The set-up: EMU is 7-1 and Detroit is just 1-6. Detroit's had a difficult early schedule, while the Eagles have had an easy go of it to open the campaign. Note that three of EMU's four wins vs. D1 teams have come by six points or less. Also note that the Eagles have allowed at least 77 points in each of their last two games. 

The pick: Detroit's first two games of the year came on the road vs. good ACC opponents. The Titans have one of the most dynamic players in the country in Antonie Davis though and I expect this team to finally show up here today. According to the Kenpom.com rankings, EMU has been the "luckiest" team so far this season and I believe that luck finally runs out here vs. this battle tested and extremely desperate home side. Grab the points.

10* MAULING on Detroit.

The set-up: The Central Arkansas Bears won't be going down without a fight here. The Bears come in off back-to-back OT losses, most recently falling 78-72 to Prairie View A&M. Hayden Koval was a bright spot in a losing cause with 20 points and 11 boards, along with three blocked shots. 

The pick: But the Bears are still only 1-6, while the mighty Wichita State Shockers are 6-1. Simply put I believe that the home side goes up big early and then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. The Shockers are off their first loss of the year in a 75-63 setback to WVU in the championship game of the Cancun Challenge. I like the battle tested Bears to keep pace late. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Central Arkansas. 

The set-up: The 1-7 Matadors come in off their first win of the season and I think that CSUN keeps the foot on the gas here as it travels to the Pacific Northwest. It was a quality win as well, erasing a ten-point second-half deficit to beat Fresno STate 73-72. Terrell Gomez led the way with 21 points after halftime. Portland won this game 80-77 at the Matadome last year, so the revenge factor also comes into play here (Gomez led all scorers in that one with 25 points.) 

The pick: I think the 6-1 home side comes in complacent. Most recently the Pilots held on for a 65-56 win over Incarnate Word. Portland has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six after having won four or five of its last six games. I think this one comes right down to the wire and as such, I'm grabbing the handful of points.

9* MID-MAJOR MAULING on CS Northridge.

The set-up: The Lakers come in off a hard-fought 105-96 win at Denver last night and I believe they'll be hard pressed to keep pace with the hungry and revenge minded Jazz, who return home off a poor road trip which saw them get humbled in LA vs. the Lakers. Utah's always been much better at home and with a night off to prepare for this one, I do indeed believe that from a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up fantastically for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well though that despite last night's win, the Lakers are still only 4-5 ATS on the road this year. Utah is 0-2 ATS to open December, but note that it's 11-3 ATS in its last 14 after two more straight road losses. The numbers/trends and the overall situation points to a home side blowout here in my opinion.

10* REVENGE ELITE OF ELITE on the Utah Jazz.

The set-up: Akron had won seven straight in this series, before Marshall took the last two. The Zips are 5-2 and the Herd are 2-4. Akron is 5-0 at home and it's two road losses have come against Louisville and WVU. Akron is ranked 168th in the country in offensive efficiency, shooting 32.7 percent. Overall the Zips concede just 62.5 PPG. 

The pick: The Herd are hungry for a big win here obviously. So far they're averaging 70.8 PPG, while allowing 73.7. Taevion Kinsey is averaging 14.8 PPG. On paper, Akron would appear to have the advantage. But I think both sides early numbers are skewed somewhat due to the level of competition. I absolutely believe though that Marshall is the "hungrier" team here. I'll point out additionally that the Herd are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning SU record, while the Zips are 0-4 ATS in their last four as a radof favorite. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but let's grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Marshall.

The set-up: I think the division leading Mavs get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. This is a revenge game for the home side after the Mavs took the first meeting of the year by a score of 123-116. But after ending the Lakers ten game win streak in LA with a 114-100 road win last time out, I do indeed feel this sets up as a "trap" for Dallas. 

The pick: The Pelicans have been dealing with injury issues since Day 1 this year, which has resulted in the sub-par record. But after five-straight losses, I think their "hunger" is the difference here. Keep your eyes on New Orleans' Brandon Ingram, who leads the team with 25.5 PPG. Additionally note that Dallas is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 off a win by ten points or more as an underdog, while New Orleans is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. While I wouldn't be shocked by the outright, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New Orleans Pelicans.

The set-up: Of course I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Simply put I think the 4-2 Wildcats, who return home for this contest, are going to get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent to their highly anticipated Big 12/Big East battle on Saturday night

The pick: K-State also looks vulnerable here after back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Bradley. Note that A&M is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games as a 22 point underdog or higher. Grab the points.

10* BEAT-DOWN on Florida A&M.

The set-up: The Wizards are 1-2 on their current four game trip and they come in off a loss to the defensive minded Lakers. The Wizards do allow 121 PPG, but the Clippers more methodical offensive pace works in our favor here considering the large spread the visitors have been afforded in this situation. Despite the defensive ineptitude, Washington remains the highest scoring team in the league as well.  

The pick: LA has plenty of talent and it will be contending for the Western Conference title at the end of the year, but the Clippers return home off a 107-97 loss to the Spurs and I think they'll come out flat here vs. their lowly non-conference opponent. Note as well that Washington is 7-3 ATS as a road dog already this year, while LA is just 7-8 ATS as a favorite. Grab the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Washington Wizards.

The set-up: Both teams come in off victories. SIU beat UNC Central, while SLU got the better of Boston College. SIU has to be feeling confident here though as it's won three of the last four in this series, including last year's contest 61-56. Overall the Salukis average 63.4 PPG and allow 38.9 percent shooting from the field. 

The pick: Saint Louis averages 72.7 PPG and it's allowing 37.8 percent shooting from the field. Southern Illinois is also 5-1 ATS in its last six after a win by 15 points or more, while Saint Louis is 0-6 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Grab the points and expect a spirited battle until the end. 

10* HIGH-ROLLER on Southern Illinois. 

The set-up: I like the 2-5 Pirates to pull off the minor upset here, vs. 3-4 James Madison. JMU fell to Coppin State on Wednesday, while ECU was 1-2 in the Bahamas, but now coming into this contest well rested after an extended break due to the travel associated with the Tournament. The Pirates' rebounding is top 100 in the nation and it's kept them in games early. 

The pick: JMU fell 94-78 to Coppin State last time out. The Dukes allow 73 PPG, so the Pirates' offense has a big opportunity here tonight as well. ECU matches up well vs. the Dukes and note that it's 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with five of six days rest. Conversely note that this is a spot in which JMU has been a disaster for bettors, going just 7-14 ATS as a favorite. While the outright is possible, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on East Carolina. 

The set-up: Clearly "on paper" the Clippers are the better team. LA has won seven straight, most recently holding on for a 121-119 victory at Memphis. Winning as a favorite on the road is never easy though and I think the now complacent Clippers finally have a letdown here. The Spurs lost eight in a row before a victory, but they've since dropped two more straight on the bounce. 

The pick: I think LA is as good as it appears to be at the moment, but I definitely do not believe that the Spurs are as horrible as their recent losing streak would indicate. As a situational handicapper (primarily), these are the types of games which I'm constantly on the look out for. San Antonio has a very real shot at winning this one outright in my opinion (note tht LA is a poor 2-5 ATS on the road this season and 0-2 ATS off a road victory, while San Antonio is still 12-6 ATS in its last 18 as a home dog,) but in the end I'm going to grab all the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the San Antonio Spurs.

The set-up: USC is 5-1 and Fairfield is 1-4. USC though comes in off its first loss of the year and I think it'll still be mentally caught up on that setback. SDSU ended the Trojans five-game win skein. Overall USC averages 77.5 PPG and it allows 66.5. The Stags are averaging 64 PPG and allowing 70.2. To their credit, the Stags have played some stiff competition, most recently calling to SMU 74-55. 

The pick: Note though that the Stags have been money in the bank for bettors in this spot though already this year, going 4-1 ATS as an underdog (note that they're also 7-3 ATS in their last ten tournament contests.) USC on the other hand is just 17-21 ATS in its last 38 after playing a home game and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. schools with losing records. I'm grabbing the points.

10* SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on Fairfield.

The set-up: The Raptors are dominating with Paskall Siakim and Fred VanFleet running the show. Serge Ibaka and Kyle Lowry are still sidelined with minor injuries, but Toronto just keeps on finding ways to win. Most recently the Raptors dominated their second half game at home vs. the 76ers and pulled away for the 101-96 victory. The Knicks won't be going down with a fight here though as they suffered another slim loss to the Nets last time out, falling 103-101. New York has lost three in a row and four of five. With upcoming games vs. Philly, Boston, Milwaukee and Denver, the Knicks' road ahead isn't getting any easier. 

The pick: Toronto has a game in Orlando on Friday, followed by home contests vs. Utah, Miami and Houston. After its emotional victory over Philly, would anyone fault the home side for looking past their lowly opponent in some small way today? The trends support our theory as well, as note that the Knicks are a sharp 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road dog, while Toronto is a poor 7-11 ATS in its last 18 off a home win vs. a division rival. No outright upset, but decided in the final moments. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks.

The set-up: Niagara won't be lacking for motivation here as it searches for its first win of the season. Most recently NU fell 73-62 to Bryan on November 18th. The Purple Eagles though play six of their next seven on the road, so there's no question that they'll be out to get off on the "right foot" here. They're also desperate to get off the schneid. They came close vs. Stephen F. Austin, shooting 55 percent from the floor for the first time since 2018, while James Towns had 21 points in a losing cause to Bryant most recently. And with tough games vs. Syracuse, Rutgers, Buffalo and St. Bonaventure, the Purple Eagles will be out to score the upset vs. this "lesser" competition. 

The pick: The Fort Wayne Mastadons are 3-5 this year, including 3-0 at home. Their victories come over suspect competition though and note that they're just 1-6 ATS in their last seven after a blowout win by 20 points or more. Conversely note that Niagara is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including 2-0 this year.) In a contest which I see being decided in the final moments, I'll gladly grab all these points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Niagara.

The set-up: Western Illinois scored its first win of the season in a 113-62 destruction of lowly Central Christian Bible College and while today's opponent is obviously significantly better, I still think the Leathernecks can carry that momentum over here and keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Dre' Shawn Allen would go on to lead all scorers with a career-high 17 points in the victory. 

The pick: Ball State is coming off a 100-69 victory over Howard. Note that the Leathernecks won't be intimidated here though, as they have already played another MAC team this year, falling 86-81 to Northern Illinois in a tight affair just last week. Expect a similar final combined score here as well once it's all said and done. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Western Illinois.

The set-up: SMU is 4-0 after narrowly getting by Evansville last time out. UNLV is 2-4 after falling to Texas State in its last game. The Mustangs had to hold on for dear life vs. the Purple Aces, prevailing 59-57, but I think they'll have their hands full here today from this hungry UNLV side. Tyson Jolly leads SMU with 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, but note that the Mustangs commit 15 turnovers a night. 

The pick: Amauri Hardy led the Rebels with 18 points in a losing cause last time out. These team's offensive and defensive numbers are pretty close, but I think UNLV comes in as the "hungrier" team here. SMU is also a terrible 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road favorite (and 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite overall), while UNLV is 4-1 ATS in its last five off an upset loss as a home favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on the home side.

10* PLAY-BOOK on UNLV.

The set-up: LIU is 1-3 and it starts off the Western portion of its schedule with this game. SDSU is 4-0 and I think it gets caught sleeping on its opponent here. LIU posted its first win of the season on the road Monday , beating Delaware State 92-84. The Sharks had five players score in double digits in the win. I expect the team to carry that confidence and momentum over here. 

The pick: The Aztecs beat in-State rival San Diego most recently. NOte that only two players average in double-digit points for the Aztecs though. SDSU has a stout defense, but I think it'll be tested here by the Sharks' pace. No outright, but this spread is much too large considering the situation. Grab the points.

10* MAULING on Long Island.

The set-up: I think this one sets up great for a competitive matchup. The 76ers have the Heat coming to town tomorrow night, followed by a game vs. the Raptors. If ever this team was going to "look past" an opponent, surely it's the non-conference Spurs who come to town having lost seven in a row. San Antonio will be risking life and limb here to try and reverse its fortunes and while the outright win isn't out of the question in my opinion, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in the end. 

The pick: Note that the 76ers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. teams with a losing SU record and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU victory, while the Spurs are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 off an upset loss as a road favorite. Grab the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the San Antonio Spurs.

The set-up: After a big home win over the Pelicans, I think they have a predictable letdown here vs. a Suns team which comes in focussed on the task at hand after a recent scuffling stretch. Note that despite their recent "up tick" in play the Pelicans are still allowing a horrible 118.9 PPG this year. New Orleans is getting promising play from Brandon Ingram of late, but New Orleans' poor defensive play is going to come back to haunt it again here in my opinion. 

The pick: Phoenix has lost three of its last five. It's once brilliant start is going to be firmly in the rear view mirror without a victory here today. Note though that the Pelicans are a poor 3-7 ATS in their last ten vs. clubs with winning SU records, while the Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. clubs with losing road records. Enough is enough. Look for Devin Booker and company to lay the hammer down from start to finish and lay the points. 

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Phoenix Suns.

The set-up: Central Michigan is 4-0, but it faces a stiff test here in this difficult road venue vs. a 1-3 Gophers team which is looking to get its four game home stand started off on the "right foot." Minnesota has faced tough power conference opponents, while the Chips' competition has been suspect. Note as well that despite the sub-par win/loss record, the Gophers already rank high in several team categories, including 37th in 3-pointers made.

The pick: As note above, two of CMU's victories have in fact come over non-Division 1 opposiion. This is also the Chips very first true road game of the year, with all four victories coming on their home floor. Minnesota has a 22-2 lifetime record vs. the MAC and I expect that number to go up by 1 after tonight. And in blowout fashion. The stage is set for a beatdown, so lay the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on Minnesota. 

The set-up: San Antonio is "desperate" here as it looks to break a six-game slide. However, the Wizards are equally as "hungry" for a victory and they could clearly care less about any of the Spurs' issues. Note. This is NOT the same Spurs of team of year's past. DeMar DeRozan is carrying the load well, but LaMarcus Aldridge isn't getting any younger and I think the the final game of this long and brutal road-trip will see the veteran struggle here. 

The pick: Both teams comes in off losses and each sport similar offensive and defensive numbers. But note that the Spurs are a terrible 17-22 ATS in their last 39 as a road favorite and only 1-8 ATS this season vs. teams which average 106 plus points or more per game. The Wizards and Bradely Beal on th eother hand are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 as a home dog of six points or less. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab the points as insurance.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Washington Wizards.

The set-up: Princeton is 0-3 and Indiana is 0-4. I think the hungry underdog keeps this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Tigers were 16-12 last year and they return four of their five starters. Note that outside of a blowout loss to Duquesne, Princeton has been solid overall this year and competitive in all of its losses. 

The pick: Indiana's four wins have come over Western Illinois, Portland State, North Alabama, and Troy. Clearly not murderers row. Last year Indiana was only 19-16 and now it faces its stiffest test so far. Note that the Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten when playing with five or six days rest, while the Hoosiers are only 1-3 ATS in their last four after two straight covers as a double digit favorite. I'm grabbing the points on the desperate Tigers.

10* DESTRUCTION on Princeton.

The set-up: The Suns are starting to stumble and they come in off a poor 99-85 loss to the Celtics, who were playing the second game of a back-to-back, after they lost in Sacramento the night before. The Kings though are trending in the opposite direction in a big way and I believe the books are slow in recognizing the sudden drop off for Phoenix, and the "up-tick" in overall play from Sacramento. Combined with the fact that the Suns are playing the second game of a back to back here, there's no question in my mind that this one sets up fantastically for the Kings. 

The pick: And finally note that Sacramento is 36-20 ATS in its last 56 when trying to revenge a season season loss vs. an opponent, including having already gone 2-0 ATS this year. I'm expecting a blowout from start to finish.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Sacramento Kings.

The set-up: Fairfield is 1-3, but I think it'll sneak in under the radar this evening and post a solid cover. Note that while the Stags have the sub-par record, they've been competitive in every game, as their first two losses were by four points (vs. Bucknell) and two (UMass), then after beating Holy Cross, they fell to Loyola in OT 84-75. Note that Fairfield has veteran experience as well, as its top three scorers are all upperclassmen.

The pick: The Terps have won all three of their opening games by an average of 24 points. Mark Turgeon has a group of players which look poised for a deep run. Anthony Cowan Jr. leads the nightly charge and four others average more than 10 PPG. I never said it would be a cake walk, I simply feel this spread is much too high. Note as well that Fairfield is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contestw, while Maryland is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three straight SU home victories. I think the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Fairfield.

The set-up: UTSA comes in under the radar and desperate for a spark after starting 0-4. The Aggies are on the other end of the spectrum at 4-0. Clearly on paper this is a massive mismatch, but I think from a situational stand point this one sets up great for the hungry visiting side. 

The pick: And that's because UTSA has a monumental matchup with SEC heavyweight LSU up next! UTSA has an opportunity to comfortably sneak in through the back door here as I don't expect the home side to run up the score here as it gets caught looking ahead. Note as well that UTSA is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with seven days rest, while Utah State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 15.5 to 18 points range. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on UTSA.

The set-up: The Spurs are on a five-game losing skid, but the Mavericks just broke a two-game losing streak with a win over the Raptors. Dallas could care less about the Spurs' issues and I think it'll lay the hammer down and try to kick this division opponent while its down. The Spurs let a 15 point lead slip away in their most recent 121-116 setback to the Blazers. Portland was desperate for a spark as well in that one. Spurs' big man LaMarcus Aldridge was exceptional with 30 points and 13 boards, but I have a hard time seeing the veteran mustering up the same energy here in the final game of this gruelling road trip. 

The pick: The Spurs offense has been decent, but their defense has been atrocious, ranking in the bottom quarter of the league statistically. Note as well that San Antonio is just 15-17 ATS in its last 32 as a road dog of six points or less (including 0-2 ATS this year), while Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. clubs that allow 106 plus points per contest. No mercy here, look for the Spurs to pack up their tents early and lay the points with confidence.

10* DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR on the Dallas Mavericks. 

The set-up: Boston is 10-1 and Sacaramento is 4-7. Boston got it's road trip started off with a 105-100 win in Golden State, but with a game tomorrow night against the re-surgent Suns, followed by heavyweights LA Clippers and to finish their trip at Denver, I think Boston finally gets caught "looking ahead" in this classic "trap" game. Also note that Boston could rest players in anticipation of the upcoming grueling schedule.

The pick: The Kings on the other hand will be laying everything on the line here. Sacramento has won five of its last seven and it enters off a tough 99-97 loss on the road to the Lakers. Note as well that Boston is only 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Sacramento is interestingly 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine in this series in front of the home town crowd. Look for the home side to throw everything it has into this game, but make sure to grab as many points as you can as well.

10* COAST-TO-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Sacramento Kings.

The set-up: The Mavericks are going to be in a foul mood here as they've lost three of their last four, including a second straight to the Knicks in the last ten days. A date vs. the defending champs, who have been getting unreal play from Paskal Siakim and Fred VanVleet and while they've won three straight in this series, I believe the defending champs finally get caught flat footed here vs. this determined home side. Toronto beat the Lakers, then lost 98-88 to the Clippers, before then beating the Pacers 114-106 in Portland. 

The pick: I'll point out though that Toronto is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight when playing on two days rest, while Dallas is 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records and 4-1 ATS in its last five after a SU loss. This is Toronto's fifth road game in the last nine days and I look for it come in with "heavy legs" for this one. Lay the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Mavericks. 

The set-up: Clearly on paper CS Northridge is over-matched here. But I think the 0-3 Matadors can comfortably sneak in through the back door here vs. the 3-0 Auburn Tigers. CSUN's defense has been terrible, but it's offense has been decent. Last time out it lost 94-82 to Pepperdine. Auburn is the 22nd ranked team in the country, but it's yet to face anyone from a major conference yet. 

The pick: Yes the Matadors have lost both road games this year, but note that they're 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 away from friendly confines. Auburn may be 3-0, but it had to hold on for dear life in its 70-69 win over South Alabama last time out. Note as well that CSUN is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a home loss by ten or more points, while Auburn is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records. I like the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on CS Northridge.

The set-up: LBSU comes in battle tested already. This is its third straight road game to open the year and fourth game in nine days. If this were the end of the season then I'd be worried about fatigue, but I believe at the start of the year all of this recent action can only help the 49ers' chemistry in this one vs. No. 18 Saint Mary's. LBSU was destroyed 86-58 at Stanford, but I think it'll play with a lot more confidence here. 

The pick: The Gaels beat Wisconsin to open the year, but then suffered a terrible loss to Winthrop with a buzzer-beater. I think the Gaels come in shell shocked from that loss and it's the foot in the door that the 49ers can use to keep this one competitive late. Note as well that the Gaels are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven at home and only 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss, while LBSU is 8-1 ATS in its last nine on the road. I'm grabbing the all these points.

10* SHOCKER BLOWOUT on LBSU. 

The set-up: The Knicks beat the Mavericks 106-102 in Dallas last week and I think they have a legitimate shot at doing it again tonight. Dallas plays the final game of a three-game trip and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent here, despite having just lost to it. Kristaps Porzingis returns to The Big Apple, which once again will be added incentive for the home side. In that victory the Knicks had five players score in double figures and they shot 50 percent from range. 

The pick: Both teams come in off losses, with New York losing at Chicago, and Dallas falling at Boston. Note though that the Mavericks are already only 1-4 ATS this season in non-conference games and a poor 10-17 ATS in their last 27 in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. I don't think the "revenge" angle works here at all. New York is the "hungrier" team and I expect it to put up a fight at home. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks.

The set-up: Wyoming beat lowly Idaho State in its opener, before then falling 66-32 at South Carolina. CSU Fullerton comes in off back-to-back losses, to open the year, albeit over much stiffer competition in BYU and Stanford. Wyoming was just 8-24 last year and its line-up features seven sophomores and four freshman. Cal State won 16 games last year and it returns three starters from that squad. 

The pick: Cal State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after suffering back-to-back defeats of more than 15 points, while Wyoming is only 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a defeat of 30 or more points in its previous game. I think the Titans' depth and experience delivers them to their first victory of the season.

9* SUPER-SHOCKER on Cal State Fullerton.

The set-up: The Western Illinois Leathernecks are 0-2. This is the final game of their opening home-stand and I think they're going to lay everything on the line here to secure their first victory of the year vs. the Tennessee Martin Skyhawks, who come in off a 92-75 loss to East Tennessee State on Saturday. UT Martin has three double-digit scorers, led by Quinton Dove. 

The pick: But the Leathernecks also have plenty of talent, including Zion Young, who had 24 points in his team's heart-breaking 77-75 loss to Stetson. I think it's interesting to note as well the Western Illinois is the No. 1 free-throw shooting team in the nation at 93.3 percent thus far. I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Western Illinois.

The set-up: Philadelphia fought tooth and nail last night and barely held on for 98-97 win over the Cavaliers at home and now it has to hit the road to face a Magic team desperate for a spark and hungry to take advantage of a team which could be without the services of scorer Ben Simmons in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Regardless of whether or not Simmons plays, I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for Orlando. 

The pick: The Magic were a dark horse for many in the East after last year's great campaign, but at 3-7, clearly Orlando has some work to do. While Orlando has clearly been a disappointment, so to has Philadelphia's performance to this point. The East is wide open and I'm not going to over-react at this point to any of the team's play at this moment. I will however point out that Philly is a poor 2-7 ATS in its last nine after winning a close game by three or less points and playing the second game of a back-to-back, while the Magic are 52-40 ATS in their last 92 after a loss (including 3-2 ATS this season.) I'm grabbing the points, but expecting an outright.

10* DEMOLITION on the Orlando Magic. 

The set-up: LBSU almost upset UCLA in its opener and then it rolled to a double digit win over San Diego in its second game. Overall the 49ers have not given up more than 69 points this year and they've averaged 74 thus far. LBSU plays with revenge here as well after falling 93-86 in this game last season. 

The pick: Stanford's rosey 2-0 start has to be taken with a grain of salt as well, as its victories have come over Montanta and Cal State Fullerton. There's no doubt that the Cardinal are tough at home and I'm not suggesting at all that you should expect an outright upset. That said, note that LBSU is 8-0 ATS in its last eight on the road. The 49ers play with revenge and I expect this "under the radar" team to give Stanford everything it can handle. Grab the points.

9* COACH'S CORNER on LBSU.

The set-up: Detroit has lost two in a row. The Pistons finally got Blake Griffin back, but they still lost 120-114 to the visiting Wolves last night. Clearly the Pistons are going to get better now that Griffin is back in the line-up, but it's not going to be an instantaneous transformation and playing here on the second game of the back to back isn't going to help either. The Heat enter off a road loss to the Lakers, after laying a beatdown on the Suns in Phoenix. 

The pick: The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league right now, allowing just 105.4 PPG. The Pistons are allowing 113.3 and I expect that number to go up here in this difficult road venue. Additionally note that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four following a SU loss, while the Pistons are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. I'm banking on a double-digit rocking-chair victory. Lay the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Miami Heat. 

The set-up: Troy is 0-1 and it's looking to take out its frustrations here in the second game of a short two-game home stand. The Trojans enter off a 76-75 loss to UAB, a game in which they trailed by 12 points late. KJ Simon set a new career-high, leading all scorers with 21 points on 9-12 shooting. 

The pick: The Chattanooga Mocs are 1-1, losing 79-68 at EKU, before then holding on for a 59-57 win over Tennessee State at home in their second. Transfer Matt Ryan led the way scoring 11 points on 4-14 shooting. Troy is the deeper and more experienced team and I think it lays everything on the line here to secure the victory in front of what should be a record-setting crowd to watch. Additionally note that the Mocs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight after scoring 60 points or less in their previous contest, while the Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, I'm on the home side in this one.

10* DESTRUCTION on Troy.

The set-up: After winning the opener of this tournament, Hawaii was upset at home last night 81-75 by South Dakota. Pacific lost to South Dakota in its opening game of this tournament by a score of 72-62, but it then bounced back in fine fashion with a 76-54 win over FAMU. These teams haven't met since 2013, but I think they're very evenly matched after what I've seen in the early going. 

The pick: Additionally note that Pacific is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 vs. teams with winning records, while Hawaii is only 5-12 ATS in its last 17 non-conference contests. In a game which I see being decided by whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific.

The set-up: The Spurs come in off a poor effort at home to the red hot Celtics and they'll be eager to erase that performance by handling the Grizzlies in front of the home town crowd. The Grizzlies are looking terrible though, getting shut down recently in Orlando in a poor offensive display, before then coming back home and allowing 138 points to the Mavericks in a loss. Overall the Grizzlies average 108.7 PPG and they allow 120.1.

The pick: The Spurs come in off the 135-115 loss to Boston, but they average 112.6 PPG and allow 112.7. San Antonio is also 7-1 ATS in its last eight after a double-digit home loss, while Memphis is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after an ATS loss. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish, so lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Antonio Spurs.

The set-up: Houston comes in off a win vs. the Warriors, but I think its inconsistencies on the road comes back to haunt it again here vs. this hungry home side. Chicago has been "hit or miss" early, but it comes in off a big road win in Atlanta and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here. Besides James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the Rockets get pretty thin after that. 

The pick: Houston's defense is suspect as well after allowing 112 points to an undermanned Warriors squad last time out. Chicago has plenty of young talent and I'm not reading too much into its early poor numbers. Now that the team has had a few games to get acclimated, I think the Bulls' last victory over the Hawks is going to be more indicative of they play moving forward. Additionally note that the Rockets are a poor 11-12 ATS in their last 23 as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Chicago is 16-10 ATS in its last 26 as a home dog in the same points range. In a game which I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Chicago Bulls.

The set-up: Cal Irvine won its first game on the road, but I think it'll have its hands full vs. Pepperdine, which lost by 16 in its opener to Cal. Irvine barely held on for a 76-73 win over San Diego. 

The pick: The Waves were only down two at half to the Golden Bears, but they weren't able to hold it together in the second half. The Waves finished 16-18 last year, so they'll be desperate for a victory here as they try to get the 2019/20 campaign out to a better start. Note though that the Waves were 9-5 at home last year and they've covered in 13 of their last 19 in friendly confines. I'm banking on the hungry Waves getting back on track here.

10* BLOWOUT on Pepperdine.

The set-up: The Knicks are 1-7 and the Mavericks are 5-2. On paper, of course the Mavericks are the "better" team. However, as primarily a "situational" handicapper I think the desperate Knicks, who have lost four in a row, will give the over confident Mavericks everything they can handle tonight. One bright spot for New York in its last loss in Detroit was that it won the rebound battle 49-40. 

The pick: Facing former team-mate Kristaps Porzingis will only add motivation for the visitors as well. Dallas won 107-106 over the Magic on Wednesday, which was the first time all year that Orlando scored over 100 points. Note as well that New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Dallas is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten home games as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including 0-2 ATS this year.) I believe the home side goes up early, takes the foot off the gas and I expect the hungry/desperate visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the New York Knicks.

The set-up: I think the Rams can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Colorado State beat Denver 74-63 in its opener, while Duke got off to a win and cover over Kansas at Madison Square Garden in its opener. Colorado State is an experienced team though and I think it'll be that collective experience which helps it keep this one competitive. Note that the Rams have four returning starters from last years team and each scored in double figures in the opening win. 

The pick: Will the same intensity be there for the Blue Devils as what they put forth in the win over the Jayhawks? Doubtful in my opinion. Note as well that Duke is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while Colorado State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a winning home record. Duke shot just 35.9 percent from the floor in the win over Kansas and I think this line-up of mainly freshman takes a small step back vs. this lowly non-conference opponent. Grab the points.

8* DESTRUCTION on Colorado State.

The set-up: Both teams are 1-0. UNC beat Notre Dame by 11 on Opening Night, managing to cover the spread by a single bucket. Cole Anthony had a massive game for the Tar Heels by dropping 34 points and grabbing 11 boards, but the Seahawks won't be going down without a fight today after they exploded in a 103-83 win over Johnson and Wales. Wilmington is an experienced team and I think that plays favorably for it here. 

The pick: Note as well that UNC is a sub-par 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a home win vs. a conference rival, while Wilmington is 19-11 ATS in its last 30 as an underdog. Clearly I'm not calling for the outright, but I do absolutely believe the stage is set for a comfortable cover. Grab the points.

10* SUPER SHOCKER on NC Wilmington.

The set-up: Miami enters off a loss to a desperate Nuggets team, but I think its depth and experience will help it pull off the minor upset here vs. the surprising Suns. Phoenix has won three straight and it just handed the 76ers their first loss of the year. Can anyone say "letdown" spot? 

The pick: The Suns have been getting massive production from Devin Booker, but behind him Phoenix is actually pretty thin (Aron Baynes and Kelly Oubre Jr?!). Despite falling to Denver, note as well that Miami is still 52-33 ATS in it last 85 on the road and already 2-0 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest, while Phoenix is a poor 14-18 ATS in its last 32 when playing on two days rest. I'm grabbing the points, but obviously expecting an outright upset.

10* COAST-TO-COAST ULTIMATE ATS BLOWOUT is on the Miami Heat.

The set-up: UNC was upset by Auburn in the Sweet 16 last year. The Tar Heels lost their top five scorers, but they have a top 10 recruiting class, led by point guard Cole Anthony. Mike Brey has been the head coach in Notre Dame for 19 years, but the Irish won just 14 games last year, the lowest win total of his tenure. Last year the Irish took a 36-33 halftime lead against UNC and eventually lost 75-69. With five seniors returning, I expect Notre Dame to put up a similarily hard-fought effort here. 

The pick: The Tar Heels lost their top five scorers, but also four of their five starters from a year ago. UNC is still picked to finish second in the ACC, but I think chemistry is going to be an issue early. Look for the Irish to take this one down to the wire and grab up the generous amount of points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on Notre Dame.

The set-up: The Spartans were 32-7 last year and they're ranked No. 1 in the country. Clearly the Wildcats won't be lacking for motivation after finishing 30-7. Michigan State has plenty of talent, desping losing Kenny Goings, Nick Ward and Matt McQuaid.

The pick: Kentucky lost Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson and PJ Washington, but it picked several five-star recruits and it's expected to be even better this year. Note as well that MSU is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a neutral court favorite or pick, while Kentucky is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 neutral court contests. In a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these top teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

9* DESTRUCTION on Kentucky.

The set-up: Denver comes in off a win over Orlando and I think it keeps the momentum rolling here vs. the 5-1 Heat. While Miami has performed well at home, this is a big test with games at Phoenix and the Lakers up next. Miami blew the Rockets out of the water in their 129-100 home victory, but I think it takes a step back here in this difficult non-conference venue. 

The pick: The Nuggets have gone through some early growing pains to open the year, with losses to Dallas and New Orleans. Denver though battled tough against the Magic and there's no reason not to think it won't carry over that hunger here at home vs. this top East Coast team. Note that Miami is only 11-21 ATS in its last 32 after a win by ten points or more, while Denver is 24-16 ATS in its last 40 after playing two straight on the road. After their "ho hum" start and facing this red hot Heat side, I look for Nikola Jokic and company to lay the hammer down from start to finish here. Lay the points.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: These teams are playing at Madison Square Garden in New York City in this one. The last time these teams met was in the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and the Jayhawks won 85-81. Kansas though is on a mission here after failing to win the Big 12 for the first time since 2004, finishing with a 26-10 record last year. Kansas was hurt last season by the loss of Udoka Azubuike, who hurt his wrist early on and would have gone to the NBA, but he's back this season instead to work on his "stock" for the upcoming draft. 

The pick: The Blue Devils went 32-6 last year, but losing Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett isn't going to be the easiest transition in my opinion. Duke is loaded with talent (Tre Jones), but it also has to replace leadership type players like Cam Reddish (he had 13.5 PPG last year.) Additionally note that Duke is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games, while Kansas is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. I think the talent and experience that the Jayhawks bring back turn out to be the difference maker on Opening night. 

10* PLAY-BOOK on Kansas.

The set-up: The Bucks are 4-2 and they have double-digit wins over the Magic and Raptors already. Minnesota is 4-1 and while it won its first game without superstar Karl-Anthony Towns in the line-up in their last game after he was suspended for three games for fighting, I have a hard time seeing the home side duplicating that feat vs. this incredibly deep Bucks side.

The pick: Note as well that Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with a winning SU record, while MIlwaukee is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. the Western Conference. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive rout.

8* play on the Bucks.

The set-up: Memphis won't be rolling over here after losing two straight. Yes Houston has the better line-up, but it's playing the final game of a tough trip and it's off a terrible beatdown loss in Miami just last night. Beyond James Harden and Russell Westbrook, Houston gets thin pretty quickly. 

The pick: Memphis has lost two road games by an average of 24 points, while going 1-2 at home with an average margin of loss being at six. Houston is terrible defensively. It gave up 158 points to the Wizards in its first road game and then allowed 49% shooting to the Nets the following night. Note that Westbrook is OUT for this one as well. And finally note that the Rockets are 0-4 ATS already this year vs. teams with losing records (and 30-40 ATS the last two seasons), while Memphis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Grab the generous points.

10* play on the Grizzlies.

The set-up: Portland returns home after a successful 3-1 season opening road trip. The Blazers only loss came to the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back situation. The Blazers are getting dominant play from Damian Lillard, who is averaging 29.2 PPG, while CJ McCollum is averaging 21. Note that the Blazers are 8-1 SU in their last nine at the Moda Center. The 76ers come to town without their top player in Joel Embiid as well, who is serving a suspension due to a fight he was involved in. 

The pick: Josef Nurcic is going to be able to operate vs. Philadelphia in the paint. Philly has plenty of talent and is a deep team as well, but the late West Coast game, combined with the loss of Embiid will prove to be just too much here to overcome in my opinion. Note as well that Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 100 or more points in its previous outing, while Philly is only 40-45 ATS in its last 85 after scoring 115 points or more. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trailblazers. 

The set-up: Detroit has played better than expected without star Blake Griffin in the line-up as it come sin at 2-3. The Pistons though looked poor in their most recent 125-113 road loss in Toronto. The Bulls though were expected to take a step forward this season, but so far their young talent has produced just a 1-4 record, including having lost three straight. 

The pick: Detroit is now also dealing with injuries to Reggie Jackson and Derrick Rose. Additionaly note that Detroit is a terrible 12-28 ATS in their last 40 after failing to cover in three of its last four ATS, while Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after faling to cover the spread in three or more straight games. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points.

8* play on the Chicago Bulls.

The set-up: The desperate Nets are poised to win this game outright in my opinion, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these teams has it hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. Houston comes in off a one point OT win in the Nation's capital vs. a terrible Wizards tam. Yes Houston has two fantastic players in James Harden and Russell Westbrook, but after that they get pretty thin. 

The pick: And in a "situation" like this where they just finished a marathon OT contest and now face a desperate Nets team that will be risking life and limb after starting the season 1-3, there's no question that this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the home side. Additionally note that Houston is a terrible 5-12 ATS in its last 17 after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games, while the Nets are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games. This one has upset written all over it.

10* play on the Brooklyn Nets.

The set-up: What do you base your picks on? I base my selections on many different things. This particular play is based upon the fact the Pelicans are so far winless this year and they're going to be playing their hearts out to get off the schneid. They're still without Zion Williamson and yes admittedly, the Nuggets are a much better and deeper team. But I believe that the visitors come in flat here after their outright 109-106 loss at home to the Mavericks. 

The pick: The Pelicans have faced stiff competition to open the year, but note that they're 13-6 ATS in their last 19 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Nuggets are just 11-17 ATS in their last 28 off an upset loss as a favorite. In a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can.

10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on the New Orleans Pelicans.

The set-up: The Grizzlies ended a two-game losing streak with a big OT win at home over the Nets and I look for this young visiting side to carry that momentum over here. The Lakers lost to the Clippers on opening night, but they've since won back-to-back games over Utah and Charlotte. With upcoming road games vs. an improved Dallas team up next, followed by San Antonio and Chicago, would anyone fault LA for looking past its lowly opponent today? Memphis' young core of Jae Crowder, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Jonas Valanciunas will be able to keep this one competitive once again in my opinion. 

The pick: Yes the Lakers have Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Dwight Howard, but they're still without Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo. Memphis has struggled defensively in the early going, but LA has so far only averaged 105.7 PPG, which ranks 23rd. Additionally note that Memphis is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 120 points or more, while LA is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I think LA does indeed get caught looking past the hungry Grizzlies today, so grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Memphis Grizzlies.

The set-up: Damian Lillard has scored at least 30 points in each of his first two games for the Blazers. Hassan Whiteside and CJ MCCollum round out a powerful and veteran line-up. Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Doncic have been great for the Mavericks, but I think the lack of depth off the bench will ultimately prove to be too much for the Mavs today. 

The pick: Additionally note that Portland is 24-12 ATS in its last 36 after scoring 120 points or more in its previous outing, while Dallas is a poor 14-16 ATS in its last 30 as a home favorite of six points or less. I like Whiteside to slow down Porzingis tonight and I look for the deeper bench of Portland to do the rest. Grab the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The set-up: Phoenix held a lead in Denver for most of the night last night, but it wasn't to be in its eventual 108-107 OT loss. Playing the second game of a back-to-back is never easy, but let's get real. We're still in the first week of the season and these are professional athletes. I'll argue that playing again so quickly is actually a benefit for the clearly "gelling" Suns, who blew out the Kings in their opener. The Clippers are off to a 2-0 start and they definitely appear to be the team to beat in the NBA this season. 

The pick: The Clippers took out the Lakers and then the Warriors in Golden State, but with games against the Suns tonight and then the Hornets at home on Monday, would anyone fault LA for taking the foot off the gas here tonight? I like the home side to shake off last night's loss and to defend its own floor. That said, grab the generous points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Phoenix Suns.

The set-up: The Bulls lost 126-125 in Charoltte on opening night, but I think this fast-paced visiting side will have more than enough in the tank to take out the lowly home side here. Lauri Markkanen was a bright spot in a losing cause for Chicago with 35 points and 17 boards and its defense catches a break here facing Memphis, which fell 120-101 in Miami in its opener. 

The pick: Ja Morant was the No. 2 pick in the draft last year for Memphis and he finished with 14 points and four assists. But the Grizz are still a poor 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous outing. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion.

10* play on the Chicago Bulls.

The set-up: Minnesota beat the Nets on Opening night in an OT decision, but I think the team has a predictable letdown here. Charlotte enters off a hard-fought upset win at home over the Bulls and with nothing to lose, I think the home side can keep this one competitive until the final moments again. Last year the Wolves averaged 112.5 PPG and allowed 111.1. 

The pick: Dwayne Bacon had 22 points for the Hornets in their 126-125 win over the Bulls. last season Charlotte averaged 110.4 PPG and it conceded 114.0. Note though that the Hornets are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing on one days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, while the Wolves are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight following an ATS victory. While this one has "upset" written all over it, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on Charlotte.

The set-up: The Pistons were 41-41 last year and they were the eighth seed in the East, while Indiana was 48-34 and ended up as the fourth seed last year. The Pistons enter the year on full health (other than Griffin) and welcome back all of their core players from last year. Detroit also signed Derrick Rose and Markieff Morris amonth others. 

The pick: The Pacers are awaiting for their super star Victor Oladipo to return from injury and I think they'll have a hard time adjusting on opening night. Indiana signed Malcom Brogdon to run the point, but I think he'll have his hands full as well tonight with Rose and company. I think Detroit has everything in place to improve this year and even with Oladipo in the line-up, I believe that the Pacers have the potential to take a big step back. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Detroit Pistons.

The setup: Whether KD plays or not tonight, I like the Warriors to postpone this series at least one more game after tonight. The Warriors have been decimated by injury during the playoffs and it finally caught up to them in the Finals. Despite that though, with Stephen Curry an Klay Thompson both given a green light for the defending champs, then GS has much more than just a puncher chance in this one. So far Toronto has been tight defensively, but the team is in unchartered territory here. I think the Raptors will struggle to put away the Warriors in this crucial spot. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up great for the underdog tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Golden State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine in revenging two straight straight up losses to an opponent (including 2-0 ATS this year), while Toronto is only 2-3 ATS this season after two or more straight road wins by ten points or more. Grab as many points as you can.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: Golden State finally lost a game without Kevin Durant in the line-up and if its not careful here, it’s going to find itself in a 2-0 hole before heading back to Golden State. Durant isn’t expected in the line-up today either, but I still think that the experience that the Warriors bring to the table will help them earn a split North of the border. Toronto got a super human effort from Paskal Sikiam in Game 1 and I definitely am not expecting “lightning to strike twice” for the Raptors. I believe Steve Kerr makes the necessary adjustments to help his team even this series before heading home. 

The pick: Note as well that Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when playing on two days rest, while the Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on two days rest. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let’s grab the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: Momentum. It can be an almost tangible factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. Toronto looked decent over the first half of both Game’s 1 and 2 in the ECF’s in Milwaukee, but it would fade each time in the second. The Raptors though are now back in this series after their dramatic double OT Game 3 win and I believe they’re going to carry that “momentum” over into Game 4 for another victory.

The pick: Giannis when guarded by Kawhi in Game 3: 41 possessions, 4 PTS, 2-12 FG, 0-3 3PT, 1 AST, 2 TO. Note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following an OT cover and SU victory in its previous outing. Grab the points.

Toronto Raptors

10* play

The set-up: Golden State rolled to two straight victories at home over the Blazers and whether Kevin Durant plays or not tonight, I think the defending champs offer great value to do it again here as well. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 61 points in the Game 2 victory. Portland looked decent for big stretches of Game 2, but Golden State’s relentless defensive attack, combined with its overall talent and experience is proving to be too much for Portland to get past. And now with a chance to put the (next to) last nail in the coffin, I believe GS steps up and answers the call. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is interestingly 8-2 ATS in its last ten in the third game of a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This is a bad matchup for Portland. Grab the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Toronto is already 9-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and 3-0 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. I think the momentum that Toronto has created is real and I think it’ll take this one right down to the wire (at the very least.) Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: This has been a very unpredictable series. Each team has looked great at times, and really inconsistent in others. With everything on the line, I expect this one to be decided by whichever one of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Portland snapped its two-game losing streak at home in Game 6 and it comes in averaging 112.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Blazers looked decent defensively last time out as well in holding Denver to 108 points. The Nuggets are averaging 110.2 PPG in the postseason. Denver has been inconsistent on the defensive end as well in the playoffs, most recently giving up 119 points to Portland. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 11-5 ATS this season following a home win by ten points or more, while Denver is just 11-13 ATS this year off a road loss. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points.

Portland Trail Blazers

10* play

The set-up: DeMarcus Cousins got injured in the first round for the Warriors, but he could return if Golden State can advance. The defending champs will try to close this series tonight without star Kevin Durant and while it clearly won’t be easy, they still do possess more than enough talent, experience and savvy to take this one outright. Golden State hasn’t been getting great production from either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson in this series, but they’re going to have to step up here and answer the call tonight. Golden State has been great in slowing down James Harden in this series and I expect another strong effort on the end of the floor tonight as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 in trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is only 6-7 ATS this year following a loss by six points or less. I think a “shocker” could be in order, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: Ex Celtic player and current analyst Paul Pierce confidently proclaimed that this series was “over” after the C’s took Game 1, but since then the Bucks have won three straight. The Celtics have the experience and talent to match pace with Milwaukee on both ends of the floor, but the chemistry that the Bucks enjoyed in the regular season continues, while Boston’s inability to find a firm identity once again is coming back to hurt it. But I don’t think that Kyrie Irving and company will be going down without a fight tonight. 

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road overall, while Milwaukee is just 4-10 ATS the last 14 in this series at home. Irving is in the worst three-game shooting slump in the playoffs for his career, but I believe that streak ends tonight. Outright victory? Probably not, but much closer than what this speed would suggest. Grab the points.

10* BOSTON CELTICS

The set-up: Toronto will have to proceed without Pascal Siakam, who suffered a leg injury, but I still think it offers great value to even this series up before heading back home. Toronto has struggled offensively over the first three games, but it continues to get great play from Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 31.5 points, 6.9 boards and 3.3 assists per game. Toronto looked poor defensively by allowing 116 points in Game 3, but previous to that it had been the best in the playoffs on that end of the court. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 5-1 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a favorite, while Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS this season off a win by ten points or more as an underdog. I think the deep and talented Raptors get back on track here and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Toronto Raptors

10* play

The set-up: The Bucks destroyed the Blake Griffin-less Pistons in the first round and the Celtics smashed the Pacers. Milwaukee though ran into a buzz saw of a defense in Game 1 vs. Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full again here as well. The Celtics completely dominated in the lop-sided 112-90 Game 1 victory. Overall Boston is averaging only 101.8 PPG in the playoffs, but it’s making up for it on the other end by leading the way on the defensive end in conceding only 91.4 PPG. The Bucks are averaging 115.4 PPG and they’re allowing 100.8. Of course those numbers are skewed after their Round 1 destruction of the hapless Pistons.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 26-6 ATS in its last 32 off an upset win as an underdog (including 6-0 ATS this year), while Milwaukee is interestingly 2-3 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. I don’t expect Boston to go down easily here. Grab the points.

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: Portland took out the Thunder in five games, while Denver needed seven games to get past the Spurs. While Denver took three of four in the regular season series, I think the home side comes out flat and tired after its marathon opening round series victory. The Blazers come in rested and prepared with over a week off. Over the first round Portland allowed 111 PPG and it conceded 105.2. The Nuggets averaged 105.1 PPG vs. the Spurs, while allowing 103.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Denver is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 90 points or less. I believe fatigue is a factor for a Nuggets team which struggled with consistency in its first round. Grab the points.

Portland Trail Blazers

10* play

The set-up: Both teams dominated in their opening round series. I think we have to take the Bucks’ four game sweep of the Pistons with a grain of salt though, as Detroit played without star Blake Griffin for most of it. Boston steamrolled the Pacers by averaging 99.3 PPG and allowing only 91.8. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG and it allowed 98. 

The pick: Boston comes in peaking at the right time here though. The Celtics have a ton of depth and experience and they have the ability to win this one outright. Note that the C’s are 5-0 ATS their last five on the road, while the Bucks are a terrible 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 when playing on three or more days rest. The outright is possible, but grab the points.

Boston Celtics

9* play

The set-up: Do or die, now or never, use whatever motivational phrase you want, but if the Clippers can’t find a way to duplicate their Game 2 winning effort, then their season will end tonight. LA came close to evening up the series in Game 4, but ultimately it came up short, going on to easily cover with the ample spread that it was afforded. The Warriors lost the services of big man DeMarcus Cousins, but the core remains. But while they enter having won three straight, I think a small letdown is inevitable. No outright, but closer than expected.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but LA is 6-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS, while Golden State is a poor 15-22 ATS this season after two or more SU wins. LA’s starters lack the scoring depth of their counterparts, but its depth keeps it in this one late once again in my opinion. Grab the points.

LA Clippers

10* play

The set-up: The Nets took Game 1, but favored Philadelphia then responded with three straight convincing victories. Brooklyn won’t be going down without a fight today though and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright win, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. The Nets haven’t had any issues offensively, but it’s been on the defensive side which they’ve lacked. In Game 1 though they shut down Ben Simmons and company and clearly a similar effort is going to be needed here as well. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the 76ers, as they’ve sure looked a lot better since that Game 1 loss, but consistency from game to game has plagued the team all year and after three straight victories, there’s no question that this does set up as a small letdown spot. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nets are 12-5 ATS this season when playing with two days rest and 33-18 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia is just 11-12 ATS when playing on two days rest and only 3-13 ATS this year after having won three of its last four games. Grab the points.

Brooklyn Nets

10* play

The set-up: The Spurs took Game 1, 101-96, before Denver took Game 2 by a score of 114-105. The Spurs scored the 118-108 home win in Game 3 and I believe this pattern will continue as I look for Denver to now respond in Game 4. 

The pick: These teams are very evenly matched and it wouldn’t be very difficult to write a convincing argument for either of them. For me it comes down to the Nuggets being th more motivated side here, as well as the fact that the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Also note that Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by ten points or more. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: San Antonio shocked the Nuggets in Game 1 with an outright win and Denver had its hands full in Game 2 as well. But Nikola Jokic and company finally got it figured out in the second half of Game 2 to overcome a 19 point deficit to beat San Antonio and I believe they’ll carry that momentum over here. Denver was one of the best on the defensive end of the floor all year and that showed by holding the Spurs to just 103 points average over the first two games. San Antonio also looked good by holding the Nuggets to an average 96 points, but they’d allow 114 last time out and I think they’ll once again have problems containing this now confident visiting side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is 6-1 in its last seven after a home victory, while SA is just 9-13 ATS this season after playing two straight on the road. Grab the points and expect a war until the final horn.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: Utah didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 1, but I think it’ll “come to play” in Game 2 as it looks to earn a coveted split in Houston. Utah played well offensively and defensively during the regular season, but it shot only 39 percent from the field in Game 1. The Jazz now play with “triple revenge” here as well after losing three straight to the Rockets. After a 34 point loss and facing an 0-2 hole, it’s “now or never” for Donovan Mitchell and company.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Houston just 9-10 ATS this season off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end.

Utah Jazz

10* play

The set-up: No need to over think this one. Denver was shocked in Game 1 by the Spurs aggressive defensive play, but after three straight victories (including tw to end the regular season), I think the Spurs come out flat here in Game 2. The Nuggets on the other hand will have to push the pace from start to finish here. Denver was the best team in the league over the first half, but a somewhat lacklustre second, combined with the Game 1 loss has the team in “panic” mode at this point in my opinion. There’s no way the Nuggets can go to San Antonio down 0-2 and expect to win this series.

The pick: Note that the Spurs are only 11-12 ATS as a road underdog this season and just 5-11 ATS after a win by six points or less, while Denver is still 25-17 ATS at home overall and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. Lay the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the undermanned Pacers. Boston won three of the four regular season meetings. Indiana won just four of its final 13 regular season games, a slide which cost it home floor advantage in the first round. And now the Celtics will look to take advantage themselves. Indiana averages 108 PPG and it allows 104.7. Boston won six of its final eight games. The Celtics average 112.4 PPG, while allowing 108. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Look for Boston’s depth and overall superior talent, combined with the home floor advantage to prove to be too much for the Pacers in Game 1. Lay the points.

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: You’d think that Philadelphia would have a clear advantage in this matchup, but in the regular season that wasn’t the case, as these team’s split four meetings. Overall Brooklyn averages 112.2 PPG and it allows 112.3. D’Angelo Russell averages 26.7 points and 8.1 assists per game. The 76ers average 115.2 PPG and they allow 112.5. Joel Embiid averages 28 points and 11.6 boards per game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though but Brooklyn is 25-16 ATS on the road this year, while Philadelphia is just 27-31 ATS as a favorite this year. These two team’s are both very deep and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.

Brooklyn Nets

9*

The set-up: Miami’s been eliminated from playoff contention, but I still think that Dwayne Wade and company come to play tonight. The Heat are 6-5 in the second game of back-to-back situations this year, putting up an average of 110.1 PPG and allowing 105.7 in those contests. The Nets have nothing to play for here, as they’ve already punched their ticket to the postseason. Brooklyn is unable to change its position with a win or loss today. Expect the home side to rest starters.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Brooklyn is just 19-21 ATS at home. I think Miami’s back-ups come in hungry and angry as they look to take out their frustrations on a Nets team that will simply be going through the motions as it looks to now avoid any serious injuries before the playoffs. Grab the points.

Miami Heat

10* play

The set-up: Outright victory? Probably not. But the Lakers look more competitive now than at any other time this season and after back-to-back victories, I look for the home side to push the Blazers to brink here as well. The Blazers come in off a tough home win over the Nuggets and a “letdown/trap” looks imminent in my opinion. Note that Denver was playing without its top three players as well in that one, as Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray were all sitting out. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is just 7-8 ATS this year as well following a division game, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after a win by six points or less. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. 

LA Lakers

The set-up: The Grizzlies are going to try and play spoiler here as the Pistons playoff hopes are still up in the air. The Grizz come in off a two-point loss to the Mavs, but Memphis has been competitive down the stretch and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here. Detroit comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 6-2 ATS this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Detroit is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a home loss by ten points or more. Look for Memphis to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

Memphis Grizzlies

10* play

The set-up: Denver is gunning for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference still and I think it has a legitimate shot at completing a home and home sweep of the Blazers here. With their 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, Denver has wrapped up its first division title since 2010. The Nuggets though still have a shot at taking the No. 1 spot in the entire Western Conference, so I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here. The Blazers have gone 4-2 since losing big man Jusuf Nurkic and they continue to play without the services of star CJ McCollum as well. 

The pick: I’ll point out as well that the Blazers are now just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five vs. above .500 teams, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the +0.5 to +4.5 points range. Expect the visitors to take this one right down to the wire, if not scoring the outright upset in the process. Grab the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: Brooklyn comes in off an impressive 133-128 road win over Milwaukee and I think it carries that momentum over here. Indiana comes in off a 117-97 home loss to Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full here vs. this surging Nets side. To say this is a “revenge” game as well would be a huge understatement, as the Pacers have won nine straight in the series, including two already this season. Neither team can let the foot off the gas as the playoffs loom, but from a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up fantastic for the visitors. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing SU record, while the Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. I’m grabbing the points, but I won’t be shocked by an outright upset.

Brooklyn Nets

9* play

The set-up: This one has the feel of whichever of these defensive minded clubs has its hands on the ball last is going to win this game. In a contest which I do indeed see coming “down to the wire,” I’m going to recommend grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were knocked out of the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament game to WVU, but since then Texas Tech has been unstoppable and after beating No. 1 Gonzaga, I believe they carry that momentum over here. MSU survived Duke, but the Spartans experience their toughest matchup to date. Michigan State has struggled with offensive consistency this season, which doesn’t bode well facing the Red Raiders right now.

The pick: Clearly these teams are evenly matched. I’ll point out though that Texas Tech is already 3-1 ATS this year as a neutral court underdog or pick and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick and only 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10* play

The set-up: The Celtics are on the road to face the Pacers and I’m expecting a complete war until the end. Boston comes in on top form after a home and home sweep of the Heat, most recently a 112-102 victory in Miami on Wednesday. The Pacers also come in off back-to-back wins, most recently a 108-89 victory at Detroit on Wednesday. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 108, while Indiana averages 108 PPG, while allowing only 104.1. 

The pick: Before beating the Pistons (twice, it was also a home and home set. Also note that Blake Griffin didn’t play for either), the Pacers had lost seven of their previous eight games. I like surging Boston to find a way to get the job done here as it looks for a leg-up in the playoff positioning. 

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: Cleveland is off a 122-113 loss at Phoenix on Monday, while Sacramento is off a 130-105 home loss to Houston on Tuesday. The Cavs play with revenge here after the Kings scored the 129-110 road win back on December 7th. Cleveland has little to play for at this point obviously, but after six straight losses, I expect it to put up a fight here vs. the floundering Kings, who come in clearly out of gas having lost three of their last four. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically for the visitors. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Cavaliers are already 9-3 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and 14-5 ATS after failing to cover in three of their last four vs. the spread, while Sacramento is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.

Cleveland Cavaliers

10* play

The set-up: The Rockets laid the hammer down on the Kings last night and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. LA is on a 13-2 run in its last 15, but I think it’ll still have its hands full with this surging visiting side. Houston needs to keep the foot on the gas here as it battles Portland for third seed in the Western Conference. LA has beaten Cleveland and Memphis, but the Rockets are an entirely different “animal” obviously.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, while LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the +0.5 to +3.5 range. Look for James Harden and company to keep it rolling on Wednesday night.

10* play

The set-up: With a chance to erase a shaky start to the 2019 NCAA Tournament with a big win, I look for Duke to finally put it all together and ride its super stars to a solid victory over MSU in Elite Eight. Neither team has an advantage at coach obviously (and no need to talk about their past or any of their records, even the most casual CBB fan is fully aware of Mike Krzyzewksi and Tom Izzo’s accomplishments). It’s been a couple of “close calls” for the Blue Devils, but the combination of RJ Barrett, Tre Jones and Zion Williamson combined for 63 points in their last win and I think they’ll prove a matchup problem for the Spartans. Slowing down LSU is one thing, but I think MSU is going to have a much more difficult time from this highly motivated Duke side that’s now playing with a chip on its shoulder. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Duke is 3-1 ATS this season after falling to cover the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on Duke.

9* play

The set-up: Dallas comes in off a 105-99 loss in Miami, while OKC fell 115-105 at home to the Nuggets. The Thunder took the last game between these teams 122-102 on December 31st, but the Mavs are 2-1 so far in the season series. OKC is barely holding onto the eighth seed in the West right, tied with the Spurs, so the motivation to play spoiler is definitely real for the visitors today. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 when playing with two days rest, while the Thunder are only 18-19 ATS at home this year and only 4-6 ATS in their last ten off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. OKC continues to stumble and I like Dallas to once again push it to the brink. Grab the points.

Dallas Mavericks

10* play

The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, the oddsmakers are expecting a very tight game. And while I don’t think the outright win is out of the question, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. The Tigers are on a roll right now and the momentum they’ve created is very real. And at this time of year in sports, “momentum” can ver a very real and even tangible factor. After winning the SEC tournament, the Tigers have won four straight, most recently destroying Kansas 89-75, before then dismantling the No. 1 seed Tar Heels. Kentucky was rolling along until a tougher than expected 62-58 win over No. 3 Houston (note that that Wildcats had 14 turnovers, which were offset by a 36-23 rebounding discrepancy.) 

The pick: Auburn suffered a blow with the injury to Okeke, but Auburn still possesses the talent to hang around late. I’m expecting a war until the end. Grab the points.

Auburn Tigers

10* play

The set-up: It’s a contrast of styles. They do say that “defense” wins championships, but for the most part that pertains to the gridiron. Texas Tech though has looked brilliant on both ends of the court and I believe they’re going to give the No. 1 seed everything it can handle tonight. Texas Tech destroyed Michigan 63-44 in the Sweet 16, while Gonzaga easily handled FSU 72-58. In the win over the Wolverines the Red Raiders show 43.6 percent from the floor while holding Michigan to just 32.7 percent shooting. The Bulldogs shot 40.3 percent in their win over the Seminoles, while holding FSU to 37.2 percent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas Tech is a perfect 5-0 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while Gonzaga is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive tams which allow 64 points or less per contest. I think defense wins the day in this one. That said, grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10* play

The set-up: The Jazz have won three straight and I think they’re going to get caught “looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Washington broke a five-game losing streak with a win over Phoenix in its latest outing. So far the Wizards have average 114.3 PPG, while allowing 117.1. The Jazz come in having won eight of their last night, but they still only average 110.0 PPG. Utah does allow only 105.9 PPG, but this is in fact a spot in which its struggled in all year. 

The pick: As note that the Jazz are just 9-14 ATS this season after two or more consecutive wins. Washington on the other hand is a sharp 23-16 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. I think this one will be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

Washington Wizards

10* play

Selection: The set-up: Auburn comes in “under the radar” in my opinion, beating Mexico State in the first round, followed by an 89-75 destruction of Kansas in the second round. UNC enters off a win over Iona and a big 81-59 victory over Washington on Sunday. Auburn won the SEC tournament and they come into this one having won nine straight. Overall the Tigers average 79.8 PPG, while allowing 68.5. The Tar Heels have won ten of 11 and average 86 points, while conceding 72.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a neutral court underdog or pick, while UNC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine post-season tournament games. I think Auburn’s depth and momentum keeps it in this game late. Grab the points.

Auburn Tigers

9* play

The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, I’m going to recommend what I feel to be a healthy amount of points in the end. MSU has cruised to this point with relatively simple wins over Bradley and Minnesota, while LSU struggled to get by Yale and Maryland. Overall the Tigers average 80.9 PPG, while allowing 72.9. The Spartans average only 75.8 PPG, while conceding just a 37.7 percent field goal shooting percentage. 

The pick: The Tigers have weathered the storm and won’t be going down without a fight. While MSU sports the clearly superior defense, LSU’s offense will push the Big Ten favorite to the brink in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is already 8-2 ATS in its last ten after a win by six points or less, while MSU is 0-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

LSU

9* play

The set-up: Both teams easily destroyed their first two opponents. I expect a battle until the end between these evenly matched teams. I also believe that this number is much too low. The Red Raiders most recently destroyed Buffalo 78-58, as all five starters scored in double digits. Overall the Red Raiders average 73.2 PPG, while allowing only 59.2. Michigan though is back in the Sweet 16 for a third straight season. The Wolverines average 78.2 PPG, while allowing only 58.2.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but TT is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points, while Michigan is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points. I’m expecting an all out war and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two very evenly matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

 6* play

The set-up: Purdue advanced with an 87-61 win over Villanova on Saturday, while Tennessee advanced with an 83-77 OT victory over Iowa. The last time these teams played together was in 2017 at the Battle 4 Atlantis and the Vols posted the 78-75 OT win. Purdue puts up an average of 76.1 PPG, while allowing 66.1. The Vols are averaging 81.7 PPG, while allowing only 68.9. 

The pick: Purdue though is still just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, while Tennessee is 10-5 ATS this year after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. I think the Vols depth and pace proves to the be the difference. Play on Tennessee.

9* play

The set-up: Outright victory? VERY possible in my opinion! The Bulldogs and Seminoles are evenly matched. Gonzaga beat Fairleigh Dickinson and Baylor to advance, while FSU beat Vermont and Murray State. Last year the Seminoles destroyed the Bulldogs 75-60 in the Sweet 16 and I think a similar upset is possible here as well. FSU comes in on top form having won eight of their last nine and it is 16-2 since January. The Noles allow 67 PPG, while the Zags allow 64.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Gonzaga is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 NCAA games and interestingly only 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. the ACC, while FSU is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral-site games. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points. 

10* play