At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Sean Payton was livid with his team after they committed ten penalties accounting for 129 yards with five of those penalties accounting for first downs for the Raiders. The Saints are the most-penalized team in the league with 248 penalty yards after two games. Payton kept his team in Vegas overnight to discuss the mistakes his team has been making. Expect this team to come out on fire. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Drew Brees is getting plenty of criticism this week for not throwing the ball downfield. Is he losing arm strength? Yeah, probably — but that is probably an overrated quality (at least, Brett Favre and Phill Simms say so). Certainly Brees misses wide receiver Michael Thomas who will be out for this game with his ankle injury. But even without Thomas last week, Brees led an offense that averaged 7.44 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last contest. The problem for New Orleans besides the penalties — or, another result of the penalties that kept FIVE drives alive — was that they only had the ball for 23:42 minutes in that game. The Saints gained 424 yards on Monday — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. The short week should not be a problem as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with six days or less of rest. And in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, New Orleans is 27-13-1 ATS. Before we crown the Packers the Super Bowl Championship for scoring 85 points in their first two games, lets remember that they did this against an injured Detroit defense and a Minnesota defense that lost five starters from last year’s team. Remember, Green Bay was outgained last season by their opponents but made it to the NFC Championship Game because they were 9-1 in one-possession games. They were closer to an 8-8/9-7 team, in practice, that a 13-3 team. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers may be without Rodgers’ favorite target in Davante Adams after he injured his hamstring which kept him out of the second half last week against the Lions. Adams is going to try to play it looks like (and he is my fantasy line up tonight for Guinea Pig Nation) — but I am not optimistic. But Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (485) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (486). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their miracle 40-39 victory over the Falcons in Atlanta last Sunday where they were 3-point favorites. Seattle (2-0) comes off a 35-30 victory at home over New England last Sunday night as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas should be emboldened from their late rally which saw them score 16 points in under five minutes to play in that game. The Cowboys did dominate Atlanta by generating 570 yards while outgaining them by +190 net yards. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys trailed by a 29-10 score at halftime, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 road games after trailing by at least two touchdowns in their also game. And Dallas has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games after allowing at least 35 points in their last contest. Seattle comes off an emotional win on national prime-time television against the Patriots. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and there will not be fans in the stand for this game given COVID-10 precautions. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents. While Russell Wilson is getting all the headlines, Seattle’s defense is a growing problem. New England outgained them last Sunday by a 464 to 429 margin. The lack of a credible pass rush is allowing opposing quarterbacks to tee-off against the Seahawks’ secondary. Seattle is last in the NFL by allowing 416 passing YPG — and the 485 total YPG they are allowing is also last in the league. Pay Dak his $$$! Prescott completed 33 of 47 passes for 450 yards in orchestrating the Cowboys’ comeback last week — and that offense was at its most effective when it was running through him rather than Ezekiel Elliott.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home when favored. The Cowboys are dangerous underdogs who have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Dallas-Seattle Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (485) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their heartbreaking 35-30 loss at Seattle last Sunday night as a 4.5-point underdog where they failed to convert on the goal-line on the final play of the game that would have given them the victory. Las Vegas (2-0) comes off a triumphant 34-24 upset victory at home on Monday Night Football against New Orleans as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders earned an emotional win in their debut in their new Allegiant Stadium (down the road from the Hollywood Sports office) — but they now find themselves in a letdown situation after their perfect 2-0 start to the season. On a short week, Las Vegas has to make their second trip out east in three weeks to play at a 1 PM ET start — during a pandemic! — with the old 10 AM PT body clock problem. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home. The Raiders did generate 377 yards of offense against the Saints defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the bigger concern is that they were outgained by -47 net yards with New Orleans generating 424 yards despite only having the football for less than 24 minutes in that game. The Saints also gifted the Raiders 129 yards from their ten penalties with five of them directly producing first downs. New Orleans averaged a whopping 7.44 Yards-Per-Play on Monday. They are allowing 6.54 YPP after two games. They are also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should respond with a strong effort as they are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games after a straight-up loss in the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots’ offense looks fantastic under the direction of (a completely healthy again) Cam Newton. After rushing the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns in the opening week, he torched the Seahawks for 397 passing yards by completing 30 of 44 passes — and he added another 44 yards on the ground with two more rushing scores. These are all great signs for Belichick whose teams have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after scoring at least 30 points. New England outgained Seattle by a 464-429 margin despite losing on the scoreboard. The Patriots are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. New England needs to tighten things up on defense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Belichick is the best in the business in having his defense take away the opposing offenses’ best weapon — so that means plenty of attention Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller who caught 12 passes for 103 yards on Monday. Las Vegas receiving corps drops off after Waller and first-round draft pick Henry Ruggs III is still dealing with an injury. The Patriots return home where they are a decisive 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have been a great early story to the season — but they remain a team that averaged only 15 PPG over their final seven games while never topping 24 points so I am not completely sold that this is now a 30 PPG scoring attack despite scoring 68 points so far this season. This is also a team that got blown out by a 42-21 score to Tennessee, a 40-9 score at Kansas City, and a 34-3 score in New York to the Jets (!) in the final six weeks of the season. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) takes the field again after suffering a 16-13 upset loss at Georgia Tech two weeks ago on September 12th as a 13-point favorite. Miami (2-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they defeated Louisville on the road by a 47-34 score as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Things started well in the first game under first-year head coach Mike Norvell. Junior quarterback James Blackman led the offense to 10 points in their first two possessions — but then things went off the rails. Blackman turned the ball over twice on fumbles while throwing an interception and two others drives were stopped by failed 4th down conversions. The Seminoles generated 438 yards of offense but scored only three more points the rest of the way to suffer the upset despite outgaining the Yellow Jackets by +221 net yards. Florida State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference foe. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Florida State will be a bit healthier for this game with FAU transfer Meiko Dotson and Hamsar Nasirildeen bolstering their defensive backfield after missing the Georgia Tech game. The team will also be inspired to play for Norvell who is not making the trip to Miami given quarantine protocols after he tested positive for COVID-19. I do think think his absence will negatively impact the Seminoles. He was able to work with the team remotely to help establish game plans and purpose for this showdown. While Norvell always has called the offensive plays going back to his four-year tenure as the head coach at Memphis, offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham who was his OC and quarterbacks coach for two seasons at Memphis will take on those responsibilities. Dillingham was the offensive coordinator for Auburn last season. Tight ends coach Chris Thomsen will handle the head coaching responsibilities with his head coaching experience at Abilene Christian from 2005 to 2011. Miami may be due for an emotional letdown after their big won on national television last week against the Cardinals. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Hurricanes defeated Louisville despite getting outgained by -31 net yards. Second-year head coach Manny Diaz has to be happy with his new-look offense behind transfer QB D’Eriq King as they generated 485 total yards last week — but Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Hurricanes also gained 495 yards against UAB in their opening game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. But the defense is an issue despite their 18 tackles-for-less that they have generated this season. Louisville torched them for 516 yards last week but it was the three takeaways and their +3 net turnover margin that made the winning difference in that game. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing a turnover in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has not been a reliable favorite as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. Florida State has lost the last three meetings between these two teams after getting upset last year in Tallahassee by a 27-10 score as a 3-point underdog. Look for a close game between these in-state rivals. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (455) plus the points versus the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (456). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (0-2) is winless so far this season after getting crushed at home to Troy by a 47-14 score as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday. UTSA (2-0) is unbeaten this season after they defeated Stephen F. Austin on Saturday by a 24-10 score as a 17-point favorite. This game was scheduled just last Saturday after Memphis canceled their game with the Roadrunners due to COVID-19 and the Blue Raiders had an open date today after Old Dominion canceled their football season last month.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee is struggling — having their two high-profile transfer running backs in Amir Rash from Florida State and Martell Pettaway from West Virginia opt-out to play this season left head coach Rick Stockstill without a credible rushing attack to complement dual-threat quarterback Asher O’Hara. Opposing defenses are not being punished for backing off defending the Blue Raiders ground game to pay more attention to O’Hara’s running threat or their passing attack. And the Middle Tennessee defense is getting pounded. The Blue Raiders managed just 241 yards of offense last week against the Trojans while being on offense for just 24:15 minutes of that game. Well, in Stockstill I trust to right-the-ship. Middle Tennessee has rebounded to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns. And while the Blue Raiders were outgained by a whopping 255 yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after being outgained by at least 225 yards. Furthermore, Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. The Blue Raiders have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to gain more than 275 yards in their last game. Better production on offense will take the pressure off the Middle Tennessee defense that allowed 496 yards last week. The Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 475 yards in their last game. And while they also allowed 42 points to Army in the opening game of the season, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Roadrunners remain a team that was just 4-8 last season — and those four victories were against teams that accrued only three victories against FBS opponents last season. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in September. Furthermore, the Roadrunners are just 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised if junior quarterback Chase Cunningham gets more snaps under center for Middle Tennessee as he is a better pure passer than O’Hara. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games when laying the points. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (455) plus the points versus the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-1) enters this game coming off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog. Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Quarterback Gardner Minshew comes off a big game where he completed 30 of 45 passes for 339 yards — but the Jags have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they passed for at least 300 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top weapons in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is questionable with a chest injury. Now Jacksonville returns home where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored. Miami needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing 524 total yards last week against the Bills. But the Dolphins have still played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Under is 8-2-1 in Miami’s last 11 appearances on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have played 26 of their last 36 games on the road Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Jacksonville has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the number installed in the 42.5 to 49 point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-1) comes off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: There sure is a lot of love all of the sudden for this Jaguars’ team that was considered to be “tankin’ for Trevor” to get the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence as their franchise quarterback. But second-year QB Gardner Minshew is completing 75.4% of his passes with six touchdown passes and undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has emerged with 164 rushing yards to make their supporters understand why they released Leonard Fournette in training camp. Yet Jacksonville has still failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while Minshew threw for 339 yards against the Titans defense, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Keep in mind that it was Minshew’s two interceptions on Sunday that helped the Titans overcome being outgained by a 480 to 354 yardage margin to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 69 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top targets in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is listed as questionable with a chest injury. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home game when favored. And not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after surrendering at least 30 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and the have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two straight contests to AFC East rivals. In head coach Brian Flores I trust to get this team focused on a short week. Remember, this team was supposedly “tankin’ for Tua” last year before they rallied from an 0-7 start to the season by then winning five of their last nine games. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent but it was the good version of him on Sunday as he completed 31 of 47 passes against an outstanding Bills defense for 328 passing yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Getting wide receiver DeVante Parker healthy and back on the field is a big help for Fitzmagic — Parker has 78 catches for 1227 receiving yards with 10 touchdown passes in his last sixteen games. The Dolphins generated 410 yards of offense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: There is inherent value with the underdog in this one — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as the dog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites. New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is one of the rare instances in professional sports where the home field advantage will be at it’s most diminished. Not only will there be no crowd support tonight given COVID-19 restrictions but head coach Jon Gruden’s team lacks a familiarity and comfort level edge (which I think is under-appreciated) since will be their very first game played at Allegiant Stadium. I have studied home advantage closely — especially over the summer when handicapping European soccer that began the crowd-free experiences in the globe’s Project Restart. Psychologists do make an argument that there is an edge for home teams given their sense of territoriality. It is a theory — and impossible to quantity since it is difficult to accurately measure this motivation. This Raiders team will certainly want to establish that their new “Death Star” is their “turf.” Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog — and while the “home” part is not a strong lagging indicator for this game, it is telling that they have performed better when their opponent lacks a home crowd and familiarity advantage. And while the Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week to the Panthers, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football, Las Vegas (as the Oakland Raiders) are 4-1-1 ATS. The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. This team has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of the preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win over an NFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. The Saints were outgained in that contest against the Buccaneers by -41 yards last week. Tampa Bay was 2nd in the league last year with +15 net turnovers — but what happens to this team if they do not win the turnover battle?

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first two weeks of the new season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the season under head coach Sean Payton. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. As it is, New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC South rival. Additionally, the Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over the Total. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a favorite of no more than 7 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher. And in their last 5 second games to a new season, the Saints have played 4 of these games Under the Total. The Under is 10-4-1 in Las Vegas’ last 15 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined goals were scored. Las Vegas did not score more than 24 points in each of their final games last season — and they averaged just 15 PPG over that stretch. QB Derek Carr lacked a credible deep threat all season — that was supposed to be the role Antonio Brown would have assumed. The team drafted Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs with their 1st round pick to address this need — and he was targeted five times with three catches for 55 yards in the first half. Ruggs is listed as questionable to play but he will take the field tonight — however, it is unclear how effective he will be as he nurses the knee injury that kept home out of the second half last week. Las Vegas will rely on running back Josh Jacobs for this game — but the Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in forty-four straight games. The Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week — but the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas had played their last four appearances representing Oakland Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing in the first two weeks of the season including playing four of five Unders as the coach of the Raiders. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). Best of luck for  us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (287) and the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in September after last week’s game. don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Patriots also limited Miami to just 87 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players — and that is what New England needs with their make-shift front seven. The Patriots have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. New England has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in September even after last week’s high-scoring game — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Seahawks have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they allowed 434 passing yards to the Falcons last week, they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: While New England seems committed to their ground game, don’t be surprised if Seattle avoids the outstanding Patriots’ secondary by getting back to their rushing attack to take advantage of the suspect New England front seven. Expect this to be a quick game with the running clock with what should see perhaps sixty rushing attempts between both teams. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (287) and the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England should build off their momentum from last week as they are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a point spread win. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players. It is telling that New England is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are also an impressive 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Cam Newton looked like a young man fully-healthy again with the mental reset of playing in a new environment. Don’t underestimate how much injuries have slowed him down since his Super Bowl run with Carolina a few years ago. Newton was an efficient 15 of 19 for 155 yards while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt last week. He also ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns. When he is healthy, he is simply money in short-yardage situations. And don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. It is not often that Belichick-coached teams are underdogs — and New England is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games when getting the points. Seattle defeated the (now 0-2) Falcons last week despite being outgained by -123 net yards in that game. The Seahawks surrendered a troubling 506 yards to Atlanta in that game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win. The defense improved significantly with the acquisition of Jamal Adams — but this team remains suspect with both their offensive and defensive lines. The Seahawks are just 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has the reputation for having a strong home-field advantage — but they will be without their “twelfth man advantage” with no fans in the crowd raising the decibel levels. As it is, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 21-11 loss at New England as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 27-17 win at home against the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami struggled to generate offense against the tough Patriots defense — they managed only 169 yards of offense last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled with three interceptions last week. But Fitzmagic has a nice track record when facing the Bills. In his last four games against Buffalo, Fitzpatrick is averaging 297.3 passing YPG while completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdown passes and just one interception while posting a Passer Rating of 100.1. Head coach Brian Flores usually gets every ounce of talent from his roster — and he should have his team play hard this afternoon. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Miami has also been a dangerous underdog under Flores as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Additionally, the Dolphins should have a home edge with the Bills traveling to muggy South Beach. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. Buffalo has sky-high expectations this season with New England perhaps taking a step back in the post-Tom Brady era. But the Bills are loaded with injuries — especially at linebacker with starters Matt Milano and stud Tremaine Edmunds out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has won the last three meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last year. The Bills won in South Beach in the most recent encounter on November 17th by a 37-20 score as a 7-point favorite. Flores probably had Buffalo as his number one work priority in the offseason — and in Flores I trust. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) got shellacked in Baltimore against the Ravens by a 38-6 score as a 7-point underdog. Cincinnati (0-1) began the Joe Burrow era on Sunday with a disappointing 16-13 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: It is already a gut-check moment for this Cleveland team who cannot afford to start the season 0-2 with two losses against divisional rivals. This team is ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football (especially on defense) — but they did get some good news that wide receiver Jarvis Landry will likely be able to play tonight. This team is loaded with talent so the injuries are not nearly as devastating as what the Bengals are also facing. The formula for success should be to run the football with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt against a suspect Cincinnati defense to set up the play-action pass to Landry and Odell Beckham. Falling behind by a 24-6 score by halftime took Cleveland out of what they want to accomplish on offense with their running game. Yet Chubb and Hunt were the only running backs in Week One to average over 3.0 Yards-After-Contact (Chubb: 3.5 Yards-After-Contact average; Hunt: 3.3 Yards-After-Contact average) — so the potential is there for them to dominate this Bengals defense. If and when the Browns take the lead, they will get the Bengals to play from behind which will afford Myles Garrett and company to expose a weak and depleted offensive line to attack a rookie quarterback playing on a short week. That recipe is easier to execute than asking a new head coach Kevin Stefanski to have his team ready to play a 14-win Baltimore team with new schemes and a new coaching staff without the benefit of preseason games in the opening week of the season. Cleveland should respond with a better effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns to an AFC North rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Additionally, the Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home as a favorite. Cincinnati only generated 295 yards of offense last week against the Chargers’ defense. Burrow completed 23 of 36 passes for 193 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception — but he was not given much time. Burrow averaged only 2.21 seconds per throw in his 36 attempts which is not much time for a rookie quarterback. The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL — and that unit will be without right guard Xavier Su’a-Filo who is out with an ankle injury. Now the rookie quarterback is challenged with learning from his mistakes on Sunday while preparing for the Browns defense on a short week. Rookie quarterbacks have a dismal record in the first half of the season when playing on a short week for Thursday Night Football. These rookie QBs have only won once in seven starts while throwing ten interceptions to just one touchdown. Cincinnati is also banged up on defense with defensive tackles Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels out tonight and starting cornerback Trae Waynes already on injured reserve. Moving forward, the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing a low-scoring game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing on Thursday Night. The Browns will play much better tonight simply by substituting out a loaded Ravens team for this Bengals group. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (0-0) takes the field again after a 9-7 campaign that ended by losing at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Denver (0-0) comes off a 7-9 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans will have revenge on their mind after getting shutout in Denver back on October 13th by a 16-0 score. That was the final straw for head coach Mike Vrabel who benched starting quarterback Marcus Mariota in that game. Ryan Tannehill came on to complete 13 of 16 passes in relief with that effort being enough to earn him the starting job that he then ran away with for the rest of the season. Tennessee won nine of their last thirteen games while leading the team one win away from the Super Bowl. Tannehill completed 67.9% of his passes while throwing 27 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. Tannehill opened up the vertical threats for this team as he completed 9.0 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. But what defined success for Tannehill was his ability to operate in play-action. Tannehill sells the fake hand-off with the Titans using the play-action decoy to Derrick Henry (and the other running backs) 77.1% of the time with Tannehill under center. Tannehill generated a Passer Rating of 140.6 in the playoffs in play-action which was the best of all quarterbacks in the postseason. He will face a depleted Broncos’ pass rush that will be without Von Miller who went on IR with an ankle injury. Bradley Chubb will be on a pitch count as well with him dealing with an injured ACL. The lack of a pass rush will likely have Tannehill licking his chops. He completed 72.9% of his passes with a clean pocket with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions while averaging 9.63 YPA — and his 122.6 Passer Rating from a clean pocket led the NFL last season. Tennessee should come out very motivated to avenge being shutout last year — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. This team averaged 24.1 PPG last season — and they also averaged 24.9 PPG on the road last season along with posting a 350.8 total YPG mark. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying the points. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. The Broncos are excited about the potential of their offense this season in the second season of quarterback Drew Lock. The former Missouri Tiger won four of his five starts to end the season last year. The organization hired Pat Shurmer to be the offensive coordinator after he became available when he was let go as the New York Giants’ head coach. The team also surrounded Lock with more weapons by signing running back Melvin Gordon from the Chargers and drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. The Broncos need to improve their 18.8 PPG scoring average at home last season. Denver held their guests to just 17.9 PPG but that is a number that looks destined for regression given the attrition that the unit has endured. Not only is Miller out but they also lost defensive back Chris Harris, Jr. to a middling unit in production as they were just 14th against the pass and 15th against the run. Frankly, their defensive scoring average was somewhat the product of a defensive head coach in Vic Fangio who ran the ball to burn time off the clock to shorten the game and rest his defense. If and when the Broncos fall behind in this game, then Denver will have to abandon the run game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. Expect Tannehill to have a good game which will force the Broncos to lean on Lock to win this game — and that is a recipe for an Over with the Total set in the low-40s. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) comes off an 8-8 season last year. New York (0-0) looks to build off a 4-12 campaign last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers are optimistic that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be rejuvenated coming off elbow surgery after an injury that caused him to miss fourteen games last year. Fingers are crossed for the 38-year old but, like with Tom Brady yesterday, perhaps he is another quarterback who would have benefitted from the five to eight offensive series that a few preseason games would have provided him. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in September. Head coach Mike Tomlin is likely to continue to lean on his outstanding defense especially when playing away from Heinz Field. The Steelers have played 39 of their last 52 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 22 of their last 27 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Pittsburgh was 5th in the league last year by allowing just 18.9 PPG — and they ranked 3rd best in the NFL by allowing only 194.6 passing YPG. The Steelers dialed-up 54 sacks last season while forcing 38 takeaways which is not good news for the second-year quarterback they will be facing. Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the number set in 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing seven straight Unders when playing on the road with the Total set in that range. New York is hopeful that Daniel Jones takes the next step at quarterback after his rookie campaign. His backers are encouraged by the three four-touchdown passing games he produced in the second half of the season. But remember that those contests were against Detroit, the NY Jets, and Washington with defenses that are far cries than what he will face tonight. He will be operating under a new system under rookie head coach Joe Judge who hired Jason Garrett as his offensive coordinator. Jones could use a full preseason to get comfortable with the Garrett game plan. The Giants also have a reshuffled offensive line after Nate Solder opted-out from playing this year. New York drafted Andrew Thomas in the first round while adding center Nick Gates and right tackle Cam Fleming — but there will be growing pains for this unit as they develop cohesion together. The offensive game plan will likely be to rely on star running back Saquon Barkley — but he averaged just 55.7 rushing YPG last year against top-ten defenses as compared to his 90.5 rushing YPG average against the rest of the NFL.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season. While those four games were under the Pat Shurmer regime, Judge comes from New England so I do not expect him to suddenly roll out the Air Raid offense in this situation. Expect the Giants to try to run the ball with Barkley as long as they can stay competitive in this game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (477) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): I was leaning to taking Dallas in this game before conducting my deep dive — and I am more convinced after that survey while being pleasantly surprised that the steam has been on the Rams to make them a small favorite in many spots. I think the oddsmakers were right to install Dallas as the initial favorite. They deserved better last season. They outscored their opponents by +7.0 PPG while outgaining them by +104.5 net YPG. Those are numbers that usually equate with teams that finish in the 11-5 range. What happened? The Cowboys endured five net close losses in their six games decided by one possession. That is the ultimate reason why Garrett is gone a former Super Bowl-winning head coach is now in charge. McCarthy is not enlisted to win more close games but to also oversee his team pulling away in games they are winning so they do not get decided by one or two bad breaks. Dallas was a very good road team last year who outgained their opponents by +65.8 YPG away from home. This consistency also made Dallas a very live dog. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles hosts this game but does has only the thinnest of home-field advantages. Without fans, these home teams lack the energy that a crowd can offer. In the NFL, that does play more of a role than the other sports taking place right now because loud stadiums disrupt the quarterback’s ability to communicate at the line of scrimmage. The noise the NFL is allowing home teams to pipe into their stadium is so minimal it has little effect. Prescott will be able to audible verbally at the line of scrimmage tonight without any issues. But the Rams are also making their debut in their new SoFi Stadium — so they do not even get the underrated advantage of familiarity when playing at home. Head coach Sean McVay’s team has had two practices in their new facility — big deal.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles was actually outgained and outscored when playing at home last year — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Would the Rams be favored if this game was being played on a neutral field? I don’t think so — and this is essentially what SoFi Stadium is for McVay’s team without cheering fans in the stadium nor a sense of familiarity or comfort in the confines. Dallas crushed LA last December 15th by a 44-21 score. While I do not expect another 23-point win, are the changes between these two teams that dramatic? I think this Cowboys team is better with McCarthy leading the way. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (477) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: McCarthy kept Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator while deferring to him to continue to call plays for quarterback Dak Prescott. But the stout offensive line that Prescott has enjoyed over the years is not as strong. Five-time Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick returned in the offseason while their elite right tackle, La’El Collins, is beginning the year on the IR with a hip injury. The depth of the Cowboys will now be tested with Joe Looney taking over at center after playing in just five snaps last season while the poorly graded Cameron Erving becomes their best option at right tackle. Red zone offense was a problem for the Dallas offense when they were playing on the road last season. They averaged 388.4 total YPG away from home but that only translated into 22.1 PPG. The Cowboys’ offense may also struggle without the benefit of the preseason to implement the new principles that McCarthy wants to bring to the offense. As it is, Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog (which they now are after the line movement earlier in the day) — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total when the underdog. Dallas does have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan — and I think the veteran has a lot to offer the Cowboys. Dallas only allowed 20.4 PPG on the road last year along with just 322.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and this includes them playing four of their last five games Under the Total when favored at home. The LA defense improved significantly midseason after the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville. For the season, the Rams allowed only 339.6 total YPG. I have heard some pundits comment about how tough head coach Sean McVay is early in the season after the benefit of the offseason to devise new plays and offensive strategies. Yet Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 51 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season including playing three of their last four opening two games Under the Total in the last two seasons. The Rams have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. LA will have the benefit of surprise on defense with new defensive coordinator Joe Staley calling the defense — and Dallas does not have the benefit of even vanilla game-tape from exhibition games to get a sense of what changes he will implement.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 15th where the Cowboys pulled a 44-21 upset win as a 1-point underdog with the final score flying over the 48 point total. Dallas ran the ball 36 times for 248 yards and three touchdowns — but their two highest-graded offensive linemen from that game were Fredericks and Collins who will not be on the field tonight. The Cowboys will likely stick with their commitment to the run with Ezekiel Elliott but expect this rematch to be a much lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (476) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (475). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in overtime in the NFC Divisional Playoffs to Minnesota last year by a 26-20 score. Tampa Bay (0-0) comes in with big expectations after signing Tom Brady in the offseason to upgrade their team that finished 7-9 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are a trendy Super Bowl pick with Brady joining a team loaded with offensive talent along with an underrated defense. But I suspect that it will take some time for this team to begin to gel on offense. Tampa Bay could have used preseason games to help get Brady and his offense in synch against hostile competition. Brady had a tendency to start slow with the Patriots — they were just 4-4 ATS in their last eight games played in September. He may not have one of his best weapons available to him either with wide receiver Mike Evans listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. In theory, Brady improves this team because he will eliminate all the interceptions that Jameis Winston threw over the years. But on the other hand, the Buccaneers were 3rd in the NFL last year by scoring 28.6 PPG while averaging 397.3 total YPG — and there is no guarantee that this offense maintains that level of productivity under Brady who does not have as strong an arm as Winston. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC South opponents. The Buccaneers are also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog. New Orleans has a big edge in continuity with Drew Brees and the entire coaching staff returning to make one last push for another Super Bowl championship. The Saints have few weaknesses with all their units on both sides of the ball being at least considered above average — and they have an elite offensive line along with their special teams. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in the first half of the season. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Brady inherits a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Saints. The continuity edge for New Orleans should help them exceed point spread expectations in this Week One showdown. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (476) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) kicks off the 2020-21 season at home after their 31-20 triumph in the Super Bowl over San Francisco. Houston (0-0) has the first crack at them with revenge on their minds after losing to them at Arrowhead Stadium by a 51-31 score. There will be fans in the stadium tonight with capacity capped around 22% given concerns social distancing protocols.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: If the importance of coaching staff will be even more significant after an offseason adapting to COVID-19 and the lack of preseason games, then assign a big advantage to Andy Reid and his assistants. Reid’s success coming off bye weeks have become legendary — but he usually also gets his team to outperform expectations early in the season. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in September — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five opening games to a new season. The Chiefs will also have the benefit of continuity with twenty of their twenty-two starters back from last year’s championship team along with the entire coaching staff. Kansas City is without their Super Bowl starting running back in Damien Williams who opted out due to COVID-19 concerns — but they addressed that issue by drafting LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round. The rookie has been compared to pass-catching running backs like Darren Sproules — but assistant coach Kevin Faulk made the eye-popping comparison to Barry Sanders which would make this offense downright scary if even close to being accurate. The Kansas City defense did improve in the second half of the season under first-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo — they led the NFL after Week Ten by holding their opponents to just 11.5 PPG with Baltimore being the next stingiest by limiting teams to only 13.3 PPG during that span through the regular season. Spagnuolo runs a complicated system that takes time for defenses to master — so a big jump in competency for this unit now in his second season is likely. The Chiefs are led by safety Tyrann Mathieu who may very well have been the most valuable player on defense in the league last year. Kansas City will have the advantage of familiarity playing at home tonight where they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games. The Chiefs are also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games when favored. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Texans’ big move in the offseason was trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for running back David Johnson. Houston has an interesting set of wide receivers that are probably underrated — but it will take for them to gel with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Brandin Cooks was brought in from the Rams but he is listed as questionable with a quad injury for this game. The absence of Hopkins in being Watson’s go-to receiver will have its biggest impact early in the season. And while I think head coach Bill O’Brien is too often a punching bag for pundits, a fair assessment would be that he may face bigger obstacles in getting his team ready to play this season. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of the season. Furthermore, Houston’s 10-6 regular season record was deceptive of a team that was both outscored and outgained by their opponents during the regular season. The Texans survived +5 net close victories decided by one-scoring possession last year. They only held a lead for just over 37% of their games last year as well.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 appearances on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (235) plus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (236). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (0-0) returns fifteen starters from last year’s hard-luck 2-10 team. Southern Mississippi (0-0) returns eleven starters from last year’s team that finished 7-6 after losing to Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl by a 30-13 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS: Welcome to pandemic college football — and these are two teams that were not able to hold spring practices given COVID-19 concerns. It is always a challenge for players to learn new systems when the offensive and defensive coordinators change — but not to have spring practice to begin making these changes will likely lead to sloppy play. 5th-year head coach Jay Hopson has two new coordinators in offensive coordinator Matt Kubik and defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro. This adjustment is a big challenge for the Golden Eagles. The defense also lost three of their top returning starters from each level of the defense with defensive end Jacques Turner, linebacker Racheem Boothe, and free safety Shannon Showers all decided to transfer after the pandemic hit to alter the college football season. The lack of a crown also takes away a big part of the Southern Miss home-field advantage — this team begins the season on a 21-8 straight-up run at “the Rock.” The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when laying 14.5 to 17 points. The offense returns eight starters led third-year starting quarterback Jack Abraham. Interceptions are a problem for the senior has he threw fifteen picks last year with eleven coming in his final seven games — and that is not an ideal situation for a QB facing hostile competition for the first time with a new coordinator without the benefit of spring practice. Abraham will be without his key weapon from last year in wide receiver Quez Watkins who left early for the NFL after his junior season. South Alabama does have the benefit of continuity with offensive coordinator Kenny Edenfield and defensive coordinator Greg Stewart both back this season. This is a critical season for third-year head coach Steve Campbell who is just 5-19 in two seasons at South Alabama. The Jaguars were better than a two-win team last year. They outgained Nebraska in their opening game but lost due to giving up three touchdowns from the Cornhuskers defense and special teams. They lost to a good Georgia Southern team in overtime. They missed a field goal with 1:08 left in the game in a 2-point loss to Texas State. They outgained UL-Lafayette by a 467 to 391 margin a loss. And they closed out their season strong with an upset victory over Arkansas State in their home finale. Campbell may have found his answer at quarterback in sophomore Desmond Trotter who started the last four games of the season. The offense averaged 26 PPG along with 409 YPG under Trotter which was big improvements over the 14.6 PPG and 290.4 total YPG they were averaging in their first eight games. The defense returns six of the top eight tacklers from last season. Campbell also brought in eight junior college transfers including three from his former coaching location at Mississippi Gulf Coast who won the national junior college championship last season. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games in the first half of the season as an underdog. The Jaguars have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 14.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: South Alabama has a big edge in continuity from last year — and I do not think the gap between these two teams was a large as the point spread suggests. Southern Miss has lost their last four home openers when hosting an FBS opponent. 10* CFB South Alabama-Southern Miss CBS Sports Network Special with the South Alabama Jaguars (235) plus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (236). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Frankly, I began to consider Kansas City a team of destiny when they rallied from their 24-0 deficit to Houston to win that game by a 51-31 score in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. With New England losing to the Titans that weekend, it just looked like the seas were beginning to part for head coach Andy Reid to finally win his first Super Bowl after long being considered one of the dean’s of NFL coaches. Reid has led his teams to victory in twenty-one of their last twenty-four games after a bye week with his teams also posting a 19-9 ATS record after a bye week in his coaching career. After everything went as I expected in both Conference Championship Games, I was prepared to officially endorse the Chiefs in this game — but I decided to wait to watch the line movement for a few days while also clearing my head to help ensure I was not succumbing to confirmation bias. The best argument for the San Francisco side of the equation relates to the success of underdogs in the Super Bowl coming in with the better defense. So I looked at the Chiefs record against Top-Ten defenses (as decided by the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders). Kansas City faced three top-seven defenses this season: at New England (#4th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Minnesota (#7th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Baltimore (#2nd in DVOA weighted defense). The Chiefs won all three games with the average score being 27.3-22.3. Furthermore, Kansas City averaged 408.7 YPG in those three games with 288 of those yards coming in the air at a 7.71 Yards-Per-Attempt clip — and those numbers compare pretty favorably to their 29.8 PPG, 383.4 total YPG and 283 passing YPG at a 7.9 YPA season average entering this game. The most telling game seems to be the Chiefs’ 33-28 win against the Ravens since the Baltimore team’s physical presence along with their emphasis on a power rushing attack is similar to the San Francisco formula for success. I then looked at how Kansas City performed against Top-Ten rushing attacks (as defined by DVOA). The Chiefs had five games against Top-Eight rushing offenses according to DVOA. I threw out the loss to Green Bay since that was one of the two games that Patrick Mahomes missed due to injury. Kansas City was 2-2 in those other four games as they defeated the Ravens while losing to Indianapolis and splitting two games with the Titans. The average score in those two games was 28.3 to 26.8 in favor of the Chiefs. And while they allowed 173.3 rushing YPG in those four contests with opposing rushers averaging 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry, that did not stop the Mahomes-led offense to average 440.3 total YPG (almost 60 YPG above their season average). With those past results, I am unpersuaded that the elite 49ers defense nor their ability to effectively run the football will significantly slow down Mahomes and this powerful KC offense. It is hard to then ignore that the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least two in a row by double-digits. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game including those last four situations. San Francisco is riding high after their easy win over the Packers where they raced out to a 24-0 halftime lead. But the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 54 road games after a victory by at least 14 points. Furthermore, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The red flag regarding the outstanding 49ers’ defense is they have tended to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. In looking at their four games against NFC West rivals Seattle and Arizona with Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray along with their game against Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, San Francisco did win just three of those games with the average scoring being 26.2-23.8 (and while that is still a winning margin, it is -9.9 net PPG plummet from their +12.3 PPG net differential for the season). The Niners held the offenses in those five games to 318 YPG which is still very low — but it is also +39 YPG more than their season average. Those quarterbacks completed 67.5% of their 154 combined passes in those games while averaging 192.0 passing YPG which was +22.8 passing YPG above their season average. Perhaps most importantly for this game, the quarterbacks ran for a combined 284 yards in those five games on 43 carries for 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry average while adding 56.8 rushing YPG. What is critical about these rushing numbers is that they are more likely to occur on 3rd and 4th downs and/or in the Red Zone. Mahomes is usually frugal when deciding to run the football — but he did average 15.6 rushing YPG this season on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an area where he may take advantage of the Niners’ outstanding four-man rush. Mahomes will likely also pick on 49ers’ cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon who Pro Football Focus ranks as the 50th of the 95 cornerbacks who had at least 300 snaps this season. Witherspoon has wilted at times this season when his confidence gets shaken while struggling in the Red Zone — and this Chiefs’ offense is loaded with weapons that will preclude the Niners from hiding Witherspoon. The Niners did bench Witherspoon in the playoffs for undrafted free agent Emmanuel Moseley — but at 5’11 and 190-lbs, he is a matchup nightmare against the 6’5 and 260-lb Travis Kelce even if his player was an improvement over Witherspoon. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Once I concluded that the San Francisco defense is not likely to slow down Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense, the edge Kansas City has at quarterback will likely be the difference. Jimmy Garoppolo is a fine QB who has executed quite well on 3rd down and deserves tons of credit for outdueling Drew Brees in the Niners’ 48-46 win in New Orleans. But Garoppolo is still a bit inexperienced in big games when compared to Mahomes who was winning a coin flip away from winning the AFC Championship Game in overtime last year against the Patriots from reaching the Super Bowl. There are also some throws that Garoppolo struggles with as he continues to develop. While it doesn’t mean everything, it does something that head coach Kyle Shanahan asked Garoppolo to throw the ball only 14 times after his bad interception in the NFC Divisional Playoff round game against Minnesota. Frankly, probably every QB in the NFL right now is at a disadvantage to Mahomes. KC also has a decided edge in Special Teams in this game. With the point spread closer to pick ‘em than the hook, look for Superman Mahomes to fulfill what seems to be his destiny while finally codifying Reid in the pantheon of the elite head coaches in NFL history. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The adage is that matchups make prizefights — and I say that matchups also go a long way in assessing whether a game will go Over or Under the Total. Both these teams had Top-Eight scoring offenses and defenses in the regular season. I think it will be the offenses that have the edge for both teams in what should push into a higher scoring game. The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl averaging 283 passing YPG — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 230 passing YPG. Kansas City also allows their opponents to average 351.7 total YPG in their eighteen games this season — and San Francisco has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. The weakness of this Chiefs defense is against the run — even after their seeming improvement over the last eight games of the season, Kansas City ranked 27th in the NFL over that span in Expected Points Allowed per rushing attempt faced. The Chiefs allowed 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry this season — and the Niners have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allowed their opponents to average 4.5 or more YPC. San Francisco has scored 64 combined points in their two playoff games — and they have then played 30 of their last 45 games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The 49ers have also played 13 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has scored at least 26 points in four straight games — and they have played 6 straight games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games. And while the Chiefs have scored 21 and 28 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight contests. Kansas City has won their last five games all by at least 10 points — and they have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by at least 10 points. They are averaging 29.8 PPG when accounting for their two playoff games — but the 49ers best that with their 30.2 PPG scoring average after their two playoff victories. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the Niners average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack, Kansas City has played 7 straight games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are winning at least 75% of their games. San Francisco has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The winner of this game likely scores at least 30 points with both teams likely score at least 24 points one way or another. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and to get my Super Bowl Props Betting Report for my top three prop bets, follow me on Twitter and contact me for this Report as a free courtesy: @FrankSawyer_HS ).

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (311) and the San Francisco 49ers (312). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite. San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a victory at home. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Green Bay has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after winning at least six straight games. The Packers surrendered 375 yards to the Seahawks in the victory — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has a mediocre defense that has been protected by their commitment to running the football. The Packers rank 18th in the NFL by allowing 352.8 total YPG while the analytics used by Football Outsiders rank their defense 15th in the league in DVOA. Green Bay now goes on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They also have played 5 straight games Over the Total in January. The Packers have seen an uptick in their productivity on offense as of late as they have scored 24.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 386.3 total YPG. San Francisco has scored 29.0 PPG over their last three games which is right in line with their 29.9 PPG scoring average this season which is 2nd best in the league. The 49ers raise that mark to 31.8 PPG in their nine games at home this season. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. And in their last 10 games against teams from the NFC, the Over is 7-2-1 for the Niners.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 37-8 victory over the Packers by a 37-8 score. Green Bay could not stop the San Francisco offense in that game with the Niners averaging 7.5 Yards-Per-Play. But Aaron Rodgers may have played his worst game of the season as eh managed only 104 passing yards with the Packers averaging a mere 2.8 YPP. Look for Green Bay’s offense to be much more effective in this rematch in what should be a higher scoring game. 10* NFL Green Bay-San Francisco Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite. Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three games in a row. This Green Bay team has been difficult to figure out when considering that they are being outgained this season. The Packers have seen ten of their opponents win the yardage battle against them which is a hard way to win fourteen of one’s seventeen games. The football analytics community is well behind other sports (most notably, basketball) in appreciating that, while winning or losing close games often is a function of luck (or, better phrased: coin flip situations that can go either way that then have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of the game), there are attributes that help teams win close games. Free throw proficiency helps teams win close games in basketball. Outstanding quarterback play helps teams win close games in football. Aaron Rodgers may have seen his productivity decline since 2016 — but he is still very good in crunch time (and he avoids negative plays like interceptions). So, having said all that regarding my appreciation for this Packers’ team, this is a bad matchup for them. San Francisco controls the clock on offense for 32:01 minutes per game — and Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense. The Niners are 2nd in the NFL by averaging 29.9 PPG — and the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the San Francisco defense holds their opponents to just 5.2 Passing Yards-Per-Attempt, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who do not allow more than 5.2 YPA in the passing game after eight games into the season. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The San Francisco defense flexed their muscles in that game by holding the Vikings to just 147 total yards. The 49ers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last contest. And while their game last week finished well below the 44.5 point total, San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Niners defense ranks 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 281.8 total YPG — and this unit has been fortified with the return of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford from injuries. The 49ers get to host this game in Levi Stadium where they are 7-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is looking to avenge a 37-8 loss at San Francisco back on November 24th. A concern with this Packers team is that they are soft on the offensive and defensive line — and the physical 49ers were able to expose that vulnerability. Maybe (probably). I am persuaded with Green Bay failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they surrendered at least 28 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score. Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I suspect that the Titans are due for a huge emotional letdown after pulling off two straight upset victories. Tennessee has been on the road for three straight weeks — and pulling off three “must-win” games away from home is a very difficult achievement. Asking this team to pull this feat on the road for a fourth consecutive week is simply a bridge too far. As it is, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tennessee has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after pulling off an upset win by at least 14 points on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least three straight games. The formula for success for this team is to run Derrick Henry against the suspect Chiefs run defense. However, that is a plan that will not work if Kansas City takes an early lead which I expect them to do on their home field. Even during their three-game winning streak, Tennessee has been outgained by -33.0 YPG. And in their ten games on the road, the Titans have been outgained by -2.3 net YPG despite their 7-3 record away from home. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Kansas City should build off their momentum from last week as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Chiefs are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Kansas City generated 434 yards of offense against the Houston defense in that win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Chiefs defense did look vulnerable by allowing 442 yards to the Texans. However, Kansas City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Chiefs get to host this game in Arrowhead Stadium where they have outscored their opponents by +6.6 PPG. They have also outscored their last three opponents by +17.7 PPG while putting up 36.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs average 281.1 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG. 20* NFL Tennessee-Kansas City CBS-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog. Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score.

THE SITUATION: The Titans have won three straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tennessee has not allowed more than 14 points in those three victories — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. The Titans defeating the Ravens last week despite surrounding 530 yards of offense. Tennessee allowed 6.02 Yards-Per-Play to Baltimore while giving up 345 passing yards. The Titans have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after giving up at least 6.0 YPP. Now the Titans go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Tennessee defense is perhaps not as good as advertised as they rank 21st in the NFL by allowing 359.5 total YPG. They also surrender 255.0 passing YPG which is 24th in the league — and that is not a good sign when facing this Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes which is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG. Kansas City has won seven straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Chiefs generated 434 yards against the Texans last week — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in all seven of their victories on their hot streak — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games while covering those games as the favorite. The Chiefs host this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and thy have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Chiefs allow 350 YPG this season, the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. Look for Kansas City to exceed the 29.4 PPG scoring average they manage when playing at home with Tennessee playing catch-up and scoring in the 20s. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, January 13th, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (283) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (284) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship game for the second straight season with their 29-23 win over Ohio State on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite. LSU (14-0) joined them earlier that day with their 63-28 blowout win over Oklahoma as a 16.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE CLEMSON PLUS THE POINTS: The various Power Ranking quantitive analytical forecasts for this game have things closer to a pick ‘em — LSU entered the playoffs overvalued and those inclinations were rewarded with their blowout victory over the Sooners. Both semifinals games were an interesting example of how one or two big plays can dramatically swing the balance of the game. Clemson was on the verge of being blown out by the Buckeyes before a targeting penalty was called on a questionable hit on quarterback Trevor Lawrence. That resurrected a dead drive which the Tigers then scored a touchdown to completely reverse the momentum of that game. Oklahoma might have seen the same fortune if an obvious pass interference call was made to sustain an early drive for them — instead, the refs missed it and a frustrated defense was soon called for targeting themselves which not only fueled another LSU touchdown but resulted in an undermanned Sooners’ defense seeing a key defensive back ejected from the game. And the route was on. LSU has now covered the point spread in three straight games after gaining a whopping 532 total yards against an Oklahoma defense missing several key pieces via team suspension and then that in-game ejection. But LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. I am still not sold on this LSU defense that has surrendered 29.3 PPG along with 429.6 total YPG in their seven games away from home. They held their last three opponents to just 15.0 PPG but those games were against a tapped-out Texas A&M team along with an offensively-challenged Georgia group before the Sooners. LSU allowed more than 450 yards in four of their games with Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, and Alabama all scoring at least 28 points against them. Clemson took their first big punch to the mouth this season but got off the mat to defeat an Ohio State team I think is at least as talented as LSU. The quants that measure in-season performance mostly rated Ohio and LSU as the better team — but those quantitative assessments do not take into account anything from last season. Dabo Swinney returned twelve starters from last year’s perfect 15-0 national champion squad including is a phenom at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. I am just not going to hand out any demerits for the Tigers' failure to overly impress the College Football Playoff committee by failing to generate enough style points against teams like Syracuse and North Carolina early in their schedule. Given that Clemson was likely to reach the playoff even if they suffered an early-season loss, it was reasonable for Swinney to prime his team to play their best football in the second half of the season. Clemson has now allowed only 42 combined points in their last three playoff games over the last two seasons. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 bowl games. Clemson has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record including their last seven contests against winners — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Tigers are rarely the underdog — but they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games when getting points. Swinney’s teams at Clemson have also covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 postseason games as an underdog while pulling the upset six times. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: LSU will have a geographical advantage with this game being played 81.3 miles away from their Baton Rouge campus. I just do not assign much value at all to the potential crowd noise that a team may enjoy on a neutral field. The familiar environment along with the routine of being at home play as much (or more) of a role for home-field advantage than potential crowd noise — especially in a dome where the audience cheering and yelling tends to get drowned out. However, I think the championship experience that this Clemson team enjoys over LSU’s players and coaching staff gives them another big edge. 25* CFB National Championship Game *A-List* Special with the Clemson Tigers (283) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers (283) and the LSU Tigers (284). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship game for the second straight season with their 29-23 win over Ohio State on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite. LSU (14-0) joined them earlier that day with their 63-28 blowout win over Oklahoma as a 16.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offenses are getting all the headlines — and most of the bettor’s attention with the Total approaching the 70 threshold — yet I think both defenses of these teams are being under-appreciated. Clemson surrendered 516 yards of offense to Ohio State but it was their ability thwart three Red Zone trips by the Buckeyes in the first half of that showdown which kept the Tigers in that game. After giving up 16 points in the first 22:20 minutes of that game, the Tigers only gave up one final touchdown over the remaining 37:40 minutes of that game. Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venerable is one of the best in the business — keep in mind his ability to make in-game adjustments if LSU racks up the points early in this game. In the Tigers’ last three Championship Games (all with Venerable), Clemson allowed only 7 combined points in the second half while registering nine combined sacks. On paper, this may be a better statistical defense this season than the one that limited Tua Tagovailoa and a potent Alabama offense to just 16 points in last year’s National Championship Game. Last year’s Tigers’ defense allowed touchdowns in 10.8% of their opponent’s possessions while forcing turnovers in 12.1% of their opponent’s possessions and allowing 29.6% of the available yards per drive to their opponent. The 2019 Clemson defense improved on all those numbers against a comparable schedule: they held their opponents to TD drives in just 8.0% of their possessions while forcing a turnover in 18.0% of their drives while allowing only 26.4% of the available yards per drive to their opponent. The Tigers led the country by allowing their opponents to -152 YPG below their season average. LSU will offer a stiff challenge with them averaging 397.2 passing YPG with a 10.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average — but Clemson has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 8.0 YPA and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG. The extra week to prepare for this game should help Venable as well as they have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total with at least two weeks to prepare including seven straight Unders. Clemson has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of at least 75% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +17.0 PPG. LSU is outscoring its opponents by +27.8 PPG after their blowout victory over the Sooners. Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda devised a scheme that limited the explosive Oklahoma offense to just 322 yards of offense. It was key plays early in that game that stalled the Sooners’ offense which put them behind the eight-ball versus the Joe Burrow-Tigers offense. LSU held its last four opponents to 270 total YPG. Even better, after taking out that fourth game against Arkansas, the Tigers held their last three opponents to just 15.0 PPG along with only 259.0 total YPG against three above-average offenses in Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss. LSU did generate 692 total yards against a depleted Oklahoma defense — but they have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have scored at least 37 points in six straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field as a favorite. Clemson has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 14 games in a dome Under the Total. While the field conditions help the speed of the offenses, it also helps the speed of the defenses. It does not take many Red Zone stops to keep the scoring below the number when it is approaching the 70 point range. Try to wait in placing this bet since I suspect the number will keep being pushed up by the betting public. 25* CFB Bowl Total of the Year with National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers (283) and the LSU Tigers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (307) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-5) snapped a two-game losing streak last week with their 17-9 upset win at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (13-3) has won five straight games after they closed out the regular season with a 23-20 win at Detroit as a 13.5-point favorite back on December 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Even with all their injuries at running back and on the offensive line, Seattle generated 382 yards of offense against the solid Eagles defense that had been holding their visitors to just 273.6 YPG before that game. In Russell Wilson, we trust. He completed 18 of 30 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown while adding another 45 yards on the ground. Wilson did not throw an interception in that game either — and his mere 5 interceptions this season on 516 passes for a microscopic 1% interception rate will likely play a big role in this game. How did the Packers win 13 games despite getting outgained in yardage this season? One of the reasons is certainly their +12 net turnover margin — but they are unlikely (don’t jinx it, Sawyer) to enjoys a turnover advantage against this Seahawks’ team that emphasizes minimizing negative risk under head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after gaining at least 300 passing yards in their last game. Seattle is a dangerous underdog given the high level coaching of Carroll and the playmaking of Wilson with that combination leading to an incredible 11-2 mark in one-scoring games (something I do not think is merely a fluke since it is precisely Carroll’s formula for success this season with a somewhat limited roster). The Seahawks is 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Wilson has led his teams at Seattle to a 26-13-2 ATS mark an underdog in his career which includes covering the point spread in ten of these last twelve situations as the dog. Wilson has also seen his team cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games with seven outright upset victories as an underdog getting at least 4 points. The Seahawks are road warriors this season with an 8-1 record away from home while outscoring their home hosts by +4.3 PPG due to their defense allowing just 19.8 PPG. Seattle is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win on the road. The Packers return home to Lambeau Field after playing their last two games on the road — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after playing a game on the road, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games on the road. And while Green Bay has covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Packers were a bit more fortunate to pullout all eight of their games decided by one scoring possession. I do give credit to Aaron Rodgers for that success — the football analytics community is a few laps behind the basketball community in beginning to appreciate that winning close games is not purely an issue of luck. But avoiding bad luck in winning one-possession games is at least somewhat a result of good fortunes. The Pythagorean-calculated win total for Green Bay drops to 9.8 wins. Additionally, the Packers have only defeated one team with a quarterback that led his team to the playoffs — Kirk Cousins. Green Bay defeated Kansas City when Matt Moore was playing for an injured Deshaun Watson while losing by a 34-27 score to Philadelphia and getting blown out by a 37-8 score to San Francisco.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers game failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog. 10* NFL Seattle-Green Bay Fox-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (307) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-5) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 17-9 victory at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (13-3) takes the field again on a five-game winning streak after their 23-20 win at Detroit back on December 29th as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Of course, the outcome of their game last week changes dramatically if Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz does not get concussed by Jadeveon Clowney early in that contest. Wentz threw only four passes for 3 yards before that late hit before giving way to the game but overmatched Josh McCown who began the season coaching high school football. This Seattle defense is 26th in the NFL by allowing 381.6 total YPG. The Seahawks stay on the road for this game where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total. Seattle has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Over is 7-2-1 in the Seahawks’ last 10 games as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road by a field goal or less. They have also played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after winning five games in a row. The Packers went into the locker room trailing by a 17-3 score — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half in their last game. They did end up gaining 432 yards in that game with Aaron Rodgers completing 27 of 55 passes for 323 yards. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after attempting at least 50 passes in their last contest. The Under may be tempting for many bettors with the Packers having played four straight Unders. But Green Bay has played a decisive 52 of their last 83 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. The Seahawks have seen the Over go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. A final word on the weather: the temperature will be in the mid-20s with snow possible in the second half of the game. These are two cold weather teams — with the Total just in the mid-20s, I don’t think the weather changes this game going over the number. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Houston generated 360 yards of offense against the Bills’ defense last week — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. But the Texans also surrendered 425 yards in that contest — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last contest. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are allowing 410.2 total YPG. The Texans have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight games at home.  Kansas City has won its last three games by at least 10 points with them being favored in all three contests. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row by double-digits — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread as the favorite in at least three straight contests. Kansas City got their ground game going against the Chargers by rushing for 162 yards — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). The Chiefs are 5th in the NFL by averaging 28.2 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG — and Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +6.0 PPG. Kansas City has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Houston-Kansas City CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite. Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They should build off the momentum of their six-game winning streak as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. And in their last 7 games after a home win against an AFC West foe, Kansas City has covered the point spread 6 times. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). But the impressive aspect of this Chiefs’ team is the bump in the play of defensive coordinator’s Steve Spagnuolo unit in the second year in his system which has become commonplace after similar results occurred at his previous spots (including with a Super Bowl-winning NY Giants team). Kansas City has held its last six opponents to just 11.5 PPG — and their last three opponents have scored only 9.0 PPG while averaging just 283.7 total YPG. The Chiefs ended the season 8th in the NFL in opponent’s Expected Points Added per play and 7th in opponent’s EPA on pass plays. Kansas City now retains big situational advantages getting an extra week to rest and prepare while staying at home for three weeks. Head coach Andy Ryan has seen his teams cover the point spread in 18 of their 27 games coming off a bye week in his career. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home. And in their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Houston may be due for a letdown as they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Frankly, this is a team that has been carried by Deshaun Watson who is frequently asked to overcome a shaky defense and a head coach in Bill O’Brien who does not always put his team in the best position to succeed given his tactical decisions. The Texans are being outscored this season by -0.5 PPG. They are also being outgained by -26.3 YPG — and this gets worse on the road where they have been outgained by -48.0 net YPG when playing on the road. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Texans have spent much of the season trailing in their games which is very strange for a team that won eleven games in the regular season. And this Houston team has been outscored by a 34-0 score in the first half of their last two playoff games under O’Brien’s command after going into halftime last week at home by a 13-0 score to the Bills. Mahomes will punish this Texans team if they continue to be that anemic in the first half of this one. Now after playing their last two games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the October 13th encounter between these two teams in Arrowhead Stadium as well where the Texans pulled off a 31-24 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss decided by a touchdown or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge from an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (14-2) has won twelve games in a row with their 28-10 upset win at Pittsburgh to end the regular season as a 2-point underdog back on December 29th. Tennessee (10-7) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset victory at New England as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: It was a very emotional victory for head Mike Vrabel who led his Titans team into Foxboro to defeat his former team where he starred as a player. They survived that game despite managing only 272 yards of offense while being outgained by -35 net yards — and remember that the score looks more decisive only because of their pick-six interception return for a touchdown that ended the game. If the Patriots convert a touchdown late in the first half when they were on the 1-yard line rather than settle for a field goal, then the complexion of that game probably changes. Don’t be surprised if this team experiences an emotional letdown after two monster games where they had to defeat Houston on the road to even make the playoffs before knocking off the reigning champions on the road last week. Tennessee benefited from winning the turnover battle in these last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. Derrick Henry has led the way for this team as they have rushed for 245 and 201 yards in these last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Consistency has been a problem for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least two in a row. Tennessee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. This is a very difficult assignment now facing a playoff team on the road for the third consecutive week. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by +15.2 PPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +10 PPG. And while Baltimore leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 28 PPG. The Ravens were an underdog last week with the Steelers because they rested key players including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still scored four touchdowns with Robert Griffin III under center against a good Pittsburgh defense that needed a win along with a Titans loss to reach the playoffs. So here comes a rested Jackson along with Mark Ingram whose injured calf is improving late this week who leads an offense that leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG while ranking 2nd in the league by averaging 407.6 total YPG. What makes this Ravens’ offense so difficult to stop is their ability to play in “13” personnel with one running back and three tight ends who can all catch the ball. While the formation helps a heavy rushing attack, all three of those tight ends can catch the ball while offering Jackson a huge target down the field. Jackson faces a Titans’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL by allowing 255.0 passing YPG. Baltimore also boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack that averages 206.0 rushing YPG. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. But while the Baltimore offense gets most of the credit, don’t sleep on this Ravens defense that is 3rd in the NFL by allowing 17.6 PPG and 4th in the league by giving up only 300.6 total YPG. And since the team acquired Marcus Peters with Jimmy Smith getting healthy again to give the defense two elite cover cornerbacks, the Ravens have boasted the top statistical defense in the NFL in points allowed and yardage allowed. Those two cover corners provide the Ravens the luxury to place eight defenders in the box to slow down Henry rushing out of the backfield.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams from the AFC. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 playoff games under head coach John Harbaugh. Tennessee is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore. 10* NFL Tennessee-Baltimore CBS-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-7) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset victory at New England as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (14-2) has won twelve games in a row with their 28-10 upset win at Pittsburgh to end the regular season as a 2-point underdog back on December 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Baltimore was an underdog in that game with the Steelers since they rested key players including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still scored four touchdowns with Robert Griffin III under center against a good Pittsburgh defense that needed a win along with a Titans loss to reach the playoffs. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. So here comes a rested Jackson along with Mark Ingram whose injured calf is improving late this week who lead an offense that leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG while ranking 2nd in the league by averaging 407.6 total YPG. What makes this Ravens’ offense so difficult to stop is their ability to play in “13” personnel with one running back and three tight ends who can all catch the ball. While the formation helps a heavy rushing attack, all three of those tight ends can catch the ball while offering Jackson a huge target down the field. Jackson faces a Titans’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL by allowing 255.0 passing YPG. Baltimore also boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack that averages 206.0 rushing YPG. The Ravens have rushed for at least 218 yards in three straight games — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. What may score some bettors off the Over is the outstanding defense that Baltimore plays. They limited the Steelers to just 168 total yards on a mere 3.5 Yards-Per-Play average — but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing their last opponent to average more than 3.5 YPP. And while the Ravens have allowed only 25 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Tennessee has played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after an upset victory on the road as an underdog. Derrick Henry battered the Patriots last week as he led a ground game that generated 201 rushing yards — and the Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring 27.7 PPG while averaging 378.7 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill only threw the ball 15 times last week in the win against the Patriots — but he should not be underestimated to move the football in the air in this contest. Since taking over as the starting quarterback in Week Seven, Tannehill led the NFL for the rest of the regular season by averaging 6.94 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and he was tied for 2nd in touchdowns and 6th in QBR. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: While Tennessee head coach would love to slow this game down by running Henry and burning time off the clock, this strategy is neutralized if Baltimore races out to a big lead — and the Ravens are averaging 17.7 PPG in the first half this season. The Titans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC — and the Ravens have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against fellow AFC foes. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after an upset victory. Minnesota has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a narrow victory by 6 points or less. The Vikings have allowed at least 20 points in three straight games so being competitive will likely require them scoring into the 20s as well in this game. Minnesota does average 26.4 PPG on the road while averaging 374.2 YPG in those nine contests. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. QB Kirk Cousins should certainly be bursting with confidence after leading his team to a playoff victory with a winning overtime touchdown drive that thwarted the Saints' ability to get Drew Brees back on the field. Now they face a Niners team that is outscoring their opponents by +10.5 PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +10.0 PPG. And while the 49ers average 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their passing attack, Minnesota has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after eight games into the season against opponents that average at least 7.5 YPA. San Francisco generated 398 yards two weeks ago in their victory over the Seahawks — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the 49ers have scored 60 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after they scored at least 25 points in two straight games. San Francisco has also played 23 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a bye week. The Niners did activate linebacker Kwon Alexander this week after he has been out with a chest injury. They had been holding their opponents to only 11 PPG in their first seven games before that injury — but they have allowed at least 25 points in six of their last nine games without him. It remains unclear how effective Alexander will be in his return with head coach Kyle Shanahan indicating that he will not be asked to embark in full-time duty for this game. San Francisco has allowed its last three opponents to score 27.0 PPG while averaging 344.3 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at home — and the Over is also 11-5-1 in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points, San Francisco has played 8 of these games Over the Total. 10* NFL Minnesota-San Francisco NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: That was a huge emotional victory for tat Vikings team on the road and particularly for Kirk Cousins who may have permanently removed the proverbial money that has been on his back regarding his failure to step up in big games. Cousins was solid but not spectacular against the Saints by completing 19 of 31 passes for 242 yards with a touchdown pass. But this situation is eerily similar to Minnesota’s miracle victory over New Orleans in the playoffs two years ago under head coach Mike Zimmer which was then followed up by them being completely flat on the road to another number one seed in the NFC at Philadelphia with the Eagles crushing them by a 38-7 score. As it is, the Vikings have only covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Frankly, I don’t think Minnesota wins that game if Drew Brees does commit that rare fumble that he suffered in what looked like a go-ahead drive midway through the 4th quarter. And then winning the coin flip in overtime helped tremendously as the Vikings then scored a touchdown to negate Brees get another chance with the football. Despite the victory, Minnesota is still only scoring 18.3 PPG over their last three contests while averaging just 267.0 total YPG over that span which is far below their 25.4 PPG and 353.5 total YPG season average. They did get running back Dalvin Cook back last week after he took the last couple of games off to close out the regular season — but he is still averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry in his last seven games. The Vikings wide receivers are also less than 100% this week with Stefan Diggs dealing with an illness and Adam Thielen suffering an ankle injury that may slow him down. These are not great developments for a team that is used to playing on artificial turf as they did again last week. But when playing on grass as will be the case in Levi Stadium, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games. San Francisco secured their bye week and home field throughout the NFC playoffs with their clutch victory on the road against the Seahawks. The 49ers held Seattle scoreless in the first half of that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was very sharp in that game as he completed 18 of 22 passes for 285 yards while leading an offense that generated 398 total yards. The Niners are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. San Francisco has won five of their last seven games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The 49ers are 2nd in the league by scoring 29.9 PPG — and that number rises to 32.4 PPG at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +12.8 PPG and outgained their guests by +108.3 net YPG. San Francisco is also 2nd in the NFL by limiting their opponents to only 281.8 total YPG — and they will be getting the heart and soul of their defense back for this game in Kwon Alexander who has missed half the season with his chest injury.

FINAL TAKE: Teams unfamiliar with this Niners team has struggled as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-divisional opponents. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Minnesota’s victory last week was just their first win on the road against a team with a winning record all season. It was also just their first playoff win on the road since 2004. Yet the Vikings have still failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (8-5) has won six of their last seven games after winning the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 26-21 upset victory over Central Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog. Lafayette (10-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 45-38 loss at Appalachian State as a 5-point underdog. This game is being played at Land Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after pulling off an upset win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a victory over a Mid-American Conference rival. The RedHawks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. And in their last 26 games after winning four or five of their last six games, Miami has covered the point spread in 20 of these contests. This team is better than their numbers suggest as they endured a brutal non-conference schedule that skewed their statistics with games at Ohio State, Iowa, and Cincinnati. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Lafayette has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a narrow loss by 7 points or less against a Sun Belt Conference opponent. The Ragin’ Cajuns are led by junior quarterback Levi Lewis who led an offense that completed 64.7% of their passes — but the RedHawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who complete at least 62% of his passes. Louisiana has failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60% to 75% range. And while the Ragin’ Cajuns have scored at least 31 points in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in their last 4 games when playing on a neutral field. Look for the RedHawks to keep this game closer than expected as a double-digit underdog. 10* CFB Lending Tree Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Lending Tree Bowl between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (8-5) has won six of their last seven games after winning the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 26-21 upset victory over Central Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog. Lafayette (10-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 45-38 loss at Appalachian State as a 5-point underdog. This game is being played at Land Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a pint spread victory. Miami (OH) has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the RedHawks have only forced one turnover in each of their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Miami has a better defense than their numbers suggest — those statistics are skewed a bit from a difficult non-conference schedule that included road games at Ohio State, Iowa, and Cincinnati. The RedHawks will look to run the ball to control the Time of Possession — they averaged 38 rushing attempts per game while running on over 63% of their offensive snaps. But Miami averages only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking just 122nd in the nation by averaging 305.9 total YPG. The RedHawks average -84 YPG below their opponent’s season defensive average. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a good defense that allowed only 19.9 PPG which was 20th best in the nation. It will be particularly difficult for freshman quarterback Brett Gabbert to throw on the Lafayette defense that is 16th in the nation by allowing just 193.8 passing YPG. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. Lafayette did generate 513 yards of offense in their loss to the Mountaineers — but they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Ragin’ Cajuns have scored at least 31 points in seven straight games — but they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in four straight contests. Lafayette has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored in the 10.5 to 21 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. With the RedHawks scoring only 18.5 PPG when away from home, they will only need to slow down the Ragin’ Cajuns offense a bit to keep this game below the number. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Lending Tree Bowl between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (147) and the Philadelphia Eagles (148). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-21 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 52 of their last 74 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Philly is riddled with injuries at wide receiver and their offensive line — and they will be without their best linemen in Lane Johnson for this game along with guard Brandon Books who was put onto Injured Reserve earlier this week. The Eagles have resorted to sinking-and-dunking their way to manufacture yardage - but this should be a bit easier to prepare for in the playoffs given the structural weaknesses of this Philadelphia offense at this points. The Eagles are scoring only 21.0 PPG — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total. Philadelphia has also played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as the dog. Additionally, Philly has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs — and the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games in the playoffs. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their last two games at home. Pete Carroll’s teams have also played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total after aa narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also marred by injuries to their offense with their top three running backs out the season along with their best offensive lineman in left tackle Duane Brown. Seattle has scored only 21.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG which is -4.0 PPG and -41.1 YPG below their season average. The Seahawks have started slow in their last two games as well — they trailed by a 17-7 score at home to Arizona two weeks ago before failing to score in the first half last week to the 49ers. Carroll’s teams have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of two straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a favorite. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a November 24th meeting between these two teams in Philadelphia where the Seahawks won by a 17-9 score in windy conditions. It will be windy in this game as well which limited Wilson’s deep passing game the first time around. These two teams have now played 4 straight Unders. 10* NFL Seattle-Philadelphia NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (147) and the Philadelphia Eagles (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite. Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams are hit hard by injuries. The good news for Philadelphia is that it looks like tight end Zach Ertz, running back Miles Sanders, and cornerback Jalen Mills will take the field today. Yet even relying on former practice squad, head coach Doug Pederson and his offensive coaching staff have been making things work. Over their last three games, the Eagles have scored 29.3 PPG along with averaging 415.3 total YPG. The foundation has been quarterback Carson Wentz who has asserted himself as the leader of this team. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory. The coaching staff has been forced to be innovative with all their injuries but they are finding ways to move the football. For example, since Week Fourteen, Wentz has completed 28 of his 31 screen passes for 237 yards which is the most in the NFL over that span. Pederson is not stranger to coaching his team up in the playoffs as an underdog — over the last three seasons, he has lead his team to four upset wins in five playoff games when getting the points. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 playoff games as the underdog. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games in January. Furthermore, Philadelphia has held their eight visitors to just 16.7 PPG along with only 273.6 total YPG which has helped them cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Seattle has been the beneficiary of turnover luck and mossed field goal luck which has helped them overcome getting outgained in yardage this season. And while the Seahawks are 7-1 on the road this year, they are being outgained by -6.8 net YPG overall in those games. Seattle has lost their original top three running backs on their depth chart to injury. Left tackle Duane Brown is also out with his biceps injury which takes away the most effective offensive lineman from a unit that ranks just 24th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The Seahawks are being outgained by -74.7 net YPG over their last three games given a slowed-down offense that is scoring only 21.3 PPG while averaging 333.3 total YPG during that span. Russell Wilson’s potential MVP campaign has waned in the second half of the season. After posting 100+ QB Ratings in eight of his first nine games, Wilson has registered just one game earning a QBR of 100 or better over his last seven starts. Seattle did not score in the first half last week against the 49ers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread after failing to score at least a field goal in the first half of their last game. They also are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against NFC opponents. And in their last 7 games in the playoffs, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Seattle’s 17-9 victory in Philly back on November 24th. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when looking to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score at least 14 points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (146) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (145). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Vikings have not won on the road in the playoffs since 2004 — and they have lost eleven of their last thirteen road games in the playoffs going back to 1988. And with zero wins on the road against a team that finished with a winning record this season, I don’t think this team has the confidence to hang with the Saints when playing in the Big Easy in what will be a very energetic environment. A blind-spot with analytics in sports across the board is the tendency to treat every statistical moment as the same. But as we saw yesterday when the Buffalo Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen went on tilt late in that game where the urgency of the moment compelled him to make ill-advised backward pitches. The pressure of the playoffs impacts even professional athletes (ask the Houston Rockets when they were missing 28 3-pointers in a row in a Game Seven against Golden State). Maybe if Kirk Cousins had not gone 12 of 21 for just 126 yards in a critical game at home against Green Bay two weeks ago, I would feel better about his progression as a quarterback. Cousins clearly feels the pressure of leading this team that has Super Bowl talent at most other positions. I just cannot get over numbers like this: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record; they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. They are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 261.0 total YPG over that span. They are also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat for this offense has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when facing the Saints. Look for the Saints to pull away to cover this point spread. 10* NFL Minnesota-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (146) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. And while Minnesota lost those two games despite being at home, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing their last two games at home. Now the Vikings go back on the road where they are scoring 26.5 PPG while averaging 375.7 total YPG which is +22.2 net YPG above their season average. Minnesota has played 5 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The good news for the Vikings is that they expect to get back running back Dalvin Cook for this game after missing time (and rested) with his shoulder injury. But Minnesota may be forced to abandon the run game if they fall behind by multiple scores in this contest. The Vikings have been vulnerable in their pass coverage with opposing quarterbacks posting a Passer Rating of 99.7 with clean pockets which was just 16th in the league. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes has been torched this season with opposing quarterbacks completing 80% of their passes against them. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. But the defense has been a concern for this team since they put defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on Injured Reserve. After ranking 7th in the NFL with 29.3% pressure the quarterback rate, that number has dropped to just a 23.7% QB pressure rate over their last three games without both players which is 18th in the league. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least four touchdowns over an NFC South rival — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games at home. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total. New Orleans is clicking on offense — but look for the Vikings to resort to their passing game to keep up. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (144) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (143). THE SITUATION: New England (12-4) looks to rebound from their 27-24 upset loss to Miami at home last week as a 17.5-point favorite. Tennessee (9-7) clinched the final spot in the AFC playoffs last Sunday with their 35-14 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England blew the opportunity to claim the second seed in the AFC playoffs last week which would not only have given them this week off but would have also ensured they played at home next week. The Patriots have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss to an AFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. The Dolphins Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 326 yards to lead his team to the upset victory — but New England has then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. This remains an outstanding Patriots defense that leads the NFL by allowing only 14.1 PPG and just 275.9 total YPG. Frankly, I think the rumors of the reigning Super Bowl champions have been overly exaggerated. Losing home field advantage certainly does not help their chances. And the Patriots have been challenged on offense without Rob Gronkowski and a viable deep threat (Antonio Brown fit that role perfectly) which was then made worse with injuries to their offensive line and at fullback which hurt their running game. Even with all these issues, New England is scoring 27.3 PPG over their last three games. The Patriots gained 352 yards against the Dolphins defense last week — and they are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England was 6-2 at home this season where they outscored their guests by +10.2 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +82.1 net YPG. The Patriots are 42-20-3 ATS in their last 65 games at home — and they are 17-8-3 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games in the playoffs. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Ryan Tannehill led the Tennessee offense to 467 yards of offense last week — but they are then 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans are also 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Tannehill has been a revelation for this Tennessee team — but Bill Belichick and the Patriots coaching staff are very familiar with him after facing him twice a year during his time in Miami. New England won all six of their games against Tannehill as a starter when playing the Dolphins with just five touchdown passes and ten interceptions while posting a low 70 Passer Rating in those six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Patriots. And while New England is typically laying more than a touchdown when playing at home, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 25* AFC Playoff Wildcard Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (144) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (143) and the New England Patriots (144). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-7) clinched the final spot in the AFC playoffs last Sunday with their 35-14 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite. New England (12-4) looks to rebound from their 27-24 upset loss to Miami at home last week as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The fortunes of this Tennessee team changed in Week Seven when head coach Matt Vrabel turned to Ryan Tannehill as his starting quarterback. Since that game, Tannehill has led an offense that averages 6.94 Yards-Per-Play which is best in the NFL over that span. The Titans also averaged 406.2 total YPG since Tannehill became the starting quarterback which was 3rd best in the league. Tannehill’s Passer Rating of 117.5 leads the NFL. Tennessee stays on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Titans have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Titans have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog. New England surrendered 389 yards to the Dolphins in their losing effort last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots have allowed 324.0 total YPG over their last three games which is +49.1 net YPG above their season average. New England has also scored a healthy 27.3 PPG over their last three games.  Additionally, the Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. Moving forward, New England has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 9 of their last 10 playoff games Over the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against AFC opponents — and the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AFC foes. Additionally, these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total when playing in Foxborough. 10* NFL Tennessee-New England CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (143) and the New England Patriots (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (141) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. While Houston had nothing to play for in that game, the fact that they surrendered 245 rushing yards to the Titans is a significant cause for concern. The Texans are allowing 121.1 rushing YPG which is 25th in the league — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Houston stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a favorite. Houston is being outscored and outgained by their visitors when playing at home — and they are also being outscored and outgained overall this season given their suspect defense that is just 28th in the league by allowing 388.3 total YPG. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Buffalo rested quarterback Josh Allen and some of their key starters in their game with the Jets with them locked-in as the 5th seed in the AFC playoffs. The Bills have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Buffalo has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. The weakness of this team is with Allen in the passing game — but he has been more effective on the road this season. He leads an offense that is scoring 21.5 PPG while averaging 340.5 total YPG which are both better than their overall season marks. The Bills were 6-2 on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.9 PPG. Buffalo is 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they are also 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: While Deshaun Watson is the better quarterback in this game, the best unit in this contest belongs to the Bills’ defense. Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Buffalo-Houston ABC-TV Special with the Buffalo Bills (141) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. But the issue for this team is scoring as they average just 19.6 PPG — and they have managed to score only 13.3 PPG in their last three games. The Bills go on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, Houston has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Houston has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents — and the Texans have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (278) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (277) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-5) enters this bowl game off two straight losses after their 34-17 loss at FAU on November 30th as an 8-point underdog. Tulane (6-6) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 37-20 loss at SMU as a 3-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Southern Mississippi has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Golden Eagles lost that game with the Owls due to quarterback Jack Abraham throwing for turnovers which accounted for their -4 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after suffering a -4 or worse net turnover margin. Look for Abraham to respond with a strong effort after playing his worst game of the season. Abraham completed 67.5% of his passes for 3329 passing yards while averaging 8.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Southern Miss did hold Florida Atlantic to just 156 passing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Golden Eagles were solid when playing away from home this season where they were only outgained by -2.4 net YPG. Overall, Southern Miss outgained their twelve opponents by +59.7 net YPG. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss to an American Athletic Conference rival. And while they have played three straight Unders, the Green Wave have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least three straight Unders. Tulane was a much better home team this season where they won five of their six games. But the Green Wave were 1-5 on the road where they were outscored by -11.2 PPG. Tulane also scored just 24.0 PPG over their final three games of the regular season which was -9.3 PPG below their season average. Head coach Willie Fritz has his team deploy a spread triple option that he brought over from his tenure at Georgia Southern — but the Golden Eagles will benefit from the extra time to prepare for this specific offense in this bowl game. As it is, it has been tough to run on this Southern Miss team as they held their opponents to averaging just 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry which translated into 111.8 rushing YPG which was 14th lowest in the nation. And while the Golden Eagles average 8.8 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt overall this season, the Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games against opponents that average at least 8.5 YPA. Furthermore, Tulane is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: The Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against opponents with a winning percentage in the 51% to 60% percent range. 10* CFB Armed Forces Bowl ESPN Special with the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (278) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (276) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (275) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. THE SITUATION: Nevada (7-5) looks to bounce-back from their 33-30 upset loss to UNLV on November 30th as a 6.5-point favorite. Ohio (6-6) has won two games in a row with their 52-3 win over Akron as a 27.5-point favorite on November 26th. This game is played on Boise State’s blue home field.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a win by at least 20 points. Ohio has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while the Bobcats generated 603 yards of offense against the Zips, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Ohio has been an unreliable favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when laying the points. Nevada is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Wolf Pack are getting better play from their freshman quarterback Carson Strong who completed 100 of 151 passes over the last month of the season for 951 yards. The Nevada defense also improved as the season went on as they allowed only 24.7 PPG along with 350.7 total YPG which was -7.4 PPG and -47.0 net YPG below their season average. The Wolf Pack are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: The Nevada defense will be undermanned with suspensions removing three of their top ten tacklers. But as an underdog in the touchdown range, the Wolf Pack should still keep this game close. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potato Bowl with the Nevada Wolf Pack (276) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (288) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (287) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to end the season with their 44-41 win in overtime at Purdue on November 30th as a 7-point favorite. Tennessee (8-4) has won five in a row after their 28-10 win over Vanderbilt as a 24-point favorite on November 30th as a 24-point favorite. This game is being played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Hoosiers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win on the road against a conference rival. And while Indiana has won five of their last seven games, Indiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Some bettors have been scared off this Hoosiers team because they have not defeated a team with more than five victories this season — but all five of their losses were against teams that were ranked at the time. Indiana has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning three straight games against SEC rivals. The Volunteers outgained the Commodores by +138 net yards in their last game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. And while Tennessee had covered the point spread in six straight games before their contest with Vanderbilt, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Volunteers have played four straight Unders — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after playing at least three straight Unders. Furthermore, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC. And in their last 13 games as the favorite, the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will be without their top wide receiver and emotional leader of the team in Javan Jennings who will be suspended for the first half of this game. Expect a close one where the Hoosiers have the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* CFB Gator Bowl ESPN Special with the Indiana Hoosiers (288) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (269) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (270) in the Sugar Bowl. THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-2) enters this bowl game coming off a 30-23 loss to Oklahoma as a 9-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game back on December 7th. Georgia (11-2) comes off a 37-10 loss to LSU on December 7th as a 7.5-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. This game is being played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The reports I am getting from the Big Easy is that this Georgia team has shown little from their body language and attitude since arriving for this bowl game that they have recovered from that devastating loss to the Tigers. The Bulldogs are a peculiar football program in that they perceive themselves as a true blue blood despite not having the historical resume to back up that claim. This is a team that expected to be in the College Football Playoff after making the National Championship Game two years ago. After losing in the SEC Championship Game last season, they were completing unmotivated to play Texas in last year’s Sugar Bowl and were upset by a mediocre Longhorns team by a 28-21 score. My initial reaction to their opportunity to return to New Orleans for another Sugar Bowl this season was that this was their chance for redemption. But the attrition rate of players unable or unwilling to play in this game speaks loudly about the importance (or lack thereof) to play this Baylor team that was 1-11 last year. Georgia is missing three starters on their offensive line with two skipping the game for the NFL and one player suspended due to academics. The Bulldogs are also thin at wide receiver with their star, Lawrence Cager, likely out with the ankle injury that kept him out for the previous two games, along with Dominick Black with a torn ACL that he suffered versus LSU. Defensive tackle Tyler Clark along with running back Brian Herrien did not make the trip. And running back D’Andre Swift is questionable with the bruised shoulder he suffered against Georgia Tech that limited him to five snaps against LSU. For a team that was already lacking elite talent at the skill positions, these losses are devastating. The Bulldogs have averaged just 348.7 total YPG over their last three games which is -61.5 net YPG below their season average. Junior quarterback Jake Fromm may be hiding an injury himself — or he simply is suffering from a lack of confidence that has worsened with the lack of help from his teammates. After being the highest-graded quarterback by Pro Football Focus after the first six weeks of the season, Fromm has completed only 47% of his passes over his last five games. The defense has played at an elite level for most of the season — but they were exposed by LSU who generated 481 yards against them QB Joe Burrow passing for 349 yards. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. The Bulldogs have not had more than one takeaway in eight games as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not getting more than one turnover in five straight contests. This is not a good matchup for Georgia either. The Bears average 6.4 Yards-Per-Play along with averaging 6.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have both failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams that average at least 4.75 YPC but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against opponents who average at least 5.9 YPP. After enduring a 1-11 season last year, this Baylor team is excited with this opportunity to play in prime-time in a New Year’s Six Bowl game. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And while the Bears managed only 265 total yards against the Sooners, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Oklahoma outgained Baylor by -168 net yards — but Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after being outgained by at least -125 yards. The Bears have an outstanding pass rush which will challenge this Bulldogs’ offensive line that will be elevating three backups to starting positions. Baylor has 43 sacks this season and PFF ranks their pass rush as the 14th best in the nation. The Bears also generated 23 sacks rushing just three players which leaves eight defenders against the pass in those situations. Moving forward, Baylor has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games as an underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in 8 straight games with five outright upset victories in that span. And head coach Matt Rhule has seen his teams cover the point spread in 34 of the last 48 games he has coached as the dog while leading his team to sixteen upset wins. 10* CFB Sugar Bowl ESPN Special with the Baylor Bears (269) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (267) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (268) in the Rose Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (10-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 7th with their 34-21 loss to Ohio State. Oregon (11-2) has won their last two games with their 37-15 upset win over Utah as a 6.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 6th. The Rose Bowl is played in Pasadena, California.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and the Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten. 10* CFB Rose Bowl ESPN Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (267) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Citrus Bowl between the Michigan Wolverines (263) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (264). THE SITUATION: Michigan (9-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on November 30th with their 56-27 loss at home to Ohio State as a 9-point underdog. Alabama (10-2) looks to rebound from their 48-45 upset loss at Auburn as a 3.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolverines may have a defense ranked 7th in the nation by allowing just 292.8 total YPG but they were exposed by the Buckeyes who torched them for 577 yards of offense. Michigan has played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Wolverines have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. This Michigan offense did begin to click in the second half of their game at Penn State under first-year offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. The Wolverines have scored 36.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 438.7 total YPG which is +36.6 YPG above their season average. Michigan has played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog. Alabama generated 515 yards of offense in their loss to the Tigers with quarterback Mac Jones completed 26 of 39 passes for 335 yards with four touchdown passes and another 32 yards rushing. Frankly, the Tide should have defeated Auburn that day (our CFB Game of the Year, dammit) with a comedy of officiating errors, fluke plays and two defensive touchdowns by the Tigers all playing crucial roles in the loss. This Alabama remains loaded even without Tua Tagovailoa healthy — Jones led this offense just fine. The Over is 8-3-1 in the Tide’s last 12 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Alabama has also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Furthermore, the Over is 21-7-2 in the Tide’s last 30 games played on a neutral field as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has played 7 of their last 8 bowl games Over the Total. Michigan has played 4 straight bowl games Over the Total. Expect a higher scoring game. 10* CFB Citrus Bowl ABC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the Citrus Bowl between the Michigan Wolverines (263) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (265) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (266) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-17 loss to Wisconsin as a 3-point underdog on November 30th. Auburn (9-3) has won two straight games after their 48-45 upset win over Alabama as a 3.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for the Tigers to suffer from the hangover of their huge win over their arch rivals in the Iron Bowl. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win at home over an SEC rival. And while the Tigers have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Auburn has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Minnesota has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Moving forward, Minnesota is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams outside the Big Ten.

FINAL TAKE: This Golden Gophers team has been a feisty underdog under head coach P.J.Fleck. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a dog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. 10* CFB Outback Bowl ESPN Special with Minnesota Golden Gophers (265) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (266) in the Outback Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (262) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (261) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Utah (11-2) looks to pick themselves off the after laying the proverbial egg in the Pac-12 Championship Game in their 37-15 upset loss to Oregon on December 6th. Texas (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season with their 49-24 win over Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should respond with a strong effort with this high-profile game on New Year’s Eve to remove the stink from their embarrassing loss to the Ducks. The Utes have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Utah has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering an upset loss. The Utes were serious contenders to make the College Football Playoff because they a legitimate outstanding team this season. They lead the nation by allowing only 256.2 total YPG — and they are 4th in the nation by only giving up 13.2 PPG. The offense is as prolific as any unit in the Kyle Whittingham era as they are 25th in the FBS by scoring 34.0 PPG. Senior quarterback Ty Huntley if 5th in the FBS in Passing Efficiency while proving his offense with a threat with his legs. Senior running back Zack Moss averages 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Utah has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Texas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Expectations were sky-high for this team after last year’s bowl game where the Longhorns upset Georgia. In hindsight, more attention should have been paid that the Bulldogs were completely disinterested in that game after failing to make the College Football Playoff before seeing a handful of their best players skip the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Head coach Tom Herman has been very dangerous when motivating his team when they are playing the role of the underdog — his teams are 11-5 ATS with ten upset victories when getting the points. But he seems to be using this game entirely to prepare for an important 2020 season as he sacked both his offensive coordinator Tim Beck and his defensive coordinator Todd Orlando. This lack of continuity will be very difficult for his team to overcome even with a few extra weeks to prepare. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field wit the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Texas has been fortunate with turnovers to close out their regular season as well as they have only committed two turnovers (in separate games) over their last four contests. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing four straight games where they did not commit more than one turnover.

FINAL TAKE: I would worry about some teams not taking this bowl game seriously after suffering the emotional letdown of not making the College Football Playoff — but not a Whittingham-coached team. Whittingham is 11-2 straight-up in bowl games — and the Utes have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 bowl games. The route may be on … lay the points. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Utah Utes (262) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (260) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Georgia State (7-5) stumbles into this bowl game having lost three of their last four games after their 38-10 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 30th. Wyoming (7-5) has also lost three of their last four games with their 20-6 loss at the Air Force as a 13.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Tuscon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Panthers offense has been slowed down since quarterback Dan Ellington suffered a partially torn ACL in the ninth game of the season against Louisiana-Monroe. Ellington has played through the injury but it limited his mobility. The month off since their loss to the Eagles should help the healing in the process — but Ellington is going to have to defeat the Cowboys with his passing. Ellington did have two 300-yard passing games this season en route to his 2291 passing yards — and he threw 21 touchdown passes. Wyoming has a great defense but they were vulnerable against the pass as they surrendered 265.1 passing YPG which was 112th in the nation. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams that allowed at least 250 passing YPG. The Panthers also need to play better on defense after allowing Georgia Southern to rush for 279 yards — but they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Wyoming managed only 225 total yards in their loss to the Falcons in their last game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Wyoming has their own issues at QB after redshirt freshman Sean Chambers suffered a season-ending knee injury. Chambers was effective with his legs as he averaged 6.7 YPC which accounted for 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore Tyler Vander Waal was ineffective in his absence under center with things being so bad that he decided to enter the transfer portal after the Air Force game. That leaves little-used freshman Levi Williams as the Cowboys’ quarterback for this game. Wyoming has scored only 14.7 PPG while averaging just 280.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Cowboys were a much better team at home where they were 6-1 in the high altitude air in Laramie. But this team was just 1-5 on the road where they only scored 18.3 PPG while averaging only 294.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. A Georgia State team focused on passing the football may be a blessing in disguise for them because they won four of their five games when Ellington passed for at least 200 yards. 10* CFB Arizona Bowl CBS Sports Network Special with the Georgia State Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers (259) and the Wyoming Cowboys (260). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (7-5) stumbles into this bowl game having lost three of their last four games after their 38-10 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 30th. Wyoming (7-5) has also lost three of their last four games with their 20-6 loss at the Air Force as a 13.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Tuscon.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points.  And while Georgia State did not commit a turnover in their loss to the Eagles, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the total after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Panthers’ offense slowed down after the injury to quarterback Dan Ellington during the ninth game of the season. He had rushed for 603 yards through the first-half of that game against Louisiana-Monroe before suffering what turned out to be a torn ACL. In his last three starts, Ellington rushed for -5 yards overall which dramatically impacted the Georgia State offense as they averaged only 157 rushing YPG over their last final three games which was a far cry from their 275 rushing YPG before his injury. Over their last three games, the Panthers scored only 21.7 PPG while averaging just 332.7 total YPG with both those numbers -10.7 PPG and -112.2 total YPG below their season average. Georgia State also scored only 25.7 PPG while averaging 401.5 total YPG away from home which was -6.7 PPG and -45.4 YPG below their season average. The Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. Georgia State has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. The Panthers will have difficulties moving the ball against this Cowboys defense the ranks 11th in the nation by allowing only 17.8 PPG. Wyoming has an outstanding run defense that allows only 99.4 rushing YPG which is 6th in the FBS. They held their opponents to -73 YPG below their season average on offense this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 330.7 YPG. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Cowboys’ last 27 games after a loss — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Wyoming has seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they have played 7 straight Unders after failing to score at least 20 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 11 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Wyoming has their own issues at QB after redshirt freshman Sean Chambers suffered a season-ending knee injury. Chambers was effective with his legs as he averaged 6.7 YPC which accounted for 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore Tyler Vander Waal was ineffective in his absence under center with things being so bad that he decided to enter the transfer portal after the Air Force game. That leaves little-used freshman Levi Williams as the Cowboys’ quarterback for this game. Wyoming has scored only 14.7 PPG while averaging just 280.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Cowboys were a much better team at home where they were 6-1 in the high altitude air in Laramie. But this team was just 1-5 on the road where they only scored 18.3 PPG while averaging only 294.5 total YPG. They managed just 225 yards of offense between Vander Waal and Williams against the Falcons — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming’s main source of offense will be behind running back Xavavian Valladay who rushed for 1061 yards this season. Between Valladay’s running and the Cowboys’ defense, this game should move quickly. The Under is 18-7-1 in Wyoming’s last 26 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers (259) and the Wyoming Cowboys (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (258) minus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (257) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Navy (10-2) has won their last three games after their 31-7 triumph over Army as an 11.5-point favorite on December 14th. Kansas State (8-4) has won their last two games after their 27-17 upset victory over Iowa State as a 4-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Memphis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN MINUS THE POINTS: Navy is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. The Midshipmen should not be taken lightly in bowl games as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight bowl game appearances. One of the reasons for this success is that the spread triple option travels — Navy scored 38.5 PPG in their six road games while averaging 446.5 total YPG in those contests. The Midshipmen also play very solid defense — they ranked 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 326.2 total YPG. Navy held their opponents to -89 YPG below their opponent’s season average. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December — and they are 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. They have outscored their last three opponents by +15.4 net PPG. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as the favorite. Kansas State may be due for a letdown as they have registered two straight upset victories with a 30-27 win at Texas Tech as a 2-point dog preceding their upset victory over the Cyclones to close out the regular season. But that was 31 days ago which risks them being rusty against an opponent that played a very big game for them two weeks ago. The Wildcats can struggle to move the football as they are just 93rd in the nation by averaging 374.7 total YPG. Kansas State was also outgained in their five road games by -93.6 net YPG. The Wildcats averaged just 332.0 total YPG away from home which was -42.7 net YPG below their season average — and they surrendered 425.6 YPG on the road which was -61.6 YPG more than they allowed overall this season. Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The service academies have won ten of their last twelve bowl games. While it would be foolish to just zombie bet on Army, Navy, or the Air Force in bowl games, the success of these programs in bowl games comes from their consistency of play from week-to-week along with using spread triple-option rushing attacks that are not weather dependent to succeed. And while their opponents benefit from the extra weeks to prepare, these are sophisticated offensive attacks that leave play-callers plenty of options to counter against the defensive adjustments while expanding the plays in the playbook. 10* CFB Liberty Bowl ESPN Special with the Navy Midshipmen (258) minus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (255) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (256). THE SITUATION: Florida State (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on November 30th with their 40-17 loss at Florida as a 17-point underdog. Arizona State (7-5) has won their last two games with their 24-14 win over Arizona on November 30th as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Florida State managed only 250 yards against the Gators offense — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. And while the Seminoles surrendered 390 passing yards to Florida, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This team is playing under interim head coach Odell Haggins who took over the team after Willie Taggart was sacked in November. The players play hard under Haggins as he is 4-1 as an interim head coach with Florida State which includes a 42-13 victory over Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl two years ago. Over their last three games, the Seminoles have scored 34.3 PPG while averaging 433.0 total YPG which is +5.6 PPG and +29.8 net YPG above their season average. Florida State is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 bowl games — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as an underdog. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Sun Devils secured five wins against Power-Five teams this season but with a low margin of victory in those contests of just +5.4 PPG. This team was outgained this season overall in yardage behind an offense that was just 89th in the nation by averaging a mere 379.6 total YPG. Arizona State scored only 20.6 PPG while averaging just 301.6 total YPG in their five games on the road. Pass defense is also an issue for this team as they ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 270.1 passing YPG. These characteristics make the Sun Devils unreliable favorites as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games when laying the points. Arizona State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as the favorite. The Sun Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are missing significant players in this game who decided to skip for preparation for the NFL draft. Florida State will be without a scholarship player at running back given injuries along with Cam Akers' decision to bypass the game. The Seminoles have been jumpstarted on offense as of late by quarterback Jordan Davis who they have used in their running game. But Arizona State will be without their 1000-yard rusher in Eno Benjamin and 1000-yard wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk who are skipping this game for the NFL draft. The Sun Devils’ losses are probably the bigger blow for an offense that was not much without them. 10* CFB Sun Bowl CBS-TV Special with the Florida State Seminoles (255) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (286) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (285) in the Belk Bowl. THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (8-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on November 29th with their 39-30 upset loss at Virginia as a 1.5-point favorite. Kentucky (7-5) has won three in a row after their 45-13 win over Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played in Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech will have something to prove on defense in what will be the last game for their legendary defensive coordinator Bud Carson before he enters retirement. The Hokies surrendered 492 yards to the Cavaliers with 311 of those yards coming in the air. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite that performance against Virginia, the Hokies defense steadily improves as they held their last four opponents to just 276 YPG while keeping these foes -115 YPG below their season average. This is a team that bottomed out early after a 45-10 loss at Duke in late September. The team moved to sophomore Hendon Hooker under center after that and he led the team to six wins in seven starts while leading the offense to average 36.8 PPG. Hooker completed 62.1% of his passes while throwing 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions and he added another five touchdowns with his legs. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have then covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, the Hokies have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Kentucky has won five of their last seven games while covering the point spread in six of their last seven contests. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This Kentucky coaching staff had to scramble after the season-ending injury to junior quarterback Terry Wilson — but they found an answer in converting speedster wide receiver Lynn Bowden to the QB position. This tactic worked as having their best offensive player touching the ball on every snap helped them in those final seven games with his 1235 rushing yards propelling the offense to average a whopping 352 rushing YPG. But Bowden and company will now be facing a stour Hokies run defense that ranked 27th in the nation by allowing 123.3 rushing YPG — and giving Carson three weeks to prepare for this system in his swan song should mean this Virginia Tech defense will be very prepared. Kentucky has scored 95 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. The Wildcats are limited in their passing attack behind Bowden as they averaged just 117.1 passing YPG which is 126th in the nation. This team also scored just 14.5 PPG along with 325.7 total YPG in their four true road games.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Belk Bowl ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (286) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (285) in the Belk Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (251) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (252) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Virginia (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 62-17 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game where they were 29-point underdogs back on December 7th. Florida (10-2) has won three straight games with their 40-17 win over Florida State as a 17-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they surrender 211 rushing yards to the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Virginia has a potent offense in the fourth season under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia was 42nd in the nation by averaging 32.4 PPG. They are led by senior quarterback Bryce Perkins who led the ACC by averaging 304.6 total YPG from his passing and running. He completed 27 of 43 passes for 266 yards against Clemson while adding another 58 rushing with his legs. Over their last three games, the Cavaliers have averaged 459.3 total YPG which is +69.0 net YPG above their season average. Virginia has played five straight games Over the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing at least three straight Overs. The Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least two weeks of preparation. Florida has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Gators have not allowed more than 256 total yards in three straight games as well — but they have failed to then cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games are not allowing more than 275 yards in three straight contests. Florida has become primarily a passing team on offense behind junior Kyle Trask — they are 16th in the nation by averaging 300.4 passing YPG. But the Gators have not rushed for more than 77 yards in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in two straight contests. Florida was not as dominant on the road this year where they only outscored their opponents by +3.2 PPG while being outgained in those six games by -8.0 net YPG. The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with at least two weeks of rest and preparation.

FINAL TAKE: Florida scored an emotional 41-15 victory over Michigan in last year’s Peach Bowl in what was revenge to two recent losses to the Wolverines. Now after a 10-2 season where they lost their two biggest games against LSU and Georgia, being a two-touchdown favorite may be uninspiring for this team now. The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Orange Bowl ESPN Special with Virginia Cavaliers (251) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (252) in the Orange Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Virginia Cavaliers (251) and the Florida Gators (252). THE SITUATION: Virginia (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 62-17 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game where they were 29-point underdogs back on December 7th. Florida (10-2) has won three straight games with their 40-17 win over Florida State as a 17-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Virginia has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. This is potent offense in the fourth season under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia was 42nd in the nation by averaging 32.4 PPG. They are led by senior quarterback Bryce Perkins who led the ACC by averaging 304.6 total YPG from his passing and running. He completed 27 of 43 passes for 266 yards against Clemson while adding another 58 rushing with his legs. Over their last three games, the Cavaliers have averaged 459.3 total YPG which is +69.0 net YPG above their season average. The problem for this Cavs team has been the deterioration of their play on defense. Virginia allowed only 281 total YPG in their first eight games — but injuries contributed to them surrendering 481 YPG over their last final five contests. The Cavaliers lost two starters in their secondary, senior cornerback Bryce Hall and junior safety Brenton Nelson, to season-ending injuries. Clemson racked up 619 yards of offense against Virginia with 211 of those yards coming on the ground. The Cavaliers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after giving up at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. Over their last three games, Virginia has allowed 39.7 PPG along with 498.0 total YPG. The Cavs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in bowl games. Florida has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have seen the Over go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Gators held the Seminoles to just 250 yards of offense in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game. The Florida offense saw a season-ending injury early on to incumbent quarterback Feleipe Franks but the offense raised their level of play under the direction of junior Kyle Trask who threw 24 touchdown passes to just six interceptions in his eleven games. Over their last three games, the Gators scored 39.7 PPG while averaging 471.0 total YPG. They outgained Florida State by +217 net yards on the heels of outgaining Missouri by +130 net yards — and not only have they then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +125 net yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Gators ranked 9th in the nation by allowing just 299.0 total YPG — but that number skyrocketed by +78.8 net YPG in their six games on the road. Florida has played 4 straight games Over the Total in December. 25* CFB New Year’s Day Six Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Virginia Cavaliers (251) and the Florida Gators (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (249) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (250) in the RedBox Bowl. THE SITUATION: Illinois (6-6) stumbled into the postseason with two straight losses after suffering a 29-10 upset loss at home to Northwestern as a 6.5-point favorite back on November 30th. California (7-5) has won their last two games with their 28-18 upset win at UCLA on November 30th as a 1-point underdog. This game will be played in Levi’s’ Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois managed only 160 yards of offense in that loss to the Wildcats which was their de-facto bowl game in what was otherwise a very disappointing season for them. The Illini were only on the field of 18:42 minutes in that game with Northwestern controlling time of possession. But Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing their last two games against Big Ten opponents. This has been a breakthrough season in the fourth season under head coach Lovie Smith with this team pulling off upset victories over Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue while also playing Michigan and Iowa on the road pretty tough. The Illini have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as the underdog. Injuries have held back this team but they look to get their best quarterback back in Brandon Peters for this game after clearing the concussion protocol that kept him out in that loss to Northwestern. The former Michigan QB had 17 touchdown passes to just 7 interceptions in ten games while posting a nice QBR of 129.7. But the underappreciated element of this Illini team is their opportunistic defense that generated 22 sacks with 18 forced fumbles, 12 interceptions and four defensive touchdowns. Smith was the defensive coordinator for a St. Louis Rams’ team that went to the Super Bowl before taking the Chicago Bears to a Super Bowl as their head coach — he knows a thing or two about coaching defense. Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Fighting Illini have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. Cal may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Golden Bears also had injury issues at quarterback with them being a perfect 6-0 when sophomore QB Chase Garbers played the entire game. While Garbers is healthy, I am not sure he will still not split time between him and fellow (graduate transfer) redshirt sophomore Devon Modster who has potential after transferring from UCLA. The Bears benefited from four close wins decided by one scoring possession this season. They are an unreliable favorite laying close to a touchdown when considering they were outscored this season while being outgained by -62.5 net YPG. While their defense held their opponents to just 22.1 PPG which was 33rd in the nation, they surrendered 385.5 total YPG which was a bit out of whack with those scoring numbers since that total defensive mark drops to 63rd best in the FBS. Cal allowed 415.8 total YPG in their six games away from home where they were outgained by -97.3 YPG. They also were outgained by -36.0 net YPG over their last three games despite winning two of them. The Golden Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games. This contest will be played within an hour of their Berkeley campus. But if you think a big crowd is coming from their students over Christmas break — and that they will make enough noise to play more than a small role in this game — well, I have some property in the Florida swamplands that you may be interested in purchasing. Much of a home-field advantage comes from actually playing on a team’s home field — and this game is being played in the home of the 49ers. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Illinois Fighting Illini (249) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (250) in the RedBox Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (245) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (246) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Western Michigan (7-5) looks to bounce-back from a 17-14 upset loss at Northern Illinois as a 10-point favorite that ended their regular season on November 26th. Western Kentucky (8-4) has won their last three games after their 31-26 win over Middle Tennessee on November 30th as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: That was an excruciating loss for head coach Tim Lester’s team as it cost them an opportunity to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. Western Michigan defeated both of those participants, Miami (OH) and Central Michigan by at least two touchdowns so there is a case to be made that they were the best team in the conference overall this season. But the seventeen returning starters from last years' 7-6 team have the opportunity to improve on that record while redeeming themselves from their ugly 49-18 loss to BYU in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Broncos should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a MAC opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival. Furthermore, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Western Michigan did outgain the Huskies in that game by +98 net yards while also winning the first down battle by a 16 to 9 margin. The offense is led by senior Jon Wassink who leads an attack that finished 19th in the nation by averaging 457.3 total YPG while also averaging 24th in the FBS by scoring 34.2 PPG. Defense was the Achilles’ heel for this team — but they did hold their last three opponents to 366.7 YPG which was -47.9 net YPG below their season average. Wassink should get plenty of time to throw this afternoon behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus grades as the 28th best pass protection unit in the nation. PFF also grades the Hilltoppers’ pass rush as just 80th best in the country. Western Kentucky surrendered 301 passing yards in their victory over the Blue Raiders a month ago — and they are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This team under first-year head coach Tyson Helton pulled off five upset wins this season while defeating four teams that qualified for bowl games. But the group might be satisfied with their accomplishment — and they have a rookie head coach leading them into this bowl game. The Western Kentucky defense has been shaky down the stretch as they allowed their last three opponents to average 398.0 YPG which was +60.2 net YPG above their season average.

FINAL TAKE: The Hilltoppers relished in the role of the underdog this season after going just 3-9 in last year’s disastrous campaign — but this program has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as the favorite. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl with the Western Michigan Broncos (245) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (246). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night. Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. With the stakes so high, expect a shootout between two teams that have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. San Francisco has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have also played three straight Overs with all three games seeing at least 51 combined points scored — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco surrendered 395 total yards to the Rams last week with 323 of those yards coming in the air. The 49ers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, San Francisco goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The 49ers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West opponents, San Francisco has played all 4 games Over the Total. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against NFC West foes. The Seahawks have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 23 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. Frankly, the only way that Seattle can stay competitive in this game is in a higher-scoring game given the sorry state of their defense. The Seahawks rank 26th in the NFL by allowing 380.5 total YPG — and they allow their visitors to score 29.0 PPG while seeing them average 385.0 total YPG. Over their last three games, Seattle has allowed their opponents to score 26.3 PPG while generating 427.0 total YPG. The Cardinals gained 412 yards against them last week in the rematch of their earlier NFC West clash — and the Seahawks have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Seattle stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle won the first meeting between these two teams by a 27-24 score in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog — and the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NFL San Francisco-Seattle NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday. San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. In head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson, we will trust in this one to develop a game plan that puts his offense in a position to succeed even with this attrition. Seattle is 37-18-14 ATS in their last 69 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss at home. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The offense has struggled as of late with the offensive line not giving Wilson enough time in the pocket — he has been sacked 26 times over the last six games. Yet Seattle has scored at least 27 points in three of those contests. The Seahawks are also just 4-3 at home this season — but it would be foolish to diminish the home field edge they will enjoy tonight. Seattle is 33-15-3 in their last 51 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at home as the dog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 29 points — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 games after allowing their last two opponents to score at least 25 points. The Niners allowed the Rams to pass for 323 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This team does not embrace the role of the favorite as they are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games when laying the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as the favorite. San Francisco is also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams from the NFC with this including them going 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 27-24 upset loss at home in overtime to the Seahawks back on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss at home. San Francisco is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has won three of their last four games with their 27-17 win over Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Oakland (7-8) remained alive in the AFC playoff race last week with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders need to win this game and then see Tennessee and Pittsburgh lose with Indianapolis winning (for strength of victory tie-break implications) and then a little more help to bolster their strength of victory tie-breaker resume (like New England winning) — so the pressure is on head coach Jon Gruden’s group. The Steelers and Titans are both on the road so this playoff scenario is not completely out of the realm. But I do not expect Oakland to play well. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 74 games after an upset victory — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in seven of these last nine situations. Oakland has also failed to cover the point spewed in 23 of their last 32 games after an upset victory over an AFC West rival — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last four situations. Additionally, the inconsistent Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread victory. Oakland enters this game far from at full strength with rookie phenom Josh Jacobs out with his shoulder injury and the offensive line banged up with left tackle Trent Brown out and guard Richie Incognito questionable with an ankle. The Raiders defense is also depleted with injuries to safety Karl Joseph and defensive end Arden Key making the season-ending suspension to linebacker Vontaz Burfict even more devastating. There is a reason why this team had lost four straight games before they upset a reeling Chargers team. Oakland stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing three of their last four games. The Raiders are being outscored by -10.8 PPG away from home while allowing their home hosts to score 29.9 PPG. Oakland is 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the AFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Denver is playing for next season as they hope to build momentum under first-year head coach Vic Fangio and quarterback Drew Lock. The rookie has played well since getting a look under center — he completed 25 of 33 passes last week for 192 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions in leading the Broncos to victory. Denver is completing 65.3% of their passes over their last three games while averaging 233 passing YPG on a solid 6.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average with Lock taking the vast majority of those snaps. The Broncos are scoring 22.7 PPG while averaging 330.0 total YPG over those last three games which is a nice improvement over their 17.7 PPG and 302.6 YPG season averages. Any bump in offensive production makes this a much better team given the outstanding defense this team still plays. Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in both allowing only 20.1 PPG and surrendering just 327.7 total YPG. The Broncos are even stingier at home where they hold their visitors to just 18.3 PPG along with only 300.6 total YPG. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set at 38.5 to 42. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Denver will be motivated not only to build momentum for next season but also to play the role of spoiler for the Raiders’ playoff hopes. The Broncos will also be looking to avenge a 24-16 upset loss in Oakland back on September 9th where they were 3-point favorites. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-9) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-15 loss to Baltimore last week as a 9.5-point underdog. Cincinnati (1-14) has lost three games in a row with their 38-35 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Who knows how rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens will call plays this afternoon in his likely last opportunity to fulfill his lifelong fantasy of being both a head coach and offensive coordinator calling plays. Kitchens has been an utter failure this season with his lack of leadership best displayed in his unwillingness to defer the play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Todd Monken after the Browns struggled early in the season. Kitchens had never even been an offensive coordinator when last season started — and he is unlikely to ever be a head coach or offensive coordinator ever again (at least in the NFL). Kitchens may use this game to dig deep into his drawings book of unused plays he has been compiling throughout his long traveled career as a journeyman assistant coach. But, I suspect he will be compelled to draw up plenty of running plays to feed the rock to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for a delusional Hail Mary pass to keep his job when facing the league’s worst statistical run defense — and that is a good formula for the Under. As it is, the Browns have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. And while Cleveland managed only 241 yards of offense last week, the Under is then 42-20-2 in their last 64 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Browns are averaging just 322.3 YPG over their last three games — and they score only 19.3 PPG on the road. Cleveland needs to tighten things up on the defensive side of the ball after allowing 69 combined points over their last two games. The Browns have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. And while Cleveland allowed the Ravens to average 6.77 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after a loss. And while the Bengals went into halftime last week trailing the Dolphins by a 21-6 score, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after trailing by at least two touchdowns at halftime of their last game. Cincinnati did generate 430 yards last week — but the Under is 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they are scoring only 16.4 PPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games as an underdog. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Under is 10-4-2.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have clinched the number one pick in the 2020 NFL draft — but they will be motivated to avenge a 27-19 loss in Cleveland back on December 8th as a 6.5-point underdog. Cincinnati has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (243) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (244) in the Fiesta Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Clemson (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 62-17 win over Virginia as a 29-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Ohio State (13-0) won the Big Ten Championship that same day with their 34-21 win over Wisconsin as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The quants that measure in-season performance mostly rate the Buckeyes as the better team entering this game — but those quantitative assessments do not take into account anything from last season. Dabo Swinney returned twelve starters from last year’s perfect 15-0 national champion squad including is phenom at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. I am just not going to hand out any demerits for the Tigers failure to overly impress the College Football Playoff committee by failing to generate enough style points against teams like Syracuse and North Carolina early in their schedule. Given that Clemson was likely to reach the playoff even if they suffered an early season loss, it was reasonable for Swinney to prime his team to play their best football in the second half of the season. The Tigers displayed the balance on offense that will make it very hard for any defense to slow them down this postseason. In generating 619 yards of offense against the Cavaliers, Clemson rushed for 211 yards while adding another 408 yards in the air. Lawrence leads a loaded offense that is 4th in the nation that scores 46.5 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the nation by averaging 547.7 total YPG. Lawrence has not thrown an interception since October 19th while producing the highest Pro Football Focus quarterback grade over the last four weeks of the regular season in all of college football. Since Week Nine of the regular season, Lawrence leads the nation with 20 touchdown passes while averaging 11.1 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt which is also best in the nation. His 214 Efficiency Rating over that span is also best in the nation. Where Lawrence has improved from leading the Tigers to the national championship as a freshman was with his mobility — he rushed for 407 yards on 77 carries while reaching the end zone seven times. Over their last three games, Clemson is scoring 50.7 PPG. The Tigers also have the nation’s top statistical defense that holds their opponents to just 10.6 PPG along with only 244.7 total YPG. Clemson allowed only 19 combined points in their two playoff wins last season. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 bowl games. Clemson has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record including their last six contests against winners — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as the favorite. Clemson leads the nation by allowing only 138.5 passing YPG — and Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against opponents that do not allow more than 150 passing YPG. I do give the edge to the Tigers at quarterback with Lawrence versus the Buckeyes’ Justin Fields. Not only does Fields lack playoff experience but he can also stand in the pocket a tick or two too long — he has been sacked nine times. Fields is very good — but he may not be at full strength either with an injured knee that has required him to wear a brace over his last few games which has limited his mobility. Ohio State has averaged 534.5 total YPG over their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last two contests. The Buckeyes allowed just 12.5 PPG this season — but they surrendered 21.0 PPG over their last four games and they have not played a team with as much speed as the Tigers. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning five straight games. The Buckeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams from the ACC.

FINAL TAKE: Nick Saban was on the record after seeing his Alabama teams lose the National Championship to Clemson last January by a 44-16 score that he has never faced off against a better coached team than that group. All those Tigers coaches are back. Swinney has built the best program in the country in terms of recruiting and production — there is a reason they have won 28 games in a row while enjoying a 71-4 run over the last five seasons where they have reached the playoffs all five times. I like first-year head coach Ryan Day — but this Buckeyes team does not recruit quite as well as the Tigers and this is their first playoff experience since 2016. 10* CFB Clemson-Ohio State ESPN Special with the Clemson Tigers (243) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Clemson Tigers (243) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (244) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Clemson (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 62-17 win over Virginia as a 29-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Ohio State (13-0) won the Big Ten Championship that same day with their 34-21 win over Wisconsin as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers displayed the balance on offense that will make it very hard for any defense to slow them down this postseason. In generating 619 yards of offense against the Cavaliers, Clemson rushed for 211 yards while adding another 408 yards in the air. The Tigers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads a loaded offense that is 4th in the nation that scores 46.5 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the nation by averaging 547.7 total YPG. Lawrence has not thrown an interception since October 19th while producing the highest Pro Football Focus quarterback grade over the last four weeks of the regular season in all of college football. Since Week Nine of the regular season, Lawrence leads the nation with 20 touchdown passes while averaging 11.1 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt which is also best in the nation. His 214 Efficiency Rating over that span is also best in the nation. Where Lawrence has improved from leading the Tigers to the national championship as a freshman was with his mobility — he rushed for 407 yards on 77 carries while reaching the end zone seven times. Over their last three games, Clemson is scoring 50.7 PPG. And while the Buckeyes are 2nd in the nation by allowing just 148.1 passing YPG, the Tigers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total under head coach Dabo Swinney against teams who do not allow more than 150 passing YPG. Ohio State generated 492 yards against the Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes averaged 39.3 PPG over their last three games along with 495.3 total YPG against three of the best defenses in the nation against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Their win against the Badgers three weeks ago finished below the 58 point total — but the Buckeyes have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after coming off a game that finished below the number. And while Ohio State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields leads the Buckeyes offense that leads the nation by scoring 48.7 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by generating 531.0 total YPG. Fields has completed 67.5% of his passes while posting an incredible 40:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Like Lawrence, Fields can extend drives with his legs as he rushed for 471 yards with 10 touchdowns. I see more touchdowns than field goals from both teams given the wealth of weapons on offense. Ohio State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the rare occasions they are an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The defensive numbers of both teams have come mostly against soft competition. The Clemson defense was not tested this season — the Buckeyes will offer their most difficult challenge by far. Ohio State allowed 12.5 PPG this season — but they surrendered 21.0 PPG over their last four games. The Buckeyes’ have not played a team with as much speed as the Tigers. I am expecting both teams to reach the 30-point threshold in what should be a shootout. 25* CFB Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Clemson Tigers (243) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (241) and the LSU Tigers (242) in the Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (12-1) has won five straight games after defeating Baylor as a 9-point favorite by a 30-23 score on December 7th in the Big 12 Championship Game. LSU (13-0) remained undefeated this season by defeating Georgia by a 37-10 score as a 7.5-point favorite to win the SEC Championship on December 7th. This game will be played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Oklahoma has only covered the point spread once in their last six games and twice in their last nine contests — and not only have they then played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games but they have also played 9 straight Unders when failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This Sooners team has improved on defense under first-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. After allowing 33.3 PPG along with 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last season, Oklahoma improved by giving up just 24.5 PPG along with only 5.3 YPP this year. The Sooners’ defense was 25th in the nation by allowing 330.6 total YPG fueled by a pass defense that limited their opponents to just 198.5 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. And this is a unit that will be very familiar facing the spread passing attack that the Tigers’ installed this season. Over their last three games, Oklahoma allowed only 21.0 PPG along with just 268.0 total YPG. The Sooners are going to run the football to burn time off the clock while keeping the powerful LSU offense off the field. They controlled the clock for 36:36 minutes in the Big 12 Championship Game which helped them limit Baylor to just 265 yards of offense. Oklahoma has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games on a neutral field Under the Total with the number set at 63 or higher. The Under is also 18-3-1 in the Sooners’ last 22 games in December which includes them playing eight of their last nine December bowl games Under the Total. And in their last 13 games against teams from the SEC, the game finished Under the Total 10 times. LSU has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over an SEC rival. And while that 27 point margin was the closest game the Tigers have played in their last three contests, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after registering at least three straight wins by at least 17 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after two straight double-digit victories over conference rivals. LSU did generate 481 yards against the Bulldogs defense — and that was the lowest yardage mark in their last six games. The Tigers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in four straight games. LSU has scored at least 37 points in five straight games as well — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in four straight contests. The Tigers defense has stepped up as well as of late after holding Texas A&M to just 7 points before limiting Georgia to just 10 points and a mere 286 total yards. Over their last three games, the Bulldogs have allowed only 12.3 PPG along with just 253.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field. The Tigers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Oklahoma-LSU ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (241) and the LSU Tigers (242) in the Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (241) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (242) in Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (12-1) has won five straight games after defeating Baylor as a 9-point favorite by a 30-23 score on December 7th in the Big 12 Championship Game. LSU (13-0) remained undefeated this season by defeating Georgia by a 37-10 score as a 7.5-point favorite to win the SEC Championship on December 7th. This game will be played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Oklahoma team is a very dangerous underdog in this spot. This is an experienced group of players and coaching staff that is more familiar with the playoff atmosphere this game will have then that of LSU. This will be the fourth CFB Playoff in the last five years for this program. And quarterback Jalen Hurts has starting experience in the CFB Playoffs with Alabama — and he is very familiar with the LSU defense as well given his two previous starts against the Tigers. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against teams from the SEC. The Sooners may be a more dangerous underdog this time around than they have been in the last two College Football Playoff Semifinals due to the improvement of their defense under first-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. After allowing 33.3 PPG along with 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last season, Oklahoma improved to giving up just 24.5 PPG along with only 5.3 YPP this year. The Sooners’ defense was 25th in the nation by allowing 330.6 total YPG fueled by a pass defense that limited their opponents to just 198.5 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. And this is a unit that will be very familiar facing the spread passing attack that the Tigers’ installed this season. Over their last three games, Oklahoma allowed only 21.0 PPG along with just 268.0 total YPG. The Sooners are still a very potent football team on offense as they averaged 43.2 PPG while totaling 554.2 YPG which ranked 6th and 2nd in the nation. Third-year head coach Lincoln Riley has seen his team average 41 PPG over the last two College Football Playoff Semifinals against outstanding defenses from Alabama and Georgia. In many ways, Riley’s schemes are just fancy window dressing for Oklahoma’s old school wishbone offense — they are 11th in the nation by averaging 257.2 rushing YPG. Riley is a master at designing run plays that best put his offensive line in a position to succeed. Hurts has rushed the ball at least 20 times in four of his last five games since the team suffered their lone loss of the season to Kansas State. Hurts also completed 71.8% of his passes for 3634 passing yards with 32 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions. Hurts offers the team a genuine deep passing threat to keep opposing defenses honest as he ranked 6th in the nation with 30 completions of 30 or more yards. This combination of characteristics has helped the Sooners cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Oklahoma has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. And while the Sooners have not covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. When it comes to LSU, I worry about teams that achieved so many goals in the regular season to now let their guard down just a bit. The Tigers enjoyed their best regular season in years by going undefeated to win the SEC which, of course, included a victory over Alabama. Quarterback Joe Burrow went through an emotional Heisman Trophy celebration. Does this group think they are a team of destiny now? They are facing a very feisty Sooners’ team that will be playing in this game for a third straight season. This Tigers defense is not elite after ranking just 32nd in the nation by allowing 341.3 total YPG. Even worse, in their six games away from Death Valley, LSU allowed 29.5 PPG along with 447.5 total YPG. The Tigers have struggled against teams with mobile quarterbacks like Ole Miss who jacked them for 614 total yards with 404 of that production coming on the ground. LSU gained 481 yards against the outstanding Georgia defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing a turnover in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: While LSU is the top seed in these Semifinals, bare in mind that no number one seed has gone on to win the National Championship. I appreciate that the Sooners are out a few key players due to suspension and injury — most notably defensive end Ronnie Perkins and safety Dellarin Turner-Yell. The MVP for this Oklahoma defense is their coordinator in Grinch — and he has had time to adjust. I expect this team to rally around each other after Riley had the guts to suspend players. LSU has a big injury of their own with running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire questionable with a hamstring injury he suffered last week. At the end of the day, the Tigers are simply overvalued by the public in being asked to lay around two touchdowns. 25* College Football Playoff Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (241) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (242). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (237) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238) in the Camping World Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped to end their regular season with their 27-17 upset loss at Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on November 30th. Notre Dame (10-2) has won five straight games with their 45-24 win at Stanford as a 17.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a loss. This is a dangerous football, especially as an underdog. Head coach Matt Campbell’s team played six bowl teams this season — and they saw four of their losses decided by just 11 combined points. Iowa State suffered heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma by 1-point and Baylor by 2-points. Led by sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy, the Cyclones are tied for 20th in the nation by averaging 458.7 total YPG fueled by a passing attack that is 8th in the FBS by averaging 318.3 passing YPG. Iowa State has been tough away from him where they are outscoring their opponents by +3.8 PPG while outgaining them by +51.0 net YPG despite a 2-3 record on the road. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Iowa State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog. Furthermore, the Cyclones have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games with the Total set int he 49.5 to 56 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing with at least two weeks of rest and preparation. Notre Dame has now covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Fighting Irish have not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not committing a turnover in at least two straight contests. The Notre Dame offense had been clicking on all cylinders to close out the regular season as they have scored at least 38 points in their last four games. But the Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after scoring at least 31 points in four straight contests. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: After losing their two biggest games of the year at Georgia and Michigan, it is hard to see this Notre Dame team being that excited to face the Cyclones. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 bowl games including failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games. Iowa State can salvage their season after some tough narrow losses with a victory over a blue blood like the Irish. 10* CFB Camping World Bowl ABC-TV Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (237) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the Memphis Tigers (239) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (240). THE SITUATION: Memphis (12-1) has won seven straight games with their 29-24 win over Cincinnati as a 9-point favorite in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game on December 7th. Penn State (10-2) has won two of their last three games with their 27-6 win over Rutgers on November 30th as a 38.5-point favorite. This game is being played in AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. This team saw their fourth-year head coach Mike Norvell leave the team to take the Florida State job but with offensive line coach, Ryan Silverfield, taking over, the emphasis of this team should continue to be on the offensive side of the football. Led by junior quarterback Brady White, Memphis was 8th in the FBS by averaging 40.5 PPG — and they were 10th in the nation by averaging 480.7 total YPG. This offense was even more potent on the road where they averaged 43.0 PPG along with 524.5 total YPG in their six games away from home. The Tigers also have an elite return game with their special teams which generates hidden yardage that does not show up on the boxscore but puts White into better initial field position. Memphis has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Tigers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, Memphis has played 10 of these games Over the Total. Penn State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Quarterback Sean Clifford did not play in that game against the Scarlet Knights — but he should be close to 100% for this game with head coach James Franklin claiming he was a game-time decision who could have played if necessary in that game. The Nittany Lions also lost a coach with offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne leaving to take the head coaching job at Old Dominion — but the offense should be fine with Franklin still overseeing everything for this team. I worry about the Penn State pass defense in this matchup — they surrendered 232.5 passing YPG which was 76th in the nation. Before facing the anemic Rutgers offense, the Nittany Lions had surrendered 86 combined points in their previous three games — and they have allowed their last three opponents including the Scarlet Knights to average 420.7 total YPG. Penn State has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big Ten.

FINAL TAKE: The Nittany Lions have played 4 straight games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total. Group of Five schools have won three of their five New Year’s Six Bowl games — so even if Penn State takes a big lead, the potent Memphis passing attack should keep them scoring points throughout this game. 10* CFB Cotton Bowl ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the Memphis Tigers (239) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Camping World Bowl between the Iowa State Cyclones (237) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped to end their regular season with their 27-17 upset loss at Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on November 30th. Notre Dame (10-2) has won five straight games with their 45-24 win at Stanford as a 17.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones were crushed on the ground by the Wildcats in that game by allowing 231 rushing yards — but they have then seen the Under go 44-19-2 in their last 65 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Iowa State only allowed 288 total yards in that game with Kansas State managing to pass for just 57 yards — and the Under is then 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. The Cyclones managed only 236 yards of offense in that game — and they have averaged just 397.0 total YPG over their last three contests which is over 60 yards below their 458.7 total YPG average. The Under is 9-2-1 in Iowa State’s last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Cyclones’ last 9 games against teams outside the Big 12. And Iowa State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Cyclones’ last 7 bowl game appearances — and the Under is a decisive 18-7-2 in their last 27 games played on field turf. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. The Fighting Irish have also played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Irish have an outstanding defense that ranks 14th in the nation by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and their defense is 3rd in the FBS by allowing only 163.7 passing YPG. After losing to Michigan, Notre Dame only allowed more than 20 points just once in their last five games. They held their opponents to -86 YPG below their season offensive average — and they also ranked 7th in the nation by Expected Points Added per play. The Irish offense did slow down when playing away from South Bend as they scored just 29.8 PPG while averaging just 367.6 total YPG in their last five road games which was over a touchdown less along with over 60 yards less than their 37.1 PPG and 429.4 total YPG averages. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field as the favorite. 25* CFB ABC-TV Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (237) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (235) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (236) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Washington State (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in the Apple Bowl with their loss at Washington by a 31-13 score on November 29th as a 7.5-point underdog. Air Force (10-2) has won seven straight games with their 20-6 win over Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons may be due for a letdown in this bowl game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home over a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win over a conference foe. Air Force has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Falcons have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Air Force has been helped by only committing one turnover in each of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. The historical team trends regarding the respective personalities of both teams suggest this clash of styles is not favorable for the Air Force. The Cougars allow their opponents to average 456.8 total YPG — but the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games against teams who allow at least 450 YPG. And while the Air Force controls the clock on average of 33:43 minutes per game, Washington State has covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games against opponents that average at least 32 minutes with the football per game. The Falcons average 292.5 rushing YPG — but the Cougars have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who average at least 230 rushing YPG. Additionally, Washington State has covered the point spread in expected higher scoring games as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State is reliable in the role of the underdog where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Washington State Cougars (235) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (236) in the Cheez-It Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (233) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) in the Military Bowl. THE SITUATION: USC (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 52-35 win over UCLA as a 12.5-point favorite back on November 23rd as a 12.5-point favorite. Iowa (9-3) has won three straight games with their 27-24 win over Nebraska as a 4-point favorite back on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. USC generated a whopping 643 yards against the Bruins in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. USC is loaded on offense behind freshman QB Kedon Slovis and three uber-talented wide receivers that ranks 17th in the nation by averaging 463.7 total YPG. Iowa’s defense ranks 11th in the nation by allowing just 304.3 total YPG but they only faced three quarterbacks that ranked in the top-twenty in pass efficiency. In those three games, the Hawkeyes surrendered 441 total YPG. The Iowa offense is led by senior quarterback Nate Stanley who will be using this opportunity to bolster his NFL draft prospects. He will be facing a suspect USC defense that has been riddled by injuries all season. The Trojans are 84th in the nation by allowing 415.4 total YPG while also ranking 99th in the FBS by surrendering 248.9 passing YPG. USC allows their opponents to average +13 YPG above their season average — and they have allowed their last four opponents to average 34 PPG. The Trojans rank 111th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate on offense — and the Hawkeyes faced only one team (Rutgers) with a worse opponent Success Rate all season. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Hawkeyes’ last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total. USC has seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Holiday Bowl ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (233) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (234). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (233) in the Holiday Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (9-3) has won three straight games with their 27-24 win over Nebraska as a 4-point favorite back on November 29th. USC (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 52-35 win over UCLA as a 12.5-point favorite back on November 23rd as a 12.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a Big Ten rival. And while the Hawkeyes have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. This Iowa team lost their three games by a combined 14 points. This is a typical Kirk Ferentz team that is very physical with an outstanding defense and playmakers on offense. The Hawkeyes are 5th in the nation by allowing only 13.2 PPG — and they are 11th in the FBS by giving up just 304.3 total YPG. Iowa held their opponents to -81 YPG below their opponent’s season average. The offense is led by senior quarterback Nate Stanley who will be using this opportunity to bolster his NFL draft prospects. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when given at least two weeks to prepare under Ferentz. The Hawkeyes are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the Big Ten, Iowa has covered the point spread 6 times. USC may be due for a letdown after avenging their 2018 loss to cross-town rival UCLA as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 19 games after a win at home over a Pac-12 opponent. Additionally, USC is just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory so consistency is an issue for this team. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning at least three straight contests. Complacency is also an issue for this program — while the program decided to retain head coach Clay Helton for a sixth season, the Trojans then brought-in the bottom rated recruiting class earlier this month. While this remains a talented team tonight, this is a group that makes too many mistakes under Helton’s leadership. USC is 111th in the nation by averaging -0.58 net turnovers per game. The Trojans are also tied for 111th in the nation by averaging 7.25 penalties per game — and they rank 124th by surrendering an average of 71.33 penalty YPG. These are the type of teams that Ferentz’s teams exploit — Iowa has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 55 games against teams that average at least 60 penalty YPG. USC also is suspect on defense with a unit that has been riddled by injuries all season. The Trojans are 84th in the nation by allowing 415.4 total YPG while also ranking 99th in the FBS by surrendering 248.9 passing YPG. USC allows their opponents to average +13 YPG above their season average — and they have allowed their last four opponents to average 34 PPG. UCLA passed for 383 yards against them a month ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Trojans rank 111th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate on offense — and the Hawkeyes faced only one team (Rutgers) with a worse opponent Success Rate all season. USC is loaded on offense behind freshman QB Kedon Slovis and three uber-talented wide receivers. But this passing game will be tested by an Iowa defense that ranked 11th in the nation by allowing just 184.2 passing YPG. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games played in December including failing to cover their last 5 December contests.

FINAL TAKE: USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games while also failing to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 minor bowl games. Iowa has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 minor bowl games under Ferentz. This will be an emotional game for this Iowa program after their legendary coach, Hayden Fry, passed away ten days earlier. Ferentz took over the program from Fry in 1999 — and a victory tonight would secure the Hawkeyes’ first 10-win season since 2015. 25* CFB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (233). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (232) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (231) in the Texas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (7-5) has lost their last two games after being humiliated by LSU by a 50-7 score as an 18-point underdog back on November 30th. Oklahoma State (8-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on November 30th with their 34-16 loss to Oklahoma as a 14-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field in Houston’s NRG Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M played a brutal schedule this season with their five losses all occurring against teams that are currently ranked in the top thirteen teams in the nation. Head coach Jimbo Fisher has a young team that he is trying to build into a national championship contender — so erasing the bad taste from everyone’s mouth from getting shellacked by the Tigers is important. The Aggies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. A -3 net turnover margin to LSU certainly did not help matters — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Despite facing three of the top offenses in the nation in Clemson, Alabama, and the LSU, this Texas A&M defense held their opponents to -78 YPG below their season average. Overall, they rank 31st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 340.8 total YPG. The Aggies were very competitive in their previous game in Athens in what ended up being a 19-13 loss to Georgia. That is a brutal final two games on the road — and Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. This Aggies’ offense led by junior dual-threat QB Kellen Mond scored at least 30 points in six games this season when not facing Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, and Auburn’s stout defense. Oklahoma State was a shell of itself by the end of the season given the season-ending injuries to quarterback Spencer Sanders and All-American wide receiver Tylan Wallace. In their last two games with former Hawai’i transfer Dru Brown under center, the Cowboys averaged just 18 PPG while averaging only 305 YPG. This is not a good sign for a Mike Gundy coached team who has seen his team play three straight Unders as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing three straight Unders. Defense is an issue for this team after they allowed 418.1 total YPG this season which was 87th in the nation. While Oklahoma State was 4-2 on the road, they only outgained those opponents by +4.0 net YPG due to their defense giving up 454.5 total YPG. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: Fisher has led his team to victories in six of his eight bowl games. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games outside the SEC. They are also 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games when favored. 10* CFB Texas Bowl ESPN Special with the Texas A&M Aggies (232) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (231). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (227) minus the points versus the Temple Owls (228) in the Military Bowl. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (6-6) has won their last two games to become bowl eligible with their 41-0 win at North Carolina State as an 11-point favorite on November 30th. Temple (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 49-17 win over UConn as a 26-point favorite to close out their season on November 30th. This game will be played on a neutral field in Annapolis, Maryland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina should feed off the momentum from decisively defeating their in-state rival to secure bowl eligibility with their sixth victory of the season. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. This is certainly a battle-tested North Carolina team that took the reigning National Champions in Clemson to their closest game of the season in that 21-20 loss. The Tar Heels have played ten Power-Five conference opponents, along with one of the best Group of Five football programs in Appalachian State this season. North Carolina suffered six losses decided by one scoring possession including two of those losses in overtime. The Tar Heels are led by freshman quarterback Sam Howell who led an offense that ranked 24th in the nation by averaging 285.0 passing YPG. Howell threw for 35 touchdown passes while tossing just 7 interceptions. Howell was also third in the nation with 18 touchdown passes of more than 20 yards — and he was 9th in the nation with an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 49.4%. This is a talented North Carolina offense that should benefit from the extra weeks of practice and preparation for this game. They averaged +111 net YPG above the average opponent’s YPG season defensive average. The Tar Heels were also effective on the road where they outscored their opponents by +6.0 PPG while outgaining them by +111.3 net YPG. Additionally, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite. Temple has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning three of their last four contests. The Owls have not faced nearly as competitive a schedule as the Tar Heels with just two Power Five conference opponents in Maryland and Georgia Tech who were both bottom feeders in their conferences. Yet Temple was outscored away from home by -4.4 PPG while being outgained in their five games on the road by -15.0 net YPG. I am not a big fan of junior quarterback Anthony Russo who led an offense that averaged -26 YPG below their opponent’s season defensive average. The supposed calling card for this Owls team is their defense that ranked 43rd in the nation by allowing just 23.5 PPG while also ranking 46th in the FBS by giving up only 364.8 total YPG. Yet North Carolina’s defensive numbers are comparable as they allowed 24.6 PPG (49th in the nation) and 381.6 total YPG (61st in the nation) despite facing a vastly superior schedule. Temple has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: It is worth mentioning that Temple head coach Rod Carey lost all six of his bowl games during his tenure at Northern Illinois. Frankly, I worry that this consideration would be overvalued by the betting public — but with a few more tickets going the Owls’ way (as of this writing) as an underdog, that concern does not deter me from investing in the Tar Heels. Perhaps Carey is not as averse to prepare his teams for bowl games? I suspect his bad record says more about the talent he had with the Huskies. Mack Brown has a 13-8 bowl record in his long career — and he should be motivated to lead his team to victory since he has not overseen a bowl victory since 2012. I suspect that Brown’s tenure at ESPN makes him value these postseason games a little more than other coaches — and a victory would fuel the momentum of the resurrection of the Tar Heels program. However, the bottom line is that this North Carolina roster is more talented and better tested than this Temple team. 10* CFB Military Bowl ESPN Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (227) minus the points versus the Temple Owls (228). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (226) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (225) in the Quick Lane Bowl. THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on November 29th with their 34-26 upset loss at home against Kent State as a 4-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 26-19 upset loss at home to Boston College as a 9-point favorite on November 30th. This bowl game will be played at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan should respond with a strong effort under sixth-year head coach Chris Creighton as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. The Eagles should be very motivated to play well in this bowl game a little less than an hour away from their Ypsilanti campus. This the third bowl game for this program in their last four years but they are fortunate to get the invitation with their 6-6 record coming out of the Mid-American Conference. Ten starters returned from last year’s 7-6 team that lost to Georgia Southern in the Camellia Bowl by a 23-21 score. The Eagles should be able to score points behind quarterback Mike Glass III who completed 67.8% of his passes with 22 touchdown passes. Eastern Michigan averaged 37.7 PPG along with 478.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Eagles generated 409 yards in their loss to the Golden Flashes — and they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Getting their senior running back, Shaq Vann back has also helped this offense. After missing three games midseason, Vann has returned to rush for 556 yards in his last six games while scoring all eight of his touchdowns over that span. The Eastern Michigan defense has also played better to close out their regular season — they have held their last three opponents to 21.7 PPG along with 376.3 total YPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a double-digit underdog. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams outside the MAC. Pittsburgh has been an unreliable big favorite as they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a double-digit favorite. Eight of their games this season were decided by one scoring possession with them winning five of those contests to secure their bowl eligibility. The Panthers enter this bowl game disappointed after a late-season slide took them out of contention to win the Coastal Division of the ACC. This team limps into this game having scored just 17.7 PPG over their last three contests while being outscored by -9.3 PPG in those last three games while surrendering 369.3 total YPG which is -66.8 net YPG above their season average. Injuries on the defensive side of the ball along with the continual slide away from the typical offense that head coach Pat Narduzzi likes to implement likely explains that decline of play. While the Panthers averaged 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry last season, they averaged just 3.5 YPC this season. They are also passing the ball 53% of the time which is uncharacteristic of a ground-and-pound Narduzzi offense. Quarterback Kenny Pickett completes only 60.9% of his passes while tossing just 10 touchdown passes with 9 interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games. 10* CFB Quick Lane Bowl ESPN Special with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (226) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (225) in the Quick Lane Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (223) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (224) in the Independence Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (6-6) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 27-17 loss at Duke as a 9.5-point favorite on November 30th. Louisiana Tech (9-3) snapped a two-game losing streak on November 30th with their 41-27 win over UTSA as a 21-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field in Shreveport, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: The Bulldogs are a trendy pick as an underdog behind seventh-year head coach Skip Holtz that has overseen a perfect 5-0 record straight-up in bowl games in his tenure at Louisiana Tech. And with this game being played just about an hour away from the Bulldogs’ campus in Ruston, some observers fancy some level of home-field advantage for Louisiana Tech. Well, the Bulldogs are not very familiar with the stadium and they will need the sparse crowd to be very loud to make a tangible difference even with the majority of the ticket-goers rooting for them. Louisiana Tech played the 141st most difficult schedule this season which means there were a handful of FCS opponents that had a more challenging slate of games this season. The Bulldogs played only one Power-Five conference opponent in Texas who crushed them by a 45-14 score in their opening game of the season. Their best victory is probably against Southern Mississippi depending on one’s feelings about Florida International. Yet this team was still outscored in their last three games by -4.3 PPG while being outgained in these contests by -45.4 net YPG. It is telling that Louisiana Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the ACC. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning eight of their last ten games. Observers are questioning the motivation level for this Miami team playing in a lesser bowl game — but I expect a highly motivated group under first-year head coach Manny Diaz. Diaz needs to end his first season as a head coach on a positive note after ending the season with two straight upset losses to that FIU team (in embarrassing fashion on a neutral field) before the loss on the road to the Blue Devils. The Hurricanes are also missing a handful of players who are either injury or skipping this game to prepare for the NFL draft. In that respect, the practices for this bowl game have been the first practices for the 2020 season for Diaz. Miami has tons of depth on their defensive line so losing two of those players in that rotation are not as devastating as they would be if the Hurricanes were playing one of the better Power-Five conference programs. The core of the team that was ranked 13th in the nation by allowing just 307.6 total PPG remains. Diaz has also used the bowl practices as an opportunity for a new quarterback competition between redshirt freshman Jarren Williams and redshirt sophomore N’Kosi Perry who split time this season along with former Ohio State transfer Tate Martell who had to leave the team twice this season but who has been back with the team this month. The Hurricanes defeated five bowl teams this season in what was a vastly superior strength of schedule than the Bulldogs. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And while Louisiana Tech averages 277.3 passing YPG, Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is also not at optimal strength with two-time All-American cornerback Amik Robertson skipping this game to prepare for the NFL draft. He leaves a defense that was just 98th in the nation by allowing 247.8 passing YPG. I trust the oddsmakers on this one with them installing the Hurricanes as around a touchdown favorite. Miami has lost eight of their last nine bowl games so I do expect their players to be motivated to end this season on a high note under their first-year head coach. And I do not think highly of the argument that Louisiana Tech retains much of an advantage at all in that their bus ride to a near-empty stadium will have been only around an hour. 10* CFB Independence Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (223) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (221) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (222) in the Hawai’i Bowl. THE SITUATION: BYU (7-5) saw their five-game winning streak snapped back on November 30th with their 13-3 upset loss at San Diego State as a 4-point favorite. Hawai’i (9-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped on December 7th with their 31-10 loss at Boise State as a 14-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Hawai’i hosts this game in their Aloha Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINT(S): BYU has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. BYU has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars outgained the Aztecs by a decisive 416 to 269 yardage margin but they suffered a -3 net turnover margin in that contest— and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Quarterback Zach Wilson should benefit from the extra time to rest and prepare for this bowl game after missing four games during the season. He returned to play the last three games of the season — and he should be fired up to play in this bowl game after completing all 18 of his passes last year in BYU’s 49-18 thrashing of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Despite their difficulties to score points against the stout San Diego State defense, they have still averaged 33.7 PPG in their last three games along with 497.7 total YPG which +59.0 Net YPG above their season average. BYU has also held its last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG along with only 277.3 total YPG. BYU has also been a good road warrior despite their 3-3 record as they are outgaining their home hosts by +98.8 net YPG. Additionally, the Cougars have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Mountain West Conference opponents. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 52 games after a straight-up loss — and they are just 17-43-1 ATS in their last 61 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by at least 21 points. Hawai’i has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss to an MWC rival. Quarterback Cole McDonald completed just 20 of 36 passes for 241 yards with no touchdown passes and one interception against the Broncos as he continued to be inconsistent in the second half of this season. The Rainbow Warriors run-and-shoot offense has been too loose with the football as they are averaging -1.0 net turnovers per game which listed for 124th in the nation. Hawai’i also has a suspect defense that ranks 91st in the nation by allowing 426.1 total YPG due largely to a suspect run defense that ranks 105th in the nation by allowing 200.8 rushing YPG. The Rainbow Warriors are 6-2 at home but they are allowing their visitors to generate 461.0 YPG. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home. The Rainbow Warriors have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i is just 4-4 straight-up in their eight opportunities to play in the Hawai’i Bowl on their home field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games. The Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games. Hawai’i is playing their third bowl game in Hawai’i over the last four seasons — so their motivation is a question. BYU has won their first two bowl games under head coach Kalani Sitake. 10* CFB Hawai’i ESPN Special with the BYU Cougars (221) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (482) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (481). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite. Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota will be without their top two running backs tonight with Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison dealing with injuries. The Vikings still have capable running backs tonight with former Cincinnati Bearcat Mike Boone along with a former first-round draft pick in Ameer Abdullah so I am not very concerned about Minnesota having to dig deeper into their depth chart. Boone was great in the preseason so he should be fine as the lead back tonight. The Vikings are very tough to beat at home where they are 6-0 for the first time since 2009. They are outscoring their guests by +13.5 PPG while outgaining these foes by +53.6 net YPG. The Vikings have a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota is 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Vikings are also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as the favorite. This team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games in December. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. This Packers team has been grinding out victories in close games this season — they have six net close wins decided by one scoring possession. But Green Bay is being outgained by -35.7 net YPG this season — and they have been outgained by -19.0 YPG over their last three contests. And while the Packers are 4-2 on the road this year, they are being outscored in those games while also being outgained by -107.3 net YPG in those contests. Green Bay is averaging only 271.0 total YPG away from Lambeau Field. First-year head coach Matt LeFleur has this team running the ball more — but he has been very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will be looking to avenge a 21-16 loss at Green Bay back on September 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Packers. 10* NFL Green Bay-Minnesota ESPN Special with the Minnesota Vikings (482) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week. Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Green Bay has an improved defense this season that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.2 PPG. Over their last three games, the Packers have allowed just 13.7 PPG along with only 337.3 total YPG. Some of the help to the defense has been a different style of play under first-year head coach Matt LeFleur as the team is running the ball more which keeps their defense rested. But Green Bay is averaging only 336.6 total YPG as a result which is 21st in the NFL. When the Packers play away from Lambeau Field, they are scoring just 20.8 PPG while averaging only 271.0 total YPG. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. While LeFleur’s emphasis on running the football may have made this team a more consistent winner, he is also very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with those initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. Furthermore, the Packers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against NFC North opponents, Green Bay has played all 7 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota has played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the NFC North. The Vikings have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Minnesota is undermanned tonight at the running back position with both Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison not playing because of injuries. Over their last three games, the Vikings are averaging just 350.7 total YPG which is -21.9 YPG below their season average. Minnesota still has a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (219) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (8-4) enters this game coming off a 34-27 win in overtime over Florida International as a 10-point underdog back on November 30th. Central Florida (9-3) comes off a 34-7 win over South Florida as a 24-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: In head coach Doc Holliday we trust in bowl games — he has led Marshall to six straight bowl victories. The Thundering Herd has covered the point spread in 7 straight bowl games. This team is playing better defense to close out the season. Over their last three games, they have held their opponents to just 20.3 PPG along with only 335.0 total YPG which is over 27 YPG below their season average. Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing on a neutral field. Additionally, the Thundering Herd has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, Marshall has covered the point spread 6 times. Central Florida may have some difficulties getting motivated to play as a double-digit favorite with this bowl being played in their home state. They generated 539 yards of offense in their win against the Bulls with 307 of those yards coming in the air. But the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Central Florida has averaged 493.3 total YPG over their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three games. They are averaging 33.0 PPG over those last three contests as well which is -10 PPG below their season average. The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging 31 PPG in their last three games. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as the favorite. This is the first non-New Year’s Six Bowl game that this will be playing in since 2016. Expect the Thundering Herd to keep this game closer than expected. 10* CFB Gasparilla Bowl ESPN Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (219) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (480) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (479). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago was eliminated from the playoffs last week with that loss to the Packers along with Minnesota’s victory — so there is a question regarding their motivation tonight. However, the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler on national television with the weight of the pressure of the high expectations they entered the season with will likely be liberating for this group. The Bears outgained Green Bay last week by +123 net yards but a -3 net turnover margin spoiled their effort. Chicago suffered a -2 net turnover in their win against Dallas the previous week — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover in two straight games. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he has averaged 299 passing YPG over his last four games while averaging 2.0 touchdown passes per game. Trubisky is also being more aggressive with his legs in critical situations — he rushed for 29 yards last week. Chicago returns home where they are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 36 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. Kansas City may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last eight games. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their four-game winning streak, the Chiefs are averaging only 341.3 total YPG which is over 40 YPG below their 384.4 total YPG season average. Kansas City will also be undermanned in their secondary tonight with cornerback Morris Claiborne out with a shoulder injury.

FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly in Chicago tonight with temperates dropping to the mid-30s — and the Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in December. 10* NFL Kansas City-Chicago NBC-TV Special with the Chicago Bears (480) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against an AFC West rival. Additionally, Kansas City has played 50 of their last 78 games Under the Total after winning three straight games. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Kansas City defense has been outstanding over their last four games since their bye week. The Chiefs are allowing only 9.3 PPG in their last four contests which is tops in the NFL — and they are giving up just 287.0 total YPG over those four games which is 5th best in the league. Kansas City is holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 62.6 Passer Rating which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in their last four games — and they have then played 49 of their last 80 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as the favorite. Chicago has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Bears have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago did generate 415 total yards against the Packers — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he averaged 299 passing yards per game over his last four games. But he has put up those numbers against the Detroit, NY Giants, Dallas, and Green Bay defenses so his improved stats should be put into the contest. Trubisky dropped back to throw 53 passes last week — and the Bears have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they attempted at least 50 passes. Chicago returns home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. The Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly tonight on the south of Chicago in Soldier Field with temperatures dropping to the mid-30s. The Bears have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (217) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (218). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on the Conference USA Championship Game with their 49-7 loss at FAU as a 9-point underdog. Appalachian State (12-1) won the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game that day with their 45-38 win over UL-Lafayette at home as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB probably played their worst game of the season in that loss to the Owls.  Look for head coach Bill Clark to have his team ready to respond with a strong effort tonight. The Blazers are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. UAB surrendered 585 yards in that game to FAU playing at home — but they have responded to then cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Blazers have been a strong defensive team this season as they rank 9th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 294.1 total YPG. UAB also only managed 223 yards on offense in that game — but they are 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. The Blazers are also 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. This is a team that has been riddled with injuries all season. The incumbent starting quarterback, Tyler Johnston III, has missed four games this season. But the two weeks of rest and preparation will help this team get closer to full strength which includes a healthy Johnston. Admittedly, UAB has benefitted from a soft schedule this season — but so has Appalachian State. Remember, the Mountaineers last loss was against a Georgia Southern team that just got upset this afternoon to a Liberty team which had generally considered to have played the weakest schedule in the nation. The analytics folks who crunch strength of schedule into their laptops before projecting their (albeit flawed) point spread projections tend to have Appalachian State as a -12 to -18.5 point favorite — so we are getting value from most of the projections that take seriously strength of schedule. This Mountaineers team was outgained in four of their victories this season — and they lost the first down battle by a whopping 106 to 63 margin in those four games. They forced three turnovers by the Ragin’ Cajuns in their win two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after securing at least three takeaways in their last game. These big favorites in bowl games have been known to not bring their A-Game when traveling — and who knows what the mental shape of this team is with head coach Eli Drinkwater leaving the program to take the Missouri job. Offensive line coach Shawn Clark has been named the new head coach — but this team has been susceptible to letdowns under much less dramatic situations than winning the Sun Belt Championship before seeing their head coach leave them. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning at least five games in a row. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row against conference rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Too many points to lay against an extremely well-coached team that has had a very captive audience since they embarrassed themselves on national television two weeks ago. While Appalachian State is the better team (and program), the divide is not as large as the point spread suggests. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the UAB Blazers (217) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a home favorite. San Francisco has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games with injuries on defense playing a significant role in the decline of play on that side of the ball. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit in his late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has seen their last two games finish Over the Total — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. The 49ers stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Now the Rams stay on the road where they have played 30 of their last 46 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Los Angeles offense has picked things up as of late as they are scoring 27.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 431.0 total YPG. The Rams have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog overall.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be looking to avenge a 20-7 loss at home to the 49ers back on October 13th. Todd Gurley did not play in that game which limited their ground attack as well as the credibility of their play-action passes. Los Angles has played 21 of their last 35 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 10* NFL LA Rams-San Francisco O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles was embarrassed last week on the late window game on national television. They should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 11 go their last 17 games after suffering an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games after being upset this season. They need to get the ball to running back Todd Gurley more after he only rushed the ball 11 times last week. While Gurley seems to have lost his lateral speed, the Los Angeles offense has been at its most effective when they remained committed to running the football to better set up their play-action passing for quarterback Jared Goff. After experiencing a midseason slump, Goff has averaged 333.7 passing YPG over his last three games while tossing two touchdown passes in each contest. The Rams’ improvement this week needs to be on the other side of the football after surrendering 475 yards to the Cowboys while falling behind by a 28-7 score at halftime. The Los Angeles defense has not allowed more than 20 points in ten games this season so they should respond with a strong effort. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Surprisingly, LA has been a better road team this season after having a significantly better at home last year. In their six true home games, the Rams are 3-3 while being outscored by -3.9 PPG and outgained by -13.4 net YPG. In their eight games away from the Los Angeles, the Rams are 5-3 with an average winning margin of +6.2 PPG while winning the yardage battle by +69.1 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. San Francisco is also looking to rebound from an upset loss — but injuries on defense have changed the dynamic of this team. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit — and that group has suffered a string of injuries ever since that late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. The Niners have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, the 49ers are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games this season when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow NFC West foes — and they have a more important game on deck with Seattle next week that will likely determine the NFC West champion so they may be caught looking ahead. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against divisional opponents — and they will be motivated to avenge a 20-7 upset loss at home to the Niners back on October 13th as a 3-point favorite. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (209) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on November 30th with their 49-28 win over New Mexico State as a 14.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (7-5) has won two of their last three games as well as eight of their last ten contests with their 38-10 victory over Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite on November 30th. The Cure Bowl game takes place on a neutral field in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty generated 486 yards of offense against the Aggies to close out their regular season — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. These Flames are a high-scoring offense led by senior quarterback Stephen Calvert who threw for 26 touchdown passes while tossing just five interceptions. Calvert has a dynamic target in wide receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden who has 1333 receiving yards with nine touchdown receptions. Calvert leads an offense that is tied for 31st in the FBS by scoring 33.7 PPG while averaging 442.5 total YPG which is 34th in the nation. Calvert leads a passing attack that is 21st in the FBS by averaging 290.5 passing YPG. He should have success this afternoon against a suspect Eagles pass defense that allows their opponents to average 240.6 passing YPG which is 91st in the nation. This team is comfortable in getting into high scoring affairs. They have seen 82 and 77 combined points scored in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two straight games where at least 70 combined points were scored. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. This team has a veteran head coach in Hugh Freeze who has dealt with adversity this season after contracting a staph infection that led to him coaching a handful of games from his bed. Look for this team to rally around their coach in this game. The knock-on this Flames team not affiliated with a conference is that they reached seven wins on one of the softest schedules in the nation. But also keep in mind that Liberty upset the same Buffalo team that easily defeated Charlotte in yesterday’s Bahamas Bowl — and Georgia Southern deploys a similar run-oriented style of offense. Being an independent also required the Flames to endure a difficult late-season four-game road trip that included trips to BYU and Virginia — so this is a battle-tested group. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against non-conference opponents. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games as an underdog. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win over a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Eagles did not commit a turnover in their last victory over the Panthers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after not committing a turnover in their last game. Georgia Southern has won four games decided by one scoring possession with two of those victories coming in overtime — so this team was a couple of bad breaks from bot even being bowl eligible. The Eagles were outgained by -43.0 net YPG overall this season — and they were outscored by -12.5 PPG in their six games away from home while being outgained by -124.5 net YPG in those contests. Georgia Southern deploys a spread triple offense that is effective in running the ball — but things are not as smooth if quarterback Shai Werts has to throw the football with the Eagles averaging just 72.8 passing YPG which is last in the FBS with Werts averaging below 11 passing attempts per game in his ten contests.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern returned fourteen starters from last year’s 10-3 team that won the Camellia Bowl over Eastern Michigan by a 23-21 score. Their motivation to prepare for this bowl game may not be as high in these preceding weeks — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Liberty Flames (209) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles in the Cure Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (207) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (208) in the New Mexico Bowl. THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (8-5) looks to bounce-back from being upset in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game to Miami (OH) by a 26-21 score despite being a 5.5-point favorite. San Diego State (9-3) looks to build off their 13-3 upset victory BYU as a 4-point underdog on November 30th. The New Mexico Bowl takes place in Albuquerque.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Michigan was upset by the Red Hawks despite outgaining them by +83 net yards in that game. The Chippewas limited Miami (OH) to just 272 total yards in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Central Michigan has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This team is led by MAC Coach of the Year, Jim McElwain, who is very familiar with Rocky Long’s coached-teams at San Diego State after his tenure in the Mountain West Conference as the head coach at Colorado State. Long deploys a tricky 3-3-5 defense that McElwain has spent many hours dissecting even before this bowl matchup was announced. This team has steadily improved this season after suffering a 1-10 record last season. Former Tennessee quarterback Quentin Dormady has completed 71% of his passes over his last three games and will not shrink under the scrutiny of this game given his previous starting experience in SEC play. Over their last three games, the Chippewas are averaging 467.3 total YPG while outgaining their opponents by +120 net YPG. This team has a stout defense that ranked 20th in the nation by allowing only 115.1 rushing YPG — and they rank 38th in the nation in total defense by giving up one y351.7 total YPG. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the MAC. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. And while the Aztecs surrendered 338 passing yards to the Cougars which is not a good sign for this game considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. San Diego State upset BYU despite being without their starting quarterback Ryan Agnew. While Agnew has recovered and will play in this game, he leads an anemic offense the did not score more than 20 points in five games this season. Don’t be surprised if Long uses this game to get his freshman QB Carson Baker more playing time after he started against BYU. This is an offense that is 119th in the nation by averaging just 19.0 PPG while also ranking 115th in the FBS by averaging only 329.3 total YPG. And over their last three games, the Aztecs are scoring only 13.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State was embarrassed last season in their bowl game against Ohio which ended in a 27-0 loss. But the Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in December. Expect Central Michigan to keep this game close. 10* CFB New Mexico Bowl ESPN Special with the Central Michigan Chippewas (207) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (456) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (455). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (7-7) has won four straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 38-17 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (9-5) has won three of their last four games with their 24-21 upset win at Tennessee last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans may be due for an emotional letdown on this short week after pulling off that big upset victory that was critical for their AFC South title aspirations. But Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after pulling off an upset victory over an AFC South foe. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a divisional rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Houston was outgained by the Titans by -58 net yards after surrendering 432 total yards. Defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed 27.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 423.7 total YPG which is -44.6 YPG worse than their season average that already ranked 28th in the league. This is not a good sign for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And while Houston has allowed their last two opponents to average 7.24 and 6.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6 YPP. The Texans are unreliable as a favorite considering that they are being outgained in yardage overall this season. They are also being outscored and outgained on the road while being outscored and outgained in their last three contests despite winning two of those games. Seven of Houston’s victories this season have been decided by one scoring possession — and they have four net close wins decided by one possession. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. They are also just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in December. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. The Buccaneers are significantly undermanned at wide receiver for this game with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out for this game. But in head coach Bruce Arians I trust when it comes to devising an offensive game plan with a week to prepare. Expect a creative use of tight ends and running backs in the passing game. The under-appreciated aspect of this Bucs team is the continuing improved play of their defense that ranks tops in the NFL by allowing only 73.3 rushing YPG under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Over their last three games, Tampa Bay is allowing only 21.0 PPG along with just 282.0 total YPG. This solid play on defense helps explain why the Bucs are outgaining their opponents by +50.0 net YPG this season. Of course, Winston’s turnovers tend to ruin the good work this team does in the yardage battle — but the Texans have only had three takeaways over their last five games. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when getting no more than 7 points as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. While quarterback Jameis Winston has not been in many games that had playoff implications, he does seem to relish the role of playing the spoiler. Expect a close game where Tampa Bay has a late chance to pull the upset. 10* NFL Houston-Tampa Bay NFL Network Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (456) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (203) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (204) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kent State (6-6) has won three games in a row with their 34-26 upset win at Eastern Michigan as a 4-point underdog on November 29th. Utah State (7-5) has won three of their last four games with their 38-25 win at New Mexico as a 12-point favorite on November 30th. This bowl will take place in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINTS: Kent State became bowl-eligible by pulling upsets in their last three games of the season. The Golden Flashes upset Buffalo by a 30-27 score getting +6.5 points before stunning Ball State by a 41-38 score as a +3 point dog before their upset win against the Eagles to close out the regular season. Some may look at those results and expect this team to experience an emotional letdown after reaching the mountain of a bowl game. However, this is a team that continued to improve and develop during the regular season after facing a very difficult non-conference schedule that featured Wisconsin, Auburn, and Arizona State. At 32-years old, Sean Lewis is the youngest head coach in the FBS in his second-year with the program. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while Kent State has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Over their last three games, the Golden Flashes are scoring 35.0 PPG while averaging 456.3 total YPG which is +7.6 PPG and +62.7 YPG above their season average. This team is led by an underrated junior quarterback in Dustin Crum who beat out a former Auburn transfer in Woody Barrett during fall practice. Crum threw 18 touchdown passes this season while tossing just two interceptions while completing 68.2% of his passes and averaging a robust 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt. His 156.07 Passer Rating was tops in the Mid-American Conference. The dual-threat QB also led the team with 560 rushing yards entering this game. Crum’s offensive talent should keep Kent State competitive in this game. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Kent State has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. This team has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog when facing a non-Power Five opponent. The Golden Flashes have rushed for 266 and 253 yards in each of their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 225 yards in two straight games. Kent State is 44th in the nation by averaging 181.3 rushing YPG — and they will be facing an Aggies defense that has been vulnerable against the run by allowing 197.8 rushing YPG which is 103rd in the FBS. Utah State has allowed 297 and 276 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 225 rushing yards in two straight games. Additionally, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against conference opponents. This is a team that appears to be a prime candidate to be taking this bowl game lightly. They are distracted after four players were busted for pot possession on Saturday including their junior quarterback Jordan Love. This program peaked last season with their 11-2 campaign that ended with a 52-13 win over North Texas in the New Mexico Bowl. That team averaged 48 PPG — but with only two starters back on offense and their offensive guru in head coach Matt Wells leaving the program for Temple, the scoring plummeted to just 28.3 PPG this season (68th in the nation). Love had an uninspiring 17:16 touchdown-to-interception ratio after boasting a 32:6 ratio last season — yet he is still bailing on his senior year to enter the NFL draft while the iron remains (relatively) hot. The Regression Gods were expected to visit this team this season — but even with former head coach Gary Andersen returning to the program, this team was outscored and outgained in yardage this season. Three net close victories by one scoring possession were essential in them becoming bowl eligible. The Aggies were outscored by -7.0 PPG when playing on the road while being outgained by -113.0 net YPG. Utah State was also outscored by -6.7 PPG over their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Losing their All-American linebacker, David Woodward, midseason certainly did not help the development of the Aggies in Andersen’s return to the program. Utah State ranks 96th in the nation by allowing 431.4 total YPG. This is Kent State’s just third bowl game appearance in program history with this being their first bowl opportunity since 2012. They should be fired up — and their skill on offense should keep this game close. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the Kent State Golden Flashes (203) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte 49ers (202) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (201) in the Bahamas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Charlotte (7-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-22 win at Old Dominion to close out their regular season on November 30th as a 10.5-point favorite. Buffalo (7-5) has won their last two games as well as five of their last six contests with their 49-7 win over Bowling Green as a 28-point favorite back on November 29th. This game is being played in Nassau in the Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte is a team that got significantly better as the season went on under first-year head coach Will Healy. After allowing at least 30 points in five of their first six games against FBS opponents, the 49ers did not allow more than 22 points in their final four games while holding both their last two opponents in Marshall and the Monarchs to below 5.0 Yards-Per-Play. Charlotte had nine starters back from a defense that ranked 22nd in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 337.3 total YPG last season but it took that group some time to adapt to the new 4-2-5 scheme implemented by defensive coordinators Brandon Cooper and Marcus West. The extra defensive back helped as the 49ers limited their opponents to just 198.3 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. Slowing down the run will be critical against the Bulls but this was a group that was 9th in the FBS two seasons ago by allowing just 105.7 rushing YPG so don’t be surprised if they deploy some of their familiar 5-2-4 looks that they used two years ago with three returning starters on that defensive line. Healy’s bigger assignment in his first season was improving an offense that scored just 21.7 PPG (tied for 113th in the FBS) last season. Mission accomplished: Charlotte raised that mark 31.6 PPG this season which was tied for 41st best. The offense is led by senior running back Benny LeMay who led a ground attack that averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 24th in the nation by averaging 213.3 rushing YPG. LeMay missed two games midseason but came back to put together back-to-back 100 yard plus rushing games to end the regular season. The improvement in the offense can be traced to the improved play of sophomore quarterback Chris Reynolds who completed 62.2% of his passes while throwing 21 touchdown passes to 10 interceptions while adding 757 rushing yards with 6 rushing touchdowns. Over Reynolds' last five games, he threw 9 TD passes with two games where he passed for 336 and 354 yards while adding a minimum of 94 rushing yards in each contest. Over their last three games, the 49ers outscored their opponents by +12.3 PPG while outgaining them by +122.3 net YPG. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win over a Conference USA rival. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, the 49ers have covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point sped in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least four touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Bulls were an impressive 6-1 at home this season — but they were only 2-4 away from home while being outscored by -2.8 PPG in those games. The weakness of this team is when they have to rely on their passing attack. Sophomore Kyle Vantrease did not win the starting quarterback job out of camp but took over after the season-ending injury to redshirt freshman Matt Myers. Vantrease averaged only 155 passing YPG in his seven starters. More telling, while Buffalo averaged just 18.7 passing attempts per game in their seven wins, that number rose to 26 passing attempts per game in their five losses — so the ability of the 49ers to slow down their rushing attack looks critical. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when getting at least two weeks to prepare.

FINAL TAKE: This is Buffalo’s first back-to-back bowl appearance in program history after playing and losing in last year’s Dollar General Bowl to Troy by a 42-32 score after blowing a 4th quarter lead. Buffalo is looking to win their first bowl game in their fourth try this afternoon. This will be the first bowl game for Charlotte in just their fifth year in the FBS — and the players will be excited to trigger the strobe light post-victory ritual that has been implemented by Healy. The first five Bahamas Bowls have all been decided by 4 points or less — expect another close game in the sixth incarnation of this bowl game. 20* CFB Bahamas Bowl ESPN Special with the Charlotte 49ers (202) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (333) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints may have a hard time recovering from the physical and emotionally draining experience of that showdown with the 49ers last week — and facing another physical team with this Indianapolis team will be a tough test. As it is, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games coming off a loss at home in their last game. And while the Saints have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Injuries are beginning to play a bigger role with this team. Not only is the offensive line banged up, but now they have lost defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins may be out for the rest of the season. The Saints stay at home where they are 5-2 in the Superdome but they are only outscoring their visitors by +2.5 net PPG. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Indianapolis will be playing with desperation tonight to keep their playoff hopes alive — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Colts have allowed 69 combined points over their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games. Indianapolis is also 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The encouraging aspect of this team is they are finding success on offense despite being without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (who is not likely to play tonight). Getting Marlon Mack at running back last week helped — and the Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Indianapolis stays on the road where they are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Look for Indianapolis to keep this game closer than expected. 10* NFL Indianapolis-New Orleans ESPN Special with the Indianapolis Colts (333) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While last week saw 94 combined points scored in a scoring fest between two NFC powers, history is not likely to repeat itself tonight back in the Big Easy. mNot only have the Saints played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game but they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Drew Brees led an offense that generated 465 yard of offense — but New Orleans has then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they gained at least 400 yards. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points in their last contest. And while New Orleans has scored at least 26 points in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. The Saints offensive line is banged up right now so it may be difficult for them to continue to put up these big offensive numbers. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record overall, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Colts have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Indianapolis game plan will be to run the football with a healthy Marlon Mack working behind their great offensive line with the goal of controlling possession and burning time off the clock. The Colts have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total in December. With the Colts unlikely to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton tonight with head coach Frank Reich claiming he would only play if he was 100% again, the Indianapolis offense will be limited and unlikely willing to try to get into a shootout after losing in a high-scoring game with the Buccaneers. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (321) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Buffalo should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss. And while the Bills could only manage 209 yards of offense against the tough Ravens’ defense, they are then 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo has a team that is built to play well on the road with their strong defense and good running game. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL by allowing just 16.3 PPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by holding their opponents to just 296.3 total YPG. Buffalo is also 5th in the NFL by averaging 135.3 rushing YPG. Buffalo is 5-1 on the road this season while outscoring their home hosts by +7.8 PPG. The Bills are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Buffalo has has six games decided by one scoring possession this season — they are 3-3 in those games. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has had nine games decided by one scoring possession where they have won six of those contests — so a double bad breaks going the other way and this could be a 6-7 football team. The Steelers are being outgained by -20.8 net YPG. Pittsburgh is getting it done despite having an anemic offense. Since Week 10, the Steelers are scoring only 16.6 PPG which is tied for 28th in the league during that span while averaging a mere 289.0 total YPG which is also 28th in the NFL. Even worse, Pittsburgh has turned the ball over 10 times since Week 10 which is tied for fourth worst during that span and their quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of just 74.5 in those games which is 29th. Rookie QB Devlin Hodges has been a gamer for this team — he completed 16 of 19 passes last week for 152 yards. But as the game tape grows on him, good defenses will begin to devise more specific game plans. Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott is one of the brightest defensive minds in the business — they held the juggernaut Baltimore offense led by likely league MVP Lamar Jackson to just 257 total yards last week. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win by 6 points or less. And while Pittsburgh has responded from an 0-3 start with eight wins in their last ten games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning eight of their last ten contests. Furthermore, they managed only 135 net passing yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 150 net yards. The Steelers do expect to get running back James Conner back for this game but wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster has been downgraded to doubtful as he continues in the concussion protocol.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders with them winning five of their last six games decided by one scoring possession. Look for the Steelers good fortunes to run out tonight. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (321) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We bet numbers — and an Over/Under set in the mid-30s is simply too low in a game between two teams that is expected to be highly competitive between two potential playoff teams. The Steelers have played 34 of their last 54 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. And while the Bills are allowing only 16.3 PPG this season, Pittsburgh has played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total against teams who do not allow more than 17 PPG — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games in the second half of the season against opponents not allowing more than 17 PPG. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 37 of their last 56 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 38 point range — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as the favorite. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning eight of their last ten games. And while Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders which has helped drive this betting number down, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing five straight Unders. The Steelers’ offense will get a jump start with the return of running back James Conner. Buffalo only managed 209 yards of offense last week while averaging just 3.37 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 29 of their last 51 games Over the Total after failing to average at least 4.0 YPP in their last game including playing four of these last six games Over the Total. Buffalo does average 23.0 PPG when playing on the road — and while that is not a huge number, it does look more impressive when confronting a Total below 40. The Bills are conservative on offense given their outstanding defense but they have scored at least 17 points in eleven of their games while reaching at least 20 points in seven of their contests.

FINAL TAKE: Because this is expected to be a close game, the scoring should continue to trickle in during all 60 minutes of this contest — and this logic is supported by an empirical angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games involving a team that has won at least three of their last four games now facing a team that has won at least four of their last five games have then finished Over the Total in 55 of these last 81 situations where these conditions applied. 10* NFL Buffalo-Pittsburgh NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.