The Braves are in over their heads again. Alcorn State is off 7 straight losses. 6 of those came by more than 10 points, including each of the last 5. Last game was a 28 point loss. The game before that was a 21-point loss. That is exactly the type of opponent which Maryland wants to see right now. The Terrapins allow 65 points a game at home, the Braves allow 88 points a game on the road. Maryland will win with ease and improve to 11-6 against the spread the last 17 times it faced a team with a losing record. ***CBB Wipeout***

Its been a few years since these teams faced each other. The last time came in 2019 and Penn won by 19 points. Before that, the Quakers won by 17 in 2017. Different faces for today's game but the result will be the same. Howard is 1-4 against the spread, losing all 5 outright, the last 5 times it was a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Bison haven't played since November and that will hurt them. They are 2-4 against the spread their last 6 after playing with 7 or more day's rest. The Quakers are 18-9-1 against the spread in home games the last 2 years. Off a game against Kentucky, they should win this one fairly comfortably. **CBB CRUSHER**

Iowa is 7-3 against the spread its last 10 tries as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 point range. Over that period, Iowa is also 2-0 against the spread after failing to cover in each of the previous 3 games. Michigan is averaging 75.8 points per road game. Iowa is averaging 99.7 points per home game. Hawkeyes won by 9 here last season, covering the -5.5. They do it again this afternoon! ***Conf. Crusher***

The Pacers have been scoring points at a high rate and have done very well to get this far. Lebron may be downplaying it but he is on a mission to add in-season tournament champion to his resume. James, Davis and the Lakers will not be denied. The Lakers have allowed only 89, 103 and 97 points over their last 3 games. Indiana will get more but not as many as it normally does. The Lakers superior defense will be on display on ABC TV and will separate them from the Pacers. ***Non-Conf GOM***

The Dukes are a good team with a national ranking but this will not be an easy game. Far from it. The stadium will be a white-out and the home team and crowd believes it can pull off the upset. "We're a marked team right now," James Madison coach Mark Byington said. "I'm anticipating that Old Dominion crowd being one of the toughest we play all year." Both JMU road games have been by 5 points or less. These teams had one common non-conf. opponent. Last game here, the Monarchs beat Radford. That same Radford team gave JMU real trouble in a 3-point game. The last 2 JMU visits here were decided by 5 and 2 points. The Monarchs, 4-2 against the spread their last 6 tries after 3 straight non-covers, hung within single digits at Arkansas. JMU coach Byington went on to say: "I know they've been excited about our game and it's a really good team, good coach. Great intra-state game. It's a little odd playing in December but here we go." Give me the points. ***Sun Belt GOY***

Give me the points with Florida Gulf Coast. Though the Eagles have gotten off to a tough start, they are better than their sub-500 record indicates. The Eagles brought back 4 of their top 5 scorers (8 of top 10) from a team which won 17 games. The Gophers may be without the versatile Dawson Garcia, as he left last game with a leg injury. The Gophers are a dismal 1-9 against the spread their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Grabe the points!

No Durant. No problem. Even though they're short-handed, the Suns will be bringing their best on Friday night. Remember, that Booker carried the load before Durant arrived and that he can still do so. With Durant out, we get the Suns as underdogs and don't have to worry about laying any points. The Kings are 4-8 against the spread as favorites and they're 3-6 against the spread the past 9 times that they played with 3 or more day's rest. The Suns are 74-31 straight-up their last 105 in this building. They score 118.2 at home compared to Sacramento's 112.9 on the road. Booker will have a monster game and the Suns will move to 12-8 against the spread their last 20 home games with a total of 230 or more. ***Pacific Div GOY***

Give me the points with Eastern Kentucky. The Colonels returned 4 starters from a 23-win team. They are averaging 87.5 points per game. UNC Greensboro is 9-16-1 against the spread at home the last 2 years. The Spartans only returned 1 starter from last year. They are 2-10 against the spread the past 12 times that they scored 80 or more points in their last game. EKU won by 4 last December. This will be another close one. ***Road Warrior***

The Jaguars won 19 games last season and nearly made it to the NCAA Tournament. They've got an excellent backcourt and I look for them to upset Mercer this afternoon. The Jaguars didn't score well at Jacksonville State but they're 10-5 against the spread the last 15 times that they scored 60 or less. Mercer is 1-4 its last 5 games and that lone win came by 1 point. The Bears are only 5-10-2 against the spread the last 17 tries as home favorites of 3 or less. Grab the points. ***EARLY RISER***

The Lakers have managed to win both of this season's games. That changes tonight. The Suns had Durant for the first 2 games but not Booker. Tonight, they'll have both. Booker is averaging 27.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists through 11 games. Each of the first 2 games were very close. Adding Booker to the Suns makes them far more dangerous than the team that LA saw in those first 2 games. The Lakers are 0-3 against the spread on the season, after allowing less than 100 points in their previous games. In two of those instances, they allowed more than 130 points in losing the next game. Booker, Durant and the Suns will take this one. ***Pacific Div. GOM***

San Jose State hosted North Dakota State last week and won 78-65. The Spartans have since played 2 road games, losing them both. They may have some tired legs. The Bison haven't played since the loss at San Jose State. They are 6-4 straight-up the last 10 times that they played with revenge from a road loss, 62-40 their last 102. They are also 5-2 straight-up their last 7 when playing with 5 or 6 day's rest in between games, 50-24 their last 74. They will be the fresher team. The Spartans are 6-24 straight-up their last 30 road games, 0-7 when the total was in the 135 to 139.5 range. They are 5-56 their last 61 in that spot. Bison will have their revenge! ***CBB Revenge GOY***

The Celtics humbled them 155-104 at the beginning of November and the Pacers haven't forgotten! Indiana is 9-4, both straight up and against the spread, its last 13 times in the revenge role. The Pacers lost by 4, in OT, the last time that they hosted the Celtics. The previous meeting here saw Indiana win decisively. The Pacers are averaging 128.8 points a game, most in the league. They just beat Miami 144-129 and they are 14-8 against the spread the past 22 times that they were off a game where they scored 130 or more. Grab the points! ***Eastern Conf. GOM***

Perhaps this isn't the most exciting game on the board but the best value is often found in the lesser known conferences. Utah Valley is projected to be a top 5 team in the WAC Conference. Utah Tech is projected to finish dead last. The Wolverines did lose a lot from last season but new coach Todd Phillips still has a lot to work with. The Trailblazers will play their first home game. They have won only 6 of 20 conference games since joining. Utah Valley won both games last year. With a 44-25 against the spread record their last 69, the Wolverines will win again. ***Road Warrior***

Knowing that they got swept by them last season, the Bulldogs will be too much for the Bears this afternoon. Missouri State hasn't faced competition this good. The Bulldogs will be on of the top teams in the Missouri Valley Conf. again this season. They began conference play by crushing Valparaiso. Their 46-29 second half will act as a springboard into today's game. Bulldogs average 83 points at home. Bears average 68 points on the road. Drake wins by 10+! ***MVC GOM***

Six meetings between these "rivals" since 2006, 2 in the past 2 years. The Aztecs won all six games. All 6 victories came by at least 16 points. This will be another destruction. The Tritons are off 3 straight losses and they've been getting progressively worse. Last loss came by 27 points. That loss came against a team (Washington) which the Aztecs have beaten. Lay the points with the road team and enjoy the beating. ***Road Warrior***

It's not easy to blow a team out two games in a row. Orlando hammered Washington a couple of days ago. It won't happen again! The Wizards have been at their best when off a bad loss. They're 71.4% against the spread when off a loss of 10 or more. Magic 12-15-1 against the spread last 28 when off a win of 10+. Washington coach Wes Unseld Jr: "We just have to get there with a little more urgency..." The Wizards will play with a sense of urgency and they will improve to 13-7 against the spread their last 20 tries after giving up 130+. **southeast GOY**

There's a big difference between the Pac-12 and the Big West. The Beavers will likely find things tough in their own conference. UC Davis may have more success within theirs. That makes winning this non-conference game a priority for the Beavers. They can't afford to squander opportunities against squads from lesser conferences. The Aggies are 0-3 against the spread the past 3 tries as road underdogs of 3 or fewer points. The last time that the Beavers were favored, they won by 10 points, when laying -2.5. They get it done again tonight! ***NOV GOM***

I can understand that some bettors don't like taking a team like the Pistons. Personally, I don't like to pass up opportunities. The Pistons got blown out last night. That has allowed us to get a couple of extra points. Detroit doesn't mind playing 2 games in 2 days though. They have been in that situation 4 times this season. They won 1 game and the other 3 losses all came by 11 or less. They almost upset Denver. They are 17-13-1 against the spread in back to back situations the last 2 years. The Knicks have a division road game tomorrow night. They will be tested. Grab the points! ***Eastern Conf GOW***

The Grizzlies are going to really want this game. They're still winless at home and need to fix that. They're also 0-2 against Utah already this season. They're going to want to fix that, too. Adding to the revenge angle, the most recent of those games had some controversy. Memphis player Jared Jackson got ejected with a double-technical. Coach Jenkins said: "One of the most poorly officiated games I've ever seen," which led to him being fined $25,000 by the NBA. He went on to say: "Our team is competing their tails off, and this is what happens? The interaction right now with the officials, complete disrespect. It's unbelievable. ... I don't understand it." Grizzlies are 40-30-2 against the spread in the revenge role last 2 years, 12-8-2 against the spread when avenging a home loss. They will improve to 16-8 against the spread their last 24, after scoring 100 or less. ***Revenge GOM***

Stephen Austin has a very well-coached team and the program has a lot of pride. They beat Drake but then got blown out by Utah State. That won't sit well. Off its previous loss, SFA won its next game by 26 points. The Lumberjacks are bigger, stronger and more experienced than last year. Importantly, they're also healthier. Last season, they dealt with a lot of injury problems. That isn't an issue so far this season. The Lumberjacks are better than the Texans in the frontcourt and also in the backcourt. They're a team destined to finish near the top of the WAC, Tarleton State should finish near the basement. Texans are 1-7 against the spread last 8 tries when playing with 5 or 6 day's rest. Lay the points. ***WAC GOY***

The Rebels are 3-0 at home, 5-0 overall. The WolfPack are playing their first true road game. They are only 7-13 their last 20 away games, 0-4 SU in road games with a total of 145 to 149.5. The Rebels are finding a way to win close games. Three straight wins of 3 points or less. Wolfpack just gave up 95 points in a loss against BYU. They are 7-13 last 20 times after giving up 80 or more. Rebels keep on winning! **Tuesday Takedown**

First instalment of the ACC/SEC challenge. The Tigers have had some trouble covering as favorites but this is their first time as underdogs. They've won 4 of their last 5 and the only loss was by 1 point. The Panthers just blew out Oregon State but the Beavers are among the worst teams in the Pac-12. Before that the Panthers played an SEC opponent, as they will here, and lost by 15. Florida's defense gave the Panthers trouble and Missouri will use similar methods. The Panthers other games all came against weak opposition. The Tigers will give them fits. Grab the points. **Road Warrior**

The Bison are always a force in the Summit Conference and they've got an experienced team this season. They are more than capable of pulling off the upset tonight. The Spartans lost a lot from last season, including star player Omari Moore. They're already dealing with a few injuries. NDSU lost last game but is still 20-14 against the spread last 2 seasons on the road. They have faced Creighton on the road and they already won outright at Montana. This game will come down to the wire. Grab the points. ***Road Warrior***

Orlando has been rolling but Charlotte is also a lot better than people realize. Myles Bridges has made a big difference. The Hornets are off back to back victories, of those coming against Boston. LaMelo Ball is playing his best. Ball had 34 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds last game. That's 7 times in 9 games that he's scored 30 or more. Bridges said this of Ball: "He's playing at an unbelievable level. He's made the leap into being a superstar. He was an All-Star, but now he's a superstar. If he's not on any of the All-NBA teams I'll be surprised. He's a winner." The Hornets are 5-1 against the spread the past 6 times that they played with 3 or more day's rest. Grab the points. ***Southeast GOM***

The Longhorns will have advantages every step of the way this afternoon against Wyoming. The Cowboys haven't faced this type of quality. Off a loss against Connecticut, Texas will be ready to deliver a blowout. Longhorns are 3-0 at home and every win came by 16 or more points. Texas coach Rodney Terry said this after Monday's loss. "And over these two days, back to back, we really grew up in those areas. We grew up in an area of taking care of the basketball, too, and not beating ourselves. There's a high ceiling for this group. Once we get everybody out there on the floor playing together, it's going be a pretty deep and pretty good team." That will be on full display this afternoon. Texas wins big! ***CBB Dominator***

Maryland has faced some quality opponents, including Villanova. Even so, no team has reached 70 points against the Terrapins. They allow 61.6 points a game. South Alabama gave up 102 to Alabama, in a 102-46 loss. That's bad. Even worse, the Jaguars also gave up 102 to Nicholls State! They allow an average of 79.1 points a game. Not good when you only average 58 points a game on the road. The Terrapins scored more than 90 last game. They will clamp down and dominate, this game turning into another rout. ***CBB Bone-Crusher***

The Bruins are used to being good. So you know that they're going to want to get rid the taste of a blowout loss to Arizona. The Hawks showed that they should be respected when they upset WVU. Don't forget that Monmouth was only 7-26 last year though. Belmont scores more than 80 per game. Monmouth scores less than 70. Bruins are 9-3 against the spread last 12 lined games after allowing 80 or more points. Give the solid MVC team over the mediocre CAA squad. **CBB Crusher**

These teams are more equally matched that you might think. They played a close game against each other last season, NC State winning by 4. The Wolfpack are 1-4 against the spread their last 5 in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 144.5. The Commodores are 5-0 against the spread in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 144.5. In all neutral site games, Vanderbilt is 8-2 against the spread its past 10. This will be another close one. Grab the points! ***best bet***

These are two good teams. Both are undefeated. Both were just involved in a 3-point game. The Miners didn't even shoot well in their win over Cal and still got it down. Their lockdown defense was the difference. Coach Joe Golding said: "What a game. We were out of whack it seems like the whole game. We were shorthanded, we got in foul trouble. We had different lineups on the floor ..." Braves are only 3-9 against the spread last 12 times they played on a neutral court. I'll take the points! ***CBB BEST BET***

The Jazz already beat this team and they will do so again tonight. Both teams played yesterday. The Jazz are healthier and deeper. They will be able to handle the back-to-back situation more effectively. The Jazz are 3-1 against the spread here the last 2 years. Points might seem attractive until you learn that Portland is a putrid 45-72 against the spread as an underdog the last 2 years. The Jazz are favored for only the 3rd time. They were 2-0 against the spread in the first two occasions. Both were big wins. Lay the points. **Road Warrior**

After playing 3 games in 4 days, the Hawks got a nice break. They are coming in rested and ready to go. After this comes Brooklyn and then a long stretch on the road. It's imperative that the Hawks make hay while the sun is shining. The Pacers can't be trusted on the road. They are getting outscored by an average score of 132.7 to 121.7 in their away games. The Hawks scored 143 against them last meeting here! They will drop a massive number on this defensively challenged team once again. Indiana will score a lot, just not enough. Let's go Hawks! ***Eastern Conf. GOM***

Prairie View has a nice against the spread record but is outmatched in this game. The Panthes were 13-19 last season and they didn't return a single starter. The Colonels won 23 games last year and brought back most of that team. Determined to make it to the NCAA Tournament, this is the type of opponent which they can crush. They can and they will! Eastern Kentucky is 10-3 against the spread last 13 tournament games. PV is 0-5 against the spread last 5 as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. Lay the points! ***Tourney Wake and Make***

The Lumberjacks will be good within the WAC and potentially could even make their way back to the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference though and they have looked good in winning all their games. They just narrowly missed out on a couple covers. Without having to worry about covering a big number in this one, look for Drake to finish on top and move to 3-0 straight up and against the spread, its last 3 against WAC competition. **Eye Opener**

The Aztecs are always good. Last year, they had a deep NCAA Tournament run. They're going to be a solid again. They're not unbeatable though and they're a team that doesn't always score that many points, which leads to close games. Who could forget their dramatic 1-point wins in last year's tournament. The Huskies followed up a close loss to Nevada with a close win against Xavier. Off that victory, Washington coach Mike Hopkins said afterward: "Sometimes shots don't fall, sometimes foul shots don't fall, but you got to keep fighting," "We won this game because we were tough. We rebounded. We got stops when we had to get stops and that's why we won. That's why I was so proud of these guys. They kept fighting. It wasn't perfect, but they just kept fighting." This one likely gets decided at the final buzzer. Grab the points! ***Tournament GOM***

Portland rested yesterday. OKC played against the Warriors. This will be the first time this season that the Thunder play a "road" game after having played the previous night. The Thunder got destroyed in their only previous division game. The Thunder won all 4 meetings last season. All four games were won by 9 or fewer points though and 3 of them were decided by 6 or less, 2 by 3 or less. Really close games from these division rivals! Portland has a great chance of winning this game and will at least keep it close again. Grab the points! **Northwest Div. GOY**

Bucks have finally gotten it going. Mavericks are at the end of a road trip. Bucks swept last year's 2 games. and they won by 9 in their home game. Bucks coach Adrian Griffin said the following after last night's big victory: "I love how we shared the ball and moved the ball and we're looking for each other. That's something we've been stressing in the last probably week or so." Mavericks are only 24-38-4 against the spread last 66 in Non-Conf action. The Bucks will get this done! ***Non-Conf GOW***

The Celtics are definitely playing well but they've got a few question marks for tonight. Brown and Porzingis are questionable. Horford is probable but not 100%. Those are 3 important players to this team. Even if all 3 go, they could play at less than their usual potential. Regardless of what lineup the Celtics ultimately settle on, they are going to face a very competitive Toronto team. The Raptors just got blown out by the Bucks. They are 20-14 against the spread their past 34 times they were off a loss of 10 or more points, 21 outright wins. Over the same period, they are 49-42 against the spread in the revenge role, 54-40 against teams with a winning record. Boston is only 30-39 against the spread against losing teams over that time. Both the Celtics losses have come on the road. The Celtics allow 108.7 points on the road and the Raptors allow 108.8 at home. The last time Boston played here, it was a 2-point game. The time before that, it was a 4-point Toronto win. Grab the points! ***Atlantic Div GOY***

Michigan looked great in beating St. John's. The Wolverines are absolutely a talented team. They lost a lot from last year though and are dealing with the absence of Juwan Howard. Off the trip to MSG and with some big games coming up after this one, it won't be easy to blow out Long Beach State. Not with the talent, depth and experience that the Beach players have. They hung within 12 at San Diego State, after close games at Depaul and Portland. They will give the Wolverines trouble today! ***Road Warrior***

Nets won when these teams played at Miami on November 1. It marked the 4th loss in a row for the Heat, who were dealing with some injuries at the time. Since then, the Heat have found their groove. They've won 6 straight games since the Nets were here last. Heat are 22-14 against the spread, last 36, after playing previous 3 on the road. Brooklyn just 19-32 against the spread last 51 after allowing 105 or fewer points. Lay the small number with Miami! ***pick and roll***

Bonnies will win this game outright, in my opinion. Cowboys are 3-5 against the spread last 8 on a neutral court. Even with a slow start, St. Bonaventure is 9-5 against the spread last 14 in the month of November. 11 outright wins. The Bonnies played in Metro NY last season and had success. That experience will serve them well today. They are much closer to home than the Cowboys. Grab the points! ***Tourney Shocker***

Red Storm weren't ready for Michigan but they will have plenty to take on North Texas. That loss to the Wolverines wasn't fun but it will act as a wake-up AND a warm-up for the Red Storm. They will benefit from the experience. St. John's is 5-1 against the spread last 6 neutral site games, 7-2 against the spread last 9 tournament games. Pitino admitted that it will take time for his team to hit their stride. Behind the scenes he's demanding more. He will have the Red Storm ready and they will bounce back with a win and cover this afternoon. ***tourney takedown

Pacific is off a nice upset of Cal. The Tigers are only 5-13 against the spread the past 18 times that they scored 80 or more points though and Nevada is a really tough team. Already 2-0, the WolfPack just beat Washington. The Tigers are also 3-13 against the spread, their last 16 tries as road underdogs of 12.5 to 16 points. Tigers are also still only 9-22 against the spread last 31 against winning teams. Tigers get a nice 5-game homestand after this. First, they take their lumps on the road. ***wednesday wipeout***

With a cover tonight, the Grizzlies will improve to 33-17 against the spread their last 50 times up against Pacific Division opponents. They upset the Clippers last game. It seems that Davis and Lebron are permanently probable/questionable/doubtful but the Lakers do have a revenge game against Sacramento on Wednesday. Its not impossible to imagine Lebron missing tonight, after he missed last game (his first) with a calf contusion. Though still without Morant, the Grizzlies are coming together. They will surprise the Lakers tonight. ***western conf. wipeout***

The Aggies are 0-2 against the spread so far but they will fix that today. UC Davis has strong guard play. A lack of size in the frontcourt won't hurt them against a North Dakota State team which is off an 89-60 loss. In lined games, the Bison are 4-9 against the spread the last 13 times after they allowed 80 or more points. They are also 8-14 against the spread in non-conf action and 3-6 in tournament play. Lay the small number! ***Tourney Dominator***

Everything worked out for the Gauchos last year. They set school records and went back to the NCAA Tournament. They've got a good program. The Gauchos lost quite a lot from last year though and it will take time for the newcomers to gel. That showed itself in their opening game upset loss against Portland State. The Miners are excited about their team. They crushed their first 2 opponents and will rise to the occasion of hosting a team that went to the Big Dance last year. Gauchos are only 4-6 against the spread last 10 as underdogs. Lay the small number. ***Slam Dunk Club***

Suns have handled the Thunder here and they blew them out the last meeting on this floor. Though Booker is doubtful, Beal is probable. This game is projected to be high-scoring, total of 235, and those are the kind of games that suit the Suns well. The Suns are 28-12 straight-up and 25-15 against the spread the past 40 times that they played a game with a total listed at 230 or more. Only previous time this season was an opening game win against the Warriors. Suns wins. ***western conf. wipeout

Turnabout is fair play. The Wizards just beat the Hornets in Charlotte. Now, the Hornets will beat the Wizards in Washington. The Wizards are only 23-33 against the spread, when laying points, the last 2 years. Hornets 2-1 ATS on the road and a respectable 45-38 (better than 54% and much better than their home against the spread statistics) Over that time, the Wizards have only 1 win in 9 tries, after scoring 130 or more points. Today, the Hornets will settle the score! ***NBA Road Warrior

Big Game and big opportunity for the Buckeyes. They are at home with a chance to take down a top 15 program. Off a close win in the first game, Ohio State coach Chris Holtmann commented: "I give our guys a ton of credit. They found a way to get some stops and make some necessary plays down the stretch in a game that could've gone either way." The Buckeye players are ready and excited for today. Zed Key: "...I know we are all looking forward to playing such a big game this early in the season. Be there on Friday." Bruce Thornton: "You look for those big games. That's one of the reasons we came to Ohio State, to play a top-15 team in the country (at home). I'm ready for Friday." Thornton and Key combined with Gayle Jr. for 51 points in the Buckeyes first game. Catching the Aggies, 13-23 against the spead their last 36 as road underdogs of 3 or less, playing their first road game, that trio will lead the Buckeyes to a victory tonight. **

Both teams won last night. The Bucks won a close one and the Pacers won a blowout. Milwaukee is better suited to play two games in two days. The Bucks' only against the spread victory came the only previous time that they played the second back-to-back games. The Pacers lost outright to Charlotte when they previously played the second of back-to-back games this season. It's only November 9th but this will already be Indiana's 6th game this month. The Bucks have played one less this month and this season. In this back-to-back situation, that extra game will contribute to Indiana's tired legs. The Bucks are 6-2 against the spread their last 8 against the Pacers, a perfect 4-0 in games played at Indiana. Go Bucks! ***Central Div GOY

James Madison somehow managed to knock off Michigan State in its opening game. Off that upset, the Dukes are walking into a hornet's next. With a 79-58 win in their home opener, the Golden Flashes extended their home game winning streak at home to 23 in a row. The Flashes are 17-7-1 against the spread when playing a game with a total in the 140 to 149.5 range, 5-1 against the spread in home games with a total of 145 to 149.5. They are also a perfect 4-0 against the number when favored at home between 3.5 and 6 points. James Madison showed it can play with anyone but tonight will belong to Kent State. ***MAC-SBC CHALLENGE WINNER!

The Kings are the much better team and they will blow out the TrailBlazers tonight. They beat Portland 138-114 last meeting and 120-80 the previous meeting. The one before that was a 17-point win for Sacramento. Portland is a terrible 43-68 against the spread in the underdog role the last 2 years. Kings are 18-7 against the spread their last 25 times that they were off 3 or more losses in a row. Sacramento in a blowout! ***western conf. GOW

Over the past 2 seasons, North Texas is 2-0 against the spread as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Mean Green have won 27 or their last 32 home games. An excellent defensive team, North Texas allowed just 53 points a game at home last season! Northern Iowa gave up 71.6 points per game on the road! Last 2 years, Northern Iowa is just 6-13 against the spread in non-conference lined games. Lay the points! ***CBB dominator

The Kings struggled without Fox when these teams recently met. They've got enough to overcome his absence tonight. Davian Mitchell will draw the start again. They won't loss two in a row to the Rockets. Kings are 18-10 against the spread last 28, off an upset loss as a favorite. Rockets are 7-13-1 against the spread (3-18 money-line) after allowing 105 or less. Kings will have their revenge! ***nba road warrior

The Buffaloes have struggled to cover as favorites the last couple of seasons. The Tigers have been good at covering as underdogs. Things will change for at least today. Towson lost some important pieces. Cam Holden graduated and Nicolas Timberlake transferred to Kansas. The duo, which combined for more than 32 points per game, will be missed against a tough opponent like Colorado. The Buffaloes are for real. Deep and talented, this is one of Coach Boyle's best teams. The Buffaloes will begin their year with a big win which will bring them to 23-13-2 against the spread as -12.5 to -15 point home favorites. **Opening Day Rout

The Hornets have had 2 days off. They're coming in fresh. Expect a big game from Charlotte's frontline of Mark Williams and P.J. Washington against an Indiana team involved in a back-to-back spot. Recent games between these clubs have been close. Charlotte won the last by 6, an outright win as an underdog. With that result, the Hornets improved to 5-1 against the spread their past 6 against the Pacers. Give me the points. ***road warrior

This is what I said before Cleveland's last game: "The Knicks beat up on the Cavaliers last night in Cleveland. As they say, turnabout is fair play. With a chance to immediately right that wrong, the Cavaliers will elevate their intensity for the rematch ... They start the new month with an upset." Sure enough. The Cavaliers delivered me an upset victory, holding NY to 89 points. Once again, they get an early chance to exact some revenge against a team which has already beaten them. The Pacers caught them in a back-to-back situation the first game but that's not happening this time. The Cavaliers won by 19 last time they were on this floor and they'll win again tonight! ***eastern conf gow

This is a bad spot for the Spurs. They just stunned the Suns a couple of days ago. The Suns let them hang around and the Spurs took advantage with a last second victory. Rest assured, the Suns won't make the same mistake twice. It's a new month and these teams are going to go in opposite directions, starting tonight. The Spurs were 10-18 against the spread the past two Novembers, winning only five games straight-up. The Suns were 20-11 against the spread the past two Novembers, 26 of those resulting in outright victories. The Suns have been at their best off an upset loss the last 2 years. They're 21-11 against the spread in that situation. Expect a decisive victory! ***nov gom

The Knicks beat up on the Cavaliers last night in Cleveland. As they say, turnabout is fair play. With a chance to immediately right that wrong, the Cavaliers will elevate their intensity for the rematch. The Knicks lost their only home game this year and are just 38-47-3 ATS here the past two seasons. The Cavaliers, who won this year's only road game, were 18-9-3 ATS the past two Novembers. They start the new month with an upset. ***road warrior

Raptors fought really hard only to lose by a point to the Bulls last night. It was a game that they had seemingly locked up. Blowing the lead will hurt their play today. Philadelphia rested. The 76'ers won the last three meetings. Last game in Canada resulted in a 112-90 victory for the visiting 76'ers. The 76'ers are 91-34 from a straight-up perspective the past 125 times that they were favored. They're more talented than the Raptors and they'll have much fresher legs. With their coach looking to get back at his former team, the 76'er will improve on that record while also covering the pointspread. *Atlantic Div GOM

We played against the Lakers in their Opening Night loss. That was at Denver, Jokic and the defending champions were getting their rings. A home game against a Suns team expected to be without Beal is a different story. Phoenix is only 30-41 ATS last 71 after allowing 105 points or less. Lakers beat the Suns by 14 last meeting here. The home team won all four meetings by double-figures. Lebron and the Lakers get it done in front of the home fans. *Western Conf. GOM

The Pacers haven't won a season opener since 2020. That changes this evening. The Wizards beat the Pacers here in last year''s opener. This year, Washington has gone through a major rebuild and won't be ready to compete the entire way with Indiana in this one. Wizards only 34-45-3 ATS last 82 on the road. Pacers lost the opener against the Wizards but are still 36-14 SU the last 50 meetings and they won by 10 the last time they hosted the Wizards. I've got them taking advantage of the favorable matchup and winning this one by at least that many. *Eastern Conf GOM

The Nuggets will be raising their championship banner and getting their championship rings and will not let the Lakers come in and spoil the party. When handing out championship rings, teams are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the last last ten years. Though they may lack some depth, the Nuggets starting five is very strong. The Lakers have a lot of new faces. They should be competitive this season but they won't be ready to compete with Jokic and the champions tonight. The Nuggets are 68-27 at home the past 2 years. They pull away down the stretch for a big win. *TNT Thunder

You know the setup. The Nuggets won Game 1 and the Heat came back to win Game 2. The Heat may have stolen homecourt advantage but the Nuggets are still heavily favored to win the series. Most shops have them in the -275 range to do so. That means that they're expected to win at least one game at Miami. No time like the present to make that happen either. The only other time that the Nuggets were tied in a series was Game 5 against the Suns. Denver won by 16 and only trailed for 14 seconds of that entire game. The Nuggets are 3-0 straight-up and ATS their last three when tied in a series and they're 12-7-2 ATS when coming off an upset loss as favorite. The Heat are only 7-13 ATS when playing with 2 day's rest. Lay the small number with the Nuggets in Game 3. *Playoff GOY

The Celtics have now done what only 14 teams previous to them have accomplished. That is to force a Game 6 after falling 0-3 in a playoff series. Now they seek to do what only three other teams have done after falling behind 0-3 - force a Game 7. (No team has ever come back to win the series after being down 0-3). 

Boston’s confidence has to be booming after the 110-97 win in Game 5. Basically, they led for double digits the entire game. Meanwhile, Miami’s confidence has to be waning. This was a Heat team that was really overachieving; they finished the regular season with a negative point differential and negative net efficiency. 

The Heat are 5-11 ATS this season following a double digit loss. Gabe Vincent (ankle) remains questionable for tonight and we know Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are already out. This team is running out of bodies and is really reliant on Jimmy Butler carrying the scoring load.

Boston, on the other hand, had four 20+ point scorers in Game 5. They’ve shot 51% as a team the last two games including 40% from three. It’ll be difficult to maintain those percentages, but there is no denying which of these two teams has the deeper roster. 

The thing about Miami is they actually shot well in Game 5 and still ended up with only 97 points. All the momentum in this series has shifted and I’m laying the short number with the better team. 10* 

The Lakers (barely) covered the spread in both Games 1 and 2, but my view is that even at home in a desperate situation, they should not be laying this many points to the top-seeded Nuggets.

Yes, LA did have the lead for most of Game 2 before succumbing late (but, again, still covering). However, they were largely dominated for most of Game 1 and did not deserve to get the cash in that game. 

I know Denver isn’t nearly the same team on the road as they are at home, but this is too many points considering their only three losses this postseason have been by a total of 18 points. 

LeBron James has been miserable from three in the playoffs (23.3%) including 0 for 10 in this series alone. The Lakers are not a good three-point shooting team, making it difficult to build/maintain the kind of lead they need to cover this number.

Also, Reaves and Hachimura are due for some regression. Unless Anthony Davis steps up in a major way, I don’t see how the Lakers win this game, let alone cover. 10* 

Might as well start by pointing out that teams who lose Game 1 at home are 21-1 straight up and 20-2 ATS in Game 2 going back to 2019. Boston fits that profile tonight, so I’ll be laying the points. 

The Celtics were in this exact same situation in the last round. They dropped Game 1 to Philadelphia, 119-115 as a 10.5-point favorite. They immediately bounced back, winning Game 2 121-87, laying a similar number. 

The trend mentioned above is a perfect 7-0 SU this season, five of those wins coming by 14 points or greater. 

I can’t see Miami shooting 51% from three again nor do I see them shooting 54% overall from the field. 

The Heat have “stolen” Game 1 on the road in all three series this postseason. But they are 0-2 thus far in Game 2’s, losing at Milwaukee by 16 and New York by 6.  The Celtics are 20-10 SU off a loss and should win big tonight. 10* 

For most of the 48 minutes in Game 1, Denver clearly looked like the better team. But the Nuggets did not cover the closing number, either pushing or failing to cover depending on your shop. I fully anticipate they will cover the spread here in Game 2.

Both teams shot nearly 55% from the floor in Game 1 and roughly 46% from three. Playing on the road, it is the Lakers that are more likely to experience offensive regression in Game 2. This is a team that shoots the three at only 34.5% for the year. Denver is shooting 51% for the year here at home.

The Nuggets are also typically much better at the defensive end at home. In Game 1, they gave up 72 points in the second half. This is a team that came into the WCF ranked #2 in the league, allowing just over 108 points/game on its home court. 

Not only do I not see Anthony Davis scoring another 40 for LA, Austin Reaves (23 points) and Rui Hachimura (17) won’t match their Game 1 scoring either.

The Lakers are 2-9 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 130 or more points. Denver is 41-7 SU at home, winning by an average of 10.3 points per game. 

Going back to last Saturday, NBA home teams are 12-2 straight up and 10-3-1 against the spread. The only two SU losses both came in this series, the last two games where Philadelphia won Game 5 in Boston and then the Celtics returned the favor at Philly in Game 6. 

I look for “order” to be restored in Game 7, however. What a brutal loss for the 76ers Thursday as they shot 36.1% overall from the field including 8 of 34 (23.5%) from three. I had the Under, so I was happy with the final score being 95-86. 

The Celtics being +21 from beyond the three-point line was huge in Game 6. Since Game 1, there hasn’t been a game in the series where they were outscored from three. 

76ers’ head coach Doc Rivers has blown three 3-1 series leads in his career. This would be “just” 3-2, but I have little confidence in Doc. He has lost NINE Game 7’s, by far the most of any coach in history. Home teams also win Game 7 at a very high percentage. 

The Celtics won Game 6 despite Jayson Tatum missing 14 of his first 15 shot attempts. You’ve got to figure he’ll shoot much better at home Sunday. Boston is the better team. 10* 

The Knicks staved off elimination once, now let’s see if they can do it again Friday on the road. They obviously come into Miami as underdogs, but that’s okay considering the Heat’s somewhat lousy 22-37-2 ATS mark as favorites this season. I’m taking the points in Game 6 tonight.

It was just a three-point lead at halftime for the Knicks in Game 5 as they got off to a really slow start (just 14 pts in the 1Q). From there, they took control in the second half, going up by as many as 19 before Miami made a late push. The trio of Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Julius Randle once again carried the scoring load (88 combined points) with Brunson’s 38 leading the way. The Knicks also shot much better than normal from three (38.2%), at least by this series’ standard.

I don’t necessarily expect NY to shoot as well from three tonight. But I also don’t expect them to fall into an early hole like they did in the last game. Playing for their season, you know you’re getting their best effort for 48 minutes. I also have my doubts about Miami, who isn’t capable of scoring a ton without Jimmy Butler going off.

The Heat are only shooting 43% from the field in this series and 31% from three. I’m not exactly sure why this spread is larger than both Games 3 and 4 at home. 

Going back to the start of the series against Cleveland, the Knicks are allowing just 100.1 points/game. Given that points figure to be at a premium again tonight, I want to be on the dog. 8* 

The Suns need to win Game 6 to stay alive and I think they will, with room to spare, so I’m laying the points.

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant have both been other-worldly in this series, combining to average 65 points/game. The thing is they need help. Last home game they got help from Landry Shamet, who scored 19 thanks to making five threes. Whether it’s Shamet or someone else on this Suns’ roster, expect someone to “lend a helping hand” at home tonight.

Denver is 40-7 SU at home, but they are sub-.500 on the road with the scoring differential going from +10.3 at home to -3.0 on the road. So that’s why there’s such a drastic change in the spread from the last game to this one. 

In the two previous home games in this series, Phoenix averaged 125 points on 53% shooting. Denver is simply not the same team defensively on the road as they are at home. 

At home and trailing in the series, the Suns are a perfect 3 for 3 ATS. 10*

Golden State’s season is on the line tonight after blowing a double digit lead on the road in Game 4. They led the Lakers by as many as 12 in the second half, but a second straight uncharacteristically poor performance at the offensive end doomed them. 

In the two games down in LA, the Warriors shot below 30% from three. Steph Curry was only 3 of 14 on 3PA in Game 4. Now back home, you’ve got to expect a better showing at the offensive end from Curry and his teammates. After all, they are 36-10 straight up and 30-16 ATS at the Chase Center in 2022-23. 

But much of the reason the Warriors are so much better at home than on the road is because of their defense. They are basically allowing 10 fewer points/game at home compared to the road. 

The Lakers are not an efficient team offensively and have shot worse than 30% from three in all but three playoff games. 

After back to back road losses in Sacramento in the first round, the Warriors responded with a 17-point win here at home. Up 3-1 in the first round vs. Memphis, the Lakers lost Game 5 (on the road) by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. 10* 

The Knicks got strong performances out of Julius Randle (20 points), Jalen Brunson (32) and R.J. Barrett (24) in Game 4, but the rest of the team combined to score only 25 points and as a result, they are down 3-1 in this best of seven series.

But the good news is that Game 5 is at Madison Square Garden. Last time here, the Knicks won 111-105 and shot 40% from three. The other three games have seen dreadful three-point shooting from NY. My hope here is that we’ll see a shooting effort along the lines of Game 2.

I also don’t think the Knicks will be outrebounded the way they were in the two games at Miami. In the regular season, New York was the #2 rebounding team in the entire NBA. 

Defensively, the Knicks have little to worry about. They’ve given up an average of just 99.7 points/game this postseason, which is pretty remarkable in 2023. Miami hasn’t exactly shot the lights out in this series either, though Jimmy Butler has carried the load offensively. 

I’m not really a believer in this Heat team, which is an 8-seed and was on the verge of losing to Chicago in the play-in tournament. They had a negative point differential and net efficiency in the regular season. Them making a Conference Final (would be first 8-seed to do so since 1999) would be rather shocking to me. 10*

Phoenix has come back to tie this series up 2-2, but they have needed herculean efforts from both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, plus a breakout effort from Landry Shamet in Game 4. 

Durant and Booker have combined for a ridiculous 273 points in this series with Booker shooting 66.7% from three and 34 of 43 overall the last two games. Shamet’s breakthrough in Game 4 came out of nowhere (he’d scored just 14 points total this postseason, previously!)

I just can’t see Durant and Booker continuing that pace, Booker specifically, and the Suns’ role players are unlikely to contribute much with the series moving back to Denver.

At home, the Nuggets are allowing just 108.5 points/game for the year, second best in the league. They are simply a much better team at home where they’ve gone 39-7 SU (+10.2 PPG) as opposed to 20-25 SU (-3.0 PPG) on the road.

Nikola Jokic (53 points in Game 4) won’t be suspended, so he’s a go. It’s also time for someone on the Nuggets other than Jokic or Jamal Murray to step up. Similar to Shamet for Phoenix in the last game, I expect someone will. Certainly, Denver will get more than 11 bench points tonight. Lay the points. 10*

The last two games of this series have both been blowouts, each team winning at home. The Warriors now look to bounce back in Game 4 and even the series at two games apiece. I like the defending champs plus the points.

It was a horrible shooting night for Golden State in Game 3 as they made only 39.6% from the field and 29.5% from three. They were also -20 in FT attempts. Meanwhile, the Lakers shot 52.5% from three and were an uncharacteristic 48.4% from three.

I say “uncharacteristic” because six of the previous seven games saw LA shoot worse than 30% from three. 

Anthony Davis had 25 points last game, 11 of those coming from the charity stripe. Davis has yet to have back to back games this postseason with 20+ points. 

I know that Golden State has generally been terrible on the road this year, but they have won at least one road game in every series since Steve Kerr took over, including two in Sacramento last round. This is a team known for bouncing back from a bad loss. 10* 

Golden State tied this series up with a convincing 127-100 victory in Game 2, shooting 50% overall and from three. But now they’re on the road - where they simply have not been the same team in 2022-23. 

The Warriors are 13-32 straight up and 14-30-1 ATS on the road this season. However, they have won their last two road games, both at Sacramento. 

My big concern with the Lakers is that they simply do not shoot the three well enough to stay with Golden State.  In six of their eight playoff games thus far, LA has shot worse than 30 percent from behind the arc. 

Also, as I’m sure you’ve heard, the Warriors have won at least one road game in every playoff series under Steve Kerr. 

The Dubs flat out looked like the better team in Game 2 and I see no reason why we shouldn't take them as underdogs here in Game 3. 10*

I just can’t trust the Heat as favorites, especially with all the injuries. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are of course out for the season while, more importantly, Jimmy Butler remains questionable due to an ankle.

Even at full strength, Miami is terrible as a home favorite. They are 13-23-2 ATS this season as chalk in South Beach, not to mention 20-37-2 ATS as favorites of any kind. 

If Butler can’t go, that’s two of the Heat’s three 20+ point scorers out of the lineup. I just don’t know where else the production would come from. They only scored 105 without Butler in Game 2. 

The Knicks lost Game 1, but they didn’t have Julius Randle, their top scorer. He, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett combine to average 68.7 points per game and they are all now healthy.

Big edge in rebounding for the Knicks as well in the first two games (+25). This team is 26-18 SU/28-15-1 ATS on the road. 10* 

Golden State is only 48 hours removed from winning a Game 7 on the road while the Lakers have had two more days rest after finishing off Memphis with an emphatic 40-point win. 

But the Warriors are 21-4 straight up in Game 1’s under Steve Kerr including 19-2 at home (did lose Gm 1 at Sacramento in Rd 1) while LeBron James is just 4-14 SU in his career in road Game 1’s.

So I’m going to go ahead and lay the points in this one. Golden State is simply a different team at home - where they are 35-9 SU and 29-15 ATS this year. Defensively is where we see the most improvement home vs. road with the Warriors. They allow just 111.8 points per game at home compared to 121.8 pn the road.

In two of the three games at Memphis in the first round, the Lakers failed to score 100 points. This is a problem facing a Warriors team that scores an average of 119.2 points at home. 

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Warriors are 66-37 ATS at home when the total is 220 or higher. 8*

The Knicks really “gave” Game 1 away in my view. They were leading by double digits after the first quarter and then up 55-50 going into halftime. But ice cold shooting from three-point land doomed them. They finished the game a woeful 7 of 34 (20.6%) from long range. Let’s also not forget they missed 8 of 20 free throw attempts.

So I’ll lay the points again in Game 2 … Miami was already without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Now Jimmy Butler is dealing with an ankle injury and that is obviously a major problem. Butler is clearly the Heat’s best player and carried them again with 25 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1. 

If Butler were to miss this game, I’d say the Heat have zero chance of winning.

Plus, NY could get Julius Randle back. Even if Randle doesn’t return, I expect Jalen Brunson to have a bounce back effort after he went 0 for 7 from three in Game 1. 

Miami is the ONLY playoff team that ended the regular season with a negative net efficiency rating. They also have a losing road record. After overperforming tremendously in the first round, at least at the offensive end, this is a team due for some serious regression - whether Butler can go or not. (Reports are that Butler’s ankle has swollen to the size of a baseball). 10*

Phoenix fell victim to some hot shooting from Denver, specifically from Jamal Murray, in Game 1 and that is why they came up short, 125-107. 

The good news for the Suns is that their two superstars - Kevin Durant and Devin Booker - both played well in Game 1. That duo combined for 56 points. Now they just need their teammates to “step it up.” 

The Nuggets were 16 of 37 from three and had 17 more FG attempts than the Suns in Game 1. Murray was 6 of 10 himself from three on his way to 34 points. I don’t see him matching that production in Game 2. 

Despite being the 4-seed, Phoenix is the betting favorite in this series and to win the Western Conference. I think they’re a great value as an underdog tonight.

The Suns only attempted five threes in the 1H Saturday night, but then started launching in the 2H. They only made seven threes for the game, a number they should easily exceed tonight and thus I like them to cover the spread. 10* 

I like the Knicks here in Game 1 of their second round series against the Heat.

Miami clearly overachieved in Round 1 vs. Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a couple games vs. the Bucks, but more notably the Heat averaged 124 points/game in the series, a double digit increase over what they averaged in the regular season. I expect some offensive regression from the visitors on Sunday.

New York just held Cleveland to an average of 94.2 points/game in the first round series. That’s a tremendous defensive effort. 

The Knicks have covered 24 of their last 35 games overall. The Heat are still only 19-25 SU and 18-26 ATS on the road this season.

Just don’t think this spread is large enough. Miami comes in short-handed as both Herro and Oladipo have been lost for the season. The Knicks are at full strength. 10* 

Atlanta shocked us all by winning Game 5 in Boston, 119-117 as 13-point underdogs. Over the final nine minutes, the Hawks outscored the Celtics 30-15 with Trae Young putting the exclamation point on things with a three-point bomb to win it with just two seconds remaining.

Atlanta made 19 threes in the game, none bigger than Young’s obviously, and making the result all the more shocking is that the Hawks were without Dejounte Murray (suspended).

Murray returns tonight as the series returns to Atlanta. But it’s difficult to ignore the fact the Celtics dominated Game 5 for three quarters, outscoring the Hawks 60-38 in the paint and 24-8 in transition.

I see Boston ending the series tonight and will lay the points. The Celtics are clearly the better team and have been ahead most of the series.

The Hawks are awful defensively (119.3 points/game allowed in this series) and won’t shoot 46% again from three. 10* 

It’s do or die in Game 4 for the Timberwolves, who are facing elimination at home. Denver has taken the first three games of this best of seven series, 109-80, 122-113 and 120-111. The Nuggets are shooting 52.1% for the series after going 57.1% in Game 3, which included 13 of 32 from three.

Minnesota has outscored Denver in just one of the 12 quarters in this series. 

But I expect a fired up effort by the home team in Game 4 with the season on the line. Denver isn’t likely to shoot as well as it did in the last game. It’s absolutely worth noting that the Nuggets have only prevailed by single digits each of the last two games despite shooting over 55% from the field.

Denver isn’t a great road team either. For the season, they have a losing record away from home, getting outscored by almost three points per game.

Minnesota is 9-2 ATS this season following three straight losses. They are 8-3 straight up in those games as well. 10*

Ja Morant remains questionable for Game 3, but regardless if the Memphis’ star plays or not, I’m rolling with the Lakers.

LA took Game 1 128-112, thanks to four different players scoring 20 or more points. Predictably, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura cooled off in Game 2 and the Grizzlies, at home, were able to win without Ja, 103-93 as slight underdogs. 

But now the Grizz are on the road where they’ve gone just 14-26-2 ATS this season and they may be without their best player yet again.

Outside of LeBron James and Hachimura, the rest of the Lakers shot just 24.2% in Game 2. That number will go up by a lot here in Game 3. 

Memphis is 0-5 ATS the last five games off a SU win and 1-7-1 ATS their last 9 games after an ATS win.  10* 

Not like this is some big revelation, but the Cavaliers have a very young roster with little playoff experience. This will be the first road playoff game for most and I see the team struggling tonight at Madison Square Garden in Game 3 against the Knicks.

Cleveland simply isn’t the same team away that they were at home. On the road this season, they are 17-21 straight up. Also, they are just 4-14 SU and 6-11 ATS in games where they are priced as an underdog.

Give the Cavs credit for a good season, but they benefited from a fortunate 7-0 SU record in overtime games and really dominated the lesser teams on the schedule (30-5 SU vs. sub-.500 teams). Against teams that have a winning record, the Cavs are just 22-27 SU this year.

The fact that the Knicks were able to escape Cleveland with a 1-1 split is actually encouraging when you consider they shot below 40% in the two games combined, including 15 of 58 from three. Back home, I expect far better offensive numbers tonight. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season following a game in which they scored 100 points or less. They scored 90 in Game 2. 

The Knicks are still 4-2 SU vs. Cleveland this year and I think they are really being undervalued in this spot. Look for a strong start by the home team tonight as they average more than 60 points per game in the 1H at home. That strong start should carry them to a Game 3 victory. 10* 

The Warriors are down 0-2 in a series for the first time under Steve Kerr and won’t have Draymond Green (suspended) for Game 3. 

But the good news for Warriors’ fans is that home teams down 0-2 in a series are 50-26 SU in Game 3. I wouldn’t be concerned about laying the points as the SU winner has also covered the spread in every playoff game this season and 44 straight times going back to last season. 

Plus Golden State is a much different team at home than on the road (where they are a woeful 12-30 ATS). They are 33-8 SU and 28-13 ATS at the Chase Center.

Over the course of the first two games, the Warriors outshot the Kings - both overall and from three-point land. 

I worry about this young Kings’ team in its first playoff road game. Also, even after dropping Game 2, the Warriors are still 22-14 ATS off a playoff loss. 10*

I will role with Phoenix in Game 1 as this is a completely different team when Kevin Durant plays (8-0 SU, outscoring opponents by 11.6 per 100 possessions)

When Durant plays with Devin Booker, the Suns have a +18.4 net rating and average 124.7 points per 100 possessions. They are a deserved favorite to come out of the Western Conference. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers don’t have Paul George for this series. They do have Kawhi Leonard, but I don’t think that’s enough to stay with the high-powered Suns, at least here in Game 1. 

In the regular season finale, when the Clippers needed a win to clinch the 5-seed, they could only beat Phoenix by five. And that was with the Suns sitting seven players, four of them being Durant, Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. 

The Clippers have underachieved all year and I don’t see that changing now. 10*

The Lakers earned the 7-seed by beating Minnesota in the Play-in Round back on Tuesday. But I felt LeBron and company were a little lucky to escape with a victory in that one. Not only did they need overtime to get the ‘W’ but they trailed by as many as 15 points in that game. The T’wolves scored just 16 points from the start of the fourth quarter through OT. 

Memphis, at home, is not going to wither like that. The Grizzlies finished the regular season with the best point differential in the Western Conference and are a much better team at home - where they’ve gone 35-6 SU on the year. They have the best point differential at home in the league, outscoring visiting teams by 10.6 per game. 

The Grizz also have the league’s second best defensive rating. 

LeBron is a somewhat shocking 3-14 SU on the road in Game 1’s in his career. 

Jaren Jackson Jr will need to stay out of foul trouble and Ja Morant will need to hit his threes, but I believe the Lakers are overvalued coming into this best of seven series. Lay the points. 10* 

Cleveland is roughly a 2/1 favorite to advance to the second round, but I think the Cavaliers may have more trouble with the Knicks than anticipated. 

The Cavs’ 51-31 SU record was the franchise’s best in a non-LeBron James season in 30 years. But they really benefited from a 7-0 record in overtime games and their net efficiency is a little misleading due to the fact they typically blew out the bad teams. Against opponents with a .500 or better record, the Cavs have been a losing straight up proposition this season.

The Knicks also had a breakout campaign in 2022-23, which includes a 3-1 SU/ATS record vs. Cleveland. 

Julius Randle is a question mark for Game 1 but so is Cleveland’s Isaac Okoro. Monitor their statuses, but regardless I’m taking NY plus the points for Game 1. 

While starters are called upon more come playoff time, it should be pointed out the Knicks’ bench really dominated their Cavaliers’ counterparts in the four regular season meetings. The Knicks also enjoyed a big edge in offensive rebounding in those games. 10*

The Heat didn’t have a great regular season by any means, but I trust them far more than the defensively inept Hawks this time of year. Miami closed on a 4-1 SU/ATS run to earn home court advantage for this play-in matchup, which will determine the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. 

I have to acknowledge the fact the Heat were not a good team to bet on in the regular season, especially when favored. But neither was Atlanta, who comes in at 35-45 ATS overall and 17-24 ATS on the road. 

The Hawks allow 118.1 points per game, tied for fifth most in the league. Only Detroit, Indiana, Houston and San Antonio allowed more. This is going to be a problem tonight. 

In three games vs the Heat this year, Atlanta allowed 130, 117 and 113 points. They’ve lost 8 of 9 here in Miami and are only 3-6 ATAS in those games.

Expect Jimmy Butler to be the “X-factor” here. He averaged 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists in March, plus he always seems to step his game up in the playoffs. As a team, the Heat saw their offensive efficiency jump tremendously down the stretch and they’ve averaged 121.4 points/game since April 1. Lay it here. 10* 

This is one of the more meaningful games on the NBA slate Sunday. We know both New Orleans and Minnesota will be in the postseason, but it’s just a matter of seeding at this point. New Orleans can finish anywhere between 5th and 9th, which is a huge range of outcomes, while Minnesota will be either 8th or 9th.

Finishing 8th instead of 9th has its advantages as that would be the T’wolves would need to win just once, rather than twice, in the play-in tournament. 

New Orleans will also be motivated, especially by the prospect of avoiding the play-in altogether. But the Pelicans are just 15-25 SU on the road and I just don’t trust them as a small underdog in this spot. Earlier this season, these teams split a pair of games in New Orleans. Minnesota won the more recent game 111-102 after losing the first meeting by just a single point.

Yes, the Timberwolves played yesterday. But no starter exceeded 30 minutes and they put up a season-high 151 points on lowly San Antonio. 

New Orleans has also been pretty bad against teams with winning records. They are just 15-28 SU and 15-27-1 ATS.  Expect Minnesota, at home, to step up in the biggest game of the year.  10*

I cashed with the Clippers earlier in the week as they beat the Lakers 125-118, a game which the Clips actually closed as a 1-point underdog (after opening -3.5) due to LeBron James and Anthony Davis both deciding to suit up for the other side. 

The Clippers still need wins, however. We now know that they’ll be in the playoffs, but it remains unclear if they’ll be a top six seed or forced to be in the play-in tournament. By winning these last two games (they close Sunday @ Phoenix), they’d guarantee themselves a top six spot (can finish as high as fifth). 

Clearly, the Clippers should have no problem winning at home Saturday against an unmotivated Portland team that has lost 14 of its last 16 games. The Blazers have been surprisingly competitive on their current road trip, but four of their last seven losses overall have been by 24 or more points.

The Clips won 117-102 at Portland last month when the Blazers were far healthier. As of press time, the injury list for Portland contains 14 names, Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons among them. 

John Butler, Jeenathan Williams, Drew Eubanks, Skylar Mays and Trendon Watford was Portland’s starting five on Thursday. "These guys don't even know each other, to be honest with you," said coach Chauncey Billups. Sounds bad. 10* 

Milwaukee has already clinched the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference, so their work is done for the regular season. Memphis still needs one more win to clinch the 2-seed in the Western Conference, so I’ll bet accordingly here as the Bucks figure to rest most, if not all, of their key players.

Despite resting some key players, including Ja Morant, the Grizzlies took New Orleans to overtime the other night, eventually losing 138-131. Jaren Jackson had 40 points. Morant, Luke Kennard and Xavier Tillman are NOT on the injury list for tonight, so expect the Grizz to be at closer to full strength.

Back in December, Memphis destroyed Milwaukee 142-101. 

When they are an underdog, the Bucks are 4-11 SU, 4-10-1 ATS this season. They’ve lost those games by an average of more than 10 points.

This boils down to simple motivation. Memphis wants to win. Milwaukee doesn’t care. Yes, the line is inflated, but that shouldn’t matter with the lineup the Bucks are likely to trot out tonight. 8*

Portland comes in at 33-46 on the year while San Antonio (20-59) is already guaranteed a bottom three record in the league. So the teams are just playing for pride in what is seemingly an “unattractive” matchup on Thursday’s NBA slate. Note this game is not being played in San Antonio, but rather in Austin at the Moody Center, which is the home of the Texas Longhorns.

However, despite the lack of stakes and true home court advantage, the Spurs are the play here. Portland comes into this game with one of the more absurd injury reports you’ll ever see. Damian Lillard has already been shut down for the season. Three other starters (Grant, Nurkic, Simons) all missed Tuesday’s loss to the Grizzlies. Shaedon Sharpe, who has scored 20 or more points in seven of the last eight games, is listed as questionable for tonight.

San Antonio also has a lengthy injury list. But I still see them winning this game with room to spare. Going back to March 10th, they actually have double the number of wins (4) compared to the Blazers (2). 

The Spurs just played three of the top four teams in the West, all on the road, so those results really have no bearing on my read here. (It should be noted they did win at Sacramento as 16-point underdogs though). 

This will be just the third time all year that the Spurs come in as the favorite. They are 2-0 SU/ATS the previous two instances, winning those games by an average of 15 points/game. 10* 

This would appear to be a tremendous spot to hammer the Clippers, who have been off for three days while the Lakers are coming off an overtime win last night. While not a true road game for the Lakers, they did just play four road games in the last six days and may have little in the tank here.

With a 1:43 left to go in regulation last night, the Lakers appeared poised to be well on their way to a fourth straight win. They were up 10, but shockingly fell apart down the stretch against a Jazz team that was without three starters. Eventually, the Lakers got it done, winning 135-133 thanks to LeBron James. But those extra five minutes of action were totally needless and could end up costing them big time tonight.

Furthermore, you’ve got to consider that the Clippers are 10-0 SU and 9-1 against the spread in the previous 10 meetings with the Lakers.

Off the three-day break, the Clippers should come out angry as they’ve lost two straight games. They are now tied with the Lakers for the coveted sixth seed in the Western Conference. Obviously, both teams want to finish in the top six so that they don’t have to do the play-in tournament. 

The Clippers are 4-1 SU/ATS playing with three or more days rest this season. I can’t believe this spread is so low, considering how advantageous the situation seems to be for the “home team.” Lay it. 10* 

UConn is a heavy favorite to cut down the nets Monday. They may very well end up winning, but this is too many points to lay to a very good San Diego State. It’s a bigger number than the UConn-Miami game and I have San Diego State rated higher than Miami.

NCAA Title Game favorites of eight points or higher are just 2-5 ATS since 1970. We’re not quite there yet, but it’s something that I wanted to note. 

Now I’m fully aware that UConn has won its five previous Tournament games by an average 20.6 points/game while beating the spread by more than 15 points per game. But we also need to salute what San Diego State has done. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in the Tournament and have won nine games in a row overall. 

Both teams play outstanding defense and neither plays particularly fast. While the respective Final Four opponents looked to speed them up, no one is looking to play fast here. UConn is 214th in adjusted tempo while San Diego State is 270th. 

Don’t consider this an endorsement of the Under, but I certainly don’t expect this to be a high-scoring game. Points will be at a premium, thus taking the underdog is the way to go here. San Diego State has only ONE double digit loss all year and it was to Arizona back in November. 10* 

On a four-game win streak, Phoenix seems to have solidified itself as a top four team in the Western Conference. They are fully healthy now with Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton back in the lineup. Sunday they head to Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team in desperate need of a win.

OKC is still holding onto that last spot for the play-in tournament, but it’s been a poor stretch with the team just 2-4 SU/0-5-1 ATS over its last six games. Even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returning Friday, they suffered a head-scratching 121-117 defeat at Indiana as 5.5-point favorites.

Going just 1-2 SU against the three worst teams in the Eastern Conference (Charlotte, Detroit, Indiana) isn’t a great sign, but I like the Thunder to bounce back here. They’ve got more to play for and are now back in their more comfortable role of underdog (31-19 ATS when taking points this season). 

Phoenix is just 16-23 SU on the road. They lost their only previous visit of the season to OKC, just last month, although it should be pointed out they were playing shorthanded at the time. 

Keep in mind that the Thunder didn’t have SGA in the two games prior to losing to Indiana. Take the points here. 10*

Bet against this Miami team at your own peril. The Hurricanes are 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season, winning five of those games outright. They come into the Final Four fresh off upsets of Indiana, Houston and Texas. 

It’s not just this season either. Under Larranaga, Miami is 33-12 ATS as a dog the last three seasons and 20-5 ATS since the start of last season

UConn seems to be the popular choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but can they sustain their recent level of play? Probably not! The Huskies have made it look easy so far, winning their first four tournament games by a combined 90 points.

But Miami has put up 85, 89 and 88 points the last three games, two of those against top 10 defenses in the country. They are doing so without a high volume of threes, which makes the scoring even more impressive. 

With its incredible stable of guards, Miami can beat anyone on any given night. I’ll gladly take the points with the best underdog team in the country the L3 seasons. They’ve faced the tougher competition in this Tournament and since January 11th, they’ve lost only ONE game by more than three points. That was in the ACC Tournament against Duke, a game where they lost their big man Norchad Omier in a matter of seconds. Take the points. 10* 

This is a likely first round playoff series as the 4th place Cavs (48-29) take on the 5th place Knicks (44-33). New York has won two of the three prior meetings, but all of those were at least two months ago. 

Cleveland has been an excellent home team all season (30-8 SU) not to mention they own the league’s second best overall point differential this season (trailing only Boston). They are #1 in defensive efficiency as well. It would be hard to argue the Cavs aren’t the favorite to win a first round series, against the Knicks or anyone outside the current top three in the East. 

The Knicks are just 5-6 SU/ATS over their previous 11 games, though they have won the last two, beating Houston and Miami. But both of those victories came at home. They’ve lost two in a row on the road, falling at Miami and Orlando.

The Cavs have already clinched a playoff berth and would lock up a top four seed with a win tonight. The Knicks would clinch a playoff spot with a win here, but unfortunately for them, they’ll be without Julius Randle. That is a significant loss as Randle is averaging 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game

Cleveland may be without some key pieces as well (Allen, Okoro), but being at home and wanting to wash away the bad taste of Wednesday’s loss in Atlanta should have them properly motivated in this one. The Cavs are 10-4-1 ATS L15 off a SU loss. 10* 

I like UAB to win the NIT. The Blazers’ only loss in their last 13 games came to FAU in the C-USA Tourney Final and they (UAB) were actually favored over a team that’s now in the Final 4 of the “Big Dance.” 

With North Texas also involved here, it’s an all Conference USA Final. In addition to FAU’s run, Charlotte has already won the CBI, so what an impressive run by this league in March. This is the fourth meeting between North Texas & UAB this season. North Texas won both in the regular season, but UAB got revenge in the conference tournament with a 76-69 win as 1-point favorites. 

North Texas needed a bit of a miracle to get by Wisconsin in its last game. The Badgers didn’t score over the game’s final nine minutes. Tip your cap to the Mean Green defense, but this is a team that needed OT to get by Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals as well. 

I’m just not sure North Texas can generate enough offense here. They’ve barely won the last two games, despite giving up an average of 54.5 points/game in regulation. Wisconsin did score 41 against them in the first half Tuesday. UAB averages 81.3 points/game, which is top 10 in the country.

Plus the potential absence of big man Abou Ousmane (team leader in rebounds and blocks) looms large for North Texas. Lay the points. 10*

Barring an unforeseen setback, Kevin Durant is set to make his return to the Suns lineup on Wednesday. The team has gone 4-6 SU with Durant out of the lineup, but things have been trending up with two straight wins. I was on the Suns (-6.5) Monday as they beat the Jazz 117-103 on the road. Deandre Ayton returned to the lineup for that game and scored 14 points. So this team is finally at full strength.

Phoenix is 4th in the West right now with a 40-35 record. Lurking not far behind in 6th is Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 39-37 following four straight wins, all of those coming by six points or less. 

Karl-Anthony Towns sat out the T’wolves’ 119-115 win at Sacramento Monday due to injury management. But even with his impending return for this game, I don’t like the spot for the visitors. It will be their third road game in four nights and some of these recent victories, such as the one at Golden State Sunday were a little fortunate. 

Minnesota still has a negative scoring differential this year. That’s a sign that they are unlikely to hold onto a top six spot. Four teams below them in the standings have better YTD point differentials. 

Having Durant, Ayton, Devin Booker and Chris Paul all in the starting lineup makes Phoenix one of the top teams in the league. Though this number has already been steamed up, I like the Suns minus the points. They’ve averaged 120 points over the last five games and should have their way with a Minnesota defense that is allowing 121.7 points over its last six games. 10*