Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers head to Toronto in much different shape than when they traveled north of the border earlier this season. Philly now has Jimmy Butler and they also are carrying the confidence of a 3-game homestand sweep that saw them hold opponents under 99 points in all 3 games. The Sixers view this as a huge game to prove they can compete among the best in the east as most everyone has already anointed the Raptors as the highly likely Eastern Conference representative for the NBA Finals this season. Of course the Bucks and Sixers (and Celtics too once they get back on track) have a little something to say about that! Toronto's defense has struggled at times in 3 of their last 4 games. The Sixers have gotten back to playing the "right way" on the defensive end and, with Butler joining Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, this team is going to be a much tougher match-up than what Kawhi Leonard and company dealt with in late October! Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS (and 5-1 SU!) when playing with revenge this season. The 76ers are also a long-term 23-11 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Toronto is a long-term 8-18 ATS in home games with posted total of 220 points or more. Also, the Raptors are only 5-8 ATS in all home games this season. Don't be surprised if the Sixers get the upset here but I am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The Heat were favored by 2.5 AT Orlando in their season opener and lost. That makes this a revenge game for Miami and some may be surprised to see they are again favored by 2.5 even though this game is on their home floor. However, the key is that Goran Dragic is still out for the Heat. Even though he practiced with the team Monday he has already been ruled out for Tuesday and will be missing his 8th straight game. Why is this significant? He is certainly one of Miami's best players and, in fact, led the Heat with 26 points in the first game with the Magic and that was a 3 point loss! Note that the Magic enter this game having gone 8-2-1 ATS this season on the road. As for Miami, they are a horrible 1-6 ATS in divisional games this season. Overall, Orlando is on a 10-1-1 ATS run their last dozen games and they've been off for 3 days entering this match-up. The Heat are off back to back upset wins but Miami has shot just 41% from the field in those two games. The Magic have shot 50% their last two games and will be ready for another divisional battle here. 10* ORLANDO

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - With the Thunder such a small favorite here (-1 in many spots) as of early game day morning, it is well worth it to play the money line (-115 range) in this one. Oklahoma City is 7-1 SU in non-conference games this season. The Thunder have won 13 of their last 17 games. I know that the Pistons have also been hot but I like the Western Conference team in a match-up like this. Adding to the value here is the fact that the Pistons are off a Saturday win over the defending NBA Champion Warriors. Also, the road team won both meetings between these teams last season and the Thunder have been off since Friday so they are well-rested here. The Pistons are just 4-4 SU this season when facing teams with a winning record. The Thunder are 3-1 SU this season in games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, OKC is 12-4 ATS (and 14-2 SU!) when facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game. The Pistons are 7-12 ATS when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 3 or more games and the Thunder get the big road win here at a great price. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY 

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 5:05 ET - The Bucks are averaging 120.8 points per game this season. However, their defense has been sub-par over the past week and they certainly are unlikely to be overly "amped up" about facing a 7-16 Knicks team. In other words, this one is likely to be played at a fast pace with plenty of open floor for New York to "run and gun". Milwaukee has allowed 48.9% shooting and 117 points per game in its last 4 contests. The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between the Bucks and Knicks. Milwaukee is also 4-0 to the over in games against Atlantic Division opponents this season. Saturday games for the Bucks are a long-term 24-9 to the over and December games are 22-7 to the over the past two seasons. The Knicks most recent game stayed under the total but they entered that contest having gone 6-2 to the over in their prior 8 games. New York is also an incredible 17-6 to the over in Saturday games and 15-6 to the over when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. 10* OVER the total in New York

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Jazz got Donovan Mitchell back in their most recent game as he saw his first significant action in the past 4 games. Utah could also have newly acquired Kyle Korver on the floor for this game too. Of course he is going to be a big boost to the 3-point shooting woes the Jazz have experience. The Hornets are off back to back wins for the 4th time this season. That holds significance here as Charlotte has yet to win 3 straight games so far this season. I don't expect that to change here. Look for the Jazz to improve to 5-2 SU and ATS when coming off a non-conference game this season. The Hornets are 13-23 SU and ATS when off a divisional game. This game also involves the East vs West theory which is one that, in recent seasons, favors the West as they've been the stronger conference for many consecutive seasons now. Look for Charlotte to drop to 0-3 SU this season in games against non-conference foes. The Jazz are 13-7 SU their last 20 against Southeast Division opponents and also 40-22 SU when off a win by a double digit margin. Look for another road rout for the Jazz here. 10* UTAH

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - It is the wounded dog that bites the hardest! In other words, just because Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are likely out for this game it does not mean the Warriors are going to be a push-over for the Raptors. Golden State has been getting the job done even without these guys and I like the fact that the Warriors have held their last 3 opponents to a combined 42.9% from the field. The Raptors burned me at Memphis Tuesday as they rallied from a 17 point deficit and they got the win and cover at the Grizzlies despite Toronto attempting just 69 shots from the field. The fact is that the Raptors have allowed 10 field goal attempts more than they've taken in their last 3 games combined. Were it not for a ridiculous 61% shooting percentage from the field at Memphis Tuesday, the Raptors never would have won that game and they're certainly not repeating that effort against the Warriors tonight. Golden State will be "dialed in" on defense tonight because, even with missing a few guys, the last thing they want to do is get blown out in a possible NBA finals preview. The Warriors will bring their "A game" for this one. When GS is on an over streak of 3 or more consecutive overs, they've gone 14-6 ATS in recent seasons including a perfect 3-0 ATS this season! Toronto is 0-3 ATS this season in home games against Western Conference opponents. More of the same here. 10* GOLDEN STATE

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #716 Wednesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - The Wizards have shot a ridiculously high percentage from the field in their last two games. One of those was against the Pelicans. However, both of those games were in Washington and I don't expect the Wizards to stay hot now that they are on the road for this one. The Wizards are just 2-7 SU on the road this season while New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season. Now, of course, we need more than just a SU win to get the cash here. However, note that Washington is 0-7 ATS when they lose on the road. In other words, when the Wizards lose, they don't cover either when away from home! As for the Pelicans, the average margin of their 8 home wins this season is 11 points and I expect another double digit win as they are in full-on revenge mode for this one. The Pelicans have been swept in each of the past two seasons by the Wizards and they want to avoid that same fate this season by coming up with a huge win here. I expect them to do just that! Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more this season. Look for the Pelicans to improve to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in home games with a posted total of 230 points or more this season. Payback revenge game on tap here and the half-dozen points means a very manageable line for what should be a home blowout. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Wednesday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The Knicks are in a tough back to back spot while the 76ers have had two days off heading into this one. Also, Philly wants to make up for the most recent home game. That was a loss to the Cavaliers and ended the Sixers unbeaten start in home games that saw them begin the season 10-0 at home. Note that Philadelphia is still a long-term 61-36 ATS in home games. Also, the 76ers are also 53-29 ATS in games against teams averaging 106 points or more per game. The Knicks had won 3 straight games before last night's loss but this back to back is a tough situation for them. New York is just 1-4 ATS this season when they are off a road game in their prior game and are facing an Eastern Conference foe. The Sixers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Knicks and that huge success at the betting window continues in this series Wednesday. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Rickenbach NBA Game #510 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9:05 ET - While the Lakers are off a loss and looking to bounce back here, they are still without guard Rajon Rondo. Playing without your starting point guard is never fun but this is particularly true when you are on the road at Denver! Not only is Denver a tough place to play, the Nuggets have revenge on their minds here and they are likely to have guard Gary Harris back in the lineup for this one. Even if they don't, other stepped up in his absence Saturday as the Nuggets upset the Thunder at Oklahoma City. Denver is back on track with 3 straight wins and they are hungry for revenge here against LeBron James and company! The home team is 7-1 SU (and ATS!) in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Also, the Nuggets are 4-0 SU and ATS this season when they enter a game on an "under" streak of 3 or more games. The fact is that Denver has been playing very well on the defensive end and that is noteworthy here as the Lakers are having issues with turnovers in recent games. The Lakers are just 5-9 ATS their last 14 games and this is not the time or place for them to turn things around! 10* DENVER

Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Tuesday 8* Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This one sets up perfectly. The Raptors have won 5 straight games but are on the road here and have a huge "potential NBA finals preview" on deck as they host the Warriors Thursday! As for Memphis, they are off back to back losses and the Grizzlies have not lost 3 straight games yet this season! In other words, a bounce back is likely for Memphis in this one! The Grizzlies are 7-2 SU and ATS in home games this season! Also, against teams that average 106 points or more, Memphis is a rock solid 105 SU and ATS this season! Toronto is on a 9-19 ATS run in Tuesday games and I look for the Raptors to drop to 0-3 ATS so far this season when facing a Southwest Division opponent. From a situational standpoint, this is a great spot to back the home dog! 8* MEMPHIS

Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The Knicks have stayed under the total in back to back games but previously had gone over the total in 5 straight games. Also, New York is 5-2 to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Knicks are 6-3 to the over this season when facing a team with a winning record. The Pistons are 4-0 to the over in their last 4 games as, just like New York, Detroit enters this game on an overall hot run. The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Pistons are 6-2 to the over this season in games against teams with a losing record. With both teams rolling and playing with plenty of confidence right now, look for plenty of points in this one with the game played at a good pace. 8* OVER the total in Detroit

Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Monday 7* Houston Rockets (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets are off back to back losses. Houston has outshot their opponents by 29 field goal attempts the 4 times this season that they've entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. The point being that the Rockets work a little harder in situations like this and I expect that to be the case again here on Monday as they don't want to end this 3-game road trip without a victory! Houston has shot 50% or better from the field in 4 of their last 6 games. The Wizards are off a strong shooting performance Saturday but that has been the exception rather than the norm of late. Washington, prior to defeating New Orleans, had shot just 42.4% from the field in their 4 prior games. The Wizards are just 3-7 SU and ATS versus Western Conference foes this season. The Rockets are 67-37 SU (and 62-42 ATS) in their last 104 road games and get the job done again here. 7* HOUSTON

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The over is a perfect 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams and that includes a perfect 4-0 in meetings in Cleveland. Both these teams have trended under this month and that has resulted in this total being set lower than it should be. The Cavaliers have averaged 119 points per game their last two games. However, the Cavaliers have also given up an average of 112 points per game their last five games. The Timberwolves have played at a fast pace in recent games and also Minnesota has averaged 93 field goal attempts per game their last 7 road games. The Cavaliers have averaged 95 field goal attempts per game their last 3 games. Look for a good pace to this game and plenty of points as the long term high-scoring trend in this series continues. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Lakers vs Orlando Magic @ 3:35 ET - The Magic are off a horrific effort at Denver Friday where they were held to 87 points. Orlando is now off back to back low-scoring games after having scored an average of 119 points per game in their 6 prior games. The Lakers are off a rare low-scoring contest as well as they beat the Jazz 90-83 on Friday. Los Angeles previously had averaged scoring 116 points per game in their 4 prior games. I feel these low-scoring results have set this one up with nice value in a game where a bounce back effort offensively with plenty of "run and gun" basketball in this Sunday non-conference match-up. The long-term trending in this series is "under" but I look for the over to improve to 3-0 this season when LA is entering a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. Also, the over is 3-1 this season when Orlando enters a game off back to back unders. 8* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Lakers game

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Nuggets vs Orlando Magic @ 9:05 ET - The Magic are off a low-scoring loss at Toronto Tuesday as they had a horrific shooting night. Orlando entered that game red hot from the floor in their 6 prior games and scoring an average of 119 points per game during that stretch. That said, the low-scoring loss was surprising and I expect the Magic to get right back on track here (offensively) in this one. The Nuggets may have trouble staying fully focused here as they are off a win at Minnesota and have a game at Oklahoma City on deck. That said, this is a "sandwich game" against an Eastern Conference foe so it is unlikely to bring out the best in terms of defensive intensity. In fact 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams have gone over the total (including 2 for 2 at Denver). The over is 17-7 when the Nuggets enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. The over is 20-11 when Denver is off a divisional game. Also, the over is 51-26 when the Nuggets face a team that is scoring an average of 106 points or more per game. 10* OVER the total in Denver

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Wednesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers will be the popular choice here as they are yet to lose a game at home this season. However, the Pelicans are 4-0 SU in games against Eastern Conference foes this season and that includes 3-0 SU versus Atlantic Division opponents. Those wins including a double digit victory for New Orleans at Toronto last week. The Pelicans have been red hot with their shooting and the 76ers certainly haven't been known for their defense this season. The Sixers added Jimmy Butler in the huge deal with Minnesota but the Markelle Fultz saga continues and J.J. Redick is listed as questionable for tonight's game. Philly is 1-6 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more in their prior game. The Pelicans are 4-1 SU (and ATS) when off a win by a double digit margin this season. Rolling with momentum after knocking off the Spurs Monday, the Pelicans get the job done again on the road at Philly Wednesday. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The under seems to be attracting some early attention in this game but who is going to be playing defense and why? When you look at this match-up you have an Orlando team that has been on fire with their shooting and certainly is not known for defense. You also have a Raptors team that is proving to be one of the elite teams in the NBA and games like this, against sub-par competition, are the types of games for which they certainly aren't known for bringing "lock-down defense". Toronto held the Bulls to 83 points in their most recent game but they were angry off a loss to Boston when they entered that game. The Raptors entered the game against Chicago having allowed an average of 117 points per game in their 4 prior games and those went 3-1 to the over. The Raptors have been lighting it up on the other end of the floor as they've averaged 117 points per game their last 8 games. The Magic are on a 4-2 run to the over. They've shot 54% from the field in their last 3 games. Also, Orlando has averaged scoring 119 points per game their last 6 games but they've also allowed 117 points in each of their last 2 games and 3 of their last 4. The over is 22-11 when the Raptors enter a game with 2 days of rest. The over is 14-8 when the Magic are off a win by a double digit margin. 8* OVER the total in Orlando

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Monday 8* Denver Nuggets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The contrarian theory again is in play here as most are going to gravitate toward the Bucks in this one since they are laying such a short number at home. I am happy to be on the revenge minded road dog. The Nuggets are 3-1 SU and ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge and they're looking for payback after dropping one to the Bucks in Denver recently. The Bucks are off a win and that is certainly significant. Why? Because since their red hot October to being the season, Milwaukee has been unable to win consecutive games! In the month of November the Bucks have alternated wins and losses and I look for that pattern to continue here. 8* DENVER

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Saturday 8* Utah Jazz (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - While it is true that this is a back to back spot for the Jazz and that the Celtics have revenge, it is arguably a tougher spot for Boston! That is because the Celtics are off a huge "marquee match-up" win over Toronto last night. Not only was that a huge game for Boston that is the type of W that can leave a team flat in their next game, particularly when playing a non-conference opponent, it also took a lot out of the Celtics physically and emotionally because it went to OT. As for the Jazz, they are off a loss at Philly last night, but they only made 4 of 22 three pointers while the Sixers drained 11 from beyond the arc. Of course that 21 point difference in long-range points had a lot to do with the final outcome and Utah comes out very hungry tonight after the late loss (led by 2 late in 4th) to the 76ers. The Jazz are 22-12 SU in Saturday games and improve to 3-0 (SU and ATS) this season when off a non-conference game. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in non-conference games this season and Boston is also 0-3 ATS when playing on back to back days. 8* UTAH

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - Both teams are looking to bounce back but the Jazz are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Utah is off an unbelievable 118-68 loss at Dallas. Though they are hungry to get back on track after that, the Jazz now visit Philly where the 76ers are also in bounce back mode. Philadelphia just dropped Jimmy Butler's debut game at Orlando Wednesday despite having a double digit lead heading into the 4th quarter! Now Butler makes his home debut for the Sixers. Not only is Philly 7-0 SU at home this season, they're going to take advantage of a Jazz team that has struggled to score on the road in 3 straight games! In Utah's last 3 road games they are averaging just 84 points per game and they've been held to 37% shooting from the field. The 76ers are averaging 118 points per game at home this season! In other words, there is a significant home/road dichotomy factor in looking at these two teams. Though the Jazz will be looking to get back on track they are actually 12-20 ATS when off an upset loss as a favorite. Also, Philly is a long-term 40-22 ATS in non-conference games and the Sixers are a long-term 60-33 ATS in home games! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Jimmy Butler's first game with the 76ers. The fact it is on the road is even better as it is keeping this line at a reasonable number. I look for Philly to win this game in blowout fashion. The Sixers now have a "Big 3" with Butler joining Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. This team is poised to be a force in the East to be reckoned with and Butler is likely to "go off" tonight and have a massive performance as he is thrilled to finally be out of Minnesota. The Magic should provide the perfect "punching bag" as Orlando. Entering Wednesday, the Magic are just 5-8 SU in their last 13 games. Orlando has just 3 ATS wins in its last 10 games. The Magic are 11-23 ATS when off a divisional game. Orlando is also a horrible 32-56 ATS in home games including 2-6 ATS this season. The 76ers are 25-13 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog and also 28-13 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Offensively the Sixers are averaging nearly 10 points more per game than Orlando. Defensively Philly is allowing just 43% from the field while the Magic are allowing 46% from the field. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Tuesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Of course the Cavs 1-11 SU record on the season makes them look very uninviting to the betting markets. The result is line value in a situation like this because they have been a different team since the coaching change. The Cavaliers last 3 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of only 4 points. Cleveland has been playing better on the defensive end and has allowed an average of just 99 points per game in their last 3 losses. The Hornets are in a tough scheduling spot as they are off a big win at Detroit and have a big revenge game with the 76ers on deck. Charlotte just recently lost to Philly by a single point and can't help but be anticipating the big match-up with newly acquired Jimmy Butler and the Sixers. The Hornets are also having to deal with a revenge-minded Cavs team here. Cleveland trailed Charlotte by just 7 points at the half in their meeting earlier this month but then got blown out by 32 by the time the final horn sounded. Time for some payback here and the Cavaliers improve to 3-0 ATS this season when playing with revenge. 10* CLEVELAND

Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The "zig zag" theory in sports betting refers to the fact that the markets tend to quickly adjust based on one prior game. As for me, in typical contrarian fashion, when the markets follow the zig zag I like to take a look at the value it creates on the other side and that is what has me in play here. Last night I successfully used the Bucks off an OT loss the prior night. Good teams are hungry off losses folks and Milwaukee responded despite the tough scheduling situation that had most of the betting world backing Denver. This is a similar situation here. Though the Sixers at least did have a day off in between games, the fact is that they are off an OT loss. Also, they are without a few players involved in the big trade for Jimmy Butler. Of course Butler will not play tonight so it is a bit of a short roster for the 76ers tonight. However, they had that same short roster at Memphis Saturday and still nearly got the win before falling just short in overtime. The point is that, with the shorter bench and off an OT loss and with the Heat having playoff revenge, the market is going to pile on Miami here. I'll gladly grab the value on the other side knowing that Philly is the better team, had a day of rest, and is hungry off a loss. Keep in mind the 76ers are already 4-1 SU this season when off a loss. Also, the Sixers are a perfect 4-0 SU against Southeast Division opponents this season. Miami is 1-5 SU and ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. Another high-scoring game goes against the Heat here! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:05 ET - The "zig zag" theory in sports betting refers to the fact that the markets tend to quickly adjust based on one prior game. As for me, in typical contrarian fashion, when the markets follow the zig zag I like to take a look at the value it creates on the other side and that is what has me in play here. With the Bucks off an OT loss at LA against the Clippers last night and now playing at Denver tonight, it has created a mass run of betting on the Nuggets. I look at this game differently. Milwaukee has been one of the best teams in the NBA early this season. The Bucks have yet to lose back to back games this season. Prior to losing to the Clippers they beat the World Champion Warriors AT Golden State! Don't you think that might have had something to do with last night's loss ladies and gentleman? The point is that the markets thing the Nuggets are one of the easiest plays of the season thus far when the fact is the Bucks (swept by the Nuggets each of the past two seasons) are likely to win outright in my opinion. Milwaukee is very hungry here, they are 1-2 on this road trip and want to even it up before going home, and the Bucks have two days off after this game. The point is that Milwaukee can definitely "leave it all on the floor" tonight at Denver and I feel that is precisely what they will do and that the result will be a win. Keep in mind the Nuggets have not shot as well as Bucks this season and that includes from the 3-point line which is so important in "today's game" in terms of the 3-ball being a key factor. In terms of defense, the Bucks are holding opponents to a lower shooting percentage than the Nuggets are. Also, Denver is just plain cold right now. They've lost two straight games and shot a combined 42.6% from the field! They must have played the Celtics and Warriors, right? NO, Denver played the Brooklyn Nets and Memphis Grizzlies! The point is that the Nuggets are getting way too much respect here and I am happy to grab the extra value here with the line move giving us even more with a hungry Bucks team tonight that I do not see being denied! 8* MILWAUKEE

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #715 Saturday 8* OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets @ 8:35 ET - Both teams coming off ugly losses where they did not shoot the ball well at all. The Spurs were criticized by coach Gregg Popovich for being "soft" after that game. No players wants to hear that of course. I feel that both San Antonio and Houston, coming off ugly losses where their offensive production failed them, are going to be very aggressive about attacking the rim. Keep in mind that doesn't mean the points have to come from the paint. When guys are attacking toward the rim and the defense collapses on them it then frees up open looks from the outside. The Rockets are 3-1 to the over this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. The Spurs are 4-2 to the over in their six home games this season. The last time here snapped a winning streak in this series for the Rockets and they were held to just 83 points. You know that Houston is going to go hard tonight in this rivalry and atone for that poor performance as well as their ugly performance at Oklahoma City Thursday. At the same time, San Antonio is in full on bounce back mode after their ugly shooting night at Miami. The Spurs will shoot much better at home and both teams are going to be very aggressive which will help the tempo of this game. It should lead to a high-scoring match-up. 8* OVER the total in San Antonio

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The last time these two teams met the game stayed well under the total but the pacing of the game should have sent it flying over the total. The problem, for over players, in that game was that both teams shot under 40% from the field. Even with that the game totaled 208 points and I feel the situation here is conducive to an over. The set up here is ideal for plenty of points. The 76ers, after a very sloppy game against Brooklyn, cleaned up their game and also played solid defense in a win at Indiana Wednesday. Now I would not be surprised to see them somewhat complacent here after finally notching their first road win of the season. As for the Hornets, they roll into this game off back to back wins. While it is true that the competition certainly was not fierce. It is also true that Charlotte has been able to build up confidence by getting those two victories. Taking a look at the Hornets last 6 games, the one poor shooting effort was against Philly but Charlotte has shot 49.2% from the field in the other 5 games combined. As for the Sixers, they are averaging 115 points per game at home this season. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Philly's games versus teams with a winning record this season. As for the Hornets, the over is 3-1 this season in their games as an underdog. The lone under was the aforementioned 105-103 loss at Philly. Charlotte and the Sixers make up for that here with a high-scoring shootout! 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Thursday 8* Houston Rockets (-) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Thunder are in the 2nd game of a back to back plus travel was involved as they were in Cleveland last night. The Rockets have a much better scheduling situation as they have been off for two days entering this game. Another issue for the Thunder is that Russell Westbrook is dealing with an ankle sprain. He missed last night's game and, without a practice day in between game days, it is quite likely he misses again tonight. Even if he would happen to play, I still like the Rockets here. Both teams are playing better for certain and they enter this game on hot streaks. However, prior to last night's game Oklahoma City had allowed 111 points per game this season. The Rockets, on the other hand, have been playing solid defense in recent games. Houston has allowed just 91 points per game their last two games and they held each of those opponents to a combined 42% from the field. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last dozen meetings between these teams so home court has certainly proven not to be a big edge in their match-ups. Keep in mind the Rockets have been getting healthier (James Harden) while the Thunder are going the other direction (Westbrook). Houston is 22-9 ATS in November games. The Rockets also are 12-2 SU when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. Considering this as well as the rest edge and Westbrook's questionable status, I am happy to lay the small number on the road in this one. 8* HOUSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Wednesday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are off an embarrassing loss at Brooklyn where Philly turned the ball over 27 times compared to just 9 for the Nets! Philadelphia has had two days off since then and can't wait to get back on the floor and atone for that performance. As for the Pacers, though they've been winning more regularly than the Sixers have of late, they are having shooting issues. Indiana has struggled at the free throw line this season and they've also made just 42% of their shots from the field in their last 3 home games! The Pacers are 0-3-1 ATS this season when off a home game. Also, Indiana is an ugly 1-4 ATS in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. The 76ers are a long-term 49-26 ATS in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, Philadelphia is 3-1 SU when off a loss this season. The public and betting markets are likely to back the Pacers here since the Sixers still have not won a road game this season. I am fading the masses, as per usual, because Philly got demolished by the Nets in their most recent game. As a result, they are incredibly focused for this game and the finally get a road win on the board. Now, though I do expect an outright upset, I am grabbing the available points here as the Pacers are only 3-2 SU in their last 5 games and 2 of those SU wins came by 2 points or less. In other words, getting 2.5 points or more here could prove to be very valuable. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 8* Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hawks are off a big win and ready to build some momentum. Atlanta is 3-0 ATS (and 3-0 SU!) this season when off a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Hornets are also off a big win but have only won back to back games once this season. That said, we're getting great line value here in being able to challenge the Hornets to win this game by a dozen points or more. I just don't see that happening here. Charlotte is a long-term 4-8 ATS in home games with posted total of 220 points or more. Much has been made of the Hornets improved offense this season but truly they have been a bit of sporadic. Prior to their blowout win over the Cavaliers, the Hornets had been held to 44% or less from the field in 5 of their last 7 games including being held to 41% or less in 2 of their last 3 games! The Hawks actually are the much hotter team with shooting right now as they've knocked down 51.4% of their shots from the field in their last 3 games. Of course Atlanta is one of the weaker teams in the league but lets not forget that Charlotte has won just 36 games each of the past two seasons. The Hornets certainly are not juggernauts and they're priced too high in this one. Give me the big points with the Hawks! 8* ATLANTA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets now have James Harden back and, after shaking off some rust in his first game back, he'll be ready to go strong tonight. Keep in mind that was a crazy low-scoring result at Chicago in Houston's most recent game and it is helping to give us line value here. The fact is that the game was on pace for 220 points at half but then the Bulls scored just 7 points in the 3rd quarter. Some credit is due to the Rockets defense but it was also a lot of horrific shooting from Chicago that led to that result. The rest of the game the Bulls scored at least 25 points in each of the other 3 quarters. We all know what this Houston offense is capable of and I expect them to start clicking tonight as the Pacers D may not be at its strongest in a non-conference affair like this. Additionally, we all know Indiana can light up the scoreboard - particularly when at home - and the result of the above is that we should see a shootout between these non-conference foes Monday. The Rockets first 3 road games had all totaled at least 227 points. That "ugly" win at Chicago was Houston's 1st under in 4 road games this season. As for the Pacers, they are averaging 109.5 points per game at home this season and are knocking down 42.6% of their threes when at home! The Rockets have scored 118 points in each of their last two games versus the Pacers. Look for more of the same here as I expect, per all of the above, that each team gets to the 110 range in this one! 10* OVER the total in Indiana

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 1:05 ET - This is a revenge game for the 76ers from that unreal OT loss to the Pistons a little over a week ago when Blake Griffin had an unbelievable performance for Detroit. Undoubtedly, Griffin is a fantastic player. However, not only is a repeat of that type of performance unlikely, a look at some key stats can tell you why the Sixers should win this game handily. The Pistons, other than that win over Philly, have been held under 42.5% from the field in 5 of their other 6 games including 3 in a row. When a team is not shooting well, they're going to have trouble getting past a Philadelphia team that is averaging 116.6 points per game at home on 44.5% from the field and 38.4% from three point land! Also, in terms of defense, the Sixers are allowing just 43.6% from the field while the Pistons are allowing 46.7% from the field. Prior to the loss on October 23rd, by a single point in OT, the 76ers had defeated Detroit 4 straight times by an average margin of 15 points per game. The Sixers are 15-6 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more and I am forecasting a revenging home rout in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - Yes, the Nuggets are in a back to back and off an OT game. Yes, the Cavaliers have a new head coach so "focus" could change for the team. However, lets address those two factors because this total has dropped significantly early this morning and this has led to strong line value on the over. First off, the Cavs first game with Larry Drew instead of Tyronn Lue calling the shots resulted in a win and Cleveland's defense did create turnovers. However, the Cavaliers still allowed their opponent (the Hawks) to make a high percentage of their shots. In other words perhaps the aggressive defense did result in transition points for the Cavs but it also resulted in more open looks for the opponents shooters when they did get past the over-aggressive defenders. The fact is that the Cavaliers game with Atlanta still totaled 250 points and I feel this game with Denver is going to be a shootout as well. The Nuggets defense could be lacking here after putting a ton of effort into the win over the Bulls last night. Also, note that Denver is 14-7 to the over in games against Central Division opponents in recent seasons. Also, over this same time frame, the Nuggets are 46-23 to the over BOTH against teams that allow 106 points or more per game and also teams that score 106 points or more per game. Of course the Cavs fall into both of those categories this season. Additionally, the Cavaliers are on an 11-2 run to the over when off a game where they scored 130 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Grim Reaper ESPN Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The Pacers are off a rare poor shooting game and will bounce back strong here. Even though Indiana is on the road for this one, the Pacers actually have averaged 117.5 points per game in their last two road games. On the season Indiana is hitting 50% from the field overall and 43% from three point land. They'll take advantage of a Knicks team that is allowing 110.7 points per game this season on 47% shooting from the field including 38% from beyond the arc. Although New York's defense leaves a lot to be desired, the Knicks are averaged 110.5 points per game at home this season. I feel we're getting great line value here considering both teams are off a day of rest, the Pacers should be burning up the nets tonight with hot shooting, and New York score very well at home. All these factors combined with a total in the 210 range means excellent line value here! The Pacers are 3-0 to the over this season when off a non-conference game. The Knicks are 2-0 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. Indiana is 3-0 to the over in Eastern Conference match-ups this season. The over is 2-0 in the last two meetings between these teams. That means we have combined edges here of 10-0 / 100% PERFECT supporting this selection! Look for a shootout in this one. 10* OVER the total in New York

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - Kawhi Leonard sat for the Raptors last night (just for rest) but that is no excuse for getting blown out at Milwaukee as the Bucks were without their star player as well as Giannis Antetokounmpo did end up going in concussion protocol. Also, the Sixers Joel Embiid did play in Philly's first back to back this season and I expect he will do so again here after Philadelphia blew out the Hawks in the 2nd half last night and they were able to rest starters in the 4th quarter. Embiid clearly was "saving up" for this game as he had his lowest point total and rebound total of the season in last night's game. Milwaukee, Toronto, Detroit, and Boston are the top 4 teams in the NBA East right now based on records. Why do I bring that up? Because the Sixers have already lost to Boston, Detroit (in OT thriller), and the Bucks. Philadelphia has this game at Toronto circled in blood as a result! The 76ers know they need to prove they can be a quality team in the East as so far they have looked like the weakest of all the aforementioned teams and Philly is supposed to be a legit contender in the East this season. With Ben Simmons playing very well, Markelle Fultz off a strong game, and Embiid having (in my opinion) saved up for this one, I am expecting a Sixers upset tonight but certainly like the value with the points. By the way, Raptors only had 2 players score 11 points or more last night while the 76ers had 6 players score at least 11 points last night. Balanced scoring certainly is an important factor and Philly was all over the boards last night too. They are hungry and in need of a statement win. The Raptors are on an 8-18 ATS run in Tuesday games while the Sixers are on a 13-7 ATS run in Tuesday games. Also, the 76'ers are 46-24 ATS their last 70 games versus teams that score an average of 106 points or more per game. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NBA Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Yes, I am aware of the head injury suffered by Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks but he is NOT in the concussion protocol and I just do not see him missing a huge game like this. The last two undefeated teams in the league are meeting in Milwaukee tonight in what should be a fantastic game with plenty of points scored! The over went 3-0 in meetings between these teams last season. Also, after I got burned on the Raptors over in their most recent game (only went over the closing number but should have finished with 240 points) I have had my eyes on this match-up. Each team, compared to the opening number at least, has stayed under in each of its last two games. However, the pacing of the game has been conducive to an over for each of those games and also each of these teams started the season with 4 straight overs. The first total that popped up on this game was 223 but it has dropped to 221.5 since then and there is huge value here with the over in my opinion. The Bucks have allowed an average of 101 shots per game their last 4 games! The Raptors have allowed an average of 95 shots per game their last 3 games! On the other end of the floor, of course, both teams can fill it up! The Bucks are averaging 119.3 points per game this season and Toronto is averaging 116.8 points per game this season. The over is a long-term 37-25 when the Raptors are off a game where they scored 115 points or more. Also, the over is 20-10 in Toronto's games when they have two days of rest between games. The over is a long-term 47-25 in Bucks games played in the first half of a season. This should be a VERY entertaining shootout tonight! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Saturday 8* Detroit Pistons (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - You know the Celtics will be focused here as they made it all the way to the Eastern Finals last season and are now looking at a Pistons team that has a 4-0 record on the season and trying to prove they're going to make some noise this season. However, just because Boston is focused doesn't mean it is going to pay off here and I feel we're getting excellent line value in this one with Detroit getting a couple of buckets as a home dog here! The Celtics have shot the ball very poorly this season. Boston is only hitting 40.7% from the field this season. The Pistons, on other hand, are hitting 45.4% from the field and Detroit's 3-point shooting % is only 3 percentage points behind the Celtics overall shooting percentage! Additionally, the Pistons are crashing the boards hard and dominating when it comes to rebounds and overall play in the paint. Yes, Boston is the better team on defense and also has played the tougher schedule early this season. However, the Pistons are very confident thanks to their hot start to the season and with Cleveland no longer a threat in the East, Detroit knows they are now hosting the team that would have represented the East in the NBA Finals last season were LeBron already in LA like he is now. The point is that the Pistons are fully charged up for this opportunity to take on one of the best teams in the East and, the way they're playing, I don't see Detroit being denied here. While I fully expect an upset with the Pistons, I am grabbing the added "insurance" available with the points. 8* DETROIT

NBA Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors are undefeated on the season. The Mavericks are coming off a game where they let a 26 point lead slip away. Toronto can score on anybody but has also allowed triple digits in all five of their games this season. Dallas is allowing an insane 50% from three point land this season and the Raptors are allowing just a shade under 40% from beyond the arc this season. The point is that there should be plenty of points in this one. The Mavericks got burned for taking the foot off the gas in their most recent game while the Raptors are averaging 117 points per game this season and have to be licking their chops at attacking the struggling Mavs defense. Dallas is allowing 119.2 points per game this season. Both teams play at a quick pace with the Mavericks averaging 92.5 field goal attempts per game and the Raptors not far behind at around 90. Couple those stats with the fact that both teams have had trouble defending the 3-point line this season as well as the fact that this total, as of early this morning, has dropped big from its opener, and you have a great situation here in terms of value. Toronto's most recent game stayed under the total but, prior to that, the over was 4-0 in Raptors games this season. The over is 5-2 in Mavs games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The over is 9-5 in Raptors home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

NBA Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - This play is contrarian from the standpoint that, on the surface, it looks real easy to take the Rockets at home off a loss and lay a very small number in doing so. However, the problem with Houston right now is they have a cluster of injuries impacting them and also Chris Paul is suspended for one more game and not returning until Friday's match-up with the Clippers. Also, the Rockets are catching the Jazz at the wrong time. Not only does Utah have playoff revenge from last season, the Jazz also enter this game off back to back losses and very fired up for this game. They blew their recent game against the defending champion Warriors and then, after that debacle in the Warriors game, they clearly looked right past Memphis as they were looking ahead to this opportunity for post-season revenge. Now the day has arrived and it is time to "put up or shut up" and I expect the Jazz to "put up" here! Utah has stayed mostly static with their roster and that particularly helps them in a situation like this where the Rockets are having to mix and match pieces. Also note that the Jazz have only failed to cover 24 of their last 67 games when facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game. As for Houston, they are on a 10-18 ATS run when playing with 2 days of rest between games. 10* UTAH

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Detroit is 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS on the season. They've squeaked by Brooklyn and Chicago. Neither the Nets or Bulls are expected to post much of a threat in terms of NBA supremacy this season! The point is that the Pistons are now finally facing a strong team and Philly has some confidence back after back to back wins have followed an opening game disaster versus the Celtics. Yes, the 76ers have also faced a weak schedule since that game one loss but the fact that they've at least, unlike the Pistons, faced one quality opponent, is reason enough to believe that they've got a better shot at getting into the win column in this one. The Pistons have yet to truly be battle tested. Even though Simmons (back) is an issue for the Sixers, they played most of the last game without him which allowed for a good "test run" and they'll be even better prepared tonight after JJ Redick went off in his absence and had a huge game. Keep in mind too that Detroit big man Andre Drummond is dealing with the flu which certainly won't help the Pistons as they try to contain Joel Embiid inside! Philly won all 4 meetings last season and each win came by at least 5 points. The 76ers are on a 21-9 ATS run when playing with 2 days of rest between games and this is their first such opportunity this season. The Sixers will make the most of it! The Pistons have a divisional game on deck (Cavs) and also are off a divisional win (Bulls) and Detroit is 11-20 ATS their last 31 when off a divisional game. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - This total is dropping early this morning which is understandable given the fact that each of these teams has trended early this season as well as the fact that the Celtics are known for defense. However, the drop on the total is also a key to additional value here because I just don't foresee Boston giving a real huge effort on the defensive end in this game. It is a non-divisional match-up against a bad team. These types of match-ups, as a general rule, don't tend to bring out the best in terms of intensity on defense. Also, the Magic have added confidence from scoring 115 points and shooting lights out in a 1 point loss at Philly Saturday. Boston is off a tight win Saturday over the Knicks and this will now be the 3rd game in 4 nights for each of these teams. That also can mean some tired legs on defense. The over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in Boston. The Magic have scored at least 103 points in 2 of their last 3 meetings with the Celtics and at least 104 points in 2 of their 3 games this season. Orlando should ride momentum from the hot shooting at Philly but their defense is poor. That said, look for the Magic to get to the 105 range in this game but they are forecast to lose by double digits for a reason and this one should fly well over the total as the Celtics enjoy a breakout game on offense against a sub-par defense. The over is 22-15 in Orlando's games against Atlantic Division opponents and the over is 26-17 in the Celtics games against Southeast Division opponents. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 6:05 ET - The Cavaliers burned me on Friday night but I'll get it back here. I had the Timberwolves (-8 or -8.5) and they blew a 21-point lead and won the game by only 8 for a loss or push for my clients. Now we get a chance to fade a line move here as everyone is piling on Cleveland for their home opener. This is not a very good Cavs team. Now I am certainly not saying that the Hawks are anything special either but they are now getting a lot more points than they should be considering they are 0-2 SU just like the Cavaliers are so they will be every bit as hungry. Keep in mind they have a history of playing very well here too as they've covered each of their last 8 trips to Cleveland. Coming into this season, Atlanta's projected win total was very close to that of the Cavaliers and there is just not a huge difference right now between these two teams. I also like the fact that the Cavs have covered (to the closing line) each of their first two games but each by just half a point. Their luck runs out here as they will be doing good just to win this game let alone cover the inflated spread. The Cavaliers are on a 61-84 ATS run as a favorite. Cleveland is also 39-58 ATS in home games. Also, when off a non-conference games, the Cavs are an ugly 25-42 ATS. 10* ATLANTA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #710 Friday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Both the Cavs and Wolves were outscored at the 3-point line in their season opening losses. The difference tonight in terms of whom bounces back in Game Two of the new season has a lot to do with the home floor. The Cavaliers are unlikely to fix their outside shooting woes here. Their problems were evident in a bit of a disjointed game at Toronto where they found themselves down 20 points. As for Minnesota's game at San Antonio, they got very little from Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler didn't contribute a lot until he was involved with all of the Timberwolves last 14 points. So if Towns doesn't foul out, Butler carries over momentum from his late game play at SA, and the Wolves also don't get outscored by 15 points from beyond the arc then what happens? I'll tell you what happens. This game should turn into an absolute home blowout. We're getting extra line value here because the Cavs snuck in the back door for a late cover or push while the Wolves just missed covering their first game. Now this line is down from where it should be. Keep in mind the Wolves crushed the Cavs here by 28 points last year and Cleveland comes into this season projected to finish the year 20 games under .500 (sans LeBron James) while the Timberwolves are projected to be a winning team in the tougher Western Conference (per win totals from odds makers before the season). The Wolves are 9-4 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Cavs are 11-33 ATS when off a loss by a double digit margin! Blowout time here. 10* MINNESOTA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers go from playing the best team in the Eastern Conference to now facing one of the worst. Philly also goes from playing on the road in a tough venue in Boston to playing at home for their own rowdy fans. Especially with this game being their home opener, this game has blowout written all over it after the 76ers had such a tough game from the 2nd quarter on in their opening night loss Tuesday. Philadelphia is 27-15 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, the 76ers are a long-term 56-30 ATS in home games. The Bulls are on a 28-57 SU run in road games and when the Sixers win as a favorite they normally cover. The 76ers are on a 47-19 SU run as a favorite and they've gotten the cash in 38 of those 47 wins. With advantages all over the floor (especially with Bulls missing Lauri Markkanen) this one turns into a home blowout. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - Interesting match-up here with each team having a new head coach. I expect this to lead to plenty of points here as a pair of former Spurs assistant coaches square off. It is Mike Budenholzer for the Bucks and James Borrego for the Hornets. Milwaukee is going to be emphasizing the 3-point shot this season and they've added some key pieces relating to that and I expect to see plenty of threes fired up by Milwaukee tonight. However, the Bucks also can attack the paint as Charlotte no longer has Dwight Howard in the middle and the Hornets are definitely going toward more of a small ball lineup. It all equates to plenty of points here in the season opener as we should see a good tempo in this one. The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and also a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times they've met in Charlotte. Additionally, in games played in the first half of a season, Milwaukee has gone 43-23 to the over their last 66. Look for that trend to add another one on the high side Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Celtics won 7 of 9 meetings with the Sixers last year. Boston has also won 9 straight home games against Philly. Yet the line on this season opening game opened up at just a 5. You know where I am going here as this is a perfect example of what my contrarian picks are all about. While Boston at home looks enticing it should prove out that Philly was the right side in this one! Keep in mind, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward are back for Boston but are returning from injuries. Also, the 76ers Markelle Fultz worked hard on his shot in the off-season. He adds value to a team loaded with talent including Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and JJ Redick. Look for the highly motivated Sixers to prove to be the much hungrier team in this one and they are making some changes on defense in this one that should help them be stronger in the paint against the Celtics. Only time will tell but I feel an upset looms tonight and, keep in mind, the last 4 meetings between these teams featured a 76ers win and 3 Sixers losses but all of those Philly defeats came by a margin of 5 or less points. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Easy as ABC - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - In Cavaliers games the home team has covered 8 of the last 11. Also, Cleveland is off of 3 straight losses but hasn't lost 4 straight games since a losing streak in early to mid-January. So you have to go back nearly 5 months to find the last time the Cavs have lost 4 in a row. I don't expect that to happen here either but am happy to grab the value with the points should Cleveland fall just short here. The Cavaliers, since the calendar turned from April to May, have shot much better when on their home floor EXCEPT for Game 3. Entering that Game 3, Cleveland had shot at least 47% from the field in all 5 games and the Cavs had averaged 113.8 points per game in their 5 prior home games. The Warriors have averaged only 102.5 points per game in their last 4 road games. Golden State is on a 15-27 ATS run against teams with a winning record and the Warriors are 10-23 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 37-14 SU when at home this season and also they've gone 5-3 SU in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. Even though the Cavaliers are down 3-0 in this series, the Game 1 loss was in OT and the Game 3 defeat was a tie game very late. That said, the available points here in a game that the Cavaliers will be desperate for - at home and looking to avoid an embarrassing sweep - I like the value of LeBron James and Company as a home dog. 10* CLEVELAND

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - In Cavaliers games the home team has covered 8 of the last 10. Also, Cleveland is off of back to back losses but hasn't lost 3 straight games since a losing streak in early to mid-January. So you have to go back nearly 5 months to find the last time the Cavs have lost 3 in a row. I don't expect that to happen here either but am happy to grab the value with the points should Cleveland fall just short here. The Cavaliers, since the calendar turned from April to May, have shot much better when on their home floor. Cleveland has shot at least 47% from the field in all 5 games and the Cavs have averaged 113.8 points per game in their last 5 home games. The Warriors have averaged only 100 points per game in their last 3 road games and were held to 45.9% or less in 6 of their last 10 road games before a strong shooting effort to close out the Rockets at Houston in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State is on a 14-27 ATS run against teams with a winning record and the Warriors are 9-23 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 37-13 SU when at home this season and also they've gone 5-2 in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. With 2 days of rest between games and coming back home and having been so close to the upset win in Game 1, look for a huge effort from the Cavaliers at home in this one as they get back into the series with a great performance. 10* CLEVELAND

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - The extra rest here will serve both teams well. Not only did they have some time off between the conference finals and these NBA Finals, they now also have 2 full off days between Game 1 and Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Also, after this, the teams will have 2 more full off days before Game 3 as the series then shifts east. The point is that the players are rested and they know they have more rest coming. As a result, there will be no holding back on Sunday evening and I expect plenty of big scoring runs. The Cavaliers are 39-18 to the over when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more and that includes 17-8 this season. Now, of course, I know Game 1 included OT but, keep in mind, it went over the total before overtime. Also, it is hard to be impressed with the Cavaliers defense when one considers that the Warriors did hit over 50% from the field for the game, scored 17 points in OT (just 5 minutes), and scored at least 27 points in 3 of the 4 quarters in the game. Of course LeBron James is going to get his points and the Warriors showed in Game 1 they're not going to stop him. In fact, the Cavs scored at least 26 points in 3 of the 4 quarters. The point is that if a "normal" quarter is at least 27-26 (53 points) you can see why I like the over in this match-up. Adding to the value is that neither team shot as well as they normally do from three point land in Game 1. Look for better outside shooting in Game 2 and the Cavaliers will once again be very determined after falling just short in Game 1. That said, I expect this game to still be close enough late to encourage late fouls and plenty of "scramble points" at the end should we need them. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. 10* OVER the total in Golden State

Easy as ABC - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Of course this game is televised on ABC so that is where the play title comes from but truly the hope is that this cover is indeed as "Easy as ABC" tonight. The fact is that the Warriors barely got by a Rockets team sans Chris Paul in the final two games of the series and that also short horrific from three point land. Of course Houston relies heavily on the 3-ball so the nearly unbelievably poor shooting from downtown was ultimately the nail in the coffin for the Rockets. Now, after winning by only 9 at Houston in Game 7 despite the Rockets being without Paul and unable to "throw the ball in the ocean" (their shooting was so OFF!), the Warriors are as high as a 13 point favorite against a Cavaliers team that is starting to believe they can pull off the unthinkable. Keep in mind, Boston is VERY well-coached and yet the Cavaliers still managed to get past the Celtics in Boston in Game 7 with a valiant effort by LeBron James and Company. The Warriors, in the Rockets series, certainly haven't looked as invincible as they have in the past and the Cavs are well aware of the fact that they are being given absolutely "no chance" in this series. Highly motivated and well rested, LeBron and his eager teammates are absolutely going to hang around in this game one and put up a big challenge to the Warriors. Simply put, I just don't see this game being decided by more than single digits. Cavs are 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season and the Warriors are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season. 10* Top Play CLEVELAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - I will not be surprised if Chris Paul plays tonight and if he is also very effective. However, even if he doesn't, one should not forget that the Rockets (sans Paul) led the Warriors by double digits at the half on Saturday and that game was at Golden State. Yes they got blown out in the second half but Houston certainly garnered some confidence from that first half performance and now they get Game 7 at home. The Rockets are 41-9 SU at home this season and 21-6 SU when playing with revenge and 15-3 SU when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. The Houston offense has certainly struggled for long stretches on the road in these playoffs but the Rockets have averaged 112 points per game in their last 7 home games and I expect a huge performance tonight. The Warriors are a long-term 6-10 SU when tied in a playoff series and that includes 2-3 SU and ATS the last 3 seasons combined. In other words they are far from "automatic" in a spot like this and the fact is that these points are very generous. The Warriors have covered only 22 of their last 60 versus teams with a winning record! Golden State is 9-16 (36%) ATS their last 25 road games. I am expecting the upset here but am grabbing the points because if the Rockets do fall short it is likely to be by just a bucket or two. They are not going down without a fight here whether Paul plays or not. 10* HOUSTON

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - The flow (and pace!) of the game "totally" changed in Game 6 after Kevin Love was knocked out of the game with a head injury. The Cavs big man is going to miss this game too and I look for Cleveland to again try to "force the issue" with LeBron James. I also expect the Celtics to continue to be content to let LeBron "get his" while simply focusing on all other aspects of their own game. That said, Boston has scored much better when at home in these playoffs. Not only are the Celtics 10-0 at home in the post-season, they've averaged 108.7 points per game in those games. That said, and with this total now falling below the 200 mark, I see great value with the over in this match-up. Keep in mind that James has fought hard to try and make yet another trip to the NBA Finals. The Celtics are also very hungry to finally get back to the Finals. That said, and with the loser going home for the summer after this game, I also expect late fouls to help our cause (if needed). The fact that this game is projected to be a tight one means late fouls and hoisted three-pointers are likely to be a part of the "end game" as even if down 10 points with a minute to go the team on the wrong end of that knows there is "no tomorrow". The over is 9-3 this season when the Celtics are off of a loss by a double digit margin and I look for another over in this one after they got blown at Cleveland on Friday. 8* OVER the total in Boston

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - Well aware of the fact that the Celtics are 10-0 at home in the post-season. Also well aware of the fact that the Cavaliers are without Kevin Love for this game. However, after he went out in Game 6 (head injury), the Cavs were "off and running" thanks in large part to LeBron James. The fact is I simply can not play against him in a Game 7. While it is true that one man does not make a team, he is also a leader for this Cavaliers team and the fact is that his team has a 5-0 record in his last 5 Game 7's. The last loss was all the way back in 2008 and, ironically, that defeat came at the hands of the Celtics. However, this is LeBron's 15th season and that game was 10 years ago! James has matured, of course, a ton since then and I look for his team record in Game 7 match-ups to make it 6 in a row on Sunday night! I know venue has had a lot do with it but lets also not forget that the Celtics have lost 3 of the last 4 games in this series. It is hard to believe that with coaching adjustments at half-time (Brad Stevens is a fantastic coach) and with Love being out of the game, the Celtics still couldn't close this out in Game 6. Boston has had so many chances to really truly take a stranglehold on this series (after being up 2-0) and they just never did it. Now they pay the ultimate price for that in my opinion. It is VERY rare for a 7-game series to go 7 games and have the home team win every single game and I look for this one to avoid that rare exception in the record books too. Remember James and Company won Game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2016 at Golden State! I am calling for the upset but will grab the points being offered! 10* CLEVELAND

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 9:05 ET - This total is 15 points below where the total was posted when these teams met here in Game 4. The markets have over-adjusted because the last two games have been so low-scoring. The fact that Golden State and Houston were each held below 100 points in each of the last two games is truly an unbelievable result. It won't happen again here. Chris Paul is a key defender for the Rockets and his absence is going to really hurt Houston on that end of the floor. Keep in mind Eric Gordon will get a lot of minutes for the Rockets here as a result and he is a strong player on the offensive end. What we are unlikely to see happen is the Rockets James Harden going 0 for 11 again from 3-point land. Also, the Warriors had averaged 121 points per game in their 4 home games prior to their dismal effort in Game 4. Look for an explosion on the offensive end from Golden State here and look for the Rockets to shoot much better as the Warriors are going to be willing to turn this one into a "run and gun affair" with Houston. 8* OVER the total in Golden State

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - The way I see it the Cavs had their chance in this series and blew it in Game 5. Cleveland had all the momentum after winning big in Games 3 and 4 at home but then went and laid an egg on the road Wednesday. Knowing that Game 7 would also be on the road and that Boston is a perfect 10-0 at home in the post-season, this is in the back of the minds of the Cavaliers whether they admit to it or not. The fact is that the Celtics now have the Cavs on the ropes and if Cleveland does somehow pull this one out I expect it to be a very tight win. Keep in mind, prior to the blowout wins in Games 3 and 4 of this series and finishing off the Raptors in Game 4 in a rout, the Cavaliers 6 prior home wins had all come by a margin of 6 points or less! In fact they are known this season for just squeaking by in games. That is why the Cavaliers are 23-49 ATS as a favorite this season and 16-33 ATS in home games! Boston is 23-10 ATS as an underdog this season. The last 5 times the Cavs were off of a double digit loss they've actually gone only 3-2 SU. In other words, even bouncing back for a SU win here is not a given and also 2 of those 3 SU wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 7 points off of a double digit loss would have resulted in a 1-4 ATS record for the Cavs since April 1st. I am grabbing the big dog value with the Celtics in this one as finally we see a road team cover in this series! 10* BOSTON

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Tuesday's game saw the total close at 227.5 in a number of shops with some even as high as a 228. Of course after the dismal shooting effort in Game 4, the markets have had to adjust but a double digit adjustment is something not normally seen. In other words, it is not the odds makers doing this as much as it is the markets. The odds makers opened up Tuesday's total at 224 and this Game 5 total at 220. That is a difference of only 4 points. But the markets hammered the over in Game 4 and got crushed and now they're hammering the under in Game 5 and I suspect they will get crushed again. This morning's total (as low as 218.5) is nearly 10 points below where we were before tip-off in Game 4. The value is too much to ignore because you know that two fantastic shooting teams are going to find their rhythm again after each of them was held below 40% from the field in Tuesday's game. This season there were only 3 times that the Warriors were on the road following a game in which they were held below 100 points. The average point total of the next game in those 3 occurrences was 232 points! Also, when on the road this season following a game in which they allowed less than 100 points, Golden State went 8-2 to the over on the season! There has only been 1 under in the Rockets last 6 home games and that was Game 3 of this series which totaled 225 points. In other words, given the low number on tonight's total that also would have resulted in an over. The Rockets are averaging 114.2 points per game in their last 6 home games and the Warriors should match them bucket for bucket as you can tell by the spread on this game being a pick'em. In my opinion the best value (and it is strong value) is the over in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics didn't just lose Game 3 in Cleveland, they got crushed. Boston followed that up with a better effort in Game 4 but they still were down by double digits nearly the entire game. The points is that the Cavaliers didn't just beat them, they destroyed them. As much as I respect the coaching of Brad Stevens, the head man for Boston can only do so much and the veteran edge the Cavs roster has is paying dividends as this series has gone on. The fact that the Cavaliers didn't just win but won huge in Cleveland means they now have all the momentum plus a ton of confidence as this series goes back to Boston for Game 5. Keep in mind, Boston has gone 9-0 on their home floor in the post-season but this game is priced this way for a reason and it is certainly no mistake. Look for the Cavs to get the upset win Wednesday and take a stranglehold on this series. LeBron James is back in the zone and what people don't realize is their hot shooting has been there since before this series started. It is not as if the Cavs are just getting "lucky" with their shots. They've been on fire dating back to the Raptors series. Yes they had one very poor shooting effort (Game 1 of this series) but in their other 6 games the past 3 weeks they've hit a combined 52.2% from the field. That is NOT one game, that is a combined average for SIX games! That is HOT shooting that Boston only wishes they could achieve. The Celtics have been held under 44.8% in 5 of their last 6 games. Big difference here and the Cavs have the best player on the floor, the momentum, the experience edge, and the confidence factor. The Cavaliers are a long-term 17-6 SU their last 23 games versus the Celtics and that includes 8-4 SU and ATS their last 12 in Boston. Yes, the Celtics took it to them in Game 1 here but the Cavs were up 7 points at the half in Game 2 on this floor. With the way the tide has turned in this series, look for LeBron and Company to again jump on the Celtics early with a big first half in Boston and, this time, they hang on for the win over a dejected Celtics team that is now (though they wouldn't admit it) doubting themselves. 10* CLEVELAND

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors Andre Iguodala is listed as doubtful for this game. He is a starter and he is important come playoff time because he is a very solid player on the defensive end. That said, this should help lead to a high-scoring match-up in Game 4. You know the Rockets are going to bounce back after scoring just 85 points in Game 3. However, the Warriors offensive production is unlikely to be slowed down on their home floor where they have averaged 121 points per game their last 4 games. The over is 9-2 in Houston's Tuesday games this season and the Rockets are a long-term 5-2 to the over after they were held to 85 points or less in their prior game. Golden State is 22-13 to the over when leading in a playoff series. Also, the Warriors are a long-term 13-4 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. Factor all this in with the banged up knee plaguing Iguodala and you have the right "recipe" for an absolute shootout in this one. 10* OVER the total in Golden State

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - Celtics games have now recorded 3 straight unders. The over is 5-1 this season when Boston enters a game on an "under streak" of 3 or more games. Celtics coach Brad Stevens, one of the best in the business, is making some adjustments here and I expect it to result in a lot more offense. Boston scored just 86 points and got blasted in Game 3 as they lost by a margin of 30 points. The over is 8-3 this season when the Celtics are off of a game they lost by a double digit margin. The over is a long-term 17-11 when the Cavaliers enter a game on an "under streak" of 3 or more games. The total on this game is currently 206.5 as of early morning on game day. The last 13 times that Cleveland has been off of a win by a double digit margin, their next game has totaled 207 points or more 11 of 13 times! In other words, look for the Cavs offense to stay red hot here (particularly since they are at home but also look for Stevens to make some adjustments to get his teams offensive production right back up where it should be. Keep in mind the Cavaliers had allowed an average of 107 points per game before Saturday's blowout win and, on the season, the Cavs allowed 109 points per game. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - You know the Warriors will be out for blood here after a 22 point loss in Game 2 on Wednesday. However, look for Golden State to respond with offense, not defense. The fact is that the Warriors over should go to 6-3 the last 9 times they've played a game with 3 or more days of rest between games. Fresh legs for Golden State coupled with being on their home floor coupled with being off of a blowout loss all equates to a run and gun affair here. You know the Rockets will play with plenty of confidence after knocking off the Warriors by 22 points at home. That is going to lead to a shootout here. Houston has averaged 113 points per game in their last 9 games. The Warriors have averaged 119 points per game in their last 3 home games. Golden State's most recent home game stayed under the total but the Warriors entered that game with a record of 7-1 to the over in their 8 prior home games. The Rockets are 7-3 to the over in their past 10 games. Game 3 went over the total despite the Warriors shooting only 30% from three point land and you know another performance like that is highly unlikely. That said, this one should easily crush the posted O/U Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Golden State

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Tremendous value here as everyone expects the Cavaliers to bounce back since they are at home and they have dug an 0-2 hole in this series. There are many problems with that theory however. First off, this is LeBron James weakest supporting cast in his tenure with the Cavs. Secondly, the Cavaliers best shot for a blowout home win would be to get hot from the outside and start draining shot after shot. The long layoff in this series won't help in that regard. These teams haven't played since Tuesday and Boston is 5-1 SU and ATS this season when playing with 3 or more days of rest this season while Cleveland is 0-4 SU and ATS with those same parameters this season! The issue for the Cavs is that generally when they are shooting cold (and certainly the Celtics are tough defensively) they stay cold. The Cavaliers this season are an ugly 1-6 ATS when they enter a game having been held under 100 points in each of their 2 prior games. In other words, don't look for the Cavs to start suddenly draining all kinds of shots in this game. In fact, with their loss in Game 2 (scored 94) after scoring just 83 in Game 1, Cleveland is now 4-17 ATS this season when off of a game where they were held under 100 points! Should the Cavs find a way to get a home win and crawl back into this series don't be surprised if it is a non-covering win. Cleveland is only 8-6 SU in their last 14 games and 6 of those 8 wins have come by a margin of 4 points or less! Look for the Cavaliers to drop to 0-5 ATS on the season when they are playing with 3 or more days of rest. 10* BOSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Wednesday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets Money Line (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Rockets haven't lost back to back games in 4 months! You have to go all the way back to early January to find the last time Houston was defeated in consecutive games. Yes I know this is the Warriors but you can bank on the Rockets making some solid adjustments here. While Golden State is still going to "get theirs" in this one, I certainly don't expect the Warriors to again connect on 62% of their shots inside from the 3-point arc. Look for the Rockets to improve on their perfect mark in this situation - 9-0 SU the L9 times they were off of a loss. That is another reason I am suggesting the money line here as it is offering great line value and you don't necessarily have to lay the 1 or 1.5 points (as of early game day morning). Just grab the money line and look for the Rockets to even up this series at home! Golden State, dating back to early March, is 0-4 SU and ATS the last 4 times they've entered a game on a SU winning streak of 3 or more games. 10* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - You know that LeBron James and Company are going to respond here but they have had issues on defense all season long and are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to their defensive efficiency rating. With that said, look for this one to surprise many and be a shootout. The Cavaliers are 11-5 to the over in Tuesday games game this season. Cleveland is also 24-14 to the over when playing with revenge. After a loss by a double digit margin, the Cavs are 32-19 to the over. The Celtics are 18-10 to the over this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. That is because it is hard to keep up defensive intensity when a team is off of an easy blowout win. Also, the over is 19-10 Boston's last 29 versus teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Also, versus teams that average 106 points or more, the Celtics are on a 24-12 run to the over. Before game 1 stayed under the total, Cleveland was on a 5-1 run to the over their prior 6 games and had been shooting the ball very well. Also, prior to that Game 1 under, the Celtics had gone 10-1 to the over in their last 11 home games. After a rare OFF night for the Cavaliers in the offensive end, look for things to return to "normal" Tuesday in Game Two. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Game #732 Monday 8* Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - There is a big difference between this Rockets team and the one that the Warriors faced two years ago in the first round and demolished in 4 of the games for a 4-1 series win. Of course one could also argue that Golden State did not have Kevin Durant then and that is true. However, did you also know that in the 4 games that Durant has played in against the Rockets as a member of the Warriors, GS has gone just 1-3? You read that right...these teams have met 7 times since Durant went to the Warriors and he has sat out 3 of those games with the other 4 being a 3-1 edge for Houston. Now, about those changes for the Rockets...they are a totally revamped team in terms of the defense. Sure they slack off at times during the regular season (all NBA teams do) but with the personnel changes they've made since the last time these teams met in the post-season, the Rockets went from being the lower half of the league for defensive efficiency rating last season to being one of the top teams in the league in defensive efficiency this season. I like the fact that the line on this game opened up with Houston at -2.5 in a number of big shops and yet now, as of Thursday evening, the Rockets are such a slim choice that they can be had on the money line in the -115 to -120 range which is what I am recommending here! Keep in mind, Houston has won 46 of their last 54 games...a 46-8 SU run since January 8th. The Warriors just won back to back games to finish off the Pelicans but, prior to that, Golden State was only 13-12 their last 25 games. Yes, Stephen Curry was out but don't underestimate the confidence and momentum edges that the Rockets have here which is further strengthened by the fact that they were able to earn home court edge as a result of  Golden State's late season stumbles. Give me the hungrier team on their home floor and currently getting little respect from the markets. The personnel changes the Rockets have made means much better rotations on defense and this Houston team is also seeing phenomenal production again from a hungry Chris Paul. 8* HOUSTON

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #734 Sunday 8* Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:35 ET - Some shops actually opened this one up with the Celtics as a favorite in Game 1. Of course the markets love the Cavaliers and have already pushed Cleveland to the favorite in this match-up as of Thursday evening. Rest is a good thing but sometimes too much rest can be a bad thing. In this case, the Cavs could have too much. While the Celtics will have last played on Wednesday, the Cavaliers will have had nearly a full week off as they wrapped up their sweep of the Raptors on Monday. That could be a significant factor here because what allowed the Cavs to steamroll Toronto was, in part, the fact that Cleveland's shooting got red hot after having struggled at times in the series with Indiana. The Celtics have arguably the top coach in the league and don't sell Philly short either. That was a very good Sixers team that Boston just got past. That said, Brad Stevens gives the Celtics the X-factor here as he definitely gives the Celtics the coaching edge in this series. In terms of the Game 1 match-up, I like the fact that Boston is at home and Cleveland could be rusty. Note that the Celtics have been an incredible ATS team all season and they certainly have not cooled off. Boston is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. As for the Cavaliers, they got a dominating cover over Toronto in Game 4 to complete the sweep but they entered that game on a 4-8 ATS run. The Cavs went 1-2 ATS versus the Celtics in the regular season and Cleveland is a mediocre 8-7 SU in their last 15 road games. Celtics are 11-1 SU L12 home games. 8* BOSTON

THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - Most all of you have likely heard the expression "let sleeping dogs lie". It is an old saying that essentially means this: avoid interfering in a situation that is currently causing no problems but might do so as a result of such interference. Here is the problem with the Celtics and what they did in Game 4 at Philly. Certainly entering the game the 76ers were dogs and Boston would have been better off not doing anything to provoke them. Instead the game became quite "testy" and at one point Philly native Marcus Morris (Celtics player) flashed a 3-0 signal with his hands to remind the Sixers what the series score was. Needless to say that is like twisting a stick into the belly of a sleeping dog. Philly head coach Brett Brown made a great move by starting TJ McConnell in Game 4 and he had a career game for the 76ers as it paid off huge for Philly. Lets not forget the Celtics are extremely well coached but still would be a much better team if they had Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward on the floor. The more talented team in this series (with those two guys missing for Boston) is Philadelphia. They are plenty alive and awake now and remember they lost Game 3 in OT and also the Game 2 loss at Boston was a narrow one. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA but the Sixers are well aware that they just need one win here to send this series back to Philly with a chance to tie it up. They are rejuvenated and ironically one of the few times in the NHL in which a team won a series after being down 3-0 was when the Philadelphia (Flyers) rallied against the Boston (Bruins) in 2010. Boston had the home ice edge there just like the Celtics do in this series. This Sixers team is absolutely rejuvenated and revitalized after the Game 4 win and they carry extra motivation after some of what went on in Game 4 on the court. I also like the fact that at one point the line on this game was 76ers -1.5 but the markets are loving the Celtics here and now it is Boston that is much as a -1.5 point favorite as of early game day morning. I love fading line moves like this and look for Boston to drop to 5-8 SU the last 13 times they've been leading in a playoff series as the Sixers improve to 24-11 SU the last 35 times they were off of a win by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 10:35 ET - New Orleans was held to just 92 points Sunday as they endured a horrific shooting performance versus the Warriors. The Pelicans are 12-5 to the over the last 17 times they've been held to 102 points or less. Also, the Game 4 loss was just the 4th time this season that New Orleans has been held to 39.5% or less from the field. The game after each of the first 3 occurrences went over the total all 3 times! Look for the record in this situation to improve to a perfect 4-0 this season. However, the issue for the Pelicans is the fact that they won't be able to stop the Warriors potent attack. Golden State is at home and wants to close this out tonight and avoid a trip back to New Orleans. As a result, look for the Warriors to push the pace here as they attempt to push the Pelicans right out of the post-season! The over is 7-1 in Golden State's last 8 home games. Also, after a loss by 10 points or more New Orleans is 12-5 to the over this season plus the over is 27-14 in Pelicans games in which they are playing with revenge. The over is 21-12 when the Warriors are leading in a playoff series and they'll keep their foot on the gas for all 48 minutes of this one at home. 10* OVER the total in Golden State

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 8* Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - Much is being made of the Rockets defense (and they do deserve some credit) but the Jazz certainly missed a lot of shots they should have made in the past two games. There have only been 3 other times this season that Utah was held to 41.7% or less in 2 consecutive games. The result in that next game was 3-0 SU/ATS with an average SU margin of 14 points per win. Also, two of the victories were wins versus Cleveland and Golden State where the Jazz were a dog in each and won the games outright including blasting the Warriors by 30 points. Now I am certainly not suggesting that type of road rout happens here but what I am absolutely expecting is Utah to hang tough in this elimination game! Look for the Jazz take their record to a perfect 4-0 ATS mark in this situation. There have only been 6 other times this season that the Rockets have held the opposition to 42.6% or less in back to back games. The ATS result in that next game for Houston was 1-5 ATS. Utah is 19-7 SU (and 17-9 ATS) their last 26 versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Even with Rubio still out and Exum now out as well, the Jazz are not going to go down without a fight here. Houston is a long-term 20-45 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more and that includes an ugly 2-11 ATS this season. The Jazz perfect ATS record in this situation this season seals it for me! 8* UTAH 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - Most will be looking for the Cavaliers, up 3-0 in this series, to close it out on their home floor Monday. However, even if Cleveland does that, it would not be too surprising if the Cavs fall short of the cover. After all, with Game 3's non-covering win, the Cavaliers are now 20-49 ATS as a favorite this season and also 13-33 ATS in home games! The loss for the Raptors marked the first time this season that they've lost 3 straight games. That is certainly noteworthy as Toronto is 5-2 ATS in recent seasons when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, the Raptors are 5-0 ATS (100% PERFECT) this season when they are an underdog of 4 or more points. As of very early game day morning, Toronto is catching a half-dozen points here and this is offering great value with the hungry underdog. The Raptors, with their cover Saturday, are now 6-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games. I expect Toronto to gut out a win and stay alive in this series. However, if they do fall short, look for it to be by 4 points or less. 6 of Cleveland's 7 playoff wins in this post-season have come by 4 points or less. 10* TORONTO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics @ 6:05 ET - Even with OT Saturday, Game 3 still stayed under the total. However, the 76ers shot 39.2% from the field as they lost their 3rd straight game. The last 5 times that Philadelphia has been held to 41.7% or less from the field they've bounced back by averaging 114.4 points in their next game. The Sixers were 8-4 to the over in their dozen games prior to Saturday's low-scoring loss. Philly is 11-6 to the over this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Celtics were 13-3 to the over in their 16 games prior to Game 3's low-scoring win. Boston is a long-term 7-3 to the over in 2nd round playoff games. Also, when facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game, the Celtics are on a 23-10 run to the over. Look for the 76ers offensive production to bounce back in a "win or go home" Game 4 but they've yet to stop the Celtics in this series and I don't see that changing here. As a result, look for plenty of points in this one! 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz were held to just 92 points on their home floor in the Game 3 loss. Utah is a perfect 6-0 to the over they last 6 times they were off of a game where they scored 96 points or less. The Jazz should respond here and they might even get an extra boost with the return of guard Ricky Rubio. When trailing in a playoff series, Utah has gone 4-2 to the over. Also, the over is a perfect 9-0 in Sunday games for the Jazz this season! Houston is 4-1 to the over in this post-season when they are leading in a playoff series. The Rockets started slow in this post-season but they've now averaged 114.4 points per game their last 5 games. Houston is a 5-point favorite in this match-up. If the game hits right near the line and the Rockets hit their recent scoring average, you're talking about a 114-109 type game. That covers this total by double digits and that is exactly what I am looking for here. Houston likely to shoot even better from three point land as the Rockets rarely have 3 straight sub-par games from beyond the arc. The Jazz fight back hard in hopes of evening this series up. The result is plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Utah

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Sunday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - The markets, as expected, are all over the Warriors here after they lost Game 3 at New Orleans. This has driven the Golden State line from a -4.5 up to a -6 as of early game day morning. Keep in mind the Warriors are on a 1-4 ATS run their last 5 games and they continue to be over-valued. Golden State is also 8-22 ATS their last 28 games versus teams with a winning record. The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in this post-season and I don't expect them to fall flat here even though Game 3 was such a big win. Playing again Sunday on their home floor certainly helps and New Orleans is 14-6 SU / 13-7 ATS this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. Also, the Pelicans are 4-0 SU and ATS when they are at home and the posted total on a game is 230 points or more. In Game 1 of this series Golden State attempted 32 free throws. New Orleans, through the first three games of this series have TOTALED only 32 free throw attempts. Even with this disparity at the charity stripe, the Pelicans have covered 2 of the 3 games and I feel we're getting excellent home dog line value here. I won't hesitate to take it. 8* NEW ORLEANS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - This line doesn't make sense which is precisely why I am backing the dog here. The Cavs just finished up winning both games at Toronto including demolishing the Raptors in convincing fashion in Game 2 and yet now they are at home and opened up as only a 3.5 point favorite. Of course markets jumped all over that and have driven the line all the way up to as high as a 5 as of early game day morning. Going contrarian as per usual I am on the other side of this move. The Cavaliers only turned the ball over a total of 8 times in the first two games. This is ridiculous and will change. The Cavs averaged 14 turnovers per game in their prior 8 games before averaging just 4 turnovers per game their last 2. As for the Raptors they had forced an average of 13 turnovers per game in their 4 games previous to allowing an average of only 4 in the last two games versus the Cavs. Also, Cleveland is not going to shoot 59.5% from the field again in Game 3 like they did in Game 2. It didn't matter what they were throwing up Thursday night it was going in. That is helping to lead to value here for the hungry Raptors. Toronto is 14-4 SU off of an upset loss as a favorite this season and they also are 16-5 SU after allowing 115 points or more. The Cavaliers are just 20-47 ATS as a favorite and only 13-31 ATS in home games this season. Cleveland also is 2-10 ATS in Saturday games this season. More of the same here. 10* TORONTO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 5:05 ET - This number looks big, doesn't it? Of course that is why the Celtics have been a popular choice and the spread on this one has dropped from double digits down to as low as 8.5 as of early game day morning. Don't be fooled. The fact is that the fired up 76ers are going to be full of intensity and fire for this critical Game 3 match-up in Philly. Down 0-2 in the series and with their backs against the wall, look for full-on intensity from the Sixers at both ends of the floor and they won't take their foot off of the gas the entire game. Since the calendar turned to 2018, the 76ers have been at home off of a loss 4 times. In those 4 games Philadelphia is a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS and I look for another home blowout here by a double digit margin. The Celtics haven't played a road game in over a week and they are 10-17 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. The 76ers are 32-11 SU (and 29-14 ATS) in home games this season and they will not be denied in this must-win spot. The Sixers are 10-1 SU (and 9-2 ATS) in their last 11 home games. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #516 Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 10:35 ET - 3-point shooting comes and goes. The Rockets were the hot team in Game 1 and the Jazz were the hot team in Game 2 from beyond the arc. However, lets talk about what is going on inside the arc so far in this series. Houston has made 48 of 108 shots from 2-point land for a 44% shooting percentage while Utah has made a ridiculous 59 of 105 shots from inside the arc for a stellar 56% shooting percentage. You can tell who is getting the higher percentage shots / better looks at the basket so far in this series. Also, the Jazz have a shot 59.6% from the free throw line so far in this series. That is unusual and certainly won't continue based on their full season mark of 77.9% from the charity stripe. The Rockets defense has been subpar and they are 3-7 ATS this season when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive overs. The point is that when Houston is not playing good defense and games are flying over the total, they generally don't cover spreads either! Also, the Rockets are a long-term 6-11 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series. Utah is 3-1 SU (and ATS) when tied in a playoff series and they'll ride the momentum of the big Game 2 win plus returning to their home floor tonight. Note that the Jazz are 16-6 SU after scoring 115 points or more in a game this season and also 19-5 SU in their last 24 games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* UTAH

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Friday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors took the first two games of this series on their home floor and are now on a 3-game winning streak. Golden State, when on a winning streak of 3 or more games this season, has gone just 8-19 ATS. The Warriors are also on just an 8-21 ATS run versus teams with a winning record. When playing with two days of rest between games, Golden State is 6-10 ATS this season while New Orleans is 8-4 ATS (and SU!) in that situation this season. I am expecting the upset here with the Pelicans but certainly am going to grab the generous points being offered. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in this post-season and they also went 3-0 SU this season in home games with a posted total of 230 points or more. The Pelicans did not suffer an ATS loss in any of those 3 games. As you can see from the huge O/U on this, a lot of points are expected and I look for the home team to prevail at the betting window as Golden State drops to 7-11 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 230 points or more. The Pelicans have had only 20 free throw attempts so far in this series while the Warriors have had 59 attempts from the charity stripe! That disparity will not continue now that the series shifts to the Smoothie King Center! 8* NEW ORLEANS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - The Celtics won Game 1 and that is perfect for setting up insane value here. Don't be surprised if that is the only game that Boston wins in this series. The scene will shift to Philly for Games 3 and 4 after tonight's game and I just don't see the Celtics winning again here. Did the 76ers perhaps come in overconfident Monday? One thing is for certainly Philadelphia head coach Brett Brown will have his team ready to go here and Boston is NOT going to make 17 of 36 three pointers again! Keep in mind, the Celtics outscored the Sixers by 36 points from three point land! If the teams were just "even" from beyond the arc, Philadelphia wins Game 1 by a 20 point margin! The 76ers dominated the boards in Game 1 and also did a better job of getting to the free throw line as they had very nearly twice as many attempts as Boston. Additionally, from inside the arc, Philly made 30 shots while the Celtics made only 24. There is an old saying about "live by the three die by the three" and the fact is that Boston only won Game 1 because of 3-point shooting and that is certainly not expected to continue here. In their 5 prior games, the Celtics were held to 34.6% or less in all 5 games! Boston is also banged up and the Sixers certainly hold the "health edge" here. When playing with 2 days of rest between games the 76ers went 12-4 ATS this season while the Celtics went 6-8 SU. Look for Boston to drop to 3-7 SU the last 10 times they have held a lead in a playoff series. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Early Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Thursday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 6:05 ET - The Raptors let one get away in Game 1. Off of that disappointing loss I do expect a huge response here. Yes the Cavaliers showed great resiliency in coming back Tuesday but it was more than just being purely resilient. They also made 14 three pointers while the Raptors made just 9. That is a 15 point difference. In other words, without that disparity from beyond the arc, Toronto wins the game by 14 points. I am happy to lay the half-dozen points here as the Raptors are 14-3 SU when off of an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Cavaliers just got what was only their 2nd cover in 8 games so far this in this post-season. Also, the Cavs have a losing record ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog this season. Cleveland is still just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games versus teams with a winning record. The Raptors are also 6-2 SU when playing with home loss revenge this season. 22 of the Cavs last 26 SU losses have come by a margin of 7 or more points! Each of the Raptors last 8 SU wins have come by a margin of 8 points or more. 8* TORONTO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - There are some statistical outliers from Game 1 of this series that make this a fantastic spot to grab the big dog. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 1 by only 14 points even though the Rockets hit a ridiculous 17 of 32 from three point land and Utah made only 13 of 22 free throws! Yes, Houston is known for their 3-point shooting but they hit only 36.2% on the season. The Jazz actually hit 36.5% of their threes on the season! As for that unusual free throw shooting, Utah made 77% of their shots from the charity stripe on the season. The point is that, given normal shooting of free throws and three pointers, the JAZZ would have WON Game 1 by 8 points! That's right, Utah would have made 1 more three and 4 more free throws while the Rockets would have made 5 less threes. The result is a 22 point swing from a 14 point win for Houston to a win for Utah by a margin of 8 points. The beauty here is we don't need the Jazz to win, we just need them to cover and, as you can see, Game 1 had some crazy shooting results and yet the Rockets still barely covered! I am all over the value with big dog Utah in Game 2. The Jazz are 18-5 SU their last 23 game against team that average 106 points or more per game and they are also 10-6 SU/ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Rockets are 5-10 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Certainly the extra time off sometimes effects the shooting stroke of Houston's outside shooters. 10* UTAH 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Steph Curry is expected back for tonight's game. Of course this has resulted in a jump in this line. However, will he be 100%? Will he be ready to step right in without disrupting the current flow of the Warriors? The fact is that he has hardly played in the past two months. Will there be an adjustment phase for both Curry and for Golden State in terms of working him back into the mix? I absolutely believe so and there is excellent value with a hungry Pelicans team off of an embarrassing loss in Game 1 and catching huge points in Game 2. Keep in mind Golden State was just "making everything" in the first half of that Game 1 victory and that got New Orleans into a big hole early. That will not be the case tonight and you're going to see the Pelicans playing with plenty of resolve and determination after the embarrassment of Game 1's result. Keep in mind, New Orleans entered this series on a 9-0 SU and ATS run their last 9 games. The Pelicans have averaged 116.5 points per game their last 10 games. New Orleans is 7-4 ATS (and 8-3 SU) when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, the Pelicans are 28-16 ATS in road games this season. The Warriors are only 6-9 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games and also are 1-8 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Golden State is on an 8-20 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they are over-priced here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #558 Tuesday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - The Raptors come into this series with some extra rest while the Cavaliers are off of a grueling 7-game series with the Pacers. Not only did Indiana push Cleveland to the brink, the Pacers also outplayed the Cavs for much of the series. The Cavaliers were held under 45% from the field in 6 of the 7 games! The Pacers actually shot 48.1% in the series and that included making at least 45% of their shots in all 7 games against Cleveland. Of course the Cavaliers defense has been under fire for much of this season as they have allowed 109.2 points per game in their 89 games (including 1st round of these playoffs). Toronto got into "playoff mode" as their series got deeper versus the Wizards. The Raptors won the final two games and, over the last 3 games Toronto held Washington to only 42.5% from the field. The Raptors were swept out of the post-season by the Cavs last year in the 2nd round. This season certainly will play out much differently and Toronto should take Game 1 in convincing fashion. The Raptors are 37-7 SU at home this season (including playoffs) and the Cavaliers have covered just 1 of their 7 post-season games. Also, Cleveland is on an 11-19 ATS run versus teams with a winning record! 8* TORONTO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:05 ET - Sixers head coach Brett Brown spent many years on the Spurs coaching staff and learned plenty from San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich. That said, Brown knows exactly what to do in this spot. He has a very talented Philadelphia team that can put up a ton of points in a hurry and they are well-rested with fresh legs here as they have not played since Monday! Brown knows he is catching a weary Celtics team that just finished battling a 7-game series with the Bucks that wrapped up on Saturday. The 76ers will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days while Boston will be playing their 6th game in 11 days! You can plainly see which team is going to be fresher here and coach Brown is smart enough to have his team "run and gun" here. That could stake Philly to an early lead which helps take the crowd out of it but it also will allow the fresh legs of the 76ers to wear down a Celtics team coming off of that grueling battle with the Bucks. The Boston over is 11-3 their last 14 games. Also, the Celtics are 21-9 to the over their last 30 games when they face a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Look for the Philadelphia over to go to 4-1 this season when they are playing with 3 or more days of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Sunday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 3:35 ET - The Jazz are without point guard Ricky Rubio and the line has really jumped on this game as a result. Utah is approaching being a dog by a dozen points here. Keep in mind, they lost Rubio to a strained hamstring very early in their series clinching win over Oklahoma City Friday. In other words, they played just fine without him. Sure Rubio contributes in a lot of ways but it certainly hadn't been his shooting in the Thunder series. He was in an awful slump and the time out with the hamstring injury may not be such a bad thing for Rubio (to get back on track) or for the Jazz as they'll compensate well for his absence here. Utah has multiple ways to modify their lineup sans Rubio and they'll be just fine here so I am glad to contrarian and grab the extra value here as everyone jumps on the Rockets at home. Houston struggled to find their rhythm on offense for long stretches in their series with the Timberwolves. They did not shoot the ball particularly well until the Game 5 victory. Now the Rockets will have to contend with a much tougher defense than what Minnesota presented. The Jazz use their defense to take down better offensive teams. That is why Utah is on an 18-4 SU run (16-6 ATS) versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, the Jazz are 6-2 ATS in Sunday games this season. The Rockets are just 4-8 ATS their last 12 games. Also, when Houston enters a game on a totals streak of 3 or more consecutive overs, they've gone 2-6 ATS this season. Look for the Jazz defense to be the difference maker here. 10* UTAH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 1:05 ET - Pacers are 13-4 SU and ATS in Sunday games this season. Indiana 37-19 ATS in games versus divisional opponents. Pacers 11-4 ATS in playoff games after demolishing the Cavaliers in Game 6 to force this Game 7 in Cleveland. Versus teams that allow an average of 106 points or more per game, the Pacers are 27-13 ATS. The Cavs have home court edge in Game 7 but that certainly has not proven to be an edge at the betting window! Cleveland is 13-31 ATS in home games this season! The Cavaliers are only 4-8 ATS in first round playoff games. While one would expect them to bounce back off of the ugly loss in Game 6, the Cavs are actually 13-36 ATS (including 5-16 ATS this season) when off of a loss by a double digit margin. No bounce back here and, in fact, I expect the Pacers to ride the momentum of the Game 6 win to an upset victory in Game 7. Certainly I am grabbing the generous points though just in case. Indiana's 3 losses in this series have all come by 4 points or less. Also, the Pacers are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games and Cleveland is 0-5 ATS last 5 home games. Combined 9-0 ATS run favoring the road dog here. 8* INDIANA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Saturday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - Stephen Curry is likely coming back for the Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. That has caused this line to jump up to a 9 as of early game day morning. The fact is that he is unlikely to be 100% right out of the gate and his shooting is also unlikely to be as sharp as usually. Keep in mind, Curry has hardly seen any game action since very early March. Golden State is hosting a red hot Pelicans team that also has added confidence from winning on this very floor in early April. That victory is part of the red hot 9-0 SU/ATS run that the Pelicans are bringing into this game. It is no fluke either as New Orleans is 9-3 SU/ATS their last 12 road games! When a team is that hot and winning like that away from home, they are a force to be reckoned with and I like the added line value here of this one now approaching double digits! The Pelicans are 13-7 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Warriors are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 home games and that long-term stretch dates all the way back to the All Star break. The Pelicans are shooting 52.8% from the field in their last 7 games. Golden State has been held under 44.7% from the field in 2 straight and 3 of their last 6 games. The Pelicans are geared up for the upset here and if they do fall short I expect the generous points offered here to prove to be more than enough. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Saturday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The home team has won every game in this series so naturally the popular choice here will be the Celtics. Everyone knows that I stay away from the popular choice as much as possible but it is never without good reason. In this case I absolutely feel that the Bucks are the better team. I know it has been a tight series, including an OT win for the Celtics early on, but I still feel Milwaukee is the better team and will take this game even though they're on the road. The Bucks have only shot poorly in one game in this series. In the other 5 games they've shot at least 48.2% from the field in all five games. Conversely, the Celtics have only shot well in one game this season. They've shot poorly in the other 5 games as they've been held to 42% or less from the field in all but one game in this series. Truly it is borderline amazing that the Celtics are even still alive in this playoffs given those numbers and I expect that good fortune Boston has had in this series to run out today. Look for the Bucks to improve to 5-2 SU/ATS this season when off of a game where they held their opponent to 90 points or less as the Celtics drop to 5-8 SU their last 13 games as their season ends. Though I do expect the Bucks to win outright I am grabbing the points here just in case they fall short in a heart-breaker. 8* MILWAUKEE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - With all the games in this series staying under the closing number, the downward trend on the posted totals in these games has continued. With tonight's game also being a possible elimination game for the Pacers, we are being given additional line value with the low posted total on this one. I expect Indiana to come out with a ton of energy and to also sustain it. The Pacers have lost 3 of the last 4 games in this series so clearly the grinder style of games is not suiting them. They need to take advantage of getting quick points in transition and push the tempo a little bit and try to change things up here in Game 6. Indiana has shot better on the road than at home in this series and, of course, that is the inverse of what you would expect. Don't look for that trend to continue here. Look for a shootout tonight with plenty of threes as well as quick points in transition. The Cavaliers wrapped up the regular season with an O/U mark of 6-3 in road games and Game 4 of this series in Indiana did go over the total for all but later bettors (closed at 206). As for the Pacers, they averaged 106.4 points per game at home this season and I have a strong feeling about what is coming tonight in terms of tempo and that should lead to an easy over in this one. 10* OVER the total in Indiana

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Friday 8* Toronto Raptors (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Raptors turned up the heat on defense in their crucial Game 5 win. Look for that to be the turning point in the series as they are now up 3-2 in the series and would certainly like to close it out Friday and avoid the pressure of a Game 7. Toronto is as high as a 2.5 point dog as of very early game day morning and the Raptors are 25-9 SU this season when coming off of a win by a double digit margin. On the season Toronto is also 31-11 SU against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Washington is 19-34 ATS as a favorite this season and also 6-11 ATS in Friday games. The Raptors are 15-4 SU in Friday games! Look for the Toronto defense to again be the difference maker in Friday's game as they close this series out and drop the Wizards to 7-12 ATS in their last 19 playoff games. The Raptors held the Wizards to 37 of 90 from the field in Game 5. More of the same here. 8* TORONTO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - This line was as high as a -5.5 and is now down to a 4.5 (with reduced juice too) as of early game day morning. I like the value we're seeing here with the Bucks on their home floor considering they had 89 shots from the field (compared to just 69 for the Celtics) in the 5-point loss at Boston on Tuesday. Prior to that game Milwaukee was hitting over 52% in this series so the likelihood of a bounce back (particularly since they are back home) is quite high. The Bucks are 33-17 SU as a favorite this season and I like them to cover the small number in the process of another SU win here. At home, Milwaukee will be the better shooting team tonight and the Celtics may struggle a bit as they feel the pressure of trying to close it out and avoid a winner takes all Game 7. Keep in mind there is some history with this as Boston is only 3-5 SU when leading in a playoff series in recent seasons. They've haven't played well in this situation but they truly have been getting a number of fortunate covers. This is why the Celtics have such a strong ATS record and are becoming a public favorite...they've been getting the cash. But tonight the public will be burned on this one because the Bucks roll at home. Remember 87 to 69 field goal attempts in Game 5 on the road at Boston. You know what is coming tonight from the hungry Bucks. 10* MILWAUKEE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 9:35 ET - The very first number that popped up on this total was a 219. The markets have pounced on it and have pounded it down to as low as a 215.5 as of early game day morning. I'll gladly grab the additional line value here. The Wolves are down 3-1 in this series so they have no option but to pull off a huge upset here if they want to stay alive in this post-season. That said, there is great value with the over here because the Rockets are going to push the pace and look to close out big at home. The first two games in this series were played in Houston and both stayed under the total. However, the Rockets shot uncharacteristically poor from 3-point land in those two games. They've gotten hotter since then as they've shot better from beyond the arc in the last two games, both played in Minnesota. That said, I look for them to be even hotter still in Game 5 as they're back on their home floor and have found their shooting stroke again. The Timberwolves have hit 40% of their threes in this series and I look for this one to turn into a run and gun affair. We're simply getting value here because the first two games in Houston stayed under the total. Given this elimination setting and the Rockets game plan to run the Wolves out of the playoffs by running them right of the arena, this will be a shootout tonight. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 when the Rockets are leading in a playoff series. Minnesota is 9-4 to the over when they are off of a loss by double digits. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #710 Wednesday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards rallied and got the win in Game 4 in DC on Sunday but the Raptors should roar back here. Toronto lost their shooting touch in Washington but are now back home where they've shot 50% or better in 3 straight games. The Raptors are 7-1 SU in their last 8 home games and are perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 played north of the border. The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games and Washington has lost 8 straight games SU away from home. The Raptors let a big lead get away from them in Game 4 and even were in good shape late in the game before a surprising collapse. They'll be ready to roll here on Wednesday. The Wizards are 4-11 SU and ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. Toronto is 7-2 SU when tied in a playoff series and also 13-3 SU when off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Raptors get the win here and, as far as the cover, the SU winner has also been the ATS winner in each of their last 11 games! 8* TORONTO

Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - The Game 4 win for the Sixers was the 3rd time in 4 games in this series that one of the teams attempted at least 94 shots from the field. However, the game did stay under but the point is that we're getting line value here with this total as a result. The way the pacing has gone in this series 3 of the 4 should have gone over but instead it is a 2-2 split. With Miami having their backs against the wall, down 3-1 in this series, I look for them to be especially aggressive on the offensive end in this one. They know the Sixers are going to "get theirs" in terms of points but the Heat have scored at least 102 in each game in this series and have, in fact, averaged 106.5 points per game. Considering the spread on this game is double digits and yet Miami should end up in the 102 to 107 range in points, this total is definitely a little low as you can see! In terms of technical support, the over is 10-4 in Miami's last 14 road games and 10-5 in 76ers games this season when they are playing with 2 days of rest between games. Fresh legs and plenty of run and gun as the Sixers want to end this at home while the Heat will be firing away to try to stay alive and send it back to Miami. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The public is going to be enamored with grabbing Boston minus the short number at home considering that the home team has won all 4 games in this series. However, the issue with that is two-fold. One problem is that the luck of the Irish is likely to run out soon. Remember they had the miracle cover in Game 1 they didn't deserve as the game only went to OT because of a miracle long 3-point shot with a tenth of the second left on the clock. That was Game 1 of this series and the Bucks were catching at least +3.5 in that. Then, in Game 4, the Celtics charged back from way way down to sneak inside the number. Certainly they deserve some credit for that but, at the same time, lesson learned for Milwaukee as they let that huge lead slip away and the reality is that many were inclined to tear up Celtics tickets when they were down by 20 pretty far along in that one! Now the real key, in addition to the swing of the "lucky bounces pendulum" is the fact that the Celtics have been held to 41.5% or less from the field in 3 of the 4 games this series. Not only have the Bucks shot a ridiculous 54.2% in this series, the Celtics have never held them below 48.2% in any of the 3 games! From my viewpoint, Milwaukee is the better team in this series and should win the series. To do that they're going to have win once in Boston. This certainly looks like the best spot for that as they roll in off of those big back to back home wins and are loaded with momentum. In a situation like this, the points should prove to just be an added bonus. Grab the points  but look for the outright upset. 8* MILWAUKEE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets will be in bounce back mod here after getting destroyed in Game 3. Keep in mind, even though Houston won Game 1 it was far too close of a call and they responded in Game 2 and won by a margin of 20 points. The Rockets are 18-3 SU (15-6 ATS) versus Northwest Division opposition this season. Houston is also 17-6 SU when playing with revenge this season. That said, I also like my chances of a SU win equating to an ATS win as 11 of the Timberwolves last 13 losses have come by 8 or more points. Minnesota is also an ugly 18-34 ATS (including 9-16 ATS this season) when off of a game where they scored 115 or more points. Minnesota is also just 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they were off of a game where they shot 40% or better from three point land. The Wolves 15 of 27 shooting performance from beyond the arc certainly had a lot to do with their Game 3 win but they are not known as a 3 point shooting team and averaged only 8 per game so far this season. In other words, that 1-7 ATS stat makes perfect sense because Minny usually comes right back down to earth after a rare standout shooting performance like that. 10* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - With a drop down to a 203.5 this morning, this total is now down double digits from where it was earlier in this series. This is a classic case of the books having to over-react due to market perception forcing an over-correction. Yes all 3 games of this series have stayed under the total but let us not get carried away here! The Celtics scored 57 in the first half of Friday's game. The Pacers scored 52 points in the 2nd half of that Game 3 match-up. The Cavs also scored 58 in the first half of Game 2 while the Pacers scored 51 points in the 2nd half of that match-up. The key here is Cleveland is now desperate for a win as they are on the road and down 2 games to 1 and the Cavaliers best success in this series has come when they're pushing the pace. The Cavs have led by double digits at halftime in each of the past two games. Today I look for Cleveland to push hard for a full 48 minutes. While I do respect the Pacers defense this is still an Indiana team that allowed 104 points per game this season. Of course the Cavaliers struggles defensively were well-documented this season and they've allowed nearly 110 points per game on the season. There is simply exceptional value with the drop in this total because you know with the importance of this game, big difference between a 3-1 series and a 2-2, neither team is going to lie down late no matter the score. So a good tempo here with late fouling and big threes also a distinct possibility to add points. 10* OVER the total in Indiana

No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Sunday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 6:05 ET - The Raptors are such a small favorite I would recommend playing them on the money line if you access to it as that is still in the -120 to -125 range as of early game day morning. The Wizards, prior to winning Game 3, had lost 11 of 14 games! Also, Washington was on a 6-15-2 ATS run in their 23 games prior to Friday's win. The Raptors were 6-1 SU and ATS prior that defeat in Game 3 and I expect a huge effort from there here after allowing the Wizards to hit 55% from the field Friday! Toronto also should play a cleaner game as turnovers caused them trouble in the defeat. The Raptors didn't get the #1 seed in the East by accident and they're coming to play today. Toronto went 4-1 SU this season after a loss by double digits and also the Raptors went 16-4 SU after allowing 115 points or more in a game. Look for a road rout in this one as Washington has covered only 16 of their 42 home games this season! 8* TORONTO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Sunday 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 1:05 ET - Even though the Celtics lost by 24 in Game 3 there are some interesting stats that tell you why that was a bit of a fluke win. Certainly Milwaukee deserved to win that game but I am talking about the margin of the game. The Bucks outscored Boston by, coincidentally, 24 points as they made 16 three pointers compared to just 8 for the Celtics. It is highly unlikely that Milwaukee is going to again shoot nearly 50% from three point land again! Also, Boston lost the turnover battle in Game 3 but had won that battle in each of the first two games. The Celtics did dominate the glass Friday and they also did a better job of getting to the free throw line than the Bucks. The point is there are a lot of signs pointing to today's game being a tight one decided by a single possession. I expect the Celtics to respond and get the road win here but, if they do fall short, look for it to be by 3 or less. Boston is 19-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Also, the Celtics are 17-5 ATS when playing with revenge this season plus a stellar 8-1 SU and 6-1 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin. Milwaukee is only 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record and also went just 13-25-3 ATS in home games in the regular season. 8* BOSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #721 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets @ 7:35 ET - Ladies and gentlemen, this total opened up at a 213 and is now as high as a 214.5 despite the fact that both games in this series have easily stayed under the total AND the Rockets are on an 11-2 run to the under. So what does that tell you? Some sharp money is on the over here folks. This is a contrarian play. Most will be enticed to the under but the over is the way to go. Yes, the Timberwolves are on a 5-1 run to the under also but, after struggling with their shot at Houston, look for them to shoot much better at home in Minnesota. Also, the Rockets are making just 29% of their three pointers so far in this series but that is not going to continue. Houston is too strong of a shooting team and they will hit their stride again. The Rockets actually hit 38 of 82 (46.3%) of their three pointers in their two games at Minnesota in the regular season and they'll get it rolling again tonight. The Wolves have averaged 114 points per game in their last 4 home games versus the Rockets and the over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings there. The Timberwolves are 8-4 to the over this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #719 Saturday 8* Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 5:05 ET - Now the Blazers are left for dead because they're down 3-0 in this series. However, with a big upset win on the road they can send this series back to Portland knowing that 2 of the last 3 games would be home if they can keep winning. To come all the way back is certainly improbable but not impossible and it is a game by game approach right now for the Blazers. What I particularly like about his play is the over-reaction of the markets. Thursday's Game 3 match-up opened up at a -3. Now, Saturday's Game 4 match-up is up as high as a 7.5 as of early game day morning. This is the true definition of value because there is no way Portland is laying down here and now we're getting 7.5 points instead of 3. Taking a closer look at the losses. The Blazers lost Game 3 because of 24 turnovers. They lost Game 2 because the Pelicans made 12 of 24 three pointers. They lost Game 1 because they couldn't throw it in the ocean as the saying goes as they took 98 shots but only made 38%. They lost that game by 2 and if they lose Game 4 I also expect it to be by just a single possession. The Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. 8* PORTLAND

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - There really is no reason to expect the high-scoring ways of this series to come to a stop just yet. The Wizards average nearly 4 points more at home compared to on the road while the Raptors average under 2 points less on the road compared to at home. Also, the Toronto defense does allow about 4 points more when on the road this season while the Washington defense shows an average only about 2 points better when at home compared to on the road. The Wizards simply are not known as a team that wins with defense. In fact, in their last 15 home wins they've allowed an average of 105.4 points per game. Again, they win with offense and this is a desperate Washington team in search of a win to get back into this series but they simply can not stop the Raptors. Toronto has scored an average of 116.3 points per game in their last 4 games versus the Wizards. The Raptors have shot the ball very well overall in their last 5 games and have averaged 114.6 points per game during this stretch. The Wizards are 6-2 to the over in their last 8 games. Toronto is a long-term 23-16 when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Raptors also are 9-5 to the over this season when they are an underdog. Washington is 27-16 to the over when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, only 4 of 12 games have stayed under when the Wizards are off of a loss by a double digit margin. In other words, the Wizards respond to ugly defeats with offense not defense and that is what I expect to see again on Friday. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #712 Friday 8* Indiana Pacers (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers are at home at a pick'em price after opening up as a 2 point choice and I really like the value we're getting with Indiana just to win on their home floor. Keep in mind, they lost Game 2 by only 3 points and the Cavaliers made 5 more three pointers than the Pacers. Clearly the 3-point shooting was a big difference maker in the game and I expect Indiana to shoot much better on their home floor here in Game 3. As for the Cavaliers, they were held below 40% from the field in their two games prior to the strong effort on Tuesday. The Cavs have covered just 3 of their last 10 first round playoff games. The Pacers are the better team defensively and they are 27-10 SU this season against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Of course the Cavaliers fall into that category as Cleveland has allowed 109.6 points per game this season. Since the calendar turned the page to 2018, the Pacers have won 16 of 21 home games. They get the job done again tonight. 8* INDIANA