At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (797) and the TCU Horned Frogs (798) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arizona State (23-12) has won three of their last four games after their 98-73 victory as a 2-point favorite in their First Four NCAA Tournament game on Tuesday. TCU (21-12) has lost two of their last three games after a 66-60 loss to Texas as a 1.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arizona State torched the nets by making 63.6% of their shots against the Wolf Pack including 11 of their 22 shots from behind the arc. That was, by far, their best offensive effort of the season. But this team possesses an effective field goal percentage of just 47.3% when playing on the road, ranking 269th in the nation. The Sun Devils have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. TCU only shot 35.6% from the field in their loss to the Longhorns last week. This team lost their best inside presence when 6’11 Eddie Lampkin left the program a few weeks ago. They rank 218th in the nation in their last ten games on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 48.9%. The Horned Frogs have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after a loss to a Big 12 rival.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court. 8* CBB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (797) and the TCU Horned Frogs (798). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (769) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (25-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 85-78 loss to Duke as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament last Friday. Drake (27-7) has won three in a row — and 13 of their last 14 contests — after their 77-51 victory against Bradley as a 2-point favorite in the Championship Game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on March 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at MVP Arena in Albany, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Miami (FL) has been one of the most effective teams when playing away from home this season — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on a neutral court or hostile environment. It starts with the efficiency of their offense as they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Drake ranks 50th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using those same power rankings — but they drop to 70th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from using those metrics. They give up +3.0 points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and they are allowing +5.4 more points per 100 possessions versus playing at home in their last ten games on the road. Now they face an angry Hurricanes team that allowed Duke to nail 54.9% of their shots last week which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Miami (FL) lost Norchad Omier early in that game to an ankle injury — and his absence was felt in their interior defense. At 6’7, Omier and Jordan Miller are the two tallest players in their starting five lineup. While he helps their offensive efforts by scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game this season, he is important for their frontcourt defense and keeping opponents off their offensive glass. Duke pulled down 36.0% of their missed shots with Omier missing most of that game.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 8* CBB Drake-Miami (FL) TBS-TV Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (769). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (769) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (27-7) has won three in a row — and 13 of their last 14 contests — after their 77-51 victory against Bradley as a 2-point favorite in the Championship Game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on March 5th. Miami (FL) (25-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 85-78 loss to Duke as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at MVP Arena in Albany, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Drake won all three of their games in their Arch Madness by at least 12 points while shooting 47.1% or better from the field in each game. But the Bulldogs have then played 8 straight games Under the Total on the road after winning at least three games in a row by double-digits. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in three straight games. Drake has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Bulldogs’ efficiency on offense drops by -2.4 points per 100 possessions when they play away from home. Now they face an angry Hurricanes team that allowed Duke to nail 54.9% of their shots last week which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Miami (FL) lost Norchad Omier early in that game to an ankle injury — and his absence was felt in their interior defense. At 6’7, Omier and Jordan Miller are the two tallest players in their starting five lineup. While he helps their offensive efforts by scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game this season, he is important for their frontcourt defense and keeping opponents off their offensive glass. Duke pulled down 36.0% of their missed shots with Omier missing most of that game. The Hurricanes tighten things up on that end of the court tonight as they have played 8 straight Unders after allowing 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after slowing 85 or more points in their last game. Furthermore, Miami has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. According to their Adjusted Efficiency numbers, the Hurricanes allow  -10.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total played on a neutral court — and they have played 5 straight games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. Drake has played 4 straight games Under the Total played on a neutral court. 25* CBB First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (769) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: NC State (23-10) limps into the NCAA Tournament having lost three of their last four games after their 80-54 loss to Clemson as a 1-point underdog in the ACC Tournament last Thursday. Creighton (21-12)  had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-60 upset loss to Xavier as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the Big East Conference Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: NC State only made 35.0% of their shots against the Tigers which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They also allowed Clemson to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. The Wolfpack gets to take advantage of the big reset that the NCAA Tournament offers — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. This is a team that is better than their overall record since starting forward Jack Clark has missed 11 games earlier in the season to injury — and three of NC State’s losses were without a healthy Clark. The laptops like this team because they are solid across the aboard in most areas (except for getting to the free throw line). They rank in the top-118 teams in the nation in both forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds — so they have credible Plan Bs and Cs if their shots are not falling. They also rank second in the nation by turning the ball over in just 13.4% of their possessions — so they usually take advantage of their scoring opportunities. They have two high quality guards in Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner. NC State presents a challenge matchup against the Bluejays since they are willing to take so many 3s. The Wolfpack attempt 24 shots from behind the arc per game while nailing an average of eight per contest. Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who throw up 21 or more 3-point attempts per contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who nail eight or more 3-pointers per game. The Bluejays are a good team but they can be too dependent on making their shots since they do not create additional scoring opportunities. Creighton ranks 352nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.3% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank 271st in the nation by rebounding only 25.5% of their missed shots. Additionally, they rank 290th in the nation in getting to the foul line. In their last four losses, they shot only 28.7% from behind the arc — missing 72 of their 101 shots from 3-point land in those four games. The Bluejays may struggle getting off the mat after getting thumped by the Musketeers in the Big East tournament. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: NC State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC. Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored on a neutral court by 3.5 to 6 points. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Vermont Catamounts (743) plus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (744) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. Vermont (23-10) rides a 15-game winning streak after their 72-59 victory against UMass-Lowell as a 6.5-point favorite in the America East Conference Tournament Championship Game last Saturday. Marquette (28-6) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 68-51 victory against Xavier as a 2-point favorite in the Big East Tournament Championship Game last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CATAMOUNTS PLUS THE POINTS: Vermont took the America East title last week despite making only 44.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Catamounts typically feed off their momentum as they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. Vermont will attempt to steal this game by making 3-pointers from their five-out offensive scheme. In their last ten games away from home, they are nailing 38.2% of their 3-pointers, ranking 36th in the nation. Marquette is vulnerable against sharpshooters like this — they allow their opponents to make 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing on the road in hostile environments or neutral courts. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 58 of their last 90 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Vermont has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Marquette has not covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. 8* CBB Vermont-Marquette CBS-TV Special with the Vermont Catamounts (743) plus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (744). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:55 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (754) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (753) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (25-9) saw their four-game winning streak end in the SEC Championship Game in an 82-63 loss to Alabama as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Penn State (22-13) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 67-65 loss to Purdue as a 7.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game last Sunday, This game will be played on a neutral court at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: I am wary of upstarts entering the Big Dance after a surprising run in their conference tournament — and the Nittany Lions fit this profile to a T. This group went from being on the bubble last week at this time to a trendy pick to reach the Elite Eight in some (woozy) circles. Slow down, everybody. Penn State’s three victories in the Big Ten tournament against Illinois, Northwestern, and Indiana benefited from those three teams combining to make only 14 of their 59 shots from behind the arc (23.7%). The expected score projections based on shot quality and national field goal percentage averages (the equivalent of expected goals in soccer) indicate that Penn State should have lost each of the games during their five-game winning streak. Now this team makes a rare appearance in the NCAA Tournament — and they are primed for a letdown given the personality of this team. The Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. And while this “red-hot” Penn State team has covered the points spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. This is a team who lives or dies by their outside shooting — and those are very vulnerable teams playing in single-elimination games in unfamiliar environments. The Nittany Lions rank 362nd in the nation in forcing turnovers and 362nd in the nation in offensive rebounding (and they are the worst team from a Power Five conference in both categories). They also rank 361st in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Instead, Plan A is to launch 3s, and Plan B is to launch another 3. But Penn State’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency does drop by 2.4 points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. And they do not complement this approach with stout defense. Their small-ball style that facilitates their 3-point shooting has them vulnerable inside — their Big Ten opponents made 51.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 13th in the conference. In their last ten games playing away from home, the Nittany Lions ranks 173rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Now here comes a Texas A&M team that beat two teams ranked in Ken Pomeroy’s top-five teams in the nation according to his KenPom analytics. The Aggies also beat Arkansas and Auburn twice who rank in his top-29. They only made 29.7% of their shots against the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game which was a season-low for them — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning four of their last five games. Another power rankings system I use puts this team 9th in the nation in their last ten games — and they also rank them 10th in the nation in their last ten games when only evaluating play away from home. Head coach Buzz Williams’ style of play travels — this team crashes the glass, forces, turnovers, and gets to the free throw line. The Aggies rank second in the nation by pulling down 38.0% of their missed shots. They rank third in the nation in getting to the free throw line where they led the SEC by making 77.9% of their shots at the charity stripe. They rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.1% of their opponent’s possessions. Texas A&M is not a great shooting team — but they will have a size edge tonight with a Plan B, C, and D if their shots are not falling. This formula has helped them cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first NCAA Tournament appearance for this team under head coach Buzz Williams — but the seeds were planted last year when the Aggies reached the title game of the NIT to give his group deep tournament experience. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Round One NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Texas A&M Aggies (754) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (753). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (741) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (742) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (26-7) has won five games in a row after their 71-66 victory against South Alabama as a 1.5-point favorite in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament Championship Game as a 1.5-point favorite back on March 6th. Tennessee (23-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 79-71 upset loss to Missouri as a 5.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette outlasted the Jaguars to win the Sun Belt tournament despite allowing them to make 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up win.  And while the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. In their last ten games away from home, they are nailing 37.2% of their 3-pointers which could be their recipe in pulling the upset. The Volunteers are learning to live life without their starting point guard and leader in assists, Zakai Zeigler, who has not played in their last three games — and his loss was critical in their upset loss to the Tigers in the SEC tournament last week. Tennessee can fall into scoring lulls — they rank 262nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5% when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette has the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler against an undermanned Tennessee team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 8* CBB UL-Lafeyette-Tennessee CBS-TV Special with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (741) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Northern Kentucky Norse (749) and the Houston Cougars (750) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (22-12) has won five games in a row after taking the Horizon League tournament title with their 63-61 victory against Cleveland State as a 2.5-point favorite on March 7th. Houston (31-3) saw their 13-game winning streak snapped in a 75-65 upset loss to Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Houston may continue to be without their top playmaker on offense in Marcus Sasser who injured himself in the semifinals of the AAC tournament. Even if the groin injury that kept him out of the title game against the Tigers last Sunday, it is not likely he will play a ton of minutes with an important game looming on Saturday. The Cougars only made 31.2% of their shots against Memphis on Sunday — and that effort came two games after they only shot 28.1% from the field in their Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament against East Carolina. They also let the Tigers make 50.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team should tighten things up on defense — they rank second in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.4% when playing away from home. The Under is 6-1-1 in Houston’s last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Under is also 42-20-1 in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. Northern Kentucky has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total following a straight-up win. Things could get dicey for the Norse tonight when considering that they rank 315th in the nation with a 45.5% shooting percentage inside the arc when playing away from home. They have played 4 straight Unders against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Norse have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and the Cougars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court. 8* CBB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Northern Kentucky Norse (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the College of Charleston Cougars (737) and the San Diego State Aztecs (738) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: College of Charleston (31-3) has won ten straight games after their 63-58 victory against UNC-Wilmington in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Finals as a 9.5-point favorite on March 7th. San Diego State (27-6) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 62-57 victory against Utah State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars only made 40.4% of their shots to beat UNC-Wilmington last week — but that was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Under is 3-0-1 in the College of Charleston’s last 4 games after a straight-up win. This team is playing better defense as of late after holding the Seahawks to 40.7% shooting from the field. While they rank 70th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they improve to 58th in the nation in their last ten games when looking exclusively at defenses on a neutral court or the road in a hostile environment. But the Cougars rank just 106th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. San Diego State has played 20 of their last 30 games on the road Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row.

At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Howard Bison (757) and the Kansas Jayhawks (758) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Howard (22-12) rides a five-game winning streak after their 65-64 win against Norfolk State in the Championship Game of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas (27-7) lost in the Big 12 Championship Game to Texas by a 76-56 score as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks’ first order of business is to tighten things up on defense after they allowed the Longhorns to nail 50.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Jayhawks should play much better on that end of the court this afternoon as they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. But Kansas also sees their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drop by -4.5 points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home. The Jayhawks have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Howard has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. The Bison have played three straight Unders after holding Norfolk State to just 37.9% shooting which was still their worst defensive effort in their last four games.

At 12:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Furman Paladins (739) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (740) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Furman (27-7) has won six games in a row after their 88-79 victory over UT-Chattanooga to win the Southern Conference Tournament as a 3.5-point favorite on March 6th. Virginia (25-7) was on a five-game winning streak before their 59-49 loss to Duke in the Finals of the ACC Tournament as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PALADINS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia only shot 33.3% from the field against the Blue Devils on Saturday — and they are ripe to get upset this afternoon if their shots are not falling. While the Cavaliers boast a 52.9% effective field goal percentage when playing at home, that mark drops to 49.8% when they are playing away from home in hostile environments or neutral courts, ranking 149th in the nation. Virginia is 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. That game with Duke finished far below the 124-point total for that contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after playing an Under in their last game. Additionally, the Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their games this season after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game. As it is, Virginia’s style of play makes them vulnerable to upsets in one-and-done situations like this. They play at a snail's pace — they rank 343rd in the nation by averaging 19.4 seconds per possession. This results in 61.5 adjusted possessions per game in their contests this season, ranking 360th. Fewer possessions in a game allow for more short-term variance — and what if Virginia’s shots are not falling? They do not create additional scoring chances on the offensive end as they only pull down 25.2% of their missed shots, ranking 270th in the nation. And they rank 249th in the nation with a 70.1% mark at the charity stripe. Head coach Tony Bennett’s team is known for their pack-line defense that can make it tough for teams to find open looks inside — but teams that are comfortable shooting from distance can find success. The Cavaliers see 39.7% of their opponent’s shots come from behind the arc, ranking 268th in the nation. And here comes the Paladins who rank 13th in the nation by taking 46.4% of their shots from 3-point range. Head coach Bob Richey deploys a five-out system to facilitate this outside shooting — and six of his players have nailed 20 or more 3-pointers this season. Furman also leads the nation with a 59.1% shooting percentage inside the arc with this five-out scheme helpful in creating opening looks closer to the basket. The Paladins do a solid job of creating extra-scoring possessions if their shots are not falling. They led the Southern Conference by pulling down 31.1% of their missed shots. They force turnovers in 18.4% of their opponent’s possessions which is above the national average. Virginia is adept at forcing turnovers — but Furman was second in the Southern Conference by turning the ball over in just 14.7% of their possessions. They also make 74.6% of their free throws. In their last ten games away from home, the Paladins' Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranks sixth in the nation. They come into this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win while covering the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory.

FINAL TAKE: Furman has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 opening-round games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Furman Paladins (739) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (740). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (704) plus the points versus the Arizona State (703) in the First Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Nevada (22-10) limps into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak after losing to San Jose State in overtime by an 81-77 score as a 4-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament last Thursday. Arizona State (22-12) had won two in a row before their 78-59 loss to Arizona as a 7.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: The betting public seems to generally consider Nevada an unworthy recipient of an NCAA Tourney bid when compared to slighted teams like Rutgers or Oklahoma State. The Mountain West Conference is not given much respect given recent results in the Big Dance. And the Wolf Pack got upset in three straight games against non-NCAA Tournament teams coming into this game. They got upset against Wyoming before losing in overtime to UNLV in their last regular season game before getting upset against the Spartans last Thursday. Perhaps the Regression Gods were playing head coach Steve Alford’s team back from some good luck regarding close wins earlier in the season? Those things tend to even out. Contrary to the betting public, the laptops like the Mountain West Conference and this Nevada. Ken Pomeroy’s ranking system currently has the Wolf Pack as his 44th team in the nation — and the Sun Devils only rank 70th according to his metrics. Nevada has impressive wins against San Diego State and Utah State that Pomeroy ranks in his top-18 teams — and they lost in overtime on the neutral court to a Kansas State team that Pomeroy ranks 25th in the nation. There is nothing like a First Four NCAA Tournament game to quickly reverse a lazy narrative while igniting some momentum for this team after a bad start to the month. As it is, the Wolf Pack has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row to conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering two straight upset losses. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row by six points or less. Nevada is 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record — and they are not a good matchup for this Arizona State team. The Sun Devils want to create scoring opportunities in open play to take advantage of their speed and athleticism. They thrive when forcing turnovers — but the Wolf Pack rank 25th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.2 % of their possessions. Nevada also ranks fifth in the nation in opponent transition scoring opportunities. When Arizona State gets stuck in the half-court, they struggle to score points. They rank 308th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. They rank 315th in the nation with a 31.4% clip from behind the arc. They rank 274th in the nation with a 47.9% clip inside the arc — and that mark falls even further to just a 44.5% shooting percentage with their 2-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 300th in the nation. The Sun Devils are a great defensive team, especially in the half-court — but they foul too much in their zeal to create turnovers. Arizona State ranks 235th in the nation in defensive foul rate — and Nevada ranks 22nd in the nation in drawing fouls. On the line, the Wolf Pack make 79.2% of their free throws which is the sixth-best mark in the nation. Nevada will have a size advantage as well if this game becomes a slog — they rank 17th in the nation in average height with a tall starting five leading the way while Arizona State ranks 180th in average height. The Sun Devils are erratic and inconsistent. While they have high-profile wins against Arizona and Creighton, they lost to Texas Southern along with three other Pac-12 teams who did not make the Big Dance. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE:  The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court. Nevada has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Nevada Wolf Pack (704) plus the points versus the Arizona State (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (715) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (716) in the First Round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (19-14) got eliminated in the ACC Tournament in a 97-77 loss to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Cincinnati (21-12) lost in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament to Houston by a 69-48 score as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Cincinnati shot a season-low 25.5% from the field against the Cougars. They should find their shooting stroke again at home where they are making 46.9% of their shots which is resulting in 82.7 Points-Per-Game. The Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games at home. They have also played 7 of their last 9  home games Over the Total when favored by up to six points. But what was also a concern for the Bearcats against Houston was the play of their defense as they allowed them to nail 50.9% of their shots. Virginia Tech has a 2-9 record in their 11 true road games in hostile environments,— and they ranked 201st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. What drags this team down the most when playing in those road games is their interior defense as they allow their home hosts to make 54.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Hokies have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record. 8* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (715) and the Cincinnati Bearcats (716). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (716) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (715) in the First Round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (21-12) lost in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament to Houston by a 69-48 score as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday. Virginia Tech (19-14) got eliminated in the ACC Tournament in a 97-77 loss to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati shot a season-low 25.5% from the field against the Cougars. They also allowed Houston to make 50.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The NIT presents this team some measure of redemption from that disappointing performance. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They get this game at home where they have a 15-3 record with a +15.9 net point differential — and they rank 36th in the nation in their last ten games when playing on their home court. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. Virginia Tech had a 13-4 record at home — but they were only 6-10 away from home. In their 11 true road games in hostile environments, the Hokies were only 2-9 — and they ranked 201st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. What drags this team down the most when playing in those road games is their interior defense as they allow their home hosts to make 54.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Hokies have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 tournament games. 25* CBB First Round NIT Game of the Year with Cincinnati Bearcats (716) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (701) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (702) in the First Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (21-12) enters the Big Dance having lost two of their last three games after their 72-49 loss to Alabama as an 8-point underdog in the SEC Tournament on Friday. Pittsburgh (22-11) has lost three of their last four games after their 96-69 loss to Duke as a 5.5-point underdog in the ACC Tournament on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State is not a good shooting team — but their 31.0% shooting percentage against the Crimson Tide in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament was the worst shooting effort in their last 19 games. The advanced metrics do indicate that the Bulldogs should be getting a visit from the Regression Gods regarding their expected field goal percentage eventually matching up to their actual field goal percentage this season. Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, the Bulldogs are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Mississippi State plays defense at an elite level. Not only do they rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation when playing away from home in their last ten games. The Bulldogs also rank 18th in the nation by pulling down 34.4% of their missed shots on the road — and the Panthers allow their opponents to pull down 34% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 344th in the nation. Pittsburgh is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They are also 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. And while the Panthers allowed the Blue Devils to make 62.1% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of their season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their previous opponent to nail 55% or more of their shots. Pittsburgh ranks 218th in the nation in their last ten games away from home in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games in the NCAA Tournament. Mississippi  State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Mississippi State-Pittsburgh truTV Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (701) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (657) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (658) in the Finals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (25-8) has won five of their last six games after their 94-54  victory against Tulane as a 6.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament yesterday. Houston (31-2) has won 13 games in a row after their 69-48 victory against Cincinnati as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis flexed their muscles yesterday by nailing 13 of 30 (43.3%) shots from behind the arc while holding the Green Wave to just 25.8% shooting in their dominant 40-point victory. That is a great sign for them this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. The challenge gets much greater now against the number one team in the nation in this Cougars team — but the Tigers’ style of play makes them a dangerous underdog. If Memphis’ shots are not falling, they create additional scoring opportunities by crashing the offensive glass and forcing turnovers. They rank 98th in the nation by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. They rank 41st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.1% of their opponent’s possessions. Houston is a dominant rebounding team that out-rebounds their opponents by +7.3 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last nine games after 15 games in the season against teams who out-rebound their opponents by +7.0 or more RPG. Head coach Penny Hardaway’s team has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135-139.5-point range. Houston is a great team — but we are betting numbers. They played their best defensive game in their last 27 contests by holding the Bearcats to 25.5% shooting. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. And while Houston crushed East Carolina by a 60-46 score in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Friday, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. Houston does have some weaknesses that should contribute to this being a close game. They foul too much by ranking 285th in the nation in defensive foul rate — and Memphis makes 75.2% of their free throws. They only make 34.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 137th in the nation. And they are vulnerable to good rebounding teams as they allow their opponents to rebound 27.3% of their missed shots, ranking 125th in the nation. And while the Tigers hold their opponents to 40.5% shooting, Houston has failed to cover the point spread 6 in their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Houston swept the two regular-season meetings between these teams — but Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with double-revenge. The Cougars won the first game at home by a 72-64 score but the Tigers were without Kendric Davis in that game. Houston eked out a 67-65 win in the rematch last Sunday with Davis scoring 26 points for the Cougars. Memphis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 opportunities to exact some same-season revenge. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the  Memphis Tigers (657) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (623) and the Kansas Jayhawks (624) in the Finals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (25-8) is on a three-game winning streak after their 66-60 victory against TCU as a 1.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament yesterday. Kansas (27-6) has won nine of their last ten games after their 71-58 victory against Iowa State as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns held the Horned Frogs to just a 35.6% field goal percentage — it was the third game in a row that they held an opponent to no higher than 36.2%. Texas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. The Longhorns rank 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and on the road, they give up -2.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than when they are playing at home, ranking 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in hostile environments or neutral courts. But Texas sees their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drop by -9.5 points per 100 possessions when they are on the road versus their efforts at home. They only made 2 of their 14 shots from behind the arc yesterday — and they have played 41 of their last 64 games Under the Total after a game where they did not shoot better than 20% from 3-point range. The Longhorns have now played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Kansas has played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They held the Cyclones to just 40% shooting yesterday as they rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Furthermore, they give up -5.6 fewer points per 100 possessions when they are playing on the road helping them rank 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. But the Jayhawks score -3.8 points per 100 possessions less when on the road as well. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games with Texas winning the most recent matchup on March 4th by a 75-59 score. The Jayhawks have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a loss on the road by 10 or more points. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (623) and the Kansas Jayhawks (624). Best of luck for us — Frank.

 At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (621) in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (24-8) has won four of their last five games after their 81-76 victory against Central Florida as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. Tulane (20-10) has won three games in a row with their 82-76 victory against Wichita State as a 2.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis is a reliable team when playing away from home since they are not dependent on hot shooting. They pull down 31.0% of their missed shots, ranking 100 in the nation — and they should own the glass against this Green Wave team that allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their missed shots, ranking 273rd in the nation. The Tigers also create additional scoring possessions by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking second in the American Athletic Conference. Memphis ranks 14th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing for the second time in three days. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while the Tigers have won seven of their last nine games, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Memphis has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games played in March. Tulane held the Shockers to 37.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last nine games. But the Green Wave rank just 135th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They had not covered the point spread in five straight games before yesterday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. This is the first time Tulane is not the favorite in their last six games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when favored in their two previous games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after being favored in at least three games in a row before this one. The Green Wave risks being fatigued in this game as well as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing for the third or more time in seven days. Memphis sacrifices defensive rebounding for getting out on the fast break — making them vulnerable to teams who crash the offensive glass. But this is not Tulane who ranks 361st in the nation by rebounding only 18.9% of their missed shots. The Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane swept the two regular season games between these two teams — shooting 52.4% and 48.3% from the field in both games despite a 46.7% field goal percentage for the season. After upsetting the Tigers at home by a 96-89 score on January 1st, the Green Wave followed that up with a 90-89 score in Memphis as a 7-point underdog in that game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Louis Billikens (607) and the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (608) in the Semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Saint Louis (21-11) has won three of their last four games after their 82-54 win against George Mason as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. VCU (25-7) has won seven games in a row after their 71-53 win against Davidson as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Billikens nailed 55.9% of their shots against the Patriots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. Saint Louis does see their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drop by -3.6 points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Saint Louis has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. VCU shot 57.4% from the field on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their 16 contests. But the Rams rank just 164th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Furthermore, VCU has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Rams will bring an outstanding defense into this game — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

FINAL TAKE: VCU swept the two games between these two teams — following up a 73-65 victory on February 3rd with a 79-67 win at home on February 28th. Saint Louis has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Louis Billikens (607) and the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (608). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (871) and the Boise State Broncos (872) in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah State (25-7) has won six games in a row after their 91-76 victory against New Mexico as a 3.5-point victory yesterday in the quarterfinals of this tournament. Boise State (24-8) has won two of their last three games after their 87-76 victory against UNLV as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies scored 91 points despite a 48.4% field goal percentage which was the lowest shooting mark in their last three games. Utah State ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and that mark improves to 11th in the nation when they are playing away from home. The Aggies are fourth in the nation by nailing 39.5% of their 3-pointers — and they make 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. Utah State has played 6 straight Overs after scoring 90 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games after a point-spread victory. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Aggies’ last 8 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on a neutral court. Boise State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. The Broncos are a good offensive team that can keep up with the Aggies’ scoring. In their last ten games away from home, they rank 39th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make 37.0% of their 3-pointers in conference playing, ranking fourth in the Mountain West. And while the Aggies attempt 24 shots from behind the arc per game, Boise State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who attempt 21 or more shots from downtown per contest. Despite their good defensive numbers, the Broncos tend to play higher or lower-scoring games based on their opponent. They have scored 80 or more points in three of their last eight games. They have given up 74 or more points in four of their last five games despite an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that ranks 19th in the nation. Boise State has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. They have also played 26 of their last 37 games in the Mountain West Conference Tournament Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos will be looking to avenge an 86-73 loss at Utah State last Saturday — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (871) and the Boise State Broncos (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (850) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (849) in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (25-6) has won nine of their last ten games after their 74-72 victory against Wake Forest as a 6.5-point favorite in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals yesterday. Duke (24-8) is on a seven-game winning streak after their 96-69 win against Pittsburgh yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: The Blue Demons nailed a season-high 62.1% of their shots yesterday afternoon — but Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. Duke has still failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Miami has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a point spread in their previous game. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Miami has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games with the Hurricanes winning the most recent contest by an 81-59 score on February 6th. Duke has revenge on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. 20* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (850) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (849). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (823) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (824) in the Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Temple (16-15) lost two of their last three games to conclude their regular season after an 83-82 loss at Tulane as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (20-11) won three of their last four games to close out their regular season with a 97-74 victory against SMU as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Owls allowed the Green Wave to make 50.9% of their shots last Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. They should tighten things up on the defensive end of the court. Temple is 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, they are 5-1-1 ATS. Cincinnati is just 23-50-3 ATS in their last 76 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread win. Cincinnati has a 14-3 record when playing at home — but they experience the 261st biggest drop of Adjusted Net Efficiency in the nation when then going on the road on neutral courts or hostile environments.

FINAL TAKE: These two team split their two regular season games after Cincinnati avenged a 70-61 loss on New Year’s Day with an 88-83 win in overtime on their home court. The Owls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to avenge a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Temple Owls (823) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (819) and the North Texas Mean Green (820) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (24-8) has won seven games in a row with their 87-60 victory against Rice as a 14-point favorite on Thursday. North Texas (26-6) has won three in a row and 11 of their last 12 contests with their 74-46 victory against Louisiana Tech as a 9-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Center at the Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a clash of styles with North Texas playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation while UAB ranks 39th in the nation with their games averaging 70.5 adjusted possessions per game. We bet numbers — and we are getting value with the Total in the 126 range. If the Blazers can successfully amp up the pace, we will win this one comfortably. But even if the Mean Green impose their will, I still think a rock fight finds its way over the number. North Texas is an outstanding defensive team — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rises by 3.5 points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home on neutral courts or hostile environments even after they stymied the Bulldogs to just 30.4% shooting yesterday. The Mean Green has played 5 straight Overs after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after both a straight-up win and a point-spread victory. North Texas forces turnovers -- but this aggressiveness can get them in trouble as they rank 344th in the nation in foul rate. And they are a solid offensive team that ranks third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the conference and do not see much drop off when playing away from home. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. UAB ranks 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they score 80.9 Points-Per-Game when on the road. They are scoring 84.0 PPG with a 47.4% field goal percentage in their last five games. They have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and the Over is 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Over is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after a point-spread victory. The Blazers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas swept the two regular season games with neither seeing more than 124 combined points in regulation (the rematch in Denton on February 9th went to double overtime after a 62-62 score after 40 minutes — so the 82-79 final score is deceiving). But UAB has played 3 of their 4 games Over the Toal when attempting to avenge a loss on the road this season — and they have played 7 of their 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (819) and the North Texas Mean Green (820). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (769) and the Arizona Wildcats (770) in the Quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament. THE SITUATION: Stanford (14-18) won for the third time in their last four games with a 73-62 victory against Utah in a pick ‘em contest yesterday in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. Arizona (25-6) comes into this event having lost two of their last three games after an 82-73 loss at UCLA as a 5-point underdog last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal advanced despite making only 41.9% of their shots from the field against the Utes which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They are still making 47.5% of their shots in their last five games. Stanford ranks 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rise to 10th in the nation in that metric in their last ten games. Their productivity does not decline when playing away from Palo Alto either — they rank 4th in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. The Cardinal has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win by 10 or more points against a Pac-12 opponent. Furthermore, Stanford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing on the road against a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days. The Cardinal has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in March. Arizona only made 47.4% of their shots against the Bruins which was the lowest shooting percentage in their last four games. The Wildcats rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 5th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.5% with top-20 marks in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. When playing away from home, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency improves to 3rd in the nation. Arizona also plays at a blistering pace as they average 72.7 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 6th in the nation — and that mark rises to 73.6 adjusted possessions per game when playing away from home. The Wildcats have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when playing for the second time in the last seven days. They have also played 16 of their last 23 road games Over the Total against conference rivals. Furthermore, Arizona has played 9 straight games in March Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs on a neutral court as a favorite laying 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Stanford upset the Wildcats in their lone meeting this season back on February 11th as a 7.5-point home underdog  — and Arizona has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (769) and the Arizona Wildcats (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (757) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (758) in the second round of the SEC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (20-11) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 77-72 upset loss at Vanderbilt as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Florida (16-15) has won two in a row after a 79-67 victory against LSU as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi  State allowed the Gators to nail 49.1% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in 17 games going back to January 3rd at Tennessee when the Volunteers nailed 69.2% of their shots against them. The Bulldogs are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after losing their previous game — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss in their previous game. Mississippi State’s style of play translates well to neutral court environments. They play ferocious defense as they rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also have a good Plan B if their shots are not falling as they pull down 35.1% of their missed shots, ranking 18th in the nation. The Gators are vulnerable in this area as they rank 12th in the SEC by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.5% of their missed shots. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing for the second time in eight days. I do not like the Gators’ style of play when it comes to winning single-elimination tournaments. If their shots are not falling, they can get into trouble since they do not create additional scoring opportunities. They are last in the SEC by pulling down 22.9% of their missed shots. They only force turnovers in 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking seventh in the conference. And they only make 31.2% of their 3-pointers in conference play, ranking 11th in the SEC. To compound matters, Florida only ranks seventh in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. It is not surprising that the Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State got upset at home against Florida by a 61-59 score on January 21st — but the Bulldogs have then covered the point spread in 39 of their last 62 games when avenging an upset loss. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (757) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Rider Broncs (692) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (691) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: Rider (16-13) has lost two of their last three games after an 80-78 loss to Iona as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. Saint Peter’s (13-17) has won three of their last four games after a 70-52 upset win against Fairfield as a 2-point underdog yesterday in the first round of this tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Peter’s has registered two straight upset victories after they ended their regular season on Saturday by beating Siena by one point — but bettors are making a mistake if they think this team is poised to enjoy another strong March Madness run like last year when they reached the Elite Eight. Shaheen Holloway parlayed that supreme coaching job to get the Seton Hal gig — and the players left the program along with him en masse. In all, nine players transferred including all five starters from that team and the top-six scorers from the group that lost to North Carolina in the Elite Eight. So when bettors see that the Peacocks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court, the only neutral court game this new group played under new head coach Bashir Mason, formerly of Wagner, was yesterday. They held the Stags to just 37.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. Yet this team still ranks 287th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games and they finished 9th in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in that metric. A letdown is likely as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games this season after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win. Furthermore, Saint Peter’s has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 8 games played with one day or less of rest, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. The Peacocks made 48.0% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. This team can’t score — they rank 325th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Their effective field goal percentage of 44.1% ranks 359th in the nation — and they only make 29.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 354th in the nation. They led the MAAC in offensive rebounding pulling down 35.4% of their missed shots — but the Broncs rank third in the conference by holding their opponents to rebounding 27.5% of their misses. Additionally, the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 120s. Rider settled for second place in the MAAC with a 13-7 conference record after their 2-point loss to the regular season champions in the Gaels with head coach Rick Pitino’s team avenging an earlier loss to the Broncs. The Broncs should rebound tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Rider has size with three of their six regulars 6’7 or taller. They were second in the conference by making 50.6% of their shots inside the arc. They also ranked second in the MAAC by pulling down 33.4% of their missed shots — and in their last ten games away from home, they rank seventh in the nation by rebounding 36.6% of their misses. The Peacocks are vulnerable on the defensive glass with their opponents rebounding 32.3% of their missed shots, ranking 321st in the nation. The laptops indicate that Rider has value on the road — especially as of late. While one power rankings system places them 207th in the nation, that mark jumps to 155th in the nation when playing away from home in their last ten games. Those are the teams I am looking for this week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncs swept both games in the regular season after a 73-60 victory at Saint Peter’s as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday — and the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for revenge. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with Rider Broncs (692) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Privateers (306559) and the Northwestern State Demons (306560) in the Semifinals of the Southland Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-19) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 82-78 upset win against Southeast Louisiana as a 5-point underdog yesterday. Northwestern State (21-10) has won two of their last three games after an 81-64 win against Incarnate Word as a 10.5-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at The Legacy Center in Lake Charles, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Privateers advanced to the semifinals of the Southland Conference Tournament despite making only 44.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. New Orleans should shoot better tonight as they lead the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 55.0%. The Over is 46-22-1 in their last 69 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. And they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning two straight games against conference opponents. The Privateers will push the pace in this game. They rank 24th in the nation by averaging 71.4 adjusted possessions per game — and that mark rises to 72.9 adjusted possessions per game in their last ten games when playing away from home, ranking 14th in the nation. New Orleans has played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is also 25-7-1 in their last 33 games played on a neutral court — and the Privateers have played 18 of their last 23 conference tournament games Over the Total. Northwestern State has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival in their previous game. They have all played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. The Demons rank second in the Southland Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Their attack is fueled by them pulling down 33.4% of their missed shots, ranking second in the conference. They should have success on the offensive glass tonight against this Privateers team that is last in the Southland Conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 34.4% of their missed shots. Northwestern State has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court — and the over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with Northwestern State winning the first encounter on the road by an 88-65 score before New Orleans upset them on the road in the rematch on February 18th by a 68-65 score as a 10.5-point underdog. The Demons have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* CBB Southland Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Privateers (306559) and the Northwestern State Demons (306560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Merrimack Warriors (306566) minus the points versus the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306565) in the Finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Merrimack (17-16) reached the championship game of this tournament with their 71-60 victory against Sacred Heart as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Farleigh Dickinson (19-14) has won four of their last five games after a 70-50 victory against St. Francis-PA as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Merrimack is not eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament they have yet to complete four years as a Division I member which is an NCAA regulation. Given that they will be motivated to not only claim the Northeast Conference championship but also avenge two losses to the Knights in the regular season, this is the Warriors’ Super Bowl — and they get to play this contest in front of their home crowd. Merrimack has won ten games in a row — and 17 of their last 20 contests coming into this game. While they rank 282nd in the nation in one of the power ranking systems I use, they rise to 180th in their last ten contests using those metrics. That bodes well for them tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a conference opponent. The Warriors have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning five or more games in a row. This is a very good defensive team that leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.2% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 101st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that is more difficult than it first appears because the Northeast Conference is statistically the worst conference in Division I. Looking at the conference numbers is probably more illuminating for this contest — and Merrimack not only leads the way in forcing turnovers but they are first in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and second with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.9% while ranking in the top two in 3-point and 2-point defense. Admittedly, their national offensive numbers are lousy — but they rank fifth in the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and fourth in the conference when measuring efficiency on their home court. They make a very healthy 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc at home against conference opponents — so this team is fine. They have an 8-6 record at home with a +6.5 net point differential — and it is the play of their defense that stands out. They hold their guests to 38.5% shooting which results in only 56.4 Points-Per-Game. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Farleigh Dickinson has clinched their ticket to the Big Dance by reaching this game and facing a team ineligible to advance — so while I still expect them to play hard, a little bit of the edge is off since this is not a truly “do or die” situation. As it is, the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have covered two of their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering twice in their last three contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing for the third time in seven days. Farleigh Dickinson held St. Francis (PA) to 40.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But this is one of the least effective defensive teams in the nation — they rank 361st in the nation and eighth in the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Knights’ opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.2% ranks 358th in the nation — and they simply do not have the excuse of their non-conference schedule since they rank ninth in the Northeast Conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.9%. Fairleigh Dickinson relies on their offensive attack to win games — but their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 108.3 at home drops to 105.2 when they are playing away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in a tournament setting.

FINAL TAKE: The Knights won the first meeting between these teams on December 29th with a 71-63 win at home before following that up with a 78-71 upset win at Merrimack as a 2.5-point underdog on January 28th. Fairleigh Dickinson shot 53.7% from the field in that rematch including a sizzling 10 of 22 (45.4%) clip from behind the arc that is not likely sustainable tonight. The Warriors blew second-half leads in both games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge an upset loss. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Year with the Merrimack Warriors (306566) minus the points versus the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306565). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland State Vikings (871) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (872) in the Semifinals of the Horizon League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cleveland State (20-12) has won six of their last seven games after their 75-70 victory in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite on Thursday. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (21-10) has won three games in a row after their 81-70 upset victory against Wright State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland State beat Robert Morris despite them shooting 43.5% from the field — not a bad defensive number but it was the best a team has shot against the Vikings in their last eight games. Cleveland State ranks second in the Horizon League with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.4%. The Vikings have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Cleveland State remains effective when playing away from home since they work hard at generating additional scoring opportunities for themselves. They rank 17th in the nation by pulling down 35.1% of their missed shots, ranking 17th in the nation. They also rank 53rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Panthers are vulnerable in both of these areas. They allow their opponents to pull down 32.9% of their missed shots, ranking 338th in the nation. They also turn the ball over in 21.9% of their possessions, ranking 347th in the nation. Milwaukee pulled off their second-straight upset in this tournament with their victory against the Raiders. But while they have scored at least 81 points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. And while their last game finished Under the 161.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing an Under in their last contest. The Panthers benefitted from a 9-2 record in conference play in games decided by five points or less — and that suggests they are overvalued relative to their overall record. This is also a team that thrived when playing at home — but they rank 358th in the nation in their decline in their play away from home in Net Adjusted Efficiency.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee swept both games against the Vikings in their two regular-season games — and both were upset victories which should have the Vikings very fired up for this third encounter. Cleveland State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when playing with revenge. These two teams last played on February 25th with the Panthers pulling off an 81-72 victory as a 1.5-point home underdog — but the Vikings have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss on the road and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when avenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more points. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with the Cleveland State Vikings (871) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UT-Chattanooga Moccasins (867) and the Furman Paladins (868) in the Finals of the Southern Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UT-Chattanooga (18-16) has won three straight games after their 74-62 win against Wofford as a 4-point favorite yesterday. Furman (26-7) has won five games in a row after their 83-80 win in overtime against Western Carolina as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Moccasins held Wofford to just 38.7% shooting yesterday — that was the fourth time in their last five games and the sixth in their last eight contests where they held their opponent to 42.6% or lower shooting from the floor. Chattanooga ranks second in the Southern Conference when playing on the road by holding their opponents to 48.8% shooting inside the arc. The Moccasins have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against a conference opponent — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Chattanooga has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 150s. Furman only shot 39.0% from the field yesterday which was the worst shooting effort of the season for them. But while I often conclude that outlier efforts like that are aberrations — in this instance, I suspect it is nerves kicking for this Paladins team playing with the weight of expectations. This team has not made the NCAA Tournament since 1980 — and they lost the title game of the Southern Conference Tournament last year against this Chattanooga team so winning this game has been the goal for 365 days. Furman is a good defensive team that led the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. It starts with the Paladins’ half-court defense as they rank second in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.5% while ranking second in the Southern Conference in both 2-point and 3-point defense. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points per game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. Yesterday’s game flew Over the 149-point total because of overtime (the score was 72-72 after regulation time) — and Furman has played 8 straight road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Paladins have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Furman swept the two games between these teams in the regular season with the last meeting being on February 1st with the Paladins winning by a 79-58 score. The Moccasins have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. UT-Chattanooga has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and Furman has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court. 25* CBB Southern Conference Tournament Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the UT-Chattanooga Moccasins (867) and the Furman Paladins (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls  (781) plus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (782). THE SITUATION: South Florida (14-16) has won three games in a row after a 72-56 win against Tulsa as a 14-point favorite on Wednesday. Wichita State (15-14) has lost two of their last three games after an 83-66 loss at Houston as a 17.5-point underdog on  Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: South Florida defeated the Golden Hurricane despite only shooting 42.4% from the field. The Bulls have won four of their last five games with them shooting 48.9% from the field in those contests and scoring +4.2 Points-Per-Game above their season average. They have also held their last five opponents to just 40.9% shooting. South Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 34 of their last 52 games on the road after beating a conference rival in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a point spread cover in their last game. On the road, the Bulls are outscoring their opponents by +0.1 PPG despite a 5-7 record. They are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games on the road with nine-point spread covers in their last ten games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. South Florida is second in the American Athletic Conference by pulling down 33.2% of their missed shots. The Shockers are vulnerable in this department as they rank sixth in the AAC by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 29.2% of their missed shots. Wichita State lost by 17 points to the Cougars despite making 64.9% of their shots to waste their best shooting effort of the season. The Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a point spread cover. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. They return home where they are 7-9 this season. Wichita State is 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games at home after failing to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 home games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Shockers are not a good defensive team — and they are regressing in that area. They rank ninth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to score 79.2 PPG which is +10.3 PPG above their season average. Their last five opponents have made 46.9% of their shots despite their 40.8 defensive field goal percentage for the season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: South Florida may be without their seven-footer Russel Tchewa who missed the last game with an undisclosed ailment. This situation still warrants an investment with the market adjusting by making the Bulls a bigger underdog. Wichita State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 70-66 score as a 2-point road underdog — and the Bulls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road when avenging a loss. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the South Florida Bulls  (781) plus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (782). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (757) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (758) in the Finals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Southeast Missouri State (18-16) has won three games in a row after their 65-58 upset victory against Morehead State as a 4.5-point underdog yesterday. Tennessee Tech (16-16) also advanced in their semifinals contest in this tournament with their 78-63 upset victory against Tennessee-Martin as a 1.5-point underdog. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Southeast Missouri is tough to beat in these neutral court games under third-year head coach Brad Korn. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court including all five of their games this season. Korn’s style of play for his team translates into these situations. First, Southeast Missouri plays at a blistering pace — they rank sixth in the nation with 73.0 adjusted possessions per game. Second, they pressure the basketball to force turnovers — they lead the Ohio Valley Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.4% of their opponent’s possessions. The Redhawks are also a reliable shooting team near the basket as they lead the conference by making 54.7% of their shots inside the arc — and this percentage actually improves when they are playing away from home where they are making 55.4% of their 2-pointers. Southeast Missouri is rolling now — and they have covered the points spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing without a day of rest. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140s, Southeast Missouri State has covered the point spread in 12 of these contests. Tennessee Tech may be primed for a letdown after winning and covering the point spread in three straight games. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two or more games in a row after conference rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in  6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Tennessee Tech has won and covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Golden Eagles force turnovers as well — but they are not as effective at it as the Redhawks who also do a better job of protecting the basketball. Tennessee Tech then has a Plan B problem. They do not create additional scoring opportunities as they are last in the conference by pulling down 22.7% of their missed shots. They do shoot plenty of 3s — and they nail an impressive 40.4% of these shots when playing at home, ranking 21st in the nation. But when playing away from home, their 3-point shooting plummets to just a 34.6% clip, ranking 101st in the nation. They only made 10 of their 30 (33%) shots from behind the arc yesterday. And while Southeast Missouri State at least makes their 2s,  the Golden Eagles rank 10th in the Ohio Valley by making just 44.4% of their shots inside the arc. Tennessee Tech has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court as a favorite of up to three points or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with the Golden Eagles winning the most recent contest by an 82-80 score on their home court on February 24th — but Southeast Missouri State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year is with the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (757) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Semifinals of the Northeast Conference Tournament between the St. Francis-PA Red Flash (306527) and the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306528). THE SITUATION: St. Francis-PA (13-17) has won four of their last five games after their 83-69 win against Central Connecticut State as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Farleigh Dickinson (18-14) has won three of their last four games with their 83-75 win against St. Francis-NY as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Lots of Overs this week — I’m just following the numbers. The data points to the Over for this one — even before I then realize that these two teams are top-two statistical offenses in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the Northeast Conference while registering two of the worst defensive metrics in the nation. St. Francis-PA ranks 356th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. And with their win against Central Connecticut State finishing Over, they have then played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their previous game. After playing their last three games on the road, they go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing three or more games in a row at home. The Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games on the road — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The St. Francis-PA offense is bolstered by their 3-point shooting as they rank 38th in the nation by nailing 36.9% of their shots from behind the arc. Now they play a Knights team ranking 344th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Farleigh Dickinson ranks 362nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they also lead the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Knights have scored 169 points in their last two games — and they have palled 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last two games. They stay at home where the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also played 19 of their last 25 games at home when it is just their second game in seven days.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with St. Francis-PA winning the most recent game by an 82-72 score on February 23rd — and Farleigh Dickinson has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Semifinals of the Northeast Conference Tournament between the St. Francis-PA Red Flash (306527) and the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Carolina Upstate Spartans (306521) and the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306422) in the Semifinals of the Big South Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: USC-Upstate (16-14) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 77-76 upset win against Gardner-Webb as a 4-point underdog yesterday. UNC-Asheville (25-7) joined them in the semifinals of this tournament with their 75-66 win against Charleston Southern as a 9-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans are a good shooting team — they rank second in the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 52.7% based on the strength of their interior shooting. USC-Upstate ranks second in the conference by making 53.6% of their shots inside the arc. The Spartans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. USC-Upstate is playing their best basketball of the season now with three straight victories along with seven wins in their last eight games. They have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning two in a row against conference rivals — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Betting Unders for these early tip-offs on neutral courts has been a fashionable play in the past — but we bet numbers rather than being a zombie simply for the situation. This Total is dropping — giving us more value on the Over. While these early tips can see groggy teams struggling to shoot — the Spartans bring energy by forcing turnovers. They rank 58th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark improves to a 21.1% defensive turnover clip against conference opponents. They forced 17 turnovers representing 23.6% of Gardner-Webb’s possessions yesterday — and now the Bulldogs may be vulnerable in this area. UNC-Asheville ranks 313th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.3% of their possessions — and they turn it over in 20.7% of their conference possessions. Forcing turnovers tends to create easier scoring opportunities in transition which is reinforced by the Spartans' effective 2-point shooting. USC-Upstate has played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have played 28 of their last 43 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games played on a neutral court. UNC-Asheville only made 35.8% of their shots yesterday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 22 games. The Bulldogs should shoot much better today after that outlier effort. They rank 32nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. They rank seventh in the nation with a 39.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and that number improves to 40.6% in conference play. UNC-Asheville has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 24-10-1 in their last 35 games after a point spread loss. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning five or more games in a row. The Bulldogs are going to get their share of points at the free throw line — they rank 12th in the nation in free throw rate. The downside to USC-Upstate’s pressure on the basketball is that they foul too much — they rank 354th in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The charity strip should help this game finish Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings after USC-Upstate upset the Bulldogs by a 76-70 score as a 3-point home underdog on February  4th. UNC-Asheville has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road including three of their four opportunities this season. 25* CBB Big South Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the South Carolina Upstate Spartans (306521) and the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306422). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (867) and the Colorado State Rams (868). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (21-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 94-80 win against Fresno State as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Colorado State (13-17) has lost two of their last three games after their 63-46 loss at San Jose State as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lobos rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least 90 points. The Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival. New Mexico has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight contests. They go back on the road where they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments boosted by their 39.7% shooting percentage from behind the arc, ranking 9th in the nation. The Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games on the road. The Lobos rank 306th in the nation in defensive foul rate when playing on the road — and the Rams make 76.1% of their free throws on their home court. Colorado State held the Spartans to just 38.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But the Rams only shot 36.5% from the field in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 24 contests. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game where they did not score more than 50 points. And while they only scored 22 points in the first half of that game, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half in their last game. The Over is also 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a loss by 10 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 13 games after a point-spread loss, the Over is 10-2-1. While that game with San Jose State finished far below the 136.5-point total, Colorado State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last contest. The Rams should approach their 80.4 Points-Per-Game scoring average when playing at home tonight. They rank 13th in the nation with a 56.4% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Lobos allow their opponents to convert on 50.7% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 205th in the nation — and their conference opponents have converted on 53.6% of their 2-pointers against them. Colored State ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court — and they rank 17th in the nation by making 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc at home. The Rams have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at home — and they have 5 straight Overs at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Colorado State has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: New Mexico won the first meeting between these two teams by an 88-69 score on December 28th — and the Rams have played all 3 of their games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road this season. The Lobos have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total listed in the 150s. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (867) and the Colorado State Rams (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (841) and the Ball State Cardinals (842). THE SITUATION: Toledo (24-6) rides a 14-game winning streak after a 99-65 victory as a 15-point favorite on Tuesday. Ball State (20-10) has lost three of their last four games after an 87-83 loss at Akron as a 9-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rockets are nailing 54.4% of their shots in their last five games which helps them generate 92.8 Points-Per-Game in those contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. Toledo ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they rank 275th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they are scoring 81.5 PPG but allowing 77.7 PPG. The Rockets rank 2nd in the nation by making 40.1% of their shots — and that mark drops only slightly to a 39.0% clip when playing on the road, ranking 14th best in the nation. Toledo has played 14 of their last 20 road games Over the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Ball State has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 29 of their last 42 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the third time in seven days. Ball State ranks 6th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and they rank 23rd in the nation by making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc. When playing at home, they make 48.4% of their shots which generates 80.4 PPG. They have played 5 straight Overs at home — and they have played 22 of their last 28 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 19 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 150s. But the Cardinals have given up 77.4 PPG in their last five games — and now they host this Rockets’ team that is so good with their 3-point shooting having allowed their guests to nail 38.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 349th in the nation. Ball State has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 90-83 score on January 3rd — and Toledo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (841) and the Ball State Cardinals (842). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (306591) and the Kennesaw State Owls (306592) in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Lipscomb (20-12) has won four straight games and seven of their last nine after their 83-70 win against Stetson on Tuesday. Kennesaw State (24-8) has won three in a row and six of their last seven after their 67-66 victory against Queens-University of Charlotte as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. The Owls are the host team at their Convocation Center in Kennesaw, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Lipscomb made 47.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four contests. The Bisons rank 34th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.0% — and they are third in the Atlantic Sun with a 37.6% shooting clip from behind the arc, ranking third in the conference. Lipscomb has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread win — and they have played 7 straight overs when playing for the second time in the last three days. The Bisons are playing at a quicker pace than they were earlier in the season. While they are averaging 69.6 adjusted possessions per game, that mark has risen to 71.1 adjusted possessions per game in their last ten contests, ranking 31st in the nation. They are making 49.4% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 85.4 Points-Per-Game, a +8.8 PPG bump over their season average. But they are also allowing their opponents to make 45.2% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in 79.6 PPG. On the road, the Bisons have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher on their home court. They have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 145-149.5-point range. Kennesaw State has seen the Over go 20-6-1 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after a win at home against an Atlantic Sun rival. They have also played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Owls will be vulnerable against the Bisons' 3-point shooting — they rank 10th in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc. But Kennesaw State can score — they rank 27th in the nation by making 57.2% of their shots inside the arc and rank 26th in getting to the free-throw line. On their home court, the Owls are making 48.6% of their shots which is generating 81.4 PPG which is +6.0 PPG above their season average. The Over is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games on their home court — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Over the Total when favored or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Kennesaw State won the first meeting between these two teams by an 85-72 score at home as a 4-point favorite — and they have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (306591) and the Kennesaw State Owls (306592). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Louisiana Lions (306551) and the Houston Christian Huskies (306552). THE SITUATION: SE Louisiana (17-13) has won three games in a row after a 78-75 win in overtime as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Houston Christian (10-20) had won two games in a row before a 68-64 loss at Nicholls State as an 11-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions only scored 22 points in the first half on Saturday while ending the game with a 42.3% shooting percentage which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They had nailed at least 50% of their shots in their previous three games — and they are still making 49.3% of their shots in their last five contests which is resulting in 78.4 Points-Per-Game. SE Louisiana has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home. The Over is 38-15-1 in their last 54 games after a point-spread win. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals. The Lions are not a good defensive team — they rank 317th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their home hosts to 46.7% shooting when playing on the road which is resulting in them giving up 77.2 PPG. The Over is 19-7-1 in their last 27 road games — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record a home. Furthermore, SE Louisiana has played 12 of their last 16 games in conference play Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total when favored. Houston Christian only made 35.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contest. The Huskies have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Houston Christian returns home where they are making 51.3% of their shots which is generating 88.1 PPG, a +9.8 PPPG bump over their season average. They are 30th in the nation by making 39.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and now they host a Lions team that allows Southland Conference opponents to make a whopping 41.5% of their shots from downtown. But Houston Christian does not play a lick of defense — they rank dead last in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. They allow their opponents to make 37.3% of their 3-pointers and 58.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 336th and 306th in the nation respectively. They don’t force turnovers — and they rank 306th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.4% of their missed shots. What the Huskies cannot do on defense, they make up for by playing at a fast pace. Their opponents average just 16.4 seconds per possession, the third fastest rate in the nation — and the 70.8 adjusted possessions per game in their contests is the 36th most in the nation. Houston Christian allows their guests to make 48.3% of their shots on their home court which is producing 88.1 PPG. The Over is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games at home — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court. They have also played 22 of their last 28 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have played 5 straight Overs when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Southeast Louisiana won the first meeting between these two teams by a 71-59 score as a 10-point home favorite on January 5th — but Houston Christian has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Southland Conference Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Louisiana Lions (306551) and the Houston Christian Huskies (306552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (643) and the Kansas Jayhawks (644). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (16-13) had their four-game winning streak snapped in an 83-82 upset loss against TCU as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Kansas (24-5) has won six straight games after their 76-74 win against West Virginia as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Raiders lost to the Horned Frogs despite nailing 50.6% of their shots. They made 60.7% of their shots in their previous game at Oklahoma last Tuesday — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field. Texas Tech is shooting 48.9% in their last five games. Their game with TCU went way Over the 144-point Total in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their previous contest. The Over is also 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a point spread loss — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Red Raiders’ play on defense is of concern as they rank 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They allow their conference opponents to make 52.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 9th in the Big 12 — and the Jayhawks rank 2nd in the conference with a 51.5% shooting percentage inside the arc. Texas Tech also ranks 297th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.6% of their missed shots. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Red Raiders’ last 5 games on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. Kansas has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two straight games against conference rivals. After naming 54.9% of their shots against the Mountaineers, they are shooting 50.5% from the field in their last five games. Head coach Bill Self has his team playing at a faster pace as well. They are averaging 69.6 adjusted possessions per game but in their last ten contests, they are averaging 71.3 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 33rd in the nation. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home where they are making 48.3% of their shots which is generating 79.6 Points-Per-Game. The Jayhawks have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and the Over is 25-12-1 in their last 38 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Kansas has also played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Dajaun Harris got injured on Saturday but he is listed as probable to play tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas won the first meeting between these two teams on January 3rd by a 75-72 score in Lubbock — and the Red Raiders have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Texas Tech-Kansas ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (643) and the Kansas Jayhawks (644). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Bellarmine Knights (306519) plus the points versus the North Florida Ospreys (306520) in the first round of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Bellarmine (14-17) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 79-67 loss at North Florida as a 5-point underdog on Friday. North Florida (14-16) has won two in a row and six of their last eight with the victory. This game is being played on a neutral court at Liberty Arena in Lynchburg, Virginia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Bellarmine should respond with a strong effort with this quick turnaround and opportunity for revenge from their loss on Friday. The Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a point spread loss. Bellarmine stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road against Atlantic Sun rivals. The Knights are a solid team when playing away from home because of their ability to make shots inside the perimeter — they rank 63rd in the nation by making 53.2% of their 2-pointers. Bellarmine has only covered the point spread once in their last four games — but they then have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. North Florida loves to shoot from 3-point land — the “Birds of Trey”  rank 7th in the nation by attempting 47.6% of their field goal attempts from behind the arc. In their win on Friday, they nailed 12 of their 24 shots (50%) from 3-point range despite carrying a 32.3% mark from 3-point range when playing at home. That hot shooting is not likely to continue tonight with the pressure on. As it is, the Ospreys rank 116th in the nation with a 33.4% shooting percentage away from home from deep — and they rank only 10th in the Atlantic Sun with a 34.0% mark from behind the arc on the road in conference play. Bellarmine ranks 3rd in the Atlantic Sun by holding their opponents to just 34.3% shooting from 3-point range. North Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after nailing 50% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Ospreys have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. Additionally, North Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row after conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning four or five their last five games. The Ospreys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Bellarmine head coach Scott Davenport is a gem who oversaw this team finishing no worse than second place in the Atlantic Sun in their first two seasons in Division I before settling for a 9-9 conference record this year. The Knights won the conference tournament last year (but did not get a bid to the Big Dance with the regular season champion earning the automatic bid). Bellarmine returned two starters and 56.2% of the minutes from that team — and it has been senior Garrett Tipton, a reserve who averaged under 15 minutes per game last year, who has stepped in as their best player this season. This is a battle-tested team that played UCLA, Kentucky, and Duke in the non-conference part of their schedule to prepare for this moment. The Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to avenge a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Underdog of the Year with the Bellarmine Knights (306519) plus the points versus the North Florida Ospreys (306520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (821) plus the points versus the Quinnipiac Bobcats (822). THE SITUATION: Manhattan (10-16) has lost two of their last three games after an 81-58 upset loss at home to Marist as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Quinnipiac (19-9) has won two in a row after their 90-88 victory in double-overtime against Rider as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Manhattan should rebound from their disastrous effort on Friday. They only made 32.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting of their season. They also allowed the Red Foxes to shoot 51.8% from the field which was the worst defensive performance in their last seven games. But the Jaspers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Manhattan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in three days — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing for just the second time in the last seven days (their previous game was last Sunday). The Jaspars lead the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponents' possessions — and the Bobcats are vulnerable in this area as they rank 203rd in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions. This ability to create extra scoring possessions helps them play better away from home — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Manhattan has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Quinnipiac has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after beating two straight conference opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after allowing 85 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when playing for just the second time in eight days. While they are shooting 43.1% from the field this season, that mark has dropped to a 40.7% clip in their last five games. Furthermore, their last five opponents have made 46.1% of their shots against them as compared to their 41.4% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. They stay at home where they are 9-3 this season but only outscoring their guests by +7.0 Points-Per-Game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They are just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Furthermore, Quinnipiac has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%.

FINAL TAKE: Manhattan will be looking to avenge an 84-65 loss at home to Quinnipiac as a 5-point underdog on January 1st — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 opportunities for revenge. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year is with the Manhattan Jaspers (821) plus the points versus the Quinnipiac Bobcats (822). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (763) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (764). THE SITUATION: UAB (21-8) has won four in a row and eight of their last nine contests after their 85-57 win against Rice as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. Western Kentucky (15-13) won for the fourth time in their last six games with a 76-66 victory against Louisiana Tech as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blazers held the Owls to host 32.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 28 games. The Over is 27-9-1 in their last 37 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. The Over is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Now they go on the road where they are scoring 80.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. Western Kentucky has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And while their game with the Bulldogs two days ago finished Under the 143.5-point total, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They stay at home where they are second in Conference USA by nailing 37.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is helping them score 78.5 PPG. The Hilltoppers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: UAB will have revenge on their mind after losing to Western Kentucky by an 80-78 score as a 10.5-point home favorite on January 11th. The Blazers should score more points in this rematch. They rank 7th in the nation by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots. The Hilltoppers rank 271st in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.3% of their missed shots. UAB also nails 37.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 22nd in the nation. Western Kentucky ranks 327th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.0% of their shots from 3-point range, and that mark rises to a 38.4% clip when playing at home against Conference USA rivals. The Blazers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging a loss. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (763) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between The Citadel Bulldogs (621) and the Mercer Bears (622). THE SITUATION: The Citadel (10-20) has lost two in a row and eight of their last nine contests with their 78-70 loss at East Tennessee State as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Mercer (12-18) has lost five games in a row after their 70-67 loss at Furman as a 13-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Citadel allowed the Moccasins to nail 50.0% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Bulldogs should tighten things up on the defensive end of the court in their final regular season game before the Southern Conference Tournament — they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference rival — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. The Citadel’s bigger problems are with making baskets as they rank 287th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 43.3% of their shots on the road — and they don’t crash the offensive glass either as they rank 307th in the nation by pulling down only 20.6% of their missed shots. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total in February. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Mercer has seen the Under go 38-17-2 in their last 57 games after losing their previous game — and they have played ten of their last fourteen games Under the Total after losing their previous game. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing their previous game by six points or less. The Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a point-spread loss. And in their last 17 games when playing their second game in seven days, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Mercer also struggles to make baskets as they rank 10th in the Southern Conference and 288th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Bears are a solid defensive team that holds their guests to just 42.4% shooting when playing at home which results in them scoring 68.2 Points-Per-Game. The Under is 14-4-2 in their last 20 games on their home court — and the Under is 36-16-2 in Mercer’s last 54 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bears have also played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Mercer won the first meeting between these two teams by a 74-65 score as a 2-point favorite on January 28th — and The Citadel has played 17 of their last 20 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between The Citadel Bulldogs (621) and the Mercer Bears (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Siena Saints (871) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (872). THE SITUATION: Siena (17-10) was on a two-game winning streak before their 66-63 upset loss to Quinnipiac as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday. Rider (14-11) has lost two games in a row after their 90-88 loss at Quinnipiac as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: Siena made only 37.9% of their shots last Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Saints have bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss against a conference rival. Siena ranks second in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they go back on the road where they have a 9-6 record with a +2.8 net point differential. The Saints have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 road games as an underdog of three points or less or as a pick ‘em. Siena has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more points. The Broncs return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored or in a pick ‘em contest.

FINAL TAKE: Siena has registered impressive wins against Seton Hall and Iona this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Siena Saints (871) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Carolina Catamounts (675) plus the points versus the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (676). THE SITUATION: Western Carolina (16-13) has won four of their last five games after a 71-68 upset win at Mercer as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. UNC-Greensboro (19-10) has won five of their last six games after their 93-76 victory at UT-Chattanooga as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CATAMOUNTS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Carolina should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory as an underdog getting six or more points. They stay on the road where they are 8-8 with a net point differential of just -3.6 Points-Per-Game. The Catamounts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 130s. Western Carolina should match up well against the Spartans who thrive in creating additional scoring opportunities. UNC-Greensboro leads the Southern Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions and they are second in the conference by pulling down 30.7% of their missed shots on offense. But Western Carolina ranks 38th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.0% of their possessions — and that mark lowers to a 14.6% clip in conference play. The Catamounts lead the Southern Conference by limiting those opponents to rebounding just 24.7% of their missed shots. The Spartans nailed 55.9% of their shots on Saturday in their win against the Moccasins which was the best shooting effort in their last 17 games. But UNC-Greensboro has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring 90 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a win on the road where they scored 85 or more points. The Spartans return home where they have a 10-3 record — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UNC-Greensboro crushed Western Carolina earlier this season on December 29th by a 72-47 score — but they only pulled down 29.0% of their missed shots and forced turnovers in 14.9% of the Catamounts’ possessions which was below their season averages in both categories. That 25-point loss can be attributed to Western Carolina shooting just 20% from the field which was the worst shooting effort of their season (by far). The Catamounts have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Western Carolina Catamounts (675) plus the points versus the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Hoosiers (641) and the Michigan State Spartans (642). THE SITUATION: Indiana (19-8) has lost four of their last five games after a 71-68 victory against Illinois as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Michigan State (16-10) had their two-game winning streak end with an 84-72 loss at Michigan as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hoosiers have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win. Indiana ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home at Assembly Hall — but they drop massively to ranking 110th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Their collapse in offensive efficiency from those home/road splits ranks 351st in the nation in terms of discrepancy. But head coach Mike Woodson does have his team play strong half-court defense away from home. The Hoosiers lead the Big Ten with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.3% when playing on the road. And while Indiana ranks 46th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark has improved to 30th in the nation in their last ten games. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Hoosiers’ last 5 games on the road — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games on the road against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Michigan State shot 47.5% from the field in their loss to the Wolverines on Saturday which was the best shooting mark in their last four games — but they allowed Michigan to nail 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Spartans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Michigan State returns home to the Breslin Center where they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while holding their guests to 38.5% shooting which results in only 59.7 Points-Per-Game. Sparty has played 6 straight Unders when playing on their home court. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State looks to avenge an 82-69 loss at Indiana on January 22nd. The Spartans have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 10* CBB Indiana-Michigan State ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Hoosiers (641) and the Michigan State Spartans (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (306515) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306516). THE SITUATION: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (10-17) has lost five games in a row after their 82-71 loss at Prairie View A&M as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Texas Southern (10-17) has won three of their last four games after an 80-62 win against Mississippi Valley State as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a solid technical play in the Southwest Athletic Conference tonight. The Golden Lions have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss to SWAC rival. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a point-spread loss. Additionally, Arkansas-Pine Bluff has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total when playing their second game in seven days. They stay on the road where they are giving up 75.9 Points-Per-Game, up +5.9 Points-Per-Game above their season average. They have played 12 of their last 19 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5-point range. They have also played 5 straight Overs against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Texas Southern has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have also played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after a point-spread win. And while their win against Mississippi Valley State finished Over the 135.5-point total, they have then played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. On their home court, the Tigers are scoring 76.3 PPG which is +7.0 PPG above their season average. They have played 20 of their last 28 games at home Over the Total including eight of these last nine situations. They have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Texas Southern will be looking to avenge a 70-66 upset loss to Arkansas-Pine Bluff on January 7th — and the Tigers have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with  Over the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (306515) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (847) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (848). THE SITUATION: Maryland (18-8) has won six of their last seven games after their 68-54 win against Purdue as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Nebraska (13-14) has won three of their last four games after an 82-72 upset win at Rutgers as a 14-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. Maryland ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that mark improves to 20th in the nation when they are playing on the road in hostile environments. The Terrapins have played 9 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 7 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning percentage at home of 60% or higher. Additionally, Maryland has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. Nebraska has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a Big Ten rival — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And while the Cornhuskers have played three straight Overs, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Nebraska returns home where they are holding their opponents to 39.8% shooting — and they rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games on their home court. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games at home — and the Cornhuskers have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. Furthermore, Nebraska has played 5 of their last 7 home games as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: Nebraska will be looking to avenge an 82-63 loss at Maryland against the Terrapins as an 11.5-point underdog on January 28th — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. 10* CBB Maryland-Nebraska FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (847) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Lafayette Leopards (306605) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (306606). THE SITUATION: Lafayette (9-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-70 upset loss at Loyola-Maryland as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday. Army (14-14) has lost three of their last four games after a 93-86 loss at Colgate as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LEOPARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Lafayette allows the Greyhounds to make 53.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Leopards lead the Patriot League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they should play better on that end of the court today. While that game with Loyola-Maryland flew Over the 124-point Total, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. Lafayette should bounce back today as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less in their last contest. And while the Leopards have lost four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. Lafayette usually dictates the pace of play in their games as they rank 356th in the nation by averaging 20.0 seconds per possession. The 63.2 adjusted possessions per game in Patriot League play is the lowest mark in the conference. The Leopards also lead the Patriot League by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Black Knights are vulnerable in this area. Army is sixth in the conference by turning the ball over in 20.1% of their possessions. Lafayette has a 3-4 record in the Patriot League when playing on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 road games this season. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Additionally, the Leopards have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread loss. Army nailed 56.9% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last nine contests. But they also allowed Colgate to shoot 55.0% from the field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 9 games after a game where 175 or more combined points were scored, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. Now after playing the last two games on the road where they were the underdog, the Black Knights return home where their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drops from ranking 167th on the season overall to just 229th in the nation on their home court. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after being the underdog in their previous two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Army is an elite defensive rebounding team that leads the Patriot League by holding their opponents to pulling down just 22.8% of their missed shots — and they rank seventh in the nation in defensive rebounding when playing at home. But alas, Lafayette sacrifices crashing the offensive glass for getting back on defense — so this will not be a big edge for the Black Knights today. Army allows their opponents to make 45.3% of their shots — and their last five opponents are making 47.0% of their shots against them which is resulting in them allowing 75.0 Points-Per-Game, up 4.3 net PPG above their season average. The Black Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Lafayette will be looking to avenge an 82-65 upset loss at home to Army on January 2nd as a 1.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to avenge a loss at home. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Year with the Lafayette Leopards (306605) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (306606). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Abilene Christian Wildcats (893) and the Grand Canyon Anteaters (894). THE SITUATION: Abilene Christian (13-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 77-62 loss to San Houston State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. Grand Canyon (16-10) has lost two games in a row after their 77-76 upset loss to the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley as a 12-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats only made 38.9% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Abilene Christian has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. The Wildcats have played six straight Overs — but not only have they then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game but they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Abilene Christian allowed Sam Houston State to nail 55.1% of their shots in the loss last week — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing their last opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field including three of their four games Over the Total this season under those circumstances. The Wildcats are second-to-last in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are last in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.3%. Furthermore, they are last in the WAC in putting their conference opponents on the free throw line — and Grand Canyon leads the conference by making 74.7% of their shots in conference play. Abilene Christian goes back on the road where they allow their home hosts to nail 50.4% of their shots which results in 77.1 Points-Per-Game which is 7.5 PPG above their season average.  The Wildcats have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total on the road after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total in February. Grand Canyon has played 8 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a loss at home to a WAC rival. Furthermore, the Over is 35-16-4 in the Anteaters’ last 55 games after a point spread loss including 12 Overs in the last 15 games after not covering the point spread. And while that game finished above the 147.5-point total for that game, they have then played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their previous game. Grand Canyon held UT Rio Grande Valley to just 37.7% shooting after holding Seattle to 36.4% shooting — but those were both their top two defensive efforts in their previous nine games. They stay at home where they are last in the WAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. nit the Anteaters make 47.5% of their shots at home which generates 80.3 PPG. In conference play, they sport a 56.5% effective field goal percentage on their home court, ranking second in the WAC — and they are nailing 43.1% of their shots from behind the arc at home in conference play. They have played 19 of their last 26 games at home Over the Total including eleven of their last thirteen home games. The Over is also 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Grand Canyon has also played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Abilene Christian will be looking to avenge a 75-73 loss at home to Grand Canyon as a 2.5-point underdog on January 26th. The Anteaters have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Abilene Christian Wildcats (893) and the Grand Canyon Anteaters (894). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (806) plus the points versus the Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles (805). THE SITUATION: Little Rock (8-19) has lost three of their last four games after their 84-61 loss at UT-Martin as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. Southern Indiana (14-13) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 74-64 win against Lindenwood as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: Little Rock shot only 36.4% from the field on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games. They only made 2 of their 19 (10.5%) of their shots from behind the arc in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after failing to make 20% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Trojans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They return home where they have a 6-4 record with a +5.2 net point differential. Little Rock is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games as an underdog of six points or less or as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last six games against teams with a winning record, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Southern Indiana held Lindenwood to just 40.4% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. They go back on the road where they are 4-10 this season — and they rank 9th in the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Screaming Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Southern Indiana has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Furthermore, the Screaming Eagles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Little Rock will be looking to avenge a 74-67 loss at Southern Indiana on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (806) plus the points versus the Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles (805). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (306551) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306552). THE SITUATION: Army (14-13) has lost two of their last three games after their 70-53 loss at Navy as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Colgate (19-8) has won two in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests after their 76-56 win at Bucknell as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army only made 30.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort of the season. The Black Knights should shoot better tonight as they rank 30th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.0%. They are facing a Raiders team that ranks 261st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. Army has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 60 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road where they did not score more than 60 points. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Army is outstanding in defending their defensive glass as well — they rank 19th in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.6% of their missed shots. The Black Knights stay on the road where they are only getting outscored by -0.7 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Colgate made 7 of their 14 shots from behind the arc on Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after nailing 50% or more of their shots from 3-point range in their last contest. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Colgate crushed Lehigh by an 81-53 score in their previous contest — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row by 10 or more points. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Army will be looking to avenge a 77-75 loss at home to Colgate as a 7.5 point underdog on January 9th — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Army Black Knights (306551) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (632) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (631). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (16-9) has lost two games in a row after their 69-60 loss at Illinois as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Nebraska (12-14) has won two of their last three contests after their 73-63 upset win against Wisconsin in overtime as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Rutgers only made 34.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst-shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed the Fighting Illini to make 48.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 18 contests. Rutgers ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they should play better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 13-2 with a net point differential of +21.1 net Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 34.7% shooting which results in 52.8 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home when playing for just the second time in the last seven days. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. Nebraska held the Badgers to just 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven contests. But the Cornhuskers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after upsetting their last opponent by double-digits as a home underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after upsetting a Big Ten rival as a home dog. Additionally, Nebraska has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they are just 3-11 with a net point differential of -10.7 net PPG. They only score 62.4 PPG on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 130s. The Cornhuskers are too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 19.0% of their possessions, ranking 227th in the nation. Now they face a Scarlet Knights team that ranks 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.7% of their opponent’s possessions.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t love laying 13-14 points — but we are dealing with an angry Rutgers team that ranks number one in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home according to one of the metrics systems I follow. Those same analytics rank the Cornhuskers at 344th in the nation when playing away from home. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when laying 12.5 or more points. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (632) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (631). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (879) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (880). THE SITUATION: Texas (20-5) has won three of their last four games after their 94-60 win against West Virginia as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Texas Tech (13-12) snapped a two-game losing streak after their 71-63 victory against Kansas State as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns held the Mountaineers to just 35.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last ten games. The Over is 18-7-1 in Texas’ last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win against a Big 12 rival. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win at home where they scored 85 or more points. The Longhorns rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they make 55.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 27th in the nation. The Red Raiders are vulnerable in defending the interior as they rank 9th in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 53.4% of their 2-pointers. Texas goes back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. They have also played 17 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Texas Tech held the Wildcats to 35.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 20 games. The Red Raiders have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They stay at home where they are making 48.1% of their shots and generating 77.9 Points-Per-Game. Texas Tech should be able to score their share of points against the Longhorns. They rank 30th in the nation by making 57.4% of their shots inside the arc — and Texas is 185th in the country by allowing their opponents to make 52.2% of their 2-point shots when playing on the road. The Red Raiders also rank 24th in the nation at home in getting to the free throw line — and the Longhorns rank 307th in the country when playing on the road in defensive free throw rate percentage. Texas Tech has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total when playing on the road against a team with a winning percentage of 60% at home. Furthermore, the Over is 5-2-1 in the Red Raiders’ last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech looks to avenge a 72-70 loss at Texas as an 8-point underdog on January 14th — and the Red Raiders have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Texas-Texas Tech ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (879) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (880). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (829) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (830). THE SITUATION: Temple (14-11) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 72-71 upset loss at SMU as a 1.5-point favorite. Memphis (18-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 99-81 win at South Florida as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Temple should rebound with a good effort this afternoon as they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not covering the point spread in their last two contests. The Owls stay competitive because of their play on defense. They rank 2nd in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their defense travels. Temple ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road in hostile environments. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they are a decisive 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home.  They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Memphis is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. The Tigers can struggle to cover the point spread when laying plenty of points for a couple of reasons. First, they foul way too much — not only are they last in the American Athletic Conference in defensive foul rate, but they rank 304th in the nation in putting their opponents on the line. The Owls should take advantage here as they rank 22nd in the nation by nailing 76.6% of their shots at the charity stripe. Second, Memphis gives up too many second-chance scoring opportunities as their opponents pull down 32.0% of their missed shots, ranking 314th in the nation. Temple is a solid offensive rebounding team as they rank fifth in the conference by pulling down 30.5% of their missed shots. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning road record. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Temple will be seeking to avenge a 61-59 loss to Memphis on January 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when motivated by revenge. 20* CBB Temple-Memphis ESPN2 Special with the Temple Owls (829) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (830). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (779) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (780). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (15-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 75-62 loss to Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Villanova (11-13) ended a three-game losing streak with their 81-65 victory against DePaul as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall played their worst defensive game of the season as the Bluejays nailed 61.4% of their shots on Wednesday — the highest opponent's field goal percentage they allowed all season. The Pirates still rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. They have two impressive victories against UConn and Rutgers who rank 6th and 17th in the nation in the KenPom rankings. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss. They go back on the road where they have a 7-6 record this season — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. Seton Hall ranks 10th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and the Wildcats are vulnerable in this area as they rank sixth in the Big East in defensive free throw rate. Villanova has taken a step or two back in their first season since their legendary head coach Jay Wright retired. Under first-year head coach Kyle Neptune, the team’s best win was against Oklahoma which only ranks 60th in Ken Pomeroy’s metrics ranking system. The Wildcats rank just 103rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They made 51.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best offensive effort in their last six contests. But Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And while their hot shooting helped that game finish Over the Total set at 141 for that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They now have a 7-3 record at home — but they are only outscoring their opponents by +5.8 Points-Per-Game in those contests which include the bottom-floor teams in the Big East conference. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. After shooting 36.0% from behind the arc last season in conference play, they are only making 32.4% of their 3-pointers this season, ranking 11th in the Big East.

FINAL TAKE: Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored. 25* CBB FS1-TV Game of the Month is with the  Seton Hall Pirates (779) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fairfield Stags (877) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (878). THE SITUATION: Fairfield (10-13) has lost three games in a row after their 70-61 loss to Iona as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Rider (13-9) has won seven games in a row after their 67-56 victory at Manhattan as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STAGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fairfield has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three in a row to a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference opponent. The Stags are one of the best defensive units in the conference — and this helps them be competitive in road games. Fairfield ranks third in the MAAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also lead the conference with the lowest opponent free throw rate — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8% is the second-best in the MAAC. They have a 5-8 record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Additionally, the Stags have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after winning at least three in a row versus conference rivals. The Broncs have a 6-2 record at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. Furthermore, Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 range. Additionally, the Broncs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Fairfield is looking to avenge a 78-69 upset loss at home to Rider as a 2.5-point favorite on January 29th — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Fairfield Stags (877) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (833) minus the point(s) versus Long Beach State (834). THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (18-4) had their five-game winning streak end in a 72-67 upset loss at CS-Northridge as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Long Beach State (14-10) is on a six-game winning streak after a 93-88 victory at CS-Northridge as a pick ‘em on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINT(S): UC-Santa Barbara only shot 32.8% from the field on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 19 contests. The Gauchos have rebounded too over the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. UC-Santa Barbara leads the Big West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank second in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They stay on the road where they have a 7-3 record in true road games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. The biggest weakness for the Gauchos is that they are last in the Big West by allowing their opponents to nail 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Beach struggles with their outside shooting as they are at the bottom of the conference with a 25.1% shooting percentage from 3-point range. Long Beach State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. The Beach has also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last contest. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Long Beach State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (833) minus the point(s) versus Long Beach State (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (733) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (734). THE SITUATION: Florida (13-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 72-67 loss at Kentucky as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Alabama (20-3) has won 11 of their last 12 games in a 79-69 victory as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gators allowed the Wildcats to nail 45.2% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 13 games. Florida has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Gators have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 6 straight games on the road Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Florida stays on the road where they rank 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 2nd in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.7% when playing on the road. And in their last five games, Florida has held their opponents to 37.2% shooting which is resulting in just 61.8 Points-Per-Game. But when the Gators go on the road from Tallahassee, they only make 39.9% of their shots which generates just 65.4 PPG. Their effective field goal percentage of 41.8% ranks 357th in the nation. Florida has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Alabama nailed 13 shots from behind the arc in their win against Tigers on Saturday — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after making 13 or more 3-pointers in their last game. And Crimson Tide head coach Nate Oats has taken full advantage of his team’s embarrassing defensive effort in their SEC-Big 12 Challenge game with Oklahoma where they allowed 93 points as they held LSU to just 30.6% shooting after containing Vanderbilt to 25.0% shooting in their previous game. Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no better than 35% shooting — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after holding their last two opponents to 37% or less shooting from the field. The Crimson Tide has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against SEC rivals. Alabama ranks 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 2nd in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.4%. They return home where they have held their guests to 34.5% shooting which results in 61.7 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama does play at the fastest pace in the nation with their games averaging 73.5 adjusted possessions per game. But Florida sees only 69.0 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 80th in the nation — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Florida-Alabama ESPN2 O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Gators (733) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (734). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (645) and the Michigan State Spartans (646). THE SITUATION: Maryland (16-7) has won four games in a row after their 81-46 win at Minnesota as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Michigan State (14-9) has lost two games in a row after their 61-55 loss to Rutgers as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins held the Golden Gophers to just 34.2% shooting in their victory on Saturday. They have held their last five opponents to just a 40.6% field goal percentage which is resulting in only 55.4 Points-Per-Game. Maryland nailed 52.4% of their shots in the win which was the second-best shooting effort in their last 11 games. The Terrapins have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have all played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Now Maryland stays on the road where their 67.3 PPG that they average is -3.7 PPG below their season average. The Terrapins rank 29th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they collapse to ranking 200th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road in hostile environments (even after shooting well at Minnesota). Maryland has played 8 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. The Terrapins do get much of their offense from second-chance opportunities as they rank 2nd in the Big Ten by rebounding 31.2% of their missed shots. But they will not get many second chances against the Spartans who lead the Big Ten by holding their opponents to only 23.4% of their missed shots. Michigan State has played 5 straight Unders after losing their last game. In their last five games, the Spartans are scoring only 63.6 PPG. When playing at home in the Breslin Center, Sparty ranks only 89th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But head coach Tom Izzo’s team still plays tough defense as they hold their guests to just 38.5% shooting which translates into just 59.9 PPG. Michigan State ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. They have played 5 straight Unders when playing at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Maryland has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Maryland-Michigan State ESPN2 O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (645) and the Michigan State Spartans (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (839) and the Siena Saints (840). THE SITUATION: Niagara (12-9) has won three games in a row after their 76-73 victory against Canisius as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Siena (15-8) had won two games in a row before their 71-66 upset loss at Manhattan as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Purple Eagles have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Niagara goes back on the road where they rank 48th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.0% — and they rank in the top-64 in the nation in 3-point defense and inside the arc. And while the Purple Eagles rank 250th in the nation with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 101.6, that mark plummets to 95.5 when playing on the road in hostile environments, ranking 306th in the nation. They only make 44.7% of their shots inside the arc in these true road games, ranking  307th in the nation. Niagara has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road — including five of their last six games away from home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Siena allowed Manhattan to make 44.9% of their shots on Friday which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Saints have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark in conference play in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Siena has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in three days. They return home where they are making only 47.8% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 298th in the nation. The Saints have played their last 4 games at home Under the Total — and the Under is a decisive 30-12-2 in their last 44 games at home against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less when playing on the road. Siena has also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a slow pace. The Saints see 66.6 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 209th in the nation — and they average 19.0 seconds per possession, ranking 325th in the nation. Siena’s opponents average 16.9 seconds per possession which is the 45th quickest clip in the nation — but now they play a Purple Eagles team that averages 20.4 seconds per game, ranking 361st in the nation. Niagara averages 62.3 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 353rd in the nation. Both of these teams are going to crawl in this game. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (839) and the Siena Saints (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Saint Mary’s Gaels (822) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (821). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (19-4) is on a ten-game winning streak after their 68-59 victory against San Francisco as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. Gonzaga (19-4) has won three in a row after their 88-70 victory against Santa Clara as a 13-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAELS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Mary’s only shot 32.7% from the field two days ago which was the worst shooting effort for them this season. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. This is their second game since last Saturday — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing for the second time in the last seven days. They stay at home where they make 46.8% of their shots while ranking 29th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But it is on the other end of the court where head coach Randy Bennett’s team thrives. The Gaels rank 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their stout defense helps them rank as the 4th best team in the nation when playing on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last game. Saint Mary’s does not allow many second-chance scoring opportunities either — they lead the nation by holding their guests to rebounding only 17.7% of their missed shots when playing at home. They held the Dons to just six offensive rebounds on Thursday — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than five offensive rebounds in their last game. Gonzaga comes off one of their best games of the season in their 18-point win against the Broncos. They nailed 59.3% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. And they held Santa Clara to 40.0% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last nine contests. But the Bulldogs are 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win on the road. They are also just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win and point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% at home. Head coach Mark Few’s teams have some glaring weaknesses when compared to some of his recent teams. They are too dependent on scoring inside the arc since they only take 33.0% of their shots from outside the arc, the 291st lowest rate in the nation. And while they do make 57.5% of their shots inside the arc, that clip lowers to 54.3% when they are playing on the road. Now they face this Gaels’ defense that holds their opponents to just 43.5% shooting inside the arc, ranking 10th in the nation. Additionally, this is Few’s worst statistical defense at Gonzaga since the 2007-08 campaign with this group ranking 80th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing on the road, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking plummets to 201st in the nation with the problem being that their opponents enjoy an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%, ranking 327th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s beat Gonzaga by 10 points on their home court last season — but they will be looking to avenge their 82-69 loss to the Bulldogs in the West Coast Conference tournament on March 8th. Gonzaga is just 6-18-3 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with the Saint Mary’s Gaels (822) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (816) minus the point(s) versus the Wyoming Cowboys (815). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (13-9) has lost three of their last four games after their 72-51 loss at San Diego State as a 13.5-point underdog last Saturday. Wyoming (7-14) has won two of their last three games after their 85-62 victory against Fresno State as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINT(S): San Jose State made only 34.7% of their shots from the floor against the Aztecs last week which was the third-lowest shooting mark for them all season. San Jose State has rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. And in their last 21 games after a point spread loss, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games this season — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games at home when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Wyoming made 50.9% of their shots on Tuesday in their 23-point win against the Bulldogs — and that was the second-best shooting mark in their last six games. They also held Fresno State to just 37.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they rank 322nd in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage in their four games when playing they are playing on their opponent’s home court this season. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in all 4 of their road games this season.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has won only one game away from home all season -- a 7-point victory against Howard on a neutral court on November 18th. In their last six games away from home since December 1st, they have lost all six games by at least five points with a net point differential of -15.3 Points-Per-Game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with San Jose State Spartans (816) minus the point(s) versus the Wyoming Cowboys (815). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fairfield Stags (873) plus the points versus the Quinnipiac Bobcats (874). THE SITUATION: Fairfield (10-11) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 78-69 upset loss to Rider as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Quinnipiac (16-6) has won seven of their last eight games after a 72-66 victory against Marist as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STAGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fairfield should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. The Stags rank 2nd in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their defense travels as they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Fairfield ranks 19th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. They also rank 24th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 30.0% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they have been even stingier in conference play by holding their MAAC rivals to just a 26.3% shooting clip from 3-point range this season. They also rank 2nd in the conference in opponent free throw rate which will help against the Bobcats who lead the conference in free throw rate. Quinnipiac nailed 11 of their 22 shots from 3-point range on Tuesday — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after shooting 50% or better from 3-point range in their last game. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four games. Quinnipiac stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Fairfield Stags (873) plus the points versus the Quinnipiac Bobcats (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (637) and the Colorado State Rams (638). THE SITUATION: UNLV (14-7) has won two in a row after their 68-62 victory against Nevada as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. Colorado State (10-12) has lost three games in a row after their 80-59 loss at Boise State as an 8.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams only made 41.1 of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. This is a surprise since Colorado State ranks 20th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8% — and they are 13th in the nation by nailing 56.2% of their shots inside the arc. The Rams also allowed the Broncos to make 59.2% of their shots — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Over is 7-1-1 in Colorado State’s last 9 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And while the Rams have lost four of their last five games, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They return home where they are scoring 81.3 Points-Per-Game. Colorado State makes 41.3% of their shots from behind the arc on their home court, the 30th-best mark in the country. The Runnin’ Rebels are last in the Mountain West Conference by allowing their opponents to nail 41.5% of their 3-pointers. UNLV also ranks 246th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.8%. The Over is 6-0-1 in the Rams’ last 7 games at home. Furthermore, Colorado State has played 6 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. But the Rams rank 9th in the Mountain West in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they are going to give up their share of points. UNLV held the Wolf Pack to just 36.4% shooting on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last 12 contests. And while that final score flew Under the 140.5 point total for that game, the Runnin’ Rebels have then played 5 straight Overs after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Now UNLV goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has seen three of their last five games go into overtime — including their 82-81 upset win in Las Vegas against the Runnin’ Rebels as a 5.5-point underdog on January 14th so perhaps we can catch a break with an extra five minutes in this one. We should not need the additional time — UNLV has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with revenge and they have played 6 straight Overs when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (637) and the Colorado State Rams (638). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306503) plus the points versus the Norfolk State Spartans (306504). THE SITUATION: North Carolina-Central (10-10) has lost two games in a row after their 71-67 loss at Howard as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Norfolk State (14-7) has won five of their last seven contests after their 82-68 victory at South Carolina State as a 15-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: North Carolina-Central appears poised to be a feisty underdog in MEAC play after enduring the 23rd most difficult non-conference according to the numbers of metrics guru Ken Pomeroy. This is a battle-tested team that lost by just 12 points at Virginia and at Marquette. Howard made 52.0% of their shots against them on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. The Eagles do lead the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they should play better tonight in this matchup against the preseason conference favorite. North Carolina-Central is 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog. The Eagles were making 3-pointers earlier in the season — they rank 44th in the nation by nailing 37.2 of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. But they have gone cold in their outside shooting in conference play as they are only making 29.0% of their 3-pointers against MEAC foes. Head coach LeVelle Moton seems to have directed his team to take fewer 3s -- they shot 54.2% of their shots on Saturday despite making only 3 of 12 (25%) from 3-point range. What North Carolina-Central does well is force turnovers as they rank 75th in the nation by forcing their opponents to turn the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions. Pressure on the ball travels — and the Spartans are loose with the basketball by turning the ball over in 19.3% of their possessions, ranking 243rd in the nation — and that clip rises to 20.6% in conference play. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Norfolk State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. They stay at home where they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or lower on the road. The Spartans' resume is very thin right now — their best victory was against Maryland-Eastern Shore who ranks 260th in the nation at KenPom. North Carolina-Central has beaten Gardner Webb and UNC-Asheville who rank 174th and 181st at KenPom.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have covered the points spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and Norfolk State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when favored. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306503) plus the points versus the Norfolk State Spartans (306504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (601) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (602). THE SITUATION: Auburn (16-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 79-63 upset loss to Texas A&M as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. West Virginia (12-8) has won two of their last three games after their 76-61 upset win at Texas Tech as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup features two teams with similar profiles. Both of these teams are tough to score on in the half-court while forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass. These two teams also foul too much and are not great shooting teams. Auburn should be motivated to earn a high-profile non-conference win after their flat effort against the Aggies. They only made 42.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed Texas A&M to nail 47.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 contests. The Tigers are an outstanding defensive team that ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just a 43.1% effective field goal percentage, ranking 5th in the nation, led by their perimeter defense. They hold their opponents to just a 25.7% mark from behind the arc, ranking 2nd best in the country. They should play better this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 45-30 score to the Aggies on Wednesday, they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime in their previous game. They go back on the road where they rank 24th in the nation by making 55.2% of their shots inside the arc. And while Auburn ranks 18th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots, they are even more aggressive on the boards when playing on the road where they rebound 37.3% of their misses, ranking 8th best in the nation. The Mountaineers are vulnerable in this regard as they allow their opponents to pull down 28.2% of their missed shots, ranking 168th in the nation. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. And while they have still covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. West Virginia is better than their record — they endured a six-game losing streak in the brutal Big 12 grind which included an overtime loss at Kansas State, a five-point loss at home to Baylor, and a one-point loss at Oklahoma. They played their best defensive game in their last eight contests by holding the Red Raiders to just 38.9% shooting on Wednesday. But the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset victory by 15 or more points. West Virginia gets this game at home in Morgantown — but while they rank 21st in the nation according to one of the advanced analytical systems I track, their ranking when using those metrics when evaluating home court advantages drops to 44th in the nation. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6  home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Auburn has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games played in January. 25* CBB Big 12/SEC Challenge Game of the Year with the Auburn Tigers (601) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (602). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (888) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (887). THE SITUATION: Kent State (16-4) had their ten-game winning streak snapped with an 86-76 loss at Northern Illinois as a 13-point favorite on Tuesday. Buffalo (9-10) has won two of their last three games after their 91-65 upset victory at Ball State as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES MINUS THE POINTS: Kent State allowed the Huskies to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them this season. The Golden Flashes are a very good team that only lost by five points at Houston earlier this season. They rank 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are 9-0 with a +21.6 net point differential. They hold their guests to just 38.3% shooting which translates into just 63.4 Points-Per-Game. They are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games at home — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Kent State should blow out the Bulls due to their ability to force turnovers. The Golden Flashes rank 14th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and Buffalo turns the ball over in 19.8% of their possessions, ranking 261st in the nation. The Bulls nailed 59.7% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. They also held the Cardinals to just 40.0% shooting — but here come the Regression Gods as Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a game where they nailed at least 57% of their shots while holding their opponent to no better than 43% shooting. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. The Bulls stay on the road where they are only 2-8 while allowing their home hosts to make 46.5% of their shots which results in 81.7 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo only makes 62.8% of their free throws in Mid-American Conference play — the lowest mark in the conference. As a double-digit dog, the Bulls need every point they can muster — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games on the road getting 9.5 to 12 points. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Kent State Golden Flashes (888) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (887). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 AM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (837) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (838). THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (16-3) has won three straight games after their 76-58 victory against CS-Bakersfield as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. Hawai’i (15-5) has won three of their last four contests with their 67-63 upset win at UC-Riverside as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Hawai’i pulled the upset against the Highlanders by making 45.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. The Rainbow Warriors have played 6 straight Unders after an upset win against a Big West Conference rival — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after beating a conference rival in their last contest. Additionally, Hawai’i has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rainbow Warriors held UC-Riverside to just 31.9% to help earn this win. They rank 5th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.0%. Hawai’i is outstanding in defending the perimeter as they rank 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 25.5% shooting from behind the arc. But they also make things very difficult for their opponents inside the arc as they are only hitting 44.2% of their 2-point shots, ranking 16th in the nation. The Rainbow Warriors return home where they rank 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Hawai’i has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. UC-Santa Barbara comes off their worst defensive effort of the season after allowing the Roadrunners to nail 51.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have given up all year. The Gauchos survived by shooting 53.4% from the field themselves which was actually the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. UC-Santa Barbara has played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after winning their last game. Furthermore, the Gauchos have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. And while their last game finished Over the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drops from ranking 62nd in the nation on their home court to a rough 227th ranking in their eight true road games. But while ranking 243rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they dramatically improve in their away games on the road or neutral courts by ranking 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UC-Santa Barbara has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Gauchos have held their last five opponents to just 41.8% shooting which has resulted in only 57.6 Points-Per-Game. UC-Santa Barbara is an excellent shooting team inside the arc where they rank 23rd in the nation by making 55.5% of their 2-pointers. But Hawai’i can pack inside the paint against this team and dare them to take 3s where they rank 347th in the nation by making only 27.0% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Santa Barbara has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Rainbow Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total with the Total set no higher than 129.5. 25* CBB Big West Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (837) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (1521) plus the points versus the American Eagles (1522). THE SITUATION: Army (11-10) has lost two games in a row after their 77-71 upset loss to Navy as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. American (12-7) has lost four games in a row after their 62-61 loss at Colgate as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army is one of the best shooting teams in the nation — they rank 11th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 55.9%. They actually are even more effective at shooting the basketball when they are playing on the road in hostile environments. When playing in another opponent’s gyms, the Black Knights rank 2nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.9%. They rank 39.3% of their 3-pointers in true road games, ranking 18th in the nation, and they are making 58.9% of their shots inside the arc in their eighth true road games, ranking 5th in the nation. American does not play great defense on their home court — they rank 239th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 50.4% when playing at home and both of their opponent 3-point and 2-point field goal percentage ranks 209th or worse in the nation. Army has a 5-3 record when playing in a hostile environment on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straights on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road with the total set in the 130s. Army also thrives in keeping their opponents off the offensive glass — they rank 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 24.2% of their missed shots. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 47 games in January. They are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games as an underdog, Army has covered the point spread all 7 times. American has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after a loss by three points or less against a Patriot League rival. Additionally, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Furthermore, American has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. They return home where they are 5-2 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 130s. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: American will be looking to avenge a 72-60 loss at Army on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (1521) plus the points versus the American Eagles (1522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Richmond Spiders (890) minus the point(s) versus the VCU Rams (889). THE SITUATION: Richmond (11-8) has won four of their last five games after their 64-57 win against Rhode Island as an 8-point favorite on Tuesday. VCU (14-5) has won four in a row and nine of their last ten contests with their 83-55 win against UMass as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPIDERS MINUS THE POINT(S):                                                                   Richmond held the Rams to just 38.9% shooting which was actually the worst defensive effort in their last three games. The Spiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while Richmond has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Spiders now have a 9-1 record on their home court with a +14.0 net point differential. They are making 47.0% of their shots on their home court — and they rank 30th in the nation by nailing 58.0% of their shots inside the arc at home. They are also holding their opponents to 37.6% shooting at home which is resulting in their guests' 58.8 Points-Per-Game. They rank 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. VCU played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Minutemen to 29.2% shooting this week. But the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points versus an Atlantic 10 rival. But now they go back on the road where they are just 3-4 this season while making only 42.2% of their shots. VCU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage at home of 60% or higher. The Rams lead the Atlantic 10 by nailing 47.5% of their shots from behind the arc — but that mark plummets to a 33.9% clip when they are playing away from home in all their games this season. Now they face a Spiders defense that limits their guests to 27.5% shooting from 3-point range when playing at home, ranking 42nd in the nation. And while VCU leads the conference by forcing turnovers in 25.8% of their opponent’s possessions, Richmond only turns the ball in 16.0% of their possessions at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams face a tough matchup against Chris Mooney’s team that protects the basketball while playing at a grindingly slow place — and who plays tough half-court defense on their home court. VCU’s Plan A is to hit their 3s which is more of a challenge when playing on the road. Their Plan B is to force turnovers which the Spiders are good at defending against. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of up to three points. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Richmond Spiders (890) minus the point(s) versus the VCU Rams (889). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Riverside Highlanders (795) plus the points versus the Cal-Davis Aggies (796). THE SITUATION: UC-Riverside (13-6) has won four games in a row after their 83-78 win in overtime against Cal Poly-SLO as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. Cal-Davis (11-70 has won four games in a row as well with their 78-70 win at Cal-San Diego as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HIGHLANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: UC-Riverside allowed the Mustangs to make 50.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. But the Highlanders have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a point spread victory. UC-Riverside goes back on the road where they have an 8-4 record this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Highlanders match up well with the Aggies. They lead the Big West Conference by nailing 40.1% of their 3-pointers — and this shooting proficiency helps them rank 3rd in the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. Cal-Davis is last in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 40.2% of their 3-pointers — and they are also last in the Big West with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.6% against conference opponents. And while the Aggies lead the Big West by pulling down 37.3% of their missed shots, UC-Riverside leads the conference by holding their opponents to rebounding just 20.7% of their missed shots. Cal-Davis made 50.8% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. But the Aggies are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win against a conference rival in their last contest. Furthermore, Cal-Davis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning four games in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 1-5-3 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Highlanders have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the UC-Riverside Highlanders (795) plus the points versus the Cal-Davis Aggies (796). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (691) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (692). THE SITUATION: TCU (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with an 82-68 win against Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. West Virginia (10-7) has lost five games in a row after their 77-76 loss at Oklahoma as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers are desperate for a victory after dropping their first five games in conference play. Three of these losses were on the road — and four of the losses were by seven points or less. Metrics guru Ken Pomeroy still ranks West Virginia ahead of the Horned Frogs with the Mountaineers ranked 24th in his rating system with TCU three spots behind at 27th. West Virginia is one of the best scoring teams in the nation — they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 57th in the nation by pulling down 33.0% of their missed shots — and they should get plenty of second-chance points against the Horned Frogs. TCU ranks 265th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.9% of their missed shots — and they have been worse in conference play by allowing their Big 12 opponents to pull down 34.1% of their misses, ranking 9th in the conference. West Virginia has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Mountaineers have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They return home where they are scoring 80.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Head coach Bob Huggins' team is struggling due to the play of their defense — they rank 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are giving their opponents too many shots at the charity stripe as they rank 337th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. The Mountaineers have allowed their last five opponents to score 77.0 PPG. West Virginia has played 39 of their last 54 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored. TCU only made 46.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games — but they allowed the Wildcats to make 43.1% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests, so the short-term numbers point to a higher-scoring game tonight. The Horned Frogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They have also played 8 straight Overs after winning at least eight of their last ten games. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team should also get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight — they rank 27th in the nation by rebounding 35.1% of their missed shots. West Virginia is vulnerable on their defensive glass as they allow their opponents to rebound 28.7% of their missed shots, ranking 182nd in the nation. TCU goes back on the road where they are scoring 76.5 PPG. They have played 5 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Horned Frogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and West Virginia has played 25 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big 12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (691) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (617) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (618). THE SITUATION: Boston College (8-10) has lost three games in a row after their 85-63 loss to Wake Forest as a 2.5-point underdog. North Carolina (12-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 80-59 victory at Louisville as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tar Heels dominated the Cardinals on Saturday by holding them to just a 37.0% field goal percentage — the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But North Carolina is not an elite defensive team this season. After ranking 35th in the nation last year in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their trek to the national championship game, they have dropped to 58th in that metric this season. But the Tar Heels remain an outstanding offensive team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Carolina has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win of 20 or more points. They return home where they are making 48.1% of their shots which has resulted in 83.4 Points-Per-Game on their home court. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Boston College only made 38.2% of their shots on Saturday in their loss to the Demon Deacons — that was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. But the Eagles' defense continues to struggle as they allowed Wake Forest to nail 52.3% of their shots — and that came on the heels of them allowing Miami (FL) to shoot 60.4% from the field in their previous game. Boston College has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they allow their opponents to convert 49.5% of their shots. The Eagles have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina is 8-0 at home this season — and Boston College has seen the Over go 33-16-2 in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston College (617) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cal State-Fullerton Titans (908) minus the points versus the Cal State-Bakersfield Roadrunners (907). THE SITUATION: CS-Fullerton (9-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 83-79 loss at Cal-Davis as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. CS-Bakersfield (6-11) ended their two-game losing streak in a 56-52 upset win against Cal-San Diego as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: CS-Fullerton allowed the Aggies to make 45.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. The Titans have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game in three days. They return home where they have a 7-1 record with a +13.2 net point differential. CS-Fullerton should play their defense much better tonight as they limit their guests to 39.0% shooting which is resulting in only 60.9 Points-Per-Game. The Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This is the first meeting between these two teams — and it is a good matchup for CS-Fullerton. The Titans lead the Big West Conference with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 47.1% — and the Roadrunners are 10th in the conference with an opponent free throw rate in Big West play. CS-Fullerton will get to the charity stripe a lot tonight — and they are nailing 76.3% of their free throws in conference play. The Titans also pull down 32.0% of their missed shots in conference play, ranking 4th in the Big West. CS-Bakersfield allows conference opponents to rebound 30.2% of their missed shots, ranking 7th in the Big West. CS-Fullerton is also nailing 37.3% of their 3-pointers in conference play, ranking 3rd in the Big West right now. On their home court, the Titans are making 39.0% of their 3-pointers. CS-Bakersfield made 42.6% of their shots on Saturday to end their losing streak — and that was actually the best shooting effort from them in their last seven games. But the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread victory. CS-Bakersfield has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. CS-Bakersfield ranks 345th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — they had scored just 48 points in each of their two previous games before their upset victory on Saturday. But the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after scoring 65 or more points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are just 2-7 this season with a -9.4 net PPG differential. They only make 38.3% of their shots on the road which is translating into just 55.4 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with the  Cal State-Fullerton Titans (908) minus the points versus the Cal State-Bakersfield Roadrunners (907). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (747) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (748). THE SITUATION: TCU (13-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 69-67 upset loss to Iowa State as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 56-46 win at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU allowed the Cyclones to nail 52.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They should rebound tonight as they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss to a Big 12 opponent. They are also 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Jamie Dixon has one of the most experienced teams in the nation — they rank 3rd in Division I with 77% of their minutes back from the club that took Arizona to overtime in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs play with a style that travels well to hostile environments. They rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Not only does this team create extra-scoring possessions, but they also play outstanding defense. TCU ranks 255th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are led by a superb point guard Mike Miles, Jr. who leads the team in scoring, assists, and steals. The Horned Frogs have won all five of their games on the road this season while making 47.0% of their shots.  — and they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road. They are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win including their last four contests after covering the point spread. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games when playing their second game in five days. Interim head coach Rodney Terry is doing a fine job with this team — but the firing of head coach Chris Beard certainly hurts this squad. The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games since Beard was suspended (and later fired when police pressed battery charges against him for what he did to his wife). If there is a flaw to this team, it is that they foul too much — they rank 246th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. Additionally, while Texas ranks 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark plummets to 112th in the country in defensive efficiency when playing at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. TCU is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (747) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (654) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (653). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (9-7) has won three of their last four games after an 81-79 victory at Minnesota as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Illinois (10-5) has won two of their last three games after their 79-69 victory against Wisconsin as a 7.5-point favorite on   Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Fighting Illini won their first game against a conference opponent over the weekend as they took full advantage of a Badgers team playing without their best player and leading scorer Tyler Wahl. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Now they go back on the road where they have just a 2-4 record away from home while getting outscored by -5.5 net Points-Per-Game. They only make 43.6% of their shots on the road. The Illini have talent — but they are way too loose with the basketball. They rank 292nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.7% of their possessions with four of their rotation players each turning the ball over at least 20% or more of their possessions. It gets worse on the road where they turn the ball over in 22.3% of their possessions, ranking 320th in the nation. Illinois lives and dies with the 3-pointer as well — they rank 25th in the nation by attempting 45.5% of their shots from behind the arc. But the Fighting Illini only make 33.3% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 131st in the country. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Illini have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 130s. Nebraska returns home after playing their last two games on the road where they are 6-1 this season. They have beaten Iowa at home — and their lone loss at home was in overtime against a loaded Purdue squad that ranks 6th in the nation using the metrics at KenPom. The Cornhuskers outscore their guests by +13.6 net PPG while nailing 47.2% of their shots. They hold these visitors to 38.4% shooting which translates into only 61.7 PPG — and they rank 57th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. Nebraska has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 6 road games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. 20* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (654) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (771). THE SITUATION: SIU-Edwardsville (10-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-73 upset loss to SE Missouri State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Tennessee State (9-6) has won three of their last four games after a 94-69 victory against Arkansas-Little Rock as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: SIU-Edwardsville allowed SE Missouri State to nail 48.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they hold their opponents to just 39.2% shooting which results in only 61.3 Points-Per-Game for their guests. SIU-Edwardsville has a 5-1 record at home with a net point differential of +15.9 net PPG. They have covered 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. The Cougars pulled down 32.7% of their missed shots, ranking 67th in the nation. They now face a Tigers team that allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their misses, ranking 244th. Tennessee State made 58.9% of their shots in what was a season-high shooting effort for them this season. They nailed 14 of their 25 shots from behind the arc. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a game where they hit 13 or more of their 3-pointers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. Additionally, Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 90 or more points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road for the first time since December 3rd after playing seven straight games at home. They are just 1-4 on the road while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG. They only make 39.2% of their shots on the road and just 28.4% of their 3-pointers which translates into just 62.8 PPG. They are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games on the road — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Tennessee State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games after playing three or more straight games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN News Game of the Month with the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (771). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, whe will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (707) and the Murray State Racers (708). THE SITUATION: Bradley (10-5) has won three of their last four games with their 79-45 victory against Illinois-Chicago as a 15-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (8-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 78-61 win at Evansville as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves made 52.6% of their shots against the Flames which was the best shooting mark in their last seven games. Bradley has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Braves have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. This group is an outstanding defensive team that ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their stout defensive play starts from their interior defense which holds their opponents to 41.9% shooting inside the arc, ranking 7th in the nation. This spells trouble for the Tigers who get 53.7% of their points from 2-pointers, ranking 100th in the nation. In their four true road games, Bradley ranks 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In their seven games away from home (including three games played on a neutral court), the Braves hold their opponents to 43.9% shooting which results in 65.3 Points-Per-Game. But Bradley only makes 39.4% of their shots away from home which is generating a mere 57.3 PPG. The Braves have played 5 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Murray State has played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they holding their opponents to 61.6 PPG. The Racers have played 5 straight Unders on their home court — and they have 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. Murray State scores 70.2 PPG on their home court — and they rank 255th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency Rate on offense in their five games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Racers rank 33rd in the nation in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 29.1% shooting from behind the arc — and Bradley ranks 59th in the nation by getting 36.2% of their points from 3-point shooting. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (707) and the Murray State Racers (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seton Hall Pirates (627) and the Creighton Bluejays (628). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (8-7) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 88-66 win against St. John’s as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Creighton (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 80-65 win against DePaul as a 15.5-point favorite on Christmas Day.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates nailed 54.1% of their shots against the Red Storm — that field goal percentage along with their 88 points represented their best offensive numbers of the season. But Seton Hall has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last contest. The Under is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after winning their previous game by 20 or more points. And while the Pirates have played two straight Overs, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where they are only making 42.6% of their shots which is resulting in them scoring 65.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests — -4.9 PPG before their season average. Seton Hall has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 13-5-1 in their last 19 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Pirates are an outstanding defensive team in the first season under head coach Shaheen Holloway. Seton Hall ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 17th in the country by holding their opponents to 27.7% shooting from behind the arc. The Pirates like to get to the free throw line — they rank 6th in the nation in free throw rate. But now they play a Bluejays team that leads the nation in opponent free throw rate allowed. Creighton ranks 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also limit their opponents to pulling down only 21.8% of their missed shots, ranking 7th best in the nation. The Bluejays were on a six-game losing streak before winning their last two games by double-digit wins at home against Big East Rivals. Both of those games coincided with the return of Ryan Kalkbrenner who missed three games to an injury last month. Creighton has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning their previous two games against conference opponents by 10 or more points. They have made at least 54.0% of their shots in their last two games after not shooting better than 46.3% in their previous six contests. The Bluejays have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after shooting 50% or better from the field in two straight games. They have scored 158 combined points in their last two contests — but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. And in their last 5 games when playing with at least seven games between contests, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with seven or more days between games. They stay at home where they rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court. They hold their opponents to 40.7% shooting which is translating into their opponents scoring just 60.1 PPG. The Under is 21-10-1 in Creighton’s last 32 games at home — and the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Additionally, the Bluejays have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: Creighton has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Seton Hall has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Tuesday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seton Hall Pirates (627) and the Creighton Bluejays (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (741) and the San Francisco Dons (742). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (11-1) has won nine straight games after their 91-67 victory against San Diego as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-63 upset loss at UT-Arlington as a 15-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils nailed 47.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. Arizona State has played 6 straight Unders after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 7 straight Unders after a win by double-digits at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. The Sun Devils have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. They also allowed the Toreros to shoot 40.0% despite their opponent’s field goal percentage of 35.1%. Arizona State ranks 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their opponents to 61.3 Points-Per-Game. The Sun Devils play outstanding half-court defense — they are 4th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 40.4% while ranking 2nd in the country by limiting their opponents to making only 39.1% of their shots inside the arc. Now Arizona State goes back on the road where they make only 42.2% of their shots. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They only shot 38.2% from the field against the Mavericks in their last game — but they did nail 13 of their 31 (42%) shots from 3-point range. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after making 13 more snots from behind the arc in their last contest. San Francisco is not likely to come close to replicating that effort tonight considering they only make 32.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 206th in the nation. The Dons are going to struggle to score against the Sun Devils. Most of their scoring comes from inside the arc where they make 53.1% of their shots, ranking 80th in the nation — but that plays right into the heart of the Arizona State defense. San Francisco ranks just 173rd in the nation in offensive rebounding — and they do not get to the free throw line as they rank 180th in the free throw rate. The Dons do not draw a ton of fouls — their last two opponents to committed just 14 and 11 personal fouls. San Francisco has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not drawing 15 or more fouls in two straight games. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in the last seven days. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight Unders. They hold their guests to 41.2% shooting which results in 63.3 PPG. They also rank 38th in the nation in 3-point defense by limiting their opponents to a 29.0% shooting percentage from 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona State will be looking to avenge a 66-65 loss at home to the Dons as a 2.5-point underdog last season. The Sun Devils have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (741) and the San Francisco Dons (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (638) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (637). THE SITUATION: UAB (7-2) had their six-game winning streak snapped with an 81-70 loss at West Virginia as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. South Carolina (5-4) has won three of their last four contests after their 68-57 win against Presbyterian as a 9-point favorite on December 11th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB lost for just the second time this season after losing to Toledo on a neutral court. They have bounced back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while the 50.0% shooting percentage of the  Mountaineers on Saturday was the Blazers’ worst defensive effort of the season, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. This is a loaded team that returns six of the top nine players from last year’s group that won 27 games and lost to Houston in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. UAB has one of the best backcourts in the nation with high-scoring returning guard Jelly Walker now joined by LSU transfer Eric Gaines. They return home where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +31.2 points. They are nailing 50.9% of their shots at home with a 37.6% clip from behind the arc — and that is translating into 93.8 PPG. They hold their opponents to just 36.6% shooting on their home court which results in 62.6 PPG. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after a loss on the road. Covering 16 or so points is a difficult challenge — but UAB plays a style that produces blowouts against inferior competition. They play at a blistering pace which is the 4th quickest in the nation. They force turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions (#91st in the nation) with four players in the top-80 percentile in steal rate — and the Gamecocks turn the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions, ranking 239th in the nation. They also crash the glass by pulling down 36.2% of their missed shots — and South Carolina allows their opponents to rebound 28.7% of their missed shots, ranking 183rd in the nation. The Gamecocks are rebuilding after firing head coach Frank Martin in the offseason after an 18-13 record and what they considered a disappointing 8th-place finish in the SEC. Only 15.4% of the minutes return from that team — and while two starters are back, they combined for under 25 minutes per game between them. The new head coach is Lamont Paris who built a strong program at Chattanooga. He brought in a handful of transfer players and recruited five-star G.G. Jackson to the school — and while Jackson oozes with potential, he is still only 17 years old. South Carolina upset Clemson early in the season — but they have lost to Colorado State, Davidson, Furman, and George Washington. They beat an overmatched Presbyterian team while shooting a season-high 49.1% from the field — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. But they allowed the Blue Hose to make 52.2% of their shots which was the fourth opponent of theirs this season that made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams who are winning 60% or more of their games on their home court. In their six road games, South Carolina has lost four times with an average losing margin of -11.0 PPG. They are only making 39.4% of their shots which is generating just 61.7 PPG. They allow their opponents to nail 49.8% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: The real question for this game seems to be what UAB’s winning margin will be. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as a double-digit underdog — and the Blazers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when laying 10 or more points. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the UAB Blazers (638) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (709) and the SMU Mustangs (710). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (8-1) has won six games in a row after their 68-64 win against Stanford as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. SMU (3-5) has lost two games in a row after a 69-68 upset loss to Jackson State as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win including four straight Unders going into this game. They have also played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row. Arizona State has not allowed more than 65 points in seven straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight contests. Head coach Bobby Hurley has his team playing outstanding defense. They rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and only one of their opponents has made more than 39.7% of their shots against them. They rank 4th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 38.9% — and the 24.4% shooting from behind the arc and the 40.2% shooting inside the arc by their opponents are both the 6th best cards in the nation. Their 5.8 blocks per game are 14th in the nation. On the road, they are holding their opponents to 36.8% shooting which is resulting in just 61.7 Points-Per-Game But Arizona State is making only 41.8% of their shots on the road which is translating into 69.0 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. The Sun Devils are not a good outside shooting team as they make only 29.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 312th in the nation. They rely on getting to the charity stripe given their free-throw rate which is 28th in the nation — but the whistles from the referees are not always as accommodating when playing in a hostile environment for just the third time this season. Arizona State has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. SMU has played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mustangs can struggle to score points with only Zhuric Phelps and Zach Nutall averaging more than 9 PPG. SMU ranks 320th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. They struggle with their shooting everywhere on the court — they rank 299th in the nation with a 29.5% shooting percentage behind the arc and 291st in the country with a 45.7% mark inside the arc. SMU is making only 40.0% of their shots which results in just 67.0 PPG. But the Mustangs are a solid defensive team that ranks 108th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their guests to 39.4% shooting and 64.3 PPG when playing at home. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 17 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 27-8-1 in Arizona State’s last 36 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (709) and the SMU Mustangs (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State (659) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (660) in the Maui Invitational. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after their 88-77 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite in their opening game in the Maui Invitational. Arizona (4-0) beat Cincinnati yesterday in this tournament by a 101-93 score as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: San Diego State has been an elite defensive team under head coach Brian Dutcher — but scoring has been an issue. Their efficiency on offense improved in the second half of the season last year which helped them earn an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs returned most of the core of that team led by their leading scorer from last year Matt Turner. San Diego State brought in several transfer players who have already provided the team with additional scoring boosts. Darrion Trammel, a transfer from Seattle, has scored 20 or more points twice this year including 21 points against BYU. Jaedon LeDee, a transfer from TCU, scored 23 points against BYU. After making at least 51.0% of their shots in two of their first three games, the Aztecs made 50.8% of their shots against the Buckeyes last night. They are scoring 81.0 Points-Per-Game on 48.5% shooting -- and they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Led by the reigning Mountain West Conference Defensive Player of the Year in big man Nathan Mensah, they remain elite on defense as well by ranking 9th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after making at least 50% of their shots in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 85 points in their last contest. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Aztecs have played a challenging non-conference schedule which has included a 7-point win against BYU and a 12-point win at Stanford in their last game before this tournament. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. Arizona has made at least 54.5% of their shots in all four of their games after nailing 80% of their shots in the second half last night against the Bearcats en route to a 62.3% shooting clip for the game. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. Second-year head coach Tommy Lloyd has a loaded roster again this season with six players averaging double-digits. But they have demonstrated some weaknesses. They are turning the ball over in 21.8% of their possessions, ranking 284th in the nation. The Aztecs force turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 79th in the nation. Arizona is also allowing their opponents to make 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 312th in the nation. San Diego State is not crashing the glass on offense as they have in the past — but they are nailing 40.5% of their shots from 3-point land, ranking 23rd in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: This will be a clash of styles with Arizona leading the nation in Adjusted Tempo while scoring 104.3 PPG. But San Diego State ranks 331st in the nation in opponent possession length. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CBB San Diego State-Arizona ESPN Special with the San Diego State (659) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (885) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (886). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-0) has opened their season with three straight victories after an 86-56 win against Norfolk State as a 20.5-point favorite on Monday. Illinois (3-0) has won their first three contests after a 103-65 victory against Monmouth as a 28-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for the Continental Tire Main Event tournament.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is the first true test for both these teams that have aspirations to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins return Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell from the group that finished 27-8 last season. But head coach Mick Cronin does replace Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard who combined to score 28.4 Points-Per-Game last season. UCLA nailed 57.1% of their shots on Monday against Norfolk State which was the best shooting effort of their season. They allowed Norfolk State to make 47.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the year — so that end of the court will likely be an area of emphasis tonight for Cronin. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they made at least 55% of their shots. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while UCLA has scored at least 76 points in all three of their games, they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in three straight contests. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, they have played 14 of these games Under the Total. Illinois replaces ten players from their team that finished 23-10 including their top five scorers headlined by Kofi Cockburn who departed early for the NBA. Head coach Brad Underwood hit the transfer window hard by bringing in Terrence Shannon, Jr. from Texas Tech and Matthew Mayer from Baylor. They have a talented point guard in Sky Clark but he is a freshman who will be tested for the first by an elite opponent. The Fighting Illini made 59.7% of their shots against Monmouth which was the best shooting effort of the season — but they allowed them to make 42.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season after holding their first two opponents to just 35.0% and 31.2% shooting. Illinois has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first game away from home for both teams. Both of these teams are struggling to make their free throws with UCLA making only 67.5% of their shots from the charity stripe and Illinois only hitting 64.6% of their freebies. The Illini have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. The Bruins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140-144.5 point range. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (885) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (886). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) and the Kansas Jayhawks (722) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-9) won their 11th game in their last 12 with their 81-77 upset victory against Duke as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (33-6) won their tenth straight game with their 81-65 victory against Villanova as a 4-point favorite in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tar Heels held Duke to just 42% shooting with them missing 17 of their 22 shots from behind the arc. That was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games — but it was an impressive defensive display against a Blue Devils team that was leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Carolina has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Tar Heels also pulled down 49 rebounds against Duke — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after grabbing at least 46 boards in their last game. Kansas made 54% of their shots in their victory against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. They also made 13 of their 24 shots (54%) from behind the arc despite only making 33% of their shots from the 3-point range. While the Jayhawks have 76 and 81 points in their last two games, they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. Kansas has really tightened things up in the second half of the season. While Villanova made only 39% of their shots, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in the Jayhawks’ last five games. Kansas has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after holding at least three straight opponents to no higher than a 40% field goal percentage. The Jayhawks have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games while Kansas ranks fourth in the nation in that defensive metric in their last ten games. Expect a lower-scoring game. 10* CBB Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) and the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-9) won their 11th game in their last 12 with their 81-77 upset victory against Duke as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (33-6) won their tenth straight game with their 81-65 victory against Villanova as a 4-point favorite in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: David McCormack may have played the best game of his career on Saturday by making 10 of 12 shots in the field en route to his 25 points. He dominated the Wildcats inside and took full advantage of their lack of size. But McCormack has been enigmatic his entire career — he has a high ceiling but his biggest challenge has been maintaining consistency from game to game. McCormack is emblematic of this entire Kansas team: when they are playing at their best, they look unbeatable. But too often this Jayhawks team gets in their own way as they seem to lose focus. After trailing Miami (FL) 35-29 at half-time in their Elite Eight, Kansas has probably their best 60 consecutive minutes all season. But, frankly, I will pay to see if they can nail 13 of 24 (54%) of their 3-pointers as they did against Villanova. The Jayhawks had only made 33% of their shots from behind the arc in their 11 previous games on a neutral court before Saturday. Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after nailing at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game. This Jayhawks team was flat in the first half against the Hurricanes last weekend. They struggled against an injured Creighton team playing without their best two players. They let Providence back in their Round of 32 game despite the Friars not being able to hit the side of a barn for most of that contest.

Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considered the Tar Heels the best team in the nation going into Saturday in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also ranked North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th (before the Duke game). What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against St. Peter’s. It was then Love on Saturday who took charge for this team by scoring 28 points against the Blue Devils. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue after the continued confidence they have after beating a Duke team loaded with future NBA talent. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: I will not be surprised if Kansas does not play as well as they did on Saturday. But even if they play at the same high level as they did in the second half against Miami (FL) and Villanova, I still expect North Carolina to be very competitive. The Jayhawks will not be able to dominate the offensive boards like they did the Wildcats by pulling down 37.0% of their missed shots. North Carolina ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.6% of their missed shots. The Tar Heels are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog.  I think North Carolina wins straight-up — but I do not recommend “sprinkling” (such a lame phrasing for throwing one’s money away) any money on them with the money-line. Why forego the insurance that is the 4 or so points they are getting in this game? If you want to make more money, then parlay the Tar Heels (with the points) with my totals play for this game. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) and the Duke Blue Devils (704) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (28-9) has won 10 of their last 11 games after a 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite in the Elite Eight last Sunday. Duke (32-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 78-69 win against Arkansas last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I concluded that the game script for this showdown should trend Over -- but the red flag I have struggled is with the strong historical numbers supporting Unders on neutral courts with the Total in the 150s (in the last five years, the Under is 390-290 (59%) in games played on a neutral court with the Total in the 150s). I realized what would convince me is to simply look at the data in the Final Four play in domes. Since 2011, four games were in domes with the Total in that point total range. The Under is 2-1-1 -- but last year's Gonzaga-Baylor game would have gone Over if it was a closer game than the Bears’ 86-70 victory (and I think this will be closer, so more likely to trigger the late free throw circus). There was also an Over with the total at 149.5 with Villanova beating North Carolina in 2016's Championship Game -- and that total opened at 151, so the historical data is real close to a 2-2-1 Over/Under mark. The sample size is way low, of course, but this data does conflict with the historical data I was worried about above. I am seeing a lot of evidence for the Over between these ACC rivals. The Blue Devils have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, Duke has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. North Carolina has played 3 games this season on a neutral court with the Total in the 150s — and all 3 games finished Over the Total. The Tar Heels have played 6 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina is scoring 78.1 Points-Per-Game and Duke scores 80.1 PPG. These are two teams whose identity is on offense — they both rank in the top-8 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And while the Blue Devils are the top-ranked team in that metric in the nation, the Tar Heels rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games. But these two teams rank 45th and 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so I do not see either coach deciding that defensive stops are the key to their success. The average for both the games these teams played this season was 164.5 combined points — so this line asks if this game in the Caesars Superdome will see more than 10 fewer combined points. These two teams have played 6 straight Overs in their last 6 battles — and I expect more of the same. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) and the Duke Blue Devils (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (28-9) has won 10 of their last 11 games after a 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite in the Elite Eight last Sunday. Duke (32-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 78-69 win against Arkansas last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considers the Tar Heels the best team in the nation in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also rank North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th. What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against the Peacocks. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, North Carolina is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. We have backed Duke in their last two wins (and covers) against Arkansas and Texas Tech — but I hate this spot for them. I suspect this the game that the enormous pressure this young team has in carrying the legacy of head coach Mike Krzyzewski in his final games before retirement. I heard some pundits comment that the pressure was higher in their final home game at Cameroon Indoor against this Tar Heels team with all the alumni in the house. While I appreciate there was pressure then, to suggest that a regular-season game on the second Saturday in March presented more pressure than a Final Four is ludicrous. And, by the way, this team did not handle that pressure very well in that 94-81 loss. The team trends point to this being a letdown spot for Duke. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least four in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have scored at least 78 points in each of their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. The Blue Devils have some issues. They only rank 45th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they fall slightly to 51st in the nation in that metric in their last ten games. It is their half-court defense that is the biggest weakness as their opponents have a 47.0% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking just 48th in the nation. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament. These teams share more than having campuses within eight miles of each other. The profile of both teams is dynamic offenses with athletes that crash the glass on both ends of the court — and while neither team forces turnovers, they both rank in the top seven in the nation in opponent foul rate. But it is North Carolina that ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.2% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: Duke has the revenge angle here from that 13-point loss as an 11-point favorite — but the historical numbers in the NCAA Tournament regarding teams looking to avenge a same-season loss favor the team that won the previous game. Admittedly, that is from a limited sample size over many years — but it suggests that the market might be overvaluing Duke as if the revenge angle means they “really, really” want to win as opposed to just “really” wanting to beat UNC. Furthermore, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss where they were favored by at least seven points — including failing to cover the spread in three of those four opportunities this season. Duke has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home under Coach K. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (701) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (702) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (30-7) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 50-44 upset victory against Houston as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (32-6) has won nine games in a row after beating Miami (FL) by a 76-50 score as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats will have to play this game without their leader in minutes, Justin Moore. The junior is second on the team with a 14.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average while adding 4.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and 2.9 Assists-Per-Game. All four of Villanova’s other starters are very good — and the team does not miss a beat when Caleb Daniels comes off the bench. Depth is an issue for head coach Jay Wright — but that has been a challenge all year despite dealing with injuries and COVID issues all season. Wright uses a smaller bench by choice, John Wooden-style. Look for the team to rally together for this game and play quite well. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory. They have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while Villanova has held their last two opponents to 55 or fewer points, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 55 points in two straight games. The Wildcats rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency -- and that number improves to ranking 9th in the nation when evaluating Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. Over their last ten games, the Jayhawks rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Kansas thrives when getting out in transition to score baskets — but this will be easier said than done against Villanova. The Wildcats do not turn the ball over to allow for these opportunities — they rank 29th in the nation by turning the ball over just 15.5% of the time. Head coach Jay Wright’s team is also masterful in switches — so they are comfortable defending in transition. The Jayhawks had been listless of many of their NCAA Tournament games against probably the easiest draw of all the four teams in New Orleans this weekend. They do come off the best 20 minutes of basketball they played in the Big Dance when they steamrolled the Hurricanes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Bill Self’s Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament — and the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games in the Big Dance. In Jay Wright, I Trust to at least keep this one a coin flip at the end. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Villanova Wildcats (701) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Final Four game between the Villanova Wildcats (701) and the Kansas Jayhawks (702) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (30-7) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 50-44 upset victory against Houston as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (32-6) has won nine games in a row after beating Miami (FL) by a 76-50 score as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats will have to play this game without their leader in minutes, Justin Moore. The junior is second on the team with a 14.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average while adding 4.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and 2.9 Assists-Per-Game. Villanova already plays at a snail’s pace — they average 19.9 seconds-per-possession, ranking 349th in the nation, and their games average only 62.6 possessions per game, ranking 345th in the country. Look for head coach Jay Wright to demand his team be even more patient on offense without Moore as a scoring option — they will probably average more than 20 seconds per possession. Wright will want to shorten this game — and then maybe Collin Gillespie and his veteran teammates can steal it late. This was the formula for success against Houston (even with Wright) as they only made 28.8% of their shots — but their defense stymied the Cougars who only made 29.8% of their shots. Villanova has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Wildcats rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency -- and that number improves to ranking 9th in the nation when evaluating Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. But in their ten games played on a neutral court, Villanova ranks 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency which is fine but -7.7 adjusted points per 100 possessions less than what they generate at home, where they rank 3rd in the nation. Incidentally, the Wildcats see their average possessions drop to a 61.7 average on neutral courts. Villanova has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Kansas is playing their best defense of the season after holding the Hurricanes to just 34.5% shooting last weekend. That was the fourth straight game where they did not allow an opponent to make more than 35.6% of their shots from the field. Over their last ten games, the Jayhawks rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Unders after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Kansas thrives when getting out in transition to score baskets — but this will be easier said than done against Villanova. The Wildcats do not turn the ball over to allow for these opportunities — they rank 29th in the nation by turning the ball over just 15.5% of the time. Head coach Jay Wright’s team is also masterful in switches — so they are comfortable defending in transition. Look for the Wildcats to bypass offensive rebounding to get back on defense — not only will that help stifle the Jayhawks' attack, but it will also limit their own second-chance scoring opportunities. Villanova will try to make up the difference with 3-point shooting since they attempt 46.1% of their shots from downtown, ranking 26th in the nation. But Kansas holds their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 17th in the country. By the way, while the Wildcats make 41.3% of their shots from 3-point range at home, ranking 6th in the nation, that proficiency plummets to a 31.9% clip when playing on a neutral court, ranking 183rd in the country — and those numbers include Moore’s contributions who is a 35.6% shooter from distance. The Jayhawks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Big Dance — and the Jayhawks have played 28 of their last 41 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Final Four game between the Villanova Wildcats (701) and the Kansas Jayhawks (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (27-12) has won 11 of their last 12 games with a 72-56 victory against Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Tuesday. Xavier (22-13) has won five of their last six games after their 84-77 upset victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Buzz Williams complained loudly about the tragic injustice it was that his Texas A&M team did not get an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament after beating Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas in the SEC Tournament before losing to Tennessee in the championship game. It’s shame this small private school scarping for money can’t catch a break — especially after losing nine of ten games during a midseason slump. No one is feeling sorry for Texas A&M — and often teams that feel robbed from an at-large bid then fall flat in the NIT. Credit goes to Williams for keeping his team focused as they have beaten all four of their opponents in this tournament by at least 12 points. Now with one game away from taking the title, look for another strong effort from the Aggies. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The calling card for this team is defense — they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while rising 10th in the country in that metric over their last ten games. After limiting the Cougars to just 34.5% shooting on Tuesday, they have held their last five opponents to no better than 39.3% field goal percentage. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing at last three straight opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Xavier made 53.1% of their shots in their victory against the Bonnies which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Xavier has faced turmoil all season. After an 11-2 start to their Big East campaign, they lost 11 of their next 17 conference games which cost them a spot in the Big Dance. After beating Cleveland State in the first round of the NIT, the program let head coach Travis Steele. Assistant coach Jonas Hayes took over on an interim basis with the university re-hiring Sean Miller after his tumultuous run at Arizona. The team also lost their fifth-year senior point guard Paul Scruggs to a season-ending injury in their second NIT game against Florida. This leaves the Musketeers short-handed with just a six-man rotation. Scruggs was the team’s second-leading scorer averaging 11.7 Points-Per-Game — and he led the team by dishing out 4.1 Assists-Per-Game. He is critical in protecting the basketball against pressure as well — in that game against the Gators where he got injured, Xavier turned the ball over 18 times representing 24.0% of their possessions. Now they face a Texas A&M team that is eighth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Aggies’ depth is also a strength as they rank 23rd in the nation in bench minutes with 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. Williams will be able to throw waves of players and pressure at a Xavier team missing their floor general.

FINAL TAKE: The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year is on the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (649) and the Texas A&M Aggies (640) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Washington State (22-14) won their seventh game in their last eight with their 77-58 upset victory at BYU as a 2.5-point underdog last Wednesday in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. Texas A&M (26-12) has won 10 of their last 11 contests with their 67-52 victory against Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite in their Quarterfinals match on Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars made 43.9% of their shots against BYU which was their best shooting mark in their last five games. They are only making 38.3% of their shots in their last five games. Washington State finds success on the other end of the court where they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While BYU made 41.1% of their shots against them last week, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Cougars have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Washington State has 75 and 77 points in their last two contests — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Cougars cannot shoot — they rank 263rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.1% while ranking 313th in the country by making only 46.2% of their shots inside the arc. Furthermore, they have played 16 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing for no more than the second time in the last eight days. Additionally, Washington State has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last four opponents to no better than 39.3% shooting after the Demon Deacons only made 34.0% of their shots against them last week. The Aggies have not allowed more than 65 points in six straight games — and their last two opponents in this tournament have not topped 60 points. Texas A&M has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home. This play on defense has helped the Aggies play four straight Unders. They have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. Texas A&M wants to get their offense in transition by forcing turnovers — they rank eighth in the nation by triggering turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions. But this is going to be tough against this Cougars team that only turns the ball in 16.4% of their possessions, ranking 50th in the nation. The Aggies can get bogged down in the half-court with their offense. They only make 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 231st in the nation — and they only made 29.0% of their 3-pointers in the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has played 4 straight Unders when the favorite. Washington State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (649) and the Texas A&M Aggies (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (643) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (27-9) has won nine of their last ten games with their 73-66 upset win against UCLA as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. Saint Peter’s (22-11) won their tenth game in a row with their 67-64 upset win against Purdue as a 13-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina was considered a top-15 team in the nation in the preseason — and after a sluggish start to the season, they are peaking at the right time now in March. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning four or five of their last six games. North Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Saint Peter’s has pulled off three straight upsets in this tournament despite losing all three games using the expected baskets from the analytics department at Shot Quality. The Peacocks were able to handle the Boilermakers' size — but that may speak more about Purdue than it does them with hindsight. Saint Peter’s is going to have their hands full dealing with Armando Bacot and Brady Manek. Saint Peter’s has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing their second game in three days. The Peacocks' fortunes have extended to the free-throw line where they ranked 234th in the nation by making 70% of their shots at the charity stripe. In the NCAA Tournament, the Peacocks have made 60 of their 73 shots from the free-throw line. They got to the line 21 times against Purdue where they made 19 of their freebies (90.4%) — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 88% of their free throws in their last game. Getting to the free-throw line is Saint Peter’s game as they rank 17th in the nation in free throw rate — but the Tar Heels do not foul as they rank 8th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. This Peacocks team remains below average on offense with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 216th in the nation. They only make 46% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 314th in the nation. They also turn the ball over in 20.4% of their possessions, ranking 298th. Eventually, these characteristics catch up to big underdogs. And while they rank 71st in the nation by pulling down 31.4% of their misses, North Carolina is the second-best defensive rebounding team in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 21.4% of their misses.

FINAL TAKE: Saint Peter’s will continue to play good defense — but they will need an outlier effort on offense from behind the 3-point line to stay competitive with this surging Tar Heels team. 20* CBB Saint Peter’s-North Carolina CBS-TV Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kansas (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 66-61 victory against Providence as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Miami (FL) (26-10) has won six of their last seven contests with their 70-56 win against Iowa State as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas can be a frustrating team to watch — but they have a significant talent edge in this game which should shine through in the end. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after winning at least two in a row without covering the point spread as a favorite. Kansas is playing well on the defensive end of the court. They have not allowed a tournament opponent to make more than 35.6% of their shots after holding the Friars to just 33.8% shooting — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 37% of their shots. The Jayhawks are a bit better than their metrics suggest now that Remy Martin is healthy again and fully in the mix. He has scored double-digits in five straight games while leading the team with 58 points so far in this tournament. Kansas is efficient on offense as they usually take good shots — they rank fifth in the nation with a 1.27 Points-Per-Possession in Shot Quality. The Jayhawks' big edge in this game is their offensive rebounding. Kansas ranks 35th in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots — and the Hurricanes allow their opponents to rebound 30.5% of their missed shots, ranking 271st in the nation. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory by double-digits. They have played three straight Unders — but the Hurricanes have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. And while Miami has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Hurricanes are a potent offensive team that does not turn the ball over while shooting 55.0% inside the arc. They force turnovers on defense which facilitates their transition offense. But this is not a good defensive team in the half-court. Miami ranks 114th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 283rd in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.5%. They allow their opponents to make 52.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 299th in the country — and this will likely be the source of their demise against the Jayhawks.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (641) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (31-6) won their fifth game in their last six with their 78-73 win against Texas Tech in a pick ‘em on Thursday. Arkansas (28-8) has won four of their last five games with their 74-68 upset win against Gonzaga as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke made a statement by scoring at a 1.16 Points-Per-Possession rate against a Red Raiders team that was ranked number one in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Blue Devils amped up their intensity in the second half by nailing 71% of their shots while not missing a shot from the field in the final seven or so minutes of the game. Peak Duke has as high a ceiling as any team in the country (they did beat Gonzaga earlier in the year). Head coach Mike Krzyzewski demonstrated he still has a trick or two up his sleeve by having his team come out in the second half playing a zone defense. The rotation might have four or five first-round draft picks in the next NBA draft. After shooting 33.1% from behind the arc in the regular season, Paolo Banchero, the potential top-pick in the summer NBA draft has nailed 7 of his 13 (53.8%) of his 3-pointers in this tournament. A.J. Griffin scored 11 points while not showing any after-effects from the ankle injury that kept him out of the game late against Michigan State last weekend. But what has been the difference for this team in this tournament has been the play of point guard Jeremy Roach who Coach K re-inserted into the starting lineup after their loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. Roach scored 15 points on 7 of 11 shooting and added five assists. He is averaging 13.4 PPG in his last seven games while making 9 of his 24 shots from behind the arc. Arkansas may be poised for an emotional letdown after sleighing the Goliath that is Gonzaga as a 9.5-point underdog. Critical in their win was forcing the Bulldogs into 15 turnovers while holding them to 37.5% shooting. Gonzaga missed 16 of their 21 shots from 3-point range. The Razorbacks were able to slow the Bulldogs down — and then they frustrated them in the half-court. Duke is more effective in the half-court offense. They are not likely to indulge Arkansas in turnovers. The Blue Devils rank 21st in the nation by turning the ball over 15.1% of the time. Against a more-effective turnover-forcing team in the Red Raiders, Duke only turned it over 10 times. Roach only has one game where he turned the ball over four or more times this season. Arkansas also wants to get to the free-throw line as they rank 26th in the nation in getting to the line — and 22.7% of their points come from the charity stripe. But the Blue Devils ran second in the nation in defensive free throw rate. Frankly, the stars were aligning for the Razorbacks on Thursday. Jaylin Williams nailed two shots from behind the arc after making only 17 shots from 3-point range in the regular season. Trey Wade made three of his four shots from distance after making only 12 in the regular season. Arkansas is not built to stay competitive by bombing from 3 — they rank 316th in the nation by making only 30.4% of their 3-pointers. J.D. Notae was given the green light to shoot from anywhere by head coach Eric Musselman — but he only made 9 of his 29 shots while missing 10 of his 12 shots from behind the arc. Notae has not made more than two shots from distance since February 19th.

FINAL TAKE: Duke should not Remy Martin-us (Kansas last night) if they are trying to stay just ahead of the point spread late in the game at the free-throw line. While Martin missed three free throws late in the game against Providence, the Blue Devils have only missed seven of their 47 shots at the charity stripe in this tournament for an 85% clip. Duke has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance. 20* CBB Arkansas-Duke TBS-TV Special with the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (640) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (639) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (29-7) won their eighth straight game with their 63-55 victory against Michigan as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Houston (32-5) has won six straight after their 72-60 upset win against Arizona as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the AT&T Center in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a matchup of two similar teams in that they are both as well-coached as any group in college basketball with programs that feature the system over the talent. There are likely not any future NBA All-Stars on the court tonight — but the basketball will remain top quality. With Villanova getting a basket as an underdog, the value lies with Jay Wright’s team. He has overseen two National Championships with this program since 2016. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games in the NCAA Tournament including five of their last six Big Dance contests. They covered the point spread against the Wolverines despite shooting just 37.3% from the field which was their worst effort so far in this tournament. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing their third game in seven days. The Cougars will have difficulty forcing turnovers against this Wildcats small-ball lineup that ranks 28th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. Where Villanova has an edge is at the charity stripe — and not only will their free throws play a role to keep this game close during the game, but it will help in clutch time. The Wildcats are making 82.6% of their freebies which is not only the best mark in the nation but also on pace to break the NCAA record for the highest team free throw percentage in history. They have made 38 of their 44 (86.4%) free throw attempts. The flip-side to the Cougars’ aggressiveness in forcing turnovers is that they get called for fouls — they rank 291st in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. And for all the good things Houston does well, they give away points at the charity stripe as they only make 66.7% of their freebies, ranking 291st in the nation. In their first three games in this tournament, they have made only 37 of their 57 (64.9%) of their free-throw attempts. The Cougars did make 9 of their 20 (45%) shots from behind the arc against Arizona — after only making 6 of 22 (27.3%) of their 3-pointers versus Illinois. Houston is not a great 3-point shooting team as they only make 34.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 115th in the nation. This is another area where Villanova has an edge as they rank 54th in the nation by making 36.0% of their 3-pointers. The Cougars are third in the country in offensive rebounding — they will get second-chance opportunities against the Wildcats. But Houston ranks only a middling 165th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 27.8% of their missed shots — and Villanova is solid in this department by ranking 76th in the country by rebounding 31.1% of their misses. And while the Cougars’ defense is elite, their best work was done on their home court where they led the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Away from home, they fall to 29th in the nation in that defensive metric — and they are 13th in the nation when only evaluating their play on neutral courts.

FINAL TAKE: Villanova may have the best player and leader on the court tonight in Collin Gillespie at point guard. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set no higher than 129.5 — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road after 15 games in the season against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Houston-Villanova TBS-TV Special with the Villanova Wildcats (640) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (639). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Pilots (883) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (884) in the Quarterfinals of the Basketball Classic. THE SITUATION: Portland (19-14) has won two of their last three games with their 94-73 win against New Orleans as a 9-point favorite last Saturday. Southern Utah (22-11) has won four of their last five games with their 82-69 upset win at UTEP as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PILOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has the rest advantage with three extra days off than the Thunderbirds — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. This Pilots team has been steadily improving all season under first-year head coach Shantay Legans. The former Eastern Washington coach has one of the youngest rosters in the country — but with a handful of international transfers as well as three important cogs to his Eastern Washington team last year, this team has talent. They also play better away from home as they rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency margin as opposed to their 151st overall ranking in that metric. Portland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Pilots have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Southern Utah nailed 58.2% of their shots against UTEP which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. They also held the Miners to a 37.5% shooting clip which was the best defensive effort in their last seven contests. But the Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won four of their last five contests, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning four of their last five games. Southern Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have scored 83 points in their four-point upset win against Kent State in the opening game of this tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while both those games finished Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 home games after playing two straight Overs. Southern Utah ranks 179th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to a ranking of just 208th in the country in that metric when playing at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 60 home games when favored including seven of their eleven games at home laying points this season. The strength of this team is protecting their defensive glass as they limit their opponents to pulling down only 22.7% of their missed shots, ranking 16th in the nation. But the Pilots sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense as they only rebound 24.0% of their misses, ranking 299th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah won the Big Sky Conference regular-season title last year — but, in hindsight, that accomplishment looks like a fortunate by-product of the instability from a season played during COVID. Portland is on the rise — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Basketball Classic Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Portland Pilots (883) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:59 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (637) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (638) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (22-12) advanced to the Sweet 16 with a 54-49 upset win against Wisconsin as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Miami (FL) (25-10) has won five of their last six games with their 79-61 upset win against Auburn as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: In this battle of the Hurricanes' potent scoring attack against the stout defense of Iowa State, I expect the defense will reign supreme. The Cyclones held the Badgers to just 29.8% shooting after holding LSU to 37.0% shooting in their opening-round upset. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The Cyclones rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. After forcing 17 turnovers against a Badgers team that is second in the nation in offensive turnover rate, they now rank fourth in the country by forcing turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank eighth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 28.7% shooting from behind the arc. The weakness of this Iowa State team is their scoring — but they do have three players in Izaiah Brockington, Caleb Grill, and Aljaz Kunc all hit at least 35% of their shots from behind the arc. Miami ranks 121st in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 304th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.2% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 255th in the nation with their opponents nailing 34.9% of their shots from distance. Breaking down those 3-point defensive numbers makes it look worse for the Hurricanes. Miami ranks 337th in the country in catch-and-shoot 3-point defense, 160th in open 3-point defense, and 289th in rim and 3-point defense. Miami did hold Auburn to 30.4% shooting on Sunday but that was the best defensive effort of their season. They also made 48.5% of their shots in what was the best shooting performance in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games when favored on a neutral court — and they have failed to cocker the point spread in 5 straight games in the NCAA Tournament when favored. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Iowa State Cyclones (637) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (638). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (632) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (631) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (27-7) has won seven of their last eight games with their 72-56 win against Saint Mary’s as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (26-9) has won eight of their last nine games after their 93-86 upset win in overtime against Baylor as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: The biggest question for UCLA regards the status of Jaime Jacquez who injured his ankle late in the game against the Gaels. He did take part in practice on Thursday and the reports are that he will take the court tonight. Even without Jacquez, the Bruins remain a veteran team with all the key pieces back from the group that reached the Final Four last season. This is a balanced team that ranks in the top-14 in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UCLA has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in March. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams outside the Pac-12. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored. North Carolina may be due for a letdown after pulling off the upset against the reigning National Champions. They made 49.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They also held the Bears to 34.6% shooting was tied for the best defensive performance in their last 15 contests. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 85 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. And while North Carolina held Marquette to just a 35.6% shooting percentage in the opening round of the Big Dance, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. The Tar heels have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on a neutral court — and they have fooled to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court when an underdog of three points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. UCLA has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (632) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (631). Best of luck for us — Frank.