At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (895) and the Baylor Bears (896). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (13-7) has lost five games in a row after their 77-68 loss at Arkansas as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Baylor (18-3) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 87-78 loss at Alabama as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears should be in a feisty mood after losing for just the second time in the Big 12/SEC Challenge on Saturday. Baylor has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing their second game in the last three days. They return home where they are making 49.0% of their shots which is translating into 81.8 Points-Per-Game. Baylor has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total when playing at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The Bears should dominate the offensive glass in this game against Bob Huggins’ team that allows their opponents to rebound 33.9% of their missed shots, ranking 343rd in the nation. Baylor is fifth in the country by rebounding 37.5% of their missed shots — and that mark improves to 38.6% when they are playing at home. The Over is 25-12-1 in the Bears’ last 38 games when they are favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. West Virginia has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. And while the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least three games in a row. West Virginia is struggling on the defensive end of the court — they are last in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and it is because of their half-court defense as they are last in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.4%. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.0% of their shots which is translating into 77.8 PPG. But the Mountaineers do have success in generating extra scoring chances by forcing turnovers in 24.0% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 15th in the nation. West Virginia can generate scoring transitions against this Bears team who turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions, ranking 205th in the nation. The Mountaineers forced 13 turnovers at a 19.1% rate against Baylor in their first meeting two weeks ago. Now West Virginia goes back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Mountaineers have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. West Virginia has also played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor won the first meetings between these two teams in Morgantown by a 77-68 score as a 4.5-point favorite on January 18th. The Mountaineers have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (895) and the Baylor Bears (896). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (768) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (767). THE SITUATION: Texas (15-5) has won two straight games after their 73-50 victory at TCU as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Tennessee (14-5) is on a three-game winning streak with their 78-71 win against Florida as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas continues to improve under first-year head coach Chris Beard as the team becomes more comfortable with his systems and style of play. They raced out to a 43-23 half-time lead in Fort Worth against a Horned Frogs team that just registered a high-profile victory against LSU this afternoon.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (681) plus the points versus the Richmond Spiders (682). THE SITUATION: VCU (12-6) has won two games in a row after their 70-68 upset win at Davidson as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Richmond (13-7) has won three games in a row with their 70-63 win at Rhode Island as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: VCU should off the momentum of their big win against the Wildcats. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after an upset win against an Atlantic 10 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row. This is their second game since last Saturday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing just their second game in a week. This is an interesting matchup since some of the strengths and subsequent weaknesses are mitigated by the tendencies of their opponent. VCU is second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.8% of their opponent’s possessions. But good luck turning over the Spiders who are sixth in the nation by turning the ball over in just 13.6% of their possessions. But on the other hand, the Rams sacrifice defensive rebounding to get out on the break — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.6% of their missed shots, ranking 332nd in the nation. But Richmond sacrifices offensive rebounds to defend fast breaks — they only rebound 22.3% of their missed shots, ranking 326th in the nation. VCU still holds an edge in two distinct areas. First, they lead the Atlantic 10 by making 40.9% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play. The Spiders are vulnerable in this regard — they rank 282nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.7% of their 3-pointers with that mark rising to 38.7% in conference play. Second, VCU is outstanding on the defensive end of the court. They rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they hold their opponents to just a 37.5% field goal percentage which is resulting in only 61.8 Points-Per-Game. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Richmond has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering at least three in a row. They return home for the first time since January 14th after playing their last three games on the road. The Spiders are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home after playing their last three games on the road. While they are 7-2 on their home court this season, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home when favored. Richmond has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. And in their last 37 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 range, the Spiders have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: VCU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. 20* CBB VCU-Richmond CBS Sports Network Special with the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (681) plus the points versus the Richmond Spiders (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (883) plus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (884). THE SITUATION: Manhattan (10-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 78-62 loss at Monmouth as an 8.5-point underdog on Sunday. Saint Peter’s (8-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 69-62 upset win at Marist as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Manhattan should play better tonight against a team that carries a similar profile. The Jaspers only made 35.6% of their shots against the Hawks which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. Manhattan us 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Jaspers are led by 6’5 senior Jose Perez. The Marquette transfer came to Manhattan for his final season — he is scoring 17.9 Points-Per-Game and averaging 4.6 Assists-Per-Game. Head coach Steve Masiello’s team is the second-best in the nation in getting to the free-throw line with a 45.0% free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. The Jaspers should get plenty of chances at the charity stripe tonight (where they make 74.5% of their free throws) against this Peacocks team that ranks 350th in the nation with an opponent’s free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 43.2%. This Manhattan team is shooting much better inside the arc this season (after making only 44.4% of their 2-pointers last year) with a 54.2% shooting clip in conference play, the top mark in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Association. The Jaspers stay on the road where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Saint Peter’s is just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win. They return home where they are 4-2 on the season — but they are only making 40.4% of their shots which is resulting in only 66.8 PPG. After playing their last three games on the road, the Peacocks play a home game for the first time since January 18th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after playing at least three straight games on the road. Saint Peter’s are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that can struggle to make shots — and they turn the ball in 20.9% and 20.8% of their possessions. Manhattan has the most impressive victory between these two teams — they beat a Liberty team currently ranked 96th in the nation in the kenpom rankings by 16 points. Saint Peter’s defeated Monmouth who rank 117th at kenpom. The Jaspers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Association Underdog of the Month with the Manhattan Jaspers (883) plus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (824) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (823). THE SITUATION: Iowa (14-5) has won three of their last four games after their 68-51 win against Penn State as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (16-3) has won four of their last five games with their 80-60 win against Northwestern as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa is once again dynamo on offense under head coach Fran McCaffrey. They rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But what is exciting about this Iowa team is their improved play on defense. After holding Rutgers to just 31.0% shooting eight days ago, they followed that up limiting the Nittany Lions to only 33.3% shooting on Saturday in that win. The Hawkeyes held Penn State to just 25 points in the first half — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The Hawkeyes stay at home where they have an 11-1 record with a net point differential of +22.5 Points-Per-Game. Iowa makes 48.5% of their shots at home which generates a whopping 90.2 PPG — and they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on their home court. They limit their guests to 41.0% shooting. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Boilermakers have out-rebounded their last four opponents by at least seven rebounds per game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding their last four opponents by at least six rebounds per game. Purdue has demonstrated some vulnerabilities on defense in Big Ten play — their opponents' effective field goal percentage in conference play of 51.9% ranks ninth. They allow Big Ten opponents to make 34.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking ninth. Big Ten foes are also nailing 51.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 10th in the conference. The Boilermakers do rank number one in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they do drop to sixth in the country in that metric when playing in true road games. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored by six points or less. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored overall — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue won the first meeting between these two teams by a 77-70 in West Lafayette. Iowa played that game with their All-American Keegan Murray who is third in the nation with a 22.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average. The Hawkeyes made only 5 of their 21 shots (23.8%) from behind the arc as well in that game — but now they return home where they make 36.8% of their shots from distance. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (824) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (823). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Illinois State Redbirds (720) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (719). THE SITUATION: Illinois State (10-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 56-53 upset loss as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Drake (14-6) has won four of their last five games with their 82-74 upset victory at Northern Iowa as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDBIRDS PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois State should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road. They return home where they are 9-2 this season with a +10.0 net point differential. They make 47.1% of their shots at home which results in 78.9 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their opponents to just a 40.9% field goal percentage. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Redbirds will be without Sy Chatman who suffered a torn ACL in the loss to the Purple Eagles on Sunday. He was the team’s leading rebounder with a 6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game clip — and he was second on the team with a 13.6 PPG scoring average. But they still have their leading scorer Antonio Reed who is scoring 20.2 PPG and they have forwards who can step up in Chatman’s absence including 6’9 forward Abdou Ndiaye who was expected to compete with Chatman for playing time — Ndiaye is averaging 6 minutes per game before tonight. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. They go on the road where they are just 4-5 this season. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Drake has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Illinois State will be looking to avenge an 85-76 loss at Drake on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 opportunities to avenge a loss this season. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Illinois State Redbirds (720) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (719). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (721) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (722). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (14-5) has lost two in a row and four of their last five after a 59-44 upset loss at home to TCU as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma State (10-8) has their two-game winning streak end on Saturday in a 56-51 loss at Texas as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State opened the season with 12 straight wins — but they are now facing the difficulties of playing in an uber-competitive Big 12 conference. But it would be a mistake to discount this team that has high-profile victories against Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa, Xavier on a neutral court, and Creighton on the road. They lost by just one point at Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. They only made 30.9% of their shots on Saturday against the Horned Frogs which was their second-lowest mark of the season. Iowa State is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 50 points in their last game. Their previous loss was a 72-60 setback last Tuesday at Texas Tech motivated by revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after two straight losses by 10 or more points. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 60 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing their second game in eight days. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 55 points in their last game. Scoring baskets is an issue for this team — they have not scored more than 64 points in eight straight games since a 98-93 win against Cleveland State on December 13th. To compound matters tonight, Oklahoma State will be without point Bryce Williams who is out with an ankle injury. The Cowboys are balanced on offense (or they lack reliable scorers …) — but Williams does lead the team with meager 10.6 Point-Per-Game and 3.3 Assists-Per-Game averages. In their last five games, they are making just 37.9% of their shots which is resulting in 57.2 PPG. They are only 3-3 on their home court where they have lost to the Xavier team that the Cyclones beat on a neutral court — and they also got upset at home to Oakland this season. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.

FINAL TAKE: These are two similar teams who rank sixth and seven in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency fueled by the fourth and twelfth best defensive turnover rates in the nation (Iowa State has the better numbers in both instances, by the way). Both teams also are loose with the ball when they have possession (the Cyclones have slightly better seasonal turnover numbers but have been worse in conference play relative to the Cowboys). But Iowa State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored. 25* CBB Big 12 Underdog of the Month with the Iowa State Cyclones (721) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Albany Great Danes (1147) and the UMass-Lowell River Hawks (1148). THE SITUATION: Albany (7-11) had their three-game winning streak snapped with an 86-75 loss to Stony Brook as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. UMass-Lowell (9-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 67-61 loss at New Hampshire as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Great Danes allowed Stony Brook to make 55.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. And Albany’s meager 44.8% field goal percentage in that game was actually the best shooting effort in their last five contests. The Great Danes have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 6 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they are making only 40.7% of their shots which is generating only 60.3 Points-Per-Game. Albany has played 37 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 26 road games as an underdog, the Great Danes have played 19 of these games Under the Total. Albany is playing tough on the other end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 41.0% shooting which is resulting in only 61.4 PPG. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning no more than 40% of their games. UMass-Lowell allowed New Hampshire to make 46.4% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent field goal percentage in their last 11 games. They have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the River Hawks have not scored more than 29 points in the first half in six straight games, they have then played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half of at least two straight games. They are making just 41.3% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 63.4 PPG. They return home where they are holding their opponents to just 37.6% shooting which is resulting in 61.2 PPG. UMass-Lowell has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when at home and favored. The River Hawks have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Albany and UMass-Lowell rank 332nd and 308th respectively in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. These two make only 29.3% and 27.7% of their shots from behind the arc — ranking 304th and 339th in the country. In their first meeting on January 12th, they combined to make only 7 of their 31 shots from behind the arc for a 22.6% combined clip in a game that the Great Danes won by a 57-47 score as a 2-point underdog. The River Hawks have played 6 straight Unders when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB America East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Albany Great Danes (1147) and the UMass-Lowell River Hawks (1148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (649) and the Missouri Tigers (650). THE SITUATION: Auburn (18-1) won their 15th straight game with their 80-71 win against Kentucky as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Missouri (8-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 86-76 loss at Alabama as an 18-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a solid technical play point to a higher-scoring game than expected. Auburn has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win in conference play. Auburn has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Auburn has registered at least 80 points in six straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where they scored 80 or more points. Head coach Bruce Pearl’s team is 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. On the road, they are scoring 81.4 Points-Per-Game on 46.4% shooting. In their last five games, Auburn is nailing 49.5% of their shots. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against SEC opponents. Missouri demonstrated some concerning signs on offense on Saturday by making 9 of their 24 shots (37.5%) from behind the arc. They are making 48.1% of their shots in their last five games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. But head coach Cuonzo Martin’s team ranks 13th in the SEC on Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Missouri returns home where they have played 19 of their last 28 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Missouri has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has played 7 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. Auburn has played 4 straight Overs against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when favored. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (649) and the Missouri Tigers (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Towson Tigers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Delaware Hens (872). THE SITUATION: Towson (14-6) had their five-game winning streak snapped with an 81-77 upset loss to UNC-Wilmington on Saturday. Delaware (14-6) has won three games in a row with their 80-77 win against Elon as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Towson should rebound with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Just ignore last year’s 4-13 record for Towson in a year impacted by COVID and injuries. Head coach Pat Skerry is a veteran head coach with a good track record — and he was aggressive in the transfer market to bolster the talent on his roster. This is a balanced team with four players scoring at least 10.7 Points-Per-Game. As usual, Skerry’s teams attack the offensive glass — the Tigers rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.7% of their missed shots. They should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against a Blue Hens team that allows their opponents to rebound 37.1% of their missed shots, 321st in the nation — and they are last in the Colonial Athletic Association by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 39.7% of their misses. This Towson team is different because they are taking many more shots from behind the arc. It is not uncommon for the Tigers to take fewer than 30% of their shots from 3-point range but this year they are taking 38.7% of their shots from distance which is just over the 38.1% national average. Even better, Towson is nailing 36.4% of their 3-pointers, ranking 49th in the nation. The Tigers defense is steadily improving as well — they rank second in the Colonial in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and top the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. Offensive rebounding and defense travels which is why Towson is 7-4 away from home with an average winning margin of +7.3 net Points-Per-Game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Towson has covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as a dog. Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with one day or less of rest. The Blue Hens have won five of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while Delaware has enjoyed halftime leads of at least seven points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after leading by at least five points at halftime in at least three games in a row. The Blue Hens are 7-0 at home this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. Furthermore, Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. The Blue Hens are led by George Washington transfer Jameer Nelson, Jr., the son of the former NBA player. But the vulnerability of this Delaware team is their defense.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are tied in conference play with a 5-2 record — but the Blue Hens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Towson has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against winning teams — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Underdog of the Month with the Towson Tigers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Delaware Hens (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacred Heart Pioneers (306207) plus the points versus the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306208). THE SITUATION: Sacred Heart (8-11) has won two games in a row after their 74-66 win against Central Connecticut State as a 9-point favorite on Monday. Mount St. Mary’s (6-12) has won two of their last three games after their 57-50 win at Merrimack as a 3-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIONEERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Sacred Heart team almost everyone from the young team that surprised expectations by finishing tied for third in the Northeast Conference last season. The Pioneers got clocked in the conference tournament against Bryant by 30 points — but they demonstrated their growth earlier this season by only losing by three points at Bryant on December 31st. Sacred Heart also scored an impressive opening victory to begin their season with an overtime win at LaSalle. The deeper analytics suggested that the Pioneers overachieved last season — however, the positive impact of head coach Anthony Latina should not be dismissed. Sacred Heart should play well in this game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a point spread loss. They are 3-1 so far in conference play. Latina runs a four-guard attack that is led by Tyler Thomas and Aaron Clarke who score 19.1 and 16.2 Points-Per-Game. This team is also one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation that ranks 109th in the country by pulling down 30.8% of their missed shots — and the lead the Northeast Conference by rebounding 37.7% of their misses. This is an area of weakness for the Mountaineers as they rank 233rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 29.6% of their misses. Sacred Heart has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Their offensive rebounding travels — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Mount St. Mary’s has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. And while the Mountaineers have played two straight Unders, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Now after playing their last four games on the road, they return home to play for the first time since December 18th. Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after playing at least three straight games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home. The Mountaineers have a big frontline with Mezzo Offurum, Nana Opoku, and Malik Jefferson who are 6’8, 6’9, and 6’9 respectively. It is this trio that helped them win the Northeast Conference tournament and go to the Big Dance last March. But these big men don’t shoot from distance - they are a combined 8 of 28 from 3-point land this season with Offurum dominating those numbers by taking 22 of those shots (but only making five). With these three a non-threat from distance with that 28% shooting mark from 3-point land, opponents are happy to play zone defenses against them. Mount St. Mary’s went on their late-season run a year ago because Damian Chong Qui became their Mr. Everything as the primary ball-handler and scorer. He transferred to Indiana-Fort Wayne in the offseason. Head coach Dan Englestad responded by bringing in Jalen Benjamin from UAB to take over that role — but Benjamin has not been as prolific in scoring, rebounding, and assists as Chong Qui, especially in clutch time. The Mountaineers rank 323rd in the nation in eight in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

FINAL TAKE: Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Underdog of the Month with the Sacred Heart Pioneers (306207) plus the points versus the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (744) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (743). THE SITUATION: Indiana (13-4) has won three of their last four games after their 78-71 win at Nebraska as an 8-point favorite on Monday. Purdue (15-2) has won three straight and seven of their last eight games after their 96-88 upset win in double-overtimes at Illinois on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hoosiers defeated the Cornhuskers despite allowing them to make 47.1% of their shots — that was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. Indiana has quickly become one of the best defensive teams in the nation in the first season under head coach Mike Woodson who has brought his vast experience as a head coach in the NBA to Bloomington. Indiana ranks 13th in the nation and second in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. They return home where they are 11-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.4 net Points-Per-Game. They have already beaten Ohio State at home this season. They have covered 8 straight games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Hoosiers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games as an underdog. Purdue played their best defensive game in their last five contests after holding the Illini to 41.6% shooting. The Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing a game where at least 175 combined points were scored. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. One of the Boilermakers’ two losses this season was on the road as a favorite against Rutgers. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Indiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 10* CBB Purdue-Indiana FS1-TV Special with the Indiana Hoosiers (744) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (743). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Massachusetts Minutemen (734) plus the points versus the Saint Louis Billikens (733). THE SITUATION: UMass (7-9) has lost four in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 81-68 loss to Rhode Island as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Saint Louis (11-5) won their third game in their last four with their 63-45 win against Fordham as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MINUTEMEN PLUS THE POINTS: UMass only shot 35.7% from the field on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. The Minutemen rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. UMass ranks third in the nation by nailing 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and they take 41.4% of their field goal attempts from 3-point land. In conference play, the Minutemen are making 46.4% of their 3-pointers. They face a Billikens team that has allowed their five opponents away from home to shoot 36.3% from 3-point land — and their three games in true road games in hostile environments, their home hosts have made 39.7% of their shots from downtown, the 319th worst mark in the nation. UMass has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while they have allowed at 77 and 81 points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. They stay at home where they are 6-2 on the season with an average winning margin of +6.5 Points-Per-Game. They score 80.1 PPG at home — and they have already upset Penn State and Rutgers at home this season. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after playing a game at home. They are also 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games as an underdog. The Billikens made 45.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But they have scored just 63 points in each of their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight contests. They held the Rams to only 28.6% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. But Saint Louis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. Away from home, the Billikens are 3-2 while making only 41.4% of their shots — and they allow their opponents to make 47.5% of their shots away from home. Saint Louis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Billikens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: UMass has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Underdog of the Month with the Massachusetts Minutemen (734) plus the points versus the Saint Louis Billikens (733). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (1142) minus the points versus the American Eagles (1141). THE SITUATION: Army (10-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-54 upset loss at Lafayette as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. American (5-10) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 63-55 win at home against Bucknell in a pick ‘em contest on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Army should respond to their upset loss with a strong performance tonight. They only made 33.9% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring at least 60 points on the road in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road. Head coach Jimmy Allen has three starters back from the group that finished 15-15 last season. They were the only Patriot League team that played non-conference games in a year impacted by COVID. They are 4-2 so far in conference play. This team does not give away many freebies at the charity stripe — they rank 11th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. They are also second in the conference by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and they now host a team in the Eagles that is last in the Patriot League by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Army returns home where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.7 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to 37.4% shooting which results in just 59.5 PPG. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. American was a difficult team to gauge entering this season. They only played ten games last year, winning just four times. They only played three different opponents in their nine regular-season games in the skewed Patriot League schedule impacted by COVID. Their best player from that group, Jamir Harris, transferred to Seton Hall. After an opening game overtime victory against a Marist team that ranks 169th in the currently kenpom rankings, they have since not defeated a team ranked higher than 290th using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Eagles are last in the Patriot League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are also last in the conference by making only 28.1% of their shots from behind the arc. They go back on the road where they are just 2-8 this season — and they are getting outscored by -16.5 PPG. They only score 62.7 PPG on the road — and they give up 79.2 PPG on 49.6% shooting. American has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Patriot League Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (1142) minus the points versus the American Eagles (1141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Air Force (653) and Boise State (654). THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-6) has lost two in a row and five of their last six games after their 75-68 loss to Nevada as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Boise State (12-4) has won nine games in a row with their 71-63 win at New Mexico as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom — and they have held their last five opponents to just 39.7% shooting which has translated into just 59.4 Points-Per-Game. But head coach Leon Rice will want a better effort from his team on defense after they allowed New Mexico to make 49.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have given up all season. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread as a favorite. Boise State is also an excellent rebounding team. They have held their last three opponents to no more than 29 rebounds — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 31 boards in three straight games. They held the Lobos to just three offensive rebounds on Saturday — and they have then played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after not allowing more than five offensive rebounds in their last contest. The Broncos rank sixth in the nation by limiting their opponents to pull down just 21.2% of their missed shots. Air Force is simply not going to get many second-chance scoring opportunities tonight — they only rebound 18.8% of their missed shots, ranking 353rd in the nation. But Boise State is a bad shooting team themselves. They make only 60.3% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 355th in the nation. They only nail 32.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 216th in the country. The Broncos have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home with the Total in the 120s. Air Force has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons made only 38.2% of their shots in that game. They have made just 39.3% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in just 53.4 PPG. They go back on the road where they score only 56.9 PPG on 43.6% shooting. Air Force has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 7 straight road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their home games. The Falcons have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Air Force has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boise State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Air Force (653) and Boise State (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET Tuesday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (628) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (627). THE SITUATION: Ole Miss (9-7) has lost two in a row and four of their last five games after their 80-71 loss to Auburn as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Missouri (7-9) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after their 67-64 loss to Texas A&M as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi allowed the Tigers to make 50% of their shots — and that came after Texas A&M made 55.8% of their shots against them in their previous game. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Rebels have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Mississippi has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing four of their last five games. They stay at home where they are 8-2 this season — and they are outscoring their visitors by +10.6 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 41.5% shooting. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Missouri made 47.2% of their shots against the Aggies which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. And by holding Texas A&M to just 38.1% shooting, they enjoyed the best defensive effort in their last seven games. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. Missouri goes back on the road where they are just 1-6 this season while getting outscored by -23.3 PPG. They only make 35.4% of their shots on the road which is resulting in just 56.6 PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 51.0% of their shots. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Mississippi has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Mississippi Rebels (628) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). THE SITUATION: Iowa (11-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped with an 87-78 loss at Wisconsin as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday. Indiana (12-3) won their fifth game in their last six with their 73-60 victory against Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa allowed the Badgers to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Hawkeyes should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road. And while Iowa has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games including the last four of these circumstances. The Hawkeyes are an outstanding offensive team that ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make the most of their scoring opportunities as they lead the nation with the lowest turnover rate in the nation. Iowa also leads the nation with the lowest block rate in the country — and that is a great attribute to have when facing the Hoosiers’ Trayce Jackson-Davis who blocks 10.5% of the shots in his direction this season. Iowa returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +24.2 net Points-Per-Game. The Hawkeyes made 49.5% of his shots at home which generates 93.1 PPG. They also hold their opponents to just 68.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 15-6-3 ATS in their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Big Ten opponent. The Hoosiers preceded their victory against the Golden Gophers with a 67-51 win at home against Ohio State — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning two straight games by double-digits against conference opponents. Indiana is too loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions, ranking 209th in the nation. The Hawkeyes do force turnovers — their opponents turn the ball over in 20.0% of their possessions, ranking 107th in the country. Now the Hoosiers go back on the road for just the fifth time in a true road game. They have lost three of those four games while making just 44.7% of their shots. Indiana is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 60% on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored. 25* CBB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois Salukis (725) and the Missouri State Bears (726). THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (9-5) has won four of their last five games after their 63-60 upset win at Valparaiso as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Missouri State (11-6) and their three-game winning streak end with an 85-84 upset loss at Northern Iowa as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a strong technical situation for the Under. The Salukis have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Southern Illinois nailed 55.6% of their shots from the field in that game — but they are still only making 43.1% of their shots on the road. The Salukis score just 59.7 Points-Per-Game on the road — but they allow only 62.7 PPG in those eight games. Southern Illinois has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Salukis have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Missouri State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bears have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Missouri State allowed the Panthers to make 51.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Bears are second in the Missouri Valley Conference so far this season by holding their conference opponents to just 50.0% shooting inside the arc after four games. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Missouri State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against winning teams. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois Salukis (725) and the Missouri State Bears (726). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (640) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (639). THE SITUATION: Akron (8-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 69-63 upset loss to Ohio as a 1.5-point favorite last Tuesday. Ball State (7-7) has won three of their last four games with their 78-72 upset win at Eastern Michigan as a 1-point underdog on January 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ZIPS MINUS THE POINTS: Akron should rebound with a strong effort. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss. The Zips have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss to a Mid-American Conference opponent. They only made 9 of 17 (52.9%) of their free throws against the Bobcats — but they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after not making at least 53% of their free throws in their last game. Head coach John Groce’s team is not a great shooting team from the charity stripe — they make only 65.4% of their free throws. But Akron is third in the nation in free throw rate with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 44.7%. They should be living at the free-throw line tonight against this Cardinals team that ranks 293rd in the nation in opponent free throw rate. This team is talented — they lost by just one point, 67-66, at Ohio State to begin their season. They stay at home where they are 5-1 with an average winning margin of +14.7 Points-Per-Game. They score a healthy 82.2 PPG at home. The Zips have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games teams with a losing record on the road. Akron has also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 140s. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning four or five of their last six games. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after covering the point spread in at least two in a row. Ball State stays on the road where they are just 2-6 this season with an average losing margin of -13.3 PPG. They only make 42.2% of their shots on the road — and they are allowing their home hosts to score 84.0 PPG on 47.6% shooting. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Akron Zips (640) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (639). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). THE SITUATION: Brown (8-8) has lost four games in a row after their 77-73 upset loss to Pennsylvania as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Harvard (8-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 77-69 win against Howard as a 7-point favorite back on December 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Harvard has had their last three scheduled games postponed because of COVID issues. They face rust concerns taking the court for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, the Crimson have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Harvard plays their fourth straight game at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning their last two games on their home court. This is the Ivy League debut for the Crimson who have played a pretty light schedule that ranks 303rd most difficult according to the metrics at kenpom. They are making only 40.7% of their shots in their last five games — and they have a 43.3% field goal percentage in their seven home games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Crimson will not have the advantage of cheering fans either given the restriction of fans attending games given COVID regulations. Head coach Tommy Amaker recruits well for this team — but Brown head coach Mike Martin has followed his lead by bringing long and athletic talent to his program which makes this team stand out in the league. Led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year (when the Ivy last played in 2019-20) in Jaylen Gainey who protects the rim down low, the Bears ranks 117th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. That defensive ranking is more impressive considering that Brown ranks 110th in strength of schedule at kenpom. The Bears have beaten Bradley on a neutral court while losing to North Carolina by just a 94-87 score (with the score tied going into the final ten minutes of the game) and losing to Colorado by just two points. Brown has also played Creighton, Maryland, Syracuse, and Vermont — this is a battle-tested group. They were without their top playmaker, Tamenang Cho in four early games including the narrow loss in Chapel Hill. Having played three times since Christmas, Martin’s team is in midseason form. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four of their last five games. And while they have played seven straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Brown is 4-6 on the road this season — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: Brown swept the two regular-season games against Harvard in 2019 before the season got canceled because of COVID. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against Ivy League opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (6-5) has lost four of their last six games after their 72-62 loss to Georgia Tech in overtime as a 5-point underdog on December 21st. UT-Arlington (6-7) won their third straight game with their 62-57 victory against Troy as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia State made only 28.2% of their shots against the Yellow Jackets which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. And while the Panthers got outrebounded by a 51-33 margin, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outrebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. Georgia State returns all five starters from the group that lost in the Sun Belt Conference tournament championship game last season. COVID has slowed this team down so far this season but they are mostly healthy now in making their conference debut tonight. They are 4-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by a whopping +39.0 net Points-Per-Game. The Panthers make 48.9% of their shots at home which is generating 88.0 PPG — and they are holding their opponents just 33.8% shooting and 49.0 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Panthers are 25th in the nation by making 38.0% of their 3-point shots — and they nail 39.4% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. UT-Arlington is 250th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 272nd in the nation with their opponents making 37.0% of their shots from 3-point range when playing away from home. The Mavericks played their second-best defensive game of the season by holding the Trojans to 30.0% shooting — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no better than 33% shooting. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing their second game in a seven-day span. They go back on the road for the first time since December 19th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing their last three games on the road. The Mavericks are just 1-6 on the road where they are scoring only 55.1 PPG on 37.3% shooting. They are getting outscored by -16.8 PPG on the road. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State should force plenty of turnovers tonight — they rank 46th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions. UT-Arlington is 324th in the nation by turning the ball over in 22.5% of their possessions — and they have turned it over in 23.1% of their possessions on the road. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (681) and the Michigan State Spartans (682). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (6-8) has lost six of their last seven games after their 87-79 loss in overtime against Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Michigan State (12-2) won their seventh straight game with a 73-67 win at Northwestern as a 3-point favorite on January 2nd.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers have allowed at least 70 points in nine of their fourteen games this season — and they play at the 9th fastest possession length in the nation so they are comfortable playing higher-scoring games under head coach Fred Hoiberg. Nebraska has played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Cornhuskers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation although much of that is by design since Hoiberg wants to sacrifice defensive rebounding for potential fast break scoring chances. They have been out-rebounded by at least eight boards per game in their last three contests — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after being out-rebounded by at least six boards in three straight games. They rank 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.5% of their misses on the offensive — and now they travel to East Lansing to face a Spartans’ team that is 47th in the nation by rebounding 33.8% of their missed shots. Nebraska has allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 85.8 Points-Per-Game. Now the Cornhuskers go back on the road where they are allowing 90.3 PPG. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Nebraska has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total in the 140s. Michigan State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. The Spartans held Northwestern to just 32.3% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But Michigan State only made 38.5% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the lowest mark in their last eight games and the second-lowest field goal percentage all season. Even after that shooting effort, the Spartans have shot 48.6% from the field in their last five games. They rank 15th in the nation by making 38.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are making 40% of their 3-pointers in their three Big Ten games. They should make plenty of 3s against this Cornhuskers defense that ranks 281st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.0% of their 3-pointers — and they are allowing their Big Ten foes to nail 44.3% of their shots from downtown. Five-star freshman Max Christie is finding a rhythm having scored in double-digits in four of his last six games. And head coach Tom Izzo has found an answer at point guard by splitting time between Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard. They return home to the Breslin Center where they are scoring 81.3 PPG on 47.0% shooting. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Spartans’ last 4 games at home — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home against teams with a losing record on the road. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams score at least 75 PPG. Michigan State has played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total when favored by at least 12.5 points. Nebraska has played 30 of their last 45 road games — and 10 of their last 15 road games — Over the Total when an underdog in the 12.5 to 18 point range. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (681) and the Michigan State Spartans (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). THE SITUATION: LSU (12-1) lost their first game of the season in a 70-55 loss at Auburn as a 4.5-point underdog on December 22nd. Kentucky (11-2) has won four games in a row with their 92-48 victory against High Point as a 27-point favorite on December 31st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU should respond with a strong effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. The Tigers played their worst game of the season against Auburn. Their 28.6% shooting percentage was the lowest of the season for them — and the 43.4% mark they allowed those Tigers to hit was actually their worst defensive effort of the year. LSU is the top-rated team in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom. They return home where they are 8-0 this season with an average winning margin of +32.7 Points-Per-Game. They score 84.6 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. They hold their guests to 32.1% shooting and just 51.9 PPG. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games when favored. The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Kentucky shot 59.1% from the field against High Point which was the best shooting mark for them all season. And the 31.1% shooting they allowed was also the best defensive mark for them all year. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning at least three games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Wildcats play their first road game away from home since December 11th. Kentucky is just 1-2 away from home this season — and they allow teams not playing in their Rupp Arena to make 47.1% of their shots. The Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Kentucky does not get to the free-throw line either — they rank 320nd in the nation in free throw rate. Not getting freebies against a team that is so good on defense will be tough.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (8-2) has won two in a row after their 96-52 victory against USC Upstate as a 35.5-point favorite on December 14th. Arizona (11-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 84-60 victory against Cal-Baptist as a 28-point favorite on December 18th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on their home court — and they are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by 20 or more points. This is an outstanding defensive team that ranks second in the nation at kenpom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last four opponents to 36.8% or lower shooting from the field. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after not allowing their two opponents to make no better than 37% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. They have generated 15 and 13 steals in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 home games after registering double-digit steals in two straight games. The Volunteers are 6-0 on their home court with an average winning margin of +32.8 net Points-Per-Game average margin of victory. The conventional wisdom regarding Tennessee is that they struggle against elite defenses. But their two losses this season to Villanova and Texas Tech in overtime were both on neutral courts. They have also beaten North Carolina on a neutral court and Colorado in Boulder. Back home in Knoxville, the Volunteers make 49.1% of their shots and score 87.0 PPG. They also make 41.7% of their shots from 3-point range at home as compared to their 23.2% shooting clip from behind the arc when on the road. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored overall. Arizona held Cal-Baptist to just 33.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game at home where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight games in their last ten contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning at least three straight games. The Wildcats have beaten Illinois on the road in Champagne and Michigan on a neutral court in Las Vegas — but they needed overtime to defeat Wichita State in that same tournament in Vegas the night before beating the Wolverines. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: It has been a surprising start for first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd — but this will be the biggest test for the former Gonzaga assistant who has brought in several transfer players to Tuscon to form an interesting squad. The Wildcats are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (6-2) had their two-game winning streak end in an 81-76 upset loss to Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado State (9-0) remained undefeated this season after their 74-58 win against Saint Mary’s as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Mississippi State probably played their worst game of the season against the Golden Gophers. Their 43.7% shooting percentage was the second-lowest of the year — and the 49.2% shooting mark by Minnesota was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage this season. Head coach Ben Howland should have his team prepared for this contest. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. This team should play well on a neutral court — they pull down 37.6% of their missed shots, ranking 12th best in the nation. Colorado State comes off their biggest win of the season in what was their second straight victory by double-digits. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. And while Colorado State has covered the points spread in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Rams lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.3% fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their shots from behind the arc, the best 3-point shooting percentage in the country. But seven of Colorado State’s nine games have been at home. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Rams go back on the road for just the third time this season. Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their three previous games at home. The Rams have seen their 3-point shooting drop to 40.3% away from home — and now they face this Bulldogs team that holds their opponents to just 31.9% shooting from 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is vulnerable on defense as they rank 104th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court as an underdog. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, Colorado State is 2-5-1 ATS. 25* CBB ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Marquette (7-2) looks to rebound from an 89-76 loss at Wisconsin as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas State (5-2) comes off a 65-59 upset win at Wichita State as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Marquette allowed the Badgers to make 50.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was their worst defensive performance of the season. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games after a double-digit loss on the road. Marquette has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Golden Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Shaka Smart has this team playing like his “Havoc” teams at Virginia Commonwealth at a rapid pace and with a full-court 1-2-2 pressing zone. The Eagles lead the nation by averaging only 14.8 seconds per possession. Smart did not inherit a returning starter from last season — under 20% of the production from last year returned. But he did bring in Darryl Morsell from Maryland after he won the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Award last season. Smart’s Havoc tactics help to compensate for the lack of experience. Marquette has already pulled off upset victories against Illinois, West Virginia, and Mississippi. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Smart’s teams are 41-23-1 ATS in his last 65 road games as an underdog — and his teams have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven games on the road as an underdog going back to last season with Texas. Kansas State appears to be without their leading scorer Nigel Pack who is in the concussion protocol. He is scoring 15.8 Points-Per-Game while nailing 49.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Pack did not play in their upset win against the Shockers - but they only made 33.9% of their shots in the win. The Wildcats hosts this game at Bramage Coliseum — but the home fans are not quite as rowdy in non-conference games in December as they will be once the Big 12 schedule begins. As it is, Kansas State is just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 home games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying up to six points. Kansas State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Marquette should have an edge at the charity stripe tonight. The Golden Eagles rank 15th in the nation in free throw rate — and Kansas State is 227th in defensive free throw rate in putting their opponent on the line. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (883) and the UAB Blazers (884) in the Finals of the Las Vegas Invitational. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-0) won their opening round game in this holiday tournament with a 71-61 victory as a 13-point favorite last night. UAB (5-1) comes off an 86-73 victory against New Mexico as an 11-point favorite last night in this event. This tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. San Francisco has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row. San Francisco is tough on the defensive glass — they rank 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 20% of their missed shots. Head coach Bob McKillop has his team play tough defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting which is resulting in only 62.6 Points-Per-Game. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. UAB has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. After losing at South Carolina, the Blazers have won and covered the point spread in two straight games. UAB has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row — and they have played 10 straight Unders after covering the point spread in their last two games. And while the Blazers have scored 86 points in each of their last two games after being held to 63 points in their loss to the Gamecocks, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. They are averaging 86.7 PPG on 48.7% shooting this season — but in their two games away from home, that productivity drops to 74.5 PPG on 42.1% shooting. UAB has held their last five opponents to 62.4 PPG on 41.1% shooting. They are 31st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 42.3% shooting inside the arc — and the Dons have been living inside with a 61.8% shooting mark for their 2-point shots which is fourth-best in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-1-1 in the Blazers’ last 8 games as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a dog getting up to three points. San Francisco is scoring 79.9 PPG — but this is just their second game away from home after scoring 71 points last night in Vegas. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Las Vegas Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (883) and the UAB Blazers (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617) in the Finals of the Empire Classic tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-0) has opened the season with five straight victories after their 75-62 victory against Bellarmine last night in their opening game in this two-day tournament. Gonzaga (5-0) has won five games in a row to open the season with their 107-54 win against Central Michigan as a 34-point favorite last night in their first game in this event. The Empire Classic takes place on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA continues to be undervalued by the market after their improbable run to the Final Four last season. The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some shooting luck in the NCAA Tournament — but shooting luck did not account for them going blow-for-blow with that loaded Gonzaga team in the National Semifinals. UCLA improved as the season went on under second-year head coach Mick Cronin teaching his defensive principles in a season marred by COVID. The Bruins return three players that are on the preseason Wooden Award watch list in Johnny Juzang (who single-handedly beat Michigan in the Elite Eight), Tyger Campbell (started every game at point guard for Cronin at UCLA), and Jamie Jaquez, Jr. (last year’s second-leading scorer). Cronin won’t have big man Cody Riley tonight as he recovers from an MCL injury — but he brought in Myles Johnson as a transfer from Rutgers with his seven-foot-seven wingspan. He was 19th in the nation last year in block rate. Peyton Watson is a top-ten recruit who also gets added into the mix of a group that has 91% of the returning minutes back from the Final Four team. This is a loaded group that continues to improve under Cronin. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. UCLA only made 45.2% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort for them so far this season — and the 45.1% shooting they allowed last night was the second-highest of the year. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss after failing to cover the 22.5-point spread last night. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Gonzaga held the Chippewas to just 30.4% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort of the season. After a 12-point win against Texas in their second game of the year, the Bulldogs have won their next three games by at least 27 points — but that was against a Bellarmine team ranked 188th in the nation in KenPom’s rankings. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning three in a row by at least 15 points. They have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after only failing to cover the point spread once in their last four games. And while they have scored at least 84 points in each of their games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games. Gonzaga’s stiffest competition was against a Texas team under new coach Chris Beard coaching a group of high-profile transfers. That Longhorns team is a few months away from successfully executing Beard’s no-middle defense that attempts to trap the ball to one side of the court. Gambling on that guess was pure guesswork early in the season (which is why I tend to embrace caution in the November CBB games — especially with the transfer market now even busier in the offseason). What was telling in that game, for me, was that the Zag’s 7’0 freshman phenom Chet Holmgren made just one of three shots for 2 points. I think it remains to be seen if he is a good fit when playing on the floor with the 6’10 Drew Timme. The twin towers look is not as successful for modern basketball — and Holmgren’s ability to defend the perimeter is an issue (and it is not a strength for Timme).  Gonzaga should be great once again this year — but this group is a work in progress for head coach Mark Few after losing a top-five pick in Jalen Suggs along with two other starters in outside shooter Corey Krispert and a glue guy in Joel Ayayi.

FINAL TAKE: UCLA’s victory over Villanova this season is more impressive than Gonzaga’s win over the Longhorns. Cronin will have his team very motivated to avenge their 93-90 loss to the Bulldogs in the Final Four last year — and he has had all the off-season to scheme a defensive play against Timme. The Bruins are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (888) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (887). THE SITUATION: UCLA (1-0) opened their season with a 95-58 victory against Cal-State Bakersfield as a 23-point favorite on Tuesday. Villanova (1-0) began their campaign with a 91-51 victory against Mount St. Mary’s as a 25.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINT(S): UCLA is being undervalued by the market after their improbable run to the Final Four last season. The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some shooting luck in the NCAA Tournament — but shooting luck did not account for them going blow-for-blow with that loaded Gonzaga team in the National Semifinals. UCLA improved as the season went on under second-year head coach Mick Cronin teaching his defensive principles in a season marred by COVID. The Bruins return three players that are on the preseason Wooden Award watch list in Johnny Juzang (who single-handedly beat Michigan in the Elite Eight), Tyger Campbell (started every game at point guard for Cronin at UCLA), and Jamie Jaquez, Jr. (last year’s second-leading scorer). Cronin won’t have big man Cody Riley tonight as he recovers from an MCL injury — but he brought in Myles Johnson as a transfer from Rutgers with his seven-foot-seven wingspan. He was 19th in the nation last year in block rate. Peyton Watson is a top-ten recruit who also gets added into the mix of a group that has 91% of the returning minutes back from the Final Four team. This is a loaded group that continues to improve under Cronin. They get to host this game at Pauley Pavilion where they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games. The Bruins are also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread win. This is a very tough spot for head coach Jay Wright’s team to travel across the country early in the season to then play when their body clocks tell them it is 11:30 PM ET. The Wildcats return Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels who are great college basketball players — but Wright is not bringing in the NBA talent that he was just a few years ago. Four starters return from the group that lost to Baylor in the Sweet 16. But Wright is replacing Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who was the lynchpin of what was an otherwise suspect team on defense — he was drafted by the Oklahoma City Thunder early in the second round of the NBA draft. Villanova tends to live-by-the-tree but die-by-the-three — they nailed 53% of their 3-pointers on Tuesday. Defending the arc will be a point of emphasis for Cronin after allowing Cal-State Bakersfield to make 41% of their 3-pointers. The Bruins held their opponents to 33.7% of the shots from downtown last season.

FINAL TAKE: Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. UCLA is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB Villanova-UCLA ESPN2 Special with the UCLA Bruins (888) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (887). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baylor Bears (811) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). THE SITUATION: Baylor (27-2) has won five straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 78-59 win against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (31-0) survived overtime in a 93-90 buzzer-beating win against UCLA as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Baylor tends to play higher-scoring games because they emphasize shot volume. They are sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.9% of their missed shots. They are also third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponent’s possessions. But as they demonstrated against the stout Cougars defense that went into the Final Four with the nation’s top statistical defense in terms of effective field goal percentage, Baylor makes their shots more often than not. The Bears shot 52.7% from the field against Houston — including making 11 of 24 (45.8%) from behind the arc. Baylor leads the nation by making 41.2% of their 3-pointers. Now they play a Gonzaga team much worse than the Cougars’ statistically in half-court defense. The Bulldogs allowed the Bruins to make 57.6% of their shots — and the Zags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Gonzaga ranks only 55th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. The Bears have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total on a neutral court. And in their last 27 games as an underdog, Baylor has played 20 of these games Over the Total. Gonzaga has played 37 of their last 55 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Zags have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Bulldogs have also played 28 of their last 43 games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last contest. Gonzaga has scored at least 83 points in six straight games. The Zags lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.1%. Baylor does not play elite-level half-court defense either — they rank 113th nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.7% while ranking outside the top-100 in both 2-point and 3-point shooting defense. The Bulldogs want to play fast under head coach Mark Few. They average just 14.3 seconds-per-possession which is the third quickest in the nation. Baylor is likely to be quite comfortable racing with the Zags as well with their four guards in the starting lineup. The Bears forego defensive rebounding for getting out in transition in fast breaks. Baylor allows their opponents to pull down 30.9% of their missed shots, ranking 280th in the nation. This means more second-chance scoring opportunities for Gonzaga who pull down a respectable 30.4% of their missed shots. This also means the Bears attempting to score fast in the 70% or so times they pull down the missed shot. This game should be up-and-down the court. The Bulldogs have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 39 of their last 57 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are familiar with Lucas Oil Stadium after playing there in the Final Four. Baylor should enter this game very confident after shooting 52.7% from the field while nailing 11 of 24 from downtown. And while Gonzaga made 58.7% of their shots on Saturday, I expect them to shoot better from behind the arc than their 7 of 21 effort against UCLA. I was less aggressive with Under plays during this Big Dance (unfortunately, in hindsight) because I assessed that teams would shoot better without big crowds in the arenas. The limited crowd will have little impact on the game tonight — I expect both these high-scoring teams to shoot well in this familiar environment. 10* CBB Monday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baylor Bears (811) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (811) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). THE SITUATION: Baylor (27-2) has won five straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 78-59 win against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (31-0) survived overtime in a 93-90 buzzer-beating win against UCLA as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: In assessing this potential National Championship matchup for the last few months, I presumed I would take Baylor plus the points in a matchup between two teams that I considered roughly even. The events from Saturday make the Bears’ play a bit better. Gonzaga having to expend more physical and emotional energy by playing an extra five minutes against the Bruins. This game with UCLA also continued to expose some flaws with this, albeit, great Bulldogs’ team. Their half-court defense is not elite. They allowed the Bruins to make 57.6% of their shots — and the Zags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Gonzaga ranks only 55th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. The Bulldogs were also a bit loose at times with the basketball — taking ill-advised chances — which might be the result of a team that has become overconfident from winning all their games. There is a reason that the last team to finish a season undefeated was during the Jimmy Carter Administration (granted, his last year in office). And the flip-side of this coin is that overconfidence can suddenly become insecurity when threatened. The pressure of making history make become a factor for Gonzaga. It is one thing for Jalen Suggs to make an improbable from 35-feet when the game is tied— it is another to make winning shots when missing the shot risks infamy for the shooter. As it is, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. And while the Zags had covered the point spread in their previous four games before not coming close to covering the point spread against UCLA, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Baylor should build off their momentum from their easy victory against a good Houston team. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a win by at least 10 points. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road when playing their second game in three days. What I like about this Bears team is that they have multiple ways to create more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They are sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.9% of their missed shots. They are also third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponent’s possessions. But as they demonstrated against the stout Cougars defense that went into the Final Four with the nation’s top statistical defense in terms of effective field goal percentage, Baylor makes their shots more often than not. The Bears shot 52.7% from the field against Houston — including making 11 of 24 (45.8%) from behind the arc. Baylor leads the nation by making 41.2% of their 3-pointers. Leading the nation in 3s, while ranking top-six in offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers is a great formula for winning a National Championship. The Bears are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games under head coach Mark Few.

FINAL TAKE: I think the laptops may actually be undervaluing this Baylor team -- their three-week COVID pause took them a few weeks to recover and get back to playing in their earlier form. This Bears team is playing much better in April than they were in February. And this group will likely have a chip on their shoulder installed as an underdog for the first time all season. Baylor has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games as an underdog under Drew. 25* CBB Game of the Year on the Baylor Bears (811) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:34 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). THE SITUATION: UCLA (22-9) won their fifth straight game in this Big Dance with their 51-49 upset win against Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Gonzaga (30-0) reached the Final Four on Tuesday with their 85-66 win against USC as a 12-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bruins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while UCLA has covered the points spread in all five of their NCAA Tournament games, they have then played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. Head coach Mick Cronin is going to do everything he can to keep this game in the 60s. His formula for success to pull upsets against Alabama and Michigan was to slow the games down and have his team take their chances in the final ten minutes of the second half. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. And while the Bulldogs are outscoring their opponents by +23.1 PPG, Gonzaga has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG. The Bulldogs have won all four of their games in this Big Dance by at least 16 points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three in a row by at least 15 points. And while Gonzaga has scored at least 83 points in five straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in four straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — UCLA has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. Even if the Bulldogs have a comfortable lead in the second half, head coach Mark Few will want to conserve the energy of his players for the National Championship Game on Monday. 10* CBB UCLA-Gonzaga CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:34 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (30-0) reached the Final Four on Tuesday with their 85-66 win against USC as a 12-point favorite. UCLA (22-9) won their fifth straight game in this Big Dance with their 51-49 upset win against Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Gonzaga has won all four of their NCAA Tournament games by at least 16 points — and they should continue to roll against the Bruins. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in all four of their games in the Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Bulldogs made 50% of their shots against USC after they made 59.6% of their shots against Creighton — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. UCLA may be due for a letdown after pulling off their second straight upset victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five games in a row. The Bruins have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. UCLA only had 12 team assists against the Wolverines after generating only 12 team assists against Alabama in their previous game. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not generating more than 12 team assists in two straight games. The Bruins too often have resorted to Johnny Juzang playing “hero ball” to bail them out. The lack of ball movement will get them burned against Gonzaga. Frankly, UCLA has been pretty fortunate to make it this far in this Big Dance. They survived overtime against Michigan State and Alabama. Michigan had many opportunities to score a final basket to either force overtime or win the game in regulation. The Wolverines made only 6 of their 11 free throws. The Crimson Tide made just 11 of their 25 free throws. In their Round of 64 game against BYU, the Cougars made only 9 of 16 free throws. None of their five opponents have shot better than 33% from 3-point land — Michigan was 3 of 11 (27.2%), Alabama was 7 of 28 (25%), Abilene Christian was 4 of 19 (21.0%), BYU was 3 of 19 (15.8%), Michigan State was 6 of 18 (33%). Now UCLA faces a confident Gonzaga team that makes 37.1% of their 3-pointers.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in all 4 games in this NCAA Tournament. UCLA is due for a letdown and have been fortunate to survive — while the Zags are a machine. 25* CBB Final Four Game of the Year with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:14 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). THE SITUATION: Houston (28-3) won their 11th straight game on Monday with their 67-61 win against Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Baylor (26-2) won their fourth straight game with their 81-72 victory against Arkansas as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston has only played one team this season ranked in the top-20 by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy — that was Texas Tech back on November 29th. But the Cougars did defeat the Red Raiders by a 64-53 score. Baylor played Texas Tech twice this season — they beat them twice by 8 and 15 point margins. The laptops project this to be a 1-point game with one of the systems I track protecting Houston as the small favorite (Pomeroy has Baylor by 1-point). I think the market is wrong — the Bears have been a public team all season, and bettors are backing Baylor against this Cougars team from the unheralded American Athletic Conference. Houston should relish in their role as the underdog for the first time since that November game against the Red Raiders. They should shoot better than 32.3% of their shots as they did against the Beavers which was the lowest shooting mark of the season for them. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after a point spread loss. Houston’s defense should keep them competitive in this game. They have held their last five opponents — all NCAA Tournament teams — to 55.4 PPG on a 36.3% field goal percentage. The Cougars lead the nation with an opponent effective field goal percentage of 43.3% while ranking in the top-11 in 2-point and 3-point defense. Baylor outlasted the Razorbacks while making 48.4% of their shots which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. The Bears have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering at least three of the last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after winning at least 18 of their last 20 games. Baylor also allowed Arkansas to make 48.1% of their shots which resurrected concerns about the play of their defense that took a step or two back in February after their three-week pause because of COVID. Teams can shoot on the Bears — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.9% which is just 120th in the nation. 

FINAL TAKE: It strikes me how similar both these teams are. They both are top-seven in the nation in offensive rebounding. Houston is second nationally by pulling down 39.8% of their missed — and Baylor allows their opponents to rebound 30.6% of their misses. Both force turnovers in at least 21.3% of their opponent’s possessions. While the Bears lead the nation in 3-point shooting, the Cougars are 11th in opponent’s 3-point shooting defense. This is going to be a tough matchup for a Baylor team that is supposed to be awaiting coronation for a championship game date with Gonzaga on Monday. Houston has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog on a neutral court. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Houston Cougars (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:14 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (801) and the Baylor Bears (802). THE SITUATION: Houston (28-3) won their 11th straight game on Monday with their 67-61 win against Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Baylor (26-2) won their fourth straight game with their 81-72 victory against Arkansas as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars allowed the Beavers to make 46.8% of their shots on Monday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Houston has still held their last five opponents — all teams either in or made the NCAA Tournament — to just 36.3% shooting which has translated into 55.4 PPG. The Cougars 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Houston has not allowed more than 61 points in five straight games — and they have played 36 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least two straight games. Head coach Kelvin Sampson will have his team play outstanding half-court defense. They lead the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.3%. The Cougars hold their opponents to just 29.2% shooting from behind the arc and 42.9% inside the arc — those marks rank 11th and fifth in the nation. But shooting could be an issue for Sampson. They only made 32.3% of their shots against Oregon State — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not shooting better than 33% from the field. While Houston enjoyed a 17-point lead early in the second half, they only made 29% of their shots. Now the Cougars will be playing the best defense they have encountered all season. The best team Houston has played all season is Texas Tech — and they only rank 20th nationally by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy. The Cougars have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Baylor made 48.4% of their shots against the Razorbacks which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They raced out to a 46-28 lead in the first half on Tuesday — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. The Bears did allow Arkansas to make 48.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven contests. Scott Drew’s team had struggled with their defense after a three-week hiatus due to a COVID outbreak — but they have been in top form again in the Big Dance. Baylor held their three previous NCAA Tournament teams to just 41.3% shooting and 56.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Sampson will likely play this game at a very slow pace — as it is, Houston averages 19.3 seconds-per-possession which is the 331st slowest pace in the nation. Baylor was lulled into a low-scoring game with Villanova — in their 62-51 win over the Wildcats in the Sweet 16, there were only 57 possessions in that game. The Under is 13-6-1 in the Cougars’ last 20 games on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight Unders when an underdog on a neutral court. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (801) and the Baylor Bears (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (659) and the Michigan Wolverines (660). THE SITUATION: UCLA (21-9) won their fourth game in this Big Dance with their 88-78 win in overtime against Alabama as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Michigan (23-4) has won four of their last five games after their 76-58 win against Florida State as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bruins have covered the point spread in all four of their Big Dance games — and they have then played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after they covered the point spread in four straight games. Their Sweet 16 game finished Over the Total only because of overtime — the score was tied at 65 at the end of regulation — and they have played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. There were times in their game with the Crimson Tide where they were stagnant on offense. They got back in the game when Alabama started taking them for granted. My “eye test” thinks Michigan will be a bit more disciplined with their half-court defense in stifling the UCLA attack. Now they play a Michigan team that has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39.3% — and the Bruins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 42%. The Wolverines make 48.5% of their shots including a 38.3% mark from behind the arc — and not only has UCLA played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who are making at least 45% of their shots, but they have also played 4 straight Unders against teams who make at least 37% of their 3-pointers. Michigan has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Wolverines have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Michigan has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 9-4-1 in the Wolverines’ last 14 games in the NCAA Tournament — and UCLA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (659) and the Michigan Wolverines (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (660) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (659). THE SITUATION: Michigan (23-4) has won four of their last five games after their 76-58 win against Florida State as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. UCLA (21-9) won their fourth game in this Big Dance with their 88-78 win in overtime against Alabama as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan held the Seminoles to just 40% shooting — and that was the highest opponent field goal percentage against them so far in this Big Dance. The Wolverines are an outstanding defensive team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They held Florida State to under 60 points for the first time all season. Michigan also had their offense clicking by making 49.2% of their shots against a tough Seminoles’ defense whose length was supposed to overwhelm the Wolverines. Juwan Howard has this team operating an NBA-style offense with pick-and-rolls designed to create mismatches and open players. Everyone in the rotation is a competent scorer. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. The Wolverines are averaging 81.7 PPG in this tournament with the 76 points against Florida State being their lowest scoring output. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The loss of Isaiah Livers has been absorbed by several players on this team. Brandon Johns took his spot in the starting lineup — he scored 14 points with six rebounds on Sunday. Johns gives the team more of a post-up presence alongside freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson as opposed to Livers who thrived on the perimeter as a slasher and 3-point shooter. He is averaging 10.7 PPG in this tournament. Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown is getting more playing time with Livers on the shelf — and he has scored 33 points in the last two games. Michigan has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when favored. UCLA scored 23 points in the overtime session to smother the Crimson Tide in overtime on Sunday — but that additional energy may come back to haunt them on short rest for this game. Head coach Mick Cronin has survived this season despite losing his best player, Chris Smith, to a season-ending injury in late December. And forward Jalen Hill did not make the trip to the bubble with this team which further depleted the depth of this team. The Bruins have played one extra game in this tournament with their play-in game First Four victory against Michigan State in another overtime game. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while UCLA has allowed only 29 and 21 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. The Bruins are playing better on defense after a bad first half against the Spartans — but this is still an area of weakness. While UCLA ranks 54 in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 92nd in that metric when playing on the road. They allow their opponents to make 49.1% of their shots inside the arc away from Pauley Pavilion, ranking 155th in the nation. Overall, the Bruins rank 13th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they fall to 31st in that metric on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan is one of three teams — joining Gonzaga and Baylor — who rank in the top ten in both Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UCLA is outside the top ten in both categories. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court as an underdog in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Michigan has covered the point spread in 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games on a neutral court — and they are 13-4-2 ATS in their last 19 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. 25* CBB TBS-TV Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (660) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (659). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (657) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). THE SITUATION: USC (25-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 82-68 win against Oregon as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Gonzaga (29-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-65 win against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: USC should enter this game with confidence — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a double-digit victory. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. While they held the Ducks to just 37.7% shooting, that was the highest field goal percentage that USC has allowed in this tournament. Andy Enfield’s team has held their last five opponents to just 36.1% shooting. With the 7’0 freshman Evan Mobley patrolling the middle, the Trojans’ defense can help them be a Giant Killer tonight. USC leads the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.5% shooting inside the arc. The Trojans are red-hot with their shooting as well — they have shot at least 50% from the field in four straight games. They have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after making at least 47% of their shots in four straight games. USC has two other characteristics of successful Giant Killers. First, they can make 3-pointers. The Trojans hit 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 60th nationally. Second, they get second-chance scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. USC is 12th in the nation by rebounding 35.4% of their missed shots. Gonzaga made 59.6% of their shots on Sunday in their win against the Bluejays which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. The Bulldogs are rolling — but the personality of the team suggests they are due for a letdown while perhaps being a bit overvalued by the betting public. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in all three of the tournament games, winning all three by at least 16 points. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning three in a row by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their four games this season after going at least 3-1 ATS in a fora-game stretch. And while Gonzaga has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of the last 10 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Zags have scored at least 83 points in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: USC took some time to gel — but with four transfer players along with the freshman Mobley, they are peaking at the right time. USC has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games played on a neutral court. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the USC Trojans (657) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (657) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). THE SITUATION: USC (25-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 82-68 win against Oregon as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Gonzaga (29-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-65 win against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: What convinced me that this situation was worthy of a 10* investment on the Over is when confirming Gonzaga’s effectiveness against zone defenses. Andy Enfield is likely to deploy the funky zone they have used at key times in this Big Dance. Yet the Zags average 1.313 Points-Per-Possession against zone defenses which is the second-highest mark. The top PPP against zone defenses is Cal-Baptist. USC played Cal-Baptist to open the season — they won 95-87 in overtime. Most importantly, the score was 79-79 after regulation — so that combined score was right around our number (and I have higher expectations for Gonzaga tonight). The Bulldogs are a juggernaut on offense who leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while averaging 91.8 PPG — and they are third in the nation in pace. They are averaging 89.3 PPG in the Big Dance. They have covered the point spread in all three of their NCAA Tournament games — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while the Zags have scored at least 83 points in four straight games, they have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last two games. Gonzaga has also played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. The Bulldogs are not elite in half-court defense either — their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.2% is a solid 47th in the nation, but not impenetrable when talking about the final eight teams in the nation. USC has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit win over a Pac-12 opponent — the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Trojans have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. USC is red-hot with their shooting as well — they have shot at least 50% from the field in four straight games. They “dropped” to a 48.3% shooting percentage five games ago — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Trojans’ last 5 games on a neutral court. Gonzaga has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB USC-Gonzaga TBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (657) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (654) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (653). THE SITUATION: Baylor (25-2) has won seven of their last eight games with their 62-51 win against Villanova as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (25-6) has won three in a row with their 72-70 victory against Oral Roberts as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Baylor endured an outlier performance with their 3-point shooting on Saturday. Despite being (now) second in the nation with a 40.8% shooting percentage from the 3-point range this season, the Bears only made 3 of 19 (15.8%) shots from behind the arc against the Wildcats. Davion Mitchell missed all three of his shots from 3-point range despite entering the game as a 46% shooter from 3-point land. Jared Butler missed eight of his nine shots from behind the arc despite being a 39.9% shooter from distance. Don’t be surprised if Baylor ignites from behind the arc tonight. What is so impressive about this team is that they pulled away to win (and cover the point spread) anyways. Scott Drew had his team bypass 3-point shooting for scoring in the paint in the second half against the Villanova zone defenses — and they shot 53% in the final 20 minutes of the game. Even if the Bears’ 3s are not falling, they thrive in getting second-chance opportunities — they rank sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots. They also generate more scoring chances by forcing turnovers — they rank third in the nation in forcing turnovers in 24.8% of their opponent’s possessions. And Baylor plays stifling half-court defense that was on full display against the Wildcats as they held them to just 37.5% shooting in the second half with them missing all nine of their 3-point attempts. Throw away any remaining concerns about the Bears’ defense that struggled after a three-week COVID pause in February: Baylor has held their three opponents in this tournament to just 56.3 PPG on 41.3% shooting. This is a great sign for this team as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Bears have not allowed more than 63 points in this Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. Baylor has won all three of their NCAA Tournament games by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least three in a row by 10 or more points. And in their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days, the Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Arkansas once again skirted danger by falling behind by double-digits against the Golden Eagles before rallying for the win. The Razorbacks cannot afford to do that for the fourth straight time against this Baylor team — the Bears will start hitting more 3s and the lead will be 20. Arkansas was able to pull away from Colgate, but they survived two-point victories against Texas Tech and then Oral Roberts on Saturday. But the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row by three points or less. And in their last 10 games after winning three in a row, Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games. The Razorbacks rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home, but they fall to 39th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. Let’s put a microscope on that. Arkansas has the eighth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, but they fall to 43rd in that metric on the road. Looking even closer, while the Razorbacks held their opponents to just 27.9% shooting from behind the arc at home, ranking 31st in the nation, their opponents make 39.1% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 317th nationally. Baylor is the wrong opponent for them playing outside Fayetteville. And while Arkansas wants to force turnovers with their full-court press, the Bears’ four-guard lineup only turns the ball over in 16.2% of their possessions away from Waco, ranking 42nd nationally. The Razorbacks only make 32.6% of their 3-pointers away from home, ranking 187th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Baylor has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Elite 8 Game of the Year with the Baylor Bears (654) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (656) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (655). THE SITUATION: Houston (27-3) won their tenth straight game with their 62-46 victory against Syracuse as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon State (20-12) has won nine of their last ten games after their 65-58 upset win against Loyola-Chicago as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston easily defeated the Orange despite making only 38.3% of their shots from the field and just 7 of their 26 shots from behind the arc.

At 9:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (644) minus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (643). THE SITUATION: USC (24-7) has won five of their last six games after their 85-51 win against Kansas as a 1-point favorite last Monday night. Oregon (21-6) has won seven of their last eight games after their 95-80 upset win against Iowa as a 5-point underdog on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this USC team — metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks them 6th in the nation. It starts on defense where the Trojans lead the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.4% shooting inside the arc. Head coach Andy Enfield has length that makes it difficult on opposing shooters. Evan Mobley is a rising star — the 7’0 freshman center patrols the paint and helps USC block 13.6% of their opponent’s shots, 18th best in the nation. The Trojans should build off the momentum of their 34-point win against the Jayhawks as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a double-digit win. USC made 57.1% of their shots against what had been an improving Kansas defense. That was the third straight game that the Trojans made at least 50% of their shots — and it was the fourth time over a six-game stretch where they shot at least 50% from the field while never shooting less than 47.2% during that span. The personality of this team suggests they will continue to build off this success. USC has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after shooting at least 47% from the field in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games. And while the Trojans nailed 11 of their 18 shots from 3-point land against the Jayhawks, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after shooting at least 50% from 3-point range in their last game. Oregon probably pulled off the best win of their season by upsetting the Hawkeyes last week. We had the Ducks in that game after benefitting from getting a bye from not playing a VCU team that has to cancel because of COVID protocols. Those turn of events not only kept the Oregon players rested but it allowed for the coaching staff to get a jump on preparing for Iowa rather than decompressing from a Saturday night game. Oregon versus VCU was my favorite situation from the Round of 64 — so I feel robbed that we didn’t get the chance to profit from it. And that sentiment should demonstrate that I like this Ducks team — just not in this spot. Oregon has won twelve of their last fourteen games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning at least twelve of their last fifteen games. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Oregon is not a great defensive team. They rank 60th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they plummet to 103rd nationally in defense when playing on the road. Head coach Dana Altman deploys several zone defenses that can be tricky to adjust to for those opponents unfamiliar with them — but that will not be the case against this USC team. Half-court defense is a particulate concern — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.1% which is 238th in the nation. Oregon is also reliant on 3-point shooting — they are 14th in the nation by converting 38.2% of their 3-pointers. The Ducks may become reliant on their 3s against the stout Trojans’ interior defense. But while Oregon averages 22 shots from distance per game, USC has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams who average at least 21 shots from 3-point range per game. The Ducks outscore their opponents by +7.3 PPG as well — but the Trojans have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after 15 games into the season against teams who outscore their opponents by at least +4.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored on a neutral court. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (644) minus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (645) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (646). THE SITUATION: UCLA (20-9) won their third straight game in the Big Dance with their 67-47 victory against Abilene Christian as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Alabama (26-6) has won eight in a row after their 96-77 win against Maryland as a 6-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is contrarian play — going against an Alabama team off an outlier performance against a UCLA team that appears to be a bit undervalued. The odds have been pushed up to the Crimson Tide laying 7 points in many spots despite the laptops projecting around a four-point spread. That’s just a guide for me — but getting close to a field goal of value for a single-digit underdog in the Big Dance is always intriguing. Alabama made 53% of their shots against the Terrapins which was the best shooting performance in their last ten games. They also made 16 of 33 shots from behind the arc — despite shooting only 31.1% of their 3-pointers in their previous nine games combined. It is more likely that the Tide shoot closer to the number they have been in their previous nine games. The Crimson Tide have outrebounded their last three opponents by at least 7 boards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least 6.0 RPG. Alabama will not own the boards against UCLA as they have in their last three games — the Bruins led the Pac-12 by holding their opponents to rebounding only 24.5% of their missed shots. UCLA has improved their play on defense after a rough opening half against Michigan State in the play-in (ruining our Under). The Bruins held Abilene Christian to just 29.8% shooting while keeping them at just 47 points. UCLA has covered all three of their NCAA Tournament games which is a good sign for them tonight since they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. The Bruins are also 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point spread win. Head coach Mick Cronin will need to slow this game down to get Alabama out of their rhythm — and that is his preferred style given his years of overseeing a grinding style as the coach of Cincinnati. This team has more offensive threats than his Bearcats’ teams — UCLA is making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this Big Dance.

FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral court with the number in the 145 to 149.5 point range. If the Tide shoots 50% from 3-point land again, it will be a rout — but that is true for any team left in the tournament. The problem with launching so many 3s as Nate Oats’ team is that when the pressure mounts, the 3s start clanking more and more off the rim. I am reminded of the Houston Rockets missing 27 straight 3-pointers in a Game Seven against Golden State in the NBA — and they had James Harden. 10* CBB UCLA-Alabama TBS-TV Special with the UCLA Bruins (645) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (628) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (627). THE SITUATION: Michigan (22-4) advanced to the Sweet 16 with their gritty 86-78 victory against LSU as a 5-point favorite last Monday. Florida State (18-6) has won three of their last four games after their 71-53 upset win against Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was resilient to take the Tigers’ best punch but still rally from a 9-point deficit to defeat an LSU team that is loaded with talent and playing at a high level. Juwan Howard displayed his coaching acumen making many in-game adjustments that changed the momentum. And the Wolverines had several role players step up to make big shots. The loss of Isaiah Livers has been absorbed by several players. Eli Brooks led the team with 21 points with the senior making several clutch baskets. Transfer Chaundee Brown is getting more playing time with Livers on the shelf — he responded with 21 points himself. Michigan has played worse this season in the times when Brooks has been hurt rather than Livers — his role on the team is more vital this season given the emergence of freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson at center. Brandon Johns took Livers' spot in the starting lineup — he had a solid 7 points with 5 rebounds in 27 minutes. Johns is a former five-star recruit under John Beilein who can create his own shot as more of a post-up player than Livers. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. The offense was clicking even without Livers with the Wolverines making 53.8% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Wolverines scored 82 points in their opening-round game against Texas Southern — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. Only Gonzaga, Baylor, and Michigan rank inside the top-ten in Adjusted Efficiency in both offense and defense. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when favored. I take a backseat to no one in my respect for Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton. We had them in their upset in against Colorado — but that was likely an outlier performance. The Seminoles made 52.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But Michigan may be catching Florida State at the right time. This is the best 3-point shooting team in Hamilton’s tenure at Florida State — but they have hit only 6 of their 26 shots (23.0%) 3-pointers in the Big Dance which may be a harbinger of things to come under tournament pressure facing elite defenses. As it is, the Seminoles are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Florida State has flexed their muscles on defense by holding their first two opponents to 53.5 PPG in the Big Dance. But the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after not allowing their last two opponents to score more than 55 points. Florida State has balanced scoring and a deep bench — but I am not sure they have a reliable go-to scorer in the half-court when they need a basket. The Seminoles rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they fall to 31st in that metric when playing on the road. And while their length on defense will disrupt Michigan, they lack a post-defender who can handle Dickinson down low. The 7-footer will likely be a difference-maker in this game — especially on the boards. The Seminoles allow their opponents to pull down 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 296th nationally. Florida State is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan is 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games played on a neutral court — and they are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Florida State is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (628) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (649) and the Colorado State Rams (650). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (23-8) lost in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament in an 84-62 upset loss to Mississippi State as a 1.5-point favorite yesterday. Colorado State (20-7) lost to Memphis yesterday by a 90-67 score as a 4.5-point underdog. This third-place consolation game is being played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs allowed the Mississippi State Bulldogs to make 55.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. That mark was far above their opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.2% for the season. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While Louisiana Tech ranks 77th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to ranking 30th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. However, the Bulldogs rank just 219th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road as compared to their 96th rank in that metric when at home. The Under is 8-1-2 in Louisiana Tech’s last 11 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Colorado State allowed Memphis to make 55.7% of their shots yesterday which was the worst defensive performance in their last 19 games. They caught a red-hot Memphis team who could not miss in the second half yesterday (one of the reasons I passed on the Tigers today). The Rams have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, Colorado State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While the Rams rank 67th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 112th in offense when playing on the road. Colorado State has played 40 of their last 59 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. The Rams have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral court. Louisiana Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games on a neutral court Under the Total when an underdog. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (649) and the Colorado State Rams (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:55 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (648) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (647). THE SITUATION: Houston (26-3) has won nine straight games after their 63-60 win against Rutgers as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Syracuse (18-9) has won five of their last six games after their 75-72 win against West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Field House in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston point guard Dejon Jarreau is dealing with a hip injury — but he practiced on Thursday, and he has been upgraded to probable to play in this game. I am expecting Jarreau to be around 75% effective. The Cougars should play well tonight after dodging a bullet against the Scarlet Knights. Houston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a point spread loss. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite — and this includes them covering the point spread in all six of these situations this season. Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the Orange have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least six straight games. Additionally, while Syracuse has been outshot by 20 and 18 shots in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after getting outshot by at least 20 attempts in two straight games. The Orange get dominated on the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 34.2% of their missed shots, ranking 340th in the nation. North Carolina rebounded 53.3% and 56.5% of their missed shots in their two games against the Orange. Granted, the Tar Heels are the number one team in the nation in offensive rebounding — but the Cougars are the second-best team in the country by rebounding 39.9% of their misses. Syracuse’s plan is to make 3-pointers — they have averaged 11.5 made 3-pointers per game in their last six contests. They have made 15 and 14 shots from behind the arc in their previous two games. Can they keep that up tonight? Against a Houston team that is 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 29.3% from behind the arc? As it is, the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 13 shots from 3-point land in the last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: If Syracuse makes another 14 or so 3-pointers, they will likely cover the point spread tonight. But teams who live by the 3, usually and eventually die by the 3. Houston has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as a favorite. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing on a neutral court. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Houston Cougars (648) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:25 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (624) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (623). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (24-6) reached the Sweet 16 with their 68-66 win against Texas Tech as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Oral Roberts (18-10) has won seven in a row with their 81-78 upset win against Florida as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Banker’s Life Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oral Roberts has been on a magical run pulling off two upsets as a 15-seed. I expect the bubble to burst for the Golden Eagles tonight. Oral Roberts has won fifteen of their last twenty games — but this is a program that has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after winning at least fifteen of their last twenty. The Golden Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after pulling off two straight upset victories. They survived two close games settled by three points against Ohio State and Florida — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games by six points or less. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in at least five straight games. This team has some glaring weaknesses. It starts with their defense as they rank 239th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Florida made 55.2% of their shots against them — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after allowing their last opponent to shoot at least 55% from the field. They also are weak in defending their defensive glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.2% of their missed shots, ranking 332nd in the nation. The Buckeyes and Gators pulled down 39.3% and 35.1% of their missed shots against them. Oral Roberts was out-rebounded by 17 and 13 boards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting out-rebounded by at least ten boards in two straight games. Arkansas has advanced despite not playing very well in their previous two games — they had to rally from a double-digit deficit on both occasions. The Razorbacks only shot 27% from behind the arc in those two games — and they averaged just 1.09 and 1.00 Points-Per-Possession. They did not even register a steal against the Red Raiders which was a first in program history. Arkansas averages 1.12 PPP in Adjusted Efficiency while ranking 63rd in the nation by stealing the ball in 10.6% of their opponent’s possessions — so they should see better days on both fronts. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. This is a team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the total set in the 150s. Arkansas has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a meeting between these two teams on December 20th which Arkansas won by an 87-76 score. The Razorbacks fell behind by 10 points but rallied to win despite only making 4 of their 24 shots from 3-point range. Arkansas dominated the offensive glass by pulling down 49% of their missed shots — and they outscored the Golden Eagles by a 57-36 margin in the second half. Eric Musselman is well-equipped to make adjustments from that game — he already inserted Jaylin Williams in the starting lineup for the 7’3 Connor Vanover who is more versatile in defending the perimeter. And their 6’7 center Justin Smith is one of the most versatile defenders in the nation. 10* CBB Oral Roberts-Arkansas TBS-TV Special with the Arkansas Razorbacks (624) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (622) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (621). THE SITUATION: Baylor (24-2) has won six of their last seven games after their 76-63 victory against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Villanova (18-6) reached the Sweet 16 with an 84-61 victory against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Baylor got their defense working as they forced 14 Badgers’ turnovers representing 21.9% of their possessions. The Bears have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a double-digit victory. Baylor is a reliable favorite because they multiple ways to generate more scoring possessions even if their 3-pointers are not falling — and they lead the nation by making 41.5% of their 3-pointers. The Bears are third nationally by forcing turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They are sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.7% of their missed shots. Villanova allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking 238th in the nation — and that is an ominous number when facing this Baylor team that leads the nation by converting 41.2% of their 3-pointers. The Wildcats’ defense worsens when playing on the road — while they rank 65th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 122nd in that metric on the road. Villanova comes off one of the best games of their season on Sunday. They made 15 of their 30 shots from behind the arc en route to a 55.4% field goal percentage which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games.

At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Villanova Wildcats (621) and the Baylor Bears (622). THE SITUATION: Villanova (18-6) advanced to the Sweet 16 with their 84-61 win against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baylor (24-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 76-63 victory against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats were hot from behind the arc against the Mean Green — they nailed 15 of their 30 shots from 3-point land. We had Villanova in both their NCAA Tournament games last week with the belief that Jay Wright would push the right buttons to keep his offense clicking even after the season-ending injury to senior point guard Collin Gillespie. Wright has responded by running the offense through 6’9 forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who has averaged 20.0 PPG with 8.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this tournament. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Wildcats are going to launch 3s as they play the role of spoiler — a rare role for this program under Wright. Villanova is 27th in the nation by attempting 45.1% of their shots from behind the arc. Wright will likely think his formula for success is to out-shoot the Bears since his team ranks 221st nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.2%. Villanova allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking 238th in the nation — and that is an ominous number when facing this Baylor team that leads the nation by converting 41.2% of their 3-pointers. The Wildcats’ defense worsens when playing on the road — while they rank 65th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 122nd in that metric on the road. Baylor has played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 6 straight games Over the Total after a point spread win. But the play of Scott Drew’s defense remains a concern. The three-week COVID pause in February stunted the development of his team’s play on that end of the court. Since February 1st, the Bears rank 111th in Adjusted Net Defense which is a big drop-off from their 41st ranking overall this season in that metric. After not allowing more than 69 points in all eight of their Big 12 games before February 2nd, Baylor has surrendered at least 70 points in their next five conference games (and six of seven heading into the NCAA Tournament). The numbers have been better against Hartford and Wisconsin in the Big Dance, but that might speak more about those teams than the quality of the Bears’ defensive play. But Baylor will keep scoring — while five of their last ten opponents have shot at least 47.5% from the field, they have made at least 50.8% of their shots in five of those ten games. The Bears average 84.2 PPG behind an offense that ranks third nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Baylor has played 12 of the last 14 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in Big Dance — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Villanova Wildcats (621) and the Baylor Bears (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (626) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (625). THE SITUATION: Loyola-Chicago (26-4) has won eight in a row with their 71-58 win against Illinois as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Oregon State (19-12) has won eight of their last nine games with their 80-70 upset win against Oklahoma State as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Field House in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMBLERS MINUS THE POINTS: Will Loyola-Chicago suffer a letdown after defeating their in-state rival that dodges them in non-conference play? Maybe — but maybe not. It is the Ramblers that has the most recent Final Four run back in 2018 of the two-state programs. Cameron Krutwig was a significant piece on that team — and is now a senior leader of this group. Looking to the team trends, Loyola has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a win by 10 or more points. This is a team that thrives off momentum — they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win, and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while the Ramblers have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in at least four straight games. This is a balanced team that ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Loyola leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (629) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (630). THE SITUATION: Memphis (18-8) has won three of their last four games after defeating Boise State by a 59-56 score as a 4-point favorite in the NIT Quarterfinals on Thursday. Colorado State (20-6) has also won three of their last four games after their 65-61 upset win against North Carolina State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday in their NIT Quarterfinals contest. This game will be played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis advanced despite making only 42.9% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Penny Hardaway’s team should build off their momentum — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by 6 points or less. And while Memphis had covered the point spread in seven straight games before not covering against the Broncos, they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least two in a row. Hardaway has been criticized for his coaching — but the former NBA star has overseen the development of his team rising to be number one in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. Memphis has played two straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. And in their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Hardaway’s team has played better away from home — while they rank 50th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 31st in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in games with the total set in the 130s. Colorado State may be due for a letdown after rallying in the second half to defeat the Wolfpack on Thursday. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win. Despite the win, they are scoring only 68.8 PPG over their last five games with a 40.6% field goal percentage over that span which is a dropoff of -5.5 PPG from their season average where they are making 46.9% of their shots. Colorado State has been more effective at home at Fort Collins where they rank 63rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. When away from home, the Rams fall to 87th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The biggest problem is with the play of their offense — consistent with the decline in their recent five games. While Colorado State ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 134th in that metric on the road. Protecting the basketball has been an issue — they turn the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions, ranking 205th nationally. Memphis forces turnovers in 22.3% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 28th nationally.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on a neutral court as a dog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB NIT Semifinals Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (629) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (630). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (617) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (618). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (22-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 70-61 upset victory against Mississippi as a 3-point underdog last Friday. Western Kentucky (21-7) has won four of their last five games after their 69-67 upset victory against Saint Mary’s as a 2-point underdog last Wednesday. This NIT Quarterfinals game will be played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs reached the Quarterfinals with their win against Ole Miss despite allowing them to make 40.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Louisiana Tech has held their last five opponents to just 38.4% shooting along with 61.6 PPG which is -2.9 PPG below their season average. They have allowed 61 and 54 points in the last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Bulldogs’ last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while that game finished above the 129.5 point total, Louisiana Tech has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The home/road splits are striking for this team. While they rank 93rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they plummet to 236th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. And while they rank 77th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they skyrocket to ninth-best in defense when playing on the road. The Bulldogs have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against Conference USA opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. The Under is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Western Kentucky outlasted the Gaels despite allowing them to make 48% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 17 games. The Hilltoppers have still held their last five opponents to 40.5% shooting which has resulted in just 62.4 PPG in their last five games which are -5.5 PPG below their season average. They are scoring only 66.0 PPG in these previous five games which are -7.0 PPG below their season average — a 41.4% shooting mark explains the decline. Western Kentucky have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Hilltoppers have also palled 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 23 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. Additionally, Western Kentucky has played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total against conference foes — and they have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Hilltoppers have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is looking to avenge a 63-58 loss at home to the Bulldogs on January 9th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (617) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (613) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Colorado State (614). THE SITUATION: NC State (14-10) has won six of their last seven games with their 75-61 win against Davidson as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. Colorado State (19-6) has won two of their last three games with their 75-73 win against Buffalo as a 2-point favorite last Friday. This quarterfinals match in the National Invitational Tournament is being played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: NC State nailed 58.8% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort of the season. That typically is a red flag for me as an outlier effort that is due for regression. But that was the fifth time in their last seven games that NC State has made at least 50% of their shots. This is a team peaking in March — despite losing their top-scorer, Devon Daniels, to a season-ending ACL tear at the end o January. Kevin Keatts kept coaching — and he has redesigned the offense to rely more on his frontcourt. Junior forward Jericole Hellems has averaged 13.8 PPG in his last 13 games. 6’10 senior D.J. Funderburk led the team with 21 points against Davidson. Four of the Wolfpack’s best graded net efficiency performances have taken place since February 6th. The team trends suggest the strong effort last week is a sign of good things to come for this team — they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. And while the Wolfpack’s with the Wildcats finished Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing an Under. NC State also tends to play better on the road. While they rank 93rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they rise to 27th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road fueled by a ranking 13th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Another metrics projection system I consider ranks the Wolfpack as the 11th best team in the nation on the road. Colorado State has played their basketball at home in Fort Collins where they have an edge given their familiarity with the higher altitude. The Rams rank 64th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home — but they fall to 90th nationally in that metric on the road. The biggest dropoff away from home is the performance of their offense. While Colorado State is 68th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 124th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. This is not a great matchup for the Rams either given their propensity to commit turnovers. Colorado State turns the ball over in 19.8% of their possessions, the 222nd worst mark in the nation. They were even worse in the Mountain West Conference with a turnover rate of 21.9%, ninth-worst. The Wolfpack forced turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 40th nationally. Colorado State has not committed more than 11 turnovers in four straight games — but not only have the Rams failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in two straight games, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in three straight games. Despite protecting the basketball better as of late (albeit against opponents not as adept at forcing turnovers as NC State), the top-five performances this season for Colorado State, in terms of efficiency, all took place before February.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court with the total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. NC State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as a favorite or picks ‘em — and they have covered the point spread 9 of their last 14 games on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (613) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Colorado State (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Pepperdine Wave (610) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (609). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (14-12) advanced to the Championship Game of the College Basketball Invitational with their 82-71 win against Bellarmine as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (18-7) won their semifinals game against Stetson with a 77-72 win in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite. The CBI is being played at a neutral court at Oceans Center in Dayton Beach.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Pepperdine had high expectations to begin the season with four starters back from the group that finished 16-16. Lorenzo Romar has talent on his team — led by senior Colbey Ross who is averaging 17.6 PPG and junior Kessler Edwards who added 17.5 PPG. The Wave suffered close losses to good teams last season — including 2-point losses to Gonzaga and Arizona. It was more of the same for Romar’s team this season with an early triple-overtime loss to UCLA (when the Bruins still had a healthy Chris Smith) and a 5-point loss to San Diego State. The Wave then endured a front-loaded schedule in the West Coast Conference given COVID cancellations — they still played Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s twice and BYU three times (including the conference tournament) but did not benefit from getting to load up on the bottom half of the conference. Pepperdine did defeat Saint Mary’s and BYU in the regular season — but they lost an overtime heartbreaker to the Cougars in the West Coast Conference tournament, despite a spectacular effort from Ross. The Wave should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Pepperdine has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Wave are playing their best basketball of the season now in March with four wins in their last five games. They have scored at least 77 points in each of their last five games while averaging 81.4 PPG with a 48.5% shooting clip over that span. Pepperdine has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Wave have also been more effective on the road. While Pepperdine ranks 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they improve to 66th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150. Pepperdine is also 38-14-2 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Coastal Carolina has the burden of playing without rest after a game that required overtime — and, as it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. And while the Chanticleers have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Overs. This is a big step-up in competition for this team whose best opponent this season was a Wofford team that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks at 126th in the nation — and they lost by 11 points. Pomeroy ranks Pepperdine as the 105th team nationally. Twenty-two of the 25 teams Coastal Carolina played this season are ranked 211th or lower by Pomeroy.

FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and the Wave have covered the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral court as a favorite. 25* CBB CBI Game of the Year with the Pepperdine Wave (610) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (822) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the USC Trojans (821). THE SITUATION: Kansas (21-8) has won four straight games after their 93-84 win against Eastern Washington as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. USC (23-7) has won four of their last five games after their 72-56 victory against Drake as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Kansas is getting back to complete health after their COVID shutdown during the Big 12 tournament. Their freshman, Jalen Wilson, a rising star, was cleared to leave quarantine after missing Saturday’s game — he will be available for this game. Center David McCormack seemed in fine form after the long pause as he scored 20 of his 22 points in the second half. McCormack will have the responsibility of slowing down the Trojans’ Evan Mobley. The Jayhawks may have been a step slow on defense after their return from quarantine as they allowed Eastern Washington to make 50% of their shots which was tied for the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last ten games. Kansas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game — including all four of those circumstances this season. The Jayhawks trailed the Eagles by a 46-38 score at halftime — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. Kansas has won nine of their last ten games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games after winning their last ten. Furthermore, the Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in three days. And in their last 30 games with the Total set in the 130s, Kansas has covered the point spread in 20 of those games. USC was outstanding against Drake — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. And while the Trojans had not covered the point spread in three straight games before covering against the Bulldogs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread only once in their last three games. USC nailed 8 of their 15 shots from behind the arc to help their 50% field goal percentage for the game. The Trojans have made at least 48.3% of their shots in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after making at least 48% of their shots in three straight games. USC is 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they drop to 49th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when on the road. They held Drake to just 29.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after holding their last opponent to no better than 33% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: In Bill Self, I Trust — at least in this virtual pick ‘em. He is the best in the business in drawing up plays — and he is elite in making second-half adjustments. USC only makes 65.4% of their free throws, ranking 328th in the nation — and I hate that part of their game in a contest expected to be so close. Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with Kansas Jayhawks (822) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the USC Trojans (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (831) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (832). THE SITUATION: Maryland (17-13) has won two of their last three games after their 63-54 win against UConn as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Alabama (25-6) has won seven in a row with their 68-55 victory against Iona as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Maryland Unders have been very for us over the last few weeks when the Terrapins have away from College Park. They offer the valuable combination of being undervalued on defense when playing on the road while being overvalued on offense. While Maryland ranked just 94th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they jump to eighth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.2 PPG on 39.1% shooting even after Michigan torched them at a 51.7% clip in the Big Ten tournament. They rank 10th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 23rd ranking in that metric for the season. But head coach Mark Turgeon sees a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins are 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 83rd in the nation in that metric on the road. They score 62.2 PPG on the road on 42.7% shooting which is -6.4 PPG below their season average. This foundation does not make us zombies to Maryland Unders moving forward — the circumstances warrant the play. The Terrapins continued to play tough defense by holding the Huskies on Saturday to just 32.3% shooting — that was the eleventh time this season they held an opponent under 60 points. But Maryland overachieved on offense by nailing 51.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. They are due for some regression on that front. The Terrapins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. Alabama made 47.2% of their shots in their win against the Gaels which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Even better, Nate Oats’ team shares the same identity as Maryland in that they play better defense but sees their offensive efficiency decline when playing on the road. Alabama is 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they are third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. But while the Tide are 32nd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 60th nationally in that metric on the road where they make only 41.8% of their shots. The Crimson Tide’s defense is trending in the right direction after holding Iona to just 39.0 shooting. Alabama’s last five opponents are averaging 65.8 PPG on 39.4% shooting from the field.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. The Terrapins have also played 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (831) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (828) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (827). THE SITUATION: Florida State (17-6) has won two of their last three games after their 64-54 win against UNC-Greensboro as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Colorado (23-8) has won seven of their last eight games after their 96-73 win against Georgetown as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Fascinating situation here with metrics guru Ken Pomeroy projecting Colorado as a 2-point winner with another analytics guru I peruse projecting the Bufaloes as a 4-point winner. Yet the numbers I lean most heavily on — that values home/road splits the most — has Florida State a 1-point favorite which correlates with what the oddsmakers are thinking. I am with the oddsmakers in this one. While Colorado is 5th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, ranking 7th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they drop to 15th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency while ranking 21st on offense and 38th on defense. And the Buffaloes come off a wild outlier performance on Saturday where they torched the nets against a helpless Hoyas team by nailing 11 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. Colorado made a season-high 60.7% of their shots in that game — but I fully expect that the Regression Gods will be making an appearance tonight. The Seminoles are 26th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. Their ability to use all five players on the court to switch off makes it very difficult on opponents. They are the tallest team in the nation according to Pomeroy’s numbers. Colorado is led by star guard McKinley Wright — but he’s just 6’0 who will likely struggle against the length that Florida State deploys. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Then there is head coach Tad Boyle. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 postseason games under Boyle including four of their last five games in the Big Dance. Florida State did not make a 3-pointer on Saturday against the Spartans — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone when they make their appearance tonight. The Seminoles are sixth in the nation by making 39.0% of their 3-pointers, so they will start falling. Florida State only pulled down five offensive rebounds in that game as well — no wonder I passed on that situation. The Seminoles are 16th in the nation by rebounding 35.1% of their missed shots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not rebounding more than five offensive boards in their last game. Florida State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams scored at least 65 points. And in their last 6 games where it was just their second game in eight days, the Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: I think Leonard Hamilton is the most underrated head coach in any sport in the country. His teams tend to be overvalued as big favorites — but they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or dog up to three points. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (828) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (826) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (825). THE SITUATION: Michigan (21-4) has won two of their last three games after their 82-66 win against Texas Southern on Saturday as a 28.5-point favorite. LSU (19-9) has won five of their last six games with their 76-61 victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan will miss the senior leadership of Isaiah Livers who is likely not available for the NCAA tournament with the stress fracture in his foot — but his loss is being overstated by the pundits and betting public with the Wolverines falling to just a 4-point favorite in many spots. The Wolverines were significantly worse last year when they had to play without Livers — but there is a substantial difference between that team and the one that will take the court tonight. This group is more mature and more seasoned with another year under Juwan Howard’s guidance. Howard is a fantastic coach. And this Michigan team has freshman phenom, Hunter Dickinson. It will be junior Brandon Johns who will take Livers spot in the starting lineup — and the junior has improved significantly since last season. Johns is a former five-star recruit, so it’s not like he is a scrub. The loss of Livers’ shooting means players like Mike Smith need to step up. Smith was a prolific scorer in the Ivy League before transferring to Ann Arbor where he embraced the role of distributor. He did lead the team in scoring with 18 points on Saturday. Michigan has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. LSU seems to be peaking in their support by the betting public right now with five wins in their last six games. They held the Bonnies to just a 33.3% shooting percentage which was the lowest opponent field goal percentage in their last 26 games. While I appreciate that this is a talented roster, I am not convinced they figured things out to finally discover consistency. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 60 of their last 99 games on the road after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 15 points. They are thin inside as they allow their opponents to make 50.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they allow their opponents to pull down 32.4% of their missed shots, 320th in the nation. Dickinson is going to have a field day in the middle — and, frankly, so is Johns, who is more of a post player than Livers. And there is a big discrepancy between Howard and Will Wade who does not coach defense. LSU ranks 191st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: LSU is just 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Michigan is 33-15-3 ATS in their last 51 games on a neutral court as a favorite — and they are 11-4-2 ATS in the Big Dance as a favorite. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Michigan Wolverines (826) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (825). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (823) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (824). THE SITUATION: Oregon (20-6) advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday after VCU pulled out of the tournament after a positive COVID case. The Ducks saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament in a 75-64 upset loss to Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Iowa (22-8) defeated Grand Canyon by an 86-74 score as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: I am not worried about how the cancellation of Friday’s game impacted the Ducks — I see it as just another day of rest that should help with their legs in the second half. Oregon only made 41.7% of their shots against the Beavers in the Pac-12 Championship Game — far below their 47.2% shooting percentage for the season. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits in a game where they were laying at least 7 points. Oregon was hit pretty hard by COVID which interrupted their season twice. And those circumstances were in addition to them dealing with some injuries with Eric Williams banged up for much of the season and Will Richardson out until early February with a thumb injury. The Ducks have won eleven of their last thirteen games since February 6th while exceeding point spread expectations in five straight games before getting upset in the Pac-12 tournament. Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Ducks tend to play better on the road this season. While they rank 56th in Adjusted Net Efficiency in Eugene, they improve to 40th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. They have a dynamic set of players that ranked 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Oregon has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court. Iowa made 53.7% of their shots on Friday which was the best scoring effort in their last 16 games. But the Hawkeyes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Iowa is one of the best scoring teams in the nation — but they are held back on defense given the limitations of Luke Garza in the interior. The Hawkeyes ranked 60th in the nation and seventh in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This suspect play on defense explains why they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Furthermore, Iowa is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored — and they are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: While I don’t put too much stock into conference performance after three days in the Big Dance, I certainly have observed how well the Pac-12 is doing — and how disappointing the Big Ten has been. Oregon has the better head coach this afternoon — and not only are the Ducks 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games, but they have covered 6 straight games in the Big Dance under Dana Altman as the underdog. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 NCAA Tournament games when favored under Fran McCaffrey. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Underdog of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (823) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (812) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (811). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (21-8) has won four of their last five games after their 69-60 win against Liberty as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Oregon State (18-12) has won seven of their last eight games after their 70-56 upset win against Tennessee as a 9-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have coved the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while the Cowboys have covered the point spread in nine of their last ten games, that bodes well for them moving forward as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in at least six of their last seven games. And they defeated the Flames despite only making 40.4% of their shots which was the lowest shooting effort in their last 11 games. Liberty made only 37.5% of their shots in that game — and Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Oregon State has pulled off four straight upsets with their 70-56 win against Tennessee as a 9-point underdog. The Beavers held the Volunteers — missing their best post player in John Fulkerson who did not play because of his concussion from the SEC tournament — to just 33.3% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. Trying to defend Cade Cunningham will be a stiffer test than the Volunteers who too often disappeared on offense. Oregon State upset Colorado to win the Pac-12 tournament — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after pulling off two straight upset wins. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning at least four games in a row. Oregon State’s zone defense under head coach Wayne Tinkle holds opponents to just 30.9% shooting from behind the arc — but the Cowboys are not reliant on shooting 3s. Only 31.7% of their field goal attempts are from behind the arc which is the 299th lowest mark in the nation — and just 24.5% of their points come from made 3-pointers, the 315th lowest mark in the nation. But Oregon State is vulnerable in the interior with opponents making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 263rd in the nation. Oklahoma State was second in the Big 12 by making 52.6% of their 2-point shots. They should get to the line tonight — they ranked 2nd in the Big 12 in free throw rate, and the Mean Green ranked 298th in the nation in defensive free throw rate. North Texas also allows their opponents to pull down 29.4% of their missed shots, 235th in the nation — and the Cowboys pull down 31.8% of their missed shots. Head coach Mike Boynton has many ways for his team to score points against the Beavers’ zone defense.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. 10* CBB Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (812) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (811). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (804) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (803). THE SITUATION: Villanova (17-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 73-63 win against Winthrop as a 6-point favorite on Friday. North Texas (18-9) has won five games in a row with their 78-69 upset win in overtime against Purdue on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: North Texas has now pulled off two straight upsets that needed overtime as they pulled off the same to defeat Western Kentucky to win the Conference USA tournament. I suspect the bubble bursts for the Mean Green tonight. Before their victory against the young Boilermakers on Friday, the best team that North Texas had beat was probably Louisiana Tech that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 74th best team in the nation. They lost by double-digits against Arkansas and West Virginia earlier in the season — and they lost to 8 points to North Texas. Grant McCasland is a great coach, and it is a nice story for this team. But they turn the ball over in 19.9% of their possessions — and that number rises to 20.6% of their possessions on the road, ranking 238th in the nation. They also do not get many freebies as they rank 283rd in free throw rate. Turnovers and lack of free throws are giving too many scoring opportunities to a Wildcats team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Texas did hold the Boilermaker stock 36.2% shooting which was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last three games. But not only have they then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make better than 37% of their shots but they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 37%. As expected, Jay Wright made adjustments to his schemes with the eight days he had since losing in the Big East quarterfinals to Georgetown. With point guard Collin Gillespie out the rest of the season, Wright had the offense structured around senior Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who is having an All-American worthy season. He scored 22 points on Friday. Sophomore Justin Moore is a rising star who can handle the point guard duties. This is Jay Wright. This is still Villanova. The program is loaded with talent. There is a reason this team has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when favored in the NCAA Tournament. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. In their two previous upset losses before the tournament, the one against Providence was after Moore suffered an injury that kept him out of the second half. Their upset loss to Georgetown then was by one point against a Hoyas team that looks much better ten days later. Don’t overreact to one close loss.

FINAL TAKE: Villanova is 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games when playing on a neutral court — and North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 25* CBB TNT Game of the Year with the Villanova Wildcats (804) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (808) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Griffins (807). THE SITUATION: Florida (15-9) has won two of their last three games with their 75-70 upset win against Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Oral Roberts (17-10) pulled off the upset of the tournament with their 75-72 triumph against Ohio State as a 15-point underdog on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS THE POINTS: After pulling off the upset win against the Buckeyes, I suspect it is time for the bubble to burst for the Golden Griffins. Oral Roberts upset won the Summit League title game by a 75-72 score against North Dakota State in another nail-biter — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Before beating Ohio State, the Golden Eagles’ best win was against a South Dakota State team that metrics guru ranks at 114th in the country. They have suffered double-digit losses to Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the SEC. Florida should be ready to roll as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with one day of rest. And while the Gators’ upset win against the Hokies was their first point spread cover in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. They should have plenty of success hitting 3s against this Oral Roberts team that allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their shots from downtown, 237th in the nation. Florida hits 35.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Led by a rising superstar in Tre Mann, the Gators should overwhelm these upstarts.

FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the postseason — including three of their last four appearances in the NCAA Tournament. Florida is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Oral Roberts-Florida truTV Special with the Florida Gators (808) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Griffins (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (805) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (806). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (18-10) has won four of their last six games after their 65-53 win against Utah State as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Arkansas (23-6) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 85-68 win against Colgate as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arkansas plays at the 35th fastest tempo in the country when they have the basketball. And their full-court press helps them create a frantic pace to the pace game. But that will not likely have much success against this Red Raiders team that is 40th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.1% of their possessions — and that mark dropped to 15.6% in the Big 12. The Under also offers a strong technical play. Texas Tech has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Red Raiders have played 5 straight games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Razorbacks rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-1-1 in the Red Raiders’ last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on a neutral court when favored. Arkansas has played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament 2nd Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (805) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (806). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (813) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (814). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (17-9) has won four of their last five games after their 78-62 win against San Diego State as a 3-point underdog on Friday. West Virginia (19-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 84-67 win against Morehead State as a 13-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Syracuse have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They held the Aztecs to just 35.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last three games. If you turn the sound on your TV on, all you hear from the CBS-TV basketball pundits is about how tough the Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone is — and then bettors take the Under. Would it surprise you that the Orange have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total on a neutral court … even with their 2-3 matchup zone? Syracuse has also played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a dog on a neutral court. Syracuse’s defense is not nearly as good when playing from the Carrier Dome either. While they rank 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 189th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road -- and these teams are averaging 76.4 PPG. But the Orange offense improves on the road as well. While Syracuse ranks 60th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they rise to 14th in that metric on the road. West Virginia has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. This is one of head coach Bob Huggins’ better offensive teams in Morgantown — they rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. But this is not one of his elite defensive teams. West Virginia has allowed their last three opponents to make 49.0% of their shots which has generated 77.0 PPG. The Mountaineers are scoring 79.6 PPG over that span. West Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total in the NCAA Tournament when favored. Huggins’ teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total in the Big Dance overall. And in their last 19 games with the over/under in the 140s, the Mountaineers have played 15 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 19-6-1 in West Virginia’s last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Syracuse has played 22 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 20* CBB Syracuse-West Virginia CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (813) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (18-12) has won two of their last three games after their 85-62 upset win against North Carolina as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Baylor (23-2) has won five of their last six games after their 79-55 win against Hartford as a 25.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin played one of their best games of the season in their upset win against the Tar Heels. They made 13 of their 27 shots from behind the arc. Regulars know that I typically want to fade teams coming off outlier performances. While it is one of the factors I look at, it is not a controlling variable. I do not expect the Badgers to replicate that effort. However, I do take heart that Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. Greg Gard’s team has a psyche that feeds off positive or negative vibes — this is why I value team trends. Frankly, I thought this Wisconsin team was overvalued in December — but I find them undervalued now after bettors shied away from them after they lost six of eight games heading into the Big Dance. I still think it is somewhere in the middle. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games on the road after losing four of five of their last six games. The laptops love this Wisconsin team — they rank 12th by Ken Pomeroy, and they rank 11th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Gard’s system attempts to control the tempo with a slow-pace — they rank 319th in pace this season. This helps them keep games close — they are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Baylor held Hartford to just 35.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 10 games. The Bears have struggled on the defensive end o the court — they entered the Big Dance just 180th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the last three weeks of the season. The COVID pauses they have endured have taken away important practice time where Scott Drew can address footwork issues. I think Baylor should play better defense in their tournament run — but this is not likely to be peak-Drew defensive intensity. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Baylor has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning at least twelve of their last fifteen games. But the Bears have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. These team trends tell me that Baylor is primed to experience some nervy moments this afternoon. They have generated at least 16 more shots than their last two opponents — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after attempting at least 10 more shots than their opponents in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has five battle-tested seniors with tons of chemistry, cohesion, and experience. I think they will be a tough-out — and have thought so for months if they were in a situation like this in the tournament. Baylor is great — but these favorites with National Championship aspirations can succumb to the pressure in situations like this (see Illinois). What do the team trends say? The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Wisconsin is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games under Gard in the Big Dance — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. 10* CBB Wisconsin-Baylor CBS-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET On Sunday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (809) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (810). THE SITUATION: Loyola-Chicago (25-4) won their seventh game in a row with their 71-60 win against Georgia Tech as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. Illinois (24-6) has won eight straight games with their 78-49 win against Drexel as a 19.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMBLERS PLUS THE POINTS: Loyola outlasted the ACC Tournament champions in their opening-round game despite shooting 47.2% from the field which is pretty good but still their lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Ramblers are an outstanding shooting team that ranks 9th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4%. Loyola should build off the momentum from that win as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread win. The Ramblers are ranked 10th in the nation by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy — and they perform similarly by other analytics projections. I am trusting the laptops a bit on this one. Loyola has the pedigree of a team that should be very competitive against an, albeit, outstanding Illini team. They rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are second in the country in limiting their opponents to rebounding just 20.7% of their missed shots. They have the fifth-lowest opponent free-throw rate. They nail a healthy 35.9% of their 3-pointers. They play at the 305th slowest pace in the nation — fewer possessions lulls the opponent into their style which can be very dangerous for favorites with national championship aspirations. The Ramblers also play better on the road where they have the sixth-best Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Illinois was nearly flawless against the Dragons on Friday — it will be tough for them to maintain that high, high level of play. They held Drexel to 30.6% shooting which was their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 23 games. The Fighting Illini have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Their 57.1% shooting percentage was their best mark in their last 25 games. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. They only committed five turnovers on Friday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not committing more than five turnovers in their last game. And while the Illini raced out to a 39-21 lead at halftime, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after owning a halftime lead of at least 15 points in their last game. Additionally, Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing their second game in three days. The only negative thing I can say about this Illini team is that they are not great at the free-throw line — and that might help down the stretch for the Ramblers to keep things close. Illinois makes 68.6% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 244th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Loyola is a live dog who would love to upset their in-state rival who will not put them on their non-conference schedule. The Ramblers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament including a Final Four run in 2018 under head coach Porter Moser. They will be confident — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Tip-Off with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (809) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (788) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (787). THE SITUATION: BYU (20-6) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference in an 88-78 loss to Gonzaga as a 14-point underdog on March 9th. UCLA (18-9) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 86-80 win in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog against Michigan State in the play-in game on Thursday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU had a second half lead late in the game before the undefeated Bulldogs pulled away — but they have probably played the number one team nation closer than any of their other opponents which includes Iowa, West Virginia, and Virginia. They should respond with a confident and resilient effort. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points. BYU has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. The Cougars are a balanced team who have been more effective away from Salt Lake City. While they rank 51st in the nation i Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they improve to 15th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They are 26th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 25th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games with the total set in the 130s. UCLA may be due for a letdown after rallying from a 14-point deficit to eke out the win against the Spartans in overtime. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And while UCLA has scored at least 79 points in their last two games, they  have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. Their star player, Johnny Juzang, twisted his ankle late in the game on Thursday — he is questionable for this one. His loss would be tough to overcome — this group already lost Chris Smith in late December two a season-ending injury, who bypassed the NBA draft last spring. The Bruins played their best basketball at home where they ranked 28th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They fall to 60th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road with a big decline in their effectiveness on defense. UCLA ranks 149th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road as compared to their rank of 60th when at home. Furthermore, the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games played on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA tournament as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. BYU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 20* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the BYU Cougars (788) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (787). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (791) and the Connecticut Huskies (792). THE SITUATION: Maryland (16-13) has lost three of their last four games after their 79-66 win against Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog last Friday. UConn (15-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 59-56 upset loss to Creighton as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Maryland allowed the Wolverines to make 51.7 % of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 14 games. The Terrapins were second in the Big Ten by allowing only 65.0 PPG on 40.9% shooting — so they should play better on that end of the court tonight. Maryland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit loss to a Big Ten opponent. The Terrapins have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While Maryland ranked just 95th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they jump to ninth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.4 PPG on 39.5% shooting even after what Michigan did to them. They rank 14th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 25th ranking in that metric for the season. But head coach Mark Turgeon sees a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins are 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 96th in the nation in that metric on the road. They score 62.1 PPG on the road on 42.1% shooting which is -6.7 PPG below their season average. Maryland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UConn had played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. And while the Huskies had covered five games in a row before their upset loss to the Bluejays, they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. UConn led the Big East by allowing only 64.6 PPG — and they held ten opponents to under 60 points. They have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. And while they ranked 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 5th best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But UConn only makes 40% of their shots on the road which results in 67.7 PPG which is -4.8 PPG below their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. UConn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (791) and the Connecticut Huskies (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (781) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (782). THE SITUATION: St. Bonaventure (16-4) has won three in a row as well as six of their last seven games after winning the Atlantic 10 tournament with a 74-65 win against VCU as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. LSU (18-9) lost in the finals of the SEC tournament in an 80-79 loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BONNIES PLUS THE POINTS: With five-straight point spread covers, many basketball observers think this LSU team has “found another gear”. Maybe. Will Wade’s team has the talent to hang with any team in the nation. The problem has been their discipline and focus — and I am very worried about them entering the NCAA Tournament feeling themselves after a good week in the SEC tournament. LSU played their best basketball at home where they were 11-2 while ranking 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. But the Tigers were just 7-7 on the road with a +0.6 net points-per-game differential — and they fall to 44th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency away from home. The biggest area of concern is the decline in their play on defense away from Baton Rouge. While LSU ranks a mediocre 84th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 218th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Defensive rebounding is the main source of these troubles. The Tigers rank 325th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.8% of their missed shots. They have allowed their last four opponents to get at least 15 second-chance scoring opportunities — and Arkansas and Alabama pulled down a whopping 40% of their missed shots. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 15 offensive rebounds in two straight games. This is a program that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament when favored. Enter St. Bonaventure who ranks 30th in the nation by pulling down 33.6% of their missed shots. This is a young-but-talented team that returned all five starters (albeit one transferred after losing his starting gig) from last year’s group that finished 19-12 last year. Head coach Mark Schmidt has overseen at least 18 wins in seven straight seasons — but this is just his team’s second appearance in the Big Dance during that span. After winning the Atlantic 10 regular season and conference titles, the Bonnies will be confident and anxious to prove themselves on this stage. St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a win against a conference opponent. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after winning three of their last four games. The Bonnies are an outstanding defensive team that has not allowed more than 65 points in seven straight games. St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They are fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to 60.1 PPG. A slow tempo helps — they operate at the 319th slowest-rate in the nation. I expect this plodding pace to frustrate LSU who wants to run — and tempo showdowns tend to favor the slower team. But it not just fewer scoring opportunities as to why the Bonnies are outstanding on defense. St. Bonaventure ranks 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5% is the 14th best in the nation. Furthermore, while the Bonnies rank 45th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they rise to 17th best in the nation in that metric when on the road. St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Defense travels — St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 8 straight games played on a neutral court. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as a favorite. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Tip-Off with the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (781) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (730) minus the points versus the Winthrop Eagles (729). THE SITUATION: Villanova (16-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 72-71 upset loss to Georgetown as a 6-point favorite in the Big East tournament last Thursday. Winthrop (23-1) has won seven straight games after their 80-53 win against Campbell to win the Big South conference tournament on March 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Winthrop is a trendy upset pick tonight by the same folks who wanted to build a shrine to Jay Wright after he won his last NCAA Tournament a couple of years ago. The Wildcats suffered a big blow with the season-ending injury to their senior point guard leader, Colin Gillespie. But the cupboard ain’t bare in Philadelphia — and Wright has had over a week to fine-tune how he will live life without Gillespie. Point guard duties go to sophomore Justin Moore who is a rising star. Villanova has been upset twice in a row — they were stunned by Providence, 54-52, in their final regular-season game before the Big East tournament. Moore was injured in that game and did not play in the second half. He is healthy again — but it contextualizes that loss. The Wildcats have a star player in Jeremiah Robinson-Earl as well. Villanova is 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games after a point spread loss. They are also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Does Winthrop feel the pressure of expectations with this golden opportunity to topple a nouveau-blue blood without their floor general? They have covered the point spread in their last three games with victories by at least 21 points in all three games. Yet the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Winthrop has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after winning three in a row all by double-digits including failing to cover the point spread in all three of those situates this season. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven in a row. This team plays at the 11th fastest tempo in the nation — that is a good way to blowout lesser teams, but it goes against the Giant Killer principles since more possessions allow for more opportunities for the Regression Gods to correct outlier performances (or, in the other words, more possessions helps favorites and teams with more talent). Winthrop’s strength of schedule is simply not impressive: their best win is against a Furman team that Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 92nd team in the nation. Only three of the Eagles’ opponents (representing four games) rank in Pomeroy’s top 207 teams! Winthrop has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Winthrop has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight NCAA Tournament games. Villanova has covered the point spread in 7 straight NCAA Tournament games when favored. Trust Jay Wright. 20* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Villanova Wildcats (730) minus the points versus the Winthrop Eagles (729). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (750) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (749). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (23-4) won the Mountain West Conference tournament with their 68-57 win against Utah State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Syracuse (16-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 72-69 loss to Virginia as a 5.5-point underdog last Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Field House in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning two of their last three games. The Orange were 13-1 on the home court this season — but they were just 3-9 away from the Carrier Dome where they were outscored by -2.9 PPG. The deeper metrics are pretty ugly. Syracuse ranked 38th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when at home but they drop to 58th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. The vaunted Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone is supposed to take over to perplex teams in March. But while the Orange ranked 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 206th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency wen away from the troubling sightlines at the Carrier Dome. Their opponents made 35.6% of their 3-pointers away from the Carrier Dome, ranking 227th nationally. Perhaps it just took some time during a pandemic for Boeheim to teach his complicated principles this season? In their last ten games, Syracuse’s opponents made 35.2% of their 3-pointers, ranking 214th nationally. San Diego State makes 37.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 27th best in the nation. They also pull down a healthy 29.9% of their missed shots, 109th nationally, so they should be able to exploit the open space in the key which is the vulnerability of the 2-3 zone. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after a double-digit win. And while San Diego State has only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Aztecs played better on the road this season. While they ranked 19th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home (not bad!), they rise to 10th in the nation with that metric on the road. Defense travels — they are 10th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just 60.6 PPG on 38.8% shooting, ranking 8th, and 7th respectively. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court when favored by 6 points or less. Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the San Diego State Aztecs (750) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (727) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (728). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (17-12) has lost four of their last five games after losing to Iowa by a 62-57 score as a 5-point underdog last Friday in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. North Carolina (17-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 69-66 loss to Florida State as a 3-point underdog in the semifinals of the ACC tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin only made 38.6% of their shots against the Hawkeyes which was the worst effort in their last four games. The Badgers are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a loss. Wisconsin has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after losing four or five of their last six contests. The pundits were too high on this team early in the season enamored with the Badgers returning five seniors that all scored at least 8.7 PPG from a group that shared the Big Ten title. The Wisconsin starting five is older than the Chicago Bulls’ starting five. But the problem with having so many seniors is that none of them were talented enough to leave early for the NBA. There is a talent issue with the Badgers which explains why they lost nine games against teams ranked ahead of them in the AP poll. Now, these same pundits feel burned by their early love for Wisconsin and jumped off the bandwagon. But this remains a scrappy, veteran team that is battle-tested and remained loved by the laptops. Metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks the Badgers’ 12th best in the nation while ranking 13th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wisconsin is 9-4-3 ATS in their last 16 games on a neutral court as an underdog. North Carolina tends to underachieve when playing after an extended break. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing with five or six days of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread when playing their second game in eight days. And while North Carolina has pulled down at least 42 rebounds in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rebounding at least 41 boards in three straight games. The Tar Heels live off the glass — they lead the nation by pulling down 41.3% of their missed shots. The problem is that they miss too many shots. They rank 248th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.5% — and they make only 31.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 270th, with Roy Williams still playing 1980s-style basketball. North Carolina averages only 5.6 made 3-pointers per game, which was 13th in the ACC. They also turn the ball over in 20.5% of their possessions, 256th nationally, which mitigates their offensive rebounding. It is telling that this is Williams’ third-worst offensive unit in his 18-year tenure with the program. While the Tar Heels rank 60th in the nation and second in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 82nd nationally while crashing to 12th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This North Carolina team is very young — they rank 330th in team experience while starting two freshmen guards. The experience of this Ohio State team — who remains very good and consistently competed against teams better than the Tar Heels every week in the Big Ten — should make a big difference. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Wisconsin-North Carolina CBS-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (727) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (748) minus the points versus the Liberty Flames (747). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (20-8) had their three-game winning streak snapped in the Big 12 Championship Game in a 91-86 loss to Texas as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Liberty (23-5) won the Big South tournament by defeating Northern Alabama by a 79-75 score as a 13-point favorite on March 7th. This game is being played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Liberty is a trendy underdog pick in this game because they are outstanding at shooting the basketball. They are 10th in the nation by making 38.8% of their shots. However, most of this good work was done at home with the friendly rims bought by Jerry Falwell, Sr. The Flames nail 44.5% of their 3-pointers at home which is the third-best mark in the nation. But they only make 35.4% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking just 81st nationally. Liberty plays at a slow pace which is good for Giant Killers as it can trap big favorites into some anxiety-ridden moments. The problem for the Flames is they have no Plan B if their 3-pointers are not falling (expect “shoot more 3s” — they are 15th in the nation in 3-point attempt ratio). Liberty is 298th nationally by pulling down 23.2% of their missed shots, and they are 261st in forcing turnovers in just 173.% of their opponent’s possessions. This team had a chance to shoot their way into upset wins against Purdue and Missouri this season but lost by 13 and 9 points respectively. Liberty ranks 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 79th in that metric away from campus. They do play a “pack-line” defense — but too often basketball pundits assume the warrant is in the claim when making that assertion. Not all “pack-lines” are built the same, or everyone would be copying the Virginia defense (and Liberty is not Virginia). The Flames have covered the potion spread in 6 of their last 8 games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Cowboys allowed the Longhorns to make 49.1% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, while the Cowboys rank 35th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 29th nationally when playing on the road. The Liberty backline plays a little farther out to ward off 3s — but that is not Oklahoma State’s primary focus on offense. Cade Cunningham can create his shot that drives this offense — he is the straw that stirs the drink. What Liberty player is defending the number one pick in the NBA draft? Ultimately, the Cowboys have fared well against opponents that profile like the Flames. Liberty averages 10 made 3s on 26 attempts per game. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after 15 games into the season against teams who launch at least 21 shots from distance per game, and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games who average at least 8 made 3s per contest. And while the Liberty packline holds their opponents to just 41.0% shooting, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower.

FINAL TAKE: Maybe Liberty makes close to 40% of their 3s to keep this game close — or pull the upset. Oklahoma State is ranked 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while holding their opponents to making only 31.7% of their 3s. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. A good way to beat a Giant Killer is to counter them with NBA talent. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (748) minus the points versus the Liberty Flames (747). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (738) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Virginia Tech (737). THE SITUATION: Florida (14-9) enters the NCAA Tournament having lost three of their last four games after their 78-66 loss to Tennessee as a 6.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the SEC tournament last Friday. Virginia Tech (15-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 83-71 loss to North Carolina as a 0.5-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament last Thursday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S):  Florida played one of their worst games of the season against the Volunteers — they allowed Tennessee to make 46.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. Even worse, they made just 34.5% of their shots which was a season-low. The Gators have not covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 39 of their last 62 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. This is a team that has handled adversity all season — including overcoming the loss of their best player, Keyonte Johnson, when he had that scary collapse on the court early in the year. Sophomore point guard Tre Mann developed into perhaps the Most Valuable Player in the SEC this season. This team plays great defense for head coach Mike White — they rank 36th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency fueled by them blocking 14.4% of their opponent's shots, 12th best in the nation. The ceiling is pretty high for this team — they have defeated Tennessee, West Virginia, and LSU this season. I like this spot for them to erase the bad memories of their recent slide with a victory this afternoon. This team ranks 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency at both home and on the road — so this is not a team like Michigan State who played significantly better on their familiar home court. The Gators improve to 29th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road as compared to their 64th ranking in that metric when playing at home. Florida has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games on a neutral court as a favorite of three points or less to a pick ‘em (in case they move to a favorite before tip-off). I hate this situation for Virginia Tech — they have played only one game since February 27th and have just three games under their belts in the last six weeks! A two-week COVID pause before the ACC tournament is the reason that this team has been so inactive. The Hokies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three games. Virginia Tech has only covered the point spread once in their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Hokies were tops in ACC play in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but while they ranked 54th nationally and led the ACC in that metric when playing at home, they dropped to 77th nationally and sixth in ACC play in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. The Hokies have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. Florida has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 first-round games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Tip-Off with the Florida Gators (738) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Virginia Tech (737). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (717) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (718). THE SITUATION: UCLA (17-9) has lost four games in a row after their 83-79 loss in overtime to Oregon State as a 5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament on March 11th. Michigan State (15-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-57 loss to Maryland as a 2-point underdog in the second round of the Big Ten tournament on March 11th. This play-in game for the 11-seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA did not have their best player, Johnny Juzang, in the regular-season finale against USC, and he was only able to play 24 minutes against the Beavers in that overtime loss in the Pac-12 tournament. With an additional seven days off since that game, Juzang should be in better condition this game. The Bruins are on a four-game losing streak, but all four of their losses were to NCAA Tournament teams with the Trojans winning on a last-second shot (even without Juzang) and Oregon State forced overtime with a buzzer-beater in regulation. The loss to the Beavers does not look as bad now that they won the Pac-12 tournament either. UCLA has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing at least three games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Bruins only made 42.9% of their shots against Oregon State which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Despite that effort and not having Juzang in the USC loss, UCLA is still making 50% of their shots in their last five games. Michigan State really missed Cassius Winston from last year. They lack a quality point guard this season — and they do not have a player that can create his own shot. Head coach Tom Izzo eventually moved Rocket Watts away from point guard responsibilities — but he only made 29.9% of his shots in Big Ten play with a 23.1% clip from behind the arc so the problems with this team were deeper than Watts playing out of position. UCLA forces their opponents to play at the 318th longest mark per possession which is not a good sign for Sparty that struggles to create shots. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. The Spartans pulled off their upset wins against Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State on their home court. Michigan State ranked 35th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home at the Breslin Center where they were 12-3. But the Spartans are 3-9 on the road where they are outscored by -10.8 PPG. They plummet to ranking 117th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road — and they were 13th in the Big Ten in that metric away from home. Sparty also ranked 13th in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road in Big Ten play. They rank 71st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home but just 151st in that metric on the road. They rank 27th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home but fall to 99th on the road. This is not a good team away from home which is a testament to the inexperience Izzo brought back this season. That is not a good sign for Izzo when considering his teams have not covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 NCAA Tournament games. Michigan State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored. UCLA has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UCLA Bruins (717) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (717) and the Michigan State Spartans (718). THE SITUATION: UCLA (17-9) has lost four games in a row after their 83-79 loss in overtime to Oregon State as a 5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament on March 11th. Michigan State (15-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-57 loss to Maryland as a 2-point underdog in the second round of the Big Ten tournament on March 11th. This play-in game for the 11-seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I expect this game to be a slog between two head coaches who prefer slow, grinding games at the core of their coaching DNA. The Bruins held the Beavers to 42.9% shooting in their overtime loss last week. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. And while the Total was at 133 in their loss to Oregon State, UCLA has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Head coach Mick Cronin lost a piece on offense with Jalen Hill not playing in this tournament for personal reasons. He only scores 6.1 PPG but he crashes the offensive glass for the Bruins. Their leading scorer, Johnny Juzang, has not been at 100% after missing the USC game and playing only 24 minutes against the Beavers. UCLA has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Michigan State (15-12) has played 7 straight games Under the Total after playing a game that did not see more than 125 combined points scored. The Spartans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Michigan State has played six straight Unders under head coach Tom Izzo, they have then played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Spartans really miss Cassius Winston from last year. They lack a quality point guard this season — and they do not have a player that can create his own shot. Izzo eventually moved Rocket Watts away from point guard responsibilities — but he only made 29.9% of this shots in Big Ten play with a 23.1% clip from behind the arc so the problems with this team were deeper than Watts playing out of position. UCLA forces their opponents to play at the 318th longest mark per possession which is not a good sign for Sparty that struggles to create shots. Michigan State is scoring only 59.8 PPG with a 38.6% shooting percentage in their last five games. But the Spartans did see their scoring defense improve by more than 4 PPG in these last five games as they have held those opponents to 66.4 PPG. The Spartans do have the length with their guards to present problems for Bruins’ point guard Tyger Campbell. Michigan State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. The Spartans have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has played 4 straight NCAA Tournament games Under the Total in the Izzo era. UCLA has played 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (717) and the Michigan State Spartans (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (711) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (712). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (16-7) has won six straight games after winning the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament with their 71-63 victory against Morgan State as a 2.5-point favorite on March 13th. Appalachian State (17-11) has won four in a row after taking the Sun Belt conference tournament title with their 80-73 victory against Georgia State as a 7-point underdog on March 8th. This play-in game in the First Four earns the 16th seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE NORFOLK STATE PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State found lightning in a bottle in the Sun Belt tournament with three straight upset victories against Texas State, Coastal Carolina, and then the Panthers to claim the title. They limped into the conference tournament with six losses in their previous seven games. I expect an emotional letdown for the Mountaineers now. They have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after an upset victory against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with at least seven days between games. Appalachian ranks 217th in the nation in the advanced metrics I rely on — yet in their most recent ten games, they fall to 236th during that span. They only made 43.6% of their shots against Georgia State but that was still tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Mountaineers struggle to score baskets. They are making just 37.8% of their shots in their last five games. They rank 227th nationally with a 3-point shooting percentage of 32.6% while ranking 283rd in the nation by making just 46.7% of their shots inside the arc. Their shooting struggles intensify when playing away from home where they make just 39.3% of their shots. And while they rank 192nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 241st in the nation in that metric when playing on the road. Appalachian State played better at home this season where they ranked 193rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 239th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Norfolk State ranks 208th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and while they rank 252nd when playing at home, they improve to 182nd nationally when playing on the road. They only made 42.4% of their shots in winning the MEAC Championship Game which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But they should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Spartans are still making 46.6% of their shots in their last five games. This is a good shooting team that ranks 32nd in the nation by making 37.4% of their 3-pointers. This is also a team this improving on the other end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 37.6% shooting which resulted in only 58.4 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 65 points. Norfolk State has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They are led by a do-it-all senior point guard in Devante Carter who scores 15.5 PPG while adding 5.3 RPG and 4.0 APG. The Spartans have balanced scoring with six players scoring at least 7.6 PPG. Overall, this team has a nice pedigree to advance (and earn the right to lose to Gonzaga on Saturday).

FINAL TAKE: Norfolk State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Game of the Year with the Norfolk State Spartans (711) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Southern Tigers (716) plus the point(s) versus Mount St. Mary’s (715). THE SITUATION: Texas Southern (16-8) won the Southwest Athletic Conference tournament with their 80-61 upset win against Prairie View A&M as a 1.5-point underdog on March 13th. Mount St. Mary’s (12-10) has won four in a row after winning the Northeast Conference tournament with their 73-68 upset win at Bryant on March 9th. This play-in game for a 16th seed is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: I leaned to Texas Southern — but with the steam all on Mount St. Mary’s which was pushed the oddsmakers to install them as a small favorite this afternoon, the value is now on the Tigers. The conventional wisdom is that in this battle of styles, the Mountaineers will coax Texas Southern into a slower-pace. Maybe … but I still expect the Tigers to outscore Mount St. Mary’s even in a lower-scoring game. Texas Southern is long and fast — and their athleticism could simply overwhelm the Mountaineers. They will have the best player on the court in Michael Weathers. The former Oklahoma State transfer is averaging 16.5 PPG with 5.2 RPG, 3.5 APG, and 2.2 steals-per-game. The Tigers are battle-tested from a non-conference schedule that included Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s, Auburn, and BYU. They have won nine straight games as well as 14 of their last 15. Texas Southern is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have scored at least 80 points in two straight games and in four of their last five games — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. Texas Southern ranks 227th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they rise to 175th in that metric when playing on the road. Mount St. Mary’s ranks 212th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 281st when on the road. The Mountaineers play elite defense with a frontline that boasts three players at 6’9. They rank 15th nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5%. Duly noted. But while they have an overall opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.5%, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against opponents who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. Mount St. Mary's struggles to score baskets. While they are 239th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 281st nationally when playing on the road. Even if this is a low-scoring game, the Mountaineers will need to score. Texas Southern uses their athleticism to help them make 45% of their shots — and Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: A weakness of Texas Southern is that they can be sloppy with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 21.5% of their possessions, ranking 295th nationally. Yet Mount St. Mary’s does not try to force turnovers as they rank 308th in the nation with a defensive turnover rate of 16.4%. The Mountaineers only forced 8 turnovers against Bryant — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not forcing more than 8 turnovers in their last game. Texas Southern is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games on a neutral court. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Texas Southern Tigers (716) plus the point(s) versus the Mount St. Mary’s (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (707) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (708) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (20-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in the Conference USA Championship Game in a 61-57 upset loss to North Texas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Saint Mary’s (14-9) last played on March 8th when they lost to Gonzaga by a 78-55 score as an 18.5-point underdog in the West Coast Conference tournament semifinals. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky took the Mean Green to overtime despite making only 34.0% of their shots in what was a season-low. And while they held North Texas to just 39.3% shooting, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. Head coach Rick Stansbury’s team should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after an upset loss to a Conference USA rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 60 points in their last game. The Hilltoppers are led by an NBA prospect in junior Charles Bassey who scores 17.7 PPG and pulls down 11.5 RPG. They will be without senior Carson Williams who is out for this game due to personal reasons — but the senior was only scoring 7.5 PPG, and Stansbury’s team is blessed with depth. Western Kentucky beat Alabama earlier in the season so the potential is high for this team. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games as an underdog. Saint Mary’s may have more trouble getting up for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Gaels made only 36.1% of their shots against the Bulldogs -- but they have not shot better than 39.5% of their shots in five straight games. Saint Mary’s replaced their top three scorers from last season — and they simply were not a good shooting team this year. After ranking 4th in the nation by nailing 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc last year, the Gaels plummeted to 328th nationally by making only 29.3% of their 3-pointers. The problem for Randy Bennett is that the Hilltoppers interior play is the strength of their defense with Bassey patrolling the paint. Western Kentucky limited their opponents to just 45.8% shooting inside the arc, 38th best nationally. As it is, Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after not shooting better than 40% in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after not shooting better than 40% in four straight contests. To compound matters, the Gaels played their best when at home where they were 9-3 and ranked 40th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Saint Mary’s had a losing 5-6 record away from home while dropping to ranking 115th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Their offensive numbers tell the story: while ranking 128th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they are 269th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Gaels lack quality wins — their highest-profile win was against Colorado State who is in the NIT. They had troubling losses to Pepperdine and Santa Clara. The oddsmakers are relying on statistical projection models that are vulnerable because of the lack of a large sample size of non-conference play that can help accurately gauge relative conference strengths. I suspect Saint Mary’s gets exposed in this game as being just not very good. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.

FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games played in the postseason. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games as an underdog playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT First Round Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (707) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (657) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (658) in the championship game in the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (21-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 68-67 upset win against Michigan as a 5-point underdog yesterday. Illinois (22-6) has won five in a row with their 82-71 win against Iowa as a 3-point favorite yesterday. The Big Ten tournament is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Ohio State won yesterday despite making only 35.1% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last three games and their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last 14 games. The Buckeyes are making 46.2% of their shots away from home — and they rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Chris Holtmann’s team can score. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Buckeyes have also covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing their third game in five days. This is a veteran, battle-tested team — they have won 30 of their last 41 games with 32 of those games in the rugged Big Ten over the last two seasons. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when getting up to 6 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in a victory against a Big Ten opponent in their last game. And while the Illini raced out to a 45-37 halftime lead yesterday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games on the road after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. Illinois has covered the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Furthermore, the Illini has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court with the number in the 145 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 25 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points, Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of these games. The Illini ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they fall to 26th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. This team also makes only 68.8% of their free throws, ranking 247th nationally. If Illinois is leading in this game, the Buckeyes may still be able to scratch out a point spread cover by playing the fouling game. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 tournament championship games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season showdowns with Ohio State winning in Champagne by an 87-81 score on January 16th before getting upset in Columbus on March 6th by a 73-68 score as a 2.5-point favorite. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 61 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (657) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (634) minus the points versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (633) in the championship game of the Big West tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (20-4) has won four games in a row with their 71-55 win against Cal-Davis as a 10.5-point favorite yesterday. UC-Irvine (17-8) has won six in a row after their 78-61 win against UC-Riverside as a 1.5-point favorite last night. The Big West tournament is being played in the Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Santa Barbara won last night despite making only 42.6% of their shots which was tied for their lowest mark in their last four games. The Gauchos are still making 47.3% of their shots on the road which is generating 75.1 PPG — and they are outscoring their opponents away from home by +6.9 PPG. UC-Santa Barbara’s offense has executed much better when playing away from home. While the Gauchos rank 136th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they improve to 67th in offensive efficiency when playing on the road. UC-Santa Barbara is 37th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% — and they are also 14th nationally in free throw rate. The Gauchos should feed off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning at least two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after winning at least three in a row. And in their last 11 games after winning at least four in a row, head coach Joe Pasternack’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games. The Gauchos did not commit one turnover last night either — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after not turning the ball over in their previous game. Additionally, UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. The Anteaters are also 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread win. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. And while the Anteaters have covered the point spread in twice of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after covering two of their last three games. UC-Irvine made 46% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But this team makes only 41.1% of their shots on the road which generates only 66.5 PPG. While the Anteaters rank 110th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they plummet to a 144th ranking in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119th nationally when playing at home — they are 272nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. Overall, UC-Irvine ranks 284th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 47.3%. The Anteaters’ strength is their defense — they have held their last four opponents to no better than 37.4% shooting. But UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing their last four opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams — but both of those games were played on their home court in December. UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Year with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (634) minus the points versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (629) and the Grand Canyon Antelopes (630) in the championship game in the Western Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (12-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 78-62 win against Utah Valley State as a 6-point favorite last night. Grand Canyon (16-6) has won three of their last four games with their 81-47 win against Seattle as a 6.5-point favorite last night. The WAC tournament is being played at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Mexico State has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Aggies have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread when laying the points in two straight games. New Mexico State is improving on defense last in the season after holding the Wolverines to just 29.8% shooting last night. They have held their last five opponents to just 37.7% shooting which is limiting these foes to only 59.2 PPG. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the number set no higher than 129.5. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Grand Canyon made 50% of their shots last night which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Antelopes have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Grand Canyon is also playing their best defense of the season in March after holding Seattle to just 28.3% shooting. They have held their last five opponents to just 37.8% shooting which has produced only 60.8 PPG. The Antelopes have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. Grand Canyon has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Antelopes have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Grand Canyon swept the two games in the regular season — and New Mexico State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (629) and the Grand Canyon Antelopes (630). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iona Gaels (613) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (614) in the championship game of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Iona (11-5) won their fifth game in a row with their 70-64 win against Niagara as a 6-point favorite yesterday. Fairfield (10-16) pulled off their fourth straight upset yesterday in a 52-47 upset victory against St. Peter’s as a 6-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.

REASONS TO TAKE  THE GAELS MINUS THE POINTS: Fairfield upset Manhattan twice in a row before dispatching Monmouth before the St. Peter’s yesterday. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row — St. Peter’s is ranked 220 by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy while he has Monmouth 228 and Manhattan at 316. Iona is a significant step up in competition — Pomeroy ranks them 185th with some of the other power rankings I use placing them in the 140s. Look for the Stags’ bubble to burst. They are just 9-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 50 points. The Peacocks are a great defensive team — but these Gaels are in another class when it comes to the offense so this will be a much harder test on the Stags’ defensive play this afternoon. As it is, Fairfield ranks 273rd nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is worse than their 258th ranking in that metric when playing at home. The Stags are going to struggle to keep up as they only make 39.8% of their shots on the road which is generating just 60.5 PPG. Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 55 points. And in their last 5 games when playing their third game in five days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. Iona leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are averaging 75.2 PPG in their last five games. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row after conference rivals. The Gaels have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their second game in three days. Iona has been more effective away from home. While they rank 175th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they rise to 122nd nationally in that metric on the road. They rank 41st nationally and tops in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 36.3% shooting which is resulting in only 63.0 PPG. While they are outscoring their opponents by +6.1 PPG this season, they have outscored their last five opponents by +12.2 PPG during their winning streak. Iona is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. They are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Iona will also have a chip on their shoulder to avenge a 67-52 upset loss at home to Fairfield on December 12th as a 7.5-point underdog. The Gaels ahem covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when avenging an upset loss as a favorite of at least 7 points. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Iona Gaels (613) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (603) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (604) in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Iowa (21-7) has won four straight games as well as eight of their last nine with their 62-57 win against Wisconsin as a 5-point favorite yesterday. Illinois (21-6) has won four in a row as well with their 90-68 victory against Rutgers as an 8.5-point underdog yesterday. The Big Ten tournament is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois had a laugher yesterday in their 22-point win against the Scarlet Knights. They made 52.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But the Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they raced out to a 47-28 halftime lead, Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. The Fighting Illini have covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 67 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Illinois has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Furthermore, the Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points. Iowa survived the Badgers yesterday despite making only 40.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They made only 2 of their 20 shots from behind the arc yesterday — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not shooting better than 20% from 3-point range. Iowa ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they rank eighth nationally in that metric over their last ten games in demonstrating a dramatic improvement in play on that end of the court. Iowa is 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: The Hawkeyes will be looking to avenge an 80-75 loss to Illinois on January 29th. Expect a close game with Iowa in a position to pull the upset. 10* CBB Iowa-Illinois CBS-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (603) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (604). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Valley State Wolverines (866) plus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (865) in the Semifinals of the Western Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley State (10-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 74-64 loss at Grand Canyon as a 7-point underdog. New Mexico State (11-7) won their fourth straight game as well as their sixth of their last seven in a 77-61 victory against Utah Rio Grande Valley last night as a 12-point favorite. The WAC tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley State is rested and motivated by revenge tonight. In their last loss to Grand Canyon last week, they allowed the Antelopes to make 50% of their shots in the worst defensive effort in their last six games. Utah Valley State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Wolverines have also covered the points spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Utah Valley State tends to play better on the road where they rank 169th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency as opposed to their 198th ranking when playing at home. The Wolverines are just 271st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they climb to 110th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. It is as if head coach Mark Madsen has constructed his team to be the slayers of this New Mexico State team that has been the perennial powerhouse in the WAC. The Aggies are typically one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation — this season, they rank 11th in the nation by rebounding 36.0% of their missed shots. But the Wolverines limit their opponents to rebounding only 23.9% of their missed shots, 33rd in the nation. Utah Valley also draws tons of fouls — they are third nationally in free throw rate. New Mexico State is 202nd in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And while they make a healthy 47.5% of their shots, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. New Mexico State made 52% of their shots last night which was the highest field goal percentage in their last five games. But the Aggies are still only making 40.7% of their shots on the road — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance tonight. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a WAC foe by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win by at least 15 points. New Mexico State has won their last four games by double-digits — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning four in a row by 10 or more points. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games with the Wolverines winning the first game on February 19th by a 69-66 score as a 9-point underdog before losing to the New Mexico State, 67-60, on February 20th. Look for this third and final meeting to be a close game where having the points will be very valuable. 25* CBB WAC Game of the Year is on the Utah Valley State Wolverines (866) plus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (865). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (854) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (853) in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida State (15-5) advanced in their quarterfinals matchup with Duke when the Blue Devils pulled out of the tournament after a positive COVID test yesterday. North Carolina (18-9) has won three in a row after their 81-73 win against Virginia Tech as a -0.5-point favorite yesterday. The ACC tournament is being played at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: Florida State not only dodged Duke yesterday but they gained a situational edge with an extra day of rest against a Tar Heels’ team playing their third game in three days. Leonard Hamilton may very well be the most underrated head coach in the country (all sports) -- and his teams play with energy and a fast pace. Look for the Seminoles to pull away late in this game — they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing just their second game in eight days. Florida State will be anxious to get the back taste out of their mouth when they last played on Saturday when they were upset at Notre Dame by an 83-73 score as a 5.5-point favorite in a result that cost them the top seed in this tournament. The Seminoles allowed the Irish to make 42.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Florida State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games under Hamilton. North Carolina may be due for a letdown after their nice recent run. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three in a row. And while North Carolina has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering four of their last five. Roy Williams’ team leads the nation in offensive rebounding — and they are at their best when controlling the glass. They have outrebounded their two opponents in the ACC Tournament by 11 and 23 boards. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least rebounds. Florida State pounds the offensive glass as well — they rank 16th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. North Carolina ranks third in the ACC and 60th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop to 12th in the ACC and 76th nationally when playing on the road. This is not a good shooting team — they only make 31.6% of their shots from behind the arc which is 273rd in the nation. They rely on shots inside the arc where they make 49.5% of their 2-point attempts — but that is only 101st in the nation. The Seminoles play tough interior defense — they rank 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 44.2% shooting inside the arc. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting up to 3 points. And while Florida State averages 79.6 PPG, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who score at least 77 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season encounters — but North Carolina won the last battle in a 78-70 upset win in Chapel Hill as a 2-point dog on February 27th. Florida State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (854) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (853). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (15-9) won their second game in a row along with their sixth in their last nine contests with their 61-55 win against Old Dominion as a 4-point favorite last night. Louisiana Tech (21-6) has won six in a row with their 75-69 win against FAU as a 7-point favorite yesterday. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green Under last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 58th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green allowed the Monarchs to make 44.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. North Texas are sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 79th nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 51.6%. They only made 38.2% of their shots last night. In their last five games, they are averring only 64.2 PPG while making 43.8% of their shots — a drop off of more than six PPG from their season average where they are making 48.2% of their shots. The Mean Green have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, North Texas has played 33 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a win on the road by six points or less. And in their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while last night’s game finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Bulldogs have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. Louisiana Tech ranks 37th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they improve to 24th nationally in that metric on the road. But while they rank 91st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, that mark plummets to 240th when on the road. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech will be looking to avenge a 57-55 loss to the Mean Green in Denton on February 6th. The Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders when playing with revenge — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (811) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (812) in the Quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Maryland (16-12) looks to build off their 68-57 win against Michigan State yesterday as a 2-point favorite. Michigan (19-3) hopes to bounce-back from a 70-64 loss at Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Big Ten tournament is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan will likely be without senior guard Eli Brooks for at least this game after be sprained his ankle on Sunday. Losing Brooks is devastating for this team. Not only is one of the top-two defenders on this team, but he is glue for the offense with his steady hand on the floor. Two of the Wolverines’ three losses (Michigan State and Minnesota) occurred with Brooks on the sidelines for most or all of the game — and that is not a coincidence. Without Brooks, head coach Juwan Howard has to use Zeb Jackson for up to 10 minutes — and the freshman is simply not ready for prime-time action. Jackson is a huge drop-off on defense and he is not as comfortable executing the complex offense with NBA principles that Howard has brought to his alma mater. Howard is a fantastic coach — but Jackson puts a limit on what he can do. Maryland defeated Sparty yesterday despite making only 38.2% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last nine games. The Spartans made 41.5% of their shots which was actually the Terrapins’ worst defensive effort in their last five games. I discussed yesterday about how good Maryland plays defense on the road. The Terrapins have been on my radar ever since I realized how good of defense they are playing away from home (for our Big Ten Total of the Year last Wednesday). While they rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after yesterday, they rise to 5th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. Wow — even better than yesterday! Maryland has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing their second game in three days. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on a neutral court as an underdog. And while the Wolverines make 38.6% of their 3-pointers, the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams making at least 37% of their 3-point attempts.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan swept the two meetings between these teams in the regular season after crushing Maryland on January 19th by an 87-63 score as a 13.5-point favorite. The Terrapins have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road when avenging a loss of 20 or more points. Without Brooks, this shapes up to be a nervy opening game for Michigan who could feel the pressure of losing their expected number one seed in the Big Dance next week. 10* CBB Friday Morning Tip-Off with the Maryland Terrapins (811) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (14-9) defeated Middle Tennessee last night, 76-56, as a 15.5-point favorite in their opening game of this tournament. Old Dominion (15-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 60-57 loss at Western Kentucky as a 7-point underdog. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 57th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green held the Blue Raiders to just a 34.0% field goal percentage last night. North Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And in their last 11 games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas plays excellent half-court defense. They rank 27th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.4% — and by holding their opponents to just 44.9% shooting inside the arc, they rank 21st in the nation. The Mean Green are also sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 71st nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. They made 54.5% of their shots last night which is the best shooting mark in their last four games — yet it is due for regression tonight. North Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Old Dominion has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Monarchs only made 38.9% of their shots but that continued a disturbing trend for them when playing away from home. Old Dominion ranks 138th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they drop to 236th in that metric on the road. But simultaneously, their defense improves when playing away from home where they rank 121st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency as compared to their 164th ranking when playing at home. And in their last five games, the Monarchs have held their opponents to just 61.6 PPG on 37.8% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion has played 40 of their last 52 games on a neutral court Under the Total — including 10 of their last 11 games in tournament action. They have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. North Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on a neutral court when favored. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Niagara (80-10) takes the court again for the first time since February 21st when they had their two-game winning streak snapped at home to Siena by a 66-61 score as a 5-point underdog. Marist (12-8) won their third in a row on March 1st in a 65-52 win against Quinnipiac as a 2-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for the Purple Eagles to be rusty in facing live competition for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with at least seven days of rest between games. They allowed Siena to make 50% of their shots the last time out so tightening up on defense will be a priority. Niagara has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival including six of those eight situations this season. The Purple Eagles struggle to shoot the basketball away from home. While they rank third in the conference and 166th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to sixth in the conference and 280th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. They have an effective field goal percentage of 42.9%, ranking 335th in the nation, when playing in true road games or on neutral courts. And they choose to get back on defense rather than crash the glass — they are 287th in the nation by rebounding only 22.7% of their missed shots on the road. They average only 59.7 PPG away from home with a 37.5% field goal percentage. They do hold teams to just a 42.4% shooting percentage on the road. While ranking 285th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark does improve to 235th in the nation when playing on the road. Niagara has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of up to three points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. And in their last 5 games against tams with a winning record, the Under is 3-1-1. Marist has played 4 of their last 5 games under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Foxes can play some defense — they are 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8%, ranking 18th in the nation. They allow 64.4 PPG when playing away from home on 39.7% shooting. Marist has played 4 straight Unders when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. But while the Foxes rank sixth in their conference and 276th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 321st in the nation and tenth in the MAAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Over their last five games, they are scoring only 59.2 PPG on 39.7% shooting — but they are allowing just 58.2 PPG on 34.6% shooting from the field. Marist has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Niagara won the last meeting between these two teams on January 2nd by an 86-76 score — and Marist has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge including three of their four opportunities this season. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (674) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (673) in the second round of the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (18-8) has lost four games in a row after their 73-68 upset loss to Illinois as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Minnesota (14-14) snapped a seven-game losing streak yesterday in a 51-46 upset win against Northwestern as a 1-point underdog. The Big Ten tournament is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota played one of their best games of the season yesterday. They held the Wildcats to just 31.0% shooting which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 18 games. And while they made only 36.7% of their shots, that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Golden Gophers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while that game flew Under the 139 point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a game that finished Under the Total. Minnesota is much better when playing at home where they rank 37th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They plummet to 110th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Golden Gophers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against Big Ten opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court as an underdog. Minnesota has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a dog. Ohio State should bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. The Buckeyes only made 40% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 11 games — and the 51.9% shooting they surrendered to the Illini was the worst defensive effort in their last three contests. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes will be looking to avenge a 77-60 loss at Minnesota on January 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 20* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Ohio State Buckeyes (674) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (673). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (701) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (702) in the second round of the SEC tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (14-13) has lost two of their last three games with their 78-71 loss at Auburn as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kentucky (9-15) has won four of their last six games with their 92-64 blowout win against South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. The SEC tournament is being played at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Bettors are on Kentucky this morning with the expectation that John Calipari’s team will make a Hail Mary run in this tournament since that is their only chance to make the Big Dance next week. They made 49.3% of their shots on Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. They also held the Gamecocks to 38.2% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last three games. But the personality of this team has been consistent inconsistency — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a point spread win. They are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. This Wildcats team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Mississippi State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they are 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulldogs are outstanding on the offensive glass — they rank 12th in the nation by pulling down 35.7% of their missed shots. This ability should keep them in this game as Kentucky allows their opponents to pull down 30.2% of their missed shots, ranking 261st in the nation. Rebounding travels — and so does defense. Mississippi State is 26th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. These attributes explain why the Bulldogs play so well away from home. While the Bulldogs rank 73rd in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home, they rise to 55th in the nation in that metric when playing on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky won the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-73 score on January 2nd — but Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 49 of the last 79 games when avenging a same-season loss. 10* CBB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (701) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (672) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Michigan State Spartans (671) in the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Maryland (15-12) looks to bounce-back from a 66-61 upset loss at home to Penn State as a 6-point favorite on Monday. Michigan State (15-11) has won five of their last seven games after their 70-64 upset victory against Michigan as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Maryland had been riding a five-game winning streak before getting upset against Northwestern and then the Nittany Lions. The Terrapins have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after suffering two straight upset losses — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games, Maryland has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two in a row in the Big Ten. Michigan State made 44.4% of their shots against the Wolverines which is both not great but yet their best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win. Furthermore, the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by 6 points or less. 

FINAL TAKE: Maryland has been on my radar ever since I realized how good of defense they are playing away from home (for our Big Ten Total of the Year last Wednesday). While they rank 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they rise to 10th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road games against teams with a winning record. Sparty thinks they are in the Big Dance — but a loss in this one may burst their bubble and they will be feeling that pressure. 20* CBB Thursday Morning Tip Off with the Maryland Terrapins (672) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Michigan State Spartans (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (648) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (647) in the second round of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (13-9) enters the Conference USA Tournament on a three-game losing streak after getting upset at home against UAB as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Middle Tennessee (5-17) has lost six games in a row after their 63-54 loss at FAU as a 10-point underdog on March 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE NORTH TEXAS MINUS THE POINTS: North Texas was upset twice at home over the weekend against the Blazers last weekend. They should play better tonight to take advantage of the opportunity to get the bad taste of their mouths from last week. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. The Mean Green rank 82nd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they are only 89th in that metric when playing at home, they improve to 77th nationally when playing away from home. North Texas is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 120s. Middle Tennessee shot only 29.3% from the field last Friday — but that is not likely an outlier since that is exactly what they shot in their previous game. The Blue Raiders did hold the Owls to 45.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six contests. This is Middle Tennessee’s third game since last Thursday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing their third game in a week. The Blue Raiders rank 277th in the Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they improve to 230th when playing at home, they fall to 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when play on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 16 games when playing on a neutral court. This is a team going nowhere who also lost their leading scorer, Dontrell Shuler, who left the program last month.

FINAL TAKE: I tend to shy away from double-digit point spread since the end game that is detached from the actual winner and loser can wreak havoc with the point spread. But I take solace in the fact for this situation that the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games as a double-digit underdog — and the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as a double-digit favorite including all four games this season. 10* CBB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the North Texas Mean Green (648) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102) in the Quarterfinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-20) snapped a twelve-game losing streak last Friday in an 82-59 win at Mississippi Valley State as a 10.5-point favorite. Jackson State (11-5) has won eleven in a row with their 79-54 win against Alabama State as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. The SWAC tournament is being played at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Lions nailed 53.3% of their shots last Friday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. Yet Arkansas-Pine Bluff is just 333rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 345th nationally by making just 41.9% of the shots inside the arc. The Golden Lions have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while their victory on Friday finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing an Over. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the SWAC while ranking 258th nationally in that metric. But when playing away from home, they plummet to eighth in the SWAC and 331st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make only 39.6% of their shots inside the road away from home, ranking 345th while averaging just 58.9 PPG on 37.0% shooting. But, their defensive performances have been better on the road where they rank 8th in the SWAC and 333th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — not great numbers but better than their 10th ranking in the conference and 343rd mark nationally when at home. The Golden Lions have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Jackson State made 54.5% of their shots last Saturday in what was their best shooting performance of the season. The Tigers have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a victory against a conference rival. Jackson State has also played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. I was pleasantly surprised to discover upon my deep dive that the Tigers have the second-lowest effective field goal percentage of 43.3% in the nation. They also limit their opponents to just 42.4% shooting inside the arc, ranking fourth in the nation, so it is going to be very difficult for the Golden Lions to score easy baskets. Jackson State has held their last five opponents to just 52.0 PPG on 38.2% shooting — and they have not allowed even 60 points in six straight games. The Golden Lions have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight games. But scoring is the problem for this team as they rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They score only 60.1 PPG on the road on 38.5% shooting. They have played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Jackson State has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Jackson State swept the two regular-season games this season — defeating Arkansas-Pine Bluff by a 64-58 score on March 1st after beating them 63-55 on February 1st. The Golden Lions have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB SWAC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (815) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (816) in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Manhattan (7-12) enters the conference tournament having lost three of four after their 85-74 upset loss at home to these Stags as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Fairfield (7-16) has won two of their last three games. The MAAC tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Manhattan allowed the Stags to make 49.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. Manhattan is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset loss. The Jaspers rank 287th in Adjusted Net Efficiency overall this season — but they fall to 308th in that metric when playing on their home court. Manhattan fares better on the road where they rise to a 259th ranking in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on a neutral court when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 opening games in a tournament. Fairfield enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last six games with that effort on Friday. But the Stags make only 39.5% of their shots away from home which generates only 59.7 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory. Fairfield has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games including five of their seven games after an upset win this season. The Stags are also just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a win while failing to cover the point spread in five of their last six games after a victory this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%.

FINAL TAKE: Manhattan has covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 opportunities to avenge a loss at home this season. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Manhattan Jaspers (815) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (816). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). THE SITUATION: Mount St. Mary’s (11-10) advanced to the finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament Championship Game with their 66-60 upset win at Wagner as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Bryant (15-5) reached the championship game with an 85-55 win against Sacred Heart as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers made 47.8% of their shots on Saturday — but they have just a 42.7% shooting percentage on the road which generates 63.0 PPG. Mount St. Mary’s is much better on the offensive end of the court when playing at home where they rank 237th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and fifth in conference action. When playing away from home in true road games (not including neutral courts), their adjusted offensive efficiency plummets to 305th nationally and ninth in Northeast Conference play. Yet the Mountaineers tighten up on defense when playing on an opponent’s home court — they rank 127th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency on the road which is a bit better than their 133rd ranking in that metric when playing at home. The team trends validate this observation. Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. The Mountaineers have also played 19 of their last 25 road games Under the Total in the 130s. Mount St. Mary’s has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have covered the point spread in their last three games while not allowing more than 65 points in those contests. The Mountaineers have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They hold their conference opponents to 60.9 PPG on 39.3% shooting. Bryant made a season-high 63.6% of their shots on Saturday in the win — but not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. The Bulldogs also played their best defensive game of the season in terms of the opponent’s field goal percentage but that is an effort that is more likely to carry over tonight. Bryant has held their last five opponents to just 37.9% shooting which is resulting in just 62.6 PPG — as compared to their 74.9 PPG and 41.0% opponent’s marks for the season. The Bulldogs’ defense has improved but we are still getting value with the number. Bryant has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a home win against conference rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They host this game where they rank 124 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency as compared to playing on the road where their adjusted defensive efficiency drops to 196th in the nation. But get this: Bryant’s adjusted offensive efficiency is 159th at home but improves to 99th nationally on the road. This is a team that plays better defense but worse offense on their home court. The team trends bear this out as well. They have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total including six of their eight home games this season. They have also played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: I am extra cautious before investing in games from lower-tier conferences — but we have good sample sizes in March (even with COVID cancellations) and the evidence far exceeds my minimum expectations for this situation (after doing the deep dive work as this Report hopefully demonstrates). A final touch: Bryant has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s while Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the over/under in the 130 to 139.5 point range. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (14-10) has won three in a row after their 76-65 win against North Dakota as a 7.5-point favorite yesterday. South Dakota State (16-6) has also won three in a row with their 84-71 victory against Nebraska-Omaha. This game is being played at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls in a semi-home game for the Jackrabbits given the proximity to their campus.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles made only 44.8% of their shots yesterday which was tied for the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Oral Roberts has played 40 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while that game finished below the 154 point total, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing an Under. This is the Golden Eagles’ second game since last Sunday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing their second game in a week. They are scoring 84.0 PPG in their last five games — and their combined scores in their last five games are +4.1 points above their season average. Additionally, Oral Roberts has played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a dog. South Dakota State made 53.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. This is the Jackrabbits’ second game since last Saturday — not only have they played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days but they have played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. They are making 57.1% of their shots over their last five games — but they are allowing their last five opponents to make 47.1% of their shots which is a few notches above their 43.1% defensive field goal percentage. They have scored at least 84 points in their last two games — and they have then played 26 of their last 39 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Jackrabbits have also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their 7 games Over the Total when favored on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts will be looking to avenge a 95-80 loss to South Dakota State on February 14th — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Drexel Dragons (757) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (758) in the Quarterfinals of the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. THE SITUATION: Drexel (9-7) looks to build off the momentum of their 84-78 upset win at James Madison as a 1.5-point underdog back on February 26th. Charleston (9-9) takes to the court again for the first time since February 20th when they defeated Columbus State in a non-boarded game, 86-83. This game is being played at the Atlantic Union Bank Center in Harrisburg, Virginia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES MINUS THE POINTS: Drexel should be comfortable playing on this court with it being the home of James Madison who they just defeated in this building. While the Dragons made 49.1% of their shots in that game, that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Drexel has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the CAA — and they rank 28th in the nation by making 54.6% of their shots inside the arc. Defense travels — but so does making shots closer to the basket. The Dragons are a more effective team when playing on the road. While they rank 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they fall to 192nd nationally when playing on their home court. But when Drexel is playing on neutral courts or the opposing team’s court, they rise to 123rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when favored. Drexel also allowed the Dukes to make 50.9% of their shots in their last game which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests — so they should play better on that end of the court. Charleston has won four of their last five games — but they are likely to be rusty having not played in more than two weeks. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with more than seven days between games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home where they scored at least 85 points, so any potential momentum is likely a moot point. COVID has it the Colonial Athletic Association hard would plenty of games canceled — that is why the team added their glorified scrimmage with Columbus State. The most recent Division One opponent they have faced was Elon back on February 14th — and they were upset by 11 points as an 8-point favorite. Incredibly, this is just their third game away from home in conference action this season. The Cougars rank 215th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency but fall to 231st in that metric when playing away from home. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Expectations were pretty high for this season entering the season — but they lost their best player, Brevin Galloway, to a season-ending leg injury in December. Charleston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The cherry on top for this situation is that Drexel will be motivated by double-revenge. They lost twice on the road to the Cougars this season in early-January by a combined six points with the last meeting being on January 10th in a 73-68 upset loss as a 2-point favorite. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Year with the Drexel Dragons (757) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (644) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (643). THE SITUATION: Creighton (17-7) lost their second-straight game on Wednesday in a 72-60 loss at Villanova. Butler (9-13) won their second-straight game with their 73-61 upset victory against Villanova last Sunday as a 12.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS: Creighton made only 38.7% of their shots against the Wildcats in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. Their loss to Villanova came after an upset loss at Xavier last Saturday. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 70 games after losing two in a row. The program is also dealing with the Greg McDermott controversy regarding his comments after the loss against the Musketeers — he has been suspended by the team and will not be on the sidelines. Creighton is a better team when playing at home. While they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 15th nationally when measuring play on home courts. They are outscoring their guests by +14.5 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. The Bluejays have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games against teams with a losing record. Butler made 50% of their shots against the Wildcats in the best shooting effort in their last ten games. They also held Villanova to just 36.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last ten games. Yet the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. Butler is a much better team when playing at home. They rank 108th in Adjusted Net Efficiency overall with 107th mark in that metric when playing at home. But Butler falls to 132nd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Creighton will want to avenge a 70-66 upset loss at Butler on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* CBB Butler-Creighton Fox-TV Special with the Creighton Bluejays (644) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.