Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #512 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The betting markets tend to put a lot of weight into historical data. That is why this line is only a -5 on Philadelphia as of early game day morning. That said, the line is far too low and I will step in and take advantage. The fact is that the 76ers have a history of recent struggles against the Celtics and that is why Boston is getting plenty of attention in this match-up. However, the fact is that the Celtics are trending the wrong direction away from NBA Championship contender while the 76ers (along with the Bucks) are now considered a frontrunner to come out of the Eastern Conference and battle for the NBA Title in June. In other words, we've got the stronger team and we've got the team that wants to exterminate a long-time nemesis and we've got them on their home floor and they're laying just 5 points. I'll take this kind of situation all day every day. In terms of additional support for this one, Boston is just 9-15 SU as a road dog of 6 points or less while Philly is 65-19 SU as a home favorite including 29-10 SU as a home favorite of 6 or less points. In other words, it is very likely that Philly gets the SU win here and having the Sixers in the -5 range is a great value. The 76ers are on an 8-3 ATS run and continue to be undervalued by the markets while the Celtics are on a 1-4 ATS run entering the new season and are overvalued here due to past successes against the Sixers. Philly is in the process of turning the tables on Boston and "the process" continues here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Tuesday 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Pelicans are without Zion Williamson due to his injury but lets not forget that the Raptors no longer have Kawhi Leonard. That said, I feel we have great line value here with this line as it first opened up around a 5 and is now up to a 7 as of early game day morning. New Orleans has gone 51-36 ATS in road games the past two seasons. Also, within that stat for the Pelicans is a tightener as well. New Orleans is 13-7 / 65% ATS when they are a road dog in a range of +6.5 to +12 points. As you can see with the huge total posted on this game, a lot of points are expected in this one. That is another key that trends very much AGAINST Toronto here. The Raptors, in a home game where the total is posted at 220 or more, have gone 16-28-3 ATS long-term. Look for the Pelicans to take this one to the wire north of the border Tuesday. Having Jrue Holiday back at the point is a key for the Pelicans as he missed the final 5 weeks of last season and is a tremendous player and a floor leader. Also, I like the addition of JJ Redick for a strong outside shooting threat as well. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - Monday's game died in the 4th quarter in terms of the scoring. I don't expect a repeat of that here. It is yet another elimination game for the Warriors but this time they are at home. Golden State will be ready to make up for the Game 4 debacle on their home floor when they scored just 92 points! Prior to that game the Warriors had scored an average of 118.6 points per game in their 14 home games since the last time they were held under 100 points on their home floor. In other words, the Game 4 result was highly unusual and I am expecting a break out game from Golden State on the offensive end in this one. However, the Raptors have plenty of confidence too. Despite the Game 5 loss, Toronto still has the Warriors on the ropes here and the Raptors have averaged 112.8 points per game in their last 5 games at Golden State. Don't be surprised if this one turns into a see-saw battle with plenty of points! The over is 10-4-1 when Toronto is playing with home loss revenge this season. There have been back to back unders in this series but lets not forget that, prior to those two games, the over was 8-3-1 in the Warriors last 12 NBA Finals games. Look for that high-scoring long-term trend to resume Thursday as the Warriors get their outside shooting going in a big way on their home floor in this crucial Game 6 match-up. 10* OVER the total in Golden State

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Monday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors could have Kevin Durant back on the floor tonight. All signs are pointing that way and I liked Golden State in this match-up for Game 5 even if he didn't play so truly this has just increased the value for me. That's because the line, as of early Monday morning, has only budged by about a point, even though Durant could be a key catalyst for a big comeback effort from Golden State. While it is true that the Warriors are down 3-1 in this series, it is also true that it only takes one GS win for them to be very much alive in this series. Game 6 would be at home for Golden State and, with Durant possibly back on the floor for that one too, the Warriors would be a sizable favorite for then forcing an "anything can happen" Game 7 north of the border. Like I said, you can see why all hope is certainly not lost for GS and that is especially true when you consider that these guys are repeat champions looking for another ring! In other words, they've "been there, done that" and will be very hard for the Raptors to close out. Note that the Warriors are a long-term 13-6 (SU and ATS) when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto is a long-term 7-12 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors, especially if Durant is back for GS, will be feeling the pressure to close this series out at home and avoid another trip to the West Coast. Truly this has the makings of an amazing series finish as I expect the Warriors to come up with their strongest effort of the series tonight and force a Game 6 out west. 10* GOLDEN STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #528 Friday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors are in full on bounce back mode here after an embarrassing home loss in Game 3. Golden State was still without Kevin Durant of course but they also were without Klay Thompson for that game and that proved to be too much for them to overcome even though Stephen Curry scored 47 points. In Game 4 Friday, look for the Warriors to have a true "energy game" here as they are highly motivated and also will be energized by the return of Klay Thompson here. GS can not afford to fall into a 3-1 hole. Yes, a "must win" does not always equate to a "must win" but in this case, with the defending champs at home and in a great spot for a huge effort, I am happy to lay the short number in this one. Golden State is 13-5 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto is 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS when leading in a playoff series. When the Warriors enter a game off 3 or more consecutive overs, Golden State has gone 8-2 SU and ATS this season. Look for the Warriors to really clamp down on defense here after allowing 123 points in Game 3. When playing with home loss revenge, GS has gone 9-3 SU this season and they've covered 8 of those 12 games! Keep in mind, the Raptors entered this series having gone just 1-2 SU and ATS in road games in their series victories over the 76ers and Bucks. In other words, it is easy to see why the odds favor a letdown here for Toronto after they already got their big road win and cover in Game 3 on Wednesday. Payback time for the small home favorite. 10* GOLDEN STATE

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors @ 9:05 ET - The Raptors are looking to bounce back after taking a dozen more shots from the field than the Warriors took and yet still losing Game 2 in Toronto. Note that the over is 24-13 (including 9-4 this season) when the Raptors are playing with home loss revenge. Golden State's Klay Thompson played solid defense in Game 2 and that was considered a key catalyst in the win. It is likely he will play in Game 3 even though he is dealing with a hamstring issue but don't be surprised if that injury makes Thompson a little less effective on the defensive end. Speaking of holes defensively, the Warriors continue to be without Kevin Durant and he has already been announced as out for this game. So I am expecting a much better shooting performance from the Raptors in this one and, at the same time, I expect Steph Curry and company to have a huge shooting night on their home floor. Golden State will rally around the fact that this is their first home game since mid-May! In this post-season Warriors games are 11-6-1 to the over. In NBA Finals games Golden State is on a 7-3-1 run to the over. The Warriors have scored 109 points or more in 7 straight games. The Raptors had averaged 112 points per game in their 5-game winning streak that preceded the tough loss on Sunday. Look for this one to get into the 220 to 225 range. 10* OVER the total in Golden State 

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #523 Sunday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors are 12-5 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Golden State is 8-2 SU their last 10 games in NBA Finals and that is even after losing Game 1 of this series. Look for the Warriors, even though still without Durant, to respond big in Game 2. The earliest numbers that popped up offshore for this one had the Warriors as a slight favorite but now they are an underdog catching as many as 2.5 points as of early game day morning. Golden State is 21-7 SU when playing with revenge this season. Also, this will be the Warriors 4th straight road game but, interestingly, GS is 32-7 SU the last 39 times they have entered a game off of playing 3 or more consecutive road games. Toronto, in franchise history, is an ugly 6-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Raptors have covered 5 straight games but, prior to this, the longest ATS winning streak for Toronto this season was 4 straight games. You can see that the odds are certainly in favor of this streak coming to an end. It has been a great run for the Raptors but I also like the fact that Siakam shot a ridiculous 14 of 17 in Game 1. You know that numbers like that are not going to happen again here. Also, Green and Iguodala combined for 5 of 16 shooting including 0 of 6 from three point land for the Warriors. When you flip these numbers around to the normal range you will see that Golden State should respond and be on top in Game 2. That huge game for Siakam was the 4th time in May that he scored 20 or more points while also shooting at least 45% from the field. What happened after the 1st three? Siakam averaged just NINE points and shot just 33% from the field. Adjustments are made game to game and the Warriors have had plenty of time to make some key changes for their Game 2 planning. Much different result today. 10* GOLDEN STATE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - This total opened up at a 215.5 and has dropped to as low as a 213 as of early game day morning. Certainly line value is on our side here. The Warriors are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 road games. When playing with 3 or more days of rest this season Golden State is 3-1 to the over. The over is 6-3 in the Warriors NBA Finals games the past two seasons. When on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive SU wins, Golden State is 18-11 to the over this season. Toronto is 19-11 to the over this season when on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive SU wins. The Raptors, when hosting the Warriors, are a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last 4 meetings. The Warriors have allowed 110 points or more in 5 of their last 6 road games. The Raptors, before being held to 100 points in their series-clinching Game 6 win versus Milwaukee last week, had averaged 114 points per game in their 4 prior home games. Yes there was some OT impact in those numbers but you can see from the type of numbers I am giving you here we certainly have some "wiggle room" with this low total. Keep in mind that a total as low as 213 means we just need to get each team to 106 points and we can't lose our play. With fresh legs for both teams and the Raptors playing fast in front of an electric home crowd and looking to take advantage of a Warriors team still without Kevin Durant, I look for plenty of points in this one as you know Golden State is going to "get theirs" too in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 - This line opened up at a pick'em and has risen to a -2.5 on the Raptors. Consider that Milwaukee also entered Game 4 off a loss in Game 3 of this series. The line for Game 4 was the Bucks -3. So now we have seen this line completely swing in the opposite direction. The last time these teams played in Toronto the Bucks were favored by 3 and now they are the underdog by 3 points. Of course that is not where the odds makers set the line, that is what the markets are forcing. Long-time followers know whom I like to side with in the majority of cases like this and this one is no exception. I'll side with the odds makers and fade the markets here. We are simply getting exceptional line value here. Milwaukee has lost 3 straight games for the first time this entire season. The Bucks also have failed to cover the spread now in 3 straight games which is also rare for them this season. The last two times that has happened they got blowout wins by a double digit margin in their next game both times. I am not saying we're going to necessarily see a road rout here but I am expecting an outright win and am happy to have the points on my side as added insurance. Milwaukee shot 45% from the field in Game 5 and held Toronto to 37%. So what happened in that game that led to the loss? The Bucks allowed too many uncontested threes. The Raptors had 18 threes compared to just 10 for Milwaukee. That is a difference of 24 points. At the free throw line Toronto outscored the Bucks by 12 points. When you consider those stats combine for a 36 point advantage and yet the Raptors only won the game by 6 points you can see why I am not so impressed by Toronto like the betting masses are. Give me the points here which is where the sharp money is very likely to go in this game! The Raptors don't have a good history in this situation as they are 5-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Bucks are 16-4 ATS (19-1 SU) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. 10* MILWAUKEE

Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #508 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 ET - It is truly entertaining to see how quickly market perception can swing on teams. Everybody is talking about the Raptors because they won big in Game 4. Lets not forget they barely won Game 3 on their home floor and it took double OT to do it. Lets not forget that Kawhi Leonard scored just 19 points in Game 4. That said, if you think his teammates are going to contribute on the road in Game 5 in the same way they did in Game 4 on Thursday, then you haven't been watching the Raptors for much of this post-season. This Toronto team relies heavily on Leonard and the fact he seemed to be favoring his leg at the end of the Game 3 marathon in which he played 52 minutes and then was held under 20 points in Game 4 should be a warning to Raptors supporters. I don't foresee Kyle Lowry having another huge game here. Keep in mind he had averaged just 13 points in the two prior games before scoring 25 on Tuesday. Also, he had averaged only about 12 points in the first two rounds of the post-season. Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka combined to shoot 12 of 18 off the bench at Toronto in Game 4. Again, very unlikely to see this again in Game 5 on the road. Milwaukee is going to be very aggressive Thursday and will have the support of the home crowd all the way through. Keep in mind the Bucks were very close to going up 3-0 in this series and yet now that it is 2-2 and the Raptors support players played so well in Game 4, everyone is talking about Toronto. You know what usually happens when the masses start to line up on one side don't you? The Bucks are the play here and should dominate this one. Milwaukee is 4-0 their last 4 home games and won those by an average margin of 19 points per game. The Bucks also went 2-0 at home in the first round of the post-season and the average margin was 28 points per victory. Milwaukee is off back to back losses for only the 2nd time this season. The one time it happened during the regular season they won their next two games, both at home, by an average margin of 18 points per game as both were blowout wins. Of course, one game at a time here for the Bucks but they haven't lost 3 straight games this entire season and certainly I expect this win to come by 7 or more points. Good line value with this line dropping to 6.5 in many of the big sports books as of early game day morning. The Raptors are 4-11 ATS when they enter a game off 3 or more consecutive overs. The Bucks are 16-3 ATS (19-0 SU) off an upset loss as a favorite and also 6-0 SU and ATS this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. Payback time. 10* MILWAUKEE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The markets often believe there is a certain magic to the numbers that, in reality, just isn't really there. After those holding under tickets in Game 3 absolutely did suffer a very bad beat because the game went to double OT that does not automatically mean that now the under comes in with this Game 4 match-up. That said, I am happy to grab the extra value being offered here. The books tried to hang a 220 on this game (and they were smart and logical in doing so) but the markets quickly bet it down. Now, as of early game day morning, the total is all the way down to a 216. Keep in mind, as ugly as the Sunday game was in the 2nd half and in the overtime periods, the game was on pace to go over as of halftime. What happened was unreal horrific shooting performances from a number of players and that led to ridiculously low-scoring in the 2nd half of Game 3. Do you really think those numbers are going to be repeated? There is no basis for that. Check these out: Bucks STARTERS Mirotic, Middleton, Bledsoe and Antetokounmpo combined for 14 of 59 - that is 23.7% shooting from the field! How about some Raptors numbers? Toronto's Green, Ibaka and VanVleet combined for 4 for 29 - that is 13.8% shooting from the field! Keep in mind, in the case of the Raptors, that is on their home floor no less! I expect some much better shooting performances in Game 4 and I expect that this game is going to have a much different flow than many are anticipating. The over is 7-1 in Milwaukee's last 8 road games. The over is 6-2 in the Raptors last 8 games against a Central Division opponent and the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. 10* OVER the total in Toronto 

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - With Damian Lillard reportedly dealing with a significant rib injury and the Trail Blazers down 3-0 in this series the handwriting appears to be on the wall for Portland. However, even with Lillard struggling the Blazers were up huge in Game 3 before the Warriors roared back for the win. Of course in Game 2 (admittedly when Lillard was healthier) Portland also had a great shot at the win but it slipped away late in the 3-point loss. The fact is that, ever since Game 1 when the Trail Blazers appeared fatigued from their series with the Nuggets that went the full seven games, Portland has been ultra competitive with Golden State. I just don't see them getting swept out of the playoffs by losing this one on their home floor. The Blazers have showed me enough (even with Lillard hurting) that I fully expect them to win this game tonight. I will grab the points being offered (as many as 4 available in some spots) but will look for the outright win. Note that Golden State has failed to cover 24 of 38 times this season when they are off a win that came by a victory margin of 10 or more points. The Trail Blazers, prior to Saturday's loss, had been a PERFECT 3-0 ATS in this post-season when trailing in a playoff series. They let that Game 3 slip away just like they let Game 2 slip away on the road. Look for the Blazers to prove to be the hungrier and more determined team tonight. It is often when a team is left for dead by the masses that they rise up and play their best game (especially when at home) and that is what I fully expect here. 10* PORTLAND

Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks most recent road game stayed under the total but that ended a perfect 6-0 streak of overs in Milwaukee road games. The fact is that the Bucks are truly proving very difficult to stop as they have scored 28 points or more in 6 of the last 7 quarters in this series. In addition to Milwaukee piling up the points, I also like the fact that the Raptors are now back home and they did score 64 points in the 2nd half of Game 2 which gives them some momentum and confidence on the offensive end despite being in an 0-2 hole in the series. Also, Toronto jumped on the Bucks in Game 1 of this series with a 59 point first half. They just couldn't sustain it. But, at home, the Raptors are likely to sustain a strong performance on offense and, at the same time, I just don't see them stopping Milwaukee considering how potent their production on offense has been. The Bucks are not only 6-1 to the over in their last 7 games away from home, they are also 8-4 to the over this season in games in which they are an underdog. Toronto is 19-11 to the over when playing with revenge this season. The Raptors are averaging 114 points in home games this season while Milwaukee averages 117 points per game in road games this season. Yes this is playoff basketball but we've seen huge scoring stretches from both teams already in this series and I like the fact the Raptors are on their home floor and need to respond with a huge performance on the offensive end but also won't be able to stop the Bucks. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Saturday 8* UNDER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Game 2 did go over the total but the Trail Blazers knocked down nearly 50% of their threes and it still barely eclipsed the number. We have another big total to work with here in Game 3 and, keep in mind, Game 1 stayed under the total even though the Warriors knocked down over 50% of their threes. The point is, barring a ridiculous shooting performance from both teams here, we should see this one stay under the total. Of course Golden State remains without Kevin Durant and, with the host in an 0-2 series deficit, Portland is very likely to do their best to turn up the heat defensively in this one. The Blazers know they were done in by lapses on defense that led to some big scoring runs for the Warriors and, at home, they'll be extra cognizant of tightening those things up. 8 of 13 Trail Blazers conference finals games have resulted in an under. The Warriors have stayed under in 14 of 20 games against Northwest Division opponents this season. Also, 16 of 25 Golden State conference finals games have stayed under the total. The Trail Blazers have averaged just 84.5 field goal attempts per game so far in this series and the Warriors have averaged only 83 field goal attempts per game. Those types of numbers are more conducive, in terms of pace, to games landing closer to 210 than to 220 and the fact is there is great value with the big total posted on this game. 8* UNDER the total in Portland

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Saturday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The home team has won 3 straight in match-ups between these teams. The Trail Blazers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings in Portland. Many will be happy to grab the Warriors plus the points in the rare role of an underdog for them but, in typical contrarian fashion I am going against Golden State here. The Blazers actually had a 15 point lead at halftime of Game 2. Portland trailed by only 6 points heading to the 4th quarter in Game 1. The point is that the Trail Blazers saw each game slip away from them in the 4th quarter as, even after a horrific 3rd quarter in Game 2, they were still tied going to the 4th and had a late lead before falling just short. These things are understandable on the road. But, at home, I don't expect Portland to collapse late as they have done in each of the first two games. The fact that the Warriors are finding out that Kevin Durant's injury is a little worse than originally thought is also unlikely to help the psyche of Golden State heading into this one. As for the Trail Blazers, they will have a high motor in this game as they are back home and ready to get right back into this series after letting each of the first two games slip away late. The Game 2 loss was particularly disheartening for the Blazers but heading back home after that 3-point defeat will have Portland firing on all cylinders in this one. The Trail Blazers are 23-3 SU in their last 26 home games. The Warriors are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 road games. 10* PORTLAND

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:35 ET - Inexplicably, the Raptors fell apart in the 4th quarter Wednesday. Inexplicably, Toronto has shot 38.2% or less from the field in back to back games. Of course the result has been back to back unders but Game 1 of this series totaled 208 points even though neither team shot above 39.8% from the field and that tells you quite a lot! The fact is that with even just a slight uptick in shooting percentages (and certainly an improvement is likely given the long-term history of these teams) we should easily get past this total. The Game 2 total is now lower than the Game 1 total even though one could easily argue that it should be higher given how bad the shooting was Wednesday and yet the game still totaled 208. I see this one flying over the total. The Bucks will be going for the kill as they can sense blood in the water and a chance to go up 2-0. The Raptors hungry to atone for their horrific 4th quarter in Game 1 and Toronto will be very aggressive in transition and in the offensive end as they bounce back from B2B poor efforts offensively. There have only been 4 other times this season that the Raptors have been held to 41.6% or less from the field in back to back games. ALL FOUR times their next game has gone OVER the total. Also, Toronto is 11-4 to the over in Friday games this season. Milwaukee has now recorded 3 straight unders. Dating all the way back the Christmas, when the Bucks enter a game off 3 or more consecutive unders, the over has gone 5-1 and I expect these situational trends to continue to be spot on! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Blazers shot 36% in Game 1 while the Warriors shot 50%. Portland turned the ball over 21 times compared to Golden State giving it up just 14 times. Even with that, the Trail Blazers were down by just a single digit margin with under 5 minutes to go before the wheels completely came off in the eventual loss by 22 points. The fact is we're getting great line value to again be offered the same line in Game 2 with Kevin Durant again out for Golden State and with the Blazers very likely to play much better in this one. This season, when Portland is on the road and coming off a game in which they were held to less than 100 points, the Trail Blazers are a perfect 4-0 ATS! This season, the Warriors are 3-6 ATS when they are off a game where they allowed less than 98 points. The fact is that game one was an unusual result and you can see what recent history suggests happens after a game like that and I see Portland coming up huge in game two. Damian Lillard's hamstring issue is minor and the Blazers have not failed to cover back to back meetings with the Warriors since their playoffs series two years ago! In meetings between these teams since April 24, 2017 the Trail Blazers were 5-2 ATS before failing to cover Game 1 of this series. Look for the bounce back here and at least the cover as an outright upset would not surprise me here! Look for the Warriors to drop to 3-6 ATS in this post-season when leading in a playoff series and keep in mind Golden State is only 4-4 SU in these playoffs when they hold the lead in a series. 10* PORTLAND

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 ET - The Raptors Game 7 against the 76ers was a very ugly game as it seemed all the Toronto players (other than Kawhi Leonard) were tentative as they avoided being aggressive in terms of shooting the ball or driving to the hoop. Everyone just looked to get the ball to Leonard. The strategy eventually paid off (barely) and the Raptors won the game on the already infamous last season quadruple bounce shot from Kawhi. The fact is that ugly result is helping lead to some line value here as this total has dropped to as low as a 216.5 early this morning. This one is likely to play out much differently as the Raptors will be more aggressive all over the floor on offense but I don't foresee them stopping these Bucks either. Milwaukee, of course, is entering this game with plenty of rest and their fresh legs will be happy to push the pace as they look to run Toronto up and down the court all night long. The Bucks know the rest factor is strongly in their advantage. Milwaukee had that one ugly game against Boston in Game 1 but that is the only time in their last 16 games that the Bucks have been held to less than 113 points! Talk about consistency on offense! Milwaukee has averaged 123 points per game in those 15 games! So if they were to hit their normal average over the past 7 weeks and the odds makers are right about the line on the side here, this final scored would be 123 to 117 and total 240 points. Now I am not saying it will hit that high but I am saying that based on the way the Bucks have been playing and the likely style they will play tonight, we have a lot of value with the rather low total posted on this game! Milwaukee's final two games with the Celtics in the second round stayed under the total but truly Boston was horrific on offense. Note that, prior to that, the over was 11-3 in the Bucks last 14 games. The Raptors are playing this game with home loss revenge and that is a situation that has seen them go 26-12 to the over including 10-3 to the over this season! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Playoff Hot Side - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Tuesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Without Kevin Durant, the Warriors are impacted more than just on the offensive end. Golden State allowed 47% to the Rockets in Game 6 without Durant on the floor. Note that the Blazers come into this match-up having allowed only 41.5% from the field in their last 6 games against the Nuggets. 3 of those 6 games were played on Denver's homes floor where they are so tough. The fact is that there are still many doubters about Portland but this team is for real. The Trail Blazers saw CJ McCollum take over in Game 6 at Denver when Damon Lilliard was having a rare sub-par game. That gives Portland a strong enough backcourt to compete with the Warriors. The fact that Rodney Hood is doubtful for this game does hurt the Blazers depth in their frontcourt (already without Jusuf Nurkic of course) but keep in mind the Warriors are not only without KD but also DeMarcus Cousins. Portland has won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and that includes the most recent meeting at Golden State. The Blazers are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games and I like having them plus big points as they will be going hard in Game 1 to steal a game at Golden State while Durant is out. The Warriors got the outright upset at Houston in Game 6 but were 4-9 ATS in their 13 prior games. Golden State is also 2-5 ATS when off an outright upset win as an underdog. Also, the Warriors are 11-24 ATS their last 35 Tuesday games. I find it hard to believe that the Warriors are justified in being a 7.5 point favorite here over the Blazers when this very same lineup was a 7.5 point dog at Houston! Even factoring in home court of 3 points each way that is still saying that the Rockets are 9 points better than the Blazers! I don't believe that for a second. Yes the Warriors have a rest edge here but Portland did have two days off before facing Denver on Sunday and they are riding a positive wave of emotion right now. I look for the Blazers to be in this one all the way. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7 ET - When the 76ers come to play and are aggressive, they have proven they can beat the Raptors and this is true even in Toronto as they won Game 2 here. After taking a 2-1 lead in the series, the Sixers dealt with an ailing Joel Embiid and some passive play and dropped two straight games. Facing elimination in Game 6 they didn't just "hang on for dear life" to even the series up at 3, Philadelphia absolutely dominated the Raptors. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Once again the Sixers are afforded two days of rest heading into this game and that is a huge edge for them considering Embiid, more than any other player for either team in this series, benefits from the extra rest. He had a +/- of +40 in Game 6 despite scoring only 17 points. The point is that shows you how much he contributes on both ends of the floor. He had a couple of big blocks of Kawhi Leonard that later had Leonard dishing the ball instead of driving to the hoop. The big fella is going to continue to dominate inside in Game 7 and we also saw a lot more attacking of the rim from Ben Simmons and, of course, Jimmy "Buckets" had a huge game as he continues to show leadership qualities that most were not expecting from Butler. This 76ers team has more star power than the Raptors and the Sixers are coming together as a team at the perfect time. They carry momentum right from Game 6 into Game 7 and note that in the last 5 games Philly has only been blown out once. The Sixers have won 3 of the 5 and only 1 loss came by more than 5 points. I fully expect the outright upset here but am grabbing the points. If the Sixers fall short it will likely be a heartbreaking loss by only a bucket or two. There is no way the 76ers are coming out soft or flat in this game. As a result, they are in this one all the way and have a great shot at the outright upset as the Raptors heavy reliance on Leonard burns them in the end. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 3:30 ET - These teams are evenly matched which is why this series has gone 7 games. Of course if the Trail Blazers had Jusuf Nurkic on the floor the series would have already been over with Portland prevailing. However, even without Nurkic the Blazers have won 3 of the last 5 games including a game at Denver and I am backing Portland here on the road. I expect the outright upset but I am happy to grab the generous points. The Trail Blazers are 21-10 SU (and 20-11 ATS) when off a win by a double digit margin. The Nuggets are 3-5 ATS the last 8 times they were off a game where they allowed 113 points or more. Also, Denver is known for a strong home court edge but is actually only 7-10 ATS in their last 17 home games and that is a long-term run that dates back to late February! The Nuggets have been held to 39.8% or less from the field in 3 of their last 7 games and two of those were on their home floor. Also, Denver has shot only 27.5% from three point land in their last 4 home games in this post-season. In the last 5 games between the Blazers and Nuggets only 1 of the 5 was a Denver win by more than 4 points. I look for that trend to continue here as the Trail Blazers are in this one all the way and either win the game outright or lose by 5 or less points. Great underdog value here. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #520 Friday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - There have been 8 meetings in calendar year 2019. Three in the regular season and now 5 in this playoff series. The result? ALL 8 were decided by 6 points or less. That said, this line being at 7 or 7.5 in favor of the Rockets must be a colossal mistake, right? In typical contrarian fashion I will lay the big points here. Kevin Durant is out for this game and I smell a blowout. Why? Because that means more reliance on other key big scorers like Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry to step up. Of course the key to the style that Thompson and Curry play is knock down threes and that simply has not been happening at a normally productive clip for much of this series. It seems Curry's finger might indeed be an issue in his shooting touch. The two teams have combined to make just 31% of their threes in the last two games in this series. The fact this game is at Houston also lessens the likelihood of a strong shooting night for the Warriors. At the same time, the Rockets could absolutely go on huge runs in this game because the absence of Durant is certainly impacting to Golden State on both ends of the floor. The Warriors have averaged just 32.8% from three point land in their last 4 games at Houston and only 105 points per game. Certainly those are not typical Golden State numbers. As for the Rockets, they've averaged 112 points per game the last 4 times they've hosted the Warriors and that number should grow here with the Warriors sans Durant! Also note that Golden State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Rockets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Lay it and look for a double digit home blowout here. 10* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Thursday NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - In the minds of most, this series is over. That is why a line that first opened up around a pick'em is now as high as -2.5 on Raptors. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the "left for dead" 76'ers here. They are on their home floor. They just lost back to back games and were held below 100 points in each contest. If you don't think the Sixers are going to give one helluva effort in this game than you don't know much about the emotion and pride of professional players especially when those players are on their home floor. So what happens when Philly, unlike Game 5, gives a strong effort? The Sixers held the Raptors below 100 points in both Games 2 and 3 of this series. The 76ers won that Game 3 right here in Philly by a margin of 21 points. Remember they were heavily doubted after losing Game 1 of the series versus Brooklyn. The Sixers responded by winning 4 straight games. They were again doubted after losing Game 1 of this series at Toronto. They responded by winning back to back games including their lone home win in this series coming in dominating fashion. Joel Embiid's health (upper respiratory infection) was at his worst in Game 5. He'll be a different player in Game 6. The 76'ers are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive non-covers. Philly is 9-1 ATS this season when off a game in which they failed to score 100 points. You read that right, they were a PERFECT 9-0 ATS off a game in which they were held under the century mark PRIOR to that loss in Toronto on Tuesday. I don't see lightning striking twice. The Sixers improve to 10-1 ATS in that situation with a resounding win tonight that will feature intensity, emotion, and a crazy atmosphere in Philly. Give me the home dog! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday NBA 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:35 ET - This line opened up at a 5.5 and has moved to as high as a 6.5 as of early morning on game day. I am grabbing the points here. While it is true that the home team has won all 4 games, it is also true that the Rockets have momentum on their side after winning each of the past two games. The Warriors had a chance to go in for the kill and certainly would have been in great position to now finish Houston off in this game if they had just taken one of the two in Texas. However, after losing both of those games Golden State now faces a Rockets team that has renewed confidence and hope in this series. That is the combination that makes for a dangerous dog and I especially like dogs in spots like this when they're offered at a line of a half dozen points or more. Note that Houston is 6-2 ATS this season when they enter a game on exactly a 2-game ATS winning streak. In terms of the Rockets entering a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games, they are 13-6 ATS the last 19 times they've been in that situation this season. The point is that when Houston gets on a roll for their backers it has paid to jump on board and I expect the Rockets to stay hot here. Keep in mind, these teams have now played 7 games in calendar year 2019 and ALL SEVEN have had a margin of victory of 6 points or less! The Warriors enter this game on a 4-8 ATS run and are simply not as dominant as they've been in past post-seasons. Look for another very close game that could go either way. I feel this one could be the upset many have been waiting for in this series but I am grabbing the valuable points as added insurance! 10* HOUSTON

East Beast - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Wednesday 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Now that the betting markets have soured on the Celtics the Bucks rose to as high as a 9.5 point favorite here after opening as low as an 8 point choice. I look for Boston to respond here and, though Milwaukee is the better team in this series, I don't see this game being decided by double digits. The Celtics are 10-3 SU and ATS (including 5-2 SU and ATS this season) when they enter a game off 3 or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are a long-term 67-114 ATS when entering a game off 3 or more consecutive wins and that includes a 19-27 ATS mark since the beginning of the 2016/17 season. This one might be about playing for pride for the Celtics but, as a result, that is precisely what I feel you will see here and there will be no quit in this team in Game 5. Grab the big points. 8* BOSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are still not getting any respect from the betting markets. Certainly give credit to the Raptors for winning Game 4 at Philly but also note that Joel Embiid was sick and had a tough time in that game. Even with that (and despite the fact Kawhi Leonard scored 39 points, the Sixers still almost won that game. Keep in mind the rest of the Raptors combined for only 62 points on ugly 22 of 56 shooting from the field (including just 5 of 24 from three point land). News flash everyone: Toronto is not as good as everyone thinks they are. They rely so heavily on Kawhi as you have seen! Note that Leonard is averaging 38 points per game in this series and yet it is still tied 2-2. You can bet (literally) that Philadelphia is going to do a much better job on Leonard in Game 5. Also note that the 76ers have outrebounded their opponent in 12 straight games! Not surprisingly the Sixers are 8-4 SU and ATS during this stretch but they continue to get no respect from the betting markets. I feel strongly that Philly has a great shot at winning this game outright. I am grabbing the generous points being offered but truly Embiid is due for a monster game and everyone seems to underestimate other Sixers players like Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, JJ Redick. These guys will all be in "attack mode" in Game 5 after losing on their home floor in Game 4. Note that Philly is 39-20 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. The Raptors are 3-9 ATS in their last dozen second round playoff games. Give me the hungry road dog playing with a chip on their shoulders in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - April 28 of last year is a day the Bucks haven't forgotten. It was the day their season ended as Boston finished them off in Game 7 of their first round playoff series. Even though today's game isn't an elimination game it is a chance, in a sense, for Milwaukee to return the favor so to speak. Now up 2-1 in this series, the Bucks can go in for the kill here because a 3-1 series lead with Game 5 in Milwaukee (and Game 7 if necessary) is likely too much for the Celtics to overcome. The Bucks will not let up here, not after they were beaten by double digits in that Game 7 loss here last spring. The home team took all 7 meetings in that series but that was then and this is now. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have seen the road team get the cash. Also, Milwaukee has now won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. They are the better team this season and their 27-14 regular season road mark was tied with the defending champion Warriors for the top road record in the league. The Game 1 loss in this series for the Bucks seemed to be the wake-up call they needed. They have responded since then and that is their only loss of the post-season. Also, their 6 wins have come by an average margin of 20.5 points per victory! There is nothing "average" about those numbers! Milwaukee has dominated. As for the Celtics, their 4 wins in their sweep of the Pacers came by an average margin of 7.5 points and truly Indiana was in every single one of those games with a chance to win every single game! Boston is 12-22 ATS after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Bucks are 19-6 ATS this season after allowing 115 points or more and also 13-6 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games while the Celtics are 6-9 ATS with the same rest factor. Once again, Boston will not be able to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo in this one and he keys another road win. 10* MILWAUKEE

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #593 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:05 ET - 9 straight games, including the quadruple OT game Friday, between the Nuggets and Blazers have been decided by single digits. That said, I certainly feel there is value with having the points in this match-up even though the points being offered are rather small. The fact is that having the points means that, in essence, you covered Friday's game 5 times as you covered at the end of regulation and at the end of each of the 3 OT periods before it finally went final after the 4th OT. The key point being that there is just not a lot that separates these two teams and that is also why the road team has now covered 5 of the last 7 meetings. I do feel that the Jusuf Nurkic injury will continue to catch up with the Trail Blazers the further they go into this post-season. Denver has now won the rebounding battle in back-to-back games and truly the Nuggets did themselves in with turnovers in Game 3. I fully expect a bounce back here as Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS the last 5 times they've had 13 or more turnovers in a game. The Nuggets also are 7-1 ATS in second round playoff games. Portland is 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've forced 14 or more turnovers in a game. The Blazers won the turnover battle by 7 in Game 3 and certainly that was a key factor in the 3 point win. Portland is 5-11 ATS in playoff games including 2-4 in their last 6. I fully expect the Nuggets to get the outright win here and even this series up but I am grabbing the points as added insurance. Having the points on our side is also what elevates this one to top play rating. 10* DENVER

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #592 Sunday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 3:35 ET - As per usual, compared to the regular season, the playoff schedule is much better for players to get rest. That is such a key edge for the 76ers because of big man Joel Embiid being afforded extra rest for his knees. After the Sixes got embarrassed in Game 1 they dominated Game 2 at Toronto. Then, after two days off, Philadelphia dominated Game 3 at home. Now, after two days off, what do you think happens again in Game 4 with Philly at home? Yes, the Sixers should dominate. Embiid is rested for the 76ers and also their bench depth is better as there are healthier than they've been in some time. Also, the Raptors Pascal Siakam is dealing win an injury. Though he his listed as doubtful I would not be surprised to see Siakam end up playing but his effectiveness will be impacted by his lower leg injury. The Sixers are extremely confident right now, playing great defense, and getting solid overall play from key contributors. Factoring in a healthier bench too and they have the depth and star power to outdo a Raptors team that relies far too much on star player Kawhi Leonard. Toronto will be hungry to bounce back here but they are quickly finding out that this is a very tough match-up for them. Also, the Raptors are 6-14 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in playoff games in this post-season and are 34-11 SU in home games this season. Considering the very low number on this game, the Sixers offer great line value at home as any SU win also is likely to equate to an ATS win. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #590 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - Down 0-2 in the series, and with extra time to think about it due to the 3 days off between games, the Rockets will have a fire lit under them for this game. Houston allowed 115 points in Tuesday's loss. Prior to that the Rockets had allowed an average of just 99 points per game in their 6 prior games. As for the Warriors, they had allowed an average of 113 points per game and gone 4-7 ATS in their 11 games prior to the win and cover in Game 2 of this series. Golden State is 5-9 ATS in Saturday games this season. Also, the Warriors are 7-11 SU the last 18 times they've been an underdog. That said, should a SU loss for Golden State equate to an ATS win for the Rockets? Yes. Each of the Warriors last 3 losses have come by 4 or more points and the average margin of defeat was 9 points. As for Houston, 9 of their last 10 wins have come by 7 or more points and 8 of those 9 victories came by a double digit margin! The Rockets had a non-covering win (but by 7 points!) in their most recent home game and that ended an ATS run of 8-0 in their last 8 home games! Look for another big home win here as the Rockets are 15-1 SU in their last 16 home games and the lone loss in that stretch was to the Warriors. In other words it is payback time and revenge time here as the Rockets get right back into the series Saturday. 10* HOUSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #585 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The general betting strategy employed by most will lead them to back the Celtics here since they are back at home and off an ugly Game 2 loss. As long-time followers know, I am generally contrarian to public perception. That said, it comes as no surprise that I love the Bucks in this spot. Milwaukee made adjustments after Game 1 and simply took over and imposed their will in Game 2. The Bucks are the better team this season. While I certainly expect the well-coach Celtics to now counter with some adjustments of their own here at home in Game 3, the fact is that Milwaukee is the more talented team in this match-up. The concern for the Celtics is that Giannis Antetokounmpo made only 7 field goals in Game 2 and Boston still lost the game by more than 20 points! The Bucks start did have 29 points in the game but the fact his teammates poured in 94 points is a good sign of things to come in this series for Milwaukee. I know the Pacers team the Celtics team faced in round one was tougher than the Pistons team the Bucks faced in round one. However, I still can't get over the fact that Milwaukee absolutely crushed Detroit throughout that series and it was never in doubt while Boston actually could have lost each of their 4 games with Indiana. Yes the Celtics games with the Pacers were "that close" even though it ended up being a sweep. The Bucks went 7-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Boston is 10-15 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. No bounce back here for the Celtics. 10* MILWAUKEE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers simply continue to get no respect from the betting markets. After losing to the Nets in Game 1 of their first round series with Brooklyn many were saying the Sixers wouldn't even survive Round One. Of course Philly proceeded to win 4 straight over the Nets. Now, of course, the Raptors are a much better team than the Nets and I am NOT saying the same thing here (that Philly will win 4 straight). But here is what I am saying, Game 3 is a fantastic situation for the Sixers. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 of this series they responded with a huge Game 2 effort and got a key road win at Toronto. Now everyone expects the Raptors to bounce right back and win Game 3 as Philly opened up as a 1.5 point favorite but now is a 1.5 point dog. Lets not forget that one of the biggest concerns for the Sixers is the health of Joel Embiid. That said, the extra rest that has been afforded between Games 2 and 3 of this series is a huge edge for Philadelphia. Additionally, the home crowd will be amped up for what is just the 2nd home game for the 76ers since mid-April. This will be an incredible atmosphere in Philly and they won their last two home games by 22 points apiece. The Raptors get a lot of hype and love due to their finish to the regular season but this still a Toronto team that is only 12-9 SU (and 9-12 ATS) in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record and they have a first year head coach. The Sixers are 16-11 SU against teams with winning record and 33-11 SU in home games this season. Everyone continues to doubt this 76ers team and we'll take advantage with the great line value considering this favorable situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #577 Wednesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 9:05 ET - It looks easy to simply take the Nuggets on their home floor, right? Of course this was particularly true when the line opened up at a 3.5 in some of the big books offshore. Not surprisingly, the line is now up to as high as a 4.5 as of game day morning and I am fading the masses and grabbing the road dog here. The Trail Blazers are off back to back non-covers. Note that Portland is a PERFECT 8-0 SU the last 8 times they've entered a game on an ATS losing streak of 2 or more games. Though I do expect the outright upset here I am grabbing the points with the Blazers for added insurance in this one but, the point is, a SU win is likely in this one so having a handful of points too is simply an added bonus for us. The Nuggets were on a 5-9 ATS run in home games before notching the win and cover in Game 1 of this series. I look for Denver to drop to 11-19 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Trail Blazers will turn up the heat on defense after allowing 121 at Denver Monday. Note that, prior to that game the road team had covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams. Keep in mind, since the All-Star break two and a half months ago, the Blazers have lost back to back games only ONCE! Look for a huge bounce back from the road team to even this series up but grab those points for the added insurance. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #572 Tuesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - I had the 76ers last night after they got thoroughly embarrassed at Toronto in Game 1. The result? A never in doubt cover even though many pundits left the Sixers for dead after the Raptors destroyed them in Game 1. The same principle applies to this match-up. As a result of the Celtics winning big at Milwaukee in Game 1, there is already a strong anti-Bucks pro-Celtics attitude among the so-called experts. As always, over-reacting to one game is a common theme in today's "what have you done for me lately" world. I am going contrarian here and grabbing a Bucks team others won't want to lay the points with and, certainly, it is not without plenty of logic and reason. First off the Celtics made 34 of 56 two point FG attempts in Game 1 while Milwaukee made only 18 of 50 two point FG attempts. Give plenty of credit to Boston for that but do you really think the Bucks aren't going to make adjustments for Game 2? They are on their home floor and will be fired up and ready to respond on BOTH ends of the floor after being embarrassed in front of their own fans in Game 1. Keep in mind that is a 32 point difference on two pointers. If Bucks just play "even" with Boston from inside the arc they win Game 1 by 10 points and I feel they can do even better than "even" with the Celtics in Game 2. After all, Milwaukee is 21-1 SU (including 11-0 SU at home) when coming off a loss this season. Okay, but what about the cover? Milwaukee, if you like them to get the SU win here, should also be whom you back for the cover because 83% of their wins this season came by 8 or more points. In fact, 16 of their 17 wins since March 1st have come by a margin of 8 or more points. As for the Celtics, 8 of their last 11 losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points. The Bucks roll big at home in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Even more so today than in the past, likely to due to social media influence and the overall vast amount of media coverage on games and match-ups, public opinion is swayed extremely fast. The Sixers are now "left for dead" in this series because they lost Game 1. That is simply preposterous. Let me explain what happened in Game 1. The Sixers shot less than 40% from the field while the Raptors shot better than 50%. Games like this happen from time to time for all teams and Philadelphia is no exception. Yes, I am aware of their poor recent history at Toronto but think of all the bad teams the 76ers have had in recent seasons that helped build that 0-14 SU run in games played north of the border. Philadelphia, of course, is a much better team this season and the fact is that the Sixers had 13 offensive rebounds in Game 1 compared to the Raptors having just 2 and that helped lead to a 14-2 edge in 2nd chance points. Overall for the game the 76ers took 10 more shots from the field. They weren't soft, they just didn't shoot well. The fact is Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam had huge games for the Raptors in Game 1 but you can bet the 76ers will make some adjustments. The remainder of Toronto's team combined to score just 34 points in Game 1 on 13 of 41 shooting. Remember what happened when Philly lost Game 1 to the Nets in the first round and everyone was bashing the 76ers? They responded and won 4 straight games to quiet the critics. Of course I am not saying that is happening here in this series but I am saying that getting a revenge-minded Philly team +6.5 points again in Game 2 is a great value. Keep in mind this is still the first season for the Raptors Nick Nurse as a head coach at the NBA level. Don't be surprised when the Sixers win the "adjustment game" here in Game 2. The fact is you know that Leonard and Siakam are highly unlikely to combine for 74 points again just like the 76ers Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler are extremely unlikely to go 15 for 47 combined from the field again! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - The Warriors Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are dealing with ankle injuries entering this game. Thompson's appears to be the bigger concern but, either way, it is definitely an issue. Many are going to look at the low spread on this game and jump on the home team but the contrarian viewpoint should prove to be the right viewpoint here. The fact is that the Rockets are only getting about a half-dozen points here with good reason. Not only the fact that Curry and Thompson may not be 100% but also the fact that Golden State is off a bit of a grueling series with the Clippers. That series with LA took more effort from the Warriors than many expected and, while Golden State is on short rest here, the Rockets have a solid rest edge after dispatching of the Jazz in 5 games. The Warriors are a long-term 11-24 ATS in Sunday games including a poor 2-9 ATS this season. Golden State is also 14-24 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Rockets enter this game on a 9-3 ATS run. Also, Kevin Durant just had a huge series against the Clippers but he never scored more than 29 in the 3 games versus Houston this season. He won't be able to carry the Warriors against a high-quality Rockets team like he did against the 8th seeded Clippers. If the Rockets are going to steal a road game in this series this looks like a great spot given the rest edge. I am grabbing the points as added insurance but I truly do expect an outright upset. 10* HOUSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #552 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 1:05 ET - Both teams are off first round sweeps. However, while the Bucks absolutely destroyed the Pistons in each and every game, the Celtics barely beat the Pacers in each and every game. The fact is Indiana had a chance to win every single game against Boston but played some of the worst situational basketball I have ever witnessed. The point is that the Celtics won't be so lucky as to receive a gift-wrapped win here from the Bucks like they seemed to receive in nearly every single game with the Pacers in that first round series. This Milwaukee team had the best record in the NBA regular season and, barring a major injury, is built to go all the way this year. That said, I am happy to lay a reasonable number here with the Bucks on their home floor. Milwaukee, if you like them to get the SU win here, should also be whom you back for the cover because 83% of their wins this season came by 8 or more points. In fact, 16 of their 17 wins since March 1st have come by a margin of 8 or more points. As for the Celtics, 8 of their last 11 losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points. Boston is very well-coached and may be able to make some adjustments after Game 1 but I see the Celtics getting blasted here as the Bucks are full of emotion and momentum right now after their first round sweep and are ready to roll on their home floor in this one! 8* MILWAUKEE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 10:05 ET - The Spurs shot a very high percentage in their Game 6 win and that included both from inside and outside the arc. San Antonio will not repeat that on the road. First off the Spurs have lost 6 of their last 7 road trips to Denver. Secondly, the Nuggets are fired up after letting the elimination opportunity slip away in the 2nd half of that game at San Antonio. Denver, when playing on their home floor off a SU road loss is a perfect 9-0 SU the last 9 times! You can easily see why it is logical for the Nuggets to get this home win. However, what about the cover? Note that each of the last 5 games in this series have been decided by 9 or more points. Also, 6 of the Nuggets last 7 wins have come by a margin of 9 or more points. Each of the Spurs last 6 losses have come by 7 or more points. San Antonio shot a ridiculous 57% from the field in Game 6. The last 7 times the Spurs are off a game where they shot 48% or better from the field, they've gone 1-6 ATS in their next game. You can see whey the odds strongly favor a solid home win for the Nuggets in this win. 10* DENVER

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - Too little respect being given to the Sixers here. Yes they went just 1-3 in the regular season series between these teams but this is a different team with all hands on deck and playing the way they're playing right now. Philadelphia didn't have Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris all season long as those guys were acquired during the season. Additionally, Joel Embiid will be playing here for sure and he joins Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick to give the Sixers a very impressive starting five. Additionally, Boban Marjanovic was also acquired during the season and gives Philly a big man off the bench. The 76ers got their wake-up call in Game 1 against the Nets and then won 4 straight games. Speaking of Game 1 significance, the Raptors are 2-14 SU all-time in Game Ones of a playoff series. Considering that poor record as well, I'll gladly grab the Sixers plus the significant points as this line opened up at a 5.5 and is now a 6.5 as of early game day morning. Give me the undervalued underdog here. 8* PHILADELPHIA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #534 Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 10:05 ET - With their upset loss at home on Wednesday, the Warriors are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Golden State continues to be over-valued and now they are laying double digits on the road in a game where the Clippers absolutely will not quit. Once again it is "win or go home" for Los Angeles and I look for another huge effort here just like we saw in Game 5. The Clippers are 13-7 ATS when trailing in a playoff series and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. In Friday games this season LA is 10-4 ATS (including 12-2 SU). Though I don't another outright upset tonight I am fully expecting that the Clippers stay within single digits in this one. Keep in mind, after the Clips got blown out in Game 1 of this series, 3 of the last 4 games have been decided by single digits. This one will be too. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs are not the team they use to be and that fact continues to show in the post-season results. San Antonio has lost 11 of its last 14 playoff games, got eliminated from the playoffs in the first round last season, and is about to suffer that same fate this season. Yes, the Spurs have home court on their side in this Game 6 but I love the fact that is allowing us to get the Nuggets +3 in this one. Denver has not only won the last two games (including Game 4 in SA), they've dominated as they've won each of the last two games by double digits. Keep in mind, the Spurs have not held the Nuggets below 108 points in ANY of the last 4 games. Conversely, San Antonio has been held to 105 points or less in 4 of the 5 games. It is easy to see which team is executing better and I look for Denver to close this out tonight but am happy to grab the 3 points as added "insurance" in this one. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they held their opponent to 90 points or loss. The Spurs are 11-17 ATS when they enter a game having allowed 105 points or more in 3 straight games. Simply put, San Antonio hasn't been able to get stops when they need them throughout the majority of this series. That problem continues to ail them tonight. 10* DENVER

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz played much better defense at home than they did in the first two games of this series at Houston. Look for Utah to carry over that strong play to this game. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 3 by only 3 points and then won Game 4 by double digits. Their confidence is growing with each game and the Rockets are now going to be in a fierce war to try and put this team away. The Jazz are 14-6 SU their last 20 games and 4 of the 6 losses have come by 6 points or less. That means if you had Utah +7 or more in their last 20 games you would have cashed 90% of your bets! The point being that, despite how the first two games of this series played out, the Jazz are not an easy team to blowout. With the strong defense expected to continue here, I look for Utah to hang tough with the Rockets throughout Game 5. The Jazz are getting more points tonight (8 or 8.5) than they did in the first two games of this series (6.5) and this is even though they are playing their best basketball of the series right now. I am grabbing the added value and expecting an absolute war tonight that ends up being decided by just a single possession or two at the most when the final horn sounds. 10* UTAH

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Brooklyn Nets @ 8:05 ET - The first game in this series stayed under the total because the Sixers shot an unreal 3 of 25 from three point land on their home floor! The next two games went over the total and then Game 4 stayed under the total as both teams shot less than 32% from beyond the arc. In other words, that was a statistical anomaly and a repeat of that is unlikely. In fact, I like that fact the Nets averaged 117 points per game in the two games played here in Philly while the 76ers have responded very well since the Game 1 loss. Not only has Philly won 3 straight games, they've averaged 129 points per game in the last 3 games. The Sixers are hungry to close this out but also feeling a lot less pressure since they were able to eke out a tight win at Brooklyn in Game 4. The point is that I look for a very loose Philadelphia team (no pressure) to be shooting the ball very tonight in Game 5 but I also would not be surprised to see them also playing loose on defense. After all, defense is certainly not the strength of the Sixers. Couple that with the fact that these teams are both comfortable playing at a fast pace and that both teams shot less than their typical 3-point shooting percentage in Game 4, and you have the perfect recipe for an over here. The over is 8-3 this season when the 76ers enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The over is a long-term 13-5 in Sixers games since mid-March. Also, the total on this one has dropped from 231 to 229.5 and that adds some value as well. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #573 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Even though the Pistons have been held to 38.5% or less from the field in all 3 games of this series, 2 of the 3 have gone over the total. Of course part of the reason for that is the fact Detroit has been struggling to stop the Bucks but the other reason is that the pace has certainly been there for an over as well. The Pistons have averaged 96 field goal attempts per game so far in this series. With tonight being "now or never" for Detroit, I look for another game to again feature a good pace for an over. The Pistons will go "all out" here at home and note that the over is 8-2 in the last 10 games for Milwaukee and also 3-1 when the Bucks are leading in a playoff series. The fact is Detroit can't stop the Bucks but I also don't expect the Pistons to go away without a fight tonight as they look to avoid suffering a sweep and having it occur on their home floor. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Milwaukee's last 4 road games. The Bucks have averaged 124.1 points per game in their last 10 games. If Milwaukee hits their average here and the odds makers are correct about the line (Bucks by a dozen) you have a 124-112 type game and that has this one ending well above the current total of 217.5 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - This is an early start time (12:35 PM PT) and the Warriors haven't been at their best in these types of games this season. In fact, Golden State is 2-8 ATS in Sunday games this season while the Clippers have gone 10-5 ATS in Sunday games this season. After LA got thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor in Thursday's action, they've now had two full off days to think about it and build up their intensity for Game 4. I look for a huge effort from the Clippers as the Warriors are unlikely to shoot better than 70% in the first quarter like they did in the big Game 3 win. Going further back, Golden State is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 Sunday games so this hasn't been just a one-season trend for them. Perhaps too many weekend distractions for the best team in the NBA is the culprit but whatever the theory it is not a trend I will ignore. I also love the fact this line is climbing up close to a full 10 points because I know the Clippers aren't going to lay down here. They're going to be going hard for the full 48 and if they fall short I expect it to be just single digits! 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #566 Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 1:05 ET - The Pacers are looking to avoid the sweep and certainly don't want to get knocked out of the playoffs on their home floor via a sweep. Even with winning their last two road games, the Celtics are still only 8-7 SU in road games since the All-Star break. Indiana is 26-10 SU in their last 36 home games. In other words, a bounce back is likely here for the Pacers  Entering a game off exactly 3 straight non-covers, that is a situation that has happened 6 times this season and, in 4 of those 6 occurrences, the Pacers covered the 4th game. Look for that trend to continue here and I expect the outright upset but am happy to take the added point spread value here as a line that opened up around a pick'em now has Indiana catching 3 points on their home floor! The Pacers are 9-3 SU and ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. 8* INDIANA 

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets @ 5:35 ET - The Nuggets Murray, Barton, and Harris combined to make just 8 of 25 from the field and only 2 of 6 from the free throw line in Thursday's loss. Even with those horrible numbers Denver still scored 108 points and the game easily went over the total. Now we're seeing Saturday's total having dropped from an opener of 211 all the way down to a 207.5 and the value is with the over here. The Spurs have been getting strong guard play and the Nuggets had strong guard play in Game 2 before faltering in San Antonio in Game 3. Both those games went over the total and I expect that trend to continue here as Denver's backcourt responds after a poor game Thursday but they continue to struggle to stop White and DeRozan for the Spurs. The Nuggets don't want to get into a half-court game here with the Spurs as that plays right into the strength of San Antonio. Denver, facing a nearly insurmountable 3-1 hole with a loss here are going to try and play this game at their tempo and "force the issue" with quick buckets in transition and not allowing the Spurs defense to get fully set. Denver has scored 108 points or more in 6 of its last 8 games. SA has scored an average of 113.5 points per game in their last 17 home games. Take advantage of the line move here and expect another very entertaining battle with big scoring runs from each team at points throughout this game just like we've seen in the last two between these foes. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 3:05 ET - As I mentioned Thursday, the 76ers destroyed the Nets in the second half of Game 2 and that has set the tone for the rest of this series. Brooklyn embarrassed Philly on their home court in Game 1. Now the Sixers will be looking to return the favor as the series has shifted north and Philly won Game 3 and now looks to sweep the two games in Brooklyn with another strong effort in Game 4. The extra rest helps Philadelphia's Joel Embiid as he was able to sit out Game 3 and I know he is listed as doubtful for this game as he continues to battle with knee issues. However, considering he only logged 21 minutes in Game 2 and that game took place on Monday, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays in Game 4 on Saturday. Keep in mind, he was also listed as doubtful for Game 1 of this series but he ended up playing. The Sixers have been getting strong play from other big men when Embiid has sat so they've survived his absences. Note that Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in first round playoff games and this line is only a 1.5 so any SU win likely to lead to a point spread cover as well. In fact, with the money line very low here that is how I would recommend playing this one. Lay the short price on the money line. As for Brooklyn, of course they would love to bounce back here but the Nets are 2-7 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 23 of the Nets last 24 losses have come by 3 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #552 Friday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Magic have had two full days of rest to ponder getting blasted at Toronto in Game 2 of this series. Orlando, previous to the ugly loss Tuesday, had won 12 of its last 14 games prior to the Game 2 loss. Also, the Magic are certainly happy to be back at home where, since January 31st, they have won 13 of their last 14 games including 9 straight. Yes they played some weaker foes in that stretch but the victories included wins over 4 playoff teams including the 76ers and Warriors. At the very least the Magic have earned some confidence based on their home performance the past 2 and 1/2 months! Orlando also is 15-5 ATS this season versus Atlantic Division foes. The Raptors are still just 7-10 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 5-11 ATS in Friday games this season. Even including Tuesday's blowout win, this is a Toronto team that is just 9-13 SU and ATS in playoff games. The line opened up at a 4 on this one but has moved to a 5 as the Raptors have the attention of the market. That means even more value with a Magic team that is going to be very tough to put away on their home floor and has a great shot at the upset! They will respond after Tuesday's ugly loss. 10* ORLANDO

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers destroyed the Nets in the second half of Game 2. That has set the tone for the rest of this series. Brooklyn embarrassed Philly on their home court in Game 1. Now the Sixers will be looking to return the favor as the series shifts north. The extra rest helps Philadelphia as Joel Embiid continues to battle with knee issues. Considering he only logged 21 minutes in Game 2 and that game took place on Monday, he is likely to be very strong for Game 3 on Thursday. Also, his back-up Boban Marjanovic had a very solid Game 2 and that is a good sign for the 76ers. Note that Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in first round playoff games and this line is only a 2.5 so any SU win likely to lead to a point spread cover as well. Brooklyn, of course, would love to bounce back here but the Nets are 2-6 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 22 of the Nets last 23 losses have come by 3 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter Sunday and still almost covered the spread. Indiana made a TOTAL of 8 field goals in the 2nd half Sunday and still almost covered the spread. You get my point. That was UGLY basketball and yet Boston still barely covered the spread. That line, just like this one, was right around a 7.5 and the Celtics prevailed by 10 despite scoring only 84 points. Note that Indiana's lowest scoring game this season had been 89 points. In other words, had the Pacers simply not scored any less than their worst game so far this season they would have won the game outright by 5 points. Give the Celtics defense some credit for sure but also consider it an aberration for the Pacers offense, a one-off if you will. In other words, look for a huge bounce back tonight. Indiana is angry, embarrassed, and they will be on the attack tonight and score much, much better. The Pacers are a long-term 22-11 ATS (including 7-3 ATS this season) when playing with revenge for a road loss by a double digit margin. Indiana is also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 April games and 29-16 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Boston is 21-32 ATS (including 7-12 ATS this season) as a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Overall, the Celtics had failed to cover 8 STRAIGHT home games prior to their miracle comeback and cover from a double digit half-time deficit in Game One. It is payback time for the Pacers and, even if they fall short of the outright upset, they'll stay inside this number. 10* INDIANA

Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The zig zag theory is one that often applies come playoff time in the NBA and that is the theory I am using to our advantage here. The fact is the markets often react greatly to the prior game in a series and when the markets zig I often like to zag and go the other way when the situation is right because we're getting extra value. That is precisely the situation here. Yes the Raptors are in bounce back mode and I do expect them to find a way to get the SU win here but I don't expect it to come by a significant margin. The fact is that Orlando has been one of the hottest teams in the league dating back to late January. The Magic have been shooting the ball very well and are playing with a ton of confidence. When you get a team like that getting double digits (by the way this line has gone from opening at 8.5 in some shops to now as 10.5 in some shops) this fits the very definition of a high value dangerous dog. Orlando will be playing in Toronto for the 3rd time already this month and 4th time since late February so they're certainly getting more and more comfortable playing here. As for confidence level, the Magic are actually 3-2 SU versus the Raptors this season and one of those two losses came by just 2 points. The other one came by a dozen points but Orlando actually had 9 more shots from the field than Toronto did but yet lost by 12 because the Raptors hit an insane 19 of 37 three pointers. Again, you can see why I am seeing value signs flashing here when we can get Orlando plus double digit points given all of the above factors. Toronto is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games and also 2-6 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series! The Magic are 13-4 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 15-4 ATS this season against Atlantic Division opponents. Grab the undervalued big dog in this one. 10* ORLANDO

Rise of the Fallen - Rickenbach NBA Game #522 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 8 ET - After being embarrassed in Game 1 and ruthlessly criticized as the most unacceptable effort of any team so far in this post-season, the 76ers respond Monday. The reason you're seeing this line exactly where it was at for Game 1 is because the odds makers are expecting the same thing that sharp bettors, the Sixers will respond in a big way here. If you look at the box score from Saturday's ugly home loss for Philadelphia, you'll see that the Nets and Sixers each took about 25 three-pointers. The difference? Brooklyn made 11 of theirs and the 76ers made a paltry 3 of theirs...on their home floor no less! The point is that this is a 24 point difference. If you assume the teams just shot equally from beyond the arc in Game 1 the Sixers win the game by a 15-point margin. Philly won the rebounding battle and also got to the line more - 16 more free throw attempts than the Nets. Back to the 3 point shooting, note that the Nets shot 35% from three point land this season while the Sixers shot 38% from beyond the arc in their home games. In other words, you can see just how unlikely those disparate 3-point shooting stats were in Game 1. Philly is a long-term 38-19 ATS when revenging a home loss and that includes 7-3 ATS this season! The Nets are 8-17 SU when they enter a game on an under streak of 3 or more consecutive unders. That SU record is noteworthy here as the Nets last 22 losses have featured 18 by 8 or more points. In other words, when Brooklyn loses they normally lose big and I expect that to prove to be the case again today. Payback time! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:30 ET - Of course it is well known that the Blazers are without Jusuf Nurkic but the good news is that they have got CJ McCollum back. The key about Nurkic is that he had 6 blocks and 7 steals in the 4 games against the Thunder this season. His replacement is Enes Kanter who can match Nurkic's scoring but not his defense. An example of that is that Kanter has had 0 blocks in 12 of his last 14 games. The point is that the situation for Portland with their big men is a help to the over here. The 4 games between these teams this season averaged 228 points in regulation (took the OT period out of the equation). That means it seems like we may not have that much value with this total at 225. However, keep in mind Nurkic played all 4 of those games. It will be a little different for the Trail Blazers without him. Also Paul George has had huge success against Portland this season as has Russell Westbrook. On the flip side Damon Lillard has been huge against the Thunder this season. There is a great pace to match-ups between these teams and I expect a tight ball-game but one that is played fast and with plenty of scoring and transition points. All 4 games Saturday stayed under the total but you know that is not going to be a trend that lasts and the odds makers have this as the biggest total on the board Sunday with good reason. Additionally, both teams wrapped up the season going 8-4 to the over their last 12 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Portland

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 1 ET - The Pacers, of course, are without Victor Oladipo but that has been the situation since late January so they have already adjusted. As for the Celtics, they just lost Marcus Smart to an oblique injury and he'll miss this series entirely. Additionally, Boston's Jaylen Brown continues to deal with back spasms. The Pacers lost here by just 2 points two weeks ago but then last week the Celtics pounded them at Indiana. However, the Pacers were missing guard Darren Collison for that game and he is back now. Even though Boston only went 7-6 down the stretch, Indiana did even worse by going 4-9. That allowed the Celtics to overtake the Pacers and have the home court edge in this series. However, Indiana knows they can take it back with just one win here in Boston. Yesterday we saw 3 of the 4 road dogs not even cover but win the game outright to open up their first round playoff series. I would not be surprised to see the same thing here. The Pacers are on a 7-2 ATS run in playoff games. The Celtics went 6-12 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Boston wasn't playing well enough in the latter part of the season to justify laying 7 points here. The Pacers nearly beat them here March 29th and the Celtics had Smart for that game. When you can grab a sizable dog that has a great shot at the outright upset you do it. That is the case here. 8* INDIANA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic @ 5:05 ET - This total opened up at a 216 but has dropped to as low as a 212.5 as of early game day morning.  I love the value with the over here.  The Magic are a very confident underdog here and I expect that to lead to plenty of points as they hang around in this game. Keep in mind, Orlando wrapped up the season winning 11 of their last 13 games. The Magic have scored an average of 116.5 points per game in their last 13 games! The over is 7-0 in Orlando's last 7 games. The Raptors final game of the regular season totaled 220 points which resulted in an under but would be an over given today's line. Either way, prior to that game, Toronto had only 4 unders in their 16 prior games! The Raptors have averaged 116.6 points per game their last 17 games. I know this is playoff basketball but I still the odds makers had it right and if any movement at all occurred with this total it should have been the other direction. A similar move in the other direction would have had it up near 220 and based on the way these two teams have been shooting and scoring as well of the pace of their games, I do expect at least 220 here. In other words, we've got very strong line value in this one. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 2:30 ET - With the news that Joel Embiid is doubtful for this game, great line value for the Sixers has been created. They are laying a short number here considering they absolutely coasted down the stretch, rested guys, didn't play defense, and the list goes on. Watch what happens today now that the games actually matter again, they are at home, and the other 4 starters will all be on the floor. Butler, Simmons, Harris and Redick form quite a grouping of talent even if Embiid does not play. Also the pick up of big man Boban Marjanovic has truly proven to be a big addition with Embiid's ongoing knee and back issues. Boban Marjanovic is quite the presence in the paint. Brooklyn had a losing record on the road this season plus went 19-35 SU as an underdog this season. From a SU perspective, the 76ers (31-10 SU at home) certainly should win this game. What about the spread though? Consider that Philly is on a 4-1 ATS run in first round playoff games. Also, the Nets last 22 losses have featured 18 by 8 or more points. In other words, when Brooklyn loses they normally lose big and I expect that to prove to be the case again today. Great line value here as this line has dropped from a 7.5 to a 5.5 and, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Embiid does get some minutes in this game. But even without him, the Sixers are the much better team than the Nets and they defend home court here, literally! Look for a much better effort from the 76ers defense than what you've been seeing late in the regular season. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Tuesday 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Raptors are going to the post-season of course and the Wolves are not. Toronto also has been playing much better than Minnesota has. However, this is the Raptors last game of the regular season and they are locked into the #2 spot in the Eastern Conference. Of course Toronto would like to close the regular season with a win and wants to continue to play well. However, the last thing they want is to get anyone injured in this game. Of course Minnesota has no concerns about that and I expect them to go very hard in what is their final home game of the season. The Timberwolves are off a poor effort on defense that cost them in a 6-point home loss to Oklahoma City Sunday. I expect Minnesota to respond here in what is their last chance to get a win for the home fans. Many will likely be surprised to hear this (and I am aware that Minnesota is a different team now than earlier in the season) but the Wolves 25-15 home record is identical to the Raptors 25-15 road record. In other words, and especially given the situation, should Toronto really be laying 7 here? Absolutely not! Give me the home dog in this one! 8* MINNESOTA 

The Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks @ 8:05 ET - Who is going to play defense here? The Bulls just faced a Sixers team that was very hungry for a win to lock in playoff seeding and to end a season-long losing streak. As a result, the Bulls scored just 96 points in that game. But that was the first under that Chicago has had in their last 4 games. As for the Knicks, they are coming off their first under in their last 5 games. However, that game totaled 223 points and would get us a win based on today's total. With regards to today's total note that the very first number that popped up off shore on this one was 219 but then it immediately dropped to 215. As of early game day morning, it has settled in around the 216.5 mark. I understand the drop on the total as neither one of these lineups renders any excitement in terms of star power but lets talk facts here! This is a meaningless late season game between two non-playoff teams where the level of defensive intensity is going to vary somewhere between minimal and non-existent! Chicago has allowed an average of 118.7 points per game their last 13 games. New York has allowed an average of 117.2 points per game their last 11 games. Each of the first two meetings this season went over the total and all signs point to another one here. Keep in mind if each team allows 108 points or more we can't lose this play (based on current number of 216.5). The Knicks have allowed 109 points or more in 10 of their last 12 games. The Bulls have allowed 112 points or more in 13 of their last 14 games. I know the lineups lack star power but these guys are hungry and looking to pad stats in a game where the winner does not matter. I see good pace here in this game as well as continue lack of defense and we should see this game get well into the 220s. 10* OVER the total in Chicago

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #504 Tuesday 8* Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The line on Charlotte has gone from as low as a -6 to as high as a -8 and that makes sense for multiple reasons. The Hornets need to win for playoff reasons, Cleveland has lost 9 straight games, and Charlotte has won 3 straight games. However, the key reason it doesn't make sense is a mediocre Hornets team is laying a big number on the road against a Cavaliers playing their final game of the season and the Cavs are at home. I don't see Cleveland laying down in a situation like this as they also can play the role of spoiler here. Additionally, Charlotte is banged up right now. The home team has won all 3 games this season and each win has come by double digits. While I don't necessarily see the Cavs winning this one at home by double digits I also certainly don't foresee a full reversal and the Hornets winning this by double digits on the road. In other words, look for a dog fight to the finish in this one. Charlotte is 5-14 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in Tuesday games this season and will go hard for the home fans in their final game of the season. 8* CLEVELAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #578 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The first number that popped up off shore on this one Saturday afternoon had the Celtics favored by 6.5 and it has dropped to as low as a 4.5 as of early Sunday morning. This is offering us great line value here with Boston at home as Orlando is currently getting a little too much respect. The Magic are off a blowout win but it came against an Atlanta team that decided just to "go through the motions" on Friday. Orlando took advantage on their home floor. But now the Magic are on the road and facing a Boston team that, as usual, has been strong at home this season. Also, the Celtics are motivated here as they look to lock up the home seed for their upcoming first round series with the Pacers. Orlando is only 15-24 on the road this season and the Celtics are 28-12 at home on the season. Each of the last 7 losses for the Magic have come by 5 or more points with each of the last 6 coming by 8 or more points. 10 of the Celtics last 12 wins have come by 5 or more points. The home team is 12-4 ATS in Orlando's last 16 games. The Magic have been hot but the Celtics are also heating up, including Gordon Hayward, and they've won 5 of their last 6 games. 10* BOSTON

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #567 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets @ 4:05 ET - The very first totals that popped up offshore on this one were closer to 220 than to 215 but, as you can see, there has been a big drop toward that latter number. I like the added value here and feel the odds makers had it right! The fact is that Blake Griffin is now back for the Pistons and he is coming off a monster game. As for the Hornets, they aren't going to quit until their eliminated from post-season contention. They fully realize their chances are slim but, with emotions buoyed by a dramatic win hosting Toronto Friday, this Charlotte team has renewed energy entering this game. Also, the Hornets have won all 3 games with Detroit this season so they have plenty of confidence here. Charlotte will get their share of points (averaged 115.5 points in last two visits here) but won't be able to stop the Pistons. With Griffin back, Detroit scored 110 Friday and that was on the road at Oklahoma City. They'll do even better at home in this one. Yes, this series has trended under and, yes, there are playoff implications here. However, the fact remains that neither one of these teams is exactly dominant defensively. In fact the Pistons have allowed an average of 114 points their last 3 games and the Hornets have allowed 116.8 points per game their last 10 games. Take advantage of the line value here. 8* OVER the total in Detroit

NBA TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers, of course, have some injury/rest concerns as they try and get prepared for the playoffs. However, their inexcusable loss to the Bucks (Philly led by 5 with just a couple minutes left) has resulted in the Sixers FIRST 3-game losing streak of this entire season. Of course it is a bad time to be cold and they know it. They will respond here and, as far as whom sits and whom plays for the Sixers, note that the Bulls are also ravaged by injuries. Chicago is off an upset in at Washington as roughly a double digit dog too. How did they do it? The Wizards played like they didn't care and the Bulls (even with many unknown players) shot a ridiculous 61% from two-point land. I will challenge them to do that again here as they take on a very hungry 76ers team that certainly is in a much different situation than that of the Wizards. This Philly teams needs a win and needs to get their confidence and swagger back so I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas here. Keep in mind, the Sixers also are now in need of at least one win to lock down the #3 seed they've worked so hard for. Plenty of motivation here and don't let the big spread scare you. Philly, finally, goes the full 48 minutes in this one! They have two days off after this so the 76ers will NOT hold back. The Bulls are 14-25 ATS at home this season. Chicago is also 6-11 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. Also, the Bulls most recent loss came by 8 points but 6 of the prior 8 came by 9 or more points and this one has double digit blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Saturday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 5:05 ET - Not only are the Bucks off a miracle cover at Philadelphia Thursday (they were -5.5 and won by 6 despite being down by 5 with just a couple minutes left in game), it is also true that Milwaukee could care or less about this game. The Bucks have already locked up the #1 seed for the post-season in the Eastern Conference. They want to stay in rhythm but they also want to avoid injury. Even if they do get up by double digits in this game (which I honestly do not expect) the back door would be wide open for the Nets to come back as, again, there just isn't motivation here for Milwaukee. As for Brooklyn, there is some motivation as they've lost all 3 games with the Bucks by a double digit margin this season. Look for this one to be much closer than the other 3 given the situation. Also, Milwaukee is 2-7 ATS this season in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. The Nets are 9-4 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and they get the cash again here. 8* BROOKLYN

SE Div GOY - Rickenbach NBA Game #535 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - This is one of those beautiful late season situations simply too good to pass up on. The Magic control their own destiny because if they win out they are in the post-season. However, they now host a divisional foe that would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Keep in mind, even without big man Dewayne Dedmon, the Hawks continue to look strong! Atlanta has won 5 of its last 7 SU and also gone 6-1 ATS during this stretch. They are relishing the role of spoiler and truly fit the bill as a dangerous dog in a spot like this. All the pressure is on the Magic here and when a team starts to feel pressure that is when they start losing their shooting touch. This line has gone from as low as a -6 yesterday afternoon all the way up to as high as a -9 early this morning. Of course bettors love to bet the teams that "need to win" and yet that so often proves to be the WRONG thing to do and I fully expect that will be the case again tonight. The Magic are going to have a fight on their hands with the Hawks who continue to scratch, flight, and claw their way to gritty victories and covers. With Trae Young dominating the backcourt and John Collins getting it done in the frontcourt, the Hawks have proven to be a handful for playoff-bound teams like the 76ers and Spurs. Perhaps Atlanta falls short of the upset tonight but, if they do, I expect them to lose this game by only a possession or two so the points should prove to be more than enough here for the cover! The Hawks also are 11-6 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. The Magic are 3-11 ATS (and only 5-9 SU) in Friday night games this season. Upset alert! 10* ATLANTA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers have been resting Joel Embiid and that could be the case again tonight plus Jimmy Butler is a question mark too. Of course this is why you're seeing the Bucks favored by as much as 5.5 in this one as of Thursday morning when lines first popped up again on this after it was off the board. Philadelphia is off back to back losses but the Sixers are 6-0 SU this season when they enter a game off B2B losses. You read that right...Philly has NOT lost three straight games yet this season and yet they are a 5.5 point home dog here. I'll take it! Yes the Bucks are a great team but Philly isn't just going to lay down here at home. Also, the Sixers cupboard certainly is far from bare if they decide to rest 1 or 2 players tonight. The Bucks have lost 5 of their last 8 road games SU. Also, the Bucks depth has been impacted by a slew of injuries lately. The Sixers won and covered the most recent meeting in Milwaukee as well as each of the last two meetings in Philly and I look for more of the same here. I do expect the outright win but am grabbing the points for added "insurance" here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Wednesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - At first glance one would have to question how can the Wizards (eliminated from post-season contention and just terminated the team president) be favored by double digits over anyone. Well, against these Bulls it actually makes perfect sense! Chicago is expected to again be without their 4 leading scorers and they account for about 70 points per game for the Bulls! Of course this is too much to overcome and that was proven when they lost to the lowly Knicks in their most recent game. Chicago is currently putting a team on the floor filled with inexperienced players who are trying to adjust to the NBA game. Conversely, though Washington is also "getting a look" at players for next season, the Wizards younger players are thriving. Washington just won at Denver and got strong contributions from a number of players. The Wizards are playing hard and have won 3 straight games ATS and they rallied from a 15 point and then allowed just 28 second half points to the Nuggets on Sunday. Though just returning from a road trip out west, the fact that the Wizards have had two full off days to prep for this game means they'll be ready and I expect them to dominate on their home floor. Washington will take advantage of a very short-handed Bulls team. Chicago has failed to cover 3 in a row and I foresee the Wizards improving to 4-0 ATS their last 4 games with a dominating home win. 10* WASHINGTON

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #580 Tuesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:05 ET - Perfect spot for a contrarian play. We get a little extra value here because the Lakers have surprisingly won 4 of their last 5 SU and are on a 5-0 ATS run. The Thunder have been struggling. The key here is OKC is at home and angry due to losing 7 of their last 9 games. Also, this is a home revenge spot for Oklahoma City as they lost as a host versus the Lakers in January. The Thunder lost that game by double digits despite being a double digit favorite! Payback comes big tonight! OKC is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Lakers are 9-18 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The recent wins for Los Angeles all have come against below .500 teams. They face a much different "animal" tonight and that "animal" is angry and seeking revenge. This will be a home blowout. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY

NW Div #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - Great line value here with the Trail Blazers coming off a loss. Yes the Timberwolves recently upset Golden State but that certainly has been the exception rather than the norm for this slumping Minnesota team. Other than that win, the Wolves have won just 1 of their last 8 games and that victory came against lowly Memphis. Now Minnesota is hosting a Trail Blazers team that is angry off a loss and won't lack for focus here. Keep in mind the Blazers lost at Minnesota early this season so they'll be ready to exact road revenge here. Yes, Portland has won their two home match-ups with the Timberwolves this season but now it is time for road payback for that loss in mid-November. As mentioned above, the Blazers enter this game off a loss but, prior to that defeat, they had won 9 of their last 10 games. Yes, Portland is without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic but that is factored into this line. The fact is that the Wolves are without a number of players too as they enter this match-up and this is simply a matter of the much better in a great spot (off a loss) facing a team that has faded down the stretch run. The result is great line value with the short road favorite. Minnesota is 2-5 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. The Blazers are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record and roll again here. Each of the Trail Blazers last 28 wins have come by a margin of 4 or more points! Each of the Wolves last 14 losses have come by a margin of 5 or more points. Lay the short number! 10* PORTLAND

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #549 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks @ 3:35 ET - The Thunder have been inconsistent on the offensive end of late. However, now comes the perfect remedy. The Mavericks are in town and Dallas is eliminated from post-season contention. I fully expect Oklahoma City to run and gun this game and it is likely to turn into a home blowout. However, I am never a fan of laying huge points in the NBA and this spread currently sits at a dozen points. Don't be surprised if the Mavericks score well in "garbage time" in this game as well. The Mavs are 6-3 to the over in Sunday games this season. The Thunder are 10-2 to the over in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. OKC has allowed 115 points or more in 4 of its last 6 games. Dallas has allowed an average of 115.4 points in its last 7 games. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City

NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The markets sometimes help create value where it otherwise should not be and that is the beauty of a situation like this. First off this line was first up at an 8.5 but then got taken down because of Joel Embiid possibly missing this game. Now that it is confirmed that he will sit this game out to get extra rest the line has now plummeted to as low as a 4.5 this morning. The funny thing is did anyone pay attention to last night's games? The 76ers were NOT in action and were resting and getting ready for this game. As for the Wolves they were in the middle of a hard-fought overtime win over the World Champion Warriors last night! So now after knocking off the champs and taking OT to do it, the short-handed Timberwolves (a number of players out recently) are supposed to beat a Sixers team that has man-handled them in recent meetings? Yes I know about the "revenge against Jimmy Butler" angle but Philly is the far superior team and in a much better scheduling situation. This game is set up to be a road rout! Prior to beating GS last night, Minnesota had lost 10 of their 14 prior games. The 76ers enter this game having won 7 of their last 9 games. The Sixers are off a big win over Brooklyn and are 11-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. The Timberwolves are on a 15-25 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics are 7-2 to the over in their last 9 games. Boston has allowed 48% or more from the field in 7 of their last 10 games. The Celtics have shot 47% or better from the field in 10 of their last 12 games. The other time they hosted Indiana this season the game totaled 243 points. The Pacers are 8-4 to the over in Friday games this season. Boston is 13-8 to the over this season after a win by a margin of double digits. The Celtics also are 10-6 to the over in games against Central Division opponents. The tempo at which Boston has been playing of late and the fact the Celtics are at home here and should control the pace of this game will be the factors that combine to lead to another high-scoring game between these two. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - Enough is enough for the Sixers. After knocking off their nemesis (and long-time rival) Boston, they've lost back to back games at Atlanta and Orlando. Now they are back home and in need of a big win and the Nets are going to feel the wrath. Note that Philly is 5-0 SU this season when they enter a game off B2B SU losses. You read that right. The Sixers have NEVER lost 3 straight game this entire season and I don't expect that to change here either. However, what about the spread (currently 7.5) on this game? The fact is that the Nets are 7-26 ATS in their last 33 losses! In other words, when you're holding a Brooklyn ticket and they lose the game SU, you're only cashing your ticket about 20% of the time! I like the 76ers to roll big at home in this one as they also are playing this game with home loss revenge. That is a situation that has seen them go 37-19 ATS in recent seasons including 6-3 ATS this season. Also, when the Sixers are off a loss by a double digit margin, they've gone 37-18 in recent seasons including a superb 10-3 ATS this season. This one has home blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Thunder have had some struggles on offense in recent weeks. However, I am expecting a big bounce back on their home floor tonight after both Paul George and Russell Westbrook struggled in Oklahoma City's loss at Memphis Monday. As for the Pacers, they are expected to get a boost with the return of point guard Darren Collison tonight. Even if he does not return though, look for Indiana's struggles with defense on the road to continue. The Pacers have lost 8 straight road games and the fact they've allowed 110 points per game in those defeats has certainly played a role in it. The Thunder defense has not been impressive of late either as they've allowed 113.5 points per game during their current 1-5 overall stretch their last 6 games. The OKC loss to the Grizzlies Monday was an ugly one and the over is 4-1 in 2019 when when the Thunder are off a loss by a margin of 11 points or more. Indiana is 3-0 to the over the last 3 times they were off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Look for the Pacers offensive production to pick up right where it left off in the win versus Denver Sunday while the Thunder offense gets back on a roll at home after the poor effort versus the Grizz began this week on the wrong foot. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City

Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Many will be looking to fade Orlando here because they are off a big win over the 76ers last night so it looks like the ideal spot to go against a team in a back to back situation. However, remember that we are now at the point in the season where there are very few "tomorrows" left for a team. In other words, the Magic need to win now or their season will be coming to an end. They are in a battle with Miami for the top spot in the Southeast Division and punching their ticket to the post-season. That said, there is absolutely not going to be a letdown here from the Magic in the slightest sense of the word. The time to win is now. I also like the fact that Orlando did have two days off prior to hosting the Sixers last night so they are truly not that fatigued here. Additionally, hosting Philly last night was just the 3rd game for Orlando in the past 8 days! As for Miami, though they have been off two days heading into this one they had played 5 games in 7 days prior to the 2-day break. In fact one could argue that the Magic should have the fresher legs here overall despite being in a back to back. Orlando has played less recently than Miami has. Also, not much distance separates these instate rivals so it truly should not come as a big surprise that the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Heat won and covered their most recent home game but that was preceded by a 4-9 ATS run as a host! Also, the Magic are surging with confidence as they bring a 5-game winning streak into this one. If Orlando falls just short here I like the fact we've got a handful of points to work with as well but I am expecting the outright upset here. The Magic are 16-7 ATS after scoring 115 points or more and also 12-6 ATS this season after a win by a double digit margin. Last night they held Philly without a field goal for a stretch of 12 minutes! Miami is 1-6 SU and ATS in Tuesday games and the Heat are an ugly 5-10 ATS in divisional match-ups this season. 10* ORLANDO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #558 Tuesday 8* Charlotte Hornets (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are off a big road win at Boston on Sunday. However, the road has not been kind to San Antonio of late. In fact the Spurs were 3-8 in their last 11 road games prior to beating the Celtics. Now instead of facing a floundering Boston team that is struggling, the Spurs visit Charlotte where the Hornets are rested and have been buzzing. Charlotte was off yesterday and they enter this game still very much alive in the 3-way race for the Southeast Division. With Miami battling Orlando tonight, the Hornets know that with a win over the Spurs they would be able to gain ground on one of those two teams for sure once tonight's results are in the books. Charlotte enters this game having won 3 straight SU and ATS. Also the Hornets have won 3 of their last 4 home games SU and they are catching a few points here. I like the home dog value being offered here with all things considered. The Spurs are 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they were off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Look for that trend to continue here. 8* CHARLOTTE

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #549 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Grizzlies are off an under but the over was 6-1 in their 7 prior games. As their hopes for a playoff spot have faded, their focus on the defensive end has also faded as well but the markets aren't properly assessing that factor and we can take advantage here. The total opened up at a 220.5 and has already dropped to a 218.5 as of early game day morning. It is likely headed even lower as the recent under streak that the Thunder had is fresh in the minds of the marketplace too. However, OKC is now 2-0-1 to the over in their last 3 games and they've allowed 47% or more from the field in EACH of their last 4 games. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times these teams have met in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 8-4 to the over this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Oklahoma City is 18-8 to the over this season when off a non-conference game. Also, the Thunder have gone 9-2 to the over in their last 11 games versus teams with a losing record. Look for more of the same here and fade the false perception of the marketplace in this one. 10* OVER the total in Memphis

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Great line value here. Orlando is getting some attention because they've won 4 straight games. However, even with winning those 4 games the Magic still have a losing record on the season. Philadelphia is angry after losing at downtrodden Atlanta on Saturday and will atone for that performance here. The 76ers are 9-2 SU their last 11 games against a team with a losing record. Speaking of losing records, the Hawks were one of 4 teams with losing records that Orlando has beaten in their 4-game winning streak. The other 3 were the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Cavaliers. Those 4 teams are all eliminated from post-season contention and are a combined 86 games under .500 on the season! Now the Magic host a Philly team that is angry off a loss and is 21 games over .500 on the season. This is tremendous line value to have with the Sixers laying a short number and it is because they are on the road and because of Orlando's "fools gold" 4-game winning streak. The Magic face a true test today and it is one they will fail. Philly is 5-1 their last 6 against Orlando and the 5 wins have come by an average margin of a dozen points. Keep in mind the 76ers are 20-5 SU this season when off a loss and this line is only a -2. In other words, any SU win is likely to also equate to an ATS win. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:35 ET - While it is true that this is a back to back spot for the Celtics, there are a number of reasons to like Boston plenty in this situation and laying a very short number. The line has dropped from a -3 to a -2 so we're getting some extra value here for sure. Keys to this play include the fact that the Celtics blew a huge late lead in their loss at Charlotte yesterday. As a result, Boston ended up with their 3rd straight SU loss. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS the last 11 times they've entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Boston also has no shortage of motivation here. That's because the Spurs have held the upper hand in recent meetings and that includes the first match-up this season at San Antonio. The Celtics led that game by 6 at the half but then got outscored by 15 points in the 2nd half. It is payback time here. The Spurs are off back to back losses and their recent winning streak that grabbed a lot of attention was filled with home games and a majority of soft opponents. In other words, look for San Antonio to lose their 3rd straight game here as not only are they not at home, they are also certainly not facing a soft opponent. The Spurs have lost 4 of their last 6 road games and the only two wins came at Atlanta and Dallas. Those teams are a combined 37 games under .500 on the season! The Celtics are 98-42 at home including 26-11 this season. With those types of numbers and considering the low spread on this game, I am happy to lay the short number here. 10* BOSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Sunday 8* OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 12:05 ET - The Knicks are off an under but previously had gone over the total in 3 straight games. New York's 3 prior games saw them allow an average of 129.3 points per game. Prior to a dismal effort in their home loss to the Nuggets, the Knicks had scored an average of 115 points per game in their last 6 home games. The Clippers enter this game also off an under that, just like the Knicks, snapped a 3-game over streak. Los Angeles has allowed an average of 113 points per game their last 13 games. The Clippers have scored an average of 118 points per game their last 12 games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The over is 7-2 this season in LA's games against Atlantic Division opponents. Also, Los Angeles is 25-12 to the over this season in games in which they are a favorite. More of the same expected here. 8* OVER the total in New York

Hidden Gem - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - I am calling this a hidden gem because the fact it is that on a Saturday when the NCAA Tournament is going in full force there is simply very little attention being paid to the NBA. That works in our favor here as this line should be much higher than an 8. This is a revenge game for Philadelphia as they suffered a home loss at the hands of the Hawks in January. While it is true that the 76ers are off a much needed revenge win over the Celtics, it is also true that they have had two full off days since that game and after facing the Hawks they face another team, Orlando, that also has a losing record on the season. The point is that even if the Sixers start off a bit sluggish in Atlanta their superior talent level is eventually going to lead to a double digit win. Keep in mind the Hawks also, it could be argued, are in a flat spot here. That is because they just rallied for an upset win over the Jazz on Thursday. Prior to that win the Hawks had lost 10 of their last 15 games. The 76ers enter this game having won 6 straight games. Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in games against teams from the Atlantic Division this season. Philly is a long-term 37-18 ATS (including 6-2 ATS this season) when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Sixers are 11-3 ATS when off a divisional game this season. In other words, even though they are off that big win over the Celtics, don't be surprised when the 76'ers eventually roll to a road rout win at Atlanta on Saturday night. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Early ATS Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:35 ET - The Cavaliers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games and that included knocking off the Raptors and the Bucks! Now they host a Clippers team playing the first game of an eastern road swing. These road trips tend to be tough on west coast teams. Even if the Clippers find a way to notch a road win here I expect it to come by the slimmest of margins. Certainly with the Cavaliers confidence growing with each late season win they are playing their best basketball of the season and have a chance at the outright upset here. Kevin Love has been cleared to play and that was a key for me in backing the Cavs here. The Clippers are off a win and cover but, prior to that big home win versus the Pacers, the Clips had failed to cover 3 straight games. The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. Los Angeles is 12-21 ATS when the Clippers enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. 10* CLEVELAND

Early ATS Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #586 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are off back to back losses (SU and ATS). However, Atlanta previously was on an 11-3 ATS run. Also, though the Hawks have lost 3 straight games SU, that included match-ups with the Celtics and Rockets. Of course the Jazz also fall into the "quality team" category but I like the fact that Atlanta is at home and catching Utah in the 2nd game of a back to back. Getting 8 points with the Hawks in a spot like this is a great value. The Jazz are on a 5-game winning streak both SU and ATS but are still just 3-8 ATS when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 3 or more games. In other words, don't be surprised when their 5-game run comes to an end tonight (at least ATS). Look for the Hawks to improve to 11-6 ATS this season when they enter a game on a losing streak (SU) of 3 or more games. 10* ATLANTA

Atlantic Division #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers purposely rested Joel Embiid last night in their win at Charlotte so he would be ready for this huge match-up tonight as the Sixers host the Celtics. The very first number that popped up offshore on this one had Philly -4.5 but the line has dropped down to as low as a -2.5 as of early game day morning. This is offering great line value on a Philadelphia team that has an extreme hunger about them when it comes to knocking off Boston here. Not only are the Celtics long-time rivals, not only did Boston knock the 76ers out of the post-season last spring, the C's also have won all 3 meeting this season! To say that Philadelphia "owes them one" is a colossal understatement. The fact is the Sixers owe them plenty and with Boston off a loss and having lost 7 of their last 13 games, the timing is perfect here. The Celtics games against quality opponents (Denver, Clippers, Golden State, Houston, Portland, Toronto, Milwaukee) have seen them go 1-6 SU since the All-Star break. In other words, with the exception of beating the Warriors, the only wins that Boston has been getting since the All Star break have come against weak foes. Also, the Celtics last 6 losses have come by an average margin of 14 points so the spread should not be an issue here. As for the 76ers, they have won 5 straight games. Also, the Sixers have won 14 of their last 20 home games. When playing with home loss revenge Philly is 37-17 ATS including 6-1 ATS this season. The Celtics have covered just 6 of their last 18 road games. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have Boston on deck and also will be resting Joel Embiid tonight. As a result, many will be looking the way of the Hornets in this one tonight. However, Charlotte is 0-9 SU in their last 9 games against the Sixers. Also, the Hornets play in the weakest division in the NBA. Even though Charlotte fell short at Miami Saturday, they are still 10-5 against Southeast Division opponents. That means that the Hornets are a horrible 21-33 against the rest of the league! They now host a Sixers team that is 45-25 on the season! Also, Philly is 8-1 SU its last 9 versus teams with a losing record. The Hornets are 3-10 SU their last 13 versus teams with a winning record. Charlotte is also a long-term 14-36 ATS (16-34 SU) against Atlantic Division opponents. The Hornets enter this game on a 4-10 SU run and 3-11 ATS run. Also, even though Philly has the Celtics on deck, they are well aware of the fact that they are in a huge battle with the Indiana and Boston in terms of the 3,4,5 seeding in the Eastern Conference. Dropping to 5th means no home court edge in the opening series. In other words, with just a dozen regular season games left, every W counts. Look for the 76ers to get this W against an out-classed Charlotte team as the Sixers make it 10 in a row over the Hornets. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - Many believe the Western Conference is better than the Eastern Conference and it has been that way for many consecutive seasons. I feel we're getting great value here with a high-quality Nuggets team as a sizable underdog here. The Celtics are 10-17 ATS against the West this season. Denver enters this game having gone 16-8 SU against the East this season. Also, the Nuggets are 14-8 ATS (15-7 SU) this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive games. Boston is a long-term 11-20 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Celtics are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times they've allowed 115 points or more. Boston got the sweep last season (but only by a combined margin of 7 points) and the Nuggets are looking to return the favor this season after already winning at home by 8 points earlier in the season. Based on the above trends, the situational value here, and the fact the Celtics are a little banged up, don't be surprised if the road dog wins this one outright. Grab the points! 10* DENVER

Earliest Cash Total Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #535 Monday 8* OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - The Jazz have averaged 118 points per game in their last 5 road games. The Wizards have averaged 122 points per game in their last 8 games overall. Washington is 17-6 to the over in non-conference games this season. In games against teams with a winning record this season, the Wizards have gone 21-9 to the over. This will be Washington's first match-up against the Jazz this season but the over is 5-1 this season in Wizards games against teams in the Northwest Division. Look for more of the same in this early evening Monday match-up. 8* OVER the total in Washington

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #521 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - Not only is Philadelphia 10-5 SU their last 15 games, 3 of the 5 losses came by 3 or less points. Of course that means that at +6.5 (the current line on today's game), the 76ers would be on a 13-2 ATS run. Certainly Milwaukee deserves plenty of respect and the Bucks are at home here. However, there isn't nearly enough respect being given to a Sixers team that is viewing this game as a chance to prove themselves against one of the best teams in the league. The Bucks have covered each of their last two home games but prior to that they were on an 0-3 ATS run in home games. Keep in mind, Milwaukee just returned from a 3-game road trip too. Conversely, Philly has won 3 straight games and has been enjoying the comforts of home. The 76ers have revenge from a loss by a double digit margin at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season. Philadelphia is a much different team now than they were then when these teams met in late October. Keep in mind the Bucks were only favored by 5 in that game. Now they are favored by 6.5 even though the Sixers now have Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. You can see why the Sixers are offering great value here. Also, Philly is 38-18 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. The Sixers are also 57-30 ATS when coming off a non-conference game. The Bucks are 2-6 ATS in a home game with a posted total of 230 points or more. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Saturday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:05 ET - The Pelicans have a winning record at home this season. The Suns are 6-30 on the road this season. So when this line opened up at nearly a pick'em, it comes as no surprise that everyone jumped all over New Orleans in this game and drove the line to as high as a -3 on the Pelicans. However, do you think the odds makers are fools? They knew what they were doing here! Anthony Davis (rest) and Jrue Holiday (abdominal) are listed as out for this game. Also, the Pelicans have lost 5 straight games overall and also 5 straight home games. The Suns have been playing better of late as they've actually won 5 of their last 9 games overall. Also, Phoenix is on a perfect 4-0 ATS run in road games and 2 of those wins were outright upset wins. Ride the hot team (Phoenix) in this one as they improve to 8-4 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. In the process, the Suns will drop New Orleans to 3-10 SU this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. 10* PHOENIX

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks @ 12:35 ET - The Hawks are 6-2 to the over their last 8 games. The Celtics are 3-0 to the over their last 3 games. It is hard to envision Boston giving a great effort on defense against the lowly Hawks. The Celtics likely will look right past them as they have a much tougher game (Denver) on deck. Boston has allowed 119 points per game their last 4 games. Atlanta is completely comfortable with getting involved in run and gun games. Since the All Star break the Hawks have allowed 111 points or more in all 11 games and they've allowed an average of 121 points per game since the break. Atlanta has also scored 111 points or more in 10 of those 11 games and they enter this game having averaged 130 points per game the past two games. More of the same expected here. 8* OVER the total in Boston

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have revenge from a loss at Sacramento earlier this season and, keep in mind, the Kings did sweep Philly last season. It is definitely payback time here and the Sixers are catching Sacramento at the right time to exact revenge. The Kings are off a hard-fought loss at Boston last night. Note that the Kings are an ugly 2-8 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the Sixers SU and ATS loss at Sacramento early last month certainly appears to be an aberration. The 76ers are a fantastic 7-1 SU and ATS in their other 8 games against Pacific Division opponents this season. Philly's Ben Simmons has been upgraded to probable for this game as well and a double digit victory is in the forecast here. The Sixers playing with 2 days of rest between games while the Kings are in a back to back. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:05 ET - The Thunder are off a win versus Brooklyn yesterday that stayed well under the total as I know all too well. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over today. Oklahoma City had a horrific start on the offensive end yesterday and that set the tone for the entire game. Now on the road and in a back to back spot, the Thunder know they can ill afford another slow start. I look for OKC to hit the floor running in this one and we should see a good pace throughout. Oklahoma City is 16-6 to the over this season when coming off a non-conference game. I am well aware of the fact that, like the Thunder, the Pacers have been trending under of late. However, the Pacers have scored an average of 125 points per game in their last 4 home games versus teams from the Western Conference. The over went 3-1 in those 4 games. Indiana, going further back, is 6-2 to the over the last 8 times the Pacers have been a host in non-conference action. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Indiana

TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - I looked like a fool with my play on the over in Brooklyn on Monday but I don't know if I have ever seen something like this in my life! The Nets gave up just 75 points even though they allowed the Pistons 97 field goal attempts! Detroit simply was horrific with their shooting as they made just 27.8% of their shots from the field! Truly unreal and also noteworthy here as the over is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times the Nets were off a game in which they allowed 75 points or less. Brooklyn's pace has certainly been conducive to overs of late even though overs have not been cashing in. The Nets have allowed an average of 101 field goal attempts in their past two games and 97.2 FG attempts their last 11 games! The Thunder certainly have no qualms about getting into high-scoring shootouts with teams but, like the Nets, they are off of a bit of an unusual game. They played the defensive-minded Jazz and Utah and Oklahoma City both failed to reach the century mark in that game. The over is 18-9 in Brooklyn's last 27 games against Northwest Division opponents. The over is 13-7 in Oklahoma City's home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The over is 4-1 the last 5 times the Thunder were off a game in which they held their opponent under 100 points. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #535 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Cavs are off a big upset win over the Raptors last night. Don't be surprised if they are a little flat on the defensive end tonight. The 76ers are rested after a big win over Indiana Sunday. In that game the Sixers really turned the heat up on defense in the 2nd half to eventually pull away and win by double digits. As they now face one of the worst teams in the NBA and also have 2 more off days on deck after this. I would not be surprised to see Philly lacking in defensive intensity tonight as well. The last 3 meetings between these teams all went over the total and they averaged 242.7 points per game. As you would expect with that type of average, all 3 games flew over the total! The Cavaliers enter this game on a 7-3 run to the over. Cleveland is 11-5 to the over this season in games against Atlantic Division opponents. As a home favorite of 12.5 points or more, the 76ers are 3-1 to the over this season. The Sixers have averaged scoring 124 points per game in their last 3 games against the Cavs. The Cavaliers have scored an average of 121.3 points per game in their last 3 visits to the City of Brotherly Love. Look for more of the same in this one as it crushes the posted total. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:35 ET - The Nets have stayed under the total in 4 straight games. However, Brooklyn has scored an average of 118 points per game their last 3 games. But, as a result of the under streak, the posted total on this one already dropped from an opener of 222.5 down to a 221 overnight heading into Monday. The Pistons come into this game off an under but, prior to that, the over was 9-1 in Detroit's last 10 games! Also, the over is 10-5 this season in Pistons games against Atlantic Division opponents. Detroit has averaged scoring 121 points per game in its last 4 games. The over in Nets game improves to 14-8 the last 22 times they've entered a game on an under streak of 3 more consecutive games. Both teams have been scoring very well and that continues here. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 3:35 ET - It looks like Joel Embiid will be back for this game. Even though the Sixers got blown out by the Rockets in their most recent game they truly were done in by poor shooting. If they had just shot "normal" Philly would have won the game outright. Instead it was a blowout loss but that helps with the line value here actually. The 76ers are a very manageable favorite against a Pacers team that they blew out by 24 in the most recent meetings at Indiana. The Pacers are on a poor 3-11 ATS run in their last 14 road games. The Sixers are very hungry for a win here and will be rejuvenated by the expected return of Embiid and the fact this game is at home. Philly is off back to back losses and they are a perfect 4-0 SU when off B2B straight-up losses this season. Indeed, the 76ers have not lost 3 straight games this entire season and I don't expect that to change here. Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen them go 2-5 ATS this season. The Sixers are 36-18 ATS (including 9-3 ATS this season) when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, Philly is 74-46 ATS long-term in home games. Look for a blowout by the host in this one with a winning margin by double digits expected. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #573 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - The over is a red hot 11-2 in the Wolves last 13 games. The over is 12-2 in the Wizards last 14 games. This is a back to back spot for Washington and they are 29-13 to the over their last 42 when in the 2nd game of a back to back. The Wizards are 9-1 to the over in Saturday games this season. Minnesota is playing this game with revenge and that is a situation that has seen them go 21-9 to the over this season. Also, the Timberwolves are 7-0 to the over in games against teams from the Southeast Division this season. Minnesota is 18-6 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The over is 14-2 in Washington's last 16 games. This is a key divisional battle but I just don't see how this game won't go over the total as both teams have been trending over and they've also trended over in their recent match-ups. 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Charlotte's most recent game stayed under the total but they entered that game having gone over the total in 9 of their 12 prior games. Also, the Hornets most recent game ended up with a ridiculously low total of points scored. Charlotte managed only 84 points against the Heat on Wednesday and the over is a perfect 5-0 this season when the Hornets are off a game in which they were held to 93 points or less. Charlotte held the Heat to just 91 points on Wednesday and the Hornets are 5-0 to the over the last 5 times they are off a game in which they held their opponent under the century mark. Charlotte's divisional games are 8-4 to the over this season. Washington is 9-3 to the over in divisional games this season. The over is 13-6 in Wizards games with posted total of 230 points or more. In other words, though this total may appear to be big, it will prove to once again be not big enough. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The Pacers are off an under versus the Bulls Tuesday but they actually allowed 93 field goal attempts in that game. A poor shooting night for Chicago helped insure that the game did not go over the total. However, Indiana entered that game on a 5-1 run to the over. As for the Bucks, they are also off of an under. Milwaukee had a poor shooting night at Phoenix Monday. Despite 95 field goal attempts, the Bucks game versus the Suns stayed under the total. Certainly the proper pace was there for an over and that is nothing new in recent Milwaukee games. The Bucks entered that game on a 4-1 run to the over. 2 of the last 3 meetings between the Pacers and Bucks in Milwaukee have gone over the total. The Bucks are happy to be back home and I expect a huge game from them on the offensive end after that shot poorly in back to back games to wrap up their road trip. The over is 27-16 when Milwaukee is off an upset loss as a favorite. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Bucks enter a game with two days of rest between games. Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge and I look for the Pacers over to improve to 5-2 this season when in that situation. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Both teams in a back to back spot here. This line opened up at a -6 and dropped to a -5 on Philly. Although the Bulls have won some games recently those victories have almost all come over poor teams with losing records. One exception was the Celtics but Boston was in a funk at the time. The fact is that Chicago is an ugly 4-24 SU this season in games against teams with a winning record. The 76ers are a solid 17-6 SU this season in games against teams with a losing record. You can see why the likelihood is high that the Sixers get the win. That said, the pointspread dropping to a -5 offers significant value here. 38 of the Bulls 46 losses this season have come by a margin of at least 5 points. Philadelphia has had a lot of rest prior to this back to back situation so that sets them up well. Yesterday's win over Orlando was just the 3rd game for the 76ers in the past 8 days. The Bulls, conversely, will be playing for the 4th time in 6 days. Chicago is 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU!) in their last 20 home games that had a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are on a 23-12 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA