NBA Monday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:10 ET - The Celtics are dealing with a number of injury concerns entering this one. Boston just hammered the Pacers at Indiana Saturday but look at a key stat from that game and that tells you all you need to know here. The Celtics made 16 of 41 threes while the Pacers made just 8 of 42 threes. bey is very unusual for this high-scoring Indiana team and yet the Celtics won that game by only 17 points. That means if you back out the 24 point edge from beyond the arc, the Pacers win the game OUTRIGHT by 7 points! Considering this plus immediate revenge plus a 2nd chance at home against Boston plus all the Celtics injuries, the home team underdog looks like a great option here. The Pacers will be better on the boards in this one too. It was an all-around embarrassing effort so this is a great opportunity for immediate revenge and they will make the most of it! Grab the points - currently 3.5 as of early game day morning. 10* INDIANA (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers have some injury question marks but those are minor and don't be surprised if most, if not all, of those guys play in this one. Also, the Sixers are not just off a home loss, it was the worst loss of the season and it came right here in Philly. The 76ers next game is on the road so don't be surprised if they go all out here in this chance to get right back on track. The Sixers bounce back after almost every loss and the Jazz just got hammered at Boston. Yes, Utah wants to bounce back but they are still on the road. and a lot of their recent wins were over poor teams with bad records. Tonight they face an angry beast on the road and this one gets ugly. This is the type of situation where the Sixers will keep the pedal to the metal all game long! This line has dropped to the 11 range as of about 6.5 hours before tipoff. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers are stronger at home than on the road and their 13 point win in most recent game does not even do it justice. Philly led by as many as 31 points in that game but then took their foot off the gas. Also, they were able to rest guys in that one and no one played more than 31 minutes. They will be rested and ready for this one and this line is currently in the -6 range but that suggests that the Sixers are only 3 points better than the Knicks on a neutral floor and I disagree with that. The Knicks are improving but they are not that close to the Sixers level. Also, New York is 9-11 on the road while Philly is 13-4 at home. Those are SU records of course but 9 of the Knicks last 11 losses have been by at least 9 points. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:30 ET - Yes, this line is a big one at 9.5 overnight but the Bucks absolutely should win this one by double digits. Milwaukee is in the 2nd game of a B2B but will still play very well here as they are off B2B losses so they will be fired up for this game against a lesser opponent. The Bucks have not lost 3 straight games all season. As for the Spurs, they are having a very rough season and many of their recent losses, even at home, have come by a big margin. San Antonio has lost 26 of 28 games and each of their last 3 home losses have come by at least a dozen points. The average margin of those 3 home losses was 27 points and another ugly one awaits here as Bucks are fired up to get back on track. 10* MILWAUKEE (-)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:40 ET - This total is as low as a 247 as of 8 hours before tipoff and I am fully expecting this one gets into the 250s at least. The Thunder are off the huge home win over Boston last night. I do not expect the defense of OKC to be at its best after such a big win like that. However, this Thunder team continues to pile up points and the Hawks are certainly known for giving up big numbers! Atlanta, well-rested here and at home, will look to run and gun here and drive Oklahoma City right out of the arena. However, OKC has the firepower to keep up. It sets this one up well to have a great pace with very little defense and plenty of stretches in which the teams are simply trading buckets. Note that the Hawks have allowed 124 ppg in their last 16 games. However, Atlanta is also averaging 122 ppg this season. The Thunder have fared well in B2B spots this season with a 3-0 record and averaging 129 ppg. However, OKC has allowed big points this season too...just like the Hawks. The pacing and situational aspects of this one set it up perfectly to get it into the 250s. These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the league plus the Thunder are hot plus the Hawks have revenge here for a loss at OKC earlier this season. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - This line is in the 10.5 range as of 8 hours before tipoff and is the final meeting between these teams this season and the Bulls have taken the first two games. This is a double revenge spot for a Philly team that will have Embiid back on the floor for this one as well. Chicago is 15-19 on the season and Philly is 22-10 and there is also strong home/road dichotomy factors here as the Sixers are 12-4 at home and the Bulls are 4-10 on the road. Of course these are all SU records but I see Philadelphia winning this game huge with Embiid back on the floor and the fact this is double revenge including a home loss two weeks ago as well. The Sixers just lost at Chicago on the 30th as well so they enter this game off a loss. Philly is 3-0 L3 times coming off a loss. Blowout alert! 10* PHILADLELPHIA (-)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ LA Clippers @ 10:40 ET - A lot of injury issues here on both teams. I am aware of the situation and I know Butler will miss this game for Miami. However, this is too much underdog line value (7.5 as of 9 and 1/2 hours before tipoff) for Miami. The Heat are coming off a loss and a perfect 5-0 SU the last 5 times they were off a loss. Of course a SU win for Miami is a guaranteed ATS win in this one as they are a sizable underdog in this one. We'll grab the points here but we may not even need them. Note that the Clippers are off B2B wins but Kawhi Leonard will not be 100% here even though he is expected to play. LA had lost B2B games before those two wins and the Heat have won 3 straight meetings. Also, the Clippers do not have a win by more than 7 points in any of the past 6 meetings. I am grabbing the points with a hungry Heat team coming off a loss. 10* MIAMI (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:10 ET - This total currently in the 225.5 range. I am well aware there are some injury and illness question marks for each team entering this one but I expect most of those guys to play and I feel we have value here with this rather low total. Consider also that if some of the bigger guys are out that opens things up for more of a "small ball" style of game and I would not be surprised to see both teams go off big in this one. 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games have totaled at least 228 points. The Timberwolves are a fantastic 23-7 this season and scoring an average of 116 ppg last 10 games. The Lakers are just 3-6 last 9 games but have scored 120 ppg last 10 games! LA has allowed 121 ppg their last 9 games. As you can see, we have a lot of wiggle room given numbers like this as the Lakers and Wolves both currently trending toward higher-scoring games. Even if one or more of the big guys is out for this one, this total still gets there as it is just too low given all of the above. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Pick -120 @ Houston Rockets @ 8:10 ET - We get line value here because the Sixers are again without Embiid but they did just beat a solid Magic team at Orlando by 20 points. Also, that win was no fluke. They had 17 more shots from the field so, in other words, Philly dominated play in that game and, again, it was sans Embiid. The Rockets have lost 3 of 4 home games and 5 of 7 overall. Houston is a solid respectable team but so is Orlando and we all saw what just happened there. The 76ers have a great clubhouse feel right now and they like to prove they can win without Embiid. They will do so again right here on Friday. 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:10 ET - The Spurs might be without Wembanyama as he has a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable. I know the Jazz have not been good this season but were it not for the Pistons losing 26 games in a row I feel we would all be hearing much more about just how horrific this Spurs run has been. San Antonio started this season 3-2 but they have since gone 1-22 in an awful run of futility only overshadowed by the Pistons nightmare run. Also, 23 of San Antonio's 24 losses this season have been by at least 3 points so laying the number here (currently 3 as of about 11 hours before tipoff) is no problem either. The Jazz have won 5 of last 7 games so they have won more games the past two weeks than the Spurs have won all season long! Only 1 of Utah's last 11 wins have been by less than a 3 point margin. So excellent value here because of the Jazz being on the road for this one and we'll fade San Antonio again here. 10* UTAH (-)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Miami Heat @ 8:10 ET - Embiid is out for the Sixers but now they are catching 3 points as of about 9 hours before tip off. Keep in mind, Butler might miss this game for the Heat. Either way, I like the value here of a deep Sixers team catching points because of the absence of Embiid. This is a rare chance to catch Philly as an underdog and, keep in mind, Miami is 0-3 SU the last 3 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of at least 2 games. Including post-season games, the Heat are just 19-19 SU last 38 games. Philly is 29-12 SU last 41 games. The Sixers are 8-1 SU last 9 games overall entering this one and offer exceptional line value here. I know they are without Embiid but the Sixers are so loaded with other talent and depth that they will get the Christmas Day upset here. We'll grab the points just in case but I do not expect to need them. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:40 ET - The Mavericks are off an ugly 122-96 loss at Houston. They were without so many guys but I expect some back here for this one and Doncic is on track to play! That will be a big boost to the Mavs and they will take advantage of facing a Spurs team that is having a disastrous season. San Antonio started the season 3-2 but has since gone 1-21. This is unreal and the Spurs and 7 of the last 8 losses have been by 8 or more points. The current line on this one is in the 7.5 range and SA likely to get hammered again as Dallas is angry off an embarrassing loss. The Mavericks had won 5 of 6 before  tough recent slide but those 5 wins by an average margin of 14.6 points! They can roll this SA team that is an absolute disaster right now. The Mavs already won by 7 against the Spurs earlier this season and that game was at San Antonio and the Spurs were a different team then. They are really lacking in confidence and execution compared to the team we saw early this season. 10* DALLAS (-)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:10 ET - Current line on this is an 8.5 as of 7 hours before tipoff! There is only one team in the entire NBA that does not have a SU divisional win yet this season and it is the Raptors! Toronto is 0-7 SU in divisional action this season and their road losses in divisional games have come by an average margin of 14 points per defeat. The Sixers have won 7 of 8 and each of their last 6 wins have come by a double digit margin! In fact, the average margin has been 29 points! Philly should roll huge again here as this is their last home game until after New Year's so they will make the most of it. Toronto drops to 0-8 SU in divisional games this season and you can see why I am expecting the win to be by a double digit margin! 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs LA Lakers @ 9:10 ET - This line is up around an 8 but it is with good reason. James is out for the Lakers and Davis is questionable for LA. Both these teams are off losses yesterday but Minnesota is the much healthier team plus overall the stronger team plus they have the home court edge in this one. Also, the Timberwolves are a PERFECT 5-0 SU this season when off a loss. Additionally, when off a loss in which they allowed 127 points or less, the Wolves are not only 4-0 SU but every single win was by at least a 16 point margin and that means they are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season in this situation. Look for this one to make it 5-0 ATS on the season as this will be a home blowout against a short-handed Lakers team. 10* MINNESOTA (-)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) vs LA Clippers @ 8:40 ET - The Mavs are getting about 2.5 points here and of course it looks easy to lay the 2 or 2.5 with the Clippers here as they have won 8 straight games! Of course we all know what usually happens when something looks too easy, right? Indeed! So the point is this is the perfect time to go contrarian and back the Mavericks as a home dog in this one. First off, note that 6 of the 8 wins in the Clips win streak were home games! Also, one of the only two road wins was against a Jazz team that now stands just 10-17 on the season. The Clippers are still just 5-7 on the road this season and now they face their toughest road test since a 120-114 loss at Golden State. Also, 2 of the other road wins LA has this season were against a Western Conference league-worst Spurs team! So, the point is the Clippers are facing a much bigger challenge here but we get line value because of the current LA hot streak! Let's take advantage as the Mavericks are off a loss and they have gone 7-2 this season when coming off a loss! 10* DALLAS (+) 

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Phoenix Suns @ 10:10 ET - Big revenge game for the Suns is on deck against the Kings. That said, I like the value here of the big home dog Blazers who are playing this game with revenge and have been playing better of late but are off a tight home loss in which they covered ATS versus the Warriors. The Trail Blazers are still fighting hard for a win to snap their losing streak and they are on the cusp and should battle all the way through again here in this one. The points are a huge value in this one given the revenge situation for the home dog and the lookahead situation for the road favorite in this one! 10* PORTLAND (+)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - This line in the 11 range as of about 9 hours before tipoff. I know this is a big number and normally I do not like to lay such big numbers but this 76ers team, including their bench play, is absolutely on a tear right now. The Sixers have been getting great play from their bench and this has allowed them to sustain blowout margins in recent games and they are at home here and the Bulls have struggled overall this season. Chicago is a little better than their 10-17 record in my opinion but they are dealing with injury issues and the Bulls also are on the road and walking into a buzzsaw here. The 76ers have won 6 straight games and the average margin has been 27 points! Yes they are dominating teams! Each of last 4 wins by at least a margin of 18 points! The Sixers should roll big again here as on deck is a Western Conference foe and that game is not until Wednesday. So Philly is fully focused here. Also, though they won most recent game with Bulls, they lost the game immediately before that in a "home and home" B2B spot last season and that was in Philly. Chicago beat the Sixers in double OT in that one and the Sixers will get their home court revenge here the way I see it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:10 ET - I know the Trail Blazers have a bad record but this is a great spot for them. They are at home off a home loss and they catch Golden State traveling off a hard-fought home win over the Nets last night. Yes, Portland has an ugly record and is on a losing streak but they are catching 5.5 points here and they are hosting a Warriors team that has lost 7 straight road games. I know the Blazers are off B2B ugly losses but this followed an 8-game stretch in which only 1 game was a loss by more than 6 points! They will be in this one all the way and, considering the Warriors 0-7 SU run in road games, an outright win is not of the question either! This line is round a 5.5 as of 7 hours before tip-off so we'll grab the generous points in this one! 10* PORTLAND (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks @ 9:10 ET - This total in the 233.5 range as of 9 hours before tipoff. Both teams rested and the Mavs off a loss and Blazers off 5 straight losses. In other words, these teams will be pushing hard for the win here plus Portland has revenge for losing the most recent meeting with the Mavericks. Dallas has allowed 117 ppg last 4 games but scored 124 ppg last 5 games. The Trail Blazers last 3 games have all totaled at least 236 points and this one should too. 10* OVER the total in Portland

NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER 234.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:10 ET - Another very high-scoring match-up likely between these teams Friday. They just met Wednesday and, not only did the game total 240, every single quarter saw at least 56 points scored. I love that type of consistency when you have an over. Now, the match-up shifts from Detroit to Philadelphia and should only help the over even more as Philly scores so well on their home floor. In terms of defensive intensity, the Pistons have proven all season they do not have much of that at all. As for the 76ers, it is hard to be intense on the defensive end when you know you are facing a team that has lost over 20 games in a row and you are nearly a 20 point favorite! From a statistical standpoint, the Sixers have averaged 129 points per game in their 10 home games against teams NOT named Boston! Certainly the Pistons are at the opposite end of the spectrum in comparison with the Celtics. Hence, my expectation that Philly is going to score in the 130s here and that means the Pistons (based on the spread) should score in the 110s in this one. That means we are looking at 240s here, if not 250s. 10* OVER 234.5 in Philadelphia

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - This line currently in the 9.5 to 9 range as of mid-day Thursday. Boston is the only team that has an undefeated home record this season but this sure looks like too many points! Cleveland is 2-0 the last 2 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of at least two games. The Cavaliers are 12-8 SU last 20 games but, only 3 of their last 20 games have been losses by a double digit margin! Boston is 8-3 SU last 11 games but only 3 of the 11 games were Celtics wins by a double digit margin. The Cavs did lost this same match-up when these teams met Tuesday but Boston outscored them by 20 points at the free throw point line. In other words, the Cavaliers actually won the game by 13 points if not including free throws and I feel we have excellent line value here in this revenge spot for the Cavs. Grab the points in this one. 10* CLEVELAND (+)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - Total in 233 range as of early gameday morning. The 76ers are off a beatdown of the Wizards and are proving they are ready to battle even though they are now in a stretch in which they face a number of weak foes consecutively. That includes facing a Pistons team that has lost 20 straight games! Detroit has allowed 124 ppg this season. The Sixers have averaged 131 ppg in their last 8 wins. With this pointspread around an 11, that would put this game at about 131-120 and certainly that sounds about right and that pushes this game into the 250 range for total points. The Sixers had one dominating win defensively in their last 6 games as that was when they beat the Lakers and held them to 94 points but in their other 6 games since Thanksgiving they have allowed 119 points. The 76ers have shown they are willing to play run and gun type games. Given all of the above I expect 250ish here but at least the 240s and that is why I feel we have excellent value with this total in the 233 range as of early game day morning. Pistons off a high-scoring loss against the Pacers and I expect a similar result here as they do tend to score a little better when at home. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Pick -115 vs Golden State Warriors @ 10:10 ET - The Suns will be without Kevin Durant here but look for others to pick up their game in his absence. Phoenix is so strong at home. The Warriors are not good on the road and have been struggling overall. Golden State have lost 10 of 14 games. Phoenix has lost 4 of 5 but were 11-6 this season prior to this. Also, the Suns are 3-0 the last 3 times they have been at home and entered a game off B2B losses. That is their situation here and I am taking advantage of the line value with Durant being out for this one. Look for Booker to have a huge game! 10* Phoenix Pick -115

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - These teams just met in Washington and the Sixers only won by 5 points and that was with Joel Embiid scoring 50 in that contest. I realize that the Wizards shot very well in that game, including from 3-point land. But now the Sixers are heavier favorites here - 11.5 to 12 points as of early gameday morning - and this is with Embiid questionable. Embiid did practice fully Sunday but why is he still on the report then? The fact is there is a chance that, facing a 3-18 team, the Sixers might try to give him rest here. Even if they do not rest him fully, there is a chance they will limit his minutes. Either way, the Sixers are likely in for at least a dogfight in which the Wizards keep this one to a single digit margin again. Washington has scorers and has some confidence given the way the last game played out. The Wizards off ugly loss at Brooklyn but this followed a 7-game stretch in which Washington had only 2 losses by more than 5 points! As for the 76ers, they only have 2 wins by more than 11 points in their last 15 games. I feel this is a nice value here as this is a game where Philly knows they have bigger fish to fry and I could see them being a bit flat or disinterested in this one. Even if they do manage to get up by 15 points or so the Wizards could easily backdoor the cover in the final stages too. Just too many points. 10* WASHINGTON (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET in Las Vegas, NV - There is some extra value baked into this line because the Lakers just absolutely destroyed the Pelicans on the scoreboard. However, LA shot 55% overall plus made 17 of 35 threes. New Orleans had a dreadful shooting game and was outscored by 30 from 3-point land as the Lakers made 10 more threes in the game. Keep in mind, the Lakers entered that game against NO in Vegas having gone just 4-7 in road games this season. The Pacers entered their game, a win over the Bucks, having gone 4-3 on the road this season and 2 of the 3 losses were at Boston and Philly. Of course the Celtics and 76ers are two of the best teams in the league. The point is that Indiana is arguably a better road team than the Lakers yet they are catching sizable points here against an over-rated LA team that is now over-valued after the hot-shooting win over the Pelicans. The Pacers are a very cohesive group. I like the team chemistry this roster has and I feel they will pull together to win this thing. Even if they fall short I look for it to be by one possession. This game could go right down to the wire but I am expecting the outright upset. We'll grab the 4.5 points. 10* INDIANA (+)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:10 ET - This line in the 7 or 7.5 range and this is a bargain in my opinion. Looks like Trae Young could miss due to illness or at least would not be 100% here. That is bad news for a Hawks team that already lost to the Sixers by double digits earlier this season and that game was in Atlanta! Also, Philadelphia won their most recent home game by 44 points over the Lakers and the 76ers are getting healthy again with Oubre having come back as well. The Sixers are off a road game at Washington and have another game versus the Wizards at home up next. That said, the Hawks are certainly getting the full focus and attention of the Sixers right now. When Philly is focused they can blow teams out. They know they let that game at DC be much closer against the Wiz then it should have been and they will respond huge here with a strong home game. The Sixers have 7 home wins this season and all were by double digit margin except the Celtics. The Hawks are definitely not at the level of the C's. In other words, another blowout home win is imminent here! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) 

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers in Las Vegas, NV @ 9 ET - The Lakers are such a popular team they tend to get some extra attention in the betting markets and that can put lines out of whack a bit. Lets not forget that this is a neutral site game and they are 4-7 SU away from home this season. Davis should play here but is managing some injuries. James is questionable but I am sure he will play but the point is that neither are likely to be 100% here. Couple that with the fact that the Pelicans have won 8 of 12 games plus they are the healthier team entering this match-up and they have revenge from losing 3 of 4 with LeBron and the Lakers last season. This line is now up to a 2.5 and I like the value with the underdog in this one given all of the above. 10* NEW ORLEANS (+)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - Normally I do not like to lay 9.5 or 10+ points in NBA games but this Sixers team is finally going to have everyone back and healthy on the floor for this one and they are off B2B losses and they are facing a 3-16 team. Not only that, this 3-16 Wizards team might be without Shamet and Poole. The latter is of particular importance but even Shamet gets some decent minutes. Poole is one of the top scorers. If either or both guys play they are unlikely to be 100% for this one. The Wizards have lost 11 of 12 games. The Sixers are strong when off B2B losses and are 9-2 SU the last 11 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. This team just not have long losing streaks and they are a much better and more cohesive club this season than last season. Of course a SU win is not the only key here as we also have a big spread to cover. The key with that is the Sixers have had 4 of last 5 wins come by 10+ points and the Wizards most recent loss was by 5 points. However, Washington has lost 6 straight road games and 5 of the 6 have been by more than a dozen points! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) 

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - The Bucks line is down to 4.5 in this one. After the line move especially there is value on Milwaukee in this one. The Bucks are 9-1 at home this season. 8 of their last 9 wins have been by 6 or more points. Of the Knicks last 6 losses, 5 have been by 5 or more points. Home court is a key factor here as the Bucks are 41-10 since the start of last season. The Knicks are solid on the road but certainly not at 80%+ like Milwaukee is at home. The Bucks have won 7 in a row over New York in their regular season meetings and I am grabbing the extra value here after the line move. The Bucks are without Connaughton and they are certainly better with him on the floor but are these teams really equal on a neutral floor (which is what this line is practically saying) when Bucks don't have him? I say no and I know the hosts want this tourney game and will have a strong crowd behind them. 10* MILWAUKEE (-)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Sacramento -4.5 vs Denver Nuggets @ 10:10 ET - Tough spot for Nuggets off the big win over Phoenix last night. B2B spot for Denver and, this is the 3rd time they have entered a game on a 4-game winning streak. Both times thus far they lost the 5th game each time. This is a solid Kings team they face here and Sacramento is angry off a loss. The Kings just lost to the Clippers but Sacramento was off a big win over the Warriors. Remember that Golden State had won each of the first two meetings this season plus knocked Sacramento out of the playoffs last season. Not only that, the Kings had to rally and practically won that game in miracle fashion. So it was a definite flat spot. They bounce back here and take advantage of catching the defending champs in a tough scheduling spot. 10* SACRAMENTO -4.5

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - This line is as high as 7 as of about 7 hours before tipoff. Embiid missed the morning shootaround so now speculation is rampant that he will miss tonight's game. Don't be surprised when Embiid plays tonight. I just do not see him missing this contest as the Sixers seek revenge here. They probably wanted to let him rest as much as possible this morning rather than force him for the shootaround. Either way this is a lot of points in a rivalry game and I like Philly here. Before the loss to the Pelicans, in which it was a surprise that Embiid did not play, the Sixers were 5-2 SU on the road this season and one of those losses was by just 1 point. We have great line value here with this line possibly now even going higher. You are going to see a huge effort here in this revenge spot from the Sixers no matter who is on the floor. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors -5 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 10:10 ET - Last night the Clippers caught the Kings off a dramatic huge-deficit come from behind victory the night before. LA took advantage and got the win at Sacramento but the situation was a good one for the Clips and a horrible one for the Kings plus LA hit 14 of 28 three-points in the game! They will not do that again tonight. Now it is the Clippers that are in a B2B situation and they are facing the very team (Warriors) that had blown a massive lead in a gut-wrenching loss at Sacramento! That said, Golden State is rested and ready and angry and this is a very reasonable line to lay here. I would not be surprised to see Leonard and Harden be less effective in the 2nd game of a B2B plus Powell got hurt last night and will not play here. Yes I am aware of the Chris Paul injury for the Warriors but the rest of the team in good shape entering this one and now Draymond Green is back from his suspension too. The Warriors are ready to go tonight and I am expecting them to have one of their best games of the season thus far in this one. They led by as many as 24 points in that loss at Sacramento and did lead by 17 at the half. GSW can not wait to get back on the floor. 10* GOLDEN STATE -5

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Pick'em @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - As of very early game day morning this line is showing some movement toward the Pelicans and the Sixers have gone from being a small favorite to right around a pick'em. The 76ers might even end up being the dog here but we are getting in on this now at the pick'em price. Yes, the 76ers have a revenge game on deck at Boston and are 1-1 this season when they have the Celtics on deck. However, the win was by 18 points while the loss was a game in which they were in the 2nd leg of a B2B with a Pacers team they had just beaten. This is a different situation. Philly going on the road off a blowout win over the Lakers and they know they do not want to make the same mistake they made against the Pacers. In other words, the fact this is a road game might even help the Sixers in the focus department and they know they can not overlook these Pelicans. New Orleans is at home and that is why this game is priced this way but they have lost B2B games and another reason for the pricing is that CJ McCollum could be back tonight. But if you are the Pelicans, wouldn't you rather wait and bring him back Friday against a bad Spurs team? Also, if he does play here, he would likely not be 100% plus he would be on a minutes restriction. The Sixers are 5-1 last 6 road games and a PERFECT 5-0 L5 road games when Embiid plays. He is playing tonight and the lone road game he missed was a loss he sat out of due to a b2b situation and playing with a sore hip. So this is a non-B2B and it is a road games streak I expect Philly to take to a PERFECT 6-0 RUN! 10* PHILADELPHIA pick'em 

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:40 ET - First off this line looks funny with Brooklyn only a 1.5 point favorite as of about 10 hours before tipoff. Why are the Nets such a small home favorite here? Glad you asked! The fact is Brooklyn is dealing with some injury concerns entering this one and that will impact both their effectiveness and team depth in this one. Also, they are off B2B wins here and not going to be as hungry as a Toronto team that is off a loss and has gone 5-0 the last 5 times this season in which they are off a defeat in which they scored 107 points or less. Look for this hungry Raptors to make it 6 in a row in this situation. Do not let the line fool you here! 10* TORONTO +1.5

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:10 ET - This line is around a 5.5 or 6 and that is saying the Sixers might only be about a bucket better than the Lakers on a neutral floor. I am just not buying that argument. The Lakers have won 3 straight road games but they lost 5 straight road games prior to that. Also, the Sixers have surprisingly lost each of their last 3 home games so you know they have this one circled on their calendar. This is particularly true because Philly has a couple road games on deck. Also, their most recent win was only by 4 points but this followed the first 9 of 10 Philly wins coming by a margin of at least 7 points and I feel certain this one will too! Lakers have some banged up players and I expect Davis and James to play but neither is likely to be 100% here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:40 ET - The Bulls are hungry for a win. They have revenge here against the Nets from a loss earlier this season too. Also, Chicago is catching Brooklyn in the 2nd night of a B2B and off a revenge win over the own. The Nets had revenge against Miami and they got it. Don't be surprised if, based on scheduling dynamics and situational advantage, the Bulls are the more aggressive and fresh team here. I know Caruso and LaVine are each listed as questionable for this one but I expect them to play. Either way, I like the underdog Bulls here in this one and will grab the points, currently around a 4 or 4.5 as of mid-day Sunday. 10* CHICAGO (+) 

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -115 @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 5:10 ET - The Sixers off B2B losses including a bad one at Minnesota in which Embiid missed because it was a back to back and he needed to rest his hip. However, he is expected back here and we get nice value because the Sixers are on the road and facing a tough team. I do respect this Thunder team and they are playing solid basketball. However, the Sixers rarely get on losing streaks and I expect them to put a stop to this one here. Last season and into this season they have been very strong when entering a game off B2B losses or 3 losses in a row (rare) and they have not lost 4 straight last season or this season. I like the Sixers team chemistry this season and they will respond here tonight. The road team won both meetings between these teams last season and that included the Thunder winning the most recent game which was at Philly. So the Sixers can also get some payback in this one tonight. The Thunder are tied with Minnesota at the top of the NW Division and they have the Wolves on deck so this is also a lookahead spot for OKC. The Thunder are 6-1 on the road this season but 5-3 at home. Sixers bounce back here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 8:10 ET - As of about 8 hours before tipoff this line is in the 7.5 range and the Pacers are hurting with some injuries including top scorer Haliburton. Even if he plays, he is dealing with right wrist pain. That will not help in the scoring department. That said, the Pacers have to score a ton to win games because this team just not play defense. There is a reason this line is coming down even though we are talking about a Detroit team (2-13) that has the worst record in the league. Pacers allowing 126.4 ppg and this is the worst mark in the league. If you look at Indiana's last 6 games, none were Pacers wins by more than 6 points and they have gone just 3-3 in those games. There is a reason some action is coming in on a team that has lost 12 straight games, 5 of the last 7 defeats have been by a single digit margin. Look for another very tight game here as the Pistons are very hungry for a win and will take advantage of shoddy defensive play of the Pacers. 10* DETROIT (+)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:10 ET - Current line is in the -4.5 range and I expect a solid home win. Philly had 4 guys score in double digits in last night's OT loss at home to Cleveland. Those 4 players were also the big 4 in terms of minutes played last night as they all topped 40 minutes! This is a really tough spot here for Philly as they are in a B2B while Minny has some rest and the Timberwolves have been playing so well this season. Also, the Sixers have now lost 3 of 5 and certainly are not as a strong of a team as they were early this season before Oubre got hurt. Yes they are still a top team but now short-handed already plus playing the 2nd night of a B2B and the Wolves are 6-0 at home this season and most have been blowout wins and the one that wasn't was still a 5-pt win in OT here. I look for the Timberwolves to take advantage of the situation and roll the Sixers here. 10* MINNESOTA (-)

NBA 10* Top Play Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - This line is in the 7.5 range as of early gameday morning. The Cavaliers are a solid team that has won 3 straight games so this line makes sense. However, Cleveland is going to again be without leading scorer Donovan Mitchell here. Also, the Cavaliers could be without Caris LeVert again. If he does play, LeVert (knee) will not be 100% most likely and, keep in mind, he is also one of the Cavs top scorers. This the Sixers only home game in about a 2-week stretch so they want to make it count! Philly has been so strong and they were encouraged by having Oubre back at practice yesterday. His return is likely still weeks away but the team chemistry in Philly right now is as high as it has been in years so they definitely were also encouraged by having him back at practice Monday! The Sixers are 10-2 last dozen games and 8 of last 9 wins by at least 8 points! In fact, the average margin of victory in Philly's wins this season is 13.4 ppg so I do not expect the spread to be an issue here. 4 of the Cavs last 5 losses by at least 8 points and the Sixers are so strong and confident so far this season and this is particularly true at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Miami Heat -1.5 or money line -115/-120 @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:10 ET - Right now, as of early gameday morning, the dominant line on this one is -1.5 but some books even have -1.5 -112 for example which is why I most definitely would recommend the money line for those of you with access to it. The money line is in the -115/-120 range so this is one of those rare situations where a money line does make sense even in a spread sport. The fact is the Heat should bounce back here. They have a chance at right back revenge here as they just lost at Chicago and now get a second chance against the Bulls after blowing a 21-point lead against them. They even still led that game by 9 with under 7 minutes to go in the game but they went on to lose the game by 5. The Heat had won 7 straight games before that loss and the Bulls were 4-9 on the season before that win! Even still without Herro, this Miami team just has too much for the Bulls in this one given the situation. Nice chance at right back revenge for the stronger team and the Heat should roll. 10* MIAMI (-)

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 3:10 ET - The Nets are just 3-4 last 7 games and a big key with that is 2 of their 3 wins came against teams that are now a combined 6-17 this season. Against tougher teams the Nets continue to lose and Brooklyn also hurting without leading scorer Cam Thomas. If you look at this Brooklyn roster you can see it is no wonder why they tend to struggle against top teams. Of course the Nets would like revenge for last season's playoff ouster at the hands of the Sixers but they don't have the roster to do it right now in my opinion. Also, keep in mind, Philly's only losses this season came against a strong Bucks team by 1 point in Milwaukee and they lost both ends of a B2B. But that B2B featured a front-end lookahead with a tough Celtics team the very next night. The point is, the way Philly is playing right now, even without Oubre a bit longer, they just do not lose to lower-tier teams. They will get the big win here in my opinion and we have a very manageable line to work with. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Pick'em @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers are off B2B losses. The last 10 times, including post-season, that the Sixers have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games, they have won the next game 8 of 10 times! They will bounce back big here after losing a tight one to Indiana and then struggling versus the Celtics in a 10-point loss. The Hawks are not the Celtics! Philly should bounce back here against an Atlanta team that is 6-5 this season but whose last 4 wins are against teams that are a combined 15-30 this season. The Hawks were in the post-season last year but lost in the first round to Boston and that included losing their last two home games of that series. They enter this one having lost each of their last two home games as well. More of the same here as Embiid should play again even though listed as questionable. Keep in mind that game against the Celtics was 2nd of a B2B and he played. Now, with some rest, he should be even stronger here. 10* PHILADELPHIA pick'em

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The current line on this one is around a 3.5 and the Heat are still without Tyler Herro. The game he got hurt in was a game that he only played 8 minutes in. So including that game, Miami has won 4 straight games without him. However, the key here is that 3 of those teams were really bad and are struggling overall this season. In fact, the combined record of all 4 teams is 14-29. Now the Heat face a red hot Nets team that already beat the Heat at Miami this season and that was when Herro was the leading scorer for Miami with 30 points and now he is not even playing tonight. I understand the Heat being favored here as they are at home and have won 6 straight. However, Brooklyn has won 6 of 9 and the only 3 losses were to Boston (twice) and Milwaukee. Of course the Celtics and Bucks are two of the best teams in the league. The Heat, without Herro, are not at that level. The road team gets it done here. 10* BROOKLYN + points

NBA Wednesday UNDER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - This total seems inflated because of the Sixers coming off B2B shootouts with the Pacers. Those inflated point totals had a lot to do with the style Indiana plays. Now Philly takes on a big-time division rival and it is a team known for lower-scoring games and these Celtics to play solid defense. The first match-up between these teams this season totaled 209 points and more of the same likely here in another tight battle. This total is in the 226.5 point range as of mid-morning on gameday and this is offering excellent value here. The Celtics are allowing only 104.6 ppg this season (not including OT points) and they are a small favorite in this match-up. That puts this game right around the 106-103 score we saw in the first one with the Celtics taking the rematch. Regardless who does prevail in this one I am expecting a point total very similar to that. The Sixers team hurt by the possible absence of Batum again and already they are missing Oubre after he broke a rib in an off-court accident recently. This game will be more of a grinder than many are anticipating. UNDER the total in Philadelphia

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - Embiid may not play here as he has a sore left hip. To put that on the injury report in a different way, Embiid may rest here because the Sixers have another huge game with the rival Celtics on deck for tomorrow night! In all seriousness that is a real factor here and it would not surprise me if this is the Sixers excuse to end up holding Embiid out of this one. Even if he does play I expect Philly to rest some guys if they do have a sizable lead late. But the fact is this Pacers team can hang around in this one and possibly even steal an upset win. The Sixers can not help but to think about the huge showdown with the Celtics on deck. Yes they finally beat them when these teams met last week but that does not change importance of "round two" of their season series. Also, though Philly won by 11 in the game versus Indiana Sunday, that was with Maxey scoring 50 points and with the team overall making 14 three pointers! I just do not see those types of numbers again and expect a tight battle here in this one. The Pacers have a strong shot at revenge here but we'll grab the points being offered for added insurance. The current line on this one as of early gameday morning is +5.5 points. 10* INDIANA + points

NBA Monday 10* Top Play New York Knicks + @ Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - This is a great set-up. The Celtics have a big revenge game with the 76ers on deck. Conversely, the Knicks have revenge on their minds right here, right now as they lost their season opener at home to Boston despite having an edge in field goal attempts of 20 more in that game! Not only that, the Knicks enter this game off B2B high-scoring performances including a season high in shooting efficiency in their most recent win. Yes, Boston is solid defensively and they are the better overall team in this match-up as they are one of the best teams in the league. However, the Knicks are a solid club and they have a big motivational edge here and could catch the Celtics thinking ahead to the rematch with Philly. I'll gladly grab the generous points here which is in the +9 range as of early game day morning. 10* NEW YORK KNICKS + points 

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 236.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers @ 6:10 ET - I am aware that Oubre is out for Philly but this red hot Sixers team will not miss a beat. Also, Indiana has been on fire so the points will be flowing here because the Pacers view defense as an afterthought. The run and gun style will be in full effect in this game throughout as the Sixers are particularly comfortable playing this style when at home. The Pacers have won 3 straight and 4 of 5 games and have scored an average of 131 points in these 5 games. However, Indiana also has allowed an average of 125 points last 6 games! The Sixers are averaging 121 ppg when at home. Indiana off a high-scoring game with Milwaukee and struggled to stop them but prevailed. The Sixers also allowed 118 to the Bucks in a 1-point loss. The point is that each team getting into the 120s is certainly not too much to ask here. Over is the play in this one. 10* OVER 236.5 in Philadelphia

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:40 ET - This is a revenge game for the Warriors as they lost at Cleveland less than a week ago. They had a horrible shooting night from inside the arc in that game and I like the situation here too as the Cavaliers are 1-5 SU, other than the win over GS, ever since they won on opening night. In other words, they have struggled badly and now they face a revenge-minded Warriors team off a loss after a 6-1 SU stretch in which the only loss was the defeat to the Cavs. As you can see, value here with the home team at this very manageable number currently in the -4 range. 10* GOLDEN STATE (-)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - This total in the 221.5 range and should prove to be too low. The Sixers off the big win over the Celtics will leave them a bit flat on defense here. This should be a free-flowing game as a results and the Pistons have been giving up plenty of points this season. So this total should prove to be too low. Detroit has allowed at least 120 in 4 straight games and 5 of last 6. That said, if they to do that again here and the odds makers are right about this line, it means this game ends in at least the 120-112 range as Detroit is an 8-point dog here. I do look for a rather tight game with Sixers willing to play a free-flowing game too as they are just so happy that they beat the nemesis Celtics. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:10 ET - This total is so big in the 242 range and it must be an easy under setting up here, right? Especially when you consider this is a divisional game. However, if last season was any indication, this total is still not nearly high enough. These teams met 4 times last season and one was in the 250s, one in 260s, one in 270s, one in 280s! Must have been  a lot of overtime periods, right? No, there were none! Adding to the value here in my opinion is the B2B because maybe a typical lackadaisical attitude on defense here after giving some effort last night. In terms of minutes, the Pacers had a blowout win so that helped get guys off the floor early. The Bucks Giannis was out early due to an ejection so he has fresh legs. Additionally, Middleton rested yesterday so he'll be ready to go for Milwaukee. All signs point to a lot of points here and this numbers is big for a reason as the final scores last season indicate. 10* OVER the total in Indiana

Wednesday NBA 10* Top Philadelphia 76ers + vs Boston Celtics @ 7:10 ET - I know White is expected back for the Celtics tonight but he was away on paternity leave so how effective will he be here? Could he be distracted? Boston has a great team of course and they have owned the Sixers in recent seasons but there is something different about this Philly team this season and the chemistry they have as they have rallied around the entire Harden situation and are happy he is now with the Clippers. As a home dog, this is is a great spot to grab a team that has rattled off 5 straight wins and remember that Boston is still working some guys into their rotation early this season. As evidenced by the loss at Minnesota, this is still a process for the Celtics. The 76ers get revenge here for last spring's playoff ouster at the hands of their long-time rivals. This is a big game and it sure looks like the Sixers are finally ready to show up and knock off the C's. Grab the points with home dog here. Currently the dominant line is +2 but there is some +2.5 out there as of mid-morning gameday. 10* PHILADELPHIA +

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - This line is right around an 11 as of early gameday morning and I am not a huge fan of laying big points in the NBA but this 76ers team is rolling right now and has excellent team chemistry now that Harden is gone. Also, in that trade the Sixers picked up a few players and tonight Batum will make his debut while Covington already is back and contributed in the win over the Suns. Keep in mind Covington is a former Sixer that had some big seasons and he is happy to be back here. He and Batum will be role players that help this team with depth. Speaking of depth, we are only 5 games into the season but this is still a pretty amazing feat. The Sixers have 4 guys (Embiid, Maxey, Oubre, Harris) right now averaging at least 20 points per game! How amazing is that? Glad you asked! This is an NBA record. In NBA history there has never been a team with 4 guys still averaging 20+ points per game by the time they are 5 games into a new season. This is just not normal but Philly has a new free-flowing offense and everyone is contributing and they even got to rest Embiid for the entire 4th quarter against the Suns in that 12 point win. Speaking of big wins, the Sixers 4 wins have come by an average of 15.5 ppg. The 76ers have won 4 straight after a 1-point loss at Milwaukee to open the season. The Wizards 4 losses have come by an average of 14.5 ppg. I know the Sixers have the Celtics on deck but that game is not until Wednesday and Philly is enjoying a long homestand and that game is at home too. They will be ready to stay hot at home and dominate this Wizards team that just does not have the depth to keep up with Philly for 4 quarters. The Sixers pull away as this game goes on. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

Saturday NBA Utah Jazz +8.5 @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:10 ET - Minnesota off a huge win they were waiting all summer for as they just beat the Nuggets. Not only is Denver the defending NBA champs and not only were they off to a hot start again this season, the Nuggets knocked the Wolves out of the playoffs last season. So that was a huge revenge win for the T-wolves and now they face a letdown spot here. The Jazz will not be in a good mood either as they had won their last 2 home games and now just lost most recent game by only a bucket. I am not saying they get the outright win here but they are motivated and will be hungry tonight and they stay within this inflated team that could get caught a bit flat-footed off the big win over the Nuggets. UTAH +8.5

NBA Friday Memphis Grizzlies (-) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 10:10 ET - The line as of early gameday morning is -2.5 but also as low as -135 on the money line for those of you with access to that. The key factor here is an 0-5 Memphis team is, of course, favored on the road over Portland for a reason. Do not let the line fool you. 3 of the 5 teams the Grizzlies have lost to have a combined record of 12-2 this season. Also they were just in nearby Utah. Conversely, the Blazers have just come back from a long road trip to the East Coast and they are off B2B wins after starting the season 0-3. So the fact is the winless Grizzlies will prove to be the hungrier team here and they finally get into the win column and should take this by 3 or more for sure. Looking at all 10 of the games these teams have been in this season none have been decided by less than 5 points. Consider the money line for maximum security though here but look for the big road win. MEMPHIS (-) 

NBA Thursday 10* OVER 215.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:10 ET - Both teams are off blowout wins. A lot of times when a team is off an easy win you will see a let-up in defensive intensity in the next game. So here you have a case where both teams are off easy wins and are fully confident they can just run and gun their way to another win in the very next game. Philly, after all, has a right to feel that way with having scored an average of 119 ppg so far and coming off B2B wins and their only loss was by a single point. However, one of those wins was at Toronto and now the Raptors will be out for revenge. Toronto will push hard for some payback here and I expect them build off the big win over the Bucks. However, the Raptors also will continue to struggle to stop a Sixers team that dominated them with points in the paint in the first meeting. In terms of outside shooting, the Raptors shot well from 3-point land in the first meeting plus were scoring well from downtown in the big win over Milwaukee last night. That said, confidence will be high for the Raptors shooters from beyond the arc and I look for an entertaining affair in this one. The total is understandably low based on Toronto's results prior to the high-scoring win over the Bucks. However, this one is all about the situation and the Sixers will want to push the pace too because they are at home and, of course, well aware of the fact that the Raptors are in a B2B spot. 10* OVER 215.5 in Philadelphia

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 215.5 or 216 in Detroit Pistons vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7 ET - I like playing the "opposite game" after an unusual result and, in this case, Portland is off a very low-scoring win that featured an ultra low-scoring fourth quarter. That has helped keep some value here and I also like the fact we could see a let-up in defensive intensity after a rare slugfest. The Blazers had allowed an average of 117 points per game in their first 3 games. As for Detroit, they have allowed 107 points per game this season. I understand the low total here because the Trail Blazers have not scored very well this season but off their first win and feeling more confident they may be more inclined to pick up the pace some now in this one. As for Detroit, they are playing just their 2nd home game and they scored 118 points in the first one and that was a win. The Pistons had back to back wins before the loss to the Thunder on the road and they scored an average of 114 in their last 3 games. We should see this one get well into the 220s given all of the above and I will take advantage of the lower total posted on this game. Again, I understand the lower number from the odds makers as the markets demand it in this case but it is the situational perspective here that dictates the true value in this spot. 10* OVER 215.5 or 216 in Detroit

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 10:40 ET - The Magic off a tough loss to the Lakers last night but now play on the same floor tonight. Orlando had 95 shots from the field compared to just 79 for LA but they were done in by poor shooting. They will be better here tonight and all I can say about the Clippers getting Harden from the Sixers is two words: good luck! I think he will be more of a problem than a solution here in LA plus the Clips lost some bench minutes in the process with some of those guys now on the way to Philly in the trade. So tonight may not be the Clippers best effort. I also like the fact they are off a 40 point win while the Magic are off a tight loss. Look for Orlando to be very hungry team and this is one of those teams that is young but they tend to work hard at each end of the floor and I believe they will hang around in this one and eventually might even pull of the upset win late. After all, there is some extra hunger when you know you should have beat a team but you did not. That is the case here with the Magic after the tight loss to the Lakers. I am sure they will make up for that here. 10* ORLANDO (+) 

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 or -6 vs Detroit Pistons @ 8:10 ET - The Thunder just got completely embarrassed at home yesterday and that was their home opener. However, OKC had a really tough shooting night while the Nuggets were red hot from the field. Oklahoma City is sure to bounce back tonight. Remember that the Thunder are a young and up-and-coming team and are expected to do well this season. The Pistons are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league. I know Detroit is 2-1 but they beat some teams also projected to not do well this season. This is going to be the Pistons toughest test yet as they face an angry Thunder team ready to immediately respond at home. Denver shot 60% last night and 41% from three point land while OKC shot just 41% from the field and 19% from beyond the arc in an ugly game. It was a sell-out game at home against the defending champs and a home opener no-less and the Thunder got embarrassed. That is the kind of game a decent team will respond to. OKC is more than decent. They are talented and can make a move up the standings this season. They had won both games before the loss to the Champs. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 or -6 

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 217.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:40 ET - Philly is in a B2B but they are riding high on positive energy and emotion here. Not only did they get a big road win at Toronto last night, this is their home opener now tonight. However, I do not like laying big points in the NBA and I think the best way to play this game is the over. The 76ers are going to be aggressive tonight and should score plenty of points throughout in an electric atmosphere for their season opener. However, the Blazers (even without Simons) could surprise here. I am expecting Portland to be very competitive here with a run and gun effort as they are still looking for their first win of the season plus Sharpe played well in place of Simons in his first start this season after the Simons injury. The Blazers have some solid young talent and a respected head coach that knows how to utilize it. They will not be able to get a lot of stops of a Sixers team that will be "feeling it" at home in this one but Portland will take advantage of some possibly lax defense after the Sixers had to put a big effort into holding off the Raptors late in yesterday's game. Value with the line move here too as this total was in the low 220s. We'll step in and take advantage. 10* OVER 217.5 in Philadelphia

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:40 ET - It is one thing to lose in OT but it is another thing to lose that game when you led by 17 points in the 4th quarter with under 5 minutes to go! Indeed, the loss for the Raptors last night at Chicago is one that falls into the gut-wrenching category and those are the toughest to bounce back from. Toronto was still up by 7 with under a minute and a half to go in regulation. Then, in OT, the Raptors were up by 4 with about 30 seconds to go! The Bulls then got a layup and later a 3-pointer with 2 seconds left and got the 1-point win. Look for Toronto to struggle to bounce back from this and they are facing a rested 76ers team that came up just 1 point short at Milwaukee in the first game. The Bucks were a tougher opponent for Philly than either of the opponents Toronto has faced so far this season. This further adds to the value here. Though I am not nuts about laying points in the NBA this is a manageable number given the situation and I expect the Sixers to continue to work hard under a new head coach and plus they are motivated by the Harden situation looking to prove they can do all the need to without him. 10* PHILADELPHIA -3.5

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings -2.5 vs  Golden State Warriors @ 10:10 ET - The Warriors were one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season. Granted this is not much of a road trip for them but facts are facts. Golden State has really struggled to win in other team's buildings. They did not shoot well at all versus Phoenix from 3-point land in the season opener and that was at home. Now they are in an enemy's building and it is an enemy that does not like them at all and this nearby rival is likely to get a solid home win here as the Warriors will again be without Draymond Green for this one. This impacts their defense and rebounding and the Kings off a big win in their season opener and rolling with confidence entering this one. 10* SACRAMENTO -2.5

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:30 ET - This line is as high as a 6.5 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. I feel we have excellent underdog line value here. All you hear about the Sixers these days is the Harden situation. You here very little about the fact this team has plenty of other talent plus has added some key personnel pieces that fit well into the other big key here that few are talking about. Nick Nurse is going to end up doing a great job in Philly. He will get more out of these players and these guys, sans Harden, are a hungry group that is a great mix of young talent and veteran leadership. I am not saying they are the best team in the east but they are one of the top ones and in this match-up with the Bucks they have the coaching edge plus we have about a half-dozen points to work with. Couple that with the hungry underdog mentality and the fact that Milwaukee could have some growing pains early this season in terms of Lillard and Giannis looking to figure out how to develop synergy on the floor together - it could be choppy early in Milwaukee. The Sixers have a great shot at the outright upset and when I see a game like this plus am getting a half-dozen points to work with, I am on it! 10* PHILADELPHIA +

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks -4 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:40 ET - Of course there is a ton of hype about the Spurs and their new big man Victor Wembanyama but he is a rookie and will have some growing pains. Additionally, Spurs coach Popovich has had a remarkable career and I have plenty of respect for him but he should have hung it up a few years ago. San Antonio will again struggle this season and not get out of the 20s in win total this season. Conversely, Dallas off  a disappointing campaign but had been flying quite high prior to this and I am expecting a big bounce back year for them. They look positively re-tooled and I like this Mavs team to be very hungry early this season after the disappointment of the way last season ended. That said, covering a small number on the road against a hated division rival set for another down campaign should not be a problem. We lay it here with plenty of confidence and I look for the the Mavericks to pull away as the game goes on. The Spurs may ride some early emotion but that will take them only so far here as reality sets in as the game goes on. 10* DALLAS -4

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - The line is as high as +1.5 on the Suns here but some books even have the Suns as a 1 point favorite in this one as of early gameday morning. Essentially this line is in the pick'em range. This sets up perfectly for me as a contrarian play and I love contrarian plays in the NBA. Last season Golden State was 33-8 at home while the Suns were 17-24 on the road. You think the odds makers are unaware of this home/road dichotomy? Of course not. That said, this line has been set this way with good reason and Phoenix is projected to be the stronger team this season and I am going to ride them right away here in Game 1 of the new season as they get the road win against this over-rated Warriors bunch. Look for the absence of Draymond Green to hurt Golden State as they sure could use his defense in a match-up like this. 10* PHOENIX (+)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER 208.5 in Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - The Heat, not including OT points, have averaged 109 points on the road in this post-season. The Nuggets are favored by 9 here so if Miami hits their road average and the spread is set correctly, Denver scores 118 to 109. That score would crush this total by nearly 20 points. Now I am not saying we'll see exactly that of course but I am saying we have some value with this low total because this series has seen the Heat held to 95 points or less in 3 of 4 games. However, do note that the last 10 times Miami has entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games, they have scored - ironically - an average of 109 points also! So getting past the century mark is not asking too much here. Miami will be aggressive and do everything they can to keep their championship hopes alive no matter how slim they now are. That said, the Heat are going to have to be aggressive offensively because you know the Nuggets will be aggressive in looking to close out this series on their home floor. Denver so dangerous and particularly at home! The Nuggets have scored 113.5 points per game at home in the post-season but also lost to the Heat here in Game 2. The hosts will be more aggressive offensively and the situational metrics are all pointing to the over. 10* OVER 208.5 in Denver

NBA Friday Miami Heat Money Line +140 vs Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently +3.5 is out there) but I am going with the +140 on the money line here. Note that Miami saw their starting backcourt of Vincent and Strus combine for 3 of 17 from the field Wednesday. The Heat also got obliterated on the glass by a 58 to 33 margin as Denver dominated the rebounding department. Give these insane numbers you would think Denver won the game by 30 but actually Miami lost the game by 15. As I mentioned in a prior write-up (and I had Miami in Game 2 and Denver in Game 3), when I look at this series I feel certain that the Nuggets can win at Miami and the Heat can win at Denver. The Heat will respond here in Game 4 off the home loss and are very well coached (admittedly Denver is too) and I could see the Nuggets getting caught feeling a little too good about themselves after the way Game 3 went. In further support of this pick and in terms of taking the money line rather than the points, note that the Heat are 6-0 SU (STRAIGHT UP) the last 6 times they have entered a home game off a standalone loss. In other words when AT HOME and coming off a loss but NOT on a losing streak of any kind - just a standalone loss - Miami has been PERFECT the last 6 times including 3-0 in this post-season in this situation! Take the Heat on the money line as this streak reaches 7 in a row! MIAMI +140

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets -2 or -2.5 @ Miami @ 8:30 ET - The Nuggets are 3-0 SU the last 3 times they have entered a game off a loss by 6 or less points. Given that straight up (SU) trend as well as the fact the line here is only 2 or 2.5, I do not have any hesitation in laying the points in this bounce back spot for Denver. Note that they outrebounded the Heat in the Game 2 loss. They also led the game by 8 points entering the 4th quarter. The fact the Nuggets fell short as a result of getting outplayed in that 4th quarter on their home floor will only strengthen their resolve here. The Nuggets were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc in that game and it was the difference maker. The fact the Heat knocked down about 50 percent of threes and hit 17 of them while Denver hit 11 means that the final score would have been Nuggets by 15 if you take the threes out of the equation. Of course you can not do that and I had the Heat in Game 2 on the MONEY LINE as an outright +300 winner and expected them to respond big Sunday. However, I now expect Denver to make adjustments too and they respond here and get the road win. Note that Denver is 7-0 SU when they allow 100 or more points in their prior game. Nuggets D up here and the big road win by 3 or more. 10* DENVER -2 or -2.5

NBA Sunday Miami Heat Money Line +300 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently +8.5 is out there) but I am going with the +300 on the money line here. Note that Miami saw Martin, Strus and Robinson combine for 2 of 23 from the field Thursday. The Heat also had only 2 free throw attempts in the game. Miami also saw Jimmy Butler score just 13 points. All of these insane numbers and yet the Heat still won the game. Wait, you are telling me Denver won and not Miami? Well technically you are 100% correct but the fact is Miami won the game from the field despite those numbers above. Indeed the Nuggets scored 14 more points than the Heat from the free throw line. This means that Miami (104-93 losers in Game 1) actually won the game by 3 points from the field. When I look at this series I feel certain that the Nuggets can win at Miami and the Heat can win at Denver. The Heat will respond here and are very well coached (admittedly Denver is too) and I could see the Nuggets getting caught feeling a little too good about themselves after the way Game 1 went. In further support of this pick and in terms of having the guts to take a +300 money line, note that the Heat are 9-0 SU (STRAIGHT UP) the last 9 times they have entered a game off a loss by a margin of a dozen or less points. The points are a generous offer here for sure but we won't need them so I am going for a triple your money wager here. Take the Heat on the money line as this streak reaches 10 in a row! MIAMI +300

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +9 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - I really like both these teams. Guys who follow me closely know I rode both the Nuggets and Heat heavily in the conference finals. That said, I got the match-up I wanted and I feel we have a solid competitive balance here. Certainly the Nuggets are the stronger overall team and deserve this heavy line generally speaking but Miami is a very good team. Also, this is not a normal situation here either. Rest is a good thing but too much rest can lead to rust. That is an issue here for Denver. There already is a normal automatic layoff between the conference finals and the NBA finals. That said, the fact the Heat / Celtics series went 7 games did not necessarily hurt them entering this series. It could hurt them if this series goes deep but early on it actually is an advantage that Miami could be more game ready here considering the fact that the Nuggets have not played since Monday. No not the Monday of THIS week but the Monday of LAST week. So a weak and a half later Denver is taking the floor again finally for a real game. Nothing compares to real game action no matter how much you practice. So the point is Denver is likely rusty enough that the Heat can take advantage early on in this one. I still think Nuggets find a way to win this one but I do not think they win this by double digits. Grab the big points here. MIAMI +9

NBA Monday Miami Heat Money Line +250 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently some +7.5 is out there) but I am going with the +250 on the money line here. First off, Boston is trying to do something that has never been done in terms of coming all the way back from down 3-0 in an NBA series to win 4 straight and take the series. Secondly, the Heat are so well-coached and have a huge experience edge with Spoelstra over Mazzulla as I have mentioned in my prior write-ups. Thirdly and, for me, a huge key here is a look inside that Game 6 boxscore in the thriller that Boston won by just a single point on a late tap-in. Note that the Big 3 of Boston - Brown, Smart, Tatum - totaled 78 points and shot a respectable 24 of 53 from the field. Conversely, the Big 3 of Miami - Butler, Adebayo, Vincent - totaled only 50 on disastrous 15 of 55 shooting from the field. Look at those numbers again. Look at the final score again. I am telling you straight up that I will actually be SHOCKED, given all of the above, if the Heat do NOT pull off what the public would perceive as a SHOCKER and win this game OUTRIGHT! Seriously, I am not exaggerating here. Given the number above the Heat should have lost by at least 20 points in that last game and they did not as they were 0.1 seconds from an outright win. That says a lot. I am confident in Spoelstra and in Butler and the fact they will bounce back here after the horrible shooting in Game 6. Grab the points if you want but my play is on the outright money line winner. MIAMI +250

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I just can not see Gabe Vincent missing this game. The Heat know a win tonight is critical. Vincent was able to take Game 5 off because of the situation but now in Game 6, and considering the injury is not major, I feel strongly that he will be back. Even if he is not, I look for Jimmy Butler to have a much better game on his home floor. He and all of the Heat players should bounce back. They have been so strong this year when at home and off a loss. Miami is 17-4 the last 21 times they have entered a home game coming off a loss. This includes a perfect 8-0 the last 8 times! This is a SU record but, of course, any SU win tonight is also an ATS win for the Heat as they are catching 3 points here. So the system fits and we will not hesitate to back it. Also, Boston is 0-6 the last 6 times they have entered a road game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. So this is a double perfect spot as both these team trends are also perfect in this post-season. Indeed I am expecting the outright win here but I will grab the points just in case the Heat fall just short but I am looking for a major response here at home and the long-term numbers in this situation certainly support that. MIAMI +3

NBA Thursday Miami Heat +8.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I did have Boston in Game 4 and expected Celtic pride to rise up and avoid the sweep. However, as I mentioned in that write-up I sill expect Miami to end up winning this series. Even if that does not happen, I do expect them to stay inside this inflated number. The Heat are up 3-1 in this series. Now, because Boston finally got a win but is down 3-1 and returning home and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to blowout Miami in Game 5? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat have been fantastic in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 177th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. I know Boston won Game 4 by 15 in Miami but the Celtics outscored the Heat by 30 points from 3-point land as they were hot from downtown while Miami struggled to hit from deep. I did like the fact that the Heat resumed being the stronger rebounding team in Game 4 and I expect more of the same here. Miami has only had one losing streak (3 games) since early March as when they have entered a game off a standalone loss they have won the next game 8 of 9 times including all 3 times in this post-season. Even if they do not win outright here, look for them to get at least th cover and yes I am aware of the questionable status of guard Gabe Vincent but this team has battled through injuries all post-season. MIAMI +8.5

NBA Tuesday Boston Celtics +2 @ Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - Even though I have been on Miami throughout this series and do expect them to win the series eventually. I don't see that happening tonight. The Celtics actually had 98 field goal attempts compared to 81 for the Heat in Game 3 on Sunday. Boston was done in by poor shooting and the fact that Miami shot lights out. That said, the value is with the Celtics here in desperation mode. The Heat have the coaching edge big-time in this match-up but Boston has a very talented cast and they can will this team to victory if they want it bad enough. I think this Celtics team absolutely does want to win this one for pride and to get one more home in at least as this would send the series back to Boston for Game 5. Note that the Celtics made just 26% of threes Sunday while the Heat knocked down 54%. That was your game right there. Rebounds were 57 to 35 in favor of Boston plus a crazy 21 to 1 edge for the Celtics in terms of offensive rebounds. So some of the hustle stats were there for the C's Sunday and odds in terms of regression to the mean certainly would suggest that Miami regresses in Game 4 while the Celtics improve from the floor in Game 4. BOSTON +2

NBA Monday Denver Nuggets +3.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - All the pressure on the Lakers here. Nuggets would be okay if there was a game 5 in Denver. LA will not see a Game 5 unless they win tonight. Lakers have not handled the pressure well so far in this series and I like the fact that Nuggets won Game 3 despite Jokic scoring "only" 24 points. This says a lot about how strong this Denver team is and they also got outrebounded in that game. So when you combine all those factors with the fact we can get 3.5 points here with a Nuggets team that has won 5 straight games and 11 of 14 in this post-season, you have value on your side with this one. The Lakers have lost 3 straight of course and are just 7-7 last 14 games in this post-season. Also one of their round two wins came by just 3 points and one of their round one wins came in OT. We have a lot of value here in a game the Nuggets could win outright but also could cash for us even with a SU loss as this could be a tight finish. Keep in mind, the Lakers biggest lead in Game 3 here in LA was 2 points while the Nuggets led by as many as 14. The visitors just have too much for the hosts here. DENVER +3.5

NBA Sunday Miami Heat +3.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Heat are up 2-0 in this series. Now, because Boston is down 0-2 and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to go down to Miami and turn all this around in one game? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat are 5-0 at home in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 175th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. Considering all of the above factors I do like the Heat to go up 3-0 in this series but the money line is only in the +135 range and, in a case like this, considering I can get 3.5 points with the underdog, I am going to side with the points rather than the money line in case Miami falls just short. But look for the Heat to get the job done yet again as they win their 8th straight home dating back to a loss in way back in late March. MIAMI +3.5

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +6 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Much is being made of the Lakers returning home and how they are now going to respond and that everything will be okay in La-La Land. I beg to differ! The most recent home game for the Lakers saw them allow 103 field goal attempts (they had just 75) in the 122-101 game that eliminated the Warriors from the post-season. Golden State lost that game for one key reason and that was simply horrible shooting overall including from 3-point land. The home game before that saw the Lakers go 20 of 20 from the line while the Warriors had just 9 free throw attempts. Even with that the Lakers won the game by just 3 points. That said, and with knowledge the free throw disparity between the Nuggets and Lakers will NOT be the same here (Lakers 62 to 26 edge in FT attempts in last 2 home games of series with GSW). Denver has looked very strong so far in this series and remember their 3 post-season defeats have come by 5 and 6 and 7 points and one of those was in OT. This team getting 6 points against a team they are clearly superior to especially when you consider the Nuggets have NO pressure here makes them a VERY dangerous dog in this spot. All the pressure is on the Lakers. The underdog has a great shot at the upset here but certainly the Nuggets should at least do enough for the cover the way I see this one unfolding! 10* DENVER +6

NBA Friday Miami Heat +9 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - Boston might bounce back and win this game but I am still going to challenge them to win big after we rode Miami in game one to a solid outright upset win. The fact is the Celtics got past a mediocre Atlanta team and a dysfunctional soft weak 76ers team to get to this point. They are facing a real team now in Miami that is also so well coached. The fact is the Celtics are coached by 34 year-old Mazzulla and I think this is the series where his lack of high-level experience is finally going to be exploited. The Hawks did not have the talent to beat this Celtics team. The 76ers did not have the heart or the coaching ability (yes Doc Rivers deserved blame too) to get past Boston as the talent went to waste. This Heat team has talent and hunger and an X-factor in Jimmy Butler as he continues to be playoff Jimmy in this post-season. More of the same here. Give me the points against a Boston team that is 8-10 SU last 18 home games. This team can't even win a good percentage of home games come playoff time let alone cover a double digit spread. Grab the big points as the Heat have played 12 post-season games thus far and only 1 was a loss by a double digit margin. MIAMI +9

NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - This is just a typical contrarian play for me. The zig zag theory is in effect here because when the markets zig I prefer to zag. The point being that most will be backing the Lakers here after they fell just short in Game 1 and so most will be looking at the underdog as that is the traditional zig zag approach. However, what I see in this game is that Denver is going to be a very tough match-up for the Lakers and the Nuggets also will have proven to have learned their lesson from Game 1. What I mean by this is that they let the Lakers get back into the game late as Denver blew a massive and comfortable lead they had for much of the game. The Nuggets will not make the same mistake twice and I look for them to win this one big by double digits. DENVER -5.5

NBA Wednesday Miami Heat +8.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics were gift-wrapped this appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals. They faced a Hawks team that barely made the playoffs. Then they faced a 76ers team that has a guy by the name of Embiid that should return his MVP Trophy and the NBA should reissue it to Jokic. The 76ers Embiid and Harden - to lose those final two games and put the stat lines together they had - is absolutely inexcusable. You did not see heart, you did not see effort, you did not see the heart of a champion. Jimmy Butler has that heart and he is the leader of this team. Even battling through injuries they have made it this far because they are also well-coached unlike Doc Rivers running a 3-ring circus in Philly. The point is that this Boston team is not what they used to be, not the same team they were when Brad Stevens was patrolling the sidelines rather than sitting in the front office. They simply ran into a Philly team that has so much talent but was poorly coached and did not show heart and fortitude. Simply put, the Sixers are a joke. The reason that has so much to do with this play is because now Boston runs into a true foe that can battle them all over the floor. Yes they have injuries but these guys play hard and they are gamers and the energy is infectious all over the floor. So the Heat are going to battle hard. I am not saying they win this game or win this series but the Celtics are about to face something they have not yet faced in this post-season. A team that is talented AND well-coached AND scrappy AND hard-working. The Heat have it all and they will be in this game to the final minute the way I see it. Give me these huge points. MIAMI +8.5

NBA Tuesday Denver Nuggets -6 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Game 6 of the Lakers prior series they were hosting Golden State. Take a look at this: Warriors 103, Lakers 75. Now, of course we all know this was not the final score or else there would have been a Game 7 at Golden State and the Lakers would not even be here. But the point is the Lakers won Game 6 despite the Warriors having 28 more FG attempts. Yes LA got to the line a ton but the biggest problem was the Warriors shot horribly from the field. That is not happening here with this Lakers opponent. The Nuggets are rested and ready and are strong. Jamaal Murray is on the injury report as questionable with illness but we also saw that in the final game of the series with the Suns. The fact is that Denver has won 8 of 11 post-season games and 7 of the 8 wins have come by a margin of at least 9 points. The Nuggets are so strong at home and the Lakers 4 post-season losses have all come by double digits and this one will too. DENVER -6

NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers Money Line +230 @ Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - The Celtics have home court here so they are practically being handed their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals by most pundits. However, the road team is actually 7-2 SU in Boston's last 9 games. So you might think that stat is just because the Celtics are so strong on the road but it is NOT just that. Boston has actually lost 3 of last 4 home playoff games. Also, the Celtics are only at .500 (straight up!) in their last 20 home post-season games! That said, the ability to get even BETTER than 2 to 1 odds on the Sixers to surprise in this game is just too good to pass up! Many think Philly only goes as Harden goes. However, the 76ers won Game 5 by DOUBLE DIGITS despite Harden making only 4 field goals and just 1 from deep! He did not have a big scoring game yet Philly won the game big and that was here in Boston. Embiid dominated, Maxey had a huge game, Harris was solid in that one and Harden was good but not spectacular. All these guys are capable of stepping up again. Embiid is capable of taking over in this game if he puts his mind to it. Harden could take over and have a massive game and that would make a Sixers win even more likely. but even if Harden does not, I point to the most recent Philly win in this series and that was here in Boston. A key here is confidence and the Sixers have already won here twice in this series. All the pressure is on the Celtics as they are expected to win at home. We all know what often happens when a team is expected to win and they are harboring all the pressure. I look for a loose and relaxed and confident Philly team to shock everyone and get the outright win here! Not only is Boston 1-3 SU last 4 home games, the 76ers are 6-1 SU last 7 road games. They have traveled well and they do it again here. No points needed, the Sixers win this outright. PHILADELPHIA +230

NBA Friday Golden State Warriors Money Line +135 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - Good news for Anthony Davis and the Lakers. Davis got permission from the league to play this game in bubble wrap so he does not get a boo-boo! All kidding aside, a NON-elbow to the head that had Davis in a wheelchair on the way to the locker room is absolutely disgusting to me. It just does not get any softer than that. Especially in the playoffs. If you want out of the game then sit out of the game because your team is getting blown out or because your tired. But don't be so soft with all those theatrics around catching a weak forearm to the side of your head...NOT an elbow and not a heavy hit either. It was players going for a rebound and it happens often in basketball. The point about all this is that it just shows weakness and you never want to show an opponent weakness like that. Especially a hungry team that is a champion and that has new life after that big game 5 win on their home floor. The Warriors now know that it only takes one win and they get Game 7 at home where they have been so strong this season. I know Golden State has struggled on the road this season but they already won Game 5 and Game 7 at Sacramento in that first round series after losing the first two road games against the Kings. So, after losing the first two road games to Lakers, don't be surprised when the Warriors come up strong here on the road in Game 6 with their backs against the wall. They have done it before and they can do it again. GOLDEN STATE +135

NBA Friday New York Knicks +6.5 @ Miami Heat @ 7:30 ET - Waiting has paid off as this line is all the way up to a 6.5 on this one. The Knicks could have closed shop in Game 5 and headed to the golf course but they proved they are hungry and are not done yet. With a win tonight Game 7 is in New York. Wouldn't that be nice? Yes it would and we all saw what the Celtics did at Philly last night in a similar situation. No the Knicks are not the Celtics but the Heat are certainly not the Sixers either! The point is that an outright upset would not surprise me at all here and yet we have 6.5 points to work with here. I'll take it. Two of the Knicks losses in this series have been by single digits and their confidence is back after winning game 5 at home. Jimmy Butler is the best player on the floor for sure but the Knicks have shown they have other players who will step up for them for sure and they are hungry here and will be scrappy on the road after the locker-room incident they had here in Game 4. They want tonight to be different and they have the horses to get it done! NEW YORK KNICKS +6.5

NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets +135 @ Phoenix Suns @ 10 ET - The Nuggets 3 wins in this series have all been by double digits and have come by an average margin of 15 points. Denver was down by only 2 entering the 4th quarter of the Game 3 loss and only down by 3 points with under 30 seconds go in the Game 4 loss. Both those defeats by margins of 7 or less points for Denver and the point is that the Nuggets have certainly had the more dominant victories so far in this series. This is the type of game that the Suns could really use Chris Paul. He is still out though and this is an elimination game and there is good reason this line is as low as a 2.5 on this one. This looks like the game where we finally see a road team get a victory in this series. The Nuggets have momentum and confidence and all the pressure is on the Suns here since they are the ones facing elimination. I do not think this ends well for Phoenix as Nuggets roll again even though they are on the road this time. DNEVER +135

NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers +120 vs Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers are rolling now off B2B wins and have won 7 of 9 games in the post-season including 3 of 4 at home. Boston has won just 4 of last 9 post-season games and they continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. The Celtics just are not as strong nor as cohesive of a group right now. The Sixers certainly know they need to end this thing on their home floor tonight and avoid having to go back up to Boston. The 76ers fortunes turned with that Game 4 overtime win and that changed everything for this team. They are starting to believe and showed in Game 5 at Boston that they can be very very dominant. That said, the momentum and confidence and home floor should all add up to another win for this tough 76ers team tonight as they finally win a playoff series over a long-time nemesis. PHILADELPHIA +120

NBA Wednesday OVER 225.5 in Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - We have all witnessed this stretch of unders in this series since Game 1 snuck over the total. However, Game 2 was one of the worst over beats of all time with 2 points in the final 4 minutes of the game. Then Game 3 fell just short and then Game 4 had a very ugly 4th quarter. I look for this game to be the one where both teams finally put it all together with a ton of scoring. The Lakers going in for the kill and to end this series but Warriors will be pushing hard on their home floor to stay alive. I look for them to take a run and gun approach at home where they are so comfortable. Look for plenty of hot outside shooting from GS on their home floor but they again will struggle to get stops inside and Lakers will score a ton in the paint. OVER 225.5 in Golden State

NBA Wednesday Miami Heat Money Line +145 @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - The Heat want this more and are on a mission with Jimmy Butler playing extremely well but also the role player contributing greatly to the cause. The Knicks just do not have the depth to match the Heat which is especially surprising because Miami has been dealing with injuries. But the Heat are very well coached and the Knicks just can not seem to match the adjustments Miami continues to make on the fly and it is keeping New York off balance. I like to fade the masses and most will be looking at New York at home laying a small number but we do not even need the points here with the other side in my opinion. The Heat want to finish this and get rest for the 2nd round. The Knicks know the handwriting is on the wall as the next game would be at Miami if they even win this game. I think New York is starting to have internal doubt and it will show up on the floor tonight. Keep in mind, the only game the Knicks won in this series was when Jimmy Butler did not play and the Knicks still barely won. Butler is questionable for tonight but all signs points to him playing. Upset time. The Heat are winning the hustle stats and just want it more. This team has that X factor. They are going for it and the Knicks just have not been able to match that. MIAMI +145

NBA Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - This one is all about the line value. The series is tied 2-2. Each team has won on the other teams home floor. Yet home floor is of course a factor in the lines. That said, this is big value with the big points here. The Sixers got that huge win in Game 4 as the Game 1 Harden showed up again and simply would not let Philly lose. Of course if the Sixers lost that game they were likely finished as they would have been down 3-1 and would have had to win twice in Boston. They were very close to being in a nearly impossible situation. However, oftentimes one key break like this can lead to a domino effect and now the 76ers could shock here. They have confidence and they have momentum and here we can have a lot of value because of the 7.5 points. We do not need Philly to win outright to cash our ticket and yet the fact is they already won here once and this Celtics team is not as strong as recent seasons. The Sixers have really closed the gap on Boston - finally - and this could be the year they finally get past their nemesis. This year is definitely different as the Celtics won the most recent playoff series by a combined 8 games to 1 but that was with Brad Stevens as their head coach. Now it is 34-year old Joe Mazzulla. The Sixers might find a way tonight for the SU but, either way, I am not expecting much of a margin in this game and this one should down to the wire. Yes I know Embiid is questionable but I can't see him missing a game of this magnitude. PHILADELPHIA +7.5

NBA Monday Golden State Warriors Money Line +135 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - Golden State is going to have to win a game at LA if they want to win this series. After the shocking Game 1 upset, the Warriors then blasted the Lakers in Game 2. However, after that big win, the Warriors then blew an early double digit lead versus LA in Game 3 and got blasted from the 2nd quarter onward. The Warriors lost the game by 30 but actually had 11 more shots from the field. The difference in the game was the Lakers shot nearly 50% from downtown while the Warriors were held under 30% from deep. If you flip flop those percentages and then apply it to the 3 point attempts of each team it translates to the Warriors winning Game 3 by 15 points instead of losing it by 30. The point is that we now have some value with Golden State based on those unusual results Saturday. The Warriors were stronger on the boards and in terms of points in the paint in Game 3 and I expect another big effort here as this is a key game for GS to avoid the dreaded 3-1 hole. Look for them to be successful in avoiding it and so I am passing on the 3 points and grabbing the plus money here. GOLDEN STATE +135

NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - This is it for Philly for all intents and purposes. If they lose this game they are down 3 games to 1 and would have to win twice at Boston to win this series. Basically this game is about as must-win as it gets without truly being an elimination game. Now, of course, just because a team needs to win does not mean it will win. However, the motivation and hunger and desire and home court edge all are with Philadelphia in this one. Also, a nice angle supports this play as Philly enters this game off B2B losses after winning 5 straight games to open up the post-season. Note that you have to go all the way back to October to find the last time Philly entered a home game off consecutive losses and did not win the game. Indeed, from late October onward, the 76ers are a PERFECT 5-0 SU when they are at home and are entering the game on a losing streak of at least 2 games. Those 5 wins were by an average margin of 11 points per game and all 5 of them were by at least 8 points. However, the money line on this game is only in the +120 range and we can get as much as +3 with the spread currently so I am going to suggest grabbing the points just in case Philly falls just short here. However, I absolutely expect they are going to get another win here and improve to 6-0 SU in this situation! PHILADELPHIA +3

NBA Saturday Golden State Warriors Money Line +135 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - The Warriors shot extremely well in Game Two and they won't shoot that well again here. However, they also won that game by 27 points and we don't need a big win, we just need any win here. I am not taking the points as we will not need them. There is a reason that the Warriors are such a small road dog here even though they had such a rotten season on the road. Keep in mind, it is now playoff time and, when the chips were down, they did what they had to do and they beat the Kings not once but TWICE on the road. So here they are looking to make it 3 straight road wins but public bettors are going to be all over the Lakers laying a short number at home. I smell a fishy line here and I love Golden State in this spot. Keep in mind the Warriors also shot well in Game 1 against the Lakers too. So Game 2 might have been excessive but it was not necessarily a fluke. They Warriors are hot right now and playing with confidence as they also have won B2B road games. The only reason they lost Game 1 was because they got outscored by 20 points at the free throw line. So they should be up 2-0 in this series. Instead it is tied 1-1 but, after tonight, they'll have that series lead they wanted. GOLDEN STATE +135

NBA Saturday New York Knicks Money Line +150 @ Miami Heat @ 3:30 ET - The Knicks are dominating the rebounding battle so far in this series. The series is tied 1-1 but New York would already be up 2-0 if they had just shot better in Game 1. In the first game of this series the Knicks made just 60% from the free throw line and 20% from 3-point land and that was the difference in the game. Miami won that game by 7 but they outscored them by 11 from free throw line and 18 from three point line and that is 29 point variance right there. I like fading the masses and you know folks are going to be lined up on the Heat here because they are off a loss and now back on their home floor. NEW YORK KNICKS +150

NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers Money Line +120 vs Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - Philadelphia is 8-1 SU the last 9 times they have been at home and coming off a loss. They did not just lose Game 2 either. The 76ers got absolutely thrashed in Game 2. The Sixers will respond huge here as that is their first loss of the post-season and it was ugly. The Celtics are just 10-10 SU in last 20 road games. We could get up to 2.5 points here though 2 seems to be the dominant number and I don't think we'll need any points. I am grabbing the plus money return on the money line. Look for Philly to improve to 9-1 (90%) SU the last 10 times they have entered a home game off a loss. PHILADELPHIA +120

NBA Thursday OVER 227 in Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9 ET - The Game One match-up went over the total despite having only 45 points scored in the 4th quarter. The Game One match-up went over the total despite Warriors scoring only 5 points from the free throw line. Remember, they are the home team and should get a few more calls here than that unusual result at home in the loss. Game One went over the total despite the Lakers hitting only 6 of 25 from three point land. So, the point is, we should see this one get into at least the 230s when you consider numbers like those. I am sure the Warriors are going to bounce back after that home loss and Curry should have a huge game. Also, I am sure that the Lakers are going to continue to dominate in terms of getting a lot of inside scoring. I feel each team has confidence in a strategy on offense that their opponent simply can not stop! OVER 227 in Golden State

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +10 @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - When I played Philly in Game One I definitely did not expect them to win outright. However, now that they did this really has everyone lining up on Boston here. In the traditional zig-zag theory of handicapping, when the markets zig I like to zag. So, the point is, this is a bit of a contrarian play but I am confident the 76ers will stay within this inflated number here. The Celtics have not been the same team defensively recently as evident in the Hawks series. Also, as mentioned in my Game One write-up: the 76ers are without Embiid most likely in Game 2 of this series. However, they did play well without him this season. Also, getting double digits is a lot of points when you are a team as strong as Philadelphia is. The Sixers also still have a big rest edge here as they quickly dispatched of the Nets. Remember that also including winning the clinching Game 4 at Brooklyn and without Embiid. The Celtics, on the other hand, had to fight hard to get past Atlanta. The Hawks were scrappy with Boston in the first round. I am not saying Philly wins this outright of course. But I am saying they have enough edges to keep this margin single digits throughout the match-up. This should be quite a battle as the Sixers are better than people realize even when Embiid is not on the floor. So I am sure Harden will not have such a big game in this one like he did in Game One but others are certainly capable of huge performances too. This team about much more than just Embiid. Also, the Celtics never led Game One by more than 12 points. Just so much value with the big points here the way I see it. 10* PHILADELPHIA +10

NBA Tuesday Miami Heat +6.5 @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - This is too many points the way I see it. The Heat have Jimmy Butler listed as questionable for this one but I see no way he will not play here. Also, the Knicks do have Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson both listed as questionable on their report. It is not like New York is 100 percent healthy. As for Miami they have been missing guys for awhile and yet still others have stepped up and I look for them to continue to do. I grabbed the money line in Game 1 of this series in Miami's upset and was happy to get the bigger payback but this time I feel the Knicks might scratch out a tight win and so the value is with the points in this one. As I mentioned in my Game 1 write-up, "The Knicks just beat Cleveland. However, the Cavaliers had not even been in the playoffs for 5 years. Now New York faces a real playoff team. The Heat are in the post-season for the 4th straight year. They have been to the NBA Finals once and the Conference Finals twice in the past 3 seasons alone. They just beat a Bucks team that not only had a fantastic regular season, they have a great recent playoff reputation as well with 7 straight playoff appearances and also a recent NBA Championship. The Heat lost guys to injury and it did not matter. The key is that it was NOT just about Jimmy Butler either. Yes he is the star but other guys have stepped up. If these guys can beat the Bucks and score on them like they did, you know the Knicks are going to have to really amp up their offensive game to have a chance in this series. New York averaged 100 ppg in the 5 games of the series with the Cavs." All of the above considered, getting about a half-dozen points to work with here is a great value for us. MIAMI +6.5

NBA Monday Phoenix Suns +165 @ Denver Nuggets @ 10:05 ET - The Suns lost Game 1 by 18 points. It was a disastrous 2nd quarter - lost the period by 18 points - that was the difference in the game. Well that plus the fact that Denver outscored Phoenix by 27 points from 3-point land. Make no mistake though, the Nuggets were the right side in Game 1 and they did get the job done. However, I love Phoenix on the money line in this bounce back spot in Game 2. Note that Phoenix had won 11 of 14 games before the loss at Denver in Game 1. The Nuggets were 6-6 last 12 games before that big Game 1 win. They looked great in that game for sure but the Suns will make adjustments in Game 2 and they are an uber-talented team. As noted in my Game 1 write-up, I also like the fact that Phoenix beat the Clippers to get here, even though Kawhi missed much of the series whereas the Nuggets took on a dysfunctional Timberwolves team in round one. The right adjustments will be made here and the road team gets it done outright. No points needed. Grab the line value. PHOENIX +165

NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - 76ers are without Embiid most likely in Game 1 of this series. However, they did play well without him this season. Also, getting double digits is a lot of points when you are a team as strong as Philadelphia is. The Sixers also have a big rest edge here as they quickly dispatched of the Nets. Remember that also including winning the clinching Game 4 at Brooklyn and without Embiid. The Celtics, on the other hand, had to fight hard to get past Atlanta. The Hawks were scrappy with Boston in the first round. I am not saying Philly wins this outright of course. But I am saying they have enough edges to keep this margin single digits throughout the match-up. This should be quite a battle as the Sixers are better than people realize even when Embiid is not on the floor. 10* PHILADELPHIA +10.5

NBA Sunday Sacramento Kings -1.5 or money line vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:30 ET - The Warriors had their chance in Game 6. They got blown out. That is really an inexcusable loss and one that, no matter who you are, is tough to bounce back from. This is particularly true for a Golden State team that played so poorly outside of their own arena this season. That said, tremendous line value here with a resurgent and confident Kings team on their home floor. Remember they won the first two games of this series at home but then Sacramento lost a key game 5 and that should have been it for them. Instead they dug deep and got the win in Game 6 and turned back to their defense which had keyed them in the first two games also. That said, they are sure to be relentless on defense in this one with a chance to get a huge win in front of their own fans to advance to the 2nd round. SACRAMENTO -1.5 or money line