At 12:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (312) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (311) in the Mayo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (3-3) evened their record at 3-3 on December 19th with their 20-17 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 10.5-point favorite. Wake Forest (4-4) looks to rebound from their 45-21 upset loss at Louisville as a 1-point favorite on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin enters this game having failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. While this has been disappointing to bettors, it does offer a good sign for this game. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Additionally, Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 49 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Badgers’ defense will be the best unit in this game — by far. Wisconsin leads the nation by only allowing 263.5 total YPG. They are also 6th in the country by holding their opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonard is one of the best in the business. The Badgers rank 5th in the nation in stopping both the run and the pass as they are allowing just 93.7 rushing YPG and 169.8 passing YPG. Redshirt freshman Graham Mertz began the season with a strong effort against Illinois before struggling the rest of the season. But this remains the Badgers’ most highly-coveted recruit at the quarterback position so his ceiling is high. Wisconsin should be playing better on offense than their 22.3 PPG scoring average suggests. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 bowl games played in December. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. Rust is a significant concern for this team as they have played only once since November 14th. Their strength of schedule also raises red flags. One of their four victories was against an FCS school in Campbell. Their three remaining wins against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse were versus teams that did not end the year with a record over .500 — and those three teams combined for an 11-21 mark. Facing the Demon Deacons’ defense may be just what the doctor ordered for Wisconsin. Wake Forest allows 456.9 total YPG along with 31.6 PPG which ranks 107th and 77th in the FBS. Mertz should find success in the passing game against this Demon Deacons defense that allows 265.9 passing YPG which is 107th in the nation. Wake Forest ranks 93rd in the country in opponent’s Success Rate against the pass and the run. And in their four games away from home, the Demon Deacons allowed 40.8 PPG along with 469.8 YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: There may be few head coaches that get more out of his talent that Dave Clawson — but he will be challenged in this game. Running back Kenneth Walker III and defensive end Carlos Basham, Jr. are both opting out of this game. 20* CFB Mayo Bowl ESPN Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (312) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (298) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (297) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Colorado (4-1) lost their first game of the season on December 12th with their 38-21 loss to Utah as a 3-point favorite. Texas (6-3) closed out their regular season on December 5th with a 69-31 win at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado has been one of the surprises of the season with first-year head coach Karl Dorrell taking this job in late February just a few weeks before COVID would shut things down but still leading his team to four wins in five games. The Buffaloes are 16th in the nation by averaging 218.4 rushing YPG. This will be a highly-motivated football team playing in just their second bowl game in the last 13 seasons. Colorado likes to recruit in Texas which was an important source of players back in their Big 8 conference days — so they will want to take full advantage of the opportunity to play in San Antonio. The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Longhorns have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while the Texas offense exploded for 608 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last game. This team has been pretty fortunate with turnover luck. They rank 18th in the nation with a +0.78 net turnover margin per game mark. They forced three turnovers for a +3 net turnover mark against the Wildcats to help fuel that victory. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games are forcing at least three turnovers in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 55 road games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Texas did not turn the ball over again Kansas State — and they have not turned the ball over more than once in five straight games. Yet the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not turning the ball over in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not committing more than one turnover in at least five straight games. Texas had turned the ball over seven times in a three-game stretch before this recent five-game run. The Longhorns run defense surrendered 274 yards to the Wildcats which is a dangerous sign when facing this Colorado team. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. And their pass defense ranks 115th in the nation by allowing 274.2 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has also faced a handful of opt-outs in what has been a disappointing three-loss season. How motivated will they be to face a Pac-12 team that had three straight 5-7 seasons before this year? The Longhorns are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Alamo Bowl ESPN Special with the Colorado Buffaloes (298) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (297). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (296) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (295) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (8-2) gets to take the field again after being embarrassed in their last game on December 12th in a 62-26 upset loss to North Carolina as a 3-point favorite. Oklahoma State (7-3) comes off a 42-3 victory at Baylor on December 12th as a 6-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Miami should be motivated to get the bad taste out of their mouths in this bowl game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Their defense was simply a mockery against the Tar Heels as they surrendered 778 yards. The Hurricanes are dealing with some opt-outs with defensive linemen Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche not playing to prepare for the NFL draft. While those two players combined for 12.5 sacks and 30 tackles-for-loss, what Miami needs is a better effort from players who want to be on the field after the performance against North Carolina. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. The Tar Heels raced out to a 34-10 halftime lead in that game — but Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They also surrendered a remarkable 555 yards on the ground in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. The good news for the Hurricanes is that D’Eriq King will be playing in this game and returning for a final season next year. The quarterback has completed 64% of his passes for 2573 passing yards with 22 touchdowns while adding 526 rushing yards with another four touchdowns. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread after winning two of their last three games. The Cowboys did not cover the point spread in their win over the Bears — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. Oklahoma State will have their star wide receiver, Tylan Wallace, playing in this game but their star running back, Chuba Hubbard, has opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in  4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. The Hurricanes have only won one bowl game since 2006 — and with big motivation to redeem themselves from their bad loss against the Tar Heels and a geographical edge for this game being played in their home state, they should win this game (but take the points for some insurance!). 10* CFB Cheez-It Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (296) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (295). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). THE SITUATION: New England (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 22-12 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite at the kickoff of that game. Buffalo (11-3) has won four straight games with their 48-19 win at Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills are the trendy team many observers are tabbing as the best team in the NFL as they ride their four-game winning streak while paying off bettors in six straight weeks. But these are the circumstances that could lead to an emotional letdown for this team — especially after an easy 29-point victory against a Broncos team with almost their entire secondary wiped out by injury. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win on the road by at least three touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after they won at least four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in six straight games. Despite their 11 wins this season, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +30.7 net YPG. They have won five of their six games decided by one scoring possession. This team now plays on Monday Night Football where they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The Bills are also 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC East foes. New England has rebounded to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after an upset loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a road favorite. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Patriots return home where they are 4-2 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should stay competitive in this game because of their defense — they limit their visitors to just 19.3. They have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG along with 319.7 YPG. They held the Dolphins to just 133 passing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Remember, the Patriots have won their last two games at home against Baltimore and Arizona who are looking to make the playoffs this weekend. They are 38-13-3 ATS  in their last 54 games as an underdog under Bill Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home as an underdog. New England has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games in the final two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Belichick has been coy about who his starting quarterback will be tonight — but I do expect his team to revel in the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler. The Patriots lost the first meeting between these two teams on November 1st by a 24-21 score — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when avenging a loss by a field goal or less. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New England Patriots (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (11-3) has won four straight games with their 48-19 win at Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. New England (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 22-12 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite at the kickoff of that game.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. New England has also played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Patriots’ offense is sputtering with mediocre quarterback play combining with a lack of talent at the skill positions. They are generating just 271.3 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Head coach Bill Belichick has been coy this week about who his starting quarterback will be as he may use these final two games to let Jarett Stidham audition for the job next season now that they have been eliminated from the playoffs. Stidham is completing just 54.5% of his passes in limited action this season while lacking the mobility of Newton. New England has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Patriots have played six straight games Under the Total, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. New England is playing well on defense — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG along with 319.7 YPG. They did give up 383 yards to the Dolphins last week but they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Patriots return home where they holding their guests to just 19.3 PPG. New England has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two in a row away from home. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. Buffalo has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Buffalo held the Broncos to just 255 yards of offense including only 115 yards in the air. The Bills have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Buffalo has steadily improved their play on defense after seeing some significant turnover from that unit from last season. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with 293.7 total YPG. Head coach Sean McDermott is making things easier on his defense by leaning more on their running game. The Bills are second in the NFL in passing but just 21st in rushing YPG. But Zack Moss rushed for 81 yards last week which was a season-high for the former Utah running back. Look for Buffalo to use this game to continue to develop and fine-tune their ground game as they prepare to make a deep playoff run — and this commitment to running the football will burn time off the clock to help our Under. The Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49.5 range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the total in that 42.5 to 49.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo won the first meeting between these two teams by a 24-21 score on November 1st. New England has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New England Patriots (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (480) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (479). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 24-16 win over Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (10-4) has won four of their last five games with their 46-25 win over Detroit last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. The Packers won this game despite Aaron Rodgers passing for just 143 yards. He was efficient — he completed 20 of 29 passes. And he was supported by an effective rushing attack that generated 195 yards on 27 carries. These are good signs for this game as the Packers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where they did not pass for at least 150 yards. They stay at home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +10.1 net PPG. They are also outgaining their visitors by +86.1 net YPG. The Green Bay defense is playing better as the season moves on as they have held their last three opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with 311.7 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 65 home games after winning at least five or six of their last seven games. And while they have not covered the point spread in four of the last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games at Lambeau after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. And while they raced out to a 24-15 lead in the first half last week against the Lions, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against Detroit last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after a turnover margin of +3 or better in their last game. The Titans lack a pass rush — even when their supposed specialist, Jadeveon Clowney was not on Injured Reserve. When Tennessee takes the lead, their opponents can keep scoring relying on their passing attack. The Titans are 29th in the NFL by allowing 276 passing YPG — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of their passes against their defense. Tennessee is 27th in the league by allowing 390.5 total YPG — and they are giving up 414.0 YPG over their last three contests. Now Tennessee goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (480) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (479) and the Green Bay Packers (480). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-4) has won four of their last five games with their 46-25 win over Detroit last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite. Green Bay (11-3) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 24-16 win over Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have scored at least 30 points in five straight games while averaging a robust 37.4 PPG over that stretch. Yet the Tennessee defense has allowed at least 24 points in five of their last six games. The Titans lack a pass rush — even when their supposed specialist, Jadeveon Clowney was not on Injured Reserve. When Tennessee takes the lead, their opponents are able to keep scoring relying on their passing attack. The Titans are 29th in the NFL by allowing 276 passing YPG — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of their passes against their defense. Tennessee is 27th in the league by allowing 390.5 total YPG — and they are giving up 414.0 YPG over their last three contests. The Over is 18-7-1 in the Titans’ last 26 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Titans ran for 195 yards led by Derrick Henry’s 147 yards, they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Henry’s rushing sets up Ryan Tannehill’s play-action passing — there is a reason that Tennessee is scoring 31.1 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road. Green Bay is scoring 31.0 PPG themselves. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Packers have played three straight Unders, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. Their 24 points scored last week was the first time in their last five games where they did not score at least 30 points. Once Green Bay gets rolling with Aaron Rodgers under center, they are happy to engage in scoring contests if necessary. The Packers have played 19 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. Furthermore, Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while it might snow tonight at Lambeau Field, Rodgers has thrown 99 touchdown passes in his 43 games played inclement weather at home in Green Bay.

FINAL TAKE: Bad weather will also likely play right into the hands of Henry and the Titans’ play-action game — so I see the potential for snow as a net-plus regarding this Over play. Tennessee has played 5 straight games Over the Total as an underdog and 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played in December, the game finished Over the Total 8 times. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (479) and the Green Bay Packers (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

A 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-10) has lost three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. Washington (6-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-15 loss at home to Seattle.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The news that Alex Smith would be out for the Football Team leaving Dwayne Haskins as their starting quarterback is enough to push the Panthers from a 10*/20* range to a strong 25* play. Carolina is underrated. They have been in a position to win or tie the game in the fourth quarter in all eight of their losses — and they are a frustrating 2-8 in games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their record, the Panthers are only being outgained by -2.3 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle by just -1.7 net YPG in their seven road games. Despite losing three in a row, they have outgained their opponents by +21.6 net YPG after dominating the Packers last Saturday in that department by a 364 to 291 yardage margin. These are the underlying numbers of a team that would usually be 7-7. In an expected close game that will likely be decided in the fourth quarter, I will take Teddy Bridgewater over Haskins. The veteran is completing 69.8% of his passes for 3360 yards this season. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they trailed at halftime last week by a 21-3 score, the Panthers have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Football Team gave up 181 rushing yards to the Seahawks last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Haskins completed 38 of 55 passes for 295 yards last week — but he also threw two interceptions. He is completing only 62.9% of his passes this season with just a 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has five interceptions along with five touchdown passes. He also seems to have completely lost the confidence of the coaching staff and teammates. Remember, he was relegated to the third-string quarterback early in the season — he is starting this game only because of injuries to Smith and Kyle Allen. Haskins breaking COVID protocols by visiting an adult establishment last week does not inspire confidence about his leadership skills. The announcement that Smith cannot play was likely demoralizing for this team fighting for a playoff spot. The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be doubly motivated — not only to play the role of spoiler to Washington’s playoff hopes but in facing their former coach in Ron Rivera. While Rivera was well-liked, facing their old coach should ensure a spring in the steps of this Panthers team. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-3) is reeling with three straight losses after their embarrassing 27-17 upset loss at Cincinnati on Monday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (10-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 27-20 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: We had the Bengals as out AFC North Game of the Year — so I am well aware of the problems of this Steelers’ team right now. They are decimated by injuries at linebacker and their offensive line is beat-up. And Big Ben Roethlisberger looks old and cannot deliver the ball down the field. Got it. But this a good buy-low spot for Pittsburgh. Part of the problem with the Bengals’ game was that the Steelers were taking them lightly while it was the de-facto Super Bowl for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh did play better in the second half of that game but could not rally from the 17-0 hole they dug themselves at halftime. The Steelers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games at home after an upset loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional foe. Part of the problem for Pittsburgh has been their lack of running game — their 86 rushing yards last week were the most they generated in their last four contests. But the Steelers have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. Pittsburgh does expect a healthier James Connor for this game which should help them get their ground game going again. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. And while the Colts have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. Indianapolis defeated the Texans last week despite being outgained by -75 net yards after surrendering 42 yards. The Colts gave up 362 passing yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. And while Indy has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in at least three straight games. The Colts’ defense has taken a step back as of late as they have allowed their last three opponents to average 415.7 total YPG. Indy is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC opponents. Look for a desperate and angry Steelers team to play their best game in a month. 20* NFL Indianapolis-Pittsburgh CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (462) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (461). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (7-7) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 30-27 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami (9-5) has won three of their last four games with their 22-12 upset win against New England that closed with them being a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are due for an emotional letdown after defeating Bill Belichick and his Patriots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset victory as a home dog against a divisional rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after pulling an upset against an AFC East foe. The Dolphins got a surprising rushing effort from undrafted rookie Salvon Ahmed who ran for 122 yards while leading an attack that generated 250 yards on the ground. But Miami has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. And while rookie Tua Tagovailoa completed 20 of 26 passes, it was for only 145 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not passing for more than 150 yards. This team is living off forcing turnovers — they lead the NFL with 26 takeaways. But turnovers are fickle — and if they dry up, the Dolphins are a team that has to win games despite being outgained by -30.5 net YPG. On the road, it is even worse as Miami is being outgained by -36.0 net YPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Las Vegas has likely played themselves out of the playoffs — but they can still play the role of spoiler. Despite the losing streak, they have outgained their last three opponents by +26.4 net YPG. The Raiders allowed 402 yards to the Chargers in that heartbreaking loss last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 402 yards in their last game. Derek Carr is available to play in this game after leaving the game last week with a groin injury. Marcus Mariota was impressive in relief as he completed 17 of 28 passes for 226 yards while adding another 88 yards on the ground. But it is the running game that will be key for the Raiders in this game. They rushed for 173 yards against the Chargers — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They also outrushed LA by 77 net yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 75 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The pressure is off the Raiders given their recent slide — but they can make things difficult for Miami who is not used to playing games with playoff implications. The Dolphins control their fate to claim the final wildcard spot in the AFC — but a loss would put Baltimore back in play to take their spot. 25* NFL Bailout Game of the Month with the Las Vegas Raiders (462) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (283) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (284) in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (8-1) bounced-back from their 15-14 loss at North Carolina State to shut out UMass at home by a 45-0 score on November 27th. Coastal Carolina (11-0) remained undefeated this season with the 42-38 win at Troy on December 12th as a 12-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty should build off the momentum of their shutout win as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a victory by at least 17 points. The Flames not only narrowly lost to the Wolfpack but they defeated Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. While the Chanticleers are getting all the Group of Five love for being undefeated, this Liberty team behind head coach Hugh Freeze wants more respect. They have averaged 513.7 total YPG over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 475 YPG in their last three games. Coastal Carolina had failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Chanticleers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 31 points. Furthermore, Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when at least 80 combined points were scored. Quarterback Grayson McCall completed 24 of 29 passes for 338 yards in the win over Troy — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And while Troy has averaged 484 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG over a three game-stretch.

FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Liberty has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Cure Bowl ESPN Special with the Liberty Flames (283) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (459) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (460). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-9) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 41-33 upset loss at Dallas as a 4-point favorite. Arizona (8-6) has won their last two games with their 33-26 win against Philadelphia last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco has suffered three straight upset losses to eliminate them from the playoff race. The reigning NFC champions have simply been ravaged by injuries. Yet they can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a divisional rival. They have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Niners have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset loss on the road as the favorite. The 49ers’ defense is playing pretty well — hey are allowing only 311.0 net YPG in their last three games while holding their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG. Third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard will be under center given injuries to Jimmy Garappolo and Nick Mullens. This is his first start since 2018 — but he does have ten professional starts under his belt. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in the last 10 road games as an underdog, the Niners have covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games after a win at home. And while Kyler Murray completed 27 of 36 passes for 406 yards last week against the Eagles, the Cardinals have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona gained 526 yards against the Eagles after gaining 390 yards against the New York Giants in their previous game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (459) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (459) and the Arizona Cardinals (460). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-9) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 41-33 upset loss at Dallas as a 4-point favorite. Arizona (8-6) has won their last two games with their 33-26 win against Philadelphia last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Turnovers are killing head coach Mike Shanahan’s team. The Niners have lost the turnover battle in three straight games while being burdened with a -2 or wore net turnover margin in two straight games. San Francisco has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least three games with a -1 or worse net turnover margin — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two straight games with a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard will be under center given injuries to Jimmy Garappolo and Nick Mullens. This is his first start since 2018. Look for Shanahan to commit to running the football to take some pressure off the former Iowa quarterback. San Francisco needs to limit turnovers since their defense is playing well. They are allowing only 311.0 net YPG in their last three games — and they hold their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Niners’ last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 49ers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home. And while Kyler Murray completed 27 of 36 passes for 406 yards last week against the Eagles, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona tallied 526 total yards against Philly but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Cards’ defense gave up 305 yards to Jalen Hurts in the win — but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games against fellow NFC West foes. Arizona won the first meeting between these two teams by a 26-20 score. Expect a similar result. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (459) and the Arizona Cardinals (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UTSA Roadrunners (286) plus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (285) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: The University of Texas-San Antonio (7-4) has won three games in a row with their 49-17 win over North Texas as a 1.5-point favorite on November 28th. UL-Lafayette (9-1) has won six games in a row after their 24-21 upset win at Appalachian State on December 4th as a 3.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: I worry about the motivation for the Ragin’ Cajuns who entered the season trying to prove they were the best football team not representing a Power Five conference. They avenged two straight Sun Belt Conference championship game losses to the Mountaineers in their most recent game — and they had the chance to avenge their lone loss this season to Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. Yet that opportunity was canceled because of COVID leaving these players with a lackluster game against a four-loss UTSA team where they are two-touchdown favorites. Meh. But the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning six games in a row. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by six points or less. And while UL-Lafayette has forced three turnovers in each of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after forcing at least three turnovers in two straight games. UTSA generated 624 yards in their win over the Mean Green in their last contest — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have got their offense cranking during their three-game winning streak as they are averaging 41.3 PPG over that stretch while averaging 509.3 total YPG. They also have held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG. They did not commit a turnover against North Texas — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not committing a turnover in their last game. Furthermore, UTSA has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. UL-Lafayette has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl ABC-TV Special with the UTSA Roadrunners (286) plus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (285). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (287) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (288) in the Lending Tree Bowl. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (5-6) has won three games in a row after their 37-19 win at Charlotte as a 3-point underdog on December 6th. Georgia State (5-4) has won three of their last four games after their 30-24 win against Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite on November 28th. This game will be played at Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky should build off their momentum in this game. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after winning two games in a row — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games on the road after a point spread cover. Western Kentucky possesses an outstanding defense that is 17th in the nation in Success Rate against the pass and 7th in the FBS in opponent’s pass completion rate. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 58 games as an underdog, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 39 of these games. Georgia State victory the Eagles flew Over the 51 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Panthers’ surrendered a whopping 296 rushing yards to Georgia Southern while being outgained on the ground by -251 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after being outrushed by at least 150 yards in their last game. Additionally, Georgia State is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and Western Kentucky is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December. 10* CFB Lending Tree Bowl ESPN Special with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (287) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (451) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (452). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-8) has lost two games in a row with their 33-27 loss to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (10-4) has lost two games in a row after their 32-29 loss to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two games in a row. Head coach Mike Zimmer’s team has started slow in both losses as they trailed the Bears by a 20-10 score at halftime last week after being behind to Tampa Bay by a 17-6 halftime score in their previous game. But the Vikings have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight contests. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to an NFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after a point spread loss. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 home games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 56 home games in the final four weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (451) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (451) and the New Orleans Saints (452). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-8) has lost two games in a row with their 33-27 loss to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (10-4) has lost two games in a row after their 32-29 loss to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss. Minnesota did gain 397 yards in the loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Kirk Cousins has been a turnover machine being responsible for 18 giveaways including his 13 interceptions which is tied for the second-most in the NFL. But he is leading an offense that has scored at least 27 points in four of their last five games. Yet the depleted Vikings’ defense has allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five contests. Minnesota is running out of linebackers. Both Eric Kendricks and Troy Dye are out for this game while Todd Davis is doubtful. Anthony Barr is already out the season — as is defensive end Danielle Hunter. The Vikings were already allowing 27.7 PPG to the dismay of head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against NFC opponents. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Drew Brees was rusty in his first game back on the field after missing four straight games with his rib injuries — but he played better as that game went on by leading his team to 20 points in the second half. New Orleans was outgained by -126 net yards but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after being outgained by at least -100 yards in their last game. The Saints’ defense has surrendered at least 179 yards in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last  5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total. With Brees starting under center, the Saints have scored at least 24 points in all ten of his games — and they have scored at least 27 points in eight of those contests. And outside of a five-game stretch from November 8th through December 6th where the New Orleans’ defense allowed just 44 combined points, they allowed at least 23 points in each of their remaining nine games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Expect New Orleans to at least reach their 28.4 PPG scoring average against this injury-ravaged Vikings’ defense with Cousins scoring enough points to keep it interesting. 25* NFL Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (451) and the New Orleans Saints (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (279) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (280) in the Camellia Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-2) has suffered two straight upset losses after losing in the Conference USA championship game last Friday night to UAB by a 22-13 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Buffalo (5-1) was also upset last Friday in the Mid-American Conference championship game by a 38-28 as a 12.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Cramton Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall had won their first seven games this season before getting upset at home to Rice by a 20-0 score before the Conference USA championship game. The Thundering Herd should get their offense going again after two subpar games as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Marshall does have running back Brenden Knox opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft but they still have Sheldon Evans who ran for 248 yards with four touchdowns splitting time with Knox. The Thundering Herd still averaged 30.6 PPG this season. Redshirt freshman Grant Wells should play better in this bowl game after struggling in these last two contests. Marshall has only covered the point spread once in their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 55 road games after playing at least three straight games against conference rivals. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Bulls’ live off running the football — they lead the nation by averaging 309.5 rushing YPG. They expect to have Jaret Patterson for this game despite an injured leg that limited him to only 47 yards on 18 carries last week. He may not be at 100% — and he may only see limited action this afternoon. Marshall is outstanding in stopping the run — they are second in the nation by allowing only 88.9 rushing YPG. They hold opposing rushers to just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to rush for more than 2.75 YPC. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Marshall has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Camellia Bowl ESPN Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (279) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (277) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (276) in the New Mexico Bowl. THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (4-4) has won two of their last three games with their 38-12 win over UNLV as an 18.5-point favorite on December 12th. Houston (3-4) has lost three of their last four games with their 30-27 upset loss at Memphis as a 7-point favorite on December 12th. The New Mexico Bowl was moved to a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, given COVID restrictions in Albuquerque.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: These are far from ideal circumstances for the Cougars. Houston has had eight games either canceled, postponed, or moved due to COVID this fall. This will be just their second game since November 14th so rust is a significant concern. As it is, this is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. Head coach Dana Holgorsen is also experiencing a handful of opt-outs from some of his best players. Two-time All-American Athletic Conference wide receiver Marquez Stevenson will bypass this game to focus on the Senior Bowl. Defensive end Payton Turner with his team-leading 5.0 sacks along with linebacker Grant Stuard who led the conference with 8.7 tackles per game will not play in this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Houston holds a geographical advantage with this game being played about 265 miles from campus. But the Cougars were outscored by -5.0 PPG while outgained by -20.0 net YPG when playing away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. And after their upset loss to the Tigers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Hawai’i had their offense cranking against the Rebels as they generated 530 yards in that victory — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while Houston is 31st in the FBS by averaging 268.1 passing YPG, the Rainbow Warriors are 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 190.6 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing a team from the American Athletic Conference. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the Mountain West Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 bowl games. With this being the Rainbow Warriors’ first bowl game on the mainland since 2008 and with them being coached by a veteran in Todd Graham in his first year with the program, expect a spirited effort from the underdogs. 10* CFB New Mexico Bowl ESPN Special with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (277) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276) in the Montgomery Bowl. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (5-3) aw their four-game winning streak snapped on December 10th with a 45-31 upset loss at home to Southern Mississippi as a 9.5-point favorite. Memphis (7-3) has won four of their last five games with their 30-27 upset win against Houston as a 7-point underdog on December 12th. This game is being played at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: FAU has suffered two straight upset losses with their setback to the Golden Eagles preceded by a 20-9 upset loss at Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite. These disappointments should ensure that head coach Willie Fritz will have his team ready to play in this bowl game. After his unceremonious departure from Florida State last season, Fritz cannot afford to let up in the slightest. As it is, Florida Atlantic has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting upset twice in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing two games in a row by double-digits. And in their last 9 games after a point spread loss, the Owls have played 7 of covered the point spread in 7 of these games. FAU should be able to slow down the Tigers’ offensive attack. With former South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt as his defensive coordinator, the Owls have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They rank 9th in the nation by allowing only 16.5 PPG — and they rank 15th in the FBS by giving up just 326.4 total YPG. This strong defensive play has helped them cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Memphis is 26th in the nation with a total offense that averages 451.5 YPG. But the Tigers have scored only 20.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 296.7 total YPG. They managed just 300 total yards in their upset victory over Houston. Memphis has then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win over an American Athletic Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a narrow win by three points or less at home. Memphis goes back on the road for this bowl game where they have lost three of their four games this season while scoring just 17.0 PPG and averaging -80 YPG below their season average. Opt-outs have taken away some of the best skill position talents from the offense of Ryan Silverfield’s team in his first year as the head coach of the program. Running back Kenneth Gainwell along with wide receivers Damonte Coxie and John Williams are no longer with the team despite starting the year on the roster. The Tigers were outgained by the Cougars in their last game by -109 net yards but eked out that game with the help of an 85-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Memphis defense is sketchy as they are allowing 448.7 YPG which is 102nd in the nation. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in December including five of their last six games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight bowl games. FAU has won and covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (274) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (273) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (5-4) looks to rebound from a 52-10 loss at TCU as a 21-point underdog to close out their regular season on December 12th. Georgia Southern (7-5) has lost three of their last four games with their 34-26 loss at home to Appalachian State as an 8.5-point underdog on December 12th. This game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Southern has serious injuries at quarterback. Their four-year starter, Shai Werts, is doubtful because of a shoulder injury that has kept him out of the last two games. I have waited on this game for updates on Werts status — as of 1:30 PM ET, I am seeing speculation that he is listed as number one on the depth chart but that could be a symbolic gesture. Even if he plays, he may not be at 100% and head coach Chad Lunsford may limit his time on the field. This is far from ideal for the Eagles even if he plays. The offense would be down to third-stringer Miller Mosley if Werts cannot go since second-stringer Justin Tomlin is out with an ankle. Werts has been the engine behind this offense for four years. Mosley completed only 5 of 14 passes in relief against the Mountaineer for 122 yards with a touchdown but two interceptions. He added 49 rushing yards but on 13 carries — he lacks the mobility of Werts and Tomlin. Georgia Southern managed only 349 yards against Appalachian State without Werts. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing three of their last four games. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. And while the Eagles have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least four or five of their last six contests. Louisiana Tech will benefit from the time to prepare for the Georgia Southern shotgun/pistol spread offense. They surrendered 333 rushing yards to the Horned Frogs in their last game but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 333 rushing yards in their last contest. Three turnovers played a large role in that blowout loss to TCU — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Louisiana Tech has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. And while the Bulldogs have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Head coach Skip Holtz will not have senior quarterback Luke Anthony available for this game given his leg injury but that just means the keys to the offense go to sophomore Aaron Allen who has split time under center this season. Allen has completed 64.1% of his passes for 561 yards with four touchdown passes but five interceptions. The game plan should be tailored to better take advantage of Allen’s dual-threat strengths. Frankly, Holtz may also give snaps to one of the two freshman quarterbacks on the roster. No matter what, we can be confident that Holtz will be taking this game very seriously. Louisiana Tech has won six straight bowl games which is the longest streak in the nation. His teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on a neutral field. Holtz’s teams have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games playing off a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern won five of their seven games decided by one-scorning possession — and they were outscored by -4.0 PPG and outgained by -45.2 net YPG when playing away from home. Expect a close game. 10* CFB New Orleans Bowl ESPN Special with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (274) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (271) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (272) in the Boca Raton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Central Florida (6-3) enters this bowl game coming off a 58-46 win at South Florida on November 27th as a 25-point favorite. BYU (10-1) rebounded from their 22-17 loss at Coastal Carolina to defeat San Diego State by a 28-14 score on December 12th as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. And while UCF raced out to a 31-14 halftime lead against the Bulls, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after leading by at least 17 points in the first half of their last game. The Knights saw 17 players opt-out from the team by October either from COVID concerns or legal problems — but head coach Josh Heupel has been able to roll with it with the deep roster he has assembled. Wide receiver Marlon Williams opted-out for this game to prepare for the NFL — but this group looks pretty much intact from the one that lost to Cincinnati by just three points. Heupel is 41-6 in his three seasons as the head coach of this program. It is rare that his team is not in a position to win in the fourth quarter. The Regression Gods were on his side early in his career here as the Knights enjoyed a five-game winning streak in games decided by one scoring possession during their 25-game unbeaten streak in 2017-18. The fickle Regression Gods were bound to make their presence known — and UCF lost all three of their games last year by seven combined points. These Gods were not done with the Knights this season as their three losses to Tulsa, Memphis, and Cincinnati were by just 12 combined points. UCF is now 1-7 in their last eight games decided by one scoring possession under Heupel. So don’t bet the money-line (PS: don’t do that anyway) — grab the points and be happy with cashing a winning ticket. The Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Led by sophomore quarterback Dillon Gabriel, UCF is second in the nation by averaging 585.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are fifth in the nation with a 44.3 PPG scoring average. Gabriel has seven games where he has passed for at least 300 yards — and he topped 400 passing yards in four of those games. BYU has thrived in being opportunistic on defense — they are 18th in the nation with a +0.82 net turnover margin. But the Knights have not turned the ball over more than once in six straight games. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least four or five of their last six games. And while BYU has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game, BYU is just 1-3-1 ATS. Junior QB Zach Wilson did pass for 310 yards with three touchdowns against the Aztecs — but they are just 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 70 or higher — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. BYU has failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops love this BYU team — but those analytics are relying on limited data from non-conference games that serves to vet out relative conference strength (already the college basketball quantitative projections are much better given the much larger sample size even by December). Central Florida has a geographical edge with a short trip from Orlando to Boca Raton. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games. 10* CFB Boca Raton Bowl ESPN Special with the Central Florida Knights (271) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (270) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (269) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. THE SITUATION: Nevada (6-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-20 upset loss against San Jose State (in the Spartans’ temporary home in La Vegas) as a 2.5-point favorite on December 11th. Tulane (6-5) has won four of their last five games after their 35-21 win over Memphis as a 3.5-point favorite on December 5th. This game is played on Boise State’s neutral blue field in Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Jay Norvell should have his team ready to play in this game as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after suffering an upset loss against a conference rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in these last three situations. Nevada has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against a loss to a Mountain West foe. Additionally, the Wolf Pack is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Nevada is led by sophomore quarterback Carson Strong who is completing 69.4% of his passes for 2587 yards. The Wolf Pack did surrender 506 yards against the Spartans in their last game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Norvell’s teams usually play well in situations like this. Nevada has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in December. Additionally, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when they are an underdog on a neutral field. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. The Green Wave have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against an American Athletic Conference opponent. Head coach Willie Fritz had to deal with instability in his coaching staff on both sides of the ball in preparation for this game. Offensive coordinator Will Hall left the program to take the head coaching gig at Southern Miss. Fritz dismissed defensive coordinator Jeff Curtis after the Memphis game. Tulane is also dealing with attrition on their defensive line with defensive tackles De’Andre Williams and Jeffery Johnson out for this game with injuries while Cameron Sample is questionable. The Green Wave registered 36 sacks this season but 10 of them were from another five came from Sample — and Williams is the straw that stirs the drink in the middle. Despite their winning record, Tulane was outgained by -23.1 net YPG. And in their six games away from Orleans on the road, the Green Wave were outgained by -92.5 net YPG. The Tulane pass rush has been their only salvation from a porous pass defense that ranks 115th in the nation by allowing 279.5 passing YPG. And this deficiency plays right into the hands of Nevada who rank 9th in the nation by averaging 325.1 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Nevada lost a close game to Ohio in last year’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 30-21 score — so not only is this team familiar with the blue field in Boise but they have the opportunity to redeem themselves from that loss. The Wolf Pack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. Tulane has won their last two bowl games under Fritz so the urgency of this opportunity may not be as great. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potato Bowl ESPN Special with the Nevada Wolf Pack (270) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (369) and the Cincinnati Bengals (370). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog. Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch after managing only 224 yards last week against the Bills. They have played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have not rushed for more than 68 yards in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after not rushing for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total — and they have played 21 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Steelers have also played 25 of their last 30 road games Under the Total when favored. Cincinnati has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Bengals are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Yet he is averaging only 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt and completing just 48.1% of his passes. He takes over an offense that has not scored more than 17 points in five straight games while averaging just 10.3 PPG along with 220.0 total YPG in their last three contests. Finley is going to struggle against the Steel Curtain defense that is allowing only 18.2 PPG along with 303.1 total YPG this season. The Bengals have seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a double-digit dog.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati is looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 21 points. The Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters in Cincinnati Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (369) and the Cincinnati Bengals (370). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good opportunity to offer the reminder that we don’t bet on teams — we bet on point spreads. The Steelers are in no position to be a favorite of around two touchdowns to anybody right now. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while these problems on offense has contributed to them playing four straight Unders, Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing four straight Unders. Furthermore, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games in December, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Cincinnati should play well after their embarrassing effort at home. Not only have the Bengals covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Cincinnati has been pretty sneaky good at home this season before laying an egg against the Cowboys in that Andy Dalton revenge game. The Bengals have a 2-point loss to New England and a 3-point loss to Cleveland at home — and their two wins against Tennessee and Tennessee were at home. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Finley cannot be much worse than Allen as the Bengals have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than 17 points in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati will be looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (267) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (268). THE SITUATION: North Texas (4-5) became bowl eligible in this unusual COVID-ridden season with their 45-43 win at UTEP in their last regular-season game on December 11th as a 10-point favorite. Appalachian State (8-3) enters this game coming off a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern as an 8.5-point favorite on December 12th. The inaugural Myrtle Beach Bowl will be played at the home of Coastal Carolina at Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State will likely be flat in this less than prestigious bowl game in this bizarre season. As it is, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while Appalachian State has only covered the point spread once in their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Additionally, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games as a favorite, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. North Texas has not covered the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And while the Mean Green have allowed their last three opponents to score at least 42 points, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 42 points in three straight games. North Texas should be able to score points — they are averaging 35.1 PPG along with 515.0 total YPG this season. Head coach Seth Littrell has been rotating quarterbacks this season between sophomores Austin Aune and Jason Bean — but with Aune declared out for this game, Bean should get the majority of snaps and a game-plan tailored to his skill set. This will be Bean’s sixth straight start — he is completing only 52.4% of his passes but he averages 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt with 12 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Bean is the more mobile of the two QBs as well — he has rushed for 336 yards this season. He will be without his best weapon in wide receiver Jaelon Darden who leads the nation with 19 touchdowns but the Mean Green have other options at the position that will get an opportunity. Appalachian State is the type of team that North Texas has success against. The Mountaineers average 23.5 first downs per game while being on offense for 32:40 minutes per game. The Mean Green has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense while tallying at least 21 first downs per game.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has won five straight bowl games but this will be the first one with veteran offensive line coach Shawn Clark will be the head coach in his first year with the program. North Texas has played in a bowl game in four of the last five seasons — but they missed out last year after losing to Utah State in the New Mexico Bowl in 2018. Littrell is on the hot seat in Denton in his fifth year with the program — he needs to end the year on a good note. I am not predicting an upset here — but I am very confident that this North Texas team is taking this game very seriously. Getting 21 or so points is too many to pass up. 10* CFB Myrtle Beach Bowl ESPN Special with the North Texas Mean Green (267) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (362) and the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog. New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight games Under the Total. The Giants have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. And while New York allowed 231 rushing yards in that game, they have then played 38 of their last 56 games Over the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants only rushed for 78 yards in that game after topping 100 rushing yards in their previous seven straight games. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be the starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. New York has also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in December. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Browns gained 493 yards against the Ravens, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Cleveland has scored at least 40 points in two straight games — but they have given up 107 combined points in their last three games. The Browns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. With both these teams facing playoff implications for this game, expect the scoring to push the combined number above the number. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (362) and the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has plenty to play for in this game with a victory giving them a tie for first place in the NFC East after Washington lost to Seattle this afternoon. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. And while the Giants managed only 159 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. The New York defense has been the catalyst to their improved play. They have held their last three opponents to jut 18.3 PPG along with 290.7 total YPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Cleveland is vulnerable to being satisfied with their competitive loss to the Ravens on Monday — this is a group that too often makes their own announcement as to just how good they are. Yet the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are just 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up loss. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Despite their 9-4 record, the Browns are being outscored by -1.5 PPG. They go on the road where they are being outgained by -24.2 net YPG while being outscored by -6.9 PPG despite their 4-2 record. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Cleveland may win this game — but this should be a close game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (366) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (365). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-3) looks to rebound from their 24-21 upset loss at Philadelphia last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (12-1) looks to build off their 33-27 win at Miami last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should respond with a big effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss —and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less on the road. The Saints’ defense surrendered 413 yards against the Eagles but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gained 358 yards behind Taysom Hill at quarterback, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards. New Orleans does not play at home often as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Drew Brees returns under center for this team in this game but he will not have Michael Thomas who will not play because of an injury until the playoffs. The Saints’ defense should play better in this one. They are holding their opponents to just 20.4 PPG along with 298.3 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with 285.7 total YPG. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win where they did not cover the point spread. The Chiefs are getting comfortable living dangerously with five straight victories by six points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games by six points or fewer. And while Kansas City is getting used to their offense bailing them out by averaging 479.3 total YGP, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG in three straight contests. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range including four of these last five situations. 10* NFL Kansas City-New Orleans CBS-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (366) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (365). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (357) and the Minnesota Vikings (358). THE SITUATION: Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog. Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce-back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have found a spark with Mitchell Trubisky back as their starting quarterback. He completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Texans last week. He also rushed for 23 yards on four carries with the reckless abandon of someone who has nothing to lose. Chicago generated 410 yards in that game while averaging 7.32 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after averaging at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Bears are scoring 30.3 PPG over their last three games with a retooled offensive line. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points at home. And while the defense played well last week, the Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They go back on the road for this one where they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Minnesota is just 3-4 at home this season — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total. The Vikings have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Their loss to the Buccaneers finished 12 points below the 52 point total — and Minnesota has also played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Vikings return home where they are scoring 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG — but they are also allowing 30.9 PPG along with 427.0 total YPG. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home. They also have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC North — and Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (357) and the Minnesota Vikings (358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog. Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when placed in the bounce-back mode as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Minnesota did get 162 rushing yards last week with Delvin Cook leading the way which is a good sign for this game as they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home for the last time for this game where they are scoring a healthy 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range including covering the spread in five of these last six situations. Chicago enjoyed a transcendent game from Mitchell Trubisky who completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. But look for the Bears to take a step back as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Bears dominated the Texans by outgaining them by +153 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards. That game was the first time that Chicago had met point spread expectations in their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four contests. They go back on the road where they are being outscored by -3.7 net PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC North foes — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. Chicago will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing at home to Minnesota by a 19-13 score as a 3-point underdog — but the home team has still covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). THE SITUATION: Florida (8-2) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at home to LSU last Saturday as a 24-point underdog. Alabama (10-0) completed their undefeated regular season last week with their 52-3 win at Arkansas as a 28-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for this Florida team to play one of their best games of the season after getting embarrassed last week in a game that ruined their college football playoff aspirations. The Tigers were extremely fortunate to win that when considering that they were outlined by -291 net yards. The win probability metrics given the underlying stats are quite low for LSU after that game — and they needed that personal foul penalty resulting from a thrown shoe after a Florida defensive stop to keep their winning drive alive that culminated in a 57-yard field goal. The Gators have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a double-digit favorite. Florida has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on the road after a loss by a touchdown or less to a conference opponent. The Gators were without tight end Kyle Pitts in that game but he is expected to play and is the most dangerous target in their passing game. I am not sure that Florida can slow down the Alabama offense — although they have held their last three opponents to only 22.0 PPG and 324.3 total YPG. But Florida should be able to keep this game competitive due to their explosive offense behind quarterback Kyle Trask. The Gators racked up a whopping 609 yards last week against LSU. They are scoring 41.2 PPG while averaging 513.5 total YPG. Florida has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Trask is completing 70.2% of his passes for 3717 yards with 40 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. Alabama is playing their third straight game away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Alabama offense appears unstoppable — but the Razorbacks did a decent job of holding them to 433 yards last week which is over 100 yards below their season average. One of their touchdowns came from an 84-yard punt return for a touchdown. And while the Tide has scored at least 42 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 42 points in at least four games in a row. Alabama forced four Arkansas turnovers last week for a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 45 games after forcing at least four turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when playing on a neutral field as a favorite in the 14.5 to 17 point range. Too many points to pass up for a team that will likely put up a big number on the scoreboard tonight. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Year with the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). THE SITUATION: Denver (5-8) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 32-27 upset victory at Carolina as a 4-point underdog. Buffalo (10-3) comes off a high-profile victory last Sunday night against Pittsburgh by a 26-13 score as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills doubled-up the Steelers score last week despite gaining only 334 yards of offense. But this Buffalo team may be due for an emotional letdown now facing a 5-8 Broncos team on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after winning at least four of their last five games — including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last six circumstances. Buffalo has won ten of their thirteen games despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.6 net YPG. And while they are 4-2 in their six games on the road, they have a flat net PPG margin of 0.0 in those contests. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Buffalo is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.9% of their passes, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of his passes. Drew Lock comes off his best game in the NFL last week as he completed 21 of his 27 passes of 280 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He led an offense that generated 365 yards — and Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Broncos have lost four of their last six games, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Denver has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight contests. The Broncos have suffered some key injuries on defense this season — but they have still held their guests to just 336.0 YPG when playing at home. This Denver is dealing with some significant injuries (and one suspension) — and they are particularly thin at cornerback for this game. That is certainly not ideal — but head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive coach who is as good as it gets in finding solutions. Remember, we are not betting teams, we are betting point spreads that take into account injuries before the market gets involved. The good news is that Denver does expect to have their vastly improved left tackle Grant Bolles as well as tight end Noah Fant available for this game (and I am not too worried about them not having their top place kicker, Brandon McManus, either — they have been working with a backup kicker after their quarterback debacle that left them without options a few weeks ago).

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Look for the Broncos to keep this game close as they embrace the role of the spoiler without any pressure in this game. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (5-0) takes the field again after remaining unbeaten this season two weeks ago with their 52-12 victory against Michigan State as a 21.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-1) comes off a 28-10 win over Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I am not a believer in the Wildcats. Their 6-1 start is impressive — but I suspect this is a team we would have made money on when fading them in their late Big Ten conference games after a start like this. Instead, with the COVID-shortened season, they show up in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. Maybe head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team makes it to this game under normal circumstances — but that is a testament to the weakness of the Big Ten West where Northwestern compiled their impressive stats in this shortened season. The only team that the Wildcats have played from the Big Ten East was a bad Michigan State team — and somehow Sparty scored 29 points against this supposed elite defense! Nebraska tallied 442 total yards against this Wildcats’ defense as well. I suspect Ohio State is going to expose this unit. And Northwestern simply does not have the talent on offense to reach 30 points the way Indiana did against the Buckeyes to keep things relatively close. Their quarterback Patrick Ramsey transferred away from the Hoosiers because he was losing his job to Michael Penix, Jr. who is a dynamic dual-threat. Ramsey is a classic drop-back passer who lacks mobility. And while he has passed for 1218 yards, he is averaging only 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with only nine touchdown passes and six interceptions in his seven starts. Northwestern scored only 22.7 PPG in their last three contests — and they average just 283.3 total YPG in their three games away from Evanston. Those are all ominous numbers for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. They are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Wildcats did not force a turnover last week against the Illini — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. And while they rushed for 411 yards last week while tapping into their younger running backs on their depth chart like freshman Cam Porter, they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ohio State’s defense has another level of athlete than what Illinois had to offer. The Buckeyes’ have been adjusting to life without Chase Young — but they still rank second in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt. They are also holding opposing rushers to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Ohio State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game after holding Sparty to just 261 yards. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by quarterback Justin Fields, the Buckeyes are an offensive juggernaut who is scoring 46.6 PPG while averaging 532.4 total YPG. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. Ohio State usually saves a few tricks for their rivalry game with Michigan that they still have yet to unveil since that game was canceled. And the Buckeyes need style points to ensure they are one of the four teams in the playoff. Expect a blowout where head coach Ryan Day never has his team take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (231) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (232). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (7-2) has won six straight games after their 27-14 win over Baylor two weeks ago on December 5th as a 23-point favorite. Iowa State (8-2) has won five straight games with their 42-6 win against West Virginia as a 6-point favorite two weeks ago. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma lost two of their first three games this season — including a 37-30 setback to the Cyclones on October 3rd as a 7.5-point favorite. There are three reasons why I am willing to give the Sooners a pass for that slow start. First, COVID has been a challenge for everyone — and it has had a disproportionate effect on many football programs. I think it particularly hit many outstanding football coaches who rely on their abilities to coach up talent — and being robbed of teaching time played a toll. Second, I think it is underappreciated how much some coaches nurture improvement from their players as the season goes on. If (and when) the College Football Playoff expands beyond four teams to allow for teams with more than one loss, we will likely witness more teams make deep postseason runs benefited from the improvement that comes from great coaching. We see this all the time in college basketball. Third, this Sooners team added two key players in the sixth game of the season in running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins who were both suspended for the first three games. Perkins has tallied four sacks in four games with a pressure rate per pass rush of 16% (for comparison's sake, Chase Young had an 18% clip last year with Ohio State). Stevenson has rushed for 557 yards in four games with six touchdowns and a 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. These two players are difference-makers who did not play in the first meeting between these two teams. Oklahoma should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. Iowa State is just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least four games in a row. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Iowa State outgained the Mountaineers by a 483 to 264 yardage margin, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last game. The Cyclones hosted the first encounter between these two teams in Ames — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State lost to the Oklahoma State team that got easily defeated against this Sooners team a month later by a 41-13 score in mid-November. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Iowa State ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (231) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (3-2) has lost two straight games entering this game after their 21-17 upset loss at California as a 9-point favorite on December 5th. USC (5-0) remained unbeaten last Saturday with their 43-38 win at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon was placed into this game on Monday when the COVID outbreak in the Washington program forced them to pull out of that game. The Ducks thought they were going to be given the chance to earn the opportunity to play in this game with a showdown with the Huskies their scheduled game last week — but that game was canceled given the COVID issues in the Washington program. That game offered Oregon the chance to redeem themselves from suffering two straight upset losses at Oregon State and then at California two weeks ago. While the circumstances are less than ideal, this game does offer the Ducks the opportunity to salvage their season. Expectations were high for this group with 12 starters back from the team that finished 12-2 after winning both the Pac-12 Championship Game and then the Rose Bowl with a victory against Wisconsin. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. And while the Ducks have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. Oregon outgained the Golden Bears in their last game by +97 net yards but red zone problems and a -2 net turnover margin held the Ducks back. Regression was expected for this team in the turnover department this season after they enjoyed a +16 net turnover margin last year. However, the Regression Gods may have overcorrected with Oregon ranking 123rd in the nation with a -1.40 net turnover margin per game. The Ducks are averaging 34.2 PPG which is 27th in the FBS — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 road games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games on the road as an underdog of 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 48 of their last 72 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. USC was very fortunate to escape last week’s game with a victory as they were outgained by UCLA by -105 net yards. Over their last three games, the Trojans are being beaten in the yardage battle by -19.6 net YPG. The Bruins exposed a soft USC defense last week by amassing 549 total yards. The Trojans generated 364 of those yards allowed were in the air — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last contest. Sophomore Kedon Slovis did complete 30 of 47 passes for 344 yards last week but the Trojans are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 8 games in December, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Trojans have been benefited from a +7 net turnover margin this season — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone tonight with some bounces that go the Ducks' way.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon will have plenty of confidence in this game as they crushed USC last season by a 56-24 score on the Trojans’ home field with a packed stadium. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with USC. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but (always!) take the insurance with the points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (197) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (198) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ball State (5-1) has won five games in a row with their 30-27 upset win over Western Michigan last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Buffalo (5-0) remained unbeaten this season last week with their 56-7 win over Akron as a 33-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State will have plenty of momentum and confidence entering this game. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win by 3 points or less. Additionally, Ball State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. This is a team that returned 14 starters from a group that finished 4-4 in MAC play last year despite outgaining their opponents by +31 net YPG. Six of their returning players were all-conference. They have a dynamic quarterback back in senior Drew Plitt who leads a passing attack that is 23rd in the nation Passing Success Rate and 24th in the nation with an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He leads an offense that scores 34.3 PPG while averaging 481.3 YPG in their three road games. The Cardinals did give up 491 yards last week but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Ball State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last game by at least 28 points. And while the Bulls raced out to a 35-0 halftime lead last week against the Zips, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after owning a halftime lead of at least 24 points in their last game. Buffalo dominated Akron with a +302 net yardage edge — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Bulls’ numbers are a bit skewed by playing only five games with two of them against the woeful Akron and Bowling Green teams. They have played only one game against a team in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top 100 in SP+ offense — and that Kent State team scored 41 points against them. The Buffalo defense ranks 75th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt and 83rd in the nation in Explosive Plays allowed. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 straight games between these two teams. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Ball State Cardinals (197) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (198). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (207) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (208). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (2-5) looks to bounce back from their 24-17 upset loss at home to Minnesota last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. Rutgers (3-5) looks to build off their 27-24 upset win in overtime at Maryland last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Nebraska has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. This Cornhuskers’ offense averages only 22.4 PPG. They managed just 308 total yards against a Golden Gophers’ defense that has struggled this season. Their defense has played better as the season has moved on — they have held their last three opponents to just 25.7 PPG along with 347.0 total YPG which are much better numbers than the 30.6 PPG and 405.7 total YPG they have allowed for the season. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders. Nebraska has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total as a favorite. Rutgers has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home after an upset win as an underdog. The Scarlet Knights have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Rutgers rushed for 224 yards last week in the victory — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. And while the Cornhuskers surrendered 206 yards on the ground last week, Nebraska has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Scarlet Knights have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: It will be cold in New Jersey tonight with the temperatures starting in the low-30s. Expect a quick game tonight with plenty of rushing plays. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Year within the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (207) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (195) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (196) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UAB (5-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 21-16 win over Rice as a 7-point favorite. Marshall (7-1) was embarrassed the previous week against that same Owls team on December 5th in a 20-0 upset loss as a 24.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a win against a conference rival. And while the Blazers have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They are also 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. And while that game finished Under the 42 point total, UAB has then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. This team has played only once since Halloween — but this time off afforded them to get healthy again. Junior quarterback Tyler Johnston returned last week in that game against the Owls. The Blazers did lose senior wide receiver Austin Watkins who decided to opt-out the rest of the season. But UAB has depth at wide receiver and two pass-receiving tight ends to pick up the slack. This is a veteran team that has played in the Conference USA Championship Game in two straight seasons — and eighteen starters returned in the fall from the group that lost to Florida Atlantic last year. This team was just a couple of good bounces away from being 7-1 entering this game. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in expected low-scoring games with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. What happened to Marshall two weeks ago in their shocking shutout loss? For starters, their redshirt freshman quarterback, Grant Wells, threw five interceptions. This team has also been hit with injuries, particularly on their offensive line. This team may have peaked too soon for 11th-year head coach Doc Holliday. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. And while that game flew Under the 42 point total, Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Thundering Herd do get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Coming off a shutout loss, a big Marshall bounce-back is certainly possible. This is why I look closely at team trends in an attempt to ascertain if there is a team personality or culture under a head coach that helps assess how a group will respond to specific circumstances. We have plenty of data to assess Holiday’s teams at Marshall. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB UAB-Marshall CBS Sports Network Special with the UAB Blazers (195) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (196). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (301) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-17 win over Atlanta as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (7-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 44-27 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 3 points or less. And while Los Angeles has only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Despite their losing record and -5.0 net PPG average on the season, the Chargers are outgaining their opponents by +45.9 net YPG with an offense and defense that are both top-nine in the league in yardage. LA is also outgaining their home hosts when playing on the road. Anthony Lynn’s team is too often finding ways to lose — but they are playing close games with seven of their losses decided by one scoring possession. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They are also 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 road games as an underdog. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. Head coach Jon Gruden has a mess on his hands-on defense. Not only did he fire his defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther, this week after they allowed over 200 rushing yards for the second straight week, but injuries have ruled our four defensive starters tonight in defensive backs Johnathan Abram and Damon Arnette along with linebacker Nicholas Morrow and defensive end Clelin Ferrell. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. Las Vegas has been outrushed by 133 and 134 yards in each of their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 8 games in December, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are playing out the string — but they can not only spoil the Raiders’ playoff hopes but they can also avenge a 31-26 loss to Las Vegas on November 8th. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing in the Raiders’ home stadium. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (301) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-17 win over Atlanta as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (7-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 44-27 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is a decisive 40-19-1 in the Chargers’ last 60 games after a straight-up victory — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The LA defense is ninth in the NFL by allowing 337.1 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 314.0 YPG. They held the Falcons to just 319 yards last week. The Chargers’ offense may be limited this week with running back Austin Ekeler and wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all questionable with injuries. The reports this afternoon are that Ekeler will give it a go with his quad injury but that Allen and Williams are game-time decisions with their hamstring and back issues. Los Angles will also be without right tackle Bryan Bulaga who is ruled out with a concussion. These are not encouraging signs for an offense that is scoring only 12.3 PPG while averaging just 323.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The Chargers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. They also have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a short week on a Thursday. And in their last 26 games in December, the Under is 19-6-1. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Under is also 9-3-1 in the Raiders’ last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Head coach Jon Gruden has a mess on his hands-on defense. Not only did he fire his defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther, this week after they allowed over 200 rushing yards for the second straight week, but injuries have ruled our four defensive starters tonight in defensive backs Johnathan Abram and Damon Arnette along with linebacker Nicholas Morrow and defensive end Clelin Ferrell. Las Vegas has passed for 368 and 345 yards in their last two games — and they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total. While there is little that Gruden and newly appointed defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli can do to fix the defensive issues, changing the game plan can ease the burden on the defense a bit. Look for the Raiders to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep his defense off the field. Defensive coaches tend to think their players hit a wall after taking part in around 50 plays. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in two straight games. And while the Raiders have allowed their last two opponents to average 7.72 and 6.60 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.5 YPP. Las Vegas stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, the Raiders have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The offense is scoring only 21.3 PPG over their last three games — and the Under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers will be playing with revenge on their mind from a 31-26 loss at home to the Raiders on November 8th — and they have played 36 of their last 54 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. These two teams have also played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (179) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (180). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-5) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 34-17 win over Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite. Cleveland (9-3) has won four games in a row with their 41-35 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore got the ground game cracking last week with 294 yards on a 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry average which they will certainly rev-up again tonight. This is a very good sign for head coach John Harbaugh’s team as they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Ravens allowed 388 yards to the Cowboys, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Ravens’ recent losing streak took place while defensive tackles Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams were out with injuries — but they both returned last week for the Cowboys game. Campbell is listed as questionable with his calf injury but hopefully, he will play. Baltimore is allowing only 19.2 PPG this season which is 4th best in the league. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they are 4-2 this season with an average winning margin of +6.0 PPG. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 32-14-6 ATS in their last 50 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Harbaugh’s team has also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games in December. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against AFC North opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they are just 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games as an underdog. The Browns are dealing with injuries in their secondary with their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, out with a calf injury. They surrendered 431 total yards last week to the Titans — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland got thrashed in the first meeting between these two teams in the opening week of the season when Baltimore beat the Browns by a 38-6 score. But the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with revenge. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 meetings with the Browns — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against them when playing Cleveland. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (179) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (180). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (179) and the Cleveland Browns (180). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-5) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 34-17 win over Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite. Cleveland (9-3) has won four games in a row with their 41-35 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Baltimore did give up 388 yards of offense to the Cowboys — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens’ recent losing streak took place while defensive tackles Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams were out with injuries — but they both returned last week for the Cowboys game. Campbell is listed as questionable with his calf injury but hopefully, he will play. Baltimore is allowing only 19.2 PPG this season which is 4th best in the league. The Ravens got the ground game cracking last week with 294 yards on a 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry average which they will certainly rev-up again tonight. That will burn time off the clock — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Baltimore’s productivity on offense has dipped a bit after the season-ending injury to All-Pro left tackle, Ronnie Stanley. They are averaging 308.7 YPG with a 24.0 PPG scoring average over their last three games as compared to their 26.3 PPG and 337.9 YPG averages for the season. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Cleveland has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Browns return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.8 PPG along with 306.2 total YPG. Cleveland has played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Browns have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Cleveland has also played 28 of their last 42 home games Under the Total in the final four weeks of the season. The Browns lead the NFL in rushing with a 158 rushing YPG average — they will be looking to control the time of possession as well. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 38-6 loss to the Ravens in the opening week of the season on September 13th. The Browns have played 25 of their last 36 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (179) and the Cleveland Browns (180). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The loss on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. As it is, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +9.2 PPG. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as an underdog. Buffalo may be due for a letdown after their high-profile win in prime-time on Monday. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their 9-3 record, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +3.4 YPG. The Bills’ defense has taken a step back this season as they are allowing 375.4 total YPG which is 21st in the league. This unit lost some key pieces from the group that was third in total defense last season — their heart-and-soil leader, Lorenzo Alexander, retired in the offseason and defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson along with cornerback Kevin Johnson were  all poached in free agency. Defensive tackle Star Lotuleilei then opted out because of COVID. These losses have left this Bills’ defense small — they are allowing their opponents to average 126.0 rushing YPG which is 9th worst in the league. The Niners’ offense led by Nick Mullens gained 402 yards against them on Monday — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC foes. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) and the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss. The setback on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. After playing their last two games at home, the Steelers go back on the road where the Under is 38-12-1 in their last 51 games. Pittsburgh has also played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total on the road with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing their last five games Under the Total in those circumstances. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the Steelers’ last 6 games on the road as an underdog. Pittsburgh has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Buffalo surrendered 402 yards last week to the 49ers — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills have covered the point spread in four straight games — and not only have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least two of their last three games but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, Buffalo has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December — and the Bills have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) and the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (175) minus points versus the Washington Football Team (176). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-7) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in their temporary home at Glendale, Arizona on Monday. Washington (5-7) has won three games in a row after their 23-17 upset win at Pittsburgh on Monday as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: After the emotional high of giving the Steelers their first loss of the season, look for the Football Team to be flat in this game. As it is, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. This is a very difficult situation for Ron Rivera’s team to be playing on a short week while being away from home for the third straight week. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a game played on Monday Night Football. The Football Team has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing their last two games on the road. They will be without one of their best weapons on offense in running back Anthony Gibson who suffered an injury early in that game against Pittsburgh. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games away from home after suffering an upset loss. They did gain 402 yards against the Bills defense in the losing effort — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Niners have just seven points in each of the first halves of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is slowly getting healthier — and they could still make the playoffs if they win out the rest of their games. I don’t see this team giving up on Kyle Shanahan — and they have an opportunity to catch a Washington team that is not used to handling good times. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the San Francisco 49ers (175) minus points versus the Washington Football Team (176). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (151) and the Detroit Lions (152). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won four of their last five games after their 30-16 win against Philadelphia as an 8-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (5-7) comes off a 34-30 upset victory at Chicago as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. Detroit played with more energy and enthusiasm in their first game after being liberated from previous head coach Matt Patricia. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell has improved the atmosphere in the Lions’ locker room so expect a spirited effort from this team in playing the role of the spoiler at this point of the season. Detroit has lost four of their last six games — and they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And while the Lions surrendered 389 yards to the Bears, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Detroit has allowed 71 combined points in their last two games with both contests going Over the Total — but the Lions have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after allowing at least 25 pints in two straight games and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Additionally, Detroit has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. And while the Packers are allowing 24.9 Points-Per-Game this season, the Lions have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 24 PPG. Detroit has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December — and Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. The Packers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Green Bay gained 437 yards last week against the Eagles — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Packers held Philly to just a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half in their last contest. And while Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And while the Lions allow 29.8 PPG, Green Bay has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 24 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers won the first meeting between these two teams on September 20th by a 42-21 score — and Detroit has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (151) and the Detroit Lions (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (158). THE SITUATION: Arizona (6-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-28 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams last week as a 2.5-point underdog. New York (5-7) has won four straight games after their 17-12 upset victory at Seattle last Sunday as an 11-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Giants are a popular play this week in many circles after their high-profile signature victory — but they are just 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a point spread win. New York is playing great defense as of late as they are allowing only 16.5 PPG over their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Backup quarterback Colt McCoy completed 13 of 22 passes for 105 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the win — but the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Daniel Jones is expected to return to this game but his hamstring injury will limit the mobility that he has relied on to energize the offense since the season-ending injury to Saquon Barkley. Now New York returns home to MetLife where they are just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games as an underdog. The Giants score only 19.0 PPG at home while averaging 300.2 total YPG — they are being outscored by -5.6 PPG while being outgained by -59.0 net YPG when playing at home. Arizona managed only 232 yards last week while only having their offense on the field for 21:07 minutes in their loss to the Rams — but they are then 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Cardinals surrendered 463 yards to the Rams as well with 344 of those yards coming in the air — but they are then 23-11-3 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing at least 250 pain yards in their last game. Arizona goes back on the road where they are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games — and they have covered the point span in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona misses Chandler Jones on defense who suffered a season-ending injury earlier in the year. And Kyler Murray has not been as productive as of late either because of an undisclosed injury or a sophomore slump. Yet the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips east to play the Giants. They are still holding home teams to just 19.8 PPG along with 327.77 total YPG — and they are outscoring their home hosts by +5.4 PPG while outgaining them by +41.2 net YPG. 10* NFL Road Warrior Wipeout with the Arizona Cardinals (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (153) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (154). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (8-4) looks to rebound from their 41-35 upset loss at home to Cleveland last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Jacksonville (1-11) comes off a 27-24 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 10.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans were embarrassed last week against the Browns as they surrendered 38 points in the first half to go into the locker rooms trailing by 31 points. Tennessee has then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after trailing by at least three touchdowns in their last game. The Titans have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. Tennessee is third in the NFL who score 29.9 PPG — and they have averaged at least 6.41 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games. But the Titans have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in at least three straight games. Jacksonville played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing at home after suffering a loss on the road. The Jaguars have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by just three points. Jacksonville has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog. Now the Jags return home where they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher. Jacksonville has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Jaguars have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Jacksonville. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (153) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-2)looks to build off their 25-18 upset win at Arizona State last Saturday as a 3-point underdog. USC (4-0) remained undefeated last Sunday with their 38-13 win at home against Washington State as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: This appears to be a much improved team in Chip Kelly’s third year with the program at UCLA. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining these opponents by +57.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bruins’ two losses to Colorado and Oregon were by just nine combined points. UCLA has the opportunity to play the role of spoiler against their crosstown rivals — and they are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win while also 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They return home where are 2-0 this season with an average winning margin of +20.5 net PPG. The Bruins are averaging 228 rushing YPG which is 16th best in the nation. They have also not allowed more than 18 points in three of their last four games. A good running game along with strong defense is a good recipe to pull the upset. UCLA is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home as an underdog. USC is just 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Trojans have looked good in their last two games against Washington State and Washington — but they were shaky in their first two games. They needed to score two touchdowns in the final three minutes to get past Arizona State in their opening game — and then they only beat a terrible Arizona team by four points. The Wildcats have lost twelve straight games after their humiliating loss to the Sun Devils last night and the only time they stayed within single digits was against this Trojans team. USC has benefited from a +1.5 net turnover margin per game which is the second-best mark in the nation. The Trojans could not muster any semblances of a rushing attack last week against Washington State as they managed only five rushing yards. Quarterback Kedon Slovis did complete 25 of 32 passes for 287 yards with five touchdown passes last week but USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Trojans are just 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored on the road. Head coach Clay Helton’s team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has fared well recently in this series as the home team has covered the point spread in 12 of the last 17 meetings between these two teams. USC has not covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Rose Bowl playing at UCLA. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (133) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (134). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (5-3) has won two games in a row with their 42-31 win at North Texas back on December 3rd as a 1-point favorite. TCU (5-4) comes off a 29-22 upset win against Oklahoma State last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: That was an impressive victory for Louisiana Tech last week as they had not played since Halloween given COVID issues. The Bulldogs held a Mean Green offense that averages 518.0 Yards-Per-Game to just 386 total yards. Head coach Skip Holtz is underrated — and his teams tend to improve as the season moves forward. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. His teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with eighth days of rest. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games with the total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. Furthermore, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside Conference USA — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. TCU may be due for an emotional letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home over a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. TCU turned the ball over five times in the win but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game. The Horned Frogs stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games. And getting fired up to play a Group of Five teams may be an issue as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from Conference USA.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (133) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (257) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado Buffaloes (258). THE SITUATION: Utah (1-2) won their first game of the season last Saturday with their 30-24 win over Oregon State as a 14-point favorite. Colorado (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 24-13 win at Arizona as a 9.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Utah has been a consistent program under head coach Kyle Whittingham — and they have the opportunity to play spoiler for the Buffaloes Pac-12 Conference championship game aspirations. The Utes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win against a Pac-12 opponent. And while Utah did not commit a turnover last week, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Utes also rushed for 229 yards against the Beavers — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Utah has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado has covered the point spread in all four of their last games this season including their last two as the favorite. But the Buffaloes have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. Colorado defeated a terrible Wildcats team (that has now lost twelve straight games while only one time staying within single digits) despite committing three turnovers. The Buffaloes have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has benefited from a soft schedule — the Utes will be the best team they played in this abbreviated season. The Buffaloes also have the pressure of needing to win this game to stay alive to play in the Pac-12 championship game pending the results of USC later tonight. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 10* CFB Utah-Colorado Fox-TV Special with the Utah Utes (257) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado Buffaloes (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (114) minus the point(s) versus Wake Forest (113). THE SITUATION: Louisville (3-7) looks to bounce-back from a 34-27 loss at Boston College back on November 28th as a 1-point underdog. Wake Forest (4-3) takes the field again for the first time since November 14th when their four-game winning streak was snapped in a 59-53 loss at North Carolina as a 13-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisville lost to the Eagles despite outgaining them by +58 net yards. The Cardinals are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as a favorite. Despite their losing record, Louisville is outgaining their opponents by +72.2 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Wake Forest is being outgained by -10.0 net YPG this year due to their defense that is allowing 457.4 net YPG. The Demon Deacons surrendered a whopping 742 yards in their last game to the Tar Heels — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 525 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 29 of his 45 passes for 428 yards with four touchdown passes in a losing effort — but Wake Forest has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Demon Deacons have only committed one turnover in their seven games this season — but they have then failed to cover the 9 of their last 12 games after not committing more than one turnover in at least five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Louisville Cardinals (114) minus the point(s) versus Wake Forest (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (377) and the Arizona Wildcats (378). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (0-2) looks to bounce back from a 25-18 upset loss to UCLA as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (0-4) has lost eleven games in a row going back to last season after their 24-13 loss at home to Colorado as a 9.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Arizona State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Sun Devils were flat last week after not playing for three weeks given COVID issues. They started slowly with just a field goal in the first half before getting their offense going in the second half. Behind sophomore quarterback Jaylen Daniels, Arizona State did generate 442 yards of offense. Now the Sun Devils go back on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Arizona State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Wildcats were without sophomore quarterback Grant Gunnell who was injured on the first snap of their game with UCLA two games ago — but the word this afternoon from at least one Arizona beat writer is that he will return to the field tonight for this rivalry game. The Wildcats did gain 422 yards against the Buffaloes but struggled in the red zone. Arizona got 268 of those yards on the ground — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Even if Gunnell does not play and head coach Kevin Sumlin calls on freshman Will Plummer to be his quarterback tonight, the Wildcats should have success against this depleted Sun Devils’ secondary that is 118th in the nation by allowing 286.5 passing YPG. Arizona State lost safety Aashari Crosswell for the season when he decided to opt-out to prepare for the NFL (after being suspended by the team to start the season). Arizona stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record overall. The Wildcats have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Kevin Sumlin’s seat is red hot when it comes to his future with the Arizona program. This is a must-win for him — so expect him to pull out all the stops in being aggressive. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (377) and the Arizona Wildcats (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 45-0 victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers. Los Angeles (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 38-28 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. New England limited the Chargers to just 258 yards in the win while controlling the time of possession for 33:41 minutes. The Patriots ran the ball 43 times for 165 yards to keep rookie Justin Herbert off the field. New England has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They also held the Chargers to just 70 rushing yards — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots have simplified their game-plan with Cam Newton under center to be a run-first team that does not try to rely on his arm. Newton attempted only 19 passes on Sunday for a mere 69 yards. New England is third in the NFL by averaging 150.9 rushing YPG — but they now face the stout Rams’ defense that is third in the league by holding their opponents to just 93.1 rushing YPG. If the Patriots do not find success running the football, they lack a credible Plan B. Even if Newton was a better gunslinger at this point of his career, he lacks the weapons at wide receiver to be productive — especially against this Rams secondary which might be the best in the league. This commitment to running the football has helped the New England defense as they rank 12th in the league by allowing only 344.6 YPG. The Patriots have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. And while New England has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Rams have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Rams are without left tackle Andrew Whitworth for the rest of the season given the knee injury that put him on Injured Reserve. Head coach Bill Belichick will likely blitz heavily since quarterback Jared Goff struggles under pressure — so the absence of Whitworth will likely be noticed tonight. Los Angeles returns home where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 7 straight games Under the Total as the favorite — and the Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 38-28 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New England (6-6) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 45-0 victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles had their offensive clicking on all cylinders against the Cardinals. They held the ball for 38:53 minutes while cranking out 463 yards. Quarterback Jared Goff completed 37 of 47 passes for 351 yards. The Rams should build off their momentum for this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, while LA generated 30 first downs against Arizona, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 34 first downs in their last game. The Rams shined on defense as well as they held the Cardinals’ offensive attack to just 232 yards. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 yards. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. New England outclassed the Chargers last week despite only gaining 291 total yards. The Patriots scored two special teams touchdowns from a 70-yard punt return for a touchdown along with a 44-yard blocked field goal returned for a TD. But Bill Belichick’s team has not been very good at maintaining consistency as they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. New England is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have simplified their game-plan with Cam Newton under center to be a run-first team that does not try to rely on his arm. Newton attempted only 19 passes on Sunday for a mere 69 yards. New England is third in the NFL by averaging 150.9 rushing YPG — but they now face the stout Rams’ defense that is third in the league by holding their opponents to just 93.1 rushing YPG. If the Patriots do not find success running the football, they lack a credible Plan B. Even if Newton was a better gunslinger at this point of his career, he lacks the weapons at wide receiver to be productive — especially against this Rams secondary which might be the best in the league. Despite their 6-6 record, Los Angeles is getting outgained in yardage this season.

FINAL TAKE: New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season — and the Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December. Head coach Sean McVay has been thinking about this opportunity to avenge his team’s loss in Super Bowl 53 for a long time. His team has a decided talent edge this time around. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (375) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (376). THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (5-2) looks to bounce back from a 20-3 loss at Georgia Southern last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Southern Mississippi (2-7) returns to action to play their final game of the season after the last playing on November 21st where they lost to UTSA by a 23-20 score as a 9-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS MINUS THE POINTS: FAU still has plenty to play for — they need to win this game while hoping that Marshall loses tomorrow to win the Conference USA East Division and play in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Owls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. FAU has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Owls are playing outstanding defense in the first year under head coach Willie Taggart. They rank 3rd in the FBS by allowing only 12.4 PPG while also ranking 6th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 300.6 Yards-Per-Game. Defense travels — FAU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored. Southern Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. This team may not have much to play for at this point. They hired a new head coach in Will Hall after Jay Hopson resigned in September. The Tulane offensive coordinator takes over next season with Scotty Walden still serving as the interim head coach. The Golden Eagles are also down to their third-string quarterback after senior Jack Abraham entered the transfer portal and then Tate Whatley suffered a shoulder injury in their game against the Roadrunners. As it is, Southern Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: FAU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday — and the Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a Thursday. 10* CFB FAU-Southern Miss CBS Sports Network Special with the Florida Atlantic Owls (375) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (376). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (483) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (484). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-8) has lost five of their last six games after their 41-26 upset loss to Washington on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point favorite. Baltimore (6-5) has lost three straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore may be flat in this game after playing their arch-rivals on a short week (as Pittsburgh was last night against Washington). As it is, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Ravens really miss left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is out the season with an ankle injury. His absence explains much of the reason why Baltimore is averaging 18.3 PPG in their last three games with just 294.0 total YPG over that span. Their offense does get Lamar Jackson back for this game — but remember that Cam Newton struggled both physically and mentally (COVID has been shown to negatively impact brain functioning with many sufferers complaining of being in a fog for an extended period of time even after recovery). Don’t expect Jackson to be back at 100% tonight. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games when favored. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Dallas was humiliated on national television in their last game — and they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss by at least three touchdowns. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns. Dallas will certainly have the situational edge with almost two weeks of rest and preparation for this contest. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after playing on a Thursday. They also have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And while Dallas surrendered 182 rushing yards to the Football Team, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after allowing at least 175 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas can pull within one game of the NY Giants and Washington in the NFC East race — but the opportunity to play spoiler against the Ravens may be more realistic for this football team. Pride is on the line after how they played on Thanksgiving. 10* NFL Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (483) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (483) and the Baltimore Ravens (484). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-8) has lost five of their last six games after their 41-26 upset loss to Washington on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point favorite. Baltimore (6-5) has lost three straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens’ loss to the Steelers came on the heels of them losing by a 30-24 score to Tennessee the previous week — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after losing two in a row by 6 points or less. Baltimore has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Ravens do expect to get Calais Campbell back on their defensive line after he has missed time with a calf injury (and he was on the COVID list last week) — he took part in limited practice on Saturday. Baltimore may also get back defensive tackle Brandon Williams who is questionable but also took part in limited practice on Saturday. Getting one or both of those run stoppers will make a big difference for the Ravens defense that has taken a step back during their losing streak. Baltimore still ranks 3rd in the league by allowing only 19.5 PPG — and they rank 8th in the NFL by holding teams to 331.8 total YPG. The Ravens really miss left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is out the season with an ankle injury. His absence explains much of the reason why Baltimore is averaging 18.3 PPG in their last three games with just 294.0 total YPG over that span. Their offense does get Lamar Jackson back for this game — but remember that Cam Newton struggled both physically and mentally (COVID has been shown to negatively impact brain functioning with many sufferers complaining of being in a fog for an extended period of time even after recovery). Don’t expect Jackson to be back at 100% tonight. The Ravens will likely give a heavy dose of rushing attempts to J.K. Dobbins along with Mark Ingram who both were taken off the COVID list — and this commitment will likely decrease the number of possessions for both teams given the running clock. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as a favorite. Dallas has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Dallas surrendered 41 points to the Football Team despite only giving up 338 yards in that game. Washington scored only of their touchdowns from a 15-yard interception return. The larger issue for the Cowboys is their offense that is scoring only 14.7 PPG in their last seven games. Dallas has only topped 19 points once in their last six games. To compound matters on that side of the ball, they will be without both Zach Martin and Cam Erving to injury after both offensive linemen played on Thanksgiving. On the road, the Cowboys are scoring just 18.2 PPG along with averaging 337.0 total YPG. Dallas has played 17 of their last 25 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are likely to focus on their running games tonight — even with the wide receiver talent that the Cowboys have, their coaches do not want Andy Dalton throwing more than 40 times in this game. Baltimore has played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. 25* NFL Fox-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (483) and the Baltimore Ravens (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (486) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (485). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-20 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won four of their last five games after their 27-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week as a 4.5-point favorite. With COVID regulations precluding football games to be played in Santa Clara County, the 49ers have moved to Glendale, Arizona for their temporary home with this contest being played in the Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINTS: San Francisco outgained the Rams by +37 net yards by controlling the time of possession by over 34 minutes and limiting them to just 308 yards of offense. The Niners held a 7-3 halftime lead in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. And while San Francisco has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team is getting back some important players on both sides of the football. Running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman along with wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are back on offense. They got back Richard Sherman on defense last week to help a unit that is 4th in the league by allowing just 206.7 passing YPG. Despite a host of injuries all season, the Niners’ defense has been consistently strong under the guidance of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh — they are allowing only 315.2 total YPG which is 5th best in the NFL. The 49ers also rank 6th in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams from the AFC — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 43 games on Monday Night Football. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after winning four of their last five games — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in their last four games under those circumstances. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 61 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Quarterback Josh Allen has not played as well after a hot start to the season. Allen completed 69.3% of his passes for his first four games for a 330 passing YPG average with a 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt rate while averaging 3.0 touchdown passes per game. But in his last seven games, Allen is averaging only 243.1 passing YPG with a 7.43 YAP while tossing only 1.43 touchdowns per game. Buffalo is not playing as well on defense this season either. They are 18th in the league by allowing 243.5 passing YPG — and they are 25th in the NFL by allowing 129.6 rushing YPG. The Chargers gained 367 yards against them last week — and the Bills are 1-4-1 ATS  in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is getting outgained this season despite their 8-3 record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (486) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (485). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (485) and the San Francisco 49ers (486). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-3) has won four of their last five games after their 27-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week as a 4.5-point favorite. San Francisco (5-6) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-20 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5-point underdog. With COVID regulations precluding football games to be played in Santa Clara County, the 49ers have moved to Glendale, Arizona for their temporary home with this contest being played in the Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills surrendered 367 yards to the Chargers in their victory last week — but they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. That game still finished well below the 51.5 point total — and Buffalo has played 11 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total after playing their last game below the number. The Bills defeated the Chargers despite a -2 net turnover margin — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they suffered a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Buffalo defense should play better with the return of linebacker Matt Milano from injury. They go back on the road where they have played 36 of their last 53 road games as an underdog. The Bills have also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total as a dog. Additionally, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total for Monday Night Football. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC West rival — and they have played 3 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory over a divisional opponent. Despite a host of injuries all season, the Niners’ defense has been consistently strong under the guidance of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh — they are allowing only 315.2 total YPG which is 5th best in the NFL. San Francisco is 4th in the league by allowing just 206.7 passing YPG — and they got cornerback Richard Sherman back healthy last week in their upset win over the Rams where they allowed just 308 total yards. The 49ers also rank 6th in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Carry. The 43 combined points scored last week included a defensive touchdown for both teams. Nick Mullens was solid at quarterback in place of Jimmy Garoppolo as he completed 24 of 35 passes for 252 yards — but his mediocre 44.2 Quarterback Rating this season is below the 59.9 QBR that Garoppolo posted this season. Under Mullens, the Niners are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging just 322.0 total YPG in their last three games. While this is a technical home game for San Francisco, it is, in practice, a road game — and the 49ers are holding teams to just 18.7 PPG along with 274.0 total YPG when playing away from home. Furthermore, the 49ers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when lists in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in that point range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (485) and the San Francisco 49ers (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (487) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (488). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-7) has won two straight games after their 41-16 upset victory at Dallas on Thanksgiving by a 41-16 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-0) remained unbeaten last Wednesday with their 19-14 win over Baltimore as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has the situational edge in this game with them having eleven days between games while the Steelers are on a short week after playing their rescheduled game with the Ravens on Wednesday. The Football Team is finding their groove under first-year head coach Ron Rivera now that he has found his quarterback in Alex Smith. Washington has scored 29.3 PPG in the three games Smith has started. He is completing 69% of his passes (5th best in the NFL) while leading an offense that is 5th in Success Rate in those three games. The Football Team tends to build off their momentum when they are playing well. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win. Furthermore, the Football Team has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 21 points against an NFC East rival. Their triumph over the Cowboys came after they defeated Cincinnati by a 20-9 score — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. Smith’s efficient game-management is complementing the tough Washington defense that is 8th in the NFL against the pass and 5th against the run. The Football Team has 36 sacks and 66 hits on the quarterback which are both the second-best marks in the league. Pittsburgh returns to action after that physical game with the Ravens — they were flat and had to conduct a second-half comeback to eke out a 24-19 win against Dallas after their first game with Baltimore this season. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh is the lone undefeated team in the league but they have benefited from the second-easiest schedule. They have survived five close games decided by one possession. The Steelers have not allowed more than 14 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh will be without running back James Conner again this week after they rushed for only 68 yards last week. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh is dealing with some injuries with star linebacker Bud Dupree out the season which makes them a bit thin at that position with Devin Bush already out the year. They will miss his eight sacks and eight hits on the quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger also missed the last three practices given his injured knee. Expect Washington to keep it close. 10* NFL Washington-Pittsburgh Fox-TV Special with the Washington Football Team (487) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-7) has lost three of their last four games with their 31-3 loss at home to New Orleans last week as a 17-point underdog. Kansas City (10-1) has won six games in a row after their 27-24 win at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver was embarrassed as an organization last week with their four-touchdown loss the culmination of their COVID outbreak that left them with their entire active quarterback depth chart inactive. The Broncos have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. Denver has also covered the point spread i 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Broncos did not have a credible passing attack last week with wide receiver Kendall Hinton serving as the quarterback. He completed only one pass of 13 yards. Denver does get Drew Lock back this week under center who should have something to prove. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they managed only 112 yards of offense last week, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. The key to this game will be slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Denver has held their last three opponents to just 290.7 total YPG. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Kansas City is averaging a robust 466.7 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 straight games after averring at least 450 YPG in their lat three games. Despite that offensive productivity, the Chiefs are only outscoring these three opponents by +3.0 PPG. These last three games have been decided by just nine combined points. Furthermore, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 games in Weeks 10 through 13.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs won the first meeting between these two teams by a 43-16 score — with two of those touchdowns coming from a defensive score and a special teams TD. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-7) has lost three of their last four games with their 31-3 loss at home to New Orleans last week as a 17-point underdog. Kansas City (10-1) has won six games in a row after their 27-24 win at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where the Under is a decisive 29-9-1 in their last 39 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while the Chiefs score 32.0 PPG at home, they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 14 points. After Patrick Mahomes was asked to throw the ball 49 times last week, expect the offensive brain trust to run the ball more this week to take some pressure off of him — and that will burn time off the clock. The Kansas City defense is underrated as they rank 6th in the league by allowing 21.6 Points-Per-Game. The Chiefs have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December. Denver has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December. The Broncos have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Denver has held their last three opponents to just 290.7 total YPG. The Broncos have played three straight games that finished Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. And while Denver trailed at halftime by a 17-0 score, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being behind at halftime by at least two touchdowns. The Broncos have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Moving forward, the Under is 13-5-1 in Denver’s last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against familiar teams from the AFC West.

FINAL TAKE: The first meeting between these two teams finished with Kansas City winning by a 43-16 score on October 25th in Denver. Mahomes was limited to completing just 15 of 23 passes for 200 yards — the Chiefs scored touchdowns from their defense and special teams to reach the 40-point threshold. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total one playing with revenge from a loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (465) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (466). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (8-3) has won three in a row after their 27-25 win at Jacksonville last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Tennessee (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 45-26 upset win at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee has pulled off two straight upset victories with their revenge triumph over the Colts preceded by their 30-24 win at Baltimore. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after an upset win on the road by at least two touchdowns. Tennessee raced out to a 35-14 lead over Indianapolis last week — yet they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, the Titans are 19-39-1 ATS in their last 59 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Tennessee surrendered 280 passing yards to the Colts in the winning effort, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Titans have the kind of defense that Browns’ QB Baker Mayfield tends to play his best against because they lack a pass rush which pushes him to hurry his throws in the pocket. Cleveland has won eight straight games when Mayfield posts a Passer Rating of at least (a modest) 70. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 258 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. Mayfield has now played three straight games without throwing an interception. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Browns lead the NFL by averaging 161 rushing YPG this season — and Nick Chubb has rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games. The Titans are vulnerable against good rushing teams where they rank in the middle of the pack by allowing 116 rushing YPG (15th) and 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry (16th). Cleveland rushed for 207 yards last week on 33 carries — and not only have they then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. They averaged 7.4 Yards-Per-Play overall last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Cleveland is banged up in their secondary with injuries but they do get defensive end extraordinaire Myles Garrett back from the COVID list for this game. 

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is only outgaining their opponents by +1.1 net YPG this season despite their 8-3 record — and they are being outgained by -54.3 net YPG when playing at home. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite. Expect a close game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (465) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (444) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (443). THE SITUATION: Duke (2-7) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 56-33 upset loss at Georgia Tech as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Miami (7-1) takes the field again after last playing on November 14th when they upset Virginia Tech on the road by a 25-24 score as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes have been hit by COVID which contributed to their last two games being canceled. Practices have been disrupted and it remains unclear what players will or will not be available for this game. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not playing for at least two weeks. And while the Hurricanes have won four games in a row, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least two games in a row. Miami is eking out close games — their last three victories have been by nine combined points despite being a double-digit favorite in two of those games. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as a favorite laying at least 14 points against FBS foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as a favorite. Duke has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing at least two games in a row. Quarterback Chase Brice completed only 19 of 40 passes against the Yellow Jackets but he did generate 273 passing yards with two touchdown passes — and the Blue Devils are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Duke is scoring 36.7 PPG — they should keep up with this Miami who has allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG and 459.5 Yards-Per-Game. The Blue Devils return home where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They are also 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Duke will be confident in this game as they have pulled the upset against the Hurricanes in each of the last two seasons. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in December under head coach David Cutcliffe — and the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games in December. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (444) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (443). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (402) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (401). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 17-7 upset loss at Northwestern two weeks ago as a 7-point favorite. Indiana (5-1) looks to build off their 27-11 win over Maryland as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin did not play last week after their game was canceled because of COVID issues. The extra week to rest and prepare should help the Badgers as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a bye week. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Wisconsin defense is playing well as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Wildcats to just 263 yards, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing at least 275 yards in their last game. They return home to Madison where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. They lost their dynamic dual-threat quarterback, Michael Penix, for the season last week to a torn ACL. Sophomore Jack Tuttle takes over under center — the Utah transfer is highly-regarded but he will not run the yardage that Penix did in this offense. The Hoosiers outrushed the Terrapins by +185 net yards last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 yards.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 games in Madison against the Badgers. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Wisconsin Badgers (402) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (401). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (412) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (411). THE SITUATION: Auburn (5-3) looks to rebound from their 42-13 loss at Alabama last Saturday as a 25.5-point underdog. Texas A&M (6-1) has won five games in a row with their 20-7 win over LSU last week as a 16-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Auburn should pick themselves off the mat after getting thrashed by their in-state rival in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are a perfect 4-0 with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. Auburn has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home. And while they had covered the point spread in their previous three games before getting blown out by the Crimson Tide, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. It is not often that this program is getting the points at home — they have only been a home dog six times since 2016. Auburn has covered the point spread in 5 of those 6 games with four outright upset victories — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games when getting the points. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December. Texas A&M managed only 267 yards against LSU last week despite having the football for 33:32 minutes. The Aggies averaged a mere 3.76 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain more than 275 yards in their last contest. With their 6-1 record, the Aggies are in the college football playoff hunt — especially with Ohio State at risk of not playing a minimum of five Big Ten games to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game (although the conference will change their rules to give the Buckeyes eligibility for that game, if necessary). But the pressure could be too much for this Texas A&M team that only beat Vanderbilt by 5 points earlier this season. The Aggies did flex their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just 267 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now Texas A&M goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has only covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Auburn to play the Tigers. Expect a close game. 25* CFB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Auburn Tigers (412) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (411). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (393) minus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (394). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (6-2) has won two of their last three games after their 50-44 win over Texas Tech last Saturday as a 12-point favorite. TCU (4-4) has won three of their last four contests with their 59-23 victory at Kansas last week as a 23-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Oklahoma State offense got cranking by generating 539 yards of offense in the win. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. And while Oklahoma State has allowed at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of two straight contests. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Horned Frogs’ blowout over the Jayhawks was helped by two defensive touchdowns along with a 37-yard punt return for a TD. Yet starting quarterback Max Duggan competed only 3 of 11 passes for a mere 96 yards which is not going to get it done against this Cowboys team. The Horned Frogs return home where they are just 1-3 this season while failing to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games. TCU has been hit hard by COVID with at least 30 players being infected at one point. And while head coach Gary Patterson’s team would love to play spoiler against this Oklahoma State team with Big 12 Championship Game aspirations, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has thrived in expected close games under head coach Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have won ten of their last twelve games when listed in the +/- 3-point range while going 8-2-2 ATS in those contests. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-TCU ESPN2 Special with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (393) minus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (394). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (327) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (328). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (8-1) has won five straight games after their 70-20 blowout victory at UL-Monroe as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Appalachian State (7-2) looks to build off their 47-10 win over Troy as a 14-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette has had this game circled all year after losing to Appalachian State for the second straight year in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game last season — and that loss was the fourth setback to the Mountaineers in the last two seasons after they also dropped the regular-season matchup between these two teams. The Ragin’ Cajuns have already punched their ticket to play in the conference championship for the third straight time in a row with the opportunity to avenge their only loss this season with a date against Coastal Carolina — but defeating this Appalachian State team remains a very high priority for head coach Billy Napier and the fourteen starters back from last season. UL-Lafayette should build off their momentum from last week as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they generated 511 yards last week against the War Hawks, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. UL-Lafayette is averaging 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry which is 6th in the nation — and they have outrushed their last two opponents by at least +131 net rushing yards. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after outrushing their last two opponents by at least +125 net rushing yards. This team is undefeated on the road with a 5-0 mark — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. UL-Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games with the total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. And in their last 11 games on the road as an underdog, the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win at home by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, while the Mountaineers enjoyed a 34-10 halftime lead last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after leading by at least 24 points at halftime of their last game. Appalachian State rushed for 275 yards last week which helped to fuel their 554 total yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The scoring punch has been down this season for this team as their 32.8 PPG scoring average is -6.0 PPG below what they tallied last year even though eight starters are back from that unit. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. And in their last 9 games as a favorite, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: I waited to get the weather update today for Boone, North Carolina, because I would be less enthusiastic about the Ragin’ Cajuns if the temperature dropped below 32 degrees with rain expected. The weather reports call for temperatures in the 40s during the game with the wind not much of a factor — and that should help the UL-Lafayette passing game. The Mountaineers have a new head coach this year in Shawn Clark who was an assistant to the Scott Satterfield and Eliah Drinkwater coached-teams of the previous two seasons that have dominated the Ragin’ Cajuns. The motivational edge for UL-Lafayette should make the difference tonight. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (327) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (323) and the North Texas Mean Green (324). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (4-3) returns to action for the first time since October 31st when they upset UAB in double-overtime by a 37-34 score as a 12-point underdog. North Texas (3-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 49-17 loss at UTSA as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This Louisiana Tech offense averages only 334.4 total YPG which is 110th in the nation. They are only averaging 2.4 Yards-Per-Carry which is third-to-last in the FBS. They managed only 49 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 75 yards in their last game. This is not a big play offense as they are only averaging 6.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in their passing game which is 103rd in the nation. And the Bulldogs are converting in only 38.7% of their third downs which is tied for 87th in the nation. They go back on the road where they are averaging only 23.7 PPG along with 313.7 YPG which is -6.6 PPG and -20.7 net YPG below their season averages. Louisiana Tech has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after the first month of the season. And they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in December under head coach Skip Holtz. North Texas has played 9 straight games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while their game with UTSA finished just below the 68 point total, they have then played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Mean Green has played two straight Unders with their previous 27-17 win over Rice finished well below the 65 total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. North Texas did allow a whopping 624 yards against the Roadrunners last week — but the Under is 16-6-1 in their last 23 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Mean Green have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Despite the bad defenses in this game, the value is with the Under given a total that is in the mid-60s. 10* CFB Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (323) and the North Texas Mean Green (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (279) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-4) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Tennessee in overtime back on November 22nd. Pittsburgh (10-0) remained unbeaten this season on November 22nd with their 27-3 win at Jacksonville as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore enters this game with their backs against the wall with a losing streak, limited practice time, and several players out because of injury. Lamar Jackson, Willie Snead IV, Mark Andrews, and Matthew Judon are not expected to be removed from the COVID list at noon PM ET today. Defensive linemen Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell are out with injuries along with offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and D.J. Fluker. Yet asking the Steelers to cover a double-digit point spread even under these conditions is probably too much to ask against a bitter divisional rival. The Ravens surrendered 436 yards in their loss to Tennessee while getting outgained by -117 net yards. Yet Baltimore has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 350 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. The Ravens hopes to get J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram back off the COVID list this afternoon for this game. Baltimore will run the ball plenty in this game to burn time off the clock — they rushed the ball 47 times for 265 yards even with a healthy Jackson in the first meeting between these two teams. While the Ravens lost that game by a 28-24 score as a 4-point favorite, they outgained the Steelers in that game by a decisive +236 net yards but were undone by a -3 net turnover margin. QB Robert Griffin III can still move the football with his legs — he rushed for 50 yards in his start against Pittsburgh in Week 17 last season. The Ravens go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games —and they are 31-14-6 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home under head coach John Harbaugh. Pittsburgh does struggle with complacency at times — they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games as a double-digit favorite. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in eight of their ten games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least eight of their last ten games. Pittsburgh gained 373 yards in their win over Jacksonville last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. While the Steelers are not facing the same attrition as the Ravens, they will be without running back James Conner who is on the COVID list. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games against AFC North foes — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. Look for the Ravens to keep this game close. 10* NFL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (279) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (279) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-4) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Tennessee in overtime back on November 22nd. Pittsburgh (10-0) remained unbeaten this season on November 22nd with their 27-3 win at Jacksonville as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This game has been rescheduled three times — and while the players may not be in optimal shape to play this game given limited practice time, the defensive game plans should be very fine-tuned — especially with this being a rematch from the Steelers’ 28-24 upset victory as a 4-point underdog on November 1st. Pittsburgh leads the NFL by allowing only 17.4 PPG — and they are second in the league by holding their opponents to just 4.94 Yards-Per-Play. The Steel Curtain has held their last three opponents to just 10.7 PPG along with only 299.0 total YPG. The Under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and the Under is 38-18-2 in their last 58 games after a point prawn victory. The Steelers held the Jaguars to just 206 total yards in their last game — and the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. On offense, Pittsburgh did gain 373 yards against Jacksonville — and the Under is 30-11-2 in their last 43 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They will be without running back James Conner in this game who is on the COVID list. But the list for the Ravens is much longer — headlined by quarterback Lamar Jackson being out because of COVID. Robert Griffin III will be under center for Baltimore who leaves the offense even more limited in what they can do in the passing game. RG3 has just one start in the last three years — and it was against these Steelers’ last season when he completed only 11 of 21 passes for 96 yards in Week 17. The Ravens hopes to get J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram back off the COVID list this afternoon for this game. Baltimore will run the ball plenty in this game to burn time off the clock — they rushed the ball 47 times for 265 yards even with a healthy Jackson in the first meeting. The Ravens have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. Baltimore has scored only 21.7 PPG while averaging 309.7 YPG over their last three games with their offensive missing their All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is out the year with an injury. The Ravens defense surrendered 423 yards to the Titans — but they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they are allowing only 18.8 PPG along with 331.6 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Under is 17-7-2 in the Steelers’ last 26 games against AFC foes — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against divisional opponents. 25* NFL NBC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (279) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (276) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (3-6-1) has lost two games in a row with their 22-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog. Seattle (7-3) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 28-21 win over Arizona as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia needs a win — and they have been facing adversity all week given the struggles on quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles have not covered the point spread in their last two games either — but they have then covered the point spread in 40 of their last 60 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles are playing better defense as of late. They have allowed 19.3 PPG over their last three games along with just 323.7 total YPG which is over -6 PPG and -19.0 net YPG below their season averages. Five of the Seahawks’ seven wins have been by one scoring margin — so they have not been blowing teams out. They are just +0.2 PPG when playing on the road while allowing 30.4 PPG and getting outgained by -20.2 net YPG. The Seahawks have not been a reliable road favorite under head coach Pete Carroll as they have failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 73 games away from home as a favorite up to 7 points. Head coach Doug Pederson tends to see his team perform well against powerful offensive teams. Seattle is scoring 31.8 PPG while averaging 400 total YPG this season — but the Eagles have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 29 PPG and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games against teams who average at least 375 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will have double-revenge on their minds as well after losing twice to Seattle last year by identical 17-9 scores — including in the NFC wildcard playoffs. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (276) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (275) and the Philadelphia Eagles (276). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-3) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 28-21 win over Arizona as a 3-point favorite. Philadelphia (3-6-1) has lost two games in a row with their 22-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 straight home games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. Philadelphia managed only 315 yards in the loss to the Browns with QB Carson Wentz continuing to struggle. Wentz has a career-low 58.4% completion percentage along with a Passer Rating of 73.3 which is also a career-low. The Eagles are scoring only 19.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 291.3 total YPG. Wentz is flailing behind a disaster of an offensive line that has been ravaged with injuries. With the season-ending injury to Lane Johnson, Philly will be using their tenth different offensive line configuration for this game. The Eagles have allowed 40 sacks this season which is the most in the league — and they are last in adjusted sack rate. But the Philadelphia defense is playing better as of late. They have allowed 19.3 PPG over their last three games along with just 323.7 total YPG which is over -6 PPG and -19.0 net YPG below their season averages. Now the Eagles return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total in November including six straight Unders. Seattle is also playing better on defense as of late after holding the Cardinals to just 314 yards of offense. Funny what happens when safety Jamal Adams gets healthy again while adding defensive lineman Carlos Dunlap from Cincinnati into the mix. The Seahawks have registered 16 sacks over their last four games. And while the 374.3 YPG they have allowed in their last three games since acquiring Dunlap which is over 60 YPG below their season average. Seattle also seemed to make a philosophical change last week to get back to running the ball more. They had 31 rushing attempts in that game which was more than the 28 pass attempts of Russell Wilson. Getting Carlos Hyde back at running back helped — he had rushed for 79 yards in his first game back from injury. Chris Carson returns to action tonight as well after he has been out for injury — so this should be a heavy ground game attack for the Seahawks. Wilson was beginning to make mistakes with turnovers feeling the pressure to carry the team with his arm — so head coach Pete Carroll dialed back the “Let Russ Cook” directives. Running the ball more also helps the defense — the commitment to running the football kept Kyler Murray only on the field for less than 25 minutes last week. Additionally, the ankle injury to right tackle Braden Shell will likely compel more rushing attempts from this team since he thrives in pass protection — and his replacement, Cedric Ogbuehi, struggles in that area. Now Seattle goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams who do not have a winning record at home. They also have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total as the favorite. Additionally, while the Eagles are averaging only 5.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Seahawks have played 22 of their last 29 road games Under the Total against teams who average no more than 5.7 YPA. And while Seattle averages 31.8 PPG, Philadelphia has played 7 straight home games Under the Total against teams who average at least 24 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played twice last season in Philadelphia including the NFC wildcard game with both games ending in a 17-9 victory for the Seahawks. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. While I expect more than 26 combined points this time around, look for a lower-scoring game that stays below 50 combined points. Maybe even some scoring drives will (finally) have to settle for some field goals! 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (275) and the Philadelphia Eagles (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-5) has lost four games in a row after their 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota back on November 16th as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 34-31 loss in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. Green Bay generated 367 yards in the loss to the Colts — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Packers have averaged at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. Green Bay surrendered 280 passing yards in their last game — but they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. The Packers return home to Lambeau Field where they are holding their opponents to 304.5 total YPG which is almost 40 YPG below their season average. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Chicago has played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home in Soldier Field. The Bears have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago will be turning back to Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback tonight with Nick Foles doubtful with his hip injury. He takes over an offense that is scoring only 19.1 PPG while ranking second-to-last with a 300.9 total YPG average. Over their last three games, the Bears are scoring only 17.7 PPG along with averaging just 284.3 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and Green Bay has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against NFC North foes. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-5) has lost four games in a row after their 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota back on November 16th as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 34-31 loss in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago scored only 6 points in the first half against the Vikings after not scoring in the first half of their last game against Tennessee — but this organization has covered the point spread in a decisive 53 of their last 83 gams after not scoring more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. The Bears managed only 149 total yards against Minnesota with just 124 of these yards in the air. Chicago has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Nick Foles was knocked out of that game last week with a hip injury that will keep him out of this game. Mitchell Trubisky will be the starting quarterback in this game — and I think he should play better than he did earlier in the season. Trubisky has nothing to lose now so the pressure should be off. This will also be his first start with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor calling the plays since he took over those responsibilities two games ago for head coach Matt Nagy. Don’t be surprised if Trubisky is more active with his legs. The team will get running back David Montgomery back for this game as well which will be a big help — he leads the team with 472 rushing yards. Playing Green Bay may help since they are last in the NFL in Red Zone defense with opposing offenses scoring in 97% of their trips inside the Packers’ 20-yard line this season. The Bears’ defense should keep them in this game. They are 9th in the NFL by allowing 340.1 Yards-Per-Game — and they are holding their opponents to 20.9 PPG. Chicago has not allowed more than 96 rushing yards in seven straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against fellow NFC North opponents. Green Bay blew a 28-14 lead last week against the Colts — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after owning a two-touchdown or better halftime lead in their last game. Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 38 passes for 311 yards in that game — but the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Green Bay has averaged 6.8, 6.7, and 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. Now the Packers return home where they have struggled in their last two games with a narrow 24-20 win over lowly Jacksonville and getting upset by the Vikings by a 28-22 score. Perhaps the team misses the fans in Lambeau Field? There will be an audience of up to 500 tonight consisting of friends and family — but that will not accomplish much regarding the energy level in the stadium. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Rodgers is just 6-12-1 straight-up in his last nineteen starts again teams with a top-ten defense. And while he is leading an offense that is third in seventh in total yardage, Chicago has won eight of their last eleven games when facing a top-ten offense. A Bears’ victory pulls them within one game of first place of the Packers in the NFC North — expect a close game. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-28 upset loss to Dallas as a 7-point favorite. Carolina (4-7) comes off a 20-0 shutout victory over Detroit last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when picking themselves up off the mat after a loss under head coach Mike Zimmer as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games are a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Minnesota has been playing much better football as of late — and they still have an outside shot to make the playoffs. They have held their last three opponents to just 21.3 PPG along with 315.3 total Yards-Per-Game despite last week’s results. The Vikings have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Kirk Cousins played well last week as he completed 22 of 30 passes for 314 yards with two touchdown passes and join interceptions. Running back Dalvin Cook has been sublime this season (when healthy) — he rushed for 115 yards with a touchdown on 27 carries last week. Minnesota gained 430 yards in the losing effort to the Cowboys — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings are scoring 27.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging 434.0 total YPG. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is out for this game with after a positive COVID test but I expect this to be the Cook show on the ground against a defense that allows opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Minnesota stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina is likely due for a letdown after their dominant performance against the hapless Lions. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held Detroit (with an injured Matthew Stafford who had not practiced all week) to just 185 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Carolina is averaging only 332.0 total YPG in their last three contests — and they will be without running back Christian McCaffrey who was declared out with a shoulder injury for this game. The Panthers snapped a five-game losing streak with their win over the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing at least four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in November under Zimmer’s leadership. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (261) and the Indianapolis Colts (262). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-3) has won two of their last three games with their 30-24 upset victory at Baltimore last Sunday as a 6-point underdog. Indianapolis (7-3) has won two straight as well as four of their last five games after their 34-31 win over Green Bay last week as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory in their last game. Despite the win last week, Tennessee has only averaged 23.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging a mere 315.0 total YPG. They will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to Indianapolis back on November 12th by a 34-17 score — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least two touchdowns. Expect plenty of running from the Titans behind Derrick Henry in this rematch with the Titans the top rushing team in the NFL. That will burn time off the clock and shorter the number of possessions for both teams. Tennessee has also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total as an underdog of up to 3 points. The Titans are completing 65.3% of their passes this season — and they are playing a Colts team that has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing at least 64% of their passes. Indianapolis enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Packers last week — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after producing a +2 net turnover or better margin in their last game. Indianapolis has scored 34 points in their last two games with both games going Over the Total with at least 51 combined points scored — but this sets up the Under as a nice contrarian play. The Colts have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Indy has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after seeing at least 50 combined points scored in their last two games. The Colts are top-five in defense by allowing only 20.8 PPG — and they hold their visitors to just 293.2 total YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing in Indianapolis. Expect this rematch to be lowering scoring than the one they played just 17 days ago. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (261) and the Indianapolis Colts (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (297) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (298). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to USC last week as a 1-point favorite. Washington (2-0) comes off a 44-27 win against Arizona last week as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: That was just the first game of the season for head coach Kyle Whittingham with his team with COVID issues causing the cancellation of their games with Arizona and UCLA — and this game was rescheduled earlier this week after Arizona State had an outbreak. Look for this team to be much improved this week with a week of practice that can focus on the mistakes from last week — the proverbial coaching jump from Game One to Game Two. Whittingham returned an inexperienced team that has just nine starters back from the group that finished 11-3 last season. Whittingham tapped redshirt sophomore Cameron Rising as his quarterback — but the Texas transfer lasted about a quarter last week before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Whittingham now turns to another transfer in Jake Bentley who came over in the offseason from South Carolina. He will benefit from the week of practice with the first unit along with a game-plan more tailored to his skill set. The defense should play better as well with nine new starters — they allowed the Trojans to gain 357 yards which was not a bad effort against that powerful offensive group. It was five turnovers and a -3 net turnover margin that hurt the Utes last week. They did hold USC to just 93 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Utah is dangerous as an underdog as they are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road dog. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. And in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning record at home, Utah has covered the point spread in 21 of these games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win at home against a Pac-12 opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. The Huskies have 12 starters back the team that finished 8-5 last season. But Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies went from their expected rivalry game with Washington State in the Apple Cup to their most difficult opponent so far this season midweek with the Utes given the scheduling change. The Utah defense should keep this a close game. 10* CFB Utah-Washington ABC-TV Special with the Utah Utes (297) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (242) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (241). THE SITUATION: Ole Miss (3-4) has won two straight games with their 59-42 victory over South Carolina as a 12.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 14th. Mississippi State (2-5) looks to rebound from their 31-24 loss at Georgia last Saturday as a 26.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory. Quarterback Matt Corral completed 28 of 32 passes for 513 yards with four touchdown passes in the victory. Head coach Lane Kiffin can coach offense. This Rebels team is 11th in the FBS by averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Play — and they rank 4th in the nation by averaging 10.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They put up 42 points against Alabama — and they are averaging 42.5 PPG along with 603.0 total YPG when playing at home. Ole Miss did surrender 548 yards to the Gamecocks two weeks ago — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rebels have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. It will be difficult for the Bulldogs to keep up with the Ole Miss offense even under first-year head coach Mike Leach. Mississippi State has failed to score more than 14 points in four of their seven games. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a losing record at home (Ole Miss is 1-3 at home). Mississippi State has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Rebels will have revenge on their minds as well after losing last year’s Egg Bowl by a 21-20 score at Mississippi State. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Mississippi Rebels (242) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (241). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (180) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (179). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (1-3) looks to rebound from getting shutout out two weeks ago on November 14th by a 24-0 score as a 7.5-point favorite against Indiana. Northwestern (5-0) comes off a big 17-7 upset win at home against Wisconsin last week as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for Northwestern to suffer an emotional letdown after their big win over the Badgers that put them in the college football playoff conversation. The Wildcats were outgained by -103 net yards but benefited from a +4 net turnover margin. Northwestern is only outgaining their opponents by +21.8 net YPG — and they are only outgaining their opponents by +3.5 net YPG on the road. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games are games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Northwestern simply does not score enough to be a reliable two-touchdown favorite. They are scoring only 21.7 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 290.7 total YPG. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. And while Northwestern has played all five of their games Under the Total, the Wildcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing five straight Unders. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game where no more than 24 combined points were scored. The Spartans should play better with an extra week to prepare. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. Head coach Mel Tucker has also seen his teams cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Northwestern-Michigan State ESPN Special with the Michigan State Spartans (180) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (179). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (213) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (214). THE SITUATION: Troy (4-4) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four after their 20-17 upset loss to Middle Tennessee as an 11-point favorite. Appalachian State (6-2) looks to rebound from their 34-23 loss at Coastal Carolina last Saturday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, Troy has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Troy is scoring only 22.7 PPG in their last three games which is -5.3 PPG below their season average — and the 349.8 total YPG they average on the road is -54.3 net YPG below their season average. The Trojans have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 4 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points, Troy has played all 4 games Under the Total. Appalachian State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mountaineers rushed for 204 yards in the loss to the Chanticleers — and they have then seen the Under go 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Appalachian State is scoring 26.0 PPG while averaging 383.7 total YPG in their last three contests — and those numbers are -5.0 PPG and -61.7 net YPG below their season average. The Mountaineers defense has only managed to force one turnover in each of their last two games as well — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Appalachian State does return home where they are holding their opponents to just 17.8 PPG and 314.0 total YPG. The Mountaineers have played 4 straight games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November — and Troy has played 4 straight games Under the Total in November. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (213) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (214). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (199) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (200). THE SITUATION: Ball State (2-1) has won two games in a row with their 31-25 victory over Northern Illinois on November 18th as a 14.5-point favorite. Toledo (2-1) comes off a 45-28 win at Eastern Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite on November 18th in midweek MACtion.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State is a veteran team with 14 starters back including six all-conference players from the group that was 4-4 in Mid-American Conference play last season. That team outgained their conference opponents by +31 Yards-Per-Game but too often stymied by bad luck. The Cardinals have been typically a dangerous underdog to keep their games close under head coach Mike Neu in his fifth year with the program. Ball State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road getting the points. Led by senior quarterback Drew Plitt along with another six senior starters on offense, the Cardinals are scoring 33.3 PPG this season while averaging 476.3 total YPG. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while the Rockets went into halftime with a 24-7 lead over the Eagles, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after owning at least a 17-point halftime lead. Senior quarterback Eli Peters is questionable for this game wit the knee injury that knocked him out of last week’s game. Sophomore Carter Bradley came on as his understudy to complete 5 of 8 passes for 108 yards. Peters and Bradley combined for 298 passing yards — but Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Rockets have played their last two games Over the Total — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Overs. They return home to the Glass Bowl where they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to Toledo to face the Rockets. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Ball State Cardinals (199) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (136) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (135). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (6-2) has won two games in a row with their 59-53 victory over Wake Forest as a 13-point favorite back on November 14th. Notre Dame (8-0) returns to action after a bye week last week coming off a 45-31 win at Boston College as a 13-point favorite on November 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: With the Fighting Irish opening as the second-ranked team in the college football playoff, the pressure is on for this team to win out their remaining games to play in the ACC Championship Game with a win securing one of the four spots in the college football playoff. Yet Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning at least eight games in a row. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. Notre Dame averaged 7.58 Yards-Per-Play to defeat the Eagles two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after averaging at least 7.25 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. The Irish have scored at least 31 points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 31 points in four straight games. The foundation of this outstanding Notre Dame offense this season has been their offensive line that returned all five of their starters. But that chemistry and cohesion are now in flux with two starters on that line out for this game. Center Jarrett Patterson is out the season with a broken foot and right guard Tommy Kraemer, a four-year starter, is out this week after having an appendectomy. Those are ominous absences for a team that has looked vulnerable on defense in their last two games as they have surrendered 71 combined points in those games. North Carolina rallied from a three-touchdown deficit to defeat the Demon Deacons two weeks ago — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Sophomore quarterback Sam Howell completed 32 of 45 passes for 550 yards with six touchdown passes in the victory — and the Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. North Carolina has a potent offense that should be able to keep up with the Irish. The Tar Heels rank 4th in the nation by averaging 563.4 total YPG — and their 43.1 PPG scoring average is 10th in the nation. North Carolina has struggled on defense — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. They host this game in their final conference home game this season where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina can play this game loose in the role of the spoiler in this one — and they are undefeated at home with a 4-0 mark while scoring 48.5 PPG and averaging a whopping 609.8 total YPG in those games. Expect a close game with the Tar Heels in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (136) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (144) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (143). THE SITUATION: Texas (5-2) finally returns to action for the first time since November 7th after their 17-13 win over West Virginia as a 6.5-point favorite. Iowa State (6-2) has won three straight games with their 45-0 win over Kansas State last week as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State is 6-1 in the Big 12 with aspirations of reaching the Big 12 championship game — so they will be feeling the pressure. Yet the Cyclones are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Iowa State gained 539 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They also held the Wildcats to just 149 yards — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Now Iowa State goes back on the road where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored by 3 points or less. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread 4 times. Texas has not played given complications with COVID — but they were ready to play last week before issues with Kansas prompted the cancellation. Head coach Tom Herman’s roster should be ready to go. The Longhorns defeated Oklahoma State by a 41-34 score in their previous game before their win over the Mountaineers to begin the month — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games by a touchdown or less against Big 12 opponents. And while Texas has only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Longhorns are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Herman’s teams do certainly seem to perform better with a chip on their shoulder as his teams have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Texas will also have revenge on their minds from a 23-21 loss in Ames as a 7-point underdog last season. 10* CFB Iowa State-Texas ABC-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (144) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (123) and the Dallas Cowboys (124). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-7) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-9 victory over Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite. Dallas (3-7) ended a four-game losing streak last week with their 31-28 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Football Team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Washington rushed for 164 yards in that game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Football Team has been the best pass defense in the league that is holding their opponents to just 195 passing YPG. Led by rookie defensive end Chase Young, Washington is tied for third in the NFL with 32 sacks. Defense travels — and the Football Team goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 gams Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. But Washington is scoring only 20.3 PPG in their games away from home. Furthermore, the Football Team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Dallas generated 376 yards of offense in their victory on Sunday — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Even after scoring 31 points last week, the Cowboys are averaging only 19.7 PPG along with 335.0 total YPG in their last three games. Dallas did give up 430 yards to the Vikings — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Cowboys have played better defense as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 335.7 total YPG. With Zack Martin healthy again on their offensive line, Dallas can reliably run the football — they ran for 180 yards last week which was a season-high. When the Cowboys run the football while not asking Andy Dalton to throw more than 35 times, they can burn time off the clock which helps their defense. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: While the Cowboys will want to run the football, Washington limited the Bengals to just 70 rushing yards last week — and the Football Team has played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (123) and the Dallas Cowboys (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-7) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-9 victory over Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite. Dallas (3-7) ended a four-game losing streak last week with their 31-28 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: One good game from the Cowboys has everyone jumping on their bandwagon — even though they were outgained by the Vikings last week by -54 net yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Even after scoring 31 points last week, the Cowboys are averaging only 19.7 PPG along with 335.0 total YPG in their last three games. Dallas also surrendered 430 yards to the Vikings last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys are last in the league by allowing 31.8 PPG — and they are surrendering 36.8 PPG at home along with 396.2 total YPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and the Cowboys have long been Fool’s Gold when favored at home as they have failed to pay off those winning tickets in 46 of their last 78 home games laying the points. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Football team has only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Despite their losing record, Washington is outgaining their opponents by +8.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They have lost all three of their close games decided by one scoring possession. They are winless on the road despite outgaining those opponents by +19.0 net YPG. The Football Team has been the best pass defense in the league that is holding their opponents to just 195 passing YPG. Led by rookie defensive end Chase Young, Washington is tied for third in the NFL with 32 sacks. The offense should turn the ball over less with the veteran Alex Smith under center. While his mobility is not the same as it was before his leg injury last year, he is finding his rhythm as a passer again. Smith has thrown for 325 and 390 yards in his previous two games before completing 17 of 25 passes for 166 yards in the winning effort last week. The Football Team is averaging 397.0 total YPG in their last three games with Smith starting under center. And while the Cowboys are allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play this season, the Football team has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 25 games against teams that allow at least 6.0 YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 trips to Dallas to play the Cowboys — and the underdog has covered the point spread in 28 of the last 41 meetings between these two teams in this rivalry. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (121) and the Detroit Lions (122). THE SITUATION: Houston (3-7) has won two of their last three games with their 27-20 upset victory at home against New England last week as a 2.5-point underdog. Detroit (4-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 20-0 loss at Carolina as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final injury reports make a push a solid Under play into a very good one on a short week. The Texan ruled out wide receivers Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb out this week their quad and toe injuries — leaving quarterback Deshaun Watson missing key weapons in a wide receiver corps that was already missing DeAndre Hopkins this season from that ill-fated trade that the now-deposed Bill O’Brien made in the offseason. Now Detroit has declared this morning that rookie running back DeAndre Swift will not play as he is not ready to return to action from the concussion he suffered two games ago. The Lions are already without wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola to injury. There just simply not much skill-position talent on the field for a game with the Total set in the 50s. Houston has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home. The Texans did surrender 435 yards in their game on Sunday with the Patriots averaging 6.8 Yards-Per-Play. Houston has then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Texans are averaging only 20.3 PPG along with 338.7 total YPG in their last three contests. They go back on the road where they are scoring 22.2 PPG while averaging just 329.8 total YPG. Houston has played a decisive 49 of their last 8 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Houston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November. Detroit has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss as a road favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns as a road favorite. And while the Lions have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Detroit surrendered 374 yards to the Panthers’ offense quarterbacked by P.J. Walker — yet they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. On offense, the Lions have scored only 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 320.0 total YPG over that span. They managed only 185 yards last week. I suspect Matthew Stafford will be a starting quarterback in the playoffs next season — but it will not be in a Lions uniform. At this point of the season, he is very banged up — and he does not have enough weapons.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions were embarrassed by being shutout last week — but trying to fix all those problems on a short week when undermanned is too much to overcome. I think their defense will play better — but the loss of Swift for this game really hurts (and cemented my call this morning). 25* NFL CBS-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (121) and the Detroit Lions (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (473) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-16 win against Seattle as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-3) has won four of their last five contests with their 46-23 victory in Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Seahawks to help them secure that victory — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after earning a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. And while Los Angeles gained 389 yards against the Seattle defense, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in the last game. The Seahawks lack much of a pass rush — and quarterback Jared Goff thrives when not facing pressure. But he will face plenty of pressure tonight against this Bucs defense that is second in the NFL with a pressure rate of 27.4% and who ranks fourth in the league in sacks. Goff is completing only 35.8% of his passes when encountering pressure which ranks 31st of the 35 qualifying quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season. His Quarterback Rating under pressure is just 36.8 which is 32nd in the league. Goff will not have his rock at left tackle in Andrew Whitworth who is out at least six weeks with a knee injury. But Los Angeles can lean on their elite defense that leads the league in points allowed (18.7 PPG), total yardage (296.4 YPG), Yards-Per-Play allowed (4.78), and opponent’s Passer Rating (81.0). This defense travels — they are holding their home hosts to just 276.2 total YPG. The Rams flexed their muscles against the outstanding Seahawks offense under QB Russell Wilson as they gained only 333 total yards with that final score cruising Under the 55 point total. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an Under in their last game. The Rams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC foes. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bucs ran the ball 37 times for 210 rushing yards against the Panthers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay will likely rely on their rushing attack against Aaron Donald and this elite Rams defense that began the week tied for second in the NFL with 31 sacks. Quarterback Tom Brady has been sacked 14 times this season — with nine of them occurring in their two games against New Orleans and their game against Chicago which accounts for their three losses. The Bucs beat up on the bad teams in the league — they are 7-0 against teams with a defense ranked outside the top-ten in yards allowed while averaging 35.8 PPG in those contests. But they are winless in their three games against teams with a top-ten total defense while averaging just 15 PPG. Tampa Bay also has an elite defense of their own that ranks tops in the NFL by the DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. The Buccaneers are third in the league by allowing only 300.3 total YPG while owning the best-run defense that holds their opponents to just 76.6 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played a scoring fest last year that Tampa Bay won by a 55-40 score as a 9-point underdog. That game was in late-September with Jameis Winston the Buccaneers’ gunslinging quarterback. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (473) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-16 win against Seattle as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-3) has won four of their last five contests with their 46-23 victory in Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game against the Seahawks — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Rams also generated 389 yards of offense in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Jared Goff is only completing 62.8% of his passes on the road as compared to his 71.4% mark when playing at home — but he is averaging 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt on the road versus his 7.5 YPA mark when at home His Quarterback Rating declines dips from a 97.2 mark at home to a 93.2 mark on the road — so perhaps the conventional wisdom that Goff has disparate home/road splits is a bit overplayed? He will not have his rock at left tackle in Andrew Whitworth who is out at least six weeks with a knee injury. But Los Angeles can lean on their elite defense that leads the league in points allowed (18.7 PPG), total yardage (296.4 YPG), Yards-Per-Play allowed (4.78), and opponent’s Passer Rating (81.0). This defense travels — they are holding their home hosts to just 276.2 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Buccaneers outgained the Panthers by +357 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 200 yards. I don’t love this situation for Tampa Bay. Head coach Bruce Arians identified that his team was “really tired” having played ten straight weeks with a bye. Arians gave the team three days off which may help — but it is certainly not an advantage. The Bucs have also been listless in prime-time games with a 1-2 record with their lone win being their listless effort to begin the month at home against the Giants where they only won by a 25-23 score. Tampa Bay beats up on the bad teams in the league — they are 7-0 against teams with a defense ranked outside the top-ten in yards allowed while averaging 35.8 PPG in those contests. But they are winless in their three games against teams with a top-ten total defense while averaging just 15 PPG. Quarterback Tom Brady has been sacked 14 times this season — with nine of them occurring in their two games against New Orleans and their game against Chicago which accounts for their three losses. Led by Aaron Donald, the Rams began the week tied for second in the NFL with 31 sacks. Brady passed for 341 yards against the Panthers — but the Bucs are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They return home to Tampa Bay where they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to 7 points. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angels will also have revenge on their minds after getting blasted at home to the Buccaneers with Jameis Winston last year by a 55-40 score despite being a 9-point favorite in that September 29th game. That result may not matter much to Brady but it does to head coach Sean McVay and this Rams team. The Bucs are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-1) has won four games in a row after their 33-31 win against Carolina two Sundays ago as a 10-point favorite. Las Vegas (6-3) has won three straight games with their 37-12 victory against Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City should build off their momentum as they are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Chiefs surrendered 435 yards to the Panthers in their winning effort last week, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 4-0 with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +89.8 net YPG. Kansas City is 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as the favorite. Of course, this situation also has head coach Andy Reid coming off a bye week — and his teams at KC and Philadelphia have gone 24-4 in his career with the bye week to prepare. His teams have covered the point spread in 19 of those 28 games. I tend to think that intangible may no longer translate into point spread value since it is so well-documented — but it doesn’t hurt! Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games after a win. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Las Vegas benefited against the Broncos with a +5 net turnover margin. The Raiders are getting outgained this season by -7.8 net YPG despite their winning record. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in all three games of their winning streak — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs’ lone loss this season was their 40-32 setback at home to the Raiders as a 10-point favorite on October 11th. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging an upset loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-1) has won four games in a row after their 33-31 win against Carolina two Sundays ago as a 10-point favorite. Las Vegas (6-3) has won three straight games with their 37-12 victory against Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders handed the Chiefs their lone loss of the season on October 11th with their 40-32 upset victory in Kansas City as a 10-point underdog. Las Vegas surprised the Chiefs’ defense by abandoning their ball-control conservative offense with several aggressive deep shots down the field from quarterback Derek Carr. The veteran Raiders’ signal-caller passed for 219 yards from deep throws which are — by far — his season-high in that category. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have his defense ready for these deep throws this time around. Look for the Jon Gruden offense to focus primarily on ball-control and winning the time of possession by running the ball and burning the clock. During their three-game winning streak, the Raiders have averaged 190.7 rushing YPG which is the second-best mark in the league over that span. They are averaging only 138 passing YPG during that span which is the second-lowest mark in the league. This commitment to the run has helped Las Vegas defense hold these last three opponents to just 14.7 PPG and 325.3 total YPG with opposing quarterback’s posting just a collective 68.1 Passer Rating. The Raiders have gained at least 160 rushing yards in three straight games — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight games. Las Vegas has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win over a divisional rival — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns against an AFC West foe. The Raiders stay at home where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. Las Vegas did have a COVID scare this week but it looks like the only defensive player they will not have available is defensive lineman Clelin Ferrell. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chiefs had also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The KC defense has continued to improve under Spagnuolo as they are allowing only 20.3 PPG this season. In their four road games, the Chiefs are holding their home hosts to just 18.3 PPG along with 331.0 total YPG. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a favorite. The Chiefs have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 22 of their last 31 meetings Under the Total. Expect this rematch to be a lower-scoring game than the first meeting that saw 72 combined points scored. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) has lost two straight games after their 37-12 loss at Las Vegas last Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog. Miami (6-3) has won five straight games after their 29-21 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: We have taken Denver the last two weeks to only get burned by the inconsistent play of Drew Lock — so I endorse this after much trepidation. But simply, it will be the regret that I never forget if we do not fade the Dolphins in this spot — more on that below. On the Broncos side of the ledger, they should play better after Lock’s four turnovers helped produce a -5 net turnover margin in that loss to the Raiders. Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 16 home games after a loss by double-digits to an AFC West foe, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of these games. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points. Miami is SO due for a visit from the Regression Gods after winning and covering the point spread in five straight games. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Miami is getting it done from smoke and mirrors and special teams and defensive touchdowns. They had been outgained in their previous two games before outgaining the Chargers by 7 yards after their 280-yard output last week. The Tua Tagovailoa offense is averaging just 245.7 total YPG which would get someone like Kirk Cousins lambasted if not complemented by all the mistakes the opposition has been making. The Dolphins are being outgained by -53.9 net YPG this season — and in their three games, since Tagovailoa took over, they have been outgained by -149.6 net YPG. That is not a typo.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49.5 point range. Denver is injured — and I am not sure if it is good or bad that Lock has been upgraded to probable with his rib injury. Trust the process with this one — especially with the Dolphins’ odds moving to them laying more than a field goal on the road. I am not going to be surprised if the Broncos pull the upset — but take the points for insurance. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Denver Broncos (476) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) looks to bounce back from their 23-17 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite last week for Sunday Night Football. Tennessee (6-3) also looks to rebound from a 34-17 loss at Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football last week where they were a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a revenge situation for Baltimore, who got clocked by the Titans in the AFC Divisional round last year at home by a 28-12 score despite being a 10-point favorite. Derrick Henry ran right over the Ravens’ defense with 195 rushing yards in that game. After having the interior of their run defense exposed like that, Baltimore signed defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams to shore up that part of their defense. Problem solved, right? Unfortunately, injuries will keep both of those players out for this game. So, fade the Ravens then, right? Well, not so fast. Sure, I wish those players were available — but it was not just Henry that did in Baltimore in that playoff game. QB Lamar Jackson committed three turnovers in that game, while the Ravens failed to convert on several 4th down opportunities that played a significant role in shifting the momentum of that game. If Lamar plays better — and the offense executes at a higher level — then Baltimore should take the Titans out of the position where they can pound the rock to Henry. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by +8.8 PPG due to their strong defense that is holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with 323.0 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense is even stingier at home where they limit their guests to only 17.8 PPG along with just 312.3 YPG. Additionally, the Ravens have held their last three opponents to 289.3 total YPG. They outgained the Patriots last week by +49 net yards but they lost the turnover battle and weather played a major role in that game. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And while the Titans surrendered 293 passing yards to the Colts, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This Tennessee has regressed from that playoff game last year — they are allowing 398.1 total YPG this season. They are also dealing with a host of injuries themselves with potentially six starters out including defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and wide receiver Adam Humphries. Despite their 6-3 record, the Titans are being outgained by -24.8 net YPG this season. Over their last three games, they are being outscored by a touchdown while managing only 321.0 YPG which has translated into just 20.3 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. One final thing about this Titans team that should always be considered: they are simply a hot mess on special teams, especially with their punter and placekicker. A +10 net turnover margin is the reason why this team has overcome poor special teams play and losing the yardage battle to their opponents. But those turnover Gods are a fickle beast.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC rivals — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against AFC foes. I don’t love the injury situation for Baltimore — but it is not great with Tennessee either. The bottom line is that I will regret not investing in this situation at a 25* level. Let’s attack! 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (401) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (402). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (5-1) takes the field again after their 20-18 win at Kansas State two weeks ago as a 14-point favorite. Oklahoma (5-2) has won four games in a row with their 62-9 victory against Kansas two weeks ago as a 38.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: I held off on this play until getting the final update on the Oklahoma State injury situation. The reports are that this team is back to 100% health with the extra week off to prepare for this game. Running back Chuba Hubbard, wide receiver Tylan Wallace, and three starters on the offensive line have been either out or slowed with injuries — so this is a significant development. The Cowboys managed only 256 yards against the Wildcats in their last game which was the lowest yardage output for them since 2014 — but these injuries played a role in that output. Oklahoma State should be racing to go in this game —and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after their bye week. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Oklahoma State has a solid defense even above typical Big 12 standards as they are holding their opponents to just 17.8 PPG along with only 311.7 total YPG. They are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a road dog. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Sooners have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Oklahoma flexed their muscles on defense by limiting the Jayhawks to just 246 yards. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they are also 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games as an underdog. The road team has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams — expect a close game. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-Oklahoma ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (401) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (344) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (343). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (5-2) has won three straight games after their 38-13 win over Temple last week as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (7-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 55-13 win over East Carolina as a 27.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. After losing to Tulsa and Memphis, the Knights have rattled off three-straight wins while scoring 44.3 PPG in those games. This team is an offensive juggernaut under head coach Josh Heupel. They lead the nation by averaging a whopping 619.1 total YPG in their up-tempo attack. Sophomore quarterback Dillon Gabriel has found a nice rhythm as he has completed 57 of 95 passes for 1018 yards with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions. For the season, the lefty is completing 63.3% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just two interceptions while averaging 393.6 passing YPG which leads the nation. Their +129 net yardage edge over the Owls was the slimmest margin in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after outgaining their last three opponents by at least +125 net yards. They have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points. Additionally, the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. The Bearcats benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Pirates — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Cincinnati has college football playoff aspirations on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Bearcats have feasted on a soft schedule — their opponents have a combined 15-13 record with 11 of those victories coming from SMU and Memphis. The Bearcats are allowing only 12.4 PPG this season but they have yet to play an opponent who pushes the pace like the Knights. This Cincy may be overrated given their easy schedule. Tulsa ranks just ahead of them in Defensive Expected Points Allowed — and Central Florida put up 455 yards against the Golden Hurricane defense.

FINAL TAKE: UCF should put up plenty of points against the Bearcats who are not as comfortable playing in shootouts. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games away from home with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Bearcats upset the Knights last season by a 27-24 score at home as a 3.5-point underdog on October 4th — so this is a prime opportunity for UCF to exact some revenge. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Central Florida Knights (344) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UTSA Roadrunners (385) and the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (386). THE SITUATION: UTSA (5-4) has now two of their last three games with their 52-21 win over UTEP as a 5.5-point favorite last week. Southern Mississippi (2-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 10-7 loss at Western Kentucky last week as an 8-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Roadrunners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home against a conference rival. UTSA has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Roadrunners generated 600 yards of offense to blowout the Miners. But UTSA has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, UTEP has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Roadrunners are scoring 27.0 PPG while averaging 402.8 total YPG this season but those numbers drop to just 21.8 PPG and 342.0 YPG in their four games on the road. UTSA did hold the Miners to just 246 total yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. UTSA has held their last three opponents to just 23.7 PPG and 275.0 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the number in the 49.5 to 56 range. They have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Southern Miss has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Golden Eagles have played a decisive 41 of their last 60 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a loss by a field goal or less. The Southern Miss offensive attack took a hit when senior quarterback Jack Abraham opted-out for the rest of the season and he has since entered the transfer portal. Since he left the team, the Golden Eagles are averaging just 12.3 PPG along with 278.3 total YPG — and 24 of their 37 combined points were against Northern Alabama. Trey Lowe completed only 6 of 14 passes for 67 yards under center last week while leading an offense that gained only 221 yards against the Hilltoppers last week. Southern Miss has played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Golden Eagles have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Miss has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in conference play while the Under is 18-8-1 in UTSA’s last 27 games against Conference USA rivals. 20* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the UTSA Roadrunners (385) and the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (358) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (357). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (3-0) enters this showdown of undefeated teams coming off a 49-27 victory against Rutgers as a 37.5-point favorite. Indiana (4-0) comes off a 24-0 win at Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State’s victory over the Scarlet Knights was not as close as the final score indicated with Rutgers scoring from a 58-yard punt return and then a late garbage touchdown in the second half. The Buckeyes went into the locker room at halftime with a 35-3 lead. Ohio State should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Buckeyes have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 40 points. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Ohio State has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when favored. Indiana has been a nice story — but they are just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a shutout victory. The Hoosiers limited the Spartans to just 191 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Now Indiana goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games when getting 14.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State crushed Indiana by a 51-10 score last season in September. There remains a significant talent differential between these two teams. And the Buckeyes usually get riled up when facing good competition as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Indiana-Ohio State Fox-TV Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (358) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (365) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (366). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (6-2) has won three games in a row with their 40-38 win against Texas State last week as a 12.5-point favorite. Army (6-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday as a 3-point underdog with their 38-12 loss at Tulane.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 7 points or less against a conference opponent. Georgia Southern has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Eagles did get their ground game rolling last week as they generated 386 yards on the ground while outgaining the Bobcats by +356 net rushing yards which is a great sign for them in this game. Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 200 yards. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Army endured a -3 net turnover margin in their loss last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. The Black Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after winning two of their last three games. Army may be  a paper tiger — three of their victories have come against FCS opponents with their other three wins being against teams ranked 108th, 122nd, and 123rd in the ESPN Football Power Index (for what those rankings are worth). The Black Knights’ losses have been against Cincinnati and the Green Wave last week — and they have only scored 22 combined points in those two games. Army may struggle to get their triple option rushing attack going against this Appalachian State defense that leads the Sun Belt Conference by holding opposing rushers to just 3.48 Yards-Per-Carry. This is expected to be a lower-scoring game with the total dropping below 42. But the Black Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games with the over/under set at 42 or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing at home with the total no higher than 42.

FINAL TAKE: Army has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Don’t be surprised if Georgia Southern pulls the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Georgia Southern Eagles (365) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.