At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (154) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (153). THE SITUATION: Auburn (2-0) remained undefeated so far this season after they crushed Alabama State last Saturday by a 63-9 score. LSU (2-0) is also undefeated so far this year after they shutout Southeast Louisiana last week by a 31-0 score as 41.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE AUBURN MINUS THE POINTS: Guz Malzahn’s team should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least five touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last game. Auburn has a strong defense once again this year led by an elite defensive front that has helped them only allow 25 so far this season. These Tigers have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Auburn returned thirteen starters including their starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham from last year’s group that defeated both Alabama and Georgia while outscoring all their SEC opponents by +153.8 net YPG. Auburn has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against fellow SEC foes. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games at home. LSU may be due for a letdown for this showdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. These Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. LSU enjoyed a +3 turnover in that game last week after producing a +2 net turnover margin in their first game of the season against the Miami Hurricanes and their “turnover chain.” But the Regression Gods are fickle and may likely make an appearance against this team that is +5 in the turnover margin after their first two games. Even their +10 net turnover margin from last season is ripe for a return to earth. As it is, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last two games. These Tigers return only ten starters from last year’s group that finished 9-4. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn will also have revenge on their minds from a 27-23 upset loss at LSU last year where they were 6-point favorites. Look for Auburn play with passion with this motivation for a little vengeance. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Auburn Tigers (154) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Ravens were perhaps the most impressive looking team in the opening week of the season (and we were on them) — but they look likely to suffer a bit of a letdown now. Baltimore is 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Ravens held the Bills to just 153 yards of offense which allowed them to outgain them by +116 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Baltimore is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to allow more than 14 points in their last contest. Now the Ravens travel to Cincinnati on a short week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on field turf. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Cincy defense did allow 380 yards in that contest, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals under head coach Marvin Lewis typically overachieve relative to point spread expectations as they are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games in the month of September. And in Cincinnati’s last 5 games against AFC North foes, the Bengals have covered the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore will certainly be feisty in this game after seeing their playoff aspirations destroyed last year with their 31-27 upset loss at home to the Bengals in the final week of the regular season. But Lewis can call on his team being shutout at home by a 20-0 score to these Ravens in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 10th. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 trips to Cincinnati. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens flexed their muscles on defense in that game as they held the Bills to just 153 yards of offense. This is an outstanding Ravens’ defense that was 6th in the NFL last year by limiting their opponents to just 18.9 PPG along with three shutouts they also almost added to in that game. Baltimore limited the Bills to just 2.78 Yards-Per-Play in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to less than 3.0 YPP. The Ravens controlled the time of possession in that game while looking to win the battle at the line of scrimmage as they held the ball for 35:14 minutes of that game. Baltimore only managed 369 yards of offense for all that possession time — including 252 yards in the air. The Under is then 34-15-2 in the Ravens’ last 51 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Bengals have also seen the Under go 34-16-2 in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points. The defense did give up 380 yards to the Colts in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Most of those yards were from QB Andrew Luck who returned to NFL action by 305 yards. But the Bengals allowed only 75 rushing yards — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 4 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Bengals have played all 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: It might be tempting to take the Over in this game with both offenses scoring a combined 81 points last week. These two teams also last played in Week 17 which was a scoring fest that the Bengals won by a 31-27 score. But that was the first Over between these two teams in their last five encounters. Look for both coaches to try to out-physical the other by controlling clock and win the battle at the line of scrimmage. 25* NFL AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles averaged 33 PPG when playing on the road last year — and their offense added a big weapon in Brandin Cooks in the offseason. The Rams have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. Los Angeles has also played 4 straight games Over the Total in the month of September — and they have played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Over the Total. Additionally, the Over is 7-3-1 in Los Angeles’ last 11 games on Monday Night Football. Oakland should improve on offense after scoring just 18.8 PPG. While that scoring mark ranked 23rd in the league, the Raiders were a bit better in total yardage by tying for 17th by averaging 324.1 total YPG. That disparity speaks to Red Zone problems where I place much of the blame on former offensive coordinator Todd Downing. Derek Carr led an offense that scoring 26.0 PPG while averaging 373.3 total YPG in 2016 which ranked 7th and 6th in the NFL respectively and I expect the team to approach those numbers once again this season under Gruden’s offensive mind. This Oakland team is going to have to outscore their opponents given their mediocre defense that let Khalil Mack go. Even with Mack, the Raiders ranked 20th in the NFL by allowing 23.3 PPG while also ranking 23rd in the league by giving up 350.1 total YPG. Oakland has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the month of September. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 15 games at home — and Gruden’s teams have played 13 of their last 18 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in Oakland’s last 7 games played on Monday Night Football, the Raiders have played 5 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between these two teams with the Raiders already acknowledging that they will have to win a shootout to pull the upset in this game. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) is one of the top favorites to reach the Super Bowl this season after their 11-5 campaign last year. Oakland (0-0) looks to recapture past glory by bringing back head coach Jon Gruden after their disappointing 6-10 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: I will admit that I am skeptical of some of the moves that Gruden has made since returning to Oakland. Letting Khalil Mack go is not one of them. While the linebacker is one of the best defensive players in the league, the Raiders simply cannot afford him. It is just that simple. Perhaps Oakland can entertain the debate once they move to Las Vegas the wisdom of spending 40% of their salary cap on just two players. The Lions tried that out with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh (OK, that is three players) — and we know how that plan worked out. In the meantime, before the Raiders move to Vegas where the purse strings will be loosened, Gruden’s plan is to lean heavily on veterans who can execute his sophisticated game plans in a new league where practice times are limited during the season. I do expect the Raiders’ offense to come out with plenty of new wrinkles that Gruden has been accumulating in the nine years since he left Tampa Bay for the Monday Night Football television booth. He does have the quarterback who can execute these schemes in Derek Carr. While Oakland was probably not as good as their 12-4 record back in 2016, they are better than what their 6-10 mark last year suggests. Frankly, just the move of removing last year’s offensive coordinator Todd Browning will represent an upgrade for this team. They should play well out of the gate for Gruden as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of September including covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season. The Raiders are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 7 point range. Los Angeles has added the aforementioned Suh along with cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib amongst a handful of splashy free agent acquisitions. I remain skeptical that the sum of these parts will be as good as advertised as this is now a roster with plenty of big personalities — and the formula of buying a Super Bowl has a bad track record in the NFL. This Rams team was exposed in the playoffs when they were upset by Atlanta by a 26-13 score despite playing that game at home. Los Angeles may start this season slow under the weight of Super Bowl expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 opening games to a new season. And while the Rams were 7-1 on the road last year, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams roster is loaded but expecting them to cover a point spread more than a field goal against a quality opponent is simply too much to ask. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders pull the upset in Gruden’s official return to Oakland — but definitely grab the valuable points in this game for some insurance. 25* NFL Bailout Game of the Year with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Darnold demonstrated that he might be the most advanced of all the incoming rookie quarterbacks in the preseason — but he has still yet to encounter sophisticated defenses with defensive coordinators sticking to vanilla schemes in exhibition games. Rookie head coach Matt Patricia will surely make sure that the Lions’ defense will employ some of the same sophisticated defensive concepts that he used as the defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots. Darnold had turnover issues in college at USC — he threw 13 interceptions in his last fourteen starts. Playing in a hostile environment will also represent a new challenge for Darnold. As it is, the Jets are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Jets were only 1-7 straight up on the road last year with four of those losses being against teams with a losing record.  New York was the fifth most penalized team in the league last year which did no favors for their defense which was 25th in the NFL by allowing 352.3 total YPG. The Jets also are likely to start this season slow considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Detroit has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The ten-year veteran thrives when playing at home at Ford Field where he has an outstanding 60:19 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 7.78 Yards-Per-Attempt with his passing game over the last two seasons as compared to his more modest 47:26 ratio along with a 6.94 YPA when playing on the road. The Lions were hit hard by injuries particularly on their offensive line as they had twelve different starting lineups on their line while trying twenty-one difference combinations last season. That group begins this season healthy while significantly upgrading their rushing attack by drafting Kerryon Johnson from Auburn while signing LeGarrette Blount from the Eagles. Patricia wants to run the ball more to keep his defense off the field. He inherits a defense that was second in the NFL by forcing turnovers in 16.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Lions have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit did not look very good in the preseason but Patricia did not reveal much of his new plans for the team. A healthy Lions team that runs the ball more should help Stafford be even more effective — and he has developed into one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league as it is. Detroit should overwhelm a Jets team that has not done much to upgrade their roster outside of placing their future in the hands of Darnold. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (477) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: It might look easy to take the Packers with Rodgers healthy again given the quarterback’s 16-4 record in his last twenty starts against Chicago. And without counting the two games that he has had to exit with his two broken collarbone injuries, Green Bay is 94-46 straight-up in Rodgers’ last one-hundred and forty starts. But winning this game at home in Lambeau Field is one thing — and defeating a highly-motivated divisional rival by at least a touchdown is another. There are signs of decline in Rodgers game as his 5.5 yards per completion rate last year was the third lowest amongst NFL starters last year. That decline continues a disturbing trend that has seen Rodgers’ Yards-Per-Attempt average drops to a 6.91 mark over his last three seasons which is not only below the higher numbers earlier in his career but it is also a bit below the 7.24 YPA NFL average. A below-average rushing attack has been one of the culprits as it has decreased the effectiveness of their play-action passing attack. Green Bay averaged just 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in Play-Action passes — and they are averaging only 6.4 YPA for these plays since 2015 which is also far below the 10.8 YPA average Rodgers enjoyed at the peak of his tenure with the Packers. Second-year running back Aaron Jones is out for this game with a two-game suspension which leaves the rushing duties primarily to former BYU tailback Jamaal Williams who averaged just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry in his rookie year. To compound matters, Rodgers’ wide receiving crew may be the weakest he has had in Green Bay yet it is the offensive line that is probably still the weak link with the unit. The Packers’ defense was last in the NFL last year by allowing 2.2 Points Per Drive which makes the 24.0 PPG (26th in the NFL) they allowed look even worse. While the Packers won only seven games last year, they also enjoyed three net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home in Lambeau Field. Chicago’s record suffered from three net losses in games decided by 8 points or less. Injuries have riddled this team over the years: they have lost 366 (adjusted) combined games to likely starters who were out because of injuries going back to 2015 which is not only the worst mark in the NFL during the span but well above the 214.4 averaged adjusted number games impacted by injury. This is a healthy Bears team tonight with none of their projected starters dealing with any issues. The Bears’ offense averaged only 16.5 PPG last year but I am expecting significant improvement from this unit this season. Nagy was brought in to play the role of Sean McVay who helped quarterback Jared Goff blossom in his second year. Mitchell Trubisky showed glimpses of his enormous potential last year but was often held back by the conservative play-calling of the offense. Trubisky also lacked weapons at wide receiver — and this was addressed in the offseason with Chicago signing Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton in the offseason. Those targets will help open things up for running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Nagy and his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich revealed very little of their plans for their new offseason with plenty of Run-Pass-Options expected — so Green Bay’s defense may be caught by a few surprises tonight. The defense was a top-ten unit last year in both points allowed (20.0 PPG) and yards allowed (319.1 YPG) — and they have added Kahlil Mack to provide the pressure from the edge this unit has lacked. Mack has only been with the team seven days but he should certainly be on the field for all the passing downs. The Packers tend to play closer than expected games against familiar foes as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC North rivals.

FIANL TAKE: Chicago lost both games to the Packers last year by 21 points at Lambeau and then by 7 points at home at Soldier Field. While expecting them to pull the upset may be too much to ask, I do expect a feisty battle from them — with a healthy roster — against a foe they are very familiar with. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (477) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers’ offense stalled without Rodgers last year as they averaged only 20.0 PPG last year while generating a mere 305.7 total YPG with those marks ranking 21st and 26th in the league. With Rodgers back under center, both of those marks should significantly amp up — especially at home. Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games at Lambeau Field with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Rodgers no longer has Jordy Nelson as a weapon but the veteran has lost a step — he was essentially replaced by a big target in tight end Jimmy Graham who caught 10 TD passes last year. It has been a number of years since Rodgers has had a prolific pass-receiving tight end in his arsenal. But perhaps the biggest upgrade this team has made on offense was the return of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. The former Miami Dolphins head coach was the offensive coordinator for the Packers from 2007-2011 when Rodgers was enjoying some of his best statistical seasons. Remember that Rodgers has enjoyed an incredible 40-to-8 touchdown to interception ratio over his last sixteen starts — and he loves facing Vic Fangio-coached defenses against which he has an 11-1 TD-to-Interception ratio in his last five games against the Bears with Fangio as their defensive coordinator. Rodgers will battle a Bears’ defense that was a Top-Ten unit last year that has just added linebacker Kahlil Mack into the mix. With Mack just joining the team, it is unclear how many snaps he will play in this game. The Chicago defense is good — but their stats were padded by an offense that was designed to burn time off the clock to keep them off the field. The Bears averaged 29.2 seconds per play which is the second longest in the league. Chicago had no Pro Bowlers on their defense last year. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total against familiar conference opponents. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this includes them playing 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Over the Total. The Bears’ offense averaged only 16.5 PPG last year but I am expecting significant improvement from this unit this season. Nagy was brought in to play the role of Sean McVay who helped quarterback Jared Goff blossom in his second year. Mitchell Trubisky showed glimpses of his enormous potential last year but was often held back by the conservative play-calling of the offense. Trubisky also lacked weapons at wide receiver — and this was addressed in the offseason with Chicago signing Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton in the offseason. Those targets will help open things up for running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Nagy and his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich revealed very little of their plans for their new offseason with plenty of Run-Pass-Options expected — so Green Bay’s defense may be caught by a few surprises tonight. Trubisky saw only 39 snaps in the preseason. And don’t be surprised if the Bears significantly amp up their pace of play on offense given Helfrich’s background as a Chip Kelly protege at Oregon.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. Expect a higher-scoring game between two teams that will be experiencing big improvements with their respective offenses. Expect this to be a sloppy game which will likely result in triggering more scoring opportunities. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (470) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (469). Kansas City (0-0) begins the Patrick Mahomes era at quarterback this afternoon after they made a change at quarterback after another early exit in the playoffs after a 10-6 regular season campaign. Los Angeles (0-0) hopes to get off to a faster start this year after they finished 9-7 last year after enduring a horrendous start to the 2017 season under new head coach Anthony Lynn.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Chargers closed out last year winning nine of their last twelve games as well as six of their last seven games so there is plenty of optimism inside this franchise. This opening game was certainly circled not only because of the imperative to get off to a better start but also because Los Angeles was swept by the Chiefs last year. The Chargers lost in Kansas City by a 24-10 score on September 24th before then losing by a 30-13 score at home on December 16th despite being a 1-point favorite. Despite that loss, Los Angeles outscored their visitors by +9.9 PPG at home (despite playing in that soccer stadium without rabid fan support). The Chargers clearly feel more comfortable playing in StubHub Stadium as they outgained by their opponents by +75.0 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games. The Chargers are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 opening games to a new season. Kansas City decided to move on from Alex Smith at quarterback after they became enthralled with the passing potential of their second-year QB Patrick Mahomes. But the most under-appreciated aspect of “check-down Charlie” was that Smith did a great job in protecting the football. Smith threw only 5 interceptions last year. Head coach Andy Reid may be humming some Cinderella “Don’t Know What You Got (Till It’s Gone)” as Mahomes’ potent arm also risks many more turnovers — especially when playing in a hostile environment. Remember that Mahomes played in only one game last year — and this will be his first professional start. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The bigger problem for this team is their defense that will have seven new starters on the field this afternoon. The team will be without their leader in safety Eric Berry who is out with a sore heel. Berry was injured for last year which contributed to the KC defense ranking 29th against the pass and 25th against the run. When the Chiefs went on the road last year, they allowed their home hosts to generate 389.9 total YPG. Mahomes will have to outduel Philip Rivers in this one — and the veteran QB was outstanding last year by passing for more than 4500 yards to rank second in the NFL while tossing 28 touchdown passes. 

FINAL TAKE: With Mahomes making his first professional start on the road and the Chargers very motivated after suffering not only two losses to the Chiefs last year but eight straight losses to their AFC West rivals with their last victory being way back on December 29th, 2013. What all those losses to Kansas City have in common was Alex Smith under center delivering the daggers to their defense. Smith is now in Washington which gives LA a clean slate to exact a small measure of revenge. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (470) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (456) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (455). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) takes the field again after they lost in Philadelphia to the Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship Game. San Francisco (0-0) has renewed optimism after winning their final five games to finish 6-10 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Vikings were very tough when playing at home in the Metrodome last year. Minnesota was 7-1 at home last season with an average winning margin of +11.4 PPG. While the offense scored a healthy 25.2 PPG, the defense was absolutely nasty when playing at home as they held their guests to just 13.8 PPG while limiting them to only 260.7 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7 points or less. The offense should be better this season. The team has upgraded at quarterback by dumping all their QBs from last year and getting out their paycheck to sign Kirk Cousins from Washington. While Case Keenum was a pleasant surprise last year, Cousins is a more dangerous passer with a host of intriguing weapons at his disposal. And don’t forget the team gets back their spark-plug in Dalvin Cook who is tearing up the league before he suffered his season-ending injury. The Vikings usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of September. San Francisco is very excited about continuing the Jimmy Garappolo era after he won all five of his starts last season. But the former Patriot is likely to see the Regression Gods make an appearance with his gaudy numbers from last year — and his subpar 7-to-5 touchdown to interception ratio from last season looms as a red flag. Garappolo still lacks a tall target from his cadre of receivers for Red Zone action — and the team received terrible news when their big offseason signing of running back Jerick McKinnon from these Vikings when he tore his ACL to end his season. The 49ers starting running back this afternoon will be journeyman Alfred Morris which is a bad sign when facing this stout Vikings defense. The San Fran defense remains a work in progress this year with pass rush being perhaps the biggest concern. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the first-half of the season. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on field turf. And in their last 9 games as an underdog in the +3.5 to +9.5 point range, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers are a trendy sleeper team to make a playoff run in the NFC — but they will likely have a rude awakening traveling east to play in Minnesota for this early game. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (456) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (460) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (459). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-0) enters this season with a sense of urgency after missing the playoffs despite a 9-7 season. Buffalo (0-0) seized the Ravens’ final slot in the AFC playoffs in the final week of the season when they ended the year with a 9-7 mark and eked them out in the tie-breaker before losing a tight game in Jacksonville the next week in the AFC Wildcard round.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore lost five games last year decided by one-possession including that last game of the regular season against the Bengals where they blew a 4th quarter lead by allowing a 44-yard touchdown pass with just 44 seconds left in that game. The Ravens returned this season with a sense of purpose led by quarterback Joe Flacco who was able to workout during the entire offseason after missing last year’s preseason after recovering from his ACL injury. Flacco seems poised to have his best season in years. The defense was outstanding last year including registering three shutouts during the season. Baltimore led the NFL with 3 takeaways including ten forced turnovers in the first two weeks of the season. The Ravens have covered the point sported in 15 of their last 20 games in the first two weeks of the season under head coach John Harbaugh — and this includes them covering the point spread in seven of their last ten opening weeks to a new season. Facing this defense should be a scary proposition for Buffalo who will be starting quarterback Nathan Peterman on the road who was an interception machine in his lone start last year by throwing five picks in the first half against the Chargers. While the Bills made the playoffs last year, this team looks likely to take a number of steps backward this season. QB Tyrod Taylor was steady under center for the team last year while perhaps doing his best work by not turning the ball over. The franchise moved on from Taylor by drafting Josh Allen in the first-round of the NFL draft but the rookie from Wyoming demonstrated he was not ready to start in the NFL in the preseason. The Bills also have significant issues on their offensive line. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on field turf — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Baltimore.

FINAL TAKE: While Buffalo stole the Ravens playoff spot last season, these teams look to be moving in the opposite direction. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Baltimore Ravens (460) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in the AFC Championship Game in which they lost in New England by a 24-20 score. New York (0-0) has undertaken a new start after crashing and burning last year with a 3-13 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return 21 of 22 starters from last year — but one of those starters remains embattled quarterback Blake Bortles. The team signed him to a two-year extension after he did not commit a turnover in the playoffs. However, Bortles threw 13 interceptions in the regular season (7th most in the NFL) while only attempting 547 passes through the playoffs which was his lowest amount since his rookie season. Significant issues remain for this quarterback for which it is rumored that head coach Doug Marrone and his coaching staff limits his practice time against the Jags’ defense so as to not impair his confidence. Short-to-medium range accuracy remains an issue for the former Central Florida quarterback while his capacity to read NFL wide receiver routes is still a question mark. And while all quarterbacks struggle under pressure, Bortles’ becomes almost completely ineffective against quality pass rushes with his Passer Rating of 96.0 dropping to 55.2 — and that 40.8 drop in Passer Rating under pressure is the biggest collapse of all NFL quarterbacks. Bortles is also without one of his key weapons with wide receiver Marquise Lee out the season with a knee injury. Of course, the strength of this Jacksonville defense is their defense that was 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yards allowed (286.1 YPG). But the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit with this team given those outstanding numbers — especially for a pass defense that was historically excellent. A favorable strength of schedule helped prop up those numbers last year. And run defense was an issue as they allowed opposing rushers to average 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry. The formula for success for this team was for the defense to ensure that they took a lead which allowed Bortles to execute most of his passes from play-action plays. But this team is not equipped to come-from-behind. The Jags only won one game last year when trailing at halftime — and they were 2-5 straight-up when their opponents scored first. That is not a good sign when playing on the road where they were just 4-4 last year with questionable losses at Arizona, San Francisco and Tennessee. Jacksonville failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Jaguars tend to start the new season slow as they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in the month of September — including failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to the season. New York should make significant improvements this season being just one year removed from their 11-5 campaign in 2016-17. The Giants suffered four net close losses decided by one possession. Furthermore, the team was ravaged by injuries particularly on offense with their wide receivers and their offensive line. QB Eli Manning will have a significant upgrade of talent in his huddle today with Odell Beckham, Jr. healthy and happy with his new contract along with rookie Saquon Barkley at running back along with a healthy line that has added left tackle Nate Solder from New England. The defense hopes to return to their outstanding 2016 form under new defensive coordinator James Bettcher after the unit was a dysfunctional mess as they rebelled against former head coach Bob McAdoo. Butcher brought in a former player with the Cardinals in defensive end Kareem Martin who will serve as a de-facto coach on the field. The Giants are not home underdogs very often in the Manning era — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as a home underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is a good opening situation to invest in with Jacksonville a bit overrated after their deep playoff run last year while New York being undervalued after they hot rock bottom last year. Grab the points and don’t be surprised if the Giants pull the upset. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). THE SITUATION: Rice (1-1) is already playing their third game of the season after they lost to Houston last week at home by a 45-27 score as a big 25.5-point underdog. Hawai’i (2-0) is also playing their third game of the year after they upset Navy at home last week by a 59-41 score as a 13.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played a decisive 45 of their last 67 games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Rice has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Struggles on the defensive side of the football were expected for this team that lost their top-five tacklers from last year’s unit that was 112th in the nation by allowing 35.8 PPG. The Owls are allowing 36.5 PPG this season along with 480.5 total YPG. But first-year head coach Mike Bloomgren may have his answer at quarterback in senior graduate transfer Shawn Stankavage from Vanderbilt who was showed promise last week by completing 20 of 31 passes for 204 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the Rice offense to 443 yards of offense which was more 110 more YPG than what they averaged last season. The Owls now go on the road where they have played 28 of their last 38 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Rice has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing on field turf — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games when facing a team outside Conference USA. Hawai’i seems right at home back orchestrating their old Run-and-Shoot offense that their head coach Nick Rolovich used to operate for then head coach (and now Hamilton Tiger-Cats head coach) June Jones. The Rainbow Warriors generated 526 yards last week against the Midshipmen defense — and it is like the old days for this team so far this season as they are scoring 51.0 PPG while generating 569.0 total YPG for their unique scheme. Hawai’i has then played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Sophomore QB Cole McDonald is loving executing this offense which gives freedom to both the quarterback and the four wide receivers to improvise their routes based off coverage. McDonald completed 30 of 41 passes last week for 428 yards while throwing six touchdown passes with zero interceptions. But the defense remains a work in progress after losing six of their top nine tacklers from a group that allowed 33.9 PPG while ranking 114th in the FBS by allowing 458.8 total YPG. In their first two games this year, Hawai’i is allowing 37.5 PPG while giving up 532.0 total YPG. Moving forward, the Rainbow Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. And in their last 11 games against non-conference opponents, Hawai’i has played 10 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: With this being the third game for both teams, the offenses should be up-to-speed regarding understanding and operating their schemes. Neither of these teams can stop anybody — so this should be a high-scoring game with Hawai’i likely leading the way. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (1-0) began the Herm Edwards coaching era in strong fashion as they crushed UTSA by a 49-7 score last Saturday as a 17-point favorite. Michigan State (1-0) looked wobbly at home last week as they outlasted Utah State by a 38-31 score despite being a 23.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Spartans are supposed to have an outstanding defensive secondary with all five of the starters from their 4-2-5 scheme returning from last year — but they surrendered 319 passing yards to the Aggies despite playing that game in East Lansing. Michigan State is just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. On paper, Sparty looks very good this year with nineteen starters returning from last year’s team that finished 10-3 with their 42-17 win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. But considering that they only outgained their Big Ten opponents by +34.6 net YPG, head coach Mark Dantonio’s team probably overachieved — and they certainly benefited from four net close wins in games decided by one scoring possession. Their offensive line was a weak link last season — and they face an intriguing Sun Devils defensive front with Renell Wren in the middle who almost single-handedly upset Washington last year with a performance that put him on the radar of NFL scouts. Michigan State has not been reliable away from home as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road while also failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Sparty has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when they are laying the points including failing to cover the point spread in four straight games on the road laying 7 or less points. Additionally, Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Pac-12 opponents. I am not a big believer in Edwards returning to the coaching sidelines after his cushy gig at ESPN but he has adopted a CEO model for his responsibilities while installing two good coordinators in Rob Likens on offense and former San Diego State defensive coordinator Danny Gonzalez on defense. So far so good with Gonzalez’s side of the formula as they limited the Roadrunners to just 221 yards of offense last week. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The offense is led by senior Manny Wilkins who is a dangerous gunslinger when healthy. The third-year starter has a dynamic group of wide receivers led by a potential All-American in N’Keal Harry. Wilkins completed 16 of 24 passes last week for 237 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. Wilkins has helped the Sun Devils cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home. Arizona State has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against Big Ten opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The trip out west can be very precarious for Big Ten teams — especially for nationally televised games at night. The forecast is for a very hot night in Tempe as well which will only make the Spartans more uncomfortable. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Michigan State-Arizona State ESPN Special with the Arizona State Sun Devils (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). THE SITUATION: USC (1-0) enters this game coming off a 43-21 win over UNLV last week as a 24.5-point favorite. Stanford (1-0) also won their opening game of the season with their 31-10 win over San Diego State as a 14-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL MINUS THE POINTS: Stanford’s defense flexed their muscles by holding the Aztecs to only 263 yards of offense. The Cardinal returns six starters from a group that gave up too much yardage but still tied for 34th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.7 PPG. Stanford was 9-5 last year but finished their season with a loss to these Trojans in the Pac-12 Championship Game by a 31-28 score before then losing to TCU in the Alamo Bowl by a 39-37 score. Four of the five losses for the Cardinal last season were by a field goal or less — so they were very close to a very nice season. They return nine starters on offense including junior quarterback K.J. Costello who completed 21 of 31 passes for 332 yards with four touchdown passes. The team is led by senior Bryce Love who is a Heisman Trophy candidate after using for 2118 yards last year despite being hobbled with a host of injuries last season. Love rushed for only 29 yards last week on 18 carries — and Stanford as a team managed only 50 rushing yards but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Cardinal host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. USC has been inconsistent under fourth-year head coach Clay Helton as they are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. Too often, this USC team plays uninspired — and that is a risk against a Cardinal team they defeated twice last year with a 42-24 win on September 9th before following that up in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Trojans finished 11-3 last year after losing to Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl by a 24-7 score. Those eleven wins included a fortunate three net close wins in games decided by one possession. Thirteen starters return but this group lost a lot of talent to the NFL including their QB Sam Darnold who will be starting on Monday for the Jets. USC is relying on a true freshman quarterback in J.T. Daniels — and this will be his first game playing in a hostile environment with it being a nationally televised night game to boot. As it is, the Trojans are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they gave failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog which includes their last three road games when getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Stanford has had this game circled all off-season given their two losses to USC last year. Both those games were away from home. Playing this game in Palo Alto with an experienced quarterback facing a true freshman should make a huge difference this team that is better-coached under David Shaw than the Trojans under Helton. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-0) began their season by pulling the upset on the road at UCLA last Saturday by a 26-17 score as a 14-point underdog. Miami (OH) (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 35-28 upset loss at home to Marshall as a 1-point favorite last week. This game will be played at the home of the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium for these neighboring Ohio rivals.

REASONS TO TAKE MIAMI (OH) PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati is likely to experience a letdown after traveling out west to shock the Bruins in the opening game of the Chip Kelly era out there. The Bearcats were actually outgained by -2 yards in that game but controlled the time of possession against the up-tempo Kelly offense by keeping the UCLA defense on the field for 34:21 minutes of that game. But Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win while also covering the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Cincinnati returned 12 starters from last year’s 4-8 squad that was outgained by -77 net YPG in American Athletic Conference play last year. The Bearcats offense was just tied for 110th in the FBS by scoring 20.9 PPG which is perhaps why second-year head coach Luke Fickell decided to tap redshirt freshman Desmond Ridder as his starting quarterback over senior QB Hayden Moore. Ridder completed 13 of 24 passes but managed only 100 passing yards. Cincy lacked game-breakers on offense last year — and generating only 304 yards last week against UCLA did little to alleviate those concerns despite sophomore running back Michael Warren II rushing for 142 yards while needing 35 carries to get there. The Bearcats allowed only 306 yards last week which might speak more to the state of the Bruins’ offense implementing Kelly’s schemes (and their senior transfer quarterback Wilton Speight left that game with an injury) than it did about the quality of their defense. Cincinnati allowed at least 31 points eight times last season while ranking 100th in the nation in 3rd Down defense by allowing opponents to generate first downs in 43.3% of those plays. Moving forward, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. I don’t love this team playing away from home for the second straight week — especially with a rookie QB. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field. Miami (OH) should come out inspired as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after suffering an upset loss at home as the favorite — and this includes them covering the point spread in three of those last four situations. This Warhawks team may be a sleeping giant with sixteen starters returning from last year’s team that finished 5-7. Fifth-year head coach Chuck Martin has to see his team through in close games as they are an awful 5-18 in one-possession games in his tenure after last week’s 7-point loss. While it would be wrong to excuse many of the mental mistakes that have cost this team in these close games, the Regression Gods do tend to make appearances for teams that suffer a disproportionate number of losses in close games. This is a better team than their record has indicated over the last few seasons — which is why they might explode with a very nice season before things are said and done. They outgained the Thundering Herd in that loss with their senior QB Gus Ragland completed 25 of 46 passes for 357 yards with three TD passes and no interceptions. The Redhawks rushed for only 87 yards last week despite their top five rushers returning from last year’s team along with Maurice Thomas who missed last year with an injury. Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. And despite their disappointing record in one-possession games, they have covered the point spread in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Redhawks have a final chip on their shoulder with them being motivated to avenge a 21-17 upset loss to the Bearcats last season as 3.5-point home favorites last September 16th. It will be very easy to Martin to motivate his team this week — and defeating this Cincinnati team will go a long way to make up for the close losses that they have suffered even to begin this season. 25* CFB Non-Conference Revenge Game of the Year Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (348) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (347). THE SITUATION: Georgia (1-0) opened their season last week with an easy 45-0 shutout win over Austin Peay. South Carolina (1-0) also impressed with a 49-15 win at home over Coastal Carolina last Saturday as a 31-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulldogs fancy themselves as a Top-Five college football program after reaching the National Championship Game last year. The Georgia football team rarely lacks for talent — but consistency and winning under pressure situations has constantly plagued this program. They lost a ton of talent to the NFL in the offseason while returning thirteen starters. While third-year head coach Kirby Smart is recruiting very well, there are some big pieces to replace from last year’s group. The offense lost an All-American left tackle in Isaiah Wynn while the defense must replace standout leaders in linebackers Roquan Smith and Lorenzo Carter along with free safety Dominic Sanders who all took their talents to the NFL. The team also has a potential quarterback controversy brewing with 5-star freshman Justin Fields challenging sophomore Jake Fromm for playing time. This is a fragile foundation for a program that tends to suffer from over-confidence. That is a dangerous combination when facing this Gamecocks team against which they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 encounters which includes going just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Columbia. South Carolina enters this game with a bunch of momentum as they generated 561 yards in their win over the Chanticleers. The Gamecocks are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points. Furthermore, South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a win by at least 20 points while also having covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after a win by at least 20 points. The Gamecocks return fourteen starters from their team that finished 9-4 after defeating Michigan in the Outback Bowl by a 26-19 score. The offense returns 98% of their rushing yards along with 80% of their receiving yards and 100% of their passing yards with junior Jake Bentley once again under center. This is the best team that head coach Will Muschamp has put together in his three years at South Carolina — and he is recruiting better than Steve Spurrier was at the end of his tenure. Injuries held this team back last year as they lost 42 games to injuries from prospective starters. They remain very tough at home where they are 50-14 straight-up over their last sixty-four games. The Gamecocks are also 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 games in SEC play.

FINAL TAKE: South Carolina lost by a 24-10 score in Athens last year as a 24-point underdog back on November 4th. This Gamecocks team looks improved while that Bulldogs team is a step to two behind last year’s team at this point of the season. With South Carolina home underdogs getting around 10 points, take the dogs while expecting a much closer game than expected for Georgia. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the South Carolina Gamecocks (348) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (347). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Falcons to just 281 yards of offense in that January victory. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz may have figured out the Atlanta offense as his group held them to just 303 yards of offense in their 24-15 win in their previous meeting back on November 13th in the 2016-17 season where the Falcons broke numerous records on offense while averaging 33.8 PPG. This Eagles team remains loaded on defense this season especially on their defensive line where Schwartz may have his dream situation in place with ten players who he can feel very comfortable rotating in-and-out in his wide-nine scheme. Schwartz banks on generating pressure on the quarterback with just his four-man front without relying on blitzes which gives him an extra player or two who can drop back into pass coverage. The Eagles may have to count on winning another low-scoring game with Carson Wentz still out with that ACL injury from last year — and Super Bowl MVP will not have the services of their top wide receiver in Alshon Jeffrey who is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 9 of their last 13 opening weeks to a new season. The Eagles have also played 12 of their last 18 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Atlanta certainly has spent all of the offseason preparing for the Eagles’ Run-Pass-Option offense that they unveiled in that playoff game with Foles under center last January. The defense steadily improved last year before flexing their muscles in the playoffs by completing the Rams offensive attack in Los Angeles in their 26-13 win in the Wild Card round before liming the Eagles to just 15 points and only 334 yards of offense the next week. The Falcons have played 7 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. The Atlanta offense also tends to slow down considerably when taking out of the pristine conditions in both the Georgia Dome and now Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have seen the Under go a decisive 33-16-2 in their last 51 games when playing on grass that slows down their speedy offensive players.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams rested their starters on offense during the preseason which will likely make both offenses ever slower to get started this season. Expect another showdown between these two teams to be dominated by the defenses with a lower scoring game being the result. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE ATLANTA PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have spent the entire offseason stewing about that loss as they had the ball inside the 10-yard line with the opportunity to win that game before failing to reach pay dirt in four plays. That final series of plays demonstrated the difficulties Atlanta had all season in the Red Zone. While the Falcons were 8th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 364.8 total YPG, they dropped to 15th in the league by scoring 22.1 PPG. Most of that blame has been placed on their first-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian — and I consider those criticisms very fair for a cronyism hire for Dan Quinn with both coaches in the Pete Carroll coaching tree. Sarkisian’s only previous NFL experience was a Quarterback’s Coach with the Raiders under Bill Musgrove in middle-aughts before serving as Carroll’s OC at USC before taking that head coaching job when Carroll dashed to Seattle before NCAA penalties were handed down on the Trojans’ program. Sarkisian was last seen serving as the OC for Alabama when they lost to Clemson in the 2017 National Championship Game when he took over for the departing Lane Kiffin. While I presume my feelings for Sark have not been hidden, I do think he will improve with his Red Zone play-calling — and the team adding wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the 1st Round of the draft gives him another weapon. The fact remains that the Falcons have lost to the Super Bowl Champions in the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. This is a good team on both sides of the football who are well-positioned t make another run. Their offense last year was destined to take a step back after a historical 2016-17 campaign where they averaged 33.8 PPG. The deeper metrics suggest that quarterback Matt Ryan may have actually had a better season last year — he was victimized by five tipped balls that resulted in interceptions which were the most any QB has endured since the 2010 season. The defense steadily improved last year before flexing their muscles in the playoffs by completing the Rams offensive attack in Los Angeles in their 26-13 win in the Wild Card round before liming the Eagles to just 15 points and only 334 yards of offense the next week. That playoff game is when Philly unveiled the Nick Foles’ offense that featured head coach Doug Pederson’s version of the Run-Pass-Option offense that Foles ran previously under Chip Kelly — and that offense would go on to destroy the Minnesota and New England defenses. Perhaps the most important thing that Quinn has done this offseason was address a subpar Special Teams unit. Quinn hired a new assistant Special Teams coach in Mayur Chaudhari while focused the third day of the draft on potential new special teamers — and the team added a Pro Bowl Special Teamer in free agent Justin Bethel from Arizona. Atlanta begins the season almost completely healthy with zero players on Injured Reserve (as opposed to teams like Indianapolis who have 20 players on IR). The Falcons usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting 7 or fewer points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 13 opportunities to play on Thursday Night Football, the Falcons have covered the point spread 11 times. I am not down on this Philadelphia team — but I do think the prospects of them suffering a letdown after their celebratory offseason is very high. The team is missing two key pieces in this game with QB Carson Wentz still out with his torn ACL and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey doubtful with a shoulder injury. The Eagles are confronting a challenging history where seven of the last seventeen Super Bowl winners failed to even make the playoffs the next season. Remember that this Philadelphia defense surrendered over 500 yards of passing yards to Tom Brady before lifting the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles defense begins this season with questions with their weak-side linebacker and their nickel cornerback.

FINAL TAKE: Ring ceremonies are tough on the home teams as it is very hard to get their minds off of celebrating last year’s accomplishments while their opponents are completely focused on the task at hand. With the Falcons filled with revenge as well, they should be very motivated to find a small measure of redemption from their disappointment from last January. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) and the Florida State Seminoles (220). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (0-0) enters this season coming off a 9-4 campaign that concluded with a 30-21 loss to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. Florida State (0-0) looks to rebound from a disappointing 7-6 season that ended on a positive note when they crushed Southern Miss by a 42-13 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hokies always have a strong defense under defensive coordinator Bud Carson who has entered his 32nd year in coaching. His defense was 4th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 14.8 PPG while also ranking 13th in the FBS by allowing only 319.3 total YPG. This unit has helped Virginia Tech see 35 of their last 52 games in conference play finish Under the Total. The offense returns seven starters from a group that ranked only 69th in the nation by scoring 28.2 PPG. Offensive line issues often held that group back — and facing the stout Seminoles defensive line will be another big challenge. The Hokies also have a big hole at running back after Travon McMillan left early for the NFL. Virginia Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games in the month of September. Furthermore, Fuente-coached teams have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total as a road underdog — and his teams have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Florida State usually plays lower-scoring games in situations like this as they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 10 points. The Seminoles were 18th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to only 331.1 total YPG — and they were tied for 29th in the FBS by allowing just 21.2 PPG. New head coach Willie Taggart has tapped sophomore Deondre Francois to be his starting quarterback after he suffered a season-ending knee injury last September. But Francois had been recruited to play in a Run-Pass Option offense out of high school and he is now being asked to operate Taggart’s up-tempo spread offense — so growing pains are likely. He inherits eight starters from an offense that ranked only 100th in the nation by averaging 351.9 total YPG. Florida State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the first-half of the season. The Under is also 20-7-1 in the Seminoles’ last 28 games in ACC play.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a lower-scoring game in this opening game between two teams that are both led by their defenses. 10* CFB Monday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) and the Florida State Seminoles (220). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (0-0) enters this season coming off a 9-4 campaign that concluded with a 30-21 loss to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. Florida State (0-0) looks to rebound from a disappointing 7-6 season that ended on a positive note when they crushed Southern Miss by a 42-13 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: I am not sure why the Seminoles are being given so much respect that they are laying a touchdown against one of high quality program like Virginia Tech. Jimbo Fisher jumped ship to Texas A&M because in large measure of the financial package the Aggies were offering him to make College Station his home. But I would think that Fisher stays at Florida State if he was encouraged about his team’s prospects moving forward. Only twelve starters return from last year’s team. The Seminoles were snakebite by injuries as they lost 39 games to projected starters being hit with the injury bug including their starting quarterback Deondre Francois. But when do the excuses end for a football program that has won only ten of their last nineteen games in ACC play? The Seminoles lost their usual handful of players from that last year’s group to the NFL. They have hired Willie Taggart to be their head coach after his success at South Florida got him the job at Oregon last year that he abandoned with the Seminoles offer. Taggart is installing new systems on both sides of the football so there will likely be growing pains. He inherits players that were used in a Run-Pass Option offense so these players may have some difficulties moving to Taggart’s up-tempo power spread attack. This is a tricky proposition for a team that is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the moths of September. The defense lost six of their top seven tacklers and return only four starters. Additionally, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and they have failed to cover their last three home games with the over/under in that range. The Seminoles are also 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in conference action. Furthermore, Taggart-coached teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 7.5 to 14 point range — and his teams have also failed to cover the point spread in 7  of their last 11 home games with the Total in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Virginia Tech returns twelve starters as well on a team that sees 3/4ths of the roster being sophomores or younger. But this young group are Justin Fuente players in his third year in Blacksburg — and teams often make a big jump in the third year of new coach’s tenure. The Hokies still have their rock on defense in defensive coordinator Bud Foster in his 32nd season as a coach. He oversaw a team that ranked 4th in the nation by holding teams to just 14.8 PPG. While it might be too much to ask of this group to replicate that feat, this should once again be an outstanding defense under Foster. The offense is led by sophomore QB Josh Jackson who made 13 starts last year. He passed for 2991 yards last year while posting a nice 20 touchdown passes to 9 interception ratio. A mediocre offensive line made things difficult for him last year — but both he and that line that returns three starters including a 6’7 beast at right tackle in Yoshua Nijman should be improved this year. This will be the first time since moving to Virginia Tech that Fuente will have his starting quarterback back under center. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech may have a ceiling regarding how good their football program can be — but they more consistently come close to hitting that ceiling year-after-year. Florida State seems to have taken a step back — particularly on their offensive line. The Hokies likely have the better defense in this game which should help them keep things very close even on the road. 25* CFB ESPN Game of the Month with the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (218). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) returns to the field after the finished last year with a 10-3 record after a 34-24 loss to Wisconsin. LSU (0-0) completed a 9-4 campaign last season with a 21-17 loss to Notre Dame. This game is played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in the home of the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Miami had National Championship aspirations in the month of November last year after winning their first ten games of the season. But we expected their bubble to burst — and they lost their last three games of the season with an upset loss at Pittsburgh before getting crushed by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and then losing to the Badgers in their bowl game. But this team was also hampered with a slew of injuries by the end of the year that exposed the lack of depth that head coach Mark Richt has yet to establish in South Beach. Two outstanding recruiting classes is getting Richt closer to where he wants to be — and his team is pretty much healthy as they begin this season. They return fourteen starters from last year’s team including their fifth year senior quarterback, Malik Rosier. This is the best team Richt has had since moving from Georgia to Miami — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games as the favorite — including covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. And in their last 6 games in the month of September, Miami  has covered the point spread 5 times. LSU is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of September which might speak to the preparation skills of their head coach Ed Orgeron. Together, these team trends produce our specific 31-13-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. The journeyman has proven capable of taking over teams in decline as he has served as the interim head coach both for the Tigers and with USC but his head coaching stint at Ole Miss was uninspiring. He could not make things work out with offensive wunderkind Matt Canada last year as he invested in too much micromanaging which led to Canada departing to Maryland (where he just coached the Terrapins to an upset win over Texas serving as their interim head coach to the suspended D.J. Durkin). I cannot argue with the conventional wisdom that this LSU program is in decline. The recruiting is down a bit with two of the key additions to this roster being graduate transfers from the football hot bed that is Texas Tech. Orgeron also suspended a handful of players for this game including a returning starter and emerging star in sophomore linebacker Tyler Taylor. This team has only four senior starters this season of the ten starters they returned from last year. As always, this team took significant hits by losing players that moved on to the NFL. They probably made a good move in grabbing a disgruntled graduated senior quarterback in Joe Burrow who transferred from Ohio State after losing the quarterback battle with Dwayne Haskins. It might speak more to the sorry state of the LSU offense that is so easy to see a fifth senior who has never started a game in college as an obvious upgrade at the position — but I remain skeptical of the team’s likely move to a more pass-happy attack under new offensive coordinator Steve Emsinger. That decision may speak more to the lack of a bell-cow running back on the roster.

FINAL TAKE: LSU lost their first four games vis-a-vis the point spread by -16.5 PPG before covering the point spread in their next seven games by +7.8 PPG. I think the former numbers speak to Orgeron’s acumen to prepare his team early while that good seven-game stretch speaking to the public overreacting to a few losing tickets with LSU’s name on it. The action on this game is almost split (Miami has a narrow edge from my latest scan). Look for a better-prepared Hurricanes team to take care of business. 10* CFB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) and the LSU Tigers (218). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) returns to the field after the finished last year with a 10-3 record after a 34-24 loss to Wisconsin. LSU (0-0) completed a 9-4 campaign last season with a 21-17 loss to Notre Dame. This game is played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in the home of the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami returns seven starters from a very good defense that was 28th in the FBS by allowing 21.0 PPG. The Hurricanes lost five key contributors on the defensive line with two of those players leaving early for the NFL — but head coach Mark Richt had nice depth at this position last year and has been recruiting very well. Depth is an issue for the defensive line this season but that that is less of a concern for this opening game. The offense returns seven starters from a group that sputtered down the stretch of the season as they scored 41 combined points in losing their last three games. Injuries certainly played a role with that collapse in production with running back Mark Walton being the biggest loss. But that is the new reality for this team with him leaving early for the NFL — so Richt is counting heavily on a five-star freshman tailback in Lorenzo Lingard. Senior quarterback Malik Rosier completed just 40 of 89 passes for an unforgiving 44.9% completion rate — and he completed just 54% of his passes in a very inconsistent season. The Hurricanes have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when favored — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Richt is likely to play this game cautiously while relying heavily on his defense. His teams have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field laying less than 7 points. His teams have also played a defensive 34 of their last 55 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this included playing three of his last four games Under the Total in that situation. LSU returns five starters and 57% of the tackles from last year’s defense that was 14th in the nation by allowing only 18.9 PPG while also ranking 12th in the FBS by limiting their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG. This should remain a stout group with defensive coordinator still in the fold after he was given a huge four-year $10 million dollar deal which makes him one of the highest paid assistant coaches in the nation. The questions for this program will remain on offense where they ranked just 76th in the nation last year by scoring 27.2 PPG. The team is excited about the prospects of their new starting quarterback in Joe Burrow who is a graduate transfer from Ohio State. The 6’3 senior narrowly lost the Buckeyes’ QB job in the spring before deciding to transfer where he supposedly narrowly beat out sophomore Myles Brennan for this starting job. While Burrow was a highly touted coming out of college, he never got a whiff of possibly starting in Columbus until this spring — and he joined the Tigers with just the August practices to learn the offense. LSU lost Derrius Guice who moved on to the NFL which leaves the biggest hole at this position in my recent memory (going back ten years in my notes). Their leading returning rusher is Nick Brossette who ran the ball 19 times for 96 yards last year. Oy. The idea seems to be for this team that they will become more of a pass-first offense under new offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger. Oy — and Miami returns three starters from one of the best secondaries in the nation last year. The Tigers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in September. LSU has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games outside SEC play. Lastly, Ed Orgeron-coached teams have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a lowing scoring game in this high profile showdown between to two programs with high aspirations who have more questions on the offensive side of the football than their typically strong defenses. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) and the LSU Tigers (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

No play -- I mistakenly loaded another game into this Middle Tennessee slot. Sorry about the error.

Thanks,

Frank

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (211) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). THE SITUATION: Michigan (0-0) closed out a disappointing 8-5 campaign last year with a listless 26-19 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. Notre Dame (0-0) comes off a 21-17 win over LSU to conclude a 10-3 season in last year’s Citrus Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: The en vogue Hot Take topic this week on sports cable shows has been whether or not Jim Harbaugh is on the hot seat this year at Michigan. Who exactly do these folks think is going to be banging down the doors to take the Michigan job if they dump their prodigal son in Harbaugh after four seasons? Bill Belichick? Harbaugh’s seat is ice-cold in Ann Arbor. But he certainly feels some urgency to start racking up some wins against traditional rivals. The Hot Takers point to Harbaugh’s inability to develop a quarterback in his first three seasons at Michigan while neglecting to remember that he took a graduate transfer in Jake Rudock who had lost his starting job at Iowa and made him into an NFL quarterback still rostered down the road with the Lions in just one year of stewardship with him. Harbaugh also nurtured the growth of a not highly recruited Wilton Speight who will be starting for Chip Kelly at UCLA to start this season. The fact is that two quarterbacks on Harbaugh’s roster failed to meet expectations. Shane Morris was a 5-star QB recruited by the previous head coach Brady Hoke who failed to develop in Harbaugh’s pro-style offense and lost his job to despite being a year older than Speight as a redshirt sophomore. Sensing trouble, Harbaugh brought in another transfer in Houston QB John O’Korn who simply could never learn how to read defenses. Both Morris and O’Korn were too loose with the football which is a red-hot negative for Harbaugh — especially with the outstanding defenses that he has overseen in his tenure at Michigan. Harbaugh has played the transfer card once again this year by acquiring junior Shea Patterson from Ole Miss who was granted a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible after being lied to by the despicable Hugh Freeze about the inevitable sanctions coming down on the Rebels’ football program. Patterson was a 5-star recruit coming out of high school who has shown flashes of brilliance in his first two years at Ole Miss. He was challenged in the offseason by something Harbaugh has yet to experience at Michigan: three other QBs on the depth chart that were his specific recruits. These trials and tribulations at QB aside, the overriding reason why the Wolverines have underachieved in Harbaugh’s tenure has been the play of the offensive line. The program was still feeling the effects of the Rich Rodriguez era who recruited smaller and quicker offensive linemen for his spread option attack when Harbaugh arrived. Harbaugh has also had scheme issues with assistant coaches on offense wanting to accomplish conflicting agendas. Harbaugh has been honest about these missteps during the offseason and swallowed hard by letting one of his long-time cronies in Tim Drevno go who was a co-offensive coordinator along with the offensive line coach. Harbaugh has brought in a new offensive line coach in Ed Warinner who coached Ohio State to a National Championship with that unit. He also tapped former Florida head coach Jim McElwain to serve on the offensive coaching staff with the other offensive coordinator from last year in Pep Hamilton who brings with him an NFL pedigree. Say what you want about Harbaugh but he is not afraid of bringing strong personalities into the room — and he is not standing pat with recent results. That philosophy has worked wonders on the defensive side of the football where third-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has built a dynasty with the talent at his disposal in Ann Arbor after coordinating the nation’s top defense at Boston College back in 2015. Michigan returns nine starters on defense along with fourteen of the top sixteen tacklers from a group that was 3rd in the nation by holding opponents to just 271.0 total YPG. It is the strength on defense led by one of the best defensive lines in the nation that makes the Wolverines the strong play tonight. Notre Dame lost two All-American offensive linemen from last year who were both drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. The Irish are now inexperienced on their offensive line while seeing only one player at the same position from last year’s bowl game. That is not a good sign for an offense that scored only 18.4 PPG in their last four games last year after scoring 41.3 PPG in their first nine contests. It was a breakdown on the offensive line that caused their problems late in the season as they averaged only 145 rushing YPG over those last four games while allowing 16 sacks. Senior Brandon Wimbush looks to be the starting quarterback again this season despite completing only 49.5% of his passes while demonstrating difficulties to adapt to complicated defenses that he will surely see this evening. Don’t be surprised if head coach Brian Kelly calls on redshirt sophomore Ian Book before this game is over after a good spring and a strong outing in their bowl game win. But the team will be without senior running back Dexter Williams who has been suspended for the first four games of this season. The Fighting Irish lost a lot of talent to the NFL from last year while seeing their national recruiting rankings dip over the years from years of disappointment in not returning to the College Football Playoff. Kelly also had to hire his third defensive coordinator in three years with Clark Lea promoted to the position after Mike Elko decided the defensive coordinator position at Texas A&M was more attractive than the one in South Bend. The Irish have failed to cover the point spread in expected close games in 4 of their last 6 contest when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Notre Dame has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Big Ten opponents. Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Harbaugh’s teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total in that 42.5 to 49 range.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan opened as the small road favorite in this game but has been bet down with Notre Dame being the favorite in some spots as the home team in this nationally televised night game. Trust the wisdom in the oddsmakers when they originally posted this line. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Michigan Wolverines (211) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (182) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (181). THE SITUATION: North Texas (0-0) begins their season coming off a 9-5 campaign that culminated in a 50-30 loss to Troy in the New Orleans Bowl. SMU (0-0) was 7-6 last season after an upset 51-10 loss they suffered at the hands of Louisiana Tech.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN MINUS THE POINTS: North Texas returns seventeen starters from last year’s group that played nine bowl teams. The Mean Green need to focus on reducing their turnovers this season: in their nine wins, they had just a -2 net turnover margin but they endured a -9 net turnover margin in their five losses. UNT had a +1 net turnover margin in 2016 so third-year head coach Seth Littrell should receive a positive visit from the Regression Gods this year. Littrell should have his team fired up to play this game after they were crushed by the Mustangs last year in Dallas by a 54-32 score in a game where they suffered a -2 net turnover margin that overwhelmed their matching SMU’s 493 total yards in that game. Now this game is played in Denton where the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games. UNT returns nine players on offense led by QB Mason Fine who oversaw a group that finished 9th in the nation by scoring 35.5 PPG. The Mean Green have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in the month of September. And in their last 9 games played against teams outside Conference USA, North Texas has covered the point spread 7 times. SMU returns fourteen starters but they only have seven seniors on their roster making them a less experienced group overall than last year. The Mustangs defense needs plenty of work as they allowed 476.7 total YPG which was 121st in the FBS — and this is why this game risks being a blowout for the home team. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games in expected high-scoring games where the Total was set at 70 or higher. This will be Sonny Dykes first regular season game coaching for this team after he was hired just in time to coach the team during their bowl game last December. Dykes teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 70 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The road team has lost eight of the last nine games in the dubbed Safeway Bowl between these two teams. Defense has never been a strong suit for Dykes-coached teams — and inherits a group that needed a lot of work. Look for North Texas to avenge their September loss last season. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the North Texas Mean Green (182) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (193) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (194). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) begins their season coming off a 10-3 campaign that ended in a disappointing 35-28 loss to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. Auburn (0-0) saw their National Championship aspirations thwarted by a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship before they limped through their bowl game in an uninspired 34-27 loss to Central Florida in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington opened as a small favorite in the -2.5 range but this game was bet the other way where now it is Auburn laying up to field goal in many spots. Much has been said about this being a de-facto home game for the Tigers who not only are just a short 90 minute drive east on I-20 to Atlanta but will be playing their third straight game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium after the SEC Championship Game then the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. What does not get mentioned in that spiel is that Auburn got blown out in both those games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games played in a dome. The Tigers lost a ton of talent that moved on from the NFL from that team last year. The biggest concern is on the offensive line where they lost five senior starters from last year’s team. Washington lost their massive defensive tackle Vita Vea from their defense who took this talents to the NFL — but they remain a loaded defensive team that returns nine starters with 72% of their tackles back from last year’s team that finished 5th in the FBS by allowing 16.1 PPG while also ranking 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 298.0 total YPG. The Huskies defensive backfield may be the best group in the nation with six players returning who had at least six starts last year — and that group allowed only 5 touchdown passes in Pac-12 play which was the lowest amount since USC in 2008. Washington has key talent returning on offense as well led by senior quarterback Jake Browning and senior running back Myles Gaskin. Injuries decimated the wide receiver unit last year but Browning and Gaskin were the core of the offense two years ago that made the College Football Playoff. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games in the first-half of the season including covering the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played in the opening two weeks of the season. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field — and they are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn is being given a lot of unearned credit for this game being played in Atlanta despite their track record in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Too many bettors are forgetting about the talent Chris Petersen has accumulated in Spokane — and this is probably the best team he has ever coached including his great teams at Boise State. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Washington Huskies (193) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (206) plus the points versus the Washington State (205). THE SITUATION: Washington State Cougars (0-0) kicks off their season coming off an 8-5 campaign that concluded with a 42-17 loss to Michigan State in the Holiday Bowl. Wyoming (1-0) played last Saturday in a dominant 29-7 win at New Mexico State where they were 5.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: We had a strong play on the Under in that Wyoming game last week and were rewarded with a dominant defensive effort from them as they held the Aggies to just 135 yards of offense and a mere seven first downs. Senior running back Nico Evans exploded with 190 rushing yards on 24 carries and two touchdowns while helping the offense control the Time of Possession for 40:41 in that game. Redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal looked steady under center replacing the departed Josh Allen as he completed 13 of 22 passes for 137 yards but did not turn the ball over. The Cowboys return home in a great position to build off that momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Wyoming outgained New Mexico State by +315 net yards in that win — and they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards while also covering the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 175 passing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Wyoming has a significant home-field advantage in the high altitude of Laramie which is 7220 feet above sea level — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. This is a difficult opening game for a Washington State team that has lost five of their last six opening games under head coach Mike Leach. The Cougars have also lost seven straight opening games to a new season when on the road. This team’s fitness will certainly be challenged by the thin air in Laramie that they will not be familiar with. As it is, Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. The Cougars return just ten starters from last year’s group with Leach still officially noncommittal regarding who will replace their quarterback Luke Falk. This will be the first time in seven seasons where Washington State is unsettled at the QB position. Leach has a couple of jucos and a true freshman in the mix but it will likely be a graduate transfer in Gardner Minshew who came over from East Carolina who will get the call. The Cougars have been last in the FBS in five of the last six seasons in rushing attempts so this is not a program that is built to have the running game make things easier for their quarterback. The defense lost two of the key contributors last year in All-American defensive end Hercules Mata’afa and defensive coordinator Alex Brinch who oversaw significant improvement with that unit. Washington State has won sixteen of their last twenty games at home to demonstrate a strong home field advantage — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against a non-conference opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has a significant advantage in having their first game under their belts. They return home with confidence that makes them a dangerous underdog in this game against a football team with a history of poor starts to a new season — especially on the road. 25* CFB CBS-Sports Network Game of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (206) plus the points versus the Washington State (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (173) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (174). THE SITUATION: Texas (0-0) enters this game coming off a 7-6 campaign that concluded with a 33-16 win over Missouri in the Texas Bowl. Maryland (0-0) comes off a disappointing 4-8 campaign. While the Terrapins are the technical home team for this contest, the game will be played on a technical neutral field at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland which is the home of the Washington Redskins.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: The Terrapins are a mess right now amidst the tragedy in the offseason where one of their players passed away during a summer practice. The debacle has third-year head coach D.J. Durkin suspended for this game and fighting to keep his job after the utter failure in control to maintain the safety of his players. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada will serve as the interim head coach after coming off from LSU in the offseason. What Maryland did not need to enter this season was more turmoil after they lost seven of their last eight games to close out a once-promising season. The Terrapins were blitzed in Big Ten play by being outgained by a whopping 128 net YPG. They are likely to start a freshman QB this afternoon in Kasim Hill who looked good in three games last year before suffering an ACL injury that ended his season. But this remains a Maryland team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Texas returns fourteen starters from last year’s group that lost four games by four points or less. This was also a team riddled with injuries as they ranked 13th in the nation with 38 games lost by prospective starters to injuries. This team should make a major leap in quality of play in the second-year under head coach Tom Herman. The defense sees seven starters return from a group that tied for 29th in the FBS by allowing only 21.2 PPG. The Longhorns led the nation in 3rd down defense while ranking 4th in the nation by stuffing opponent’s rushing plays at or behind the line of scrimmage in 27.1% of those plays. The offense is the area that should the most immediate growth with Herman being an offensive guru - he has tapped sophomore Sam Ehlinger as his starter. Texas has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. Additionally, the Longhorns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing in September. Lastly, Texas will have revenge on their minds after being shocked by the Terrapins at home last year by a 51-41 score. Maryland rushed for 263 yards in that opening game last year — but this Longhorns defense has come a long way since that September 2nd contest.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has had this game circled on their schedule for a long time now as they will be very motivated to start out strong after getting upset as 19-point favorites last year at this time. They should smell blood in the proverbial water with these Terrapins rocked with scandal. 10* CFB Texas-Maryland FS1-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (173) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (174). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (149) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (148). Colorado State (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a disappointing effort last week in their 43-34 upset loss at home to Hawai’i last Saturday despite being 17-point favorites in that game. Colorado (0-0) makes their debut this season after suffering a 5-7 campaign last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado State was not ready to face the Rainbow Warriors new Run-and-Shoot passing offense as they surrendered 617 yards in that contest with 418 of those yards being in the air. The Rams defense has a new staff this season led by new defensive coordinator John Jancek who had served as the coordinator for the Tennessee defense from 2013-15. He had his unit switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme and has to be very frustrated with the efforts of his group. But that should have ensured an alert group of players in practice this week. As it is, Colorado State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Colorado State can take some positives from that game as graduate transfer K.J. Carta Samuels looked very good running the offense. The former Washington quarterback completed 34 of 50 passes for 537 yards while throwing 5 touchdown passes. Overall, the Rams generated 653 yards against Hawai’i — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 375 yards. Moving forward, Colorado State is 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games when facing an opponent outside the Mountain West Conference. Colorado returns only ten starters from last year’s team that took a big step back from a 10-4 season back on 2016. The concern for sixth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre is just how swift the decline was last season as not only did they lose seven of their nine games in Pac-12 play but they were outgained by -87 net YPG against those opponents. The team returns junior Steven Montez at quarterback but they must replace their running back Phillip Lindsay along with their top four starters at wide receiver and three straight starters on the offensive line. The defense struggled to stop the run last year as they allowed their opponents to average 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 109th by giving up 208.0 rushing YPG. They return four of their starters in that front seven — and they have to replace Isaiah Oliver in their defensive backfield who left for the NFL from a group that was 94th against the pass. This game will be played on a neutral field in Denver at the Broncos Stadium at Mile High — and the Buffaloes are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State should play much better this week on defense with the benefit of a game under their belts. It will be Colorado that will be dealing with opening day jitters and rust in this contest. While the Rams are very frustrated with their loss last week to Hawai’i, that all can be rectified by upsetting their in-state rival this week. Expect a close game where having the points will be quite valuable. 25* CFB Game of the Month with  Colorado State Rams (149) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (159) and the Duke Blue Devils (160). THE SITUATION: Army (0-0) enters the new season coming off a triumphant 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 42-35 victory over San Diego State in the Armed Forces Bowl. Wake Forest (0-0) comes off a 7-6 season that ended with a 36-14 win over Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Black Knights return eight starters along with five of their last top seven tacklers from a strong group that finished tied for 32nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.0 PPG while also ranking 32nd in the FBS by limiting their opponents to only 349.7 total YPG. This defense should be quite good right out of the gates this season — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Army is rebuilding of offense as they only returned three starters from last year’s group including their quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw. The Black Knights have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. Duke has the benefit of having all of fall camp to prepare for Army’s spread triple option. The Blue Devils always invest time to prepare for this unique offense with Georgia Tech on the schedule year-after-year. These two teams played last year and while Duke was upset by a 21-16 score as a 4-point favorite, they did hold Army to 136 yards below their rushing YPG mark while limiting them to just 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry. The Blue Devils have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the first-half of the season. Duke has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The defenses should be ahead of the offenses in this August contest. Duke should also be able to slow down the rebuilding Army offense that they did a fine job against last year in a game that finished 15 points Under the Total. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (159) and the Duke Blue Devils (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (144) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (143). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (0-0) begins their season coming off a lackluster 4-8 campaign last year. Western Michigan (0-0) was 6-6 last year and also missed out on a bowl like the Orange.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan was ravaged with injuries last season — they lost twenty-one players to season-ending injuries. The defense was hit hard with the loss of five safeties that just wreaks havoc on positional depth. But the Broncos were hit even worse on offense where they lost five running backs, five wide receivers and their starting quarterback Jon Wassink who suffer a season-ending injury in Week Eight. Western Michigan was a solid 5-3 with Wassink starting the game but lost three of their last four games once he went on the shelf with that depleted offense. Yet the Broncos still ended the season tied for 25th by scoring 33.9 PPG. This has the potential to be an explosive offense — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set at least at 63. Wassink led the Mid-American Conference by completing 64.2% of their passes. They should play very well tonight with this opportunity to upset a Power-Five Conference opponent. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against non-conference opponents. Syracuse has lost fourteen of their last eighteen games when opening their season on the road. The Orange collapsed on defense last year as they allowed 54 PPG with that unit exposed from their lack of depth. That unit may have simply been exhausted for being on the field too long in the Dino Babers hurry-up offense that has the residual negative effect of keeping his defense on the field. But this is also a team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of August. Lastly, Syracuse is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Western Michigan is just one year removed from their 13-1 campaign and remain a dangerous Group of Five opponent for any Power-Five team. Expect a close game where the Broncos have the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* CFB Friday Night Kick Off with the Western Michigan Broncos (144) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (136) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (135). THE SITUATION: Purdue (0-0) finished with a 7-6 record last year after they defeated Arizona by a 38-35 score in the Foster Farms Bowl. Northwestern (0-0) concluded a strong 10-3 season with their 24-23 victory over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats won last year’s meeting between these two teams back on November 11th by a 23-13 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Purdue will also be looking to avenge a rough 45-17 loss to Northwestern the last time these two teams played in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers had a 10-0 early lead in that game before surrendering a whopping 605 yards in that blowout loss. Purdue has lost their last four games against the Wildcats but this will be just their second meeting against them with second-year head coach Jeff Brohm. He leads the Boilermakers to a 7-6 winning record last year which was a big improvement over their 3-9 campaign in 2016. Brohm is an offensive coach but the team’s progress was best measured by their significantly better play on defense as they ranked 24th in the FBS by allowing only 20.5 PPG. Only four starters return from that unit but defensive coordinators Nick Holt and Anthony Poindexter have the benefit of working with these players for over a year now. Brohm has not tipped his hand regarding who his starting quarterback will be after relying on senior David Blough and junior Elijah Sindelar last season. It looks like it will be Sindelar will get the nod (although I suspect both players will get time in this game). The big-armed QB passed for 376 yards against Northwestern last season. If there are some speed bumps with the Boilermakers defense this year, their offense that returns nine starters should keep them in this game. Purdue has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as a favorite — and the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the first half of the season. Northwestern enjoyed a very fortunate season last year as they led the nation with the fewest games lost to injury while benefiting from winning all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. The big question for this team is the health of their 5th-year senior quarterback Clayton Thorson who tore his ACL in the Music City Bowl. While head coach Pat Fitzgerald has not announced who will be his starting QB for this game, Thorson was cleared to take part in practices earlier this month and will likely. However, Thorson has yet to see his recovered knee tested against live competition. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the first two weeks of a new season.

FINAL TAKE: Brohm proved he was one of the best coaches in the country by immediately making the Boilermakers competitive after building a very strong program at Western Kentucky. Northwestern enters this season probably a bit overvalued — and their QB situation is less than ideal with Thorson returning from injury. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Purdue Boilermakers (136) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (140) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (139). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (0-0) comes off an 8-5 season last year that culminated by 55-52 win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Tulane (0-0) is looking to reach a bowl game this year after a 5-7 campaign in 2018.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane returns fourteen starters from last year’s team in the third season under head coach Willie Fritz. The offense should make a jump this year after averaging 27.5 PPG as the personnel on the roster continues to better fit the run-first spread option that Fritz oversaw at Georgia Southern before coming over to the Big Easy. His Green Wave teams have steadily improved as their -20 net point differential last year was much better than the -43 net point differential in 2016 and the ugly -199 net point differential in that 2015 year prior to Fritz being wooed from Georgia Southern. Fritz has the quarterback to run this offense with senior Jonathan Banks who made big improvements in the second-half of last season with his passing game as he threw for 565 yards in those two games to offer a better complement to the Tulane ground game. Not coincidentally, the Green Wave upset Houston and almost upset SMU in those two games. This Tulane team was battle-tested last year as they faced nine bowl-eligible teams — and they lost four of these games by 6 points or less. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Tulane has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Furthermore, Fritz should have his team ready to play as the Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the first-half of the season in his tenure. Wake Forest has lost twenty-two of their last twenty-nine road openers straight-up — so they are prone to slow starts. They will be without their top quarterback on the depth chart in junior Kendall Hinton who was expected to replace the graduated John Wolford. Hinton has been suspended for the first three games of this season. Even worse for head coach Dave Clawson, sophomore Jamie Newman is questionable for this game with a quad injury which leaves the team relying on a true freshman in Sam Hartman as their man under center tonight. Hartman was lower-ranked QB coming out of high school than Newman so this is not a good turn of events for this Demon Deacon team that returned eight other starters on offense. Wake Forest lost some key players on the defensive side of the football so that group may be work in progress early this year. The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest opens this season with a number of question marks on both sides of the football which makes them precarious favorites when playing in a hostile environment. Expect a close game. 20* CFB Wake Forest-Tulane CBS Sports Network Special with the Tulane Green Wave (140) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (139). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (291) and the New Mexico State Aggies (292). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-0) closed out last season by winning their second straight bowl game when they defeated Central Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 37-14 score. New Mexico State (0-0) also ended their season on a high-note when they upset Utah State in the Arizona Bowl by a 26-20 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Wyoming will be learning to live life without Josh Allen declared early for the NFL draft who was then drafted in the 1st round by Buffalo. But even with that blue-chipper under center, the Cowboys only scored 23.5 PPG while averaging a mere 286.0 total YPG which ranked 104th and 125th in the FBS. Struggles with their offensive line made things difficult for Allen under center — and they only averaged 3.17 Yards-Per-Carry which was 6th worst in the nation. It is difficult to imagine this offensive unit to be much better out of the blocks without Allen. Head coach Craig Bohl has named redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal as the starting quarterback over an experienced senior in Nick Smith — but this will be his first collegiate start and he will be doing it on the road in a nationally televised night game. As it is, Wyoming has paled 4 of their last 5 games away from home Under the Total. The Cowboys have also played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. But the foundation of this team last year was a defense that ranked 9th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Eight starters return from that unit including All-Mountain West Conference candidates at all three levels — so Bohl will likely lean on this group heavily to begin the year. Wyoming has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on field turf. New Mexico State (0-0) makes their debut as an independent after their contract with the Sun Belt last season. They also have a new starting quarterback with head coach Doug Martin tapping junior college transfer Matt Romero over senior Nick Jeanty. But the Aggies will also have the luxury of leaning on an experienced defense as they return ten of their top eleven tacklers from last year’s team. New Mexico State was a bend-but-do-not-break group last year on defense as they were 7th in the nation in 3rd Down defense while ranking 41st in the FBS in Red Zone defense. This should be an even better group under the guidance of an outstanding defensive coach in defensive coordinator Frank Spaziano who had some elite defensive units when he was the head coach at Boston College. The Aggies have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on field-turf — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: With both these teams kicking off their seasons early with experienced defenses and rookie quarterbacks, expect this to be a low-scoring game. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (291) and the New Mexico State Aggies (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (294) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Warriors (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) closed out last season losing their last five games to conclude a disappointing 3-9 campaign. Colorado State (0-0) comes off a 7-6 season that ended in disappointment when they were upset as 5.5-point favorites to Marshall in the New Mexico Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE COLORADO STATE MINUS THE POINTS: The Rams enters this season returning nine starters from the team. The team had a scare this month with head coach Mike Bobo having a medical issue — but he was cleared to rejoin the team on Wednesday and will be on the sidelines for this opening contest. Colorado State was very close to experiencing a much better year that could have included a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. The team blew a 14-point lead to Boise State with 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter before losing to the Broncos in overtime. The Rams outgained their Mountain West Conference opponents by +76 net YPG but only had a 5-3 record. Suffering three net upsets ruined what could have been a much better final record. Talent remains on this team particularly at running back. They also have an intriguing player at quarterback in graduate transfer K.J. Carta-Samuels who has been the backup at Washington for the last few seasons. Colorado State typically starts strong as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the month of August. The Rams also enjoy a strong home-field advantage in the high altitude of Colorado. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by 14.5 to 17 points — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Hawai’i has only one victory in the Mountain Time Zone since 2012 when they joined the Mountain West Conference. They return nine starters for a team that is implementing new schemes on both sides of the football — so this early game is a big challenge for this inexperienced group. They will have a new quarterback under center as well with Dru Brown ending his 22-straight starts by transferring to Oklahoma State in the offseason. The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when getting 14.5 to 21 points. Additionally, Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Lastly, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in Mountain West Conference play.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State crushed Hawai’i in their last meeting on September 30th by a 51-21 score. It might be tempting to take the Warriors with this opportunity to avenge a loss where they surrendered so many points — but that will be a tough task for this young team so early in the season when adjusting to a new 4-3 defense along with new schemes on offense. Bobo’s teams are reliable at home when they are expected to overwhelm their opponent. 10* CFB Hawaii-Colorado State CBS-Sports Network Special with the Colorado State Rams (294) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Warriors (293). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Everything for Philadelphia (15-3) went right after falling behind in the NFC Championship Game after they fell behind by a 7-0 score as they then rattled off 38 unanswered points to upset the Vikings by a 38-7 score. Their momentum was triggered by a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown that tied the score at 7-7 and settled down Nick Foles and the Eagles offense while also igniting the crowd. We had Minnesota in that game — and, frankly, I am largely dismissing that result as the outcome of two outlier performances. The Vikings probably played their worst game of the season as they admitted in retrospect that they were emotionally spent after their dramatic last-second win over the Saints the previous week. Philadelphia also played one of their best games of the season — and I am expecting a big letdown for this team after such a dominant performance. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. But Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as a home dog. Remember, this Eagles team squeaked by Atlanta in their previous playoff game due in large measure to the ineffective Falcons Red Zone offense this season. Despite how good Foles’ playoff numbers are (that we will hear about for two weeks), the Eagles scored only 15 points against Atlanta despite being at home. Over their last three games, Philly is scoring just 17.7 PPG while averaging a mere 336.3 total YPG. In Foles’ first four games since taking over for Carson Wentz, he was Checkdown Charlie who completed just 2 of his 15 passes of more than 20 yards in the air for a miserable 13.8 Passer Rating. Foles exploded against Minnesota by completing 4 of 6 passes of 20 or more yards in the air for 172 yards and two TD passes — but I have to credit some of that to the Vikings’ simply being shellshocked during what turned out to be a 38-0 run. Foles looked awful in his final two regular season games. I expect the true Nick Foles is somewhere in the middle of these performances — and that is not in Tom Brady’s dimension. The Philadelphia defense also deserves mention as they have flexed their muscles by allowing just 33 combined points over their last four games while never allowing more than 10 points in any of those games. But all those games were at home. In their three previous games on the road (before this recent stretch), the Eagles allowed 88 combined points at Seattle, at the Los Angeles Rams and at the New York Giants (and no doubt the Patriots will study what Eli Manning did in shredding the Philly defense for 795 passing yards in two games this season). Philadelphia allowed 23.5 PPG on the road this season with six of their eight opponents scoring at least 23 points — their seasonal stats are skewed by allowing just 9 points against that Cowboys team without both Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith. Playing on turf might also be an issue for this team after playing on field turf just three times this season. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the faster field turf. Throw-in their lack of recent playoff experience playing away from home and the lack of Super Bowl experience for most of the players and coaches on the staff and this is all new territory for this team. With the back of all the members of this organization knowing that they reached the Super Bowl without QB Carson Wentz, left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks, this team has the profile of a group that may turn out to just be happy to be in the Super Bowl.

New England (15-3) is clearly focused on winning a second straight Super Bowl while adding credentials to the mark in the history books. Remember that this team began the year with talk of them going through the season undefeated. While that did not happen, they have now won five straight games with their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning at least five straight games. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in ten of their last twelve games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Eagles were able to seize momentum against the Vikings not only with that defensive touchdown but also with a +3 net turnover margin. It is highly unlikely that the Patriots will be as giving as Minnesota was. New England has only turned the ball over three times in their last five games — and never more than one time during those five games. In fact, the Patriots only had 13 turnovers all season with just four of those games seeing them turn the ball over more than once and never more than twice in a game. New England has turned the ball over twice in only two games over their last twelve contests. This is a team that emphasizes protecting the football. They also have a significantly better Special Teams than the Eagles (at least according to Football Outsiders than ranks the Patriots as 2nd in the NFL while rating the Philly Special Teams unit 21st in the league). Additionally, let me state something that will appear obvious at first glance but perhaps a subtler reason to like New England in this game upon deeper reflection: the key to this game for the Eagles is to prevent the Patriots from getting off to a fast start. New England has played ten playoffs games over the last four postseasons where they are 9-1 straight-up with two Super Bowl trophies and a third pending. The Patriots have gone into halftime with a lead in five of those games — and they have gone on to win all five of those games by an average winning margin of +20.6 PPG with the closest final score being their 27-20 win over Kansas City in the Divisional round in January 2016 where they went on to lose at Denver. In those remaining five games where they either trailed or were tied at halftime, they still on to win four of those games. Three of those wins were by 4 points with last year’s Super Bowl being that 34-26 overtime win over the Falcons. So perhaps Eagles bettors will take comfort in their potential halftime lead given those numbers? Yeah, maybe — as if those three 4-point wins represents overwhelming evidence versus a point spread that looks destined to be in the -4.5 to -5.5 point range (as of this writing). But I took note of the fact that the Patriots have not gone to halftime without a lead in two straight playoff games since this latest Super Bowl run started in the 2014-15 season. After trailing Jacksonville last week at the half by a 14-10 score and the memory of their near-disastrous 21-3 halftime deficit to the Falcons in last year’s Super Bowl, I think that Bill Belichick will place a premium on getting off to a good start. And with their vast playoff experience and the fact that almost everything went right for the Eagles in the first-half last week when they went to the lockers with a 24-7 lead, why would one not expect New England to once again avoid trailing (or being tied) at halftime in two straight playoff games? Consistency defines Belichick and Tom Brady. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. And in their last 36 games as the favorite, the Patriots have then covered the point spread in 27 of these games. Perhaps the Eagles pull off their third straight upset victory? Perhaps the Patriots will win yet another Super Bowl by 4 points or less like they have done in four of their five Super Bowl Championships in the Belichick-Brady era? Perhaps … but it seems like almost everything has to go right for the Eagles to be in that position. New England has shown that even if everything does not go right for them, they still enter into coin-flip situations regarding if they will cover the point spread. And if the breaks go mostly their way, the Patriots cover the point spread easily. That is a great betting scenario when our worst case scenario still puts us in solid shape. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the New England Patriots (102). New England (15-3) reached the Super Bowl with their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots offense was slowed down a bit from both Rob Gronkowski’s concussion as well as a questionable fumble call on running back Deion Lewis for what was looking like a touchdown drive midway through the second-half. That game finished below the 46-point total for that game — but New England has still played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the playoffs. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as the number one seed in the playoffs. This offense has been remarkably consistent this season. For the year, they are scoring 28.7 PPG while averaging 393.3 total YPG. In their eight games away from this season, New England is scoring 27.9 PPG while averaging 398.9 total YPG. In their last three contests, the Pats are scoring 28.3 PPG while averaging 370.7 total YPG. And in their twelve games played on field turf this year, New England is scoring 28.4 PPG while generating 392.2 total YPG. In fact, the Patriots have played a decisive 67 of their last 100 games Over the Total when playing on field turf which includes not only their home games but also those away games on turf which is the surface for this Super Bowl in Minnesota. Gronkowski should be able to play in this game with two weeks to get through the concussion protocol (and how high is his normal baseline test that he has to reach anyways?). At full strength, this New England offense is simply loaded with diverse weapons this season. Tom Brady has much more options at his disposal than the one last year that scored 34 points in overtime in their win over the Falcons.

Philadelphia (15-3) generated 456 yards of offense against an outstanding Vikings defense last week in their 38-7 win over Minnesota to win the NFC Championship Game. Doug Pederson and the offensive coaching staff for the Eagles have done a masterful job in using the bye week in the first-round of the playoffs to install an offense tailored to the skill set of QB Nick Foles. He completed 26 of 33 passes last week against the Vikings for 352 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. In the playoffs, Foles has completed 49 of his 63 passes for 602 yards. Philadelphia has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last contest. On the defensive side of the football, the Under deserves consideration since the Eagles have allowed just 33 combined points over their last four games while never allowing more than 10 points in any of those games. But all those games were at home. In their three previous games on the road (before this recent stretch), the Eagles allowed 88 combined points at Seattle, at the Los Angeles Rams and at the New York Giants (and no doubt the Patriots will study what Eli Manning did in shredding the Philly defense for 795 passing yards in two games this season). Philadelphia allowed 23.5 PPG on the road this season with six of their eight opponents scoring at least 23 points — their seasonal stats are skewed by allowing just 9 points against that Cowboys team without both Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith. As it is, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. Playing on turf is also an issue since Philly played most of their games on grass which tends to slow down speedy offensive players. The Eagles have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Furthermore, their win over the Vikings finished above the 39 point total for that game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lastly, the pressure of the Super Bowl and needing to defeat Brady and his uncanny ability to generate 4th quarter comebacks will likely compel Doug Pederson to be aggressive with his play-calling and decisions — and that should create more scoring opportunities for both teams (one way or another). 25* NFL Super Bowl *A-List* O/U Special with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the New England Patriots (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

SUPER BOWL PROPOSITIONS BETTING CARD. Please note that this Prop Bets Report is only a bonus; the Guarantee policy applies only to the Super Bowl Over part of this Report. Thanks, Frank.

Our Best Bet Wager is on the Tom Brady completing more passes than Nick Foles with the line at -3 passes — priced at -170 at Bovada. To be clear, Brady has to complete four more passes than Foles to win this bet (with Brady completing three more passes than Foles pushing the bet). Philadelphia is more anxious to run the football to control the line of scrimmage while burning time off the clock to keep the Patriots offense off the field. New England will pass a bit more for two reasons in addition to that. First, they are going to run more plays on offense because it is highly likely they will operate their no-huddle offense to attempt to thwart the Eagles ability to rotate players on the defensive line. Second, Jim Schwartz’s defense will likely protect the deeper ball which will leave a soft underbelly for 5 to 7 yard passing plays — and Brady has shown a proclivity to be very happy to nickel-and-dime his way down the field with these short passes. I much prefer a Brady-Completions Bet to a Brady-Passing Yards Bet for this reason. Additionally, if the Eagles are winning this game in the second half, they will move to running the ball even more. However, even if the Patriots are winning in the second half, the trust in Brady is so high that they will continue to pass the ball with those short but safe passes.

Our Top Underlay Wager is with the Patriots -0.5 points in the 4th quarter which Bovada prices at -110. We all know how good Tom Brady has been in the 4th quarter in Super Bowls with the memory of New England’s big 4th quarter comeback against Atlanta last year (as well as against Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game two weeks ago). In Brady’s last two Super Bowls, he has completed 29 of 36 passes in the 4th quarter for 320 yards with two TDs, no interceptions and a Quarterback Rating of 129. If the Patriots are trailing again, Brady should make the game close (at the very least). But if New England is winning, I don’t love Nick Foles’ ability to rally his team if he is forced to throw the football. Foles is at his best when operating the Run-Pass Option — and those plays require the ability to take what the defense gives you when the receiver is covered. Foles will feel compelled to throw the football if the Eagles need quick scoring. Foles’ productivity also significantly declines if and when he is under pressure. The Patriots will certainly feel free to apply pressure with blitzes and other schemes if they know Foles is throwing the football.

Our Long Shot Wager is on Zack Ertz to have the most receiving yards in this game which Bovada places at +400. The value is in choosing an Eagles passing target since the Patriots have so many weapons in their passing game with Brady often going to his running backs (in those short safety valve passes which makes our Top Underlay Bet so intriguing). So I consider all the Patriot options for this bet Overlays (with Rob Gronkowski the favorite at +300 and Brandin Cooks tied for second favorite at +400). Ertz is not only one of the best tight ends in the NFL by also Philadelphia’s most reliable pass catcher. Furthermore, the Patriots’ linebackers to struggle in pass coverage — and this is a prime area for the Eagles to exploit. If the Eagles enjoy a second-half lead, Ertz will likely have played a big part. If they are trailing, Ertz will be a key component in their passing game. In the end, have fun with these bets but please keep in mind I still consider the best (and most reliable) two betting options for the Super Bowl to be our Side and Totals plays. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Minnesota (14-3) has won four straight games with their 29-24 win over New Orleans on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. The Vikings have then played 15 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home where they failed to cover the point spread as a favorite. Additionally, not only has Minnesota played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games but they have played 27 of their last 42 road games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Case Keenum led an offense that generated 493 yards against the Saints defense. Moving forward, they have played a decisive 57 of their last 87 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

Philadelphia (14-3) has won four of their last five games with their 15-10 upset win over the Falcons as a 2.5-point underdog. The Eagles won that game despite enduring a -2 net turnover margin in that game — and that came off losing the turnover battle in their last regular season game against the Cowboys. Philadelphia has then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. The Eagles have also played 7 straight games Over the Total after losing the turnover battle in at least two straight games. Philadelphia has not rushed for more than 96 yards in three straight games — but they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. Additionally, Philly has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while this stout Eagles defense has allowed only 10, 6 and 10 points in each of their last three games, those results help trigger a contrarian Over play. For starters, Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. Lastly, because the Eagles have played their last three games Under the Total by at least 15 points, the Under is supported by a strong empirical angle that has been 69% effective over the last ten seasons. In games involving a team that has played their last three games Under the total by at least a touchdown, these games finished Over the Total in 48 of the last 70 situations where these conditions applied. Even better, if this game is between Conference rivals, then this Over angle tightens to a crisp 38 of 53 (72%) clip. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Philadelphia (14-3) has won four of their last five games with their 15-10 upset win at home against the Falcons last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Eagles got out their Dog Masks after the game to bask in their pulling the upset against Atlanta — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset win at home as an underdog. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory. The Eagles survived that game despite a -2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a game where they committed at least two more turnovers than their opponent. QB Nick Foles is the reason why this team is an underdog yet again in this game — but it is for good reason. He was solid against the Falcons after completing 23 of 30 passes for 246 yards with no interceptions. But he did not throw a touchdown pass - -and he rushed for -2 yards. Unfortunately for the Eagles, that was probably the most they can expect to get out of their backup QB. Remember that Foles struggled in his previous two starts against Dallas and Oakland — he completed just 23 of 49 passes for 202 yards with one TD pass and two interceptions in those two games combined. The Eagles did use the bye week to redesign their offense by having Foles run the read-option plays that he thrived executing in his one season running the Chip Kelly offense with the Eagles a few years ago. Who knows if the Falcons spent much time preparing for that blast from the past last week in practice — but it is a guarantee that the Mike Zimmer will make sure his team invests a significant amount of time preparing for read-options that other teams like the Cowboys and Panthers also deploy. So the element of surprise for Philadelphia running this offense is gone. Foles sees his effectiveness decline significantly when facing pressure — and he does not do a great job making quick decisions regarding his read progressions with wide receivers. Those are bad qualities to have when facing this ferocious Vikings’ defense. The Eagles are scoring just 11.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging only 256.3 total YPG. The rushing game has not been able to step up to take pressure off Foles. Philadelphia has not rushed for more than 96 yards in three straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs.

Minnesota (14-3) survived their game with New Orleans last week with their 29-24 win Saints salvaged by the 61-yard touchdown pass to Stefan Diggs as time expired. I think that miraculous victory will galvanize this team and give them confidence moving forward — and it certainly cements any lingering doubts about the ability of Case Keenum to lead this team to the promise land. As it is, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while Minnesota failed to cover the 5.5-point spread as the favorite, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Keenum completed 25 of 40 passes for 318 yards and a touchdown pass against the Saints — and the Vikings have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Minnesota defense did give up 358 yards to the Drew Brees-led New Orleans offense — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The encouraging aspect of the Vikings defense for this game is their run defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL by limiting team to just 83.6 rushing YPG. They have allowed only 74 rushing YPG over their last  three games after giving up just 30 and 80 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. This stout Vikings defense is particularly good on 3rd Down where they were tops in the NFL in limiting opposing offenses in converting 3rd Down plays. In fact, Minnesota only allowed opposing offenses to convert 51 3rd Downs during the regular season. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games as the favorite. 25* NFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BRADY WRIST-GATE UPDATE (Friday): The line has moved down to New England in the -7.5 point range with the news that Tom Brady injured his throwing wrist in practice. I released my AFC plays before this took place (taking the Patriots at -8.5). The Patriots’ Beat Writer says that the “chatter” is that Brady injured the area between his thumb forefinger. Brady can still throw but his snaps under center may be limited. Pain is the biggest issue (and he will likely be shot up before kickoff). That all said, in general, I don’t let rumors of injuries sway my handicapping on a game — so my recommendation is to just ride things out (like I am) if you you have already invested in this play. If you have yet to bet, I would jump all over any -7s you can find and be happy with -7.5. I am not letting these rumors diffuse from the strong fundamental play on the Patriots. For those needing a pick me up, I did hear that Brady has, in fact, thrown some passes in practice. It makes sense for the Pats to exhibit extreme caution with their veteran. Brady still benefited from just walking through the Thursday/Friday practices where specific offensive game plans and Red Zone plays were worked on — and many former NFL QBs argued that just walking through those plays to intellectualize them is all Brady really needs. Thanks, Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Jacksonville (12-6) caught the Steelers looking way ahead to a possible rematch with their arch-nemesis New England last Sunday — and they raced out to a 21-0 lead in Pittsburgh before surviving by a 45-42 score as a 7-point underdog. I do expect this Jaguars team to suffer from an emotional letdown after that upset victory on the road. Not only has this team failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a 28-14 lead at halftime in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after holding at least a two-touchdown lead at halftime of their last game. Now this team stays on the road for the fourth time in their last five games which is a dangerous proposition for a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. Some are comparing this team to the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants teams that have had success against  the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady teams of the Patriots in the playoffs — and Tom Coughlin is an executive with this team with plenty of influence. But those teams had two significant differences with this Jaguars team. First, Blake Bortles has yet to prove he is (even) in the Joe Flacco or Eli Manning class of quarterbacks. Admittedly, he did not turn the ball over last week while completing 14 of 26 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown pass — and this performance earned rave reviews from many NFL pundits who lower than standards when assessing him. Keep in mind that Bortles completed only three passes that traveled in the air more than 10 yards against the Steelers. And Jacksonville was able to never ask Bortles to do too much after racing out to that early lead — helped greatly by yet another defensive touchdown against that Pittsburgh team. Remember that it was just a short week ago when Bortles became just the 5th NFL passer to not generate at least 100 yards in the air in a playoff game since 2006 in that contest with the Bills where he visibly looked uncomfortable to throw the ball downfield. Second, this Jaguars defense is good — but this is not an elite unit like those Giants or Ravens groups. Yes, the Jaguars finished 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yardage (286.1 total YPG) — but check out their strength of schedule. Jacksonville was able to pad their numbers with NFL’s least productive division in terms of offense in the AFC South against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston (they were fortunate to avoid QB DeShaun Watson both times). Throw in additional games against Cleveland, Baltimore in Week Three (that London game when their offense was ravaged with injuries and still finding itself), Cincinnati in Week Seven (when their offensive line was imploding) and then Buffalo in the Wild Card game. Then throw in their first game with the Steelers where they won by a 30-9 score with the benefit of two defensive touchdowns and five interceptions — and they allowed 65 combined points for a measly 6.5 PPG scoring average in those top ten defensive performances. There are six games — representing 33% of their results this year that should raise eyebrows for the wrong reasons: last week against the Steelers where they allowed 42 points and 545 yards of offense; allowing 44 points and 364 yards of offense against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers offense on December 24th; allowing 27 points and 344 yards of offense led by Blaine Gabbert; allowing 27 points in a loss to the LA Rams on October 15th; allowing 23 points and a whopping 471 yards in a loss to the Jets on October 1st; allowing 37 points and 390 yards of offense to Titans back on September 17th. Of their eighteen games including their two in the playoffs, Jacksonville has played six playoff teams (with the Bills and Steelers’ second-meeting being in the actual playoffs). They are 3-3 overall in those games — but they are allowing 22.2 PPG and 341.7 total YPG in those six contests. Of course, the Jaguars had the benefit of facing the likely two worst teams to make the playoffs in Tennessee (twice) and Buffalo in the Wildcard round. Take away those three games to just assess how this Jaguars defense performed against Pittsburgh (twice) and the LA Rams and the results are simply unimpressive: 26.0 PPG and 388.3 total YPG allowed. Where this Jags’ defense struggles when compares to those Super Bowl winning Ravens and Giants teams that defeated the Brady/Belichick combo is in run defense. Jacksonville ranked 21st in the NFL during the regular season by allowing 116.2 rushing YPG. This is where the Patriots will attack. And while the Jaguars held the Steelers to just 83 rushing yards (on only 18 carries with Pittsburgh playing from a big deficit), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game.

New England (14-3) will focus their defensive efforts on taking away the Jaguars’ best offensive weapon — and that means their rookie running back Leonard Fournette. In their 35-14 win over the Titans last week, the Patriots held Tennessee to just 65 rushing yards on only 16 rushing attempts. I made the same argument last week that the Pats would focus on stopping Derrick Henry and force QB Marcus Mariota to beat them. Marietta threw the ball 37 times for only 202 yards. Pundits that are still assessing the Patriots’ season-long statistics are missing the point. Ignore the fact that New England ranks 20th in run defense (114.8 rushing YPG). Over their last three games, the Patriots are holding teams to just 63 rushing YPG along with a 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry average. They have allowed only three rushing TDs since Week Five which is the second stingiest number in the league. In fact, since Week Five, the New England defense leads the NFL by holding opponents to just a 64.7% scoring success rate in the End Zone — and they also lead the NFL by allowing only 14.0 PPG since Week Five. And forget the Hot Take that the Patriots lack a pass rush as this year’s team ranks 6th in the NFL since Week Five with 34 sacks — and that was before they sacked Mariota last week eight times. New England has not allowed more than 17 points in each of their last six games at home. This team is rolling having won and covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring at least 30 points int heir last game. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 playoff games at home, New England has covered the point spread all 5 times. 20* NFL Jacksonville-New England CBS-TV Special with the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BRADY WRIST-GATE UPDATE (Friday): The line has moved down to New England to the 45 point total range with the news that Tom Brady injured his throwing wrist in practice. I released my AFC plays before this took place (taking the Over at 46.5). The Patriots’ Beat Writer says that the “chatter” is that Brady injured the area between his thumb forefinger. Brady can still throw but his snaps under center may be limited. Pain is the biggest issue (and he will likely be shot up before kickoff). That all said, in general, I don’t let rumors of injuries sway my handicapping on a game — so my recommendation is to just ride things out (like I am) if you you have already invested in this play. If you have yet to bet, I would jump all over any 45s you can find and be happy with -45.5. I am not letting these rumors diffuse from the strong fundamental play on the Over. For those needing a pick me up, I did hear that Brady has, in fact, thrown some passes in practice. It makes sense for the Pats to exhibit extreme caution with their veteran. Brady still benefited from just walking through the Thursday/Friday practices where specific offensive game plans and Red Zone plays were worked on — and many former NFL QBs argued that just walking through those plays to intellectualize them is all Brady really needs. Thanks, Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New England Patriots (312). Jacksonville (12-6) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 45-42 upset win at Pittsburgh last Sunday as a 7-point underdog. The Jaguars have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Jags scored a defensive touchdown in that game while enjoying a +2 net turnover margin — and they then played 7 straight games Over the Total after a game where they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin. Jacksonville generated 378 yards of offense in that game — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Jags have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Jacksonville offense is underrated — they ranked 5th in the NFL by scoring 26.1 PPG while ranking 6th by averaging 365.9 total YPG. After last week’s explosion, the Jags are averaging 28.1 PPG when playing on the road. The irony of this team is they are also a bit overrated when it comes to the strength of their defense. They allowed Ben Roethlisberger to pass for 462 yards en route to their 545 total yards of offense for the Steelers — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Jaguars finished 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yardage (286.1 total YPG) — but check out their strength of schedule. Jacksonville was able to pad their numbers with NFL’s least productive division in terms of offense in the AFC South against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston (they were fortunate to avoid QB DeShaun Watson both times). Throw in additional games against Cleveland, Baltimore in Week Three (that London game when their offense was ravaged with injuries and still finding itself), Cincinnati in Week Seven (when their offensive line was imploding) and then Buffalo in the Wild Card game. Then throw in their first game with the Steelers where they won by a 30-9 score with the benefit of two defensive touchdowns and five interceptions — and they allowed 65 combined points for a measly 6.5 PPG scoring average in those top ten defensive performances. There are six games — representing 33% of their results this year that should raise eyebrows for the wrong reasons: last week against the Steelers where they allowed 42 points and 545 yards of offense; allowing 44 points and 364 yards of offense against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers offense on December 24th; allowing 27 points and 344 yards of offense led by Blaine Gabbert; allowing 27 points in a loss to the LA Rams on October 15th; allowing 23 points and a whopping 471 yards in a loss to the Jets on October 1st; allowing 37 points and 390 yards of offense to Titans back on September 17th. Of their eighteen games including their two in the playoffs, Jacksonville has played six playoff teams (with the Bills and Steelers’ second-meeting being in the actual playoffs). They are 3-3 overall in those games — but they are allowing 22.2 PPG and 341.7 total YPG in those six contests. Of course, the Jaguars had the benefit of facing the likely two worst teams to make the playoffs in Tennessee (twice) and Buffalo in the Wildcard round. Take away those three games to just assess how this Jaguars defense performed against Pittsburgh (twice) and the LA Rams and the results are simply unimpressive: 26.0 PPG and 388.3 total YPG allowed. Where this Jags’ defense struggles when compares to those Super Bowl winning Ravens and Giants teams that defeated the Brady/Belichick combo is in run defense. Jacksonville ranked 21st in the NFL during the regular season by allowing 116.2 rushing YPG. This is where the Patriots will attack.

New England (14-3) has won four straight games with their 35-14 win over Tennessee last Sunday. The Patriots have won their last three games by at least three touchdowns — and they have then played 17 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after winning at least two games in a row by at least two touchdowns. New England has also played a decisive 48 of their last 69 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Patriots have also played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots stay at home for this game where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while generating 394.8 total YPG. Over their last three games, they are scoring 32.7 PPG. New England has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 7 Playoff games at home, the Patriots have played all 7 games Over the Total. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New England Patriots (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (307) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (308). New Orleans (12-5) proved their playoff experience mettle last week in a gritty 31-26 victory over Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite. QB Drew Brees led an offense that generated 410 yards against a very good Panthers defense despite having the football for only 26:11 minutes in that game. The Saints have not paid off betting tickets in two straight weeks — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. The conventional wisdom regarding this team stubbornly remains that they are not as good on the road as they are at home in the Superdome. While they were 4-4 away from home this season, they outscored their opponents by +7.7 PPG due to an improved defense that holds their home hosts to just 18.2 PPG along with only 326.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and this includes covering the point spread in eight of their last nine road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January. Additionally, they are a decisive 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. New Orleans is a very dangerous underdog in this situation — as it is, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, this Saints team will be playing with revenge on their mind after their 29-19 loss to the Vikings in the opening week of the season. This New Orleans team has improved on both sides of the ball since then — led mainly by the continued improvement of the rookies they drafted on both offense and defense. The Saints are much more balanced on offense now than they were in those salad days of early September — and they have will have seven different starters on the field today than they did in that opening game). Rookie running back Alvin Kamara ran the ball only 8 times for 18 yards with Adrian Peterson still on the team then taking away 6 carries while being limited in passing situations as a receiver and blocker. This New Orleans team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge. Additionally, keep in mind that this Saints team has defeated five teams that made the playoffs this season — as opposed to the Vikings who beat three teams that made the playoffs (with New Orleans being one of those teams back in Week One).

Minnesota (13-3) has won three straight games with their 23-10 victory over the Bears on December 31st. The Vikings held a 16-7 lead at halftime in that game which was the third straight week that they went to the locker rooms at halftime with a double-digit lead. Unfortunately for Mike Zimmer’s team, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after holding at least a touchdown lead in their last three games. QB Case Keenum has earned a lot of money for himself by playing great football this season — particularly since Week 10. But this will be his first playoff start in his career while Brees will be making his thirteenth playoff start which includes one where he led his team to a Super Bowl victory. Brees should have a big advantage late in this game — his moxie and experience should ensure that his team is in a position to win this game before the final seconds tick away. Lastly, because the Saints have averaged 11.2 and 7.0 Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last two games, that helps place the Vikings into a nasty “play-against” angle that has been 77% effective over the last five seasons. Minnesota held the Bears to just 4.6 Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last game — but home favorites who held their last opponent to 5.5 or less Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last game now facing a team that has generated at least a 7.0 YPP in each of their last two games have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of the last 35 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (307) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

SUBSCRIBERS, PLEASE NOTE: I have upgraded this play to a 20* play. Thanks, Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (307) and the Minnesota Vikings (308). New  Orleans (12-5) has won three of their last four games with their 31-26 win over Carolina last week as a 6.5-point favorite. The Saints have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. New Orleans generated 410 yards of offense against a tough Panthers defense — and they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Saints defense did surrender 413 yards of offense themselves with Cam Newton passing for 306 of those yards. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. That game with the Panthers finished above the 47.5 point total — and that makes it 9 of their last 11 games that the Saints have played a game Over the Total when the number was listed in the 42.5 to 49 point range. New Orleans has also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the playoffs. This is a rematch of the Week One meeting between these two teams which was won by the Vikings by a 29-19 score. The Saints have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss where their opponent scored at least 29 points.

Minnesota (13-3) has won three straight games entering the playoffs with their 23-10 win over the Bears two weeks ago. Many bettors may be scared off from taking the Over considering how good this Vikings defense is that has allowed only 17 combined points over their last three games. But Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. And while the Vikings have played three straight games Under the Total, they have then played 5 of 8 games Over the Total in that fourth game. QB Case Keenum has been outstanding since Week 10 this season: he boasts a 71% completion percentage while averaging 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with 15 touchdown passes to just four interceptions over that span. Minnesota scores 24.7 PPG at home and they should be able to reach that number this afternoon against this Saints’ defense that has allowed at least 400 total yards in two straight games. Lastly, the Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (307) and the Minnesota Vikings (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (306) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (305). Pittsburgh (13-3) has experienced an interesting week with Le’Veon Bell publicly speculating about sitting out next season given a potential contract dispute while other players already discussing a possible matchup with the Patriots next week. But I think that any chance of this team taking the Jaguars lightly in practice this week was eliminated when they got crushed by this Jacksonville team back on October 8th by a 30-9 score despite being a 7-point favorite at home. Ben Roethlisberger certainly remembers that game as he threw 5 interceptions in that defeat — so he has much to make up for in this rematch. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. Pittsburgh has a significant experience advantage in this contest. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games in the playoffs. The Steelers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games. On the plus side, Pittsburgh does look to get wide receiver Antonio Brown on the field — although it remains unclear how effective he can be with that calf.

Jacksonville (11-6) outlasted Buffalo last week in their 10-3 win over the Bills as an 8-point favorite. The Jaguars continued to be dominant on defense as they held the Bills to just 263 yards of offense while limiting them to only 3.65 Yards-Per-Play. Unfortunately for this Jacksonville team, such dominating defensive efforts has not translated into point spread success in the following week. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have not covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games not allowing their opponents to score more than 9 points in their last contest. Additionally, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. The offensive side of the football is the problem for this team. Any sense of optimism regarding the growth of QB Blake Bortles during the regular season has been dissipated after his lackluster effort last week. It is not just that he completed only 12 of 23 passes for 87 yards which made him only the 4th starting quarterback to fail to pass for least 100 yards in a playoff game since 2006, it is the evident lack of confidence he now has in throwing the football. He was wildly inaccurate in his misses — and the wind is only so much of an excuse. Too often against the Bills, Bortles abandoned passing the football and tried to move the ball with his legs. The Jaguars managed only 230 yards of offense. The Steelers will clearly stack the box to slow down Leonard Fournette and dare an insecure Bortles to beat them with his arm. That is an uncomfortable formula for this Jacksonville team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as well as in 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road. 25* AFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (306) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (305) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (306). Jacksonville (11-6) flexed their muscles on defense last week with their 10-3 win over Buffalo. The Jaguars held the Bills to just 263 yards of offense in that game. Jacksonville was 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed and total defense as they hold their opponents to just 15.9 PPG along with only 284.8 total YPG (after last week)— and this defense travels as they are holding their home hosts to only 15.4 PPG and 288.0 total YPG which is right in line with their seasonal numbers. The formula for success in this game is defense and running the football. Blake Bortles threw the ball only 23 times last week while often looking like he lacked confidence. He completed 12 of those balls for 87 yards making him just the fourth quarterback since 2006 to not pass for at least 100 yards in a playoff game. The Jaguars have to burn time off the clock and shorten the length of this game — and that helps our Under play. They failed to cover the 8-point spread last week against Buffalo — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Jacksonville has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, this team has played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 9 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Jaguars have played 8 of these games Under the Total.

Pittsburgh (13-3) enters this game coming off their 28-24 win over the Browns on December 31st. The Steelers have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Pittsburgh surrendered 272 passing yards in that game — and they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Steelers will be looking to avenge a 30-9 loss to the Jaguars back on October 8th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss by at least four touchdowns to their opponents. And remember with that game that two of the Jacksonville touchdowns came off tipped passes that were then intercepted and returned for a touchdown. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Steelers have also played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 6 games in the playoffs, the Under is 4-1-1. 10* NFL Jacksonville-Pittsburgh O/U CBS-TV Special with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (305) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). New England (13-3) has been a favorite laying at least 13 points at home in the AFC Playoffs three times in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era — and all were in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. They have covered the point spread twice — defeating the Texans by a 34-16 score as 16-point favorites last season as well as beating Denver by a 45-10 score as 14-point favorites back in 2012. Their lone point spread defeat in a similar Playoff situation was back on 2008 when they “only” beat Jacksonville by a 31-20 score when they were laying 13.5-points. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when laying more than 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 14 points. So while laying close to two touchdowns can be risky business in the NFL, backing Brady and Belchick in that situation has been profitable. New England has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against AFC opponents. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Playoffs including their last four games at home in the Playoffs.

Tennessee (10-7) rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit to secure eke out a 22-21 win at Kansas City as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. But this Titans team is 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 after a win by 3 points or less. And in their last 6 games after an upset win as an underdog, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in all 6 games. This is a very tough assignment for a team that has been outscored and outgained by their opponents this season. Additionally, not only has this Tennessee team failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 11 road games as an underdog in the 10.5 to 14 point range. The Titans will want to run the ball — but those plans will have to be abandoned if and when they fall behind. QB Marcus Mariota leads the NFL with 13 interceptions when he is not facing pressure — so things will probably get ugly. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the New England Patriots (304). New England (13-3) has been a favorite laying at least 13 points three times in the AFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The results were as follows: a 34-16 win over Houston last year with the Total at 44; a 45-10 win over Denver in 2012 with the Total set at 50; a 31-20 win over Jacksonville with the Total set at 51. While the Total was 2-0-1 for those three games, all three games saw at least 50 combined points scored with the Patriots averaging 36.7 PPG over that stretch. If New England approaches that number in this game, then this game should go safely Over the Total. The Patriots enter this game with momentum as they followed up their 37-16 win over Buffalo in Week 16 with a 26-6 victory over the Jets to close out their regular season. New England has then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by double-digits. The Patriots are averaging 29.4 PPG at home this season — and they have not only played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total at home but they have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, New England has played 6 straight playoff games at home Over the Total. And in their last 8 games in the AFC Divisional Playoffs, the Over is 7-0-1.

Tennessee (10-7) got their offense going in the second-half last week by scoring 19 points to stun Kansas City with their 22-21 upset victory as an 8.5-point underdog. The Titans have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to score more than a field goal in the first-half of their last game. Tennessee has also played 16 of their last 22 games after a victory by 3 points or less in their last game. The Titans have played two straight games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two straight games that finished below the number. Tennessee’s defense ranks 13th in the NFL by allowing 328.0 total YPG — but Pro Football Focus ranks their strength of schedule of opposing offenses to be last in the league. The Titans pass defense allowed 239.2 passing YPG this season which was 25th in the NFL. Considering that the Tennessee run defense ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 88.8 rushing YPG, it is the passing game from which the Patriots are likely to exploit — and that helps our Over play with more stoppages of the clock likely coming from incomplete passes. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 5 trips to Foxboro to play the Patriots, the game finished Over the Total 4 times. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the New England Patriots (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (301). Philadelphia (13-3) is the first top seed in the Divisional Round of the playoffs to be listed as a home underdog in the history of the NFL — and this will certainly add more fuel to their fire in this game. The Eagles are getting the points in this game in large part because they are facing a surging Falcons team that reached the Super Bowl last year. But QB Nick Foles has struggled in his last two starts taking over under center after the season-ending injury to Carson Wentz. The Eagles struggled on national television on Christmas night in their 19-10 win over the Raiders — and the offense was listless in Week 17 of the regular season when they could not score a point against the Cowboys in their 6-0 loss at home to Dallas a 4-point underdog (with that underdog status predicated on the team benching starters for much of that game). Don’t be surprised if this Philadelphia team comes out and plays their best game of the season since the Wentz injury. The Eagles defense remains loaded as they showed even with the offense struggling. Philadelphia ranks 4th in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 18.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the league by allowing just 306.5 total YPG. On their home field, the Eagles see those numbers drop of just 13.4 PPG along with 280.6 total YPG. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Foles does struggle when facing pressure — like most quarterbacks. But he has plenty of starting experience and has thrived as a starting quarterback when given time to pass. Look for the Eagles coaching staff to design a very good game plan to help put Foles in a position to win. This Falcons pass rush is solid but certainly not spectacular. They were 13th in the league by averaging 2.44 sacks per game. Over their last six games in this crucial stretch of the season, Atlanta has seen their sack total drop to just 2.0 sacks per game. Foles will get help from the Eagles rushing attack behind Jay Ajayi and LaGarrette Blount who helped the team finished 3rd in the NFL by averaging 132.2 rushing YPG. Philadelphia was 7-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +15.2 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

Atlanta (11-6) is finally getting tons of respect from bettors and NFL pundits after being dogged for most of the season as overachievers after making the Super Bowl last year but blowing that epic 28-3 halftime lead to the Patriots. But after the Falcons dominated the Los Angeles Rams last week on the road with their 26-13 victory, all those that hitched the ride on the advanced analytics that fell in love with that Rams team have to quickly find a new target for their affections. We loved the Falcons last week in that contrarian situation — and this is now a dangerous letdown spot on the road playing on grass in weather that looks to be under 50 degrees. Atlanta has failed to over the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Philadelphia. This will be the fourth game over Atlanta’s last five contests where they will be away from home — and that type of strenuous schedule continues to fatigue and costly mistakes. The Falcons’ defense has been playing their best football this season over the last few weeks — they have only allowed 23 combined points over the last two weeks after clinching their spot in the playoffs in the last game of the regular season with their 22-10 win over Carolina. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 14 points in at least two straight games. The Falcons are also precarious road favorites — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as the favorite. They are only outscoring their opponents on the road by +0.5 PPG due to an offense that scores just 22.1 PPG away from home. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games overall despite their Super Bowl run last year. 10* NFL Atlanta-Philadelphia NBC-TV Special with the Philadelphia Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (301) and the Philadelphia Eagles (302). Atlanta (11-6) has now played six straight games Under the Total given the steadily improved play of their defense combining with too many bettors not catching up to the reality that this Falcons offense is not as powerful this year as the one last year that led the NFL by scoring 33.8 PPG. This Total opened in the 43.5 range and has been bet down to 41 — and that is simply too low for how this game will likely play out. For starters, both these teams have amped up the number of offensive plays they are generating per game. Atlanta leads all teams left in the Playoffs by averaging 68.0 offensive plays per game over their last four contests — and that is well above their 62.5 offensive plays per game average for the regular season which was just 25th in the league. They now face an Eagles team that opponents passed the ball against in 61.4% of their offensive plays which was 3rd most this season. It stands to reason that the Falcons will emphasize the pass in this game considering that this Philadelphia team led the NFL by allowing a 79.2 rushing YPG. Atlanta behind Matt Ryan has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the Playoffs. The Over is also 11-4-2 in the Falcons’ last 17 games in the month of January. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Falcons come off their 26-13 upset win in Los Angeles as a 6.5-point underdog against the Rams last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after upset win as a road underdog.

Philadelphia (13-3) ran the 3rd most plays this season averaging 67.1 offensive plays per game this season — and that number dropped only slightly to 66.1 offensive plays per game over their last four contests which encompasses the time where Nick Foles became the starting quarterback for the injured Carson Wentz. The Eagles hale the field again after losing their last game of the regular season by a 6-0 score at home to the Cowboys as a 4-point underdog. Philadelphia has then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss at home. The Eagles have also played a decisive 47 of their last 69 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes playing fifteen of their last twenty games Over the Total after a defeat. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. And they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Eagles ran the ball only 18 times in that game for 70 yards with their number one seed in the NFC already secured. The Eagles will surely attempt to get their ground game going support Foles under center — and they have seen he over go 40-15-1 in their last 56 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (301) and the Philadelphia Eagles (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (151) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (152) in the National Championship Game. Georgia (13-1) earned one of the biggest victories in their school’s program history with their 54-48 epic overtime victory over Oklahoma last Monday. But the fact that this history does not include championship game experience may play a role in how this showdown plays out. The Bulldogs have an inferiority complex with the Crimson Tide which will likely rear its ugly head in this game. Most of the teams in the SEC are insecure relative to the Alabama football program. Georgia fired Mark Richt despite him being one of their most successful coaches in their history because he was not leading them into enough championship games — as if the program was rife with those opportunities before they arrived. This is a football culture that still considers the Hershel Walker era as a recent event. The school tried to model themselves off the Crimson Tide program when they replaced Richt with Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. While Smart has done a good job with the program, he lacks the pedigree and certainly the experience to out-coach his mentor in Nick Saban. Throw in the lack of playoff experience this roster has (as compared to that Clemson team that faced Alabama for the third straight time in the last three years in the playoffs) along with a true freshman at quarterback in Jake Fromm — and the results look like a team happy to be in this National Championship Game but also with likely significant doubts that they can pull off this upset. The Bulldogs showed some weaknesses in their win over the Sooners. Oklahoma generated a whopping 531 yards against what had been considered a stout Georgia defense. 289 of those yards were in the air — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Georgia has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points while their opponent also scored at least 30 points. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games.

Alabama (12-1) has played in the College Football Playoffs in four straight years — and this will be the third straight postseason where they play to win the National Championship. After avenging their 35-31 loss to Clemson in last year’s Championship Game on Monday, this team with eleven returning starters from that team will not be satisfied with just that victory. This is a team that is groomed to win championships each and every season under Saban — and this group is hungry. And while the Bulldogs are talented, this Crimson Tide team has better players. They dominated the Tigers in their 24-6 victory. They held the Clemson offense to just 188 total yards in that game at a paltry 2.69 Yards-Per-Play mark — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 3.25 YPP in their last game. Alabama has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Crimson Tide has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field. Alabama has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a field turf. And in their last 11 games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points, the Crimson Tide has covered the point spread 7 times. 25* CFB Alabama-Georgia A-List Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (151) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (152) in the National Championship Game. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (151) and the Georgia Bulldogs (152). Alabama (12-1) flexed their muscles on defense last Monday by holding Clemson to just 188 yards of offense en route to their 24-6 win over the Tigers. Considering that the Crimson Tide generated just 261 yards of offense against the Clemson defense, it might appear that the Under is the preferred totals play when they face off against another Top-Ten defense in this Alabama team. But each game has its own internal narrative. The third contest in the Crimson Tide-Tigers trilogy played out as a defensive battle. Don’t be surprised if this Alabama-Georgia showdown between two teams of similar compositions ends up seeing much more offense — and with a Total set in just the mid-40s. The Crimson Tide have seen the Over go 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their lsat game. And while Alabama has played three straight games that finished Under the Total, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games that finished Under the Total. Remember that while this Crimson Tide team has the nation’s top scoring defense (11.1 PPG) and total defense (252.4 YPG), they are no slouches on offense either. Alabama was 12th in the nation by scoring 37.9 PPG while averaging 449.7 total YPG (27th in the FBS). And remember that these offensive numbers are a little lower than they could be since their outstanding defense helped them earn comfortable leads without putting up Oklahoma-like numbers. An elite defense is nothing new for a Nick Saban-coached team. Yet they have played 10 of their last 14 Bowl games Over the Total — and this includes playing five of their last six games in the month of January Over the Total.

Georgia (13-1) finished Top-Five in scoring defense (15.7 PPG) while finishing 6th in total defense (289.5 YPG). But this Bulldogs team scored 36.3 PPG while averaging 440.3 total YPG which ranked 17th and 31st in the FBS respectively. As Georgia proved against the Sooners on Monday, they can crank up their offense into high gear to winning a scoring fest if they need to in order to win. In their 54-48 win in overtime against Oklahoma, they generated 527 yards of offense. The Bulldogs have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the Georgia defense had trouble slowing down the Sooners offense as they gave up 531 yards along with 6.55 Yards-Per-Play. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Additionally, while Georgia has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 5 of the last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow SEC opponents. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 5 times. 25* CFB Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (151) and the Georgia Bulldogs (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (108). Carolina (11-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in their 22-10 loss in Atlanta as a 5-point underdog. The Panthers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, while Carolina surrendered 311 passing yards to Matt Ryan in that game, they are then 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Panthers stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January. This Panthers team lost both their encounters with the Saints this season — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games when playing with double-revenge. Carolina lost to this team by a 31-21 score back on December 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 50 games when looking to avenge a loss where their opponent scored at least 28 points.

New Orleans (11-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-24 loss at Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite. This team typically does not respond to setbacks like that as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as an upset loss as a road favorite. The Saints surrendered 455 yards in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This New Orleans defense showed marked improvement this season — but this unit has been plagued with injuries as of late with the loss of starting Sam linebacker A.J. Klein and their Jack of All Trades strong safety Kenny Vaccaro being the biggest blows. The Saints also endured a -2 net turnover margin against the Buccaneers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 43 home games after suffering a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. The Trilogy of this NFC South battle between two teams with a head coach and quarterback combination that has been in the Super Bowl shapes up to be a very close game — giving value to the underdog with the points who can pull off the upset. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the New Orleans Saints (108). Carolina (11-5) will be facing this Saints’ offense for the third time this season — and that should give an advantage to their defense given this familiarity. The Panthers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals — and this includes playing four of their last five games Under the Total against divisional rivals. Carolina looks to bounce-back from their 22-10 loss in Atlanta last week with that final score falling far below that 44.5 point total. The Panthers offense managed to generate just 248 yards of offense in that game. Carolina also allowed 371 yards in that contest — and the Under is then 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They only generate 308.2 YPG when playing on the road this season. But this stout Carolina defense only allows the home team to score 19.6 PPG while limiting them to just 303.2 total YPG.

New Orleans (11-5) looks to bounce-back from their 31-24 upset loss in Tampa Bay despite being a 6-point favorite in that game. The Saints have then played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss as a road favorite. New Orleans has also played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Saints defense allowed the Bucs to generate 455 yards of offense in that loss. But now New Orleans returns home where they held the Panthers to just 279 yards of offense back on December 3rd in their 31-21 victory. That does not seem to be a fluke when considering that the Saints only allowed 288 total yards in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 24th in their 34-13 victory. Those numbers average out to just 17 PPG along with 283.5 total YPG for Carolina in their two games against New Orleans this season — so the Saints defense looks poised to have a much better day. Additionally, while New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 23 of their last 38 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the New Orleans Saints (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (105) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (106). Buffalo (9-7) did their part to reach the AFC Playoffs last week with their 22-16 win in Miami as a 2.5-point favorite. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Buffalo’s defense did surrender 356 yards in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. This Bills’ team has been vulnerable on defense when playing away from home. They allowed 24.6 PPG while surrendering 349.6 total YPG in their eight road games this season. Moving forward, Buffalo has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

Jacksonville (10-6) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss at Tennessee. The Jaguars have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Jaguars defense did limit the Titans to just 229 yards of offense — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Now Jacksonville returns home where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and this includes playing four straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars have played 5 of these games Over the Total. Lastly, these two teams have played 5 straight games Over the Total in their last 5 meetings. 10* NFL Buffalo-Jacksonville O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (105) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Jacksonville (10-6) had nothing at stake last week but still played their starters in what ended up being a 15-10 loss in Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. That setback should eliminate any chance of this team being overconfident in this game despite being a favorite but more than a touchdown. As it is, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. And while the offense managed only 232 yards of offense, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The Jaguars managed only 83 rushing yards in that game with Leonard Fournette handily a relatively light load by rushing the ball only 19 times for 69 yards. The good news for Jacksonville is that Fournette should be fresh for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not rushing for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now the Jags return home where they outscore their opponents by +7.5 net PPG. The Jacksonville defense gets most of the attention — and they have been outstanding at home by holding their opponents to just 18.4 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG. But the Jaguars offense has been strong at home where they are scoring 25.9 PPG while averaging 402.7 total YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

Buffalo (9-7) is a surprise entry into the postseason as they needed a late and improbable Cincinnati comeback victory over Baltimore to make into the playoffs after they defeated the Dolphins in Miami by a 22-16 score as a 2.5-point favorite. But their best offensive player LeSean McCoy suffered an ankle injury in that game which makes him a game time decision for this contest. Even if he plays, McCoy is not likely to be close to 100% — and that is very tough blow for this offense of which he accounts for 33% of its production. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They were outscored this season by -3.5 net PPG this season while also being outgained by -52.6 net YPG. They were just 3-5 on the road where those disparities were even worse. Buffalo was outscored by -7.0 PPG on the road this year while being outgained by -64.1 net YPG. Lastly, this will be the Bills third straight game away from home which may contribute to their fatigue. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year on the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (103) and the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this game having played five straight games that finished Under the Total after their 22-10 win over Carolina with that Total closing around 44.5. For some, that might be enough to trigger a contrarian Over bet — and I considered this angle for a lengthy time. But the damning case against that argument is that the Falcons specifically have played 7 straight games Under the Total after playing at least five straight Unders before that game. Atlanta plays underrated defense — they rank 9th in the NFL by allowing 318.4 total YPG. Over their last three games, they are limiting their opponents to just 312.0 total YPG after limiting the Panthers last week to just 248 yards of offense. The Falcons have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they generated 371 yards of offense over Carolina, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Atlanta will look to run the ball to keep the Rams offense off the field and exploit this vulnerability in the Los Angeles defense as they are allowing 122.3 rushing YPG which is 28th in the league. The Falcons have not scored more than 24 points in five straight games — so this a ball-control defensive-orientated team is what this team is become this season. They controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes last week against the Panthers in that must-win game. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 playoff games on the road, the Under is 3-1-1.

Los Angeles (11-5) rested their starters last week in a 34-13 loss to San Francisco. Yet their effort on defense had to be a disappointment for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips after seeing his defense surrender 463 yards to the 49ers. The Rams have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Additionally, not only have the Rams played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 21 points. On their home field, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 11 home games as the favorite, the Rams have played 7 of these games Under the Total. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (103) and the Los Angeles Rams (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this Wildcard Playoff game playing as good of football as they have played all season after their 22-10 win at home over Carolina that clinched their spot in the playoffs. The Falcons have won three of their last four games to earn the opportunity to defend their NFC Championship. Playoff experience is a big advantage this team has when facing the Rams. This Atlanta team is underrated on the defensive side of the football. They held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG while limiting them to only 318.4 total YPG. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta did generate 371 yards against the Panthers defense — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Falcons have covered the point spread 13 times.

Los Angeles (11-5) rested their starters last week in their 34-13 loss to San Francisco. I am comfortable ignoring the results of that game. However, that was the Rams’ fourth loss at home this season where they are struggling to create a fervent local group of supporters. This has to be one of the weakest home field advantages that a playoff team has ever had when considering this franchise is relatively new again in Los Angeles. The Rams are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home — and this includes have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Looking deeper at the numbers, while the Rams outscored their opponents by +9.3 net PPG, they only outgained these opponents by +21.6 net YPG. The Los Angeles’ run defense ranks only 28th in the NFL by allowing 122.3 rushing YPG — and they allowing opposing rushers to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. While the Falcons will be without guard Andy Levier, they will have both their running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman healthy for this game after both backs have been dealing with injuries in the closing weeks of the season. Additionally, I think there is a significant edge for the Falcons with their head coach Dan Quinn and their quarterback Matt Ryan as compared to the Rams’ Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff. While McVay is being hailed as an offensive guru, he has never coached a playoff game while coming from an organization in Washington that is not a perennial playoff team. For my tastes, his head is buried in his iPad too often and I worry this will result in game management issues. When it comes to Goff, I am not convinced he has progressed beyond being a product of the McVay system. In clutch situations, Goff has not delivered this season — and I have been watching closely with their home losses to Philadelphia and Seattle being two examples of this. Furthermore, while this Rams team has an outstanding Special Teams, they will really miss one of the best place kickers in the league with Greg Zuerlein going on Injured Reserve to a few weeks ago. All these intangibles provide context for a football team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January — and this franchise has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. The Rams may win this game — but I expect a very close contest with this Falcons team that will be a tough “out” with their experience of playing in the Super Bowl last season. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

SUBSCRIBERS, PLEASE NOTE: I have upgraded this Kansas City play to a 20* selection (from a 10* play initially). Thanks, Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (101). Kansas City (10-6) has won four straight gams after their 27-24 upset win at Denver as a 3-point underdog. That was a great result for the Chiefs as they won the game to maintain their momentum going into the playoffs but did so while resting their key starters. Look for KC to play very well in this game as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have been very good at home where they are 6-2 this season with an average winning margin of +7.2 PPG. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home field.

Tennessee (9-7) clinched a spot in the playoffs with their 15-10 win over Jacksonville last Sunday. The Titans only managed 232 yards of offense in that game but benefited from two Blake Bortles interceptions and a +3 net turnover margin to win that game. Tennessee did limit the Jaguars to just 229 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. This Titans team is being outscored by -1.3 net PPG while being outgained by -14.0 net YPG. On the road, it is even worse as Tennessee is being outscored by -6.4 net PPG while being outgained by -41.2 net YPG. The problem is Marcus Mariota and this Titans offense as they score just 17.5 PPG while averaging a mere 270.7 total YPG when on the road. Not surprisingly, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in ten of their last thirteen road games against teams with a winning record at home. 20* NFL Tennessee-Kansas City ESPN Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Kansas City (10-6) has won four straight games with their 27-24 win at Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. The Chiefs have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now this team returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 16.9 PPG. This Kansas City team scores 24.1 PPG on their home field — and that is 1.8 PPG lower than their 25.9 PPG seasonal average. They also only generate 343.1 total YPG which is over 30 YPG lower than their 375.4 total YPG mark. The Chiefs have played a decisive 44 of their last 63 games Under the Total on their home field. They also have played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 playoff games at home, Kansas City has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

Tennessee (9-7) clinched a spot in the AFC Playoffs last Sunday with their 15-10 victory over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. The Titans eked out that game despite generating only 232 yards of offense. A +3 net turnover margin helped the Titans overcome their limited offensive effort in that game. Tennessee scores only 20.9 PPG while averaging just 314.0 total YPG — and those numbers drop to scoring just 17.5 PPG while averaging a mere 270.7 total YPG when on the road. The Titans defense did do a fine job of stopping the Jaguars offense last week as they managed only 229 yards of offense. In fact, the lone Jacksonville touchdown came from a fumble recovery returned for a 67-yards touchdown. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Titans formula for success in this game will be running the football to burn time off the clock which keeps the Chiefs’ offense off the field — and that is a great formula for the Under. Lastly, in their last 11 games played in the month of January, Tennessee has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Sugar Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide (273) and the Clemson Tigers (274). Clemson (12-1) has won six straight games after defeating Miami (FL) in the ACC Championship Game by a 38-3 score back on December 2nd. The Tigers rushed for only 77 yards in that game — but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. Clemson ranks 35.4 PPG this season which was 20th in the FBS — and they did not experience any drop-off when playing away from home where they scored 35.3 PPG. Of course, the Tigers have played the Crimson Tide for the National Championship in each of the last two seasons with the final score seeing 66 and 85 combined points. Despite the Total being a few points lower than the 51 or so points assigned as the Total for those two games, I see little reason why this Semifinals showdown will not be another shootout. Certainly both coaches will assume that scoring 30 points will be a prerequisite for winning this game. Clemson has played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing in the month of January. And in their last 6 games played on speedy field turf, the Tigers have played 5 of these games Over the Total.

10* CFB play with the Over. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (273) in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama (11-1) saw their undefeated season spoiled in the Iron Bowl back on November 25th in a 26-14 upset loss at Auburn as a 5-point favorite. Look for the Crimson Tide to bounce-back with a very strong effort. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Crimson Tide has also covered the point spread in 42 of their last 63 road games after a straight-up loss. And in their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points, Alabama has covered the point spread 5 times. Nick Saban's team will be razor sharp as they look to bounce-back from that loss while also getting the opportunity to avenge their Championship Game loss to Clemson last season. Injuries at linebacker have slowed Alabama over the last month of the regular season -- which is one of the reasons why we went against them against Mississippi State and Auburn. But the Crimson Tide enters this game as healthy as they have been all season. Getting those linebackers back improves a stout defense that was already tops in the nation by allowing only 11.5 PPG. The Alabama offense also ranked 9th in the nation by scoring 39.1 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 4 games playing on field turf, the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread all 4 times.

Clemson (12-1) has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on field turf. The Tigers are riding high having won six straight games since their loss at Syracuse after winning the ACC Championship Game by a 38-3 score over Miami (FL). But this Clemson team may be primed for a big letdown as they look to defend their National Championship now as the hunted team. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning at least six straight games. Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games including failing to cover the point spread in three straight games in that situation. The Tigers have not allowed more than 14 points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 17 points in four straight games and this includes failing to cover their last three games after not giving up more than 14 points in three straight. Lastly, Clemson has blowout their last three opponents by at least 24 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three straight games by at least three touchdowns. 25* CFB Playoff Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (273) in the Sugar Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (271) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (272) in the Rose Bowl. Oklahoma (12-1) clinched their spot in the College Football Playoff with their 41-17 win over TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. The high-powered Sooners offense totaled 461 yards of offense against the Horned Frogs in that rematch — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. I am skeptical that the passing attack of this Oklahoma team will work against the speed of the Bulldogs defense. There is a reason why these video game offenses rarely work on a consistent basis in the NFL. It is telling that the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the SEC. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, I think this might be the competitive situation where the inexperience of first-year head coach Lincoln Riley begins to rear its ugly head. Remember, he was tapped as the Oklahoma head coach in the summer after Bob Stoops unexpectedly stepped down after eighteen years with the program. Preparing for the Bowl Playoffs is something even seasoned veterans learn from. Lastly for this Sooners team, their defense is only mediocre. Oklahoma allowed opponents to average 240.6 passing YPG which was 88th in the FBS. Overall, Oklahoma allowed 384.8 total YPG which was 59th in the nation and right smack in the middle of all FBS teams.

Georgia (12-1) has won three straight games since their loss at Auburn — culminating with their revenge win over the Tigers in the SEC Championship Game in their 28-7 win at Auburn. The Bulldogs have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 20 points. Georgia has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. The Bulldogs averaged 6.68 Yards-Per-Play against Auburn — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP. Moving forward, Georgia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when the favorite on a neutral field. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread 4 of their last 5 Bowl games. And in their last 5 games against teams outside the SEC, Georgia has covered the point spread 4 times. 25* CFB Georgia-Oklahoma Rose Bowl Special Feature with the Georgia Bulldogs (271) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Rose Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (271) and the Oklahoma Sooners (272). Georgia (12-1) reached the College Football Playoffs with their 28-7 win over Auburn in the SEC Championship Game as a 2-point favorite. The Bulldogs have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Georgia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing 20 points or less in their last game. The Bulldogs defense dominated this game as they held Auburn to just 259 yards of offense. Georgia has then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs allowed only 145 passing yards in that game as well — and they have then played a decisive 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, Georgia has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC. And in their last 8 games played on a neutral field, the Bulldogs have played 6 of these games Under the Total.

Oklahoma (12-1) has won eight games in a row with their 41-17 win over TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners have not committed a turnover in four straight games — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not committing a turnover in their last game. It may be tempting to expect the Over given Oklahoma’s high-powered offense that has scored at least 38 points in four straight games. But the Sooners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in three straight games. Additionally, Oklahoma has generated at least 461 yards in all their games this season — and they have then played 11 of the last 16 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in five straight contests. The Sooners have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams from the SEC. Furthermore, Oklahoma has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field including five of their last six games Under the Total in Bowl games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 93-34 combined angle for this situation. 10* CFB Georgia-Oklahoma O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the Rose Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (271) and the Oklahoma Sooners (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Citrus Bowl between the LSU Tigers (269) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (270). LSU (9-3) has won three straight games with their 45-21 win over Texas A&M to close out their regular season. The Tigers have then seen the Under go 9-4-2 in their last 15 games after a straight-up win. The Under is also 6-1-2 in LSU’s last 9 games after a victory by at least 20 points. And in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points, the Under is 4-0-2. Additionally, LSU has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game at home where they won by at least 17 points. They generated a whopping 601 total yards against the Aggies while averaging 6.90 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 10 straight games Under the Total after a game where they averaged at least 6.75 YPP. LSU averaged just 21.8 PPG in their six games away from home. But their defense travels as they held the six teams they faced away from home to just 299.5 total YPG which was even lower than the 311.7 total YPG mark which was 11th best in the nation. The Under is 13-6-1 in the Tigers’ last 20 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the SEC, the Under is 5-2-1.

10* CFB play with the Under. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (270) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (269) in the Citrus Bowl. Notre Dame (9-3) limped into this Bowl game having lost two of their last three games after their 38-20 upset loss at Stanford as a 3-point favorite back on November 25th. The Fighting Irish should be very motivated to make a strong showing for themselves in this contest. Notre Dame has lost nine straight Bowl games — so this group has the opportunity to distinguish themselves. This is also the first time all season that the Irish are the underdogs. The Fighting Irish are led by the nation’s best offensive line that was awarded the Joe Moore Award for this distinction in December — so they should be able to push back against the Tigers’ defensive line. The Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. Taking better care of the football will play a big role as they suffered a -3 net turnover margin agains the Cardinal. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. And in their last 23 games played on field turf, the Irish have covered the point spread 14 times.

LSU (9-3) has won three straight games with their 45-21 win over Texas A&M to close out their regular season. With head coach Ed Orgeron whispering about perhaps shaking up his coaching staff, this might not be the most cohesive and focused football program this postseason. They have been fortunate regarding turnovers in their winning streak as they have won the turnover margin in each of their last three games. The Tigers have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after enjoying at least a +1 net turnover margin in three straight games. LSU were the favorites in all three of those games. Not only have the Tigers then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in three straight games overall. Their star linebacker Arden Key is out for this game with a knee injury while running back Derrius Guice is still not 100% with his injuries that slowed him down in the second-half of the season. Lastly, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (270) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (269) in the Citrus Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (268) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (267) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Central Florida (12-0) might be galvanized to pull the big upset in this game with the knowledge that three of the last four Group of Five football teams earning their one reserved spot in a New Year’s Six Bowl game has won their game. But Western Michigan was undefeated last year as well — and they lost to Wisconsin. This Knights team looks overmatched. While they led the nation by scoring 49.4 PPG, they enjoyed playing weak defenses up and down their schedule. The best defense Central Florida probably faced was against a middling South Florida defensive unit. To compound matters, the Knights ranked 110th in the FBS by allowing 262.8 passing YPG. Furthermore, while their departed head coach Scott Frost is still coaching them for this game, his attentions are certainly divided. Frost has been doing double-duty between preparing his former team for this Bowl game while also traveling to Lincoln to work on recruiting and lay the foundation for his new gig as the head coach at Nebraska. Central Florida is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the SEC. They come off winning the American Athletic Conference Championship Game in a video game result where they generated 726 yards of offense in a 62-55 win in overtime over Memphis. But Central Florida surrendered an incredible 753 yards in that victory including 282 yards on the ground. The Knights have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game.

Auburn (10-3) looks to rebound from their 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as a 5-point underdog. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Tigers are also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Auburn has already spoiled two undefeated seasons this year in their first meeting against Georgia as well as against Alabama in the Iron Bowl. This battle tested team also played Clemson this year — making them the only team in the country to have played three of the four teams in the College Playoff (and beating two of them). They should be motivated to put a thumping on this Central Florida team that has been talking trash entering this game. The recruiting differences between these two programs is vast. Auburn is likely to expose the Knights this afternoon. 10* CFB Central Florida-Auburn ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (268) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (267) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (265) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (266) in the Outback Bowl. Michigan (8-4) has lost two straight games entering this Bowl game after their 31-20 loss to Ohio State as a 12.5-point underdog to end their regular season. The Wolverines are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The team was mired with injuries at quarterback which required them to play senior John O’Korn who simply did not have the ability to successfully check off his primary receiver — and defenses continually burned him on that. Redshirt freshman Brandon Peters showed promise when he was given the opportunity to play — but he suffered a concussion in the Wisconsin game that kept him out in those final two losses. Peters is back for this game which has helped the Wolverines to be favorites laying more than a touchdown — but Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as the favorite. The Wolverines are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 14 games played on grass as will be the case for this contest, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread 10 times.

South Carolina (8-4) looks to bounce-back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson to close out their regular season back on November 25th. The Gamecocks are not being given much respect — the fact that they have a negative net yardage differential is certainly not helping matters. But behind sophomore QB Jake Bentley, this is a group dominated by sophomores and juniors who are anxious to take their team to the next level next season in the third year under head coach Will Muschamp. South Carolina generated just 207 yards of offense against the Tigers — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards in their last game. The Gamecocks are also 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. South Carolina did pull off four upset wins this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and this includes covering the point spread in 3 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Lastly, the Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing on a neutral field. 10* CFB South Carolina-Michigan ESPN2 Special with the South Carolina Gamecocks (265) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (266) in the Outback Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Please note: I am upgrading this Over play to a 20* play. Thanks, Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Outback Bowl between the South Carolina Gamecocks (265) and the Michigan Wolverines (266). South Carolina (8-4) looks to bounce-back from a 34-10 loss to Clemson back on November 25th to close out their regular season. The Gamecocks have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. South Carolina has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Gamecocks managed only 207 yards of offense against the thought Tigers defense — but the Over is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards in their last game. And in their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points, South Carolina has played 7 of these games Over the Total.

Michigan (8-4) has lost two straight games with their 31-20 loss to Ohio State as a 12.5-point underdog back on November 25th. The Wolverines have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Michigan has also seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a point spread setback. The team should certainly benefit from the return of redshirt freshman quarterback Brandon Peters. The first Jim Harbaugh recruit under center for the team was effective when taking over late in the season. He completed 37 of 64 passes for 486 yards and four TD passes before suffering a concussion in the Wisconsin game that kept him out of that rivalry game with the Buckeyes. Moving forward, the Over is 15-6-1 in Michigan’s last 22 games against teams with a winning record. The Over is also 6-1-1 in the Wolverines’ last 8 games against teams outside the Big Ten. Additionally, the Wolverines have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 10 Bowl games, Michigan has played 8 of these games Over the Total. Together, these team trends produce our specific 81-20-4 combined angle for this situation. 20* CFB New Year’s Day Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the Outback Bowl between the South Carolina Gamecocks (265) and the Michigan Wolverines (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (308) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (307). Atlanta (9-6) looks to bounce-back from their 23-13 loss in New Orleans last Sunday that snapped a two-game winning streak. The Falcons need a win here to clinch a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they managed only 67 rushing yards last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to rush for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Falcons will also be playing with revenge on their minds from a 20-17 loss in Carolina back on November 5th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when looking to avenge a loss by field goal or less in their last game against their opponent.

Carolina (11-4) will be watching the scoreboard during this game as confirmed by head coach Ron Rivera this week. It is very possible that Rivera will bench his starters if he sees that New Orleans looks destined to defeat the Buccaneers in a game that will be occurring at the same time. The Panthers are relegated to the 5-seed as the top Wild Card team if they cannot surpass the Saints to win the NFC South. The Saints are nearly a touchdown favorite on the road against a Tampa Bay team that has lost five straight games — and I do not like the Bucs enough to even take the points this afternoon. So I will not be surprised if the Panthers eventually throw in the towel in this game. As it is, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against NFC South opponents. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played in a dome. Carolina enters this game coming off their 22-19 win over the Buccaneers last week. The Panthers defense did show some vulnerabilities after allowing 392 yards of offense — and they are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been winning the turnover battle as of late — they have enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in three straight games. But the Panthers have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after having a +2 net turnover margin in two straight games. 25* NFL Sunday Afternoon Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (308) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) plus the points versus Tennessee Titans (312). Jacksonville (10-5) looks to rebound from their 44-33 upset loss at San Francisco last week despite being a 4-point favorite. The Jaguars have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. Head coach Doug Marrone has indicated his team will play-to-win this game without resting their starters despite their slot in the playoffs locked-in. They need to get their defense in order after that rare bad game — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Jacksonville will be also playing with revenge on their minds after losing to the Titans back on September 17th by a 37-16 score. The Jaguars have covered then point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC South opponents. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 5 times.

Tennessee (8-7) has lost three straight games with their 27-23 loss to the Rams at home last week. The Titans are meeting point spread expectations despite this slide as they have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as four of their last five contest. This Tennessee team needs to win this game to clinch a spot in the playoffs — but this group has been laying eggs for weeks so I do not expect them to step it up now. Their pass defense has been shredded there last two weeks by allowing 680 passing yards along with five TD passes. They surrendered 286 passing yards last week to the Rams — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They will face a hot Blake Bortles (!) who has thrown for almost 1300 passing yards over the last four weeks while tossing nine TD passes. Tennessee has not performed well relative to point expectations at home as they are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 28 games in the month of December, the Titans are 7-19-2 ATS. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) plus the points versus Tennessee Titans (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (331) and the Los Angeles Rams (332). Los Angeles (11-4) will be resting a few key players — including quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley — in this game with their slot in the NFC Playoffs as either the third or fourth seed secured. That means that the QB for this game will be Sean Mannion while the bell cow running back will be Malcolm Brown. While those names are not encouraging, the Rams defense should still be in good shape under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. In fact, Phillips will want to see many adjustments made from the 41-39 game that the Rams won in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 21st. Los Angeles enters this game coming off their 27-23 win at Tennessee last week as a 5.5-point favorite. The Rams have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning a game on the road where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Los Angeles has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Los Angeles has also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Rams have played 6 of these games Under the Total.

San Francisco (5-10) has won four straight games with their 44-33 upset win over Jacksonville as a 4-point underdog. The Jimmy Garoppolo era is off to a fine start with the QB still undefeated as a starter after tearing up a very good Jaguars defense by completing 21 of 30 passes for 242 yards. While some bettors may expect another big day from the 49ers’ offense, I look for the San Fran defense to play much better this week as they look to build for next season. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. And in their last 5 games against fellow NFC West rivals, the 49ers have played 4 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (331) and the Los Angeles Rams (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (320) plus the points versus the Washington Redskins (319). New York (2-13) has lost five straight games after their 23-0 shutout loss in Arizona last week. Many bettors were sky-high on the Giants in that game after their very good showing the previous week in a 34-29 loss at home to the Eagles. While we had the Cardinals in that game, look for the Giants to play better this week as they look to redeem themselves from being shutout last week as a 3-point underdog. New York also looks to avenge a 20-10 loss in Washington back on November 23rd. The Giants have not defeated a divisional rival this season — so a good effort this afternoon goes a long way to get the terrible taste in their mouth from this lost season. Eli Manning will likely play every snap with the team likely to look to resign him under new general manager Dave Gettleman. New York is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as the underdog. And while they have failed to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to top 75 rushing yards in two straight games. And in their last 13 games played in Week 17 of the regular season, the Giants have covered the point spread 9 times.

Washington (7-8) has won two straight games with their 27-11 win over Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. But the Skins have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. This franchise may be caught looking forward with the decision to retain head coach Jay Gruden with him and his staff being offered contract extensions. Their next decision regards what to do with QB Kirk Cousins. However, in the meantime, the Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against NFC East opponents. 10* NFL  Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (320) plus the points versus the Washington Redskins (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (315) and the Indianapolis Colts (316). Houston (4-11) has lost five straight games after their 34-6 loss to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. The Texans managed only 227 yards of offense behind quarterbacks T.J. Yates and Taylor Heinicke — and the team will be without their All-World wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. As it is, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. And in their last 10 games after failing to score at least 15 points, the Texans have played 8 of these games Under the Total. The team had to resign QB Josh Johnson off the streets this week with both their quarterbacks going through the concussion protocol this week. Yates has been cleared to start — but he completed just 19 of 47 passes for 211 yards and a QB Rating of 50.9 in his Houston has not scored a point in the first-half in their last two games — and they have then played 21 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first-half in two straight games. 

Indianapolis (3-12) has lost six straight games with their 23-16 loss in Baltimore last week in a game where they managed only 296 yards of offense. The Colts have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Indianapolis has also played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the month of December. Now Indy returns home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home against teams with a losing record on the road. With rumors that the franchise will not be retaining head coach Chuck Pagano, the team may mail in their effort this afternoon. As it is, the Colts have played 4 straight games Under the Total against AFC South rivals. Lastly, these two teams have played 8 straight games Under the Total when facing off in Indianapolis. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (315) and the Indianapolis Colts (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (264) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (263) in the Orange Bowl. Miami (FL) (10-2) looks to erase their two-game losing streak and end their season on a positive note after their ugly 38-3 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game back on December 2nd. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Miami held the Tigers to just 77 rushing yards in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. The Hurricanes’ defense is legit — they ranked 17th in the nation by allowing only 19.9 PPG. The offense was ravaged with injuries to three key skill position players which severely limited them in the Clemson game. But the month of bowl practices should have improved the running back and wide receiver positions for junior QB Malik Rosier. Miami is, of course, the host team of the Orange Bowl — and they are a perfect 7-0 with an average winning margin of +18.0 PPG. The Hurricanes outgain their visitors by +114.5 net YPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games as the underdog. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside the ACC.

Wisconsin (12-1) looks to bounce-back from their deflating 27-21 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship that not only ruined their conference title hopes but also crushed any National Championship dreams that the team might have harbored. But, frankly, this has always been an overrated team that was propped up by a soft schedule. The Badgers’ non-conference slate consisted of BYU, Florida Atlantic and Utah State — none of which even represent a Power Five Conference. Wisconsin then plays in the weaker West Division of the Big Ten. So when looking at their season statistics, remember that the Badgers surrendered 449 yards of offense to the Buckeyes while managing to generate just 298 yards themselves. The final score made that game appear closer than it really was — and Wisconsin benefited from a 9-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown to stay competitive. Sophomore quarterback Alex Hornbook is way too loose with the football. He threw 15 interceptions this season which makes him playing in a true road game in the Orange Bowl against the Turnover Chain wearing Hurricanes who were second in the nation with a +1.25 net turnover margin per game a downright scary proposition. The Badgers managed only 62 rushing yards in their 32 rushing attempts against Ohio State — and that helps place them into a historical “play-against” angle that has been 73% effective since 1992. Wisconsin holds their opponents to just 92.6 rushing YPG — and favorites in the 3.5 to 10 point range who did not rush for more than 75 yards in their last game and does not allow more than 100 rushing YPG have then failed to cover the point spread in 53 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Wisconsin-Miami (FL) Orange Bowl Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (264) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Wisconsin Badgers (263) and the Miami Hurricanes (264). Miami (FL) (10-2) has lost two straight games with their 38-3 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as a 12.5-point underdog. The Hurricanes have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Miami has not scored more than 14 points in their last two games — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two touchdowns in two straight games. The Hurricanes will be playing on their home field at Hard Rock Stadium — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home field. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, Miami has played 6 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, the Hurricanes have played a decisive 45 of their last 65 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. And in the last 4 Bowl games, Miami has played all 4 games Under the Total.

Wisconsin (12-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-21 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Look for this Badgers team to play much better on defense — they still rank number one in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 253.2 total YPG. In their six road games this season, Wisconsin allowed only 12.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just 284.5 total YPG. The Badgers have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a favorite of 7 points or less. Wisconsin has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10 point range. Additionally, the Badgers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. And in their last 5 Bowl games, Wisconsin has seen the Under go 3-1-1. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Wisconsin Badgers (263) and the Miami Hurricanes (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (261) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (262) in the Fiesta Bowl. Washington (10-2) has won two straight games with their 41-14 win over Washington State in the Apple Bowl back on November 25th. The Huskies have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Washington allowed 369 passing yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This Huskies defense is outstanding led by All-Americandefensive tackle Vita Vea. Washington ranks 5th in the nation by allowing only 14.5 PPG while also limiting their opponents to just 277.4 total YPG. Defense travels — and the Huskies have outscored their five opponents when away from home by +12.8 PPG while also outgaining them by +70.2 net YPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games in December, the Huskies have covered the point spread 4 games.  

Penn State (10-2) has won three straight games with their 66-3 blowout win at Maryland. The Nittany Lions have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Penn State enjoyed a 24-0 halftime lead against the Terrapins — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games on the road after not allowing more than a field goal in the first-half of their last game. This team will be without their offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead who left the program to take over as head coach at Mississippi State. Some observers consider Moorhead the real genius in this program under head coach James Franklin — and I am one of those individuals. I expect the offense to really miss Moorhead in this game. As it is, the Nittany Lions struggled to run the football against some top defenses: they rushed for 91 yards against Ohio State while managing just 65 rushing yards against Michigan State. Now Penn State will be facing their most difficult opponent yet in stopping the run in this Huskies team that was tops in the nation by allowing only 92.3 rushing YPG. The Nittany Lions have played two straight games Over the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Overs. And while Penn State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. 25* CFB Washington-Penn State Fiesta Bowl Special with the Washington Huskies (261) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Washington Huskies (261) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (262). Penn State (10-2) has won three straight games with their 66-3 blowout win at Maryland to close out their regular season. The Nittany Lions have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Penn State went into halftime with a 31-0 lead over the Terrapins — and they have then played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after holding at least a 24-point lead at halftime in their last game. The Nittany Lions have also played 50 of their last 77 games Under the Total after allowing 3 points or less in their last game. Moving forward, Penn State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field with the Total in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 87 games against teams outside the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions have played 55 of these games Under the Total.

Washington (10-2) has won two straight games with their 41-14 win over Washington State back on November 25th as a 9.5-point favorite. The Huskies have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Washington has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. On defense, Washington ranks 5th in the nation by allowing only 14.5 PPG while also limiting their opponents to just 277.4 total YPG. They held their opponents to -121 YPG below their season average this year. Lastly, the Huskies have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Washington Huskies (261) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (260) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (259) in the Liberty Bowl. Iowa State (7-5) has lost three of their last four games with their 20-19 loss at Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 25th. The Cyclones are a trendy pick this afternoon being an underdog against a Group of Five program despite having scored upset wins against Oklahoma and TCU this season. But this is a true road game for this Iowa State team playing on Memphis’ home field against the Tigers. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference rival. Iowa State has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when on the road with the Total set at least at 63. And while the Cyclones held the Wildcats to only 264 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game.

Memphis (10-2) looks to bounce-back from their 62-55 loss at Central Florida in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game back on December 2nd. The Tigers were 6.5-point underdogs in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. The Tigers are the home hosts for this Liberty Bowl where they were a perfect 7-0 this season with an average winning margin of +19.8 PPG. Memphis outgained their visitors by +89.5 net YPG. The Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home. They certainly should be motivated to defeat a Power-Five school that defeated an Oklahoma team that will be in the College Football Playoff on Monday — so Memphis fans can get their Transitive Properties defenses boned up with a victory here. Lastly, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. 10* CFB Iowa State-Memphis Liberty Bowl Special with the Memphis Tigers (260) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (258) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (257) in the Taxslayer Bowl. Louisville (8-4) closed out their season winning three straight games in decisive fashion — culminating in a 44-17 win at Kentucky. The Cardinals averaged 46 PPG over that stretch while holding those three opponents to just 315 YPG. But the competition was not spectacular with those wins being against the Wildcats along with Virginia and Syracuse. Don’t be surprised to see this Louisville team suffer a letdown now. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Cardinals are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, while Louisville gained 562 yards against the Kentucky defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last contest, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Behind last year’s Heisman Trophy winner in QB Lamar Jackson, this team has the weapons to blow out inferior opponents. But their offensive line tends to be overwhelmed by big and powerful defensive lines from top-tier defensive programs. In their three games against Clemson, NC State and Florida State, Louisville scoring average plummeted to 25.7 PPG. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the ACC, Louisville is 1-6-1 ATS.

Mississippi State (8-4) is in the middle of a coaching transition with head coach Dan Mullen along with defensive coordinator Todd Grantham moving to Florida. Former Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Morehead will be taking over the Bulldogs job with special teams coach Greg Knox serving as interim head coach while calling the plays having also been the running backs coach this season. Additionally, junior QB Nick Fitzgerald is out after that gruesome leg injury he suffered in the Egg Bowl which was a 31-28 upset loss for Mississippi State despite being a 14-point favorite to Ole Miss. True freshman QB Kenton Thompson will be under center this afternoon. These circumstances are scaring off many bettors — but not me. I am thrilled that we can get up to 7 points with this tough SEC team that defeated LSU while playing a very competitive game with Alabama. The defense remains in tact for this game (as opposed to Louisville who has two star players skipping the game to avoid risking injury for the April NFL draft). The Bulldogs ranked 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to 302.0 total YPG. Thompson was solid in his debut against the Rebels as he completed 13 of 27 passes for 195 yards in relief while adding another 121 yards on 26 carries on the ground. The dual threat QB should benefit from the bowl practices where he worked with the first team offense. Mississippi State has the element of surprise in this game with two different offensive and defensive coordinators calling their first games in this one. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after playing a game at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss a home to a conference rival. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Lastly, the Bulldogs did rush for 294 yards against Ole Miss in their last game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. 20* CFB Louisville-Mississippi State Taxslayer Bowl Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (258) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (255) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (256) in the Cotton Bowl. USC (11-2) has won five straight games since their bad loss at Notre Dame — culminating in their 31-28 win over Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game as a 3.5-point favorite. The Trojans outgained the Cardinal generated 501 yards of offense in that game while winning the yardage battle by +158 net yards. USC has then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 125 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 175 yards. USC averaged 7.45 Yards-Per-Play against Stanford — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. This is now a healthier football team again playing behind QB Sam Darnold who is 20-3 as a starter. The Trojans had a 24 players on the injured list against the Irish. Look for USC to build off their momentum to play well in this game. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games after wining six or seven of their last eight games — including covering the point spread six of their last eight games after winning six or seven of their last eight. USC has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after wining eight of their last ten games. And in their last 12 games played with the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Trojans have covered the point spread 8 times.

Ohio State (11-2) has won four straight games culminating by winning the Big Ten Championship Game over Wisconsin by a 27-21 score. But the Buckeyes have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 7 points or less against a Big Ten rival. This Ohio State team is as talented as any team in the nation but mistakes, turnovers and mediocre play on Special Teams has held this team back all season. In there four biggest games against Oklahoma, Penn State, Michigan and then the Badgers, Ohio State won three of the games but two were by 6 points or less with the win over the Wolverines surpassing that threshold only with a late touchdown. The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten. Ohio State has not allowed more than 21 points in their last four games since their season-ruining loss at Iowa — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 25 points in at least three straight games. Their win over Wisconsin fell Under the 51 point Total — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Lastly, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. 20* CFB USC-Ohio State Cotton Bowl Special with USC Trojans (255) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the USC Trojans (255) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (256). Ohio State (11-2) has won four straight games after their triumphant 27-21 in over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game as a 3-point favorite. The Buckeyes have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up game. Ohio State has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Buckeyes outgained the Badgers by +151 net yards in that contest — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after outgunning their last opponent by at least +175 yards. Ohio State rushed for 238 yards against Wisconsin — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The Buckeyes averaged 6.6 Yards-Per-Play against the Badgers — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game.

USC (11-2) has won five straight games with their 31-28 win over Stanford back on December 1st as a 3.5-point favorite. The Trojans have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. USC has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Moving forward, the Trojans have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. USC has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total outside Pac-12 play. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Lastly, the Over is 7-3-1 in the Trojans’ last 11 Bowl game appearances. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the USC Trojans (255) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Utah State Aggies (253) and the New Mexico State Aggies (254). Utah State (6-6) enters this game coming off a 38-35 loss at Air Force as a 2.5-point favorite back on November 25th. Utah State has then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Utah State gained 521 yards in that losing effort — and they have then played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 4 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference, the Aggies have played all 4 games Over the Total.

New Mexico State (6-6) has won two straight games with their 22-17 win over South Alabama back on December 2nd as a 12-point favorite. These Aggies have then seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. New Mexico State generated 491 yards in that victory — and the Over is then 26-12-1 in their last 39 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, New Mexico State has played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. Together, these team trends produce our specific 89-34-2 combined angle for this situation. 25* CFB CBS-Sports Network Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Utah State Aggies (253) and the New Mexico State Aggies (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (249) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (250) in the Sun Bowl. Arizona State (7-5) is another bowl team in the middle of a coaching transition with sixth-year head coach Todd Graham fired for ESPN television personality (and former NFL head coach coach over a decade ago) Herm Edwards. Graham has agreed to stay on to coach this game — and I do expect his players to play hard for their lame duck leader who recruited all of them. But this Sun Devils team looks due for a letdown anyways after they ended their season with a 42-30 upset win against their arch-rival Arizona as a 2-point underdog back on November 25th. This team pulled off four upsets this season with their win over Washington being their highest-profile victory. Arizona State has won five of their last seven games while covering the point spread in seven of their last nine games. But the Sun Devils have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Those are not encouraging team trends for a program that will have new coordinators on both sides of the football for this game. As it is, Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Sun Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the month of December. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field, Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

NC State (8-4) enters this Bowl game having won two of their last three games with their 33-21 win over North Carolina back on November 25th. This is a good football team under head coach Dave Doeren that defeated Louisville and Florida State this season. The Wolfpack have then covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games coming off a bye. NC State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a game that they played at home. Led by future first-round NFL draft pick Bradley Chubb at defensive end, the Wolfpack have a strong defense that held their opponents to just 24.8 PPG. Defense travels — and NC State outgained their six opponents away from home by +65.0 net YPG. The Wolfpack have played three straight games Under the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after playing at least two straight games that finished Under the Total. Lastly, NC State is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Bowl game appearances. 10* CFB NC State-Arizona State CBS-TV Special with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (249) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (248) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (247) in the Belk Bowl. Wake Forest (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their regular season game which was a 31-23 upset loss to Duke as a 10.5-point favorite. The Demon Deacons have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Wake Forest has the geographical edge in this matchup with this Bowl being played in nearby Charlotte. This was a battle-tested team that had a 4-5 record against teams that reached a Bowl game — as compared to the 1-5 record that Texas A&M had against bowl teams this season. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. And in their last 4 Bowl games, head coach Dave Clawson’s team has covered the point spread all 4 times.

Texas A&M (7-5) is in the middle of their coaching transition from Kevin Sumlin to Jimbo Fisher. Special Teams Coordinator Jeff Banks will be coaching the team as the interim head coach since Sumlin was terminated after the Aggies’ 45-21 loss at LSU as an 11-point underdog to close out their regular season. Look for Texas A&M to be flat as they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Aggies gave up 351 yards to the middling LSU passing attack in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Texas A&M is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Aggies have surrendered 37 PPG to their last five opponents representing a Power-Five Conference. Moving forward, the Aggies are just 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning record which offers some insight into why Sumlin was fired. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in the month of December. And in their last 11 Bowl games, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 times. 10* CFB Texas A&M-Wake Forest Belk Bowl Special with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (248) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (247). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (278) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (277) in the Holiday Bowl. Michigan State (9-3) opened this game as a small underdog — and with most of the money being bet on Sparty, they now find themselves as a small favorite in the 2-point range. But the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games without head coach Mark Dantonio being able to play the “disrespect” card. Michigan State has won two straight games after their 40-7 win at Rutgers as a 13.5-point favorite. But the Spartans have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Michigan State forced three turnovers in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. And while Sparty did not commit a turnover in that contest, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after committing no more than one turnover in their last contest. Michigan State does have a very good defense that has allowed 97 rushing yards combined in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Remember, this Spartans defense was exposed by Ohio State in a their 48-3 loss to the Buckeyes last month in a game where they allowed 524 yards of offense. The Michigan State offense scored only 23.6 PPG in their five games on the road this year — and they were outgained by -2.6 net PPG in their five games away from East Lansing. The Spartans have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.

Washington State (9-3) should be very motivated to redeem themselves on this national stage from a pair of bad performances. For starters, the Cougars completely laid an egg last season in a 17-12 loss to Minnesota in this very same Holiday Bowl despite facing a severely depleted Golden Gophers team due to a slew of suspensions that the team handed out for disciplinary reasons that almost compelled them to cancel appearing at the game. We took the Gophers that night and I have had the Washington State opportunity for redemption in the back of my mind all year. The Cougars also look to get the bad taste out of their mouths from their 41-14 loss at Washington back on November 25th to close out their regular reason. Washington State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Quarterback Luke Falk did complete 37 of 55 passes for 369 yards in that game — and the Cougars have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after they passed for at least 280 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last contest. Washington State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 16 games as the underdog, Washington State has covered the point spread in 11 of these games. 25* CFB Fox Sports 1 Game of the Year with the Washington State Cougars (278) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (277) in the Holiday Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing then TCU Horned Frogs (246) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (245) in the Alamo Bowl. TCU (10-3) looks to bounce-back from getting throttled in the Big 12 Championship Game at Oklahoma in their 41-17 loss as a 7-point underdog. The Horned Frogs have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Take away two losses to an Oklahoma team that is hoping to play for a National Championship and this TCU team lost to just one other team this season. They have an outstanding defense that limits their opponents to just 17.6 PPG (11th in the FBS) while holding those teams to only 328.5 total YPG (17th in the FBS). On offense, they are led by senior QB Kenny Hill who completed 67% of his passes this season. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 60 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. TCU has also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And with this game being played on field turf in San Antonio which will give the Horned Frogs a geographical advantage, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on turf.

Stanford (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the Pac-12 Championship Game in their 31-28 loss at USC as a 3.5-point favorite. The Cardinal has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. This is a typical Stanford team of late on the offensive side of the football as they thrive in their rushing attack but struggle with their passing game. Running back Bryce Love should be healthier than he was in the second-half of the regular season. But the Cardinal passing attack ranked just 97th in the FBS by averaging 184.3 passing YPG. However, this is an atypical Stanford team that is not nearly as tough on defense as they usually are. The Cardinal allowed opponents to average 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and they ranked 71st in the FBS by allowing 170.7 rushing YPG. Overall, Stanford was 74th in total defense by giving up 398.8 total YPG. In the previous five seasons, the Cardinal held their Pac-12 opponents to average -103 YPG below their season average. This season, these conference opponents averaged just -13 net YPG below their season offensive average. Lastly, Stanford lost all four of their games away from home this season where they were outgained by -73.0 net YPG. 10* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the TCU Horned Frogs (246) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (245) in the Alamo Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (243) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (244) in the Camping World Bowl. Virginia Tech (9-3) has won two straight games after their 10-0 shutout victory at Virginia. The Hokies have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win Virginia Tech has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last contest. This Hokies defense is one of the best in the nation as they are holding their opponents to just 13.5 PPG which is 5th best in the FBS — and they rank 11th in the nation by holding their opponents to only 305.3 total YPG. Defense travels — and Virginia Tech was 4-2 on the road with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG due to this defense that held those opponents to only 17.8 PPG. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in expected higher-scoring games where the Total was set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Virginia Tech has also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 point range. I am expected redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Jackson to have improved during the extra Bowl practices under their offensive guru of a head coach in Justin Fuente. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outside the ACC. And in their last 11 games in the month of December, Virginia Tech has covered the point spread 8 times.

Oklahoma State (9-3) reached this Bowl game after their 58-17 win over Kansas back on November 25th as a big 40.5-point favorite. The Cowboys have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Oklahoma State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while the Total was set at 67 for that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing at game that finished Over the Total. Interestingly, the Cowboys played another team on their schedule known for having a good defense with strong Special Teams but a sometimes questionable offense — and that Kansas State team defeated them by a 45-40 score. I think that result serves as a harbinger for this game. Oklahoma State does not do well with their Special Teams while this Hokies team remains excellent in that area of the game two years removed from the Frank Beamer era that specialized in Special Teams play. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games when favored in the 3.5 to 10 point range, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 20* CFB Virginia Tech-Oklahoma State Camping World Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (243) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (242) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Virginia Cavaliers (241) in the Military Bowl. Navy (6-6) is a team that is often faded in Bowl games given the conventional wisdom that the opponent’s opportunity to practice for a few weeks against their unique spread triple option mitigates the inherent advantage the Midshipmen have from week-to-week deploying that offense. And that is some solid 2012 reasoning. However, bettors have caught up to that logic and the oddsmakers have adjusted. Bettors were also using that logic to bet against Army against a San Diego State teach coached by Rocky Long who was being described as the Yoda of defending spread triple options. The fact is that these triple option offenses are so tricky because there is a second (and third) level of adjustments that can be made once defenses begin to catch up to it. In regards to the Naval Academy, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight Bowl games which should put that Hot Take to rest for the time being. The Midshipmen host this Bowl game which gives them a significant advantage in this contests. Navy was 4-1 at home this year while outgaining their opponents by +50.4 net YPG. They are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games on their home field. These Midshipmen should be very motivated to end their season on a high note after losing three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after losing their rivalry game against Army in heartbreaking fashion in the snow by a 14-13 score. Navy was 2.5-point favorites in that game — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. Navy faced a very competitive schedule this season so they enter this game battle tested.

Virginia (6-6) limps into the postseason as well having lost three straight games with their 10-0 loss at home to Virginia Tech. The listless Cavaliers’ offense managed to gain only 191 yards of offense in that game. Virginia ranks 100th in the FBS by scoring just 23.8 PPG — and they also rank 100th in the FBS by averaging only 356.2 total YPG. The Cavaliers managed only 5 rushing yards in that contest — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. Virginia is also 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last game. Defense is a concern in this game for Bronco Mendenhall’s team. The Cavaliers do a great job stopping opponent’s passing attacks as they rank 17th in the FBS by holding teams to just 179.6 passing YPG. But Virginia allows their opponents to rush for 178.3 rushing YPG which is 82nd in the FBS which is a grave concern when looking to slow down the Navy spread triple option. The Hokies ran for 202 yards against the Virginia defense — and the Cavaliers are then 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Lastly, the Cavaliers were just 2-3 on the road this season while being outgained by -5.0 net PPG. 10* CFB Virginia-Navy Military Bowl Special with the Navy Midshipmen (242) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (241). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (240) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (239) in the Texas Bowl. Texas (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their last regular season game back on November 24th in their 27-23 loss to Texas Tech. It is pretty easy for Bowl observers to point to head coach Tom Herman’s 9-1 ATS record as an underdog in his head coaching career — and that includes overseeing six straight-up upset victories. While that helps to establish some confidence that Herman is effective at motivating his team when the odds are stacked against them, this logic has become conventional wisdom. On the other hand, a knee-jerk play-against this evolving conventional wisdom would be foolhardy as well. I do like the Longhorns to come out with a strong effort in their home state where sending good vibes is important to Herman for recruiting. Texas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. This Longhorns team has a stout defense that ranked 30th in the FBS by holding opponents to just 21.7 PPG. In their six games away from home, Texas held their opponents to only 18.0 PPG. This defensive play has helped the Longhorns go 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. On offense, look for this unit to play well behind promising freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger who should benefit from the extra weeks of bowl preparation. The Longhorns have three players who have defied to not play this game to protect their health for the upcoming NFL draft — but roster talent has never been the issue with this team. Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral field, the Longhorns have covered the point spread 5 times.

Missouri (7-5) enters this Bowl game on a six-game winning streak after their 48-45 win at Arkansas as a 10-point favorite. The Tigers have then failed to her the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Missouri did gain a whopping 696 yards against the Razorbacks — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This Tigers team feasted off bad competition where their spread offense was able to run up the score. Against the seven Bowl teams they faced this season, Mizzou scored 54 PPG. But against the five teams participating in Bowl games this season, the Tigers were winless while scoring a mere 18.5 PPG. That makes them precarious favorites tonight — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of December. 25* CFB Wednesday Bowl Special Feature with the Texas Longhorns (240) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (239) in the Texas Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (275) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (276) in the Foster Farm’s Bowl. Arizona (7-5) has lost two straight games with their 42-30 upset loss at Arizona State back on November 25th. That loss may be indicative of a book that has begun to be established against sophomore QB Khalil Tate who tore up the Pac-12 when head coach Rich Rodriguez inserted him into the starting lineup. The Wildcats won five of their last eight games with Tate as the starting QB taking over for junior Brandon Dawkins. But over his last two starts, Tate ran the ball only 22 times for 60 yards while completing 29 of his 48 passes for 291 yards which are akin to numbers he was putting up in just one game (albeit with less passing and more rushing attempts). Rodriguez eventually benched Tate to give Dawkins a chance to move the ball in their rivalry game against Arizona State. But, as always, the bigger concerns with Rodriguez-coached teams are defense and discipline. The Wildcats ranked 116th in the FBS by allowing 464.2 total YPG. They surrendered 227 yards to the Sun Devils — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. It is poor Special Teams, penalties and overall undisciplined play that makes Arizona an unreliable small favorite under Rich Rod. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Arizona has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played in the month of December. Additionally, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. And in their last 6 Bowl game appearances, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

Purdue (6-6) became Bowl eligible by winning their last two games of the regular season — culminating with their 31-24 win over Indiana back on November 25th. The Boilermakers’ racked up 453 yards of offense in that victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The offense has played a bit better with first-year head coach Jeff Brohm settling on Elijah Sindelar as the main signal-caller. He completed 15 of 29 passes for 159 yards but threw two TD passes and no interceptions against the Hoosiers. Purdue did surrender 497 yards to the Indiana offense — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. This Boilermakers defense should play better as they ranked 16th in the nation by allowing just 19.3 PPG. Even better, when Purdue was on the road in six games this season, they surrendered only 17.8 PPG along with 347.7 total YPG. The Boilermakers outscored their opponents on the road by +2.4 PPG while outgaining them by +27.0 net YPG which makes them dangerous underdogs against this inconsistent Wildcats team. Purdue has a loaded front seven that accounted for 25 sacks while holding opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. This is the Boilermakers first Bowl game in five years so they will be very excited for this opportunity. Lastly, Purdue has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams from the Pac-12. 10* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (275) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (276) in the Foster Farm’s Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (237) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (238) in the Pinstripe Bowl. Boston College (7-5) has won two straight games — as well as six of their last eight contests — with their 42-14 win at Syracuse in their last regular season game back on November 25th as a 4.5-point favorite. The Eagles are then 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Boston College is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. This became a changed football team when freshman A.J. Dillon entered the starting lineup. Dillon de-committed from Michigan to enroll at BC with the promise of a better immediate opportunity for playing time — and he proved why by rushing for 1432 yards with a 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry average along with 13 TDs. Dillon ran the ball 23 times for 193 yards en route to the Eagles putting up 333 yards in that win over the Orangemen. Boston College has then a decisive 40-19-2 in their last 61 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. An effective ground game makes the Eagles dangerous because of their typically strong play on defense. This season, BC ranks 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Defense and a strong ground game travels — and the Eagles were 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +10.1 PPG. Boston College is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Eagles are 4-0-1 ATS.

Iowa (7-5) snapped their two-game losing streak in their last regular season game with a 56-14 win at Nebraska as a 4.5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. This Hawkeyes team peaked this season when they scored 55 points while tallying a remarkable 487 yards of offense against a shellshocked Ohio State team that was turning the ball over left and right. But against the five other Big Ten teams that played in Bowl games, Iowa scored only 13.6 PPG while averaging a mere 228.0 total YPG. Additionally, Iowa was outgained by -28.8 net YPG in their five games on the road. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Bowl games. And in their last 4 games played on a neutral field, Iowa is just 0-3-1 ATS. 10* CFB Boston College-Iowa Pinstripe Bowl Special with the Boston College Eagles (237) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (235) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (236) in the Independence Bowl. Florida State (6-6) enters this game winning and covering the point spread in three straight games to become Bowl eligible. Their last game was a 42-10 win over UL-Monroe back on December 2nd as a 26-point favorite. The Seminoles generated 504 yards of offense in that game — but they are then 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 405 yards in their last game. And while they did not force a turnover against the Ragin’ Cajun defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. This is a team in transition with Odell Haggins serving as the interim coach before Willie Taggart takes over for the departed Dabo Swinney who took the money to go to Texas A&M. While Florida State was snake-bit by injuries this season which was made worse by a difficult schedule, they remain a precarious big favorite laying more than two touchdowns. This team scored only 17.3 PPG while averaging 267.2 total YPG when away from home this season. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, Florida State is just 0-4-2 ATS.

Southern Miss (8-4) has won three straight games after their 28-27 upset win at Marshall as a 2-point underdog. The Golden Eagles should build off that momentum with confidence they can pull off a high-profile upset this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Southern Miss has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Golden Eagles outrushed the Thundering Herd in that game by a 201 to 74 yard margin — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 125 yards. There is no question that Southern Miss faced the weaker schedule this season. But they will have the geographical and crowd advantage in this game with it being played in Shreveport. They also have been consistent when playing away from home as they are 5-1 on the road while outgaining their opponents by +87.2 net YPG. Defense travels — and the Golden Eagles rankled 17th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 321.9 total YPG. Lastly, Southern Miss has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents. 10* CFB Southern Mississippi-Florida State Independence Bowl Special with the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (235) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (236) in the Independence Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (234) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (233) in the Cactus Bowl. Kansas State (7-5) enters this Bowl game having won two straight games as well as four of their last five with their 20-19 win over Iowa State. But the Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a victory over a Big 12 rival by 7 points or less. Moving forward, lets just say that I like betting on Bill Snyder’s teams when they are underdogs but become wary of them when they are laying the points. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points. Kansas State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing on a neutral field as the favorite. I know that they are facing a UCLA team that is a hot mess — but these Wildcats are no beacons of serene stability themselves. They are down to their third-string quarterback in freshman Skylar Thompson. Their seven wins this season could be considered an overachievement when considering that were outgained by their opponents by -63.7 net YPG. This Kansas State team ranked surprisingly low at 97th in the FBS by allowing 432.0 total YPG due to a porous pass defense that allowed a whopping 310.3 passing YPG which was 128th in the nation. These Wildcats also were outgained by -99.0 net YPG when playing away from home. Furthermore, Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral field. Snyder is a great coach — but I do think the extra preparation time in Bowl games helps to level the playing field since opposing coaches get extra time to find some angles that Snyder seems to discover on a week-to-week advantage to help his team continually overachieve. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Bowl games.

UCLA (6-6) is in a state of transition with Chip Kelly taking over the program after Jim Mora was fired after the team’s loss to USC. Quarterback Jay Rosen will not play in this game because of a concussion leaving it to freshman QB Devon Modster to run the offense. Modster stepped in for Rosen in the second half of their last game against Cal when Rosen was knocked out of that game with this head injury and he completed 14 of 18 passes for 191 yards to lead the Bruins to a 30-27 win over the Golden Bears. This UCLA team is a train wreck on defense — despite having talent. And this group was winless in their six road games. But I like the situation for these proverbial misfit toys with zero expectations on them. Interim head coach Jedd Fisch oversaw the victory over Cal and has plenty of incentive to show something here as it could set him up for head coaching college jobs. Fisch comes from the Jim Harbaugh coaching tree and left the Wolverines as their co-offensive coordinator to work with Rosen. Worst case scenario for Fisch is another offensive coordinator gig with a good Power Five Conference team. I also think he has helped make Modster better during Bowl practices with the freshman now getting all the coaching attention while working with the first team offense. Modster has shown that he can fulfill on his vast promise coming out of high school as he has completed 66.7% of his 45 passes this season while averaging a strong 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog on a neutral field. Lastly, while UCLA does allow 36.8 PPG, these teams should not be dismissed too quickly. The Bruins win over Cal fell below the 66 point Total — and underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range who allow at least 35.0 PPG but come off a game that finished Under the Total have then covered the point spread in 75 of the last 117 situations where these conditions applied. 10* CFB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (234) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (233) in the Cactus Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (231) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (232) in the Quick Lane Bowl. Northern Illinois (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their last regular season in a 31-24 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 2.5-point favorite. That was a disappointing result for the Huskies (and us) as they went into a halftime with a comfortable 17-0 lead before being overwhelmed by the Chippewas in the final 30 minutes. Northern Illinois be anxious to redeem themselves from that loss. Head coach Rod Carey has also certainly reminded him team of the team’s humiliating performance in the 2015 Poinsettia Bowl where they lost to Boise State by a 55-7 score while being outgained by an incredible 654-33 margin. Injuries played a role in that results — and I do not think that performance offers any evidence as to how the Huskies can perform against a Power Five Conference representative. This team defeated Nebraska this season while losing by just 3 points to a feisty Boston College team this season. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference rival. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game — and this includes covering the point spread in six of their last seven games with that situation. And while the Huskies have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Northern Illinois may have finally found the heir to quarterback Jordan Lynch that led the program to great heights climaxing in an Orange Bowl appearance five years ago. Redshirt freshman QB Marcus Childers has the passing and running mix that Carey likes to see from his quarterback to make this spread offense hum. The Huskies also have a great defense that built off the momentum they established in their final five games of the 2016 season. Northern Illinois allowed just 20.8 PPG (27th in the FBS) while ranking 18th in the nation by limiting opponents to only 328.0 total YPG based on a stout run defense that is 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 112.3 rushing YPG. This helps the Huskies to be dangerous underdogs. They have covered the point spread in a decisive 54 of their last 89 games including three of their last four and eight of their last thirteen games when getting the points. Northern Illinois has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference. 

Duke (6-6) followed up a 43-20 upset victory over Georgia Tech as a 6.5-point underdog by then upsetting Wake Forest in Winston Salem on November 25th as a 10.5-point underdog to become bowl eligible for head coach David Cutcliffe. The Blue Devils tend to be a dangerous underdog themselves under Cutcliffe as they pulled off four upsets this season. But perhaps Cutcliffe needs to road trip to the Alabama locker room sometime to listen to how Nick Saban motivates his team as perpetual favorites as this Duke team suffered three upset losses as the favorite also this season. Needless to say, I am not comfortable in the Blue Devils laying points. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three straight games after pulling an upset on the road. The Blue Devils had lost six straight games in a stretch where they scored just 12.0 PPG before pulling off these last two upsets. Duke scores only 19.6 PPG away from home while generating a mere 304.4 total YPG. They were outscored by -3.0 net PPG on the road while being outgained by -31.2 net YPG. The Huskies, on the other hand, outscored their six road opponents by +2.1 net YPG while also winning the yardage battle. Duke’s win over the Demon Deacons fell below the 59 point total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Lastly, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing their last two games against ACC rivals. 25* CFB Tuesday Bowl Special Feature with the Northern Illinois Huskies (231) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (232) in the Quick Lane Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Take Under the Total in the game between the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Duke Blue Devils in the Quick Lane Bowl. Northern Illinois (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak in their last regular season game with their 31-24 loss at Central Michigan. The Huskies have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss. Northern Illinois has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Duke (6-6) enters this Bowl game coming off their 31-23 win at Wake Forest. The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record, Duke has played 9 of these games Under the Total. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year last night with the Oakland-Philly Under to further a RED HOT 17 of 22 (77%) Football run which has fueled a 70 of 93 (75%) Football mark! Now Frank turns back to College Football where he is is on a 35 of 48 (73%) CFB run after his SCORCHING 15 of 18 (83%) CFB Bowl mark so far this postseason! Frank made it a PERFECT 4-0 with his highest-rated 25* CFB Bowl plays with Fresno State on Sunday — and he looks to make it FIVE IN A ROW with the Northern Illinois-Duke ATS winner that is worthy of his 25* seal of approval! JOIN Frank for this 52* SPECIAL FEATURE!

At 1:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (230) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (229) in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. West Virginia (7-5) limped into their bowl game losing two straight games with their 59-31 loss at Oklahoma back on November 25th. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games under head coach Dana Holgorsen. But this West Virginia team is undermanned entering this bowl game. Quarterback Will Grier has announced he is returning to the school to use his final year of eligibility — but the finger injury that kept him out of the last two games will keep him from taking the field this afternoon. Sophomore Chris Chugunov will be the starting QB this afternoon. While he has completed just 54% of his passes, he has the luxury of an outstanding group of wide receivers and he should have gotten better with the benefit of bowl practices. Running back Justin Crawford is also bypassing this game to protect his precious draft stock — but, frankly, that is not as big a deal as advertised. Sophomore running back Kennedy McKoy rushed the ball 25 times for 137 yards against the Sooners while leading the Mountaineers to 250 rushing yards against Oklahoma. The Mountaineers have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Holgorson offense that ranked 14th in the nation in total offense should find a rhythm this afternoon because the head coach always seems to get his offense going. Defense is another issue. West Virginia allowed 646 yards to the Sooners including 313 yards on the ground — but they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 275 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 50 points in their last game. The Holgorson offensive attack does travel — they averaged 517.8 total YPG when playing on the road which helped them outgain their opponents by +32.1 net YPG. West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games.

Utah (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak in their final game in the regular season with their 34-13 win over Colorado. The big statistic that every pundit paying attention to Bowl games will surely be pointing out is that Utes’ head coach Kyle Whittingham has coached his team to a near perfect 10-1 record in Bowl games. While I am not going to invest the time to verify actually how many of those games were situations where Whittingham’s team was being asked to laying close to a touchdown. I fully expect this Utes team to be prepared (as I consider the “motivational” angles for Bowl games to wildly overrated). That said, this Utes team may not be able to stop themselves from suffering a letdown after their nice statement win that they needed to become Bowl eligible. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival. The Utes have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after a win by at least three touchdowns against a conference rival. The team hopes to get sophomore QB Tyler Huntley back after he missed some starts. This always looked to be a down year for this Utah team that lost eight players to the NFL draft from last year’s team that finished 10-3. This young team was not nearly as good away from Salt Lake City this year where they were 2-3 while being outscored by -2.6 net PPG along with being outgained by -21.0 net YPG. Expect a close game where taking the points with the underdog should be worthwhile. 10* CFB Utah-West Virginia Heart of Dallas Bowl Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (230) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (229). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Philadelphia (12-2) returns home after playing their last three games on the road that culminated in a 34-29 win in New York over the Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. The Eagles have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up victory. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Nick Foles seems capable of leading this team deep into the playoffs even after the injury to Carson Wentz. Foles completed 24 of 38 passes for 237 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the win over the Giants. The Eagles did surrender 504 yards to the Giants last week - but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 8 games played on Monday Night Football, Philadelphia has covered the point spread 6 times.

Oakland (6-8) has lost two straight games with their 20-17 loss to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. The Raiders are without left tackle Donald Penn for the rest of the season which will further derail a struggling offense that is scoring only 17.0 PPG away from home this season. Oakland is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. The Raiders are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, this Oakland team is just 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games in the month of December. 10* NFL Christmas Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (131) and the Philadelphia Eagles (132). Philadelphia (12-2) enters this game coming off a 34-29 win in New York against the Giants on the heels of a 43-35 win in Los Angeles against the Rams. Those two games went Over the Total by 22 and 31 points respectively which may make it tempting for some bettors to expect another Over tonight. There are a host of empirical situational angles that help inform my decisions that do not end up being documented in my Reports but I wanted to highlight this one that identifies the contrarian play regarding the Under with the Eagles. After the first month of the season in games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, when one team has played their last two games Over the Total by at least two touchdowns, these games finished Under the Total in 34 of the last 44 situations (77%) where these conditions applied. The Eagles should see a much better effort from their defense after giving up 64 combined points over their last two games. Philly has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have also played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Eagles have played 37 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored in two straight contests. Philadelphia has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after two straight wins on the road. Returning home after playing a rigorous three straight games on the road should help this defense. On their home field, the Eagles are allowing only 15.2 PPG along with just 278.3 total YPG — and they have not given up more than 24 points at home all season. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 18 home games Under the Total as the favorite which includes playing their last two games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5 to 14 point range.

Oakland (6-8) enters this game coming off their 20-17 loss to Dallas back on December 17th. The Raiders have then played a decisive 39 of their last 57 road games Under the Total after a loss at home. This team struggles to score when away from home. Oakland is averaging just 17.0 PPG while generating a mere 292.5 total YPG when on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when on the road. And things are likely to get even tougher for Derek Carr and this offense with their Pro Bowl left tackle Donald Penn going on Injured Reserve with a foot injury. Penn will be missing his first game since the 2007 season after being a rock on the offensive line for this team. On the plus side, the Raiders are quietly playing much better on defensive side of the football. They are allowing only 334.3 total YPG over their last three contests. Lastly, Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when on the road in the last four weeks of the regular season. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (131) and the Philadelphia Eagles (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (130) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (129). Pittsburgh (11-3) has spent the week not only recovering from their loss to the Patriots and all that it means in terms of home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs but they are also dealing with the fallout of Ben Roethlisberger throwing an interception on the goal line that could have won (and covered the point spread) in that game. We are on a nice run right now — but things have been helped by seeing close games like that turn our way as we had a big play on the Patriots. Critics who think Roethlisberger should have just spiked the ball should have their Pundit Cards revoked permanently. Ask any New England bettor — or any Patriots player or coach — and they will tell you that they were praying for that game to go into overtime. The opportunity to win that game on one play — on the darn goal line — must be seized. Yes, bad things can happen when one takes risks — and we will always remember that play or the Russell Wilson interception in the Super Bowl. But the fact remains that even a high-risk pass into the middle of the field rarely results in an interception. Sure, in hindsight, Big Ben should not have thrown into double-coverage. But it is also a fact that these same pundits (along with the entire Football Analytics community) would be applauding Roethlisberger for pulling a Dan Marino fake-spike touchdown pass (just like they always call for on Twitter!) if the play would have worked. Rant aside, I think the Steelers’ suffered what we call a Deflating Loss that will negatively impact them now on the road as a big favorite. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. They are also a mere 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Roethlisberger did have a good game against the Pats by completing 22 of 30 passes for 281 yards — but the Steelers have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games passing for at least 250 passing yards. Big Ben not having his superstar wide receiver Antonio Brown certainly does not help matters. Brown has simply been spectacular this year. Pittsburgh surrendered 283 passing yards to the Patriots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of December. Pittsburgh has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Steelers are just 1-3-1 ATS.

Houston (4-10) looks to bounce-back from a humiliating 45-7 loss at Jacksonville last week. The Texans could do almost nothing on offense as they managed only 186 yards against the stout Jaguars defense. But look for head coach Bill O’Brien to get his offense working better back at home. O’Brien seems to always be ravaged with injuries — and he is dealing with his third-string QB in T.J. Yates. But there is a reason that Houston is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Texans are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they have not scored more than 16 points in four straight games, O’Brien’s team has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to score more than 17 points in at least two straight games. Defense has been a problem for this Houston team as well with injuries playing a big role — they are allowing 408.0 total YPG over their last three games. But Houston has covered the point spread in a decisive 19 of the last 24 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Houston NBC-TV Special with the Houston Texans (130) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.