This is an 8* on PHOENIX

The Lakers appear lost offensively without Anthony Davis. They still have LeBron James and because of that most are going to expect them to force a Game 7. But we don’t. People have underrated this Suns team all season as their 45-30-2 ATS record is second best in the whole league. The Lakers’ ATS record of 33-44-1 is among the five worst in basketball. The Lakers scored a season-low 85 points in Game 5 and trailed by 30 at halftime. While it’s reasonable to assume things will be closer in Game 6, which is in LA, we don’t think the Lakers can make up the entire gap we saw in the last game. That’s even if Davis plays, which is up to the doctors. The Suns defense has been great since the start of the second half of Game 4 as the Lakers are shooting less than 40 percent. Cameron Payne has really stepped up with Chris Paul playing hurt. Devin Booker is handling the scoring. For LA, James has been settling for threes and not getting to the free throw. His supporting cast simply can’t make up for the loss of Davis. You’re seeing why this was a team that had to win a play-in game just to be part of the playoffs. Take the points. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MEMPHIS

The Grizzlies are facing elimination in Game 5 as the series moves back to Utah. It’s a tall order facing the underdogs as they’ve now got to defeat the team with the best record in the NBA three straight times, including twice on the road. But considering they did win Game 1 here in Salt Lake City, it would be foolish to write Memphis off at this point. We went with them in what turned out to be 112-109 upset in Game 1 and will do the same tonight.  Even though they’ve lost three straight, the Grizzlies have not played poorly by any means in this series. Game 2 was an obvious bounce back situation for the Jazz, but Memphis was still within six in the fourth quarter. The two games at Memphis were both competitive. Game 3 saw the Grizzlies ahead with just over four minutes to go. Game 4 saw them fight back and get as close as two points in the fourth quarter. Take the points tonight. Utah’s three point shooting in the last three games has been excellent, but will cool off. The three point shooting for Memphis should improve from the 28.6% we saw in the last game. The Grizzlies are 24-17 straight up (and 24-15 ATS) on the road in 2020-21. The Jazz are only 3-8 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

Look for the 76ers to finish off the Wizards tonight and to do so in decided fashion. This is just a one sided series as Philadelphia is averaging 125.7 points/game and allowing only 105.3. The last two games were basically over by halftime and ended up being wins of 25 and 29 points. The Wizards have not shot well, which is essentially doom for them as they don’t play very good defense. The teams have met six times this year with Philadelphia now 6-0 straight up. They’ve scored at least 120 points in five of the six wins. Washington has been held under its season average in four of the six losses. Russell Westbrook is hobbled, which makes things even worse for the underdog. Going back to last year, the Sixers have beaten the Wizards eight straight times. They are on a 10-3-1 ATS run as road favorites coming into tonight. Washington has given little indication that they can “hang” and they are 2-10 ATS the last 12 games as a playoff dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland is looking to avoid dropping back to back home games to Denver, which would put them in a 3-1 hole in the series. The Blazers simply have not defended well over the course of the three games, first allowing the Nuggets to shoot better than 50% overall in the two games in Denver and then 52.6% from three (20 of 38) in Game 3. But we like old “zig zag theory” to come through for Game 4 as Portland should bounce back at home. Damian Lillard, after an incredible individual effort in Game 2, made just 5 of 16 three point attempts on Thursday. He still scored 37 points mind you, but the team ended up 14 of 45 from three point land. It was the second game in this series where we saw a pretty massive discrepancy in three point shooting between the two teams. The discrepancy worked out in Portland’s favor when they won Game 1 and it’s only natural to see a swing in their favor for Game 4. Denver won’t have Will Barton active for tonight and that’s on top of missing Jamal Murray. We don’t think Austin Rivers is capable of duplicating his Game 3 effort and the Blazers should move to 9-4 ATS this season when off a loss as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* on NEW YORK

Trailing by double digits at halftime in Game 2, the Knicks appeared to be in grave danger of falling down 0-2 in this series with the Hawks. But they put the clamps down in the second half of that last game, holding Atlanta to just 35 points, and it ended up being a 101-92 New York win. Having lost the first game by only two points, Knicks’ fans probably feel as if they should be up 2-0 in the series. That it was the defense that sparked the second half comeback on Wednesday should not come as any surprise. The Knicks allowed the fewest number of points per game in the league during the regular season. They are also the league’s best ATS team with a cover rate of 65.3%, which is well out in front of everyone else. The fact they’ve covered 9 of their last 11 games as road underdogs comes in handy here as they are taking on a team that’s 11-0 straight up in its last 11 home games. The Knicks have suffered only two losses in their previous seven games and each came by just two points. Therefore, taking the points in Game 3 seems like the best option. Play on NEW YORK

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This is an 8* on MIAMI

The Heat find themselves desperately needing to win Game 3, otherwise this series will be just about over. They lost both games in Milwaukee, the first one being close (109-107 in overtime) and the second one being a blowout (132-98). Given that the Heat are down 0-2, we were a bit surprised to see this line “jump the fence” as the Bucks are now favored. It was record-setting shooting for Milwaukee on Monday as they made 22 three-pointers, the most ever by the franchise in a single playoff game. They scored 46 points in the first quarter, 78 in the first half and were ahead at one point by 36. But now the series heads to Miami and the Heat have yet to shoot well. We think they will tonight in Game 3. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are averaging just 26 points/game - combined. In the regular season, the duo averaged just over 40 points/game. The Bucks were just 20-16 straight up on the road in the regular season as opposed to 26-10 at home. They are 5-10 against the spread coming off a game where they scored at least 130 points. Miami can’t afford to go down 0-3 as no one has ever come back from that series deficit in the history of the NBA. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

The Mavs seized home court advantage by “stealing” Game 1 in LA, 113-103 as six-point underdogs. Luka Doncic scored 31 points and the key was the Clippers, the league’s top three point shooting team, making only 27.5% from behind the arc. Dallas led most of the game and shot well. While most will be thinking “zig zag theory” here, the gap between the teams simply isn’t as wide as the spread suggests. The Clippers have not won a game in 10 days and are just 3-9 ATS their previous 12 games. They’ve lost three of the four games to Dallas this year including the infamous 51-point loss two days after Christmas. All three Mavericks wins have been by 10 or more points. The Clippers have a lot of pressure on them heading into this postseason and we’re not convinced they are capable of living up to the hype. Dallas is a good team that has lost just three times in its last 13 games, one of those the inconsequential final regular season game. Grab the points in this one. Play on DALLAS

This is an 8* on MIAMI

Both the Heat and Bucks hope for improved shooting in Game 2. From the Heat point of view, that may sound a little strange seeing as they connected on a franchise record 20 three-pointers in Game 1. But they were just 32.7% from the floor inside the arc and both Bam Adebayo (4 of 15) and Jimmy Butler (4 of 22) were not sharp. Miami was our 10* Game of the Month in Game 1, so we were quite happy with the final result. We’ll take them again here as they never trailed by more than eight points on Saturday and there’s no reason to believe they will again tonight. Remember that they eliminated the Bucks from last year’s playoffs. They seem to know how to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was only 10 of 27 in Game 1. The Heat are 16-5 ATS their previous 21 playoff games including 5-0 ATS in the first round. They’ve won 8 of their last 11 overall and while two of the losses were to Milwaukee, one of them didn’t matter and the other went to overtime. The Bucks are now 1-7 ATS their last eight games. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MEMPHIS

Not many are giving Memphis a chance in Game 1, let alone the series. But coming off two wins in the first ever play-in tournament, maybe they should. The Grizzlies’ narrow wins over San Antonio and Golden State are a little misleading in the sense they led most of the way in both games. Not saying it’s going to be a wire to wire win here in Salt Lake City, but we do like the Grizzlies to keep it close. It will be interesting to observe the “rest vs. rust” for the Jazz, who have not played in a week. The fact Memphis had to win twice to get here isn’t that big of a disadvantage as teams normally play more than twice in a six day span. Of the three times these teams played in the regular season, two were decided by four points or less. The exception was the second game, which was a back to back on the road. Utah has had three or more days rest for only one game all season and they didn’t cover the spread in it. Memphis is 23-14 ATS in road games and is a top six team defensively in points per possessions allowed. Grab the points. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Milwaukee will obviously be motivated based on last year’s playoff exit at the hands of Miami. But the Bucks sure chose a tough potential path to make it to the NBA Finals. They may have to go through the Heat, Nets and Sixers to get there. They’ve infamously flamed out of the playoffs earlier than expected the last two years. There’s a lot of pressure on star player Giannis Antetokounmpo coming into this series. The Heat are once again peaking at the right time. They won 12 of their final 16 regular season games to move up to the six seed. Yes, one of the losses did come to the Bucks. But now it’s the playoffs and that’s what this team (meaning the Heat) are built for. They have a top 10 defense and held Milwaukee to 32.7% shooting on three-point attempts in last year’s series. They also have a blueprint to stop Giannis. Eric Spoelstra really outcoached Mike Budenholzer last year. Miami is 15-5 ATS L20 playoff games. The reason they got off to the slow start this year was likely to do to such a short period of time off between seasons. Jimmy Butler’s numbers ended up being here this year compared to last. He and Bam Adebayo are the keys, but we also think some of the Heat’s perimeter shooters are going to knock down more threes than usual. Tyler Herro has been cold since returning from injury. That can change in a hurry. The Bucks have only covered one of their last seven games. Play on MIAMI

This is an 8* on GOLDEN STATE

This is too many points for Golden State. Not only have they won six in a row, they’ve covered six straight as well. The Lakers have the worst ATS record among playoff teams (31-40-1). They aren’t going to just automatically “gel” now that LeBron and Davis are back. James is still hobbled by his injured ankle. Not hobbled is Steph Curry. He went for 46 in the last game and is #1 in the league in scoring. Over his past 24 games, Curry has scored 30 or more 21 times while averaging 36.9 points. HIs shooting alone can propel the Warriors to victory here. The five-game win streak by the Lakers includes two wins by two points. They are off a 110-98 win at New Orleans on the season’s final day. Bad news: the Lakers are 6-15 ATS off a double digit win this year. They are only 2-12 ATS after their last 14 straight up wins. We’re grabbing the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Each has two games left in the regular season, but this may not be the last time the Bucks run into the Heat. There’s a chance these two teams could be first round playoff opponents. Milwaukee will finish in the top three, maybe as high as second depending on what the Nets do this weekend. Miami can finish anywhere from fourth to sixth depending on the next two games. What we do know is the Heat would much rather finish in the top five, and match up with either the Hawks or Knicks, as opposed to finishing sixth and facing either the Bucks or Nets. Miami seems to be peaking at the right time as they’ve won four in a row and seven of eight. Their last win was against the East’s #1 seed, Philadelphia, whom they held to 94 points. Remember that the Heat peaked at the right time last year and made it all the way to the NBA Finals, a run that included them eliminating the Bucks from the postseason. The teams haven’t met since December when Miami was in a lot rougher shape. Milwaukee is off a big 142-133 win at Indiana Thursday. They are 4-10 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more points in their last game. Also, in four of their past five games, the Bucks have surrendered at least 133 points. That’s pretty bad. Grab the points. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

There’s still one spot in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament up for grabs. It will likely go to Washington. All the Wizards need to do is beat Cleveland tonight and the spot is theirs. They have a two-game lead over Chicago with two games to play. Beating the Cavaliers should not be difficult. The Cavs are one of the worst teams in the league and are coming off a rare win. Before defeating Boston 102-94 two days ago, Cleveland had lost 11 in a row. Seven of those losses were by double digits and only two were by less than nine. The only teams in the league with a worse point differential (than the Cavs) are Orlando and Oklahoma City. Washington let one slip away in Atlanta Wednesday, so they should come out angry. Even without Bradley Beal, the Wizards averaged 120 points/game in the two losses to the Hawks. Scoring shouldn’t be an issue here either. Washington is 26-12 ATS after scoring 115 or more points in their last game and they finished with 116 on Wednesday. Since April 12th, the Wizards are 13-5 and every loss was by four points or less, three of them by one point. So they are one of the hottest teams in the league over the last month. On the road, Cleveland does not even average 100 points/game and they are 10-24 ATS. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE

The Clippers, who have gone Under the total in nine consecutive games, are just 5-4 straight up during the same stretch. They did defeat undermanned Toronto 115-96 on Tuesday, but look for the Hornets to be a taller order on Thursday. Playing at home, Charlotte will be looking to cement its status as a top eight team in the Eastern Conference. Finishing in the top eight should be the Hornets goal at this point as they’d only have to win once to escape the play-in round and would also get a mea culpa (second game) if they were to lose their first play-in game. The Clippers are pretty much locked into a top four seed out West and don’t have a ton to play for in the next three games, all of which will be on the road. This is the Hornets’ last regular season home game, so expect there to be some level of motivation, or at least more motivation than the Clippers will have. Charlotte has lost two in a row and three of four - all those games coming at home. Not saying they’re going to win tonight, but taking the points is the correct call. Play on CHARLOTTE

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks beat the Wizards Monday, 125-124, but did not cover the number (-8). It was an interesting game in that the Wizards led 62-61 at halftime, but then Atlanta came storming out of the break to take a 17 point lead after three quarters. But the fourth belonged to Washington as they outscored the Hawks 45-29. Still, Atlanta won despite shooting only 33.3 percent from three (compared to 50% for Washington). The number is a little bit shorter for tonight’s rematch and we will lay the points in this one as Washington isn’t liable to shoot the ball as well as they did Monday. Bradley Beal, who is the NBA’s second leading scorer, has again been ruled out. That the Wizards scored 124 without him on Monday was a surprise. Atlanta has won four of five and is trying to lock down home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. They are 22-11 SU at home this season, so home court advantage is important to them. Monday was their eighth straight win here. They are 14-2 ATS L16 as a home favorite. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

This is a really important game in the race for the six seed in the Eastern Conference. Miami has a two-game lead over Boston after beating them (the Celtics) on Sunday 130-124 here in Beantown. The six seed, as a reminder, avoids the play-in tournament. So it’s very significant to finish in the top six in your conference. The Heat have been the hotter team of late with wins in 9 of their last 12 games. The Celtics have dropped six of nine and actually trailed by 30 points in one of those three victories. We’re going with Miami to make it two in a row in Boston tonight on TNT. The Heat led by 26 at halftime Sunday after shooting 65 percent. Boston got some really bad news yesterday when it was announced that Jaylen Brown, who is having a career year, is done for the season because of a wrist injury. Before getting beaten by the Heat 48 hours ago, the Celtics lost by 22 at Chicago. They’ve now used 34 different starting lineups this season, fourth most in the league, and there’s just not a lot of positives for this team right now. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

The Pelicans desperately need to win Sunday. They are two back of San Antonio, who lost yesterday, for 10th place and the last play-in spot. They’ll head to a place the fans know well, Charlotte, as that’s the franchise’s former home. Neither Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram will make the trip though as both are injured at the most inopportune time. But without either, New Orleans almost defeated Philadelphia on Friday. They lost that game by only two. Charlotte doesn’t scare us as they too have an injury-depleted roster. The Hornets have won back to back games only one time since April 10th. They are off a win over Orlando on Friday. New Orleans hasn’t dropped consecutive games since a four-game losing streak in mid-April. They are 4-0 ATS off a loss since then. They are 21-9 ATS vs. the Hornets and won the last two times they’ve come to Charlotte. The Hornets are 5-11 ATS their last 16 games. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS its last five road games and 4-0 ATS its last four as an underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on ORLANDO

Minnesota laying seven points on the road seems a bit excessive. They’ve won only eight times on the road all season and have the third worst overall win percentage in the entire NBA. We know the Magic have been struggling recently, but they are still a game better than the Timberwolves. And recent Orlando efforts - except the one vs. Boston - have been competitive. They beat Memphis and Detroit last weekend and were neck and neck with Charlotte most of the way Friday. In January, they rallied from a 16-point halftime deficit to win 97-96 at Minnesota. This will be only the fourth time the T’wolves have been favored to win a road game in 2020-21. They are 2-1 SU/ATS in the other three, but the scoring margin is just +2.0 PPG. Play on ORLANDO

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Both teams won last night. San Antonio got a much needed win in Sacramento, 113-104, ending a five-game losing streak in the process. Portland won for the sixth time in seven games, beating the Lakers 106-101, but did not cover the spread. We think the Blazers will cover Saturday night as they continue their pursuit of a top six spot in the Western Conference. The win over the Lakers did help as it moved them a game ahead. The difference between finishing sixth and seventh is huge because of the new play-in round. The Spurs can only hope for a play-in round appearance as they are 10th, 2.5 games up on New Orleans. (Ten teams make the playoffs, including the play-in round). The best San Antonio can probably hope for is 8th, but that’s still the play-in round and honestly they don’t want to face the Lakers or Blazers in that situation. (Although the winner of the 7th vs. 8th place game is guaranteed a first round playoff series). But the bottom line is Portland is 7-1 ATS its last eight vs. teams with losing records and going to stop an 0-5 ATS skid as home favorites. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

The Knicks have been so successful ATS that they’ve even caught the eye of “mainstream” outlets like ESPN. Coming into tonight’s game with Phoenix, New York has gone 43-23 against the spread this season, a cover rate of 65.1%. Per the ESPN report, only two other teams in the past 30 years have covered 65% of their games in a given season. That’s pretty good for a team that opened the year tied with Cleveland and Detroit as the biggest long-shot to win the NBA Finals (500-1!). But now that they’re getting this kind of recognition, it’s probably a choice time to start fading. Just 48 hours ago, the Knicks got their doors blown off in Denver 113-97, a bad call by us. But we’ve learned our lesson and now are going to fade as the Knicks’ toughest road trip of the season continues tonight in the desert. The Suns have been just as surprising as the Knicks this year, maybe even moreso, as they have the league’s second best overall record. After a shocking 32-point loss to Atlanta on Wednesday, they should be surly. The Suns have won and covered all five matchups with the Knicks the past three seasons including a 118-110 win in Madison Square Garden last month. That ended what was a nine-game Knicks win streak at the time. Phoenix has been great off a loss this year, going 14-4 ATS, so lay the points with confidence. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on the LAKERS

Betting either the Lakers or the Clippers recently has been hazardous to one’s bankroll. The Lakers are just 1-7 ATS their last eight games, though they did just upset Denver - as a 3.5 point underdog - on Monday. They did so without the services of LeBron James. James returned on 4/30 against the Kings and also played on 5/2 vs Toronto, but those were both Lakers’ losses. They are 2-6 SU those last eight games and have fallen into a tie with Dallas for 5th in the West. Seventh place Portland is lurking just a half game back, so there’s a chance the defending NBA champs could end up in the play-in round. James is not playing tonight, but we’ll still take the points with the Lakers as the league’s “other LA team” has not covered in five straight and should not be laying so many points. The Clippers have lost three of the last five games outright and the two wins - both of which were against non-playoff teams - were by just five points each. They trailed much of the way against Toronto in their last game. Remember the Lakers still have Anthony Davis and are #1 in the league in points allowed per possession. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is a 10* on the KNICKS

Two hot teams meet in Denver Wednesday night. The Knicks are the hotter of the two and arguably the hottest team in the league currently. They’ve won 12 of the last 13 games, including three straight by double digits. Equally as impressive is the fact they are on a 15-1 ATS run! That goes back to April 3rd. Nine of the last 10 wins have been by 10 or more points. The only game the Knicks have lost since April 8th was to Phoenix, who has the best record in the NBA. New York will visit Phoenix on Friday. But first they are in Denver. Tonight is the beginning of a tough four-game stretch, all of them on the road. In addition to visits to Denver and Phoenix, the Knicks go to LA to face the Lakers and the Clippers. We’re taking the points here as they just won in Memphis 118-104 as a 3.5-point dog Monday. That same night, Denver lost to the Lakers 93-89 in a game where LeBron James rested. The Nuggets had won five in a row and nine of 10 before suffering that loss, but remember PG Jamal Murray is out for the year and that absence will be felt moving forward. The Knicks have covered two-thirds of their games this season, easily the best ATS record in the league. Denver lost another guard (PJ Dozier) to injury on Monday. Play on NEW YORK

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Minnesota is on a season-best four game win streak. Two of the wins were against Utah. Look for that streak to end tonight though against a somewhat desperate Pelicans team. New Orleans is on a 3-0 ATS run with one SU loss coming by two points. They are 11th in the West, needing to make up a three-game gap to catch Golden State for the final play-in spot. Golden State is who Minnesota just beat, so that helped the Pelicans out. It’s impressive that New Orleans won so comfortably in Oklahoma City as they only shot 5 of 29 from behind the three-point arc. They’ll certainly be better tonight against a T’wolves team that lets opponents hit over 39% from three. Minnesota is still just 2-13 straight up when coming off an upset win as an underdog. The Pelicans have double revenge as they are one of two teams that Minnesota has multiple wins against this season without a loss. New Orleans' last two losses were by two points each, so they could easily be on a five game win streak heading into tonight. This is pretty close to “must win” and they are 27-11 ATS their last 38 road games vs. teams with a home win percentage of .400 or worse. Minnesota is 12-19 at home. Play on NEW ORLEANS

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Second time in a row we’re going with Portland. They won big for us in their last game, a 130-109 pummeling of Memphis. They were up 33 at one point. It was the Blazers second straight emphatic victory. They also beat Indiana 133-112 earlier in the week. So coming off back-to-back 130+ point efforts, they look to win their third straight game tonight in Brooklyn. The Nets won’t have Durant or Harden and Irving is listed as questionable. They hope to have Irving back, but it’s a gametime decision. The Nets are 4-0 straight up and against the spread their last four games, but Portland comes in more desperate for a win. They are now one game back of Dallas for the six seed and finishing sixth or higher means you avoid the play-in round. Brooklyn is first out East, even though Philadelphia and Milwaukee have better scoring differentials. The Blazers are a good road team (18-12) and can easily beat the Nets when they don’t have two, or maybe all three of their stars. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

For the first time in 2020-21, Minnesota finds itself on a three-game win streak. The only previous time they’d even won two in a row was when they started the season 2-0. Oddly, two of those wins came against the Jazz, the team with the best record in all of basketball. They are 3-0 vs. Utah this season and just 16-44 against everyone else. The third straight win came on Tuesday against a Houston team that is simply playing out the string at this point. We don’t see the Timberwolves extending this improbable win streak tonight though as they face a Golden State team that’s off an incredibly embarrassing 30 point defeat at the hands of Dallas. The Warriors trailed 62-29 at halftime despite the Mavs coming into the game short-handed and it was at HOME. The loss leaves them 31-31 on the year and clinging on to the last available spot for the play-in round. We expect a big time bounce back performance here from Steph Curry as Golden State has already beaten Minnesota by double digits two different times this year. Coach Steve Kerr ripped his team pretty bad after the Dallas loss and said every game from here on out needed to be treated like a playoff game. Lay a really short number in this one. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Big-time revenge game for the Blazers tonight. They’ve lost twice at home to Memphis in the last seven days. This time they face the Grizzlies on the road. They do so on the second night of a back to back. Last night probably could not have gone any better as they boat raced Indiana 133-112. They were 50 of 106 from the field and 20 of 35 from three-point range and took control by outscoring the Pacers 40-16 in the third. They were up 35 at that point, which means key players were able to rest. This race for sixth in the West has gotten quite interesting as Portland lost five in a row, four of them at home, before last night’s win. But they are still 1.5 games up on the Grizzlies and 17-12 SU/ATS on the road. Memphis has a losing home record (13-16 SU) and was blown out in Denver two nights ago. This is their first home game in two weeks. A 24-point loss is not the way you want to end a seven-game road trip and look for that to have an effect on the Grizzlies tonight. They shot really well both games in Portland, but were 4 of 32 from behind the arc in Denver. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE 

Golden State should really “give it” to Sacramento Sunday night. We had the Warriors in a most impressive 118-97 win against Denver on Friday night. That was their sixth win in the last eight games as they continue their push to the playoffs. The two losses were both close games on the road. All six wins have been nine points or greater and this matchup should continue the trend as the Kings won’t have De’Aaron Fox, who is out due to COVID. The Warriors are winning by an average of 9.5 points in the games where they were favored this year. Steph Curry has scored 30 or more in 12 of his last 13 games and should exceed that number again tonight seeing as the Kings are the worst defensive team in the league. The Kings are also 2-10 in their last 12 games with one of the two wins coming earlier this week, by only three points, against last place Minnesota. Seven of those ten losses have been by double digits. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

The Heat’s three-game run (win streak) ended Friday with a 118-113 loss in Atlanta. Now they host Chicago for a couple games. These games will have an effect on the Eastern Conference playoff race as the Heat (31-29) sit in seventh place while the Bulls (25-34) are one game back of 10th, which is where they need to be to make the new play-in round. Although we took them on Thursday and they beat Charlotte 108-91, the Bulls aren’t a very good team. Leading scorer Zach LaVine is still out indefinitely (quarantine). The Bulls last road game resulted in a 16-point loss at Cleveland, who isn’t very good. Miami wasn’t very good defensively on Friday, allowing a shorthanded Hawks team to shoot 53.8% and make 15 threes. They were also outrebounded and -13 in fast break points. They can’t afford to lose a second straight game to a team playing without its leading scorer. Several key players had bad shooting nights in Atlanta and we expect them to bounce back and deliver at home. The Heat won by 11 in Chicago last month. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Denver enters Friday at 38-20 overall and in 4th place in the Western Conference. They’ve won four straight, but the last two have been by a total of three points and they didn’t cover either of those. Golden State is 29-30 SU this season and coming off a heartbreaking 118-114 loss at Washington Wednesday night. The Warriors are 10th in the West, just barely holding on to a spot for the play-in tournament. So this game would seem more important to them and they’ve got to love the fact it’s at home. Steph Curry and the boys haven’t played a home game in 11 days. The last one was against the Nuggets and they won 116-107 as 5.5-point underdogs. They just completed a successful road trip (3-2) and are 6-3 SU the last nine games overall. In that last meeting, Denver lost point guard Jamal Murray for the season to an ACL injury. We’re surprised they’ve done so well without him. Steph Curry had 53 points in that last meeting and after having an 11-game run of 30+ point games snapped Wednesday, look for him to have another big game tonight. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS the last 7 games vs. Denver. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* on CHICAGO

The race for the four play-in spots in the NBA’s Eastern Conference is intensifying. Washington has gotten hot and there are four teams separated by three games gunning for the last two playoff berths. Charlotte is a little bit ahead of those four teams, in eighth place, but fading rapidly as a rash of injuries have hurt literally and figuratively. Just 1-5 the last six games, the Hornets are without LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk and Gordon Hayward. Without three of their top five scorers, the team has failed to even hit 100 points in five of the past 11 games. Really, we didn’t think this team was all that great BEFORE the injuries and this slide should continue tonight in Chicago. The Bulls are desperate after losing in Cleveland last night 121-105. They are one game back of 10th place as they’ve won just twice in their past eight games. Their leading scorer (Zach LaVine) is also out, but they are still a better offensive team than Charlotte. They also held Cleveland and Boston both to just 96 points in recent wins. We just see Charlotte as a team in a free-fall and it's unlikely to end with so many key players still missing. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on GSW

Thanks to the latest virtuoso effort from Steph Curry (49 points), the Warriors were able to defeat Philadelphia Monday night 107-96. They are now 3-1 on the current road trip with Curry averaging 42.8 points/game on 55 percent shooting. Their next game is tonight in the Nation’s Capital against a Wizards team that has been surging of late with five straight wins. That win streak has them tied with Chicago for 10th place, the last available spot for the play-in round of the postseason. Golden State, who has won five of its last six overall, is 9th in the West. So this one is every bit as important to them. We don’t see how you can fade Curry right now, especially in this matchup against the team that gives up the second highest number of points/game in the league. The Warriors have revenge for a three-point home loss 12 days ago. The Wizards have a losing record at home. Golden State is 16-6 SU and 14-8 ATS when favored this season. Washington did snap Utah’s long home win streak earlier in the month, but their last four wins have all been against non-playoff teams, the last two vs. Detroit and Oklahoma City, who might be the worst teams in each conference. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

Dallas is not only off a 117-109 loss to the Knicks (were 6.5-point favorites), but has also failed to cover four in a row. They have a golden opportunity to turn things around Sunday when they host the Kings, losers of nine straight. Sacramento was at least competitive in its last game, but they still lost by eight in Phoenix. They hadn’t covered in five straight before that. No Marvin Bagley III for tonight either. Very bad defense has been the Kings problem all season. They give up the most points per game in the league. This feels like it should be a big offensive night for Dallas, who has struggled at home, They badly want to move up into sixth place in the Western Conference and thus avoid the play-in round for the postseason. They are two games back of sixth place Portland right now. Off their last 10 straight up losses, the Mavs are 7-3 against the spread. This is a mismatch and the Kings haven’t stayed within seven points of anybody in their past six games. Play on DALLAS

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

With just one month left in the regular season, Portland and San Antonio are both struggling at an inopportune time. The Trail Blazers have lost four of five, the most recent loss coming by one point to Boston on Tuesday. The Spurs have lost six of eight and were beaten 117-112 by Toronto on Wednesday. In sixth place as opposed to 10th, the Blazers are in a much better spot than San Antonio right now and we like them to be the ones to bounce back tonight. Compared to a lot of the teams Portland has faced recently, the Spurs are a weak opponent. The Blazers’ SU record vs. sub .500 teams this year is 23-7 and that includes 5-0 in the second half. The Blazers also have a winning record on the road. San Antonio is 12-17 SU at home and is coming off a week-long road trip. They have to head back out on the road for two more (starting tomorrow) and thus will have “less in the tank” here compared to the Blazers, who have been off for two days. Play on PORTLAND

This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Both the Knicks and Pelicans are on three-game win streaks coming into tonight. Only one of those streaks can obviously continue and we think it will be the Pelicans. They’ve beaten Philadelphia, Cleveland and Sacramento. The Knicks have beaten Memphis, Toronto and the Lakers. New York is 6-0 ATS its last six games, but those last three wins all came at home. The Knicks are 8th in the East, but could move as high as 6th with a win here tonight. New Orleans is more desperate as they are a game behind Golden State for the last play-in spot. We expect them to assert themselves here as they led Sacramento by as much as 23 the other night before letting things get a little too close for comfort at the end. Zion Williamson has averaged 35 points/game during the win streak. But the big key here is the Knicks’ 0-5 record, both straight up and against the spread, when they are on a three-game win streak this season. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Over their past two games, the Suns have scored a total of 260 points. They had 81 by halftime last night against Houston as they set a new NBA record with 18 threes made in a single half. Don’t be fooled by that final score from last night either. While it ended up being 126-120, Phoenix was up big much of the way. Tonight they play host to Miami and covering a large spread isn’t something they’ll have to concern themselves with. Winners of nine of their last ten games, the Suns can get within one game of Utah for first place in the West. They are 16-6 ATS this season vs. teams that have a winning record. Miami is 6-1 its last seven games, but isn’t in Phoenix’s league. The Heat lost by 10 at home to the Suns last month and also lost by seven to them in last season’s bubble. They are 6-14 straight up and 7-13 against the spread vs. teams that have a winning record. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Rough situation here for Cleveland, who is playing without rest against a New Orleans team that lambasted them 116-82 last month. Here at home, the Cavs gave up 135 points last night to a Toronto team that was severely short-handed. Gary Trent Jr scored 44 for the Raptors! So Zion Williamson has to be “licking his chops” heading into this Sunday night matchup as the Pelicans look to make it two straight wins. On Friday, they defeated Philadelphia 101-94 as a five-point home underdog. Now they are a road favorite, a big difference, but they also go from facing one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference to one of the worst. New Orleans really needs to win this game as they are 1.5 games behind Golden State (who was victorious last night) for the last playoff spot. There were two times earlier in the season where the Cavs suffered an outright loss when they were favored to win. After both of those losses, they failed to cover the next game. They’re in that situation again here, a situation they are 3-7 ATS L10. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO

Back on Thursday, Utah avoided what would have been the first three-game losing streak of the season, defeating Portland 122-103. But they had to rally from a halftime deficit to do so. They used a 40-19 third quarter to seize control of the game and that was “all she wrote” as the Jazz won their 23rd straight home game. They’re at home again tonight and facing a Kings team that has lost five in a row. But predictably the number is large. Too large in our eyes as Sacramento hasn’t gotten this many points in a game all season. What’s strange about the Kings’ five game losing streak is that they were favored on three different occasions. They’d also WON five in a row before losing five straight. They’ve gone off as the favorite in six of their last ten games. The four times they’ve been underdogs, they are 3-1 ATS with two outright wins and one of the losses coming by just one point. We think the team comes in with a positive mindset after a poor effort at home vs. Detroit the other night. Utah is only 2-6 ATS coming off their previous eight wins by 10 or more points. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

This is the kind of game where everyone just assumes the Celtics will “roll,” but doing that is often easier said than done. Minnesota may not have a very good record, but they’ve covered five of the last eight games and the last one (which they did NOT cover) was only a four-point loss. Boston is off a two-point win against the Knicks, but has not been scoring a ton recently and failed to cover four of its last six games. They finished with just 101 points against the Knicks after being held to 96 in a loss to the Sixers. That’s just not enough offense to make us think they can cover this large spread. This Celtics team hasn’t been above .500 in almost a month and basically lives off reputation. They were down seven in the fourth quarter to the Knicks. Minnesota will be looking for a win here as it has not prevailed in Beantown since 2005. Nor have they beaten the Celtics anywhere going back to 2016. That’ll be on the minds of players tonight and Karl-Anthony Towns, who had 32-12 against Indiana, should keep them in this one. Grab the points. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

We rode the Hawks to an easy 123-106 win over New Orleans last night and will stick with them again tonight as they host Memphis in a matchup where both teams are in the second night of a back to back. The Grizzlies were also double digit winners Tuesday, although they had to go on the road to defeat 124-112. Winning back to back nights on the road is pretty tough in this league. The Grizzlies know this all too well as they are 0-3 straight up and against the spread when playing for a second straight night on the road. Those three losses have come by an average of 19 points/game. They’ve lost by 16 at Utah (3/27), 23 at Phoenix (3/15) and, 18 at Indiana (2/2). Twice they were coming in off a win. It doesn’t help them that Atlanta has won and covered seven consecutive home games, a streak that predates the All-Star Break. The Hawks have moved into 4th place in the Eastern Conference with a 4-0 (both SU/ATS) April where they’ve averaged 125 points/game. Memphis is 3-0 SU/ATS in April, but that inability to win back to back road games looms large in handicapping this one. The Hawks took the first meeting 122-112 in Memphis back in December. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

These young Hawks are starting to spread their wings as they’ve won three straight, moving them into a fourth place tie with Miami in the East. Each of the three wins have seen Atlanta cover the spread. Only one of the three was a blowout, but it happened to be against the team they’ll face again tonight. New Orleans was without four starters for that game and both Zion Willamson/Brandon Ingram are listed as questionable for tonight’s rematch. We did take the Pelicans on Sunday, when they got Lonzo Ball and Steven Adams back, but they were also facing a horrible Houston team. The Pelicans don’t defend well (28th in points allowed per possession) and are 0-6 ATS the L6 meetings with Atlanta. The Hawks have injuries too, but showed off their depth in Sunday’s 117-111 win over Golden State where they were +36 in bench scoring. Trae Young didn’t even play in the blowout win over these Pelicans last week. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS their last six home games. Play on ATLANTA

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This is an 8* on CLEVELAND

Cleveland is a bit of a “tough sell” right now with five straight losses coming into tonight. Four of those losses have been by at least 12 points. Not a ton of offense to speak of either as they’ve gone seven games in a row without scoring more than 105. But at least they got into triple digits on Saturday (scored 101) after failing to do so each of the previous four games. The Cavs are in San Antonio tonight and we think this is a game that they can cover. Why? Well, the Spurs have dropped seven of their last nine games. They are coming off back to back losses in overtime, first to Atlanta (a 2OT game) and then to Indiana. Both losses came in San Antonio. This could end up being the most points the Spurs end up laying in any game all season. We think it’s too many. They are 6-10 ATS as home favorites and have been outscored in those games. They were favored in each of the last two games, including by 7 against Indiana, who was missing four key players and still found a way to score 139. That was the fourth time in the last seven games, all at home, that the Spurs gave up 132 points. Cleveland has a chance to win here. Take the points. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on NO

We can’t believe this line is so low. Houston has lost 25 of its last 27 games. Now we know New Orleans, coming off back to back losses, has major injury concerns right now. Three starters, one of them Zion Williamson, missed both games of the back to back against Atlanta and Orlando. But no matter who is in the starting five Sunday night, we believe the Pelicans will be able to easily defeat the Rockets. For the record, Williamson is listed as questionable as is Brandon Ingram. Houston has not even been close in most of these losses. The last three have all been by 10 or more, meaning 15 of their last 19 games have resulted in a double digit defeat. The Rockets are 4-19 ATS at home this season. Still in the playoff race, New Orleans can’t afford to lose this game. We think they’ll pull the necessary pieces together to get the comfortable ‘W.’ Lay the points. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee looked darn impressive last night in their decisive 127-109 win in Portland. Giannis Antetokounmpo, in particular, shined. He shot 85% and scored 47 points. From inside the 3-point arc, Antetokounmpo was 18 for 18, tying a record set by Wilt Chamberlain. The Bucks were up by 24 in the third quarter and thus were able to coast the rest of the way. That’s important when playing the second night of a back to back like they are here. Sacramento should not provide much resistance. The Kings allow the most points per possession in the league, so it should be another big offensive night from “The Greek Freak” and company. The Bucks beat the Kings by 13 in late February, 128-115 and in doing so put up 70 points by halftime. It should be mentioned that Sacramento is also in the second night of a back to back here. Only they lost at home to the Lakers last night by 21! That’s just awful when you consider LA doesn’t have either LeBron James or Anthony Davis right now. The Bucks have the best point differential among Eastern Conference teams and third best overall. We like them to roll to a 10th straight victory over the Kings, who are 0-6 ATS this season coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on PHILLY

Philadelphia has dropped two in a row, but they’ve got an ideal matchup here that should allow them to bounce back in a major way. Cleveland is the opposition as the Sixers wrap up a six-game road trip, which they began with three straight wins. The losses were to the Clippers and Nuggets and there is no shame losing to those teams, especially on the road. Cleveland has the worst point differential in the league, so there would be a lot of shame if the Sixers were to lose tonight. Fortunately, we know the Cavaliers are 7-19 against the spread against winning teams. They are also 0-4 ATS after being held to 85 points or less and are coming off a horrible 114-75 loss at Utah. That was the Cavs’ third straight loss and they were held under 100 points in all of them. The clincher here is that Philly is actually 0-2 vs. Cleveland this season, so they are going to be out for revenge. Having fallen behind Brooklyn in the race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, the 76ers will have no mercy for their opponents tonight. They improve to 5-0-1 ATS their last six games as a road favorite. Play on PHILADELPHIA

This is an 8* on SACRAMENTO

These teams just played Monday. We had the Kings, who won “going away,” 132-115 as 2.5-point underdogs. That was their fifth straight win, a season-high. This win streak has also seen the Kings go 4-1 against the spread. We are presented with the same spread tonight and won’t be deviating from the previous script. San Antonio has certainly struggled of late. They’ve lost five of six overall and are just 12-17 vs. the Western Conference this season. (The only win in the last six games was against Chicago). During its five game win streak, Sacramento is averaging 120.4 points/game while giving up only 109.0. They’ve gone over 130 in two of the previous three, their two highest scoring games of the season.. Every starter scored at least 14 on Monday. When the Kings are off an upset win as an underdog (as they are here), there tends to be a no letdown as they’ve gone 8-4 ATS the next game. The Spurs have a losing SU record at home (11-14) this season and going back further, they have covered just 12 of 40 as home favorites. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

The Hawks very well may be tiring as they’re about to play their sixth straight game on the road. After tonight, they’ve got two more before the trip ends. They’ve lost three of last three four and Monday’s 126-102 loss in Denver was the worst showing yet. We don’t like Atlanta’s chances here as they take on a Phoenix team that has been playing as well as any in the league over the last month or so. The Suns have lost only three times this month and are off a 3-1 road trip where the only loss was by one point. Defensively, they’ve been locked in. They just held Charlotte to 97 points in an overtime win on Sunday. Before that, they held Toronto to 100 points. The Suns are better at both ends of the floor, are at home and the Hawks are road-weary. We see no reason why NOT to lay the points. Play on PHOENIX

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This is an 8* on SACRAMENTO

Sacramento looks for a season-high fifth straight win tonight as they invade San Antonio. The Spurs had LOST four in a row before they easily defeated the Bulls on Saturday night. A huge first half (led by 26 at the break) was critical to San Antonio’s success there. We see no such fast start taking place tonight. The Spurs are far too inconsistent to be counted on to play well in back to back games. They actually have a losing record at home. The Kings are 6-1 since St. Patrick’s Day, which has them thinking playoffs for the first time in over a decade. Desperate to end the NBA’s longest postseason drought, we don’t see this team throwing in the towel any time soon. While three of their last six wins have been by two points, we don’t care how many the underdog wins by tonight. Grab the points. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is an 8* on PHOENIX

We’re all out of answers when it comes to the question of “how” the Hornets are in 4th place in the East. Picked to finish near the bottom of the conference, Charlotte has won three straight to get to 23-21. They’ve beaten San Antonio, Houston and Miami during the win streak, but now things get much harder when Phoenix comes to town. The Suns have been great this year. They are second in the West, ahead of the Clippers and Lakers, and have lost only three times in the last month while winning 10. We really like the Suns to “stick it” to the Hornets this afternoon. Even though they didn’t make a basket in the final 3:50 Friday, Phoenix still was able to win vs. Toronto. Remember that Charlotte doesn’t have LaMelo Bell (injured), which is a huge loss. It’s unlikely Malik Monk is going to offer a repeat of his 32-point performance we saw Friday vs. Miami. The Hornets are just 7-13 SU/ATS vs. .500 or better teams. The Suns are 15-4 SU/ATS. Play on PHOENIX

This is an 8* on LA CLIPPERS

The Sixers lead the Eastern Conference with a 32-13 overall record, however both the Nets and Bucks are hot on their heels (within 2.5 games). The Clippers’ 30-16 overall record has them third in the Western Conference and four games back of first place Utah. Both teams come into Saturday having won four in a row. After a furious rally to beat Atlanta to start the week, LA swept two games in San Antonio, first using an awesome offensive display (scored 134 in the first game) then an awesome defensive display (allowed 85 in the second game). That makes it three double digit wins in the last four games. Philly has been fortunate to face Golden State (no Curry) and the Lakers (no LeBron or Anthony Davis) on their current road trip. They are still without Joel Embiid. The Clippers may not have Kawhi Leonard tonight, but we still like them at home. They ended up not having Leonard when we took them Thursday in San Antonio. Paul George showed he can carry the load as he had 24 points and 13 rebounds. The Sixers are a dominant home team, but only 13-9 on the road and that’s with three straight wins. Play on LA CLIPPERS.

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

Dallas has looked good of late in winning 14 of their last 19 contests. We had them Wednesday as they took out Minnesota 128-108. That was an easy cover as 8.5-point favorites and this should be as well as the Mavs are laying a short number at home to Indiana. The Pacers have struggled recently, losing 9 of 14 and they are an ugly 3-10-1 ATS in those games. They did beat Detroit 116-111 on Wednesday, but that is not something to brag about. They failed to cover the 7.5 point spread in that one. It’s difficult to see the Pacers keeping up with the Mavs tonight. Dallas has scored 260 points in its last two games. They are one blown lead in Portland away from coming into this game on a four-game win streak. Kristaps Porzingis looked dominant vs. the Timberwolves and Luka Doncic had another triple double. Indiana has covered only 3 of the last 14 times it’s been an underdog. Dallas is 5-1 ATS its last six home games. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on LAC

The Clippers have strung together three straight victories, the last one coming last night here at the Alamo. They crushed the Spurs 134-101, a game in which they never trailed and were up 12 after the first quarter. It was LA’s 11th win of the season by 20 points or more. With the Lakers reeling right now, there is no excuse for the Clippers to finish any worse than third in the Western Conference and on paper, you’d probably like them over the top two teams (Utah, Phoenix) come playoff time. The Spurs are headed in the opposite direction as last night was their third straight loss. A 24-hour turnaround isn’t going to allow for them to make things much better tonight. Making things even worse is the fact the Clippers are a perfect 7-0 against the spread in the second night of a back to back. They’ve won those seven games this season by an average of 16.4 points per game. Six Clippers scored at least 13 points in last night’s win and the team shot 55% overall. We see no reason why this shouldn’t be another easy win for the road team. Play on LA CLIPPERS

This is an 8* on DALLAS

Dallas has been inconsistent this year, but they have what we consider “a favorable stretch” over the next week or so. A 40-point win in Portland on Sunday showed what the Mavs are capable of doing. They should have won twice in Portland over the weekend, but blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead on Friday and lost 125-119. Had they held on there, they’d be on a three-game win streak coming into this game at Minnesota. The Timberwolves are bad. They have the worst straight up record in the league at 10-33. They’ve lost two in a row and 13 of 16. Karl-Anthony Towns being bothered by a wrist injury doesn’t help matters. Nor does facing Dallas, who is 28-14 ATS at Minnesota their previous 42 visits. The Mavericks are 13-5 overall since Feb 6th with Luka Doncic playing very well of late. Already averaging career highs in both points and assists this season, Doncic has gone for 39 points, 7.3 points and 7.3 assists over his last three games. We look for a big win by the road team. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on CHICAGO

Chicago is a team desperate to make the playoffs this season. In the Eastern Conference, that shouldn’t be that difficult but here we are on March 24th and the Bulls are four games below .500. That’s still good enough for ninth place, which would mean being involved in the play-in scenario, but the Bulls would certainly like to get themselves on “steadier ground” over the next month. Beating a sorry team like Cleveland is imperative in achieving that. The Cavaliers are actually better, record-wise, than three teams in the East. But they have the worst point differential in the entire league. On the road, the Cavs have been terrible with a 5-15 record (SU and ATS) and they’re getting outscored by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Bulls have not yet had a chance to play Cleveland this year and hosting them should mean a very easy win. It was a 25-point home loss on Monday, but that was to the Jazz. Cleveland also lost at home Monday, by 14 to Sacramento. This spread should be much higher considering the Bulls are 17-5 ATS when facing losing teams. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

After losing to Orlando Friday night, Brooklyn should bounce back tonight at home vs. Washington. The Nets actually are seeking double revenge in this matchup after losing twice to the Wizards back in January. Both games saw them blow big leads. With Washington off a shocking upset over Utah, all signs point to a “return to normalcy” Sunday evening. No team allows more points per game than the Wiz. No team scores more points per game than Brooklyn. The Nets can probably name their point total here as the Wizards have allowed an average of 125.6 points over their previous five contests. The Nets are still winners of 14 of the last 16 games (12-4 ATS) and the last time they were off a loss, they bounced back with an 11-point win in San Antonio. This matchup is far more favorable. James Harden has missed 31 of his last 36 three-point attempts. Think he might be “due” to go “off?” There’s no better opponent for him to do so than this one. Play on BROOKLYN

This is a 10* on DENVER

Losses like the one the Bulls had Wednesday night are what could ultimately prevent this team from making the playoffs. Not making the postseason would be pretty bad considering how weak the East is this year and that 10 teams now get in because of the play-in scenario. So the bottom line is that the Bulls aren’t really a force to be reckoned with. Getting outscored 39-19 in the 4th quarter by the Spurs and losing 106-99 snapped a two-game win streak. Now the Bulls hit the road to face a Denver team that’s arguably playing its best basketball of the season. The Nuggets come in having won seven of eight. They’ve won by a combined 40 points in the last two games, beating both Indiana and Charlotte here at home. Chicago is pretty comparable to those teams, tbh, and while the Nuggets are now being asked to lay a larger spread, that shouldn’t be an issue considering they won by six in the Windy City earlier this month. Nikola Jokic had a monster game (39-14-9) against the Bulls, who are just 1-6 ATS their last seven trips to Denver. Play on DENVER

This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

New Orleans has recorded two consecutive blowout wins. The first saw them beat Cleveland 116-82. Given the Cavs stature in the league, you may not be all that impressed by that one. But what about the Pelicans shooting 65% and blitzing the Clippers 135-115 Sunday night? We had the Over in that game and were loving it as NO was up by 33 at one point. Zion Williamson has scored at least 20 points in 17 consecutive games. By the way, the shooting percentage from the Pelicans on Sunday was a new NBA season-high. We like their chances tonight in Portland as they face a Blazers team that’s trending in a different direction right now. Portland lost in Minnesota the other night, which was also the fourth straight game they did not cover the spread. They are only 4-6 SU the L10 games. While the majority of their recent outings have been closely contested affairs, no team in the league has suffered more 20+ point losses. CJ McCollum is set to return tonight, but after a two-month absence, it’ll take awhile for him to return to his “old self.” The Pelicans are looking for revenge as they lost by two at home to the Blazers last month. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Toronto is a better team than Charlotte. They are a bit short-handed right now due to COVID protocol and that is why they are getting points Saturday. Home court doesn’t mean much this season. The Hornets are just 10-8 in home games this year and that’s after a three-point win over a bad Detroit team Thursday. That same night, the Raptors appeared headed for victory as well. They led the Hawks by 15 in the final six minutes, but ended up losing on a buzzer beater. That was their third straight loss and fifth in the last six games. But we’ll go with them to bounce back here against a team they beat twice earlier in the season. Both wins were by just three points, but we’d take that here. It’s fair to say that the Hornets being in the top eight in the conference standings is a MAJOR surprise. It’s not just that they weren’t expected to do much. They’ve also given up more points in 2020-21 than they’ve scored. There have been three previous times this season when the Raptors have been on a three-game losing streak. They’ve responded by going 3-0 SU/ATS in the next game. They are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in this situation the last three years. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver is simply a lot better than Indiana right now. The Pacers only barely scraped by Cleveland last night, winning 114-111 thanks to a fourth quarter comeback. T.J. McConnell set a record with nine first half steals and the Pacers shot 56.6% as a team. Yet they still could only win by three against one of the worst teams in the league. Now, without rest, they are facing a team that just destroyed Milwaukee by 31 points - on the road! The Nuggets now look to make it four straight road wins heading into the All Star Break. They also won in Oklahoma City by 30 and we had them when they snuck by Chicago. There are only four teams in this league that have a better point differential than the Nuggets. Indiana is clearly not one of them. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS their last tries as an underdog and have failed to cover five straight overall. Their starters played heavy minutes last night. They certainly aren’t likely to shoot as well here as they did last night and that means trouble facing a team that has Nikola Jokic and is shooting almost 55% its L3 games. Play on DENVER

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This is an 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Golden State is off a loss and Portland is off a win. But the road team (Golden State) opening as the favorite to win tonight should tell you a lot about this matchup. The Warriors had won three in a row (for the first time this season) before losing to the Lakers Sunday night. Meanwhile, Portland was on a four-game losing streak before beating Charlotte Monday. Injuries have certainly impacted both sides in 2020-21 but it feels as if Portland is hurting more right now with Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum all out. Of course, Golden State doesn’t have Klay Thompson, but Draymond Green will play Wednesday. These teams split a couple of games in Oakland last month, each winning in blowout fashion. Why we like the Warriors is that the Blazers simply cannot be trusted to play good defense. They are third to last in the league in number of points allowed per possession. We “smell” a big game coming from Steph Curry tonight as the Warriors are 8-3 ATS their L11 games as a favorite plus 6-2 ATS their L8 following a SU loss.  Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

So Atlanta has made a coaching change, firing Lloyd Pierce after a very disappointing run where the team lost 11 of its last 15 games. The Hawks now sit 11th in the East, two games out of the 8th and three games back of Miami, the team they’ll face tonight. The Heat are trending in the opposite direction with a 6-0 straight up and against the spread record the last six games. They just beat Atlanta 109-99 on Sunday, which got Pierce fired. Before that, the Heat even beat the Jazz. But despite this recent form, the Heat still have a worse point differential than the Hawks this season. Miami has a losing record in conference play and a 5-14 record when losing the rebounding battle. Atlanta generally rebounds the basketball well. They actually outrebounded Miami Sunday. But Trae Young had a poor shooting night. Look for him to shoot better tonight and the rest of the team to play inspired following the change on the bench. Miami is just 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 as a home favorite. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver should probably be higher than seventh in the West as only four teams in the conference have a scoring differential. The Nuggets haven’t done well in games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring, going 0-6 ATS when the total is 230 points or higher. While the total could close that high again tonight in Chicago, the Nuggets are coming off a 30-point win in Oklahoma City and should easily make it back to back wins. The Bulls are improved, but could only score 97 in a home loss to Phoenix on Friday. Most of their recent victories have been against bad teams. In fact, they are just 4-11 straight up when the opponent is .500 or better. The Bulls were supposed to play against Toronto yesterday, but COVID protocol prevented that game from happening. While this is no longer the second night of a back to back, look for Chicago’s rhythm to be disrupted. There’s too much talent to ignore with this Nuggets team as Jamal Murray is averaging 30.1 points his last nine games and Nikola Jokic just put up his eighth triple double of the season. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on CLIPPERS

It's a heavyweight matchup Sunday afternoon on ABC with the Clippers taking on the Bucks. Both teams are currently trying to chase down the top spot in their respective conferences. In the East, Milwaukee only trails Philadelphia by 1.5 games (after the Sixers lost Saturday) and is eventually going to pass them. We’re not as certain about the Clippers catching the insanely hot Jazz, but being only 3.5 (games) back of Utah right now (given how hot the Jazz have been) isn’t a bad place to be. We’re siding with LA in this one as not only are they 4-2 SU/ATS in the six games they’ve been underdogs in, but the Bucks are short-handed with Jrue Holliday and Jaylen Adams both in COVID protocol and DJ Augustin out for personal reasons. Don’t think they can count on Donte DiVincenzo scoring a career-high 24 points again like he did vs. New Orleans on Thursday. It wasn’t too long ago that Milwaukee lost five in a row. The Clippers are basically at full strength (only missing Patrick Patterson) and had seven players finish in double figures last time out. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

You don’t see the Bucks lose five in a row very often, but that’s exactly what they did in an eight-day span (2/10-2/18) earlier this month. They have since “course-corrected” with three consecutive victories at home, all of them coming against what could objectively be called “bad teams” (Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Minnesota). Those are probably the three worst teams in the West, for the record. New Orleans is fifth from the bottom in that conference, but we’d say they’re also in a different class from the Bucks’ three previous opponents. A thrilling come from behind win on Sunday against the Celtics showed what the Pelicans are capable of doing. Then they prevailed again last night, beating Detroit 128-118. This team can definitely score as they’ve hit the 120 mark in five of their last eight games. That kind of offensive production makes it awfully difficult to cover against them when the spread is this large. The Pelicans had a season-high 74 points in the paint last night, led by Zion Williamson’s 32. NO is 5-2 ATS its last seven games as an underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on CHICAGO

The Bulls have climbed into the top eight in the East by virtue of two consecutive victories. Now they’re still two games below .500, so this is hardly the halcyon days of the Jordan era. Still, a franchise that has not made the postseason four of the previous five years will “take it.” Chicago is also in a much better place than tonight’s opposition, Minnesota, who has the worst record in the entire NBA and lost five in a row. The Timberwolves played last night and got torched 139-112 at Milwaukee. So the situation here is hardly in their favor. It’s pretty rare that you can get away with laying such a short number like this against the T’wolves. So we’ll jump at the opportunity as the Bulls should have no problems scoring tonight. They’ve put up 120+ points in the last two games and just beat Houston by 20. They’re 11-5 ATS this season if they scored 115 or more in their last game. They’re also 11-4 ATS against the Western Conference and 12-5 ATS against sub-.500 teams. The bottom line is the Bulls are “looking” like a playoff team in 2021 and we think they’ll play like it tonight. Play on CHICAGO

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THIS IS A 10* on PHOENIX

The Suns had a six-game win streak snapped Tuesday with a 128-124 loss to Brooklyn. We’re not at all concerned about that. They actually led the Nets, who were without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, by 24. It’s obviously a game they should have won. They can get back on track tonight in New Orleans. The Pelicans have lost four of five while giving up an average of 126.8 points/game. Two nights ago, they were beaten here at home by Portland 126-124. They’ve also lost to the likes of Detroit and Chicago recently. Right now, the Pelicans’ record is 12-16 and they just don’t perform well off high-scoring games. They are 4-9 ATS after allowing 115 or more points and 3-9 ATS after scoring 115 or more themselves. The Suns are simply much better defensively as they rank 4th in league in scoring (108 PPG allowed). They’ve recently defeated Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Boston. We’ve got no hesitation with laying a small number with the better team. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami experienced a horrible loss last night as it blew a 19-point lead and lost to Golden State in overtime. It was a game where the Heat never actually trailed in regulation. Needless to say, that’s a game you “can’t lose.” But they did and are now sitting at 11-17 on the season, having lost three in a row. Sacramento is 12-15 and they’ve lost four straight, also going 0-4 ATS. Someone’s going to reverse their recent fortune here and we believe it will be the Heat, even though the Kings are rested. The four straight losses have all been at home. They’ve also all been by eight points or greater. Miami beat Sacramento on January 30th even though the Kings made 17 three-pointers in that game. The Kings defense is just horrendous as they allow more points per game than anyone in the West. At home, they are giving up an average of 121.6 points/game. Miami shouldn’t have any difficulty scoring tonight and we look for them to erase the painful memory of last night’s defeat. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana’s woes continued on Monday as they lost in overtime to Chicago. It was their seventh loss in the last 10 games and the fifth time in those 10 games they lost as a favorite. They were down 11 in the fourth quarter Monday. But tonight it's a welcome reprieve for the Pacers as they face Minnesota, who just played last night. The Timberwolves lost 112-104 to the Lakers (no Anthony Davis) Tuesday. They too have dropped seven of their last 10 games. But while Indiana is still fifth in the Eastern Conference with the same streak, Minnesota is last in the Western Conference. A case can be made that they are the league’s weakest overall team, so we won’t hesitate to lay such a short number tonight as Indiana is on a 13-4-1 ATS run in the road favorite role. Another interesting trend here is that the T’wolves are 3-7 ATS when their five starters collectively played for more than 160 minutes the previous game. They combined for 161 last night. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Two years ago, these teams met in the Eastern Conference Finals. In that series, the Raptors pulled off what was considered an “upset” and went on to win their 1st NBA Championship. Milwaukee has been the top seed in the East each of the last two years, yet hasn’t even advanced to a NBA Finals. They are currently in second place and just ended a six-game road trip with three consecutive losses. Losing to Utah and by one to Phoenix is excusable, however falling as an 11-point favorite to Oklahoma City (which is what Milwaukee did on Sunday) is not. They return home Tuesday, but the first home game following a long road trip always seems to be a tough spot, especially when returning from the West Coast. Toronto is off its own embarrassing loss (to Minnesota), so they’ve got something to play for. The Raptors had won five of six before dropping two straight. They also have revenge tonight for a seven-point loss last month. The initial line movement for this game definitely looks to be of the sharper variety. Take the points in this one. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks desperately need a win tonight. They have lost three straight and six of seven. This losing streak has dropped them into ninth place in the East, even though they can still claim to have scored more points than they’ve allowed this season. The Knicks actually have a better record than the Hawks (two up in the win column) as they are coming off wins over Washington and Houston. They won those games by a combined 40 points! But be wary of a team that still only averages 103.4 points/game. The 121 the Knicks scored against the Rockets were their most since the third game of the season. Center Mitchell Robinson broke his hand Friday, which is a significant injury for this team. Atlanta really collapsed defensively against Indiana Saturday night, but we don’t see that happening again tonight. Plus Trae Young is going to have a better shooting night here than he did vs. the Pacers (he didn’t even attempt a single three-pointer in that game). Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on the LAKERS

The Lakers fell behind 22-2 at the start Friday night. But over the course of the final three quarters, they battled back and ended up winning fairly comfortably against Memphis, 115-105. They even covered the 8.5-point spread! They can ill-afford a similar start tonight in Denver but it’s fair to say we won’t see anything like the start vs. Memphis. The Lakers have won seven in a row, the most convincing of which was a 114-93 game vs. the Nuggets out in LA. Incredibly that was a game the Lakers trailed by 12 at halftime. It may not end up being as big of a blowout tonight, but it doesn’t have to be and again, we stress the fact the Lakers WILL get off to a better start. Denver has won two straight after losing four of five, but those wins were vs. Cleveland and Oklahoma City. Against the Thunder, the Nuggets had their own poor start as they fell behind by 19. The Lakers can’t let the Jazz get too far ahead in the fight for first in the Western Conference. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston has lost four straight games and failed to cover the spread in all of them. The two that were on the road did not go well at all as they were beaten by a combined 54 points at Charlotte and New Orleans. Thursday they lost at home to Miami. But we look for the Rockets to blast off tonight in New York as the Knicks are in the second game of a back to back and off a win. They beat the Wizards 109-91 Friday night, a win which came on the road. Having to now head home without any rest in between games is a tough spot for a team we still don’t think is very good, even though it is 12-15, a more competitive record than expected. The Rockets had a 13-point lead Thursday and could be shorthanded here, but we still like them as they’d won seven of eight before this four-game slide. The Knicks have failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve played a back to back. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 8* on PORTLAND

While Portland upset Philadelphia last night, we do not see them suffering any kind of letdown in the second night of a back to back against Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been really lousy of late, losing seven of the last eight. They were just beaten by THIRTY EIGHT points in Denver on Wednesday. It was the fifth loss by 18 or more points since January 29th. You’re looking at a team that has the worst point differential among Eastern Conference teams, so it’s just a matter of time before the Cavs are at/near last place in the standings. The only team in the league with a worse power rating is Minnesota. Portland is 5th in the Western Conference and has to be feeling good about itself following the result last night. They have won four of the last five games and two straight at home. Cleveland let Denver make 60% of its field goal attempts, so the Blazers should have a big game offensively. The Cavs are also getting outscored by 12.6 points/game on the road, so we have zero hesitation about laying such a short number. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

We say it’s “time” for the Mavericks to actually cover a game! They are just 1-10 ATS L11, but have won the last three straight up, all three wins coming by five points or less. Those three wins were against Golden State, Minnesota and Atlanta. Against Atlanta Wednesday night, they had to rally back from a 13-point deficit. It’s a real small number that the Mavs are being asked to lay tonight as the Pelicans pay a visit to Dallas. The Pelicans just dropped a game in Chicago, 129-116, which snapped a four-game SU and ATS win streak. Neither of these teams are among the top eight in the Western Conference and both are two games below .500. So it would “seem” to be a fairly even matchup. However, Dallas has grossly underachieved to this point and in our estimation is due to improve its record. They are just 2-10 ATS at home. How long can they continue to sport such a poor covering rate? New Orleans is pretty atrocious at defending the 3-point line, giving up an average of 16 threes per game. They just let Chicago make 25! This has been a favorable matchup in the past for the Mavericks, who won all four matchups last season. Play on DALLAS

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This is an 8* on PORTLAND

Philadelphia continues to lead the Eastern Conference with an 18-7 record. Their lead has now grown to two games with Milwaukee losing at Phoenix last night. The Sixers have won six of their last seven games and tonight finds them getting an opportunity to avenge that one loss as they travel to Portland. The Blazers beat them 121-105 last Thursday and that was in Philly. The Blazers were 10-point underdogs in that game and pulled the upset despite not even having Damian Lillard in the lineup! They also didn’t have CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. What they did have is six players score 14 or more points and a third quarter where they outscored the 76ers 40-19. Lillard will be in the lineup tonight and the game is in Portland where the Blazers just won 106-97 over Orlando Tuesday night. Philly had to rally late to win at Sacramento that same night and you’re going to want to take the points here. This spread is pretty similar to that Sixers-Kings game, which seems ridiculous on the surface as Portland is better than Sacramento. The Blazers are 4-1 straight up and against the spread the last five meetings. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana, despite losing four in a row, is still in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Detroit is at the bottom with a 6-18 record for the season. The Pistons did win Tuesday, over the team that just beat the Pacers last night (Brooklyn). But we’re looking at this as a classic buy low spot on the favorite. While it’s been a rough month so far, the Pacers have played a number of good teams. It’s been awhile since they faced anyone in the same class as Detroit, a team they have actually not faced since the end of 2019! This should be a welcome matchup. Indiana was -24 in free throw attempts compared to Brooklyn last night, a big reason they lost. A big reason why the Pistons beat the Nets is that they were an uncharacteristically hot 56 percent from the floor. This is a team that shoots just 43.3% for the season. Indiana’s starters had only 51 points last night and the team shot 39.1% overall. Again, it’s all about the “buy low” as the Pacers are a better team than the Pistons and should be laying a larger number. Detroit is 0-5 after a win this year. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

The Wizards HAVE to be better than this, right? Their 5-15 record is second worst in the Eastern Conference and yesterday’s 119-97 loss at Charlotte was just plain embarrassing. Tonight they try and dust themselves off in Chicago against a Bulls team they’ve already lost to twice this season, both times at home. Those games took place right before the new year and were relatively close. Washington was also a six and seven point favorite in them. This will actually be the Bulls sixth straight game being favored, which is pretty rare. But all those lines have been three points or less and they’re only 2-3. The Wizards have the NBA’s leading scorer in Bradley Beal (33.3 PPG) and are a lock to improve upon Sunday’s atrocious 9 of 40 shooting from three-point range. The Bulls are only 3-7 at home and 2-5 their last seven games overall. We think the road team is better, so it makes sense to grab them as underdogs. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Utah is unquestionably the hottest team in the league right now as they’ve won 14 of the last 15 games. Making the run all the more impressive is the fact all but one of those victories has been by double digits. The one single-digit win happened to be against the team that also beat them last Sunday, Denver. With the best overall record in the Western Conference right now, the Jazz have to be feeling good about themselves. But I view this game as a potential “slip up” as Indiana has got to turn things around. The Pacers have lost two straight and four of five. The last loss was close as they were beaten 114-113 by New Orleans here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Remember that earlier in the week the Pacers did snap Memphis’ seven-game win streak with an emphatic 134-116 win at home. So there’s a precedent for beating a red-hot team.The Pacers are 5-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. They were -1.5 vs. New Orleans. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

The Warriors crushed the Mavs on Thursday, winning 147-116. It was the second night of a back to back for Dallas, but that’s still no excuse to be beaten THAT badly, especially since Golden State had just nine players available for that game. Something is just not right with the Mavs, who have now dropped seven of their last eight. The lone victory during that stretch came in Atlanta, the night before getting destroyed by the Warriors. Golden State has yet to win (or lose) three in a row this season. But they have won back to back games five times. In fact, all 10 wins have “come in pairs.” So by that trend, they “should” win tonight. We’ll grab the points just to “be careful,” but it’s certainly difficult to look past what happened the other night and think this will be anything other than an outright win. Dallas is the worst three-point shooting team in the league. They are also just 1-7 against the spread their last eight games. The Warriors were our 10* Game of the Month last Saturday when they blew out the Pistons. They are our top choice again for this week. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on BOSTON

Boston is playing its third straight game on the West Coast and they hope it goes more like the first one than the second. They started this trip by defeating the Warriors 111-107 as a 2-point favorite. The following night they lost 116-111 at Sacramento (were favored by 1 pt). Tonight they are an underdog at the Clippers, who have won all but two of their previous 13 games. They are tied with the Lakers (17-6) for 2nd in the Western Conference, trailing Utah by one-half game. Boston is 4th in the East. Key here is the Celtics are 5-3 ATS as underdogs with four outright wins. Coming off a long road trip, the Clips may be prone to a letdown in this situation and it’s a decent number they are laying to a good team. They are only 4-5-1 ATS as home favorites and 7-8-1 ATS off a win. They don’t have point guard Patrick Beverely in this contest and we can’t see them shooting as well from three tonight as they did against Cleveland. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana looked really good last night, beating a Memphis team that had previously won seven in a row. The Grizzlies were playing on the second night of a back to back, but the Pacers made it look easy with a 134-116 victory. They shot nearly 60% for the game and now must avoid the same fate that befell their opponents last night as they play without rest. Milwaukee is the opponent, so it won’t be easy, but the Bucks are just 3-4 SU L7 games. Also no one on the Pacers logged more than 35 minutes last night. Playing on back to back days hasn’t been a problem before. They are actually 3-0 straight up and against the spread in such games this season. They are also 4-2 SU and ATS as an underdog. While the Bucks started this homestand by drubbing Portland 134-106, that may not be a good thing as they are 0-3 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more in their last game. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland played a terrible game last night in Milwaukee, losing 134-106. The Bucks were coming off two straight losses, a rarity for them, but still there’s rarely an excuse for losing by 28 points. Tonight the Blazers face a Washington team that’s off a shocking win as they defeated Brooklyn 149-147 (a game that ended in regulation!) Saturday night. That was the Wizards’ first win since returning from a long COVID-induced layoff. They’d lost four in a row prior and were beaten soundly in all four games. That they were behind by five with just 10 seconds left against Brooklyn means the Wizards are quite lucky not to be on a 5-game losing streak here. We’re a bit surprised that they are the favorites tonight. Yes the game is in D.C. but the Wizards still have one of the worst records in the NBA at 4-12 SU. Portland has taken the last three meetings. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

New Orleans certainly did right by me on Friday. They were able to defeat Milwaukee, right here at home, by a score of 131-126. That scoring output matched the most points allowed by the Bucks in any game this season. So it was a really impressive victory for the Pelicans. Unfortunately, they had to play the next night and lost 126-112 to Houston. That makes it nine losses in the last 12 games for a team that was expected to make the playoffs this year. Sacramento is not a team anyone expects to make the playoffs, so this is a game the Pelicans “have to have.” They’re laying a surprisingly short number, partly because the Kings are 4-0 ATS their last four games, but we’ll lay it. The Kings are just dreadful defensively despite a low-scoring loss in Miami over the weekend. No team in the league allows more points per possession and it’s not really close. The 119.6 points/game allowed by the Kings are the most in the Western Conference. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

There is an interesting pattern this year with Golden State as they have yet to win or lose three in a row. Thursday marked the fifth time they failed to win a third straight game. They lost by 21 at Phoenix, a shocking failure as it was only a five-point deficit at halftime. The problem was that other than Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins, the rest of the team shot just 32 percent (22 of 68). There have been three times so far that the Warriors have lost back to back games. However, each time the second loss came on the road. And those losses were all to really good teams: Milwaukee, Denver and Utah. Tonight they are facing a bad Detroit team and the game is at home. The Pistons are 1-7 on the road and allow 119.0 points per game. Fresh off an upset of the Lakers at home, we say the Pistons are ripe to get blown out Saturday night. When they beat the Lakers, there was no Anthony Davis. LeBron James went uncharacteristically cold in the second half. Curry won’t be cold in this game considering the Pistons defensive woes on the road. The Warriors already beat the Pistons by 10 in Detroit last month. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Milwaukee is off a fairly big win over Toronto. This is the middle game of a three-game road trip. New Orleans just won, 124-106 against Washington. That was just their second win in 10 games. The Pelicans have only gotten to play six home games though. They are 3-3 in those six, not that great, but the Bucks are only 4-4 on the road. Playing on ESPN, you figure the Pelicans are going to come out highly motivated. The Bucks are just 5-15-1 ATS off a win and 2-6-1 ATS off an ATS win. New Orleans has been a home underdog only one time and they won that game, 120-116 over Toronto. They were actually only a one-point dog in that game. This is likely to be the most points they get in any home game this season (or at least until they play the Lakers). Even though they are just 2-8 the last 10 games, the Pelicans have only been outscored by an average of less than five points per game. Play on NEW ORLEANS

This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Both the Warriors and Suns were in action last night. The respective results were quite different. Golden State handled its business at home against Minnesota, winning rather easily by a score of 123-111. Rookie James Wiseman led the way with 25 points after Steph Curry had 36 the previous game vs. the Timberwolves. Off that two-game sweep, Golden State now goes to the desert where they’ll face a wounded Suns team that is playing without leading scorer Devin Booker. Last night marked the third straight loss for Phoenix as they fell 102-97 here at home to Oklahoma City. It also marked the fifth loss in the last six games and seventh in the last 10. Last night was especially frustrating for the Suns as they jumped out to an early 17-point lead. But that didn’t last long. Booker isn’t the only one not playing for the Suns right now. Dario Sakic has been out due to COVID, so this team is pretty short-handed right now. You have to imagine that Curry is going to have a bounce back game tonight after missing his first seven shots last night. That’s bad news for a struggling Suns team that is just 1-5 ATS its last six games as a favorite. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* on BOSTON

After a three-game losing streak that saw them lose twice to the 76ers and in embarrassing fashion to the Knicks, Boston has battled back to win its last two games in very convincing fashion. They took care of the Cavs 141-103 and then the Bulls 119-103. Tonight they are in San Antonio to face a Spurs team that was supposed to play Monday in New Orleans, but didn’t due to COVID-19 protocols. The Spurs last played Sunday when they blew out a Washington team that was playing its first game in two weeks. Before that, the Spurs had lost two straight. With COVID now impacting them, we don’t see the Spurs playing well tonight. Jayson Tatum is now back for the Celtics, who are 4-1 ATS their last five as favorites. It appears that we don’t need to worry about this game not being played. So we’ll lay the points. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on UTAH 

Utah is the hottest team in the league right now. They are 8-0 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games. Do not expect any kind of letdown this evening as they are up against the last team to defeat them. Surprisingly, that team is New York. It was on January 6th that the Knicks upset the Jazz 112-100. They were eight-point underdogs at home for that matchup, which saw them trail by as much as 18 at one point. The shocking comeback saw the Knicks outscore the Jazz 68-44 in the second half. But that’s clearly not what you should expect here. Utah led by as many as 40 points Saturday vs. Golden State and won by 19. New York ended up only losing by three Sunday in Portland, but was behind by as many as 25 at one point before pulling off the “backdoor cover.” The Knicks have now lost 7 of 10 as they continue to be wildly inconsistent. We do not fear the possibility of a back door cover this time as the Jazz are out for revenge and have won by double digits in seven of the eight games during the active win streak. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland didn’t cover the spread last night, but they certainly should have. They led the Knicks by 20 points at halftime only to let that large lead slip away. They won 116-113 as a 3.5-point favorite after scoring just 19 points in the fourth quarter. Tonight they face another bad team, Oklahoma City, who is also playing the second game of a back to back. The Thunder lost Sunday, 108-100 to the Clippers, to fall to 1-5 SU their last 6 games. The only win was by two points at Chicago. Though playing short-handed (no McCollum, Jurkic), we still give the advantage here to the Blazers. The Thunder aren’t a good team. They trailed by 17 on Sunday before making the game closer than it actually was. The same was true in their previous game vs. the Clippers. So it’s very much the opposite for Portland, who played much better last night than what the final score says. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

The Knicks are 8-9 and holding down 8th place in the Eastern Conference, which is a lot better than where we thought they’d be at this point of the season. Generally regarded as one of the worst teams in the league coming into the season, New York has been an underdog in virtually all of its games thus far. They’d pulled three consecutive upsets prior to losing 103-94 in Sacramento Friday night. But one easy thing to note here is that they are last in the league in points per game. Portland, who is dealing with some injuries right now, is 8-6 and fourth in the Western Conference. They haven’t played since Monday when they were defeated 125-104 by San Antonio. The Blazers were supposed to face Memphis Wednesday and Friday, but those games had to be cancelled due to the Grizzlies’ COVID-19 issues. "Between getting extra rest and extra reps, the practices have been good for us,"Portland head coach Terry Stotts said. "It helped. There is no question that having extra time to work on things on both ends -- we need to adjust. Different guys will have different roles. From that standpoint, missing these two games was good for us." We’ll put our faith in what the coach had to say as it’s unlikely the Knicks can continue winning regularly. They are 2-6 ATS their last eight games in Portland. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Utah is on a 7-0 SU/ATS run here, but actually had to rally from a double digit deficit to win against New Orleans Thursday night. We were glad to see that seeing as we were on the Jazz, but it’s time to reverse course Saturday when Golden State comes to town. As good as Utah has been recently, not sure it’s going to continue over the course of the season. They’ve beaten some bad teams during this win streak. Against opponents that come in at .500 or better, they are just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Golden State hasn’t done well as a favorite so far, but the last time they were an underdog, they upset the Lakers Monday night. That was a Lakers team that, like the Jazz here, were on a big winning streak. The Warriors suffered an embarrassing defeat in their last game, to the Knicks, and you know they’re going to want to bounce back from that. Before that, they’d not only beaten the Lakers, but also the Spurs by 22 points. Take the points in this matchup. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on UTAH

We learned our lesson in the previous matchup between these teams, which went down Tuesday and saw the Jazz emerge victorious by a score of 118-102. They covered the spread too, as 6.5-point favorites. It was the sixth straight win and cover for a Utah team that is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. We had the Pelicans Tuesday, but not again here as they can’t seem to buy a victory with just one in the previous seven games. In its last five games, Utah has given up an average of just 94.2 points. New Orleans hasn’t been good offensively, save for the win against Sacramento, who happens to be the worst defensive team in the NBA. The Jazz have become absolutely lethal from behind the three-point line, a fact the Pelicans know all too well as they helplessly watched the Jazz make 21 3PA on Tuesday. It was the fourth time in the last six games Utah made at least 20 threes! This is very much the third best team in the West right now. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks are still looking to regain that early season form. Monday’s 108-97 win against Minnesota was definitely a “step in the right direction” and now they can get back to .500 with a win today over Detroit, which shouldn’t be difficult considering the Pistons are the worst team in the league. The spread isn’t even that high. Atlanta began the year 4-1 but has lost six of eight. Both wins were at home though and the Pistons have just one road win so far and it came against a severely depleted Miami Heat squad. Detroit is just 3-10 SU overall following a loss to the Heat on Monday. Atlanta won 128-120 when these teams played on December 28th and while they failed to cover, that’s because they were laying 11 points. The line is much shorter this time, probably due to recent form, but the Pistons very much remain a terrible team while we believe the Hawks are among the league’s most improved squads this season. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

The Jazz have looked really good of late, not only winning - but also covering - five in a row. The win streak began with an upset in Milwaukee, but since then it’s been four straight as favorites. They are laying points again tonight vs. a New Orleans team that just ended a five-game LOSING streak by defeating Sacramento 128-123 on Sunday. This is the first of two games these teams will play over the next three days. While it won’t be as easy for Pelicans to score here as it was Sunday, we still like them plus the points in this scenario as each of the previous four meetings have been close with two of them decided by just two points each. Just not convinced that Utah is as dominant as they’ve looked recently, plus this is kind of a letdown spot following the win in Denver Sunday, which was a big revenge game stemming from last year’s playoffs. The Jazz are only 2-2 SU at home. They are just 6-14-2 ATS L22 here. Three Pelicans topped 20 points on Sunday. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on BROOKLYN

This might be the last time this season we see Brooklyn as a home underdog. We’ll seize the opportunity. James Harden’s first game with the Nets probably couldn’t have gone much better as he notched a triple double and Kevin Durant scored 42 points. Admittedly, that was against the Magic. But having two players like Harden and Durant make the Nets a top three team in the league. Kyrie Irving, whose status is questionable, becomes more “expendable” with the arrival of Harden. While the Bucks have won seven of eight, three of those wins were versus Detroit. They too beat Orlando, as well as bad teams like Chicago and Cleveland. Really, the only “good” team they’ve beaten recently was Dallas on Friday and that win came by just three points. This is a big statement game for a Brooklyn team that has lost eight straight times at home to the Bucks. That streak ends tonight. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

San Antonio and Portland’s recent form is quite similar as both won Saturday in come from behind fashion. The Spurs have five of their last seven games while the Blazers have won five of six. In both cases, strong play at the defensive end keyed the Saturday victories. The Spurs actually found themselves down double digits in the first half to a very undermanned Houston squad (who had just eight players suit up) before taking control late. Portland trailed Atlanta by seven at the break but allowed just 20 points in the third and fourth quarters. We side with the home team in this MLK Day afternoon game. The Spurs have been strong on the road (5-2) thus far, but did lose at Minnesota as a favorite. We found it curious to see them favored in this one. Maybe that’s because of the injuries, but Damian Lillard is still here and his 36 points led the way vs. Atlanta. The Spurs are just 8-20-1 ATS their last 29 games as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

The Pistons didn’t play last night because their scheduled opponent (Washington) didn’t have enough players. Tonight they are set to face another team ravaged by COVID, Miami, who has had eight players miss the previous two games. Despite that disadvantage, the Heat hung tough in both games vs. Philadelphia. The first game went to overtime and while the second was a 17-point loss, we think they’re better than that. If there was ever a team the Heat could hope to face here, it would be Detroit, who is NOT better than its 2-9 record. Their only two wins have been by a total of eight points and in one of them, they trailed by 20+ before storming back to win in overtime. To be fair, the Pistons were expected to be the worst team in the East this year. Our view is that Miami takes this game very seriously and their skeleton crew will still be able to defeat the team with the worst record in the league. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Denver was looking at a possible third consecutive win on Tuesday when they faced Brooklyn. Things started off well enough as the Nuggets jumped out to an 18-point lead in that game. But they blew it and ended up losing 122-116, thereby denying them a winning record. They’ve yet to be over .500 at any point this season, a disappointment after finishing 2nd and 3rd in the Western Conference each of the previous two seasons. Tonight, they’ll play host to the Warriors, who are a game over .500 as they look to rebound from a dismal 2019-20 campaign. Golden State also lost Tuesday, 104-95 to Indiana, as they too squandered a halftime lead. But only one of these teams can bounce back tonight in the second game of the TNT doubleheader. We’re siding with the Warriors, mainly due to the fact Denver is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite so far. Defensively, Golden State has been better than Denver this season and we see Steph Curry possibly “going off” here after being held to 20 points or fewer in three of the last four games. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks have really had the Pistons number the last few seasons. They’ve won 13 in a row over their Central Division rivals with two of those victories coming last week. Most of the games haven’t been close either. The Bucks have gone 11-1-1 ATS in those 13 straight wins and the two last week were by 10 and 15 points. They didn’t cover the first one as they were huge 16-point favorites. The number is a lot more advantageous tonight in Detroit. It’s not like there’s much of a home court advantage for the Pistons. They just lost here on Sunday, 96-86 to the Jazz. Detroit has just two wins, one of which was in overtime after they overcame a 23-point deficit. They are one of the worst teams in the league while the Bucks very much remain the best. No team can touch the Bucks’ league-leading point differential and/or net efficiency rating. They are averaging 121.9 points/game while allowing only 110.3. All seven wins have come by double digits. No reason this shouldn’t be #8. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on OKC

Oklahoma City continues to be a great bet, especially when getting points, as they’ve won and covered each of their last three games - all of them as the underdog. The Thunder held the best ATS record in the league last season and are already off to a strong 6-3 start at the betting window this season. They are on a 48-25 ATS roll as underdogs and once again they’re getting points tonight as they host San Antonio. This isn’t the “Spurs of old” either. They just lost 96-88 in Minnesota Sunday, as a favorite, which was their fifth loss in eight games. They’ve been favored in only two games this season, those being the last two - both of which were vs. the Timberwolves. Not only did they lose outright on Sunday, but they failed to cover in a win Saturday. Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip which began exactly seven days ago. So this is likely a tired team, one that is playing without DeMar DeRozan, the team leader in scoring and assists. Oklahoma City hasn’t won at home yet (0-3), but the fact they just went 4-1 SU on a five-game road trip tells us they are ready to. Grab the home team plus the points. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY

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