This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets.

I picked the Houston Rockets at +1500 to win the NBA championship before the season started and have to say that I am pretty surprised at the lack of passion this team has showed in this series. The Rockets are a better defensive team that what they've shown to this point and with their backs against the wall today, I believe we'll see a much more complete effort overall on that end tonight. It's also hard to imagine Houston playing any worse on the offensive end, it would go on to miss 12 of its final 15 3-point attempts in Game 3. Note, it was in fact the first time since April 8th in San Antonio that the Rockets were held under the century mark in points. And from an ATS trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Houston is 13-3 ATS this year after a loss by 10 points or more, while LA is just 26-28 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more. While I do indeed feel that the outright win is not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on the ROCKETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Chicago Bulls.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as all signs once again point to another nail biter in Game 4. I played the UNDER in Game 3 and Derrick Rose's dagger at the buzzer sealed the 99-96 victory for me. The Cavs were able to bounce back in Game 2 behind massive games from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, but once again they'd falter in Game 3, the Bulls depth is just too much for the Cavs to handle. This is the biggest game of the entire year for both teams, Chicago can take a commanding grip of this series and I think will take advantage of the friendly confines and find a way to get the job done. For me it's as simple as that: while I feel that James is still the best player in the league and Irving is one of the best, the Bulls' bench will prove to be the difference again today, play on CHICAGO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets.

I got down on this line the second it came out and am saddled with just +3, most of you would have been able to get 4 or at least 4.5 as of Friday morning. However, I still love this selection and while I obviously feel that the outright win is certainly not out of the question whatsoever, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they've been afforded. LA is almost certainly going to be without the services of all star point guard Chris Paul once again tonight and if he does play, he's not going to be at 100%; suffice it to say, I think this is going to be a major factor. LA has played excellent without its floor general and has gotten Herculean efforts from Blake Griffin, but I simply can't see the team continuing to play so well with his continued absence. In fact, Houston was finally able to make some appropriate adjustments to defend Griffin in the second half of Game 2, it limited him to just 8 points over the final two quarters and overcame a 13-point deficit to win by six, failing to cover the spread for a second straight game by a single point. And the Rockets must also be extremely confident with the return of James Harden's stellar play, after struggling through the first seven quarters of this series, the MVP runner-up would score 16 of his 32 points in the fourth quarter: "We let Game 1 slip away and we didn't want that feeling for Game 2," Harden assessed afterwards.. "It's going to be a tough two games in a row, but we've got our mojo now." Note that Houston is 8-3 ATS this year after playing three consecutive home games, while LA is just 1-6 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range and already 0-3 ATS when tied in a playoff series. Play on the ROCKETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Rockets.

No need to overanalyze this play in my opinion, this is basically a do-or-die game for the Rockets, an 0-2 hole and heading to LA would likely be their downfall and as such, I'm fully expecting all hands on deck tonight and for the home side to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. To tell you the truth, I'm shocked in Houston's effort in Game 1, it was a gift facing the Chris Paul-less Clippers who were coming off an extremely tough seven-game opening round series win over the defending champions. I simply can't see the home side not coming in much more focused tonight, it was uncharacteristically poor play which ultimately would doom the Rockets, the Clippers were able to score 34 points off 24 turnovers. Also note that from a ATS trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as LA is a poor 0-7 ATS the last two years when leading in a playoff series and just 12-14 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU wins. And note that Houston is 12-1 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite and 13-2 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. Play on the ROCKETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Chicago Bulls.

I played the Bulls in Game 1 and if you did not get a chance to read that analysis, it's worth a second look here, as for the most part, the reasoning behind it also directly pertains to tonight's selection:

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that they've been afforded. Yesterday I had a play on the Golden State Warriors and stated that the absence of guard Mike Conley in the Memphis Grizzlies line-up was a major situational factor that was working in our favor and suffice it to say, with two starters sitting out for the Cavaliers, the same line of reasoning also applies in this one. Not only will Cleveland be without the services of big man Kevin Love, but it's also not played in eight days; I think rest turns to rust here. The Bulls in contrast are healthier than they've been in the last three years and have played twice in the last eight days. The stars have truly aligned for Chicago, I think its depth will be just too much for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in Game 1; play on CHICAGO.

Both Love and JR Smith will once again be sitting this one out, meaning that James and Irving will once again have to carry the majority of the load. And once again, I think this is simply too much to be asking of them, Chicago's depth at this point of the season is something that the Cavaliers are going to have an extremely hard time over-coming, the only way this team wins is if both James and Irving have monstrous nights. I'll gladly grab the points here. And note that Chicago is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 vs. good offensive teams that score 99-plus points per contest, while Cleveland is a poor 7-12 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent this season. Play on the BULLS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Golden State Warriors.

I played the Warriors in Game 1 and if you didn't get a chance to read the analysis from that selection, it's definitely worth a second look as the reasoning behind that play also directly applies to tonight's pick:

The Warriors are exuding confidence right now, while the Grizzlies come to town battered and bruised. In my opinion, this one has all the makings of a beatdown of epic proportions, I look for the hot-shooting home side to bombard the under-manned visitors and to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. Memphis is unsure if point guard Mike Conley will start because of surgery he had on his face; if he does play, he'll be far from 100% in my opinion, a crucial factor here that we're going to take advantage of in Game 1. Also note that Golden State has another clear advantage of being able to play in front of the home town crowd where it's 41-2, including winning its past 20 in a row. And note again, the Warriors would go 2-1 against the Grizzlies in the regular season, their only loss came when Andrew Bogut was out with injury, the big man though is back and healthier than ever: "Whether it's a flashy up-tempo game or whether it's an 87-83 game, we feel like we have enough pieces and versatility to win all sorts of ways now," the Warriors Stephen Curry assessed on Friday. "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series." Golden State is fresh, it's healthy, it's confident, I'm backing the WARRIORS in this one.

As if the Warriors weren't confident enough already, but after his 22 point performance in Game 1's 101-86 victory, star Stephen Curry was officially named the NBA's MVP. Conley is once again questionable tonight, and even if he does play, he's not going to be 100%; suffice it to say, whether he plays or not isn't going to matter, Golden State has won 21 in a row at Oracle Arena, including playoffs. The Warriors are just too deep for the Grizzlies, note that in all, thirteen players saw action for Golden State in Game 1. Also note that Memphis is interestingly just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, while the Warriors are 29-16 ATS this season after a victory by 10 points or more. Look for GOLDEN STATE to continue to stretch the Grizzlies under-manned defense and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE SECOND ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on the Houston Rockets.

I chose the Houston Rockets at 15 to 1 to win the NBA Championship last September and while the team has a long way to go before that comes true, it has to be liking its chances today I think as it catches a Clippers club coming off a monumental Game 7 win over the defending NBA Champions; suffice it to say, this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the visitors. All of the emotion and energy that it took to finally get over the hill and vanquish their bitter rival has been expended and the Clippers reward is a quick turn-around for a road game against a focused and well rested Rockets squad. From a situational stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this. I am primarily a situational handicapper at heart and these are obviously the exact types of scenarios that I am constantly looking out for. And as a situational capper, for the most part individual player match-ups rarely factor into my handicapping process and that's the case here. These are two very evenly matched teams (they'd split the regular season 2-2), so finding influencing external factors will be crucial in handicapping this series in my opinion and that's the case here. All signs point to a blowout, play on the ROCKETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Chicago Bulls.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that they've been afforded. Yesterday I had a play on the Golden State Warriors and stated that the absence of guard Mike Conley in the Memphis Grizzlies line-up was a major situational factor that was working in our favor and suffice it to say, with two starters sitting out for the Cavaliers, the same line of reasoning also applies in this one. Not only will Cleveland be without the services of big man Kevin Love, but it's also not played in eight days; I think rest turns to rust here. The Bulls in contrast are healthier than they've been in the last three years and have played twice in the last eight days. The stars have truly aligned for Chicago, I think its depth will be just too much for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in Game 1; play on CHICAGO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors are exuding confidence right now, while the Grizzlies come to town battered and bruised. In my opinion, this one has all the makings of a beatdown of epic proportions, I look for the hot-shooting home side to bombard the under-manned visitors and to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. Memphis is unsure if point guard Mike Conley will start because of surgery he had on his face; if he does play, he'll be far from 100% in my opinion, a crucial factor here that we're going to take advantage of in Game 1. Also note that Golden State has another clear advantage of being able to play in front of the home town crowd where it's 41-2, including winning its past 20 in a row. And note again, the Warriors would go 2-1 against the Grizzlies in the regular season, their only loss came when Andrew Bogut was out with injury, the big man though is back and healthier than ever: "Whether it's a flashy up-tempo game or whether it's an 87-83 game, we feel like we have enough pieces and versatility to win all sorts of ways now," the Warriors Stephen Curry assessed on Friday. "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series." Golden State is fresh, it's healthy, it's confident, I'm backing the WARRIORS in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Brooklyn Nets.

I played Atlanta last time out, but for the most part this series has been pretty damn competitive. In fact, the teams are separated by a mere nine points so far in the playoffs. It was the first time the Hawks had covered in this series and to say home-court advantage is a major factor would be a big understatement I think as each team has won every game on its home court so far. I firmly believe the Nets have a very legitimate shot at continuing that trend tonight, at the very least, keeping it close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they've been afforded. Brooklyn is actually 5-0 in Game 6 best-of-seven, first round series, fighting off elimination the last two years, losing to Chicago in Game 7 in 2013, but beating the Raptors last year. Also note, that from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Atlanta is 0-6 ATS the last two years when leading in a playoff series, while Brooklyn is 8-3 ATS in the same position and time frame, while also going 3-1 ATS this season as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. While I would obviously not be shocked at all to see the home side take this one outright, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with BROOKLYN.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Hawks.

So far I'm 3-1 in this series, I had the OVER in Game 4, but for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest lies with the home side, which I think surprisingly, has yet to cover in this series. Atlanta has struggled with the Nets so far, after winning the first two games of this series by a combined 12 points, Brooklyn would take Game's 3 and 4, including Monday's 120-115 OT effort to even it. But with the shift in venue, I think this highly motivated and clearly under-achieving Hawks team comes to play today. It's not all doom and gloom for Atlanta obviously, the Hawks have to be feeling very confident today, they've won 24 of their last 27 in front of the home town crowd. And note, Brooklyn has lost 12 of its last 14 in Atlanta. The No. 1 seed has struggled so far, but I think the conditions are now finally right for a lop-sided rout; also note that this is a spot in which the Nets have struggled in for bettors all year, a poor 6-11 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and only 10-13 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. Conversely, this is a position in which the Hawks have dominated in, a great 8-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and 12-9 ATS after allowing 105 points or more. This is it, the game that ATLANTA fans have been waiting for, lay the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

I've targeted the total over the first three games of this series, but finally shift my attention to the side and with a chance to wrap up this series with a big effort tonight, I am fully expecting the Cavs to clamp down defensively and to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. The Celtics have put up a valiant fight, but with the knowledge of the fact that no team in NBA playoff history has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit to win a series, I believe the home side will throw in the white towel against this hungry and determined Cavs team. It was a complete team effort for Cleveland in Game 3 and the team is simply exuding confidence at the moment. The C's stars are starting to show signs of stress, Isaiah Thomas led Boston with 44 points over the first two games, but was limited to five on 2 of 9 shooting on Thursday. I think the stage is set for a beatdown performance in Game 4. Note that Cleveland is 9-4 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest, while Boston is just 3-4 ATS in the same position. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the CAVALIERS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Hawks.

Slow starts in Games 1 and 2 have seen the Hawks hold on for a SU victory in both, but unable to cover the spread in either. I think that changes tonight though and look for the under-performing visitors to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. Atlanta would lead by as many 16 in Game 1 before gutting out the 99-92 win after allowing the Nets to close to within four in the final two minutes. The Hawks also had a 12 point lead in Game 2 and would have to hold on for the 96-91 victory. Atlanta came into this series with some bumps and bruises, but players like Paul Millsap and Al Horford have clearly started to make some adjustments and I think the Hawks are just getting stronger at this point. I also think the Nets have to be feeling pretty lucky to have even put up as much as a fight as they've done to this point, as note that they've shot 45.2 percent, including hitting just 13 of 46 from long range so far in this series. Also note that Atlanta is 23-15 ATS on the road this year, while Brooklyn is just 17-23 ATS in front of the home town crowd. I'm not buying what the bookmakers are trying to sell here and am expecting a lop-sided rout, lay the short points on the HAWKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Toronto Raptors.

For a number of different reasons I expect the desperate Raptors to at the very least, keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the hand full of points they've been afforded. It's a do-or-die game for the underachieving visiting side, no team in NBA playoff history has ever rallied from an 0-3 hole to win a series: "If being down 0-2 (doesn't) stimulate urgency, then I don't know what would," Raptors guad DeMar DeRozan confirmed last night. "Nobody's ready to go home, nobody's ready to pack it up. We understand how bad we played these last two games and we want to do a lot better." As a primarily a situational handicapper, individual player match-ups rarely factor into my decision process and that's the case here. Washington is just 2-6 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range and just 4-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. Conversely, note that Toronto is 6-4 ATS this year as a road dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range and 8-7 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the RAPTORS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Hawks.

For the most part the No. 1 seeds have struggled to cover the spread in both the East and the West, but I finally feel that the conditions are right for a lop-sided blowout and expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cash. I had the Nets in Game 1 and feel fortunate to have come away with the 99-92 victory as the Hawks were clearly struggling in stretches. But with that awkward first contest out of the way, I think it’s going to be business as usual for high-flying Atlanta. Remember, Brooklyn went 0-4 against Atlanta in the regular season by an average of 17.2 points. Both teams are banged up, I’m not reading too much into that angle at all, but take note that the Nets are a poor 4-5 ATS this season as a road underdog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, while Atlanta is a great 27-22 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 99 plus points per contest. I expect the home side to play a lot “looser” this evening and believe this factor to translate into production on both ends of the court for ATLANTA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Toronto Raptors.

I played the Wizards in Game 1, but with their backs against the wall, I look for the Raptors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and head to the nation's capital all knotted up. Game 1 saw Washington gut out the 93-86 OT victory, but note that it was actually a rarity for the team who would struggle mightily on the road, losing 15 of their last 19 away from friendly confines. Toronto's big men got caught out of position in Game 1, the defense was stretched and was ultimately outrebounded 61-48 once the smoke cleared; also note that the Raptors had to deal with all-star Kyle Lowry fouling out with 2:36 remaining in the fourth quarter. Toronto actually did a very good job in shutting down the Wizards dynamic backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal, the duo combining for just 26 points. Note that Washington is just 3-5 ATS off an upset win as underdog this year, while Toronto is 8-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the RAPTORS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Golden State Warriors.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I am expecting the home side to have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. I grabbed this line the second it came out and got -10.5, it's since gone up, but regardless, I love this selection and fully expect the Warriors to push the pace of this one from the outset and to run the visitors off the court before the end of the third quarter. Note that the Warriors have won 19 straight and 40 of 42 in Oakland. Anthony Davis rallied his team from a 25 point deficit but would ultimately come up short in Game 1, the big man finished with 35 points and seven boards, but suffice it to say, I believe this now sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Pelicans; they gave it their absolute best shot and still were unable to get the SU victory. Knowing that they did survive New Orleans' best effort is a huge mental boost for Golden State, I am fully expecting the Warriors to come out extremely confident this evening. Look for Golden State to stretch the now deflated Pelicans defense today, in my professional opinion, the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the WARRIORS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Portland Trailblazers.

I jumped on this line the second it came out and only got +4.5, most of you would have been able to get in at +5.5, but regardless, I love this selection and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the visitors to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Both teams backed their way into the postseason, but Portland plays with the "revenge" incentive after Memphis swept the regular season series, they last met on March 21st with the Grizz pulling off the 97-86 victory (note that two of those games were decided by six points or fewer). Portland's Damian Lillard summed it up best here: "Last year, Houston beat up on us during the regular season, 3-1," Lillard explained. "We got the best of them in the playoffs. We locked in and got it done. We got the best of San Antonio in the regular season. In the playoffs, we know what happened. Like I said, it's a completely different level of intensity and focus. Everything changes." Portland needs to try its best to turn this into a track meet, it's 102 PPG average is one of the tops in the league and will need to get the stingy Grizzlies on their heels. Memphis struggled down the stretch and I think is ripe for the picking today, play on PORTLAND.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Brooklyn Nets.

While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright victory, I do feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up here and am expecting the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this Game 1 Eastern Conference Opening Round. To say this is a "revenge" game for the Nets would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Hawks would take all four regular season meetings. Brooklyn obviously has nothing to lose today, the pressure is clearly on the Hawks who for the most part had a target on their backs all season long; I definitely feel that this benefits Brooklyn. It's also interesting to note that the Hawks elected to "coast" down the stretch of the regular season so as to give their starters plenty of rest in the playoffs, finishing just 7-8 their last 15 which included a pair of three-game losing streaks. Atlanta fans need to ask themselves seriously, can the Hawks "flip a switch" and instantly re-gain the chemistry and swagger that they had at the start of the year? I think the Hawks will ultimately beat the Nets in this series, but believe it's going to take some time for Atlanta to "get up to speed," a perfect situational factor we're going to take advantage of today. Note the Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest, while Atlanta is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 in the same position. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to BROOKLYN as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Washington Wizards.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Ultimately I think that the Raptors' lack of a true big man will be a major detriment to them in this series. A lot of the focus of this series is of course in the back-court, each team sports strong units, the Raptors have Lowry and DeRozan while the Wizards have Wall and Beal; clearly this area is a "wash." To say this is a "revenge" game for the visitors though would be a massive understatement as Toronto took all three in the regular season series this year and three of four last season; note though that three of the past four meetings have been decided by five points or fewer, with two going into the extra frame. The Wizards remain confident: "With the playoffs here, (regular season results) don't matter," Beal said. "It's a totally different style of basketball. Totally different mentalities, totally different intensity level, totally different atmosphere." With part of the Raptors attention turned to veteran Paul Pierce, I think that WASHINGTON can take advantage this afternoon.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

While I do feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Wolves to take this one down to the wire. LA has gone 0-5 this month, but Minnesota has lost eight straight. The last time that LA won was a 101-99 OT effort over Minnesota back on March 25th. The "revenge factor" definitely comes into play here. Note that LA had six players out in its listless 119-101 setback to Denver on Wednesday and all will also be sitting today. The Wolves can empathize, they also have several key injuries to deal with, but one player to keep your eyes on today is rookie Andrew Wiggins who has averaged 24.3 points in his last nine games and who had 27 in the loss vs. the Lakers last month. From an ATS trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as note that the Wolves are 15-10 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while LA is a poor 9-13 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. Consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well, play on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the hungry and revenge minded home side to find a way to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the hand full of points that it's been afforded tonight. The Spurs beatdown of the Rockets on Wednesday pulled them to within a half-game of Houston in the Southwest Division. San Antonio has been on quite the roll, it's won nine straight overall and two straight in this series, but I think will finally have a letdown here as it will be playing its third game in four days. There's no question the Rockets will be looking to avenge the most recent 110-98 loss on Wednesday and they should definitely feel confident in this position, they have in fact won four straight and seven of the last eight in this series in front of the home town crowd. Note that the Spurs are 0-6 ATS this year as a road favorite of 3 points or less and just 6-8 TS vs. division opponents, while the Rockets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine as a home dog of 3 points or less and 11-2 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Spurs, the motivational situational and strong trend based factors working in favor of HOUSTON are overwhelming and will in the end prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets.

I played against the Spurs last night and while that was obviously a bad call, I think we're getting pretty good line value in this spot and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Rockets to at the very least, keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the hand full of points they've been afforded tonight. The Rockets catch the Spurs amid an awesome run, San Antonio has won 18 of its last 21 games, getting the job done with suffocating defensive pressure. However, now the home side must face the revenge minded Rockets and NBA leading scorer James Harden. Houston has won ten of 12 while averaging 107.1 points - that PPG average rises to 112.7 during the Rockets recent three-game win skein. Note that Harden has been particularly dominant of late, averaging 38.7 PPG on 54.8 percent shooting and 61.5 from beyond the arc; also note that Harden has torched the Spurs whenever given the opportunity in averaging 26.8 over the past eight meetings (his 28 was not enough in his team's 110-106 road defeat on December 28th). Note that Houston is 16-12 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, also 14-7 ATS in its last 21 vs. teams with winning records and 27-22 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest. And note that San Antonio is in fact a poor 5-8 ATS vs. division opponents this season and just 3-4 ATS this year as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to HOUSTON as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BAIL-OUT on the LA Lakers.

I think that the Lakers will keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread they've been afforded in the Battle of LA. The Lakers have lost ten of the last 11 in the series, including a 106-78 beatdown on Sunday, the teams franchise-record 56th defeat. But I think this sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the Clippers, who enjoy a critical three entire days off between their next game vs. Memphis on Saturday: "I don't fully understand the context or the history of everything between the two organizations, but it doesn't matter to me that much, to be honest," assessed first-year Lakers guard Jeremy Lin after the crushing defeat on Sunday. "What happened tonight is definitely not a good feeling, so we want to try to make sure that doesn't happen again on Tuesday." Note that the Lakers are 19-17 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more, while the Clippers are just 16-22 ATS in all home games and only 5-8 ATS after a divisional contest. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the LAKERS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Despite still playing for home court advantage throughout the playoffs, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors and look for the "hungry" home side to at the very least, keep this this one close enough to escape with the comfortable ATS cover with the hand full of points that it's been afforded tonight. The Spurs come into this game having won seven straight and are a lights out 17-3 since February 27th. It's really hard not to imagine the Spurs coming in a tiny bit complacent tonight though, especially after ending Golden State's 12-game run with a 107-92 victory at home on Sunday. The Thunder on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives and have had to overcome injury issues all season. OKC still leads ninth-placed New Orleans by one half-game though and will clearly be looking to get back into the winners circle after losing five of six and three in a row for the first since mid November. Not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the Spurs in my opinion, but it also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as well with a game against division rival Houston at home tomorrow night. The Thunder on the other hand don't play again until Friday, the home side has no excuses this evening, in reality, this is almost a do or die game for for the club. Also note that San Antonio is just 9-10 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU wins, while OKC is 2-0 ATS this year as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range, 18-14 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 3-1 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. While I do feel the that outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with OKLAHOMA CITY.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. This is a revenge game for Russell Westrbrook and the home side who have lost the first two meetings. OKC though has done a pretty good job against Rockets big man Dwight Howard this year, holding him to 9.7 PPG on 9 for 25 shooting. Howard had eight points and seven boards in 18 minutes in his team's 108-101 win at Dallas on Thursday. The Thunder are in a dog fight for the West's eighth seed and will surely be the "hungrier" team today after dropping four of their last five, most recently a lacklustre 100-92 setback at Memphis on Friday. Westbrook has carried the load for the most part this year, he'll need his supporting cast to step up and help today, but note that this is in fact a spot in which the Thunder have excelled in for bettors this season, a great 18-13 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, 22-15 ATS in front of the home town crowd overall and 13-11 ATS in its last 24 vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. And note that this is a position in which the Rockets have been terrible, just 4-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and only 3-9 ATS after a divisional contest. In my opinion, the motivational and trend based factors working in favor of OKLAHOMA CITY are just to big to turn down today.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Dallas Mavericks.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to keep this one competitive and at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that it's been afforded. I jumped on this line the second it came out and only got 3.5, the line has since climbed, so you should hopefully be able to get a better number than I did, but regardless, I still love this selection. The Mavericks are going to be hungry today as they look to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Warriors. It's hard not to imagine Golden State coming in complacent today as it's won 16 of 17 and 11 in a row. Golden State has been winning, but note that its last two games have not been easy, a 110-106 victory over the Clippers on Tuesday and a 107-106 effort over Phoenix on Thursday. I think the visitors come into this contest in a classic letdown spot. While Dallas is assured a place in the postseason, it's been scuffling of late in dropping five of seven, most recently a 108-101 setback by Houston on Thursday. There's no question in my mind that the Mavs come in focused tonight. This is a great situational play in my opinion, but it's also strong from a trend based stand point as note that Golden State is in fact a poor 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99 plus points per game. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to DALLAS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Both teams are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, but each still has a mathematical shot at reaching the promised land. If history is any precedence though, then the Pacers have to be loving their chances as they've won 11 straight in Indiana in this series. Charlotte actually sits just above the Pacers in the playoff race and can secure the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Hornets as they've taken two of three meetings, most recently a hard-fought 103-102 decision on the road on February 8th. Indiana is actually 16-3 in the last 19 in the series, holding Charlotte to an average of just 88.6 points during an 11-game home winning streak and will be extra anxious to return to form after dropping nine of its last 11 overall. While the Hornets have won two of three, note that this is a spot in which the team has struggled in all season for bettors, just 5-7 ATS after a victory by ten points or more, also just 1-5 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. And note that this is in fact a position in which Indiana has excelled in, 10-8 ATS after a loss by ten points or more and 6-4 ATS as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, this game favors the home side on a number of different levels, play on the PACERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Milwaukee Bucks.

I jumped on this line the second it came out and got +3.5 and while it's since gone the other way (is +5 as of writing this analysis), I still love this selection and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Bucks to at the very least, sneak in through the back door with the handful of points they've been afforded tonight. This is a triple revenge spot for Milwaukee as well as Chicago has taken the first three. I also think this sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the visitors who come into this game having won three straight. While the Bulls are rolling, the Bucks are stumbling, dropping eight of their last ten and holding onto sixth spot in the East. In my opinion, desperation breeds motivation and I think the home side is set to keep this one competitive; one player to keep your eyes on is Milwaukee's Michael Carter-Williams who has averaged 12.8 points in 17 games since coming over to the Bucks. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as note that the Bucks are 9-5 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, 8-5 ATS vs. division opponents and 26-19 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Chicago is just 1-2 ATS this season when playing with three or more days of rest, just 2-5 ATS after allowing 85 points or less, only 10-16 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and just 3-8 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to MILWAUKEE as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Dallas Mavericks.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the under-rated visiting side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Both teams will be playing in the postseason, but each comes into this game in different situations. The Mavs have been scuffling, while OKC has still managed to win despite a slew of injuries. As I always like to say: "desperation breeds motivation!" I think this is a great motivational spot bet, the Mavs will be the "hungrier" team today in my opinion and have to be loving the chance to take advantage of this wounded and clearly over-performing home side. Most recently Dallas would take a 61-55 lead into the break vs. Indiana on Sunday, only to come out flat in the second half and ultimately fall 104-99. The Thunder not only have to deal with the loss of all star Kevin Durant for the season, but now also big man Serge Ibaka and while Russell Westbrook continues to pull off the miraculous, I think he'll have a much more difficult time tonight vs. this focused Mavs team. Note that Dallas is 15-12 ATS this year following a non-conference game, while OKC is just 2-8 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest. Play on the MAVERICKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Boston Celtics.

I think the Clippers come in a bit complacent tonight and while I do obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question for the playoff hopeful home side, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for Boston to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it today. This is the final game of a three game road trip for the Clippers, who have won the first two, most recently clinching a playoff spot after thumping the 76ers 119-98 on Friday night. In my opinion, this is sets up as the very definition of a letdown spot, the final game of an Eastern road swing, coming off back-to-back victories and already punching your ticket to the post-season? Conversely, the C's are in a dog fight right now for the final two spots in the East and currently occupy the eighth slot by one-half game over Brooklyn (note that the Nets are at home to the Lakers today). Note that LA loves to get out and push the pace of the game, but Boston is ranked third in the NBA in fast-break points allowed. Also note that the Clippers are just 17-27 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest and just 13-16 ATS in all non-conference games, while the Celtics are 23-15 ATS this season vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest and 16-12 ATS in all non-conference games. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the CELTICS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the LA Lakers.

I think this sets up as a classic let down spot for the Nets and look for the Lakers to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them tonight. Brooklyn is coming off a big and extremely satisfying 106-98 win over Cleveland on Friday and now sits one-half game back of eighth-place Boston in the East. Not only does this set up as a let down spot, it's also a look-ahead spot with a game against the playoff hopeful Pacers on Tuesday. I think LA keeps this one competitive, note that it's 25-21 ATS this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 16-11 ATS in all non-conference games. And note that Brooklyn has struggled in this position all season, a horrible 11-21 ATS in all home games, 4-10 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and just 7-9 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up here after considering all of the above factors, play on the NETS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Pelicans.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. New Orleans is still in the playoff hunt but has struggled of late and will no doubt have its hands full today with the Kings who have been trending in the opposite direction. The Pelicans have lost four straight and sit 3.5 games back of eighth seed Oklahoma City with 11 to play, most recently coming off a 107-100 setback to the Clippers on Sunday, before a frustrating 95-93 loss to the Rockets after blowing an early 17-point lead. I am not going to read too much into the Kings recent play of late though, they've bee playing much better defensively, most recently a 108-99 victory over the Suns on Wednesday, but note that this is a spot in which Sacramento has struggled in mightily for bettors all season, just 4-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and only 4-12 ATS in its last 16 vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. And note that this is a position in which the Pelicans have dominated in for bettors, 7-3 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 23-19 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 99 plus points per contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to NEW ORLEANS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Orlando Magic.

There is just 11 games left for Detroit and it will basically have to run the table as well as get some outside help to make the postseason. With that almost insurmountable task on the front of their collective brains, I think the Pistons are set up for a classic letdown here, the home side (and us!), can definitely take advantage. The Pistons have won three straight, but Charlotte, Brooklyn, Indiana and Boston all are in better shape than Detroit. Orlando has already been looking ahead to next season for quite some time now but would obviously love nothing more than to play spoiler today, despite losing eight of nine including Wednesday's 95-83 setback to Atlanta. Note that the Magic are also getting much closer to full strength after Tobias Harris returned last time out, he had 14 points in his return after a three-game absence; also Channing Frye and Dewayne Dedmon returned. Orlando took the first game of the season series, but the Pistons have taken the last two, this definitely sets up as revenge contest as well for the home side. Also note that Detroit is just 1-2 ATS this year as a road favorite of 3 points or less or pick, while Orlando is 27-24 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. The situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the MAGIC as the savvy move in this contest in my opinion.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Pistons.

Detroit has lost ten straight games SU and would also fall 95-88 to the Grizzlies in Memphis back on November 15th. Memphis is contending for the best record in the West and is coming off a 92-81 victory at home over Denver just last night. Which team do you think will be the "hungrier" today? In my opinion, this is a do or die game for Detroit and because of that, I expect the home side to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the hand full of points that it's been afforded. Detroit has actually lost ten straight in this series. The Pistons though get a big boost today with the expected return of Andre Drummond, who suffered a mild concussion in the team's loss to the Jazz on Monday, as well as welcoming back Tayshaun Prince, who has been dealing with a hip issue. Memphis has started to show some cracks in the armor as well, it committed 20 turnovers in last night's sloppy victory and is averaging 19.8 such miscues over its last four, 6.8 more than its average entering that stretch. Also note that the Grizzlies have dropped three of four on the road and are just 7-8 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days, just 16-18 ATS overall away from friendly confines, only 3-5 ATS after allowing 85 points or less and a brutal 9-20 ATS this season vs. teams with losing records. And note that Detroit is 4-3 ATS when playing with two days of rest, 15-14 ATS in all non-conference games and 17-13 ATS vs. teams with winning records. While I do believe the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the PISTONS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* REVENGE-DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Spurs are coming off a heart-breaking 128-125 OT home loss to Cleveland on Thursday, snapping a six-game win streak and I believe will have a letdown here vs. the lowly and undermanned Timberwolves. These teams have played three times this season and the Spurs have taken all three games, both SU and ATS. The triple revenge factor comes into play for sure. The Wolves are coming off a 113-99 setback at Oklahoma City on Friday and despite being down a couple of key players, this is in fact a spot in which Minnesota has performed extremely well in for bettors this year, a fantastic 12-7 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 14-13 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. And note that San Antonio is just 2-8 ATS this season when playing two days of rest and 11-14 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do think the conditions are finally right for MINNESOTA to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe as I expect the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the healthy amount of points they've been afforded today.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Orlando Magic.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a pretty good team and they're coming off one of their most satisfying victories of the entire year (a 128-125 OT victory over the defending champion Spurs in which Kyrie Irving scored 57 points). That fact alone would make this a pretty good spot bet on the Magic as there's no doubt that this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the visitors, but there are a couple of other extremely strong situational factors which also come into play here and are the reason behind the 10* top play ranking. Not surprisingly, this is also a double revenge game for the Magic which have lost both games this season, both SU and ATS. In fact, to call this a revenge game is a pretty big understatement as Orlando has lost nine straight SU in this series, while going 0-10 ATS. Clearly the Magic players will be "hungry" to break this slide. And note, not only does this set up as a letdown position for the visitors after the massive win over San Antonio, but it also sets up as a "look ahead" spot, as LeBron James and company will be at Miami on Monday night. Suffice it to say, it's not too hard to imagine the Cavs looking past the lowly Wolves tonight. Three big time situational factors collide in this one, grab as many points as you can with the MAGIC.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Both teams come in hot but I think a focused and motivated LeBron James and company will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Cavs certainly come in with plenty of momentum after winning four of their last five, Cleveland is averaging 102.9 points on 45.6 percent shooting, while allowing 98.4 points on 45.1 percent shooting. James is averaging 26 points and 7.3 assists; Kyrie Irving is averaging 21.4 points and 5.2 assists, while big man Kevin Love is grabbing 10.2 boards. If Cleveland has had one weakness this season it's clearly been its play on the road, but the Cavs come into this game playing their best ball of the year, they've won 19 of their last 20 games SU when topping 100 points. After a slow start, the defending champs have won six straight and are averaging 101.6 points on 45.7 percent shooting while giving up 97.4 points on 44.4 percent shooting. The usual suspects continue to lead the way, Kawhi Leonard is averaging 15.7 points and 7.5 boards, while guard Tony Paker is averaging 14.7 points and 4.9 assists. Note that Manu Ginobili is questionable with an illness in this one. This play however is based mainly on strong ATS trends as note that the Cavs are 15-13 ATS this season in all non-conference games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. good offensive teams that average 99-plus points per contest. Conversely, note that San Antonio is just 11-12 ATS in non-conference contests this season and just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams that score 99 plus points per game. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to CLEVELAND as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST BEATDOWN on the Detroit Pistons.

AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.

This is an 8* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the Brooklyn Nets.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Brooklyn is still in playoff contention and will be looking to establish itself against a Jazz team which has been much better defensively of late; in my opinion, this is a great situational play as I expect the home side to push the pace of this game from the outset and note that the Nets will be especially motivated here after consecutive home defeats, a 115-91 setback to Charlotte on Wednesday and a 108-100 OT loss to Phoenix on Friday. The Jazz have been surprisingly good on the defensive end of the floor since the All Star break, but I think will have their hands full today vs. the highly focused Nets which play with revenge after falling 108-73 in Utah on January 24th. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as note that Utah is a poor 13-14 ATS in its last 27 after allowing 85 points or less, while Brooklyn is 16-11 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season, 11-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, 14-11 ATS in non-conference games and 17-12 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the NETS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Toronto Raptors.

In my opinion, this is a great situational play. Toronto has been scuffling of late and embarks on a tough three-game road trip most likely without the services of leading scorer Kyle Lowry. If Lowry doesn't play, it's not anything this incredibly deep team can't compensate for though. In fact, if Lowry does sit, I think it'll be a rallying point for the rest, a definite motivational/psychological factor that we can take advantage of. Lowry has sat the last three contests but is travelling with the team on this trip, with games in OKC and San Antonio upcoming. With consecutive games vs. playoff hopefuls on the horizon, starting this trip off on the "right foot" against the 26-33 Hornets (just 14-16 at home), will be paramount for the visitors today. And it may come as a surprise, but this is a revenge game for Toronto as the Hornet have in fact won five straight over the Raptors overall and seven straight in the series in front of the home town crowd. Charlotte is clinging to the eighth spot in the East and has won three straight, but I think will have a letdown here, as note this is a spot in which the Hornets have already struggled in for bettors this season, coming into tonight's game having gone a poor 3-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest, just 3-4 ATS after three or more consecutive victories and only 3-7 ATS in their last ten vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99 plus points per contest. The Raptors need to rally here, they've lost six of their last seven, most recently a 120-112 setback to Cleveland on Wednesday, Toronto coming up just short after rallying from a 19-point second half deficit to take the lead at one point. With or without Lowry, I think the RAPTORS come to play today and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Memphis Grizzlies.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visiting side to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that it's been afforded in this one. Houston is coming off a 104-96 loss in Atlanta on Tuesday, blowing a 14 point half time lead. Granted, James Harden wasn't in the line-up because of a one-game suspension, but it still makes today's contest set up as a bit of a letdown spot nonetheless. Harden will be back in the line-up for the home side tonight, and Tony Allen will be back for Memphis after he was suspended for one game. The Grizz will undoubtedly be eager to atone for last night's 93-82 home loss to Utah in which they were outrebounded 55-37 and will need to be focused tonight as they sit just 1.5 games ahead of the Rockets. I think this is going to be an extremely competitive game with a playoff like atmosphere, but from a trend based stand point, this selection is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as note that Memphis is a great 9-5 ATS this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 18-11 ATS vs. teams with winning records. And conversely, note that this is a spot in which the Rockets have struggled in all season, a poor 5-6 ATS vs. division opponents. I think the slumping, but clearly "hungry" GRIZZLIES take this one down to the wire.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia 76ers.

While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright win, I do definitely feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up as I expect the home side to get caught "looking ahead" to its next game, leaving the back door open just enough for the lowly 76ers to sneak in through down the stretch. The Thunder's up and down season continues, Kevin Durant is still out but the home side is expected to have Russell Westbrook back in the line-up tonight. To say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement though I think as OKC has won 11 straight in the series. The Thunder are most recently coming off a 108-101 win over the Lakers on Sunday and also beat the 76ers 103-91 back on December 5th. Philadelphia will surely be eager to break out of its road slump as well, having lost 12 straight away from friendly confines, most recently falling 114-103 in Toronto on Monday. But as mentioned off the top, I think this is a great "spot" for us to take advantage as it's not to hard to imagine the home side looking ahead to its game in Chicago tomorrow night. A great situational selection, grab as many points as you can with PHILADELPHIA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Memphis Grizzlies.

For a number of different reasons I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Memphis shot a season-best 59.4 percent in a 101-97 victory at Minnesota on Tuesday and I expect this team to build off that performance. In all the Grizzlies would tally 52 points in the paint while the bench would go 14 of 22. The Grizzlies still hold a 1.5 game edge over Houston for the division lead and will be tested today as the Jazz have done a lot better defensively of late, holding opponents to 39.1 percent shooting in winning six of their last eight. But note that Utah has failed to win three consecutive games this year despite winning two in a row five times previously and I don't see that trend changing today. Also note that the visitors are in fact a poor 11-13 ATS in their last 24 after allowing 85 points or less, while Memphis is 23-16 ATS in its last 39 when playing with two days of rest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the GRIZZLIES as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

I like the Cavs to bounce back with a big effort after coming up short in Friday's 105-103 OT setback in Houston on Friday. Cleveland would actually win the rebound battle decisively, 53-36. The home side gets a big boost today as well with the expected return of Kyrie Irving who will be looking to help his team win a 12th straight in front of the home town crowd. Note that the Cavs have been outscoring opponents by an average of 14.8 points during their 11-game win skein in Cleveland. The Celtics would take the Cavs down to the wire in the team's first meeting of the season, a 122-121 setback in Boston back on November 14th; note that LeBron James is averaging 30.4 points vs. the C's for his highest mark against any team. Boston had won three straight and had a 26 point lead over the Warriors on Sunday but fell apart down the stretch to lose 106-101 and I think today's contest definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot for it after that disheartening setback. Note that Boston is just 11-12 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more, while Cleveland is 8-4 ATS vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99 plus points per contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the CAVALIERS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks.

For a number of different situational and trend based reasons, I think the visitors will keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. This is a double revenge game for New York which has lost both ATS vs. Detroit this year. It's not hard to imagine the Pistons coming in a bit complacent vs. the lowly Knicks, they've won seven of their last 11 games. Conversely, New York will surely be hungry here after losing eight straight. From a motivational stand point, this one sets up perfectly. Detroit is pushing for a playoff spot and for the most part has been pretty good the last eight weeks, but I simply feel this is a bad spot for it. Whatever could go wrong for the Knicks this year has, and in no way will I try to convince you this is a good team, but note that they are in fact a fantastic 5-2 ATS this year as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, also 6-3 ATS following a divisional contest and 9-8 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. And note that this is a position in which the Pistons have struggled in for bettors, just 13-18 ATS this season in front of the home town crowd and just 1-5 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the KNICKS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Lakers.

A couple of bottom feeders go head to head here and as we can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think these two inept teams are pretty evenly matched. I agree of course, but think that the home court advantage can’t be overlooked in this one and with a strong revenge factor working in its favor, in my opinion the savvy move in this contest is indeed on LA. The C’s won 113-96 in LA back on December 5th. The Lakers will also be especially motivated after falling 114-105 at home to Brooklyn on Friday. This is a great situational play though as Boston comes to town without top scorer and leading rebounder Jared Sullinger, who will be out for the foreseeable future with a stress fracture in his left foot. Boston comes in with zero momentum as well after falling 109-101 to Sacramento on Friday. Note that the Celtics are interestingly just 9-11 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, while the Lakers are 19-18 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 10-7 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the LAKERS as the correct move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Thunder rolled into the All-Star break with five wins in six games and sitting just a half-game behind eighth-place Phoenix, I expect the home side to make the most of this game. Dallas is in fifth in the West and is expected to have Rajon Rondo back in the line-up after missing six games due to fractures in his nasal passage. Note though that the Mavericks once prolific offense sputtered over the final month of the first half and I think that the newly acquired Amare Stoudemire will not have an immediate impact for the team. As mentioned off the top, OKC dominated its way into the break, PG Russell Westbrook had 41 points in the All Star game to earn MVP honors and he’ll be eager to help his team earn a rare win here, the Thunder actually play with triple revenge, most recently losing 112-107 on December 28th. Note that Dallas is just 8-16 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records, while OKC is 14-10 ATS in front of the home town crowd. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to OKLAHOMA CITY as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Memphis Grizzlies.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. What more can be said about Atlanta right now that hasn’t literally been said a million times by every NBA analyst in America, after a 19-game win streak ended in New Orleans, the team has bounced back with two straight victories, including a 124-116 home win over Golden State on Friday. But now the team travels across the country to face the West’s second best team and in my opinion, this definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors (note that the Hawks were outrebounded 51-38 in the win over the Warriors). This is also a revenge game for the Grizzlies after they fell 96-86 in Atlanta back on January 7th; note though that the Grizzlies were playing the tail end of a 4-7 stretch and did not have the services of Zach Randolph at the time. Memphis has won 12 of its 14 games since that setback. The home side will also be particuarly motivated after falling 90-89 at West-worst Minnesota on Friday. And a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered as the Grizzlies are 8-1 vs. the East at home this year. A great situational play in my opinion, play on MEMPHIS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the LA Clippers.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think the Clippers will be the “hungrier” side today, they’ve lost three straight and one more setback would represent the teams longest slide this season. LA returns to OKC for the first time since the Playoffs in which the team lost Game and 5 on some controversional calls, and then eventually the series in front of the home town crowd in Game 6: “That game is still on my mind," Clippers’ forward Blake Griffin said last night. "It's the one game I've probably watched the most in the year's time. I couldn't tell you how many times I watched that over the summer." While LA did beat the Thunder 93-90 on October 30th, it would fail to cover the spread in that one, and the “revenge” could not have felt all that great with Oklahoma City star Kevin Durant sitting out due to injury. Durant returned in his team’s 116-113 loss to New Orleans on Friday, but note that home side will be without the services of backup center Kendrick Perkins, who was suspended for one game by the NBA on Saturday for head butting the Pelicans’ Tyreke Evans. "Guys need to step up, we need to find a way and we need to be better," Griffin continued. "You can't get too low, but our sense of urgency needs to go sky high right now." Note that LA is 5-4 ATS this year after playing three consecutive road games, while OKC is just 12-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. This one is coming right down to the wire in my opinion, grab the points with the CLIPPERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Orlando Magic.

For a number of different reasons I think that the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is a great situational play, Orlando will be playing its first game after firing coach Jacque Vaughn and will be despertately trying to avoid losing 11 straight for the second time in three seasons. The Magic will be clearly motivated tonight and a date vs. the inept Lakers who have lost eight straight on the road is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion to turn things around. This is a great spot bet as Orlando has looked pretty decent of late for the most part, most recently coming off a competitive 110-103 setback to the Spurs on Wednesday. This is also a revenge game for the Magic after falling 101-84 to the Lakers back on January 9th; note that since that win LA has dropped 11 of 12, most recetly a disheartening 113-105 OT loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. And note that LA is just 7-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season, while Orlando is 22-17 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to ORLANDO as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Whether Thunder star Kevin Durant plays or not, I think that there are enough motivational and situational factors working in favor of the visitors today and expect them to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This sets up as a natuarl let down spot for Anthony Davis and the Pelicans after they beat the Hawks 115-110 on Monday, breaking Atlanta’s winning streak at 19 straight. If you watched that game, you may have thought that New Orleans had won Game 7 of the NBA Finals after the win. While it was a solid victory, it was a bit dramatic in my opinion and suffice it to say, after that emotional and clearly satisfying REGULAR SEASON win, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to a letdown here for the home side. Not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but it’s also a double revenge scenario for OKC, most recently a 101-99 setback at home on December 21st to the Pelicans, a game in which Durant sat out due to injury as well. The Thunder can still win and play without Durant, Russell Westbrook and company will also be highly motivated to end a four-game road losing streak; however, take note that the visitors do come in with some momentum after beating Orlando 104-97 on Monday, Westbrook posted his second triple-double of the year with 25 points, 14 assists and 11 boards. A great spot bet, two classic “spots” are working against the home side, I think the THUNDER can take advantage and take this one down to the wire.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Wizards.

I think this is a great situational play and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the “hungry” Wizards to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Atlanta finally fell in a 115-110 loss to New Orleans on Tuesday and I believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side. It’s hard not to imagine the Hawks having a mental lapse today after winning 19 straight, equaling the fifth-longest single-season winning streak in league history; note that the team would go 9-0 on the road during the epic win skein. Now also throw in the “look ahead” factor with West leading Golden State coming to town on Friday, then this play gets even stronger. And then now also throw in the fact that the Wizards play with “double revenge” from this season alone, including an embarrassing 120-89 rout on January 11th. And finally, Washington will clearly be focused on the task at hand, it’s dropped three straight overall coming into this one, the last two both coming by just four points. The Hawks run was impressive, but I’m not even close to “crowning their asses” yet, the situational factors are overwhelming and they all point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Washington Wizards.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Wizards are on the verge of their longest skid of the year in front of the home town crowd after a 21-point rally came up short in a 120-116 OT setback to the Raptors on Saturday. Whether John Wall plays or not matters not in my opinion, Washington is loaded and will certainly be the “hungrier” team here in my opinion. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Hornets have won three in a row over the Wizards, including three of the past four in the Nation’s capital. But with a game between the teams in Charlotte on Thursday, I think it just lends weight to the home side playing its heart out tonight. And note that Charlotte is just 3-5 ATS vs. division opponents this year, while Washington is 25-22 ATS in its last 47 after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Dallas Mavericks.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visiting side to find a way to get the job done and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. As I always say: “desperation breeds motivation,” and in my opinion, Dallas will clearly be the “hungrier” team tonight as it looks to snap out of a season-worst losing streak. Here’s a perfect opponent to take your frustrations out on as the Heat will be without stars Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng. Miami has come apart at the seams of late, it most recently allowed the Bucks to shoot 54.9 percent while also sending them to the line 30 times in a 109-102 setback on Tuesday. From a situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this, Dallas is clearly under-achieving and it will be all hands on deck today to break the slide; conversely, Miami is now playing its first game without star Wade, making this a prime spot for a letdown. Now also throw in the fact that the Mavs play with revenge after falling to the Heat 105-96 on November 9th (a seventh straight victory in the series for Miami), and this play becomes extremely strong motivationally as well. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, all signs point to DALLAS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I played this line right when it came out, it’s since gone up a bit as of writing, but may settle back down to 16.5, but regardless, I love this pick and think that the lowly Wolves can catch the surprising home side a bit complacent here and expect them to comfortably sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch. What more can be said about the Atlanta Hawks right now that hasn’t literally been said by every NBA analyst across North American a million times by now, obviously the team is playing at an extremely high level on both ends of the court. I won’t try to convince you that the Wolves are a good team which has just been unlucky this season, injuries and other factors have Minnesota in the cellar for a reason, it’s a club which is in transition this season. However, what I would point out is that after covering 13 straight games and with contests vs. Minnesota today and Brooklyn (just 18-25) on Wednesday, there’s no question in my mind that this short stretch vs. the league’s worst teams definitely sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the home side. Conversely, the Wolves have lost three straight (both SU and ATS) and will be “hungry” to not get blown out here with the knowledge that the eyes of the basketball World are all on the city of Atlanta right now. I think this is a few too many points, grab as many as you can with the WOLVES.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago has been struggling of late, but a game vs. the defending and surging NBA champions is just what the doctor ordered to get re-focused in my opinion, while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Bulls are most recently coming off a 108-94 loss at Cleveland on Monday, the team’s sixth setback in its last eight games. There’s no time like the present to turn things around though, Chicago next visits Dallas, Miami and then NBA-best Golden State: “We've got to decide when enough is enough," Bulls’ coach Tom Thibodeau assessed last night. "We're going to look at everything, come in, look at the film, get to work; we've got to get better. It's that simple. The way we are playing is not acceptable, so we've got to change it." Clearly the issue with the Bulls has been their play on the defensive end of the court, normally the strength of the team, Chicago has given up more than 100 points in five consecutive games, something it hasn’t done since 2010: “It's just that no matter who is on the floor or who is out or who is coming back we just have to compete," star guard Derrick Rose said. "My biggest thing is competing and making sure we let the opponent know we've come to play. We're midway through the season; it's no excuses." San Antonio endured a tough stretch as well but comes in red hot, it’s won four straight and eight of ten, most recently thumping Denver 109-99 on Tuesday. Two teams moving in opposite directions, but as I always like to say: “desperation breeds motivation.” I think we’ll see a highly concerted effort from the home side in this one, this game is basically a must win with three tough road contests in a row on the horizon. Chicago may be a bit banged up, but from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that the Spurs are just 3-5 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU wins and only 7-10 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. And note that the Bulls are 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. As I said off the top, I’ll hardly be surprised if CHICAGO wins this one outright.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Rockets.

Some times I believe it’s necessary to completely dissect a contest, looking at situational, motivational and strong trend based factors, and in others I feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a game. That’s the case here. These are a couple of the league’s best and hottest teams going head to head, but so far Golden State has gotten the better of Houston this season, it’s taken all three games both SU and ATS. “Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor and one which simply can’t be overlooked today in my opinion, while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that this is too many points to be giving up and look for the visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Also note that this is a spot the Rockets have performed admirably in for bettors already this season, 12-8 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and 3-1 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. And note, this is in fact a position in which the Warriors have struggled in going just 9-10 ATS in their last 19 after allowing 85 points or less. Grab as many points as you can with HOUSTON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Indiana Pacers.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Anyone that’s followed me for any length of time knows that I am primarily a situational handicapper. That said, I don’t conform to any one particular handicapping methodology and believe that being flexible with one’s approach is the best way to take advantage of longterm profits. One angle that I do always like to take advantage of is lopsided numbers or trends. Atlanta is playing unbelievably this season, it’s 18-2 SU in its last 20 and an amazing 17-3 ATS, covering the spread in its last 11 straight. Indiana had more questions than answers coming into this season and wasn’t expected to do that well, it’s certainly been struggling of late, not only has it lost five straight SU, it’s also lost six straight ATS. While I will admit that the “Law of averages” is flawed in many ways, I have always believed that lop-sided numbers and trends have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves over the short, mid and long term. These two massively lop-sided trends collide on Wednesday night, in my opinion clearly putting the value on the Pacers in this one. Now throw in the fact that the visitors play with double revenge from two losses this season, and this play becomes even stronger. But finally, take note that this is a spot that Indiana has actually performed very well in for bettors as it’s 14-9 ATS on the road this year and 13-6 ATS after a non-conference game. And note that this is a position in which the Hawks have actually struggled in, they’re a poor 3-4 ATS this season after allowing 85 points or less (coming off a 93-82 win over the Pistons on Monday). While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright win, I do think that the writing is on the wall and a competitive game is in the cards, grab as many points as you can with the PACERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Pistons.

For a number of different reasons I think that the surprising Detroit Pistons will keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door vs. the surprising Atlanta Hawks. The Pistons have won seven straight on the road and have been a completely different team since releasing Josh Smith. I think Atlanta finally has a letdown here, it’s coming off back to back victories in Chicago and Toronto, Saturday’s 107-99 victory over the Bulls matched the franchise’s second-longest win streak. While obviously not always, success does breed complacency, there’s no question in my mind which will be the “hungrier” team today, the Pistons play with “double revenge” from this season alone, the latest was a 106-103 setback in Detroit on January 9th. After a 5-23 start, Detroit has gone 4-1 its last five, which is part of an 11-2 stretch that now has it just one game out of the final playoff spot in the East. Most recently the Pistons destroyed Philadelphia 107-89 on Saturday. Note that during their win streak on the road, the Pistons have won by an average of 11.6 points per game with big time wins in San Antonio, Dallas and Toronto. Simply put, Detroit is a team that competes away from friendly confines. From a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that the Pistons are 5-1 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 5-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more. And note that Atlanta is just 11-15 ATS in its last 26 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. I think the writing is on the wall and an extremely competitive battle is in the cards, while I do think the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder are coming off a resounding 127-115 victory over Western Conference leading Golden State on Friday and I think will carry that momentum over here. Oklahoma City will also be looking to avoid a fifth straigh road loss in this one as well as trying to move back to the .500 mark. This is also a revenge game for OKC after falling 103-102 in Orlando back on February 7th, a win which snapped a five-game losing streak in the series for the Magic. A date vs. defensively challenged Orlando is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked offensively as it’s is giving up 111.0 PPG on 51.2 percent shooting over its last three. The Magic are coming off a 106-96 loss to Memphis on Friday and is just 7-11 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year. I think a very focused and hungry OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER teams leaves Orlando with a decisive victory on Sunday night.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Antonio Spurs.

For a number of different reasons I think that the home side is the savvy move here. Despite Phoenix being one of the hottest clubs in the league right now, it’s rarely had any success whatsoever in San Antonio and I definitley think that strong trend of futility continues in this one. The Spurs will be especially motivated to return to their winning ways after losing 105-104 to Detroit on Tuesday, a game in which they were ahead by three with ten seconds, only to fall for the eighth time in 12 games. Phoenix is 10-2 since mid December, but needed to hold on for dear life in Tuesday’s 113-111 victory over Minnesota. But as mentioned off the top, the Suns have struggled in San Antonio, losing nine of the last ten there. Also note that the Spurs will be playing with the revenge factor after falling 94-89 in Phoenix back on October 31st. It’s a perfect situation for us to take advantage of, the home side is without question the “hungrier” team, while the Suns come in a bit complacent. And from a trend based stand point, this selection is about as solid as you could possibly ask for, note that Phoenix is just 8-9 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more, while San Antonio is 6-2 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. In my opinion, after taking all of the above factors into consideration, all signs do indeed point to the SPURS as the correct call in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Sacramento Kings.

While I do believe that the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to keep this game a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Thunder are coming off a 117-91 loss at Golden State on Monday. Note that OKC is not expected to have guard Dion Waiters available for this one yet; and that’s bad news for a bench which, other than Anthony Morrow who had 17 points, combined to score just 20 in the loss to the Warriors. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well as the Thunder have won the last 12 straight in this series, including two already this year (both SU and ATS). But here’s a big opportunity for the Kings to bounce back, this is the first of six straight in front of the home town crowd, note that Sacramento is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range. It’s my opinion that this spread is just a little large, play on the KINGS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST ASSASSIN on the Chicago Bulls.

A couple of the league’s top teams meet on Monday night and for a number of different situational and strong trend basesd reasons, when the smoke clears at the end of this one I expect the home side to a find a way to get the job done. The Bulls come in with plenty of momentum, they’ve won nine of their last ten games and are expected to welcome back gritty guard Jimmy Butler to the lineup (Butler missed Saturday’s 109-104 OT win over Boston to attend a funeral); note that Butler was named the NBA player of the week on December 29th. Chicago is riding high with Pau Gasol, the four-time All-Star is averaging 18 points and leading the team with 11.2 boards; note that Gasol scored a season-high tying 29 with 16 rebounds in the win over the C’s: “I’m a confident guy," Gasol reflected afterwards. "I'm a competitor. You always have to hope for the best and be positive and optimistic. I didn't know what was going to happen, how I was going to fit in. But I knew I was going to try and do my best to provide everything and give us the best chance to win a title." I chose the Rockets to cash as champion at 15-1 this year and for the most part the team looks pretty solid, it’s 23-10 after crushing Miami 115-79 on Saturday. Home court advantage can’t be overlooked in this one though, note that Houston is a poor 0-3 ATS this year after allowing 85 points or less, while Chicago is a solid 8-6 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to the BULLS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on the Washington Wizards.

For a number of different situational and strong trend based reasons, I think the Wizards can at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think New Orleans comes in flat/complacent today, it’s coming off a big 111-83 victory over the Rockets on Friday. Conversely, there’s no question in my mind which of these two teams will be the “hungrier”, this is the final game of four-game trip for Washington and it’s dropped the first three vs. some very stiff competition in Dallas, OKC and San Antonio. And as mentioned off the top, from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that Washington is already 6-5 ATS in 11 non-conference games this year and 41-29 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that New Orleans is a poor 3-4 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest and just 4-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Sacramento Kings.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door in what should be a highly competitive affair. The Pistons have been on quite a roll since waiving Josh Smith, winning four in a row. Detroit hasn’t won five in a row in more than five years and suffice it to say, I think the “wheels come off the bus” today. As primarily a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of games I keep my eyes open for, in my opinion this definitely sets up as a ledown spot for the suddenly over achieving Pistons; and note, it’s not hard to imagine Detroit getting caught looking ahead to its lengthy road trip starting against the defending Champions on Tuesday. Sacramento has definitely been struggling, but is coming off a 110-107 victory over the Wolves last time out. However, bettors have been getting killed betting on the Kings of late as the team has failed to cover the spread in 11 straight contests (you may not know, but one angle that I always try to exploit is “lopsided” numbers or trends; this play falls directly into that system). This is also a revenge spot for the Kings after they fell 95-90 to Detroit at home as 5.5 point favorites on December 13th. It’s interesting to note that Sacramento is 3-1 ATS this season after playing three or more consecutive road games, while Detroit is a poor 4-12 ATS in front of the home town crowd and just 2-8 ATS when playing the role of favorite. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the KINGS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the New York Knicks.

A couple of cellar dwellers face off in the Big Apple on Friday night and only one will leave MSG with a victory; in my opinion, there are enough situational, motivational and strong trend based factors working in favor of the home side to indeed pull the trigger on the Knicks in this matchup. New York is now on the cusp of another 10-game losing streak, its second of the year. The Knicks are also in the midst of their longest home losing streak in franchise history. Now also throw in the fact that the Pistons beat New York in Detroit at the start of the season, and there’s no question in my mind which of these two teams will be the “hungrier.” This also sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the suddenly over-achieving Pistons who have won three straight after Tuesday’s 109-86 effort in Orlando. Here’s a quote from Carmelo Anthony that you’ve never heard before: "I've never been 5-29," said Anthony yesterday. "It's getting testing not to get frustrated and it's tough to keep a smile on my face." As mentioned off the top, there are several strong ATS trends working in favor of New York here, the most pertinent being that Detroit is just 1-8 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and only 5-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records. And note that the Knicks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after playing three or more consective road games. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on NEW YORK.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Dallas Mavericks.

It likely doesn’t come as a big surprise to learn that the Mavericks are the highest scoring team in the league, however it may come as a surprise to learn that the Thunder are the best team defensively this year. This two dynamic teams meet on Sunday night and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect the “offense” to overcome the “defense.” The Thunder have won two in a row and have done so with the strong play of Russell Westbrook, filling in once again for an injured Kevin Durant. Most recently OKC beat Charlotte 98-75 on Friday. Dallas became even more dangerous after adding point guard Rajon Rondo to the lineup, the Mavericks are coming off a 102-98 win over the Lakers on Friday: "Just getting a lot more comfortable," said Rondo after scoring 21 vs. LA. "Coach (Rick Carlisle) just told me to try to get in the paint. I try to take what the defense gives me. We basically just have to communicate on the floor. The game is still the same." In my opinion, Westbrook and the Thunder have been playing over their heads without Durant and I think it finally catches up to them tonight; note that OKC is just 4-5 ATS this year after a win by 10 points or more, while Dallas is 8-4 ATS this season vs. teams with losing records. I’m playing the MAVERICKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Antonio Spurs.

A loss on Sunday would mark the Spurs seventh loss in their last eight games, something San Antonio has not done since 1997 when big man Tim Duncan was still playing at Wake Forest. Suffice it to say, I think this proud, revenge minded champion comes to play today and finds a way to get job done at the end of the night. Houston signed Josh Smith and then went out and beat Memphis 117-111 in overtime on Friday, Smith would score 21. In my mind, this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the Rockets after that big victory. Conversely, there’s no question which team will be the “hungrier”, not only will the Spurs be looking to atone for their recent lacklutre efforts, they’ll also be looking to avenge a listless 98-81 setback to the Rockets on November 6th, a game in which San Antonio played without Duncan and Manu Ginobili; both are expected to be in the line-up today (the Spurs have in fact lost six straight in this series). Whether Tony Parker or Kawhi Leonard play today or not doesn’t matter in my opinion, note that Houston is a poor 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while San Antonio is 12-8 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. A great situational opportunity, play on the SPURS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Detroit Pistons.

While I obviously believe that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. There’s no question which team will be the “hungrier” here. Detroit returns from the X-Mas break without Josh Smith in the lineup, the high-priced forward was let go: "He's taking the most shots," Detroit coach Stan Van Gundy argued yesterday. "He's got the ball in his hands a lot. We would have had to have reduced his role offensively. I don't think he would have been happy with that at this point in his career. ... I thought it was best for him, I thought it was best for us. If we were 12-16 or 10-18, we probably wouldn't be here. We're 5-23. That calls, in every respect, for some adjustment. Some things had to be different." There’s no sugar-coating Detroit’s play to date, it’s struggled on both ends of the court, but from a situational stand point I think this is a golden opportunity to take advantage of, whenever an organization makes a big move like the one that the Pistons just made, invariably the team will respond with a resounding effort across the board and that’s exactly what I expect here. And to say this is a revenge spot would be a bit of an understatement I think as Indiana has won eight of the last nine in the series. I also think that the Pacers come in a bit complacent here after winning two straight and who could be without the services of big man Roy Hibbert who is listed as day to day. Note that Indiana is just 1-2 ATS this year after allowing 85 points or less, while Detroit is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 after scoring 105 points or more. Grab as many points as you can with DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Heat.

This is a situatioally based selection. I played on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday and they’d fall apart down the stretch and fail to cover with the large 14 point spread in Cleveland, an unfortunate setback, but we can make up for it here. The Cavaliers have won three in a row SU and back to back ATS, and after tonight play in Orlando on Boxing day. Miami on the other hand has lost three of its last four, including an embarrassing 91-87 home loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday. Of course LeBron will be “pumped” today, but in my opinion the Heat will clearly be the “hungrier” team in this position. Not only will Miami be eager to beat its old teammate, but it will also be extremely focused to atone for the recent lacklustre overall play of late. From strictly a motivational stand point, there’s no question in my mind which team has the advantage. And note that one area that the Cavs have consistently been mediocre in this year is their play on the road, while they do come to town with a 6-5 SU record away from friendly confines, note that they’re just 4-7 ATS. Also note that Cleveland has already shown a penchant for having a “letdown” in this position as it’s a poor 3-5 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU victories. It would be great to have Chris Bosh in the line-up for us, and if I were 100% sure he was going to play, then this selection likely would have garnered a 10* rating, but regardless of whether he plays or not, I think MIAMI is indeed the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Orlando Magic.

For a number of different situational, motivational and trend based reasons, I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Magic will certainly be the more motivated as they look to snap a four-game slide. Boston would win its first game without Rajon Rondo in the lineup, but then quickly fell apart in the second, a 100-84 setback at Miami on Sunday. Boston shot just 39.8 percent in their lowest-scoring game of the year and unfortunately for the C’s, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as the Celtics have lost five of their last six away from friendly confines. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, Boston would beat Orlando 109-92 on Wednesday, the C’s 12th win in the last 13 in the series. And from a trend based stand point, this is a very solid play, note that Boston is just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 after scoring 85 points or less, while Orlando is 10-6 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. Play on ORLANDO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

For me, this is strictly a situationally based selection; I believe this to be a classic “letdown/lookahead” spot for the home side and like the visitors to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Of course, this is going to be a “weird” game for the Cavs’ Kevin Love, he’ll be playing his first game against his former team for the first time. And not to be outdone, Cleveland then plays on Christmas day in Miami, LeBron James in South Beach for the first time since his trade. This is a perfect situation that both the Wolves (and us!) can take advantage of. And for me, it’s as simple as that. I believe the Cavs’ big weapons come in a bit distracted, leaving the back door open just enough for the visitors to sneak in through down the stretch. Play on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets.

A couple of the best in the West face off on Monday night and as you can tell by the line, the oddsmakers pretty much think this is a pick-em game. And why not? The Blazers are the hottest team in the league right now, but the Rockets start has been equally as impressive and they clearly have the home court advantage working for them. So where’s the value? In my opinion, home floor advantage is a factor which can’t be overlooked, I look for Houston to take care of business in its own building. We also can’t overlook the massive revenge factor, as it was Damian Lillard’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer in Game 6 in last season’s Western Conference playoffs which sent the Rockets packing for the summer. Portland has been fantastic of late, it’s coming off a 114-88 win over New Orleans on Saturday, which was on the heels of beating the Spurs 129-119 in a triple OT thriller the night before. Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Portland. Houston on the other hand comes in razor focused, it’s already lost back to back games for the second time this season. There are a ton of situational and motivational factors working in favor of the Rockets today, but also note that the Blazers are just 6-7 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while Houston is 9-7 ATS this season versus good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. This number should be a little larger in my opinion, play on the ROCKETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* PACIFIC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Sacramento Kings.

After losing to the Lakers earlier in the month and looking to avoid a season-high sixth straight loss overall, I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Sacramento was SO close to stopping the slide last time out as well, big man DeMarcus Cousins returned to go 8 of 12 for 27 points, 11 rebounds and five assists, but it wasn’t enough as the Kings would fall 108-107 to the Bucks for their tenth loss in their last 12 games. Sacramento went 2-8 with Cousins sidelined, but I think the team will come in focused here. Also note, the way in which the Kings lost to the Lakers this year will not be sitting well with them, they allowed Kobe Bryant to score nine of his 32 points over the final 3:15, LA would rally from a seven point deficit to win 98-95 (Cousins did not play in that one). Note though that there is some room to read between the lines in that performance, Black Mamba shot only 11 of 27 that night and he’s been even worse since, he was just 12 of 15 on Friday and was held to just nine points in a disheartening 104-103 home to loss to Oklahoma City. The Kings will also be hungry to avoid a five game slide in front of the home town crowd. It’s a perfect set of motivational and situational factors that we can take advantage of. Also note that LA is already a poor 5-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points or more per contest and 1-3 ATS vs. divisional opponents, while Sacramento is already 2-1 ATS vs. division opponents this year, 2-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and 6-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in its previous contest. After considering all of the above factors, I believe this number is just a little low; play on SACRAMENTO.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Pistons.

For a number of different reasons I think that the home side can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this matchup. I believe that Toronto finally comes in a bit complacent here, it’s won four straight; conversely, there’s no question in my mind that Detroit will be the “hungrier” team tonight as it’s looks to avoid a 13th straight home loss, the Pistons worse such run in nearly half a century. I also believe this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for Toronto which would hammer Brooklyn 105-89 at home on Wednesday, getting some minor revenge after the Nets knocked it out of the playoffs last year. Detroit has lost 11 straight at The Palace of Auburn Hills after falling to Dallas 117-106 on Wednesday. There are now plenty of trade rumors swirling around the Pistons, which will only have Detroit players on their toes in my opinion. This is also a “revenge” spot for the home side after Toronto took all three meetings last year. And with a game vs. the lowly Knicks at home on Sunday, it’s hard not to imagine Toronto taking this stretch of play a little lightly. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that the Raptors are a poor 4-7 ATS this year after a win by 10 points or more, while Detroit is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 after scoring 105 points or more. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, there’s no question in my mind that the PISTONS are the savvy move here.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I jumped on this line before the news of the Rajon Rondo trade, but regardless of whatever it closes at, I love this selection for obvious reasons and look for the hungry Wolves to take advantage of a suddenly discombobulated Celtics team. Boston shipped Rondo to Dallas for Jameer Nelson and some draft picks and suffice it to say, without their general on the floor conducting the flow of the game, I think the C’s suffer badly tonight. From a situational stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this. And then when you add on some incredibly strong ATS trends working in Minnesota’s favor, there’s no question in my mind where the value lies; note that the Wolves are 5-4 ATS in their last nine following three or more consecutive SU losses, while Boston is just 2-6 ATS in non-conferenc contests this season. Grab as many points as you can and unload on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the LA Clippers.

After a sluggish start, the Pistons have looked a lot better of late, especially against the spread. And after a torrid run, the Clippers have come back down to earth for bettors recently. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting “normalcy” to return today and look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. LA has won seven straight in this series and I don’t expect anything to change tonight. A big reason behind the lop-sided domination has been the play of dynamic PG Chris Paul who has averaged 20.8 points and 11.6 assists in going 5-0 vs. the Pistons since joining the Clippers. Most recently Paul would score 23 points in the third frame in his team’s 104-98 road win in Detroit back on November 26th. While LA won SU in that one, it did not in fact cover the spread, which I feel only strengthens today’s pick. Paul and the Clippers will also be looking to atone for Friday’s 104-96 setback in Washington in which he finished with six turnovers and also for Saturday’s 111-106 setback to Milwaukee on Saturday in which he had the same amount: “We have to defend," Paul assessed after the back-to-back losses. "We have to play better." Detroit has won two in a row, ending a 13-game slide in Friday’s 105-103 victory at Phoenix, before then beating Sacramento 95-90 the following night. As I like to say, even the sun has to shine on a dog’s bum-hole every now and then; suffice it to say, I’m fully expecting the Pistons to return to mediocrity tonight. Note that LA is among the top-shooting teams in the league at 47.9 percent, while Detroit ranks dead last at just 40.9. And note that Detroit is just 5-10 ATS this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while LA is 4-1 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games. In my opinion, after taking all of the above factors into account, I feel that this line should in fact be a bit larger and do indeed believe the value lies with the CLIPPERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ATS BEATDOWN on the Dallas Mavericks.

Both of these teams are surging, but I think the home side comes to play today and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Warriors haven’t lost in more than a month, but I think will be in for a big surprise today as they face the league’s highest scoring team on its own floor. It’s not too hard to imagine Golden State coming in a bit complacent here, it’s won 14 straight by an average of 13.3 points, most recently pulling away for a 105-93 victory over Houston on Wednesday. Golden State has been getting the job done with tough defensive play, but Dallas is among the NBA’s best in field-goal shooting at 48.2 percent and averages a league-best 110.5 points. Dallas also comes in with considerable momentum, it’s gone 7-2 SU in its last nine and has scored at least 105 in nine straight overall. And to say this is a “revenge” game for the home side would be an understatement I think as Golden State would win the final three meetings between the teams last year. Also note that many of the Mavericks best players are playing much better at home than compared to the road, Montae Ellis is shooting 51.3 percent in Dallas compared to 43.0 percent away from friendly confines (not surprisingly, the Mavs are averaging 115.5 points on their own court to lead the league). Also Dirk Nowitzki has been much better at home where he’s averaging 20.8 points on 56.3 percent shooting. Note that Golden State also comes in with some injuries, David Lee remains out with a hamstring issue, so too does Andrew Bogut with a knee issue. As good as Golden State has been this year for bettors, note that it is in fact 0-1 ATS this season as a road dog of 3.5 points or less, and note that Dallas is 16-12 ATS in its last 28 when playing with two or more days of rest. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the MAVERICKS as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Wizards.

For a number of different reasons, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done, and while I obviously think the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Both teams come into this contest red hot, I simply feel that LA is going to finally have a letdown here after winning nine straight though. The Wizards will be looking to post their best home start in franchise history and move to 11-2 in the nation’s capital. Washington is coming off a couple of close contests, a 133-132 double OT victory over Boston before a 91-89 effort in Orlando on Wednesday. Note that the Wizards would commit a season-low ten turnovers and had 26 assists in that one; there’s no question that Washington is playing at an extremely high level right now: "When we play that way, it makes it hard for the other team," Wizards coach Randy Wittman assessed afterwards. "If we're getting 10 or 12 assists, we're going to get beat every time. We move bodies, we move the ball and we don't worry about who's getting shots. Normally we have guys on the floor who can score." One big reason why the Clippers have been playing so well has been because of point guard Chris Paul, but his play will be negated here by the Wizards’ John Wall. This is area is a wash. And without their “energizer bunny” leading the charge, I think the rest of LA will suffer tonight. And as good as the Clippers are offensively, note that the Wizards rank eighth in the league in allowing just 92.2 per contest. And to say this is a “revenge” game for the home side would be a bit of an understatement I think, including dropping both contests last year, the Wizards have in fact lost 10 of the last 11 in the series. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that LA is 3-6 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest, while Washington is 3-1 following a divisional contest this year, 2-1 ATS in non-conference games and 3-2 ATS vs. clubs with winning records. I think the home side comes to play today and when taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the WIZARDS as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Charlotte Hornets.

Boston is coming off a heart-breaking 133-132 double OT loss to Washington on Monday and I think will come out flat today. Conversely, the Horents finally got off the schneid in breaking a ten game slide by winning a thrilling 103-102 contest vs. the Knicks on Friday. With a few extra days off to refocus on the task at hand, I believe the stage is set for the home side to lay a real whooping on the C’s. Note that Charlotte will be welcoming back offensive spark plug Michael Kidd-Gilchrist after he missed 12 straight games with a foot injury. This is a great situational play, but it becomes even stronger when looking at it from a trend based stand point; note that Boston is 4-6 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more and 4-5 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. And note that Charlotte is 2-1 ATS this season as a home favorite of 3 points or less. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, play on the HORNETS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Portland Trailblazers.

Detroit is coming off its first ATS victory in quite some time but has lost 12 straight SU coming into this one and suffice it to say, I think the high-flying visiting side takes full advantage of this scuffling home side. These two teams are obviously moving in complete polar opposite directions right now as Portland is looking for a 14th win in 15 games. Home court advantage has been anything but for the struggling Pistons as they’ve lost nine in a row in Detroit; their last game was particularly heart-wrenching as they’d lose 96-94 to OKC, thir third conecutive winnable contest that got away from them. It was a narrow loss vs. the Blazers last December 15th, as Portland would escape with a 111-109 win thanks to star Damian Lillard’s shot as time expired. LaMarcus Aldridge would lead the way with 24 points and 11 boards in his team’s 103-99 win at New York on Sunday; keep your eyes on the Portland big man as he comes in having strung together a season-best five consecutive double-doubles. I simply can’t see Detroit slowing down or keeping up with the Blazers who come into this contest averaging a whopping 108.5 points during a six game win skein away from friendly confines. It’s also super important to note that Portland has given up an average of just 91.8 points in starting a perfect 9-0 vs. Eastern Conference foes this year (note, conversely that Detroit is just 1-9 vs. the West this year). Note that Portland is 7-2 ATS this year vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while conversely (once again!), Detroit is a poor 2-6 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. In my opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger, play on PORTLAND.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Phoenix Suns.

Phoenix will look to get back to its winning ways and to also avenge an earlier loss to LA, while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Clippers have won nine of their last ten and I think will finally come in a bit complacent, just the opportunity the Suns (and us!) can take advantage of. The Pelicans were the Clippers latest victim, LA would cruise for a 120-100 victory on Saturday. Phoenix will also be looking to atone for a somewhat listless effort vs. the Rockets on Saturday, a 100-95 setback after shooting a combined 53.0 percent in back-to-back victories. From a trend based stand point, this play becomes even stronger, note that Phoenix is 6-3 ATS this season vs. teams that average 99 plus points per contest and 6-4 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. Conversely, note that LA is just 4-6 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year and only 3-5 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. In my opinion, this situation, the numbers and the trends do indeed all point to PHOENIX as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Indiana Pacers.

Atlanta comes in having won six straight and I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot as Indiana will look to avenge an earlier loss and take advantage of what I think is a great situational spot. The Hawks have looked a lot better of late, but I think there is some room to read between the lines, their win skein has come against teams that currently own losing records. It’s not hard to imagine Atlanta coming in a bit complacent here as well, after Indiana the Hawks host the lowly 76ers on Wednesday before opening a home and home set with the Magic on Friday. Also note that the Hawks are coming off a game just last night, a 96-84 victory over Denver. After a decent start to the year, the Pacers have taken a step back of late, they return home off a winless four-game trip which concluded with a tough 102-101 OT loss at Sacramento. Note that Atlanta is in fact just 3-4 ATS this season as the underdog, while Indiana is 8-0 ATS this year following a non-conference game and 8-4 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. I’m backing the PACERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Mavericks.

For a number of different reasons I like the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Dallas has won the last four straight in this series and will be motivated to return to its winning ways after Friday’s 118-106 loss to Phoenix which snapped a four-game win streak. While the Mavericks did beat the Bucks 107-105 in Milwaukee on Wednesday, they did not cover the spread. One player to keep your eyes on is big man Tyson Chandler who had 18 points and 20 boards in the win over the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off a 109-85 win over Miami on Friday (I successfully played on the UNDER in that one), the victory snapped a three-game slide. Note though that the Bucks are a poor 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog and just 1-3 ATS after allowing 85 points or less. And note that Dallas is 50-42 ATS in its last 92 vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the MAVERICKS as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Pistons.

Philadelphia has been losing, but it’s been covering the spread, including last night’s game vs. the Thunder. The Pistons have been losing (10 straight), both SU and ATS, but I definitely feel that the conditions are finally right for Detroit to get off the schneid and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Note that Philadelphia is 0-9 vs. Eastern Conference foes this year. This is the opportunity that the Pistons have been waiting for as they look to avoid losing 11 straight for the first time since 2010. Detroit had a shot in its last game but came up short in a 109-102 setback in OT at Boston, Andre Drummond had 27 points and 14 boards. And if history is any precedence, then the Pistons have to be loving their chances as Philadelphia has lost 13 of its last 18 in Detroit. From a trend based stand point, this play is as solid as you could possibly ask for, note that the 76ers are just 1-2 ATS this year as road dogs in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while the Pistons are 2-1 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to DETROIT as the savvy move here.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Charlotte Hornets.

A great situational play here in my opinion, New York is coming off a game just last night at home vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, this definitely sets up as letdown spot for the visitors in my opinion. Conversely, the desperate home side has lost ten in a row SU. This is also a revenge spot for the Hornets after falling 96-93 in New York back on November 2nd. From a “situational” stand point, this is as solid as a selection as you could possibly ask for. However, it becomes even stronger when taking into account some poweful ATS trends, note that the Knicks are just 2-8 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year, while the Hornets are 4-2 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. I like CHARLOTTE to pull away down the stretch for its long awaited victory.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Rockets.

Despite being down a few pieces, I think the home side comes to play today. These are the league’s best defensive clubs and each comes in with considerable momentum. Houston will once again be without the services of big man Dwight Howard, but that’s not going to matter today for the revenge minded Rockets in my opinion. Memphis comes in on a five-game win streak, but will have its hands full today after beating Houston 119-93 back on November 17th, a season high for points allowed for the home side. A closer look at the numbers in that game reveal that Memphis shot season highs in that contest; simply put, I don’t see the visitors being able to accomplish that twice against the Rockets. Houston has already played without Howard for six straight games, so it is now fully accustomed to their current lineup, the Rockets are coming off a 117-103 win at Milwaukee in which James Harden scored 34 points, dished out seven assists, grabbed six boards and posted four steals. Note that Houston has hit a league-best 207 3-pointers so far this year as well. Note that this is in fact a spot that Memphis has struggled in for bettors, already 0-1 ATS after playing three consecutive road games, it’s just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 in the same position over the last two. And note that Houston is 6-3 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. Play on the ROCKETS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Boston Celtics.

For a number of different reasons I believe the visitors can at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I believe is a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. I think Atlanta comes in a bit complacent here, it’s been playing much better of late, but I believe this sets up as a classic letdown spott after its big 105-75 home win over Charlotte on Saturday. The Hawks also beat the Pelicans 100-91 on Friday. As I always like to say, desperation breeds motivation and there’s no question that the C’s will be hungry here as they come into this game having dropped seven of their last eight after Sunday’s 111-89 setback to San Antonio. These teams split four games last year, but note that Boston is already 3-2 ATS on the road this season and 2-1 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Atlanta is 1-2 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest and just 2-3 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. A great situational play, this is a few too many points to be giving up here in my opinion, play on BOSTON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Utah Jazz.

While I feel the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I feel we’re getting excellent value here on the home side. The Nuggets have won seven of their last nine, most recently a 122-97 thumping of Phoenix on Friday and suffice it to say, I definitely think the team comes in complacent. It’s hard to get a true read on the Nuggets at this point, while they’ve looked a lot better of late, they started the year so poorly, in my opinion the book is still out on this team. Utah will be plenty motivated, Denver is still giving up an average of 110 PPG and the Jazz have yet to top the 100-point plateau in their last seven games. Utah is most recently coming off a 112-96 loss to the Clippers on Saturday, wasting a huge 30-point effort from team leading scorer Gordon Hayward. To say this is a “revenge game” as well would be an understatement as the home side has lost four of the last five in the series. From a trend based stand point, there’s no question this is a strong play as well, as note that Denver is just 3-5 ATS this year away from friendly confines, while Utah is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the JAZZ as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Lakers.

With Toronto’s leading scorer DeMar DeRozan sidelined, I think the home side can at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. LA is a poor team, but will be motivated here to avoid a fifth straight loss and take advantage of the absence of DeMar DeRozan who is averaging 19.4 point for the Raptors; DeRozan torn the tendon in his left groin in Friday’s 106-102 home loss. Toronto still has plenty of weapons, but I think there will be a small adjustment period for the visitors, the perfect opportunity for the hungry Lakers (and us!), to take advantage of. LA will certainly be motivated here as well after falling 120-119 to Minnesota on Friday. Kobe Bryant continues to lead the charge, he’s averaging a league best 26.4 points. Note that Toronto is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 6 to 9 points range, while LA is 5-4 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more. Consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well, play on the LAKERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Dallas Mavericks.

A couple of the league’s best go head to head and as you can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think this game will come down to the wire. So do I and as such, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this one. Toronto has won six straight and hasn’t won seven in a row since Vince Carter’s reign North of the border. Both teams can put the rock in the hole, I don’t see any point in talking about or analyzing individual player matchups on the offensive end of the court. For me, this is mainly a situationally based play: Dallas comes in with momentum, it had lost two in a row before rallying past New York in Wednesday’s 109-102 win in OT. This is also a big contest for Dallas as it’s the first stop on a four-game road trip. And lastly, Dallas plays with double revenge after losing both in the series last year, Toronto overcoming deficits of at least 19 points in each victory. Note that the Mavs are 4-2 ATS on the road already this year and 2-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. And note that Toronto is just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 after three or more consecutive SU wins. While the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, grab the points; play on DALLAS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a great situationally based selection. Desperation breeds motivation and I think the Hornets will keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded tonight. I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the surging Warriors, they’ve won seven straight. Conversely, Charlotte already has its back against the wall at this point of the season as it’s lost seven straight. This is also a “revenge” game for the home side after it fell 112-87 in Golden State on November 15th. Note that the Hornets weren’t overly horrible in their 105-97 setback to red-hot Portland on Wednesday as Brian Roberts come off the bench to score a career-high 24, while big man Al Jefferson added 21 points and 14 boards. Interestingly, the Warriors have dropped 13 of the last 15 in Charlotte and are just 28-31 ATS the last two seasons after a victory by ten points or more. And note that Charlotte has been money in this spot for bettors, 5-3 ATS in its last eight following a non-conference contest. While I won’t go so far as to call for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the conditions are right for a highly competitive affair and will ultimately recommend in grabbing as many points as you can; play on the HORNETS.

AAA Sports 

This is an 8* UNDERDOG SUPER PLAY on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I think the Spurs come in a bit complacent here and the underachieving home side at least keeps it close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the healthy amount of points it’s been afforded here. Missing a few key pieces, the Wolves would get a season-high 37 points from Kevin Martin and pull away for a 115-99 win over New York on Wednesday to snap a five-game slide. San Antonio has won five of six, including a 92-90 win at Cleveland on Wednesday, playing over its head with Marco Belinelli, Matt Bonner, Tiago Splitter and Patty Mills all sitting because of injury. San Antonio is notorious in playing down to the level of its competition and I think comes out a bit flat here; note that the Spurs are just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year, while the Wolves are already 3-0 ATS at home this season and 2-0 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest. While I won’t call for an outright upset win, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up, play on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Raptors.

Both of these teams are playing well but I think the home side will take care of business and pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover once the final horn sounds. Milwaukee hasn’t won three straight on the road in over two years and I don’t think will be able to knock off the top dog in the East today. Toronto is coming off a convincing 96-92 home win over Memphis on Wednesday, another big fourth quarter was the difference as the team is averaging an NBA-best plus-5.4 margin in the final frame. Also note that the Raptors are allowing just 21.2 PPG in the final 12 minutes and have outscored all but two teams, sporting a plus-53 advantage in their last five. Let’s give the Bucks credit, they look a lot better this year, but I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot after Wednesday’s 122-118 triple OT win at Brooklyn. This is a big game for Toronto as it looks to close out a seven-game home stand on a strong point; note that the Raptors are allowing just 93.4 PPG while going 7-1 at the Air Canada Centre. And note that Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last six after three consecutive victories, while Toronto is already 5-3 ATS this year in front of the home town crowd. Look for the RAPTORS to do just enough to cover this spread.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Charlotte Hornets.

The Magic are coming off a beatdown loss at home at the hands of the Clippers and I think are ripe for the picking here as well. As I like to say, desperation breeds motivation and I think the Hornets leave it all on the court today as they look to avoid a season-high fourth straight loss. Charlotte will be extra motivated here as well after the way it lost last time out, giving up the decisive basket with just 0.7 seconds left in the 88-86 setback to Indiana on Wednesday. Note that Orlando has really struggled in this spot for quite some time, a deplorable 29-50 ATS the last two seasons when playing against a team with a losing record and just 14-18 ATS in its last 32 divisional contests. And note that this is a spot that the Hornets have excelled in, already 2-0 ATS vs. division opponents this year, they’re also 3-2 ATS in their last five as a home fav in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, this line should be a lot higher, play on CHARLOTTE.

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This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the LA Clippers.

This is a big game for the Clippers who play the first of seven on the road and suffice it to say, I like this underachieving visiting side to take control of this contest from the outset and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. LA will be extra motivated here as it looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this year, most recently coming off a listless 105-89 setback to Chicago on Monday. It was a pathetic effort, it was the second time in three games that the Clippers were held to under 90 points, already matching their total from last year. Orlando has actually played the Clippers tough recently, they’d split both meetings in each of the last two seasons. Orlando has played better than expected at 5-7, living and dying with the 3-ball, knocking down a season-high 13 in 26 attempts in Monday’s 107-93 win at Detroit. However, take note that Orlando has struggled in this spot for bettors for a LONG time, it’s a deplorable 36-48 ATS the last two seasons in front of the home town crowd and oddly enough, just 29-44 ATS in the same time frame vs. poor defensive teams which give up 99-plus points per game. Conversely, this is a position that the Clippers have been money in, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and 24-15 ATS in their last 39 off an upset loss as a favorite. As I said off the top, this is a very important game for LA, while I also think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Magic; play on the CLIPPERS.

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This is an 8* NON-CONFERENCE SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks.

The Knicks have won six straight in this series and are looking to avoid falling to 1-5 at the Garden this year: "Losing is tough," said Carmello Anthony after the Knicks’ 97-95 home loss to Orlando on Wednesday. "I thought this was a game we could have went out there and gotten tonight, kind of get that monkey off our back. So this is a tough one to swallow." A date vs. the Jazz is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, New York has won six straight over Utah by an average of 17.5 points, Anthony has led the charge in averaging 31.5 points on 55.3 percent shooting in two victories last year. This is a tough spot then for the visitors who are making their fourth stop on a five-game trip, Wednesday’s 100-97 loss in Atlanta capped an embarrassing nine-point fourth quarter effort. Note that Utah is just 26-34 ATS the last two seasons after a non-conference game, while New York is 18-15 ATS in its last 33 off an upset loss as a favorite. I think the conditions are finally right for the struggling KNICKS to put it all together and look them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

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This is an 8* NON-CONFERENCE SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Denver Nuggets.

As primarily a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of “situations” that I look for as I think that the home side is going to have a “letdown” here after it’s big win on the road over the Miami Heat. Conversely, the Nuggest come in desperate for a victory and as I’ve always said: “Desperation breeds motivation!” While the outright win is obviously not out of the question in my opinion, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. I think the Pacers come in a bit complacent here, they’re coming off back-to-back wins, while the Nuggets haven’t tasted victory since an 89-79 season opening win over the Pistons. Denver actually ranks near the top of the league with 101.5 possessions per 48 minutes, but is 29th in the league in points allowed: "It's not offensively, it's defense, and defense is about effort," head coach Brian Shaw said last night. "As a coach, I have to find a way to get that kind of defensive effort consistently out of whoever it is that I put out there." From a trend based stand-point, this is definitely a solid selection as well, note the Denver is 47-40 ATS the last two seasons following after scoring 105 points or more, while Indiana is a poor 9-15 ATS in its last 24 off an upset win as an underdog. Look for the NUGGETS to come away with at least the ATS cover.

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This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Pistons.

Detroit has already foiled me twice this year, two late collapses which saw it unable to cover the spread. The Pistons have yet to cover the spread once yet this year but I think can finally keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with that I feel is a healthy amount of points that they’ve been afforded in this one. The Wizards are off to a great start, but note that they haven’t won six of their first eight games since 1975. Note that these teams split the four-game series last year. Washington has been getting the job done defensively, meaning that Detroit needs to up its game here; the Pistons averaged 101 PPG last year, but rank 29th in the NBA with 91.9 this season. In fact, Detroit and New York are the only two teams left to yet score 100 points in a game this year; suffice it to say, I think that trend ends today, as the Pistons last went eight games without scoring 100 points in 2011. From a trend based standpoint, this is definitely a sound wager, note that Detroit is 15-10 ATS in its last 25 as a road dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while Washington is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 when playing with three or more days of rest. Grab as many points as you can with the PISTONS.

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