8* MAGIC (SPECIAL)

I am travelling this weekend, so my writeups today will be more "succinct" than they normally are. The Kings are off a rare road win, coming from behind to knock off Indianapolis by a score of 110-109. Now they face a revenge-minded Magic team that fell 142-130 at the Kings on December 8th. Note that Orlando is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. The Magic posted two straight home wins before a 118-102 loss at Oklahoma City. Expect a return to form here in this revenge scenairo. Lay the points, the plays ORLANDO.

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10* HAWKS (ASSASSIN)

The Hawks have gone just 1-2 in their last 3. Off a 122-101 loss at Detroit as 5-point favs, I say that ATL bounces back here at home in this revenge scenario. ATL lost 127-113 at Golden State at the start of the yar, but note that the Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. The Warriors snapped a 3-game slide with a 118-104 road win at Miami in their last game as 9.5-point underdogs, but with a much more "winnable" game in the Nation's capital on Sunday, this sets up as a classic "trap" for the visitors. A great overall situational play in my opinion; lay the points!

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10* RAPTORS (ASSASSIN)

There's zero reason to overthink this one, as Toronto is 0-3 SU/ATS so far in this season series. The triple-revenge factor is the main reason behind this play. Cleveland hasn't played since it's 131-120 home loss to the Lakers and with a home game against Chicago next, this also sets up as a bit of a look-ahead spot for the visiting side. The Raptors are off a 113-99 loss at Chicago, but note that they're 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in. I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish; lay the points, the play is Toronto!

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10* PISTONS (ASSASSIN)

I base my picks on many different things. Scheduling at this time of the year is a big factor I always look at, as team's playing the 2nd game of a B2B are definitely fatigued. Let's not overthink this one, as after its 117-111 win as a 3.5-point fav just last night, I believe New York suffers a predictable letdown here. Detroit is coming off a 119-115 loss at home to Portland, but previous to that had covered in 8 of its last 9. The Pistons got the better of Atlanta by a score of 113-110 in OT as 8-point dogs 2 weeks ago, and I say another outright victory is a possibility here as well; grab the points, the play is Detroit!

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10* MAGIC (ASSASSIN)

Golden State comes into this game fatigued. It's off B2B home losses, falling 110-88 to to Boston, before then dropping a 110-108 loss at home to the Spurs. With a game at Miami tomorrow, followed by contests at Washington and Memphis, can anyone say "letdown/look-ahead" spot here?! Not suprisingly, the Magic play with revenge after a 126-95 loss at Golden State as 15.5-point underdogs in early December. Off a 90-85 home win over OKC, I say the Magic "catch" the Warriors at a great time here. Orlando is a rebuild season, but it's healthier now than it's been at any other point and I believe it will take this game seriously. Outright win?! Anything is possible, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Magic!

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10* BULLS (ASSASSIN)

Chicago has lost 3 straight, both SU and ATS (that does in fact work in our favor here though, as the Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after 3 or more straight losess in a row.) Chicago also plays with revenge after a 127-120 OT setback to Toronto at the start of February. Finally though, note that Toronto played and won 93-88 at Philadelphia as 7.5-point underdogs just last night! It's a perfect spot for a hungry and revenge-minded team; lay the points, the play is Chicago!

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10* BUCKS (ASSASSIN)

The Bucks are the defending champs and the Wolves are the hottest team in the league right now. Minnesota is actually the No. 1 offense in the entire NBA. The Bucks are No. 3. Each is playing extremely well on both ends of the floor and honestly, it wouldn't be difficult at all to write a convincing argument for either of these league-leading squads to come out on top in this one. So why do I like the Bucks here? Simple. Revenge factor. The Wolves are poised for a letdown here vs. a the revenge-minded Bucks who fell 113-108 at home to Minnesota at the start of the season (as note, Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS home loss against an opponent.) To be the champ, you gotta beat the champ, and that's not happening twice; the play is Milwaukee!

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10* MAGIC (ASSASSIN)

The Nets routinely "play down" to the level of their competition and I expect that detrimental trend to continue here on the road against the lowly Magic. Brooklyn has Kevin Durant back in the line-up, and wouldn't you know it, the Nets are winning games again, entering on a 3-game skein. Most recently it was a 110-107 home victory over the Knicks. But with a much more difficult (and more "high profile") game at home against the Mavericks the following night, Durant could be rested here, with Kyrie Irving carrying the load. Either way, this one definitely sets up as a letdown/look-ahead spot for the visitors. The Magic have been playing better of late, going 4-1 ATS in their last five. Their off a 116-114 OT home loss to the 76ers, and I say they carry that confidence and momentum over here; grab the points!

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8* KINGS (DESTRUCTION)

The Bulls are off a 101-91 win at home over Cleveland, but I think they'll have their hands full here vs. this hungry home side. The Bulls have much bigger fish to fry as well, with games at Utah and Phoenix upcoming. I say Chicago gets caught looking ahead here. The Kings play with revenge after a 125-118 loss at Chicago in mid February and they're 7-2 ATS in their last 9 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. The Kings are off a 134-125 loss to Utah, but note that they're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a SU/ATS road loss in which they conceded 130 or more points in. While I do feel that an outright upset is possible, let's grab the points!

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10* WIZARDS (ASSASSIN)

I'm not calling for an outright win or anything, but I do think that Washington will keep this one competitive until the final moments, and I do expect Golden State to take the foot off the gas in the second half as it prepares for a red hot Celtics team coming to town on Wednesday. The Warriors are off 3 straight wins/covers, but after their big 122-109 upset home win over the defending champs, we can expect a predictable mental letdown here. Washington fell 127-118 at Portland in its last matchup, but everything points to this one coming down to the wire. As I stated off the top, I'm not calling for the outright victory, but this spread is way too large considering these other factors; grab the points, the play is WASHINGTON.

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10* SUNS (ASSASSIN)

I like the Suns to try and make an example of LeBron James and the Lakers today. It's impossible to know what kind of effort you're going to get out of James and the Lakers from game-to-game. After his 50 point performance in a win over the Wizards in his last outing, I say "The King" has a predictable letdown here against this "step up" in competition. The Suns will be plenty motivated here as well after falling 117-112 at home to the Raptors as 4.5-point underdogs. And with a game at home tomorrow night against Toronto, the Lakers are also going to get caught "looking ahead" tonight; lay the points, the play is Phoenix!

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10* HAWKS (ASSASSIN)

There's no question that Detroit has been playing better of late, but I expect the proverbial wheels to fall off the bus today. Detroit has won 5 of its last 7 and covered in 7 straight. Note though that it's still just 2-13 ATS in its last 15 after 5 or more straight covers in a row. Atlanta has been playing a lot better in the second half as well and has a legitimate shot at the playoffs again. It's off B2B wins, including a 117-114 road win at Washington. With a tough game at Milwaukee on deck next, I expect the visiting side to take this road contest very seriously. Lay the points, the play is Atlanta!

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10* CAVALIERS (EXPRESS)

The Cavaliers have struggled since the All Star break, while the 76ers now look unbeatable with James Harden in the line-up. However, that's only helped in driving this home line a couple points higher than it really should be in my estimation. The Cavs are 36-26 overall, including 17-15 on the road. They're off a 119-98 loss at home to Charlotte, which is important to note here as they're 12-6 ATS in their last 18 off a SU/ATS home loss in which they were held to 99 or less points in. The Cavs also play with revenge here after a 103-93 home loss to Philly in the middle of February. The 76ers have won 4 straight, but with a much more "high-profile" contest at Miami tomorrow night, the possibility of getting caught "looking ahead" is something that we have to take into consideration here as well. I think this one will be decided in the closing moments, so I'm grabbing the points with the Cavaliers!

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10* ROCKETS (ASSASSIN)

The Clippers are 31-31 and somehow managing to stay afloat despite not having Kawhi Leonard or Paul George in the line-up. The Rockets sneak in under the radar here though at 15-44. Houston is off a 119-111 loss to Orlando. The Clippers are off a 105-102 win over the Lakers and I believe will suffer a predictable letdown here. This is the opener of a two-game set between the teams here, with the second coming on March 1st. Expect the home side, which plays with revenge after falling 142-111 to LA in mid February, to keep this one tight down the stretch; grab the points!

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10* KINGS (ASSASSIN)

After beating the Kings by a score of 128-110 in Sacramento two nights ago, I think the Nuggets will get caught complacent here. They're in Portland tomorrow night, so the temptation to take the foot off the proverbial gas pedal will definitely be there for the home side. Sacramento has now lost 3 straight, both SU and ATS, which is significant to note here as it's 7-2 ATS in its last 9 after 3 or more SU/ATS losses in a row. It's also 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. No outright here, but closer than expected; grab the points!

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9* WOLVES (DESTRUCTION)

I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry home side today. Karl Anthony Towns is an underrated player. He's one of only two players in history to win both the three-point contest and the skills contest. The Wolves play with revenge here after a 116-108 loss to the Grizz in mid January. Memphis won 6 straight before the All Star break, but it lost its final game in a 123-119 home setback to the lowly Blazers. With a much more high-profile game at Chicago on Saturday, will the visiting side get caught "looking ahead" here?! It very well could. Look for the well-rested and revenge-mided Wolves to find a way to deliver on Thursday night!

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10* PELICANS (EXPRESS)

I think this is a great spot for the Pels. They're coming off a 121-109 loss here at home to the Grizz, but they managed a 107-91 victory over the Mavericks on December 3rd. Dallas is off an upset 107-99 victory at Miami as a 5.5-point underdog, but with the All Star break starting tomorrow, I believe the visitors are going to go through the motions today as Luca Doncic gets ready for the upcoming All Star game. These teams average almost the identical amount of points, with New Orleans averaging 106.1 and Dallas averaging 106.3. The difference comes on the defensive end, but the overall situation working in favor of the Pels here supercedes that factor. Clearly, the outright win is in the cards here, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is New Orleans!

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10* LAKERS (ASSASSIN)

Are the Lakers a good team that's been the victim of unfortunate circumstances this year? I think the answer is both yes and no. Certainly LA's record would indicate that it's a bad team (26-31.) The good news? There's still time to correct things and to earn a spot in the playoffs. The Lakers are also 17-13 at home this season. The Jazz have had to overcome a few injury issues, and covid problems, but the enter the all star break with a great 36-21 record. They haven't been at their best on the road though, where they are 15-11 this season. The Lakers are off a tight 117-115 loss at Golden State, easily covering with the 6-point spread. The Lakers can't afford to take tonight off though, and I expect anotherfull four-quarter effort tonight. The Jazz are off a 135-101 win over Houston, which is noteworthy here as they're just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after a SU/ATS win of 30 or more points. I say this one means A LOT more to the desperate Lakers!

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8* ROCKETS (DESTRUCTION)

Clearly, the Rockets are terrible. They're just 15-41 overall. They've been better for bettors though, going 22-33-1 ATS. They're coming off 5 straight SU/ATS losses in a row (and note that they're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after 5 or more consecutive ATS/SU setbacks.) Not suprisingly, they play with revenge here after a listless 115-89 loss to the Suns as 8.5-point dogs on November 14th. Clearly, the Suns are a great team. They're 47-10 SU, and 32-25 ATS. They've won 6 straight, but they lost ATS last time out against the Clippers, winning 103-96, and not coming close to covering the large 12-point spread. I expect a similar final score here as well, as Phoenix prepares for the All Star break. No outright win for Houston, but much closer than expected; the official call will be to grab the points!

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8* WOLVES (DESTRUCTION)

I think this is a great spot to continue to ride the red hot Wolves. Minnesota has won 6 of its last 8. That includes a 129-120 victory over the Pacers in Indiana. The Wolves play with revenge here after falling 133-115 at Charlotte back on November 26th. Minnesota has a tough Toronto team coming to town tomorrow night before the All Star break, so expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Charlotte has NOT been playing well at all of late. It's still scoring lots, but it's also one of the worst defensive clubs in the league, as it enters having lost 7 of its last 8. That includes a 125-118 loss at home to Memphis in its most recent. With a home game against Miami to close out the first half, I say the visitors get caught looking ahead as well. The conditions are certainly correct for a home side rout; the official call will be to lay the points!

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10* MAVERICKS (REVENGE GOM)

Dallas had won four straight before a 99-97 loss at home to the Clippers. The game previous to that they beat LA 112-105. The Mavericks have looked a lot better of late despite trading Kristaps Porzingis and they do indeed play with revenge here after a 125-110 loss at home to the Heat in early November. Miami has sure been playing well, as it's won 5 in a row, but note that it's just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 after five or more SU victories in a row. And with a game at Charlotte, followed by a trip to the Big Apple after the All Star Break, I think the Heat get classically caught "looking past" their non-conference opponent today. In a game that I see being decided in the final moments, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can!

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10* ROCKETS (ASSASSIN)

Are the Rockets a good team that's just been an unfortunate victime to crazy circumstances? Are the Jazz over-rated and not as good as their record would indicate? No, on both counts. The Rockets have struggled for varying reasons, but they're not a great team this year. Utah has had to struggle through some covid issues as well this season, but the Jazz are now primed for a deep playoff run. I simply feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up here, as I expect Utah to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Houston comes in off four straight SU/ATS losses in a row. Most recently a 139-120 loss at home to the Raptors (they're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 though after a SU/ATS home loss in which they allowed 135 or more points in.) Utah comes in off 5 straight wins and covers (and it's just 3-6 ATS in its last 9 after 5 or more SU/ATS victories in a row.) With a much "bigger" game at the Lakers on Wednesday, the Jazz are in danger of looking ahead here as well. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points!

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10* LAKERS (ASSASSIN)

Are LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook really as bad as their win/loss record would indicate? I'd say no. Clearly, chemistry is an issue. Both Davis and James have missed significant time this year. All three will be playing today though and I believe the Lakers have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. The Warriors are off a 116-114 home loss to the Knicks as 9-point favorites. The Lakers are off an embarrassing 107-105 loss to the Blazers, and I expect them to risk life and limb today to try and get back into the winners circle. This one is coming down to the wire, so grab as many points as you can!

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10* PISTONS (ASSASSIN)

Outright victory? I'm not calling for that. But I do think that the visiting side will get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today to its much more high-profile contest at LaMelo Ball and the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday. The Grizz are off a relatively simple 135-109 win at home over the Clippers, which is significant to note as they're just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 off a SU/ATS home win of 20 or more points. Memphis may very well elect to rest some of its starters here. Detroit is just 12-42. It's off a poor 116-86 road loss at Dallas, but note that it's 7-1 ATS in its last 8 after a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 89 or less points in. Clearly the Grizz have the uppherhand in every category, but I expect them to take the foot off the gas down the stretch. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points!

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10* KNICKS (GOW)

Outright victory? Anything is possible. But I do expect the Knicks to play with some heart here today and to keep it competitive throughout. The Knicks are off a disappointing 122-115 OT road loss at the Lakers. With a tough game at Denver tomorrow night, followed by a contest at Golden State, tonight's outing takes on added importance for the visiting side. Utah has broken its 5 game slide with B2B victories. Donovan Mitchell is back in the line-up, but with Golden State coming to town on Wednesday, starters could be rested here. It's a perfect situational set of circumstances that are working in favor of this hungry Knicks side today; grab the points!

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10* LAKERS (ASSASSIN)

Yes, both teams are struggling big time this year. For different reasons though. The Knicks are a mess, but the Lakers are getting healthier (despite LBJ still sidelined a couple mre games.) LA is off a tight 111-110 loss at home to the Clippers, but Anthony Davis has been superb since his return from injury. The Knicks are off a 120-108 home loss to the Grizzlies and they have a tough road game here, with upcoming contests at Utah, Denver, Golden State and Portland. Look for the hungrier home side to comfortably pull away for the win and cover; lay the poitns!

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10* KNICKS (ASSASSIN)

The Knicks are struggling for varying reasons, but I think they can fly under the radar here and at the very least, make this one interesting for the home town crowd until the final moments. New York has lost 5 of its last 6 and it's now just 23-26 this year. The Knicks are dealing with many injuries and COVID problems (as are most teams.) On the other end of the court, the Bucks had their 3-game win streak snapped in a 115-99 defeat to Cleveland: “They played lights out tonight,” Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer assessed after. "I don’t know what the right analogy is, but they played really well. They beat us pretty good. Live ball turnovers is when transition defense is the toughest, and we made a lot of them.” The Bucks have a tougher game against Denver on Sunday, and they get caught looking ahead to that one; no outright, but closer than expected!

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10* WOLVES (ASSASSIN)

Outright win? That would be sweet if you're a Wolves fan. I mean, it's a very real possibility, as this spread isn't too large or anything. However, I think the safest call is to grab as many points as you can here for a couple different reasons. Both teams come in off wins. The Wolves pulled away for a 109-107 road win over Portland last time out, while Golden State handled the Mavericks 130-92 on Tuesday. Note though that GS is just 2-7 ATS in its last 9 after a SU/ATS home win in which it held its opponent to 95 points or less in. They're also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven vs. the West, while the Wolves are 6-2 ATS in the same position. With a much more high-profile game against Brooklyn at home here on Saturday night, I say the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points!

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10* ROCKETS (ASSASSIN)

The lowly Rockets have been playing better of late. The mighty Warriors have been struggling somewhat. Houston plays with revenge here after a 12 point loss earlier in the season, and it comes in off a momentum-building 116-111 win at Utah. The Rockets have in fact now won 3 of their last 4. Golden State on the other hand has lost 3 of its last 5. That includes a 121-117 OT home loss here just last night to the lowly Pacers. And with Utah, Dallas, Minnesota and Brooklyn all coming to town next, can anyone say "look-ahead spot?!" Finally, note that the Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS home loss to an opponent. No outright, but the stage is set for a tight battle; grab the points!

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10* PELICANS (ASSASSIN)

I like the Pels here to sneak in under the radar. They're coming off a 104-92 loss to Boston. New York is off a 112-110 home loss to the Timberwolves. New Orleans had an 18 point halftime lead in its last game, but it stumbled down the stretch. The Knicks are just unable to close out anyone though, as evidenced by the last-second loss to Minnesota last time out. This New York offense has been consistently inconsistent all season and I think it'll have difficulties containing this hungry visiting side. This one comes down to the wire; so grab the points!

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8* RAPTORS (ASSASSIN)

I think this is a great spot bet on the hungry and undervalued Raptors here. Two nights after beating the Bucks by a score of 103-96, the Raptors fell 104-99 at Miami as 4-point dogs on Sunday. Dallas has turned things around after a shaky start to the season, but it needed to come from behind in its last game here to beat OKC by a score of 104-102 as 11.5-point favs. And with rival Phoenix coming to town tomorrow, starters could see more rest time than normal this evening against their feisty non-conference opponent. Dallas is playing in the shadow of Phoenix these days, so that's a game that it's had circled on the calendar. Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 99 or less points in. Expect that trend to continue here; grab the points!

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10* KNICKS (NON-CONF GOM).

The 21-22 Minnesota Timberwolves are off a huge 119-99 win over league-leading Golden State. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here?!  The Knicks have won six of their last ten games, but their three-game win streak was snapped in last night's 97-87 loss to a red-hot Chalotte team. With a game at Atlanta tomorrow night, the visitors are gonig to get classically caught "looking ahead" here. The 22-22 Knicks can't afford that same luxury though after last night's loss. Minnesota is still just 9-12 on the road, while New York is still 11-10 at home. Look for the hungry home side to deliver in friendly confines!

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Spurs (10* GAME OF WEEK).

The Suns are 33-9 overall. They've won 3 straight. THey're off a 138-108 road win at Detroit. I think Phoenix gets caught looking past the Spurs though. San Antonio is without question the hungrier of these two teams. It's coming off a momentum-building 101-94 win over the Clippers. This is a double-revenge game as well already for the Spurs after dropping both earlier contests to Phoenix this season. With 2 nights off before a big game at Dallas to end this trip, the Suns also get caught looking-ahead in this one. Outright victory? I think entirely possible (so sprinkle a little on the ML as well!) That said, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with San Antonio!

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10* PACERS (A$$A$$IN)

Clearly, the Suns are the much better team in this matchup. However, I think that the situation and this spread favor the home side. The Suns are off a 99-95 road win at Toronto on Tuesday, but they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU road victory in which they held their opponent to 95 points or less in. Indiana had its three game ATS win streak snapped last time out in a 119-100 home loss, but note that it's 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 100 or less points in. With a "cream puff" at Detroit up next, the Suns are vulnerable here to a bit of a mental letdown as well. I say the Suns play down to the level of their competition here. Outright win? Probably not. But this one will definitely be decided in the final moments, so the official call will be to grab the points!

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10* Wolves (A$$A$$IN)

I like the Wolves to sneak in under the proverbial radar here and to, at the very least, give the red hot Grizz a run for their money today! Minnesota comes in off a 128-125 road loss at New Orleans on Tuesday. The Grizz are on a ten-game win streak and just knocked off league-leading Golden State by a score of 116-108 on Tuesday. Can anyone say classic "letdown" spot?! Both teams almost concede the identical number of points (Wolves allow 109.2, Grizzlies allow 107.9). Ja Morant and company are in unchartered territory right now and regression is imminent in my opinion. With Dallas coming to town tomorrow night, I also forsee the home side getting caught "looking past" its opponent. Outright win?! Maybe (consider sprinkling a little on the ML!) In the end though, my official call is to grab as many points as you can!

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10* SUNS (ASSASSIN)

The Suns are 30-9 and the Raptors are 20-17. Phoenix probably got caught looking ahead to its Eastern road swing in its 123-100 loss at home to Miami on Saturday. Toronto looks poised for a letdown here though in my opinion after its slim 105-101 home win over the lowly Pelicans. Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder and JaVale McGee are all back for the Suns now though after a stint on the COVID list. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet have been fantastic for Toronto, but the home side does lack depth compared to Phoenix. Toronto has won six straight, and that fact has actually driven down this line in favor of Toronto. I say the Suns come prepared to play in the first game of their road trip. So lay the points!

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10* PACERS (ASSASSIN)

This play is contrarian. The Pacers are 15-25, including only 3-15 on the road. The C's are 19-21, including 12-8 at home. Boston has been trading wins/losses over its last four games. Two nights after collapsing and losing 108-105 in New York, the C's won 99-75 at home over the Knicks. This is the opener of a home and home set and I expect Indiana to take it very seriously. Note that Boston is also just 2-7 ATS in its last nine off a SU/ATS home win in which it held its opponent to 80 or fewer points in. Expect Indiana to build off its impressive 125-113 home win over Utah and to take this one right down to the wire!

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10* BULLS.

The 19-19 Washington Wizards are off a terrible 114-111 home loss to Houston and I believe that they're ripe for the picking in this one. Chicago has won eight in a row, but it's failed to cover in three straight. That includes a much tighter than expected 102-98 win here over Olrando. But that three nights ago. With so much time off to rest and prepare for this one, we can absolutely expect the home side to push the pace of this one from start to finish. The Wizards have struggled offensively this year, but they've also struggled defensively. This isn't a good combination to win games most nights. When these teams played in Washington on January 1st, Chicago scored the 120-119 victory and it was unable to cover the 2-point spread. I say the Bulls come in focused and run up the score from start to finish this time around though!

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10* Hornets (BLOOD-BATH)

Off B2B victories, I believe that Detroit will stumble here. Most recently it was a monumental 115-106 win over the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. The Hornets on the other hand will be anxious to return to the winners circle after a listless 124-121 loss in the nation's capital in their last outing. The problem for the Pistons here is that they average only 101.1 PPG, while allowing 110.1. Saddiq Bey was huge for Detroit in its last win with 34 points and eight boards, but I just don't see lightning striking twice here. Charlotte has in fact lost two in a row, so it'll be hungry here. The Hornets average 114.9 PPG, while allowing 116.7. But they catch a break here facing this "on again, off again" Detroit offense. I expect a blowout of epic proportions, so lay those points with confidence!

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10* Spurs (PLATINUM CLUB)

I think the Spurs catch the Raptors at a good time here. San Antonio is off a 117-116 loss at Detroit. The Spurs though remain one of the league's highest scoring teams, averaging 111.5 PPG. With a tough upcoming schedule, including a game at Boston tomorrow night, I believe Greg Popovich has his troops prepared to play today. The Raptors are off a relatively simple 120-105 home win over New York and they've won two in a row, but Nick Nurse will likely rest many throughout this game with a contest at Milwaukee tomorrow night. The Raptors only average 106.9 PPG as well. Outright?! Anything is possible, but I do definitely expect this to be very competitive and that's the reason why I'm grabbing the points!

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10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH on Nets.

The bottom line here gentlemen is that these are two very good teams. Memphis has been playing well of late, but I think it's overmatched here facing this Nets team that's coming off a poor loss to the Clippers in their last outing, allowing a whopping 40 points in the fourth quarter, an effort which promted Steve Nash to asses: "We deserved to lose that game." Both James Harden and Kevin Durant had huge nights, but Brooklyn stumbled down the stretch. Memphis is off B2B home wins, but it's still just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a SU/ATS home victory in which it held its opponent to 105 or less points in. I think Harden and Durant lay the hammer down here after that pathetic effort last time out. Lay the points, this one gets UGLY!

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This is a 10* play on the Jazz.

The Warriors are 27-7, but they're off a listless 89-86 defeat to Denver. With a night off before a home game againt the Heat, Golden State will have to very careful to not get caught looking ahead today. This is the first matchup of the year between the clubs, but the Jazz enter having won six in a row. Utah is the highest scoring team in the league, averaging 116 PPG, and its guard rotation matches up well against Stephen Curry and company. The Warriors are ranked seventh in scoring, but note that they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to 90 points or less in. Look for Utah to come out and push the pace from start to finish. The play is the JAZZ.

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This is an 8* on PHX

Even at full strength, Oklahoma City would stand little chance of winning this game. But the Thunder aren’t even close to being full strength entering Wednesday. Six players were in protocol for last night’s 117-111 loss in Sacramento. That includes star rookie Josh Giddey, the team leader in both rebounds and assists. Coach Mark Daigneault was also absent last night. All these absences, coupled with the fact they played last night, means OKC is very likely to be blown out tonight in Phoenix. The Suns are hoping to avert what would be their first three-game losing streak of the season. After losing Christmas Day to Golden State, they fell at the buzzer to Memphis on Monday. The Suns’ last win came against the Thunder, 113-101, back on 12/23. We think the final margin will be a lot larger tonight as the favorite is hungry and more motivated this time. They’d just beaten the Lakers the previous time they faced the Thunder. Phoenix is pretty clearly one of the three best teams in the NBA this season. We’d consider Oklahoma City among the three worst. This promises to get ugly in a hurry. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO

Laying points with Sacramento might sound a bit dicey, but we are expecting an inspired effort tonight from the Kings after interim head coach Alvin Gentry called Sunday “the most disappointed I’ve been in 34 years in the NBA.” The Kings were outscored 78-52 in the second half by Memphis as they lost a third straight game by 15 or more points. But tonight they are welcoming in Oklahoma City. Despite four wins in its last five games and being 6-0 ATS in their last six, the Thunder remain one of the worst teams in the NBA. They are last in the NBA in scoring and get outscored by 11.8 points/game on the road. So expect the rare, comfortable win for Sacramento on Tuesday. The Kings are also looking to avenge a two-point road loss from last month. That game in OKC saw them blow a 14-point halftime lead. Play on SACRAMENTO

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland has just three wins in its last 14 games. But at least they’re at home where they started the year out on a 10-1 tear. With Thursday’s game vs. Brooklyn postponed, the Blazers have had five days off to prepare for Dallas tonight. The Mavericks turned in a game effort Christmas night vs. Utah, only losing by four as 13.5 point underdogs. But they continue to be very undermanned with Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr and three others in protocol. Portland is also without five players, but at least they’ve got Damian Lillard, who has averaged 38 points on 54.8% shooting (48.4% on threes) over his past three games. Like Portland, Dallas has been slipping of late, dropping four of its last five games. So we’ve got two struggling teams that will be short-handed Monday night. We side with the home team due to Lillard and the fact they are better rested. The Mavs’ only road win in the last 17 days came at Oklahoma City. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Add Paul George’s name to the list of Clippers who won’t be in action Sunday. Los Angeles was already without Marcus Morris Sr, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luke Kennard and Jason Preston and of course Kawhi Leonard, who hasn’t played at all this season. Looking at that list of players, only Kennard has a shot to play tonight. The Clippers did somehow pick up a win on Wednesday, but tonight’s effort should more closely resemble the team that had lost three in a row before that. Meanwhile, Denver should be really motivated after losing to Charlotte on Thursday, a game in which it had a 17-point lead going into the fourth quarter. That was the Nuggets second straight loss and third in the last four games. Nikola Jokic is still playing well though, averaging 26.2 points and 13.1 rebounds his L10 games. He went for 29-21 on Thursday. The Nuggets are a lot closer to “full strength” than the Clippers are right now and that makes them very attractive here in a game they’ll desperately want to win. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

This is our best matchup on Christmas Day. The two best teams in the West face off as the 26-5 Suns host the 26-6 Warriors. The last time they met, we took the Warriors laying 6.5 at home. They covered for us in a 118-96 win and in the process ended Phoenix’s 18-game win streak. That is one of only two losses the Suns have suffered in the last 27 games. Despite them potentially not being at full strength for Saturday, we again will side with Golden State, this time as our 10* Game of the Month. As long as Steph Curry and Draymond Green are both healthy, and they are, the Warriors should not be getting this many points from anybody. They have a better statistical profile than the Suns and the players that are potentially going to be absent (Poole, Lee, Wiggins) collectively aren’t worth more than 1-2 points to the spread.  Grab the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE

AAA

This is an 8* on PHOENIX

Oklahoma City has won three in a row. That’s not a sentence we anticipated writing. The Thunder defeated the Nuggets on Wednesday night, 108-94, a game where we were on the wrong side. We’ll again be on the opposite side of the Thunder here tonight, only this time, look for us to be right. Phoenix is clearly the “real deal” having won 24 of its last 26 games including a four-game win streak heading into tonight. The Suns have covered the spread in all four wins as well, winning by an average of more than 18 points per game. Each of the last three wins have been by 18 or more. The Thunder are still one of the league’s bottom teams and have been outscored by more than 20 points/game when playing with zero rest. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Oklahoma City just picked up a win, which is not something that happens all that often. We had them plus the points on Monday as they beat Memphis 102-99 in a huge revenge spot. Remember that the Grizzlies had previously handed OKC the largest loss in NBA history (73 points) back on December 2nd. Even more rare is the fact the Thunder have now won two straight games. They also beat the Clippers 104-103 on Saturday. Since winning four in a row in early November, the Thunder have not strung together more than two straight wins at any point. So tonight is a good time to fade them. Denver, who is also coming off an upset win, has had the last four days off. The Nuggets were supposed to play in Brooklyn Sunday, but the Nets’ COVID outbreak had other ideas. In their last game, Denver put up 133 points against Atlanta. Over their last six contests, the Nuggets are scoring almost 120 points/game. If they can maintain that average, then it’s “smooth sailing” tonight. Oklahoma City can’t score even close to 120. They are last in the league at 99.2 points/game. Honestly, the Nuggets won’t even need 120 to cover here. They swept the season series last year and OKC never scored more than 101 in any of those three games. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OKC

Memphis has gone a very impressive 10-2 so far without Ja Morant. But one of those two losses was last night, 105-100 to Portland as 4.5 point home favorites). Now the Grizzlies are set to play again, without rest, Monday vs. Oklahoma City. Since the Morant injury, there’s been just one time the Grizzlies were asked to play back to back nights. On that occasion, they lost the first game but came back to win the second, 108-95 over the Lakers. But when analyzing this win streak, one can see the oddsmakers haven’t really taken the Grizzlies all that seriously. Now they (the oddsmakers) have them laying a big number tonight vs. Oklahoma City. Of course, everyone remembers the last time these teams played. Memphis won in record-setting fashion, 152-79. It was the largest single game margin of victory in NBA history. Tonight is the Thunder’s shot at revenge. OKC just beat the Clippers on Saturday. They are 3-3 straight up since that humiliating defeat earlier this month. We won’t say they’ll win tonight, but take the points as Memphis is in a bad spot and unlikely to continue playing as well as they have without Morant. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

Playing shorthanded, the Heat were still able to go to Philadelphia and win the other night. So winning at Orlando here doesn’t seem like a big ask. The Magic are quite bad this year, which was to be expected. But perhaps things have gone even more poorly than anticipated? The team’s record is 5-24 and they have the worst point differential in the league right now. Since Nov 17, the Magic have won just one game. They’ve lost six in a row, which is one shy of the losing streak they were on at the end of November. So it’s 13 losses in the last 14 games. The Heat have taken it to the Magic recently by winning each of the last three matchups, including a 17-point victory back in October. Orlando’s rotation is depleted now, just like Miami’s, the key is we believe the Heat are more apt to deal with the absences. Miami has won three of its last four games, beating Milwaukee, Chicago and Philly, all top tier Eastern Conference teams. Surely they can beat the lowly Magic by more than the oddsmakers are asking for here. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver has a 12-game win streak over Minnesota that dates back to the 2018-19 season. They swept the last three season series and won 93-91 (as a 1.5-point dog) in the Twin Cities back in October. Now the Nuggets are dealing with a lot of illness and injuries at the moment. But that didn’t prevent them from building a 33-point lead over Washington in the last game. Before that, they went to San Antonio and won by 15. Be aware that the game vs. the Wizards only got close after Nikola Jokic got ejected. Denver has been outstanding at the defensive end in home games this season, giving up only 99.4 points/game. The Timberwolves come in shooting just 40.4 percent their last five games and 42.4% for the year. Prior to a 116-111 win in Portland the other night, the T’wolves had dropped five in a row, three by double digits. Their recent defensive efforts have been terrible with eight of the last nine games seeing them give up 110 or more points. Lay the points in this one. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on GSW

Steph Curry will look to become the NBA’s all-time leader in three-pointers made when his Warriors visit New York on Tuesday. Curry is only two threes shy of Ray Allen’s record entering this game. Considering he made five last night, it would seem like a lock that history will be made tonight in Madison Square Garden. You have to figure Curry’s teammates will want to make the record-setting day a victorious one as well. Laying only a few points here to the struggling Knicks seems to be a “no-brainer.” This line is relatively short because Golden State was in action Monday. They beat Indiana 102-100, but it was the third game in a row where they did not cover the spread. Seeing as the Warriors lead the league in point differential, a win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight doesn’t sound so far-fetched. The Knicks aren’t as good as the Pacers. NY has dropped three straight games and six of its last seven. At home, they lost by 15 to the Bucks on Sunday. It was their third double digit loss in the past five games. Don’t overthink this one. Play on GOLDEN STATE

AAA

This is an 8* on PHOENIX

Thanks to Golden State’s loss Saturday night, Phoenix (21-4) now has the best record in the NBA. The Suns are on the road tonight, facing the Clippers. This is obviously a big game for both teams. But with the Suns having won 20 of their last 21 games, how can you not like them laying such a short number? Defensively, they are one of the best teams in the NBA, allowing only 104.4 points/game and 43.4% shooting. Only Golden State allows fewer points per possession. The Suns are also a top five offensive team in the league. This is where they are vastly superior to the Clippers, who are only 24th in offensive efficiency. Phoenix doesn’t have Devin Booker right now, but the Clippers are playing without both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. This is going to be the Clippers’ 9th game in the last 16 days. Phoenix has had a much “lighter schedule” of late. The only team to beat the Suns since October is Golden State. Without George and Leonard, the Clippers can’t do what the Warriors did. LA is only 6-12 ATS at home this year. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is a 10* on GSW

The Warriors are short road favorites tonight in Philadelphia and we’ve got to lay the points. Golden State is clearly the best team in basketball right now. There’s not a single metric that suggests otherwise. They’ve lost only four games, three by five or less and the other to a Suns team that was on an 18-game win streak. They immediately avenged that loss to the Suns with a 22-point win. The Warriors last two wins have also been by double digits. They beat Orlando by 31 and Portland by 10. Those were at home, but the Warriors are also 7-2 on the road. Golden State is outscoring teams by basically 13 points/game. So that’s why we’ve got zero hesitation about laying this number. Philadelphia hasn’t covered any of its previous three games. Twice they could barely beat an undermanned Charlotte team and then they got crushed by Utah here at home. The Jazz are probably the second best team in the league right now. What Thursday told us is that Philly is not ready for this level of competition. The Sixers aren’t just 3-8 ATS at home, they are only 5-6 straight up. Steph Curry could set the NBA record for most career three-pointers made tonight. Play on GOLDEN STATE

AAA

This is a 10* on DET

The Pistons have lost 10 in a row. But at least they were able to force overtime in their last game, which they lost at the buzzer. The 119-116 loss to the Wizards marked the fourth time that the Pistons lost by five or less during the current losing skid. Tonight they are catching a decent number from a New Orleans team that certainly can’t be labeled as “good.” The Pelicans also lost in overtime Wednesday, 120-114 to Denver, leaving them with the same number of losses that Detroit has (20). We think that this is a good spot to take the points as Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last six games and they were favored one of the two times they failed to cover the spread. This is just the third time this season that New Orleans will be favored to win a game. They’ve gone 0-2 ATS the previous two times, losing both games outright. The Pelicans are also 0-7 ATS this season when facing a team that has a losing record. We’ve got to play against the home team on sheer principle in this one. New Orleans should never be this large of a favorite. Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is an 8* on WASH

Washington desperately needs a win here. The Wizards have lost their last three games and played pretty poorly against Indiana Monday night. While they only ended up losing by six points, the Wizards let the Pacers shoot 52.4 percent and were behind by 10 after the first quarter. At no point in the game did Washington hold a lead of more than three points. Now when you’re this desperate for a win, looking across the court and seeing the Detroit Pistons is definitely a good thing. The Pistons have the worst record in the league (4-19) and are on a nine-game losing streak. Four of their five starters are either rookies or in their second year in the league. Perhaps a new low was established on Monday when the Pistons blew an 18-point lead and lost to Oklahoma City. That Thunder team was coming off a record-setting 73-point loss. Detroit was actually favored to beat OKC. It was only the second time this season that they were favored to win a game. They’re not favored here, but the line is short enough that we will lay it. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 10* on MIL

Cleveland has been one of the real surprising teams in the NBA so far, but we don’t like their chances at Milwaukee tonight. The Cavs took a one-point loss, at home, against Utah on Sunday. That saw them battle back from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter, only to come up one bucket short. Now they must hit the road to face another of the league’s top teams, without rest. The Bucks have won 9 of 10 and on Saturday downed Miami by a score of 124-102. That was despite not having Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has missed the last two games. But the defense from the NBA Champions continues to be sensational as only one of their last ten opponents has been able to shoot better than 43.5%. Milwaukee has beaten Cleveland seven straight times and tonight we look for them to end the Cavs’ 7-game ATS win streak. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* on TOR

The Wizards and Raptors have already played twice.The road team won both times. Washington won here in Toronto on Opening Night 98-83. It wasn’t nearly as low scoring when the Raptors won in D.C 109-100 on Dec 3. This time we like the home team to prevail. While the Raptors have struggled on their home floor, going just 3-8, they did beat Milwaukee here on Thursday. That was a better result than what Washington did on Friday, losing to Cleveland 116-101. The Raptors have defended well recently, holding the last two opponents under 40% shooting. The Wizards haven’t been all that impressive away from home, going 4-7 ATS and scoring 101.8 points/game. Defensively, they were ravaged by the pick and roll against Cleveland. So Toronto has its blueprint for success. Playing their fourth straight game at home, the Raptors should have no excuses tonight. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

We’ve got quite the showdown Friday night in the NBA as the 19-3 Suns, winners of 18 straight games, take on the 18-3 Warriors. Now these teams just met, Tuesday in Phoenix, and the Suns came out ahead by the score of 104-96. Golden State shot a season-low 41.9% in that game and matched a season-high with 23 turnovers. But we think they are deserved favorites for the rematch. First off, this time the game is in San Francisco. The Warriors are 11-1 at home and averaging 116.7 points/game. Secondly, the Suns are at a clear disadvantage having played another game last night. Golden State has not played since Tuesday. While it was a relatively easy 114-103 win for the Suns on Thursday, over the Pistons, things will not be that easy here in the second night of a back to back. Phoenix shot 54% against Detroit, including a blistering 76% in the second quarter, got 48 bench points and had seven players finish in double figures. Don’t expect any of that to happen again tonight. Leading scorer Devin Booker got injured Tuesday, missed last night’s game and isn’t expected to play here. Meanwhile, Steph Curry should break out after being held to 4 of 21 shooting in the last game. Look for the Warriors to end Phoenix’s record win streak and lay the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND 

We’re a little shocked at how low this spread is. The shock is for two reasons. One, San Antonio comes in on its first win streak of the season. Before this, they’d never even won two straight games all year. So we see another win being highly unlikely, especially because they are playing in Portland tonight. That brings us to the second reason for being shocked about the line. The Blazers have been a great home team thus far, winning 10 of 11 games here and covering the spread nine times. We took them the other night when they were hosting Detroit and that ended up being an easy 110-92 win as 9.5 point favorites. It was a game that the Blazers basically controlled from start to finish. They led by as many as 26. Now Damian Lillard is still out (for at least 10 days), but considering how the Blazers looked on Tuesday without him, we don’t think that’s going to be a problem here. The Spurs aren’t a very good team and winning for a third straight time as underdogs seems unlikely. On the road, they are just 2-7 and they average less than 100 points. Portland is 5-1 ATS its last six games vs. San Antonio. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland’s road woes continued last night as they were blown out in Utah, losing 129-107 as 7.5-point underdogs. That completed an 0-3 road trip for the Blazers, who are now 1-10 (SU and ATS) for the year away from home. But they have been a completely different team at home where they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. Starting tonight, they will play eight of their next nine games in Portland, including the next four. Even better is that the first home game (tonight) is against a 4-16 Detroit team that stinks no matter where it plays. The Pistons have lost their last six games. While many of them have been close, this is going to be their fourth road game in seven days, all of them taking place out West. At home, Portland is scoring 12 more points per game than what they allow. Detroit, who is one of three teams not even averaging 100 points/game, gives up 110 points/game on the road. Look for the home team to win this one by double digits. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10*  on ATLANTA

It’s been quite the difference when it comes to home vs. away for the Atlanta Hawks. The team has captured five straight, all at home, where it is now 8-1 on the young season. But on the road, they are 1-8 SU and an even worse 0-9 ATS. It’s back on the road tonight for a date with San Antonio. Given the extraordinary split we’ve seen thus far from the Hawks, you may be thinking now is the time to buck them. But facing one of the league’s worst teams should allow for their first ATS road win of 2021. The Spurs have lost five in a row while getting outscored by 13 points/game. Atlanta’s average margin of victory during the five game win streak is 14.2. So we’re looking at two teams at polar opposites of the spectrum here. The Spurs have only won four games so far, two of them coming against Orlando. A late rally Monday vs. Phoenix made the game appear closer than it actually was. Most of the way, it very much looked like San Antonio would be headed for its fourth double digit defeat in the last 10 days. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS their last five times playing with exactly one day of rest. Play on ATLANTA

AAA

This is a 10* on NYK

So there’s no LeBron James tonight for the 9-9 Lakers, who visit Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks. James is suspended for getting into a fight with the Pistons’ Isaiah Stewart on Sunday. The Lakers went on to win in Detroit, but were actually behind by 15 entering the fourth quarter against one of the worst teams in the NBA. That doesn’t bode well for tonight. The Lakers have lost six of their last 10 games, most of those without James, who had been out with an abdominal strain. The Knicks, who are 4-7 their past 11 games, thought they had a win Sunday when they were leading the Bulls going into the fourth. But they gave up 37 points in the final quarter to lose 109-103 as 5.5 point road underdogs. Expect New York to play better at home tonight - for a full four quarters - and take advantage of the Lakers not having LeBron. On the road, the Lakers have been very bad defensively, giving up 117.3 points/game. Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is a 10* on CHI

Tied with Brooklyn for first place in the East, the Bulls should continue to roll Monday when they host Indiana. Chicago is 12-5 and has won six of its eight home games. They came from behind to win last night, 109-103 over the Knicks. Because it’s the second night of a back to back, oddsmakers have set a low number here and we think that’s a mistake. Indiana is 2-9 on the road. While they only lost by three in their last road game, they were actually down 25 at one point. That was against Charlotte. The Pacers did bounce back to defeat New Orleans on Saturday, but that was at home. The Bulls have covered both times they’ve been in a back to back this year, winning those two games by a combined 33 points. Lay the points in this one. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* on GSW

Golden State is once again the best team in the league as they are 14-2. They’ve only been beaten once in regulation and perhaps the most impressive thing about them is that they are 12-4 against the spread. They are 10-1 SU/ATS L11 games and tonight host a Toronto team that will be playing its fourth straight road game and third in four nights. The Raptors snapped a three-game losing streak Friday in Sacramento. But they are outclassed here with Steph Curry set to return from a one-game absence. Curry sat out the Warriors’ 105-102 win in Detroit Friday. Though that game ended up being close, the Warriors led by 16 going into the fourth quarter. We know Detroit is bad, but the fact the Warriors were up 16 without their best player is still impressive. Golden State is winning at home by an average of 16.5 points/game and we just can’t see Toronto staying within the number in this one. Play on GOLDEN STATE

AAA

This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Phoenix, the Western Conference Champions from last season, once again finds itself as the hottest team in the NBA. The Suns have won eight in a row entering Monday and have covered the spread seven straight times. This has them at 9-3 for the year and the only team ahead of the Suns right now (in the West) is Golden State). Tonight the Suns head to Minnesota to face a Timberwolves team that has experienced very different results over its last eight games. The T’wolves are 1-7 straight up and against the spread since Oct 30 with five of the seven losses coming by double digits. Even though Phoenix played last night, we can’t see Minnesota keeping this game close. It’s not as if last night was a difficult game for the Suns; they won 115-89, their third straight double digit win. There’s just no reason not to lay this short number as the Timberwolves have failed to cover the last five times they’ve been an underdog. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is a 9* on DENVER

We think Denver is the right side in this Western Conference NBA matchup. The Nuggets will be looking to wrap up a perfect 5-0 homestand tonight when they host Portland. The Blazers have not been good on the road so far, losing six of seven while being outscored by roughly 8.7 points per game. So laying the points doesn’t bother us. Not with Denver leading the league in scoring defense. Through 12 games, the Nuggets are allowing an average 98.3 points/game. There have been only three times they’ve allowed triple digits and if you take away the one time Utah scored 122 (it was the second night of a back to back for Denver), then the defensive numbers look even more phenomenal. At home, the Nuggets are giving up just 93.4 points/game. Nikola Jokic has recorded a triple double in the last two games he’s played. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on BOS

Cleveland is 8-5 and coming off a 20-point win, but we’re still a bit skeptical. The 20-point win last night was against the Pistons, who are one of the NBA’s worst teams. The Cavs are now 9-3-1 ATS overall, tied with the Warriors for the best mark in the league. But they’ve pulled out quite a few narrow wins so far, including three in a row by three points or less to start the month. We’re about to find out how “for real” Cleveland is as they host Boston tonight. The Celtics also won last night, needing OT to get by Milwaukee 122-113. It was their fourth win in five games. The Cavs do have the better record coming into tonight’s game, but oddsmakers still don’t respect them that much as they are underdogs at home. We’re going to lay the short number with Boston. Though they had to go to overtime to get the win last night, Cleveland is probably in worse shape heading into the second game of the back to back. They’re missing Colllin Sexton (who averaged 23.3 points/game last year), Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen and possibly Lamar Stevens. Boston is pretty healthy coming into this game, save for the Jaylen Brown injury. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on DAL

Dallas is off a loss while San Antonio is off a win. But with a 7-4 record, the Mavs are having the better overall start to the year. The Mavs went down in Chicago Wednesday night, losing 117-107 as they could not keep up in the second half. But they’d won three in a row prior to that loss with one of the wins coming here in San Antonio. The win was by a single point, 109-108, but Dallas didn’t even shoot the ball well. Expect them to tonight. The Spurs picked up just their fourth win of the year when they beat Sacramento 136-117 Wednesday night. They hit 18 threes in the win, something that you won’t see them do again anytime soon. The Spurs have yet to win two straight games this year and they lost to OKC the most recent time they were coming off a victory. San Antonio is actually 0-2 vs. Dallas this year as they also lost to them by five points back on Oct 28. They did cover the spread in both losses, but that won’t be the case here as the Mavericks have yet to lose two straight games this season. It all adds up to a third win over the Spurs and this time Dallas covers. Play on DALLAS

AAA

This is an 8* on LA LAKERS

It’s been quite the disappointing start to the season for the LA Lakers, who are just 5-5 straight up and 2-8 against the spread. They’ve lost their last two games. Not only did LeBron James not play on Saturday, but teammate Anthony Davis (sprained thumb) was on the court for only seven minutes. The result was a 105-90 loss to Portland. It wasn’t even that close as the Lakers trailed by 31 going into the fourth quarter. We were happy as we were on the Blazers. But here we’re going with the Lakers. Yes, they played a bad game the other night and still won’t have James. But they are facing a Charlotte team that just got blown out last night in this building by the Clippers. Charlotte is 0-4 straight up and against the spread in its last four games and this is their third road game in the last four nights. That’s a bad situation. There have been multiple games this year where the Lakers blew a big lead and lost. We bring that up to illustrate that they should have a better record. Even without James (and maybe Davis?), we’re confident they can down the Hornets. Play on LA LAKERS

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland is playing the second night of a back to back on Saturday, but may be catching a huge break in that the Lakers could be without both of its superstars in tonight’s game. We know LeBron James won’t play. James suffered an abdominal strain in Tuesday’s game vs. the Rockets. He missed the Lakers last game, which was a loss to Oklahoma City. That game saw Anthony Davis sprain his thumb. Davis is questionable for tonight. Look for the Blazers, who won by four against Indiana on Friday, to take advantage of their banged up visitors. They are a different team where their record is 4-1. (They are 0-4 on the road). Damian Lillard is having an awful start to the year. But the fact that Portland still won even with him shooting 2 for 13 last night is probably a good thing. There’s just no way Lillard won’t start to shoot the ball better. The Lakers are not a terribly deep team. Without James and Davis, they’re pretty bad. LA’s ATS record is 2-7, worst in the league. Even if Davis plays, we don’t see them covering this number. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is an 8* on CHARLOTTE

The Hornets and Kings meet tonight in Sacramento with the home team coming in as a slight favorite. The Kings are 4-4 overall and coming off a 112-99 win against New Orleans. Charlotte is 5-4 but has lost its last two games, one by three at home to Cleveland and the other by 22 at Golden State. We like the visitors in this one for a variety of reasons. One is that they are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last five times they’ve played Sacramento. Two is that half of the Kings wins this year have come against New Orleans, who is 1-8 and in last place in the West. Their win on Wednesday marked the first time all year that the Kings won a game by more than four points. Third is that Charlotte is 17-5 ATS the last 22 times they’ve been coming off a double digit loss. It was a season low 92 points that they scored in their last game. Expect a much better performance tonight. Play on CHARLOTTE

AAA

This is a 10* on MIA

Miami is catching Boston in the second night of a back to back, a situation that clearly benefits the home team. But it’s not as if the Heat need much additional “help” right now. They are 6-1 with the best point differential in the NBA and all six wins have come by 13 points or greater. The Celtics have been somewhat of a mess in recent days due to in-fighting. Reports are that the players hashed it out last night before downing Orlando 92-79, but we’ll see about that. It’s a big jump in class from facing the Magic (arguably the league’s worst team) to the Heat (who have been better than everybody to this point). Miami is holding teams to 98.9 points/game, the fewest in the league. In six of its eight games, Boston has shot worse than 44% overall. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

It’s been a poor start to the season for NBA Champion Milwaukee. Losers of three straight, the Bucks head to Detroit Tuesday night to face the Pistons. The good news here is that few teams are in sorrier shape right now than the one hailing from the Motor City. The Pistons are 1-5 and just lost by 26 to the Nets, who had previously been struggling just as the Bucs have. We’ll gladly lay the short number in this one as this is where Giannis and company should right the ship. The Bucks have dominated the Pistons in recent years, winning 14 straight meetings. We understand that the Bucks are playing short handed right now. But even with “just Giannis,” they’ve got way more in the tank than does Detroit, who has only gotten one game out of top draft pick Cade Cunningham thus far and he went 1 for 8 from the field. The Pistons' one win came against Orlando, who is the only team in the East that might finish with a worse record. All five times that Detroit has been an underdog, they’ve lost by at least six points. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

After an embarrassing effort in the first game of the season, Dallas has put together two straight impressive wins. They beat Houston in the home opener Tuesday, 116-106. But they failed to cover the 10.5 point spot. Here the number is a lot more manageable as they are set to host San Antonio. Coach Jason Kidd remains a somewhat questionable hire for the Mavericks, however the players seem to be working well with him. A decision was made to play EVERYONE (all 15 players) against the Rockets. The Spurs have had a different leading scorer in every game but just one win. That win came in the opener against Orlando. The Spurs have since lost to the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers in a trio of fairly close encounters. We can see why some might think SA will keep this game close, but look for Dallas to shoot the ball much better than they have so far. At barely over 40%, the Mavs have the lowest FG% in the league right now. That is not going to continue with the likes of Luka Doncic on the roster. Lay the points here as the Spurs have allowed 121 and 125 points in their previous two games. We've got them ranked as one of the worst teams in the league. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Save for a disastrous effort last Thursday in Miami, the Bucks have been every bit as good as expected to start the new NBA season. The NBA Champs are 3-1 with wins over the Nets, Spurs and Pacers. The last two wins came on the road. Now they return to Milwaukee to take on the upstart Timberwolves. This is a big step up in class for what is still a young Minnesota team. So far they’ve faced New Orleans (who is without Zion Williamson) twice and Houston. All three games came at home. They lost to the Pelicans on Monday, failing to score 100 points for the second straight game. We cannot see where they get the necessary offense to stay with the Bucks tonight. The Bucks have averaged 122.3 points/game in their three wins. We’ve seen more “small ball” recently with Brook Lopez out of the lineup. The Bucks have covered six straight home games when you go back to last year’s championship run. Minnesota was a poor 10-26 in their 36 road games last season. Lay it! Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Though this is the second night of a back to back for the Nuggets, we expect them to come out and play hard Tuesday on TNT. It was an embarrassing result for them last night as they finished with just 87 points and lost to the lowly Cavs. Tonight they face a team at the opposite end of the NBA hierarchy, that being Utah, who is off to a 2-0 start. The Jazz have covered the spread in both wins. However, keep in mind that the two teams they’ve faced so far: Oklahoma City and Sacramento. The Jazz are well-rested coming into tonight as they have not played since Friday. But the thing with that is they are 0-6 against the spread the previous six times they’ve played a game on three or more days' rest. No one on the Nuggets, besides Nikola Jokic, scored more than 12 points last night. The team shot 9 of 38 from three-point range and just 40% percent overall. We expect across the board improvement from them tonight and do not believe Utah’s rest advantage will play a significant role. If anything, the Jazz could be a little bit rusty. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on POR

Portland is off an impressive 134-105 win against Phoenix the other night. In case you forgot, the Suns were in the NBA Finals last July. Now the Blazers head to LA hoping to end a six-game losing streak to the Clippers. The Clippers are not what they once were as Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely and their record is 0-2. They lost to the Warriors in the first game and the Grizzlies in the second. Both games were close (decided by six points or less) but that doesn’t help if you’re the favorite as the Clippers are tonight. Plus while the two games have ended up close, both times the Clippers found themselves down by double digits. They trailed by as many as 16 in both contests. Portland is averaging 127.5 points/game which is just too many for the Clippers to overcome when laying points. In the early going, LA is shooting only 43.8% from the field. Grab the points. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GSW

Golden State is 2-0 after sweeping the two LA teams. They upset the Lakers 121-114 on Opening Night. Then they defeated the Clippers 115-113 on Thursday. Two close wins, but in the Clippers game they did lead by as many as 19 at one juncture. Steph Curry made 10 three pointers in that game and scored 45 points. We’re starting to see “the Warriors of old.” While we aren’t saying they are back to that championship level, they are certainly better than a Sacramento team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 15 years. The Kings did win their first game, 124-121 over Portland, but couldn’t hold off Utah in a 110-101 loss on Friday. This is a situation where we simply believe one team (Golden State) is much better than the other and we’re getting an early season discount. Play on GOLDEN STATE

This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

The Nets will look to rebound from a poor Opening Night performance when they travel to Philadelphia on Friday. The Sixers are a mess right now with the ongoing Ben Simmons drama. Of course, Brooklyn has its own share of drama with Kyrie Irving. But they can still call upon both Kevin Durant and James Harden. That may have not been enough when facing Milwaukee Tuesday, but we expect them to play far better here. The 76ers did beat the Pelicans by 20 on Wednesday. But tonight they are unlikely to shoot the ball as well as they did in that first game when they connected on over half their field goal attempts, including 52% from three. Really, this play boils down to two simple things: we think the Nets are better and also can’t see them starting 0-2. They were underdogs Tuesday. Tonight they are favorites. They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks flew their way into the Eastern Conference Finals last season before eventually bowing out to Milwaukee in six games. After hiring Nate McMillian to be the head coach on March 1st, no team in the East had a better won-loss record than Atlanta’s 27-11. They also won 23 of their final 29 home games. The entire core of that team has been brought back and there have been some minor additions. What made the Hawks’ late season run so impressive is that they had several key players injured. Now fully healthy, we expect them to challenge for a top three spot in the standings. Can’t say the same for Dallas out in the Western Conference. Jason Kidd was a questionable coaching hire in our view. The Mavericks did not get out of the first round last season and are no better on paper for 2021-22. It’s only the first game of the season, but one motivating factor for the Hawks is they lost both games to the Mavs last year. Both losses occurred before McMillian was hired. Atlanta is 18-4 ATS its last 22 games as a home favorite. It’s a small number tonight. Lay it! Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

The Houston Rockets are not expected to be all that competitive for the 2021-22 season. Most prognostications have them and Oklahoma City as the likely two worst teams in the Western Conference. But should Minnesota, another team that’s not very good, be laying this many points in a season opener? Probably not. The Timberwolves have made the playoffs only once since 2003-04. While they did improve some after a coaching change, they still ranked near the bottom of the league defensively last year. They brought some new pieces to help them on the defensive end, but the problem is those players are liabilities at the offensive end. Other than Karl-Anthony Towns, there just aren’t many good two-way players on this roster. The T’wolves were only favored in 11 games last season and lost five of them. Their scoring differential when favored was only +1.5 per game. So they are not a team you’d want to lay points with. Houston is young and basically playing with “house money” coming into the new season. They had a winning (ATS) record as a road underdog last season and are capable of pulling the upset here. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on PHX

The NBA Finals have taken a dire turn for Phoenix. Once up 2-0, they are now down 3-2. This would be their first three-game losing skid since January, which is also the only other one (three-game skid) that they’ve been on all season. It’s a must-win in Game 6 at Milwaukee and we will be grabbing the points. For starters, the Suns are 14-5 ATS coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. They were four-point favorites back in Game Five. This is just the second time in the postseason that the Suns have been trailing in the series. The Bucks are 6-17 ATS when on a three-game win streak and 0-3 ATS off a straight up win as an underdog. Phoenix has shot 50% from the field in this series, which is pretty impressive. It also makes the series deficit that more shocking. In the last two games, the Suns have shot 53%. They were 68.4% from three in the last game. Devin Booker, off two straight 40+ point games, should get more help from teammates tonight. For Milwaukee, Middleton and Holiday will probably not combine for 56 points again (that’s what they went for in Game Five). Facing elimination for the first time, you know Phoenix is going to fight to the end. The last two losses were by just 10 total points. The underdog will cover in this one. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

An improbable Game 4 victory saw the Bucks take nearly 20 more shots from the field. That was the key as they were outshot 51.3% to 40.2%, but still won 109-103. Not only did they win, they covered the 4.5-point spread as well. But now it's back to Phoenix. The home team is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in this series and we believe that trend is going to continue in Game 5 Saturday night. The Suns should have won Game 4. Devin Booker was on fire the entire game, but was eventually cooled off by foul trouble. We don’t see a player of Booker’s caliber getting into foul trouble at home. Chris Paul should play better in Game 5. He had just 10 points and five turnovers in Game 4. Kris Middleton went for 40 for the Bucks, but as we’ve seen throughout the playoffs, he’s better at home. The Suns made only 16 of 54 three-point attempts in the two games at Milwaukee. They made 20 threes in Game 2, the last time here. Milwaukee has not won or even covered a game in Phoenix the last three seasons. The Bucks really aren’t a great road team (just 25-22 SU) and they are just 3-7 ATS as underdogs this year. This is only the second time in the entire playoff run that the Suns have lost two in a row. Their one and only three game losing streak this season occurred back in January. We can’t see them losing a third straight game here. Lay the number. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks’ backs are against the wall here as they are down 0-2 in the best of seven series. But they now get to be the home team. This is Milwaukee’s first time hosting an NBA Finals game since 1974! So expect a “rocking atmosphere” with Giannis and company delivering a win. Antetokounmpo did all he could in Game 2 with 42 points. Obviously he’s not bothered by the injury. He needs more help from his teammates and should get it at home. As we’ve been saying throughout the Bucks playoff run, both Middleton and Holiday always seem to shoot better at home. They were a combined 12 for 37 in Game 2, so improvement from them is a virtual guarantee. Phoenix also won’t make 20 three pointers again as they did in the last game. Dario Sarkic has been lost for the remainder of the series and Torrey Craig, a key bench player for the Suns, got injured in the second half of Game 2. Milwaukee obviously cannot afford to lose here as they would be in an 0-3 hole that no NBA team has ever gotten out of. Fortunate for them is they are 7-1 straight up and against the spread in home playoff games. The Bucks may be 0-5 SU and ATS the last five meetings with the Suns, but four of the games were in Phoenix. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on ATL

The insane injury bug that has seemingly bitten every single team in these playoffs has struck again, this time claiming Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks. Milwaukee had been the one team to stay pretty much injury free this postseason, but now things have really gone sideways for them. They were terrible in Game 4, especially after Antetokounmpo went down. They were outscored by 14 after the injury and ended up losing 110-88. With Antetokounmpo doubtful for Game 5 and his entire future status in doubt, there is simply no way we could take the Bucks in this spot. Atlanta has proven they can win without Trae Young, doing so by 22 in the last game. Young is more likely to play tonight than Antetokounmpo and his return would be a real nice luxury to have. The Hawks are 3-0 SU and ATS this season off a game where they allowed 90 or less points. Lou Williams was tremendous starting in place of Young as he scored 21 points and had eight assists in Game 4. The Hawks are also 15-5-1 ATS off their last 21 double digit wins. Getting points against an Antetokounmpo-less Bucks team seems like a steal, even if Young does not play. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on PHX

The Suns have not lost two in a row since the Lakers series. So coming off the loss in Game 5, we’ll take them here in their second attempt to close out the Clippers. Digging themselves into a massive early hole (trailed 20-5 at the outset) did Phoenix no favors Monday night. That poor start basically decided the game. It was the first time in the series that the Suns trailed at the half. The first positive bit of news to report is that they are 7-3 against the spread this season when off a double digit loss. They are 19-7 ATS off a loss of any kind. It is unlikely that Chris Paul and Jae Crowder will combine to go 0 for 10 from behind the three point line again. That’s what they did in Game 5. Similarly, the Clippers probably won’t shoot 54.8% again like they did in Game 5. Paul George went for 41 points, his playoff high. The Clippers are definitely more banged up at this point of the series with Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and now Ivica Zubac all injured. LA is 3-6 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. Our call is that the Suns end the Western Conference Finals tonight. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Atlanta is now 3-0 in Game 1’s during this playoff run. All three wins have come as underdogs. They were +8 for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals here in Milwaukee, a game they came from behind to win 116-113. Trae Young rebounded nicely from a dismal Game 7 against the 76ers. He had 48 points Wednesday night. The Hawks have been underdogs in nine straight games. Tonight will make it 10. They are an impressive 6-3 SU those past nine games, but have never won three straight games, which is what they are looking to do this evening. But we can’t see the Bucks losing both home games to open the series. So we’ll lay the points. Even though the Hawks have won five of their last six on the road, they are still just a .500 team (for the year) away from home. The Bucks are 31-11 SU at home and were 5-0 in the playoffs before dropping Game 1. They were also on a 13-game win streak at home going back to the regular season. Young can’t score 48 in every game and the injury to Bogdan Bogdanovic seems significant as he went just 1 for 6 in Game 1. Bogdanovic, not Young, has been the team’s best 3-point shooter this season. Expect the Bucks to shoot way better from three in this game (they were just 8 of 36 in Game 1), especially Kris Middleton (who was 0 for 9). Lay it! Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS

Both Games 1 and 2 were tightly contested and the Suns are up 2-0 heading back to LA. We are also 2-0 in the series. Phoenix was the play for Game 1 and they covered the spread thanks to a pair of late Devin Booker free throws. We took the Clippers in Game 2 and that probably should have been an outright win, but we’ll take the cover. The finish to Game 2 was wild with the Clippers allowing a game-winning alley-oop in the final second. For the third straight series, they are down 0-2. In the first round, they won Game 3 in Dallas 118-108. In the second round, they won Game 3 at home, 132-106 over Utah. Going back to Game 7 of the first round, they’ve won four straight at home - all by double digits. The season is basically on the line tonight. Chris Paul may be back for the Suns, which is why the line has shifted towards the Suns after initially flipping to the Clippers -1. But Paul will have rust to shake off and bettors are overreacting to the news. Reggie Jackson has stepped up for the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard out as he’s averaging 23 points over the last four games. To us, this is a very obvious bounce back situation as the Clippers probably should have won Game 2. The Clippers are 6-2 ATS when trailing in the series during these playoffs. Phoenix is 1-9 ATS its last 10 visits to the Staples Center to face the Clippers. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS

We’re going with the Clippers plus the points in Game 2. We laid the points with the Suns in Game 1. They shot 55% from the field and were led by Devin Booker’s 40 points. Booker also had a triple double. Booker and his teammates aren’t likely to be that prolific for a second straight game. Considering that the Clippers were never out of Game 1, we give them a solid shot at pulling the upset here even as they continue to play without Kawhi Leonard. They defeated the Jazz twice without Leonard. Phoenix doesn’t have Chris Paul. The Clippers are 5-2 ATS when trailing in these series during these playoffs. Game 1 was tied going into the fourth quarter. Factoring in the likely decline in shooting by Phoenix, the Clippers should easily cover this spread. The Suns haven’t lost since Game 3 of the first round and can’t go on winning “forever.” Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is an 8* on PHOENIX

So it is the Clippers vs. the Suns in the Western Conference Finals. But no Kawhi Leonard or Chris Paul in Game 1. This is the Clippers’ 1st ever Conference Finals appearance. It’s the first for the Suns since 2010 and they haven’t been in the NBA Finals since 1993. So we’re guaranteed some “new blood” out of the Western Conference this year. We were shocked that the Clippers beat the Jazz two straight times without Leonard. They trailed by 25 in the third quarter Friday. While LA got just one day off between series, Phoenix hasn’t played in a week. The Suns looked very impressive in sweeping Denver, winning all four games comfortably. They’ve won and covered seven in a row. It’s a shame that Paul is out, but we believe the Suns still get it done at home in Game 1. The Clippers lost the first two games of both prior series. We don’t see them continuing to post the best offensive efficiency rating in the playoffs. That’s because Phoenix allowed only 100.8 points/game in the first two rounds. The Clippers don’t have Serge Ibaka either and are 3-7-1 ATS off a straight up win by 10 or more points. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

The home team has won all six games in this series. We expect the trend to continue in Game 7. That means Brooklyn advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. Even having to go without Kyrie Irving, the Nets should put up a lot of points at home. The three games at Milwaukee have seen them average only 89.3 points/game. But at home they’ve averaged 118.0 and one of those was without Irving and also James Harden making just 1 of 10 field goal attempts. We trust Kevin Durant to lead the way Saturday. He is averaging 33.3 points/game in the series. Harden shot a lot better in Game 6 and finished with 16 points. He’s played 40+ minutes in both games since returning and we’re gonna predict a series high in points of Harden here in Game 7. On the flip side, look for Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton’s numbers to go down. Middleton had a game-high 38 in Game 6. He is averaging almost 31 points in the three games in Milwaukee. But that average goes down to 18.3 in Brooklyn. That’s a big difference. The Bucks crunch time play has not impressed us. They were lucky to get out to a big early lead in the last game. Brooklyn has the best player (Durant) and is at home. The Bucks’ road record is just 22-19 SU and they are 1-5 ATS as underdogs this season. If you include the regular season, the home team is 9-0 in head to head meetings between these teams in 2020-21. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on UTAH

Utah thought they had the Clippers right where they wanted them heading into Game 5. The announcement that Kawhi Leonard would miss Game 5 led to the line skyrocketing. But the Clippers pulled the 119-111 upset and are now a game away from advancing to their first ever Western Conference Finals. Last year they were in this same position but famously dropped three straight to the Denver Nuggets. They only get two shots this time, after starting down 0-2 in the series. We don’t like their chances of getting it done in Game 6. Leonard is still expected to be out. Same with Serge Ibaka. This is the first three-game losing streak of the season for Utah, who had the NBA’s best regular season record. So history favors them getting it done. We realize the same could have been said for Game 5 and that was at home. But can you trust Paul George to score 37 points again? We don’t. The Jazz scored 65 first half points on Wednesday and six players finished in double figures. The Donovan Mitchell ankle injury remains a concern, but at least he’s gonna play (unlike Leonard). The Clippers are just 2-5 SU/ATS when leading a playoff series the last three years. It was very logical to “count them out” going into the last game. Utah won’t make the same mistake twice. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks seemed to have all the momentum heading into Game 5. They’d won the previous two games, plus James Harden and Kyrie Irving were both hurt for Brooklyn. Harden wound up suiting up Tuesday, but he did not play well (shot 1 of 10) and Milwaukee quickly jumped out to a 29-15 lead after one quarter of play. Their lead was 16 midway through the third, which is when Kevin Durant took over. Durant turned in a game for the ages with 49-17-10. But we don’t see him doing that again in Game 6 at Milwaukee. The Nets have lost all four games in Milwaukee this season, Irving is still out and Harden clearly isn’t 100 percent. So lay the points with the home team facing elimination. The Nets scored only 83 and 96 points in Games 3 and 4 here in Milwaukee. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS

For the second series in a row, the Clippers find themselves down 0-2. There is a difference this time though. In the first round versus Dallas, those first two losses both came at home. The first two losses of the second round were both in Salt Lake City. So now, instead of having to go on the road to even things up, the Clippers can do so at home. They did lose the first three home games to Dallas, but won Game 7 here in Staples Center by a score of 126-111. We expect Kawhi Leonard to play better tonight than he did in Games 1 and 2 when he averaged just 22 points. Game 2 was a bit of a disaster as LA gave up 66 points in the first half and was down by as many as 21. But they actually rallied to take the lead in the fourth quarter. We certainly don’t see them falling behind that big in Game 3. In fact, they figure to come out quite strong given the series deficit that they are facing. Utah isn’t going to come close to matching its shooting from Game 2 (55.3 FG%). The Jazz were 20 of 39 on three-point attempts in that last game as well. The Clippers were the top three point shooting team in the NBA this year, so look for them to turn the tables Saturday. Utah has not covered any of the last four times they’ve been underdogs. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 8* on LAC

The Clippers turned in their highest scoring effort of the first round when they most needed it, winning Game 7 against Dallas 126-111. Most will view this as a disadvantage, having to start a new series basically 48 hours after winning a Game 7. But we like the Clippers as underdogs in Game 1 at Utah. Getting points, LA is 7-4 ATS this season and they’ve taken the game outright six times. We played against Utah in Game 1 of the opening round. That was the only game of the Memphis series they lost. Instead of focusing on how little time the Clippers had off between the two series, maybe we should focus more on how much time the Jazz have had off. They are 2-8 ATS since 2018-19 when having at least three days off between games. They are 0-2 ATS this season in that scenario with Game 1 vs. Memphis being the most recent instance. Mike Conley may be unavailable tonight and that would be a major blow for the home team. The two best players in this series (Leonard, George) will both be wearing road colors tonight. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA

Joel Embiid’s Game 1 status is up in the air, but remember that the Sixers won the series clincher against Washington without him. This line feels awfully short for a top seed playing at home. We’d say the line should be -3 before factoring in any kind of home court advantage. When these teams met three times in the regular season, the home team won all three times. Philadelphia hosted twice and won by 44 and 22. Those wins came in April too. The significance of that is that it was post-coaching change for Atlanta, which is when they got a lot better. The Hawks have lost only 11 games since Nate McMillan took over, but two of those were to the Sixers. Philadelphia scored 120 or more points in all four of its first round wins and regardless of whether Embiid plays today or not, they will be much more difficult to defend than the Knicks were (for Atlanta) in Round 1.  Speaking of defending, the Sixers gave up the second fewest number of points per possession in the league during the regular season. Atlanta has traditionally struggled in this round, going 6-17-1 ATS its last 24 games. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

Look for Brooklyn to win Game 1 comfortably. Milwaukee is an underdog, which is rare, but it hasn’t been a good situation for them - at all. 0-4 this season - straight up and ATS - and 0-8 SU and ATS the last eight times. They’ve yet to face the Nets with Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving all suited up. We think the Bucks stock may be a bit too high after it took the minimum four games to beat the Heat in the first round. It’s not as if the Nets had much difficulty ousting Boston either. They did lose once, but that took a superhuman 50-point effort from Jayson Tatum. All four Nets wins in the first round were by double digits. They are the only team that averaged more points per game than Milwaukee in the regular season. Again, they did so despite the three All Stars not playing much together. Not surprising, Brooklyn’s scoring increased against Boston to 123.4 points/game. And it should be noted the Celtics are a pretty decent defensive team. Milwaukee is 6-16 ATS in 2020-21 following a win streak of three or more. A full week off for the Bucks is not ideal when having to deal with the Nets’ tempo. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

We’re now 6-0 over the five games of this series with the Under giving us three of those wins. We also won once with the Over. We’ve played the side twice, winning with Dallas in Game 2 and the Clippers in Game 3. The Mavericks now have a 3-2 series lead after taking Game 5 by a score of 105-100. They got 42-8-14 from Luka Doncic, who has been the best player - on either team - in the series. If you’re a Clippers fan, the scary thing is to hear Doncic say “I could have played way better.” We agree that the Mavs could have shot better as a team. They made only 41.6% from the field in Game 5. The home team has yet to win a game, but we see that as likely to change in Game 6 where we like the short home dog. It’s difficult to see the home team losing six in a row in one series. Play on DALLAS

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