Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 8:35 ET - Normally I would suggest playing the money line here but at the time of this write-up at 8 AM ET on gameday morning, the money is only +110 but the spread is +2 and that gives enough value to grab the point spread in my opinion. Why I am looking for a Milwaukee win here? As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. These teams have met 9 times this season. 3 times in the regular season and 6 times in this playoff series. The home team has won all 9 games. Then the oddsmakers opened up the Bucks as 1.5 point road favorites here. The betting markets of course are saying the oddsmakers do not know what they are doing and the line has moved 3.5 points to where it is now Brooklyn that is a 2-point favorite. Keep in mind, the Nets are without Kyrie Irving and to me the Bucks sure look like the hungrier team. They are playing with a lot of intensity and passion right now. I know Brooklyn will dig deeper at home in this Game 7 but the hungrier team and healthier team will not be denied in Game 7 no matter the venue. The Bucks did a great job in the rebounding department and in terms of getting to the free throw line in Game 6 and they will do the same here and get the road win. 10* MILWAUKEE

2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Sixers led by 18 going to the 4th quarter Wednesday and lost. They led by 13 at the half in Atlanta Monday and lost. After blowing back to back games the 76ers are in trouble as the Hawks are in the drivers seat now. However, Philadelphia knows that with one win tonight, the Sixers can force a Game 7 which would be in Philly. I do not see them being denied in that quest. Someone, or even a few players (the star talent is there) will step up for the 76ers in the fourth quarter of this game. This team should have a "going for the kill" mentality throughout the entirety of this game. The following is an excerpt from what I mentioned in a write-up earlier in this series on Philadelphia when they took a 2-1 series lead by winning Game 3 at Atlanta: "The Hawks played in a much weaker division this season than Philadelphia did. Note that Philly played in a tough Atlantic Division but still went 10-2 in the division. Also, the 76ers went 13-2 against the weak Southeast Division. The Hawks record was helped by the fact they went 9-3 in their own division. Against the Atlantic Division, Atlanta had a losing record at 7-8." All of that still holds true here and now you have the 76ers very angry after back to back losses and they are on the road so that is keeping this game at a very playable number - currently in the -3 range. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Money Lin Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets Money Line +190 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - This play is very similar in thinking to my successful money line play on the Nets in Tuesday's game. The very first line to come out on this game was a 3.5 which means the game is expected to be quite tight. Yet, the line then moved the way of the Bucks to force it up into the -6 range and so the money line has also moved accordingly. So now we can get Brooklyn as a big money line dog even though the original point spread arrived at by the odds makers was telling us this should be a very close game. Couple that with the fact that so often in these playoffs - almost without fail - the team that has won SU has also won ATS. We have seen very few games where a team wins SU but does not also win ATS. Long-term, dating back to the regular season, the Bucks have been following this trend too. Here we get a chance to take a team at nearly 2 to 1 plus money odds and we're taking a team that has won 12 of 15 games! Yes Kyrie Irving is again out but James Harden will surely be much better tonight in his 2nd game back after being nothing short of awful on Tuesday. The Nets still won that game despite his struggles and that says a lot. Now I know this game is at Milwaukee of course but with Harden playing much better tonight and the Nets having swung momentum back in their favor, I am sensing a big upset win tonight. 10* BROOKLYN +190

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #582 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:30 ET - The following is an excerpt from what I mentioned in a write-up earlier in this series on Philadelphia when they took a 2-1 series lead by winning Game 3 at Atlanta: "The Hawks played in a much weaker division this season than Philadelphia did. Note that Philly played in a tough Atlantic Division but still went 10-2 in the division. Also, the 76ers went 13-2 against the weak Southeast Division. The Hawks record was helped by the fact they went 9-3 in their own division. Against the Atlantic Division, Atlanta had a losing record at 7-8." All of that still holds true here and now you have Philly, after blowing a big lead in Game 4, all of the sudden knotted at 2 games apiece in this series but back home where they are known for dominating. The 76ers have one of the best combined home records in recent seasons among any of the teams in the league. Now of course we not only need the Sixers to win this game but also cover the spread. To put your mind at ease about this but, not sure if you have noticed in this post-season, the spread has hardly ever mattered. There have been very few games where the SU winner was not also the ATS winner. That trend dates back to the regular season in 76ers games to as only 1 of their last 14 games has seen the SU winner not also be the ATS winner. Look for the home team to get right back on track here and win this one in a blowout by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #572 Tuesday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets Money Line +175 vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:30 ET - The odds makers knew James Harden and Kyrie Irving were not expected to play when they opened up this line at a -2 for Bucks. That line is indicating a very tight game of course and it is never shocking to see a +2 underdog win outright. That said, now that the markets have said the odds makers are clueless about doing their job and have caused this line to rise all the way to a -5 on Milwaukee, I am jumping in on the other side with Brooklyn. However, on the basis the odds makers are indeed quite sharp, I am not even taking the points, I will grab the big money line - range of +175 as of 9 AM ET - with the Nets in this one. This one has value, home court edge, coaching edge, and a hungry Nets team ready to prove the naysayers wrong after what happened in Game 4 at Milwaukee once Irving got hurt. These are still professionals that surround the lone remaining star, Kevin Durant, and watch them step up and help produce a "shocking" win over the Bucks. Per the odds makers original line, that should not be a shock at all but it will be to the betting markets and the masses after this insane line movement. In contrarian fashion I am calling for the upset here. 10* BROOKLYN Money Line +175

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #562 Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:35 ET - I just do not see these teams again combining for an unusually high 71 free throw attempts again like they did in Game 3. I also do not expect the torrid shooting of the Sixers to continue on the road. It was very surprising that they did make 48% of their three pointers and 58% from the field overall Friday at Atlanta. The Hawks, now down 2-1 in this series, have to come out strong here but they have averaged only 106.5 points per game last two games. So, the point is, you have Atlanta buckling down a bit for a crucial Game 4 but also having struggled a bit to get big points. Look for a solid under here as, despite 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams resulting in an over, the odds makers have held firm in the mid-220s range with this one for a reason! The point is this game will surprise many by being a bit more of a grinder. 10* UNDER the total in Atlanta

Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #554 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets Money Line +140 vs Phoenix Suns @ 8:05 ET - I do not see the Nuggets being swept. No points needed as Denver avoids the embarrassment of a Game 4 loss on their home floor as that is no way to get swept out of the playoffs. The Nuggets actually had 14 more shots from the floor than the Suns did in Game 3 but lost the game by double digits because Phoenix shot very well and Denver struggled to make shots. From beyond the arc, the Nuggets shot about 12 percentage points less than the Suns and the same was true from the field overall. That said the play here is on the home team to win outright. Denver had won 4 of last 5 home games versus Suns prior to that loss. In fact, heading into this series, the Nuggets had won 9 off 11 SU overall versus Phoenix. Of course being without Jamal Murray is hurting them but they entered this series on a 7-3 SU run overall and, as hot as the Suns have been, Phoenix was just 4-4 SU last 8 road games prior to the Game 3 win Friday. Again, that victory was a fortunate one for the Suns in terms of much better shooting. Give them credit for the win of course but the Nuggets won some key hustle stat battles like offensive rebounds as an example and this team will not quit! 10* DENVER Money Line +140

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #551 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets @ 3 ET - After the horrific shooting in Game 3 there will be a turnaround in Game 4 for both teams. I know this series has been all unders so far but it does not make sense based on the pace of the games. That said, good pace again here plus much better shooting. I trust the Nets to bounce back and score much better here after the loss in Game 3. Also, the Bucks are known for shooting much better on their home floor and I fully expect that here after the unreal scoring result Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #541 Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz Money Line +175 @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:35 ET - The Clippers are at home and down 2-0 in this series and so automatically they must win this game, right? That is the common thinking of course but, as we all know from experience, common thinking is not what you want to have to make money long-term in sports betting and I see this spot as an excellent value spot for grabbing the Jazz. Note that Utah is on a 4-0 SU run on the road while the Clippers are on a 1-4 SU run in home games! Yet everyone will remember Los Angeles winning Game 7 of their series with Dallas in LA but forget they lost 4 straight home games preceding that. Of course this is why we get fantastic line value in this spot. Prior to that Game 7 win over the Mavericks, the road team in Clippers games had actually prevailed as the SU winner in 6 straight games and 9 of 11 games. How many times are you going to get a great team like Utah - on a 6-game winning streak and winners in 8 of 9 - at a +175 price? Exactly! I certainly respect the Clippers but feel the Jazz are the better team in this series and I look for them to continue to prove that with an upset win in Game 3 to take a stranglehold on this series as they shock the masses tonight. Note from June 4th to tonight this will be the 5th game for the Clippers while the Jazz enter this game having played only twice since their June 2nd series-clinching win over Memphis. The road team is also the team with the fresher legs in this one. 10* UTAH +175

Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns @ 10:05 ET - The Nuggets are known for being much tougher to play against when at home and they show a strong tendency to score much better when on their home floor. After back to back frustrating performances on offense on the road in this series, I fully expect Denver to bounce back with a strong effort here and put up big points. They will need it because the Suns have been on fire offensively and that is why the over is on a 10-2 run in Phoenix road games. Prior to Game 2 of this series staying under the total, games between these teams were on an 8-4 run to the over and I look for that trend to quickly resume tonight. The Nuggets respond on their home floor but the Suns continue their red hot scoring trend away from home. 10* OVER the total in Denver

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Money Line -115 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - With the Sixers available at a -1 -110 on the spread I am going to suggest laying an extra 5 cents and grabbing them on the money line at -115 in this one. I know Atlanta has a good home record but here is something interesting to note. The Hawks played in a much weaker division this season than Philadelphia did. Note that Philly played in a tough Atlantic Division but still went 10-2 in the division. Also, the 76ers went 13-2 against the weak Southeast Division. The Hawks record was helped by the fact they went 9-3 in their own division. Against the Atlantic Division, Atlanta had a losing record at 7-8. The point is that the value here because this game is at Atlanta and we can take Philly just to win the game is too much to pass up on in my opinion. I am going with the better team on the road to avoid falling into a 2-1 series deficit here. Big game and having an extra day off between games - these teams last played Tuesday - also favors the road team with Embiid getting extra rest for his knee. The big man is capable of dominating any game and has already produced huge numbers in this series and will come up big here in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA money line -115

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #522 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:30 ET - So far in this series, excluding 3 pointers, the Bucks have outscored the Nets by 19 points. That is crazy to think about, right? But it is true and it is even more crazy considering Brooklyn has been without James Harden. He is going to miss tonight's game too and I feel strongly that this is where it will catch up with the Nets. They are on the road facing an angry Milwaukee team and I expect a huge effort from the Bucks as Brooklyn's 3-point shooting finally settles back down from astronomical levels! In the regular season the Nets were only 20-16 SU in road games while the Bucks were 26-10 SU in home games. The home team has won and covered all 5 meetings between these teams this year and I look for that trend to continue tonight as the Bucks finally put forth a very strong effort and Brooklyn's ridiculously hot outside shooting finally cools. 10* MILWAUKEE

Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets Money Line +200 @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:30 ET - If you like Denver to cover in this game, and I definitely had this one circled after the Game 1 result, you may as well take a look at getting +200 on the money line. Why? Well, the ATS winner in the Nuggets last 10 games has also been the SU winner in all 10 games. In other words, the points have not mattered. In fact, dating back to May 1st, Denver has played 16 games and only 1 of the 16 was one in which the SU winner was not also the ATS winner. That was when the Nuggets won a game SU but lost ATS (they were favored by 6 and won by 5). Of course that is impossible to happen here as Denver is the dog so a SU win will be an ATS win. That said, why I am anticipating a SU win here? Well the Nuggets had won 5 of last 6 games played at Phoenix prior to Monday's loss. Also, Denver is 12-3 SU the last 15 times when off a SU loss. The Suns are 1-3 SU the last 4 times they have entered a game on a SU winning streak of 4 or more games. Phoenix is not going to shoot 54% from field again nor have a 17-5 edge in free throws either! Upset alert! 10* DENVER Money Line +200

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #504 Tuesday 8* Utah Jazz (-) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 10:05 ET - The Jazz have won 11 of 14 straight up and have a huge rest edge here. They have not played since June 2nd while the Clippers have played twice since then. Before those two wins for Los Angeles over Dallas to wrap up a 7-game series win, LA had lost 5 of 7 both SU and ATS. All 11 of Utah's wins in their 11-3 SU run have come by a margin of 7 or more points and I fully expect this one will too! Rest edge and home court edge will be huge and the Clippers could be fatigued in the thin air of Utah after that 7-game battle with the Mavericks took everything they had to advance. 8* UTAH

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Tuesday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers will respond off the Game 1 loss. The Sixers had won 10 in a row at home prior to that loss. 9 of the 10 wins came by 7 or more points. The Hawks made twice as many three pointers in the game as Atlanta knocked down 20 from beyond the arc while Philadelphia made just 10. That is a 30-point variance from downtown and yet the Hawks only won the game by 4 points even with that 30 point edge beyond the arc. You get my point. Sixers roll by double digits. 8* PHILADELPHIA

TNT Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #581 Monday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Nets are without James Harden but he went out in the first minute of Game One with a hamstring injury and yet Brooklyn still ended up building a huge lead and winning the game by 8 points. That said, the Bucks are in real trouble here, right? Actually I expect them to be able to make some solid adjustments now since they know Harden is out. Also the reason they lost Game One was they made only 6 of 30 from downtown while Brooklyn made 15 of 40 from beyond the arc. When you get outscored by 27 points from three point land you actually should lose the game by a lot more than 8 points. In other words, there were some things to like in the Game One performance for Milwaukee. The Bucks were the better rebounding time and did a better job of getting to the free throw line than did the Nets. That said, I will take the road team in anticipation of a big bounce back win here in Game Two. 10* MILWAUKEE

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #573 Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 3:35 ET - Too much line value to pass up on here in my opinion. The road team not only has covered all 6 games in this series they have won each game outright. That said, grabbing the Mavericks on the money line here is in a 6-0 / 100% perfect SU situation. But we can add insurance to our play by grabbing the points being offered with Dallas. The Mavs are currently a 6.5 dog in this one as of early game day morning and that is a big value. 3 of the 6 games in this series have been decided by single digit margins - an average of 6 points per game - and this should be another tight one here. I do expect the road team trend to continue but will grab the points as added insurance with this one. 10* DALLAS +6.5

Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks Money Line +160 @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The three games this season between these teams were all close games but having the points on your side did no good. The one time the dog won they won outright. The two times the favorite won they covered the small spread. That said, I like Milwaukee here and I will take them on the money line given the above. Keep in mind, the Bucks are the much more rested team here as they swept the Heat in the first round. Milwaukee has won 12 of last 14 games overall dating back to the regular season and that includes a 2-0 against the Nets in early May. I realize those games were at Milwaukee and that Brooklyn's Big Three is now healthy. However, the Bucks match up very well with the Nets and are offering a lot of line value here. I like looking for upsets in Game One of a series especially with a high quality team like the Bucks that is still very hungry after getting knocked out of the post-season last year and missing their shot to try to win it all. 10* MILWAUKEE Money Line +160

Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #558 Friday Top Play Dallas Mavericks Money Line +127 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 9:05 ET - The road team is 5-0 in this series but I see that trend ending tonight as the Mavericks end the Clippers season. Last year in August in the post-season bubble, the Clippers entered a Game 6 with the Mavericks as the designated home team. Los Angeles got the win and ended their season. Now Dallas gets playoff payback for that the very next season and returns the favor with a Game 6 win tonight. The Mavericks are off a win in Game 5 and they have not had a standalone win since mid-April. In other words, when Dallas enters a game on a winning "streak" of 1 game they have won the next game each of the last 5 times and that includes when they won Game 2 of this series at LA after also beating the Clippers there in Game 1. Los Angeles enters this game on a 5-11 ATS run. Also, LA is on a 6-9 SU run. The Mavericks are the hotter team with runs of 12-5 SU and 8-5 ATS. No points needed here as each of the last ten games between these teams have been decided by 5 or more points. That said, rather than grabbing the 2.5 points here, the better value play is the money line. 10* DALLAS +127

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:35 ET - Looking at this series and looking at Anthony Davis, you can see how there is a clear relationship. Davis had a sub-par game one and the Suns won that game. Angry and motivated, Davis and the Lakers bounced back with big performances in each of the next two games. Then, still dealing with some lingering injury issues Davis was not the same guy in Game 4 and then got another injury - groin - that knocked him out of the game. However, even before the new injury, you could see Davis was not the same guy. Why does this matter? Well, the Suns went on to win Game 4 after he exited and, again, he was not himself for the 1/2 game worth of minutes he was out there. Then, without him in Game 5, the Lakers got blasted. Now, even if he comes back in Game 6, Davis is dealing with multiple injury issues. That said, I see the Lakers as "without Davis" no matter what in this game. He was not the same player in Game 4 even before he got hurt. He was playing hurt already. Now dealing with a multiple-injury situation, Davis will not be capable of a dominating performance here and, as we have seen throughout this season, Davis is the key to this team NOT LeBron James! With all of the above said, I expect the Suns to take advantage of this situation and end this series tonight. I will grab the bucket just in case they fall just short but I do expect an outright win here. 10* PHOENIX +2

Money Line Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #532 Wednesday 10* Top Play New York Knicks Money Line -115 vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The home team is 3-0 SU last 3 games in this series. Long-term it is a 5-1 SU run for the home team in match-ups between these teams. The Knicks lost both games at Atlanta but, prior to that, New York had won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams. I like the fact that the big difference in the last two games was the Hawks making more threes than the Knicks. With this game back in New York, the Knicks are likely to again even up that part of the equation. That said, better three point shooting from New York and rock solid defense from the hosts in an elimination game setting should lead to a comfortable home win in this one. The Knicks are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these teams. 10* NEW YORK KNICKS -115

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Just too many points in my opinion. When you look at the box score from Game 4 of this series you see that the Nets made a ridiculously high percentage of 3-pointers and also just a ridiculously high percentage of shots overall. The Celtics actually had more field goal attempts and free throw attempts in the game and yet ended up on the wrong end of a blowout loss. I am not saying that Boston will not again lose this game but I am saying that they will not lose it by a double digit margin. We are currently getting 12.5 points in this one and I expect the Celtics, playing for their season here, to stay within single digits against Brooklyn. I am aware of the injury situation for Boston and that this is not the same Celtics team we have seen in recent playoff years but this is still too many points in my opinion and I just do not see the road dog being put down here without a helluva fight. Grab the big points. 10* BOSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #512 Monday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - The markets are on Philly in this one so waiting to game day morning paid off some in terms of additional line value here as this one is now up to an 8.5 and I am expecting the Wizards to play a strong game. You know Washington does not want to get swept out of the playoffs by losing this one on their home floor. Of course being motivated is not reason enough to win a game but I expect a hard-fought battle here and at least a cover in this one. Washington actually did find a way to cover Game 1 of this series and in the past two games they have combined for 13 more shot attempts to the Sixers. How did they lose both so badly? Well, the Wizards are a ridiculous 10 of 57 from three point land the past two games while the 76ers are an equally ridiculous (the other way) 26 of 54 from three point land. Neither one of these statistical variances is likely to continue into a third straight game and that means value here with the big dog as I expect the gap of the last two games between these two teams to be closed in a big way. The home dog will not go down without a very strong effort and I see that leading to at least a cover in this one! 10* WASHINGTON +8.5

Western Conference Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - I have heard that Anthony Davis will play no matter what but could his sprained knee limit him a little bit here? Either way, the fact is the Suns are going to come out strong here after losing back to back games. Phoenix needs to be stronger on the boards and they know they can ill afford falling into a 3-1 hole in this series so I look for the Suns to play their best game of the series thus far. Maybe that still does not avoid the 3-1 series deficit but it should at least get us the cash here as they stay inside the number on this one. There were 3 times in the regular season in which the Suns entered a game off consecutive losses in which at least one of the losses was a road defeat. In all 3 instances, Phoenix won that game and I am expecting that record to reach a perfect 4-0 today but will grab the points as added insurance in this one. The Lakers are off back to back covers but this was on the heels of a 4-13 ATS stretch. It has been a very long time since Los Angeles has covered 3 straight and I do not expect that to change here either as LA falls short of the cover in this one. Look for the Suns to be very active defensively and extra aggressive on the boards in this one and I am expecting them to play a much more complete game after falling short in back to back games. 10* PHOENIX

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #575 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - Russell Westbrook (questionable) or not, I do not expect the Wizards to again shoot 2 of 22 from three point land in this one! Washington will be much better in the offensive end at home but they can not stop Philadelphia. The 76ers have averaged 128 points per game in their last 4 against the Wizards. However, it is the wounded dog that bites the hardest (as the saying goes) and I fully expect Washington to hang around in this game which means they will have to score plenty of points to do so. The over was 3-0 in the Sixers last 3 games prior to the Game 2 match-up between these teams staying under the total. Also, the Wizards have scored an average of 130 points per game in their last 3 home games. Look for a very entertaining match-up in this one with plenty of points and that is whether Westbrook plays or not as Philly is known as being a team whose defense often does not "travel well"! 10* OVER the total in Washington

1st Round Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The Hawks are sure to respond at home off an ugly loss at New York in Game Two. However, New York has scored 55 points and 57 points, respectively, in the 2nd half of each of the first two games. So the Knicks might surprise and put up quite a fight in the 2nd half here but I expect the revenge-minded Hawks to put up a ton of points on their home floor. Atlanta has won 11 straight home games and has scored an average of 120 points per game in those 11 consecutive victories! The Knicks are known for solid defense and holding game scores down but I still feel that the 211 range this total is posted in will prove to be far too low. New York's last 6 meetings with Atlanta, prior to Game Two staying under the total, had produced 5 overs and just 1 under. Look for this high-scoring trend to resume here as the Hawks respond well at home but have trouble putting the Knicks away in the 2nd half. The spread in the range of a -4 seems about right given the way I handicap this game but I feel this total will prove to be far too low. The 6 preceding meetings, including 1 under in the bunch all totaled 212 or more and the last 5 regular season meetings had average halftime point totals of 124. With this being the post-season the totals have been adjusted down but I know how the Hawks want to play this game on their home floor and we should get a solid over here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #552 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:35 ET - The Heat got blasted on Monday by 32 points but were outscored by 42 points from three point land! It was just "one of those games" where the Bucks were making everything and the Heat were cold from beyond the arc. Miami actually had 35 free throw attempts compared to just 20 for Milwaukee. The Heat will be much better here after dropping the first two games of this series in Wisconsin. Miami lost Game One by only a 2-point margin. Now they are a home dog of a bucket here in a must win game. I like the Heat to get back on track in a big way here. Miami had covered 13 of 17 before the ugly loss in Game 2. Also, the Bucks had failed to cover 7 of 8 before getting that blowout win. Payback time for the Heat as they get back into the series with a key win Thursday. 10* MIAMI

1st round Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #542 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - In game one, the Wizards shot 56% from the field and 40% from three point land so your next question would be, okay how many points did Washington win by? Exactly...and yet the Wizards did not even win the game and barely covered as they lost by 7 points to stay just inside the number. The point of all this? Washington is in huge trouble if they can shoot like that and yet still not win the game. The Wizards had the better shooting numbers both inside and outside the 3-point line and yet still lost the game by nearly a double digit margin. That said, with the Sixers fully aware they need to D up even stronger, Philly wins this game by more than a dozen points in my opinion. The extra rest is another edge for the 76ers here as it is a key for Embiid to stay as healthy as possible and they are at home again and game one was on Sunday so two full off days in between. This is a big edge for Philly. Ride the home team to a cover here as the home team in 76ers games was on a 12-3 ATS run prior to their non-covering home win Sunday. That 80% run makes sense as Philly is known for struggling on the road but dominating as a host. Look for home domination in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Yes the Nets covered Game 1 but the Celtics actually led by 6 points at the half. The teams ended up taking an equal amount of shots but poor overall shooting for Boston cost them the game and the cover. I expect Brooklyn will shoot better from three point land here and fully understand they are do for a bounce back in that regard. However, the Nets are going to see some adjustments from the Celtics who are known for making good game to game adjustments. I know it has not been the same Boston team we have seen in the past but they are well-coached and will be ready to go here and I simply do not see them losing this game by a double digit margin. I know Brooklyn has been hot but the Celtics had covered 3 straight prior to that loss and I feel the Nets are over-priced here. Market is favoring the home favorite and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going the other way! 10* BOSTON

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - With Game One staying under the total by a good margin, we have seen a line move for Game Two. The result is excellent line value with the over because the pace was absolutely there for an over in Game One. The problems included the Heat making just 16 of 49 shots inside the the arc, the Bucks making just 5 of 31 shots from outside the arc, and Milwaukee making just 60% of their free throws. All of these are very unusual statistics and, with a return to normalcy in Game Two, look for this game to feature enough scoring to go over a number that has been adjusted downward for this one! Entering that game Miami road games were on an 8-2 run to the over. Look for that trending to resume in this one! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Pacific Div Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #514 Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - Granted they would have another chance to make the post-season by facing Memphis but that does not change the fact the Lakers were fortunate to get past the Warriors in their play-in match-up. LA barely beat Golden State and I am well aware that the Lakers now have a winning streak going but 4 of their last 6 wins in the streak were against teams that did not end up making the playoffs. Now Los Angeles faces a major challenge here. Yes they beat Phoenix earlier this month but the Suns had won the prior two meetings this season by double digits. Also, this match-up is in Phoenix where the Suns went 27-9. This line has dropped from a 3 to a 2.5 and I feel we have fantastic line value here with the small home favorite. The Suns had a week off to rest up for this game and are healthy. With the Lakers now having Anthony Davis and James back on the floor again they are getting a lot of love from the betting markets but this is a very strong Suns team that has the rest edge and is on their home floor. Lay the small number. 10* PHOENIX

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #509 Saturday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 4:35 ET - The Mavericks lost their regular season finale but how important was that game? Exactly! That said, it is playoff time now and Dallas entered that final game having won 12 of 15 games! The Mavs are out for revenge here from last year's playoff ouster at the hands of the Clippers. You can expect a very strong effort here as a result. I like the fact that Los Angeles is on a 3-8 ATS skid and I feel they are overvalued here with the line move from 4.5 now up to a 5.5 as of early game day morning. The Mavericks won 2 of the 3 meetings between these teams in the regular season and have plenty of confidence entering this post-season rematch. That makes for a very dangerous dog here. Give me the points! 10* DALLAS

Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #579 Friday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies +175 @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Grizzlies lost at Golden State Sunday but actually had 9 more shot attempts from the field. So what happened? Memphis made just 6 of 25 three pointers while the Warriors made 15 of 39 three pointers. Considering GS outscored the Grizz by 27 points from beyond the arc, it is a minor miracle that the game was decided by "only" a dozen points. That said, I feel we have some good value with the underdog here and feel that we are finally going to see an outright upset in this play-in tourney. So far the favorite has won every single game SU and though not all were ATS wins and I can not believe we will go all the way through this play-in tourney without a single upset. Look for the better defensive team (at least the team playing better defense of late for sure) in this match-up to get the outright win! Look for the Grizzlies team to take advantage of a Warriors team that let one slip away against the Lakers Wednesday night. Memphis off a momentum-boosting win over the Spurs that was a game featuring long stretches of dominance. The Grizzlies off a win while Golden State off a missed opportunity versus Los Angeles sets this one up well for an upset as the Warriors are feeling all the pressure here. 10* MEMPHIS Money Line +175

Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #575 Thursday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers Money Line +135 @ Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - Incredibly all 4 hosts have won each of the play-in games SU even though the lines were rather small spreads on all games. I see that ending here. The Pacers looked great against the Hornets Tuesday and that helps them bring a ton of confidence and swagger into this game. The fact Washington won all 3 games in the regular season against Indiana actually only makes me like this one even more. It is a contrarian play all the way but, think about what the public will likely be doing here. They see all the home teams winning, they see the Wizards 3-0 against the Pacers this season, they see a small home favorite, etc. That said, not only do I want the dog here...I am taking them for the outright upset. No points needed. 10* INDIANA +135

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #567 Wednesday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:30 ET - Good news for Spurs fans in this one! The game is AT Memphis! While that may seem like a facetious statement, the fact is that San Antonio went just 14-22 in home games this season and have proven to be a much better road team this season. More good news for Spurs fans is that the 3 games between these teams this season were not only ALL WON by the road team, the average margin of victory was 20 points per game! Not necessarily expecting a road rout here but I do expect the road team to find a way to get the outright win and, if they do fall short it should be by the slimmest of margins. That said, grabbing the points with the road dog in this one is the value play in my opinion as an outright upset certainly is possible, if not probable! The Grizzlies enter the post-season stumbling with a 4-9 ATS run! The Spurs went 23-13 ATS on the road this season. 10* SAN ANTONIO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #559 Tuesday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets +3 @ Indiana Pacers @ 6:40 ET - The Pacers wrapped up the season on a 7-0 ATS run while the Hornets wrapped up the season on an 0-5 SU run. That said, it looks awful easy to take Indiana -3 at home and fade Charlotte here does it not? Exactly! This is precisely why, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of this one! Give me the Charlotte team that no one else wants. However, this is certainly not a play without some strong reasoning behind it. For one thing, the Hornets won the last meetings with the Pacers this season by an average margin of 10 points per game and they dominated with a 20-10 turnover margin edge in the most recent meeting. For another thing, out of all 20 teams that either made the playoffs already or are in this play-in tournament, Indiana has the worst home record. In fact, the only other team even close to their 13-23 SU futility as a host is the Spurs out west. All other 18 teams have at least a .500 record at home on the season. So, the point is, some home court edge is baked into this line but the Pacers do not even deserve it. If I can take a team +3 against a team that is 13-23 at home plus that appears to have some match-up issues when facing this opponent, I will take that team every single time! Grab the points. 10* CHARLOTTE

Contrarian Crusher NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets @ 7:10 ET - The Hawks likely will be playing a meaningless game when this tips off. If the Knicks, favored by double digits, beat the Celtics in early action then New York locks up the #4 seed. That means Atlanta would be locked into the #5 seed. As for the Rockets, they had a bad season and so you are simply not going to see much defense from either team here given the situation. That said, we should see a ton of points in this on as I like the recent trending of Houston. They are off a SU win plus are on a red hot ATS run to close out the season and they have been doing it with offense, not defense. That is why the over is on a perfect 6-0 run in Rockets games. Also, the O/U is a white hot 9-1 in Houston's last 10 road games. More of the same here as the Hawks are likely to empty the bench in this one and I expect a lot of points as a result. This game simply highly likely to be played casually with a lot of open looks at the basket and plenty of run and gun looking for quick scoring chances. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #527 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Chicago Bulls @ 1:10 ET - This game could be all about the "show" as the Nets can no longer win the top seed in the East as Philly locked that up yesterday but Brooklyn will have their Big 3 on the floor all at the same time in a rarity this season. With Harden, Durant, and Irving all available there should be plenty of points in this one. The Bulls are simply playing out the string on a disappointing season and will not put up much resistance here. At the same time, the Nets are unlikely to play intense defense as they save that for the playoffs. All that said though, Brooklyn is a double digit favorite here with good reason and I expect this one to turn into a high-scoring shootout. There is a reason this total is set so high even though recent match-ups between these teams have trended under and even though both these teams enter this game having been trending under in recent weeks. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian and that continues here as this game should get nuts with the points and surprise a lot of people. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:10 ET - The Wizards are a high-scoring team coming off an under which was preceded by 6 straight overs and, overall, a run of 9-2 to the over. I know Cleveland trends toward lower-scoring games but Washington is going to dictate the pace and flow of this game on their home floor. Also, the Cavaliers had averaged 112 points per game in 3 preceding meetings with Wizards prior to a poor 2nd half of scoring leading to their most recent meeting staying under the total. Washington hasn't exactly been playing stellar defense of late and their biggest concern appeared to be getting Russell Westbrook his triple-double record rather than winning games. In any event, Washington does still need one more win to lock up a spot in the post-season and I am sure they will look to "run and gun" their way to victory in this one. That means more points than usual from a short-handed Cleveland team simply playing out the string in a disappointing season. That means very little defensive intensity in this one and the Wizards will be happy to run up the score on the way to a playoff-clinching victory as it would cement them having a spot in the upcoming play-in tournament. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #567 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:40 ET - Neither team shot well in Orlando's loss at Milwaukee Tuesday but the game still totaled 216 points. This followed a game in which the Magic allowed 128 points but the game stayed under the total. This was on the heels of a 12-2 run to the over in Orlando's games. One of the few unders in that stretch was a loss at Atlanta that was on pace for an over as of halftime but both teams shot poorly overall for the game. This ended a streak of 3 straight overs in this series and I fully expect the high-scoring ways to resume today. The Hawks are trying to secure the #4 spot in the East but they sure as hell are not playing defense in hopes of doing so. Now these tired defensive legs are playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in 4 days and Atlanta has allowed 124.3 points per game last 3 games. The Magic have allowed 124 points per game last 4 games. Orlando has nothing to play for other than pride and the fast pace played at Milwaukee is very likely to be repeated here. Look for plenty of points as a result as both teams have been giving up a ton of points as of late. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #552 Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - The Wizards will again be without leading scorer Bradley Beal. The Hawks, after allowing Washington back in the game with a horrific 4th quarter performance, will be much better defensively in this game in my opinion. Speaking of defense, that is something Washington does not believe in. All kidding aside, the Wizards have indeed allowed - NOT including OT points - 124 points or more in 5 of last 6 games. In fact, Washington has allowed 127.5 points per game in those 6 games and, again, that is taking OT points out of the equation! As for the Hawks, normally they have been pretty solid defensively and, keep in mind, this is an Atlanta team that has won 8 straight home games. By the way, the 1st 7 wins in that 8-game streak all were by a margin of 7 or more points. Also, the Hawks are off back to back high scoring games but this followed Atlanta allowing an average of only 109.3 points over an 8 game stretch. Certainly the Hawks have proven much more capable of playing some respectable defense in comparison with the Wizards. Now, after back to back high-scoring thrillers, I look for the home team to absolutely turn things up a notch on the defensive end in this one and get a big blowout home win as a result. 10* ATLANTA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Denver Nuggets @ 7 ET - The over is 4-1 in last 5 meetings between these teams. Denver has scored at least 110 points in 8 of last 9 games. The Nuggets have averaged 118 points in those 8 games. The Hornets have scored 107 points or more in 7 of last 10 games. Overall, Charlotte has averaged 110 points per game in these 10 games. Given the history between these teams and the fact this is a non-conference match-up and the recent high-scoring trending for each team, this total is set too low. Grab the value on the high side of this one! 10* OVER the total in Charlotte

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #520 Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:40 ET - I know both these teams have been trending over of late but Cleveland has averaged only 97 points the last 3 games. Also, though the over has cashed in 4 of last 9 meetings and 2 of last 3 the two most recent totals averaged just 221 points and neither would have gone over given the current total (231) posted on this game. In other words, the O/U trend in this series could easily be 7 unders and 2 overs the last 9 games. Either way, with Indiana having a much tougher game (Philly) on deck for tomorrow night, I could easily see the Pacers taking a bit of an "off night" for their recent torrid scoring pace. That said, good value here with a very high total set on this game when you consider the recent low point totals produced by the Cavaliers on offense. The Pacers are only about a 7 point favorite here for a reason and the Cavs just do not score a whole lot. If the oddsmakers are right about this spread, that would mean Cleveland would have to score 112 for this game to go over the total. The Cavaliers have been held to 110 points or less in 14 of last 16 games! 10* UNDER the total in Cleveland

NBA TV Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #507 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:10 ET - The Pelicans showed a lot of heart and got big performances from the bench in their 2-point loss at Philly Friday. New Orleans was without Williamson, Ingram, and Adams in that game. Only Adams might be back tonight but, even if he does not play, I like the Pelicans a lot here. New Orleans proved against the 76ers that they are not going down without a fight as they work hard to keep their playoff hopes alive. I was particularly impressed with their performance in the hustle stats like rebounding, steals, and blocked shots. Look for the Pelicans, also seeking revenge for a home loss to Charlotte earlier this season, to give the Hornets all they can handle here. I am grabbing the points but expecting the outright upset. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #569 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers could rest some players here, particularly Joel Embiid, coming off last night's game. However, keep in mind, people always seem to underestimate the defensive value of a player like that. So the total drops in cases like this but yet the weakened defense is an issue. Last night Philadelphia and New Orleans had a high-scoring game through early 4th quarter but then the game just died at that point and stayed under the total. Why? Because it ended up being a tight game late with key possessions featuring plenty of defense during the stretch run of the 4th quarter. I just do not see this game playing out that way. 7 of the last 8 meetings between the Pistons and 76ers have resulted in an over and I do not expect much defense in this one. Philly expended a lot of energy on the defensive end and now hosts a Detroit team that is simply playing out the string on the season. In other words, what do they care about defense? Exactly! So even though the Pistons come in on off a couple of unders and overall trending under in recent weeks, the play here is the over as these teams make it 8 overs in the last 9 meetings. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:10 ET - The 76ers, not including OT points of course, have allowed just 99 points per game during their current 6-game winning streak. Philadelphia is favored by 9 here. A 108-99 final would fall 20 points below the current number posted on this game. Certainly I am not saying it will necessarily be that low-scoring but the Pelicans do have some injury issues here and Philly wants revenge for losing the 1st meeting between these teams this season. By the way, that game totaled only 195 points. The 76ers have lowly Pistons on deck for tomorrow so they will be fully focused on the defensive end in this one and the Pelicans have another non-conference match-up on deck for Sunday so New Orleans should bring a fully focused effort on the defensive end for this one as well. The Pelicans have stayed under in 6 of last 7 games and the only over in that stretch was an OT game. It did go over in regulation but not by much and the point is that the Pelicans recent averages were skewed a bit by the one outlier game last 7 games. The other 6 games saw New Orleans allow an average of 108 points and score 111 points on average. That is a 219 average and, again, well below the posted total on this game. 10* UNDER the total in Philadelphia

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - The O/U is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times these teams have met at Charlotte. The Bulls have not been scoring well recently but they should get a big boost tonight. It will be the first time in a long time that both Lavine and Vucevic will be on the floor together. They are both expected to play tonight and you will see a different Chicago team tonight than you have seen in quite some time. Though I expect this to result in the Bulls scoring much better than they have been, I also expect the Hornets to score well. Charlotte has averaged 111 points per game last 6 home games. Bulls are favored here by a bucket or so for a reason. In other words, based on the above, you can why this game is likely to get into the mid-220s and yet we are dealing with a total in the 217 range as an opener. I will grab the value for a top play. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #515 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The Magic are 14-4 to the over last 18 games. The Celtics are 5-0 to the over last 5 games. The most recent match-up between these teams resulted in an under but this followed a run of 3 straight overs in meetings between Orlando and Boston. Not only are the Celtics 5-0 to the over last 5 games, the Magic are 5-0 to the over last 5 home games. I am going to test these two perfect trends here and look for a very high-scoring game in this one as Orlando does tend to shoot the 3-ball much better when at home. The Celtics, not including OT, have averaged 120.5 points per game last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in Orlando

TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Tuesday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:40 ET - Chance at immediate revenge for Brooklyn after losing a tight one at Milwaukee on Sunday. The Nets did outrebound the Bucks in that game but were done in by turnovers. Also, the Bucks were simply the better shooting team that night and, even with all that, the Nets still lost the game by just a very slim margin. I expect the Nets to shoot better tonight and get payback. Brooklyn is 5-1 SU this season when they enter a game off back to back losses. The Nets were on a 29-8 run prior to now suffering back to back defeats. They will respond here. The Bucks had lost 10 of 19 prior to now coming up with back to back wins. 10* BROOKLYN

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #565 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - There are two teams that have already been eliminated from post-season contention in the Eastern Conference and here they are matched up against each other. The result? Very little defense because, seriously, who cares about this game? It should be played very freely and openly and the odds makers know this. They opened up this total higher than the closing line of the total in the first two match-ups. Both those games stayed under the total by a double digit margin. That said, why would this game have a higher total than those two games given the results of those games? Exactly! The point is that the odds maker knows the same thing we know here. There should not be a lot of defensive intensity in this one. By the way, the over is 13-4 in Orlando's last 17 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Sunday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:40 ET - The Nets are off a loss but it was without Kevin Durant as he was rested. He'll be back for this one and Brooklyn is 9-0 SU the last 9 times when off a loss and here we can grab them without laying any points so I am testing this 9-0 situation. I know Giannis will be back for the Bucks here too but how healthy will he be? Also, the Nets won the first meeting and I know Harden played in that one and he is out for this one but Irving did not play in that one and he is back for this one. Plus Brooklyn won that game despite a 17-5 turnover deficit. That will not happen again with Irving on the floor in my opinion. Also, the Nets were strong on the glass in that one and I look for more of the same here. Keep in mind the Bucks are just 10-10 SU last 20 games. Couple that with the fact that Brooklyn has been so strong off a loss and you have the ideal set-up here. Many will be enticed to take the Bucks here as Milwaukee is known for being so strong at home but, there is plenty of reason as to why this game is priced this way and I am going contrarian and grabbing the Nets in this one as they get it done on the road. 10* BROOKLYN

Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I use this theory a lot. The theory I am talking about is that when a lot of players are out for teams the betting markets automatically adjust for the "points per game" that are out of the lineup when the reality is that defense, rebounding, and flow of the game is impacted too. A lot of times teams become a little disorganized and you see less structure and more of just going up an down the floor quickly and trying to get quick shots with good looks at the basket. That is what I expect to see here. I know the first meeting stayed under the total but that was largely because of one horrific quarter in terms of scoring. In EACH of the other 3 quarters the teams combined to put up least 52 points and average in the upper 50s per quarter. That said, also consider the lack of motivation for the Pistons to play much defense here. The season is almost over and it has been a bad one for Detroit so why would they aggressively D up here? Exactly! The Pistons have allowed 119 points per game last 8 road games. The Hornets have allowed an average of 111 points per game last 8 games overall. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte

Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #513 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - The Hawks are off back to back blowout losses and the Sixers are off back to back blowout wins with the latter of the two coming on Wednesday when Atlanta got destroyed as a 9.5 point dog at Philadelphia. This line is the same as the line was Wednesday even though the 76ers won the game by 44 points. The odds makers must not know what they are doing, right? Of course that is not the case! The fact is that the Hawks should be healthier for this game and could even have Trae Young back on the floor which would be huge for them. Either way, with Atlanta having been embarrassed in two straight games and the Sixers rolling to back to back blowout wins, this is the perfect spot to bank on an underdog response and a favorite to fade. It is just natural for the motivation to be much higher for the Hawks here and as long as they stay within single digits, we cash our ticket. I fully expect that here. 10* ATLANTA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:10 ET - Each team has some injury question marks heading into this one but I feel that has given us  solid line value heading into this one. The total has simply been set low to adjust for the injuries but both Porzingis and Richardson for Dallas have missed each of the last 3 games but were upgraded from doubtful to questionable for this one. Also, even without those guys, the Mavericks have averaged 116 points per game last 3 games. The Pistons Josh Jackson is not on the injury report for this one after missing Monday's game with an illness and so I am expecting him back for this one. Detroit has some extra confidence after getting the win over Sacramento on Monday. The Pistons have covered 6 of their last 9 games so, even though their season has been miserable, Detroit has been competitive recently. That also makes me like the over even more here and the Pistons have scored an average of 110 points last 13 games. Dallas is about an 8 point favorite here and you see the two scoring averages I mentioned above. 117 to 109 would sound about right for this game if the odds makers are right about the spread. Note that this final score would put the total double digits above what the odds makers have posted. In other words, line value! 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:05 ET - When you think of the Hawks you probably think of Trae Young. Atlanta's star point guard is absolutely the guy that makes this team go. That said, with Young out with an ankle injury, the Hawks are currently a shell of the team they normally are. Atlanta is off a 14-point loss at Detroit and now faces a much tougher test with this game at Philadelphia. Not only are the 76ers known for a being one of the best teams in the league when at home, they play this game with revenge for a loss by double digits at Atlanta earlier this season. The Sixers have been angry after some recent sub-par performances but are getting healthier again as evidenced by their 120-91 blowout win over the Thunder on Monday. They will continue to take out their frustration of some recent losses by pulverizing the next team in their path as well. This is the first of back to backs between these teams as they meet again on Friday so there is no lookahead here. The 76ers will be fully focused here as a result and that is bad news for a Hawks team that will really miss Trae Young in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:10 ET - Neither of these teams has been playing particularly well on the defensive end to say the least. Indiana, not including OT points of course, has allowed an average of 119 points per game last 13 games. Portland has allowed an average of 115 points per game last 11 games. That only puts this game right around the number of 234 for the point total but that would be if this was an "average" game but I do not expect that to be the case here. This is a non-conference match-up which can bring a decrease in defensive intensity and both teams have proven, especially in recent games, they are happy to play at a faster pace. Look for a up tempo game here with both teams willing to employ the "run and gun" approach in this one. Both teams shot uncharacteristically poor from 3-point land in the first meeting and it stayed well under the total. That game total was 228 and it stayed under by 30 points as it totaled only 198. Yet here we have a total posted a half-dozen points higher even though the first game missed going over the total by a mile. What does that tell you? Exactly! The odds makers are quite sharp...but we are too! 10* OVER the total in Indiana

Northwest Div Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Monday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:10 ET - The loss of Donovan Mitchell to an ankle injury is, no doubt, a big one for the Jazz. However, after they lost their first game without him to the Lakers (tough spot as was 2nd game of B2B) they got to face LA again in their next game and blasted them by double digits. Then their next game was a blowout win at Houston in which they destroyed the Rockets by 23 points. Now, after a home loss to the Timberwolves Saturday, the Jazz get a shot at immediate revenge with this game at Minnesota tonight. I am expecting a massive win here as they are determined to get payback and have already proven they can win by big margins against bad teams even when they are without Mitchell. The clincher for me is this nice little nugget about the Wolves. The last 7 times Minnesota entered a game off a SU win, the Timberwolves have gone 0-7 ATS! Blowout time! 10* UTAH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #522 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 4:10 ET - This game starts at 1 pm local time and sometimes you see some poor shooting in earlier start times particularly on a weekend. What I like the most about this situation is this total has just kept climbing and climbing in match-ups between these teams this season. I realize that the over is 3-0 last 3 meetings but now this total was posted at a 235.5 and it has simply gone too far in my opinion. Yes, these teams totaled 258 on Friday but I consider that to be an aberration. Note that Portland's 8 games preceding that one all totaled 225 points or less. 8 straight games with 225 points or less and now we are seeing a total posted on this game that is 10 points higher than that. I realize that the Grizzlies have been scoring a lot of points of late but the Trail Blazers will be ready to play some better defense here after allowing Memphis to shoot 53% from the field in a home loss for Portland on Friday. It is a revenge game for the Blazers and while I do not trust them to get the win because they have lost 4 straight games and 8 of 10, I do expect some better play on the defensive end in this one. Good value here on a total that has simply gone too far. 10* UNDER the total in Portland

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors @ 1:10 ET - Each of the first two meetings between these teams this season have gone under the the total and that is keeping this total lower than it should be. Also, this total has made a downward move already which is offering us additional value. The O/U opened up at a 217.5 and is now down to a 215 as of early gameday morning. The last meeting was a 102-96 low-scoring loss for Toronto. However, the Raptors enter this game loaded with confidence courtesy of a 4-game winning streak which has seen them average 114 points per game! Speaking of confidence and winning streaks, New York has won 8 straight games and, not including OT points, has averaged 112.4 points per game during this winning streak. As you can see, if these teams just hit their recent averages you are looking at this game landing the 225 to 230 range and we are working with a total much lower than that. Also, small line on this game which means it is expected to be a tight finish which means we could some late scramble points - a lot of late fouling from the losing team followed by jacking up quick threes to try and close the gap. I do not think we'll need that but that also helps the value aspect of this play should it come down to that. The Raptors are 5-1 to the over the last 6 times they have been a dog and the Knicks are on a 5-1 run to the over their last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in New York

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #571 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards @ 8:10 ET - The Wizards have won 6 in a row and the Thunder have lost 12 in a row so, of course, this match-up caught my attention. However, just like I can't trust Oklahoma City to stay within 9 points here I also can't trust Washington to win by double digits on the road. Indeed a big number hung on this one by the odds makers in terms of the spread. What I do like here is the over because you have the stronger and hotter team on the road and you know they should score like crazy here and, at the same time, the home team should "get theirs" as they play loose and relaxed at home. Note that the Thunder are allowing 123 points per game during their losing streak. The Wizards are allowing 116 points per game last 10 road games. I could easily see this game getting to the 240 range and it is priced in the 230 range. Keep in mind, Washington has averaged 120.5 points during their current win streak and now take on a team not playing solid defense to say the least. Quite a track meet likely here. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #556 Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:10 ET - The Suns barely got by at Philadelphia and the 76ers were without two starters as Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris missed that game. Now Phoenix takes on a Celtics team that also has some injury issues but is expected to have both Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart back for this game. Also, it is the 2nd game of a back to back for Phoenix and the Suns are on a 1-3 ATS run in this situation. Additionally, the Celtics are in a great spot as they have had two days off after a home loss to Chicago. Look for Boston to have plenty of energy here. The Celtics are rested and ready to avenge their loss at Phoenix two months ago and also get back on track after losing to the Bulls. I am aware that Jaylen Brown is likely to miss this game but having Walker and Smart back will be big for this team and they are getting too many points at home in this one in my opinion. Lets take advantage and grab the value. The Celtics had won 6 in a row before their home loss Monday and I look for them to get right back on track here but will grab the points as added insurance in the event they fall just short of the outright win. 10* BOSTON

Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:10 ET - This line is right around a pick'em and so we don't have to worry about a point spread. At the time of this posting the line is a +1 on the Sixers. Philadelphia enters this game off a home loss to the Warriors. That is noteworthy for multiple reasons. One is that Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris did not play but one, or both, should be back for tonight's game. But is also noteworthy because each of the last 7 times the 76ers have been at home and coming off a loss, they have gone 7-0 / 100% PERFECT straight-up. Certainly very strong odds as Philly is known for being very strong on their home floor and they have been particularly strong when off a loss! Look for this one to make it 8 in a row as they catch the Suns off another showdown against a top Eastern team and that was a one point win for Phoenix at Milwaukee. Also note that the Suns are 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they have entered a game off an ATS cover. So we have double 7-0 PERFECTION trends working in our favor here. I also like the fact that Philly lost at Phoenix earlier this season and also lost last season's home match-up with the Suns played in August with no fans. All signs pointing to a big home win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 10* OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:30 ET - This is typical as a few injury issues in this one and so the first move on the total is from 221 to as low as 218.5 and what makes me laugh about this is that you always see this even for lesser known players. The public just assumes "oh they are missing this guy averaging 10 points or game, etc" but never factor in maybe a guys absence hurts a teams defense or their rebounding as far as clearing the glass on defense, etc. All that said, the fact is that when a line moves I like to look for value on the other side and if it is there I take it. This is one of those cases. Orlando has gone over the total in 4 straight games and 8 of its last 10. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and 3 of the last 4 meetings at Atlanta have gone over the total. Magic allowing 119 points per game last 9 games. Hawks allowing 113 points per game last 6 games. Also, those two perfect trends above combine for a 7-0 / 100% double perfect situation we are testing here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Central Div Total of the Year - NBA Rotation #501 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:10 ET - When it gets late in the season I like to look at match-ups like this one for overs. These two teams are at the bottom of the central division. They are going nowhere this season and they know it. Where is the motivation to play defense? Exactly! Not only that, these teams have a history of high-scoring games when they match-up. Each of the last NINE meetings have gone over. That's right, a 9-0 / 100% PERFECT over run! Each team is allowing 111 points per game this season and about 48% from the field and 37%/38% from three point land. In other words, neither of these teams have been strong on the defensive end this season. I realize that this match-up does not feature the most skilled offensive players in the NBA to say the least but that is factored into this low posted total too which I feel strongly will prove to be far too low. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Situational Slaughter - NBA Rotation #567 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers @ 1:10 ET - The Pacers are off an under at Utah but, of course, the Jazz are known for playing tough defense particularly when at home and particularly when healthy. That was a great spot for the Jazz to go into shutdown mode. Now Indiana faces a team that is willing to run the floor with them and I am expecting plenty of points here. The Pacers were on an 8-3 run to the over in road games before that under at Utah. Also, 4 of the last 5 times Indiana has visited Atlanta, the result has been an over. The Hawks have not been scoring as well last few games but a lot of that had to do with who they were facing. Now they are hosting a Pacers team which has allowed an average of 122 points per game in regulation time of its last 8 games. The first total on this one off shore was a 238 and it has since dropped to a 234.5 which means additional line value here as well. The Hawks could get John Collins back for this one also. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

ESPN Smash Pass - NBA Rotation #555 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Lakers vs Utah Jazz @ 4:40 ET - I am aware of the injury situations with these teams but the first total released on this game was 219 and now we're seeing 216. This is leading to value with the over. The Jazz are in a back to back spot after hosting Indiana yesterday. That was the 5th time in last 7 games that Utah has allowed 111 points or more. Utah scored 119 yesterday and that is also their average points scored the last 8 games. You can see where I am going with this one. That right there is calling for a 119 to 111 final here in this one just like yesterday's game. Of course I am not saying that will be the score but just saying we could very easily be in the 230 range here which means a lot of value with this rather low posted total. Utah's most recent 2nd game of a back to back was a low-scoring win over the Thunder but their 5 preceding 2nd of 2 situations in a back to back saw each game total at least 225 points! The Lakers enter this game on a 5-1 run to the over. 10* OVER the total in LA Lakers

Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #536 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:10 ET - I still can not believe that Philadelphia did not cover against the Nets Wednesday night as they let the easy cover slip away late. Much less to worry about here as we have a very small number to work with and the Clippers have injury issues. I know LA comes into this one having won 7 straight but Leonard is questionable (foot) and Ibaka and Beverley are both out with injuries. The Sixers are the much healthier team and also have two off days on deck as they do not play again until Monday. The 76ers are on a 3-game winning streak and are 4-1 this season when they entered a game having won 3 straight. The home team has been the winning team in recent meetings between these teams and here Philly gets revenge for the double digit loss at Los Angeles 3 weeks ago. Situation and injuries strongly favor the home team here. Lay the small number. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - NBA Rotation #525 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:40 ET - I am aware of the Giannis injury situation but the Bucks played without him yesterday at Minnesota and still put up 130 points. I am also aware of the Trae Young injury situation and do expect him back today but, even if he does not play, the Hawks should score well here. They had 66 points at half-time Tuesday. Even through 3 quarters they were still on pace to score 120 in that game. But a poor 4th quarter nearly cost them game against the Raptors. Now back home for this one, I expect them to be much better in terms of strong scoring throughout. Getting Young back would simply be an added boost and I am expecting him back but like this one to fly over the total either way. The Bucks are 12-6 to the over last 18 games. Their most recent match-up with the Hawks totaled 244 points. Atlanta is off back to back unders but this is on the heels of a 7-2 run to the over including each of the Hawks last two home games going over the total. This one will too. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta

Situational Slaughter - NBA Rotation #502 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:10 ET - This is a big showdown for Eastern Conference dominance but the problem is that it may not live up to its billing. It is a back to back spot for the Nets. Kevin Durant played yesterday. Playing in a back to back would be rare for him and he might be limited or certainly not at his best. Kyrie Irving missed yesterday's game for personal absence. He might be in Philly physically tonight but will he be there mentally? LaMarcus Aldridge dealing with an illness (missed yesterday's game) may not seem like a big deal but actually the Nets were hoping he could guard Joel Embiid who is becoming the most dominant big man in the NBA. That said, the fact Aldridge might miss or be limited or not be 100% is another issue for Brooklyn in this one. Of course James Harden is out for sure with his hamstring injury. So the Sixers hold a ton of edges here in the health department and situational department as they are at home and were able to rest yesterday. These teams are tied for the top spot in the East with identical 37-17 records. The 76ers are the much healthier team and the home team has won both meetings by more than a dozen points this season. Different night, same result here as the injury factor is just too much for the Nets to overcome against a highly motivated Sixers team. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Total of the Year - NBA Rotation #571 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - With all the injuries for both teams, including Trae Young being questionable for the Hawks, we are getting a low total here. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the public perception here and going with the over regardless of who is on the floor. That's because the set up here is perfect. Each team is off an under but each team faced an opponent that trends toward lower scoring games. Atlanta faced the Hornets and Toronto faced the Knicks. Prior to the under in most recent game, the over was on a 7-2 overall run and 5-0 road game run in Hawks games. Prior to the under in most recent game, the Raptors had gone over the total in 3 straight games. Look for these teams to resume the high-scoring ways now that they are matched up against each other. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

ESPN Smash Pass - NBA Rotation #559 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:35 ET - The last time these teams met the game stayed under the total but the posted total was 227.5 points and now we are dealing with a posted total nearly ten points below that! I know the Sixers are on an under trend but I feel this total has been adjusted too far down compared to the prior meeting in late February. Keep in mind, the Mavericks are in a back to back but they lost versus San Antonio yesterday and are 9-1 SU the last 10 times when off a SU loss. They are going to bring a strong effort here and have averaged scoring 116.5 points the last 6 times when off a loss. The Sixers are averaging 110 points per game their last 11 road games. Each team should get to at least 110 here and that puts this game well past the posted total. The 76ers know the Mavericks are in 2nd game of a back to back and will push the tempo here and try to run them right out of the arena and wear them down in doing so. Good pace to this one. 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Situational Slaughter - NBA Rotation #533 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks @ 1:05 ET - The spread and total jumped some this morning as injury news is breaking, etc. But you see this so many times and so often playing the other side of the move is the way to go as the opposite impact of the news is what actually ends up occurring. So in this case the total dropped from a 221.5 to a 218.5 early this morning and I will not hesitate to get involved and fade the move. I am aware there are injury issues but others will step up and so often these situations lead to more points than you would expect as there tends to be some sloppy basketball that leads to quick transition opportunities for each offense. Looking at the recent facts here, the Hornets have extra confidence from back to back wins and having won 7 of 10 games. They have scored at least 113 points in each of their last 4 wins. The Hawks are on a 7-2 run to the over and have scored an average of 122 points their last 6 games. More of the same expected here. I know the first two meetings this season went under but the totals were 232.5 then 228.5 and now we have 218.5 which is offering us great value here. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte

Situational Slaughter - NBA Rotation #583 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Cavaliers are playing with more confidence right now as they enter this game off back to back wins in which they scored an average of 127 points per game. The Raptors could get Lowry back for this one but even if he does not return, they did not have him when they scored 130 against Golden State in what is part of a 4-game stretch which has seen Toronto average 112 points per game. This is a late-season match-up (only 20 games left roughly for each team) between a pair of clubs that know their playoff hopes are all but finished. These are the kind of games I like to look for a bit of let-up in defensive intensity and loose, relaxed play on the offensive end that often leads to strong shooting performance. Cavs off back to back big wins with a lot of points scored and the Raptors will be ready to match them bucket for bucket here in an entertaining game between two teams "playing out the string" on this season. Per all of the above, this total is set too low in my opinion. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Situational Slaughter - NBA Rotation #505 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls @ 8:10 ET - I am aware of all the players listed on the injury report for each team. However, couple comments here. As for Atlanta, I do expect Clint Capela to play as the reason he sat out the most recent game was an Achilles injury but also had a lot to do with it being a back to back situation. Also, the Bulls players listed are not key guys. That said, I am expecting plenty of points in this one as Chicago has a lot of confidence off 3 straight wins and facing an Atlanta team without a few guys for this one. The Bulls have scored at least 113 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Hawks, even without John Collins have scored an average of 118 points (not including OT) in their last 5 games. This one should get close to the 235 mark the way I see it but it is priced near the 225 mark. We'll take it. The only other match-up this season stayed under the total even though the teams combined for 142 points in the first half. After that statistical anomaly look for this one to be high-scoring in more than just the first half! The over improves to 7-2 in the Hawks last 9 games. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Situational Slaughter - NBA Rotation #575 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:35 ET - I am aware of all the players listed on the injury report for each team. However, couple comments here. As for Toronto, hardly any of those guys contributed to the 130 points the Raptors recently scored in a home win. Also, the Bulls players listed are not key guys. That said, I am expecting plenty of points in this one as Chicago has a lot of confidence off back to back wins and facing a Toronto team without Lowry and that could also be missing VanVleet for this one. The Bulls have scored at least 113 points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Raptors have scored an average of 111 points their last 3 home games and, going further back, an average of 115 points their last 8 home games. This one should get close to the 230 mark the way I see it but it is priced near the 220 mark. We'll take it. This is a match-up of two teams with losing records on the season and I just do not expect a tremendous amount of defensive intensity in this one. Look for just the opposite actually. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Southwest Div Total of the Year - NBA Rotation #553 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks @ 8:05 ET - The Mavericks are off a huge win versus the Jazz and held them to 103 points. After beating one of the best in the west they now have a game on deck against the Bucks which is one of the best teams in the east. Do you really think they are going to be focused on defensive play against a Rockets team that is 13-37 this season? I know that Houston is an in-state division rival but the fact is the Rockets stink this season. That means plenty of points in this one as the Mavericks can freely "run and gun" in this game and still easily prevail. I also like the fact that Houston is 3-0 to the over their last 3 home games. The Rockets scored an average of 118.3 points per game in those contests but have allowed 126.6 points per game their last 5 games overall. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Atlantic Div Game of the Year - NBA Rotation #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -115 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The 76ers are off a loss versus Memphis Sunday but Joel Embiid was rested because it was the 2nd game of a back to back and he had just returned from injury Saturday. Of course he will be back on the floor here and ready to dominate. Philadelphia had won 12 of 15 before Sunday's loss and they'll go all out here against their hated rivals. Long-time rivalry between these teams and Boston, again, knocked them out of the playoffs last season. The Sixers have gotten some measure of revenge with a couple wins over the Celtics already this season and I expect them to continue to prove they are now the elite team in this division. Boston has fallen on some hard times for sure and they do not play as strong on the defensive end as consistently as they use to. The Celtics are off back to back wins but this was preceded by a stretch in which they lost 8 of 12 games. I know they have the home court edge here but, in my opinion, that is a plus for our play here because it is the reason this line is right around a pick'em and I fully expect the road team to big up the victory here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115

Earliest Dominator - NBA Rotation #517 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - When a team is entering a game off a very unusual result, things usually quickly return to normal and yet we get line value because of the prior result. In this case that applies to both teams. Toronto is off a win in which they allowed only 77 points. On the season they are allowing 112 points per game, 35 points more than that, so you know what is coming here. The Wizards are, ironically, off back to back games in which they scored 91 points or less each time. On the season, Washington is averaging 114 points per game. Again, you know what is coming here. These are two bad teams that are not known for playing good defense and, in fact, just looking at their 7 most recent meetings...all 7 have gone over the total. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Big East Beast - NBA Rotation #501 Sunday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 2 ET - I am aware that James Harden is out for the Nets and, of course, Kevin Durant is still out. However, there is still plenty of talent on this Brooklyn team and others are stepping out with key guys out. Long-term the Nets have won 12 of 14 games and they enter this game on a 4-game winning streak. We are simply getting line value here because of the injury situation for Brooklyn because the fact is the Bulls are struggling badly. Chicago has lost 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8 games. Lay the small number with the Nets in this one as this is a classic case of hot versus not. 10* BROOKLYN

Big East Beast - NBA Rotation #563 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:10 ET - Wizards off an embarrassing low-scoring beatdown at Detroit. However, in their last 7 home games they averaged 119 points. The Mavericks are favored here. That means if Washington hits their reason home average but loses like they are expected to there then this total gets into the 240s. That said I feel we do have some solid line value here as the Wizards have allowed 120 points or more in 9 of last 13 games. The Mavericks off a very low-scoring win at New York last night but had scored an average of 120 points per game in their 7 preceding road games. With each team off rare games where they did not even get to the century mark in points scored, look for a high-scoring wild one tonight. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Big East Beast - NBA Rotation #545 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets @ 7:40 ET - I do not expect much defense in this non-conference battle. The last time these teams met the game totaled 241 points. The Boston defense has not been what it once was this season and they enter this game having allowed at least 113 points in 5 of last 6 games. Houston has plenty of problems as we all know as they just endured a horrific long losing streak and poor defensive play has a lot to do with it. The Rockets are allowing 115 points per game on the road this season. 4 of Houston's last 6 road games have totaled at least 228 points and I am confident this one gets into the 230s as the Celtics are in need of a blowout win and will not take their foot off the gas in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston

NBA TV Game of the Month - NBA Rotation #547 Friday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:40 ET - The Mavericks only won by 5 points at Boston Wednesday but anyone who watched the game realizes it could have (and should have) been by much more. That said, there is value here with this rather low number as Dallas takes on a much lesser team in New York. The fact is the Knicks are fourth quarter failures this season and proved that again with an inexcusable loss at Minnesota in their most recent game. I haven't looked this up because whether they are dead last or not is besides the point but I just know that the Knicks have to be one of the worst scoring teams in the 4th quarters of games in the NBA this season. I just see it time and time again that this team chokes and even if they hang around with the Mavs through 3 quarters in this one then they will get obliterated in the 4th quarter like they have done so often this season. This is the first of two meetings between these teams this season and with the Mavericks just 1-3 SU and ATS the past two seasons against the Knicks, New York has their full attention here. I know the Knicks have a decent record and particularly at home but the Mavericks are on a mission to win their division and have won 16 of their last 23 games. They will stay hot here! 10* DALLAS 

Big East Beast - NBA Rotation #529 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:10 ET - The 76ers are on the road for this one but I am mentioning their home record (19-4) here because only one team in the NBA, Utah, has fewer home losses and so the Sixers certainly remember theirs. One of those four defeats as a host came at the hands of the Cavaliers in late February. Now it is time for payback. Even though Embiid is still out for Philadelphia, he is expected back this weekend. Just the fact his return is imminent is a big boost to the spirits of his Sixers teammates and they are still much more talented than this Cleveland team even though the Cavaliers have won both meetings this season (one in OT). Another issue for the Cavs is they have a number of players listed as questionable for tonight's game. Look for the 76ers to take advantage! The Sixers are off back to back losses but they were road games against the Nuggets and Clippers. Though still on the road for this one, Philly will take advantage of facing one of the worst teams in the league. Philadelphia had won 12 of 14 games before the back to back losses and Cleveland has lost 9 of 12 games and the average margin of defeat has been 16 points per loss. Look for another ugly Cavaliers loss here as the 76ers get their revenge. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Big East Beast - NBA Rotation #515 Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (-115) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - Even though Jaylen Brown might play tonight he still dealing with a hip injury and his Celtics have been struggling. Boston has lost 6 of 9 overall including 3 of last 4 at home. The Mavericks enter this game off a win at Oklahoma City and have won 6 of last 9 road games! Though Boston is at home here they have not dominated as a host like they typically do and also the Mavs actually have a better road record than home record this season. Also, the Celtics have gone just 7-11 against Western Conference teams this season. The Boston defense has not been what it once was this season and they enter this game having allowed at least 114 points in 4 of last 5 games. The Mavericks, on the other hand, have allowed just 105.4 points per game their last 5 games. Look for the road team to continue their push to hold on to the top spot in the Southwest Division. 10* DALLAS 

NBA Rotation #512 Wednesday 8* Detroit Pistons (+) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:10 ET - The Pistons got a strong night from young players and had hot shooting at home to take down the Raptors on Monday. The fact Detroit is still at home and continues to play with more confidence and heart than they had been has me liking them as a sizable home dog here against Portland. The Pistons are on a 7-3 ATS run and have covered 3 of last 4 at home and just do not seem to show any quit in their game. The Trail Blazers enter this game on a hot 10-4 SU run but this is a team whose last 9 wins have all been by single digits and the average margin of victory in those games was only 4.4 points. This will be another tight one here and if the Pistons don't pull out the SU victory look for them to lose by the slimmest of margins here. Grab the points. 8* DETROIT

NBA Rotation #510 Wednesday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) vs Miami Heat @ 7:10 ET - Solid spot for a small home dog here. The Pacers were eliminated from the playoffs by the Heat last season and Indiana has already gotten revenge this season by winning 2 games at Miami earlier this month. However, I don't expect any let up here as this is the Pacers first shot at home against the Heat this season. Sure Miami would like to get revenge for the two home losses versus Indiana this season but this is just not the same team this season. The Heat are off a win at New York but that was preceded by 6 straight losses both SU and ATS. Now Miami takes on a Pacers team that is off a loss at Washington but previously had won 4 of 5 games. Indiana has not played well at home this season and that has cost them. They are currently just outside the playoff spots in the East and the Heat are just inside for the final playoff spot. Long way to go in the regular season but the Pacers know they need to start to defend their home floor better if they are going to get into the post-season. Look for that to begin here with a big win over the Heat. 8* INDIANA

NBA Rotation #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - Washington off a crazy win over Indiana yesterday. Why was it crazy? The Wizards are one of the worst teams in the NBA and were without Bradley Beal but shot a ridiculous 56% from the field including 53% from three-point land and also outrebounded the Pacers by a huge margin. None of those things are likely to be repeated here. This is a divisional game and the Hornets, leaders in the division, will come in focused. They have won 6 of 7 divisional games this season while the Wizards have lost 6 of 7 divisional games. Washington is off back to back wins but this was preceded by a 2-10 stretch and we have got a low number to work with here with Charlotte. The Hornets are angry off an OT loss and that defeat was preceded by a 7-3 run. They resume their divisional dominance here with another convincing win over the Wizards similar to the 119-97 victory in their earlier meeting this season. 10* CHARLOTTE

#559 NBA 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - Great spot to fade a bad team and lay a short number. Yes the Wizards are off a win but it came against a very bad Pistons team and Washington almost blew that game before recovering just in time to secure the win after blowing a massive halftime lead. The Wizards are just 6-20 in Eastern Conference games this season! They had lost 10 of 12 games prior to the win over Detroit. They are hosting a Pacers team that has the most road wins (13) of all but one other team in the entire Eastern Conference. Indeed Indiana has been better on the road than at home this season the Pacers enter this game on an overall run of 4 wins in their last 5 games. 3 of Indiana's last 4 road wins have come by a double digit margin. The Wizards most recent loss was by a margin of just 4 points but this was preceded by a stretch in which 7 of Washington's last 8 losses were by a margin of 6 or more points. Look for this one to turn into a road rout as the Pacers also have fresh legs as they have not played since Friday. The Wizards also have a key injury (Beal - hip) to deal with. 10* INDIANA

Big East Beast - NBA 10* Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:10 ET - I was looking to fade the Raptors after they so luckily got the back door cover against the Suns on Friday and now I have the perfect situation to do so. To the public it looks easy to take Toronto at nearly a pick'em price on their home floor. After all, most bettors love the home court "edge" but this season the Raptors have not even been playing in Toronto. That said, is it any surprise they are only 9-11 at home this season? Also, this is a Raptors team that is only 6-11 against Western Conference teams. Also Toronto enters this game on a 2-12 SU run. As for the Trail Blazers, they are on a 9-4 SU run their last 13 games and also are a rock solid 12-6 against Eastern Conference teams. Damon Lillard missed the last game for the Blazers but they still beat Orlando. However, they did not cover in that game which is also helping to give us line value in this one. Portland only beat the Raptors by a single point when these teams met in January so there is no way the Blazers will overlook them here. Look for a road rout as a result as Toronto's losing stretch goes to 2-13 last 15 games. 10* PORTLAND

Big East Beast - NBA 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 8 ET - The Pistons burned me yesterday as they rallied for the backdoor cover. On that note the Raptors did the same thing to me yesterday but they are not in action tonight. Detroit is in action and we are going to get our money back by fading this weak team. I know the Wizards are not a great team but they are better than Detroit and also a better team when they are on their home floor. Washington is off 3 straight losses but those games were on the road. The Wizards most recent home game was a win over Utah - one of the best teams in the league! Now Washington hosts one of the worst teams in the league and I expect them to take full advantage. The Pistons are 5-19 SU in road games this season and the Wizards are laying only 3.5 points here. Washington is a respectable 8-9 SU last 17 home games and the average margin of victory in the 8 wins is 9.8 points per game. Look for a win by a double digit margin as the Wizards have played just 3 games the last 8 days while Detroit is playing the 2nd game of a back to back and it will be their 3rd game in 4 days! 10* WASHINGTON

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #515 Friday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (-) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:30 ET - Ideal set-up for a road rout here. The Suns are off a 1-point loss at Orlando but that was preceded by wins in 12 of their last 15 games both SU and ATS. As for the Raptors, they are off a rare win as they knocked off Denver in convincing fashion on Wednesday. The blowout win over the Nuggets followed a 9 game losing streak for Toronto and a 1-5 ATS run their last 6. That ugly run for the Raptors even included an 18-point loss to a Rockets team that had lost 20 straight games! In fact, that Toronto loss immediately preceded the win over Denver and now I look for the Suns to immediately return the Raptors to their losing ways. Phoenix is angry here and will not take their foot off the gas in this one. Each of the Suns last 14 wins have come by at least a 6 point margin and all signs point to that streak reaching 15 in a row here! 10* PHOENIX

Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Friday 8* Brooklyn Nets (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:00 ET - The Nets lost by 30 at Utah Wednesday but, already without Durant and Irving, Harden did not play either. Harden is dealing with a neck injury but I really don't see him missing this game. The fact is Brooklyn got him some extra rest and treated the Jazz game as a throwaway game. Now, however, the Nets take on one of the worst teams in the league and they have two off days on deck after this. As a result, I fully expect the Nets to go hard here plus Harden to be back. Additionally, Griffin is expected to be back and could have a special game considering he'll be facing his former team. Even short-handed against the Jazz, Brooklyn did have more shot attempts from the field in Wednesday's loss. The difference was that the Nets had a very poor shooting night while the Jazz were lights out from three-point land and outscored Brooklyn by 48 points from beyond the arc. Suffice to say that was a huge difference in the 30-point win and that won't be repeated here. No matter who ends up on the floor for the Nets in this one, they take advantage of a Pistons team that has lost 12 of its last 16 games and is having a very rough season overall. 8* BROOKLYN

Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:40 ET - This total has dropped from the low 220s down to as low as 218 as of early game day morning. The Blazers are off back to back unders but allowed an average of 124 points per game so there is value baked into today's total. Portland has allowed an average of 122.3 points per game their last 3 games. The Heat are off back to back unders on their home floor but this was on the heels of a 5-2 run to the over in Miami home games. The Heat have had 1 low-scoring effort on their home floor last 9 games but averaged 111.1 points per game in the other 8 games. As for Portland, they have had 1 low-scoring effort their last 11 games but have scored an average of 117.5 points per game the other 10 games. More of the same expected here and this one should get into the upper 220s for a point total as you can see so we have excellent value with the over here. The over is a long-term 16-6 in meetings between these teams in Miami and the two meetings last season saw the Heat and Trail Blazers combine to average 228.5 points per game. 10* OVER the total in Miami

Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #560 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers are not just off a loss here, they are off a thorough beatdown. That said, they certainly should respond huge here. Indiana just allowed 140 points in a loss at Milwaukee but this was on the heels of back to back wins over a Miami team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. In other words, perhaps the beatdown made sense. But now the Pacers go from facing of the league's best teams to facing one of the league's worst. Indiana has not tasted victory on their home floor since the beginning of February so I know they are going to bring a huge effort here. The Pacers will take advantage of hosting a Pistons team that is the only team in the NBA that is still winless in their own division. Detroit is 0-8 this season in divisional play and also 5-18 in road games. This one gets ugly! 10* INDIANA

Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #547 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - The Nuggets are off a loss and that sets this one up perfectly. Denver is a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last 4 times when off a defeat. Also, they are on the road here so we get a manageable line and they are facing a Magic team that is enduring a horrific long-term run. Orlando is 1-10 SU their last 11 games. The Magic have been held to an average of just 97 points per game their last 5 games. Denver, when off a loss, averaged 119.5 points per game the last 4 times after tasting defeat. Look for the Nuggets to cruise to a double digit victory here. 10* DENVER

Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:10 ET - The Thunder are in a back to back spot after a high-scoring win at Houston yesterday. Speaking of high-scoring, OKC has allowed 116 points per game the last 5 times when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Now they face a Timberwolves team that will be fired up at home after a road loss that stayed under the total. Minnesota can score well for sure and was on an 8-2 run to the over prior to the loss at Phoenix. The Wolves have allowed an average of 124 points their last 11 games and they are the favorite here too! That said, you can see where I am going with this one. Minny gives up a ton of points but, per the odds makers, are expected to win this game. As a result, this one should fly over the total rather easily. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Monday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings (-) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - The Kings are off a bad loss at Philly but entered that game 9-13 against the East this season. That is noteworthy here because the Cavaliers are just 4-14 against the West this season. Also, Cleveland is in a back to back spot here plus off a big win versus Toronto. Sacramento is 4-1 SU the last 5 times they were off a loss and I expect them to bounce back here and take advantage of a Cavs team in the 2nd game of a back to back and known for struggling against Western Conference teams. 10* SACRAMENTO

Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #512 Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 1:10 ET - These teams just met Friday and the Pacers were seeking revenge for last year's playoff exit. They got it in a big way but it was a bit of a fluke. Give Indiana credit for sure but it was also just one of those nights where everything was falling. Indiana made 20 of 36 three pointers while Miami made just 9 of 34. The Pacers won the game by a 27 point margin but they outscored the Heat by 33 points from beyond the arc! Suffice to say that kind of disparity is not happening again and you know Miami will be hungry today after suffering such an embarrassing loss on their home floor Friday! The Heat are now off back to back losses and will be out for blood after one of their worst defeats of the season. That said, lay the short number here. 10* MIAMI

Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Lakers vs Atlanta Hawks @ 3:40 ET - Another total that has made a downward movement and that I expect to prove to be a mistake. The Lakers have averaged 118 points per game their last 7 games. The Hawks have scored at least 115 points in 5 of last 6 games. 118 to 115 Lakers over Atlanta is very close to the spread on this game and yet that puts the final score about a dozen points above the posted total. Perhaps little value with the side but that is a lot of value with the O/U. Enough said! 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Lakers 

Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #565 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:40 ET - This total has been dropping all morning but this has led to great value in this one in my opinion. The Kings have scored at least 110 points in 20 of their last 21 games and none of those went to OT! Sacramento has scored 117 points per game during this stretch. However, the Kings are a 7 point dog here. So that would put this game at about 124-117 and a total above the 240 mark. Can we really expect Boston to get into that range though? You bet...literally! Sacramento has allowed an average of 123 points per game their last 17 games and, again, none of those went into overtime! Also, the Celtics last 6 victories, none going to OT, did see them average 122 points. Look for this one to be very high-scoring and I am happy to fade the line move and grab the resulting extra line value. 10* OVER the total in Boston