Rotation #555: NBA Sunday Minnesota Timberwolves -115 @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:30 ET - The Timberwolves are dominating this series and I don't see that changing here. If the Suns were going to get back in this series it would have been Game 3. But they again got dominated on the boards, just like Game 1, and this was even though they were at home. Phoenix just has not looked good on either end of the floor and the Timberwolves would love to give their big men extra rest by completing the sweep by wrapping up this series with a Game 4 win in Phoenix. Note that Minnesota has averaged 14.6 more rebounds per game than the Suns in this series. With that kind of an edge on the glass a team has to shoot very well to beat you. Phoenix has not been shooting well plus this Timberwolves defense deserves credit for that too. They were one of the top teams defensively in the regular season as well so this comes as no surprise. It is evident watching this series that one team wants it more. The Suns had a chance to make a series of it with a Game 3 win but they are now defeated both physically and mentally. Their season ends tonight. MINNESOTA -115

Rotation #547: NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets Money Line -155 @ LA Lakers @ 8:30 ET - As long-time followers know, I play a lot of money line dogs. This is a rare case where I am playing a money line favorite in NBA. I expect this series ends tonight. The Nuggets are the defending NBA champs and they certainly know plenty about the importance of rest. With the Wolves on the edge of sweeping the Suns and other series seeing the Mavs and Thunder look quite dominant against their respective foes, Denver knows a sweep would certainly help them prepare even better for the tough road ahead. The concerning thing for the Lakers is they had a 10 point lead after the first quarter in Game 3 and yet lost by 17 points the rest of the way in the eventual 7 point loss. The Nuggets dominated on the glass in that game too. Both teams shot poorly and yet Denver still was the team to grind out the win. Also, the Lakers have been missing some depth players that still remain out. Then when you look at the star players like Davis and James, note that Davis is listed as questionable with a wrist issue and that is different from the back issue he has been playing through. As for LeBron, he is consistently on the injury report with his ankle issue but is he truly wearing down now? He was 1 of 6 from 3-point land on his home floor and he only had 6 rebounds in 42 minutes. Some extra time off between Games 3 and 4 - for example, like Embiid and Sixers have against Knicks - would certainly help James and Davis but that is not the case here. We could lay the 3.5 points here but I am more comfortable with the money line given there has already been a tight 2-point win in this series also. DENVER -155

Rotation #535: NBA Friday Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8 ET - Notice the line flip here and yes the status of Kawhi Leonard is up in the air but the Clippers won Game 1 without him and then lost Game 2 with him. But why are the Mavs now laying 4.5 just because they are at home? These teams were both about the same on the road as at home. That said, the Clips went off the board as a favorite in Game 2 because of Leonard playing but now they are catching 4.5 points on the road even though he might play again plus even though the Clips won Game 1 when he did not play. I like value and this one shapes up to be a highly competitive series with possible tight finishes just like the 3 point win the Mavs just had. If you look at the Mavs last 6 home games, they are 5-1 SU but with 1 of those wins in OT and 2 of the other wins by just a bucket. There is a lot of value here with 4.5 points. The Clippers have won a modest 5 of 9 games but 2 of those 4 losses by 3 or less points. Also, one of the only two bigger losses was a season finale after Clips already clinched the division. The Clips were outscored by 18 points from 3 point land in the 3 points loss in Game 2 and, overall, it was unusually poor shooting that did in LA in that game. In Game 1 they shot very well and never trailed and led by as many as 29. After also having more shots from the field in Game 2 but shooting poorly, there is solid value here and we'll take it with the points. LA CLIPPERS (+)

Rotation #528: NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 vs New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - If the Knicks had Julius Randle this would like be a sweep. However, as it stands now, the Sixers might win just one game. In my mind however, this is absolutely the game that happens. Philadelphia is angry about the way the final 30 seconds of that debacle played out in New York Monday when the Sixers had a 5 point lead evaporate and there were some questionable officiating moments. In any event, Philly found a way to lose that game but there are a couple of keys here as to why the Sixers should bounce back for a huge win in this one. The extra rest is huge for Philly as Embiid still trying to recover. Having 2 full off days between games is a big plus for the Sixers to rest up both mentally and physically. Also, other than Embiid and red hot All-Star Maxey, Philly did not get enough from their players in New York. Secondary role players - those outside of Philadelphia's big 1-2 punch - are likely to be much more comfortable on their home floor. I see the Sixers getting better shooting and better overall play from some of the key supporting cast. At the same time, the determination and effort of Embiid and Maxey is going to be off the charts here. Philadelphia's backs are against the wall now and they are angry. This is a can't lose game for Philly. Of course that does not always translate to a win but in this case, per all of the above, I would say the situation strongly favors a big Philly win. The Knicks have not shot all that well either and that was in New York. But Philly is fully capable of lighting it up with hot shooting when they are at home and it will be a raucous crowd here as well. Sixers poised to win this by double digits. The 76ers are 7-2 SU the last 9 times they have entered a game off B2B losses and all 7 wins were by at least a 6 point margin! This is the Sixers Game of the Year and you should see them play one of their best games of the season with intense defense and a much stronger shooting performance on their home floor. PHILADELPHIA -4.5

Rotation #519: NBA Wednesday OVER 210.5 in Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:30 ET - The total on Game 1 was about a half-dozen points higher than this at tipoff. The game easily stayed under the total and now there has been an over-adjustment in game two. Not that the teams combined to make only 29.6% of their threes in Game 1. Also, the teams combined to make just 40.9% of their field goals overall and there were only 17 combined free throws made in the game. The point is that all of these numbers are unusually low and I expect a much better shooting effort in Game 2. The combined scoring of the 2nd and 3rd quarters was 108 points which translates to a 216 point total. Coincidentally that was the range of the posted total in Game 1 and so you can see where I am going with this. Lets take advantage of the special value here and look for these teams to both shoot better here. There were only 10 times this season that the Pelicans scored 100 or less points. 9 of the 10 times that happened their next game totaled at least 216 points! The Thunder had 4 games in which they were held to 100 or less points, their next game totaled at least 231 points in the very next game 3 of 4 times. The only time it did not the next game totaled 210 points! This total is 210.5 and given the history these teams have when off a rare grinder of a game, I like the odds on this one playing out in a much different way. We'll ride the over here and look for a bit of a shootout in Game 2 of what should be a thrilling series, even without Williamson. OVER 210.5 in Oklahoma City

Rotation #513: NBA Tuesday Dallas Mavericks -2 @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 10 ET - The Mavericks did not just lose Game 1, they scored just 8 points in the 2nd quarter and trailed 56-30 at the half in an unreal result! These are not the only quirky stats in the games that was ultimately decided by a 12 point margin. The Clippers also made 18 of 36 three pointers! What I like here is that the Clips outscored the Mavs by 24 points (Dallas made 10 threes) from beyond the arc yet the Mavs lost the game by "only" a 12-point margin. That said, there is some value here because I am confident the Clippers will not be raining threes again with such success in Game 2. It is just not sustainable. What it sustainable is being hungry and physical and doing everything you can to get to the free throw line. The Mavs did have 33 free throw attempts compared to just 13 for the Clips in Game 1. Also, Dallas had the edge in steals plus blocked shots were a huge 9 to 3 edge. It was an ugly loss for the Mavs but there were some interesting takeaways from that defeat and I am expecting a very focus and hungry road team to get some payback here in Game 2. This is true even if Kawhi Leonard does end up playing for LA in this one. Dating back to the regular season, the Mavs have now lost 3 straight games. They are a PERFECT 5-0 SU the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. All 5 of those SU wins have also come by a margin of more than 2 points. Also, when the Clippers are off a SU win by a double digit margin in which they also held their opponent to 98 or less points, LA has gone 0-4 SU and all 4 SU losses were by at least a 3 point margin. Double perfect spot here! Lay it! DALLAS -2

Rotation #503: NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +170 @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - Amazingly, since the Lakers beat the Pelicans AT New Orleans Tuesday in the first post-season game (part of the play-in portion of the schedule), 13 STRAIGHT post-season games have seen the home team win straight-up! Yes, a 13-0 SU playoff run for the hosts! This is unusual and will not continue. Road wins are a part of every post-season and this looks like a great spot for one here. The Sixers were +14 with Joel Embiid on the floor in Game 1. The next game after this is Thursday at Philly. The 76ers know they will have multiple days to rest up after this game and they know that going into an 0-2 hole is going to be tough to overcome. Their bench let them down in Game 1 but not only would I expect them to be better in Game 2, I also expect them to be used even less in this one. This game is going to come down to a determined group of Sixers starters giving it their all after they let Game 1 slip away in the 4th quarter. The Knicks bench outscored the Philly bench by 35 points (42 to 7) and yet New York still trailed in the 4th quarter and only won the game by a single digit margin. The Knicks bench is NOT going to again shoot 8 of 13 from three point land! No way! The point is that there were some crazy stats in Game 1 that have swung the value in favor of the underdog in Game 2. I know we could grab the points here but I am going for the bigger payout with the money line. The 76ers will bring a relentless effort here. I am sure of it! 4 of the 5 Knicks starters combined for a 17 of 52 shooting performance from the field and the Sixers will again be hammered by the New York bench in Game 2. There will be adjustments here and Philly gets on top again and this time does not relinquish the lead. Huge, desperate, underdog effort here and finally another road team wins SU in this post-season! PHILADELPHIA +170

Rotation #583 NBA Sunday Indiana Pacers -115 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7 ET - It is doubtful that  Antetokounmpo is going to play here. If he does, he will not be near to 100%. That said, this Pacers team is extremely hungry as they are finally back in the post-season. Indiana has such a prolific and fast-paced offense and I expect them to throw the Bucks, especially being without Antetokounmpo, out of rhythm in this one. Milwaukee has dealt with so many injuries over the latter portion of the season that their record is not impressive since Rivers took over as head coach. As for the Pacers, they have won 12 of 18 games and they are only missing Benedict Mathurin on the injury front. But he has been out since early March and was not on the floor for that 12-6 run over Indiana's last 18 games. Also, they have looked really strong with Siakam on the floor along with Haliburton and Turner. This team looks healthier and stronger and deeper than seen in quite some time! Unlike a Pacers team that finished the season strong, the Bucks have lost 8 of 11 games. Milwaukee did win their last 2 home games but this followed a 4-game home losing streak! The Bucks are trending the wrong way right now and the Antetokounmpo injury situation makes this a must play the way I see it! By the way, the current line is a -1 in most spots as of 10 hours before tipoff so I would suggest laying a slightly higher price and just grab the money line in this one. INDIANA -115

Rotation #571: Saturday NBA Philadelphia 76ers +140 @ New York Knicks @ 6 ET - When Julius Randle (out for the season - shoulder surgery) first went down in late January, the Knicks had a few easy opponents lined up next. But then, after facing Memphis in early February, New York then went 17-14 the rest of the season without Randle. New York is still a solid team but they don't have the dual star power they had when they had Jalen Brunson in tandem with Randle. Yes, the Knicks still have solid players and are well-coached and play solid defense. However, the Sixers will have Joel Embiid for this game. They have their dual star power with Embiid and Tyrese Maxey! After that, similar to the Knicks, Philly has plenty of solid players and strong role players as well. With Embiid the 76ers have won 31 of 38 games! Yes, a 31-7 run in games he has played. Remember the stat I just told you about the Knicks last 31 games without Randle (17-14). We are getting phenomenal line value here considering the above. Yes, the Knicks are at home and have a solid team but being without Randle makes a huge difference. Also, Embiid only played in one game against New York this season. Yes the Sixers got blasted in that game (36 point differential tied to variance in 3-pointers) but the point is, Philly is now the healthier team. Losing 3 of the 4 regular season meetings is leading to line value here. Maxey and Embiid were both out when the Sixers beat the Knicks here in New York last month. Maxey did score 26 ppg in the other 3 games against the Knicks. This is where coach Nurse earns his contract with the Sixers. Remember he was also in his first year with the Raptors when he led them to a title. Philly will be playing at a different level now that playoff time is here and playoff time means being without a star like Randle can quickly become a killer. Embiid is not 100% but he has shown he can pace himself and then raise to his highest level come crunch time when needed. That said, no points needed here and we take advantage of the plus money on the money line in this one. PHILADELPHIA +140

Rotation #557: NBA Friday Sacramento Kings Money Line (-) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:30 ET - This money line is in the -125 range with the Kings favored on the road at New Orleans. The Pelicans are without Zion Williamson. The Pelicans will do their best to step up in his absence but Williamson just scored 40 points before leaving with an injury in the final minutes of the 4 point loss to the Lakers. No one else on New Orleans topped 12 points! The Pelicans were at home for that game, just like this one, and note Williamson had 9 FT attempts in the game while the rest of the team had just 6 FT attempts. Who will be getting to the line in this game for NO? Who is going to be drawing contact inside and taking hard fouls to get to the line? The fact is the Pelicans just lost an absolutely key player. His presence made even more key because Brandon Ingram is not right. It is clear his knee injury is still limiting him. He had only 12 points in the loss to the Lakers and lasted only 23 minutes and his productivity faded as the game went on. Behind Williamson and Ingram (one absent and one hurting) the 3rd leading scorer for New Orleans is CJ McCollum. He will get a lot of attention here from the Kings defensively (just like he did against the Lakers) and he was 1 of 9 from 3-point land versus the Lakers! That was even with so much attention on Williamson which, of course, will not be the case in this game. The Pelicans won all 5 games against the Kings this season PLUS this game is at home BUT the Kings are now favored here ... think about that for a moment ... exactly! Don't be fooled by this! Lay it! SACRAMENTO (-)

Rotation #552 NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - The 76ers finished the season with 8 straight wins. They rested Embiid in the season finale and he is listed as questionable for this game as a result. However, there is no way he is missing this game. Philly is on a roll and ready to advance and the Heat are still a strong team but they are not on the same level they use to be. Also, some news on the injury front from Miami. Though Duncan Robinson is probable for this game, Terry Rozier has been ruled out and this does impact the depth of Miami for this game. The 76ers 8 straight wins have come by an average margin of 12.6 ppg! The Heat, prior to a double OT win in their final road game of the season, were on a 5-5 run in road games. The margin of defeat in 4 of the 5 losses was 6 or more points. We have solid value here with this line currently as low as a 4.5 as of overnight hours heading into Wednesday! The Heat won the first two games with Philly in the regular season but Embiid missed both of those. The Sixers have won the last two meetings to wrap the regular season series and that was even without Embiid in one of those as well. He is back, the Sixers are confident, they are rested, they are at home, and this is a manageable line. Lay the short number with the hosts in this one! PHILADELPHIA (-)

Rotation #544 NBA Tuesday Sacramento Kings +135 vs Golden State Warriors @ 10 PM ET - In typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move here. This line opened up at nearly a pick'em and, as expected, everyone has jumped all over the Warriors in this one in terms of market analytics. Golden State has a long-term reputation and the star power that leads to them often being over-valued. That is the case here in my opinion. Other than Steph Curry, the other Warriors just are not what they used to be. Yes, the Kings are without Monk and Huerter but they have been without one for two weeks and the other for a month. So they have had time to adjust. They are still loaded with talent and Fox, Sabonis, Murray and Barnes will lead the way here. I also like the fact that Ellis has responded well to his increased playing time and he averaged 15 ppg in the last 4 games. Also, he is a solid defender and of course Fox is known for his perimeter defense as well in addition to being a big-time scorer. The Kings also are not the only one with injuries as the Warriors Payton is out for this one and his absence weakens the Golden State bench for this one. The Warriors finished the season hot but their last two home wins were against a Jazz team that finished 31-51 on the season. Also, Golden State's last 5 road wins included only one win against a playoff-level team (Lakers) and the other 4 were against 22-60 San Antonio, 41-41 Houston, 21-61 Charlotte and 21-61 Portland. So for all the hype about the Warriors strong season finish, they had 4 last season wins over teams that finished 40 games under .500 and two wins over a Utah team that finished 20 games under .500 on the season. Also, the Warriors were better on the road this season but they entered this season having finished a combined 41 games under .500 the last 4 seasons combined when on the road. Last year in the post-season Golden State went just 2-5 SU on the road but those two wins were against the Kings in a 7-game thriller that knocked Sacramento out of the post-season. This is payback! No points needed! SACRAMENTO +135

NBA Sunday Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 1 ET - The Nets have a lengthy injury list for this one but all the guys listed also missed Friday's game against  the Knicks and Brooklyn lost that game by just 4 points! Also, the Sixers are motivated to win this game but they don't have to win in blowout fashion. I could see Philly trying to build a huge lead and then letting it slip away later and settling for a win by about 10 points. There is no reason to push it here. The Sixers do want to win for playoff positioning reasons but they also want to stay healthy for the post-season. Remember that Embiid is still managing the recovery process with his left knee. So this one will likely be a closer game than many are expecting. Also, Brooklyn is just 10-13 SU last 23 games but only 3 of those 23 games was a loss by more than a dozen points! This line is in the 15.5 range and, knowing Philly wants to rest guys, I just can not foresee this game being a complete blowout. BROOKLYN (+)

NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - The 76ers have Embiid on the injury report but it is not due to injury but just managing his minutes as he recovers from the past injury that kept him out so long. However, I would be surprised if he does not play here. The Sixers are still trying to move into a playoff position and avoid the play-in portion of the post-season! By doing this Embiid could rest then! That said, and with time off both in front of this game and after this game, I expect Embiid to play here. Even if he does not, I still like the red hot Sixers to roll at home in this game! As for the Magic, Franz Wagner may not play here as he is dealing with a current ankle injury. Orlando has been missing him and he is again listed as questionable. Also, you know the Philly fans are going to give former Sixer Markelle Fultz a helluva tough time here as well and this Magic team has lost 3 straight road games. So Philly has won 6 straight games and Orlando has lost 3 straight road games and all by 9 or more points so covering the spread should not be an issue here either. Philly has also won both meetings this season and each victory was by at least 15 points. Also, dating back to last season, the 3 last meetings between these teams have all been Philadelphia wins by a double digit margin! It might seem like a big line here but it is set that way for a reason and this Sixers team is on a roll and they will not slow down here and the road slump for Orlando continues here. This line is in the 7.5 range and we will lay it with confidence! PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Thursday New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 -115 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Pelicans off B2B road wins at Phoenix and Portland. Interestingly enough, the road team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last 6 New Orleans games. Look for that road team trend to reach 7 in a row here as, of course, there is a reason the Kings are such a small home court favorite here! Note that Sacramento is 0-4 SU versus the Pelicans this season! In other words, we are testing multiple perfect trends here. The Kings enter this game having lost 5 of 8. I know the Pelicans have not been lighting the world on fire either of late but the road team trending above as well as the series dominance this season is what makes it easier to fade the slumping Kings here. Losing Huerter and Monk, one mid-March one late-March, also hurt the depth of Sacramento. Additionally, Keegan Murray is dealing with a left calf issue. He played through it in most recent game but is questionable here. The Kings might rest him with this being the front end of a B2B situation. Even if he plays, he is not 100% and the already short-handed Kings are in trouble here. The Pelicans have been without Brandon Ingram for a few weeks now but have 3 wins over playoff teams (Heat, Bucks, Suns) the past few weeks without him. Over a similar period, the struggling Kings have only beat 1 playoff team. As noted above, this line is set this way for a reason and the small dog road team is the way to play this one! Look for the Pelicans to make it 5 in a row over Sacramento plus the road team trend reaches 7 in a row! NEW ORLEANS +1.5 -115

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8 ET - I realize Wembanyama may not play here because of the late-season back to back and a season going nowhere. However, if he is out it certainly is about much more than point production. This guy has 7 blocks in each of last two games. The Spurs interior defense will be hurt. I am aware there are many injury issues for San Antonio right now but with both SA and OKC in a B2B spot, I expect very lax defense here. Oklahoma City knows they can easily win this without playing D and the Spurs are just fine getting into a run and gun type game. Yes, the Spurs win at Memphis was an under last night but San Antonio allowed the Grizzlies to take 104 shots from the field. The fact is that the Grizz just had an awful shooting night. Speaking of which, the Spurs also were a sub-par 10 of 40 from 3-point land last night. The Thunder are also off a game that stayed under last night but they also allowed a lot of shots (96) from the field but Sacramento had a 34% shooting night from the field. The situational aspects of this game dictate a small-ball style with a lot of run and gun style and very little defense. The Kings took 58 threes against the Thunder last night. Also, Oklahoma City now has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back on the floor and he scored 40 last night. OKC scored 123 in the first meeting between these teams this season and then the last two meetings have each totaled 250+! More of the same here and we take advantage of a total in the 226.5 range on this one. OVER the total in Oklahoma City

NBA Tuesday OVER in Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons @ 7 ET - The 76ers have been red hot and have 2 days off after this game and were off yesterday too of course! So, with another game not until Friday, the Sixers - no matter who is on the floor - will go all out here. Certainly they have been rejuvenated recently with Embiid playing some and Maxey playing some but, even if guys are rested some here, this Philly team has been showing their depth and they are sure to go all out here. In other words, look for them to surely push the pace here especially because they are excited to be closing out the regular season at home. Believe it or not, this will be just the 3rd home game the 76ers have had since mid-March! That road heavy schedule is why their final 3 games of the season are at home. The Sixers have averaged 116 ppg in winning 5 straight games and that average does not include OT points. Against the Pistons this season, Philly is 3-0 and has averaged 122 ppg in those games. In the last two they averaged 126.5 ppg. The Sixers are a 16 point favorite here so, even going with the lower average against Detroit that puts this final around 122-106 but finishing near the latter average would put this one in the 126-110 range. The point is that both these results crush the total in the 221 to 221.5 range which is posted on this game. The Pistons season is long finished but they could have Cade Cunningham back tonight and, either way, they will be happy to play a fast-paced game with Philly where defense is an after-thought. I am fully projecting that type of game here without a doubt and feel that will push this one into the 230s. OVER in Philadelphia

NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET - Excellent line value here with this line down to a -6. Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B but none of their guys played more than 27 minutes in yesterday's game. It was a big blowout win at Memphis and so none of the starters played in the 4th quarter either! Also, the 76ers need every win they can get right now and they have a great chance to win out as this is their final road game of the season. The Sixers are trying to move up to a playoff spot rather than being stuck in a play-in spot. As for the Spurs, they had been playing better and also playing much more competitive basketball. But now they have had a number of guys lost to injury. They just recently had a pair of guys (Vassell and Sochan) shut down for the season. Also, another player (Osman) is out for this game. Those guys combine to average 38 points per game. San Antonio will have their hands full with a Sixers team rejuvenated by the recent returns of Embiid and Maxey. Even if the Sixers rest a player or two in the B2B (which I do NOT expect) I would still like Philly here as the Spurs are definitely quite short-handed for this one and the 76ers have now won 4 straight games. The Sixers are well-aware they have 3 winnable home games remaining after this as well and they want to get into a playoff spot and avoid the play-in. Perfect scenario for another highly-motivated effort for the road team. Lay it. PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Saturday OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8 ET - There are a lot of question marks about who Philly will have on the floor for this one but the odds makers do have them as a double digit favorite for a reason here of course. That said, this is a late-season non-conference match-up that features a non-playoff team hosting a playoff team that is off B2B key tight wins over stronger teams. I could see a bit of a lackadaisical defensive effort permeating this game from both sides because these are the type of late season match-ups that would lead to a more wide-open affair. It also helps the cause that Memphis has won 3 straight and has been scoring a little better of late. Look at it this way...the Grizzlies have averaged 110 ppg L3 games overall and 110 ppg L5 home games. The Sixers are favored by about 13 in the marketplace so that would put this game at 123-110 for a total of 233 points. I am not saying that happens but I am saying we have some value here when you consider that number is two dozen points above the current posted total of 209 on this game as of about 10 hours before tipoff. The Sixers have won 3 of 4 and have averaged 117 ppg during this stretch and multiple guys missed out in some of those games as well. So even if the 76ers have guys again missing in this one, you can see what they are capable of even without a stacked lineup. Going back to that original formula again looking at the other side of the equation, that puts this at Philly 117-104 over the Grizzlies. A dozen points on top of the current posted number. I see value with this total given the situational and match-up factors. OVER the total in Memphis

NBA Friday Miami Heat (-) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:10 ET - As of very early game day morning the Heat are in the -2.5 to -3 range and some money lines are still as low as the -125 to -135 range. I am jumping all over this one early because the Rockets season ended last night. Houston is still mathematically alive but their season effectively ended after they wasted a glorious opportunity last night. The battle for the final play-in position for the upcoming post-season is basically down to just Golden State and Houston. The Rockets were hosting the Warriors last night. They had a chance to move within 2 games of GS with a win. Instead they lost and dropped 4 games back with only 6 games to go. That said, their season is finished and they know it! For me, it is not just about the loss last night, it is the fact that the Rockets got blown out on their home floor and actually were outscored by the Warriors in all 4 quarters! What kind of team is that when you can't accomplish anything in the biggest game of your season! Give some credit to the Warriors for sure but the fact is the Rockets are as soft as a wet paper towel right now! The Heat come into this game hungry and fired up off the home loss to the Sixers last night. That was a tight game and Miami is in a battle with teams like the 76ers and Pacers to secure the #6 seed in the conference and avoid the play-in round. That said, though they fell short last night, the Heat but in a helluva strong effort. Also, they could get Herro back tonight on the floor and that will be another big boost. The Rockets lost starter Amen Thompson to a rolled ankle late in yesterday's game. He has averaged 30 minutes per game last 9 games and they may not rush him back considering their season, as noted above, is effectively over now. This is a great spot to back the Heat at a great number! MIAMI (-)

NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers money line +115 @ Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - I know the Sixers have some guys questionable for this game but I would not be surprised to see every single one of them on the floor for this game. The reason I say that is because this is a huge game in the playoff picture and, either way (even if some guys miss), I like the way the fill-ins have been playing for the Sixers also and they surge for the win here. This is a key game because Miami is in the #6 spot while Philly currently is in the #8 spot yet the Sixers can move within a half-game of the Heat with a win here. Of course the Sixers would rather avoid the play-in round if possible so that #6 seed is quite coveted. There is a reason this line is priced so low on the Heat even though Embiid, Maxey and Harris are all listed as questionable for the 76ers. Don't let the line fool you. The underdog gets the job done here. No points needed! PHILADELPHIA +115

NBA Wednesday New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 8 ET - This line has dropped down a little from 4.5 to 3.5 and I like the value with the home team laying a short price. They have revenge from a loss at Orlando less than 2 weeks ago. That is actually one of the few wins that the Magic have over a quality opponent in many many weeks! If you look at Orlando's schedule, even though they have been hot overall, they have played a ton of bad teams. The Magic schedule has been friendly, to say the least, but that changes here. They are on the road and facing an angry revenge-minded team. The reason the Pelicans are not in a good mood is they are off B2B losses in addition to seeking revenge here. Very early this season New Orleans had a 5 games losing streak. However, from mid-November onward, the Pelicans have gone 5-1 SU when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. That said, strong odds on a response here from New Orleans even though they are still without Brandon Ingram. By the way, those 5 wins when in this situation included many double digit blowouts and the smallest margin of victory was a 7 point win. The Pelicans roll here. Home court, revenge and situational factors all are in favor of the Pelicans in this one. NEW ORLEANS (-)

NBA Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:30 ET - Joel Embiid is coming back and YES I do know that it is NOT tonight but just the fact he has been practicing with the team and is expect to see his first action on the Sixers upcoming road trip has the 76ers buzzing! They have been ultra competitive of late even without him and the 5.5 points (as of about 8 hours before tipoff) is definitely a solid value in this spot. Philadelphia has won 2 of last 3 at home and the lone loss was by a single point (to the Clippers) and the Sixers were robbed by a foul that wasn't called in the final seconds. The point is Philly could easily be 3-0 L3 at home. Also, their loss just before the 15-point win over Toronto was a defeat by just 3 points at Cleveland. So the Sixers are already gearing up for Embiid's return and they catch the Thunder at a great time for an upset. Oklahoma City is off B2B wins over Phoenix and then at New York (by 1 point) and they have a tougher match-up with Boston on deck. The Thunder might underestimate the Embiid-less Sixers in this one and Philly has great upset potential here with the way they match up with the Thunder. If they do lose, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. Grab the points with the home dog. PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Monday OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics @ 7 ET - The Hornets scored 118 points yesterday but also allowed 130! Charlotte is now hosting a Boston team off a low-scoring win but, prior to that win, the Celtics had allowed an average of 115 ppg (not including OT) in their 3 games leading into that one. Boston has been scoring well as they averaging 120.5 ppg (not including OT) in their last dozen games. Celtics have gone 10-2 in this stretch and will be willing to play at a faster pace and keep the scoring up against a downtrodden Hornets team. Charlotte has actually scored an average of 109 ppg in their last 12 home games. So don't be surprised if this game, given the above numbers, gets into the 120-105 range at least! That said, with this total in the 217 to 218 range as of early game day morning, there is no hesitation in getting involved here. OVER the total in Charlotte

NBA Sunday OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 6:10 ET - The Sixers are a double digit favorite with good reason, of course, in this one. However, Philly has lost 5 of 6 games and has allowed 109 ppg during this stretch. That puts this one potentially at 120-109 given the 11 point spread on this one. I am not saying that happens of course but I am showing this is as an example of why we have some wiggle room here considering this total is in the 217 range as for 6 hours before tipoff. The Sixers need to take advantage of facing a weaker foe and get back into the win column and I look for them to push the tempo in this one. The Raptors have lost a dozen games in a row. In this 12-game losing streak they have allowed 119.4 ppg. Given all these numbers, the Sixers should get into the 120 range here but even if they fall to the 115 range the Raptors should score well enough on their home floor to get this one over the rather low total posted here. OVER the total in Toronto

NBA Saturday Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:40 ET - The Bucks will be without Lillard here while the Hawks could have Jalen Johnson back and he has been playing well. Speaking of playing well, Atlanta has been overall as they have won 4 straight including beating Boston twice! The Hawks have won 7 of last 8 home games while the Bucks are on the road and have some injury issues to deal with here also. Some guys are not 100% for sure. Also, Milwaukee has lost 3 straight road games and 5 of last 6. This is a high value home dog spot as the Hawks have been the hotter team of late plus they are the healthier team right now even though they remain without Trae Young of course. Dejounte Murray is off a 44-point game and has scored 28 points or more in 4 of his last 5 games. This is a classic case of long-term metrics getting too much credit compared to the true current situation. As a result, line value that is off the charts good as Hawks stay hot at home while the Bucks road struggles continue. ATLANTA (+)

NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers are fired up after they were robbed by the refs at home against the Clippers and it cost them a win. Of course that does not mean they automatically bounce back with a SU win here. However, it does mean they will give a strong effort and that should be enough for at least the ATS cover in this one. They are getting 8.5 points as of about 6 hours before tipoff for this one and the Cavs seem over-valued here. Even if they get some players back for this one, the  Cavaliers are truly a banged up team right now. Also, though the Sixers have been struggling they are competing hard and Cleveland has not exactly been lighting the world on fire of late. In fact, the Cavs have lost 7 of 10 games and 1 of the wins was by just 5 points. The Sixers are in this one all the way. Philly is only 3-4 SU last 7 games but 2 of the 4 losses by 7 or less points. Huge hungry underdog value here as 76ers come out firing on all cylinders after feeling they were dealt a bad break loss against the Clippers. The Sixers have won 2 of the 3 meetings this season and their only loss was by 3 points in overtime! Grab the generous points here. PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Thursday Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The Pelicans are still without Brandon Ingram. For the Bucks, their big guns are listed as probable for this game and so they are the healthier team in terms of top talent entering this match-up. Milwaukee off a double OT home loss to the Lakers. Note that the Bucks are 5-2 SU this season when off a home loss. Overall, Milwaukee enters this game on a 3-0 run when off a SU loss. The Pelicans are also off a loss but their bounce back is less likely. New Orleans is just 2-2 SU in the 4 games (including the one he got hurt) since Ingram was injured. Also, the Pelicans have lost 4 of 7 at home. The road team is actually 11-5 in the last 16 New Orleans games! The Bucks had won 11 of 15 before the home loss to the Lakers and this is the ideal spot for a bounce back as Ingram had 26 the last time these teams met and the Pelicans still lost the game by 24 points! MILWAUKEE (-)

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +6 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:40 ET - I really want to take the money line here but the 6 points is certainly nice, added insurance but take a good look at this one because the SU trending is quite impressive! The Clippers are only 5-7 SU L12 games. Simply put, LA has just not been playing that well. This is especially true when you look at the teams they have beaten. They beat the Bulls twice but Chicago has a losing record this season. They beat the Blazers twice but Portland is a poor 19-53 this season. So the only other win must have been against a powerhouse, right? Nope, not at all. The other win was over a Rockets team that would not even make the play-in round of the post-season if the season ended today. All of this said, these struggling Clippers are now favored by a half-dozen points against a respectable Sixers team. Of course Philly is without Embiid and yes the Clips have revenge here for the loss to the 76ers in LA last week. However, this line is still far too high in my opinion. The 76ers are happy to be back home as they have played only two home games in the last 2 and 1/2 weeks and yes they won both games. Grab the points here as the value is with the home dog in this one. PHILADELPHIA +6

NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B spot but they have momentum on their side after knocking off the Clippers last night in LA. Also, they only had two players go big minutes in that game so this Philly team will not be as worn out as one might expect in a B2B. Additionally, Sacramento just got back from a trip back east. Yes, the Kings were off yesterday but they had a lot of travel including coming all the way back from Orlando. Also, if you look at the long-term trending of the Kings this season, they do not have a history of blowing teams out. They are only 18-15 SU last 33 games and many of those wins by a single digit margin. In fact, only 9 times in last 33 games have the Kings won the game by double digits. I like this hungry Sixers team in this spot to stay within the inflated number. They have the shooters to hit enough shots from outside to stay within striking distance of Sacramento throughout this game. PHILADELPHIA +9.5

NBA Saturday: Sacramento Kings Money Line +140 @ Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - Great spot to back the Kings off a loss and no points needed either in terms of the system in play for this one. The Kings are a perfect 6-0 SU the last 6 times they were off a loss in which they scored less than 110 points. That trend is in play here after Sacramento lost 109 to 102 at Washington. A loss to a bad Wizards team is an attention-getter for the Kings and I am sure they will respond big here. Yes, Orlando is on a hot streak and has been playing well. However, prior to the win over the Pelicans Thursday, the last 11 Magic wins had come against bad teams like Detroit (2), Charlotte (2), Toronto (2), Brooklyn (2), Washington and Utah. The Jazz are 29-41 and the combined record of those 5 Eastern Conference teams (the 5 worst in the conference) is 90-259. Yes, 90 wins and 259 losses! Now the Magic host a Kings team that is angry off a loss plus is 40-29 this season. Big difference in level of opponent here and I look for an upset win for the road dog in this one. SACRAMENTO +140

NBA New Orleans Pelicans +135 @ Miami Heat @ 8:10 ET - So the Pelicans are in a B2B and have an injury issue with Brandon Ingram being out. However, the Heat have issues too with Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love both out plus Bam Adebayo is questionable. With New Orleans off a loss last night at Orlando, they will be fired up about bouncing back here. The Pelicans are a perfect 3-0 L3 times when off a loss. New Orleans is also a perfect 3-0 L3 times when they are on the road and coming off a loss. Overall, the Pelicans had won 16 of 21 games prior to the loss to the Magic last night. The Heat are off a win at Cleveland but had lost 5 of 7 games before that and the two victories were against a Pistons team that is one of the league's worst. The home team is just 1-5 in Miami's last 6 games and the Heat are coming home off a lengthy road trip. Oftentimes that first game back is the toughest and teams come out a bit flat. Miami is 12-13 against Western Conference teams this season. New Orleans was 16-8 this season against Eastern Conference teams prior to the loss last night. You have an East-West dichotomy here plus the Pelicans are 8 games over .500 in road games this season while the Heat are just 2 games over .500 in home games this season. You can see why we have so much value here with the money line road dog. Grab it! No points needed. NEW ORLEANS +135

NBA Thursday Orlando Magic +120 vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:10 ET - The Pelicans are a short road favorite here and I understand the line but this has opened up a great home dog opportunity I will not pass up. Orlando was a .500 team in late January! They have since gone 17-5! Also, the Magic have won 7 of last 8 home games. As for the Pelicans, I have plenty of respect for them and they have been hot also. However, New Orleans - with very few exceptions - has struggled on the road in most match-ups when facing winning and healthy teams. Orlando is a winning team and is healthy right now and they are playing well. Pelicans have road losses to the Mavericks, Bucks, Celtics, Nuggets, Lakers and Pacers since the calendar flipped the page to 2024. How do the Magic compare to the blended home records of those teams? Well Orlando has 24 home wins this season and those 6 teams have an average of 25.5 home wins this season. You see my point? The Magic at home and healthy are right within range of those teams that the Pelicans have losses to the last couple months when traveling. I am grabbing the home dog value here. OLRANDO +120

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 @ Phoenix Suns @ 10:10 ET - If you look at the board tonight there are 8 games and only 3 of them are match-ups in which both of the teams have a winning record. The Heat / Cavs appears to be an even match-up and Cleveland is favored by about their home court edge. Makes sense. The Celtics are a decent sized favorite over the Bucks but Boston is an insane 31-3 at home this season so that line makes sense as well. This Philly / Phoenix game is the outlier in my opinion. The Suns just have not been playing well enough to justify this large of a line. The Sixers, even while dealing with injuries, remain very scrappy and they have made some changes in their lineup/playing rotation of late that are already starting to pay dividends. That said, the 8.5 points here appears to be on the high side. The Suns have won just 6 of 13 games and the average margin of victory in the 6 wins, not including OT points, was just 6.5 points. Phoenix just has NOT been blowing teams away of late. The Sixers are just 5-5 L10 games but 4 of the 5 losses by a single digit margin! Don't be surprised when this one goes down to the wire. PHILADELPHIA +8.5

NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Denver Nuggets @ 9 ET - Yes the Timberwolves have a cluster of injuries at the big man position. However, the last time these teams met Jokic had a solid game for the Nuggets and yet the Wolves still won the game by 22 points. Outside of Jokic, the Nuggets mostly play a "small ball" lineup which is the same type of lineup Minny will be playing here because of injuries to their bigs. So, the point is that Jokic will again "get his" in this game but I don't see that translating to a huge road win here. Minny is tough at home and this is a key divisional battle and they will not just "lay down" here because they are without Towns and Gobert. In fact, you might even see a more feisty effort from the Wolves here as a result! Look for Minnesota to be aggressive here as it is the wounded dog that often bites the hardest. This is just too many points to give the Timberwolves when at home and hosting the defending champs and a division rival. Playing their first home game in two weeks, Minnesota is absolutely going to make the most of it here! They are getting as many as 7.5 points here as of very early game day morning! We'll take it! MINNESOTA (+)

NBA Monday New York Knicks +165 @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - Revenge game for the Knicks as they just at home to the Warriors less than 3 weeks ago. New York has very quietly won 3 straight and 5 of 7 games! They also catch Golden State off a big win over the Lakers too. Prior to that victory the Warriors had lost 3 of 4 and their only win was against a horrible Spurs team - and they also lost to San Antonio in that stretch too! Also, GS actually has lost 3 of last 4 home games so I feel we have exceptional line value with getting the Knicks on the money line at a solid comeback price! New York has been playing great defense and has allowed an average of only 83 ppg last 5 games! Golden State has allowed 116.8 ppg last 5 games! HUGE difference. Now, of course, the Warriors are the better team offensively but we are getting to the time of year when teams win games with defense and I like the Knicks in a revenge spot and catching GS off a key divisional win. No points needed. Knicks win outright. NEW YORK KNICKS +165

NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers will take advantage of a Heat team dealing with a myriad of injuries right now. Yes, Philly is still without Joel Embiid but he is back practicing with the team and spirts are up for the Sixers team right now as they know he'll be back sooner rather than the later. Even without Embiid, the Sixers are the overall healthier club in this match-up plus they are at home. Note that Miami is only 4-5 L9 games and here is the kicker to that! One of the wins was against a slumping Jazz team that has lost 12 of 15 games. The other THREE WINS were against a Pistons team that is one of the worst in the league. Beating those teams and winning AT Philly are vastly different things! Even a wounded Sixers team is far superior to the Pistons and the current version of the Jazz. That said, the home team should win this in solid fashion as they take advantage a Heat team that is dealing with too many banged up guys right now. PHILADELPHIA -2

NBA Sunday Brooklyn Nets +105 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET in Austin, TX - The Spurs are in Austin again tonight rather than home in San Antonio. They are trying to expand their fan base with this and have done it the last two years but it is not their true home and takes away some of the typical home court edge an NBA team would have. Overall San Antonio is one of the worst teams in the league. The Nets have also struggled but they are still a better team than the Spurs. One way to see this is that both team have struggled against winning teams as you would expect. But the Nets (15-11 SU) are much better than the Spurs (7-17 SU) when facing teams with a losing record. Look for Brooklyn to again take advantage of facing a lesser foe tonight. The Nets are off B2B losses but this followed wins in 5 of last 9 games. Conversely, San Antonio has not shown any true signs of life like that. The Spurs have just 4 wins in last 21 games. San Antonio is already thinking ahead to next season. The Nets are running short on time but Atlanta keeps losing so the Nets still have a shot at the #10 seed and a chance to at least get into the play-in portion of the NBA post-season. To stay alive however they must have games like this. As they've done frequently this season, they will take advantage of facing a lesser foe here. BROOKLYN +105

NBA Saturday New York Knicks Money Line +145 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10:10 ET - Home court is nothing special for Sacramento. The Kings are off B2B home wins but this followed losing 9 of last 16 home games! In fact, Sacramento has not won more than 2 straight home games since mid-December! The Knicks are a live dog here! Their defense has been fantastic for an extended stretch now and so you have the defensive edge here with New York. Also, while Knicks are off a win over a bad Portland team, the Kings are off big wins over the Bucks and the division rival Lakers. Sacramento might be a little flat here the way I see it. The Knicks have allowed an average of just 81 points last 4 games. Another interesting thing here is New York is off B2B wins and they have been in this spot 6 times this season and 5 of the 6 times their streak extended to 3 games and many much more. Don't be surprised if this pattern continues and another win streak is building for the Knicks. NEW YORK +145

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz +125 vs Atlanta Hawks @ 9:40 ET - Good home dog value here and no points needed the way I see it. Utah 19-13 at home this season while the Hawks road record is the exact opposite of that this season. Of course the Hawks are also without Trae Young now but they also have additional injury issues entering this one. Utah will be without Markanen again but, prior to a loss to an elite Boston team, the Jazz had won 2 of last 3 home games and the only loss was by just 2 points. Considering the fact that Atlanta is 3-7 SU last 10 road games and Bogdanovic off an ugly game as he is dealing with an illness and is questionable and Trae Young is still out too, the Hawks are a bit over-valued here. Atlanta just looked right past Portland and lost and the same thing could happen here as they underestimate another team as they look forward to their trip to LA to play the Lakers and Clippers plus then they have a tough Suns team next. I expect another sub-par effort from the wounded Hawks here. In their last game Murray had 40 points and no one else topped 13 points. That is not a good sign of where this Atlanta team is right now. The Jazz, though Clarkson won't play tonight, had Clarkson and 2 others all score at least 20 points in their loss to the Celtics. The Jazz are a little bit more of a balanced team and they are at home and they are offering plus money on the money line. I'll take it! UTAH +125

NBA Thursday Portland Trail Blazers +10.5 vs New York Knicks @ 10 ET - Of course the Knicks should win this game SU but I don't see them winning this in a complete blowout. This is their first game on this west coast swing after playing 4 straight home games. Also, the tougher games on this road trip are up next with facing the Kings, Warriors and Nuggets. I just can't see New York being too excited nor too focused on facing this Blazers team they already beat handily two months ago in New York! That said, this spot could be a bit tricky for the Knicks. The Trail Blazers have gone 4-4 SU L8 games. Granted, the wins were against teams that are not on the level of this New York team. However, just getting some SU wins is a confidence boost for a Blazers team having a tough season. Also, some of the players they are missing are close to coming back as well. That is also a positive in terms of creating good vibes and positive energy for the team. I look for them to put up a strong fight on their home floor here and this game will be decided by single digits. PORTLAND +10.5

NBA Wednesday Chicago Bulls +150 @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:40 ET - The Pacers are in a B2B spot and the Bulls are rested but coming off B2B losses including the most recent one at home in UGLY fashion. That set this one up well for a road dog upset in divisional action. I know Indiana has been better in divisional games than Chicago has this season but these two teams are not too far apart in the standings really. Also, before the Bulls lost at LA to the Clippers, they had won 8 of last 10 road games! So Chicago has been sneaky good on the road for many weeks now and is coming off bad home loss and a road loss. So the set up here is truly ideal especially with the Pacers in a back to back. Also, the Bulls have not lost two consecutive road games since late January! Last but certainly not least, Chicago has not lost more than 2 games in a row overall since NOVEMBER! Dating back to that losing streak in November, the Bulls are now a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times when entering a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. No points needed here, look for the Bulls to win this one outright! Each of last 6 Indiana wins have been by 9 or more points so I really don't think the points would help us anyway here but I do love the plus money on this money line testing that 5-0 streak! Let's win big again with that going for 6 in a row. CHICAGO +150

NBA Tuesday Sacramento Kings +120 vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 10 ET - The Kings are at home and off a home loss in which they were held to 109 points. Sacramento is 5-1 SU the last 6 times they entered a game off a loss in which they were held to 109 points or less. Ironically, the lone loss in that 5-1 run was in OT at Milwaukee. So you have a strong angle here plus you have the revenge angle working in your favor as well. Great spot for the Kings. The Bucks are off a road win but had lost 7 of last 12 road games heading into that one. Milwaukee had been better on defense but now they've allowed 122 ppg L3 games and this is the final game of a 4-game road trip so it is also a bit of a tricky spot as many team historically struggle in a spot like this when wrapping up a road trip. Definitely a strong situational edge for the home dog in this one. We'll forego the points and grab the money line. SACRAMENTO +120

NBA Monday Charlotte Hornets +145 @ Detroit Pistons @ 7 ET - I know we could have the Hornets at 3.5 here but, believe it or not, the Pistons only have 1 win this season in a game decided by 4 or less points this season. Also, Charlotte only has 1 loss this season in a game decided by 4 or less points. So, the point is, if this game is tight at the end, it very likely goes the way of the Hornets and so the points do not even matter. We'll go for the bigger plus money return by utilizing the money line here. Note that the Pistons have defeated the Hornets in both games this season but only have 8 wins the rest of this season. Charlotte, despite no wins against league-worst Detroit, have 16 wins against the rest of the NBA. So, the point is the team with TWICE as many wins against the rest of the NBA, is a dog here. Now, of course it makes sense to the betting markets because Detroit is at home here and most people view these teams are nearly equal. However, I like the double revenge aspect and the aforementioned 16-win vs 8-win angle plus the Hornets are the better team defensively and they enter this game off a win which helps from a confidence standpoint. Speaking of confidence, I am confident in the fact no points needed here. CHARLOTTE +145

NBA Sunday Indiana Pacers Money Line +115 @ Orlando Magic @ 6 ET - Someone knows something. Yes, this is one of those games! This line opened around a pick'em and sure enough the Magic are now as high as 2.5 point favorite. Ask yourself this. Why was this line set this way? Exactly! It was an open invite to take the Magic which is why we are doing the exact opposite, of course, and grabbing the Pacers! Note that Orlando is off a loss and had won 13 of 16 games prior to that plus they are at home for this one. Conversely, Indiana has lost 4 of 6 games! All this yet this line was a pick'em? Indeed this is a trap line for the betting public and I am going on the other side of the move and we do not even need the points. Outright win for Indiana here. The Pacers have double revenge here from losing both games this season with the Magic and those two games were in Indiana. The road team has now won 3 straight in this match-up as the final meeting last season was a Pacers road win at Orlando as well. Look for the road team to make it 4 in a row and grab the money line road dog in this one! This line was set at a pick'em originally for a reason. Now we take advantage here and grab the underdog value. INDIANA +115

NBA Saturday Portland Trail Blazers +130 vs Toronto Raptors @ 10:10 ET - The Blazers are in a B2B spot but they are 9-10 SU against Eastern Conference teams. Toronto is only 7-17 SU against Western Conference foes! So the point is, even though you are talking about two teams having rough seasons, the Blazers have favored much better in non-conference action than the Raptors. Also, Portland has the homecourt edge in this one. The Trail Blazers have won twice in last five games. Toronto has lost 7 straight road games against Western Conference foes. Look for that run to reach 8 in a row in this one! Grab the home dog value here. No points needed! PORTLAND +130

NBA Friday Charlotte Hornets +130 @ Washington Wizards @ 7 ET - I know the Hornets have issues of their own but this is more about a play against Washington. Many people know that the Wizards are on an 0-16 SU losing streak but many may not realize that Washington has not won a home game in 2024! Indeed the Wizards last win at home was back in late December and they have since lost 16 home games in a row as well! So this pick is testing dual 16-0 runs in terms of play against angles. Washington is only favored here because they are at home but they actually have won only 3 home games all season! Conversely, the Hornets have won 7 road games this season including 4 since the calendar flipped the page to 2024. The point is that we are talking about solid line value here and in terms of solid SU trending so no points needed. We'll again grab the money line in this one and look for another outright upset. Charlotte has lost 5 straight but they faced a rather tough schedule and this followed a solid 5-1 SU run L6 games! I am going to challenge the Wizards to finally win a game and note that the Hornets are the better team defensively and they have gone 4-7 in divisional games while the Wizards are 2-11 in divisional games this season. Road dog is the play here and no points needed! CHARLOTTE +130

NBA Thursday Detroit Pistons +115 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7 ET - This is a great set-up. No points needed in my opinion and we'll grab the plus money on the money line here. The Nets are without Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson for this game. Also, Ben Simmons - as per usual - is also out for this game. Though Simmons hardly plays, Brooklyn sure could use him tonight with Thomas and Johnson being out. Another key here is the set up as the Nets are off a big divisional win over the 76ers. Though Brooklyn has won 3 of 4, the victories came against the Sixers without Embiid and Maxey and the Hawks without Trae Young. The Pistons have had a very rough season but there is a reason this line is priced this way. Don't let the number fool you. The home dog is the play here for the reasons above and I am expecting the outright upset. We'll grab the money line. DETROIT +115

NBA Wednesday Sacramento Kings Money Line +125 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:40 ET - Great set-up here. The Lakers are off a big home win versus Thunder. The Kings are off a frustrating home loss to the Bulls. As a result, Sacramento is not in a good mood here and they are the healthier team heading into this match-up also. Additionally, the Kings have won 6 of the last 7 meetings including 3 straight at LA. These teams are right next to each other in the standings and I love the situational aspect here. Sacramento is 8-2 SU this season when off a home loss. One of those 2 losses was at Denver when in this situation. The Nuggets are 24-6 at home this season and the defending champs. So in the other 9 games, including a big when hosting Denver in this situation, the Kings have gone 8-1 SU! The Lakers are certainly not the Nuggets and don't have a home court edge like Denver. LA has been strong at home this season but the Kings have not been phased in this building in the least. In fact they also just beat the Clippers in the same venue about a week ago. The Kings long-term success over the Lakers continues and we do not even need the points here. SACRAMENTO +125

NBA Tuesday OVER 207.5 in Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - This total has dropped from its opener and this is a classic case where the long-term history is being given far more credit than the current trending. Yes, the Hornets are certainly known for low-scoring games but they have been playing better of late and scoring better. Also, being on their home floor makes a difference too. At the same time, Orlando enters this game on a 3-game winning streak in which they have averaged 112 points per game. The Magic also are looking to make up for a dud though in their most recent road game. Additionally, the first meeting between these teams totaled 247 points and the Hornets won that one right here in Charlotte. So the Magic, leaders in the SE Division, also have revenge on their minds here. The Hornets are allowing 116.5 ppg last 4 games but also have scored an average of 114 ppg in their last 6 home games. That included facing the Bucks and defensive-minded Memphis and the Lakers too. The point is that Charlotte can score decently at home and they are being under-valued here in that regard. At the same time, revenge-minded Orlando should go off here as well! The Magic have won 8 of 10 and, not including OT points of course, have averaged 114 ppg in the victories. This total is just too low. OVER 207.5 in Charlotte

NBA Monday OVER 211.5 in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Portland Trailblazers @ 8 ET - The Wolves off the 1-point low-scoring loss last night on their home floor and will go all out here against a defenseless foe. Of course that is why they are such a big favorite here and I like the fact that Minnesota has averaged 122 points per game in their 3 meetings with Portland this season. The line on this one is 14 so that would put this game at 122 to 108 if Minny hits their average against the Blazers and if the odds makers are right (as they so often are) with their assessment of the proper spread here. That would put this game in the 230 range and honestly I would not be surprised to see that and for sure, we have a lot of wiggle room with the total posted on this one as you can see. Look for an up tempo game from the T-wolves at home after that grinder last night. They will take advantage of a weaker foe and this one turns into a free-flowing game with plenty of points - yet again - between these teams. All 3 meetings this season between these teams have totaled at least 209 and given the situation here we should eclipse that for sure, just as the last two meetings have eclipsed that as well. The situation boosted by Wolves off a low-scoring loss and Blazers off a confidence-boosting rare OT road win! OVER 211.5 in Minnesota

NBA Saturday OVER 221.5 in Toronto Raptors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 6 ET - The Hornets are off loss in which they scored 114 points and they have been much more competitive recently. That said, look for them to score plenty and hang close with this Raptors team favored by 8 points in this one. Toronto should score very well here but is not known for defense. Toronto has allowed at least 119 points in 7 of last 8 games! They allowed 124 ppg in those 7 games. You can see why I am expecting an improving Charlotte team to score well given those numbers. Also, 2 of the 3 meetings between these teams totaled at least 235 points this season. Toronto has averaged 121.5 ppg scoring last 6 games. Given all of these numbers you can see why I am expecting at least 230s in this one. We get a low total here because of Charlotte's long-term reputation but look at their short-term plus look at the long-term of these Raptors. This game will be wide-open! OVER 221.5 in Toronto

NBA Saturday Denver Nuggets Pick -110 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:40 ET - The Lakers have been playing well at home this season including 4 straight wins. However, the Nuggets have won 5 straight overall and are the much stronger team in this match-up. They just beat Miami in most recent game even though Murray was only able to play 14 minutes. Even if he does not play tonight I still like Denver in this spot. But don't be surprised if he does suit up for facing the Lakers here. The Nuggets have 3 straight wins over solid teams in their 5-game run. Although the Lakers have won 4 straight at home, the last 3 wins were against the Wizards, Pistons and Spurs. Those are the 3 worst teams in the NBA with a combined record of 30-149 on the season! Now they face a 40-19 Denver team that is one of the top teams in the NBA and the defending champs. The Nuggets have beaten the Lakers 3 straight time and in both match-ups this season and now they make it 4 in a row and get the season 3-game sweep over this over-rated LA bunch. DENVER Pick -110

NBA Friday Top Play OVER 212.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:10 ET - Tough break for those had the over, like we did, in last night's Hornets vs Bucks match-up. That game had 121 points at the half but then a ridiculous 89 points the rest of the way for a tough loss for those holding over tickets. Tonight should make up for that. I know Charlotte has a lot of low-scoring results but this Philly team has 2 road games on deck and they are coming off an ugly road loss at Boston. The 76ers will be ready to run plenty here at home as they continue play a different type of basketball with Embiid sidelined. As mentioned in prior write-ups, the Sixers traded away defense and grit for more offense and shooting when they were recently active before the trade deadline. Of course in a tough divisional game like they just had against the Celtics the results of that don't necessarily show up. But in a game like this hosting a Hornets team with one of the worst records in the NBA, you will see plenty of attacking from the Sixers offense here. Tobias Harris snaps his scoring slump with a big game against a road-adverse Hornets team. Charlotte had allowed 120.5 ppg L6 road games prior to rare low-scoring games at Portland and Golden State. That was followed by a home and home set with Bucks in which the allowed an average of 117 ppg. The Sixers have allowed 118 ppg since Embiid has been out with the injury after the Warriors game in late January. Sixers will play fast tonight and force the tempo as they look for a big home blowout. Take advantage of the line value as this total has dropped from its opener. OVER 212.5 in Philadelphia

NBA Thursday OVER 216 in Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7 ET - The Hornets just got destroyed by the Bucks in Milwaukee by a score of 123 to 85. Now the rematch is in Charlotte and I fully expect the Hornets to score much better in this one on their home floor. However, they will again struggle to stop Milwaukee here as the Bucks are showing signs of finally getting it going under new head coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks have won 3 straight and scored an average of 118 points per game last 3 games. The Hornets also had been looking better prior to that ultra ugly shooting performance at Milwaukee. Prior to that, Charlotte had won 5 of 6 games. Also, the Hornets are happy to be back home after a 3 game road trip. Note that the Hornets have scored an average of 116.8 ppg last 5 home games. You can see, based on the Hornets better play of late and scoring numbers at home coupled with the Bucks recent win streak and better scoring as well, this total is just far too low in the 216 range. The Bucks are a 12-point favorite so 216 total means a final in the 114 to 102 range but, based on all of the above, both teams should top that number. In fact, Milwaukee has scored an average of 124 points in their 3 meetings with the Hornets this season. OVER 216 in Charlotte

NBA Wednesday OVER 209.5 in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:10 ET - This total has been dropping and, simply put, it has become too low. We only need 210 to be a winner here. Lets say the oddsmakers are correct, as they so often are, about the spread of 12 in this game. In that case, a total of 210 would mean a final of 111 to 99. Do you really think the Wolves are only to score 111 at home here? I sure don't! Memphis has allowed 121 ppg in going 0-4 L4 road games. But also look for the Grizzlies to bounce back after an ultra lousy home performance in most recent game in which they scored only 86 points. Prior to that one, Memphis had enjoyed a 3-game stretch in which they averaged 110 ppg. So you can see my 121 to 110 range with a Minny win would make sense here given those numbers. I do feel we have a lot of wiggle room here given this low total in the 210 range here. Just how much defense is Minny going to play here when they have tougher games against Sacramento and the Clippers on deck? Also, the Timberwolves have already won all 3 match-ups with Memphis this season. I just don't expect their defensive intensity to be at it's greatest here. Also, those 3 games in the season series have all totaled at least 216 points and averaged 222 points per game. We have got some solid line value here with this low total. Take advantage! OVER 209.5 in Minnesota

NBA Tuesday OVER 230.5 in Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers lost a lot of defense and grit in the recent trades. But Philly is still a very talented team, even with Embiid out, and they can pile up points in the right situation. This is the right situation! The Sixers are facing a division rival they will struggle to stop and this game should turn into a "track meet" up and down the court with quick scoring opportunities. Philadelphia will bounce back from a tough shooting performance in most recent game for some of their bigger scorers. Boston is going to be aggressive on their home floor as they have won 8 straight games and 10 of 11 and they have done it with a lot of offense. Boston averaged 124.5 ppg in those 10 games. The line on this game is currently a -12. That would put this final at about 125 to 113 and honestly I am expecting even a little more as this one gets into the 240s just like the most recent meeting game. In that one the Sixers were without Embiid then too plus Maxey missed with an illness. That game still got into the mid-240s. That was even with Tatum getting ejected late in the 3rd quarter of that game. Boston still scored 125 in that game. Look for plenty of points again in this one as Maxey now available for the Sixers in the rematch. OVER 230.5 in Boston

NBA Monday Sacramento Kings (-) vs Miami Heat @ 10:10 ET - This is a revenge game for the Kings after they lost at Miami 115 to 106 on the final day of January. In that game, Butler and Richardson scored nearly half the points (55) and neither are playing tonight. Also, two other starters - Herro and Rozier - are questionable tonight. Herro had 14 points (plus 8 rebounds and 8 assists) and Rozier had 10 assists in that game. With a much more winnable game tomorrow at Portland and Butler coming back tomorrow, one has to wonder if the Heat might be very conservative with their injury situation here rest Herro and Rozier too. Even if those guys play they are for sure missing Butler and Richardson. I just don't think Miami has enough to hang around here despite the favorable scheduling situation. Yes the Heat have been off and Kings in a B2B after the big divisional win over the Clippers down in LA. However, prior to a 4 point loss in most recent game, 11 of last 12 Miami losses have come by 8 or more points! Those dozen losses by an average of 14 points! So unless you think the very short-handed Heat win this outright, is there really any value in the points? In this case the odds say no and I expect Kings to roll by double digits as they have just too much offense for Miami in this one. The number is currently as low as a 7 as of 16 hours before tipoff! SACRAMENTO (-)

NBA Sunday OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - I know Trae Young is out for the Hawks but that is why this total is down to as low as a 225.5 as of 9 hours before tipoff. However, did you know that of the 5 games Young has missed this season those games totaled at least 229 four times! The fact is this Hawks team knows only one way to play no matter who is on the floor. This Atlanta team not known for defense and they try to win games with a lethal and quick-strike offensive attack. They know they are catching division rival Orlando here not only in a B2B spot but playing the 3rd game in 4 nights. I look for the Hawks to try and run them right out of of the arena in this one! Yes, Orlando is known for lower-scoring games but they have still allowed an average of 111 points per game last 7 games not including OT scoring of course. Now they face one of the teams in the NBA that tends to get into the highest-scoring games. That said you should be able to safely count on the 120 range here and this line is around a pick'em. In other words this one getting into the 240 range should certainly not be a shock. Hawks games have averaged 245 this season and, as noted above, even when Trae Young is out, the points have still piled up and results have been similar. OVER the total in Atlanta

NBA Friday OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 10:10 ET - This total is in the 229.5 range as of very early game day morning. We get some value because of the Hornets low-scoring ways long-term. This Charlotte team is playing much better of late and is off a road win at Utah to jump start their 2nd half of the season. The Warriors also off a big win versus the Lakers last night. What I like about the line value with this total here is that both teams scored big last night yet each game stayed under the total. Now they are matched up, loaded with confidence, and it is a non-conference match-up in the 2nd day of a B2B where defensive intensity will not be at its greatest! Note that the Hornets have now won 4 straight games and averaged 116 ppg in this 4-game stretch. Charlotte is about a 14 point dog here so that would put this game at 130-116 if they hit their recent scoring average. But can Warriors really get to 130 here? Yes, it is is not beyond the realm of reality for sure! Golden State is averaging 124 ppg L7 home games - not including OT points of course - and now they face one of the overall weaker teams in the league. Overall, GS is averaging 128 points scored per game last 7 games - home or away. Given all of these numbers you can see why I am expecting 240s here and certainly we should see at least 230s. The Hornets will not want to play fast necessarily but the Warriors, on their home floor, will absolutely force them too. But with Hornets playing with more confidence than usual on the offensive end, they will surprise with scoring well here. OVER the total in Golden State

NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers -115 vs New York Knicks @ 7 ET - The Knicks are still without Anunoby and Randle. The Sixers are without Embiid of course but New York down two key players. Unsurprisingly, New York is starting to struggle not having these two guys. The Knicks lost 4 straight before the All-Star break. The Sixers lost at home to Miami before the break but had won 2 straight games - both on the road - prior to that. Now veteran Lowry expected to make his debut in hometown Philly for the 76ers and don't be surprised if the veteran outperforms expectations as he is rejuvenated by being back home and now playing for the Sixers. This is a bargain price on the Sixers as, until the Knicks get healthy again, they are just not the same team that had been streaking red hot. Philly takes advantage of catching rival NY at the right time in the right place! PHILADELPHIA -115

NBA Thursday Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:30 ET - Current line on this one is 11.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff. With the Grizzlies off a rare win and the Bucks off an ugly home loss, it might seem like the perfect spot to back Milwaukee. However, Memphis has been scrappy even in their losses and I just not see them getting totally blown out at home here in this one. Note that Memphis is only 4-9 SU last 13 games but only two of those defeats were by more than 10 points. In other words, at the current +11.5 being offered here, the Grizzlies would be 11-2 ATS last 13 games! Now look at the Bucks road performances too and, overall, this team has not exactly been setting the world on fire since coach Doc Rivers took over. Note that Milwaukee is only 4-7 SU last 11 road games and 2 of those wins were against a bad Detroit team and NO the Bucks did not win either game by double digits! In fact, Milwaukee's two road wins in this stretch, other than the two over the Pistons, were by 4 against a bad San Antonio team and by 12 at Dallas. So the only truly ultra impressive Bucks road win since the calendar flipped the page to 2024 is just barely above the number posted on this game. I like our chances here when you consider that the win over the Mavericks was the only truly impressive road game in 11 tries for Milwaukee in 2024. Give me the big points here with a scrappy home underdog. 10* MEMPHIS (+)

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - Sixers out for revenge here from a 4-point loss at Miami earlier this season. Also, the last time these teams met in Philly, the Heat crushed them by nearly 30 points! The Sixers have a great shot at avenging both these defeats right here right now. The Heat are hurting with a couple of injuries plus Jimmy Butler is out on personal leave. To make this situation even more perfect, the short-handed Heat played last night at Milwaukee. Not only that, they smashed the Bucks! They did it by shooting a ridiculous high-percentage from 3-point land in that one. On a B2B situation and also playing with a shorter bench than usual because of missing 3 players for this one, the Heat will struggle with shooting here and likely also fade as the game goes on. Conversely, the Sixers - though without Embiid and Harris - at least are well-rested here. Also, they will have Kyle Lowry on the floor for this one and the veteran is making his home-coming in Philly and played his college ball at Villanova. Don't be surprised if he plays well in what will be an emotional homecoming game for the veteran. The Sixers have been on a home losing streak but they are getting adjusted now with Payne and Hield already becoming solid contributors and Council has been playing well as a role player. Oubre coming off another solid game and Maxey is an All-Star and this Sixers team now won B2B games including beating a tough Cavaliers team at Cleveland. Now it is time to get the home winning going again and they catch the Heat at the perfect time to get a big home win before the All-Star break. Note that Miami is off a win but had lost 9 of 13 games heading into that one. Yes, the 76ers had struggled recently without Embiid but they are starting to figure things out and have the situational edges in this one plus home court. This line is in the 3.5 range as of early game day morning and this is a bargain number! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Tuesday Oklahoma City Thunder (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:30 ET - Oklahoma City is laying about 3 points in this one as of 13 hours before tipoff. Overall, as you can tell by the records too, the Thunder are the stronger team. However, the Magic do have the home court edge here. However, what I really like about this play is the fact Orlando has another game on deck against a conference foe, the Knicks tomorrow. Conversely, for the Thunder it is their final game before the break. OKC wants to go into the break with another win! In fact, lets talk about the "another win" theory as it relates to both teams here. The Magic enter this game on a 2-game winning streak but, other than the surprising 9-game winning streak Orlando had earlier this season, they have only had one other 3-game winning streak this season! When the Magic enter a game on exactly a 2-game winning streak they have failed to stretch it 3 games 5 of the 7 times this season! Make that 6 of 8 after this one! The Thunder enter this one off a single win and there has been only one time this entire season they have had just a single standalone win and that was way back in October. In other words, the odds based on season-long trending here certainly favor a Thunder win! Orlando has lost 3 of last 5 games at home against team with a winning record. they are not unbeatable here against quality opposition by any stretch of the imagination. Also, Orlando is just 10-10 SU in non-conference action while the Thunder are 14-4 SU in non-conf action! The better team in the better situation and on the road so the number of points is manageable. Great spot here to take advantage. Lay it! OKLAHOMA CITY (-)

NBA Monday OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - As mentioned in another recent totals writeup involving Philly, the Sixers added Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne at the trade deadline. Hield is a sharpshooter and they needed a 3-point specialist like him in the worst way. Both he and Payne have already had 20-point games since recently coming on board. However, the key here is all the guys Philly gave up in trades to get guys like Hield and Payne as the Sixers lost a lot of toughness and defense. They are absolutely a different team defensively today than they were just less than a week ago. Of course still without Embiid, the interior defense of the 76ers is already an issue right now. Long-term Philly has been in a bad pattern of allowing too many points...even when Embiid was still playing. Over their last 11 games the Sixers are allowing 124 ppg! Now they are visiting a red hot Cavaliers team that has won 9 straight games and scored an average of 119 ppg in their last 11 games. The Sixers are playing more of a small ball style since the trade and plus being without Embiid. They still have scorers like Maxey and Harris plus guys like Oubre and Council also capable of getting in the 20 point range. But they just do not have size and are lacking interior defense. The Cavs will surely exploit this and yes they get involved in some low-scoring battles at time but look at what Cleveland has done in recent home games! The Cavaliers have scored an average of 129 ppg in their last 4 home games. 5 of L6 Sixers games have totaled more than the 229 range currently set on tis games as of about 10 hours before tipoff. We'll see 230s here at least and truly I would not be surprised to see 240+ given all of the above. OVER the total in Cleveland

NBA Sunday OVER 239 in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Sacramento Kings @ 3:10 ET - The Thunder off ugly loss at Dallas last night. They will bounce back here at home and they have revenge against the Kings. However, this Sacramento team comes in running hot and they are high on confidence right. The Kings just knocked off the Nuggets and they have won 7 of 10 games. Sacramento has averaged 124 ppg last 5 games. The Kings however, prior to the huge win over Denver, had allowed an average of 126.5 ppg last 4 games. The Thunder have allowed 135 ppg last two games. The last game between these teams totaled 251 points. Sacramento will look to push the pace here knowing they are the fresher team after a night off and catching OKC in a B2B spot. The Kings have scored at least 120 points in 8 of 11 games. The Thunder are favored by about 4 points here for a reason. That would put this game in the 125 to 120 range and I am expecting at least that here. This one gets well into the 240s. OVER 239 in Oklahoma City

NBA Saturday Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - This is a bargain price in the -4 range on Philly as of 10 hours before tipoff. Yes the 76ers are struggling but they got Payne and Hield both into action last night and now this is their 2nd game with both on the floor. Also, Maxey should be back for this one but, even if he is not, look at the value in this match-up! Washington has the WORST home record in the NBA as they are just 3-22 SU at home this season. This is a value spot to grab a talented Sixers team that, though without Embiid and dealing with some injury issues, is still a far superior team to this Wizards team. Also, the Sixers have won 4 straight over the Wizards. All 4 wins were by at least 5 points and the average margin of victory was 21 points! More of the same on the way here in a road rout! Make no mistake the Sixers have struggled but the Wizards are having a very rough season and each of their last 29 losses have been by at least 4 points which is the line currently available in the marketplace as of 10 hours before tipoff. PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Friday OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers added Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne at the trade deadline. Hield is a sharpshooter and they needed a 3-point specialist like him in the worst way. Even if Hield does not play tonight, a big key here is all the guys Philly gave up in trades yesterday. They lost a lot of toughness and defense. They are absolutely a different team defensively today than they were just 24 to 48 hours ago. Of course still without Embiid, the interior defense of the 76ers is already an issue right now. Long-term Philly has been a bad pattern of allowing too many points...even when Embiid was still playing. Over their last 9 games the Sixers are allowing 125 ppg! Now they are hosting a Hawks team that has allowed 128.4 ppg last 10 games and, of course, this is not including OT points. Atlanta is all about play on the offensive end and with the 76ers currently having played more small ball of late, they have been giving up big point totals as well. The value is there with this one likely to get into the 250s given the numbers above as well as the post-trade situation. Not including OT points of course, the 3 meetings between these teams have averaged 243 ppg this season. That is right about where this total is as of 13 hours before tipoff. However, this total should be even higher when you consider the factors noted above and the recent trending of these two teams. The Hawks have had 8 straight games total at least 242 points and those 8 games, again not including OT, have averaged 258.5 ppg. We'll see 250s here at least. OVER the total in Philadelphia

NBA Thursday OVER 224 in Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - With Cleveland in a back to back and Brooklyn missing a few players for this one, this total has ticked down. The result is line value on the over. Note that the Cavaliers are a red hot 15-1 last 16 games. Being in a B2B here will not slow them down. Cleveland is off a low-scoring win at Washington yesterday but the game still hit 220 which is not far from tonight's total. The Cavaliers, prior to scoring only 114 against the Wizards, had scored an average of 121 ppg their last 10 games. Thursday's line is a -6 at Brooklyn. Could this game end 121-115 given these numbers? Absolutely and I do expect Brooklyn to bounce back at home off a couple of low-scoring home losses. Knowing the Cavs are in a back to back spot, the Nets will likely elect to push the tempo a little bit more in this one and wear down Cleveland as the game goes on. Even with guys out, the Nets still have plenty of scoring firepower with guys like Bridges, Thomas, Dinwiddie and Claxton. Also, O'Neale has been used more the past two games and averaged 16.5 ppg. The Nets scored 60 points in the 2nd half of their home loss to Dallas Tuesday and they will start faster this time around after a slow start versus the Mavs in that game. 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games have totaled at least 226 points and the Nets had some high-scoring performances in those. They bounce back off the B2B home losses but the Cavaliers stay red hot and that ultimately pushes this game over the total and into the 230s per my projections here. OVER 224 in Brooklyn

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers lost the last meeting a week ago and that is when Kuminga fell on Embiid's knee and the latter is now out for 6 to 8 weeks recovering from surgery. Embiid was already hobbled in that game but that finished him off. That is part of the line value here. This line is all the way up to a 4.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff and it is just too much. Embiid had a horrible game when these teams met last week and the Sixers were also without All-Star Maxey in that game. So we are truly getting some line value here by going against an over-rated Warriors team that just does not travel well. They were horrible on the road last season but then shockingly started this season 5-1 on the road. Sure enough, their normal pattern has resumed and they have gone just 4-11 in their road games since then. Here they face a Sixers team that is off B2B home losses after starting the season 17-6 in home games! Philly is without Embiid but the Warriors also have some injury concerns entering this game as well. Also, Golden State off a win at Brooklyn but the Warriors have not won B2B road games since that 5-1 road run to start the season 3 months ago! As for the Sixers, they have only lost 3 consecutive home games one time this season and that also was all the way back in November as well. The point is we have quite a few strong trends in our favor here plus I also like the situational value here! I expect a huge effort from Maxey and the home team in this one in front of a raucous Philly crowd out for revenge in this one. PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8 ET - The Wolves are the much stronger team and this is a reasonable spread to lay. Consider that the Bulls are 8-8 L16 games which does not sound that bad but the only winning team they beat is the Houston Rockets. The other 7 wins were against bad teams like Charlotte (3) and Portland, Memphis, Toronto and San Antonio. As for the Timberwolves, like Chicago, they also have a recent win over Houston and actually beat them twice during their current 11-6 run. The difference between Minny's wins and the Bulls wins however is the fact that Minnesota also has beaten Dallas, OKC, Brooklyn, the Clippers and Orlando during this solid run. Until Chicago truly proves they can step up against top tier competition, that is the big difference between these teams. Also, the T-Wolves are the much healthier team entering this match-up. This line is currently a 5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Lay it! MINNESOTA (-)

NBA Monday OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:10 ET - This total is in the 242.5 range as of 11 hours before tipoff. Philly is without Embiid now and that really opens things up in the paint. They tend to play more of a small ball fast paced style when Embiid is not available. That means plenty of scoring both ways! As for the Mavericks, Irving is probable tonight and Doncic is questionable. I expect both to play in this game but either way I do like the over plenty in this one. Note that the Mavericks have allowed an average of 125 ppg last 12 games so don't let the big total scare you away here! The 76ers have allowed 125 ppg last 7 games. The line on this is around a pick'em. In other words 126-125 type game here is not only possible it is probable given numbers like this. Look for both teams to get into the 125 to 130 range here in a typical wide-open non-conference affair played with plenty of pace and continued struggles defensively from both clubs. OVER the total in Philadelphia

NBA Sunday Charlotte Hornets (+) vs Indiana Pacers @ 6 ET - The Pacers have a number of banged up players for this one. Yes, they won by 31 when these teams met in Indiana but they outscored the Hornets by 30 from three point land in that one! Ridiculously hot shooting for the Pacers was the difference in that game. I know it may seem tough to play on a team that has lost 6 in a row and is having a tough season but I am happy to challenge the Pacers to win this game by double digits over the Hornets! Note that Charlotte is the much healthier team and they are at home and the Pacers are on a 4-8 SU run. In those dozen games, Indiana had only 1 win by more than 6 points! This is a tricky scheduling spot for Indiana too because it is a 1-game road trip before B2B home games. Could the Pacers "mail it in" here against a Charlotte team they blasted in the first meeting? I absolutely believe that will be the case and the Hornets will be the hungrier team here at home and the Pacers health issues keep this one from turning into a complete rout. This one decided by single digits. CHARLOTTE (+)

NBA Sunday OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic @ 3 ET - The Pistons expected to have Cade Cunningham back for this one. The Magic scored 123 points the last time they faced Detroit. The Pistons did not score well in that one versus Orlando but they are back at home for this rematch. Detroit has scored at least 120 points in 3 straight games! The Pistons have allowed 122 ppg their last 9 games. Orlando is known for lower-scoring games but the Magic are facing a Pistons team that does not play well defensively but is at home and has been scoring well of late. This one has over written all over it. The Magic off a tight win at tough Minnesota plus have a big divisional game on deck at Miami. In other words, the Orlando defensive play is not likely to be at its best here against the worst team in the league. As of 8 hours before gametime, this total in the 228 range which is a great value. OVER the total in Detroit

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 6:10 ET - Yes, the 76ers are without Embiid right now but Maxey is back and lighting things up on the statsheet. Also, this as much a play against Brooklyn as it is a play on Philly. Note that the Nets have lost 75% of their games since mid-December as they are on a 6-18 SU run. Not only that, Brooklyn had 2 of the 6 wins against a bad Detroit team and also a pair of recent wins against currently slumping Houston and Utah teams. So this line is basically saying that because Embiid is out, the 76ers are about the same level of team as the Nets. I completely disagree with current market assessment that on a neutral court these teams are about equal. Yes, even without Embiid, the Sixers are stronger than Brooklyn. Also, the Nets have lost 9 of last 11 road games and one of the only two wins was against the worst team, Pistons, in the entire league! Now the Sixers are back at home where they have won 11 of 14 games and this is a very reasonable number on Philly which has come down from about a half-dozen when it first came out. As of 10 hours before tipoff, this line is in the -4 range. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Friday OVER 221 in Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 9:10 ET - Sharpe is still out for the Blazers but what is interesting is that Portland did struggle offensively in the first game without him but what about since then? The Trail Blazers are actually 5-4 SU last 9 games and in their last 10 games without him they did average 113 points per game NOT including OT points of course. Denver is favored by about a dozen points here so that puts this game at 125 to 113 which is well above the 221 total here. I am aware that Jokic is questionable but, if he does not play, a potential small approach here for the Nuggets could serve them well here. That's because the Blazers are playing with a little more confidence now and willing to run and gun and that could play right into Denver's hands in a potential home rout. Statistically, when at home and off a loss, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 110 ppg. In other words, when coming off a loss and playing on their home floor, Denver has shown a propensity to rely more on their offense than defense in terms of bouncing back! The Nuggets are 5-0 L5 home games and average 119.4 during this winning streak at home. Again, look at the spread here, and if Denver hits 120 and wins by 12 that still puts this one into the upper 220s. I am expecting 230s here based on all of the above and the situation. OVER 221 in Denver

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 215 in Memphis Grizzlies vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8 ET - When you look at Memphis and the injury situation then of course you start thinking about a tough time scoring points. However, too much emphasis is being placed on that here and not enough on what the Cavaliers are capable of! Also, the Grizzlies are highly unlikely to again make just 30 of 80 from the field like they did in most recent game. Cleveland tends to play higher-scoring games and I could see this game being rather wide-open. Remember too that Memphis had scored 107.5 ppg in their 4 games prior to that loss. As for the Cavs, they have scored big in winning 11 of their last 12 games. The Cavaliers also have allowed 114 ppg their last 4 games. How amped up defensively do you really think the Cavs are going to be facing a Grizzlies team that is enduring a very rough season? I just can not foresee much effort here from Cleveland in terms of defensive intensity. Instead look for more of a run and gun approach in this non-conference affair and that should yield plenty of points. The current spread on this one is 8 and that puts this final at 111-103 in terms of the total posted on this game. But do you really think the Cavs are only going to get to 111 here? They have averaged 120 ppg last 13 games and now face a struggling opponent. In other words, you can see why I love the value with the low total posted on this one! 10* OVER 215 in Memphis

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 215.5 in Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - The first meeting totaled 211 and the next one 195 and the next one 214 (not including OT of course). That said, I do understand that this game has a low total on it. However, it opened up at 218 for a reason and is now down to 215.5 and I love the situational value here with the over. The Bulls are coming off a loss and have averaged 118.5 ppg the last 4 times when off a loss. Also, Chicago (not including OT of course) has seen 8 of last 10 games all total more than 220 points! Charlotte is off a low-scoring loss to New York but, prior to this, the Hornets had one ugly game against the Sixers but their other 6 recent games saw them average 116 points! Also, Charlotte is allowing an average of 125 points last 5 games. Prior to the low-scoring loss to the Knicks, 8 of last 10 Hornets games have totaled at least 219 points. Again, you can see the value here with the low number and I love getting additional value on a total when the line has moved further down in situations where it was already quite low to begin with. 10* OVER 215.5 in Charlotte

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - I took the over last night in the Sixers game because even if Embiid missed that would mean more of a "small ball" type of game and I liked the Blazers long-term scoring trends at home as I noted in the write-up. I certainly was not shocked that Embiid did not play because he and the Sixers caught flak, including getting the attention the league office, by him not playing the prior game at Denver. From a Philly perspective it was essentially a "see, he really is hurt" statement by having him miss at Portland. I really expect both he and Maxey will return tonight. Even if they do not (though I certainly expect at least one will), note that the Sixers are in a situation that has not lost since November of 2021! Indeed that was the last time the Sixers have had a losing streak of more than 3 games. Since that point in time, Philly is 6-0 SU when they enter a game on a 3-game losing streak! In this match-up they are a dog and I did consider playing the money line here but we'll grab the available points which is currently 3.5 as of early gameday morning. The Warriors are not a strong team. Golden State is dead last in the Pacific and they continue to give up too many points. The Warriors enter this game having lost 10 of 14 games. So in this game GS is what I would term a "false favorite" as they are laying points against a solid Sixers team that will play desperate here no matter who is on the floor. We will grab the points just in case but I do look for that SU multi-year run of the Sixers when on a 3-game losing streak to reach a PERFECT 7-0 last 7 as they come out strong in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 10:10 ET - The Blazers are in a B2B spot but are finally getting healthier again and I certainly do not expect a repeat of last night's shooting performance which saw them make just 6 of 33 from three point land! The Sixers have a number of guys on the injury report as questionable entering this one but no matter who ends up on the floor for this one, they will be going hard to end a 2-game losing streak and the tempo will be pushed. There have been 4 times this year in which the Sixers were on the road and coming off B2B losses and all 4 of those games totaled at least 242 points. Keep in mind, the posted total on this one as of about 10 hours before tipoff is as low as a 222.5 and so this is a 4-0 / 100% season trend we are testing here in terms of the over given this situation. On the road and off B2B losses the Sixers have responded with a fury offensively all 4 times. With Grant and Henderson back last night and overall better shooting expected tonight at home after unusual debacle yesterday, this should fly over the total. The Blazers had averaged scoring 116.5 ppg in their last 13 home games prior to yesterday's poor effort versus Chicago. This line is 10 on this game. That puts this one at Philly 126-116 given that Blazers average. That puts the total at 242 which is the minimum scored in each of the 4 prior times Philly has been in this situation. In other words, everything is lining up here and looks like a solid value. 10* OVER the total in Portland

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line -115 @ Orlando Magic @ 6:10 ET - The Suns opened as a small favorite here but the line has come down to as low as a -1 and now the money line is available as low as a -115 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Grab the money line in this one as that is the value way to play this one at a cheap price. I don't see the Suns losing B2B games. They are off a tough 2 point loss but they had won 7 straight and 12 of 15 games prior to that! The Magic, on the other hand, are also off a loss but that brings Orlando's run to 7-15 their last 22 games! The Magic play in one of the weakest divisions in the NBA while the Suns play in one of the strongest. Orlando is 6-9 SU against Western Conference teams this season. Phoenix is 9-5 SU against Eastern Conference teams. Yes, the Magic would like revenge here for a loss at Phoenix 4 weeks ago but Orlando is just not on the same level as this Suns team. Grabbing Phoenix hungry off a loss is a superb value here with the way this line has come down. We'll fade the line move and lay a very short price with this money line. 10* PHOENIX -115

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 5:40 ET - The Nuggets are at home and this line has gone from as low as 3.5 to as high as 5.5 points. This is a revenge game for Denver as they lost at Philly earlier this month. However, Embiid is so focused when he is healthy and playing this team and he is ready for this one just like he was in Philly less than two weeks ago. It is the big battle between Jokic and Embiid. In past visits here for the Sixers, Embiid either missed the game or played but was not healthy. The situation this season is different and that will be reflected on the scoreboard as well. The Nuggets are the defending champs and a great team but only 1 of their last 5 games has resulted in a Denver win by more than 5 points. We have some value here with a talented underdog that sees this match-up as a huge game. The Sixers know the NBA title chase ran through Denver last season and that it ultimately could be the same story out west this season. The Sixers must prove they can win here. I do expect Maxey (ankle) to play and, keep in mind, the Nuggets have key players banged up too. That counteracts the impact should Maxey not play in this one. The points are just too valuable here in a game the Sixers can win outright if Embiid keeps playing like he has been. I look for another aggressive game from him here as he looks to again outduel a player, Jokic, that he greatly respects. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +105/+110 @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The Thunder have won 4 straight games and they have revenge on their minds here too. They lost at home to the Pelicans back in early November. Look for the road team to again prevail in this one. Oklahoma City has been so hot with 26-9 SU record last 35 games and they have won 5 of last 7 on the road also. New Orleans is off a win at home but had lost 5 of 9 home games prior to that one. In other words, home court has been nothing special for the Pelicans of late and, overall, New Orleans was on just a mediocre 4-4 run last 8 games prior to hitting everything in sight in their unreal 153 to 124 win over Utah in most recent game. This low line is begging for Pelicans money but we will not bite on the bait. Not only are we grabbing the underdog here but we do not even need the points. Avoid laying any juice and grab a little plus money with the money line in this one. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY +105/+110

NBA 10* Top Play Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers are about 5 to 5.5 point favorites on the road here. Even though Indiana is at home, they will be without Haliburton and also the Pacers just got back from a long road trip. After a long road swing like that, the first game back is almost the toughest. Making it even tougher is when you face a revenge-minded Sixers team that is on a hot streak. I know Harris might be out for the Sixers tonight but they are otherwise looking strong and certainly the Haliburton absence for the Pacers is the big one. Indiana did spring that upset at Philly as noted above but the Pacers outscored the Sixers beyond the arc by 21 points (differential of 7 threes) as the 76ers had a rare tough shooting night from deep. Philly had taken the first meeting this season by double digits and I expect a repeat of that here. The Sixers enter this one on a 6-game winning streak and the average margin of victory has been 11 points per game. The Pacers have lost 5 of 6 games and are a very weak team defensively. In this revenge spot it will be Philly bringing the better defensive effort. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line -125 @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:30 ET - The Suns are the hottest team in the Western Conference right now and have won 6 straight games. The Mavericks are at home for this match-up so that is keeping this line in check. But Dallas also is dealing with a lot of injury issues and this includes Doncic and Irving. Even if both those guys play they are not 100% and Dante Exum - a contributor for sure - might still be out as well. So two stars and a 20-minute type guy all are question marks here. Phoenix also is seeking payback for the home loss to Dallas earlier this season. The Mavs just have been very inconsistent and they are facing a high-quality revenge-minded opponent that is on a win streak. Until the Mavericks are healthy I expect their struggles with consistency to continue. Revenge is NOT a big angle for me here but it does not hurt either...that's for sure. The big key is the hotter team and the healthier team available at a nice price here. Line on the side as low as 1.5 points as of early game day morning but I recommend the only slightly higher price on the money line to make any Suns win a win at the betting window as well. 10* PHOENIX -125

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - This line is in the 6.5 range as of 9 hours before tipoff and I like the underdog value here. Yes, Utah does not have a good SU record on the road and the Pelicans are tough at home. However, this Jazz team has been playing very well for an extended stretch here and the 3 meetings between these teams so far this season have all been tight. Those 3 games have been decided by an average margin of 4.7 points. Utah enters this game off B2B losses but both were by 5 or less points! Prior to this, the Jazz had won 12 of 14 games! So this Jazz team is still hot and and they have been tough to beat by a big margin and here they have revenge for losing their most recent game at New Orleans and yet we have a half-dozen points to work with! I will take it! The Pelicans have not exactly been setting the world on fire as they are just 9-7 SU last 16 games and I feel we have solid value with the way the Jazz have been playing and yet entering this game off B2B losses. The Jazz have not lost 3 straight since early December. Upset alert here but we'll grab the points just in case. 10* UTAH (+)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET - This total in the 237 range and Philly is about a 14 point favorite here. The reason I am referencing those specific numbers is because the Spurs have scored at least 115 points in 7 of their last 9 games. If they hit at least that 115 mark and the odds makers are right about the spread on this game (as they so often are) that puts this total in the mid-240s. That means we have some solid value with the over here the way I see it. The 76ers are off a rare ultra low-scoring game which they won at Charlotte. Now they are back at home where they so often play at a frenetic pace and note that the Spurs are known for playing fast as well. With this being a non-conference match-up there is also less emphasis on defense. The Sixers are rested and have some rest on deck as well so they will go all out here and the Spurs are coming off a rare win and will be ready to push the tempo again here as that is the way they have been playing consistently all season long. Now SA has the confidence boost of coming off a rare win too so their hotter shooting might surprise here as confidence tends to be contagious. Sixers defense could be lax here after holding their last opponent below 90 points! 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:10 ET - First off I know the Blazers are one of the weaker teams in the league but the Lakers are only mediocre in my eyes and that means we have excellent line value here given a few other keys with this one as well. Portland enters this game off B2B wins so that helps a little with confidence. The Lakers are off a bad loss in most recent game and they also could get caught looking ahead to a big game with the rival Clippers on deck. Don't be surprised if LeBron and Company make the mistake of looking right past these Blazers. Also, about LeBron, he is not 100% and could be rested some especially as this game goes on which would allow Portland backdoor cover potential, if that is even needed. Also Anthony Davis appears to have a more serious injury issue he is dealing with now so, even if he plays, he will not be 100% and he could be rested here as a maintenance day given his new injury designation. So, at the end of the day, this is just too many points to give the Blazers in a game like this. Their confidence has been increasing also with recent wins. They will hang around in this game and this one decided by single digits. We'll grab the 10.5 points on offer in this one as of 9 hours before tipoff. 10* PORTLAND (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (+) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - This line is in the 11 range as of 8 hours before tipoff. This is the 2nd of 4 meetings between these teams this season and the first game was in Charlotte and was a memorable one! The Hornets suffered their worst home loss in franchise history! 135 to 82 was the final score in that one. Now you have a motivated Hornets team at home and playing with some added confidence after winning their most recent game. Yes it was against the lowly Spurs but that was a much-needed win for Charlotte. Now they host a Sixers team off a big win at Orlando last night. Though Embiid will likely play some, with this being the 2nd game of a B2B and now facing a lesser foe, Philly may choose to rest him some as the game goes on. The Hornets will prove to be the more motivated team here and that will help them keep this game to single digits. The hosts remember all too well how the prior meeting played out this season. Embarrassing home court loss, worst of franchise history, means payback here. Hornets keep this one to single digits. 10* CHARLOTTE (+)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - This line is around a -5 as of about 10 hours before tipoff. The Sixers recently beat the Magic at Orlando by 20 points so this is a revenge spot for the Magic. However, Orlando will again be without Wagner and he scored 24 of the 92 points the Magic had in the prior game with Philly. Yes, this is the front end of a B2B for the Sixers but tomorrow it is lowly Charlotte that they will be facing. In other words, I am sure this game has the full attention of Philadelphia and the absence of Wagner will be significant here for the Magic. They enter this game having lost 4 of 5 and the fact they are off a buzzer-beater loss versus a divisional foe will not help them in the confidence department here. The high-flying Sixers can take advantage. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Thursday OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Washington Wizards @ 7:40 ET - The Knicks in a B2B and off another strong performance on defense. Given that this is a B2B and New York is a double digit favorite with good reason, you can expect a high-scoring run and gun affair in this one. The Knicks used up their defensive energy last night against Houston. Now they face a Wizards team that is having a horrible season and so you know the Knicks are going to be willing to just play a free-flowing game here after last night's stronger effort on the defense end. Washington has scored 120 ppg last 4 games. However, the Wizards also are 7-32 SU this season and have allowed nearly 130 ppg in their 32 losses! Don't be surprised when this game lands in the 130-120 type range which means we have a lot of wiggle room compared to the current total in the 235 range in this one as of 11 hours before tipoff! OVER the total in New York

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:40 ET - The Mavericks are in the +4 or +3.5 range in this one and I know many will be looking at the Lakers here in a double revenge spot but I look for the Mavs to complete the trifecta and make the series a 3-0 sweep for the regular season. The key here is the line value with the Mavericks getting solid points as a road dog to a team that has been struggling for quite some time now. The Lakers have lost 12 of 18 games. Also, in those 18 games, ONLY 3 have been victories by more than a 3 point margin. Yes, I am aware Doncic is a game time decision here but Hardaway Jr just had 41 with the extra minutes he is getting because Doncic is out. Couple that with the fact Irving is on fire, the Mavs have won 2 of 3 now even with Doncic out. Long-term this Dallas team is on an 8 of 13 run and one of those 5 losses was by just 5 points. They are the top team in the Southwest Division and the Lakers continue to be over-rated by the betting masses. Los Angeles is not a great team. Let's grab the underdog value here. 10* DALLAS (+)

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:30 ET - This line has dropped a little from as high as a 4.5 overnight to now being down to as low as a 2.5 as of about 8.5 hours before tipoff. There are so many injury question marks entering this one but I feel the biggest key is that the only significant one for the Sixers is Embiid and yet he just came back from some time off. So, even though this is a B2B spot, Embiid is in good shape and even his coach is expecting him to play again tonight. Keep in mind, the 76ers win was an early game yesterday too at mid-day so that helps in the rest department plus it was a blowout win that was not nearly as close as the final score would lead you to believe. The Sixers were therefore able to rest guys and no one played more than 31 minutes. As for the Nuggets, they have a number of key players on their injury report including Jokic. Now certainly I do expect Jokic to play tonight but with other players likely missing and a number of guys (including Jokic) not 100% if they even do play, the Sixers are the play here at home. Philly's Embiid also would have some extra motivation here because Jokic got his ring with Denver last season and, of course, Embiid and Jokic are two of the best big men in the league! Extra motivation for a 76ers club that still wants to prove it can beat the best and rise the elite level. Lay the short number here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) 

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Houston Rockets @ 1:10 ET - The Sixers should have Embiid back for this one but, either way, they are off a blowout win over the Kings without him. Philly is now 14-6 at home this season and Houston is only 4-13 on the road this season. This looks like a blowout that favors the host in a big way. The Rockets just lost by 32 at Boston and that was their 3rd loss in 4 games. Philly already won the first meeting by 4 points and that was at Houston and the Sixers did not have Embiid in that one. Again, he could be back for this one and Philly is at home and he did practice fully each of the last two days. Lay the points here for another blowout as the home/road variance is a big edge for the hosts in this one. Laying 7.5 points here (as of 3 hours before tipoff) is a value line in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns @ 9:10 ET - Portland is back home after losing 3 straight on the road. I expect them to score better now that they are on their home floor but this is a Trail Blazers team that is awful at the defensive end. The Blazers have allowed 123 ppg (not including OT points of course) in their last 8 games. Portland has averaged scoring 117.6 ppg last 10 home games. So the Trail Blazers will surprise many with some solid scoring at home here but their defense will continue its sub-par play and struggle to slow down this quality Suns team. Phoenix has won 6 of 9 games and averaged 116.8 scoring per game during this stretch. Against a bad Portland team they can easily get well in into the 120s here and that helps send this one flying over the total which is in the low 230s. 10* OVER the total in Portland

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:40 ET - Great set up here. The Spurs are off B2B wins and it has been over a year since they have won 3 straight! Indeed, you have to go back to December 2022 for the last time the Spurs won 3 games in a row! Adding to the value here is the fact that Wembanyama will be rested for San Antonio plus Chicago is off a loss. The Bulls, in other words, will be hungry here as they had won 3 straight before that loss and the defeat ruined their ring of honor night which also was ruined by the boos when long-time owner Jerry Krause, whose widow was in attendance, had his name announced. Unsurprisingly, the Bulls went on to get destroyed in the 2nd half after that. Also, this was even despite having a double digit edge at the half. So the Bulls will be ready here and the fact this game is on the road is even better for them after that debacle at home. It also keeps this line manageable. Considering that Wembanyama will not play because SA is in a B2B and considering this line is just 5.5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff, this is a great value! 10* CHICAGO (-)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Sacramento Kings @ 7 ET - The Sixers are a PERFECT 6-0 SU the last 6 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. It has been a couple years since they ever had a losing streak more than 3 games. I know they are still without Embiid but this is why we are getting line value here with Philly at home at basically a pick'em price in this one. Given the line value and the home court edge, I have no hesitation in backing the Sixers here! Philly has proven before they can win without Embiid and keep in mind their most recent game was at Atlanta and they took the Hawks to OT before ultimately falling just short. That said, no hesitation in now backing them at home as they look to resume the winning! The Kings are off B2B wins but they have only won 3 straight games ONCE in the past two months! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Pick'em -105/-110 or +1 @ LA Lakers @ 10 ET - This is a triple revenge spot for the Suns. They have lost all 3 to the Lakers this season. Los Angeles is off a 1-point win over the Raptors in which they were practically given the win on a silver platter by the refs. Toronto's head coach and, rightfully so, was about as angry as you will ever see a coach after a game. I honestly do not think the Lakers and LeBron "king of the flop" are going to be getting as many calls in the very next game after that complete embarrassment to the league in terms of officiating. Couple that with the fact you have the Suns entering this one off B2B losses and also having lost all 3 meetings with the Lakers this season and you have the perfect set up for an ultra strong effort from the road team in this one. Think about it...why else are the Lakers at home only a pick'em here when they have won all meetings this season? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. Grab the road team in this one! 10* PHOENIX Pick'em -105/-110 or +1

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - The Hawks are just 6-14 SU last 20 games. Trae Young is expected to play in this one but it is evident from his recent shooting numbers from distance that the right shoulder is bothering him. The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid but this is a "rally the troops" type of game off B2B losses and having proven many times before that they can be okay without Embiid when they have to. If the Sixers win this game straight-up then of course it is an ATS win as they are an underdog of 1.5 to 2 points here as of about 10 hours before tipoff for this one! Philly, including post-season, is a PERFECT 5-0 the last 5 times they entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. That includes a PERFECT 3-0 this season. I look for this situation to make it a perfect 4-0 here on the season and perfect 6-0 long-term. Before these B2B losses Philly was 23-10 this season. The Hawks started the season 8-7 but have gone 6-14 since. This line, even though Atlanta is at home, is still over-adjusted because of Embiid being out. That means value here with the road dog. Grab the points but we should not need them. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) 

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:40 ET - The Mavericks are laying about 8.5 points here as of 10 hours before game time. This is a great value considering the Mavs are rolling and now the Grizzlies just lost Morant for the rest of the season. This is the final match-up between these divisional foes these season. Shockingly, the road team has taken all 3 so far but this one is an entirely different situation with the Mavericks on a power surge and also able to take advantage of a short-handed Memphis team. Dallas has won 3 straight games and Memphis is off B2B wins but is still 10 games below .500 on the season! They really have struggled when Morant has not been available and now that is the case again here and the Grizzlies are 6-3 with Morant this season and went 7-20 without him! Mavs roll huge at home. 10* DALLAS (-)