Santa Clara is going to be looking to reverse some trends here, namely the fact they are 0-5 ATS their last five games overall and 0-6 ATS the L6 meetings with tonight’s opponent, UC Irvine (also 0-6 straight up!)

Now while the Broncos haven’t been covering, they’ve been (mostly) winning. Their only SU loss since Thanksgiving came here at home to San Jose State, 75-64, as an 8.5-point favorite here at home. 

They bounced back though by defeating Portland State 78-75, but as you already know did not cover the number. The Broncos were favored to win that game by 9.5 points.

Tonight, there really is no worry about winning and not covering as it’s a much shorter number vs. UC Irvine, a team that had dropped two in a row before winning at South Dakota on Saturday. I know it’s a shorter turnaround (between games) for Santa Clara, but I like them to get the job done tonight.

I do not think UC Irvine can continue to shoot 41% from three-point land nor do I believe their opponents will continue to shoot at a 28.8% clip from behind the arc. Lay the short number here. 10*

The Pelicans are looking to avenge a 21-point loss they suffered right here in Salt Lake City two nights ago. I think they do it. Yes, I did have the Pellies on Tuesday. But I don’t see them shooting just 39.8% overall again nor do I see them missing 23 of 27 three-point attempts as they did last time. 

The Pelicans had won seven in a row before losing to the Jazz. They still have the best record, point differential and net efficiency among Western Conference teams, so there’s no reason to panic after one bad loss. I believe this team is simply better than Utah.

The Jazz were supposed to be bottom-feeders this season, but have surprised with a winning record (16-14 overall). I’m still not convinced they can remain “above water” though. They are a bottom 10 team defensively, which is another reason I don’t see New Orleans’ poor shooting from Tuesday repeating itself here.

Another thing to note from Tuesday. Zion Williamson played only 26 minutes due to foul trouble. He still scored 26 points. 

New Orleans ranks third on the defensive end, so that’s a big edge. When off a SU loss as a favorite this year, they are a perfect 4-0 SU. Lay the small number. 10*

Now seems like a good time to buy the Clippers. They are healthy with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both playing and just dismantled the Celtics on Monday (much to my dismay) 113-93 here at home. With Leonard and George on the floor together, this team is +18.3 per 100 possessions with a 99.3 defensive rating. Those are the kinds of numbers that were expected from a team many predicted could win the NBA Finals this season.

On the other hand, the Timberwolves haven’t seemed right all season. They are without Karl-Anthony Towns and just got beat twice in Portland. This is now their fourth road game in the last six days.

The most encouraging sign for the Clippers is that Leonard just scored 25 points on 10 of 12 shooting against Boston, his best game in some time. 

I already mentioned the Clippers’ defensive rating when both Leonard and George are out there. I think that they are likely to hold the T’wolves in check tonight. Minny has shot 51.4% over its last five games. That’s simply not likely to continue, which means trouble considering they’ve lost three of those last five games anyway. The Clippers were the first team all year to hold Boston under 100 points.

The Timberwolves simply have not been a good team to bet on this season as they are only 10-17 ATS overall including 3-6 as a dog. 8*

It was a rough start to the season in Eugene as, at one point, Oregon was down to just six scholarship players. After six games, they were 2-4 straight up. But the ship seems to have been righted as the Ducks have covered four in a row, winning three of those straight up (only SU loss was to UCLA).

I expect the home team to win big tonight against UC Riverside, who will be playing its third straight road game and second in the last four days. The Highlanders beat Idaho 76-74 on Sunday, however did not cover the spread as six-point favorites. They are outclassed in this matchup.

So far, UC Riverside has faced two opponents inside the KenPom top 100, Colorado and Creighton. They lost those two games by a combined 45 points. Another double digit loss is on the way.

Oregon will enjoy a nice size advantage in tonight’s matchup. In fact, by being the tallest team in the country, they enjoy a size advantage in every matchup.  UC Riverside does not hit enough threes to counteract that. When facing D-I opponents, the Highlanders are barely hitting 30% from downtown.

The Ducks are 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season and allowing only 59.3 points/game at home. Their resurgence continues here. 10* 

Here’s a spread that I don’t get. New Orleans, who now owns the best point differential in the entire NBA, is only laying a bucket to Utah? I realize that the Jazz have exceeded expectations to start the 2022-23 campaign, but they’ve recently dropped two straight and 8 out of their last 11. The Pelicans have won their last seven games.

When these teams played back in October, the Pelicans went off as eight-point home favorites. The Jazz ended up winning 122-121 in overtime. However, that was a fluky game where both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson got hurt. 

Ingram remains out for New Orleans, but it hasn’t mattered as the Pelicans just beat the Suns twice. This team ranks 4th in the league in offensive efficiency and is going against a Jazz team that is bottom five in defensive efficiency. 

Utah gets a lot of its points via second chance opportunities, but New Orleans is clearly the better rebounding team here and will limit the number of offensive rebounds for the Jazz. 

Utah has been missing a number of key players recently, but that alone does not excuse the recent skid. I simply think the oddsmakers set a bad number for this matchup. The Jazz are likely to continue regressing while the Pelicans are a top five team in the league. Lay it! 10*

Boston is looking  to bounce back from what was just their third loss since November 4th. The Celtics took it on the chin Saturday, losing by 16 at Golden State. The trends support a play on them here as this season has seen the team go 4-1 SU off a loss and they are outscoring their opponents by 7.4 points/game in this spot.

This is a double revenge spot for the Celtics, who lost both meetings to the Clippers last year. Road favorites playing with double revenge have hit 61% since 2018-19 and road favorites off a loss vs. an opponent off a win are hitting 60% over the last decade.

The Clippers are healthy now, but even so, Boston is the better team here. No team can match the Celtics’ scoring differential or net efficiency this season. They also have a historically great offense while the Clippers are 27th in offensive efficiency. 

The Clips have been shooting better from three recently, but Boston has been elite at defending the three-point line. The Golden State result was the exception to that rule. 

No Al Horford tonight for Boston, but they are 6-1 with him out of the lineup. Also, while the Celtics are playing a fifth consecutive road game, the Clippers have been busy as well. Tonight marks their fourth game in six days and fifth in the last eight days. Kawhi Leonard, set to play for just the ninth time tonight, is on a minutes restriction and posting career-worst numbers. The Celtics are 5-0 SU this season on the front end of a back to back. 10*

Two teams trending in very different directions meet Monday night in Las Vegas with Arizona State taking on Creighton. 

The unranked Sun Devils have won seven in a row (6-1 ATS) since taking their only loss of the season, which was by a single point, in overtime, to Texas Southern. While the loss of Marcus Bagley (“stepped away from the team”) has hurt ASU a bit offensively, this team gets it done with defense. They are 17th in defensive efficiency at KenPom and top 10 in both 2-point and 3-point FG% defense. 

Meanwhile, #21 Creighton is reeling right now, having dropped four in a row after a 6-0 start. Worth monitoring is the status of Ryan Kalkbrenner, who missed the last game due to an illness. Without Kalkbrenner, the Bluejays lost 83-80 to BYU. His replacement in the starting lineup, Frederick King, had just four points and no rebounds in 18 minutes. BYU dominated them in the paint, 42-24. 

Even if Kalkbrenner is able to go tonight, I still like Arizona State. It’s pretty darn impressive - at least to me - that they are 9-1 straight up despite shooting only 30% from three-point range. Sooner or later, the three-point shooting will improve and then the Sun Devils will be even tougher to stop. 

Based on how this line has moved, it looks like Kalkbrenner is going to play. But still, I am taking the points in what should be a close game. Though three of Creighton’s four straight losses ended up close (five points or less), they really didn’t look good in any of them. ASU’s defense carries them to another cover and possibly another SU win. 10* 

Marquette’s only game over the last eight days was a 90-78 win over NC Central. They did not cover the large 19.5-point spread. Prior to that the Golden Eagles turned in a monster performance against Baylor (won 96-70) but then lost in overtime to Wisconsin (80-77). They come into Sunday at 7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS overall.

Pretty similar deal with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have played just once over the last eight days and they failed to cover in a tighter than expected 81-75 victory over Boston U. Before that they upset Michigan State, then lost outright to Syracuse, both here at home. 

So it seems like a pretty even matchup Sunday at 4:30 ET on ESPN2. But it’s pretty telling that Marquette is favored. They are the better team. In terms of offensive efficiency, the teams have pretty similar ratings (28th for Marquette, 26th for ND). But defensively, Marquette is far ahead (67 vs. 174). 

Look for the Golden Eagles to do damage from three-point land. That’s where they get roughly one-third of their scoring. They average 9.3 makes per game. The Notre Dame defense is allowing 35% three-point shooting for the season, which is outside the Top 200.

Let’s go back to that final score vs. Boston U. ND won 81-75. The Irish are 0-3 ATS this season after a game where they scored 80 or more points. They gave up 46 points in the second half to the Terriers. Marquette was almost up 30 in the second half of their last game. 10*

The Bulls have a key advantage coming into this Saturday night tilt and that’s they’re rested while Dallas just lost a heartbreaker last night at home to Milwaukee.  

Now the Bulls have been woefully inconsistent all year with their longest win streak at just two games. They did win last time out, which was Wednesday, beating Washington 110-107. But the Bulls did not cover, dropping them to 0-4 ATS L4 games.

But they did lead most of the way against Washington, only briefly trailing a couple of times after the first quarter. That was a home game for the Bulls, as is this. I’ll point out that the Bulls have played a pretty tough schedule to this point.

Going from home to the road, in the second night of a back to back, off two straight one-point games is just a terrible situation for these Mavericks. Especially after they were outscored 33-21 in the fourth quarter last night.  This team has also been inconsistent and them going 10 of 24 from the free throw line last night should give you pause.

On the road, the Mavs are only 4-8 SU and 3-7 against the spread. Last night was also a late game, which doesn’t help. 10*

This game is being played in Atlanta (State Farm Arena) as part of the 2022 “Holiday Hoopsgiving” event. 

It’s not been a great start to the year for Loyola, who is 4-5 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. But I do think this is a good time to back the Ramblers, plus the points, as they are facing a Clemson team due for some shooting regression after sinking 50% (or better) of their FG attempts in four straight games. 

Clemson has just two losses and both were close games. They lost by two at South Carolina (their only true road game so far) and then by three to Iowa in the Emerald Coast Classic (which was played down in Florida).  But the Tigers have had their fair share of close victories as well. Beating Penn State required two overtimes and earlier this week they escaped a game with Towson, winning by just five.

Loyola started this season ranked in the Top 60 over at KenPom but have now dropped outside the Top 100. Like I said it’s a good buy low spot as this team is definitely better than what its shown. This was a Sweet 16 team last March, much to the delight of Sister Jean (now 103 years old). 

Clemson only beat Cal (who is horrible) by eight.  Loyola has had some close losses and this will be only the second time they’ve been an underdog so far.  Not sure I’m ready to buy Clemson just yet, despite its 8-2 record. They won’t continue to hit 42% from three, moving forward.  Take the points. 10*

Gonzaga is now just 2-7 against the spread this year, including 0-5 the last five games. I played against the Zags in their last game, which saw them barely get by Kent State, here at home. The market remains too high on this team and I’ll take the points against Friday with Washington coming to Spokane.

Washington is off a 73-63 win over Colorado that squared away their Pac 12 record at 1-1. The Huskies have already beaten the “other” top WCC team, that being St. Mary’s, and did so in impressive fashion by going to a neutral site and prevailing 68-64 as a 10-point underdog. Overall, the Huskies are 7-2 straight up (better record than Gonzaga!) and have covered four of their last five games. 

Now Franck Kepnang is done for the season for Washington, due to a knee injury, which is a major blow. But this team plays terrific defense, which will keep them in a lot of games like this one. Huskies’ opponents are shooting only 26% from three. 

They are also great at forcing turnovers, notable because Gonzaga comes in having given the ball away on 19.4% of its possessions this season. The Zags have also been bad when it comes to fouling. Washington already gets to the FT line at a decent rate and is shooting 75% there. 

An in-state rivalry, this game means more to UW, who has lost six straight times to the Zags. I expect the underdog to hang around in this one. Take the points. 10* 

Cleveland is having itself an awesome start to the season with a top five record in the league, not to mention a top three point difference and net efficiency rating. I expect the Cavaliers’ early season success to continue on Friday when they host the Sacramento Kings.

Now the Kings are also somewhat of an early season success story as they are in the top six out West, not a place anyone is accustomed to seeing them. But defensively, they have issues. They’re a bottom 10 team defensively and still give up 116 points/game. 

When they went to Milwaukee on Wednesday, the Kings allowed 126 points and lost by double digits. That’s not the way they wanted to start this six-game road trip.

The Cavs, on the other hand, are the league’s best defensive team. They are also 13-4 ATS as a favorite this season and 10-1 ATS at home. 

None of Cleveland’s last six points have been able to score more than 102 points. Jarrett Allen being back really helps on the defensive end of the floor. We’ll have to monitor two questionable players - De’Aaron Fox for Sacramento and Donovan Mitchell for Cleveland - but at the end of the day, the Cavs’ edge defensively will be too much for the Kings to overcome. Lay the points. 10*

Utah has won three in a row and covered four in a row to get to 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. Look for the Utes to win handily tonight against a Jacksonville State team that’s coming off some close calls and not really used to this level of competition.

Jacksonville State last played on Saturday. They went on the road and beat E Tenn St 63-61 as a 2.5 point underdog. Leading the way was Skyelar Potter with 27 points. He’s the team’s leading scorer. Notable, however, were two things. The Gamecocks really benefited from E Tenn St going 8 of 26 from three-point range. There was also a +10 advantage in free throw makes and attempts, a rarity for the ROAD team in College Basketball.

Prior to beating E Tenn St, the Gamecocks had played three other true road games. They’d lost all of them and were blown out twice, losing by 18 at New Mexico and by 42 at Alabama. In the KenPom ratings, Utah is higher than all previous Jacksonville State opponents with the exception of ‘Bama. 

Jacksonville State needs to hit their threes to have any chance. But Utah is holding opponents to 22.5% shooting from behind the arc this season and allows fewer than one point per possession overall. Remember this game is at elevation, which should make it tough on the JSU shooters.

Utah has gotten off to a 2-0 start in Pac 12 play, beating Arizona and Washington State. If they can beat Arizona by 15 here at home, they should be able to win by the necessary margin here tonight. 8*

San Jose State just got absolutely waxed by Arkansas over the weekend, losing by 41. After taking a shellacking like that from a Top 10 team, I worry about the Spartans’ psyche heading into this game against Cal State Bakersfield where the oddsmakers are asking them to win by a decent margin. 

Now things didn’t go so well for CS Bakersfield in their last game either. They lost to Dartmouth by 25. That was just the second double digit loss for the Roadrunners though and the first came at Utah. 

CS Bakersfield was just 3 of 12 from three in that last game. Expect them to improve on that number here as SJSU is allowing teams to make 37.3% from behind the arc.

The Spartans are also a bad free throw shooting team (64.3%), which is yet another reason to want to fade them as a favorite. 

So in a battle of two teams off blowout losses, I’ll grab the points. It’s a low total, so with points likely at a premium it seems wise to be on the dog. The number has even dropped a bit, but there’s still plenty of value here. 10*

Love the spot here for St. Joe’s heading into this “Big 5” matchup with Philly rival Temple on Tuesday. The Hawks just suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson while Temple is coming off three consecutive wins/covers. That’s opened up some real value on the underdog in this matchup.

St. Joe’s was a 12-point favorite when they lost to Fairleigh Dickinson. They were blitzed, giving up 97 points as FDU somehow shot an incomprehensible 57.6% from the field including 12 of 24 from three. I don’t see Temple doing that here.

While the Hawks have lost three of the last four games overall, including both when they were favored (also vs. USF), they do hold an outright win (as 5.5-point dogs) over another city rival (Penn) during that same stretch. 

While Temple has covered three in a row as a favorite, they were 0-3 ATS laying points prior to the current streak. Just don’t think the Owls are a team built to win by margin, at least not consistently. 

A key thing to watch in this game is that Temple really struggles to defend the pick and roll. St. Joe’s is a top 60 PNR offense. Take the points. 10*

Interesting matchup here as Kent State is a perfect 7-0 against the spread while Gonzaga is just 1-6 ATS its last eight games.

I’m assuming that at some point the market will catchup with these two teams. But I’m not sure it has here. Gonzaga is coming off a major gag job against Baylor last Friday where it blew a seven-point lead in the final 93 seconds. 

I suppose there is an argument, coming off a loss like that, the Zags will be fired up and looking to take their frustrations out. But do we really think they’ll be THAT motivated by a visit from Kent State, after losing a rematch of the Title Game from two years ago and a four-run down in Portland?

The underdog, on the other hand, should be really fired up and ready to go. This is a team that only lost by five at Houston (49-44) and its only two losses are by a combined seven points.

Yes, Gonzaga’s ability to score is always a concern. But Kent State is 12th nationally in 2-point FG% defense and top six in forcing turnovers. The Golden Flashes could have pulled the outright upset at Houston had it not been for some woeful shooting from three-point range (6 of 29) and Sincere Carry (who was 2 of 22). Take the points. 10* 

The Celtics are an amazing 15-2 straight up over their last 17 games, but I think we’re catching them in a good spot (to fade) here in Toronto Monday night. This is the second night of a back to back for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, who defeated Brooklyn last night by a score of 103-92.

Teams off a win the previous day, playing in Toronto, are just 14-24 ATS (36.8%). 

Leading scorer Pascal Siakam is back for the Raptors, but he’s not the only one that turned in a big game Saturday against Orlando. O.G. Anunoby matched his season-high with 32 points in that game as the Raptors won convincingly, 121-108 and covered the spread as 11-point favorites. 

Boston has yet to lose in the second night of a back to back this season, which won’t continue. They are without their two best defensive players right now, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams. Shockingly, they still held the Nets to just 92 points on Sunday, a season-low for a Celtics’ opponent.

But don’t expect a repeat of that here. Toronto shot 56% as a team against Orlando. The Raptors are rested and ready here and at home where they are 9-2 SU and +5.5 points/game. Take the points. 10*

The Lakers seem to be back on track. They just beat the Bucks on Friday, which was their seventh win in the last nine games. What was most impressive about beating the Bucks was that LA scored 133 points against the top rated defense in the league. Anthony Davis had 44 points while LeBron went for 28.

Washington is trending in the opposite direction right now. They’ve lost two straight and five of their last six. In each of those last six games, the Wizards have allowed 110 or more points. They went off as four-point favorites in the 117-116 loss to Charlotte on Friday.

The Wiz have not been blown out during this recent downturn, but there is no denying the fact they are trending in the wrong direction. They were down double digits for most of the second half against Charlotte after surrendering 72 first half points.

The Lakers, a top 10 team defensively, have posted their two highest scoring games of the season in the last week. 

Washington doesn’t do a good job at defending the three (37% allowed) and the Lakers should also own the paint in this matchup. I expect another big offensive night from LeBron and company against a team that is just 3-7 ATS when favored this season. 10*

St. John’s is still unbeaten, one of 14 teams in the country that can still say that, but I believe they’ll go down for the first time Sunday in Ames. Iowa State’s only loss was to one of the very best teams in the country (UConn), at a neutral site, and has continued to be an incredible story after going 2-22 SU two years ago.

Remember that the Cyclones have already defeated Villanova and North Carolina this season. They come in off a win over North Dakota - where they failed to cover as big 24-point favorites - but still won 63-44. Although laying points, we don’t need a big win here. 

This is the final game of the Big East-Big 12 Battle. So far, the Big East holds a 5-4 head to head edge after a couple of wins on Saturday (Villanova over Oklahoma, Xavier over W Virginia). But the real interesting thing is that the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up so far in this event, also covering the spread seven times.

St. John’s hasn’t really played anybody and this is their first true road game of the season. I’d say some of their numbers are misleading due to the lack of competition. The Red Storm did not cover in either of the last two wins, against Long Island or Niagara.

Iowa State is the better defensive team in this matchup. They are surrendering an average of only 56.3 points/game thus far and only 44.7 here in Ames! Look for the ‘Clones to hand the Johnnies their first loss of the season and cover the spread in the process. 10* 

UNLV is undefeated (7-0). Only 14 other teams can still say that. The Runnin’ Rebels are allowing 57.7 points/game and have been off for a week. Look for them to roll tonight at San Diego.

San Diego has lost three times, twice by just two points. But those losses were to Utah Tech and Nicholls State, hardly the same level of competition they’ll face tonight.

The Rebels haven’t been the most prolific offensive team, but they are turning opponents over more than any team in the country. That leads to extra points that are critical when needing to cover as a favorite. They also don’t foul much.

San Diego is letting teams shoot 48% so the UNLV offensive effort should be better than normal tonight.

Not only are the Torerors 0 for their last 5 (straight up) as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points, but they are 5-24 SU L29 as a dog! UNLV is far superior than what this line suggests. 10*

Charleston has gotten off to a nice start at 7-1, which includes winning their home tournament. Now three of their wins (Richmond, Va Tech and Kent St) were all by three points. But remember that the Cougars’ only loss, to North Carolina, had a misleading 102-86 final score. The Cougs led that game into the second half. 

Now this will be Charleston’s first time leaving home since that loss to North Carolina and also their first time laying double digits this season. But I think they’ll be up for the “challenge” against The Citadel, who may be looking ahead to their own game vs. UNC in 10 days. 

The Citadel was blown out at Butler earlier this year, losing by 47. Since then, they’ve won three of four with the only loss by three points. But the level of competition has not been strong and I believe the Bulldogs are severely outclassed here. 

Charleston likes to play fast as they are inside the Top 50 nationally adjusted tempo. That’s going to be a problem for The Citadel, who only averages 67.7 points on 43% shooting when you remove non-DI competition. 

While the teams haven’t met since 2016, this is a bit of a local rivalry (campuses just 2 miles apart) and Charleston has captured the L10 meetings. They’ll look to win in blowout fashion here. 8* 

Delaware is only 3-3 but all three losses occurred away from home, one of them at Duke. In fact, this will be just the second home game for the Blue Hens with the first one being the season opener, which was a 78-54 win over non-DI Wilmington. Off the loss at Penn Sunday, I look for Delaware to bounce back tonight.

Cornell makes its two straight Ivy League opponents for Delaware, but the Big Red are not as good as Penn. They do play faster and that has led to 87.4 points/game during a five-game win streak. But those five wins have been against SUNY-Delhi, St. Francis (PA), Ithaca, Canisius and Monmouth. Not exactly a “murderer’s row” there. 

We’ve already seen this line tick up a bit and I completely agree with the move. I know Delaware struggled to get stops against Penn and that’s concerning when turning around and facing an offense like Cornell. But this being a home game is huge for the Blue Hens. 

They’ve won 16 of their last 24 games here and are also 22-6 straight up their last 28 games as a favorite. With such a short number, that seems worth mentioning. 

This is back to back road games for Cornell and while there’s been nearly a week between games, the Big Red simply can’t continue to shoot as well as they have. Lay the points. 10*

Things are not looking good in Minnesota right now. Following three straight losses where the team posted a -11.9 net rating, the Timberwolves are a game below .500 and without Karl-Anthony Towns. 

But should the T’wolves be a dog at home against Memphis, who is still without Desmond Bane? I don’t think so. Dillon Brooks is also questionable to play tonight for the Grizzlies.

When these teams met in Memphis 19 days ago, the Grizzlies had Bane in the lineup and closed as only four-point favorites at home. They won 114-103 but I don’t think they should be laying a similar number, on the road, in tonight’s rematch.

The experiment with KAT and Rudy Gobert had not been working for Minnesota. So perhaps, short-term, KAT’s absence might be a positive. With one fewer big on the floor, the offense might open up and the T’wolves do turn the ball over less when KAT is not out there.

This will be the third time this year that Minnesota enters a game off three straight losses. They are 2-0 ATS the previous two times. Take the points against a Memphis team that is just 2-7 ATS on the road. 10*

Miami treated me kindly on Sunday at UCF as they were my 10* Game of the Month and delivered (just barely) an ATS win. The Hurricanes won by 2 (66-64) as 1.5-point favorites. Back in Coral Gables, I’m expecting a much larger margin of victory tonight as “The U” hosts Rutgers as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge.

The Hurricanes brought back a ton of experience from a group that made it to the Elite Eight last March. Jim Larranaga also did a good job in the transfer portal and the result is he has a team with four double digit scorers, led by Isaiah Wong, who is the team leader in points, assists and steals. 

This will be Rutgers’ first true road game this season. They’ve already lost on a neutral floor to Temple, which is the only game this season where they weren’t at home. Miami not only has the win at UCF, but also a neutral court victory over Providence. They’ve won the first four home games by an average of 19 points.

Rutgers has been good defensively, but lacks experience and that’s what has me worried for them heading into tonight’s contest. 

KenPom has Miami as a Top 27 team in the country in offensive efficiency. Rutgers has not faced anyone nearly as good as the Hurricanes so far, so expect them to fail their first road test. 10*

Philadelphia has not only covered three straight, but also eight of their last nine games. Joel Embiid is now back in the lineup and he just went off for 30-8-7 in the team’s 104-101 triumph over Atlanta on Monday. 

After that one-game stop at home, the Sixers are back out on the road where they’ll face another top Eastern Conference team. Cleveland has been a pleasant surprise thus far, ranking second in the East in both point differential and net efficiency. 

But the Sixers are right behind the Cavs in those regards and are also one of only three teams with a higher defensive efficiency rating than Cleveland. 

After getting off to such a great start, the Cavs are only 5-5 SU in their L10 games. They’ve ruled out both Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love tonight, the former being a far more significant loss. Over the last two seasons, their record without Allen in the lineup is just 10-20. That includes 1-3 so far this season. 

I recognize Philly is without James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. But they’ve got Embiid and he should be the difference maker tonight. Take the points with the 76ers. 10*

The Clippers beat Indiana on Sunday, but are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. So we’ll fade this short-handed team in Portland tonight as the Blazers are a lot better than the Pacers, despite losses in five of the last six games. 

Portland is still in the top six of the West, right behind the Clippers, with one fewer win due to playing one fewer game. 

Now Damian Lillard is out for the Blazers. So there will be a lot of star power missing in this one. But Jerami Grant is picking up the slack with 29 points in the last game, which followed a career-high 44 in a win over the Knicks Friday.

In addition to no George and no Leonard, the Clippers are also missing Luke Kennard and John Wall. They won’t be getting another game from Ivica Zubac like they did Sunday. Zubac is averaging a double double, but the 31 points and 29 rebounds vs. Indiana was a fairly ridiculous effort.

Portland is 3-0 ATS when coming off a double digit loss. 10*

Iowa should roll here in what promises to be another easy win for the Big 10 against the ACC. The Hawkeyes come in at 5-1 on the season and, as per usual, are one of the more lethal offensive teams in the country. KenPom has them seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Now some might make the case that the Hawkeyes have been trending down ever since their big 16-point win at Seton Hall. They did blow out Omaha by 36 (hanging 100 in the process), however then only managed to beat Clemson (another ACC team) by three points and then lost to TCU, getting held to a season-low 66 points.

But Georgia Tech is not TCU. The Yellow Jackets are outside the Top 120 at KenPom and were blown out by Marquette, losing on a neutral floor by 24. They also lost to Utah. 

Every GT game with an O/U line has stayed Under, but that figures to probably change after tonight. In three previous games here in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes have scored 100+ twice and 89 in the other game. 

Just too much offense from Iowa in this one for the underdog to stay within the number. Georgia Tech is shooting below 30% from three, so I just don’t see how they can stay close. This team barely won at Georgia State. Iowa has covered 15 of the last 19 times it has been a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. 8* 

There are a couple of Big 10-ACC Challenge matchups today where I think the Big 10 team should roll. This is definitely one of them as Maryland faces a Louisville team that could be the biggest disaster in the entire country right now.

Louisville is not just 0-6 straight up, its worst start in over 80 years, but also 0-6 against the spread. They are one of just eight teams left that hasn’t covered a single spread. The season started with three straight one-point losses. Things have only gotten worse for the Cardinals since then. They lost to Arkansas, Texas Tech and Cincinnati by a combined 77 points. None of the games ended up closer than 19. 

Maryland is undefeated (6-0) and on par with those last three teams that Louisville has faced. Actually, the Terrapins are substantially better than Cincinnati. KenPom also has them rated above Texas Tech. They are ranked 22nd in the latest AP Poll, which is in line with KenPom.

The Terps six wins have come by an average of 21.3 points/game and they are allowing just 61.3 points/game. All six wins have been by at least 16 points and they are 5-1 ATS. They have averaged 93 points themselves in the last three games and have beaten the likes of Miami FL and St. Louis. 

This should be another long night for Louisville, who struggles to take care of the basketball. 10*

We’ve got two 5-1 teams from the Sunshine State squaring off here. Miami FL is looking to avenge a six-point loss from last year. That previous matchup took place in Coral Gables and the Hurricanes were three-point favorites. You may recall that the ‘Canes ended up making it all the way to the Elite 8.

That loss last year took place in just the second game of the season. Despite the rematch, Miami is again a slight favorite to win here. This is the first true road game for Jim Larranga’s team, which has looked good so far with the exception of an 18-point loss to Maryland.

UCF lost to UNC Asheville (98-95) in the season opener. Since then, the Knights have stormed back to win and cover five in a row. They won a tournament in the Bahamas, then came back home to defeat Evansville by 20 earlier this week.

But this is a tough matchup for UCF. Miami has better guard play and I think UCF’s defensive numbers are a bit fraudulent.  The Knights were able to slow down Santa Clara in the Bahamas. But Miami as the most efficient offense UCF has seen this year.

The Canes are 14-7 ATS L21 road games and 12-4 ATS L16 against teams that allowed fewer than 64.5 points/game. Lay the short number. 10*

Butler and North Carolina State will wrap up the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament Friday night with fifth place on the line.

Butler was crushed in its first game here, losing 71-45 to Tennessee (was close for a half). But the Bulldogs bounced back with a 75-70 win over BYU last night. NC State got a lucky cover in its first game here (thanks to a last-second three), an 80-74 loss to Kansas. The Wolfpack then surprised me a bit by defeating Dayton 76-64 as a three-point underdog last night.

Looking at NC State as a whole, they are overly reliant on three-pointers to score and weak on the interior defensively.

Even in the blowout loss to Tennessee, Butler did a good job defensively, allowing only 1.03 points/possession.

The transfer portal has given Butler a key edge here. They now have Manny Bates, who chose to leave Raleigh. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Bates be the difference tonight. 10*

The nightcap in the Battle 4 Atlantis features #22 Tennessee taking on Butler. Need I remind you that the Volunteers have already lost a game this year, a real stunner to Colorado. The final score there was 78-66, a game the Vols were supposed to win by 16 points.

Butler also has a loss, on the road to Penn State, but I think that the Bulldogs’ offense has looked great so far. They’ve put up 89 or more points three times for Thad Matta, who is back here after becoming the winningest coach in Ohio State history.

Matta has five double digit scorers right now and Butler is top five in the country in both eFG% and two-point FG%. I know that Tennessee is solid defensively (#3 in efficiency per KenPom), but the Bulldogs will find a way to score enough to cover this generous spread.

Tennessee is also turning the ball over more than you’d like to see. The team’s point guard from last season, Kennedy Chandler, is now in the NBA. The Vols will obviously look to shoot a high-volume of threes here, but the only made 27% against Colorado, notable because that’s the only time so far they’ve played away from Knoxville.

In fact, Rick Barnes’ team is shooting just 37% overall from the field. I think the favorite struggles to score here and that leads to, at the very least, an ATS loss for UT. This is what I’d consider to be a “generous” number. 10*

The Final of the Maui Invitational should be a good one as we’ve got two Top 15 teams set to do battle - #10 Creighton and #14 Arizona. Both teams remain undefeated with Creighton 6-0 and Arizona 5-0. But, if I can state the obvious, someone is heading for their first loss here. 

Backing Creighton yesterday paid off for me as the Bluejays handed Arkansas its first loss of the season. As I said, that was a good matchup for Creighton as the Razorbacks are not particularly good at shooting threes and Creighton takes good care of the basketball.

It also helps that the Bluejays have shot the lights out thus far. They are making 52% of their field goal attempts thus far, which probably won’t continue. They shot 58.5% yesterday vs. Arkansas. 

Arizona does a good job at defending the interior, which is where Creighton finds a lot of its offensive success.

Creighton’s win was impressive yesterday and I certainly enjoyed it. But Arizona beating San Diego State by 17 was even more impressive. Talk about offense. The Wildcats scored 87 points yesterday and that was their lowest scoring game of the season! Three times they’ve hit 100! I’m laying the points. 10*

Two unbeaten 4-0 teams will tip off the Battle 4 Atlantis Wednesday afternoon, but there’s obviously a big gulf in class between #3 Kansas and unranked North Carolina State. 

The big story here is that Bill Self will be on the Jayhawks’ bench for the first time this season, after serving a self-imposed four-game suspension. I think that, and the close call against Southern Utah (just a six-point win), will have KU properly motivated for this tournament contest.

Remember that Kansas already holds a win over Duke in the Champions Classic. Jalen Wilson is leading the team with 24.5 points/game and has set career highs in points each of the last two games, including 33 vs. Southern Utah.

This Battle 4 Atlantis tournament marks the first time NC State has left home this season. They are really diving into the deep end here after facing Austin Peay, Campbell, FIU and Elon all in the comfortable confines of Raleigh. The Wolfpack like to take a lot of threes, but so far Kansas has held its opponents to 25.5% from behind the arc.

NC State, projected for a 10th place finish in the ACC this year, is going to struggle defensively in this matchup. Particular when it comes to preventing Kansas’ wings from driving to the hoop. Since the start of 2020-21, the Wolfpack have covered the number just one-third of the time (20-40 ATS) and are 12-26 ATS vs. winning teams. Lay it. 10* 

Creighton and Arkansas are two teams coming off impressive wins Monday in Maui. The Bluejays beat Texas Tech 76-65 while the Razorbacks smoked hapless Louisville 80-54. These two teams are now a combined 9-0 straight up to start the year with Creighton at 5-0 and Arkansas 4-0. 

Only one can remain unbeaten after Tuesday, obviously. While Arkansas’ margin of victory was greater on Monday, I’d argue Creighton’s win was more impressive, given who they beat. This could also be the spot where not having five-star recruit Nick Smith Jr (listed as “day to day”) finally catches up with the Razorbacks. 

The biggest area of concern for Creighton is defending the three-point line. But fortunately for them, Arkansas does not make, or even take, a ton of threes. The Hogs are shooting just 30% from deep through four games and average only five makes per game.

Where Arkansas thrives is forcing turnovers. But Creighton is well-suited to counteract that as they don’t turn it over much, ranking 13th in the country in TO rate. 

With four double digit scorers, Creighton is shooting the ball exceptionally well thus far. Look for them to prevail in this battle of Top 10 teams. 10*

This is all about which team is at full strength  and which team isn’t. Brooklyn has Kyrie Irving back and looks ready to make a move in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia won’t have Joel Embiid, James Harden or Tyrese Maxey tonight. That’s their three best players! 

As a result, I’m laying the points with the Nets tonight. In Irving’s return Sunday, they shot 60% from the field. Ben Simmons even had 22 points (a season-high).

Irving had 14. Durant had 26, so he’s scored at least 25 in all 17 games this season. There’s just too many options here for Philly to slow down. 

The Sixers have played 97 possessions this season without Embiid, Harden and Maxey on the floor. They’ve been dominated during that time, getting outscored by almost 16 points. Both the offensive and defensive numbers take a major hit.

This game could get ugly in a hurry. It should be an easy double digit win for the visitors. 10*

The Finals of the Hall of Fame Classic (played in Kansas City) go down Tuesday afternoon with 5-0 San Francisco taking on 3-1 Wichita State. Both teams won their semifinal games in impressive fashion yesterday. USF knocked off Northern Iowa 75-69 while Wichita State beat Grand Canyon 55-43. 

We’ve already seen a change in favorite with the line moving in San Francisco’s direction. Considering the Dons failed to cover against Northern Iowa (were -7), that’s pretty interesting, but I also happen to agree with the line move. 

The Dons like to play fast, much faster than Wichita State would like, and they take a lot of threes. They were 14 of 36 from behind the arc yesterday. The fact they were behind by 11 entering halftime may not sound all that encouraging, but the way they stormed back in the second half was. Also, while the Dons do love to shoot the three, you’ve got to expect they’ll make more than 11 two-point field goals in this game (that’s how many they made vs. N Iowa).

Wichita State is rightly earning praise following wins over Richmond and Grand Canyon, but let’s not forget this team also lost - as a 16-point favorite - at home to Alcorn State. I just don’t see the Shockers (57, 56, 55 points L3 games) scoring enough to stick with San Francisco this afternoon. 

Teams are shooting just 22% from three against Wichita State this season. There’s simply no way that can continue. San Francisco is the ideal team to send the Shockers’ 3-point defense into negative regression. Look out for Khalil Shabazz, who had 24 points yesterday for the Dons. 10* 

We head to Maui for our third and final College Hoops selection for the night. San Diego State is a favorite here over Ohio State and I expect the Aztecs to cover the number here.

San Diego State is a team that I’ve played before. The last time the Aztecs took the court, I laid a similar number (on the road) to Stanford and they easily came out ahead, 74-62. 

The Aztecs are outstanding defensively as they were a year ago. Last year they ended up #2 in the country at KenPom in defensive efficiency. So far this season, they are eighth. 

In terms of experience, SDSU has the edge here with four of last year’s five starters returning. They also added a key piece via the transfer portal with Darrion Trammell, who had averaged 19.5 points the first two games before going 0 for 5 from the field against Stanford. I’d expect a bounce back from Trammell tonight.

Ohio State had to hit the transfer portal hard after losing the likes of E.J. Liddell and Malakai Branham. Holden, Likekele and McNeil have all proven that they can be key contributors, but the relatively young Buckeyes have yet to face an opponent that’s this challenging defensively. Lay the points. 10*

Utah takes on Georgia Tech here as part of the Fort Myers Tipoff. These teams are in the event’s “Beach Division.” Every team from the “Beach Division” was successful in games vs. teams from the “Palms Division” with one exception, that being Utah, who lost 65-55 to Sam Houston State as a 10-point favorite.

As a result of that embarrassing defeat, expect the Utes to come out motivated tonight. First off, SHSU had previously beaten Oklahoma before beating the Utes. The other big takeaway from that game is how SHSU, a team that was making only 50% of its free throws, went 12 of 14 from the line against Utah. 

Utah is usually pretty sound defensively. They’re allowing a FG% of just 34.0 and 53.7 points/game. I don’t think it will be very difficult to guard a Georgia Tech team that is only averaging five made three-pointers per game thus far.

The Yellow Jackets are 3-0 following an 18-point win over Northern Illinois last week. But this is easily their toughest test yet and being so limited offensively, I expect the underdog to struggle. 

One of the tallest teams in the entire country, look for Utah to dominate the boards in this matchup. We’re getting a cheap price on the Utes because of the previous result. Take advantage. 10* 

This is the Final of the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. #16 Virginia upset #5 Baylor to get here while #19 Illinois rallied back to beat #8 UCLA. Whoever wins this thing is going to have a nice mark on their resume.

I like Illinois to win. Here’s the thing. Virginia just can’t possibly hope to shoot the ball as well here as they did vs. Baylor. 

The Cavaliers made 55.6% of their overall field goal attempts on Friday and were 9 of 14 from downtown. They also attempted 35 free throws and made 27. 

Illinois, I believe, has the edge here both on the inside and from behind the arc. Terrance Shannon Jr, a transfer from Texas Tech, is the player to watch. He scored 29 points against UCLA and was 8 of 9 from three.

Virginia has been uncharacteristically bad at defending the three-point line so far. They rank outside the top 300 in 3pt% allowed. Illinois scored 51 pts in the second half vs. UCLA after going for 103 against Monmouth and 86.5 PPG in the two contests before that. 10* 

We all understand that this is the end of a four-game road trip for Minnesota, who can now say they have won back to back games for the first time in November. 

Normally, the end of a trip like this can be a bad spot. But that’s not really the case tonight for the Timberwolves, who have had the last two days off. They also had two days off prior to beating Orlando 126-108 Weds night.

The opposition played last night, and for Philadelphia it was a hard-fought win here at home vs. Milwaukee. But the Sixers didn’t come out unscathed. Already missing James Harden from the lineup, they saw Tyrese Maxey go down with a foot injury on Friday.

So even though this will be their fourth straight game at home and Minnesota’s fourth straight road game, the situation is MUCH worse here for Philly. 

The T’wolves have posted a 127.5 offensive efficiency rating in the last two games, shooting 54% overall and 40% from three. They are in much better shape than the Sixers heading into Saturday. 10*

Lots of neutral site tournament action in Friday College Hoops, but here we’ve got Indiana traveling to Xavier for a true road game as part of the Gavitt Games. I think the Hoosiers are - by far - the better team here and will cover the spread without much trouble. 

Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman are hardly what I’d call “high-caliber” opposition, but those first two IU opponents didn’t stand a chance, losing 35 and 52 respectively. The Hoosiers have shot almost 60% from the field so far and Mike Woodson has a deep team here. 

Many believe Woodson’s team is going to win the Big 10 this year and I’m not going to disagree with that assessment, especially with what we’re also seeing at the defensive end (allowing just .664 points/possession). 

Sean Miller is back at Xavier for a second stint. But I’m not really high on this Musketeers team despite starting the year with three double digit wins (over Morgan State, Montana and Fairfield). There’s no way they will continue to shoot 45.5% from three.

First-team All Big East selection Colby Jones sat out against Fairfield due to an ankle injury suffered in practice. They didn’t need him in the last game, but Jones would be a significant loss going against a team like Indiana. 10*

I’m expecting this first game in the U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam to be a blowout. All signs point the favorite (Drake) winning very big.

About the only positive thing I can say about Buffalo right now is they are playing fast. The Bulls are listed at #1 in adjusted tempo over at KenPom. However, being that they are so inexperienced, the fast pace has led to a lot of turnovers and poor defense. Through three games, UB is 313th in turnovers while allowing 58% shooting from inside the arc (311th) and they are sending opponents to the free throw line at a very high rate as well. 

The result is a 1-2 start with nearly 90 points/game allowed. After beating Colgate by a single point, the Bulls have lost by 35 to James Madison (at home) and by 20 to UConn.

Drake is a team that can take advantage of Buffalo’s deficiencies. The Bulldogs should have beaten Wofford by more than they did on Monday. They won by only eight because Wofford made six more threes. It was a pretty woeful 5 of 24 for Drake from behind the arc. 

But they shot 68% on two-point attempts. Remember what I said earlier about Buffalo’s poor interior defense. Drake doesn’t turn the ball over much either. They’ve scored 80 points against two teams that like to play slow. Here, against a sloppy, inexperienced team, the Bulldogs should put a ton of points on the board and cover the number rather easily. 10* 

Golden State is just 6-8 to start the year, but they showed signs of life on Monday when they blew out San Antonio at home by a score of 132-95. I like them here on the road against a banged up Suns team.

Count on the Warriors taking this one seriously. It’s a chance to beat their main division rival and the team that has had the best record in the Western Conference over the last two years.

This is also a huge revenge spot as the Warriors were blown out by 29 points when they faced the Suns earlier this year. 

Phoenix has dropped two in a row coming into tonight, first to Orlando (114-97) and then to Miami (113-112). Overall, they are 2-4 L6 games. Two starters have been out - Chris Paul and Cam Johnson. Only Paul (questionable) has a chance of seeing the floor tonight. The defense has really fallen off a cliff with those two out and while Paul’s replacement Cam Payne did look good in a couple of the games, he went 4 of 17 against the Heat.

Golden State’s starting five has looked excellent of late and Steph Curry should be ready to go after playing a season-low 27 minutes against the Spurs. All signs point to this being a “statement game” for the Warriors. 10*

This is a revenge game for Chicago. They lost 115-111 at home to New Orleans exactly one week ago. That result was followed by another loss for the Bulls as they went down 126-103 at the hands of Denver on Sunday. The team has now dropped four of its last five.

But this time the Bulls catch the Pelicans in the second game of a back to back. New Orleans was kind to me last night with a 113-102 win over Memphis. I laid the short price as the Grizzlies were without one of their two best players (Desmond Bane). That was obviously a wise decision. 

The Pelicans didn’t even need Zion Williamson to win last night. He sat, but six teammates finished in double figures led by 30 points from CJ McCollum (who I predicted would have a big game). As a team, NO went 18 of 38 from three-point range.

I don’t see the Pelicans shooting as well tonight, even if Williamson returns, as they went just 3 of 19 on three-pointers the last game vs. Chicago. 

That previous meeting was closely contested with 14 lead changes and nine ties. Now, Chicago is better rested (just two games in last seven days) while New Orleans played last night. A big problem for the Pelicans has been interior defense, so that’s an area the Bulls need to attack here. 10* Chicago

A “mid-major” laying points on the road against a Power 5 Conference team speaks volumes and in the case of San Diego State-Stanford, the number is more than justified. SDSU is no “ordinary” mid-major. They’ve made back to back NCAA Tournament appearances and are the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Stanford has yet to appear in the Big Dance since Jerod Haase came to Palo Alto in 2016.

San Diego State is excellent defensively. They ranked 2nd in efficiency in the KenPom rankings a year ago and have allowed the ninth fewest points per 100 possessions to start this season. The Aztecs held Cal State Fullerton to 57 points and BYU to 75. 

Stanford figures to have all sorts of trouble scoring tonight. The Cardinal are shooting just 23.7% from three thus far and were just held to 50 points by Wisconsin on Friday. They are 0-2 ATS on the year, having also failed to cover the season opener vs. Pacific.

A real encouraging sign for San Diego State to start the season is that they’ve scored 80 points in both games. That’s something they did only once all of last season. Stanford let Pacific score 78. 

Back to the San Diego State defense - they have been outstanding at forcing turnovers. CS Fullerton and BYU coughed it up a combined 38 times. Not only has Stanford turned it over a total of 34 times so far, but they had one of the worst turnover rates in the country last year. This is a terrible matchup for the home side. Lay the points. 10* San Diego State

Memphis is 9-5 with five wins in their last seven games. But they did lose on Sunday, 102-92 at Washington, without Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. That loss was also the Grizzlies’ lowest scoring game of this season. They are now 0-3 this year when either Morant or Bane does not suit up. 

Morant is off the injured list and Jaren Jackson Jr seems set to make his season debut tonight. But Bane being out 2-3 weeks is a significant loss considering he’s the team’s top three-point shooter. 

The Grizzlies have a pretty mediocre net efficiency rating. I think it’s fair to say that - so far - their schedule has not been all that daunting.

New Orleans is 7-6 and coming off a 119-106 win over Houston on Saturday. They’ll be home now through Thanksgiving, so they need to take advantage. So far the Pelicans are just 3-2 in home games. 

I understand Memphis’ optimism with JJJ and Morant returning. But New Orleans has the better point differential and net efficiency rating this season. Even if Zion Williamson doesn’t play, the Pelicans have enough depth to pull this one out. In particular, look for CJ McCollum, long overdue to get hot, to have a big game. The Grizzlies let Washington hit 19 threes on Sunday. Lay the short number here. 10*

This is a tough spot for Wofford. After losing 91-80 at High Point, a game they were favored to win, this is the second road game in three days for the Terriers. I don’t like their chances.

Meanwhile, Drake has played only once - last Wednesday - and they easily defeated IUPUI by a score of 80-48. 

For Wofford, the best player from last season is back. B.J. Mack led the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in 2021-22. Mack has averaged 18 points in the first two games this year. The problem is that he doesn’t have much returning help. After Mack, last year’s top seven scorers all departed. They’ve been replaced by JUCOs and six freshmen. 

Against High Point, the Terriers never really stood a chance. They were down 17 at halftime and just couldn’t get enough stops in the second half.

Unlike tonight’s opponent, Drake is an experienced team. Five players started at least 13 games on last year’s 25-win squad, making them the logical favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference in 2022-23. The Bulldogs are a very deserved double digit favorite in this game and should have no problem covering the spread. 10*

Kansas State figures to struggle when the Big 12 portion of the schedule begins, so it is imperative that the Wildcats perform well against non-conference opponents. Tonight’s game vs. Cal typifies the concept of “must win” and I believe they will - by a comfortable margin.

There are nine newcomers on the roster this year in Manhattan. Yet the season opener vs. UTRGV could not have gone any better. Now KSU was expected to win big as 22-point favorites. But they ended up delivering a 34-point victory, which was a very encouraging sign.

On the other hand, Cal’s season did not get off to a rousing start. As a six-point favorite here in Berkeley, they lost outright to UC Davis as a six-point favorite. Over the game’s final 9:30, the Bears made only one field goal.

Cal is not exactly expected to light it up this year as they were picked to finish second to last in the Pac 12. 

Six players finished in double figures for K-State in the opener. Cal shot just 38.1% as a team in its first game. I know it’s a small sample size, but the road team is a justifiable favorite in this one and should roll. 10*

While Marquette won its first game against Radford by only 10 points, I’m expecting a blowout tonight. The Golden Eagles were up 21 on Radford before a five-minute scoring drought helped close the gap and make the final score closer than it should have been.

This is the first game of the season for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are off their worst season in many years as they finished 7-23 overall. They were competitive in the MAC, losing by an average of only six points per game, but struggled against non-conference foes, going 1-10 losing by 18 points/game.

Need I remind you that Marquette is NOT a MAC team? 

The Golden Eagles were solid defensively in the opener, limiting Radford to 20% shooting from three. The problem was they shot just 26% from three themselves and also turned it over 18 times. 

But I expect a more solid game from start to finish from Shaka Smart’s team tonight. They had four double digit scorers vs. Radford. CMU lost a lot from last season’s roster and figures to really struggle in the early going. Four of the top five scorers and rebounders from last year departed. A team that turned it over on nearly 20% of its possessions in 2021-22 figures to not fare well against a Smart-coached team. 10*

This number has already been bet down, but there’s still value with underdog Montana. 

The Grizzlies experienced a terrible finish to last season, losing 8 of their last 11 games. Before that, they were 15-6 overall and 8-2 vs. the rest of the Big Sky Conference. I believe this team is going to be on a mission to start the season and it helps that last year’s leading scorer Josh Bannan (15.1 points/game) is back.

There were a couple of key transfers brought into Missoula as well. The most notable being Dischon Thomas from Colorado State.  

After going 6-24 with 17 straight losses last season, Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot decided to clean house and he’s basically got a whole new roster coming into the year. Four of the top six scorers from last year are gone as are 7 of the 10 players that averaged at least nine minutes per game. One of the key new pieces, Tevin Brewer, is out due to an appendectomy. 

Montana was very effective from the free throw line last season, ranking 11th nationally in FT percentage. They also were top 35 in fewest turnover rate. Duquesne was bottom 20 in the country in home field goal shooting percentage and bottom 10 in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Take the points here. 10*

These teams just met Sunday and the Raptors came out on top 113-104. That was in Toronto though and Fred VanVleet was a monster, going for 30 points and 11 assists. 

Zach LaVine sat out yesterday for Chicago as his usage is being managed due to offseason knee surgery. The expectation is that he’ll play tonight. Also, you’ve got to expect more from DeMar DeRozan than what he gave the Bulls Sunday. Yes, DeRozan shot 7 for 9, but that was a season-low in field goal attempts. 

Tonight the Bulls get to play host and they’ve won three of four here in the Windy City. All three victories have been by a minimum of 15 points.

Toronto is without leading scorer Pascal Siakam and there’s no way VanVleet is going to be as productive as he was on Sunday. 

Another key takeaway from last night’s game is that Chicago turned it over 17 times, leading to 23 Toronto points. No way they are that careless again. I expect a Bulls’ bounce back at home where they are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last four times hosting the Raptors. 8*

This is one of the “juicier” matchups on Opening Night of the College Basketball season as two teams coached by former NBA All-Stars collide. 

Memphis went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in the American Conference, and made the NCAA Tournament. In the Big Dance, Anfernee Hardaway’s team gave Gonzaga a real scare in the second round as they had a 10-point lead at halftime. Eventually though, the Tigers would lose by four points. 

Vanderbilt went just 19-17 last season and they were 7-11 in the SEC for Jerry Stackhouse. Notably, the Commodores were just 1-7 when up against a ranked team. Memphis may not be ranked heading into 2022-23, but they are certainly the better team in this matchup.

Kendric Davis is a key transfer for Memphis, coming over from conference rival SMU. Davis joins holdovers Alex Lomax and DeAndre Williams for what should be a formidable scoring trio. The Tigers have nine seniors on the roster, so it’s a veteran team and I look for them to attack Vandy inside in this matchup. 

Vanderbilt lost their best player from last year, Scottie Pippen Jr, to the NBA. I think they’re going to struggle to score here against what should be one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Furthermore, not only should Memphis have success attacking Vandy down low, but they should have a big night from three. Defending the arc was a major problem for the Commodores last season. 10*

Once again, let’s take advantage of injury news and grab some value with an NBA underdog. Last night, it was Chicago getting it done for us with an outright win in Brooklyn. Tonight, Portland is going to be without Damian Lillard, but they are at home and I like them getting points vs. Memphis.

The Blazers did not have Lillard in the lineup last Friday, but still defeated the Houston Rockets by a score of 125-111. They’re well rested coming into Wednesday (four days off!) and are 5-1 SU on the season. 

Memphis is just 4-3 with the wins coming over New York, Houston, Brooklyn and Sacramento. The Grizzlies have been beaten twice by Utah and got blown out (by 41 points) in Dallas.

Ja Morant is having a strong start for the Grizz, but the problem for the team has been defense. Memphis has given up 120 or more points in five of the seven games so far, resulting in the worst defensive rating in the league. They miss Jaren Jackson Jr. Desmond Bane is listed as questionable for tonight, though I expect him to play. 

Yes, Memphis will be motivated by the back to back losses to Utah. Bettors will be tempted to lay a small number with a favorite hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak. But Portland has the best record in the Western Conference and, when rested, can get the job done as a home dog. They beat the Grizzlies in three of the four regular season meetings last year. Take the points. 

The Nets have been a disaster at the betting window thus far, failing to cover in five straight and coming into Tuesday with a 1-6 ATS record on the season. This will be the second night of a back to back for them. Last night saw them defeat the Pacers 116-109 but just miss out on covering as 7.5-point favorites.

Meanwhile, after dropping both games of a back to back, the Bulls have had two days to prepare for this game. They are potentially going to be short-handed though with LaVine, Dosunmu and White all listed as questionable. That’s in addition to both Drummond and Ball still being out.

But DeMar DeRozan will still be in the Bulls’ lineup and I think there’s still enough of a supporting cast around him (Vucevic, Caruso, Dragic) to get the job done. Certainly, Chicago should see improvement at the offensive end as the Nets can’t stop anybody right now. Brooklyn is third worst in the league in points allowed coming into Tuesday, giving up 120.3 per game. 

Last night’s win aside, the Nets just haven’t been very good so far this season. Them laying a short number at home in the second night of a back to back just feels like the oddsmakers are setting a trap. The Nets lack depth. This team is a horrible 13-37-1 ATS its last 51 home games. 8*

The Lakers stink. But because they are the Lakers and NBA’s lone remaining winless team, there are going to be bettors who want to keep playing them. I am here to tell you NOT to make that mistake!

Not only are the Lakers 0-5 straight up, but they are also 0-5 against the spread. They have been an underdog in four of those games and tonight will be their fifth time catching points. No team is worse when it comes to shooting from behind the three-point line. In fact, the Lakers’ current 28.3 3PT FG% would be sixth worst in league history over a single season.

Anthony Davis did not play on Friday when LA lost to Minnesota 111-102. He is hopeful to return this evening. Won’t matter though, Denver is simply the superior basketball team here.

The Nuggets have won four of five since a season-opening loss at Utah. The last time they lost, they led at half before falling apart down the stretch. By the way, Denver has already beaten the Lakers once this year, 110-99, and did so without the services of Michael Porter Jr (who is likely to play tonight). 

The Lakers are the worst offensive team in the league and just don’t have the firepower to stick with a team like Denver, who has averaged over 117 points in its last five games. Lay the points. 10* 

New Orleans was kind to me in their last game as they pulled off the upset, beating Dallas 113-111 as five-point home underdogs. They did so without three starters - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones. 

Ingram is already listed as being OUT for Friday while the other two (Williamson, Jones) are questionable to play. A fourth starter, CJ McCollum, is also listed as questionable.

Going on the road to face Phoenix, who had the league’s best record last season (including a league-high 32 wins at home), I don’t expect the banged up Pelicans to have the kind of success they had at home Tuesday night. 

The Suns, like the Pelicans, are 3-1 with the one loss being a one-possession game. But they just throttled both the Clippers and Warriors, beating those two by a combined 46 points! The Suns are in peak form right now and healthy, so look for them to take care of the wounded Pelicans.

These teams met in the first round of the playoffs last season. Phoenix won the series in six games. With the starting five for New Orleans so banged up, this line definitely looks to be a little “short.” 10*

Brooklyn is now 1-3 straight up and against the spread after losing 110-99 last night in Milwaukee. That result worked for me as I had the Under (233), making it a 24-point winner on this end. The Nets were not so fortunate as their second-half defensive woes continued. This team was outscored 67-44 in the 2H by the Bucks, blowing a 12-point lead in the process.

That came on the heels of another terrible 2H performance in Memphis Monday night where the Nets gave up 70 points after the break and lost by 10. Notable is that the Grizzlies’ Desmond Bane and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo both scored the majority of their points in the 2H. Of the 81 points those two players scored against the Nets, 66 came after the break. So don’t be surprised if the Mavs’ Luka Doncic is able to pour it on late tonight.

Not even 37 points from both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving was enough for the Nets last night. Durant struggled against double teams the last time he faced Dallas, getting held to 23 points on 8 of 20 shooting. Irving did not play in that game (due to the vaccine mandate at the time) but his presence here may not be enough to turn the tide, considering 74 points from the Nets’ top two players was not enough against Milwaukee.

Dallas is 1-2 on the year, but should probably be 3-0 as they blew fourth quarter leads in both losses. They had a 22-point lead against Phoenix in the opening game while the Pelicans (another winner for me) hot shooting (57.9%) was too much to overcome Tuesday. 

Playing in the second night of a back to back, Brooklyn won’t shoot as well as New Orleans did against the Mavericks. This is the first back to back for the Nets this season. They are 11-17 ATS in this situation the previous two seasons and have already given up 130 or more points twice to start 2022-23. The Mavs are 5-2 SU the last 7 meetings with the Nets and are the better team right now. 10*

I’m going to go ahead and assume Zion Williamson (bruised him) plays tonight. Now the Pelicans are banged up beyond Williamson as Brandon Ingram is in concussion protocol while Herbert Jones hyperextended his knee. But CJ McCollum is more than ready to go and you can look for New Orleans to cover the spread at home tonight.

With McCollum leading the way, New Orleans  erased all of a 17-point fourth quarter deficit against the Jazz Saturday night. Eventually, the Pelicans went down in overtime, their first loss of the season. I had them plus the points against Brooklyn in the season opener and then they also beat Charlotte 124-112 for a 2-0 start.

Dallas probably feels it should be 2-0 as they let a 22-point lead slip away in their season opener against Phoenix. The Mavericks then got off to another great start against Memphis on Saturday, but this time didn’t allow their opponents back in it. The Mavs won 137-96.

With or without Williamson, I look for the Pelicans to control the paint in this matchup. They did not trail at any point in the first two games of the season. 10*

Portland was pretty atrocious down the stretch last season, losing its last 11 games. But with a healthy Damian Lillard back in the lineup they have started the 2022-23 season with three consecutive wins and covers. I don’t like their chances tonight though, in the second night of a back to back, hosting Denver.

The Nuggets had a disappointing loss at Utah to open the season, but have since rallied to beat Golden State and Oklahoma City to make it a 2-1 SU start. Laying nine points, they failed to cover against the Thunder, winning just 122-117. That was the second night of a back to back though and the team still shot 52.6% from three-point range.

The final score against the Warriors was a bit misleading as well. Denver led that game virtually the whole way and was up 18 at halftime. They maintained a double digit lead through the third quarter before Golden State made a late run.

Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has turned in back to back triple doubles for the Nuggets, who are also now getting key contributions from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, both of whom missed the entirety of last season due to injuries.

This is simply a great spot to fade Portland as they are off an emotional win over the Lakers last night where they trailed by seven with under two minutes left. Lay the points. 10* 

The Celtics put all the distractions surrounding Ime Udoka behind them and won on Opening Night, defeating the 76ers 126-117 as a five-point favorite. They shot 56.1% from the field and got 35 point games from both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. It was a very nice start to the season for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs.

Can’t say the same for Miami, however, as the Heat were beaten 116-108 by a Chicago team that was a 7.5-point underdog. The thing is, Miami didn’t even play that poorly, aside from committing 19 turnovers. They just had no answer for DeMar DeRozan. 

Now they are set to face a much tougher opponent. Even at home, this short number is not enough for me to be interested in the Heat. Will Boston shoot as well as it did in the opener? Maybe not, but I still expect them to win this game. So I’m laying the points.

These teams played a seven-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals back in May. The Celtics have covered the number in five of their last six visits to Miami.

Malcolm Brogdon showed he can be a nice third scoring option for Boston as he went for 16 in the opener. The Celtics also did a good job defensively in the second half, limiting the 76ers to only 54 points. Miami will only go as far as Jimmy Butler carries them. Kyle Lowry was a no-show in the first game, shooting 1 of 7 including 0 of 5 from three. 10* 

The 76ers lost by nine up in Boston Tuesday, 126-117. They got solid contributions from James Harden and Joel Embiid, who combined for 61 points and 23 rebounds. Harden also had seven assists and went 12 for 12 from the FT line. But the rest of the team was “persona non grata” as the bench produced only 11 points.

At home, we should expect a far greater contribution from the Sixers’ supporting cast. Looking back, it was basically one bad quarter (the third) that did the team in against Boston. They outscored the Celtics (by one point) over the other three quarters.

This will be Milwaukee’s first game after going 0-5 in the preseason. Kris Middleton, their second best player, is out. That puts added pressure on Giannis Antetokounmpo. It wouldn’t be unlike the former MVP to step up, but he can’t do it all by himself and this is one of the top teams from the East that the Bucks are facing tonight.

Tuesday night saw Philadelphia get outscored on fastbreak points 24-2. That will not happen again. I also expect a better defensive effort after allowing the Celtics to shoot 56% from the floor. 10*

The Sixers have been very good at home the last two seasons, winning 61 of 90 games. Most of that is without Harden. Right now, they are a deeper (and better) team than the Bucks. Lay the points. 10*

New Orleans got off to a horrible start last year, but quickly turned things around and even earned the 8-seed by virtue of winning two games in the Play-In Tournament. They did so despite not getting a single game out of Zion Williamson, who is now back healthy and ready to start the 2022-23 campaign.

Brooklyn’s playoff stay was actually shorter than that of the Pelicans. The Nets were swept in the first round by Boston, ending a very disappointing run which saw Kyrie Irving miss a number of games. Kevin Durant wanted out in the offseason, but he and Irving are both set to return. So is Ben Simmons after an embarrassing end to the playoffs where he DNP in Game 4. 

I think things are going to get worse before they get better for Brooklyn. Durant wanted the coach and GM fired, but neither were and now everyone has to co-exist. We also don’t know how well Durant and Irving will play together.

The Pelicans have a solid starting five with Williamson back as CJ McCollum was a huge acquisition for this team last year. 

New Orleans can definitely score. They averaged 116.7 points over their final 26 regular season games, making them all the more enticing as an underdog in this spot. Grab the points. 8*

The Lakers are obviously a much different team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup. Both will be ready to go Tuesday night in the series opener vs. Golden State. Thus I’m taking the points.

In the 108 regular season games that James and Davis have played together, the Lakers have gone 75-33 straight up, a win percentage of .690. Only the Suns had a win percentage higher than .690 last season.

While James and Davis should be happy to see one another tonight, I don’t know how the Warriors can possibly navigate the situation with Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. Additionally, coach Steve Kerr has openly questioned his own team’s conditioning. Yesterday he was quoted as saying the starters are not ready to play 30+ minutes. That’s troublesome.

We know that the Lakers won’t have Dennis Schroeder and Russell Westbrook may not play either. Still, plus the points, I believe they are the play. A motivated James and Davis should be enough to cover this spread.

The Lakers massively underachieved last season and will be ready to play. Golden State is likely to be more concerned with the pregame ring ceremony and thus expect a flat start from them. 10*

We’re rolling with Boston here to keep the season alive and force a deciding Game 7 in the NBA Finals. This will be the first time the Celtics are coming off back to back losses since the end of March, which was the regular season. They had been 7-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs off a loss, before losing Game 5 at Golden State, 104-94 as four-point underdogs.

Tonight, I think we’ll see the Celtics shoot a lot better than they did in Game 5. They were just 41.3% from the field on Monday, 34.4% from three. Being back at home obviously helps in that regard. 

However, his game being in Boston may help the Celtics out more defensively. They allow only 103.1 points/game at home. Golden State’s scoring defense goes to 108.9 on the road, up from 103.0 at home. 

Surprisingly, the Warriors are only 26-24 SU on the road. They will probably shoot better from three-point land tonight compared to Game 5 (when they were just 9 of 40 as a team and Steph Curry was 0 for 9). But that alone does not guarantee success. 

The Celtics have not lost three straight games since late December. They are at home, with their season on the line, tonight. When off a double digit loss, they are 10-3 ATS this season. Also, they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs when trailing in the series. Lay the points in Game 6! 

Neither of our two NBA Finalists have suffered consecutive defeats since the playoffs began. If that pattern holds, that means Boston will win this series in seven games. But that would also mean the Celtics win twice on the road. I don’t see that happening. Look for Golden State to take a 3-2 series lead Monday night as they are back home.

The Warriors have lost at home only 11 times all year. Game 1 of this series was one of those 11, but it was also the only home game they’ve lost during the playoffs. They are +10.5 points per game for the year at home and as I’ve mentioned before, defense improves for the Warriors here as they allow just 103.2 points per game compared to 108.9 on the road.

The Warriors have played 11 home games in the playoffs. Not only have they won 10 of them, but eight of those wins have come by double digits. They’ve covered five of the last six.

Steph Curry continues to be other-worldly. He’s averaging 34.3 points per game in the NBA Finals and has made 25 threes in four games. He’s shooting almost 50 percent from behind the arc. Curry’s supporting cast should help out more in Game 5 as role players typically shoot better at home.

This is a huge game where it’s very likely the winner goes on to take the series. I just see Curry and Golden State as being more likely to step up. Lay the points.

The best time to take the Celtics, at least in the playoffs, has been when they are coming off a loss. Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, they are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread coming off a loss. Look for that trend to continue in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. 

After exploding in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Celtics fell apart in the third quarter of Game 2. They ended up losing 107-88, their largest margin of defeat in the entire playoffs (previous worst loss was 12). 

The team shot 37.5% in Game 2. At home, they’ll easily improve that number. Three-point shooting has been good in both games. Interestingly, everyone except Jayson Tatum seemed to shoot well in the first game. In the second game, Tatum was the only one to really show up. I’m looking for a more balanced effort in Game 3.

Golden State is an average team on the road, 25-23 with 109.1 points per game scored and 109.0 allowed. They allow six more points per game on the road than they allow at home, which is a big difference. 

Speaking of defense, look for Boston to do a better job on Steph Curry in this game. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS off a double digit loss this year. I figured that the Warriors wouldn’t lose both games at home, which is why I was on them in Game 2. But they’ve lost three of four on the road and aren’t winning both games in Boston. Lay the points.

It’s difficult for me to believe that the Warriors will lose two straight home games. Before a Boston three-point barrage hit them in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Warriors held a double digit lead. They are 4-0 this postseason off a loss, three of the four wins coming by at least 10 points.

Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, the Celtics have not won three games in a row. They are 0-2 ATS off back to back wins in the previous two series, dropping those games by a combined 19 points.

Boston isn’t going to make more than half of its three point attempts again. Al Horford was 6 of 8 from distance while Derrick White went 5 of 8. Those specific contributions are highly unlikely to be repeated in Game 2. 

Golden State is due for a strong effort at the defensive end. They’ve permitted an average of 113.7 points their last five games. For the year, they allow only 103.5 at home.

Steph Curry ran wild in the first quarter, but other than that, there were no standout performances from the Warriors at the offensive end. Lots of room for improvement in Game 2, whether you’re talking Draymond Green (2 for 12 in Game 1) or Jordan Poole (2 for 7). Lay the points. 

I can’t say that I expected there would be a Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but here we are. The Heat stayed alive with a 111-103 win on Friday night and get to host the deciding game. They are still underdogs, however. While that may sound tantalizing, look for Boston to advance to the NBA Finals.

Defensively, the Celtics had totally shut down the Heat for two games before Jimmy Butler exploded for 47 points in Game 6. Besides Butler, the rest of the Heat's starting five has scored just 89 points in the last three games combined. I do not think they can count on another game like that from Butler.

Boston is 15-4 straight up off a loss as a favorite this season and 14-5 against the spread. They are also 31-16 ATS on the road. Most important of all though is the fact the Celtics are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS off a loss in this postseason.

All five wins have been by at least eight points and three of them have been by more than 20. They’ve already won a Game 7 in these playoffs, over Milwaukee, though that one was at home.

The last time the Celtics lost back to back games was late March. Before that, it was mid-January. Everyone was writing off the Heat going into Game 6, a mistake in retrospect, however now it is time to buy low on Boston

Dallas kept its season alive with a 119-109 win in Game 4. Despite never trailing after the first quarter and enjoying a 29-point advantage entering the fourth, things did get a bit too close for comfort near the end of the game. Thankfully, here we need not worry about the Mavericks having to win by any kind of margin. I’m taking the points.

The “world” will likely be on Golden State to respond at home where they haven’t lost in this postseason. However, the Mavs did build a sizable halftime lead here in Game 2 (72-58) before imploding down the stretch. 

After getting off to a horrible start in Game 1, the Mavs have played the Warriors tough in this series. Their season is still on the line and while no team has ever fought back from a 3-0 series deficit, we know that we’ll be getting Dallas’ best effort from here on out. 

Golden State is surprisingly only 4-7 straight up following a double digit loss this year. 

Dallas had its biggest edge from long range in Game 4. While I think it’s unlikely they can be +30 again, they have made more threes than the Warriors in all four games. The pointspread has yet to come into play in any Conference Finals game so far. It may very well here. 

This Eastern Conference Finals between Boston and Miami has seen the two teams exchange blowout victories. The series is 2-2 heading back to Miami after the Celtics won easily in Game 4, 102-82 as seven-point favorites.

The Celtics have yet to lose back to back games in these playoffs. Going back to their second round series vs. Milwaukee, there’s also been just one instance of them winning back to back games. But if you think this is leading to an endorsement of the Heat for Game 5, guess again.

Boston was not favored in Games 1 and 2 here in Miami. They are slight favorites tonight. Game 1 they were missing Marcus Smart and Al Horford. Smart (questionable for tonight) was out again in Game 4, but that hardly mattered as Derrick White started in his place, scored the game’s first seven points and finished with 13-8-8.

Only Tyler Herro sat for the Heat in the last game. He and Kyle Lowry are listed as questionable tonight. After the Heat scored just 82 points in Game 4, which included just 18 from the starting five, I understand why many would feel there’s a Miami bounce back forthcoming. But I just happen to think Boston is better. 

The Celtics’ two wins in the series have been by a combined 45 points. The Heat’s two wins have been by a combined 17 points. Boston has been up at the half in three of the games. Jimmy Butler is clearly not himself with just 14 points the last two games. Lay the points. 

For the second series in a row, the Mavs return home for Game 3 down two games to none. We all recall what happened against Phoenix in the last round. Now I’m not saying the Mavs pull that off again, but I do like them here in Game 3. 

Certainly, Dallas feels that this Western Conference Final should be all squared away at one game apiece. They led Game 2 for most of the first three quarters and were up 14 at half. Luka Doncic had 42 points. But it was not to be as Golden State raced past them in the fourth.

The Mavs have won five straight at home in these playoffs since losing Game 1 of the Utah series (without Doncic). Something I have mentioned before is that they are #1 in the league in fewest points allowed at home (101.0 per game). I can assure you that the Warriors will not be shooting 56% again as they did in each of the first two games.

Though Coach Jason Kidd quipped that his team “died by the three” in Game 2, I expect the Mavs will continue to fire from behind the arc in this game. They’ve attempted 93 threes in the series. They made 21 in Game 2. Golden State shot a higher percentage, but will not repeat going 50% from deep as they did in Game 2. 

Golden State has failed to cover each of its last four road games. Dallas is 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Lay the points

I like Dallas to rebound here from its embarrassing Game 1 defeat. The Mavericks scored only 18 points in the first quarter and when you do that against a team like the Warriors, it’s pretty much “all over but the shouting.” The Mavs ended up shooting just 36% for the game, including 23% from three. 

You’ve got to expect better shooting here tonight from the road underdog. Over the previous three seasons, Dallas is 29-9 ATS after a game in which it was held under 100 points. They are 19-4 ATS in that situation this season. Also, the team is 12-4 ATS in 2021-22 when coming off a double digit defeat.

I can’t fathom Golden State shooting 56.1 percent again like they did in Game 1. Dallas has been an excellent defensive team all season long and held Phoenix under 100 points three times in that series. 

Dallas should shoot much better from long-range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. Doncic, Brunson, Bertans and Bullock went a combined 6 of 29 from behind the arc. 

Even with Games 3 and 4 taking place at home, the Mavericks obviously want to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-2 hole. They fought their way out of it against Phoenix, but it would be much tougher to do that against Golden State. Take the points in Game 2. 

I think most are underestimating the Mavericks coming into the Western Conference Finals. This is a team that has already eliminated Utah and Phoenix, two very good teams, and just delivered an emphatic 123-90 win on Sunday in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. So no one should be underestimating them.

Luka Doncic averaged 32.6 points per game against Phoenix. In four regular season matchups vs. the Warriors, he averaged 31.5. That was the fourth most points scored against Golden State in a single season since Steve Kerr became head coach. 

Gary Payton II would have been the primary defender on Doncic, but he’s out with an injury. So I think Golden State is going to give up more points than what you might think for Game 1. Dallas did have the one bad offensive game vs. the Suns where they scored only 80 points. But since then, they scored 113 and 123. 

The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 straight up and 8-0-1 against the spread in the 2021-22 season following a game where they allowed 90 or fewer points. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS off their previous five SU wins and have only covered two of their last eight games overall.

In case you hadn’t figured it out by now, I’m taking the points in Game 1. Doncic is playing at an elite level and the Mavericks have the higher net efficiency rating through two rounds of playoff action. 

Memphis sure fooled me in Game 5, beating Golden State by 39 points despite not having Ja Morant. The Grizzlies have won 21 of their 27 games without Morant in 2021-22 and have basically led throughout the last two games. So I’m pretty confident that the underdog keeps this one close. 

Two of Golden State’s three victories in this series have been by a combined four points. As I just said, last time they were here at home, they were behind most of the way only to get bailed out by a Steph Curry fourth quarter surge. (The Warriors ended up winning by three).

Memphis has led for nearly 46 of the 48 minutes in the two games since Morant got hurt. All season long, the Grizzlies have demonstrated tremendous depth. Seven players were in double figures in the last three. Three scored exactly 21 points. 

Steve Kerr is still not coaching for the Warriors because of COVID-19. It seems to have had an effect. Also, the Warriors have scored 101 points or less in three of the last four games.

The Grizzlies are 23-15 ATS as underdogs this season, winning 20 of those games outright. They are also 19-5 ATS vs. the Pacific Division, including 7-2 ATS vs. the Warriors. More importantly, they are 4-0 ATS this postseason when behind in the series. Memphis has covered four of the five games so far while Golden State is just 1-6 ATS its last seven overall.

Philadelphia must win here to stay alive. The good thing is they are at home where they’ve already beaten the Heat twice, by 20 and 8 points. It’s difficult to imagine the 76ers’ shooting not improving from the last time out. Game 5 marked the fourth time in these playoffs that the 76ers were held below 100. They averaged 117 points the next time out, the previous three instances.

Similarly, look for Miami’s shooting to decline in Game 5. They were 7 of 30, then 7 of 35 from three-point land in the previous two games here in Philly. 

No one on the Sixers scored more than 17 points in Game 5. Think that might change here? With Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, I’m expecting at least two Sixers players to top 20 tonight.

Other than Jimmy Butler, only Bam Adebayo in Game 4 has turned in a 20+ point effort for the Heat over the last three games. 

Philadelphia is 17-5 straight up, 14-8 against the spread this season following a sub-100 point game. The previous time they got held below 90 (Game 5 vs Toronto), they responded by scoring 132 in the next game. Lay the points here.

I like the Warriors to close out the Grizzlies Wednesday night and also to cover the spread. Memphis won’t have Ja Morant, which is a big loss even if the team is 20-6 (straight up) this season without its star point guard and also turned in an admirable effort in Game 4 Monday night.

But you can’t expect Golden State to go 9 of 35 on three-point tries again like they did in the last game. The Warriors also had a bad night from three in Game 2 (7 of 38). The next game they bounced back to make 17 of 32 from beyond the arc and shot 63.1% overall. 

Memphis shot a similar three-point percentage in Game 4 (25.7%). The difference is that without Morant, their chances of improving aren’t as great. Let us not forget that even when Morant was healthy, the Grizzlies needed three huge comebacks in the first round to eliminate Minnesota. 

The expectation is that Steve Kerr will again not coach for the Warriors as he remains in health and safety protocol. But that doesn’t really concern me. Golden State is 12-0 SU all-time in the playoffs when associate Mike Brown fills in as the head coach. 

Golden State should smell “blood in the water” here and be looking for the kill. It is in their best interest to end this series tonight with the chance Phoenix could move to the Western Conference Finals with a win tomorrow. The Warriors winning here and that Phoenix-Dallas series going seven games would be the dream scenario. Lay the points tonight. 

When Dallas headed home to face Phoenix for Game 3, they had lost to the Suns 11 straight times and were facing an 0-2 series deficit. Now the series is all tied up after a couple of impressive wins at home. The Suns are the team that is reeling entering Game 5 tonight.

We’re back in Phoenix, but I see the Mavericks playing a lot better Tuesday night than they did in either Games 1 or 2. Though they did end up losing by 20, the Mavs were ahead at halftime in Game 2. And though they were down the whole way in Game 1, they only ended up losing by seven with a chance to “steal the cover” late (they did not). 

Remember something I’ve previously written. The Suns posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced out of the first round. That was against the 8th seeded Pelicans.

Dallas was +33 from behind the three-point line in Game 4. We probably shouldn’t count on that transpiring again. But they’ve made more threes than Phoenix in the series and in every game but one (both teams made 13 in Game 3). 

I happen to think the teams are a lot closer than these odds would seem to suggest. Dallas is definitely the better defensive team in this Western Conference semifinal. Grab those points.

This series feels a lot different now that Joel Embiid is back for Philadelphia. The 76ers rolled to a 99-79 win in Game 3 as the home team has yet to lose in this best of seven affair. While we can’t count on Miami shooting as poorly here as they did in Game 3, I still like the Sixers to win and cover Game 4. 

Still at +285 to win the series, the Sixers seem a bit undervalued to me. Embiid had only 18 points in Game 3, well under his season average, and eight of those came from the FT line. It was a bit of a surprise return Friday night. I’m expecting more from Embiid tonight.

James Harden also has yet to “go off” in this series, even with Embiid not playing either of the first two games. Harden has scored only 53 points in the series, on 15 of 39 shooting. He’s 4 of 19 from behind the arc. If we get anything approaching “typical” performances from Harden and Embiid here, then we should be in VERY good shape.

Also, the Sixers’ other three starters (Harris, Maxey, Green) have all shown an ability to contribute in meaningful fashion. 

For Miami, Jimmy Butler scored 33 points in Game 3, but only one other teammate (Tyler Herro) joined him in double figures and it took a rather inefficient effort. Kyle Lowry didn’t score (attempted only four shots) in his first game back from a hamstring injury and Bam Adebayo was a non-factor, going just 2 of 9 from the floor. I really like the Sixers here.

After losing Game 1 on their home floor, 101-89, the Celtics bounced back to win Game 2 109-86 and are now back to being favored to win this best of seven series, which now moves to Milwaukee. Despite the change in home court advantage, I like Boston to still walk away with the ATS win in Game 3. 

The Celtics are 10-1 ATS vs. the Bucks the last three seasons. With Khris Middleton still out for Milwaukee, it feels like laying points would be a bad idea here. Sure, the Bucks will shoot better than they did in the last game, but will improved shooting be enough?

Overall shooting was pretty even in Game 2, but it was from three where the Celtics had a huge edge. They were 20 of 43 while Milwaukee was 3 of 18. Boston was up 25 points at halftime. 

Boston had the best regular season point differential in the Eastern Conference and is considered the favorite to make the NBA Finals. So it makes sense to bet them here. I’m just not sure Milwaukee can maintain its current defensive rating in the playoffs.

Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart is expected back for Game 3. His Celtics are now 33-8 SU their last 41 games. They’ve covered five in a row as underdogs and are the better team. 

Both home teams on Friday are down 0-2 in their respective series. You would have to go all the way back to 2019 to find the last time the Mavericks beat the Suns head to head. The losing streak is now 11 games. I think tonight is the night they snap it. 

This projection may seem a bit “brave,” but Dallas is 32-12 straight up at home this year. Looking at the home vs. road splits for both them and the Suns, one thing really stands out. The Mavs are only allowing 101.5 points per game at home, well down from the 108.0 points per game they give up on the road.

So you should expect Phoenix to score a lot fewer points here than they did in either Games 1 (121) and 2 (129). The Suns made 64.5% of their shots in Game 2 and were 13 of 25 from three. That’s just not sustainable, especially when now going out on the road and facing what has been one of the better defensive teams in the league.

Dallas is 5-0 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a game where they allowed 125 or more points. So recent history points to them putting the clamps down and bouncing back here. 

I think the other key is that Dallas needs someone to step up besides Luka Doncic. At home, that should happen. In each of the first two games, Doncic has scored more than the other four starters combined. Look for a more balanced effort from the Mavs tonight as they get back into the win column.

Joel Embiid has been downgraded to OUT for Game 3 and that’s not the news Philadelphia wanted to hear as the Sixers are already down 2-0 in this series with Miami. But the Heat have a number of “banged up” players themselves and considering the sense of desperation for the Sixers (who are now back home), I like them to cover in this spot.

The market reacted swiftly to the Embiid news with Miami now favored by a few points on the road. But don’t forget, up two games to none in the first round, they lost Game 3 at Atlanta. Even without Embiid, the 76ers are a stronger team than the Hawks. They have James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris.

Maxey and Harris each turned in a breakout game in Miami. But Harden was disappointing in the two games, scoring only 36 points and shooting 11 of 28 from the field. I expect him to play a lot better tonight.

As a team, look for Philly to shoot much better from three-point land than they did in either of the first two games. They are 14 of 64 from behind the arc in the series. That’s well below their season average of 36.4% for the year.

This will be the 76ers first time playing at home in 12 days and only their second game here since April 18th. I expect the place will be “rocking.” Take the home underdog.

The Mavs have now lost nine straight times to the Suns following a rather dismal performance in Game 1 where they lost 121-114 as 5.5-point underdogs. While the ATS result came down the wire, that final score really isn’t indicative of how the game actually went. Dallas was down double digits most of the way.

Luka Doncic did his part for the Mavericks in Game 1, turning in a 45-12-8 game. But the rest of the starters combined for just 39 points. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie finished well below their respective scoring averages in Game 1. I’m expecting both to play better tonight.

For Phoenix, Devin Booker still seems hobbled by a hamstring injury. He’s shot just 12 of 32 in the two games since returning. 

Defensively, the Mavs have been one of the top teams in the NBA this year. They allow only 104.5 points per game and kept Utah, one of the league’s most efficient offenses, to only 99 points per game.

Doncic has only played two of the four games against Phoenix this year. I think the Mavs’ three-point shooting keeps them in this game and I would not rule out an upset here. Grab those points.

Boston should bounce back in Game 2. They shot 10 of 34 (just 29.4 percent!) from inside the arc in Game 1. That was their lowest shooting percentage on two-point attempts all season. There have been only seven times all year that the Celtics shot below 45 percent from two-point range. 

Following those poor shooting nights, the team has consistently been able to rediscover its shooting touch, making an average of 55 percent from inside the arc the next game. 

I think it’s a given that Boston improves offensively for Game 2. Defensively, they were #1 in points allowed during the regular season. They held Milwaukee to 101 points on 41.1% shooting in Game 1 and I think they are capable of doing the same again tonight.

Just to reiterate what I’ve said so far, the Celtics are 10-5 against the spread this season after being held under 100 points. They are 11-5 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite.

Remember that Milwaukee is missing its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. His production is more difficult to replace on the road. Not sure the Bucks can count on another 25-point performance from Jrue Holiday tonight. They are 1-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less the previous game. Lay the points in Game 2.

Phoenix, who has the league’s best record, is a big favorite to win this series with Dallas. But it was by no means a dominant first round effort by the Suns. They needed six games to eliminate the 8-seed New Orleans and posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced.

Some of the subpar performance could be pinned on leading scorer Devin Booker missing most of the series. Booker played in only three games and only once did he log more than 32 minutes. The Suns did win both games Booker finished. 

But what about Dallas eliminating Utah, despite not having Luka Doncic the first three games? That was more impressive than the Suns without Booker. The Mavericks have covered five in a row and the only game they lost was decided by one point.

The Mavs last win over the Suns came in November of 2019. They’ve lost nine in a row to Phoenix since. But recall Milwaukee’s history vs. Boston was not good. Until yesterday when I backed the Bucks. Two of the three games Dallas lost to Phoenix this season, Doncic was out. 

These teams are more even than you’re being led to believe. Not only does Dallas have Doncic, they have Jalen Brunson, who averaged 27.8 points per game in the first round. Defensively, the Mavs are one of the top teams. They held Utah to 99 points per game. For the year, they are holding opponents to 104.3 points per game.

Needing all those late game heroics to overcome Minnesota in the first round, Memphis almost seems like it’s being “written off” for Game 1 against Golden State. But the Grizzlies are at home Sunday where they are 8-2 straight up and against the spread as underdogs this season. I say grab the points in Game 1 as the Warriors look like a VERY “public” side. 

Memphis won three of the four regular season games against Golden State and handed the Warriors their worst loss of the season. That comes with an asterisk though as the Warriors’ 28-point loss here in Memphis came without the services of Curry, Thompson and Green. 

But that doesn’t mean the Grizzlies won’t win again here. Golden State is only 23-20 on the road where it gives up about six more points per game than they do at home. Also the Warriors might be rusty. They haven’t played since Wednesday.

Five Grizzlies averaged double figures in round one and it was not Ja Morant leading the way. It was Desmond Bane, who averaged 23.5 points and made 27 threes. Morant wasn’t far behind with a 21.5 PPG average vs. Minnesota.

Memphis is 32-12 at home, winning by almost nine points per game. They are a great value play in Game 1. Grab those points.

The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs.

The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. 

Shockingly, the Bucks are 0-9 ATS the last nine games vs. the Celtics. But today’s game marks just the second time that the Celtics will have been favored to beat the Bucks.

Khris Middleton is a big loss for the Bucks (he’s their second leading scorer), but consider the way Milwaukee played defense in the first round. They posted the best defensive efficiency rating of any team. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo can still carry this team to victory. For Boston, Jaylen Brown is dealing with an injured hamstring. This is a far more even matchup than what the series odds say. Grab the points in Game 1. 

The Suns were expected to roll in this series, but now are hoping just to avoid a Game 7. Leading scorer Devin Booker hasn’t played since Game 2. Phoenix has won two of the three games without him and a Game 6 return by Booker is now considered a possibility. But I like the Pelicans at home in this one. 

The old trusty zig-zag theory has played out according to script in this series. Neither team has been able to cover two in a row. If that pattern holds, then New Orleans will likely force a Game 7 (they are short underdogs). 

The last game in New Orleans was won by the Pelicans 118-103. The Pels were then betrayed by three-point shooting in Game 5, making only 5 of 25 attempts. They’ll be far better than that in tonight’s game. CJ McCollum was 1 for 8 from distance in Game 5 and 3 for 17 the last two games. I expect him to start making shots at a higher percentage here.

The Suns have yet to score more than 114 points in any game during the series. New Orleans is averaging 111.5 at home for the season. If they hit their average, we’re in good shape tonight.

Don’t think Mikal Bridges will score 31 again like he did in Game 5. (That was a career playoff high). Booker or no Booker, I don’t like the Suns’ chances here. Take the points.

After completely destroying the Hawks in Game 4, 110-86, the Heat have a chance to close out this series at home. All three of Miami’s wins in this series have been by double digits while Atlanta’s lone triumph was by a single point after a Trae Young game winner. The Heat probably should have swept this series. Look for them to close things out tonight.

Atlanta just isn’t any good defensively. They are allowing 112.5 points per game in the series, which I guess is not all that surprising as they allowed 112.4 in the regular season and came into the playoffs with the worst defensive efficiency rating of all remaining teams. 

It hasn’t helped that Young has struggled mightily. He’s averaging just 16.5 points per game while shooting 32.1 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from three. He was held to just nine points on 3 of 11 shooting in Game 4 and he attempted just one free throw as 10 of his 11 shots were launched from behind the arc.

Young and the Hawks have now been held under 100 points in two of the four games. Miami clearly knows what it’s doing defensively and Atlanta has no game plan to solve it.

The Hawks are 0-42 ATS in their straight up losses this season, including 0-23 as underdogs! They are 6-20 ATS as road underdogs. Series over.

Could the Nets really be swept right out the first round? Bet on it! Boston, who many believed could come out of the East if they won this series, is quickly cementing itself as the team to beat in this conference. They are clearly the better team in this series and I will take the points in Game 4.

Though both Philadelphia and Golden State failed to sweep their series, teams holding a 3-0 series lead are still on a 29-15 straight run in Game 4’s. 

There is simply no homecourt advantage for Brooklyn this year as they’ve gone 9-33 ATS at the Barclays Center. While the knee-jerk reaction to that record is to blame the absence of Kyrie Irving for most of those games, the bottom line is the Nets are 1-7 ATS their last eight games here, including the 109-103 loss in Game 3. 

Kevin Durant is struggling mightily in this series. He’s averaging only 22 points per game on 36.5% shooting. That scoring average would be the lowest in any postseason series in Durant’s entire career. I can’t say that I’m that surprised as Boston is arguably the top defensive team in the NBA. They are even stronger with Robert Williams back. Al Horford is having himself an excellent series. Jayson Tatum is averaging 29.7 points and Jaylen Brown is averaging 22.7 while shooting better than 50 percent.

Boston is 14-8 ATS in the underdog role this season. Brooklyn is 17-38 ATS as a favorite. I expect the Celtics to end this series Monday night. 

The Jazz ought to be embarrassed here as they are down two games to one in this series, despite Luka Doncic having not played a single minute for the Mavericks. Doncic says he’s feeling “no pain” in his calf and thus his status has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4. Either way, I like Utah minus the points in this one.

Perhaps the Jazz got overconfident when it was announced that Doncic would miss Game 3. They were down 17 at halftime and while it turned into a close game in the fourth quarter, Utah still lost by eight points. This despite shooting 56.5% overall from the field and going 31 of 33 from the free throw line!

The big difference in Game 3 was Utah shooting 9 of 28 from three while Dallas was 18 of 42. Making twice as many three as your opponent is a big deal and is a discrepancy that certainly isn’t likely to be repeated here in Game 4. I also can’t see Jalen Brunson continuing his run, whether Doncic returns or not, as Brunson has averaged 36 points the last two games. 

Utah is an outstanding team at home where it has outscored its opponents by 9.4 points per game this year. Only Golden State has beaten its visitors by a wider margin over the course of 2021-22. 

This is a must win game for the Jazz. Whether or not Doncic returns for Dallas, look for the Jazz to cover the spread. 

Even without Devin Booker, I expect the Suns to beat the Pelicans in Game 3. They outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions without Booker when Chris Paul was on the court. Look for Cameron Payne to step it up in Booker’s absence as well. 

In Game 2, New Orleans took full advantage of Booker leaving, springing a 125-114 upset. They shot the lights out, making 17 of their 30 three-point tries and finishing at 54% overall from the field. Even though they are now back at home, don’t look for the Pelicans to match their Game 2 shooting.

It is important to note that Phoenix is 14-3 against the spread this season when seeking revenge for a loss. They are 63-34 in that situation the previous three seasons.

The Suns are simply the better team here, having won 63 games in the regular season. Booker missed 14 regular season games. The team has the second highest defensive efficiency rating on the road and can claim a 13-3 ATS mark when the spread is three points or less, in either direction.

Coming off its best three-point shooting night of the entire season, there’s no way that New Orleans doesn’t regress offensively here. It would be a shock to see the Pelicans win this series, so I’m playing this one accordingly.

The Suns did nothing in Game 1 to dissuade you from thinking they are the best team in the league. They jumped all over the Pelicans, taking a 28-16 lead after the first quarter and never looking back after that. They led by 19 at halftime and ended up winning 110-99, just barely covering the 10-point spread. 

Remember that New Orleans had to win twice just to get here, so they were at a severe disadvantage heading into the first game.

But that disadvantage no longer exists for Game 2 and I’m liking the Pelicans to at least cover the spread in tonight’s matchup. While Phoenix is 24-3 straight up this season as a favorite of eight points or more, they are only 14-13 against the spread.

New Orleans shot especially poorly from two-point range in Game 1. They made only 27 of 72 attempts inside the arc, which is 37.5%, a very low number. Expect them to be more efficient there tonight. Eight missed free throws in Game 1 didn’t help the Pelicans either. 

Despite digging themselves into such an early hole, the Pelicans found themselves down only six in the fourth quarter. I don’t expect them to fall into that kind of an early hole again in Game 2. Take the points here as New Orleans is 5-1 ATS following its previous six SU losses. 

Minnesota had to win a game in the Play-In Tournament to get here, but I believe they are being undervalued in Game 1 at Memphis. The Timberwolves were very much on par with some of the teams in the West’s top six - like Dallas and Denver - and I expect them to make this a competitive series. 

I am pretty confident that the Timberwolves will get a better game out of Karl-Anthony Towns than what they got Tuesday vs. the Clippers. Towns played one of the worst games of his career, finishing with 11 points on only three made baskets. He also fouled out. But teammates Edwards (30 points) and Russell (29) bailed KAT out. 

These teams met four times in the regular season and each won twice. While the home team won all four games, all but one was close and that was a 138-95 win for the Timberwolves. Thanks to that one blowout, Minnesota outscored Memphis in the four games and shot better - both overall and from three.

The fact Memphis hasn’t played a meaningful game in quite awhile may have an adverse effect here. Ja Morant has played only one game since March 18th. He was 3 for 20 on three-point attempts in the four games vs. Minnesota this year.

The Timberwolves have won and covered all three times this year when they’ve played with three or more days of rest. Memphis did have the second best record in the league and isn’t what I’d call a “public team,” but they are overvalued here. Take the points.

It’s win or go home for the Pelicans and Clippers tonight on ESPN. The winner of this game will be the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The loser’s season will come to an end.

Home teams have gone 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS so far in the play-in tournament. New Orleans was one of the four winners by beating San Antonio 113-103. They were up by as many as 19 points in the fourth quarter. The Clippers were not as good down the stretch in Minnesota and they lost 109-104. But by virtue of finishing in 8th place, they get a second chance and are the home team for this game.

The Pelicans’ top three players all got the job done Wednesday. CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas combined for 81 points on 32 of 56 shooting. I do not think you should look too much into the team’s 37-46 SU record. They are 34-30 since a dreadful 3-16 start and have been a much better team since acquiring McCollum. 

The Pelicans were 3-1 vs. the Clippers this season with the three wins coming by an average of 18.7 points. Also, Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS this season when playing with exactly two days of rest. 

Even with the home court advantage, I’m not sure that LA should be favored here. Certainly not by this many points. Take the underdog here as an outright win would not surprise me. Paul George just doesn’t have enough help. 

The 76ers won Saturday 133-120 against Indiana. Joel Embiid had 41 points and 20 rebounds, the first time this season that any player had a 40-20 game. Embiid all but wrapped up the scoring title and the Sixers are guaranteed home court advantage for their first round playoff series.

There’s a chance that by the time this game tips off, the Sixers will be locked into the 4-seed. In order to move up into third, they would not only need to win this game, but have Boston lose earlier in the day to Memphis. If Boston wins that game, then the Sixers are locked into 4th. 

With the chance the Sixers have nothing to play for, I’ll take my chances here and grab the points. And even if the 3-seed is still a possibility, I don’t think the Sixers will win by enough to cover the spread.

There’s a chance that a Pistons’ win might hurt their lottery odds, but I still expect a semblance of pride and professionalism to take place here. "We just want to finish with the right spirit and the right togetherness," Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey said. 

Detroit has been on some incredible runs at the betting window. They are 18-3 ATS L21 as an underdog and 11-0 ATS L11 road games. Grab the points.

The Wizards and Knicks enter Friday with identical 35-45 straight up records. It’s been a disappointing campaign as both made the playoffs last year. The Knicks have really fallen as they were 4th in the East last season. 

New York has lost three of four, the only win coming against last place Orlando. They blew a 21-point lead to the Nets on Wednesday and ended up losing that game 110-98, not even covering!

Washington also experienced a double digit setback two days ago. They fell 118-103 in Atlanta. Before that though, they’d won three of four and put up 127 or more points in all three wins. 

I think by virtue of being at home, the Wizards have the edge Friday. This is their last home game of the season, so there should be some motivation to win the final game in front of fans. They are 5-1 ATS following a SU loss, going back to the end of March.

The Knicks have covered eight straight times as road underdogs and won their last four road games straight up. But those streaks end tonight. Two of those road wins were Orlando and Detroit. The Knicks (27th in scoring) just won’t be able to match the Wizards (119.8 PPG L5) offensively. 

It may seem like San Antonio is getting “a lot” of points in this matchup, but consider this is a team that has been well below .500 most of the year. There is a reason they are just trying to squeak into the play-in tournament. They simply aren’t that good.

It’s true that the Spurs have been winning lately, six of their past seven games. But three wins were against a dreadful Portland team and they also beat last place Houston. Denver is in a different class of those aforementioned foes.

The Nuggets are looking to clinch a spot in the top six of the conference standings, which will allow them to avoid the play-in tournament. They just need to win two of their final three games, all of which are at home 

The Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray has been ruled out for tonight. That’s significant. 

Denver has scored 125 or more points in each of its last three contests. This is a team that’s been on fire offensively and without Murray, I don’t see how the Spurs keep up.

The Bulls just can’t beat the top teams in the league. On Saturday, they lost by 16 here at home to the Heat, dropping them to 2-19 for the season against the four best teams in the East and West. The Bulls’ record vs. Milwaukee this year is 0-3, two of those losses coming last month, the last one by 28 points.

Throw in the fact the Bucks are going to come in motivated tonight and I’m all about fading the Bulls in this one. The Bucks have lost two straight. One of the losses saw them give up 153 points. The other, Sunday vs. Dallas, saw them blow an early lead.

That game where Milwaukee allowed 153 points should be disregarded as they rested their starters. The Bucks should be at full strength tonight. Look for Antetokounmpo and Middleton to shoot the ball better than they did vs. Dallas. In that last game, the duo combined to go 15 of 38 from the field and 0 for 7 from three.

The Bulls have the worst point differential of the Eastern Conference’s top six teams. In fact, eight teams in the East have a better point differential. Chicago would be fortunate to avoid the play-in round. 

Milwaukee is all but assured of a top four seed and home court advantage for the first round. But they still have an outside chance at finishing first (2.5 games out) so roll with them Tuesday. The Bucks are 10-1 ATS their last 11 games in Chicago.

For the second half of the Miami game and first half against Villanova, Kansas pretty clearly looked like the best team in the country. They outscored those two opponents 87-44 over that 40 minute span. Now you may consider that to be “cherry picking” the best of the Jayhawks. But at no point in this NCAA Tournament have I ever believed they were in real danger of being eliminated.

North Carolina trailed at the half in the Sweet 16 and Final Four. They also were taken to overtime by Baylor after blowing a 25-point lead. The Tar Heels were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament, so few expected them to get this far. This is the fourth time in six games where the Heels are underdogs. I think their run ends Monday. 

Let’s start with an update on the ankle injury to UNC’s Armando Bacot. Coach Hubert Davis has dubbed him “ready to play,” but having your leading scorer and rebounder injured going into the biggest game of the season is not ideal. Bacot also leads the Tar Heels in blocks and field goal percentage.

I expect David McCormack of Kansas to take advantage of Bacot being less than 100 percent. McCormack went for a season-high 25 against Villanova. Also, don’t forget about Ochai Agbaji, who leads the Jayhawks in scoring. 

Kansas is more experienced on the bench as Bill Self has been here forever and won a National Championship. North Carolina’s Hubert Davis is a rookie coach. The Jayhawks’ top eight scorers have played in a combined 973 games. They were built for this. Lay the points. 

Talk about a shocking performance. The Clippers beat Milwaukee 153-119 on Friday night. Now both teams elected to rest starters in that game. But that can’t take away from the fact that it was the most points scored EVER in a regular season game in Clippers’ history. 

The Clippers are going to be in the play-in tournament, probably as the 8-seed, which means they’ll only have to win once to make the playoffs. That means the Pelicans, currently 9th, will have to win two games in the play-tournament. It would take New Orleans winning all of its remaining games - and the Clippers losing all of theirs - for the teams to trade spaces.

The Pelicans have won the last five meetings vs. the Clippers, including all three this season. I understand that coupled with the fact NO is still looking to guarantee its spot in the play in tournament makes them seem like the more attractive side here. But I still like the Clippers.

New Orleans is just 16-22 on the road and was lucky to come from behind to beat the Lakers on Friday. They came back from 20+ down to beat the Lakers earlier in the week. 

The Clippers have scored at least 121 points in three straight games and I cannot see them being swept in the season series. Paul George is back. Lay the short number.