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Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-11-21	Heat v. Clippers -3.5		109-112	Loss	-110	11 h 3 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units After an overtime loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, the Heat have a quick turnaround to play again Thursday. To complicate matters, Jimmy Butler suffered a sprained ankle that will likely keep him out. Not only is he averaging 23.6 points per game, he’s one of the keys to their defense, averaging 2.1 steals with his ability to guard multiple positions. There’s just too much going against the Heat in this matchup.
11-11-21	CS-Fullerton v. San Jose State +6		76-78	Win	100	9 h 58 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units San Jose State wasn't good last season but has a new coach in Tim Miles and five Power 5 transfers. Cal State Fullerton fell 84-77 at Santa Clara on Tuesday. Fullerton probably wins but this spread is a few points too high. The Titans are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games as favorites.
11-11-21	Raptors v. 76ers -3.5		115-109	Loss	-110	3 h 8 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units No Joel Embiid again for the Sixers, but the Raptors aren't really built to take advantage of that in the paint -- plus, they are without Pascal Siakam and Khem Birch. The Sixers will get back second-leading scorer Tobias Harris from COVID protocols and are likely to get back Seth Curry from a one-game injury absence. That should be enough to cover against a Raptors team playing the second of a B2B and on a three-game skid.
11-11-21	Merrimack -3 v. NJIT		61-54	Win	100	6 h 7 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Look, I don't know much about NJIT -- their own laughable website doesn't even have a media guide or preview of the team this season. I do know the Highlanders were 7-12 last year and their best player, Zach Cooks, transferred to Hofstra. All the models are saying that NJIT is better than Merrimack, but I don't agree with what I do know. The Warriors reached the NEC title game last year and are one of only five teams in the country to return 99 percent of its point production from a season ago. Merrimack also has a game under its belt, beating something called Emerson (Ralph Waldo? Fittipaldi?) College on Tuesday. KenPom also ranks Merrimack quite a bit higher.
11-11-21	George Washington +18.5 v. Maryland		64-71	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Colonials won their first game despite a second-half collapse. They showed a lot of potential, especially on defense. They held the Red Flash to 38 percent shooting from the field. The Colonials' biggest issues were that they allowed 13 offensive rebounds and sent the Red Flash to the line 33 times. The Terrapins were a terrible free-throw shooting team last season. In their first game, they shot just 15 of 23 on free throws. George Washington's stingy defense should allow the Colonials to stay within the number.
11-11-21	Vermont +6 v. Northern Iowa		71-57	Win	100	7 h 0 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units KenPom ranks Vermont at 106 nationally and Northern Iowa 128. The Catamounts are annual contenders in the America East Conference -- they won their fifth straight regular-season title last year -- and had two players named to the preseason all-conference team in reigning America East Player of the Year Ryan Davis and Ben Shungu. I can't find a model that has UNI winning by more than four -- SportsLine's has it with a four-point margin. ESPN's power rankings have this as essentially a pick'em. Sagarin has UNI by 3.5 points.
11-10-21	Pacific v. Northern Colorado		65-67	Loss	-110	9 h 34 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units It concerns me a bit that this spread dropped from an open of Pacific -3.5 to a pick'em ... I can't find any relevant injury news, etc., that might have led to that move. If this game were at Northern Colorado, I'd probably stay away as the Bears of the Big Sky bring back all five starters. However, it's in Hawaii and I think Pacific of the WCC should win in the school head coaching debut of Leonard Perry. Former coach Damon Stoudamire left this offseason to join the Celtics. Pacific brings back three key players from last year's squad and welcomes two good transfers in Luke Avdalovic and Alphonso Anderson, who was last year's Mountain West Sixth Man of the Year. KenPom ranks Pacific as the No. 125 team in the nation and Northern Colorado at 200, so I'd be stupid not to take a pick'em, right?
11-10-21	Pacers -145 v. Nuggets		98-101	Loss	-145	8 h 2 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units I believe this number will only go up today with Denver sans reigning MVP Nikola Jokic due to a one-game suspension -- plus Michael Porter is out injured. Indiana is the type of inconsistent team that could still lose this game ... but it really shouldn't (I'm not giving 3 points). The big Pacers frontcourt of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner should have its way with the Nuggets sans Jokic.
11-10-21	Raptors +3 v. Celtics		88-104	Loss	-110	7 h 38 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics are 0-3 ATS at home and will have to play without Jaylen Brown (hamstring), who will miss his second straight game. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 4-0 ATS on the road. They were underdogs in each contest, yet they won each game outright. Add in Pascal Siakam returning and they have a favorable chance of winning this game as well.
11-10-21	Bucks v. Knicks -4		112-100	Loss	-103	7 h 36 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units This is a tough spot for the Bucks, who have injury issues and will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set. Jrue Holiday has battled an ankle injury that previously forced him to miss five straight games, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sit this out. This would be his third game in the last four days. The Knicks could be thin at center with Mitchell Robinson (hip) and Nerlens Noel (knee) listed as questionable. But with a deeper overall roster and home-court advantage, take them to cover.
11-10-21	Pistons v. Rockets -148		112-104	Loss	-148	7 h 34 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Assuming they both play, and I have no reason to think they won't, it's the first matchup in the NBA of the top two draft picks this year in No. 1 Cade Cunningham of Detroit and No. 2 Jalen Green of Houston -- Green has been much better so far. I'm simply taking the Rockets being at home in a matchup of horrible clubs (it's on ESPN because of the rookies). The Pistons haven't come close to an away win yet.
11-09-21	Blazers v. Clippers -3		109-117	Win	100	10 h 18 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Blazers have been awful on the road this season. Not only have they lost all four games, three of them came by at least 10 points. Included is a 30-point loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles. This game should be closer, but I still like the Clippers to cover this small number.
11-09-21	Kentucky v. Duke -2.5		71-79	Win	100	7 h 59 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Obviously it's a challenge handicapping a college basketball team's first game of the season -- this is part of the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden -- and both these programs hugely underachieved last season. Duke does bring three starters back and should have the best player on the floor in freshman Paolo Banchero, very possibly the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. UK might be without one key transfer in Iowa's CJ Fredrick, a great three-point shooter. Then there's the Mike Krzyzewski factor. You think his players don't want to win Coach K's final-ever season opener? Tuesday marks Coach K's 1,400th game as Duke's head coach. The Blue Devils are 39-2 in season openers under Krzyzewski, including winning 21 straight. Welcome back college hoops!
11-09-21	Coppin State +31.5 v. Loyola-Chicago		45-103	Loss	-108	6 h 39 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units This spread seems quite high considering it will be a bit of a transition for Loyola early in the season after losing excellent coach Porter Moser to Oklahoma, although his former assistant Drew Valentine takes over. Ramblers star Cameron Krutwig is now playing in Belgium. Coppin State is a solid MEAC program that hung within 10 at Duke last year and tied for the MEAC regular-season title. I'd think the Eagles can manage to only lose by 30.
11-09-21	Jackson State +27.5 v. Illinois		47-71	Win	100	6 h 34 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Needless to say, who wins this game isn't in question but Jackson State was a good SWAC team last year and was picked to finish third in the league this season. The Illini probably will sleepwalk a bit through this one with Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year Kofi Cockburn out due to suspension and senior guard Trent Frazier in question with a knee injury. The Tigers were 5-1 ATS in their final six road games last year. They can stay within 26 or so.
11-09-21	Miami-OH v. Georgia Tech -9		72-69	Loss	-108	5 h 17 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Yellow Jackets lost ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright and ACC Defensive Player of the Year Jose Alvarado, which has created holes to fill but also some value. Senior Michael Devoe (15.0 ppg) has unlimited range and will lead this team after winning ACC Tournament MVP honors. Former USC transfer Jordan Usher is a 6-7 defensive whiz. Deebo Coleman and Miles Kelly are top-100 recruits, evidence that Josh Pastner is attracting better talent. The RedHawks return everyone from a squad that went 9-8 in the MAC. They rely on their smallish backcourt for scoring, but could struggle versus Tech's length.
11-09-21	Kansas -180 v. Michigan State		87-74	Win	100	5 h 44 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Tom Izzo lost three of his best players in Aaron Henry, Joshua Langford and Rocket Watts plus solid reserve Foster Loyer to transfer. Touted recruit Emoni Bates once was committed to Sparty but ended up at Memphis. Kansas, meanwhile, is absolutely loaded with four starters back (although Jalen Wilson is suspended the first three games) and added Arizona State transfer Remy Martin, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year. I'll be shocked if KU doesn't win this game but it would be typical Spartans to fight hard and cover 4.5 points so we'll do the moneyline.
11-09-21	Belmont -3.5 v. Ohio		80-92	Loss	-110	4 h 32 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The tough Ohio Valley Conference competition wore Belmont down last season. The Bruins failed to cover their last five games and missed the NCAA Tournament. But all those starters are back from the team that dominated the regular season. Ohio had some March Madness success but lost its best player to the NBA. Take Belmont to cover.
11-09-21	Rider v. Duquesne UNDER 149		61-73	Win	100	3 h 30 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Every model I can find has this final score being at least six points lower than the listed total -- the SportsLine Projection Model has it at 141 points. KenPom ranks Rider at No. 206 in adjusted offensive efficiency entering the season and Duquesne 225. Both schools added a ton of transfers so the offenses could be rather shaky in the early going. The Dukes are replacing 10 of their top 12 scorers from last year's opening day roster. One of those top transfers, RJ Gunn, is not expected to play due to injury.
11-09-21	Eastern Michigan +24.5 v. Indiana		62-68	Win	100	3 h 35 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Thanks to Trayce Jackson-Davis, Mike Woodson's first season at Indiana may end in an NCAA Tournament berth. But this is too many points, even against a lower-tier MAC team. Noah Farrakhan, a highly touted recruit who transferred from East Carolina, will be the key for new coach Stan Heath. He erupted for 27 points in a 74-69 exhibition road win over Oakland. He'll beat defenders off the dribble and set up his teammates. Take the points.
11-08-21	Hawks v. Warriors -3.5		113-127	Win	102	8 h 32 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units It’s been a rough start to the season for the Hawks, who have lost five of their last six games. Four of those losses came on the road and all five came by at least four points. In fact, three of those came by at least 11 points. The Warriors are a sparkling 8-1 with a league high +13.7 point differential. Add in home-court advantage, and the Warriors have a favorable chance of covering.
11-08-21	Heat -125 v. Nuggets		96-113	Loss	-125	12 h 8 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Let's go ahead and back Miami now because the Nuggets just ruled out Michael Porter Jr. with back trouble so this number might grow a point or two (I'm taking the ML to avoid a push on a possible one-point Miami win). Porter is having a terrible season but is still the team's second-most talented player behind Nikola Jokic. The Heat are healthy for the most part. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its past six at home.
11-08-21	Knicks v. 76ers		103-96	Win	100	4 h 29 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers have decided to rest Joel Embiid and are still missing Tobias Harris (COVID-19). They defeated Portland in the only other game Embiid has missed this season, which also was a contest in which Harris sat. However, with the Knicks looking to bounce back from Sunday's disappointing loss to Cleveland, expect them to take advantage of Philadelphia's depth issues.
11-07-21	Cavs +7.5 v. Knicks		126-109	Win	100	8 h 27 m	Show
Rating: 3 Units The Cavaliers enter this matchup having won three straight. In each of those games, they were underdogs by at least five points. Despite those outright wins, they again find themselves as heavy underdogs. Winning this game will be difficult for Cleveland, but give me the points.
11-07-21	Nets v. Raptors +3.5		116-103	Loss	-107	3 h 52 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Toronto will see the season debut of arguably its best player in forward Pascal Siakam, a good defender who can give Kevin Durant some trouble -- well as much trouble as is possible giving Durant. With Siakam and stud rookie Scottie Barnes, the Raptors might be pretty dang good. I'll happily take the points here. The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their past five on the road.
11-06-21	Celtics v. Mavs -3		104-107	Push	0	5 h 56 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The big news surrounding the Celtics is that Jaylen Brown (hamstring) will miss this game. That’s a huge loss given his averages of 25.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists. Meanwhile, the Mavericks could get back Kristaps Porzingis (back), who practiced Friday. I think Porzingis plays and the Celtics will have a hard time scoring enough to keep this game close on the road.
11-06-21	76ers v. Bulls -3.5		114-105	Loss	-110	4 h 24 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls haven’t played since Wednesday, against these same Sixers. That game was played in Philadelphia. The Bulls were down big early and tried to mount a comeback in the second half, but they ultimately lost by five. The big news surrounding the Sixers is their outbreak of COVID-19. Tobias Harris was first to test positive and now Matisse Thybulle was placed inside the health and safety protocols Friday. His defense against Zach LaVine was big in the last game, so with him out and this game being played in Chicago, I’ll roll with the Bulls to win in decisive fashion.
11-05-21	Clippers -2 v. Wolves		104-84	Win	100	6 h 34 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units These teams just played in Minnesota on Wednesday and the Clippers won by 11 points. D’Angelo Russell (ankle) did not play and won’t take the floor Friday, either. As good as Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards have been, the loss of Russell puts the Timberwolves’ offense in a tough spot. Take the Clippers to cover.
11-05-21	Grizzlies +2 v. Wizards		87-115	Loss	-104	5 h 36 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units After a 5-1 start to the season, the Wizards have lost back-to-back games. First, they fell to the Hawks by seven points on the road. Then, they lost by nine points to the Raptors at home. Those were two tough matchups and Friday brings another one against the Grizzlies. They are 6-2 ATS, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog. They won three of those games, outright. With Ja Morant rolling, I like them to continue their success as underdogs.
11-04-21	Celtics v. Heat -6.5		95-78	Loss	-103	4 h 25 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Heat look like they are on a mission this season. They are 6-1, with their only loss coming on the road to the Pacers in their second game. At home, they are 3-0 with all three wins coming by at least 15 points. The Celtics will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set and have been underwhelming out the gate, posting a 3-5 record. This will also be their third game in the last four days, two of which will be on the road. Despite this large number, I still like the Heat to cover Thursday.
11-03-21	Blazers v. Cavs +5.5		104-107	Win	100	7 h 10 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers are only going to go as far as Damian Lillard can carry them. He’s only shot 34.9 percent from the field this season, including 23.1 percent from behind the arc. That’s played a big role in their 3-4 start. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have been more competitive than last season, using an improved defense to go 5-3 ATS. After finally returning home from a long road trip, look for the Cavaliers to put up a good fight. If Lillard remains cold, they could even win outright.
11-03-21	Bulls +2 v. 76ers		98-103	Loss	-105	7 h 59 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls mounted a furious comeback in their last game against the Celtics, erasing a 19-point deficit in the second half to win by 14. Not only do they have a 6-1 record this season, but they are also 6-1 ATS. Although the Sixers are expected to get Joel Embiid back for this game, Tobias Harris (health and safety protocols) and Ben Simmons will remain out. This is a favorable opportunity for the Bulls to remain hot.
11-02-21	Pelicans +11.5 v. Suns		100-112	Loss	-110	9 h 38 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units At 1-6, the Pelicans have had issues with players being in and out of the lineup. Uncertainty lingers around several of them, including Devonte' Graham, Brandon Ingram and Garrett Temple. Yet, New Orleans has kept games close as it has lost each of its three games by fewer than seven points. Take the value here on the double digits with the Pelicans.
11-02-21	Kings v. Jazz -9		113-119	Loss	-110	8 h 41 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz will be facing the Kings for the second time this season. In their prior matchup on Oct. 22, Utah outscored Sacramento by 15 points in the second half to win 110-101 on the road. Expect the Jazz to put on an even better performance at home and improve to 6-1.
11-02-21	Heat -2 v. Mavs		125-110	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Miami's Bam Adebayo (knee) and Dallas' Kristaps Porzingis (back) are listed as questionable, so both teams could be without a key frontcourt member. Porzingis has missed three straight games and the Mavericks play again Wednesday, so there might be a better chance that he sits out. Meanwhile, Adebayo was a full participant in Monday’s practice. Even with him sidelined for their last game, the Heat smoked Memphis by 26 points on the road. Not only are they 5-1, but all five of their victories have come by at least 13 points. I’ll take Miami to cover this small number.
11-02-21	Bucks v. Pistons +4.5		117-89	Loss	-109	8 h 51 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons aren't very good, but the Bucks are down three starters, including Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, while Detroit looks healthy -- rookie No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham will play. Milwaukee enters on a three-game skid and while the Greek Freak apparently will play, he's not 100 percent, either. Dating to last season the Bucks are 1-7 ATS in their past eight vs. teams with a losing record.
11-01-21	Magic v. Wolves -8.5		115-97	Loss	-109	7 h 42 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Timberwolves won at Milwaukee last week and were dominating Denver at home three days later before falling apart in the fourth quarter. Karl-Anthony Towns did not score in the fourth, and that game is a huge learning lesson for a team that has a ton of talent. Orlando, we have a problem!
11-01-21	Bulls v. Celtics -134		128-114	Loss	-134	6 h 15 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units I'm not quite buying the Bulls yet, especially with Patrick Williams' major injury and Coby White yet to make his season debut off surgery. Boston will get back two starters in Marcus Smart and Robert Williams after they missed Saturday with non-COVID illnesses. The Celtics are the much deeper club because of those two Chicago guys being out.
11-01-21	Blazers +2 v. 76ers		103-113	Loss	-100	6 h 48 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units There are rumors out that that Sixers star Joel Embiid will sit this one out simply for rest. He is quite banged up. Thus, we'll take a shot that it's true as I think Portland could now win outright since Ben Simmons still isn't around for Philadelphia, either.
11-01-21	Cavs v. Hornets -5		113-110	Loss	-108	5 h 53 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units It’s been a grueling road trip for the Cavaliers, who will be playing their fifth straight game away from Cleveland. They won the first two contests of the trek but have dropped each of the last two by at least nine points. The Hornets finally are at full strength with Terry Rozier back. He’s only played in two games this season, one of which was an 11-point win at Cleveland. To complicate matters for the Cavaliers, Kevin Love (health and safety protocols) will be out for this rematch.
11-01-21	Spurs +3 v. Pacers		118-131	Loss	-100	3 h 41 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs are 3-0 against the spread on the road, and Indiana is dealing with some significant injuries. Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) was considered questionable in today's first injury and has only rested for one game. Caris LeVert (back) is questionable after logging 16 minutes in his season debut. If both players are ruled out or at least one is limited, the Pacers' backcourt will be at a disadvantage. I'm rolling with the Spurs team that beat the shorthanded Bucks by nine points over the weekend as the road team.
10-31-21	Blazers v. Hornets +1.5		113-125	Win	100	5 h 54 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers are off to a 3-2 start with all three wins coming at home. They’ve only played one road game, which they lost by 30 points to the Clippers. The Hornets should get Terry Rozier (ankle) back for this game with him being listed as probable. That would provide a significant boost for their offense. Add in stellar play from LaMelo Ball and with Miles Bridges averaging 25.5 points per game, and I think the Hornets take care of business on their home floor.
10-31-21	Jazz -125 v. Bucks		107-95	Win	100	4 h 15 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units This might be the last time -- barring injury -- that Milwaukee is a home dog all season. The Bucks will not have injured starters Jrue Holiday or Brook Lopez, while Utah will have Mike Conley after he sat out the front end of a B2B on Saturday (Bucks also played Saturday).
10-30-21	Cavs +10 v. Suns		92-101	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers burned me Friday, but I’m going to give them another chance. The Suns have not been playing well, posting a 1-3 record that has included a 29-point loss to the Trail Blazers and a three-point loss at home to the Kings. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have impressive road wins over the Nuggets and Clippers. I expect them to put up a good fight here.
10-30-21	Magic +6 v. Pistons		103-110	Loss	-105	7 h 35 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons are 1-3 against the spread and 0-4 straight up. They've lost every game by at least six points and their average margin of defeat is 13.25 points. While Cade Cunningham's NBA debut could make things interesting, I don't think he's enough to warrant backing the NBA's worst scoring offense. The Magic are 2-2 against the spread on the road and have covered against the Knicks and Raptors. I trust their established rotation and pesky, young defenders against a winless team.
10-29-21	Cavs +7.5 v. Lakers		101-113	Loss	-110	12 h 29 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units LeBron James is questionable after missing the past two games, but even if LeBron plays why are the Lakers this heavily favored? Have oddsmakers not seen them this year? Cleveland, meanwhile, might be the most improved team in the NBA and enters off wins over the Hawks, Nuggets and Clippers. I expect this spread to drop regardless and certainly will quite a bit if James is ruled out.
10-29-21	Mavs v. Nuggets UNDER 218.5		75-106	Win	100	12 h 56 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units I don't believe that Nuggets star Nikola Jokic is going to play with a knee injury, and that obviously massively downgrades Denver offensively. The team is struggling to score as it is -- both the Mavs and Nugs are in the bottom 10 in scoring but Top 10 in scoring defense. If/when Jokic is ruled out, I may come back and take Dallas ATS, although it is in the second of a B2B so not a lock I will do so.
10-29-21	Clippers v. Blazers -148		92-111	Win	100	10 h 16 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers just aren't that good without Kawhi Leonard and with Marcus Morris and Serge Ibaka also on the shelf -- but not long term like Kawhi. Yes, they just blasted these Blazers 116-86 in LA on Monday, but that was a fluke and will fuel Damian Lillard for payback (he and Paul George have a major rivalry). Portland followed that loss with an impressive win over Memphis and might get Norman Powell back from injury tonight.
10-28-21	Spurs +6.5 v. Mavs		99-104	Win	100	6 h 16 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Yes, the Spurs have lost three games in a row. However, they were all tough foes in the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers. They lost two of those games by six points or fewer, so they at least held their own. Doug McDermott (knee) is out, but that might actually be a blessing as it could force the Spurs to give the more dangerous Devin Vassell added minutes. On the Mavericks side, Kristaps Porzingis (back) is listed as questionable. The Mavericks also play Friday, so they could take the cautious route and sit him out. Even if he plays, though, I still think the Spurs can keep this close.
10-28-21	Knicks v. Bulls -118		104-103	Loss	-118	5 h 41 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units At 4-0, the Chicago Bulls are off to their best start since 1996-97. On Thursday, they’ll get their first true test against a legitimate playoff contender, the Knicks. While the Knicks have the chemistry of a full season of their roster together, I expect the new-look Bulls to rise to the occasion. Take Chicago on the small number.
10-28-21	Jazz v. Rockets +9.5		122-91	Loss	-105	3 h 11 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz have won and covered all three of their games and, on paper, should handle the Rockets with ease. But they could be looking ahead to their next two games: at undefeated Chicago and at defending champion Milwaukee. Forward Bojan Bogdanovic (16.7 ppg) is questionable with an illness. The young Rockets have been competitive in their two home games, beating OKC and losing by 10 to Boston. Take the points.
10-27-21	Cavs +8 v. Clippers		92-79	Win	100	10 h 28 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers are coming off of two impressive wins after defeating the Hawks by six points and the Nuggets by 12 points. The win over the Nuggets came on the road, which is even more noteworthy. Darius Garland is back heathy, and the Cavaliers' size up front could present problems for the Clippers, so don’t be surprised if Cleveland keeps this game fairly close.
10-27-21	Grizzlies v. Blazers -2		96-116	Win	100	11 h 2 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers head into this matchup against the Grizzlies needing a strong bounce-back performance. On Monday, Portland was blown out 116-86 at the LA Clippers. Additionally, star Damian Lillard should rebound from an early slump behind the three-point line, where he is 2-for-24. Take the Blazers on the small number.
10-27-21	Lakers v. Thunder +7		115-123	Win	100	9 h 0 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units I'm going to take these points even though Oklahoma City is terrible because I believe the Lakers rest Anthony Davis at a minimum tonight in the second of a back-to-back and it's no sure thing that LeBron James plays, either, after missing Tuesday's OT win in San Antonio. Easy for the Lakers to look past the winless Thunder.
10-27-21	Hornets -5.5 v. Magic		120-111	Win	100	7 h 56 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units After pulling off a surprising win at the Knicks on Sunday, the Magic reverted to their bad habits Monday in a 17-point loss at the Heat. Orlando's two previous losses came by 26 points and 25 points, respectively, so it has certainly been involved in some lopsided affairs. Despite the expected absence of Terry Rozier (ankle), I still like the Hornets to cover with LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges playing well.
10-26-21	Nuggets +7 v. Jazz		110-122	Loss	-105	3 h 8 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Denver is on the second half of a back-to-back after losing at home to the Cavs. In that game, the Nuggets were 9-of-38 on 3-pointers, but they had a ton of good looks; the shots just didn't fall. If they get the same looks tonight, they cash in against Utah. I'm on Denver.
10-26-21	Lakers v. Spurs -107		125-121	Loss	-107	1 h 10 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units I don't think the Spurs are all that great but no LeBron James and a few others for the Lakers in the front end of a back-to-back. Yeah, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook and even Carmelo Anthony could still win this game, but we'll back the much younger and healthier Spurs at home.
10-26-21	76ers v. Knicks -1.5		99-112	Win	100	8 h 48 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units After destroying the Magic by 25 points in their first meeting, the Knicks had a letdown and lost to them by six points Sunday. Playing down to their opponent shouldn’t be an issue in this matchup, considering the Knicks could face the Sixers in the playoffs this season. The Sixers are 2-0 on the road after going just 20-16 on the road last season. However, it’s important to note that their wins came against the rebuilding Thunder and a Pelicans team that was without Zion Williamson (foot). Expect this to be a much tougher matchup.
10-25-21	Pelicans v. Wolves -5.5		107-98	Loss	-106	7 h 53 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans are a mess right now with Zion Williamson (foot) out. They lost their first two games by at least 16 points before falling to the Timberwolves by seven points on Saturday. They did so despite Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell shooting a combined 13-for-36 (36.1 percent) from the field. If they catch fire in this rematch, things could get out of hand in a hurry.
10-25-21	Bulls -120 v. Raptors		111-108	Win	100	8 h 53 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Does this line look funny? Yes! I feel like the Bulls should be -5. I’ll take them in Canada vs a Raptors team that has bounced back from a rough opening night vs the Wizards. The Bulls could be in the Eastern Conference Finals this year. I love their starting five.
10-25-21	Bucks v. Pacers +2.5		119-109	Loss	-108	10 h 35 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee will be without starters Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez so I give Indiana a good shot of winning outright much less covering this number. The Pacers impressively beat Miami in their home opener on Saturday. Chris Duarte, the No. 13 overall pick out of Oregon, has been maybe the most impressive rookie in the NBA thus far, averaging 20.3 points per game. Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its past six as a home dog.
10-25-21	Celtics v. Hornets +1		140-129	Loss	-105	6 h 51 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Both teams played Sunday and won, with the Celtics getting their first win at woeful Houston while the Hornets won at Brooklyn to go 3-0 SU and ATS. The Hornets are unselfish and someone new is stepping up each game. Take the Hornets at home to cover Monday.
10-24-21	Grizzlies +5.5 v. Lakers		118-121	Win	100	12 h 44 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers are 0-2 and Russell Westbrook hasn’t been great. He’s a combined 10-for-28 from the field and he has eight turnovers compared to 13 assists. The Grizzlies dispatched the Cavaliers by 11 points in their season opener and the Clippers by six points on the road Saturday. While this is another road game, they are playing in the same arena, so travel won’t be an issue. They are an extremely deep team even with Dillon Brooks (hand/thigh) out, so don’t be surprised if they keep this close.
10-23-21	Suns +2.5 v. Blazers		105-134	Loss	-102	7 h 23 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have a lot of depth, with the likes of Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet, Cameron Johnson and JaVale McGee coming off the bench. The Trail Blazers, on the other hand, don’t have many super subs aside from Larry Nance Jr. Their backup guards are Anfernee Simons, Ben McLemore and Dennis Smith Jr. I think the Suns can win this outright, so give me the points.
10-22-21	Suns +1 v. Lakers		115-105	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams lost their first games of the season, but the Lakers might have the bigger concerns of the two. They are shorthanded right now with Kendrick Nunn (knee), Wayne Ellington (hamstring), Talen Horton-Tucker (thumb) and Trevor Ariza (ankle) all out. After an ugly preseason, Russell Westbrook still looked lost against the Warriors, finishing with just eight points, five rebounds and four assists to go along with four turnovers. A lengthy adjustment period to his new team could be in the works.
10-22-21	Nets -3 v. 76ers		114-109	Win	100	8 h 0 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Even with Ben Simmons out, the Sixers destroyed the Pelicans by 20 points in their opener. However, it’s important to note that Zion Williamson (foot) didn’t play. Expect the Nets to be much more competitive than they were in their opener against the Bucks. What's more, Joel Embiid is listed as questionable with knee soreness. If he doesn’t play, the Sixers could be in big trouble.
10-22-21	Knicks v. Magic +8		121-96	Loss	-106	5 h 14 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units his spread seems a bit high for a Knicks team that might have some heavy legs afterT a double-overtime thriller against Boston on Wednesday and playing its first road game -- New York was 16-20 away last year. For what it's worth, the Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their past four in the Magic Kingdom. They also are without big men Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson. Orlando stinks but can manage to lose by 5-6 as New York isn't really built to rout teams.
10-21-21	Bucks v. Heat +3		95-137	Win	100	10 h 59 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks received some good news following their season-opening win against Brooklyn. Jrue Holiday left that game with a heel injury, but it’s not serious and he is listed as probable for Thursday. That likely kept them as the favorites for this game despite having to play on the road. This is a big spot for the Heat, who retooled during the offseason by adding Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker. Tyler Herro played well in the preseason, which could be a promising sign of things to come. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Miami win this game on its home floor, so I’ll take the points.
10-20-21	Kings v. Blazers -6		124-121	Loss	-108	10 h 26 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Kings have kept their young core intact and are expected to have a solid shot at securing a playoff spot. The Blazers have turned the page by bringing in Chauncey Billups as coach. I expect the combo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to get past a Kings team that was prone to second half lapses last season.
10-20-21	Magic +6.5 v. Spurs		97-123	Loss	-110	9 h 53 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Ten days ago the Spurs nearly blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead but prevailed to just a one point victory. I expect the Magic to again push the Spurs.
10-20-21	76ers -3 v. Pelicans		117-97	Win	100	10 h 42 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units here is plenty going on around these teams. Ben Simmons was suspended for one game Tuesday after reportedly refusing to participate in a defensive drill at practice. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are going to be without Zion Williamson (foot) for an extended period of time. The Pelicans don’t exactly have a ton of depth and have question marks at both guard spots with Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe no longer in the picture. The Sixers still have Joel Embiid to lead the way, giving them a favorable opportunity to cover.
10-20-21	Bulls -200 v. Pistons		94-88	Win	100	9 h 37 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units I'm not planning to do moneylines all season (although I will at times below -200), but it's just hard to know what teams are in the first game. I don't really trust the Bulls to cover a 5-point spread in Detroit but believe they win as the Pistons will be without No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham due to injury. Thus, Detroit is basically the same team it was last year. Chicago is much better -- presumably -- with the offseason additions of Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso. The Bulls have won seven straight in the series.
10-20-21	Pacers v. Hornets -1		122-123	Push	0	7 h 18 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units In last year’s Eastern Conference play-in round, the Pacers blew out Charlotte, 144-117. The 144 points allowed by the Hornets were the most in a non-overtime game since 1994. This has been a revenge game for Charlotte since schedules were released. Grab the Hornets
07-20-21	Suns v. Bucks -4.5		98-105	Win	100	9 h 41 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks will aim to be the first team since the 2006 Miami Heat to go down 0-2 in the NBA Finals and win the next four games. The rising play of Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to go to new heights. Expect the Suns' letdown over Game 4’s final 90 seconds and squandering of a 16-point, first-quarter lead in Game 5 to haunt them. Look for Milwaukee to close out the NBA season with a championship.
07-17-21	Bucks v. Suns -165		123-119	Loss	-165	28 h 19 m	Show
Rating; 2 Units I see no reason why the home team won't win every game of this series barring injury. Another extra day off in the Finals, which may help 36-year-old Chris Paul, who simply wasn't very good in the two games in Milwaukee. Jrue Holiday defensively has given Paul nightmares. However, I like the Suns because they should have won Game 4 and mostly because of the home/road shooting splits of Holiday and Khris Middleton in this postseason. For Holiday, it's 43.7 percent overall and 30.4 percent from deep at home and 37.5/28.3 away. For Middleton, it's an even steeper 46.8/38.0 at home compared to 40.4/31.5 away
07-14-21	Suns v. Bucks -4		103-109	Win	100	10 h 28 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton were a combined 14 for 18 from the floor in Game 3 and the Suns still lost. Devin Booker was clearly off of his game, well-defended by Milwaukee. Booker has responded recently after bad games. Leading their series 2-0 against the Clippers, Phoenix was beaten by 14 in L.A. when Booker went 5 for 21 from the floor. In the next game, Booker led both teams in scoring with 25 in the 4-point Phoenix road win. Even with that history, Phoenix has to make some major adjustments. They were casual in the last game and when Ayton was in foul trouble, Giannis Antetokounmpo did whatever he wanted on the floor. Milwaukee took the first-quarter punch that the Suns delivered on Sunday and then they won the middle quarters by a total of 25 points. Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker were picking up the Phoenix guards early and often and that made the Suns desperate to fight the shot clock. The biggest question coming into this series was the health of Giannis. Well, all he did was put up 83 points and 25 boards in the last 2 games. Khris Middleton has yet to have an explosive game and when he plays well and scores, it opens it up for the entire squad. In Games 1 and 2 of the Bucks’ four playoff series this season, Middleton averaged 18 points, shot it at 38% from the floor and 29% from deep. In Games 3 and beyond this post season, Middleton has shot 46% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc and has averaged 26 points in 12 games. Reserve guard Bryn Forbes is also due to heat up. His shot has been off a lot but he has 5 double-figure games in this post season, including a pair of 22-point games vs. Miami. If the Bucks can again continue to go to the rack and force Ayton into foul trouble, Phoenix will once again be extremely vulnerable in the paint. Milwaukee was not only a +14 in points in the paint in the last game but they were a +10 in fast-break points.
07-11-21	Suns v. Bucks -4		100-120	Win	100	9 h 52 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Early money has come in on the Bucks and I agree with it. They already have overcome a 2-0 series deficit in the playoffs, against Brooklyn, so the belief is there. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday aren't going to combine for 12-of-37 shooting in Milwaukee, like they did in Game 2 in Phoenix. After two full days of rest, they'll bounce back in front of their raucous fans and give Giannis Antetokounmpo the help he needs. Look for Milwaukee, with its season on the line, to dominate inside and try to get DeAndre Ayton in foul trouble. The Suns are thin inside with Dario Saric and Torrey Craig injured.
07-08-21	Bucks v. Suns -4.5		108-118	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units These series usually come down to adjustments as the games continue. Milwaukee Coach Budenholzer failed to make any defensive adjustment for a sustained period of time in Game One. The Suns ate up Brook Lopez when he was forced to switch and attempt to guard either Devin Booker or Chris Paul. Offensively Lopez shot it well and was a disrupter in the paint but he was clearly exposed on D. You know that Giannis Antetokounmpo is not right when 3 of the Milwaukee starters had more shot attempts. Giannis played with heart but for the most part the explosiveness was not there. Listening to Giannis after the game, it became evident that the injury was on his mind: “The medical staff cleared me to play and out there I had my balance. Thought my knee was stable…at the end of the day, I’m out there...I can run. I can jump. I can set screens. I can rebound the ball. I can do stuff.” The ball boy can set screens, rebound in shoot arounds and do stuff. Giannis doesn’t sound like he thinks he can dominate games like he has in the past. Khris Middleton played well for the Bucks, clearly was the prime mover on offense and he was he was the aggressor even when Giannis was open. Dario Saric is gone with a torn ACL and the Suns are already light with big men. Frank Kaminsky could get more minutes and the ‘Tank’ has averaged double figures in 3 of his 6 years in the league and has shot it at 35% from beyond the arc in his career. The Suns will likely again rely on small ball and if Milwaukee doesn’t devise a way to keep Deandre Ayton off the glass, they will again be in trouble. Ayton was a vacuum cleaner off the glass in Game One. He only missed 2 shots from the field and was perfect from the free-throw line. Basically the Suns held Milwaukee in check as far as transition is concerned and Phoenix pushed the ball, something Chris Paul talked about after the game. Milwaukee was 56% from the charity stripe, Phoenix was 25 for 26 when they got free shots at the line. That could be the key to the entire series.
07-06-21	Bucks v. Suns -6		105-118	Win	100	33 h 58 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units This is a fairly quick turnaround for the Bucks against the fully-healthy Suns. The home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has won seven straight by an average of 13.8 points. In addition, the home team is 15-1 straight-up in the last 16 NBA Finals openers. This likely won't be a quick series, but in Game 1, I expect the Bucks to have significant difficulty adjusting. They got every shot they wanted against the Hawks' porous defense, and now they're facing a rested Suns team that ranked seventh in defensive efficiency.
06-29-21	Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks		88-110	Loss	-110	9 h 1 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Several Atlanta players produced efficient performances on Sunday and they were up a bucket with 12 minutes to play. One of the turning points occurred when Milwaukee was able to keep Trae Young off the free-throw line. He took 12 free throws in the Game One Hawks win but only was on the charity stripe 6 times on Sunday. Young was extremely unlucky. He stepped on the ref Sean Wright’s foot late in the third quarter and although he came back, he was not right. Bogdan Bogdanovic is playing with a lot of heart for Atlanta but he is just not himself, either. He was only 3 for 16 from the floor in Game Three and he must be attacked by the Bucks when Milwaukee is on offense. Bogdan was 2 for 11 from beyond the arc on Sunday (he shot the long ball at 44%, regular season). He is clearly hampered. An MRI Monday revealed a bone bruise on Young’s right foot. He will in all likelihood play but his blow-by speed, which allows him to shoot that pretty floater, figures to be affected. Milwaukee was a +15 in rebounds in the last game and a +22 in points in the paint. Giannis Antetokounmpo has adjusted his game and has just been relentless going to the rack. He only took 2 shots from downtown on Sunday and that is playing to the strength of his game. Bobby Portis gave Milwaukee a huge boost off the bench in the last game, which figures to continue. Khris Middleton showed up and scored 20 of his 38 points in the fourth quarter Sunday. For all the talk about the free-throw woes of Giannis, Atlanta was worse percentage-wise from the charity stripe on Sunday. The Hawks just have no answer for Giannis.
06-28-21	Clippers v. Suns -5		116-102	Loss	-108	8 h 9 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units If L.A. was at full force, that being with a willing and able Kawhi Leonard on the court and a healthy Marcus Morris, they would still be holding out hope that they can win this series. Morris is clearly not himself and he is coming off a 2 for 8 performance in the loss on Saturday. Kawhi has yet to play in this series and even if he does miraculously return, will he be the Kawhi that can dominate games? Probably not. Losing Kawhi is the equivalent of losing Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo. Game Four was an ugly one. L.A. was only 5 for 31 from deep while the Suns were not much better as they hit on only 4 of 20 from beyond the arc. The top scorers on L.A. were a combined 13 for 44 from the floor while the Suns starting guards could only hit on 14 of 44 from the field. The Clips had 15 offensive rebounds but the Suns Deandre Ayton had 9 all by his lonesome. His play was the determining factor in the win by Phoenix. Ayton has had double figure rebounds in 9 of 14 playoff games this season including the 22-rebound outburst on Saturday. Ayton is shooting it at 71% in his 14 playoff games, is averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds. This is a lot of points to give up in an elimination game but including the playoffs this season, the Suns are 52-32-2 against the spread. During the regular season, Phoenix had the fourth best record at home at 27 and 9. They are looking to make the NBA Finals for the first time since 1993 and the near 17,000 expected to be in the stands will be going bonkers.
06-25-21	Hawks v. Bucks -8.5		91-125	Win	100	2 h 36 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units That was a nice, brisk pace they played at in Game 1, going up and down quickly and putting up shots relatively early in the clock. A lot of them didn’t go in but both the Bucks and Hawks seemed very comfortable in their offensive flows. It was “one of those nights” for three-point shooting, with Atlanta 8-for-32 and Milwaukee 8-for-36, as this league has deteriorated into a place where a guy can get a maximum contract, have many nights of 0-for-9 three-point shooting (as the Bucks’ Khris Middleton once again had on Wednesday) and not be mandated to give back any of the money for stinking up the joint, again. Then you had his teammate, Pat, Con-all-for-Naught-on, contributing 0-for-4 on treys and Brook Lopez, a seven-footer, shooting more than half of his paltry total of 7 field goal attempts from three-point range, making only 1. Kevin Huerter and John Collins, the latter a 6’10” guy, combined to be 1-for-11 on threes for Atlanta. Collins was 10-for-11 inside the arc but was determined to take some shots he couldn’t make. In losing Game 1, the Bucks continued their two-season trend of Game 1 losses or non-covers in victory. No surprise there. All of these shooting clowns on both sides are due for better results from beyond the arc but if Milwaukee chokes off Trae Young’s dribble penetration — which they switched to doing with good results during too-little, too-late time — then they should clear the point spread bar in another game we like to go Over the total.
06-23-21	Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226		116-113	Loss	-110	6 h 53 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games as a road underdog, 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games, and 9-2 in Hawks last 11 games following a straight up win. While the under is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 home games, 5-1-1 in Bucks last 7 overall, and 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games as a home favorite.
06-20-21	Hawks v. 76ers -6.5		103-96	Loss	-105	9 h 29 m	Show
Rating: 3 Units Doc Rivers, the luckiest man-man-man… on the face-face-face… of the Earth-earth-earth. The 76ers’ top cheerleader, (‘OK, now, everybody rebound! Then, score a basket!’) watched gratefully as the basketball gods dished out a knee injury to knock out Atlanta’s shooting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic in the second half of Philly’s Game 6 win in which they successfully struggled to fight off elimination to tie the series 3-3. Given that he couldn’t finish the very important game, Bogdanovic’s outside shooting figures to be sorely missed in this Game 7. The Hawks never had much margin for error in this series to begin with. Their three wins have been by 4, 3 and 3 points; the losses by 16, 16 and 5. With a chance to advance on their home floor Friday night, Atlanta came up with their worst offensive game of the series scoring only 99 points. The injury to DeAndre Hunter earlier in the series was an underrated occurrence, as Hunter is a solid, two way player. Bogdanovic, a starter on a Hawks team whose starters have consistently been out-played by Philly’s starters as a group, nevertheless has played as many as 42 minutes in a game in this series. He scored 21, 14, 19 and 22 points before foul trouble limited him to 21 minutes in Game 5, and the injury took him out of Game 6 after only 29 minutes. If the Hawks’ bench is good enough to make up for his absence, or him playing at less than 100%, then we’ll be in for a surprise. It’s a Game 7 in a league where Game 7 results have overwhelmingly been “home” skewed. Ben Simmons was limited to 25 minutes with foul trouble on the road in Game 6. His defensive presence should be allowed to have a greater effect on the outcome in this situation.
06-20-21	Clippers v. Suns -4		114-120	Win	100	5 h 7 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units L.A. lost 2 of the three games they played this season with Phoenix but both teams are different now. Kawhi Leonard is iffy with a knee and he has been Mr. Load Management for a while now. Phoenix has Covid issues with Chris Paul, who remained in health and safety protocols on Saturday afternoon. If Paul can’t go -- supposedly ruled out -- don’t be shocked if Devin Booker handles the ball more. If he stays as the 2 guard, Cameron Payne -- who was Ja Morant before Ja Morant became Ja Morant -- will direct the offense. The Clippers are coming off an emotional win at home vs. a banged-up Utah team. They got 39 from Terance Mann in that game, a dozen points from Patrick Beverly and they still had to win the fourth quarter by 15 points to secure the 12-point victory. If Leonard can’t go, Paul George may have to be assigned to Booker, and that could take away some of Paul’s offensive energy. Phoenix has a pair of elite defenders to try to contain George as Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder are used to covering the other team’s top wing. Suns center Deandre Ayton has already played against and sent home Anthony Davis and Nicola Jokic. The Clippers have gone small in the middle with Frenchman Nic Batum at center and Ivica Zubac coming off the bench. If either is a tad sluggish, Ayton figures to control the glass, particularly with offensive rebounds. Ayton is shooting 72% from the floor in the playoffs. Chris Paul missed only two games this season; Phoenix won them both. In the first win the guy that started for Paul had 17 points. In the other win against the Spurs, Booker and Crowder didn’t play. Payne and Jevon Carter started at guards and combined for 38 points, 15 assists and 14 rebounds.
06-18-21	Jazz v. Clippers +2.5		119-131	Win	100	9 h 2 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Utah came out flat in the third quarter on Wednesday and that dismal 12 minutes did them in. The Jazz were just not as aggressive as L.A. Utah had 3 more turnovers, 4 fewer steals and only one block all night long. Donovan Mitchell didn’t look to be in great shape but he should be able to shoot better than 6 for 19 from the floor. Utah really blew a huge opportunity as they lost the home-court advantage and Kawhi Leonard was not even in uniform. Mitchell is the best player on Utah and he is dealing with a serious ankle problem, Donovan: “It’s something I have to deal with, it sucks… it’s tough when you’re trying things you normally do and you see spots you can get to, but you can’t.” Paul George was determined to be engaged in every facet of the game on Wednesday and he was as he led all scorers and he had more rebounds than anybody. Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris stepped up big time and when Morris shoots the ball well, the Clippers are usually very tough. Jackson, who has been working with L.A. assistant coach and ‘Mr. Big Shot’ Chauncey Billups, is playing with great confidence. He is shooting the long ball the best he has in his career. If you told the Clippers at the beginning of the season that they only had to win a Game 6 at home to make it to the Conference Finals, they would have thrown all their money into the pot.
06-16-21	Clippers +8 v. Jazz		119-111	Win	100	5 h 57 m	Show
Rating: 3 Units Both of these teams have done what they had to do so far and that is win their home games. The margins of victories has been in the Clippers favor so far. Utah won both games in Salt Lake by an average of 5 points while L.A. won their two games at Staples Center by an average of 20 points. Donovan Mitchell did his best on Monday with 37 points but he did not shoot the ball particularly well. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both got to the free-throw line for L.A. Monday and the streaky Marcus Morris was on the hot side. When Morris is hot, the Clippers roll. In the 6 post season victories by L.A. Morris has hit at 59% from deep. In the 5 losses in this post season, Morris has hit at only 21% from downtown. He is a huge key here. L.A. has to continue to challenge Rudy Gobert by going to the rack. The Clippers were a plus 12 in free-throw attempts Monday and that will need to continue. Gobert was in foul trouble on Monday and he only had 8 boards after pulling down a total of 32 rebounds in the Utah wins in this series.
06-14-21	Jazz v. Clippers -5		104-118	Win	100	4 h 25 m	Show
Rating: 3 Units Hope you bought your ticket on the Clippers to win this series while they were down 0-2 and the odds were better. In Game 3, Tyronn Lue and staff switched back to a smaller starting lineup without a traditional center (same as in Game 1, a 3-point road loss), forcing Utah’s interior defensive monster Rudy Gobert to look around for somebody to defend on the perimeter, which allowed L.A. to attack him away from his comfort zone. Following the 26-point win in Game 3, the Clippers could have the Jazz on their heels. Utah’s do-it-all guard Donovan Mitchell entered the post-season off an ankle injury, left Game 3 with an ankle injury. Point guard Mike Conley – who averaged 17.4 ppg and 8.6 assists in Utah’s First Round series – has missed all three games of this series with a hamstring injury. The ball is in their hands a lot, and they are the two best at creating good shots for themselves on a team for which somebody else is destined to be taking a three-pointer from here, or there, or over there, or from wherever they think they have enough space.
06-14-21	76ers -3 v. Hawks		100-103	Loss	-105	2 h 57 m	Show
Rating: 3 Units It’s impossible to stop real good players but containment is the key. Trae Young makes Atlanta go and if his offense can be disrupted, it can stop the Hawks from doing what they want to do on the floor. The ball stuck on the Atlanta side on Friday as they only had 15 assists to 28 for Philly. Not only did Philly’s Ben Simmons do a great job on Young in the last game, he was aggressive offensively. Ben was 7 for 11 from the floor and he can post up anybody on Atlanta except for maybe Clint Capela. If he can again slow down Young, Philly should be able to take a commanding lead in the series. Losing Danny Green, with all of his championship experience, is a blow to the Sixers but Philly has a number of players that can fill in for him. Matisse Thybulle, Shake Milton, Tyrese Maxey and Forkan Korkmaz are all capable of hitting big shots. George Hill gives Philly an edge as an experienced player and if Tobias Harris can keep on producing it will take pressure off of Joel Embiid.
06-13-21	Nets -2 v. Bucks		96-107	Loss	-107	5 h 31 m	Show
Rating: 3 Units If Brooklyn can contain either Khris Middleton or Giannis Antetokounmpo it will go a long way toward taking a strangle-hold on this series. That pair put up 68 points combined Thursday but they got very little help and the ball stuck as the Bucks only had 12 assists. The Nets have to force Giannis to jack up shots. He is 4 for 32 in 7 post-season games so far. The Nets can play much better. After shooting 50% from the floor during the season Kyrie Irving was just 9 for 22 from the field on Thursday. Kevin Durant was a 54% shooter from the field during the season but in the last loss he was only 39% from the floor and Brooklyn only lost by 3 points. Good teams rebound from bad performances and the Nets had their lowest-scoring output of the season in the last game. Look for Joe Harris to be sky high for this game. He was only 1 for 11 from the floor and this season, Harris shot it at 51% from the field and 48% from downtown.
06-12-21	Jazz v. Clippers -4.5		106-132	Win	100	10 h 55 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units If the Clippers don’t contain Donovan Mitchell here, they can pretty much kiss the season goodbye. L.A. played very limited defense on Thursday. Donovan shot the ball at over 50%, Joe Ingles was 7 for 10 from the floor and Bojan Bogdanovic and Rudy Gobert were a combined 9 for 13 from the field. Coach Lue had better emphasize to his players that they have to get the Utah guys off their favorite spots on the floor. L.A. allowed Utah to shot 55% from the floor but during the season, L.A. was fifth in the league in defensive field-goal percentage. Reggie Jackson has to keep on performing at a high level for L.A. in this series. He had 29 points on Thursday and that just takes pressure off of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Marcus Morris continues to struggle from deep but he should be pumped up here after going 0 for 5 from long-range Thursday. Kawhi, who was in foul trouble, kind of disappeared in the fourth quarter on Thursday and expect him to be ultra-energized for this one.
06-11-21	76ers -1 v. Hawks		127-111	Win	100	8 h 22 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Philly stepped on the Hawks right out of the blocks on Tuesday winning the first quarter by 13. Atlanta put together a little run in the second stanza but the Sixers controlled the tempo and the game in the second half. The ball stuck on Atlanta side as they only had 20 assists and the game would not have been all that close if Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter didn’t combine for 41 points. It was a case of Shake, rattle and roll for Philly on Tuesday as Shake Milton lit it up off the bench and gave the Sixers the needed momentum lift. He had a solid season off the pine but was in Doc Rivers dog house until Tuesday. Trae Young proved human as he was just 1 for 7 from deep for the Hawks and one of the main reasons was the defense of Ben Simmons. Atlanta could not stop Seth Curry, Tobias Harris or Joel Embiid in the last game. That trio accounted for 83 points. Embiid is listed as questionable for this game but he has said he wants to play through his injury and manage it.
06-10-21	Nets v. Bucks OVER 234		83-86	Loss	-110	7 h 7 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units While the two games at Brooklyn both stayed below the total, a change of venue should bring more scoring. The Bucks average 120.8 ppg on this floor. Needless to say, they're going to score more than they did in Game 2. Slowing down the Nets is a different matter; Brooklyn averages 119.9 ppg on the road. The last meeting between these teams, here at Milwaukee, produced 242 points. I won't be surprised if this one also cracks the 240 mark.
06-09-21	Nuggets +5.5 v. Suns		98-123	Loss	-107	2 h 1 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Denver was energized for only 24 minutes in Game One. It seemed like they forgot how to play in the second half. Phoenix was just more aggressive. The Suns were a plus 14 in free-throw attempts and they shot 85% from the charity stripe. Not only does that represent free points, but it allows the defense to get back, settle and defend. Deandre Ayton did not shrink from the moment and he had an efficient game compared to Denver’s Nikola Jokic. Denver just looked way too casual and they looked tired to boot. The Nuggets have to play better defense. They gave up 110 a night this season but they rewarded Phoenix with 122 points on Monday. Jokic only had 3 assists and during the season he was the best passing center in the league averaging 8 dimes a night and ranking 6th overall. Look for Monte Morris to be pumped up for this one. After playing lights out against Portland, Morris was just 1 for 10 from the floor on Monday
06-08-21	Clippers +4 v. Jazz		109-112	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units This first game of the Western Conference semis looms a case of rust vs. rest. It’s hard to gauge which way that issue will play out but L.A. should be the sharper of the 2 teams here at least early on. The Clippers went small for Dallas and it finally paid off as they took a Game Seven on Sunday behind good games from Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. The Clips bench also outscored the Dallas reserves 27 to 6. Utah won 2 of the 3 match-ups with L.A. this season. Outside of the one blowout Jazz win when L.A. was missing their top two players, Nic Batum and Luke Kennard, the other two games were decided by an average of 5 points. Mike Conley, who is dealing with a hammy, had 33 in the Utah win in on New Year’s Day but the Clips came out flat in that game and George was only 6 for 22 from the floor. In the Clippers win on Feb. 19, Donovan Mitchell led all scorers with 35 but Kawhi was in foul trouble and Reggie Jackson, who has replaced Patrick Beverley in the Clippers starting line-up, only had 5 points. In the last 6 games, Reggie has scored 15, 16, 15, 20, 25 and 15 points. L.A. will have to devise a way to guard the pick and roll with Rudy Gobert. If they can neutralize his effectiveness, and find a way to get to the rack quickly before Rudy can get set up, it will go a long way to success in this series.
06-08-21	Hawks v. 76ers -6		102-118	Win	100	7 h 56 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Doc Rivers, hey, way to have that defensive game plan ready for Game 1. Great job, Doc! Wave the, "Oh, woe is us with Joel Embiid possibly unable to play!" flag of distraction in hopes that Atlanta gets suckered by it, Embiid plays and scores 39 points, but the other side gets 74 points in the first half on your home floor. Oh, sorry, we forgot, it’s not Doc coaching the team for real; it’s his assistants. Rivers is the world’s highest paid cheerleader. Therefore, Sam Cassell, Dave Joerger, Dan Burke and Popeye Jones have been huddled in a room since Saturday night, blaming each other for not sticking Ben Simmons on Trae Young much in Game 1, and allowing Danny Green to be de-pantsed repeatedly by the Hawks’ motorman guard. Those guys now know who Bogdan Bogdanovich is. The Hawks’ 6’6" shooting guard – who missed all three regular-season games against the 76ers – scored 21 points in Game 1, including 5-for-12 on three-pointers. The good news for Philly is this: every starter had a positive plus-minus for the game, while every Hawks starter except Bogdanovich had a negative plus-minus. Also, if Atlanta’s underrated defender DeAndre Hunter is out again with his knee problem, expect Philly to score in the range of what they got in Game 1, which was 124. Also consider that number 1 seeds in Game Two in the NBA playoffs, coming off a SU favorite loss in Game One, are 7-1 ATS.
06-07-21	Nuggets +5 v. Suns		105-122	Loss	-105	8 h 23 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units Devin Booker was not in uniform in the Suns loss to the Nuggets on Jan. 23. Denver won 2 of the 3 games these clubs played this season including a double overtime thriller when the Nuggets prevailed by 7 points. Their 3 games were decided by an average of 5 points and two games went into extra minutes. Chris Paul’s grit was there for all to see against the Lakers and he always makes sure Phoenix gets good shots. Booker is capable of going off on any given night and this series could just come down to the good guard play of Phoenix against the all-around stellar play of Nikola Jokic. Michael Porter Jr. has stepped up for Denver as he averaged 19 points in the first round and shot it at 42% from deep. Denver is undermanned without Jamal Murray, Will Barton and P.J. Dozier but the Nuggets picked up a quality defensive guy in Aaron Gordon and there is hope for Phoenix that Barton will be back for this series. Monte Morris was a revelation off the bench against Portland and if he continues to produce, Denver will be much better off. Portland’s elite superstar Damian Lillard had nothing but good things to say about Jokic after the Blazers were eliminated, Lillard: “He’s (Jokic) making threes, scoring on the block, scoring on the free-throw line, getting to the free-throw line, he’s making other guys better. He’s everything for them and I think if it was any year where a guy like him and what he does for that team, could lead a team to a championship, it would be this year because of how open it is.”
06-07-21	Bucks +1 v. Nets		86-125	Loss	-110	6 h 60 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks are 13-6-1 ATS in Game Two of a playoff series, including 7-2-1 ATS as a dog. The Brooklyn Nets are 2-11 SU and 4-8-1 ATS in Game Two of a playoff series, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS when coming off a win.
06-06-21	Mavs v. Clippers -6.5		111-126	Win	100	5 h 40 m	Show
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks had us right where they wanted us in Friday night’s Game 6: Up 4, home floor, taking 3, large home crowd behind them, having re-gained the lead following a slight halftime deficit. But they couldn’t close the deal. After gagging it away in their first closeout try, people now expect them to take a mulligan on the road and knock it straight down the fairway, onto the green in regulation, then get up and down while the Clippers don’t. Good luck w/that. If we don’t win, we hope it pushes and if we can’t win and it doesn’t push, we hope they win. The Clippers, despite failing to reach their per game scoring average of 114 points in eight of nine games with Dallas this season, have found ways to win three road games in this series. Whatever the Mavericks have done defensively to limit the Clips – or maybe it’s the Clips limiting themselves – has worked to a degree but has nevertheless left the well-coached club in the usually unenviable position of needing to win a Game 7 on the road. Naturally, because every other game in this series has been won by the road team, their particular task doesn’t seem daunting on the surface. But as we noted on Friday, the Mavericks have had their own troubles scoring against the Clippers, reaching their scoring average only three times in the nine games between the teams this season -- something they haven’t done in this series since they won Game 2, after which we noted that the Clippers had put themselves in the reverse-of-good position of needing to win four of the next five games, three of them on the road, in order to advance.
06-06-21	Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 211		111-126	Loss	-100	2 h 57 m	Show
Rating: 4 Units Game 7s are typically possession-by-possession affairs with more physicality allowed by the refs, fewer fouls called, more shots challenged… and these two teams have already failed to reach their offensive averages eight of nine (L.A) and six of nine (Dallas) times against each other this season. Only one way for us to see this one.