a way to pull this game out, but it will be a slim margin and the Heat will cover. Take Miami here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nuggets are primed to get back into the win column as they return home and there's little doubt that they'll return to their games one and two form. Denver has been dominant at home this season and considering how strong their depth has been in those home games, that is sure to be a massive advantage in this one. They won't let Booker and Durant continue to beat them and with little help beyond those two on Phoenix, keeping pace will be difficult for the Suns. Additionally, Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics have largely outplayed the Sixers in this series, yet here we are, tied at 2 games apiece. The series shifts back to Boston and after a bitter, bitter defeat on Sunday afternoon in game 4, the Celtics will come out fired up and focused. They went from taking complete control of this series and having a chance to close it out to now facing a critical game where a loss would result in an elimination game in Philly. After losing game 5 at home to the Bucks in the second round last year, and needing to win games 6 and 7 to advance, I can't see history repeating itself here. Take the Celtics here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Warriors might not win this game outright but they will find a way to be in it going into the final seconds. Curry continues to be elite but he'll find a way to get the supporting cast far more involved in this one. Steve Kerr did a great job after Davis' game-one dominance to make adjustments and there's no doubt that he'll be able to find a way to disrupt him again in game four. The supporting cast showed up for the Lakers in game three but given their own inconsistencies, it'll be expected to see a drop-off, especially with confidence high. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss.

Rating: 2 Units

This series is over, I believe. The Heat are just the better team right now and they have mostly dominated this series. The one game the Knicks won, it was home in a must-win game and they still barely won. I just don't see the Knicks being able to beat the Heat in Miami. The Knicks will keep it close because they play good defense and because this is another must-win game. But unlike Game 2 at Madison Square Garden, they won't be able to out Game 4 at the Kaseya Center in Miami.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics lost focus in game 1 in a game they thought they were going to win easily. We saw a different, more focused team in games 2 and 3. The fact of the matter is, the Celtics are the superior team. They tend to get upset at home because they lose focus, but on the road, as we have seen the past few years, they really lock in and get focused and a focused Celtics team is hard to beat. This will be another close game but I like the Celtics to execute down the stretch as they just have too many weapons that can hurt you with a big shot. Take the Celtics.

Rating: 2 Units

The best players on both of these teams are listed as questionable, so, obviously, if one or both, are out, that could change things dramatically. But I'm going to assume both Brunson and Butler play. and they are going to be close to full strength. That said, I have to give the Heat the advantage here. This will be a close game, as both teams play excellent defense and tend to keep games close. But, given that the Heat almost won in NYC without Butler, I like them to take care of business in their first game at home. Take the Heat.

Rating: 2 Units

Denver might be hitting the road but they have a great chance to make it a 3-0 series lead and will at least keep it close in this one. They have far too much depth for Phoenix to run away with the game, even at home. Jokic and Murray continue to be one of the best duos in the league and their ability to dictate the game and generate efficient offense, will keep them within a possession without a doubt. Expect the offensive and defensive glass to be key as well, especially considering how strong the Nuggets have looked in that department. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Friday games and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. The Suns, on the other hand, are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference semifinals and are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings against Denver.

Rating: 2 Units

The idea of the Lakers winning two in a row in such a short time frame, at the Chase Center, doesn't add up, as the Warriors will come away with the win to even the series. The Lakers had a great gameplan in using Lebron in unique ways but the Warriors now have that tape and there's no doubt that the defense will be better prepared. The frontcourt mismatch was expected to land in the Lakers' favor but with the way Looney has been playing, there's no doubt both teams have the ability to hit the offensive and defensive glass. Expect Golden State's depth to be too much for LA in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games, while the Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Golden State may only have one day off since their impressive win over the Kings but their ability to build off of that momentum will be crucial to them grabbing the win. Curry and Thompson have massive matchup advantages, while Looney has impressed over the last few weeks and casts some doubt over how much Davis might be able to dominate the frontcourt for the Lakers. This will be a close one but the perimeter shooting for Golden State will prove to be a massive difference in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last ten home games against a team with a losing road record.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jimmy Butler injury looms large and given how much he has met to this team, his absence would be too much to overcome for this team. The Heat have struggled on the road overall this season and grabbing a win for the second-straight night in Madison Square Garden will be asking too much. For the Knicks, they have a few injuries of their own that they're worrying about but with their scoring depth at hand, finding success on the offensive end will extend this game and make things difficult for Miami to keep pace. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two sides.

Rating: 2 Units

Murray forged his playoff reputation in the 2020 Orlando bubble with multiple 50-point games to lead Denver to the Western Conference finals, and this postseason, his first since that run three years ago, he has again become the team's catalyst. He had 34 points -- including six 3-pointers -- to spark the Nuggets' relatively easy win on Saturday night. He has scored 34 or more points in half of Denver's six playoff games this year, taking a lot of the offensive burden off Jokic, who had to carry the team in two short playoff runs in each of the two previous postseason trips. While some might be surprised at how the Nuggets manhandled the Suns on Saturday night, Murray is not. The Suns also have to figure out a way to stop Murray. Contesting shots wasn't a problem in Game 1, so one strategy will be to deny him the ball as much as possible. The Nuggets have been stellar at home, posting a 34-7 record there during the regular season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics will roll in Monday's matchup and with the advantages across the board, there's no doubt that they'll start this series strong. Being without Embiid is going to be too much for the 76ers to overcome, on both ends of the court. The 76ers will match the scoring to keep pace with Tatum and Brown, let alone one of the deepest backcourts in the league. Their frontcourt will also have the advantage against Paul Reed. Add in a road game and have to shake some rust off, and it makes sense that this one is determined to be a double-digit win for Boston. Additionally, according to covers.com, Boston is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning straight-up record, are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings against the 76ers in Boston, and is 5-0 ATS against the 76ers in the last five meetings.

Rating: 2 Units

We’re looking at a Miami team that completely flipped the script based on the regular season. The Heat were dead last in scoring offense in the regular season but they lead the postseason field in that department heading into this game. Miami was devastating from beyond the arc against the Bucks but they are facing a Knicks team that turned back the clock defensively in the opening round. New York turned games into rock fights and slowed things down to a ridiculously snail-like pace. The Knicks held the Cavaliers to 44.2% shooting from the floor and 32.7% from three-point range in the opening round. Butler will need more help in this series if the Heat hope to advance. Give the advantage to the Knicks as they prevail in front of an amped-up crowd.

Rating: 2 Units

Phoenix was clicking on all cylinders offensively in the opening round against the Clippers but they may find a little stiffer challenge here against the Nuggets. The Suns were extremely proficient from the perimeter against LA but the Nuggets held Minnesota to 34.8% shooting from beyond the arc in the series. Booker was electric in the first round but he will have to step up and put those kinds of numbers up again. How the Suns defend Jokic and his versatility is going to be a critical factor in this series. Phoenix went 17-24 on the road this season in the regular season so their two road wins over the Clippers were a bit of a surprise. Meanwhile, Denver was 34-7 at home in the regular season and 3-0 in the postseason. The altitude is a major factor and that carries the Nuggets to a hard-fought win in Game 1.

Rating: 2 Units

The Grizzlies had the second best record in the West while the Lakers needed a late run to even make the play-in tournament. Yet, it seems like most people are favoring the Lakers. Maybe they are right as the Lakers are up 3-2 and have a chance to close it out at home. I think, ultimately, they get it done here. I just cannot see James letting this series go back to Memphis with an opportunity to end it in LA. Also, the Grizzlies are 0-4 against the spread in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles and 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 meetings with the Lakers overall. Take the Lakers here.

Rating: 2 Units

I just don't think the Kings are ready to go down, and they certainly won't go down without a fight. They showed that they can go toe to toe with the Warriors in the Chase Center, as they should have won game 4 but blew it late. That near miss will be top of mind Friday night. Of the five games played thus far, three of them have been decided by less than 7 points and another has been decided by 8 points. So these games have pretty much all been close, with all going down to the wire. Fox should be ready to go and I like the Kings to keep it close enough to cover. Take the Kings getting the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hawks are riding a wave of momentum from the game five win and even if they don't win game six, they have all the tools and confidence to take it to within one possession. Not only are they at home but they also welcome Murray into the fold as well, which will give them plenty of offensive options beyond just Young. The Celtics have been solid but with the frontcourt struggling, the Hawks have been able to dominate on the offensive and defensive glass, which is a trend bound to continue in this close one. Additionally, the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday games.

Rating: 2 Units

After Monday's disheartening and shocking loss, I fully expect to see an angry, focused Bucks team. They have no choice, because a loss ends their season -- and that would be embarrassing as they are the top seed and had the best record in the NBA. Giannis was great on Monday and that's a great sign. There is no way he lets his team lose at home. Middleton and Holiday were subpar and you can bet that Giannis will light a fire under them and they will bounce back with big games at home. This one has all the earmarks of a Milwaukee blowout, as Miami focuses on the game 6 closeout at home. Take the Bucks here giving up the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Grizzlies might be at home but the Lakers have already shown that they can muster up a performance strong enough to win on the road. Add in Lebron and Anthony Davis dominating on both ends and it's asking far too much of the Grizzlies to match that expected output. Morant is elite but without a ton of help in the scoring department, it's difficult to see an avenue where they keep pace with the Lakers. Add in injuries to the frontcourt and it's clear they are missing that advantage on the offensive and defensive glass. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.

Rating: 2 Units

What exactly do the Clippers have left to play for? With Kawhi Leonard out and Paul George still sidelined, LA doesn't have a fighter's chance of advancing. The motivation to keep the score respectable isn't there, even in a closeout game. Russell Westbrook's hustle will go unappreciated if he's asked to carry too much of the offensive load, which isn't his forte. Phoenix has been on its A-game since dropping game one, beating Los Angeles inside-out. In game four, the Suns scored 48 points in the paint and outrebounded the Clippers 49-33 with 14 offensive rebounds. They also hit 9 of 22 shots from three (40.9%). While this is a large spread, I believe it's just. The Clippers, 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games playing on two days of rest, aren't suited for a battle in the valley on Tuesday. If this game's even close for more than a quarter, I'll be surprised. The Suns have the killer instinct required to put away a down and desperate Clippers team.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota won't win this game but this series has shown that they'll at least be able to keep thing interesting and close in this game four showdown. The big men on Minnesota have had their way the last few games and their ability to improve this group's rebounding on both ends is sure to help. Anthony Edwards is the top scorer in this game and his ability to be explosive gives them another dimension towards keeping things close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Timberwolves are 29-7 ATS in the last 33 meetings in Denver.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lakers are excelling on defense in this series, anchored by Davis. Los Angeles is giving up only 106.0 points per 100 possessions to Memphis through three games, and the Lakers lead the playoffs with 8.7 blocked shots per game. The Lakers are also securing almost 73% of available defensive rebounds and yielding only 19.0 free throw attempts per game. Los Angeles is allowing 42.4% shooting from the field and 33.3% from 3-point range, and the Lakers have been operating at a high level on defense for an extended period. Los Angeles was a top-five defensive team in the NBA after the All-Star break, giving up only 1.11 points per possession, and the Lakers led the league in free throw prevention (20.8 attempts per game) during the regular season. In addition, the Lakers finished No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point defense (34.4%) in 2022-23, with top-10 marks in defensive rebound rate (72.3%) and field goal percentage allowed (46.9%) for the season.

Rating: 2 Units

The big game for Denver was game 3 to essentially put the Timberwolves away. Since an 0-3 deficit is virtually a death knell for a team, Denver may take the foot off the gas a bit here while Minnesota will be focused on not being swept and getting at least one win. Make no mistake Denver will end this in 5 back in Denver, but Minnesota finds a way to win here at home on Sunday night. Also, the Timberwolves are 18-8 against the spread in their last 26 Sunday games. Take the Timberwolves here getting the points.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a great opportunity to lean heavily on a Celtics team that has a huge talent edge over the Hawks. Boston spent far too much of game three trying to outscore the Hawks rather than dig in defensively. Atlanta dominated the glass against what appeared to be a disinterested Boston front line. Boston failed to record a blocked shot for the first time in the series and the league's fifth-best defensive unit allowed Atlanta to shoot 56%. Look for Boston to make the necessary adjustments in game four to gain back control against an Atlanta team that was given free rein to drive to the basket for easy buckets in game three. I expect to see a heavy dose of Celtics defense in game three and a comfortable Boston win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nets blew their best opportunity to make a series of things as they had the 76ers on the ropes only to let it slip away. After all, Embiid was floundering, Harden was ejected and they led by six after three quarters before falling apart. That 11-1 game-ending run that Brooklyn gave up was the continuation of a trend that we saw all too often in the regular season from the Nets. Philadelphia showed their grit with their tough play down the stretch as Maxey willed them to rally down the stretch, scoring 10 of his points in the fourth quarter. That loss has to deflate the Nets a bit and it’s impossible to back a team that is 0-7 against their opponent this season. Give this one to the 76ers as they close out the series and advance to the second round.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nuggets have won three straight games and four of their last five games against the Timberwolves. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 113 points per game in their last three games while making 50 percent of their shots. They rebounded the ball aggressively during that span and averaged more than 11 offensive boards per game, so expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities. The Timberwolves have struggled defensively this season and they’re giving up more than 114 points per game at home, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Nuggets in this game. The Timberwolves have lost three of their last four games. They struggled offensively during that stretch, scoring less than 105 points per game. Their rebounding also dropped off, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities against the Nuggets. They’ve also been careless with the ball at home, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Nuggets, who average more than seven steals per game. The Nuggets are playing very well defensively, holding opponents under 100 points per game in their last three games, and won’t have trouble keeping Minnesota’s offense in check. Go with Denver to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

The New York Knicks are led by Tom Thibodeau, who has a career 26-37 playoff record. Although the record may not seem overly impressive, that's 63 games of playoff experience and eight appearances under his belt. On the other side, the playoffs are still relatively fresh territory for Cleveland Cavaliers head coach JB Bickerstaff. Bickerstaff's only other head coaching playoff experience was in 2016, when his Houston Rockets lost to the Warriors in five games in the first round. Bickerstaff lost two play-in tournament games last season with the Cavs and overall is 0-3 in road playoff games in his career. Donovan Mitchell has playoff experience, but this will still be a tough spot for young Cavs teams entering Madison Square Garden. Cleveland was 3-13 straight up as a road underdog this season, and I don't see that translating over well in their first road playoff test here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Suns swept a pair of road games against the Clippers this season and they'll grab the win in this one as well. Injuries will be the difference between the two sides, especially as the Clippers continue to be without George. The Suns core continues to get more and more time together and considering they have two of the most electric scorers in the league at their disposal, that is likely to help them lead the way. Add in plenty of length on the perimeter and size in the frontcourt, and there isn't much reason to think that they can't dominate both ends. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Suns are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two in LA and are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall.

Rating: 2 Units

Draymond Green just can't keep his emotions in check and that has cost the Warriors throughout his career, as he has been absent before from big games like this one because of his actions on the court. I think the Warriors will hold on here for the win, just because I have complete faith in Steph Curry to not let his team down. Plus, the Warriors are like night and day when playing at home and on the road. They are great at home and awful on the road. The home crowd here will push them to a win, but the scrappy Kings will cover. Take Sacramento getting the points.

Rating: 2 Units

With all eyes glued to the status of Giannis, it's actually the injury woes for Miami that will make this game fall in Milwaukee's favor. The Heat will be without their top perimeter threat in Herro and could be without one of their most experienced backcourt pieces in Lowry. For the Bucks, the supporting cast isn't going to be a shocked in Wednesday's showdown to have carry much more of workload, though if Giannis can go, that'll only increase their likelihood to win with ease anyway. The Bucks were one of the best teams in the league at home, while Miami was one of the worst road teams of the playoff teams, which will further ensure things swing back into Milwaukee's favor in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

With how New York has performed this season in this matchup, there's no reason to think that they won't at least keep things competitive in this one. Their balance in the frontcourt and backcourt is crucial, especially when compared to Cleveland's struggles last game. New York's depth seems to be an advantage but having to win two games in a row overall might be too much to ask. Expect the Knicks to focus on the defensive end and slowing the game down, which might not serve them well in the result but will allow them to stay right within striking distance as the game comes to a close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win, while also sitting 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Cleveland overall and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland.

Rating: 2 Units

Until they got sloppy in the second half, the Celtics' offense was able to get whatever they wanted. Brown and Tatum's drives to the basket went unchallenged and the Celtics consistently found themselves with open looks from long range. Atlanta's inability to consistently shoot the three will ultimately do them in against a Celtics team that shoots the 3pt shot at the second-highest rate in the NBA. The Hawks, for their part, shoot the highest percentage of two-point shots in the NBA. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Boston's Al Horford, and Rob Williams III consistently met players at the rim and altered their shots on Saturday. The pair combined for three of Boston's seven shot blocks in the game. Look for Boston to establish both Brown and Tatum going to the basket, which will again open up their shooting from long range.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nets simply don't have the star power to keep up with this 76ers team, especially not on the road. They have some fantastic players, but nobody on that team is going to take over a game the way that Joel Embiid or James Harden can. Playing on the road against a 76ers team that's superb at home, the Nets don't stand a chance. We've seen them fall to Philly five times already between the regular season and game one, and this game should go the same way. The 76ers control the game and take a 2-0 lead in the series.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota has at least sharpened their edge as they have played twice since the end of the regular season. That is a double-edged sword as it has helped keep the rust off but it has added extra wear and tear to key players in the rotation. Denver was on cruise control over the final month or so of the season as they held the advantage for both the Northwest Division and the top spot in the Western Conference. That gave the Nuggets the ability to rest some of their key players, like two-time reigning MVP Jokic, and prepare for the postseason run. Denver was a sparkling 34-7 at home this season while the Timberwolves were 20-21 as the road team on the year. Give the Nuggets the upper hand in this contest as the rest factor works in their favor.

Rating: 2 Units

It will be interesting to see how the Heat chooses to defend Antetonkoumnpo. They could defend him with Adebayo but that might force the team's best rebounder to the bench with foul trouble. Butler, arguably the Heat's best defender, doesn't have the length to cover the Greek Freak and I'm not sure Spoelstra will want to wear out his best offensive player by covering Antetonkoumnpo all night. With that in mind, I like the Bucks to dominate the first game. Milwaukee exposed the Heat's other defenders this season on the perimeter, nailing over 18 3pt field goals per matchup. Miami will adjust but that adjustment will likely come after a substantial game-one loss. This will be the first time all season that the Heat will face the Bucks at full strength and the combination of Antetonkoumnpo and Middleton will be too much for them. Don't discount the ability of Holiday to take his man in the paint for easy buckets as well. Beyond Adebayo and Butler, the Heat do not possess quality man-to-man defenders.

Rating: 2 Units

This game is basically a pick 'em, with the Kings installed as only a 1 point favorite. So, I really can't see the Kings, who have not been in the playoffs since 2006, not winning this first game. The fans, not having had a playoff game in their building in 17 years, will be raucous, particularly since it is against their biggest rival, the Warriors. They will like nothing more than to see the Kings "light the beam" on top of the Golden 1 Center. These teams know each other, so there won't be any surprises, and they play similar styles, so I have to go with the home team. Take the Kings to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics provide several difficult matchups for a Hawks' team that struggles against athletic wings. Both Tatum and Brown will be able to get what they want both going to the rim and on the perimeter and that will force the Hawks to send help to both matchups. This will create tons of good looks from long range for a Celtics team that has thrived on the 3pt shot. The Celtics averaged over 22 3pt field goals per game against Atlanta this season, shooting over 46%, which indicates the Hawks' difficulty with keeping up with the Celtics' inside-out offense. Young will get his points in this series but Boston is one of the few teams in the NBA that can match up multiple players, Marcus Smart and White, to make him work for those points. Murray was not as effective against the Celtics this year thanks to Boston's length at the wing position. Williams III can neutralize Capella on the glass as well and the Hawks simply don't have the depth to match Boston.

Rating: 2 Units

This one is an absolute no brainer. As it stands right now, the Suns look like they are going to rest all of their star players  - Durant, Paul, Booker and Ayton. So, expect a lot of big minutes from bench players. The Clippers should be playing everyone, because they will need this to lock down a top 6 seed in the West and avoid the play-in. The Lakers and Warriors are both playing at the same time. There is some question as to whether teams will avoid the fifth seed to avoid the Suns, but no one wants to be 7th either. I love the Clippers here. Take the Clippers to win and cover.

Rating: 2 Units

Los Angeles has covered the spread in six straight home games against Portland, and I do not expect that trend to end on Saturday afternoon. The Trail Blazers enter this game with no motivation, as they are resting almost all of their key players and are already eliminated from playoff contention. Los Angeles is as motivated as any team in the NBA, as it needs a win to avoid the play-in tournament. The Clippers have won 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams and should continue their dominance on Saturday. Portland has only picked up one win in its last eight games and is not playing competitive basketball without Lillard.

Rating: 2 Units

Throw out all the stats and trends for this game, because you are going to see two teams playing deep bench players. It will basically be like a summer league game. So, any trends I might be able to dig up would not be relevant as they don't pertain to the players who are going to be out on the court for this one. So, I'm going to defer here to the home team. The Jazz are in front of their home fans, the ones that show up for this meaningless game, that is, and that should be enough to push them to a win. Take the Jazz here to win and cover.

Rating: 2 Units

I don't love backing the Mavs, but it's now or never for them. With Dallas still competing for a play-in spot and the Bulls' postseason hopes already decided, the Mavericks have a strong advantage. Expect to see the Bulls give a lot of minutes and opportunities to players outside of their big three. I expect Chicago to play hard, but they have dropped two straight games by double-digits, and with Dallas' season on the line, I expect them to pull away for a big win.

Rating: 2 Units

Only one of the two teams in this matchup has anything to gain from a win. Toronto will trot out their regular lineup in this one while I expect the Celtics to rest more than at least one of their key players. Toronto has a lot to gain by potentially catching the Hawks in the standings. The Raptors are just 14-26 on the road this season but a far more respectable 26-14 at home. Look for Toronto to control the pace and take advantage of a depleted Celtics roster.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams have struggled of late and that is why we enter the final days of the season with one team fighting to hang on for the final playoff spot in the West and the other fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. Injury issues and the trades that Utah made at the deadline may have bolstered their chances for the future but made things tougher for making the postseason. Oklahoma City is at as close to full strength as they have been in the last couple of months here and they have to be motivated. The Thunder took the last two meetings between the teams last month, both at home: they make it three straight and eliminate the Jazz from playoff contention, with a win here.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia has been excellent at home of late, winning five of its last six games. The 76ers have gone 29-11 in their 40 home games overall this season, and Miami has only covered the spread once in its last six road games. The Heat have not been in their best form overall, covering the spread once in their last five contests. They are on the road for the second straight game and do not have the firepower to keep pace with Philadelphia. That was on full display when these teams met last month, as the 76ers rolled to a 119-96 win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nuggets have won five of their last seven games and two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 112 points per game on the road. They do a good job finding the open man and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass in their last three games, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in their last three games and won’t give the Rockets a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Rockets aren’t very good defensively and gave up more than 120 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Nuggets in this game. The Rockets have lost eight of their last nine games and three of their last four home games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 114 points per game in their last three games. Their ball movement isn’t very good, but they’ve been attacking the offensive glass relentlessly in recent games, so expect them to get extra-scoring chances. They have been very careless with the ball, even at home, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Nuggets, who averaged more than eight steals per game in their last three games. The Nuggets are playing very well defensively, holding their last three opponents under 107 points per game, and won’t have trouble keeping Houston’s offense in check. Go with Denver to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

The Boston Celtics take on Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers in Eastern Conference play today. The 76ers are 8-6 against the rest of their division. Philadelphia averages 115.1 points while outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per game. The Celtics are 9-4 in division play. Boston is second in the Eastern Conference with 35.6 defensive rebounds per game led by Jayson Tatum averaging 7.8. The teams meet for the fourth time this season. The Celtics won 110-107 in the last matchup on Feb. 26. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 26 points, and Embiid led the 76ers with 41 points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Connecticut won on Saturday night with a bruising effort against Miami, leading from start to finish. The Canes were no match for the Huskies and it was clear from the opening tip. The Huskies have won five consecutive games straight-up and are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten overall.

Rating: 2 Units

Milwaukee lost to Boston on Thursday, but that may be good news for Bucks fans, as this team has not lost back-to-back games since January 12-14. They have been consistently the best team in the NBA over the last 10 weeks, and that is bad news for a 76ers team that enters this game as losers of their last three games on the road. The Milwaukee defense has been struggling of late, but they are averaging 124.8 points per game over their last five, and Philadelphia simply does not take enough shots to take advantage of the defensive lapses of the Bucks. Philadelphia has won the last two meetings between these teams, including earning a three-point victory over Milwaukee on March 4. Look for the Bucks to get a little revenge.

Rating: 2 Units

Los Angeles is currently 7th in the Western Conference playoff standings and would take part in the play-in part of the postseason but is within 1 ½  games of sixth place which would mean they would not have to take part in the play-in. At the same time, Los Angeles is only 1 ½ games in front of the 10th and final spot for postseason qualification in the West. Therefore, the Lakers have far more incentive to win than Houston, which has been eliminated from playoff contention and is last in the Western Conference. Houston's offense and defense has struggled all season as the Rockets are next to last in scoring and second from last in points allowed. Los Angeles has covered the spread in four of its last five, while Houston has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five.

Rating: 2 Units

The Miami Hurricanes' first-ever romp into the Final Four, including redemption from last season's Elite Eight loss, has been a great story. The Hurricanes have a terrific backcourt and highly skilled role players that have helped the team average over 80 points per game in the tournament. Unfortunately, the ride ends here. UConn is playing at a level that I haven't seen since the 1990 UNLV Runnin' Rebels stormed through the tournament on the way to the National Championship. The Huskies have an average margin of victory of over 21 points, are shooting the ball at a 50% clip, and hold the opposition to just over 35% shooting.  This team can beat you from long range, averaging over 10 made 3pt field goals per game in the tournament, or in the paint, averaging 37.5 points in the paint per game. UConn will turn the ball over on occasion but this Miami team is not built to cause a high number of turnovers, averaging just over 10 forced turnovers per game in the tournament. And, if the Hurricanes start slowly, they will be in major trouble. The average score in the second half of the Huskies' games in the tournament is 46-27. Yes, the Huskies are beating teams by an AVERAGE of nearly 20 points in the second half of their tournament games. UConn will wear Miami down with too much size, too much defensive pressure and just, and just too much. The Huskies will roll into the NCAA Final on Monday night.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is not in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, like Dallas is, and has several key injury designations heading into this pivotal matchup. Three Heat players, Nikola Jovic (back), Kyle Lowry (knee), and Bam Adebayo (hip), are hurt and questionable to play. Only Frank Ntilikina (knee) is questionable to play for Dallas. The betting trends also suggest the Mavericks are the team to have faith in. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games playing on two days' rest. Taking all of this into account, including Dallas' dominant showing versus Miami earlier this season, I'll bet on the Mavs.

Rating: 2 Units

The Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win and 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. I'm a firm believer in San Diego State's defense, which caused a world of problems for the Crimson Tide and Blue jays. The Aztecs grind you down for the entire shot clock and waste no energy on the offensive end. They're capable of slowing down the Owls' offense and holding their own on the boards. Florida Atlantic will make this an exciting game, but like Creighton, it will fall short down the stretch.

Rating: 2 Units

Thursday’s games have been excluded from the analysis, and the 51-24 Denver Nuggets hosted the New Orleans Pelicans, searching for their fifth consecutive victory. Over their previous four showings, the Nuggets have beaten the Brooklyn Nets 108-102, Washington Wizards 118-104, Milwaukee Bucks 129-106, and Philadelphia 76ers 116-111. Last Monday, Nikola Jokic posted a triple-double of 25 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists to lift his team over the 76ers, who missed both Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Nuggets shot 50.6% from the field and posted a terrific 34/12 assist-to-turnover ratio. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Atlanta Hawks have won two of their last three games including a home win against the Cavaliers on Tuesday. The Brooklyn Nets have been hit or miss recently. They have dropped six of their last eight games including disappointing losses against the Kings and Magic. They only covered twice in that eight-game span. The Hawks continue to dazzle offensively, averaging a remarkable 127 points in their last five games. Atlanta is hot from three-point range where they have connected on 38.6% of their threes in their last three games. This is key as the Nets give up plenty of threes, ranking 25th in the NBA in three-point defense. The Nets have not been reliable at home, going 1-4 in their last five home games, covering just once.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder have won four of their last seven games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 119 points per game in their last three games. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 80 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, grabbing more than 11 offensive rebounds per game on the road, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in recent games, and won’t give the Pacers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Pacers have one of the worst defenses in the league and they’re playing worse at the moment, giving up more than 135 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Thunder in this game. The Pacers have lost six of their last seven games and three straight home games. Despite their slump, they are playing well offensively, scoring more than 120 points per game in their last three games. Their rebounding dropped off in their last three games, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against the Thunder. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Thunder, who more than 10 steals per game in their last three games. Even though the Thunder have struggled defensively on the road, they played well in their last two road games and won’t have trouble keeping Indiana’s offense in check.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulls have been red hot lately, going 7-2 over their last nine and have gone 4-1 ATS over their last five, and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. Chicago is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams and is 4-1 ATS in the five meetings between these teams in Los Angeles. Chicago is playing on back-to-back nights which would seem to give the Clippers a big edge. However, this team is not as good without Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard is battling an injury as well. The Bulls should win this game outright, but look for them to cover the spread regardless.

Rating: 2 Units

The Utah Jazz (35-39) and Phoenix Suns (39-35) have a couple of things in common heading into the home stretch of the season. Both teams are still in the thick of it when it comes to the postseason. And both are trying to make do without key players. And like the Suns did Saturday night against Philadelphia, the Jazz come into Monday's matchup in Salt Lake City hoping to break a three-game losing streak. Utah came close to finding a way to win in Sacramento on Saturday despite missing its three leading scorers: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton. Consider that the Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah while the Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Rating: 2 Units

Brooklyn is playing the second game of a back-to-back here and their third game in four nights. The Nets have a bit of a depleted roster after dealing away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving ahead of the trade deadline. While the pieces the Nets got in return are solid players, they were secondary pieces on their previous teams. Dinwiddie was playing second fiddle to Luka Doncic in Dallas while Bridges and Johnson were on a Phoenix team with Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. There is no star player to lean on in crunch time for the Nets, which we saw was a problem in the loss to Cleveland Thursday. Orlando has hung around the playoff picture and have won three of their last four. The Magic has developed a decent rotation to work with and they have home court, along with a rest advantage. Give Orlando the edge in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

Despite the uncertainty of Disu's availability, I like the Longhorns in this matchup. Texas has been shooting the ball extremely well in the tournament and doing so both inside and beyond the arc. Texas is averaging 37 points in the paint per game thus far in the tournament. Miami, meanwhile, is averaging 29.3 points in the paint per game. The Hurricanes are much more reliant on the 3pt shot and Texas has held teams under 30% from long distance. The Longhorns are an impressive 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The Longhorns would be more vulnerable against a team that relied more on its inside play without Disu but they should be able to compensate for his loss against the perimeter-shooting Hurricanes. Texas has continued to overcome setbacks all season and they are up to the challenge in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

Creighton has played better than expected in the tournament, especially offensively. They have shot the lights out in their wins over Baylor and Princeton in their last two contests. One has to think that they will have a tougher time shooting the ball against an Aztecs team that held opposing teams to just 40.8% shooting from the floor this season. Depth is also an issue for the Blue Jays as we’ve seen them get a combined 16 points from their bench in their three tournament games, 14 of which have come from Farabello. If Creighton finds themselves in any kind of foul trouble, it’s going to be tough sledding. We just saw San Diego State upend Alabama in a game where Bradley finished with only six points. Look for him to bounce back and help the Aztecs advance to the Final Four. Consider that the Aztecs are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Rating: 2 Units

While this game is not necessarily critical to either team with both in a great position to earn the #1 seed in their respective conferences, the Nuggets would appear to have more motivation. Denver comes in well-rested after a recent road trip and the healthier of the two teams. Milwaukee is in the second game of a four-game trip, the final road trip of the season. The Bucks come in after playing in Utah on Friday night and, while they have been excellent this season in back-to-backs with a 9-1 record, staying healthy here will be more of a premium than getting the win. Denver, meanwhile, is 30-6 at home and 11 games over .500 at home ATS. Denver has won three out of its last four games after suffering through a four-game losing streak. The Nuggets are also 3-1 ATS in that time.

Rating: 2 Units

Gonzaga’s tendency to get off to a slow start makes the Bulldogs a terrifying betting option against a UConn team that is looking like the NCAA Tournament favorite right now. The Huskies have rolled through their first three games and have won all 15 of their non-conference games by double digits this season. Gonzaga is coming off an emotional game against UCLA, while UConn was able to cruise down the stretch, giving the Huskies an edge on Saturday night. They also have more size than Gonzaga in the paint, so this will likely be Timme’s worst game of the tournament. UConn has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games and is 12-1 in its last 13 games as a favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats outlasted the Spartans on Thursday evening, proving they belong among the nation's elite teams. This wasn't expected of K-State — it was picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll — but the Wildcats' mix of transfer players meshed as well as first-year head coach Jerome Tang hoped. To take the next step, though, Tang's team must show it hasn't gotten too full of itself. The Owls weren't predicted to be dancing on Saturday, but like their opponent, they have silenced doubters with their consistency. Florida Atlantic showed Tennessee the door on Thursday night with a stunning second-half performance, but it can't win with one half of solid play tomorrow. I predict Kansas State wins and covers the narrow spread, ending the Owls' historic run. The Wildcats have been battle-tested, advancing to the Elite Eight after enduring a rigorous Big 12 schedule. FAU has proven that it belongs, but it won't be able to overcome its talent disadvantages versus KSU. The Cats win with grit — something point guard Markquis Nowell clearly has. Kansas State didn't lose focus when Nowell hurt his ankle versus Michigan State and won't take its eye off the prize at MSG tomorrow. Bet the Wildcats to continue to roll against the overmatched Owls.

Rating: 2 Units

Musketeers’ head coach Sean Miller returned to Xavier this season where he coached from 2004 until 2009 before leaving for the desert in Arizona. There is no refuting Miller’s success in this event, as his 20-11 SU mark would attest. Better yet, it’s been Miller Time when his troops are dogging it in The Dance, going 8-1 ATS overall when taking points. However, Xavier’s Achilles’ Heel in this contest is its dismal Defensive Field Goal Percentage (44.1 – only Gonzaga here is worse). Despite its glaring weakness on the glass, with Big 12 tournament champions standing 11-3 overall since 2000 in Sweet 16 games, and UT 20-4 outright against .750 or fewer foes this season, we’ll toss our hat in the ring with the Horns. 

Rating: 3 Units

Blue Jays’ head coach Greg McDermott is only 2-6 SUATS against foes off a win of greater than 4 points in this tourney. Interestingly, double digit favorites in the Sweet 16, favored by the most points in this round, are 18-3 SU, but have covered in only 7 of the 21 contests (7-12-2 ATS), including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win. In addition, double-digit dogs in Sweet 16 games are 15-6 ATS since 1999, including 11-1 ATS when coming off a SU underdog win (10-0 ATS versus sub .880 foes). In fact, teams off a pair of upset wins in the first two rounds are 14-5 ATS in Sweet 16 rounds dating back to 2011, including 7-0 ATS when taking 8 or more points today. 

Rating: 2 Units

This is all about identifying value as these teams get set to meet for the second game in a row. Houston covered as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday, so many bettors are going to be surprised that the line is 1.5 points larger on Friday. However, Memphis was playing without Brooks in the first matchup and Morant was playing for the first time in weeks. Brooks will return from his one-game suspension on Friday, and Morant should be in better form after knocking off the rust. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight home games and have won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams.

Rating: 2 Units

Houston, it should be noted they struggled mightily against quality opposition this season – read: .750 or greater foes – going just 1-7 ATS. Ironically, each of Sampson’s last five losses in The Big Dance have been against foes of a similar ilk (Villanova last season). Miami is undersized, but the Hurricanes have elite guards and a dynamic small-ball big man in Norchad Omier. He's among a group of four Miami players averaging 13 or more points per game. A three-guard attack, led by ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, could be a handful, particularly if Houlton’s star G Marcus Sasser is not 100% back from his groin injury

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

What has been overlooked this season, is Bama was the No. 20 in the AP preseason poll. Safe to say they have been major overachievers to the point they were awarded the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s tournament. And starting today they own the easiest path to the Final Four with only No. 5, 6 and perhaps 15 seeds in their path. They also bring the best Rebound Margin, and second-best Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Scoring Margins of all teams still remaining in this tournament. San Diego State enters with the second worst Offensive Field Goal Percentage (uh oh). The Aztecs are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2014, and third time overall. Seven players average at least 20.0 minutes per game this season, but only one player averages double-digits in scoring. Ironically. SDSU was No. 19 in the AP preseason Top 25, ahead of Alabama. With MWC teams a shivery 3-31-1 ATS in their last 35 outright losses in this tourney, you know exactly what to do.

Rating: 2 Units

This should be a gladiator-type showdown between two of the nation’s premier players in power forwards Drew Timme of the Zags and the Bruins’ Jaime Jaquez Jr, and both teams rank in the Top Four in Scoring Margin. Be aware that No. 3 seeds in the third round of this event are just 28-40 ATS since 1990, including 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when facing a foe seeking revenge. The Bulldogs also sport the No. 219 team in the land in Defensive Field Goal Percentage, as opposed to UCLA’s No. 18 national rank in the same category. Therein lies your edge. Remember, since 1997 there have been four teams that entered the Sweet 16 round who lost the money in each of their first two rounds of the NCAA tourney and then met an avenging foe. They went 0-4 SUATS in those games.

Rating: 2 Units

CUSA programs are 0-4 SU in this round of the tournament, losing by an average margin of more than more than 10 PPG. Denting Tennessee’s stifling defense is priority one for the Owls if they hope to advance. The Volunteers rank 3rd in the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.2) while allowing opponents to shoot just 26.4% from outside the arc, the lowest mark in college basketball. You can poke holes all you want at coach Barnes and his tawdry 20-31 ATS record in this tournament but he’s only the second coach in school history to make multiple Sweet 16s. In the end the pedigree wins out, as it almost always does at this stage. Lay the points.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams have trended in different directions of late with Cleveland taking seven of their last nine games while the Nets have dropped four straight. Brooklyn made a pair of massive deals at the trade deadline, sending Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to Phoenix and Dallas, respectively. While Bridges, Johnson and Dinwiddie are good players, it takes time to incorporate new pieces into the rotation, which is made tougher when a player like Simmons is out of the mix. Brooklyn has had to try and rely on getting production from lesser pieces in an effort to remain competitive. That’s proved problematic as they entered Wednesday just half a game ahead of the Heat to avoid the play-in tournament. Cleveland is healthy and they just showed that they can handle the Nets in their own building. Take the Cavaliers here to sweep the two-game set.

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

This is familiar territory for the Razorbacks, reaching the Sweet 16 for the third straight season and taking aim at their third consecutive Elite 8 appearance. Getting here was not easy, though: CBS Sports reports that three Arkansas players fouled out in the Kansas game and two others finished with four fouls in the 72-71 upset. Then there’s a massive hangover awaits Arkansas, as teams in Sweet 16 games off an upset win over a No. 1 seed are just 4-7 SU and 3-7-1 ATS since 1996 when facing sub .790 opponents in this round. We think Connecticut is going to RULE the Razorbacks, going 24-6 SU and 21-9 ATS versus SEC foes of late (4-0 SUATS the last five seasons), including 6-1 SUATS against those coming off a SU underdog win. UConn is an outstanding 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS record this season in non-Big East battles tells us Arky will get counted out here – a notion seconded by the fact that UConn is 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in this tournament against foes coming off an NCAA tourney upset win as an underdog, including 9-0 SUATS versus No. 6 or lower seeds.

Rating: 2 Units

Izzo enters on a 1-6 SUATS run of late against Big 12 opponents, as well as 0-3 SUATS in this tournament against No. 3 or higher seeds when coming off a SU underdog win when his troops sport a sub .666 win percentage. The only bad news for Kansas State? No. 3 seeds in the Sweet 16 round are just 3-14 ATS when taking on .714 or fewer opponents. While Izzo stands 16-12 SU in this event versus higher seeded opposition, he’s just 2-4 SUATS in those same games when his troops own a .676 or less win percentage and are facing No. 3 or greater seeds. The bottom line to us is we love higher seeded dogs like KSU, and higher seeded dogs in this round are 11-6 ATS since 1990, including 8-2 SUATS when taking 2 or fewer points. 

Rating: 2 Units

It's hard to feel great about betting on the Rockets, but Houston is playing .500 ball over its last 10 games, and none of the previous four losses have been by more than 13 points. Memphis is a far better team, but Houston has not stopped playing hard, and I expect this to be a bit of a distracting night with Ja Morant back, and Dillion Brooks suspended. The Grizzlies will win this game, but I would not lay more than 10 points on the spread in this spot, regardless of how good they have been at home. Memphis will also face Houston again on Friday, so I would not be shocked to see a letdown here.

Rating: 2 Units

If previous performances are any indication, UAB should kill the Commodores in rebounding, particularly offensively which will lead to ample second-chance scoring opportunities. It nearly sank Vanderbilt against Michigan, and I think it will this time. The Blazers have a tougher defense than the Commodores and an offense that can keep up with them. Even on the road, I'm expecting UAB to win, and with the spread only at one point, the money line is the best option.

Rating: 2 Units

This will be a tough matchup for the Ducks, who could be without their top three players. Although it's tough to back a team in that situation, Oregon has been extremely impressive shorthanded through their first NIT wins. As impressive as the Ducks have been, I can see so many different scenarios playing out where the Badgers either win or keep this game within five points. Wisconsin has had some extremely close losses this season, including falling to Kansas by only one point earlier this season. Also, five of the most recent six losses for Wisconsin have either come in overtime or been decided by two points or less during regulation. Oregon is one of those teams that can make you look bad either way as a sports bettor. When the Ducks are on, they are very good, but they also have been inconsistent throughout the season.

Rating: 2 Units

New Orleans is in the thick of the playoff race while San Antonio is trying to lose games to try and get the first overall pick and turn their franchise around, which is why I like the Pelicans here to win and cover the large spread. Both New Orleans and the Spurs have struggled against the spread this season but San Antonio is 30-41 ATS which is third worst and as a road underdog, the Spurs are 11-22. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are 12-12 ATS which is much better than their overall ATS record. As well, this season, New Orleans is 3-0 against San Antonio with the average margin of victory being 15.3 PPG. The Pelicans' offense should have a field day against this Spurs defense which is arguably the worst in the NBA.

Rating: 2 Units

Brooklyn's having offensive issues and going up against the NBA's top defense. I know that Cleveland isn't the same on the road, but that sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Nets are reeling right now in general, and this is a tight spread against a tough team that's playing well. At this point of the season, Cleveland is better on both ends of the floor, and even if Jarrett Allen doesn't play that shouldn't change the outcome of this game. Take the Cavaliers on the spread while it's still only two points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Warriors come in slumping but the undisciplined Rockets should be just what the doctor ordered for them on Monday night. Golden State should feast on Houston's struggles to cover the perimeter and will be happy to play this game at an uptempo pace thanks to what should be a bevy of turnovers between the two teams. I am confident that the Warriors will see a major bounce-back game from the Splash Brothers on Monday night and pull away quickly from the hapless Rockets. Golden State is 9-1 in the last ten meetings with Houston and, with ten games left on the schedule, this is a must-win for the defending champs. The Rockets are also just 2-9 in the second game of back-to-back games this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The Knicks have been phenomenal lately, and even appear to have solved their issues at home. They've won eight of 10 at home after a 12-14 start in the Mecca. New York has also beaten the spread in their last three. Then there's Minnesota, who has lost ATS in four of six and owns a 15-20 record on the road (16-19-0 ATS). That's without mentioning they may not have Anthony Edwards or Rudy Gobert for this matchup, their top offensive and defensive player. This game is New York's to lose, and with how they've been playing lately, I don't believe they will. Take the Knicks to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

How does one bet against Philly at this point, given the run they are on. They have won 8 straight and 9 of their last 10 and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. They won their last three games on the road and are returning home for this one, so the appreciative Philly fans should give them an added boost. They then turn around and head out on the road again after this one, and that will be a tough stretch. It starts with Chicago again, at Chicago, and that could be a Philly loss. But for this one on Monday -- they will be happy to be home and they will take care of business. Take the Sixers to cover.

Rating: 2 Units

The Spartans have won five of their last six games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they played better in recent games, scoring more than 69 points per game in their last three games. Their rebounding was great during that span and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass, grabbing 12 offensive rebounds per game, so expect them to get a lot of second-chance scoring opportunities., They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Highlanders a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Highlanders usually play well defensively, but they weren’t as efficient in recent games, giving up at least 70 points in two of their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Spartans in this game. The Highlanders have lost four of their last seven games. They have struggled offensively on the road, scoring less than 70 points per game. They’ve struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. Their ball movement isn’t very good and they don’t rebound the ball as well as the Spartans, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Spartans. The Spartans are very good defensively and they played better in recent games, keeping their last three opponents under 65 points per game, so don’t expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Highlanders in this game. Go with San Jose State to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Looking at these teams, the greatest difference between them is on offense. They both play at a high tempo, rebounded well against their conference competition, and know how to stifle opposing offenses. However, Indiana State is typically efficient, hitting almost half of their shots and taking advantage of free throws. Eastern Kentucky is not, only hitting 43.5% of their field goals and missing nearly 35% of their free throws. Expect Indiana State's offense to make the difference in this one when they beat the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

TCU's offense was not their strength this season and had a few lulls on Friday, but overall their performance was impressive considering Arizona State's defense wreaked havoc on a lot of teams this season. That the Horned Frogs hit open threes and free throws could make them very dangerous going forward. Of course, Gonzaga's offense on Grand Canyon, but Grand Canyon's defense was barely 200th in adjusted efficiency this season. TCU's is much tougher at 23rd. Gonzaga's defense isn't great, and Timme's size could pose problems inside for TCU's offense, but I think if they play like Friday the Horned Frogs will take this game. Taking the points is safer though, so I'm going to roll with the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Does Baylor have anyone that can stop Ryan Kalkbrenner? Unlike NC State, they have the size, with starter Flo Thamba, but I don't think he's good enough to hang with Kalkbrenner. If he gets in foul trouble, Baylor's options are either a freshman or a size mismatch. Unlike certain schools, Creighton knows how to feed their big men when they've got a good matchup. Then there's Creighton's three-point shooting, which is due to improve significantly from their Thursday performance. Baylor's defense is much worse than Creighton's, and their offensive output won't be able to offset that against another dangerous offensive squad. The spread is only one point, so the best value is in taking Creighton to win straight up.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up win, 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Huskies impressed me on Friday, outscoring the Gaels by a wide margin in the second half. They'll own a rebounding advantage again on Sunday, earning extra possessions and holding the slow-paced Gaels to fewer possessions. Sanogo played like a monster on Friday (28 points and 13 boards) and won't be held back by this Gaels squad.

Rating: 2 Units

The Golden Eagles have won 10 straight games. They are very good offensively, scoring more than 79 points per game while making 49 percent of their shots. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 77 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They do a good job finding the open man and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Spartans a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Spartans usually play well defensively, but they struggled in recent games, giving up more than 69 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Golden Eagles in this game. The Spartans have won three of their last four games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 71 points per game in their last three games. But they struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws during that span. Their rebounding has been good and will keep them in this game, but they’ve been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Golden Eagles, who average more than nine steals per game. The Golden Eagles did a great job defensively in recent games, holding their last three opponents to 60 points per game, and won’t have trouble keeping Michigan State’s offense in check. Go with Marquette to cover the spread.