The set-up: I think the Heat will take the Lakers down to the wire at the very least in Game 5. LA's bench players have to be feeling pretty nervous right now, as the hardest thing to do in the playoffs is to close out a team and win a championship. Miami clearly won't be rolling over here. LeBron James came back from a 3-1 deficit with the Cavaliers in the Finals to beat the Warriors. Eric Spolestra has been great at making game-to-game adjustments and he'll have something prepared tonight for his team as they try to avoid elimination. 

The pick: LA is still just 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after scoring 99 points or less in a loss in their previous outing. These teams are exhausted, both mentally and physically at this point, but all signs point to another battle until the end in Game 5. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Miami Heat.

The set-up: If you want an ESPN summary of what each individual player did in Game 3, then go to ESPN. If you're wagering on this contest, cleary you're familar with the cast of characters and the overall storyline. I'm here to tell you why I think the Lakers are going to streamroll the Heat in Game 4. LeBron James looked like a moron leaving the court early and he knows that the one thing that cures everything is "winning." When the Lakers big men assert themselves, the Heat have no answers and that's exactly what I expect to see happen here. Jimmy Butler was amazing in Game 3, but there's on way he can duplicate that effort again here.

The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater setback in their previous outing. No need to overanalyze in my opinion, as this one has "beatdown" written all over it. Lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Lakers.

The set-up: If you're wagering on this game, then you don't need me to fill you in on these teams strengths and the weaknesses and the cast of characters involved. All of these things are already known even by the most casual NBA fan. Besides, you can go to any sports website to obtain that information. I'm here to tell you why the Heat are going to at the very least, cover with the decent spread they've been afforded here. 

The pick: The Heat have done well in the playoffs, especially defending the perimeter and in shooting percentage. With a couple of days off to prepare, I think that Eric Spolestra will have a game-plan in place to counter what the Lakers will have in store. Also note that the Heat are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 overall. Miami has been overlooked throughout these playoffs and I think that LA does as well here. That said, grab the points.

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Heat.

The set-up: If not for Anthony Davis's game winning three-point shot in Game 2, this series could be drastically different. Denver predictably came out flat in Game 1 after its second straight seven game series victory, but it's quickly made adjustments and now it's 1-2 after taking Game 3 convincingly. I had a play on LA in Game 1, but I think that Denver now has the "blue-print" to beat LA and while that may or may not in fact happen, in my opinion everything points to another "nail-biter!" 

The pick: I'll point out as well that LA is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 108 points or less in its previous outing, while Denver is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after scoring 114 points or more in a win in their last outing. 

This is a 10* GAME 4 BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: The Nuggets have the Lakers right where they want them! That's the "joke" right now after Denver has come back from consecutive 3-1 deficits to win their last two series in seven games. The Lakers look like the better team to this point, but they got a huge shot from Anthony Davis to win Game 2. If he misses that one, who knows how Game 2 ends. Regardless, after getting blown out in Game 1 the Nuggets clearly made adjustments to counter LA and it almost worked. I think Denver's ability to adapt and make adjustments on the fly is its greatest strength and I believe it could in fact help it come out on top outright here. 

The pick: Note as well that the Nuggets are 7-1 in their last eight games when trailing in a playoff series, while the Lakers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven in this series as the favorite. I'm not counting out the Nuggets quite yet. That said, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: I had a play on the Lakers in Game 1 and I think they now have the blue-print to sweep this Denver team in four. The Nuggets come off back-to-back seven game series where they had to dig themselves out of a 3-1 hole. It's an emotional game and I think that Denver is out of gas and it's "magic" has run out. The Lakers started slowly in the first quarter in Game 1, but then a quick adjustment saw them dominate the rest of the way, especially defensively.

The pick: Nikola Jokic is going to have a heck of a time slowing down Anthony Davis, who I expect to once again have a big game here. The Lakers are too tough defensively for Jamal Murray to operate effectively either. I'm laying the points and expecting another blowout from start to finish. 

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Lakers.

The set-up: Obviously you can't count out the Nuggets in any situation, however I'm definitely going to do just that in Game 1. Denver has a reputation now of being quite the survivor after back-to-back series of having to climb out of a 1-3 hole. The Lakers though are rested and they have the big men in their line-up to easily handle Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets. With Jokic neutralized, the savvy veteran guards of the Lakers are going to be able to operate and make it difficult for Jamal Murray to get any open looks. This is an extremely poor matchup for Denver, which has no answer for LeBron James. 

The pick: LA is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after four or more days of rest. I think the back-to-back seven games series comes back to fatigue Denver and I love the Lakers to finally get out to a big start in a playoff series in the bubble with a commanding full four quarter effort. I'm laying the points.

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on the LA Lakers.

The set-up: With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel that these teams are very evenly matched. And these two teams are. Both have great coaches and each is filled with talent that can put the ball in the hoop. Each is also extremely committed to the defensive side of things. So why will Miami win/cover in Game 1? I believe for sure that the few extra days off after taking care of the Bucks in five games is HUGE right now. The Celtics on the other hand just went through an exhausting seven game series vs. Boston and after that emotional win, I think a letdown here is imminent. 

The pick: Note that Miami is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after playing with four or more whole days off. As primarily a situational handicapper, this particular one sets up fantastically for the Heat in my opinion.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Miami Heat.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 4 and while that came up short, so too did the Nuggets. Denver was down 3-1 to the Jazz in its opening round series, before then posting three straight victories. Anything is possible, but the likliehood of that happening again is very slim. I don't think it's going to happen and Denver may well even lose this game outright, but I absolutely expect the Nuggets to fight hard, risking life and limb today to try and stay alive. LA has gotten fantastic and new flawless play from everyone over the last two games and I think its poised for a bit of a mental "letdown" in Game 5.

The pick: Additionally note that the Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after being held to 88 points or less in a loss in their previous outing. I expect Denver to push the pace and to at the very least, keep this one close until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: Houston dominated in Game 1, but since then it's been all the Lakers. I think though that Houston is going to give its best shot here to try and get back into this series and while I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The Lakers have used their size well over the last two games, but Houston has done well in this spot for bettors over the year, as note that it's 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after a ten point or larger loss to an opponent in its last outing. 

The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a ten points or larger victory in their last outing. I think the desperation level in which the hungry Rockets play with tonight turns out to be the difference maker. Grab the points!

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Houston Rockets.

The set-up: This has been a back and forth series and with a spread like this, obviously the bookmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. And I agree. These teams are very similar, filled with talent and deep benches. The advantage that Toronto now has is two-fold though, as not only does it cleraly have the "momentum" back in this series (which I feel is crucial in the playoffs), but it also has the experience. And that's something you can't teach, only earn. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a five points or higher SU/ATS victory in their last outing in the playoffs. Boston is now mentally on the ropes here and I think the defending champs can smell the blood in the water. I'm banking on the Raptors riding the wave of momentum they've created to another solid ATS/SU victory in Game 5.

The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Raptors.

The set-up: I don't believe the Bucks are going to get swept. I thought Milwaukee would win this series, but now the odds are against it for that happening. All of that said though, I think the Bucks will finally put together a full four quarter effort here and find a way to avoid getting swept. The Heat have won seven straight, but I think a letdown is inevitable. Miami's defense has been spectacular, but it's shooting percentage seems unsustainable to me over the long-term. 

The pick: Miami is also just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a five games or longer ATS/SU unbeaten streak. Also note that Milwaukee is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more SU/ATS losses. Milwaukee plays with pride and pushes this one to a Game 5.

The is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Milwaukee Bucks.

The set-up: Do I think that the Miami Heat are a better team than the Milwaukee Bucks?! Of course not. I'll admit that Miami has definitely played a lot better than the Bucks to this point, but I think that'll finally change in Game 3. Giannis Antetokounmpo fouled Jimmy Butler with no time left on the clock in Game 2 and that's how the Bucks would lose. Clearly Giannis is going to be feeling responsible and I like the back-to-back MVP to come out and dominate in this game.

The pick: And that's good news for the rest of the Bucks, who will finally have some room to operate. The Heat have been excellent, they could easily win this series, but I think they finally have a letdown here after playing at such a high-level for such an extended period of time. Milwaukee actually won the rebound battle in Game 2 (50-38). Look for the Bucks to finally hit their stride and lay the points with confidence.

The is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Milwaukee Bucks.

The set-up: The Nuggets made adjustments against the Jazz and won three straight. Denver did it by domianting defensively and getting great play from star players Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. I think the "momentum" that Denver has created is a real, tangible factor and I believe it'll ride that wave to another solid performance here against the Clippers. LA also got better in its series vs. the Mavericks, but it was far from perfect. I also don't think the exrta few days off will help in LA's chemistry, which it was definitely lacking at times vs. Dallas. Denver on the other hand is firing on all cylinders at the most opportune of times and I think that definitely matters here.

The pick: Note as well that Denver is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after holding its previous opponent to 80 points or less, while LA is only 3-6 ATS in its last nine after a three-days or longer break between games. This spread is a little large in my opinion.

The is an 8* ROUT on the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: I think the Thunder will have trouble keeping up with James Harden and company. The Beard is about to take over this game in my opinion and I don't think that Chris Paul and his supporting cast will have what it takes to win a third straight in this series. 

The pick: This one sets up great from a trend based stand point as well, as note that Houston is still 15-7 ATS in its last 22 vs. teams with a win percentage above .600, while OKC is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a SU/ATS victory. I'm laying the points and expecting a dominant victory from start to finish.

The is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Rockets.

The set-up: The Nuggets have won the last two games of this series and I believe the "momentum" they've created is very real. Behind the spectacular play of Jamal Murray, the Nuggets now have a chance to move onto the next round. Utah is going to be so worried about Murray now, that finally center Nikola Jokic is going to have room to operate here. With no crowd, "momentum" is a very real, tangible factor in the bubble and the Nuggets have all of it right now. 

The pick: Note as well that Utah is a poor 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 following a SU loss, while Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. Bank on the Nuggets delivering in the clutch!

The is a an 8* ANNIHILATION on the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: The Thunder have looked great in this series at times and poor in others. The same can be said of the Rockets as well. Russell Westbrook only had 7 points for Houston last time out, but the Rockets still dominated from start to finish. Whether Westbrook has a better game or not, I still think that the Thunder will once again "dig deep" here (just like they did in Game's 1 and 2). Individual player matchups or coaching stratgies are meaningless at this point in my opinion, as the Thunder did in fact dominate this series during the regular season. These teams are evenly matched and I'm expecting a battle until the final horn. 

The pick: Note as well that that Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight following a 30-points or greater loss in their previous outing. Expect OKC to dictate the tempo today and while I wouldn't be shocked by the outright upset, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Thunder.

The set-up: Whether Kristaps Porzingis plays or not, I like Dallas to at the very least, keep this one close enough to easily cover with the large spread that it's been afforded here. The extra time off because of the BLM movement will definitely help in healing up Mavericks' star Luca Doncic's knee as well. Each team has looked great in this series and pedestrian at other times. Bottom line is though is that I feel that they're very evenly matched.

The pick: Dallas is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten after allowing 150 points or more in a loss in its previous outing. Expect Doncic to put the Mavs on his back and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming right down to the wire.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks.

The set-up: Orlando is getting a lot of points here. The Magic won Game 1 outright, but since then it's gone 0-3 SU/ATS vs. the surging Bucks. Do I think that the Magic are going to win this contest outright? I do not. Note though that Orlando has been just a single 3-point shot away in each of the last three games to actually cover the spread. And now it's getting more points in Game 5 than in any other to this point. 

The pick: The strengths and weaknesses are well known for each side, but note that the Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS win, while the Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a double-digit loss. Orlando's players are playing for a position on the team next year and I don't expect it to go down without a fight tonight. Grab the points.

This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Orlando Magic.

The set-up: It's do or die for the Nuggets. The Jazz have looked great over their last two games, but I think Utah doesn't have that "killer instinct" in it and I look for it to struggle against this desperate Nuggets side. The Nuggets got 50 points from Jamal Murray in the 129-127 Game 4 setback. 

The pick: Utah shot almost 60% from the field in Game 4 and I simply don't see that happening again either. Additionally note that the Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous game, while the Jazz are just 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: Oklahoma City had won five straight ATS in this series before the two SU/ATS playoff losses to the Rockets. OKC is filled with talent and Houston has been dealing with injuries, so I'm a little surprised to this point. In fact in Game 2 the Thunder eneterd the fourth quarter with a 1 point lead, but they ended up losing by 13. 

The pick: Thunder guard Chris Paul was only 6 of 15 in Game 2 and I don't see that happening again. I'll still argue that the Thunder are the "deeper" team and I'll point out as well that they're 10-5 ATS in their last 15 following back-to-back losses, which includes a ten points or greater setback in their previous outing. I'm grabbing the points.

This is an 8* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the OKC Thunder.

The set-up: The Mavericks could easily be up 2-0 in this series if star center Kristaps Porzingis wasn't ejected in the second period of Game 1. Dallas was clearly the better team in Game 2 and with the Clippers dealing with injuries to important players still, I have a hard time seeing LA keeping pace with this well oiled Mavericks team which is playing with a chip on its shoulder right now.

The pick: LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as well after a ten points or larger loss in its last game. Does Dallas have a legitimate shot at winning Game 3 outright? With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe it does. And so do I. Grab the points.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. 

The set-up: Denver beat the Jazz in double OT in the regular seaosn and then it also managed to pull for an OT win in Game 1 of this series. The Jazz battled tough though and in Game 2 they laid down the 124-105 smack down and I think they can build off that victory with another one in Game 3. 

The pick: And guess what? Utah won Game 2 without the services of star guard Mike Conley, who now returns to the team after the birth of his son. Additionally note that the Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 10 points or larger victory. Grab the points.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz.

The set-up: Not many would disagree that the teams that doe the best in the playoffs are the one's that are exhibiting the best "chemistry." You can have all the talent in the World on paper, but if you aren't working together as a team, that talent often gets wasted or exploited by units which are playing at an extremely high level together. LA has struggled to cover the spread since the re-start and despite being down 0-1, I don't expect Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to go easy in Game 2. 

The pick: Additionally note that LA is now 0-5 ATS in its last five conference quarter-final contests, while Portland is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 overall. Grab the points.

This is an 8* SURE SHOT DESTRUCTION on the Blazers.

The set-up: Indiana was swept in four games by the Celtics in the first round last year. So far the Pacers are only 1-4 vs. the Heat this season, including falling both SU and ATS in Game 1 of this series. Indiana is led by TJ Warren and with revenge on their minds, I believe the more experienced and hungrier Pacers will bounce back and deliver the goods here.

The pick: Additionally I'll point out that Indiana has gone 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after losing by ten or more points in a playoff contest. Look for Indiana to at the very least, push Miami until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Indiana Pacers.

The set-up: The Mavericks had an eight point lead half way through the third quarter of Game 1, and then big man Kristaps Porzingis got ejected and the Mavs fell apart mentally and failed to cover the spread in the end. Porzingis is back though in Game 2 and I do legitimately believe that Dallas has a chance at taking Game 2 outright. LA is still dealing with several key players missing and I think that catches up to them here.

The pick: Additionally note that the Clippers are still a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight playoff games as a favorite. In a contest which I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks.

The set-up: I took this game early and have an unfavorable line, but I still love this play and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the deep and talented Magic will easily keep this one close enough to cover with the ample points they've been afforded. Both teams were 3-5 in the bubble. The Bucks swept all four regular season games, but the Magic were dealing with several injuries to key players back then. Orlando has Vucevic back which is signficant, but is dealing with an injury to Aaron Gordon, meaning that Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier will have to step up here. 

The pick: I think the Bucks classically get caught a bit complacent in this very first game. Milwaukee is also just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a ten points or greater loss (fell 119-106 to the Grizz.) The odds are clearly against Orlando winning this series or this game, but if it has any shot, it will be in trying to pull off the upset in Game 1. As I stated off the top, I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is a 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Magic.

The set-up: Are the Clippers really deeper and more talented than the Mavericks? Both teams are dealing with injuries right now, but I'd argue that Montrezl Harell's absence for LA is the most significant. Also note that Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet are both questionable for this one as well. The Mavs have a possible injury to Seth Curry, but guys like Tim Hardaway Jr and Trey Burke have been very steady for the Mavs. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that the Clippers are a devastatingly poor 8-22 ATS in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. The Clippers supporting cast is banged up, while the Mavs have two stars in Luca Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis playing at their highest level of their careers. The outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Mavericks.

The set-up: Ja Morant hasn't played very well in the Bubble, but the dynamic guard has a chance to reverse his fortunes here in which he hopes will be a two-game play in series. If Portland wins, then this series is over and the Blazers will go on to face the Lakers. But if Memphis wins, these two teams will play a second game. Portland has played well behind Damian Lillard, but the Grizzlies matchup well with Portland in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that Portland is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the +6 to +12 range. In a game which comes down to the wire, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Memphis Grizzlies.

The set-up: The Suns are 5-0 in the Bubble, that's both SU and ATS, but I think Phoenix finally takes a step back here vs. surging OKC, who enters off a relatively simple 121-103 win over Washington on Sunday afternoon. Note that that Thunder are a super 7-2 ATS in their last nine when playing the second game of a back to back and off a 15 points or more victory. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Suns have a tough game tomorrow night vs. the 76ers, who are just as hungry for victories right now as well. Everything's been going right for the Suns, but now they face a red hot Thunder team with even greater depth and experience. So while clearly the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the OKC Thunder.

The set-up: With a win in their last game, the Bucks have now clinched the top spot in the East. Everything from here on out is to work on playoff strategy, so don't expect to see much of Giannis Antetokounmpo in this one if you're a Milwaukee fan. 

The pick: The Mavericks on the other hand have lost five of their last seven, most recently getting blown out by the Clippers. Dallas is still in a fight for positioning and it absolutely needs to start playing better if it has any shot at advancing in the postseason. So far it's been a letdown for Luca Doncic and company in the bubble, but a game vs. the Bucks' "B-Team" is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track. Outright victory?! Of course! That said, let's grab the points.

This is a 10* UNDERDOG ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Dallas Mavericks.

The set-up: Both teams are in desperate need of a victory here. Dating back finds the Grizzlies entering on a four-game losing slide, while the Jazz are just 1-2 in the Bubble, including losing back-to-back games. The Grizz enter averaging 112.7 PPG and allowing 113.9, while the Jazz are averaging 110.7 and conceding 108. 

The pick: Utah though has performed incredibly well for bettors in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. These teams are very familiar with each other, but the Jazz have the upper hand in a number of matchups (especially in the middle of the paint) and I expect them to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover by the end of the night.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz.

The set-up: The Suns entered the Bubble healthier than they've been all season and that has translated into two straight victories, but I think that Phoenix will finally stumble here vs. this "step up" in competition. The Clippers lost to the Lakers in their first game, before recovering to hammer the Pelicans 126-103 in their second. Phoenix is still 2.5 games behind the Spurs for the eighth spot with six games remaining, but the Clippers are only two games up on third-place Denver. Unfortunately for the Suns, the Clippers can't afford to take the foot off the gas either. 

The pick: Note that the Clippers are now 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. the Western Conference, while the Suns are a poor 2-9 ATS in their last 11 in this series. I believe the Suns lack of depth on the bench gets exposed here as the game comes down the stretch. Lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Clippers.

The set-up: Utah looked out of sorts in its 110-94 setback to the Thunder. The Jazz managed a slim victory over the Pelicans in their opener and while they may not take this game outright, I do think the stage is set for a nail-biter. The Lakers of course looked good in their opener vs. the Clippers, but they seemed pretty disinterested in their second game, a blowout loss to the Raptors. 

The pick: The fact of the matter is, the Lakers only needed to go 1-7 over these final eight games to lock up the top spot in the West and they already did that in their first game. LA does not need to push the pace or risk injury at all over the next two weeks, instead it can already be planning for the playoffs and working on different things related to that. The Jazz though need to find consistency and tonight's game is ultra important in proving that. I'm grabbing the points.

This is an 8* play on the Utah Jazz.

The set-up: The Spurs looked good in their Opening Day win, but they play against a hungry Memphis team on Sunday and I think they'll predictably stumble here vs. a 76ers side which will be out to prove that their blowout loss to the Pacers in their Opener was just an "outlier." 

The pick: As primarily a situational handicapper, these are the types of "spots" that I am always keeping my eyes open for. For all intents and purposes, this becomes a "must win" for Philly, who can't afford any more chemistry issues or execuses. I'm laying the points.

This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia 76ers.

The set-up: The Nuggets looked sluggish in their 125-105 setback to the Heat in their opener, but I think this incredibly deep team will make adjustments and come out much better in its second outing. The Thunder rolled over the Jazz, but Utah had a mental lapse there after its 106-104 Opening night win over the Pelicans. 

The pick: Denver took two of three in the regular season series, as its big men present significant matchup issues for OKC. I expect Denver to indeed make some adjustments and to continue its recent domination of this particular matchup. 

This is an 8* play on the Denver Nuggets. 

The set-up: The Pacers laid the hammer down on Philly 127-121 in their opener and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here as well in their second game vs. the undermanned and "gassed" Wizards. Washington has a game vs. the Nets on Sunday afternoon and I believe it's going to predictably come into this one with "heavy legs." 

The pick: Indiana took two of three in the regular season series and that was without the services of Victor Oladipo. I believe Indiana will push the pace/tempo from the opening tip until the final horn and that's why I have no issues at all in laying these points.

This is a 10* play on the Indiana Pacers.

The set-up: Dallas lost 153-149 to the Rockets in OT in its opening game back, but I believe it'll get the job done tonight in its second outing vs. the Suns, who enter off a 125-112 win over the Wizards in their opener. 

The pick: Dallas took two of three in the season series, as this is a matchup which definitely favors it. Note as well that the Mavs are a sharp 8-4 ATS in their last 12 Western Conference contests after allowing 150 points or more in a loss in their prevoius outing. I'm banking on a bounce back blowout here.

10* play on the Dallas Mavericks.

The set-up: The Spurs looked good in their 129-120 win over the Kings, but I think they'll struggle against the equally as "deep," but now even hungrier Grizzlies, who enter off the tough 140-135 OT setback to the Blazers. 

The pick: The Grizz won two of three in the regular season and I predict another ATS victory here. Note as well that Portland is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after at OT win in which it scored 140 points or more in. I'm banking on the "hungrier" team that lost on Opening night to dig deep and find a way to get the job done at the end of this one.

8* play on the Memphis Grizzlies. 

The set-up: Portland received a two point shot from Carmelo Anthony at the end of regulation to push its opening game vs. the Grizzlies to OT and then the Blazers pulled way for the 140-135 victory. The Celtics on the other hand had to play from behind the entire night vs. the Bucks in their opener and while they played tough, they'd ultimately lose 119-112. 

The pick: I think though that the Blazers come into this contest predictably "gassed," while I look for the much hungrier Celtics, who got much stronger in the second half of their loss to Milwaukee. Note that the C's almost won as well with star Jason Tatum having his worst game almost of his entire career as well. That's not going to happen twice though. Look for this deep Boston side to bounce back with a solid ATS victory on Sunday.

8* play on the Boston Celtics.

The set-up: One team which is certainly not a "fraud" is the Toronto Raptors. The long lay off definitely helps the defending champs, as they had several key players dealing with nagging injury issues. Those are now resolved and this under-rated team comes in looking for a back-to-back opportunity. 

The pick: I think the Lakers come in a step slow here after their opening night contest vs. division rival Clippers. I'm grabbing the points, but I wouldn't be shocked by a straight up situational victory here.

10* play on the Toronto Raptors.

The set-up: The 76ers are a fraud in my opinion until they can finally prove that they can win an important series. Philly was just 10-24 on the road this season as well.  

The pick: The Pacers played well without Victor Oladipo and whether he plays or not, I think Indiana has a real shot at taking this opening contest ouright. Note that Indiana was one of the most effective offensive teams in the NBA, hitting 47.7 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from range. Grab as many points as you can.

8* play on the Indiana Pacers.

The set-up: We're not dealing with your typical scenario obviously with this re-start. For me this particular selection comes down to the fact that the Jazz will be looking to take advantage of New Orleans on Opening Night and won't be prepared for the quick turnaround vs. the deep Thunder. 

The pick: OKC is loaded with talent and it's good on both ends of the floor. The Thunder can't sit back and hope things turn out well here, they have to hit the ground running. As far as "situational" plays go, I think this is as solid as it gets.

8* play on the OKC Thunder.

The set-up: Both teams sit first in their respective divisions. Both teams are going to want to hit the ground running as to build momentum, but I believe that Miami is better prepared on Opening night. Miami is a young team and I think the extra time off will help this group focus. 

The pick: Jamal Murray is questionable as well for Denver, which swings things in favor of Jimmy Butler and the Heat here in my opinion. Miami was poor on the road, but the proximity to home helps it in this situation as well. 

8* play on the Miami Heat.

The set-up: The Mavericks have a golden opportunity to catch up to the Rockets, who are first int he Southwest at 40-24. Dallas is 40-27. To say this is a "big" game right out of the gates would be an understatement. Note that Houston is 29-35-0 ATS this year, while Dallas is 35-29-3. 

The pick: Both teams are dealing with a few injury issues, but certainly Houston's Russell Westbrook having to deal with the coronavirus right now is the biggest blow. Westbrook is listed as questionable for this contest. That's a major issue in my opinion for Houston and I believe that Dallas will attack from the outset in this game. Houston opened as the fav, but now Dallas is. Regardless, I look for the Mavericks depth to prove to be too much for James Harden to overcome by himself on Opening Night.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Dallas Mavericks.

The set-up: These teams have played twice this year already and Indiana is 2-0. Both games have been very competitive though and I fully expect a repeat performance of those contests here. Indiana won 96-90 in OT in the first game, while then also winning 82-74 in the second. The Cornhuskers are the worst team in the Big Ten, but Indiana had plenty of issues as well this season. Not only does Nebraska play with revenge here after the two regular season losses, but it'll also be out to play spoiler, as the Hoosiers are definitely on the bubble as far as making the NCAA Tournament is concerned. 

The pick: Nebraska is also already 2-1 ATS in neutral court games this year and 3-1 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Indiana is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 60 points or less in its previous contest. No outright, but expect a battle until the end. Grab as many points as you can.

10* SHOCKER ELITE OF THE ELITE on Nebraska.

The set-up: Both teams finished 15-15. This is a revenge game for Clemson after it lost 73-68 in OT to the Hurricanes on New Years Eve. The Tigers lost two in a row to end the regular season, while Miami beat Syracuse in OT in its finale. Previous to that though the Hurricanes had lost three straight. Of note, Miami is playing without leading scorer Chris Lykes here, who was injured in a loss vs. Virginia last Wednesday. Clemson has struggled with consistency, but it does have some epic wins, including over Duke, Louisville and Florida State.) 

The pick: Additionally note that Clemson is already 2-0 ATS this year in all neutral court games, while Miami Florida is just 1-3 ATS in all neutral court affairs this season. Clemson's defense is ranked 39th in the nation and it plays with revenge here. I love the Tigers in this matchup.

8* HIGH-NOON SPECIAL on Clemson.

The set-up: Sacramento State is 15-14 and Weber State is 12-19. These teams split a pair of games during the regular season, but I still think that the Hornets are the better and ultimately deeper team in this particular matchup. Sacramento State stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but it ranks sixth in the nation in defense by allowing only 59.9 PPG. Weber State lost three of their final four regular season games, allowing an average of 81.7 PPG in the setbacks. 

The pick: Note as well that Sacramento State is 10-4 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and 8-4 ATS this season after playing its last game as an underdog, while Weber State is a poor 1-3 ATS in all neutral cour games this year. I think the Hornets' incredible defensive play is the difference maker in this one. Lay the points.

10* BIG SKY TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR on Sacramento State.

The set-up: Virginia Tech beat UNC 79-77 in double OT on January 22nd, the only meeting between the schools this season. Both teams ended the regular season with a loss. Both teams disappointed this year overall. Cole Anthony is a lone bright spot for the Tar Heels (19.6 PPG), but beyond him that Tar Heels are very thin. 

The pick: UNC has been a downright disaster for bettors in this spot all year though, going just 5-14 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite, while VT has been money in the bank by going 7-3 ATS this year after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a game as a road underdog. I'm expecting an outright win, but I'm grabbing the points as insurance.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: Toronto comes in off a hard-fought win in Sacramento just last night and I think it'll predictably stumble in this difficult road venue in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Jazz are rested and out to avenge a humbling 130-110 loss in Toronto back in December. This is also the final game of a five-game trip in which the Raptors have already posted three straight wins in. From a situational stand point, I definitely believe this one sets up fantastically for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Toronto is a poor 3-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and only 10-14 ATS vs. clubs with winning records, while Utah is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revene a same season loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Utah Jazz.

The set-up: I think the No. 8 Ohio Bobcats are going to have their hands full here vs. the No. 9 CMU Chippewas this evening. CMU plays with revenge after a 77-69 road defeat to Ohio in mid February. The Chips won't be lacking for motivation here. They opened the season 6-2 and then lost nine straight, before then finally posting an 85-68 win over WMU in its finale. CMU has the firepower to match anyone in the conference, as it is in fact the highest scoring team by averaging 78.7 PPG. The Bobcats started 2-7 and then won six of their final nine in conference play. Overall though the Bobcats average only 71.1 PPG this year. 

The pick: Yes the Chips have struggled defensively, but they closed out the regular season on a high-note and I like them to carry that momentum over here. Outright victory is possible, but in the end let's grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan.

The set-up: This is the final day of the Big Ten regular season and I think the home side will find a way to get the job done on Seniors Night. The Terps will be especially motivated here as well after dropping three of their last four. Overall the Wolverines average 75.2 PPG, while allowing 67.8. The Wolverines though are a sub-par 4-6 as the away team this season. Maryland averages 71.4 PPG and it allows 64.3. The Terps though are 15-1 at home this year. 

The pick: Regardless of today's result, both teams will be in The Tournament. It's been a big sucess for Michigan and first year head coach Juwan Howard, but I think the home side continues its brilliant play on its own floor. I expect the No. 1 team in the conference to shake off some recent scuffling play with a signature victory on Sunday afternoon. Lay the points.

10* BLOCKBUSTER on Maryland.

The set-up: Portland comes in off another disappointing loss in Phoenix just last night and I think it'll predictably struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back. Neither team has thrown in the towel yet on the playoffs, but this is a spot that definitely benefits the Kings. Sacramento has a formidable backcourt in Buddy Hield and D'Aaron Fox, who counter Portland's Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. 

The pick: Note as well that Sacramento is 20-12 ATS on the road this year and 20-13 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss where an opponent scored 100 points or more, while Portland is just 12-17 ATS at home this season and only 14-15 ATS as a favorite. I'm grabbing the points. 

10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Kings.

The set-up: This is the final game of the regular season for each team. I think this one means a lot more to the Seniors on Xavier as the Musketeers look to avenge a 66-61 road loss to the Butler Bulldogs in February. As primarily a "situational handicapper," this is exactly the type of "situation" and "motivation" I look for when breaking down a contest. Overall Butler averages 68.4 PPG and it allows 61.8. But not only is Xavier hungry to avenge the loss to Butler on Senior night, but it's still in a fight for one of the final spots in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Most recently the Musketeers fell 80-74 to Providence, making this a "must win" game for all intents and purposes. Overall Xavier averages 70.8 PPG and it allows 67.3. 

The pick: Xavier is 16-4 in its last 20 at home and 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games as well. I think Xavier pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier. 

The set-up: It's senior night for Georgetown. The Hoyas enter having lost five straight and with nothing to lose, I think the home side does in fact play with pride as it tries to pull off the big upset on national TV. Overall the Wildcats average 73.3 PPG and htey allow 66.3, while the Hoyas average 75.3 PPG and allow 74. 

The pick: Note as well that Villanova is just 3-7 ATS this year after plyaing three straight conference contests, while Georgetown is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive losses. Look for this one to come down to the wire and grab as many points as you can.

8* PLAY-BOOK on Georgetown.

The set-up: I like the Thunder to finally get back on track here in this favorable situation. After losses to the Bucks and Clippers, OKC bounced back with a win over Detroit last time out. New York won two in a row, but then it returned to form with a listless loss to the Jazz at home last time out. OKC averages 110.6 PPG and New York allows 112.0, while the Knicks average just 105.4 PPG, while the Thunder allow 108.5. 

The pick: Note as well that OKC is 21-8 ATS on the road this year and 4-1 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more in five straight games, while New York is just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 after playing three straight at home. I think the Knicks "go through the motions" here in this non-conference matchup, while I look for the visitors to take full advantage of another favorable matchup. Lay the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The set-up: This is the final game of the regular season for each. I'm basing this play most only the "revenge angle," as Georgia Tech posted the 68-59 home victory in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. The Yellow Jackets won't be participating in any tournaments this year because of a ban, so this is a meaningless game to them. Overall Georgia Tech averages 68.7 PPG and it allows 66.6. The Tigers average 66.9 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by allowing only 63.9. 

The pick: Not only does Clemson play with revenge on Seniors Night, but note that Georgia Tech is 0-14 on the road in its last 14 in this series (the Tigers have won those games by an average of 10.1 points). Georgia Tech has lost four of its last five on the road and I expect the home side to take full advantage.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on Clemson.

The set-up: The Beavers upset the Cardinal by five on the road earlier in the season and I believe they'll find a way to do it again on their own floor tonight. The home side will be looking to play spoiler here on Seniors Night, as Stanford comes in having won four straight and on the verge of punching its ticket to The Big Dance. The Beavers are desperate to stop a four-game slide of their own and while they'll likely need to win the Conference tournament now to get an invite, there's still plenty to play for here for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Stanford is already 0-2 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, while Oregon State is a sharp 9-5 ATS at home this season. I'm laying the points on the hungrier home side on Seniors night.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Oregon State.

The set-up: The Pacers beat the Bucks in their final game before the All Star break. Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that contest though and I think he's going to come out and play with a chip on his shoulder this evening. Both teams have won four of their last five, but the Bucks come in off a loss in Miami, one night after winning in Charlotte. Milwaukee averages 119.1 PPG and it allows 106.8, while Indiana averages 109.4 PPG and it allows 107.2. 

The pick: Milwaukee is almost always a big favorite, but I think it's going to easily cover this larger spread tonight, as note that it's 5-0 ATS in its last five at home and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after a SU loss of ten or more points. The stage is set for a 20 point blowout victory here. I'm laying the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Milwaukee Bucks.

The set-up: I think 17-10 Siena is going to lay the smackdown on 11-18 Niagara. This is a revenge game for the Saints after the Purple Eageles somehow managed a SU outright, 1-point win over the Saints. Niagara has won four of its last six games, while Sienna has won seven of its last ten. 

The pick: The Purple Eagles though for the most part have been terrible defensively, allowing their opponents to hit at a 46 percent rate from the floor. The Saints on the other hand have turned up the pressure defensively of late and I look for that trend to carry over here vs. this poor Niagara offense (note that the Saints have given up an average of just 60 points in their last seven conference contests.) The Saints are also 4-1 ATS in their last five at home. I'm laying the points here and expecting a blowout of epic proportions.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Siena. 

The set-up: In this battle between 15-13 Clemson and 15-14 Virginia Tech, I think that the "home court advantage" will be significant for the Hokies tonight. VT has to be feeling confident here as well, as it already beat the Tigers on their own floor earlier in the season. Both teams have big victories on the season, but each has looked downright terrible at times as well. 

The pick: And after losing nine of its last ten, I absolutely believe that Virginia Tech is the "hungrier" team in this fight, especially considering that the Tigers enter off an improbable last-second upset over Louisville! Can anyone say letdown spot?! Each team is playing for pride for the most part here, but VT is desperate on Seniors Night. Lay the short points.

10* ACC BEST OF THE BEST on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: Both teams are "hungry" for a win after three straight losses. But Phoenix is at home and it has the motivation of "revenge" as well after falling in Toronto earlier in the year. Toronto has been dealing with injuries to several key players all year and now guard Fred VanVleet is questionable tonight as well. Kelly Oubre has been lost for the season for Phoenix, but this one sets up perfectly for the Suns tonight in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Toronto is just 2-4 ATS this year after allowing 120 points or more in its previous contest and interestingly a poor 21-23 ATS this year vs. teams which allow 106 points or more per game, while Phoenix is a solid 10-5 ATS in its last 15 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. I'm expecting an outright win here for the home side, but I'm going to grab the points in the end.

10* NON-CONF ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Phoenix Suns.

The set-up: The Bearcats will be in the NCAA Tournament, but they won't want to take the foot off the gas now with just two games left in the regualr season. USF is just 6-10 in AAC action. The only way the Bulls are going to The Dance is if they can somehow win the conference tournament, and obviously that's not going to happen. I think the Bearcats can "smell the blood in the water" and I look for them to deliver the knock out blow to the home side's hopes tonight. The Bearcats can lock up a spot in the NCAA Tournament today and I expect them to play with desperation from the opening tip, until the final horn. 

The pick: Note as well that Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as a favorite in the -1.5 to -4.5 points range. The Bearcats are deeper, more talented and are the "hungrier dog" in this fight. I'm laying the points.

10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on Cincinnati.

The set-up: I think the Jazz will lay the hammer down here in this favorable position. Utah just hammered the Wizards by double digits and I expect this deep visiting side to once again win by a sizeable margin. Cleveland for the most part has been a complete disaster and it enters with zero momentum after having lost two straight. 

The pick: The Jazz have been fantastic in this spot for bettors all year as well, going 5-1 ATS in their last six when playing with two days rest and interestinly 10-4 ATS this season after scoring 120 points or more in their previous contest, while Cleveland is just 9-12 ATS after a home loss this year and a poor 9-15 ATS vs. clubs with winning records. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are firing on all cylinders right now and I like them to combine and obliterate this home side. Lay the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Utah Jazz.

The set-up: The Lakers likely got "caught looking ahead" to this game after they lost in Memphis just last night right? Not in my opinion. The Grizzlies had lost five straight going into that one and they also played with revenge after losing to the Lakers earlier in the year. The Pelicans are in the same boat as Memphis, playing with revenge and in need of victories. New Orleans is playing its best basketball of the season right now and I believe this young core of super stars is going to risk life and limb tonight to try and pull off this minor upset, while also avenging last week's loss in LA. The Lakers are great, but this is a difficult spot in the second game of the back to back. 

The pick: Note as well that LA is interestingly just 5-6 ATS this year on all games played on a "Sunday," while New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU home win. I'm grabbing the points, but I'm expecting the outright.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New Orleans Pelicans.

The set-up: It's 18-10 Xavier at 15-13 Georgetown. I think the home side is going to find a way to get the job done here. Note that the Hoyas play with revenge after the flost by nine at Xavier earlier in the year. Xavier is projected to be a ten seed in the NCAA Tournament, but Georgetown is on the bubble and falling off quickly after three straight losses. This is essentially a "do or die" game for the Hoyas. They also play with revenge. As primarily a "situational" handicapper, I do indeed believe that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Xavier is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine conference road games as a -3.5 points favorite or pick, while Georgetown is 6-2 ATS in its last eight conference home games after three games or longer SU losing streak. I'm backing the "hungrier" dog in this fight. 

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on Georgetown.

The set-up: Back on January 21st these teams played together and Kansas won 81-60, but at the end there was a bench clearing brawl that made national head lines and each team had players suspended because of it. Kansas comes in off a big 25 point win over Oklahoma State, while K-State enters off an 85-66 loss to Baylor. But after covering the spread in six straight games, I think the visiting side will be in for a real fight here vs. this revenge-minded home side. 

The pick: K-State may have lost eight in a row, but note that it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a conference road loss as a ten points or higher underdog. I think Kansas does in some small way get caught looking past K-State today. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on Kansas State.

The set-up: Ultimately I think that Pitt comes in under the radar here after five-straight losses. NC State has issues as well, as it enters having lost two straight. Neither team is "hungrier" than the other, so we can throw overall motivation out the window here in this one. Overall the Panthers average 64.9 PPG and they allow 64.6, while NC State averages 74.5 PPG and it allows 69.6.

The pick: Note as well that Pitt is 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference road games following a five-games or longer SU losing streak, while NC State is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten home conference games as a favorite in the 7.5 to 9.5 points range. I'm grabbing the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Sacramento Kings have been playing their best ball of the season over the last three weeks, but they're coming off a tight 112-108 loss in OKC just last night and I have a hard time seeing this team mustering much of an attack here from this desperate home side. The Grizzlies will be risking life and limb here to get back into the winners circle after going 0-4 on their most recent road trip. Note that the Kings are also 2-1 so far in this season series, meaning that the "revenge factor" also comes into play. 

The pick: It's interesting to note as well that Sacramento is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven after having won six or seven of its last eight games, while Memphis is 4-1 ATS this year off a loss against a division rival. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Memphis Grizzlies.

The set-up: This is the opener of a three-game road trip for the Western Conference leading Lakers. Clearly LA is the much better team here. That said, I do indeed believe that the Lake-Show will get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent tonight to much more difficult contests on the immediate horizon. Golden State comes in under-manned, but motivated here to break a seven-game slide. Situationally for sure I think this one sets up well for the underdog home side. 

The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are a poor 10-12 ATS this year as a road favorite, while Golden State is a perfect 2-0 ATS this year as a home dog of 12.5 points or more. With the visiting side likely sitting out some players tonight and considering all of the other above situational and trend based factors, I will in the end recommend to grab as many points as you can.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Golden State Warriors. 

The set-up: VCU is 7-7 in conference play after an 80-62 loss in St. Louis last time out. A date vs. 6-8 UMass is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though in my opinion. UMass looks poised for a letdown here ultimately in my opinion after two straight wins, including a 57-49 victory over Fordham. Overall VCU averages 71.3 PPG and it allows 65, while the Minutemen average 68.7 PPG and they allow 71.6. 

The pick: VCU is the "hungrier" team here for sure after four straight losses. The Rams though are a money-making 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a four-games or longer conference losing streak and I expect this strong trend to continue here. Lay the points.

8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on VCU.

The set-up: Villanove will be playing in the tournament, but St. John's is desperate for a few more wins. An outright upset here would solidify its spot and while I'm not actually calling for the outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Red Storm play with revenge here after losing by 20 to the Wildcats at home earlier in the season. Clearly Villanova is the better team, but after four straight wins I beleive it'll struggle to maintain focus today. 

The pick: Note as well that St. John's is 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference road games in trying to revenge a same season home loss of 20 points or more, while Villanova is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after a three-games or longer SU/ATS unbeaten streak. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on St. John's.

The set-up: Detroit's patchwork line-up is coming off another disheartening loss on the road in Portland last time out and I think this team will now struggle in the thin air of this difficult road venue. Denver is staying focussed as well right now, as evidenced by its double digit win over the Wolves (another team that won't be in the playoffs) in its latest action. 

The pick: Denver is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss, while Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest. The situation AND the numbers/trends all point to a home side blowout in this one. Lay the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK the Denver Nuggets.

The set-up: Kent State comes in hungry after its 104-98 double OT loss to Buffalo last time out. Buffalo now moves two games ahead of the Flashes and with just four games remaining, it's now or never for Kent State. A date vs. the last place Redhawks is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as well. Kent State also plays with revenge here after inexplicably falling to Miami Ohio 77-74 in the reverse fixture. 

The pick: Kent State is also 4-1 ATS in its last five after back-to-back SU losses and as a home favorite in the -9.5 to -11.5 points range, while Miami Ohio is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on the road. If not now, when for the Flashes?! I'm expecting a victory of the "rocking chair" variety here. Lay the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Kent State.

The set-up: Kansas is better than Oklahoma State in every conceivable way, but the Jayhawks look primed for a classic "letdown" here in my estimation after their big road win over then No. 1 Baylor last time out. Oklahoma State comes in with nothing to lose and the Cowboys are also confident, as they enter off an 83-66 win over Oklahoma. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the visiting side. 

The pick: Note though that Oklahoma State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while KU is already 0-4 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 12.5 to 15 points range. Grab the points, expect a competitive battle until the end.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State.

The set-up: The Rockets are the better team. They have better players and their offense is better. Houston's defense isn't that much better than the Knicks on most nights though. Off three straight wins and with conference rival Memphis coming to town, followed by a tough game at Boston, this one definitely sets up as a bit of a "trap" for the Rockets as well. New York has had two nights off and I believe this young team takes advantage of his complacent home side.

The pick: Outright upset? I'm stopping short in call for a straight up win for the Knicks, but note that they're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a home loss. Also note that Houston is just 5-11 ATS already this season after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Knicks.

The set-up: Indiana lost four straight before a win over the Bucks in their final outing before the All Star break. It then came out and posted a win and cover in New York to open the second half. The Pacers will have their work cut out for them here as well if they hope to win SU on the road and while they may not occur, I do think that the visitors will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Toronto hasn't had many lapses this year, but with the Bucks coming to town on Tuesday night, the possibility of a "look ahead" is definitely in the cards for the home side as well. 

The pick: Indiana plays with revenge today and note that it's 6-2 ATS in its last eight when playing with double revenge after two straight losses vs. an opponent. Toronto on the other hand is already an extremely poor 3-8 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less. I'm banking on a battle until the final shot. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers.

The set-up: Boise State is 18-10 overall and 10-6 in conference polay, but 17-11 New Mexico (6-9) isn't going to simply roll over here. New Mexico comes in desperate after three straight losses (all to stiff competition: SDSU, UNLV and Nevada). Overall New Mexico averages 78.5 PPG, while allowing 76.6. Boise State averages 77 PPG and it allows 69.4. 

The pick: New Mexico is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games after three or more SU conference losses, while Boise State is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the -8.5 to -11.5 points range. This spread is just too large considering all of these factors listed above.

10* DESTRUCTION on New Mexico.

The set-up: Cal is jsut 11-15, while Washington is only 12-15. The Huskies though play with revenge here after falling 61-58 in OT at Cal earlier in the year. The Golden Bears broke a four-game slide with their first road win of the year last time out in beating Washignton State, but I think a predictable letdown is inevitable here vs. this revenge minded home side. These team's offensive and defensive numbers are similar (poor), but note that the Huskies are still 9-6 at home this year and they're two Pac 12 victories have also been on their own floor.

The pick: Finally note that Cal is just 1-5 ATS this year as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. poor offensive teams which average 64 points or less per contest. I think the hungrier home side keeps the foot on the gas until the final horn. Lay the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Washington.

The set-up: I like the Clippers to cover the big number at home today. The Kings opened up the second half of the season with a big 129-125 home win over Memphis, but I think that an immediate return to mediocrity is in store here. The Clippers return home off a 141-133 road loss in Boston and I think a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. I look for the veterans on the Clippers to go at the young Kings backcourt of Buddy Hield and D'Aron Fox. 

The pick: The Clippers recently added Macus Morris and Reggie Jackson to the line-up. LA has dominated this series at home as well, going 5-1 the last six at home vs. Sacarmento. The Kings on the other hand are a poor 7-8 ATS already this season after allowing 120 points or more in their previous outing. Look for Sac to take a step back and for the Clippers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the LA Clippers.

The set-up: The defending National Champs are going to be in a dog-fight today in my opinion. And in a contest which I believe is decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. UVA has won three straight after an 80-73 loss to Louisville earlier in the month. UVA's defense remains elite this year, holding opponents to just 52.6 PPG, but it's offense has been putrid in averaging only 57.6 PPG. 

The pick: Pittsburgh will need a miracle to make it into the NCAA tournament, but the Panthers are still gunning for a spot in the NIT. Off three straight losses, I think Pittsburgh hangs tough here at home. Overall Pitt averages 65.9 PPG and it allows 64.6. Additionally note that UVA is just 6-14 ATS as the favorite this year, while Pittsburgh is a stellar 5-1 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per game. Grab the points.

10* UNDERDOG BLOOD-BATH on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: This is a big game for these middle of the pack A 10 teams. VCU is 17-9 and Saint Louis is 18-8. VCU is on the bubble now after four straight losses, meaning that every contest from here on out is essentially 'do or die.' VCU though comes in off two tight losses vs. two really good teams in Richmond and Dayton, holding the high-flying Flyers to just 66 points. The Billikens come in with zero momentum as well after losing three of their last four. Saint Louis recently suffered a big blow when guard Gibson Jimerson was lost to a foot injury. 

The pick: VCU is also an awesome 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as a road favorite or pick (including 3-1 ATS this year), while Saint Louis is already a poor 2-5 ATS in its last seven after playing a road game. The Rams' recent losing streak can be attributed to the level of their competition of late. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on VCU.

The set-up: The Pacers fell victim to a red hot Knicks team a week before the All Star break. Indiana earned a victory in its final game of the first half over Milwaukee (sans Giannis) and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here after a poor scuffling stretch leading up. The Knicks' run came to an end shortly after the Pacers victory with back-to-back losses going into the All Star game to the lowly Hawks and Wizards. 

The pick: Both teams have struggled with consistency this season, but Indiana clearly has much better depth. Also note that it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine on the road. New York on the other hand is just 5-15 in its last 20 at home. I look for Indiana's experienced backcourt of Brogdon and Oladipo to be the difference here. Lay the points.

10* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers.

The set-up: Both teams still have an outside shot at The Tournament. Belmont comes in off a 101-84 win over Jacksonville State, but after six straight wins, I believe the visiting side does indeed get caught "looking past" its opponent in some small way today. Morehead State is clearly the "hungrier" team after three straight losses. Morehead State also plays with revenge here. 

The pick: Note as well that Belmont is already a poor 4-7 ATS this year as a road favorite or pick and just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two straight covers as a double digit favorite, while Morehead State is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival. I'm banking on the hungier, revenge-minded home side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with teh ample points it's been afforded in this one.

10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST is Morehead State.

The set-up: After four straight victories, I think that Richmond gets caught looking past lowly George Mason, which is just 3-9 in league play so far. George Mason plays with revenge here though after the Spiders won 97-87 on the road in mid January. The Patriots average 68.2 PPG and the Spiders average 75.1. The Patriots still have an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament, but it'll depend on how they close out the rest of the way and what they do in the Conference tournament. One game at a time obviously.

The pick: George Mason is also a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the +12.5 to +15 points range, while Richmond is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two straight wins by ten points or more. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.

8* MID-MAJOR MAULING on George Mason.

The set-up: The Citadel won't be lacking for motivation here, as it's just 6-19 overall and winless in conference play. I had a pick on St. Joe's last night and it also was winless in conference action, until its monster come from behind upset outright victory. While I don't expect anything as dramatic as that in this one, everything does point to the home side keeping it competitive throughout in my opinion. Chattanooga is 7-7 in the Southern Conference. Note that Chattanooga averages 72 PPG, while the Citadel averages 76. 

The pick: Additionally I'll point out that Chattanooga is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after successfully covering the spread in three or more straight outings, while The Citadel is 6-2 ATS this season revenging a loss vs. an opponent which scored 85 points or more. Grab the points, expecting a close battle.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on The Citadel.

The set-up: Vandy is just 3-7 the last ten in this series, but I think the "under the radar" visiting side does enough to get the comfortable cover once it's all said and done. Saban Lee averages 21 PPG for the Commodores, who average a very respectable 69 points per game on the road. Vanderbilt's poor defense catches a break here as well facing the slower paced Vols, who average only 66 PPG at home this season. 

The pick: Note as well that Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS In its last ten as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Tennessee is only 5-8 ATS this year as a home favorite. I think Vanderbilt's offense mathches pace and while I'm not going to call for the outright upset, everything points to a competitive battle. Grab the points.

9* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on Vanderbilt.

The set-up: Davidson is 13-11 overall, 7-5 in conference play and just 4-6 as the road team. It looks poised for a letdown here in my estimation after its big 93-64 win over St. Bonaventure. I think the Wildcats get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. The Hawks are 4-21 overall, 0-12 in league play and 2-9 at home. Most recently St. Joe's fell to Rhode Island 73-55. 

The pick: Davidson is just 4-7 ATS on the road this year and it's 0-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. St. Joe's on the other hand is already 4-1 ATS this year after three straight losses by ten points or more. I admit the Hawks are horrible, but Davidson has been poor as well. This sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the visitors, while the home side is still desperate to post its first conference victory of the year. I'm grabbing the points.

8* ATS BLOOD-BATH on St. Joseph's.

The set-up: Both teams should be in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini though come in as the "hungrier" team though after a loss to Rutgers last time out. Illinois has a balanced attack and it's ranked as the 32nd best tam according to KenPom. Penn State beat Northwestern 77-61 last time out, its eighth straight win. KenPom has the Nittany Lions ranked as the 11th best team in the Nation, but I think the home side will have its hands full with this determined visiting side.

The pick: Illinois is also already 2-0 ATS this year off an embarrassing road loss in which it scored less than 60 points in and 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. good offensvie teams which score 77 plus points per contest. I'm banking on the hungry visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

10* 'COACH'S CORNER' on Illinois.

The set-up: Kansas has won ten straight and it sits just one game back of 12-0 Baylor for the lead. The Jayhawks are at the Bears in their next game and I think that sets this one up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side. Note that Iowa State also plays with revenge after losing 79-53 at home to the Jayhawks earlier in the year. The Cyclones additionally come in "under the radar" after winning two of their last three. That includes their best offensive performance of the year in their 81-52 win over Texas. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up well for the Cyclones. Kansas can't afford to lose any ground on Baylor, but I believe that the conditions are all in place to classify this as a "trap" for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Iowa State is 3-1 ATS in its last four in revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, while Kansas is already 0-4 ATS this year as a home favorite in the 12.5 to 18 points range. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State. 

The set-up: For these types of events/wagers, I always try to "find an angle" to use. Team LeBron won this event last year, so Team Giannis already plays with the "revenge" factor. But overall I think Team Giannis holds a lot of value because of the way that Antetokounmpo's draft has widely been viewed. While on paper Team LeBron could look better, I believe the way that Team Giannis has been viewed by the media as being the "lesser" team will only add fuel to the fire to these All Stars.

The pick: And that's the case. This game is being played by the best of the best. And in these types of games, everyone is looking for some sort of motivation to use. And in this case, as mentioned above, Team Giannis has two big motivational factors working in its favor today. While I obviously would not be shocked by the outright upset, in the end I'm going to grab the points.

10* BLOWOUT SPECTACULAR on Team Giannis.

The set-up: Villanova won't want to take the foot off the gas now in this dangerous non-conference road matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Wildcats escaped most recently with a slim 72-71 win over Marquette on Wednesday, while the Owls nudged past Tulane 72-68. Villanova's five starters all average in double figures; overall the Wildcats average 73.5 PPG. Temple has just two players averaging in double figures and the Owls average 69.3 PPG. 

The pick: Temple's been great at home of late, but now the level of competition gets raised dramatically. Villanova's depth is going to be the difference for me today, as I expect the Wildcats to come in focussed on the task at hand after their most recent "close call." Lay the points.

10* SUPER-DESTRUCTION on Villanova.

The set-up: Both teams will be equally as "hungry" here. Both teams come in off losses. Syracuse is in a two-way tie for fifth place and so far its 4-2 on the road this year. Overall the Orange average 74 PPG and they allow 68.3. The Seminoles are coming in off a loss to Duke. FSU averages 75.1 PPG and it allows 65.1. 

The pick: I'll point out though that Syracuse is 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference road games as an underdog in the 8.5 to 11.5 points range, while FSU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games following a SU loss and favored by 8.5 points or more. I like the Orange to fight until the end. Grab the points.

10* VERY EARLY NATIONAL TV BLOCKBUSTER on Syracuse.

The set-up: This is a big game, as both teams are tied for eighth spot with a 5-7 record in the MAAC. The Stags play with revenge today after the Red Foxes picked up the 70-58 road win, snapping an 11 game losing streak for Marist at the time. Both teams season averages are comparable. They're bad. Marist's recent/current form is better, but I think that swings the value the other way here. Fairfield is the hungrier/more desperate team and it's also playing with revenge. 

The pick: And note that Fairfield is 10-5 ATS as an underdog this year and 4-0 ATS this season revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Marist is 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite and just 2-3 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog. Clearly the outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Fairfield.

The set-up: The Thunder won nine of ten and got complacet and then lost two in a row at home to the Celtics and Thunder. OKC won't be taking the Pelicans for granted here and I believe its depth and experience will prove to be too much for the younger home side. The Pelicans do indeed look ripe for a letdown here in my estimation after three straight victories. OKC has won the first three of this four game season series and I expect them to find a way to get the job done here as well. The Thunder average 110.8 PPG, while the Pelicans allow 117.2. New Orleans averages 115.7 PPG, but OKC allows only 107.9. 

The pick: OKC has lost two in a row at home, but it's won seven straight on the road. I'm throwing the revenge factor out the window here, as I believe the Thunder are just as motivated to try and complete the season sweep, while also looking to get back on track after back-to-back losses. The Pelicans on the other look primed for a letdown, as I've mentioned above already. Grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The set-up: Memphis has the better overall record at 17-6, but it's 6-4 ACC record sits behind 15-8 Cincinnati's record of 8-3. The Bearcats fell 60-49 at Memphis earlier in the year, making "revenge" a significant factor working in their favor tonight. Memphis averages 73.7 PPG and it allows 64.1, while Cincinnati averages 72.5 PPG and it allows 65.7. 

The pick: Note though that Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in its last six at home, while Memphis is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following three or more straight home games. The Bearcats have gotten better as the season has worn on. I like the home side to play with aggression tonight on its own floor and to avenge the earlier loss. Lay the points.

9* BLOWOUT DESTRUCTION on Cincinnati.

The set-up: Wichita State opened the season 15-1, but it's since lost five of its last seven. It beat UCF 89-79 at home earlier in the year, but it didn't cover the 11.5 point spread. The UCF Knights have won two in a row, but I think they'll have their hands full here vs. the No. 45 Shockers who average 72.3 PPG, and allow 64.5. UCF averages 68.3 PPG and it allows 66.7. 

The pick: Note though that the Shockers are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three after three or more consecutive losses, while UCF is only 3-7 ATS at home this year and just 1-2 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This is a big game for the Shockers and I look for them to finally get back on track in this favorable matchup. Lay the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Wichita State.

The set-up: The Musketeers won their third game in a row by beating Providence 64-58, but I think they'll have their hands full with this hungry home side this evening. Butler won't be lacking for motivation after a poor 76-57 loss to Marquette in its latest action. Overall Xavier is averaging 71.3 PPG, while the Bulldogs average 68.9. The Bulldogs though are ranked 48th in field goal percentage in the nation. 

The pick: The Musketeers are also only 3-4 ATS on the road, including 0-2 ATS as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Butler is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite or pick. I think the "hungrier" home side rises up to the challenge and gets back no track with a conviving win. Lay the points.

10* BLOCKBUSTER on Butler.

The set-up: Notre Dame comes in off a four-point road win over Clemson to improve to 15-8 on the year and 6-6 in league play, but I believe it'll take a step back here vs. the defensive-minded Cavaliers. Virginia comes in highly motivated after a seven point loss to Louisville in its last action, falling to 15-7 overall and 7-5 in conference play. Notre Dame averages 76.2 PPG and it allows 68.4. UVA averages 56.8 PPG and it allows only 51.7. 

The pick: As good as the Irish have looked of late, note that they're still just 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year and just 1-3 ATS after allowing 60 points or less. And note that UVA has performed well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road loss. I believe the hungrier home side's suffocating defensive play is the difference maker in this one. Lay the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Virginia. 

The set-up: Northwestern comes in focussed after having a week off to absorb its one point loss to Purdue last weekend. This is the first time these teams have played this year, but last season they split, each winning on the road. Note that the Wildcats are 4-1 all time at the RAC. This is the start of four games in ten days for Northwestern, so getting out on the "right foot" of a journey like this always paramount and with a week off to prepare, I expect NW to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Rutgers returns home after a two-game trip. The Scarlet Knights are 15-0 at home so far this year. Note though that NU has suffered four conference defeats this season by four points or less. 

The pick: Note as well that NW is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games when playing with six or more days rest and as a double-digit underdog, while Rutgers is only 4-5 ATS in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -10 to -13.5 points range. I think the home side comes in complacent and I believe the visitors come in hungry. Probably no outright, but it'll be close. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Northwestern.