At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (802) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (801). THE SITUATION: Penn State (7-10) has lost four straight games after their 71-56 loss at home to Michigan State as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. Iowa (14-3) has won eight of their last nine games with their 72-62 win over Ohio State on Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS MINUS THE POINT(S): Penn State has endured a Murderer’s Row stretch in Big Ten play this month. Their four conference opponents so far this month have been at Michigan, Wisconsin, at Nebraska and Michigan State who metrics guru Ken Pomeroy who ranks as the 6th, 16th, 11th and 3rd best teams in the nation respectively. Head coach Pat Chambers returned three double-digit scorers from last year’s team that won the NIT. They have registered an impressive win against a Virginia Tech team that was ranked in the Top-Ten in the nation yesterday (before getting blown out at Virginia). These Nittany Lions play outstanding defense — they rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 15 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Penn State has covered the points spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 60 points. They shot just 36.7% from the field against the Spartans after making only 36.2% of their shots against Wisconsin in their previous game — but they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after failing to make at least 37% of their shots in two straight games. Chambers needs to get his team sharing the ball more as they have registered only 9 and 11 assists in their last two games. The Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to earn more than 13 assists in each of their last two games. Facing this Hawkeyes team will help who rank second-to-last in the Big Ten after eight games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Iowa held the Buckeyes to just a 37.3% opponent’s field goal percentage in their last game which was the best defensive effort they have had in their last five games. Now the Hawkeyes go back on the road where they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games — and they are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. In Iowa’s last seven trips to Penn State, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Nittany Lions are better than their record — they have played only eight of their seventeen games on their home court (going 5-3) and the six teams they have faced in Big Ten play all rank 32nd or better in the nation according to Pomeroy’s numbers. This is the most winnable game Penn State has yet seen in conference play this season — and they are facing a Hawkeyes team that is playing just their seventh time this year in a hostile environment. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Penn State Nittany Lions (802) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (801). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (643). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (12-4) looks to bounce-back from an 83-62 loss to Louisville on Saturday despite being an 11-point favorite. Notre Dame (11-5) enters this game coming off a 69-66 victory over Boston College as a 5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina played their worst game of the season on Saturday. They made only 34.5% of their shots which their worst shooting performance of the season. This is not a great 3-point shooting team and they got lulled into launching too many 3s as they tried to get back into that game — they made just 3 of their 22 shots from behind the arc. They also allowed the Cardinals to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. Louisville found success against the Tar Heels because they kept them off the offensive glass while also limiting their second-chance opportunities. Roy Williams team is at its best when it is pushing the pace which allows the athleticism of his players to shine. He should get a better effort from his team tonight as they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games after an upset loss to an ACC rival. North Carolina has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss a home. That was the Tar Heels first loss at home in eight games this season. They are still outscoring their visitors by +19.4 PPG due to their potent scoring prowess as they average 90.0 PPG while making 48.1% of their shots. North Carolina also hold their guests to a 39.4% field goal percentage. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored in the 12.5 to 18 point range. North Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against ACC opponents. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — all against ACC foes. They are not likely to replicate Louisville’s formula for success. The Fighting Irish allow their opponents to pull down 28.9% of their missed shots which is 196th in the nation. North Carolina is 26th in the nation in pulling down 35.2% of their missed shots. The Tar Heels should also have more transition opportunities when considering that the Irish are making only 40.9% of their shots over their last five games. Notre Dame is likely to suffer a letdown tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. And while the Fighting Irish have won five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 1-3 this season while making only 42.3% of their shots. Head coach Mike Brey has a limited roster due to injuries and defections. He is down to just six scholarship players which has compelled him to start three freshman. Two of his key rotation players are questionable for this game with T.J Gibbs and Juwan Durham both questionable for tonight’s game with injuries. These are not encouraging developments when considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games as a double-digit underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame will be overmatched tonight against an angry Tar Heels team. The Irish’s struggles on offense should put North Carolina in a position to make easy baskets which were this team thrives. 10* CBB Notre Dame-North Carolina ESPN Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (873) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (874). THE SITUATION: Texas (10-6) looks to bounce-back from a 68-62 upset loss to Texas Tech as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Kansas (14-2) has won straight games as well as four of their last five games after their 73-68 win at Baylor on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. The Jayhawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed t cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. This is a team still searching for their identity after they lost their seven-footer Udoka Azubuike to a season-ending hand injury. Sensing the need for more size, head coach Bill Self lifted the red shirt on freshman Ocahi Agbaji who has given the team an instant spark. Frankly, it is troubling that Self felt he had to get the 6’5 frosh into the mix since it does not speak well to his supporting cast. Agbaji does not address the Jayhawks’ size issues now — and this is a team that makes only 34.5% of their 3-pointers. Kansas returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games against Big 12 opponents. The Jayhawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Texas has suffered two straight upset losses as their loss to the Red Raiders was preceded by a 61-58 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3.5-point favorite. But perhaps going on the road with lower expectations as an underdog is just what head coach Shaka Smart’s team needs. Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset loss. The Longhorns have proven they can hang with the best teams in the nation as they have defeated North Carolina and Purdue this season who both are in metrics guru Ken Pomeroy’s top fifteen teams in the nation. Texas has not scored more than 62 points in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to score more than 65 points in at least three straight games. Smart usually has his team playing well in early conference play as the Longhorns have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games played in the month of January. And in their last 46 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points, Texas has covered the point spread 28 times.

FINAL TAKE: Texas usually exceeds point spread expectations when they play in Lawrence as they have covered the point spread in their last 4 trips to Kansas to play the Jayhawks. Expect the Longhorns to keep this game close. 10* CBB Texas-Kansas ESPN Special with the Texas Longhorns (873) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (869) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (870). THE SITUATION: Florida State (13-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 80-78 loss to Duke as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Pittsburgh (11-5) has also lost two of their last three contests with their 86-80 loss at NC State on Saturday as an 11-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Florida State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, the Seminoles have played 27 of their last 37 games Under the total after a loss by 3 points or less. Now this team goes on the road where they are making only 43.1% of their shots. But this Florida State team plays outstanding defense as they rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Seminoles have held their last five opponents to just a 40.6% field goal percentage. Florida State has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-1 in the Seminoles’ last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Pittsburgh has played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total — and this includes them playing six straight games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Now the Panthers return home where they have played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. This team also plays well on the defensive end of the court. They rank 37th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency led by an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.2% which is 13th best in the nation. The Panthers hold their guests to just 65.1 PPG on their home court with a low 38.4% field goal percentage. Pittsburgh has also played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total in ACC play.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for Pittsburgh who are probably on the outside-looking-in right now in earning an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. Defeating Florida State would be the best win on their resume. Expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (869) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (758) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (757). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-2) has won seven of their last eight games with their 72-69 win at Pepperdine last Saturday as an 8-point favorite. Gonzaga (15-2) has won six in a row with their 67-36 blowout win over Pacific on Thursday as a 25.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DONS PLUS THE POINTS: If you like feisty senior point guards, then you will love San Francisco 6’0 Frankie Ferrari who scored the winning 3-point shot with seconds remaining in that win on the road against Pepperdine last week. Ferrari does not turn the ball over — he quarterbacks an offense that is 15th in the nation by only turnover the ball over in 15.3% of their possessions. The Dons returned four starters along with nine players from the rotation that posted 22 victories last season. San Francisco has defeated Saint Mary’s this season — but this team absolutely needs to pull this upset against the Zags to have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. The Dons are a perfect 10-0 at home where they outscore their opponents by +19.7 PPG. San Francisco plays outstanding defense at home where they hold their guests to just 59.2 PPG along with a low 38.1% field goal percentage. The Dons are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games at home — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 55 road games after winning their last two games at home by double-digits. Now the Bulldogs go back on the road where they have lost their only two games. Gonzaga is allowing 85.0 PPG while allowing the six opponents they played away from home shoot 44.4% from the field — and both those marks are much higher than the 67.6 PPG along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 38.6% overall this season. The Bulldogs have played their last six games at home and they go back on the road for the first time since December 15th — and they are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games after playing at least three straight games at home. Gonzaga is also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and in their last 10 trips to San Francisco to play the Dons, they have failed to cover the point spread 8 times.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco was eliminated by Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament last March by a blowout 88-60 score. This is the Dons’ most important regular season game of the year — and they are getting plenty of points by the oddsmakers. An upset is certainly possible — but take the points in what should be a close game. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the San Francisco Dons (758) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (757). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (806) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (805). Wisconsin (11-4) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 71-52 win at Penn State as a 1.5-point favorite. Purdue (9-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 77-59 loss at Michigan State as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin missed the Big Dance for the first time since 1998 but head coach Greg Gard has seen that young team make vast improvements this season. The top seven players from last year’s rotation returned this season led by an All-American candidate in senior forward Ethan Happ. This team is back to executing typical Badgers basketball — they are 28th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while also ranking 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This Wisconsin team is once again very stingy with the basketball as they rank 2nd in the nation by turning the ball over in just 13.6% of their possessions. They are also better implementing their pack-line defense as opponents are making just 30.6% of their shots from behind the arc which is 52nd best in the nation. The Badgers should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing just their second game in a week. Now they stay at home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +19.0 PPG. The Badgers are scoring 80.9 PPG on their home court while hitting 50.4% of their shots — and they are holding their opponents to just 61.9 PPG along with only a 41.5% field goal percentage. Wisconsin is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Purdue is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers have their own outstanding senior in guard Carsen Edwards — but he lacks the supporting cast that he provided four senior leaders last season. Purdue has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Boilermakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Purdue is only 2-6 on the road this year where they are shooting just 42.7% from the field while allowing their home hosts to make 47.0% of their shots. The Boilermakers are both 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games on the road and in their last 11 games away from home against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. The Boilermakers are struggling to score as they are making just 39.9% of their shots over their last five games. They are also just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has registered some nice wins this season against Oklahoma, North Carolina State and Iowa who all rank in metrics guru Ken Pomeroy’s Top-36 teams in the nation. Purdue did also defeat the Hawkeyes but that was in West Lafayette where Edwards’ teammates are more comfortable making their shots. Look for Wisconsin to pull away with the win. 10* CBB Purdue-Wisconsin FS1 Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (806) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (805). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (804) minus the points versus the Wright State Raiders (803). Northern Kentucky (13-4) has won five of their last six games with their 95-73 win at Detroit last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Wright State (8-9) looks to build off their 89-73 win at Oakland last Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky dominated the Titans — they made 57.1% of their shots in that game while limiting them to just a 42.6% field goal percentage. The Norse have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after making at least 55% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last games after a contests where they shot at last 57% from the field while holding their opponent to no better than a 43% field goal percentage. Furthermore, Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a double-digit win — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Head coach John Brannen has built one of the strongest programs in the Horizon League — the Norse represented the conference in the NCAA Tournament two years but just missed out last year to this Wright State team last year after losing to them twice during the regular season (two of their three Horizon League regular season losses) before being relegated to the NIT after getting upset as the top seed in the conference tournament to Cleveland State. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against Horizon League opponents. Now they return home where they are a perfect 10-0 with an average winning margin of +20.0 PPG. The Norse are making 48% of their shots at home while limiting their visitors to just 60.6 PPG on 37.7% shooting. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Wright State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a game where they scored at least 85 points. The Raiders like to create pressure as they rank 2nd in the Horizon by forcing turnovers in 21.3% of their opponent’s possessions — but they are facing a Norse team that only turns it over in 17.0% of their possessions this season which ranks 68th in the country. This is Wright State’s third straight game on the road where they are just 1-7 with an average losing margin of -7.5 PPG. They allowing their home hosts to make 51.8% of their shots which is an ominous proposition against a Northern Kentucky team that leads the Horizon League with both a 61.7% shooting percentage inside the arc and a 60.2% effective field goal percentage. The Raiders will have difficulties keeping up as they make only 43% of their shots on the road — and they have a low 40.5% field goal percentage over their last five games. Wright State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Northern Kentucky was upset as a double-digit favorite at home last January in the first meeting between these two teams. Defeating the Raiders is very important to this team that looks to win the Horizon League and gets back to the Big Dance. 25* CBB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month is on the Northern Kentucky Norse (804) minus the points versus the Wright State Raiders (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (646) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (645). THE SITUATION: Oregon (9-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 77-72 upset loss at home to Oregon State on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. UCLA (9-6) has won their last two games after their 98-83 win over California last Saturday as a 13-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon probably played their worst game of the season in their opening conference game against their in-state rival. The Ducks shot just 37.7% from the field while allowing the Beavers to make 51.0% of their shots — both marks were the worst offensive and defensive field goal percentages of the season. But Oregon has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games that followed playing their previous game at home in Eugene. Oregon is 7-2 at home this season with an average winning margin of +12.7 PPG. The Ducks score 76.7 PPG at home while hitting 47.7% of their shots — and they hold their guests to just 64.0 PPG on low 38.7% field goal shooting. Oregon plays tough defense as they rank 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while holding their opponents to just a 28.8% shooting mark from behind the arc which is 18th best in the country. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 12 of the last 17 games at home — and they have covered in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, Oregon has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games against Pac-12 opponents. UCLA has started their Pac-12 season 2-0 as they preceded their victory over the Golden Bears with a 92-70 win over Stanford. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by double-digits against conference opponents. UCLA entered the season with identical 30-1 odds as Michigan and Michigan State to win the National Championship which speaks to the talent on their roster — but underachieving play led to their head coach Steve Alford being canned last month. The Bruins rank just 108th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 69th in their nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Now they go on the road for just the fourth time this season after losing their first three games away from home by an average losing margin of -21.6 PPG. They are making only 40% of their shots away from home but their defense has been even worse as they are allowing their home hosts to make 50.8% of their shots which has translated into 91.3 PPG. UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. This is just UCLA’s second true road game of the season after playing at Ohio State back on December 9th. The Bruins have since played four straight home games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after playing at least three straight games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon will be motivated to avenge an 86-78 loss to the Bruins in their last meeting back on February 17th. Expect UCLA to get exposed back on the road for the first time in a month. 20* CBB UCLA-Oregon ESPN Special with the Oregon Ducks (646) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (648) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (647). THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-6) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 90-77 loss at Houston as an 8.5-point underdog. East Carolina (8-6) has won two of their last three games after their 72-71 upset win at home over Cincinnati as a big 17.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Pirates are likely to experience a big letdown after their surprising victory over the Bearcats. East Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after a win on their home court. Now this team goes on the road where they are 0-4 this season with an average losing margin of -17.0 PPG. The Pirates shoot only 37.2% on the road which is resulting in just 60.7 PPG. They are also surrendering 77.7 PPG while allowing their home hosts to a 47.7% field goal percentage. East Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Pirates have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against fellow American Athletic Conference opponents. East Carolina is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation as they rank 310th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Pirates are perhaps best at making things difficult for opponents on the 3-point line as they hold their opponents to just a 26.2% shooting mark from behind the arc. But Memphis does not rely on 3-point shooting. Instead, they thrive in creating extra scoring possessions for themselves. The Tigers pull down 34.8% of their missed shots which ranks 32nd the nation. Memphis also forces turnovers in 22.8% of their opponent’s possessions which is 28th best in the country — and this is an area where this game can quickly become out of hand as East Carolina turns it over in 21.8% of their possessions which is 313th worst in the nation. The Tigers shot 48.1% from the field in their loss to a then-undefeated Cougars team which was the worst field game mark they have had in their last four games. Memphis should rebound with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Rookie head coach Penny Hardaway inherited a good team that won 21 games last year. But Tubby Smith was drawing excitement locally with the team averaging just over 6000 in attendance for their home games. Bringing in the local legend and former NBA star has brought excitement to the program again — and Hardaway also added three freshman recruits into the mix led by Tyler Harris. Now the Tigers are averaging over 15,000 in attendance per home game which has helped them go 8-1 on their home court with an average winning margin of +16.4 PPG. Hardaway has his team playing fast to make it fun to play for him and this has resulted in them scoring 93.1 PPG on their home court on 49.7% shooting. Memphis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has yet to register a big win with their victory over South Dakota State (ranking 75th by the Ken Pomeroy advanced metrics). But the style of play that Hardaway has his team playing overwhelms lesser talented foes. East Carolina pulled the upset over a Cincinnati team that plays at a slow pace — but they have not been a very threatening team when playing on the road. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Memphis Tigers (648) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (638) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (637). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (7-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 85-75 loss at UL-Monroe as a 7.5-point underdog. South Alabama (9-6) has won five of their last six games with their 84-77 win over Coast Carolina as a 1-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. The Red Wolves have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Arkansas State returns home to Jonesboro where they are 5-0 this season while scoring 81.0 PPG and outscoring their opponents by +16.4 PPG. The Red Wolves flex their muscles on defense when playing at home as they hold their visitors to host 65.4 PPG along with only a 33.8% field goal percentage. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Red Wolves have also covered the point spread in a decisive 41 of their last 65 home games after playing their last two games on the road. Arkansas State should control the offensive glass in this contest — they pull down 33.5% of their missed shots which ranks 113th in the nation. The Jaguars are very vulnerable to teams that hit the boards when they have the basketball — they are allowing their opponents to rebound 33.2% of their missed shots which is 332nd worst in the country. South Alabama likes to shoot 3s with 43.6% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc. The Jaguars are making a healthy 38.6% of these shots — but the Red Wolves defense the perimeter well by limiting their opponents to just a 32.6% shooting mark from the 3-point line which is 115th best in the country. Arkansas State is very stingy in defending the arc when playing at home — they hold their visitors to just a 23.8% mark from behind the arc. South Alabama has played their last four boarded games Over the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing at least three straight Overs. Now after playing their last six games on the road, the Jaguars go back on the road for the first time since December 5th. South Alabama is 0-5 on the road this year where they are being outscored by -17.5 PPG. They are shooting just 40.5% from the field away from home which is translating into just 61.7 PPG. They are also allowing their home hosts to make 50.2% of their shots. The Jaguars are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread on the road after playing their last three games at home.

FINAL TAKE: These are two middling teams in the Sun Belt — but the Jaguars winning record is skewed with a lack of games away from home. Arkansas State matches up well and plays much better on their home court. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (638) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (800) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Panthers (799). Creighton (10-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 84-69 loss at Butler as a 4.5-point underdog. Marquette (12-3) has won nine of their last ten games after their 70-52 win over Xavier on Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Creighton has bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after a double-digit loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after playing a game on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bluejays have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to a conference rival. And in their last 8 games at home after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Head coach Greg McDermott’s team is not playing very good defense — but this team can shoot the rock. Creighton is 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are 3rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage with a 60.0% mark due to their strong 3-point shooting as they make 42.0% of their 3-point shooting which is 5th best in the nation. Now the Bluejays return home where they are 6-2 this season with an average winning margin of +16.3 PPG. Creighton scores 86.0 PPG on their home court while making 53.3% of their shots along with an incredible 48.6% of their 3-pointers. In the Bluejays’ defense, their play on the defensive end of the court is much better at home as they hold their visitors to just a 43.3% field goal percentage. Creighton has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games again teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Marquette may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a win by at least 15 points. And while the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Marquette held the Musketeers to just a 31.5% field goal percentage which was their second-best defensive effort of the season. But the Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after holding their last opponent to no better than a 33% field goal percentage. Now this team goes back on the road for just the fifth time this season. Marquette has lost both their true road games this year — they are 1-3 overall away from home playing in road or neutral court contests while getting outscored by -12.3 PPG in these contests. The Golden Eagles make just 41.4% of their shots away from home. Even worse, Marquette allows their opponents to make 50% of their shots including 41.9% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home — and this has translated into 84.0 PPG. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: Marquette swept the two-games between these two teams last season. Look for Creighton to flex their shooting muscles back on their home court with the opportunity to avenge those two losses last year. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Creighton Bluejays (800) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Panthers (799). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on  Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Missouri State Bears (623) and the Indiana State Sycamores (624). THE SITUATION: Missouri State (6-9) has lost two straight games after their upset 82-66 loss to Valparaiso on Saturday as a 5-point favorite. Indiana State (9-5) snapped their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 65-60 win over Bradley as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Missouri State has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road after being upset as a home favorite in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 18-7-1 in the Bears’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread setback. Now Missouri State goes back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to shoot 52% from the field which is translating into 83.7 PPG. The Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bears are also scoring 80.6 PPG over their last five contests. They have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total as an underdog. And in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range, Missouri State has played  8 of these games Over the Total. Indiana State has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Sycamores made just 31.4% of their shots on Saturday against Bradley which was the lowest field goal percentage for them this season. But they also experienced an outlier defensive effort by holding Bradley to just a 33.3% field goal percentage which was the second-best defensive effort of the season. Indiana State has still allowed their last five opponents to make 48% of their shots. This team has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a victory at home. The Over is also 18-7-1 in the Sycamores’ last 26 games after a point spread win. Indiana State has played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games Over the Total in their last 5 meetings. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Missouri State Bears (623) and the Indiana State Sycamores (624). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (606) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (605). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (12-2) has won five straight games after their 77-60 win over Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Baylor (8-5) looks to bounce-back from their 85-81 loss at TCU as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cyclones were the toast of the College Basketball punditry world on Saturday after their huge win over the Jayhawks — but they may be due for a letdown now. This is a team that was just 13-18 last season so head coach Steve Promm’s core group of players are not experienced at sustaining success. Iowa State benefited from Bill Self’s decision to not use Udoka Azubuike after he sprained his wrist the day before — that left the Jayhawks without much size and neutralized a vulnerability that the Cyclones had in that matchup with four of their starters in the 6’4 to 6’6 height range. Iowa State also nailed 13 of their 25 shots from behind the arc in that game including making 9 of 13 3-pointers in the second-half of that game. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in each of their last three games while laying points in all three of those contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in at least three straight games. Iowa State now goes on the road where they are making only 44.4% of their shots as compared to their 48.3% field goal percentage overall. The Cyclones only make 32.9% of their 3-pointers when playing on the road which is far below their 36.1% field goal percentage. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games when laying no more than 3 points. Baylor has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Bears have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight contests. Baylor was 19-15 last year after losing in the second round in the NIT but they lost the top four scorers from that team. However, last year was the first time that the Bears did not make the Big Dance so a rebuild may be in order for Scott Drew who brought in two impact transfers and two four-star freshman to the mix this season. 6’9 freshman Matthew Mayer and Yale graduate transfer Makai Mason have played very well for this team while senior King McClure has stepped up his game as the team’s top returning scorer from last year. Baylor’s length should give the Cyclones problems tonight. They are 3rd in the nation by blocking their opponent’s shots in 17.7% of their attempts — and they also rank 16th in the country by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots. The Bears return home where they are 6-2 this season with an average winning margin of +14.7 PPG. Drew once again has his team playing very good on the defensive end of the court. Baylor holds their opponents to just 58.2 PPG when playing at home while limiting their visitors to just a 38.3% field goal percentage. The Bears have also held their last five opponents to just 36.6% shooting. Baylor has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State is due for a letdown after their big win over Kansas — and this Baylor team is very tough when playing at home in Waco. 25* CBB Big 12 Underdog of the Month with Baylor Bears (606) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Hoosiers (809) and the Michigan Wolverines (810). THE SITUATION: Indiana (12-2) has won seven straight games after their 73-65 win over Illinois on Thursday as an 11-point favorite. Michigan (14-0) remained undefeated this season with their 68-55 win over Penn State as an 11-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hoosiers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Now after playing their last three games at home, Indiana goes back on the road where they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing at least three straight at home in Bloomington. The Hoosiers are averaging 78.5 PPG this season while making 52.6% of their shots — but those offensive numbers plummet to just 69.0 PPG along with a 44.5% field goal percentage when they are playing on the road. The Under is 13-3-1 in Indiana’s last 17 games on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. The Hoosiers have also played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Indiana does play outstanding defense as they rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Michigan was ranked tops in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but have dropped to merely third in the country in that metric after some sluggish defensive efforts (along with encountering some hot shooting) in some December contests with South Carolina, Western Michigan, and Air Force. But Big Ten play should re-focus this stellar defensive group that used their skills on that end of the court to reach last year’s National Championship Game. The Wolverines have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They stay at home where they hold their guests to just 55.7 PPG along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39.6%. Michigan has played 4 straight games Under the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Wolverines will need to rely on their defense with one of their spark plugs on offense coming off the bench in Isaiah Livers questionable for this game with a back injury that kept him out of that game with the Nittany Lions earlier this week.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when facing off in Ann Arbor. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 20* CBB Indiana-Michigan O/U CBS-TV Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Hoosiers (809) and the Michigan Wolverines (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (667) and the Tennessee Volunteers (668). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 91-72 win over UMass as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (11-1) has won seven straight contests with their 96-53 win over Tennessee Tech as a big 33-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Georgia enjoyed their best offensive effort of the season in that game as they made 53.8% of their shots from the field — but they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. The Bulldogs also allowed the Minutemen to make 42.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last six contests. First-year head coach Tom Crean has his team playing outstanding defense — they have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 38% and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.7% is 15th lowest in the nation. Now Georgia goes on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow SEC opponents. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against SEC opponents. The Volunteers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The made 63.8% of their shots last Saturday which was their best field goal percentage of the season — but they have then played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 58.0 PPG along with a field goal percentage of 33.5%. Tennessee has also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: This is the conference debut for both teams. The Bulldogs have a tough assignment slowing down this potent Vols scoring attack — but Crean is a good teacher in fundamental defense. However, Georgia may have difficulty scoring given their 68.6 PPG average away from him which over 10 points lower than their season average. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (667) and the Tennessee Volunteers (668). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (805) and the Toledo Rockets (806). Ball State (9-4) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 116-57 win over Delaware State last Saturday as a 29.5-point favorite. Toledo (12-1) looks to build off their 77-45 win over Penn on Saturday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Ball State has also played 7 straight games on the road Over the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. The Cardinals made 55.7% of their shots in that game which was the sixth time in their last seven games where they shot at least 50.9% from the field. Ball State has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after making at least 55% of their shots. This is a veteran team with four returning starters along with three impact transfers from last year’s team that finished 19-13. The Cardinals are 39th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while ranking 11th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%. Ball State makes 38.2% of their 3-point shots which is the 36th best mark in the nation. They go on the road where they are making 49.2% of their shots while scoring 76.0 PPG and allowing 77.0 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Cardinals have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Toledo has played 26 of their last 38 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Rockets are also an explosive offensive team that ranks 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 16th in the nation with a 3-point field goal percentage of 39.8%. Toledo stays at home where they are 7-0 this season while scoring 86.7 PPG and making 47.3% of their shots. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 35 of their last 54 home games Over the Total as the favorite laying no more than 6 points. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Coincidentally, both these teams are coming off their best defensive performances of the season with Ball State and Toledo holding their last opponent to just 30.1% and 30.5% field goal percentages. These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Over the Total. Expect a higher-scoring game between these teams that will be competing to with the Mid-American Conference championship. 25* CBB Friday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (805) and the Toledo Rockets (806). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (763) and the Portland State Vikings (764). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (7-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 70-65 victory at Sacramento State as a 2-point favorite. Portland State (5-6) has lost three straight games with their 76-71 loss to Cal-State Bakersfield as a 1-point favorite back on December 20th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Northern Colorado has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Over their last five games, the Bears are scoring a robust 88.6 PPG while making 51% of their shots from the field. But now this team stays on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots this season. Northern Colorado has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing on the road. Portland State has played 9 straight games Over the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after an upset loss at home. They stay at home for this contest where they are scoring 89.2 PPG while making 46.9% of their shots which is well-above their 41.9% shooting clip overall (mental note: be on the lookout to fade this team in their conference road games). If and when the Vikings miss their shots, there is a very good chance they will get a second-chance scoring opportunity since they lead the nation by pulling down 44.2% of their missed shots. Offensive rebounds should be easy to come by facing this Bears team that allows their opponents to rebound 27.4% of their missed shots which ranks 122nd in the nation. Portland State has not covered the point spread in three straight games. The Vikings have played 24 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight contests. Additionally, while Portland State has allowed their last four opponents to make at least 47.3% of their shots (as they sacrifice transition defense for crashing the offensive glass), they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing their last four opponents to make at least 47% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: These are two defensively-challenged teams who rank 214th and 267 in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In the wild-wild-west of the Big Sky conference, expect this game to be another higher-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (763) and the Portland State Vikings (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (650) minus the points versus the St. John’s Red Storm (649). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (9-3) has five straight games after their 78-74 upset win at Maryland last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. St. John’s (12-0) remained undefeated this season last week with their 104-82 win over Sacred Heart as a 20-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES MINUS THE POINTS: The Red Storm completed the fall non-conference schedule last year with a 10-2 mark before promptly losing their first eleven games in Big East play — so let’s slow our roll with getting overly excited about the return of this program. Head coach Chris Mullin has embraced a soft non-conference schedule as their most challenging games were either against VCU or Georgia Tech who both are outside Ken Pomeroy’s top 72 teams in the nation as of this writing. There is optimism in this basketball program with a potential first-round NBA draftee in Shamorie Ponds being joined by Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron who was granted immediate eligibility to play with this team this fall. But the team is missing some beef in the middle with 6’9 Sedee Keita out another couple weeks with his knee injury. The Red Storm may be rusty in this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with five or six days of rest. St. John’s has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after playing three straight games against non-conference opponents. The Red Storm have scored at least 86 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning at least three in a row. Now this team goes on the road for just the fourth time this season to play in just their second true road game. St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 trips to Seton Hall. The Red Storm like to create pressure on the basketball as they are 32nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.8% of their opponent’s possessions — but they are facing a Pirates team that is 10th in the nation by only turning the ball over in 15.1% of their possessions. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. And while the Pirates have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Seton Hall has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with five or six of their last seven days of rest. The Pirates have made the NCAA Tournament in three straight seasons and have added an influx of transfers to keep them in the mix to go to the Big Dance again this season. They have played a tough non-conference schedule that included nice wins over the Terrapins and Kentucky who rank in Pomeroy’s Top-50 while losing to top-100 Pomeroy teams in Nebraska, St. Louis and Louisville. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They return home where they are holding their opponents to just a 38.9% field goal percentage — and this stout defensive play has helped them go 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. This team likes to get to the free throw line as they have a 39.4% Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio which is 59th in the nation — and the Red Storm are vulnerable here as they rank 278th in the nation with an opponent’s FTA/FGA ratio of 36.6%. Lastly, the Pirates have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against Big East foes.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Seton Hall’s home court advantage to expose and overwhelm this St. John’s team. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Month with the Seton Hall Pirates (650) minus the points versus the St. John’s Red Storm (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UT-Arlington Mavericks (817) and the Texas Longhorns (818). THE SITUATION: UT-Arlington (4-8) snapped their seven-game losing streak last Friday with their 75-70 win at Cal-Poly SLO in a pick ‘em contest. Texas (7-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Friday in a 71-65 upset loss to Providence as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns allowed the Friars to make 45.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last five games. This Texas team is playing outstanding defense for head coach Shaka Smart as they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Longhorns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. This team stays at home where they are holding their opponents to just 62.2 PPG while limiting these visitors to only a 38.1% field goal percentage. Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 44 of their last 60 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Longhorns are heavy favorites in this game which is a good sign for the Under. Texas has played 7 straight games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite — and they have also played 18 of their last 24 home games Under the Total when laying 18.5 to 24 points. The Longhorns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. UT-Arlington has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Mavericks made only 39.7% of their shots in their victory last week which is concerning since they made only 26.8% of their shots in their previous game against Gonzaga. UT-Arlington ranks 303rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Mavericks do play solid defense as they rank 156th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is above average — and they will be playing a Longhorns team that ranks just 100th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. UT-Arlington stays on the road where they are scoring just 59.7 PPG with a low 37.1% field goal percentage. The Mavericks have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home field. Additionally, UT-Arlington has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: UT-Arlington is going to struggle to score points in this game — but this Longhorns team is not equipped to put up a bunch of points. Texas has scored more than 78 points three times this season. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UT-Arlington Mavericks (817) and the Texas Longhorns (818). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (603) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (604). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (10-0) remained one of the nine undefeated teams in College Basketball with their 82-48 win over Abilene Christian on December 15th. Duke (10-1) has won five straight games with their 101-50 victory over Princeton on Tuesday as a 28.5-point favorite. These two teams play on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Duke appears to have uber-talent but they are also way overrated right now. The KenPom projections for this result have the Blue Devils winning by 6 points. Ken Pomeroy’s quantitative analysis for College Basketball is great — but I take all quantitative methodology with a grain or two of salt. Yet when the point spread (based largely on similar quantitative analysis) has Duke laying around 10 points, these numbers demonstrate the inherent value we are getting with the underdog — especially when this game is being played on a neutral court. The Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when favored on a neutral court laying 9.5 to 12 points. This is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 100 points in their last contest. And while they have covered their last two games as favorites laying at least 24.5 points (as they were in their previous game against another Ivy League team in Yale), they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the points spread in two straight games as a double-digit favorite. This year’s Duke team is much better on the defensive end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to just a 35.4% of lower field goal percentage — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing their last five opponents to make more than 40% of their shots. I see two weaknesses with this team right now. First, while the collection of freshman talent is impressive, the Blue Devils could use one (or two) reliable outside shooters to complement their playmakers to better model the Golden State Warriors style of play that Mike Krzyzewski is deploying with an up-tempo style of play. Second, this team has yet to figure out how to run their offense if and when they find themselves in a close game. Admittedly, this does not happen often — but it did in their loss to Gonzaga where the offense seemed too committed to R.J. Barrett finding a shot in isolation. Barrett may not be that level of player just yet in his young career — he did not get off good shots in multiple opportunities late against the Bulldogs. Now the Blue Devils face an opponent that will be very difficult for them because they will try to impose a slower tempo while playing ferocious defense. Texas Tech leads the nation by allowing only 51.2 PPG — and they also own the top opponent’s field goal percentage of just 32.2%. The Pomeroy advanced metrics also look good as they lead the nation in his Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have not allowed an opponent to score at even a 0.90 Points-Per-Possession rate. Head coach Chris Beard did a masterful job with this team last year as he took a group expected to be in the bottom half of the Big 12 and led them to the Elite Eight. A good freshman class with three nice transfers and the continued development of the players that returned this season have quickly made this a dangerous group that has good chemistry while playing elite fundamental defense. Graduate transfer Tariq Owens from St. John’s gives this team a shot blocker to patrol the middle which allows Beard’s system of aggressive switching to work effectively to limit good shot opportunities. This sophistication will be a challenge for the Duke freshman. Texas Tech has not allowed more than 48 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 55 points in two straight games. All of the Red Raiders win have been by double-digits with nice resume builders with victories against Nebraska and USC. Texas Tech has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Good coaching tends to be the great equalizer in College Basketball. Expect the Red Raiders to slow the pace of this game down — they are averaging 68 possessions per game. In Duke’s loss to Gonzaga, there were only 72 possessions in that game which was the second fewest they have had in a game this season. Grab the points in what should be a close contest. 20* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (603) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (604). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (778) minus the points versus the Rider Broncs (777). THE SITUATION: Washington State (5-3) looks to bounce-back from a 95-90 loss at home to Montana State back on December 9th as an 11.5-point favorite. Rider (4-3) looks to build off their 69-50 win over Robert Morris back on December 5th where they were 12.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington State is picked by many to finish last in the Pac-12 this season but insiders of the program are quietly confident that this team can exceed those low expectations. They have a potential NBA player in senior in Robert Franks and will be taught to beat if they are making their 3-point shots. The Cougars attempt 45.9% of their shots from behind the arc which is the 34th highest mark in the nation. Washington State should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They stay at home for this game where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +13.8 PPG. The Cougars are making 49% of their shots on their home court while also converting on 37.6% of their 3-pointers. They also hold their visitors to just a 42.1% field goal percentage. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, Washington State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Rider returns their top-six scorers from last year’s group that surprised with a 15-3 record in Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference play. But the Broncs disappointed late in the year by losing in the first round of the MAAC Tournament to Saint Peter's and then lost in the first round of the NIT to Oregon. This remains a young team — and this inexperience has translated into them struggling on the road where they are just 1-3 this season. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. The Broncs thrive when pressuring their opponents as they rank 13th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.3% of their opponent’s possession. But they are not facing an accommodating opponent tonight as the Cougars rank 21st in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 8 games against non-conference opponents, the Broncs have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 53-14 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: Rider has lost to the three best opponents so far on their schedule this season against West Virginia, Central Florida, and Hofstra. While the Broncs are an intriguing mid-major, this major conference opponent with potential NBA talent should pull away from them playing on their home court. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with the Washington State Cougars (778) minus the points versus the Rider Broncs (777). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Mexico Lobos (606) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (605). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (4-3) looks to bounce-back from an 85-60 loss on Friday to Saint Mary’s as an 8.5-point underdog in the Hall of Fame Classic that was played at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Colorado (7-1) has won five straight games with their 84-72 win over Illinois-Chicago last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LOBOS PLUS THE POINTS: New Mexico should bounce-back with a strong effort — they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Lobos played their worst game of the season on Friday. They allowed the Gaels to make 60% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. They also made only 34.8% of their shots which was the second-worst offensive performance to the 28.1% field goal percentage they endured in their previous game which was a 100-65 loss at New Mexico State last Tuesday. Not only was that a rematch from Lobos victory in Albuquerque from last month between these two in-state rivals but the Aggies became particularly fired up after the two teams got into some fisticuffs prior to the game. Those results were ugly and the actions of New Mexico’s third-leading scorer, Corey Manigault, compelled head coach Peter Weir to suspend the player indefinitely. I did not get the memo about that impending suspension last Friday — and Manigault’s status for tonight remains in doubt. We need to assume that Manigault does not play — yet I still expect the Lobos to play much better now back at home in the Pit for the first time since November 24th. New Mexico has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after suffering two straight losses by at least 10 points. And while the Lobos have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Weir did an outstanding job with the Lobos last year as he took over a program with low expectations and guided them to a 12-6 record in the Mountain West Conference. While four starters departed from that team, Weir role players from last year ready to take on bigger roles along with an influx of transfers including a former five-star recruit from UConn in Vance Jackson. Playing back at home should certainly help the offense as they are making 51.1% of their shots in their three previous home games this season. The Lobos are 40th in the nation by making 38.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are making 50% of their 3-pointers at home. New Mexico is also 10th in the nation with a Free-Throw-Attempt to Field-Goal-Attempt ratio of 48.9% — and they should get more whistles back in Albuquerque. Furthermore, the Lobos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when the Total is set at least at 160. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they are just 13-28-1 ATS in their last 42 games after a straight-up win. Their victory over the Ramblers came on the heels of an 82-58 win over South Dakota — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning their last two games by at least double-digits. Despite the nice start, this team seems to be moving in the wrong direction under head coach Tad Boyle. The team did not make a postseason tournament last season for the first time in the eight years he has been with the program. Boyle started three freshmen last year which raised hopes for this year’s team — but seven-footer Dallas Walton has suffered a season-ending ACL injury to dampen expectations. We want to identify teams with strong home court advantages who have padded their non-conference schedule with home games at this part of the season — and this is an apt description of this Colorado team that often catches teams unprepared to handle the high altitude in Boulder. But the Buffaloes are 19-41-1 ATS in their last 61 games on the road — and they are also 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado goes back on for just the third time this season and for the first time since November 24th after playing their last four games at home. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after playing at least three previous games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: Expect for Weir to have his team ready to play tonight back at home. While Colorado won’t mind the altitude in the ABQ, the Pit is a difficult place to play. Expect a close game. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the New Mexico Lobos (606) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (750) minus the point(s) versus the Toledo Rockets (749). THE SITUATION: Marshall (5-3) looks to bounce-back from a 93-82 loss at Duquesne as a 1-point favorite back on Wednesday. Toledo (8-1) has won six games in a row after their 101-57 blowout victory over Detroit as 15-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD MINUS THE POINT(S): Marshall played their worst defensive game of the season against the Dukes as they allowed them to shoot 57.9% from the field. That loss came after The Thundering Herd suffered a 101-84 upset loss at Ohio last Saturday where they were 1-point favorites. Marshall has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after suffering two straight losses. The Herd have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last contest. Returning home will help where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +17.7 PPG. The Thundering Herd play at a blistering pace — they average just 13.3 seconds per possession which is the third fastest pace in the nation. This up-tempo style helps them score 88.2 PPG at home while making 48.7% of their shots. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 90 points. That suggests that higher-scoring games may not be the Rockets’ sweet spot where they are most effective. While Toledo has scored at least 80 points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games. The Rockets are 12th in the nation by with a 41.5% field goal percentage with their 3-point shots — but they have a Marshall team that holds their visitors to just a 33.3% clip from behind the arc. Lastly, Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Marshall should be pretty ornery after suffering two straight upset losses. They are tough back on their home court where their fast pace tends to overwhelm their opponents. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Marshall Thundering Herd (750) minus the point(s) versus the Toledo Rockets (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (527) and the USC Trojans (528). THE SITUATION: TCU (6-1) has won three games in a row with their 67-59 win at SMU on Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite. USC (5-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 73-61 loss to Nevada as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Horned Frogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. TCU entered this season with head coach Jamie Dixon making improving their play on the defensive end of the court a high priority. Defending the perimeter was particularly important to Dixon after the Horned Frogs allowed Big 12 opponents to make a whopping 42% of their 3-pointers. So far, so good this season as their opponents are making just 25.9% of their shots from behind the arc which is 8th best in the nation. Overall, TCU ranks 13th in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of just 43.1%. The Horned Frogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. TCU has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed as the favorite. USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 11 of the last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while their last game with the Wolf Pack finished below the 161 point Total, the Trojans have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. USC is also playing strong defense as they rank 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.5%. The Trojans have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. USC has played their last three games at home — and they have then played 27 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing three straight games at home. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Trojans have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is the middle game of a three-game event at the Staples Center in Los Angeles for the Hall of Fame Classic. Expect a lower scoring game on this neutral court for both teams. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (527) and the USC Trojans (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Mexico Lobos (525) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (526). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 100-65 loss at in-state rival New Mexico State as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Saint Mary’s (5-4) has won two straight games with their 93-61 win over Bethune Cookman as a 19.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LOBOS PLUS THE POINTS: This was the worst game of the season for New Mexico which was a rematch of their 98-94 loss to the Aggies last month in Albuquerque. Perhaps that New Mexico State team was particularly motivated to make a statement against their former head coaches Paul Weir who left the program for New Mexico after the 2016-17 season. Weir did an outstanding job with the Lobos last year as he took over a program with low expectations and guided them to a 12-6 record in the Mountain West Conference. While four starters departed from that team, Weir role players from last year ready to take on bigger roles along with an influx of transfers including a former five-star recruit from UConn in Vance Jackson who is scoring 13.3 PPG and junior college transfer Corey Manigault who is adding 12.8 PPG. Anthony Mathis scored 12.7 PPG off the bench last year and now leads the team in scoring this season by averaging 15.7 PPG. That bad loss to New Mexico State presents Weir an ideal coaching opportunity for what will be a captive audience as the team heads to Los Angeles to play in this Hall of Fame Classic tournament. As it is, the Lobos have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. New Mexico endured their worst shooting performance of the season with a 28.1% field goal percentage against the Aggies on Tuesday — but the Lobos have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after failing to make more than 33% of their shots. New Mexico is 11th in the nation by making 42.7% of their 3-point shots. This team also gets to the free point line as they also rank 3rd in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 53.7%. The Lobos have also allowed at least 75 points in all six of their games this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 75 points in four straight games. And while New Mexico has only covered the point spread twice in their six games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Saint Mary’s may be due for a letdown after their easy win on Tuesday. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 30 points in their last game. This is this team’s third game since Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing their third game in a week. And while Saint Mary’s have shot at least 50% from the field in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. Now they travel away from home for just the fourth time this season — and they see their field goal percentage plummet to a 37.1% mark on the road which is miles away from their 48.1% overall mark for the season. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. Randy Bennett’s team is in rebuilding mode after losing five of their top seven starters from last year’s team that only lost four games all season. The biggest loss was All-American big man Jock Landale who starred for the team for the previous three seasons. Bennett has brought in a handful of new players but this appears to be a program in decline when considering they have already lost to Utah State, Mississippi State, Harvard, and UC-Irvine. Saint Mary’s have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the Mountain West Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s also played New Mexico State earlier this season who they handed a 73-58 loss to in their gym three weeks ago. That should only add more bulletin board material for Weir to get his team ready to play after being humiliated by the Aggies earlier this week. Expect a close game with this being played on a neutral court at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. 25* CBB Hall of Fame Classic Game of the Year with the New Mexico Lobos (525) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (714) plus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (713). THE SITUATION: Iowa (6-2) looks to bounce-back from an ugly 90-68 loss at Michigan State as an 11-point underdog on Monday. Iowa State (7-1) has won four straight games after they defeated North Dakota State on Monday with their 81-59 victory as a 21.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa should bounce-back with a strong effort against their in-state rival. The Hawkeyes have rebounded to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after a loss by 20 or more points against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road by at least 20 points. Returning home should also help as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after a loss by at least 20 points. And while Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Hawkeyes made only 32.8% of their shots against the Spartans which was the worst offensive effort of their season. Iowa has not shot better than 39.0% over their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after failing to have better than a 40% field goal percentage in their last three games. Iowa is still shooting 47.3% from the field over their last five games — and they are scoring 82.0 PPG with a 46.3% field goal percentage at home this season to complement their 4-1 record. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the month of December. Iowa State enjoyed their best offensive effort of the season by making 50% of their shots in their win over the Bison. The Cyclones have covered four straight games with them laying the points in those last three contests. But Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in three straight games. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games after covering the point spread in their last four games. And while Iowa State has scored at least 81 points in each of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Cyclones have not allowed their last three opponents to score more than 59 points with their last two opponents to not shoot better than 36.5% from the field. But Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to allow more than 65 points in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after not letting their last two opponents shoot better than 37% from the field. Lastly, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games when favored by no more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa is looking to avenge an 84-78 loss to Iowa State back on December 7th last season where they were 6-point underdogs. That game was played in Ames — so look for their home court advantage back in Iowa City help them earn revenge. 20* CBB Iowa State-Iowa FS1 Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (714) plus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (713). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (708) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (707). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) has lost two straight as well as three of their last four games after their 76-57 loss at Michigan last Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. Maryland (7-1) enters this game coming off a 66-59 win over Penn State last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue has been the underdog in their last two games — so those were not bad losses. In fact, their three losses to Florida State, Virginia Tech and the Wolverines were all to teams that currently rank in Ken Pomeroy’s top sixteen teams in his advanced metrics rankings system. Led by a returning All-American in Carsen Edwards, this Boilermakers’ team remains a talented group of players that remain capable although not quite as good as the one that lost to Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 last season (after losing their star seven-footer Isaac Haas to injury in the NCAA Tournament). This year’s team remains an elite offensive team under head coach Matt Painter as they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They gave covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Boilermakers have allowed 44 points in the first half in each of their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 first-half points in two straight games. Purdue’s last three games have all finished below the number — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing three straight Unders. The Boilermakers return home where they are a perfect 3-0 this season with an average winning margin of +26.7 PPG due to them scoring 86.0 PPG on 47.3% shooting from the field. Purdue has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in the month of December. Maryland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win under head coach Mark Turgeon — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss. The Terrapins missed the Big Dance last season with a disappointing 19-13 record — and they declined to play in a second-tier postseason tournament. Turgeon returned three starters from that team with the hopes being that a big freshman class of six players would jumpstart the program back into the NCAA Tournament. Maryland breezed through their first six games with Marshall being the biggest challenge before losing to Virginia in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge by 5 points at home before rebounding with that win over the Nittany Lions. Perhaps the biggest challenge for this team is to go on the road away from College Park for just the second time this season. After playing at Navy, this will be just the second collegiate game in a hostile environment for freshman Eric Ayala, Jalen Smith, Serrel Smith and Aaron Wiggins who all play critical roles with this team. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 140-149.5 point range. A vulnerability for this team is that they are turning the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions that have mostly been on their home court — that is the 229th worst mark in the nation. This proclivity to turn the ball over will likely worsen on the road — and the Boilermakers are forcing turnovers in 20.6% of their opponent’s possessions. And while the Terrapins have made at least 48.9% of their shots in each of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue returns home where they need to pick up a win after a challenging schedule to start the season. Look for them to expose this Terrapins team whose record hides a sweetheart early schedule. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Purdue Boilermakers (708) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-1) enters this game coming off their 79-59 win over Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Illinois (2-6) has lost their last two games with their 75-60 loss at Nebraska as a 13-point underdog at Nebraska.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Ohio State has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team plays excellent defense for head coach Chris Holtmann as they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 10th in the country by holding their opponents to just a 42.2% effective field goal percentage — and opponents are shooting only 37.2% from the field against them overall. This game is being played on a neutral court in the Chicago Bulls’ United Center. The Buckeyes are scoring only 66.5 PPG with a 45.1% field goal percentage in their two games away from Columbus so far this season. Those numbers are far below their 78.4 PPG and 48.3 % shooting marks for the season. Ohio State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Illinois has seen the Under go 20-8-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. Brad Underwood’s team is launching plenty of shots — they have attempted 11 and 14 more shots than their opponents over their last two games. The Illini have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after shooting at least 10 more times than their opponent in two straight games. Illinois has played five of their games away from Champagne this season — and they are averaging only 70.8 PPG while making only 40.6% of their shots which is far below their 77.4 PPG scoring average for the season along with their 44.9% field goal percentage for the year. The Illini have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em on a neutral court. Illinois has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 encounters Under the Total. With this game being played in an unfamiliar environment for both teams, expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (762) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (761). THE SITUATION: Michigan (6-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-55 win over UT-Chattanooga last Friday as a 32.5-point favorite. North Carolina (6-1) comes off a 94-78 win over UCLA last Friday in the consolation match of the Las Vegas Invitational.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they will be hard-pressed to approach that number tonight. Michigan is the top-rated defensive basketball team in the nation in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They limited the defending national champions, Villanova, to just 46 points despite that game being played on the Wildcats’ home court. This is a talented Tar Heels team that returns three starters from last year’s team that lost in the Round of 32 in last year’s NCAA Tournament to Texas A&M. Head coach Roy Williams has plenty of talent — including his best-recruiting class in years — but he is still working out just how deep he wants his bench to go when facing elite competition. The Tar Heels lost by a 92-89 score to Texas in Las Vegas in a game where they turned the ball over 17 times which accounted for 21.2% of their possessions. Now they face Wolverines team that forces turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions (63rd in the nation) despite rarely deploying full-court pressure. Michigan’s Xavier Simpson is a nightmare to play against as he played a critical role in their run to the NCAA Championship Game last season. North Carolina has a five-star blue-chipper at point guard in Coby White — but the freshman has yet to face a defender as fierce as Simpson. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 7 games as an underdog, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. Michigan also leads the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of just 36.9%. Coincidentally, it was the Wolverines’ 86-71 loss to the Tar Heels last year that formed the basis of their dramatic improvement on defense. Assistant coach Luke Yaklich is credited as the architect for the defensive adjustments that really began to take shape after that embarrassing loss to North Carolina in last year’s ACC-Big Ten Challenge contest for both these teams. There are a number of subtle changes that occurred after that contest — but perhaps the most important became the eventual decision by head coach John Beilein to commit to Simpson as his starting point guard given how disruptive he was on the defensive end of the court. Michigan is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Wolverines have held their last two opponents to just 28.1% and 36.1% shooting from the field — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make at least 37% of their shots. Michigan is 3-0 at home this year with an average winning margin of +22.0 PPG as they hold their visitors to just 45.3 PPG on low 32.6% shooting. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Michigan is also an impressive 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games gains teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Beilein’s acumen as an offensive coach has been forgotten a bit given the startling improvement on defense to the elite teams in college basketball. If the Wolverines are hitting their shots as they did against Villanova (or Texas A&M in the Sweet 16 last year), they will blow out their opponents. But now their defense will keep them competitive in all their games. They will be very motivated to avenge their loss to the Tar Heels last year who no longer have their All-American point guard in Joel Barry from last year’s team that stalled in March. 25* CBB ACC-Big Ten Challenge Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (762) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (761). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (732) minus the points versus the William & Mary Pride (731). Marshall (4-1) looks to rebound from a 104-67 loss at Maryland last Friday as a 9-point underdog. William & Mary (2-4) snapped their four-game losing streak last Saturday with their 87-85 upset win over Saint Joseph’s as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD MINUS THE POINTS: Marshall suffered their first loss of the season to the Terrapins but they should bounce-back with a strong effort. The Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, this team has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Marshall has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Head coach Dan D’Antoni’s team plays at a blistering pace — they are third in the nation with an average possession length of just 13.1 seconds per possession. D’Antoni has his team apply full-court pressure — and they are 11th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 25.1% of their opponent’s possessions. They are hosting a Pride team that is very vulnerable to this style of play as they are turning the ball over in 21.4% of their possessions which is 273rd in the nation. The Thundering Herd returns home where they are 3-0 while outscoring their opponents by +17.0 PPG. Marshall scores 89.7 PPG at home while making 48.% of their shots. The Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and this includes them covering the point spread in five straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. William & Mary made 57.1% of their shots against the Hawks which was their best offensive effort of the season. But the Pride have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. William & Mary rallied from a 49-35 halftime deficit to Saint Joseph’s — and that came after they trailed Radford by a 46-35 score in their previous game. The Pride will be run out of the gym if they fall behind by double-digits against this Marshall team. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after trailing by at least 10 points at halftime of their last two games. William & Mary goes back on the road where they are 0-3 this season while being outscored by -9.5 PPG. The Pride allows their home hosts to scorer 85.7 PPG on 50% shooting. William & Mary have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set at 160 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Marshall will get motivated to bounce-back from their embarrassing 37-point loss to Maryland. Their pressure defense should create plenty of additional scoring opportunities back at home against this William & Mary team. 20* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Marshall Thundering Herd (732) minus the points versus the William & Mary Pride (731). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). THE SITUATION: Auburn (4-1) lost in the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational last night by a 78-72 score to Duke as 11-point underdogs. Arizona (4-1) then lost in the Semifinals of this tournament to Gonzaga by a 91-74 score as an 11-point underdog as well.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 41.2% of their shots against the Bulldogs. 3-point shooting is an issue for this team as I flagged yesterday in the Report taking Gonzaga. Arizona makes only 30.4% of their 3-point shots which ranks 266th in the nation — and that is exactly what they shot last night by making only 7 of their 23 shots (30.4%) from behind the arc. While this subpar 3-point shooting has been consistent, expect the Wildcats to play better on the defensive end of the court after Gonzaga made 53.1% of their shots. That was Arizona’s worst defensive effort of this young season — but they are still holding their opponents to just a 39.9% field goal percentage for the season. The Wildcats have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing no more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Wildcats’ last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Under is 3-1-1. Auburn held Duke to a 44.4% field goal percentage which was the worst defensive performance in their last three games. The Tigers rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Bruce Pearl will want his team to commit fewer personal fouls after being whistled for 24 fouls against the Blue Devils. Auburn was called for 23 personal fouls the previous day in their opening round game against Xavier — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after being whistled for at least 22 fouls in two straight games. The Tigers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court, the game finished Under the Total 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are playing their third game in three days — so fatigue might be a factor. Both Pearl and Sean Miller want their teams to have their defense serve as the foundation of their team play — so expect intensity on that end of the court to be a priority for both teams in this consolation game. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (748) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (747). THE SITUATION: Arizona (4-0) reached the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational with their 71-66 win over Iowa State last night as a 1.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (4-0) matched that achievement by defeating Illinois by an 84-78 score last night as a 15.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are a college basketball team in transition. For starters, they lost all five starters from last year’s team — and that includes two NBA players in DeAndre Ayton and Allonzo Trier. The team is also under intense scrutiny from the NCAA regarding alleged recruiting violations by head coach Sean Miller. Arizona defeated a depleted Cyclones team last night who were missing four players including two starters. They are only making 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc which ranks 259th in the nation — and not being able to make 3s against this powerhouse Gonzaga scoring machine will spell trouble for them. As it is, the Wildcats are just 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games when playing their second game in three days. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the West Coast Conference. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in three days. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against Pac-12 opponents. This team is playing at a fast pace — they are averaging only 13.5 seconds per possession which is the 5th fastest rate in the nation and almost three seconds faster than their 16.2 seconds per possession rate last year. Gonzaga is also ranked 5th in the nation with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 116.2. The Bulldogs had scored at least 93 points in three straight games before last night — and all three of those wins were by at least 23 points. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. This team is without forward Killian Tillie who is out until January with an ankle injury but they have an emerging star at that position in Rui Hamchimura.

FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga is a legitimate contender to win the national championship this year — and games like this are important in building their resume for seeding in that tournament since they play in a middling mid-major conference. Expect a strong effort from the Bulldogs tonight which will likely set up a finals showdown with Duke. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Game of the Year is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs (748) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (747). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (601) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (602). I have joked that they may cancel the game on Monday since it seems as if Villanova has already been coronated as National Champion after easily winning what many dubbed the de-facto championship game against Kansas. If the Wildcats come close to going 13 of 26 from behind the arc against the Wolverines in the first-half like they did against the Jayhawks, then they will be crowned champion. Then again, if Maryland-Baltimore County goes 13 of 26 from downtown, they would likely defeat even this Villanova team. Successful handicapping over the long-term is about maintaining perspective — so here are some things to keep in mind. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan (33-7) ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. Remember, while the Wildcats scored at a 1.34 Points-Per-Possession rate on Saturday, it remains Michigan who had the most explosive offensive effort in this tournament when they scored at a 1.38 PPP rate against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16. And if the Wolverines approach making 50% of their 3-point shots, they will most likely be cutting down the nets. The potential Villanova emotional letdown is compounded by playing an outstanding defensive team with the Wolverines now ranking 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency — and defense is more consistent than 3-point shooting from game-to-game. Michigan is an eye-popping 14-3-3 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They swept a Michigan State team that many had also coronated as the inevitable National Champion — and that Purdue team they played three times with a healthy Isaac Haas that I thought might have been the best team in the country. John Beilein’s complicated offense is very difficult to prepare for with a short turnaround in tournament action. And while the Wolverines have not been an underdog since the Big Ten Tournament when the oddsmakers expected the Spartans and Boilermakers to defeat them, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Furthermore, I have seen at least one advanced analytics projection site that project this to be a 2-point game based off the metrics since January between these two teams based on their numbers against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents. We are certainly getting the value with the underdog tonight.

Villanova (35-4) is an outstanding shooting basketball team — but they certainly have their share of flaws. Lost in their offensive display on Saturday was that they allowed Kansas to score at a 1.11 Points-Per-Possession rate. Defense is a concern for this team. They rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they do not play elite defense. That efficiency mark of 94.4 jumped to a solid but spectacular 105.7 mark against Big East opponents. This lack of a lockdown defense combines with a style of play on offense that can tend to be too dependent on making 3s. Villanova is just average at offensive rebounding (149th in the nation) while ranking 289th in the nation in free throw rate. The Wildcats are outstanding in protecting the basketball so they take almost full advantage of each possession but they do not have a reliable backup plan if there shots are not falling outside of the fact that 47.5% of their shots are from behind the arc. Furthermore, Villanova is not deep as they only go seven deep in their rotation. And the Wildcats are not tall with their biggest player being the 6’8 Omari Spellman. Villanova has coved the point spread in all 5 games in the NCAA Tournament as the favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to just 62.9 PPG, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG. Expect a close game where having the points will be valuable. 25* CBB National Championship Game A-List Special with the Michigan Wolverines (601) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (602). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Villanova (35-4) made 13 of their 26 shots from behind the arc in the first-half on Saturday en route to their 95-79 win over Kansas. The memories of the Wildcats’ explosive first-half while making 55.4% of their shots and scoring 95 points against the Jayhawks will compel many bettors take expect another high scoring game and take the Over. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. I expect both teams to be nervy in this game given the pressure of the moment. Both of these teams also sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense — so the tempo of this game can quickly become a slower, half-court affair. The Wolverines only rebound 25.6% of their missed shots which is 270th in the nation. And while Villanova ranks 149th in the nation with a healthier 29.4% offensive rebound rate, that number dropped significantly to a 25.2% mark in Big East play. The Wildcats have covered all five of their games in the NCAA Tournament as the favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova has also played 7 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less between games. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to just 62.9 PPG, Villanova has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG.

Michigan (33-7) is now ranked 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after their 69-57 win over Loyola-Chicago on Saturday. They held the Ramblers to just a 43.1% shooting mark while limiting them to making only 1 of their 10 shots from behind the arc. The Wolverines raised their level of play in January when Xavier Simpson finally earned the starting point guard job. Simpson is an outstanding defender who has stymied some of the best offensive guards in the nation — he will make things difficult for the Wildcats’ Jalen Brunson. It is defense that has gotten this Michigan team to the National Championship Game. They made only 42.4% of their shots against the Ramblers — and that was the fourth time in this NCAA Tourney in their five games where they did not shoot better than 44.7% from the field. Head coach John Beilein will try to slow the pace of this game. The Wolverines rank 324th in the nation by averaging only 64.8 possessions per game as compared to the 68.3 national average for possessions. Michigan also ranks 309th in the nation with a patient offense that averages 18.7 seconds per possession which is 1.5 seconds slower than the national average. This slower pace translates into the NCAA Tournament where the Wolverines have now played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Michigan has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, the Wolverines have played 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral court Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 11 games when playing their second game in three days, Michigan has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* College Basketball Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (813) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (814). Villanova (34-4) has covered the point spread in all four games as the favorite so far in the NCAA Tournament after their 71-59 win over Texas Tech on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. But Red Raiders’ head coach Chris Beard may have discovered a flaw in the Wildcats’ offense as they host just 33.3% from the field while making only 4 of their 24 (16.7%) of their shots from behind the arc. Villanova head coach Jay Wright admitted as much this week — and Kansas’ Bill Self will certainly steal elements from that Texas Tech defensive plan. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova may very well win this game but I am expecting a very close game between these two heavyweights. The Wildcats have some weaknesses which will make it difficult for them to cover a 5-point or so point spread against elite competition. They are too dependent on shooting 3s which account for 47.1% of their field goal attempts — and they will be facing a Jayhawks’ team that holds their opponents to making just 32.7% of their 3-point attempts. Villanova does not do much in generating possessions if their 3s are not falling. They only pulled down 25.2% of their missed shots in Big East play while only forcing turnovers in 17.5% of their Big East opponent’s possessions. The Wildcats do not get to the free throw line either as they own an anemic 29.8% free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio with that ranking 281st in the nation. On defense, this Villanova team ranks 14th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency at 94.6 — but that number was a much higher 105.7 in conference action. The Wildcats defense has struggled against playmaking guards — and Kansas has two of those. With their tallest rotational player being the 6’8 Omari Spellman and only going 6 or 7 deep in their rotation, this team has vulnerabilities. Furthermore, this basketball program has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the Semifinals in tournament action.

Kansas (31-7) proved their toughness last Sunday by defeating a bigger Duke team by an 85-81 score in overtime as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jayhawks won that game despite making only 43.5% of their shots which was their worst offensive performance in their last seven games. Kansas played very good on defense by holding the Blue Devils to just a 42.9% field goal percentage. But the Jayhawks were most impressive by their effort on the boards as they actually ourebounded that bigger Duke team by a 47-32 margin — including holding them to only 10 offensive rebounds at just a 25% offensive rebounding rate despite them being the top offensive rebounding team in the nation. Malik Newman has taken his game to another level in this tournament — he scored 32 points against Duke including all 13 points in overtime as he put his team on his back. What is impressive about this Kansas team is that they are in Final Four despite their season-long best player not yet excelling in this Big Dance. Devonte’ Graham is averaging just 16 PPG while making only 34% of his shots — but it would not be a surprise if he enjoyed a breakout game against the Wildcats. With Graham and Newman, the Jayhawks have two dynamic guards who can wreak havoc against the Villanova defense that has struggled against similar guards. Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while they have won their last three games by just 4 points, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after winning their last two games by no more than 6 points. Additionally, they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games under head coach Bill Self who remains a bit underrated. Self may be the best in the business when designing plays of offense after a timeout. Furthermore, he is a master tactician when afforded ample time to prepare. It is telling that his teams are 30-5 straight-up in the first game of a new week in the NCAA Tournament but then just 17-13 in the second game of the week with just one day to prepare. With his move to a four-guard lineup this year (in part out of necessity when big man Billy Preston was denied eligibility by the NCAA), these Jayhawks happen to be in a better position to defend the small ball approach championed by Jay Wright. Expect a very close game that Kansas has a good chance to win outright. 25* College Basketball Underdog of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (813) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). This is an interesting clash between two teams that love to attempt 3-point shots. Kansas (31-7) is attempting more 3-pointers than ever under Bill Self with 41.4% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc which is 80th in the nation. Jay Wright has been having his team take advantage of the 3-point shot for years now — this year’s Wildcats are attempting 47.1% of their shots from 3-point land which is 14th most in the nation. This importance on the 3-point shot extends to the defensive end of the court where both teams emphasize defending against these shots. The Jayhawks hold their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from inside the arc while Villanova limits their opponents to just a 32.2% field goal percentage from 3-point land. I see these similar styles clashing to produce a lower scoring game between these two heavyweights that will be feeling the pressure of the Final Four. Kansas made only 43.5% of their shots on Sunday in their 85-81 win in overtime over Duke as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jayhawks have then played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 85 points. Kansas made 13 shots from 3-point land against the Blue Devils after making 10 shots from behind the arc in their previous game against Clemson — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in each of their last two games. Additionally, while the Wildcats outscore their opponents by +16.4 PPG, the Jayhawks have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.

Villanova (34-4) reached the Final Four with their 71-59 win over Texas Tech as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. The Wildcats held the Red Raiders to just a 33.3% shooting percentage in that victory. Villanova has raised their level of play on the defensive end of the court in this Big Dance as they have held their four opponents to scoring at just a 0.99 Points-Per-Possession rate. But concerns exist for the Wildcats on the offensive end of the court after they also made only 33.3% of their shots. Jay Wright credited the Red Raiders’ scouting and schemes to stymie their 3-point offensive attack. They made only 4 of their 24 (16.7%) shots from the 3-point line — and Kansas should be replicating those schemes with a week to prepare for this contest. Villanova has covered the point spread in all four of their NCAA Tournament games as the favorite — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point as the favorite in three straight games. 25* CBB Final Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (811) and the Michigan Wolverines (812). This is a matchup between two teams that are in many ways mirror images of each other — and this clash of similar styles will likely result in a lower scoring game. The Ramblers and Wolverines play at a slower and methodical pace when on offense which is why the Total opened in the 128 range (having gone a bit then this week). Loyola-Chicago averages 65.2 possessions per game while Michigan averages 64.5 possessions per game with both marks being far below the 68.2 possessions per game national average. Both these teams have very good defenses — the Ramblers rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive while the Wolverines rank 4th in the nation in that metic. Both of these teams are also aggressive in finding scoring opportunities in transition from their opponent’s missed shots. However, both of these teams also sacrifice offensive rebounding so they can get back on defense — Loyola-Chicago is 332nd in the nation in offensive rebounding while Michigan is not much better at 274th in the nation. But with both teams racing back on defense to thwart the other team’s fast break opportunities, this shapes up to become a half court affair where both teams get only one shot per possession. Michigan (32-7) has scored over a 1.00 Points-Per-Possession rate only once in this tournament — and that was against a Texas A&M team that did not match up well given their two big men on the court. The Wolverines’ offense has struggled against more versatile defense that are comfortable switching off their multiple pick-and-rolls. The Ramblers’ are happy to quickly switch on defense with their smaller lineup of interchangeable parts. In their 58-54 win over Florida State in the Elite Eight, Michigan shot just 38.8% from the field while making only 4 of their 22 (18.2%) of their 3-point shots. But because they held the Seminoles to just 31.4% shooting, they were able to eke out that game. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Wolverines’ last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament.

Loyola-Chicago (32-5) held Kansas State to just a 34.8% shooting percentage in their 78-62 victory in the Elite Eight last Saturday as a 1-point underdog. The Ramblers have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Loyola has not allowed more than 68 points in this tournament with their three of their opponents scoring just 62 points . The Ramblers made 57.4% of their shots in that win which tied for their best offensive effort in their last nine contests so they are likely to see that figure drop in this contest. Loyola-Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (811) and the Michigan Wolverines (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (812) minus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (811). Loyola-Chicago (32-5) pulled off their fourth straight upset victory in the NCAA Tournament with their 78-62 win over Kansas State last Saturday. The Ramblers were lights out from the field by making 57.4% of their shots which was tied for their best shooting performance in their last nine games. They also held the Wildcats to just a 34.8% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort in their last four contests. While this Cinderella with Sister Jean has been a great story for the sports media, the bubble will likely burst in a big way for this team on Saturday under the pressure and focus all week of the Final Four. This is a team that is not used to this type of scrutiny and attention. They also have not played a team all season as skilled as these Wolverines. Even in getting to the Final Four, Loyola-Chicago has had a fortuitous draw. In their four wins over Miami (FL), Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State, the highest-ranked team according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics were the Volunteers at 13th in the nation. Their best non-conference opponent was Florida that currently ranks 20th in the nation by Pomeroy. For comparison’s sake, Michigan has played six games against teams that Pomeroy ranks in his Top-Nine: Michigan State (twice), Purdue (three times) and North Carolina. As it is, the Ramblers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after an upset win by double-digits. And while they made 55.8% of their shots in their previous game against Nevada, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 55% of their shots in two straight contests. Furthermore, Loyola-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with five or six days of rest.

Michigan (32-7) reached the Final Four with their 58-54 win over Florida State last Saturday. The Wolverines defense continued to flex their muscles in that game as they held the Seminoles to just a 31.4% field goal percentage. Michigan has held five of their last seven opponents to a field goal percentage of 38.1% or less. Moving forward, the X-Factor in this game may very well be Moritz Wagner who has not enjoyed a great NCAA Tournament so far in this event. The 6’11 stretch forward makes 39.6% of his 3-point shots presents a defensive nightmare for this Ramblers team. Loyola’s 6’9 Cameron Krutwig is probably not mobile enough to handle Wagner out on the perimeter. When the Ramblers’ switch on pick-and-rolls, Wagner should have significant matchup advantages. Even a big team like Tennessee did not run even one pick-and-roll against this team in this tournament — so Loyola-Chicago may be in for a rude awakening. Krutwig averages only 20 minutes per game — and his substitute is only 6’6 making their size issues even more of an issue. The Ramblers allow their opponents to shoot 61% at the rim with 1/3 of opponent’s points coming from this spot on the court. John Beilein will likely have his team prepared to either take 3s or drive it to the hole to take advantage of Loyola’s shaky defense inside. The Ramblers also turn the ball over in 18.9% of their possessions which is 215th in the nation — and the Wolverines force turnovers at a solid 19.4% rate. Lastly, Michigan’s improvement this season began when Xavier Simpson earned the starting point guard role because he is an elite defender. Simpson has given fits to elite scoring guards like Purdue’s Carson Edwards and Houston’s Rob Gray. Loyola’s offense centers around their point guard Clayton Custer — they lost three of their five games this season when he was injured. But if — and when — Simpson puts his clamps down on Custer, this Ramblers’ offense will likely sputter. In the end, the Wolverines simply have more playmakers on the court. Lastly, Beilein’s team is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Loyola-Chicago/Michigan Special Feature with the Michigan Wolverines (812) minus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (811). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Illinois-Chicago (20-15) reached the Championship of the College Insider Tournament with their 67-51 upset win at Liberty as a 4.5-point underdog. The Flames have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Illinois-Chicago has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. Additionally, the Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents.

Northern Colorado (25-12) gets to host this championship game with their 99-80 win over Sam Houston State on Wednesday as a 10.5-point favorite. The Bears made 59% of their shots in that contest which was their best offensive effort in their last ten contests. Northern Colorado have shot 47.2% from the field in each their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Lastly, while the Flames hold their opponents to just a 40.5% field goal percentage, Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of no better than 42%. 10* CBB Illinois-Chicago/Northern Colorado CBS Sports Network Special with the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Northern Colorado (25-12) reached the Championship Game of the College Insider Tournament on Wednesday with their 99-80 win over Sam Houston State as a 10.5-point favorite. The Bears made 59% of their shots in that game — they are torching the nets to close out the season by making 52.7% of their shots over their last five games. They are scoring 89.9 PPG on their home court this season while making 49.9% of their shots. Northern Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games on their home court Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, not only have the Bears played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 points in their last game but they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Northern Colorado made 17 of their 30 (56.7%) shots from behind the arc on Wednesday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last contest. Furthermore, the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big Sky Conference.

Illinois-Chicago (20-15) reached the Finals of the CIT with their 67-51 upset win at Liberty on Wednesday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Flames are finding their offense late in the season as the are shooting 46.6% from the field over their last five games which is a notch or so higher than their 45.2% season field goal percentage. Illinois-Chicago has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after an upset win. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Furthermore, this team has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Flames have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Illinois-Chicago has played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning three of their last four contests. Lastly, the Flames have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. 25* CBB CIT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (711) and the Utah Utes (712). Utah (23-11) held Western Kentucky to just a 34.8% shooting percentage on Tuesday en route to their 69-64 upset win over the Hilltoppers as a 2-point underdog. That was the Utes’ second straight upset victory after they pulled that deed in the Quarterfinals of the NIT at Saint Mary’s. Utah has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after two straight upset wins. Additionally, the Utes have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Utah has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Utes’ style of play is to sacrifice offensive rebounding to get back on defense. They have pulled down only 7 and 3 offensive rebounds in their last two games — and they have then played 18 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not pulling down more than 9 offensive rebounds in two straight games. And while the Nittany Lions make 45.9% of their shots, Utah has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 45% from the field. The Utes have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range.

Penn State (25-13) held the Bulldogs to just a 39.6% shooting percentage on Tuesday in their 75-60 win over Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite. The Nittany Lions nailed 11 of their 20 (55%) from behind the arc in that game — but they have then played 27 of their last 35 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last contest. Penn State finds themselves the favorite in this contest. They have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total as the favorite while also playing five of their last six games Under the Total when favored away from home by 3.5 to 6 points. Lastly, the Nittany Lions have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. 10* CBB Penn State-Utah ESPN2 O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (711) and the Utah Utes (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (712) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (711). Penn State (25-13) was on fire from behind the 3-point line on Tuesday as they nailed 11 of their 20 shots from downtown en route to their 75-60 blowout win over Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite. But such a strong effort might have set up the Nittany Lions for a letdown in this Championship Game — especially with them laying a handful of points. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a victory by at least 15 points. The Nittany Lions went into halftime with a 42-23 lead as those first 20 minutes of the game being the most important moments of that contest. However, Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. Additionally, the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 55 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game — and this includes five of these last eight situations. Furthermore, Penn State has covered the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests. But the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight contests. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games including five of these last six situations.

Utah (23-11) enters the NIT Championship Game playing their best basketball of the season after pulling off their second straight upset on Tuesday in their 69-64 upset win over Western Kentucky. The Utes have won four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. Utah has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory. Additionally, the Utes have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win which includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark in their last four contests. This team plays at a slow pace which should help this championship be a close contest. They had only 66 possessions on Tuesday which also helped keep their personal fouls down after seeing only 62 possessions in their Quarterfinals contest with Saint Mary’s (despite that game going to overtime). Fewer possessions has helped Utah keeps their personal fouls down — they were whistled for just 12 fouls against the Hilltoppers after committing 15 fouls against the Gaels. Utah has then covered the point spread in a decisive 48 of their last 70 games after not committing more than 15 personal fouls in their last two games which includes covering the point spread in fourteen of these last seventeen along with five of these last seven situations. Head coach Larry Krystkowiak’s team is also 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year on Utah Utes (712) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (518) minus the points versus the San Francisco Dons (517). North Texas (18-18) returns home for Game Two — and potentially Game Three — of the College Basketball Invitational Tournament after dropping Game One of this best-of-three event on Monday with their 72-62 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point favorite. The Mean Green made only 39.1% of their shots in that game which was their worst offensive effort in their last seven contests. They made only 4 of their 21 (19.1%) shots from behind the arc. North Texas has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 12-6 this season with an average winning margin of +9.9 PPG. They should shoot better tonight as they are making 48.2% of their shots on their home court while nailing 36.6% of their 3-pointers. The Mean Green did their job on the defensive end of the court as the Dons only made 38.2% of their shots. That was actually the highest field goal percentage for one of their opponents in their last four games. They have held their last five opponents to just a 38.4% shooting percentage. Moving forward, North Texas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams outside Conference USA.

San Francisco (22-15) has now won four straight games with their win on Monday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least three straight games. The Dons have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. Now this team foes on the road where they are just 6-9 this season with an average losing margin of -4.0 PPG. They made 14 of their 33 (42.4%) of their 3-pointers on Monday but that is not likely to continue tonight. The Dons are shooting just 41.1% from the field overall in their last five games and they only make 32.8% of their 3-point shots when on the road. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And in their last 11 games when they are in expected close games with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range, the Dons have failed to cover the point spread 9 times. 20* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the North Texas Mean Green (518) minus the points versus the San Francisco Dons (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (724) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (723). Illinois-Chicago (19-15) reached the Semifinals of the College Insider Tournament with their 83-81 upset win at Austin Peay last Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. The Flames nailed 10 of their 23 (43.5%) shots from 3-point land to help them pull the upset. That came on the heels of their 84-61 win over St. Francis-PA where they made 10 of 24 (41.7%) shots from 3-point land. Illinois-Chicago has then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games. They are only shooting 34.9% from 3-point land when on the road — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance for this team tonight. Furthering that thought, while the Flames have scored at least 83 points in their last games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last two contests. Additionally, while Illinois-Chicago has scored at least 75 points in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. Now this team stays on the road where they are being outscored by -3.8 PPG. They were fortunate to see Austin Peay miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc — but Liberty was 2nd in the Big South by making 38.8% of their 3-pointers this season. Illinois-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Another concern for this team — made more worrisome when they are playing in hostile environment — is their looseness with the basketball as they ranked 312th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.8% of their possessions. This is another area that Liberty can take advantage of as they forced turnovers in 19.1% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play. This also helps illuminate why Illinois-Chicago is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 

Liberty (22-14) reached the Semifinals with their 84-71 win over Central Michigan on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. These Flames shot a red hot 56.1% from the field including making 11 of their 25 (44%) shots from downtown — so they should offer more of a challenge to Illinois-Chicago that Austin Peay did on the offensive end of the court. Liberty has covered the point spread in 4 straight boarded games after a point spread win. Now these Flames stay at home for their third straight game. They are 12-6 on their home court with an average winning margin of +12.8 PPG. Liberty thrives on defense on their home court where they limit their visitors to scoring just 59.4 PPG on low 39.2% shooting. Over their last five games, these Flames have held their opponents to just 38.3% shooting while making a healthy 49.2% of their shots. Liberty’s defense is buoyed by outstanding defensive rebounding as they rank 2nd in the nation by limiting their opponents to pull down only 20.2% of their missed shots. Liberty has covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court. Additionally, this Flames team has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB CIT Semifinals Game of the Year with the Liberty Flames (724) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (723). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (780) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779). Mississippi State (25-11) enters this game flying high after they destroyed Louisville in their building last Tuesday by a 79-56 score despite being a 6-point underdog. The Bulldogs may be due for a letdown in this game — they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while the Bulldogs have scored 78 points in their previous game at Baylor in this tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 75 points in their last two games. Mississippi State is a big team but they are vulnerable on the defensive glass. The Bulldogs rank 266th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.7% of their missed shots. This is an area that the Nittany Lions will likely take advantage of as they rebound 31.4% of their missed shots which ranks 74th in the nation. Additionally, this is Mississippi State’s third straight game on the road where they are just 6-9 with a losing point differential. They make only 44.2% of their shots on the road. And while this Bulldogs team has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.

Penn State (24-13) reached the NIT Semifinals with their 85-80 upset win at Marquette as a  2.5-point underdog last Tuesday. The Nittany Lions have ten covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. Penn State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least two straight games in a row. Now this team travels to Madison Square Garden — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a neutral court. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Lastly, the Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Big Ten. Together, these team trends produce our specific 79-26-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. 20* CBB Mississippi State-Penn State ESPN Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (780) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Mississippi State (25-11) reached the Semifinals of the NIT with their 79-56 upset win at Louisville as a 6-point underdog last Tuesday. The Bulldogs held the Cardinals to just a 35% field goal percentage in that game. This Mississippi State plays very good defense — they rank 31st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their last five opponents are shooting just 40.1% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Mississippi State has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning three straight games — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 56 games on the road Under the Total after winning three straight games. Additionally, while the Bulldogs have played their last two games on the road as an underdog, they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing two straight games on the road as a dog. Furthermore, Mississippi State has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

Penn State (24-13) has also won three straight games with their 85-80 upset win at Marquette last Tuesday. The Nittany Lions made 53.4% of their shots in that game which was their best shooting effort in their last ten contests. They also allowed the Golden Eagles to make 45.9% of their shots which was actually the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last three games. Penn State has the 19th best defense in the nation when measured by Adjusted Efficiency. They will need to lean on their defense tonight considering that they are making only 40.1% of their shots over their last five games. Expect this game to be more of a defensive struggle as they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Nittany Lions have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. Additionally, Penn State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (777) and the Utah Utes (778). Utah (22-11) ha won three straight games after their 67-58 upset win at Saint Mary’s last Wednesday as a 6-point favorite. The Utes have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Utah attempted only 6 free throws in that contest with the Gaels — and they have then played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where they did not attempt more than 7 free throws. They also pulled down only 3 offensive rebounds in that game — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not rebounding more than 5 offensive boards. This Utah team shoots tons of 3s (46.2% of their field goal attempts — 21st in the nation) while playing at a snail’s pace. The Utes average 65.5 possessions per game which is 299th in the nation. Moving forward, Utah has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. They have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 6 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Under is 4-1-1.

Western Kentucky (27-10) has won five of their last six games after their 92-84 win at Oklahoma State last Wednesday as a 6-point underdog. The Hilltoppers have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset victory. That upset win over the Cowboys after they upset Baylor in Waco in their previous game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing their last two games as an underdog. This team is playing their best defense of the season as they have held their last five opponents to just a 39.4% shooting percentage. Moving forward, the Hilltoppers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a favorite of pick ‘em by 3 points or less. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (777) and the Utah Utes (778). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (778) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (777). Utah (22-11) reached the Semifinals of the NIT with their 67-58 upset win at Saint Mary’s despite being a  6-point underdog in that game. The Utes have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss on the road. Utah has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning at least two straight games. The Utes are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And in their last 9 games after seeing less than 125 combined points scored in their last game, Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 contests. Now the Total is set in the 140 point range for tonight’s contest — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, while the Utes committed on 8 turnovers in that game against the Gaels, they have then covered the point spread in a decisive 37 of their last 54 games after not committing more than 8 turnovers in their last contest. Furthermore, Utah is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

Western Kentucky (27-10) has won five of their last six games with their 92-84 win at Oklahoma State as a 6-point underdog last Wednesday. The Hilltoppers had previously come off an upset win at USC in their previous game in the NIT — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a victory as an underdog while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after pulling off two straight upset victories. Western Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after playing their last two games an underdog. The Hilltoppers forced only 6 turnovers against the Cowboys in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to force more than 8 turnovers in their last game. Moving forward, Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with five or six days of rest. And in their last 25 games when listed in the +/- 3-poing range, the Hilltoppers have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of these contests. Together, these team trends produce our specific 127-57-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CBB Western Kentucky-Utah ESPN Special with the Utah Utes (778) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (777). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (742) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (741). North Texas (18-17) reached the Finals of this Best-of-Three College Basketball Invitational tournament with their blowout 90-68 win over Jacksonville State. We had the Mean Green in that game — and it was very nice to see them make a season-high 61.5% of their shots in that contest. But this is a team that shoots only 42.6% of their shots away from home — and they will be playing a Dons’ team that place tough on the defensive end of the court by holding their visitors to just a 41.9% field goal percentage. As it is, North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 48 games after a game where they made at least 50% of their shots — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in six of their last seven games after nailing at least half their shots in their last contest. This is an improving young team under first-year head coach Grant McCasland. They had previously blown out Mercer on their home court by a 97-67 score in their previous game in this tournament. But the Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after registering two straight blowout wins by at least 20 points. The offense has exploded for them to score at least 90 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight contests. Quick first-half efforts have helped this team as they have raced out to score 57 and 47 points in the first 20 minutes of their last two contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 first-half points in two straight games. Playing in a hostile environments has been an issue for this team — and they turn the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions in Conference USA play which was 12th in that conference. Furthermore, the Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing their their last two games on their home court.

San Francisco (21-15) has won three straight games with their 65-62 win over Campbell on Thursday as a 9.5-point favorite. The Dons have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. All three of San Francisco’s most recent wins have been by 5 points or less — and they have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning three straight games by 6 points or less. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 3 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Dons entered the season with expectations that they would be in the top tier of the West Coast Conference but they started slow in conference play. They found themselves 4-7 in the conference after losing a pair of road games at Saint Mary’s and at Gonzaga. But this San Francisco team has since won nine of their last twelve games including a big win at home against the Gaels in a rematch in February. With the second and potentially third games of these finals scheduled to be played in Denton in North Texas’ gym, the Dons need to win this opening contest to have a reasonable chance of winning this championship. 25* CBB CBI Game of the Year with the San Francisco Dons (742) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (741). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Duke Blue Devils (721) and the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Duke (29-7) has won five of their last six games with their 69-65 win over Syracuse on Friday as an 11-point favorite. The Blue Devils have then played 9 of their 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Surprisingly, the Orange shot 49.1% from the field in that game which was the first time that any opponent made more than 46.2% of their shots against them in their last 21 games going all the way back to January 6th (when I don’t think they had moved to the 2-3 zone that dramatically improved their level of play on the defensive end of the court since it allowed Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter to stay in the point). Duke did hold the Orange to just 27 points in the first half on Friday after limiting Rhode Island to just 28 first-half points in the Round of 32 — and they have then played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in the first-half of their last two contests. They will be challenged by this Jayhawks team that makes 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc en route to their 81.4 PPG scoring average. But the Blue Devils have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who score at least 77 PPG — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that shoot at least 37% from behind the arc. Additionally, Duke has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 48 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range, the Blue Devils have played 32 of these games Under the Total.

Kansas (30-7) has won six straight games with their 80-76 win over Clemson on Friday as a 5-point favorite. The Jayhawks have then played 28 of their last 42 road games after winning at least two straight games. And while Kansas scored 83 points in their previous game against Seton Hall, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. They face this Blue Devils team that scores 84.4 PPG — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that score at least 84 PPG. Additionally, the Jayhawks have played 7 straight games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage over 80%. Kansas has played 11 of their last 14 games on a neutral court Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Lastly, in their last 65 games as an underdog, the Jayhawks have played a decisive 46 of these games Under the Total. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Duke Blue Devils (721) and the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (721) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Kansas (30-7) reached the Elite Eight with their 80-76 win over Clemson on Friday. But now this Jayhawks team gets exposed against a superior opponent with more talent and a more reliable system of play in the Blue Devils. These Jayhawks are not one of Bill Self’s better teams. They lost five games in Big 12 conference play but continued their regular season title streak in large part due to the injury of Texas Tech’s Keenan Evans which triggered the Red Raiders’ four-game losing streak. Kansas’ problems start on defense where they ranked just 46th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency which is the first time they were outside the Top-24 going back to at least 2002 (kenpom’s data does not go farther back). They were 6th in the Big 12 with Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 108.9 which projects that opponents would score at a 1.09 Points-Per-Possession rate. They only outscored conference opponents by +0.04 PPP. Even worse, because this team plays with four guards, they face a matchup nightmare when encountering a team with multiple big men. Hello, Duke with Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter. It is simply a matchup nightmare that 6’8 Svi Mykhailiuk and his 205-lb frame will be required to play defense against either the 6’11 Bagley at 234 lbs or Carter at 6’10 and 259 lbs. The Jayhawks were 7th in the Big 12 by allowing their opponents to make 51.2% of their shots inside the arc. Kansas is likely to get destroyed on the boards as well as they allow their opponents to make 31.5% of their missed shots which is 295th in the nation. The Blue Devils rebound 39.2% of their missed shots which is the top mark in the country. Furthermore, the Jayhawks do not specialize in getting more scoring opportunities in offensive rebounding nor forcing turnovers — and they are awful at getting to the free throw line with a free throw rate which is 329th in the nation. When they do get to the charity stripe, they made only 69% of these shots in Big 12 play (12th in the conference) — and they have a severe liability there with Udoku Azubuike who shoots a mere 41.1% from the line. The Blue Devils do a fine job of defending inside the arc — they hold opponents to just a 45.3% shooting mark with their 2-point shots (17th in the nation) and that mark lowered to a 44.1% mark against ACC foes. To win this game, the Jayhawks will have to make a bunch of 3s — and they do take 41.0% of the field goal attempts from behind the arc. But Duke defends the perimeter quite well using that 2-3 zone which pushes those 3-point attempts farther back — they ranked 20th in the nation with an opponent’s 3-point field goal percentage of 31.9%. I just don’t think the Jayhawks have enough diversity in their scoring options outside 3-point shooting. As it is, this team is due for a letdown. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by 6 points or less — and after their 4-point win over Seton Hall in the Round of 32, they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two straight by 6 points or less. Furthermore, Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games if they have won at least twelve of their previous fifteen games (12-3 in their last 15) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least four straight games.

Duke (29-7) has won five of their last six games after they survived the grinder with Syracuse on Friday by that 69-65 score. The Jayhawks do not typically play a zone defense — so we will hopefully be spared from watching Grayson Allen take jump shots that would be long 3-point attempts in the NBA. The Blue Devils have more NBA talent on their squad — and they rank in the Top-9 in the nation in Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. Mike Krzyzewski’s move to a 2-3 zone did in conference play did wonders for this team’s ability to slow down opponents on offense. They are more than capable from behind the arc with their 37.7% shooting clip (50th in the nation) while ranking 15th in the nation with their 56.0% mark inside the arc. They did not cover the 11-point spread against the Orange — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Duke has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing their second game in three days. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams outside the ACC. Lastly, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (721) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (720). Villanova (33-4) pulled away in a fast-paced and physical game with West Virginia on Friday in their 90-78 victory as a 5.5-point favorite. It might be a little more difficult for the Wildcats to recover from that contest that saw 76 possessions for both teams which included a lot of extra work to beat the full-court pressure of “Press Virginia.” As it is, Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Wildcats have covered all three of their games in this NCAA Tournament as the favorite laying points. But Villanova has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. The one type of team that has given this Wildcats group trouble this season are strong defensive units with elite point guard. This describes to a T — they are 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they are led by senior point guard Keenan Evans who can single-handedly put his team on his back. The Red Raiders probably would have won the Big 12 if not for Evans toe injury that kept him out of seven games during which Texas Tech lost five of them.

Texas Tech (27-9) has won five of their last six games with their 78-65 upset in over Purdue as a 2-point underdog. The Red Raiders have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Texas Tech has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning at least three straight games. The Red Raiders are playing outstanding defense in this tournament. Their three opponents scored only 63.7 PPG with none able to score more than 66 points. Texas Tech held them these three opponents to just a 41% field goal percentage. Evans is scoring more than 20 PPG in this Big Dance as well. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big 12. 20* CBB Texas Tech-Villanova CBS-TV Special with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (720). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Texas Tech (27-9) has won five of their last six games with their 78-65 upset win over Purdue on Friday. The Red Raiders made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was actually the best offensive performance in their last five contests. They also held the Boilermakers to just a 44.8% shooting percentage which sounds pretty good (especially against an offensive powerhouse like Purdue) — yet that was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. Texas Tech is a defense-first team that likes to play at a slower pace. They average 66.7 possessions per game which is the 247th fewest in the nation. Chris Beard’s team is 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While they are facing a Michigan team that scores 87.0 PPG, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that score at least 84.0 PPG. The Red Raiders have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total in Tournament action — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in the last 42 games on the road with no more than one day of rest, they have played 28 of these games Under the Total.

Villanova (33-4) has won eight straight games with their 90-78 win over West Virginia on Friday. The Wildcats held the Mountaineers to just a 38.6% field goal percentage in their victory. Villanova has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing with no more than one day of rest. The Wildcats made 23 of their 27 (85.2%) of their free throws against a West Virginia team that commits a ton of fouls as a by-product of their defensive pressure. Villanova has played 19 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a game where they made at least 78% of their free throws. There were 76 possessions in that game with West Virginia which may persuade many bettors into expecting another Over with Jay Wright’s offensive juggernaut that has put up amazing shooting numbers over the years. But in Villanova’s previous ten NCAA Tournament games, the average number of possessions was 63.8 which is far below this year’s average throughout all of Division One College Basketball of 68.3. The Wildcats made 13 of their 24 (54.2%) of their 3-point shots against West Virginia but those shots may be harder to come by against this Red Raiders’ defense that holds their opponents to just a 32.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (515) and the Michigan Wolverines (516). Florida State (23-11) flexed their muscles on defense on Thursday in their 75-60 upset win over Gonzaga as a 6-point underdog. The Seminoles held the Bulldogs to just a 33.9% field goal percentage in that game while stymieing them to score at a low 0.86 Points-Per-Possession rate. Florida State has significantly improved their play on defense in this NCAA Tournament. They opened their tournament by limiting Missouri to scoring at just a 0.78 PPP rate — and then they frustrated an offensive powerhouse in Xavier to scoring at just a 1.01 PPP rate. We had the Under in the Seminoles’ game on Thursday after discovering that their head coach Leonard Hamilton had overseen his team start playing at a slower rate. For the season, Florida State averages 71.4 possessions per game which is the 41st most in the nation. But this team slowed down to more closely resemble the style of play his teams were playing a few years ago. Prior to Thursday, the Seminoles three tournament games in the ACC Tournament and the Big Dance saw them have 69 possessions in each game. Against a Gonzaga team that likes to play fast — they saw 71 and 75 possessions in their first two NCAA Tourney games — Florida State saw just 70 possessions. Frankly, the oddsmakers (or, more precisely, the betting public) have not caught up to this slowing down of pace that the Seminoles will be happy to play against elite competition that can match their depth and athleticism. Florida State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Seminoles have also played 5 of the last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Florida State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. And in their last 12 games in the NCAA Tournament, the Seminoles have played 9 of these games Under the Total.

Michigan (31-7) has won twelve straight games with their 99-72 win over Texas A&M on Thursday. There were 72 possessions in that game which was an anomaly for this Wolverines team who had not had more than 67 possessions in regulation time in any game since January 13th. The Under is 4-0-1 in Michigan’s last 5 games after a game where they scored at least 90 points. The Wolverines shot a blistering 61.9% from the field against the Aggies — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they made at least 60% of their shots. Additionally, while Michigan has covered the point spread in eleven of their last thirteen games, they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least eight of their last ten games. Lastly, in the Wolverines’ last 7 games against teams outside the Big Ten, the game finished Under the Total 5 times. 10* CBB Saturday Night Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (515) and the Michigan Wolverines (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (516) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (515). Florida State (23-11) pulled off their second straight upset victory on Thursday when they stunned Gonzaga by a 75-60 score as a 6-point underdog. We had the Bulldogs in that game — and we were very disappointed to discover the news that Gonzaga’s star sophomore Killian Tillie was unable to play in that game due to an injury he suffered in practice. That was a fortunate set of circumstances for the Bulldogs — but their bubble looks ready to burst tonight against a very balanced Wolverines team that can match them with their depth. As it is, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games as an underdog. Florida State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. I think the Seminoles’ head coach Leonard Hamilton is very underrated — I was very impressed with his tactics and demeanor in the second-half of their upset win over Xavier last Sunday. The strength of this team is their depth — they played ten players on Thursday who logged in at least ten minutes. But Michigan matches that depth. Lets ignore their blowout win over Texas A&M on Thursday given their big lead. In their buzzer-beating win over Houston last Saturday, the Wolverines had eight players log in at least 10 minutes with a ninth player in Jaaron Simmons being a fifth-year senior who was the best player for Ohio last year who still grabs a few minutes a game as the third point guard in their rotation. The Seminoles simply do not do enough things well to compete against an elite unit like these Wolverines. Their defense was mediocre at best in the ACC where they ranked 13th in Adjusted Efficiency. They allowed ACC foes to make a whopping 40.4% of their 3-point shots which was 14th in the conference. On offense, they made only 33.0% of their 3-pointers which was 13th in the ACC. Florida State generates much of their points from drawing fouls as they led the ACC in free throw rate. But John Beilein teams generally do not commit many personal fouls. This year’s Michigan team is fouling more than in previous seasons — but they are still only averaging 16 personal fouls per game. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after 15 games into the season against teams that did not commit more than 17 personal fouls per game. Furthermore, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.

Michigan (31-7) had the best offensive performance for any team in this NCAA Tournament on Thursday with their 99-72 victory over Texas A&M as a 2.5-point favorite. The Wolverines scored at a 1.38 Points-Per-Possession rate against an Aggies team now ranks as the best best defense in the nation in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. Michigan shot 61.9% from the field while seeing 8 different players make 3-pointers en route to their 14 of 24 (58.3%) shooting mark from behind the arc. This is a big area of advantage for the Wolverines in this game. So too is their ability to score in transition given their diversity of scorers including agile big men like Mo Wagner and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman who can nail 3-pointers. Most opponents do not want to play at a pace that is fast against the Wolverines given these strengths. (Purdue was happy to do so which created two epic games before Michigan finally defeated them in the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game by 9 points). The Wolverines are in transition in just 16.5% of their possessions this season — but their scoring efficiency is in the 97th percentile in those situations. They torched Texas A&M in transition with 15 first-half points which helped them seize their 52-28 halftime lead. And while Florida State likes to play fast, they allow their opponents to see their possessions in transition in 20.2% of their possessions which is 318th in the nation. I just don’t think the Seminoles have enough scoring firepower — especially with their mediocre 3-point shooting — to keep up. But Florida State’s game is not in the half court either. They do crash the boards — but the Wolverines were 2nd in the Big Ten by holding their opponents to pull down just 24.3% of their missed shots. Moving forward, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road when playing with one day of rest. 25* CBB Elite Eight A-List Special with the Michigan Wolverines (516) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (513) and the Kansas State Wildcats (514). Kansas State (25-11) has won five of their last six games with their 61-58 upset win over Kentucky as a 5-point underdog on Thursday. The Wildcats eked out that game despite making only 35.2% of their shots which was their worst offensive effort in their last eleven games. Kansas State is winning with their defense — they have played all three of their games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. But with this Total dropping into the mid-120s, it is time be take the contrarian play with the Over. The Wildcats have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. Kansas State generates much of their offense from stealing the basketball. They are 3rd in the nation by averaging 12.0 Steals-Per-Game — and this is an area the Ramblers are vulnerable in as they allowing their opponents generate a steal in 10.1% of their possessions (313th in the nation). These steals produce transition scoring opportunities. The Wildcats have 11 and 13 steals in their last two games — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after earning at least 10 steals in two straight games. Additionally, Kansas State has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set below 130. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em, the Wildcats have played 5 of these games Over the Total.

Loyola-Chicago (31-5) has won thirteen straight games with their 69-68 upset win over Nevada as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. The Ramblers have then played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset victory. Loyola-Chicago has also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Additionally, while the Ramblers have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then played 16 of their last 27 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least four straight games. Lastly, while it is tempting to take the Under because these two teams hold their opponents to just a 41.6% and 42.2% opponent’s field goal percentage, those defensive numbers actually trigger a strong Over situational angle that has been 66% effective over the last five games. In games with the Total set in the 120 to 129.5 point range played on a neutral court after 15 games into the season, when both teams have defensive field goal percentages in the 40-42.5% range, these games finished Over the Total in 54 of the last 82 situations where these conditions applied. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (513) and the Kansas State Wildcats (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (513) plus (or minus if the point spread moves before tip off) the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (514). The similarities between these two teams just begins with the notion that neither of these 11th seeded and 9th seeded teams in the South Region were expected to reach the Elite Eight. Both of these teams are extremely well coached groups that emphasize defense first while playing at a slow pace. Neither team emphasizes rebounding although the Ramblers do a much better job in protecting their offensive glass. The Wildcats create more scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers — but the Ramblers counter that by being very good with their 3-point shooting. Loyola-Chicago (31-5) has the edge in this matchup. Three of their losses were without junior point guard Clayton Cluster available — so they are actually 31-2 when he is healthy and on the court. With five upperclassmen in their rotation, the Rambers are an experienced group. And this Loyola-Chicago team just has more reliable ways to generate offense. The Ramblers are 15th in the nation with a 39.9% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they also make 56.6% of their shots inside the arc (12th in the nation) with an intricate set of patient but effective maneuvers that helped them put on a shooting clinic in the second-half of their 68-68 victory over Nevada on Thursday. Loyola-Chicago has pulled off three straight upset victories in this tournament — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset victory. Additionally, the Ramblers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference — and they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court. And in their last 8 games as an underdog, Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread 7 times.

Kansas State (25-11) has won five of their last six games with their upset win over Kentucky on Thursday by a 61-58 score as a 5-point underdog. We had Kansas State in that game as I thought they matched up well with a long Kentucky team that would be facing the pressure of high expectations. But I think the limitations of this Wildcats team rears its ugly head in this contest. They were just 7th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 34.5% of their shots from behind the arc (202nd in the nation). And while they are reliable inside the arc with a 53.8% shooting percentage with their 2-point shots, they will be facing a Ramblers’ defense that limits their opponents to just a 46.9% of their shots inside the arc (56th in the nation). Interior defense is a surprising concern for this team as well — they allowed Big 12 opponents to make 52.7% of their missed shots (9th in the conference). I think this is were Loyola-Chicago wins the game. And all of this is compounded by the fact that Kansas State is still not getting much production of their best interior player in 6’10 Dean Wade. He was only able to play 8 minutes against Kentucky — and his team not only needs his 16 PPG but also his defensive presence down low. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game in three days. Kansas State looks due for a letdown as well as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning at least three straight games. Additionally, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against non-conference opponents. And in their last 13 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em, Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these games. 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (513) plus (or minus if the point spread moves before tip off) the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (518) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (517). Liberty (21-14) has won four of their last five games after their 65-52 win over North Carolina A&T way back on March 12th as a 12-point favorite. The Flames will benefit from the extra time off as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 boarded games when playing with at least seven days of rest. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 boarded games after a point spread win. The Flames went into halftime with a low-scoring 23-21 lead in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight boarded games after failing to score at least 25 points in the first half of their last game. Liberty gets to host this game on their home court where they are 11-6 this season with an average winning margin of +12.8 PPG. They hold their visitors to scoring just 58.7 PPG on a low 38.8% field goal percentage at home. The Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Liberty does an outstanding job of protecting their defensive glass — they are second in the nation by rebounding 80.1% of opponent’s missing shots. This will frustrate the Chippewas who led the Mid-American Conference in offensive rebounding. Additionally, Liberty has held their last five opponents to just a 35.3% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 boarded games as the favorite.

Central Michigan (21-14) has won five of their last six games with their 98-94 win at Wofford last Friday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Chippewas allowed the Terriers to make 54% of their shots in their win which is a concern for this team after Fort Wayne enjoyed a 55% field goal percentage in their opening game of the College Insider Tournament. Central Michigan was able to pull that game out by pulling down 32.4% of their missed shots while making 17 of their 38 (44.7%) of their 3-pointers. The Chippewas are likely to see their bubble burst in this tournament after pulling off two upsets in a row to reach the Quarterfinals. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after registering two or more upset victories in a row. Now Central Michigan stays on the road for their third straight game in this tournament. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two straight games on the road. Central Michigan is being outscored when they play on the road — and they are only making 43.1% of their shots away from home. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 54 road games after allowing at least 85 points in their last game. Lastly, Central Michigan has not committed more than 11 turnovers in four straight games — but that mark will be challenged against this Flames team that forced turnovers in 19.1% in Big South play. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in at least four straight games. 25* CBB College Insider Tournament Game of the Year with the Liberty Flames (518) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (873) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (874). Purdue (30-6) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-73 win over Butler as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. The Boilermakers won that game despite being without their anchor in the middle in Isaac Haas who suffered a broken elbow in their previous game against Cal-State Fullerton. His presence was missed in the middle as the Bulldogs made 60% of their shots inside the arc. Purdue does have a capable backup at center in another seven-footer in Matt Haarms — but the problem is that he cannot log a ton of minutes. He played 29 minutes against Butler which meant that the Boilermakers which left them very vulnerable inside the arc for those remaining 11 minutes. Depth is now a significant issue for this team that was riding high using four perimeter players surrounding their two seven-footers that head coach Matt Painter rotated between. As it is, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. The Boilermakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. I have two other concerns for this team. First, they are now even more dependent on their 3-point shooting after losing a player in Haas who was leading the nation in post-up points. Purdue takes over 40% of their shots from behind the arc — and while they have made 43% of these shots so far in the Big Dance, they are now facing a Red Raiders team that holds their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark behind the arc (41st in the nation). Second, the Boilermakers do not protect their defensive glass as opponents pull down 27.9% of their missed shots (137th in the nation). Texas Tech crashes the glass as they pull down 33.2% of their misses (45th in the nation). Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘e, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.

Texas Tech (26-9) has won four of their last five games with their 69-66 win over Florida on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. The Red Raiders won that game despite shooting only 44.5% from the field which was their worst field goal percentage in their last five games. Texas Tech is making only 32% of their shots from behind the arc in the Big Dance — but they should see more of those shots fall moving forward given their 36.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land this season. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after winning two straight games. Texas Tech has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. This Red Raiders team plays outstanding defense — they rank 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their first two tournament opponents are scoring at just a 0.93 Points-Per-Possession rate while making only 43% of their shots inside the arc. Texas Tech is led by a dynamic guard in Keenan Evans who is averaging 16.0 PPG — just in the second half — of their two tournament games so far. Remember, the Red Raiders were in the driver’s seat to win the Big 12 regular season crown until Evans suffered a toe injury that kept him out for seven games. Texas Tech lost four straight games and went 2-5 overall without the services of Evans. Now with Evans healthy again, this team remains significantly undervalued — especially as an underdog against an opponent with their own significant injury. Lastly, the Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the Big 12. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (873) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (876) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (875). Duke (28-7) has won four of their last five games with their 87-62 blowout win over Rhode Island on Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. The Blue Devils have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points. Duke now has the challenge in facing the Syracuse 2-3 zone — but they have a host of advantages that most of the Orange’s opponents have not enjoyed. First, the Blue Devils have already played Syracuse this season — with the results being a 60-44 victory for the Dukies. Second, Duke has the benefit of five days to adjust from that experience and prepare for this rematch. Third, the Blue Devils deploy a similar zone defense themselves which should help them appreciate the intricacies of what the Orange are trying to accomplish. In fact, it is the improved Duke defense that makes me most bullish on the Blue Devils. Syracuse made only 31.8% of their shots in that first meeting while making only 28.6% of their shots from behind the arc in that first encounter. Duke should also own the offensive glass against this Orange team that sacrifices defensive rebounding to extend their zone out to the perimeter. The Blue Devils lead the nation by rebounding 39.2% of their missed shots — and Syracuse allows their opponents to pull down 30.0% of their missed shots (242nd in the nation). Duke is also making 63% of their shots inside the arc in this tournament with their dynamic young frontcourt. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Duke has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in the NCAA Tournament.

Syracuse (23-13) registered their third straight upset win in the NCAA Tournament when they defeated Michigan State as a 10-point underdog on Sunday by a 55-53 score. I do worry about the point spread in this game — which is why it is only a 10* play — but there is certainly enough evidence to suggest that the Orange are due to see their bubble burst tonight. Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread win. The Orange have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning at least two straight games. Additionally, Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games on the road when it just their second game in a week. The Orange just don’t have enough offense to stay competitive with this Duke team that should do a much better job in taking advantage of all their second shots. Michigan State pulled down a remarkable 56% of their missed shots but still only shot 25.8% from the field. But Syracuse is shooting only 37.8% from the field in their first three NCAA Tournament games. 10* CBB Syracuse-Duke CBS-TV Special with the Duke Blue Devils (876) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (875). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (875) and the Duke Blue Devils (876). Syracuse (23-13) continued to refine their 2-3 zone defense on Sunday in their 55-53 upset win over Michigan State as a 10-point underdog. The Orange held the Spartans to just a 25.8% shooting percentage in that game. In their three NCAA Tournament games, Syracuse is allowing less than 54 PPG. The Orange will clearly want to continue to slow the tempo of this game down and hope the pressure of the moment will get to the Blue Devils as it did with the big favorites in Michigan State. The Syracuse zone has held these three opponents to making only 11 of their 54 (20.3%) shots from behind the arc. The Orange have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no better than a 33% field goal percentage. It is this stingy defense that has kept this Syracuse team competitive as they are making only 37.8% of their shots in the Big Dance themselves. The Orange have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Syracuse has also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Orange have played 6 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament.

Duke (28-7) has won four of their last five games with their 87-62 win over Rhode Island on Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. The Blue Devils shot 56.9% from the field in what was their best offensive performance in their last twenty-two games. This team has then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. While Duke will have the advantage of facing the Orange’s 2-3 zone defense earlier this season in their 60-44 victory, the Blue Devils scored at just a 0.93 Points-Per-Possession rate. Duke’s own matchup zone defense stymied the Syracuse offense in that game as they made only 31.8% of their shots while making only 28.6% of their shots from behind the arc. This young Blue Devils’ team has gotten only better in executing the schemes for their zone defense — their defense has catapulted to 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Orange hold their opponents to just 63.6 PPG — and Duke has played 10 of their last 12 games after fifteen games into the season Under the Total against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Blue Devils have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in the last 13 games in the NCAA Tournament, Duke has played 9 of these games Under the Total. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (875) and the Duke Blue Devils (876). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:37 PM on Friday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (872) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (871). West Virginia (26-10) has won four of their last five games after their 94-71 win over Marshall on Sunday. The Mountaineers held the Thundering Herd to just a 39.3% shooting percentage which was the lowest opponent field goal percentage they have seen in their last eight games. But Marshall still nailed 12 of their 26 (46.2%) shots from behind the arc as opponents continued to exploit West Virginia’s suspect perimeter defense. The Mountaineers rank 300th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.5% of their shots from 3-point range — and that is a scary proposition when facing this Villanova team that ranks 11th in the  nation by making 40.2% of their shots from downtown. The Wildcats stack up as a more polished version of the Kansas team that defeated West Virginia three times this season. “Press Virginia” wants to force turnovers to create more scoring opportunities — they rank 2nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.4% of their opponent’s possessions. But led by a rock-solid point guard in Jalen Brunson, Villanova turns the ball over in just 14.7% of their possessions which is 11th best in the nation (more on this below). If — and when — the Wildcats beat the Mountaineers’ press, then two things are likely to happen: open 3-point shots or getting fouled. West Virginia is a lousy 337th in the nation in defensive free throw rate — and this may be a gift for this Wildcats team that does not get to the line as much as they would like but still ranks 14th in the nation by making 77.4% of these shots. This is simply a bad matchup for Bob Huggins’ team since Villanova can handle their press. And it is very interesting to note that his Mountaineers’ have exited the Big Dance in Round of the 64 or the Sweet 16 in three straight seasons — and both those rounds share the similarity of affording their opponents more time to prepare for the West Virginia press. As it is, West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a point spread win. And while the Mountaineers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. Additionally, while West Virginia has won seven of their last nine games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games.

Villanova (32-4) had ten games this season where they turned the ball over in at least 17.2% of their possessions. The Wildcats won nine of these games with the closest contest being a win by 7 points. Their lone loss was a 76-71 loss to Providence on February 14th where they scored at just a 0.91 Points-Per-Possession rate while missing 17 of their 20 shots from downtown — so their poor shooting was the main culprit for their loss. It is interesting to note that while St. John’s forced turnovers in 23.9% of the Wildcats possessions in their 78-71 loss back on January 14th, the Red Storm actually only 8 turnovers in 11.4% of Villanova’s possessions in the rematch on February 7th but pulled off that 79-75 upset victory scoring at a 1.13 PPP rate while putting the Wildcats on the free throw line only 11 times (as compared to 22 times in their first encounter). Tennessee is similar to the Mountaineers profile in that they force turnovers and pound the offensive glass — yet the Vols lost to Villanova by an 85-76 score despite them forcing turnovers in 23.6% of Tennessee’s possessions. After analyzing all this data, I have concluded that Huggins may not even deploy the press all that often since it is playing into the hands of this Villanova team (and this uncertainty is probably having me passing on a totals play since that choice by Huggins will have a significant impact on the pace of the game). That looks to be the conclusion Chris Mullin came to with St. John’s in that second meeting that led to their surprising upset of the Wildcats. I just don’t think this West Virginia team can generate enough offense to keep up with the Wildcats. Villanova has raised their level of play on defense by holding their last seven opponents to only 63 PPG. They have won seven straight games after their 81-58 win over Alabama on Saturday against a Crimson Tide that supposedly had the composition to give them fits given their tough defense and a strong point guard in Collin Sexton. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win by at least 20 points — including covering the point spread in four of those last five occasions. And while that game finished Under the 149 point total, Villanova has then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Wildcats offense is scoring at a torrid 1.28 Points-Per-Possession rate — and this is a team that has not registered at least a 1.00 PPP mark in all but two of their games this year. Villanova has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. They also have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of these games. 20* CBB West Virginia-Villanova TBS-TV Special with the Villanova Wildcats (872) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (871). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (878) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (877). Clemson (25-9) looks to build off the momentum of their easy 84-53 upset win over Auburn as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. The Tigers held those Tigers to just a 25.8% field goal percentage in what was their best defensive performance of the season. But Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset victory by at least 15 points. The Tigers raced out to a 24-point halftime lead after taking a 12-point lead at the half in their first NCAA Tournament game against New Mexico State. Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after leading their previous two games by double-digits going into halftime. The Tigers’ blowout win over Auburn was aided by that team being without their best interior defender in the lanky Anfernee McLemore. Clemson is without their own top player in Donte’ Grantham who suffered a season ending injury last month. While the team is getting by without the 6’8 senior who was their best player, they entered the Big Dance scoring only 68 PPG since his injury after scoring 77 PPG with him in the mix. The Tigers have covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games which includes them failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games in those situations. Clemson has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 road games when it is just their second game in seven days. And in their last 12 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games.

Kansas (29-7) has won ten of their last eleven games after they disposed of Seton Hall by an 83-79 score last Saturday. The Jayhawks have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. Kansas advanced despite their best player Devonte Graham scoring only 8 points on 1 of 7 shooting against the Pirates. Graham should play better tonight — and the team should get more minutes from Udoka Azubuike after he was only able to play 22 minutes given his nagging injury. The Jayhawks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Kansas has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big 12. Lastly, the Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Clemson-Kansas CBS-TV Special with the Kansas Jayhawks (878) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (877). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Clemson (25-9) reached the Sweet 16 with their 84-53 upset win over Auburn on Sunday. The Tigers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just a 25.8% shooting percentage in what was their best defensive effort of the season. Clemson should be able to maintain this level of defensive intensity — they rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and have held their first two NCAA Tournament opponents to 32% shooting. The Tigers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games while playing 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. It is on offense where the Tigers are likely to receive a visit from the Regression Gods after they made 51.6% of their shots in their first two games in the Big Dance including nailing 16 of their 40 (40%) shots from behind the arc. Clemson is not a strong offensive team — they ranked 11th in the ACC in Adjusted Efficiency. The Tigers shooting inside the arc has been the biggest surprise as they made 46 of their 80 (57.5%) 2-point shots after making only 46.2% of their shots inside the arc in ACC play which ranked 10th in the conference. The season-ending injury to their best player in 6’9 Donte Grantham has really hurt the offensive effectiveness of this team. With Grantham on the court, Clemson was making 56.6% of their shots inside the arc — but without him, they see that number drop to just a 45.4% slip for their 2-pointers. They were scoring 77 PPG before Grantham’s injury but that number dropped to a 68 PPG clip for this team before they began the Big Dance. The Tigers benefited from playing New Mexico State and an Auburn team that suffered their own challenging season-ending injury in Anfernee McLemore who their best post defender. Moving forward, the Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in non-conference play.

Kansas (29-7) has won five straight games after they defeated Seton Hall by an 83-79 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Jayhawks have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Kansas’ rim protector Udoka Azubuike was only able to play 22 minutes in that win over the Pirates — but they did hold Seton Hall to a 45% field goal percentage. With the extra days to rest and rehab his knee, Azubuike should be able to impose his presence of the defensive end of the court tonight. And while the Jayhawks have scored at least 76 points in five straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in five straight games. Lastly, Kansas has played 29 of their last 40 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (819) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (820). At first and second glance, the Total for this game looked like a pass for me. On the one hand, both of these teams like to play at a blistering pace with the goal of increasing possessions which should benefit the perceived talent advantage both these teams believe they generally enjoy. However, both of these teams retain some personality traits that suggest they tend to play lower scoring games in situations like this. Upon a final review this afternoon, I uncovered sufficient evidence on the Florida State (22-11) side of the equation that triggers my investment on the Under. I don’t think Seminoles’ head coach Leonard Hamilton will necessarily think that his team has the talent edge versus the team that reached the NCAA Championship Game last year. Certainly Hamilton has to like the depth of his roster after he used eleven players last Sunday in their 75-70 upset win over Xavier as a 5.5-point favorite. And, unquestionably, Hamilton wanted to increase the pace of the game when his team was trailing by 12 points with 10:42 left in that game. But will Hamilton want to slow this game down if his team takes a lead in this game? That was his modus operandi for many years coaching this team. It is interesting to note that his team have seen the possessions per game drop to 69 in each of their three games in postseason play (including their one game in the ACC Tournament) despite their 71.5 possessions per game average. With expected better defensive play between these two teams and even 2-3 fewer possessions, that is the likely formula for an Under. Hamilton’s teams in the Big Dance have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Florida State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC.

Gonzaga (32-4) has won sixteen straight games after they outlasted Ohio State on Sunday in their 90-84 win that went well above the 144 point total for that game. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team did shoot 53.4% from the field which was their best offensive effort in their last four contests. Additionally, Gonzaga has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when the number is elevated to the 150 to 159.5 point range as it is for this game. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 13 games in the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga has played 9 of these games Under the Total. Expect a lower scoring game in what is expected to be a fast-paced contest. 10* CBB Florida State-Gonzaga TBS-TV Special with Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (819) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (820) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (819). Gonzaga (32-4) has won sixteen games in a row after they outlasted Ohio State on Sunday with their 90-84 win as a 4-point favorite. The Bulldogs won that game despite their experienced veterans not playing particularly well in that game. Sophomore Rui Hachimura and freshman Zach Norvell combined to score 53 points in that game despite not being in the rotation for Mark Few for this team last year that made their run to the National Championship Game. Look for the Gonzaga veterans to play better tonight. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning at least ten straight games. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. This is an outstanding team on both ends of the court as they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have enjoyed good starts in each of their last three games as they entered halftime with leads of 11, 9 and 9 points in each of their last three games. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after owning halftime leads of at least 5 points in each of their last three games. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — including covering the point spread in three straight games when favored on a neutral court by 6 points or less.

Florida State (22-11) has won two straight games since losing to Louisville in the ACC Tournament with their 75-70 upset win over Xavier on Sunday. The Seminoles were trailing by 12 points with 10:42 left in that game but embarked on a furious rally that included them outscoring the Musketeers by an 18-4 mark in the final 5:30 of that game to steal that victory. Frankly, a questionable foul on JP Macura late in that game which fouled him out played a big role in that game as it took away Xavier’s second best player. While that was a frustrating moment for those of us invested in the Musketeers, it is a reminder that Florida State was pretty fortunate during that comeback. This is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win by 6 points or less. While the Seminoles are tough by making 54.1% of their shots inside the arc (41st in the nation), they are too many things that this team struggles with that makes this a tough matchup against a very balanced Bulldogs team. Florida State was 13th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also allowed their opponents to pull down 29.8% of their missed shots (231st in the nation) — and this Gonzaga team crashes the glass to pull down 33.1% of their missed shots (47th in the nation). Furthermore, Gonzaga made only 33% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play which was 13th in the ACC. Not surprisingly, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* CBB Thursday Night Special Feature with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (820) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (819). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (813) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (814). Kentucky (26-10) has won five straight games — as well as nine of their last ten games — with their 95-75 blowout win over Buffalo on Saturday. After facing Davidson in the first-round of the Big Dance, these Wildcats see a significant jump in quality of competition from a Kansas State team which is one of four teams representing the Big 12 that are still alive in this tournament. The pressure of expectations on this very young team will likely help to keep this a close contest. Kentucky has seven freshman and two sophomores in their rotation. That’s it. They covered the point spread as favorites against Davidson and Buffalo — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. These Wildcats have shot at least 50% of their shots in four straight games but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after shooting at least 47% from the field in three straight games while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. Remember, this Kentucky team is still missing one of their best freshman in Jarred Valentine who remains questionable with an ankle injury. They remain suspect in transition defense — and they turn the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions. They face a Kansas State team that led the Big 12 in forcing turnovers while ranking 24th in the nation in forcing turnovers in 21.5% of their opponent’s possession. Those Wildcats have forced turnovers in 23% of their opponent’s possessions in this tournament.

Kansas State (24-11) has won four of their last five games with their 50-43 win over Maryland-Baltimore County as a 10-point favorite on Sunday. The Wildcats pulled that game out despite making only 1 of their 10 shots from behind arc and shooting just 40.9% from the field which was their worst offensive effort in their last ten contests. Kansas State should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. These Wildcats held their two tournament opponents to just 51 PPG on low 32% shooting. They stymied a power Creighton offense last Friday by holding the nation’s 20th most efficient offense to scoring at just a 0.89 Points-Per-Possession rate which was eons below their 115.6 Adjusted Efficiency for the season. Bruce Weber is a great coach who should keep his team in this game — and he hopes to get his best player in Dean Wade back on the court tonight after he has missed the last few games with a foot injury. The Wildcats have played their last two games Under the Total — and they have then covered the points spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. Lastly, Kansas State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. 20* CBB Kansas State-Kentucky CBS-TV Special with the Kansas State Wildcats (813) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (817) and the Michigan Wolverines (818). Texas A&M (22-12) has won five of their last six games with their 86-65 upset win over North Carolina on Sunday as a 7-point favorite. The Aggies were outstanding on defense in that game as they held the Tar Heels to just a 33.3% shooting percentage while limiting their scoring rate to just a 0.84 Points-Per-Possession mark which was North Carolina’s third least efficient offensive performance of the season. Texas A&M has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Aggies have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. Texas A&M has been dominant on the boards so far in this tournament having out-rebounded their first two opponents by +14 and +18 boards. They have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after out-rebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 Rebounds-Per-Game. Now the West Regional moves to the Staples Center in Los Angeles — and the Aggies have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em.

Michigan (30-7) has won eleven games in a row with their 64-63 win over Houston on Saturday. The Wolverines won that game through their defense as they held the Cougars to just a 37.0% shooting percentage. Michigan now ranks  third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have needed this strong play on defense considering that that scored at less than a 1.00 Points-Per-Possession rate in their first two games of the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines tend to play lower scoring games in the Big Dance under head coach John Beilein with 6 of their last 7 games in the postseason finishing Under the Total. Michigan has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. And while the Wolverines have covered the point spread in nine of their last eleven games, they have then played played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after they have covered the point spread in at least eight of their last ten games. 10* CBB Texas A&M-Michigan TBS O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (817) and the Michigan Wolverines (818). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (818) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (817). Michigan (30-7) has won eleven straight games with their 64-63 buzzer-beating win over Houston last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. The Wolverines on the game despite making only 35.6% of their shots in that game which was their worst offensive performance of the season. Michigan also made only 8 of their 30 shots from behind the arc (26.7%) which was far below the 37.3% mark they enjoyed from 3-point range in Big Ten play. Given the Wolverines credit for doing what was necessary to win their two games played in Wichita despite not playing at their best. Don’t be surprised if this team plays much better tonight — they face an opponent in these Aggies that match up very well against them. As it is, Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. The Wolverines have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. This is a good pairing for this Michigan team because Texas A&M does a great job in taking away second chances for their opponents on offense with their outstanding frontline. But the Wolverines sacrifice offensive rebounding with getting back on defense. However, Michigan does commit themselves to protecting their defensive glass: they are 3rd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 8.0 PPG in Second-Chance Opportunities — and that mark has dropped to just 7.0 PPG on Second-Chance-Opportunities in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a neutral court.

Texas A&M (22-12) has won five of their last six games with their 86-65 upset win over North Carolina on Sunday as a 7-point underdog. The Aggies enjoyed a true outlier performance in playing probably their best game of the season to pull off this blowout upset victory. For starters, they made 51.7% of their shots which was their best offensive effort in their last five games while also nailing 10 of their 24 shots (41.7%) from behind the arc. Texas A&M only made 30.6% of their 3-point shots in SEC play. They also held the Tar Heels to just a 33.3% shooting percentage while limiting them to scoring at just a 0.84 Points-Per-Possession rate which was their third worst offensive performance of the season. North Carolina lives off second-chance opportunities but they only pulled down 17% of their missed shots against the Aggies frontcourt. Expect a big letdown from this team now as they are just 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games after a win by at least 20 points. Texas A&M has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their lat 14 games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. Additionally, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. And while Texas A&M has allowed only 28 and 27 points in the first-half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first-half in two straight games. The vulnerability of this team is in their backcourt where injuries and suspensions have left them to a freshman in T.J. Starks who started the year fifth on their depth chart. Starks has steadily improved this season — and played quite well against the Tar Heels — but he remains the Achilles’ heel for this team. He has turned the ball over 11 times in his two NCAA Tourney games. He faces a stiff challenge in being defended by the Wolverines’ Zavier Simpson who has been a shutdown defender against elite point guards all season. Michigan faces turnovers in 19.3% of their opponent’s possessions (116th in the nation) while the Aggies turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions (231st in the nation) with their question marks with their ball handlers. Lastly, Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (818) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (815) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (816). Nevada (29-7) found themselves trailing by 22 points with just 10:57 left in the second half on Sunday against a Cincinnati team with a very stingy defense. Yet the Wolf Pack starting making their shots and rallied to stun the Bearcats (and me) by a 75-73 score. That upset victory came on the heels of Nevada also rallying from a 14-point deficit against Texas to win their opening round game in the Big Dance. This Wolf Pack team is loaded with offensive talent although they have not been quite as dynamic since losing their point guard Lindsey Drew to a season-end Achilles’ injury last month. Nevada finds themselves in the Sweet 16 despite enjoying a lead in just 4 minutes and 16 seconds in their first two games in this tournament. Living on the edge is simply not sustainable. To compound matters for this Wolf Pack team, their depth is very thin as they are down to only six players in their rotation with even two of those players hampered with nagging injuries. Foul trouble or another injury setback would be calamitous for this team. As it is, they are just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by 3 points or less. And while they committed only 2 turnovers in their win over Cincinnati, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not committing more than 8 turnovers in their last game. Nevada has the lowest turnover rate in the nation but most of that data involves Drew running their offense. They are now facing a Ramblers team that forces turnovers in 20% of their opponent’s possessions. Additionally, while Nevada has covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. And while the Wolf Pack have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games.

Loyola-Chicago (30-5) reached the Sweet 16 with their 63-62 win over Tennessee as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Ramblers are getting it done with defense as they have held their last seven opponents to no more than 62 points. This Loyola team is 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 62 PPG — and they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency under head coach Porter Moser who is a Rick Majerus disciple who specialized in defensive play. They have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 65 points in at least five straight games. This team has lost only two games this season without the services of guard Clayton Custer who was injured for three of their losses. With five upperclassmen in their rotation, ranking 7th in the nation in effective field goal percent and so far making 39% of their shots in the tournament from behind the arc, this team has the intangibles to keep advancing in the Big Dance. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference. The Ramblers are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Loyola-Nevada CBS Tip Off with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (815) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (816). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (815) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (816). Loyola-Chicago (30-5) has won twelve games in a row with their 63-62 upset win over Tennessee on Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Ramblers made 50% of their shots in what was their best offensive performance in their last six games. But this game shapes up to be a defensive battle. Loyola has held their last seven opponents to 62 or fewer points. The Ramblers have seen all those seven games finish Under the Total — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. Additionally, Loyola has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Ramblers have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court, Loyola has played all 6 of these games Under the Total.

10* CBB play with the Under. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (767) and the Saint Mary’s Gaels (768). Utah (21-11) reached the NIT Quarterfinals on Monday with their 95-71 blowout won over LSU as a 5-point favorite. But the Utes have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Utah has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Utes go on the road where they are scoring only 68.5 PPG on 44.0% shooting. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Under is 3-1-1 for Utah.

Saint Mary’s (30-5) has won six of their last seven games with their 85-81 win over Washington as an 11-point favorite on Monday. The Gaels made 56.4% of their shots against the Huskies which was their third straight game where they made at least 50% of their shots after having a 50% field goal percentage in their loss in the Semifinals to BYU on the West Coast Conference Tournament. Saint Mary’s has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in three straight games. The Gaels get to host this game with the winner getting one of the four invitations to Madison Square Garden for the NIT Semifinals. Saint Mary’s has played 14 of their last 17 games on their home court Under the Total. The Gaels have also played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Lastly, in their last 14 games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 11 times. 10* CBB Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (767) and the Saint Mary’s Gaels (768). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Saint Mary’s Gaels (768) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (767). Saint Mary’s (30-5) has won six of their last seven games after defeating Washington on Monday as an 11-point favorite to advance to the Quarterfinals of the NIT. The Gaels are tough to beat when they get their offense going as they have in this tournament. They made 56.4% of their shots in their win over the Huskies on the heels of making 59.3% of their shots in their 89-45 blowout win over Southeastern Louisiana in the opening round of the NIT last Tuesday. Saint Mary’s have then covered the point spread in a decisive 49 of their last 67 home games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 85 points their last two games. The Gaels have the luxury of staying at home for this contest which will be their last game on their home court this season before the Semifinals are played in Madison Square Garden. This is the third straight game that Saint Mary’s was the home favorite in this tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after playing their last two games at home as the favorite. The Gaels are 18-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +17.8 PPG. Saint Mary’s makes 51.1% of their shots at home while limiting their opponents to just 60.9 PPG on low 41.7% shooting. Additionally, the Gaels have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 opportunities to play a team from the Pac-12.

Utah (21-11) reached the Semifinals with their easy 95-71 win over LSU on Monday as a 5-point favorite. The Utes shot 57.9% from the field which was their best offensive performance of the season — so a letdown is very likely for this team at least on the offensive end of the court. Utah has has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. And while the Utes raced out to a 47-30 halftime score, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. Utah has been very good at home this season where they enjoyed a 15-3 record in the higher altitude in Salt Lake City — but they are just 6-8 on the road with an average losing margin of -4.2 PPG. The Utes make only 44.0% of their shots away from home which provides another reason why they are not likely to come close to matching the 57.9% they enjoyed against LSU. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. And in their 4 games against teams from the West Coast Conference, the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in all 4 games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 119-42 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Saint Mary’s Gaels (768) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (767). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (766) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (765). Oklahoma State (21-14) has won five of their last six games with their 71-65 win over Stanford on Monday as an 8-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. The Cowboys did not cover the point spread in that game against the Cardinal but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while Stanford pulled down 55 rebounds in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 51 rebounds in their last game. Furthermore, that win over the Cardinal finished below the 154 point total — and Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a game that finished Under the Total. The Cowboys get to host this game in Stillwater where they are 15-5 this season with an average winning margin of +9.5 PPG. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.

Western Kentucky (26-10) has won four of their last five games after their 79-75 upset win at USC on Monday as a 4-point favorite. That was a depleted Trojans team that was without their best player in Chemezie Metu who decided to not play in the NIT to protect his health for the NBA draft. Now the Hilltoppers have to stay on the road in a quick turnaround back in Stillwater. As it is, Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games after playing a game as an underdog. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. This team has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 34 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 6 point range. And in their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range, Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 83-39 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CBB Western Kentucky-Oklahoma State ESPN Special with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (766) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (765). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (778) plus (or minus) the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (777). North Texas (17-17) is playing its best basketball of the season in March as they followed up a 13-point win at South Dakota in the opening round of the College Basketball Invitational with their 96-67 blowout win over Mercer as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Sophomore Roosevelt Smart has continued his breakout season by averaging 32.5 PPG in this tournament but he is being joined by junior guard Jordan Duffey who is finding his own rhythm with this team after scoring 31 points while nailing 6 shots from behind the arc in that win over the Tigers. First-year head coach Grant McCasland deserves a tremendous amount of credit for continuing to lead his team to improvement this season. He inherited a Mean Green team that was 8-22 overall while winning only two of their eighteen conference games. But this North Texas team was 8-10 in Conference USA this season including the suffering of three tough losses in a 6-point loss at Middle Tennessee along with an overtime loss at home to Western Kentucky and a 2-point loss to Marshall. McCarsland pulled off a similar feat last season when he led Arkansas State to a 20-12 mark after they were just 11-20 in the previous season. This Mean Green team is very motivated to continue to build momentum for next season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. UNT has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game as an underdog. The Mean Green opened as a small favorite in this game — but the line movement has them a small dog now in many spots. Regardless, North Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home in expected home games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams outside Conference USA.

Jacksonville State (23-12) reached the Quarterfinals of the College Basketball Invitational with their 80-59 win at Central Arkansas as a 2-point favorite on Monday. The Gamecocks may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. This is a challenging situation as it is for this team who played that game on Monday while their campus was hit by a tornado. This is the third straight game on the road for this team in this tournament — and they have not played a home game since closing out their Ohio Valley Conference regular season by hosting Belmont way back on February 22nd. Jacksonville State has failed to cove the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least two straight games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three straight games after winning two straight on the road. 25* CBB CBI Semifinals Game of the Year with the North Texas Mean Green (778) plus (or minus) the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (777). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (668) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667). Louisville (22-13) reached the Quarterfinals of the NIT with their 84-68 win over Middle Tennessee on Sunday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Cardinals are then 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after a win on their home court. David Padgett’s team gets to host this game which will be their last game on their home court all season with the Semifinals being played in Madison Square Garden. The Cardinals are 16-5 on their home court this season with an average winning margin +12.0 PPG. They hold their visitors to just a 40.2% field goal percentage on their home court. Louisville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 16 home games against teams outside the ACC, the Cardinals have covered the point spread 12 times.

Mississippi State (24-11) enters this game coming off their 78-77 upset win at Baylor as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Bulldogs may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 13 games after winning more than one game in a row. Mississippi State was hot from behind the arc in that game as they made 13 of their 22 shots (59.1%) from 3 point land in that contest. Together, these team trends produce our specific 57-22-2 combined angle for this situation. The Bulldogs rank 329th in the nation with a 32.5% shooting percentage from behind the arc so it is highly unlikely that they will be able to replicate that feat tonight. Mississippi State has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after nailing at least 13 3-pointers in their last game. The Bulldogs are just 5-9 on the this season. They also allow their home hosts to make 35.8% of their shots from downtown which is not a good sign when facing this Cardinals team that makes 37.8% of their shots from 3-point land on their home court. 10* CBB Mississippi State-Louisville ESPN Special with the Louisville Cardinals (668) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667) and the Louisville Cardinals (668). Mississippi State (24-11) has won two straight games — as well as three of their last four games — with their 78-77 upset win at Baylor on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Mississippi State has also played a decisive 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court.

Louisville (22-13) reached the NIT Quarterfinals with their 84-68 win over Middle Tennessee on Sunday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Cardinals have then seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Louisville has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win on their home court. Additionally, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667) and the Louisville Cardinals (668). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (660) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (665). Marquette (21-13) has won two straight games — as well as five of their last six games — after their 101-92 win over Creighton in the second round of the NIT as a 5-point favorite. The Golden Eagles have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 85 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 175 combined points in their last game. And while that was Marquette’s first point spread cover in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They get to host this Quarterfinals matchup where they are 13-6 with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG. Additionally, the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

Penn State (23-13) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 73-63 upset win at Notre Dame on Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Nittany Lions held the Fighting Irish to shooting just 38.3% from the field which was their best defensive effort in their last eleven contests. The score of this game at halftime was 28-23 in favor of Penn State — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 29 road games after allowing no more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. The Nittany Lions stay on the road where they are 8-9 this season. They make only 45.1% of their shots on the road — and they are shooting just 36.5% from the field over their last five games. They will have trouble keeping up with this Marquette team that ranked 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting no more than 6 points — and in their last 4 road games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 4 of these games. 10* CBB Penn State-Marquette ESPN Special with the Marquette Golden Eagles (660) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (665). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (621) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (622). St. Mary’s (29-5) reached the second round of the NIT last Tuesday with their 89-45 win over Southeastern Louisiana as a 14.5-point favorite. The Gaels torched the Lions by making 59.3% of their shots which was the best offensive effort in their last eight games. This game shapes up to be more of a defensive struggle. St. Mary’s has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 30 points. Additionally, the Gaels have paled 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread. Furthermore, this team has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. St. Mary’s gets to host this second round game where they are holding their opponents to just 59.8 PPG on 40.9% shooting. The Gaels have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total on their home court. And in their last 5 games against non-conference opponents, St. Mary’s has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

Washington (21-12) advanced to the second round of the NIT with their 77-74 upset win over Boise State as a 2-point last Wednesday. The Huskies held the Broncos to just a 35.4% shooting percentage as they continued to play well on that end of the court leading the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But Washington was 10th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency so they will need to lean on their defensive play to stay competitive in this game. They make only 43.2% of their shots on the road. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington has also played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Lastly, the Huskies have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB NIT Second Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (621) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (620) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (619). Utah (20-11) has won 2 of their last three games after their 69-59 win over Cal-Davis in the first round of the NIT last Wednesday as a 12-point favorite. The Utes are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after an ATS loss. Utah gets to host this Second Round game where they are 14-3 with an average winning margin of +12.5 PPG this season. This Utah team plays very good defense — they are holding their visitors to just a 47.1% shooting percentage. They host a Tigers team that was last in the SEC in offensive rebounding with a 25.1% rate that was last in the conference. That is a good thing since the Utes were 10th in the Pac-12 in defensive rebounding. LSU was 12th in the SEC on free throw rate while only making 33.4% of their missed shots (8th in the SEC). What the Tigers do best on offense is make shots inside the arc as they were 3rd in the SEC by making 52.3% of their 2-point shots. But Utah ranked 2nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 47.1% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Utes are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games — and they are 41-14-2 ATS in their last 57 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.

LSU (18-14) has won two of their last three games with their 84-76 win over UL-Lafayette as a 3.5-point favorite last Wednesday in their opening game in the NIT. That was an emotional game for this Tigers team that is punching down by establishing a feud with their in-state neighbors. Don’t be surprised if this team experiences a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a win on their home court. LSU is also just 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 7-19-3 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread victory. And while the Tigers have scored at least 78 points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 10 road games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. LSU goes on the road where they are just 4-10 with an average losing margin of -8.3 PPG. The Tigers make only 44% of their shots away from home which is far below their 47.7% field goal percentage for the season — but the bigger concern is on the other of the court as they allow their home hosts to make 48.5% of their shots. LSU was 11th in the SEC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Lastly, they are just 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. 25* CBB NIT Second Round Game of the Year on the Utah Utes (620) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (619). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (722) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (721). Marshall (25-10) upset Western Kentucky last week to win the Conference USA Tournament — and they pulled that feat off again on Friday when they upset Wichita State despite being a 13.5-point underdog with their 81-75 victory. Dan D’Antoni and his up-tempo system that seeks to maximize offensive efficiency — like what his brother Mike does as the head coach of the Houston Rockets — has received much adulation over the last two days. But the Thundering Herd look primed for a big letdown now. Somehow, this amazing “system” has never helped his brother reach even the NBA Finals with any of the various teams he has coached. And somehow, the Thundering Herd had lost ten times this year before finding magic in these last two games. But Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning at least five straight contests. Additionally, that victory over the Hilltoppers was another close call by just one point — and the Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last two contests by 6 points or less. Frankly, this is now a bad matchup for Marshall as they are playing another team that excels in the efficiency formula for success. The Thundering Herd shoot 45.4% of their shots from behind the arc despite making only 35.7% of those shots. They thrive inside the arc where they make 56.0% of their 2-point shots which is 19th best in the nation. But the Mountaineers hold their opponents to just a 45.7% of their shots inside the arc (29th in the nation). Furthermore, Marshall sacrifices rebounding for the fast pace they want on both ends of the court. The Mountaineers are vulnerable to teams that pound the offensive glass (not Marshall) — but they pull down 36.7% of their missed shots which is 4th best in the nation. The Thundering Herd are 308th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.0% of their misses — and they have been out-rebounded by 15 and 10 boards in their last two games. Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after being out-rebounded by double-digits in two straight games. 

West Virginia (25-10) struggles in their half-court offense — so they will be thrilled to engage in fast up-and-down game where they can find better scoring opportunities in transition. The Mountaineers facilitate their fast break by forcing turnovers — they rank 2nd in the country by forcing turnovers in 23.4% of their opponent’s possessions. West Virginia has won three of their last four games with their 85-68 win over Murray State on Friday as a 10-point favorite. That game finished above the 145.5 point total in that contest — and they have then covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game that finished Over the Total. The Mountaineers committed only 8 turnovers against the Racers as they continue to maximize their shot volume by protecting the basketball and crashing the boards for second-chance points. They have not committed more than 11 turnovers in three straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in two straight contests. Moving forward, West Virginia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Lastly, Bob Huggins has been very reliable with this team in the NCAA Tournament vis-a-vis point spread expectations. Not only are the Mountaineers 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 games in the Big Dance but they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in this Round of 32 where opponents have only a day to prepare. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year with the West Virginia Mountaineers (722) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (721). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Xavier Musketeers (720) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (719). Xavier shot 54.7% from the field on Friday in an offensive display that resulted in their easy 102-83 win over Texas Southern. Look for the Musketeers to build off their momentum in this game as they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and that tightens to them covering the point spread in a crisp 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they scored at least 100 points. Chris Mack’s team is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams outside the Big East. And in their last 32 games in the NCAA Tournament, Xavier is an impressive 24-6-2 ATS.

Florida State (21-11) enters the Round of 32 after they defeated Missouri by a 67-54 score as a 1-point favorite. The Seminoles benefited from the Tigers making only 32.7% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage an opponent shot against them in their last twenty games. That was also their first point spread win in their last nine games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Florida State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. 10* CBB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Xavier Musketeers (720) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (719). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (712) minus the points versus the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (711). Maryland-Baltimore County (25-10) made history in being the first team to knock off the number one ranked team in the country in Virginia by a 74-54 score. How did they do it? It starts with the Cavaliers being sluggish on offense in their first game since their most dynamic offensive player in De’Andre Hunter suffering his season-ending injury. Virginia only scored 21 points in the first-half of that game — but their defense held serve with the Retrievers also only scoring 21 points. But we knew this day would happen eventually when a 16 seed would defeat a 1 seed — especially with the increased use of 3-point heavy offenses. The ole credo of “live by the 3, die by the 3” is the ultimate evener of playing fields. UMBC starting making 3-pointers while the pressure felt by the Cavaliers contributed to their not being able to hit the side of a barn. The result was the Retrievers’ 74-54 blowout victory. UMBC finished the game making 12 of their 24 shots from behind the arc while Virginia made only 4 of their 22 shots from downtown. It is nearly impossible for any team to overcome those results. What is incredible is that the Retrievers scored 53 points in the second-half — and the Cavaliers held fourteen opponents this season to that number or less for the entire game. What UMBC accomplished is the epitome of outlier performance. It will be very hard for them to come close to replicating that feat. Those players probably did not get a wink of sleep Friday night. They may come out strong tonight — but a physical and emotional crash is highly likely to eventually happen.

Kansas State (23-11) is not a good matchup for the Retrievers that are hoping that their adrenaline rush can carry them into the Sweet 16. The Wildcats are extremely well-coached under Bruce Weber who deploys a controlled system that attempts to stifle the athleticism of opposing teams. Kansas State ranks 34th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they also rank 57th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from behind the arc. They held Creighton to just a 33.8% shooting percentage from the field in their 69-59 upset win over the Bluejays as a 2.5-point underdog. Creighton made only 9 of their 24 shots from downtown in that loss. The Wildcats tend to struggle against bigger teams that crash the glass — they allow their opponents to rebound 34.1% of their missed shots which is 9th worst in the country. But this is not what UMBC does as they only rebound 22.7% of their missed shots (which is also 9th lowest in the nation if my blurry notes are accurate). Kansas State can struggle to score points — but this Retrievers’ team has the nation’s 155th defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency so it is safe to say that they have found scoring success against much better defenses in the Big 12. The Wildcats have covered the points spread in 8 of their last 12 games after fifteen games into the season against opponents with a winning percentage in the 60 to 80% range. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in the month of March. Lastly, while UMBC launches 26 shots from 3-point land per game, Kansas State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after fifteen games into the season against teams that average at least 21 shots from downtown. 10* CBB Maryland-Baltimore County-Kansas State TruTV Special with the Kansas State Wildcats (712) minus the points versus the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (718) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (717). Nevada (28-7) has not been the same basketball team since losing Lindsey Drew to a season-ending Achilles’ injury. The Wolf Pack lost twice to San Diego State after that injury including in a brutal blowout loss in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Semifinals last week. But Nevada showed a tremendous amount of grit by surviving overtime on Friday by outlasting Texas by an 87-83 score. Unfortunately for this Wolf Pack team, they will likely have not much left in the gas tank to face this very difficult Bearcats team this afternoon. Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing their second game in three days. The Wolf Pack have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 6 points or less. And Nevada is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, this Wolf Pack team has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog.

Cincinnati (31-4) has won eight straight games with their 68-53 win over Georgia State on Friday as a 14-point favorite. The Bearcats should continue dominating their competition this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win as a double-digit favorite. Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least eight straight games. The Bearcats get it done with defense as they are 2nd in the nation in both Adjusted Efficiency and opponent’s effective field goal percentage. Nevada loves to shoot 3s — but Cincinnati is 7th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 30.9% mark from downtown. The Bearcats have not allowed more than 61 points in six straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing no more than 65 points in four straight games. Lastly, Cincinnati should dominate their offensive glass. They are 2nd in the nation by rebounding 38.5% of their missed shots — and the Wolf Pack allowing their opponents to rebound 29.1% of their misses (203rd in the nation). 10* CBB Nevada-Cincinnati TNT Special with the Cincinnati Bearcats (718) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (717). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (709) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (710). North Carolina (26-10) has won four of their last five games with their 84-66 win over Lipscomb on Friday. The Tar Heels have then played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And while that game on Friday finished Over the 166.5 point total, North Carolina has then played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing a game with no more than one day of rest. The Tar Heels are playing better basketball on the defensive end of the court as their last five opponents have shot just 37.2% from the field. Additionally, North Carolina out-rebounded the Bison by +18 boards in that win — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 rebounds. Moving forward, the Tar Heels have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, North Carolina has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

Texas A&M (21-12) has won four of their last five games with their 73-69 won over Providence on Friday as a 2.5-point favorite. The Aggies made 50% of their shots from the field which was their best offensive effort in their last four contests. Texas A&M is extremely one-dimensional with their offense given their depleted backcourt. While they make 52.2% of their 2-point shots, they rank 280th in the nation by converting a mere 32.9% of their shots from behind the arc. That strong Aggies front court did out-rebound the Friars by a 44-28 margin — and they have then played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after a game where they out-rebounded their opponent by at least 15 boards. Additionally, Texas A&M has played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 36 of their last 54 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Lastly, the Aggies have played 25 of their last 34 games on the road Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (709) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (710) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (709). Texas A&M (21-12) has won four of their last five games with their 73-69 win over Providence on Friday. The Aggies shot 50% from the field in that game which was their best offensive effort in their last four contests. But this Texas A&M team has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread win. This Aggies team has a talented front court — but the injury to starting point guard Duane Wilson and his backup getting kicked off the team which has left the team thin in talent and depth at the guard position. The result is a team that turns the ball over too much while not making enough 3-point shots. The Aggies turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions (234th in the nation) and they make only 32.9% of their 3-point shots (280th in the nation). Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games.

North Carolina (26-10) has won four of their last five games with their 84-66 win over Lipscomb on Friday as a 22-point favorite. The Tar Heels dominated that game but it was still not quite enough to cover that big point spread (one of the reasons why it take quite a lot of evidence for me to endorse favorites laying that many points). North Carolina has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after winning a game as a favorite where they did not cover the point spread. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 15 points. And while the defending National Champions have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Moving forward, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on a neutral court when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. And in their last 7 games played on a neutral court with the total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range, the Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 6 of these games. 10* CBB Texas A&M-North Carolina CBS-TV Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (710) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (709). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (716) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (715). Syracuse (22-13) pulled off their second straight upset victory in this NCAA Tournament with their 57-52 win over TCU on Friday as a 4.5-point underdog. The bubble is about to burst for the Orange this afternoon. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two straight games as an underdog — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three of the last four of those situations. Syracuse has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. And in their last 12 games after winning two straight games, the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games

At 12:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (714) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (713). Purdue (29-6) had a bittersweet experience on Friday: they advanced to the Round of 32 with their easy 74-48 win over Cal-State Fullerton but they lost their 7’2 big man Isaac Haas for likely the rest of the season after he broke his elbow in that game. Haas did practice yesterday and wants to give it a go but head coach Matt Painter made it pretty clear that he will not be able to play. While the loss of Haas is a very unfortunate blow, pundits who think that spells the death knell of this team do not understand how the Boilermakers operate. For starters, Painter has a very capable backup in the 7’3 Matt Haarms who averaged 15 Minutes Per Game serving in the exact same role as Haas. And while the senior was more polished playing the role of the one man down low surrounded by four sharpshooters on the perimeter, Haas averaged only 23 Minutes Per Game. What really hurts this Boilermakers team is the blow to the depth of this team. Painter will have to resort to more small-ball lineups — but that will not be an issue when facing this Bulldogs team whose tallest two starters are just 6’8 and 6’7. Some bettors may look to Virginia and their historic upset they suffered on Friday after the season-ending injury to De’Andre Hunter. Frankly, it is more common for bettors to over-compensate for injuries in the short-term as teams tend to rally around each other after the loss of an important player. Bettors also tend to under appreciate the value of the replacement players. I expect this outstanding Purdue still led by three very experienced seniors to play quite well today. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They are led by a dynamic sophomore in Carsen Edwards who is their best player. This is a team that is 2nd in the nation by making 42.0% of their shots behind the arc — and they will be facing a Butler squad that ranks a low 279th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.0% of their 3-pointers. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Big Ten. Purdue has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament, this team has covered the point spread in 6 of these games.

Butler (21-13) has won two of their last three games with their 79-62 win over Arkansas as a 2-point favorite on Friday. The Bulldogs played one of their best games of the season to get by the Razorbacks. They shot 49.2% from the field which was their best shooting effort in their last five games — and they limited Arkansas to just a 35.7% field goal percentage which was their best defensive performance in their last six contests. Butler was buoyed by nailing 11 of their 26 shots from behind the arc — but they are unlikely to replicate that 42.3% shooting effort from 3-point land when considering that that rank just 127th in the nation by making only 35.8% of their 3-point shots. This Bulldogs team under first-year head coach LaVell Jordan no longer shares the same DNA as the old Brad Stephens teams. On paper, the Butler offense remains quite efficient as they rank 25th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency. But the Bulldogs no longer crash the offensive glass as they rebound only 27.5% of their missed shot — ranking 214th in the nation. Additionally, Butler does not get to the free throw line given their Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 26.1% which ranks 335th in the nation. The Bulldogs’ offensive efficiency comes from not turning the ball over while making 54.1% of their shots inside the arc. But Purdue plays outstanding interior defense as they rank 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 44.8% shooting mark for their 2-point shots. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. Lastly, the Bulldogs do have the opportunity to avenge an 82-67 loss to the Boilermakers on a neutral court back on December 16th. But Butler is not a reliable when playing with revenge as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 75 points. 20* CBB Sunday Afternoon Tip Off with the Purdue Boilermakers (714) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (713). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (529) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (530). Houston (27-7) has won six of their last seven games after they outlasted San Diego State on Thursday by a 67-65 score as a 4-point favorite. The Cougars have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. This Houston team are very aggressive style of defense that has helped them produce an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that is 16th in the nation. The Cougars force a healthy amount of turnovers that results in their opponents coughing up the basketball in 19.3% of their possessions (114th in the nation). One of the biggest vulnerabilities for this Houston team is that this aggressiveness and pressure is that it results in too many personal fouls — Houston is 324th in the nation with a defensive Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 41.8%. That might make the Wolverines the ideal opponent for the Cougars. Michigan ranks only 65.6% of their free throwers which ranks 332nd in the nation. More on the Wolverines and their free throw woes in a moment. Needless to say, the John Beilein offense slows down if their complicated set of screens are compromised by mediocre free throw shooters showing up at the charity stripe. Turnovers on offense can be an issue for this Houston team that was 4th in the American Athletic Conference with a 17.2% turnover rate. But the Cougars committed only 7 turnovers against the Aztecs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than 8 turnovers in their last game. Houston was led in that game by their superstar point guard Robbie Gray who took over that game with San Diego State with his 39 points. Gray’s presence on the court helps the Cougars cover the point spread in 5 of their last  games as the underdog. They are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Houston has covered the point spread in 6 of these games.

Michigan (29-7) has won ten straight games with their 61-47 win over Montana on Thursday as a 10-point favorite. The Wolverines started slow in that game by falling into a 10-0 hole before grinding their way back into the game. Montana shot only 32.1% from the field and could barely hit the side of a barn in the second-half of that game. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where neither team failed to score more than 65 points. The Wolverines made only 14 of 22 (63.6%) of the free throws as that problem continued to rear its ugly head. In fact, Michigan was that ineffective at the free throw line even without their point guard Zavier Simpson not being put on the free throw line despite his meager 51.9% free throw rate. Just as frustrating for us Montana bettors that night, Charles Matthews actually made 6 of his 8 free throws with many of them in the waning Back Door Cover moments despite his 56.3% free throw mark for the season. The Grizzlies committed 7 more personal fouls than the Wolverines in that game after Purdue committed 5 more fouls than them in the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game — but Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing two straight games when their opponent committed at least five more personal fouls than them. Lastly, the Wolverines have covered point spread expectations in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. 20* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Houston Cougars (529) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (535) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (536). Ohio State (25-8) survived an upset scare on Thursday by outlasting a dangerous South Dakota State team by an 81-73 score

At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (532) minus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531). Loyola-Chicago (29-5) pulled off a nice upset on Thursday with their 64-62 win over Miami as a 1.5-point underdog. The Ramblers pulled off that win by making four more shots from behind the arc (8) than the Hurricanes which made for them allowing the Hurricanes to make 51% of their shots as compared to their own 47.3% shooting percentage. That is not a good sign now against a loaded Tennessee team against which they simply do not match up well against. The teams that give the Volunteers trouble are the ones that pound the offensive glass. The Volunteers rank 288th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.3% of their misses. But Loyola-Chicago commits to playing defense in transition rather than going for second-chance shots as they rank 6th from dead last in the nation with a 22.2% offensive rebounding rate. These limited second chance opportunities combine with the fact that these Ramblers can be loose with the basketball — they rank 194th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.7% of their possessions. This low Shot Volume dynamic becomes very troublesome against an elite defensive unit like what they will be facing with the Volunteers. Loyola-Chicago has been fortunate to not turn the ball over more than 10 times in their last four contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not turning the ball over more than 11 times in at least three straight games. This is just their second game since March 4th when they won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing their second game in eight days. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court with the Total in the 130 to 134.5 point range, the Ramblers have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

Tennessee (26-8) looks to build off their easy 73-47 win over Wright State on Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Volunteers are then 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games after a win by at least 20 points. Tennessee flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Raiders to just a 31.7% shooting percentage. They went to halftime with a dominant 34-23 lead — and the Vols have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after holding their last opponent to no more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Tennessee is 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 12th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. The Ramblers do have a 50.6% field goal percentage this season — but the Volunteers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage over 48%. Lastly, Tennessee is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Loyola-Chicago-Tennessee TNT Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (532) minus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531) and the Tennessee Volunteers (532). Tennessee (28-8) played perhaps their best defensive game of the season on Thursday in their 73-47 win over Wright State. The Volunteers held the Raiders to just a 31.7% shooting percentage which was their best defensive performance of the season. Expect another outstanding defensive effort from Rick Barnes’ team as they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 50 or less points in their last game. Tennessee has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. This Vols team boasts the nation’s 5th best statistical defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. They should slow down this Ramblers’ juggernaut. Tennessee can be exploited on the offensive glass — they allow their opponents to rebound 31.3% of their missed shots which is 288th in the nation. But this Loyola-Chicago team sacrifices offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they only rebound 22.2% of their missed shots which is 332nd lowest in the nation. Of course, the Ramblers’ commitment to getting back on defense will frustrate the Volunteers who love to get their offense going on the fast break. Tennessee struggles in their half-court offense — they make only 47.2% of their shots inside the arc (282nd in the nation). Tennessee has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the Volunteers have played 9 of these games Under the Total.

Loyola-Chicago (29-5) reached the Round of 32 with their 64-62 win over Miami (FL) has a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. The Ramblers eked that game out by making 47.3% from the field which was their best offensive effort in their last five games. But they also allowed the Hurricanes to make 51% of their shots which as their worst defensive effort in their last twenty-six contests. Expect Loyola-Chicago to play much better on defense this afternoon. This team ranks 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Tennessee makes over 38% of their 3-point shots — but the Ramblers rank 44th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from behind the arc. Loyola-Chicago has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And with that game with the Hurricanes finishing below the 133 point total, the Ramblers have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Loyola’s previous game resulted in a 65-49 victory over Illinois State in the Finals of the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in their last two games. The Ramblers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight contests. Loyola-Chicago’s offense stems primarily from good shooting — they are 8th in the nation in effective field goal percentage while ranking 14th in the nation with a 40.0% shooting mark from downtown. But the Volunteers rank 12th in the nation in their opponent’s eFG while limiting their opponents to just a 31.5% shooting mark from behind the arc which is 14th best in the country. Lastly, the Ramblers have played 5 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round Two Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531) and the Tennessee Volunteers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (538) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (537). Buffalo (27-8) pulled off their most impressive win of the season on Thursday when they shellshocked a listless Arizona team by an 89-68 score despite being a 9-point underdog. The Bulls made 54.8% of their shots in that game including nailing half of their 30 shots from behind the arc. When teams make their 3-pointers — and they shoot a lot of them like Maryland-Baltimore County last night — then those teams are hard to beat. But the fact is that this Buffalo team had not come close to accomplishing anything like that before this game. Their most impressive victory to date before dispatching of the Wildcats were a pair of wins against Toledo. And don’t blame this on major conference opponents avoiding them on the schedule. The Bulls played five teams in this year’s Big Dance with the following results: a 6-point loss to Cincinnati, a 7-point loss to Syracuse, a 9-point loss to St. Bonaventure, a 14-point loss to South Dakota State, a 16-point loss to Texas A&M. It makes me comfortable taking Kentucky laying the 6 points that was the lowest losing margin of these NCAA Tourney teams. Remember, this Bulls team is small — they do not have a rotation player taller than 6’8. This Buffalo team is also a group that suffered losses to Miami (OH), Northern Illinois and Kent State that rank 192nd or worse via the kenpom metrics. I like this Buffalo team (I avoided some angles that pointed to taking Arizona on Thursday) — but I think their blowout win says more about the mental and emotional state of that Wildcats program that it does about a sleeping giant in this mid-major.

Kentucky (25-10) has raised their level of play just time in time for March Madness as they have won four straight — as well as eight of their last nine contests — with their 78-73 win over Davidson on Thursday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Wildcats should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Frankly, if freshman Jarred Valentine were not listed as questionable, the grading of this play would be higher. But this Kentucky team has still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 23 games played on a neutral court, John Calipari has seen his team go 16-5-2 ATS. 10* CBB Buffalo-Kentucky CBS-TV Special with the Kentucky Wildcats (538) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (524) minus the points versus the Rhode Island Rams (523). Rhode Island (26-7) reached the Round of 32 with their 83-78 win in overtime over Oklahoma as a 1.5-point favorite on Thursday. But the Rams have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and having to bounce-back on short rest after a grueling overtime game will be difficult for this team. Rhode Island made only 39% of their shots against a mediocre Sooners defense after making just 38.5% of their shots in their previous game which was their upset loss to Davidson in the Atlantic-10 Tournament Championship Game. This Rams’ team struggles in their half-court offensive sets. Their effective field goal percentage of 51.3% ranks 158th in the nation. That is not a good sign when facing this Blue Devils zone defense that resurrected their poor play on defense midseason. Rhode Island thrives by generating offense in transition with their dynamic group of athletic players. However, they rarely encounter an opponent that can match them in pure athleticism and talent — and that certainly will be the case this afternoon when facing all these future NBA players in the Duke rotation. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also allowed Oklahoma to pull down 54 rebounds in that victory despite the Sooners ranking just 192nd in the nation in offensive rebounding and 237th in the nation in defensive rebounding. Rhode Island has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing their last opponent to rebound at least 57 boards in their last game. The Rams allow their opponents to pull down 27.8% of their misses which is a middling 136th in the nation — and that is a scary proposition when facing this Blue Devils team that leads the nation by rebounding 39.2% of their missed shots.

Duke (27-7) looked very good on Thursday in their 89-67 win over Iona as a 21-point favorite. The Blue Devils made 13 of their 30 shots (43.3%) from behind the arc en route to a cool 53.7% shooting percentage for the game. Duke should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. This Blue Devils team is the only team in the nation with both their Offense and Defense ranking in the Top Ten in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. The switch to a zone defense has done wonders for this group and has provided Duke their best statistical defense in years. They held a powerful Gaels’ offense to just a 43.3% shooting percentage which helped that final score finish below the 160.5 point total — and the Blue Devils have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Duke can still struggle against patient teams on offense that make extra passes to free up open shooters particularly from the outside. That is not this Rhode Island team as they are neither patient and they made a low 32.5% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play. Teams that play stout on the defensive end also are the ones most likely to give Duke trouble. Unfortunately for the Rams, they struggle in their half-court defense as they allow their opponents to make 50.3% of their shots inside the arc which ranks 194th in the nation. The Blue Devils will find too many easy baskets down low against this team with Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter leading the way to a 55.8% shooting percentage inside the arc which is 20th in the nation. Duke has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Lastly, Mike Krzyzewski’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the Big Dance. The Blue Devils can match the Rams in athleticism while dominating them on both ends of the court in half-court sets. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (524) minus the points versus the Rhode Island Rams (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (526) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (525). I appreciate that Alabama (20-15) has the composition of the team that could give the Wildcats fits. The Crimson Tide play tough physical defense while leading the SEC in 3-point defense. They also boast a dynamic point guard in Collin Sexton — and Villanova has struggled against that brand of player. But I see an Alabama team that is ripe for a huge letdown after their triumphant 86-83 win over Virginia Tech on Thursday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Crimson Tide made a whopping 60% of their shots in that game in what was their best shooting performance going all the way back to their third game of the season against lowly Alabama A&M back on November 17th. That was simply an outlier performance — especially when considering that they made 8 of their 18 shots from behind the arc (44.4%). This is a team that finished 12th in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They ranked 285th in the nation with a 32.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they make only 44.1% of their shots when away from home. I think the Regression Gods are coming. And when the shots stop falling, Avery Johnson’s team turns the ball over too much — they rank 288th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.3% of their possessions. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 80 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after making at least 60% of their shots in their last game. Alabama has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. But perhaps the bigger concern about this Crimson Tide team is their recent play on defense. The Hokies made 55.6% of their shots against them on Thursday in that losing effort — and that includes them nailing 9 of their 18 shots from behind the arc (50%). That came on the heels of them Alabama allowing Kentucky to make 64.3% of their shots in their worst defensive effort of the season last Saturday in the SEC Semifinals in what turned out to be an 86-63 loss. Those Wildcats made 12 of their 18 shots from downtown (75%) which means the Tide have seen their last two opponents made 21 of their 36 shots from 3-point land (58.3%). Now here comes another Wildcats team in Villanova that makes 40.1% of their 3-pointers. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. And in their last 4 games against teams from the Big East, the Tide have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times.

Villanova (31-4) has won six straight games after they easily disposed of Radford by an 87-61 score — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Wildcats were very comfortable shooting the basketball in Pittsburgh’s PPG Paint Arena as they made 59.6% of their shots including 14 of their 27 shots from downtown (51.9%). Villanova has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a game where they made at least 13 shots from 3-point land. And while they held the Highlanders to just a 33.9% shooting percentage, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a game where they shot at least 57% from the field while holding their last opponent to no better than a 43.% field goal percentage. Jay Wright’s team has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. Villanova has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the NCAA Tournament. And in their last 24 games as a double-digit favorite, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 17 times. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Tip Off with the Villanova Wildcats (526) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (876) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (875). TCU (21-11) enters the Big Dance on a two-game losing streak after they were upset by Kansas State as a 3-point favorite last Thursday in the Big 12 Tournament. Head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to bounce-back as the Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road after an upset loss. Furthermore, TCU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Horned Frogs are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. Much will be made about TCU’s ability to handle the Syracuse 2-3 matchup zone — but Dixon has plenty of experience matching wits with Jim Boeheim given his long tenure at Pitt. Dixon’s teams won fifteen of their twenty-one games against Syracuse over his tenure. Dixon’s teams always are well-schooled in making extra passes that serve to expose the holes that zone defenses inevitably leave. This Horned Frogs team is 7th in the nation in assisted field goal rate. It is telling that TCU won both their games this season against a Baylor team that also deploys a similar zone defense scheme. The Syracuse zone also leaves a very soft spot down low for offenses to crash the glass. I noted in Wednesday’s Report on the Orange to defeat Arizona State that this year’s Syracuse team was actually doing a better job in protecting their defensive glass. Yet this Orange team is still allowing their opponents to pull down 29.1% of their missed shots which is 203rd in the nation. These Horned Frogs can exploit that weakness as they rank 20th in the nation by rebounding 34.5% of their missed shots. TCU should overwhelm the Syracuse defense — they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range.

Syracuse (21-13) found a way to outlast Arizona State on Wednesday in their 60-56 upset win over the Sun Devils. I thought coaching would play a huge role in that game with Boeheim having a huge advantage over debutante Bobby Hurley who was coaching his first game in the Big Dance. Boeheim holds no such advantage in this chess match with Dixon. I expect a letdown now from the Orange as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. Offense is the biggest problem for this Syracuse team after they finished second-to-last in the ACC in both field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. The Orange made only 40.8% of their shots on Wednesday — and they are making just 38.1% of their shots over their last five games. Syracuse is also making only 39.4% of their shots on the road. The Orange scored only 59 points in their last game against North Carolina — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last two games. Syracuse does like to clean up their messes by crashing the boards — they pull down 34.8% of their missed shots this season. But this TCU team limits their opponents to rebounding only 25.9% of their missed shots so these second chance opportunities will be harder to come by tonight. Lastly, fatigue may play a role in slowing down the Orange tonight. The Syracuse bench is thin — and Boeheim leans very heavily on Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett who all averaged more than 39 Minutes Per Game this season. Playing with just a one day turnaround does not make things easier for that trio that is carrying this team. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year on TCU Horned Frogs (876) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (875). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (894) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (893). Charleston (26-7) is a trendy Cinderella pick in some circles having won fourteen of their last fifteen games after winning the automatic bid from the Colonial Athletic Association with their 83-76 win over Northeastern back on March 6th. Funny, the conventional wisdom about the Cougars entering the CAA Tournament was that they were underachieving relative to the high expectations the team had by returning all five of their starters. During the CAA Tournament, they had a significant advantage with the event being hosted just down the street from them in Charleston. More importantly, this is a terrible matchup for them. Charleston wants to slow the tempo of the game down — but they get into trouble against teams that push the pace to take advantage of their athleticism. Unfortunately for the Cougars, that is a very apt description of this Auburn team. Furthermore, the Kryptonite for the Tigers have been big teams that can take advantage of their lack of size — but Charleston is also a small team. Auburn is simply more athletic and should neutralize the things the Cougars usually like to take advantage of against other opponents. As it is, Charleston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games as the favorite — and they are an ugly 19-50-1 ATS in their last 70 games after a point spread win. The Cougars have a trio of good scorers — but they see a big drop-off after that with a weak bench. It is telling that Charleston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against SEC opponents.

Auburn (25-7) has lost three of their last four games with their 81-63 upset loss to Alabama despite being a 6.5-point favorite last Friday in the SEC Tournament. The Tigers have bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering an upset loss. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. An injury to Afernee McLemore a month ago impacted this team’s ability to deal with the size — but missing his 6’7 frame will not be as big an issue in this matchup. The Tigers made only 32.3% of their shots against the Crimson Tide which was their worst shooting effort in their last five games — so they should shoot better tonight. Crashing the boards should offer Bruce Pearl’s team a big edge tonight. Auburn pulls down 33.0% of their shots — and Charleston allows their opponents to rebound 28.0% of their missed shots. Offensive rebounding combines with the Tigers stingy turnover rate to lead the Tigers to be the 8th best team in the nation when it comes to the Shot Volume metric. Combine their propensity to produce scoring attempts along with their outstanding team free throw percentage of 78.6% which is 6th in the nation — and Auburn should pull away in this game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Lastly, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams outside the SEC. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Auburn Tigers (894) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (893). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Marshall Thundering Herd (889) and the Wichita State Shockers (890). Marshall (24-10) has won four straight games — as well as ten of their last twelve games after winning the Conference USA Tournament with their 67-66 upset win over Western Kentucky as a 6-point underdog last Saturday. The Thundering Herd has then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Head coach Dan D’Antoni deploys the same run-and-gun up-tempo 3-point shooting offense that his brother is overseeing with the Houston Rockets. 45.6% of the Thundering Herd’s shots are from behind the arc with 36% of their points coming from those shots. This fast pace has also resulted in Marshall allowing 79 PPG — and most of those opponents do not compare to the offensive talent that they will be facing with this Shockers team. Some bettors may be tempted by the Under given this is being played at 10:30 AM local time in San Diego — but both these teams are quite content in taking high-percentage shots inside the arc. The Thundering Herd make 56.1% of their 2-point shots which is 15th best in the nation. The fast pace should help push this game Over the big number — Marshall has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total when the Total is in the 160 to 169.5 point range. Furthermore, the Thundering Herd have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total against non-conference opponents. 

Wichita State (25-7) has lost two of their last three games entering the Big Dance after they were upset by Houston by a 77-74 score last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. The Shockers have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. This Wichita State team is loaded with scorers — this team is 4th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. While they make 38.5% of their 3-point shots (37th in the nation), the Shockers are also making 53.8% of their shots inside the arc which is 40th in the nation. More importantly, Wichita State scores 83.0 PPG despite playing at just the 150th fastest pace in the nation — so it is their uber-efficiency that propels them to that scoring clip. The Shockers will likely embrace the fast pace of the Thundering Herd given their mediocre play on defense. Wichita State ranked just 109th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season which was a big drop for this Gregg Marshall coached team from previous seasons. The Shockers have scored at least 90 points ten times this season — and they have an excellent chance to reach that mark again. Wichita State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Shockers have also played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total as the favorite — and they have also played 13 of their last 17 games as a double-digit favorite. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Marshall Thundering Herd (889) and the Wichita State Shockers (890). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Providence Friars (867) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (868). Texas A&M (20-12) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the SEC Tournament with their 71-70 upset loss to Alabama as a 3-point favorite. It might be difficult for this Aggies team to bounce-back as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss to an SEC rival. This team has a strong frontcourt but they lack depth at guard given a season-ending injury to starting point guard Duane Wilson along with backup point guard J.J. Caldwell being kicked off the team. The point guard position was a concern for this team entering the season with Wilson as a transfer from Marquette happily addressed for this team. Now this Texas A&M team has only thee guards in their rotation. This lack of talent of guard is one of the biggest reasons why they shot only 30.6% of their shots from behind the arc in SEC play. Furthermore, the Aggies turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions which is 231st in the nation — and they will be facing a Friars team that does a solid job of forcing turnovers at an 18.9% clip (137th in the nation). These holes in guard play hurt this team’s ability to pull out close games. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against  teams with a winning record. Additionally, this team struggles at the free throw line which makes them a precarious favorite. They rank 315th in the nation by making only 66.7% of their free throws. That is not a good characteristic for a program that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in NCAA Tournament play.

Providence (21-13) has a similar profile to the Alabama team that upset the Aggies in the SEC Tournament. The Friars play tough defense while being led by a dynamic guard in Kyron Cartwright. Providence ranked 36th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing the second fewest Points-Per-Possession in SEC play. The Friars were also 25th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 32.1% clip from behind the arc. They lost in the Big East Tournament Championship Game in a heartbreaking 76-66 loss in overtime to Villanova. In fact, that was the third straight overtime game that this Providence team played in the Big East Tournament. That may scare off some bettors — but that brutal stretch was six days ago. Upsetting Xavier and taking Villanova to overtime just last week demonstrates the mettle and grit of this team under head coach Ed Cooley. Providence has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Even with overtime, that game with the Wildcats last Saturday finished below the 144.5 point total with Cooley successfully slowing the tempo in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after playing a game which finished Under the Total. And this team has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court. Lastly, this is a showdown between a well-coached overachieving team in Providence versus a Texas A&M team helmed by head coach Bill Kennedy that perhaps has the opposite profile with a very talented but perhaps undisciplined too often on the court. That is a formula to take the underdog. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Tip Off with the Providence Friars (867) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:50 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Montana Grizzlies (733) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (734). Michigan (28-7) has won nine games in a row — culminating with upset wins over Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive days to win the Big Ten Tournament back on March 4th. John Beilein is one of the best coaches in College Basketball — but this Wolverines team is not nearly as reliable when being asked to cover double-digit point spreads against feisty rivals. For starters, an emotional letdown should be expected for this team after playing underdog in those final two games to win the Big Ten Tournament. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after registering two straight upset losses. The long layoff is an issue for this team that led the Big Ten by averaging 24.8 shots from behind the arc per game while generating 43% of their offense from 3-point land. Playing on an unfamiliar neutral court for the first time in eleven days may mess with the accuracy of their long jump shots. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with at least seven days between games. Now this team has the burden of the pressure of expectations against a potential Cinderella opponent. Remember, this team almost was upset by Iowa in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament where the Hawkeyes were able to rally back to force overtime. The Achilles’ heel for the Wolverines is their free throw shooting — they rank 329th in the nation by making only 65.7% of their shots from the charity stripe. Compounding this problem is that two of their key ball handlers in point guard Xavier Simpson and wing Charles Matthews make only 51.9% and 56.1% of their free throws. They made only 18 of their 32 (56.2%) of their free throws in that Iowa game — and this provides a blue print for Montana to keep their game close with the Wolverines. The other problem for Michigan against the Hawkeyes was that their two starting big men in Moritz Wagner and Muhammad-Ali Abdur Rahman both fouled out in that game — and the interior depth for this team gets thin pretty quickly. The Wolverines avoided foul troubles against the Spartans and Boilermakers as they committed ten less personal fouls and five less personal fouls respectively in those games. But Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after committing at least five less personal fouls than their opponents in two straight games. Montana predicates their game on drawing fouls and winning the free throw battle — so this is a real area of vulnerability for the Wolverines. Furthermore, Michigan committed only 5 turnovers in their 75-66 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than 5 turnovers. Beilein-coached teams always do a great job in protecting the basketball — but they cannot expect to replicate their microscopic 7.8% turnover rate which was about half of their still outstanding rate for the season.

Montana (26-7) does an outstanding job in forcing turnovers — they rank 30th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.2% of their missed shots. The Grizzlies also rank 33rd in the nation by pulling down 32.3% of their missed shots — so this is a double-digit underdog that does little things to generate more scoring opportunities. Montana has won 19 of their last 21 games en route to winning both the Big Sky regular season as well as the Big Sky Tournament after they crushed their in-state rival Montana State by an 82-65 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Look for them to build off their momentum as they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread win. The Grizzlies averaged a robust 86 PPG in their three conference tournament games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game that finished Over the Total. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing three straight Overs. This Montana team is tough to beat when their offense gets going because they are so good on the defensive end of the court. They rank 38th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 46.1% shooting percentage inside the arc — and that opponent’s field goal percentage for 2-point shots dropped to a 44.0% mark in conference play. The Grizzlies also make it tough for their opponents to launch 3-point shots as they ranked 28th in the nation with their opponents taking only 32.3% of their shots inside from 3-point land. In conference play, opponents made only 33.0% of their 3-point shots. On offense, Montana will attack Wagner and Rahkman down low as they make 51.9% of their shots inside the arc (ranking 97th in the nation) while seeing that number rise to a 52.7% mark in conference play. The Grizzlies get to the free throw line as they ranked 46th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 38.9% — and that ratio rose to a 40.6% mark in Big Sky play. Montana made a healthy 72.6% of the free throws in conference play. But perhaps the most important metric in handicapping this game is that the Grizzlies rank 318th in the nation with an opponent’s FTA/FGA ratio of 41.3% — they will be very comfortable putting Michigan on the free throw line to expose their problems on the charity stripe. I don’t see the Wolverines covering a double-digit point spread if their FTA/FGA ratio approaches the 32/62 splits that they endured in that Iowa game. Lastly, Montana has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams outside the Big Sky. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Underdog of the Year with the Montana Grizzlies (733) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (734). Best of luck for us — Frank.