At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (303) and the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have scored at least 33 points in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests with the lone exception being their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the beginning of the month. They generated 431 yards against the Commanders despite having their offense on the field for only 23:06 minutes of that game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has at any time in his career after completing 22 of 32 passes against Washington for 331 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home. Furthermore, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight contests. They have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Cowboys are generating 443.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home this season which is resulting in a whopping 41.0 Points-Per-Game.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago had a 98.2% win probability to beat the Lions with just 4:15 minutes left in the fourth quarter — but they then gave up two touchdowns in those final four minutes to blow that game. The bigger takeaway from that result is that this Bears team is better than their record. They have -3 net losses in their four games decided by one scoring possession. They are only getting outgained by -2.0 Yards-Per-Game which is the type of mark for a 5-6 or even 6-5 team. They have played four games without starting quarterback Justin Fields — and the third-year pro is playing better after a slow start to the season. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions against Detroit last week. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. The defense is playing better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 284.0 total YPG and only 22.7 PPG. In their last three games, the Bears are outgaining their opponents by +49.3 net YPG despite relying on rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent in two of those contests. Chicago has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spreads as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after losing two of their last three games. Minnesota endured a -3 net turnover margin in their loss to the Broncos last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings have held their last two opponents to just 65 and 46 rushing yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after not giving up more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games.  

FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point home underdog on October 15th. Despite Fields suffering the hand injury that kept him out for a month in that game, the Bears still outgained the Vikings by a 275-220 margin in yards fueled by a rushing attack that gained 162 yards by averaging 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears are giving up 28.8 Points-Per-Game when on the road this season after the Lions scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the game to steal that victory. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less in their last game. They have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing three of their last 4 games. The Bears did get Justin Fields back under center last week and he played well by completing 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. And while the Vikings generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who average 5.65 or more YPP. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home after winning four or five of their last six games. Even without the injured Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are generating 378.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in 26.0 PPG. At home, Minnesota is averaging 402.6 total YPG. Joshua Dobbs is making a strong case that he should be one of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league. In his three starts in a Vikings uniform, he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception. He is another mobile quarterback as well who has rushed for 131 in his last three games on a 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average and another three touchdowns. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes — and Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season Over the Total against teams who allow opposing QBs to complete 61% or more of their passes. The Bears are completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Vikings have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). THE SITUATION:  Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th. Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens offense is getting most of the attention for head coach John Harbaugh’s team after they scored at least 31 points in their fifth straight game — but the play of the Baltimore defense deserves more attention. They held the Bengals to just 272 yards last week in their 14-point victory. The Ravens are holding their opponents to just 273.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.1 Points-Per-Game — and their defense has been stingy on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 256.0 total YPG and 16.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after beating an AFC North rival. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Ravens have played 41 of their last 63 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. Baltimore has played two straight Overs with both those contests seeing 54 or more combined points — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 straight Unders after playing two or more games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. They go back on the road where they are averaging -31.7 fewer YPG than their season average — and that is resulting in them scoring -3.8 fewer PPG away from home. To compound matters, Lamar Jackson will be without his favorite target Mark Andrews after he suffered an ankle injury last week that will keep him out for an extended period. The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total as a favorite in general. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Chargers have covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have played 33 of their last 51 games at home Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Los Angeles did generate 6.57 Yards-Per-Play against the Packers last week — but they have then played 35 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Ravens have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: We are probably destined to experience moments of infuriation tonight by having a rooting interest in head coach Brandon Staley’s game management tonight. But we are betting numbers rather than endorsing head coaches — and we do get to cheer Justin Herbert in his heroic efforts to overcome his coaching. Five of the Chargers’ six losses have been by three points or less. They have suffered three upset losses this season — but they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They will play with desperation tonight with their season on the line — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, while they have lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. Los Angeles does return home to SoFi where they are scoring a healthy 28.6 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore is riding high right now —  but they did benefit from a scheduling quirk that had them play their last three games at home. The Ravens tend to get overvalued by the betting public in moments like this. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against an AFC North rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Baltimore offense is clicking after generating 405 yards against the Bengals last week. The Ravens have scored 31 or more points in five straight games — and they have averaged 408.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. But Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three games. Lamar Jackson has been great this season — but now he has to run the offense without his favorite target Mark Andrews given the ankle injury he suffered last week.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games when favored. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (261) and the Atlanta Falcons (262). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3-point favorite back on November 12th. Atlanta (4-6) suffered their third straight upset loss in their 25-23 loss at Arizona as a 2-point underdog on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints only managed 280 yards of offense against the Vikings' defense in their last game. Quarterback Derek Carr got knocked out of that contest — but he has cleared the concussion protocol and will play in this game. New Orleans only managed a field goal in the first half of that contest — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. They only rushed for 65 yards as well against Minnesota — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. The Saints have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 298.5 total Yards-Per-Game which results in their home hosts scoring 18.2 Points-Per-Game. The Saints have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Their loss to the Cardinals two weeks ago was preceded by a 31-28 loss at home to Minnesota — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by three points or less. The Falcons return home where they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals — and Atlanta has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (261) and the Atlanta Falcons (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-6) has lost five of their last six games after their 27-14 loss at San Francisco as a 13.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (5-5) won their second game in a row with their 10-6 victory against New England in Germany as a 2-point favorite back on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have failed to score more than 20 points in five of their last six games — and now starting running back Rachaad White was a late addition to the injury report yesterday as questionable. Tampa Bay only managed 287 total yards last week against the 49ers. They are scoring only 19.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 304.7 Yards-Per-Game this season. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Bucs have struggled to get a running game going all season which has left the offense imbalanced as too reliant on the passing attack behind Baker Mayfield — so the potential absence of White is particularly concerning. Tampa Bay has not rushed for more than 81 yards in six straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in four or more games in a row including playing Unders in seven of their last eight games Under the Total under those circumstances. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in five straight contests. The Buccaneers stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road having lost two of their last three games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis only managed to generate 264 yards of offense two weeks ago against the Patriots defense. In their last three games with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback. the Colts are averaging just 277.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 21.3 PPG. Management released their veteran linebacker Shaq Leonard this week in a cost-cutting move made possible by the improved play of their younger players on their roster. Indy has allowed only 19 combined points in their last two games. The defense has produced 30 sacks this season from 12 different players — and they have 61 tackles for loss along with 65 hits on the quarterback which made Leonard’s contract expendable. Indianapolis has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 19 combined points were scored. They have played two Unders in a row — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 12 of their last 14 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as the favorite — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (199) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (200). THE SITUATION: California (5-6) has won two games in a row after their 27-15 victory at Stanford as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. UCLA (7-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 38-20 upset win at USC as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal dominated the Cardinal last week by gaining 455 yards of offense while holding them to just 289 total yards. Now this team needs to win this game to become bowl eligible for head coach Justin Wilcox who may be coaching for his job. The Golden Bears have not allowed more than 125 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. Their game with Stanford finished Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they were on a four-game losing streak before winning their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after losing four or five of their last six games. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in November. And while the Bruins are outscoring their opponents by +10.8 net Points-Per-Game, Cal has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. UCLA is a prime suspect for an emotional letdown after their upset victory against the Trojans last week. They did get outgained by -33 net yards by USC last week but their 11-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown was the winning difference for them. The Bruins have nothing at stake for this game outside of Senior Night — but head coach Chip Kelly may still be on the hot seat given the whispers a few weeks ago. The Golden Bears are scoring 31.5 PPG — and UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams who are scoring 31.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points with Kelly as their head coach. California has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points including eight of those last ten situations. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (199) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (175) and the Ball State Cardinals (176). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (9-2) has won three games in a row after their 23-10 victory against Buffalo as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Ball State (4-7) has won three of their last four games after their 34-3 win against Kent State as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks have already clinched their spot in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game next week against Toledo. They held the Bulls to just 278 yards last week — but they managed only 13 first downs while gaining 346 yards in the victory. Miami (OH) has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the RedHawks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against a MAC rival. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Miami (OH) is favored in this game despite not having anything at stake — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored. Ball State has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 28 or more points. They held the Golden Flashes to just 97 total yards in their victory last week. The Cardinals stay at home this week where they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November. The RedHawks have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (175) and the Ball State Cardinals (176). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (6-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 17-14 loss at South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisville (10-1) has won four games in a row after their 38-31 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Gamecocks to only 257 yards of offense last week — but they only managed 293 total yards in the three-point loss. Kentucky’s defense has been solid as they have held their last three opponents to just 307.0 total Yards-Per-Game — but they are only generating 272.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 19.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats have played 42 of their last 65 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival including four straight Under in those circumstances. Kentucky has also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a point-spread loss. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kentucky will find it difficult to move the ball against this Cardinals defense. The Wildcats rank 71st in the nation Rushing Success Rate behind a mediocre offensive line that ranks 99th in Line Yards. Louisville ranks 17th in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed fueled by a defensive line that ranks 6th in Line Yards. The Cardinals also rank 17th in Opponent Passing Success Allowed. Kentucky stays on the road where they are generating only 278.3 total YPG — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road. Louisville has the ACC Championship Game on deck next week against Florida State. The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have scored at least 31 points in three straight games, they have then played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. They did allow the Hurricanes to generate 7.47 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP. They return home where they have held their guests to just 277.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 12.5 PPG. The Cardinals have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5-10 point range. Louisville does play at a methodical pace on offense to help keep their defense rested — they rank 100th in the nation in seconds-per-play. But the Cardinals rank only 91st in the FBS in Offensive Line Yards — and now they face this Kentucky defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and Louisville has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points including eight of those last ten circumstances. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (110) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (109). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle lost a tough one last week with Jason Myers missing a potential game-winning field goal as time expired against the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. He did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning kick. They will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury — but that opens the door for rookie Zach Charbonnet to demonstrate what he can do as the featured back after starring in college at Michigan and then UCLA. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle knows this 49ers team very well after playing them three times last season after losing to them in the playoffs on the road by a 41-23 score. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 home games under head coach Pete Carroll after losing their previous game on the road. San Francisco is healthy again on offense with wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Trent Williams back from injury — but they suffered a big blow on the other side of the line of scrimmage last week after All-Pro safety Talanga Hufanga injured his knee which will keep him out the rest of the season. The 49ers go back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points including failing to cover the point spread in those last three situations. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (110) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (109). Best of luck for us -- Frank.       

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Buccaneers to just 287 total yards last week to control that game. San Francisco has held seven of their opponents to less than 20 points — and their last three opponents have scored only 16.0 Points-Per-Game against them. The addition of defensive end Chase Young from Washington at the trade deadline gave them a second dynamic pass rusher to pair with Nick Bosa on the other side. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay last week — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted a perfect passer rating in the game by completing 21 of 25 passes for 333 yards last week — but the Niners have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. They generated 7.64 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging 7.0 or more YPP in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. The Niners have played 16 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Seattle only gained 291 total yards last week in their loss to the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. While he did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning field goal (Jason Myers missed the kick), it would not be terribly surprising if he was less than 100% in this game or got knocked out of the game against this now even better Niners pass rush. Seattle has only generated 310.3 total YPG in their last three games which has resulted in a 16.0 PPG scoring average — and they will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Niners score 27.9 PPG — but the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams scoring 27 or more PPG. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Seattle has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against NFC West rivals — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and the 49ers have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-7) lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a 31-19 upset loss at home against the New York Giants as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (7-3) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 33-10 victory at Carolina as an 11-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Commanders generated 403 yards of offense last week — but it was six turnovers that did them in. Despite their losing run, the Washington offense is beginning to click under first-year offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy. In their last three games, the Commanders are generating 397.0 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are scoring a healthy 24.0  Points-Per-Game in their last four games despite only reaching 19 points last week. But the defense has been a disaster for Washington. They rank last in the NFL by allowing 27.7 PPG — and they have given up 29 or more points in three of their last four contests. They are 29th in the league by giving up 372.8 YPG — and that mark rises to 398.0 YPG when they are playing on the road. The biggest problem has been their secondary as the Commanders are giving up 259 passing YPG which is the third most in the NFL. Washington has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with six days or less of rest. And while the Cowboys average 32:31 minutes per game in Time of Possession, the Commanders have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who average 32 or more minutes per game with the football. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Cowboys are scoring 39.0 PPG in their last four games while reaching at least 33 points in three of those games. Quarterback Dak Prescott has produced a Passer Rating of 119 in his last five contests. The Dallas defense has held their last three opponents to just 217.0 total YPG in their last three games — but they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding their last three opponents to 225.0 or fewer YPG. The Cowboys have benefited from facing a slate of mediocre quarterbacks: Daniel Jones (twice), Mac Jones, Bryce Young, Joshua Dobbs (with Arizona), and Zac Wilson. Sam Howell may remind everyone about the significant loss which was the season-ending injury to cornerback Trevor Diggs. Dallas returns home where they have played 13 of their last 20  home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Commanders have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Washington-Dallas CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia comes into this Super Bowl rematch with confidence and momentum. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory at home against an NFC East rival. The Philly defense has struggled lately after the Cowboys generated 6.25 Yards-Per-Play to gain 406 yards against them — but the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Washington generated 6.94 YPP for 472 yards against them in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after allowing 375 or more yards in two straight contests and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after allowing their last two opponents to generate 6.0 or more YPP. They have also covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack — and that will help protect his defense. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against opponents who average 32 or more minutes of Time of Possession on offense. The Chiefs only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. They scored all 21 of their points in the first half and almost blew their three-touchdown halftime lead. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a halftime lead of 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after leading by 21 or more points at halftime in their last contest. The Chiefs return home to Arrowhead Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Andy Reid is great coming off the bye week — but that is a straight-up number that does not take the point spread into account. For the record, the Eagles have covered the point spread in their two regular season games off the bye week under Sirianni. More importantly, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles outlasted the Cowboys despite only gaining 292 total yards against them. With tight end Dallas Goedert out for this game with a forearm injury and Jalen Hurts dealing with a nagging knee injury, the Philly offense is not as powerful as the one that lost by a 38-35 score to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last February 12th. The victory came on the heels of a 38-31 win at Washington the week prior — and the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against NFC East rivals by seven points or less. They were trailing at halftime by a 17-14 score to the Cowboys after going into halftime with a 17-10 deficit to the Commanders — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing 17 or more points in the first half in two straight games. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Kansas City only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. The Chiefs’ defense has become elite — they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 15.9 PPG and 288.2 total YPG. They lead the league by allowing only 176 passing YPG. They rank first in the NFL in both sacks and                               Quarterback Hits per Game (at 7). Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. But they have struggled to get their run game going lately as they have not rushed for more than 96 yards in five straight games. By averaging only 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games, the offense is getting off schedule and Mahomes is facing too many third-and-long situations. When Mahomes had Tyreek Hill as a weapon, he could overcome those circumstances — but his young wide receiving corps now is unreliable and drop too many passes. It is not a coincidence that the Chiefs have played all five of those games Under the Total because they cannot sustain drives — and they lack the explosiveness in their pass game now. Mahomes intended air yards per pass attempt is at a career low this season. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.5 total YPG which is resulting in just 14.0 PPG. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight those games Under the Total in November. They have also played 15 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks. Head coach Andy Reid’s teams going back his tenure in Philadelphia have played 26 of their 33 games Under the Total after a bye week — and his Chiefs teams have played 12 of their 15 games Under the Total after a bye week. The Eagles have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a bye week — and Sirianni’s teams have played 5 of their 6 games Under the Total against opponents winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (473) and the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). The Broncos have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG at home where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a favorite of three points or loss. Minnesota followed up their upset victory on the road against Atlanta with their upset win at home against the Saints last week. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. And while they raced out to a 24-3 halftime lead last week, they have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after taking a halftime lead of 21 or more points in their last contest. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 8 straight Unders from Weeks 10 through 13. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (473) and the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). But the Vikings’ defense ranks sixth in Defensive DVOA over that span — more on that group below. Payton is being credited for “fixing” Russell Wilson who “was never, ever washed” — the problem was last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett (who apparently forced-fed him a box of donuts every morning while the former Seattle quarterback was giving him the playbook that would finally “Let Russ Cook”). Sarcasm aside, credit goes to Payton for getting this team to play much better than their 50-point loss to Miami earlier this season. Let’s leave it as simply ironic that the recipe to get Russ Cooking again came from the old Seahawks playbook under the much-maligned offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was accused of holding Wilson back. A big question in the offseason was whether Payton could use his old blueprints that were successful with his quarterback in New Orleans — but who would have guessed that those game plans were initially designed for Taysom Hill rather than Drew Brees? And that’s my point: Wilson is playing better because he is not being asked to do much. He has less than 30 pass attempts in four straight games. The last time Wilson did not pass the ball at least 30 times was early in the 2018-19 campaign after he endured six sacks in the opening two games of the season (and it was later in the year when the “Let Russ Cook” mantra was born criticizing Schottenheimer for not drawing up more passing plays). While Wilson’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is great, that’s not why Denver gave him $161 million in guaranteed money along with a $500K signing bonus. Even with the fewer dropbacks, Wilson has still been sacked at least four times in four of his last five games. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Denver has lost all four games this season when Wilson is asked to pass the ball more than 29 times. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total YPG — and they have been getting outgained by -32.0 net YPG in those contests. At home, the Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG while getting outgained by -23.2 net YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favorited by up to three points. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season. Quarterback Josh Dobbs has been productive with his arm and his legs while not making mistakes. He has completed 67.2% of his passes in his two starts for the Vikings for 426 passing yards while adding another 110 rushing yards. For the season including his time with Arizona, he has 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions (none with Minnesota). He will not have Justin Jefferson to throw to just yet for this game — but rookie Jordan Addison has been a breakout star in his absence and tight end T.J. Hockensen has been reliable. Dobbs’ threat with his legs has unlocked their running game as they have generated 133.5 rushing YPG in his two games while running the ball 33 times in both games. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They held the Saints to only 65 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They have won four of their five games on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.0 PPG and holding their home hosts to 19.6 PPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 upset loss against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 16-12 upset loss at Las Vegas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo outgained the Broncos by +69 net yards despite having their offense on the field for just 22:39 minutes of that game. Once again, turnovers did the Bills in with Josh Allen throwing two interceptions with the team spotting Denver a -3 net turnover margin. Buffalo has now lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and it is a leading reason why the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in six straight contests. Feeling something had to be done to change the temperature inside the club, head coach Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with former Joe Burrow guru at LSU   Joe Brady. The production of the offense remains good — Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in Success Rate, fourth in Expected Points Added per play, and third in 3rd Down Efficiency. The Bills' fortunes will change when they stop making so many mistakes with the football. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or more games in a row. And in their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those contests. The Bills did rush for 192 yards last week which was an encouraging long-term sign for them moving forward — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games coming off playing on Monday Night Football. Now they play a Jets team that has forced only two turnovers in their last three games. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Jets offense is simply too limited with Zach Wilson under center with him still making rookie mistakes. They have not scored a touchdown in 11 straight quarters. Wilson has only one touchdown pass in his last 189 throws over the last five games. His Passer Rating of 74 this season is last in the NFL for starting quarterbacks. Granted, a banged-up offensive line that was going to be a problem for this team even when at full strength has compounded the matter. And now wide receiver Garrett Wilson is listed as questionable with an elbow injury. The Jets rank 30th in the NFL by scoring just 16.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are last in the league with only eight offensive touchdowns, last with a 25.0% 3rd Down Rate, and last with a 22.7% Red Zone Touchdown Rate. Wilson has attempted 40 and 49 passes in the last two weeks which is far from ideal — and New York has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after playing two games in a row where they attempted 40 or more passes. They have played four straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games played on turf. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo will have the additional motivation to avenge their 22-16 upset loss in New York against the Jets in the opening week of the season on September 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven points or less. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (459) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (460). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 20-6 loss at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-3) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 34-3 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have scored only 22 combined points in their last two games with rookie Will Levis under center. They gained only 209 total yards last week against the Buccaneers defense. Tennessee has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while they covered the point spread only once in their last five games, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They stay on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Jaguars scored their lone field goal in the first half last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three points in the first half in the previous game. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. A -4 net turnover margin held Jacksonville back last week — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. They stay at home where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in games played in November — and Tennessee has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (459) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (379). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (8-2) has won five of their last six games after their 62-17 victory against Stanford as a 21.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (10-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-28 victory against Utah as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Huskies have been living dangerously since their triumphant victory against Oregon last month. Their last four victories have all been by ten points or less including a shaky 15-7 win against Arizona State. While the Washington offense is dynamic with Michael Penix, Jr. under center, their defense is below average. The Huskies rank 68th in the nation in Points Allowed per Opponent’s Scoring Opportunities inside their 40-yard line. They do not put pressure on the quarterback as they rank 131st in the nation in both sacks per drop back and run stuff rate. Opponents are converting on 42.2% of their third downs, the 102nd-worst mark in the FBS. They also rank 127th in the nation in Opponents Rush Success Rate Allowed — and that is a scary number when playing this Oregon State team. As it is, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Utes generated 6.70 Yards-Per-Play against them — and the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their previous opponent to average 6.25 or more YPP. Washington has scored at least 35 points in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after the first month of the season. Oregon State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Beavers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. They outgained the Cardinal by +274 net yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more net yards. Oregon State is a physical team that can make things very difficult for the Huskies. They have a great offensive line that is healthy again with center Jake Levengood returning to action. Led by running backs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, the Beavers rank third in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Those two running backs are combining to average 152.1 rushing YPG. Oregon State also ranks 15th in the nation in Passing Explosiveness with D.J. Uiagalelei under center. He ranks 13th in the nation by averaging 10.9 air yards per pass — and he has 42 completions of 20 or more yards, ranking 10th in the nation. The Beavers rank 23rd in the nation in Points Allowed per Scoring Opportunity. Their defense will make things difficult on Penix — opposing quarterbacks are completing under 60% of their passes with just four touchdown passes and ten interceptions. In the last three seasons, Oregon State has given up only 14 touchdown passes while picking off 25 passes.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon State will be motivated to avenge a 24-21 loss at Washington as a 4.5-point underdog last season on November 4th. The Beavers get this rematch in Corvallis where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 18 games while beating the point spread number by at least 10 points in those contests. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the Oregon State Beavers (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (404) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (403). THE SITUATION: Houston (4-6) lost for the third time in their last four games in a 24-14 upset loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma State (7-3) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 45-3 upset loss at Central Florida on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston will have plenty of motivation on Senior Day this afternoon. They need to win the final two games of the season to become bowl-eligible. They can also play the role of spoiler and ruin the Cowboys' Big 12 Championship Game aspirations. The Cougars have bounced back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bearcats outgained them by -129 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards. Houston has covered the point spread once in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a blowout loss by 35 or more points. It may be difficult for the Cowboys to pick themselves off the mat after such a deflating loss where they gave up a whopping 592 total yards of offense. The offense really struggled as well with senior quarterback Alex Bowman throwing three interceptions. That game was just the fourth time in the last three years that Oklahoma State did not score more than 14 points nor score more than three points in the first half (they were shut out in the first half last week). The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of those previous games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 games after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. They could not get their ground game going against the Knights as they ran for just 52 yards on 25 carries — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last contest. Now they stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -5.7 Points-Per-Game — and they are getting outgained by -71.7 net Yards-Per-Game given their defense surrendering 442.0 YPG to their home hosts. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-62 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Houston Cougars (404) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (403). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (311) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati should rebound with a strong effort after getting their winning streak on their home field by that plucky Texans team. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a loss by six points or less. The Cincinnati defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. While Houston generated 7.45 Yards-Per-Play, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury. Baltimore stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when favored.
 
FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging an upset loss including covering the point spread in their last four opportunities for revenge from an upset setback. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (311) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals' defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. But Cincinnati has played 29 of their last 39 games Under the Total on the road after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game — and they have played 37 of their last 52 road games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 20 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Additionally, the Bengals have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cincinnati offense will not be at 100% tonight with wide receiver Tee Higgins out with a hamstring injury. Missing Higgins hurts because the Bengals are not getting enough from their running game — they have not rushed for more than 66 yards in their last two games which means that the Ravens' defense can focus on taking away wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase without getting burned too badly. Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. In their four road games this season, they are only generating 283.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.8 PPG. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 45 of their last 63 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as a dog. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four contests. They have covered the point spread just once in their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then played 41 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury — but they still have cornerback Brandon Stephens to cover Chase.  They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and they are holding their opponents to just 273.6 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 15.7 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when favored. Baltimore has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by three points or less to their opponent. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (310) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (309). THE SITUATION: Ohio (7-3) has won two of their last three games after their 20-10 win at Buffalo as a 9-point favorite last Tuesday. Central Michigan (5-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-28 loss at Western Michigan as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road against a Mid-American Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a conference opponent. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit win on the road. Furthermore, the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The biggest question I had for this team in the offseason was how quickly could Kurtis Rourke regain the form that led him to winning the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year last season The fifth-year quarterback threw 25 touchdown passes with only four interceptions while posting an adjusted completion percentage of 78% before getting injured near the end of the season and missing the MAC Championship Game and the Arizona Bowl. Tim Albin is building a culture in his image in his third year as the Bobcats’ head coach — but they lost six of the 14 players on defense that played at least 300 snaps. After a dramatic improvement on defense in the second half of the season, their biggest weakness appears to be a defensive line that returns only one starter for their 4-3 look — and they replaced both safeties from a unit that ranked 117th in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Well, Rourke has been solid, if not spectacular so far this season. He ranks 21st in the nation with a 50% positive Expected Points Added rate per dropback. The Ohio defense has been outstanding as they rank 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Stuff Rate and 11th in Opponent Offensive Line Yards Allowed. The Bobcats have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point setback. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded whether their disappointing 4-8 season last year was a fluke — or a harbinger of a slide in the Chippewas program. This team finished 9-4 in 2021 — and they had a 26-13 record in the first three seasons under head coach Jim McElwain before the dip last year. The Chippewas were only outgained by -7.1 YPG but suffered three upset losses while ranking second in the FBS with a -18 net turnover margin. Nine starters returned on defense from a group whose 11 of 18 players who were on the field for 150 or more snaps were freshmen or sophomores. But McElwain has questions at quarterback and seems to lack playmakers on offense. After ten games into this season, it looks like their success in 2021 was an aberration. Sophomore quarterback Jase Bauer ranks 107th of 146 qualifying QBs in EPA per dropback — and he ranks 109th in completion percentage. Central Michigan generates only 313.3 Yards-Per-Game on the road which results in just 19.3 Points-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in conference action including losing the point spread in five of their last six games against MAC rivals — and the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against conference opponents. 8* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Ohio Bobcats (310) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (266) and the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION:  Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th. Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 317 total yards last week on the road against the Bengals. Their defense allowed 397 total yards to Cincinnati who averaged 7.49 Yards-Per-Play. The Bills have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.0 or more YPP. They did limit the Bengals to just 54 rushing yards — and they have played 9 of their last 14 Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. Buffalo’s run defense is playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have not given up more than 96 rushing yards in three straight games. This run defense will be critical in slowing down the Broncos offense that has become run-first to compensate for the limitations of Russell Wilson at this point in his career. Wilson only attempted 19 passes against the Chiefs while running the ball 40 times. Denver has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a double-digit upset win as an underdog getting six or more points. They have also played 6 straight Unders after a double-digit victory. The Broncos' focus on running the ball is helping their defense as well as they have not given up more than 19 points in their last three games. All three of those games finished Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They have also played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. The Broncos have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 7 straight games Under the Total in Weeks 10-13 — and 6 of the last 8 games between these teams in Buffalo have finished Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (266) and the Denver Broncos (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The “sharps” are on the Broncos tonight while the public is backing the Bills. It is interesting that Buffalo is laying about a touchdown despite seeing their last five games all decided by six points or less. The thing about the “sharps” is that they are wrong lots of times — just the public is. I suspect this is a “get right” game for a Bills team under sharp scrutiny right now. The Bills were 6-3 at this point of the season last year before they rattled off seven straight victories. The conventional wisdom of the very smart sports people is that Buffalo’s offense is faltering — but the numbers tell a different story. Their Success Rate is up from 47.5% last year to 47.8% this season — and their Expected Points Per Drive from 0.47 last season has risen to 0.66 EPA/Drive this year. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN) rank them as the second-best offense in the league. The Bills are not meeting point spread expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in five straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Turnovers are hurting this team — and Josh Allen has been too loose with the football trying to force big plays. After their -2 net turnover margin last week, they have lost the turnover battle in four straight contests. But the Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in four straight games. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They return home to Highmark Stadium where they are 4-0 while scoring 31.0 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.7 PPG and outgaining their guests by +84.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Denver returns to the field after benefiting from Patrick Mahomes playing a rare bad game while being under the weather — they enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin after forcing five Chiefs turnovers. But the Broncos only gained 240 yards in that game despite their offense being on the field for 33:47 minutes. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory against an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they posted a +2 or better net turnover margin. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. Their defense is giving up 528.7 total YPG on the road which is resulting in their home hoss generating 39.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (263) minus the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The best unit in this game is the New York defense which is almost single-handedly keeping them in the playoff hunt. The Jets have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets limited Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. After their embarrassing effort on national television on Monday, they should play better on, yet again, national television tonight. New York has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss by 21 or more points. And after the Giants only gained 194 yards against them two weeks ago, the Jets have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. Las Vegas played their best game of the season last week as the locker room came together to celebrate that the Wicked Witch of the West, head coach Josh McDaniels, had been sacked. I am encouraged by the leadership qualities of interim head coach Antonio Pierce — but it is difficult for any football team to sustain high emotions for multiple weeks at a time. The Raiders have enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in two straight games — but they have ten failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. The Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I have one nice thing to comment about Jets’ quarterback Zach Wilson: he has thrown only one interception in his last six games this season. He may have a short leash if he struggles with the near-permanent Aaron Rodgers backup, Tim Boyle, waiting in the wings. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (263) minus the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-4) has won two games in a row after their 27-6 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Detroit (6-2) has won five of their last six games after their 26-14 win at home against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite back on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have emerged as the darlings of the NFL this season — and bettors certainly adore them after starting the season with a 6-2 ATS mark after closing out last season on a 9-1 ATS run. Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. I don’t think the Lions have proven enough to be treated as road favorites — traveling out west, mind you — against AFC playoff teams. Yet Detroit is a popular choice for betters even in this spot. The biggest game the Lions have played in the Dan Campbell era was not their opening game of the season in Kansas City (which they pulled the upset, of course) — it was their lone point spread loss in the second half of the season last year when they got beat at Carolina as a 1.5 road favorite on December 24th by a 37-23 score against a Panthers team with Steve Wilks serving as an interim head coach. The Lions are taking care of business now after their statement win against the Chiefs (playing without Travis Kelce) — but they have benefited from some soft competition. Their five victories against Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas represent five teams with losing records that combine for a 15-28 mark. Their lone loss during their last six games was their 38-6 blowout loss at Baltimore that has somehow just gotten excused away as “everyone knows that NFC teams can’t beat Lamar Jackson the first time they play him” — as if the Ravens average margin of victory in that 18-1 mark against NFC with Lamar is 20 Points-Per-Game or something. Can we just slow our roll a bit before we crown Detroit as champions? They have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They did hold the Raiders to just 157 total yards in the game where the Las Vegas locker room coup against Josh McDaniels came to fruition — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 200 total yards in their last game. Jared Goff is playing great — but he remains much more effective when playing at home where he has a 106.5 QBR along with a 72.2% completion percentage, an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average with eight touchdown passes, and three interceptions. Those numbers dip when on the road this season where he has an 88.0 QBR with a 65.0% completion percentage, a 6.9 YPA, four touchdown passes, and two interceptions. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when favored by up to seven points. I am not sold at all on this Los Angeles team under head coach Brandon Staley — but they made the playoffs last year and will be in the mix to return to the postseason again this year as long as Justin Herbert is still under center. The encouraging aspect of this team is the improved play of their defense, albeit against lesser competition. They registered eight sacks last week against the Jets while posting a +3 net turnover margin. They are tied for first in the NFL with a +9 net turnover margin. They have held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less with the lone exception being Kansas City. These are good signs for a defense that boasts Nick Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have only registered three wins by double-digits on the road in the last three seasons — and they covered the point spread in all 3 games after that accomplishment. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Their improved defense — and not getting into shootouts — is a more reliable formula for success for them. Los Angeles has played five straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing four or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Three of the Chargers' four losses have been decided by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (253) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (254). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-16 loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on November 2nd. Tampa Bay (3-5) has lost four games in a row after their 39-37 loss at Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans only rushed for 105 yards against the Steelers' defense last week with the offense relying on the arm of rookie quarterback Will Levis who passed for 262 yards. With this being his third NFL start, the initial book is being written on the former Kentucky QB — so he will likely experience some growing pains sooner rather than later as opposing defensive coaches discover his tendencies and weaknesses. Tennessee has not scored more than 16 points in five of their eight games this year — and they have failed to score more than 16 points in three of their last four contests. The Titans have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total. Additionally, Tennessee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Tampa Bay had not scored more than 18 points in three straight games before exploding for their highest-scoring output of the season. But the Buccaneers got torched by C.J. Stroud who broke a rookie quarterback passing record with 443 passing yards. Head coach Todd Bowles was embarrassed by the play of his defense — and he certainly worked his team and coaching staff hard this week to take care of business against another first-year QB this afternoon. Tampa Bay has a solid defense still that has held five of their opponents to 20 points or less. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored.  

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in Weeks 10-13. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (253) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (171) and the BYU Cougars (172). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (5-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 28-21 upset loss at home to Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-7 loss at West Virginia as a 12-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones only managed 333 yards against the suspect Jayhawks defense last week. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss to a Big 12 rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Cyclones did hold Kansas to just 74 rushing yards last week -- and they have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. Iowa State is a good defensive team that ranks in the top 40 in the nation in Opponent Quality Drives Allowed and Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. They also rank 16th in the FBS in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Cyclones have held their last three opponents to just 293.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in just 18.7 Points-Per-Game. But Iowa State struggles to move the football as they are scoring just 21.8 PPG on the road. Freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown seven interceptions which makes the passing attack unreliable. But the Cyclones running game ranks 131st in the nation in Success Rate — and they are last in the nation in Line Yards established by their offensive line. Iowa State also ranks 100th in Finishing Drives — so Red Zone chances should more often result in field goal attempts. The Cyclones only gained 75 rushing yards last week — and they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. BYU only gained 243 total yards last week in scoring only seven points last week against the Mountaineers. Fifth-year quarterback Kedon Slovis missed that game with an arm injury that has him questionable for this contest. Junior college transfer Jake Retzlaff completed only 24 of 42 passes for 210 yards under center in his absence. In their last three games, the Cougars are generating only 282.0 total YPG which results in only 13.3 PPG. And while BYU has scored only a field goal in the first half of their last two games, they have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. Furthermore, the Cougars have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. BYU surrendered 567 total yards to West Virginia with 336 of those yards being gained on the ground — but they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after allowing 525 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after giving up 275 or more yards in their last game. The Cougars do rank 37th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drives Rate Allowed — and they come back home where they are allowing only 14.3 PPG with their 354.5 YPG allowed -56.4 net YPG below their season average overall.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set at 42 or lower. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (171) and the BYU Cougars (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (4-5) has lost two games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 24-21 loss at Duke as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina State (6-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory in a 20-6 win against Miami (FL) at home as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS PLUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest lost to the Blue Devils despite outgaining them by +133 net yards in that game. Look for the Demon Deacons to respond this afternoon with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to an ACC rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by seven points or less against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. The biggest question I had for this team in the preseason deep dive was whether Wake Forest’s seven-game bowl streak was in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson. Only 11 starters returned from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Clawson is getting solid play out of fourth-year sophomore Mitch Griffis at quarterback — he completed 16 of 19 passes for 241 yards while adding 55 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in the losing effort against Duke. The Demon Deacons played what still remains a good Clemson team close earlier this season in a 17-12 loss. With four victories and games at Notre Dame and Syracuse on deck, this is likely the critical game to maintain Clawson’s bowl streak alive. NC State was riding high after following up their 24-17 upset win against Clemson as a 10-point underdog with their upset win against the Hurricanes. But then sophomore quarterback M.J. Morris surprised the coaching staff by retaining his year of eligibility by taking his redshirt option for the rest of the season. Now head coach Dave Doeren has to turn back to Brennan Armstrong who got benched at the end of September for Morris due to ineffective play. Expectations were high when Armstrong transferred in from Virginia to reunite with offensive coordinator Robert Anae who was his former OC with the Cavaliers. But Armstrong did not fit with Doeren’s more compact offensive philosophy than his successful 2021 campaign with Anae. He completed only 58.8% of his passes with five touchdown passes and six interceptions. His 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average is a career-low. The Wolfpack appear primed for an emotional letdown under these circumstances — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Both of their upset wins were at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row at home. Now they go back on the road where they are only scoring 17.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 road games when favored including five of their last seven games under those circumstances. NC State may have six wins but they have benefitted from a 3-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They have been outgained this season by -13.6 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest has a 51-38-1 ATS record as an underdog under Clawson — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their 48 games as an underdog following a loss with Clawson as their head coach. This is the Demon Deacons' last home game of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (133) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (134). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (4-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 34-3 loss at Louisville as a 9-point underdog last Saturday. Boston College (6-3) has won five games in a row with their 17-10 win at Syracuse as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Despite their 6-3 record, the Eagles are a home underdog in this game. While the betting public is on Boston College this afternoon, one look at their resume explains why they are getting the points. Five of their six wins have been by one scoring possession — and their victories are against a bevy of suspect teams like Army, Connecticut, Virginia, Holy Cross, an erratic Georgia Tech team, and the Orange. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win against an ACC rival. And while that game finished below the 47.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a game that finished Under the Total. The Eagles forced four Syracuse turnovers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing three or more turnovers in their last game. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether head coach Jeff Hafley learned the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat. He is getting some wins now against lesser competition — but this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as an underdog getting up to three points. Virginia Tech had been playing better lately with the move to sophomore Kyron Drones at quarterback — they upset Pittsburgh and beat Wake Forest and Syracuse over a four-game stretch with their lone loss being at Florida State. But they were flat on the road against the Cardinals while gaining only 140 total yards. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference opponent by 10 or more points. And while they only generated 2.75 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after failing to average more than 3.75 YPP in their last game. Virginia Tech has lost both of their games decided by one scoring possession. They have outgained their opponents by +30.9 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games when favored by seven points or less. 10* CFB Saturday Discounted Deal with the Virginia Tech Hokies (133) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (113) and the Chicago Bears (114). THE SITUATION: Carolina (1-7) responded to their first victory of the season against Houston with a 27-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (2-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-17 loss at New Orleans as a 10-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These Totals set in the 30s are dangerous — like the trouble that may triggered by uttering “Beetlejuice”, I fear even mentioning the two other units that can score touchdowns besides the offense. A non-offensive touchdown puts these Unders at severe risk — but the betting public knows that too. Frankly, these teams play a lot of Overs — and I considered the Over strongly. But the reason why these teams are playing so many higher-scoring games is because they have played some of the better offenses in the league. Both of these teams are improving on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina held the Texans to only 229 total yards of offense two weeks ago — just before C.J. Stroud then set a rookie record for passing yards last week when he torched a good Tampa Bay defense for 470 passing yards. They then held the Colts to just 198 total yards — but two Bryce Young interceptions were returned for touchdowns (not going to say Beetlejuice) in that contest to launch Indianapolis to 28 points. Young only had four interceptions going into that game — and the Panthers have just 11 turnovers on the season. Expect head coach Frank Reich to dial up a conservative game plan like he did in their 15-13 win against Houston. Carolina trailed by a 20-3 score at halftime against Indy — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last six games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Carolina offense lacks weapons to help their rookie quarterback — they are generating only 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is generating 16.3 Points-Per-Game. I thought their offensive line would be a strength for them this season — but perhaps the season-ending bicep injury to left guard Brady Christensen early in the year has disproportionately impacted the cohesion of that unit. The Panthers are averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite investing in running back Miles Sanders as a free agent who had a 5.0 YPC average in his career during his time with Philadelphia. Not surprisingly, Young has been more effective at home where he is completing 68.9% of his passes with an 81.3 QBR. On the road, his completion percentage drops to 58.1% with a QBR of 72.2. His road 5.25 Yards-Per-Attempt compares to his meager 5.5 YPA mark when playing at home — Reich has him only dinking and dunking. The Bears' defense is starting to play better — they held the Saints to only 301 total yards last week in a losing effort. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 296.0 total YPG which has resulted in 22.0 PPG. Some critics questioned the trading of a second-round draft pick for Washington defensive end Montez Sweat last week — but this team was starving for any semblance of a pass rush. They would not have made the deal if they were not confident they could sign Sweat to a contract extension — which quickly did. He offers them a good foundation for finally getting some “war daddies” on the defensive line. It’s a start. The Bears' run defense has already been solid — they are holding their opponents to 3.3 YPC which is resulting in just 80 rushing YPG. At home, their opponents are generating just 3.1 YPG and gaining a meter 68 rushing YPG. They have not allowed more than 97 rushing yards in six straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. Chicago has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. It was turnovers that did the Bears in last week with rookie Tyson Bagent throwing three picks and the Bears enduring a -5 net turnover margin. I like some things about the rookie from Shepard University who should have been drafted after his impressive Senior Bowl performance — but offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is limiting his passes down the field and opponents are getting a book on him now (and not getting fooled by an opening bomb in their first series as if that suggests the playbook is opening up). Chicago is going to focus on running the ball against a Panthers defense that is allowing 4.4 YPC and 132 rushing YPG. Al Michaels will be especially grumpy that his immense talent is wasted on calling a game between these with a collective 3-14 record (that’s $333K per win for his tonight’s wage) — but he will cheer up when discovering he will be early for his dinner reservations at Gene and Georgetti’s as this is going to be a quick game with fewer offensive possessions. The Bears have played 32 of their last 53 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse turnover margin.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on Thursday nights. 20* NFL Carolina-Chicago Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (113) and the Chicago Bears (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (114) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (113). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-17 loss at New Orleans as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. Carolina (1-7) responded to their first victory of the season against Houston with a 27-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS:  Al Michaels will be especially grumpy tonight that his “immense” talent is being wasted on calling a game between these with a collective 3-14 record (that’s $333K per win for his tonight’s wage). These are not good football teams — but there is more reason for optimism with the Bears playing at home at Soldier Field tonight. They have some building blocks. D.J. Moore is the difference maker at wide receiver that the Panthers’ rookie quarterback Bryce Young really needs (of course, Moore was the necessary piece for Chicago to trade their number one pick to Carolina so they could draft Young). Tremaine Edmunds is a playmaker being asked to take the traditional Bears’ middle linebacker role heralded by Dick Butkus, Mike Singletary, and Brian Urlacher. Some critics questioned the trading of a second-round draft pick for Washington defensive end Montez Sweat last week — but this team was starving for any semblance of a pass rush. They would not have made the deal if they were not confident they could sign Sweat to a contract extension — which quickly did. He offers them a good foundation for finally getting some “war daddies” on the defensive line. It’s a start. The Bears' run defense has already been solid — they are holding their opponents to 3.3 YPC which is resulting in just 80 rushing YPG. At home, their opponents are generating just 3.1 YPG and gaining a meter 68 rushing YPG. The Bears' defense is starting to play better — they held the Saints to only 301 total yards last week in a losing effort. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 296.0 total YPG which has resulted in 22.0 PPG. And while running back Khalil Herbert is not likely to be activated off the injured list for tonight’s game, the Bears rushing attack is in good hands with the underappreciated veteran D’Onta Foreman who will have revenge on his mind tonight facing his former team. Foreman ran the ball 20 times of 83 yards last week against a good Saints’ defense — and now he returns home where he is generating 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago is going to focus on running the ball against a Panthers defense that is allowing 4.4 YPC and 132 rushing YPG. The Bears outgained New Orleans on the road last week by a 368 to 301 margin — but it was turnovers that did the Bears in last week with rookie Tyson Bagent throwing three picks and the Bears enduring a -5 net turnover margin. I like some things about the rookie from Shepard University who should have been drafted after his impressive Senior Bowl performance. Chicago has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 44 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up loss. The Panthers' offense lacks weapons to help their rookie quarterback — they are generating only 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is generating 16.3 Points-Per-Game. I thought their offensive line would be a strength for them this season — but perhaps the season-ending bicep injury to left guard Brady Christensen early in the year has disproportionately impacted the cohesion of that unit. The Panthers are averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite investing in running back Miles Sanders as a free agent who had a 5.0 YPC average in his career during his time with Philadelphia. Not surprisingly, Young has been more effective at home where he is completing 68.9% of his passes with an 81.3 QBR. On the road, his completion percentage drops to 58.1% with a QBR of 72.2. His road 5.25 Yards-Per-Attempt compares to his meager 5.5 YPA mark when playing at home — Reich has him only dinking and dunking. Now after playing their last two games at home, the Panthers go back on the road where they are winless in four games while getting outscored by -15.8 net Points-Per-Game. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a two-game home stand. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games on the road including failing to cover the point spread in all four of their games away from home this season. And while the Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Panthers are dealing with a bevy of injuries impacting what was already a suspect roster — most notably, their best defensive player Brian Burns is out with a concussion, safety Jeremy Chin is on injured reserve, and wide receiver D.J. Chark is doubtful.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago returns home where they are outgaining their opponents by +71.2 net YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after losing their last two games on the road. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Chicago Bears (114) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (475). THE SITUATION: New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York is rounding into form with Zach Wilson under center with three straight victories and a 3-0-1 ATS mark in their last four games after their push against the Giants. Despite all the criticism he receives, the Jets have a 9-7 straight-up record with Wilson as their starting quarterback. He has not thrown an interception in four of his last five games which puts his defense in a position to win games. The Jets have an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. New York has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Chargers offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. My biggest question for the Chargers in my deep dive in the offseason was whether Brandon Staley is really a genius — or was his brilliance all simply stemming from the fortune of having Aaron Donald roaming the line of scrimmage back when he was defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. Staley was the defensive coordinator for the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl-winning team — and his aggressive man defense was successful because Donald could consistently generate pressure on the quarterback without the need for blitzes. But with a force in the middle like Donald for the Chargers, Staley’s defenses have been below average. Los Angeles has ranked 23rd and 20th in total defense the last two seasons with run defense being the biggest problem as they have ranked 30th and 28th in the NFL by allowing 138.9 and 145.8 rushing YPG. Overcompensating to slow down the pass has not been effective without a player of Donald’s talent. Staley was only a defensive coordinator for one year with the Rams before being given the Chargers job. His reputation as being a brilliant mind seems to be cemented by his reliance on The Analytics to justify his fourth-down aggressiveness. The underlying truth that is presumed whenever The Analytics are invoked to absolve coaches like Staley from showing their work as to why going for it on fourth down at your own 25-yard line actually improves win probabilities — just trust the good people at NextGen and ESPN who do not have any ulterior motives to sell snake oil. But after overseeing his team blow a 27-point lead to Jacksonville in the playoffs, we should wonder if some of these analytics companies promoting the “revolution” are not the only con artists in this story. Staley cannot get his side of the ball right — and he compounds that problem by consistently getting outmaneuvered in the game management department. Justin Herbert tends to bail him out — but we are left to wonder how much Staley is holding back the immense talent that his quarterback possesses. The Chargers rank 28th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN).

FINAL TAKE: On the road, Los Angeles is getting outscored by -4.3 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -41.3 net Yards-Per-Game due to their porous defense that is allowing 433.0 YPGG which is resulting in 27.3 PPG for their home hosts. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night. New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers might have played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Bears to just 295 total yards of offense. In theory, a defense that sports linebackers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack along with safety Derwin James should be pretty good. They have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. But the offense only scored 17 points in two straight games before taking advantage of the suspect Bears defense last week. This Los Angeles offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. The Chargers have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football including their last four appearances. New York has played 15 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Jets won their previous game by a 20-14 score against Philadelphia — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their push last week — and they have played 6 straight Unders after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. New York has an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. But the offense remains limited with Zach Wilson under center. They have not scored more than 20 points in five of their seven games — and they have scored 13 or fewer points thee times. They are last in the NFL with only 102 first downs on the season. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total —  and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games —  and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (473) and the Cincinnati Bengals (474). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-3) has won three games in a row after their 24-18 win against Tampa Bay as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-3) is also on a three-game winning streak after their 31-17 upset win at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills are only averaging 21.0 Points-Per-Game since Week Five — and quarterback Josh Allen is dealing with a bum shoulder going into this game. Allen did pass for 324 yards in the game — but his team has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Buffalo’s defense stepped up last week by holding the Buccaneers to just 302 total yards — and Tampa Bay only got to 18 points from a fortunate fourth down play late in that game (that ruined our Bills play against the spread). While the Buffalo defense is dealing with injuries to Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, they are still effective on that side of the field this season. They are holding their opponents to just 326.1 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 17.0 Points-Per-Game. They have held their last three opponents to 327.7 total YPG and 18.7 PPG which takes into account their defensive injuries. The Bills have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total during Weeks Five through Nine. Cincinnati certainly has their mojo back on offense after Joe Burrow was dealing with a nagging calf injury from the summer. But while the Bengals are scoring 27.3 PPG with Burrow putting up big numbers, they are only generating 331.3 total YPG during that span. It is in big games like this where the loss of running back Samaje Perine in the offseason in free agency may reveal itself. Burrow’s return to full health has helped take some pressure off the Cincinnati defense — they have held their last three opponents to 16.7 PPG. The Bengals return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45 or higher. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Toal with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the Total set in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when hosting the Bills. 20* NFL Cincinnati-Buffalo NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (473) and the Cincinnati Bengals (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be the Buffalo Bills (473) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (474).THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-3) has won three games in a row after their 24-18 win against Tampa Bay as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-3) is also on a three-game winning streak after their 31-17 upset win at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati certainly has their mojo back on offense after Joe Burrow was dealing with a nagging calf injury from the summer — and the Bengals are the popular choice tonight for the betting public and experts that consider themselves “sharps” tonight. But while the Bengals are scoring 27.3 PPG with Burrow putting up big numbers, they are only generating 331.3 total YPG during that span. It is in big games like this where the loss of running back Samaje Perine in the offseason in free agency may reveal itself. Cincinnati looks great after their upset win against the Niners last week — but two items that contextualize that upset victory. First, San Francisco was less than full strength in that game missing Trent Williams, arguably the best left tackle in the world, and wide receiver Deebo Samuel who seems to be the critical piece for quarterback Brock Purdy to succeed in the passing game. Second, the 49ers still outgained the Bengals last week by +60 net yards after piling up 460 total yards against them (even without Williams and Samuel). And while that was just the third upset victory by double-digit by Cincinnati in the last three years, they have failed to cover the point spread all 3 times in their next contest. They return home where they are favored by three points or less for just the fourth time in three seasons — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those games. I think the bettors are neglecting to appreciate just how important this game is for the Bills given the emotions around the Damar Hamlin. Admittedly, Buffalo has been inconsistent this season — but while many decry their flat performances, there are two things I find encouraging about this team when it comes to big games like this. First, they are not trying to win the Super Bowl in September. I think the team was wound up way too tightly last year as if they could quickly resolve the anguish of losing that epic playoff game to Kansas City in the final 12 seconds two years ago. That sentiment was embodied by offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey’s meltdown when the offense failed to execute on a fourth down play that cost them their game in Miami. Head coach Sean McDermott called out his team’s lack of intensity in the preseason — and they have been flat in a few games in the regular season. But after a highly emotional year, playing the long game is sensible. They will be up for this game. Second, while they were lethargic against the New York Giants for that prime-time game earlier this year, their ability to commit and then execute a four-minute and eight-minute offense by sticking with their running game is precisely the missing ingredient this team has lacked the last few seasons. Buffalo has not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight contests. Committing fewer turnovers would certainly help their cause — they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games. The Bills have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after posting a -1 or worse net turnover margin in three straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: While the Buffalo defense is dealing with injuries to Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, they are still effective on that side of the field this season. They are holding their opponents to just 326.1 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 17.0 Points-Per-Game. They have held their last three opponents to 327.7 total YPG and 18.7 PPG which takes into account their defensive injuries. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 48 of their last 77 games against teams not allowing more than 17.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 35 games against those teams in the second half of the season. We were on the Bengals that Monday night game that got canceled — I think they were on the way to winning and covering as an underdog. Now the script has flipped with Buffalo the underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Buffalo Bills (473) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 43-30 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-1) has won two games in a row with their 38-31 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas comes off perhaps their best game of the season where they gained 24 first downs and had their offense on the field for 35:28 minutes. Controlling the time of possession will be the formula for success against the Eagles to keep the Cowboys' defense fresh — this is the expressed reason why head coach Mike McCarthy parted ways with previous offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take over the play-calling himself. As it is, Dallas has played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 24 or more first downs and held on to the football for at least 34 minutes. The Cowboys have generated 6.45 Yards-Per-Play and 6.10 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more in two straight games. Dallas has scored 30 or more points in all three of their games at home — but it has been a different story on the road. They scored two non-offensive touchdowns in their opening 40-0 win in New York against the Giants — but they have only scored 56 combined points in their next three games on the road.  But this stout Cowboys defense should have something to prove after giving up 40 points in San Francisco a few weeks ago. Dallas ranks third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now residing at FTN). They have not allowed more than 92 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have then played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total on the road after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Philadelphia has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points — and they have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Eagles have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win against a division rival by seven points or less. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while the Eagles gave up 472 total yards to the Commanders last week, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (455) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (456). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 24-20 win against Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (6-2) has won three games in a row after their 31-24 victory at Arizona as a 10-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ravens handled the Cardinals despite a sluggish effort where they got outgained by -42 net yards after their offense only managed 268 total yards of offense. Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Ravens have scored 69 combined points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. Seattle has improved their defense by acquiring Leonard Williams from the New York Giants at the trade deadline. Head coach Pete Carroll also reunited with pass rusher Frank Clark who he drafted out of Michigan before he went on to win Super Bowls with Kansas City. He was an unsigned free agent this year. This Seahawks defense had already held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less. The Ravens average 143 rushing Yards-Per-Game — but Seattle has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games in the second half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points — and Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (455) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). THE SITUATION: Miami (6-2) has won three of their last four games after their 31-17 victory against New England as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (6-2) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 24-9 loss at Denver as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes was under the weather last week which goes a long way to explain why he completed only 24 of 38 passes for 241 yards and the Chiefs managed to score only nine points against the Broncos' defense that was torched by the Dolphins for 70 points. But the Kansas City offense has not been as efficient this season even before that game. Besides tight end Travis Kelce, the wide receiving corps has not been reliable since they are dropping too many passes in a trend that started in their opening game against Detroit. The Chiefs have scored 23 or fewer points in five of their eight games. Look for Kansas City to attempt to get their running game going to slow down the Miami offense and keep them off the field after failing to rush for 96 yards in four straight games. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played four of their last five games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in November. Kansas City can afford to slow this game down because they have the best defensive unit in the Patrick Mahomes era. They have not allowed more than 24 points all season — and they have held six of their eight opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now housed at FTN) rank the Chiefs' defense as the fifth best in the league. They rank second in the league by holding their opponents to just 287.8 Yards-Per-Game. They held the Broncos to just 87 passing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Kansas City also ranks second in the league in sacks — and pressure on the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa is the way to slow down the Miami offense. Tagovailoa has only won once in his seven games in the NFL when sacked four or more times. Don’t be surprised if head coach Mike McDaniel leans heavily on the running game against this Chiefs defense playing without injured linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay. The Dolphins have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They held the Patriots to just 141 passing yards last week — and they have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Miami defense will be ready for this showdown with this being the healthiest they have been on that side of the ball all season. It will be interesting to see what defensive coordinator Vic Fangio dials up — especially with a healthy cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Dolphins have held five of their eight opponents to 21 or fewer points. Miami has played  13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Frankfurt weather may not agree with those expecting a shootout in this game — the temperature is in the 50s but with winds at 16 miles per hour and a good chance of some rain (not great for the Chiefs' already slippery hands). The Dolphins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on grass. 10* NFL Miami-Kansas City Germany O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). THE SITUATION: USC (7-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 50-49 win at California as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (8-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 42-33 win at Stanford on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite the victory last week, the embattled USC defense continued to struggle against the Golden Bears. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. And while they gave up 28 points in the first half to Cal, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. The problems with the USC defense are mostly against the run — but the Huskies are not likely to commit to running the football. They only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry last week against the Cardinal on 27 carries after rushing for a mere 13 yards on 13 carries in their previous game against Arizona State. Washington is being slowed down by issues with the interior of their offensive line — and USC does rush the passer as they rank 11th in the nation in Havoc Rate. The Trojans have talent in their secondary — and that is one of the reasons why they are holding opposing quarterbacks to completing just 61.2% of their passes. USC also ranks 21st in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. Washington has been sluggish in their last two games after their triumphant win against Oregon — they only beat Arizona State by a 15-8 score before getting outgained by -39 net yards to a struggling Cardinal team. While the head coach Lincoln Riley (rightly) gets criticized for the underperforming Trojans' defense, the Huskies' defense has been just as bad after watching Stanford generate 499 yards against them. The Huskies rank 125th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 115th in Havoc Rate while ranking 118th in Pressure Rate and 131st Sack Rate — and those are frightening numbers when now facing USC’s Caleb Williams who is averaging 14.0 yards per completion. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road where they failed to cover the point spread. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 63 or higher. In a game that looks like the last quarterback to have the ball wins, look for Williams to outduel Michael Penix, Jr. — and we get the added insurance of the three points for the home dog. 25* CFB Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rice Owls (390) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). THE SITUATION: Rice (4-4) lost for the second time in their last three games with their 30-28 loss to Tulane as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. SMU (6-2) is on a four-game winning streak with their 69-10 victory against Tulsa on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Rice almost rallied to beat the Green Wave last week despite getting outgained by -186 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards. Much of that yardage disparity can be explained by Rice’s offense only being on the field for 23:55 minutes in that game. They allowed Tulane to generate 6.97 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after allowing their last opponent to average 6.25 or more YPP. My biggest question for this team in my off-season deep dive was whether it was becoming now-or-never time for head coach Mike Bloomgren to lead his team to a winning record for the first time in his six seasons with the program. He inherited a 1-11 football team — and the Owls have improved in the win department in each season (outside the 2020 COVID year when they finished 2-3 on an abbreviated schedule). The five wins they won last year were the most since 2015 — and they did play in a bowl game for the first time in eight seasons despite a 5-7 record (they lost to Southern Mississippi in the Lending Tree Bowl). The former Stanford offensive coordinator is recruiting well — and he brought in former USC, Georgia, and West Virginia five-star recruit J.T. Daniels at quarterback. Fifteen starters are back from last year including four of the top five tacklers on defense. However, the move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference presents a more difficult strength of schedule. So far so good this season with their .500 record which includes a 2-2 mark in conference play. They are outscoring their opponents by +5.5 Points-Per-Game while also outgaining their opponents in yardage. Two of their losses have been by one scoring possession. Daniels has been steady under center — he is completing 63.6% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. SMU has outscored their last two opponents by a 124 to 10 point margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points. They outgained the Golden Hurricane by +391 net yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more yards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Mustangs have been very active in the transfer portal — but my main question for this program in the offseason was whether they taking one step forward for every two steps back in the portal. Second-year head coach Rhett Lashlee brought several players on both sides of the ball from Miami (FL) where he was previously the offensive coordinator. He has also brought in some defensive players from Liberty where defensive coordinator Scott Symons previously served. But two-year starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai left the program for Wisconsin after making 24 starts in the last two seasons. This is a team that finished 7-6 in their first year under Lashlee — the worst record for this program in four seasons. While the Mustangs ranked 14th in the nation by generating 472.8 total YPG, they also ranked 111th by allowing 431.2 total YPG. Third-year sophomore Preston Stone takes over at quarterback as a former four-star recruit — but this could be a program moving in the wrong direction after Sonny Dykes left two years ago to become the head coach at TCU. Winning six of their first six games seems to be a solid endorsement of where this team is headed under Lashlee — but they are 4-0 at home but just 2-2 when playing on the road where their scoring drops by -12.0 PPG. The Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Rice has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Rice Owls (390) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (364) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (363). THE SITUATION: Utah (6-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 35-6 loss at home to Oregon as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Arizona State (2-6) ended their six-game losing streak with their 38-27 upset victory against Washington State as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: The Utes should rebound under head coach Kyle Whittingham this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 21 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Utah defense has struggled the last two weeks by giving up 35 and 32 points against the powerful Ducks and USC offenses in the last two weeks. But they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games And while Oregon averaged 6.72 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Utes have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after allowing 6.25 or more YPP. Utah is still holding their guests to only 14.8 Points-Per-Game and just 277.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home at Rice-Eccles Stadium. The Utes have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 at home when favored. Furthermore, Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 42 or lower. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset victory as a home underdog against a Pac-12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit upset victory. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home. The Sun Devils outgained the Cougars by +106 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by +125 or more yards.  

FINAL TAKE: While Utah has underachieved on offense as they deal with injuries on that side of the ball, they did score 34 points in their previous two games against California and USC before getting stymied against the Ducks. Now they face a porous Arizona State run defense that ranks 98th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 111th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November — and the Utes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Utah Utes (364) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (363). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). THE SITUATION: Clemson (4-4) has also two games in a row after their 24-17 upset loss at North Carolina State as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Notre Dame (7-2) has won three of their last four games after a 58-7 thrashing at home against Pittsburgh as a 21-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson has suffered two straight upset losses after getting upset at Miami (FL) the previous week. The Tigers did outgain the Wolfpack by +162 net yards as they held them to a mere 202 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin along with a 15-yard interception returned for a touchdown by NC State played a big role in that game. This has been the story of the Clemson season. In their four losses this season, they are outgaining their opponents by more than +300 net Yards-Per-Game but are holding themselves back with a -6 net turnover margin with ten lost fumbles in those contests. Failing to convert on five of their seven fourth-down chances in those games has not helped either. Head coach Dabo Swinney claimed earlier this week that his team would be 8-0 if not for them leading the nation in fumbles. Ranking in the bottom ten in the nation in Red Zone Scoring Percentage has not helped the cause either. But fumble luck as well as scoring in the Red Zone tends to regress over the long run. This remains a team that is outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and their +148.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark is a reliable assessment of how they should perform moving forward. Remember, this is a team that has lost twice in overtime and that only has a 1-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They outplayed and outgained Florida State by a 429 to 311 yardage margin before coaching decisions and late miscues and some Seminoles’ good fortunate combined to have the Tigers somehow give that game away in overtime. So while the critics can point to Clemson’s 7-7 record in their last 14 games, this remains a very talented group — especially on defense. The Tigers still possess an elite defense that ranks fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 4.4 Yards-Per-Play. They rank sixth in the FBS by allowing only 267.5 total YPG — and they are 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The offense has struggled in the Red Zone under quarterback Cade Klubnik — and some of the shine is off new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley who came over from TCU in the offseason. But the Tigers are still averaging 453.8 YPG at home which is generating 38.8 PPG. Running back Will Shipley is injured for this game — but that means more carries for second-year freshman Phil Mafah who is averaging 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry and +1.5 more yards after contact than Shipley. After playing their last two games on the road, Clemson returns home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 42.5-46 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Tigers have not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Notre Dame goes on the road again after beating USC and the Panthers at home by 28 and 51 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home by 14 or more points. The Fighting Irish have forced five turnovers in two straight games — they have enjoyed +5 and +3 net turnover margins in their last two contest. But the Regression Gods are fickle when it comes to turnovers as Notre Dame will remember in their upset loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over five times in their last trip on the road. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a +3 or more net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing two games in a row with a +3 or more net turnover margin. They lost their best receiver last week when their talented tight end Mitchell Evans tore his ACL. That does not help a Fighting Irish team that has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against teams not allowing more than 285 YPG.                                    

FINAL TAKE: It is not often that a Clemson team under head coach Dabo Swinney is an underdog at home in Death Valley. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 home games getting more than three points in the Swinney era — and they are covering the point spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. Swinney should have no problem getting his team up for this game since playing Notre Dame is always something special — and they will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in South Bend last season by a 35-14 score despite being a 4-point road favorite. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (309) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (310). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans will be sending out a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis tonight. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. Levis will be playing against the best defense he faced in this Steelers unit led by T.J. Watt. The Titans only manage to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset win as a home underdog. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders. The Titans have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. Schematically, the Steelers' offense is simply not difficult to defend. The Pittsburgh defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Pittsburgh stays at home where they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when the Total is listed in the 35.5-42 point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (309) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. Even if he cannot play the entire game, Mitch Trubisky is a solid backup — he completed 10 of 16 passes for 73 yards in relief last week against the Jags. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Admittedly, Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. I am not going to defend Canada — but the Steelers getting back wide receiver Dionte Johnson from injury last week really helps since it gives them a second viable target alongside George Pickens. Johnson was targeted 14 times last week — he had eight catches for 85 receiving yards. Pittsburgh has the opportunity to find success in their ground game against this Titans defense that has allowed at least 139 rushing yards in three straight games. Tennessee is allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. On a short week, the Steelers should play well tonight when considering they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 home games after a loss by ten or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. The Steelers' defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. With a healthy T.J. Watt on the field, the Steelers have a 12-5 straight-up record in those last 17 games. Now Watt and company face a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Titans go back on the road where they are winless in their four games this season while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG and getting outgained by -130.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee only manages to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have failed to cover the point spread in all three of the games on the road in head coach Mike Vrabel’s tenure when the Total was set in the 35.5-38 point range. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams from the AFC North. And while the Steelers are only averaging 271.7 total YPG this season, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not averaging more than 285 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams — and I can certainly envision that the Lions come out tonight and blow the doors off a bad Las Vegas team as they take out their frustrations from getting embarrassed last week against Baltimore. But this Raiders team is feisty when Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy and under center. Like Jared Goff, he is a veteran who has played in the Super Bowl. He has one of the best wide receivers in the game to throw to in Davante Adams. Las Vegas has one of the best pass rushers in the game in Maxx Crosby. The Raiders' defense has been playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 20.0 Points-Per-Game allowed. They held the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Chicago only passed for 150 yards in that game — and Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 150 yards in their last game. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. The Raiders have not rushed for at least 100 yards all season — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after not rushing for 100 or more yards in four or more games in a row. Detroit dug themselves a big hole last week which required Goff to throw 53 passes last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after a game where they had 50 or more pass attempts. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. The defense has lost cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson along with pass rusher James Houston — and they still have a long injury list that challenges their depth.

FINAL TAKE: Back to numbers, this remains a Detroit team that has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Head coach Dan Campbell and company would be very happy with a win by a touchdown or less. Expect a closer-than-expected game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have not scored more than 21 points all season — and they have failed to score more than 17 points in all but two of their games. One of the things I realized in my epic fail in taking the Las Vegas-Green Bay Over three weeks ago is that head coach Josh McDaniels does not have much confidence in his offense. Even in the first half, McDaniels was instructing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to burn the play clock close to zero on each play on offense. McDaniels probably does not have much faith in his defense either — so keeping that unit as fresh as possible is a priority. The Raiders' game plan will likely be to slow the game down, keep things close, and perhaps Garoppolo and Davante Adams can steal this game. Las Vegas did hold the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. They suffered a -3 net turnover margin last week — and Las Vegas has played 5 straight games Under the Total after posting a -3 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. As it is, the Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. Las Vegas ran the ball only 14 times for 39 yards against the Bears — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for 50 or more yards. And while they got outgained by 134 net rushing yards last week, they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Detroit has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They did not score in the first half against the Ravens — and they have played 6 straight Unders after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. Detroit allowed a whopping 503 yards last week with Baltimore generating 9.15 Yards-Per-Play — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 12 games against teams from the AFC, Detroit has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 45.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (278) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (277). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is a train wreck under head coach Brandon Staley who I was fully convinced was going to be let go last season so the organization could write a big check for Sean Payton to come in to steward the golden years of Justin Herbert in the league. And I will probably go on tilt sometime this evening when Staley claims “The Analytics” (always hidden from view to demonstrate what the numbers are actually saying, but never advanced without even the slightest of doubt) justify going for another 4th-and-one on the Chargers’ 20-yard line. But this play is in large part fading a rookie quarterback playing in his road game after never playing Division I college football. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after failing to pass for more than 150 yards. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 48 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two games in a row. And while the Chargers have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average. Los Angeles has played three straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing two or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 home games when favored in the 7.5-10-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (278) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears only gained 323 yards against the Raiders — but they held them to just 335 yards while posting a +3 net turnover margin. Chicago has found a winning formula by running the football which is helping their keep their defense fresh. The Bears have not allowed more than 20 points in three straight games — their last three opponents are generating only 281.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. Not coincidentally, they have run the ball at least 31 times in four straight contests which is helping them burn time off the clock. In their last three games, they are averaging 33:07 minutes per game on offense after posting a 34:06 time of possession mark against the Raiders last week. This will be the strategy against the Chargers’ Justin Herbert — especially with a rookie quarterback under center playing in his first road game. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. As it is, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset victory by 14 or more points. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. After passing for 939 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his first three games this season, he has only thrown for 650 yards in his last three games with a surprisingly low 57% completion percentage with four touchdown passes but four interceptions. Los Angeles is scoring generating 311.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in only 19.3 PPG. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have only played one Under this season — but the likely limitations on Bagent will impact the game script of this contest. Los Angeles has played a decisive 61 of their last 100 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after allowing 7.67 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Chargers have played 50 of their last 77 home games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 20-10 win at home against Arizona as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (4-2) has won two games in a row with their 39-38 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Seattle defense has stepped up since the return of Jamal Adams from injury which has allowed them to play a big nickel scheme with three safeties on the field. They have only allowed 30 combined points in their last three games with their opponents averaging just 237.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 168 passing yards in their last three games — and none of their last three opponents have totaled more than the 249 yards that the Cardinals managed last week. Seattle’s run defense has vastly improved as well from last season when they allowed 150.2 rushing YPG and ranked 30th in the league. This season, they are holding their opponents to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in only 87 YPG on the ground. This is a very good sign for a Pete Carroll-coached team as the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in three straight games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in the last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Cleveland got outgained by -140 net yards last week to the Colts used a fumble recovery in the end zone to overcome that production deficit to pull out that game. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis offense exposed the Cleveland defense by generating 456 yards last week. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after giving up 450 or more yards in that contest. After an outstanding start to the season, the Cleveland defense has taken a step back as they have allowed 27.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. I do worry about Seattle quarterback Geno Smith throwing against the Browns’ man coverage — he performs better against zone schemes. That said, wider receiver Tyler Lockett is expected to play this afternoon — and there have not been many games this season where DK. Metcalf, rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Lockett have all been healthy and on the field together this season. Running back Kenneth Walker III is off the injury report as well after not practicing for most of the week — and he should have success against a faltering Browns’ run defense that has allowed their last three opponents to average 136 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC. And then there is Cleveland having to rely on P.J. Walker under center given the lingering injury issues to Deshaun Watson. Walker only completed 15 of 32 passes for 178 yards with an interception last week. He has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last four appearances going back to last season. In his two games this year, he is completing only 50% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has thrown three interceptions in 66 throws. He has a QBR of 48.2 this year. He leads a Browns team that has failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 59 road games from Week Five to Week Nine.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (257) and the Washington Commanders (258). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-1) comes off a 31-17 win against Miami as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (3-4) has lost four of their last five contests after their 14-7 upset loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders only managed to gain 273 yards against the Giants’ defense last week. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Washington went into halftime of that game without a point and trailing by 14 points — and they have then played 41 of their last 65 games Under the Total after going into halftime trailing by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Commanders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. Washington has allowed 403.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three contests. Their defense is getting to the quarterback — they have registered at least three sacks in four straight games. The Commanders return home where they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 41 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Philadelphia held the explosive Dolphins offense to just 244 total yards last week. They have not allowed more than 249 yards in three straight games — and they have then played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two or more games in a row. The Eagles have also played 8 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on October 1st with Philadelphia winning by a 34-31 score — and the Commanders have played 27 of their last 42 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (257) and the Washington Commanders (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (168) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (167). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (6-1) rebounded from their loss on the road at Wyoming with a 37-32 victory at Utah State as a 5.5-point favorite back on October 13th. UNLV (6-1) won their fifth game in a row with a 25-23 win against Colorado State as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Fresno State has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a victory against a conference rival by seven points or less including their last four games under those circumstances. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Utah State — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs return home where they are 3-0 with an average scoring margin of +21.3 net Points-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback Mikey Keene is questionable to play tonight with leg injuries — but head coach Jeff Tedford has a capable backup in junior Logan Fife who had four starts last season and also was the starter two weeks ago against the Aggies. In that game, Fife completed 22 of 39 yards for 291 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions while adding 21 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 home games under Tedford when favored by 7.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games under Tedford with the Total set in the 52.5-56 point range. UNLV has been one of the surprises of the season with their six victories in seven games — but they are only outgaining their opponents by +20.9 net YPG. They have won both their games decided by one scoring possession. Outside of playing at the Big House against Michigan, the Rebels have played a light schedule with Vanderbilt being their only other Power Five Conference opponent and they had a game with Bryant out of the FCS. Their five games against UTEP, Vanderbilt, Hawai’i, Nevada, and Colorado Stare were against opponents all with losing records — and that collective record of those five opponents is 11-28. UNLV has won the turnover battle in six straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after posting a +1 or better turnover margin. The Rebels had covered the point spread in their first six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after covering four of their last five games. First-year head coach Barry Odom deserves credit for turning this team around so quickly — but his teams going back to his time with Missouri have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Odom’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Odom’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in that 49.5-56 point range. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Fresno State Bulldogs (168) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (167). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (203) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (204). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-5) has lost five games in a row after a 32-29 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma State (5-2) has won three games in a row with their 48-34 victory at West Virginia as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati outgained the Bears last week by a 450 to 396 margin in yards but a fumble recovery returned for a 15-yard touchdown was too much for them to overcome. That game was the second time during their losing streak that an opponent’s defensive touchdown played a big role in a game decided by one-scoring possession. The Bearcats are outscoring their opponents this season despite their losing record — and they are outgaining their opponents by +98.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Besides Baylor last week, they have also outgained BYU and Miami (OH) but found a way to lose the game. Cincinnati has not covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 15 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing four or more games in a row. First-year head coach Scott Satterfield needs to turn things around — and the Bearcats should remain competitive in this one. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Oklahoma State has pulled off three straight upset victories after last week’s victory against the Mountaineers. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Oklahoma State returns home with their annual date with in-state rival Oklahoma coming up next week — so they may get caught looking ahead. They are getting outgained at home by -6.7 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have been fortunate during their three-game upset run. These three favorites have failed to convert on seven of their eighth fourth down attempts which has often then given Oklahoma State a short field. The Cowboys also enjoy a +4 net turnover margin with seven takeaways in these three upset wins including a pick-six returned for a touchdown. Good luck never lasts — and as we discovered with North Texas’ second-half rally earlier today, even bad luck runs come to an end. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bearcats (203) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (164) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (163). THE SITUATION: Boise State (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-30 upset loss at Colorado State as a 7.5-point favorite back on October 14th. Wyoming (5-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 34-27 loss at Air Force as a 13-point underdog on October 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Boise State should rebound with the benefit of their bye week to regroup and get healthy. Head coach Andy Avalos expects their two-time 1000-yard rusher to return to action for the first time since their season opener — and their offensive line will be as healthy as it has been all season. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing two of their last three games. Boise State has been snake bit this year with three of their losses determined by only six combined points. They have endured a -5 net turnover margin this season — and the Cowboys have enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin this year so the Regression Gods could take care of two birds with one stone with an appearance in this game (to mesh and mangle a pair of metaphors). Wyoming has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. They have lost both of their games on the road while getting outscored by -14.0 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -46.0 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games between Weeks Five and Nine — and Boise State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games between Weeks Five and Nine. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Boise State Broncos (164) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (163). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (186) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (185). THE SITUATION: North Texas (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-28 loss at Tulane as a 20-point underdog on Saturday. Memphis (5-2) has won two of their last three games after a 45-21 win at UAB as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas has outgained their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game this season — but three of their four losses have been decided by one scoring possession. They should be in store for another close game this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. North Texas has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Led by quarterback  Chandler Rogers, the Mean Green have an explosive offense. The junior is completing 65% of his passes and averaging 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has 14 touchdown passes to just one interception. The Mean Green sport a balanced offense that has rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their games while passing for 297 or more yards in five games. They have generated 475.3 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after averaging 475 or more YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 expected higher-scoring games where the Total is at 63 or higher. In their three games at home, they are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game. Memphis got outgained last week by -29 net yards despite beating UAB by 24 points — they benefited from a +4 net turnover margin.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (110) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 31 games at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense that struggles to run the ball should help this short week. Buffalo still ranks as the fourth-best team in the league using the advanced DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss.
The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. They have only rushed for 46 and 74 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a Thursday night. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (110) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. The Buccaneers' defense is solid — they are only allowing 17.3 PPG and they rank 12th in the league in Defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Buffalo only gained 339 total yards in their loss on the road to the Patriots last week. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been a significant drop-off as a play-caller and leader of the offense from previous OC Brian Daboll. This offense is too dependent on big plays — but the explosiveness with this offense has declined perhaps because Dorsey's reliance on 11 personnel (with three wide receivers) is too predictable. The Bills are scoring 19.7 PPG in their last three games. Don’t be surprised if Buffalo commits to running the football early in this game. I suspect this was a mandate from head coach Sean McDermott at halftime the previous week in their Sunday night game against the New York Giants when they rallied from a 6-0 halftime deficit to win the game by a 14-9 score. The ability to execute long drives was very encouraging for this team long-term — but going into half-time trailing by a 13-3 score to the Patriots last week led them to abandon their running game behind bruising running back Latavius Murray. Buffalo averages 31 rushing attempts per game at home as opposed to 23 rushes on the road — and their 138 rushing YPG at home helps them average 33:01 minutes per game on offense McDermott needs to address his side of the ball after Mac Jones passed for 272 yards with the struggling New England offense generating 364 total yards against them. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense should help this week. While the Patriots averaged 6.74 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Bills have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a favorite

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 33 of their last 54 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (111) and the Virginia Tech  Hokies (112). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (4-3) has lost three games in a row after their 41-3 loss at Florida State as a 19-point underdog on October 14th. Virginia Tech (3-4) has won two of their last three games with their 30-13 win against Wake Forest as a 1-point favorite on October 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Syracuse only managed 261 total yards in their loss to the Seminoles. They have only scored 24 combined points in their last three games. While they faced the difficult part of their schedule against Clemson, North Carolina, and then Florida State, this was an offense that ranked just 75th in the FBS by averaging 374.8 total Yards-Per-Game last season with Garrett Shrader under center. The senior completed only 9 of 21 passes for 99 yards last week. The Orange have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a loss to an ACC rival by 21 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against ACC rivals — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog. Virginia Tech held the Demon Deacons to just 262 total yards in their 17-point victory last week. After ranking 55th in the FBS last season by allowing 370.4 total YPG, they have improved on that side of the ball by holding their opponents to 341.6 total YPG. In their four games at home, they have held their four guests to only 314.3 total YPG which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. The Hokies have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total. They outgained Wake Forest by +200 net yards as well — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 net yards. Furthermore, Virginia Tech has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* CFB Syracuse-Virginia Tech ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (111) and the Virginia Tech Hokies (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (473) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-1) had their five-game winning streak snapped in their 19-17 upset loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point road favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 19-13 victory at Chicago on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Injuries played a significant role in San Francisco’s loss to the Browns last week — and rookie Jake Moody missing a game-ending field goal resulted in the defeat. The Niners will be without wide receiver Deebo Samuel tonight but the reports this afternoon indicate that Christian McCaffrey will take the field tonight. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their six games this season, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. This remains the best team in the NFL that leads the league with a +16.2 net Point Differential — and they rank number in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. On offense, they are scoring 30.7 PPG and rank second in Offensive DVOA. On defense, they are holding their opponents to 14.5 PPG and 278.0 total YPG — and they rank fourth in Defensive DVOA using the Football Outsiders metrics. They have allowed the fewest Big Plays (rushing gains of 10 or more yards and passing gains of 20 or more yards) in the league — and opposing quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of 67 against them. They have won the turnover battle in two straight contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after posting a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against NFC opponents. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a victory by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Bears last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Vikings were a prime candidate for a letdown this season after going an incredible 11-0 in one-possession games last year. The Regression Gods have made their presence felt as all six of their games have been decided by eight points or less. Their only wins are against the lowly Carolina Panthers and Chicago. They have given the ball away 13 times in their six games — and the 49ers are the wrong team to offer up extra possessions. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Fading home underdogs on Monday Night Football can be dangerous — but we are talking about Kirk Cousins who has a career 2-10 straight-up record on MNF with 11 interceptions in those contests. Cousins also has a 13-41 straight-up record when playing against playoff teams (which the Niners will most likely be). Missing the injured wide receiver Justin Jefferson leaves the Vikings without their best player — and the 49ers have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 49 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (473) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Minnesota Vikings (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-1) had their five-game winning streak snapped in their 19-17 upset loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point road favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 19-13 victory at Chicago on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Injuries and losing the time of possession battle played a significant role in the 49ers' upset loss last week with both Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey being knocked out of that game against the Browns. Samuel is out tonight — but McCaffrey is expected to play. San Francisco’s offense was only on the field for 26:57 minutes in that contest — but that unit should win the time of possession battle tonight against a Vikings team that does not run the ball. The 49ers had scored at least 30 points in five straight games before confronting the tough Cleveland defense that may be the best in the NFL. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total between Week Five through Week Nine. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Minnesota only rushed for 46 yards last week after rushing for 70 yards the previous week in their loss to Kansas City. They have not run the ball more than 24 times in any game this season — and they have rushed the ball 18 times or less in three of their games. Overall, they are averaging only 19 rushing attempts per game which is translating to their offense being on the field for only 26:14 minutes per game — and that means both teams will likely have more possessions in this game. The Vikings have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after not rushing for 100 or more yards in two straight contests. Minnesota’s offense has scored at least 17 points all their games this season — and wide receiver K.J. Osborn has played well stepping up for the injured Justin Jefferson. But the Vikings are surrendering 25.0 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 7 straight games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Minnesota Vikings (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami flexed their muscles on both sides of the ball last week as they gained 444 yards en route to their 41 points while holding the Panthers to just 296 yards of offense. The Dolphins have played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win at home by 21 or more points. Additionally, they have played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring 40 or more points. Miami has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The Dolphins won their previous game by a 31-16 score at home against the New York Giants — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by 14 or points. Turnovers have been an issue for this team as they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two or more games in a row. Philadelphia has played 28 of their last 42 home games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Eagles have only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Philly has held their last two opponents to 244 and 239 total yards — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after holding two straight opponents to no more than 250 total yards.

FINAL TAKE: The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami scored 24 and 20 points in their games at New England and Buffalo this season — with their other four games either at home or in sunny Los Angeles in early September. The Eagles will certainly get their ground game going to burn the clock and keep the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 60 home games Under the Total played in October. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday. Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia held the Jets to just 244 total yards — and they outgained them by +104 net yards. But a -4 net turnover margin did the Eagles in. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -4 or worse net turnover margin last week. Now the Eagles return home where quarterback Jalen Hurts has won 12 of his last 13 starts with 32 touchdown passes to just six interceptions — and he posted a 102.8 Passer Rating in those last 13 starts at home. Much has been said about the Philly offense being out of sync. While I do think the transition from previous offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who took the head coaching job with Indianapolis, to new OC Brian Johnson explains why they are not in full-playoff mode from last season, this offense has still been effective. The Offensive DVOA numbers by the Football Outsiders rank this unit as the seventh most efficient in the league. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their six games while putting up 34 points twice. For some context, the Eagles scored more than 24 points just three times in their first six games last season — and only one of those six games saw them score more than 29 points. The signing of veteran wide receiver Julio Jones will help since he gives Hurts a pair of reliable hands as a third wide receiver. And while right tackle Lane Johnson was on the injury report earlier in the week, he is expected to play tonight. Hurts has thrown as many interceptions already this season as he did all of last year — but playing at home should help settle him down. By the way, some of this rise in interceptions is simply from Hurts being asked to throw the ball more early on. His 213 pass attempts are 29 more than his number after six games last year — almost five more pass attempts per game. Lincoln Financial Field will be rocking tonight — Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by seven points or less. Miami comes off a cushy two-game home stand against the New York Giants and Carolina who they beat by 15 and 21 points respectively. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row at home by double-digits. And while their dynamic offense scored 31 and 42 points in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. Miami has taken full advantage of their easy early schedule — their five victories were against teams who began the day with a combined 5-24 record. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 99 Passer Rating. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Establishing a pass rush on Tua Tagovailoa to make him uncomfortable is essential — the Dolphins have a 3-6 record when he is sacked three or more times while having a 1-4 record when he is sacked at least four times. Philly ranks seventh in the NFL by averaging 3.3 sacks per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins' lone loss this season was in the northeast to begin the month where Buffalo beat them by a 48-20 score. The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in Weeks Five through Nine. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (458) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (457). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-2) has won two of their last three games with their 24-16 win against Tennessee in London as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 20-6 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore went into halftime with an 18-3 lead last week which was the third straight game where they went into halftime leading by at least a touchdown. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after leading at halftime by seven or more points in three straight games. And while they have played four straight Unders, they have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. Baltimore is fourth in the NFL by allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by +78.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Detroit stays on the road for a second straight week having covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 road games after winning two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (458) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset loss at home to Washington as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-6 loss at home to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta dominated the Commanders in terms of yardage last week — they outgained them by +209 net yards with the Falcons generating 402 yards while allowing just 193 yards. A -3 net turnover margin did them in. Atlanta has lost the turnover battle by more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse turnover margin in two straight games and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after losing the turnover in three straight games. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Quarterback Desmond Ridder has an 0-4 record in his NFL career in his four starts on the road — and he is overseeing an offense that is scoring just 10 Points-Per-Game in those contests. And yet Atlanta is a road underdog getting less than a field goal in many spots — a very fishy line given the Ridder’s road struggles. For the record, Ridder did complete 22 of 33 passes in a start on the road against Baltimore last season — so his road issues are probably being overplayed a bit. Atlanta is 7-7 ATS in their 14 road games as an underdog (not a losing trend) — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting up to three points. The Falcons are outgaining their opponents by +52.8 net Yards-Per-Game. Head coach Arthur Smith’s emphasis on running the football has helped his defense play surprisingly well. Atlanta ranks fourth in the NFL by allowing only 278.2 total YPG — and they are fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 179 Passing YPG. They hold their opponents to a 31% conversion rate on third down, ranking second in the NFL — and they rank third in pressure rate on passing down despite blitzing only 22.7% of the time which means they are getting to the quarterback without sacrificing a pass defender. Tampa Bay only gained 251 total yards in their loss to the Lions last week. Despite their winning record, they are getting outgained by -39.4 net YPG. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. The Buccaneers have played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing an Under in their last game while failing to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Unders. Tampa Bay cannot run the ball — they only generate 78.8 rushing YPG which ranks 29th in the league. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt this team — and their 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry average is tied for last in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is being asked to bail this team out with his arm on third down — and his success on the money down this season is not sustainable as his game against Detroit demonstrated. Tampa Bay gained only 46 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 50 yards. And while their run defense has been very good again under head coach Todd Bowles, opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3 of their passes against them — and they rank 26th in the league by allowing 247 passing YPG. They also rank 31st in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 49% of their third downs. The Bucs stay home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points.   

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (342) minus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (341). Florida State (6-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 41-3 win against Syracuse as a 19-point favorite last Saturday. Duke (5-1) rebounded from their touchdown loss at home to Notre Dame with a 24-3 win at home against North Carolina State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: Florida State tends to feed off their momentum in situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win against ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by double-digits against a conference opponent. They dominated the Orange by outgaining them by +274 net yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 42 of their last 66 home games after outgaining their previous opponent by +175 or more yards. The biggest question I had in my offseason deep dive with this team was whether the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell. They led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. The defense returned six of the top seven tacklers that ranked 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to 321.8 total YPG. Norvell is also hitting the transfer portal well with 11 new players coming into the program — and I like the way he is integrating these players with the foundation of his team. Norvell committed to getting younger players on the field in the first three years with the program — and those juniors and seniors now form the core of this team. Senior quarterback Jordan Travis is an intriguing NFL prospect. He was initially a run-first dual-threat option under center who has made great strides in improving his passing game. He passed for 3214 yards last year while being graded the top offensive player in the ACC by Pro Football Focus. Of particular note is his decision-making as he had only five interceptions with only 1.9% of his snaps under center resulted in a turnover-worthy play. So far this season, Travis has 1482 passing yards with 13 touchdown passes and just one interception. He is leading an offense that ranks second in the nation in Explosiveness. While I remain uncertain if this team can win a College Football Playoff game, they are definitely trending upward with 12 straight victories going back to last season. In three home games, they are generating 514.3 total YPG which is resulting in 48.7 PPG — and they are outscoring their guests by +37.7 PPG. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win against an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win by 21 or more points against an ACC foe. I am not surprised by the Blue Devils hot start to the season. In my preseason deep dive, I speculated that it might be too easy and misguided to disregard the Blue Devils simply because they thrived on a soft schedule last season. They only played four teams with a winning record — and just two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record. This contest will be their third game against a team ranked in the top 11 in the country at the time. And while their +16 net turnover margin helped them out tremendously, the Regression Gods are likely to make their presence known this year with their actual net turnover rate coming closer to their expected net turnover rate again — and they only have a +3 net turnover margin hits season. But the key to this team is junior quarterback Riley Leonard — and he remains questionable with an ankle injury. Head coach Mile Elko lists him as day-to-day. If he cannot play, freshman Henry Belin IV will get the start once again after he completed just 4 of 12 passes for 107 yards as the starter last week. It will not be pretty if Belin IV is starting in the hostile environment of Doak Campbell Stadium in a nationally televised night game — especially since he does not appear ready to move the ball with his arm. Let’s assume Leonard plays — but one of the reasons he is an NFL prospect is because of his mobility. His bum ankle will likely limit his ability to be a running threat with RPOs or elude the Florida State pass rush. He is completing only 33.3% of his passes under pressure with just a 3.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average.

FINAL TAKE: This is Duke’s just second game on the road all season after they easily beat Connecticut last month — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road. The Blue Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Duke-Florida State ABC-TV Special with the Florida State Seminoles (342) minus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (341). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (409) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (410). THE SITUATION: South Carolina (2-4) has lost two games in a row after their 41-37 upset loss to Florida as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Missouri (6-1) rebounded from their loss to LSU with a 38-21 upset win at Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina held a 37-27 midway through the fourth quarter against the Gators last week before surrendering two late touchdowns to give that game away. They should bounce back with a good effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss to an SEC rival. The Gamecocks have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. The biggest question I had for South Carolina in my preseason deep dive was whether they could continue the offensive momentum they established at the end of last season. They scored 132 combined points in their final three games which included upset wins against Tennessee and Clemson before a 45-38 loss to Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl. Head coach Shane Beamer had the offensive playbook simplified late in the season which seems to have played a role in the increase in productivity. Six starters return on that side of the ball including senior quarterback Spencer Rattler who was brilliant down the stretch. The answer so far is mixed. After generating 378.8 total YPG last season, the Gamecocks are averaging 427.0 total YPG this year — but their scoring is down -3.2 PPG to 29.0 PPG. Rattler completed 23 of 30 passes for 313 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception in the losing effort last week. It is the defense that is letting Beamer’s team down as they are allowing 442.2 total YPG — and it is that side of the ball that has played a big role in their playing three straight Overs. South Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing three straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. The Tigers have played five straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two Overs in a row and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. My main question for this team in the offseason concerned whether this team will continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers had not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. So far, the results have been overwhelmingly positive with Mizzo pulling off upsets against Kansas State and Kentucky to win six of their first seven games. But they have also been fortunate to win all three of their games decided by one scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Rattler to keep the Gamecocks close in this one — the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Missouri has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as a home favorite. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the South Carolina Gamecocks (409) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense last week against the Colts — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. The Jaguars managed only 148 net passing yards last week — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their six games this season, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell this season — they rank eighth in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones is also out for this game due to injury. New Orleans held the Texans to just 297 yards last week in their loss. After holding their final ten opponents last season to just 14.5 PPG, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. The Saints have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday. Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars got outgained by -121 net yards last week — but three interceptions by the Colts’ Gardner Minshew helped them overcome that yardage deficit with a +3 net turnover margin. Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. Despite their winning record, this team is getting outgained by -8.4 net Yards-Per-Game this season. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was if they were a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory. All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seemed as if the “plan” was to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks. Admittedly, Ridley has been great and the defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones and cornerback Tyson Campbell are also out for this game due to injury. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after being outgained by their previous opponent by -100 or more yards. And while the Jaguars have only allowed 6 and 7 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half of their last two games. New Orleans outgained the Texans by +133 net yards by somehow found a way to get upset in that game. The Saints may have a .500 record but they have outscored their opponents by +2.2 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +34.2 net YPG. New Orleans should be playing better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. My biggest question for this team in the offseason was whether general manager Mickey Loomis was simply in denial regarding the impending salary cap disaster awaiting this organization — or was he shrewdly kicking the can continually down the road? The Saints are poised to be $61.7 million in the hole versus the cap next season — and Loomis has already allocated $253 million for 2025 for what are mostly older players. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year with an average age of 27.5. But with the NFC South wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement, Loomis addressed the quarterback problem by signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal with $100 million of his $150 million contract guaranteed. With the veteran at quarterback throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas along with a defense that held their final ten opponents to 14.5 PPG, the Saints were seen as the favorites to win a division consisting of three rebuilding rivals. Over a quarter into the season, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. Carr has been pretty much the same quarterback he was for the Raiders — outstanding at times but also occasionally infuriating. He completed 32 of 50 passes for 353 yards last week while leading the New Orleans offense to 430 total yards. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. With running back Alvin Kamara back and wide receiver Michael Thomas seemingly back in form to complement Chris Olive, the New Orleans offense still has nice potential — and Carr has been known to have big games on national television.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-10 loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-2) moved to .500 this season with a 24-17 victory against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago on October 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dallas defense will have something to prove tonight after getting shredded by the 49ers who gained 421 yards against them. The Cowboys have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And while the 49ers generated 6.4 Yards-Per-Play against them, they have then played 10 straight games Under the Total on the road after allowing 6.0 or more YPP. Dallas is dealing with some injuries on defense with cornerback Trevon Diggs out the season and middle linebacker Leighton Vander Esch out tonight with a neck injury. But they still have Micah Parsons — and this unit coached by Dan Quinn ranks fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. No one has slowed down that San Francisco offense outside some bad weather and an injury to Christian McCaffrey. They go back on the road where they are only generating 292.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in just 22.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank just 20th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA. The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback Justin Herbert completed only 13 of 24 passes for just 167 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Chargers offense misses wide receiver Mike Williams who is out the season with a torn ACL. Herbert is also dealing with a fractured left finger which will require a splint which will make his ability to take snaps under center. Their offense may have to operate mostly in the shotgun which will limit their versatility in their running game. This potential liability will be something both Quinn and Parsons can exploit. Los Angeles only gained 305 total yards last week — but they held the Raiders to just 264 total yards. The Chargers have played 58 of their last 96 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while Dallas scores 26.8 PPG, Los Angeles has played 47 of their last 74 home games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Furthermore, the Chargers have played all 3 of their games on Monday Night Football Under the Total under head coach Brandon Staley.

FINAL TAKE: One of the subplots of this game will be Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy versus his former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays for Los Angeles. McCarthy took over the play-calling for Moore because he wanted more emphasis on the running game — so expect that to happen tonight since it will keep  Herbert off the field. (and maybe Moore rebels by running the ball more tonight as well with Austin Ekeler healthy again). As it is, the Cowboys have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* NFL Dallas-LA Chargers ABC-TV/ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (277) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-10 loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-2) moved to .500 this season with a 24-17 victory against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago on October 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas probably had their best week of practice this week after their humiliating 32-point loss to the 49ers. The Cowboys have rebounded to win seven straight games after a loss under head coach Mike McCarthy — and quarterback Dak Prescott has won eight of his last nine games after a loss. Prescott also has a 21-11 record in prime-time games. Dallas has been consistent with good efforts after bad games when it comes to the point spread as well. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by double-digits. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They should play better on defense tonight after giving up 421 total yards last week. Dallas is dealing with some injuries on defense with cornerback Trevon Diggs out the season and middle linebacker Leighton Vander Esch out tonight with a neck injury. But they still have Micah Parsons — and this unit coached by Dan Quinn ranks fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. No one has slowed down that San Francisco offense outside some bad weather and an injury to Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 30 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles gets Austin Ekeler back at running back tonight after outrushing the Raiders by +79 net rushing yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outrushing their last opponent by +75 or more yards. The Chargers offense misses wide receiver Mike Williams who is out the season with a torn ACL. Herbert is also dealing with a fractured left finger which will require a splint which will make his ability to take snaps under center. Their offense may have to operate mostly in the shotgun which will limit their versatility in their running game. This potential liability will be something both Quinn and Parsons can exploit. Los Angeles only gained 305 total yards last week. When handicapping the Chargers, it is hard to not factor in the coaching deficit they usually experience with Brandon Staley leading their team. He’s a lunatic with his decision-making — and his team has been fortunate to escape with the win at Minnesota two weeks ago. Staley was hired because of his work as the defensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams — but his defense with the Chargers has been underwhelming. They rank 25th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Los Angeles special teams are bad as well — they rank 30th in the NFL using the DVOA numbers which I tend to believe is a function of the head coach. Remember the blown 27-point lead against Jacksonville in the playoffs last season? Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set at 45.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers do not have much of a home-field advantage in Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium — especially with America’s Team coming to town. In expected close games, the brilliant but injured Herbert may not be able to overcome the missteps of his head coach. Don’t underestimate the motivation Dallas will have in facing their former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore (it is Moore who is responsible for their two-minute offense that led to the embarrassing attempt to spike the football that ended their playoff run two years ago against San Francisco). I find it interesting that the books have the Cowboys favored tonight. Dallas has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the  Dallas Cowboys (277) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the New York Giants (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 25-20 upset loss to Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite in their game in London. New York (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 31-16 loss at Miami as a 13-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Regulars will appreciate that I am reluctant to lay this many points in the NFL. Too many things can happen late in the game that spoil the favorite covering point spreads this high. But I do appreciate that these are basically 50-50% propositions. NFL favorites with a money-line price at -800 or higher (roughly laying 13.5 or more points) are 50-50-4 ATS since 2017. I like the Bills to lay it on early and often tonight after their disappointing effort in London last week. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. And in the last 4 occasions where they were playing at home laying more than 14 points, they covered the point spread in all 4 occasions. We have been on the wrong side of this New York team in prime-time games this season. I thought the skepticism regarding this team not being about the same as they were last season was too shortsighted. I think everyone understood that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Last year’s good fortunes did not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. But becoming a M*A*S*H unit certainly does. Even if the Giants had the potential to compete for a playoff spot again, their injury situation is making that impossible. Running back Saquon Barkley is one of their lone difference makers on offense — and he remains a game-time decision with the ankle injury that has kept him out. Daniel Jones is out leaving the quarterbacking duties to backup Tyrod Taylor. Tight end Darren Waller is questionable. The offensive line is an absolute mess with at least starters Andre Thomas and John Michael Schmitz out — and several others are banged up and listed as questionable. The defense is allowing 30.6 PPG. I just don’t see this as their turnaround game after losing their last three games by 15 or more points. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after a loss by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row by 10 or more points. They have not covered the point spread in all five of their games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have not scored more than 16 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score 17 or more points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: We bet numbers rather than teams still — and the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when a double-digit underdog including in both their games this season where they lost to San Francisco and Miami by an average of 16.5 points (and by 15 points in both games). All three of Buffalo’s victories this season have been by 18 or more points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the New York Giants (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 31-16 loss at Miami as a 13-point underdog on Sunday. Buffalo (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 25-20 upset loss to Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite in their game in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills should make a statement with their defense tonight. That got embarrassed last week in their loss to the Jaguars who gained 474 yards against them. Despite that yardage, Buffalo still ranks fifth in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and now they have           Von Miller back from injury to bolster their pass rush. The Bills have held two of their opponents to just three and ten points. They held their opponents to 17.9 Points-Per-Game last year which was the second-lowest mark in the league. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while Josh Allen led the offense to 388 total yards last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 375 or more yards in their last contest. The Bills have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total between Weeks Five through Nine — and the Giants have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Weeks Five through Nine. New York has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Giants have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. And while they have not scored more than 16 points in their last three games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Running back Saquon Barkley is one of their lone difference makers on offense — and he remains a game-time decision with the ankle injury that has kept him out. Daniel Jones is out leaving the quarterbacking duties to backup Tyrod Taylor. Tight end Darren Waller is questionable. The offensive line is an absolute mess with at least starters Andre Thomas and John Michael Schmitz out — and several others are banged up and listed as questionable. The defense is allowing 30.6 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog — and Buffalo has played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. 20* NFL NY Giants-Buffalo NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (268) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (267). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) looks to build off their 26-9 upset victory at New Orleans as a 4.5-point underdog two Sundays ago on October 1st. Detroit (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 42-24 win against Carolina as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit only outgained the Panthers by 35 net yards last week but took advantage of a +3 net turnover margin. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 road games after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 40 games on the road after winning two games in a row. Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his best at home all season including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a Quarterback Rating of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. These disparate home/road splits are continuing this season with Goff enjoying a 113.1 QBR with a 72.9% completion percentage while averaging 267.3 passing YPG with seven touchdown passes and just two interceptions in three starts at home — but in his two starts on the road, he has 90.9 QBR with a 65.1% completion percentage while averaging  231.5 passing YPG with only two touchdown passes and one interception. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games when favored by up to seven points. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win on the road. My main question for this team in the offseason regarding whether they were being too quickly dismissed by critics in their first season after Tom Brady’s retirement. The defense still has stalwarts like nose tackle Vita Vea, linebackers Devin White, Lavonte David, and Shaquille Barrett along with cornerback Carlton Davis III and safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. from their outstanding defense in their 2021 Super Bowl championship team. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the best wide receivers in the league.  The team signed the much-maligned Baker Mayfield as a free agent who has not met the expectations of being a former number-one pick in the NFL draft. But no one can question Mayfield’s toughness and he is much more popular inside the locker room than he by the media and fans. He does have a history of playing better as an underdog with a chip on his shoulder. With Brady gone and previous head coach Bruce Arians no longer making his presence felt, second-year head coach Todd Bowles has the opportunity to define this team in his image. As we turn the corner in the first corner of the season, the Buccaneers look like a pretty good football team. Their defense is holding their opponents to only 318.5 total YPG which is resulting in only 17.0 PPG. That unit ranks sixth in the league using the Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. Mayfield is completing 69.6 of his passes with seven touchdown passes and only two interceptions — and his QBR of 101.5 is the highest of his career.

FINAL TAKE: I am higher on Bowles as a head coach than many who remember his final few seasons as the head coach of the New York Jets — but he led them to a 10-6 record in his first season before the dysfunction of that organization took over. His teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (268) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (267). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 23-16 upset win against Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (3-2) has won two games in a row after completing their two-game sweep in London with a 25-20 upset win against Buffalo as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return home as conquering heroes after their upset victory against the Bills — but one of the reasons we were on Jacksonville last week was the situational edge they enjoyed with that being their second week in London while Buffalo was still dealing with potential jet lag and getting accustomed to being in England. Now this Jags team becomes the first team to play an NFL game after two straight games played across the pond. While this is unprecedented, it is interesting to note that all 11 teams that returned to the US to play in a game without a bye the first week back all found themselves trailing to tied in the fourth quarter. If even these teams experienced a travel hangover, Jacksonville is likely to come out sluggish this afternoon. They controlled that game against the Bills by generating 29 first downs with their offense on the field for 38:12 minutes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after being on offense for at least 34 minutes and gaining 24 or more first downs. They ran for 196 yards last week against Buffalo — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They only gave up seven points in the first half of both their games in London — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 home games in October. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a fellow AFC South rival. Gardner Minshew stepped up in relief for an injured Anthony Richardson to complete 11 of 14 passes for 155 yards in leading the team to victory. At this point in his career, Minshew may be the best backup in the league. He is completing 68.7% of his passes this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his 83 attempts this year. He does not lack confidence — and he has running back Jonathan Taylor in the backfield again with his contract dispute settled. Taylor will probably split time again with Zack Moss who was outstanding last week by gaining 165 yards on the ground last week with two touchdowns. The Colts averaged 7.15 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last contest. This is a solid football team under rookie head coach Shane Steichen. They rank 13th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA and 16th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics from Football Outsiders — and those are surprising rankings for a team that finished 4-10-1 last year. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars are many people’s sleeper team this season — so their victory against Buffalo confirms that prior belief for these folks. But after only outgaining their opponents by +4.1 net YPG last season, they are only outgaining their opponents this year by +14.2 YPG and outscoring them by +0.6 PPG, down from their +3.2 net PPG margin last year. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when laying up to seven points. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (251) and the Tennessee Titans (252). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-10 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset loss at Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Turnovers did the Ravens in last week as they turned the ball over three times and endured a -2 net turnover margin. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Ravens have not allowed more than 93 rushing yards in their last two contests — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. This Baltimore defense has been outstanding since they acquired linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago at the trade deadline last season. They are second in the NFL this season by allowing only 15.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are also second in the league by giving up 266.4 total Yards-Per-Game and 3.9 Yards-Per-Play. They lead the NFL in passing YPG allowed — and they are fourth in the league in touchdowns allowed per Opponent Red Zone Trip. Their 18 sacks are the second most in the NFL. Using the Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders, the Ravens have the second-best defense. But they are only scoring 21.8 Points-Per-Game this season with the offensive production dropping a bit this season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — although wide receiver drops are not helping the cause. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have played three straight Unders — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. And while the Titans allowed the Colts to average 7.15 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP. Tennessee is only allowing 18.6 PPG this season — their problems are on the other side of the ball. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has only two touchdown passes this season — he is averaging a touchdown pass every 71 throws. Running back Derrick Henry has only one game where he rushed for more than 100 yards. Wide receiver Treylon Burks remains out with a knee injury. This is an offense that lacks young playmakers to complement their aging veterans. They are scoring only 17.6 PPG while averaging just 293.6 YPG. The Titans have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Baltimore has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tennessee London Calling O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (251) and the Tennessee Titans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (160) minus the point(s) versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (159). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (4-1) looks to rebound from their 28-7 upset loss to Troy as a 1-point favorite on September 30th. Marshall (4-1) also lost their first game of the season in their previous game in a 48-41 loss at North Carolina State as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia State should rebound tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 17 or more points. They had covered the point spread in their two previous games — and they have covered the point sprees in 25 of their last 34 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while their game with the Trojans finished Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. After three straight winning seasons, the Panthers dropped to 4-8 last year. My main question for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether this program was trending in the wrong direction in the seventh-year under head coach Shawn Elliott — or were they simply snake-bit by losing all five of their games decided by seven points or less by a combined 18 points. One-third of the roster was turned over either from transfers or exhausted eligibility — but senior dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger returned after rushing for 908 non-sacking rushing yards and tossing 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. With an upset win at Coastal Carolina part of their 4-1 record, it appears that Georgia State remains a perennial contender to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game while playing in a bowl game. The Panthers stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home gams when favored by three points or less. Marshall may be deflated after losing their opportunity to upset a Power Five Conference opponent. They have played three straight games decided by one possession — and they have a showdown looming with James Madison on Thursday. As it is, the Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where both teams combined for 60 or more points. Marshall’s defensive numbers are quite good in defending the pass as they rank in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed — but that may speak to the quality of their early schedule with games against Albany, East Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Old Dominion that are not known for their dynamic passing attacks. The Wolfpack passed for 265 yards against them while generating 401 total yards and those 48 points. The Thundering Herd have forced three turnovers in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after forcing two or more turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after forcing three or more turnovers in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will have revenge on their mind from a 28-23 loss at Marshall last November 26th. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 10* CFB Marshall-Georgia State ESPN2 Special with the Georgia State Panthers (160) minus the point(s) versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (159). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). THE SITUATION: Air Force (5-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 49-10 thrashing of San Diego State as a 10.5-point favorite on September 30th. Wyoming (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-19 upset victory against Fresno State as a 6-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: After upsetting the undefeated Bulldogs last week despite only outgaining them by five net yards, look for the Cowboys to experience a big letdown this week. We were on this Wyoming team last week — but they have been fortunate to beat Texas Tech and Appalachian State in wild endings despite getting outgained in yardage in both games. The Cowboys are only outscoring their opponents by +2.0 net Points-Per-Game — and they are getting outgained by -49.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games after winning three of their last four games including a failure to cover the point spread in five of those last seven circumstances. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time this season after playing five of their first six games at War Memorial in Laramie where they enjoy an altitude edge. They may be without their top running back Harrison Waylee for this contest after he left last week’s game with a lower-body injury. While the Cowboys played Texas tough in their previous road game, this is a bad matchup for them against the Air Force spread triple option. Wyoming gave up more than 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry against New Mexico and Appalachian State generated 217 rushing yards against them. They also rank 91st in the nation in Opponent Quality Drives Allowed that measures drives of at least ten plays and 50 yards that take at least three minutes off the clock. This Air Force offense is dominant — they rank second in the nation in Points-Per-Drive and they lead the nation in Finishing Drives. Their rushing attack ranks seventh in Success Rate fueled by an experienced offensive line that ranks sixth in the FBS in Line Yards. The Falcons have won 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory against a conference foe. They have rushed for at least 287 yards in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. The Air Force defense has also been outstanding as they have held their five opponents to just 12.2 PPG — and they rank sixth in the nation by allowing only 4.27 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons’ defense ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Quality Drive Allowed and 18th in Points Allowed-Per-Drive.

FINAL TAKE: Air Force will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in Laramie against Wyoming by a 17-14 score as a 16.5-point favorite on September 16th last season. Laying double-digits with a methodical service academy can be dangerous — but this Falcons team has won all five of their games by double-digits with four of those victories by 18 or more points. They have been held below 39 points only once this season while scoring 39, 45, and 49 points in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month is with the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (146) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (145). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) has lost four games in a row after their 38-21 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite back on September 30th. Louisville (1-4) remained unbeaten this season with their 33-20 upset win at home against Notre Dame as a 6-point underdog last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville comes off their emotional high-profile victory against the Fighting Irish — but I expect a letdown for them tonight. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning five or more games in a row. And while they outrushed the Irish by 141 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing their previous opponent by +125 or more Yards-Per-Game. The main question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded how close could the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense. Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He installed his version of an Air Raid attack — and he brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaces NFL players on all three levels. The Louisville faithful could not be more thrilled with the results with the perfect 6-0 start with a victory against Notre Dame — but dark clouds are looming. Plummer continues to be too loose with the football with six interceptions already. The Cardinals still enjoy a +14 net turnover margin this year — but that clip is simply unsustainable. This will be only their second true road game this season with two of their away games played on neutral fields. While they are overachieving ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+  projections by +15.1 points when playing at home this season, they are underachieving the SP+ projections by -8.0 points when they are on the road. Now here comes an angry Pittsburgh team with an extra week to rest and prepare — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset loss. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. The main offseason question I had for Pitt was whether head coach Pat Narduzzi had raised the ceiling of expectations for this program — or is this a football team that will take a step or two back this season. The Panthers have won 20 games in the last two years after following up their Kenny Pickett ACC Championship team with a 9-4 record last season. But after losing seven players on defense to the NFL, they only return 12 starters this year. The last time Pitt had won more than eight games before this current run was back in 2009 when they went 10-3. Narduzzi was aggressive in the transfer portal again after bringing in Kedon Slovis from USC last season (to up-and-down results) — senior Phil Jurkovec comes in after 24 starts at Boston College and sophomore Christian Veilleux enters the program after being a blue-chip recruit at Penn State. Unfortunately, this team has underachieved SP+ projections in each of their games this season — so Narduzzi used the bye week to make some fundamental changes. One of the tweaks we know about is that he is benching Jurkovec at quarterback and tapping Veilleux as his new starter under center. After scoring 23.4 PPG, things cannot get much worse on that side of the ball. The element of surprise should help the Panthers tonight.

FINAL TAKE: It is surprising that a Narduzzi-coached defense is not forcing more than turnovers — they have only four takeaways this season and not more than one in a game yet. Forcing turnovers was likely another area of emphasis in the last two weeks — especially with Plummer vulnerable to throwing interceptions. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 81 games after not forcing more than one turnover in two games in a row — and they covered the point spread in 23 of their last 37 games after not forcing two or more turnovers in three straight games and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not forcing two or more turnovers in four straight games. 8* CFB Louisville-Pittsburgh on The CW Special with Pittsburgh Panthers (146) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (186) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (185). THE SITUATION: Nevada (0-5) remained winless this season after their 27-9 loss at Fresno State as a 25.5-point underdog back on September 30th. UNLV (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-20 victory against Hawai’i as an 11-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Nevada has endured one of the more difficult schedules this season with games at USC, Fresno State, and a feisty Texas State team this season along with a home game against Kansas. They were underdogs of 17 or more points in all four of those contests. The main question I had for this team in my deep dive in the offseason was whether second-year head coach Ken Wilson could raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense. The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. Last year’s team continued to improve as the season moved on — and I expect the same this year. Coming off a bye week and now hosting an in-state rival, I expect a spirited effort. Nevada has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have played four straight Unders after USC put up 66 points against them in their opening game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing an Under in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. And while the Wolf Pack have allowed exactly 475.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after allowing 475 YPG in their previous three games. UNLV has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four games. The main offseason question I had for UNLV was if first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas, The Rebels have not played in a bowl game since 2013 — and they have posted a 29-74 record in the last ten seasons. Odom is a good football who had some competitive teams in his four-year run as the head coach at Missouri from 2016 to 2019 before serving as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas in the last three seasons. His vast experience in the SEC offers some much-needed gravitas to this program. So far so good for this team by overachieving expectations with a 4-1 record with their lone loss being at Michigan. But Odom has taken advantage of a light schedule that has included an FCS program (Bryant), UTEP, and an underachieving Vanderbilt team before the conference win against the Rainbow Warriors. Kudos to the Rebels for winning the turnover battle in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover battle in two straight games. And while they have held their last three opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after holding at least two straight opponents to less than 100 rushing yards.

FINAL TAKE: I like this spot for the Wolf Pack who I suspect are undervalued coming into this game — and the Rebels are probably a bit overvalued with their nice start. The preseason expectations for these teams were about the same — and UNLV is using a freshman Jayden Maiava under center which can lead to some issues when playing on the road in hostile environments. Nevada will be motivated to avenge a 27-22 loss at UNLV last November — and the Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Nevada Wolf Pack (186) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (185). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (123) and the Colorado Buffaloes (124). THE SITUATION: Stanford (1-4) has lost four games in a row after their 42-6 loss to Oregon as a 27-point underdog on September 30th. Colorado (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 27-24 win at Arizona State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by 35 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing four games in a row. Additionally, Stanford has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than nine points. The Cardinal has not scored more than 23 points during their losing streak after opponents got the game tape on first-year head coach Troy Taylor’s offense. My biggest question for this team in my offseason deep dive on them regarded the realistic expectations for Troy Taylor taking over a Cardinal program after 16 seasons where their head coach was Jim Harbaugh or David Shaw. Except for the 2020 COVID season, the team had three straight losing seasons under Shaw, which was losing steam after his dozen years as the head coach. But does Shaw and his coaching staff deserve the brunt of that blame — or is it just increasingly difficult to enjoy success at an academic powerhouse like Stanford in the ever-evolving college football landscape? Taylor is considered an offensive wizard with his stretch Air Raid schemes after previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Eastern Washington and Utah before taking the head coaching job at Sacramento State. But the Cardinal are never going to play the transfer portal heavy — and they return only six starters from last year’s group that finished 3-9. The offense has struggled after playing their best game to begin the season against the Rainbow Warriors. They are only generating 329.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last four games — and they rank 126th in Quality Drive Rate measuring drives of at least ten plays that gain at least 50 yards and burn at least three minutes off the clock. The defensive numbers look bad with Stanford giving up 34.6 PPG which ranks 123rd in the nation — but playing USC and Oregon already will lead to ugly numbers for most teams. They held Arizona and Hawai’i to less than 400 total yards. They also rank in the top 25 in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed — so they should limit the big plays from Buffaloes quarterback Shedder Sanders. Colorado has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a victory by three points or less. My main offseason question for the Buffaloes regarded whether head coach Deion Sanders' massive transfer portal reset could rebuild both lines simultaneously with all the influx of skill-position talent on both sides of the ball. Sanders brought with him several players from his Jackson State squad including his son, Sanders, at quarterback and two-way cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter who was the number one recruit in the 2021 class. With at least 33 transfer players and another 19 freshmen signings, the Buffaloes have seen an 80% turnover in the roster from a team that finished 1-11 last year. After losing 21 of 26 games, the program can only go up under Sanders’ guidance. But the grunt work is in the trenches. Their offensive line has 44 career starts and is small for a Power Five program. The defensive line is dependent on transfers with no starters back and is also on the small side. Depth is also an issue — especially on the offensive and defensive lines. They have struggled with these issues — but Stanford is not in the position to exploit it. Interestingly, the offense ranks 89th in the nation in Quality Drive Rate — and they rank 102nd in Finishing Drive Rate. Getting Hunter back in the secondary will help their pass defense which has allowed 335 and 403 passing yards in their last two games. Colorado has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 325 or more passing yards in two straight games. The Buffaloes have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored including two of their three games laying the points this season.

FINAL TAKE: Stanford has played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 8* CFB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (123) and the Colorado Buffaloes (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (111) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams —  and double-digits are simply too many points to give up on a short week to a division rival. Certainly, Payton and his coaching staff spent a significant amount of time in the offseason preparing for this game that, in theory, looked critical to their season. I think the Chiefs win comfortably — but they would be quite content with a ten-point victory. Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home during Weeks Five through Nine. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 8 games when favored by double digits, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while this team has allowed 28 or more points in four straight games, Payton’s teams going back to his time with New Orleans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and his teams have covered the point spread in 21 of their 29 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (111) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Now facing this horrendous Broncos defense that particularly struggles against the run, expect head coach Andy Reid to be quite content just running the ball — and that will burn time off the clock. Denver is allowing opposing rushers to generate 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. And while the Broncos are also giving up 263 passing Yards-Per-Game, the Chiefs have played 36 of their last 56 games Under the Total against opponents allowing 260 or more passing YPG. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Perhaps their scoring was lower in these home games because they did not need to push the pedal because of their strong play on defense. They held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. This year’s Chiefs’ defense is even better with the continued development of their second-year players. Defensive end George Karlaftis, cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and safety Bryan Cook form a great foundation on that side of the ball for years — and, of course, defensive tackle Chris Jones’ contract dispute is resolved and he is back in the mix after missing the Lions game. Kansas City is holding their opponents to 16.0 PPG and 301.4 YPG while not giving up more than 21 points all season. In their two home games, the Chiefs are allowing just 15.5 PPG and 285.5 YPG. Kansas City has played 15 of their last 24 home games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, they have played a decisive 42 of 64 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Denver only gained 308 total yards last week — but “Russell Wilson is not the problem!” Ever since the football left his hand in Super Bowl 49 and somehow ended in the arms of New England’s Malcolm Butler at the goal line to cost Seattle that championship, it’s never Wilson’s fault. “Let Russ Cook!” And when Russ was finally allowed to cook by being liberated from the conservative defensive coach Pete Carroll, the fireworks were inevitable with Wilson’s opportunity to construct an offensive scheme with the offensive coordinator that helped Aaron Rodgers win MVPs! But when personal parking spaces and offices in the building did not lead to huge numbers or wins, it was decided that it was all head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s fault. Bring in an adult like Sean Payton and everything will come together! Unironically, these folks were anxious for Payton to get Wilson back to the comfort level that he enjoyed when playing with the Seahawks — as if Payton implements the Brian Schottenheimer playbook, all will be great again (despite Schottenheimer being the arch-villain in the Let Russ Cook drama). Even now, five games into what is already a lost season, there remains a contingent who remain fully committed to the “It’s Not Russ’ Fault” narrative as they post tweets about how good his numbers are again. If the analytics folks want to privilege the empty calorie statistics from when the Broncos were trailing by 30 or so points against the Dolphins or laud Wilson’s 308 passing yards in Denver’s game against Washington where they blew a 21-3 lead (Not Russ’s Fault!) while he completed only 56.0% of his passes, well, I guess they can. Admittedly, Wilson’s interceptions are down. And he has been more mobile again (his defenders are quick to point out that he dropped weight in the offseason yet leave unanswered the mystery regarding how he gained 20 pounds last year — perhaps Wilson was force-fed Twinkies by that idiot Hackett in their 7 AM sessions last August when Russ was putting his personal stamp on the offense?). But Wilson has passed for more than 223 yards in just two of his five games — and the Broncos have not scored more than 21 points in three of their five games. Perhaps most importantly, Wilson has heroically returned to his 2021 Seattle form (when his not being allowed to cook was the crime against humanity), and he has done so against some of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas, Washington, Miami, and Chicago rank 24th, 26th, 25th, and 31st in the Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA rankings. The Jets rank 15th in Defensive DVOA (and were without cornerback D.J. Reed) — yet Wilson completed just 20 of 31 passes against them for 196 passing yards in that loss. Now Wilson faces the best defense he has faced this season according to the Defensive DVOA numbers that place the Chiefs 11th — on a short week to boot. As it is, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset double-digit loss as a home favorite. Denver has given up at least 28 points in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they allowed the Jets to rush for 234 yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos have played 11 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total from Week Five to Week Nine. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Green Bay dug themselves a big hole last week as they went into the locker room trailing by a 27-3 score. The Packers have then played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. They have also played 36 of their last 55 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 15 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 33 of their last 51 road games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Green Bay is struggling with their running game after failing to rush for more than 95 yards in a game this season. With Aaron Jones declared out for tonight’s game, the Packers will likely rely on their passing game which will lengthen the game. They have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not rushing for 100 or more yards in four straight games. Quarterback Jordan Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. Las Vegas will have Jimmy Garoppolo and Davante Adams on the field tonight with the quarterback clearing the concussion protocol and the wide receiver able to play with his shoulder issue. Garoppolo missed the game against the Chargers — and rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell demonstrated that he is not ready for NFL competition despite his nice preseason as the offense only gained 264 total yards. The Raiders have played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss by seven points or less against an AFC West rival. And while they have not scored more than seven points in the first half in two straight games, they have then played 25 of their last 36 home games Over the Total after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. And while Las Vegas has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay got embarrassed on national television — but with the extra few days to rest and prepare, expect a much better effort from them tonight. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they got outgained by -173 net yards with the Lions generating 401 yards against them, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. My main question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason dealt with the possibility that the Packers would respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. The Packers will not have running back Aaron Jones tonight as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury — but getting to play this Raiders team may be just what the doctor ordered. Las Vegas is a mess on and off the field. On the field, the Raiders rank 31st in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics deployed by Football Outsiders while ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA. Off the field, the release of linebacker Chandler Jones for his personal issues is just the latest drama impacting this team. Second-year Josh McDaniels does not appear to have complete support in the locker room with veterans like wide receiver Davante Adams expressing his displeasure with the direction of the team. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been cleared from the concussion protocol and will take the field tonight. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road to a divisional foe. The Chargers outrushed them by -79 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Running back Josh Jacobs is averaging only 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry this season after generating 4.9 YPC during his 1653 rushing yards campaign last year. His decrease in production may not be all his fault as he is rushing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Raiders have one of the worst rosters in the league after years of disastrous drafts in the Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock era. Coming from the NFL Network to be a “yes” man for Gruden, Mayock drafted as if his only scouting was watching the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time college football games on national television on Saturdays after sleeping through the early game here in Vegas. Las Vegas is starting slow which is an indication of poorly designed early play scripts on offense. After trailing 13-7 against Pittsburgh two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, they went into the locker room last week trailing the Chargers by a 24-7 score. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 games after trailing by 14 or more points at halftime of their last game including covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games under those circumstances. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Las Vegas has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 54 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in expected close games with them listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (473). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-16 win against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (3-1) rebounded from their loss to Arizona two weeks ago with a 38-3 victory at home against New England as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: While the Cowboys come off a blowout win against the Patriots (who looked terrible earlier today against New Orleans), they tend to fall flat after big wins like that. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a win at home by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a win by 28 or more points. And while their defense looked great at what is a completely inept New England offense (even under Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than nine points in their last contest. The Cowboys have veered the point spread in three of their four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games on the road after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now after playing a light schedule consisting of the New York Giants and Jets, Arizona (in their loss), and New England who now have a combined 4-14 record after the 1 PM ET window, they face a major upgrade in competition tonight. San Francisco has won 14 straight regular season games — and remember that their playoff loss last season was after injuries at quarterback left them without a person capable of executing a forward pass. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning four or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in three of their four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. San Francisco has scored exactly 30 points in all four of their games — and they have covered the points spread in 6 straight home games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. They stay at home for a third straight week where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games as a favorite. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-1) comes into this showdown off a 38-3 win against New England as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-0) maintained their unbeaten season with a 35-16 victory against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys held the Patriots to just 253 yards in their blowout victory last week. Led by Micah Parsons, Dallas may have the best defense in the league. They are holding their opponents to just 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank as the top defense in the NFL using the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. They also lead the league in third-down defense and turnover differential. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while the Cowboys have covered the point spread in three of their four games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers hold their opponents to just 4.7 YPP — and the Cowboys have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams not allowing more than 4.75 YPP. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. The 49ers’ defense is also outstanding as they hold their opponents to just 284.3 total YPG which results in their opponents scoring only 14.5 PPG. They rank seventh in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. The Niners do have an explosive offensive — but they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. They did generate 7.6 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after averaging 6.5 to more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played twice since 2022 with San Francisco following up a 23-17 win in the 2022 NFC Wildcard round of the playoffs with a 19-12 victory last year in the NFC Divisional Playoffs — and that game was after the Niners had Christian McCaffrey Brock Purdy in their starting lineup but only generated 312 total yards of offense against Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 27-3 upset victory against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 29-23 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 8 of their last ten games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. They held the Bengals to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 36 road games Under the Total when favored by three points or less. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while the Colts allowed the Rams to average 6.14 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP. They stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total listed in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8*  NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-2) was on a two-game losing streak before their 30-7 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (3-1) comes off a 28-3 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh got embarrassed last week — and they are banged up with a bunch of injuries including quarterback Kenny Pickett who is likely to play with a knee brace. This is an endorsement of the Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin who reliably has his team ready to play in situations like this. In Pittsburgh’s circles, they were anxious about getting back late from a delayed flight after their Sunday night game in Las Vegas two weeks ago — and it cost them a practice day in pads in preparation for the game against the Texans. On a two-game winning streak off a win on Sunday Night Football, that may have contributed to their soft effort against the Texans. Tomlin made it clear they were back in pads for practice this week — especially in preparation for their game with the Ravens in what is the most physical rivalry in the league. Nothing like a game with Baltimore to clarify expectations. As it is, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games at home after an upset loss by double-digits. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a loss by 14 points or more points on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by 21 or more points including covering the point spread in those last five circumstances — and they have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. Admittedly, the offense looks like a mess right now with offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense scrutiny — but the Steelers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points. And the defense has something to prove — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 or points while covering the point spread in 6 straight games at home after giving up 30 or more points. Remember that this team has a 10-4 record in their last 14 games with a healthy T.J. Watt who is locked and loaded for this game. Baltimore is just as injured as the Steelers are right now — but they are surviving their M*A*S*H unit adventures because they have enjoyed good fortune with opposing quarterbacks. After getting to play C.J. Stroud in his first professional start for Houston last month, they then got an injured Joe Burrow, backup Gardner Minshew (in a loss), and another rookie debut with the Browns having to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. The Ravens have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 12 games against not allowing more than 14 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those contests. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 34 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh plays Lamar Jackson tough — besides beating the Ravens in five of their last six games against them, they have held Jackson to just a 66 Passer Rating in his games against them. Eight of the last ten meetings between these teams have been decided by one scoring possession — and the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (452). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 23-7 victory against Atlanta in London last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 48-20 loss to Miami as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills raced out to a 31-14 lead to dominate their AFC East rivals whom they played three times last season including in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs. Don’t be surprised if this suffers an emotional letdown this week — especially with the challenges of traveling to London this week. As it is, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win at home against a divisional rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory against an AFC East opponent. After a shaky opening game in prime-time against the New York Jets where Josh Allen’s turnover issues popped up in a loss despite the early injury to Aaron Rodgers, the Bills have won and covered the point spread in three straight games. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 39 games on the road after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The defense does expect to get Von Miller back for the first time this season after his season-ending injury last year — but they will be without defensive end Gregory Rousseau who was having a breakout season rushing the passer this year. The Bills’ defense is banged up for this game with several other players listed as questionable — and they lost star cornerback Tre’Davious White last week to a season-ending Achilles injury. Jacksonville stayed in London all week after beating the Falcons at Wembley Stadium last week. Staying across the pond for the additional time should give them a significant situational edge against the Bills still getting accustomed to the time change — and I tend to like teams that stay on the road together for two weeks since it gives their mission more of a business trip vibe. This contest is a statement game for Jacksonville who want to be considered as a contender to win the AFC Championship but have underperformed so far this season. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 straight games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. They did enjoy a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin in their last game. They are fourth in the NFL with nine takeaways this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills are scoring 34.8 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +21.0 PPG — but head coach Doug Pederson’s teams going back to Philadelphia have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games against teams scoring 29.0 or more PPG and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more net PPG. 10* NFL Jacksonville-Buffalo London Calling Special with the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (382) plus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (381). THE SITUATION: California (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win at Arizona State as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon State (4-1) comes off a 21-7 win against Utah as a 4-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California survived their game with the Sun Devils despite getting outgained by -104 net yards in that game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards in their last contest. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Cal has not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after facing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The biggest question I had for this team in my deep dive in the offseason was whether head coach Justin Wilcox’s aggressiveness in the transfer portal would lead to the results on the field that would get him off the hot seat in his seventh year with the program. Bringing in transfer players at a place like Cal with its high academic standards is tough — but the Admissions Department has been more engaged in working with the Athletic Department in accommodating the admission and enrollment of potential transfers. After three straight losing seasons, Wilcox needed to change something else besides changing the offensive coordinator, although he did do that for the third straight year as well. Wilcox tapped 19 transfers overall with seven of these players being former blue-chippers like sophomore quarterback Sam Jackson V who comes over from TCU where he was a four-star recruit. With these players joining 17 starters from last year, the Golden Bears have the opportunity to turn around a program that finished 4-8 last season. The results on the field so far have been encouraging with their two losses being when they were underdogs against Auburn and then at Washington. My biggest question for Oregon State in the preseason was whether they could take the next step and challenge for a Pac-12 Championship. They won their final four games of the season including a 30-3 dominant win over Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl to complete a 10-3 campaign. But all three of their losses were in conference play where they finished a solid 6-3 — but they lost to both USC and Washington by a field goal and got thumped by Utah by a 42-16 score in Salt Lake City. Head coach Jonathan Smith has 13 starters back in his sixth year with the program  — and he may have scored an upgrade at quarterback with D.J. Uigalelei transferring in from Clemson. The former five-star recruit had a 22-9 career record as a starter for the Tigers. But despite a good opening game at San Jose State, Uigalelei has demonstrated the frustrating form that led to his being benched by Dabo Swinney in the ACC Championship Game and then the Tigers’ bowl game. He has completed only 50.6% of his passes in his last three games while throwing four interceptions. The Beavers are very tough to beat in Corvallis — but they hit the road again after getting upset by Washington State in their last game away from home three weeks ago. Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite of no more than seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has been a dangerous underdog under Wilcox. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (382) plus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (381). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). THE SITUATION:  Wyoming (4-1) has won two games in a row after their 35-26 win against New Mexico as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. Fresno State (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-9 win against Nevada as a 25.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s lone this season was at Texas where they were tied with the Longhorns in the fourth quarter before they pulled away late for a 21-point victory. Since that loss, the Cowboys returned home where they beat Appalachian State and then the Lobos last week. Wyoming has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games at home. The question I had in my preseason deep dive for this team was whether this was the year that the Cowboys took the next step to challenge for the Mountain West Conference title. Under head coach Craig Bohl, this team has finished .500 or better in six of the last seven years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. Their 5-3 record in conference play last season was their best mark against MWC foes since 2016. Bohl has 15 starters back from last year’s group including ten starters on defense along with 13 of the 16 players who played at least 250 snaps — and ten of those players were freshmen or sophomores. Five starters are back on offense including fifth-year senior quarterback Andrew Peasley. The Cowboys conclude their three-game home stand tonight at War Memorial Stadium where they are very tough to beat. Wyoming has a 41-21 straight-up record at home in the last ten seasons after their 4-0 start this year which includes that win against Appalachian State as well as an upset win against Texas Tech in overtime. They are scoring 30.8 Points-Per-Game at home while holding their opponents to just 23.8 PPG. They have a nice weapon developing at running back in junior Harrison Waylee. In his three games since taking the field this season, the Northern Illinois transfer has rushed for 457 yards with an 8.6 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Bohl’s team has also forced at least one turnover in each of their games — and they have won the turnover battle in their last two contests. Wyoming has then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in two straight games. After two straight games at home, Fresno State goes back on the road for the third time this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning their last two games at home. The Bulldogs generated 6.95 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Wolf Pack — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after averaging 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. They averaged 7.66 YPP in their previous game against Kent State as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last two games. Fresno State is considered the best Group of Five team by many observers after outgaining their last three opponents by +197 net Yards-Per-Game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after outgaining their last three opponents by +125 or more YPG. The main question I had for the Bulldogs in the offseason was how close could they come to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida via the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. So far so good. Keene has won the quarterback job and ranks 11th in the nation with 1474 passing yards. The Bulldogs have victories against two Power Five conference programs in Purdue and Arizona State — but both of those teams are rebuilding under first-year head coaches. This game is just the third time this season that Fresno State is not favored by 25 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown has definitely been on the mind of Bohl after his team has been shut out in two straight years against Fresno State. The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 282.0 total YPG this year — but the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against opponents not allowing more than 280 YPG. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (380) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (379). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-1) was on a three-game winning streak to begin the season before a 14-7 loss at Utah as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago on September 23rd. Washington State (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 38-35 upset win against Oregon State as a 3-point underdog on September 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: UCLA outgained the Utes in that loss by a 243-219 yardage margin — but they could not overcome a 21-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Freshman Dante Moore played his worst game in his young career by completing only 15 of 38 passes for 234 yards with that pick-six. Expect the former five-star recruit to play better this week with an extra week off to digest his experience against the stout Utah defense. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to a Pac-12 rival under head coach Chip Kelly. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game in the Kelly era. It appears that Kelly may have finally found his man to run the defense with first-year defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn after years of difficulties with Jerry Azzinaro and then Bill McGovern last year as the DC. Lynn was the Baltimore Ravens safeties coach last season — and his defense this season leads the nation by allowing only 3.75 Yards-Per-Play while ranking second in the nation in Points Allowed Per Drive. They have held their last three opponents to 236.7 Yards-Per-Game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 YPG in their last three contests. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games in October. Washington State is riding high after their upset win against the Beavers with quarterback Cameron Ward being in the Heisman Trophy discussion. The Cougars offense has been clicking by generating at least 8.1 YPP in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging 7.25 or more YPP in two straight games. They have also raced out to at least two touchdown leads at halftime in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after holding a double-digit lead in three straight games. This team may suffer an emotional letdown now — especially with the extra week off. Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their games with an extra week off under head coach Jake Dickert.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars score 45.8 PPG this season — but Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games in his career against teams who average 37 or more PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the  UCLA Bruins (380) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (357) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (358). THE SITUATION: LSU (3-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 55-49 upset loss at Mississippi as a 2.5-point road favorite last Saturday. Missouri (5-0) remained unbeaten with their 38-21 win at Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE LSU MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a disappointing season for the LSU Tigers who began the year with National Championship aspirations. But expect them to take out their frustrations on Missouri. LSU has covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games on the road after a straight-up loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. LSU has been a sieve on defense after allowing 31 or more points in each of their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing 42 or more points in their last contest. They are getting great play from quarterback Jayden Daniels who ranks ninth in the nation in Total QBR — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. Missouri dominated the Commodores last week by outgaining them by +232 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by +225 or more YPG. Mizzou has played three straight Overs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. This team has been one of the surprises of the season with sophomore wide receiver Luther Burden III as their breakout star. But this is just the second time they have been an underdog this season — and while they upset Kansas State at home earlier this year, that Wildcats team was woeful last night in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. LSU will be the best team they have played this season — by far.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when getting 3.5 to 7 points — and LSU has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 10* CFB LSU-Missouri ESPN Special with the LSU Tigers (357) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (315) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (316). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-1) comes off a 44-31 win against Central Florida as a 6-point favorite back on September 23rd. Oklahoma State (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-27 loss at Iowa State as a 3.5-point underdog on September 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats generated 536 total yards against the Knights two weeks ago — and they have played 4 straight Overs after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 42 or more points than their last contest. Additionally, Kansas State has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored 31 or more points. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three contests — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a bye week. The Wildcats' defense has been exposed in their last two games with Missouri scoring 30 points against them in their lone loss this season before Central Florida put up 31 points against them. Kansas State is giving up too many big plays as they rank 122nd in the nation in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed. The Wildcats go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma State gained 409 yards in their last game — but they allowed the Cyclones to generate 422 yards in that touchdown loss in Ames. The Cowboys have played 20 of their last 30 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss to a Big 12 rival. Oklahoma State has also played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Cowboys are a program that seems to have lost their way in the 19th season under head coach Mike (“I’m 40, I’m a man”) Gundy. They only averaged 125.5 rushing YPG last season, their lowest tally since 2001 — and after claims from offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn in the offseason that he wanted to get back to a physical running game, they are only averaging 123 rushing YPG while passing on 59.4% of the plays from scrimmage, the fifth-highest in the FBS. The diminished commitment to run the football along with playing up-tempo with their passing attack is weighing heavily on their defense. On the defensive side of the ball, after ranking fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to 297.4 YPG in 2021, they plummeted to 114th in the nation by giving up 435.7 YPG. The loss of long-time defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State last year was a big blow to the program. The deeper analytics are not bullish as they rank 126 in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed and 121st in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. The Cowboys are allowing 371.3 YPG — but those numbers include their 27-13 win against Central Arkansas out of the FCS and a rebuilding Arizona State team. In their last two games against South Alabama and then the Cyclones in their last game, they have allowed 33 and 34 points. Oklahoma State has played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after allowing 31 or more points in two straight contests. They return home where they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and they have played 25 of their last 39 home games as an underdog. They have also played 23 of their last 34 home games Over the Total in October. And while Kansas State is scoring 39.5 PPG, the Cowboys have played 22 of their last 31 home games Over the Total against teams who are scoring 37 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Bundy has tapped senior Alan Bowman as his full-time starting quarterback after rotation between him and two other QBs in their first three games. The former Texas Tech and Michigan transfer is a gunslinger — he attempted 48 passes in the loss to the Cyclones. The Wildcats are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.2% of their passes — and Oklahoma State has played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total against teams who allowing opposing QBs to complete 62% or more of their passes. 10* CFB Kansas State-Oklahoma State ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (315) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (306) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (305). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia on Sunday. Chicago (0-4) remains winless after their 31-28 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Al Michaels is not going to be happy calling this game between two clubs that have only two combined victories between them going into Week Five — it’s a tough life for the 78-year-old making about a million dollars per broadcast on Amazon Prime through 2024. And it may look tough to lay the six or so points with a Washington team that got crushed by 34 points against Buffalo two weeks ago (even worse: teams coming off an overtime game on Sunday now playing on a short week with a Thursday game have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of these last 24 circumstances according to my database). But Commanders’ head coach Ron Rivera usually has his team take full advantage of situations like this. In his tenure at Washington, his teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games against teams not winning more than 25% of their games. And while the Bears are getting outscored by -15.5 Points-Per-Game, the Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games under Rivera against teams getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. Rivera’s Washington teams also thrive against teams playing bad defense. Chicago is allowing 34.3 PPG and 383.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and the Commanders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams allowing 375 or more YPG and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 24 or more PPG. The biggest question I had for this team in the offseason was how good could quarterback Sam Howell be in his second season. While he was drafted only in the fifth round in the 2022 NFL draft, he was considered as potentially a first-round talent after his sophomore season at North Carolina in 2020. He regressed in his third season with the Tar Heels — but perhaps much of that blame should go to the graduation of his top two targets in the passing game along with two running back drafted into the NFL. Howell possesses natural leadership skills — and no one will question his arm strength. If he can improve pocket presence and decision-making, he seems capable of being a productive starter in the league. While his game against the Bills was ugly, he has shown flashes of greatness. Against the stout Eagles defense last week, he completed 29 of 41 passes for 290 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread win and in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Furthermore, Rivera’s teams going back to his tenure at Carolina have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a loss on the road. Chicago is a dysfunctional mess under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears have lost 14 games in a row after ending the previous season on a ten-game losing streak. Third-year quarterback Justin Fields seems to be drowning under the pressure and scrutiny of being a former first-round pick — and the coaching staff seems to be making his job even more difficult like with decisions to go for it on fourth down rather than kick a go-ahead field goal late in their game with the Broncos last week. Defensive coordinator Alan Williams was dismissed from the team a few weeks ago after some misconduct was discovered by the organization. Eberflus is calling the plays on defense as if he did not need more things on his plate. Wide receiver Chase Claypool is not being dressed for games after he criticized the coaching staff — he is on the trade block. Injuries to cornerback Jaylon Johnson and free safety Eddie Jackson will require Eberflus to start two rookies in their defensive backfield tonight. After ranking last in the NFL with only 32 sacks last year, Chicago remains last in that category this season after registering only two sacks — and they rank second to last in quarterback hits. So while it is far from ideal for the Commanders to be playing on a short week after playing an additional eight minutes of overtime on Sunday, this Bears group is in no position to take advantage of that given all the chaos they are experiencing. The shame of it is that they played their best game of the season for almost three quarters — they took a 28-7 lead over Denver with just over four minutes left in the third quarter. I suspect that loss was deflating and resulted in a hangover that may carry over into this road game for them on a short week. As it is, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have allowed 27 or more points in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE:  The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (306) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (305) and the Washington Commanders (306). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-4) has lost their first four games this season after their 31-28 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Washington (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Washington has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. The Commanders did allow the Eagles to generate 6.48 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average 6.0 or more YPP. The offense will likely be undermanned tonight with wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson both questionable with injuries. Expect the Washington game plan to be to control the line of scrimmage with Brian Robinson running the ball and burning time on the clock. The Commanders have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. Chicago enjoyed their best offensive game of the season after putting up 471 yards up against the dreadful Broncos defense fresh off giving up 70 points to Miami the previous week. So while the Bears generated 7.14 YPP, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing four or more games in a row. The Bears defense is nothing to write home about either after giving up 401.3 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Washington head coach Ron Rivera prefers lower-scoring games where his offense can control the clock to keep his defense fresh — the Commanders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when they are favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 20* NFL Chicago-Washington Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (305) and the Washington Commanders (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (301). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (1-4) has lost two games in a row after their 31-10 loss at Western Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog last Thursday. Jacksonville State (4-1) has won two games in a row after their 35-28 upset win in overtime at Sam Houston State as a 7-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee dug themselves a hole last week by going into halftime trailing by a 23-3 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by 17 or more points at halftime of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. And while this team has not covered the point spread in three straight games while only covering once all season, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. My biggest question for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether or not the Blue Raiders would be a better team this season but fail to replicate or improve on their 8-5 record. Head coach Rick Stockstill’s squad pulled off five upsets and benefited from a +12 net turnover margin which made up for a -44 net Yards-Per-Game mark in Conference USA play. The defense has eight starters back along with 12 of the 15 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. The offense has five starters back along with sophomore Nick Vattiato who was the Conference USA Freshman of the Year in 2021 while earning MVP in the Bahamas Bowl before only playing in two games last season with senior Chase Cunningham returning from injury to reclaim the starting job. They did win five of their last six games including a 25-23 win against San Diego State in Hawai’i Bowl. Turnovers are playing a role with Middle Tennessee sporting a -3 net turnover margin — and they have committed five turnovers in their last two games. They had a -2 net turnover margin last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin including four straight point spread covers after a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Blue Raiders have also had a tough opening schedule that started with road trips to Alabama and Missouri. Jacksonville State has benefited from a soft early schedule with four Group of Five opponents and an FCS school. They trailed by a 21-7 score at Sam Houston State before forcing overtime where they pulled that game out. They were very fortunate to win that game after getting outgained by -42 net yards. They gave up 299 yards in the air to the Bearkats — so Middle Tennessee quarterback Nick Vattiato should have a good game. The sophomore completed 27 of 45 passes for 252 yards in a losing effort to the Hilltoppers last week. The biggest question I had for Jacksonville State in the offseason regarded whether this FBS debutant would find immediate success like James Madison last year. In going 9-2 last season, only one of their opponents was an FBS opponent. The defense lost three of their top six tacklers and now faces a full FBS schedule while playing in Conference USA. Their defense has put up gaudy numbers against UTEP, Eastern Michigan, and Eastern Tennessee State — but that may speak more to the quality of those opponents. Coastal Carolina and Sam Houston State generated 399 and 435 yards against them.

FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home. 8* CFB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.