This is a 10* on PORTLAND

After seeing them lose last night at Golden State, it’s pretty obvious that this Raptors team is a “far cry” from the one that won the NBA Championship just two years ago. It’s not just that they lost to the team they beat in the 2019 Finals, it’s a 2-7 start to this season. Kawhi Leonard is obviously long gone and this just isn’t the same team that lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Probably the only positive coming out of last night is that Toronto snapped a streak of four straight games allowing 120 points or more. They did a good job keeping Steph Curry in check. But they still lost and were down 15 going into the fourth quarter! That’s a bad sign as they get ready to face a Portland team that was off Sunday. The Blazers have won two in a row by an average of 22 points/game. They’ve scored 122 or more in four of the last five games. The fact that the Raptors aren’t able to play any games in Toronto is going to continue to catch up with them and this team is 0-4 ATS so far coming off a straight up loss as a favorite (they were -2.5 at GSW). Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on NEW YORK

The Knicks, even though they came up short Friday in OKC, have been a pleasant surprise in the early going with a 5-4 won-loss record. Denver has been a major disappointment as they are just 4-5 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. They are off a win yesterday, but it came at the expense of a severely depleted Philadelphia team that had only seven available players. All four Nuggets wins this year have come with rest. So this second night of a back to back - where they are laying points on the road - does not seem like a good situation to back them. The only other time they played without rest was when they lost by 10 at Sacramento. As underdogs, the Knicks have covered five of six and all five covers were also SU wins. They did lead the Thunder early - by as many as 11 - on Friday. Denver has lost four games that it has been favored in so far. We think its pretty clear the Nuggets aren’t as good as they were a season ago while the Knicks seem to be much improved. Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

Brooklyn’s first game without Kevin Durant (in quarantine) could not possibly have gone any better as they thwarted the Jazz 130-96 as a 5-point home underdog. Oddsmakers have apparently NOT learned their lesson as they’ve once again installed the Nets as home dogs tonight vs. Philadelphia. Granted, the Sixers have the best overall record in the Eastern Conference at 7-1. However, look at who they’ve played: Washington twice, New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte twice. All are struggling teams that we don’t think are going to finish anywhere near the top of the standings. This is the second game of a back to back for Philly as they won a wild 141-136 game against the Wizards last night.  We’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly, so it’s a mistake to have Brooklyn as an underdog at home even with Durant out, given the Sixers are playing without rest. Kyrie Irving made his first nine shots against Utah and finished with 29 points. He may not be quite as prolific tonight, but we don’t need him to be. All we are looking for is a win, it doesn’t need to be by 34 points like we saw Monday. There is no way the shots are going to fall for Philly tonight the way they did Wednesday. Play on BROOKLYN

This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks beat the Pistons by 10 points on Monday and should win by a much larger margin tonight. While it’s going to be tough for the Bucks to shoot the ball better than they did Monday, they can help themselves by defending better. Detroit shouldn’t score 115 again as they usually don’t do well in games that have a total of 220 points or more. They are just 19-36 ATS in such games. They are also only 11-24 ATS L35 division games. Milwaukee is 27-8 ATS its last 35 division games. Then you’ve got the head to head. The Bucks are 12-0 SU the L12 meetings, going 10-1-1 ATS. The Pistons have given up an average of 117.6 points/game this season and that’s obviously not going to cut it against the league’s top scoring team. The Bucks can name the score here. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* on ATLANTA

Before the season started, we identified Atlanta as a possible “sleeper” team in the Eastern Conference. Sure enough, the Hawks got off to a 4-1 start and were “flying high.” But they came crashing down with a surprise home loss to Cleveland Saturday night and that should have them ready to rock when they host another bad team, the Knicks, Monday night. Prior to coming up short vs. the Cavs, the Hawks only loss was by four points at Brooklyn. Their only non-cover came in an eight-point win against the Pistons. They were 11-pt chalk vs. Detroit and that’s what we think the line should be here, so it’s a real bargain on the home side. The Knicks have pulled some shocking upsets already, the latest was them winning as a 10-point dog at Indiana on Saturday. But when they lose, they lose big. All three losses this season have come by double digits. Something to keep in mind with Atlanta is they had a 15-point lead against Cleveland before a sloppy second half led to them giving the game away. This is the Knicks’ 4th straight game on the road and we don’t see them having much left in the tank. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 10* on TORONTO 

Toronto is 0-3, both straight up and against the spread, but here comes the Knicks to rectify that problem. Now the Knicks have won two straight including a shocking upset of Milwaukee. So the Raptors need to take this game seriously. Given their record, you have to think they will. They have beaten the Knicks eight consecutive times. New York is going to be really short-handed for this one due to multiple injuries. A near skeleton crew playing on the road on New Year’s Eve probably isn’t going to bring out the best effort from them. The 130 points they scored against Milwaukee was a fairly “head-scratching” performance while the other win was “only” against lowly Cleveland, who shot 36.4% from the field. The Knicks lost by double digits each of the first two games. We know the Raptors aren’t able to play in Toronto yet (home games are in Tampa, FL for now), but this is one they badly need as they seek to avoid their worst start to a season in a decade and a half. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON

A lot of drama in Houston (COVID, James Harden) has resulted in an 0-2 start, but the Rockets should finally blast off tonight against Sacramento. The Kings are beating the odds thus far with a 3-1 start that has seen them face both the Nuggets and Suns twice. They were underdogs in all four of those games, just as they are here. But three of those four games were at home. Two of the wins came by three points or less. Seems like the Kings are due for a “reality check” on New Year’s Eve as Houston has gone 6-1, both straight up and against the spread, vs. them the previous two seasons. John Wall is set to make his Rockets debut here as he and two other players return from quarantine. The others are Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. The Rockets were only able to travel with nine players for their two road games because of COVID protocols. This looks to be an obvious spot where they get things going in a positive direction. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on LA LAKERS

We’ve seen how the Lakers perform off a loss before and it was a 138-115 thrashing of Dallas on Christmas night. They are off a loss again tonight as they fell 115-107 to Portland on Monday. Their first road game of the year is tonight in San Antonio where they’ll face a Spurs team that is 3-0 ATS. This is the first of two straight games here in the Alamo as the teams play again on New Year’s Day. Though it was the second night of a back to back, it was a little surprising to see the Lakers falter down the stretch against Portland. It was the first time in more than a year that they lost a game in which they led going into the 4th quarter (59-0 previously). But they didn’t get much production off the bench (only 23 points) and thus couldn’t finish the job. However, we like them to finish here as the Spurs only scored 95 points against New Orleans on Sunday, their first loss of the 2020-21 season. We don’t expect much from San Antonio this year and they lost all three times they played the Lakers in 2019-2020. All three games were decided by at least seven points and two were at home. Play on LA LAKERS

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs where Miami “stunned” Milwaukee with a 4-1 series win. The Bucks are just 1-2 to start the year with road losses to the Celtics and Knicks. Their only win, Christmas Day vs. Golden State was at home. Losing to the Knicks is embarrassing enough but giving up 130 points was really bad. Considering that loss and the revenge angle, we are anticipating “everyone” to be on the Bucks here, but the spread is too high. Miami hasn’t played since Christmas when they easily handled the Pelicans. That 111-98 win was reminiscent of the team we saw go all the way to the NBA Finals back in October. Probably no Jimmy Butler tonight, but that’s okay as the Heat can still turn to a deep roster that’s led by Bam Adebayo’s team-high 21.0 PPG scoring average. The team is also 10-3 SU/9-3 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. The Bucks aren’t getting much offensive production beyond their top two scorers (Giannis, Middleton) and the defense looked very shaky in both defeats. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

This seems like a lot of points for Houston to be getting? With the James Harden saga and COVID cancelling their first game, the Rockets are seemingly being “written off.” But they did take Portland to overtime in their only game played so far (lost 128-126) and easily covered a spread similar to this one. Harden scored 44 points and didn’t seem the least bit bothered by the drama. Denver is 0-2 right now with home losses to Sacramento and the Clippers. The Sacramento game went to overtime, but they were straight out blitzed X-mas night by LA. The expectation here will be that Denver “can’t” lose a third straight game at home. But that line of thinking has led to an inflated number, which we will gladly grab. The Rockets are 8-3 ATS the L11 meetings with the Nuggets and 25-19 ATS their L44 as underdogs. They flat out seem “mis-priced” in the early going this year. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Phoenix will look to avenge last night’s 106-103 loss in Sacramento, which was their first ATS loss in 10 games going back to last season’s bubble. They’d also won all nine games straight up. Sacramento is 2-0 with those wins coming by two and three points. They opened with an overtime win against Denver, but just as easily could be 0-2 right now. We can’t really see 3-0 happening for the Kings. So we’ll lay a short number with the Suns in this immediate revenge spot. Huge edges in rebounding and free throw attempts were key for the Kings last night. It’s atypical they enjoy such large advantages in those areas. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is an 8* on DALLAS

Both the Mavs and Lakers are coming off season-opening losses. The Lakers fell 116-109 to the Clippers while the Mavs lost 106-102 in Phoenix. Though Luka Doncic was able to score 32 points against the Suns, he was 0 for 6 on three-point attempts. His teammates’ shooting was no better (25 of 59) as the Mavs finished the game at just 42.4% overall and a miserable 9 of 24 from behind the arc. We expect the shooting will improve Christmas night. The turnaround between seasons is short and unprecedented for every team, but especially the Lakers, who were in the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Being a more veteran team, they could start slow. They fell behind the Clippers by 20 early on opening night and had 19 turnovers. The offseason acquisitions make them stronger (than last year) in the long run, but those pieces are going to need time to “gel.” Not only do we see Dallas covering on Christmas night, they may very well end up winning this one outright. Play on DALLAS

AAA

This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

After making five straight Finals appearances and winning three NBA Championships, the Warriors completely fell apart last season. Injuries were the reason. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green remain “on the mend,” but Steph Curry is back and set to lead the team back to relevance in 2020-21. Opening night certainly didn’t go the way Golden State had hoped as they got blown out in Brooklyn, 125-99. But you can say the same for Milwaukee, who lost their first game, 122-121 in Boston. Even though the Bucks nearly won, they too found themselves down double digits much of the second half. That they shot 51% on the road and lost is a “tough pill” to swallow. With “everyone” expecting Milwaukee to bounce back on Christmas Day, we’ll be siding with the Warriors as this line is far too large for a game taking place this early in the season. It’s only going to get higher due to Golden State’s first game performance. But Curry, who had 20 points vs. the Nets, is going to shoot better than 2 for 10 from 3-point land here (that’s what he shot in Brooklyn). The Warriors’ 3-point defense will also improve after they allowed the Nets to hit 43% from distance. Milwaukee has several new pieces and it’s going to take time to gel after the short offseason. We don’t see them being as dominant right away, compared to the past two seasons. We really believe in the Warriors here. Play on GOLDEN STATE

AAA

This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee has been the best team in the Eastern Conference each of the last two seasons, but has yet to make their way to an NBA Finals. Boston has made it to the Conference Finals in three of the last four seasons. So both of these teams have high hopes for 2020-21. With Giannis Antetokounmpo now signed, the Bucks can focus on the court and do what they do best. This has been the best offensive team in the league, at least in the regular season, two years running. They added Jrue Holiday. The Celtics have more question marks entering the season. Gordon Hayward is now in Charlotte. Kemba Walker is out because of a knee injury. So we think it could be a slow start in Beantown. The Bucks have beaten the Celtics in 8 of the previous 10 matchups and are 5-2 ATS the L7. They handle their business in the opener. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 7* on MIAMI

The Heat will open this season where last season ended, that being Orlando, which of course hosted the NBA bubble. It won’t be the same arena where they lost to the Lakers in the NBA Finals in October, but the visit should still evoke memories. We like Miami to win tonight, though the money line appears to be the better option than the spread (which is rising). The Heat should again be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and while they’ll be restricting Jimmy Butler’s minutes (he averaged 43 MPG in the Finals) early on, there are no such limitations for Miami’s young core. Avery Bradley was an offseason acquisition, coming over from the Lakers. Orlando did not make any real changes in the offseason after finishing 8th in the East. They are probably going to battle with the likes of division rivals Atlanta and Washington for spots in the new ‘play-in’ scenarios this year. Though Miami wasn’t favored all that often during its playoff run, they have covered five straight as chalk. They’ve also beaten the Magic three straight times. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is an 8* on LAKERS 

Though we’re projecting both LA teams to fare quite well this season, the clear call on Opening Night is to take the Lakers. The consensus view is that the Lakers are now a better team than when they won the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Looking at the roster, it’s difficult to argue with that assessment. Valuable additions such as Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol make the Lakers a deeper team. It’s easy to “fall in love” with what Talen Horton-Tucker did in the preseason. Even though they just won the NBA Championship, LeBron and company will want to remind the league that they are the team to beat. The Clippers are a bit of a mess right now with the Kawhi Leonard situation seeming like a real distraction. They have a new coach in Ty Lue. It’s not like Doc Rivers was a bad coach, so problems with this team may run deeper than coaching. The teams split four regular season meetings last year, one of them in the bubble. The Lakers won the last two. Give me the favorite to win on Opening Night. Play on LA LAKERS 

AAA

This is a 10* on MIA

Miami isn’t going down without a fight -- that is if they go down at all! As we said prior to Game 5 - “if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch.” We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. By pulling the upset in Game 5, the Heat now have a 15-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 14-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. We said to bank on them shooting better in Game 5 than they did in Game 4 (when they finished with a 42.7 FG%) and they did, finishing at 42.9% from three-point range. (They were above 50% overall in both Games 2 and 3). Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He’s had a combined 28 points and 11 rebounds since returning. But of course it has been Jimmy Butler “carrying the load” with those great individual efforts in Games 3 (40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists) and 5 (35-12-11). At one point in Game 5, the Lakers were shooting 56.3% and still losing. Now Anthony Davis is banged up. All the pressure is on the Lakers. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami is down to their “last proverbial out.” It’s win or go home time as they trail the Lakers 3-1 in the series. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch. We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. That leaves the Heat with a 14-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 13-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He had 15 points and 7 rebounds in Game 4. Of course, Jimmy Butler had that great individual effort in Game 3 with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. Bank on the Heat shooting better than they did in Game 4 when they finished with a 42.7 FG%. (They were above 50% the previous two games). This might very well turn out to be the last game of the NBA bubble/season. But the Heat, who haven’t failed to cover in B2B games the entire playoffs, won’t go down without a fight. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

Turns out that people were writing off Miami a little earlier than they should have. As a 9-point underdog, the Heat won Game 3 outright, 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double of 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. That’s just a tremendous individual effort in the wake of the injuries to both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. Neither of those two are guaranteed to return for Game 4 (though Adebayo has said “he hopes to”). Nevertheless, even without Adebayo and Dragic, Miami starters outscored their Lakers brethren 89-51 in Game 3. The Heat have shot better than 50% overall the L2 games, so they’re pretty locked in offensively right now. As we’ve talked about before, there’s a lot of talent on hand for coach Erik Spoelstra, such as Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder. All three of those players were in double figures in Game 3. For the Lakers, beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis, there isn’t exactly a ton of talent depth. Though the Lakers have not dropped two straight in any playoff series so far, it is Miami that owns the better ATS record (13-4-1) this postseason and, while the number is down from Game 3, they are still getting too many points here. LA is just 2-8-1 ATS the L11 times they have been off an ATS loss. We never stopped believing that the Heat could compete in this series and taking the points is the way to go for Game 4! Play on MIAMI

This is a 10* on MIA

Miami got blown out in Game 1. Along the way, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler all got hurt. Butler will play in Game 2 but the other two are officially listed as doubtful. So basically everyone is going to write off the Heat. We will not. While injuries obviously do matter, this number is far off from where it was in Game 1 when a LOT of bettors were taking the points. If Miami does lose Game 2, it will be the first time they’ve lost consecutive games in the playoffs. The Lakers are 7-2-1 ATS L10 games, but several of those wins have come by single digits. This play is classic “zig zag theory” as the previous game loser was blown out and now getting more points to work with in the next game. Given all the hype that existed around Miami less than 48 hours ago, we believe it foolish to simply write them off after one bad loss. Their 2-3 zone can keep them in this one. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are a pair of 3-point specialists that can help Jimmy Butler with the offense. The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS off an ATS loss including 3-0 in the playoffs. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami failed in its first try to put away Boston, uncharacteristically blowing a double digit lead. The game swung pretty dramatically in the third quarter when the Celtics outscored the Heat 41-25. Miami’s three-point shooting for the game (19.4%) was dreadful as it’s been now for the last 13 quarters of the series (below 25%!). Expect the Heat to rediscover their touch from downtown Sunday. As we know, the Heat have not lost two in a row since the playoffs began. They’ve only been beaten in regulation twice, both times in this series, in 14 games. Off a double digit loss, they are 9-3 SU this season. While we won’t predict the Heat win straight up here, it’s very likely that they will and thus finish off the series. Take the points. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on DEN

For a third straight series, Denver finds itself down three games to one. Before this year’s playoffs, no team in history had ever come back from multiple 3-1 series deficits to win a series. Only a handful of teams had ever come back from one 3-1 series deficit. Of course, you could say Denver has the Lakers “right where they want them.” Since losing Game 1, the Nuggets have played LA tough with the two losses coming by a total of eight points (six and two). While they’re 0-3 SU in Game 4’s this postseason, they are obviously perfect in Game 5’s and 6-0 SU overall from Game 5 on. They are also 8-1 ATS when down in the series this postseason and that record could be 9-1 if you got the Nuggets at +6.5 on Thursday. Denver has shot the ball very well in this series, including right around 52% the last two games. In Game 4, the Lakers had tremendous advantages in both second chance points and free throw attempts, but those kinds of disparities are not something they should expect again. Take the points. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

With a win tonight, Miami moves on to the NBA Finals and a likely matchup with former teammate LeBron James and the Lakers. Don’t worry about the fact that the Heat are underdogs tonight. People have been underrating this team ever since the season restarted. They’ve gone 11-2 SU in the playoffs with one of those losses coming in overtime. They are also 11-2 ATS. After falling behind early in each of the first three games, Miami largely controlled Game 4 wire to wire. They did so despite shooting just 42.9% and 10 of 37 from three-point range. They’ll shoot better tonight, even as they are unlikely to get 37 points against from rookie Tyler Herro. That they continue to be the underdog is a little ridiculous and we’ll gladly take the points. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on MIA

Game 3 of this series marked the first loss in regulation for Miami since the playoffs began. While they’ve had a “nasty habit” of falling behind in games, the Heat still lead this Eastern Conference Finals 2 games to 1 over Boston. We see no way that the Heat don’t improve upon their shooting from the last game as they sank just 12 of 44 three-point attempts and finished with a 38.8 overall FG%. Despite all that, they were still within five points in the final minute. Obviously, having lost just two games since the playoffs started, the Heat have yet to drop two in a row. The last time they suffered back to back losses was right before the playoffs began, in the final two seeding games, neither of which they really put forth much effort in. The extra rest the teams got between Games 3 and 4 is interesting. Miami is 12-3 ATS the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. Boston hasn’t won two straight since opening the last round 2-0 vs. Toronto. We don’t see Miami falling behind by double digits again, so taking the points is the way to go tonight in an obvious bounce back spot. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Given how their last two series have gone, maybe the Nuggets have the Lakers “right where they want them.” No strangers to trailing in these playoffs, Denver got blown out in Game 1 of the WCF, losing 126-114. Of course, they were blown out even worse by the Clippers in Game 1 of the last round (120-97) and still came back to win that series in seven games. They are the first team in league history to win two series in the same postseason in which they trailed 3-1. Not only did Denver bounce back from a Game 1 blowout to win the Clippers series, they took Game 2 outright, 110-101. We’ll definitely grab the points here as the Nuggets are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in the series this postseason. Since falling behind Utah 3 games to 1 in the first round, they’ve covered six straight in the role. The Lakers shot very well from 3-point land in Game 1 (42.3%), which is much higher than their season average. They can’t count on that happening again. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is an 8* on DENVER

Denver has consistently been underpriced in this series, so why should we stop now? We had the Nuggets in their upsets in Games 2 & 6 as well as their ATS win in Game 3. This is the consecutive series where they’ve rallied from a 3-1 deficit. We all remember what happened against Utah in Game 7. They are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in a series this postseason. Each of the last two games have seen them stage shocking comebacks from double digit deficits. While one could take this as a sign of the Clippers’ superiority and “falling asleep at the wheel,” we see it as “blown opportunities.” Los Angeles has just one double digit win in the series; it came in Game 1 when they had an edge in rest over the Nuggets. Since rest time has been equal, the Nuggets are 4-1 ATS. They outscored the Clippers 64-35 in the second half of Game 6. A troubling sign for LA is that they’ve shot better than 42% from the floor just once in the past five games. There is a lot of pressure on the Clippers in this Game 7. Denver is playing with “house money.” Even if they can’t make history and be the first team to win consecutive series in which they were down 3 games to 1, the Nuggets will keep this one close. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

After knocking off the top two seeds in the East, Miami and Boston meet in the Conference Finals. Miami ousted top seeded Milwaukee in five games. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo hampered, that was still a really impressive effort from the Heat, who are now 8-1 SU and ATS this postseason. Boston needed seven games to eliminate Toronto, but was pretty clearly the better team in that series. Still, the extra games played is definitely a disadvantage for a thin lineup that’s still without Gordon Hayward. Bam Adebayo is the name to watch for the Heat as he led the way with 21 points and 12 rebounds in a 112-106 win when these teams faced off on August 4th. Boston defended the interior well against Toronto, particularly Daniel Theiss, but they clearly had issues against Adebayo last month. The Celtics shot just 43.5% in that game and were 10 of 33 from three-point range. Miami’s 3-point shooting has been a major weapon so far in the playoffs as they are at 38%, which is the highest percentage among the four likely conference finalists. Boston is just 13th in three-point shooting among the 16 playoff teams. Remember that the Heat have not been beaten in regulation since the playoffs began. Boston did not top 103 points in regulation in five of its last six games vs. Toronto. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver has already come back from one 3-1 series deficit (1st round vs. Utah). Can they do it again? Not sure (honestly seems doubtful), but a big difference between this and the Jazz series is that Denver is getting a lot of points on a game by game basis. Taking them here in Game 6, we don’t need a SU win to cash a winning ticket. Earlier in this series, the Nuggets did cover the spread without winning (Game 3). Game 5 saw them come back from a double digit deficit to stun the Clippers 111-105. We don’t see the Nuggets falling behind like that again. The Clippers have shot pretty poorly in three of the five games so far. When trailing in a playoff series, Denver is 8-1 ATS including 5-1 this year. Over the course of the five games, LA is only outscoring Denver by 5 PPG. Jokic, Murray and Porter all had nice performances in Game 5, which is worrisome for the Clippers. So was the play of their bench. Take the points here. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston is playing for its season Saturday night. They trail the Lakers 3-1 and were thoroughly outplayed in Game 4, losing 110-100. Really, it wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Rockets trailed by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter. In many ways, it was the polar opposite of both Games 2 and 3 when they played the Lakers tough, only to come up just shy on the scoreboard. While the Rockets faced a large early deficit in Game 2, they came back and took the lead going into the fourth quarter. Game 3 saw them have the lead at halftime. Both those games saw the Lakers shoot the lights out. In Game 4, it was a massive edge in the paint and on second-chance points for LA. On the bright side for Houston, Russell Westbrook finally “woke up” with a 25-point effort Thursday. Faced with the prospect of “win or go home,” we figure we’ll be getting the Rockets’ best effort here, which certainly wasn’t the case in any of the last three games. It may not completely resemble Game 1 (which they won 112-97), but they’ll at least stay within the number as James Harden will certainly shoot better than 2 for 11 in this game. Play on HOUSTON

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

A second half surge propelled the Lakers to a 112-102 win and cover in Game 3. Now they’ll look to go up 3-1 in the best of seven series against the Rockets. Obviously, Houston is in a virtual must win. We’ll take the points with them as they’ve been very close each of the last two games. Game 2 saw them erase all of an early double digit deficit to go up heading into the 4th quarter. This despite the Lakers shooting better 56% from the field, for the entire game! Game 3 saw the Rockets take the lead into halftime. But again, hot shooting from the Lakers (55.1 FG%) was too much to overcome. The fact that Los Angeles has shot better than 55% the L2 games, yet trailed and was tied going into the 4th quarter is not a good sign, in our opinion. Inevitably, their shooting will cool off. Meanwhile, the Rockets are due to heat up. This is the first time they’ve trailed in a series this postseason. The Lakers are only 5-10-1 ATS in the bubble and this is the first time they’ve covered two in a row. They are 3-7 ATS off their last 10 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on TORONTO

It’s a cliche assessment of Game 5, but Toronto really was badly outplayed at both ends of the floor. The game was never really in doubt as the Celtics raced out to a 25-11 lead after one quarter and a 62-37 lead by halftime. They held the Raptors to 38.8% shooting. But as we see so often in the NBA Playoffs, teams tend to bounce back from a poor effort. Now facing elimination, the Raptors have no other option but to bounce back. They really do need to get it going offensively as they’re averaging just 97.2 PPG for the series. Throughout the course of the series, the odds have shifted rather significantly as Toronto closed as a 2-point favorite for Game 1, but is now a 3-point dog for Game 6. While the pointspread is still unlikely to come into play, we do think there’s value in taking the Raptors as an underdog. They are 6-1-1 ATS their L8 playoff games getting points. The possibility of not having Serge Ibaka hurts, however that’s something they can overcome. Coach Nurse said "I know it sounds crazy .. but I thought our offense was awesome for like the first eight minutes," This despite the team going 2 for 15. Nurse added. "I don't think those shots could have been more open." Look for the Raptors to make those open shots Wednesday. They’ve got no other option. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver played a masterful Game 2, jumping out to a 44-25 advantage by the end of the first quarter, then holding on for the 110-101 upset as 8.5-point underdogs. After the Lakers successfully bounced back from a loss last night, most will anticipate the Clippers doing the same thing tonight. But we feel this line is just too high for an LA team that is just too inconsistent. Plus, the Nuggets have won four of their last five games anyway. They’ve also covered four of the last five times they’ve been an underdog. They are 12-1 ATS their L13 Monday games. Kawhi Leonard had a bad Game 2 and while his numbers should be better tonight, Denver seems to have developed a defensive strategy for him. Paul George can’t be consistently relied on as a second scoring option. We think its Denver that’s likely to have a better offensive performance tonight. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on DENVER

The Nuggets look to rebound from a poor Game 1 effort where they were at the disadvantage of only having one day between series while the Clippers had three. Still, it wasn’t just a matter of rest in the 120-97 defeat. Denver shot the ball horribly, especially from “downtown” as they were 9 of 36 on all three-point attempts. Overall, they shot 42.2% while the Clippers were at 57.1%. We won’t claim that the Nuggets are a great defensive team, but they’ll definitely allow a lower shooting percentage Saturday in Game 2. Denver has cashed the L6 times they have been down in a playoff series including a 3-0 ATS this year. Note that the Clippers failed to cover off their first two wins in the first round series with Dallas, losing outright both times. This is a lot of points for the Nuggets to be getting and while it may not have been nearly enough in Game 1, improved shooting coupled with some obvious regression from the Clippers should lead to at least a cover this time. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami has seized control of this series and there has been nothing remotely fluky about it. Well, Jimmy Butler getting to shoot a pair of “walkoff” free throws in Game 2 might seem a bit fluky. But remember that situation came after a somewhat improbable late game run by the Bucks. The Heat have held the league’s highest scoring offense to just 109 points per game. Going back to the regular season, they have had Milwaukee’s number, winning four of the five meetings. The only loss came here in the bubble and even then the Heat led that game by 17 at halftime. Miami is now 6-0 ATS in the NBA Playoffs and has allowed 104 points or less in four of those wins. Milwaukee is the East’s #1 seed, but they’ve looked like an inferior side the first two games. Quite frankly, they haven’t looked right this whole time in the bubble. They’re only 5-9-1 ATS with three of the covers coming against Orlando. They are also just 3-8 SU when you take out that first round series. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on DENVER

While Denver was taken to a 7th game by Utah, a series that just wrapped up Tuesday, let us also not forget the Clippers went six games against the Dallas Mavericks. These teams did meet earlier in the bubble with the Clippers winning 124-111. But they were only four point favorites for that game and trailed by eight at the half. This Game 1 number certainly seems to be inflated as far as we’re concerned. That’s probably due to the two fewer days of rest that Denver and the fact they were just the 12th team in NBA history to win a series in which it trailed 3-1. But Gary Harris is back for them now. Jamal Murray had three straight games of more than 42 points before Game 7 vs. Utah. Twice he went for 50. The Nuggets have covered six of the last nine times they’ve been getting points. The Clippers can be inconsistent, sometimes taking “nights off” and there are scoring issues behind Kawhi Leonard. This is too many points. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* on DENVER

The Nuggets are one more loss away from their season ending. This was also the case heading into Game 5 which they won 117-107 to stay alive. Before staying alive in Game 5, we took the points with Denver in Game 4 and they also covered the spread there. They are now 5-0 ATS the last two seasons when trailing in a playoff series after covering the last two games. Utah is 5-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this year. They are just 1-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series the last two years. The Jazz have very little to offer offensively other than Donovan Mitchell, something that has become readily obvious in their two SU losses in this series. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland won’t have Damian Lillard as they try and stave off elimination in tonight’s Game 5 against the Lakers. After an 8-2 start to the bubble, they’ve lost three straight games, two of them by 20 or more points. None of the preceding sounds good for tonight. But, predictably, there’s been an overreaction by the oddsmakers here in the wake of the Lillard injury. They had to do it as the public will overwhelmingly bet the Lakers here. But we’re not convinced the line move should have been 7 points. Even without their best player, look for Portland to compete. Beyond its two stars - LeBron and Anthony Davis - the Lakers don’t have much depth, especially in the backcourt. Los Angeles is also a poor three-point shooting team. They made 56.3% of their shots in Game 4, a number they won’t come close to matching tonight. Games 2 and 4 are the only double digit wins the Lakers have in the bubble. The Blazers have some players, notably CJ McCollum, who can step up. They are 4-1 ATS off a double digit loss. We think the extra time between games well help the Blazers adjust to "life without Lillard." Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

While Orlando did pull the upset in Game One, things have quickly (and predictably) swung in Milwaukee’s favor in this series. Now the top-seeded Bucks can take a commanding 3-1 series advantage and there’s really no doubt in our minds that will happen. They are of course big favorites to beat the Magic in Game Four Monday afternoon and why wouldn’t they be? The last two games have seen them hold halftime advantages of 21 and 27 points. The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game Three, an uber-efficient performance where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 pts on 12 of 14 shooting. The Magic are short-handed and have covered only 4 of their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series and while this is a lot of points to lay, they are just that much better than their opponents here. This series likely ends in five games and Milwaukee will win big today. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on DENVER

The Nuggets have quickly gone from favorites to underdogs in this series as they’ve lost the last two games by a combined 56 points. If that sounds bad, well it is. But it's not over yet for Denver as they did win Game 1 (in overtime) and a win here would even the series back up. You have to think the Nuggets are going to shoot better than they did in Game 3. They made just 37.5% of their total attempts including only 12 of 38 three-pointers. The big story was the return of Mike Conley for Utah as he made seven threes on his way to a 27-point game. The Jazz have been somewhat inconsistent on offense during their time in the bubble as they definitely miss 2nd leading scorer Bogdanovic. Now it's Denver hoping for a return (Gary Harris) on Sunday as they look to move to 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been trailing in a playoff series. Utah is just 4-15-2 ATS the last 21 times it has been a favorite and they’re just 2-6 ATS coming off an ATS win. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

After upsetting the Lakers in Game 1, Portland got run out of the gym in Game 2. They were down 30 after three quarters and lost 111-88 in what was easily their worst showing in the NBA bubble. Previous to that, the Blazers had lost only twice and those two losses were by a total of nine points. After scoring at least 124 in all but one seeding game, they’ve been held to an average of 94 points/game by the Lakers. We like them to bounce back in Game 3 and at the very least keep it close. Game 2 aside, the Lakers have not played all that well in the bubble as they are just 2-8 against the spread with six outright defeats. Offensive efficiency is way down, especially when LeBron James is off the court. They have just two wins by more than three points since the restart and have failed to hit 100 four different times. A second straight blowout seems unlikely, so grab the points. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland shocked a lot of people by beating the Lakers 100-93 in Game 1, but not us. This team came into the bubble needing to win almost every game and that’s exactly what they have done. They’ve gone 8-2 in their 10 games with the only two losses coming by a combined nine points. That the Blazers were able to win Game 1 despite a poor offensive night has to scare the Lakers. Portland shot just 39.2% Tuesday night, a far cry from the multiple 124+ point efforts we’ve seen from them in Orlando. As for the Lakers, they are 1-8 ATS in the bubble and struggling to make shots. They haven’t even hit 100 four different times. Their shooting percentage and offensive efficiency, particularly when LeBron James is off the court, has been woeful. We just don’t see how LA is going to win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here, if they even win at all tonight. Besides James and Anthony Davis, the rest of the Lakers combined for just 42 points on 32.1% shooting in Game 1. Since the restart, the top seed has ONE win by more than three points. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* on HOUSTON

Houston was our Game of the Month on Tuesday and they came through with flying colors, clobbering Oklahoma City by a score of 123-108 and it wasn’t even that close as the Rockets led by 21 going into the fourth. This despite not having the services of Russell Westbrook, but we projected James Harden to have a big game and that’s exactly what happened as “The Beard” delivered a 37-point effort. He’s certainly capable of scoring even more than that and we think he will in Game 2. Even without Westbrook, Houston is the better team here. The Thunder overachieved both before and after the restart, but this could be a quick series if they’re not careful. You’ll notice that OKC is now the underdog after opening as the slightest favorite for Game 1. While priced more appropriately, we still don’t like the Thunder’s chances in this one as Gallinari had a career-high 29 points in Game 1 and that didn’t matter. His chances of matching that number this afternoon are slim at best. The Rockets are simply the better team. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia lost Game 1 109-101 and failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. All told, it wasn’t that disappointing a performance as the Sixers led going into the 4th quarter. That is when they went cold. The good news is they held Boston to just 42% shooting and it took every bit of Jayson Tatum’s career playoff highs of 32 points and 13 rebounds to get the Celtics the ‘W.’ While the 76ers are without Ben Simmons, they still should compete in this series and we like them plus the points in Game 2. Late in Game 1, Gordon Hayward suffered a severe ankle sprain, meaning Boston will be without him for likely four weeks. That’s a big loss. The Celtics are not a deep team. Including Hayward, they have just six players that rate better than average in terms of RPM.  They are just 1-4 ATS off the last five ATS wins and we’re going “zig zag” here. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston will be without Russell Westbrook for an indefinite period of time, but let’s not forget that Harden fellow and what he’s capable of doing. The Rockets did lose their last three games, but really had nothing to play for and that should be taken into account. Before that, they’d started the bubble 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Oklahoma City went 4-4 in its eight games as well, albeit in much different fashion. They alternated wins and losses the entire way, meaning not one time did they win OR lose back to back games. They are hoping that pattern continues as it would mean a win here. But we feel differently as the Rockets are being undervalued because of the Westbrook absence. Certainly that matters, but Harden has averaged 35.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists in the bubble with a 53.2 FG%. Two other Rockets have had 40+ point games this year, one of the Austin Rivers’ whose career-high 41 point effort came in the bubble. Houston has enough to get the job done and Oklahoma City hasn’t really had all of its pieces together here in Orlando with Schroeder missing time and Adams hurt. Chris Paul has a hand injury worth monitoring as well. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

Dallas is just 3-5 since the restart while the Clippers have gone 5-3. It’s a tough break that a team as talented as the Mavericks fell to the 7-seed and drew a first round matchup with Los Angeles. But it is also a bit of a “tough draw” for the Clippers. The Mavs are one of the top offensive teams in the league and pose a threat that other potential first round opponents (like Utah or Oklahoma City) would not have. These teams met on August 6th and while LA won 126-111, it was a tie game with just over six minutes remaining. That’s with the Clippers shooting exceptionally well and the Mavs having an “off game” at the offensive end. Luka Doncic is averaging a triple double in the bubble with 32 points/game. The Mavericks have averaged 125 points/game since returning and that makes them a “tough out” as an underdog. The spread was only 3.5 when these teams met 11 days ago. Nothing has really changed significantly for either side since then, so the dog screams VALUE. Play on DALLAS

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This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA

It’s a battle of backups Wednesday but we’re counting on the Sixers showing a little pride in this early evening matchup against the Raptors. It’s not like Philadelphia has played poorly its last two games, where they have been almost entirely without the services of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Simmons’ season is now over while Embiid was hurt early in the 124-121 loss to Portland Sunday night. Yesterday saw Philly compete for 3+ quarters against a highly motivated Suns squad. This is a lot of points to lay with a Raptors team that has nothing to play for as they are locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed. Coming off an impressive win against Milwaukee on Monday, their level of motivation for this one can certainly be called into question. Their last four victories have come by an average of just 7.5 points/game. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is an 6* on PHOENIX

The Suns have been the hottest team in the league since the restart. They’re 5-0 SU/ATS, which has them on the cusp of the Western Conference’s play-in scenario. Finishing 8th and not 9th has its advantages in that you only have to win once (as opposed to twice) to make the playoffs. But right now the Suns just need to keep winning as they are 10th, a full game behind 9th place Portland (won Sunday) and 1.5 games back of 8th place Memphis (lost yesterday) They’ve already beaten four teams with .500 or better records here in Orlando, the latest being Miami by a score of 119-112 - as a 4-point favorite - on Saturday. They were led by Devin Booker’s 35 points. We have to admit that it was a bit eye-opening to see the Suns open as the favorite here and get bet up. But they’ll have more motivation than the Thunder, who also are at the disadvantage of having played yesterday. Oklahoma City won Sunday, 121-103, but don’t put a ton of stock into that as they played Washington (worst team in the bubble). They also made a season-high 18 three-pointers, shooting that won’t be matched today. Unlike all the other teams competing for the 8-seed, Phoenix can claim to have a positive net efficiency rating for the year. This team has the momentum and you should expect them to win Monday afternoon. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston is likely to finish anywhere from 4th to 6th when the “regular season” concludes. Normally, finishing 4th would be a big deal as it would earn you home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But there is no home court advantage any more. Despite that lack of incentive, we still expect the Rockets to “go off” on Sunday against a Kings team that is prone to far too many defensive lapses. Time is running out on the Kings to finish in a position where they could play themselves into the postseason. The way things stand now, they’d have to jump four teams. It’s not mathematically impossible by any means, however, it’s highly unlikely considering the Kings record thus far is 1-4 and they just lost to Brooklyn by double digits. Houston has beaten both Milwaukee and the Lakers and while LA didn’t have LeBron, the Rockets didn’t have Russell Westbrook in that game either. Westbrook is again expected to sit out here but with James Harden still in the lineup, you can look for Houston to score plenty against the team that’s posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league since the restart. The Rockets are off three straight Unders and have gone 6-1 ATS in that situation this season. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 8* on PORTLAND

Saturday was a blown opportunity for the Blazers as they led a lead get away and lost to the Clippers, who were playing without Kawhi Leonard. This leaves them 1.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the West. The Grizzlies are heavy underdogs to the Raptors today, so a win here could very well pull Portland back within one-half game. All they have to do is finish 9th to force a play-in but finishing 8th has its advantages. Also the Blazers must worry about all the teams that are narrowly behind them as finishing 9th is far from a given. Bottom line is that today is “must-win” territory against a Sixers team that was already offensively challenged before losing Ben Simmons. Philadelphia is 3-1 SU in the bubble, but only 1-3 ATS. This will be the first time that the 76ers have been an underdog in a game. They are just 6-16 SU in the underdog role for the season and among those still playing, they have the worst road record of any team besides Washington. Portland really has to have this game. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on TORONTO 

The defending NBA Champion Raptors don’t get the respect they deserve, but they are very likely to get the East’s #2 seed. They can clinch that position with a win tonight over Boston, who is in the #3 spot and likely to finish there. Going back to before the lockdown, Toronto has won seven in a row. That is the longest active win streak in the NBA. They’ve won their three games in Orlando by holding opponents to an average of 98 points/game. That’s remarkable considering how much scoring we’ve seen in the bubble. Even scarier is that Kyle Lowry has shot just 4 for 17 from the field the last two games. Look for his shooting to improve tonight. Boston was red hot shooting the ball Tuesday (56.8 FG%!) but that was against a weak Brooklyn team. The Celtics have issues defending as they’ve given up 112 points in every game so far. Their interior defense was a big question mark heading into the restart and remain so. The Raptors are 29-19 ATS as favorites this season. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Phoenix shocked the Clippers on Tuesday, winning the game outright, 117-115 as a 9.5-point underdog. While they did need a Devin Booker “walkoff,” the Suns led the game most of the way and were pretty impressive. They’re now 3-0 since the restart with wins over two playoff teams (Dallas, Clippers) as they try and force their way into a play-in scenario for the 8-seed. Indiana is also 3-0 SU/ATS in the bubble as Victor Oladipo reversed course on a prior decision and has decided to play here in Orlando. The Pacers looked very good in their last game, a 120-109 win over Orlando, but it’s worth mentioning they’ve yet to face a team from the West here in the bubble. The Pacers and Suns have a common win over Washington, but the Suns other two wins (Dallas, Clippers) are far more impressive than the Pacers’ (Philly, Orlando). The Suns did lose badly to the Pacers at home back in January, but are 15-7 ATS this year when seeking revenge for a home defeat. We think the Suns are a good value here. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Houston is 2-0 since the restart with wins over Dallas and Milwaukee. Impressive as that sounds, the Rockets trailed by double digits in both games. They were down 11 entering the 4th quarter vs. the Mavericks and needed all of James Harden’s 49 points to pull out a 152-149 overtime victory. Against the Bucks, the much maligned defense once again stepped up late. It is impressive that the Rockets could beat the Bucks despite shooting below 40% but we also don’t think they can keep winning in the manner we’ve seen the first two games. Portland has also played two close games, but split the pair. They were down big to Boston on Sunday, but fought back to make it only a 4-point loss. That was after they beat Memphis in overtime in the first game. Currently in ninth place in the Western Conference, the Blazers are well within the four-games of 8th place Memphis to force a play-in series. Still they really could use the win here as they neck and neck with San Antonio for ninth place. Portland beat Houston twice in the regular season so they’re capable of winning outright again.They are healthier now than they were back then. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS this year coming off an upset win.  Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS

Two teams that are 0-2 since the restart will go at it Monday in Orlando. Memphis faces the more uphill climb here. They played yesterday. It was a 108-106 to the Spurs, a bit of a “double whammy” as that result allowed the Spurs to move within two games of the eighth place Grizzlies. Many thought the Pelicans were going to be the team to chase the Grizz down, but obviously they’re trending in a different direction. It’s a case of Zion Williamson not playing much and going against two good teams. The Pelicans blew a double digit loss vs. Utah, then were embarrassed by the Clippers. Still those are both top four teams in the Western Conference. The teams Memphis lost to are 9th and 10th. This is a must win for the Pelicans, who are 3.5 back of the Grizzlies. With Memphis just 24 hours removed from a tough 2-point loss, they’re in a tough spot. They also played an overtime game Friday. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies both times they played in the regular season. Both wins were by double digits. The Pelicans have covered 13 of their last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Look for Williamson to be more of a factor today.This team was embarrassed Saturday and will want to make up for that. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston needed every bit of James Harden’s 49 points on Friday to overcome a terrible defensive effort in what ended up being a 153-149 overtime win over Dallas. The Rockets trailed by double digits entering the 4th Quarter, but were then able to hold the Mavericks to just 30 points over the final 17 minutes. The fact Houston played so poorly on the defensive end and had to overcome a late deficit should not bias you here though. While they’re facing Milwaukee, the Bucks won’t have guards Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, so there is a depth issue. The Bucks looked good against Boston Friday, winning 119-112, though Giannis Antetounkmpo probably should have gotten ejected. Also the Bucks raced to a 17-2 lead out of the game, which was the difference in the game. Houston won’t shoot as poorly as the Celtics did (40.7%) and an offensive team like this getting points is a great opportunity. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on OKC

The Jazz have already played once, a 106-104 come from behind win over the Pelicans. That preserved their status as the West’s 4th place team for the meantime but a lot can change over the next seven games as they are part of a five-team mess separated by just 3.5 games. Also in that group is Oklahoma City, who has not played yet. The Thunder are 2-0 ATS vs. the Jazz this year, part of an overall 39-24-1 mark at the betting window that is the league’s best. Most impressive of all is that the Thunder are 23-8 ATS on the road. Utah winning that game Thursday night should not make you forget that they trailed by as much as 16 points or that they are without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic, whose 41.4% three-point shooting will sorely be missed. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY

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This is a 10* on MEMPHIS

Perhaps no team in the entire NBA has defied expectations more than Memphis Grizzlies have. Projected to win only 27 games this season, they’ve already surpassed that number (they’ve won 32 games) and seem poised to make the playoffs as the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies aren’t favored very often, but be sure to take them when they are. Not only do they boast a 14-4 straight up record in the chalk role, they are also 13-5 against the spread. Tonight they host an Orlando team that is 7-1 ATS its last eight games and off a big upset win in Houston. But considering that was only the sixth time the Magic won as an underdog this year, we will gladly lay the short number in this game. Tonight marks the Magic’s 4th road game in the past 7 nights. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Toronto won last night in Sacramento 118-113. Playing in the second night of a back to back should not prevent them from being able to win again tonight. The Raptors have won three straight on this road trip, previously winning in Phoenix and Golden State. It’ll be a tougher test tonight in Utah as the Jazz have won five in a row, the last four all coming on the road. But our view is that the better team is getting points and that’s something we can’t look past. Earlier in the year, they crushed the Jazz by 20. They led that game by 40 at halftime! While it was in Toronto, the Raptors are a strong 22-9 in their road games. Utah has been inconsistent this year, a point driven home by the fact this current 5-game run was preceded by a 4-game losing streak. They are just 5-11-1 ATS their past 17 games with only one cover as a favorite in the last eight tries. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on ORLANDO

Orlando has seen a recent surge in scoring, leading to their last 10 games all going Over the total. They just hung 132 points in a win at Minnesota Friday night and are now 6-1 ATS the last seven games. Tonight they are getting a generous number of points from a Houston team that’s moving in the WRONG direction. The Rockets were the hottest team in the league not long ago but have gone 0-3 straight up and against the spread in March. Two of those losses came to the Knicks and Hornets, teams far worse off than Magic right now. Despite giving up more points than usual lately, the Magic are still top five in the league in fewest points allowed for the season. They give up 107.2 per game. Orlando has covered its last five road games. Play on ORLANDO

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This is a 10* on the WARRIORS

Steph Curry returns tonight to a Warriors team that is nothing like it’s been at any point in the last five seasons. The three-time NBA champs have the worst record in the league at 14-48. Golden State has won only five times in 2020, though two of those have come in the last three games. Perhaps motivated by the former MVP’s impending return, Curry’s teammates won in Denver two nights ago 116-110 as a 16-point underdog. Tonight, in a rematch of last year’s Finals, the Warriors face the Raptors. We expect this to be one of the high points of a lost season in Golden State. Yes, to expect Curry to play at an MVP-level right away would be foolish. But he doesn’t need to. The Warriors are still clear underdogs and only need to keep it close. Toronto has injuries as well with Fred Van Vleet and Serge Ibaka both expected not to play. Before beating Phoenix Tuesday, the Raptors had lost three straight and four of six. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

Brooklyn is off a huge win last night as they came back from a 17-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to upset Boston 129-120 in overtime. They were 6.5 point underdogs and led by Caris LeVert’s 51 points. Now they face a quick turnaround to host Memphis. Most will look at this as a bad spot for the Nets, but they are at home. The Grizzlies have a losing record away from home and while they are off 39-point road win, it was against Atlanta. They were actually an underdog in that game due to multiple players being injured. Those same players - Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson - are both out tonight as well. The Grizzlies were fortunate to get a very balanced offensive attack against Atlanta (9 players in double figures!) but can’t count on that every night. Nor can they count on every opponent shooting as poorly as Atlanta did (32.5%!).  Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on UTAH

Give credit to Cleveland for playing better since the firing of former coach John Beilein. They’ve even posted home wins against the likes of Miami and Philadelphia. But those teams seem to be unique in how much they struggle on the road. Utah, who finally ended its losing streak (at four games) Friday, should have little difficulty coming in here and winning. The Cavs have lost two in a row, to New Orleans and Indiana. They still rate as one of the league’s worst teams. Utah winning its last game 129-119 over Washington should jumpstart a nice run for them as they fight for position in the Western Conference. They are the more rested team here and should put up another big total like they did vs. Washington. The Cavs are last in the league in defensive efficiency (Wizards are second to last). Donovan Mitchell has scored 30 or more in the last four games for Utah and should continue that streak in a big win tonight. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

We all know about the Sixers’ struggles on the road. While the league’s preeminent home team (28-2 SU at home!), Philly is only 9-21 straight up in road games. That difference of -19 (home vs. road wins) is seven games more than the team with the second biggest split. Today they are at the Clippers, who have won three straight games by double digits. Two were at home and those margins of victory were 27 and 29 points. Despite all of this, we are grabbing the big number with the road dog. You’re not likely to get this many points with the Sixers in any game all season. Obviously that has to do with the fact Joel Embiid will miss the game with a shoulder injury. Ben Simmons is out too. But still this is too many points. The Clippers can have “off-nights” defensively and the Sixers have still won 6 out of their last 8 games. There’s been just one time all season that LA covered four in a row and it was back in December. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on UTAH

A long homestand typically provides a team an opportunity to start rolling, but in the case of the current one for the Utah Jazz, that certainly hasn’t been the case. The last four games have all ended with them on the “short end of the stick.” Adding insult to injury, they were favored in all four games. But tonight should be a reprieve with Washington paying a visit. The Wizards are off a win, but that was against a Nets team that is playing without Kyrie Irving. The two games before that, the Wizards got 50+ point games from Bradley Beal and still lost! On January 12th, the Jazz went to D.C. and won 127-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Winning by more at home shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Wizards are 7-21 SU on the road and it can’t be stressed enough just how bad they have been defensively. They are giving up an average of 123.5 points in road games, the highest such average in the league. Expect a big bounce back effort from the home team tonight. Play on UTAH

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

On Monday, Cleveland hosted a top 5 team in the East (Miami) whose play dips rather significantly on the road. Sure enough, the Cavs beat the Heat in overtime, 125-119 as a 6.5-point home underdog. It was a rather shocking come from behind effort as the Cavs trailed by 19 going into the fourth quarter. Of course, the Heat’s road woes are well documented. We bring this up because the team Cleveland hosts tonight sees an even more dramatic dropoff when they are on the road and that’s Philadelphia. The Sixers are a league-best 27-2 straight up at home. But their road record is 9-20. That is easily the biggest gap any team in the league has when it comes to home vs. road wins. So can Cleveland pull the same trick twice in a row? Not sure about them winning straight up tonight, but we do like the points as the 76ers are 1-9 ATS in road games where the total is 220 or higher. They are 4-8-1 ATS as a road favorite with six outright losses. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on INDIANA

Both of these teams just got their tails kicked in. For Charlotte, it was Saturday when they lost at home to Brooklyn by 29 points, a real “bad look” considering the Nets are now without Kyrie Irving. Still, in terms of margin, the loss wasn’t as bad as what Indiana suffered Sunday in Toronto as they went down 127-81. One of the teams will get to bounce back from the embarrassing defeat Monday and our money is on the Pacers as not only are they playing at home, they are also simply the much better basketball team at this juncture. Even with three consecutive upsets straddling the All-Star Break, the Hornets are still only 4-14 straight up their past 18 games and when they lose it’s generally by a wide margin. The Hornets’ record in games decided by 10 points or more is a lousy 4-24 straight up. They are also just 2-19 vs. teams that have winning records while going 5-14-2 against the spread.  Play on INDIANA

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This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA

The Sixers are back home Monday and you should know what that means. It’s a virtual guarantee that they’ll play better than they did Saturday night in Milwaukee when they lost 119-98. That loss dropped Philly to 9-20 in road games. They are 26-2 at home. Throw in the fact that they go from facing the league’s best team to (maybe) its worst and it should be a complete “reversal of fortune” here. While the Hawks are 2-0 since returning from the All Star Break, each of those wins came at home. They have only six road wins all year and only one in the last 30 days. Philadelphia is playing with revenge tonight as well. They lost in Atlanta last month. (They also won there early in the season). The Sixers are an impressive +10.0 points/game compared to their opponents here at home. They are 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 or higher (total here is currently 229). Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

We all know about how the Sixers perform on the road relative to how they do at home. On Thursday, they defeated the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 112-104. That improved their already league-best home record to 26-2 straight up. However, they’ve gone just 9-19 straight up on the road and tonight finds them playing in Milwaukee. Despite this seemingly “insurmountable” task the 76ers are facing, we like them to come through with the cash tonight on ABC. Impressive as they have been, the Bucks cannot possibly continue to win by these large margins. What’s interesting is that they have played only 17 games all season against teams that have winning records (fewest in the league). They are 10-7 straight up in those games and 7-10 against the spread. They’ve lost only 1 time all year to a team with a losing record. A couple of weeks ago Philly came here and lost by 11. We think they’ll do better this time as this game means more to them than it does to the Bucks. They did beat the Bucks earlier in the year (at home). Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* on UTAH

The Spurs were done a favor last night as Memphis lost, meaning San Antonio is now within 3.5 games of the 8th (and final) playoff spot out West. Utah has its eyes on a bigger prize as they went into the All Star Break 4th in the conference and on a 4-game win streak. The last three wins were against Houston, Dallas and Miami and the Jazz covered all three. This is a step down in class from those teams, all of which are solidly in the playoff mix. Two of the wins (Houston, Dallas) even came on the road. Speaking of the road, it has been unkind to San Antonio. The annual “Rodeo Road Trip” began on Feb 3rd and has seen the Spurs go 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS with the only straight up win coming at Oklahoma City right before the break. Utah has a big edge defensively in this matchup as they give up only 104.1 points/game at home while SA allows 116.4 on the road. Utah is 20-5 at home while SA is 9-19 on the road. This is the Spurs first visit to Salt Lake City this season and the Jazz have revenge for losing as a five-point favorite in the Alamo last month. Play on UTAH

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analysis coming

This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

The Timberwolves laying this many points should tell you something and that “something” is that Charlotte is not good. While the Hornets did just win an ugly 87-76 game at Detroit two nights ago, that was preceded by five consecutive losses. Overall they’ve dropped 13 of 15 games and fallen near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. There are only three teams in the league that have been outscored by more points. Those are Cleveland, Atlanta and Golden State, who happen to have the three worst records in the league. So expect more losses to pile up for Charlotte in the coming weeks. In terms of laying this many points with the Timberwolves, who have lost 14 of their last 15 games, do not fret. They already won at Charlotte by 22 points earlier in the year. In the last home game, they hung 142 on the Clippers. If they can do that to a good team like the Clippers, they can certainly blowout the Hornets. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

The Chicago Bulls have not made the playoffs in several seasons. This year, the Eastern Conference is really lacking in depth so fans in the Windy City were hoping the drought would end. Unfortunately though, the Bulls are 16 games below .500 and have lost five in a row. Defense has been atrocious with them giving up 124 points/game during the current losing streak. Bad defense is something Washington knows all too well, but it was a poor offensive effort that cost them against Memphis on Monday night. They finished with only 99 points, the first time in a month they failed to break 100. The Wizards are normally a good offensive team (they average 115.5 points/game) so look for them to get back on track against this struggling Bulls team tonight. What happened against Memphis was they fell apart late, missing 18 of 22 shots in the fourth quarter as a double digit lead evaporated. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana comes into Monday on a five-game losing streak. Two of the losses came to a Toronto team that has won 14 in a row. The Pacers are lucky in that the East has no real depth, so they’re not in any real danger of falling further than where they’re at right now, which is 6th. The 7th place team (Brooklyn) is who they’ll face tonight and there’s a seven game gap between the teams even with the Pacers losing streak. The Nets also just lost in Toronto and it was by the same exact score (119-118) that Indiana lost by on Feb 5th. Both teams covered the spread in those losses and the Nets do come in riding a 3-game ATS win streak. But they’ve won only one time on the road going back to the start of 2020. To us, it’s just a question of whether or not the Pacers can cover the spread and we think they can as they already hold two double digit wins over Brooklyn this year and both of those were on the road. They didn’t have Victor Oladipo either. Now the Nets don’t have Kyrie Irving. The Nets are 1-8 ATS their last nine times as a road underdog. Play on INDIANA

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

A .500 record in the NBA may not seem like much to “crow” about, but the Grizzlies (26-26) are plenty happy with it as right now they’d be the 8th and final playoff team out West. Not much was expected from Memphis this year. Certainly not a playoff berth. But led by Ja Morant, they’ve really transformed and are currently on a 7-2 SU/ATS run. They did lose Friday in Philadelphia though. Both losses in the last nine games were on the road and by double digits. Washington is another team we expected little from this year and they’ve been more in line with that projection, coming in at 18-32. But they upset Dallas on Friday, right here at home, for what was their third win in four games. All those games have been at home and they were a three-point dog when they beat the Mavs 119-118. What we find significant about the line here is that Memphis has only been a road favorite three times previous to this. While they may be 14 games below .500, the Wizards are only 2.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the East. So don’t look for them to pack it in anytime soon. They are 10-6 ATS as a home underdog, winning nine of those games straight up. They can score (115.6 points/game) and have won seven of nine home games overall. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

After a four-game win streak that saw them upset Houston, the Lakers and Utah, Portland got severely humbled out in Denver Tuesday night. They lost 127-99 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was their worst defeat of the year, at least when it comes to margin. But now they return home for a big game against San Antonio. Both these teams are chasing the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Right now, the Blazers have a half game lead. San Antonio is on its annual “Rodeo Road Trip” and it hasn’t started well with losses to both the Clippers and Lakers. The Lakers got them by 27 on Tuesday so both teams are coming into this game off blowout losses. But it’s the Spurs third road game in four nights, putting them at a distinct disadvantage. The Spurs are 8-16 on the road. Damian Lillard has been on fire recently for Portland and should lead his team to an easy home victory tonight. Lay the points. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS

Today is the beginning of the most challenging part of the season for the Miami Heat. From now until Feb 20th (which is the first game after the All-Star Break), they’ll be on the road. We all know what the Heat are capable of at home where they’ve gone 22-3 and just destroyed Philadelphia 137-106. But obviously the road has been far less kind as the Heat have played only .500 ball, going 12-12. The long road trip starts against one of the best teams in the league and the Clippers can be pretty rude hosts themselves. LA is 21-5 at home and this will be their final time playing here before breaking for All Star Weekend. When Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both play, the Clippers are pretty unbeatable. WIth those two both in the lineup tonight, the game being on national television and it being the last home game before the All Star Break, look for a really solid effort from the home side. The Heat are 0-3 this year after a game in which they scored 130 or more points. Play LA CLIPPERS

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

We’ve got two BAD teams facing off here, although the Knicks have surprisingly been playing better of late. They’ve gone 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games, which includes a 106-86 win here in Cleveland back on MLK Day. On Saturday, the Knicks shocked the Pacers, winning 92-87 as 11-point underdogs. The Cavs have been terrible, with just one win in their past 11 games, but we like them to get revenge against the Knicks tonight. It’s been a LONG time since the Cavs won a game at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. You’d have to go back to before Christmas when they won three in a row. Since then, it’s been 10 straight losses here, including an embarrassing one to Golden State on Saturday where they were favored and lost 131-112. We expect an “all hands on deck” approach to this one from the home side as this is a game Cleveland “knows” it can win. The Knicks have won as an underdog eight times previous to the win at Indiana. Only twice have they followed that up by winning again. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

How far the mighty have fallen! The Warriors and Cavaliers met four straight years in the NBA Finals (2015-18), but that seems like “ancient history” now as Golden State (who won three of those finals) have been besieged by injuries while Cleveland (won 2016 Finals) saw LeBron James leave them for a second time. The Cavs are still trying to find their way post-LeBron, but they actually have a better record than the Warriors this season (13-36 vs. 10-39), which is obviously something that nobody anticipated being the case. Since a four-game win streak from 12/20-12/27, Golden State has won just once (1/18 vs. Orlando). They have lost 15 of 16 overall and their last road win was December 6th in Chicago! It’s 10 straight losses on the road including a pair of double digit defeats to Boston and Philadelphia this week. Therefore, we relish the opportunity to lay such a short number here, even with a team like Cleveland. It’s not like the Cavaliers aren’t going to be motivated tonight. Since the 2016 Finals (when they came back to win after facing a 3-1 series deficit), they are just 2-13 vs. Golden State including nine losses in a row. Time for that streak to end. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

This game is on ESPN. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing Luka Doncic as the Mavs superstar re-injured his ankle in practice Thursday. The same ankle was sprained earlier in the year causing Doncic to miss four games. He’s reportedly going to miss at least the next two. Both Dallas and Houston enter this game at 29-18, tied for 5th in the Western Conference. But with Doncic out, it’s pretty clear which team is going to be better and we’ll look to take full advantage. The Rockets have lost six of nine and just split four games on the road. They’re off a loss in Portland, 125-112 as a 5-point favorite. So look for them to come out highly motivated in their return home against a wounded rival. They are 6-2 ATS off a double digit loss this season. Dallas was just buried, at home, by Phoenix and that was with Doncic in the lineup. We faded the Mavs there as they lost for a third time in the last five games and gave up a season-high 133 points. Houston also has revenge here for a 14-point loss earlier in the year when Doncic went for 41 points. He won’t be there tonight so look for superstars James Harden and Russell Westbrook to carry the Rockets to a big victory. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Bad spot here for Utah as they lost last night in San Antonio and now head to Denver where they’ll have to not only deal with the elevation but also a Nuggets team that sports the same 32-15 SU record. Denver, like Utah, lost its last game. But that was in Memphis. When playing at home, the Nuggets are 18-6 and holding teams to 103.9 points/game. Utah hasn’t had many back to backs this year (only four prior to this one). The last two games have seen the Jazz fall as favorites. Not only were they -5 at San Antonio, but they were -14.5 vs. Houston as the Rockets won that game without James Harden and Russell Westbrook. A third game in four nights, with no rest, is going to be too much to overcome here as Denver is every bit as motivated off their loss. While this is the first time facing the Jazz, he Nuggets record in division games this year is 6-0 (straight up). Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on NEW YORK

The Knicks 5-game ATS win streak came to an end last night in Charlotte as they lost to the Hornets by a score of 97-92. They blew a 13-point lead. We thought the game would end up being a lot higher scoring and the reason it wasn’t is NY couldn’t buy a basket. That was a stark contrast to their last time playing at home when they shot 53.3% in a 110-97 win over Brooklyn. The Grizzlies head to Madison Square Garden this evening looking to win a fourth straight game and for the 11th time in 13 games. Memphis also played yesterday as they beat Denver 104-96, thanks to some real sharp shooting. They finished the game at 56.1%, their third game in a row at above 52% (3-0 ATS). Don’t think they’ll be able to sustain that level of shooting. There’s also some pressure on Memphis here as a win would get them to .500, something they haven’t been this late in a season in several years. The Grizzlies have not fared well in non-conference games the last few seasons, going 20-56 straight up and 27-47 against the spread. This is a team that’s only been favored in 12 games all season! Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Dallas was a winner last night as they went into Oklahoma City and prevailed 107-97. That was no small feat as the Thunder came into the game on a 5-0 SU/ATS run. Here the Mavs get to play host to a Phoenix team that is like Dallas in the sense that each probably feels they should have a better won-loss record. Though they’ve lost three of the last four games, two of them were by five points or less. This is a quick 24-hour turnaround for the Mavericks and they just played three tough road games (Utah, Portland, OKC). Winning here by any kind of substantial margin seems like a difficult proposition. Phoenix is 10-11 straight up on the road and 13-8 against the spread. They’ve won at Boston and San Antonio already this month. Grab the points. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

The Cavs lost their seventh straight game Saturday night as a long season seemingly gets even longer. But it’s pretty crazy to think that Detroit has only five more wins on the year than Cleveland does. Seeing this number attached to the Pistons immediately caught our eye as there’s no real reason for them to be this big of a favorite. Earlier in the month, these Central Division foes played a couple of tight games - both decided by three points or less - with the road team going 2-0. The Pistons are off a couple of double digit losses here at home - to Memphis and Brooklyn - so again, not sure why anyone would want to lay this many points with them right now. The Pistons have lost six of their last nine overall and are just 9-15 straight up and against the spread on the road. They are 1-5 ATS L6 as a favorite including 0 for 4 when laying more than two points. They didn’t cover either game vs. the Cavs earlier in the month. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO 

Toronto has won six straight games, pulling them into a tie with Miami for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. However, the Raptors did not cover last time out as we said they would not. We took the points with the Knicks and tonight is a far more daunting road trip into San Antonio. While the Spurs are not as strong as they’ve usually been for Greg Popovich, this is a team that has won outright each of the last three times it has been getting points. They did lose, as a favorite, Friday at home to Phoenix. That game saw us go against SA, making us winners on each of these team’s last game. The Spurs won in Toronto 105-104 back on January 12th as a 4.5-point underdog. The Raptors are a bit healthier now than they were back then, but not as well rested, so this pointspread doesn’t make much sense to us. Toronto was off three days rest when they hosted the Spurs two weeks ago. Now they’re playing a second road game in three days. The Spurs have covered the last five games vs. the Raptors. Play on SAN ANTONIO

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

Since New Year’s Eve, Cleveland is just 2-11. Tonight at home, they hope the “third time will be the charm.” This week has seen them lose twice at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, to the Knicks and Wizards, teams that are well below .500. They were even favored (-2.5) against Washington Thursday, but lost 124-112 due to lack of defense. But tonight looks like a good time to take a flier on the Cavs. They are getting Chicago, who is fresh off a terrible showing last night at home vs. Sacramento. The Bulls lost that one 98-81 as it was the third time in the past five games they failed to score 100 points. The Bulls aren’t a great offensive team to begin with and shot just 39% last night. They had only 12 points in the fourth quarter vs. the Kings as they played for the first time without Lori Markkanen. For a Cleveland team that doesn’t win much, this is one of their more “winnable” games in some time and will be treated as such. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on PHOENIX

More than half of the games have already been played this NBA season and it very much looks like the top seven in the Western Conference have really solidified themselves. What order those seven teams finish in is still to be determined as is who is going to get the #8 spot. The Suns and Spurs are both contenders (for the #8 spot) and meet Friday in the Alamo. San Antonio, who hasn’t missed the playoffs since the late 1990’s, currently has the position after knocking off New Orleans in Zion Williamson’s debut Wednesday. Phoenix has the second longest active playoff drought in the league (2010) but has the feel of an improved team this year. Despite being eight games below .500, the Suns are very much a competitive team. They just faced the Spurs earlier in the week, at home, and lost by two points. So this is a revenge game and they are 18-9 ATS the L27 games in that situation. After losing by two to the Spurs Monday, it was a far worse showing vs. Indiana on Wednesday. But this is a team that’s gone 4-2 SU its last six on the road including an upset over Boston. While the Spurs are on a three-game win streak, all three wins have been by five points or less. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is an 8* on NEW YORK

Despite losing the Finals MVP (Kawhi Leonard) to the Clippers and a myriad of holdovers to various injuries, the Raptors have persevered into 2020 with the third best record in the Eastern Conference. They’re as healthy now as they’ve been all season and that’s resulted in a five-game win streak where they’ve averaged 124.2 points/game. But tonight’s game is far trickier than its looks with the Knicks having covered three straight. New York played both Philadelphia and the Lakers tough here at home, losing those games by only three and eight points. In between, they went to Cleveland and picked up a 20-point victory. This is a pretty decent number that Toronto is laying here. Though they’ve yet to drop a game as a road favorite this season (9-0 straight up), they just failed to cover in Atlanta as 8.5-point favorites (won by 5) and that’s the only time they’ve been asked to lay more in a road game than what they are laying for this one.  Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

From 12/28 to 1/13, the Lakers have won nine in a row. Now they’ve lost two of the last four games. They played last night, and won, but it was in unimpressive fashion beating the Knicks 100-92. That was on the heels of a humiliating 139-107 loss in Boston Monday. The road trip continues Thursday in Brooklyn where LA will be solidly favored. This is not only because the Lakers have the best record in the Western Conference but also because the Nets have been struggling badly. It’s four straight losses for the Nets and they’ve failed to cover every time. A 2-11 record since Christmas isn’t scaring anybody. But with Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert having returned to the lineup, the Nets can only be down for so long. This is a really bad spot for the Lakers, who are playing their third road game in four days. It’s been a brutal schedule of late for the Nets. However they have been off since Monday. By not covering last night, the Lakers are just 1-5 ATS their last six tries as road favorites. Play on BROOKLYN

AAA

This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS

This game was moved to 9:35 et so that it could be shown on ESPN. You may be wondering why that is considering it’s two teams with losing records.  Well, tonight will mark the debut of Zion Williamson for New Orleans. The top overall choice from last summer’s draft finally takes the court and it comes at a time when the Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season. Since December 23rd, the team is 10-4 straight up and 12-1-1 ATS. They just won by 10 in Memphis, which is pretty significant seeing as the Grizzlies came in sporting the league’s longest active win streak at seven straight. The Pelicans scored 126 points and made 21 three-pointers. The Spurs don’t play great defense, so with Williamson in there and Jrue Holliday being back, look for the Pelicans to go off again. This will be a successful debut for the #1 draft pick. Play on NEW ORLEANS

AAA

This is an 8* on PHOENIX

Indiana did not handle the second leg of a back to back well, losing by 30 at Utah on Monday. They had just beaten Denver the previous night 115-107 in a come from behind effort. The Denver-Utah doubleshot is one of the hardest in the league. But still, the Pacers losing by 30 in the second game was rather discouraging. This isn’t a great road team as the WL record is just 11-11 SU and they’ve been outscored. Phoenix, despite a 9-15 record at home, actually has a positive point differential in those games. The Suns have made the leap to respectability this year and are 13-7 ATS as underdogs. Since Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton have played together, the team is 6-5 straight up. They did lose by two to San Antonio on Monday, but shot well in the game and almost won after being down by 20. Phoenix is a much better team than you think and worthy of a play here. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is an 8* on the CLIPPERS

A lot of teams are competing for “second best” (behind the Lakers) in the Western Conference. These are two of them. The Clippers currently have that second position with a 30-13 record. They’ve won three straight coming into this game. Dallas has won four straight and has a slightly better point differential. But the Mavericks are only 5th in the West, 2.5 games back of the Clippers. Earlier this season, they lost by 15 at home to the Clippers. Both teams have recently been hampered by key absences. Kristaps Porzingis could return tonight for the Mavs after missing the last 10 games. Paul George likely will not be back for the Clippers. But we’re still on LA. They are 6-0 ATS on Tuesday nights this season. But perhaps more pertinent is the fact Dallas is just 3-7-1 ATS its previous 11 home games. We believe that - with or without George - the Clippers are the better team here. Play on LA CLIPPERS

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

This isn’t the first time that the Rockets have lost three in a row. But it does feel like a season low-point. Monday sees them hosting an Oklahoma City team that beat them on January 9th by 21 points. But that game was in Oklahoma City. While Houston has lost three in a row as favorites and two straight at home, we expect this is the spot where they get back on track. The Thunder are just 2-3 straight up and against the spread since beating the Rockets. This is a third game in four days for them. They’ve been a good bet as a road underdog, but the Thunder are statistically below average on the road. Expect a very motivated effort from the home side in this one. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver is second in the Western Conference with a 29-12 SU record. They’ve come out ahead in five of the last six games, including each of the last three. They continue to be a strong home team as their record here in the Mile High City is 17-5 and they hold opponents to 103.1 PPG. Indiana, like most of the teams in the Eastern Conference, are strong at home but only so-so on the road. The Pacers have won four straight overall, but any of the last three could have been a loss. Now Denver did need OT to get by Golden State Thursday. But that was a road game. This seems like an awfully low number for the Nuggets to be laying on their home floor. We realize there are injuries that they are dealing with, but they still scored 134 points against the Warriors even without Murray, Milsap and Harris. Milsap could be back in the lineup tonight. Denver won 126-114 at Indiana earlier this month and is a deep team. Indiana is 6-14-1 ATS its last 21 road games vs. teams who have a home win percentage of better than .600. Play on DENVER

AAA

THis is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks are just plain ridiculous. At 37-6 SU, they are ahead of last year’s pace when they ended up having the best record in the league. If you’re surprised by the size of tonight’s line, you shouldn’t be. Brooklyn may have Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, but that hasn’t mattered so far as they’ve lost games to Utah and Philadelphia. Those are two good teams. But guess what? There aren’t any better teams than Milwaukee. Plus, while Irving is back, the Nets have lost some key support. It looks like backup center DeAndre Jordan is going to have to sit this one out. They may have won by only five points Thursday night, but the Bucks led Boston by as much as 20. They have scored at least 122 points in four straight games. The last three times they’ve gone to Brooklyn, they’ve come out ahead and covered the spread. The Bucks are winning by 12.5 points per game, which is amazing and we see them winning by double digits tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

We may have played against Washington two nights ago in Chicago, but here we like them getting the points against Toronto. It’s more points that they’re getting obviously and it comes at a time when the team is getting much healthier. In terms of making a run at the playoffs, it might be too late to save the season, but the Wizards are probably an undervalued team right now. As for Toronto, who has been dealing with its own set of injuries, they took care of business in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. It was a 130-121 win as a 1-pt underdog. But not since Christmas have the Raptors put together two straight  wins. This is probably their best shot to do so, but as mentioned earlier, it’s a very large number that they’ll be laying and it's to an opponent that averages 114.6 points/game. The Wizards led both at halftime and in the fourth quarter in Chicago. While they’ve gone 4-20 vs. Toronto going back seven seasons, they lost by just four here last month. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in games with a total of 220 or more this season. Play on WASHINGTON  

AAA

This is a 10* on CHICAGO

The door is open for the Bulls to make a playoff run, they simply won’t “walk through.” A dreadful stretch has seen them go 1-7 straight up and against the spread. Looking at their last four wins, two have been against Detroit, one against Atlanta (who has the worst record in the league) and the other against the team they are hosting tonight, Washington. The Wizards have their own set of issues. Due to injuries, they’ve had a pretty lousy last month or so. They’ve won just six times going all the way back to December 6th. By rule, somebody has to win this matchup and we believe it’ll be Chicago and they’ll do so pretty easily. Washington is the league’s worst defensive team and the fact they give up 121.6 points/game on the road makes them almost unplayable at this number. Chicago has covered five of the last seven times it has taken on an opponent that has a losing record. Tonight is only the second time the Wizards have played on the road since Christmas. They lost by 34 at Orlando last week. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Everybody knows this is not the same Warriors team from the last half decade. But as recently as Christmas there were signs that they might be able to turn around what seemed to be a lost season. They won four in a row including an upset of Houston on Christmas Day. But since then it’s been all downhill with an eight-game losing streak. To be fair, they were underdogs in all eight games and getting double digits in five. So it’s not like the oddsmakers are expecting them to win. But they certainly could be more competitive. Tonight the Warriors are facing the team that started the losing streak, Dallas, who has gone only 3-5 its last eight games. Our view here is that while the Mavericks likely win, they aren’t going to cover the large spread on the road. A national TV game should be enough to inspire Golden State tonight and they obviously are already motivated enough to end this long losing streak. Dallas just hasn’t been playing very well of late, save for Saturday’s win against Philadelphia. But that was at home. The Mavs have scored at least 140 points in both wins against Golden State this year. That won’t happen again and it’s yet another reason to think the home dog comes out motivated. Dallas is 0-6 ATS their last six games off an ATS victory. They are 0-5 ATS off a SU win of more than 10 points. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

Before running into the Lakers Sat night, Oklahoma City had been on quite the roll. They’d covered the number in eight straight games and had won 11 of their last 13 straight up. But the 125-110 loss to LA, a game where the Lakers played without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, was a terribly disappointing result. Our view is that the Thunder, after overachieving for much of the first half of the season, could now be in a position where we start to see them “give some back.” Tonight’s game marks only the 4th time they will have been a road favorite this season. It comes against a Timberwolves team coming off its worst loss of the season. It was by 30 to Houston and they gave up 139 points. But not only has Minnesota covered four straight times when off a loss, they have had OKC’s number in the past as well, covering the spread in eight of the last nine matchups. The lone non-cover was last month in Oklahoma City, so that’s more revenge for the Timberwolves. The fact the Thunder won that last meeting by a score of 139-127 was highly misleading. The game went to overtime after a missed free throw (by Minnesota) and subsequent technical foul for a player not having his jersey tucked in properly. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Charlotte isn’t a good team. But the fact they’ve even won 15 games is a bit misleading. They have a bottom five point differential and have lost 9 of their last 11 games. Both wins were by just three points. They have eight wins by three points or less this season, which is by far the most in the league. If not for all of those, they’d certainly be at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. So we’ll be looking to fade them Sunday night in Phoenix with our strongest NBA side bet of the week. The Suns may also have only 15 wins themselves, but they have been outscored by just 1.1 points/game. That’s actually tied for the 8th best differential in the Western Conference. After years of losing, the Suns are improved this year. They won at Charlotte last month, 109-104, as a four-point favorite. They should be favored by more here. Charlotte has not won on a Sunday all season (0-6 SU) and has gone 1-5 ATS in those games. This is Phoenix’s fifth straight game at home. They are coming off a 98-94 win against Orlando. Charlotte is playing its second road game in three nights. They lost by 17 at Utah Friday. Play on PHOENIX.

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

Compared to the Lakers, Dallas has a very similar point differential and net efficiency rating. However, they are lagging well behind in the standings. The Mavericks have fallen all the way down to 6th place in the West, seven games back of LA. It was a tough loss on Wednesday as they fell here at home, 107-106 to Denver. That makes tonight’s game even more important. The Mavs have caught a big break in that Anthony Davis is out (tailbone) and LeBron James hasn’t been feeling well. So it’s a game the Mavs really should win. The Lakers haven’t lost since Christmas, going 6-0 since, so you couldn’t fault them if they failed to match the sense of urgency Dallas has coming into tonight’s showdown. Key here is that the Mavericks were favored against Denver on Wednesday. They are a perfect 9-0 ATS this season when coming off a loss as a favorite! While just 2-3 straight up their last five games, all three losses by the Mavs have been by five points or less. They are better than their record and actually one of the top teams in the league. Play on DALLAS

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This is an 10* on BROOKLYN

The way things are going right now, this could end up being a 1st round playoff series. Miami has won 8 of its last 10 games to get to 27-10 on the year and that’s good enough for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn has spent much of this season in 7th place, but has recently fallen to 8th as they’ve lost seven in a row and even worse failed to cover all seven games. This despite Caris LeVert returning to the lineup after a lengthy absence. Kyrie (Irving) won’t be back for at least another week, so someone needs to step up for the Nets. They’ve been hit by some bad luck lately. Tuesday’s 111-103 loss to Oklahoma City went to overtime and dropped the Nets to 1-4 in OT games this season. We think them getting the Heat at home Friday night is a good spot. First off, Miami may be a league-best 17-1 at home. But they are just 10-9 on the road and have given up more points than they have scored. It was a three-point game when they came to Brooklyn on December 1st. The Heat are also off an upset win in Indiana. They’ve covered just once in five previous tries this year when off a win as an underdog. The Nets fortunes are due to change and the same is true for Miami. Play on BROOKLYN

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