At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Los Angeles Chargers (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-0) won their third straight game with their 31-28 win in overtime against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-1) comes off a 30-24 upset win at Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This game should be a shootout. The Raiders have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Overs after a point spread loss. Las Vegas has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Derek Carr completed 26 of 43 passes for 386 yards in the victory — and the Raiders have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Carr is averaging over 400 passing YPG this season — and he has topped at least 350 passing yards in five straight games going back to last year. Las Vegas has played 7 straight Overs after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. Carr is playing at a very high level — he is a smart player who has mastered Jon Gruden’s offense in their fourth year together. Now the Raiders go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total. Furthermore, the Over is 8-2-1 in Las Vegas’ last 11 games as an underdog — and the Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Chargers gained 352 yards against the Chiefs last week in their win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The quarterback battle between Carr and Justin Herbert should be dynamic — a race to reach (at least) 30 points. The Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against AFC West rivals — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC West opponents. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Los Angeles Chargers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (278) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277). THE SITUATION: New England (1-2) looks to rebound from their 28-13 upset loss at home to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite last week. Tampa Bay (2-1) lost their first game since winning the Super Bowl last season in a 34-24 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point road favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: If the choice is between Tom Brady and Mac Jones, then the answer is easy. If the choice is between Brady and Bill Belichick, the answer gets tougher. But if the choice is between Brady or Belichick at home getting points, then I will take Belichick coaching as a home dog. New England has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games getting the points — including nine of these last eleven situations. The Patriots are also 42-18-2 ATS in their last 62 games in October under Belichick. He will have his team ready to play after their disappointing effort at home against the Saints last week. New England has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points at home. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Don’t underestimate the quality of this Patriots defense as they are allowing only 17.0 PPG and 282.3 total Yards-Per-Game. It will be fascinating to observe what Belichick has in store in defending against his former quarterback. Jones has been impressive as a rookie quarterback — he completed 30 of 51 passes for 270 yards while rushing for another 28 yards in a losing effort to the Saints. His three interceptions hurt — but the Patriots have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers are dealing with some injuries on defense. Linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul is out with a shoulder injury and the Bucs are dealing with other injuries at cornerback including Sean Murphy-Bunting who is IR. Tampa Bay is allowing 29.3 PPG and 402.2 YPG — and they have allowed at least 25 points in all three of their games this season. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight games. The Rams averaged 6.56 Yards-Per-Play against this defense last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. Tampa Bay is giving up 338 passing YPG with all three of their opponents passing for at least 293 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in a three-game stretch.

FINAL TAKE: Brady has failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight appearances on Prime-Time television. That probably speaks to a “Brady tax” that bettors must swallow if wanting to back the G.O.A.T. with their bet. Either way, the value is with the Patriots tonight. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (278) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277) and the New England Patriots (278). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (2-1) lost their first game since winning the Super Bowl last season in a 34-24 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point road favorite last Sunday. New England (1-2) looks to rebound from their 28-13 upset loss at home to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T. but I do expect him to be emotional in his first return to Gilette Stadium since leaving the Patriots organization. Remember, he has a history of slow starts in the Super Bowl. We will also witness the fascinating matchup of him going up against a Bill Belichick defense. Brady is on record indicating that the Miami Dolphins’ defenses tend to give him the most trouble despite deploying a basic scheme against him. I am not smarter than Belichick but I would guess he will focus on taking away either wide receiver Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. Rob Gronkowski did not even make the trip to Foxboro given his broken ribs — so Brady’s safety valve is gone. Belichick might also dare the Buccaneers to run the football and take the ball out of Brady’s hands. Tampa Bay is not running the ball well this season — they are averaging just 56 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Buccaneers have not rushed for more than 82 yards in a game this season — and head coach Bruce Arians’ teams have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a three-game stretch where they did not rush for at least 100 yards even once. The Patriots are playing great defense this season — they are allowing only 17.0 PPG and 282.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. New England has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the Patriots have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. While almost all the attention this week has been on Brady v. Belichick, an underplayed narrative is how rookie Mac Jones will handle the pressure of this moment as the literal heir apparent to Brady. I suspect he will be nervous. As it is, New England is scoring only 18.0 PPG and averaging 317.7 total YPG. They are 27th in the NFL by averaging just 4.8 Yards-Per-Play. To compound matters, Jones will be without running back James White after a season-ending injury — and he creates a void since he is a reliable safety valve catching the ball out of the backfield. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total. They have played 5 straight Unders as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games against teams from the NFC, New England has played 7 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay’s defense has underachieved this season — they are allowing 29.3 PPG this season. The talent on that side of the ball is still elite — and they are holding opposing rushers to just 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry after leading the NFL in run defense last season. They are going to force Jones to beat them with his arm. The Patriots have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams who allow at least 27 PPG. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (277) and the New England Patriots (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (256) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (255). THE SITUATION: New York (0-3) remained winless on the season after their embarrassing 26-0 shutout loss at Denver last Sunday as a 10.5-point underdog. Tennessee (2-1) comes off a 25-16 win against Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: NFL teams coming off shutouts tend to respond with a strong effort the next week. This was the case for our 25* play on Miami last week who got shutout 35-0 the week before against Buffalo. For what it is worth, NFL teams have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games after getting shut out in their previous game. The Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 21 points on the road in their previous game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. They have played a tough schedule against Carolina, New England, and the Broncos who all feature tough defenses. That is not the case this afternoon against the Titans who are allowing 28.0 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee will be without their starting wide receivers with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones out with injuries. This leaves them one-dimensional on offense. This is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when favored — and they are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets are desperate for a win — and they are playing hard for head coach Robert Saleh. The former San Francisco defensive coordinator has his team playing solid defense — they are holding their opponents to 328.3 total YPG. With the Titans missing their two wide receivers, the Titans just need to escape with a win. Take the points! 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the New York Jets (256) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (251) and the Atlanta Falcons (252). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-2) looks to rebound from their flat 43-21 loss at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog. Atlanta (1-2) won their first game of the season on Sunday with their 17-14 upset win at New York against the Giants as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Football Team gave up a whopping 481 yards to the Bills last week in what has been a surprising turn of events for this team’s defense. After finishing second in the league last year by holding opponents to 304.6 total YPG, the defense this season in second-to-last by allowing 432.0 total YPG. But in Ron Rivera I trust — and I expect him along with defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio to right the ship. There is too much talent on this unit — especially on the defensive line with four former first-round draft picks. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed the Bills to gain 481 yards against them, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Football Team has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in October. They have also played 4 straight Unders on the road when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They now face a Falcons team that is one-dimensional relying too much on Matt Ryan’s arm. The Mike Davis-led rushing attack is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Falcons are scoring only 16.0 PPG and generating just 301.3 total YPG. Rookie head coach Arthur Smith does seem to want to run the football to protect his suspect defense — although defensive coordinator Dean Pees is doing about as good a job as possible with that unit. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Falcons had only 296 yards in their win last week. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as a dog. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, they have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Washington held their final seven opponents last season to 20 or fewer points. With Taylor Heinicke under center, Rivera does not want to have this game get into a shootout with Ryan. Expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (251) and the Atlanta Falcons (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (214) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (213). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (1-3) looks to rebound from their 42-39 loss at Charlotte as a 2.5-point underdog last Friday. Marshall (2-2) comes off a 31-30 loss at Appalachian State as a 7-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss to a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss to a conference opponent by seven points or less. After winning their opening game at home at Monmouth, the Blue Raiders have lost three in a row — all on the road — to Virginia Tech, UTSA, and the 49ers last week. Tough stretch. Veteran head coach Rick Stockstill will tell his team to take advantage of playing back at home at Floyd Stadium since they head back on another three-game road swing. This is the middle of a brutal stretch where six of their seven games are away from home. Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in October under Stockstill, coaching the team in his sixteenth season. Quarterback Bailey Hockman left the team after the loss at UTSA to tend his new family — but the Blue Raiders are in fine hands under Chase Cunningham. The redshirt junior completed 28 of 40 passes for 379 yards and five touchdowns without an interception last week. Middle Tennessee needs to shore up their defense after allowing 559 yards including 330 yards in the air. The Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. The Thundering Herd got outgained by -169 net yards after surrendering 566 yards to the Mountaineers last week. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outgained by at least 125 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Thundering Herd has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Former Alabama running backs coach Charles Huff is in his first season as the Marshall head coach — but his football team has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when favored including four of these last five situations. Stockstill has 19 starters back from the team that lost at Marshall last November 14th by a 42-14 score. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (214) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (204) minus the point(s) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (203). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 28-20 loss to Louisiana as a 14.5-point underdog last Saturday. Arkansas State (1-3) has also lost their last three games after their 41-34 loss at Tulsa as a 14.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia Southern won the yardage battle, 453 to 378, against a Ragin’ Cajuns team that fancies themselves as the best Group of Five football team in the nation this season (despite an opening loss at Texas). But after blowout losses on the road at FAU and Arkansas before that loss, the Eagles administration decided to relieve head coach Chad Lunsford of his duties. Georgia Southern has not been satisfied with its football program since Willie Fritz left for Tulane in 2016. They brought in Colorado State defensive coordinator Tyson Summers but he was not a good fit for the program. Lunsford took over midway through Summers’ second season after a disastrous 0-6 start. The longtime assistant did a fine job of re-establishing the culture that Fritz had established — but he was probably not the coach to keep this program at the level it had been under Fritz. Georgia Southern will likely take a long time in conducting a national search to correct the mistake they made in tapping Summers over five years ago. Cornerbacks coach Kevin Whitley takes over as the interim head coach in the meantime. Lunsford was liked by the players — but his firing also called out the 16 starters returning from last year’s 8-5 team. Look for this team to rally around each other — and Whitley — in this important game for the program. As it is, the Eagles have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games when playing with six days or less of rest. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Arkansas State covered the two-touchdown spread against the Golden Hurricane last week benefitting from a 63-yard punt return for a touchdown and a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. But the Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. Arkansas State surrendered a whopping 663 yards of offense to Tulsa while getting outgained by 304 net yards. The Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Arkansas State surrendered 8.96 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing their last opponent to generate at least 7.25 YPP. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games coming off a road game where both teams scored at least 31 points. Arkansas State opened their season by defeating Central Arkansas, an FCS opponent. After losing by just five points to Memphis, they got housed on the road at Washington two weeks ago by a 52-3 score against a previously winless Huskies team.

FINAL TAKE: This is a tough situational spot for the Red Wolves with this being their third straight game away from home and out-of-state. And Whitley will be able to squeeze out some extra motivation from his team by reminding them of their 38-33 loss at Arkansas State two years ago as a 1-point underdog in their last meeting on November 23rd of 2019. 20* CFB Saturday Discounted Deal with the Georgia Southern Eagles (204) minus the point(s) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (165) and the Stanford Cardinal (166). THE SITUATION: Oregon (4-0) has won their first four games of the season with their 41-19 win against Arizona as a 29.5-point favorite last Saturday. Stanford (2-2) looks to bounce back from heir 35-24 loss at home to UCLA as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight-road games Over the Total after a win at home. Oregon has also played 4 straight Overs after a blowout win by 20 or more points. The Ducks’ offense is predicated on running the football under head coach and former Alabama offensive line coach Mario Cristobal. Oregon averages 5.2 rushing Yards-Per-Carry to lead them to generate 204 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they will be running against a porous Cardinal run defense that is allowing their opponents to average 5.2 YPC. The Ducks are scoring 38.8 PPG — and they have scored at least 31 points in all four of their games. Oregon’s defense would have surrendered more points if not for the Wildcats’ five turnovers last week — Arizona gouged them for 435 total yards. As it is, the Ducks have played 6 straight games Over the Total after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. Fresno State and Ohio State scored 24 and 28 points respectively — so Stanford scoring in the mid-20s as a floor is a reasonable expectation. Oregon has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when the favorite. Stanford has played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Cardinal has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Stanford went into the locker room at halftime trailing by a 21-7 score — but Tanner McKee rallied the team in the third quarter with two unanswered touchdowns to tie the game. The sophomore quarterback completed 19 of 32 passes for 293 yards and three touchdown passes. He also added 42 yards on the ground. Since McKee took over the starting job after the Cardinal’s 24-7 opening loss at Kansas State, Stanford is scoring 35.7 PPG and averaging 385.7 total YPG — and the Cardinal scored 42 and 41 points on the road against both USC and Vanderbilt. McKee is completing 68% of his passes without an interception — and head coach David Shaw appears very comfortable with the offense revolving around his arm, especially with some injuries at running back. While the final score against the Bruins finished just under the 60.5 point total, Stanford has played 7 straight Overs after playing an Under in their last game. The Cardinal defense has not been great — they are allowing 27.5 PPG and 401.3 total YPG. Stanford stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total. The Cardinal has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon scored five touchdowns last season in their 35-14 victory at Eugene with the Total closing around 40. These two teams have played 11 of their last 16 meetings Over the Total. The Ducks are 8-point road favorites — but Stanford should be a feisty dog that will push them to score more points. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (165) and the Stanford Cardinal (166). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season with a 31-19 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (2-1) comes off a 24-10 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Jacksonville is scoring only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and generating just 315.0 total Yards-Per-Game so far this season. The defense has been the bigger concern as they are surrendering 30.3 PPG — but their nine turnovers have played a large role in that number. The Cardinals took the lead near the end of the third quarter last week with a 29-yard interception return for a touchdown. Holding Kyler Murray and the explosive Arizona offense to just 24 offensive points is encouraging. Jacksonville did give up 316 passing yards last week — but they have played 5 straight Unders after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while their last two opponents have averaged 6.2 and 6.3 Yards-Per-Play, the Jaguars have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.0 YPP. Jacksonville goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Jaguars have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. The Bengals gained only 268 yards in their upset win on Sunday. They ran only 42 plays while the Steelers took 77 snaps under center — but they only gave up 342 yards to a Pittsburgh offense that generated only 4.4 YPP. Cincy converted only three of nine of their third-down opportunities — a disturbing continuation from last season when they were 30th in the NFL by converting 36.2% of their third-down opportunities. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Bengals' last 5 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. I like quarterback Joe Burrow — and would like him even more if played behind an even average offensive line. The Bengals allowed 48 sacks last season — and they have surrendered 10 sacks so far this season despite the Steelers failing to sack Burrow even once. Cincinnati got the memo to run the ball more after Burrow’s season-ending injury last year just to keep Burrow out of harm’s way. The Bengals are running the ball 52% of the time. But that also means that they are scoring only 22.7 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 291.0 total YPG. Running the ball more is helping the Cincinnati defense since it is helping to keep them rested. The Bengals are allowing just 18.0 PPG along with 312.0 total YPG. They did give up 297 passing yards last week — but they have then played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Bengals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season with a 31-19 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (2-1) comes off a 24-10 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Successful long-term gambling in football requires the willingness to back bad teams — the ones that the betting public does not want to touch. Two bad teams are playing tonight — so taking the one getting a touchdown in points offers value. This is just the fourth time in head coach Zac Taylor’s three-year year tenure as the head coach of the Bengals — and this is the first time that Cincinnati is laying more than a field goal. The Bengals lost the two games they were favored in Taylor’s rookie season. Their lone win and point spread cover as a favorite under Taylor was their 33-25 win against the Jaguars last October as a 1-point favorite. With Urban Meyer now the head coach and Trevor Lawrence under center, this is a different Jacksonville team. Frankly, the Bengals are primed for a letdown after their triumph against their heated AFC North rival in the Steelers. Did Cincinnati win that game — or did Pittsburgh lose it? The Bengals gained only 268 yards. They ran only 42 plays while the Steelers took 77 snaps under center. Cincy converted only three of nine of their third-down opportunities — a disturbing continuation from last season when they were 30th in the NFL by converting 36.2% of their third-down opportunities. But the Bengals pulled off their second upset victory of the season after beating Minnesota in Week One as an underdog. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. I like quarterback Joe Burrow — and would like him even more if played behind an even average offensive line. The Bengals allowed 48 sacks last season — and they have surrendered 10 sacks so far this season despite the Steelers failing to sack Burrow even once. Cincinnati got the memo to run the ball more after Burrow’s season-ending injury last year just to keep Burrow out of harm’s way. The Bengals are running the ball 52% of the time. But that also means that they are scoring only 22.7 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 291.0 total YPG. I am not sold on Taylor as a head coach, yet another beneficiary of once being in the same room as Sean McVay. With offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, he has assembled a support staff that will not threaten his authority. The Bengals are dealing with injuries in their secondary as well. Two starters are likely out with cornerback Chidobe Awuzie doubtful with a groin and free safety Jessie Bates out with a neck injury. Backup safety Ricardo Allen, a free agent signing from Atlanta in the offseason, is on IR. Cincinnati gave up 297 passing yards last week (after surrendering 336 passing yards to the Vikings in Week One) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Jacksonville held a 19-10 lead against an undefeated Arizona team midway through the third quarter. A 29-yard interception returned for a touchdown near the end of the third quarter gave the Cardinals the lead for good. Turnovers are killing the Jaguars — their nine giveaways are most in the NFL. Lawrence has thrown seven interceptions already this season after not having a problem with picks in his college career at Clemson. Jacksonville had five net close losses within one scoring possession last season. They lost at home to Denver the previous week by a 23-13 score — but the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two in a row by double-digits at home. Jacksonville did rush for 159 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Running the football will protect Lawrence from trying to do too much — and Chicago was able to rush for 123 yards against the Bengals in their only loss so far this season. Cincinnati was 29th in the NFL last year by allowing 148.0 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Meyer is not used to losing — and this is one of the most getable games on the Jacksonville schedule. With veteran offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and former Baltimore defensive backs coach Joe Cullen as the defensive coordinator, Meyer has a veteran staff with experience operating on a short week. This should be a close game against a Bengals team feeling very good about themselves. And Burrow is without one of his important weapons in wide receiver Tee Higgins who is out with a shoulder injury. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (498) and the Dallas Cowboys (497). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to rebound from their 17-11 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Don’t blame the Philly defense last week as they held the 49ers to just 306 yards and a mere 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Graham’s defense is allowing only 11.5 Points-Per-Game and 283.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles rushed for 151 yards in that game after rushing for 173 rushing yards in their opening win at Atlanta. Philadelphia has played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. The Eagles are going to run the football tonight — they are taking full advantage of Jalen Hurts’ skills as a rusher. But while Philly is averaging 381.0 total Yards-Per-Game, they are struggling to finish drives as they are scoring just 21.5 Points-Per-Game. The Eagles have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing on Monday Night Football. Dallas’ defense bent last week — but they did not break. They limited the Chargers to just 17 points despite Justin Herbert passing for 313 yards. Tom Brady passed for 379 yards in their opening game against Tampa Bay — but the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to pass for at least 300 yards. And while Dallas is allowing 419.5 total YPG this season, they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 YPG over a two-game stretch. The Cowboys have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow NFC East opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (498) and the Dallas Cowboys (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (498) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (497). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to rebound from their 17-11 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas is highly valued by the betting public right now after following up their nationally-televised 2-point loss at Tampa Bay to open the season with an upset win on the road against Justin Herbert’s Chargers. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 69 home games when laying the points. Even if you like the potential of this Cowboys’ team, they have already been hit hard by injuries. Starting defensive linemen DeMarcus Lawrence and Neville Gallimore are both on IR. So is cornerback Kelvin Joseph, their second-round draft pick from Kentucky. Three more depth defensive linemen are out with injuries. Starting strong safety Donovan Wilson is doubtful with a groin injury. A COVID outbreak will keep linebacker Keanu Allen and defensive end Bradley Anae out tonight. On offense, right tackle La’el Collins is suspended for missing drug tests and backup tackle Ty Nsekhe is out with an illness. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is on IR and fellow starting wide receiver Amari Cooper is dealing with a ribs injury (but it looks like he will play). This is just a bunch of attrition for an organization that has not met point spread expectations in situations like this. Dallas did gain 419 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Cowboys allowed 408 yards to the Chargers — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Dallas defense gave up 431 yards to the Buccaneers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. Philadelphia outgained the 49ers last week by a 328-306 margin despite only having the ball for 25:06 minutes of the game. They averaged 6.2 Yards-Per-Play while holding the Niners to just 4.0 YPP. They crushed Atlanta on the road in their opening game by a 32-6 score. This appears to be a well-coached team. Rookie head coach Nick Sirianni may not be ready for prime-time when it comes to televised press conferences, but his game plans have been sound — and the players seem to have completely bought in. Coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Graham have been effective. Graham’s defense is allowing only 11.5 Points-Per-Game and 283.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Steichen’s offense is generating 381.0 total YPG. They have schemed well for quarterback Jalen Hurts who has been effective with his passing and his rushing. The Eagles hit rock bottom last season but the impact of injuries should not be underestimated. Philadelphia was last in the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury on offense with the wide receiver and offensive line unites decimated. While right guard Brandon Brooks went on IR this week, the line is in much better shape now as is the wide receiver room which was bolstered with the drafting of DeVonta Smith in the first round. Sirianni inherited a pretty good roster. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games played on Monday Night Football. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 appearances on Monday Night Football. And in the Cowboys’ last 6 games against NFC East rivals, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (498) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (495) and the San Francisco 49ers (496). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (1-1) comes off a 35-17 win at home against Detroit as an 11.5-point favorite for Monday Night Football. San Francisco (2-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-11 victory at Philadelphia last Sunday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers found their offensive rhythm in the second half on Monday with three offensive touchdowns. Green Bay has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Now the Packers go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs as an underdog. Green Bay has also played a decisive 36 of their last 53 games Over the Total in September. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread win. The 49ers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 14 or fewer points. Now after playing their first two games on the road, they return home for the first time this season — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Packers have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (495) and the San Francisco 49ers (496). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (496) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (495). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-11 victory at Philadelphia last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (1-1) comes off a 35-17 win at home against Detroit as an 11.5-point favorite for Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers are dealing with injuries which is situation normal for head coach Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco had 161.6 adjusted games lost to injury last season — and that is before looking at lost time because of COVID — which was the most games lost since the Chicago Bears in 2017. Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have done a great job in establishing depth and developing a next-man up mentality. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when favored under Shanahan’s leadership. While San Francisco led the NFL with 32 players in Injured Reserve last season, it was the loss of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo that was the biggest loss. Much was made of the Niners selected quarterbacks Trey Lance as the third pick in the NFL, that pick said more about Garoppolo’s propensity to get injured than it did about his talent. Garoppolo led this team to a Super Bowl — and he is healthy right now. Lance offers the team a threat with his legs under center. After not playing much last week, don’t be surprised if Shanahan rope-a-doped the Packers’ coaching staff and will have some special Lance packages for this showdown. The 49ers have been hit hard with injuries at running back — but this is the position on the field most resilient to injuries. Ohio State rookie Trey Sermon oozes with talent after being picked in the third round — and Shanahan has claimed he has looked great in practice this week. The running game is predicated on the offensive line — and this unit is heathy and clicking for the Niners. San Francisco has allowed only one sack so far this season. The 49ers will be playing with revenge from their 34-17 loss at home to Green Bay last year — but that game was played on November 5th when the team was already decimated with injuries. San Francisco not only swept the Packers in their two meetings at Levi’s Stadium in the 2019-20 season, they overwhelmed them by a 74-28 scoring edge. The 49ers controlled the line of scrimmage in both games — and they rushed for 285 yards on 42 carries in the NFC Championship Game that year. Green Bay is soft — they struggle against physical teams. Their best chance of fighting back has been their good offensive line — but injuries and free agent defections leaves them without their three best lineman from the 2019-20 team that got embarrassed. ,b>All-Pro center Corey Linsley was allowed to sign with the Chargers. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is still recovering from the torn ACL he suffered on December 31st. And now their emerging stud at left guard (playing left tackle for Bakhtiari), Elgton Jenkins, is out with an ankle which leaves them relying on Yosh Nijman on the left side. I think the Aaron Rodgers drama is a distraction that is eroding the chemistry and morale of this team — but do not underestimate the simple loss of talent on the offensive line for this team. Here comes Nick Bosa and three other former first round picks on the offensive line. In Rodgers’ last four games against the Niners since October 2018, he has been sacked 12 times while losing four fumbles. The Packers were losing at halftime against Detroit on Monday before the Lions’ failed fourth down within field goal range changed the momentum of that game. Green Bay’s defense has surrendered 17 points in the first half in each of their first two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after giving up 17 or more first half points in two straight contests. The Packers’ defense has registered only one sack this season. Cornerback Kenny King has become a liability after getting burned at the end of the first half against Tampa Bay in last year’s NFC Championship Game. Green Bay is also missing their second-best defensive player (to cornerback Jaire Alexander) in linebacker Za’Darius Smith who is on IR with a back injury. Former Michigan first-round draft pick Rashan Gary has disappointed in his development as a pass rusher. Now Green Bay goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The weight of losing two straight NFC Conference Championship Games seems to be too much for the Packers. General manager Brian Gutenkunst poured gasoline on this situation by wasting a precious first round draft pick (and the traded draft picks) for quarterback Jordan Love. Head coach Matt LaFleur demonstrated a lack of confidence in Rodgers by electing to kick a field goal down 8 points late in the NFC Championship Game against Tampa Bay despite being inside the 10-yard line. And now after the team claimed to “not ready to play” in San Francisco in the 2020 NFC Championship Game, this group is going to rally with all this going on — on a short week? I don’t think so. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the  San Francisco 49ers (496) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (495). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (492) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (491). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-0) won their second-straight game to start the season with their 27-24 win at Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite last week. Tampa Bay (2-0) comes off a 48-25 win against Atlanta as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): After Los Angeles demonstrated their potential with Matthew Stafford under center in the first week of the season, they played poorly last week but did enough to beat the Colts. Indianapolis recovered a fumble in the end zone to score a touchdown to keep the game close. The Rams have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles did generate 371 yards against the Colts defense — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home to SoFi Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. The Los Angeles Rams defense led the NFL by holding their opponents to just 18.5 PPG and 281.9 total YPG — and they led the league by holding their opponent’s to just 4.6 Yards-Per-Play. They are allowing 19.0 PPG so far this season. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by two or more touchdowns. I do worry about the Super Bowl hangover effect for this team. This is a team that already had the most game-to-game variance using the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders. They were up by a 27-24 score against the winless Falcons early in the fourth quarter. They needed Tom Brady heroics with less than two minutes left in the game to rally to defeat the Cowboys at home. Now the Buccaneers play their first game of the season on the road — and with the looming media circus drama upcoming the following week when the team travels to New England in Brady’s first game back in Foxboro against the Patriots. Tampa Bay lost only 30.6 adjusted games to injury last season — the lowest number in the league. But they will be without pass rush special Jason Pierre-Paul to injury and wide receiver Antonio Brown to the COVID list for this showdown.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record under McVay. This is a statement game for McVay’s team — but it is just another game to the Super Bowl champions. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-LA Rams’ Fox-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (492) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (491). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (487) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (488). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-1) looks to pick themselves off the mat after a 35-0 loss at home to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (2-0) pulled off their second-straight upset victory in their 26-17 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a situation too good to pass up despite some injury and offensive line concerns. I am trusting the process — and the wisdom of the point spread — in this one. The Dolphins were completely flat last week in their divisional loss to the Bills. They may have been suffering the hangover of returning from New England where they just beat the Patriots. The early injury to Tua Tagovailoa did not help matters. But Miami ran into a buzzsaw that was an angry Bills team coming off an upset loss to Pittsburgh. There is nothing like an NFL team getting shut out that will generate attentive minds in practice the next week. In Brian Flores, I Trust in righting the Dolphins’ ship this week. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 11 games after surrendering at least 30 points, Miami has covered the point spread 10 times. The Dolphins have a good defense that was tied for fifth in the league by allowing 21.1 PPG last season. Miami led the NFL in third-down defense, three-and-outs, and yards allowed per drive, and takeaways last season. They were also fourth in the league in Red Zone points allowed. They held the Bills to just 314 yards last week despite the 35 points. After gaining only 214 total yards, the Dolphins need to reconfigure their offense. Flores has overseen the reshuffling of their offensive line. Getting wide receiver Will Fuller into the mix after the former Houston Texan missed the opening two games help — he is a speedster who had eight touchdowns in eleven games last year. Fuller alongside rookie Jaylen Waddle could be a game-changer for this offense. Jacoby Brissett completed only 24 of 40 passes for 169 yards in relief last week — but the veteran is one of the better backups in the league with 32 career starts. He has tossed 31 career touchdown passes to just 14 interceptions — and he adds a threat with his legs. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 straight road games with the Total set at 42.5 to 45 — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Las Vegas may be due for an emotional letdown after pulling off two straight upset victories. We had the Raiders in their home opener with fans finally in Allegiant Stadium in their Monday night upset win against Baltimore. And while most of the world faded Las Vegas last week at Pittsburgh, we successfully avoided that trap (the Steelers' side of that situation was unappealing). Now the Raiders return home triumphant heroes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after two straight upset wins. Las Vegas has not been a reliable favorite under head coach Jon Gruden. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. They will likely be without starting running back Josh Jacobs and right guard Richie Incognito. Missing Jacobs will put more pressure on Derek Carr.  the Raiders only rushed for 52 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while Carr has passed for at least 373 yards in his first two games, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. The Raiders’ defense has played better (the August acquisitions of linebackers K.J. Wright and Denzel Perryman was massive for this team to overcome general manager Mike Mayock’s whiffs in the draft) — but I am not sold that this is an elite unit quite yet. Baltimore gained 406 yards against them before Ben Roethlisberger passed for 292 yards last week.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Raiders. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (487) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (415) and the Washington Huskies (416). THE SITUATION: California (1-2) won their first game of the season last week with their 42-30 victory against Sacramento State as a 23.5-point favorite. Washington (1-2) got their first victory of the year last week as well after their 52-3 win against Arkansas State as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies only scored 17 combined points in their first two games against Eastern Washington and Michigan before their offensive outburst against the Red Wolves. But the Under is 11-4-1 in Washington’s last 16 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total at home after scoring at least 42 points. The Huskies generated 598 yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Head coach Jimmy Lake is a defensive coach who wears “Run the Damn Ball” baseball caps to communicate his philosophy. He hired the former Penn State offensive coordinator John Donovan who could not get work after a failed stint there under head coach James Franklin before being replaced by Joe Moorehead who had an immediate impact on the their offensive production by bringing the Nittany Lions into the 21st century. Sophomore Dylan Morris has been inconsistent this season but he does come off his best game. What remains dominant is the Washington defense that has elite future NFL talent in defensive end Zion Tupola-Fetui and cornerback Trent McDuffie. Washington is allowing only 15.7 PPG and 295.7 total YPG. They held Arkansas State to just 268 total yards — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the Huskies’ last 26 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore. Washington has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games in September Under the Total. Cal rushed for 248 yards last week in their victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 200 yards. The Golden Bears will look to run the football in this game to control time of possession. Quarterback Chase Garbers completed 22 of 34 passes for 288 yards last week — and Cal has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Bears gave up 467 yards last week to Sacramento State — but they have then played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after giving up at least 450 yards in their last contest. Head coach Justin Wilcox returns eight starters from a unit that held their opponent’s 67 Yards-Per-Game below their season average, 18th best in the nation. Cal goes back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Bears have upset the Huskies in the last two meetings between these two teams with 39 and 22 combined points scored in those games. These two teams have played 10 of 11 meetings Under the Total including 6 straight Unders when playing in Seattle. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (415) and the Washington Huskies (416). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (387) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (388). THE SITUATION: UTSA (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-13 victory against Middle Tennessee as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday. Memphis (3-0) comes off a 31-28 upset win at home against Mississippi State as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers were very fortunate to pull off the upset victory against an SEC opponent last week. They needed a 49-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 94-yard punt return for a touchdown to overcome them getting outgained by -222 net yards. Memphis only gained 246 yards and 12 first downs in the game. Now off the emotional high from a signature win against a Power-Five conference opponent and with a date at conference rival Temple next week, this is a dangerous sandwich game against a talented UTSA squad that has had this game circled to make the statement they hope to make this season. As it is, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. After Brady White graduated, head coach Ryan Silverfield hoped to place another former Arizona State transfer under center in Grant Gunnell — but a preseason leg injury has kept him out of action. Silverfield has turned to true freshman Seth Henigan as his starting quarterback. While the rookie has passed for 841 yards, he struggled last week by passing for just 159 yards despite completing 16 of 28 passes. The running game did not offer much help either as the Tigers ran for just 87 yards on 25 carries. The Memphis pass defense has been exposed so far this season as well — they rank 102nd in opponent’s Pass Success Rate and 82nd in Havoc Rate. The Tigers do have a 17-game winning streak at home at the Liberty Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. UTSA wants to claim the prize of being the best Group of Five teams in the nation. Second-year head coach Jeff Taylor has 21 starters back from the team that finished 7-5 that only lost to Louisiana by a 31-24 score in the First Responder Bowl. They opened their season by upsetting Illinois on the road. The Roadrunners returned their top 14 tacklers from last year and added three transfers from Power-Five programs. They held the Blue Raiders to just 199 yards last week. The offense has all five starters back on the offensive line plus both quarterbacks who played last year. Dual-threat Frank Harris ran for 56 yards last week — and he completed 24 of 39 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes. Running back Sincere McCormick rushed for 1476 yards last season. Traylor did not have the benefit of spring practices due to COVID — so this season has presented his first offseason with the program from the former SMU running backs coach. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Roadrunners have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. UTSA wants to make a similar statement that the Tigers were fortunate to make last week. With Memphis perhaps looking ahead to American Athletic Conference play — and relying on a true freshman in what may become an anxious game — don’t be surprised if the Roadrunners pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (387) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (390) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). THE SITUATION: TCU (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 34-32 win against California two weeks ago as an 11.5-point favorite. SMU (3-0) is also unbeaten this year after their 39-37 win at Louisiana Tech last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU outgained the Golden Bears by a 505-442 yardage mark two weeks ago — but Max Duggan throwing an 84-yard interception that was returned for a touchdown helped Cal stay competitive in the game. TCU controlled possession for 36:23 minutes in the game which is a good sign for head coach Gary Patterson. The extra week to rest and prepare for the Mustangs will help the defensive mastermind shore up a unit that gave up an uncharacteristic 442 total yards. TCU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 68 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Horned Frogs gained 505 total yards against Cal — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. TCU’s offense had to overcome many injuries early in the season last year. After a rough 1-3 start, the Horned Frogs finished strong by winning five of their last six games — so they enter this contest on a seven of eight-run overall. Duggan is a third-year sophomore quarterback who looks poised for a breakout season. He completed 17 of 31 passes for 2234 yards with three touchdowns against Cal while adding 71 rushing yards with another touchdown on the ground. Running back Zach Evans added 190 rushing yards in that game. The Horned Frogs’ defense should play better with seven starters back from the unit that allowed 24.2 PPG and 351 total Yards-Per-Game. TCU hosts this game where they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when favored. SMU got a 33-yard hail mary touchdown pass from quarterback Tanner Mordecai on the final play of the game to avoid being upset by Louisiana Tech last weekend. But the Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road after a victory where they did not cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 21 games after a close win decided by three points or less. The defense for head coach Sonny Dykes looks to be a problem once again this season. After giving up 506 yards to North Texas two weeks ago, Louisiana Tech generated 483 yards. Now they face another spread offensive attack but now with Power-Five conference recruits. The deeper metrics indict the unit. The Mustangs are just 88th in the nation in Adjusted Line Yards allowed indicating their struggles in stopping the run. They rank 74th in opponent’s Success Rate against the pass — and they are just 96th in Havoc Rate on defense. They have allowed 384 and 351 passing yards in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. SMU stays on the road for the second straight week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Patterson has had two weeks to pound into his team the memory of their 41-38 loss at home to SMU back on September 21st in the last meeting between these two teams. TCU was a 7.5-point favorite in that game. 25* CFB Saturday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (390) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (308) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (307). THE SITUATION: Virginia (2-1) lost the first game of their season last Saturday with their 59-39 loss at North Carolina as a 7.5-point underdog. Wake Forest (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-14 victory at home against Florida State as a 4.5-point favorite as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia was facing a Tar Heels team already with one loss on the season highly motivated to avenge a loss from last year — so that was a tough situation (and we had North Carolina in that one). The Cavaliers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Virginia generated 574 yards against the Tar Heels defense in the loss — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now the Cavaliers return home where they have won 19 of their last 21 games under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia may have been just 5-5 last year in the season impacted by COVID following their big 2019 campaign where they made it to the ACC Championship Game and played in the Orange Bowl — but they were 5-1 straight-up at home. The Cavaliers are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. Virginia is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Mendenhall has 14 starters back plus some high-profile transfers back this season that won four of their last five games after a rough 1-4 start in an injury-riddled campaign. Junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong is back after he passed for at least 200 yards while rushing for at least 45 yards six times last year. He completed 39 of 54 passes for 554 yards with four touchdown passes against North Carolina last week. The play of the Virginia defense should improve under Mendenhall who is one of the best defensive teachers in the nation. The Cavaliers are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest comes off a big win against a reeling Seminoles team that remains winless this season — and they benefited from a +4 net turnover margin in that contest. Now the Demon Deacons play their first game away from Winston Salem this season — and they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road this season. Wake Forest has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Demon Deacons are tough to beat at home where they now have an 11-2 straight-up record in the last three seasons — but they have only won three of their last eleven games on the road during that span. Head coach Dave Clawson has 19 starters back from the group that finished 4-5 last year after a 45-28 loss to Wisconsin in the Mayo Bowl. Wake Forest was 3-4 in ACC play — but they were outgained by -55 net Yards-Per-Game. They were also outscored by -23 Points-Per-Game in their eight games against FBS opponents last year. They allowed 37 or more points five times last season. Their first two games this season were against Old Dominion and Norfolk State before their victory against Florida State last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia will be motivated to avenge a 40-23 loss at Wake Forest as a 2.5-point underdog last season on October 17th. After the Cavaliers lost to a one-loss Tar Heels team playing at home with the opportunity to avenge a loss from last year, now Virginia finds themselves in that same spot. While that scenario is certainly not an auto-bet situation, the Cavaliers are tough at home at Scott Stadium and the Demon Deacons struggle on the road. 25* CFB Friday Television Game of the Month with the Virginia Cavaliers (308) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (302) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (301). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-1) looks to rebound from a 31-21 loss at Cleveland as a 13.5-point underdog on Sunday. Carolina (2-0) comes into this game after a 26-7 upset win against New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: The Panthers are the toast of the NLF right now with their 2-0 start after their decisive victory against the Saints. But that win against New Orleans was against a team that was without eight coaches due to a COVID outbreak — wreaking havoc on their in-game coaching, sideline management, and who knows what else. The Saints were also dealing with some tough injuries on defense with Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Davenport, and Kwon Alexander all out. The Panthers held New Orleans to just 128 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Sam Darnold has played well so far in his liberation from the Jets and Adam Gase — but this will be his first game in a hostile environment after Carolina’s first two games were at home. The schedule for the Panthers has been fortunate with them hosting the hapless Jets and then the undermanned Saints last week. While the defensive numbers have improved, this remains a team that was bottom-five in opponents rushing Yards-Per-Carry for two straight seasons. Carolina was 27th in Red Zone Offense and 30th in goal-to-go situations last season despite having wunderkind Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator last year. The Panthers’ defense was second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to convert on 49.2% of their third downs. I am just not ready to buy that Carolina should be laying more than a touchdown on the road in a short week. As it is, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games playing on a Thursday Night. Houston beat Jacksonville at home before covering the point spread but losing to the Browns on the road last week. The Texans will be without starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor who will be out at least four weeks after being put on IR for a hamstring injury. That means rookie Davis Mills will be the starting quarterback. The third-round pick from Stanford has upside — but he is raw after not playing much in his collegiate career after COVID shortened his junior season as a Cardinal to just five games. Houston is not going to ask Mills to win this game with his arm — they will likely deploy their rushing attack behind Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and David Johnson being a solid offensive line that features Laremy Tunsil at left tackle and Tytus Howard at right tackle. Mills completed 8 of 18 passes for 102 yards with a touchdown and an interception in relief of Taylor last week. In the preseason, Mills completed 31 of 65 yards for 333 yards with two touchdowns (and four interceptions). There have been comparisons with him and Andrew Luck besides the obvious same alma mater. Mills is smart and has arm talent — offensive coordinator Tim Kelly will likely not ask him to do more than what he is capable of. They prepared for this possibility/eventuality of Mills playing in the preseason — so the short week probably helps the Texans than it does the Panthers in preparing for the new quarterback.

FINAL TAKE: Houston is a mess of a franchise with the Deshaun Watson issues and the creepy Jack Easterby having too much influence over team decisions despite having no football background. This is an Island of Misfit Toys — but they have brought in a bunch of castoff veterans who have bought in 65-year-old rookie head coach David Culley. This team is going to play hard — and they have covered the point spread 4 straight games as an underdog. Carolina is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games as a favorite. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (302) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (301) and the Houston Texans (302). THE SITUATION: Carolina (2-0) comes into this game after a 26-7 upset win against New Orleans as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Houston (1-1) looks to rebound from a 31-21 loss at Cleveland as a 13.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Houston has also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Texans will be without starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor who will be out at least four weeks after being put on IR for a hamstring injury. That means rookie Davis Mills will be the starting quarterback. The third-round pick from Stanford has upside — but he is raw after not playing much in his collegiate career after COVID shortened his junior season as a Cardinal to just five games. Houston is not going to ask Mills to win this game with his arm — they will likely deploy their rushing attack behind Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and David Johnson being a solid offensive line that features Laremy Tunsil at left tackle and Tytus Howard at right tackle. The Texans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Houston defense did give up 156 rushing yards last week to the Browns ground game — but the Texans have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Houston added 19 free agents on defense in the offseason for new defensive coordinator Lovie Smith to revamp a unit that allowed 29.0 PPG. Carolina has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread victory. The Panthers have also played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after an upset win against an NFC South opponent. Sam Darnold has played well for the team in his first two starts after coming over after his failed stint with the New York Jets. But this will be his first start on the road for Carolina. The Panthers averaged only 5.25 Yards-Per-Play while gaining 373 yards last week while controlling the clock for 38:32 minutes of their win against the Saints. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they only rushed for 89 yards against New Orleans, they have played 5 straight Unders after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Second-year head coach Matt Rhule is likely to lean on running back Christian McCaffrey in this game with this being Darnold’s first start on the road. Expect plenty of running from both teams and stalled drives in the red zone from both these quarterbacks. The one unit that appears reliable is the Carolina defense that has allowed only 21 points in there first two games. Rhule’s commitment to youth last year seems to have paid off — the Panthers led the NFL with 287 tackles from rookies last season. Third-year defensive end Brian Burns out of Florida State appears to be a rising superstar in the league. The Panthers have allowed only 47 rushing yards on 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have already generated 10 sacks. They are giving up only 190 total YPG — and they are facing a rookie quarterback without too many starts in college. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when favored — and the Texans have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total at home as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (301) and the Houston Texans (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (297) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (298). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-1) enters this game coming off a 41-33 loss to San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 38-3 upset loss against New Orleans in Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Packers were complacent traveling to Jacksonville to play a Saints team learning to live life without Drew Brees. And when teams get close to winning a championship, they can get lulled into thinking the first game of the new season is the continuation of the previous season — so they can just flip the switch. Green Bay has lost in the NFC Championship Game two years in a row. After a tumultuous offseason where Aaron Rodgers threatened retirement, the culture inside the room is not very good for this team. But this team was still in first place after Week One with all four of the NFC North teams losing. Now returning home to host Detroit, I do not see the team suddenly embracing a sense of urgency. I will not be surprised if they remain somewhat complacent tonight. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Despite winning 13 games in the regular season last year, they only outgained their opponents by +55.0 net Yards-Per-Game — and that is not the formula to cover a point spread this big. A strength of this team has been their offensive line — but they are now without two All-Pros from last year with left tackle Davis Bakhtiari on IR and center Corey Linsley gone in free agency. But the defense of the Packers is perhaps the bigger issue. After nose tackle Kenny Clark and cornerback Jaire Alexander, the talent level of this group assembled by general manager Brian Gutekunst is questionable — and they are dealing with injuries. Linebacker Za’Darius Smith is on Injured Reserve and depth safety Vernon Scott is out with a hamstring. Additionally, starting safety Darnell Savage is questionable with a shoulder leaving the Pack thin at the position. LaFleur hired Joe Barry, the former defensive coordinator of the winless Lions team under Rod Marinelli as his defensive coordinator. At least Marinelli had the excuse of Barry being his son-in-law. Barry has never coached a defense that finished better than 27th in total defense in his time with Detroit and later with Washington. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. It was encouraging for the Lions not ever giving up as they scored 33 points and gained 430 yards against the stout San Francisco defense. Quarterback Jared Goff was effective even without being scripted to death by boy-genius Sean McVay. Goff completed 38 of 57 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns operating the Anthony Lynn-coached offense. Wide receiver Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol and out for this game — but his presence on the field was never going to transform this Lions’ offense. Detroit is going to run the football and pass the ball to tight end T.J. Hockenson before looking for open wide receivers — and a majority of their points last week was after the former Raiders’ wide receiver left the game. The Lions have an underrated offensive line — and rookie Penei Sewell thrived at left tackle replacing the injured Taylor Decker. After struggling in the preseason in making the move to right tackle, Sewell eased back into the left tackle slot and handled Nick Bosa. D’Andre Swift is expected to play tonight at running back joining a dynamic duo with Jamaal Williams.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the NFC. Detroit is undervalued right now — while this is not a playoff team, this organization is so much better off simply by getting rid of Patricia and Quinn. The players hated them both, and that impacted how hard they would play. This group is playing hard for Campbell, who they think is one of them. Addition by subtraction. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (297) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (297) and the Green Bay Packers (298). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-1) enters this game coming off a 41-33 loss to San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 38-3 upset loss against New Orleans in Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers were out-of-synch last week against the Saints. New Orleans took them out of their game in the first half of that game by running the ball and controlling the time of possession. Green Bay was only on offense for 25:24 minutes in that game. Back at home in Lambeau Field on national television, the Packers should start fast and remain furious all night. The Packers have played 45 of their last 70 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 6 points in their last contest. And while Green Bay managed only 3 points in the first half last week, they have then played a decisive 43 of their last 60 games Over the Total after not scoring more than a field goal in their last game. But the defense of the Packers is an issue. After nose tackle Kenny Clark and cornerback Jaire Alexander, the talent level of this group assembled by general manager Brian Gutekunst is questionable — and they are dealing with injuries. Linebacker Za’Darius Smith is on Injured Reserve and depth safety Vernon Scott is out with a hamstring. Additionally, starting safety Darnell Savage is questionable with a shoulder leaving the Pack thin at the position. LaFleur hired Joe Barry, the former defensive coordinator of the winless Lions team under Rod Marinelli as his defensive coordinator. At least Marinelli had the excuse of Barry being his son-in-law. Barry has never coached a defense that finished better than 27th in total defense in his time with Detroit and later with Washington. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Over the Total in September. Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in September after last week’s game that saw 74 combined points scored. The Lions have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Detroit was last in the NFL last season by allowing 32.4 PPG and 419.8 total YPG in the last year under defensive wunderkind Matt Patricia. He inherited a unit that allowed 23.5 PPG. It will take time for the stink of Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn to leave this organization. One of Quinn’s mistakes was drafting Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah when Justin Herbert was available in the 2020 draft. Okudah is now out the season after an Achilles tear last week — and while he has underperformed his top-three draft pick status, it is still a significant loss in the secondary. The 49ers gained 442 yards against them. But what was encouraging was the Lions not giving up as they scored 33 points and gained 430 yards against the stout San Francisco defense. Quarterback Jared Goff was effective even without being scripted to death by boy-genius Sean McVay. Goff completed 38 of 57 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns operating the Anthony Lynn-coached offense. Wide receiver Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol and out for this game — but his presence on the field was never going to transform this Lions’ offense. Detroit is going to run the football and pass the ball to tight end T.J. Hockenson before looking for open wide receivers — and a majority of their points last week was after the former Raiders’ wide receiver left the game. The Lions have an underrated offensive line — and rookie Penei Sewell thrived at left tackle replacing the injured Taylor Decker. After struggling in the preseason making the move to right tackle, Sewell eased back into the left tackle slots and handled Nick Bosa. D’Andre Swift is expected to play tonight at running back joining a dynamic duo with Jamaal Williams. Detroit has played 4 straight Overs after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against NFC North opponents — and the Packer have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against divisional foes. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (297) and the Green Bay Packers (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (296) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (295). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-1) looks to rebound from their 33-29 upset loss in overtime at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Kansas City (1-0) comes off a 33-29 win against Cleveland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs overcame a slow start at home against the Browns by rallying from their 12-point halftime deficit to win that game. But Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. But of concern is the Chiefs’ defense that allowed 457 yards to the Browns last week. The deeper analytics exposed the KC defense as worse than their raw numbers suggest. They ranked 22nd last season in the Football Outsiders DVOA numbers — and they were 31st in run defense DVOA. There is a fundamental flaw with the Chiefs’ defense with their reliance on linebacker William Gay. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo needs Gay on the field to help shore up his run defense — yet he is a liability in the pass coverage. KC was second-to-last in the NFL last season in DVOA in pass coverage against running backs. These are weaknesses that the Baltimore run-oriented offensive attack can exploit. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Kansas City goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Baltimore averaged 6.3 Yards-Per-Play last week en route to ganging 406 yards against the Raiders. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after generating at least 6.0 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. Quarterback Lamar Jackson accounted for 321 total yards combined from the air and ground last week. But the Baltimore defense gave up 491 yards in that game with Las Vegas playing catchup all night before winning the game in OT. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Baltimore is dealing with many injuries — but head coach John Harbaugh is fully committed to the “next man up” mentality.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog — and the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (296) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (295). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (295) and the Baltimore Ravens (296). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (1-0) comes off a 33-29 win against Cleveland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (0-1) looks to rebound from their 33-29 upset loss in overtime at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs started slow last week by scoring only 10 points in the first 30 minutes of that game. But Patrick Mahomes did what he needed to do in the second half to lead his team to the comeback victory after trailing by 12 points at halftime. Kansas City scored 29.6 PPG last season and they ended up topping that number against a good Browns defense. The Chiefs also led the NFL last season by generating 415.8 total YPG. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Mahomes’ final numbers once again looked great — he completed 27 of 36 passes for 337 yards and three touchdowns. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Mahomes plays a Wink Martindale-coached defense who led the league by blitzing on 44.1% of their opponents’ dropbacks — and Mahomes is notorious for shredding defenses that blitz him since he is mobile enough to create extra time to exploit the pass coverage that is down at least one man. Mahomes has been incredible in his career in his September games. He entered the regular season with a 124.4 Passer Rating in September while completing 67.6% of his passes. He now has 35 touchdown passes and no interceptions in September. But of concern is the Chiefs’ defense that allowed 457 yards to the Browns last week. The deeper analytics exposed the KC defense as worse than their raw numbers suggest. They ranked 22nd last season in the Football Outsiders DVOA numbers — and they were 31st in run defense DVOA. There is a fundamental flaw with the Chiefs’ defense with their reliance on linebacker William Gay. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo needs Gay on the field to help shore up his run defense — yet he is a liability in the pass coverage. KC was second-to-last in the NFL last season in DVOA in pass coverage against running backs. These are weaknesses that the Baltimore run-oriented offensive attack can exploit. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Kansas City has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Ravens are ravaged with injuries — they are without lockdown cornerback Marcus Peters (a crushing loss for this matchup) after his season-ending torn ACL. They are also without linebacker L.J. Fort who is on IR — and four players in the two-deep are questionable including starting defensive end Derek Wolfe and starting cornerback Jimmy Smith. Derek Carr passed for 409 yards against them on Monday en route to the Raiders’ 491 total yards. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards — and they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Ravens still have quarterback Lamar Jackson who accounted for 321 total yards combined from the air and ground last week. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens will be looking to avenge a 34-20 loss at home to the Chiefs on September 20th last season. What was memorable from that game was how aggressive John Harbaugh was regarding going for it on fourth down and attempting 2-point conversions. He leads the way with the mentality that beating KC is a race to score at least 35 points. That is the formula for another Over between these two teams. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (295) and the Baltimore Ravens (296). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (285) and the New York Jets (286). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 17-16 upset loss at home to Miami as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (0-1) comes off a 19-14 loss at Carolina as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots’ defense flexed their muscles last week by holding the Dolphins to just 259 total yards. A late fumble cost them the game with Miami. New England controlled the time of possession to keep Tua Tagavailoa off the field last week as they were on offense for 36:43 minutes. The Patriots gained 393 yards in that game — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones completed 29 of 39 passes for 281 yards in his professional debut — but the Patriots have then played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Jones plays his first professional road game in a hostile environment — and it is against a defensive head coach in the Jets’ Robert Saleh. Jones may struggle — but Belichick is likely to lean more on the running game in this contest because he is playing in his first road game. As it is, New England has played 4 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total when favored. Jones may not have right tackle Trent Brown for this game as well as he is listed as questionable with a calf injury. The Patriots have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in September. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson completed 20 of 37 passes for 258 yards in his debut — but the Jets’ only managed 252 total yards in the game. The Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Wilson lost his left tackle Mekhi Becton who suffered a knee injury that put him on IR. Now Wilson has to face Belichick who thrives in confusing rookie quarterbacks with sophisticated defensive schemes. New York was last in the NFL last year with a 15.2 PPG scoring average and a 279.9 total YPG average. The Jets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at MetLife Stadium. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (285) and the New York Jets (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (203) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (204). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (2-1) comes off a 63-10 victory against Cal-Poly SLO last week as a 32.5-point favorite on Saturday. UCLA (2-0) returns to action after their 38-27 upset win at home against LSU as a 1-point underdog two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bruins have been hearing about how good they all are for the last two weeks and how they are destined to play for the Pac-12 Championship. After head coach Chip Kelly compiled a 10-21 record in his first three seasons with the program, the only place to go was up. But handling the weight of expectations is new to these players. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored. It has been as close to an ideal start as possible for this team. They have yet to commit a turnover — and they are holding their opponents to just 5.8 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. But perhaps their first two opponents were just not very good. Hawai’i just lost to Oregon State by a 45-27 score last week. LSU is a mess and probably overconfident in that game playing a Pac-12 program that finished 3-4 last season. Senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson still has his shaky moments. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Fresno State is dangerous — as they demonstrated in a 31-24 loss at Oregon, the team that then upset Ohio State in Columbus the next week. Some critics discount that result as the Ducks looking ahead to the Buckeyes — but I don’t buy it. The Bulldogs rebounded from that loss to beat their last two opponents by a 108-10 point margin. Fresno State should enter this game with confidence as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by 20 or more points. Head coach Kalen DeBoer has 19 starters back from the team that finished 3-3. For the third straight season, the Bulldogs averaged at least 30 Points-Per-Game with their 32.8 PPG scoring mark. Led by senior quarterback Jake Haener once again after he lead the Mountain West Conference by averaging 336.8 passing YPG, Fresno State is scoring 44.0 PPG this year. The former Washington transfer completed 17 of 22 passes last week for 380 yards and four touchdowns while leading the offense to 671 yards of offense. The Bulldogs are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after gaining at least 280 yards in the air in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 39 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. With 1st-Team All-Mountain West Conference running back Ronnie Rivers back along with four returning starters at wide receiver and tight end, this team has the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bruins. Fresno State is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games in September — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. UCLA is 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against non-conference foes. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with Fresno State Bulldogs (203) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (186) minus the points versus Virginia Cavaliers (185). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (1-1) bounced-back from their opening week loss to Virginia Tech by crushing Georgia State by a 59-17 score as a 26-point favorite last Saturday. Virginia (2-0) is unbeaten after their 42-14 win against Illinois as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: I was not terribly surprised that North Carolina got upset on the road against the Hokies two weeks ago. Mack Brown’s team may have been a bit overrated after returning 21 of the 22 starters that played in the Orange Bowl against Texas A&M last season. But this is a talented team that Brown has assembled — he is recruiting great in Chapel Hill. Sophomore quarterback Sam Howell rebounded by completing 21 of 29 passes for 352 yards with two touchdown passes as he continues to get more comfortable with his new set receivers after Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome went pro in the offseason. North Carolina absolutely dominated the Panthers by gaining 607 yards and allowing only 271 yards. The Tar Heels averaged 8.54 Yards-Per-Play while holding Georgia State to 3.61 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a game where they averaged at least 6.75 YPP and held their opponent to 3.75 YPP. Furthermore, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. The Tar Heels returned ten starters and 82% of their production on defense from last season. Furthermore, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Virginia has dominated their first two opponents in William & Mary and the Illini. But this is a program that does not fare well after consecutive dominating performances. The Cavaliers gained 545 and 556 yards in their first two games but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last two games. And while Virginia outgained those two opponents by +382 and +221 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +125 yards. Now this team plays their first road game of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina’s dreams of a perfect season may be gone — but they can still earn the right to play in the ACC Championship Game. They can also avenge their 44-41 loss at Virginia last season where they were 8-point road favorites. The Tar Heels were second in the ACC last year by outgaining their opponents by +148 net Yards-Per-Game. They tend to be reliable favorites (despite the upset loss on the road to the Cavaliers last year). 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the North Carolina Tar Heels (186) minus the points versus Virginia Cavaliers (185). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (143) and the Florida Gators (144). THE SITUATION: Alabama (2-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 48-14 victory against Mercer as a 54-point favorite last Saturday. Florida (2-0) is also undefeated so far this season after their 42-20 win at South Florida as a 29-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide enters this game as a favorite laying two touchdowns — and they are the biggest road favorite against a top-15 team in the Associated Press poll since 2000. Head coach Nick Saban has changed the focus of his program from emphasizing a ferocious defense to showcasing a high-powered offense. With the innovations of using tempo to the offense’s advantage to getting the ball out to speedsters in space, Saban concluded that “if you can’t beat ‘em, then join them”. Alabama has scored at least 31 points in 40 of their last 43 games — including 28 games in a row where they reached the 31-point plateau. Saban has prioritized bringing in the top high school quarterbacks in the country starting with Tua Tagovailoa — and sophomore Bryce Young may be his crown jewel just yet. Young completed 19 of 27 passes for 227 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. In his debut two weeks ago against Miami (FL), Young completed 27 of 38 passes for 344 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Crimson Tide has scored in 14 of their 19 drives so far this season. The Bama offense should continue to crank this week. The Over is 14-6-1 in their last 21 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by at least four touchdowns. The Tide’s defense has taken some hits at linebacker. Senior Christopher Allen is out indefinitely with a foot injury and sophomore Will Anderson is questionable with a knee. Alabama did hold the Tigers to just 216 yards — but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Over is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 20 points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. And while Alabama did not allow a point in the first half last week, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not giving up more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Additionally, the Over is 7-3-1 in the Tide’s last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total in September. Florida is the only team to stay within one scoring possession of Alabama in the Crimson Tide’s last 16 games. Head coach Dan Mullen knows he will have to be aggressive like he was last season in their 52-46 loss in the SEC Championship Game. While quarterback Kyle Trask, tight end Kyle Pitts, and wide receiver Kadarius Toney have moved on to the NFL, Mullen still has explosive talent at his disposal. Quarterbacks Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson have combined for 456 yards passing and 430 yards rushing while frustrating defenses with the different looks they offer. Running back Malik Davis is averaging 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and four different wide receivers have registered a reception of at least 20 yards. The Gators offense has already had 17 plays that accumulated at least 20 yards. Florida gained 666 total yards against the Bulls last week with 363 of those yards on the ground. The Gators have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Florida has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Gators have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Florida has only given up 34 points this season — but the test is much stiffer this week after cupcake games against the Bulls and FAU. The Gators have played 4 straight Overs as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Gainesville. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (143) and the Florida Gators (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (102) minus the points versus the New York Giants (101). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-1) looks to rebound from a 20-16 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. New York (0-1) comes off a 27-13 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS THE POINTS: Washington let us down on Sunday in blowing their game with the Chargers — but they were in a position to win that game late even after the early injury to quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. After turning Los Angeles over inside their own ten-yard line, Washington fumbled on their 3-yard line to give the ball right back and allow Justin Herbert to score the winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. The boxscore says that the Football Team only generated 259 total yards — but they only had the ball for 23:57 minutes of that game. They averaged 5.40 Yards-Per-Play which is not great, but not nearly as bad as the 259 total yards appears at first glance. Head coach Ron Rivera is high on Taylor Heinicke who will be his quarterback. He completed 11 of 15 passes for 122 yards with a touchdown pass against the Chargers on Sunday. He also kept the Football Team competitive in his start against Tampa Bay in the playoffs last year. The key for this game is to control the time of possession to wear out the suspect Giants' defense while keeping their defense fresh. Washington passed for only 133 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not passing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And while they allowed 424 yards (but only 5.57 Yards-Per-Play), they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. New York was dominated at home last week against a Broncos team that outgained them by +106 net yards. The Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. New York continued a seemingly endemic characteristic of this franchise to start the new slowly to the new season — they have now failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in September. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances on Thursday Night Football. The Giants’ offense was 31st in the NFL last season by scoring only 17.5 PPG and generating just 299.6 total YPG. Running back Saquon Barkley rushed only ten times for 26 yards against Denver as he nurses a sore knee. While he will play, the quick turnaround on a short week does not help. Tight end Evan Engram has been declared out with the calf injury that kept him off the field on Sunday. The Giants’ offensive line was a mess last year — and after losing guard Kevin Zeitler in the offseason in a salary-cap move, they brought in Zach Fulton who then became one of three players to retire early in head coach Joe Judge’s training camp. Now they face the ferocious Washington defensive line with four former first-round draft picks led by Chase Young. The Football Team was second in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 304.6 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Despite Justin Herbert’s big numbers, the Football Team has still not allowed more than 20 points in seven straight games. Washington started last season 1-5 — but they closed the year by winning six of ten before losing by a 31-23 score to the Buccaneers. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Football Team (102) minus the points versus the New York Giants (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (101) and the Washington Football Team (102). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) comes off a 27-13 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (0-1) looks to rebound from a 20-16 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants allowed 420 yards to the Broncos last week — but they were also on the field for 35:08 minutes of that game. Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham did a great job with that unit last year as they ranked ninth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 22.3 PPG. New York ranked second in the league by limiting their opponents to just a 50.8% touchdown rate when reaching the Red Zone — I expect more stalled drives for the Football Team that will lack the savvy veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Cornerback James Bradberry is one of the best in the business — and they added cornerback Adoree Jackson from Carolina and drafted outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari from Georgia in the second round to bolster the pass rush. The Giants’ defense should lead the way for them in this divisional showdown — they have played 6 straight Unders after a double-digit loss at home. New York has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The bigger concern is with the Giants’ offense that was 31st in the NFL last season by scoring only 17.5 PPG and generating just 299.6 total YPG. Running back Saquon Barkley rushed only ten times for 26 yards as he nurses a sore knee. While he will play, the quick turnaround on a short week does not help. Tight end Evan Engram has been declared out with the calf injury that kept him off the field on Sunday. The Giants’ offensive line was a mess last year — and after losing guard Kevin Zeitler in the offseason in a salary-cap move, they brought in Zach Fulton who then became one of three players to retire early in head coach Joe Judge’s training camp. Now they face the ferocious Washington defensive line with four former first-round draft picks led by Chase Young. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 straight Unders as an underdog. The Giants have played 6 straight Unders against losing teams. And in their last 5 games in September, New York has played 4 of these games Under the Total. Washington has played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after an upset loss in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss. The Football Team surrendered 424 total yards to the Chargers with 334 of these yards coming in the air. This embarrassed Washington defense should rebound with a strong effort. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after giving up at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Despite Justin Herbert’s big numbers, the Football Team has still not allowed more than 20 points in seven straight games. But scoring will remain a challenge with Fitzpatrick for an extended period after he injured his hip on Sunday. Taylor Heinicke gets his second career start and tenth appearance in an NFL game in this contest. Washington managed only 259 yards last week after ranking 30th in the league by averaging 317.3 total YPG. After finishing last in the league by averaging just 6.2 intended air yards per pass attempt, the two biggest fixes for this offense was bringing in Fitzpatrick and wide receiver Curtis Samuel. Both players are out for this game with Samuel on IR with a groin injury. Head coach Ron Rivera will just want Heinicke to be a game-manager in this one. The first team to 20 points probably wins. The Football Team has played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games against NFC East opponents Under the Total — and New York has played 5 straight Unders against divisional opponents. Furthermore, these two teams have played 20 of their last 28 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (101) and the Washington Football Team (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (481). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (0-0) comes off an 8-8 campaign last season in the third year under head coach Jon Gruden. Baltimore (0-0) lost to Buffalo by a 17-3 score in the AFC Divisional Playoffs after an 11-5 record in the regular season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: It will be a madhouse at Allegiant Stadium tonight in the first home game in Las Vegas where fans will be in attendance. As it is, the Raiders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on Monday Night Football. Gruden thinks his team is close to breaking through as a playoff team. Las Vegas blew three leads with less than 1:43 minutes left in the game last season. Finishing has been the biggest problem for this team under Gruden. The Raiders lost five of their final seven games of the season to blow their playoff chances. But Gruden got his team off to a fast start by winning six of their first nine games. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season. They host a wounded Ravens team that has been ravaged by injuries. Twelve players are on Injured Reserve including starting cornerback Marcus Peters and starting linebacker L.J. Fort. Baltimore will also be without starting defensive end Derek Wolfe who is dealing with a back injury. The offense has also taken several hits at running back and wide receiver. The Ravens have lost J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill at running back. Undrafted free agent, Ty’Son Williams, and Latavius Murray will be the primary running backs tonight. Murray lost the backup job in New Orleans to Tony Jones in training camp. Baltimore will also be without wide receivers, Miles Boykin and Rashod Bateman. Boykin is on IR with a hamstring injury and Bateman, their first-round draft pick from Minnesota, is on IR with a groin injury. Despite winning eleven games in the regular season, the Ravens only outgained their opponents by +33.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with Las Vegas Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (481) and the Las Vegas Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-0) comes off an 11-5 record in the regular season before losing to Buffalo by a 17-3 score in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Las Vegas (0-0) was 8-8 last season in the third year under head coach Jon Gruden.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raiders averaged 27.1 Points-Per-Game last season — and they were eight in the NFL by averaging 383.3 total YPG. They should score their share of points against Ravens def-dense dealing with a host of injuries — more on that below. Las Vegas has played 5 straight games Over the Total in September. They have also played 4 straight Overs when playing at home in Allegiant Stadium. Additionally, the Over is 7-1-1 in the Raiders’ last 9 games as an underdog — and the Over is 8-0-1 in their last 9 home games when they are getting the points. Furthermore, Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when the total is at 49.5 or higher. The weakness of this Raiders team remains their defense after they ranked 30th in the league by allowing 29.9 PPG. General manager Mike Mayock brought seven free agents and six rookies from the draft to jumpstart things — but the problem has been his talent selection. Las Vegas forced only 15 turnovers (third-fewest in the NFL) and generated only 21 sacks (fourth-fewest in the NFL) last season. Lamar Jackson will be able to operate the Ravens’ offense without much pushback. Baltimore averaged 29.3 PPG games last year. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the first month of the season. Baltimore has also played 8 of their last 13 road games Over the Total when favored. The team has been hit hard by injuries — but the losses on defense are more significant. Twelve players are on Injured Reserve including starting cornerback Marcus Peters and starting linebacker L.J. Fort. Baltimore will also be without starting defensive end Derek Wolfe who is dealing with a back injury. Jackson is the straw that stirs the drink for the offense — but the Ravens are taking a step on defense with all these injuries.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight Overs in their last 5 encounters. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (481) and the Las Vegas Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (479) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (480). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) comes off an 8-8 season where they lost to New Orleans by a 21-0 score in the NFC Wildcard playoffs. Los Angeles (0-0) was 10-6 last season and lost in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs in a 32-18 loss to Green Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Matthew Stafford is getting almost all the attention for the Rams this season after they acquired the veteran quarterback in the offseason in a blockbuster trade with Detroit. I like Stafford at quarterback — but I am in the “pump the brakes” crowd for those who think he will the league’s MVP while leading the Rams to the Super Bowl. The days of head coach Sean McVay scheming against eight defenders in the box to dare Jared Goff to throw are long gone. And the Rams took a major hit with the season-ending injury to Cam Akers. Darrell Henderson gets the initial starting job at running back — but I am not as high on the former Memphis all-purpose back because all indications are that the Rams do not have confidence in him. They have rarely allowed him to be the lead back in his first two seasons in the league despite the declining physical skills of Todd Gurley and an unsettled backfield last season. They signed Sony Michel last month for a reason — but he was the odd man out in New England who is seeing his skills decline as well. Stafford plays against an underrated defense in this Bears unit that is quite familiar with his tendencies. Chicago was just 11th in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to 344.9 total YPG — but they faced the most difficult schedule in terms of offensive efficiency last year. They have elite players in their back seven in free safety Eddie Jackson and linebacker Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Andy Dalton may not be the exciting choice at quarterback by head coach Matt Nagy — but the savvy veteran should be able to keep Chicago in the game without making costly mistakes that rookie Justin Fields might.

FINAL TAKE: These are two playoff teams from last season. While the ceiling for the Bears appears lower, the Bears' defense should keep them within one scoring possession. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Chicago Bears (479) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) comes off an 8-8 season where they lost to New Orleans by a 21-0 score in the NFC Wildcard playoffs. Los Angeles (0-0) was 10-6 last season and lost in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs in a 32-18 loss to Green Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Matthew Stafford is getting almost all the attention for the Rams this season after they acquired the veteran quarterback in the offseason in a blockbuster trade with Detroit. But it is the Los Angeles defense that deserves more attention. Led by defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the Rams possess one of the best defenses in the league once again after leading the NFL by allowing only 18.5 PPG and 281.9 total YPG. The 4.6 Yards-Per-Play they held their opponents to last year was +0.33 YPP better than the second-best defensive team. Opponents scored on just 27.9% of their drives last year — the best mark in the league. Now this group goes against an Andy Dalton-led Bears’ offense — more on that below. Los Angeles has played 14 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total — including seven straight at home when favored to close out last season. The Rams have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total when the favorite. And in their last 16 games in the first half of the season, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. I like Stafford at quarterback — but I am in the “pump the brakes” crowd for those who think he will the league’s MVP while leading the Rams to the Super Bowl. The days of head coach Sean McVay scheming against eight defenders in the box to dare Jared Goff to throw are long gone. And the Rams took a major hit with the season-ending injury to Cam Akers. Darrell Henderson gets the initial starting job at running back — but I am not as high on the former Memphis all-purpose back because all indications are that the Rams do not have confidence in him. They rarely allowed him to be the lead back in his first two seasons in the league despite the declining physical skills of Todd Gurley and an unsettled backfield last season. They signed Sony Michel last month for a reason — but he was the odd man out in New England who is seeing his skills decline as well. Stafford plays against an underrated defense in this Bears unit that is quite familiar with his tendencies. Chicago was just 11th in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to 344.9 total YPG — but they faced the most difficult schedule in terms of offensive efficiency last year. They have elite players in their back seven in free safety Eddie Jackson and linebacker Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack. The issue is far — and for how long — will Dalton lead this offense that averaged only 23.3 PPG last season. Rookie Justin Fields is probably not the starting quarterback yet because an opening test against Donald and Ramsey is frightening. Chicago has played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total — and they have played 35 of their last 54 road games Under the Total when getting 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Matt Nagy will not try to engage in a shootout with McVay and Stafford. Chicago is going to run the football — they rushed for at least 108 yards in each of their last six games last season after not cracking 100 yards in from Week Four to Week Ten. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (462) minus the point(s) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (461). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) comes off a 7-9 campaign which was still good enough to win the NFC East before giving Tampa Bay a competitive contest in a 31-23 loss in an NFC Wildcard playoff matchup last January. Los Angeles (0-0) won their last four games of the season to conclude a 7-9 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Chargers opened as a small favorite in this game before the line moved to see Washington a small favorite as of this writing. I do not like this spot for Los Angeles. It is always an extra challenge for west coast teams to travel east to play in a 1 PM ET game with the body clocks thinking it is 10 AM. The Chargers sacked head coach Anthony Lynn for not winning enough close games in his four-year tenure — despite his team winning three games by just three points in their closing four-game winning streak. 38-year-old Brandon Staley is the new head coach after serving as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams last season. First-year head coaches have a spotty record in their opening games in the league — they are 1-12-1 straight-up, an ominous number given the point spread in this contest. I am more optimistic long-term about this team than I am for this contest. The defense is going to take a step back given a system change and a loss of talent. Melvin Ingram and Denzel Perryman must be replaced in the front seven and the secondary replaces Casey Hayward and Rayshawn Jenkins. The Chargers are banking on injured players like Joey Bosa and Derwin James to immediately return to form. But Staley’s defensive system is much different than previous defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s schemes. Staley’s success with the Rams came from an aggressive man defense with two high safeties — but we will see if having Aaron Donald controlling the line of scrimmage was essential for that system to thrive. The run defense ranked 26th in the league in Football Outsiders DVOA metric — and it might get worse this season with the system change. Staley embraced the new-school philosophy of Sean McVay to not play starters in the preseason games — so the best reps his team got to implement his packages were in joint practices. The offensive line breaks in four new starters which is a terrifying thought against this Washington defensive line. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert was great in his rookie campaign — but he is not likely to make a big leap this season since his first year was so good. The analytics suggest his next growth spurt in development will occur in his third season. The data also indicates that he is likely to see regression in how he handles pass-rush pressure and in third-down efficiency. Top running back Austin Ekeler is questionable to play with a hamstring. Staley inherits a team that is just 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games in September. The Chargers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Washington may still be underappreciated for their losing record last year despite overcoming a 1-5 start. They gave the Buccaneers one of the most difficult games in their Super Bowl run. They should be even better in the second year of the Ron Rivera regime. The Football Team’s defense is ferocious with four former first-round draft picks anchoring the front four. With Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat, coordinator Jack Del Rio can generate a pass rush without blitzing — allowing him to have more players in pass coverage. Washington rushed only four defenders 68% of the time last season — a simple but devastating formula for success if it still pressures the opposing QB. The Football Team allowed only 1.69 points per drive last season — the third-lowest mark in the league. The unit added linebacker Jamin Davis in the first round of the NFL draft and cornerback William Jackson from Cincinnati who possesses elite cover skills. The defense did not allow more than 20 points in their final seven regular-season games. On offense, I like the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The veteran has a reputation for being loose with the football — but he has usually played for bad teams. This is the best defense the former Harvard quarterback has played with. He will operate a sophisticated offensive under coordinator Scott Turner that emphasized getting rid of the football quickly into the hands of speedy playmakers. There is depth on the offensive line and at wide receiver. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on their home field.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Football Team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in expected close games listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Washington Football Team (462) minus the point(s) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (370) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (369). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (1-0) opened their season with a 40-21 victory against Central Arkansas as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. Memphis (1-0) comes off a 42-17 win against Nicholls State last Saturday as a 22.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: So far, so good for the new Butch Jones era. The former head coach at Central Michigan, Cincinnati, and Tennessee has a career 84-54 record before serving as an offensive analyst at Alabama the last two seasons. Jones’ era in Knoxville failed (it is a tough job) — but he is a gifted offensive mind who had success everywhere else before failing in the SEC (but still be given the Nick Saban blessing). Jones brought in a bunch of transfers to inject the program with talent. One of the high-profile transfers was former Florida State quarterback James Blackman who completed 16 of 26 passes for 169 yards last week. Layne Hatcher is still with the program after being in a timeshare with Logan Bonner. Bonner transferred to Utah State to stay with former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who took that head coaching job, but it looks like the time-share will continue. Bonner did his part last week — he completed all 12 of his passes for 150 yards and four touchdown passes. The Red Wolves generated 515 total yards last week. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home. Additionally, the Red Wolves have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in September. Furthermore, Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Memphis dominated an FCS opponent last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Memphis has sixteen starters back from the team that finished 8-3 after beating FAU in the Montgomery Bowl by a 25-10 score. Head coach Ryan Silverfield was counting on Arizona transfer Grant Gunnell as his starting quarterback but a leg injury has him out. True freshman Seth Henigan gets the start after completing 19 of 32 passes for 265 yards as the starter last week. Playing at home against an FCS opponent is one thing, playing on the road against an FBS in your first career collegiate start on the road is quite another. As it is, Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers may have issues in pressuring the quarterback after getting only one sack and only two quarterback hurries against Nicholls State last week. Arkansas State will have revenge on their mind after losing at Memphis last season by a 37-23 score as an 18.5-point underdog. While rotating quarterbacks may not be a good formula to win National Championships, it is disruptive to the opposing defenses which help underdogs cover. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points for some insurance) Special with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (370) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (350) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (349). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (1-0) comes off a 16-10 win against Northern Iowa as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (1-0) smothered Indiana last week by a 34-6 score as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Money is pouring in on the Hawkeyes after Iowa State did not look particularly impressive last week against an FCS program. The close score did not bother me at all. The Cyclones were slowed down by a -2 net turnover margin. It is not uncommon for the Panthers to play Iowa and Iowa State tough when they get their opportunities to play the two biggest schools in the state. Additionally, head coach Matt Campbell tends to see his teams start slow in September — he saves many of his best schemes for Big 12 play. But after his team reached the Big 12 Championship Game last year, the Cyclones are a legitimate playoff contender — so I expect Campbell to unleash their “A-Game” for this nationally televised showdown. Campbell has 20 starters back from his team that finished 9-3 last season after beating Oregon, 34-17, in the Fiesta Bowl — and they had an 8-1 mark in the Big 12. They outgained Big 12 opponents by +112 net Yards-Per-Game. Iowa State should play very well in this game. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after playing a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. The Cyclones debunk the stereotype that Big 12 teams do not play defense as they ranked 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 340.4 total YPG. They have an underrated defensive coordinator in Jon Heacock — and he is an expert at making adjustments. Iowa State only allowed 16 combined points in the second half of their last five games. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 17 points in their last game. The offense has all 11 starters back from a unit that scored 32.9 PPG last year — the second-highest mark in school history. The Cyclones scored at least 30 points eight times. Brock Purdy is a senior three-year starter who was the first-team All-Big 12 quarterback last season. Breece Hall is a returning All-American running back who averaged 146 yards from scrimmage per game. Charlie Kolar is a returning All-American tight end. the offensive line returns all five starters from a unit that was one of the 11 semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award for the nation’s best offensive line — and they get back their best offensive lineman in guard Trevor Downing who was injured last year. This team is loaded - and there is NFL talent on both sides of the ball. Campbell has led his team to nine victories against ranked opponents since 2017 — tied for the third-most in the nation. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Iowa has won seven straight games going back to last season when they rallied from an 0-2 start. Fourteen starters are back — but they lost some critical pieces on their defense. Defensive tackle Daviyon Dixon, defensive end Chauncey Golston, and linebacker Nick Niemann all moved on to the NFL. The Hawkeyes lack elite talent so these losses hurt. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s program is consistent because of their player development that gets the most out of their recruits — but the Hawkeyes took a big hit when he dismissed their outstanding strength and conditioning coach Chris Doyle for his history of making racist comments. Ferentz looked the other way for years — and there is a reason that Urban Meyer hired him for the same position with Jacksonville before finally relenting to the outside pressure. Iowa develops a great defense because of their physical development — it will be difficult to simply mimic his practices. Junior quarterback Spencer Petras improved as the season went on last year — but he only completed 59% of his passes while averaging 176 passing YPG during their six-game winning streak. Petras completed only 13 of 27 passes for 145 yards last week against the Indiana defense with his accuracy issues remaining a problem. Iowa State has a definitive edge at quarterback. The Hawkeyes will want to run the football with junior All-Big Ten honoree Tyler Goodson — but their offensive line is a question with three new starters including both tackles. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is a huge game for Iowa State who has lost their last five rivalry games against Iowa. This group did not get the opportunity to avenge an 18-17 loss to Iowa in Iowa City two years ago. Campbell has not coached his team to a victory against the Hawkeyes in four tries. The home team has covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Iowa State has the talent and motivation edge — they should put up too many points for this Iowa team to keep up. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (350) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (349). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (345) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (346). THE SITUATION: Cal (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 22-17 upset loss to Nevada last Saturday as a 3-point favorite. TCU (1-0) comes off a 45-3 thrashing of Duquesne last week as a 42-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal jumped out to a 13-point lead before going away from their rushing attack that was finding success. Red Zone problems played a role as well — but coaches often find they see the biggest jump in execution from the first to the second game of the season. The Golden Bears are not always reliable favorites — but they have consistently overachieved under head coach Justin Wilcox when getting the points. Cal has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games as an underdog with twelve upset wins. They have pulled off seven upsets over that span when getting more than a touchdown. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as a dog since 2019 with six outright wins. Wilcox has seventeen starters back from the team that finished a disappointing 1-3. They have a third-year starting quarterback in Chase Garbers. Cal has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. TCU took care of business against their FCS opponent last week — but they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Horned Frogs have eighteen starters back from their 6-4 campaign last year. But TCU has not been a reliable favorite when played at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Horned Frogs are just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games when getting 10.5 to 14 points. 10* CFB Cal-TCU ESPNU Special with the California Golden Bears (345) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (346). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (451). THE SITUATION: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) won the Super Bowl on their home field at Raymond James Stadium — and their first game defending that championship will be in the same building tonight. Dallas (0-0) comes off a 6-10 season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has all 22 starters back from last year’s Super Bowl team (although Whitehead is out). After their bye week in Week Twelve, Tom Brady sat down with head coach Bruce Arians to tinker with the offensive game-planning to incorporate more of the concepts that Brady thrived in when playing in New England: more play-action pass, more pre-snap motion, and a bigger commitment to running the football earlier in the game. In their last eight games including their four playoff contests, the Buccaneers scored 33.9 PPG while reaching the 30-point threshold seven times. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season.

FINAL TALE: Dallas will likely be without right guard Zach Martin who is on their COVID list — and that does not help their cause against the outstanding Buccaneers’ pass rush. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents — and Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC foes. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) comes of a 6-10 campaign last season. Tampa Bay (0-0) won their final eight games last season culminating in their 31-23 win over Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys get Dak Prescott back on the field to begin the regular season after he missed the final eleven games of the year last year after he fractured his right ankle. Prescott had a shoulder issue in the preseason that kept him from playing in the preseason, but the reports are that he has looked good in practice this week after resting his arm for the last few weeks. Prescott was on a record-setting pace in generating passing yards last year before the injury — he had passed for 1856 yards in five games. Dallas was scoring over 33 Points-Per-Game and generating more than 490 Yards-Per-Game in Prescott’s five games before his season-ending injury. He might have the best wide receiver corps in the NFL with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Cee Dee Lamb who may be on the verge of a breakout season. Prescott will be passing against a Buccaneers’ secondary that will be without starting strong safety Jordan Whitehead who is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Tampa Bay defense was great in the playoffs last year — but pass defense was their biggest vulnerability. They ranked 21st in the NFL by allowing 244.6 passing YPG. Dallas will likely be without their star right guard Zack Martin who is in COVID quarantine — but right tackle La’el Collins is expected to play after dealing with a stinger injury. Conner McGovern is a quality backup who will take Martin’s spot if he tests positive on game day. Martin’s absence hurts — but the loss takes more away from the run game than the passing attack. The Cowboys will likely be relying on their passing game given the state of the defense that first-year defensive coordinator Dan Quinn inherited. They allowed 29.6 PPG last season. Dallas has played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when the Total set in at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 8 games in the opening month of the season, Dallas has played 5 of these games Over the Total. Tampa Bay has all 22 starters back from last year’s Super Bowl team (although Whitehead is out). After their bye week in Week Twelve, Tom Brady sat down with head coach Bruce Arians to tinker with the offensive game-planning to incorporate more of the concepts that Brady thrived in when playing in New England: more play-action pass, more pre-snap motion, and a bigger commitment to running the football earlier in the game. In their last eight games including their four playoff contests, the Buccaneers scored 33.9 PPG while reaching the 30-point threshold seven times. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Buccaneers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season Over the Total. And in their last 10 appearances on Thursday Night Football. Tampa Bay has played 7 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC — and Tampa Bay has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total against conference opponents. The Buccaneers should score at least 30 points and the Cowboys should score at least 20 points playing catchup trying to stay within single digits. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (225) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (226). THE SITUATION: Louisville (0-0) returns thirteen starters from their team that finished 4-7 last season. Mississippi (0-0) has seventeen starters back from the team that completed their 5-5 campaign with a 26-20 victory over Indiana in the Outback Bowl. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville overachieved in their first season under head coach Scott Satterfield — but they underachieved last year by settling with a 4-7 record. The Cardinals outgained their opponents in yardage in nine of their eleven games — but turnovers often neutralized that edge. Louisville had their offensive possessions end in a turnover 18.2% of the time, the sixth-worst mark in the FBS. With 24 turnovers, the Cardinals had a -12 net turnover margin that overwhelmed their +75 net YPG clip. Louisville appears to be moving in the right direction on the field under Satterfield. They got in seven of their fourteen spring practices last year before COVID shut things down — but a full offseason should help the coaching staff address this problem. Junior quarterback Malik Cunningham was the main culprit — he threw 12 interceptions and lost another three fumbles. A year of maturity should help. He will be playing behind the best Cardinals’ offensive line in years with four starters back and another four with starting experience including a transfer from Virginia Tech. The defense has improved under Satterfield as well — Louisville ranked 39th in the nation by holding their opponents to 369.1 total YPG. Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. His teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral field going back to his time at Appalachian State. Mississippi has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the first month of the season — and Lane Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of his team’s last 16 games played in the first two weeks of the season. Kiffin had an immediate impact on the offense last season in his first year with the program — but that success may have raised expectations too high for bettors this season. It is just not likely that this team will average 555.5 total YPG again — third-best in the FBS. I don’t like the circumstances regarding Kiffin dismissing his offensive line coach days after spring practice ended. And Kiffin will not be on the sidelines tonight after testing positive for COVID. I don’t think his absence hurts the offense much — but he is a great play-caller, so there will be key moments in the game when the team needs a big play where they will not have insight. The Rebels’ defense is the real concern after they allowed 38.3 PPG and 519.0 total YPG last year — ranking 117th and 126th in the FBS. The unit lacks the size and grit in their front seven after years of a recruiting decline at the position when the program imploded under head coach Hugh Freeze. Senior linebacker Jacquez Jones’ late spring decision to transfer to Kentucky does not help the situation. Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in expected high-scoring shootouts where the Total was set at 70 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Louisville has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents — and Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games against non-conference opponents. 10* CFB Louisville-Mississippi ESPN Special with the Louisville Cardinals (225) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (223) and the Florida State Seminoles (224). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns eight starters from the team that finished 10-2 after losing to Alabama by a 31-14 score in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. Florida State (0-0) has fourteen starters back from the group that finished 3-6 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Brian Kelly has settled into a reliable formula to get the most out of his talent in South Bend. Kelly has overseen some elite defenses coached by the best young defensive minds in college football while operating a ball-control run-first offense that limits mistakes and burns time off the clock. With only three starters back on offense and starting over with the offensive line with just one starter back, Kelly is likely to be happy to grind out games early in the season — especially when he thinks he has an edge in talent. If there was any doubt about this approach, it should have been rescinded when he brought in senior graduate transfer Jack Coan. The former Wisconsin quarterback was the epitome of the game-manager when playing for the Badgers. He completed nearly 70% of his passes in 2019, the year he led Wisconsin to ten wins and the Rose Bowl. But he is not about to air out for the Irish — and, even if Kelly had a change of personality, Notre Dame does not have the established talent at wide receiver to embrace that strategy in the opening game of the season. Notre Dame has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the first two games of the season. Kelly lost his star defensive coordinator, Clark Lea, who took the head coaching job at Vanderbilt. But Kelly might have poached the best defensive coordinator in the country at a Group of Five program when inked Cincinnati’s Marcus Freeman to take over the Notre Dame defense. Freeman has an All-American he can rely on his secondary in junior free safety Kyle Hamilton. The defensive front for the Irish should be stout again with two returning starters and two blue-chippers being promoted to a unit that was sixth in the FBS last year by generating a tackle-for-loss at a 12.1% rate last season. Notre Dame was 14th in the nation by allowing 19.7 PPG. With six starters back and young talent ready to take on new roles, it will be difficult for this Seminoles team to top that number. The Irish offense is not likely to match their 33.4 PPG scoring average from last year — especially when playing on the road. Notre Dame has played a decisive 37 of their last 57 games Under the Total against ACC opponents — including four of their last five games from last season in their dalliance with the conference as a one-time member given the pandemic. Florida State should be much better on defense after a full set of practices in the spring and fall under head coach Mike Norvell in his second year with the program. Norvell and defensive coordinator Adam Fuller only had three spring practices with their new team last year. Fuller did a fine job of improving the defense at Memphis when Norvell hired him for that job the prior season. The Seminoles allowed 36.0 Points-Per-Game which was the most in school history. Seven starters are back — and Norvell brought in five impact transfers including Georgia defensive end Jermaine Johnson and South Carolina nickel back Jammie Robinson. Florida State was also hit hard by COVID throughout the season before injuries, transfers, and opt-outs compounded the problem. Some teams just need a mulligan from last year — and Norvell’s Seminoles is likely one of them. His teams have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season. He is not naming his starting quarterback until tonight — but he is likely to use both McKenzie Milton and Jordan Travis. Milton is the former Central Florida quarterback who suffered a devastating knee injury. Travis was one of the four quarterbacks Norvell used last season. Both have upside — but this offense will be a work-in-progress still.

FINAL TAKE: The Seminoles have played 4 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total when an underdog getting up to seven points. Expect a lower-scoring game between these two teams. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Florida State ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (223) and the Florida State Seminoles (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (207). THE SITUATION: Clemson (0-0) returns 14 starters from the team that finished 10-2 after a 49-28 loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. Georgia (0-0) has 13 starters back from their 8-2 campaign last year which ended with them beating Cincinnati by a 24-21 score in the Peach Bowl. This game will be played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia recruits like a National Championship team. In terms of core talent, the Bulldogs rosters compare with Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State in the Kirby Smart era. Yet this program cannot yet get over the hump — and that nagging insecurity will not help them in this opening heavyweight fight. Smart realized that he needed to evolve his offense — so he brought in offensive coordinator Todd Monken who was able to match his schemes with quarterback J.T. Daniels when the former USC transfer took over under center. What took so long to make that change from Stetson Bennett? The losses to Florida and Alabama? Daniels is a former 5-star recruit — but he was losing favor with the Trojans even before his knee injury that kept him out a year. He is lacking weapons for this showdown. His favorite target last year was George Pickens who caught 23 balls for 373 yards after Daniels assumed the starting QB duties. Pickens suffered a torn ACL in the spring. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent at wide receiver — but the group is young and the cohesion with Daniels is not as developed. Georgia has a great tight ends room with sophomore Darnell Washington and LSU transfer Arik Gilbert — but both players are out for this game. Ouch. The defense has elite talent — and they think they can simply reload once again despite losing six players to the NFL. But while the total defense of allowing 321.0 total YPG ranked 12th in the FBS, the more sophisticated Expected Points Allowed per Play metric drops them to 27th in the nation. A hidden flaw that may speak to defensive coordinator Dan Lanning’s schemes relates to the Red Zone performance. Georgia allowed 14 touchdowns and seven field goals in the 22 Red Zone trips their opponents made — that 95.5% scoring rate was 124th in the nation. The Bulldogs lost their top four cornerbacks, with two going to the NFL and one transferring. In theory, there is great freshman talent — and Smart is aggressive in the transfer market by bringing in former Clemson cornerback Darion Kendrick and West Virginia nickel back Tykee Smith. Are any of these players lockdown corners? The Bulldogs would have been better served with this showdown occurring later in the season. I have more faith in Clemson’s reload — six straight appearances in the playoffs will do that (with two National Championships). Sophomore quarterback D.J. Uiagalelelei is proven with two starts last season against Boston College and Notre Dame where he completed 78 of 117 passes for 914 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. He threw for 438 yards on the road at night in South Bend against a good Fighting Irish defense. And both those games were tight (including a double-overtime loss to the Irish) — so he has experience playing under pressure in tight games. Clemson missed wide receiver Justyn Ross who missed last season with an injury — but he appears ready to return to the field tonight to challenge the Bulldogs’ secondary. He is a likely future first-round pick in the NFL draft. The Tigers defense has something to prove after getting burned for 639 yards by the Buckeyes — but led by perhaps the best defensive front in the nation, this may be their most talented defense since their 2018 National Championship team.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field when the Total is in the 49.5 to 56 range. Now they play at a familiar field for Clemson where they have won the ACC Championship Game the last four seasons. The Tigers have covered the point spread in all 6 games under Dabo Swinney on a neutral field with the Total in that 49.5 to 56 range. And Clemson has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 postseason games consisting of conference championship games, playoff games, and bowl games — and while this contest does not fit that template, it speaks to how Swinney gets his team prepared for big games. 20* CFB Georgia-Clemson ABC-TV Special with the Clemson Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (165) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (166). THE SITUATION: Penn State (0-0) returns 16 starters from the team that finished 4-5 last season. Wisconsin (0-0) has 17 starters back from their team that finished 4-3 after a 42-28 win against Wake Forest in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State started 0-5 last season in a snake-bitten start of bad luck involving injuries, turnovers, and COVID complications. When their star linebacker Micah Parsons opted-out of the season, the team was left without their best player. Indiana upset them at home in overtime in the opening game of the season as a 6-point dog despite being outgained by +277 net yards. Penn State had Ohio State next who they were competitive against in a 38-25 loss as a 10-point dog. The season was lost after two games — and they were flat in a 35-19 upset loss to Maryland where they were laying 27 points. They then got upset at Nebraska by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite despite outgaining the Cornhuskers by 203 yards. Wounded with an 0-4 record, they then hosted Iowa where they lost by a 41-21 score. But give James Franklin credit for rallying this team after this disastrous 0-5 start. They upset Michigan on the road in a battle of bruised blue bloods which began their four-game winning streak to end the season. There are definitely problems — and the lack of spring practice hampered Franklin’s hiring of Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca. A lack of explosiveness on offense was one of the reasons that Franklin did not retain Ciarocca (now the head coach of West Virginia). Franklin tapped Texas offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich as his new OC. Turnovers played a big role as the Nittany Lions lost eight of their ten fumbles on offense en route to 17 turnovers. Junior quarterback Sean Clifford probably tried to do too much early as well — but after throwing eight interceptions in his first five games, he had only one interception in his last four games with five touchdown passes. The Penn State defense also held their last five opponents to just 17.3 PPG. Overall, the Nittany Lions may have allowed 27.7 PPG (with turnovers hurting the cause) — but they ranked 17th in the nation by giving up just 328.8 total YPG. They have one of the most underrated defensive coordinators in the business in Brent Pry. Nine starters return on offense including a third-year starter in Clifford. This is a team that outgained their opponents by +102 net YPG. Penn State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in September. Wisconsin was also hit hard by COVID — so perhaps that explains why they scored in single-digits in three straight games midway through the year. But don’t read too much into their 42-28 closing win against Wake Forest in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl since they got outgained by a 577 to 266 yardage margin. Sophomore quarterback Graham Mertz returned from his positive COVID test (and not getting to play Illinois again) by completing only 56.9% of his passes with four touchdown passes and five interceptions in his last six games. Perhaps it was just a nagging shoulder injury for the highly touted phenom? The running backs averaged only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry amidst speculation that the typical stout Badgers’ offensive line has taken a step back in talent. Wisconsin started fast amidst a favorable schedule in 2019 — but they gave up 26 PPG in their final eight games before they could grab on COVID excuses last year. The data says they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against Big Ten opponents — and Penn State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against conference opponents. While both these teams have much to prove in this game. the Nittany Lions still recruit better than the Badgers. Expect a close game where getting the points offers much value. 20* CFB Penn State-Wisconsin Fox-TV Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (165) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (166). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (0-0) returns eight starters from the team that finished 7-2 last season with a 35-19 win over Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. Michigan State (0-0) has 16 starters back from their team that finished 2-5.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, bettors appear to be undervaluing the program that head coach Pat Fitzgerald has built in Evanston. In his sixteenth year with the program, Fitzgerald led a Wildcats team to finish in the top 25 for the fourth time since 2015 last year after playing for the Big Ten Championship where they lost to Ohio State by a 22-10 score. Now this program is laying only a field goal to a rebuilding Michigan State team? Fitzgerald can make the argument that he has assembled a coaching staff that gets the most out of their talent in the conference (and the nation?). And this new era of the transfer portal helps a program like Northwestern that cannot hang with the blue bloods in attracting blue-chippers — but now becomes attractive for the talent who needs the spotlight with a starting assignment with a coaching staff that just sent saw two players drafted in the first round in the NFL draft. The Wildcats’ defense has always been fundamentally sound under Fitzgerald — and they were 5th in the nation last year by allowing only 15.9 PPG. This year’s defense is as athletic as any of the units in the Fitzgerald tenure — and the defensive line may be the best yet in his sixteen years. They bring back defensive end Samdup Miller who opted out last year. Safety Brandon Joseph is an All-American — and they have a breakout star in cornerback Cameron Mitchell. A Northwestern program may have been in a better position to navigate COVID-ball last year — but a full offseason can only help a program that thrives when they can coach up their players. Fitzgerald brought in former South Carolina Ryan Hilinski to compete for the starting QB job. The fact that fifth-year senior Hunter Johnson has been named the starting QB suggests to me that the veteran has earned the spot. Johnson is a former five-star recruit that transferred to the program from Clemson — and while he has yet to achieve his vast potential, he has now been under Fitzgerald’s mentorship for three years (including a pandemic). This is a team that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they are a dominant 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games in conference play under Fitzgerald. I am optimistic about what Michigan State can do under second-year head coach Mel Tucker. I like the direction — but I think the betting market is mistaking long-term optimism with short-term rationality. Sparty has endured a decline in talent for years under the bloat of Mike Dantonio for years — especially on the offensive line. The recruiting war arms race in the Big Ten East with Michigan and Penn State investing furiously to try to catch up to Ohio State left Sparty far behind while Dantonio preached an outdated model while fueling all his attentions on his in-state rival. The paradigm where Michigan State played Alabama in the BCS college football playoff in 2016 has long since been transformed. It will take longer than a year for Tucker to rebuild this program. He is trying to ride transfer roulette wheel for this year — and he may have improved the program he inherited. More than 20 players left the program in the offseason but he brought in more than 20. Whoo-hoo! I mean, guys aren’t leaving starting jobs at elite programs. The Michigan State defense has declined — they allowed 35.1 PPG last year (100th FBS and the worst mark in program history) and lost the best player on all three levels. I think second-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton is great who will benefit from a full year of teaching — but he can only do so much. The talent on offense may not yet fit the scheme of second year offensive coordinator Jay Johnson who brought 21st century principles with him when he came over with Tucker from Colorado. The rushing attack has ranked 122nd, 113th, and 114th in the nation in the last three seasons. Tucker brought in Temple QB Anthony Russo as a graduate transfer — but he agrees with all of us in wondering if that was an upgrade over sophomore Payton Thorne who made one start last year. Tucker has yet to name a starter as of my last deep dive — but it doesn’t matter, let him start the turnover machine from Temple. Or not. There is simply a talent deficit still between these two teams. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in Big Ten play.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake is that Northwestern will be motivated to avenge a 29-20 upset loss in East Lansing against Sparty as a 13.5-point favorite. The Wildcats fell behind by a 17-0 score before scoring 20 unanswered points — but turnovers in the fourth quarter led to their 9-point loss. The grind of the Big Ten — where emotions at home can play a big role. Northwestern has that emotional edge this time around — something that Fitzgerald has been pounding into his team since August practices started. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). THE SITUATION: Boise State (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that finished 5-2 after a 34-20 loss to San Jose State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Central Florida (0-0) has 17 starters back from their team that ended the season with a 6-4 record after a 49-23 loss to BYU in the Boca Raton Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State is under new management after Bryan Harsin took the head coaching job at Boise State. The Broncos hired a former player and defensive coordinator in Andy Avalos to rework their defense that allowed 27.1 PPG last season. Those were the most points that Boise State surrendered since 1998. Avalos was previously the defensive coordinator at Oregon. He should improve a defense that allowed at least 30 points in four of their seven games last year. It was a lost season for the Broncos that started on the wrong foot when COVID led to them canceling their entire spring practice schedule. The team was hit hard by COVID and injuries during the regular season with both their highly-touted quarterbacks, Hank Bachmeier and Jack Sears, missing time. Sears, a former USC transfer, only played one game. Bachmeier started four games last season including the end of the season despite not being 100%. He has been tabbed the starter for this game. He displayed a big upside in his freshman season as one of the biggest recruits in the history of the program by averaging 8.6 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. He has two returning starters at wide receiver in seniors Khalil Shakir and C.T. Thomas who have combined for 248 receptions and 24 touchdown catches in their career. The Boise State offense has a new offensive coordinator in Tim Plough who brings his Air Raid attack to Boise from UC-Davis. In his time as the Aggies' offensive coordinator, they averaged just 23 seconds between plays — so except a very fast pace. The Broncos should carve up a suspect Knights pass defense that was 110th in the nation last year by allowing 8.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Central Florida’s best defensive back last season was free safety Richie Grant who was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. The Knights will miss the three-time All-Conference player. Boise State opted out from playing in a bowl game — so this nationally televised game is important for them to re-establish themselves on the national stage. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 range. Central Florida also has a new coach in Gus Malzahn — the guy that Boise State’s previous coach is replacing at Auburn. He replaces Josh Heupel who took the Tennessee head coaching job. While the Knights bring back 17 starters, they lost talent on both sides of the ball to the NFL — and this is not a program that simply reloads. UCF lost their top two running backs in Greg McRae and Otis Anderson and their leading receiver in Marlon Williams who had five 100-yards receiving games last year. Expectations are high for the Knights with junior Dillon Gabriel under center — but he is adjusted to the new Malzahn system on offense. It is the Knights’ defense that will likely be their downfall in this game. They allowed their opponents to average +86 YPG above their season average last year — 123rd in the nation. They allowed at least 30 points six times. UCF benefited from a +12 net turnover margin last year that made up for their defense that allowed 491.8 total YPG (123rd in the FBS). The Knights cannot rely on having the fifth-best net turnover margin once again this season. This shapes up to be a shootout — but that usually does not bode well for this football team. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with the Total at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games when an underdog getting up to 7 points. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (146) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (145). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) returns 20 starters from a team that finished 3-4 last season. Ohio State (0-0) has 11 starters back from their group that lost to Alabama in the National Championship Game by a 52-24 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations have been raised for this program under head coach P.J. Fleck after their 11-2 campaign in 2019 that concluded a victory against Auburn in the Outback Bowl. The team was likely going to take a step back last year given the loss of five of their top six tacklers on defense and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca to Penn State. But this program was given no favors when the pandemic hit. The team kept fighting and ended the season playing good football — they took Wisconsin to overtime in their last game before losing by a 20-17 score. Now with a full offseason again and more time to learn second-year offensive coordinator Mike Sanford’s schemes, Minnesota should be very confident tonight as they begin the fifth season under Fleck. His teams at Minnesota and Western Michigan have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in September. He has a senior quarterback in Tanner Morgan who is a four-year starter. They have the reigning Big Ten Running Back of the Year in Mohamad Ibrahim. They have three returning starters at wide receiver in a unit blessed with speed — and senior Chris Autman-Bell is a game-time decision from the latest reports after he suffered a leg injury in camp last month. The Gophers have four starters back on an offensive line that is big, deep, and experienced — and they get right tackle Daniel Faalele and his 6’9, 400-lb frame after he opted out last season. The defense played better in the second half of the season — they held their last five opponents to just 23.4 PPG. Ten starters return — and they brought in one of the most impactful grad transfers in defensive tackle Nyles Pinckney who was the captain of the Clemson defense. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Big Ten opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Ohio State usually does not schedule as strong as an opponent as this in their opening game. They especially do not schedule road games in conference play as their opening game. While the Buckeyes are loaded with talent, they have ten new starters including redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud. Remember, Ohio State did not play in front of hostile crowds against Big Ten foes last year given conference restrictions on attendance. They lost ten players who were drafted into the NFL. With a showdown with Oregon next week, the Buckeyes just need to survive this game. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The weather influenced my decision to sign off on this play today — there is a 50% chance for rain in Minneapolis tonight at Huntington Bank Stadium. Rain creates chaos — and I don’t like road favorites amidst chaos playing at night in a hostile environment. I especially do not like chaos with a freshman quarterback making his first career start under expectations that he is supposed to lead his team to a national championship. As it is, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Minneapolis to play the Golden Gophers. 10* CFB Ohio State-Minnesota Fox-TV Special with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (146) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (301) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (302). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) returns 18 starters from the team that finished 5-4 last year after a 28-14 win against Houston in the New Mexico Bowl. UCLA (0-0) comes off a 3-4 campaign in the third year under head coach Chip Kelly.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: There seems to be more excitement about what the Bruins may finally accomplish in the fourth year under Kelly nationally than there is in Los Angeles where the Rose Bowl will not offer a strong home-field edge. The biggest problem with this UCLA team starts with Kelly’s stubbornness to continue to employ his buddy Jerry Azzinaro as his defensive coordinator. Entering last season, Azzinaro had overseen six straight college defenses that ranked 113th, 102nd, 100th, 89th, 105th, and 110th in total defense. Some might say that the Azzinaro-way finally started to demonstrate itself last year when the Bruins “improved to 69th in the nation by holding their opponents to 409.9 total YPG. Unfortunately, that number may have more to do with playing opponents slow to get up to speed on offense in a pandemic. UCLA allows 482 YPG in their final three games against Arizona State, USC, and Stanford — not exactly an endorsement of coaching improvements out of one’s players. The UCLA defense also lost their best player in defensive end Osa Odighizuwa who got drafted by Dallas. Kelly’s recruiting classes have catered amidst losing seasons — and he has lost talent from the loosened transfer rules. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the returning starter at quarterback — but he has failed to meet the expectations of operating the Chip Kelly dual-threat offense. Pro Football Focus graded four of his five starts last year below 57.0 (which is bad). Injuries have held him back — but when he has been the starter in his career, the Bruins’ pass attack ranks second-to-last in the Pac-12 on efficiency. Kelly’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the opening two weeks of the season. UCLA has not covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 non-conference games with Kelly as their head coach. And in Kelly’s last 22 home games as a head coach with his team playing at home with the Total set at 63 or higher, his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those games. Hawai’i deployed a new up-tempo attack against Houston in their bowl game to success that will carry over into this season. Say what you want about head coach Todd Graham after his tenure at Arizona State — but the dude can coach up football teams as he owns a 100-65 overall record with 11 bowl appearances in his 12 seasons coaching at Rice, Tulsa, and Pittsburgh before the Sun Devils and Rainbow Warriors. Graham has tightened the ship by making things a family affair with him placing his eldest son, Bo, as offensive coordinator while he takes over the defensive coordinating duties. Graham brought in six Division-I transfers to a defense that returns 11 starters. The defense will be better. The offense brings back fourth-year QB Chevan Cordeiro who threw for over 2000 yards and ran for more than 480 yards in nine games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games in the first two weeks of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in August. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in non-conference play — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Graham’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. UCLA has a big game with LSU on deck, which may compel Kelly to call off the dogs if they are winning easily — so a back door cover is alive in this one. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (301) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that settled for a 3-5 record in a COVID-shortened season last year. Illinois (0-0) begins the Bret Bielema head coaching era after Lovie Smith was sacked before the final game of the 2020 season where they finished 2-6.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS MINUS THE POINTS: If fourth-year head coach Scott Frost was not on the hot seat after posting a 12-20 record in his first three seasons at his alma mater in Lincoln, the NCAA violations issued against the football program under his watch certainly raised the stakes this season for Frost with another album as athletic director in Trev Alberts who did not hire him. After four straight losing seasons, Frost must deliver — and the schedule gets tougher in the second half of the season with dates Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This is a must-win situation for the Cornhuskers. Frost has problems — players are transferring and his recruitment has waned. But 17 starters return from a group that outgained their opponents last season by +5 net Yards-Per-Game. Nebraska was just 1-4 in close games decided by one possession. Turning the ball over in 18.95% of their possessions on offense was a killer. Yet there is stability on offense under senior quarterback Adrian Martinez. While the dual-threat QB is not likely to meet the expectations surrounding his early hype, he is a veteran who completed 71.5% of his passes last season while running for another 521 yards with his 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. With a wide receiving corps that is the most talented in the Frost era, this should be a better offensive team. With USC transfer Markese Stepp and a handful of talented freshmen at running back, someone should step up. The defense has 90% of their production return led by five “super seniors” playing in their sixth season. The Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Scott Frost’s teams at Nebraska and Central Florida have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Lovie Smith did not leave the cupboard bare for Bielema at Illinois — in fact, I think Smith was moving this program in the right direction before COVID put a monkey wrench in many coaches' plans last season (especially the ones who are effective teachers who rely on practices). In comes Bielema who bolted from his success at Wisconsin for the money in the SEC where he failed to elevate the Arkansas program. He returns to Big Ten country where he is moving from a spread offense to probably more of a power running game. The defense moves from a 4-3 to a 3-4 — and these system changes on both sides of the ball can see transition problems in these early games. As it is, Bielema’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in the opening two weeks of the season. His quarterback is sixth-year senior Brandon Peters who transferred from Michigan a few years ago when the writing was on the wall that he would not get the starting job after a bad bowl game sealed his fate. The inconsistent QB has averaged only 144.6 passing YPG with the Illini. He led an offense last year that ranked 119th in the FBS in Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt — and the returning wide receiving corps lacks a clear number one option. The Illini defense has finished 12th or worse in total yardage in four of the last five seasons under a former NFL head coach whose defensive acumen propelled the Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl with a defense that carried Rex Grossman at QB. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, previously the coordinator of the Missouri defense the last six seasons, is not an upgrade. Bielema is in a rebuild — so he has time. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home where they do not retain a great home edge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 37 home games as a dog getting up to 7 points. The Illini have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in August.

FINAL TAKE: If the stakes were not high enough for Nebraska, they will have revenge on their mind after getting upset by Illinois last year at home by a 41-23 score as a 16-point underdog on November 21st. Good bulletin board material for Frost in a game Bielema had no connection with. 25* CFB Television Game of the Month is with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City played their best game of the 2020-21 season against the Bills in their two-touchdown victory. That is the Chiefs’ team I expected to show-up in the second half in our 25* play on KC against Cleveland. And we had Patrick Mahomes and company against Buffalo last week — so I do not recommend betting against the reigning champs lightly. I was tickled when hearing the pundits talk about the Chiefs inability to cover point spreads as of late — they went into the AFC Championship Game having only covered the spread once in their previous nine games. As if just winning 15 of 17 games was not impressive enough. Yet it took 45 minutes of great football from the Chiefs (after falling behind 9-0) for the conventional wisdom to dramatically shift to just how invincible they are. The truth is somewhere in the middle. But it remains hard to repeat as a Super Bowl champion — and Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not covering the point spread more than once in their last three games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home — which is usually when the public starts bandwagoning Mahomes again. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsider consider the Buccaneers the best team in the NFL (and before home field advantage). I do take their numbers with a few grains of salt — a bettor will go bankrupt fast relying exclusively on them. But, their analytics provide evidence that the Chiefs are perhaps overvalued in this game. And that is before the injury situation — which I consider severe. I have worried all postseason about KC being without right tackle Mitchell Schwartz who is on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Head coach Andy Reid said that he did not expect Schwartz to be available for the Super Bowl. The Achilles’ injury to Eric Fisher late in the Bills’ game leaves the Chiefs without their starting tackles — and the Buccaneers’ pass rush is ferocious now that have Vita Vea and Shaq Barrett back from injury to join Ndamukong Suh clogging the middle and Jason Pierre-Paul rushing from the outside. I do begin to worry about Mahomes’ left toe a bit when thinking about him missing both tackles — he was better on Sunday but not 100%. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is 7-0 with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG while averaging 34.3 PPG and 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. Home field is also significant — not for the cheering crowd, which doesn’t hurt. The Buccaneers getting to play in a Super Bowl in their comfortable and familiar facilities while sleeping in their own beds is a big deal.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they will be a bit better on February 7th than they were when they last played over two months ago. 25* NFL Super Bowl *A-List* Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City scored 21 points in the second quarter en route to their easy victory over the Bills while demonstrating just how good their offense is when full-engaged. The Chiefs scored 32.1 PPG in their first ten games of the season before going on cruise control a bit which coincided with their 27-24 victory at Tampa Bay on November 29th in Week 12. Kansas City also raced out to a 19-3 halftime lead in their previous game against Cleveland. A fast start for Patrick Mahomes should help ensure this becomes a high-scoring game — they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Since the Chiefs “flipped the switch” in the postseason again, they have averaged 7.06 and 6.97 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in two straight games. Kansas City has also scored 31.6 PPG in their eight games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Chiefs’ defense allowed 363 yards to the Bills — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown (who should be healthy again for the Super Bowl) midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is scoring 34.3 PPG while averaging 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. The Buccaneers have scored at least 30 points in six straight games — win or lose, I suspect they will hit the 30-point threshold for a seventh straight game. And I expect Mahomes to at least be able to keep up since KC will keep their foot on the gas pedal all game — ensuring our Over. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. The Buccaneers defense allowed the Packers to gain 381 yards — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards. Tampa Bay has seen at least 50 points in six straight games — and not only have they played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing four straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Buccaneers have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. Giving head coach Bruce Arian to dial-up plays and a strategy to react to their loss just over two months ago should ensure the Bucs’ score more points this time around — and that should push this rematch above the number. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-2) advanced to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship last Sunday with their 22-17 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite. Buffalo (15-3) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 17-3 win against Baltimore last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the concussion protocol on Friday but there is still the issue of the turf toe in his left foot. He will not be 100% with the pain and discomfort that he will experience — yet I still expect Kansas City to cover point spread expectations. I do think the reigning Super Bowl champions were able to flip a switch once the playoffs started last week. They raced out to a 19-3 lead at halftime (which could have been an even bigger lead if not for missed kicks). This is a good sign for them this week — the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after owning a halftime lead by at least two touchdowns. KC has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. The Chiefs gained 438 yards overall even with Mahomes leaving the game in the third quarter — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Many observers fading Kansas City in this game cite that they have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games. But the Chiefs have coved the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. So much criticism for a team that won fifteen of their seventeen games this season. And they will be playing in Arrowhead Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when laying no more than 7 points. Buffalo has won eight straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning at least four in a row. And after playing their last three games at home, the Bills go back on the road for the first time since December 28th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing at least two straight games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Kansas City to play the Chiefs.

FINAL TAKE: Josh Allen and the Bills have been a great story in the second half of this season — but they face a significant disadvantage in playoff experience. This is all new territory for Allen, head coach Sean McDermott, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll (as an OC), and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. The Chiefs’ Andy Reid has been the head coach in two Super Bowls and eight championship games between his time with Philadelphia and Kansas City. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has won two Super Bowls running the defense for the Chiefs last year and previously with the New York Giants. And then there is the battle between Allen and Mahomes. Kansas City should win this game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-3) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 17-3 win against Baltimore last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas City (15-2) advanced to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship last Sunday with their 22-17 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the concussion protocol on Friday but there is still the issue of the turf toe in his left foot. While Mahomes has said it feels better, this is an injury that needs a few weeks to heal — and numbing drugs can only do so much. Mahomes will not be at 100% — and his mobility will be limited. As it is, Kansas City has transformed into more of a ball-control offense in the second half of the season. In Mahomes’ last five starts (which excludes Week 17) since the Chiefs’ 35-31 win against Las Vegas, they are scoring only 25.5 PPG while not scoring more than 33 points during that stretch. Head coach Andy Reid is letting the clock burn when Mahomes is on the field in what appears to me to be an attempt to keep his defense fresh. This has helped the defense put up better numbers in the second half of the season. Kansas City has held these last six opponents (excluding the Chargers in Week 17 since Mahomes did not play) to 345.7 Yards-Per-Game with five of those opponents not gaining more than 367 yards. While not elite numbers, this approach is leading to lower-scoring games. Cleveland managed only 308 total yards last week against the Chiefs’ defense. The Bills score 30.3 PPG — but Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 29 PPG. And while the Chiefs gained 438 yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Tellingly, Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, there is the issue of the sputtering KC offense in the Red Zone. Since Week 12, the Chiefs possess just the 26th most effective Red Zone offense in scoring touchdowns. This is not a good sign when facing this Bills’ defense that has had the best Red Zone defense since Week 12. These two teams played on October 19th with Kansas City winning by a 26-17 score. Despite the final result, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is likely to consider the defensive game plan a success. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier did not blitz at all in that game. The Bills’ begged Mahomes to hand off the football — and he did 46 times which resulted in 245 rushing yards. Yet KC scored a field goal below their season average. Given their improved Red Zone defense since that game, McDermott is likely to dare Mahomes to hand the ball off again while giving him the short passing game but not letting him burn the defense from the mismatches that ensue from using linebackers as pass rushers. Other defenses began copying this defensive approach which has also played a role in Kansas City’s declining offensive numbers in the second half of the season. This Buffalo defense will healthier in this rematch with linebacker Matt Milano playing in this game amongst others. Getting back to full strength helped the Bills’ defense rank sixth in the NFL since Week Seven using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Buffalo held the Ravens last week to just 340 yards. Yet Buffalo managed only 220 yards on their own while benefiting from their 100-yard interception return for a touchdown — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Bills’ first 20 plays from scrimmage were pass plays for Josh Allen — and that 21st play was a broken pass play that Allen then rushed for positive yardage. Buffalo runs the ball only 30% of the time in their offensive plays in the first half. I expect this playscript to change in this game against the suspect Chiefs’ run defense that ranks as the sixth-worst in the NFL using DVOA. The Bills’ attention to run the ball a bit more will also help them burn time off the clock to limit the offensive possessions Mahomes will enjoy. The Under is 9-2-1 in Buffalo’s last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 30 of their last 42 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and Kansas City has played 4 of the last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311) and the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Tom Brady is operating the Tampa Bay offense at its most optimal level as he has all season. The Buccaneers went into last week averaging 526.7 Yards-Per-Game in their previous three contests — and his offense is scoring 35.0 PPG over their last three games after scoring 30 last week against the stout Saints’ defense. That was the fifth game in a row that Tampa Bay scored at least 30 points. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are scoring 32.5 PPG while averaging 417.1 total YPG. Tampa Bay has played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total as an underdog of 7 points or less. Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight games. The lone exception was when they only scored 24 points in their 8-point win against Carolina on that Saturday game on December 19th — and they have then won their next three games by at least two touchdowns. The Packers have then played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning their last two games by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning their last three games by at least 14 points. Green Bay is scoring 35.7 PPG in these most recent three games while averaging 416.0 total YPG. They stay at home where they are scoring 31.7 PPG at Lambeau Field while averaging 415.4 YPG. The Packers have played 4 straight home games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total in the playoffs. Green Bay has also played 6 straight playoff games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on October 18th with Tampa Bay winning at home by a 38-10 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Both Brady and Rodgers only passed for 166 and 160 yards in that game — but both quarterbacks have overseen adjustments since that game which should help them be more effective in this rematch. The Packers have played 8 straight games Over the Total in January — and Tampa Bay has played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total against fellow NFC rivals. Look for both teams to score at least 25 points in this shootout. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Green Bay Fox-TV O/U Special with Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311) with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311) and the Green Bay Packers (312).. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are playing the best football of their season right now which is just how head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady planned. However, this is a very challenging situation for them to travel up to Lambeau Field under their recent circumstances. They overcame a huge obstacle in upsetting the Saints on the road after they had lost the previous two times against this season by a combined 72-26 score. They also benefited from a +4 net turnover margin on Sunday. They are not likely to be so fortunate against a Packers team that has a +6 net turnover margin this season and that has only turned the ball over 12 times all year. Green Bay has committed only two turnovers in their last seven games — and Aaron Rodgers has just five interceptions all season. Part of head coach Matt LaFleur’s system is to ask Rodgers to do less in the passing game. It is working. And Tampa Bay is now playing their third straight game away from home which adds to the stress and complications of their situation. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games away from home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games this season after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Buccaneers are also surviving high-scoring games with at least 50 combined points scored in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. We had Tampa Bay last week — but did so understanding that the Bucs had a 1-5 record against teams that made the playoffs (during the regular season). Every other team playing in the divisional round had registered at least four victories against teams that made the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s six-game winning streak came against Atlanta (twice), Detroit, Minnesota, and then Washington and New Orleans in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to 7 points. Green Bay will be very comfortable in this situation being led by Rodgers. They dominated the Rams by a 484 to 244 margin in yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. And in their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers will retain a significant home-field edge — not only in not traveling this week and playing in front of a loud crowd (as were the reports last week) even if not at full capacity at Lambeau Field last week. Yet the biggest edge for Green Bay in this game is that they will be very comfortable in playing in the cold weather. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in January — and Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (12-5) advanced from the NFC Wild Card playoffs last Saturday night with their 31-23 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite. New Orleans (13-4) has won three straight games after their 21-9 victory against Chicago last Sunday as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay is playing their best football of the season with five straight victories. They generated 507 yards against a good Washington defense with one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. The Buccaneers have then covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 69 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Buccaneer’s offense hit rock bottom on November 8th in their most recent encounter with the Saints in a 38-3 loss at home as a 3-point underdog. Tampa Bay was simply a mess on offense in that game with Tom Brady making ill-advised deep passes on short third-down situations. The Buccaneers ran the ball a mere five times — making a mockery of the analytics grifters who write articles every couple of years calling for offenses to pass on every down (as if there is not an adequate sample size from the Big 12 conference to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy). That game was also the debut of Antonio Brown with the team with the Bucs seeming to think he was just a “plug-and-play” solution. If there was a silver lining from that humiliation, it was that it forced Brady to get on the same-page Bruce “no risk it, no biscuit” Arians on the offensive philosophy of this team. Slowly, this offense is looking more like the ones he operated in New England — albeit with more deep throws still (but he has the talent to do it with his receiving corps). I expect this game plan to rely plenty on Brady’s assessment regarding how to attack this Saints’ defense he has played twice already — and that has just the 29th ranked Red Zone defense. The Tampa Bay offense enters this game clicking on all cylinders by scoring 40.7 PPG and averaging 527.6 total YPG. Brown has found his niche as one of the weapons at Brady’s disposal. Brady has been more accurate with his deep balls — he is averaging 9.7 Yards-Per-Attempt since their bye in Week 13 which is over 2.0 YPA above what he was averaging before the extra time to self-audit the offense. Granted, Brady’s recent success has been against teams with losing records in Detroit, Atlanta, and Washington (with Minnesota and the Falcons again since the bye week). How much of Brady’s success is legitimate and how much of it was a product of playing the Lions, et al, defenses? The metrics at Football Outsiders say the improvement is legit with the Buccaneers’ weighted DVOA on offense now ranked second in the NFL. Maybe the Tampa Bay offensive problems is as simple as two grizzled veterans in Brady and Arians needing (and using) the regular season to figure out how to mesh philosophies without the benefit of a normal offseason? The Bucs’ defense gets a shot in the arm with linebacker Devin White returning to action after testing positive for COVID. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set at 49.5. They are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread covers as a double-digit underdog. Brees has not looked 100% since his return from his rib injury — the Football Outsiders’ folks have assessed him a negative DVOA game grade in two of his four starts since his return. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Additionally, the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 home games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: While it may not be impossible to defeat a team three times in one season, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from two straight losses to their opponent where they allowed at least 28 points. Tampa Bay has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when averaging a loss at home by at least three touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss at home by at least four touchdowns. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (12-5) advanced from the NFC Wild Card playoffs last Saturday night with their 31-23 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite. New Orleans (13-4) has won three straight games after their 21-9 victory against Chicago last Sunday as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneer’s offense hit rock bottom on November 8th in their most recent encounter with the Saints in a 38-3 loss at home as a 3-point underdog. Tampa Bay was simply a mess on offense in that game with Tom Brady making ill-advised deep passes on short third-down situations. The Buccaneers ran the ball a mere five times — making a mockery of the analytics grifters who write articles every couple of years calling for offenses to pass on every down (as if there is not an adequate sample size from the Big 12 conference to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy). That game was also the debut of Antonio Brown with the team with the Bucs seeming to think he was just a “plug-and-play” solution. If there was a silver lining from that humiliation, it was that it forced Brady to get on the same-page Bruce “no risk it, no biscuit” Arians on the offensive philosophy of this team. Slowly, this offense is looking more like the ones he operated in New England — albeit with more deep throws still (but he has the talent to do it with his receiving corps). I expect this game plan to rely plenty on Brady’s assessment regarding how to attack this Saints’ defense he has played twice already — and that has just the 29th ranked Red Zone defense. The Tampa Bay offense enters this game clicking on all cylinders by scoring 40.7 PPG and averaging 527.6 total YPG. Brown has found his niche as one of the weapons at Brady’s disposal. Brady has been more accurate with his deep balls — he is averaging 9.7 Yards-Per-Attempt since their bye in Week 13 which is over 2.0 YPA above what he was averaging before the extra time to self-audit the offense. Granted, Brady’s recent success has been against teams with losing records in Detroit, Atlanta, and Washington (with Minnesota and the Falcons again since the bye week). How much of Brady’s success is legitimate and how much of it was a product of playing the Lions, et al, defenses? The metrics at Football Outsiders say the improvement is legit with the Buccaneers’ weighted DVOA on offense now ranked second in the NFL. Gaining 507 yards last week against the Football Team was impressive since they have a very good defense — and that effort was encouraging regarding how Brady will handle the pass rush this week since Washington is top-ten in pressure rate. Maybe the Tampa Bay offensive problems is as simple as two grizzled veterans in Brady and Arians needing (and using) the regular season to figure out how to mesh philosophies without the benefit of a normal offseason. The team trends suggest the Bucs will score their share of points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 25 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Buccaneers have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total as an underdog including 6 straight Overs when not getting more than 3 points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in their last three games as a favorite — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight when laying the points. The Saints are going to score their share of points in this game — they average 30.4 PPG at home. Drew Brees is also averaging 35.3 PPG in his last three games while averaging 438.3 YPG and he is getting his weapons like Michael Thomas back for the playoff run. New Orleans has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 7 points. The Saints have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in New Orleans. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (12-5) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 48-37 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5-point underdog. Kansas City (14-2) rested starters with the top seed in the AFC playoffs locked last week in a 38-21 loss to the Los Angels Chargers as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Cleveland generated 390 yards in the win — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But while the Browns raced out to their 28-0 lead in the first quarter benefiting from some Steelers’ turnovers, they ended allowing Pittsburgh to gain 501 yards against them. Cleveland has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 500 yards in their last contest. And while they enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin in that game, the Browns have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +3 or better net turnover margin. Cleveland stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Additionally, the Browns have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Kansas City has played 7 straight home games Over the Total after playing their last game at home at Arrowhead Field. And while the Chiefs have not covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Browns are 6-3 away from home where they score 27.9 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing in January. Even with the Total set in the high-50s, expect a higher scoring game that reaches that plateau. 10* NFL Cleveland-Kansas City CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-2) rested starters with the top seed in the AFC playoffs locked last week in a 38-21 loss to the Los Angels Chargers as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (12-5) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 48-37 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I really liked the situation for the Browns in that playoff game playing with no pressure given all the COVID adversity with the Steelers seeming to dismiss that their AFC North “younger brother” offered any threat with Ben Roethlisberger owning a 13-0 record at home against Cleveland in his career. Well, I “so right” about the Browns that it ruined our bigger play on the Under. With hindsight being 20/20, upgrading the Under play above the Cleveland side play was the sound fundamental play given the evidence at hand. That opening fumble in the end zone that the Brown recovered and then Roethlisberger throwing four interceptions to help Cleveland go into halftime with a 35-10 lead changed the entire dynamic of that game (while forcing the Steelers to abandon the run for their 2-minute offense). In winning that playoff game under those circumstances — without their head coach Kevin Stefanski — against their most-hated division rival was not only the Browns winning their Super Bowl but may very well be the biggest victory in the Super Bowl era. I like Baker Mayfield and this team when they can play with a chip on their shoulder about being disrespected. I hate Baker Mayfield and this team when they start feeling themselves after experiencing positive results. It will be an emotional two weeks by kickoff — and that is difficult to sustain for even the most battle-tested veteran group. The team hopes Stefanski returns to the building on Thursday. I expect Cleveland to be flat in this game despite playing with the proverbial “house money”. Let’s look at the team trends regarding how this team responds to situations like this. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win on the road by at least 10 points against an AFC North rival. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while Cleveland needed to defeat Pittsburgh in Week 17 to make the playoffs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two against divisional opponents. And remember how unimpressive the Browns were in eking out that 24-22 win against Mason Rudolph and the Steelers’ second string? This is a team with Bluto for Animal House’s 0.0 when it comes to their net PPG differential — and they are outgained in yardage on the season. On the road, Cleveland was outscored and outgained. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and this is an uber-difficult fourth game in their last five away from home. Winning the turnover battle in the last two weeks certainly helps — but the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover edge in their last two games. Here comes rested Kansas City under head coach Andy Reid who has covered the point spread in 19 of his 29 games when getting the benefit of a bye week. Worried about the Chiefs only covering the point spread once in their last eight games? KC has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Worried about the Browns running the ball against a run defense that experts at Football Outsiders (who do not incorporate Time of Possession into their metrics) rank as the 31st in the NFL in DVOA? Well, this was an issue last year as well in their Super Bowl championship run. Cleveland won’t be running the ball when down 10 points. The bigger question is how will the Browns’ pass defense that allows 262.5 passing YPG which is 25th in the league (and DVOA! ranks this unit 25th against the pass, as well) stop Patrick Mahomes? Not only has their secondary been banged up all year, but the Browns also lost their second-best pass rusher in Olivier Vernon to a season-ending injury. The Cleveland defense is not good at this point of the season. Big Ben passed for 501 yards against them on Sunday — and Rudolph passed for 309 yards while leading an offense that gained 394 yards. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 450 YPG. Cleveland is also 9-26-2 ATS in their last 37 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. And all this assumes the best case scenario with Cleveland getting everyone back who were in quarantine last week because of COVID. To quote Larry David, this situation is “pretty, pretty, pretty good” (with the caveat that there are never anything “sure things” — but this is as good as it gets. Please don’t bet the house). 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (304) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (303). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (14-3) defeated Indianapolis at home last Saturday in their Wild Card playoff game by a 27-24 score as a 7-point favorite. Baltimore (12-5) has won six games in a row with their 20-13 win at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I hate this situation for the Ravens as they will be playing their third straight games on the road in this one. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning their last two games on the road. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in in 35 of their last 55 games after being on the road in their last two contests — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in three of those last four situations. And while they have covered the point spread for bettors in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. It will be cold with flurries in this game — and quarterback Lamar Jackson has said he has never played in snow in his career. Some quarterbacks love the cold and snow — Josh Allen has performed well in these conditions. This remains to be seen for Jackson — and he may lose mobility playing in these conditions if he is not wearing the correct cleats for his game (and this is not a given that he and the trainers will easily figure it out in this initial trial). Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Bills have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 52 games after a close win by a field goal or less — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a win at home by 3 points or less. Buffalo hosts this game where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. The Bills have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has become a juggernaut with the maturation of Josh Allen this season. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against AFC foes while also covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Home field edge probably makes the difference in this one — not the fans (although Buffalo is allowing limited attendance for this game) but the cold weather and avoiding continued travel like the Ravens are enduring simply puts the Bills is a better position to execute this week. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (304) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (303) and the Buffalo Bills (304). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (12-5) has won six games in a row with their 20-13 win at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Buffalo (14-3) defeated Indianapolis at home last Saturday in their Wild Card playoff game by a 27-24 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The weather is going to be cold with a decent chance of flurries in this game. To quote Dan Marino: “if it’s snowing’, I’m throwin’!” I do not worry about playing Overs in snowy conditions if the supporting evidence points strongly to the Over — which is the case for this situation. The Over is 11-2-1 in the Bills’ last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win at home. Buffalo generated 395 yards of offense in that game while averaging 7.09 Yards-Per-Play. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. Buffalo has scored at least 26 points in nine straight games while eclipsing 30 points in six of those contests. The Bills have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. But Buffalo surrendered 309 passing yards en route to the Colts’ 472 total yards in that game. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Buffalo has allowed 50 combined points in their last two games while giving up at least 24 points nine times this season. Last week’s game just made it Over the 50.5 point Total — and the Bills have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Baltimore has played three straight Unders after last week’s game finished below the 53.5 total — but they have played 24 of their last 41 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. The Ravens have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning their last two games on the road. Baltimore had scored at least 27 points in five straight games before only reaching 20 points last week in what turned out to be a game where both teams wanted to control the clock. And while the Ravens’ defense has only surrendered 18.6 PPG this season, they have given up at least 28 points five times. Buffalo averages 290 passing YPG — and Baltimore has played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG. The Ravens score 28.2 PPG on the road — and while they average 194 rushing YPG, the Bills have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams who average at least 170 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 playoff games when they were the underdog. Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is a heavyweight contest — and both these teams will keep fighting to win which should push the final score Over the Total. 25* NFL Saturday Night Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (303) and the Buffalo Bills (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Green Bay Packers (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-6) has won two in a row after defeating Seattle on the road as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Green Bay (13-3) returns to action off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road by a 35-16 score on January 3rd as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles may be allowing only 18.6 PPG this season — but they have allowed at least 20 points in six of their last eight games. The Rams’ defensive numbers are helped by them holding New England to just a field goal and Arizona to only a touchdown since December. Los Angeles allows their the nine teams they played on the road to 23.1 PPG — so Green Bay scoring at least in the mid-20s is likely. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has also played 32 of their last 49 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Additionally, the Rams have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall under the leadership of head coach Sean McVay. And in their last 5 games in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, Los Angeles has played all 5 games Over the Total. Green Bay has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after winning at least six games in a row. The Packers are scoring 31.6 PPG while averaging 406.9 YPG in their eight home games. Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in nine straight games with them reaching 30 points in seven of those contests. The Packers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 40 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 straight games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Over the Total when favored. 10* NFL LA Rams-Green Bay Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Green Bay Packers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-3) returns to action off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road by a 35-16 score on January 3rd as a 4.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-6) has won two in a row after defeating Seattle on the road as a 3-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rams may be due for a letdown after pulling off that upset victory against their NFC South rival — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after pulling off an upset win on the road against a divisional foe. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games — and while they covered the point spread in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. With John Wolford dealing with the neck injury he suffered against the Seahawks, Jared Goff will be the starting quarterback in this game. Under normal circumstances, I worry about the California product playing in cold weather — he does not have a great history playing in the cold in those rare occasions in his career. Yet asking Goff to control a hardened ball from the cold with screws in his hand may be too much to ask. Highs are expected to be in the 30s for this game. Goff completed just 9 of 19 passes last week for 155 yards. The Rams’ offense relied on their ground game as they rushed for 164 yards — but Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. This is an offense that is scoring only 19.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG in those games. This is old hat for Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a divisional rival. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.1 net PPG. They are holding their guests to just 19.5 PPG along with 308.9 total YPG. They are also scoring 31.6 PPG while averaging 406.9 YPG in their eight home games. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in nine straight games with them reaching 30 points in seven of those contests. Furthermore, the Packers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoffs games at home in the Green Bay cold weather. Aaron Rodgers’ team has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The favorite has covered the point spread in 9 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in the last 6 of these games. It is tough to see Goff at less than 100% keeping up with Rodgers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We had the Buckeyes in their revenge opportunity defeat a Tigers team that beat them in last year’s Semifinals by a 29-23 score. I loved Ohio State in that situation as an underdog — but I hate this spot for them now. Head coach Ryan Day and his team just triumphed against their proverbial white whale — but the job is not done. I worry about a big emotional letdown for this team. As it is, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. The continued COVID situation for Ohio State adds a very troubling complication for this team. Remember, it was the surprise announcement of a slew of Buckeyes’ players dealing with COVID that contributed to their sluggish effort in the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern. Fields struggled without his top weapons in that game — and he may be slowed in this game with the ribs injury he suffered against Clemson. If he is not 100%, the Buckeyes are in trouble. I was unwilling to make a call on the Total for this game without knowing if there is a position group that will not be available to play in this game — if an offensive position group is out, then that helps the Under; if a defensive position group is out, then it helps the Over. Either way, if Ohio State goes into this game undermanned, it could be devastating. Even if everyone takes the field on Monday, the practice and preparation for this team have been less than ideal. Alabama will be primed and ready for this game. Head coach Nick Saban’s team comes into this contest having not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, the Tide have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 67 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in a dominant 23 of their last 28 games after winning but not covering the point spread in their last two games. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on a neutral field favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the SEC. Alabama has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Big Ten foes. 25* CFB National Championship *A-List* Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide flexed their muscles on defense against the Fighting Irish offense by limiting them to 375 yards and just the two scores. Alabama has not only then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. And while that game flew Under the 65.5 point Total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Under. The Crimson Tide has been vulnerable against explosive offenses — Florida generated 462 yards against the Bama defense (including 408 in the air) while Ole Miss put up 268 rushing yards and another 379 passing yards for 647 total yards of offense against a Nick Saban-defense. There is no question that Ryan Day and his offensive coaching staff have dissected the Lane Kiffin game plan he installed for his Rebels’ offense in that game. Alabama has won the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 40 games on the road Over the Total after enjoying a +1 or better turnover battle in two straight contests. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. The Over is 22-9-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last 33 games played on a neutral field — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total on a neutral field as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. Ohio State has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset win by at least two touchdowns. And while they generated 639 yards against the Clemson defense — the Over is then 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes have gained at least 491 yards in all seven of their games this season — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Ohio State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the total set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Yes, this is a biggggg number in the mid-70s. But Ohio State has scored at least 38 points in six of their seven games with their COVID-impacted Big Ten Championship Game against a Northwestern team slowing the game down being the exception. Notre Dame deployed a similar strategy in “holding” Alabama to their lowest scoring total of the season — but the Tide has scored at least 41 points in their other ten games. If both teams hit those floors, the Over comes in. Both of these teams are going to try to “out-offense” the other in what should be a very competitive contest. Tellingly, Saban’s teams have played 13 of their last 19 January Bowl games Over the Total — and this includes all 4 National Championship Games. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (500). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (151) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (11-5) has won two of their last three games after defeating the Steelers at home last Sunday by a 24-22 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (12-4) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: The COVID situation that has hit this Cleveland organization is far from ideal. The Browns have lost eight players to COVID quarantine including Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio and cornerback Denzel Ward. They will also be without head coach Kevin Stefanski who has tested positive. Special teams coach Mike Priefer will be the acting head coach for this game with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt calling the plays. I think that the coaching situation will be fine in-game. The fact that Stefanski prepared and coached against the Steelers for their must-win contest last week really helps to soften the blow — this Cleveland team will be well prepared for this game. Will all the absences make Pittsburgh just a bit more complacent after almost pulling the upset last week despite benching some starters including Ben Roethlisberger? Back to that point in a moment. I love these circumstances for the Browns as they play this game without any pressure coming from expectations. This team in the Baker Mayfield era tends to be at their worst after success when they start believing their hype. Now the only hype is how outclassed they will be — so Myles Garrett and company can play with a chip on their shoulder. As it is, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Furthermore, the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. This team still has the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield who helped them rush for 192 yards against this defense last week with a 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. The Browns generated 358 yards last week — and Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. This is a team that stumbled down the stretch with four losses in their last five games. Can they just flip the switch? Yes, Big Ben Roethlisberger should be in better health this week after getting last week off to rest with Pittsburgh already locked as the three seed in the AFC playoffs. Outside a second half against the Colts where Roethlisberger ignored his offensive coordinator to lead the offense to 17 points, the Steelers’ offense has looked stagnant in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is struggling to run the football — they are averaging only 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This has contributed to the Steelers’ relying on quick passing routes — but with Roethlisberger’s struggles to execute the vertical passing game because of his health, a decline in his skills, or the lack of balance in the Pittsburgh offense — and that has made their offensive attack too predictable. The Steelers failed to score more than 19 points in five straight games before that second half against Indianapolis produced their 28 points in the final score. Pittsburgh has a COVID issue of their own with cornerback Joe Haden out for this game. The Steelers’ outstanding defense continues to get depleted with linebackers Devin Bush and Marcus Dupree already out the year.

FINAL TAKE: Roethlisberger is a perfect 13-0 at home in his career against the Browns — but I think this history of success may only serve to fuel the hints of complacency the players may have for this game. The Steelers have a recent history of underachievement in the playoff as well. They are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in the postseason — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games when favored. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (151) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (151) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (11-5) has won two of their last three games after defeating the Steelers at home last Sunday by a 24-22 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (12-4) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. The Under is also a decisive 39-19-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 60 games after a point spread win. That game with the Browns finished Over the 44.5 point Total — but the Steelers have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Big Ben Roethlisberger should be in better health this week after getting last week off to rest with Pittsburgh already locked as the three seed in the AFC playoffs. Outside a second half against the Colts where Roethlisberger ignored his offensive coordinator to lead the offense to 17 points, the Steelers’ offense has looked stagnant in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is struggling to run the football — they are averaging only 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This has contributed to the Steelers’ relying on quick passing routes — but with Roethlisberger’s struggles to execute the vertical passing game because of his health, a decline in his skills, or the lack of balance in the Pittsburgh offense — and that has made their offensive attack too predictable. The Steelers failed to score more than 19 points in five straight games before that second half against Indianapolis produced their 28 points in the final score. Pittsburgh has thrown the ball 44 and 49 times in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing the ball at least 40 times in two straight games. The Steelers return home where they have been very tough to score on — they are holding their visitors to 18.6 PPG along with 295.1 YPG. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games when favored. And in their last 26 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Pittsburgh has played 17 of these games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Browns have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The COVID outbreak will certainly not make things easier for the Cleveland offense. While having offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt calling plays is a fine alternative, head coach Kevin Stefanski was hired for the job for this organization in part because of his acumen at calling plays. Having Stefanski away from the team given COVID protocols is far from ideal. Losing Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio to COVID also hurts this Browns’ offense. Tackle Jack Conklin is also questionable with an unrelated illness. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has averaged only 165.0 passing YPG in his three starts in Pittsburgh with a low 70.6 Passer Rating while getting sacked 11 times — he needs all the help he can get. The Cleveland defense has been playing better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 17.0 PPG along with 338.3 YPG. The Browns' strategy will be to lean heavily on their ground game and out-physical their divisional rival. Cleveland has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by a field goal or less. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (151) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (149) and the New Orleans Saints (150). THE SITUATION: Chicago (8-8) saw their three-game winning streak end last week with their 35-16 loss at Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog. New Orleans (12-4) has won two games in a row with their 33-7 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Bears will likely try to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep Drew Brees off the field. They are averaging 144.2 rushing YPG since Week 12 which is the sixth-best mark in the NFL. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Chicago has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Saints have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Their win against the Panthers came on the heels of their 52-33 win against the Vikings — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after two straight wins by at least 14 points. While Brees gets most of the attention, the New Orleans’ defense has been quite good this year as they are holding their opponents to just 21.1 PPG along with 310.8 total YPG which ranks fourth and third-best in the league respectively. The Saints have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They also have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. New Orleans does expect to get running back Alvin Kamara back from COVID quarantine for this game. Even without him, they rushed for 156 yards against Carolina — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on November 1st when the Saints won in Chicago by a 26-23 score as a 5-point favorite. The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (149) and the New Orleans Saints (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-4) has won two games in a row with their 33-7 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Chicago (8-8) saw their three-game winning streak end last week with their 35-16 loss at Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should build off their momentum off a divisional game where I thought they might be vulnerable against an underdog playing the role of the spoiler. Instead, the Saints outclassed their NFC South rival who, like the Bears, were motivated by same-season revenge. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New Orleans is scoring 38.0 PPG in their last three games while averaging 405.0 Yards-Per-Game over that span. They return home where they are scoring 31.6 PPG. The Saints are also fourth in the league by allowing only 310.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago backed into the playoffs despite the loss to the Packers. They have been outgained by -13.5 net YPG this season. The Bears are not likely to respond with an inspired effort after their loss to Green Bay as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a double-digit loss at home. Mitchell Trubisky completed 33 of 42 passes for 252 yards in the losing effort — but he did throw an interception without a touchdown pass. Improved play from the offensive line has helped Trubisky to put up better numbers in this second stint as the Bears’ starting quarterback this season. But that game against the Packers was the first time this team played a playoff team since November 29th when they lost at home to Green Bay by a 41-26 score. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. In theory, the Bears’ defense is supposed to keep them in games — and their frontline numbers looked decent last week as they only gave up 316 yards to the Packers. But Chicago allowed Green Bay to average 7.34 Yards-Per-Play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Bears stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 8 games in the playoffs, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the total set in that 42.5 to 49 range. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (147) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (148). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-3 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. Tennessee (11-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-38 win at Houston as a 7-point favorite as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: The Titans have been living dangerously in outlasting their opponents in high-scoring games. They generated 492 yards against the Texans while surrendering 457 yards along the way. But Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games including five of their last seven after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. But the Titans have given up 40 points along with 448 yards in their previous game against the Packers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last two contests. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a game where at least 70 points were scored. This team does not fare well relative to point spread expectations with the number high — they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games with the number at 49.5 or higher and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home with the Total at 49.5 or higher. Let’s fade the inferior defense in this game that lacks a pass rush and allows opponents to score 28.3 PPG along with 414.6 total YPG when playing at home — and they have allowed 445.0 YPG in their last three contests. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Over their last five games, they are averaging 37.2 PPG while converting 61.3% of their third-down opportunities. They stay on the road where they are scoring 29.3 PPG. This team is tough to beat when they get their ground game going — and they can rotate three running backs for fresh legs. Baltimore has rushed for at least 150 yards in five straight games after rolling up an incredible 404 yards last week against the Bengals. The Ravens have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight games. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games in the playoffs. Furthermore, the Ravens are 32-13-6 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record under head coach John Harbaugh — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: This is the most important game for this Baltimore franchise all year after getting upset against the Titans in the playoffs last year by a 28-12 score as a 10-point favorite. They blew their opportunity for revenge in November when they were upset at home against Tennessee by a 30-24 score in overtime as a 6-point favorite. The third installment in this trilogy moves to Nashville — and the road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tennessee ABC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (147) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (147) and the Tennessee Titans (148). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-3 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. Tennessee (11-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-38 win at Houston as a 7-point favorite as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Tennessee has also played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less in their last contest. This Titans’ offense is a juggernaut deploying the running game behind Derrick Henry that also sets up the play-action pass for Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee scores 30.7 PPG — and they are scoring 32.9 PPG at home. They are also scoring 33.7 PPG in their last three games. They generated 492 yards last week against the Titans — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Tennessee has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. But the Titans defense cannot generate a pass rush — they gave up 457 yards to the Texans last week. Tennessee has then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and the Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after giving up 30 points in their last contest. Green Bay put up 40 points against them in their previous game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. The Titans give up 28.3 PPG along with 414.6 total YPG when playing at home — and they have allowed 445.0 YPG in their last three contests. They return home where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. After playing three straight Overs, the Ravens have played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. Over their last five games, they are averaging 37.2 PPG while converting 61.3% of their third-down opportunities. They stay on the road where they are scoring 29.3 PPG. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 3 points — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 6 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and in their last 5 games when playing at home as a dog, all 5 games finished Over the Total. I think both teams score above 25 points in this game which should push the final score at least into the mid-50s. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (147) and the Tennessee Titans (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145) and the Washington Football Team (146). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (11-5) has won four games in a row after the crushed Atlanta last week by a 44-27 score as a 7.5-point favorite. Washington (7-9) has won five of their last seven games after their 20-14 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After the Buccaneers’ offense hit rock bottom in a divisional game against New Orleans where they only scored a field goal, head coach Bruce Arians and Tom Brady retweaked things to better accommodate the veteran’s skill set. In the seven games since, Tampa Bay has scored at least 24 points in each of those games while averaging 34.6 PPG over that span. The Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Tampa Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Bucs gained 485 yards last week against the Falcons, they have then played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay goes back on the road where they have played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a losing record at home. Washington defense has carried them this season — but they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Football Team has also played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against team with a winning record on the road. Washington will not be playing a team tanking for a better draft pick this week — so the defense the surrendered 14 points in the first half to Jalen Hurts will have to play football for a full 60 minutes tonight. But the flip-side of that coin is that the Football Team will have to be more aggressive in their passing attack. Smith should find success against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense that allows 247 passing YPG which is 21st in the league. The veteran is completing 66.7% of his passes which has helped Washington have team completion percentage of 64.7% — and the Buccaneers have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes. Tampa Bay’s defense has surrendered at least 23 points in seven of their last nine games — if they do that again, we should get our Over.

FINAL TAKE: I think Washington’s defense slows down Brady — but the Football Team will be playing from behind and have to rely on Smith’s arm. That dynamic should lead to an Over. Tampa Bay has played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total against NFC foes — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145) and the Washington Football Team (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-9) has won five of their last seven games after their 20-14 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 6.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (11-5) has won four games in a row after the crushed Atlanta last week by a 44-27 score as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: I am not a zombie blindly following these numbers — but Tom Brady has been underachieving in night games. Not only have the Buccaneers lost three of their four prime-time games but they have not covered the spread in all 4 games. Furthermore, Brady has not covered the point spread in 7 straight prime-time games going back to his New England days last season. Those numbers are not encouraging — and I do give even more stock into the fact that Tampa Bay lost five of their six games against teams that made the playoffs. Brady and head coach Bruce Arians just want to win — they don’t care about covering a point spread. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. They may due for an emotional letdown as well as they are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in their last two games as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Washington is a much better team with Alex Smith at quarterback — they have won five of the six games he has started this season. His numbers are not great — but I think he can move the team down the field if pressed to be more than a game manager not making mistakes. Smith should find success against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense that allows 247 passing YPG which is 21st in the league. The Football Team has an outstanding defense that it is second in the NFL by allowing only 304.6 YPG. They have a great pass rush that fits the profile that has given Brady problems in the past in that they can rotate fresh bodies while generating pressure from a four-man front without relying on a blitz that takes away someone in pass coverage. Washington is sixth in the NFL with 47 sacks. In their last three games, the Football Team has only allowed 18.0 PPG along with just 266.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I love this situation for Washington who can play in their familiar building without any pressure. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. 25* NFL ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (145). THE SITUATION: THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-4) has won four games in a row with their 26-23 win at San Francisco as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 18-7 win against Arizona as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against an NFC West foe — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Seahawks are also 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread loss. Russell Wilson seems to be in a slump with the team scoring only 22.0 PPG in their last three games. But he did not suddenly forget how to play football — and the Seahawks were cruising into the playoffs in the second half of the season while intentionally working on improving their running game (which will help their defense). Yet Seattle remains a team that is scoring 29.6 PPG at home — and I have full faith in Wilson to continue to score points if the Rams are scoring in a competitive game. The Seahawks return home where they were 7-1 this season even without fans with an average winning margin of +9.1 net PPG. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when favored by up to 7 points. In Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll, I trust in situations like this. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 7 games in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs, the Seahawks have covered the point spread 6  times. Whoever Los Angeles starts at quarterback, they will be at a significant disadvantage in comparison to Wilson. Jared Goff plays better at home — and he will not be close to 100% with screws in his throwing hand even if he plays. John Wolfed will be playing in his first playoff game if he takes the field. The former Wake Forest QB only completed 22 of his 38 passes last week against the Cardinals defense. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is scoring only 15.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 323.3 YPG in that stretch. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 55 road games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in Seattle. And while they will be looking to avenge their 20-9 loss in Seattle two weeks ago on December 27th, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 opportunities to avenge a loss. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (143) and the Seattle Seahawks (144). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 18-7 win against Arizona as a 1-point favorite. Seattle (12-4) has won four games in a row with their 26-23 win at San Francisco as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win at home over an AFC North foe. This is a bit contrarian play with the number dropping into the 42 range. Los Angeles has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders. Granted, the Rams are averaging only 15.7 PPG in their last three games — and head coach Sean McVay has not committed to a starting quarterback with Jared Goff getting screws in his throwing hand and John Wolford having no experience in the playoffs. But the offense is getting healthier around these quarterbacks with left tackle Andrew Whitworth and wide receiver Cooper Krupp expected back on the field for this one and rookie running back Cam Akers established their lead running back. McVay seems to like Wolford — he can make some throws that Goff is not great at executing. The Rams are scoring 25.8 PPG on the road — and their pass attack is predicated on their play-action from their rushing attack being credible which should be the case in this game. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Rams have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as a dog. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win over a divisional rival — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a narrow win by a field goal or less. The Seahawks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Russell Wilson seems to be in a slump with the team scoring only 22.0 PPG in their last three games. But he did not suddenly forget how to play football — and the Seahawks were cruising into the playoffs in the second half of the season while intentionally working on improving their running game (which will help their defense). Yet Seattle remains a team that is scoring 29.6 PPG at home — and I have full faith in Wilson to continue to score points if the Rams are scoring in a competitive game. The Seahawks are dealing with injuries on defense including Jamal Adams dealing with a shoulder. Their win over the 49ers did finish Over the Total — and they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in January — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs. These teams did just play to a 20-9 score two weeks ago — and their first meeting this season finished Under the Total with the Rams’ 23-16 win. I think this one goes Over — with both teams scoring at least 20 points. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (143) and the Seattle Seahawks (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (141) and the Buffalo Bills (142). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-5) has won four of their last five games after their 28-14 win against Jacksonville last Sunday as a 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo (13-3) has won six games in a row with their 56-26 upset win against Miami as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Indianapolis generated 437 yards of offense against the Jaguars in the win — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Led by the veteran Philip Rivers under center, the Colts are scoring 28.2 PPG — and this offensive prowess travels on the road where Indy is scoring 28.9 PPG while averaging 378.8 YPG. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road. Running back Jonathan Taylor peaking just in time for the playoffs. The former Wisconsin Badger ran the ball 30 times for 253 yards with two touchdowns in the Colts’ win against the Jaguars. Over his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 741 yards with a 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry average along with seven touchdowns. But the Indianapolis defense has been vulnerable against good passing attacks in their last five games. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 70% of their passes while averaging 311 passing YPG in those last five games. Enter the Buffalo offense that leads the NFL by scoring 38.2 PPG since Week 12. Quarterback Josh Allen is completing 70% of his passes over his last five games with 15 touchdown passes while averaging over 300 YPG and posting a QBR of 117. The Over is 10-2-1 in the Bills’ last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a point spread victory. Buffalo tore up the good Dolphins’ defense for 455 yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills did surrender 454 yards to Miami — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Buffalo allows their visitor to average 376.4 YGP.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 5-2-1 in the Bills’ last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and Indianapolis has played 5 straight games Over the Total against a team with a winning record. Expect a higher-scoring game. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Buffalo CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (141) and the Buffalo Bills (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-5) has won four of their last five games after their 28-14 win against Jacksonville last Sunday as a 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo (13-3) has won six games in a row with their 56-26 upset win against Miami as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills have been a freight-train in the second half of the season with all six of their victories being by double-digits. Quarterback Josh Allen has taken his game to the next level — fueled by a rigorous offseason program motivated by his embarrassing performance in the playoffs last year. But I expect things to become more difficult for Buffalo — especially against this Indianapolis team that can deploy the strategy that has given them the biggest problems this season. The Bills are small upfront on defense after losing some important players from last season that were then magnified when defensive tackle Star Lotulelei opted-out this season. Buffalo is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is 26th in the league. In their three losses this season, the Bills were torched on the ground. Tennessee ran the ball 34 times for 139 yards while also using the commitment to their ground game to set up play-action passes in their 42-16 thrashing of Buffalo. Kansas City ran the ball 46 times for 245 yards in their 26-17 victory over the Bills. And Arizona ran the ball 35 times for 257 yards in a 32-30 upset victory that ended with that Hail Mary touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins. Indy can deploy a similar strategy with rookie running back Jonathan Taylor peaking just in time for the playoffs. The former Wisconsin Badger ran the ball 30 times for 253 yards with two touchdowns in the Colts’ win against the Jaguars. Over his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 741 yards with a 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry average along with seven touchdowns. As it is, Buffalo looks primed for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after winning four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five in a row. And while the Bills were underdogs against the Dolphins because they had little at stake last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win at home by at least two touchdowns. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after a double-digit win over an AFC East foe. Additionally, while the Bills are 7-1 at home, they are being outgained by -18.3 net YPG in those games. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win over an AFC South rival — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a double-digit win over a divisional rival. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Indy has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is averaging 396.4 YPG — but Indy has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who average at least 350 YPG. The Bills are banged up at wide receiver Stefan Diggs probable but dealing with an oblique and Cole Beasley questionable with a knee. Allen needs both at peak effectiveness. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (101) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-13 loss to Carolina as a 1-point underdog. Philadelphia (4-10-1) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven games after their 37-17 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point underdog. Washington must win this game to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS THE POINTS: My initial thoughts on this game earlier this week was that the home dog tonight would be intriguing against this Washington team that must win this game to make the playoffs. But I hate this situation for the Eagles. Philadelphia declared nine players out yesterday — and this list includes running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and tight end Dallas Goedert no offense. The Eagles are simply getting very thin when it comes to injuries their skill position and offensive line units. The losses on defense are just as significant with defensive linemen Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett out along with linebacker Duke Riley. There goes the potent Philly pass rush. What will the morale be for this team at this point? Sure, they want to play the role of the spoiler. But defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz declaring he plans on taking next year off (and leave the team) sends a strange message. So too does the rumors that head coach Doug Pederson will be retained for next season — OK, but does that take him off the hook for this game? The nine players declared out combined with cornerback Jalen Mills being on the COVID list and the 14 other players this season they have lost — this is beginning to look like the junior varsity. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has played quite well in his first three starts at quarterback — he led the Philly offense to 477 total yards last week. But expect head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington defensive staff to have a good game plan against Hurts. It is usually about three games worth of tape in the NFL before opposing defenses begin to get a good book on quarterbacks to design more effective schemes. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC East foes. Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. They gained 386 yards last week in the loss to the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. It does look like it will be Alex Smith back under center for this game with his taking part in a limited practice on Friday after missing the last two games with a calf injury. This team also looks to get back running back Antonio Gibson and wide receiver Terry McLaurin. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Look for a conservative game plan that limits mistakes and leans heavily on the Football Team’s outstanding defense that ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 310.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: I expect an inspired effort from the Football Team. Sure, they need the win to make the playoffs. But with Smith’s comeback from his gruesome leg injury along with Rivera getting cancer treatments during the season, I just think there is a different resolve for this team. And Rivera dared to dump the apparent dead weight that was Dwayne Haskins — I think the locker room will appreciate no longer coddling the former top draft pick. Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing in Philadelphia. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Football Team (101) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-13 loss to Carolina as a 1-point underdog. Philadelphia (4-10-1) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven games after their 37-17 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point underdog. Washington must win this game to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles declared nine players out yesterday — and this list includes running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and tight end Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia is getting very thin when it comes to injuries their skill position and offensive line units. They have played 9 straight games Under the Total when playing at home after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has played quite well in his first three starts at quarterback — he led the Philly offense to 477 total yards last week. But the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Expect head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington defensive staff to have a good game plan against Hurts. It is usually about three games worth of tape in the NFL before opposing defenses begin to get a good book on quarterbacks to design more effective schemes. The Philly defense also gave up 513 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home where they hold their guests to just 23.4 PPG along with 336.3 YPG. The Eagles have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Football Team has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Washington has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Football Team has managed only 15 and 13 points in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Washington did gain 386 yards last week but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. It does look like it will be Alex Smith back under center for this game with his taking part in a limited practice on Friday after missing the last two games with a calf injury. With second-year QB Dwayne Haskins cut earlier this week, it will be Taylor Heinicke as the backup quarterback if Smith gets re-injured. Look for a conservative game plan that limits mistakes and leans heavily on the Football Team’s outstanding defense that ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 310.5 total YPG. Washington is scoring only 17.0 PPG while averaging 310.7 YPG in their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a favorite. They upset the Eagles by a 27-17 score as a 5.5-point favorite on September 3rd - and Philly has played 3 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (113). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-10) snapped a three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 20-13 win at Washington as a 1-point favorite. New Orleans (11-4) ended a two-game losing streak with their 52-33 win against Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie head coach Matt Rhule has said he will play his starters in this game as he tries to instill a winning culture with his program. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. And while that game flew Under the 41.5 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Panthers did surrender 386 yards in that game while being outgained by -106 net yards. But Carolina has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games at home after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. The Panthers are dangerous underdogs who have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when at least 50 combined points were scored. The Saints took a terrible blow to their offense with the news that Alvin Kamara tested positive for COVID. The offense is already without their top wide receiver, Michael Thomas. And Drew Brees has not been the same after returning from his broken ribs injury. He is completing only 56% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 83 since getting back on the field. It is not only Kamara but the entire running back department that is out for this game given tracing protocols — so it will not be Latavious Murray who running the football. Instead, it will be practice squad running backs and Taysom Hill supporting Brees in the backfield. They did outrush the Vikings by +174 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards in their last game. The Saints’ defense has taken a step back as of late as well — they have allowed 55 combined points in their last two games. New Orleans has also allowed their last three opponents to average 171 rushing YPG. In those three games, the Saints allowed 29.7 PPG along with 396.0 total YPG. They allowed 274 passing yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be looking to play spoiler for the Saints’ attempt to earn the top-seed in the NFC playoffs. They are also motivated to avenge a 27-24 loss at New Orleans on October 25th as a 7-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (103) and the Indianapolis Colts (104). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-14) lost their fourteenth straight game this season with their 41-17 loss to Chicago as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-24 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars’ soft-tanking job consists of somehow deciding Mike Glennon is a better choice to be their quarterback than Gardner Minshew. Sure, if the goal is to never score enough points to threaten to win a second game this season. Jacksonville has scored 41 combined points in their last three games while never topping 17 points in those three contests. They are averaging only 300.0 YPG in those games. To make matters worse this week, running back James Robinson and wide receiver D.J. Chark are out with injuries. The Jaguars defense is a mess — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played two straight Overs, they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing an Over — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road after playing two straight Overs. The Jags have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in January. Indianapolis has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Colts’ offense has taken a massive blow with left tackle Anthony Castonzo who went on Injured Reserve this week with a knee injury. The strength of the Indianapolis offense is their line with Castonzo being the key member. Indianapolis still has a strong defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 335.3 YPG. The Colts return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total in the last two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Indianapolis. With Buffalo beating Miami, it looks like the Colts will already be in the playoffs before this game kicks off — and that may come to head coach Frank Reich to bench Philip Rivers and other key starters on offense. Indy will likely run and grind their way to victory. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (103) and the Indianapolis Colts (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (123) and the Buffalo Bills (124). THE SITUATION: Miami (10-5) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 26-25 win in Las Vegas last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Buffalo (12-3) has won five games in a row after their 38-9 win at New England on Monday as a 7-point favorite. The Bills have won the AFC East — and they clinch the second seed in the AFC playoffs with a win. The Dolphins make the playoffs as a wildcard with a victory

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The rub with the Buffalo is that they also clinch the second seed if Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland as a double-digit underdog because they are resting starters including Big Ben Roethlisberger. Head coach Sean McDermott has not indicated how long he will play his starters — but he will likely scoreboard watch and best Josh Allen, et al if the Browns take control of that game. As it is, the Bills have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Their defense is playing much better as of late as they have not allowed more than 20 points in four of their last five games — and over their last three games, they have given up just 14.3 PPG along with 226.7 total YPG. They held the Patriots to just 56 passing yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a two-game road trip. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a dog. Miami has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as an underdog. The Dolphins gained 383 yards in that game — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. 182 those yards were from Ryan Fitzpatrick who is out of this game because of COVID. Fitzpatrick averages 232.8 passing YPG with a 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt average — but Tua Tagovailoa is averaging only 161.4 passing YPG with a 6.3 YPA mark when he is the starter. Miami averages only 323.1 YPG when playing on the road. But the Dolphins are built on defense as they hold their opponents to just 18.8 PPG. They did give up 418 yards to the Raiders — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. They look to avenge a 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo on September 20th — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (123) and the Buffalo Bills (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost three straight games after their 27-13 loss at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (6-9) has won three straight games with their 37-17 upset win at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog. The winner of this game puts themselves in position to make the playoffs from winning the NFC East if Washington loses on Sunday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New York has lost three straight games — but they have all been against good teams looking to qualify for the playoffs in Arizona, Cleveland and then the Ravens last week. And while Daniel Jones was at his best this season before his hamstring injury since he was a threat with his legs, he still has been solid in the passing game since his return. He completed 25 of 41 passes for 252 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions last week — and he has not thrown an interception in five straight games. I thought the Giants were perhaps overvalued during their four-game winning streak in the second-half of the season — but they are being too quickly dismissed now. This is a gritty team under first-year head coach Joe Judge that plays solid fundamental football. They should play their best game in a month this afternoon. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They fell behind at halftime by a 20-3 score to the Ravens after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime to Cleveland the week before — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight games. Additionally, New Giants have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Look for the New York offense to center around Wayne Gallman who has rushed for 617 yards in place of the injured Saquon Barkley. He will be going against the worst run defense in the league that allows 161.1 rushing YPG this season. Facing the Cowboys may be just what the doctor ordered after this difficult stretch of games as the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in January. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Dallas is the toast of the town — again — right now with three straight wins including the last two as upset victories over the 49ers and then the Eagles last week. Their victory over the Bengals started the winning streak — but the Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record over this stretch. Don’t be surprised if and when Dallas disappoints yet again after playing themselves back into the playoff picture. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Dallas offense has found a rhythm as of late with Andy Dalton under center as they have scored at least 30 points in three straight games. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. They generated 513 yards again the Eagles’ defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Cowboys have up 477 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road in January. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last six situations.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. They did defeat the Giants at home on October 11th by a 37-34 score as a 7.5-point favorite — but New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (8-1) enters the postseason coming off a 34-13 win at Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite on December 19th. North Carolina (8-3) comes off a 62-26 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 3-point underdog on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M has a chip on their shoulder for this game after not getting what they considered to be the “second” automatic bid into the College Football Playoff semifinals after getting bypassed by Notre Dame and an Ohio State team that “only” played six games (after seeing their non-conference schedule consisting of Bowling Green and Buffalo cut due to COVID). Will the Aggies come into this game with something to prove — or will they be complacent? The history of Jimbo Fisher teams is to take bowl games seriously. Fisher’s teams have won seven of their nine bowl games while covering the point spread in 6 of these 9 bowl games. And Fisher is regime building in College Station with a 25-10 record in his first three seasons there including two bowl wins after they crushed NC State in the Gator Bowl last year by a 55-13 score. This is a prestigious New Year’s Six bowl game in the cushy Saturday night prime-time slot with plenty of eyeballs from recruits to playoff committee members to AP voters that will make their preseason rankings which sets the table to rig the game for Power Five conference teams for playoff considerations — and the rich Texas A&M alumni are always watching with interest. So, yeah, I think Fisher has had his whip out for his team in practice to prepare for this game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they gained 497 yards against the Volunteers, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. Senior Kellen Mond completed 26 of 32 passes for 281 yards in the win — and Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Aggies also have an outstanding defense that ranks 11th in the nation by allowing 316.6 YPG. North Carolina may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory on the road by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling off an upset win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Additionally, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win over an ACC opponent. UNC exploded for 778 yards against the Hurricanes while outgaining them by +464 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Head coach Mack Brown is dealing with several opt-outs for this game with three of his top skill players on offense in wide receiver Dyami Brown and running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams and his best defensive player in linebacker Chazz Surratt bypassing this game. Brown has young but untested talent filling their shoes. The Tar Heels rushed for a whopping 554 yards against Miami — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Now they face a stout Aggies run defense that holds opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry — while ranking second in the nation by allowing only 92.2 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (496) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (495) in the Fiesta Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (8-3) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the Big 12 Championship Game with their 27-21 loss to Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog on December 18th. Oregon (4-2) ended their two-game losing streak in the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 31-24 upset win against USC on December 18th as a 3-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State should bounce-back with a strong effort for head coach Matt Campbell. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after winning at least three of their last four games. Quarterback Brock Purdy completed 27 of 40 passes for 322 yards against a quality Oklahoma defense but his three interceptions did the Cyclones in — including one in the waning moments of the game when Iowa State was driving for the potential winning score. Iowa State outgained Oklahoma by +43 net yards in the Sooners’ opportunity to avenge their earlier loss to them. The Cyclones have held their last two opponents to just 120 and 54 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games are not allowing their last two opponents to rush for at least 125 yards. Oregon was did not earn the right to play in the Pac-12 Championship Game but took full advantage of their opportunity after Washington had to pull out of that game because of COVID. But the Ducks needed a +2 net turnover margin in that game overcome the Trojans outgaining them by 115 net yards. Oregon was outgained by -27.3 net YPG in their last three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. The Ducks did surrender 320 passing yards to USC which is not an encouraging sign now when facing the gunslinger Purdy. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 280 yards in their last game. QB Tyler Shough struggled in the game as well as he completed only 8 of 15 passes for 91 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against non-conference opponents — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field with a total set at 56.5 to 63. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa State Cyclones (496) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (495). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (4-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 19th with their 53-48 upset loss at LSU as a 1-point favorite. Indiana (6-1) has won their last two games with their 14-6 upset victory at Wisconsin on December 5th as a 12-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Ole Miss surrendered 593 yards against the Tigers in what has been a horror show of a season for them on defense. But they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rebels committed six turnovers in that game with quarterback Matt Corral throwing five interceptions in the loss. He should clean that up a bit in this bowl game. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a game where they turned the ball over at least four times — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Corral will be without his top two targets in wide receiver Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah who have opted out for the NFL draft. But those two did not play against LSU — and they still gained 558 total yards with 251 of those yards in the air. Corral needs to make better decisions — and head coach Lane Kiffin’s offensive schemes should generate plenty of yardage no matter who is out there. The Rebels rushed for 307 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. They may be without running back Jerron Early who is questionable with an injury. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after pulling off an upset win as a double-digit dog. The Hoosiers won that game despite being outgained by -125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Indiana defeated Maryland in their previous game by a 27-11 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. This team did most of their good work this season with the dynamic Michael Penix, Jr. but he is out the season with an ankle injury. The offense is simply not the same with Jack Tuttle under center. The Hoosiers gained only 217 yards against Badgers — and they have thrown for only 130 and 115 yards in their two games since Tuttle inherited the quarterbacking gig. Indiana is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be motivated since the Hoosiers have not won a bowl game since 1991 while the Rebels have not won a bowl game since 2016. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and Ole Miss is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on a neutral field. The Rebels are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Look for a close game with Ole Miss’ offense keeping them in this game. 25* CFB ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (491) minus the point(s) versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (492) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kentucky (4-6) looks to close out their season after a 41-18 win against South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on December 5th. NC State (8-3) has won four games in a row with their 23-13 win against Georgia Tech as a 7-point favorite on December 5th. The Gator Bowl is played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kentucky looks pretty unappealing to bettors with their 4-6 record — but they are battle-tested from their SEC schedule. Head coach Mark Stoops’ team should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Wildcats did get their offense cranking as they generated 492 yards against the Gamecocks. Kentucky is tough when they can match some scoring punch with their consistent quality defense. The Wildcats have covered the  point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 475 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Kentucky’s spread option attack was good for 291 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They will have an interim offensive coordinator for this game after Stoopes sacked their current OC for the quarterbacks coach for the Los Angeles Rams. They should have some wrinkles for this game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing for more than 20 points in their last game. They are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a win at home against a conference rival. The Wolfpack have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Despite their 8-3 record, NC State is being outgained by -26.7 net YPG — and they were outgained by -58.2 net YPG in their five games away from home.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a dog. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the ACC. Kentucky has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams outside the SEC — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Gator Bowl ESPN Special with the Kentucky Wildcats (491) minus the point(s) versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (492). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) and the Clemson Tigers (334) in the Sugar Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (6-0) won the Big Ten Championship Game with their 22-10 win over Northwestern as a 16.5-point favorite on December 19th. Clemson (10-1) won the ACC Championship Game with their 34-10 win against Notre Dame on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers cruise into this game with three straight point spread covers since Trevor Lawrence returned to action after his positive COVID test. Clemson has played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as a favorite. They crushed Virginia Tech by a 45-10 score prior to the ACC Championship Game — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games on the road after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. The Tigers have not allowed more than 17 points in their last three games — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight games. Clemson did generate 541 yards against the Irish — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tigers are fifth in the nation by allowing only 298.5 YPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field as a favorite — and they have played 19 of their last 28 game Under the Total in bowl games. Ohio State rushed for 399 yards in the Big Ten Championship Game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes will want to build off that effort to keep Trevor Lawrence off the field. They have gained at least 491 yards in all six of their games — but they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in four straight games. Additionally, Ohio State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in bowl games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is Clemson’s sixth straight College Football Semifinals appearance — and the previous five Semifinals all finished Under the Total. The Tigers’ defensive coordinator Brent Venables is the best in the business — and he has his defenses ready to go on all cylinders for these games. This is a rematch of last year’s College Football Semifinals which Clemson won by a 29-23 score. Stalled drives kept that game Under (frustratingly for us, last year). Ohio State generated 516 yards but only scored those 23 points. With both Josh Fields and Trevor Lawrence playing once again in this rematch, both teams’ defensive coaching staffs have worked on this hypothetical rematch against these specific quarterbacks for over a calendar year. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) and the Clemson Tigers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334) in the Sugar Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (6-0) won the Big Ten Championship Game with their 22-10 win over Northwestern as a 16.5-point favorite on December 19th. Clemson (10-1) won the ACC Championship Game with their 34-10 win against Notre Dame on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: It cannot be understated how significant a negative impact it was for Ohio State to have 22 players out in the Big Ten Championship Game — including their best wide receiver Chris Olave and one of their best defensive players in linebacker Baron Browning. Now, more than ever, I am embracing patience and due diligence before releasing plays after getting burned that morning (and we still should have covered that game with the Buckeyes’ final offensive drive stopping at the 1-yard line as time expired). A few important thoughts guided my decision this morning. The Buckeyes declared wide receiver Chris Olave as available to play this morning (along with their other players including Browning). Many of the 22 players impacted by COVID did not take part in full practice -- but that is not all that uncommon during the season (although not ideal). Now there is a narrative developing that Clemson has a situational advantage for this game having played in five more games. Maybe — although I have never heard the same argument made in college basketball (e.g. Duke has played in five more games than North Carolina — edge Blue Devils!). I just think this intangible is being significantly overplayed. Even though Ohio State has played six fewer games, they have been practicing the entire time! I mean, Ryan Day was pulling two-a-days in August even when the Big Ten canceled their darn season. And it is not as if Ohio State has been practicing against the local Columbus high school team in place of getting those five extra games against The Citadel and Syracuse that Clemson enjoyed. They were practicing and being coached-up playing against each other. Yes, statistically-speaking, elite teams improve in their efficiency numbers as the season moves forward — but not all of that improvement is contained to their game-day experiences. And, by-the-way, if we are going to become laptop fundamentalists on this point (despite the lack of data distinguishing between more practice time experience versus more practice and game time experience, then I would like to gently suggest that those same laptops give the edge to Opponent Adjusted Efficiency to the Buckeyes rather than the Tigers (with Pitt and Boston College and Syracuse and the Citadel). Furthermore, won't the five fewer games played now make this Buckeyes’ team relatively fresher? I remember all the darn Hot Takes four months ago that the potential postponement of the fall season until the spring would be devastating to the “student-athletes” who did not get a full offseason to recover before the fall because the regular season is so grueling. These are just bullshit arguments. What edge Clemson has in being a bit more battle-tested is likely mitigated with Ohio State being a little fresher. The Buckeyes have been motivated by revenge for this potential rematch for over a calendar year — with QB Josh Fields particularly anxious to redeem himself from that late interception in their 29-23 loss in the College Football Semifinals. Clemson has been mediocre at running the football as they average just 163.8 rushing YPG (68th in the nation) with little explosiveness as they had only three rushes for more than 40 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops think this is closer to a coin flip game — and I agree. It not often that the Buckeyes are getting around a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games as an underdog when getting 3.5 to 7 points. They have also covered the point spread in their last 4 games played in January. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (332) in the Rose Bowl in the College Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (10-1) looks to bounce back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 19th. Alabama (11-0) won the SEC Championship on December 19th with their 52-46 win over Florida as a 16.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH PLUS THE POINTS: Notre Dame will not be intimidated playing Alabama after two showdowns with a Clemson team that is as talented as the Crimson Tide. The Fighting Irish should come out swinging in this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 9 straight games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Additionally, the Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in January. The Crimson Tide has scored at least 42 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in four straight games. Bama has been fortunate in the turnover battle having at least a +1 net turnover margin in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. They will be without starting center Landon Dickerson who suffered a season-ending injury against Florida — and he was the glue of that elite offensive line who called the line formations. Tide quarterback Mac Jones has been vulnerable when facing pressure — and the Irish rank 8th in the nation in pressure rate while also ranking 32nd in sack rate. Both Florida and OIe Miss proved that good offenses can move the ball against their defense: the Gators generated 462 yards of offense (with their 46 points) while the Rebels gained a whopping 647 yards against them for 48 points. The other nine teams Alabama played this season combined to average only 13.3 PPG along with just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. The Tide’s defensive numbers appear inflated by a weak strength of schedule.

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, the Irish appear undervalued in this spot against all might Alabama that the public loves to support. The laptops project this to be closer to a two-touchdown spread — so the value is on Notre Dame. Considering that there is a decent chance of some backdoor cover action even if Bama rolls since Nick Saban will want to conserve energy while Ian Book will still be airing it out, I expect the Irish to stay within the inflated number. 10* CFB Rose Bowl ESPN Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (332) in the Rose Bowl in the College Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (10-1) looks to bounce back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 19th. Alabama (11-0) won the SEC Championship on December 19th with their 52-46 win over Florida as a 16.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide are going to score their share of points. They have scored at least 38 points in all eleven of their games while reaching at least 41 points in each of their games since their opening contest. They have the top Success Rate in the country which suggests they will convert first downs and score touchdowns in the Red Zone. Alabama has played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total after scoring at least 42 points in their last game — and they have scored at least 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. And while they have scored at least 42 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 42 points in four straight contests. They raced out to a 35-17 lead at halftime against Florida — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total after leading by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game. Both Florida and OIe Miss proved that good offenses can move the ball against their defense: the Gators generated 462 yards of offense (with their 46 points) while the Rebels gained a whopping 647 yards against them for 48 points. The other nine teams Alabama played this season combined to average only 13.3 PPG along with just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. The Tide’s defensive numbers appear inflated by a weak strength of schedule. Can Notre Dame approach 30 points in this game? I think so. The most impressive thing about their upset victory against Clemson was the 90-yard drive they executed late in the game to force overtime after the Tigers had rallied in that game after their offense slowed down. The Fighting Irish scored less than 27 just twice this season. Perhaps head coach Brian Kelly will try to slow this game down by running the ball? Well, he didn’t try that against Clemson in that upset win. And playing conservatively fails as soon as a team trails by double-digits — so the Irish may not have a choice in how aggressive they play. Notre Dame has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. And while that game finished Under the 58 point total, the Irish have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Irish have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.4 and 8.2 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.25 YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has seen the Over go 22-8-2 in their last 32 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in January. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on the faster field turf rather than the grass field like at their home field. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (329) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (330) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Auburn (6-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on December 12th with a 24-10 win at Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 22-10 loss to Ohio State as a 16.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Northwestern’s effort and final score against the Buckeyes is skewed to all the surprise players out for Ohio State because of the COVID outbreak that impacted that program. They played — and lost by 12 points (which should have been at least by another, infuriating, touchdown with that game ending on the Wildcats’ 1-yard line). This is an overvalued team. Remember, they lost by nine points at a Michigan State team that finished 2-5 (and we were on Sparty that day!). Northwestern won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their 6-2 record, they only outgained their opponents by +9.8 net YPG. They have a profile of a 4-4 Big Ten WEST team. Not East. West Division. And whatever weight we could put on their elite defense that was 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 15.5 PPG (total defense: 338.8 YPG, ranking 21st in the nation), they will be out starting defensive end Eku Leota and cornerback Greg Newsome who opted-out of this game to enter the transfer window. Teams that have players transferring in lieu of their New Year’s Day bowl game usually lack the roster depth to just “plug-and-play.” As it is, Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Wildcats possess a below-average offense that ranked 99th in the nation by averaging just 348.6 YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring at least 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, this team has lost the turnover battle in three straight games which is a big red flag for this contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing the turnover battle in at least three straight games. Auburn has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 6 games played with at least two weeks of rest and preparation, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these games. This team lost their head coach when Gus Malzahn was fired. Boise State’s Bryan Harsin will take over next season with the interim head coach being Kevin Steele. I expect the Tiger players to rally around each other and their coordinators to make a statement after their head coach was sacked (the ole “don’t blame us, blame the idiot who got sacked” principle). Steele is feisty and should have his team fired up. And this entire coaching staff is using this game to audition for their next job. Auburn is dealing with opt-outs with running back Tank Bigsby joining wide receiver Anthony Schwarz and cornerbacks Christian Tuitt and Roger McCreary in choosing to not play in this game. Two things here: (1) these absences have been built into the line and (2) I trust the roster depth of Auburn far more than I do of Northwestern. The Tigers got some good news when safety James Sherwood confirmed he would play today.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn has a big edge at quarterback with Bo Nix having more talent and having played in many more big games than former Indiana transfer Patrick Ramsey for Northwestern. The Wildcats are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games outside the Big Ten while the Tigers have covered the point spread 6 of their last 7 games against non-conference foes. 10* CFB Citrus Bowl ABC-TV Special with the Auburn Tigers (329) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (327) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (328) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (9-0) maintained their unbeaten season on December 19th by defeating Tulsa in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game by a 27-24 score as a 13.5-point favorite. Georgia (7-2) closed out their regular season with a 49-14 win at Missouri as a 14-point favorite on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: We have seen this movie before: a Group of Five upstart feeling snubbed by the College Football Playoff Committee and the football punditry getting their opportunity to flex their muscles against a disappointed SEC team with questionable motivation experiencing a handful of opt-outs. Georgia will be without the following starters who have opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft: All-SEC right guard Ben Cleveland; linebacker (and heart of their defense) Monty Rice; cornerback Eric Stokes; running back James Cook; tight end Tre McKitty. The Bulldogs have also dealt with some tough injuries with starting defensive tackle Julian Rochester out with a knee and starting center Trey Hill out with his knee. Cornerback Richard LeCounte is questionable with a concussion. Those are a lot of starters not playing in this game — and it neutralizes the “SEC talent edge” against this Cincinnati team since the players Georgia will call on lack the big-time playing experience that helps make that conference the best in the country. I do appreciate that the Bulldogs’ offense is much better with former USC transfer J.T. Daniels under center. I considered this closely. Keep in mind that Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 35 points against an SEC rival in their last game. Daniels completed 16 of 27 passes for 299 yards with three touchdowns in the win against the Tigers — and he led a Bulldogs’ offense that racked up 615 yards. But Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. A powerful passing game is simply not the blueprint that has brought this program their best success under defensive head coach Kirby Smart. They beat South Carolina on the road in their previous game by a 45-16 score — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games on the road by double-digits. The red flag with this team is their pass defense that has allowed 253.4 passing YPG which is 92nd in the nation — and that is before their opt-outs on that side of the football. Behind junior quarterback Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati averages 242.2 passing YPG which is 48th in the nation. He leads a balanced offense that scores 39.3 PPG and averages 467.2 total YPG which is  15th and 20th in the nation. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 269 yards with a touchdown with the win over Tulsa. He also is a dangerous threat with his legs as he ran for 609 yards with 12 touchdowns on a 7.3 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a conference rival. Cincinnati has an outstanding defense as well which has held their opponents to 16.0 PPG along with 310.8 total YPG which ranks 6th and 8th in the nation. This stout defense has helped them cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This game will be played in Atlanta — but I usually think the “home crowd edge” is overrated in bowl games even with stadiums at full capacity. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field with the total set in the 49.5 to 56 range. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the AAC. 10* CFB Peach Bowl ESPN Special with the Cincinnati Bearcats (327) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (328). Best of luck for us — Frank (PS: I will have a busy Friday card with at least one big 25* play in the CFB playoffs with likely the side and total in both games).

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) and the Army Black Knights (212) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: West Virginia (5-4) has lost three of their last five games after their 42-6 loss at Iowa State as a 6-point underdog on December 5th. Army (9-2) has won three straight games after their 10-7 upset win against Air Force as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, West Virginia has played 6 straight games Under the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have scored only 14.8 PPG in those four road games. They are also scoring just 14.3 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 338.3 Yards-Per-Game during that span. West Virginia has a good statistical defense as they rank 5th in the nation by giving up just 297.2 total YPG. And while they gave up six touchdowns to the Cyclones in their last game, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Army has played a decisive 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Black Knights have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They will bring an outstanding defense into this game that ranks second in the nation by both holding their opponents to 14.0 PPG and by allowing just 271.1 total YPG. The Black Knights have the best statistical defense in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 149.9 passing YPG. And while those numbers were improved by facing four triple-option teams this season, they picked off 13 passes this season. But the Army offense is limited as they have only scored 17.7 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 240.0 YPG during that span. They have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total one playing on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Army has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total in December — and West Virginia has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in December. Even with the total in the low-40s, expect this game to stay Under in this battle of two stout defensive teams that can struggle in moving the ball on offense. 10* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) and the Army Black Knights (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Army (9-2) has won three straight games after their 10-7 upset win against Air Force as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. West Virginia (5-4) has lost three of their last five games after their 42-6 loss at Iowa State as a 6-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This bowl game presents the Mountaineers the opportunity to redeem themselves from an embarrassing loss — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing by at least four touchdowns on the road in their last game. West Virginia had covered the point spread in their previous three games before that bad loss to the Cyclones — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of -15.2 PPG. The Mountaineers have scored only 14.8 PPG in those four road games. They are also scoring just 14.3 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 338.3 Yards-Per-Game during that span. West Virginia has a good statistical defense as they rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 126.2 rushing YPG. But they have surrendered 183 rushing YPG over their last three contests in getting exposed by Texas, TCU, and then Iowa State. Now this Mountaineers team faces a triple-option rushing attack for the first time since 2015. Furthermore, they will face this challenge without one of their best defensive players in linebacker Tony Fields, Jr. who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Army should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a contest where neither team scored more than 17 points. Additionally, Army has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They will bring an outstanding defense into this game that ranks second in the nation by both holding their opponents to 14.0 PPG and by allowing just 271.1 total YPG. The Black Knights have the best statistical defense in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 149.9 passing YPG. And while those numbers were improved by facing four triple-option teams this season, they picked off 13 passes this season.

FINAL TAKE: Army is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral field. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his team ready to play. West Virginia is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in December and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight bowl games. Furthermore, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field when favored. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (321) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (322). THE SITUATION: Ball State (6-1) looks to build off their 38-28 upset win against Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as a 12.5-point underdog on December 18th. San Jose State (322) remained unbeaten this season after they upset Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by a 34-20 score as a 6.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at Arizona Stadium in Tuscon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State is a feisty veteran team that put it all together this season. Head coach Mike Neu got a two-year extension last year despite never posting a winning record in his first four years with the Cardinals program. Ball State finished 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference last season after losing three games in November by just eight combined points. Fourteen starters returned from that group — and after an opening loss to Miami (OH), this group rattled off six straight wins to get this opportunity to play in this bowl game. The Cardinals have covered the point spread 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Ball State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least two straight games against conference rivals. And while the Cardinals allowed 499 yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 405 yards in their last game. Ball State will not have running back Caleb Huntley who opted-out for this game but they have a capable backup in Tye Evans. Moving forward, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. San Jose State may be due for a letdown after continuing their perfect season by upsetting Boise State. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after pulling off an upset loss to a conference rival as an underdog getting at least 6 points. San Jose State has also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after pulling off an upset win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Spartans held the Broncos to just 258 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. This San Jose State team may be too one-dimensional as they ranked only 85th in the nation by averaging 141.6 rushing YPG. I am skeptical of the strength of the Mountain West Conference this season — and this is the Spartans’ first non-conference game this season. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. The Cardinals have a gunslinger of a quarterback in Drew Plitt. Ball State should keep this game close against a San Jose team that is an unreliable favorite laying more than a touchdown. 10* CFB Arizona Bowl CBS-TV Special with the Ball State Cardinals (321) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (317) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (318) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (3-7) snapped a three-game losing streak on December 19th with a 51-32 upset win at home against Missouri as a 1-point underdog. Tulsa (6-2) looks to bounce back from a 27-24 loss at Cincinnati as a 13.5-point underdog on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOG PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): On paper, it may look easy to take a 6-2 team against the first-ever 3-7 team to play in a bowl game (I think … at least in my memory). Yet this Tulsa team was very fortunate to achieve six wins after winning three of their four games decided by one scoring possession. They pulled off a miracle comeback victory in double-overtime against Tulane. The analytics folks project a Golden Hurricane victory in the 7-point range — but the laptops do not have the benefit of a robust non-conference schedule to enrich its data. The anecdotal evidence so far in the bowl games does not suggest that the American Athletic Conference was strong this year. AAC teams have lost three of their four bowl games with a -34 net point differential in those games. The lone victor was Memphis who defeated Florida Atlantic representing Conference USA that is generally considered a step down in competition. The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss by a field goal or less. And with senior quarterback Zach Smith completed only 13 of 30 passes against the Bearcats for just 166 yards with two interceptions in the loss, Tulsa has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Tulsa has lost seven of their ten games — but these were all against SEC opponents. This is a team that upset LSU and played Georgia to just a 7-point loss in Athens. This is a roster of SEC talent which is generally a few notches above the quality of player in the American Athletic Conference. And the Bulldogs lost three of their four games decided by one scoring possession — this could have been a team with a 5-5 record with a couple of breaks. The offense improved under first-year head coach Mike Leach as he transitioned away from K.J. Costello to freshman Will Rogers at quarterback. Mississippi State scored 28.3 PPG while averaging 388.3 total YPG over their last three games which was +7.6 PPG and +41.1 YPG above their season averages. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game at home where both teams scored at least 31 points. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games are losing five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in December. For Tulsa, this is their first bowl game since 2016 in the second-season under head coach Philip Montgomery. The weather will also be a bit dicey with rain expected and high winds in Fort Worth. The better athletes that were faced tougher tests this season will be on the Mississippi State sidelines — and Leach will want to go out a winner to build momentum for next season. 10* CFB Armed Forces Bowl ESPN Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (317) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (316) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (315) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (8-2) won the Big 12 Conference Championship Game on December 19th with their 27-21 win over Iowa State as a 5-point favorite. Florida (8-3) lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on December 19th by a 52-46 score as a 16.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a  neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gators have seen eight players opt-out of this game as of this writing on Wednesday afternoon. The losses are significant. On offense, quarterback Kyle Trask has lost his top four targets in tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receivers Trevon Grimes and Kadarius Toney. Jacob Copeland is already out tonight due to COVID. These four players account for 174 receptions for 2778 yards with 34 touchdowns. Th cupboard is not dry for Trask — former Penn State transfer Brandon Shorter along with some intriguing freshman will get their opportunity in this game. But these are untested players. None of Trask’s targets tonight have caught more than 13 passes on third down or more than 13 passes of at least 20 yards. The Florida defense will be without leading tackler in linebacker Ventral Miller and senior nose tackle Kyre Campbell. They depart a disappointing Gators’ defense that allowed 28.6 PPG and 404.7 total YPG with both marks ranking 86th in the nation. These losses are simply too much to overcome for a team that got upset against LSU before being overrun by the Crimson Tide. As it is, Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games are losing two in a row to SEC rivals. The Gators surrendered 89 points in their last two games after giving up 37 to the Tigers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. Florida has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Sooners have won seven games in a row after losing two of their first three games. This group is much better now at the end of December as compared to where they were in October. Redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler has steadily improved this season — he has completed 68.0% of his passes for 2784 yards with 25 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Oklahoma also got back running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins in Game Six after both served five-game suspensions. Stevenson rushed for 479 yards with six touchdowns on a  5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. Perkins registered 5.5 sacks. Under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, this Oklahoma defense has made significant improvements. They ranked 19th in the nation by allowing only 334.6 YPG and they held their opponents to just 21.9 PPG. They will be without cornerback Tre Brown but he is their only opt-out as of this writing. Under Grinch, the Sooner rank in the top-ten in the nation in Havoc Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma has lost three straight College Football Semifinals — they should be very motivated to get a win in a bowl game to end their season. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against SEC foes — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Cotton Bowl ESPN Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (316) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.